WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate change influences

  1. Climatic Change. Human Influence?

    OpenAIRE

    Gonçalves, Dionísio; Leite, Solange; Ribeiro, A.C.; Figueiredo, Tomás de

    2016-01-01

    We begin by presenting the functioning of the Climate System and the variety of climates that occurs on the surface of the globe. We analyze climate change based on the sun's orbital parameters and other causes, focusing on the current interglacial period and the influence it had on the development of human societies. The following text looks on developing of the climate of the last 1000 years, with considerations about the warm medieval climate, the little ice age, the recovery...

  2. Narrative Style Influences Citation Frequency in Climate Change Science.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ann Hillier

    Full Text Available Peer-reviewed publications focusing on climate change are growing exponentially with the consequence that the uptake and influence of individual papers varies greatly. Here, we derive metrics of narrativity from psychology and literary theory, and use these metrics to test the hypothesis that more narrative climate change writing is more likely to be influential, using citation frequency as a proxy for influence. From a sample of 732 scientific abstracts drawn from the climate change literature, we find that articles with more narrative abstracts are cited more often. This effect is closely associated with journal identity: higher-impact journals tend to feature more narrative articles, and these articles tend to be cited more often. These results suggest that writing in a more narrative style increases the uptake and influence of articles in climate literature, and perhaps in scientific literature more broadly.

  3. Narrative Style Influences Citation Frequency in Climate Change Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hillier, Ann; Kelly, Ryan P; Klinger, Terrie

    2016-01-01

    Peer-reviewed publications focusing on climate change are growing exponentially with the consequence that the uptake and influence of individual papers varies greatly. Here, we derive metrics of narrativity from psychology and literary theory, and use these metrics to test the hypothesis that more narrative climate change writing is more likely to be influential, using citation frequency as a proxy for influence. From a sample of 732 scientific abstracts drawn from the climate change literature, we find that articles with more narrative abstracts are cited more often. This effect is closely associated with journal identity: higher-impact journals tend to feature more narrative articles, and these articles tend to be cited more often. These results suggest that writing in a more narrative style increases the uptake and influence of articles in climate literature, and perhaps in scientific literature more broadly.

  4. Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

    2016-08-01

    Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

  5. Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

    2016-08-01

    Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

  6. Local Climate Experts: The Influence of Local TV Weather Information on Climate Change Perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloodhart, Brittany; Maibach, Edward; Myers, Teresa; Zhao, Xiaoquan

    2015-01-01

    Individuals who identify changes in their local climate are also more likely to report that they have personally experienced global climate change. One way that people may come to recognize that their local climate is changing is through information provided by local TV weather forecasters. Using random digit dialing, 2,000 adult local TV news viewers in Virginia were surveyed to determine whether routine exposure to local TV weather forecasts influences their perceptions of extreme weather in Virginia, and their perceptions about climate change more generally. Results indicate that paying attention to TV weather forecasts is associated with beliefs that extreme weather is becoming more frequent in Virginia, which in turn is associated with stronger beliefs and concerns about climate change. These associations were strongest for individuals who trust their local TV weathercaster as a source of information about climate change, and for those who identify as politically conservative or moderate. The findings add support to the literature suggesting that TV weathercasters can play an important role in educating the public about climate change.

  7. Local Climate Experts: The Influence of Local TV Weather Information on Climate Change Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloodhart, Brittany; Maibach, Edward; Myers, Teresa; Zhao, Xiaoquan

    2015-01-01

    Individuals who identify changes in their local climate are also more likely to report that they have personally experienced global climate change. One way that people may come to recognize that their local climate is changing is through information provided by local TV weather forecasters. Using random digit dialing, 2,000 adult local TV news viewers in Virginia were surveyed to determine whether routine exposure to local TV weather forecasts influences their perceptions of extreme weather in Virginia, and their perceptions about climate change more generally. Results indicate that paying attention to TV weather forecasts is associated with beliefs that extreme weather is becoming more frequent in Virginia, which in turn is associated with stronger beliefs and concerns about climate change. These associations were strongest for individuals who trust their local TV weathercaster as a source of information about climate change, and for those who identify as politically conservative or moderate. The findings add support to the literature suggesting that TV weathercasters can play an important role in educating the public about climate change. PMID:26551357

  8. Influence Processes in Climate Change Negotiations. Modelling the Rounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Courtois, P.

    2002-10-01

    An integrated framework for structuring and evaluating dynamic and sequential climate change decision making in the international arena is presented, taking into account influence processes occurring during negotiation rounds. The analysis integrates imitation, persuasion and dissuasion behaviours. The main innovation brought in the approach is the presentation of a stochastic model framework derived from thermodynamics. The so-called master equation is introduced in order to better understand strategic switch and influence games exerted. The model is illustrated toward a simulation of climate change conferences decision making processes. Characteristics of regions behaviours are derived from the simulations. In particular the bargain behaviours allowing for the emergence of an agreement are presented

  9. Influence Processes in Climate Change Negotiations. Modelling the Rounds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Courtois, P. [CIRED Centre international de recherches sur l' environnement et le developpement, CNRS/EHESS, Paris (France)

    2002-10-01

    An integrated framework for structuring and evaluating dynamic and sequential climate change decision making in the international arena is presented, taking into account influence processes occurring during negotiation rounds. The analysis integrates imitation, persuasion and dissuasion behaviours. The main innovation brought in the approach is the presentation of a stochastic model framework derived from thermodynamics. The so-called master equation is introduced in order to better understand strategic switch and influence games exerted. The model is illustrated toward a simulation of climate change conferences decision making processes. Characteristics of regions behaviours are derived from the simulations. In particular the bargain behaviours allowing for the emergence of an agreement are presented.

  10. Climate change impact on a groundwater-influenced hillslope ecosystem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brolsma, R.J.; Vliet, M.T.H. van; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the effect of climate change on a groundwater‐influenced ecosystem on a hill slope consisting of two vegetation types, one adapted to wet and one adapted to dry soil conditions. The individual effects of changes in precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2

  11. The influence of vegetation dynamics on anthropogenic climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Port

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study, vegetation–climate and vegetation–carbon cycle interactions during anthropogenic climate change are assessed by using the Earth System Model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI ESM that includes vegetation dynamics and an interactive carbon cycle. We assume anthropogenic CO2 emissions according to the RCP 8.5 scenario in the time period from 1850 to 2120. For the time after 2120, we assume zero emissions to evaluate the response of the stabilising Earth System by 2300.

    Our results suggest that vegetation dynamics have a considerable influence on the changing global and regional climate. In the simulations, global mean tree cover extends by 2300 due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and global warming. Thus, land carbon uptake is higher and atmospheric CO2 concentration is lower by about 40 ppm when considering dynamic vegetation compared to the static pre-industrial vegetation cover. The reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration is equivalent to a lower global mean temperature. Moreover, biogeophysical effects of vegetation cover shifts influence the climate on a regional scale. Expanded tree cover in the northern high latitudes results in a reduced albedo and additional warming. In the Amazon region, declined tree cover causes a regional warming due to reduced evapotranspiration. As a net effect, vegetation dynamics have a slight attenuating effect on global climate change as the global climate cools by 0.22 K due to natural vegetation cover shifts in 2300.

  12. Climate change impact on a groundwater-influenced hillslope ecosystem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brolsma, R.J.; Vliet, van M.T.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the effect of climate change on a groundwater-influenced ecosystem on a hill slope consisting of two vegetation types, one adapted to wet and one adapted to dry soil conditions. The individual effects of changes in precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration

  13. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper, the authors discuss in brief the magnitude and rate of past changes in climate and examine the various factors influencing climate in order to place the potential warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in context. Feedback mechanisms that can amplify or lessen imposed climate changes are discussed next. The overall sensitivity of climate to changes in forcing is then considered, followed by a discussion of the time-dependent response of the Earth system. The focus is on global temperature as an indicator for the magnitude of climatic change

  14. Influence of climate changes on the migration ability of technogenic radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Todorov, B.; Kovacheva, P.; Djingova, R.

    2011-01-01

    Full text: Global warming and climatic changes in the last decade focus the attention of scientists worldwide. Changes in climate variables (winds, precipitation, currents, temperature, etc.) affect the transport, transfer, and deposition of contaminants in the environment. Numerous investigations show the strong impact of climatic parameters like temperature and precipitations on soil characteristics, and especially on soil organic matter, which plays a significant role in the migration behaviour of the contaminants in the environment. This defines the need of special attention on elucidation of the impact of temperature and precipitations on the chemical behaviour of the radionuclides. This work presents initial results of a research project aiming to elucidate the influence of climate changes on the migration and bioaccumulation of natural and technogenic radionuclides in terrestrial ecosystems. Different types of soils were contaminated by technogenic radionuclides ( 241 Am, 137 Cs, and 60 Co) and conditioned under different temperatures and soil humidity, simulating sharp climatic variations. Chemical fractionation of the radionuclides was studied by using two different procedures for sequential extractions, followed by radiation detection by gamma-spectrometry. Evaluation of the chemical behaviour of the investigated radionuclides with respect to soil characteristics, temperature and humidity variations and duration of conditioning was performed. Initial conclusions on the influence of the climate changes on the migration ability of radionuclides of different oxidation states were made

  15. INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGES ON WATER RESOURCES IN MOLDOVA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Violeta Ivanov

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims to analyze the current state of affairs with water resources in Moldova, the challenges it faces for its national human and economic development, having in mind that the water resources are quite limited in Moldova, which encounters pollution, degradation influenced by climate change and unwise human activity to their biodiversity and ecosystems, availability and accessibility. It also attempts to highlight the relationship between climate change and water resources in Moldova, which has adverse effects on both environment and people’s health, and raise significant hurdles to the international, regional and sectoral development.

  16. Historical climate-change influences modularity and nestedness of pollination networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalsgaard, Bo; Nielsen, Kristian Trøjelsgaard; González, Ana M. Martin

    2013-01-01

    The structure of species interaction networks is important for species coexistence, community stability and exposure of species to extinctions. Two widespread structures in ecological networks are modularity, i.e. weakly connected subgroups of species that are internally highly interlinked......, and nestedness, i.e. specialist species that interact with a subset of those species with which generalist species also interact. Modularity and nestedness are often interpreted as evolutionary ecological structures that may have relevance for community persistence and resilience against perturbations......, such as climate-change. Therefore, historical climatic fluctuations could influence modularity and nestedness, but this possibility remains untested. This lack of research is in sharp contrast to the considerable efforts to disentangle the role of historical climate-change and contemporary climate on species...

  17. What Influences Climate and Glacier Change in the Southwestern China?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasunari, Teppei J.

    2012-01-01

    The subject of climate change in the areas of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the Himalayas has taken on increasing importance because of available water resources from their mountain glaciers. Many of these glaciers over the region have been retreating, while some are advancing and stable. Other studies report that some glaciers in the Himalayas show acceleration on their shrinkage. However, the causes of the glacier meltings are still difficult to grasp because of the complexity of climatic change and its influence on glacier issues. However, it is vital that we pursue further study to enable the future prediction on glacier changes.

  18. Climate for change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newell, P.

    2000-01-01

    Climate for Change: Non-State Actors and the Global Politics of the Greenhouse provides a challenging explanation of the forces that have shaped the international global warming debate. Unlike existing books on the politics of climate change, this book concentrates on how non-stage actors, such as scientific, environmental and industry groups, as opposed to governmental organisations, affect political outcomes in global fora on climate change. It also provides insights in to the role of the media in influencing the agenda. The book draws on a range of analytical approaches to assess and explain the influence of these non-governmental organisations in the course of global climate change politics. The book will be of interest to all researchers and policy-makers associated with climate change, and will be used on university courses in international relations, politics and environmental studies. (Author)

  19. Climate change and health: global to local influences on disease risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patz, J A; Olson, S H

    2006-01-01

    The World Health Organization has concluded that the climatic changes that have occurred since the mid 1970s could already be causing annually over 150,000 deaths and five million disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), mainly in developing countries. The less developed countries are, ironically, those least responsible for causing global warming. Many health outcomes and diseases are sensitive to climate, including: heat-related mortality or morbidity; air pollution-related illnesses; infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted, indirectly, via water or by insect or rodent vectors; and refugee health issues linked to forced population migration. Yet, changing landscapes can significantly affect local weather more acutely than long-term climate change. Land-cover change can influence micro-climatic conditions, including temperature, evapo-transpiration and surface run-off, that are key determinants in the emergence of many infectious diseases. To improve risk assessment and risk management of these synergistic processes (climate and land-use change), more collaborative efforts in research, training and policy-decision support, across the fields of health, environment, sociology and economics, are required.

  20. Factors influencing smallholder farmers' behavioural intention towards adaptation to climate change in transitional climatic zones: A case study of Hwedza District in Zimbabwe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamasiya, Byron; Nyikahadzoi, Kefasi; Mukamuri, Billy Billiard

    2017-08-01

    This paper examines factors influencing behavioural change among smallholder farmers towards adaptation to climate change in transitional climatic zones of Africa, specifically, Hwedza District in Zimbabwe. Data for this study were collected from 400 randomly-selected smallholder farmers, using a structured questionnaire, focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The study used an ordered logit model to examine the factors that influence smallholder farmers' behavioural intention towards adaptation to climate change. Results from the study show that the gender of the household head, access to extension services on crop and livestock production, access to climate information, membership to social groups and experiencing a drought have a positive influence on farmers' attitude towards adaptation to climate change and variability. The study concluded that although the majority of smallholder farmers perceive that the climate is changing, they continue to habour negative attitudes towards prescribed climate change adaptation techniques. This study recommends more education on climate change, as well as adaptation strategies for both agricultural extension workers and farmers. This can be complemented by disseminating timely climate information through extension officers and farmers' groups. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.

  2. The Influence of Instruction, Prior Knowledge, and Values on Climate Change Risk Perception among Undergraduates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aksit, Osman; McNeal, Karen S.; Gold, Anne U.; Libarkin, Julie C.; Harris, Sara

    2018-01-01

    We evaluated influences on the climate change risk perceptions of undergraduate students in an introductory Earth Science course. For this sample, domain-specific content knowledge about climate change was a significant predictor of students' risk perception of climate change while cultural worldviews (individualism, hierarchy) and political…

  3. Climate for Change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    Cities rather than national governments take the lead in acting on climate change. Several cities have voluntarily created climate change plans to prevent and prepare for the effects of climate change. In the literature climate change has been examined as a multilevel governance area taking place...... around international networks. Despite the many initiatives taken by cities, existing research shows that the implementation of climate change actions is lacking. The reasons for this scarcity in practice are limited to general explanations in the literature, and studies focused on explaining...... the constraints on climate change planning at the local level are absent. To understand these constraints, this PhD thesis investigates the institutional dynamics that influence the process of the integration of climate change into planning practices at the local level in Denmark. The examination of integration...

  4. Understanding climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fellous, J.L.; Gautier, C.; Andre, J.C.; Balstad, R.; Boucher, O.; Brasseur, G.; Chahine, M.T.; Chanin, M.L.; Ciais, P.; Corell, W.; Duplessy, J.C.; Hourcade, J.C.; Jouzel, J.; Kaufman, Y.J.; Laval, K.; Le Treut, H.; Minster, J.F.; Moore, B. III; Morel, P.; Rasool, S.I.; Remy, F.; Smith, R.C.; Somerville, R.C.J.; Wood, E.F.; Wood, H.; Wunsch, C.

    2007-01-01

    Climatic change is gaining ground and with no doubt is stimulated by human activities. It is therefore urgent to better understand its nature, importance and potential impacts. The chapters of this book have been written by US and French experts of the global warming question. After a description of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, GIEC in French) consensus, they present the past and present researches on each of the main component of the climate system, on the question of climatic change impacts and on the possible answers. The conclusion summarizes the results of each chapter. Content: presentation of the IPCC; greenhouse effect, radiation balance and clouds; atmospheric aerosols and climatic change; global water cycle and climate; influence of climatic change on the continental hydrologic cycle; ocean and climate; ice and climate; global carbon cycle; about some impacts of climatic change on Europe and the Atlantic Ocean; interaction between atmospheric chemistry and climate; climate and society, the human dimension. (J.S.)

  5. Research Advances of Impacts of Climate Changes on Crop Climatic Adaptability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Agriculture received most direct influences from climate changes. Because of climate changes, agricultural climate resources changed and thus influenced climate adaptability of agricultural products. The growth and output of crops were finally affected. The calculation method and application of agricultural products in recent years were summarized. Several questions about the response of agricultural crops to climate elements were proposed for attention.

  6. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and influencing factors: a study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Dang, Hoa; Li, Elton; Nuberg, Ian; Bruwer, Johan

    2014-08-01

    Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.

  7. Farmers' Perceived Risks of Climate Change and Influencing Factors: A Study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Dang, Hoa; Li, Elton; Nuberg, Ian; Bruwer, Johan

    2014-08-01

    Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.

  8. Climate change and forest disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virginia H. Dale; Linda A. Joyce; Steve McNulty; Ronald P. Neilson; Matthew P. Ayres; Michael D. Flannigan; Paul J. Hanson; Lloyd C. Irland; Ariel E. Lugo; Chris J. Peterson; Daniel Simberloff; Frederick J. Swanson; Brian J. Stocks; Michael Wotton

    2001-01-01

    This article examines how eight disturbances influence forest structure, composition, and function, and how climate change may influence the severity, frequency, and magnitude of disturbances to forests. We focus on examples from the United States, although these influences occur worldwide. We also consider options for coping with disturbance under changing climate....

  9. Influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of European cities to flooding during extreme precipitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Høegh Ravn, N.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    In this paper we present a methodology suitable for investigating the relative and combined influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of cities to pluvial flooding. A combined hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing approach enables the quantificatio...... during the past 30 years caused an increase in flood exposure that is comparable to what is expected in the RCP4.5 (+2°C) climate scenario.......In this paper we present a methodology suitable for investigating the relative and combined influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of cities to pluvial flooding. A combined hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing approach enables the quantification...

  10. Assessing climate change awareness influence on Egyptian children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sherine El Sakka

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Climate change (CCH is one of the important issues raised globally lately. heat, humidity pollution could harm children, cause diseases and death,85 % of the world’s youth live in the de-veloping countries, and Egypt as one of the developing countries its children face a great risk spe-cially with the presence of weak climate change awareness impact. Our research will investigate Egypt climate change awareness (CCA problem and how it affects Egyptian children, we will try to explore children problems (CHP, due to limited climate change awareness and conclude by emphasizing the importance of having appropriate solution; in term of avoiding negative climate change impact (CCHI on children in the future.

  11. How Teachers' Beliefs About Climate Change Influence Their Instruction and Resulting Student Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nation, M.; Feldman, A.; Smith, G.

    2017-12-01

    The purpose of the study was to understand the relationship between teachers' beliefs and understandings of climate change and their instructional practices to determine if and how they impact student outcomes. Limited research has been done in the area of teacher beliefs on climate change, their instruction, and resulting student outcomes. This study contributes to the greater understanding of teachers' beliefs and impact on climate change curriculum implementation. The study utilized a mixed methods approach to data collection and analysis. Data were collected in the form of classroom observations, surveys, and interviews from teachers and students participating in the study over a four-month period. Qualitative and quantitative findings were analyzed through thematic coding and descriptive analysis and compared in an effort to triangulate findings. The results of the study suggest teachers and students believe climate change is occurring and humans are largely to blame. Personal beliefs are important when teaching controversial topics, such as climate change, but participants maintained neutrality within their instruction of the topic, as not to appear biased or influence students' decisions about climate change, and avoid political controversy in the classroom. Overall, the study found teachers' level of understandings and beliefs about climate change had little impact on their instruction and resulting student outcomes. Based on the findings, simply adding climate change to the existing science curriculum is not sufficient for teachers or students. Teachers need to be better prepared about effective pedagogical practices of the content in order to effectively teach a climate-centered curriculum. The barriers that exist for the inclusion of teachers' personal beliefs need to be removed in order for teachers to assert their own personal beliefs about climate change within their classroom instruction. Administrators and stakeholders need to support science

  12. Influence of smallholder farmers’ perceptions on adaptation strategies to climate change and policy implications in Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiri Obert

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Smallholder agricultural production is largely affected by climate change and variability. Despite the negative effects brought by climate variability, smallholder farmers are still able to derive livelihoods. An understanding of factors that influence farmers’ responses and adaptation to climate variability can improve decision making for governments and development partners. This study investigated farmers’ perceptions and adaptation strategies to climate change and how these influence adaptation policies at local level. A survey was conducted with 100 households randomly selected from Chiredzi district. Data collected was used to derive farmer perceptions to climate change as well as the influence of their perceptions and subsequent adaptation methods to ensuing local agricultural adaptation measures and policies. The results indicated that smallholder farmers perceived general reduction in long-term annual rainfall and rising local average temperatures. Adverse trends in rainfall and average temperature perceived by farmers were consistent with empirical data. These perceptions and other socio-economic factors helped to shape smallholder farmer agricultural adaptation strategies. Policy implications are that the government and development partners should seek ways to assist autonomous adaptations by farmers through investments in planned adaptation initiatives.

  13. Analysis and detection of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thejll, P.; Stendel, M.

    2001-01-01

    The authors first discuss the concepts 'climate' and 'climate change detection', outlining the difficulties of the latter in terms of the properties of the former. In more detail they then discuss the analysis and detection, carried out at the Danish Climate Centre, of anthropogenic climate change and the nonanthropogenic changes regarding anthropogenic climate change the emphasis is on the improvement of global and regional climate models, and the reconstruction of past climates regarding non-anthropogenic changes the authors describe two case studies of potential solar influence on climate. (LN)

  14. Climate change influences on marine infectious diseases: implications for management and society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burge, Colleen A.; Eakin, C. Mark; Friedman, Carolyn S.; Froelich, Brett; Hershberger, Paul K.; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Petes, Laura E.; Prager, Katherine C.; Weil, Ernesto; Willis, Bette L.; Ford, Susan E.; Harvell, C. Drew

    2014-01-01

    Infectious diseases are common in marine environments, but the effects of a changing climate on marine pathogens are not well understood. Here, we focus on reviewing current knowledge about how the climate drives hostpathogen interactions and infectious disease outbreaks. Climate-related impacts on marine diseases are being documented in corals, shellfish, finfish, and humans; these impacts are less clearly linked to other organisms. Oceans and people are inextricably linked, and marine diseases can both directly and indirectly affect human health, livelihoods, and well-being. We recommend an adaptive management approach to better increase the resilience of ocean systems vulnerable to marine diseases in a changing climate. Land-based management methods of quarantining, culling, and vaccinating are not successful in the ocean; therefore, forecasting conditions that lead to outbreaks and designing tools/approaches to influence these conditions may be the best way to manage marine disease.

  15. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change : From global mean temperature change to climate extremes and high impact weather.

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2013-01-01

    This talk will describe how evidence has grown in recent years for a human influence on climate and explain how the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is extremely likely (>95% probability) that human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of the observed global-mean warming since the mid-20th century. The fingerprint of human activities has also been detected in warming of the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in changes in some climate extremes. The strengthening of evidence for the effects of human influence on climate extremes is in line with long-held basic understanding of the consequences of mean warming for temperature extremes and for atmospheric moisture. Despite such compelling evidence this does not mean that every instance of high impact weather can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, because climate variability is often a major factor in many locations, especially for rain...

  16. Influence of climate change on air quality in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lecoeur, Eve

    2013-01-01

    Air pollution is the result of high emissions of pollutants (and pollutant precursors) and unfavorable meteorological conditions. Fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) is one of the pollutants of great concern for human health. Every year, a repeated or continuous exposure to such particles is responsible for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases among the concerned populations and leads to premature deaths. Climate change is expected to impact meteorological variables (temperature, wind, precipitation,...). Those variables will influence numerous factors, which will affect air quality (emissions, precipitation scavenging, gas/particle equilibrium,...). A large body of studies have already investigated the effects of climate change on ozone, whereas only a few have addressed its effects on PM 2.5 concentrations, especially over Europe. This is the subject we investigate in this thesis. Large-scale circulation is closely linked to surface meteorological variables. Therefore, it is expected that it will impact PM 2.5 concentrations too. In this thesis, we develop a statistical algorithm to estimate future PM 2.5 concentrations from present PM 2.5 observations, selected meteorological variables and tools to represent this circulation (weather regimes and weather types). The lack of daily observations of PM 2.5 and its components over Europe prevents us to used observations. Consequently, we have created a pseudo-observed PM 2.5 data set, by using the Polyphemus/Polair3D air quality Chemical-Transport Model. Both operational and dynamic evaluations were conducted against EMEP measurements, to ensure that the influence of meteorological variables on PM 2.5 concentrations is correctly reproduced by the model. As far as we know, this dynamic evaluation of an air quality model with respect to meteorology is the first conducted to date. Future PM 2.5 concentrations display an increase over the U.K., northern France, Benelux, and in the Balkans, and a decrease over northern

  17. Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine; Carr, Eric; Metcalf, Sara S.; Winter, Jonathan M.; Howe, Peter D.; Fefferman, Nina; Franck, Travis; Zia, Asim; Kinzig, Ann; Hoffman, Forrest M.

    2018-01-01

    Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4-6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with the largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.

  18. Patterns and processes influencing helminth parasites of Arctic coastal communities during climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galaktionov, K V

    2017-07-01

    This review analyses the scarce available data on biodiversity and transmission of helminths in Arctic coastal ecosystems and the potential impact of climate changes on them. The focus is on the helminths of seabirds, dominant parasites in coastal ecosystems. Their fauna in the Arctic is depauperate because of the lack of suitable intermediate hosts and unfavourable conditions for species with free-living larvae. An increasing proportion of crustaceans in the diet of Arctic seabirds would result in a higher infection intensity of cestodes and acanthocephalans, and may also promote the infection of seabirds with non-specific helminths. In this way, the latter may find favourable conditions for colonization of new hosts. Climate changes may alter the composition of the helminth fauna, their infection levels in hosts and ways of transmission in coastal communities. Immigration of boreal invertebrates and fish into Arctic seas may allow the circulation of helminths using them as intermediate hosts. Changing migratory routes of animals would alter the distribution of their parasites, facilitating, in particular, their trans-Arctic transfer. Prolongation of the seasonal 'transmission window' may increase the parasitic load on host populations. Changes in Arctic marine food webs would have an overriding influence on the helminths' circulation. This process may be influenced by the predicted decreased of salinity in Arctic seas, increased storm activity, coastal erosion, ocean acidification, decline of Arctic ice, etc. Greater parasitological research efforts are needed to assess the influence of factors related to Arctic climate change on the transmission of helminths.

  19. Network structure and influence of the climate change counter-movement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Justin

    2016-04-01

    Anthropogenic climate change represents a global threat to human well-being and ecosystem functioning. Yet despite its importance for science and policy, our understanding of the causes of widespread uncertainty and doubt found among the general public remains limited. The political and social processes driving such doubt and uncertainty are difficult to rigorously analyse, and research has tended to focus on the individual-level, rather than the larger institutions and social networks that produce and disseminate contrarian information. This study presents a new approach by using network science to uncover the institutional and corporate structure of the climate change counter-movement, and machine-learning text analysis to show its influence in the news media and bureaucratic politics. The data include a new social network of all known organizations and individuals promoting contrarian viewpoints, as well as the entirety of all written and verbal texts about climate change from 1993-2013 from every organization, three major news outlets, all US presidents, and every occurrence on the floor of the US Congress. Using network and computational text analysis, I find that the organizational power within the contrarian network, and the magnitude of semantic similarity, are both predicted by ties to elite corporate benefactors.

  20. Market strategies for climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.M.

    2004-01-01

    The issue of climate change has attracted increasing business attention in the past decade. Whereas companies initially aimed primarily at influencing the policy debate, corporate strategies increasingly include economic responses. Existing classifications for climate change strategies however still

  1. The influence of climate change on meteorological drought characteristic in Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pao-Shan Yu; Chun-Chao Kuo; Chi-Wen Sung

    2004-01-01

    Global climate change and its influence on water resource are the worldwide issues. This study aims at investigating the impacts of climate change on drought characteristic in western Taiwan. This analysis on local climate change, may provide the reference for climate change study on Asia region. Thirty-one rainfall stations with at least 80 years records over western Taiwan provide the data set to analysis trend and change in the long term rainfall series. As the area of Taiwan is too small, the GCM is not suitable for our investigation on climate change. Therefore, the statistical methods of Cumulative Deviations test, Kruskal-Wallis test and Mann-Whitney-Pettitt test were applied to detect the change points of annual rainfall depth and detect whether the long-term rainfall series exist variation and tendency in the historical records. The analytical results reveal that a significant change point occurs during about 1960s for annual rainfall series. Two samples in the long- tern rainfall series are further divided based on this change point. Yearly rainfall depth increases in northern Taiwan and decreases in middle and southern Taiwan. Average values and standard deviation of monthly rainfall depth in these two samples are compared. A stable reducing tendency of average rainfall in the wet seasons (May to October) is found in middle and southern Taiwan and increasing tendency in northern Taiwan. We further investigate whether drought characteristic is difference before and after 1960. Nine irrigation areas in Taiwan are divided based on its irrigation system. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is estimated and compared with historical agriculture drought. It is found that 3-month SPI has better characteristic than 1-month SPI to respond the agriculture drought characteristic. Therefore, 3-month SPI for each irrigation area is estimated both before and after 1960. It is found that the frequency and duration of moderate dry (3-month SPI<-1.0) and severely dry

  2. Influence of climate variability versus change at multi-decadal time scales on hydrological extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    Recent studies have shown that rainfall and hydrological extremes do not randomly occur in time, but are subject to multidecadal oscillations. In addition to these oscillations, there are temporal trends due to climate change. Design statistics, such as intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) for extreme rainfall or flow-duration-frequency (QDF) relationships, are affected by both types of temporal changes (short term and long term). This presentation discusses these changes, how they influence water engineering design and decision making, and how this influence can be assessed and taken into account in practice. The multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes were studied based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles. The statistical significance of the oscillations was evaluated by means of a non-parametric bootstrapping method. Oscillations in large scale atmospheric circulation were identified as the main drivers for the temporal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes. They also explain why spatial phase shifts (e.g. north-south variations in Europe) exist between the oscillation highs and lows. Next to the multidecadal climate oscillations, several stations show trends during the most recent decades, which may be attributed to climate change as a result of anthropogenic global warming. Such attribution to anthropogenic global warming is, however, uncertain. It can be done based on simulation results with climate models, but it is shown that the climate model results are too uncertain to enable a clear attribution. Water engineering design statistics, such as extreme rainfall IDF or peak or low flow QDF statistics, obviously are influenced by these temporal variations (oscillations, trends). It is shown in the paper, based on the Brussels 10-minutes rainfall data, that rainfall design values may be about 20% biased or different when based on short rainfall series of 10 to 15 years length, and

  3. Climate changes over the past millennium: Relationships with Mediterranean climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mann, M.E.

    2006-01-01

    Evidence is reviewed for climate change and its causes over the interval spanning roughly the past millennium. Particular emphasis is placed on patterns of climate change influencing Mediterranean climates of the Northern Hemisphere. The evidence is taken from studies using high-resolution climate proxy data sources, and climate modeling simulations. The available evidence suggests that forced changes in dynamical modes of variability including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have played a key role in the patterns of climate variability in Mediterranean regions over the past millennium

  4. Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.; Torn, Margaret S.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Thomson, Allison M.; Chini, Louise M.; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter; Hurtt, George; Wise, Marshall A.

    2013-06-01

    Proposed climate mitigation measures do not account for direct biophysical climate impacts of land-use change (LUC), nor do the stabilization targets modeled for the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To examine the significance of such effects on global and regional patterns of climate change, a baseline and alternative scenario of future anthropogenic activity are simulated within the Integrated Earth System Model, which couples the Global Change Assessment Model, Global Land-use Model, and Community Earth System Model. The alternative scenario has high biofuel utilization and approximately 50% less global forest cover compared to the baseline, standard RCP4.5 scenario. Both scenarios stabilize radiative forcing from atmospheric constituents at 4.5 W/m2 by 2100. Thus, differences between their climate predictions quantify the biophysical effects of LUC. Offline radiative transfer and land model simulations are also utilized to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms driving the coupled response. Boreal deforestation is found to strongly influence climate due to increased albedo coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Globally, the alternative scenario yields a 21st century warming trend that is 0.5 °C cooler than baseline, driven by a 1 W/m2 mean decrease in radiative forcing that is distributed unevenly around the globe. Some regions are cooler in the alternative scenario than in 2005. These results demonstrate that neither climate change nor actual radiative forcing are uniquely related to atmospheric forcing targets such as those found in the RCP’s, but rather depend on particulars of the socioeconomic pathways followed to meet each target.

  5. Optimization of annual energy demand in office buildings under the influence of climate change in Chile

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rubio-Bellido, Carlos; Pérez-Fargallo, Alexis; Pulido-Arcas, Jesús A.

    2016-01-01

    Numerous studies about climate change have emerged in recent years because of their potential impact on many activities of human life, amongst which, the building sector is no exception. Changes in climate conditions have a direct influence on the external conditions for buildings and, thus, on their energy demand. In this context, computer aided simulation provides handy tools that help in assessing this impact. This paper investigates climate data for future scenarios and the effect on energy demand in office buildings in Chile. This data has been generated in the 9 climatic zones that are representative of the main inhabited areas, for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080. Predictions have been produced for the acknowledged A2 ‘medium-high’ Greenhouse Gases emissions GHG scenario, pursuant the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The effect of climate change on the energy demand for office buildings is optimized by implementing the calculation procedure of ISO-13790:2008, based on iterations of its envelope and form. As a result, this research clarifies how future climate scenarios will affect the energy demand for different types of office buildings in Chile, and how their shape and enclosure can be optimized. - Highlights: • Forecast of 9 Chilean climate zones under Greenhouse Gases Scenario A2. • Influence of envelope and form on future energy demand in office buildings. • Multiple iterations on Form Ratio (FR) and Window-to-Wall Ratio (WWR). • Optimization in early stages of design considering global warming.

  6. Coastal erosion's influencing factors include development, dams, wells, and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aubrey, D.G.

    1993-01-01

    The demographic flight to the coast, begun in early civilization, continues unabated worldwide according to latest studies. The percentage of population living on the coast is expected to remain relatively constant over the next few decades, but the total numbers will increase as the population increases. Recent coastal battering by hurricanes and extratropical storms poses questions about coastal habitability and the real economics of coastal development. Repair costs are borne by private individuals as well as the public in various direct and indirect ways. As these costs escalate, it is fitting to ask what the future portends for storm and coastal-flood damage. It is known that development pressures will continue to increase along the coast, but what will happen concurrently to natural-hazard threats to this infrastructure? Though much emphasis has been placed on sea-level rise, the broader issue is climate change in general. Here, the author considers climate change in both its natural and anthropogenic perspectives. Without becoming mired in the debate about the greenhouse effect and human influence on climatic shifts, some of the broad classes of natural hazards that might accompany climate change are examined. There are several categories of possible global-change effects on coastal erosion. In the early 1980's, an Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report postulated increases in global sea level up to 4 meters during the next 100 years. Though balanced somewhat by other, lower estimates of sea-level rise, this higher extreme grabbed public attention. During the next decade, scientists attempted to concur on a more reasonable estimate of global sea-level rise due to climate change. Recent credible estimates suggest that approximately 10 to 20 percent of EPA's earlier maximum estimate is most reasonable

  7. Influence of climate change on the flowering of temperate fruit trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez-Lopez, D.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Sánchez-Sánchez, E.; Centeno, A.; Prieto-Egido, I.; Lopez-de-la-Franca, N.

    2012-04-01

    It is well known that winter chilling is necessary for the flowering of temperate trees. The chilling requirement is a criterion for choosing a species or variety at a given location. Also chemistry products can be used for reducing the chilling-hours needs but make our production more expensive. This study first analysed the observed values of chilling hours for some representative agricultural locations in Spain for the last three decades and their projected changes under climate change scenarios. Usually the chilling is measured and calculated as chilling-hours, and different methods have been used to calculate them (e.g. Richarson et al., 1974 among others) according to the species considered. For our objective North Carolina method (Shaltout and Unrath, 1983) was applied for apples, Utah method (Richardson et al. 1974) for peach and grapevine and the approach used by De Melo-Abreu et al. (2004) for olive trees. The influence of climate change in temperate trees was studied by calculating projections of chilling-hours with climate data from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) at high resolution (25 km) from the European Project ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org/). These projections will allow for analysing the modelled variations of chill-hours between 2nd half of 20C and 1st half of 21C at the study locations.

  8. Climate change: wildfire impact

    OpenAIRE

    Dautbasic, Mirza; Crabtree, J.; Ioras, Florin; Abrudan, Ioan Vasile; Ratnasingam, Jega

    2011-01-01

    Every ecosystem is a complex organization of carefully mixed life forms; a dynamic and particularly sensible system. Consequently, their progressive decline may accelerate climate change and vice versa, influencing flora and fauna composition and distribution, resulting in the loss of biodiversity. Climate changes effects are the principal topics of this volume. Written by internationally renowned contributors, Biodiversity loss in a changing planet offers attractive study cases focused on bi...

  9. Human Impacts and Climate Change Influence Nestedness and Modularity in Food-Web and Mutualistic Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazuhiro Takemoto

    Full Text Available Theoretical studies have indicated that nestedness and modularity-non-random structural patterns of ecological networks-influence the stability of ecosystems against perturbations; as such, climate change and human activity, as well as other sources of environmental perturbations, affect the nestedness and modularity of ecological networks. However, the effects of climate change and human activities on ecological networks are poorly understood. Here, we used a spatial analysis approach to examine the effects of climate change and human activities on the structural patterns of food webs and mutualistic networks, and found that ecological network structure is globally affected by climate change and human impacts, in addition to current climate. In pollination networks, for instance, nestedness increased and modularity decreased in response to increased human impacts. Modularity in seed-dispersal networks decreased with temperature change (i.e., warming, whereas food web nestedness increased and modularity declined in response to global warming. Although our findings are preliminary owing to data-analysis limitations, they enhance our understanding of the effects of environmental change on ecological communities.

  10. Human Impacts and Climate Change Influence Nestedness and Modularity in Food-Web and Mutualistic Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takemoto, Kazuhiro; Kajihara, Kosuke

    2016-01-01

    Theoretical studies have indicated that nestedness and modularity-non-random structural patterns of ecological networks-influence the stability of ecosystems against perturbations; as such, climate change and human activity, as well as other sources of environmental perturbations, affect the nestedness and modularity of ecological networks. However, the effects of climate change and human activities on ecological networks are poorly understood. Here, we used a spatial analysis approach to examine the effects of climate change and human activities on the structural patterns of food webs and mutualistic networks, and found that ecological network structure is globally affected by climate change and human impacts, in addition to current climate. In pollination networks, for instance, nestedness increased and modularity decreased in response to increased human impacts. Modularity in seed-dispersal networks decreased with temperature change (i.e., warming), whereas food web nestedness increased and modularity declined in response to global warming. Although our findings are preliminary owing to data-analysis limitations, they enhance our understanding of the effects of environmental change on ecological communities.

  11. The influence of climatic conditions changes on grain yield in Winter Triticale (X Triticosecale Wittm.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionuț RACZ

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is making out the influence of climatic changes on grain yield of winter triticale in relation with applied fertilizer. The influence of environmental conditions on growing and development of triticale plants depends of grow stages and their duration. During five experimental years (2010-2015 the climatic conditions were different year to year, with an accentuated heating trend, influencing plant phenology, accelerating or slowing down some important processes disturbing grain yield formation. The influence of drought is more accentuated by heating stress and prolonging of these conditions during the main phenological processes have a negative influence on plant growth or development with effect on the grain yield formation process.

  12. Behavioural mechanisms and adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nigussie, Yalemzewd

    2017-01-01

    The literature on climate change adaptation in developing countries focused on the socioeconomic and demographic determinants of adaptation decisions to climate change. Decision behavioural among others is thought to influence the path of innovation uptake related to climate change. We need to

  13. Energy, climate change and sequestration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simioni, M.; Stevens, G.W.

    2007-01-01

    There is now very little debate that the earth's climate is changing, and the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence. Many causes have been postulated and speculation about the eventual outcomes abounds. Whatever eventuates, society will have to adapt to a new and changing climate

  14. Changing climate, changing frames

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vink, Martinus J.; Boezeman, Daan; Dewulf, Art; Termeer, Catrien J.A.M.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► We show development of flood policy frames in context of climate change attention. ► Rising attention on climate change influences traditional flood policy framing. ► The new framing employs global-scale scientific climate change knowledge. ► With declining attention, framing disregards climate change, using local knowledge. ► We conclude that frames function as sensemaking devices selectively using knowledge. -- Abstract: Water management and particularly flood defence have a long history of collective action in low-lying countries like the Netherlands. The uncertain but potentially severe impacts of the recent climate change issue (e.g. sea level rise, extreme river discharges, salinisation) amplify the wicked and controversial character of flood safety policy issues. Policy proposals in this area generally involve drastic infrastructural works and long-term investments. They face the difficult challenge of framing problems and solutions in a publicly acceptable manner in ever changing circumstances. In this paper, we analyse and compare (1) how three key policy proposals publicly frame the flood safety issue, (2) the knowledge referred to in the framing and (3) how these frames are rhetorically connected or disconnected as statements in a long-term conversation. We find that (1) framings of policy proposals differ in the way they depict the importance of climate change, the relevant timeframe and the appropriate governance mode; (2) knowledge is selectively mobilised to underpin the different frames and (3) the frames about these proposals position themselves against the background of the previous proposals through rhetorical connections and disconnections. Finally, we discuss how this analysis hints at the importance of processes of powering and puzzling that lead to particular framings towards the public at different historical junctures

  15. Intraspecific Genetic dynamics under Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Florez Rodriguez, Alexander

    Climate change has a deep influence on the maintenance and generation of global biodiversity. Past contractions, expansions and shifts in species’ ranges drove to changes in species genetic diversity. Noteworthy, the interaction among: climate change, range, population size and extinction is often...

  16. Invertebrates, ecosystem services and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prather, Chelse M; Pelini, Shannon L; Laws, Angela; Rivest, Emily; Woltz, Megan; Bloch, Christopher P; Del Toro, Israel; Ho, Chuan-Kai; Kominoski, John; Newbold, T A Scott; Parsons, Sheena; Joern, A

    2013-05-01

    The sustainability of ecosystem services depends on a firm understanding of both how organisms provide these services to humans and how these organisms will be altered with a changing climate. Unquestionably a dominant feature of most ecosystems, invertebrates affect many ecosystem services and are also highly responsive to climate change. However, there is still a basic lack of understanding of the direct and indirect paths by which invertebrates influence ecosystem services, as well as how climate change will affect those ecosystem services by altering invertebrate populations. This indicates a lack of communication and collaboration among scientists researching ecosystem services and climate change effects on invertebrates, and land managers and researchers from other disciplines, which becomes obvious when systematically reviewing the literature relevant to invertebrates, ecosystem services, and climate change. To address this issue, we review how invertebrates respond to climate change. We then review how invertebrates both positively and negatively influence ecosystem services. Lastly, we provide some critical future directions for research needs, and suggest ways in which managers, scientists and other researchers may collaborate to tackle the complex issue of sustaining invertebrate-mediated services under a changing climate. © 2012 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2012 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  17. Does climate directly influence NPP globally?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Chengjin; Bartlett, Megan; Wang, Youshi; He, Fangliang; Weiner, Jacob; Chave, Jérôme; Sack, Lawren

    2016-01-01

    The need for rigorous analyses of climate impacts has never been more crucial. Current textbooks state that climate directly influences ecosystem annual net primary productivity (NPP), emphasizing the urgent need to monitor the impacts of climate change. A recent paper challenged this consensus, arguing, based on an analysis of NPP for 1247 woody plant communities across global climate gradients, that temperature and precipitation have negligible direct effects on NPP and only perhaps have indirect effects by constraining total stand biomass (Mtot ) and stand age (a). The authors of that study concluded that the length of the growing season (lgs ) might have a minor influence on NPP, an effect they considered not to be directly related to climate. In this article, we describe flaws that affected that study's conclusions and present novel analyses to disentangle the effects of stand variables and climate in determining NPP. We re-analyzed the same database to partition the direct and indirect effects of climate on NPP, using three approaches: maximum-likelihood model selection, independent-effects analysis, and structural equation modeling. These new analyses showed that about half of the global variation in NPP could be explained by Mtot combined with climate variables and supported strong and direct influences of climate independently of Mtot , both for NPP and for net biomass change averaged across the known lifetime of the stands (ABC = average biomass change). We show that lgs is an important climate variable, intrinsically correlated with, and contributing to mean annual temperature and precipitation (Tann and Pann ), all important climatic drivers of NPP. Our analyses provide guidance for statistical and mechanistic analyses of climate drivers of ecosystem processes for predictive modeling and provide novel evidence supporting the strong, direct role of climate in determining vegetation productivity at the global scale. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Does the weather influence public opinion about climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, S. D.; McDaniel, J.

    2010-12-01

    Public opinion in North America about the science of anthropogenic climate change and the motivation for policy action has been variable over the past twenty years. The trends in public opinion over time have been attributed the general lack of pressing public concern about climate change to a range of political, economic and psychological factors. One driving force behind the variability in polling data from year to year may be the weather itself. The difference between what we “expect” - the climate - and what we “get” - the weather - can be a major source of confusion and obfuscation in the public discourse about climate change. For example, reaction to moderate global temperatures in 2007 and 2008 may have helped prompt the spread of a “global cooling” meme in the public and the news media. At the same time, a decrease in the belief in the science of climate change and the need for action has been noted in opinion polls. This study analyzes the relationship between public opinion about climate change and the weather in the U.S. since the mid-1980s using historical polling data from several major organizations (e.g. Gallup, Pew, Harris Interactive, ABC News), historical monthly air temperature (NCDC) and a survey of opinion articles from major U.S. newspapers (Washington Post, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Houston Chronicle, USA Today). Seasonal and annual monthly temperature anomalies for the northeastern U.S and the continental U.S are compared with available national opinion data for three general categories of questions: i) Is the climate warming?, ii) Is the observed warming due to human activity?, and iii) Are you concerned about climate change? The variability in temperature and public opinion over time is also compared with the variability in the fraction of opinion articles in the newspapers (n ~ 7000) which express general agreement or disagreement with IPCC Summary for Policymakers consensus statements on climate change (“most of

  19. Scaling the Problem: How Commercial Interests Have Influenced the U.S. Dialogue on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldman, G. T.; Rogerson, P.

    2012-12-01

    In recent years, corporations and their affiliates have played an increasing role in the national conversation on climate change, with companies weighing in not only on policy debates but also participating in discussions around climate science. A few of these companies in particular have been tremendously influential in dictating how the public understands, or misunderstands, climate science and how the national discourse on climate policy has progressed, or not progressed. To better understand this corporate involvement, we explored the roles that major corporate actors have played during a key time period in 2009 and 2010 when several important climate change policy proposals were being actively debated in the United States. Analyzing multiple venues in which companies engaged in discussion of climate change with different audiences—including the government, shareholders, and the public—we assess the degree to which commercial interests have helped or hindered a science-based public discourse on climate policy in the past decade. Discussion will focus especially on corporations' use of third party organizations, including industry trade groups, think tanks, and others, to exert influence on climate-related policy without accountability.

  20. What influences climate and glacier change in southwestern China?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasunari, Teppei J.

    2011-12-01

    The subject of climate change in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and Himalayas has taken on increasing importance because of the availability of water resources from their mountain glaciers (Immerzeel et al 2010). Many of the glaciers over these regions have been retreating, while some are advancing and stable (Yao et al 2004, Scherler et al 2011). Other studies report that some glaciers in the Himalayas show acceleration of their shrinkage (e.g., Fujita and Nuimura 2011). However, the causes of glacier melting are still difficult to grasp because of the complexity of climatic change and its influence on glacier issues. Despite this, it is vital that we pursue further study to enable future predictions of glacier changes. The paper entitled 'Climate and glacier change in southwestern China during the past several decades' by Li et al (2011) provided carefully analyzed, quality controlled, long-term data on atmospheric temperature and precipitation during the period 1961-2008. The data were obtained from 111 Chinese stations. The researchers performed systematic analyses of temperature and precipitation over the whole southwestern Chinese domain. They discussed those changes in terms of other meteorological components such as atmospheric circulation patterns, radiation and altitude difference, and then showed how these factors could contribute to climate and glacier changes in the region. Air temperature and precipitation are strongly associated with glacier mass balance because of heat balance and the addition of mass when it snows. Temperature warming trends over many places in southwestern China were unequivocally dominant in all seasons and at higher altitudes. This indicates that the heat contribution to the glaciers has been increasing. On the other hand, precipitation has a wider variability in time and space. It is more difficult to clearly understand the effect of precipitation on the climate and glacier melting characteristics in the whole of southwestern China

  1. Influence of the management strategy model on estimating water system performance under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francois, Baptiste; Hingray, Benoit; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Hendrickx, Frederic

    2015-04-01

    The performance of water systems used worldwide for the management of water resources is expected to be influenced by future changes in regional climates and water uses. Anticipating possible performance changes of a given system requires a modeling chain simulating its management. Operational management is usually not trivial especially when several conflicting objectives have to be accounted for. Management models are therefore often a crude representation of the real system and they only approximate its performance. Estimated performance changes are expected to depend on the management model used, but this is often not assessed. This communication analyzes the influence of the management strategy representation on the performance of an Alpine reservoir (Serre-Ponçon, South-East of France) for which irrigation supply, hydropower generation and recreational activities are the main objectives. We consider three ways to construct the strategy named as clear-, short- and far-sighted management. They are based on different forecastability degrees of seasonal inflows into the reservoir. The strategies are optimized using a Dynamic Programming algorithm (deterministic for clear-sighted and implicit stochastic for short- and far-sighted). System performance is estimated for an ensemble of future hydro-meteorological projections obtained in the RIWER2030 research project (http://www.lthe.fr/RIWER2030/) from a suite of climate experiments from the EU - ENSEMBLES research project. Our results show that changes in system performance is much more influenced by changes in hydro-meteorological variables than by the choice of strategy modeling. They also show that a simple strategy representation (i.e. clear-sighted management) leads to similar estimates of performance modifications than those obtained with a representation supposedly closer to real world (i.e. the far-sighted management). The Short-Sighted management approach lead to significantly different results, especially

  2. How Framing Climate Change Influences Citizen Scientists' Intentions to Do Something about It

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Janis L.; Crain, Rhiannon; Yalowitz, Steve; Cherry, Tammy M.

    2013-01-01

    How we communicate the dangers of climate change may influence attitudes, intentions, and behaviors. Here we test two pairs of positive and negative framing statements with North American citizen scientists interested in gardening and birdwatching. Mentioning dangers for humans did not increase participants' interest in taking personal action on…

  3. Limited influence of climate change mitigation on short-term glacier mass loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzeion, Ben; Kaser, Georg; Maussion, Fabien; Champollion, Nicolas

    2018-04-01

    Glacier mass loss is a key contributor to sea-level change1,2, slope instability in high-mountain regions3,4 and the changing seasonality and volume of river flow5-7. Understanding the causes, mechanisms and time scales of glacier change is therefore paramount to identifying successful strategies for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we use temperature and precipitation fields from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 output to force a glacier evolution model, quantifying mass responses to future climatic change. We find that contemporary glacier mass is in disequilibrium with the current climate, and 36 ± 8% mass loss is already committed in response to past greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, mitigating future emissions will have only very limited influence on glacier mass change in the twenty-first century. No significant differences between 1.5 and 2 K warming scenarios are detectable in the sea-level contribution of glaciers accumulated within the twenty-first century. In the long-term, however, mitigation will exert strong control, suggesting that ambitious measures are necessary for the long-term preservation of glaciers.

  4. Climate change projections: past and future mysteries of climate science

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meehl, Gerald A.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: The history of climate change has been wrapped in mysteries. Some have been solved, and we await the outcome of others. The major mystery of 20th century climate was why did temperatures rise in the early part of the century, level off, and then rise rapidly again after the 1970s? It has only been in the past seven years that advances in climate modelling have allowed us to deconstruct 20th century climate to pull apart the separate influences of natural and human-caused factors. This has allowed us to understand the subtle interplay between these various influences that produced the temperature time evolution. Another mystery has involved extreme weather and climate events. Again, climate models have allowed us to quantify how the small changes in average climate translate into much larger changes of regional extremes. The biggest remaining mysteries in climate science involve the future, and how the climate will evolve over the coming century. Up until now, various scenarios postulating different possible outcomes for 21st century climate, assuming different types of human activities, have been run in the climate models to provide a wide range of possible futures. However, more recently the outlook for global warming is being framed as a combination of mitigation and adaptation. If policy actions are taken to mitigate part of the problem of global warming, then climate models must be relied on to quantify the time-evolving picture of how much regional climate change we must adapt to. Solving this mystery will be the biggest and most important challenge ever taken on by the climate modelling community

  5. Risk communication on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wardekker, J.A.

    2004-10-01

    For the title study use has been made of available scientific literature, results of new surveys and interviews. In the first part of the study attention is paid to the exchange of information between parties involved in climate change and differences in supply and demand of information. In the second part citizens' views on climate change, problems with communication on climate change, and the resulting consequences and options for communication are dealt with. In this second part also barriers to action that are related or influenced by communication are taken into consideration

  6. Turning Misinformation into Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borah, N.; Cook, J.

    2017-12-01

    Misinformation reduces science literacy and interferes with new learning. This undermines the application of science to understanding and addressing important societal issues. Intentional misinformation and fake news is of growing concern to the scientists, educators and policymakers. Specifically, misinformation about human-caused climate change has become prominent in recent times creating confusion among the public. Hence, interventions that inoculate people against climate change misinformation are very much necessary. One of the most promising applications of inoculation is in the classroom, using a teaching approach known as misconception-based learning. This involves explaining scientific concepts while directly refuting related misconceptions. Misconception-based learning is a powerful way to neutralize the influence of climate change misinformation by increasing both science literacy and critical thinking skills. Students do not possess as many erroneous preconceptions about climate change relative to adults and hence correcting such misconceptions among students is more effective using this teaching approach. The misconception-based teaching approach has a number of benefits. It results in greater and longer-lasting learning gains relative to standard lessons. It equips students with the tools and knowledge to distinguish between facts and myths and increases confidence to engage in constructive discussion with family and friends about climate change. Further, research has shown that students have an effect on parents' environmental attitudes and behavior. Consequently, misconception-based learning presents the opportunity to reach the adult community through the students. We have developed a high school climate change curriculum based on the misconception-based learning framework. Our intent is to run a pilot project that tests the impact of this curriculum on students' climate perceptions, and any second-order influence on their parents. This research

  7. Creationism & Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, S.

    2009-12-01

    Although creationists focus on the biological sciences, recently creationists have also expanded their attacks to include the earth sciences, especially on the topic of climate change. The creationist effort to deny climate change, in addition to evolution and radiometric dating, is part of a broader denial of the methodology and validity of science itself. Creationist misinformation can pose a serious problem for science educators, who are further hindered by the poor treatment of the earth sciences and climate change in state science standards. Recent changes to Texas’ science standards, for example, require that students learn “different views on the existence of global warming.” Because of Texas’ large influence on the national textbook market, textbooks presenting non-scientific “different views” about climate change—or simply omitting the subject entirely because of the alleged “controversy”—could become part of K-12 classrooms across the country.

