WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate change influences

  1. How does climate change influence Arctic mercury?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Gary A; Macdonald, Robie W; Outridge, Peter M; Wilson, Simon; Chételat, John; Cole, Amanda; Hintelmann, Holger; Loseto, Lisa L; Steffen, Alexandra; Wang, Feiyue; Zdanowicz, Christian

    2012-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that climate change is already having significant impacts on many aspects of transport pathways, speciation and cycling of mercury within Arctic ecosystems. For example, the extensive loss of sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean and the concurrent shift from greater proportions of perennial to annual types have been shown to promote changes in primary productivity, shift foodweb structures, alter mercury methylation and demethylation rates, and influence mercury distribution and transport across the ocean-sea-ice-atmosphere interface (bottom-up processes). In addition, changes in animal social behavior associated with changing sea-ice regimes can affect dietary exposure to mercury (top-down processes). In this review, we address these and other possible ramifications of climate variability on mercury cycling, processes and exposure by applying recent literature to the following nine questions; 1) What impact has climate change had on Arctic physical characteristics and processes? 2) How do rising temperatures affect atmospheric mercury chemistry? 3) Will a decrease in sea-ice coverage have an impact on the amount of atmospheric mercury deposited to or emitted from the Arctic Ocean, and if so, how? 4) Does climate affect air-surface mercury flux, and riverine mercury fluxes, in Arctic freshwater and terrestrial systems, and if so, how? 5) How does climate change affect mercury methylation/demethylation in different compartments in the Arctic Ocean and freshwater systems? 6) How will climate change alter the structure and dynamics of freshwater food webs, and thereby affect the bioaccumulation of mercury? 7) How will climate change alter the structure and dynamics of marine food webs, and thereby affect the bioaccumulation of marine mercury? 8) What are the likely mercury emissions from melting glaciers and thawing permafrost under climate change scenarios? and 9) What can be learned from current mass balance inventories of mercury in the Arctic? The

  2. Narrative Style Influences Citation Frequency in Climate Change Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hillier, Ann; Kelly, Ryan P; Klinger, Terrie

    2016-01-01

    Peer-reviewed publications focusing on climate change are growing exponentially with the consequence that the uptake and influence of individual papers varies greatly. Here, we derive metrics of narrativity from psychology and literary theory, and use these metrics to test the hypothesis that more narrative climate change writing is more likely to be influential, using citation frequency as a proxy for influence. From a sample of 732 scientific abstracts drawn from the climate change literature, we find that articles with more narrative abstracts are cited more often. This effect is closely associated with journal identity: higher-impact journals tend to feature more narrative articles, and these articles tend to be cited more often. These results suggest that writing in a more narrative style increases the uptake and influence of articles in climate literature, and perhaps in scientific literature more broadly.

  3. Visiting a climate-influenced national park: the stability of climate change perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brownlee, Matthew Tyler James; Hallo, Jeffrey C; Wright, Brett A; Moore, Dewayne; Powell, Robert B

    2013-11-01

    Understanding perceptions of global environmental issues, such as climate change, can help inform resource management, policy development, and communication with constituents. Although a considerable amount of research documents citizens' perceptions of climate change, few have investigated how interactions with climate-impacted parks and protected areas influence these perceptions, and consequently elements of environmental management. Using a mixed methods Instrument Development Approach, the researchers examined the stability of park visitors' (N = 429) climate change perceptions during a daylong interaction with climate-sensitive and influenced resources at Kenai Fjords National Park in Alaska. Results indicate that global-level beliefs about climate change remained relatively stable during a park experience, but perceptions about climate change at the park-level (e.g., impacts) appeared more malleable. Findings also revealed the type of park experience (terrestrial vs. marine) can influence the degree of change in visitors' perceptions. Implications for communication, outreach, and park management are discussed.

  4. Climate change impact on a groundwater-influenced hillslope ecosystem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brolsma, R.J.; Vliet, van M.T.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the effect of climate change on a groundwater-influenced ecosystem on a hill slope consisting of two vegetation types, one adapted to wet and one adapted to dry soil conditions. The individual effects of changes in precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration

  5. Climate change impact on a groundwater-influenced hillslope ecosystem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brolsma, R.J.; Vliet, M.T.H. van; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the effect of climate change on a groundwater‐influenced ecosystem on a hill slope consisting of two vegetation types, one adapted to wet and one adapted to dry soil conditions. The individual effects of changes in precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration

  6. The influence of vegetation dynamics on anthropogenic climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Port

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, vegetation-climate and vegetation-carbon cycle interactions during anthropogenic climate change are assessed by using the Earth System Model MPI ESM including a module for vegetation dynamics. We assume anthropogenic CO2 emissions according to the RCP 8.5 scenario in the period from 1850 to 2120 and shut them down afterwards to evaluate the equilibrium response of the Earth System by 2300.

    Our results suggest that vegetation dynamics have a considerable influence on the changing global and regional climate. In the simulations, global mean tree cover extends by 2300 due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and global warming. Thus, land carbon uptake is higher and atmospheric CO2 concentration is lower by about 40 ppm when considering dynamic vegetation compared to a static pre-industrial vegetation cover. The reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration is equivalent to a lower global mean temperature. Moreover, biogeophysical effects of vegetation cover shifts influence the climate on a regional scale. Expanded tree cover in the northern high latitudes results in a reduced albedo and additional warming. In the Amazon region, declined tree cover causes a higher temperature as evapotranspiration is reduced. In total, we find that vegetation dynamics have a slight attenuating effect on global climate change as the global climate cools by 0.22 K in 2300 due to natural vegetation cover shifts.

  7. Influence of SST biases on future climate change projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ashfaq, Moetasim [Stanford University, Department of Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford, CA (United States); Purdue University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, West Lafayette, IN (United States); Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Skinner, Christopher B. [Stanford University, Department of Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford, CA (United States); Purdue University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, West Lafayette, IN (United States); Diffenbaugh, Noah S. [Stanford University, Department of Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford, CA (United States); Purdue University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, West Lafayette, IN (United States); Stanford University, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford, CA (United States)

    2011-04-15

    We use a quantile-based bias correction technique and a multi-member ensemble of the atmospheric component of NCAR CCSM3 (CAM3) simulations to investigate the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) biases on future climate change projections. The simulations, which cover 1977-1999 in the historical period and 2077-2099 in the future (A1B) period, use the CCSM3-generated SSTs as prescribed boundary conditions. Bias correction is applied to the monthly time-series of SSTs so that the simulated changes in SST mean and variability are preserved. Our comparison of CAM3 simulations with and without SST correction shows that the SST biases affect the precipitation distribution in CAM3 over many regions by introducing errors in atmospheric moisture content and upper-level (lower-level) divergence (convergence). Also, bias correction leads to significantly different precipitation and surface temperature changes over many oceanic and terrestrial regions (predominantly in the tropics) in response to the future anthropogenic increases in greenhouse forcing. The differences in the precipitation response from SST bias correction occur both in the mean and the percent change, and are independent of the ocean-atmosphere coupling. Many of these differences are comparable to or larger than the spread of future precipitation changes across the CMIP3 ensemble. Such biases can affect the simulated terrestrial feedbacks and thermohaline circulations in coupled climate model integrations through changes in the hydrological cycle and ocean salinity. Moreover, biases in CCSM3-generated SSTs are generally similar to the biases in CMIP3 ensemble mean SSTs, suggesting that other GCMs may display a similar sensitivity of projected climate change to SST errors. These results help to quantify the influence of climate model biases on the simulated climate change, and therefore should inform the effort to further develop approaches for reliable climate change projection. (orig.)

  8. INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGES ON WATER RESOURCES IN MOLDOVA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Violeta Ivanov

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims to analyze the current state of affairs with water resources in Moldova, the challenges it faces for its national human and economic development, having in mind that the water resources are quite limited in Moldova, which encounters pollution, degradation influenced by climate change and unwise human activity to their biodiversity and ecosystems, availability and accessibility. It also attempts to highlight the relationship between climate change and water resources in Moldova, which has adverse effects on both environment and people’s health, and raise significant hurdles to the international, regional and sectoral development.

  9. THE CLIMATIC CHANGES INFLUENCE ON ROMANIAN AGRICULTURE SECTOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GAVRILETEA MARIUS DAN

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays the entire world is confronting with different serious problems: economic crises, climate changes, increase of the population and many others. The accelerate rhythm of climate changes in the last years strongly affects the agriculture system. In this paper we will focus on the evolution of mean temperature and its effects on agriculture. The continuously global warming generates extreme meteorological phenomena, especially floods and heavy rains that destroy the crops. We will also analyze the existing situation in Romania related to agriculture risks (influenced by meteorological phenomena, the modalities that the Romanian Government and the insurance companies come to help the agriculture companies to decrease the exposure to specific risks. In conclusion, we will present pertinent solution for agriculture system in order to manage the delicate problems caused by climatic changes in Romania.

  10. Storm track processes and the opposing influences of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, T. A.; Baldwin, M.; Barnes, E. A.; Caballero, R.; Garfinkel, C. I.; Hwang, Y.-T.; Li, C.; O'Gorman, P. A.; Rivière, G.; Simpson, I. R.; Voigt, A.

    2016-09-01

    Extratropical cyclones are storm systems that are observed to travel preferentially within confined regions known as storm tracks. They contribute to precipitation, wind and temperature extremes in mid-latitudes. Cyclones tend to form where surface temperature gradients are large, and the jet stream influences their speed and direction of travel. Storm tracks shape the global climate through transport of energy and momentum. The intensity and location of storm tracks varies seasonally, and in response to other natural variations, such as changes in tropical sea surface temperature. A hierarchy of numerical models of the atmosphere-ocean system -- from highly idealized to comprehensive -- has been used to study and predict responses of storm tracks to anthropogenic climate change. The future position and intensity of storm tracks depend on processes that alter temperature gradients. However, different processes can have opposing influences on temperature gradients, which leads to a tug of war on storm track responses and makes future projections more difficult. For example, as climate warms, surface shortwave cloud radiative changes increase the Equator-to-pole temperature gradient, but at the same time, longwave cloud radiative changes reduce this gradient. Future progress depends on understanding and accurately quantifying the relative influence of such processes on the storm tracks.

  11. The Biasing Influence of Worldview on Climate Change Attitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, J.

    2012-12-01

    It is well established that political ideology has a strong influence on public opinion about climate change. According to one survey (Leiserowitz et al 2011), the percentage of Democrats accepting that climate change is happening is over double the percentage of Tea Partiers. There is also evidence of ideologically driven belief polarization, where two people receiving the same evidence update their beliefs in opposite direction. Presenting scientific evidence can result in a backfire effect where conservatives become more sceptical of climate change. It is possible to model (and hence better understand) the backfire effect using Bayesian Networks which simulate belief updating using Bayes Law. In this model, trust in science is the driving force behind polarization and worldview is the knob that controls trust. One consequence of this model is that attempts to increase trust in science are expected to be largely ineffective for conservatives. It suggests that a potentially constructive approach is to reduce the biasing influence of worldview by affirming conservative values while presenting climate messages. Experimental data comparing the effectiveness of various interventions are presented and discussed in the context of the Bayesian Network model.

  12. The influence of vegetation dynamics on anthropogenic climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Port

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study, vegetation–climate and vegetation–carbon cycle interactions during anthropogenic climate change are assessed by using the Earth System Model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI ESM that includes vegetation dynamics and an interactive carbon cycle. We assume anthropogenic CO2 emissions according to the RCP 8.5 scenario in the time period from 1850 to 2120. For the time after 2120, we assume zero emissions to evaluate the response of the stabilising Earth System by 2300.

    Our results suggest that vegetation dynamics have a considerable influence on the changing global and regional climate. In the simulations, global mean tree cover extends by 2300 due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and global warming. Thus, land carbon uptake is higher and atmospheric CO2 concentration is lower by about 40 ppm when considering dynamic vegetation compared to the static pre-industrial vegetation cover. The reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration is equivalent to a lower global mean temperature. Moreover, biogeophysical effects of vegetation cover shifts influence the climate on a regional scale. Expanded tree cover in the northern high latitudes results in a reduced albedo and additional warming. In the Amazon region, declined tree cover causes a regional warming due to reduced evapotranspiration. As a net effect, vegetation dynamics have a slight attenuating effect on global climate change as the global climate cools by 0.22 K due to natural vegetation cover shifts in 2300.

  13. The Influence and the Countermeasures about Water Resources in Northwest of Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    [Objective] The aim was to study the influences and countermeasures of climate changes on the water resources in northwest.[Method] The influences of climate changes on water resources in northwest part were discussed.Considering to the demand of water,corresponding countermeasures were proposed.[Result] Though there were distinct regional differences about the influences of climate changes on water resources in northwest part,the positive influences were larger than negative influences in general;because o...

  14. What influences climate and glacier change in southwestern China?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasunari, Teppei J.

    2011-12-01

    The subject of climate change in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and Himalayas has taken on increasing importance because of the availability of water resources from their mountain glaciers (Immerzeel et al 2010). Many of the glaciers over these regions have been retreating, while some are advancing and stable (Yao et al 2004, Scherler et al 2011). Other studies report that some glaciers in the Himalayas show acceleration of their shrinkage (e.g., Fujita and Nuimura 2011). However, the causes of glacier melting are still difficult to grasp because of the complexity of climatic change and its influence on glacier issues. Despite this, it is vital that we pursue further study to enable future predictions of glacier changes. The paper entitled 'Climate and glacier change in southwestern China during the past several decades' by Li et al (2011) provided carefully analyzed, quality controlled, long-term data on atmospheric temperature and precipitation during the period 1961-2008. The data were obtained from 111 Chinese stations. The researchers performed systematic analyses of temperature and precipitation over the whole southwestern Chinese domain. They discussed those changes in terms of other meteorological components such as atmospheric circulation patterns, radiation and altitude difference, and then showed how these factors could contribute to climate and glacier changes in the region. Air temperature and precipitation are strongly associated with glacier mass balance because of heat balance and the addition of mass when it snows. Temperature warming trends over many places in southwestern China were unequivocally dominant in all seasons and at higher altitudes. This indicates that the heat contribution to the glaciers has been increasing. On the other hand, precipitation has a wider variability in time and space. It is more difficult to clearly understand the effect of precipitation on the climate and glacier melting characteristics in the whole of southwestern China

  15. Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

    2016-08-01

    Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

  16. Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

    2016-08-01

    Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

  17. Does the weather influence public opinion about climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, S. D.; McDaniel, J.

    2010-12-01

    Public opinion in North America about the science of anthropogenic climate change and the motivation for policy action has been variable over the past twenty years. The trends in public opinion over time have been attributed the general lack of pressing public concern about climate change to a range of political, economic and psychological factors. One driving force behind the variability in polling data from year to year may be the weather itself. The difference between what we “expect” - the climate - and what we “get” - the weather - can be a major source of confusion and obfuscation in the public discourse about climate change. For example, reaction to moderate global temperatures in 2007 and 2008 may have helped prompt the spread of a “global cooling” meme in the public and the news media. At the same time, a decrease in the belief in the science of climate change and the need for action has been noted in opinion polls. This study analyzes the relationship between public opinion about climate change and the weather in the U.S. since the mid-1980s using historical polling data from several major organizations (e.g. Gallup, Pew, Harris Interactive, ABC News), historical monthly air temperature (NCDC) and a survey of opinion articles from major U.S. newspapers (Washington Post, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Houston Chronicle, USA Today). Seasonal and annual monthly temperature anomalies for the northeastern U.S and the continental U.S are compared with available national opinion data for three general categories of questions: i) Is the climate warming?, ii) Is the observed warming due to human activity?, and iii) Are you concerned about climate change? The variability in temperature and public opinion over time is also compared with the variability in the fraction of opinion articles in the newspapers (n ~ 7000) which express general agreement or disagreement with IPCC Summary for Policymakers consensus statements on climate change (“most of

  18. The influence of climate change on Tanzania's hydropower sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Boehlert, Brent; Meijer, Karen; Schellekens, Jaap; Magnell, Jan-Petter; Helbrink, Jakob; Kassana, Leonard; Liden, Rikard

    2015-04-01

    Economic costs induced by current climate variability are large for Tanzania and may further increase due to future climate change. The Tanzanian National Climate Change Strategy addressed the need for stabilization of hydropower generation and strengthening of water resources management. Increased hydropower generation can contribute to sustainable use of energy resources and stabilization of the national electricity grid. To support Tanzania the World Bank financed this study in which the impact of climate change on the water resources and related hydropower generation capacity of Tanzania is assessed. To this end an ensemble of 78 GCM projections from both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 datasets was bias-corrected and down-scaled to 0.5 degrees resolution following the BCSD technique using the Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset as a reference. To quantify the hydrological impacts of climate change by 2035 the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was set-up for Tanzania at a resolution of 3 minutes and run with all 78 GCM datasets. From the full set of projections a probable (median) and worst case scenario (95th percentile) were selected based upon (1) the country average Climate Moisture Index and (2) discharge statistics of relevance to hydropower generation. Although precipitation from the Princeton dataset shows deviations from local station measurements and the global hydrological model does not perfectly reproduce local scale hydrographs, the main discharge characteristics and precipitation patterns are represented well. The modeled natural river flows were adjusted for water demand and irrigation within the water resources model RIBASIM (both historical values and future scenarios). Potential hydropower capacity was assessed with the power market simulation model PoMo-C that considers both reservoir inflows obtained from RIBASIM and overall electricity generation costs. Results of the study show that climate change is unlikely to negatively affect the

  19. Influence of Climate Change on River Discharge in Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert A. Goler

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The effect of climate change on the river discharge characteristics in four catchment basins within Austria is investigated using a hydrological model. Input for the model are daily climate data generated from three regional climate models (RCMs over the time period 1951–2100 using the A1B emission scenario. Due to the complex terrain of the basins, the climate data has been downscaled to a resolution of 1km×1km$1\\,\\text{km}\\times1\\,\\text{km}$. The hydrological model includes processes such as meltwater from snow and glaciers; surface, subsurface, and groundwater flows; and evapotranspiration. The modelling results show that, although only one RCM exhibits a significant reduction in the mean annual discharge towards the end of the 21st century, all RCMs exhibit significant changes in the seasonal distribution of the discharge. In particular, for basins whose discharge is dependent on water stored as snow, there will be a shift in the time of maximum river discharge to earlier in the year as the snow and ice melt earlier. During the winter months the discharge is forecasted to be higher than at present, which would lead to the number of days of low discharge being reduced. However, the earlier snow melt means that the available water for the summer months will be reduced, leading to lower discharges than present, and thus an increase in the number of low discharge days.

  20. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate......This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...

  1. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  2. Farmers' Perceived Risks of Climate Change and Influencing Factors: A Study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Dang, Hoa; Li, Elton; Nuberg, Ian; Bruwer, Johan

    2014-08-01

    Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.

  3. Modeling the influence of climate change on watershed systems: Adaptation through targeted practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudula, John; Randhir, Timothy O.

    2016-10-01

    Climate change may influence hydrologic processes of watersheds (IPCC, 2013) and increased runoff may cause flooding, eroded stream banks, widening of stream channels, increased pollutant loading, and consequently impairment of aquatic life. The goal of this study was to quantify the potential impacts of climate change on watershed hydrologic processes and to evaluate scale and effectiveness of management practices for adaptation. We simulate baseline watershed conditions using the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) simulation model to examine the possible effects of changing climate on watershed processes. We also simulate the effects of adaptation and mitigation through specific best management strategies for various climatic scenarios. With continuing low-flow conditions and vulnerability to climate change, the Ipswich watershed is the focus of this study. We quantify fluxes in runoff, evapotranspiration, infiltration, sediment load, and nutrient concentrations under baseline and climate change scenarios (near and far future). We model adaptation options for mitigating climate effects on watershed processes using bioretention/raingarden Best Management Practices (BMPs). It was observed that climate change has a significant impact on watershed runoff and carefully designed and maintained BMPs at subwatershed scale can be effective in mitigating some of the problems related to stormwater runoff. Policy options include implementation of BMPs through education and incentives for scale-dependent and site specific bioretention units/raingardens to increase the resilience of the watershed system to current and future climate change.

  4. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathwa

  5. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... events, such as hurricanes and wildfires. These can cause death, injuries, stress, and mental health problems. Researchers are studying the best ways to lessen climate change and reduce its impact on our health. NIH: ...

  6. Geophysical features influence the climate change sensitivity of northern Wisconsin pine and oak forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tweiten, Michael A; Calcote, Randy R; Lynch, Elizabeth A; Hotchkiss, Sara C; Schuurman, Gregor W

    2015-10-01

    Landscape-scale vulnerability assessment from multiple sources, including paleoecological site histories, can inform climate change adaptation. We used an array of lake sediment pollen and charcoal records to determine how soils and landscape factors influenced the variability of forest composition change over the past 2000 years. The forests in this study are located in northwestern Wisconsin on a sandy glacial outwash plain. Soils and local climate vary across the study area. We used the Natural Resource Conservation Service's Soil Survey Geographic soil database and published fire histories to characterize differences in soils and fire history around each lake site. Individual site histories differed in two metrics of past vegetation dynamics: the extent to which white pine (Pinus strobus) increased during the Little Ice Age (LIA) climate period and the volatility in the rate of change between samples at 50-120 yr intervals. Greater increases of white pine during the LIA occurred on sites with less sandy soils (R² = 0.45, P climate (R² = 0.55, P change between samples was positively associated with LIA fire frequency (R² = 0.41, P change and rate-of-change volatility were associated with higher fire frequency. Over longer (multi-centennial) time frames, forest composition change, especially increased white pine, shifted most in sites with more soil moisture. Our results show that responsiveness of forest composition to climate change was influenced by soils, local climate, and fire. The anticipated climatic changes in the next century will not produce the same community dynamics on the same soil types as in the past, but understanding past dynamics and relationships can help us assess how novel factors and combinations of factors in the future may influence various site types. Our results support climate change adaptation efforts to monitor and conserve the landscape's full range of geophysical features.

  7. Climatic changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    According to Cleo Paskal climatic changes are environmental changes. They are global, but their impact is local, and manifests them selves in the landscape, in our cities, in open urban spaces, and in everyday life. The landscape and open public spaces will in many cases be the sites where...... measurements to handle climatic changes will be positioned and enacted. Measurements taken are mostly adaptive or aimed to secure and protect existing values, buildings, infrastructure etc., but will in many cases also affects functions, meaning and peoples identification with the landscape and the open urban...... be addressed in order to develop and support social sustainability and identification. This paper explore and discuss how the handling of climatic changes in landscape and open urban spaces might hold a potential for them to become common goods....

  8. Influence of climate change on the water resources in an alpine region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Toffol, S; Engelhard, C; Rauch, W

    2008-01-01

    It is widely accepted that the global warming will impact on water resources. This study investigates the possible influence of climate change on the water resources in an alpine region. A description of the actual situation with emphasis on the water resources from the one side and on the water consuming factors, here called stressors, is given. The probable effects of climate change in the region and their influence on its water resources are then described. The main outcome is that in the analysed region the climate change will rather have positive influence on the water balance by inducing higher precipitations during the rivers' natural low flow period (winter). This outcome contradicts many common predictions, however, this due to the specifics induced by the alpine nature of the catchment.

  9. Influences of recent climate change and human activities on water storage variations in Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Haijun; Chen, Yaning

    2017-01-01

    Terrestrial water storage (TWS) change is an indicator of climate change. Therefore, it is helpful to understand how climate change impacts water systems. In this study, the influence of climate change on TWS in Central Asia over the past decade was analyzed using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellites and Climatic Research Unit datasets. Results indicate that TWS experienced a decreasing trend in Central Asia from 2003 to 2013 at a rate of -4.44 ± 2.2 mm/a, and that the maximum positive anomaly for TWS (46 mm) occurred in July 2005, while the minimum negative anomaly (-32.5 mm) occurred in March 2008-August 2009. The decreasing trend of TWS in northern Central Asia (-3.86 ± 0.63 mm/a) is mainly attributed to soil moisture storage depletion, which is driven primarily by the increase in evapotranspiration. In the mountainous regions, climate change exerted an influence on TWS by affecting glaciers and snow cover change. However, human activities are now the dominant factor driving the decline of TWS in the Aral Sea region and the northern Tarim River Basin.

  10. [Climate change influences the incidence of arthropod-borne diseases in the Netherlands].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahamat-Langendoen, J C; van Vliet, J A; Reusken, C B E M

    2008-04-12

    Climate change is associated with changes in the occurrence of arthropod-borne diseases. It is difficult to foresee which arthropod-borne diseases will appear in the Netherlands due to climate change. Climate change influences the prevalence of ticks and may lead to a further increase in Lyme disease and an increased risk of the introduction of rickettsioses. With further warming of the climate there is a real possibility of settlement of the mosquito Aedes albopictus and introduction of the sandfly in the Netherlands. Whether this will lead to circulation of micro-organisms transmitted by these vectors (e.g. West Nile virus, Dengue virus, Leishmania) is not clear. Continued vigilance is necessary, even for vector-borne diseases that appear to be less relevant for the Netherlands.

  11. Influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of European cities to flooding during extreme precipitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Høegh Ravn, N.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten;

    In this paper we present a methodology suitable for investigating the relative and combined influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of cities to pluvial flooding. A combined hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing approach enables the quantificatio...... during the past 30 years caused an increase in flood exposure that is comparable to what is expected in the RCP4.5 (+2°C) climate scenario....

  12. Scaling the Problem: How Commercial Interests Have Influenced the U.S. Dialogue on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldman, G. T.; Rogerson, P.

    2012-12-01

    In recent years, corporations and their affiliates have played an increasing role in the national conversation on climate change, with companies weighing in not only on policy debates but also participating in discussions around climate science. A few of these companies in particular have been tremendously influential in dictating how the public understands, or misunderstands, climate science and how the national discourse on climate policy has progressed, or not progressed. To better understand this corporate involvement, we explored the roles that major corporate actors have played during a key time period in 2009 and 2010 when several important climate change policy proposals were being actively debated in the United States. Analyzing multiple venues in which companies engaged in discussion of climate change with different audiences—including the government, shareholders, and the public—we assess the degree to which commercial interests have helped or hindered a science-based public discourse on climate policy in the past decade. Discussion will focus especially on corporations' use of third party organizations, including industry trade groups, think tanks, and others, to exert influence on climate-related policy without accountability.

  13. Changes in Climatic Factors Influencing the Growth Period of Corn in Fengjie County

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiaozhen; MAO; Xinli; MOU; Chen; MA; Jiang; HUANG; Lin; YUAN

    2014-01-01

    Under the background of global climate change,we analyze the change tendency of average temperature and amount of precipitation influencing the corn’s growth period. The results show that from March to August,the monthly temperatures show an upward trend,but the rise is different in different months,and the maximum temperature rise is in May. Precipitation in different months has different trends. Climate change brings about favorable conditions at high altitudes in Fengjie,reduces production due to the temperature drop after the beginning of autumn,and increases the pressure on the corn supply.

  14. Climate change influences on marine infectious diseases: implications for management and society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burge, Colleen A.; Eakin, C. Mark; Friedman, Carolyn S.; Froelich, Brett; Hershberger, Paul K.; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Petes, Laura E.; Prager, Katherine C.; Weil, Ernesto; Willis, Bette L.; Ford, Susan E.; Harvell, C. Drew

    2014-01-01

    Infectious diseases are common in marine environments, but the effects of a changing climate on marine pathogens are not well understood. Here, we focus on reviewing current knowledge about how the climate drives hostpathogen interactions and infectious disease outbreaks. Climate-related impacts on marine diseases are being documented in corals, shellfish, finfish, and humans; these impacts are less clearly linked to other organisms. Oceans and people are inextricably linked, and marine diseases can both directly and indirectly affect human health, livelihoods, and well-being. We recommend an adaptive management approach to better increase the resilience of ocean systems vulnerable to marine diseases in a changing climate. Land-based management methods of quarantining, culling, and vaccinating are not successful in the ocean; therefore, forecasting conditions that lead to outbreaks and designing tools/approaches to influence these conditions may be the best way to manage marine disease.

  15. Human Impacts and Climate Change Influence Nestedness and Modularity in Food-Web and Mutualistic Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazuhiro Takemoto

    Full Text Available Theoretical studies have indicated that nestedness and modularity-non-random structural patterns of ecological networks-influence the stability of ecosystems against perturbations; as such, climate change and human activity, as well as other sources of environmental perturbations, affect the nestedness and modularity of ecological networks. However, the effects of climate change and human activities on ecological networks are poorly understood. Here, we used a spatial analysis approach to examine the effects of climate change and human activities on the structural patterns of food webs and mutualistic networks, and found that ecological network structure is globally affected by climate change and human impacts, in addition to current climate. In pollination networks, for instance, nestedness increased and modularity decreased in response to increased human impacts. Modularity in seed-dispersal networks decreased with temperature change (i.e., warming, whereas food web nestedness increased and modularity declined in response to global warming. Although our findings are preliminary owing to data-analysis limitations, they enhance our understanding of the effects of environmental change on ecological communities.

  16. Sensitivity of worst-case strom surge considering influence of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takayabu, Izuru; Hibino, Kenshi; Sasaki, Hidetaka; Shiogama, Hideo; Mori, Nobuhito; Shibutani, Yoko; Takemi, Tetsuya

    2016-04-01

    There are two standpoints when assessing risk caused by climate change. One is how to prevent disaster. For this purpose, we get probabilistic information of meteorological elements, from enough number of ensemble simulations. Another one is to consider disaster mitigation. For this purpose, we have to use very high resolution sophisticated model to represent a worst case event in detail. If we could use enough computer resources to drive many ensemble runs with very high resolution model, we can handle these all themes in one time. However resources are unfortunately limited in most cases, and we have to select the resolution or the number of simulations if we design the experiment. Applying PGWD (Pseudo Global Warming Downscaling) method is one solution to analyze a worst case event in detail. Here we introduce an example to find climate change influence on the worst case storm-surge, by applying PGWD to a super typhoon Haiyan (Takayabu et al, 2015). 1 km grid WRF model could represent both the intensity and structure of a super typhoon. By adopting PGWD method, we can only estimate the influence of climate change on the development process of the Typhoon. Instead, the changes in genesis could not be estimated. Finally, we drove SU-WAT model (which includes shallow water equation model) to get the signal of storm surge height. The result indicates that the height of the storm surge increased up to 20% owing to these 150 years climate change.

  17. Influence of climate variability versus change at multi-decadal time scales on hydrological extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    Recent studies have shown that rainfall and hydrological extremes do not randomly occur in time, but are subject to multidecadal oscillations. In addition to these oscillations, there are temporal trends due to climate change. Design statistics, such as intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) for extreme rainfall or flow-duration-frequency (QDF) relationships, are affected by both types of temporal changes (short term and long term). This presentation discusses these changes, how they influence water engineering design and decision making, and how this influence can be assessed and taken into account in practice. The multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes were studied based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles. The statistical significance of the oscillations was evaluated by means of a non-parametric bootstrapping method. Oscillations in large scale atmospheric circulation were identified as the main drivers for the temporal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes. They also explain why spatial phase shifts (e.g. north-south variations in Europe) exist between the oscillation highs and lows. Next to the multidecadal climate oscillations, several stations show trends during the most recent decades, which may be attributed to climate change as a result of anthropogenic global warming. Such attribution to anthropogenic global warming is, however, uncertain. It can be done based on simulation results with climate models, but it is shown that the climate model results are too uncertain to enable a clear attribution. Water engineering design statistics, such as extreme rainfall IDF or peak or low flow QDF statistics, obviously are influenced by these temporal variations (oscillations, trends). It is shown in the paper, based on the Brussels 10-minutes rainfall data, that rainfall design values may be about 20% biased or different when based on short rainfall series of 10 to 15 years length, and

  18. Patterns and processes influencing helminth parasites of Arctic coastal communities during climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galaktionov, K V

    2017-03-22

    This review analyses the scarce available data on biodiversity and transmission of helminths in Arctic coastal ecosystems and the potential impact of climate changes on them. The focus is on the helminths of seabirds, dominant parasites in coastal ecosystems. Their fauna in the Arctic is depauperate because of the lack of suitable intermediate hosts and unfavourable conditions for species with free-living larvae. An increasing proportion of crustaceans in the diet of Arctic seabirds would result in a higher infection intensity of cestodes and acanthocephalans, and may also promote the infection of seabirds with non-specific helminths. In this way, the latter may find favourable conditions for colonization of new hosts. Climate changes may alter the composition of the helminth fauna, their infection levels in hosts and ways of transmission in coastal communities. Immigration of boreal invertebrates and fish into Arctic seas may allow the circulation of helminths using them as intermediate hosts. Changing migratory routes of animals would alter the distribution of their parasites, facilitating, in particular, their trans-Arctic transfer. Prolongation of the seasonal 'transmission window' may increase the parasitic load on host populations. Changes in Arctic marine food webs would have an overriding influence on the helminths' circulation. This process may be influenced by the predicted decreased of salinity in Arctic seas, increased storm activity, coastal erosion, ocean acidification, decline of Arctic ice, etc. Greater parasitological research efforts are needed to assess the influence of factors related to Arctic climate change on the transmission of helminths.

  19. Climate Change in Prehistory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burroughs, William James

    2005-06-01

    How did humankind deal with the extreme challenges of the last Ice Age? How have the relatively benign post-Ice Age conditions affected the evolution and spread of humanity across the globe? By setting our genetic history in the context of climate change during prehistory, the origin of many features of our modern world are identified and presented in this illuminating book. It reviews the aspects of our physiology and intellectual development that have been influenced by climatic factors, and how features of our lives - diet, language and the domestication of animals - are also the product of the climate in which we evolved. In short: climate change in prehistory has in many ways made us what we are today. Climate Change in Prehistory weaves together studies of the climate with anthropological, archaeological and historical studies, and will fascinate all those interested in the effects of climate on human development and history.

  20. Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.; Torn, Margaret S.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Thomson, Allison M.; Chini, Louise M.; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter; Hurtt, George; Wise, Marshall A.

    2013-06-01

    Proposed climate mitigation measures do not account for direct biophysical climate impacts of land-use change (LUC), nor do the stabilization targets modeled for the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To examine the significance of such effects on global and regional patterns of climate change, a baseline and alternative scenario of future anthropogenic activity are simulated within the Integrated Earth System Model, which couples the Global Change Assessment Model, Global Land-use Model, and Community Earth System Model. The alternative scenario has high biofuel utilization and approximately 50% less global forest cover compared to the baseline, standard RCP4.5 scenario. Both scenarios stabilize radiative forcing from atmospheric constituents at 4.5 W/m2 by 2100. Thus, differences between their climate predictions quantify the biophysical effects of LUC. Offline radiative transfer and land model simulations are also utilized to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms driving the coupled response. Boreal deforestation is found to strongly influence climate due to increased albedo coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Globally, the alternative scenario yields a 21st century warming trend that is 0.5 °C cooler than baseline, driven by a 1 W/m2 mean decrease in radiative forcing that is distributed unevenly around the globe. Some regions are cooler in the alternative scenario than in 2005. These results demonstrate that neither climate change nor actual radiative forcing are uniquely related to atmospheric forcing targets such as those found in the RCP’s, but rather depend on particulars of the socioeconomic pathways followed to meet each target.

  1. Assessing the Influence of Precipitation on Diurnal Temperature Range Changes: Implications for Climate Change Projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van den Hoof, C.; Garreaud, R.

    2014-12-01

    In this study, we investigate up to what extent the spatial heterogeneity in the projected changes in DTR during the rest of the 21st century (under several emission scenarios) is explained by the regional variability in projected precipitation changes. DTR is indeed a suitable index of climate variability and change [1] and several studies have highlighted the existence of a negative correlation with both the cloud cover and the precipitation rate over land throughout last century [2]. Precipitation reduces DTR mainly by decreasing surface solar radiation through increased cloud cover and by increasing daytime surface evaporative cooling through increased soil moisture content. Whether or not these processes are captured in the current generation of global and regional models is matter of research. To achieve our objective, we make use of the climate projections made available by the CMIP5 project as well as their historical runs, along with reanalysis and station data. At inter-annual timescale, the seasonal mean DTR simulated by an ensemble of CMIP5 models for the last decades shows a negative relationship over land with the simulated precipitation at zero lag. The correlation is globally very strong except during winter at higher latitudes. This corresponds well with the correlations observed in the re-analysis datasets. Some spatial variability in correlation strength is however noticeable between both datasets. Concerning the projected changes, the negative correlation between DTR and precipitation does not hold globally; no correlation or even positive correlations are observed in different climate regions, including Northern South America and Central Europe. Within this study we will further investigate the physical process that could explain this change in correlation sign as well as the reason why positive correlations are rarely observed or simulated at inter-annual timescale under current climate during summer and at lower latitudes during winter. [1] K

  2. How climate change might influence the potential distribution of weed, bushmint (Hyptis suaveolens)?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padalia, Hitendra; Srivastava, Vivek; Kushwaha, S P S

    2015-04-01

    Invasive species and climate change are considered as the most serious global environmental threats. In this study, we investigated the influence of projected global climate change on the potential distribution of one of the world's most successful invader weed, bushmint (Hyptis suaveolens (L.) Poit.). We used spatial data on 20 environmental variables at a grid resolution of 5 km, and 564 presence records of bushmint from its native and introduced range. The climatic profiles of the native and invaded sites were analyzed in a multi-variate space in order to examine the differences in the position of climatic niches. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential distribution of bushmint using presence records from entire range (invaded and native) along with 14 eco-physiologically relevant predictor variables. Subsequently, the trained MaxEnt model was fed with Hadley Centre Coupled Model (HadCM3) climate projections to predict potential distribution of bushmint by the year 2050 under A2a and B2a emission scenarios. MaxEnt predictions were very accurate with an Area Under Curve (AUC) value of 0.95. The results of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) indicated that climatic niche of bushmint on the invaded sites is not entirely similar to its climatic niche in the native range. A vast area spread between 34 ° 02' north and 28 ° 18' south latitudes in tropics was predicted climatically suitable for bushmint. West and middle Africa, tropical southeast Asia, and northern Australia were predicted at high invasion risk. Study indicates enlargement, retreat, or shift across bushmint's invasion range under the influence of climate change. Globally, bushmint's potential distribution might shrink in future with more shrinkage for A2a scenario than B2a. The study outcome has immense potential for undertaking effective preventive/control measures and long-term management strategies for regions/countries, which are at higher risk of bushmint's invasion.

  3. Influence of the management strategy model on estimating water system performance under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francois, Baptiste; Hingray, Benoit; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Hendrickx, Frederic

    2015-04-01

    The performance of water systems used worldwide for the management of water resources is expected to be influenced by future changes in regional climates and water uses. Anticipating possible performance changes of a given system requires a modeling chain simulating its management. Operational management is usually not trivial especially when several conflicting objectives have to be accounted for. Management models are therefore often a crude representation of the real system and they only approximate its performance. Estimated performance changes are expected to depend on the management model used, but this is often not assessed. This communication analyzes the influence of the management strategy representation on the performance of an Alpine reservoir (Serre-Ponçon, South-East of France) for which irrigation supply, hydropower generation and recreational activities are the main objectives. We consider three ways to construct the strategy named as clear-, short- and far-sighted management. They are based on different forecastability degrees of seasonal inflows into the reservoir. The strategies are optimized using a Dynamic Programming algorithm (deterministic for clear-sighted and implicit stochastic for short- and far-sighted). System performance is estimated for an ensemble of future hydro-meteorological projections obtained in the RIWER2030 research project (http://www.lthe.fr/RIWER2030/) from a suite of climate experiments from the EU - ENSEMBLES research project. Our results show that changes in system performance is much more influenced by changes in hydro-meteorological variables than by the choice of strategy modeling. They also show that a simple strategy representation (i.e. clear-sighted management) leads to similar estimates of performance modifications than those obtained with a representation supposedly closer to real world (i.e. the far-sighted management). The Short-Sighted management approach lead to significantly different results, especially

  4. How does epistemological knowledge on modelling influence students' engagement in the issue of climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tasquier, Giulia

    2016-05-01

    Involvement in climate change has been proven to be hindered by emotional and social barriers, as well as by conceptual difficulties that students may encounter in dealing with scientific content related to particular issues such as the greenhouse effect. In this study, we start from the conjecture that behind many conceptual difficulties and emotional barriers lie particular epistemological obstacles related to a naive and stereotypical view of science. These include, in particular, the belief that science still has the role and power to provide a unique, unquestionable, and certain explanation of events and processes. Such a naive idea clashes strongly with the intrinsic complexity of climate science. This paper sets out to investigate if and how the improvement of epistemological knowledge can influence behavioural habits and foster students' engagement in climate change. In order to explore such an issue, we focus on five interviews collected at the end of a teaching experience on climate change, carried out with secondary school students (grade 11; 16-year olds). This study is a follow-up of other two analytical studies aimed at investigating, respectively, the impact of the experience on students' epistemological knowledge and on their behavioural habits.

  5. The influence of land use and climate change on forest biomass and composition in Massachusetts, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Jonathan R; Foster, David R; Scheller, Robert; Kittredge, David

    2011-10-01

    Land use and climate change have complex and interacting effects on naturally dynamic forest landscapes. To anticipate and adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and aggregate impacts on forest growth and composition. We conducted a simulation experiment to evaluate regional forest change in Massachusetts, USA over the next 50 years (2010-2060). Our objective was to estimate, assuming a linear continuation of recent trends, the relative and interactive influence of continued growth and succession, climate change, forest conversion to developed uses, and timber harvest on live aboveground biomass (AGB) and tree species composition. We examined 20 years of land use records in relation to social and biophysical explanatory variables and used regression trees to create "probability-of-conversion" and "probability-of-harvest" zones. We incorporated this information into a spatially interactive forest landscape simulator to examine forest dynamics as they were affected by land use and climate change. We conducted simulations in a full-factorial design and found that continued forest growth and succession had the largest effect on AGB, increasing stores from 181.83 Tg to 309.56 Tg over 50 years. The increase varied from 49% to 112% depending on the ecoregion within the state. Compared to simulations with no climate or land use, forest conversion reduced gains in AGB by 23.18 Tg (or 18%) over 50 years. Timber harvests reduced gains in AGB by 5.23 Tg (4%). Climate change (temperature and precipitation) increased gains in AGB by 17.3 Tg (13.5%). Pinus strobus and Acer rubrum were ranked first and second, respectively, in terms of total AGB throughout all simulations. Climate change reinforced the dominance of those two species. Timber harvest reduced Quercus rubra from 10.8% to 9.4% of total AGB, but otherwise had little effect on composition. Forest conversion was generally indiscriminate in terms of species removal. Under the naive

  6. Are life history events of a northern breeding population of Cooper's Hawks influenced by changing climate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenfield, Robert N; Hardin, Madeline G; Bielefeldt, John; Keyel, Edward R

    2017-01-01

    Numerous studies have demonstrated earlier timing of spring migration and egg-laying in small passerines, but documentation of such responses to recent climate change in the life histories of higher trophic feeding birds such as raptors is relatively scarce. Raptors may be particularly susceptible to possible adverse effects of climate change due to their longer generation turnover times and lower reproductive capacity, which could lead to population declines because of an inability to match reproductive timing with optimal brood rearing conditions. Conversely adaptively favorable outcomes due to the influence of changing climate may occur. In general, birds that seasonally nest earlier typically have higher reproductive output compared to conspecifics that nest later in the season. Given the strong seasonal decline in reproductive output, and the heritability of nesting phenology, it is possible that nesting seasons would (adaptively) advance over time. Recent climate warming may release prior ecological constraints on birds that depend on food availability at the time of egg production, as do various raptors including Cooper's Hawks (Accipiter cooperii). Under this scenario, productivity, especially clutch size, might increase because it is likely that this reproductive demographic may be the most immediate response to the earlier seasonal presence of food resources. We demonstrated a statistically significant shift of about 4-5 days to an earlier timing of egg-hatching in spring across 36 years during 1980-2015 for a partially migratory population of Cooper's Hawks in Wisconsin, United States, which is consistent with a recent study that showed that Cooper's Hawks had advanced their timing of spring migration during 1979-2012. Both studies occurred in the Great Lakes region, an area that compared to global averages is experiencing earlier and increased warming particularly in the spring in Wisconsin. The nesting period did not lengthen. We suggest that the

  7. Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitsui, Takahito; Crucifix, Michel

    2016-07-01

    The last glacial period was punctuated by a series of abrupt climate shifts, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The frequency of DO events varied in time, supposedly because of changes in background climate conditions. Here, the influence of external forcings on DO events is investigated with statistical modelling. We assume two types of simple stochastic dynamical systems models (double-well potential-type and oscillator-type), forced by the northern hemisphere summer insolation change and/or the global ice volume change. The model parameters are estimated by using the maximum likelihood method with the NGRIP Ca^{2+} record. The stochastic oscillator model with at least the ice volume forcing reproduces well the sample autocorrelation function of the record and the frequency changes of warming transitions in the last glacial period across MISs 2, 3, and 4. The model performance is improved with the additional insolation forcing. The BIC scores also suggest that the ice volume forcing is relatively more important than the insolation forcing, though the strength of evidence depends on the model assumption. Finally, we simulate the average number of warming transitions in the past four glacial periods, assuming the model can be extended beyond the last glacial, and compare the result with an Iberian margin sea-surface temperature (SST) record (Martrat et al. in Science 317(5837): 502-507, 2007). The simulation result supports the previous observation that abrupt millennial-scale climate changes in the penultimate glacial (MIS 6) are less frequent than in the last glacial (MISs 2-4). On the other hand, it suggests that the number of abrupt millennial-scale climate changes in older glacial periods (MISs 6, 8, and 10) might be larger than inferred from the SST record.

  8. Influence of three common calibration metrics on the diagnosis of climate change impacts on water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seiller, G.; Roy, R.; Anctil, F.

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainties associated to the evaluation of the impacts of climate change on water resources are broad, from multiple sources, and lead to diagnoses sometimes difficult to interpret. Quantification of these uncertainties is a key element to yield confidence in the analyses and to provide water managers with valuable information. This work specifically evaluates the influence of hydrological modeling calibration metrics on future water resources projections, on thirty-seven watersheds in the Province of Québec, Canada. Twelve lumped hydrologic models, representing a wide range of operational options, are calibrated with three common objective functions derived from the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. The hydrologic models are forced with climate simulations corresponding to two RCP, twenty-nine GCM from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) and two post-treatment techniques, leading to future projections in the 2041-2070 period. Results show that the diagnosis of the impacts of climate change on water resources are quite affected by the hydrologic models selection and calibration metrics. Indeed, for the four selected hydrological indicators, dedicated to water management, parameters from the three objective functions can provide different interpretations in terms of absolute and relative changes, as well as projected changes direction and climatic ensemble consensus. The GR4J model and a multimodel approach offer the best modeling options, based on calibration performance and robustness. Overall, these results illustrate the need to provide water managers with detailed information on relative changes analysis, but also absolute change values, especially for hydrological indicators acting as security policy thresholds.

  9. Evaporation and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandsma, T.

    1993-01-01

    In this article the influence of climate change on evaporation is discussed. The emphasis is on open water evaporation. Three methods for calculating evaporation are compared considering only changes in temperature and factors directly dependent on temperature. The Penman-method is used to investiga

  10. Climate change and cities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Satterthwaite, David

    2006-10-15

    What is done, or not done, in cities in relation to climate change over the next 5-10 years will affect hundreds of millions of people, because their lives and livelihoods are at risk from global warming. What is done in cities will also have a major influence on whether the escalating risks for the whole planet will be reduced or eliminated. Climate change needs to be considered in all development plans and investments - local, regional, national and international. Urban growth must be made more climate-resilient and help reduce, rather than increase, greenhouse gas emissions. This will not be done by the market; it can only be done by governments.

  11. Network structure and influence of the climate change counter-movement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Justin

    2016-04-01

    Anthropogenic climate change represents a global threat to human well-being and ecosystem functioning. Yet despite its importance for science and policy, our understanding of the causes of widespread uncertainty and doubt found among the general public remains limited. The political and social processes driving such doubt and uncertainty are difficult to rigorously analyse, and research has tended to focus on the individual-level, rather than the larger institutions and social networks that produce and disseminate contrarian information. This study presents a new approach by using network science to uncover the institutional and corporate structure of the climate change counter-movement, and machine-learning text analysis to show its influence in the news media and bureaucratic politics. The data include a new social network of all known organizations and individuals promoting contrarian viewpoints, as well as the entirety of all written and verbal texts about climate change from 1993-2013 from every organization, three major news outlets, all US presidents, and every occurrence on the floor of the US Congress. Using network and computational text analysis, I find that the organizational power within the contrarian network, and the magnitude of semantic similarity, are both predicted by ties to elite corporate benefactors.

  12. Influence of climatic changes on pollution levels in the Balkan Peninsula

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zlatev, Z.; Georgiev, K.; Dimov, I.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of the paper is to study the influence of future climatic changes on some high pollution levels that can cause damages on plants, animals and human beings. The particular area of interest is the Balkan Peninsula. Four important quantities have been selected: (a) annual concentrations, (b...... of these scenarios, are carefully studied. The major conclusion is that the increase of the temperature, alone or in combination with some other factors, leads to rather considerable increases of some pollution levels, which might become dangerous for the environment. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  13. Differentiating Climate Change and Emissions Influence on Future Ozone and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stowell, J.; Kim, Y. M.; Gao, Y.; Fu, J. S.; Chang, H. H.; Liu, Y.

    2015-12-01

    From the advent of coal burning and the subsequent industrial revolution to the present, human activities continue to influence ground-level ozone (O3) concentrations. Besides the obvious environmental and climate implications, studies have shown convincing links between O3 exposure and health. These adverse health outcomes range from impaired lung function and cardiovascular stress to premature death. However, little is known concerning the potential impacts of future mitigation policies on O3 and health. Applying novel modeling strategies, we provide evidence of the impact of mitigation on O3 attributable to both climate change and anthropogenic emissions. We employ the latest emission scenarios for both low and high emissions (Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs) and include population projections to estimate excess mortality associated with each source separate from one another. We found that, by the mid-21st century, U.S. O3 could increase by 0.9% per year under a low emission future and by 1.6% under high emission settings. We predict excess mortality from high emission-induced O3 to increase annually by over 1,200 deaths. Conversely, excess deaths from lower emissions may decrease by over 1,600 annually. Taken together, these results indicate that mitigation efforts may significantly offset the effect of climate change on O3-related mortality.

  14. Projection of Climate Change Influences on U.S. West Nile Virus Vectors

    OpenAIRE

    Brown, Heidi E.; Young, Alex; Lega, Joceline; Theodore G Andreadis; Schurich, Jessica; Comrie, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    While estimates of the impact of climate change on health are necessary for health care planners and climate change policy makers, models to produce quantitative estimates remain scarce. We describe a freely available dynamic simulation model parameterized for three West Nile virus vectors, which provides an effective tool for studying vector-borne disease risk due to climate change. The Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model is parameterized with species specific temperature-dependent development...

  15. Influences of climate change on water resources availability in Jinjiang Basin, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Wenchao; Wang, Jie; Li, Zhanjie; Yao, Xiaolei; Yu, Jingshan

    2014-01-01

    The influences of climate change on water resources availability in Jinjiang Basin, China, were assessed using the Block-wise use of the TOPmodel with the Muskingum-Cunge routing method (BTOPMC) distributed hydrological model. The ensemble average of downscaled output from sixteen GCMs (General Circulation Models) for A1B emission scenario (medium CO2 emission) in the 2050s was adopted to build regional climate change scenario. The projected precipitation and temperature data were used to drive BTOPMC for predicting hydrological changes in the 2050s. Results show that evapotranspiration will increase in most time of a year. Runoff in summer to early autumn exhibits an increasing trend, while in the rest period of a year it shows a decreasing trend, especially in spring season. From the viewpoint of water resource availability, it is indicated that it has the possibility that water resources may not be sufficient to fulfill irrigation water demand in the spring season and one possible solution is to store more water in the reservoir in previous summer.