  8. Challenging conflicting discourses of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fleming, Aysha; Vanclay, Frank; Hiller, Claire; Wilson, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    The influence of language on communication about climate change is well recognised, but this understanding is under-utilised by those seeking to increase uptake of action for climate change. We discuss the terms, discourse, resistance, and agency, to assist in developing ways to progress social

  9. Increasing Mississippi river discharge throughout the twenty-first century influenced by changes in climate, land use and atmospheric CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, B.; Tian, H.; Ren, W.; Yang, J.; Yang, Q.; He, R.; Cai, W. J.; Lohrenz, S. E.

    2014-12-01

    Previous studies have demonstrated that changes in temperature and precipitation (hereafter climate change) would influence river discharge, but the relative importance of climate change, land use, and elevated atmospheric CO2 have not yet been fully investigated. Here we examined how river discharge in the Mississippi River basin in the 21st century might be influenced by these factors using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model driven by atmospheric CO2, downscaled GCMs climate and land use scenarios. Our results suggest that river discharge would be substantially enhanced (10.7-59.8%) by the 2090s compared to the recent decade (2000s), though large discrepancies exist among different climate, atmospheric CO2, and land use change scenarios. Our factorial analyses further indicate that the combined effects of land use change and human-induced atmospheric CO2 elevation on river discharge would outweigh climate change effect under the high emission scenario (A2) of Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Our study offers the first attempt to project potential changes in river discharge in response to multiple future environmental changes. It demonstrates the importance of land use change and atmospheric CO2 concentrations in projecting future changes in hydrologic processes. The projected increase river discharge implies that riverine fluxes of carbon, nutrients and pesticide from the MRB to the coastal regions would increase in the future, and thus may influence the states of ocean acidification and hypoxia and deteriorate ocean water quality. Further efforts will also be needed to account for additional environmental factors (such as nitrogen deposition, tropospheric ozone pollution, dam construction, etc.) in projecting changes in the hydrological cycle.

  10. Climate change - global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciconkov, Risto

    2001-01-01

    An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

  11. Evaporation and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandsma, T.

    1993-01-01

    In this article the influence of climate change on evaporation is discussed. The emphasis is on open water evaporation. Three methods for calculating evaporation are compared considering only changes in temperature and factors directly dependent on temperature. The Penman-method is used to

  12. Feframing Climate Change for Environmental Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weems, Caitlin; Subramaniam, Prithwi Raj

    2017-04-01

    Repeated warnings by the scientific community on the dire consequences of climate change through global warming to the ecology and sustenance of our planet have not been give appropriate attention by the U.S. public. Research has shown that climate change is responsible for catastrophic weather occurrences--such as floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, and heat waves--resulting in environmental and public health issues. The purpose of this report is to examine factors influencing public views on climate change. Theoretical and political perspectives are examined to unpack opinions held by the public in the U.S. on climate change. The Health Belief Model is used as an example to showcase the efficacy of an individual behavior change program in providing the synergy to understand climate change at the microlevel. The concept of reframing is discussed as a strategy to alter how the public views climate change.

  13. The influence of causal knowledge on the willingness to change attitude towards climate change: results from an empirical study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tasquier, Giulia; Pongiglione, Francesca

    2017-09-01

    Climate change is one of the significant global challenges currently facing humanity. Even though its seriousness seems to be common knowledge among the public, the reaction of individuals to it has been slow and uncertain. Many studies assert that simply knowing about climate change is not enough to generate people's behavioural response. They claim, indeed, that in some cases scientific literacy can even obstruct behavioural response instead. However, recent surveys show a rather poor understanding of climate dynamics and argue that lack of knowledge about causal relationships within climate dynamics can hinder behavioural response, since the individual is not able to understand his/her role as causal agent and therefore doesn't know how to take proper action. This study starts from the hypothesis that scientific knowledge focused on clarifying climate dynamics can make people understand not only dynamics themselves, but also their interactive relationship with the environment. Teaching materials on climate change based on such considerations were designed and implemented in a course for secondary-school students with the aim of investigating whether this kind of knowledge had an influence on students' willingness to adopt pro-environmental behaviours. Questionnaires were delivered for testing the effect of the teaching experience on knowledge and behaviour.

  14. Will climate change capitalism? The major change of the X XI century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mistral, Jacques; Tirole, Jean; Rocard, Michel; Artus, Patrick; Benhamou, Francoise; Betbeze, Jean-Paul; Brender, Anton; Charpin, Jean-Michel; Chevalier, Jean-Marie; Contamin, Raphael; Fulda, Bruno; Geoffron, Patrice; Giraud, Pierre-Noel; Gonand, Frederic; Hassan, Fabien; Jacquet, Pierre; Jouvet, Pierre-Andre; Parker, Geoffrey; Perthuis, Christian de; Schubert, Katheline; Suwa-Eisenmann, Akiko

    2015-01-01

    After an introduction and an interview with an historian on the Little Ice Age of the 17. century, this collective book gathers several contributions. A first set discusses the possible change of capitalism under the influence of the carbon market. The authors discuss the political economy of global warming, the relationship between climate negotiation and carbon price, the ways companies take the carbon price into account in their decisions, and the energy and economic transitions. The second set of contributions discusses the influence of climate on the logics of political choices. The authors address the relationship between natural resources and growth, the macro-economic consequences of climate disruption, how to finance the climate, the virtuous relationships between finance and climate, and why it seems so difficult to act for the climate when considering political ambition and economic lucidity. The third and last set of contributions addresses the possible influence of climate change on geopolitics. The authors address and comment the situation of southern countries with respect to climate change, the American leadership challenged by climate issues, the threat China could be for climate more than for anything else, and the European energy strategy with respect to the COP21. A last article discusses the relationship between global warming and the evolution of the Arctic area

  15. Business responses to global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pinkse, J.M.

    2006-04-27

    This research project studies the evolution and determinants of corporate climate strategies of multinationals. Since most companies are affected by global climate change in a direct or indirect way, a range of strategies are emerging to mitigate climate change. These strategies are not only of a political nature (e.g. influencing government institutions), but also of a competitive nature. The aim is to introduce a typology of corporate climate strategies, paying specific attention to the market components related to climate change. More and more, multinationals' actions in reducing greenhouse gas emissions are aimed at achieving a sustained competitive advantage in addition to compliance with government regulation. What factors determine these market strategies for climate change will be explored in a theoretical framework based on institutional theory and the resource-based view of the firm.

  16. Influence of climate variability on large rivers runoff

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Nurtaev

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In accordance with IPCC Report the influence of climate change on the water cycle will increase hydrologic variability by means of changing of precipitation patterns, melting of ice and change of runoff. Precipitation has increased in high northern latitudes and decreased in southern latitudes. This study presents an analysis of river runoffs trends in different climatic zones of the world in condition of climate change.

  17. Natural versus anthropogenic climate change: Swedish farmers' joint construction of climate perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asplund, Therese

    2016-07-01

    While previous research into understandings of climate change has usually examined general public perceptions, this study offers an audience-specific departure point. This article analyses how Swedish farmers perceive climate change and how they jointly shape their understandings. The agricultural sector is of special interest because it both contributes to and is directly affected by climate change. Through focus group discussions with Swedish farmers, this study finds that (1) farmers relate to and understand climate change through their own experiences, (2) climate change is understood either as a natural process subject to little or no human influence or as anthropogenic and (3) various communication tools contribute to the formation of natural and anthropogenic climate change frames. The article ends by discussing frame resonance and frame clash in public understanding of climate change and by comparing potential similarities and differences in how various segments of the public make sense of climate change. © The Author(s) 2014.

  18. The influence of climate change on Tanzania's hydropower sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Boehlert, Brent; Meijer, Karen; Schellekens, Jaap; Magnell, Jan-Petter; Helbrink, Jakob; Kassana, Leonard; Liden, Rikard

    2015-04-01

    Economic costs induced by current climate variability are large for Tanzania and may further increase due to future climate change. The Tanzanian National Climate Change Strategy addressed the need for stabilization of hydropower generation and strengthening of water resources management. Increased hydropower generation can contribute to sustainable use of energy resources and stabilization of the national electricity grid. To support Tanzania the World Bank financed this study in which the impact of climate change on the water resources and related hydropower generation capacity of Tanzania is assessed. To this end an ensemble of 78 GCM projections from both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 datasets was bias-corrected and down-scaled to 0.5 degrees resolution following the BCSD technique using the Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset as a reference. To quantify the hydrological impacts of climate change by 2035 the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was set-up for Tanzania at a resolution of 3 minutes and run with all 78 GCM datasets. From the full set of projections a probable (median) and worst case scenario (95th percentile) were selected based upon (1) the country average Climate Moisture Index and (2) discharge statistics of relevance to hydropower generation. Although precipitation from the Princeton dataset shows deviations from local station measurements and the global hydrological model does not perfectly reproduce local scale hydrographs, the main discharge characteristics and precipitation patterns are represented well. The modeled natural river flows were adjusted for water demand and irrigation within the water resources model RIBASIM (both historical values and future scenarios). Potential hydropower capacity was assessed with the power market simulation model PoMo-C that considers both reservoir inflows obtained from RIBASIM and overall electricity generation costs. Results of the study show that climate change is unlikely to negatively affect the

  19. Food-web dynamics under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, L.; Takahashi, M.; Hartvig, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Climate change affects ecological communities through its impact on the physiological performance of individuals. However, the population dynamic of species well inside their thermal niche is also determined by competitors, prey and predators, in addition to being influenced by temperature changes....... We use a trait-based food-web model to examine how the interplay between the direct physiological effects from temperature and the indirect effects due to changing interactions between populations shapes the ecological consequences of climate change for populations and for entire communities. Our...... climatically well-adapted species may be brought to extinction by the changed food-web topology. Our results highlight that the impact of climate change on specific populations is largely unpredictable, and apparently well-adapted species may be severely impacted...

  20. Potential Influence of Climate Change on the Acid-Sensitivity of High-Elevation Lakes in the Georgia Basin, British Columbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donna Strang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Global climate models predict increased temperature and precipitation in the Georgia Basin, British Colmbia; however, little is known about the impacts on high-elevation regions. In the current study, fifty-four high-elevation lakes (754–2005 m a.s.l. were studied to investigate the potential influence of climate change on surface water acid-sensitivity. Redundancy analysis indicated that the concentration of nitrate, dissolved organic carbon, and associated metals was significantly influenced by climate parameters. Furthermore, these components differed significantly between biogeoclimatic zones. Modelled soil base cation weathering for a subset of the study lakes (n=11 was predicted to increase by 9% per 1°C increase in temperature. Changes in temperature and precipitation may potentially decrease the pH of surface waters owing to changes in anthropogenic deposition and organic acid production. In contrast, increased soil base cation weathering may increase the critical load (of acidity of high-elevation lakes. Ultimately, the determining factor will be whether enhanced base cation weathering is sufficient to buffer changes in natural and anthropogenic acidity. Mountain and high-elevation regions are considered early warning systems to climate change; as such, future monitoring is imperative to assess the potential ramifications of climate change on the hydrochemistry and acid-sensitivity of these surface waters.

  1. The understanding of world climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petit, M.

    2008-01-01

    After having recalled that the problem of global warming in relationship with human activities has been studied since the end of the nineteenth century and since then by different scientific programs, the author describes how the IPCC's or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's report is produced. He briefly comments how Earth's temperature is determined and the various natural parameters which influence the climate on Earth. He recalls how the IPCC showed the actual influence of human activities, and which changes have actually been observed

  2. A climate of doubts. The weight of uncertainty about climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alex, Bastien

    2014-05-01

    The author proposes a review of four publications about climate change published in 2012 and 2013. He more particularly focuses on how these publications express how climate change is perceived by the different components of our modern societies, how these perceptions have an influence on the answer to challenges related to this phenomenon, what global warming tells us about mankind ability to (re)act to this major challenge. He notices that any doubt about the reality of climate change is exploited and maintains some confusion, favours the propagation and persistence of popular misbelief such as: population of developing countries will be more impacted by effects of climate change, only rich people can afford interest in environment protection and climate preservation. He outlines that a doubting community will not act, and notices that technological advances, for example geo-engineering or climate engineering, tend to deliberately manipulate the environment to counteract the climate change due to human activity

  3. Influences of climate change on water resources availability in Jinjiang Basin, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Wenchao; Wang, Jie; Li, Zhanjie; Yao, Xiaolei; Yu, Jingshan

    2014-01-01

    The influences of climate change on water resources availability in Jinjiang Basin, China, were assessed using the Block-wise use of the TOPmodel with the Muskingum-Cunge routing method (BTOPMC) distributed hydrological model. The ensemble average of downscaled output from sixteen GCMs (General Circulation Models) for A1B emission scenario (medium CO2 emission) in the 2050s was adopted to build regional climate change scenario. The projected precipitation and temperature data were used to drive BTOPMC for predicting hydrological changes in the 2050s. Results show that evapotranspiration will increase in most time of a year. Runoff in summer to early autumn exhibits an increasing trend, while in the rest period of a year it shows a decreasing trend, especially in spring season. From the viewpoint of water resource availability, it is indicated that it has the possibility that water resources may not be sufficient to fulfill irrigation water demand in the spring season and one possible solution is to store more water in the reservoir in previous summer.

  4. Contributions of changes in climatology and perturbation and the resulting nonlinearity to regional climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adachi, Sachiho A; Nishizawa, Seiya; Yoshida, Ryuji; Yamaura, Tsuyoshi; Ando, Kazuto; Yashiro, Hisashi; Kajikawa, Yoshiyuki; Tomita, Hirofumi

    2017-12-20

    Future changes in large-scale climatology and perturbation may have different impacts on regional climate change. It is important to understand the impacts of climatology and perturbation in terms of both thermodynamic and dynamic changes. Although many studies have investigated the influence of climatology changes on regional climate, the significance of perturbation changes is still debated. The nonlinear effect of these two changes is also unknown. We propose a systematic procedure that extracts the influences of three factors: changes in climatology, changes in perturbation and the resulting nonlinear effect. We then demonstrate the usefulness of the procedure, applying it to future changes in precipitation. All three factors have the same degree of influence, especially for extreme rainfall events. Thus, regional climate assessments should consider not only the climatology change but also the perturbation change and their nonlinearity. This procedure can advance interpretations of future regional climates.

  5. Holocene Substrate Influences on Plant and Fire Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briles, C.; Whitlock, C. L.

    2011-12-01

    The role of substrates in facilitating plant responses to climate change in the past has received little attention. Ecological studies, documenting the relative role of fertile and infertile substrates in mediating the effects of climate change, lack the temporal information that paleoecological lake studies provide on how plants have responded under equal, larger and more rapid past climate events than today. In this paper, pollen and macroscopic charcoal preserved in the sediments of eight lakes surrounded by infertile ultramafic soils and more fertile soils in the Klamath Mountains of northern California were analyzed. Comparison of late-Quaternary paleoecological sites suggests that infertile and fertile substrates supported distinctly different plant communities. Trees and shrubs on infertile substrates were less responsive to climate change than those on fertile substrates, with the only major compositional change occurring at the glacial/interglacial transition (~11.5ka), when temperature rose 5oC. Trees and shrubs on fertile substrates were more responsive to climate changes, and tracked climate by moving along elevational gradients, including during more recent climate events such as the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly. Fire regimes were similar until 4ka on both substrate types. After 4ka, understory fuels on infertile substrates became sparse and fire activity decreased, while on fertile substrates forests became increasingly denser and fire activity increased. The complacency of plant communities on infertile sites to climate change contrasts with the individualistic and rapid adjustments of species on fertile sites. The findings differ from observations on shorter time scales that show the most change in herb cover and richness in the last 60 years on infertile substrates. Thus, the paleorecord provides unique long-term ecological data necessary to evaluate the response of plants to future climate change under different levels of soil

  6. The Influence of Climate Change Considerations on Energy Policy. The Case of Russia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markandya, A.; Golub, A.; Strukova, E.

    2003-10-01

    To those working on climate change it is obvious that energy policy should be influenced by climate change considerations. The question that this paper seeks to answer is, to what extent do they influence policy and what contribution can a careful analysis of the costs and benefits of climate change options have on the formulation of that policy. We seek to understand this by looking in some detail at energy policy formulation in Russia. To do so it is necessary to look at the whole set of issues that determine energy policy. These include energy security, macroeconomic and uncertainty factors, local environmental issues and social issues. The analysis has been carried out for a specific case - that of the RF, where energy policy is currently under formulation to 2010. Two options have been looked at: a 'High Coal' option, where there would be a substantial change in fuel mix away from gas to coal; and a 'High Gas' option where the current fuel mix is retained and the increase in demand is met from all sources in proportion to current use. The analysis shows that, at international prices for fuels, the 'High Coal' option is attractive. However, when we include the potential decline of price for natural gas in the European market, the relative preference for this option drops dramatically but it still remains the preferred option. When, account is also taken of the carbon benefits of the High Gas option, using plausible values for carbon, the attraction of the High Coal option is further reduced but not altered. When finally account is taken of the health associated with the lower use of coal in the High Gas option, the preference can be reversed but it requires a critical value for the health benefits. This critical value - at around USD 3,000 for a life year lost - is plausible for the RF, if anything the actual value is probably higher. What the analysis shows is the need for a careful evaluation of the different factors determining energy policy. Among these is

  7. How does complex terrain influence responses of carbon and water cycle processes to climate variability and climate change? (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond, B. J.; Peterson, K.; McKane, R.; Lajtha, K.; Quandt, D. J.; Allen, S. T.; Sell, S.; Daly, C.; Harmon, M. E.; Johnson, S. L.; Spies, T.; Sollins, P.; Abdelnour, A. G.; Stieglitz, M.

    2010-12-01

    We are pursuing the ambitious goal of understanding how complex terrain influences the responses of carbon and water cycle processes to climate variability and climate change. Our studies take place in H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, an LTER (Long Term Ecological Research) site situated in Oregon’s central-western Cascade Range. Decades of long-term measurements and intensive research have revealed influences of topography on vegetation patterns, disturbance history, and hydrology. More recent research has shown surprising interactions between microclimates and synoptic weather patterns due to cold air drainage and pooling in mountain valleys. Using these data and insights, in addition to a recent LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) reconnaissance and a small sensor network, we are employing process-based models, including “SPA” (Soil-Plant-Atmosphere, developed by Mathew Williams of the University of Edinburgh), and “VELMA” (Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Alternatives, developed by Marc Stieglitz and colleagues of the Georgia Institute of Technology) to focus on two important features of mountainous landscapes: heterogeneity (both spatial and temporal) and connectivity (atmosphere-canopy-hillslope-stream). Our research questions include: 1) Do fine-scale spatial and temporal heterogeneity result in emergent properties at the basin scale, and if so, what are they? 2) How does connectivity across ecosystem components affect system responses to climate variability and change? Initial results show that for environmental drivers that elicit non-linear ecosystem responses on the plot scale, such as solar radiation, soil depth and soil water content, fine-scale spatial heterogeneity may produce unexpected emergent properties at larger scales. The results from such modeling experiments are necessarily a function of the supporting algorithms. However, comparisons based on models such as SPA and VELMA that operate at much different spatial scales

  8. Biotic and Biogeochemical Feedbacks to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torn, M. S.; Harte, J.

    2002-12-01

    Feedbacks to paleoclimate change are evident in ice core records showing correlations of temperature with carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane. Such feedbacks may be explained by plant and microbial responses to climate change, and are likely to occur under impending climate warming, as evidenced by results of ecosystem climate manipulation experiments and biometeorological observations along ecological and climate gradients. Ecosystems exert considerable influence on climate, by controlling the energy and water balance of the land surface as well as being sinks and sources of greenhouse gases. This presentation will focus on biotic and biogeochemical climate feedbacks on decadal to century time scales, emphasizing carbon storage and energy exchange. In addition to the direct effects of climate on decomposition rates and of climate and CO2 on plant productivity, climate change can alter species composition; because plant species differ in their surface properties, productivity, phenology, and chemistry, climate-induced changes in plant species composition can exert a large influence on the magnitude and sign of climate feedbacks. We discuss the effects of plant species on ecosystem carbon storage that result from characteristic differences in plant biomass and lifetime, allocation to roots vs. leaves, litter quality, microclimate for decomposition and the ultimate stabilization of soil organic matter. We compare the effect of species transitions on transpiration, albedo, and other surface properties, with the effect of elevated CO2 and warming on single species' surface exchange. Global change models and experiments that investigate the effect of climate only on existing vegetation may miss the biggest impacts of climate change on biogeochemical cycling and feedbacks. Quantification of feedbacks will require understanding how species composition and long-term soil processes will change under global warming. Although no single approach, be it experimental

  9. Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, Katherine [National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (United States)

    2016-03-31

    A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine concludes it is now possible to estimate the influence of climate change on some types of extreme events. The science of extreme event attribution has advanced rapidly in recent years, giving new insight to the ways that human-caused climate change can influence the magnitude or frequency of some extreme weather events. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. Confidence is strongest in attributing types of extreme events that are influenced by climate change through a well-understood physical mechanism, such as, the more frequent heat waves that are closely connected to human-caused global temperature increases, the report finds. Confidence is lower for other types of events, such as hurricanes, whose relationship to climate change is more complex and less understood at present. For any extreme event, the results of attribution studies hinge on how questions about the event's causes are posed, and on the data, modeling approaches, and statistical tools chosen for the analysis.

  10. The effects of climatic conditions on attitudinal changes towards ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    changes associated with climate change and climatic events. The .... influence of rainfall on differences in perceptions towards building materials in poor ...... in the form of flash floods, cloud bursts, or sudden climatic events. Unusually high or ...

  11. Climate change in China and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luo Y.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Since the first assessment report (FAR of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC in 1990, the international scientific community has made substantial progresses in climate change sciences. Changes in components of climate system, including the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, indicate that global warming is unequivocal. Instrumental records demonstrate that the global mean temperature has a significant increasing trend during the 20th century and in the latest 50 years the warming become faster. In the meantime, the global sea level has a strong increasing trend, as well as the snow coverage of Northern Hemisphere showed an obvious downward trend. Moreover, the global warming plays a key role in significantly affecting the climate system and social-economy on both global and regional scales, such as sea level rise, melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets, desertification, deforestation, increase of weather extremes (typhoon, hurricane and rainstorm and so on. The state of the art understanding of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 was most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in the concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Climate change issues, as a grave challenge to the sustainable development of the human society, have received ever greater attention from the international community. Deeply cognizant of the complexity and extensive influence of these issues and fully aware of the arduousness and urgency of the task of addressing climate change, the Chinese government is determined to address climate change in the process of pursuing sustainable development. The facts of climate change in China and its impacts, and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change are introduced in this paper.

  12. The influence of human activity in the Arctic on climate and climate impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huntington, H.P. [23834 The Clearing Dr., Eagle River, AK 99577 (United States); Boyle, M. [Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6S 1K4 (Canada); Flowers, G.E. [Department of Earth Sciences, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6 (Canada); Weatherly, J.W. [Snow and Ice Division, Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, 72 Lyme Road, Hanover, NH 03755 (United States); Hamilton, L.C. [Department of Sociology, University of New Hampshire, 20 College Road, Durham, NH 03824 (United States); Hinzman, L. [Water and Environment Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, P.O. Box 755860, Fairbanks, AK 99775 (United States); Gerlach, C. [Department of Anthropology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, P.O. Box 757720, Fairbanks, AK 99775 (United States); Zulueta, R. [Department of Biology, Global Change Research Group, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive, PS-240, San Diego, CA 92182 (United States); Nicolson, C. [Department of Natural Resources Conservation, University of Massachusetts, 160 Holdsworth Way, Amherst, MA , 01003 (United States); Overpeck, J. [Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, University of Arizona, 715 North Park Avenue, 2nd Floor, Tucson, AZ, 85721 (United States)

    2007-05-15

    Human activities in the Arctic are often mentioned as recipients of climate-change impacts. In this paper we consider the more complicated but more likely possibility that human activities themselves can interact with climate or environmental change in ways that either mitigate or exacerbate the human impacts. Although human activities in the Arctic are generally assumed to be modest, our analysis suggests that those activities may have larger influences on the arctic system than previously thought. Moreover, human influences could increase substantially in the near future. First, we illustrate how past human activities in the Arctic have combined with climatic variations to alter biophysical systems upon which fisheries and livestock depend. Second, we describe how current and future human activities could precipitate or affect the timing of major transitions in the arctic system. Past and future analyses both point to ways in which human activities in the Arctic can substantially influence the trajectory of arctic system change.

  13. Images of climate change - a pilot study of young people's perceptions of ICT-based climate visualization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ballantyne, Anne Gammelgaard; Wibeck, Victoria; Neset, Tina-Simone

    2016-01-01

    to add interactive elements should be further explored, as interaction has the potential to influence meaning-making processes. In addition, audiences’ preconceptions of climate change influence their interpretations of climate messages, which may function as a constraint to climate communication....

  14. Ocean Observations of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Don

    2016-01-01

    The ocean influences climate by storing and transporting large amounts of heat, freshwater, and carbon, and exchanging these properties with the atmosphere. About 93% of the excess heat energy stored by the earth over the last 50 years is found in the ocean. More than three quarters of the total exchange of water between the atmosphere and the earth's surface through evaporation and precipitation takes place over the oceans. The ocean contains 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere and is at present acting to slow the rate of climate change by absorbing one quarter of human emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, cement production, deforestation and other land use change.Here I summarize the observational evidence of change in the ocean, with an emphasis on basin- and global-scale changes relevant to climate. These include: changes in subsurface ocean temperature and heat content, evidence for regional changes in ocean salinity and their link to changes in evaporation and precipitation over the oceans, evidence of variability and change of ocean current patterns relevant to climate, observations of sea level change and predictions over the next century, and biogeochemical changes in the ocean, including ocean acidification.

  15. Updating beliefs and combining evidence in adaptive forest management under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yousefpour, Rasoul; Temperli, Christian; Bugmann, Harald

    2013-01-01

    We study climate uncertainty and how managers' beliefs about climate change develop and influence their decisions. We develop an approach for updating knowledge and beliefs based on the observation of forest and climate variables and illustrate its application for the adaptive management of an even...... variables may influence a decision maker's beliefs about climate development and thereby management decisions. While forest managers may be inclined to rely on observed forest variables to infer climate change and impacts, we found that observation of climate state, e.g. temperature or precipitation...... on when managers switch to forward-looking management schemes. Thus, robust climate adaptation policies may depend crucially on a better understanding of what factors influence managers' belief in climate change....

  16. How does epistemological knowledge on modelling influence students' engagement in the issue of climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tasquier, Giulia

    2016-05-01

    Involvement in climate change has been proven to be hindered by emotional and social barriers, as well as by conceptual difficulties that students may encounter in dealing with scientific content related to particular issues such as the greenhouse effect. In this study, we start from the conjecture that behind many conceptual difficulties and emotional barriers lie particular epistemological obstacles related to a naive and stereotypical view of science. These include, in particular, the belief that science still has the role and power to provide a unique, unquestionable, and certain explanation of events and processes. Such a naive idea clashes strongly with the intrinsic complexity of climate science. This paper sets out to investigate if and how the improvement of epistemological knowledge can influence behavioural habits and foster students' engagement in climate change. In order to explore such an issue, we focus on five interviews collected at the end of a teaching experience on climate change, carried out with secondary school students (grade 11; 16-year olds). This study is a follow-up of other two analytical studies aimed at investigating, respectively, the impact of the experience on students' epistemological knowledge and on their behavioural habits.

  17. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change : Letter

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Supit, I.

    2013-01-01

    Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic

  18. Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Michael L; Batllori, Enric; Moritz, Max A; Waller, Eric K; Berck, Peter; Flint, Alan L; Flint, Lorraine E; Dolfi, Emmalee

    2016-01-01

    The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

  19. Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael L Mann

    Full Text Available The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively. Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

  20. Adaptation to climate change and climate variability in European agriculture: The importance of farm level responses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, P.; Ewert, F.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Leemans, R.

    2010-01-01

    Climatic conditions and hence climate change influence agriculture. Most studies that addressed the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change have focused on potential impacts without considering adaptation. When adaptation strategies are considered, socio-economic conditions and farm

  1. Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate

  2. Modelling the influence of changing climate in present and future marine eutrophication impacts from spring barley production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cosme, Nuno Miguel Dias; Niero, Monia

    2017-01-01

    Nitrate concentration and runoff are site-specific and driven by climatic factors and crop management. As such, nitrate emissions may increase in the future due to climate change, affecting the marine eutrophication mechanism. In this context, and considering the case of spring barley production...... of different normalisation references when comparing future Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) scenarios with current production systems. A parameterised characterisation model was developed to gauge the influence of future climatic-driven pressures on the marine eutrophication impact pathway. Spatial differentiation...

  3. Fisheries: climate change impacts and adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    The report entitled Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation : A Canadian Perspective, presents a summary of research regarding the impacts of climate change on key sectors over the past five years as it relates to Canada. This chapter on fisheries focuses on the impact of climate change on Canada's marine and freshwater fisheries, and the role of adaptation in reducing the vulnerability of the sector. Canadian fisheries encompass the Atlantic, Pacific and Arctic oceans as well as freshwater systems. Fish health, productivity and distribution is strongly influenced by climatic factors such as air and water temperature, precipitation and wind. Most fish species have a distinct set of environmental conditions for optimal growth and survival. If the conditions change in response to changing climate, the fish may be affected. Some of the impacts include reduced growth, increased competition, a shift in species distribution, greater susceptibility to disease, and altered ecosystem function. Studies show that in some areas, fisheries may already be experiencing the effect of climate change. Recommendations were suggested on how to deal with the impacts associated with climate change in sensitive environments. It was noted that actions taken in the fisheries sector will have implications for the water resources, transportation, tourism and human health sectors. 103 refs., 2 tabs., 6 figs

  4. Upgrade and Design of Coastal Structures Exposed to Climate Changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Jørgen Quvang Harck

    This thesis "Upgrade and Design of Coastal Structures Exposed to Climate Changes" evaluates the performance of existing types of structures when exposed to climate changes. This includes also the potential of using cost‐sharing multipurpose structures for protection against the effects of future...... climate changes. The thesis consists of three parts. The first part evaluates the performance of existing design formulae for estimation of wave actions on structures, especially in shallow water since these structures are most vulnerable to the rising sea water levels caused by climate changes. Existing...... of coastal protection structures, which are extended to a wider range of wave conditions, and which can be used to more accurately estimate the influence from climate changes. In the second part of the thesis, the extended and modified formulae are used in case studies to evaluate the influence from climate...

  5. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  6. The influence of climate changes on carbon cycle in the russian forests. Data inventory and long-scale model prognoses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kokorin, A.O.; Nazarov, I.M.; Lelakin, A.L. [Inst. Global Climate and Ecology, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    1995-12-31

    The growing up climate changes arise the question about reaction of forests. Forests cover 770 Mha in Russia and are giant carbon reservoir. Climate changes cause disbalance in carbon budget that give additional CO{sub 2} exchange between forests and the atmosphere. The aim of the work is estimation of these fluxes. This problem is directly connected with an GHG inventory, vulnerability and mitigation assessment, which are necessary for future Russian Reports to UN FCCC. The work includes the following steps: (1) Collection of literature data as well as processing of the experimental data on influence of climate changes on forests, (2) Calculation of carbon budget as base for calculations of CO{sub 2} fluxes, (3) Developing of new version of CCBF (Carbon and Climate in Boreal Forests) model, (4) Model estimations of current and future CO{sub 2} fluxes caused by climate changes, forest cuttings, fires and reforestation

  7. The influence of climate changes on carbon cycle in the russian forests. Data inventory and long-scale model prognoses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kokorin, A O; Nazarov, I M; Lelakin, A L [Inst. Global Climate and Ecology, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    1996-12-31

    The growing up climate changes arise the question about reaction of forests. Forests cover 770 Mha in Russia and are giant carbon reservoir. Climate changes cause disbalance in carbon budget that give additional CO{sub 2} exchange between forests and the atmosphere. The aim of the work is estimation of these fluxes. This problem is directly connected with an GHG inventory, vulnerability and mitigation assessment, which are necessary for future Russian Reports to UN FCCC. The work includes the following steps: (1) Collection of literature data as well as processing of the experimental data on influence of climate changes on forests, (2) Calculation of carbon budget as base for calculations of CO{sub 2} fluxes, (3) Developing of new version of CCBF (Carbon and Climate in Boreal Forests) model, (4) Model estimations of current and future CO{sub 2} fluxes caused by climate changes, forest cuttings, fires and reforestation

  8. Solar influence on Earth's climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marsh, N.; Svensmark, Henrik

    2003-01-01

    An increasing number of studies indicate that variations in solar activity have had a significant influence on Earth's climate. However, the mechanisms responsible for a solar influence are still not known. One possibility is that atmospheric transparency is influenced by changing cloud properties...... and thereby influence the radiative properties of clouds. If the GCR-Cloud link is confirmed variations in galactic cosmic ray flux, caused by changes in solar activity and the space environment, could influence Earth's radiation budget....... via cosmic ray ionisation (the latter being modulated by solar activity). Support for this idea is found from satellite observations of cloud cover. Such data have revealed a striking correlation between the intensity of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and low liquid clouds (

  9. Contribution of human and climate change impacts to changes in streamflow of Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew

    2015-12-04

    Climate change exerts great influence on streamflow by changing precipitation, temperature, snowpack and potential evapotranspiration (PET), while human activities in a watershed can directly alter the runoff production and indirectly through affecting climatic variables. However, to separate contribution of anthropogenic and natural drivers to observed changes in streamflow is non-trivial. Here we estimated the direct influence of human activities and climate change effect to changes of the mean annual streamflow (MAS) of 96 Canadian watersheds based on the elasticity of streamflow in relation to precipitation, PET and human impacts such as land use and cover change. Elasticities of streamflow for each watershed are analytically derived using the Budyko Framework. We found that climate change generally caused an increase in MAS, while human impacts generally a decrease in MAS and such impact tends to become more severe with time, even though there are exceptions. Higher proportions of human contribution, compared to that of climate change contribution, resulted in generally decreased streamflow of Canada observed in recent decades. Furthermore, if without contributions from retreating glaciers to streamflow, human impact would have resulted in a more severe decrease in Canadian streamflow.

  10. Climate, Companies, and Public Policy: How Transparent Is the Private Sector in Reporting Climate Policy Influence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldman, G. T.; Carlson, C.

    2014-12-01

    To enact effective policies to address climate change, decision makers need both scientific and political support. One major barrier to U.S. climate policy enactment has been the opposition of private sector actors to proposed policies and to climate science itself. Increasingly, the public and investors are holding companies accountable for their actions around climate change—including political activies, affiliations with trade groups, and involvement with climate science. However, this accountability is inhibited by the prominent role that trade associations have played in climate policy debates in recent years. The opaque nature of such groups is problematic, as it inhibits the public from understanding who is obstructing progress on addressing climate change, and in some cases, impedes the public's climate literacy. Voluntary climate reporting can yield some information on companies' climate engagement and demonstrates the need for greater transparency in corporate political activities around climate change. We analyze CDP climate reporting data from 1,824 companies to assess the degree to which corporate actors disclosed their political influence on climate policies through their trade associations. Results demonstrate the limitations of voluntary reporting and the extent to which companies utilize their trade associations to influence climate change policy debates without being held accountable for these positions. Notably, many companies failed to acknowledge their board seat on trade groups with significant climate policy engagement. Of those that did acknowledge their board membership, some claimed not to agree with their trade associations' positions on climate change. These results raise questions about who trade groups are representing when they challenge the science or obstruct policies to address climate change. Recommendations for overcoming this barrier to informed decision making to address climate change will be discussed.

  11. The impacts of past climate change on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bradshaw, R.H.W.; Anderson, N.J.

    2001-01-01

    The last two million years of global history have been dominated by the impacts of rapid climate change. This influence is not immediately obvious to most biologists whose observations rarely extend beyond a period of a few years, but becomes apparent when interpreting long-term data sets whether they be population studies or palaeoecological data. It is appropriate therefore to consider how terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems have responded to climate change during the Quaternary when speculating about response to future climatic developments. In this chapter we discuss and illustrate the complex interactions between climate and anthropogenic influence on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems during the Holocene. Climate influences ecosystems both directly (e.g. physiological responses or lake thermal stratification) and indirectly (e.g. via fire frequency or catchment hydrology). Lake sediments can be used to study both past climatic change directly and the effects of past climatic variability. In this chapter we present summary examples of the influence of past climate change on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems as well showing how lake sediment records can provide proxy records of past climate change. The geological record from the last 18 000 years documents large changes in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems that are primarily driven by climatic change, but are modified by internal ecosystem processes. These changes are comparable in magnitude and rapidity to those predicted for the near future. Species at their distributional limits are particularly sensitive to climate change and contractions of range can be sudden in response to extreme climatic events such as the storm of December 1999 that damaged Picea trees far more than tree species that lay within their natural range limits. Palaeoecological records provide compelling evidence for direct climate forcing of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems but importantly also permit comparative analyses of impacts

  12. Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Giorgi, Filippo

    2012-01-10

    We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots throughout the 21 st century of the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 forcing pathways. In addition, areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, the Arctic, and Central America/western North America also emerge as prominent regional climate change hotspots in response to intermediate and high levels of forcing. Comparisons of different periods of the two forcing pathways suggest that the pattern of aggregate change is fairly robust to the level of global warming below approximately 2°C of global warming (relative to the late-20 th -century baseline), but not at the higher levels of global warming that occur in the late-21 st -century period of the RCP8.5 pathway, with areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Arctic exhibiting particular intensification of relative aggregate climate change in response to high levels of forcing. Although specific impacts will clearly be shaped by the interaction of climate change with human and biological vulnerabilities, our identification of climate change hotspots can help to inform mitigation and adaptation decisions by quantifying the rate, magnitude and causes of the aggregate climate response in different parts of the world.

  13. Global Climate Change, Food Security and the U.S. Food System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly Elizabeth; Walsh, Margaret; Hauser, Rachel; Murray, Anthony; Jadin, Jenna; Baklund, Peter; Robinson, Paula

    2013-01-01

    Climate change influences on the major pillars of food security. Each of the four elements of food security (availability,access,utilization,andstability) is vulnerable to changes in climate. For example,reductions in production related to regional drought influence food availability at multiple scales. Changes in price influences the ability of certain populations to purchase food (access). Utilization maybe affected when production zones shift, reducing the availability of preferred or culturally appropriate types of food within a region. Stability of the food supply may be highly uncertain given an increased incidence of extreme climatic events and their influence on production patterns.

  14. Exploring the Multifaceted Topic of Climate Change in Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

    2015-12-01

    As the effects of climate change become more profound, climate literacy becomes increasingly important. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) responds to this need through the publication of Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate. Both publications incorporate the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the USGCRP's Third National Climate Assessment. Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive, multidisciplinary information related to various topics. Additionally, each chapter closes with a For Further Exploration essay, which addresses specific topics that complement a chapter concept. Web Resources, which encourage additional exploration of chapter content, and Scientific Literature, from which chapter content was derived can also be found at the conclusion of each chapter. Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics, including the scientific principles that govern Earth's climate system and basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate the system. Released in fall 2015, Living With Our Changing Climate takes a more narrow approach and investigates human and ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change, the role of energy choices in affecting climate, actions humans can take through adaption, mitigation, and policy to lessen vulnerabilities, and psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial. While Living With Our Changing Climate is intended for programs looking to add a climate element into their curriculum, Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course. In a 2015 survey of California University of Pennsylvania undergraduate students using Our Changing Climate, 82% found it comfortable to read and utilized its interactive components and resources. Both ebooks illuminate the multidisciplinary aspect of climate change, providing the opportunity for a more sustainable future.

  15. Climate change driven plant-metal-microbe interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajkumar, Mani; Prasad, Majeti Narasimha Vara; Swaminathan, Sandhya; Freitas, Helena

    2013-03-01

    Various biotic and abiotic stress factors affect the growth and productivity of crop plants. Particularly, the climatic and/or heavy metal stress influence various processes including growth, physiology, biochemistry, and yield of crops. Climatic changes particularly the elevated atmospheric CO₂ enhance the biomass production and metal accumulation in plants and help plants to support greater microbial populations and/or protect the microorganisms against the impacts of heavy metals. Besides, the indirect effects of climatic change (e.g., changes in the function and structure of plant roots and diversity and activity of rhizosphere microbes) would lead to altered metal bioavailability in soils and concomitantly affect plant growth. However, the effects of warming, drought or combined climatic stress on plant growth and metal accumulation vary substantially across physico-chemico-biological properties of the environment (e.g., soil pH, heavy metal type and its bio-available concentrations, microbial diversity, and interactive effects of climatic factors) and plant used. Overall, direct and/or indirect effects of climate change on heavy metal mobility in soils may further hinder the ability of plants to adapt and make them more susceptible to stress. Here, we review and discuss how the climatic parameters including atmospheric CO₂, temperature and drought influence the plant-metal interaction in polluted soils. Other aspects including the effects of climate change and heavy metals on plant-microbe interaction, heavy metal phytoremediation and safety of food and feed are also discussed. This review shows that predicting how plant-metal interaction responds to altering climatic change is critical to select suitable crop plants that would be able to produce more yields and tolerate multi-stress conditions without accumulating toxic heavy metals for future food security. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Climate Changes and Their Impact on Agricultural Market Systems: Examples from Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Karin Barrueto

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Global climate models foresee changes in temperature and precipitation regimes that shift regional climate zones and influence the viability of agricultural market systems. Understanding the influence of climate change on the different sub-sectors and functions of a market system is crucial to increasing the systems’ climate resilience and to ensuring the long-term viability of the sectors. Our research applies a new approach to climate change analysis to better understand the influence of climate change on each step of an agricultural market system—on its core (processing units, storage facilities and sales and support functions (sapling supply, research, insurance and agricultural policy. We use spatial climate analyses to investigate current and projected changes in climate for different regions in Nepal. We then analyse the risks and vulnerabilities of the sub-sectors banana, charcoal, coffee, macadamia, orange, vegetables and walnut. Our results show that temperatures and precipitation levels will change differently depending on the climatic regions, and that climate change elicits different responses from the market functions both between and within each of the different sub-sectors. We conclude that climate-related interventions in market systems must account for each different market function’s specific response and exposure to climate change, in order to select adaptation measures that ensure long-term climate resilience.

  17. Eye tracking and climate change: How is climate literacy information processed?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C. C.; McNeal, K. S.

    2011-12-01

    The population of the Southeastern United States is perceived to be resistant to information regarding global climate change. The Climate Literacy Partnership in the Southeast (CLiPSE) project was formed to provide a resource for climate science information. As part of this project, we are evaluating the way that education materials influence the interpretation of climate change related information. At Mississippi State University, a study is being conducted examining how individuals from the Southeastern United States process climate change information and whether or not the interaction with such information impacts the interpretation of subsequent climate change related information. By observing the patterns both before and after an educational intervention, we are able to evaluate the effectiveness of the climate change information on an individual's interpretation of related information. Participants in this study view figures describing various types of climate change related information (CO2 emissions, sea levels, etc.) while their eye movements are tracked to determine a baseline for the way that they process this type of graphical data. Specifically, we are examining time spent viewing and number of fixations on critical portions of the figures prior to exposure to an educational document on climate change. Following the baseline period, we provide participants with portions of a computerized version of Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences that the participants read at their own pace while their eye movements are monitored. Participants are told that they will be given a test on the material after reading the resource. After reading the excerpt, participants are presented with a new set of climate change related figures to interpret (with eye tracking) along with a series of questions regarding information contained in the resource. We plan to evaluate changes that occur in the way that climate change related information is

  18. Market Strategies for Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J. [Business School, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2004-06-01

    The issue of climate change has attracted increasing business attention in the past decade. Whereas companies initially aimed primarily at influencing the policy debate, corporate strategies increasingly include economic responses. Existing classifications for climate change strategies however still reflect the political, non-market components. Using empirical information from the largest multinational companies worldwide, this article examines current market responses, focusing on the drivers (threats and opportunities) and the actions being taken by companies to address climate change. It also develops a typology of climate strategies that addresses the market dimensions, covering both the aim (strategic intent) and the degree of cooperation (form of organisation). The aim turns out to be either innovation or compensation, while the organisational arrangements to reach this objective can be oriented at the company level (internal), at companies' own supply chain (vertical) or at cooperation with other companies (competitors or companies in other sectors - horizontal). The typology can assist managers in deciding about the strategic option(s) they want to choose regarding climate change, also based on the insights offered by the paper about the current state of activities of other companies worldwide.

  19. Long-term trends in tourism climate index scores for 40 stations across Iran: the role of climate change and influence on tourism sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roshan, Gholamreza; Yousefi, Robabe; Fitchett, Jennifer M

    2016-01-01

    Tourism is a rapidly growing international sector and relies intrinsically on an amenable climate to attract visitors. Climate change is likely to influence the locations preferred by tourists and the time of year of peak travel. This study investigates the effect of climate change on the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) for Iran. The paper first calculates the monthly TCI for 40 cities across Iran for each year from 1961 to 2010. Changes in the TCI over the study period for each of the cities are then explored. Increases in TCI are observed for at least one station in each month, whilst for some months no decreases occurred. For October, the maximum of 45% of stations demonstrated significant changes in TCI, whilst for December only 10% of stations demonstrated change. The stations Kashan, Orumiyeh, Shahrekord, Tabriz, Torbat-e-Heidarieh and Zahedan experienced significant increases in TCI for over 6 months. The beginning of the change in TCI is calculated to have occurred from 1970 to 1980 for all stations. Given the economic dependence on oil exports, the development of sustainable tourism in Iran is of importance. This critically requires the identification of locations most suitable for tourism, now and in the future, to guide strategic investment.

  20. Direct and Indirect Effects of Climate Change on Amphibian Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie S. Gervasi

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available As part of an overall decline in biodiversity, populations of many organisms are declining and species are being lost at unprecedented rates around the world. This includes many populations and species of amphibians. Although numerous factors are affecting amphibian populations, we show potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibians at the individual, population and community level. Shifts in amphibian ranges are predicted. Changes in climate may affect survival, growth, reproduction and dispersal capabilities. Moreover, climate change can alter amphibian habitats including vegetation, soil, and hydrology. Climate change can influence food availability, predator-prey relationships and competitive interactions which can alter community structure. Climate change can also alter pathogen-host dynamics and greatly influence how diseases are manifested. Changes in climate can interact with other stressors such as UV-B radiation and contaminants. The interactions among all these factors are complex and are probably driving some amphibian population declines and extinctions.

  1. Case grows for climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hileman, B.

    1999-08-09

    In the four years since the IPCC stated that 'the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate', evidence for anomalous warming has become more compelling, and as a result scientists have become more concerned that human-induced climate change has already arrived. The article summarises recent extra evidence on global temperatures, carbon dioxide measurements, ice shelf breakup, coral bleaching, unstable climates and improved climate models. At the time of the Kyoto conference, the US became keen on the idea that enhancing forest and soil carbon sequestration was a good way to offset emissions reduction targets. Congress is however under the opinion on that the Kyoto protocol presents a threat to the US economy, and senate is very unlikely to ratify the protocol during the Clinton Administration. The debate as to whether the US government should mandate major emission reduction or wait for more scientific certainty may continue for a number of years, but, growing concern of scientists and the public for the harmful effects of climate change may cause a change. 4 figs., 8 photos.

  2. Climate change impacts on global food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

    2013-08-02

    Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

  3. Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Forestry Development in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Forestry and forest ecosystem are highly sensitive to climate change.At present,studies about the responses of forests to climate change in China are more focused on physical influences of climate change.This paper firstly divided the key impact factors of climate change on forest and forestry developing into direct factors and indirect factors,and then made an assessment on climate change affecting future forestry development from the aspect of forest products and ecological services.On this basis,the adap...

  4. Upgrade and Design of Coastal Structures Exposed to Climate Changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Jørgen Quvang Harck

    This thesis “Upgrade and Design of Coastal Structures Exposed to Climate Changes” evaluates the performance of existing types of structures when exposed to climate changes. This includes also the potential of using cost‐sharing multipurpose structures for protection against the effects of future...... climate changes. The thesis consists of three parts. The first part evaluates the performance of existing design formulae for estimation of wave actions on structures, especially in shallow water since these structures are most vulnerable to the rising sea water levels caused by climate changes. Existing...... of coastal protection structures, which are extended to a wider range of wave conditions, and which can be used to more accurately estimate the influence from climate changes. In the second part of the thesis, the extended and modified formulae are used in case studies to evaluate the influence from climate...

  5. Identifying alternate pathways for climate change to impact inland recreational fishers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Len M.; Fenichel, Eli P.; Fulton, David C.; Mendelsohn, Robert; Smith, Jordan W.; Tunney, Tyler D.; Lynch, Abigail J.; Paukert, Craig P.; Whitney, James E.

    2016-01-01

    Fisheries and human dimensions literature suggests that climate change influences inland recreational fishers in North America through three major pathways. The most widely recognized pathway suggests that climate change impacts habitat and fish populations (e.g., water temperature impacting fish survival) and cascades to impact fishers. Climate change also impacts recreational fishers by influencing environmental conditions that directly affect fishers (e.g., increased temperatures in northern climates resulting in extended open water fishing seasons and increased fishing effort). The final pathway occurs from climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts (e.g., refined energy policies result in higher fuel costs, making distant trips more expensive). To address limitations of past research (e.g., assessing climate change impacts for only one pathway at a time and not accounting for climate variability, extreme weather events, or heterogeneity among fishers), we encourage researchers to refocus their efforts to understand and document climate change impacts to inland fishers.

  6. [The warning model and influence of climatic changes on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Changsha city].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Hong; Tian, Huai-yu; Zhang, Xi-xing; Zhao, Jian; Zhu, Pei-juan; Liu, Ru-chun; Chen, Tian-mu; Dai, Xiang-yu; Lin, Xiao-ling

    2011-10-01

    To realize the influence of climatic changes on the transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), and to explore the adoption of climatic factors in warning HFRS. A total of 2171 cases of HFRS and the synchronous climatic data in Changsha from 2000 to 2009 were collected to a climate-based forecasting model for HFRS transmission. The Cochran-Armitage trend test was employed to explore the variation trend of the annual incidence of HFRS. Cross-correlations analysis was then adopted to assess the time-lag period between the climatic factors, including monthly average temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and Multivariate Elño-Southern Oscillation Index (MEI) and the monthly HFRS cases. Finally the time-series Poisson regression model was constructed to analyze the influence of different climatic factors on the HFRS transmission. The annual incidence of HFRS in Changsha between 2000 - 2009 was 13.09/100 000 (755 cases), 9.92/100 000 (578 cases), 5.02/100 000 (294 cases), 2.55/100 000 (150 cases), 1.13/100 000 (67 cases), 1.16/100 000 (70 cases), 0.95/100 000 (58 cases), 1.40/100 000 (87 cases), 0.75/100 000 (47 cases) and 1.02/100 000 (65 cases), respectively. The incidence showed a decline during these years (Z = -5.78, P Climate factors significantly influence the incidence of HFRS. If the influence of variable-autocorrelation, seasonality, and long-term trend were controlled, the accuracy of forecasting by the time-series Poisson regression model in Changsha would be comparatively high, and we could forecast the incidence of HFRS in advance.

  7. Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...

  8. How does epistemological knowledge on modelling influence students' engagement in the issue of climate change?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tasquier, Giulia

    2015-01-01

    Involvement in climate change has been proven to be hindered by emotional and social barriers, as well as by conceptual difficulties that students may encounter in dealing with scientific content related to particular issues such as the greenhouse effect. In this study, we start from the conjecture that behind many conceptual difficulties and emotional barriers lie particular epistemological obstacles related to a naive and stereotypical view of science. These include, in particular, the belief that science still has the role and power to provide a unique, unquestionable, and certain explanation of events and processes. Such a naive idea clashes strongly with the intrinsic complexity of climate science. This paper sets out to investigate if and how the improvement of epistemological knowledge can influence behavioural habits and foster students’ engagement in climate change. In order to explore such an issue, we focus on five interviews collected at the end of a teaching experience on climate change, carried out with secondary school students (grade 11; 16-year olds). This study is a follow-up of other two analytical studies aimed at investigating, respectively, the impact of the experience on students’ epistemological knowledge and on their behavioural habits.

  9. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  10. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate is the average weather in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. ...

  11. Species interactions reverse grassland responses to changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suttle, K B; Thomsen, Meredith A; Power, Mary E

    2007-02-02

    Predictions of ecological response to climate change are based largely on direct climatic effects on species. We show that, in a California grassland, species interactions strongly influence responses to changing climate, overturning direct climatic effects within 5 years. We manipulated the seasonality and intensity of rainfall over large, replicate plots in accordance with projections of leading climate models and examined responses across several trophic levels. Changes in seasonal water availability had pronounced effects on individual species, but as precipitation regimes were sustained across years, feedbacks and species interactions overrode autecological responses to water and reversed community trajectories. Conditions that sharply increased production and diversity through 2 years caused simplification of the food web and deep reductions in consumer abundance after 5 years. Changes in these natural grassland communities suggest a prominent role for species interactions in ecosystem response to climate change.

  12. Influences of Regional Climate Change on Air Quality Across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC AR5 Simulations. Chapter 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolte, Christopher; Otte, Tanya; Pinder, Robert; Bowden, J.; Herwehe, J.; Faluvegi, Gregory; Shindell, Drew

    2013-01-01

    Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the global climate models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture regional-scale changes in temperatures and precipitation. We use a regional climate model (RCM) to dynamically downscale the GCM's large-scale signal to investigate the changes in regional and local extremes of temperature and precipitation that may result from a changing climate. In this paper, we show preliminary results from downscaling the NASA/GISS ModelE IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0 scenario. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices (1995-2005 and 2025-2035) and illustrate potential changes in regional climate for the continental U.S. that are projected by ModelE and WRF under RCP6.0. The regional climate change scenario is further processed using the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system to explore influences of regional climate change on air quality.

  13. 2009 Climate Change Research Strategy: Rocky Mountain Research Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forest Service U.S. Department of Agriculture

    2010-01-01

    Climate change and shifting demographics influence the landscape and the social and economic systems of the Interior West. Climate change impacts are already evident, as seen in declining snowpacks, changes in runoff timing and intensity, increasing fire frequency and severity, increasing drought frequency and severity, and rising temperatures.

  14. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmgren, K; Karlen, W [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography

    1998-12-01

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  15. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmgren, K.; Karlen, W.

    1998-12-01

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  16. Changing habits, changing climate : a foundation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enright, W.

    2001-03-01

    If Canada intends to meet its greenhouse gas reduction target of 6 per cent below 1990 levels, a fundamental shift in energy use by Canadians is required. The health sector will also be required to change. Global climate change is expected to affect regions differently, some might get wetter, some might get warmer, and others still might get colder. Climate changes will influence a number of health determinants: the geographical range of disease organisms and vectors; temperature extremes and violent weather events; air, food and water quality; the stability of ecosystems. There is a requirement to strongly regulate the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases to limit health risks. Increased air pollution could negatively affect large numbers of people, especially asthma sufferers and people suffering from chronic respiratory ailments and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in precipitation and temperature could increase insect-borne diseases. Water sources could be badly affected by drought, flooding or increased glacial runoff. The thinning of the ozone layer could result in additional skin cancers, impaired vision and other diseases. The document explores the various impacts resulting from climate change. A chapter is devoted to each topic: air pollution, temperature extremes, extreme weather events, vector borne diseases, drought and increased evaporation, food supply and ecosystem range, sea level rise, stratospheric ozone depletion and describes the health impacts. In addition, a chapter deals with aboriginal communities. The topic of environmental refugees is discussed, followed by an historical perspective into climate change policy in Canada. The author concludes with adaptation measures. Further emphasis must be placed on priority topics such as the estimation of future emissions and modelling of climate processes. refs., tabs., figs

  17. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Sean A. Parks

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not...

  18. Influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of European cities to flooding during high-intensity precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Skougaard Kaspersen

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The extent and location of impervious surfaces within urban areas due to past and present city development strongly affects the amount and velocity of run-off during high-intensity rainfall and consequently influences the exposure of cities towards flooding. The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall are expected to increase in many places due to climate change and thus further exacerbate the risk of pluvial flooding. This paper presents a combined hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing approach suitable for examining the susceptibility of European cities to pluvial flooding owing to recent changes in urban land cover, under present and future climatic conditions. Estimated changes in impervious urban surfaces based on Landsat satellite imagery covering the period 1984–2014 are combined with regionally downscaled estimates of current and expected future rainfall extremes to enable 2-D overland flow simulations and flood hazard assessments. The methodology is evaluated for the Danish city of Odense. Results suggest that the past 30 years of urban development alone has increased the city's exposure to pluvial flooding by 6% for 10-year rainfall up to 26% for 100-year rainfall. Corresponding estimates for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios (2071–2100 are in the order of 40 and 100%, indicating that land cover changes within cities can play a central role for the cities' exposure to flooding and conversely also for their adaptation to a changed climate.

  19. Influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of European cities to flooding during high-intensity precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skougaard Kaspersen, P.; Høegh Ravn, N.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Madsen, H.; Drews, M.

    2015-06-01

    The extent and location of impervious surfaces within urban areas due to past and present city development strongly affects the amount and velocity of run-off during high-intensity rainfall and consequently influences the exposure of cities towards flooding. The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall are expected to increase in many places due to climate change and thus further exacerbate the risk of pluvial flooding. This paper presents a combined hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing approach suitable for examining the susceptibility of European cities to pluvial flooding owing to recent changes in urban land cover, under present and future climatic conditions. Estimated changes in impervious urban surfaces based on Landsat satellite imagery covering the period 1984-2014 are combined with regionally downscaled estimates of current and expected future rainfall extremes to enable 2-D overland flow simulations and flood hazard assessments. The methodology is evaluated for the Danish city of Odense. Results suggest that the past 30 years of urban development alone has increased the city's exposure to pluvial flooding by 6% for 10-year rainfall up to 26% for 100-year rainfall. Corresponding estimates for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios (2071-2100) are in the order of 40 and 100%, indicating that land cover changes within cities can play a central role for the cities' exposure to flooding and conversely also for their adaptation to a changed climate.

  20. CLIMATE CHANGE, Change International Negociations?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Xiaosheng

    2009-01-01

    @@ Climate change is one of key threats to human beings who have to deal with.According to Bali Action Plan released after the 2007 Bali Climate Talk held in Indonesia,the United Nations Framework on Climate Change(UNFCCC) has launched a two-year process to negotiate a post-2012 climate arrangement after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 and the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference will seal a final deal on post-2012 climate regime in December,2009.For this,the United Nation Chief Ban Ki Moon called 2009"the year ofclimate change".

  1. Does it matter if people think climate change is human caused?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel Hartter

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available There is a growing consensus that climate is changing, but beliefs about the causal factors vary widely among the general public. Current research shows that such causal beliefs are strongly influenced by cultural, political, and identity-driven views. We examined the influence that local perceptions have on the acceptance of basic facts about climate change. We also examined the connection to wildfire by local people. Two recent telephone surveys found that 37% (in 2011 and 46% (in 2014 of eastern Oregon (USA respondents accept the scientific consensus that human activities are now changing the climate. Although most do not agree with that consensus, large majorities (85–86% do agree that climate is changing, whether by natural or human causes. Acceptance of anthropogenic climate change generally divides along political party lines, but acceptance of climate change more generally, and concerns about wildfire, transcend political divisions. Support for active forest management to reduce wildfire risks is strong in this region, and restoration treatments could be critical to the resilience of both communities and ecosystems. Although these immediate steps involve adaptations to a changing climate, they can be motivated without necessarily invoking human-caused climate change, a divisive concept among local landowners. Keywords: Climate change, Inland West, Public perception, Telephone survey, Wildfire, Working landscapes

  2. Do pollution and climate influence respiratory tract infections in children?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saulo Duarte Passos

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available To review if pollution and climate changes can influence respiratory tract infections in children. Data source: articles published on the subject in PubMed, SciELO, Bireme, EBSCO and UpTodate were reviewed. The following inclusion criteria were considered: scientific papers between 2002 and 2012, study design, the pediatric population, reference documents such as the CETESB and World Health Organization Summary of the data: We analyzed research that correlated respiratory viruses and climate and/or pollution changes. Respiratory syncytial virus has been the virus related most to changes in climate and humidity. Other "old and new" respiratory viruses such as Human Bocavirus, Metapneumovirus, Parechovirus and Parainfuenza would need to be investigated owing to their clinical importance. Although much has been studied with regard to the relationship between climate change and public health, specific studies about its influence on children's health remain scarce.

  3. Impact Assessment of Ecosystem Influenced by Changing Global Climate and its National Management Practices II - Focusing on me bioclimatic model development of the forest -

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeon, S.W.; Park, Y.H; Chung, W.C.; Hideo, H.; Kiyoshi, T. [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    2001-12-01

    In order to assess the influences from climate change, lots of studies have been conducted in Asia/Pacific region recently. The analyzed contents in these studies have a wide range of uncertainty even though the results were limited to the direct influences. While the geographical resolutions of various data used in the model are important factors, integration and expansion of the basic physical and biological reactions is another problem. The results from the previous researches suggest that there will be some problems, which are not to reflect the climate change correctly due to the regional small scale and various utilization of land, if data of the existing large-scale influence model is applied to Korea as it is. This study adopts data of 5 large-scale GCM (Global Circulation Model) in order to find the special climate change pattern and estimates the influences from climate change based on the pattern. In the interpretation of the results from this study, therefore, it is necessary to apply the method, which simultaneously analyzes averages and ranges of the estimated influences by 5 GCM, when forecasting influences by scenarios in 2003, the third year of this study. On considering this background, even though the averages and transition ranges of GCM data in this study provide many suggestions for estimating the influences ranges of forest, their application should be conducted after the serious examination because they do not perfectly reflect the regional microclimate. 108 refs., 56 figs., 24 tabs.

  4. The predicted influence of climate change on lesser prairie-chicken reproductive parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grisham, Blake A.; Boal, Clint W.; Haukos, David A.; Davis, D.; Boydston, Kathy K.; Dixon, Charles; Heck, Willard R.

    2013-01-01

    The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001-2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter's linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Nina events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival.

  5. Biodiversity, climate change and poverty: exploring the links

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reid, Hannah; Swiderska, Krystyna

    2008-02-15

    Biodiversity — the variety of all life, from genes and species to ecosystems — is intimately linked to Earth's climate and, inevitably, to climate change. Biodiversity and poverty are also inextricably connected. For instance, changes to natural ecosystems influence both climate change and people's ability to cope with some of its damaging impacts. And in their turn climate change, as well as people's responses to it, affect biodiversity. Unpicking all these strands clearly shows that conserving and managing biodiversity can help natural systems and vulnerable people cope with a shifting global climate. Yet compared to activities such as forest conservation and afforestation — widely noted as a way of sequestering carbon and cutting greenhouse gas emissions — biodiversity conservation is a neglected area. That must change: urgent support is needed for local solutions to biodiversity loss that provide benefits on all counts.

  6. Migration and adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tacoli, Cecilia

    2007-11-15

    Climate change is having an undeniable impact on many human systems and behaviours, including population mobility. This is hardly surprising: migration is an adaptive response to changes in people's circumstances. Yet environmental factors are not the whole story. Socio-economic, political and cultural factors are also closely linked to population movement, and heavily influence vulnerability to both direct and indirect impacts of climate change. Shifts in migration patterns are a strategy of adaptation to complex transformations, and recognising and accommodating this is key in policies for sustainable development and poverty reduction in the context of growing environmental stress.

  7. Climate Change - Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Katherine; Steffen, Will; Schellnhuber, Hans J.

    Past societies have reacted when they understood that their own activities were causing deleterious environmental change by controlling or modifying the offending activities. The scientific evidence has now become overwhelming that human activities, especially the combustion of fossil fuels......, are influencing the climate in ways that threaten the well-being and continued development of human society. If humanity is to learn from history and to limit these threats, the time has come for stronger control of the human activities that are changing the fundamental conditions for life on Earth. To decide...... on effective control measures, an understanding of how human activities are changing the climate, and of the implications of unchecked climate change, needs to be widespread among world and national leaders, as well as in the public. The purpose of this report is to provide, for a broad range of audiences...

  8. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rind, D.

    1990-01-01

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century

  9. Climate Change And Hydrologic Instability In Yemen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, C. P.; Funk, C. C.; McNally, A.; Shukla, S.

    2015-12-01

    Yemen is one of the most food insecure nations in the world. Its agriculture is strongly dependent on soil moisture that is heavily influenced by surface temperature and annual precipitation. We examine observations of rainfall and surface temperature and find that the rainfall, which exhibits strong interannual variability, has seen a moderate downward trend over the last 35 years while surface temperature has seen a very significant rise over the same period. Yemen has high vulnerability and low resilience to these climate changes stemming from many geopolitical and socioeconomic factors. The threshold of resilience has been crossed as Yemen is embroiled in chaos and conflict. We examine the relationship between climate change and agricultural and water insecurity using observed data and the Noah land surface model. We further used atmospheric reanalyses to explore the atmospheric teleconnections that affect the anomalous regional circulation. According to these investigations the robust surface temperature increase over recent decades, expected to continue under climate change, has strongly depleted the soil moisture. This drying of the soil exacerbated the acute hydrologic insecurity in Yemen, stemming predominantly from unsustainable groundwater use, and was likely a contributing factor to the ongoing conflict. We show that during naturally occurring dry years and under climate change this region experiences anomalous dry air advection from the northeast and that these regional circulation changes appear to be linked to tropical sea-surface temperature forcing and to the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude circulation. These results are an important example of the emerging influence of climate change in hydrologically insecure regions.

  10. Climate change adaptation in Ethiopia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weldegebriel, Zerihun Berhane; Prowse, Martin

    Ethiopia is vulnerable to climate change due to its limited development and dependence on agriculture. Social protection schemes like the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) can play a positive role in promoting livelihoods and enhancing households’ risk management. This article examines......, they suggest the PSNP may not be helping smallholders diversify income sources in a positive manner for climate adaptation. The article concludes by arguing for further investigation of the PSNP’s influence on smallholders’ adaptation strategies....

  11. About climate changes impact on the Kazakhstan pastures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lebed', L.V.; Belenkova, Z.S.; Turbacheva, T.P.

    1997-01-01

    Assessment of arid pastures vulnerability situated under direct influence of regional climate change related with greenhouse effect is carried out on Northern Aral Sea area as example. Climate change variants calculated with future prospects for on Kazakhstan territory with use up-to-date models of GFDL (USA), CCCM (Canada) climate theory are used. Number of protective measures are proposed for mitigation of consequences of possible vulnerability of pastures during simultaneous impact of complex of anthropogenic and natural factors. (author)

  12. Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Neofotis, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Human-influenced climate change is an observed phenomenon affecting physical and biological systems across the globe. The majority of observed impacts are related to temperature changes and are located in the northern high- and midlatitudes. However, new evidence is emerging that demonstrates that impacts are related to precipitation changes as well as temperature, and that climate change is impacting systems and sectors beyond the Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, we highlight some of this new evidence-focusing on regions and sectors that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) noted as under-represented-in the context of observed climate change impacts, direct and indirect drivers of change (including carbon dioxide itself), and methods of detection. We also present methods and studies attributing observed impacts to anthropogenic forcing. We argue that the expansion of methods of detection (in terms of a broader array of climate variables and data sources, inclusion of the major modes of climate variability, and incorporation of other drivers of change) is key to discerning the climate sensitivities of sectors and systems in regions where the impacts of climate change currently remain elusive. Attributing such changes to human forcing of the climate system, where possible, is important for development of effective mitigation and adaptation. Current challenges in documenting adaptation and the role of indigenous knowledge in detection and attribution are described.

  13. Salt Marshes as Potential Indicatore of Global Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, Daehyun; Cairens, David; Jung, S.H.

    2011-01-01

    Coastal scientists postulate that salt marshes are significantly affected by dynamics of global climate. However, few studies have explicitly proposed a perspective that regards salt marshes as potential indicators of climate change. This review article evaluates the possibility of salt marshes...... as indicators of global climate change, focusing upon three major aspects: sedimentary, vegetation, and biogeochemical dynamics. The previous literature concerned with these aspects commonly argues that the primary impact of climate change on salt marshes occurs via sea-level variations, because hydrologic...... fluctuations regulate the frequency, duration, and depth of over-marsh flooding events. Sedimentary, floristic, and biogeochemical dynamics prove to be significantly influenced by sealevel changes regardless of climate zones, and hence, undoubtedly possess a potential for indicating climate signatures. However...

  14. Influence of climatic teleconnections on the temporal isotopic ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    a close relation to the El Ni˜no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The ENSO indices ... record seems to have been caused through an atmospheric mechanism. ... temperature prior and subsequent to the year 1997. ... in the reconstruction of past climate change and suggests possible influence of climatic teleconnec-.

  15. Distributional impacts of climate change mitigation in Indian electricity: The influence of governance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, Narasimha D.

    2013-01-01

    Studies that examine the distributional impacts of climate change mitigation policies often neglect the influence of institutions that implement these policies. This study examines the short-term consumption-side distributional impacts of expanding low-carbon electric supply in the state of Maharashtra, India with a focus on the influence of regulatory discretion in pricing. Households' welfare impacts from economy-wide electricity price shocks are simulated against a baseline that is calibrated to actual household economic and electricity service conditions, including actual electricity budgets, block tier prices and supply rationing. Industrial price impacts are propagated to households using a Leontief input–output analysis. Regulatory pricing decisions are evaluated based on social welfare metrics for economic efficiency and income inequality. The analysis reveals new linkages between climate change mitigation, electricity policy and income distribution. Low-income households can be shielded from mitigation impacts without losses in aggregate welfare to the extent that regulators can recover mitigation costs through industrial price increases. Regulators' flexibility to distribute costs across households is constrained by industrial customers' migration off the grid. Reduced supply interruptions to the rural poor from the resulting demand contraction are a potential co-benefit of mitigation. Distributional impacts, therefore, depend on other electricity policies that are driven by the political economy of the sector. - Highlights: • Indirect price increases harm most households less than residential price increases. • Regulators have flexibility to distribute mitigation costs across income groups. • Reduced supply interruptions are a potential co-benefit of mitigation

  16. Ecological and evolutionary impacts of changing climatic variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vázquez, Diego P; Gianoli, Ernesto; Morris, William F; Bozinovic, Francisco

    2017-02-01

    While average temperature is likely to increase in most locations on Earth, many places will simultaneously experience higher variability in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Although ecologists and evolutionary biologists widely recognize the potential impacts of changes in average climatic conditions, relatively little attention has been paid to the potential impacts of changes in climatic variability and extremes. We review the evidence on the impacts of increased climatic variability and extremes on physiological, ecological and evolutionary processes at multiple levels of biological organization, from individuals to populations and communities. Our review indicates that climatic variability can have profound influences on biological processes at multiple scales of organization. Responses to increased climatic variability and extremes are likely to be complex and cannot always be generalized, although our conceptual and methodological toolboxes allow us to make informed predictions about the likely consequences of such climatic changes. We conclude that climatic variability represents an important component of climate that deserves further attention. © 2015 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  17. Influence of three common calibration metrics on the diagnosis of climate change impacts on water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seiller, G.; Roy, R.; Anctil, F.

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainties associated to the evaluation of the impacts of climate change on water resources are broad, from multiple sources, and lead to diagnoses sometimes difficult to interpret. Quantification of these uncertainties is a key element to yield confidence in the analyses and to provide water managers with valuable information. This work specifically evaluates the influence of hydrological modeling calibration metrics on future water resources projections, on thirty-seven watersheds in the Province of Québec, Canada. Twelve lumped hydrologic models, representing a wide range of operational options, are calibrated with three common objective functions derived from the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. The hydrologic models are forced with climate simulations corresponding to two RCP, twenty-nine GCM from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) and two post-treatment techniques, leading to future projections in the 2041-2070 period. Results show that the diagnosis of the impacts of climate change on water resources are quite affected by the hydrologic models selection and calibration metrics. Indeed, for the four selected hydrological indicators, dedicated to water management, parameters from the three objective functions can provide different interpretations in terms of absolute and relative changes, as well as projected changes direction and climatic ensemble consensus. The GR4J model and a multimodel approach offer the best modeling options, based on calibration performance and robustness. Overall, these results illustrate the need to provide water managers with detailed information on relative changes analysis, but also absolute change values, especially for hydrological indicators acting as security policy thresholds.

  18. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rind, D.

    1991-01-01

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century. 19 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

  19. Underestimating belief in climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jost, John T.

    2018-03-01

    People are influenced by second-order beliefs — beliefs about the beliefs of others. New research finds that citizens in the US and China systematically underestimate popular support for taking action to curb climate change. Fortunately, they seem willing and able to correct their misperceptions.

  20. The influence of climate change on wine production - the case of the Touriga Nacional grape variety (Quinta dos Termos, Portugal)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, João

    2017-04-01

    The regional and local climate, heavily influenced by global climate change, has strong implications for agriculture. Wine production which has specific characteristics in terms of climate and soil is undoubtedly one of the economic activities strongly influenced by climate change. Quinta dos Termos located in Beira Interior (Belmonte, Portugal) is the largest wine producer in the DOC Beira Interior region, producing premium to hiper premium wines of excellence, marketed at both national and international levels, and cultivates the vineyards according to the rules of Integrated Crop Management. Moreover, grapes are free from herbicides, pesticides or any other chemicals that can be harmful to the environment and health. These factors have contributed to the socio-economic development of the region, creating wealth, favoring employment and promoting tourism. The quality of the wines produced by Quinta dos Termos result from its terroir, given its granite region, the sun exposure, the wind protection, the atmospheric humidity and temperature, the soil water content, the mineralogical/organic composition and soil porosity. These factors favor unique conditions for the cultivation of Touriga Nacional grape variety, which is recognized by its extremely complex color and aroma, which allows the production of wines with great balance and a good ageing potential. Touriga Nacional, a red grape variety of Portuguese origin with high qualitative excellence and reputation and much appreciated worldwide, is versatile to several types of soils and resistant to high thermal amplitudes. Nevertheless, the climatic changes that has been gradually verified, the type of crop management, and in particular the reputation of Touriga Nacional grape variety, may be compromised in the long term, given that these characteristics are strongly influenced by the climate and soil. Aware of that, Quinta dos Termos has been performing a monitoring of the vineyards in terms of pedological treatment

  1. Factors influencing farmers’ choices of adaptation to climate change in Ekiti State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oluwakemi Adeola Obayelu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change poses a great threat to human security through erratic rainfall patterns and decreasing crop yields, contributing to increased hunger. The perceptions of the indigenous people about climate change and their responses to climate change have significant roles to play in addressing climate change. Therefore a critical study on farmers’ choices of adaptation to is critical for ensuring food security poverty alleviation. A multi-stage random sampling technique was used to select 156 households in Ekiti state while descriptive statistics and multinomial logit were used to analyze the data obtained from the households. The results showed that the most widely used adaptation method by the farmers were soil and water conservation measures (67 percent. The multinomial logit analysis revealed that the factors explaining farmer’s choices of climate change adaptation include age of the farmers, gender of the household head, years of education, years of farming experience, household size, farmers information on climate change, farmers access to credit, farm income, non-farm income, livestock ownership and extension contact.

  2. Attributing Changing Rates of Temperature Record Breaking to Anthropogenic Influences

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Andrew D.

    2017-11-01

    Record-breaking temperatures attract attention from the media, so understanding how and why the rate of record breaking is changing may be useful in communicating the effects of climate change. A simple methodology designed for estimating the anthropogenic influence on rates of record breaking in a given time series is proposed here. The frequency of hot and cold record-breaking temperature occurrences is shown to be changing due to the anthropogenic influence on the climate. Using ensembles of model simulations with and without human-induced forcings, it is demonstrated that the effect of climate change on global record-breaking temperatures can be detected as far back as the 1930s. On local scales, a climate change signal is detected more recently at most locations. The anthropogenic influence on the increased occurrence of hot record-breaking temperatures is clearer than it is for the decreased occurrence of cold records. The approach proposed here could be applied in rapid attribution studies of record extremes to quantify the influence of climate change on the rate of record breaking in addition to the climate anomaly being studied. This application is demonstrated for the global temperature record of 2016 and the Central England temperature record in 2014.

  3. Influencing Curriculum Development and Knowledge of Climate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Journal of Agricultural Extension ... Besides, the pedagogies and curricula are centrally defined by university governance structures which ... The study aimed at influencing curriculum development and knowledge of climate change issues at ...

  4. The influence of global climate change on the scientific foundations and applications of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: introduction to a SETAC international workshop.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, Ralph G; Hooper, Michael J; Balbus, John M; Clements, William; Fritz, Alyce; Gouin, Todd; Helm, Roger; Hickey, Christopher; Landis, Wayne; Moe, S Jannicke

    2013-01-01

    This is the first of seven papers resulting from a Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) international workshop titled "The Influence of Global Climate Change on the Scientific Foundations and Applications of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry." The workshop involved 36 scientists from 11 countries and was designed to answer the following question: How will global climate change influence the environmental impacts of chemicals and other stressors and the way we assess and manage them in the environment? While more detail is found in the complete series of articles, some key consensus points are as follows: (1) human actions (including mitigation of and adaptation to impacts of global climate change [GCC]) may have as much influence on the fate and distribution of chemical contaminants as does GCC, and modeled predictions should be interpreted cautiously; (2) climate change can affect the toxicity of chemicals, but chemicals can also affect how organisms acclimate to climate change; (3) effects of GCC may be slow, variable, and difficult to detect, though some populations and communities of high vulnerability may exhibit responses sooner and more dramatically than others; (4) future approaches to human and ecological risk assessments will need to incorporate multiple stressors and cumulative risks considering the wide spectrum of potential impacts stemming from GCC; and (5) baseline/reference conditions for estimating resource injury and restoration/rehabilitation will continually shift due to GCC and represent significant challenges to practitioners. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

  5. Changes in Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice as a Microcosm of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, Claire L.

    2014-01-01

    Polar sea ice is a key element of the climate system and has now been monitored through satellite observations for over three and a half decades. The satellite observations reveal considerable information about polar ice and its changes since the late 1970s, including a prominent downward trend in Arctic sea ice coverage and a much lesser upward trend in Antarctic sea ice coverage, illustrative of the important fact that climate change entails spatial contrasts. The decreasing ice coverage in the Arctic corresponds well with contemporaneous Arctic warming and exhibits particularly large decreases in the summers of 2007 and 2012, influenced by both preconditioning and atmospheric conditions. The increasing ice coverage in the Antarctic is not as readily explained, but spatial differences in the Antarctic trends suggest a possible connection with atmospheric circulation changes that have perhaps been influenced by the Antarctic ozone hole. The changes in the polar ice covers and the issues surrounding those changes have many commonalities with broader climate changes and their surrounding issues, allowing the sea ice changes to be viewed in some important ways as a microcosm of global climate change.

  6. Biodiversity, climate change and poverty: exploring the links

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reid, Hannah; Swiderska, Krystyna

    2008-02-15

    Biodiversity — the variety of all life, from genes and species to ecosystems — is intimately linked to Earth's climate and, inevitably, to climate change. Biodiversity and poverty are also inextricably connected. For instance, changes to natural ecosystems influence both climate change and people's ability to cope with some of its damaging impacts. And in their turn climate change, as well as people's responses to it, affect biodiversity. Unpicking all these strands clearly shows that conserving and managing biodiversity can help natural systems and vulnerable people cope with a shifting global climate. Yet compared to activities such as forest conservation and afforestation — widely noted as a way of sequestering carbon and cutting greenhouse gas emissions — biodiversity conservation is a neglected area. That must change: urgent support is needed for local solutions to biodiversity loss that provide benefits on all counts.

  7. Cosmic rays and space weather: effects on global climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. I. Dorman

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider possible effects of cosmic rays and some other space factors on the Earth's climate change. It is well known that the system of internal and external factors formatting the climate is very unstable; decreasing planetary temperature leads to an increase of snow surface, and decrease of the total solar energy input into the system decreases the planetary temperature even more, etc. From this it follows that even energetically small factors may have a big influence on climate change. In our opinion, the most important of these factors are cosmic rays and cosmic dust through their influence on clouds, and thus, on climate.

  8. Cosmic rays and space weather. Effects on global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorman, L.I.; Israel Space Agency; Russian Academy of Sciences

    2012-01-01

    We consider possible effects of cosmic rays and some other space factors on the Earth's climate change. It is well known that the system of internal and external factors formatting the climate is very unstable; decreasing planetary temperature leads to an increase of snow surface, and decrease of the total solar energy input into the system decreases the planetary temperature even more, etc. From this it follows that even energetically small factors may have a big influence on climate change. In our opinion, the most important of these factors are cosmic rays and cosmic dust through their influence on clouds, and thus, on climate. (orig.)

  9. Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, A.D.; Chapin, F. S.; Walsh, J.E.; Wirth, C.; ,

    2006-01-01

    The Arctic is a key part of the global climate system because the net positive energy input to the tropics must ultimately be resolved through substantial energy losses in high-latitude regions. The Arctic influences the global climate system through both positive and negative feedbacks that involve physical, ecological, and human systems of the Arctic. The balance of evidence suggests that positive feedbacks to global warming will likely dominate in the Arctic during the next 50 to 100 years. However, the negative feedbacks associated with changing the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean might abruptly launch the planet into another glacial period on longer timescales. In light of uncertainties and the vulnerabilities of the climate system to responses in the Arctic, it is important that we improve our understanding of how integrated regional changes in the Arctic will likely influence the evolution of the global climate system. Copyright ?? 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

  10. On the nature of the solar influence on climate and its contribution to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieira, L. A.; da Silva, L. A.; Guarnieri, F.; Echer, E.; Dal Lago, A.; Wrasse, C. M.; Schuch, N.

    2007-05-01

    The influence of solar magnetic variability on the lower atmospheric regions has been observed on different atmospheric parameters in different time scales, but a plausible mechanism to explain these observations remains unclear. It is also indistinguishable whether or not the variability on the solar-terrestrial coupling drives the present climate change. New observations suggested that the existence of a geomagnetic signal in climate data would support a direct link between solar variability and their effects on climate. Usoskin and colleagues compared 1000-year reconstructions of sunspot numbers and cosmic ray flux, derived from cosmogenic isotope dates, with air temperature history in the Northern hemisphere. They observed higher temperatures during periods of intense solar activity. In addition, they report that three different statistical tests consistently indicate that the long-term trends in the temperature correlate better with cosmic rays than with sunspot numbers. Vieira and Da Silva observed that the clouds effects on the radiative flux in the atmosphere in the southern Pacific are related to the intensity of the geomagnetic field. They have also observed a cosmic rays modulation of the variability of the long wavelength radiative flux in the atmosphere. More recently, Vieira and colleagues reported that a correlation between increasing sea-level pressure in the tropical Pacific, and decreasing magnetic field intensity is observed. This indicates that the physical processes in the magnetosphere, ionosphere and upper atmosphere are mapped downward to the Earth's surface. It was suggested that that the coupling mechanism may be linked to the ozone depletion in the lower mesosphere, and in the upper stratosphere of the auroral region, and/or the southern hemisphere magnetic anomaly region. The depletion is caused by high energy protons produced during solar proton events (SPEs) released during large solar storms. Variations in solar irradiance, and ozone

  11. Factors Influencing Arab Nursing Students' Attitudes toward Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability and their Inclusion in Nursing Curricula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz, Jonas Preposi; Felicilda-Reynaldo, Rhea Faye D; Alshammari, Farhan; Alquwez, Nahed; Alicante, Jerico G; Obaid, Khamees B; Rady, Hanan Ebrahim Abd El Aziz; Qtait, Mohammad; Silang, John Paul Ben T

    2018-05-17

    To assess the factors influencing the attitudes of Bachelor of Science in Nursing students toward climate change and environmental sustainability and the inclusion of these concepts in the nursing curricula of four Arab countries. A convenience sample of 1,059 students from four Arab countries was surveyed using the Environmental Sustainability Attitudes in Nursing Survey-2 (SANS-2) questionnaire in this descriptive-comparative study. The majority of the respondents exhibited positive attitudes toward the five items of SANS-2, with "Environmental sustainability is an important issue for nursing" receiving the lowest mean score and "Issues about climate change should be included in the nursing curriculum" receiving the highest mean score. Saudi students had more positive attitudes toward environmental sustainability in health care compared with students from Iraq, Egypt, and the Palestinian Territories. Country of residence, type of community, and knowledge about environmental issues and their impact on health in any nursing course were significant factors that influenced attitudes toward environmental sustainability. The inclusion of climate change and environmental sustainability in nursing curricula in the Arab region was emphasized by the findings. Including environmental sustainability practices in nursing education will help student nurses develop critical thinking and skills in the adaptive delivery of health care, especially when resources are scarce. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Multinationals' Political Activities on Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.

    2007-01-01

    This article explores the international dimensions of multinationals' corporate political activities, focusing on an international issue - climate change - being implemented differently in a range of countries. Analyzing data from Financial Times Global 500 firms, it examines the influence on types and process of multinationals' political strategies, reckoning with institutional contexts and issue saliency. Findings show that the type of political activities can be characterized as an information strategy to influence policy makers toward market-based solutions, not so much withholding action on emission reduction. Moreover, multinationals pursue self-regulation, targeting a broad range of political actors. The process of political strategy is mostly one of collective action. International differences particularly surface in the type of political actors aimed at, with U.S. and Australian firms focusing more on non-government actors (voluntary programs) than European and Japanese firms. Influencing home-country (not host-country) governments is the main component of international political strategy on climate change

  13. Online and classroom tools for Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samenow, J. P.; Scott, K.

    2004-12-01

    EPA's Office of Atmospheric Programs has developed unique tools for educating students about the science of global warming and on actions that help address the issue. These tools have been highly successful and used in hundreds of classrooms across the country. EPA's Global Warming Kids' Site features interactive web-based animations for educating children, grades 4-8, about climate change. The animations illustrate how human activities likely influence the climate system through processes such as the greenhouse effect and carbon and water cycles. The pages also contain interactive quizzes. See: http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/kids/animations.html For advanced high school and college students, EPA is nearing completion on the development of interactive visualizations of the emissions and climate scenarios featured in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Third Assessment Report. These visualizations allow students to choose a scenario and see how emissions, the climate and the earth's surface change over time. The Global Warming Wheelcard Classroom Activity Kit is designed to help teachers of middle school students introduce the concept of human induced global warming in the context of how rates of energy usage can influence the increase or eventual slowing of climate change. The Climate Change, Wildlife, and Wildlands Toolkit for Teachers and Interpreters was produced in a partnership among three agencies - EPA, US Fish and Wildlife Service and the National Park Service (NPS). Both classroom teachers and outdoor interpreters find it useful in conveying information about climate change science and impacts to their students and visitors. The development of the toolkit led to a larger program between EPA and NPS that assists parks in inventorying their emissions, creating action plans, and talking to the public about what they are doing - a "lead by example" type program that the two agencies hope to replicate in other venues in the coming year.

  14. Global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gugele, B.; Radunsky, K.; Spangl, W.

    2002-01-01

    In the last decade marked changes of climatic factors have been observed, such as increases in average global earth temperatures, the amount of precipitation and the number of extreme weather events. Green house gases influence the energy flow in the atmosphere by absorbing infra-red radiation. An overview of the Austrian greenhouse gas emissions is given, including statistical data and their major sources. In 1999 the emissions of all six Kyoto greenhouse gases ( CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, HFC s , PFC s and SF 6 ) amounted to 79.2 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalents . A comparison between the EC Members states is also presented. Finally the climate change strategy prepared by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management together with other ministries and the federal provinces is discussed, which main aim is to lead to an annual emission reduction of 16 million tonnes of CO 2 . Figs. 2, Tables 1. (nevyjel)

  15. Effects of Climate Change on Wildlife and Tourism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ongara, W.A; Awuor, V.O

    1997-01-01

    Kenya is well endowed with large variety of wild terrestrial and aquatic fauna and flora whose distribution traverses various ecological zone with variety of landscape. The landscape consists of mountains, plains and platues which provide a wealthy ecological base for the tourism industry. The development of tourism infrastructure has been influenced by the distribution of animals that popularly attract tourists. The spatial and temporal distribution of such animals have to large extent been influenced by climate change and other environmental factors. Lately, there has arisen concern that, climate change resulting from the green-house induced global warming would alter wildlife habitat conditions and lead to changes in species composition and dominance. One of the most challenging tasks of managing and planning for the development of tourism is the uncertainty associated with future wildlife in Kenya. The influence of climate is a major determinant of species distribution of both mammalian and avifauna in Kenya. For instance, elephants and buffaloes are usually found in Afro-Alpine glacier and moorlands, highlands moist forests, the grasslands, the coastal forest and woodland habitats. The type of vegetation in a certain geographical region is determined by climate which in turn determines the distribution of fauna considering that, different faunas survive adopt to different ecological zones

  16. Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, M.; Miguel, E.

    2014-12-01

    A rapidly growing body of research examines whether human conflict can be affected by climatic changes. Drawing from archaeology, criminology, economics, geography, history, political science, and psychology, we assemble and analyze the most rigorous quantitative studies and document, for the first time, a striking convergence of results. We find strong causal evidence linking climatic events to human conflict across a range of spatial and temporal scales and across all major regions of the world. The magnitude of climate's influence is substantial: for each one standard deviation (1sd) change in climate toward warmer temperatures or more extreme rainfall, median estimates indicate that the frequency of interpersonal violence rises 4% and the frequency of intergroup conflict rises 14%. Because locations throughout the inhabited world are expected to warm 2sd to 4sd by 2050, amplified rates of human conflict could represent a large and critical impact of anthropogenic climate change.

  17. Climate change and food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, P.J; Ingram, J.S.I; Brklacich, M

    2005-01-01

    Dynamic interactions between and within the biogeophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food, resulting in food systems that underpin food security. Food systems encompass food availability (production, distribution and exchange), food access (affordability, allocation and preference) and food utilization (nutritional and societal values and safety), so that food security is, therefore, diminished when food systems are stressed. Such stresses may be induced by a range of factors in addition to climate change and/or other agents of environmental change (e.g. conflict, HIV/AIDS) and may be particularly severe when these factors act in combination. Urbanization and globalization are causing rapid changes to food systems. Climate change may affect food systems in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production (e.g. changes in rainfall leading to drought or flooding, or warmer or cooler temperatures leading to changes in the length of growing season), to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. The relative importance of climate change for food security differs between regions. For example, in southern Africa, climate is among the most frequently cited drivers of food insecurity because it acts both as an underlying, ongoing issue and as a short-lived shock. The low ability to cope with shocks and to mitigate long-term stresses means that coping strategies that might be available in other regions are unavailable or inappropriate. In other regions, though, such as parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India, other drivers, such as labour issues and the availability and quality of ground water for irrigation, rank higher than the direct effects of climate change as factors influencing food security. Because of the multiple socio-economic and bio-physical factors affecting food systems and hence food security, the capacity to adapt food systems to reduce their

  18. Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thornburn, P. J.; Rotter, R. P.; Cammarano, D.; hide

    2013-01-01

    Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1,3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking.

  19. Comment: Legal Liability as Climate Change Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Hilary Sigman

    2007-01-01

    Several U.S. states have attempted to use of legal liability imposed on greenhouse gas emitters as a public policy instrument for climate change. This brief comment considers the desirability of this approach, focusing on three possible roles for climate change liability: as a source of compensation, as a direct influence on greenhouse gas concentrations, and as a means to facilitate the adoption of ex ante public policies to control greenhouse gases. The strongest argument for liability may ...

  20. Climate change impacts on food system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.

    2014-12-01

    Food system includes biophysical factors (climate, land and water), human environments (production technologies and food consumption, distribution and marketing), as well as the dynamic interactions within them. Climate change affects agriculture and food systems in various ways. Agricultural production can be influenced directly by climatic factors such as mean temperature rising, change in rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme events. Eventually, climate change could cause shift of arable land, alteration of water availability, abnormal fluctuation of food prices, and increase of people at risk of malnutrition. This work aims to evaluate how climate change would affect agricultural production biophysically and how these effects would propagate to social factors at the global level. In order to model the complex interactions between the natural and social components, a Global Optimization model of Agricultural Land and Water resources (GOALW) is applied to the analysis. GOALW includes various demands of human society (food, feed, other), explicit production module, and irrigation water availability constraint. The objective of GOALW is to maximize global social welfare (consumers' surplus and producers' surplus).Crop-wise irrigation water use in different regions around the world are determined by the model; marginal value of water (MVW) can be obtained from the model, which implies how much additional welfare benefit could be gained with one unit increase in local water availability. Using GOALW, we will analyze two questions in this presentation: 1) how climate change will alter irrigation requirements and how the social system would buffer that by price/demand adjustment; 2) how will the MVW be affected by climate change and what are the controlling factors. These results facilitate meaningful insights for investment and adaptation strategies in sustaining world's food security under climate change.

  1. Climate change science - beyond IPCC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicholls, N.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: The main conclusions of the IPCC Working Group I assessment of the physical science of climate change, from the Fourth IPCC Assessment, will be presented, along with the evidence supporting these conclusions. These conclusions include: Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years. The global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land use change, while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture; The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has improved since the Third Assessment Report, leading to very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] Wm-2; Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level; At continental, regional and ocean basin scales, numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed. These include changes in arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones. Palaeo-climatic information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last half-century is unusual in at least the previous 1,300 years; Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations; Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental

  2. Influence of lag effect, soil release, and climate change on watershed anthropogenic nitrogen inputs and riverine export dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Dingjiang; Huang, Hong; Hu, Minpeng; Dahlgren, Randy A

    2014-05-20

    This study demonstrates the importance of the nitrogen-leaching lag effect, soil nitrogen release, and climate change on anthropogenic N inputs (NANI) and riverine total nitrogen (TN) export dynamics using a 30-yr record for the Yongan River watershed in eastern China. Cross-correlation analysis indicated a 7-yr, 5-yr, and 4-yr lag time in riverine TN export in response to changes in NANI, temperature, and drained agricultural land area, respectively. Enhanced by warmer temperature and improved agricultural drainage, the upper 20 cm of agricultural soils released 270 kg N ha(-1) between 1980 and 2009. Climate change also increased the fractional export of NANI to river. An empirical model (R(2) = 0.96) for annual riverine TN flux incorporating these influencing factors estimated 35%, 41%, and 24% of riverine TN flux originated from the soil N pool, NANI, and background N sources, respectively. The model forecasted an increase of 45%, 25%, and 6% and a decrease of 13% in riverine TN flux from 2010 to 2030 under continued development, climate change, status-quo, and tackling scenarios, respectively. The lag effect, soil N release, and climate change delay riverine TN export reductions with respect to decreases in NANI and should be considered in developing and evaluating N management measures.

  3. Climate change and its marginalizing effect on agriculture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mestre-Sanchis, Fernando [Agriculture and Food Department, University of La Rioja (Spain); Feijoo-Bello, Maria Luisa [Economics Department, University of Zaragoza (Spain)

    2009-01-15

    The agriculture of some areas considered marginal in the EU agricultural context is being questioned due to its low productivity and growing dependence on economic aid programs Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This study shows that climate change increases these areas marginalisation of since worsens crop growth conditions. The influence of climate change on the agricultural sector is analyzed using the Multicriteria Decision Paradigm with information provided by the Erosion-Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) and a General Circulation Model (GCM) as inputs for multicriteria mathematical programming models. The results obtained show climate change effects on the crop portfolio. Further results suggest that climate change effects are not only economics and environmental, reducing the suitable area for crops, but also social as it causes loss of jobs in the agricultural sector. (author)

  4. Climate change: Conflict of observational science, theory, and politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerhard, L.C.

    2004-01-01

    Debate over whether human activity causes Earth climate change obscures the immensity of the dynamic systems that create and maintain climate on the planet. Anthropocentric debate leads people to believe that they can alter these planetary dynamic systems to prevent that they perceive as negative climate impacts on human civilization. Although politicians offer simplistic remedies, such as the Kyoto Protocol, global climate continues to change naturally. Better planning for the inevitable dislocations that have followed natural global climate changes throughout human history requires us to accept the fact that climate will change, and that human society must adapt to the changes. Over the last decade, the scientific literature reported a shift in emphasis from attempting to build theoretical models of putative human impacts on climate to understanding the planetwide dynamic processes that are the natural climate drivers. The current scientific literature is beginning to report the history of past climate change, the extent of natural climate variability, natural system drivers, and the episodicity of many climate changes. The scientific arguments have broadened from focus upon human effects on climate to include the array of natural phenomena that have driven global climate change for eons. However, significant political issues with long-term social consequences continue their advance. This paper summarizes recent scientific progress in climate science and arguments about human influence on climate. ?? 2004. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

  5. climate change adaptation strategies by local farmers in kilombero

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    climatic stresses? What are institutions and political structures influencing local farmer's adaptive capacity? ... ability of the systems to adjust to climate change and has three ..... seedlings, and use of improved seed varieties. Political structures ...

  6. Climate Change Mitigation A Balanced Approach to Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a fresh and innovative perspective on climate change policy. By emphasizing the multiple facets of climate policy, from mitigation to adaptation, from technological innovation and diffusion to governance issues, it contains a comprehensive overview of the economic and policy dimensions of the climate problem. The keyword of the book is balance. The book clarifies that climate change cannot be controlled by sacrificing economic growth and many other urgent global issues. At the same time, action to control climate change cannot be delayed, even though gradually implemented. Therefore, on the one hand climate policy becomes pervasive and affects all dimensions of international policy. On the other hand, climate policy cannot be too ambitious: a balanced approach between mitigation and adaptation, between economic growth and resource management, between short term development efforts and long term innovation investments, should be adopted. I recommend its reading. Carlo Carraro, President, Ca�...

  7. Cinematic climate change, a promising perspective on climate change communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakellari, Maria

    2015-10-01

    Previous research findings display that after having seen popular climate change films, people became more concerned, more motivated and more aware of climate change, but changes in behaviors were short-term. This article performs a meta-analysis of three popular climate change films, The Day after Tomorrow (2005), An Inconvenient Truth (2006), and The Age of Stupid (2009), drawing on research in social psychology, human agency, and media effect theory in order to formulate a rationale about how mass media communication shapes our everyday life experience. This article highlights the factors with which science blends in the reception of the three climate change films and expands the range of options considered in order to encourage people to engage in climate change mitigation actions. © The Author(s) 2014.

  8. Global climate changes in the past and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schoenwiese, C.D.

    1993-01-01

    Is man changing the climate of the Earth, and if so, is this at a global scale? This question with all its reunifications, usually referred to under the heading ''greenhouse effect'', deservedly stands in the focus of public attention. Besides fears and warnings reaching even to disaster scenarios there have recently also been sceptical voices pointing out the imponderabilities of filtering anthropogenic effects out of the climate data. This uncertainty is not surprising to the expert, as natural changes of climate always have, and will, superimpose anthropogenic influences. Therefore, it is not enough to peer into the future with the help of intricate climate models. Diagnostic analysis of the past climate is at least just as important. (orig.) [de

  9. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  10. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Toni L.; Jackson, Stephen T.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

  11. Opinions and Knowledge About Climate Change Science in High School Students

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harker-Schuch, Inez; Henriksen, Christian Bugge

    2013-01-01

    in national and international schools before and after a lecture in climate change science. The results show that knowledge about climate change science significantly affects opinions about climate change. Students with a higher number of correct answers are more likely to have the opinion that humans......This study investigates the influence of knowledge on opinions about climate change in the emerging adults' age group (16-17 years). Furthermore, the effects of a lecture in climate change science on knowledge and opinions were assessed. A survey was conducted in Austria and Denmark on 188 students...... are causing climate change and that both individuals and governments are responsible for addressing climate change. The lecture in climate change science significantly improved knowledge development but did not affect opinions. Knowledge was improved by 11 % after the lecture. However, the percentage...

  12. Getting Smart? Climate Change and the Electric Grid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Meadowcroft

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Interest in the potential of smart grid to transform the way societies generate, distribute, and use electricity has increased dramatically over the past decade. A smarter grid could contribute to both climate change mitigation and adaptation by increasing low-carbon electricity production and enhancing system reliability and resilience. However, climate goals are not necessarily essential for smart grid. Climate change is only one of many considerations motivating innovation in electricity systems, and depending on the path of grid modernization, a future smart grid might do little to reduce, or could even exacerbate, risks associated with climate change. This paper identifies tensions within a shared smart grid vision and illustrates how competing societal priorities are influencing electricity system innovation. Co-existing but divergent priorities among key actors’ are mapped across two critical dimensions: centralized versus decentralized energy systems and radical versus incremental change. Understanding these tensions provides insights on how climate change objectives can be integrated to shape smart grid development. Electricity system change is context-specific and path-dependent, so specific strategies linking smart grid and climate change need to be developed at local, regional, and national levels. And while incremental improvements may bring short term gains, a radical transformation is needed to realize climate objectives.

  13.  Climate Change and the Arctic Discourses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørst, Lill Rastad

    2009-01-01

      It is now a fact that global warming and climate change are on the public agenda and will remain there for a long time to come. The Arctic has been portrayed as a thermometer for the world mostly because it is very vulnerable to the climatic changes and the subsequent consequences. Inuit are used...... as an example and included as the first witnesses to ‘the big catastrophe'. My hypothesis is that the newly emerging climate debate can establish an unexpected and unique political platform where Inuit can get influence on local as well as global questions. My investigating focus concerning these matters...

  14. Influence of Climate Change on River Discharge in Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert A. Goler

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The effect of climate change on the river discharge characteristics in four catchment basins within Austria is investigated using a hydrological model. Input for the model are daily climate data generated from three regional climate models (RCMs over the time period 1951–2100 using the A1B emission scenario. Due to the complex terrain of the basins, the climate data has been downscaled to a resolution of 1km×1km$1\\,\\text{km}\\times1\\,\\text{km}$. The hydrological model includes processes such as meltwater from snow and glaciers; surface, subsurface, and groundwater flows; and evapotranspiration. The modelling results show that, although only one RCM exhibits a significant reduction in the mean annual discharge towards the end of the 21st century, all RCMs exhibit significant changes in the seasonal distribution of the discharge. In particular, for basins whose discharge is dependent on water stored as snow, there will be a shift in the time of maximum river discharge to earlier in the year as the snow and ice melt earlier. During the winter months the discharge is forecasted to be higher than at present, which would lead to the number of days of low discharge being reduced. However, the earlier snow melt means that the available water for the summer months will be reduced, leading to lower discharges than present, and thus an increase in the number of low discharge days.

  15. The changing world of climate change: Oregon leads the states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carver, P.H.; Sadler, S.; Kosloff, L.H.; Trexler, M.C.

    1997-01-01

    Following on the heels of recent national and international developments in climate change policy, Oregon's open-quote best-of-batch close-quote proceeding has validated the use of CO 2 offsets as a cost-effective means of advancing climate change mitigation goals. The proceeding was a first in several respects and represents a record commitment of funds to CO 2 mitigation by a private entity. In December 1995, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), issued its Second Assessment Report. The IPCC's conclusion that open-quotes[t]he balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climateclose quotes fundamentally changed the tenor of the policy debate regarding potential threats associated with global climate change. At the Climate Change Convention's Conference of the Parties (COP) in Geneva in July 1996, most countries, including the United States, advocated adopting the IPCC report as the basis for swift policy movement toward binding international emissions targets. The next COP, in December 1997, is scheduled to be the venue for the signing of a treaty protocol incorporating such targets. Binding targets would have major consequences for power plant operators in the US and around the world. Recent developments in the state of Oregon show the kinds of measures that may become commonplace at the state level in addressing climate change mitigation. First, Oregon recently completed the first administrative proceeding in the US aimed at offsetting the greenhouse gas emissions of a new power plant. Second, a legislatively mandated energy facility siting task force recently recommended that Oregon adopt a carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) standard for new power plant construction and drop use of the open-quotes need for powerclose quotes standard. This article reviews these two policy milestones and their implications for climate change mitigation in the United States

  16. Changing heathlands in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ransijn, Johannes

    Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures are rising and precipitation regimes are changing at global scale. How ecosystem will be affected by global climatic change is dependent on the responses of plants and plant communities. This thesis focuses on how climate change affects heathland...... plant communities. Many heathlands have shifted from dwarf shrub dominance to grass dominance and climatic change might affect the competitive balance between dwarf shrubs and grasses. We looked at heathland vegetation dynamics and heathland plant responses to climatic change at different spatial...... between C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in the same climate change experiment and 5) a study where we compared the responses of shrubland plant communities to experimental warming and recurrent experimental droughts in seven climate change experiments across Europe. Heathland vegetation dynamics are slow...

  17. Observations from old forests underestimate climate change effects on tree mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Yong; Chen, Han Y H

    2013-01-01

    Understanding climate change-associated tree mortality is central to linking climate change impacts and forest structure and function. However, whether temporal increases in tree mortality are attributed to climate change or stand developmental processes remains uncertain. Furthermore, interpreting the climate change-associated tree mortality estimated from old forests for regional forests rests on an un-tested assumption that the effects of climate change are the same for young and old forests. Here we disentangle the effects of climate change and stand developmental processes on tree mortality. We show that both climate change and forest development processes influence temporal mortality increases, climate change-associated increases are significantly higher in young than old forests, and higher increases in younger forests are a result of their higher sensitivity to regional warming and drought. We anticipate our analysis to be a starting point for more comprehensive examinations of how forest ecosystems might respond to climate change.