  16. Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    According to the National Academy of Sciences in American,the Earth's surface temperature has risen by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated warming during the past two decades. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.Human activities have altered the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases-primarily carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The heat-trapping property of these gases is undisputed although uncertainties exist about exactly how earth's climate responds to them.

  17. Influence of dynamic vegetation on climate change and terrestrial carbon storage in the Last Glacial Maximum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. O'ishi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available When the climate is reconstructed from paleoevidence, it shows that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 21 000 yr ago is cold and dry compared to the present-day. Reconstruction also shows that compared to today, the vegetation of the LGM is less active and the distribution of vegetation was drastically different, due to cold temperature, dryness, and a lower level of atmospheric CO2 concentration (185 ppm compared to a preindustrial level of 285 ppm. In the present paper, we investigate the influence of vegetation change on the climate of the LGM by using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM, the MIROC-LPJ. The MIROC-LPJ is different from earlier studies in the introduction of a bias correction method in individual running GCM experiments. We examined four GCM experiments (LGM and preindustrial, with and without vegetation feedback and quantified the strength of the vegetation feedback during the LGM. The result shows that global-averaged cooling during the LGM is amplified by +13.5 % due to the introduction of vegetation feedback. This is mainly caused by the increase of land surface albedo due to the expansion of tundra in northern high latitudes and the desertification in northern middle latitudes around 30° N to 60° N. We also investigated how this change in climate affected the total terrestrial carbon storage by using offline Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ-DGVM. Our result shows that the total terrestrial carbon storage was reduced by 597 PgC during the LGM, which corresponds to the emission of 282 ppm atmospheric CO2. In the LGM experiments, the global carbon distribution is generally the same whether the vegetation feedback to the atmosphere is included or not. However, the inclusion of vegetation feedback causes substantial terrestrial carbon storage change, especially in explaining the lowering of atmospheric CO2 during the LGM.

  18. The influence of climate changes on carbon cycle in the russian forests. Data inventory and long-scale model prognoses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kokorin, A.O.; Nazarov, I.M.; Lelakin, A.L. [Inst. Global Climate and Ecology, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    1995-12-31

    The growing up climate changes arise the question about reaction of forests. Forests cover 770 Mha in Russia and are giant carbon reservoir. Climate changes cause disbalance in carbon budget that give additional CO{sub 2} exchange between forests and the atmosphere. The aim of the work is estimation of these fluxes. This problem is directly connected with an GHG inventory, vulnerability and mitigation assessment, which are necessary for future Russian Reports to UN FCCC. The work includes the following steps: (1) Collection of literature data as well as processing of the experimental data on influence of climate changes on forests, (2) Calculation of carbon budget as base for calculations of CO{sub 2} fluxes, (3) Developing of new version of CCBF (Carbon and Climate in Boreal Forests) model, (4) Model estimations of current and future CO{sub 2} fluxes caused by climate changes, forest cuttings, fires and reforestation

  19. Pathogenic marine microbes influence the effects of climate change on a commercially important tropical bivalve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Lucy M; Alsterberg, Christian; Turner, Andrew D; Girisha, S K; Rai, Ashwin; Havenhand, Jonathan N; Venugopal, M N; Karunasagar, Indrani; Godhe, Anna

    2016-01-01

    There is growing evidence that climate change will increase the prevalence of toxic algae and harmful bacteria, which can accumulate in marine bivalves. However, we know little about any possible interactions between exposure to these microorganisms and the effects of climate change on bivalve health, or about how this may affect the bivalve toxin-pathogen load. In mesocosm experiments, mussels, Perna viridis, were subjected to simulated climate change (warming and/or hyposalinity) and exposed to harmful bacteria and/or toxin-producing dinoflagellates. We found significant interactions between climate change and these microbes on metabolic and/or immunobiological function and toxin-pathogen load in mussels. Surprisingly, however, these effects were virtually eliminated when mussels were exposed to both harmful microorganisms simultaneously. This study is the first to examine the effects of climate change on determining mussel toxin-pathogen load in an ecologically relevant, multi-trophic context. The results may have considerable implications for seafood safety.

  20. The influence of climate change and anthropogenic activities on annual runoff of Huangfuchuan basin in northwest China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yuanyuan; Shi, Changxing; Fan, Xiaoli; Shao, Wenwei

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, climate change and anthropogenic activities have threatened the water supply in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, prompting this study into the variation of water resources and the influencing factors, taking the Huangfuchuan basin as an example. Firstly, changes in climatic aridity and annual runoff in the Huangfuchuan basin from 1956 to 2009 were analysed. Then, the influence of changes in climatic aridity, water use for irrigation and soil conservation measures were calculated using an analysis of principal components regression. The results show that climatic aridity has increased in the recent three decades with two abrupt changes around 1961 and 1998, and that annual runoff has decreased continually with two abrupt changes around 1979 and 1999. The rapid development of sediment check dams in the 1970s could be the reason for the abrupt change around 1979. The abrupt change around 1999 could be the result of both the intensification of changes in climatic aridity and the large-scale construction of water and soil conservation measures after 1983, the further improvement of these measures after 1993 and ecological restoration measures of converting cropland to forest implemented since 1997. By quantifying the effects of those factors that influence runoff variation, it was found that anthropogenic activities were more important than climate change in the two periods between 1979-1998 and 1999-2006, but the influence of changes in climatic aridity increased from the first to the second period. For the runoff reduction related to anthropogenic activities, the primary cause was water diversion for irrigation in the first period, and it was soil conservation measures in the second period.

  1. The predicted influence of climate change on lesser prairie-chicken reproductive parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grisham, Blake A.; Boal, Clint W.; Haukos, David A.; Davis, Dawn M.; Boydston, Kathy K.; Dixon, Charles; Heck, Willard R.

    2013-01-01

    The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001–2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter’s linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Niña events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival.

  2. Influence of dynamic vegetation on climate change and terrestrial carbon storage in the Last Glacial Maximum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. O'ishi

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available When the climate is reconstructed from paleoevidence, it shows that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 21 000 yr ago is cold and dry compared to the present day. Reconstruction also shows that compared to today, the vegetation of the LGM is less active and the distribution of vegetation was drastically different, due to cold temperature, dryness, and a lower level of atmospheric CO2 level (185 ppm compared to a preindustrial level of 285 ppm. In the present paper, we investigate the influence of vegetation change on the climate of the LGM by using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (GCM, the MIROC-LPJ. We examined four GCM experiments (LGM and preindustrial, with and without vegetation feedback and quantified the strength of the vegetation feedback during the LGM. The result shows global-averaged cooling during the LGM is amplified by +13.5% due to the introduction of vegetation feedback. This is mainly caused by the increase of land surface albedo due to the expansion of tundra in northern high latitudes and the desertification in northern middle latitudes around 30° N to 60° N. We also investigated how this change in climate affected the total terrestrial carbon storage by using a separated Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ-DGVM. Our result shows that the total terrestrial carbon storage was reduced by 653 PgC during the LGM, which corresponds to the emission of 308 ppm atmospheric CO2. The carbon distribution during the LGM that is predicted from using an atmospheric-ocean-vegetation (AOV GCM and using the LPJ-DGVM after an atmospheric-ocean (AO GCM, is generally the same, but the difference is not negligible for explaining the lowering of atmospheric CO2 during the LGM.

  3. Climate Change Schools Project...

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinzey, Krista

    2010-01-01

    This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools Project…

  4. Climate Change Schools Project...

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinzey, Krista

    2010-01-01

    This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools…

  5. How do people's perceptions and climatic disaster experiences influence their daily behaviors regarding adaptation to climate change? - A case study among young generations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Ying; Wang, Ming; Yousefpour, Rasoul

    2017-03-01

    Adaptation is a commonly applied strategy used to address individual behavior changes, in response to climate change. However, in-depth, evidence-based investigations of the relationships among individual perceptions, climatic disaster experiences, and daily behaviors regarding adaptation to climate change remain to be conducted. We obtained survey data from 488 respondents in southwestern China, a region prone to frequent and severe droughts, to assess factors that influence adaptive behaviors and to identify their pathways. We applied Construal Level Theory (CLT) and the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) to differentiate between respondents' high-level abstract construals and their low-level concrete construals. We analyzed the influences of these two levels of perception, combined with drought experiences on water-saving behaviors. We developed a structural equation model to estimate the correlation coefficients of the latent and observed variables in the structural process linked to the respondents' adaptive behaviors. The results found that a concrete perception of saving water plays a more significant part than an abstract perception of climate change in prompting specific adaptive behaviors. Improving public perceptions of climate change might increase the desirability of adaptation, whereas improving perceptions of water saving might increase the feasibility of implementing adaptive measures. Experience influenced individual behaviors, but that influence was indirect through its effects on perceptions.

  6. Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Michael E.; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Steinman, Byron A.; Miller, Sonya K.; Coumou, Dim

    2017-01-01

    Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6–8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art (“CMIP5”) historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability. PMID:28345645

  7. Influence of forest fires on climate change studies in the central boreal forest of Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valeo, C.; Beaty, K.; Hesslein, R.

    2003-09-01

    This brief paper indicates that forest fires may have short and longer term effects on runoff and thus, can influence trend studies on the response of watersheds to climate change. Twenty-two watersheds at the Experimental Lakes Area in northwestern Ontario were studied to view the impacts of climatic variability and forest fires on runoff. A roughly 30 year database demonstrated few trends in climatological variables and even fewer trends in runoff data at the 5% significance level. Daily maximum temperature increased by 0.053 °C per year, while precipitation in the months of February and March showed significant decreases. Total snow showed a significant decrease over a 30 year period at the 8% significance level. The Mann Kendall test for trend was applied to the runoff indices of 19 watersheds and it was revealed that only six exhibited trends. Of these, five had been burned during the test period. Virtually all burned watersheds showed initial increases in runoff, however, long term runoff trended lower in the burned watersheds, while the one watershed that was not burned showed an increasing trend. Forest fires alter the age distribution of trees with subsequent impacts on water yields in the short and longer term.

  8. The potential influence of changing climate on the persistence of salmonids of the inland west

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haak, A.L.; Williams, J.E.; Isaak, D.; Todd, A.; Muhlfeld, C.C.; Kershner, J.L.; Gresswell, R.E.; Hostetler, S.W.; Neville, H.M.

    2010-01-01

    streams is commonly a transient phenomenon, lasting only until riparian vegetation has recovered (Gresswell, 1999); however, ongoing climate change could preclude recovery to higher stature, prefire vegetation types in some areas (McKenzie and others, 2004; van Mantgem and Stephenson, 2007), resulting in a loss of critical riparian shading. Additionally, when wildfires occur in steep mountain topographies, the vegetation that stabilize s soils on hillslopes is often killed and landslides become more prevalent (Gresswell, 1999). Landslides int o stream channels form debris flows composed of sediment slurries and dead trees that can scour channels to bedrock and further exacerbate stream heating, delay recovery of riparian areas, or extirpate fish populations (Gresswell, 1999; May and Gresswell, 2003; Dunham and others, 2007). Changes in stream environments will shift habitat distributions, sometimes unpredictably, in both time and space for many salmonid fishes. Water temperature fundamentally influences aquatic ecosystem health because distribution, reproduction, fitness, and survival of ectothermic organisms are inextricably linked to the thermal regime of the environment. Historically, research has focused on defining lethal thermal limits of salmonids (Eaton and others, 1995; Selong and others, 2001; Todd and others, 2008); however, water temperature is known to be important in biological processes at a variety of spatial scales and levels of biological organization (Rahel and Olden, 2008; McCullough and others, 2009). For instance, trout are affected directly by water temperature through feeding, metabolism, and growth rates, and indirectly by factors such as prey availability and species interactions (Wehrly and others, 2007; Rahel and Olden, 2008). Where cold water temperatures currently limit habitat suitability and distributions of some species (for example, at the highest and most northerly distributional extents; Nakano and others, 1996; Coleman and Fausch

  9. Climate Change Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presents information, charts and graphs showing measured climate changes across 40 indicators related to greenhouse gases, weather and climate, oceans, snow and ice, heath and society, and ecosystems.

  10. Simulation of the influence of historical land cover changes on the global climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y. [Nanjing Univ. of Aeronautics and Astronautics (China). College of Civil Aviation; Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia; Yan, X. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia; Beijing Normal Univ. (China). State Key Lab. of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE); Wang, Z. [British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge (United Kingdom)

    2013-09-01

    In order to estimate biogeophysical effects of historical land cover change on climate during last three centuries, a set of experiments with a climate system model of intermediate complexity (MPM-2) is performed. In response to historical deforestation, the model simulates a decrease in annual mean global temperature in the range of 0.07-0.14 C based on different grassland albedos. The effect of land cover changes is most pronounced in the middle northern latitudes with maximum cooling reaching approximately 0.6 C during northern summer. The cooling reaches 0.57 C during northern spring owing to the large effects of land surface albedo. These results suggest that land cover forcing is important for study on historical climate change and that more research is necessary in the assessment of land management options for climate change mitigation. (orig.)

  11. A population facing climate change: joint influences of Allee effects and environmental boundary geometry

    CERN Document Server

    Roques, Lionel; Berestycki, Henri; Kretzschmar, André

    2009-01-01

    As a result of climate change, many populations have to modify their range to follow the suitable areas - their "climate envelope" - often risking extinction. During this migration process, they may face absolute boundaries to dispersal, because of external environmental factors. Consequently, not only the position, but also the shape of the climate envelope can be modified. We use a reaction-diffusion model to analyse the effects on population persistence of simultaneous changes in the climate envelope position and shape. When the growth term is of logistic type, we show that extinction and persistence are principally conditioned by the species mobility and the speed of climate change, but not by the shape of the climate envelope. However, with a growth term taking an Allee effect into account, we find a high sensitivity to the variations of the shape of the climate envelope. In this case, the species which have a high mobility, although they could more easily follow the migration of the climate envelope, wo...

  12. CLIMATE CHANGE, Change International Negociations?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Xiaosheng

    2009-01-01

    @@ Climate change is one of key threats to human beings who have to deal with.According to Bali Action Plan released after the 2007 Bali Climate Talk held in Indonesia,the United Nations Framework on Climate Change(UNFCCC) has launched a two-year process to negotiate a post-2012 climate arrangement after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 and the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference will seal a final deal on post-2012 climate regime in December,2009.For this,the United Nation Chief Ban Ki Moon called 2009"the year ofclimate change".

  13. Factors influencing farmers’ choices of adaptation to climate change in Ekiti State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oluwakemi Adeola Obayelu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change poses a great threat to human security through erratic rainfall patterns and decreasing crop yields, contributing to increased hunger. The perceptions of the indigenous people about climate change and their responses to climate change have significant roles to play in addressing climate change. Therefore a critical study on farmers’ choices of adaptation to is critical for ensuring food security poverty alleviation. A multi-stage random sampling technique was used to select 156 households in Ekiti state while descriptive statistics and multinomial logit were used to analyze the data obtained from the households. The results showed that the most widely used adaptation method by the farmers were soil and water conservation measures (67 percent. The multinomial logit analysis revealed that the factors explaining farmer’s choices of climate change adaptation include age of the farmers, gender of the household head, years of education, years of farming experience, household size, farmers information on climate change, farmers access to credit, farm income, non-farm income, livestock ownership and extension contact.

  14. Mesoscale Morphological Change, Beach Rotation and Storm Climate Influences along a Macrotidal Embayed Beach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tony Thomas

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Cross-shore profiles and environmental forcing were used to analyse morphological change of a headland bay beach: Tenby, West Wales (51.66 N; −4.71 W over a mesoscale timeframe (1996–2013. Beach profile variations were attuned with longer term shoreline change identified by previous research showing southern erosion and northern accretion within the subaerial zone and were statistically significant in both sectors although centrally there was little or no significance. Conversely a statistically significant volume loss was shown at all profile locations within the intertidal zone. There were negative phase relationships between volume changes at the beach extremities, indicative of beach rotation and results were statistically significant (p < 0.01 within both subaerial (R2 = 0.59 and intertidal (R2 = 0.70 zones. This was confirmed qualitatively by time-series analysis and further cross correlation analysis showed trend reversal time-lagged associations between sediment exchanges at either end of the beach. Wave height and storm events displayed summer/winter trends which explained longer term one directional rotation at this location. In line with previous regional research, environmental forcing suggests that imposed changes are influenced by variations in southwesterly wind regimes. Winter storms are generated by Atlantic southwesterly winds and cause a south toward north sediment exchange, while southeasterly conditions that cause a trend reversal are generally limited to the summer period when waves are less energetic. Natural and man-made embayed beaches are a common coastal feature and many experience shoreline changes, jeopardising protective and recreational beach functions. In order to facilitate effective and sustainable coastal zone management strategies, an understanding of the morphological variability of these systems is needed. Therefore, this macrotidal research dealing with rotational processes across the entire intertidal

  15. Climate Change and Its Influence on Crop Farming in Xintai City

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    [Objective] The research aimed to study the variation characteristics of climate and its influence on the crop farming in Xintai City.[Method] By using the yearly and monthly average temperature,rainfall,first and last frost dates,frost-free period,sunshine hours,etc.in Xintai City during 1957-2009,the variation characteristics of climate and its influence on the crop farming in Xintai City in recent 53 years were analyzed.[Result] The temperature rose in the fluctuation in Xintai City.The warm winter pheno...

  16. The Potential Impact of Climate Change on Soil Properties and Processes and Corresponding Influence on Food Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric C. Brevik

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available According to the IPCC, global temperatures are expected to increase between 1.1 and 6.4 °C during the 21st century and precipitation patterns will be altered. Soils are intricately linked to the atmospheric/climate system through the carbon, nitrogen, and hydrologic cycles. Because of this, altered climate will have an effect on soil processes and properties. Recent studies indicate at least some soils may become net sources of atmospheric C, lowering soil organic matter levels. Soil erosion by wind and water is also likely to increase. However, there are many things we need to know more about. How climate change will affect the N cycle and, in turn, how that will affect C storage in soils is a major research need, as is a better understanding of how erosion processes will be influenced by changes in climate. The response of plants to elevated atmospheric CO2 given limitations in nutrients like N and P, and how that will influence soil organic matter levels, is another critical research need. How soil organic matter levels react to changes in the C and N cycles will influence the ability of soils to support crop growth, which has significant ramifications for food security. Therefore, further study of soil-climate interactions in a changing world is critical to addressing future food security concerns.

  17. Influences of Seaway and CO2 Changes during the Pliocene on Tropical Pacific Sector Climate in the Kiel Climate Model: Mean Sate, Annual Cycle, ENSO, and their Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Zhaoyang; Park, Wonsun; Latif, Mojib; Krebs-Kanzow, Uta; Schneider, Birgit

    2016-04-01

    The opening and closing of seaways can have a profound impact on global and regional climate. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of tropical Pacific interannual variability in the present-day climate. Available proxy evidence suggests that ENSO also existed during past climates, for example during the Pliocene extending from about 5.3 million to about 2.6 million years BP. We investigate the influences of the Panama Seaway closing and Indonesian Passages narrowing, and of carbon dioxide (CO2) changes during the Pliocene on tropical Pacific mean climate, annual cycle and ENSO. The Kiel Climate Model (KCM) is employed to study the influences of the changing geometry and CO2-concentration. We find that ENSO is sensitive to the closing of the Panama Seaway, with ENSO amplitude being reduced by about 15% - 20%. The narrowing of the Indonesian Passages marginally enhances ENSO strength by about 6%. ENSO period changes are modest in all experiments. Annual cycle changes are prominent. The annual cycle in the eastern tropical Pacific intensifies by about 50% in response to the closing of the Panama Seaway, which is largely attributed to the strengthening of meridional wind stress. Bjerknes stability index (BSI) analysis suggests that the growth rate of the ENSO mode does not significantly change due to compensating changes in ocean-atmosphere feedbacks, especially dynamical damping and thermocline feedback. A robust inverse relationship is found between ENSO strength and the strength of the annual cycle.

  18. Is rainfall erosivity influenced by climate change?. A case study in a Mediterranean Climate area of North East Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Maria C.

    2014-05-01

    One of the main characteristics of the Mediterranean climate is the high intensity rainfall events usually recorded in autumn and spring. Those events usually concentrate a high percentage of annual rainfall. Different studies carried out in the Mediterranean countries suggest that notable changes in seasonal precipitation regimes have occurred during the second half of the 20th century. In addition, precipitation extremes seem to increase in association with global warming, which may favour erosion processes. Under this hypothesis one question arise: is the rainfall erosivity increasing influenced by climate change? In this work rainfall erosivity and its variability in the last two decades was analysed in an area located NE Spain, where erosion processes of high magnitude are recorded. The main land use in that area is grape vines, which due to the scarce soil cover is usually associated with the highest erosion rates. The study area was located in the Penedès depression (North East Spain). Hourly data from four observatories Els Hostalets de Pierola (UTM X: 400664, Y: 4598608m, elv: 326m ), La Granada ( X:393758; Y:4580393), Sant Martí Sarroca (X: 385556; Y:4581486, elv: 257m) and Font_Rubi (X: 385118, Y:4587935. elev: 415 m ) belonging to the period 1997-2013 were used in the analysis together with a tipping bucket rainfall series recorded at one minute intervals (10 years within the period 1996-2012). Rainfall erosivity was quantified by the index rainfall kinetic energy multiplied by the maximum intensity in 30minute periods (E*Imax30). The Imax30 was estimated from the relationship between hourly and 30 minute data obtained for the tipping bucket series using the Marquard algoritme. In order to analsye changes in rainfall erosivity, the annual and monthly number of erosive events were analysed for each observatory and in each year, the events were classified into intervals according to their erosivity. The intervals used were: 0-100; 100-200; 200-300; 300

  19. Influence of long term climate change on net infiltration at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, Alan I.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Hevesi, Joseph A.

    1993-01-01

    Net infiltration and recharge at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, a potential site for a high level nuclear waste repository, are determined both by the rock properties and past and future changes in climate. A 1-dimensional model was constructed to represent a borehole being drilled through the unsaturated zone. The rock properties were matched to the lithologies expected to be encountered in the borehole. As current paleoclimate theory assumes that 18O increases with wetter and cooler global climates, a past climate scenario, built on depletion of 18O from ocean sediments was used as a basis for climate change over the past 700,000 years. The climate change was simulated by assigning net infiltration values as a linear function of 8O. Assuming the rock properties, lithologies and climate scenarios are correct, simulations indicated that Yucca Mountain is not in steady state equilibrium at the surface (250 meters. Based on the cyclic climate inputs, the near surface is currently in a long term drying trend (for the last 3,000 years) yet recharge into the water table is continuing to occur at an average rate equivalent to the average input rate of the climate model, indicating that conditions at depth are damped out over very long time periods. The Paintbrush Tuff nonwelded units, positioned between the Tiva Canyon and Topopah Spring welded Tuff Members, do not appear to act as capillary barrier and therefore would not perch water. The low porosity vitric caprock and basal vitrophyre of the Topopah Spring Member, however, act as restrictive layers. The higher porosity rock directly above the caprock reduces the potential for the caprock to perch water leaving the basal vitrophyre as the most likely location for perched water to develop.

  20. Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... sheets Fact files Questions & answers Features Multimedia Contacts Climate change and health Fact sheet Reviewed June 2016 Key ... in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution. Climate change Over the last 50 years, human activities – particularly ...

  1. The influence of coral reefs and climate change on wave-driven flooding of tropical coastlines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellen Quataert,; Storlazzi, Curt; Arnold van Rooijen,; Ap van Dongeren,; Cheriton, Olivia

    2015-01-01

    A numerical model, XBeach, calibrated and validated on field data collected at Roi-Namur Island on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of Marshall Islands, was used to examine the effects of different coral reef characteristics on potential coastal hazards caused by wave-driven flooding and how these effects may be altered by projected climate change. The results presented herein suggest that coasts fronted by relatively narrow reefs with steep fore reef slopes (~1:10 and steeper) and deeper, smoother reef flats are expected to experience the highest wave runup. Wave runup increases for higher water levels (sea level rise), higher waves, and lower bed roughness (coral degradation), which are all expected effects of climate change. Rising sea levels and climate change will therefore have a significant negative impact on the ability of coral reefs to mitigate the effects of coastal hazards in the future.

  2. The climate influence of anthropogenic land-use changes on near-surface wind energy potential in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Yan; WANG Yuan; CHU HuiYun; TANG JianPing

    2008-01-01

    There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on wind energy in China. The climate change of near-surface wind energy potential in China under the background of global warming and its association with anthropogenic land-use changes are investigated by calculating the difference in surface wind speeds between the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the observations since the re-analysis dataset contains the influence of large-scale climate changes due to greenhouse gases, it is less sensitive to regional surface processes associated with land types. The surface wind data in this study consist of long-tarm observations from 604 Chinese Roution Meteorological Stations and theNCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1960-1999. The results suggest that the observed mean wind speeds significantly weakened and the near-surface wind power trended downward due to urbanization and other land-use changes in the last 40 years. The mean wind energy weakened by -3.84 W·m-2 per decade due to the influence of anthropogenic land-use change, which is close to the observed climate change (-4.51 W·m-2/10 a).

  3. Influence of seaway changes during the Pliocene on tropical Pacific climate in the Kiel climate model: mean state, annual cycle, ENSO, and their interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Zhaoyang; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun; Krebs-Kanzow, Uta; Schneider, Birgit

    2016-08-01

    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of tropical Pacific interannual variability in the present-day climate. Available proxy evidence suggests that ENSO also existed during past climates, for example during the Pliocene extending from about 5.3 million to about 2.6 million years BP. Here we investigate the influences of the Panama Seaway closing and Indonesian Passages narrowing, and also of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on the tropical Pacific mean climate and annual cycle, and their combined impact on ENSO during the Pliocene. To this end the Kiel Climate Model), a global climate model, is employed to study the influences of the changing geometry and CO2-concentration. We find that ENSO is sensitive to the closing of the Panama Seaway, with ENSO amplitude being reduced by about 15-20 %. The narrowing of the Indonesian Passages enhances ENSO strength but only by about 6 %. ENSO period changes are modest and the spectral ENSO peak stays rather broad. Annual cycle changes are more prominent. An intensification of the annual cycle by about 50 % is simulated in response to the closing of the Panama Seaway, which is largely attributed to the strengthening of meridional wind stress. In comparison to the closing of the Panama Seaway, the narrowing of the Indonesian Passages only drives relatively weak changes in the annual cycle. A robust relationship is found such that ENSO amplitude strengthens when the annual cycle amplitude weakens.

  4. Climate Change Law

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Farber, D.A.; Peeters, Marjan

    2016-01-01

    This book brings together over seventy fifty authors for a comprehensive examination of the emerging global regime of climate change law. Despite the relative youth of climate change law, we can already begin to see the outlines of legal regimes addressing climate change mitigation and adaptation (a

  5. Gaseous mercury fluxes in peatlands and the potential influence of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haynes, Kristine M.; Kane, Evan S.; Potvin, Lynette; Lilleskov, Erik A.; Kolka, Randall K.; Mitchell, Carl P. J.

    2017-04-01

    Climate change has the potential to significantly impact the stability of large stocks of mercury (Hg) stored in peatland systems due to increasing temperatures, altered water table regimes and subsequent shifts in vascular plant communities. However, the Hg exchange dynamics between the atmosphere and peatlands are not well understood. At the PEATcosm Mesocosm Facility in Houghton, Michigan, total gaseous Hg (TGM) fluxes were monitored in a subset of 1-m3 peat monoliths with altered water table positions (high and low) and vascular plant functional groups (sedge only, Ericaceae only or unmanipulated control) above the Sphagnum moss layer. At the SPRUCE bog in north-central Minnesota, TGM fluxes were measured from plots subjected to deep peat soil warming (up to +9 °C above ambient at a depth of 2 m). At PEATcosm, the strongest depositional trend was observed with the Low WT - sedge only treatment mesocosms with a mean TGM flux of -73.7 ± 6.3 ng m-2 d-1, likely due to shuttling of Hg to the peat at depth by aerenchymous tissues. The highest total leaf surface and tissue Hg concentrations were observed with the Ericaceae shrubs. A negative correlation between TGM flux and Ericaceae total leaf surface area suggests an influence of shrubs in controlling Hg exchange through stomatal uptake, surface sorption and potentially, peat shading. Surface peat total Hg concentrations are highest in treatments with greatest deposition suggesting deposition controls Hg accumulation in surface peat. Fluxes in the SPRUCE plots ranged from -45.9 ± 93.8 ng m-2 d-1 prior to the implementation of the deep warming treatments to -1.41 ± 27.1 ng m-2 d-1 once warming targets were achieved at depth and +10.2 ± 44.6 ng m-2 d-1 following prolonged deep soil warming. While these intervals did not differ significantly, a significant positive increase in the slope of the regression between flux and surface temperature was observed across the pre-treatment and warming periods. Shifts in

  6. Understanding the influence of climate change on the embodied energy of water supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo, Weiwei; Wang, Haiying; Jacobs, Jennifer M

    2016-05-15

    The current study aims to advance understandings on how and to what degree climate change will affect the life cycle chemical and energy uses of drinking water supply. A dynamic life cycle assessment was performed to quantify historical monthly operational embodied energy of a selected water supply system located in northeast US. Comprehensive multivariate and regression analyses were then performed to understand the statistical correlation among monthly life cycle energy consumptions, three water quality indicators (UV254, pH, and water temperature), and five climate indicators (monthly mean temperature, monthly mean maximum/minimum temperatures, total precipitation, and total snow fall). Thirdly, a calculation was performed to understand how volumetric and total life cycle energy consumptions will change under two selected IPCC emission scenarios (A2 and B1). It was found that volumetric life cycle energy consumptions are highest in winter months mainly due to the higher uses of natural gas in the case study system, but total monthly life cycle energy consumptions peak in both July and January because of the increasing water demand in summer months. Most of the variations in chemical and energy uses can be interpreted by water quality and climate variations except for the use of soda ash. It was also found that climate change might lead to an average decrease of 3-6% in the volumetric energy use of the case study system by the end of the century. This result combined with conclusions reached by previous climate versus water supply studies indicates that effects of climate change on drinking water supply might be highly dependent on the geographical location and treatment process of individual water supply systems.

  7. Hantaviruses and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klempa, B

    2009-06-01

    Most hantaviruses are rodent-borne emerging viruses. They cause two significant human diseases, haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Asia and Europe, and hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome in the Americas. Very recently, several novel hantaviruses with unknown pathogenic potential have been identified in Africa and in a variety of insectivores (shrews and a mole). Because there is very limited information available on the possible impact of climate change on all of these highly dangerous pathogens, it is timely to review this aspect of their epidemiology. It can reasonably be concluded that climate change should influence hantaviruses through impacts on the hantavirus reservoir host populations. We can anticipate changes in the size and frequency of hantavirus outbreaks, the spectrum of hantavirus species and geographical distribution (mediated by changes in population densities), and species composition and geographical distribution of their reservoir hosts. The early effects of global warming have already been observed in different geographical areas of Europe. Elevated average temperatures in West-Central Europe have been associated with more frequent Puumala hantavirus outbreaks, through high seed production (mast year) and high bank vole densities. On the other hand, warm winters in Scandinavia have led to a decline in vole populations as a result of the missing protective snow cover. Additional effects can be caused by increased intensity and frequency of extreme climatic events, or by changes in human behaviour leading to higher risk of human virus exposure. Regardless of the extent of climate change, it is difficult to predict the impact on hantavirus survival, emergence and epidemiology. Nevertheless, hantaviruses will undoubtedly remain a significant public health threat for several decades to come.

  8. Climate change influences on crop mix shifts in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Sung Ju; McCarl, Bruce A.

    2017-01-01

    We examine the impact of current and future climate on crop mixes over space in the US. We find using historical data that temperature and precipitation are among the causal factors for shits in crop production location and mixes, with some crops being more sensitive than others. In particular, we find that when temperature rises, cotton, rice, sorghum and winter wheat are more likely to be chosen. We also find that barley, sorghum, winter wheat, spring wheat and hay are more likely to be chosen as regions become drier, and corn, cotton, rice and soybeans are more likely to be selected in wetter regions. Additionally, we assess how much of the observed crop mix shifts between 1970 and 2010 were contributed to by climate change. There we find climate explains about 7–50% of the shift in latitude, 20–36% in longitude and 4–28% of that in elevation. Finally, we estimate climate change impacts on future crop mix under CMIP5 scenarios. There we find shifts in US production regions for almost all major crops with the movement north and east. The estimates describe how the farmers respond to altering climate and can be used for planning future crop allocations.

  9. Climate change influences on crop mix shifts in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Sung Ju; McCarl, Bruce A.

    2017-01-01

    We examine the impact of current and future climate on crop mixes over space in the US. We find using historical data that temperature and precipitation are among the causal factors for shits in crop production location and mixes, with some crops being more sensitive than others. In particular, we find that when temperature rises, cotton, rice, sorghum and winter wheat are more likely to be chosen. We also find that barley, sorghum, winter wheat, spring wheat and hay are more likely to be chosen as regions become drier, and corn, cotton, rice and soybeans are more likely to be selected in wetter regions. Additionally, we assess how much of the observed crop mix shifts between 1970 and 2010 were contributed to by climate change. There we find climate explains about 7–50% of the shift in latitude, 20–36% in longitude and 4–28% of that in elevation. Finally, we estimate climate change impacts on future crop mix under CMIP5 scenarios. There we find shifts in US production regions for almost all major crops with the movement north and east. The estimates describe how the farmers respond to altering climate and can be used for planning future crop allocations. PMID:28098198

  10. Climate change adaptation in Ethiopia: to what extent does social protection influence livelihood diversification?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weldegebriel, Zerihun; Prowse, Martin Philip

    2013-01-01

    Social-protection programmes like the Productive Safety-Net Programme (PSNP) in Ethiopia can play a positive role in promoting livelihoods and enhancing risk management. This article uses propensity score matching to estimate its effect on income diversification. The results suggest that receivin...... in a positive manner for climate adaptation. The article concludes by arguing for the promotion of positive forms of income diversification and the further investigation of the PSNP’s influence on autonomous adaptation strategies....

  11. The influence of recent climate change on tree height growth differs with species and spatial environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Messaoud, Yassine; Chen, Han Y H

    2011-02-16

    Tree growth has been reported to increase in response to recent global climate change in controlled and semi-controlled experiments, but few studies have reported response of tree growth to increased temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration in natural environments. This study addresses how recent global climate change has affected height growth of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx) and black spruce (Picea mariana Mill B.S.) in their natural environments. We sampled 145 stands dominated by aspen and 82 dominated by spruce over the entire range of their distributions in British Columbia, Canada. These stands were established naturally after fire between the 19th and 20th centuries. Height growth was quantified as total heights of sampled dominant and co-dominant trees at breast-height age of 50 years. We assessed the relationships between 50-year height growth and environmental factors at both spatial and temporal scales. We also tested whether the tree growth associated with global climate change differed with spatial environment (latitude, longitude and elevation). As expected, height growth of both species was positively related to temperature variables at the regional scale and with soil moisture and nutrient availability at the local scale. While height growth of trembling aspen was not significantly related to any of the temporal variables we examined, that of black spruce increased significantly with stand establishment date, the anomaly of the average maximum summer temperature between May-August, and atmospheric CO₂ concentration, but not with the Palmer Drought Severity Index. Furthermore, the increase of spruce height growth associated with recent climate change was higher in the western than in eastern part of British Columbia. This study demonstrates that the response of height growth to recent climate change, i.e., increasing temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentration, did not only differ with tree species, but

  12. The influence of recent climate change on tree height growth differs with species and spatial environment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yassine Messaoud

    Full Text Available Tree growth has been reported to increase in response to recent global climate change in controlled and semi-controlled experiments, but few studies have reported response of tree growth to increased temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂ concentration in natural environments. This study addresses how recent global climate change has affected height growth of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx and black spruce (Picea mariana Mill B.S. in their natural environments. We sampled 145 stands dominated by aspen and 82 dominated by spruce over the entire range of their distributions in British Columbia, Canada. These stands were established naturally after fire between the 19th and 20th centuries. Height growth was quantified as total heights of sampled dominant and co-dominant trees at breast-height age of 50 years. We assessed the relationships between 50-year height growth and environmental factors at both spatial and temporal scales. We also tested whether the tree growth associated with global climate change differed with spatial environment (latitude, longitude and elevation. As expected, height growth of both species was positively related to temperature variables at the regional scale and with soil moisture and nutrient availability at the local scale. While height growth of trembling aspen was not significantly related to any of the temporal variables we examined, that of black spruce increased significantly with stand establishment date, the anomaly of the average maximum summer temperature between May-August, and atmospheric CO₂ concentration, but not with the Palmer Drought Severity Index. Furthermore, the increase of spruce height growth associated with recent climate change was higher in the western than in eastern part of British Columbia. This study demonstrates that the response of height growth to recent climate change, i.e., increasing temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentration, did not only differ with tree

  13. Projection of Climate Change Influences on U.S. West Nile Virus Vectors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Heidi E; Young, Alex; Lega, Joceline; Andreadis, Theodore G; Schurich, Jessica; Comrie, Andrew

    2015-12-01

    While estimates of the impact of climate change on health are necessary for health care planners and climate change policy makers, models to produce quantitative estimates remain scarce. We describe a freely available dynamic simulation model parameterized for three West Nile virus vectors, which provides an effective tool for studying vector-borne disease risk due to climate change. The Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model is parameterized with species specific temperature-dependent development and mortality rates. Using downscaled daily weather data, we estimate mosquito population dynamics under current and projected future climate scenarios for multiple locations across the country. Trends in mosquito abundance were variable by location, however, an extension of the vector activity periods, and by extension disease risk, was almost uniformly observed. Importantly, mid-summer decreases in abundance may be off-set by shorter extrinsic incubation periods resulting in a greater proportion of infective mosquitoes. Quantitative descriptions of the effect of temperature on the virus and mosquito are critical to developing models of future disease risk.

  14. The influence of historical climate changes on Southern Ocean marine predator populations: a comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Younger, Jane L; Emmerson, Louise M; Miller, Karen J

    2016-02-01

    The Southern Ocean ecosystem is undergoing rapid physical and biological changes that are likely to have profound implications for higher-order predators. Here, we compare the long-term, historical responses of Southern Ocean predators to climate change. We examine palaeoecological evidence for changes in the abundance and distribution of seabirds and marine mammals, and place these into context with palaeoclimate records in order to identify key environmental drivers associated with population changes. Our synthesis revealed two key factors underlying Southern Ocean predator population changes; (i) the availability of ice-free ground for breeding and (ii) access to productive foraging grounds. The processes of glaciation and sea ice fluctuation were key; the distributions and abundances of elephant seals, snow petrels, gentoo, chinstrap and Adélie penguins all responded strongly to the emergence of new breeding habitat coincident with deglaciation and reductions in sea ice. Access to productive foraging grounds was another limiting factor, with snow petrels, king and emperor penguins all affected by reduced prey availability in the past. Several species were isolated in glacial refugia and there is evidence that refuge populations were supported by polynyas. While the underlying drivers of population change were similar across most Southern Ocean predators, the individual responses of species to environmental change varied because of species specific factors such as dispersal ability and environmental sensitivity. Such interspecific differences are likely to affect the future climate change responses of Southern Ocean marine predators and should be considered in conservation plans. Comparative palaeoecological studies are a valuable source of long-term data on species' responses to environmental change that can provide important insights into future climate change responses. This synthesis highlights the importance of protecting productive foraging grounds

  15. A statistical modelling study of the abrupt millennial-scale climate changes focusing on the influence of external forcings

    CERN Document Server

    Mitsui, Takahito

    2015-01-01

    Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events are abrupt millennial-scale climate changes mainly detected in the North Atlantic region during the last glacial cycle. The frequency of the DO events varied in time, supposedly because of changes in background climate conditions. Here, we investigate the influences of external forcings on DO events with statistical modelling. We assume two types of generic stochastic dynamical systems models (double-well potential-type and oscillator-type), forced by the northern hemisphere summer insolation change and/or the global ice volume change. The models are calibrated by maximizing their likelihood and compared using the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). Among the models, the stochastic oscillator model forced by both insolation and ice volume changes is favored by the NGRIP calcium ion data. The BIC scores provide positive evidence for the ice volume forcing in the presence of the insolation forcing but weak evidence for the insolation forcing in the presence of the ice volume for...

  16. Influence of Climatic Changes and Human Activities on the Salinization Process of Coastal Aquifer Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitra Rapti-Caputo

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available In the present research, two arid coastal zones of the Mediterranean region (mean annual precipitation about 440 mm/a, have been investigated for evaluating the qualitative and quantitative impact of both human activities and climatic changes on the groundwater resources and the hydrological cycle in general. In particular, the hydrographic network of the Akrotiri (Cyprus coastal aquifer system is strongly controlled by engineering handicrafts that have induced a quality worsening of the groundwater resources. Due to over-pumping in the central sector of the area, a lowering of the piezometric level of about 15 m has been observed. As a consequence, a salinization process has occurred in the coastal sector with a mean annual salinization velocity of the salty water front varying between 47 and 97 cm/a (period 1964-1996. Due to the high salinity values, the water is at present unsuitable for irrigation use. The second case study is represented by the alluvial plain of Licata (southern Sicily, Italy, where the evolution of the Salso River (in Italian the name means ’Salty River’ and the coastal dynamics, characterised by repeated marine transgressions and regressions, qualitatively and quantitatively influenced the underground water resources. Also the anthropogenic activities played a crucial role, especially the farming activity as it is largely documented by the occurrence of numerous greenhouses covering most of the plain. The water depth of the unconfined, mainly sandy, aquifer developed in the Quaternary deposits is between 0.3 m and locally 5 m from the surface, while the principal alimentation occurs via infiltration from precipitations and lateral outflow from the Salso River.

  17. Influence of climate change and trophic coupling across four trophic levels in the Celtic Sea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina Lauria

    Full Text Available Climate change has had profound effects upon marine ecosystems, impacting across all trophic levels from plankton to apex predators. Determining the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems requires understanding the direct effects on all trophic levels as well as indirect effects mediated by trophic coupling. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change on the pelagic food web in the Celtic Sea, a productive shelf region in the Northeast Atlantic. Using long-term data, we examined possible direct and indirect 'bottom-up' climate effects across four trophic levels: phytoplankton, zooplankton, mid-trophic level fish and seabirds. During the period 1986-2007, although there was no temporal trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO, the decadal mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST in the Celtic Sea increased by 0.66 ± 0.02 °C. Despite this, there was only a weak signal of climate change in the Celtic Sea food web. Changes in plankton community structure were found, however this was not related to SST or NAO. A negative relationship occurred between herring abundance (0- and 1-group and spring SST (0-group: p = 0.02, slope = -0.305 ± 0.125; 1-group: p = 0.04, slope = -0.410 ± 0.193. Seabird demographics showed complex species-specific responses. There was evidence of direct effects of spring NAO (on black-legged kittiwake population growth rate: p = 0.03, slope = 0.0314 ± 0.014 as well as indirect bottom-up effects of lagged spring SST (on razorbill breeding success: p = 0.01, slope = -0.144 ± 0.05. Negative relationships between breeding success and population growth rate of razorbills and common guillemots may be explained by interactions between mid-trophic level fish. Our findings show that the impacts of climate change on the Celtic Sea ecosystem is not as marked as in nearby regions (e.g. the North Sea, emphasizing the need for more research at regional scales.

  18. Mutual influence between human activities and climate change in the Tibetan Plateau during recent years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Mingyuan; Kawashima, Shigeto; Yonemura, Seiichiro; Zhang, Xianzhou; Chen, Shenbin

    2004-07-01

    It is well known that there is a vast expanse of grassland on the Tibetan Plateau, China. It is suggested that a major climatic factor limiting production of the grassland ecosystem is the low thermo-conditions on the Tibetan Plateau. An increase in temperature may therefore increase the productivity of grasslands on the Plateau. Monthly mean temperature and monthly precipitation data for recent years on the Tibetan Plateau were analyzed. It is clear that the increase in air temperature on the Plateau is greater than that in the whole China and East Asia. On the other hand, statistics show that the production of livestock or meat in the Tibetan Plateau has increased by one to three times since 1978, which means that there should be an equivalent increase in the consumption of plant biomass from the grassland. How is the "increased biomass" related to human activities and climate changes? This paper tries to clarify the relationship between human activities and climate change and to propose a possible answer by laying emphasis on the importance of grassland protection and CO 2 flux monitoring. It is suggested that there is a positive feedback in which degradation of grassland by overgrazing will increase potential evapotranspiration level thereby promoting the climate warming and the degradation process. This feedback should be considered seriously in the future.

  19. Long-term trends in tourism climate index scores for 40 stations across Iran: the role of climate change and influence on tourism sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roshan, Gholamreza; Yousefi, Robabe; Fitchett, Jennifer M.

    2016-01-01

    Tourism is a rapidly growing international sector and relies intrinsically on an amenable climate to attract visitors. Climate change is likely to influence the locations preferred by tourists and the time of year of peak travel. This study investigates the effect of climate change on the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) for Iran. The paper first calculates the monthly TCI for 40 cities across Iran for each year from 1961 to 2010. Changes in the TCI over the study period for each of the cities are then explored. Increases in TCI are observed for at least one station in each month, whilst for some months no decreases occurred. For October, the maximum of 45 % of stations demonstrated significant changes in TCI, whilst for December only 10 % of stations demonstrated change. The stations Kashan, Orumiyeh, Shahrekord, Tabriz, Torbat-e-Heidarieh and Zahedan experienced significant increases in TCI for over 6 months. The beginning of the change in TCI is calculated to have occurred from 1970 to 1980 for all stations. Given the economic dependence on oil exports, the development of sustainable tourism in Iran is of importance. This critically requires the identification of locations most suitable for tourism, now and in the future, to guide strategic investment.

  20. Long-term trends in tourism climate index scores for 40 stations across Iran: the role of climate change and influence on tourism sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roshan, Gholamreza; Yousefi, Robabe; Fitchett, Jennifer M

    2016-01-01

    Tourism is a rapidly growing international sector and relies intrinsically on an amenable climate to attract visitors. Climate change is likely to influence the locations preferred by tourists and the time of year of peak travel. This study investigates the effect of climate change on the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) for Iran. The paper first calculates the monthly TCI for 40 cities across Iran for each year from 1961 to 2010. Changes in the TCI over the study period for each of the cities are then explored. Increases in TCI are observed for at least one station in each month, whilst for some months no decreases occurred. For October, the maximum of 45% of stations demonstrated significant changes in TCI, whilst for December only 10% of stations demonstrated change. The stations Kashan, Orumiyeh, Shahrekord, Tabriz, Torbat-e-Heidarieh and Zahedan experienced significant increases in TCI for over 6 months. The beginning of the change in TCI is calculated to have occurred from 1970 to 1980 for all stations. Given the economic dependence on oil exports, the development of sustainable tourism in Iran is of importance. This critically requires the identification of locations most suitable for tourism, now and in the future, to guide strategic investment.

  1. Asking about climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise

    2014-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that climate change will strongly affect people across the globe. Likely impacts of and adaptations to climate change are drawing the attention of researchers from many disciplines. In adaptation research focus is often on perceptions of climate change...... and on vulnerability and adaptation strategies in a particular region or community. But how do we research the ways in which people experience changing climatic conditions, the processes of decision-making, the actual adaptation strategies carried out and the consequences of these for actors living and dealing...... with climate change? On the basis of a literature review of all articles published in Global Environmental Change between 2000 and 2012 that deal with human dimensions of climate change using qualitative methods this paper provides some answers but also raises some concerns. The period and length of fieldwork...

  2. Climate change and climate systems influence and control the atmospheric dispersion of desert dust: implications for human health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, Dale W.; Ragaini, Richard C.

    2010-01-01

    The global dispersion of desert dust through Earth’s atmosphere is greatly influenced by temperature. Temporal analyses of ice core data have demonstrated that enhanced dust dispersion occurs during glacial events. This is due to an increase in ice cover, which results in an increase in drier terrestrial cover. A shorter temporal analysis of dust dispersion data over the last 40 years has demonstrated an increase in dust transport. Climate systems or events such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Indian Ocean subtropical High, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and El Nino-Sothern Oscillation are known to influence global short-term dust dispersion occurrence and transport routes. Anthropogenic influences on dust transport include deforestation, harmful use of topsoil for agriculture as observed during the American Dust Bowl period, and the creation of dry seas (Aral Sea) and lakes (Lake Owens in California and Lake Chad in North Africa) through the diversion of source waters (for irrigation and drinking water supplies). Constituents of desert dust both from source regions (pathogenic microorganisms, organic and inorganic toxins) and those scavenged through atmospheric transport (i.e., industrial and agricultural emissions) are known to directly impact human and ecosystem health. This presentation will present a review of global scale dust storms and how these events can be both a detriment and benefit to various organisms in downwind environments.

  3. CO2 and fire influence tropical ecosystem stability in response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanahan, Timothy M.; Hughen, Konrad A.; McKay, Nicholas P.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Scholz, Christopher A.; Gosling, William D.; Miller, Charlotte S.; Peck, John A.; King, John W.; Heil, Clifford W.

    2016-07-01

    Interactions between climate, fire and CO2 are believed to play a crucial role in controlling the distributions of tropical woodlands and savannas, but our understanding of these processes is limited by the paucity of data from undisturbed tropical ecosystems. Here we use a 28,000-year integrated record of vegetation, climate and fire from West Africa to examine the role of these interactions on tropical ecosystem stability. We find that increased aridity between 28–15 kyr B.P. led to the widespread expansion of tropical grasslands, but that frequent fires and low CO2 played a crucial role in stabilizing these ecosystems, even as humidity changed. This resulted in an unstable ecosystem state, which transitioned abruptly from grassland to woodlands as gradual changes in CO2 and fire shifted the balance in favor of woody plants. Since then, high atmospheric CO2 has stabilized tropical forests by promoting woody plant growth, despite increased aridity. Our results indicate that the interactions between climate, CO2 and fire can make tropical ecosystems more resilient to change, but that these systems are dynamically unstable and potentially susceptible to abrupt shifts between woodland and grassland dominated states in the future.

  4. Climate change influences on the annual onset of Lyme disease in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monaghan, Andrew J; Moore, Sean M; Sampson, Kevin M; Beard, Charles B; Eisen, Rebecca J

    2015-07-01

    Lyme disease is the most commonly reported vector-borne illness in the United States. Lyme disease occurrence is highly seasonal and the annual springtime onset of cases is modulated by meteorological conditions in preceding months. A meteorological-based empirical model for Lyme disease onset week in the United States is driven with downscaled simulations from five global climate models and four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios to project the impacts of 21st century climate change on the annual onset week of Lyme disease. Projections are made individually and collectively for the 12 eastern States where >90% of cases occur. The national average annual onset week of Lyme disease is projected to become 0.4-0.5 weeks earlier for 2025-2040 (pStates exhibit larger shifts (1.0-3.5 weeks) compared to the Northeastern and upper Midwestern States (0.2-2.3 weeks) by 2065-2080. Winter and spring temperature increases primarily cause the earlier onset. Greater spring precipitation and changes in humidity partially counteract the temperature effects. The model does not account for the possibility that abrupt shifts in the life cycle of Ixodes scapularis, the primary vector of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi in the eastern United States, may alter the disease transmission cycle in unforeseen ways. The results suggest 21st century climate change will make environmental conditions suitable for earlier annual onset of Lyme disease cases in the United States with possible implications for the timing of public health interventions.