  18. Opinions and knowledge about climate change science in high school students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harker-Schuch, Inez; Bugge-Henriksen, Christian

    2013-10-01

    This study investigates the influence of knowledge on opinions about climate change in the emerging adults' age group (16-17 years). Furthermore, the effects of a lecture in climate change science on knowledge and opinions were assessed. A survey was conducted in Austria and Denmark on 188 students in national and international schools before and after a lecture in climate change science. The results show that knowledge about climate change science significantly affects opinions about climate change. Students with a higher number of correct answers are more likely to have the opinion that humans are causing climate change and that both individuals and governments are responsible for addressing climate change. The lecture in climate change science significantly improved knowledge development but did not affect opinions. Knowledge was improved by 11 % after the lecture. However, the percentage of correct answers was still below 60 % indicating an urgent need for improving climate change science education.

  19. Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change as Revealed by Relationships between Simulated Crop Yield and Climate Change Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, A. W.; Absar, S. M.; Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.

    2012-12-01

    The vulnerability of agriculture is among the leading concerns surrounding climate change. Agricultural production is influenced by drought and other extremes in weather and climate. In regions of subsistence farming, worst case reductions in yield lead to malnutrition and famine. Reduced surplus contributes to poverty in agrarian economies. In more economically diverse and industrialized regions, variations in agricultural yield can influence the regional economy through market mechanisms. The latter grows in importance as agriculture increasingly services the energy market in addition to markets for food and fiber. Agriculture is historically a highly adaptive enterprise and will respond to future changes in climate with a variety of adaptive mechanisms. Nonetheless, the risk, if not expectation, of increases in climate extremes and hazards exceeding historical experience motivates scientifically based anticipatory assessment of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change. We investigate the sensitivity component of that vulnerability using EPIC, a well established field-scale model of cropping systems that includes the simulation of economic yield. The core of our analysis is the relationship between simulated yield and various indices of climate change, including the CCI/CLIVAR/JCOM ETCCDI indices, calculated from weather inputs to the model. We complement this core with analysis using the DSSAT cropping system model and exploration of relationships between historical yield statistics and climate indices calculated from weather records. Our analyses are for sites in the Southeast/Gulf Coast region of the United States. We do find "tight" monotonic relationships between annual yield and climate for some indices, especially those associated with available water. More commonly, however, we find an increase in the variability of yield as the index value becomes more extreme. Our findings contribute to understanding the sensitivity of crop yield as part of

  20. Improving leadership on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chandani, Achala

    2011-03-15

    The upcoming UN conference on climate change in Durban, South Africa throws a spotlight on African climate policy. As part of a knowledge-sharing initiative in Southern Africa, we assessed parliamentarians' needs for more information on climate threats and responses, and ways to improve their capabilities as key stakeholders influencing national and global decisionmaking. Funded by the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office and partnered with the Association of European Parliamentarians with Africa (AWEPA), IIED worked with parliamentarians in the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) — Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland — through interviews, literature surveys, field trips and workshops. Similar studies in Malawi and Scotland also fed into this project.

  1. Climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Kolshus, Hans H.; Torvanger, Asbjoern

    2000-08-01

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

  2. Impact of African traditional worldviews on climate change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanganyado, Edmond; Teta, Charles; Masiri, Busani

    2018-03-01

    Recent studies show cultural worldviews are a key determinant of environmental risk perceptions; thus, they could influence climate change adaptation strategies. African traditional worldviews encourage harmony between humans and the environment through a complex metaphysical belief system transmitted through folklore, taboos, and traditional knowledge. However, African traditional worldviews hold a belief in traditional gods that was shown to have a low connectedness to nature and a low willingness to change. In Makueni District, Kenya, 45% of agropastoralists surveyed believed drought was god's plan and could not be changed. In contrast, traditional knowledge, which is shaped by African traditional worldviews, is often used to frame adaptive strategies such as migration, changing modes of production, and planting different crop varieties. Furthermore, traditional knowledge has been used as a complement to science in areas where meteorological data was unavailable. However, the role of African traditional worldviews on climate change adaption remains understudied. Hence, there is a need to systematically establish the influence of African traditional worldviews on climate change risk perception, development of adaptive strategies, and policy formulation and implementation. In this commentary, we discuss the potential impacts of African traditional worldviews on climate change adaptation. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:189-193. © 2018 SETAC. © 2018 SETAC.

  3. Anthropogenic range contractions bias species climate change forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faurby, Søren; Araújo, Miguel B.

    2018-03-01

    Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change most often rely on ecological niche models, in which characterizations of climate suitability are highly contingent on the species range data used. If ranges are far from equilibrium under current environmental conditions, for instance owing to local extinctions in otherwise suitable areas, modelled environmental suitability can be truncated, leading to biased estimates of the effects of climate change. Here we examine the impact of such biases on estimated risks from climate change by comparing models of the distribution of North American mammals based on current ranges with ranges accounting for historical information on species ranges. We find that estimated future diversity, almost everywhere, except in coastal Alaska, is drastically underestimated unless the full historical distribution of the species is included in the models. Consequently forecasts of climate change impacts on biodiversity for many clades are unlikely to be reliable without acknowledging anthropogenic influences on contemporary ranges.

  4. Global climate change and above- belowground insect herbivore interactions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott Wesley McKenzie

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Predicted changes to the Earth’s climate are likely to affect above-belowground interactions. Our understanding is limited, however, by past focus on two-species aboveground interactions mostly ignoring belowground influences. Despite their importance to ecosystem processes, there remains a dearth of empirical evidence showing how climate change will affect above-belowground interactions. The responses of above- and belowground organisms to climate change are likely to differ given the fundamentally different niches they inhabit. Yet there are few studies that address the biological and ecological reactions of belowground herbivores to environmental conditions in current and future climates. Even fewer studies investigate the consequences of climate change for above-belowground interactions between herbivores and other organisms; those that do provide no evidence of a directed response. This paper highlights the importance of considering the belowground fauna when making predictions on the effects of climate change on plant-mediated interspecific interactions.

  5. Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Michael E; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Steinman, Byron A; Miller, Sonya K; Coumou, Dim

    2017-03-27

    Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6-8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art ("CMIP5") historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability.

  6. Studies on climate change problems and response measures in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruqiu, Y. [China National Environmental Protection Agency, Beijing (China)

    1995-06-01

    Climate has substantial influence on the development of human society. At the same time, the global climate is being affected by human activities. Since industrial revolution large amount of CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases have been emitted to the atmosphere, causing significant change in its composition. It is recognized that this change might be sufficient to cause change in global climate. Because of the importance of climate change issues, the Chinese government pays great attention to them. As climate change concerns almost all aspects of the social and economic development, in order to coordinate ministries and agencies of the government in their efforts to deal with climate change problems, the Coordinating Group on Climate Change under the Environmental Protection Committee of the State Council was established in February 1990. There are four working groups under the Coordinating Group, working on scientific assessment, impact assessment and response strategies, economic implication and international convention matters of climate change. A number of research and technological development projects related to climate change issues have been organized, including bilateral cooperation projects and projects supported by GEF, UNEP, UNDP, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and other international organizations. (EG) 11 refs.

  7. Studies on climate change problems and response measures in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruqiu, Y.

    1995-01-01

    Climate has substantial influence on the development of human society. At the same time, the global climate is being affected by human activities. Since industrial revolution large amount of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases have been emitted to the atmosphere, causing significant change in its composition. It is recognized that this change might be sufficient to cause change in global climate. Because of the importance of climate change issues, the Chinese government pays great attention to them. As climate change concerns almost all aspects of the social and economic development, in order to coordinate ministries and agencies of the government in their efforts to deal with climate change problems, the Coordinating Group on Climate Change under the Environmental Protection Committee of the State Council was established in February 1990. There are four working groups under the Coordinating Group, working on scientific assessment, impact assessment and response strategies, economic implication and international convention matters of climate change. A number of research and technological development projects related to climate change issues have been organized, including bilateral cooperation projects and projects supported by GEF, UNEP, UNDP, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and other international organizations. (EG) 11 refs

  8. The influence of negative climate changes on physical development of urban and rural areas in Bosnia and Herzegovina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahman NURKOVIĆ

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The influence of negative climate changes on physical development of urban and rural areas of Bosnia and Herzegovina has been analysed in the paper. So, economy and society in urban and rural areas of Bosnia and Herzegovina are susceptible to environmental consequences of climate changes. In practice, this means that poorer countries in development of economic activities will suffer most due to climate changes, while some developed countries can be in a position to use new commercial possibilities. Presently, there is a significant scientific consensus that human activity affected the increase of atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, respectively the carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone and chlorofluorocarbon, as a result of global changes of climate that will probably change dramatically during the next centuries in Bosnia and Herzegovina. More and more intensive industrialisation and urbanisation, as well as tourism, a growing phenomenon of the 21st century, have numerous negative direct, indirect and multiplicative effects on flora and fauna habitats of Bosnia and Herzegovina. For all mentioned above, this paper tries to indicate to a need for more significant investing into tourism development, which is presently at a very low level of development in Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the past ten years a dynamical development of tertiary activities in urban and rural areas has been distinguished; among which shopping centres take a significant position. 

  9. Media coverage of climate change in Russia: governmental bias and climate silence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poberezhskaya, Marianna

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores which actors and factors influence media coverage of climate change in Russia. It does this by analysing the coverage of three events by five Russian national newspapers (Komsomol'skaya pravda, Rossiyskaya gazeta, Izvestiya, Kommersant and Sovetskaya Rossiya). The three events are the Kyoto Conference in 1997, the Copenhagen Conference in 2009 and the Russian heat-wave of 2010. This paper concludes that regardless of the ownership structure of the newspapers or their dependence on advertising, there is little difference in quantity and quality of overall coverage on climate change. With most newspapers relying on Russian officials as information sources, almost none criticise or question Russian climate policy. Furthermore, the article concludes that, in Russia, the omission of climate change issues from discussion in national newspapers becomes a greater problem than biased coverage, as the lack of commentary decidedly prevents these issues from entering the public debate. © The Author(s) 2014.

  10. Ecosystem processes and human influences regulate streamflow response to climate change at long-term ecological research sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julia A. Jones; Irena F. Creed; Kendra L. Hatcher; Robert J. Warren; Mary Beth Adams; Melinda H. Benson; Emery Boose; Warren A. Brown; John L. Campbell; Alan Covich; David W. Clow; Clifford N. Dahm; Kelly Elder; Chelcy R. Ford; Nancy B. Grimm; Donald L Henshaw; Kelli L. Larson; Evan S. Miles; Kathleen M. Miles; Stephen D. Sebestyen; Adam T. Spargo; Asa B. Stone; James M. Vose; Mark W. Williams

    2012-01-01

    Analyses of long-term records at 35 headwater basins in the United States and Canada indicate that climate change effects on streamflow are not as clear as might be expected, perhaps because of ecosystem processes and human influences. Evapotranspiration was higher than was predicted by temperature in water-surplus ecosystems and lower than was predicted in water-...

  11. Communication and marketing as climate change-intervention assets a public health perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maibach, Edward W; Roser-Renouf, Connie; Leiserowitz, Anthony

    2008-11-01

    The understanding that global climate change represents a profound threat to the health and well-being of human and nonhuman species worldwide is growing. This article examines the potential of communication and marketing interventions to influence population behavior in ways consistent with climate change prevention and adaptation objectives. Specifically, using a framework based on an ecologic model of public health, the paper examines: (1) the potential of communication and marketing interventions to influence population behaviors of concern, including support for appropriate public policies; (2) potential target audiences for such programs; and (3) the attributes of effective climate change messages. Communication and marketing interventions appear to have considerable potential to promote important population behavior change objectives, but there is an urgent need for additional translational research to effectively harvest this potential to combat climate change.

  12. Public Views on Climate Change. European and USA Perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lorenzoni, I.; Pidgeon, N.F.

    2006-01-01

    If uncontrolled, human influences on the climate system may generate changes that will endanger various aspects of life on Earth. The precise implications of the scientific claims about climate change, and the extent to which they pose dangers to various populations, are becoming intensely debated at many levels in relation to policy. How 'danger' is interpreted will ultimately affect which actions are taken. In this paper, we examine how climate change is conceptualised by publics in Europe and in the USA. Although there is widespread concern about climate change, it is of secondary importance in comparison to other issues in people's daily lives. Most individuals relate to climate change through personal experience, knowledge, the balance of benefits and costs, and trust in other societal actors. We analyse these factors through findings from various surveys and studies, which highlight both the distinctiveness and some shared perspectives at a generalised level. We reflect upon these in relation to trust and responsibility for climate change action, and risk communication, supporting the call for discourses about climate change to also be situated in people's locality, as a means of increasing its saliency

  13. Public Inaccuracy in Meta-perceptions of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swim, J.; Fraser, J.

    2012-12-01

    Public perceptions of climate change and meta-perceptions of the public and climate scientist's perceptions of climate change were assessed to benchmark the National Network for Climate Change Interpretation's impacts. Meta-perceptions are important to examine because they can have implications for willingness to take action to address climate change. For instance, recent research suggests a tendency to misperceive that there is disagreement among climate scientists is predictive of lack of support for climate change policies. Underestimating public concern about climate change could also be problematic: it could lead individuals to withdraw from personal efforts to reduce impact and engage others in discussions about climate change. Presented results will demonstrate that respondents in a national survey underestimated the percent of the public who were very concerned, concerned or cautious about climate change and overestimated the extent others were disengaged, doubted, or non-believers. They underestimated the percent of the public who likely believed that humans caused climate change and overestimate the percent that believed climate change was not happening nor human induced. Finally, they underestimated the percent of the public that believed climate change threatened ocean health. The results also explore sources of misperceptions. First, correlates with TV viewing habits suggest that inaccuracy is a result of too little attention to network news, with one exception: Greater attention to FOX among doubters reduced accuracy. Second, adding to other evidence that basic cognitive heuristics (such as availability heuristic) influence perceptions of climate change, we show that that false consensus effects account for meta-perceptions of the public and climate scientists beliefs. The false consensus effect, in combination with underestimating concern among the public, results in those most concerned about climate change and those who believe it to be human

  14. Learning to Adapt. Organisational Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berkhout, F.; Hertin, J.; Gann, D.M.

    2006-01-01

    Analysis of human adaptation to climate change should be based on realistic models of adaptive behaviour at the level of organisations and individuals. The paper sets out a framework for analysing adaptation to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in business organisations with new evidence presented from empirical research into adaptation in nine case-study companies. It argues that adaptation to climate change has many similarities with processes of organisational learning. The paper suggests that business organisations face a number of obstacles in learning how to adapt to climate change impacts, especially in relation to the weakness and ambiguity of signals about climate change and the uncertainty about benefits flowing from adaptation measures. Organisations rarely adapt 'autonomously', since their adaptive behaviour is influenced by policy and market conditions, and draws on resources external to the organisation. The paper identifies four adaptation strategies that pattern organisational adaptive behaviour

  15. Modelling rainfall erosion resulting from climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnell, Peter

    2016-04-01

    It is well known that soil erosion leads to agricultural productivity decline and contributes to water quality decline. The current widely used models for determining soil erosion for management purposes in agriculture focus on long term (~20 years) average annual soil loss and are not well suited to determining variations that occur over short timespans and as a result of climate change. Soil loss resulting from rainfall erosion is directly dependent on the product of runoff and sediment concentration both of which are likely to be influenced by climate change. This presentation demonstrates the capacity of models like the USLE, USLE-M and WEPP to predict variations in runoff and erosion associated with rainfall events eroding bare fallow plots in the USA with a view to modelling rainfall erosion in areas subject to climate change.

  16. Gray Wolves as Climate Change Buffers in Yellowstone

    OpenAIRE

    Wilmers Christopher C; Getz Wayne M; Getz Wayne M

    2005-01-01

    Understanding the mechanisms by which climate and predation patterns by top predators co-vary to affect community structure accrues added importance as humans exert growing influence over both climate and regional predator assemblages. In Yellowstone National Park, winter conditions and reintroduced gray wolves (Canis lupus) together determine the availability of winter carrion on which numerous scavenger species depend for survival and reproduction. As climate changes in Yellowstone, therefo...

  17. Gray wolves as climate change buffers in Yellowstone.

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher C Wilmers; Wayne M Getz

    2005-01-01

    Understanding the mechanisms by which climate and predation patterns by top predators co-vary to affect community structure accrues added importance as humans exert growing influence over both climate and regional predator assemblages. In Yellowstone National Park, winter conditions and reintroduced gray wolves (Canis lupus) together determine the availability of winter carrion on which numerous scavenger species depend for survival and reproduction. As climate changes in Yellowstone, therefo...

  18. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perthuis, Ch. de; Delbosc, A.

    2009-01-01

    Received ideas about climatic change are a mixture of right and wrong information. The authors use these ideas as starting points to shade light on what we really know and what we believe to know. The book is divided in three main chapters: should we act in front of climatic change? How can we efficiently act? How can we equitably act? For each chapter a series of received ideas is analyzed in order to find those which can usefully contribute to mitigate the environmental, economical and social impacts of climatic change. (J.S.)

  19. Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lake, Iain R; Jones, Natalia R; Agnew, Maureen; Goodess, Clare M; Giorgi, Filippo; Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda; Semenov, Mikhail A; Solomon, Fabien; Storkey, Jonathan; Vautard, Robert; Epstein, Michelle M

    2017-03-01

    Globally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans. We produced quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed ( Ambrosia artemisiifolia ) in Europe. A process-based model estimated the change in ragweed's range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into health burdens using a dose-response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5], and three different plant invasion scenarios. Our primary estimates indicated that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041-2060. According to our projections, sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g., Hungary, the Balkans), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g., Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may also increase the severity of symptoms. Our model projections were driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%) but were also influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe had a large influence upon the results. Our quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change. Citation: Lake IR

  20. Uncovering Local Impacts – The Influence of Transnational Municipal Climate Networks on Urban Climate Governance

    OpenAIRE

    Busch, Henner; Bendlin, Lena; Fenton, Paul; Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik

    2018-01-01

    In recent years, many cities have joined transnational municipal climate networks (TMCNs), which were set up in response to climate change. Despite the fact that some of these TMCNs have been active for more than two decades, there has been no systematic investigation of the networks’ impact on local climate governance. In this article we attempt to answer if and how local climate governance has been influenced by municipalities’ memberships in TMCNs. Our assessment is based on an online surv...

  1. European research on Climat change impact on human health and environment

    OpenAIRE

    Pogonysheva I. A.; Kuznetsova V. P.; Pogonyshev D. A.; Lunyak I. I.

    2018-01-01

    European countries have accumulated a considerable body of research that proves both direct and indirect influence of climate change on human health. The article analyses “Protecting health in an environment challenged by climate change: European Regional Framework for Action”. The article gives a detailed analysis of the work of European Office of World Health Organisation and The United Nations Economic Commission for Europe related to climate change.

  2. Managing climate change risk : emerging financial sector expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, R.

    2004-01-01

    Engagement of the financial sector in the climate change debate is apparent, with social investors and advocacy groups launching 32 climate change related shareholder resolutions with American and Canadian energy companies in 2003. Eos Research and Consulting Ltd. recently conducted a study to examine emerging standards for how energy companies manage climate change related risks. A survey was conducted in the first part of the study to determine the environmental awareness of energy companies. Financial firms were asked whether they sought information concerning GHG inventories; projections of future emissions; action plans for addressing climate change and energy efficiency; evaluation of relative risk; estimation of cost of carbon; assessment of financial impact; evaluation of future regulations; and emissions trading activity. The second part of the study compared the response of 11 leading energy companies. The result was 2 opposing views on how climate change risks should be managed. The survey revealed that while most mainstream financial institutions are not paying much attention to climate change issues, socially responsible investment (SRI) investors are aware and working to factor climate change risk management information into their activities. In addition, SRI is growing at a faster pace than other investment segments, which may lead to greater future expectations for energy companies' climate change risk management efforts. It was concluded that the financial sector may emerge as an important source of direction that will guide energy companies in their future efforts to manage climate change risks. The five trends that contribute to the sector's emerging role are the continuing influence of advocacy groups; evolution of socially responsible approaches to investment; growing concerns for reputation; development of financial risk assessment approaches in terms of climate change; and, increase focus on corporate governance issues. 15 refs., 2 tabs., 1

  3. Interactions of Climate Change, Air Pollution, and Human Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinney, Patrick L

    2018-03-01

    I review literature on the impacts of climate change on air quality and human health, with a focus on articles published from 2013 on ozone and airborne particles. Selected previous literature is discussed where relevant in tracing the origins of our current knowledge. Climate and weather have strong influences on the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollution concentrations. Emissions of ozone and PM 2.5 precursors increase at higher ambient temperatures. The reactions that form ozone occur faster with greater sunlight and higher temperatures. Weather systems influence the movement and dispersion of air pollutants in the atmosphere through the action of winds, vertical mixing, and precipitation, all of which are likely to alter in a changing climate. Recent studies indicate that, holding anthropogenic air pollution emissions constant, ozone concentrations in populated regions will tend to increase in future climate scenarios. For the USA, the climate impact on ozone is most consistently seen in north-central and north-eastern states, with the potential for many thousands of additional ozone-related deaths. The sensitivity of anthropogenic PM 2.5 to climate is more variable across studies and regions, owing to the varied nature of PM constituents, as well as to less complete characterization of PM reaction chemistry in available atmospheric models. However, PM emitted by wildland fires is likely to become an increasing health risk in many parts of the world as climate continues to change. The complex interactions between climate change and air quality imply that future policies to mitigate these twin challenges will benefit from greater coordination. Assessing the health implications of alternative policy approaches towards climate and pollution mitigation will be a critical area of future work.

  4. [Climate change - physical and mental consequences].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunz, Maxie; Mücke, Hans-Guido

    2017-06-01

    Climate change has already had a large influence on the human environmental system and directly or indirectly affects physical and mental health. Triggered by extreme meteorological conditions, for example, storms, floods, earth slides and heat periods, the direct consequences range from illnesses to serious accidents with injuries, or in extreme cases fatalities. Indirectly, a changed environment due to climate change affects, amongst other things, the cardiovascular system and respiratory tract, and can also cause allergies and infectious diseases. In addition, increasing confrontation with environmental impacts may cause negative psychological effects such as posttraumatic stress disorders and anxiety, but also aggression, distress and depressive symptoms. The extent and severity of the health consequences depend on individual pre-disposition, resilience, behaviour and adaptation.

  5. Chapter 3: Climate change at multiple scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constance Millar; Ron Neilson; Dominique Bachelet; Ray Drapek; Jim Lenihan

    2006-01-01

    Concepts about the natural world influence approaches to forest management. In the popular press, climate change inevitably refers to global warming, greenhouse gas impacts, novel anthropogenic (human-induced) threats, and international politics. There is, however, a larger context that informs our understanding of changes that are occurring - that is, Earth’...

  6. Climate change governance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knieling, Joerg [HafenCity Univ. Hamburg (Germany). Urban Planning and Regional Development; Leal Filho, Walter (eds.) [HAW Hamburg (Germany). Research and Transfer Centre Applications of Life Science

    2013-07-01

    Climate change is a cause for concern both globally and locally. In order for it to be tackled holistically, its governance is an important topic needing scientific and practical consideration. Climate change governance is an emerging area, and one which is closely related to state and public administrative systems and the behaviour of private actors, including the business sector, as well as the civil society and non-governmental organisations. Questions of climate change governance deal both with mitigation and adaptation whilst at the same time trying to devise effective ways of managing the consequences of these measures across the different sectors. Many books have been produced on general matters related to climate change, such as climate modelling, temperature variations, sea level rise, but, to date, very few publications have addressed the political, economic and social elements of climate change and their links with governance. This book will address this gap. Furthermore, a particular feature of this book is that it not only presents different perspectives on climate change governance, but it also introduces theoretical approaches and brings these together with practical examples which show how main principles may be implemented in practice.

  7. Characterizing the impact of projected changes in climate and ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The impact of climate change on human and environmental health is of critical concern. Population exposures to air pollutants both indoors and outdoors are influenced by a wide range of air quality, meteorological, behavioral, and housing-related factors, many of which are also impacted by climate change. An integrated methodology for modeling changes in human exposures to tropospheric ozone (O3) owing to potential future changes in climate and demographics was implemented by linking existing modeling tools for climate, weather, air quality, population distribution, and human exposure. Human exposure results from the Air Pollutants Exposure Model (APEX) for 12 US cities show differences in daily maximum 8-h (DM8H) exposure patterns and levels by sex, age, and city for all scenarios. When climate is held constant and population demographics are varied, minimal difference in O3 exposures is predicted even with the most extreme demographic change scenario. In contrast, when population is held constant, we see evidence of substantial changes in O3 exposure for the most extreme change in climate. Similarly, we see increases in the percentage of the population in each city with at least one O3 exposure exceedance above 60 p.p.b and 70 p.p.b thresholds for future changes in climate. For these climate and population scenarios, the impact of projected changes in climate and air quality on human exposure to O3 are much larger than the impacts of changing demographics.

  8. Simulation of the influence of historical land cover changes on the global climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y. [Nanjing Univ. of Aeronautics and Astronautics (China). College of Civil Aviation; Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia; Yan, X. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia; Beijing Normal Univ. (China). State Key Lab. of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE); Wang, Z. [British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge (United Kingdom)

    2013-09-01

    In order to estimate biogeophysical effects of historical land cover change on climate during last three centuries, a set of experiments with a climate system model of intermediate complexity (MPM-2) is performed. In response to historical deforestation, the model simulates a decrease in annual mean global temperature in the range of 0.07-0.14 C based on different grassland albedos. The effect of land cover changes is most pronounced in the middle northern latitudes with maximum cooling reaching approximately 0.6 C during northern summer. The cooling reaches 0.57 C during northern spring owing to the large effects of land surface albedo. These results suggest that land cover forcing is important for study on historical climate change and that more research is necessary in the assessment of land management options for climate change mitigation. (orig.)

  9. IDRC on climate change adaptation | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2011-05-20

    May 20, 2011 ... ... communities, and their livelihoods from these environmental crises. ... Some likely lines of study are the links between climate change ... Staying on the case ... How improved water management is influencing economic and ...

  10. Climate Change as Migration Driver from Rural and Urban Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Lori M.; Runfola, Daniel M.; Riosmena, Fernando

    2015-01-01

    Studies investigating migration as a response to climate variability have largely focused on rural locations to the exclusion of urban areas. This lack of urban focus is unfortunate given the sheer numbers of urban residents and continuing high levels of urbanization. To begin filling this empirical gap, this study investigates climate change impacts on U.S.-bound migration from rural and urban Mexico, 1986–1999. We employ geostatistical interpolation methods to construct two climate change indices, capturing warm and wet spell duration, based on daily temperature and precipitation readings for 214 weather stations across Mexico. In combination with detailed migration histories obtained from the Mexican Migration Project, we model the influence of climate change on household-level migration from 68 rural and 49 urban municipalities. Results from multilevel event-history models reveal that a temperature warming and excessive precipitation significantly increased international migration during the study period. However, climate change impacts on international migration is only observed for rural areas. Interactions reveal a causal pathway in which temperature (but not precipitation) influences migration patterns through employment in the agricultural sector. As such, climate-related international migration may decline with continued urbanization and the resulting reductions in direct dependence of households on rural agriculture. PMID:26692890

  11. Climate Change as Migration Driver from Rural and Urban Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nawrotzki, Raphael J; Hunter, Lori M; Runfola, Daniel M; Riosmena, Fernando

    2015-11-01

    Studies investigating migration as a response to climate variability have largely focused on rural locations to the exclusion of urban areas. This lack of urban focus is unfortunate given the sheer numbers of urban residents and continuing high levels of urbanization. To begin filling this empirical gap, this study investigates climate change impacts on U.S.-bound migration from rural and urban Mexico, 1986-1999. We employ geostatistical interpolation methods to construct two climate change indices, capturing warm and wet spell duration, based on daily temperature and precipitation readings for 214 weather stations across Mexico. In combination with detailed migration histories obtained from the Mexican Migration Project, we model the influence of climate change on household-level migration from 68 rural and 49 urban municipalities. Results from multilevel event-history models reveal that a temperature warming and excessive precipitation significantly increased international migration during the study period. However, climate change impacts on international migration is only observed for rural areas. Interactions reveal a causal pathway in which temperature (but not precipitation) influences migration patterns through employment in the agricultural sector. As such, climate-related international migration may decline with continued urbanization and the resulting reductions in direct dependence of households on rural agriculture.

  12. International aspects of climate change: The intergovernmental panel on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brydges, T.; Fenech, A.

    1990-01-01

    The impact of various international conferences concerning global climate change on international opinions and attitudes is discussed. A number of conferences over the past two decades have drawn attention to the large socio-economic consequences of climate change. There has been increasing attention given to the likely affect of anthropogenically derived greenhouse gases on the global climate. Some early uncertainty over the likely long term changes in global temperature have been replaced by a scientific consensus that global temperatures are increasing and will continue to do so into the next century. Public awareness of the possibility of climate change and severe socio-economic consequences has been increasing and was given a major impetus by the Toronto Conference on the Changing Atmosphere. An estimate of the possible time to solution of the climate change issue is given as 1988-2005, a span of 17 years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has focused work into three working groups examining science, impacts and response strategies. 28 refs., 3 figs., 6 tabs

  13. Stratospheric ozone, ultraviolet radiation and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, O.

    2008-01-01

    It is well known that an overexposure to ultraviolet radiation is associated with a number of health risks such as an increased risk of cataracts and skin cancers. At a time when climate change is often blamed for all our environmental problems, what is the latest news about the stratospheric ozone layer and other factors controlling ultraviolet radiation at the surface of the Earth? Will the expected changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere and changes in our climate increase or decrease the risk for skin cancer? This article investigates the role of the various factors influencing ultraviolet radiation and presents the latest knowledge on the subject. (author)

  14. Practical adaptation to climate change in regional natural resources management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiem, Anthony S.; Clifton, Craig; Jordan, Phillip

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: Recent climatic conditions (i.e. drier than average conditions for the last 10 years or more) have placed many water resource systems in south-eastern Australia near critical thresholds. Management systems are, or soon will be, at the limits of their adaptive capacity. While it is possible this situation largely reflects vulnerability to natural climatic variability, impacts of anthropogenic climate change may further expose the vulnerability of these systems. Water management in Australia has traditionally been carried out on the assumption that the historical record of rainfall, evaporation, streamflow and recharge is representative of current and future climatic conditions. In many circumstances, this does not adequately address the potential risks to supply security for towns, industry, irrigators and the environment. This is because the Australian climate varies markedly due to natural cycles that operate over periods of several years to several decades, and is also being increasingly affected by anthropogenic influences. Both factors will continue to influence Australia's climate, even if immediate action is taken to curtail greenhouse gas emissions. Long-term resource planning by water authorities must account for both climate variation and climate change to avoid over-allocation of water resources and to ensure economic activity based on utilisation of water resources is not unnecessarily restricted. Awareness of the vulnerability of water resources to anthropogenic climate change and uncertainty about the nature of those changes has lead to a reappraisal of which climate sequence(s) should be used in water resource planning

  15. The changing effects of Alaska's boreal forest on the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    E.S. Euskirchen; A.D. McGuire; F.S. Chapin; T.S. Rupp

    2010-01-01

    In the boreal forests of Alaska, recent changes in climate have influenced the exchange of trace gases, water, and energy between these forests and the atmosphere. These changes in the structure and function of boreal forests can then feed back to impact regional and global climates. We examine the type and magnitude of the climate feedbacks from boreal forests in...

  16. Energy regulations require strickter enforcement as response to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visscher, H.J.; Itard, L.C.M.; Guerra Santin, O.

    2010-01-01

    Since a few years the attention for building regulatory systems and enforcement procedures is growing. Various developments in society, politics and the construction industry have influenced changes in the systems of building control in the last 20 years. The influence of climate change and the

  17. Climate Change and Respiratory Infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirsaeidi, Mehdi; Motahari, Hooman; Taghizadeh Khamesi, Mojdeh; Sharifi, Arash; Campos, Michael; Schraufnagel, Dean E

    2016-08-01

    The rate of global warming has accelerated over the past 50 years. Increasing surface temperature is melting glaciers and raising the sea level. More flooding, droughts, hurricanes, and heat waves are being reported. Accelerated changes in climate are already affecting human health, in part by altering the epidemiology of climate-sensitive pathogens. In particular, climate change may alter the incidence and severity of respiratory infections by affecting vectors and host immune responses. Certain respiratory infections, such as avian influenza and coccidioidomycosis, are occurring in locations previously unaffected, apparently because of global warming. Young children and older adults appear to be particularly vulnerable to rapid fluctuations in ambient temperature. For example, an increase in the incidence in childhood pneumonia in Australia has been associated with sharp temperature drops from one day to the next. Extreme weather events, such as heat waves, floods, major storms, drought, and wildfires, are also believed to change the incidence of respiratory infections. An outbreak of aspergillosis among Japanese survivors of the 2011 tsunami is one such well-documented example. Changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and air pollution influence viral activity and transmission. For example, in early 2000, an outbreak of Hantavirus respiratory disease was linked to a local increase in the rodent population, which in turn was attributed to a two- to threefold increase in rainfall before the outbreak. Climate-sensitive respiratory pathogens present challenges to respiratory health that may be far greater in the foreseeable future.

  18. The influence of climate-warming on the power production of Swiss hydroelectric power stations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schaeppi, A.

    2006-01-01

    This article summarises an interview with Michael Piot of the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) on a study commissioned by the office that takes a look at the influence of a possible climate warming on water flow in the Swiss alpine area. In particular, the influence of such possible changes on the Swiss power generation industry are looked at. Prognoses for climate change are reviewed, as are the results of a study made by the SFOE on energy perspectives for the period up to the year 2035. Possible changes in the alpine climate are discussed and their influence on the water household of the region is examined. Possible further and more drastic changes in the period up to 2099 are briefly commented on

  19. Global vs climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, H.L.; Bach, M.C.; Goklany, I.M.

    1991-01-01

    The various agents of global change that will affect the state of natural resources 50-100 years from now are discussed. These include economic and population growth, technological progress, and climatic change. The importance of climatic change lies in its effects on natural resources and on human activities that depend on those resources. Other factors affecting those resources include the demand on those resources from an increasing population and from a growing economy, and a more efficient use of those resources that comes from technological changes and from the consequences of economic growth itself. It is shown that there is a considerable ability to adapt to climatic change, since humans already have an intrinsic ability to adapt to the wide variations in climates that already exist and since technological developments can make it easier to cope with climatic variability. It appears that agents other than climatic change are more significant to the future state of natural resources than climatic change. Criteria for selecting options for addressing climatic change are outlined. Technological change and economic growth are seen to be key response options, since the vulnerability to climatic change depends on economic resources and technological progress. Specific options to stimulate sustainable economic growth and technological progress are listed. 16 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  20. Estimation of water storage changes in small endorheic lakes in Burabay National Nature Park (Northern Kazakhstan, Central Asia); the effect of climate change and anthropogenic influences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yapiyev, Vadim; Sagintayev, Zhanay; Verhoef, Anne; Samarkhanov, Kanat; Jumassultanova, Saltanat

    2017-04-01

    Both climate change and anthropogenic activities contribute to deterioration of terrestrial water resources and ecosystems worldwide. It has been observed in recent decades that water-limited steppe regions of Central Asia are among ecosystems found to exhibit enhanced responses to climate variability. In fact, the largest share of worldwide net loss of permanent water extent is geographically concentrated in the Central Asia and Middle East regions attributed to both climate variability/change and human activities impacts. We used a digital elevation model, digitized bathymetry maps and high resolution Landsat images to estimate the areal water cover extent and volumetric storage changes in small terminal lakes in Burabay National Nature Park (BNNP), located in Northern Central Asia, for the period 2000-2016. Based on the analysis of long-term climatic data from meteorological stations, hydrometeorological network observations as well as regional climate model projections we evaluate the impacts of past thirty years and future climatic conditions on the water balance of BNNP lake catchments. The anthropogenic water consumption was estimated based on data collected at a local water supply company and regulation authorities. One the one hand historical in-situ observations and future climate projections do not show a significant change in precipitation in BNNP. On the other hand both observations and the model demonstrate steadily rising air temperatures in the area. It is concluded that the long-term decline in water levels for most of these lakes can be largely attributed to climate change (but only via changes in air temperature, causing evaporation to exceed precipitation) and not to direct anthropogenic influences such as increased water withdrawals. In addition, the two largest lakes, showing the highest historical water level decline, do not have sufficient water drainage basin area to sustain water levels under increased evaporation rates.

  1. A Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somerville, R. C. J.

    2015-12-01

    A climate change MOOC is a way to reach a global audience of many thousands of students. What was it like to teach climate change to an invisible class over the Internet, and how well did it work? The need to educate many people about climate change seems obvious. Climate change is one of the most important existential issues of our time. Sound science can inform wise policy, and coping successfully with climate change is surely an urgent global challenge that requires scientific input and a scientifically informed public. Today many scientists have opportunities to communicate what science has learned about climate and climate change. Yet being a scientific expert on these subjects does not necessarily mean having the skills to communicate effectively to a broad audience. Like learning to ski or to drive a car skillfully, learning to communicate climate science well takes time and effort. The MOOC format has its own special challenges. Effective communication should always resemble a conversation rather than a monologue, but a conversation can be difficult when the teacher will never see or hear from the great majority of students in the class. In addition, a well-funded and effective professional disinformation campaign has been successful in sowing widespread confusion about climate change. As a result, many people mistakenly think climate change science is unreliable or is controversial within the expert community. One can expect that some of the students taking the MOOC will have been influenced by this sort of erroneous information. Thus, one appealing topic to include in a MOOC on climate change is to give useful guidelines for recognizing and rejecting junk science and disinformation. This talk will describe one climate scientist's first-person participation in teaching a climate change MOOC.

  2. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    This paper presented indicators of climate change for British Columbia (BC) with an emphasis on the coastal region. An overview of global effects of climate change was presented, as well as details of BC's current climate change action plan. Indicators examined in the paper for the BC coastal region included long-term trends in air temperature; long-term trends in precipitation; coastal ocean temperatures; sea levels on the BC coast; and the sensitivity of the BC coast to sea level rise and erosion. Data suggested that average air temperatures have become higher in many areas, and that Springtime temperatures have become warmer over the whole province. Winters have become drier in many areas of the province. Sea surface temperature has risen over the entire coast, with the North Coast and central Strait of Georgia showing the largest increases. Deep-water temperatures have also increased in 5 inlets on the South Coast. Results suggested that the direction and spatial pattern of the climate changes reported for British Columbia are consistent with broader trends in North America and the type of changes predicted by climate models for the region. Climate change will likely result in reduced snow-pack in southern BC. An earlier spring freshet on many snow-dominated river systems is anticipated as well as glacial retreat and disappearance. Warmer temperatures in some lakes and rivers are expected, as well as the increased frequency and severity of natural disturbances such as the pine mountain beetle. Large-scale shifts in ecosystems and the loss of certain ecosystems may also occur. BC's current climate plan includes cost effective actions that address GHG emissions and support efficient infrastructure and opportunities for innovation. Management programs for forest and agricultural lands have been initiated, as well as programs to reduce emissions from government operations. Research is also being conducted to understand the impacts of climate change on water

  3. Climate challenge 2012: growth and climate change - Socio-economical impacts of climate change. Conference proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orange-Louboutin, Mylene; Robinet, Olivier; Delalande, Daniel; Reysset, Bertrand; De Perthuis, Christian; Le Treut, Herve; Cottenceau, Jean-Baptiste; Ayong, Alain; Daubaire, Aurelien; Gaudin, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    The contributions of this conference session proposed comments and discussion on the relationship between climate change and 'green' growth, on the status of scientific knowledge on climate change (from global to local), on the way to perform carbon print assessment and to decide which actions to implement, on the costs and opportunity of impacts of climate change, on the economy of adaptation, on the benefits and costs of the adaptation policy, and on impacts of climate change on employment in quantitative terms and in terms of profession types

  4. An ill wind? Climate change, migration, and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, Celia; Barnett, Jon; McMichael, Anthony J

    2012-05-01

    Climate change is projected to cause substantial increases in population movement in coming decades. Previous research has considered the likely causal influences and magnitude of such movements and the risks to national and international security. There has been little research on the consequences of climate-related migration and the health of people who move. In this review, we explore the role that health impacts of climate change may play in population movements and then examine the health implications of three types of movements likely to be induced by climate change: forcible displacement by climate impacts, resettlement schemes, and migration as an adaptive response. This risk assessment draws on research into the health of refugees, migrants, and people in resettlement schemes as analogs of the likely health consequences of climate-related migration. Some account is taken of the possible modulation of those health risks by climate change. Climate-change-related migration is likely to result in adverse health outcomes, both for displaced and for host populations, particularly in situations of forced migration. However, where migration and other mobility are used as adaptive strategies, health risks are likely to be minimized, and in some cases there will be health gains. Purposeful and timely policy interventions can facilitate the mobility of people, enhance well-being, and maximize social and economic development in both places of origin and places of destination. Nevertheless, the anticipated occurrence of substantial relocation of groups and communities will underscore the fundamental seriousness of human-induced climate change.

  5. Climate Change Vulnerability of Agro-Ecosystems: Does socio-economic factors matters?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surendran Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.; King, A. W.; Mei, R.; Post, W. M.

    2013-12-01

    Climate variability and change has direct impacts on agriculture. Despite continual adaptation to climate as well as gains in technology innovation and adoption, agriculture is still vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation expected in coming decades. Generally, researchers use two major methodologies to understand the vulnerability of agro-ecosystems to climate change: process-based crop models and empirical models. However, these models are not yet designed to capture the influence of socioeconomic systems on agro-ecosystem processes and outcomes.. However, socioeconomic processes are an important factor driving agro-ecological responses to biophysical processes (climate, topography and soil), because of the role of human agency in mediating the response of agro-ecosystems to climate. We have developed a framework that integrates socioeconomic and biophysical characteristics of agro-ecosystems using cluster analysis and GIS tools. This framework has been applied to the U.S. Southeast to define unique socio-ecological domains for agriculture. The results demonstrate that socioeconomic characteristics are an important factor influencing agriculture production. These results suggest that the lack of attention to socioeconomic conditions and human agency in agro-ecological modeling creates a potential bias with respect to the representation of climate change impacts.

  6. Carbon: change of climate, but no worldwide catastrophe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grassl, H; Kempe, S; Spitzy, A

    1981-03-21

    The combustion of nearly all available coal, petroleum and natural gas supplies in the next 150 years which has been formed over 600 million years of earth's history, has resulted in man starting the largest conceivable geochemical experiment, without knowing whether and how the hence increased CO/sub 2/ content of the atmosphere is going to alter the climate. Predictions of the time change of the climate and its influence on the food basis are very hard to make. The authors working at the International Carbon Centre at Hamburg within the framework of the SCOPE/UNEP program analyze various climate models and conclude that the changing climate with or without CO/sub 2/ will cause costs in industrial countries as well as catastrophes in the development countries.

  7. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Dawson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1 climate loading dependence; (2 mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3 multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.

  8. Inadvertent weather modification urban areas - lessons for global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Changnon, S A [Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, IL (USA)

    1992-05-01

    Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the USA's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multidisciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioural implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally.

  9. Inadvertent weather modification urban areas - lessons for global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changnon, S.A.

    1992-01-01

    Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the USA's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multidisciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioural implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally

  10. Understanding the school 'climate': secondary school children and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kovacs, Susan; Bernier, Sandrine; Blanchet, Aymeric; Derkenne, Chantal; Clement, Florence; Petitjean, Leslie

    2012-01-01

    This interdisciplinary study analyzes the production, circulation and reception of messages on climate change in secondary schools in France. The objective is to understand how political and educational policy initiatives influence the ways in which schools contribute to creating youngsters' perceptions and opinions about climate change. In order to study the conditions of production and reception of information about climate change, a survey was conducted in four French secondary schools, in the 'Bas Rhin' and 'Nord' departments, and local political actors in each department were interviewed. The cross disciplinary analytical and methodological approach uses the tools of sociological inquiry, information science, and political science: questionnaires and interviews were conducted with members of the educational and governmental communities of each school and department, semiotic and discursive analyses of corpuses of documents were carried out, in order to characterize documents used by students and teachers at school or in more informal contexts; the nature and extent of the relations between the political contexts and school directives and programs were also discussed. This interdisciplinary approach, combining sociological, communicational, and political methods, was chosen in response to the hypothesis that three types of variables (social, communicational and political) contribute to the structuring and production of messages about climate change in schools. This report offers a contextualized overview of activities developed within the four secondary schools to help sensitize children to the risks associated with climate change. A study of the networks of individuals (teachers, staff, members of associations, etc.) created in and around the school environment is presented. The degree of involvement of these actors in climate change programs is analyzed, as it is related to their motives and objectives, to the school discipline taught, and to the position

  11. Can Knowledge Deficit Explain Societal Perception of Climate Change Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, R.; McNeal, K.; Bondell, H.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change literacy efforts have had a rough journey in the past decade. Although scientists have become increasingly convinced about anthropological climate change, change in public opinion has been underwhelming. The unexplained gap between scientific consensus and public opinion has made this topic an important research area in the realm of public understanding of science. Recent research on climate change risk perception (CCRP) has advanced an intriguing hypothesis, namely, cultural cognition thesis (CCT), which posits that the public has adequate knowledge to understand climate change science but people tend to use this knowledge solely to promote their culturally motivated view-point of climate change. This talk provides evidence to demonstrate that despite culture playing a significant role in influencing CCRP, knowledge deficiency remains a persistent problem in our society and contributes to the aforementioned gap. However, such deficits can remain undiagnosed due to limitations of survey design.

  12. Influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of European cities to flooding during high-intensity precipitation

    OpenAIRE

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Høegh Ravn, Nanna; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Madsen, H.; Drews, Martin

    2015-01-01

    The extent and location of impervious surfaces within urban areas due to past and present city development strongly affects the amount and velocity of run-off during high-intensity rainfall and consequently influences the exposure of cities towards flooding. The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall are expected to increase in many places due to climate change and thus further exacerbate the risk of pluvial flooding. This paper presents a combined hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling and...

  13. People as sensors: mass media and local temperature influence climate change discussion on Twitter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirilenko, A.; Molodtsova, T.; Stepchenkova, S.

    2014-12-01

    We examined whether people living under significant temperature anomalies connect their sensory experiences to climate change and the role that media plays in this process. We used Twitter messages containing words "climate change" and "global warming" as the indicator of attention that public pays to the issue. Specifically, the goals were: (1) to investigate whether people immediately notice significant local weather anomalies and connect them to climate change and (2) to examine the role of mass media in this process. Over 2 million tweets were collected for a two-year period (2012 - 2013) and were assigned to 157 urban areas in the continental USA (Figure 1). Geographical locations of the tweets were identified with a geolocation resolving algorithm based the profile of the users. Daily number of tweets (tweeting rate) was computed for 157 conterminous USA urban areas and adjusted for data acquisition errors. The USHCN daily minimum and maximum temperatures were obtained for the station locations closest to the centers of the urban areas and the 1981-2010 30-year temperature mean and standard deviation were used as the climate normals. For the analysis, we computed the following indices for each day of 2012 - 2013 period: standardized temperature anomaly, absolute standardized temperature anomaly, and extreme cold and hot temperature anomalies for each urban zone. The extreme cold and hot temperature anomalies were then transformed into country-level values that represent the number of people living in extreme temperature conditions. The rate of tweeting on climate change was regressed on the time variables, number of climate change publications in the mass media, and temperature. In the majority of regression models, the mass media and temperature variables were significant at the pmedia acts as a mediator in the relationship between local weather and climate change discourse intensity. Our analysis of Twitter data confirmed that the public is able to

  14. Microbial contributions to climate change through carbon cycle feedbacks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardgett, Richard D; Freeman, Chris; Ostle, Nicholas J

    2008-08-01

    There is considerable interest in understanding the biological mechanisms that regulate carbon exchanges between the land and atmosphere, and how these exchanges respond to climate change. An understanding of soil microbial ecology is central to our ability to assess terrestrial carbon cycle-climate feedbacks, but the complexity of the soil microbial community and the many ways that it can be affected by climate and other global changes hampers our ability to draw firm conclusions on this topic. In this paper, we argue that to understand the potential negative and positive contributions of soil microbes to land-atmosphere carbon exchange and global warming requires explicit consideration of both direct and indirect impacts of climate change on microorganisms. Moreover, we argue that this requires consideration of complex interactions and feedbacks that occur between microbes, plants and their physical environment in the context of climate change, and the influence of other global changes which have the capacity to amplify climate-driven effects on soil microbes. Overall, we emphasize the urgent need for greater understanding of how soil microbial ecology contributes to land-atmosphere carbon exchange in the context of climate change, and identify some challenges for the future. In particular, we highlight the need for a multifactor experimental approach to understand how soil microbes and their activities respond to climate change and consequences for carbon cycle feedbacks.

  15. Farm Level Adaptation to Climate Change: The Case of Farmer's in the Ethiopian Highlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

    2013-07-01

    In Ethiopia, climate change and associated risks are expected to have serious consequences for agriculture and food security. This in turn will seriously impact on the welfare of the people, particularly the rural farmers whose main livelihood depends on rain-fed agriculture. The level of impacts will mainly depend on the awareness and the level of adaptation in response to the changing climate. It is thus important to understand the role of the different factors that influence farmers' adaptation to ensure the development of appropriate policy measures and the design of successful development projects. This study examines farmers' perception of change in climatic attributes and the factors that influence farmers' choice of adaptation measures to climate change and variability. The estimated results from the climate change adaptation models indicate that level of education, age and wealth of the head of the household; access to credit and agricultural services; information on climate, and temperature all influence farmers' choices of adaptation. Moreover, lack of information on adaptation measures and lack of finance are seen as the main factors inhibiting adaptation to climate change. These conclusions were obtained with a Multinomial logit model, employing the results from a survey of 400 smallholder farmers in three districts in Tigray, northern Ethiopian.

  16. RURAL FARMERS’ PERCEPTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN CENTRAL AGRICULTURAL ZONE OF DELTA STATE, NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.U. Ofuoku

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Farmer perception of their environment is a factor of climate change. Adaptation to climate change requires farmers to realize that the climate has changed and they must identify useful adaptations and implement them. This study analyzed the per-ception of climate change among rural farmers in central agri-cultural zone of Delta State, Nigeria. Climate change studies often assume certain adaptations and minimal examination of how, when, why, and conditions under which adaptations usually take place in any economic and social systems. The study was conducted by survey method on 131 respondents using struc-tured interview schedule and questionnaire. Data were analyzed with descriptive statistics and linear regression model to test that education, gender, and farming experience influenced farmers’ perception of climate change. The results showed that the farmers were aware of climate change. The identified causes of climate change were ranging from intensified agriculture, population explosion, increased use of fossil fuel, loss of in-digenous know practice to gas flaring. The effects of climate change on crops and livestocks were also identified by the rural farmers. Many of the farmers adapted to climate change by planting trees, carrying out soil conservation practice, changing planting dates, using different crop varieties, installing fans in livestock pens, and applying irrigation. Almost half of them did not adapt to climate change. The linear regression analysis revealed that education, gender, and farming experience influ-enced farmers’ perception of climate change. The major barriers to adaptation to climate change included lack of information, lack of money, and inadequate land.

  17. Influence of climatic changes on pollution levels in the Balkan Peninsula

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zlatev, Z.; Georgiev, K.; Dimov, I.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of the paper is to study the influence of future climatic changes on some high pollution levels that can cause damages on plants, animals and human beings. The particular area of interest is the Balkan Peninsula. Four important quantities have been selected: (a) annual concentrations, (b......) AOT40C (high AOT40C values can cause damages on plants and, first and foremost, crops), (c) AOT40F (high AOT40F values can cause damages on forest trees), (d) number of "bad days" (large numbers of "bad days" can cause damage to people suffering from asthmatic diseases). Critical levels...... of these scenarios, are carefully studied. The major conclusion is that the increase of the temperature, alone or in combination with some other factors, leads to rather considerable increases of some pollution levels, which might become dangerous for the environment. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  18. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    The indicators in this bulletin are part of a national set of environmental indicators designed to provide a profile of the state of Canada's environment and measure progress towards sustainable development. A review of potential impacts on Canada shows that such changes would have wide-ranging implications for its economic sectors, social well-being including human health, and ecological systems. This document looks at the natural state of greenhouse gases which help regulate the Earth's climate. Then it looks at human influence and what is being done about it. The document then examines some indicators: Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use; global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases; and global and Canadian temperature variations

  19. Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The populations, infrastructure and ecology of cities are at risk from the impacts of climate change which affect urban ventilation and cooling, urban drainage and flood risk and water resources. Built areas exert considerable influence over their local climate and environment, and urban populations are already facing a ...

  20. Climate change: where to now?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pearman, Graeme

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: The potential for human impact on global climate arose out of an understanding developed in the 19th century of the physical conditions influencing global temperatures. In the past three decades, observations and improved understanding of climate processes have led to the conclusions that the planet has warmed, this warming has been primarily due to increases of atmospheric greenhouse gases and that this has been due to human activities. But our knowledge is incomplete. The management of the risks associated with future climate change demands improvement of the knowledge base. Specific areas for improvement include the: role of aerosols in the amelioration or otherwise of warming trends; potential instability of systems, e.g. the deglaciation of Greenland that could lead to rapid destabilisation of climate; response of biological systems to climate change, their phrenology, behaviour, genetics and dispersion; opportunities for cost-effective managed adaptation; and improved technologies for meeting the energy demands. Climate science has been characterised by a level of integration of disciplinary fields uncommon in other areas. Yet the nature of the climate system, its diverse impacts and the range of mitigation options suggests that while disciplinary endeavours need to continue, further integration is required. Policy development requires the exploration of options that respect the complexity of climate and its impacts but also the pluralistic aspirations of societies. The 21st century should be characterised by considered, inclusive and strategic policy development. For science to contribute to this process, much more attention is needed to the processes involved in the exchange of knowledge between the scientific community and those who develop public or private policy. A new engagement and shared understanding of the potential role of science in modern societies, particularly with respect to climate change, is an essential component of

  1. Climate change, phenology, and butterfly host plant utilization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro-Cano, Jose A; Karlsson, Bengt; Posledovich, Diana; Toftegaard, Tenna; Wiklund, Christer; Ehrlén, Johan; Gotthard, Karl

    2015-01-01

    Knowledge of how species interactions are influenced by climate warming is paramount to understand current biodiversity changes. We review phenological changes of Swedish butterflies during the latest decades and explore potential climate effects on butterfly-host plant interactions using the Orange tip butterfly Anthocharis cardamines and its host plants as a model system. This butterfly has advanced its appearance dates substantially, and its mean flight date shows a positive correlation with latitude. We show that there is a large latitudinal variation in host use and that butterfly populations select plant individuals based on their flowering phenology. We conclude that A. cardamines is a phenological specialist but a host species generalist. This implies that thermal plasticity for spring development influences host utilization of the butterfly through effects on the phenological matching with its host plants. However, the host utilization strategy of A. cardamines appears to render it resilient to relatively large variation in climate.

  2. Climate Change Risk Perception in Taiwan: Correlation with Individual and Societal Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yingying; Han, Ziqiang

    2018-01-08

    This study differentiates the risk perception and influencing factors of climate change along the dimensions of global severity and personal threat. Using the 2013 Taiwan Social Change Survey (TSGS) data (N = 2001) as a representative sample of adults from Taiwan, we investigated the influencing factors of the risk perceptions of climate change in these two dimensions (global severity and personal threat). Logistic regression models were used to examine the correlations of individual factors (gender, age, education, climate-related disaster experience and risk awareness, marital status, employment status, household income, and perceived social status) and societal factors (religion, organizational embeddedness, and political affiliations) with the above two dimensions. The results demonstrate that climate-related disaster experience has no significant impact on either the perception of global severity or the perception of personal impact. However, climate-related risk awareness (regarding typhoons, in particular) is positively associated with both dimensions of the perceived risks of climate change. With higher education, individuals are more concerned about global severity than personal threat. Regarding societal factors, the supporters of political parties have higher risk perceptions of climate change than people who have no party affiliation. Religious believers have higher risk perceptions of personal threat than non-religious people. This paper ends with a discussion about the effectiveness of efforts to enhance risk perception of climate change with regard to global severity and personal threat.

  3. Exploiting temporal variability to understand tree recruitment response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ines Ibanez; James S. Clark; Shannon LaDeau; Janneke Hill Ris Lambers

    2007-01-01

    Predicting vegetation shifts under climate change is a challenging endeavor, given the complex interactions between biotic and abiotic variables that influence demographic rates. To determine how current trends and variation in climate change affect seedling establishment, we analyzed demographic responses to spatiotemporal variation to temperature and soil moisture in...

  4. Climate Change Assessments for Lakes Region of Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayten Erol

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is one of the most important challenges for forestry. Forests are known to be most efficient natural tools to ensure availability and quality of water in many regions. Besides, planning of forest resources towards water quality and quantity is essential in countries that are expected to face with more frequent drought periods in the next decades due to climate change. Watershed management concept has been supposed as the primary tool to plan natural resources in a more efficient and sustainable way by both academicians and practitioners to mitigate and adapt climate change. Forest cover among other land use types provides the best regulating mechanism to mitigate erosion, sedimentation, desertification, and pollution. In addition, climate change can potentially affect forest stand dynamics by influencing the availability of water resources. Therefore, the amount of forest cover in a watershed is an indicator of climate change mitigation and adaptation. Climate change is a concern and risk for the sustainability of water resources in Lakes Region of Turkey. The objective of this study is to make a comprehensive assessment in lake watersheds of the Lakes region considering the forest cover. For this purpose, the study gives a general view of trends in climatic parameters using Mann Kendall trend test. The results showed that Mann Kendall trend test for temperature and precipitation data is not enough to evaluate the magnitude of potential changes of climate in terms of forest cover. Understanding impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation on forest cover, runoff data should be evaluated with temperature and precipitation for watersheds of forest areas in Lakes Region.

  5. Climate change and precipitation: Detecting changes Climate change and precipitation: Detecting changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Boxel, John H

    2001-01-01

    Precipitation is one of the most, if not the most important climate parameter In most studies on climate change the emphasis is on temperature and sea level rise. Often too little attention is given to precipitation. For a large part this is due to the large spatial en temporal variability of precipitation, which makes the detection of changes difficult. This paper describes methods to detect changes in precipitation. In order to arrive at statistically significant changes one must use long time series and spatial averages containing the information from several stations. In the Netherlands the average yearly precipitation increased by 11% during the 20th century .In the temperate latitudes on the Northern Hemisphere (40-60QN) the average increase was about 7% over the 20th century and the globally averaged precipitation increased by about 3%. During the 20th century 38% of the land surface of the earth became wetter, 42% experienced little change (less than 5% change) and 20% became dryer. More important than the average precipitation is the occurrence of extremes. In the Netherlands there is a tendency to more extreme precipitations, whereas the occurrence of relatively dry months has not changed. Also in many other countries increases in heavy precipitation events are observed. All climate models predict a further increase of mean global precipitation if the carbon dioxide concentration doubles. Nevertheless some areas get dryer, others have little change and consequently there are also areas where the increase is much more than the global average. On a regional scale however there are large differences between the models. Climate models do not yet provide adequate information on changes in extreme precipitations

  6. Managing for multiple resources under climate change: national forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyce, Linda A; Blate, Geoffrey M; McNulty, Steven G; Millar, Constance I; Moser, Susanne; Neilson, Ronald P; Peterson, David L

    2009-12-01

    This study explores potential adaptation approaches in planning and management that the United States Forest Service might adopt to help achieve its goals and objectives in the face of climate change. Availability of information, vulnerability of ecological and socio-economic systems, and uncertainties associated with climate change, as well as the interacting non-climatic changes, influence selection of the adaptation approach. Resource assessments are opportunities to develop strategic information that could be used to identify and link adaptation strategies across planning levels. Within a National Forest, planning must incorporate the opportunity to identify vulnerabilities to climate change as well as incorporate approaches that allow management adjustments as the effects of climate change become apparent. The nature of environmental variability, the inevitability of novelty and surprise, and the range of management objectives and situations across the National Forest System implies that no single approach will fit all situations. A toolbox of management options would include practices focused on forestalling climate change effects by building resistance and resilience into current ecosystems, and on managing for change by enabling plants, animals, and ecosystems to adapt to climate change. Better and more widespread implementation of already known practices that reduce the impact of existing stressors represents an important "no regrets" strategy. These management opportunities will require agency consideration of its adaptive capacity, and ways to overcome potential barriers to these adaptation options.

  7. Response of switchgrass yield to future climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tulbure, Mirela G; Wimberly, Michael C; Owens, Vance N

    2012-01-01

    A climate envelope approach was used to model the response of switchgrass, a model bioenergy species in the United States, to future climate change. The model was built using general additive models (GAMs), and switchgrass yields collected at 45 field trial locations as the response variable. The model incorporated variables previously shown to be the main determinants of switchgrass yield, and utilized current and predicted 1 km climate data from WorldClim. The models were run with current WorldClim data and compared with results of predicted yield obtained using two climate change scenarios across three global change models for three time steps. Results did not predict an increase in maximum switchgrass yield but showed an overall shift in areas of high switchgrass productivity for both cytotypes. For upland cytotypes, the shift in high yields was concentrated in northern and north-eastern areas where there were increases in average growing season temperature, whereas for lowland cultivars the areas where yields were projected to increase were associated with increases in average early growing season precipitation. These results highlight the fact that the influences of climate change on switchgrass yield are spatially heterogeneous and vary depending on cytotype. Knowledge of spatial distribution of suitable areas for switchgrass production under climate change should be incorporated into planning of current and future biofuel production. Understanding how switchgrass yields will be affected by future changes in climate is important for achieving a sustainable biofuels economy. (letter)

  8. Predictors of public climate change awareness and risk perception around the world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Tien Ming; Markowitz, Ezra M.; Howe, Peter D.; Ko, Chia-Ying; Leiserowitz, Anthony A.

    2015-11-01

    Climate change is a threat to human societies and natural ecosystems, yet public opinion research finds that public awareness and concern vary greatly. Here, using an unprecedented survey of 119 countries, we determine the relative influence of socio-demographic characteristics, geography, perceived well-being, and beliefs on public climate change awareness and risk perceptions at national scales. Worldwide, educational attainment is the single strongest predictor of climate change awareness. Understanding the anthropogenic cause of climate change is the strongest predictor of climate change risk perceptions, particularly in Latin America and Europe, whereas perception of local temperature change is the strongest predictor in many African and Asian countries. However, other key factors associated with public awareness and risk perceptions highlight the need to develop tailored climate communication strategies for individual nations. The results suggest that improving basic education, climate literacy, and public understanding of the local dimensions of climate change are vital to public engagement and support for climate action.

  9. Evaluating U.S. States climate change initiatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper evaluates sub-federal efforts to mitigate climate change in the United States through a range of climate-relevant initiatives, identifying principal trends and detailing climate-relevant initiatives in several states. These strategies include renewable electricity mandates, State and regional greenhouse gas emissions inventories, mandatory greenhouse gas emissions reporting, State greenhouse gas emissions caps, greenhouse gas emissions reductions from motor vehicles, and greenhouse gas emissions cap-and-trade programs for electric generation in several States. Many municipalities in the United States are also pursuing a range of climate-relevant initiatives, those actions are beyond the scope of this paper, but it should be noted they also influence state and national consideration of climate-relevant initiatives in the United States. (author)

  10. Evaluating U.S. States climate change initiatives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, P

    2004-07-01

    This paper evaluates sub-federal efforts to mitigate climate change in the United States through a range of climate-relevant initiatives, identifying principal trends and detailing climate-relevant initiatives in several states. These strategies include renewable electricity mandates, State and regional greenhouse gas emissions inventories, mandatory greenhouse gas emissions reporting, State greenhouse gas emissions caps, greenhouse gas emissions reductions from motor vehicles, and greenhouse gas emissions cap-and-trade programs for electric generation in several States. Many municipalities in the United States are also pursuing a range of climate-relevant initiatives, those actions are beyond the scope of this paper, but it should be noted they also influence state and national consideration of climate-relevant initiatives in the United States. (author)

  11. Climate Change, Politics and Religion: Australian Churchgoers’ Beliefs about Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miriam Pepper

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available A growing literature has sought to understand the relationships between religion, politics and views about climate change and climate change policy in the United States. However, little comparative research has been conducted in other countries. This study draws on data from the 2011 Australian National Church Life Survey to examine the beliefs of Australian churchgoers from some 20 denominations about climate change—whether or not it is real and whether it is caused by humans—and political factors that explain variation in these beliefs. Pentecostals, Baptist and Churches of Christ churchgoers, and people from the smallest Protestant denominations were less likely than other churchgoers to believe in anthropogenic climate change, and voting and hierarchical and individualistic views about society predicted beliefs. There was some evidence that these views function differently in relation to climate change beliefs depending on churchgoers’ degree of opposition to gay rights. These findings are of interest not only for the sake of international comparisons, but also in a context where Australia plays a role in international climate change politics that is disproportionate to its small population.

  12. Climate changes your business

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Businesses face much bigger climate change costs than they realise. That is the conclusion of Climate Changes Your Business. The climate change risks that companies should be paying more attention to are physical risks, regulatory risks as well as risk to reputation and the emerging risk of litigation, says the report. It argues that the risks associated with climate change tend to be underestimated

  13. Building Partnerships and Research Collaborations to Address the Impacts of Arctic Change: The North Atlantic Climate Change Collaboration (NAC3)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polk, J.; North, L. A.; Strenecky, B.

    2015-12-01

    Changes in Arctic warming influence the various atmospheric and oceanic patterns that drive Caribbean and mid-latitude climate events, including extreme events like drought, tornadoes, and flooding in Kentucky and the surrounding region. Recently, the establishment of the North Atlantic Climate Change Collaboration (NAC3) project at Western Kentucky University (WKU) in partnership with the University of Akureyri (UNAK), Iceland Arctic Cooperation Network (IACN), and Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC) provides a foundation from which to engage students in applied research from the local to global levels and more clearly understand the many tenets of climate change impacts in the Arctic within both a global and local community context. The NAC3 project encompasses many facets, including joint international courses, student internships, economic development, service learning, and applied research. In its first phase, the project has generated myriad outcomes and opportunities for bridging STEM disciplines with other fields to holistically and collaboratively address specific human-environmental issues falling under the broad umbrella of climate change. WKU and UNAK students desire interaction and exposure to other cultures and regions that are threatened by climate change and Iceland presents a unique opportunity to study influences such as oceanic processes, island economies, sustainable harvest of fisheries, and Arctic influences on climate change. The project aims to develop a model to bring partners together to conduct applied research on the complex subject of global environmental change, particularly in the Arctic, while simultaneously focusing on changing how we learn, develop community, and engage internationally to understand the impacts and find solutions.

  14. Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X.

    2002-01-01

    The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors

  15. Global climate change and biodiversity in forests of the southern United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Devall, M.S.; Parresol, B.R. (Forest Service, New Orleans, LA (United States). Inst. for Quantitative Studies)

    1994-09-01

    This paper examines the effects of projected future climate change scenarios on biodiversity in forests of the southern US. Global climate change will probably influence biodiversity of southern forests as it was affected during periods in the past, with added problems caused by high human population density, development, air pollution, and rising sea levels. Although the increased level of CO[sub 2] could have beneficial effects on plants, climate change could cause serious changes to many ecological systems, for example inducing plants to bloom before their pollinators are available, and could precipitate modifications that few scientists have considered. Certainly many ecological systems will be seriously altered by climate change. Large northward shifts in species' ranges are expected, causing communities and ecosystems to change in composition. Loss of or movement of a dominant tree species may influence many other plant and animal species in the southern forest, bringing about large increases in the numbers of threatened and endangered species, as well as extinctions. Predictions about the effects of global climate change to southern forests and suggestions for detecting and preparing for them are included.

  16. Construction of climate change scenarios from transient climate change experiments for the IPCC impacts assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viner, D.; Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Jones, P.D.

    1994-01-01

    This paper outlines the different methods which may be used for the construction of regional climate change scenarios. The main focus of the paper is the construction of global climate change scenarios from climate change experiments carried out using General Circulation Models (GCMS) An introduction to some GCM climate change experiments highlights the difference between model types and experiments (e.g., equilibrium or transient). The latest generation of climate change experiments has been performed using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMS. These allow transient simulations of climate change to be performed with respect to a given greenhouse gas forcing scenario. There are, however, a number of problems with these simulations which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios for use in climate change impacts assessment. The characteristics of the transient climate change experiments which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios are discussed. Three examples of these problems are: different climate change experiments use different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios; the 'cold-start' problem makes it difficult to link future projections of climate change to a given calendar year; a drift of the climate is noticeable in the control simulations. In order to construct climate change scenarios for impacts assessment a method has therefore to be employed which addresses these problems. At present the climate modeling and climate change impacts communities are somewhat polarized in their approach to spatial scales. Current GCMs model the climate at resolutions larger than 2.5 x 3.75 degree, while the majority of impacts assessment studies are undertaken at scales below 50km (or 0.5 degree). This paper concludes by addressing the problems in bringing together these two different modeling perspectives by presenting a number of regional climate change scenarios. 35 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs

  17. Evaluation of economic impact of climatic change on agro-forestry systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vittorio Gallerani

    Full Text Available Climate change has a strong influence on agro-forestry systems. Present estimations evisage that changes in climate patterns and extreme events connected to climate change will have greater impacts in the future. This paper seeks to illustrate the articulation of the problems concerning the economic evaluation of climate change, with particularly attention to open problems and future lines of research. Research on this topic, though using methods and approaches consolidated in the disciplines of resource economics and evaluation, still have several open problems, particularly in the field of multidisciplinary studies of the man-environmental relations, policy evaluation and development of decision support systems for decision makers.

  18. Estonia in the system of global climate change. Publication 4/1996

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Punning, J.M.

    1996-01-01

    Estonia is among the countries who signed the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) at the UN Conference in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992. The FCCC calls on its parties to inventory national sources, to reduction in greenhouse gases and to development of projects responding to climate change. In 1994, an Estonian Country Study Project was initiated within the U.S. Country Studies Program. The Estonian Country Study Project is comprehensive, covering all sectors and directions of activity in Estonia that might impact climate change or be influenced by Global Climate Change. This book contains a collection of papers, covering the aims of the Estonian Country Study Project

  19. An Ill Wind? Climate Change, Migration, and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Jon

    2012-01-01

    Background: Climate change is projected to cause substantial increases in population movement in coming decades. Previous research has considered the likely causal influences and magnitude of such movements and the risks to national and international security. There has been little research on the consequences of climate-related migration and the health of people who move. Objectives: In this review, we explore the role that health impacts of climate change may play in population movements and then examine the health implications of three types of movements likely to be induced by climate change: forcible displacement by climate impacts, resettlement schemes, and migration as an adaptive response. Methods: This risk assessment draws on research into the health of refugees, migrants, and people in resettlement schemes as analogs of the likely health consequences of climate-related migration. Some account is taken of the possible modulation of those health risks by climate change. Discussion: Climate-change–related migration is likely to result in adverse health outcomes, both for displaced and for host populations, particularly in situations of forced migration. However, where migration and other mobility are used as adaptive strategies, health risks are likely to be minimized, and in some cases there will be health gains. Conclusions: Purposeful and timely policy interventions can facilitate the mobility of people, enhance well-being, and maximize social and economic development in both places of origin and places of destination. Nevertheless, the anticipated occurrence of substantial relocation of groups and communities will underscore the fundamental seriousness of human-induced climate change. PMID:22266739

  20. Sink or Swim: Adapting to the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleick, P. H.

    2014-12-01

    Climate changes lead to a wide range of societal and environmental impacts; indeed, strong evidence has accrued that such impacts are already occurring, as summarized by the newest National Climate Assessment and other analyses. Among the most important will be alterations in the hydrologic cycle, changes in water supply and demand, and impacts on existing water-related infrastructure. Because of the complexity of our water systems, adaptation responses will be equally complex. This problem has made it difficult for water managers and planners to develop and implement adaptation strategies. This talk will address three ways to think about water-related adaptation approaches to climate change: (1) strategies that are already being implemented to address population and economic changes without climate change; (2) whether these first-line strategies are appropriate for additional impacts that might result from climatic changes; and (3) new approaches that might be necessary for new, non-linear, or threshold impacts. An effort will also be made to differentiate between adaptation strategies that influence the hydrologic cycle directly (e.g., cloud seeding), those that influence supply management (e.g., construction of additional reservoirs or water-distribution systems), and those that affect water demand (e.g., removal of outdoor landscaping, installation of efficient irrigation systems).

  1. Combining satellite derived phenology with climate data for climate change impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivits, E.; Cherlet, M.; Tóth, G.; Sommer, S.; Mehl, W.; Vogt, J.; Micale, F.

    2012-05-01

    The projected influence of climate change on the timing and volume of phytomass production is expected to affect a number of ecosystem services. In order to develop coherent and locally effective adaptation and mitigation strategies, spatially explicit information on the observed changes is needed. Long-term variations of the vegetative growing season in different environmental zones of Europe for 1982-2006 have been derived by analysing time series of GIMMS NDVI data. The associations of phenologically homogenous spatial clusters to time series of temperature and precipitation data were evaluated. North-east Europe showed a trend to an earlier and longer growing season, particularly in the northern Baltic areas. Despite the earlier greening up large areas of Europe exhibited rather stable season length indicating the shift of the entire growing season to an earlier period. The northern Mediterranean displayed a growing season shift towards later dates while some agglomerations of earlier and shorter growing season were also seen. The correlation of phenological time series with climate data shows a cause-and-effect relationship over the semi natural areas consistent with results in literature. Managed ecosystems however appear to have heterogeneous change pattern with less or no correlation to climatic trends. Over these areas climatic trends seemed to overlap in a complex manner with more pronounced effects of local biophysical conditions and/or land management practices. Our results underline the importance of satellite derived phenological observations to explain local nonconformities to climatic trends for climate change impact assessment.

  2. Policy Directions Addressing the Public Health Impact of Climate Change in South Korea: The Climate-change Health Adaptation and Mitigation Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Yong Seung; Ha, Jongsik

    2012-01-01

    Climate change, caused by global warming, is increasingly recognized as a major threat to mankind's survival. Climate change concurrently has both direct and modifying influences on environmental, social, and public health systems undermining human health as a whole. Environmental health policy-makers need to make use of political and technological alternatives to address these ramifying effects. The objective of this paper is to review public health policy in Korea, as well as internationally, particularly as it relates to climate change health adaptation and mitigation programs (such as C-CHAMP of Korea), in order to assess and elicit directions for a robust environmental health policy that is adaptive to the health impacts of climate change. In Korea, comprehensive measures to prevent or mitigate overall health effects are limited, and the diffusion of responsibility among various government departments makes consistency in policy execution very difficult. This paper proposes integration, synergy, and utilization as the three core principles of policy direction for the assessment and adaptation to the health impacts of climate change. For specific action plans, we suggest policy making based on scientifically integrated health impact assessments and the prioritization of environmental factors in climate change; the development of practical and technological tools that support policy decisions by making their political implementation more efficient; and customized policy development that deals with the vulnerability of local communities.

  3. Policy Directions Addressing the Public Health Impact of Climate Change in South Korea: The Climate-change Health Adaptation and Mitigation Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Yong Seung

    2012-01-01

    Climate change, caused by global warming, is increasingly recognized as a major threat to mankind's survival. Climate change concurrently has both direct and modifying influences on environmental, social, and public health systems undermining human health as a whole. Environmental health policy-makers need to make use of political and technological alternatives to address these ramifying effects. The objective of this paper is to review public health policy in Korea, as well as internationally, particularly as it relates to climate change health adaptation and mitigation programs (such as C-CHAMP of Korea), in order to assess and elicit directions for a robust environmental health policy that is adaptive to the health impacts of climate change. In Korea, comprehensive measures to prevent or mitigate overall health effects are limited, and the diffusion of responsibility among various government departments makes consistency in policy execution very difficult. This paper proposes integration, synergy, and utilization as the three core principles of policy direction for the assessment and adaptation to the health impacts of climate change. For specific action plans, we suggest policy making based on scientifically integrated health impact assessments and the prioritization of environmental factors in climate change; the development of practical and technological tools that support policy decisions by making their political implementation more efficient; and customized policy development that deals with the vulnerability of local communities. PMID:23256088

  4. Climatic changes in the next hundred years especially in our areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenaas, Sigbjoern

    2000-01-01

    The article surveys how pollution may disturb the climate, the most commonly used climatic models and some results using these models from the large European Climatic Research Centres. The uncertainties in predicting the changes in the currents in the Atlantic Ocean caused by the global warming and how this may lead to uncertain climatic change estimates for Scandinavia are reviewed. The research into the factors influencing the climatic changes north of 60 deg has intensified since 1995. However, the author points out that the uncertainties in the estimations are still very large and suggests further research, monitoring changes in the ocean ice and currents as well as all physical processes which are important to the expected alterations in order to improve the climatic models and the estimates. 8 figs

  5. The role of internal climate variability for interpreting climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maraun, Douglas

    2013-04-01

    When communicating information on climate change, the use of multi-model ensembles has been advocated to sample uncertainties over a range as wide as possible. To meet the demand for easily accessible results, the ensemble is often summarised by its multi-model mean signal. In rare cases, additional uncertainty measures are given to avoid loosing all information on the ensemble spread, e.g., the highest and lowest projected values. Such approaches, however, disregard the fundamentally different nature of the different types of uncertainties and might cause wrong interpretations and subsequently wrong decisions for adaptation. Whereas scenario and climate model uncertainties are of epistemic nature, i.e., caused by an in principle reducible lack of knowledge, uncertainties due to internal climate variability are aleatory, i.e., inherently stochastic and irreducible. As wisely stated in the proverb "climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", a specific region will experience one stochastic realisation of the climate system, but never exactly the expected climate change signal as given by a multi model mean. Depending on the meteorological variable, region and lead time, the signal might be strong or weak compared to the stochastic component. In cases of a low signal-to-noise ratio, even if the climate change signal is a well defined trend, no trends or even opposite trends might be experienced. Here I propose to use the time of emergence (TOE) to quantify and communicate when climate change trends will exceed the internal variability. The TOE provides a useful measure for end users to assess the time horizon for implementing adaptation measures. Furthermore, internal variability is scale dependent - the more local the scale, the stronger the influence of internal climate variability. Thus investigating the TOE as a function of spatial scale could help to assess the required spatial scale for implementing adaptation measures. I exemplify this proposal with

  6. Utilizing the social media data to validate 'climate change' indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molodtsova, T.; Kirilenko, A.; Stepchenkova, S.

    2013-12-01

    Reporting the observed and modeled changes in climate to public requires the measures understandable by the general audience. E.g., the NASA GISS Common Sense Climate Index (Hansen et al., 1998) reports the change in climate based on six practically observable parameters such as the air temperature exceeding the norm by one standard deviation. The utility of the constructed indices for reporting climate change depends, however, on an assumption that the selected parameters are felt and connected with the changing climate by a non-expert, which needs to be validated. Dynamic discussion of climate change issues in social media may provide data for this validation. We connected the intensity of public discussion of climate change in social networks with regional weather variations for the territory of the USA. We collected the entire 2012 population of Twitter microblogging activity on climate change topic, accumulating over 1.8 million separate records (tweets) globally. We identified the geographic location of the tweets and associated the daily and weekly intensity of twitting with the following parameters of weather for these locations: temperature anomalies, 'hot' temperature anomalies, 'cold' temperature anomalies, heavy rain/snow events. To account for non-weather related events we included the articles on climate change from the 'prestige press', a collection of major newspapers. We found that the regional changes in parameters of weather significantly affect the number of tweets published on climate change. This effect, however, is short-lived and varies throughout the country. We found that in different locations different weather parameters had the most significant effect on climate change microblogging activity. Overall 'hot' temperature anomalies had significant influence on climate change twitting intensity.

  7. Considering Students' Out-of-School Lives and Values in Designing Learning Environments for Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, E.; Tsurusaki, B.

    2012-12-01

    What are the implications of social controversy for the teaching and learning of climate change science? How do the political dimensions of this controversy affect learners' attitudes towards and reasoning about climate change and climate science? Case studies from a pilot enactment of an ecological impacts of climate change curriculum explore these questions by describing how five high school students' understandings of climate change science developed at the intersection of political and scientific values, attitudes, and ways of knowing. Case studies combine qualitative, ethnographic methods including interviews and classroom video observations with quantitative pre/post-assessments of student conceptual understandings and weekly surveys of student engagement. Data indicate that students had initial perceptions of climate change informed by the media and their families—both supporting and rejecting the scientific consensus—that influenced how they engaged with the scientific evidence. While students who were initially antagonistic to anthropogenic climate change did develop conceptual understandings of the scientific evidence for human-influences on climate change, this work was challenging and at times frustrating for them. These case studies demonstrate the wide range of initial attitudes and understandings that students bring to the study of climate change. They also demonstrate that it is possible to make significant shifts in students' understandings of climate change science, even in students who were initially resistant to the idea of anthropogenic climate change. Finally, multiple case studies discuss ways that the learning that occurred in the classroom crossed out of the classroom into the students' homes and family talk. This work highlights how learners' pathways are shaped not only by their developing understanding of the scientific evidence but also by the political and social influences that learners navigate across the contexts of their lives

  8. Communicating global climate change using simple indices: an update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drost, Frank; Karoly, David [University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Braganza, Karl [National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

    2012-08-15

    Previous studies have shown that there are several indices of global-scale temperature variations, in addition to global-mean surface air temperature, that are useful for distinguishing natural internal climate variations from anthropogenic climate change. Appropriately defined, such indices have the ability to capture spatio-temporal information in a similar manner to optimal fingerprints of climate change. These indices include the contrast between the average temperatures over land and over oceans, the Northern Hemisphere meridional temperature gradient, the temperature contrast between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere and the magnitude of the annual cycle of average temperatures over land. They contain information independent of the global-mean temperature for internal climate variations at decadal time scales and represent different aspects of the climate system, yet they show common responses to anthropogenic climate change. In addition, the ratio of average temperature changes over land to those over the oceans should be nearly constant for transient climate change. Hence, supplementing analysis of global-mean surface temperature with analyses of these indices can strengthen results of attribution studies of causes of observed climate variations. In this study, we extend the previous work by including the last 10 years of observational data and the CMIP3 climate model simulations analysed for the IPCC AR4. We show that observed changes in these indices over the last 10 years provide increased evidence of an anthropogenic influence on climate. We also show the usefulness of these indices for evaluating the performance of climate models in simulating large-scale variability of surface temperature. (orig.)

  9. Investigating Climate Change Issues With Web-Based Geospatial Inquiry Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dempsey, C.; Bodzin, A. M.; Sahagian, D. L.; Anastasio, D. J.; Peffer, T.; Cirucci, L.

    2011-12-01

    In the Environmental Literacy and Inquiry middle school Climate Change curriculum we focus on essential climate literacy principles with an emphasis on weather and climate, Earth system energy balance, greenhouse gases, paleoclimatology, and how human activities influence climate change (http://www.ei.lehigh.edu/eli/cc/). It incorporates a related set of a framework and design principles to provide guidance for the development of the geospatial technology-integrated Earth and environmental science curriculum materials. Students use virtual globes, Web-based tools including an interactive carbon calculator and geologic timeline, and inquiry-based lab activities to investigate climate change topics. The curriculum includes educative curriculum materials that are designed to promote and support teachers' learning of important climate change content and issues, geospatial pedagogical content knowledge, and geographic spatial thinking. The curriculum includes baseline instructional guidance for teachers and provides implementation and adaptation guidance for teaching with diverse learners including low-level readers, English language learners and students with disabilities. In the curriculum, students use geospatial technology tools including Google Earth with embedded spatial data to investigate global temperature changes, areas affected by climate change, evidence of climate change, and the effects of sea level rise on the existing landscape. We conducted a designed-based research implementation study with urban middle school students. Findings showed that the use of the Climate Change curriculum showed significant improvement in urban middle school students' understanding of climate change concepts.

  10. The Economics of Climate Change in Mexico: Implications for National/Regional Policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Estrada, E.; Papyrakis, E.; Tol, R.S.J.; Gay-García, C.

    2013-01-01

    The recent Mexican government study, The Economics of Climate Change in Mexico (ECCM), which has largely influenced Mexico's stance on climate change issues and international negotiations, is critically reviewed. Whilst the importance of such government-supported national studies as a first attempt

  11. Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bevaola Kusumasari

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This research strives to provide answers regarding adaptation patterns of farmers in confronting climate change in Indonesia. The method utilized for this research is a mixed method. Qualitative data was acquired through a series of focus group discussions and in-depth interviews with farmers and agricultural stakeholders in Gunung Kidul and Sleman, Indonesia. Additionally, the survey was carried out to 220 farmers in both research locations. The two research locations were chosen based on the difference in agricultural land. The findings of this research show that farmers understand climate change is occurring in their region and it influences their cultivation method. Farmers utilize their personal experiences as well as local practices in adapting to climate change. The impact most felt by farmers is crop failure and a decrease in quality and quantity of agricultural crops. The ensuing implication is that farmer’s income declines more and more. This research found that agricultural product cost increased by almost as much as 50%, whilst farmer’s income merely increased half of that, which is 25% since climate change has affected their farming. Responding to the matter, the strategy farmers employ is by changing the planting pattern, using soil cultivation technique, plant pest management technique, and watering/irrigation technique.

  12. Adapting fisheries and their management to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegren, Martin; Brander, Keith

    2018-01-01

    As the body of literature on marine climate impacts accumulates the question is no longer whether marine ecosystems and their living resources are affected, but what we as scientists, managers and policy makers can do to prepare for the inevitable changes. In this study, the current literature...... to climate change are outlined and discussed. Thirdly, case studies illustrating several key aspects (political, legal, economic, and social) influencing adaptation at the level of fisheries, communities and households worldwide are presented and compared. Finally, a brief synthesis of the main issues...... and measures are surprisingly few. This emphasizes the need to increase the general awareness of climate change impacts and to build a solid political, legal, financial and social infrastructure within which the available knowledge, tools and approaches can be set to practical use in implementing adaptation...

  13. The user's influence on air change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kvisgaard, B.; Collet, P.F.

    1990-01-01

    Of the various parameters deciding the air change in a building, the influence of wind and the stack effect have in particular been focused on. Concurrently, with the increase in quality of buildings and the tightening of existing buildings, the influence of the climatic parameters is reduced, and other parameters gain a greater influence on the air change. One of the parameters having a great influence on the air change in tight buildings are the users. The air change rate is greatly influenced by the users not only in naturally ventilated buildings, but also in mechanically ventilated buildings. On the basis of continuous measurement of the air change in 28 dwellings, the proportion between the total air change (air change in house with occupants) and the basic air change (air change in a sealed house) is discussed. The air change in each of the dwellings has been measured for a period of about one week during occupancy. The measuring principle applied is the method with constant concentration of tracer gas

  14. Modern Climate Change and Mountain Skiing Tourism: the Alps and the Caucasus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina M. Pestereva

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Relevance of the research of modern climate change is beyond all doubts at the moment. Climate is, first of all, a significant share of any country’s resources. Losses due to global climate change can affect virtually all branches of economy and social aspects, including energy production, eco-systems, agriculture, forests, construction, transport, tourism etc.Climate change imposes certain mode of economy, a strategy of economy’s development years ahead. According to forecasts, for example the one of European environmental agency (EEA, one of the first “hostages” of climate change will be winter tourism and alpine skiing resorts. Climate change seriously influences incomes of countries and certain regions located in mountain areas and developing winter sports.Yet, forecasts of climatologists on modern climate change trends are ambiguous and sometimes controversial. For this reason definite scientific and practical interest is raised by research in climate change trends in mountain areas based on mostly state network of meteorological stations.

  15. Climate change and agriculture. The agricultural industry = offender and victim

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burdick, B.

    1994-01-01

    Recently, attention has been repeatedly drawn to the rapidly increasing effects of human influences and the changing climate. The industrial landscape is seen as an important cause, with industrialisation and increasing energy consumption as well as our consumer society and the volume of traffic. The actual extent and speed of climatic change can only be estimated. The process leading to the current extent of scientific knowledge of climatic change, its possible extent and its effects on the plant and wildlife eco-systems are described in detail. Finally, counter-measures and recommendations for action are discussed. (orig.) [de

  16. Climate change, global risks, challenges and decisions. Synthesis report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, K.; Steffen, W.; Schellnhuber, H.J.

    2009-03-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009 (the 15th Conference of the Parties, COP-15) will be a critical step in developing a global response to the threat of climate change caused by human activities. The primary scientific input to those negotiations is the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2007. The IPCC report has already been instrumental in increasing both public and political awareness of the societal risks associated with unchecked emission of greenhouse gases. Since the production of the IPCC report, new knowledge has emerged that furthers understanding of the impacts of human influence on the climate and the response options and approaches that are available to tackle this complex issue. To bring this new knowledge together, the International Alliance of Research Universities organised an international scientific congress on climate change, Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions, which was held in Copenhagen from 10-12 March 2009. Participants came from nearly 80 different countries and contributed with more than 1400 scientific presentations. Abstracts for all of the scientific presentations made can be found at www.iop.org/EJ/volume/1755-1315/6, and a transcript of the closing plenary session can be found at environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/opinion/39126. This synthesis report presents an up-to-date overview of a broad range of research relevant to climate change - including fundamental climate science, the impacts of a changing climate on society and environment, and the many tools and approaches available to deal effectively with the challenge of climate change. (LN)

  17. The effects of changing solar activity on climate: contributions from palaeoclimatological studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Engels Stefan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Natural climate change currently acts in concert with human-induced changes in the climate system. To disentangle the natural variability in the climate system and the human-induced effects on the global climate, a critical analysis of climate change in the past may offer a better understanding of the processes that drive the global climate system. In this review paper, we present palaeoclimatological evidence for the past influence of solar variability on Earth’s climate, highlighting the effects of solar forcing on a range of timescales. On a decadal timescale, instrumental measurements as well as historical records show the effects of the 11-year Schwabe cycle on climate. The variation in total solar irradiance that is associated with a Schwabe cycle is only ~1 W m−2 between a solar minimum and a maximum, but winter and spring temperatures on the Northern Hemisphere show a response even to this small-scale variability. There is a large body of evidence from palaeoclimatic reconstructions that shows the influence of solar activity on a centennial to millennial timescale. We highlight a period of low solar activity starting at 2800 years before present when Europe experienced a shift to colder and wetter climate conditions. The spatial pattern of climate change that can be recognized in the palaeoclimatological data is in line with the suggested pattern of climate change as simulated by climate models. Millennial-scale climate oscillations can be recognized in sediment records from the Atlantic Ocean as well as in records of lake-level fluctuations in southeastern France. These oscillations coincide with variation in 14C production as recognized in the atmospheric 14C record (which is a proxy-record for solar activity, suggesting that Earth’s climate is sensitive to changes in solar activity on a millennial timescale as well.

  18. Climate Change Impacts on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage: a State-of-the-Art Review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, Patrick; Olsson, Jonas; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2013-01-01

    climate change: influence of data limitation, instrumental or environmental changes, interannual variations and longer term climate oscillations on trend testing results. Analysis of long-term future trends due to anthropogenic climate change: by complementing empirical historical data with the results...... from physically-based climate models, dynamic downscaling to the urban scale by means of Limited Area Models (LAMs) including explicitly small-scale cloud processes; validation of RCM/GCM results for local conditions accounting for natural variability, limited length of the available time series......, difference in spatial scales, and influence of climate oscillations; statistical downscaling methods combined with bias correction; uncertainties associated with the climate forcing scenarios, the climate models, the initial states and the statistical downscaling step; uncertainties in the impact models (e...

  19. Solar influences on global change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Board on Global Change, National Research Council

    ..., but significant uncertainties remain. This book addresses current monitoring and understanding of solar influences on both the climate system and the ozone layer and prioritizes the research effort that will be needed to provide a sound scientific basis for policymaking related to global change issues.

  20. Climate-induced change of environmentally defined floristic domains: A conservation based vulnerability framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debbie Jewitt; Barend F.N. Erasmus; Peter S. Goodman; Timothy G. O' Connor; William W. Hargrove; Damian M. Maddalena; Ed. T.F. Witkowski

    2015-01-01

    Global climate change is having marked influences on species distributions, phenology and ecosystem composition and raises questions as to the effectiveness of current conservation strategies. Conservation planning has only recently begun to adequately account for dynamic threats such as climate change. We propose a method to incorporate climate-dynamic environmental...

  1. Our changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kandel, R.

    1990-01-01

    The author presents an overview of the changing climate. Attention is focused on the following: meteorology; weather; climate anomalies; changes in atmospheric composition and global warming; ozone; mathematical models; and climate and politics. In its conclusion, it asks researchers to stay out of a game in which, ultimately, neither science nor politics stands to gain anything

  2. Climate change and skin disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundgren, Ashley D

    2018-04-01

    Despite commanding essentially universal scientific consensus, climate change remains a divisive and poorly understood topic in the United States. Familiarity with this subject is not just for climate scientists. The impact of climate change on human morbidity and mortality may be considerable; thus, physicians also should be knowledgeable in this realm. Climate change science can seem opaque and inferential, creating fertile ground for political polemics and undoubtedly contributing to confusion among the general public. This puts physicians in a pivotal position to facilitate a practical understanding of climate change in the public sphere by discussing changes in disease patterns and their possible relationship to a changing climate. This article provides a background on climate change for dermatologists and highlights how climate change may impact the management of skin disease across the United States.

  3. Can phenological shifts compensate for adverse effects of climate change on butterfly metapopulation viability?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cormont, A.; Jochem, R.; Malinowska, A.H.; Verboom, J.; Wallis de Vries, M.F.; Opdam, P.F.M.

    2012-01-01

    The interaction between climate change and habitat fragmentation has been presented as a deadly anthropogenic cocktail. We cannot stop climate change, but it is within our circle of influence as ecologists to suggest landscape adaptation. Detailed population models that take into account climate

  4. Village-level supply reliability of surface water irrigation in rural China: effects of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yanrong; Wang, Jinxia

    2018-06-01

    Surface water, as the largest part of water resources, plays an important role on China's agricultural production and food security. And surface water is vulnerable to climate change. This paper aims to examine the status of the supply reliability of surface water irrigation, and discusses how it is affected by climate change in rural China. The field data we used in this study was collected from a nine-province field survey during 2012 and 2013. Climate data are offered by China's National Meteorological Information Center which contains temperature and precipitation in the past 30 years. A Tobit model (or censored regression model) was used to estimate the influence of climate change on supply reliability of surface water irrigation. Descriptive results showed that, surface water supply reliability was 74 % in the past 3 years. Econometric results revealed that climate variables significantly influenced the supply reliability of surface water irrigation. Specifically, temperature is negatively related with the supply reliability of surface water irrigation; but precipitation positively influences the supply reliability of surface water irrigation. Besides, climate influence differs by seasons. In a word, this paper improves our understanding of the impact of climate change on agriculture irrigation and water supply reliability in the micro scale, and provides a scientific basis for relevant policy making.

  5. Relative influences of climate change and human activity on the onshore distribution of polar bears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Ryan R.; Regehr, Eric V.; St. Martin, Michelle; Atwood, Todd C.; Peacock, Elizabeth; Miller, Susanne; Divoky, George J.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is altering habitat for many species, leading to shifts in distributions that can increase levels of human-wildlife conflict. To develop effective strategies for minimizing human-wildlife conflict, we must understand the relative influences that climate change and other factors have on wildlife distributions. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are increasingly using land during summer and autumn due to sea ice loss, leading to higher incidents of conflict and concerns for human safety. We sought to understand the relative influence of sea ice conditions, onshore habitat characteristics, and human-provisioned food attractants on the distribution and abundance of polar bears while on shore. We also wanted to determine how mitigation measures might reduce human-polar bear conflict associated with an anthropogenic food source. We built a Bayesian hierarchical model based on 14 years of aerial survey data to estimate the weekly number and distribution of polar bears on the coast of northern Alaska in autumn. We then used the model to predict how effective two management options for handling subsistence-harvested whale remains in the community of Kaktovik, Alaska might be. The distribution of bears on shore was most strongly influenced by the presence of whale carcasses and to a lesser extent sea ice and onshore habitat conditions. The numbers of bears on shore were related to sea ice conditions. The two management strategies for handling the whale carcasses reduced the estimated number of bears near Kaktovik by > 75%. By considering multiple factors associated with the onshore distribution and abundance of polar bears we discerned what role human activities played in where bears occur and how successful efforts to manage the whale carcasses might be for reducing human-polar bear conflict.

  6. Quality Climate Change Professional Development Translates into Quality Climate Change Education (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holzer, M. A.

    2013-12-01

    Perhaps one of the reasons we have so many climate change deniers in the United States is that to them climate change is not occurring. This is a valid claim about climate change deniers considering that the effects of climate change in the mid-latitudes are quite subtle as compared to those found in low-latitude and high-latitude regions. A mid-latitude classroom teacher is saddled with the challenge of enlightening students about our changing climate and empowering students to assist in making necessary lifestyle changes, all the while the students don't understand the urgency in doing so. Quality climate change data and resources from the Polar Regions and low latitudes, as well as connections to researchers from these regions help to bridge the understanding of our changing climate from the extreme latitudes to the mid-latitudes. Connecting science teachers with data, resources, and researchers is one way of ensuring our mid-latitude students understand the urgency in taking appropriate actions to adapt, mitigate, and show resilience. This presentation will highlight a few of the many impacts of an authentic research experience for teachers that not only provides teachers with data, resources, and researchers, but changes the way a science teacher teaches where the methods they use mirror the methods used by scientists. National projects like PolarTREC connect educators with the science of climate change as well as the reality of impacts of climate change. For example, research expeditions in the Arctic and in Antarctica connect teachers with the content and practices of climate change science preparing them to replicate their experiences with their students. A PolarTREC experience does not end with the close of the expedition. Teachers continue their connections with the program through their educator network, the integration of PolarTREC resources into their curriculums, and communications with their principal investigators either virtually or with school

  7. Trade and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamiotti, L.; Teh, R.; Kulacoglu, V. (World Trade Organization (WTO), Geneva (Switzerland)); Olhoff, A.; Simmons, B.; Abaza, H. (United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (Denmark))

    2009-06-15

    The Report aims to improve understanding about the linkages between trade and climate change. It shows that trade intersects with climate change in a multitude of ways. For example, governments may introduce a variety of policies, such as regulatory measures and economic incentives, to address climate change. This complex web of measures may have an impact on international trade and the multilateral trading system. The Report begins with a summary of the current state of scientific knowledge on climate change and on the options available for responding to the challenge of climate change. The scientific review is followed by a part on the economic aspects of the link between trade and climate change, and these two parts set the context for the subsequent parts of the Report, which looks at the policies introduced at both the international and national level to address climate change. The part on international policy responses to climate change describes multilateral efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the effects of climate change, and also discusses the role of the current trade and environment negotiations in promoting trade in technologies that aim to mitigate climate change. The final part of the Report gives an overview of a range of national policies and measures that have been used in a number of countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to increase energy efficiency. It presents key features in the design and implementation of these policies, in order to draw a clearer picture of their overall effect and potential impact on environmental protection, sustainable development and trade. It also gives, where appropriate, an overview of the WTO rules that may be relevant to such measures. (author)

  8. Modelling climate change impacts on mycotoxin contamination

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fels, van der Ine; Liu, C.; Battilani, P.

    2016-01-01

    Projected climate change effects will influence primary agricultural systems and thus food security, directly via impacts on yields, and indirectly via impacts on its safety, with mycotoxins considered as crucial hazards. Mycotoxins are produced by a wide variety of fungal species, each having their

  9. CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER POTENTIAL OF THE PAMIR MOUNTAINS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander F. Finaev

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Pamir region supplies water for most countries of the Central Asia. Discussions and arguments with regard to reduction of water resources related to climate change are popular today among various governmental and international institutions being a greatconcern for modern society. Probable decrease of the Pamirs runoff will affect downstreamcountries that can face water deficiency. However, there is no scientific rationale behindsuch disputes. The Pamir region is a remote, high-mountainous and hard-to-access area with scarce observation network and no reliable data. It is not sufficiently investigated in order to perform any assessment of climate change. This article represents results of study of climate parameters change (such as temperature, precipitation and river discharge in the Pamirs. The study area covers all countries included in this mountain region (Tajikistan, China, Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan. Observation records, remote sensing data and GIS modeling were used in the present work. Chronological data series were divided into two equal time intervals and were treated as climatic periods. Further analysis of climate change helped to estimate its influence on change of water potential in the Pamirs. The paper considers issues of liquid and solid precipitation change in the study area.

  10. The long view: Causes of climate change over the instrumental period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hegerl, G. C.; Schurer, A. P.; Polson, D.; Iles, C. E.; Bronnimann, S.

    2016-12-01

    The period of instrumentally recorded data has seen remarkable changes in climate, with periods of rapid warming, and periods of stagnation or cooling. A recent analysis of the observed temperature change from the instrumental record confirms that most of the warming recorded since the middle of the 20rst century has been caused by human influences, but shows large uncertainty in separating greenhouse gas from aerosol response if accounting for model uncertainty. The contribution by natural forcing and internal variability to the recent warming is estimated to be small, but becomes more important when analysing climate change over earlier or shorter time periods. For example, the enigmatic early 20th century warming was a period of strong climate anomalies, including the US dustbowl drought and exceptional heat waves, and pronounced Arctic warming. Attribution results suggests that about half of the global warming 1901-1950 was forced by greenhouse gases increases, with an anomalously strong contribution by climate variability, and contributions by natural forcing. Long term variations in circulation are important for some regional climate anomalies. Precipitation is important for impacts of climate change and precipitation changes are uncertain in models. Analysis of the instrumental record suggests a human influence on mean and heavy precipitation, and supports climate model estimates of the spatial pattern of precipitation sensitivity to warming. Broadly, and particularly over ocean, wet regions are getting wetter and dry regions are getting drier. In conclusion, the historical record provides evidence for a strong response to external forcings, supports climate models, and raises questions about multi-decadal variability.

  11. The climate is changing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfsen, Knut H.

    2001-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has finalized its Third Assessment Report. Among its conclusions is that we must expect continued changes in our climate, despite our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Planning for and adapting to climate change are therefore necessary. As a starting point, CICERO has written this short note on expected impacts in Norway. The main conclusions are that (1) Adaptation to climate change is necessary (2) Substantial impacts are expected for several important sectors in Norway (3) The local and central authorities should now consider and start planning for adaptation measures. (4) There is still a need for more knowledge about potential impacts of climate change in Norway. (author)

  12. Responses of terrestrial ecosystems' net primary productivity to future regional climate change in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Dongsheng; Wu, Shaohong; Yin, Yunhe

    2013-01-01

    The impact of regional climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) is an important aspect in the study of ecosystems' response to global climate change. China's ecosystems are very sensitive to climate change owing to the influence of the East Asian monsoon. The Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for China (LPJ-CN), a global dynamical vegetation model developed for China's terrestrial ecosystems, was applied in this study to simulate the NPP changes affected by future climate change. As the LPJ-CN model is based on natural vegetation, the simulation in this study did not consider the influence of anthropogenic activities. Results suggest that future climate change would have adverse effects on natural ecosystems, with NPP tending to decrease in eastern China, particularly in the temperate and warm temperate regions. NPP would increase in western China, with a concentration in the Tibetan Plateau and the northwest arid regions. The increasing trend in NPP in western China and the decreasing trend in eastern China would be further enhanced by the warming climate. The spatial distribution of NPP, which declines from the southeast coast to the northwest inland, would have minimal variation under scenarios of climate change.

  13. Responses of terrestrial ecosystems' net primary productivity to future regional climate change in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongsheng Zhao

    Full Text Available The impact of regional climate change on net primary productivity (NPP is an important aspect in the study of ecosystems' response to global climate change. China's ecosystems are very sensitive to climate change owing to the influence of the East Asian monsoon. The Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for China (LPJ-CN, a global dynamical vegetation model developed for China's terrestrial ecosystems, was applied in this study to simulate the NPP changes affected by future climate change. As the LPJ-CN model is based on natural vegetation, the simulation in this study did not consider the influence of anthropogenic activities. Results suggest that future climate change would have adverse effects on natural ecosystems, with NPP tending to decrease in eastern China, particularly in the temperate and warm temperate regions. NPP would increase in western China, with a concentration in the Tibetan Plateau and the northwest arid regions. The increasing trend in NPP in western China and the decreasing trend in eastern China would be further enhanced by the warming climate. The spatial distribution of NPP, which declines from the southeast coast to the northwest inland, would have minimal variation under scenarios of climate change.

  14. Simulation of Optimal Decision-Making Under the Impacts of Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Møller, Lea Ravnkilde; Drews, Martin; Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    2017-07-01

    Climate change causes transformations to the conditions of existing agricultural practices appointing farmers to continuously evaluate their agricultural strategies, e.g., towards optimising revenue. In this light, this paper presents a framework for applying Bayesian updating to simulate decision-making, reaction patterns and updating of beliefs among farmers in a developing country, when faced with the complexity of adapting agricultural systems to climate change. We apply the approach to a case study from Ghana, where farmers seek to decide on the most profitable of three agricultural systems (dryland crops, irrigated crops and livestock) by a continuous updating of beliefs relative to realised trajectories of climate (change), represented by projections of temperature and precipitation. The climate data is based on combinations of output from three global/regional climate model combinations and two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) representing moderate and unsubstantial greenhouse gas reduction policies, respectively. The results indicate that the climate scenario (input) holds a significant influence on the development of beliefs, net revenues and thereby optimal farming practices. Further, despite uncertainties in the underlying net revenue functions, the study shows that when the beliefs of the farmer (decision-maker) opposes the development of the realised climate, the Bayesian methodology allows for simulating an adjustment of such beliefs, when improved information becomes available. The framework can, therefore, help facilitating the optimal choice between agricultural systems considering the influence of climate change.

  15. Perception, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies of Irrigated Paddy Farmer Community to Face Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siska Rasiska Suantapura

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has a real impact on the condition of agriculture in developing countries, including Indonesia. Irrigated paddy farmers are the ones really feeling the impact of climate change. Therefore, we need to understand the perceptions, mitigation and adaptation strategies of irrigated paddy farmer community to face climate change. The study is conducted in Indramayu and Tasikmalaya Regency in West Java by using descriptive survey method, regression analysis and path analysis through Structural Equation Modelling approach with Lisrel TM 8.5. The results showes that: (1 changes to climate variability affects the productivity of rice; (2 perception of irrigated paddy farmer community on climate change and its affects are influenced by internal and external factors; and (3 adaptation strategy are influenced by internal and external factors, whereas no mitigation strategy. Therefore, mitigation and adaptation strategies with site specific location are very necessary improving climate information services, increasing empowerment of farmers through field schools, and providing the provision of facilities that are practical and adaptive to climate.