  5. The Influence of Land Surface Changes on Regional Climate in Northwest China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Xingkui; ZHANG Feng; Jason K.LEVY

    2007-01-01

    Land surface changes effect the regional climate due to the complex coupling of land-atmosphere interactions. From 1995 to 2000, a decrease in the vegetation density and an increase in ground-level thermodynamic activity has been documented by multiple data sources in Northwest China, including meteorological, reanalysis from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) satellite remote sensing data. As the ground-level thermodynamic activity increases, humid air from the surrounding regions converge toward desert (and semi-desert) regions, causing areas with high vegetation cover to become gradually more arid. Furthermore, land surface changes in Northwest China are responsible for a decrease in total cloud cover, a decline in the fraction of low and middle clouds, an increase in high cloud cover (due to thermodynamic activity) and other regional climatic adaptations. It is proposed that, beginning in 1995, these cloud cover changes contributed to a "greenhouse" effect, leading to the rapid air temperature increases and other regional climate impacts that have been observed over Northwest China.

  6. The influence of negative climate changes on physical development of urban and rural areas in Bosnia and Herzegovina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahman NURKOVIĆ

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The influence of negative climate changes on physical development of urban and rural areas of Bosnia and Herzegovina has been analysed in the paper. So, economy and society in urban and rural areas of Bosnia and Herzegovina are susceptible to environmental consequences of climate changes. In practice, this means that poorer countries in development of economic activities will suffer most due to climate changes, while some developed countries can be in a position to use new commercial possibilities. Presently, there is a significant scientific consensus that human activity affected the increase of atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, respectively the carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone and chlorofluorocarbon, as a result of global changes of climate that will probably change dramatically during the next centuries in Bosnia and Herzegovina. More and more intensive industrialisation and urbanisation, as well as tourism, a growing phenomenon of the 21st century, have numerous negative direct, indirect and multiplicative effects on flora and fauna habitats of Bosnia and Herzegovina. For all mentioned above, this paper tries to indicate to a need for more significant investing into tourism development, which is presently at a very low level of development in Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the past ten years a dynamical development of tertiary activities in urban and rural areas has been distinguished; among which shopping centres take a significant position. 

  7. Influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of European cities to flooding during high-intensity precipitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Høegh Ravn, Nanna; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2015-01-01

    owing to recent changes in urban land cover, under present and future climatic conditions. Estimated changes in impervious urban surfaces based on Landsat satellite imagery covering the period 1984–2014 are combined with regionally downscaled estimates of current and expected future rainfall extremes......The extent and location of impervious surfaces within urban areas due to past and present city development strongly affects the amount and velocity of run-off during high-intensity rainfall and consequently influences the exposure of cities towards flooding. The frequency and intensity of extreme....... Corresponding estimates for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios (2071–2100) are in the order of 40 and 100 %, indicating that land cover changes within cities can play a central role for the cities’ exposure to flooding and conversely also for their adaptation to a changed climate....

  8. Financing climate change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouwer, Laurens M; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2006-03-01

    This paper examines the topic of financing adaptation in future climate change policies. A major question is whether adaptation in developing countries should be financed under the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), or whether funding should come from other sources. We present an overview of financial resources and propose the employment of a two-track approach: one track that attempts to secure climate change adaptation funding under the UNFCCC; and a second track that improves mainstreaming of climate risk management in development efforts. Developed countries would need to demonstrate much greater commitment to the funding of adaptation measures if the UNFCCC were to cover a substantial part of the costs. The mainstreaming of climate change adaptation could follow a risk management path, particularly in relation to disaster risk reduction. 'Climate-proofing' of development projects that currently do not consider climate and weather risks could improve their sustainability.

  9. Climate change-induced impacts on urban flood risk influenced by concurrent hazards

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, A. N.; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    In coastal regions, several hazards may lead to floods, and if they occur concurrently, the damage will be higher than for the hazards individually. The paper outlines an approach for carrying out a risk analysis with several hazards and applies it on a case study in Greater Copenhagen where two...... and that climate change most likely will not increase the correlation. The overall change in flood return periods over a forecast horizon of 110 years are estimated to decrease by one to three orders of magnitude....

  10. Economic losses from US hurricanes consistent with an influence from climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada, Francisco; Botzen, W. J. Wouter; Tol, Richard S. J.

    2015-11-01

    Warming of the climate system and its impacts on biophysical and human systems have been widely documented. The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have also changed, but the observed increases in natural disaster losses are often thought to result solely from societal change, such as increases in exposure and vulnerability. Here we analyse the economic losses from tropical cyclones in the United States, using a regression-based approach instead of a standard normalization procedure to changes in exposure and vulnerability, to minimize the chance of introducing a spurious trend. Unlike previous studies, we use statistical models to estimate the contributions of socioeconomic factors to the observed trend in losses and we account for non-normal and nonlinear characteristics of loss data. We identify an upward trend in economic losses between 1900 and 2005 that cannot be explained by commonly used socioeconomic variables. Based on records of geophysical data, we identify an upward trend in both the number and intensity of hurricanes in the North Atlantic basin as well as in the number of loss-generating tropical cyclone records in the United States that is consistent with the smoothed global average rise in surface air temperature. We estimate that, in 2005, US$2 to US$14 billion of the recorded annual losses could be attributable to climate change, 2 to 12% of that year's normalized losses. We suggest that damages from tropical cyclones cannot be dismissed when evaluating the current and future costs of climate change and the expected benefits of mitigation and adaptation strategies.

  11. Climate change influences on the annual onset of Lyme disease in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monaghan, A. J.; Moore, S. M.; Sampson, K. M.; Beard, C. B.; Eisen, R. J.

    2015-12-01

    Lyme disease is the most commonly reported vector-borne illness in the United States. Lyme disease occurrence is highly seasonal and the annual springtime onset of cases is modulated by meteorological conditions in preceding months. A meteorological-based empirical model for Lyme disease onset week in the United States is driven with downscaled simulations from five global climate models and four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios to project the impacts of 21st century climate change on the annual onset week of Lyme disease. Projections are made individually and collectively for the 12 eastern States where >90% of cases occur. The national average annual onset week of Lyme disease is projected to become 0.4-0.5 weeks earlier for 2025-2040 (plife cycle of Ixodes scapularis, the primary vector of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi in the eastern United States, may alter the disease transmission cycle in unforeseen ways. The results suggest 21st century climate change will make environmental conditions suitable for earlier annual onset of Lyme disease cases in the United States with possible implications for the timing of public health interventions.

  12. Climate change or variable weather

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baron, Nina; Kjerulf Petersen, Lars

    2015-01-01

    Climate scenarios predict that an effect of climate change will be more areas at risk of extensive flooding. This article builds on a qualitative case study of homeowners in the flood-prone area of Lolland in Denmark and uses the theories of Tim Ingold and Bruno Latour to rethink the way we...... understand homeowners’ perception of climate change and local flood risk. Ingold argues that those perceptions are shaped by people’s experiences with and connections to their local landscape. People experience the local variability of the weather, and not global climate change as presented in statistical...... data and models. This influences the way they understand the future risks of climate change. Concurrently, with the theory of Latour, we can understand how those experiences with the local landscape are mediated by the existing water-managing technologies such as pumps and dikes. These technologies...

  13. Risk communication on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wardekker, J.A.

    2004-10-01

    For the title study use has been made of available scientific literature, results of new surveys and interviews. In the first part of the study attention is paid to the exchange of information between parties involved in climate change and differences in supply and demand of information. In the second part citizens' views on climate change, problems with communication on climate change, and the resulting consequences and options for communication are dealt with. In this second part also barriers to action that are related or influenced by communication are taken into consideration.

  14. The Drivers of Climate Change -- Tracking Global Greenhouse Gas Trends and their Warming Influence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, J. H.; Tans, P. P.; Montzka, S. A.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Hall, B. D.; Masarie, K. A.; Elkins, J. W.; Dutton, G. S.; Miller, B. R.

    2014-12-01

    Of the National Physical Climate Indicators, two stand out as primary drivers of climate change - the Global Monthly Average of Carbon Dioxide Concentration and the Annual Greenhouse Gas Index. Both of these are products of high quality, long-term, globally distributed monitoring of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. To support monitoring of the trends of these gases over decades, NOAA maintains the WMO World Calibration Scales for the major contributors to radiative forcing and its own universally accepted scales for most of the minor greenhouse gases. Maintenance of these scales over time ensures the consistency of measurements from decade to decade. Further quality control through use of internal and external comparisons of on-going measurements places tight constraints on spatial and temporal bias. By far the most influential greenhouse gas contributing to radiative forcing is carbon dioxide (CO2). Its amount at Mauna Loa is reported on-line daily and its global trend updated monthly on NOAA's global monitoring website and at climate.gov. This is one of the most closely watched records of atmospheric composition, as its accelerating rate of increase is a constant reminder that society has yet to deal successfully with its emissions of this gas. Much of CO2 emitted remains in the atmosphere for 1000s of years, which is why it is of substantial concern. But atmospheric CO2 is not alone in warming the planet and driving climate change. Many other gases contribute in a lesser way to this long-term trend and are captured along with CO2 in NOAA's Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI). The AGGI is a normalized compilation of the radiative forcing (RF) of five major long-lived greenhouse gases (96% of RF) and 15 minor gases (4% of RF). Because it does not include short lived gases (living in. This presentation discusses the development of these two indexes and their national and global use.

  15. Global Studies of the Sulfur Cycle Including the Influence of DMS and Fossil Fuel Sulfur on Climate and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penner, Joyce E.

    1998-01-01

    The indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosols, wherein aerosol particles are thought to increase cloud droplet concentrations and cloud lifetime, is the most uncertain component of climate forcing over the past 100 years. Here, for the first time, we use a mechanistic treatment of droplet nucleation and a prognostic treatment of the number of cloud droplets to study the indirect aerosol effect from changes in carbonaceous and sulfate aerosols. Cloud droplet nucleation is parameterized as a function of total aerosol number concentration, updraft velocity and a shape parameter, which takes into account the mechanism, of sulfate aerosol formation, while cloud droplet number depends on the nucleation as well as on droplet sinks. Whereas previous treatments have predicted annual average indirect effects between -1 and -2 W/sq m, we obtain an indirect aerosol effect between -0.14 W/sq m and -0.42 W/sq m in the global mean.

  16. Influence of climate and land use change on spatially resolved volatilization of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) from background soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komprda, Jiří; Komprdová, Klára; Sáňka, Milan; Možný, Martin; Nizzetto, Luca

    2013-07-01

    The subject of this study is the assessment of the influence of climate and land use change on the potential re-emission of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) from background and agricultural soils. A deterministic spatially and temporally explicit model of the air-surface exchange was created, fed with distributed data of soil and atmospheric concentrations from real measurements, and run under various scenarios of temperature and land use change for a case study area representative of central European conditions. To describe land use influence, some important features were implemented including effect of plowing, influence of land cover, temperature of soil, and seasonal changes of air layer stability. Results show that volatilization of pesticides from soil largely exceeded dry gas deposition in most of the area. Agricultural soils accounted for more than 90% of the total re-emissions both because of the generally higher soil fugacities (higher loads of chemicals and relatively low organic carbon content), but also due to physical characteristics and land management practices enhancing the dynamics of the exchange. An increase of 1 °C in air temperature produced an increase of 8% in the averaged total volatilization flux, however this effect can be neutralized by a change of land use of 10% of the arable lands to grassland or forest, which is consistent with projected land use change in Europe. This suggests that future assessment of climate impact on POP fate and distribution should take into consideration land use aspects.

  17. Influence of the North Atlantic oceanograghic and climatic parameters on the Spanish European Eel population recruitment: relationships in the past and for a future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribalaygua, Jaime; Pórtoles, Javier; Monjo, Robert; Díaz, Estíbaliz; Korta, María; Chust, Guillem

    2016-04-01

    The status of the European eel population is critical.; the annual recruitment of glass eel to European waters in 2015 is 1.2% of the 1960-1979 level in the 'North Sea' area, and 8.4% in the rest of Europe (ICES 2015) . There are a number of anthropogenic impacts potentially affecting eel population including commercial exploitation, habitat loss, dam and weir construction, hydropower, pumping stations and surface water abstractions. Furthermore, the first eel stages and larval migration and marine survival are heavily influenced by oceanic and climatic factors since the species breeds in the Sargasso Sea and migrates to the continental shelf of the Atlantic coast of Europe and North Africa. Therefore, the study of the relations between recruitment and oceanic conditions may allow to study the potential effect of climatic change on the future eel recruitment and therefore stock. In the present study, the relation between glass eel recruitment and oceanic and climatic factors has been studied. Historic glass eel catches data beginning in the 50s from two Mediterranean and two Atlantic estuaries have been used as a proxy of recruitment. The relation of catches with the main oceanographic and climatic factors identified in the literature was established using an ocean reanalysis, the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) and determined which variables are significantly related to the number of catches. The analysis shows significant relationships between catches and oceanic (Surface Downward Stress, Sea Water Temperature and Sea Water Velocity) and atmospheric (NAO Index, AMO Index) variables. Subsequently, we applied the results of three climate models (GFDL-ESM2M, CanESM2 and CNRM-CM5), associated with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under two simulations of climate change (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), both associated with the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC, for possible future influences on the eel. This research was funded by the Spanish

  18. Climate Change and Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chinowsky, P.; Arndt, Channing

    2012-01-01

    Decision-makers who are responsible for determining when and where infrastructure should be developed and/or enhanced are facing a new challenge with the emerging topic of climate change. The paper introduces a stressor–response methodology where engineering-based models are used as a basis...... four climate projection scenarios, the paper details how climate change response decisions may cost the Mozambican government in terms of maintenance costs and long-term roadstock inventory reduction. Through this approach the paper details how a 14% reduction in inventory loss can be achieved through...... the adoption of a proactive, design standard evolution approach to climate change....

  19. Climate changes influence free-living stages of soil-transmitted parasites of European rabbits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, Alexander D; Poole, Adam; Cattadori, Isabella M

    2013-04-01

    Climate warming has been suggested to augment the risk of infectious disease outbreaks by extending the seasonal window for parasite growth and by increasing the rate of transmission. Understanding how this occurs in parasite-host systems is important for appreciating long-term and seasonal changes in host exposure to infection and to reduce species extinction caused by diseases. We investigated how free-living stages of two soil-transmitted helminths of the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) responded to experimental changes in temperature by performing laboratory experiments with environmental chambers and field manipulations using open-top-chambers. This study was motivated by our previous observations that air temperature has increased over the last 30 years in our field site and that during this period intensity of infection of Graphidium strigosum but not Trichostrongylus retortaeformis was positively associated with this temperature increase. Laboratory and field experiments showed that both parasites accelerated egg development and increased hatching rate and larval survival in response to accumulating thermal energy. Both parasites behaved similarly when exposed to diverse temperature regimes, decadal trends, and monthly fluctuations, however, T. retortaeformis was more successful than G. strigosum by showing higher rates of egg hatching and larval survival. Across the months, the first day of hatching occurred earlier in warmer conditions suggesting that climate warming can lengthen the period of parasite growth and host exposure to infective stages. Also, T. retortaeformis hatched earlier than G. strigosum. These findings showed that seasonal changes in intensity, frequency, and duration of daily temperature are important causes of variability in egg hatching and larva survival. Overall, this study emphasizes the important role of climate warming and seasonality on the dynamics of free-living stages in soil-transmitted helminths and their

  20. Mitigating Climate Change with Ocean Pipes: Influencing Land Temperature and Hydrology and Termination Overshoot Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwiatkowski, L.; Caldeira, K.; Ricke, K.

    2014-12-01

    With increasing risk of dangerous climate change geoengineering solutions to Earth's climate problems have attracted much attention. One proposed geoengineering approach considers the use of ocean pipes as a means to increase ocean carbon uptake and the storage of thermal energy in the deep ocean. We use a latest generation Earth System Model (ESM) to perform simulations of idealised extreme implementations of ocean pipes. In our simulations, downward transport of thermal energy by ocean pipes strongly cools the near surface atmosphere - by up to 11°C on a global mean. The ocean pipes cause net thermal energy to be transported from the terrestrial environment to the deep ocean while increasing the global net transport of water to land. By cooling the ocean surface more than the land, ocean pipes tend to promote a monsoonal-type circulation, resulting in increased water vapour transport to land. Throughout their implementation, ocean pipes prevent energy from escaping to space, increasing the amount of energy stored in Earth's climate system despite reductions in surface temperature. As a consequence, our results indicate that an abrupt termination of ocean pipes could cause dramatic increases in surface temperatures beyond that which would have been obtained had ocean pipes not been implemented.

  1. Climate variability and change

    CERN Document Server

    Grassl, H

    1998-01-01

    Many factors influence climate. The present knowledge concerning the climate relevance of earth orbital parameters, solar luminosity, volcanoes, internal interactions, and human activities will be reported as well as the vulnerability of emission scenarios for given stabilization goals for greenhouse gas concentrations and the main points of the Kyoto Protocol

  2. Climate Change and Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-01

    expansion of large hydropower and reservoir construction can increase social resilience through associated economic development . However, the same...of the most vulnerable countries globally to the consequences of climate change, Vietnam is highly likely to experience a variety of negative...iii ABSTRACT Climate Change and Vietnam As one of the most vulnerable countries globally to the consequences

  3. Climate Change Crunch Time

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xie Zhenhua

    2011-01-01

    CLIMATE change is a severe challenge facing humanity in the 21st century and thus the Chinese Government always attaches great importance to the problem.Actively dealing with climate change is China's important strategic policy in its social and economic development.China will make a positive contribution to the world in this regard.

  4. Climate change in NE Mexico: influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norma Sánchez Santillán

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available An exploratory analysis of temperature, precipitation and evaporation records, in five localities of Tamaulipas state (NE Mexico, spanning from about 30s decade of XX century until first years of the XXI, is made by means of multivaried statistical techniques. A change point is detected in1964. By comparing the period former to this year with the period 1964-2002, a significant decrease of temperature is observed in four out of the five localities, in three ones there is a light increase of precipitation and in the another two it isgreater; finally, four of them have an important decrease in evaporation. According to the Köppen´s system of climatic classification adapted to the Mexican Republic, the climatetype changed in three out of the studied localities, passing from dry to warm sub-humid. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO is analyzed as a possible cause of this behavior. Theresults suggest that the statistical methodology used is suitable for long term climate studies.

  5. MM5 Simulations of the China Regional Climate During the LGM.Ⅰ: Influence of CO2 and Earth Orbit Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU yu; HE Jinhai; LI Weiliang; CHEN Longxun

    2008-01-01

    Using a regional climate model MM5 nested to an atmospheric global climate model CCM3, a series of simulations and sensitivity experiments have been performed to investigate the relative Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate response to different mechanisms over China. Model simulations of the present day (PD) climate and the LGM climate change are in good agreement with the observation data and geological records, especially in the simulation of precipitation change. Under the PD and LGM climate, changes of earth orbital parameters have a small influence on the annual mean temperature over China.However, the magnitude of the effect shows a seasonal pattern, with a significant response in winter. Thus,this influence cannot be neglected. During the LGM, CO2 concentration reached its lowest point to 200 ppmv. This results in a temperature decrease over China. The influences of CO2 concentration on climate show seasonal and regional patterns as well, with a significant influence in winter. On the contrary, CO2concentration has less impact in summer season. In some cases, temperature even increases with decreasing in CO2 concentration. This temperature increase is the outcome of decrease in cloud amount; hence increase the solar radiation that reached the earth's surface. This result suggests that cloud amount plays a very important role in climate change and could direct the response patterns of some climate variables such as temperature during certain periods and over certain regions. In the Tibetan Plateau, the temperature responses to changes of the above two factors are generally weaker than those in other regions because the cloud amount in this area is generally more than in the other areas. Relative to the current climate, changes in orbital parameters have less impact on the LGM climate than changes in CO2 concentration. However,both factors have rather less contributions to the climate change in the LGM. About 3%-10% changes in the annual mean temperature are

  6. Communities under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

  7. Analysis to significant climate change in aerosol influence domain of Beijing and its peripheral areas by EOF mode

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI; Xiaohui; XU; Xiangde; ZHANG; Shengjun; DING; Guoan

    2005-01-01

    Using the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) aerosol optical depth (AOD)data and the sunshine duration, fog days, Iow cloud cover (LCC), etc. meteorological data in 1979-2000 in North China, as well as empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode statistical analyses method, the winter aerosol distributive character of Beijing and peripheral city agglomeration and its influence effect on regional climate are investigated in this paper, especially the relation between aerosol influence effect and distinct change regions of eigenvectors of EOF mode. It is found from analyzing the regional distribution of the long-term averaged winter TOMS AOD that there is a large-scale relatively stable high value zone of aerosol concentration in the valley of the Beijing and peripheral U-shape megarelief. A high correlation area of AOD between Beijing and its southern peripheral exists in winter, and in this significant region of aerosol interaction, there is "in-phase" character of the interannual variations of winter AOD, fog days, and LCCs. It indicates that the variations of aerosol in Beijing and its peripheral areas have impacts on interannual changes of fog days and LCCs in this area. The EOF analyses of the meteorological data further reveal the climate change regions and long-term trends of winter sunshine duration-reducing, and LCC- and fog days-increasing in North China. The areas of significant changes of the first EOF eigenvectors (FEE) of sunshine duration, fog days, LCCs almost superpose on corresponding marked regions of interdecadal differences between the 1990s and 1980s, and all accord with the S-N zonal high value pattern and high correlation region of winter AOD in Beijing and its peripheral areas. Interannual variations of their associated time coefficients (ATC) are in phase with that of regional mean AOD, and both of them have a secular rising trend. Results by EOF mode analyses depict the regional climatic change principal character of winter sunshine

  8. Nitrogen cycle and ecosystem services in the Brazilian La Plata Basin: anthropogenic influence and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, M; Ortega, E; Bergier, I; Silva, J S V

    2012-08-01

    The increasing human demand for food, raw material and energy has radically modified both the landscape and biogeochemical cycles in many river basins in the world. The interference of human activities on the Biosphere is so significant that it has doubled the amount of reactive nitrogen due to industrial fertiliser production (Haber-Bosch), fossil fuel burning and land-use change over the last century. In this context, the Brazilian La Plata Basin contributes to the alteration of the nitrogen cycle in South America because of its huge agricultural and grazing area that meets the demands of its large urban centres - Sao Paulo, for instance - and also external markets abroad. In this paper, we estimate the current inputs and outputs of anthropogenic nitrogen (in kg N.km(-2).yr(-1)) in the basin. In the results, we observe that soybean plays a very important role in the Brazilian La Plata, since it contributes with an annual entrance of about 1.8 TgN due to biological nitrogen fixation. Moreover, our estimate indicates that the export of soybean products accounts for roughly 1.0 TgN which is greater than the annual nitrogen riverine exports from Brazilian Parana, Paraguay and Uruguay rivers together. Complimentarily, we built future scenarios representing changes in the nitrogen cycle profile considering two scenarios of climate change for 2070-2100 (based on IPCC's A2 and B2) that will affect land-use, nitrogen inputs, and loss of such nutrients in the basin. Finally, we discuss how both scenarios will affect human well-being since there is a connection between nitrogen cycle and ecosystem services that affect local and global populations, such as food and fibre production and climate regulation.

  9. Nitrogen cycle and ecosystem services in the Brazilian La Plata Basin: anthropogenic influence and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Watanabe

    Full Text Available The increasing human demand for food, raw material and energy has radically modified both the landscape and biogeochemical cycles in many river basins in the world. The interference of human activities on the Biosphere is so significant that it has doubled the amount of reactive nitrogen due to industrial fertiliser production (Haber-Bosch, fossil fuel burning and land-use change over the last century. In this context, the Brazilian La Plata Basin contributes to the alteration of the nitrogen cycle in South America because of its huge agricultural and grazing area that meets the demands of its large urban centres - Sao Paulo, for instance - and also external markets abroad. In this paper, we estimate the current inputs and outputs of anthropogenic nitrogen (in kg N.km-2.yr-1 in the basin. In the results, we observe that soybean plays a very important role in the Brazilian La Plata, since it contributes with an annual entrance of about 1.8 TgN due to biological nitrogen fixation. Moreover, our estimate indicates that the export of soybean products accounts for roughly 1.0 TgN which is greater than the annual nitrogen riverine exports from Brazilian Parana, Paraguay and Uruguay rivers together. Complimentarily, we built future scenarios representing changes in the nitrogen cycle profile considering two scenarios of climate change for 2070-2100 (based on IPCC's A2 and B2 that will affect land-use, nitrogen inputs, and loss of such nutrients in the basin. Finally, we discuss how both scenarios will affect human well-being since there is a connection between nitrogen cycle and ecosystem services that affect local and global populations, such as food and fibre production and climate regulation.

  10. North-south differences in Chinese agricultural losses due to climate-change-influenced droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiang, Zhang; Lanying, Han; Jingjing, Lin; Qingyan, Cheng

    2016-12-01

    One of the effects of global climate change is increase in the frequency and severity of drought, which strongly affects the Chinese agricultural production. In order to cope these changes more effectively, it is important to document and analyze the agricultural losses caused by drought. We collected and analyzed conventional meteorological data and agricultural statistics data, in order to outline trends in drought occurrence and decline in agricultural yield. Data were assembled for the period 1960-2010. The study pays particular attention to regional differences between northern and southern China. Our results show the drought-caused agricultural loss rates (DCALR) in China have increased by approximately 0.5% per decade in the past 50 years. The study area in this paper is for the whole of the People's Republic of China, minus the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau; when we analyzed regional differences, we found that losses increased by approximately 0.6% per decade in northern China, close to twice the increase in southern China. Moreover, drought risks and agricultural losses are rising faster in northern China. Our results also indicate that the agriculture in northern China is more sensitive to changes in precipitation, whereas the agriculture in southern China is more sensitive to temperature changes.

  11. Cuba confronts climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Gisela; Clark, Ismael

    2015-04-01

    Among environmental problems, climate change presents the greatest challenges to developing countries, especially island nations. Changes in climate and the resulting effects on human health call for examination of the interactions between environmental and social factors. Important in Cuba's case are soil conditions, food availability, disease burden, ecological changes, extreme weather events, water quality and rising sea levels, all in conjunction with a range of social, cultural, economic and demographic conditions.

  12. Climate change adaptation in Ethiopia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weldegebriel, Zerihun Berhane; Prowse, Martin

    Ethiopia is vulnerable to climate change due to its limited development and dependence on agriculture. Social protection schemes like the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) can play a positive role in promoting livelihoods and enhancing households’ risk management. This article examines......, they suggest the PSNP may not be helping smallholders diversify income sources in a positive manner for climate adaptation. The article concludes by arguing for further investigation of the PSNP’s influence on smallholders’ adaptation strategies....

  13. Climate Change Influences on Species Interrelationships and Distributions in High-Arctic Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    D. R., Klein; Bruun, H. H.; Lundgren, R.

    2008-01-01

    , reproduction, and dispersal of all life forms present. Climate-associated changes in the biotic communities of the region are altering inter-species interactions, notably pollination, seed dispersal and plant-herbivore relations. Sexual reproduction and dispersal of propagules, primarily seeds, are essential...... be of particular significance to long-distance seed dispersal. In Northeast Greenland, dispersal of viable seeds may frequently occur by passage through the guts of geese and musk oxen. Research at Zackenberg on the role of insects in pollination of flowering plants has shown that Diptera species, primarily flies......, dominate among the insect species visiting flowers each summer. Diptera, Lepidoptera (butterflies and moths), Hymenoptera (bumble bees and small wasps), and one Hemiptera (true bugs) species have constituted the primary pollinators at Zackenberg. Arctic willow Salix arctica, white arctic bell heather...

  14. Climate change and skin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balato, N; Ayala, F; Megna, M; Balato, A; Patruno, C

    2013-02-01

    Global climate appears to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Climate change can be caused by several factors that include variations in solar radiation received by earth, oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions, as well as human-induced alterations of the natural world. Many human activities, such as the use of fossil fuel and the consequent accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, land consumption, deforestation, industrial processes, as well as some agriculture practices are contributing to global climate change. Indeed, many authors have reported on the current trend towards global warming (average surface temperature has augmented by 0.6 °C over the past 100 years), decreased precipitation, atmospheric humidity changes, and global rise in extreme climatic events. The magnitude and cause of these changes and their impact on human activity have become important matters of debate worldwide, representing climate change as one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. Although many articles have been written based on observations and various predictive models of how climate change could affect social, economic and health systems, only few studies exist about the effects of this change on skin physiology and diseases. However, the skin is the most exposed organ to environment; therefore, cutaneous diseases are inclined to have a high sensitivity to climate. For example, global warming, deforestation and changes in precipitation have been linked to variations in the geographical distribution of vectors of some infectious diseases (leishmaniasis, lyme disease, etc) by changing their spread, whereas warm and humid environment can also encourage the colonization of the skin by bacteria and fungi. The present review focuses on the wide and complex relationship between climate change and dermatology, showing the numerous factors that are contributing to modify the incidence and the clinical pattern of many

  15. Influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of European cities to flooding during high-intensity precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skougaard Kaspersen, P.; Høegh Ravn, N.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Madsen, H.; Drews, M.

    2015-06-01

    The extent and location of impervious surfaces within urban areas due to past and present city development strongly affects the amount and velocity of run-off during high-intensity rainfall and consequently influences the exposure of cities towards flooding. The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall are expected to increase in many places due to climate change and thus further exacerbate the risk of pluvial flooding. This paper presents a combined hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing approach suitable for examining the susceptibility of European cities to pluvial flooding owing to recent changes in urban land cover, under present and future climatic conditions. Estimated changes in impervious urban surfaces based on Landsat satellite imagery covering the period 1984-2014 are combined with regionally downscaled estimates of current and expected future rainfall extremes to enable 2-D overland flow simulations and flood hazard assessments. The methodology is evaluated for the Danish city of Odense. Results suggest that the past 30 years of urban development alone has increased the city's exposure to pluvial flooding by 6% for 10-year rainfall up to 26% for 100-year rainfall. Corresponding estimates for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios (2071-2100) are in the order of 40 and 100%, indicating that land cover changes within cities can play a central role for the cities' exposure to flooding and conversely also for their adaptation to a changed climate.

  16. Olivine and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuiling, R.D.

    2012-01-01

    The greenhouse effect, thanks mainly to the water vapor in our atmosphere, has created a livable climate on Earth. Climate change, however, may potentially have dire consequences. It is generally assumed that the rise in CO2 levels in the atmosphere is the main culprit, although several other greenh

  17. Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate

  18. Solar influence on Earth's climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marsh, N.; Svensmark, Henrik

    2003-01-01

    An increasing number of studies indicate that variations in solar activity have had a significant influence on Earth's climate. However, the mechanisms responsible for a solar influence are still not known. One possibility is that atmospheric transparency is influenced by changing cloud properties...... via cosmic ray ionisation (the latter being modulated by solar activity). Support for this idea is found from satellite observations of cloud cover. Such data have revealed a striking correlation between the intensity of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and low liquid clouds (... and thereby influence the radiative properties of clouds. If the GCR-Cloud link is confirmed variations in galactic cosmic ray flux, caused by changes in solar activity and the space environment, could influence Earth's radiation budget....

  19. Climate change and compensation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint; Flanagan, Tine Bech

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a case for compensation of actual harm from climate change in the poorest countries. First, it is shown that climate change threatens to reverse the fight to eradicate poverty. Secondly, it is shown how the problems raised in the literature for compensation to some extent...... are based on misconceptions and do not apply to compensation of present actual harm. Finally, two arguments are presented to the effect that, in so far as developed countries accept a major commitment to mitigate climate change, they should also accept a commitment to address or compensate actual harm from...... in the future, then there is also moral reason to address these harms if they materialize now. We argue that these principles are applicable to climate change, and that given the commitment of wealthy countries to a "common but differentiated responsibility," they lead to a commitment to address or compensate...

  20. Population and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Landis MacKellar, F.; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2000-11-01

    Population and Climate Change provides the first systematic in-depth treatment of links between two major themes of the 21st century: population growth (and associated demographic trends such as aging) and climate change. It is written by a multidisciplinary team of authors from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis who integrate both natural science and social science perspectives in a way that is comprehensible to members of both communities. The book will be of primary interest to researchers in the fields of climate change, demography, and economics. It will also be useful to policy-makers and NGOs dealing with issues of population dynamics and climate change, and to teachers and students in courses such as environmental studies, demography, climatology, economics, earth systems science, and international relations.

  1. Criminality and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Rob

    2016-08-01

    The impacts of climate change imply a reconceptualization of environment-related criminality. Criminology can offer insight into the definitions and dynamics of this behaviour, and outline potential areas of redress.

  2. Climate change and compensation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint; Flanagan, Tine Bech

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a case for compensation of actual harm from climate change in the poorest countries. First, it is shown that climate change threatens to reverse the fight to eradicate poverty. Secondly, it is shown how the problems raised in the literature for compensation to some extent...... are based on misconceptions and do not apply to compensation of present actual harm. Finally, two arguments are presented to the effect that, in so far as developed countries accept a major commitment to mitigate climate change, they should also accept a commitment to address or compensate actual harm from...... climate change. The first argument appeals to the principle that if it is an injustice to cause risk of incurring harm in the future, then it is also an injustice to cause a similar harm now. The second argument appeals to the principle that if there is moral reason to reduce the risk of specific harms...

  3. Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hudecz, Adriána

    -operation and research into the common problems of the Northern Periphery. This report is an output of the ROADEX “Implementing Accessibility” project (2009-2012). It gives a summary of the results of research into adaptation measures to combat climate change effects on low volume roads in the Northern Periphery....... The research was carried out between January 2000 and March 2012. One of the biggest challenges that mankind has to face is the prospect of climate change resulting from emissions of greenhouse gases. These gases trap energy in the atmosphere and cause global surface temperatures to rise. This warming in turn...... causes changes in other climatic variables such as rainfall, humidity and wind speed that impact on the functioning of infrastructure such road networks. This paper discusses the climate changes predicted by the world’s meteorological organisations and considers how these may impact on the public...

  4. Vulnerability Assessment of Agri-ecotourism Communities as Influenced by Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanilyn A. Hidalgo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The growth of tourism in the Philippines can be largely attributed to nature-based destinations but communities in these areas largely depend on farming and fishing to sustain their day-to-day needs.  The need to capacitate the community’s social and human capital in addressing climate change impacts to their livelihood, properties and natural environment is deemed necessary to lessen their vulnerability issues in the management of agriecotourism destinations. The study aimed to 1. characterize and rank hazards that are likely to affect the nature-based tourism communities, 2. describe the nature-based tourism communities’ current sensitivity and exposure to climate stresses; and 3. estimate future vulnerability and risks of nature-based tourism communities.  Three agri-ecotourism communities were selected using five criteria such as attraction uniqueness, hazard type, risk level, tourism dependency and market potential.  The areas were subjected to tourism vulnerability case assessment focusing on services and energy; human health; food, security, water and agriculture; business and continuity; and biodiversity and culture.   Calaguas Island’s top hazards are typhoon, drought and strong wind.  Pecuaria Farm’s main hazards are drought, rat infestation and grass fire while Bulusan Lake’s major hazards are heavy rains and ash falls brought by volcanic eruption.  Generally, vulnerability is high in the human health, services and energy sectors of tourism. The vulnerability of the three agri-ecotourism sites was intensified by factors that merely characterize the kind of community they have: a high marketing dependency, b poor political will, c low level of awareness and preparedness, d poor farming practices and e lack of tourism-related livelihood options. Destinations with functioning agricultural areas are the most affected sites due to an estimated increase in the temperature and increase in rainfall precipitations.  Poverty

  5. Climate change adaptation in Ethiopia: to what extent does social protection influence livelihood diversification?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weldegebriel, Zerihun; Prowse, Martin Philip

    2013-01-01

    Social-protection programmes like the Productive Safety-Net Programme (PSNP) in Ethiopia can play a positive role in promoting livelihoods and enhancing risk management. This article uses propensity score matching to estimate its effect on income diversification. The results suggest that receivin...... in a positive manner for climate adaptation. The article concludes by arguing for the promotion of positive forms of income diversification and the further investigation of the PSNP’s influence on autonomous adaptation strategies.......Social-protection programmes like the Productive Safety-Net Programme (PSNP) in Ethiopia can play a positive role in promoting livelihoods and enhancing risk management. This article uses propensity score matching to estimate its effect on income diversification. The results suggest that receiving...... transfers from the PSNP, on average, did not increase farm or non-farm income but significantly increases natural-resource extraction (one component of off-farm income). While these results should be treated with caution, they suggest that the PSNP may not be helping smallholders diversify income sources...

  6. Quaternary fluvial response to climate change in glacially influenced river systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordier, Stéphane; Adamson, Kathryn; Delmas, Magali; Calvet, Marc; Harmand, Dominique

    2016-04-01

    Over the last few decades, many studies in Europe and other continents have focused on the fluvial response to climate forcing in unglaciated basins. However, glacial activity may have a profound impact on the behaviour of the fluvial systems located downstream. In comparison to ice-free basins, these systems are characterised by distinctive hydrological and sediment supply regimes. Over Quaternary timescales, the fluvial records are influenced by periglacial (in non-glaciated areas), proglacial, and paraglacial processes. Understanding the impacts of these processes on the formation and preservation of the Quaternary geomorphological and sedimentary archives is key for our understanding of glacial-fluvial interactions. We investigate the impact of Quaternary glacial activity on fluvial sediment transfer, deposition, and preservation. Using existing studies from across Europe, we create a database of glaciofluvial geomorphology, sedimentology, and geochronology. This is used to examine how glacial forcing of fluvial systems varies spatially in different basin settings, and temporally over successive Milankovitch cycles. In particular, we focus on the ways in which the primary glacial-fluvial depositional signal could be distinguished from periglacial and paraglacial reworking and redeposition.

  7. Incorporating anthropogenic influences into fire probability models: Effects of development and climate change on fire activity in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, M.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Waller, E.; Krawchuk, M.; Berck, P.

    2014-12-01

    The costly interactions between humans and natural fire regimes throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the uncertainties surrounding wildfire, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires. Models estimate an increase in fire occurrence between nine and fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of uncertainty in climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regime from 2000-2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates novel information about the distribution and characteristics of future plant communities without assuming a particular distribution, and improve on previous efforts by integrating dynamic estimates of population density at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of the total fire count, and that further housing development will incite or suppress additional fires according to their intensity. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase but at a slower than historical rate. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires may be tied to the assumption of static fuel loadings, and the use of proxy variables not relevant to plant community distributions. We also find considerable agreement between GFDL and PCM model A2 runs, with decreasing fire counts expected only in areas of coastal influence below San Francisco and above Los Angeles. Due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid deserts of the inland south. The broad shifts of wildfire between California's climatic regions forecast in this study point to dramatic shifts in the pressures plant and human communities will face by midcentury. The information provided by this study reduces the

  8. Research Advances of Impacts of Climate Changes on Crop Climatic Adaptability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Agriculture received most direct influences from climate changes. Because of climate changes, agricultural climate resources changed and thus influenced climate adaptability of agricultural products. The growth and output of crops were finally affected. The calculation method and application of agricultural products in recent years were summarized. Several questions about the response of agricultural crops to climate elements were proposed for attention.

  9. Influence of Climate Change on Winter Wheat Growth in North China During 1950-2000

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SONG Yanling; Elisabeth SIMELTON; CHEN Deliang; DONG Wenjie

    2005-01-01

    The crop model World Food Studies (WOFOST) was tuned and validated with meteorological as well as winter wheat growth and yield data at 24 stations in 5 provinces of North China from 1997 to 2003.The parameterization obtained by the tuning was then used to model the impacts of climate change on winter wheat growth for all stations using long-term weather data from 1950 to 2000. Two simulations were made, one with all meteorological data (rainfed) and the other without water stress (potential). The results indicate that the flowering and maturity dates occurred 3.3 and 3 days earlier in the 1990s than that in the 1960s due to a 0.65℃ temperature increase. The simulated rainfed yields show that the average drought induced yields (potential minus rainfed yields) have decreased by 9.7% over the last 50 years. This is to be compared with a 0.02% decrease in yield if the precipitation limit is lifted. Although the precipitation during the growing season has decreased over the last 50 years, the drought effects on the rainfed yields remained to be practically unchanged as the spring precipitation did not decrease markedly.

  10. Ocean Observations of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Don

    2016-01-01

    The ocean influences climate by storing and transporting large amounts of heat, freshwater, and carbon, and exchanging these properties with the atmosphere. About 93% of the excess heat energy stored by the earth over the last 50 years is found in the ocean. More than three quarters of the total exchange of water between the atmosphere and the earth's surface through evaporation and precipitation takes place over the oceans. The ocean contains 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere and is at present acting to slow the rate of climate change by absorbing one quarter of human emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, cement production, deforestation and other land use change.Here I summarize the observational evidence of change in the ocean, with an emphasis on basin- and global-scale changes relevant to climate. These include: changes in subsurface ocean temperature and heat content, evidence for regional changes in ocean salinity and their link to changes in evaporation and precipitation over the oceans, evidence of variability and change of ocean current patterns relevant to climate, observations of sea level change and predictions over the next century, and biogeochemical changes in the ocean, including ocean acidification.

  11. Poverty and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vink, G.; Franco, E.; Fuckar, N. S.; Kalmbach, E. R.; Kayatta, E.; Lankester, K.; Rothschild, R. E.; Sarma, A.; Wall, M. L.

    2008-05-01

    The poor are disproportionately vulnerable to environmental change because they have the least amount of resources with which to adapt, and they live in areas (e.g. flood plains, low-lying coastal areas, and marginal drylands) that are particularly vulnerable to the manifestations of climate change. By quantifying the various environmental, economic, and social factors that can contribute to poverty, we identify populations that are most vulnerable to poverty and poverty traps due to environmental change. We define vulnerability as consisting of risk (probability of event and exposed elements), resiliency, and capacity to respond. Resiliency captures the social system's ability to absorb a natural disaster while retaining the same basic structure, organization, and ways of functioning, as well as its general capacity to adapt to stress and change. Capacity to respond is a surrogate for technical skills, institutional capabilities, and efficacy within countries and their economies. We use a "climate change multiplier" to account for possible increases in the frequency and severity of natural events due to climate change. Through various analytical methods, we quantify the social, political, economic, and environmental factors that contribute to poverty or poverty traps. These data sets are then used to determine vulnerability through raster multiplication in geospatial analysis. The vulnerability of a particular location to climate change is then mapped, with areas of high vulnerability clearly delineated. The success of this methodology indicates that it is indeed possible to quantify the effects of climate change on global vulnerability to natural disasters, and can be used as a mechanism to identify areas where proactive measures, such as improving adaptation or capacity to respond, can reduce the humanitarian and economic impacts of climate change.

  12. Greenland climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Swingedouw, D.; Landais, A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate archives available from deep-sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that during the last decade (2000s...... regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. The magnitude and rate of future changes in Greenland temperature, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, may be faster than any past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Projections indicate that within one century Greenland may......), atmospheric and sea-surface temperatures are reaching levels last encountered millennia ago when northern high latitude summer insolation was higher due to a different orbital configuration. Concurrently, records from lake sediments in southern Greenland document major environmental and climatic conditions...

  13. Topologies of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is quickly becoming a ubiquitous socionatural reality, mediating extremes of sociospatial scale from the bodily to the planetary. Although environmentalism invites us to ‘think globally and act locally', the meaning of these scalar designations remains ambiguous. This paper explores...... the topological presuppositions of social theory in the context of global climate change, asking how carbon emissions ‘translate' into various sociomaterial forms. Staging a meeting between Tim Ingold's phenomenology of globes and spheres and the social topologies of actor-network theory (ANT), the paper advances...... a ‘relational-scalar' analytics of spatial practices, technoscience, and power. As technoscience gradually constructs a networked global climate, this ‘grey box' comes to circulate within fluid social spaces, taking on new shades as it hybridizes knowledges, symbols, and practices. Global climates thus come...

  14. Coping with climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zheng, Yuan; Byg, Anja

    2014-01-01

    found across villages regarding the degree of perceived sensitivity and responses despite similar exposure to climate extremes. These differences are partly related to the nature of events and varied socio-economic characteristics of households, which influence their vulnerability and ability to cope...

  15. Climatic change and river ice breakup

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beltaos, S. [Environment Canada, National Water Research Institute, Burlington, ON (Canada); Burrell, B. C. [New Brunswick Dept. of the Environment and Local Government, Sciences and Planning Division, Fredericton, NB (Canada)

    2003-07-01

    An overview of climatic factors and impact relative to river ice engineering and science is presented. An explanation of the fundamentals of climatic change is followed by a review of direct and indirect climatic influences that govern river ice breakup and related trends. Known responses of river ice to climatic change and potential future changes to ice breakup processes are described along with the probable ecological and socio-economic consequences of these changes. Changes in engineering approaches to accommodate the present ice regime and predicted changes in climatic variables that affect river ice processes and reduce the vulnerability of infrastructure and ecosystems to climatic change are examined. Future research on the links between river ice and stream ecology is suggested to identify ecological concerns that may result from changes in river ice regimes induced by climatic change. 60 refs., 3 figs.

  16. Climate Change: Good for Us?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oblak, Jackie

    2000-01-01

    Presents an activity with the objective of encouraging students to think about the effects of climate change. Explains background information on dependence to climate and discuses whether climate change is important. Provides information for the activity, extensions, and evaluation. (YDS)

  17. US CLIVAR Working Group: Arctic Change and Possible Influence on Mid-latitude Climate and Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, J. L.; Zhang, X.

    2015-12-01

    The Arctic has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification (AA). These profound changes to the Arctic system have coincided with a period of ostensibly more frequent events of extreme weather across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, including extreme heat and rainfall events and recent severe winters. The possible link between Arctic change and mid-latitude weather has spurred a rush of new observational and modeling studies. These studies have argued that heavy precipitation events and heat waves are at least partially attributable to Arctic warming. A growing number of recent studies even argue that recent extreme winter weather is related to AA. In part due to the high impact of extreme weather on our society, some of these studies linking AA to the increased frequency of extreme weather have garnered public and media attention. At the same time, uncertainties from the large intrinsic variability of the system, the short observational record due to the recentness of AA and the shortcomings of global climate models have also resulted in much skepticism in any argued links between AA and severe weather. This in turn has resulted in a number of workshops trying to frame the problem and laying the groundwork to improve our understanding of Arctic-mid-latitude linkages and accurate attribution of extreme weather events. Although these workshops identified existing problems and difficulties, and provided broad recommendations, they did not synthesize the diversified research results to identify where community consensus and gaps exist. Therefore we have assembled many of the leading scientists researching Arctic-mid-latitude linkages as part of a US CLIVAR working group. Through the three-year efforts of this working group, we will use the outcome of the previous workshops and newly planned activities to guide the synthesis efforts, coordinate on-going research to fill out key gaps, and provide specific

  18. Metabolic scope and interspecific competition in sculpins of Greenland are influenced by increased temperatures due to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seth, Henrik; Gräns, Albin; Sandblom, Erik; Olsson, Catharina; Wiklander, Kerstin; Johnsson, Jörgen I; Axelsson, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Ongoing climate change has led to an increase in sea surface temperatures of 2-4°C on the west coast of Greenland. Since fish are ectothermic, metabolic rate increases with ambient temperature. This makes these animals particularly sensitive to changes in temperature; subsequently any change may influence their metabolic scope, i.e. the physiological capacity to undertake aerobically challenging activities. Any temperature increase may thus disrupt species-specific temperature adaptations, at both the molecular level as well as in behavior, and concomitant species differences in the temperature sensitivity may shift the competitive balance among coexisting species. We investigated the influence of temperature on metabolic scope and competitive ability in three species of marine sculpin that coexist in Greenland coastal waters. Since these species have different distribution ranges, we hypothesized that there should be a difference in their physiological response to temperature; hence we compared their metabolic scope at three temperatures (4, 9 and 14°C). Their competitive ability at the ambient temperature of 9°C was also tested in an attempt to link physiological capacity with behaviour. The Arctic staghorn sculpin, the species with the northernmost distribution range, had a lower metabolic scope in the higher temperature range compared to the other two species, which had similar metabolic scope at the three temperatures. The Arctic staghorn sculpin also had reduced competitive ability at 9°C and may thus already be negatively affected by the current ocean warming. Our results suggest that climate change can have effects on fish physiology and interspecific competition, which may alter the species composition of the Arctic fish fauna.

  19. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change ref...

  20. Overheating risk assessment of naturally ventilated classroom under the influence of climate change in hot and humid region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Kuo-Tsang

    2013-04-01

    Natural ventilation (NV) is considered one of the passive building strategies used for reducing cooling energy demand. The utilization of nature wind for cooling down indoor thermal environment to reach thermal comfort requires knowledge of adequately positioning the building fenestrations, designing inlet-outlet related opening ratios, planning unobstructed cross ventilation paths, and, the most important, assessing the utilization feasibility base on local climatic variables. Furthermore, factors that influence the indoor thermal condition include building envelope heat gain, indoor air velocity, indoor heat gain (e.g. heat discharges from occupant's body, lighting fixture, electrical appliances), and outdoor climate. Among the above, the indoor thermal performance of NV building is significantly dependent to outdoor climate conditions. In hot and humid Taiwan, under college school classrooms are usually operated in natural ventilation mode and are more vulnerable to climate change in regard to maintain indoor thermal comfort. As climate changes in progress, NV classrooms would expect to encounter more events of overheating in the near future, which result in more severe heat stress, and would risk the utilization of natural ventilation. To evaluate the overheating risk under the influence of recent climate change, an actual top floor elementary school classroom with 30 students located at north Taiwan was modeled. Long-term local hourly meteorological data were gathered and further constructed into EnergyPlus Weather Files (EPWs) format for building thermal dynamic simulation to discuss the indoor thermal environmental variation during the period of 1998 to 2012 by retrospective simulation. As indoor thermal environment is an overall condition resulting from a series combination of various factors, sub-hourly building simulation tool, EnergyPlus, coupled with the above fifteen years' EPWs was adopted to predict hourly indoor parameters of mean radiant

  1. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmgren, K.; Karlen, W. [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography

    1998-12-01

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  2. Climate change matters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macpherson, Cheryl Cox

    2014-04-01

    One manifestation of climate change is the increasingly severe extreme weather that causes injury, illness and death through heat stress, air pollution, infectious disease and other means. Leading health organisations around the world are responding to the related water and food shortages and volatility of energy and agriculture prices that threaten health and health economics. Environmental and climate ethics highlight the associated challenges to human rights and distributive justice but rarely address health or encompass bioethical methods or analyses. Public health ethics and its broader umbrella, bioethics, remain relatively silent on climate change. Meanwhile global population growth creates more people who aspire to Western lifestyles and unrestrained socioeconomic growth. Fulfilling these aspirations generates more emissions; worsens climate change; and undermines virtues and values that engender appreciation of, and protections for, natural resources. Greater understanding of how virtues and values are evolving in different contexts, and the associated consequences, might nudge the individual and collective priorities that inform public policy toward embracing stewardship and responsibility for environmental resources necessary to health. Instead of neglecting climate change and related policy, public health ethics and bioethics should explore these issues; bring transparency to the tradeoffs that permit emissions to continue at current rates; and offer deeper understanding about what is at stake and what it means to live a good life in today's world.

  3. Climate Change and Future World

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    fresh water. Movements of migrants from northern Africa and the Middle-East are already a security problem for Europe . This phenomenon is likely to be...Climate Change Science Program , Climate Literacy – The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences, 3. (http://library.globalchange.gov/climate...06/2013. 21 U.S. Climate Change Science Program , Climate Literacy – The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences, 3. (http

  4. Climate change and amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corn, P. S.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species

  5. Adaptation to climate change and climate variability in European agriculture: The importance of farm level responses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, P.; Ewert, F.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Leemans, R.