  16. Emerging migration flows in a changing climate in dryland Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kniveton, Dominic R.; Smith, Christopher D.; Black, Richard

    2012-06-01

    Fears of the movement of large numbers of people as a result of changes in the environment were first voiced in the 1980s (ref. ). Nearly thirty years later the numbers likely to migrate as a result of the impacts of climate change are still, at best, guesswork. Owing to the high prevalence of rainfed agriculture, many livelihoods in sub-Saharan African drylands are particularly vulnerable to changes in climate. One commonly adopted response strategy used by populations to deal with the resulting livelihood stress is migration. Here, we use an agent-based model developed around the theory of planned behaviour to explore how climate and demographic change, defined by the ENSEMBLES project and the United Nations Statistics Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, combine to influence migration within and from Burkina Faso. The emergent migration patterns modelled support framing the nexus of climate change and migration as a complex adaptive system. Using this conceptual framework, we show that the extent of climate-change-related migration is likely to be highly nonlinear and the extent of this nonlinearity is dependent on population growth; therefore supporting migration policy interventions based on both demographic and climate change adaptation.

  17. Future potential distribution of the emerging amphibian chytrid fungus under anthropogenic climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Lötters, Stefan

    2010-11-01

    Anthropogenic climate change poses a major threat to global biodiversity with a potential to alter biological interactions at all spatial scales. Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates and have been subject to increasing conservation attention over the past decade. A particular concern is the pandemic emergence of the parasitic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which has been identified as the cause of extremely rapid large-scale declines and species extinctions. Experimental and observational studies have demonstrated that the host-pathogen system is strongly influenced by climatic parameters and thereby potentially affected by climate change. Herein we project a species distribution model of the pathogen onto future climatic scenarios generated by the IPCC to examine their potential implications on the pandemic. Results suggest that predicted anthropogenic climate change may reduce the geographic range of B. dendrobatidis and its potential influence on amphibian biodiversity.

  18. Interactions between above- and belowground organisms modified in climate change experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stevnsbak, Karen; Scherber, Christoph; Gladbach, David

    2012-01-01

    Climate change has been shown to affect ecosystem process rates and community composition, with direct and indirect effects on belowground food webs. In particular, altered rates of herbivory under future climate4 can be expected to influence above–belowground interactions. Here, we use...... a multifactor, field-scale climate change experiment and independently manipulate atmospheric CO2 concentration, air and soil temperature and drought in all combinations since 2005. We show that changes in these factors modify the interaction between above- and belowground organisms.We use an insect herbivore...... a reduction in herbivory and cascading effects through the soil food web. Interactions between CO2, drought and warming can affect belowground protozoan abundance. Our findings imply that climate change affects aboveground–belowground interactions through changes in nutrient availability....

  19. Climate change and North American rangelands: Assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda A. Joyce; David D. Briske; Joel R. Brown; H. Wayne Polley; Bruce A. McCarl; Derek W. Bailey

    2013-01-01

    Recent climatic trends and climate model projections indicate that climate change will modify rangeland ecosystem functions and the services and livelihoods that they provision. Recent history has demonstrated that climatic variability has a strong influence on both ecological and social components of rangeland systems and that these systems possess substantial...

  20. Influences of past climatic changes on historical population structure and demography of a cosmopolitan marine predator, the common dolphin (genus Delphinus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amaral, Ana R; Beheregaray, Luciano B; Bilgmann, Kerstin; Freitas, Luís; Robertson, Kelly M; Sequeira, Marina; Stockin, Karen A; Coelho, M M; Möller, Luciana M

    2012-10-01

    Climatic oscillations during the Pleistocene have greatly influenced the distribution and connectivity of many organisms, leading to extinctions but also generating biodiversity. While the effects of such changes have been extensively studied in the terrestrial environment, studies focusing on the marine realm are still scarce. Here we used sequence data from one mitochondrial and five nuclear loci to assess the potential influence of Pleistocene climatic changes on the phylogeography and demographic history of a cosmopolitan marine predator, the common dolphin (genus Delphinus). Population samples representing the three major morphotypes of Delphinus were obtained from 10 oceanic regions. Our results suggest that short-beaked common dolphins are likely to have originated in the eastern Indo-Pacific Ocean during the Pleistocene and expanded into the Atlantic Ocean through the Indian Ocean. On the other hand, long-beaked common dolphins appear to have evolved more recently and independently in several oceans. Our results also suggest that short-beaked common dolphins had recurrent demographic expansions concomitant with changes in sea surface temperature during the Pleistocene and its associated increases in resource availability, which differed between the North Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins. By proposing how past environmental changes had an effect on the demography and speciation of a widely distributed marine mammal, we highlight the impacts that climate change may have on the distribution and abundance of marine predators and its ecological consequences for marine ecosystems. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  1. Climate Change Portal - Home Page

    Science.gov (United States)

    Science Partnerships Contact Us Take Action Climate change is already having significant and widespread of climate change. Business Businesses throughout California are taking action to address climate climate change impacts and informing policies to reduce greenhouse gases, adapt to changing environments

  2. Vegetation-climate feedbacks modulate rainfall patterns in Africa under future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Minchao; Schurgers, Guy; Rummukainen, Markku; Smith, Benjamin; Samuelsson, Patrick; Jansson, Christer; Siltberg, Joe; May, Wilhelm

    2016-07-01

    Africa has been undergoing significant changes in climate and vegetation in recent decades, and continued changes may be expected over this century. Vegetation cover and composition impose important influences on the regional climate in Africa. Climate-driven changes in vegetation structure and the distribution of forests versus savannah and grassland may feed back to climate via shifts in the surface energy balance, hydrological cycle and resultant effects on surface pressure and larger-scale atmospheric circulation. We used a regional Earth system model incorporating interactive vegetation-atmosphere coupling to investigate the potential role of vegetation-mediated biophysical feedbacks on climate dynamics in Africa in an RCP8.5-based future climate scenario. The model was applied at high resolution (0.44 × 0.44°) for the CORDEX-Africa domain with boundary conditions from the CanESM2 general circulation model. We found that increased tree cover and leaf-area index (LAI) associated with a CO2 and climate-driven increase in net primary productivity, particularly over subtropical savannah areas, not only imposed important local effect on the regional climate by altering surface energy fluxes but also resulted in remote effects over central Africa by modulating the land-ocean temperature contrast, Atlantic Walker circulation and moisture inflow feeding the central African tropical rainforest region with precipitation. The vegetation-mediated feedbacks were in general negative with respect to temperature, dampening the warming trend simulated in the absence of feedbacks, and positive with respect to precipitation, enhancing rainfall reduction over the rainforest areas. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for vegetation-atmosphere interactions in climate projections for tropical and subtropical Africa.

  3. Influence of Climate Factors on Rice Yields in Cambodia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dek Vimean Pheakdey

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Temperature and precipitation have been known as the key determinant factors to affect rice production in climate change. In this study, the relationship between climate variables and rice yields during 1993–2012 in Cambodia was analyzed and evaluated. The Ordinary Least Squares analysis was applied to examine the relationship of three climate variables (TCV including maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall against seasonal rice yields. By this period, a remarkable increasing trend of annual temperature was observed whilst rainfall was not significantly changed. The TCV explains approximately 63% and 56% of the variability of rice yields in wet and dry seasons, respectively. It is found that in Cambodia, non-climate factors such as fertilizers, water, cultivars, and soil fertility cause 40% variation to rice yields, whereas the remaining 60% can be influenced by climate variability. The levels of temperature difference (LTD between maximum and minimum temperatures of the wet season (WS and dry season (DS were 7.0 and 8.6 oC, respectively. The lower value of LTD may cause the reduction of rice in WS (2.2 tons/ha as compared to that of DS (3.0 tons/ha. Rice yield has increased 50.5% and 33.8% in DS and WS, respectively, may due to the improvement of rice cultivation practices in Cambodia such as the better use of fertilizers, pest and weed control, and irrigation, and more effective rice cultivated protocol, as the increased trend of temperature may detrimentally affect rice yield. The breeding of heat and drought tolerance rice varieties and development of irrigation system are effective to reduce the negative influence from climate change to rice production in Cambodia.

  4. Scoping the proximal and distal dimensions of climate change on health and wellbeing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, George Paterson; Reis, Stefan; Beck, Sheila Anne; Fleming, Lora Elderkin; Adger, William Neil; Benton, Timothy Guy; Depledge, Michael Harold

    2017-12-05

    The impacts of climate on health and wellbeing occur in time and space and through a range of indirect, complicated mechanisms. This diversity of pathways has major implications for national public health planning and influence on interventions that might help to mitigate and adapt to rapidly changing environmental conditions, nationally and internationally. This paper draws upon evidence from public health and adverse impact studies across climate science, hydrology, agriculture, public health, and the social sciences. It presents a conceptual model to support decision-making by recognizing both the proximal and distal pathways from climate-induced environmental change to national health and wellbeing. The proximal and distal pathways associated with food security, migration and mobility illustrate the diverse climate change influences in different geographic locations over different timescales. We argue that greater realization and articulation of proximal and distal pathways should radically alter how climate change is addressed as a national and international public health challenge.

  5. Climate change and forest diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    R.N. Sturrock; Susan Frankel; A. V. Brown; Paul Hennon; J. T. Kliejunas; K. J. Lewis; J. J. Worrall; A. J. Woods

    2011-01-01

    As climate changes, the effects of forest diseases on forest ecosystems will change. We review knowledge of relationships between climate variables and several forest diseases, as well as current evidence of how climate, host and pathogen interactions are responding or might respond to climate change. Many forests can be managed to both adapt to climate change and...

  6. Water Resources Management and Hydrologic Design Under Uncertain Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teegavarapu, R. S.

    2008-05-01

    The impact of climate change on hydrologic design and management of water resource systems could be one of the important challenges faced by future practicing hydrologists and water resources managers. Many water resources managers currently rely on the historical hydrological data and adaptive real-time operations without consideration of the impact of climate change on major inputs influencing the behavior of hydrologic systems and the operating rules. Issues such as risk, reliability and robustness of water resources systems under different climate change scenarios were addressed in the past. However, water resources management with the decision maker's preferences attached to climate change has never been dealt with. This presentation discusses issues related to impacts of climate change on water resources management and application of a soft-computing approach, fuzzy set theory, for climate-sensitive management of water resources systems. A real-life case study example is presented to illustrate the applicability of soft-computing approach for handling the decision maker's preferences in accepting or rejecting the magnitude and direction of climate change.

  7. Climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1977-02-15

    In spite of man's remarkable advances in technology, ultimately he is still dependent on the Earth's climatic system for food and fresh water. The recent occurrences in certain regions of the world of climatic extremes such as excessive rain or droughts and unseasonably high or low temperatures have led to speculation that a major climatic change is occurring on a global scale. Some point to the recent drop in temperatures in the northern hemisphere as an indication that the Earth is entering a new ice age. Others see a global warming trend that may be due to a build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. An authoritative report on the subject has been prepared by a World Meteorological Organization Panel of Experts on Climatic Change. Excerpts from the report are given. (author)

  8. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-01-01

    In spite of man's remarkable advances in technology, ultimately he is still dependent on the Earth's climatic system for food and fresh water. The recent occurrences in certain regions of the world of climatic extremes such as excessive rain or droughts and unseasonably high or low temperatures have led to speculation that a major climatic change is occurring on a global scale. Some point to the recent drop in temperatures in the northern hemisphere as an indication that the Earth is entering a new ice age. Others see a global warming trend that may be due to a build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. An authoritative report on the subject has been prepared by a World Meteorological Organization Panel of Experts on Climatic Change. Excerpts from the report are given. (author)

  9. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toni Lyn Morelli; Christopher Daly; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Deanna M. Dulen; Joseph L. Ebersole; Stephen T. Jackson; Jessica D. Lundquist; Connie Millar; Sean P. Maher; William B. Monahan; Koren R. Nydick; Kelly T. Redmond; Sarah C. Sawyer; Sarah Stock; Steven R. Beissinger

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that...

  10. Morphological evolution, ecological diversification and climate change in rodents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renaud, Sabrina; Michaux, Jacques; Schmidt, Daniela N; Aguilar, Jean-Pierre; Mein, Pierre; Auffray, Jean-Christophe

    2005-03-22

    Among rodents, the lineage from Progonomys hispanicus to Stephanomys documents a case of increasing size and dental specialization during an approximately 9 Myr time-interval. On the contrary, some contemporaneous generalist lineages like Apodemus show a limited morphological evolution. Dental shape can be related to diet and can be used to assess the ecological changes along the lineages. Consequently, size and shape of the first upper molar were measured in order to quantify the patterns of morphological evolution along both lineages and compare them to environmental trends. Climatic changes do not have a direct influence on evolution, but they open new ecological opportunities by changing vegetation and allow the evolution of a specialist like Stephanomys. On the other hand, environmental changes are not dramatic enough to destroy the habitat of a long-term generalist like Apodemus. Hence, our results exemplify a case of an influence of climate on the evolution of specialist species, although a generalist species may persist without change.

  11. Climate Change Impacts on the Organic Carbon Cycle at the Land-Ocean Interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canuel, Elizabeth A.; Cammer, Sarah S.; McIntosh, Hadley A.; Pondell, Christina R.

    2012-05-01

    Estuaries are among the most altered and vulnerable marine ecosystems. These ecosystems will likely continue to deteriorate owing to increased population growth in coastal regions, expected temperature and precipitation changes associated with climate change, and their interaction with each other, leading to serious consequences for the ecological and societal services they provide. A key function of estuaries is the transfer, transformation, and burial of carbon and other biogenic elements exchanged between the land and ocean systems. Climate change has the potential to influence the carbon cycle through anticipated changes to organic matter production in estuaries and through the alteration of carbon transformation and export processes. This review discusses the effects of climate change on processes influencing the cycling of organic carbon in estuaries, including examples from three temperate estuaries in North America. Our goal is to evaluate the impact of climate change on the connectivity of terrestrial, estuarine, and coastal ocean carbon cycles.

  12. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802

  13. Financial market response to extreme events indicating climatic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

    2016-05-01

    A variety of recent extreme climatic events are considered to be strong evidence that the climate is warming, but these incremental advances in certainty often seem ignored by non-scientists. I identify two unusual types of events that are considered to be evidence of climate change, announcements by NASA that the global annual average temperature has set a new record, and the sudden collapse of major polar ice shelves, and then conduct an event study to test whether news of these events changes investors' valuation of energy companies, a subset of firms whose future performance is closely tied to climate change. I find evidence that both classes of events have influenced energy stock prices since the 1990s, with record temperature announcements on average associated with negative returns and ice shelf collapses associated with positive returns. I identify a variety of plausible mechanisms that may be driving these differential responses, discuss implications for energy markets' views on long-term regulatory risk, and conclude that investors not only pay attention to scientifically significant climate events, but discriminate between signals carrying different information about the nature of climatic change.

  14. PUBLIC PRIVATE COLLABORATION ON CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dirckinck-Holmfeld, Kasper

    How can local governments influence companies to reduce their climate change impacts? This overall problem is examined in this PhD thesis. The PhD thesis is based on the experiences of seven Danish municipalities participating in the EU Life+ project, Carbon 20. Analyses are made...

  15. Understanding Controversies in Urban Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baron, Nina; Petersen, Lars Kjerulf

    2015-01-01

    This article explores the controversies that exist in urban climate change adaptation and how these controversies influence the role of homeowners in urban adaptation planning. A concrete SUDS project in a housing cooperative in Copenhagen has been used as a case study thereby investigating the m...

  16. Climate Change and Malaria

    OpenAIRE

    Goklany;, I. M.

    2004-01-01

    Sir David A. King's claim that "Climate change is the most severe problem that we are facing today—more serious even than the threat of terrorism" "Climate change is the most severe problem that we are facing today—more serious even than the threat of terrorism" ("Climate change

  17. Climate change and Finland. Summary of the Finnish research programme on climate change (SILMU)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-12-31

    Anthropogenic impacts on the Earth`s atmosphere are expected to cause significant global climate changes during the next few decades. These changes will have many consequences both in nature and on human activities. In order to investigate the implications of such changes in Finland, a six-year multidisciplinary national research programme on climate and global change, the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU), was initiated in 1990. The key research areas were: (1) quantification of the greenhouse effect and the magnitude of anticipated climate changes, (2) assessment of the effects of changing climate on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and (3) development of mitigation and adaptation strategies

  18. Climate change and Finland. Summary of the Finnish research programme on climate change (SILMU)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-01-01

    Anthropogenic impacts on the Earth's atmosphere are expected to cause significant global climate changes during the next few decades. These changes will have many consequences both in nature and on human activities. In order to investigate the implications of such changes in Finland, a six-year multidisciplinary national research programme on climate and global change, the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU), was initiated in 1990. The key research areas were: (1) quantification of the greenhouse effect and the magnitude of anticipated climate changes, (2) assessment of the effects of changing climate on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and (3) development of mitigation and adaptation strategies

  19. Chatham Islands Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mullan, B.; Salinger, J.; Thompson, C.; Ramsay, D.; Wild, M.

    2005-06-01

    This brief report provides guidance on climate change specific to the Chatham Islands, to complement the information recently produced for local government by the Ministry for the Environment in 'Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment: A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand' and 'Coastal Hazards and Climate Change: A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand'. These previous reports contain a lot of generic information on climate change, and how to assess associated risks, that is relevant to the Chatham Islands Council.

  20. The impact of climate change on the BRICS economies: The case of insurance demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranger, N.; Surminski, S.

    2012-04-01

    Session ERE5.1 Climate change impact on economical and industrial activities The impact of climate change on the BRICS economies: The case of insurance demand. Over the past decade, growth in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) economies has been a key driver of global economic growth. Current forecasts suggest that these markets will continue to be areas of significant growth for a large number of industries. We consider how climate change may influence these trends in the period to 2030, a time horizon that is long in terms of strategic planning in industry, but relatively short for climate change analysis, where the impacts are predicted to be most significant beyond around 2050. Based on current evidence, we expect climate change to affect the BRICS economies in four main ways: 1. The impact of physical climatic changes on the productivity of climate-sensitive economic activity, the local environment, human health and wellbeing, and damages from extreme weather. 2. Changing patterns of investment in climate risk management and adaptation 3. Changing patterns of investments in areas affected by greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy, 4. The impacts of the above globally, including on international trade, growth, investment, policy, migration and commodity prices, and their impacts on the BRICS. We review the evidence on the impacts of climate change in the BRICS and then apply this to one particular industry sector: non-life insurance. We propose five potential pathways through which climate change could influence insurance demand: economic growth; willingness to pay for insurance; public policy and regulation; the insurability of natural catastrophe risks; and new opportunities associated with adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation. We conclude that, with the exception of public policy and regulation, the influence of climate change on insurance demand to 2030 is likely to be small when compared with the expected growth due to rising

  1. Economics of climate change : sensitivity analysis of social cost of carbon

    OpenAIRE

    Torniainen, Sami

    2016-01-01

    Social cost of carbon (SCC) is the key concept in the economics of climate change. It measures the economic cost of climate impacts. SCC has influence on how beneficial it is to prevent climate change: if the value of SCC increases, investments to low-carbon technology become more attractive and profitable. This paper examines the sensitivity of two important assumptions that affect to SCC: the choice of a discount rate and time horizon. Using the integrated assessment model, ...

  2. Exploring the consequences of climate change for indoor air quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nazaroff, William W

    2013-01-01

    Climate change will affect the concentrations of air pollutants in buildings. The resulting shifts in human exposure may influence public health. Changes can be anticipated because of altered outdoor pollution and also owing to changes in buildings effected in response to changing climate. Three classes of factors govern indoor pollutant levels in occupied spaces: (a) properties of pollutants; (b) building factors, such as the ventilation rate; and (c) occupant behavior. Diversity of indoor conditions influences the public health significance of climate change. Potentially vulnerable subpopulations include not only the young and the infirm but also those who lack resources to respond effectively to changing conditions. Indoor air pollutant levels reflect the sum of contributions from indoor sources and from outdoor pollutants that enter with ventilation air. Pollutant classes with important indoor sources include the byproducts of combustion, radon, and volatile and semivolatile organic compounds. Outdoor pollutants of special concern include particulate matter and ozone. To ensure good indoor air quality it is important first to avoid high indoor emission rates for all pollutants and second to ensure adequate ventilation. A third factor is the use of air filtration or air cleaning to achieve further improvements where warranted. (letter)

  3. Influence of Geographic Factors on the Life Cycle Climate Change Impacts of Renewable Energy Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortier, M. O. P.

    2017-12-01

    Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a valuable tool to measure the cradle-to-grave climate change impacts of the sustainable energy systems that are planned to replace conventional fossil energy-based systems. The recent inclusion of geographic specificity in bioenergy LCAs has shown that the relative sustainability of these energy sources is often dependent on geographic factors, such as the climate change impact of changing the land cover and local resource availability. However, this development has not yet been implemented to most LCAs of energy systems that do not have biological feedstocks, such as wind, water, and solar-based energy systems. For example, the tidal velocity where tidal rotors are installed can significantly alter the life cycle climate change impacts of electricity generated using the same technology in different locations. For LCAs of solar updraft towers, the albedo change impacts arising from changing the reflectivity of the land that would be converted can be of the same magnitude as other life cycle process climate change impacts. Improvements to determining the life cycle climate change impacts of renewable energy technologies can be made by utilizing GIS and satellite data and by conducting site-specific analyses. This practice can enhance our understanding of the life cycle environmental impacts of technologies that are aimed to reduce the impacts of our current energy systems, and it can improve the siting of new systems to optimize a reduction in climate change impacts.

  4. The Role of Natural Resource Professionals in Addressing Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shorna B. Allred

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Natural resource professionals, ranging from forest managers and educators to floodplain managers, play a critical role in implementing and conducting outreach with regards to climate mitigation and adaptation appropriate to local and regional scales. Natural resource professionals can also pave the way by adopting actions that serve as demonstrations of efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions or adapt natural systems for the future. A web survey of 1488 natural resource professionals across New York State (NYS was conducted to assess their attitudes toward climate change, views toward climate change mitigation and adaptation priorities, actions taken to address climate change, and barriers faced as they relate to their professional responsibilities. The majority of natural resource professionals believe that climate change is happening, but there was slightly less agreement about human causes of climate change. Most natural resource professionals (69% see evidence of how climate change is impacting natural resources in NYS, but few (17% believed that there was sufficient information about how to address climate impacts at the local level. Nearly 60% of natural resources professionals undertook climate mitigation or adaptation actions in their work. Prominent influencing factors for action were proactive leadership and local impacts. Barriers to taking action on climate change were a lack of human and financial resources, the nature of costs relative to benefits, and lack of perceived threat. As managers and educators responsible for local water, land, and wildlife resources, natural resource professionals witness changes resulting from climate change first-hand. This paper will be useful to decision-makers at state and federal government levels regarding policies, incentives, and guidance that can be created with the goal of promoting a sound natural resource strategy in support of climate change readiness.

  5. Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

    2014-12-01

    Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

  6. Human-experienced temperature changes exceed global average climate changes for all income groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiang, S. M.; Parshall, L.

    2009-12-01

    Global climate change alters local climates everywhere. Many climate change impacts, such as those affecting health, agriculture and labor productivity, depend on these local climatic changes, not global mean change. Traditional, spatially averaged climate change estimates are strongly influenced by the response of icecaps and oceans, providing limited information on human-experienced climatic changes. If used improperly by decision-makers, these estimates distort estimated costs of climate change. We overlay the IPCC’s 20 GCM simulations on the global population distribution to estimate local climatic changes experienced by the world population in the 21st century. The A1B scenario leads to a well-known rise in global average surface temperature of +2.0°C between the periods 2011-2030 and 2080-2099. Projected on the global population distribution in 2000, the median human will experience an annual average rise of +2.3°C (4.1°F) and the average human will experience a rise of +2.4°C (4.3°F). Less than 1% of the population will experience changes smaller than +1.0°C (1.8°F), while 25% and 10% of the population will experience changes greater than +2.9°C (5.2°F) and +3.5°C (6.2°F) respectively. 67% of the world population experiences temperature changes greater than the area-weighted average change of +2.0°C (3.6°F). Using two approaches to characterize the spatial distribution of income, we show that the wealthiest, middle and poorest thirds of the global population experience similar changes, with no group dominating the global average. Calculations for precipitation indicate that there is little change in average precipitation, but redistributions of precipitation occur in all income groups. These results suggest that economists and policy-makers using spatially averaged estimates of climate change to approximate local changes will systematically and significantly underestimate the impacts of climate change on the 21st century population. Top: The

  7. Asking about climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise

    2014-01-01

    and the number and types of interviews conducted are, for example, not always clear. Information on crucial aspects of qualitative research like researcher positionality, social positions of key informants, the use of field assistants, language issues and post-fieldwork treatment of data is also lacking in many...... with climate change? On the basis of a literature review of all articles published in Global Environmental Change between 2000 and 2012 that deal with human dimensions of climate change using qualitative methods this paper provides some answers but also raises some concerns. The period and length of fieldwork......There is increasing evidence that climate change will strongly affect people across the globe. Likely impacts of and adaptations to climate change are drawing the attention of researchers from many disciplines. In adaptation research focus is often on perceptions of climate change...

  8. Integrated assessment of climate change with reductions of methane emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amstel, van A.R.

    2005-01-01

    We have been living in the anthropocene era since about 1950, and evidence of human influence on the natural ecosystems and climate is mounting. Reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are needed to reduce the effects of climate change in the future. In an integrated assessment with the IMAGE model

  9. Global change and marine communities: Alien species and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Occhipinti-Ambrogi, Anna

    2007-01-01

    Anthropogenic influences on the biosphere since the advent of the industrial age are increasingly causing global changes. Climatic change and the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are ranking high in scientific and public agendas, and other components of global change are also frequently addressed, among which are the introductions of non indigenous species (NIS) in biogeographic regions well separated from the donor region, often followed by spectacular invasions. In the marine environment, both climatic change and spread of alien species have been studied extensively; this review is aimed at examining the main responses of ecosystems to climatic change, taking into account the increasing importance of biological invasions. Some general principles on NIS introductions in the marine environment are recalled, such as the importance of propagule pressure and of development stages during the time course of an invasion. Climatic change is known to affect many ecological properties; it interacts also with NIS in many possible ways. Direct (proximate) effects on individuals and populations of altered physical-chemical conditions are distinguished from indirect effects on emergent properties (species distribution, diversity, and production). Climatically driven changes may affect both local dispersal mechanisms, due to the alteration of current patterns, and competitive interactions between NIS and native species, due to the onset of new thermal optima and/or different carbonate chemistry. As well as latitudinal range expansions of species correlated with changing temperature conditions, and effects on species richness and the correlated extinction of native species, some invasions may provoke multiple effects which involve overall ecosystem functioning (material flow between trophic groups, primary production, relative extent of organic material decomposition, extent of benthic-pelagic coupling). Some examples are given, including a special

  10. Introducing an integrated climate change perspective in POPs modelling, monitoring and regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamon, L.; Dalla Valle, M.; Critto, A.; Marcomini, A.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a review on the implications of climate change on the monitoring, modelling and regulation of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Current research gaps are also identified and discussed. Long-term data sets are essential to identify relationships between climate fluctuations and changes in chemical species distribution. Reconstructing the influence of climatic changes on POPs environmental behaviour is very challenging in some local studies, and some insights can be obtained by the few available dated sediment cores or by studying POPs response to inter-annual climate fluctuations. Knowledge gaps and future projections can be studied by developing and applying various modelling tools, identifying compounds susceptibility to climate change, local and global effects, orienting international policies. Long-term monitoring strategies and modelling exercises taking into account climate change should be considered when devising new regulatory plans in chemicals management. - Climate change implications on POPs are addressed here with special attention to monitoring, modelling and regulation issues.

  11. Climate change influences on environment as a determinant of Indigenous health: Relationships to place, sea ice, and health in an Inuit community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durkalec, Agata; Furgal, Chris; Skinner, Mark W; Sheldon, Tom

    2015-07-01

    This paper contributes to the literature on Indigenous health, human dimensions of climate change, and place-based dimensions of health by examining the role of environment for Inuit health in the context of a changing climate. We investigated the relationship between one key element of the environment - sea ice - and diverse aspects of health in an Inuit community in northern Canada, drawing on population health and health geography approaches. We used a case study design and participatory and collaborative approach with the community of Nain in northern Labrador, Canada. Focus groups (n = 2), interviews (n = 22), and participant observation were conducted in 2010-11. We found that an appreciation of place was critical for understanding the full range of health influences of sea ice use for Inuit. Negative physical health impacts were reported on less frequently than positive health benefits of sea ice use, which were predominantly related to mental/emotional, spiritual, social, and cultural health. We found that sea ice means freedom for sea ice users, which we suggest influences individual and collective health through relationships between sea ice use, culture, knowledge, and autonomy. While sea ice users reported increases in negative physical health impacts such as injuries and stress related to changing environmental conditions, we suggest that less tangible climate change impacts related to losses of health benefits and disruptions to place meanings and place attachment may be even more significant. Our findings indicate that climate change is resulting in and compounding existing environmental dispossession for Inuit. They also demonstrate the necessity of considering place meanings, culture, and socio-historical context to assess the complexity of climate change impacts on Indigenous environmental health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Climate change effects on North American inland fish populations and assemblages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Abigail J.; Myers, Bonnie; Chu, Cindy; Eby, Lisa A.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Kovach, Ryan P.; Krabbenhoft, Trevor J.; Kwak, Thomas J.; Lyons, John; Paukert, Craig P.; Whitney, James E.

    2016-01-01

    Climate is a critical driver of many fish populations, assemblages, and aquatic communities. However, direct observational studies of climate change impacts on North American inland fishes are rare. In this synthesis, we (1) summarize climate trends that may influence North American inland fish populations and assemblages, (2) compile 31 peer-reviewed studies of documented climate change effects on North American inland fish populations and assemblages, and (3) highlight four case studies representing a variety of observed responses ranging from warmwater systems in the southwestern and southeastern United States to coldwater systems along the Pacific Coast and Canadian Shield. We conclude by identifying key data gaps and research needs to inform adaptive, ecosystem-based approaches to managing North American inland fishes and fisheries in a changing climate.

  13. Climate engineering and the risk of rapid climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ross, Andrew; Damon Matthews, H

    2009-01-01

    Recent research has highlighted risks associated with the use of climate engineering as a method of stabilizing global temperatures, including the possibility of rapid climate warming in the case of abrupt removal of engineered radiative forcing. In this study, we have used a simple climate model to estimate the likely range of temperature changes associated with implementation and removal of climate engineering. In the absence of climate engineering, maximum annual rates of warming ranged from 0.015 to 0.07 deg. C/year, depending on the model's climate sensitivity. Climate engineering resulted in much higher rates of warming, with the temperature change in the year following the removal of climate engineering ranging from 0.13 to 0.76 deg. C. High rates of temperature change were sustained for two decades following the removal of climate engineering; rates of change of 0.5 (0.3,0.1) deg. C/decade were exceeded over a 20 year period with 15% (75%, 100%) likelihood. Many ecosystems could be negatively affected by these rates of temperature change; our results suggest that climate engineering in the absence of deep emissions cuts could arguably constitute increased risk of dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system under the criteria laid out in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

  14. Climate change and Public health: vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzzone, F.; Setegn, S.

    2013-12-01

    Climate Change plays a significant role in public health. Changes in climate affect weather conditions that we are accustomed to. Increases in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events such as storms could increase the risk of dangerous flooding, high winds, and other direct threats to people and property. Changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and extreme events could enhance the spread of some diseases. According to studies by EPA, the impacts of climate change on health will depend on many factors. These factors include the effectiveness of a community's public health and safety systems to address or prepare for the risk and the behavior, age, gender, and economic status of individuals affected. Impacts will likely vary by region, the sensitivity of populations, the extent and length of exposure to climate change impacts, and society's ability to adapt to change. Transmissions of infectious disease have been associated with social, economic, ecological, health care access, and climatic factors. Some vector-borne diseases typically exhibit seasonal patterns in which the role of temperature and rainfall is well documented. Some of the infectious diseases that have been documented by previous studies, include the correlation between rainfall and drought in the occurrence of malaria, the influence of the dry season on epidemic meningococcal disease in the sub-Saharan African, and the importance of warm ocean waters in driving cholera occurrence in the Ganges River delta in Asia The rise of climate change has been a major concern in the public health sector. Climate change mainly affects vulnerable populations especially in developing countries; therefore, it's important that public health advocates are involve in the decision-making process in order to provide resources and preventative measures for the challenges that are associated with climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the vulnerability and impact of climate change

  15. Screening variability and change of soil moisture under wide-ranging climate conditions: Snow dynamics effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verrot, Lucile; Destouni, Georgia

    2015-01-01

    Soil moisture influences and is influenced by water, climate, and ecosystem conditions, affecting associated ecosystem services in the landscape. This paper couples snow storage-melting dynamics with an analytical modeling approach to screening basin-scale, long-term soil moisture variability and change in a changing climate. This coupling enables assessment of both spatial differences and temporal changes across a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. Model application is exemplified for two major Swedish hydrological basins, Norrström and Piteälven. These are located along a steep temperature gradient and have experienced different hydro-climatic changes over the time period of study, 1950-2009. Spatially, average intra-annual variability of soil moisture differs considerably between the basins due to their temperature-related differences in snow dynamics. With regard to temporal change, the long-term average state and intra-annual variability of soil moisture have not changed much, while inter-annual variability has changed considerably in response to hydro-climatic changes experienced so far in each basin.

  16. The Assessment of Vulnerability of Industrial Parks to Climate Change in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryu, J. E.; Lee, D. K.; Jung, T. Y.; Choi, K. L.; Lee, S. H.

    2014-12-01

    Many countries are developing policy and measures to adapt to climate changes at the national and local levels, but the assessment of vulnerability to climate change and the establishment of countermeasures in the industries considering industrial factors such as worker, infrastructure are insufficient due to the characteristics of diverse processes and fields. In South Korea, the national government provides infrastructures for industrial parks where various companies in manufacturing and other industries are concentrated . Because of their concentration, damages can aggravate in case of natural disasters such as typhoons. In this study, vulnerability indices for climate change were developed and evaluated using climate scenarios for the climate exposure of localized terrential downpour for eight industrial parks. The vulnerability indices were selected and reviewed through literature review and two in-depth interviews with experts in various industries, and the assessment of vulnerability to climate change was conducted by collecting relevant information including the Directory of Industrial Complexes. The vulnerability of each industrial park to climate change was assessed for four time serious such as the base line, 2020s, 2050s, and 2100s . As a result, even though the possibility of localized heavy rain was the highest in Yeosu(Southeast coast) at present, but it was predicted that Gwangyang(Southwest coast) will be higher in the future. For the influences of climate including sensitivity, Ulsan Mipo(Southeast coast) is currently under the highest influence of climate, but the Gumi(Inland area) was forecasted to be under the highest influence of climate in the future. As a result of the assessment of vulnerability to climate change including adaptive capacity, Gumi and Myongji Noksan(Southeast coast) were most vulnerable to localized heavy rain. The degree of vulnerability of all the industrial parks except Ulsan and Yeosu was forecasted to increase in the

  17. Estimation of climate change impacts on hydrology and floods in Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veijalainen, N.

    2012-07-01

    Climate scenarios project increases in air temperature and precipitation in Finland during the 21st century and these will results in changes in hydrology. In this thesis climate change impacts on hydrology and floods in Finland were estimated with hydrological modelling and several climate scenarios. One of the goals was to understand the influence of different processes and catchment characteristics on the hydrological response to climate change in boreal conditions. The tool of the climate change impact assessment was the conceptual hydrological model WSFS (Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System). The studies employed and compared two methods of transferring the climate change signal from climate models to the WSFS hydrological model (delta change approach and direct bias corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) data). Direct RCM data was used to simulate transient hydrological scenarios for 1951- 2100 and the simulation results were analysed to detect changes in water balance components and trends in discharge series. The results revealed that seasonal changes in discharges in Finland were the clearest impacts of climate change. Air temperature increase will affect snow accumulation and melt, increase winter discharge and decrease spring snowmelt discharge. The impacts of climate change on floods in Finland by 2070-2099 varied considerably depending on the location, catchment characteristics, timing of the floods and climate scenario. Floods caused by spring snowmelt decreased or remained unchanged, whereas autumn and winter floods caused by precipitation increased especially in large lakes and their outflow rivers. Since estimation of climate change impacts includes uncertainties in every step of the long modelling process, the accumulated uncertainties by the end of the process become large. The large differences between results from different climate scenarios highlight the need to use several climate scenarios in climate change impact studies

  18. Influences of geomorphology and geology on alpine treeline in the American West - More important than climatic influences?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, D.R.; Malanson, G.P.; Walsh, S.J.; Fagre, D.B.

    2007-01-01

    The spatial distribution and pattern of alpine treeline in the American West reflect the overarching influences of geological history, lithology and structure, and geomorphic processes and landforms, and geologic and geomorphic factors—both forms and processes—can control the spatiotemporal response of the ecotone to climate change. These influences occur at spatial scales ranging from the continental scale to fine scale processes and landforms at the slope scale. Past geomorphic influences, particularly Pleistocene glaciation, have also left their impact on treeline, and treelines across the west are still adjusting to post-Pleistocene conditions within Pleistocene-created landforms. Current fine scale processes include solifluction and changes on relict solifluction and digging by animals. These processes should be examined in detail in future studies to facilitate a better understanding of where individual tree seedlings become established as a primary response of the ecotone to climate change.

  19. Assessing Climate Change Impacts for DoD installations in the Southwest United States During the Warm Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-10

    thunderstorms under the influence of anthropogenic climate change. Convective-permitting modeling is the most viable and physically robust approach to...been considered. Long-term climate changes during approximately the last 30 years (since 1980) are deemed to be anthropogenically influenced , and...1998. Implementation of prognostic cloud scheme for a regional spectral model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 2621–2639 IPCC, 2013. Climate Change 2013. The

  20. Uncertainty and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Berliner, L. Mark

    2003-01-01

    Anthropogenic, or human-induced, climate change is a critical issue in science and in the affairs of humankind. Though the target of substantial research, the conclusions of climate change studies remain subject to numerous uncertainties. This article presents a very brief review of the basic arguments regarding anthropogenic climate change with particular emphasis on uncertainty.

  1. Expertise and governance of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Encinas de Munagorri, R.; Colson, R.; Denis, B.; Leclerc, O.; Rousseau, S.; Torre-Schaub, M.

    2009-01-01

    Global warming has become in few years a prominent problem which requires the implementation of a world governance to be solved. However, the share of human activities in the global warming phenomenon and the actions susceptible to mitigate the greenhouse gases emission generate scientifical, political and legal conflicts at the same time. Assessing the taking into account of climate change by international institutions raises several questions. By what process a true fact can become established at the world scale? Are experts free or constrain by procedure rules? How to regulate the worldwide carbon trade? Is the governance requirement foreseen in international systems respected by decision making practices? How to explain experts' omnipresence in the observance mechanisms of climate change treaties? Is their influence determining, at the international and internal scale, in the elaboration of a climate law? These questions, analyzed by researchers in law and political science, are indissociable of method stakes with an inter-disciplinary horizon. This book, result of a collective work, is not limited to a description of standards and actors' practices in force. Its ambition is to apprehend law, science and politics in their interactions. Climate change is an appropriate topic to think about the links between the different scientific disciplines. The book concludes with a prospective about the contribution of laws analysis to expertise which involves the dogmatic, realistic and epistemologic aspects. (J.S.)

  2. Overheating risk assessment of naturally ventilated classroom under the influence of climate change in hot and humid region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Kuo-Tsang

    2013-04-01

    Natural ventilation (NV) is considered one of the passive building strategies used for reducing cooling energy demand. The utilization of nature wind for cooling down indoor thermal environment to reach thermal comfort requires knowledge of adequately positioning the building fenestrations, designing inlet-outlet related opening ratios, planning unobstructed cross ventilation paths, and, the most important, assessing the utilization feasibility base on local climatic variables. Furthermore, factors that influence the indoor thermal condition include building envelope heat gain, indoor air velocity, indoor heat gain (e.g. heat discharges from occupant's body, lighting fixture, electrical appliances), and outdoor climate. Among the above, the indoor thermal performance of NV building is significantly dependent to outdoor climate conditions. In hot and humid Taiwan, under college school classrooms are usually operated in natural ventilation mode and are more vulnerable to climate change in regard to maintain indoor thermal comfort. As climate changes in progress, NV classrooms would expect to encounter more events of overheating in the near future, which result in more severe heat stress, and would risk the utilization of natural ventilation. To evaluate the overheating risk under the influence of recent climate change, an actual top floor elementary school classroom with 30 students located at north Taiwan was modeled. Long-term local hourly meteorological data were gathered and further constructed into EnergyPlus Weather Files (EPWs) format for building thermal dynamic simulation to discuss the indoor thermal environmental variation during the period of 1998 to 2012 by retrospective simulation. As indoor thermal environment is an overall condition resulting from a series combination of various factors, sub-hourly building simulation tool, EnergyPlus, coupled with the above fifteen years' EPWs was adopted to predict hourly indoor parameters of mean radiant

  3. Evidence of Climate Change (Global Warming) and Temperature Increases in Arctic Areas

    OpenAIRE

    Eric Kojo Wu Aikins

    2012-01-01

    This paper contributes to the debate on the proximate causes of climate change. Also, it discusses the impact of the global temperature increases since the beginning of the twentieth century and the effectiveness of climate change models in isolating the primary cause (anthropogenic influences or natural variability in temperature) of the observed temperature increases that occurred within this period. The paper argues that if climate scientist and policymakers ignore the...

  4. The effect of seasonal changes and climatic factors on suicide attempts of young people.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akkaya-Kalayci, Türkan; Vyssoki, Benjamin; Winkler, Dietmar; Willeit, Matthaeus; Kapusta, Nestor D; Dorffner, Georg; Özlü-Erkilic, Zeliha

    2017-11-15

    Seasonal changes and climatic factors like ambient temperature, sunlight duration and rainfall can influence suicidal behavior. This study analyses the relationship between seasonal changes and climatic variations and suicide attempts in 2131 young patients in Istanbul, Turkey. In our study sample, there was an association between suicide attempts in youths and seasonal changes, as suicide attempts occurred most frequently during summer in females as well as in males. Furthermore, there was a positive correlation between the mean temperature over the past 10 days and temperature at the index day and suicide attempts in females. After seasonality effects were mathematically removed, the mean temperature 10 days before a suicide attempt remained significant in males only, indicating a possible short-term influence of temperature on suicide attempts. This study shows an association between suicide attempts of young people and climatic changes, in particular temperature changes as well as seasonal changes. Therefore, the influence of seasonal changes and climatic factors on young suicide attempters should get more attention in research to understand the biopsychosocial mechanisms playing a role in suicide attempts of young people. As suicide attempts most frequently occur in young people, further research is of considerable clinical importance.

  5. Climate change: Bio-technologies are facing a huge challenge. Why is climate changing? Control and measurement of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Soils at the heart of climate change. Between pollution and climate change, the survival of soil organisms. Modelling microbial degradation in soils to analyse greenhouse gas releases. A threat against plant health. The opinion of the seed industry. Truly living clouds. Language, the other stake of the struggle against climate changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salas y Melia, David; Delmotte, Marc; Chenu, Claire; Chevallier, Tiphaine; Mougin, Christian; Lamy, Isabelle; Caquet, Thierry; Garnier, Patricia; Sache, Ivan; Pagesse, Pierre; Amato, Pierre; Desprez, Basile; Vernet, Agnes

    2015-01-01

    As the Rio Earth Summit in 1992 decided to react to limit the irrecoverable global warming, this publication, through several articles, outlines that this issue has not progressed at all after 23 years on a political point of view, and has even regressed with respect to initially defined objectives, but has progressed in terms of understanding of climate change under the influence of our production modes, notably in the agriculture sector. Thus, the articles discuss or recall the origin and process of climate change, how greenhouse gas emissions are controlled and measured, how soil are impacted or play a role in climate change as the survival of soil organisms is at stake under the pressure of pollution and climate change, how climate change can be a threat for plants, how the seed industry perceives these issues, how micro-organisms present in the air and clouds are now a topic in atmosphere sciences. The last article discusses the importance of intelligibility of scientific publications on these issues

  6. China's response to climate change issues after Paris Climate Change Conference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun Gao

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The Paris Climate Change Conference was successfully concluded with the Paris Agreement, which is a milestone for the world in collectively combating climate change. By participating in IPCC assessments and conducting national climate change assessments, China has been increasing its understanding of the issue. For the first time, China's top leader attended the Conference of the Parties, which indicates the acknowledgement of the rationality and necessity of climate change response by China at different levels. Moreover, this participation reflects China's commitment to including climate change in its ecology improvement program and pursuing a low-carbon society and economy. In order to ensure the success of the Paris Conference, China has contributed significantly. China's constructive participation in global governance shows that China is a responsible power. These principles such as the creation of a future of win–win cooperation with each country contributing to the best of its ability; a future of the rule of law, fairness, and justice; and a future of inclusiveness, mutual learning, and common development will serve as China's guidelines in its efforts to facilitate the implementation of the Paris Agreement and participate in the design of international systems.

  7. China's response to climate change issues after Paris Climate Change Conference

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAO Yun

    2016-01-01

    The Paris Climate Change Conference was successfully concluded with the Paris Agreement, which is a milestone for the world in collectively combating climate change. By participating in IPCC assessments and conducting national climate change assessments, China has been increasing its understanding of the issue. For the first time, China's top leader attended the Conference of the Parties, which indicates the acknowledgement of the rationality and necessity of climate change response by China at different levels. Moreover, this participation reflects China's commitment to including climate change in its ecology improvement program and pursuing a low-carbon society and economy. In order to ensure the success of the Paris Conference, China has contributed significantly. China's constructive participation in global governance shows that China is a responsible power. These principles such as the creation of a future of winewin cooperation with each country contributing to the best of its ability;a future of the rule of law, fairness, and justice;and a future of inclusiveness, mutual learning, and common development will serve as China's guidelines in its efforts to facilitate the implementation of the Paris Agreement and participate in the design of international systems.

  8. Interactions between above- and belowground organisms modified in climate change experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevnbak, Karen; Scherber, Christoph; Gladbach, David J.; Beier, Claus; Mikkelsen, Teis N.; Christensen, Søren

    2012-11-01

    Climate change has been shown to affect ecosystem process rates and community composition, with direct and indirect effects on belowground food webs. In particular, altered rates of herbivory under future climate can be expected to influence above-belowground interactions. Here, we use a multifactor, field-scale climate change experiment and independently manipulate atmospheric CO2 concentration, air and soil temperature and drought in all combinations since 2005. We show that changes in these factors modify the interaction between above- and belowground organisms. We use an insect herbivore to experimentally increase aboveground herbivory in grass phytometers exposed to all eight combinations of climate change factors for three years. Aboveground herbivory increased the abundance of belowground protozoans, microbial growth and microbial nitrogen availability. Increased CO2 modified these links through a reduction in herbivory and cascading effects through the soil food web. Interactions between CO2, drought and warming can affect belowground protozoan abundance. Our findings imply that climate change affects aboveground-belowground interactions through changes in nutrient availability.

  9. Modulation of sociotechnical change as climate change challenge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arentsen, M.J.; Eberg, J.W.

    2001-01-01

    Results of the MATRIC (Management of Technology Responses to the Climate Change Challenge) project are summarized. The project empirically studied technological change and innovation to learn more about the contingencies conditioning and influencing these processes with the aim to recommend national technology oriented climate change policies. The first chapter explains the background, the central research question, the structure and the methodology of Matric. The central research question was how to modulate the ongoing dynamics of socio-technical change to the climate change needs. Chapter two summarizes the core of the analytical framework of Matric. The fundamental idea of social embedding of technology has been the analytical point of departure of the Matric project. It says that innovations emerge and technology changes in close interaction with its social environment. The social environment turns out to be a strong conditioner of technological change and development and therefore, technology and its embedding social environment tend to co-evolve in the course of time. Co-evolution of technology and its social environment theoretically draws on evolutionary oriented economics and sociology. Both theoretical traditions are in turn inspired by biologically oriented. Chapter three summarizes the empirical findings of the analysis of socio-technical change patterns in three cases: electricity generation and use, car-based transport and mobility and eco-efficiency in industrial production. The cases have been selected for their climate change impact and for their social and economic significance. Chapter four comparatively analyzes the significance of the analytical and empirical findings of Matric for the central research question of the project. The chapter comparatively analysis the general pattern of the development, the change and development of the socio-technical regimes, the socio-technical governance arrangements and processes and the public policy

  10. Elevational shifts in thermal suitability for mountain pine beetle population growth in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbara J. Bentz; Jacob P. Duncan; James A. Powell

    2016-01-01

    Future forests are being shaped by changing climate and disturbances. Climate change is causing large-scale forest declines globally, in addition to distributional shifts of many tree species. Because environmental cues dictate insect seasonality and population success, climate change is also influencing tree-killing bark beetles. The mountain pine beetle,...

  11. Modelling Climate change influence on runoff and soil losses in a rainfed catchment with Mediterranean climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Concepción Ramos, Maria; Martínez-Casasnovas, José A.

    2015-04-01

    The magnitude of erosion processes, widespread throughout the Mediterranean areas, may be enhanced due to changes in seasonal precipitation regimes and an increase of extreme events. The present research shows the results of possible effects of climate change on runoff and soil loss in a rainfed catchment located in the Barcelona province (NE Spain).In the study area, vines are the main land use, cultivated under the Penedès designation of origin. The present research shows the results of runoff and soil loss simulated using SWAT for a small basin with vines as main land use. Input data included detailed soil and land use maps, and daily climate data of the period 1998-2012. The analysis compared simulated results for years with different climatic conditions during that period and the average with predictions for the scenario 2020, 2050 and 2080 based on the HadCM3 GCM under A2 scenario and the trends observed in the area related to maximum rainfall intensity. The model was calibrated and validated using data recorded at different subbasins, using soil water and runoff samples. Taking into account the predicted changes in temperature and precipitation, the model simulated a decrease in soil loss associated with a decrease in runoff, mainly driven by an increase in evapotranspiration. However, the trend in soil losses varied when the changes in precipitation could balance the increase of evapotranspiration and also due to the increase of rainfall intensity. An increase in maximum rainfall intensity in spring and autumn (main rainy seasons) produced significant increases in soil loss: by up to 12% for the 2020 scenario and up to 57% for the 2050 scenario, although high differences may exists depending on rainfall characteristics. The research confirmed the difficulty of predicting future soil loss in this region, which has a very high climate inter-annual variability.

  12. Misconceptions Surrounding Climate Change: A Review of the Literature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Templeton, C. M.; McNeal, K. S.; Libarkin, J.

    2011-12-01

    Misconceptions about climate change abound in every corner of society. The result manifests itself ranging from apprehension to total disregard for climate change conditions. According to several sources, however, a large percentage of the U. S. population do, indeed indicate some concern over global warming and climate change in general. These climate change misconceptions are numerous and include, to name a few; confusion between weather and climate, how greenhouse gases are affecting the earth, the effects of ozone depletion, earth's natural cycles, volcanic activity, nuclear waste and a host of other anthropogenic influences. This paper is a review of the current research literature relating to climate change misconceptions. These errant views will be addressed, cataloged, enumerated, and ranked to get a grasp on where the general population, politicians, scientists, and educators as well as students stand on informed climate change information. The categories where misconceptions arise have been identified in this literature review study and include the following: Natural cycles of the earth, ecological which include deforestation, urban development and any human intervention on the environment, educational - including teacher strategies, student understanding and textbook updates, emotional, ozone layer and its interactions, polar ice, political regulations, mandates and laws, pollution from human sources as well as from nature, religious beliefs and dogma and social beliefs. We suggest appropriate solutions for addressing these misconceptions, especially in the classroom setting, and broadly include available funding sources for work in climate change education. Some solutions include need for compilation of appropriate education resources and materials for public use, need for the development of educational materials that appropriately address the variety of publics, and need for programs that are conducting climate change education research and EPO work to

  13. Climate model diversity in the Northern Hemisphere Polar vortex response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, I.; Seager, R.; Hitchcock, P.; Cohen, N.

    2017-12-01

    Global climate models vary widely in their predictions of the future of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex, with some showing a significant strengthening of the vortex, some showing a significant weakening and others displaying a response that is not outside of the range expected from internal variability alone. This inter-model spread in stratospheric predictions may account for some inter-model spread in tropospheric predictions with important implications for the storm tracks and regional climate change, particularly for the North Atlantic sector. Here, our current state of understanding of this model spread and its tropospheric impacts will be reviewed. Previous studies have proposed relationships between a models polar vortex response to climate change and its present day vortex climatology while others have demonstrated links between a models polar vortex response and changing wave activity coming up from the troposphere below under a warming climate. The extent to which these mechanisms can account for the spread in polar vortex changes exhibited by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 models will be assessed. In addition, preliminary results from a series of idealized experiments with the Community Atmosphere Model will be presented. In these experiments, nudging of the stratospheric zonal mean state has been imposed to mimic the inter-model spread in the polar vortex response to climate change so that the downward influence of the spread in zonal mean stratospheric responses on the tropospheric circulation can be assessed within one model.

  14. Biometeorological Forecasts as Adaptation Measures in the Contest of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ieva Nariūnaitė

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The basic aim of this paper is to review biometeorological forecasts in Lithuania as well as their necessities and adjustments toward climate change. Weather alterations and climate anomalies make a substantial impact on human health (physical and psychological, and therefore biometeorological forecasts are useful to foresee and elude some negative climate influence. Article in Lithuanian

  15. Responses of Terrestrial Ecosystems’ Net Primary Productivity to Future Regional Climate Change in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Dongsheng; Wu, Shaohong; Yin, Yunhe

    2013-01-01

    The impact of regional climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) is an important aspect in the study of ecosystems’ response to global climate change. China’s ecosystems are very sensitive to climate change owing to the influence of the East Asian monsoon. The Lund–Potsdam–Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for China (LPJ-CN), a global dynamical vegetation model developed for China’s terrestrial ecosystems, was applied in this study to simulate the NPP changes affected by future climate change. As the LPJ-CN model is based on natural vegetation, the simulation in this study did not consider the influence of anthropogenic activities. Results suggest that future climate change would have adverse effects on natural ecosystems, with NPP tending to decrease in eastern China, particularly in the temperate and warm temperate regions. NPP would increase in western China, with a concentration in the Tibetan Plateau and the northwest arid regions. The increasing trend in NPP in western China and the decreasing trend in eastern China would be further enhanced by the warming climate. The spatial distribution of NPP, which declines from the southeast coast to the northwest inland, would have minimal variation under scenarios of climate change. PMID:23593325

  16. Rural perspectives of climate change: a study from Saurastra and Kutch of Western India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moghariya, Dineshkumar P; Smardon, Richard C

    2014-08-01

    This research reports on rural people's beliefs and understandings of climate change in the Saurastra/ Kutch region of Western India. Results suggest that although most rural respondents have not heard about the scientific concept of climate change, they have detected changes in the climate. They appear to hold divergent understandings about climate change and have different priorities for causes and solutions. Many respondents appear to base their understandings of climate change upon a mix of ideas drawn from various sources and rely on different kinds of reasoning in relation to both causes of and solutions to climate change to those used by scientists. Environmental conditions were found to influence individuals' understanding of climate change, while demographic factors were not. The results suggest a need to learn more about people's conceptual models and understandings of climate change and a need to include local climate research in communication efforts.

  17. Influence of the North Atlantic oceanograghic and climatic parameters on the Spanish European Eel population recruitment: relationships in the past and for a future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribalaygua, Jaime; Pórtoles, Javier; Monjo, Robert; Díaz, Estíbaliz; Korta, María; Chust, Guillem

    2016-04-01

    The status of the European eel population is critical.; the annual recruitment of glass eel to European waters in 2015 is 1.2% of the 1960-1979 level in the 'North Sea' area, and 8.4% in the rest of Europe (ICES 2015) . There are a number of anthropogenic impacts potentially affecting eel population including commercial exploitation, habitat loss, dam and weir construction, hydropower, pumping stations and surface water abstractions. Furthermore, the first eel stages and larval migration and marine survival are heavily influenced by oceanic and climatic factors since the species breeds in the Sargasso Sea and migrates to the continental shelf of the Atlantic coast of Europe and North Africa. Therefore, the study of the relations between recruitment and oceanic conditions may allow to study the potential effect of climatic change on the future eel recruitment and therefore stock. In the present study, the relation between glass eel recruitment and oceanic and climatic factors has been studied. Historic glass eel catches data beginning in the 50s from two Mediterranean and two Atlantic estuaries have been used as a proxy of recruitment. The relation of catches with the main oceanographic and climatic factors identified in the literature was established using an ocean reanalysis, the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) and determined which variables are significantly related to the number of catches. The analysis shows significant relationships between catches and oceanic (Surface Downward Stress, Sea Water Temperature and Sea Water Velocity) and atmospheric (NAO Index, AMO Index) variables. Subsequently, we applied the results of three climate models (GFDL-ESM2M, CanESM2 and CNRM-CM5), associated with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under two simulations of climate change (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), both associated with the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC, for possible future influences on the eel. This research was funded by the Spanish

  18. Regional Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Land Use in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, K. F.; Wang, G.; You, L.

    2014-12-01

    Agriculture is a key element of the human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) that is influenced by climate and can potentially influence regional climate. Temperature and precipitation directly impact the crop yield (by controlling photosynthesis, respiration and other physiological processes) that then affects agricultural land use pattern. In feedback, the resulting changes in land use and land cover play an important role to determine the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. The assessment of future agricultural land use is, therefore, of great importance in climate change study. In this study, we develop a prototype land use projection model and, using this model, project the changes to land use pattern and future land cover map accounting for climate-induced yield changes for major crops in West Africa. Among the inputs to the land use projection model are crop yield changes simulated by the crop model DSSAT, driven with the climate forcing data from the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5, which features a projected decrease of future mean crop yield and increase of inter-annual variability. Another input to the land use projection model is the projected changes of food demand in the future. In a so-called "dumb-farmer scenario" without any adaptation, the combined effect of decrease in crop yield and increase in food demand will lead to a significant increase in agricultural land use in future years accompanied by a decrease in forest and grass area. Human adaptation through land use optimization in an effort to minimize agricultural expansion is found to have little impact on the overall areas of agricultural land use. While the choice of the General Circulation Model (GCM) to derive initial and boundary conditions for the regional climate model can be a source of uncertainty in projecting the future LULCC, results from sensitivity experiments indicate that the changes

  19. Analysing countries' contribution to climate change: scientific and policy-related choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elzen, Michel den; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Hoehne, Niklas; Trudinger, Cathy; Lowe, Jason; Matthews, Ben; Romstad, Bard; Pires de Campos, Christiano; Andronova, Natalia

    2005-01-01

    This paper evaluates the influence of different policy-related and scientific choices on the calculated regional contributions to global climate change (the 'Brazilian Proposal'). Policy-related choices include the time period of emissions, the mix of greenhouse gases and different indicators of climate change impacts. The scientific choices include historical emissions and model representations of the climate system. We generated and compared results of several simple climate models. We find that the relative contributions of different nations to global climate change-from emissions of greenhouse gases alone-are quite robust, despite the varying model complexity and differences in calculated absolute changes. For the default calculations, the average calculated contributions to the global mean surface temperature increase in 2000 are about 40% from OECD, 14% from Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union, 24% from Asia and 22% from Africa and Latin America. Policy-related choices, such as time period of emissions, climate change indicator and gas mix generally have larger influence on the results than scientific choices. More specifically, choosing a later attribution start date (1990 instead of 1890) for historical emissions, decreases the contributions of regions that started emitting early, such as the OECD countries by 6 percentage points, whereas it increases the contribution of late emitters such as Asia by 8 percentage points. However, only including the fossil CO 2 emissions instead of the emissions of all Kyoto gases (fossil and land use change), increases the OECD contributions by 21 percentage points and decreases the contribution of Asia by 14 percentage points

  20. Pre-service teacher professional development on climate change: Assessment of workshop success and influence of prior knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veron, D. E.; Ad-Marbach, G.; Fox-Lykens, R.; Ozbay, G.; Sezen-Barrie, A.; Wolfson, J.

    2017-12-01

    As states move to adopt the next generation science standards, in-service teachers are being provided with professional development that introduces climate change content and best practices for teaching climate change in the classroom. However, research has shown that it is challenging to bring this information into the higher education curriculum in education courses for pre-service teachers due to curricular and programming constraints. Over two years, the Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Assessment and Research (MADE-CLEAR) project explored a professional development approach for pre-service teachers which employed paired workshops that resulted in participant-developed lesson plans based on climate change content. The workshops were designed to provide pre-service teachers with climate change content related to the carbon cycle and to model a variety of techniques and activities for presenting this information in the classroom. Lesson plans were developed between the first and second workshop, presented at the second workshop and discussed with peers and in-service teachers, and then revised in response to feedback from the second workshop. Participant climate change content knowledge was assessed before the first workshop, and after the final revision of the lesson plan was submitted to the MADE-CLEAR team. Climate content knowledge was also assessed using the same survey for additional pre-service teacher groups who did not participate in the professional development. Results show that while the paired workshop approach increased climate content knowledge, the amount of improvement varied depending on the participants' prior knowledge in climate change content. In addition, some alternate conceptions of climate change were not altered by participant involvement in the professional development approach. Revised lesson plans showed understanding of underlying climate change impacts and demonstrated awareness of appropriate techniques for introducing this

  1. Climate change impacts and adaptation: a Canadian perspective. Transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-08-01

    A brief summary of research over the past five years in the field of climate change, as it relates to key sectors in Canada, is presented in the report entitled: Climate change impacts and adaptation: a Canadian perspective. The emphasis of this chapter is on transportation, the role of adaptation in reducing vulnerabilities, and capitalizing on potential opportunities. Other sectors, such as fisheries, the coastal zone, tourism and human health might be affected by decisions made with regard to transportation. The areas that seem most vulnerable to climate change in transportation include northern ice roads, Great Lakes shipping, coastal infrastructure threatened by sea-level rise, and infrastructure located on permafrost. Most of the attention has been devoted to infrastructure and operations issues in northern Canada, despite most of the transportation activities taking place in southern Canada. Milder and or shorter winters might lead to savings, but additional knowledge is required before quantitative estimates can be made. The changed frequency of extreme climate events, and or changes in precipitation may influence other weather hazards or inefficiencies. If Canadians are prepared to be proactive, the report indicated that the effects of climate change on transportation may be largely manageable. 77 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs

  2. Climate change impacts and adaptation: a Canadian perspective. Transportation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-08-01

    A brief summary of research over the past five years in the field of climate change, as it relates to key sectors in Canada, is presented in the report entitled: Climate change impacts and adaptation: a Canadian perspective. The emphasis of this chapter is on transportation, the role of adaptation in reducing vulnerabilities, and capitalizing on potential opportunities. Other sectors, such as fisheries, the coastal zone, tourism and human health might be affected by decisions made with regard to transportation. The areas that seem most vulnerable to climate change in transportation include northern ice roads, Great Lakes shipping, coastal infrastructure threatened by sea-level rise, and infrastructure located on permafrost. Most of the attention has been devoted to infrastructure and operations issues in northern Canada, despite most of the transportation activities taking place in southern Canada. Milder and or shorter winters might lead to savings, but additional knowledge is required before quantitative estimates can be made. The changed frequency of extreme climate events, and or changes in precipitation may influence other weather hazards or inefficiencies. If Canadians are prepared to be proactive, the report indicated that the effects of climate change on transportation may be largely manageable. 77 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs.

  3. Impacts of climate change on mangrove ecosystems: A region by region overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Raymond D.; Friess, Daniel A.; Day, Richard H.; MacKenzie, Richard A.

    2016-01-01

    Inter-related and spatially variable climate change factors including sea level rise, increased storminess, altered precipitation regime and increasing temperature are impacting mangroves at regional scales. This review highlights extreme regional variation in climate change threats and impacts, and how these factors impact the structure of mangrove communities, their biodiversity and geomorphological setting. All these factors interplay to determine spatially variable resiliency to climate change impacts, and because mangroves are varied in type and geographical location, these systems are good models for understanding such interactions at different scales. Sea level rise is likely to influence mangroves in all regions although local impacts are likely to be more varied. Changes in the frequency and intensity of storminess are likely to have a greater impact on N and Central America, Asia, Australia, and East Africa than West Africa and S. America. This review also highlights the numerous geographical knowledge gaps of climate change impacts, with some regions particularly understudied (e.g., Africa and the Middle East). While there has been a recent drive to address these knowledge gaps especially in South America and Asia, further research is required to allow researchers to tease apart the processes that influence both vulnerability and resilience to climate change. A more globally representative view of mangroves would allow us to better understand the importance of mangrove type and landscape setting in determining system resiliency to future climate change.

  4. Climate of Tajikistan in connection with global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khakimov, F.Kh.; Mirzokhonova, S.O.; Mirzokhonava, N.A.

    2006-01-01

    The analysis of global climate change for different periods and its consequences on regional climate is given. The chronology of climate change in Tajikistan in various regions and the reasons leading or resulted to these changes are changes are shown as well

  5. How light competition between plants affects their response to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loon, van M.P.; Schieving, F.; Rietkerk, M.; Dekker, S.C.; Sterck, F.J.; Anten, N.P.R.

    2014-01-01

    How plants respond to climate change is of major concern, as plants will strongly impact future ecosystem functioning, food production and climate. Here, we investigated how vegetation structure and functioning may be influenced by predicted increases in annual temperatures and atmospheric CO2

  6. Communities under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

  7. Climate Change Education: Preparing Future and Current Business Leaders--A Workshop Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storksdieck, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Climate change poses challenges as well as opportunities for businesses and, broadly speaking for the entire economy. Businesses will be challenged to provide services or products with less harmful influence on the climate; respond to a changing policy, regulatory, and market environment; and provide new services and products to help address the…

  8. Observational Quantification of Climatic and Human Influences on Vegetation Greening in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenjian Hua

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This study attempts to quantify the relative contributions of vegetation greening in China due to climatic and human influences from multiple observational datasets. Satellite measured vegetation greenness, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, and relevant climate, land cover, and socioeconomic data since 1982 are analyzed using a multiple linear regression (MLR method. A statistically significant positive trend of average growing-season (April–October NDVI is found over more than 34% of the vegetated areas, mainly in North China, while significant decreases in NDVI are only seen in less than 5% of the areas. The relationships between vegetation and climate (temperature, precipitation, and radiation vary by geographical location and vegetation type. We estimate the NDVI changes in association with the non-climatic effects by removing the climatic effects from the original NDVI time series using the MLR analysis. Our results indicate that land use change is the dominant factor driving the long-term changes in vegetation greenness. The significant greening in North China is due to the increase in crops, grasslands, and forests. The socioeconomic datasets provide consistent and supportive results for the non-climatic effects at the provincial level that afforestation and reduced fire events generally have a major contribution. This study provides a basis for quantifying the non-climatic effects due to possible human influences on the vegetation greening in China.

  9. Climate change research in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dawson, K.

    1994-01-01

    The current consensus on climatic change in Canada is briefly summarized, noting the results of modelling of the effects of a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 , the nonuniformity of climate change across the country, the uncertainties in local responses to change, and the general agreement that 2-4 degrees of warming will occur for each doubling of CO 2 . Canadian government response includes programs aimed at reducing the uncertainties in the scientific understanding of climate change and in the socio-economic response to such change. Canadian climate change programs include participation in large-scale experiments on such topics as heat transport in the ocean, and sources and sinks of greenhouse gases; development of next-generation climate models; studying the social and economic effects of climate change in the Great Lakes Basin and Mackenzie River Basin; investigation of paleoclimates; and analysis of climate data for long-term trends

  10. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2013-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  11. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2014-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  12. Climate Change in China : Exploring Informants' Perceptions of Climate Change through a Qualitative Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Lipin, Tan

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is not only a natural phenomenon, but also a global social issue. Many studies try to explore the mechanisms behind climate change and the consequences of climate change, and provide information for developing the measures to mitigate or adapt to it. For example, the IPCC reviews and assesses climate-change-related scientific information produced worldwide, thus aiming to support decision-making from a scientific perspective. However, though various international and regional c...

  13. The social construct of climate and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stehr, N.

    1994-01-01

    Different time scales of climate change and their differential perception in society are discussed. A historical examination of natural climate changes during the past millennium suggests that short-term changes, especially crucial changes, trigger a significant response in and by society. Short-term changes correspond to the 'time horizon of everyday life', that is, to a time scale from days and weeks to a few years. The anticipated anthropogenic climate changes, however, are expected to occur on a longer time scale. They require a response by society not on the basis of primary experience but on the basis of scientifically constructed scenarios and ways in which such information is represented in the modern media for example. Socio-economic impact research relies on concepts that are based on the premise of perfectly informed actors for the development of optimal adaptation strategies. In contrast to such a conception, we develop the concept of a 'social construct of climate' as decisive for the public perception of scientific knowledge about climate and for public policy on climate change. The concept is illustrated using a number of examples. (orig.)

  14. The neurobiology of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Sean

    2018-01-06

    Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.

  15. The neurobiology of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Sean

    2018-02-01

    Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.

  16. Implementing climate change mitigation in health services: the importance of context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desmond, Sharon

    2016-10-01

    Academic interest in strategies to reduce the impact of health services on climate change is quickening. Research has largely focused on local innovations with little consideration of the contextual and systemic elements that influence sustainable development across health systems. A realistic framework specifically to guide decision-making by health care providers is still needed. To address this deficit, the literature is explored in relation to health services and climate change mitigation strategies, and the contextual factors that influence efforts to mitigate climate effects in health service delivery environments are highlighted. A conceptual framework is proposed that offers a model for the pursuit of sustainable development practice in health services. A set of propositions is advanced to provide a systems approach to assist decision-making by decoding the challenges faced in implementing sustainable health services. This has important implications for health care providers, funders and legislators since the financial, policy and regulatory environment of health care, along with its leadership and models of care generally conflict with carbon literacy and climate change mitigation strategies. © The Author(s) 2016.

  17. American archives and climate change: Risks and adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Mazurczyk

    Full Text Available Climate change directly affects the future security of cultural resources. Cultural heritage and in particular, archives, are increasingly at risk of degradation due to climate change threats and triggers. This study evaluated present and future consequences of water-related climate change impacts using a mapping methodology to assess exposure of American archives to incompatible weather extremes. Susceptibility to climate change threats like sea level rise, storm surge, surface water flooding, and humidity, all influenced by a combination of temperature rise and increased precipitation, at a worst-case scenario were assessed for 1232 archival repositories. Results indicate that approximately 98.8% of archives are likely to be affected by at least one climate risk factor, though on average, most archives are at low risk of exposure (90% when risk factors are combined. Future storm surge plus sea level rise was likely to impact 17.7% of archival repositories with 22.1% affected by only storm surge and 4.3% affected by only sea level rise (1.8-m scenario. Fewer archives were likely to be susceptible to surface water flooding (2.4%. More than 90% of archives were estimated to have a temperature change greater than ±1 °C, with 7.5% of sites likely to change by ±10 °C, and 69.5% of archives were likely to receive at least 152 mm more rainfall by 2100 over current annual averages. In terms of sustainability, developing appropriate socio-economic planning schemes that integrate cumulative exposure of archives to future climate patterns is critically important for safeguarding society and its heritage. The outcomes from the risk assessment in this study aid in the decision-making process by promoting strategic adaptation protocols and providing administrators a way to prioritize archival management goals based on the expected severity of future climate change impacts. Keywords: Archives, Climate change, Sea level rise, Storm surge, Cultural

  18. Livelihood trends in Response to Climate Change in Forest Fringe ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    One of the forest fringe communities in Ghana where the rural livelihoods of the people have been compromised due to deforestation and climate change is the Offin basin. The removal of forests impacts on local climate, water availability, and livelihoods due to influence of forests on precipitation and water balance. Fluxes ...

  19. Trees and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Dettenmaier, Megan; Kuhns, Michael; Unger, Bethany; McAvoy, Darren

    2017-01-01

    This fact sheet describes the complex relationship between forests and climate change based on current research. It explains ways that trees can mitigate some of the risks associated with climate change. It details the impacts that forests are having on the changing climate and discuss specific ways that trees can be used to reduce or counter carbon emissions directly and indirectly.

  20. Climate change impacts on forest fires: the stakeholders' perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannakopoulos, C.; Roussos, A.; Karali, A.; Hatzaki, M.; Xanthopoulos, G.; Chatzinikos, E.; Fyllas, N.; Georgiades, N.; Karetsos, G.; Maheras, G.; Nikolaou, I.; Proutsos, N.; Sbarounis, T.; Tsaggari, K.; Tzamtzis, I.; Goodess, C.

    2012-04-01

    In this work, we present a synthesis of the presentations and discussions which arose during a workshop on 'Impacts of climate change on forest fires' held in September 2011 at the National Observatory of Athens, Greece in the framework of EU project CLIMRUN. At first, a general presentation about climate change and extremes in the Greek territory provided the necessary background to the audience and highlighted the need for data and information exchange between scientists and stakeholders through climate services within CLIMRUN. Discussions and presentations that followed linked climate with forest science through the use of a meteorological index for fire risk and future projections of fire danger using regional climate models. The current situation on Greek forests was also presented, as well as future steps that should be taken to ameliorate the situation under a climate change world. A time series analysis of changes in forest fires using available historical data on forest ecosystems in Greece was given in this session. This led to the topic of forest fire risk assessment and fire prevention, stating all actions towards sustainable management of forests and effective mechanisms to control fires under climate change. Options for a smooth adaptation of forests to climate change were discussed together with the lessons learned on practical level on prevention, repression and rehabilitation of forest fires. In between there were useful interventions on sustainable hunting and biodiversity protection and on climate change impacts on forest ecosystems dynamics. The importance of developing an educational program for primary/secondary school students on forest fire management was also highlighted. The perspective of forest stakeholders on climate change and how this change can affect their current or future activities was addressed through a questionnaire they were asked to complete. Results showed that the majority of the participants consider climate variability

  1. Southern voices on climate policy choices: Analysis of and lessons learned from civil society advocacy on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reid, Hannah; Ampomah, Gifty; Prera, Maria Isabel Olazabal; Rabbani, Golam; Zvigadza, Shepard

    2012-05-15

    This report provides an analysis of the tools and tactics advocacy groups use to influence policy responses to climate change at international, regional, national and sub-national levels. More than 20 climate networks and their member organisations have contributed to the report with their experiences of advocacy on climate change, including over 70 case studies from a wide range of countries - including many of the poorest - in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Pacific. These advocacy activities primarily target national governments, but also international and regional processes, donors and the private sector. Analyses and case studies show how civil society plays key roles in pushing for new laws, programmes, policies or strategies on climate change, in holding governments to account on their commitments; in identifying the lack of joined-up government responses to climate change; and in ensuring that national policy making does not forget the poor and vulnerable. The report is the first joint product of the Southern Voices Capacity Building Programme, or for short: Southern Voices on Climate Change.

  2. Climate change and environmental concentrations of POPs: A review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nadal, Martí; Marquès, Montse; Mari, Montse; Domingo, José L.

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, the climate change impact on the concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) has become a topic of notable concern. Changes in environmental conditions such as the increase of the average temperature, or the UV-B radiation, are likely to influence the fate and behavior of POPs, ultimately affecting human exposure. The state of the art of the impact of climate change on environmental concentrations of POPs, as well as on human health risks, is here reviewed. Research gaps are also identified, while future studies are suggested. Climate change and POPs are a hot issue, for which wide attention should be paid not only by scientists, but also and mainly by policy makers. Most studies reported in the scientific literature are focused on legacy POPs, mainly polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and pesticides. However, the number of investigations aimed at estimating the impact of climate change on the environmental levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is scarce, despite of the fact that exposure to PAHs and photodegradation byproducts may result in adverse health effects. Furthermore, no data on emerging POPs are currently available in the scientific literature. In consequence, an intensification of studies to identify and mitigate the indirect effects of the climate change on POP fate is needed to minimize the human health impact. Furthermore, being this a global problem, interactions between climate change and POPs must be addressed from an international perspective.

  3. Climate change and environmental concentrations of POPs: A review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nadal, Martí, E-mail: marti.nadal@urv.cat [Laboratory of Toxicology and Environmental Health, School of Medicine, IISPV, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Sant Llorenç 21, 43201 Reus, Catalonia (Spain); Marquès, Montse; Mari, Montse [Laboratory of Toxicology and Environmental Health, School of Medicine, IISPV, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Sant Llorenç 21, 43201 Reus, Catalonia (Spain); Environmental Engineering Laboratory, Departament d’Enginyeria Quimica, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Avinguda Països Catalans 26, 43007 Tarragona, Catalonia (Spain); Domingo, José L. [Laboratory of Toxicology and Environmental Health, School of Medicine, IISPV, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Sant Llorenç 21, 43201 Reus, Catalonia (Spain)

    2015-11-15

    In recent years, the climate change impact on the concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) has become a topic of notable concern. Changes in environmental conditions such as the increase of the average temperature, or the UV-B radiation, are likely to influence the fate and behavior of POPs, ultimately affecting human exposure. The state of the art of the impact of climate change on environmental concentrations of POPs, as well as on human health risks, is here reviewed. Research gaps are also identified, while future studies are suggested. Climate change and POPs are a hot issue, for which wide attention should be paid not only by scientists, but also and mainly by policy makers. Most studies reported in the scientific literature are focused on legacy POPs, mainly polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and pesticides. However, the number of investigations aimed at estimating the impact of climate change on the environmental levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is scarce, despite of the fact that exposure to PAHs and photodegradation byproducts may result in adverse health effects. Furthermore, no data on emerging POPs are currently available in the scientific literature. In consequence, an intensification of studies to identify and mitigate the indirect effects of the climate change on POP fate is needed to minimize the human health impact. Furthermore, being this a global problem, interactions between climate change and POPs must be addressed from an international perspective.

  4. Understanding the influence of climate change on the embodied energy of water supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo, Weiwei; Wang, Haiying; Jacobs, Jennifer M

    2016-05-15

    The current study aims to advance understandings on how and to what degree climate change will affect the life cycle chemical and energy uses of drinking water supply. A dynamic life cycle assessment was performed to quantify historical monthly operational embodied energy of a selected water supply system located in northeast US. Comprehensive multivariate and regression analyses were then performed to understand the statistical correlation among monthly life cycle energy consumptions, three water quality indicators (UV254, pH, and water temperature), and five climate indicators (monthly mean temperature, monthly mean maximum/minimum temperatures, total precipitation, and total snow fall). Thirdly, a calculation was performed to understand how volumetric and total life cycle energy consumptions will change under two selected IPCC emission scenarios (A2 and B1). It was found that volumetric life cycle energy consumptions are highest in winter months mainly due to the higher uses of natural gas in the case study system, but total monthly life cycle energy consumptions peak in both July and January because of the increasing water demand in summer months. Most of the variations in chemical and energy uses can be interpreted by water quality and climate variations except for the use of soda ash. It was also found that climate change might lead to an average decrease of 3-6% in the volumetric energy use of the case study system by the end of the century. This result combined with conclusions reached by previous climate versus water supply studies indicates that effects of climate change on drinking water supply might be highly dependent on the geographical location and treatment process of individual water supply systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Climate Change Action Fund: public education and outreach. Change: think climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-05-01

    This illustrated booklet provides a glimpse of the many creative approaches being adopted by educators, community groups, industry associations and governments at all levels to inform Canadians about the causes and effects of climate change. It also provides suggestions about how each individual person can contribute to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through residential energy efficiency, by participating in ride-share programs, by planting trees and a myriad of other community action projects and public awareness campaigns. The booklet describes educational resources and training available to teachers, science presentations, climate change workshops, public awareness initiatives, community action on climate change, and sector-specific actions underway in the field of transportation and in improving energy efficiency in residential and large buildings. Descriptive summaries of the activities of organizations involved in climate change advocacy and promotion, and a list of contacts for individual projects also form part of the volume

  6. Changing Climates @ Colorado State: 100 (Multidisciplinary) Views of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, S.; Calderazzo, J.; Changing Climates, Cmmap Education; Diversity Team

    2011-12-01

    We would like to talk about a multidisciplinary education and outreach program we co-direct at Colorado State University, with support from an NSF-funded STC, CMMAP, the Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes. We are working to raise public literacy about climate change by providing information that is high quality, up to date, thoroughly multidisciplinary, and easy for non-specialists to understand. Our primary audiences are college-level students, their teachers, and the general public. Our motto is Climate Change is Everybody's Business. To encourage and help our faculty infuse climate-change content into their courses, we have organized some 115 talks given by as many different speakers-speakers drawn from 28 academic departments, all 8 colleges at CSU, and numerous other entities from campus, the community, and farther afield. We began with a faculty-teaching-faculty series and then broadened our attentions to the whole campus and surrounding community. Some talks have been for narrowly focused audiences such as extension agents who work on energy, but most are for more eclectic groups of students, staff, faculty, and citizens. We count heads at most events, and our current total is roughly 6,000. We have created a website (http://changingclimates.colostate.edu) that includes videotapes of many of these talks, short videos we have created, and annotated sources that we judge to be accurate, interesting, clearly written, and aimed at non-specialists, including books, articles and essays, websites, and a few items specifically for college teachers (such as syllabi). Pages of the website focus on such topics as how the climate works / how it changes; what's happening / what might happen; natural ecosystems; agriculture; impacts on people; responses from ethics, art, literature; communication; daily life; policy; energy; and-pulling all the pieces together-the big picture. We have begun working on a new series of very short videos that can be

  7. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth

  8. Impacts and adaptation of European crop production systems to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olesen, Jørgen E; Trnka, M; Kersebaum, K C

    2011-01-01

    The studies on anthropogenic climate change performed in the last decade over Europe show consistent projections of increases in temperature and different patterns of precipitation with widespread increases in northern Europe and decreases over parts of southern and eastern Europe. In many...... countries and in recent years there is a tendency towards cereal grain yield stagnation and increased yield variability. Some of these trends may have been influenced by the recent climatic changes over Europe. A set of qualitative and quantitative questionnaires on perceived risks and foreseen impacts...... of climate and climate change on agriculture in Europe was distributed to agro-climatic and agronomy experts in 26 countries. Europe was divided into 13 Environmental Zones (EZ). In total, we had 50 individual responses for specific EZ. The questionnaires provided both country and EZ specific information...

  9. Countermeasures of adaptation to climate change: establishment and application for implementation matrix

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jiang Dongmei; Liu Bin

    2009-01-01

    In the conceptual framework of adaptation policy assessment to climate change,adaptation measures can be categorized as two groupsL:facilitation and implementation.Facilitation measures refers to activities that enhance adaptive capacity,while implementation refers to activities that actually avoid adverse climate impacts on a system by reducing its exposure or sensitivity to climatic hazards,or by moderating relevant non-climatic factors.This paper aims to establish a matrix of implementation measures of adaptation to climate change,through four different ways how adaptation can influence the relevant elements of climate change:reducing the exposure,reducing the sensitivity,alleviating the adverse impacts and reducing the negative non-climatic factors,and then further discuss the particular implementation measures of adaptation to climate change,through application studies on the selected sub-systems,intend to organize the disordered implementation measures in existent,and put forward some new mea sures under the guidance of this matrix,which could enrich and promote the system and content of implementation measures of adaptation.

  10. Air quality and climate change co-benefits in Durban

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Thambiran, Tirusha

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between air quality and climate change provides a scientific basis for developing integrative policies. Emission control measures implemented can have varying counteracting influences, simultaneously affecting air quality pollutants...

  11. Climate change and water availability for vulnerable agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalezios, Nicolas; Tarquis, Ana Maria

    2017-04-01

    Climatic projections for the Mediterranean basin indicate that the area will suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change. The key climatic trends identified for the Mediterranean region are continuous temperature increase, further drying with precipitation decrease and the accentuation of climate extremes, such as droughts, heat waves and/or forest fires, which are expected to have a profound effect on agriculture. Indeed, the impact of climate variability on agricultural production is important at local, regional, national, as well as global scales. Agriculture of any kind is strongly influenced by the availability of water. Climate change will modify rainfall, evaporation, runoff, and soil moisture storage patterns. Changes in total seasonal precipitation or in its pattern of variability are both important. Similarly, with higher temperatures, the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere and evaporation into the atmosphere increase, and this favors increased climate variability, with more intense precipitation and more droughts. As a result, crop yields are affected by variations in climatic factors, such as air temperature and precipitation, and the frequency and severity of the above mentioned extreme events. The aim of this work is to briefly present the main effects of climate change and variability on water resources with respect to water availability for vulnerable agriculture, namely in the Mediterranean region. Results of undertaken studies in Greece on precipitation patterns and drought assessment using historical data records are presented. Based on precipitation frequency analysis, evidence of precipitation reductions is shown. Drought is assessed through an agricultural drought index, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI), in Thessaly, a drought-prone region in central Greece. The results justify the importance of water availability for vulnerable agriculture and the need for drought monitoring in the Mediterranean basin as part of

  12. Defining response capacity to enhance climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tompkins, Emma L.; Neil Adger, W.

    2005-01-01

    Climate change adaptation and mitigation decisions made by governments are usually taken in different policy domains. At the individual level however, adaptation and mitigation activities are undertaken together as part of the management of risk and resources. We propose that a useful starting point to develop a national climate policy is to understand what societal response might mean in practice. First we frame the set of responses at the national policy level as a trade off between investment in the development and diffusion of new technology, and investment in encouraging and enabling society to change its behaviour and or adopt the new technology. We argue that these are the pertinent trade-offs, rather than those usually posited between climate change mitigation and adaptation. The preference for a policy response that focuses more on technological innovation rather than one that focuses on changing social behaviour will be influenced by the capacity of different societies to change their greenhouse gas emissions; by perceived vulnerability to climate impacts; and by capacity to modify social behaviour and physical environment. Starting with this complete vision of response options should enable policy makers to re-evaluate the risk environment and the set of response options available to them. From here, policy makers should consider who is responsible for making climate response decisions and when actions should be taken. Institutional arrangements dictate social and political acceptability of different policies, they structure worldviews, and they determine the provision of resources for investment in technological innovation and social change. The importance of focussing on the timing of the response is emphasised to maximise the potential for adjustments through social learning and institutional change at different policy scales. We argue that the ability to respond to climate change is both enabled and constrained by social and technological conditions

  13. Enhancing and expanding intersectional research for climate change adaptation in agrarian settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson-Hall, Mary; Carr, Edward R; Pascual, Unai

    2016-12-01

    Most current approaches focused on vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation to climate change frame gender and its influence in a manner out-of-step with contemporary academic and international development research. The tendency to rely on analyses of the sex-disaggregated gender categories of 'men' and 'women' as sole or principal divisions explaining the abilities of different people within a group to adapt to climate change, illustrates this problem. This framing of gender persists in spite of established bodies of knowledge that show how roles and responsibilities that influence a person´s ability to deal with climate-induced and other stressors emerge at the intersection of diverse identity categories, including but not limited to gender, age, seniority, ethnicity, marital status, and livelihoods. Here, we provide a review of relevant literature on this topic and argue that approaching vulnerability to climate change through intersectional understandings of identity can help improve adaptation programming, project design, implementation, and outcomes.

  14. Changes in the Perceived Risk of Climate Change: Evidence from Sudden Climatic Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

    2009-12-01

    In the course of the past two decades the threat of anthropogenic climate change has moved from a scientific concern of relative obscurity to become one of the largest environmental and public goods problems in history. During this period public understanding of the risk of climate change has shifted from negligible to quite large. In this paper I propose a means of quantifying this change by examining how sudden events supporting the theory of anthropogenic climate change have affected carbon intensive companies' stock prices. Using CAPM event study methodology for companies in several carbon-intensive industries, I find strong evidence that markets have been reacting to changes in the scientific evidence for climate change for some time. Specifically, the change in magnitude of response over time seems to indicate that investors believed climate change was a potentially serious risk to corporate profits as early as the mid 1990s. Moreover, market reaction dependence on event type indicates that investors are differentiating between different advances in the scientific knowledge. Announcements by NASA GISS that the previous year was a “record hot year” for the globe are associated with negative excess returns, while news of ice shelf collapses are associated with strong positive excess returns. These results imply that investors are aware of how different aspects of climate change will affect carbon intensive companies, specifically in terms of the link between warming in general and polar ice cover. This implies that policy choices based on observable public opinion have lagged actual private concern over climate change's potential threat.

  15. Chemistry and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernier, Jean-Claude; Brasseur, Guy; Brechet, Yves; Candel, Sebastien; Cazenave, Anny; Courtillot, Vincent; Fontecave, Marc; Garnier, Emmanuel; Goebel, Philippe; Legrand, Jack; Legrand, Michel; Le Treut, Herve; Mauberger, Pascal; Dinh-Audouin, Minh-Thu; Olivier, Daniele; Rigny, Paul; Bigot, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    In its first part, this collective publication addresses the decennial and centuries-old variations of climate: perspectives and implications of climate change for the 21. century, questions remaining about the understanding of climate change from its sources to its modelling, extreme climate variations and societies during the last millennium. The contributions of the second part outline how chemistry is a tool to study climate change: ice chemistry as an archive of our past environment, observations and predictions on sea level rise, relationship between atmosphere chemistry and climate. The third set of contributions discusses the transformation of the energy system for a cleaner atmosphere and the management of the climate risk: the chemical processing of CO_2, actions of chemical companies to support the struggle against climate change, relationship between barrel price and renewable energies, relationship between grid complexity and green energy. The last part outlines the role chemistry can have to be able to do without fossil fuels: chemistry in front of challenges of transformation of the energy system, the use of micro-algae, the use of hydrogen as a vector of energy transition

  16. Climatic changes and uplift patterns - past, present and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjoerck, S.; Svensson, N.O.

    1992-11-01

    Our knowledge about the Pleistocene (= last 2.5 million years) climatic changes and their global environmental effects on the Earth system, e.g. the glacial-interglacial cycles, the sea level changes, and the significant crustal movements in glaciated regions, has increased greatly during the last decades. This report outlines the historical background and the present state-of-the-arts on these matters. Because the driving mechanisms and feed-back effects behind these changes have been more and more discussed in earth-science literature, analysed, and probably also better and better understood, it has become possible to present theoretical models for future climates (not including mans influence on the earth system). The report presents and discusses one such climate model (short of predicting mans future behaviour and its consequent effect on climate) and its likely implications on future climatic and glacial conditions, and bedrock movements, with focus on the Stockholm region. Possibilities for quaternary geologists to establish and map post glacial fault zones, related to irregular bedrock movements, are also briefly outlined in the report. (222 refs.)

  17. Climate change refugia as a tool for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change so as to increase persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources, are considered as potential adaptation options in the face of anthropogenic climate change. In a collaboration ...

  18. Solar variability and climate change: An historical perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldman, Theodore S.

    There is nothing new about the debate over the Sun's influence on terrestrial climate.As early as the late 18th century, widespread concern for the deterioration of the Earth's climate led to speculation about the Sun's role in climate change [Feldman, 1993; Fleming, 1990]. Drawing analogies with variations in the brightness of stars, the British astronomer William Herschel suggested that greater sunspot activity would result in warmer terrestrial climates. Herschel supported his hypothesis by referring to price series for wheat published in Adam Smiths Wealth of Nations [Hufbauer, 1991]. Later, the eminent American physicist Joseph Henry demonstrated by thermopile measurements that, contrary to Herschel's assumption, sunspots were cooler than the unblemished portions of the solar disk.

  19. Approaches to predicting potential impacts of climate change on forest disease: An example with Armillaria root disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ned B. Klopfenstein; Mee-Sook Kim; John W. Hanna; Bryce A. Richardson; John E. Lundquist

    2011-01-01

    Climate change will likely have dramatic impacts on forest health because many forest trees could become maladapted to climate. Furthermore, climate change will have additional impacts on forest health through changes in the distribution and severity of forest disease. Methods are needed to predict the influence of climate change on forest disease so that appropriate...

  20. Climate change. Climate in Medieval time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Raymond S; Hughes, Malcolm K; Diaz, Henry F

    2003-10-17

    Many papers have referred to a "Medieval Warm Period." But how well defined is climate in this period, and was it as warm as or warmer than it is today? In their Perspective, Bradley et al. review the evidence and conclude that although the High Medieval (1100 to 1200 A.D.) was warmer than subsequent centuries, it was not warmer than the late 20th century. Moreover, the warmest Medieval temperatures were not synchronous around the globe. Large changes in precipitation patterns are a particular characteristic of "High Medieval" time. The underlying mechanisms for such changes must be elucidated further to inform the ongoing debate on natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change.

  1. Papers of the CWRA climate change symposium : understanding climate change impacts on Manitoba's water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This symposium provided an opportunity for discussions on climate change issues with particular reference to the impacts on Manitoba's water resources. The presentations addressed issues of importance to governments, scientists, academics, managers, consultants and the general public. Topics of discussion ranged from climate change impacts on water quality, wetlands, hydropower, fisheries and drought, to adaptation to climate change. Recent advances in global and regional climate modelling were highlighted along with paleo-environmental indicators of climate change. The objective was to provide a better understanding of the science of climate change. The conference featured 16 presentations of which 1 was indexed separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs

  2. Assessing climate change impacts on soil salinity development with proximal and satellite sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changes in climate patterns have dramatically influenced some agricultural areas. Examples include the historic 5-year drought in California’s San Joaquin Valley (SJV) and the 20-year above average annual rainfall in the Red River Valley (RRV) of the Midwestern USA. Climate change may have impacted ...

  3. Future fire probability modeling with climate change data and physical chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard P. Guyette; Frank R. Thompson; Jodi Whittier; Michael C. Stambaugh; Daniel C. Dey

    2014-01-01

    Climate has a primary influence on the occurrence and rate of combustion in ecosystems with carbon-based fuels such as forests and grasslands. Society will be confronted with the effects of climate change on fire in future forests. There are, however, few quantitative appraisals of how climate will affect wildland fire in the United States. We demonstrated a method for...

  4. Gray wolves as climate change buffers in Yellowstone.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher C Wilmers

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the mechanisms by which climate and predation patterns by top predators co-vary to affect community structure accrues added importance as humans exert growing influence over both climate and regional predator assemblages. In Yellowstone National Park, winter conditions and reintroduced gray wolves (Canis lupus together determine the availability of winter carrion on which numerous scavenger species depend for survival and reproduction. As climate changes in Yellowstone, therefore, scavenger species may experience a dramatic reshuffling of food resources. As such, we analyzed 55 y of weather data from Yellowstone in order to determine trends in winter conditions. We found that winters are getting shorter, as measured by the number of days with snow on the ground, due to decreased snowfall and increased number of days with temperatures above freezing. To investigate synergistic effects of human and climatic alterations of species interactions, we used an empirically derived model to show that in the absence of wolves, early snow thaw leads to a substantial reduction in late-winter carrion, causing potential food bottlenecks for scavengers. In addition, by narrowing the window of time over which carrion is available and thereby creating a resource pulse, climate change likely favors scavengers that can quickly track food sources over great distances. Wolves, however, largely mitigate late-winter reduction in carrion due to earlier snow thaws. By buffering the effects of climate change on carrion availability, wolves allow scavengers to adapt to a changing environment over a longer time scale more commensurate with natural processes. This study illustrates the importance of restoring and maintaining intact food chains in the face of large-scale environmental perturbations such as climate change.

  5. Gray wolves as climate change buffers in Yellowstone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilmers, Christopher C; Getz, Wayne M

    2005-04-01

    Understanding the mechanisms by which climate and predation patterns by top predators co-vary to affect community structure accrues added importance as humans exert growing influence over both climate and regional predator assemblages. In Yellowstone National Park, winter conditions and reintroduced gray wolves (Canis lupus) together determine the availability of winter carrion on which numerous scavenger species depend for survival and reproduction. As climate changes in Yellowstone, therefore, scavenger species may experience a dramatic reshuffling of food resources. As such, we analyzed 55 y of weather data from Yellowstone in order to determine trends in winter conditions. We found that winters are getting shorter, as measured by the number of days with snow on the ground, due to decreased snowfall and increased number of days with temperatures above freezing. To investigate synergistic effects of human and climatic alterations of species interactions, we used an empirically derived model to show that in the absence of wolves, early snow thaw leads to a substantial reduction in late-winter carrion, causing potential food bottlenecks for scavengers. In addition, by narrowing the window of time over which carrion is available and thereby creating a resource pulse, climate change likely favors scavengers that can quickly track food sources over great distances. Wolves, however, largely mitigate late-winter reduction in carrion due to earlier snow thaws. By buffering the effects of climate change on carrion availability, wolves allow scavengers to adapt to a changing environment over a longer time scale more commensurate with natural processes. This study illustrates the importance of restoring and maintaining intact food chains in the face of large-scale environmental perturbations such as climate change.

  6. Gray Wolves as Climate Change Buffers in Yellowstone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilmers Christopher C

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the mechanisms by which climate and predation patterns by top predators co-vary to affect community structure accrues added importance as humans exert growing influence over both climate and regional predator assemblages. In Yellowstone National Park, winter conditions and reintroduced gray wolves (Canis lupus together determine the availability of winter carrion on which numerous scavenger species depend for survival and reproduction. As climate changes in Yellowstone, therefore, scavenger species may experience a dramatic reshuffling of food resources. As such, we analyzed 55 y of weather data from Yellowstone in order to determine trends in winter conditions. We found that winters are getting shorter, as measured by the number of days with snow on the ground, due to decreased snowfall and increased number of days with temperatures above freezing. To investigate synergistic effects of human and climatic alterations of species interactions, we used an empirically derived model to show that in the absence of wolves, early snow thaw leads to a substantial reduction in late-winter carrion, causing potential food bottlenecks for scavengers. In addition, by narrowing the window of time over which carrion is available and thereby creating a resource pulse, climate change likely favors scavengers that can quickly track food sources over great distances. Wolves, however, largely mitigate late-winter reduction in carrion due to earlier snow thaws. By buffering the effects of climate change on carrion availability, wolves allow scavengers to adapt to a changing environment over a longer time scale more commensurate with natural processes. This study illustrates the importance of restoring and maintaining intact food chains in the face of large-scale environmental perturbations such as climate change.

  7. Climatic influences on the breeding biology of the agile frog ( Rana dalmatina)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Combes, Magali; Pinaud, David; Barbraud, Christophe; Trotignon, Jacques; Brischoux, François

    2018-02-01

    Severe population declines of amphibians have been shown to be attributed to climate change. Nevertheless, the various mechanisms through which climate can influence population dynamics of amphibians remain to be assessed, notably to disentangle the relative synergetic or antagonistic influences of temperature and precipitations on specific life history stages. We investigated the impact of rainfall and temperature on the egg-clutch abundance in a population of agile frog ( Rana dalmatina) during 29 years (1987-2016) on 14 breeding sites located in Brenne Natural Park, France. Specifically, we examined the influence of environmental conditions occurring during five temporal windows of the year cycle corresponding to specific life history stages. Overall, our results suggest that the year-to-year fluctuations of egg-clutch abundances in Brenne Natural Park were partly dependent on local climatic conditions (rainfall and temperature). Climate seemed to influence breeding frogs during the autumn-winter period preceding reproduction. Spring and summer conditions did not influence reproduction. Additionally, we failed to detect effects of climatic conditions on newly metamorphosed individuals. Other factors such as density dependence and inter-specific interactions with introduced predators are likely to play a significant role in reproduction dynamics of the studied frog populations.

  8. Climate change and human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warren, John A; Berner, James E; Curtis, Tine

    2005-01-01

    In northern regions, climate change can include changes in precipitation magnitude and frequency, reductions in sea ice extent and thickness, and climate warming and cooling. These changes can increase the frequency and severity of storms, flooding, or erosion; other changes may include drought...... or degradation of permafrost. Climate change can result in damage to sanitation infrastructure resulting in the spread of disease or threatening a community's ability to maintain its economy, geographic location and cultural tradition, leading to mental stress. Through monitoring of some basic indicators...... communities can begin to develop a response to climate change. With this information, planners, engineers, health care professionals and governments can begin to develop approaches to address the challenges related to climate change....

  9. A New Time-varying Concept of Risk in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarhadi, Ali; Ausín, María Concepción; Wiper, Michael P.

    2016-10-01

    In a changing climate arising from anthropogenic global warming, the nature of extreme climatic events is changing over time. Existing analytical stationary-based risk methods, however, assume multi-dimensional extreme climate phenomena will not significantly vary over time. To strengthen the reliability of infrastructure designs and the management of water systems in the changing environment, multidimensional stationary risk studies should be replaced with a new adaptive perspective. The results of a comparison indicate that current multi-dimensional stationary risk frameworks are no longer applicable to projecting the changing behaviour of multi-dimensional extreme climate processes. Using static stationary-based multivariate risk methods may lead to undesirable consequences in designing water system infrastructures. The static stationary concept should be replaced with a flexible multi-dimensional time-varying risk framework. The present study introduces a new multi-dimensional time-varying risk concept to be incorporated in updating infrastructure design strategies under changing environments arising from human-induced climate change. The proposed generalized time-varying risk concept can be applied for all stochastic multi-dimensional systems that are under the influence of changing environments.

  10. A New Time-varying Concept of Risk in a Changing Climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarhadi, Ali; Ausín, María Concepción; Wiper, Michael P

    2016-10-20

    In a changing climate arising from anthropogenic global warming, the nature of extreme climatic events is changing over time. Existing analytical stationary-based risk methods, however, assume multi-dimensional extreme climate phenomena will not significantly vary over time. To strengthen the reliability of infrastructure designs and the management of water systems in the changing environment, multidimensional stationary risk studies should be replaced with a new adaptive perspective. The results of a comparison indicate that current multi-dimensional stationary risk frameworks are no longer applicable to projecting the changing behaviour of multi-dimensional extreme climate processes. Using static stationary-based multivariate risk methods may lead to undesirable consequences in designing water system infrastructures. The static stationary concept should be replaced with a flexible multi-dimensional time-varying risk framework. The present study introduces a new multi-dimensional time-varying risk concept to be incorporated in updating infrastructure design strategies under changing environments arising from human-induced climate change. The proposed generalized time-varying risk concept can be applied for all stochastic multi-dimensional systems that are under the influence of changing environments.

  11. Climate Change: Science and Policy in the Arctic Climate Change: Science and Policy in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigras, S. C.

    2009-12-01

    It is an accepted fact that the Earth’s climate is warming. Recent research has demonstrated the direct links between the Arctic regions and the rest of the planet. We have become more aware that these regions are feeling the effects of global climate change more intensely than anywhere else on Earth -- and that they are fast becoming the new frontiers for resources and political disputes. This paper examines some of the potential climate change impacts in the Arctic and how the science of climate change can be used to develop policies that will help mitigate some of these impacts. Despite the growing body of research we do not yet completely understand the potential consequences of climate change in the Arctic. Climate models predict significant changes and impacts on the northern physical environment and renewable resources, and on the communities and societies that depend on them. Policies developed and implemented as a result of the research findings will be designed to help mitigate some of the more serious consequences. Given the importance of cost in making policy decisions, the financial implications of different scenarios will need to be considered. The Arctic Ocean Basin is a complex and diverse environment shared by five Arctic states. Cooperation among the states surrounding the Arctic Ocean is often difficult, as each country has its own political and social agenda. Northerners and indigenous peoples should be engaged and able to influence the direction of northern adaptation policies. Along with climate change, the Arctic environment and Arctic residents face many other challenges, among them safe resource development. Resource development in the Arctic has always been a controversial issue, seen by some as a solution to high unemployment and by others as an unacceptably disruptive and destructive force. Its inherent risks need to be considered: there are needs for adaptation, for management frameworks, for addressing cumulative effects, and for

  12. Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hudecz, Adriána

    The European Union ROADEX Project 1998 – 2012 was a trans-national roads co-operation aimed at developing ways for interactive and innovative management of low traffic volume roads throughout the cold climate regions of the Northern Periphery Area of Europe. Its goals were to facilitate co......-operation and research into the common problems of the Northern Periphery. This report is an output of the ROADEX “Implementing Accessibility” project (2009-2012). It gives a summary of the results of research into adaptation measures to combat climate change effects on low volume roads in the Northern Periphery...... causes changes in other climatic variables such as rainfall, humidity and wind speed that impact on the functioning of infrastructure such road networks. This paper discusses the climate changes predicted by the world’s meteorological organisations and considers how these may impact on the public...

  13. The Co-evolution of Climate Models and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somerville, R. C.

    2010-12-01

    been endorsed by many leading scientific professional societies and academies of science worldwide. These reports are considered as definitive summaries of the state of the science. In 2007, in recognition of its exceptional accomplishments, the IPCC shared the Nobel Peace Prize equally with Al Gore. The present era is characterized not only by the reality and seriousness of human-caused climate change, but also by a young yet powerful science that enables us to understand much about the climate change that has occurred already and that awaits in the future. The development of GCMs is a critical part of the scientific story, and the development of the IPCC is a key factor in connecting the science to the perceptions and priorities of the global public and policymakers. GCMs and the IPCC have co-evolved and strongly influenced one another, as both scientists and the world at large have worked to confront the challenge of climate change.

  14. Rural Nevada and climate change: vulnerability, beliefs, and risk perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safi, Ahmad Saleh; Smith, William James; Liu, Zhnongwei

    2012-06-01

    In this article, we present the results of a study investigating the influence of vulnerability to climate change as a function of physical vulnerability, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity on climate change risk perception. In 2008/2009, we surveyed Nevada ranchers and farmers to assess their climate change-related beliefs, and risk perceptions, political orientations, and socioeconomic characteristics. Ranchers' and farmers' sensitivity to climate change was measured through estimating the proportion of their household income originating from highly scarce water-dependent agriculture to the total income. Adaptive capacity was measured as a combination of the Social Status Index and the Poverty Index. Utilizing water availability and use, and population distribution GIS databases; we assessed water resource vulnerability in Nevada by zip code as an indicator of physical vulnerability to climate change. We performed correlation tests and multiple regression analyses to examine the impact of vulnerability and its three distinct components on risk perception. We find that vulnerability is not a significant determinant of risk perception. Physical vulnerability alone also does not impact risk perception. Both sensitivity and adaptive capacity increase risk perception. While age is not a significant determinant of it, gender plays an important role in shaping risk perception. Yet, general beliefs such as political orientations and climate change-specific beliefs such as believing in the anthropogenic causes of climate change and connecting the locally observed impacts (in this case drought) to climate change are the most prominent determinants of risk perception. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Impacts of Land Cover Changes on Climate over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, L.; Frauenfeld, O. W.