    2010-01-01

    Climatic conditions and hence climate change influence agriculture. Most studies that addressed the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change have focused on potential impacts without considering adaptation. When adaptation strategies are considered, socio-economic conditions and farm managemen

  6. Energy and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-15

    Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

  7. Influence of Changing Rainfall Patterns on the Yield of Rambutan (Nephelium lappaceum L. and Selection of Genotypes in Known Drought-tolerant Fruit Species for Climate Change Adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablito M. Magdalita

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In fruit crop production, rainfall, water stress, temperature, and wind are key variables for success, and the present changes in rainfall patterns could affect the flowering and yield of the rambutan (Nephelium lappaceum L. Other fruit species like macopa (Syzygium samarangense, siniguelas (Spondias purpurea, and native santol or cotton fruit (Sandoricum koetjape remain productive despite extreme climatic changes. This study assessed the influence of rainfall on rambutan yield and evaluated and selected tree genotypes of known drought-tolerant fruit species. Rambutan yield in a selected farm in Calauan, Laguna, Philippines, dropped remarkably from 152.2 kg/tree in 2008 to 8.6 kg/tree in 2009. This reduction could be attributed to the high rainfall in April 2009 at 334.4 mm, and possibly other environmental factors like temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, and strong wind. Furthermore, wet months in 2009 also inhibited the flowering of rambutan. However, a low yield obtained in 2010 at 45.5 kg/tree could be partly attributed to the very low rainfall in May 2010 at only 9.1 mm. On the other hand, in relation to changing climate, selection of tree genotypes for use as varieties in known drought- and flood-tolerant fruit species based on important fruit qualities like sweetness, juiciness, and high edible portion was done. Among 103 macopa genotypes, Mc-13, 43, and 91 were selected and the best (i.e. , Mc-13 had sweet (7.15 °Brix and crispy fruits weighing 49.44 g, creamy white (RHCC 155 A, and had high edible portion (EP, 93.22%. Among 114 siniguelas genotypes, Sg-41, 42 and 105 were selected and the best selection (i.e., Sg-41, had sweet (12.50 °Brix and juicy fruit weighing 20.42 g, ruby red (RHCC 59 A, and had high EP (83.27%. Among 101 native santol genotypes, Sn-47, 59, and 74 were selected and the best selection (i.e. , Sn-59 had relatively sweet (5.56 °Brix and juicy fruits weighing 51.96 g, maize yellow (RHCC 21 B, and had

  8. Corporate Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    The American Chamber of Commerce, the People's Republic of China (AmCham-China) and the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai recently released "American Corporate Experience in a Changing China: Insights From AmCham Business Climate Surveys, 1999-2005." Excerpts of the report follow:

  9. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carmin, J.; Tierney, K.; Chu, E.; Hunter, L.M.; Roberts, J.T.; Shi, L.; Dunlap, R.E.; Brulle, R.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the financ

  10. Tackling Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Representatives from nearly 200 countries and regions have gathered in Durban,South Africa,for the 17th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 7th session of the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol.The meeting is the follow-up conference to tacklin

  11. Learning Progressions & Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Joyce M.; de los Santos, Elizabeth X.; Anderson, Charles W.

    2015-01-01

    Our society is currently having serious debates about sources of energy and global climate change. But do students (and the public) have the requisite knowledge to engage these issues as informed citizenry? The learning-progression research summarized here indicates that only 10% of high school students typically have a level of understanding…

  12. DTU Climate Change Technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    During 2008 and 2009, DTU held a workshop series focusing on assessment of and adaption to climate changes as well as on mitigation of green house gasses. In the workshops, a total of 1500 scientists, government officials and business leaders have outlined scenarios for technology development...

  13. Adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn

    2011-01-01

    framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed...... down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US2.3 to US2.3toUS7.......4 billion during 2003–2050. Our analysis identifies improved road design and agricultural sector investments as key ‘no-regret’ adaptation measures, alongside intensified efforts to develop a more flexible and resilient society. Our findings also support the need for cooperative river basin management...

  14. Impact Assessment of Ecosystem Influenced by Changing Global Climate and its National Management Practices II - Focusing on me bioclimatic model development of the forest -

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeon, S.W.; Park, Y.H; Chung, W.C.; Hideo, H.; Kiyoshi, T. [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    2001-12-01

    In order to assess the influences from climate change, lots of studies have been conducted in Asia/Pacific region recently. The analyzed contents in these studies have a wide range of uncertainty even though the results were limited to the direct influences. While the geographical resolutions of various data used in the model are important factors, integration and expansion of the basic physical and biological reactions is another problem. The results from the previous researches suggest that there will be some problems, which are not to reflect the climate change correctly due to the regional small scale and various utilization of land, if data of the existing large-scale influence model is applied to Korea as it is. This study adopts data of 5 large-scale GCM (Global Circulation Model) in order to find the special climate change pattern and estimates the influences from climate change based on the pattern. In the interpretation of the results from this study, therefore, it is necessary to apply the method, which simultaneously analyzes averages and ranges of the estimated influences by 5 GCM, when forecasting influences by scenarios in 2003, the third year of this study. On considering this background, even though the averages and transition ranges of GCM data in this study provide many suggestions for estimating the influences ranges of forest, their application should be conducted after the serious examination because they do not perfectly reflect the regional microclimate. 108 refs., 56 figs., 24 tabs.

  15. Study on the Future Climate Change and Its Influence on the Growth Stage and Yield of Wheat in Weifang City

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jing; YUAN; Jianping; XU; Lijuan; SUN; Xiuzhen; ZHANG; Xiaoli; WANG

    2015-01-01

    In order to study the trend of climate change in the future in Weifang,and analyze the impact of climate change on the local wheat production,the air temperature and precipitation in Weifang from 2021 to 2050 were simulated by using the regional climate model PRECIS.And then put the meteorological data into the crop model to simulate the growth of wheat under climate change conditions in the future.The results showed that there would be a trend of rising temperature and increasing precipitation in Weifang in the future.Climate warming would result in growth period of wheat to be ahead of schedule and yield reduction.If taking into account the effect of CO2,the yield of wheat would increase.

  16. The influence of climate change on the intensity of ice gouging at the Kara Sea bottom by hummocky formations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogorodov, Stanislav; Arkhipov, Vasily; Kokin, Osip; Natalia, Shabanova

    2016-04-01

    Sea ice as a zonal factor is an important passive and active relief-forming agent in the coastal-shelf zone of the Arctic and other freezing seas. The most dangerous process in relation to the hydrotechnical facilities is ice gouging - destructive mechanical impact of the ice of the ground, connected with the dynamics of the ice cover, formation of hummocks and stamukhas under the influence of hydrometeorologic factors and of the relief of the coastal-shelf zone. Underestimation of the ice gouging intensity can lead to damage of the engineering facilities, while excessive deepening increases the expenses of the construction. Finding the optimal variant and, by this, decreasing the risks of extreme situations is a relevant task of the science and practice. This task is complicated by the fact that the oil and gas infrastructure within the coastal and shelf areas of the freezing seas is currently being developed in the conditions of global climate change. In the present work, several results of the repeated sounding of bottom ice gouging microrelief within the area of the underwater pipeline crossing of the Baydaratskaya Bay, Kara Sea, are presented. Based on the results of the monitoring, as well as the analysis of literature sources and modeling it has been established that under the conditions of climate warming and sea ice reduction, the zone of the most intensive ice gouging is shifted landwards, on shallower water areas.

  17. Case grows for climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hileman, B.

    1999-08-09

    In the four years since the IPCC stated that 'the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate', evidence for anomalous warming has become more compelling, and as a result scientists have become more concerned that human-induced climate change has already arrived. The article summarises recent extra evidence on global temperatures, carbon dioxide measurements, ice shelf breakup, coral bleaching, unstable climates and improved climate models. At the time of the Kyoto conference, the US became keen on the idea that enhancing forest and soil carbon sequestration was a good way to offset emissions reduction targets. Congress is however under the opinion on that the Kyoto protocol presents a threat to the US economy, and senate is very unlikely to ratify the protocol during the Clinton Administration. The debate as to whether the US government should mandate major emission reduction or wait for more scientific certainty may continue for a number of years, but, growing concern of scientists and the public for the harmful effects of climate change may cause a change. 4 figs., 8 photos.

  18. Evaluating the influence of long term historical climate change on catchment hydrology – using drought and flood indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Refsgaard

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This study uses a 133 yr data set from the 1055 km2 Skjern River catchment in a western Danish catchment to evaluate: long-term past climate changes in the area; the capability of a conceptual hydrological model NAM to simulate climate change impacts on river discharge; and the occurrences of droughts and floods in a changing climate. The degree of change in the climatic variables is examined using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. During the last 133 yr the area has experienced a significant change in precipitation of 46% and a temperature change of 1.3 °C leading to (simulated increases in discharge of 103% and groundwater recharge of 172%. Only a small part of the past climatic changes was found to be correlated to the climatic drivers: NAO, SCA and AMO. The NAM model was calibrated on the period 1961–1970 and showed generally an excellent match between simulated and observed discharge. The capability of the hydrological model to predict climate change impact was investigated by looking at performances outside the calibration period. The results showed a reduced model fit, especially for the modern time periods (after the 1970s, and not all hydrological changes could be explained. This might indicate that hydrological models cannot be expected to predict climate change impacts on discharge as accurately in the future, as they perform under present conditions, where they can be calibrated. The (simulated stream discharge was subsequently analyzed using flood and drought indices based on the threshold method. The extreme signal was found to depend highly on the period chosen as reference to normal. The analysis, however, indicated enhanced amplitude of the hydrograph towards the drier extremes superimposed on the overall discharge increase leading to more relative drought periods.

  19. Increasing Mississippi river discharge throughout the twenty-first century influenced by changes in climate, land use and atmospheric CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, B.; Tian, H.; Ren, W.; Yang, J.; Yang, Q.; He, R.; Cai, W. J.; Lohrenz, S. E.

    2014-12-01

    Previous studies have demonstrated that changes in temperature and precipitation (hereafter climate change) would influence river discharge, but the relative importance of climate change, land use, and elevated atmospheric CO2 have not yet been fully investigated. Here we examined how river discharge in the Mississippi River basin in the 21st century might be influenced by these factors using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model driven by atmospheric CO2, downscaled GCMs climate and land use scenarios. Our results suggest that river discharge would be substantially enhanced (10.7-59.8%) by the 2090s compared to the recent decade (2000s), though large discrepancies exist among different climate, atmospheric CO2, and land use change scenarios. Our factorial analyses further indicate that the combined effects of land use change and human-induced atmospheric CO2 elevation on river discharge would outweigh climate change effect under the high emission scenario (A2) of Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Our study offers the first attempt to project potential changes in river discharge in response to multiple future environmental changes. It demonstrates the importance of land use change and atmospheric CO2 concentrations in projecting future changes in hydrologic processes. The projected increase river discharge implies that riverine fluxes of carbon, nutrients and pesticide from the MRB to the coastal regions would increase in the future, and thus may influence the states of ocean acidification and hypoxia and deteriorate ocean water quality. Further efforts will also be needed to account for additional environmental factors (such as nitrogen deposition, tropospheric ozone pollution, dam construction, etc.) in projecting changes in the hydrological cycle.

  20. Teaching Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donoghue, A.

    2011-09-01

    In giving public presentations about climate change, we face the barriers of mis-information in the political debate and lack of science literacy that extends to science phobia for some. In climate issues, the later problem is compounded by the fact that the science - reconstruction of past climate through the use of proxy sources, such as isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen - is complex, making it more challenging for general audiences. Also, the process of science, particularly peer review, is suspected by some to be a way of keeping science orthodox instead of keeping it honest. I approach these barriers by focusing on the data and the fact that the data have been carefully acquired over decades and centuries by dedicated people with no political agenda. I have taught elderhostel courses twice and have given many public talks on this topic. Thus I have experience in this area to share with others. I would also like to learn of others' approaches to the vast amount of scientific information and getting past the politics. A special interest group on climate change will allow those of us to speak on this important topic to share how we approach both the science and the politics of this issue.

  1. Challenging conflicting discourses of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fleming, Aysha; Vanclay, Frank; Hiller, Claire; Wilson, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    The influence of language on communication about climate change is well recognised, but this understanding is under-utilised by those seeking to increase uptake of action for climate change. We discuss the terms, discourse, resistance, and agency, to assist in developing ways to progress social acti

  2. Changing habits, changing climate : a foundation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Enright, W. [Canadian Inst. of Child Health, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2001-03-01

    If Canada intends to meet its greenhouse gas reduction target of 6 per cent below 1990 levels, a fundamental shift in energy use by Canadians is required. The health sector will also be required to change. Global climate change is expected to affect regions differently, some might get wetter, some might get warmer, and others still might get colder. Climate changes will influence a number of health determinants: the geographical range of disease organisms and vectors; temperature extremes and violent weather events; air, food and water quality; the stability of ecosystems. There is a requirement to strongly regulate the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases to limit health risks. Increased air pollution could negatively affect large numbers of people, especially asthma sufferers and people suffering from chronic respiratory ailments and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in precipitation and temperature could increase insect-borne diseases. Water sources could be badly affected by drought, flooding or increased glacial runoff. The thinning of the ozone layer could result in additional skin cancers, impaired vision and other diseases. The document explores the various impacts resulting from climate change. A chapter is devoted to each topic: air pollution, temperature extremes, extreme weather events, vector borne diseases, drought and increased evaporation, food supply and ecosystem range, sea level rise, stratospheric ozone depletion and describes the health impacts. In addition, a chapter deals with aboriginal communities. The topic of environmental refugees is discussed, followed by an historical perspective into climate change policy in Canada. The author concludes with adaptation measures. Further emphasis must be placed on priority topics such as the estimation of future emissions and modelling of climate processes. refs., tabs., figs.

  3. Improving leadership on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chandani, Achala

    2011-03-15

    The upcoming UN conference on climate change in Durban, South Africa throws a spotlight on African climate policy. As part of a knowledge-sharing initiative in Southern Africa, we assessed parliamentarians' needs for more information on climate threats and responses, and ways to improve their capabilities as key stakeholders influencing national and global decisionmaking. Funded by the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office and partnered with the Association of European Parliamentarians with Africa (AWEPA), IIED worked with parliamentarians in the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) — Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland — through interviews, literature surveys, field trips and workshops. Similar studies in Malawi and Scotland also fed into this project.

  4. Precipitation extremes under climate change

    CERN Document Server

    O'Gorman, Paul A

    2015-01-01

    The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models show that precipitation extremes intensify in response to a warming climate. However, the sensitivity of precipitation extremes to warming remains uncertain when convection is important, and it may be higher in the tropics than the extratropics. Several physical contributions govern the response of precipitation extremes. The thermodynamic contribution is robust and well understood, but theoretical understanding of the microphysical and dynamical contributions is still being developed. Orographic precipitation extremes and snowfall extremes respond differently from other precipitation extremes and require particular attention. Outstanding research challenges include the influence of mesoscale convective organization, the dependence on the duration considered, and the need to...

  5. Climate for Change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    around international networks. Despite the many initiatives taken by cities, existing research shows that the implementation of climate change actions is lacking. The reasons for this scarcity in practice are limited to general explanations in the literature, and studies focused on explaining...... and to investigate the institutional dynamics new institutional theory is used with an emphasis on examining institutional mechanisms in relation to building legitimacy for action. The concept of mechanisms can help explain how and why constraints on action occur, and the concept of legitimacy is useful to clarify...... the strategies used by officials to enable climate change action. A long running criticism of institutional theory is the emphasis on how institutions constrain actions rather than act as productive phenomena that facilitate action. Emergent strands within new institutional theory emphasise the role of agency...

  6. Climate Change Justice

    OpenAIRE

    Sunstein, Cass R.; Posner, Eric A.

    2007-01-01

    Greenhouse gas reductions would cost some nations much more than others and benefit some nations far less than others. Significant reductions would impose especially large costs on the United States, and recent projections suggest that the United States has relatively less to lose from climate change. In these circumstances, what does justice require the United States to do? Many people believe that the United States is required to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions beyond the point that is ...

  7. Confronting Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mintzer, Irving M.

    1992-06-01

    This book, which was published in time for the Earth Summit in Brazil in June 1992, is likely to make a huge impact on the political and economic agendas of international policy makers. It summarizes the scientific findings of Working Group I of the IPCC in the first part of the book. While acknowledging the uncertainties in subsequent chapters, it challenges and expands upon the existing views on how we should tackle the problems of climate change.

  8. Influence of anthropogenic alterations on geomorphic response to climate variations and change in San Francisco Bay-Delta and watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florsheim, J.L.; Dettinger, M.D.

    2004-01-01

    Global warming and attendant sea-level rise may soon impact geomorphic processes in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River and San Francisco Bay Delta systems. During the past two centuries, dramatic anthropogenic changes in sediment supply and pervasive structural controls on rivers and floodplains have altered geomorphic responses to floods throughout a zone that extends upstream from tidally influenced areas to dams that regulate flow. Current geomorphic responses to floods differ from natural responses due to historical actions that concentrated the pre-disturbance multiple-channel and flood-basin system into single channels isolated by levees from increasingly developed floodplains and flood bypass channels, altered flow and sediment regimes, and caused subsidence of leveed Delta Islands. A review of historic and current geomorphic responses to floods illustrates the dominance of structural controls on geomorphic changes in the lowland part of the Sacramento-San Joaquin system. Current climate-change projections for CA suggest that the total volume of snowmelt runoff that may be shifted from spring and added to winter flows is roughly 5 maf/yr, similar to the volume currently available for flood storage in Sierra Nevadan reservoirs. Changes in timing of reservoir releases to accommodate these changes could add to either the magnitude or duration of winter flood peaks, each causing different geomorphic responses. Increased wintertime flows that accompany already large floods could increase overbank flood extent, erosion, and sedimentation, or alternatively increase the depth and strength of confined flows and increase the risk of levee failures. Runoff released from reservoirs as a relatively constant addition to winter baseflow would increase the duration of bankfull or possibly "levee-full" flows. This scenario could lead to bank and levee failure through increased saturation and seepage erosion. Projected sea level rise of 1-2 m would compound vulnerability of

  9. Managing Climate Change Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB1 Aspendale, Victoria 3195 (Australia)

    2003-07-01

    Issues of uncertainty, scale and delay between action and response mean that 'dangerous' climate change is best managed within a risk assessment framework that evolves as new information is gathered. Risk can be broadly defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence; the latter measured as vulnerability to greenhouse-induced climate change. The most robust way to assess climate change damages in a probabilistic framework is as the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance. Because vulnerability is dominated by local factors, global vulnerability is the aggregation of many local impacts being forced beyond their coping ranges. Several case studies, generic sea level rise and temperature, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and water supply in an Australian catchment, are used to show how local risk assessments can be assessed then expressed as a function of global warming. Impacts treated thus can be aggregated to assess global risks consistent with Article 2 of the UNFCCC. A 'proof of concept' example is then used to show how the stabilisation of greenhouse gases can constrain the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds at both the both local and global scale. This analysis suggests that even if the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages can be estimated, the likelihood of being able to meet a cost-benefit target is limited by both physical and socio-economic uncertainties. In terms of managing climate change risks, adaptation will be most effective at reducing vulnerability likely to occur at low levels of warming. Successive efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases will reduce the likelihood of reaching levels of global warming from the top down, with the highest potential temperatures being avoided first, irrespective of contributing scientific uncertainties. This implies that the first cuts in emissions will always produce the largest economic benefits in terms of avoided

  10. Climate change and disaster management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Geoff; O'Keefe, Phil; Rose, Joanne; Wisner, Ben

    2006-03-01

    Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A focus that neglects to enhance capacity-building and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. Reducing vulnerability is a key aspect of reducing climate change risk. To do so requires a new approach to climate change risk and a change in institutional structures and relationships. A focus on development that neglects to enhance governance and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks.

  11. Assessment of climatic factors influence on interannual changes in the global surface air temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gusakova, Maria; Karlin, Lev

    2014-05-01

    A model to assess a number of factors such as TSI, albedo, cloudiness and greenhouse gases including water vapour affecting global surface air temperature (SAT) changes has been developed. To develop the model solar energy transformation in the atmosphere and the other radiation fluxes transformation were investigated. It's a common knowledge that some part of the incoming solar energy is reflected into space by the Earth's surface, aerosol and cloud particles. A contribution of these components to changes in the reflected solar energy was assessed on the basis of developed linear parameterization. During the period of 2001 - 2010, clouds were found to be the basic contributor to the changes in reflected shortwave radiation. Some part of outgoing terrestrial radiation is retained in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases, water vapour and cloudiness. A contribution of these components to changes in the absorbed longwave radiation was assessed on the basis of developed linear parameterization. It was estimated that the contribution of water vapour was dominant during the analyzed period. The developed parameterization of global albedo made it possible to assess the contribution of TSI to global SAT changes. Making use of the parameterizations listed above the model has been improved. The model calculations showed that the our projections of global SAT to 2030 were lower than IPCC estimates.

  12. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulation seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse in the 21st century of the thermohaline circulation is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  13. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulate seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse of the thermohaline circulation in the 21st century is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  14. Environmental Change: Precipitation and N, P, K, mg Fertilization Influences on Crop Yield Under Temperate Climate Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    László Phd, Dd. M.

    2009-04-01

    drought or to much rainfall did not cause significant differences on rye yield without fertilisation (average year: 1.66 t ha-1, drought year: 1.51 t ha-1, over rainfall year: 1.47 t ha-1). c. Yields varied from 2.01 to 3.04 t ha-1 under low (N: 30 kg ha-1 and NP, NK, NPK, NPKMg combinations) fertilisation input. Yields were decreased by 14% and 10% by drought and also by excess of rainfall. d. At mean fertilisation (N: 60 kg ha-1 and NP, NK, NPK, NPKMg combinations) level the maximum yield had reached 3.6 t ha-1 in average year. In years with excess rainfall, rye yields decreased as an average of fertilisation treatments by 20%. e. By an average year, at satisfactory fertilisation (N: 90 kg ha-1 and NP, NK, NPK, NPKMg combinations) level the maximum yield reached 3.8 t ha-1. But these yields were decreased with 17% and with 52% by drought and excess rainfall weather conditions respects. Negative effects (drought, excess rainfall) were diminished with 20-25% on the Mg treatments. f. Correlations between rye yields and the sums of precipitations during vegetation period (control: R = 0.99***, N: R = 0.84***, NP: R = 0.84***, NK: R = 0.91***, NPK: R = 0.85***, NPKMg: R = 0.65**) showed that optimum yields will develop in 430-470 mm range. Under and above these range of rainfall yields will decrease. Climate-rainfall-change and mineral fertilisation effects on potato yield a. Trial years (1963, 1965, 1967, 1969, 1971) were characterised by recurrent extremes of climate under vegetation seasons of potato. Three period had average rainfall, while two were very dry. b. All in all, droughts in the winter or summer half-year had much the same effect on yields. Precipitation deficiency in the winter could not be counterbalanced by average rainfall during the vegetation period, and its effect on the yield was similar to that of summer drought. c. Yield and quality were influenced by rainfall to a greater extent than by fertilisation. d. In vegetation periods poor in rainfall yield

  15. Does climate directly influence NPP globally?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Chengjin; Bartlett, Megan; Wang, Youshi; He, Fangliang; Weiner, Jacob; Chave, Jérôme; Sack, Lawren

    2016-01-01

    The need for rigorous analyses of climate impacts has never been more crucial. Current textbooks state that climate directly influences ecosystem annual net primary productivity (NPP), emphasizing the urgent need to monitor the impacts of climate change. A recent paper challenged this consensus, arguing, based on an analysis of NPP for 1247 woody plant communities across global climate gradients, that temperature and precipitation have negligible direct effects on NPP and only perhaps have indirect effects by constraining total stand biomass (Mtot ) and stand age (a). The authors of that study concluded that the length of the growing season (lgs ) might have a minor influence on NPP, an effect they considered not to be directly related to climate. In this article, we describe flaws that affected that study's conclusions and present novel analyses to disentangle the effects of stand variables and climate in determining NPP. We re-analyzed the same database to partition the direct and indirect effects of climate on NPP, using three approaches: maximum-likelihood model selection, independent-effects analysis, and structural equation modeling. These new analyses showed that about half of the global variation in NPP could be explained by Mtot combined with climate variables and supported strong and direct influences of climate independently of Mtot , both for NPP and for net biomass change averaged across the known lifetime of the stands (ABC = average biomass change). We show that lgs is an important climate variable, intrinsically correlated with, and contributing to mean annual temperature and precipitation (Tann and Pann ), all important climatic drivers of NPP. Our analyses provide guidance for statistical and mechanistic analyses of climate drivers of ecosystem processes for predictive modeling and provide novel evidence supporting the strong, direct role of climate in determining vegetation productivity at the global scale.

  16. The Influence of Climate Change on Atmospheric Deposition of Mercury in the Arctic—A Model Sensitivity Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaj M. Hansen

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Mercury (Hg is a global pollutant with adverse health effects on humans and wildlife. It is of special concern in the Arctic due to accumulation in the food web and exposure of the Arctic population through a rich marine diet. Climate change may alter the exposure of the Arctic population to Hg. We have investigated the effect of climate change on the atmospheric Hg transport to and deposition within the Arctic by making a sensitivity study of how the atmospheric chemistry-transport model Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM reacts to climate change forcing. The total deposition of Hg to the Arctic is 18% lower in the 2090s compared to the 1990s under the applied Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES-A1B climate scenario. Asia is the major anthropogenic source area (25% of the deposition to the Arctic followed by Europe (6% and North America (5%, with the rest arising from the background concentration, and this is independent of the climate. DEHM predicts between a 6% increase (Status Quo scenario and a 37% decrease (zero anthropogenic emissions scenario in Hg deposition to the Arctic depending on the applied emission scenario, while the combined effect of future climate and emission changes results in up to 47% lower Hg deposition.

  17. Climate change regional review: Russia

    OpenAIRE

    Sharmina, Maria; Anderson, Kevin; Bows-Larkin, Alice

    2013-01-01

    With climate change, an increasingly important focus of scientific and policy discourse, the Russian government has aimed to position the country as one of the leaders of the global process for addressing climate change. This article reviews a breadth of literature to analyze the politico-economic situation in Russia with regard to international climate change negotiations, related domestic policies, societal attitudes, and climatic change impacts on Russia's territory. The analysis demonstra...

  18. Late-Holocene vegetation and climate change in Jeju Island, Korea and its implications for ENSO influences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jungjae; Shin, Young Ho; Byrne, Roger

    2016-12-01

    Several recent studies suggest the hypothesis that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important factor controlling the Holocene East Asian Monsoon (EAM). However, the mechanism underlying this influence remains unclear due to the lack of high-resolution paleoclimate records from the coast of East Asia. Here, we provide a new record of late Holocene climate change in coastal East Asia based on multi-proxy evidence (pollen, organic content, magnetic susceptibility, grain size) obtained from a sediment core from Jeju Island, South Korea. As Jeju Island is strongly influenced by the Kuroshio flow, our sediment proxy records contain ENSO signals from the tropical Pacific. The study area was affected by dry/cool conditions in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) between 4350 and 1920 cal yr BP when El Niños were frequent, and by rapid warming/wetting and forestation since 1920 cal yr BP when La Niñas were more common. Jeju Island was relatively dry/cool between 2100 and 1600, 1300-1200, 1100-1000, 800-650, and 300-50 cal yr BP, as opposed to the Galápagos Islands, which were relatively wet/warm, reflecting the ENSO-related negative correlation between eastern and western margins of Pacific. Wet conditions may have prevailed during the early Little Ice Age (LIA) (620-280 cal yr BP) despite consistent cooling. This period of high precipitation may have been associated with the increased landfall of typhoons and with warmer Kuroshio currents under La Niña-like conditions. According to our results, EAM on the East Asian coastal margin was predominantly driven by ENSO activity, rather than by the precession effect. Paleoclimatic data from Jeju Island, with its insular position and closeness to warm Kuroshio currents, provide clear evidence of these ENSO influences.

  19. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    The absence of a global agreement on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions calls for adaptation to climate change. The associated paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change...

  20. Climate Change and Natural Disasters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Merkouris, Panos; Negri, Stefania; Maljean-Dubois, Sandrine

    2014-01-01

    Only 21 years ago, in 1992, the first ever convention on climate change, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was signed. The science behind studying climate change and its effects on the environment is not only mind-boggling but still in its infancy. It should come the

  1. Changes in acceleration rate of chloride ions depending on climatic conditions. Influence of rain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corvo, F.

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available Mild steel, copper and aluminium samples were exposed outdoors in two atmospheric test stations located in Havana, Cuba and Medellín, Colombia. Two parallel group of samples were formed, one for each station. They were submitted to accelerated outdoor test by intermittent spraying of a salt solution (SCAB test according to ISO 11474:98, receiving also the influence of the open atmosphere. The acceleration of corrosion rate of the three metals caused by the presence of chloride ions in both stations was determined. As expected, steel shows the higher corrosion rate and acceleration by chlorides, particularly at Cuban corrosion station. A remarkable difference in the acceleration rate of chloride ions for mild steel and copper between Cuban and Colombian acceleration rate of chloride ions of steel and copper. Steel corrosion products were analyzed by Mössbauer Spectroscopy. Water absorption was also studied. The presence of magnetite, goethite and other Iron compounds was determined.

    Probetas de acero de bajo carbono, cobre y aluminio se expusieron a la intemperie en dos estaciones de ensayo localizadas en la Habana, Cuba y Medellín, Colombia. Se formaron dos grupos paralelos de probetas, tomándose uno para cada estación. Ambos grupos fueron sometidos a ensayos acelerados a la intemperie mediante la aplicación de una niebla salina (SCAB TEST de acuerdo a la Norma ISO 11474:98, recibiendo también la influencia de la atmósfera abierta. Se determinó la aceleración de la velocidad de corrosión de los tres metales causada por la presencia de iones cloruro en ambas estaciones. Como era de esperar, el acero muestra la mayor velocidad de corrosión y aceleración por los iones cloruro, particularmente en la estación de ensayos cubana. Se determinó una notable diferencia en la velocidad de aceleración provocada por los cloruros para el acero de bajo carbono y el cobre entre las estaciones cubana y colombiana. La influencia de la lluvia

  2. The influence of land cover change in the Asian monsoon region on present-day and mid-Holocene climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Dallmeyer

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Using the general circulation model ECHAM5/JSBACH, we investigate the biogeophysical effect of large-scale afforestation and deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain on present-day and mid-Holocene climate. We demonstrate that the applied land cover change does not only modify the local climate but also change the climate in North Africa and the Middle East via teleconnections. Deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain enhances the rainfall in North Africa. In parts of the Sahara summer precipitation is more than doubled. In contrast, afforestation strongly decreases summer rainfall in the Middle East and even leads to the cessation of the rainfall-activity in some parts of this region.

    Regarding the local climate, deforestation results in a reduction of precipitation and a cooler climate as grass mostly has a higher albedo than forests. However, in the core region of the Asian monsoon the decrease of evaporative cooling in the monsoon season overcompensates this signal and results in a net warming. Afforestation has mainly the opposite effect, although the pattern of change is less clear. It leads to more precipitation in most parts of the Asian monsoon domain and a warmer climate except for the southern regions where a stronger evaporation decreases near-surface temperatures in the monsoon season.

    When prescribing mid-Holocene insolation, the pattern of local precipitation change differs. Afforestation particularly increases monsoon rainfall in the region along the Yellow River which was the settlement area of major prehistoric cultures. In this region, the effect of land cover change on precipitation is half as large as the orbitally-induced precipitation change. Thus, our model results reveal that mid- to late-Holocene land cover change could strongly have contributed to the decreasing Asian monsoon precipitation during the Holocene known from reconstructions.

  3. The influence of land cover change in the Asian monsoon region on present-day and mid-Holocene climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dallmeyer, A.; Claussen, M.

    2011-06-01

    Using the general circulation model ECHAM5/JSBACH, we investigate the biogeophysical effect of large-scale afforestation and deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain on present-day and mid-Holocene climate. We demonstrate that the applied land cover change does not only modify the local climate but also change the climate in North Africa and the Middle East via teleconnections. Deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain enhances the rainfall in North Africa. In parts of the Sahara summer precipitation is more than doubled. In contrast, afforestation strongly decreases summer rainfall in the Middle East and even leads to the cessation of the rainfall-activity in some parts of this region. Regarding the local climate, deforestation results in a reduction of precipitation and a cooler climate as grass mostly has a higher albedo than forests. However, in the core region of the Asian monsoon the decrease in evaporative cooling in the monsoon season overcompensates this signal and results in a net warming. Afforestation has mainly the opposite effect, although the pattern of change is less clear. It leads to more precipitation in most parts of the Asian monsoon domain and a warmer climate except for the southern regions where a stronger evaporation decreases near-surface temperatures in the monsoon season. When prescribing mid-Holocene insolation, the pattern of local precipitation change differs. Afforestation particularly increases monsoon rainfall in the region along the Yellow River which was the settlement area of major prehistoric cultures. In this region, the effect of land cover change on precipitation is half as large as the orbitally-induced precipitation change. Thus, our model results reveal that mid- to late-Holocene land cover change could strongly have contributed to the decreasing Asian monsoon precipitation during the Holocene known from reconstructions.

  4. Climate change influenced female population sizes through time across the Indonesian archipelago.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillot, Elsa G; Tumonggor, Meryanne K; Lansing, J Stephen; Sudoyo, Herawati; Cox, Murray P

    2013-01-01

    Lying at the crossroads of Asia and the Pacific world, the Indonesian archipelago hosts one of the world's richest accumulations of cultural, linguistic, and genetic variation. While the role of human migration into and around the archipelago is now known in some detail, other aspects of Indonesia's complex history are less understood. Here, we focus on population size changes from the first settlement of Indonesia nearly 50 kya up to the historic era. We reconstructed the past effective population sizes of Indonesian women using mitochondrial DNA sequences from 2,104 individuals in 55 village communities on four islands spanning the Indonesian archipelago (Bali, Flores, Sumba, and Timor). We found little evidence for large fluctuations in effective population size. Most communities grew slowly during the late Pleistocene, peaked 15-20 kya, and subsequently declined slowly into the Holocene. This unexpected pattern may reflect population declines caused by the flooding of lowland hunter/gatherer habitat during sea-level rises following the last glacial maximum.

  5. The greatest soda-water lake in the world and how it is influenced by climatic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadioǧlu, M.; Şen, Z.; Batur, E.

    1997-11-01

    Global warming resulting from increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the local climate changes that follow affect local hydrospheric and biospheric environments. These include lakes that serve surrounding populations as a fresh water resource or provide regional navigation. Although there may well be steady water-quality alterations in the lakes with time, many of these are very much climate-change dependent. During cool and wet periods, there may be water-level rises that may cause economic losses to agriculture and human activities along the lake shores. Such rises become nuisances especially in the case of shoreline settlements and low-lying agricultural land. Lake Van, in eastern Turkey currently faces such problems due to water-level rises. The lake is unique for at least two reasons. First, it is a closed basin with no natural or artificial outlet and second, its waters contain high concentrations of soda which prevent the use of its water as a drinking or agricultural water source. Consequently, the water level fluctuations are entirely dependent on the natural variability of the hydrological cycle and any climatic change affects the drainage basin. In the past, the lake-level fluctuations appear to have been rather systematic and unrepresentable by mathematical equations. Herein, monthly polygonal climate diagrams are constructed to show the relation between lake level and some meteorological variables, as indications of significant and possible climatic changes. This procedure is applied to Lake Van, eastern Turkey, and relevant interpretations are presented.

  6. Effects of climate change on the Swiss economy (national influences); Auswirkungen der Klimaaenderung auf die Schweizer Volkswirtschaft (nationale Einfluesse)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    This comprehensive final report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) attempts to estimate the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the Swiss economy. The authors state that no grave damage to the Swiss economy that could be caused by climate change are to be expected by the year 2030. Estimates for the year 2050 are presented and a prognosis showing a substantial increase of damage after this date is presented. Tourism and energy installations are noted as being the areas that will be most affected. Other areas affected include infrastructure, human health, water supplies, forestry and the farming economy. The methodologies used in the preparation of the study are described. Scenarios are presented and discussed. An overview of the costs incurred as a result of climate-related change is presented.

  7. Influence of Climate Changes on Vegetable Subject%气候变化对蔬菜学科的影响

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    邹学校; 蔡立湘; 彭新德; 朱校奇

    2011-01-01

    At first, the concepts of vegetable science and technology were introduced. Then, the influences of global warming on vegetable production and diversity of vegetable varieties were expounded, and the problems in responding to climate changes that vegetable subject faced to were analyzed. According to these problems, the countermeasures for vegetable subject responding to global wanning were proposed as follows: strengthening studies on layout planning for vegetable production; breeding new vegetable varieties with strong stress resistance; developing vegetable engineering theory and technology system; developing logistics, processing and comprehensive utilization techniques for vegetable.%介绍了蔬菜科学技术的概念,阐述了全球气候变暖对蔬菜生产、蔬菜品种多样性的影响及应对气候变化蔬菜学科面临的问题.在此基础上,提出了蔬菜学科应对全球气候变暖的对策:加强蔬菜生产布局规划研究;培育抗逆性强的蔬菜新品种;发展蔬菜工程学理论和技术体系;发展蔬菜物流、加工和综合利用技术.

  8. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2013-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  9. Assessment of regional-scale primary production in terrestrial ecosystems to estimate the possible influence of future climate change on biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noda, Hibiki; Nishina, Kazuya; Ito, Akihiko

    2015-04-01

    In recent decades, climate change including global warming has progressed worldwide and their influences on ecosystem structure and function that provide various goods and services to humans' well-being are of the greatest concerns. The ecosystem function and services are tightly coupled with the biodiversity particularly via food web and biogeochemical cycles, and here carbon is one of the central elements that also affect atmospheric CO2 concentration. Therefore mechanistic and quantitative understandings of the consequences among on-going climate change, ecosystem function, and biodiversity are urgent issues for seeking a better adaptation strategy. In order to tackle such tasks in the current environmental and ecological sciences, efforts have been made by numerous scientists and/or organizations to clarify the current status of and threats to biodiversity, responses of biogeochemical cycles to meteorological variables, and to construct climate change scenarios considering economic activities. However, to gain insights into the possible influence of climate change on biodiversity via altered ecosystem functions over broad temporal and spatial scales ranging from past to near-future periods and from landscape to global scales, further efforts to find the consequences are required, since the assessment of the influence of climate change on biodiversity is straightforward but difficult. For decades in climate change science, carbon flux between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems has attracted intensive attention as it connects the atmosphere and biosphere. Carbon flux in the biosphere is not only a process of biogeochemical material flux but also is an element to drive biological and ecological processes in ecosystems via food web beginning from photosynthetic carbon fixation by plants. Therefore focusing on photosynthetic production by plants, i.e. primary production of the ecosystem, may help us to estimate the possible influence of climate change on

  10. Climate Changes around the world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kahl, J.

    2009-07-01

    This presentation addresses several important aspects of the climate changes that are occurring around the globe. the causes of climate change are first reviewed, with illustrations of orbital oscillations, the atmospheric greenhouse effect, and aerosol effects. Observed changes in climate are next reviewed, both thought many millenia and during the past century. Distinctions are made between global warming and regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Changes in the frequency of weather extremes, including heat waves and tropical storms, are also discussed. (Author)

  11. Climate change and health

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Last, J.M. [Ottawa Univ., ON (Canada); Chiotti, Q.P. [Environment Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2001-12-31

    Adverse effects such as heat-related illnesses are felt on human health as a result of climate change. Those effects can also be the increased frequency and severity of extreme weather resulting in injury and death, a wider array of insect vectors for diseases, as well as increased risk of allergic, food-borne and water-borne diseases. Coastal ecosystems are altered, sea levels are rising and millions of people will need to relocate in the next century as a result of global warming. Keeping disaster plans, maintaining epidemiological monitoring and surveillance, and issuing advisory messages concerning the risks to human health are some of the responses required from public health officials. The establishment of standards, the development of policies on food and nutrition and the defining of priorities for research are important aspects that must be kept in mind. The authors indicated that multidisciplinary approaches are better suited to find solutions to the challenges encountered due to climate change than the narrow methods used in the past. refs., 4 tabs.

  12. Communicating Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, M. E.

    2009-12-01

    I will discuss the various challenges scientists must confront in efforts to communicate the science and implications of climate change to the public. Among these challenges is the stiff headwind we must fight of a concerted disinformation effort designed to confuse the public about the nature of our scientific understanding of the problem and the reality of the underlying societal threat. We also must fight the legacy of the public’s perception of the scientist. That is to say, we must strive to communicate in plainspoken language that neither insults the intelligence of our audience, nor hopelessly loses them in jargon and science-speak. And through all of this, we must maintain our composure and good humor even in the face of what we might consider the vilest of tactics by our opposition. When it comes to how best to get our message out to the broader public, I don’t pretend to have all of the answers. But I will share some insights and anecdotes that I have accumulated over the course of my own efforts to inform the public about the reality of climate change and the potential threat that it represents.

  13. Politics of climate change belief

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Donald Trump's actions during the election and his first weeks as US president-elect send a strong message about his belief in climate change, or lack thereof. However, these actions may reflect polarization of climate change beliefs, not climate mitigation behaviour.

  14. Habitat availability and gene flow influence diverging local population trajectories under scenarios of climate change: a place-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalm, Donelle; Epps, Clinton W; Rodhouse, Thomas J; Monahan, William B; Castillo, Jessica A; Ray, Chris; Jeffress, Mackenzie R

    2016-04-01

    Ecological niche theory holds that species distributions are shaped by a large and complex suite of interacting factors. Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to describe species' niches and predict the effects of future environmental change, including climate change. Currently, SDMs often fail to capture the complexity of species' niches, resulting in predictions that are generally limited to climate-occupancy interactions. Here, we explore the potential impact of climate change on the American pika using a replicated place-based approach that incorporates climate, gene flow, habitat configuration, and microhabitat complexity into SDMs. Using contemporary presence-absence data from occupancy surveys, genetic data to infer connectivity between habitat patches, and 21 environmental niche variables, we built separate SDMs for pika populations inhabiting eight US National Park Service units representing the habitat and climatic breadth of the species across the western United States. We then predicted occurrence probability under current (1981-2010) and three future time periods (out to 2100). Occurrence probabilities and the relative importance of predictor variables varied widely among study areas, revealing important local-scale differences in the realized niche of the American pika. This variation resulted in diverse and - in some cases - highly divergent future potential occupancy patterns for pikas, ranging from complete extirpation in some study areas to stable occupancy patterns in others. Habitat composition and connectivity, which are rarely incorporated in SDM projections, were influential in predicting pika occupancy in all study areas and frequently outranked climate variables. Our findings illustrate the importance of a place-based approach to species distribution modeling that includes fine-scale factors when assessing current and future climate impacts on species' distributions, especially when predictions are intended to manage and

  15. Climate Change and Water Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA tools and workbooks guide users to mitigate and adapt to climate change impacts. Various tools can help manage risks, others can visualize climate projections in maps. Included are comprehensive tool kits hosted by other federal agencies.

  16. Climate Change and Water Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    To take action on climate impacts, practitioners must understand how climate change will effect their region, and the country. Training provided here by EPA and partners allow users to better grasp the issues and make decisions based on current science.

  17. Climate Change and Poverty Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Simon

    2011-08-15

    Climate change will make it increasingly difficult to achieve and sustain development goals. This is largely because climate effects on poverty remain poorly understood, and poverty reduction strategies do not adequately support climate resilience. Ensuring effective development in the face of climate change requires action on six fronts: investing in a stronger climate and poverty evidence base; applying the learning about development effectiveness to how we address adaptation needs; supporting nationally derived, integrated policies and programmes; including the climate-vulnerable poor in developing strategies; and identifying how mitigation strategies can also reduce poverty and enable adaptation.

  18. Student Understanding of Climate Change: Influences of College Major and Environmental Group Membership on Undergraduate Knowledge and Mental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huxster, Joanna

    2013-01-01

    A consensus has been reached within the scientific community concerning the occurrence of climate change and its anthropogenic causes. Outside of this community, however, there continues to be considerable debate and confusion surrounding the topic. The government mitigation strategies and political leadership needed for this issue will require…

  19. A Review of the Foundational Processes that Influence Beliefs in Climate Change: Opportunities for Environmental Education Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brownlee, Matthew T.J.; Powell, Robert B.; Hallo, Jeffery C.

    2013-01-01

    Recently, many organizations involved in environmental education have initiated programs that aim to educate visitors or other publics who interact with nature-based resources about the impacts and landscape transformations occurring because of climatic changes. However, many psychological, human-evolutionary, and social-ecological processes that…

  20. Overcoming scepticism: Interacting influences of geographical location on perceived climate change adaptation measures to water resources in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, Ana; Garrote, Luis; Bardaji, Isabel; Iglesias, Pedro; Granados, Alfredo

    2016-04-01

    Though many climate adaptation efforts attempt to be defined with the participation of local communities, these strategies may be ineffective because among citizens affected equally, a local risk perception rather than scientific understanding largely drives adaptation choices. Further, the geographical location may polarize climate risk perceptions, making some adaptation efforts ineffective among sceptics. This study examines how the local degradation of the environment and water resources relates to adaption choices and in turn, climate change risk perception among a range of citizens in the Tagus basin, Spain (n = 300). We find respondents of less degraded areas have individualistic responses, and are significantly less likely to accept adaptation strategies than respondents in water stressed communities. The interaction between climate knowledge and adaptation choices is positively related to acceptance of adaptation choices in both groups, and had a stronger positive relationship among individualists. There is no statistical difference in acceptance of adaptation between individualists and communitarians at high levels of knowledge (top decile). Thus, education efforts specific to climate change may counteract divisions based geographical location and environmental stress.

  1. Philosophy of climate science part I: observing climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Frigg, Roman; Thompson, Erica; Werndl, Charlotte

    2015-01-01

    This is the first of three parts of an introduction to the philosophy of climate science. In this first part about observing climate change, the topics of definitions of climate and climate change, data sets and data models, detection of climate change, and attribution of climate change will be discussed.

  2. MM5 Simulations of the China Regional Climate During the LGM.Ⅱ: Influence of Change of Land Area, Vegetation, and Large-scale Circulation Background

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Yu; HE Jinhai; LI Weiliang; CHEN Longxun

    2008-01-01

    Using a regional climate model MM5 nested to an atmospheric global climate model CCM3, a series of simulations and sensitivity experiments have been performed to investigate the relative LGM climate response to changes of land-sea distribution, vegetation, and large-scale circulation background over China.Model results show that compared with the present climate, the fluctuations of sea-land distribution in eastern Asia during the LGM result in the temperature decrease in winter and increase in summer. It has significant impact on the temperature and precipitation in the east coastal region of China. The impact on precipitation in the east coastal region of China is the most significant one, with 25%-50% decrease in the total precipitation change during the LGM. On the other hand, the changes in sea-land distribution have less influence on the climate of inland and western part of China. During the LGM, significant changes in vegetation result in temperature alternating with winter increase and summer decrease, but differences in the annual mean temperature are minor. During the LGM, the global climate, i.e., the large-scale circulation background has changed significantly. These changes have significant influences on temperature and precipitation over China. They result in considerable temperature decreases in this area, and direct the primary patterns and characteristics of temperature changes. Results display that, northeastern China has the greatest temperature decrease, and the temperature decrease in the Tibetan Plateau is larger than in the eastern part of China located at the same latitude. Moreover, the change of large-scale circulation background also controls the pattern of precipitation change. Results also show that, most of the changes in precipitation over western and northeastern parts of China are the consequences of changing large-scale circulation background, of which 50%-75% of precipitation changes over northern and eastern China are the

  3. Climate change and marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Anthony J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Brander, Keith

    2012-01-01

    A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change...... ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC......) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change...

  4. Climate Change Mitigation A Balanced Approach to Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a fresh and innovative perspective on climate change policy. By emphasizing the multiple facets of climate policy, from mitigation to adaptation, from technological innovation and diffusion to governance issues, it contains a comprehensive overview of the economic and policy dimensions of the climate problem. The keyword of the book is balance. The book clarifies that climate change cannot be controlled by sacrificing economic growth and many other urgent global issues. At the same time, action to control climate change cannot be delayed, even though gradually implemented. Therefore, on the one hand climate policy becomes pervasive and affects all dimensions of international policy. On the other hand, climate policy cannot be too ambitious: a balanced approach between mitigation and adaptation, between economic growth and resource management, between short term development efforts and long term innovation investments, should be adopted. I recommend its reading. Carlo Carraro, President, Ca�...

  5. Preparing for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holdgate, M

    1989-01-01

    There is a distinct probability that humankind is changing the climate and at the same time raising the sea level of the world. The most plausible projections we have now suggest a rise in mean world temperature of between 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2030--just 40 years hence. This is a bigger change in a smaller period than we know of in the experience of the earth's ecosystems and human societies. It implies that by 2030 the earth will be warmer than at any time in the past 120,000 years. In the same period, we are likely to see a rise of 15-30 centimeters in sea level, partly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and partly to the expansion of the warmer seas. This may not seem much--but it comes on top of the 12-centimeter rise in the past century and we should recall that over 1/2 the world's population lives in zones on or near coasts. A quarter meter rise in sea level could have drastic consequences for countries like the Maldives or the Netherlands, where much of the land lies below the 2-meter contour. The cause of climate change is known as the 'greenhouse effect'. Greenhouse glass has the property that it is transparent to radiation coming in from the sun, but holds back radiation to space from the warmed surfaces inside the greenhouse. Certain gases affect the atmosphere in the same way. There are 5 'greenhouse gases' and we have been roofing ourselves with them all: carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25% above preindustrial levels and are likely to double within a century, due to tropical forest clearance and especially to the burning of increasing quantities of coal and other fossil fuels; methane concentrations are now twice their preindustrial levels as a result of releases from agriculture; nitrous oxide has increased due to land clearance for agriculture, use of fertilizers, and fossil fuel combustion; ozone levels near the earth's surface have increased due mainly to pollution from motor vehicles; and

  6. Conflict in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carleton, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, M.

    2016-05-01

    A growing body of research illuminates the role that changes in climate have had on violent conflict and social instability in the recent past. Across a diversity of contexts, high temperatures and irregular rainfall have been causally linked to a range of conflict outcomes. These findings can be paired with climate model output to generate projections of the impact future climate change may have on conflicts such as crime and civil war. However, there are large degrees of uncertainty in such projections, arising from (i) the statistical uncertainty involved in regression analysis, (ii) divergent climate model predictions, and (iii) the unknown ability of human societies to adapt to future climate change. In this article, we review the empirical evidence of the climate-conflict relationship, provide insight into the likely extent and feasibility of adaptation to climate change as it pertains to human conflict, and discuss new methods that can be used to provide projections that capture these three sources of uncertainty.

  7. Climate change and human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warren, John A; Berner, James E; Curtis, Tine

    2005-01-01

    or degradation of permafrost. Climate change can result in damage to sanitation infrastructure resulting in the spread of disease or threatening a community's ability to maintain its economy, geographic location and cultural tradition, leading to mental stress. Through monitoring of some basic indicators...... communities can begin to develop a response to climate change. With this information, planners, engineers, health care professionals and governments can begin to develop approaches to address the challenges related to climate change....

  8. Adapting agriculture to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Howden, S.M.; Soussana, J.F.; Tubiello, F.N.; Chhetri, N.; Dunlop, M.; Meinke, H.B.

    2007-01-01

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of exi

  9. Climate Change Influences Potential Distribution of Infected Aedes aegypti Co-Occurrence with Dengue Epidemics Risk Areas in Tanzania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mweya, Clement N.; Kimera, Sharadhuli I.; Stanley, Grades; Misinzo, Gerald; Mboera, Leonard E. G.

    2016-01-01

    Background Dengue is the second most important vector-borne disease of humans globally after malaria. Incidence of dengue infections has dramatically increased recently, potentially due to changing climate. Climate projections models predict increases in average annual temperature, precipitation and extreme events in the future. The objective of this study was to assess the effect of changing climate on distribution of dengue vectors in relation to epidemic risk areas in Tanzania. Methods/Findings We used ecological niche models that incorporated presence-only infected Aedes aegypti data co-occurrence with dengue virus to estimate potential distribution of epidemic risk areas. Model input data on infected Ae. aegypti was collected during the May to June 2014 epidemic in Dar es Salaam. Bioclimatic predictors for current and future projections were also used as model inputs. Model predictions indicated that habitat suitability for infected Ae. aegypti co-occurrence with dengue virus in current scenarios is highly localized in the coastal areas, including Dar es Salaam, Pwani, Morogoro, Tanga and Zanzibar. Models indicate that areas of Kigoma, Ruvuma, Lindi, and those around Lake Victoria are also at risk. Projecting to 2020, we show that risk emerges in Mara, Arusha, Kagera and Manyara regions, but disappears in parts of Morogoro, Ruvuma and near Lake Nyasa. In 2050 climate scenario, the predicted habitat suitability of infected Ae. aegypti co-occurrence with dengue shifted towards the central and north-eastern parts with intensification in areas around all major lakes. Generally, model findings indicated that the coastal regions would remain at high risk for dengue epidemic through 2050. Conclusion/Significance Models incorporating climate change scenarios to predict emerging risk areas for dengue epidemics in Tanzania show that the anticipated risk is immense and results help guiding public health policy decisions on surveillance and control of dengue epidemics. A

  10. Cinematic climate change, a promising perspective on climate change communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakellari, Maria

    2015-10-01

    Previous research findings display that after having seen popular climate change films, people became more concerned, more motivated and more aware of climate change, but changes in behaviors were short-term. This article performs a meta-analysis of three popular climate change films, The Day after Tomorrow (2005), An Inconvenient Truth (2006), and The Age of Stupid (2009), drawing on research in social psychology, human agency, and media effect theory in order to formulate a rationale about how mass media communication shapes our everyday life experience. This article highlights the factors with which science blends in the reception of the three climate change films and expands the range of options considered in order to encourage people to engage in climate change mitigation actions.

  11. Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble

    OpenAIRE

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Giorgi, Filippo

    2012-01-01

    We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots thro...

  12. Influence of hydrological modelling strategies on the diagnosis of the impact of climate change on water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seiller, Grégory; Roy, René; Anctil, François

    2016-04-01

    Uncertainties related to the assessment of the impacts of climate change on water resources are large, from multiple sources, and lead to diagnoses sometimes difficult to interpret. Therefore, the quantification of these uncertainties is a key element to yield confidence in the analyses and to provide water managers with valuable information. This research specifically evaluates the sensitivity of future water resources projections to the choice of hydrological modelling strategies, on thirty-seven watersheds in the Province of Québec, Canada. These modelling strategies mainly focus on calibration and hydrological model choices, as well as individual versus ensemble approaches. Twenty lumped hydrological models, representing a wide range of operational options, are calibrated with three objective functions on six historical calibration periods. The hydrological models are forced with 122 climate simulations corresponding to four RCP and twenty-nine GCM from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5), provided by the Canadian consortium Ouranos. Two bias correction techniques are also evaluated and lead to future projections in the 2041-2070 period. Results show that the diagnosis of the impacts of climate change on water resources are quite sensitive to the hydrological models selection and calibration strategies. This statement is particularly true when evaluating changes in an absolute way. Multimodel approaches offer the best options in terms of calibration performance and robustness on contrasted climate conditions. Hydrological indicators, dedicated to water management, are sensitive to the calibration objective functions and period selection. Overall, these results illustrate the need to provide water managers with detailed information on relative changes analysis, but also absolute changes values, especially for hydrological indicators acting as security policy thresholds.

  13. Sewer Systems and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Brandsma, T.

    1993-01-01

    In this article the impact of climate change on the overflows of sewer systems is assessed. The emphasis is on the overflows of combined sewer systems. The purpose is twofold: first, to obtain a first-order estimate of the impact of climate change on overflows of sewer systems; and second, to obtain insight into the relevant meteorological variables that are important with respect to climate change. A reservoir model is used to assess the impact of climate change on several combinations of st...

  14. Understanding Controversies in Urban Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baron, Nina; Petersen, Lars Kjerulf

    2015-01-01

    This article explores the controversies that exist in urban climate change adaptation and how these controversies influence the role of homeowners in urban adaptation planning. A concrete SUDS project in a housing cooperative in Copenhagen has been used as a case study thereby investigating...... on the actor-network inspired theory of “urban green assemblages” we argue that at least three different assemblages can be identified in urban climate change adaptation. Each assemblage frames problems and responses differently, and thereby assigns different types of roles to homeowners. As climate change...... is a problem of unknown character and outcome in the future, we argue that it can be problematic if one way of framing urban climate change adaptation overrules the others. Some understandings of climate problems and adaptation options may become less influential, even though they could contribute to creating...

  15. Information Seeking about Global Climate Change among Adolescents: The Role of Risk Perceptions, Efficacy Beliefs and Parental Influences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mead, Erin; Roser-Renouf, Connie; Rimal, Rajiv N; Flora, June A; Maibach, Edward W; Leiserowitz, Anthony

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change is likely to have significant impacts on public health. Effective communication is critical to informing public decision making and behavior to mitigate climate change. An effective method of audience segmentation, the risk perception attitude (RPA) framework has been previously tested with other health behaviors and classifies people into 4 groups on the basis of their perceptions of risk and beliefs about personal efficacy. The 4 groups - indifference (low risk, weak efficacy), proactive (low risk, strong efficacy), avoidance (high risk, weak efficacy), and responsive (high risk, strong efficacy) - are hypothesized to differ in their self-protective behaviors and in their motivations to seek information. In this paper, we extend the RPA framework in two ways. First, we use it at the household level to determine whether parental classifications into the 4 groups are associated with their teenage children's classification into the same 4 groups. Second, we predict adolescent information-seeking behaviors on the basis of their and their parents' membership in the 4 RPA groups. Results (N = 523 parent-adolescent pairs) indicated that parental membership in the 4 RPA groups was significantly associated with children's membership in the same 4 groups. Furthermore, the RPA framework was a significant predictor of adolescent information-seeking: those in the responsive and avoidance groups sought more information on climate change than the indifference group. Family communication on global warming was positively associated with adolescents' information-seeking. Implications for interventions are discussed.

  16. Cave temperatures and global climatic change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badino Giovanni

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The physical processes that establish the cave temperature are briefly discussed, showing that cave temperature is generally strictly connected with the external climate. The Global Climatic changes can then influence also the underground climate. It is shown that the mountain thermal inertia causes a delay between the two climates and then a thermal unbalance between the cave and the atmosphere. As a consequence there is a net energy flux from the atmosphere to the mountain, larger than the geothermal one, which is deposited mainly in the epidermal parts of caves.

  17. Influence of high-order mechanics on simulation of glacier response to climate change: insights from Haig Glacier, Canadian Rocky Mountains

    OpenAIRE

    S. Adhikari; Marshall, S. J.

    2013-01-01

    Evolution of glaciers in response to climate change has mostly been simulated using simplified dynamical models. Because these models do not account for the influence of high-order physics, corresponding results may exhibit some biases. For Haig Glacier in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, we test this hypothesis by comparing simulation results obtained from 3-D numerical models that deal with different assumptions concerning physics, ranging ...

  18. Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

    2014-12-01

    Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

  19. Climate Change and Collective Violence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Barry S; Sidel, Victor W; Patz, Jonathan A

    2017-03-20

    Climate change is causing increases in temperature, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and other environmental impacts. It is also causing or contributing to heat-related disorders, respiratory and allergic disorders, infectious diseases, malnutrition due to food insecurity, and mental health disorders. In addition, increasing evidence indicates that climate change is causally associated with collective violence, generally in combination with other causal factors. Increased temperatures and extremes of precipitation with their associated consequences, including resultant scarcity of cropland and other key environmental resources, are major pathways by which climate change leads to collective violence. Public health professionals can help prevent collective violence due to climate change (a) by supporting mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, (b) by promoting adaptation measures to address the consequences of climate change and to improve community resilience, and

  20. Impact of Real-world Factors Influencing Investment Decisions on the Costs and Distribution of Climate Change Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmonds, J.; Iyer, G.; McJeon, H. C.; Leon, C.; Hultman, N.

    2015-12-01

    Strategies to mitigate dangerous anthropogenic climate change require a dramatic transformation of the energy system to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, that in turn requires large-scale investments. Investment decisions depend not only on investment capital availability but also on investment risks. A number of factors such as national policy environments, quality of public and private institutions, sector, firm and technology specific characteristics can affect investors' assessments of risks, leading to a wide variation in the business climate for investment. Such heterogeneity in investment risks can have important implications, as investors usually respond to risks by requiring higher returns for riskier projects; delaying or forgoing the investments; or preferring to invest in existing, familiar projects. We study the impact of variation in investment risks on regional patterns of emissions mitigation, the cost of emissions mitigation and patterns of technology deployment. We modify an integrated assessment model, widely used in global climate policy analyses (the Global Change Assessment Model) and incorporate decisions on investments based on risks along two dimensions. Along the first dimension, we vary perceived risks associated with particular technologies. To do so, we assign a higher cost of capital for investment in low-carbon technologies as these involve intrinsically higher levels of regulatory and market risk. The second dimension uses a proxy to vary investment risks across regions, based on an institutional quality metric published by the World Economic Forum. Explicit representation of investment risks has two major effects. First, it raises the cost of emissions mitigation relative to a world with uniform investment risks. Second, it shifts the pattern of emissions mitigation, with industrialized countries mitigating more, and developing countries mitigating less. Our results suggest that institutional reforms aimed at lowering investment

  1. Climate change influence on organic carbon remobilization, transport and burial in mangrove forests of Everglades National Park, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smoak, J. M.; Breithaupt, J.; Smith, T. J.; Sanders, C. J.

    2013-05-01

    Mangrove ecosystems store large quantities of organic carbon (OC), burying it in their soils at a greater rate than terrestrial forests, thus providing an important negative climate change feedback. However, mangrove ecosystem response to climate change-induced stressors will determine if mangrove ecosystems continue to be a sink for OC. The threats of rising sea level outpacing mangrove forest soil accretion and the increased wave energy associated with this rise are two potential climate change stressors that may alter the carbon balance in mangrove ecosystems. The threat from wave energy is amplified during storm events, which may become more intense and/or frequent with climate change. Climate change-amplified storms could increasingly damage mangrove forests along the coastline, remobilizing and exposing previously buried OC to oxidation, and contribute to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We investigate the fate of this remobilized OC by examining soil cores from two sites within Everglades National Park. Soil accretion rates and OC burial rates within a storm surge deposit are compared to long-term rates (i.e., last 100 years). The sites are 4 and 10 km inland from the coast and data show these mangrove soils are accreting at a rate sufficient to keep pace with the current rate of sea-level rise. The accretion rates range from 2.5 to 3.6 mm yr-1 and are much greater within the storm surge deposit, reaching as high as 6.5 mm yr-1. We also discovered enhanced rates of OC burial within this same storm surge deposit which are approximately 2-fold greater than the long-term rates. Our findings indicate that these enhanced accretion and OC burial rates are due to inland transport of marine carbonate material and OC remobilized from along the coast during the storm. Furthermore, we find OC burial rates within the storm deposit at the site 10 km inland are substantially greater than the site 4 km inland, while mass accumulation rates show the opposite trend

  2. Climate change refugia as a tool for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change so as to increase persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources, are considered as potential adaptation options in the face of anthropogenic climate change. In a collaboration ...

  3. Ground Water and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; MacDonald, Alan; Fan, Ying; Maxwell, Reed M.; Yechieli, Yossi; Gurdak, Jason J.; Allen, Diana M.; Shamsudduha, Mohammad; Hiscock, Kevin; Yeh, Pat J. -F; Holman, Ian; Treidel, Holger

    2013-01-01

    As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

  4. Climate change is predicted to negatively influence Moroccan endemic reptile richness. Implications for conservation in protected areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Freiría, Fernando; Argaz, Hamida; Fahd, Soumía; Brito, José C.

    2013-09-01

    The identification of species-rich areas and their prognosticated turnover under climate change are crucial for the conservation of endemic taxa. This study aims to identify areas of reptile endemicity richness in a global biodiversity hot spot (Morocco) under current and future climatic conditions and to investigate the role of protected areas in biodiversity conservation under climate change. Species distribution models (SDM) were performed over the distribution of 21 endemic reptiles, combined to estimate current species richness at 1 × 1 km resolution and projected to years 2050 and 2080 according to distinct story lines and ensemble global circulation models, assuming unlimited and null dispersion ability. Generalized additive models were performed between species richness and geographic characteristics of 43 protected areas. SDM found precipitation as the most important factor related to current species distributions. Important reductions in future suitable areas were predicted for 50 % of species, and four species were identified as highly vulnerable to extinction. Drastic reductions in species-rich areas were predicted for the future, with considerable variability between years and dispersal scenarios. High turnover rates of species composition were predicted for eastern Morocco, whereas low values were forecasted for the Northern Atlantic coast and mountains. Species richness for current and future conditions was significantly related to the altitude and latitude of protected areas. Protected areas located in mountains and/or in the Northern Atlantic coast were identified as refugia, where population monitoring and conservation management is needed.

  5. Sewer Systems and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandsma, T.

    1993-01-01

    In this article the impact of climate change on the overflows of sewer systems is assessed. The emphasis is on the overflows of combined sewer systems. The purpose is twofold: first, to obtain a first-order estimate of the impact of climate change on overflows of sewer systems; and second, to obtain

  6. Ground water and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Taylor, R.G.; Scanlon, B.; Döll, P.; Rodell, M.; Beek, R. van; Wada, Y.; Longuevergne, L.; Leblanc, M.; Famiglietti, J.S.; Edmunds, M.; Konikow, L.; Green, T.R.; Chen, J.; Taniguchi, M.; Bierkens, M.F.P.; MacDonald, A.; Fan, Y.; Maxwell, R.M.; Yechieli, Y.; Gurdak, J.J.; Allen, D.M.; Shamsudduha, M.; Hiscock, K.; Yeh, Pat J.-F.; Holman, Ian; Treidel, Holger

    2012-01-01

    As the world’s largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate chang

  7. Dune erosion under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Winter, R.C.

    2014-01-01

    This PhD-thesis investigated the effect of future climate change on dune erosion in the Netherlands. At present, dune erosion occurs under a combination of large storm surge and high waves, which are both generated by a storm event. Therefore to investigate the affect of future climate change on dun

  8. Generating Arguments about Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, Barry; Grooms, Jonathon; Sampson, Victor; Oliveri, Robin

    2012-01-01

    This unit is a different and fun way to engage students with an extremely important topic, climate change, which cuts across scientific and nonscientific disciplines. While climate change itself may not be listed in the curriculum of every science class, the authors contend that such a unit is appropriate for virtually any science curriculum.…

  9. Climate change, responsibility, and justice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamieson, Dale

    2010-09-01

    In this paper I make the following claims. In order to see anthropogenic climate change as clearly involving moral wrongs and global injustices, we will have to revise some central concepts in these domains. Moreover, climate change threatens another value ("respect for nature") that cannot easily be taken up by concerns of global justice or moral responsibility.

  10. Teaching about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heffron, Susan Gallagher; Valmond, Kharra

    2011-01-01

    Students are exposed to many different media reports about global climate change. Movies such as "The Day After Tomorrow" and "Ice Age" are examples of instances when movie producers have sought to capture the attention of audiences by augmenting the challenges that climate change poses. Students may receive information from a wide range of media…

  11. Climate change challenges for SEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    This paper takes a theoretical perspective on the challenges that climate changes pose for SEA. The theoretical framework used is the sociologist Ulrich Beck’s theory of risk society and the aspects that characterise this society. Climate change is viewed as a risk, and the theory is used to derive...

  12. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  13. Malaria ecology and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCord, G. C.

    2016-05-01

    Understanding the costs that climate change will exact on society is crucial to devising an appropriate policy response. One of the channels through while climate change will affect human society is through vector-borne diseases whose epidemiology is conditioned by ambient ecology. This paper introduces the literature on malaria, its cost on society, and the consequences of climate change to the physics community in hopes of inspiring synergistic research in the area of climate change and health. It then demonstrates the use of one ecological indicator of malaria suitability to provide an order-of-magnitude assessment of how climate change might affect the malaria burden. The average of Global Circulation Model end-of-century predictions implies a 47% average increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease in today's malarious areas, significantly complicating malaria elimination efforts.

  14. How does climate influence speciation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hua, Xia; Wiens, John J

    2013-07-01

    Variation in climatic conditions over space and time is thought to be an important driver of speciation. However, the role of climate has not been explored in the theoretical literature on speciation, and the theory underlying empirical studies of climate and speciation has come largely from informal, verbal models. In this study, we develop a quantitative model to test a relatively new but theoretically untested model of speciation (speciation via niche conservatism) and to examine the climatic conditions under which speciation via niche conservatism and speciation via niche divergence are most plausible. Our results have three broad implications for the study of speciation: (1) ecological similarity over time (niche conservatism) can be an important part of speciation, despite the traditional emphasis on ecological divergence, (2) long-term directional climate change promotes speciation via niche conservatism for species with low climatic-niche lability, whereas climatic oscillations promote speciation via niche divergence for species with high climatic-niche lability, and (3) population extinction can be a key component of speciation.

  15. Climate change experiments in Hamburg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubasch, U. [DKRZ, Hamburg (Germany)

    1995-12-31

    Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the simulations with present day conditions (1980-1990) is too late, because then a considerable part of the warming since the beginning of the industrialization (ca. 1750) has been neglected. Furthermore it has only recently become clear that the sulphat-aerosols play an important role in the present day climate and in the future climate. The effect of the sulphat aerosols has first been simulated in a number of equilibrium simulations with mixed layer models, but nowadays with globally coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models

  16. Climate change, forest management and nitrogen deposition influence on carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems in Russia: simulation modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Alexander; Kudeyarov, Valery; Shanin, Vladimir

    2014-05-01

    Russian land ecosystems occupy more than 1/9th global land area. Therefore its carbon budget is an essential contribution to the global carbon budget. The first rough estimate of carbon balance on Russian territory was made on comparison data on total soil respiration (Kudeyarov et. al., 1995) and NPP calculated on data on biological productivity of different ecosystems over Russia. The carbon balance was evaluated as a C-sink. Further estimates of Russian C budget by V.Kudeyarov et al., (2007) and I.Kurganova et al., (2010) were more correct and included soil microbial flux, and non-respiratory processes: fossil fuel, agriculture, forest fires and post-fire emissions, insect damage, etc. According to estimates the total C-sink of Russian territory for early nineties was about -0.8-1.0 Pg C per year. The later IIASA account developed by A.Shvidenko et al. (2010) has provided current estimates of C fluxes and storages in Russia and showed that its terrestrial ecosystems served as a net carbon sink of -0.5-0.7 PgC yr-1 during the last decade. Taking into account big uncertainties of determination of carbon balance constituents one can say that results by IIASA and our Institute are rather close. Resulting effect of two processes (sequestration and CO2 emission) can be analysed by mathematical modelling only. Corresponding system of models of organic matter dynamics in forest ecosystems EFIMOD was developed in our Institute last decade and applied in Russia and other countries for evaluation of impacts of climate changes, forest management and forest fires. The comparative simulations of carbon and nitrogen dynamics in the mixed forest ecosystems of Central Russia from different climatic zones and site conditions have been made. Three large forest areas with the total square of about 17,000 km2 distinct in environmental conditions were chosen. We used the data of the forest inventory for model initialization. Four simulation scenarios (without disturbances, with

  17. Beyond Correlation in the Detection of Climate Change Impacts: Testing a Mechanistic Hypothesis for Climatic Influence on Sockeye Salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) Productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tillotson, Michael D; Quinn, Thomas P

    2016-01-01

    Detecting the biological impacts of climate change is a current focus of ecological research and has important applications in conservation and resource management. Owing to a lack of suitable control systems, measuring correlations between time series of biological attributes and hypothesized environmental covariates is a common method for detecting such impacts. These correlative approaches are particularly common in studies of exploited fish species because rich biological time-series data are often available. However, the utility of species-environment relationships for identifying or predicting biological responses to climate change has been questioned because strong correlations often deteriorate as new data are collected. Specifically stating and critically evaluating the mechanistic relationship(s) linking an environmental driver to a biological response may help to address this problem. Using nearly 60 years of data on sockeye salmon from the Kvichak River, Alaska we tested a mechanistic hypothesis linking water temperatures experienced during freshwater rearing to population productivity by modeling a series of intermediate, deterministic relationships and evaluating temporal trends in biological and environmental time-series. We found that warming waters during freshwater rearing have profoundly altered patterns of growth and life history in this population complex yet there has been no significant correlation between water temperature and metrics of productivity commonly used in fisheries management. These findings demonstrate that pairing correlative approaches with careful consideration of the mechanistic links between populations and their environments can help to both avoid spurious correlations and identify biologically important, but not statistically significant relationships, and ultimately producing more robust conclusions about the biological impacts of climate change.

  18. Climatic change; Le Changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perthuis, Ch. de [Universite de Paris-Dauphine, 75 - Paris (France); Caisse des depots, Mission climat, 75 - Paris (France); Delbosc, A. [Caisse des depots, Mission climat, 75 - Paris (France)

    2009-07-01

    Received ideas about climatic change are a mixture of right and wrong information. The authors use these ideas as starting points to shade light on what we really know and what we believe to know. The book is divided in three main chapters: should we act in front of climatic change? How can we efficiently act? How can we equitably act? For each chapter a series of received ideas is analyzed in order to find those which can usefully contribute to mitigate the environmental, economical and social impacts of climatic change. (J.S.)

  19. Inhalation anaesthetics and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mads Peter Sulbæk; Sander, S P; Nielsen, O J

    2010-01-01

    Although the increasing abundance of CO(2) in our atmosphere is the main driver of the observed climate change, it is the cumulative effect of all forcing agents that dictate the direction and magnitude of the change, and many smaller contributors are also at play. Isoflurane, desflurane......, and sevoflurane are widely used inhalation anaesthetics. Emissions of these compounds contribute to radiative forcing of climate change. To quantitatively assess the impact of the anaesthetics on the forcing of climate, detailed information on their properties of heat (infrared, IR) absorption and atmospheric...

  20. Covering Climate Change in Wikipedia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arritt, R. W.; Connolley, W.; Ramjohn, I.; Schulz, S.; Wickert, A. D.

    2010-12-01

    The first hit in an internet search for "global warming" using any of the three leading search engines (Google, Bing, or Yahoo) is the article "Global warming" in the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. The article garners about half a million page views per month. In addition to the site's visibility with the public, Wikipedia's articles on climate-related topics are widely referenced by policymakers, media outlets, and academia. Despite the site's strong influence on public understanding of science, few geoscientists actively participate in Wikipedia, with the result that the community that edits these articles is mostly composed of individuals with little or no expertise in the topic at hand. In this presentation we discuss how geoscientists can help shape public understanding of science by contributing to Wikipedia. Although Wikipedia prides itself on being "the encyclopedia that anyone can edit," the site has policies regarding contributions and behavior that can be pitfalls for newcomers. This presentation is intended as a guide for the geoscience community in contributing to information about climate change in this widely-used reference.

  1. Deliberating Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agger, Annika; Jelsøe, Erling; Jæger, Birgit

    to include the voice of the citizens into complex scientific and technological issues. The purpose of WWV was to pass on the opinions of ordinary citizens to political decision-makers at The United Nations Climate Summit, COP15, in Copenhagen in December 2009. The authors made a study of the Danish WWV event...

  2. Changing heathlands in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ransijn, Johannes

    ) a study on the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2-concentration, warming and drought on the photosynthetic capacity and phenology of C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in an outdoor climate change experiment on a grassy heathland in Denmark; 4) a study on climate change impacts on the competitive interactions...... and flexibly reduces its green biomass under drought conditions. C. vulgaris is less flexible and hardly adjusts photosynthetic capacity or green biomass to drought or warming. Despite these differential responses, competitive interactions were robust. C. vulgaris, in the building phase, outcompetes D...... plant communities. Many heathlands have shifted from dwarf shrub dominance to grass dominance and climatic change might affect the competitive balance between dwarf shrubs and grasses. We looked at heathland vegetation dynamics and heathland plant responses to climatic change at different spatial...

  3. Climate Change and Maize Yield in Iowa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Hong; Twine, Tracy E; Girvetz, Evan

    2016-01-01

    Climate is changing across the world, including the major maize-growing state of Iowa in the USA. To maintain crop yields, farmers will need a suite of adaptation strategies, and choice of strategy will depend on how the local to regional climate is expected to change. Here we predict how maize yield might change through the 21st century as compared with late 20th century yields across Iowa, USA, a region representing ideal climate and soils for maize production that contributes substantially to the global maize economy. To account for climate model uncertainty, we drive a dynamic ecosystem model with output from six climate models and two future climate forcing scenarios. Despite a wide range in the predicted amount of warming and change to summer precipitation, all simulations predict a decrease in maize yields from late 20th century to middle and late 21st century ranging from 15% to 50%. Linear regression of all models predicts a 6% state-averaged yield decrease for every 1°C increase in warm season average air temperature. When the influence of moisture stress on crop growth is removed from the model, yield decreases either remain the same or are reduced, depending on predicted changes in warm season precipitation. Our results suggest that even if maize were to receive all the water it needed, under the strongest climate forcing scenario yields will decline by 10-20% by the end of the 21st century.

  4. Can Climate Change Negotiations Succeed?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Hovi

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available More than two decades of climate change negotiations have produced a series of global climate agreements, such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Copenhagen Accords, but have nevertheless made very limited progress in curbing global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper considers whether negotiations can succeed in reaching an agreement that effectively addresses the climate change problem. To be effective, a climate agreement must cause substantial emissions reductions either directly (in the agreement's own lifetime or indirectly (by paving the way for a future agreement that causes substantial emissions reductions directly. To reduce global emissions substantially, an agreement must satisfy three conditions. Firstly, participation must be both comprehensive and stable. Secondly, participating countries must accept deep commitments. Finally, the agreement must obtain high compliance rates. We argue that three types of enforcement will be crucial to fulfilling these three conditions: (1 incentives for countries to ratify with deep commitments, (2 incentives for countries that have ratified with deep commitments to abstain from withdrawal, and (3 incentives for countries having ratified with deep commitments to comply with them. Based on assessing the constraints that characterize the climate change negotiations, we contend that adopting such three-fold potent enforcement will likely be politically infeasible, not only within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, but also in the framework of a more gradual approach. Therefore, one should not expect climate change negotiations to succeed in producing an effective future agreement—either directly or indirectly.

  5. Climate change; Le changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    Based on contributions on 120 French and foreign scientists representing different disciplines (mathematics, physics, mechanics, chemistry, biology, medicine, and so on), this report proposes an overview of the scientific knowledge and debate about climate change. It discusses the various indicators of climate evolution (temperatures, ice surfaces, sea level, biological indicators) and the various factors which may contribute to climate evolution (greenhouse gases, solar radiation). It also comments climate evolutions in the past as they can be investigated through some geological, thermal or geochemical indicators. Then, the authors describe and discuss the various climate mechanisms: solar activity, oceans, ice caps, greenhouse gases. In a third part, the authors discuss the different types of climate models which differ by the way they describe processes, and the current validation process for these models

  6. Climate change and group dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postmes, Tom

    2015-01-01

    The characteristics and views of people sceptical about climate change have been analysed extensively. A study now confirms that sceptics in the US have some characteristics of a social movement, but shows that the same group dynamics propel believers

  7. Cities lead on climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pancost, Richard D.

    2016-04-01

    The need to mitigate climate change opens up a key role for cities. Bristol's year as a Green Capital led to great strides forward, but it also revealed that a creative and determined partnership across cultural divides will be necessary.

  8. Climate change and water resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Younos, Tamim [The Cabell Brand Center for Global Poverty and Resource Sustainability Studies, Salem, VA (United States); Grady, Caitlin A. (ed.) [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Ecological Sciences and Engineering Program

    2013-07-01

    This volume presents nine chapters prepared by international authors and highlighting various aspects of climate change and water resources. Climate change models and scenarios, particularly those related to precipitation projection, are discussed and uncertainties and data deficiencies that affect the reliability of predictions are identified. The potential impacts of climate change on water resources (including quality) and on crop production are analyzed and adaptation strategies for crop production are offered. Furthermore, case studies of climate change mitigation strategies, such as the reduction of water use and conservation measures in urban environments, are included. This book will serve as a valuable reference work for researchers and students in water and environmental sciences, as well as for governmental agencies and policy makers.

  9. Climate Change Science Program Collection

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Collection consists of publications and other resources produced between 2007 and 2009 by the CCSP with the intention of...

  10. Climate change: Unattributed hurricane damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallegatte, Stéphane

    2015-11-01

    In the United States, hurricanes have been causing more and more economic damage. A reanalysis of the disaster database using a statistical method that accounts for improvements in resilience opens the possibility that climate change has played a role.

  11. Making Sense of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blichfeldt, Nikolaj Vendelbo

    The thesis is an ethnographic description of a climate change mitigation campaign among retirees in the urban residential community Dongping Lane in central Hangzhou, and an examination of local understandings of connections between everyday life in the community and global climate change......, as a point of departure for an examination of what happens when a requirement to save energy and resources, as a response to global climate change, encounters local ways of knowing the world. Developed through meetings, workshops, competitions and the promotion of exemplary individuals, the campaign...... is conceived as part of wider state-sponsored efforts to foster civilized behavior and a sense of belonging to the residential community among urban citizens in China. The campaigners connect unspectacular everyday consumer practices with climate change and citizenship by showing that among them, making...

  12. Welfare impacts of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hof, Andries F.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change can affect well-being in poor economies more than previously shown if its effect on economic growth, and not only on current production, is considered. But this result does not necessarily suggest greater mitigation efforts are required.

  13. Migration and adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tacoli, Cecilia

    2007-11-15

    Climate change is having an undeniable impact on many human systems and behaviours, including population mobility. This is hardly surprising: migration is an adaptive response to changes in people's circumstances. Yet environmental factors are not the whole story. Socio-economic, political and cultural factors are also closely linked to population movement, and heavily influence vulnerability to both direct and indirect impacts of climate change. Shifts in migration patterns are a strategy of adaptation to complex transformations, and recognising and accommodating this is key in policies for sustainable development and poverty reduction in the context of growing environmental stress.

  14. Fire and Climate Change in Boreal Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flannigan, M. D.; Logan, K. A.; Stocks, S. J.; Wotton, B. M.; Amiro, B. D.

    2004-12-01

    Fire is the major stand-renewing agent for much of the circumboreal forest, and greatly influences the structure and function of boreal ecosystems from regeneration through mortality. Current estimates are that an average of 5-15 million hectares burn annually in boreal forests, almost exclusively in Siberia, Canada and Alaska. There is a growing global awareness of the importance and vulnerability of the boreal region to projected future climate change. Fire activity is strongly influenced by four factors - weather/climate, vegetation \\(fuels\\), natural ignition agents and humans. Climate and weather are strongly linked to fire activity which suggests that the fire regime will respond rapidly to changes in climate. Recent results suggest that area burned by fire is related to temperature and fuel moisture. The climate of the northern hemisphere has been warming due to an influx of radiatively active gases \\(carbon dioxide, methane etc.\\) as a result of human activities. This altered climate, modelled by General Circulation Models \\(GCMs\\), indicates a profound impact on fire activity in the circumboreal forest. Recent results using GCMs suggest that in many regions fire weather/fire danger conditions will be more severe, area burned will increase, people-caused and lightning-caused ignitions will increase, fire seasons will be longer and the intensity and severity of fires will increase. This increase in fire activity may lead to a positive feedback cycle with the increased release of greenhouse gases. Although a run away scenario is unlikely as changes in vegetation would limit the positive feedback cycle. Changes in fire activity as a result of climate change could have a greater and more immediate impact on vegetation distribution and abundance as compared to the direct impact of climate change.

  15. Responsible Reaction To Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    China calls for turning UNFCCC provisions into concrete actions Never before has climate change been as prominent on the public agenda as it is today.Its rele- vance was highlighted once again when more than 10,000 delegates from over 180 countries flocked to Bali early this month to discuss the topic.Environment officials as well as representatives from intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations gath- ered on the Indonesian island on December 3-14 for the UN Climate Change Conference.

  16. Climate Change and National Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-01

    atmosphere, which is causing warming of global temperatures as well as more extreme and less predictable weather patterns. While this issue is debated in...develop unique, policy-relevant solutions to complex global challenges. About the CCAPS Program The Climate Change and African Political Stability...political circles, scientists overwhelmingly agree that human-induced or anthropogenic climate change is real. Given the complexity of the issue, there

  17. Social protection and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnson, Craig; Bansha Dulal, Hari; Prowse, Martin Philip

    2013-01-01

    This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject.......This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject....

  18. Climate Change in Developing Countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Drunen, M.A.; Lasage, R.; Dorlands, C. (eds.) [Free University, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2006-09-15

    This book presents an overview of the studies conducted by the Netherlands Climate Change Studies Assistance programme. The programme was set up in recognition of the need for developing countries, in particular, to face the challenges confronting all countries under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The book presents an overview of the main results in 13 countries: Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Egypt, Ghana, Kazakhstan, Mali, Mongolia, Senegal, Surinam, Vietnam, Yemen and Zimbabwe. It provides a critical evaluation of the methodologies and approaches used, a cross-country synthesis and recommendations for further studies. Subjects dealt with include not only impact studies, but also vulnerability and adaptation, mitigation and climate related policy.

  19. Update on global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Carol J

    2010-01-01

    Global climate change brings new challenges to the control of infectious diseases. Since many waterborne and vector-borne pathogens are highly sensitive to temperature and rainfall, health risks resulting from a warming and more variable climate are potentially huge. Global climate change involves the entire world, but the poorest countries will suffer the most. Nations are coming together to address what can be done to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and cope with inevitable temperature increases. A key component of any comprehensive mitigation and adaptation plan is a strong public health infrastructure across the world. Nothing less than global public health security is at stake.

  20. Changes in biomass burning mark the onset of an ENSO-influenced climate regime at 42°S in southwest Tasmania, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Michael-Shawn; Benson, Alexa; Heijnis, Hendrik; Gadd, Patricia S.; Cwynar, Les C.; Rees, Andrew B. H.

    2015-08-01

    We use macroscopic charcoal and sediment geochemistry analysis of two proximal upper montane lakes located at 42°S in southwest Tasmania, Australia, to test the role of the southern hemisphere westerly winds (SWW) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in governing the climate of this sector of the southern mid-to high-latitudes. Inter-annual climate anomalies in the study area are driven by changes in both ENSO and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM - an index that describes seasonal to decadal shifts in the SWW), making it an ideal location to test assumptions about the varying influence of the SWW and ENSO, two important components of the global climate system, through time. We find multi-millennial scale trends in fire activity that are remarkably consistent with trends in hydroclimate reconstructed at the same latitude in southern South America, providing empirical support for the notion of zonally symmetric changes in the SWW governing the climate at this latitude in the Southern Hemisphere between 12 and 5 cal ka BP. A transition from multi-millennial scale to sub-millennial scale trends in fire activity occurs after ca 5 cal ka BP in concert with the onset of high frequency and amplitude ENSO variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean region. We conclude that the onset of sub-millennial scale trends in ENSO drove changes in fire activity in our study region over the last ca 5 cal ka. Geochemical data reveals divergent local impacts at the two study sites in response to these major climate transitions that are related to local topography and geography.

  1. Modelling the influence of changing climate in present and future marine eutrophication impacts from spring barley production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cosme, Nuno Miguel Dias; Niero, Monia

    2017-01-01

    carrying capacity, or on the presently proposed method, point to the value of adding spatial differentiation to LCIA models. The inclusion of time variation and spatial differentiation in characterisation modelling of marine eutrophication and the identification of a paucity of adequate inventory data...... in Denmark, the paper has two objectives: (i) to estimate the present and future marine eutrophication impacts by combining a novel Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) modelling approach with a quantification of the effects of climate change on its parameterisation, and (ii) to discuss the implications...... was added to the resulting ‘present’ and ‘future’ characterisation factors (CFs) and calculated for the Baltic and North Sea. The temporal variability of both midpoint normalised impact scores and damage scores reflect a 34% and 28% increase of the CFs in the North Sea and Baltic Sea, respectively...

  2. Influence of Climate Change and Meteorological Factors on Houston’s Air Pollution: Ozone a Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Liu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available We examined the past 23 years of ground-level O3 data and selected meteorological parameters in Houston, Texas, which historically has been one of the most polluted cities in the United States. Both 1-h and 8-h O3 exceedances have been reduced significantly down to single digit yearly occurrences. We also found that the frequency of southerly flow has increased by a factor of ~2.5 over the period 1990–2013, likely suppressing O3 photochemistry and leading to a “cleaner” Houston environment. The sea breeze was enhanced greatly from 1990 to 2013 due to increasing land surface temperatures, increased pressure gradients, and slightly stronger on-shore winds. These patterns driven by climate change produce a strengthening of the sea breeze, which should be a general result at locations worldwide.

  3. Modelling climate change impacts on mycotoxin contamination

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fels, van der Ine; Liu, C.; Battilani, P.

    2016-01-01

    Projected climate change effects will influence primary agricultural systems and thus food security, directly via impacts on yields, and indirectly via impacts on its safety, with mycotoxins considered as crucial hazards. Mycotoxins are produced by a wide variety of fungal species, each having their

  4. CLIMATE CHANGES: CAUSES AND IMPACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Slave

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Present brings several environmental problems for people. Many of these are closely related, but by far the most important problem is the climate change. In the course of Earth evolution, climate has changed many times, sometimes dramatically. Warmer eras always replaced and were in turn replaced by glacial ones. However, the climate of the past almost ten thousand years has been very stable. During this period human civilization has also developed. In the past nearly 100 years - since the beginning of industrialization - the global average temperature has increased by approx. 0.6 ° C (after IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, faster than at any time in the last 1000 years.

  5. 气候变化对地缘政治格局的影响路径与效应%Influence path and effect of climate change on geopolitical pattern

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Limao; GU Mengchen; LI Hongqiang

    2012-01-01

    @@%Marked by the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen 2009,climate change is shaping the new pattern for future geopolitics with unprecedented drive.Climate change-has surpassed the category of pure environment problem and become a focal issue in international relations.Driven by climate change,new changes have taken place in the evolution of geopolitical pattern.(1) Geopolitical contention expands into new fields and regions.(2) Measures and tools of geopolitical contention become more diversified.(3) Main bodies of geopolitical gambling are divided into different groups.With the development of politicization,climate change has become the significant driving force that can influence the evolution of geopolitical pattern.Measures,sphere and contents of geopolitical contention changed dramatically,carbon emission permits,carbon tariff and new energy technology turned into the key points of geopolitical contention.Climate change acts on the evolution of geopolitical pattern through three main paths:"Feedback effect","Trace back effect",and "Ripple effect",and they exert influence on geopolitical pattern with three impacts:"Depression effect","Traceability effect",and "Diffusion effect".We draw several conclusions from the analysis:(1) Climate change gradually becomes one of the most active driving forces to impact on the evolution of geopolitical pattern in the present world and it diversifies the geopolitical targets.(2) Climate change generates new geopolitical tools.The developed countries use climate change as a "Lever" to pry strategic resources like energy and grain and the geopolitical means are in a more secretive way.(3) Low-carbon technology,with new energy technology as the core,becomes the key factor of geopolitical influence and power transition.Those who can take advantage of new energy technologies will occupy the leading position in future's climate change negotiations and geopolitical competition.

  6. Historical influence of irrigation on climate extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiery, Wim; Davin, Edouard L.; Lawrence, Dave; Hauser, Mathias; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2016-04-01

    Land irrigation is an essential practice sustaining global food production and many regional economies. During the last decades, irrigation amounts have been growing rapidly. Emerging scientific evidence indicates that land irrigation substantially affects mean climate conditions in different regions of the world. However, a thorough understanding of the impact of irrigation on extreme climatic conditions, such as heat waves, droughts or intense precipitation, is currently still lacking. In this context, we aim to assess the historical influence of irrigation on the occurrence of climate extremes. To this end, two simulations are conducted over the period 1910-2010 with a state-of-the-art global climate model (the Community Earth System Model, CESM): a control simulation including all major anthropogenic and natural external forcings except for irrigation and a second experiment with transient irrigation enabled. The two simulations are evaluated for their ability to represent (i) hot, dry and wet extremes using the HadEX2 and ERA-Interim datasets as a reference, and (ii) latent heat fluxes using LandFlux-EVAL. Assuming a linear combination of climatic responses to different forcings, the difference between both experiments approximates the influence of irrigation. We will analyse the impact of irrigation on a number of climate indices reflecting the intensity and duration of heat waves. Thereby, particular attention is given to the role of soil moisture changes in modulating climate extremes. Furthermore, the contribution of individual biogeophysical processes to the total impact of irrigation on hot extremes is quantified by application of a surface energy balance decomposition technique to the 90th and 99th percentile surface temperature changes.

  7. Climate change impacts on food system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.

    2014-12-01

    Food system includes biophysical factors (climate, land and water), human environments (production technologies and food consumption, distribution and marketing), as well as the dynamic interactions within them. Climate change affects agriculture and food systems in various ways. Agricultural production can be influenced directly by climatic factors such as mean temperature rising, change in rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme events. Eventually, climate change could cause shift of arable land, alteration of water availability, abnormal fluctuation of food prices, and increase of people at risk of malnutrition. This work aims to evaluate how climate change would affect agricultural production biophysically and how these effects would propagate to social factors at the global level. In order to model the complex interactions between the natural and social components, a Global Optimization model of Agricultural Land and Water resources (GOALW) is applied to the analysis. GOALW includes various demands of human society (food, feed, other), explicit production module, and irrigation water availability constraint. The objective of GOALW is to maximize global social welfare (consumers' surplus and producers' surplus).Crop-wise irrigation water use in different regions around the world are determined by the model; marginal value of water (MVW) can be obtained from the model, which implies how much additional welfare benefit could be gained with one unit increase in local water availability. Using GOALW, we will analyze two questions in this presentation: 1) how climate change will alter irrigation requirements and how the social system would buffer that by price/demand adjustment; 2) how will the MVW be affected by climate change and what are the controlling factors. These results facilitate meaningful insights for investment and adaptation strategies in sustaining world's food security under climate change.

  8. Climate data and climate change - Analysis of the influence on energy demand, performance requirement and thermal comfort of buildings; Klimadaten und Klimawandel - Untersuchungen zum Einfluss auf den Energiebedarf, den Leistungsbedarf und den thermischen Komfort von Gebaeuden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Voss, Karsten; Kuenz, Carolin [Bergische Universitaet Wuppertal (Germany)

    2012-10-15

    Continuous research on climate change has improved the knowledge on climate forecast modelling, so that local and regional climate data sets for the application in building energy modelling are available. The paper analyses the data sets of most known sources and compares the relevant characteristics at four German locations. Simulation results for three commercial building examples (office, school and hotel) illustrate how the climate change may influence heating and cooling demands and capacities as well as the summer thermal comfort if no adjustments with respect to construction, service technology and user behaviour are applied. A significant decrease in space heating demand is contrasted by increased cooling demand and increased indoor temperatures during summer even until 2050. Especially for the office buildings, the summer conditions develop critical, so that active cooling will be mandatory in the summer hot regions. This trend was already detected during the past decade. The forecast is critical for all existing buildings. Significant improvements of the envelope properties such as glazing or shading and passive cooling options become mandatory. The changes predicted for schools and hotels remain moderate.

  9. Ecosystem carbon stock influenced by plantation practice: implications for planting forests as a measure of climate change mitigation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengzhang Liao

    Full Text Available Uncertainties remain in the potential of forest plantations to sequestrate carbon (C. We synthesized 86 experimental studies with paired-site design, using a meta-analysis approach, to quantify the differences in ecosystem C pools between plantations and their corresponding adjacent primary and secondary forests (natural forests. Totaled ecosystem C stock in plant and soil pools was 284 Mg C ha(-1 in natural forests and decreased by 28% in plantations. In comparison with natural forests, plantations decreased aboveground net primary production, litterfall, and rate of soil respiration by 11, 34, and 32%, respectively. Fine root biomass, soil C concentration, and soil microbial C concentration decreased respectively by 66, 32, and 29% in plantations relative to natural forests. Soil available N, P and K concentrations were lower by 22, 20 and 26%, respectively, in plantations than in natural forests. The general pattern of decreased ecosystem C pools did not change between two different groups in relation to various factors: stand age ( or = 25 years, stand types (broadleaved vs. coniferous and deciduous vs. evergreen, tree species origin (native vs. exotic of plantations, land-use history (afforestation vs. reforestation and site preparation for plantations (unburnt vs. burnt, and study regions (tropic vs. temperate. The pattern also held true across geographic regions. Our findings argued against the replacement of natural forests by the plantations as a measure of climate change mitigation.

  10. Ecosystem carbon stock influenced by plantation practice: implications for planting forests as a measure of climate change mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Chengzhang; Luo, Yiqi; Fang, Changming; Li, Bo

    2010-05-27

    Uncertainties remain in the potential of forest plantations to sequestrate carbon (C). We synthesized 86 experimental studies with paired-site design, using a meta-analysis approach, to quantify the differences in ecosystem C pools between plantations and their corresponding adjacent primary and secondary forests (natural forests). Totaled ecosystem C stock in plant and soil pools was 284 Mg C ha(-1) in natural forests and decreased by 28% in plantations. In comparison with natural forests, plantations decreased aboveground net primary production, litterfall, and rate of soil respiration by 11, 34, and 32%, respectively. Fine root biomass, soil C concentration, and soil microbial C concentration decreased respectively by 66, 32, and 29% in plantations relative to natural forests. Soil available N, P and K concentrations were lower by 22, 20 and 26%, respectively, in plantations than in natural forests. The general pattern of decreased ecosystem C pools did not change between two different groups in relation to various factors: stand age ( or = 25 years), stand types (broadleaved vs. coniferous and deciduous vs. evergreen), tree species origin (native vs. exotic) of plantations, land-use history (afforestation vs. reforestation) and site preparation for plantations (unburnt vs. burnt), and study regions (tropic vs. temperate). The pattern also held true across geographic regions. Our findings argued against the replacement of natural forests by the plantations as a measure of climate change mitigation.

  11. Natural versus anthropogenic climate change: Swedish farmers' joint construction of climate perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asplund, Therese

    2016-07-01

    While previous research into understandings of climate change has usually examined general public perceptions, this study offers an audience-specific departure point. This article analyses how Swedish farmers perceive climate change and how they jointly shape their understandings. The agricultural sector is of special interest because it both contributes to and is directly affected by climate change. Through focus group discussions with Swedish farmers, this study finds that (1) farmers relate to and understand climate change through their own experiences, (2) climate change is understood either as a natural process subject to little or no human influence or as anthropogenic and (3) various communication tools contribute to the formation of natural and anthropogenic climate change frames. The article ends by discussing frame resonance and frame clash in public understanding of climate change and by comparing potential similarities and differences in how various segments of the public make sense of climate change.

  12. Climate Change in New England | Energy and Global Climate ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-10

    EPA Region 1's Energy and Climate Unit and Oceans and Coastal Unit provide information and technical assistance on climate change impacts and adaptation, resilience and preparedness to climate disruptions

  13. The influence of glacial ice sheets on Atlantic meridional overturning circulation through atmospheric circulation change under glacial climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherriff-Tadano, Sam; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Oka, Akira; Chan, Wing-Le

    2016-04-01

    Recent coupled modeling studies have shown that the existence of the glacial ice sheets intensifies the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Since this may play an important role in maintaining a strong AMOC over the last glacial period, which is suggested by recent reconstruction study, it is very important to understand the process by which glacial ice sheets intensify the AMOC. Here, a decoupled simulation is conducted to investigate the effect of wind change due to glacial ice sheets on the AMOC, the crucial region where wind modifies the AMOC and the mechanism, which remained elusive in previous studies. First, from atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments, the effect of glacial ice sheets on the surface wind is evaluated. Second, from ocean general circulation model (OGCM) experiments, the influence of the wind stress change on the AMOC is evaluated by applying only the changes in the surface wind as a boundary condition, while leaving surface heat and freshwater fluxes unchanged. Moreover, several sensitivity experiments are conducted. Using the AGCM, glacial ice sheets are applied individually. Using the OGCM, changes in the wind are applied regionally or at different magnitudes, ranging from the full glacial to modern levels. These experiments demonstrate that glacial ice sheets intensify the AMOC through an increase in the wind stress curl mainly at the North Atlantic mid-latitudes. This intensification is caused by the increased Ekman upwelling and gyre transport of salt while the change in sea ice transport works as a negative, though minor, feedback.

  14. Projections of long-term changes in solar radiation based on CMIP5 climate models and their influence on energy yields of photovoltaic systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wild, Martin; Folini, Doris; Henschel, Florian; Müller, Björn

    2015-04-01

    ller, B. 2015: Projections of long-term changes in solar radiation based on CMIP5 climate models and their influence on energy yields of photovoltaic systems, submitted. Muller, B., Wild, M., Driesse, A., and Behrens, K., 2014: Rethinking solar resource assessments in the context of global dimming and brightening, Solar Energy, 99, 272-282. Wild, M. 2012: Enlightening Global Dimming and Brightening. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 27-37, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00074.1

  15. The Influence of 21st Century Climate Change on the Isotopic Composition of Atmospheric Moisture and How it Relates to Past Hydrological Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buenning, N. H.; Stott, L. D.; Yoshimura, K.

    2014-12-01

    Increases in greenhouse gas concentrations through the 21st century are projected to increase global temperatures and change circulation and precipitation patterns globally. However, there remain many uncertainties in how the general circulation of the atmosphere will change and how it will impact regional hydroclimates. In the low and middle latitudes the isotopic composition (δ) of atmospheric moisture could potentially be useful at tracing these changes in precipitation and wind patterns. In this study sea surface temperatures and sea ice conditions from 21st century climate projections (RCP8.5 scenario) were used to force the isotope-enabled Global Spectral Model (IsoGSM). This ensemble of IsoGSM simulations provides insight as to how and where water isotopologues will change globally as a result of 21st century climate change. In general, δ values increase in the subtropics and middle latitudes and decrease in the southern tropics. Changes to horizontal winds suggest that the isotopic changes are likely due to changes in the strength of the Hadley Cell, rather than the poleward expansion of the descending branch of the cells. Regionally, the simulations project consistent increases in δ values through the 21st century over central and southern Africa, the Tibetan Plateau, and the eastern Australia. Decreasing δ values were found over the eastern tropical Pacific and the western margins of South America. A comparison with a present-day IsoGSM simulation reveals similar regional changes in δ values over the last 60 years. The similarities between recent changes and 21st century projections of δ values suggest that certain hydrological aspects of 21st century climate change are already taking place in some regions. Central Africa stands out as a region where IsoGSM simulates robust rises in precipitation and vapor δ values for both the 21st century and the late 20th century. The recent rise in δ values over central Africa is validated against

  16. Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Forestry Development in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Forestry and forest ecosystem are highly sensitive to climate change.At present,studies about the responses of forests to climate change in China are more focused on physical influences of climate change.This paper firstly divided the key impact factors of climate change on forest and forestry developing into direct factors and indirect factors,and then made an assessment on climate change affecting future forestry development from the aspect of forest products and ecological services.On this basis,the adap...

  17. Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chance, Paul; Heward, William L.

    2010-01-01

    In "Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge," we conclude the special section by assuming that you have been persuaded by Thompson's paper or other evidence that global warming is real and poses a threat that must be dealt with, and that for now the only way to deal with it is by changing behavior. Then we ask what you, as behavior analysts, can do…

  18. Health Effects of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... resulting health effects. Extreme weather events due to climate change may cause people to experience geographic displacement, damage to their property, loss of loved ones, and chronic stress—all of which can negatively affect ... change may be associated with staple food shortages, malnutrition, ...

  19. Climate change: Conflict of observational science, theory, and politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerhard, L.C.

    2004-01-01

    Debate over whether human activity causes Earth climate change obscures the immensity of the dynamic systems that create and maintain climate on the planet. Anthropocentric debate leads people to believe that they can alter these planetary dynamic systems to prevent that they perceive as negative climate impacts on human civilization. Although politicians offer simplistic remedies, such as the Kyoto Protocol, global climate continues to change naturally. Better planning for the inevitable dislocations that have followed natural global climate changes throughout human history requires us to accept the fact that climate will change, and that human society must adapt to the changes. Over the last decade, the scientific literature reported a shift in emphasis from attempting to build theoretical models of putative human impacts on climate to understanding the planetwide dynamic processes that are the natural climate drivers. The current scientific literature is beginning to report the history of past climate change, the extent of natural climate variability, natural system drivers, and the episodicity of many climate changes. The scientific arguments have broadened from focus upon human effects on climate to include the array of natural phenomena that have driven global climate change for eons. However, significant political issues with long-term social consequences continue their advance. This paper summarizes recent scientific progress in climate science and arguments about human influence on climate. ?? 2004. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

  20. Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, Katherine [National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (United States)

    2016-03-31

    A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine concludes it is now possible to estimate the influence of climate change on some types of extreme events. The science of extreme event attribution has advanced rapidly in recent years, giving new insight to the ways that human-caused climate change can influence the magnitude or frequency of some extreme weather events. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. Confidence is strongest in attributing types of extreme events that are influenced by climate change through a well-understood physical mechanism, such as, the more frequent heat waves that are closely connected to human-caused global temperature increases, the report finds. Confidence is lower for other types of events, such as hurricanes, whose relationship to climate change is more complex and less understood at present. For any extreme event, the results of attribution studies hinge on how questions about the event's causes are posed, and on the data, modeling approaches, and statistical tools chosen for the analysis.

  1. Dislocated interests and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Steven J.; Diffenbaugh, Noah

    2016-06-01

    The predicted effects of climate change on surface temperatures are now emergent and quantifiable. The recent letter by Hansen and Sato (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 034009) adds to a growing number of studies showing that warming over the past four decades has shifted the distribution of temperatures higher almost everywhere, with the largest relative effects on summer temperatures in developing regions such as Africa, South America, southeast Asia, and the Middle East (e.g., Diffenbaugh and Scherer 2011 Clim. Change 107 615-24 Anderson 2011 Clim. Change 108 581; Mahlstein et al 2012 Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L21711). Hansen and Sato emphasize that although these regions are warming disproportionately, their role in causing climate change—measured by cumulative historical CO2 emissions produced—is small compared to the US and Europe, where the relative change in temperatures has been less. This spatial and temporal mismatch of climate change impacts and the burning of fossil fuels is a critical dislocation of interests that, as the authors note, has ‘substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.’ Here, we place Hansen and Sato’s ‘national responsibilities’ into a broader conceptual framework of problematically dislocated interests, and briefly discuss the related challenges for global climate mitigation efforts.

  2. Western water and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris

    2015-12-01

    The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northern-most West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries

  3. Climate, Companies, and Public Policy: How Transparent Is the Private Sector in Reporting Climate Policy Influence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldman, G. T.; Carlson, C.

    2014-12-01

    To enact effective policies to address climate change, decision makers need both scientific and political support. One major barrier to U.S. climate policy enactment has been the opposition of private sector actors to proposed policies and to climate science itself. Increasingly, the public and investors are holding companies accountable for their actions around climate change—including political activies, affiliations with trade groups, and involvement with climate science. However, this accountability is inhibited by the prominent role that trade associations have played in climate policy debates in recent years. The opaque nature of such groups is problematic, as it inhibits the public from understanding who is obstructing progress on addressing climate change, and in some cases, impedes the public's climate literacy. Voluntary climate reporting can yield some information on companies' climate engagement and demonstrates the need for greater transparency in corporate political activities around climate change. We analyze CDP climate reporting data from 1,824 companies to assess the degree to which corporate actors disclosed their political influence on climate policies through their trade associations. Results demonstrate the limitations of voluntary reporting and the extent to which companies utilize their trade associations to influence climate change policy debates without being held accountable for these positions. Notably, many companies failed to acknowledge their board seat on trade groups with significant climate policy engagement. Of those that did acknowledge their board membership, some claimed not to agree with their trade associations' positions on climate change. These results raise questions about who trade groups are representing when they challenge the science or obstruct policies to address climate change. Recommendations for overcoming this barrier to informed decision making to address climate change will be discussed.

  4. Double Exposure: Photographing Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, D. P.; Wake, C. P.; Romanow, G. B.

    2008-12-01

    Double Exposure, Photographing Climate Change, is a fine-art photography exhibition that examines climate change through the prism of melting glaciers. The photographs are twinned shots of glaciers, taken in the mid-20th century by world-renowned photographer Brad Washburn, and in the past two years by Boston journalist/photographer David Arnold. Arnold flew in Washburn's aerial "footprints", replicating stunning black and white photographs, and documenting one irreversible aspect of climate change. Double Exposure is art with a purpose. It is designed to educate, alarm and inspire its audiences. Its power lies in its beauty and the shocking changes it has captured through a camera lens. The interpretive text, guided by numerous experts in the fields of glaciology, global warming and geology, helps convey the message that climate change has already forced permanent changes on the face of our planet. The traveling exhibit premiered at Boston's Museum of Science in April and is now criss-crossing the nation. The exhibit covers changes in the 15 glaciers that have been photographed as well as related information about global warming's effect on the planet today.

  5. Western water and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2015-01-01

    The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northernmost West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent.

  6. Influence of high-order mechanics on simulation of glacier response to climate change: insights from Haig Glacier, Canadian Rocky Mountains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Adhikari

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Evolution of glaciers in response to climate change has mostly been simulated using simplified dynamical models. Because these models do not account for the influence of high-order physics, corresponding results may exhibit some biases. For Haig Glacier in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, we test this hypothesis by comparing simulation results obtained from 3-D numerical models that deal with different assumptions concerning physics, ranging from simple shear deformation to comprehensive Stokes flow. In glacier retreat scenarios, we find a minimal role of high-order mechanics in glacier evolution, as geometric effects at our site (the presence of an overdeepened bed result in limited horizontal movement of ice (flow speed on the order of a few meters per year. Consequently, high-order and reduced models all predict that Haig Glacier ceases to exist by ca. 2080 under ongoing climate warming. The influence of high-order mechanics is evident, however, in glacier advance scenarios, where ice speeds are greater and ice dynamical effects become more important. Although similar studies on other glaciers are essential to generalize such findings, we advise that high-order mechanics are important and therefore should be considered while modeling the evolution of active glaciers. Reduced model predictions may be adequate for other glaciologic and topographic settings, particularly where flow speeds are low and where mass balance changes dominate over ice dynamics in determining glacier geometry.

  7. Modelling rainfall erosion resulting from climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnell, Peter

    2016-04-01

    It is well known that soil erosion leads to agricultural productivity decline and contributes to water quality decline. The current widely used models for determining soil erosion for management purposes in agriculture focus on long term (~20 years) average annual soil loss and are not well suited to determining variations that occur over short timespans and as a result of climate change. Soil loss resulting from rainfall erosion is directly dependent on the product of runoff and sediment concentration both of which are likely to be influenced by climate change. This presentation demonstrates the capacity of models like the USLE, USLE-M and WEPP to predict variations in runoff and erosion associated with rainfall events eroding bare fallow plots in the USA with a view to modelling rainfall erosion in areas subject to climate change.

  8. Engaging the public on climate change issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, Alice

    2016-03-01

    As a Jefferson Science Fellow from August 2014-August 2015, Alice Bean worked with the Office of Religion and Global Affairs at the U.S. Department of State on climate change and environmental issues. The Office of Religion and Global Affairs works to implement the National Strategy on Religious Leader and Faith Community Engagement which includes building partnerships on environmental issues. With the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties meeting 21 in December, 2015 in Paris, there were and continue to be great opportunities for physicists to interact with policy makers and the general public. As an experimental particle physicist, much was learned about climate change science, how the public views scientists, how science can influence policy, but most especially how to communicate about science.

  9. Climate engineering research : A precautionary response to climate change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reynolds, J.L.; Fleurke, F.M.

    2013-01-01

    In the face of dire forecasts for anthropogenic climate change, climate engineering is increasingly discussed as a possible additional set of responses to reduce climate change’s threat. These proposals have been controversial, in part because they – like climate change itself – pose uncertain risks

  10. Assessing urban climate change resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voskaki, Asimina

    2016-04-01

    Recent extreme weather events demonstrate that many urban environments are vulnerable to climate change impacts and as a consequence designing systems for future climate seems to be an important parameter in sustainable urban planning. The focus of this research is the development of a theoretical framework to assess climate change resilience in urban environments. The methodological approach used encompasses literature review, detailed analysis, and combination of data, and the development of a series of evaluation criteria, which are further analyzed into a list of measures. The choice of the specific measures is based upon various environmental, urban planning parameters, social, economic and institutional features taking into consideration key vulnerabilities and risk associated with climate change. The selected criteria are further prioritized to incorporate into the evaluation framework the level of importance of different issues towards a climate change resilient city. The framework could support decision making as regards the ability of an urban system to adapt. In addition it gives information on the level of adaptation, outlining barriers to sustainable urban planning and pointing out drivers for action and reaction.

  11. Making Sense of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blichfeldt, Nikolaj Vendelbo

    The thesis is an ethnographic description of a climate change mitigation campaign among retirees in the urban residential community Dongping Lane in central Hangzhou, and an examination of local understandings of connections between everyday life in the community and global climate change...... is conceived as part of wider state-sponsored efforts to foster civilized behavior and a sense of belonging to the residential community among urban citizens in China. The campaigners connect unspectacular everyday consumer practices with climate change and citizenship by showing that among them, making...... health, comfort and convenience. Conceived as pleasurable, easy to approach, and good for the body, low-carbon life comes to be seen as a series of hobby-like activities that residents can engage in as part of their quests for good and meaningful lives in old age. Campaigners engage engage in trans-historical...

  12. Climate change and game theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Peter John

    2011-02-01

    This paper examines the problem of achieving global cooperation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Contributions to this problem are reviewed from noncooperative game theory, cooperative game theory, and implementation theory. We examine the solutions to games where players have a continuous choice about how much to pollute, as well as games where players make decisions about treaty participation. The implications of linking cooperation on climate change with cooperation on other issues, such as trade, are also examined. Cooperative and noncooperative approaches to coalition formation are investigated in order to examine the behavior of coalitions cooperating on climate change. One way to achieve cooperation is to design a game, known as a mechanism, whose equilibrium corresponds to an optimal outcome. This paper examines some mechanisms that are based on conditional commitments, and their policy implications. These mechanisms could make cooperation on climate change mitigation more likely.

  13. Climate Change: A Regional Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Inter-American Development Bank (IDB); Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this document is to contribute to the ongoing discussion on climate change in light of the available evidence on the possible channels of transmission of the economic impact of this phenomenon and the results of the latest session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 15), held in Copenhagen from 7 to 18 December 2009. This document has been prepared, at the request of the Government of Mexico, by the Economic Commiss...

  14. [Air quality and climate change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loft, Steffen

    2009-10-26

    Air quality, health and climate change are closely connected. Ozone depends on temperature and the greenhouse gas methane from cattle and biomass. Pollen presence depends on temperature and CO2. The effect of climate change on particulate air pollution is complex, but the likely net effect is greater health risks. Reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions by reduced livestock production and use of combustion for energy production, transport and heating will also improve air quality. Energy savings in buildings and use of CO2 neutral fuels should not deteriorate indoor and outdoor air quality.

  15. Position Statement On Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-01

    The North Carolina Environmental Justice Network (NCEJN), a coalition of grassroots organizations, developed a statement to explain our environmental justice perspective on climate change to predominantly white environmental groups that seek to partner with us. NCEJN opposes strategies that reduce greenhouse emissions while maintaining or magnifying existing social, economic, and environmental injustices. Wealthy communities that consume a disproportionate share of resources avoid the most severe consequences of their consumption by displacing pollution on communities of color and low income. Therefore, the success of climate change activism depends on building an inclusive movement based on principles of racial, social and economic justice, and self-determination for all people.

  16. Lightning Strikes and Attribution of Climatic Change

    CERN Document Server

    Webster, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Using lightning strikes as an example, two possible schemes are discussed for the attribution of changes in event frequency to climate change, and estimating the cost associated with them. The schemes determine the fraction of events that should be attributed to climatic change, and the fraction that should be attributed to natural chance. They both allow for the expected increase in claims and the fluctuations about this expected value. Importantly, the attribution fraction proposed in the second of these schemes is necessarily different to that found in epidemiological studies. This ensures that the statistically expected fraction of attributed claims is correctly equal to the expected increase in claims. The analysis of lightning data highlights two particular difficulties with data-driven, as opposed to modeled, attribution studies. The first is the possibility of unknown "confounding" variables that can influence the strike frequency. This is partly accounted for here by considering the influence of temp...

  17. Maritime Archaeology and Climate Change: An Invitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Jeneva

    2016-12-01

    Maritime archaeology has a tremendous capacity to engage with climate change science. The field is uniquely positioned to support climate change research and the understanding of past human adaptations to climate change. Maritime archaeological data can inform on environmental shifts and submerged sites can serve as an important avenue for public outreach by mobilizing public interest and action towards understanding the impacts of climate change. Despite these opportunities, maritime archaeologists have not fully developed a role within climate change science and policy. Moreover, submerged site vulnerabilities stemming from climate change impacts are not yet well understood. This article discusses potential climate change threats to maritime archaeological resources, the challenges confronting cultural resource managers, and the contributions maritime archaeology can offer to climate change science. Maritime archaeology's ability to both support and benefit from climate change science argues its relevant and valuable place in the global climate change dialogue, but also reveals the necessity for our heightened engagement.

  18. Maritime Archaeology and Climate Change: An Invitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Jeneva

    2016-08-01

    Maritime archaeology has a tremendous capacity to engage with climate change science. The field is uniquely positioned to support climate change research and the understanding of past human adaptations to climate change. Maritime archaeological data can inform on environmental shifts and submerged sites can serve as an important avenue for public outreach by mobilizing public interest and action towards understanding the impacts of climate change. Despite these opportunities, maritime archaeologists have not fully developed a role within climate change science and policy. Moreover, submerged site vulnerabilities stemming from climate change impacts are not yet well understood. This article discusses potential climate change threats to maritime archaeological resources, the challenges confronting cultural resource managers, and the contributions maritime archaeology can offer to climate change science. Maritime archaeology's ability to both support and benefit from climate change science argues its relevant and valuable place in the global climate change dialogue, but also reveals the necessity for our heightened engagement.

  19. Influence of land evapotranspiration on climate variations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    A coupled numerical model of the global atmosphere with a qualified biosphere(GOALS/LASG) has been used to assess the nature of the physical mechanisms for land-atmos-phere interactions, and the impacts of the Asian/North American land-surface evapotranspirationon the regional and global climate. This sensitivity study suggests that the simulated climate wouldbe relatively sensitive to land surface evapotranspiration, especially over the Asian regions. Theremoval of evapotranspiration in Asia would create a warmer and drier climate to a certain degree.Furthermore, the surface evapotranspiration anomalies would make a substantial contribution tothe formation and variation of subtropical anticyclones through the changes in monsoon precipita-tion and the β-effect, but also make a large contribution to the variations of the atmosphericcirculation in the Northern Hemisphere and even the globe. Therefore, besides the traditionalperception that we have generally emphasized on the influence of subtropical anticyclonesactivities on the boreal summer precipitation over the regions of eastern China, the surfaceevapotranspiration anomalies, however, also have substantial impacts on the subtropicalanticyclones through the changes in monsoon precipitation. For this reason, the variation in theinternal heating sources of the atmosphere caused by the land surface evapotranspiration and thevapor phase change during the boreal summer is an important external factor forcing the weatherand climate

  20. Influence of climate changes on the blooms and toxin production of cyanobacteria in the lakes of Latvia (north-eastern Baltic Sea region)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briede, Linda; Barda, Ieva; Purina, Ingrida

    2016-04-01

    Global climate changes have influenced lakes ecosystems resulting in prolonged vegetation season. Long term data shows the earlier warming of water in spring and later cooling in autumn. These modifications are promoting the changes of phytoplankton community from diatom and chrysophytes dominated communities towards cyanobacteria dominated communities. Cyanobacteria are well known as procariotic ancient organisms involved in the production of oxygen, however nowadays they are better known as producers of potent toxins. Long term dynamic of cyanobacterial communities were investigated in lakes Burtnieku and Aluksnes (northern Latvia). Most common cyanobacterial genus were Aphanizomenon, Anabaena, Microcystis, Planktothrix as well as Gloeotrichia known to produce hepatotoxins and neurotoxins. Seasonal toxin production of cyanobacteria was screened using ELISA kits in year 2015. Implications of prolonged cyanobacterial blooms and toxin production on lakes ecosystem are discussed.

  1. Arctic climate change in NORKLIMA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    The NORKLIMA programme is the national Norwegian initiative on climate research established for the period 2004-2013. The programme seeks to generate key knowledge about climate trends, the impacts of climate change, and how Norway can adapt to these changes. The NORKLIMA programme also encompasses research on instruments and policies for reducing emissions. Large-scale Programmes As part of the effort to meet national research-policy priorities, the Research Council has established a special funding instrument called the Large-scale Programmes. This initiative is designed to build long-term knowledge in order to encourage innovation and enhance value creation as well as to help find solutions to important challenges facing society.(Author)

  2. Influence of climate and land use changes on recent trend of soil erosion within the Russian Plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golosov, Valentin; Yermolaev, Oleg; Rysin, Ivan; Litvin, Leonid; Kiryukhina, Zoya; Safina, Guzel

    2016-04-01

    flood levels decreased considerably - in particular, in small rivers. This is confirmed by a serious decrease of floodplain sedimentation rates since 1986 compared with the period from 1964 to 1986. As a result of both positive trend of extreme rainfall and negative trend of surface snow melting runoff, the proportion of sediments eroded from cultivated slopes and delivered by surface runoff to river channels decreased considerably during the last few decades in the southern part of the Russian Plain. Complex assessment of different erosion factors changes is undertaken for the different landscape zones of the Russian Plain. Given analysis allows evaluating of recent trend in erosion rates from cultivated lands. The other indicators of sediment redistribution dynamic (gully head retreat rate, floodplain sedimentation) are also used for assessment of soil erosion rate dynamic under land use and climate changes during last 25-30 years.

  3. A Lesson on Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Jim

    This cooperative learning activity, for grades 7-12, promotes critical thinking skills within the context of learning about the causes and effects of climate change. Objectives include: (1) understanding factors that reduce greenhouse gases; (2) understanding the role of trees in reducing greenhouse gases; (3) identifying foods that produce…

  4. Hydrological response to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yan, Dan; Werners, S.E.; Ludwig, Fulco; Huang, He Qing

    2015-01-01

    Study region: The Pearl River, located in the south of China, is the second largest river in China in terms of streamflow. Study focus: The study aims to assess the impact of climate change on seasonal discharge and extreme flows. For the assessment we use the variable infiltration capacity (VIC)

  5. Students' evaluations about climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardi, Doug; Brandt, Carol B.; Bickel, Elliot S.; Burg, Colin

    2016-05-01

    Scientists regularly evaluate alternative explanations of phenomena and solutions to problems. Students should similarly engage in critical evaluation when learning about scientific and engineering topics. However, students do not often demonstrate sophisticated evaluation skills in the classroom. The purpose of the present study was to investigate middle school students' evaluations when confronted with alternative explanations of the complex and controversial topic of climate change. Through a qualitative analysis, we determined that students demonstrated four distinct categories of evaluation when writing about the connections between evidence and alternative explanations of climate change: (a) erroneous evaluation, (b) descriptive evaluation, (c) relational evaluation, and (d) critical evaluation. These categories represent different types of evaluation quality. A quantitative analysis revealed that types of evaluation, along with plausibility perceptions about the alternative explanations, were significant predictors of postinstructional knowledge about scientific principles underlying the climate change phenomenon. Specifically, more robust evaluations and greater plausibility toward the scientifically accepted model of human-induced climate change predicted greater knowledge. These findings demonstrate that instruction promoting critical evaluation and plausibility appraisal may promote greater understanding of socio-scientific topics and increased use of scientific thinking when considering alternative explanations, as is called for by recent science education reform efforts.

  6. Climate change, zoonoses and India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, B B; Sharma, R; Gill, J P S; Aulakh, R S; Banga, H S

    2011-12-01

    Economic trends have shaped our growth and the growth of the livestock sector, but atthe expense of altering natural resources and systems in ways that are not always obvious. Now, however, the reverse is beginning to happen, i.e. environmental trends are beginning to shape our economy and health status. In addition to water, air and food, animals and birds play a pivotal role in the maintenance and transmission of important zoonotic diseases in nature. It is generally considered that the prevalence of vector-borne and waterborne zoonoses is likely to increase in the coming years due to the effects of global warming in India. In recent years, vector-borne diseases have emerged as a serious public health problem in countries of the South-East Asia region, including India. Vector-borne zoonoses now occur in epidemic form almost on an annual basis, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. New reservoir areas of cutaneous leishmaniosis in South India have been recognised, and the role of climate change in its re-emergence warrants further research, as does the role of climate change in the ascendancy of waterborne and foodborne illness. Similarly, climate change that leads to warmer and more humid conditions may increase the risk of transmission of airborne zoonoses, and hot and drier conditions may lead to a decline in the incidence of disease(s). The prevalence of these zoonotic diseases and their vectors and the effect of climate change on important zoonoses in India are discussed in this review.

  7. Climate Change: Evidence and Causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The fundamentals of climate change are well established: greenhouse gases warm the planet; their concentrations in the atmosphere are increasing; Earth has warmed, and is going to continue warming with a range of impacts. This article summarises the contents of a recent publication issued by the UK's Royal Society and the US National Academy…

  8. The Science of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppenheimer, Michael; Anttila-Hughes, Jesse K.

    2016-01-01

    Michael Oppenheimer and Jesse Anttila-Hughes begin with a primer on how the greenhouse effect works, how we know that Earth is rapidly getting warmer, and how we know that the recent warming is caused by human activity. They explain the sources of scientific knowledge about climate change as well as the basis for the models scientists use to…

  9. Indigenous Peoples and Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelton H. Davis

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available There has been a growing attention on the need to take into account the effects of global climate change. This is particularly so with respect to the increasing amount of green house gas emissions from the Untied States and Europe affecting poor peoples, especially those in developing countries. In 2003, for example, the experts of several international development agencies, including the World Bank, prepared a special report titled “Poverty and Climate Change: Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor through Adaptation” (OECD 2003. This report followed the Eighth Session of the Conference of Parties (COP8 to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC in New Delhi, India in October 2002. It showed that poverty reduction is not only one of the major challenges of the 21st century, but also that climate change is taking place in many developing countries and is increasingly affecting, in a negative fashion, both the economic conditions and the health of poor people and their communities.

  10. The Whiteness of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lars

    2011-01-01

    This article examines two major debates in contemporary Australian discourses on the nation: climate change and whiteness studies. It is primarily concerned with establishing a framework for connecting the two discourses, and in that process it raises pivotal questions about how narratives about...

  11. Climate Change: Evidence and Causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The fundamentals of climate change are well established: greenhouse gases warm the planet; their concentrations in the atmosphere are increasing; Earth has warmed, and is going to continue warming with a range of impacts. This article summarises the contents of a recent publication issued by the UK's Royal Society and the US National Academy of…

  12. Influence of high-order mechanics on simulation of glacier response to climate change: insights from Haig Glacier, Canadian Rocky Mountains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Adhikari

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Evolution of glaciers in response to climate change has mostly been simulated using simplified dynamical models. Because these models do not account for the influence of high-order physics, corresponding results may exhibit some biases. For Haig Glacier in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, we test this hypothesis by comparing simulation results obtained from 3-D numerical models that deal with different assumptions concerning ice-flow physics, ranging from simple shear-deformation to comprehensive Stokes flow. In glacier retreat scenarios, we find a minimal role of high-order mechanics in glacier evolution, as geometric effects at our site (the presence of an overdeepened bed result in limited horizontal movement of ice (flow speed on the order of a few meters per year. Consequently, high-order and reduced models all predict that Haig Glacier ceases to exist by ca. 2080 under ongoing climate warming. The influence of high-order mechanics is evident, however, in glacier advance scenarios, where ice speeds are greater and ice dynamical effects become more important. To generalize these findings for other glacier applications, we advise that high-order mechanics are important and therefore should be considered while modelling the evolution of active glaciers. Reduced model predictions may, however, be adequate for other glaciologic and topographic settings, particularly where flow speeds are low.

  13. Climate change and trace gases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Kharecha, Pushker; Russell, Gary; Lea, David W; Siddall, Mark

    2007-07-15

    Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. One feedback, the 'albedo flip' property of ice/water, provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that 'flips' the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm. Inertia of ice sheet and ocean provides only moderate delay to ice sheet disintegration and a burst of added global warming. Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the largest human-made climate forcing, but other trace constituents are also important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO2 emissions and reduce non-CO2 forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. The most important of the non-CO2 forcings is methane (CH4), as it causes the second largest human-made GHG climate forcing and is the principal cause of increased tropospheric ozone (O3), which is the third largest GHG forcing. Nitrous oxide (N2O) should also be a focus of climate mitigation efforts. Black carbon ('black soot') has a high global warming potential (approx. 2000, 500 and 200 for 20, 100 and 500 years, respectively) and deserves greater attention. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could preserve Arctic ice, while also having major benefits for human health, agricultural productivity and the global environment.

  14. Direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibian populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaustein, Andrew R.; Walls, Susan C.; Bancroft, Betsy A.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Searle, Catherine L.; Gervasi, Stephanie S.

    2010-01-01

    As part of an overall decline in biodiversity, populations of many organisms are declining and species are being lost at unprecedented rates around the world. This includes many populations and species of amphibians. Although numerous factors are affecting amphibian populations, we show potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibians at the individual, population and community level. Shifts in amphibian ranges are predicted. Changes in climate may affect survival, growth, reproduction and dispersal capabilities. Moreover, climate change can alter amphibian habitats including vegetation, soil, and hydrology. Climate change can influence food availability, predator-prey relationships and competitive interactions which can alter community structure. Climate change can also alter pathogen-host dynamics and greatly influence how diseases are manifested. Changes in climate can interact with other stressors such as UV-B radiation and contaminants. The interactions among all these factors are complex and are probably driving some amphibian population declines and extinctions.

  15. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Dawson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1 climate loading dependence; (2 mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3 multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.

  16. Changing Climates @ Colorado State: 100 (Multidisciplinary) Views of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, S.; Calderazzo, J.; Changing Climates, Cmmap Education; Diversity Team

    2011-12-01

    We would like to talk about a multidisciplinary education and outreach program we co-direct at Colorado State University, with support from an NSF-funded STC, CMMAP, the Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes. We are working to raise public literacy about climate change by providing information that is high quality, up to date, thoroughly multidisciplinary, and easy for non-specialists to understand. Our primary audiences are college-level students, their teachers, and the general public. Our motto is Climate Change is Everybody's Business. To encourage and help our faculty infuse climate-change content into their courses, we have organized some 115 talks given by as many different speakers-speakers drawn from 28 academic departments, all 8 colleges at CSU, and numerous other entities from campus, the community, and farther afield. We began with a faculty-teaching-faculty series and then broadened our attentions to the whole campus and surrounding community. Some talks have been for narrowly focused audiences such as extension agents who work on energy, but most are for more eclectic groups of students, staff, faculty, and citizens. We count heads at most events, and our current total is roughly 6,000. We have created a website (http://changingclimates.colostate.edu) that includes videotapes of many of these talks, short videos we have created, and annotated sources that we judge to be accurate, interesting, clearly written, and aimed at non-specialists, including books, articles and essays, websites, and a few items specifically for college teachers (such as syllabi). Pages of the website focus on such topics as how the climate works / how it changes; what's happening / what might happen; natural ecosystems; agriculture; impacts on people; responses from ethics, art, literature; communication; daily life; policy; energy; and-pulling all the pieces together-the big picture. We have begun working on a new series of very short videos that can be

  17. Climate Change and Intertidal Wetlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pauline M. Ross

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Intertidal wetlands are recognised for the provision of a range of valued ecosystem services. The two major categories of intertidal wetlands discussed in this contribution are saltmarshes and mangrove forests. Intertidal wetlands are under threat from a range of anthropogenic causes, some site-specific, others acting globally. Globally acting factors include climate change and its driving cause—the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. One direct consequence of climate change will be global sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and, in the longer term, the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The relative sea level rise experienced at any one locality will be affected by a range of factors, as will the response of intertidal wetlands to the change in sea level. If relative sea level is rising and sedimentation within intertidal wetlands does not keep pace, then there will be loss of intertidal wetlands from the seaward edge, with survival of the ecosystems only possible if they can retreat inland. When retreat is not possible, the wetland area will decline in response to the “squeeze” experienced. Any changes to intertidal wetland vegetation, as a consequence of climate change, will have flow on effects to biota, while changes to biota will affect intertidal vegetation. Wetland biota may respond to climate change by shifting in distribution and abundance landward, evolving or becoming extinct. In addition, impacts from ocean acidification and warming are predicted to affect the fertilisation, larval development, growth and survival of intertidal wetland biota including macroinvertebrates, such as molluscs and crabs, and vertebrates such as fish and potentially birds. The capacity of organisms to move and adapt will depend on their life history characteristics, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, inheritability of adaptive characteristics, and the predicted rates of environmental change.

  18. Analysis on the Climatic Change Characteristics of the Snow Cover Days and Its Influence Factors in Suzhou during Recent 50 Years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    [Objective] The research aimed to study climatic variation characteristics of snow cover days and its influence factors in Suzhou of Anhui Province during recent 50 years. [Method] According to annual snow cover days and correlated data in Suzhou during 1961-2010, by using linear trend method, accumulative anomaly and complete correlation coefficient method, etc., the climatic variation characteristics of snow cover days and its influence factors in Suzhou were analyzed. [Result] In recent 50 years, the sno...

  19. Increased sensitivity to climate change in disturbed ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kroël-Dulay, György; Ransijn, Johannes; Schmidt, Inger Kappel;

    2015-01-01

    , with recently disturbed sites responding to treatments. Furthermore, most of these responses are not rapid (2-5 years) but emerge over a longer term (7-14 years). These results suggest that successional state influences the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate change, and that ecosystems recovering from...... disturbances may be sensitive to even modest climatic changes. A research bias towards undisturbed ecosystems might thus lead to an underestimation of the impacts of climate change....

  20. Climate change and the Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Anderson, Jamie; Anderson, Michael L.; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel; Maurer, Edwin P.

    2016-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages) by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes are much less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. However, the same projections agree that precipitation will be more intense when storms do arrive, even as more dry days will separate storms. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporative demands and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Sea level rise (SLR) during the 20th century was about 22cm, and is projected to increase by at least 3-fold this century. SLR together with land subsidence threatens the Delta with greater vulnerabilities to inundation and salinity intrusion. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include SLR, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflows, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict, except that native species will fare worse than invaders. Successful

  1. Climate change in China and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luo Y.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Since the first assessment report (FAR of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC in 1990, the international scientific community has made substantial progresses in climate change sciences. Changes in components of climate system, including the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, indicate that global warming is unequivocal. Instrumental records demonstrate that the global mean temperature has a significant increasing trend during the 20th century and in the latest 50 years the warming become faster. In the meantime, the global sea level has a strong increasing trend, as well as the snow coverage of Northern Hemisphere showed an obvious downward trend. Moreover, the global warming plays a key role in significantly affecting the climate system and social-economy on both global and regional scales, such as sea level rise, melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets, desertification, deforestation, increase of weather extremes (typhoon, hurricane and rainstorm and so on. The state of the art understanding of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 was most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in the concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Climate change issues, as a grave challenge to the sustainable development of the human society, have received ever greater attention from the international community. Deeply cognizant of the complexity and extensive influence of these issues and fully aware of the arduousness and urgency of the task of addressing climate change, the Chinese government is determined to address climate change in the process of pursuing sustainable development. The facts of climate change in China and its impacts, and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change are introduced in this paper.

  2. Undergraduate Students' Conceptions of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenbath, K. L.

    2011-12-01

    constructed definition removes human-causes from association with the word "climate change", which may influence their climate change understanding. Of the two higher achieving students, one emphasized anthropogenic climate change at the beginning of the semester, but later focused on natural climate change during his interviews. The other high achieving student included tangential environmental topics in her descriptions of climate change throughout the entire semester, thus conflating climate change's definition. These alternative definitions of climate change indicate that the learners constructed hybrid conceptions in order to incorporate class content with their prior ideas. These hybrid conceptions indicate that the students' understandings lie somewhere between misconceptions and conceptual change. Since the students demonstrated these hybrid conceptions at the end of class, perhaps more time is needed for the students to process the information. These case studies identify the gaps the professor should address for conceptual change to fully occur.

  3. Grapevine phenology and climate change in Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cola, G.; Failla, O.; Maghradze, D.; Megrelidze, L.; Mariani, L.

    2016-10-01

    While the climate of Western Europe has been deeply affected by the abrupt climate change that took place in the late `1980s of the twentieth century, a similar signal is detected only few years later, in 1994, in Georgia. Grapevine phenology is deeply influenced by climate and this paper aimed to analyze how phenological timing changed before and after the climatic change of 1994. Availability of thermal resources in the two climatic phases for the five altitudinal belts in the 0-1250-m range was analyzed. A phenological dataset gathered in two experimental sites during the period 2012-2014, and a suitable thermal dataset was used to calibrate a phenological model based on the normal approach and able to describe BBCH phenological stages 61 (beginning of flowering), 71 (fruit set), and 81 (veraison). Calibration was performed for four relevant Georgian varieties (Mtsvane Kakhuri, Rkatsiteli, Ojaleshi, and Saperavi). The model validation was performed on an independent 3-year dataset gathered in Gorizia (Italy). Furthermore, in the case of variety Rkatsiteli, the model was applied to the 1974-2013 thermal time series in order to obtain phenological maps of the Georgian territory. Results show that after the climate change of 1994, Rkatsiteli showed an advance, more relevant at higher altitudes where the whole increase of thermal resource was effectively translated in phenological advance. For instance the average advance of veraison was 5.9 days for 250-500 m asl belt and 18.1 days for 750-1000 m asl). On the other hand, at lower altitudes, phenological advance was depleted by superoptimal temperatures. As a final result, some suggestions for the adaptation of viticultural practices to the current climatic phase are provided.

  4. A common-sense climate index: is climate changing noticeably?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Glascoe, J.; Ruedy, R.

    1998-01-01

    We propose an index of climate change based on practical climate indicators such as heating degree days and the frequency of intense precipitation. We find that in most regions the index is positive, the sense predicted to accompany global warming. In a few regions, especially in Asia and western North America, the index indicates that climate change should be apparent already, but in most places climate trends are too small to stand out above year-to-year variability. The climate index is strongly correlated with global surface temperature, which has increased as rapidly as projected by climate models in the 1980s. We argue that the global area with obvious climate change will increase notably in the next few years. But we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has declined in recent years, and thus there is an opportunity to keep climate change in the 21st century less than "business-as-usual" scenarios.

  5. Climate change predicted to negatively influence surface soil health of dryland cropping systems in the Inland Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soil organic matter (SOM) is a key indicator of agricultural productivity and overall soil health. Currently, dryland cropping systems of the inland Pacific Northwest (iPNW) span a large gradient in mean annual temperature (MAT) and precipitation (MAP). These climatic drivers are major determinants ...

  6. Influence of urban resilience measures in the magnitude and behaviour of energy fluxes in the city of Porto (Portugal) under a climate change scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rafael, S., E-mail: sandra.rafael@ua.pt; Martins, H.; Sá, E.; Carvalho, D.; Borrego, C.; Lopes, M.

    2016-10-01

    Different urban resilience measures, such as the increase of urban green areas and the application of white roofs, were evaluated with the WRF-SUEWS modelling system. The case study consists of five heat waves occurring in Porto (Portugal) urban area in a future climate scenario. Meteorological forcing and boundary data were downscaled for Porto urban area from the CMIP5 earth system model MPI-ESM, for the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 scenario. The influence of different resilience measures on the energy balance components was quantified and compared between each other. Results show that the inclusion of green urban areas increases the evaporation and the availability of surface moisture, redirecting the energy to the form of latent heat flux (maximum increase of + 200 W m{sup −2}) rather than to sensible heat. The application of white roofs increases the solar radiation reflection, due to the higher albedo of such surfaces, reducing both sensible and storage heat flux (maximum reductions of − 62.8 and − 35 W m{sup −2}, respectively). The conjugations of the individual benefits related to each resilience measure shows that this measure is the most effective one in terms of improving the thermal comfort of the urban population, particularly due to the reduction of both sensible and storage heat flux. The obtained results contribute to the knowledge of the surface-atmosphere exchanges and can be of great importance for stakeholders and decision-makers. - Graphical abstract: A combination of white roofs and increased green urban areas has the potential do reduce the sensible heat flux of urban areas, being of great effectiveness in improving the thermal comfort of the urban population under future climate. - Highlights: • Evaluation of energy fluxes behaviour under RCP8.5 climate change scenario • Increase in the frequency, duration and magnitude of severe heat waves • Cities must become resilient to be able to deal with climate change

  7. Loss of frugivore seed dispersal services under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokany, Karel; Prasad, Soumya; Westcott, David A

    2014-05-27

    The capacity of species to track shifting climates into the future will strongly influence outcomes for biodiversity under a rapidly changing climate. However, we know remarkably little about the dispersal abilities of most species and how these may be influenced by climate change. Here we show that climate change is projected to substantially reduce the seed dispersal services provided by frugivorous vertebrates in rainforests across the Australian Wet Tropics. Our model projections show reductions in both median and long-distance seed dispersal, which may markedly reduce the capacity of many rainforest plant species to track shifts in suitable habitat under climate change. However, our analyses suggest that active management to maintain the abundances of a small set of important frugivores under climate change could markedly reduce the projected loss of seed dispersal services and facilitate shifting distributions of rainforest plant species.

  8. Transatlantic flight times and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Paul

    2016-04-01

    Aircraft do not fly through a vacuum, but through an atmosphere whose meteorological characteristics are changing because of global warming. The impacts of aviation on climate change have long been recognised, but the impacts of climate change on aviation have only recently begun to emerge. These impacts include intensified turbulence (Williams and Joshi 2013) and increased take-off weight restrictions. A forthcoming study (Williams 2016) investigates the influence of climate change on flight routes and journey times. This is achieved by feeding synthetic atmospheric wind fields generated from climate model simulations into a routing algorithm of the type used operationally by flight planners. The focus is on transatlantic flights between London and New York, and how they change when the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is doubled. It is found that a strengthening of the prevailing jet-stream winds causes eastbound flights to significantly shorten and westbound flights to significantly lengthen in all seasons, causing round-trip journey times to increase. Eastbound and westbound crossings in winter become approximately twice as likely to take under 5h 20m and over 7h 00m, respectively. The early stages of this effect perhaps contributed to a well-publicised British Airways flight from New York to London on 8 January 2015, which took a record time of only 5h 16m because of a strong tailwind from an unusually fast jet stream. Even assuming no future growth in aviation, extrapolation of our results to all transatlantic traffic suggests that aircraft may collectively be airborne for an extra 2,000 hours each year, burning an extra 7.2 million gallons of jet fuel at a cost of US 22 million, and emitting an extra 70 million kg of carbon dioxide. These findings provide further evidence of the two-way interaction between aviation and climate change. References Williams PD (2016) Transatlantic flight times and climate change. Environmental Research Letters, in

  9. Asia's changing role in global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqi, Toufiq A

    2008-10-01

    Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.

  10. Climate Change and Civil Violence

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vink, G.; Plancherel, Y.; Hennet, C.; Jones, K. D.; Abdullah, A.; Bradshaw, J.; Dee, S.; Deprez, A.; Pasenello, M.; Plaza-Jennings, E.; Roseman, D.; Sopher, P.; Sung, E.

    2009-05-01

    The manifestations of climate change can result in humanitarian impacts that reverse progress in poverty- reduction, create shortages of food and resources, lead to migration, and ultimately result in civil violence and conflict. Within the continent of Africa, we have found that environmentally-related variables are either the cause or the confounding factor for over 80% of the civil violence events during the last 10 years. Using predictive climate models and land-use data, we are able to identify populations in Africa that are likely to experience the most severe climate-related shocks. Through geospatial analysis, we are able to overlay these areas of high risk with assessments of both the local population's resiliency and the region's capacity to respond to climate shocks should they occur. The net result of the analysis is the identification of locations that are becoming particularly vulnerable to future civil violence events (vulnerability hotspots) as a result of the manifestations of climate change. For each population group, over 600 social, economic, political, and environmental indicators are integrated statistically to measures the vulnerability of African populations to environmental change. The indicator time-series are filtered for data availability and redundancy, broadly ordered into four categories (social, political, economic and environmental), standardized and normalized. Within each category, the dominant modes of variability are isolated by principal component analysis and the loadings of each component for each variable are used to devise composite index scores. Comparisons of past vulnerability with known environmentally-related conflicts demonstrates the role that such vulnerability hotspot maps can play in evaluating both the potential for, and the significance of, environmentally-related civil violence events. Furthermore, the analysis reveals the major variables that are responsible for the population's vulnerability and therefore

  11. Climate change mitigation in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Bo

    2012-07-01

    China has been experiencing great economic development and fast urbanisation since its reforms and opening-up policy in 1978. However, these changes are reliant on consumption of primary energy, especially coal, characterised by high pollution and low efficiency. China's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) being the most significant contributor, have also been increasing rapidly in the past three decades. Responding to both domestic challenges and international pressure regarding energy, climate change and environment, the Chinese government has made a point of addressing climate change since the early 2000s. This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of China's CO{sub 2} emissions and policy instruments for mitigating climate change. In the analysis, China's CO{sub 2} emissions in recent decades were reviewed and the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis examined. Using the mostly frequently studied macroeconomic factors and time-series data for the period of 1980-2008, the existence of an EKC relationship between CO{sub 2} per capita and GDP per capita was verified. However, China's CO{sub 2} emissions will continue to grow over coming decades and the turning point in overall CO{sub 2} emissions will appear in 2078 according to a crude projection. More importantly, CO{sub 2} emissions will not spontaneously decrease if China continues to develop its economy without mitigating climate change. On the other hand, CO{sub 2} emissions could start to decrease if substantial efforts are made. China's present mitigation target, i.e. to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 compared with the 2005 level, was then evaluated. Three business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios were developed and compared with the level of emissions according to the mitigation target. The calculations indicated that decreasing the CO{sub 2} intensity of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 is a challenging but hopeful target. To

  12. Climate change and the ash dieback crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goberville, Eric; Hautekèete, Nina-Coralie; Kirby, Richard R.; Piquot, Yves; Luczak, Christophe; Beaugrand, Grégory

    2016-01-01

    Beyond the direct influence of climate change on species distribution and phenology, indirect effects may also arise from perturbations in species interactions. Infectious diseases are strong biotic forces that can precipitate population declines and lead to biodiversity loss. It has been shown in forest ecosystems worldwide that at least 10% of trees are vulnerable to extinction and pathogens are increasingly implicated. In Europe, the emerging ash dieback disease caused by the fungus Hymenoscyphus fraxineus, commonly called Chalara fraxinea, is causing a severe mortality of common ash trees (Fraxinus excelsior); this is raising concerns for the persistence of this widespread tree, which is both a key component of forest ecosystems and economically important for timber production. Here, we show how the pathogen and climate change may interact to affect the future spatial distribution of the common ash. Using two presence-only models, seven General Circulation Models and four emission scenarios, we show that climate change, by affecting the host and the pathogen separately, may uncouple their spatial distribution to create a mismatch in species interaction and so a lowering of disease transmission. Consequently, as climate change expands the ranges of both species polewards it may alleviate the ash dieback crisis in southern and occidental regions at the same time. PMID:27739483

  13. Holocene climatic change in Hunshandake Desert

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIN Heling; SU Zhizhu; SUN Liangying; SUN Zhong; ZHANG Hong; JIN Liya

    2004-01-01

    Research on the geological data of Hunshandake Desert in China monsoon region revealed that Holocene summer monsoon had experienced six prevailing periods and seven weakening periods. The climatic humidity and the vegetation had also undergone the similar periodical variation influenced by the monsoon periodicity. The period when summer monsoon prevailed or winter monsoon weakened and climatic humidity and vegetation coverage relatively increased, corresponded to the global warming events;whereas the period when summer monsoon weakened or winter monsoon prevailed and climatic humidity and vegetation coverage relatively decreased, corresponded to the arid events in middle to low latitudes and the cold events in North Atlantic. As for the changing regularity of summer monsoon intensity there were two distinct periodicities of 1456 years and 494 years, also these two periodicities had global significance.

  14. Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation

    CERN Document Server

    Seiner, John; Suzuki, Toshio; Lackner, Maximilian

    2012-01-01

    There is a mounting consensus that human behavior is changing the global climate and its consequence could be catastrophic. Reducing the 24 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions from stationary and mobile sources is a gigantic task involving both technological challenges and monumental financial and societal costs. The pursuit of sustainable energy resources, environment, and economy has become a complex issue of global scale that affects the daily life of every citizen of the world. The present mitigation activities range from energy conservation, carbon-neutral energy conversions, carbon advanced combustion process that produce no greenhouse gases and that enable carbon capture and sequestion, to other advanced technologies. From its causes and impacts to its solutions, the issues surrounding climate change involve multidisciplinary science and technology. This handbook will provide a single source of this information. The book will be divided into the following sections: Scientific Evidence of Cl...

  15. Influence of climate change on plant phenology in Guilin%气候变化对桂林植物物候的影响

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    廖雪萍; 李耀先; 黄梅丽; 李永健; 史彩霞; 徐圣璇

    2012-01-01

    Mathematical statistics such as linear trend estimation, Mann-Kendall method etc. were applied to investigate tendencies of climate change during 1951 - 2009 and phenology of three kinds of plant in 1983 - 2009,as well as the correlations with temperature,sunshine duration and precipitation,and afterwards, were discussed the tendencies of the responses of phenological events to the main climatic factors influencing,together with their differences in abrupt change in tendencies and linkage. The results showed that the phenological events were changed in varying degrees along with local climate change, the plant phenology tended to have spring phenology advance and autumn phenology delay,but the leaf growing stage was prolonged. Average temperature was a climate factor greatly affecting the phenology,an increase of average temperature by 1 'C would advance spring phenology by 5 d,delay autumn phenology by 8 d,but prolonged the leaf growing stage by 27 d. Generally,the sudden change in spring phenology and the green-leaf growing stage appeared after that in temperature, and the curve after abrupt point showed temperature rise for spring phenological events happened in advance and longer green-leaf stage. But there was not relationship between Jump change of autumn phenology and abrupt point for air temperature.As a result,the phenological response to climate change was remarkable,and it would provide theoretical basis for agricultural production and environmental protection.%利用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall突变检测等方法,对桂林气候(1951~2009年)和3种植物物候(1983~2009年)的趋势变化特征进行了分析,并探讨了物候期与气温、日照、降水等气象因子的相关性及其对主要气候影响因子的响应情况.结果表明:在当地气候变化背景下,桂林市植物物候期发生了不同程度的变化,春季物候期提前,秋季物候期推迟,绿叶期延长;平均气温是影响植物物候期最为显著的

  16. Impact on human health of climate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franchini, Massimo; Mannucci, Pier Mannuccio

    2015-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that climate is rapidly changing. These changes, which are mainly driven by the dramatic increase of greenhouse gas emissions from anthropogenic activities, have the potential to affect human health in several ways. These include a global rise in average temperature, an increased frequency of heat waves, of weather events such as hurricanes, cyclones and drought periods, plus an altered distribution of allergens and vector-borne infectious diseases. The cardiopulmonary system and the gastrointestinal tract are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of global warming. Moreover, some infectious diseases and their animal vectors are influenced by climate changes, resulting in higher risk of typhus, cholera, malaria, dengue and West Nile virus infection. On the other hand, at mid latitudes warming may reduce the rate of diseases related to cold temperatures (such as pneumonia, bronchitis and arthritis), but these benefits are unlikely to rebalance the risks associated to warming.

  17. Climate change effects for phenological processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilla Dede

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change may shift dates of phenological phase of plants. We can even demonstrate changes in plant growth due to climate change by model simulations. Earth warming will accelerate appearance of the phenological phases earlier. However, not only temperature can affect on that, but some other meteorological factors as well.The theoretical implications of climate change is the main goal of the present work using strategic modeling and a 140 years long temperature data set. Analysis of the Geophyton Phenology Database of the ELTE Botanical Garden is also made for 24 meteorological factors’ effect on the first bud appearance, the beginning of flowering, and the end of flowering. The found regression models show the relationships between phenological phase’ dates and meteorological factors.Finally, the rising temperatures are variously influencing phenological dates of selected species involved a Theoretical ecosístem. The daily fluctuation of temperature and the frosty day number are strongly influence geophyton plants and their pheonological phase’ dates.

  18. Challenges and Possibilities in Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pruneau,, Diane; Khattabi, Abdellatif; Demers, Melanie

    2010-01-01

    Educating and communicating about climate change is challenging. Researchers reported that climate change concepts are often misunderstood. Some people do not believe that climate change will have impacts on their own life. Other challenges may include people's difficulty in perceiving small or gradual environmental changes, the fact that…

  19. Teaching Climate Change Through Music

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, P. S.

    2007-12-01

    During 2006, Peter Weiss aka "The Singing Scientist" performed many music assemblies for elementary schools (K-5) in Santa Cruz County, California, USA. These assemblies were an opportunity for him to mix a discussion of climate change with rock n' roll. In one song called "Greenhouse Glasses", Peter and his band the "Earth Rangers" wear over-sized clown glasses with "molecules" hanging off them (made with Styrofoam balls and pipe cleaners). Each molecule is the real molecular structure of a greenhouse gas, and the song explains how when the wearer of these glasses looks up in the sky, he/she can see the "greenhouse gases floating by." "I've seen more of them this year than the last / 'Cuz fossil fuels are burning fast / I wish everyone could see through these frames / Then maybe we could prevent climate change" Students sing, dance and get a visual picture of something that is invisible, yet is part of a very real problem. This performance description is used as an example of an educational style that can reach a wide audience and provide a framework for the audience as learners to assimilate future information on climate change. The hypothesis is that complex socio-environmental issues like climate change that must be taught in order to achieve sustainability are best done so through alternative mediums like music. Students develop awareness which leads to knowledge about chemistry, physics, and biology. These kinds of experiences which connect science learning to fun activities and community building are seriously lacking in primary and secondary schools and are a big reason why science illiteracy is a current social problem. Science education is also paired with community awareness (including the local plant/animal community) and cooperation. The Singing Scientist attempts to create a culture where it is cool to care about the environment. Students end up gardening in school gardens together and think about their "ecological footprint".

  20. Complexity in Climate Change Manipulation Experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreyling, Juergen; Beier, Claus

    2014-01-01

    Climate change goes beyond gradual changes in mean conditions. It involves increased variability in climatic drivers and increased frequency and intensity of extreme events. Climate manipulation experiments are one major tool to explore the ecological impacts of climate change. Until now, precipi...... variability in temperature are ecologically important. Embracing complexity in future climate change experiments in general is therefore crucial.......Climate change goes beyond gradual changes in mean conditions. It involves increased variability in climatic drivers and increased frequency and intensity of extreme events. Climate manipulation experiments are one major tool to explore the ecological impacts of climate change. Until now......, precipitation experiments have dealt with temporal variability or extreme events, such as drought, resulting in a multitude of approaches and scenarios with limited comparability among studies. Temperature manipulations have mainly been focused only on warming, resulting in better comparability among studies...

  1. NASA Nice Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frink, K.; Crocker, S.; Jones, W., III; Marshall, S. S.; Anuradha, D.; Stewart-Gurley, K.; Howard, E. M.; Hill, E.; Merriweather, E.

    2013-12-01

    Authors: 1 Kaiem Frink, 4 Sherry Crocker, 5 Willie Jones, III, 7 Sophia S.L. Marshall, 6 Anuadha Dujari 3 Ervin Howard 1 Kalota Stewart-Gurley 8 Edwinta Merriweathe Affiliation: 1. Mathematics & Computer Science, Virginia Union University, Richmond, VA, United States. 2. Mathematics & Computer Science, Elizabeth City State Univ, Elizabeth City, NC, United States. 3. Education, Elizabeth City State University, Elizabeth City, NC, United States. 4. College of Education, Fort Valley State University , Fort Valley, GA, United States. 5. Education, Tougaloo College, Jackson, MS, United States. 6. Mathematics, Delaware State University, Dover, DE, United States. 7. Education, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS, United States. 8. Education, Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical University, Huntsville, AL, United States. ABSTRACT: In this research initiative, the 2013-2014 NASA NICE workshop participants will present best educational practices for incorporating climate change pedagogy. The presentation will identify strategies to enhance instruction of pre-service teachers to aligned with K-12 Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) standards. The presentation of best practices should serve as a direct indicator to address pedagogical needs to include climate education within a K-12 curriculum Some of the strategies will include inquiry, direct instructions, and cooperative learning . At this particular workshop, we have learned about global climate change in regards to how this is going to impact our life. Participants have been charged to increase the scientific understanding of pre-service teachers education programs nationally to incorporate climate education lessons. These recommended practices will provide feasible instructional strategies that can be easily implemented and used to clarify possible misconceptions and ambiguities in scientific knowledge. Additionally, the presentation will promote an awareness to the many facets in which climate

  2. Climate change mitigation in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mackenzie, G.A.; Turkson, J.K.; Davidson, O.R. [eds.

    1998-10-01

    The UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (UCCEE) in conjunction with the Southern Centre for Energy and Environment (SCEE) hosted a conference on `Climate Change Mitigation in Africa` between 18 and 20 May. The Conference set out to address the following main objectives: to present to a wider audience the results of UNEP/GEF and related country studies; to present results of regional mitigation analysis; exchange of information with similar projects in the region; to expose countries to conceptual and methodological issues related to climate change mitigation; to provide input to national development using climate change related objectives. This volume contains reports of the presentations and discussions, which took place at the conference at Victoria Falls between 18 and 20 May 1998. Representatives of 11 country teams made presentations and in addition two sub-regions were discussed: the Maghreb region and SADC. The conference was attended by a total of 63 people, representing 22 African countries as well as international organisations. (EG)

  3. Climate Change: a Theoretical Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Ishaq-ur Rahman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate Change has been undoubtedly the most illustrious environmental issue since late 20th century. But neither the discourse merely emerged during that time, nor it was problematized in the same way since its onset. History of Climate Change discourse reveals that from a purely scientific concern it has turned into a public agenda that is nowadays more inclined to be development problem. Transformations have brought about a complete new paradigm every time. This article presents a theoretical analysis of the Climate Change discourse and to do so it captured the underlying philosophy of the issue using Thomas Kuhn’s well-known thesis of ‘paradigm shift’. In particular it discusses about the crisis that lead the issue towards transformations; explores key perspectives around the crisis thus representation of the issue in the environmental discourse over the time. While this paper establishes that with the beginning of the 21st century, the discourse entered into a new paradigm and will reach to a critical point by the end of 2012, it finally postulates some measures that the discourse might integrate with the existing to advance beyond that point.

  4. Past and Current Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercedes Rodríguez Ruibal, Ma

    2014-05-01

    In 1837 the Swiss geologist and palaeontologist Louis Agassiz was the first scientist to propose the existence of an ice age in the Earth's past. Nearly two centuries after discussing global glacial periods... while the average global temperature is rising very quickly because of our economic and industrial model. In tribute to these pioneers, we have selected a major climate change of the past as the Snowball Earth and, through various activities in the classroom, compared to the current anthropogenic climate change. First, we include multiple geological processes that led to a global glaciation 750 million years ago as the decrease in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4, the effect of climate variations in solar radiation due to emissions of volcanic dust and orbital changes (Milankovitch cycles), being an essential part of this model the feedback mechanism of the albedo of the ice on a geological scale. Moreover, from simple experiments and studies in the classroom this time we can compare the past with the current anthropogenic global warming we are experiencing and some of its consequences, highlighting that affect sea level rise, increased extreme and effects on health and the biosphere weather.

  5. Cosmic rays and space weather: effects on global climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. I. Dorman

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider possible effects of cosmic rays and some other space factors on the Earth's climate change. It is well known that the system of internal and external factors formatting the climate is very unstable; decreasing planetary temperature leads to an increase of snow surface, and decrease of the total solar energy input into the system decreases the planetary temperature even more, etc. From this it follows that even energetically small factors may have a big influence on climate change. In our opinion, the most important of these factors are cosmic rays and cosmic dust through their influence on clouds, and thus, on climate.

  6. Exploring the Multifaceted Topic of Climate Change in Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

    2015-12-01

    As the effects of climate change become more profound, climate literacy becomes increasingly important. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) responds to this need through the publication of Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate. Both publications incorporate the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the USGCRP's Third National Climate Assessment. Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive, multidisciplinary information related to various topics. Additionally, each chapter closes with a For Further Exploration essay, which addresses specific topics that complement a chapter concept. Web Resources, which encourage additional exploration of chapter content, and Scientific Literature, from which chapter content was derived can also be found at the conclusion of each chapter. Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics, including the scientific principles that govern Earth's climate system and basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate the system. Released in fall 2015, Living With Our Changing Climate takes a more narrow approach and investigates human and ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change, the role of energy choices in affecting climate, actions humans can take through adaption, mitigation, and policy to lessen vulnerabilities, and psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial. While Living With Our Changing Climate is intended for programs looking to add a climate element into their curriculum, Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course. In a 2015 survey of California University of Pennsylvania undergraduate students using Our Changing Climate, 82% found it comfortable to read and utilized its interactive components and resources. Both ebooks illuminate the multidisciplinary aspect of climate change, providing the opportunity for a more sustainable future.

  7. Climate change: menance or myth?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pearce, F.

    2005-02-12

    Sceptics claim that global warming is a fantasy dreamed up by climate scientists. At the time when the Kyoto Protocol comes into force the author reports that a wealth of uncontested evidence shows that human activity is influencing the global environment even if we do not know by how much. The opinions of the sceptics are reported and discussed together with recent research results and questions of uncertainty are raised. There is a high degree of consensus amongst scientists about the basic science of global warming. 3 figs., 2 photos.

  8. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Biodiversity Conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change threatens to create fundamental shifts in in the distributions and abundances of species. Given projected losses, increased emphasis on management for ecosystem resilience to help buffer fish and wildlife populations against climate change is emerging. Such effort...

  9. Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

    2008-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

  10. Mars Recent Climate Change Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberle, Robert M.; Owen, Sandra J.

    2012-11-01

    Mars Recent Climate Change Workshop NASA/Ames Research Center May 15-17, 2012 Climate change on Mars has been a subject of great interest to planetary scientists since the 1970's when orbiting spacecraft first discovered fluvial landforms on its ancient surfaces and layered terrains in its polar regions. By far most of the attention has been directed toward understanding how "Early Mars" (i.e., Mars >~3.5 Gya) could have produced environmental conditions favorable for the flow of liquid water on its surface. Unfortunately, in spite of the considerable body of work performed on this subject, no clear consensus has emerged on the nature of the early Martian climate system because of the difficulty in distinguishing between competing ideas given the ambiguities in the available geological, mineralogical, and isotopic records. For several reasons, however, the situation is more tractable for "Recent Mars" (i.e., Mars during past 20 My or so). First, the geologic record is better preserved and evidence for climate change on this time scale has been building since the rejuvenation of the Mars Exploration Program in the late 1990's. The increasing coverage of the planet from orbit and the surface, coupled with accurate measurements of surface topography, increasing spatial resolution of imaging cameras, improved spectral resolution of infrared sensors, and the ability to probe the subsurface with radar, gamma rays, and neutron spectroscopy, has not only improved the characterization of previously known climate features such as polar layered terrains and glacier-related landforms, but has also revealed the existence of many new features related to recent climate change such as polygons, gullies, concentric crater fill, and a latitude dependent mantle. Second, the likely cause of climate change - spin axis/orbital variations - is more pronounced on Mars compared to Earth. Spin axis/orbital variations alter the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of sunlight, which can

  11. The science of climate change.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doctor, R. D.

    1999-09-10

    A complex debate is underway on climate change linked to proposals for costly measures that would reshape our power grid. This confronts technical experts outside of the geophysical disciplines with extensive, but unfamiliar, data both supporting and refuting claims that serious action is warranted. For example, evidence is brought to the table from one group of astrophysicists concerned with sunspots--this group believes there is no issue man can manage; while another group of oceanographers concerned with the heat balance in the world's oceans are very alarmed at the loss of arctic ice. What is the evidence? In an effort to put some of these issues in perspective for a technical audience, without a background in geophysics, a brief survey will consider (1) an overview of the 300 years of scientific inquiry on man's relationship to climate; (2) a basic discussion of what is meant by the ''greenhouse'' and why there are concerns which include not only CO{sub 2}, but also CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, and CFC's; (3) the geological record on CO{sub 2}--which likely was present at 1,000 times current levels when life began; (4) the solar luminosity and sunspot question; and (5) the current evidence for global climate change. We are at a juncture where we are attempting to understand the earth as an integrated dynamic system, rather than a collection of isolated components.

  12. Forest Policies Addressing Climate Change in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    As a developing country with a large population and a fragile ecological environment, China is particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Beginning with the Rio Conference of 1992 China has played a progressively enhanced role in combating climate change. A series of policies and measures to address climate change have been taken in the overall context of national sustainable development strategy, making positive contributions to the mitigation and adaptation to climate change, among ...

  13. Risk Communication, Moral Emotions and Climate Change.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roeser, Sabine

    2012-01-01

    This article discusses the potential role that emotions might play in enticing a lifestyle that diminishes climate change. Climate change is an important challenge for society. There is a growing consensus that climate change is due to our behavior, but few people are willing to significantly adapt

  14. Climate Change Education for Mitigation and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Allison

    2012-01-01

    This article makes the case for the education sector an untapped opportunity to combat climate change. It sets forth a definition of Climate Change Education for Sustainable Development that is comprehensive and multidisciplinary and asserts that it must not only include relevant content knowledge on climate change, environmental and social…

  15. Climate Change Ignorance: An Unacceptable Legacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boon, Helen J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change effects will be most acutely felt by future generations. Recent prior research has shown that school students' knowledge of climate change science is very limited in rural Australia. The purpose of this study was to assess the capacity of preservice teachers and parents to transmit climate change information and understanding to…

  16. Framing climate change in a popularised setting:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Anne Lise; Rasmussen, Kirsten Wølch; Engberg, Jan

    Framing climate change in a popularised setting: The case of the COP conferences The major project from which this presentation has emerged intends to analyze the media communication in connection with mainly the COP15 conference in Copenhagen on climate change 2009 in a number of European...... of the conference. In our part of the project, we look at how knowledge is created via the choice of metaphors. On the basis of an analysis of the framing of the COP15 conference and its goals as presented in the introductory statements by the two Danish presidents of the conference we have found a range of salient...... and with the introductory statement by the president of the Cancún conference in 2010 in order to assess possible influences in the framing from the national and the political setting....

  17. Conceptualizing Climate Change in the Context of a Climate System: Implications for Climate and Environmental Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Roychoudhury, Anita; Hirsch, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Today there is much interest in teaching secondary students about climate change. Much of this effort has focused directly on students' understanding of climate change. We hypothesize, however, that in order for students to understand climate change they must first understand climate as a system and how changes to this system due to both natural…

  18. Were Upper Pleistocene human/non-human predator occupations at the Témara caves (El Harhoura 2 and El Mnasra, Morocco) influenced by climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campmas, Emilie; Michel, Patrick; Costamagno, Sandrine; Amani, Fethi; Stoetzel, Emmanuelle; Nespoulet, Roland; El Hajraoui, Mohamed Abdeljalil

    2015-01-01

    The influence of climate change on human settlements in coastal areas is a central question for archaeologists. This paper addresses this issue by focusing on the Témara region in Morocco. The study area was selected for two main reasons. First, it contains numerous caves with Upper Pleistocene deposits, which have yielded remains of anatomically modern humans in association with Aterian and Iberomaurusian artifacts. Second, these caves are currently located on the shore, thus this region is particularly sensitive to major climate change and sea level fluctuations. Diachronic taphonomic study of faunal remains from two sites in the region, El Harhoura 2 and El Mnasra caves, shows alternating human/non-human predator occupations. The lower layers of El Mnasra Cave dating to Oxygen Isotope Stage (OIS) 5 have yielded diverse ungulate remains with significant anthropogenic impact marks, together with numerous mollusk shells, Nassarius shell beads, hearths, lithics, some bone tools and used pigments. Faunal remains from the upper layers dating to OIS 4, 3 and 2 of El Harhoura 2 and El Mnasra caves, largely dominated by gazelles, provide evidence of carnivore activities, such as tooth marks, numerous semi-digested bones and coprolites alongside some anthropogenic signatures (cut marks and burnt bones). Non-human predators appear to be the main agents responsible for faunal modifications and accumulations. The 'non-intensive' nature of human occupation is confirmed by analyses of the lithic industry at El Harhoura 2. The 'intensive' human occupations date to OIS 5 and could have taken place during wet periods in connection with high sea levels, which allowed the exploitation of shellfish in this area. 'Non-intensive' human occupations generally correspond to arid periods and lower sea levels, during which the Témara area was further inland and may have been less attractive to humans.

  19. A National Road Map to a Climate Literate Society: Advancing Climate Literacy by Coordinating Federal Climate Change Educational Programs (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niepold, F.; Karsten, J. L.

    2009-12-01

    Over the 21st century, climate scientists expect Earth's temperature to continue increasing, very likely more than it did during the 20th century. Two anticipated results are rising global sea level and increasing frequency and intensity of heat waves, droughts, and floods. [IPCC 2007, USGCRP 2009] These changes will affect almost every aspect of human society, including economic prosperity, human and environmental health, and national security. Climate change will bring economic and environmental challenges as well as opportunities, and citizens who have an understanding of climate science will be better prepared to respond to both. Society needs citizens who understand the climate system and know how to apply that knowledge in their careers and in their engagement as active members of their communities. Climate change will continue to be a significant element of public discourse. Understanding the essential principles of climate science will enable all people to assess news stories and contribute to their everyday conversations as informed citizens. Key to our nations response to climate change will be a Climate Literate society that understands their influence on climate and climate’s influence on them and society. In order to ensure the nation increases its literacy, the Climate Literacy: Essential Principles of Climate Science document has been endorsed by the 13 Federal agencies that make up the US Global Change Research Program (http://globalchange.gov/resources/educators/climate-literacy) and twenty-four other science and educational institutions. This session will explore the coordinated efforts by the federal agencies and partner organizations to ensure a climate literate society. "Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences: A Guide for Individuals and Communities" produced by the U.S. Global Change Research Program in March 2009

  20. Climate change science compendium 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McMullen, C.P.; Jabbour, J.

    2009-09-15

    In a matter of a few weeks' time, governments will gather in Copenhagen, Denmark, for a crucial UN climate convention meeting. Many governments and stakeholders have requested an annual snapshot of how the science has been evolving since the publication of the IPCC's landmark fourth assessment in advance of the panel's next one in 2014. This Climate Change Science Compendium, based on the wealth of peerreviewed research published by researchers and institutions since 2006, has been compiled by UNEP in response to that request. The findings indicate that ever more rapid environmental change is underway with the pace and the scale of climate change accelerating, along with the confidence among researchers in their forecasts. The Arctic, with implications for the globe, is emerging as an area of major concern. There is growing evidence that the ice there is melting far faster than had been previously supposed. Mountains glaciers also appear to be retreating faster. Scientists now suggest that the Arctic could be virtually ice free in September of 2037 and that a nearly ice-free September by 2028 is well within the realms of possibility. Recent findings also show that significant warming extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsula to cover most of West Antarctica, an area of warming much larger than previously reported. The impact on the Earth's multi-trillion dollar ecosystems is also a key area of concern. Under a high emission scenario-the one that most closely matches current trends-12-39 per cent of the planet's terrestrial surface could experience novel climate conditions and 10-48 per cent could suffer disappearing climates by 2100. Rising levels of aridity are also concentrating scientific minds. New research indicates that by the end of the 21st century the Mediterranean region will also experience much more severe increases in aridity than previously estimated rendering the entire region, but particularly the southern Mediterranean

  1. Tropical deforestation and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ebeling, J.

    2006-08-15

    This dissertation evaluates recent proposals to include tropical deforestation into international climate change mitigation strategies. Deforestation is responsible for up to 25 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. The research aim here is to evaluate implications of a range of policy options for the environmental effectiveness of a prospective agreement, as well as for its political and economic attractiveness for different countries and stakeholders. A literature review, 48 key stakeholder interviews, analyses of submissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), modelling approaches and statistical analyses were carried out to answer these questions. On this basis the study identifies potential deal breakers and explores possible solutions to existing 'real' and perceived obstacles. Findings suggest that, given sufficient political will, an effective agreement between current UNFCCC Parties is feasible and that existing concerns can be addressed in pragmatic ways. Among the different policy alternatives, creating a new carbon trading mechanism under a post-2012 Kyoto regime is likely to deliver greatest economic and environmental benefits. Measuring emission reductions against national-level baselines based on historical base periods would increase the environmental integrity of resulting carbon credits. The study also finds that potential monetary benefits are distributed very unevenly between potential host countries, and that this may partly explain current negotiation positions. Complementary approaches, not based on emission trading, may have to be developed to foster broader support for an agreement. Finally, setting more ambitious emission reduction targets for industrialised countries would overcome concerns about 'flooding' of carbon markets, and would make the most of a unique opportunity to tackle both climate change and deforestation.

  2. Modelling of diurnal cycle under climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eliseev, A.V.; Bezmenov, K.V.; Demchenko, P.F.; Mokhov, I.I.; Petoukhov, V.K. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics

    1995-12-31

    The observed diurnal temperature range (DTR) displays remarkable change during last 30 years. Land air DTR generally decreases under global climate warming due to more significant night minimum temperature increase in comparison with day maximum temperature increase. Atmosphere hydrological cycle characteristics change under global warming and possible background aerosol atmosphere content change may cause essential errors in the estimation of DTR tendencies of change under global warming. The result of this study is the investigation of cloudiness effect on the DTR and blackbody radiative emissivity diurnal range. It is shown that in some cases (particularly in cold seasons) it results in opposite change in DTR and BD at doubled CO{sub 2} atmosphere content. The influence of background aerosol is the same as the cloudiness one

  3. Do pollution and climate influence respiratory tract infections in children?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saulo Duarte Passos

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available To review if pollution and climate changes can influence respiratory tract infections in children. Data source: articles published on the subject in PubMed, SciELO, Bireme, EBSCO and UpTodate were reviewed. The following inclusion criteria were considered: scientific papers between 2002 and 2012, study design, the pediatric population, reference documents such as the CETESB and World Health Organization Summary of the data: We analyzed research that correlated respiratory viruses and climate and/or pollution changes. Respiratory syncytial virus has been the virus related most to changes in climate and humidity. Other "old and new" respiratory viruses such as Human Bocavirus, Metapneumovirus, Parechovirus and Parainfuenza would need to be investigated owing to their clinical importance. Although much has been studied with regard to the relationship between climate change and public health, specific studies about its influence on children's health remain scarce.

  4. Regional climate change mitigation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rowlands, Ian H. [UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment, and Univ. of Waterloo (Canada)

    1998-10-01

    The purpose of this paper is to explore some of the key methodological issues that arise from an analysis of regional climate change mitigation options. The rationale for any analysis of regional mitigation activities, emphasising both the theoretical attractiveness and the existing political encouragement and the methodology that has been developed are reviewed. The differences arising from the fact that mitigation analyses have been taken from the level of the national - where the majority of the work has been completed to date - to the level of the international - that is, the `regional` - will be especially highlighted. (EG)

  5. Renewable energy and climate change

    CERN Document Server

    Quaschning, Volker

    2010-01-01

    This dazzling introductory textbook encompasses the full range of today's important renewable energy technologies. Solar thermal, photovoltaic, wind, hydro, biomass and geothermal energy receive balanced treatment with one exciting and informative chapter devoted to each. As well as a complete overview of these state-of-the-art technologies, the chapters provide: clear analysis on their development potentials; an evaluation of the economic aspects involved; concrete guidance for practical implementation; how to reduce your own energy waste. If we do not act now to stop climate change, the cons.

  6. Virgin's Knight tackles climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banks, Michael

    2008-11-01

    "There is no greater or more immediate challenge than that posed by climate change," said Sir Richard Branson, chairman of the Virgin group, via video-link at the 59th International Astronautical Congress (IAC) held in Glasgow in the UK at the end of September. That grand statement may seem like a lot of hot air for the entrepreneur best known for his attempt to circumnavigate the globe by balloon. But Branson went on to reveal that Virgin Galactic, which aims to fly passengers 100 km into space for 200 000 per trip, will also provide room on its craft for a series of scientific experiments to study the Earth's atmosphere.

  7. A history of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hastrup, Kirsten Blinkenberg

    2017-01-01

    they were first described and became known to outsiders, it is shown how flexibility and mobility were always preconditions for survival in this environment. Then, they were trapped in too much ice, while now they have to negotiate a rapidly melting environment. In both cases their response is deeply......This article presents a small community of High Arctic hunters (the Inughuit in North West Greenland) who have always had to negotiate climatic changes with great impact on their living conditions. This points us toward the natural-social entanglements implied in the notion of the Anthropocene...

  8. Late Quaternary climate change shapes island biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weigelt, Patrick; Steinbauer, Manuel Jonas; Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Kreft, Holger

    2016-04-07

    Island biogeographical models consider islands either as geologically static with biodiversity resulting from ecologically neutral immigration-extinction dynamics, or as geologically dynamic with biodiversity resulting from immigration-speciation-extinction dynamics influenced by changes in island characteristics over millions of years. Present climate and spatial arrangement of islands, however, are rather exceptional compared to most of the Late Quaternary, which is characterized by recurrent cooler and drier glacial periods. These climatic oscillations over short geological timescales strongly affected sea levels and caused massive changes in island area, isolation and connectivity, orders of magnitude faster than the geological processes of island formation, subsidence and erosion considered in island theory. Consequences of these oscillations for present biodiversity remain unassessed. Here we analyse the effects of present and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) island area, isolation, elevation and climate on key components of angiosperm diversity on islands worldwide. We find that post-LGM changes in island characteristics, especially in area, have left a strong imprint on present diversity of endemic species. Specifically, the number and proportion of endemic species today is significantly higher on islands that were larger during the LGM. Native species richness, in turn, is mostly determined by present island characteristics. We conclude that an appreciation of Late Quaternary environmental change is essential to understand patterns of island endemism and its underlying evolutionary dynamics.

  9. India's National Action Plan on Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Pandve, Harshal T.

    2009-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most critical global challenges of our times. Recent events have emphatically demonstrated our growing vulnerability to climate change. Climate change impacts will range from affecting agriculture – further endangering food security – to sea-level rise and the accelerated erosion of coastal zones, increasing intensity of natural disasters, species extinction, and the spread of vector-borne diseases. India released its much-awaited National Action Plan on Climate C...

  10. Climate Change and Corporate Environmental Responsibility

    OpenAIRE

    Dewan Mahboob HOSSAIN; Chowdhury, M. Jahangir Alam

    2012-01-01

    Climate change, as an international environmental issue, is getting a lot of attention. The negative effects of climate change have become one of the most talked about issues among Governments, scientists, environmentalists and others. It is said that business activities are affecting the climate negatively. In order to minimize the negative effects of climate change, the activities of the businesses should be controlled and encouraged to perform in a socially responsible manner. The article ...

  11. The challenges of communicating climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emiliano Feresin

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The climate change issue has become increasingly present in our society in the last decade and central also to communication studies. In the e-book “Communicating Climate Change: Discourses, Mediations and Perceptions”, edited by Anabela Carvalho, various scholars investigate how climate change challenges communication by looking at three main aspects: the discourses of a variety of social actors on climate change; the reconstruction of those discourses in the media; the citizens’ perceptions, understandings and attitudes in relation to climate change.

  12. Challenges and solutions for climate change

    CERN Document Server

    Gaast, Wytze

    2012-01-01

    The latest scientific knowledge on climate change indicates that higher greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere through unchecked emissions will provoke severe climate change and ocean acidification threatening environmental structures on which humanity relies. Climate change therefore poses major socio-economic, technical and environmental challenges which will have serious impacts on countries’ pathways towards sustainable development. As a result, climate change and sustainable development have increasingly become interlinked. A changing climate makes achieving Millennium Development Goals more difficult and expensive, so there is every reason to achieve development goals with low greenhouse gas emissions. This leads to the following five challenges discussed by Challenges and Solutions for Climate Change: To place climate negotiations in the wider context of sustainability, equity and social change so that development benefits can be maximised at the same time as decreasing greenhouse gas emissi...

  13. Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing Countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mertz, Ole; Halsnæs, Kirsten; Olesen, Jørgen E.

    2009-01-01

    Adaptation to climate change is given increasing international attention as the confidence in climate change projections is getting higher. Developing countries have specific needs for adaptation due to high vulnerabilities, and they will in this way carry a great part of the global costs...... of climate change although the rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are mainly the responsibility of industrialized countries. This article provides a status of climate change adaptation in developing countries. An overview of observed and projected climate change is given, and recent literature...... on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation are reviewed, including the emerging focus on mainstreaming of climate change and adaptation in development plans and programs. The article also serves as an introduction to the seven research articles of this special issue on climate change adaptation in developing...

  14. Flowering phenological changes in relation to climate change in Hungary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szabó, Barbara; Vincze, Enikő; Czúcz, Bálint

    2016-09-01

    The importance of long-term plant phenological time series is growing in monitoring of climate change impacts worldwide. To detect trends and assess possible influences of climate in Hungary, we studied flowering phenological records for six species ( Convallaria majalis, Taraxacum officinale, Syringa vulgaris, Sambucus nigra, Robinia pseudoacacia, Tilia cordata) based on phenological observations from the Hungarian Meteorological Service recorded between 1952 and 2000. Altogether, four from the six examined plant species showed significant advancement in flowering onset with an average rate of 1.9-4.4 days per decade. We found that it was the mean temperature of the 2-3 months immediately preceding the mean flowering date, which most prominently influenced its timing. In addition, several species were affected by the late winter (January-March) values of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. We also detected sporadic long-term effects for all species, where climatic variables from earlier months exerted influence with varying sign and little recognizable pattern: the temperature/NAO of the previous autumn (August-December) seems to influence Convallaria, and the temperature/precipitation of the previous spring (February-April) has some effect on Tilia flowering.

  15. Development of a multimedia model (POPsLTEA) to assess the influence of climate change on the fate and transport of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in East Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Jee Hey; Lee, Yunah; Lee, Dong Soo

    2016-11-01

    A dynamic multimedia model (POPsLTEA) for an East Asia region was developed and evaluated to quantitatively assess how climate change (CC) alters the environmental fate and transport dynamics of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in air, water, soil, and sediment. To cover the entire model domain (25°N-50°N and 98°E-148°E) where China, Japan, and South and North Koreas are of primary concern, a total of 5000 main cells of 50km×50km size were used while 1008 cells of a finer spatial resolution (12.5km×12.5km) was nested for South Korea (33°N-38°N and 126°E-132°E). Most of the predicted concentrations agreed with the observed values within one order of magnitude with a tendency of overestimation for air and sediment. Prediction of the atmospheric concentration was statistically significant in both coincidence and association, suggesting the model's potential to successfully predict the fate and transport of the PAHs as influenced by CC. An example study of benzo(a)pyrene demonstrates that direction and strength of the CC influence on the pollution levels vary with the location and environmental media. As compared to the five year period of 2011 to 2015, the changes across the model domain in the annual geometric mean concentration over the years of 2021 through 2100 were predicted to range from 88% to 304%, from 84% to 109%, from 32% to 362%, and from 49% to 303%, in air, soil, surface water, and sea water, respectively, under the scenario of RCP8.5.

  16. [Climate change and Kyoto protocol].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ergasti, G; Pippia, V; Murzilli, G; De Luca D'Alessandro, E

    2009-01-01

    Due to industrial revolution and the heavy use of fossil fuels, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased dramatically during the last hundred years, and this has lead to an increase in mean global temperature. The environmental consequences of this are: the melting of the ice caps, an increase in mean sea-levels, catastrophic events such as floodings, hurricanes and earthquakes, changes to the animal and vegetable kingdoms, a growth in vectors and bacteria in water thus increasing the risk of infectious diseases and damage to agriculture. The toxic effects of the pollution on human health are both acute and chronic. The Kyoto Protocol is an important step in the campaign against climatic changes but it is not sufficient. A possible solution might be for the States which produce the most of pollution to adopt a better political stance for the environment and to use renewable resources for the production of energy.

  17. Contributions of Psychology to Limiting Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Paul C.

    2011-01-01

    Psychology can make a significant contribution to limiting the magnitude of climate change by improving understanding of human behaviors that drive climate change and human reactions to climate-related technologies and policies, and by turning that understanding into effective interventions. This article develops a framework for psychological…

  18. Climate change. Scientific background and process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Seip, Hans Martin; Skodvin, Tora

    1999-07-01

    The paper describes briefly the natural and man-made forces behind climate change and outlines climate variations in the past. It also discusses the future impact of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases, and the background, organisation and functioning of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

  19. Science Teachers' Perspectives about Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Vaille

    2012-01-01

    Climate change and its effects are likely to present challenging problems for future generations of young people. It is important for Australian students to understand the mechanisms and consequences of climate change. If students are to develop a sophisticated understanding, then science teachers need to be well-informed about climate change…

  20. Climate Change Adaptation in the Water Sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ludwig, F.; Kabat, P.; Schaik, van H.; Valk, van der M.

    2009-01-01

    Today’s climate variability already has a large impact on water supply and protection. Millions of people are affected every year by droughts and floods. Future climate change is likely to make things worse. Many people within the water sector are aware that climate change is affecting water resourc

  1. Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Tomé, Margarida; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.

  2. A Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somerville, R. C. J.

    2015-12-01

    A climate change MOOC is a way to reach a global audience of many thousands of students. What was it like to teach climate change to an invisible class over the Internet, and how well did it work? The need to educate many people about climate change seems obvious. Climate change is one of the most important existential issues of our time. Sound science can inform wise policy, and coping successfully with climate change is surely an urgent global challenge that requires scientific input and a scientifically informed public. Today many scientists have opportunities to communicate what science has learned about climate and climate change. Yet being a scientific expert on these subjects does not necessarily mean having the skills to communicate effectively to a broad audience. Like learning to ski or to drive a car skillfully, learning to communicate climate science well takes time and effort. The MOOC format has its own special challenges. Effective communication should always resemble a conversation rather than a monologue, but a conversation can be difficult when the teacher will never see or hear from the great majority of students in the class. In addition, a well-funded and effective professional disinformation campaign has been successful in sowing widespread confusion about climate change. As a result, many people mistakenly think climate change science is unreliable or is controversial within the expert community. One can expect that some of the students taking the MOOC will have been influenced by this sort of erroneous information. Thus, one appealing topic to include in a MOOC on climate change is to give useful guidelines for recognizing and rejecting junk science and disinformation. This talk will describe one climate scientist's first-person participation in teaching a climate change MOOC.

  3. Rethinking climate change as a security threat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoch, Corinne

    2011-10-15

    Once upon a time climate change was a strictly environment and development issue. Today it has become a matter of national and international security. Efforts to link climate change with violent conflict may not be based on solid evidence, but they have certainly captured the attention of governments. They have played a vital role in raising the much-needed awareness of climate change as an issue that deserves global action. But at what cost? Focusing on climate change as a security threat alone risks devolving humanitarian responsibilities to the military, ignoring key challenges and losing sight of those climate-vulnerable communities that stand most in need of protection.

  4. Quantitative approaches in climate change ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brown, Christopher J.; Schoeman, David S.; Sydeman, William J.

    2011-01-01

    climate variability and other drivers of change. To assist the development of reliable statistical approaches, we review the marine climate change literature and provide suggestions for quantitative approaches in climate change ecology. We compiled 267 peer‐reviewed articles that examined relationships...... between climate change and marine ecological variables. Of the articles with time series data (n = 186), 75% used statistics to test for a dependency of ecological variables on climate variables. We identified several common weaknesses in statistical approaches, including marginalizing other important non...

  5. Can Knowledge Deficit Explain Societal Perception of Climate Change Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, R.; McNeal, K.; Bondell, H.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change literacy efforts have had a rough journey in the past decade. Although scientists have become increasingly convinced about anthropological climate change, change in public opinion has been underwhelming. The unexplained gap between scientific consensus and public opinion has made this topic an important research area in the realm of public understanding of science. Recent research on climate change risk perception (CCRP) has advanced an intriguing hypothesis, namely, cultural cognition thesis (CCT), which posits that the public has adequate knowledge to understand climate change science but people tend to use this knowledge solely to promote their culturally motivated view-point of climate change. This talk provides evidence to demonstrate that despite culture playing a significant role in influencing CCRP, knowledge deficiency remains a persistent problem in our society and contributes to the aforementioned gap. However, such deficits can remain undiagnosed due to limitations of survey design.

  6. An Interface between Law and Science: The Climate Change Regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuleshov, Y.; Grandbois, M.; Kaniaha, S.

    2012-04-01

    Law and Science are jointly building the international climate change regime. Up to date, international law and climate science have been unable to take into consideration both regional law and Pacific climate science in this process. Under the International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (the Australian Government Initiative to assist with high priority climate adaptation needs in vulnerable countries in the Asia-Pacific region) significant efforts were dedicated to improve understanding of climate in the Pacific through the Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP) and through the Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program (PASAP). The first comprehensive PCCSP scientific report on the South Pacific climate has been published in 2011. Under the PASAP, web-based information tools for seasonal climate prediction have been developed and now outputs from dynamical climate model are used in 15 countries of the North-West and South Pacific for enhanced prediction of rainfall, air and sea surface temperatures which reduces countries' vulnerability to climate variability in the context of a changing climate. On a regional scale, the Meteorological and Geohazards Department of Vanuatu is preparing a full report on Climate change impacts on the country. These scientific reports and tools could lead to a better understanding of climate change in the South Pacific and to a better understanding of climate change science, for lawyers and policy-makers. The International climate change regime develops itself according to science findings, and at the pace of the four scientific reports issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In return, Law is a contributing factor to climate change, a structural data in the development and perception of environmental issues and it exerts an influence on Science. Because of the dependency of law on science, the PCCSP and PASAP outcomes will also stimulate and orientate developments in law of the Pacific

  7. Pacific Islands Climate Change Virtual Library

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Virtual Library provides access to web based climate variability and climate change information and tools relevant to the Pacific Islands including case studies,...

  8. Climate Change, Health, and Populations of Concern

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page contains communication materials that summarize key points from the U.S. Climate and Health Assessment for eight different populations that are disproportionately affected by climate change impacts.

  9. The human factor: climate change and climate communication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2011-01-01

    Reprint and translation of the article: “Den menneskelige faktor” published in the magazine Klima&Tilpasning Publisher: “Coordination unit for Research in Climate Change Adaptation” (KFT)......Reprint and translation of the article: “Den menneskelige faktor” published in the magazine Klima&Tilpasning Publisher: “Coordination unit for Research in Climate Change Adaptation” (KFT)...

  10. Climate Cases: Learning about Student Conceptualizations of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierney, Benjamin P.

    2013-01-01

    The complex topic of global climate change continues to be a challenging yet important topic among science educators and researchers. This mixed methods study adds to the growing research by investigating student conceptions of climate change from a system theory perspective (Von Bertalanffy, 1968) by asking the question, "How do differences…

  11. Abrupt climate change: can society cope?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hulme, Mike

    2003-09-15

    Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long-term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being

  12. Climate Change Education in Earth System Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänsel, Stephanie; Matschullat, Jörg

    2013-04-01

    The course "Atmospheric Research - Climate Change" is offered to master Earth System Science students within the specialisation "Climate and Environment" at the Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg. This module takes a comprehensive approach to climate sciences, reaching from the natural sciences background of climate change via the social components of the issue to the statistical analysis of changes in climate parameters. The course aims at qualifying the students to structure the physical and chemical basics of the climate system including relevant feedbacks. The students can evaluate relevant drivers of climate variability and change on various temporal and spatial scales and can transform knowledge from climate history to the present and the future. Special focus is given to the assessment of uncertainties related to climate observations and projections as well as the specific challenges of extreme weather and climate events. At the end of the course the students are able to critically reflect and evaluate climate change related results of scientific studies and related issues in media. The course is divided into two parts - "Climate Change" and "Climate Data Analysis" and encompasses two lectures, one seminar and one exercise. The weekly "Climate change" lecture transmits the physical and chemical background for climate variation and change. (Pre)historical, observed and projected climate changes and their effects on various sectors are being introduced and discussed regarding their implications for society, economics, ecology and politics. The related seminar presents and discusses the multiple reasons for controversy in climate change issues, based on various texts. Students train the presentation of scientific content and the discussion of climate change aspects. The biweekly lecture on "Climate data analysis" introduces the most relevant statistical tools and methods in climate science. Starting with checking data quality via tools of exploratory

  13. Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, M.; Miguel, E.

    2014-12-01

    A rapidly growing body of research examines whether human conflict can be affected by climatic changes. Drawing from archaeology, criminology, economics, geography, history, political science, and psychology, we assemble and analyze the most rigorous quantitative studies and document, for the first time, a striking convergence of results. We find strong causal evidence linking climatic events to human conflict across a range of spatial and temporal scales and across all major regions of the world. The magnitude of climate's influence is substantial: for each one standard deviation (1sd) change in climate toward warmer temperatures or more extreme rainfall, median estimates indicate that the frequency of interpersonal violence rises 4% and the frequency of intergroup conflict rises 14%. Because locations throughout the inhabited world are expected to warm 2sd to 4sd by 2050, amplified rates of human conflict could represent a large and critical impact of anthropogenic climate change.

  14. Climate Change in Myanmar: Impacts and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    complex field of study developed from a rather simple idea. Climate, as described by Harun Rashid and Bimal Paul, can be defined as...Harun Rashid and Bimal Paul, Climate Change in Bangladesh: Confronting Impending Disasters (Lanham, MD: Lexington Books, 2014), 3–4. 43 “Climate...El Nino seasons, the warming trend has continued in a positive 44 Rashid and Paul, Climate Change

  15. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kanchan Joshi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has materialized as the leading global environmental concern. Agriculture is one of the zones most critically distressed by climate alteration. As global temperature rises and climate conditions become more erratic posing threat to the vegetation, biodiversity, biological progression and have enduring effect on food security as well as human health. The present review emphasizes multiple consequences of climate change on agricultural productivity.

  16. Economic Consequences Of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szlávik, János; Füle, Miklós

    2009-07-01

    Even though the climate conflict resulting from green houses gases (GHG) emissions was evident by the Nineties and the well-known agreements made, their enforcement is more difficult than that of other environmental agreements. That is because measures to reduce GHG emissions interfere with the heart of the economy and the market: energy (in a broader sense than the energy sector as defined by statistics) and economical growth. Analyzing the environmental policy responses to climate change the conclusion is that GHG emission reduction can only be achieved through intensive environmental policy. While extensive environmental protection complements production horizontally, intensive environmental protection integrates into production and the environment vertically. The latter eliminates the source of the pollution, preventing damage. It utilizes the biochemical processes and self-purification of the natural environment as well as technical development which not only aims to produce state-of-the-art goods, but to make production more environmentally friendly, securing a desired environmental state. While in extensive environmental protection the intervention comes from the outside for creating environmental balance, in intensive environmental protection the system recreates this balance itself. Instead of dealing with the consequences and the polluter pays principle, the emphasis is on prevention. It is important to emphasize that climate strategy decisions have complex effects regarding the aspects of sustainability (economical, social, ecological). Therefore, all decisions are political. At present, and in the near future, market economy decisions have little to do with sustainability values under normal circumstances. Taking social and ecological interests into consideration can only be successful through strategic political aims.

  17. Climate change and nuclear power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schneider, M

    2000-04-01

    The nuclear industry has increased its efforts to have nuclear power plants integrated into the post- Kyoto negotiating process of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) states: ''For many reasons, current and future nuclear energy projects are a superior method of generating emission credits that must be considered as the US expands the use of market- based mechanisms designed around emission credit creation and trading to achieve environmental goals ''. The NEI considers that nuclear energy should be allowed to enter all stages of the Kyoto ''flexibility Mechanisms'': emissions trading, joint implementation and the Clean Development Mechanism. The industry sees the operation of nuclear reactors as emission ''avoidance actions'' and believes that increasing the generation of nuclear power above the 1990 baseline year either through extension and renewal of operating licenses or new nuclear plant should be accepted under the flexibility mechanisms in the same way as wind, solar and hydro power. For the time being, there is no clear definition of the framework conditions for operating the flexibility mechanisms. However, eligible mechanisms must contribute to the ultimate objective of the Climate Convention of preventing ''dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system''. The information presented in the following sections of this report underlines that nuclear power is not a sustainable source of energy, for many reasons. In conclusion, an efficient greenhouse gas abatement strategy will be based on energy efficiency and not on the use of nuclear power. (author)

  18. The Evaluation of Climate Change Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin POPESCU

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, it is acknowledged that climatic changes represent a serious threat for the environment and, so, this problem has been approached at numerous conferences, conventions and summits. The climate is strongly influenced by the changes in the atmospheric concentrations of certain gases that hold the solar radiations on the Earth’s surface (the greenhouse effect. The water vapors and the carbon dioxide (CO2 present in the atmosphere have always generated a natural greenhouse effect, without which the Earth surface would be 33o C lower than it is today. Other greenhouse gases are: methane (CH4, nitrogen protoxide (N2O, and the halogenated compounds such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs. During the last hundred years, man’s activity has led to the increase of the atmospheric concentration of the greenhouse gases and of other pollutants, its consequence being the increase of the average global temperature. Although it has not been calculated exactly how much of this warming can be attributed to the greenhouse gases, there is evidence that human activity contributes to global warming. The main causes leading to the accentuation of the greenhouse effect are the burning of the fossil fuels, deforestations, cement production, waste disposal, refrigeration etc. The climatic changes triggered by the greenhouse gases will have consequences that have already made themselves visible, causing: the increase of the sea level and the possible flooding of the low areas; the melting of the icecap; the modification of the precipitations regime, with consequences like the increase of the floods and droughts frequency; changes in the occurrence of climatic extremes, especially in the occurrence of the high, extreme temperatures. All these will have a direct impact on ecosystems, health, some key economic sectors such as agriculture and on water resources.

  19. Responding to the Consequences of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrand, Peter H.

    2011-01-01

    The talk addresses the scientific consensus concerning climate change, and outlines the many paths that are open to mitigate climate change and its effects on human activities. Diverse aspects of the changing water cycle on Earth are used to illustrate the reality climate change. These include melting snowpack, glaciers, and sea ice; changes in runoff; rising sea level; moving ecosystems, an more. Human forcing of climate change is then explained, including: greenhouse gasses, atmospheric aerosols, and changes in land use. Natural forcing effects are briefly discussed, including volcanoes and changes in the solar cycle. Returning to Earth's water cycle, the effects of climate-induced changes in water resources is presented. Examples include wildfires, floods and droughts, changes in the production and availability of food, and human social reactions to these effects. The lk then passes to a discussion of common human reactions to these forecasts of climate change effects, with a summary of recent research on the subject, plus several recent historical examples of large-scale changes in human behavior that affect the climate and ecosystems. Finally, in the face for needed action on climate, the many options for mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects are presented, with examples of the ability to take affordable, and profitable action at most all levels, from the local, through national.

  20. Responses of alpine biodiversity to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Yang Liu; Jian Zhang; Wanqin Yang

    2009-01-01

    The alpine belt is the temperature-driven treeless region between the timberline and the snowline. Alpine belts are ideal sites for monitoring climate change because species in mountain habitats are especially sensitive to climate change. Global warming is shifting the distribution of alpine biodiversity and is leading to glacial retreat, implying that alterations in alpine biodiversity are indicators of climate change. Therefore, more attention has been given to changes in species compositio...

  1. Operational data of the Star City rainwater harvesting system and its role as a climate change adaptation and a social influence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, M Y; Mun, J S

    2011-01-01

    The Star City rainwater harvesting system (RWHS) was featured in the December, 2008, issue of Water 21. The article highlighted that the RWHS has a 3,000 m3 rainwater tank used in water saving, flood mitigation, and emergency response. Since then, many news media, public officials, and people from both South Korea and abroad have visited the RWHS. In this paper, two years of the system's operational data are presented and its role in short- and long-term climate change adaptation is investigated. The downstream sewer system has become safe for a 50-year rainfall without upgrading the existing sewer system, which was designed for a 10-year period. The 26,000 m3 of water saved has reduced the energy requirement of transferring water from a distant area. The success of the Star City RWHS has influenced 47 cities across South Korea, including Seoul, to enact regulations on rainwater management. It has shown that decentralized rainwater management can supplement the existing centralized system to ensure its safety.

  2. Climate Trends and Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change in Zambia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulenga, Brian P.; Wineman, Ayala; Sitko, Nicholas J.

    2017-02-01

    A number of studies use meteorological records to analyze climate trends and assess the impact of climate change on agricultural yields. While these provide quantitative evidence on climate trends and the likely effects thereof, they incorporate limited qualitative analysis of farmers' perceptions of climate change and/or variability. The present study builds on the quantitative methods used elsewhere to analyze climate trends, and in addition compares local narratives of climate change with evidence found in meteorological records in Zambia. Farmers offer remarkably consistent reports of a rainy season that is growing shorter and less predictable. For some climate parameters—notably, rising average temperature—there is a clear overlap between farmers' observations and patterns found in the meteorological records. However, the data do not support the perception that the rainy season used to begin earlier, and we generally do not detect a reported increase in the frequency of dry spells. Several explanations for these discrepancies are offered. Further, we provide policy recommendations to help farmers adapt to climate change/variability, as well as suggestions to shape future climate change policies, programs, and research in developing countries.

  3. The Climate Change Challenge for Land Professionals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enemark, Stig

    2014-01-01

    monitoring systems and systems for land administration and management should serve as a basis for climate change mitigation and adaptation as well as prevention and management of natural disasters. In facing the climate change challenge the role of land professionals is twofold: • Monitoring change...... such as sea level rise and environmental degradation through global positioning infrastructures and data interpretation and presentation; • Implementing climate change adaptation and mitigation measures into land administration systems and systems for disaster risk management. This paper provides an overall...... understanding of the climate change challenge and looks at land governance as a key means of contributing to climate change adaptation as well disaster risk prevention and management. More specifically the paper looks at identifying the role of land professionals in addressing the climate change challenge...

  4. Climate change characteristics of Amur River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lan-lan YU

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Unusually severe weather is occurring more frequently due to global climate change. Heat waves, rainstorms, snowstorms, and droughts are becoming increasingly common all over the world, threatening human lives and property. Both temperature and precipitation are representative variables usually used to directly reflect and forecast the influences of climate change. In this study, daily data (from 1953 to 1995 and monthly data (from 1950 to 2010 of temperature and precipitation in five regions of the Amur River were examined. The significance of changes in temperature and precipitation was tested using the Mann-Kendall test method. The amplitudes were computed using the linear least-squares regression model, and the extreme temperature and precipitation were analyzed using hydrological statistical methods. The results show the following: the mean annual temperature increased significantly from 1950 to 2010 in the five regions, mainly due to the warming in spring and winter; the annual precipitation changed significantly from 1950 to 2010 only in the lower mainstream of the Amur River; the frequency of extremely low temperature events decreased from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River; the frequency of high temperature events increased from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River; and the frequency of extreme precipitation events did not change significantly from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River. This study provides a valuable theoretical basis for settling disputes between China and Russia on sustainable development and utilization of water resources of the Amur River.

  5. Climate change characteristics of Amur River

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lan-lan YU; Zi-qiang XIA; Jing-ku LI; Tao CAI

    2013-01-01

    Unusually severe weather is occurring more frequently due to global climate change. Heat waves, rainstorms, snowstorms, and droughts are becoming increasingly common all over the world, threatening human lives and property. Both temperature and precipitation are representative variables usually used to directly reflect and forecast the influences of climate change. In this study, daily data (from 1953 to 1995) and monthly data (from 1950 to 2010) of temperature and precipitation in five regions of the Amur River were examined. The significance of changes in temperature and precipitation was tested using the Mann-Kendall test method. The amplitudes were computed using the linear least-squares regression model, and the extreme temperature and precipitation were analyzed using hydrological statistical methods. The results show the following:the mean annual temperature increased significantly from 1950 to 2010 in the five regions, mainly due to the warming in spring and winter;the annual precipitation changed significantly from 1950 to 2010 only in the lower mainstream of the Amur River;the frequency of extremely low temperature events decreased from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River;the frequency of high temperature events increased from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River; and the frequency of extreme precipitation events did not change significantly from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River. This study provides a valuable theoretical basis for settling disputes between China and Russia on sustainable development and utilization of water resources of the Amur River.

  6. Abrupt climate change:Debate or action

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHENG Hai

    2004-01-01

    Global abrupt climate changes have been documented by various climate records, including ice cores,ocean sediment cores, lake sediment cores, cave deposits,loess deposits and pollen records. The climate system prefers to be in one of two stable states, i.e. interstadial or stadial conditions, but not in between. The transition between two states has an abrupt character. Abrupt climate changes are,in general, synchronous in the northern hemisphere and tropical regions. The timescale for abrupt climate changes can be as short as a decade. As the impacts may be potentially serious, we need to take actions such as reducing CO2emissions to the atmosphere.

  7. Biodiversity, climate change and poverty: exploring the links

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reid, Hannah; Swiderska, Krystyna

    2008-02-15

    Biodiversity — the variety of all life, from genes and species to ecosystems — is intimately linked to Earth's climate and, inevitably, to climate change. Biodiversity and poverty are also inextricably connected. For instance, changes to natural ecosystems influence both climate change and people's ability to cope with some of its damaging impacts. And in their turn climate change, as well as people's responses to it, affect biodiversity. Unpicking all these strands clearly shows that conserving and managing biodiversity can help natural systems and vulnerable people cope with a shifting global climate. Yet compared to activities such as forest conservation and afforestation — widely noted as a way of sequestering carbon and cutting greenhouse gas emissions — biodiversity conservation is a neglected area. That must change: urgent support is needed for local solutions to biodiversity loss that provide benefits on all counts.

  8. The Role of Natural Resource Professionals in Addressing Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shorna B. Allred

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Natural resource professionals, ranging from forest managers and educators to floodplain managers, play a critical role in implementing and conducting outreach with regards to climate mitigation and adaptation appropriate to local and regional scales. Natural resource professionals can also pave the way by adopting actions that serve as demonstrations of efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions or adapt natural systems for the future. A web survey of 1488 natural resource professionals across New York State (NYS was conducted to assess their attitudes toward climate change, views toward climate change mitigation and adaptation priorities, actions taken to address climate change, and barriers faced as they relate to their professional responsibilities. The majority of natural resource professionals believe that climate change is happening, but there was slightly less agreement about human causes of climate change. Most natural resource professionals (69% see evidence of how climate change is impacting natural resources in NYS, but few (17% believed that there was sufficient information about how to address climate impacts at the local level. Nearly 60% of natural resources professionals undertook climate mitigation or adaptation actions in their work. Prominent influencing factors for action were proactive leadership and local impacts. Barriers to taking action on climate change were a lack of human and financial resources, the nature of costs relative to benefits, and lack of perceived threat. As managers and educators responsible for local water, land, and wildlife resources, natural resource professionals witness changes resulting from climate change first-hand. This paper will be useful to decision-makers at state and federal government levels regarding policies, incentives, and guidance that can be created with the goal of promoting a sound natural resource strategy in support of climate change readiness.

  9. Wealth reallocation and sustainability under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenichel, Eli P.; Levin, Simon A.; McCay, Bonnie; St. Martin, Kevin; Abbott, Joshua K.; Pinsky, Malin L.

    2016-03-01

    Climate change is often described as the greatest environmental challenge of our time. In addition, a changing climate can reallocate natural capital, change the value of all forms of capital and lead to mass redistribution of wealth. Here we explain how the inclusive wealth framework provides a means to measure shifts in the amounts and distribution of wealth induced by climate change. Biophysical effects on prices, pre-existing institutions and socio-ecological changes related to shifts in climate cause wealth to change in ways not correlated with biophysical changes. This implies that sustainable development in the face of climate change requires a coherent approach that integrates biophysical and social measurement. Inclusive wealth provides a measure that indicates sustainability and has the added benefit of providing an organizational framework for integrating the multiple disciplines studying global change.

  10. Climate change threatens European conservation areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Miguel B; Alagador, Diogo; Cabeza, Mar; Nogués-Bravo, David; Thuiller, Wilfried

    2011-01-01

    Europe has the world's most extensive network of conservation areas. Conservation areas are selected without taking into account the effects of climate change. How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change? We assess the effectiveness of protected areas and the Natura 2000 network in conserving a large proportion of European plant and terrestrial vertebrate species under climate change. We found that by 2080, 58 ± 2.6% of the species would lose suitable climate in protected areas, whereas losses affected 63 ± 2.1% of the species of European concern occurring in Natura 2000 areas. Protected areas are expected to retain climatic suitability for species better than unprotected areas (P<0.001), but Natura 2000 areas retain climate suitability for species no better and sometimes less effectively than unprotected areas. The risk is high that ongoing efforts to conserve Europe's biodiversity are jeopardized by climate change. New policies are required to avert this risk. PMID:21447141

  11. India's National Action Plan on Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandve, Harshal T

    2009-04-01

    Climate change is one of the most critical global challenges of our times. Recent events have emphatically demonstrated our growing vulnerability to climate change. Climate change impacts will range from affecting agriculture - further endangering food security - to sea-level rise and the accelerated erosion of coastal zones, increasing intensity of natural disasters, species extinction, and the spread of vector-borne diseases. India released its much-awaited National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) to mitigate and adapt to climate change on June 30, 2008, almost a year after it was announced. The NAPCC runs through 2017 and directs ministries to submit detailed implementation plans to the Prime Minister's Council on Climate Change by December 2008. This article briefly reviews the plan and opinion about it from different experts and organizations.

  12. Climate Change and the Social Factor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Lars Kjerulf; Jensen, Anne; Nielsen, Signe Svalgaard

    risks and concerns of everyday life? The project found that the distinction between climate change mitigation and adaptation is of little significance for lay people. The prospect of climate change does provoke reflections on social values and the need for saving energy, but when it comes to protecting......This poster reports from a explorative study about social aspects of climate change adaptation in Denmark. The aim of the project was to explore how people perceive and relate to climate change adaptation, what risks are associated with climate change and how are those risks balanced with other...... ones own life and property against future damaging effects of climate change the threat seems distant and other forms of home improvement seem more relevant. People have a high level of trust in socio-technical systems and feel that adaptation measures primarily should be taken by the authorities....

  13. Climate Change, Health, and Communication: A Primer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadwick, Amy E

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most serious and pervasive challenges facing us today. Our changing climate has implications not only for the ecosystems upon which we depend, but also for human health. Health communication scholars are well-positioned to aid in the mitigation of and response to climate change and its health effects. To help theorists, researchers, and practitioners engage in these efforts, this primer explains relevant issues and vocabulary associated with climate change and its impacts on health. First, this primer provides an overview of climate change, its causes and consequences, and its impacts on health. Then, the primer describes ways to decrease impacts and identifies roles for health communication scholars in efforts to address climate change and its health effects.

  14. Global climate change and international security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  15. Urban Vulnerability and Climate Change in Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Gertrud

    Urbanisation and climate change are among the major challenges for sustainable development in Africa. The overall aim of this book is to present innovative approaches to vulnerability analysis and for enhancing the resilience of African cities against climate change-induced risks. Locally adapted...... IPCC climate change scenarios, which also consider possible changes in urban population, have been developed. Innovative strategies to land use and spatial planning are proposed that seek synergies between the adaptation to climate change and the need to solve social problems. Furthermore, the book...... explores the role of governance in successfully coping with climate-induced risks in urban areas. The book is unique in that it combines: a top-down perspective of climate change modeling with a bottom-up perspective of vulnerability assessment; quantitative approaches from engineering sciences...

  16. Climate variability and climate change in Mexico: A review

    OpenAIRE

    Jáuregui, E.

    1997-01-01

    A review of research on climate variability, fluctuations and climate change in Mexico is presented. Earlier approaches include different time scales from paleoclimatic to historical and instrumental. The nature and causes of variability in Mexico have been attributed to large-scale southward/northward shifts of the mid-latitude major circulation and more recently to the ENSO cycle. Global greenhouse warming has become a major environmental issue and has spawned a large number of climate-chan...

  17. The Research Development About Influence of Climatic Change on Wheat Production%气候变化对小麦生产影响研究进展

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    商兆堂; 姜东; 何浪

    2013-01-01

    It was briefed on the mainly way at home and abroad for be to research climate change and to evaluate the affect on wheat production by climate change. The analysis showed research on climate change and the affect on wheat production that around the main line of the climate warming outspreads. The reporter raised the main research technology way that produces future climate situation by the climate change facts trend extrapolation and climate patterns, the situation of winter wheat production was simulated on the future climate scenarios, with the mechanism or statistical model of the relationship on the winter wheat growth and meteorological conditions. Analysis on mainly differences of the winter wheat production situation and the trend of the main meteorological elements change about occurrence’s causes in present normal climate conditions and the future climate scenarios. It was gotten a mainly technology measures that study on technology action about dealing with climate change by the direction on precise cultivation, to put forward management measures for preventing climate change risk, in order to ensure the safety of winter wheat production to provide decision basis.%  简述了国内外研究气候变化和评估气象变化对小麦生产影响的主要技术方法。分析表明,气候变化及其对冬小麦生产影响研究,主要是围绕气候变暖这条主线进行的。提出评估气候变化影响的主要研究技术途径是通过气候变化事实趋势外推和气候模式产生未来气候情景,通过冬小麦生长发育与气象条件关系的机理或统计模型,模拟未来气候情景下冬小麦生产状况。分析未来气候情景下与现在正常气候状况下,冬小麦生产状况的主要差异及其引起这种差异的主要气象要素的变化趋势。得出应对气候变化的主要措施是从精确栽培的角度研究冬小麦生产应对气候变化的技术措施,提出防范气候变化风险

  18. Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Workshop summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhatti, N.; Cirillo, R.R. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Dixon, R.K. [U.S. Country Studies Program, Washington, DC (United States)] [and others

    1995-12-31

    Representatives from fifteen countries met in Prague, Czech Republic, on September 11-15, 1995, to share results from the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change. The workshop focused on the issues of global climate change and its impacts on various sectors of a national economy. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which has been signed by more than 150 governments worldwide, calls on signatory parties to develop and communicate measures they are implementing to respond to global climate change. An analysis of a country`s vulnerability to changes in the climate helps it identify suitable adaptation measures. These analyses are designed to determine the extent of the impacts of global climate change on sensitive sectors such as agricultural crops, forests, grasslands and livestock, water resources, and coastal areas. Once it is determined how vulnerable a country may be to climate change, it is possible to identify adaptation measures for ameliorating some or all of the effects.The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: Provide an opportunity for countries to describe their study results; Encourage countries to learn from the experience of the more complete assessments and adjust their studies accordingly; Identify issues and analyses that require further investigation; and Summarize results and experiences for governmental and intergovernmental organizations.

  19. Coastal Risk Management in a Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Existing coastal management and defense approaches are not well suited to meet the challenges of climate change and related uncertanities. Professionals in this field need a more dynamic, systematic and multidisciplinary approach. Written by an international group of experts, "Coastal Risk...... Management in a Changing Climate" provides innovative, multidisciplinary best practices for mitigating the effects of climate change on coastal structures. Based on the Theseus program, the book includes eight study sites across Europe, with specific attention to the most vulnerable coastal environments...

  20. Global Climate Change: Threat Multiplier for AFRICOM?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-11-06

    Vaclav Klaus , President of the Czech Republic, as quoted in Notes for the speech of the President of the Czech Republic at the UN Climate Change...63 Vaclav Klaus , UN Climate Change Conference, 2. 64 Ibid., 1. 65 Aaron T. Wolf, and Annika Kramer, and Alexander...2007). Klaus , Vaclav , President of the Czech Republic. Notes for the Speech of the President of the Czech Republic at the UN Climate Change

  1. Using Web GIS "Climate" for Adaptation to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordova, Yulia; Martynova, Yulia; Shulgina, Tamara

    2015-04-01

    A work is devoted to the application of an information-computational Web GIS "Climate" developed by joint team of the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS and Tomsk State University to raise awareness about current and future climate change as a basis for further adaptation. Web-GIS "Climate» (http://climate.scert.ru/) based on modern concepts of Web 2.0 provides opportunities to study regional climate change and its consequences by providing access to climate and weather models, a large set of geophysical data and means of processing and visualization. Also, the system is used for the joint development of software applications by distributed research teams, research based on these applications and undergraduate and graduate students training. In addition, the system capabilities allow creating information resources to raise public awareness about climate change, its causes and consequences, which is a necessary step for the subsequent adaptation to these changes. Basic information course on climate change is placed in the public domain and is aimed at local population. Basic concepts and problems of modern climate change and its possible consequences are set out and illustrated in accessible language. Particular attention is paid to regional climate changes. In addition to the information part, the course also includes a selection of links to popular science network resources on current issues in Earth Sciences and a number of practical tasks to consolidate the material. These tasks are performed for a particular territory. Within the tasks users need to analyze the prepared within the "Climate" map layers and answer questions of direct interest to the public: "How did the minimum value of winter temperatures change in your area?", "What are the dynamics of maximum summer temperatures?", etc. Carrying out the analysis of the dynamics of climate change contributes to a better understanding of climate processes and further adaptation

  2. Diagnosing Drought in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swann, A. L. S.; Hoffman, F. M.; Koven, C. D.; Randerson, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    Predictions of future climate impacts such as drought rely heavily on metrics based on changes in rainfall and changes in the demand for water from the atmosphere. However, the underlying driver of climate change is the increasing concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), which simultaneously increases temperature globally and modifies the water needs of plants. Although the influence of CO2 on plant stomatal conductance and transpiration is well established, the relative impact of this physiology on different drought metrics has not been rigorously assessed. We find that predictions of increasing drought stress derived using atmospheric demand metrics in many regions (including potential evapotraspiration and Palmer Drought Stress Index) correspond to places where Earth system models show stable or increasing water availability on land when assessed using the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration. Approximately 70% of the increase in global water availability is a direct result of the effect of CO2 reducing plant water needs. Current models predict a decoupling of water flux and carbon flux, which require revisions to how aridity is measured and drought is calculated under changing CO2.

  3. Fostering Hope in Climate Change Educators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swim, Janet K.; Fraser, John

    2013-01-01

    Climate Change is a complex set of issues with large social and ecological risks. Addressing it requires an attentive and climate literate population capable of making informed decisions. Informal science educators are well-positioned to teach climate science and motivate engagement, but many have resisted the topic because of self-doubt about…

  4. The influence of global climate change on the environmental fate of persistent organic pollutants: A review with emphasis on the Northern Hemisphere and the Arctic as a receptor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jianmin; Hung, Hayley; Macdonald, Robie W.

    2016-11-01

    Following worldwide bans and restrictions on the use of many persistent organic pollutants (POPs) from the late 1970s, their regional and global distributions have become governed increasingly by phase partitioning between environmental reservoirs, such as air, water, soil, vegetation and ice, where POPs accumulated during the original applications. Presently, further transport occurs within the atmospheric and aquatic reservoirs. Increasing temperatures provide thermodynamic forcing to drive these chemicals out of reservoirs, like soil, vegetation, water and ice, and into the atmosphere where they can be transported rapidly by winds and then recycled among environmental media to reach locations where lower temperatures prevail (e.g., polar regions and high elevations). Global climate change, widely considered as global warming, is also manifested by changes in hydrological systems and in the cryosphere; with the latter now exhibiting widespread loss of ice cover on the Arctic Ocean and thawing of permafrost. All of these changes alter the cycling and fate of POPs. There is abundant evidence from observations and modeling showing that climate variation has an effect on POPs levels in biotic and abiotic environments. This article reviews recent progress in research on the effects of climate change on POPs with the intention of promoting awareness of the importance of interactions between climate and POPs in the geophysical and ecological systems.

  5. Gender angle to the climate change negotiations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wamukonya, Njeri; Skutsch, Margaret

    2002-01-01

    The South is likely to suffer more from climate change than the North due to its already vulnerable situation and lack of the necessary resources to adapt to change. But do the interests of men and of women differ as regards climate change and does this have a South-North dimension? This paper attem

  6. How will climate change modify river flow regimes in Europe?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Schneider

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Worldwide, flow regimes are being modified by various anthropogenic impacts and climate change induces an additional risk. Rising evapotranspiration rates, declining snow cover and changing precipitation patterns will interact differently at different locations. Consequently, in distinct climate zones, unequal consequences can be expected in matters of water stress, flood risk, water quality, and food security. In particular, river ecosystems and their vital ecosystem services will be compromised as their species richness and composition have evolved over long time under natural flow conditions. This study aims at evaluating the exclusive impacts of climate change on river flow regimes in Europe. Various flow characteristics are taken into consideration and diverse dynamics are identified for each distinct climate zone in Europe. In order to simulate natural and modified flow regimes, the global hydrology model WaterGAP3 is applied. All calculations for current and future conditions (2050s are carried out on a 5' × 5' European grid. To address uncertainty, climate forcing data of three different global climate models are used to drive WaterGAP3. Finally, the hydrological alterations of different flow characteristics are quantified by the Indicators of Hydrological Alteration approach. Results of our analysis indicate that on European scale, climate change can be expected to modify flow regimes significantly. This is especially the case in the Mediterranean climate zone (due to drier conditions with reduced precipitation across the year and in the continental climate zone (due to reduced snowmelt and drier summers. Regarding single flow characteristics, strongest impacts on timing were found for the boreal climate zone. This applies for both, high and low flows. While low flow magnitudes are likely to be stronger influenced in the Mediterranean climate, high flow magnitudes will be mainly altered in snow climates with warmer summers. At the end

  7. Incorporating Student Activities into Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, H.; Kelly, K.; Klein, D.; Cadavid, A. C.

    2013-12-01

    Under a NASA grant, Mathematical and Geospatial Pathways to Climate Change Education, students at California State University, Northridge integrated Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, satellite data technologies, and climate modelling into the study of global climate change under a Pathway for studying the Mathematics of Climate Change (PMCC). The PMCC, which is an interdisciplinary option within the BS in Applied Mathematical Sciences, consists of courses offered by the departments of Mathematics, Physics, and Geography and is designed to prepare students for careers and Ph.D. programs in technical fields relevant to global climate change. Under this option students are exposed to the science, mathematics, and applications of climate change science through a variety of methods including hands-on experience with computer modeling and image processing software. In the Geography component of the program, ESRI's ArcGIS and ERDAS Imagine mapping, spatial analysis and image processing software were used to explore NASA satellite data to examine the earth's atmosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere in areas that are affected by climate change or affect climate. These technology tools were incorporated into climate change and remote sensing courses to enhance students' knowledge and understanding of climate change through hands-on application of image processing techniques to NASA data. Several sets of exercises were developed with specific learning objectives in mind. These were (1) to increase student understanding of climate change and climate change processes; (2) to develop student skills in understanding, downloading and processing satellite data; (3) to teach remote sensing technology and GIS through applications to climate change; (4) to expose students to climate data and methods they can apply to solve real world problems and incorporate in future research projects. In the Math and Physics components of the course, students learned about

  8. Global change and marine communities: Alien species and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Occhipinti-Ambrogi, Anna [DET - Dip. di Ecologia del Territorio, Sezione di Ecologia, Universita degli Studi di Pavia, Via S. Epifanio 14, I-27100 Pavia (Italy)]. E-mail: occhipin@unipv.it

    2007-07-01

    Anthropogenic influences on the biosphere since the advent of the industrial age are increasingly causing global changes. Climatic change and the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are ranking high in scientific and public agendas, and other components of global change are also frequently addressed, among which are the introductions of non indigenous species (NIS) in biogeographic regions well separated from the donor region, often followed by spectacular invasions. In the marine environment, both climatic change and spread of alien species have been studied extensively; this review is aimed at examining the main responses of ecosystems to climatic change, taking into account the increasing importance of biological invasions. Some general principles on NIS introductions in the marine environment are recalled, such as the importance of propagule pressure and of development stages during the time course of an invasion. Climatic change is known to affect many ecological properties; it interacts also with NIS in many possible ways. Direct (proximate) effects on individuals and populations of altered physical-chemical conditions are distinguished from indirect effects on emergent properties (species distribution, diversity, and production). Climatically driven changes may affect both local dispersal mechanisms, due to the alteration of current patterns, and competitive interactions between NIS and native species, due to the onset of new thermal optima and/or different carbonate chemistry. As well as latitudinal range expansions of species correlated with changing temperature conditions, and effects on species richness and the correlated extinction of native species, some invasions may provoke multiple effects which involve overall ecosystem functioning (material flow between trophic groups, primary production, relative extent of organic material decomposition, extent of benthic-pelagic coupling). Some examples are given, including a special

  9. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asseng, A; Ewert, F; Rosenzweig, C

    2013-01-01

    of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models...... than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi......Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic...

  10. When climate science became climate politics: British media representations of climate change in 1988.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaspal, Rusi; Nerlich, Brigitte

    2014-02-01

    Climate change has become a pressing environmental concern for scientists, social commentators and politicians. Previous social science research has explored media representations of climate change in various temporal and geographical contexts. Through the lens of Social Representations Theory, this article provides a detailed qualitative thematic analysis of media representations of climate change in the 1988 British broadsheet press, given that this year constitutes an important juncture in this transition of climate change from the domain of science to that of the socio-political sphere. The following themes are outlined: (i) "Climate change: a multi-faceted threat"; (ii) "Collectivisation of threat"; (iii) "Climate change and the attribution of blame"; and (iv) "Speculative solutions to a complex socio-environmental problem." The article provides detailed empirical insights into the "starting-point" for present-day disputes concerning climate change and lays the theoretical foundations for tracking the continuities and discontinuities characterising social representations of climate change in the future.

  11. 新泰市气候变化及其对种植业的影响%Climate Change and Its Influence on Crop Farming in Xintai City

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王玉河; 王承军

    2011-01-01

    temperature increased, and the frost-free period prolonged, the sowing date and fanning system of main crops in Xintai City changed. The rising of winter temperature was favorable for the development of industrialized agriculture, such as the warm house booth. The multiple-cropping index was improved, and the characteristic planting superior was prominent. The climate warming made that the planting areas of yellow ginger and day lily enlarged, and the planting boundary moved northward. The sowing dates of wheat and peanut were postponed- The sowing date of yellow ginger was advanced, and the growth period was prolonged. Meanwhile, the climate variation also made that the plant diseases and insect pests, spring frost damage aggravated in Xintai. The influence of extreme weather which was induced by the increasing of extreme climate event on the yield and quality of fruit tree was stronger. The planting risks of yellow ginger and day lily increased. [ Conclusion] The research provided the scientific basis for promoting the sustainable development of economic society in Xintai.

  12. Behaviour and climate change : consumer perceptions of responsibility.

    OpenAIRE

    Wells, V.K.; Ponting, C.A.; Peattoe, K.

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores the under-researched notion of consumer responsibility, a potentially significant influence on consumer behaviour that marketers and policymakers may be able to harness as they attempt to respond to environmental challenges such as climate change. The paper uses data derived from a commercially motivated survey (n = 1513) to explore domestic consumption behaviours most closely associated with the issue of disruptive climate change. A measure of 'General Environmental Respo...

  13. Climate change and shareholder value

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-03-16

    During 2005, the Carbon Trust worked with Cairneagle Associates to develop a methodology for analysing shareholder value at risk from climate change. The model developed offers a robust, replicable, top-down approach to analysing such value at risk. In addition to a company's own energy linked ('direct' and electricity linked 'indirect') carbon emissions, it looks further along the value chain and considers broader potential risk. In calculating the financial impact, the analysis quantifies the potential impact on profits, using the shape of the business in 2004, but applying a potential 2013 emissions regulatory regime. 2013 was chosen as the first year after the end of the 2008-2012 Kyoto compliance period (which also equates to Phase Two in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme). A major uncertainty is to what extent countries not currently regulated by the Kyoto Protocol (particularly the USA, India and China) will be brought into committed emission reduction targets from 2013. 2013 therefore represents the earliest year under this uncertain, but likely tougher, regulatory regime. However, although this report focuses on 2013, it needs to be recognised that, for many sectors, financial impacts will be seen significantly before this time. Ten 'case study companies' have been studied, from a range of sectors. In some cases, the 'case study company' analysed is strictly linked to a single company within that sector. In others, just a single corporate division has been reviewed, and in others yet again, characteristics from several companies have been combined to produce a more representative example. In order to enable analysis on a strictly like-for-like basis, the research has been based entirely upon public sources of information. This analysis illustrates what a determined shareholder (or other onlooker) could derive about value at risk from climate change, based upon what companies disclose today. A summary of the

  14. Forced migrations caused by climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neven Tandarić

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The consequences of climate change are becoming more and more pronounced, causing various environmental and social changes. One of the major and globally most noticeable changes is the intensification of forced migration caused by climate change. Such forced migrants, due to international legislation that has no built-in criteria to regulate the status of refugees due to environmental reasons and also climate change, cannot achieve this status and are becoming a problem of the entire international community, leading to significant social, economic, political and cultural changes at a global scale.

  15. Climate change and tropical marine agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crabbe, M James C

    2009-01-01

    The coral reef ecosystem forms part of a 'seascape' that includes land-based ecosystems such as mangroves and forests, and ideally should form a complete system for conservation and management. Aquaculture, including artisanal fishing for fish and invertebrates, shrimp farming, and seaweed farming, is a major part of the farming and gleaning practices of many tropical communities, particularly on small islands, and depends upon the integrity of the reefs. Climate change is making major impacts on these communities, not least through global warming and high CO(2) concentrations. Corals grow within very narrow limits of temperature, provide livelihoods for millions of people in tropical areas, and are under serious threat from a variety of environmental and climate extremes. Corals survive and grow through a symbiotic relationship with photosynthetic algae: zooxanthellae. Such systems apply highly co-operative regulation to minimize the fluctuation of metabolite concentration profiles in the face of transient perturbations. This review will discuss research on how climate influences reef ecosystems, and how science can lead to conservation actions, with benefits for the human populations reliant on the reefs for their survival.

  16. Assessing urban adaptive capacity to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araya-Muñoz, Dahyann; Metzger, Marc J; Stuart, Neil; Wilson, A Meriwether W; Alvarez, Luis

    2016-12-01

    Despite the growing number of studies focusing on urban vulnerability to climate change, adaptive capacity, which is a key component of the IPCC definition of vulnerability, is rarely assessed quantitatively. We examine the capacity of adaptation in the Concepción Metropolitan Area, Chile. A flexible methodology based on spatial fuzzy modelling was developed to standardise and aggregate, through a stepwise approach, seventeen indicators derived from widely available census statistical data into an adaptive capacity index. The results indicate that all the municipalities in the CMA increased their level of adaptive capacity between 1992 and 2002. However, the relative differences between municipalities did not change significantly over the studied timeframe. Fuzzy overlay allowed us to standardise and to effectively aggregate indicators with differing ranges and granularities of attribute values into an overall index. It also provided a conceptually sound and reproducible means of exploring the interplay of many indicators that individually influence adaptive capacity. Furthermore, it captured the complex, aggregated and continued nature of the adaptive capacity, favouring to deal with gaps of data and knowledge associated with the concept of adaptive capacity. The resulting maps can help identify municipalities where adaptive capacity is weak and identify which components of adaptive capacity need strengthening. Identification of these capacity conditions can stimulate dialogue amongst policymakers and stakeholders regarding how to manage urban areas and how to prioritise resources for urban development in ways that can also improve adaptive capacity and thus reduce vulnerability to climate change.

  17. Undocumented migration in response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nawrotzki, Raphael J; Riosmena, Fernando; Hunter, Lori M; Runfola, Daniel M

    In the face of climate change induced economic uncertainty, households may employ migration as an adaptation strategy to diversify their livelihood portfolio through remittances. However, it is unclear whether such climate migration will be documented or undocumented. In this study we combine detailed migration histories with daily temperature and precipitation information for 214 weather stations to investigate whether climate change more strongly impacts undocumented or documented migration from 68 rural Mexican municipalities to the U.S. during the years 1986-1999. We employ two measures of climate change, the warm spell duration index (WSDI) and the precipitation during extremely wet days (R99PTOT). Results from multi-level event-history models demonstrate that climate-related international migration from rural Mexico was predominantly undocumented. We conclude that programs to facilitate climate change adaptation in rural Mexico may be more effective in reducing undocumented border crossings than increased border fortification.

  18. Exposure to climate and climate change in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Monterroso

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available An index with the potential to integrate different climate hazards into a single parameter is required to guide preventive decision making. We integrated in a single index the degree of exposure to climate that the nation's municipalities have. We selected this spatial scale because the municipality is the basic unit of administrative and economic planning; consequently, this is the scale at which policies of adaptation to climate change must be fostered. We conceptualized exposure as the sum of historic extreme events, the degree of ecosystem conservation and current climate and its future scenarios. This approach allowed us to create a climate hazard exposure index at the municipality scale integrating past and present. Maps of this index can be constructed to serve as a medium of risk communication and to aid policy design. We used information from eighteen variables to statistically standardize and compute the hazard exposure index by applying empirical formulae. We found that actually, out of ten Mexicans, three live in flood-prone zones, three may suffer the passage of tropical cyclones, five reside in drought zones and two live in extreme drought regions. Additionally, hailstorms affect five out of ten Mexicans, while eight out of ten are affected by frosts. Incorporating climate change, in the future more municipalities and a higher population will live in high exposure. Because understanding exposure is a necessary prerequisite to understanding vulnerability, knowledge of the spatial distribution of exposure should be useful for reducing the identified climate hazard exposure and vulnerability to climate change.

  19. Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuur, E.A.G.; McGuire, Anthony; Schädel, C.; Grosse, G.; Harden, J.W.; Hayes, D.J.; Hugelius, G.; Koven, C.D.; Kuhry, P.; Lawrence, D.M.; Natali, Susan M.; Olefeldt, David; Romanovsky, V.E.; Schaefer, K.; Turetsky, M.R.; Treat, C.C.; Vonk, J.E.

    2015-01-01

    Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.

  20. EU Climate Change Exhibition Held

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    <正>On April 25, the CPAFFC, the China-EU Association (CEUA) and the Delegation of the European Commission to China jointly held the opening ceremony for the EU Exhibition on Climate Change in the CPAFFC. He Luli, former vice chairperson of the NPC Standing Committee and honorary president of the CEUA, Jose Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, and Li Jianping, vice president of the CPAFFC, attended the opening ceremony and made speeches. Honorary President He Luli highly praised the achievements made by China and the EU in their longtime cooperation of mutual benefits in various fields including environmental protection. She said, for many years China and EU have both committed to the development of all-round strategic partnership and establishment of a multi-level mechanism of political dialogue. She expressed, with increasing enthusiasm the CEUA would continue to actively carry out nongovernmental exchanges between China and the EU, and promote cooperation between the two sides in the fields of economy, society, environmental protection, science and technology, culture, etc.

  1. Climate Change: Science and Policy Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-01-25

    species may become extinct , while others are likely to flourish. The local effects of climate change may contribute more to decision-making than national...in some climate model projections is the possibility of dieback of the Amazon rainforest , resulting in a self-reinforcing cycle of greater drying and...ecologists expect high rates of extinctions and loss of biological diversity if climate change projections are accurate. CRS-37 94 Tol, R.S.J., “New

  2. Undocumented migration in response to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Nawrotzki, Raphael J.; Riosmena, Fernando; HUNTER, LORI M.; Runfola, Daniel M.

    2015-01-01

    In the face of climate change induced economic uncertainty, households may employ migration as an adaptation strategy to diversify their livelihood portfolio through remittances. However, it is unclear whether such climate migration will be documented or undocumented. In this study we combine detailed migration histories with daily temperature and precipitation information for 214 weather stations to investigate whether climate change more strongly impacts undocumented or documented migration...

  3. Global climate change and US agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Richard M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Peart, Robert M.; Ritchie, Joe T.; Mccarl, Bruce A.

    1990-01-01

    Agricultural productivity is expected to be sensitive to global climate change. Models from atmospheric science, plant science, and agricultural economics are linked to explore this sensitivity. Although the results depend on the severity of climate change and the compensating effects of carbon dioxide on crop yields, the simulation suggests that irrigated acreage will expand and regional patterns of U.S. agriculture will shift. The impact of the U.S. economy strongly depends on which climate model is used.

  4. Study on climate change in Southwestern China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Zongxing

    2015-03-01

    Nominated by Chinese Academy of Sciences as an outstanding Ph.D. thesis. Offers a needed exploration of the temporal and spatial pattern of climate change in southwestern China. Explores the action mechanism among the large-scale atmospheric circulation system, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. Analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change from the aspects of morphology of the glacier, glacial mass balance and the process of hydrology. This thesis confirms many changes, including sharp temperature rise, interannual variability of precipitation, extreme climate events and significant decreases of sunshine duration and wind speed in southwestern China, and systemically explores the action mechanism between large-scale atmospheric circulation systems, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. This study also analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change so that on the one hand it clearly reflects the relationship between glacier morphologic changes and climate change; on the other, it reveals the mechanism of action of climate warming as a balance between energy and matter. The achievements of this study reflect a significant contribution to the body of research on the response of climate in cold regions, glaciers and human activities to a global change against the background of the typical monsoon climate, and have provided scientific basis for predictions, countermeasures against disasters from extreme weather, utilization of water and the establishment of counterplans to slow and adapt to climate change. Zongxing Li works at the Cold and Arid Region Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China.

  5. Anthropogenic Aerosols in Asia, Radiative Forcing, and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramaswamy, V.; Bollasina, M. A.; Ming, Y.; Ocko, I.; Persad, G.

    2014-12-01

    Aerosols arising as a result of human-induced emissions in Asia form a key 'driver' in causing pollution and in the forcing of anthropogenic climate change. The manner of the forced climate change is sensitive to the scattering and absorption properties of the aerosols and the aerosol-cloud microphysical interactions. Using the NOAA/ GFDL global climate models and observations from multiple platforms, we investigate the radiative perturbations due to the 20th Century sulfate and carbonaceous aerosol emissions and the resultant impacts on surface temperature, tropical precipitation, Indian monsoon, hemispheric circulation, and atmospheric and oceanic heat transports. The influence of the aerosol species has many contrasts with that due to the anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gas emissions e.g., the asymmetry in the hemispheric climate response, but is subject to larger uncertainties. The aerosol forcing expected in the future indicates a significant control on the 21st Century anthropogenic climate change in Asia.

  6. Physical Controls of the Earth's Climate and Climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Graeme

    2013-03-01

    The Earth's climate system and changes to it are determined by the physical processes that govern the flows of energy to and from the atmosphere and Earth's surface. Although the energy exchanges at the top of the atmosphere are well determined from available satellite measurements, the global character of the energy flows within the climate system, and to and from the Earth's surface in particular, are not directly measured and thus are much more uncertain. The surface energy balance is particularly important since geographical variations of its distribution drives ocean circulations, dictates the amount of water evaporated from the Earth's surface, fuels the planetary hydrological cycle and ultimately controls how this hydrological cycle responds to forced climate change. This talk reviews our state of understanding of the physical processes that determine the energy balance, couple to the Earth's water cycle and are responsible for the most important climate feedbacks that dictate the pace of climate change. Challenges in understanding the mechanisms responsible for feedbacks associated with clouds and precipitation, water vapor, snow cover and carbon will be highlighted. The further complexity and uncertainty that aerosols add to the cloud and precipitation feedbacks will also be reviewed. The effects of uncertainties in our understanding of the physical climate system, and feedbacks within it, will be reviewed in the context of climate change projections.

  7. Linkages between development and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Halsnaes, K. [UNEP, Roskilde (Denmark); Verhagen, J. [Plant Res. International, Wageningen (Netherlands); Rovere, E. La [Centro Clima. Centre for Integrated Studies on Climate Change and Environment, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Klein, R. [Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impacts Res., PIK, Potsdam (DE); Huq, S. [International Inst. for Environment and Development, IIED, London (United Kingdom)

    2003-11-01

    This paper aims at assessing how the development and climate change literature has considered potential linkages and synergies between general development policies and climate change adaptation and mitigation policies. The starting point for this review is to give an overview of how alternative economic development paradigms can be used as a background for understanding and assessing development and climate linkages. In this way, it is demonstrated how climate change issues are related to basic factors in economic and social development processes, as an introduction to a discussion about how alternative policy recommendations for integrated development and climate policies can be understood in the context of different development paradigms. The last part of the paper returns to the climate change and sustainable development discussion that in recent years has been running in parallel to the Third Assessment of IPCC. This discussion, to a large extent has been dominated by the climate change agenda rather than a broader development policy perspectives, and the paper finally suggests a number of areas where integrated development and climate studies could anchor climate change studies more in the development agenda. (au)

  8. Influences of man-made emissions and climate changes on tropospheric ozone, methane, and sulfate at 2030 from a broad range of possible futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, Nadine; Shindell, Drew T.; Koch, Dorothy M.; Amann, Markus; Cofala, Janusz; Streets, David G.

    2006-06-01

    We apply the Goddard Institute for Space Studies composition-climate model to an assessment of tropospheric O3, CH4, and sulfate at 2030. We compare four different anthropogenic emissions forecasts: A1B and B1 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and Current Legislation (CLE) and Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. The projections encompass a wide range of possible man-made emissions changes. The A1B, B1, and CLE forecasts all suggest large increases in surface O3 and sulfate baseline pollution at tropical and subtropical latitudes, especially over the Indian subcontinent, where the pollution increases may be as large as 100%. The ranges of annual mean regional ground level O3 and sulfate changes across all scenarios are -10 to +30 ppbv and -1200 to +3000 pptv, respectively. Physical climate changes reduce future surface O3, but tend to increase ground level sulfate locally over North Africa because of an enhancement of aqueous-phase SO2 oxidation. For all examined future scenarios the combined sum of the CH4, O3, and sulfate radiative forcings is positive, even for the MFR scenario, because of the large reduction in sulfate. For A1B the forcings are as much as half of that of the preindustrial to present-day forcing for each species. For MFR the sign of the forcing for each species is reversed with respect to the other scenarios. At 2030, global changes in climate-sensitive natural emissions of CH4 from wetlands, NOx from lightning, and dimethyl sulfide from the ocean appear to be small (<5%).

  9. How Will Climate Change Affect Globalization?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dilyard, John Raymond; Bals, Lydia; Zhuplev, Anatoly;

    2011-01-01

    , it will effect globalization. Businesses, if they want to be sustained, will have to adjust to climate change. This panel will examine two topics within which the relationship between climate change and globalization can be assessed - the sourcing of resources and services when the location of those resources...

  10. Climate change threatens European conservation areas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bastos Araujo, Miguel; Alagador, Diogo; Cabeza, Mar;

    2011-01-01

    Europe has the world's most extensive network of conservation areas. Conservation areas are selected without taking into account the effects of climate change. How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change? We assess the effectiveness of protected areas and the Natur...

  11. Incorporating Agency Into Climate Change Risk Assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R.N. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria, 3195 (Australia)

    2004-11-01

    Human agency has been viewed as a problem for climate change assessments because of its contribution to uncertainty. In this editorial, I outline the advantages of agency in managing climate change risks, describing how those advantages can be placed within a probabilistic framework.

  12. European climate change policy beyond 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-11-15

    There is an increasing scientific consensus that human activities do trigger climate changes. Actual forecasts predict temperature increases that are likely to be beyond the adaptation potential of ecosystems. These considerations play a major role in shaping public opinion and the media landscape, culminating in the view that Europe needs to play a leading role in combating climate change.

  13. Harnessing Homophily to Improve Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monroe, Martha C.; Plate, Richard R.; Adams, Damian C.; Wojcik, Deborah J.

    2015-01-01

    The Cooperative Extension Service (Extension) in the United States is well positioned to educate the public, particularly farmers and foresters, about climate change and to encourage responsible adoption of adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, the climate change attitudes and perceptions of Extension professionals have limited…

  14. International business and global climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pinkse, J.; Kolk, A.

    2008-01-01

    Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and clima

  15. How Does Climate Change Affect Biodiversity?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bastos Araujo, Miguel; Rahbek, Carsten

    2006-01-01

    The most recent and complex bioclimate models excel at describing species' current distributions. Yet, it is unclear which models will best predict how climate change will affect their future distributions.......The most recent and complex bioclimate models excel at describing species' current distributions. Yet, it is unclear which models will best predict how climate change will affect their future distributions....

  16. Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Richardson, K.; Steffen, W.; Liverman, D.; Barker, T.; Jotzo, F.; Kammen, D.M.; Leemans, R.; Lenton, T.M.; Munasinghe, M.; Osman-Elasha, B.; Schellnhuber, H.J.; Stern, N.; Vogel, C.; Waever, O.

    2011-01-01

    Providing an up-to-date synthesis of knowledge relevant to the climate change issue, this book ranges from the basic science documenting the need for policy action to the technologies, economic instruments and political strategies that can be employed in response to climate change. Ethical and cultu

  17. Enchytraeidae (Oligochaeta) in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maraldo, Kristine

    The background for this thesis was to investigate the effect of climate change (increased CO2, temperature and prolonged drought) on field communities of enchytraeids dominated by the species Cognettia sphagnetorum. In the short-term, enchytraeids appear to be unaffected by the climate change when...

  18. 10 Facts on Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    World health organization 10 facts on climate change and health Next UNEP/Still Pictures Previous 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Next Over the last 50 ... more heat in the lower atmosphere. The resulting changes in the global climate bring a range of risks to health, from ...

  19. Bacteria in ice may record climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    @@ To many people, bacteria and climate change are like chalk and cheese: the srnallest creature versus one of the biggest phenomena on Earth. Not really.Scientists with the CAS Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research (ITP) and coworkers recently reported that small bugs deposited in ice and snow might tell how our climate has been changing.

  20. Climate change: Update on international negotiations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silverman, L. [Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States). Office of Policy

    1997-12-31

    This paper outlines the following: United Nations` framework convention on climatic change; the United States` climate change action plan; current issues to be resolved (targets/timetables, policies, advancing commitments of all parties, and compliance); and implications for clean coal technologies.

  1. Climate change and corn susceptibility to mycotoxins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maize is an essential part of the world’s grain supply, but climate change has the potential to increase maize susceptibility to mycotoxigenic fungal pathogens and reduce food security and safety. While rising atmospheric [CO2] is a driving force of climate change, our understanding of how elevated ...

  2. Singapore Students' Misconceptions of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Chew-Hung; Pascua, Liberty

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is an important theme in the investigation of human-environment interactions in geographic education. This study explored the nature of students' understanding of concepts and processes related to climate change. Through semi-structured interviews, data was collected from 27 Secondary 3 (Grade 9) students from Singapore. The data…

  3. Climate change consequences for the indoor environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ariës, M.B.C.; Bluyssen, P.M.

    2009-01-01

    Scientists warn us about climate change and its effects on the outdoor environment. These effects can have significant consequences for the indoor environment, also in the Netherlands. Climate changes will affect different aspects of the indoor environment as well as the stakeholders of that indoor

  4. Forests and climate change: adaptation and mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bodegom, van A.J.; Savenije, H.; Wit, de M.

    2009-01-01

    ETFRN news No. 50: Forests and Climate Change: adaptation and mitigation. This newsletter contains interesting materials for those who think about the question how to proceed with forests and climate change after Copenhagen, with or without an agreement. Here below are presented some observations fr

  5. The response of glaciers to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klok, Elisabeth Jantina

    2003-01-01

    The research described in this thesis addresses two aspects of the response of glaciers to climate change. The first aspect deals with the physical processes that govern the interaction between glaciers and climate change and was treated by (1) studying the spatial and temporal variation of the glac

  6. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change : From global mean temperature change to climate extremes and high impact weather.

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    2013-01-01

    This talk will describe how evidence has grown in recent years for a human influence on climate and explain how the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is extremely likely (>95% probability) that human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of the observed global-mean warming since the mid-20th century. The fingerprint of human activities has also been detected in warming of the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in changes in some climate extremes. The strengthening of evidence for the effects of human influence on climate extremes is in line with long-held basic understanding of the consequences of mean warming for temperature extremes and for atmospheric moisture. Despite such compelling evidence this does not mean that every instance of high impact weather can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, because climate variability is often a major factor in many locations, especially for rain...

  7. How obliquitiy influences the climate of aquaplanets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snell, Carly; Gomez Leal, Illeana; Kaltenegger, Lisa; Jennings, Ross

    2017-01-01

    The obliquity of the rotation axis plays an important role in the climate and the atmospheric circulation of planets. Using a general circulation model of intermediate complexity, Planet Simulator (PlaSim), we modelled aquaplanets at varying obliquities between 0°and 90°. Changing obliquity leads to significant changes in the circulation and surface temperature. For planets with low obliquities, the climate is warm, and the mean surface temperatures remain almost constant throughout the year. For high obliquities, the mean global temperatures drop below freezing, and the planets experience strong seasons with large regions covered in ice at times throughout the year. These two regimes are the result of changes in the Hadley cells. These findings provide insight into our own planet’s climate as well as the climates and habitability of exoplanets.

  8. Managing for multiple resources under climate change: national forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyce, Linda A; Blate, Geoffrey M; McNulty, Steven G; Millar, Constance I; Moser, Susanne; Neilson, Ronald P; Peterson, David L

    2009-12-01

    This study explores potential adaptation approaches in planning and management that the United States Forest Service might adopt to help achieve its goals and objectives in the face of climate change. Availability of information, vulnerability of ecological and socio-economic systems, and uncertainties associated with climate change, as well as the interacting non-climatic changes, influence selection of the adaptation approach. Resource assessments are opportunities to develop strategic information that could be used to identify and link adaptation strategies across planning levels. Within a National Forest, planning must incorporate the opportunity to identify vulnerabilities to climate change as well as incorporate approaches that allow management adjustments as the effects of climate change become apparent. The nature of environmental variability, the inevitability of novelty and surprise, and the range of management objectives and situations across the National Forest System implies that no single approach will fit all situations. A toolbox of management options would include practices focused on forestalling climate change effects by building resistance and resilience into current ecosystems, and on managing for change by enabling plants, animals, and ecosystems to adapt to climate change. Better and more widespread implementation of already known practices that reduce the impact of existing stressors represents an important "no regrets" strategy. These management opportunities will require agency consideration of its adaptive capacity, and ways to overcome potential barriers to these adaptation options.

  9. Climate change and Public health: vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzzone, F.; Setegn, S.

    2013-12-01

    Climate Change plays a significant role in public health. Changes in climate affect weather conditions that we are accustomed to. Increases in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events such as storms could increase the risk of dangerous flooding, high winds, and other direct threats to people and property. Changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and extreme events could enhance the spread of some diseases. According to studies by EPA, the impacts of climate change on health will depend on many factors. These factors include the effectiveness of a community's public health and safety systems to address or prepare for the risk and the behavior, age, gender, and economic status of individuals affected. Impacts will likely vary by region, the sensitivity of populations, the extent and length of exposure to climate change impacts, and society's ability to adapt to change. Transmissions of infectious disease have been associated with social, economic, ecological, health care access, and climatic factors. Some vector-borne diseases typically exhibit seasonal patterns in which the role of temperature and rainfall is well documented. Some of the infectious diseases that have been documented by previous studies, include the correlation between rainfall and drought in the occurrence of malaria, the influence of the dry season on epidemic meningococcal disease in the sub-Saharan African, and the importance of warm ocean waters in driving cholera occurrence in the Ganges River delta in Asia The rise of climate change has been a major concern in the public health sector. Climate change mainly affects vulnerable populations especially in developing countries; therefore, it's important that public health advocates are involve in the decision-making process in order to provide resources and preventative measures for the challenges that are associated with climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the vulnerability and impact of climate change

  10. Effects of historical land cover changes on climate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI ZhengGuo; YAN XiaoDong; YIN ChongHua; WANG ZhaoMin

    2007-01-01

    In order to explore the influence of anthropogenic land use on the climate system during the last millennium, a set of experiments is performed with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity--the McGill Paleoclimate Model (MPM-2). The present paper mainly focuses on biogeophysical effects of historical land cover changes. A dynamic scenario of deforestation is described based on changes in cropland fraction (RF99). The model simulates a decrease in global mean annual temperature in the range of 0.09-0.16℃, especially 0.14-0.22℃ in Northern Hemisphere during the last 300 years. The responses of climate system to GHGs concentration changes are also calculated for comparisons. Now, afforestation is becoming an important choice for the enhancement of terrestrial carbon sequestration and adjustment of regional climate. The results indicate that biogeophysical effects of land cover changes cannot be neglected in the assessments of climate change.

  11. How Volcanism Controls Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P. L.

    2013-12-01

    km decrease in tropopause height. Changes in the rates and types of volcanism have been the primary cause of climate change throughout geologic time. Large explosive volcanoes erupting as frequently as once per decade increment the world into ice ages. Extensive, effusive basaltic volcanism warms the world out of ice ages. Twelve of the 13 dated basaltic table mountains in Iceland experienced their final eruptive phase during the last deglaciation when deposits of sulfate and volcanic ash fell over Greenland at their highest rates. Massive flood basalts are typically accompanied by extreme warming, ozone depletion, and major mass extinctions. The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum occurred when subaerial extrusion of basalts related to the opening of the Greenland-Norwegian Sea suddenly increased to rates greater than 3000 cubic km per km of rift per million years. Dansgaard-Oeschger sudden warming events are contemporaneous with increased volcanism especially in Iceland and last longer when that volcanism lasts longer. Sudden influxes of fresh water often observed in the North Atlantic during these events are most likely caused by extensive sub-glacial volcanism. The Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age, major droughts, and many sudden changes in human civilization began with substantial increases in volcanism. Extensive submarine volcanism does not affect climate directly but is linked with increases in ocean acidity and anoxic events.

  12. Creating Effective Dialogue Around Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiehl, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    Communicating climate change to people from diverse sectors of society has proven to be difficult in the United States. It is widely recognized that difficulties arise from a number of sources, including: basic science understanding, the psychologically affect laden content surrounding climate change, and the diversity of value systems that exist in our society. I explore ways of working with the affect that arises around climate change and describe specific methods to work with the resistance often encountered when communicating this important issue. The techniques I describe are rooted in psychology and group process and provide means for creating more effective narratives to break through the barriers to communicating climate change science. Examples are given from personal experiences in presenting climate change to diverse groups.

  13. Global Climate Change and Infectious Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EK Shuman

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is occurring as a result of warming of the earth’s atmosphere due to human activity generating excess amounts of greenhouse gases. Because of its potential impact on the hydrologic cycle and severe weather events, climate change is expected to have an enormous effect on human health, including on the burden and distribution of many infectious diseases. The infectious diseases that will be most affected by climate change include those that are spread by insect vectors and by contaminated water. The burden of adverse health effects due to these infectious diseases will fall primarily on developing countries, while it is the developed countries that are primarily responsible for climate change. It is up to governments and individuals to take the lead in halting climate change, and we must increase our understanding of the ecology of infectious diseases in order to protect vulnerable populations.

  14. Climate change in EIA - Inspiration from practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2013-01-01

    taking place. For exploring the praxis of integrating climate change in practice a document study of 100 Danish EIA reports is carried out. From these reports, statistics and examples are drawn. The study shows an emphasis on integration of climate change mitigation, using various quantitative tools......Climate change integration has been a topic of much interest in the field of impact assessment for a period, and thus far quite some emphasis has been put on discussions of purpose, relevance and overall approaches in both Environmental Impact Assessment of projects (EIA) and Strategic...... Environmental Assessments of plans and programmes (SEA). However, EIAs and SEAs are already being made, which integrate climate change, and for some aspects this practice has evolved over a long period. This paper seeks to explore this practice and find inspiration from the work with climate change already...

  15. Mesocosms Reveal Ecological Surprises from Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fordham, Damien A

    2015-12-01

    Understanding, predicting, and mitigating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity poses one of the most crucial challenges this century. Currently, we know more about how future climates are likely to shift across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes. Two recent studies show how mesocosm experiments can hasten understanding of the ecological consequences of climate change on species' extinction risk, community structure, and ecosystem functions. Using a large-scale terrestrial warming experiment, Bestion et al. provide the first direct evidence that future global warming can increase extinction risk for temperate ectotherms. Using aquatic mesocosms, Yvon-Durocher et al. show that human-induced climate change could, in some cases, actually enhance the diversity of local communities, increasing productivity. Blending these theoretical and empirical results with computational models will improve forecasts of biodiversity loss and altered ecosystem processes due to climate change.

  16.  Climate Change and the Arctic Discourses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørst, Lill Rastad

    2009-01-01

      It is now a fact that global warming and climate change are on the public agenda and will remain there for a long time to come. The Arctic has been portrayed as a thermometer for the world mostly because it is very vulnerable to the climatic changes and the subsequent consequences. Inuit are used...... as an example and included as the first witnesses to ‘the big catastrophe'. My hypothesis is that the newly emerging climate debate can establish an unexpected and unique political platform where Inuit can get influence on local as well as global questions. My investigating focus concerning these matters...... are politics, risk and cultural discourses....

  17. Adaptation to climate change in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertz, Ole; Halsnaes, Kirsten; Olesen, Jørgen E; Rasmussen, Kjeld

    2009-05-01

    Adaptation to climate change is given increasing international attention as the confidence in climate change projections is getting higher. Developing countries have specific needs for adaptation due to high vulnerabilities, and they will in this way carry a great part of the global costs of climate change although the rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are mainly the responsibility of industrialized countries. This article provides a status of climate change adaptation in developing countries. An overview of observed and projected climate change is given, and recent literature on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation are reviewed, including the emerging focus on mainstreaming of climate change and adaptation in development plans and programs. The article also serves as an introduction to the seven research articles of this special issue on climate change adaptation in developing countries. It is concluded that although many useful steps have been taken in the direction of ensuring adequate adaptation in developing countries, much work still remains to fully understand the drivers of past adaptation efforts, the need for future adaptation, and how to mainstream climate into general development policies.

  18. Comparative analysis of the influence of climate change and nitrogen deposition on carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems in European Russia: simulation modelling approach

    OpenAIRE

    Komarov, A. S.; V. N. Shanin

    2012-01-01

    An individual-based simulation model, EFIMOD, was used to simulate the response of forest ecosystems to climate change and additional nitrogen deposition. The general scheme of the model includes forest growth depending on nitrogen uptake by plants and mineralization of soil organic matter. The mineralization rate is dependent on nitrogen content in litter and forest floor horizons. Three large forest areas in European Central Russia with a total area of about 17 000 km2

  19. Comparative analysis of the influence of climate change and nitrogen deposition on carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems in European Russia: simulation modelling approach

    OpenAIRE

    Komarov, A. S.; V. N. Shanin

    2012-01-01

    An individual-based simulation model, EFIMOD, was used to simulate the response of forest ecosystems to climate change and additional nitrogen deposition. The general scheme of the model includes forest growth depending on nitrogen uptake by plants and mineralization of soil organic matter. The mineralization rate is dependent on nitrogen content in litter and forest floor horizons. Three large forest areas in European Central Russia with a total area of about