    2014-12-01

    Land cover changes can influence regional climate through modifying the surface energy balance and water fluxes, and can also affect climate at large scales via changes in atmospheric general circulation. With rapid population growth and economic development, China has experienced significant land cover changes, such as deforestation, grassland degradation, and farmland expansion. In this study, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is used to investigate the climate impacts of anthropogenic land cover changes over China. To isolate the climatic effects of land cover change, we focus on the CAM and CLM models, with prescribed climatological sea surface temperature and sea ice cover. Two experiments were performed, one with current vegetation and the other with potential vegetation. Current vegetation conditions were derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite observations, and potential vegetation over China was obtained from Ramankutty and Foley's global potential vegetation dataset. Impacts of land cover changes on surface air temperature and precipitation are assessed based on the difference of the two experiments. Results suggest that land cover changes have a cold-season cooling effect in a large region of China, but a warming effect in summer. These temperature changes can be reconciled with albedo forcing and evapotranspiration. Moreover, impacts on atmospheric circulation and the Asian Monsoon is also discussed.

  16. Yukon Government climate change action plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-02-01

    This Climate Change Action Plan described the measures that are being taken by the Yukon Government to adapt to, understand, and reduce contributions to climate change. The action plan is the result of input received from more than 100 individuals and organizations and provides clear direction for a strategy that will minimize the negative impacts of climate change and provide economic, social and other environmental benefits through climate change mitigation. The Yukon government has already taken many actions that respond to climate change, such as: developing the Yukon Cold Climate Innovation Centre; supporting the Northern Climate Exchange for public education and outreach; funding community recycling depots and other groups that reduce waste generation, promote public awareness and divert solid waste; and working with provincial and territorial counterparts to enhance national building standards. The main objectives of the climate change actions are to enhance knowledge and understanding of climate change; adapt to climate change; reduce greenhouse gas emissions; and lead Yukon action in response to climate change. tabs., figs.

  17. Climate change and nutrition: creating a climate for nutrition security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tirado, M C; Crahay, P; Mahy, L; Zanev, C; Neira, M; Msangi, S; Brown, R; Scaramella, C; Costa Coitinho, D; Müller, A

    2013-12-01

    Climate change further exacerbates the enormous existing burden of undernutrition. It affects food and nutrition security and undermines current efforts to reduce hunger and promote nutrition. Undernutrition in turn undermines climate resilience and the coping strategies of vulnerable populations. The objectives of this paper are to identify and undertake a cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the existing mechanisms, strategies, and policies to address them. A cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the mechanisms and policies to address them was guided by an analytical framework focused on the three 'underlying causes' of undernutrition: 1) household food access, 2) maternal and child care and feeding practices, 3) environmental health and health access. The analytical framework includes the interactions of the three underlying causes of undernutrition with climate change,vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation. Within broad efforts on climate change mitigation and adaptation and climate-resilient development, a combination of nutrition-sensitive adaptation and mitigation measures, climate-resilient and nutrition-sensitive agricultural development, social protection, improved maternal and child care and health, nutrition-sensitive risk reduction and management, community development measures, nutrition-smart investments, increased policy coherence, and institutional and cross-sectoral collaboration are proposed as a means to address the impacts of climate change to food and nutrition security. This paper proposes policy directions to address nutrition in the climate change agenda and recommendations for consideration by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Nutrition and health stakeholders need to be engaged in key climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives, including science-based assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC

  18. Potential Effects of Climate Change on Treeline Position in the Swedish Mountains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Moen

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change may strongly influence species distribution and, thus, the structure and function of ecosystems. This paper describes simulated changes in the position of the upper treeline in the Swedish mountains in response to predicted climate change. Data on predicted summer temperature changes, the current position of the treeline, and a digital elevation model were used to predict the position of the treeline over a 100-year timeframe. The results show the treeline advancing upward by 233-667 m, depending on the climate scenario used and location within the mountain chain. Such changes hypothetically caused a 75-85% reduction in treeless alpine heaths, with 60-93% of the remaining areas being scree slopes and boulder fields. For this change to occur, the migration rate of the trees would be in the order of 23-221 m yr-1, which is well within published migration rates for wind-dispersed deciduous trees. The remaining alpine areas would be strongly fragmented. These drastic changes would influence all aspects of mountain ecosystems, including biodiversity conservation and human land-use patterns.

  19. An overview of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masson-Delmotte, V.; Paillard, D.

    2004-01-01

    We describe briefly here the main mechanisms and time scales involved in natural and anthropogenic climate variability, based on quantitative paleo-climatic reconstructions from natural archives and climate model simulations: the large glacial-interglacial cycles of the last million years (the Quaternary), lasting typically a hundred thousand years, triggered by changes in the solar radiation received by the Earth due to its position around the Sun; the century-long climatic changes occurring during last glacial period and triggered by recurrent iceberg discharges of the large northern hemisphere ice caps, massive freshwater flux to the north Atlantic, and changes in the ocean heat transport. We show the strong coupling between past climatic changes and global biogeochemical cycles, namely here atmospheric greenhouse gases. We also discuss the decadal climatic fluctuations during the last thousand years, showing an unprecedented warming attributed to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. We show the range of atmospheric greenhouse concentrations forecasted for the end of the 21. century and the climate model predictions for global temperature changes during the 21. century. We also discuss the possible climatic changes at longer time scales involving the possibility of north Atlantic heat transport collapse (possibility of abrupt climate change), and the duration of the current interglacial period. (author)

  20. Climate change and maize agriculture among Chepang communities of Nepal: A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pratiksha Sharma

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews recent literature concerning effects of climate change on agriculture and its agricultural adaptation strategies, climate change impacts on Chepang communities and their maize farming. Climate change is perhaps the most serious environmental threat to agricultural productivity. Change in temperature and precipitation specially has greater influence on crop growth and productivity and most of these effect are found to be adverse. Climate change has been great global threat with global temperature rise by 0.83 °C and global sea level rise by 0.19 m. Poor countries of the world are more vulnerable to changing climate due to different technological, institutional and resource constraints. In context of Nepal, practices like tree plantation, lowering numbers of livestock, shifting to off farm activities, sloping agricultural land technology (SALT and shifting cultivation are most common coping strategies. Chepang, one of the most backward indigenous ethnic groups of Nepal are also found to perceive change in the climate. Perception and adaptation strategies followed by different farmers of world including Chepang is mainly found to be effected by household head’s age, size of farm, family size, assessment to credit, information and extension service, training received and transportation. Maize is second most important crop in Nepal in which increase in temperature is favorable in Mountain and its yield is negatively influenced by increase in summer rain and maximum temperature. Local knowledge of indigenous people provides new insights into the phenomenon that has not yet been scientifically researched. So, government should combine this perceptive with scientific climate scenario and should conduct activities in term of adoption strategies and policies to insist targeted and marginalized farmers.

  1. Engaging Students In The Science Of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhew, R. C.; Halversen, C.; Weiss, E.; Pedemonte, S.; Weirman, T.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is arguably the defining environmental issue of our generation. It is thus increasingly necessary for every member of the global community to understand the basic underlying science of Earth's climate system and how it is changing in order to make informed, evidence-based decisions about how we will respond individually and as a society. Through exploration of the inextricable interconnection between Earth's ocean, atmosphere and climate, we believe students will be better prepared to tackle the complex issues surrounding the causes and effects of climate change and evaluate possible solutions. If students are also given opportunities to gather evidence from real data and use scientific argumentation to make evidence-based explanations about climate change, not only will they gain an increased understanding of the science concepts and science practices, the students will better comprehend the nature of climate change science. Engaging in argument from evidence is a scientific practice not only emphasized in the Framework for K-12 Science Education and the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS), but also emphasized in the Common Core State Standards for English Language Arts & Literacy in History/Social Studies and Science (CCSS). This significant overlap between NGSS and CCSS has implications for science and language arts classrooms, and should influence how we support and build students' expertise with this practice of sciences. The featured exemplary curricula supports middle school educators as they address climate change in their classrooms. The exemplar we will use is the NOAA-funded Ocean Sciences Sequence (OSS) for Grades 6-8: The ocean-atmosphere connection and climate change, which are curriculum units that deliver rich science content correlated to the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) Disciplinary Core Ideas and an emphasis on the Practices of Science, as called for in NGSS and the Framework. Designed in accordance with the latest

  2. Climate change-induced impacts on urban flood risk influenced by concurrent hazards

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, A. N.; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    hazards, rainfall and sea surge, are both important. The core in the methodology is the application of copula functions as an extension of one-dimensional risk analysis and projections of future climatic changes. The results for Greater Copenhagen indicate that the dependence between the hazards is weak......In coastal regions, several hazards may lead to floods, and if they occur concurrently, the damage will be higher than for the hazards individually. The paper outlines an approach for carrying out a risk analysis with several hazards and applies it on a case study in Greater Copenhagen where two...... and that climate change most likely will not increase the correlation. The overall change in flood return periods over a forecast horizon of 110 years are estimated to decrease by one to three orders of magnitude....

  3. Using Web GIS "Climate" for Adaptation to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordova, Yulia; Martynova, Yulia; Shulgina, Tamara

    2015-04-01

    A work is devoted to the application of an information-computational Web GIS "Climate" developed by joint team of the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS and Tomsk State University to raise awareness about current and future climate change as a basis for further adaptation. Web-GIS "Climate» (http://climate.scert.ru/) based on modern concepts of Web 2.0 provides opportunities to study regional climate change and its consequences by providing access to climate and weather models, a large set of geophysical data and means of processing and visualization. Also, the system is used for the joint development of software applications by distributed research teams, research based on these applications and undergraduate and graduate students training. In addition, the system capabilities allow creating information resources to raise public awareness about climate change, its causes and consequences, which is a necessary step for the subsequent adaptation to these changes. Basic information course on climate change is placed in the public domain and is aimed at local population. Basic concepts and problems of modern climate change and its possible consequences are set out and illustrated in accessible language. Particular attention is paid to regional climate changes. In addition to the information part, the course also includes a selection of links to popular science network resources on current issues in Earth Sciences and a number of practical tasks to consolidate the material. These tasks are performed for a particular territory. Within the tasks users need to analyze the prepared within the "Climate" map layers and answer questions of direct interest to the public: "How did the minimum value of winter temperatures change in your area?", "What are the dynamics of maximum summer temperatures?", etc. Carrying out the analysis of the dynamics of climate change contributes to a better understanding of climate processes and further adaptation

  4. Large-Scale Ocean Circulation-Cloud Interactions Reduce the Pace of Transient Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trossman, D. S.; Palter, J. B.; Merlis, T. M.; Huang, Y.; Xia, Y.

    2016-01-01

    Changes to the large scale oceanic circulation are thought to slow the pace of transient climate change due, in part, to their influence on radiative feedbacks. Here we evaluate the interactions between CO2-forced perturbations to the large-scale ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback in a climate model. Both the change of the ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback strongly influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of surface and ocean warming. Changes in the ocean circulation reduce the amount of transient global warming caused by the radiative cloud feedback by helping to maintain low cloud coverage in the face of global warming. The radiative cloud feedback is key in affecting atmospheric meridional heat transport changes and is the dominant radiative feedback mechanism that responds to ocean circulation change. Uncertainty in the simulated ocean circulation changes due to CO2 forcing may contribute a large share of the spread in the radiative cloud feedback among climate models.

  5. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Huang, Yao; Shen, Zehao; Peng, Shushi; Li, Junsheng; Zhou, Liping; Liu, Hongyan; Ma, Yuecun; Ding, Yihui; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Liu, Chunzhen; Tan, Kun; Yu, Yongqiang; Zhang, Tianyi; Fang, Jingyun

    2010-09-02

    China is the world's most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, much research has focused on China's influence on climate change but somewhat less has been written about the impact of climate change on China. China experienced explosive economic growth in recent decades, but with only 7% of the world's arable land available to feed 22% of the world's population, China's economy may be vulnerable to climate change itself. We find, however, that notwithstanding the clear warming that has occurred in China in recent decades, current understanding does not allow a clear assessment of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on China's water resources and agriculture and therefore China's ability to feed its people. To reach a more definitive conclusion, future work must improve regional climate simulations-especially of precipitation-and develop a better understanding of the managed and unmanaged responses of crops to changes in climate, diseases, pests and atmospheric constituents.

  6. The Influence of Climate Change Efficacy Messages and Efficacy Beliefs on Intended Political Participation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, P Sol; Feldman, Lauren

    2016-01-01

    Using an online survey experiment with a national sample, this study examined how changing the type and valence of efficacy information in news stories discussing global climate change may impact intended political participation through the mediators of perceived internal, external, and response efficacy. Overall, the results revealed that after a single exposure to a news story, stories including positive internal efficacy content increased perceived internal efficacy, while stories including negative external efficacy content lowered perceived external efficacy. There were limited impacts of other types of efficacy content on perceived efficacy. Perceived internal, external, and response efficacy all offered unique, positive associations with intentions to engage in climate change-related political participation. The results suggest that news stories including positive internal efficacy information in particular have the potential to increase public engagement around climate change. The implications for science communication are discussed.

  7. Climates Past, Present, and Yet-to-Come Shape Climate Change Vulnerabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadeau, Christopher P; Urban, Mark C; Bridle, Jon R

    2017-10-01

    Climate change is altering life at multiple scales, from genes to ecosystems. Predicting the vulnerability of populations to climate change is crucial to mitigate negative impacts. We suggest that regional patterns of spatial and temporal climatic variation scaled to the traits of an organism can predict where and why populations are most vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, historical climatic variation affects the sensitivity and response capacity of populations to climate change by shaping traits and the genetic variation in those traits. Present and future climatic variation can affect both climate change exposure and population responses. We provide seven predictions for how climatic variation might affect the vulnerability of populations to climate change and suggest key directions for future research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Overview of different aspects of climate change effects on soils

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qafoku, Nikolla P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-08-01

    Climate change [i.e., high atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations (≥400 ppm); increasing air temperatures (2-4°C or greater); significant and/or abrupt changes in daily, seasonal, and inter-annual temperature; changes in the wet/dry cycles; intensive rainfall and/or heavy storms; extended periods of drought; extreme frost; heat waves and increased fire frequency] is and will significantly affect soil properties and fertility, water resources, food quantity and quality, and environmental quality. Biotic processes that consume atmospheric CO2 and create organic carbon (C) that is either reprocessed to CO2 or stored in soils, are the subject of active current investigations with great concern over the influence of climate change. In addition, abiotic C cycling and its influence on the inorganic C pool in soils is a fundamental global process in which acidic atmospheric CO2 participates in the weathering of carbonate and silicate minerals, ultimately delivering bicarbonate and Ca2+ or other cations that precipitate in the form of carbonates in soils or are transported to the rivers, lakes, and oceans. Soil responses to climate change will be complex, and there are many uncertainties and unresolved issues. The objective of the review is to initiate and further stimulate a discussion about some important and challenging aspects of climate-change effects on soils, such as accelerated weathering of soil minerals and resulting C and elemental fluxes in and out of soils, soil/geo-engineering methods used to increase C sequestration in soils, soil organic matter (SOM) protection, transformation and mineralization, and SOM temperature sensitivity. This review reports recent discoveries and identifies key research needs required to understand the effects of climate change on soils.

  9. An Interface between Law and Science: The Climate Change Regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuleshov, Y.; Grandbois, M.; Kaniaha, S.

    2012-04-01

    Law and Science are jointly building the international climate change regime. Up to date, international law and climate science have been unable to take into consideration both regional law and Pacific climate science in this process. Under the International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (the Australian Government Initiative to assist with high priority climate adaptation needs in vulnerable countries in the Asia-Pacific region) significant efforts were dedicated to improve understanding of climate in the Pacific through the Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP) and through the Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program (PASAP). The first comprehensive PCCSP scientific report on the South Pacific climate has been published in 2011. Under the PASAP, web-based information tools for seasonal climate prediction have been developed and now outputs from dynamical climate model are used in 15 countries of the North-West and South Pacific for enhanced prediction of rainfall, air and sea surface temperatures which reduces countries' vulnerability to climate variability in the context of a changing climate. On a regional scale, the Meteorological and Geohazards Department of Vanuatu is preparing a full report on Climate change impacts on the country. These scientific reports and tools could lead to a better understanding of climate change in the South Pacific and to a better understanding of climate change science, for lawyers and policy-makers. The International climate change regime develops itself according to science findings, and at the pace of the four scientific reports issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In return, Law is a contributing factor to climate change, a structural data in the development and perception of environmental issues and it exerts an influence on Science. Because of the dependency of law on science, the PCCSP and PASAP outcomes will also stimulate and orientate developments in law of the Pacific

  10. Quebec industry and climatic changes : Quebec Industry Working Group on Climatic Changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-03-01

    Global climatic change is a phenomenon greatly influenced by greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activity and the natural greenhouse effect necessary to sustain life on the planet. Carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere now exceed the levels prior to the industrial revolution by 31 per cent. Half of this increase occurred during the past 30 years, while the average temperature increased by 0.3 to 0.6 degrees C. By using climate change models, scientists have linked this increase to the increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and predict that the average temperature will rise by 1 to 3.5 degrees C during the next century with increases of 5 to 10 degrees C being felt in certain parts of Canada. In an effort to curb the emissions of carbon dioxide, the Quebec Industry Working Group on Climatic Change was created to represent different sectors of the industry, including energy, metallurgy, aluminium, cement, environment, mines, plastics, petrochemicals, pulp and paper, and manufacturing. The group worked at meeting the following objectives: (1) to examine the possibilities of reducing greenhouse gases emissions in the industrial sector, (2) to propose and evaluate measures and initiatives for the reduction of greenhouse gases emissions including their cost, impact and potential timetable for implementation, (3) to identify new and promising technologies in the field of greenhouse gases reduction, (4) to identify business opportunities and risks for industry in Quebec, and (5) to recommend an implementation strategy for the Kyoto Protocol for each sector, in terms of reduction measures that would be economical and in agreement with the various plans in place at the federal, provincial and municipal levels. A total of 22 recommendations were proposed covering the entire spectrum of the mandate. 15 tabs, 2 appendices

  11. The Inuit and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fenge, T.

    2001-12-31

    Marked climate change has been forecast for regions in high latitudes by global climate models presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Observations and reports of significant alterations to the natural environment of Canada's north have been reported by Inuit and other indigenous peoples using their traditional ecological knowledge as a reference. Global climate change appears to be the cause for the changes noted. Many aspects of climate change need to be addressed, such as research, outreach, impacts, adaptations and international negotiations. Based on the strong partnership that had been developed between the Inuit and four federal agencies, three territorial governments and four indigenous people's organizations in support of the Northern Contaminants Program, Inuit are now seeking a partnership with the federal government to address the issues mentioned above concerning climate change. refs., 1 tab.

  12. The social dilemma structure of climate change mitigation: individual responses and effects on action

    OpenAIRE

    Bӧgelein, Sandra

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Climate change mitigation constitutes a social dilemma, a conflict between personal and collective outcomes. Behaviours that result in personal benefits (e.g. travelling quickly, conveniently and cheaply by plane) also result in a collective cost in the form of climate change. Behavioural theories and evidence suggest this social dilemma structure significantly influences behaviour. This thesis aims to understand how the social dilemma structure of climate change mitigation affect...

  13. Adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn

    2011-01-01

    Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling...... framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed...... down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US2.3 to US2.3toUS7...

  14. Effects of Simulated Forest Cover Change on Projected Climate Change – a Case Study of Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GÁLOS, Borbála

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Climatic effects of forest cover change have been investigated for Hungary applying theregional climate model REMO. For the end of the 21st century (2071–2100 case studies have beenanalyzed assuming maximal afforestation (forests covering all vegetated area and completedeforestation (forests replaced by grasslands of the country. For 2021–2025, the climatic influence ofthe potential afforestation based on a detailed national survey has been assessed. The simulationresults indicate that maximal afforestation may reduce the projected climate change through coolerand moister conditions for the entire summer period. The magnitude of the simulated climate changemitigating effect of the forest cover increase differs among regions. The smallest climatic benefit wascalculated in the southwestern region, in the area with the potentially strongest climate change. Thestrongest effects of maximal afforestation are expected in the northeastern part of the country. Here,half of the projected precipitation decrease could be relieved and the probability of summer droughtscould be reduced. The potential afforestation has a very slight feedback on the regional climatecompared to the maximal afforestation scenario.

  15. Knowledge Mapping for Climate Change and Food- and Waterborne Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenza, Jan C.; Höuser, Christoph; Herbst, Susanne; Rechenburg, Andrea; Suk, Jonathan E.; Frechen, Tobias; Kistemann, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The authors extracted from the PubMed and ScienceDirect bibliographic databases all articles published between 1998 and 2009 that were relevant to climate change and food- and waterborne diseases. Any material within each article that provided information about a relevant pathogen and its relationship with climate and climate change was summarized as a key fact, entered into a relational knowledge base, and tagged with the terminology (predefined terms) used in the field. These terms were organized, quantified, and mapped according to predefined hierarchical categories. For noncholera Vibrio sp. and Cryptosporidium sp., data on climatic and environmental influences (52% and 49% of the total number of key facts, respectively) pertained to specific weather phenomena (as opposed to climate change phenomena) and environmental determinants, whereas information on the potential effects of food-related determinants that might be related to climate or climate change were virtually absent. This proportion was lower for the other pathogens studied (Campylobacter sp. 40%, Salmonella sp. 27%, Norovirus 25%, Listeria sp. 8%), but they all displayed a distinct concentration of information on general food-and water-related determinants or effects, albeit with little detail. Almost no information was available concerning the potential effects of changes in climatic variables on the pathogens evaluated, such as changes in air or water temperature, precipitation, humidity, UV radiation, wind, cloud coverage, sunshine hours, or seasonality. Frequency profiles revealed an abundance of data on weather and food-specific determinants, but also exposed extensive data deficiencies, particularly with regard to the potential effects of climate change on the pathogens evaluated. A reprioritization of public health research is warranted to ensure that funding is dedicated to explicitly studying the effects of changes in climate variables on food- and waterborne diseases. PMID:24771989

  16. Climate change research - Danish contributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joergensen, A.M.K.; Fenger, J.; Halsnaes, K.

    2001-01-01

    The book describes a series of Danish scientific and technical studies. They broadly reflect the fields and disciplines embraced by assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but with an emphasis on natural sciences (i.e. climate investigations and impact studies). After the general introduction, that presents the issue and gives a summary of the content of the book, the chapters are organised in four parts: 1. The Climate System and Climate Variations. 2. Climate Change Scenarios. 3. Impacts of Climate Change. 4. Policy Aspects. Each chapter is indexed separately. (LN)

  17. Climate engineering research : A precautionary response to climate change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reynolds, J.L.; Fleurke, F.M.

    2013-01-01

    In the face of dire forecasts for anthropogenic climate change, climate engineering is increasingly discussed as a possible additional set of responses to reduce climate change’s threat. These proposals have been controversial, in part because they – like climate change itself – pose uncertain risks

  18. Climate change, conflict and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowles, Devin C; Butler, Colin D; Morisetti, Neil

    2015-10-01

    Future climate change is predicted to diminish essential natural resource availability in many regions and perhaps globally. The resulting scarcity of water, food and livelihoods could lead to increasingly desperate populations that challenge governments, enhancing the risk of intra- and interstate conflict. Defence establishments and some political scientists view climate change as a potential threat to peace. While the medical literature increasingly recognises climate change as a fundamental health risk, the dimension of climate change-associated conflict has so far received little attention, despite its profound health implications. Many analysts link climate change with a heightened risk of conflict via causal pathways which involve diminishing or changing resource availability. Plausible consequences include: increased frequency of civil conflict in developing countries; terrorism, asymmetric warfare, state failure; and major regional conflicts. The medical understanding of these threats is inadequate, given the scale of health implications. The medical and public health communities have often been reluctant to interpret conflict as a health issue. However, at times, medical workers have proven powerful and effective peace advocates, most notably with regard to nuclear disarmament. The public is more motivated to mitigate climate change when it is framed as a health issue. Improved medical understanding of the association between climate change and conflict could strengthen mitigation efforts and increase cooperation to cope with the climate change that is now inevitable. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

  19. Copenhagen Climate Change Conference: The Current Situation and the Future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broughton, Emma

    2010-01-01

    The Copenhagen climate change conference has failed to meet expectations but has also led to a shift in the structure of multilateral negotiations on climate change. States have reclaimed negotiations, while the UN-centred structure has been weakened. Relations between developed and emerging countries have shifted, with the latter influence growing. There has also been an increased participation of civil-society actors (NGOs) in the debate. A new negotiation structure is emerging but it faces the difficult challenge of avoiding fragmentation

  20. Climate change and environmental concentrations of POPs: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadal, Martí; Marquès, Montse; Mari, Montse; Domingo, José L

    2015-11-01

    In recent years, the climate change impact on the concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) has become a topic of notable concern. Changes in environmental conditions such as the increase of the average temperature, or the UV-B radiation, are likely to influence the fate and behavior of POPs, ultimately affecting human exposure. The state of the art of the impact of climate change on environmental concentrations of POPs, as well as on human health risks, is here reviewed. Research gaps are also identified, while future studies are suggested. Climate change and POPs are a hot issue, for which wide attention should be paid not only by scientists, but also and mainly by policy makers. Most studies reported in the scientific literature are focused on legacy POPs, mainly polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and pesticides. However, the number of investigations aimed at estimating the impact of climate change on the environmental levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is scarce, despite of the fact that exposure to PAHs and photodegradation byproducts may result in adverse health effects. Furthermore, no data on emerging POPs are currently available in the scientific literature. In consequence, an intensification of studies to identify and mitigate the indirect effects of the climate change on POP fate is needed to minimize the human health impact. Furthermore, being this a global problem, interactions between climate change and POPs must be addressed from an international perspective. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Climate change and Ixodes tick-borne diseases of humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostfeld, Richard S; Brunner, Jesse L

    2015-04-05

    The evidence that climate warming is changing the distribution of Ixodes ticks and the pathogens they transmit is reviewed and evaluated. The primary approaches are either phenomenological, which typically assume that climate alone limits current and future distributions, or mechanistic, asking which tick-demographic parameters are affected by specific abiotic conditions. Both approaches have promise but are severely limited when applied separately. For instance, phenomenological approaches (e.g. climate envelope models) often select abiotic variables arbitrarily and produce results that can be hard to interpret biologically. On the other hand, although laboratory studies demonstrate strict temperature and humidity thresholds for tick survival, these limits rarely apply to field situations. Similarly, no studies address the influence of abiotic conditions on more than a few life stages, transitions or demographic processes, preventing comprehensive assessments. Nevertheless, despite their divergent approaches, both mechanistic and phenomenological models suggest dramatic range expansions of Ixodes ticks and tick-borne disease as the climate warms. The predicted distributions, however, vary strongly with the models' assumptions, which are rarely tested against reasonable alternatives. These inconsistencies, limited data about key tick-demographic and climatic processes and only limited incorporation of non-climatic processes have weakened the application of this rich area of research to public health policy or actions. We urge further investigation of the influence of climate on vertebrate hosts and tick-borne pathogen dynamics. In addition, testing model assumptions and mechanisms in a range of natural contexts and comparing their relative importance as competing models in a rigorous statistical framework will significantly advance our understanding of how climate change will alter the distribution, dynamics and risk of tick-borne disease.

  2. Economic losses from US hurricanes consistent with an influence from climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Estrada Porrua, F.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2015-01-01

    Warming of the climate system and its impacts on biophysical and human systems have been widely documented. The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have also changed, but the observed increases in natural disaster losses are often thought to result solely from societal change, such as

  3. A first look at the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the future delivery of fluvial sediment to the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darby, Stephen E; Dunn, Frances E; Nicholls, Robert J; Rahman, Munsur; Riddy, Liam

    2015-09-01

    We employ a climate-driven hydrological water balance and sediment transport model (HydroTrend) to simulate future climate-driven sediment loads flowing into the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) mega-delta. The model was parameterised using high-quality topographic data and forced with daily temperature and precipitation data obtained from downscaled Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for the period 1971-2100. Three perturbed RCM model runs were selected to quantify the potential range of future climate conditions associated with the SRES A1B scenario. Fluvial sediment delivery rates to the GBM delta associated with these climate data sets are projected to increase under the influence of anthropogenic climate change, albeit with the magnitude of the increase varying across the two catchments. Of the two study basins, the Brahmaputra's fluvial sediment load is predicted to be more sensitive to future climate change. Specifically, by the middle part of the 21(st) century, our model results suggest that sediment loads increase (relative to the 1981-2000 baseline period) over a range of between 16% and 18% (depending on climate model run) for the Ganges, but by between 25% and 28% for the Brahmaputra. The simulated increase in sediment flux emanating from the two catchments further increases towards the end of the 21(st) century, reaching between 34% and 37% for the Ganges and between 52% and 60% for the Brahmaputra by the 2090s. The variability in these changes across the three climate change simulations is small compared to the changes, suggesting they represent a significant increase. The new data obtained in this study offer the first estimate of whether and how anthropogenic climate change may affect the delivery of fluvial sediment to the GBM delta, informing assessments of the future sustainability and resilience of one of the world's most vulnerable mega-deltas. Specifically, such significant increases in future sediment loads could increase the resilience

  4. Forestry Canada's perspectives on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, J.P.; Carlson, L.W.

    1990-01-01

    The impacts of climatic change on Canada's forestry sector are discussed, in the context of major research priorities relating to forecasting climate, forecasting forest responses, monitoring changes, mitigating effects, and understanding the forest carbon balance. There are five major concerns that affect policy decisions: effects of climatic change on forests; adaptation to climate change; impacts of changing crops on forestry; changing forestry values in changing sociological settings; and international implications of the changing climate. A scientific program to respond to climate change issues is required, and should include the following concentrations of research effort. Planning requires projections of likely future climates, and efforts should concern relations between pre-historic climates and forest ecosystems and integrating data into predictive models. Forecasting of response of forests should include tree physiology, factors controlling reforestation, variations in forest trees, effects of pollutants, damage to forests, and forest decline

  5. Governing Global Climate Change: Past Achievements, Future Prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ella Kokotsis

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The cumulative effects of a significantly changing climate are projected to have disastrous implications on the world’s natural habitats, and along with that, are projected to drastically increase the rate and likelihood of violent conflict globally, particularly in high-density, urban, poverty hotspots. Limiting the effects of a changing climate is thus critical in influencing multiple societal goals including equitable sustainable development, human health, biodiversity, food security and access to reliable energy sources. This paper argues that the G7/8 has led global climate governance in ways other international environmental institu­tions have largely failed to do. It has done so largely by placing climate protection at the forefront of its policy objectives, alongside economic, health, energy and security goals, and reaching consensus repeatedly amongst its leaders on the impor­tance of stabilizing emissions through energy efficiency, conservation, investment and technological innovation. Moreover, this chapter argues that the summit’s predominant capability, its constricted participation, democratic convergence and political cohesion – as well as the combined effects of global shocks – have all had positive impacts on the G7/8’s success in mitigating climate change. Following a detailed process-tracing exercise over the summit’s 40-year history in which clear surges and retreats on global climate governance are outlined, this paper concludes by assessing the G7/8’s accountability record on climate mitigation and outlines a set of prescriptive recommendations, allowing for the delivery of a more tangible, coherent, results-driven accountability process for global climate governance.

  6. Predictors of technical adoption and behavioural change to transport energy-saving measures in response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aini, M.S.; Chan, S.C.; Syuhaily, O.

    2013-01-01

    Energy conservation can be achieved through the adoption of technical measures or the changing of one's behaviour. A survey of 201 Malaysian public personnel was conducted to examine the predictors of these two types of transport energy-saving measures in response to climate change. The results indicated that there were significant differences in the relative acceptability of both behavioural measures with respect to gender, level of education, income, knowledge of climate change and attitude. Gender, knowledge of causes of climate change and personal norm were predictors for the acceptability of technical measures, while perceived efficacy and personal norm were the factors that influenced the acceptability of behavioural measures. The results also indicated that distinctions ought to be made between technology adoption and behaviour modifications that require lifestyle changes when assessing pro-environmental intent behaviour. The implications for theory and practice are discussed. - Highlights: • A survey was conducted to examine acceptability of transport energy-saving measures. • Gender, knowledge of causes, efficacy and personal norm are predictors of technical measures. • Personal norm and perceived efficacy influenced acceptability of behavioural change. • Both measures are strongly correlated to psychological factors than to socio-demographic variables

  7. Communal farming, climate change adaptation and the media in Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mthokozisi P. Ndhlovu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is destroying Zimbabwean communal farmers’ agricultural activities – a source of living for most people. As communal farmers struggle to adapt, the media is expected to assume a fundamental theoretical role of educating and informing them about the appropriate adaptation techniques. Located in Umguza District in Matabeleland North Province, the study explored how communal farmers created meaning out of climate change media content and its influence on their agricultural practices from October 2014 to April 2015. In doing so, the study used the Two-Step Flow theory and Hall’s Encoding and Decoding Model. Entrenched in pragmatism, the study embedded quantitative techniques at different stages. Multistage sampling combining Simple Random Sampling (SRS, purposive and systematic sampling techniques was used to identify the 263 households for semi structured questionnaires, direct observations and in-depth interviews. The findings were analysed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS, thematic analysis and pattern matching. The results show that personal observations; print, broadcast and online media; and opinion leaders were the main sources of climate change information. The radio was the most used medium in communicating climate change adaptation though it was the second most accessed after mobile phones. Conservation Agriculture and planting of drought-resistant crops were some of the adaptation techniques communicated in the media. When interacting with media content, communal farmers create their own meaning influenced by their cultural values, resulting in some adopting, rejecting or modifying certain adaptation techniques. The study concludes that opinion leaders are fundamental in communal farmers’ interaction with media but their influence must not be overestimated.

  8. Climate Change Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presents information, charts and graphs showing measured climate changes across 40 indicators related to greenhouse gases, weather and climate, oceans, snow and ice, heath and society, and ecosystems.

  9. When climate science became climate politics: British media representations of climate change in 1988.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaspal, Rusi; Nerlich, Brigitte

    2014-02-01

    Climate change has become a pressing environmental concern for scientists, social commentators and politicians. Previous social science research has explored media representations of climate change in various temporal and geographical contexts. Through the lens of Social Representations Theory, this article provides a detailed qualitative thematic analysis of media representations of climate change in the 1988 British broadsheet press, given that this year constitutes an important juncture in this transition of climate change from the domain of science to that of the socio-political sphere. The following themes are outlined: (i) "Climate change: a multi-faceted threat"; (ii) "Collectivisation of threat"; (iii) "Climate change and the attribution of blame"; and (iv) "Speculative solutions to a complex socio-environmental problem." The article provides detailed empirical insights into the "starting-point" for present-day disputes concerning climate change and lays the theoretical foundations for tracking the continuities and discontinuities characterising social representations of climate change in the future.

  10. Interdecadal changes of summer aerosol pollution in the Yangtze River Basin of China, the relative influence of meteorological conditions and the relation to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jizhi; Zhang, Xiaoye; Li, Duo; Yang, Yuanqin; Zhong, Junting; Wang, Yaqiang; Che, Haochi; Che, Huizheng; Zhang, Yangmei

    2018-07-15

    Winter is a season of much concern for aerosol pollution in China, but less concern for pollution in the summertime. There are even less concern and larger uncertainty about interdecadal changes in summer aerosol pollution, relative influence of meteorological conditions, and their links to climate change. Here we try to reveal the relation among interdecadal changes in summer's most important circulation system affecting China (East Asian Summer Monsoon-EASM), an index of meteorological conditions (called PLAM, Parameter Linking Air Quality and Meteorological Elements, which is almost linearly related with aerosol pollution), and aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (M-LYR) in central eastern China during summertime since the 1960's. During the weak monsoon years, the aerosol pollution load was heavier in the M-LYR and opposite in the strong monsoon years mainly influenced by EASM and associated maintenance position of the anti-Hadley cell around 115°E. The interdecadal changes in meteorological conditions and their associated aerosol pollution in the context of such climate change have experienced four periods since the 1960's, which were a relatively large decreased period from 1961 to 1980, a large rise between 1980 and 1999, a period of slow rise or maintenance from 1999 to 2006, and a relatively rapid rise between 2006 and 2014. Among later three pollution increased periods, about 51%, 25% and 60% of the aerosol pollution change respectively come from the contribution of worsening weather conditions, which are found to be greatly affected by changes in EASM. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Our knowledge on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turkenburg, W.C.; Van Wijk, A.J.M.

    1991-01-01

    A workshop was organised to evaluate and discuss the report 'Scientific Assessment of Climate Change (1990)' of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Thirty prominent Dutch experts in the field attended the workshop. The introductions and discussions held on our knowledge of climatic change as a result of the growth of the greenhouse effect caused by the emission of greenhouse gases from human actions are presented. It is concluded that the IPCC-report shows in a clear and balanced way the certainties and uncertainties in our knowledge of climate change. There is a large chance that the earth's climate will change considerably, if the policy remains unamended. 15 figs., 2 apps

  12. A Faculty Workshop Model to Integrate Climate Change across the Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teranes, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    Much of the growing scientific certainty of human impacts on the climate system, and the implications of these impacts on current and future generations, have been discovered and documented in research labs in colleges and universities across the country. Often these institutions also take decisive action towards combatting climate change, by making significant reductions in greenhouse emissions and pledging to greater future reductions. Yet, there are still far too many students that graduate from these campuses without an adequate understanding of how climate change will impact them within their lifetimes and without adequate workforce preparation to implement solutions. It may be that where college and universities still have the largest influence on climate change adaption and mitigation is in the way that we educate students. Here I present a curriculum workshop model at UC San Diego that leverages faculty expertise to infuse climate change education across disciplines to enhance UC San Diego students' climate literacy, particularly for those students whose major focus is not in the geosciences. In this model, twenty faculty from a breadth of disciplines, including social sciences, humanities, arts, education, and natural sciences participated in workshops and developed curricula to infuse aspects of climate change into their existing undergraduate courses. We particularly encouraged development of climate change modules in courses in the humanities, social sciences and arts that are best positioned to address the important human and social dimensions of climate change. In this way, climate change content becomes embedded in current course offerings, including non-science courses, to increase climate literacy among a greater number and a broader cross-section of students.

  13. Effects of Crack and Climate Change on Service Life of Concrete Subjected to Carbonation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Yong Wang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Carbonation is among the primary reasons for the initiation of the corrosion of steel rebar in reinforced concrete (RC structures. Due to structural loading effects and environmental actions, inevitable cracks have frequently occurred in concrete structures since the early ages. Additionally, climate change, which entails increases in CO2 concentration and environmental temperature, will also accelerate the carbonation of concrete. This article presents an analytical way of predicting the service life of cracked concrete structures considering influences of carbonation and climate change. First, using a hydration model, the quantity of carbonatable materials and concrete porosity were calculated. Carbonation depth was evaluated considering properties of concrete materials and environmental conditions. Second, the influence of cracks on CO2 diffusivity was examined. Carbonation depth for cracked concrete was evaluated using equivalent CO2 diffusivity. The effects of climate change, for example, growing CO2 concentration and environmental temperature, were considered using different schemes of carbonation models. Third, different climate change scenarios (such as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5 and upper 90% confidence interval of RCP 8.5 and time slices (such as 2000 and 2050 were used for case studies. By utilizing the Monte Carlo method, the influences of various climate change scenarios on the service life loss of concrete structures were highlighted.

  14. Climate change: biological and human aspects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jonathan Cowie

    2007-07-15

    The textbook provides a broad review of past, present and likely future climate change from the viewpoints of biology, ecology and human ecology. Contents are: 1. An introduction to climate change; 2. Principal indicators of past climates; 3. Past climate change; 4. The Oligocene to the Quaternary: climate and biology; 5. Present climate and biological change; 6. Current warming and likely future impacts; 7. Human ecology of climate change; 8. Sustainability and policy; Appendix 1. Glossary and acronyms; Appendix 2. Bio-geological timescale; Appendix 3. Calculations of energy demand/supply, and orders of magnitude; Index. 69 figs.

  15. Our Changing Climate: A Brand New Way to Study Climate Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I.; Nugnes, K. A.; Mills, E. W.

    2014-12-01

    Earth's climate is inherently variable, but is currently changing at rates unprecedented in recent Earth history. Human activity plays a major role in this change and is projected to do so well into the future. This is the stance taken in Our Changing Climate, the brand new climate science ebook from the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Our Changing Climate investigates Earth's climate system, explores humans' impact on it, and identifies actions needed in response to climate change. Released in August 2014, Our Changing Climate is the result of a year's worth of intensive research and writing, incorporating the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the Third National Climate Assessment. To encourage additional exploration of climate science information, scientific literature, from which chapter content was derived, is cited at the conclusion of each chapter. In addition, Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive information related to various topics. For example, a Topic In Depth in Chapter 11 describes the effect of climate extremes on ranching enterprises in Nebraska. Climate science is multi-disciplinary and therefore Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics. From understanding basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate Earth's climate system to examining the psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial, the AMS believes that a multi-disciplinary approach is the most effective way to increase climate literacy. Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course which is intended for undergraduate-level students. Other course materials include an eInvestigations Manual and access to the RealTime Climate Portal, both of which provide weekly activities corresponding to that week's chapter content. The RealTime Climate Portal also has links to climate data as well as societal interactions and climate policy

  16. Climate change and One Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zinsstag, Jakob; Crump, Lisa; Schelling, Esther; Hattendorf, Jan; Maidane, Yahya Osman; Ali, Kadra Osman; Muhummed, Abdifatah; Umer, Abdurezak Adem; Aliyi, Ferzua; Nooh, Faisal; Abdikadir, Mohammed Ibrahim; Ali, Seid Mohammed; Hartinger, Stella; Mäusezahl, Daniel; de White, Monica Berger Gonzalez; Cordon-Rosales, Celia; Castillo, Danilo Alvarez; McCracken, John; Abakar, Fayiz; Cercamondi, Colin; Emmenegger, Sandro; Maier, Edith; Karanja, Simon; Bolon, Isabelle; de Castañeda, Rafael Ruiz; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Tschopp, Rea; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Cissé, Guéladio

    2018-06-01

    The journal The Lancet recently published a countdown on health and climate change. Attention was focused solely on humans. However, animals, including wildlife, livestock and pets, may also be impacted by climate change. Complementary to the high relevance of awareness rising for protecting humans against climate change, here we present a One Health approach, which aims at the simultaneous protection of humans, animals and the environment from climate change impacts (climate change adaptation). We postulate that integrated approaches save human and animal lives and reduce costs when compared to public and animal health sectors working separately. A One Health approach to climate change adaptation may significantly contribute to food security with emphasis on animal source foods, extensive livestock systems, particularly ruminant livestock, environmental sanitation, and steps towards regional and global integrated syndromic surveillance and response systems. The cost of outbreaks of emerging vector-borne zoonotic pathogens may be much lower if they are detected early in the vector or in livestock rather than later in humans. Therefore, integrated community-based surveillance of zoonoses is a promising avenue to reduce health effects of climate change.

  17. The changing effects of Alaska’s boreal forests on the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Euskirchen, E.S.; McGuire, A. David; Chapin, F.S.; Rupp, T.S.

    2010-01-01

    In the boreal forests of Alaska, recent changes in climate have influenced the exchange of trace gases, water, and energy between these forests and the atmosphere. These changes in the structure and function of boreal forests can then feed back to impact regional and global climates. In this manuscript, we examine the type and magnitude of the climate feedbacks from boreal forests in Alaska. Research generally suggests that the net effect of a warming climate is a positive regional feedback to warming. Currently, the primary positive climate feedbacks are likely related to decreases in surface albedo due to decreases in snow cover. Fewer negative feedbacks have been identified, and they may not be large enough to counterbalance the large positive feedbacks. These positive feedbacks are most pronounced at the regional scale and reduce the resilience of the boreal vegetation – climate system by amplifying the rate of regional warming. Given the recent warming in this region, the large variety of associated mechanisms that can alter terrestrial ecosystems and influence the climate system, and a reduction in the boreal forest resilience, there is a strong need to continue to quantify and evaluate the feedback pathways.

  18. Deducing Climatic Elasticity to Assess Projected Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow Change across China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jianyu; Zhang, Qiang; Zhang, Yongqiang; Chen, Xi; Li, Jianfeng; Aryal, Santosh K.

    2017-10-01

    Climatic elasticity has been widely applied to assess streamflow responses to climate changes. To fully assess impacts of climate under global warming on streamflow and reduce the error and uncertainty from various control variables, we develop a four-parameter (precipitation, catchment characteristics n, and maximum and minimum temperatures) climatic elasticity method named PnT, based on the widely used Budyko framework and simplified Makkink equation. We use this method to carry out the first comprehensive evaluation of the streamflow response to potential climate change for 372 widely spread catchments in China. The PnT climatic elasticity was first evaluated for a period 1980-2000, and then used to evaluate streamflow change response to climate change based on 12 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The results show that (1) the PnT climatic elasticity method is reliable; (2) projected increasing streamflow takes place in more than 60% of the selected catchments, with mean increments of 9% and 15.4% under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively; and (3) uncertainties in the projected streamflow are considerable in several regions, such as the Pearl River and Yellow River, with more than 40% of the selected catchments showing inconsistent change directions. Our results can help Chinese policy makers to manage and plan water resources more effectively, and the PnT climatic elasticity should be applied to other parts of the world.

  19. Bioenergy, Land Use Change and Climate Change Mitigation. Report for Policy Advisors and Policy Makers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berndes, Goran [Chalmers Univ. of Technology (Sweden); Bird, Nell [Joanneum Research (Austria); Cowle, Annette [National Centre for Rural Greenhouse Gas Research (Australia)

    2010-07-01

    The report addresses a much debated issue - bioenergy and associated land use change, and how the climate change mitigation from use of bioenergy can be influenced by greenhouse gas emissions arising from land use change. The purpose of the report was to produce an unbiased, authoritative statement on this topic aimed especially at policy advisors and policy makers.

  20. Comparative study on Climate Change Policies in the EU and China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bray, M.; Han, D.

    2012-04-01

    Both the EU and China are among the largest CO2 emitters in the world; their climate actions and policies have profound impacts on global climate change and may influence the activities in other countries. Evidence of climate change has been observed across Europe and China. Despite the many differences between the two regions, the European Commission and Chinese government support climate change actions. The EU has three priority areas in climate change: 1) understanding, monitoring and predicting climate change and its impact; 2) providing tools to analyse the effectiveness, cost and benefits of different policy options for mitigating climate change and adapting to its impacts; 3) improving, demonstrating and deploying existing climate friendly technologies and developing the technologies of the future. China is very vulnerable to climate change, because of its vast population, fast economic development, and fragile ecological environment. The priority policies in China are: 1) Carbon Trading Policy; 2) Financing Loan Policy (Special Funds for Renewable Energy Development); 3) Energy Efficiency Labelling Policy; 4) Subsidy Policy. In addition, China has formulated the "Energy Conservation Law", "Renewable Energy Law", "Cleaner Production Promotion Law" and "Circular Economy Promotion Law". Under the present EU Framework Programme FP7 there is a large number of funded research activities linked to climate change research. Current climate change research projects concentrate on the carbon cycle, water quality and availability, climate change predictors, predicting future climate and understanding past climates. Climate change-related scientific and technological projects in China are mostly carried out through national scientific and technological research programs. Areas under investigation include projections and impact of global climate change, the future trends of living environment change in China, countermeasures and supporting technologies of global

  1. Climate Change and the Impact on Respiratory and Allergic Disease: 2018.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demain, Jeffrey G

    2018-03-24

    The purpose of this paper is to review allergic respiratory disease related to indoor and outdoor exposures and to examine the impact of known and projected changes in climate. The global burden of disease directly attributed to climate change is very difficult to measure and becomes more challenging when the capacity of humans to adapt to these changes is taken into consideration. Allergic respiratory disease, such as asthma, is quite heterogenous, though closely associated with environmental and consequently immunologic interaction. Where is the tipping point? Our climate has been measurably changing for the past 100 years. It may indeed be the most significant health threat of the twenty-first century, and consequently tackling climate change may be the greatest health opportunity. The impacts of climate change on human health are varied and coming more into focus. Direct effects, such as heatwaves, severe weather, drought, and flooding, are apparent and frequently in the news. Indirect or secondary effects, such as changes in ecosystems and the impact on health, are less obvious. It is these changes in ecosystems that may have the greatest impact on allergic and respiratory diseases. This review will explore some ways that climate change, current and predicted, influences respiratory disease. Discussion will focus on changing pollen patterns, damp buildings with increased mold exposure, air pollution, and heat stress.

  2. Climate change and atopic dermatitis: is there a link?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Giang Huong; Andersen, Louise Kronborg; Davis, Mark Denis P

    2018-06-05

    Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a chronic relapsing inflammatory skin disease with a growing health concern, because of its high prevalence and associated low quality of life. The etiology of AD is multifactorial with interaction between various factors such as genetic predisposition, immune, and importantly, environmental factors. Since climate change is associated with a profound shift in environmental factors, we suggest that AD is being influenced by climate change. This review highlights the effects of ultraviolet light, temperature, humidity, pollens, air pollutants, and their interaction between them contributing to the epidemiology and pathophysiology of AD. © 2018 The International Society of Dermatology.

  3. Europeans' attitudes towards climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-07-01

    This report presents the results of a survey on Europeans' attitudes towards climate change which was carried out in January and February 2009. The survey focuses on: Citizens' perceptions of climate change in relation to other world problems; Citizens' perceptions of the seriousness of climate change; The extent to which citizens feel informed about climate change - its causes, consequences and ways of fighting it; Citizens' attitudes towards alternative fuels and CO2 emissions; Whether citizens feel that climate change is stoppable or has been exaggerated, and what impact it has on the European economy; Whether citizens have taken personal action to fight climate change. This Eurobarometer survey was carried out by TNS Opinion and Social network between 16 January and 22 February 2009. The interviews were conducted among 26,718 citizens in the 27 Member States of the European Union, the three candidate countries for accession to the European Union (Croatia, Turkey and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia) and in the Turkish Cypriot Community.

  4. Climate change and climate policy; Klimaendringer og klimapolitikk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Kolshus, Hans H.; Torvanger, Asbjoern

    2000-08-01

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done

  5. Climate change: against despair

    OpenAIRE

    McKinnon, Catriona

    2014-01-01

    In the face of accelerating climate change and the parlous state of its politics, despair is tempting. This paper analyses two manifestations of despair about climate change related to (1) the inefficacy of personal emissions reductions, and (2) the inability to make a difference to climate change through personal emissions reductions. On the back of an analysis of despair as a loss of hope, the paper argues that the judgements grounding each form of despair are unsound. The paper concludes w...

  6. Beyond yields: Climate change effects on specialty crop quality and agroecological management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selena Ahmed

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Climate change is impacting the sustainability of food systems through shifts in natural and human dimensions of agroecosystems that influence farmer livelihoods, consumer choices, and food security. This paper highlights the need for climate studies on specialty crops to focus not only on yields, but also on quality, as well as the ability of agroecological management to buffer climate effects on quality parameters. Crop quality refers to phytonutrient and secondary metabolite profiles and associated health and sensory properties that influence consumer buying decisions. Through two literature reviews, we provide examples of specialty crops that are vulnerable to climate effects on quality and examples of climate-resilient agroecological strategies. A range of specialty crops including fruits, vegetables, tree nuts, stimulants, and herbs were identified to respond to climate variables with changes in quality. The review on climate-resilient strategies to mitigate effects on crop quality highlighted a major gap in the literature. However, agricultural diversification emerged as a promising strategy for climate resilience more broadly and highlights the need for future research to assess the potential of diversified agroecosystems to buffer climate effects on crop quality. We integrate the concepts from our literature review within a socio-ecological systems framework that takes into account feedbacks between crop quality, consumer responses, and agroecosystem management. The presented framework is especially useful for two themes in agricultural development and marketing, nutrition-sensitive agriculture and terroir, for informing the design of climate-change resilient specialty crop systems focused on management of quality and other ecosystem services towards promoting environmental and human wellbeing.

  7. Anthropogenic climate change has altered primary productivity in Lake Superior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Beirne, M D; Werne, J P; Hecky, R E; Johnson, T C; Katsev, S; Reavie, E D

    2017-06-09

    Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter many facets of Earth's freshwater resources, especially lacustrine ecosystems. The effects of anthropogenic changes in Lake Superior, which is Earth's largest freshwater lake by area, are not well documented (spatially or temporally) and predicted future states in response to climate change vary. Here we show that Lake Superior experienced a slow, steady increase in production throughout the Holocene using (paleo)productivity proxies in lacustrine sediments to reconstruct past changes in primary production. Furthermore, data from the last century indicate a rapid increase in primary production, which we attribute to increasing surface water temperatures and longer seasonal stratification related to longer ice-free periods in Lake Superior due to anthropogenic climate warming. These observations demonstrate that anthropogenic effects have become a prominent influence on one of Earth's largest, most pristine lacustrine ecosystems.

  8. Climate change matters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macpherson, Cheryl Cox

    2014-04-01

    One manifestation of climate change is the increasingly severe extreme weather that causes injury, illness and death through heat stress, air pollution, infectious disease and other means. Leading health organisations around the world are responding to the related water and food shortages and volatility of energy and agriculture prices that threaten health and health economics. Environmental and climate ethics highlight the associated challenges to human rights and distributive justice but rarely address health or encompass bioethical methods or analyses. Public health ethics and its broader umbrella, bioethics, remain relatively silent on climate change. Meanwhile global population growth creates more people who aspire to Western lifestyles and unrestrained socioeconomic growth. Fulfilling these aspirations generates more emissions; worsens climate change; and undermines virtues and values that engender appreciation of, and protections for, natural resources. Greater understanding of how virtues and values are evolving in different contexts, and the associated consequences, might nudge the individual and collective priorities that inform public policy toward embracing stewardship and responsibility for environmental resources necessary to health. Instead of neglecting climate change and related policy, public health ethics and bioethics should explore these issues; bring transparency to the tradeoffs that permit emissions to continue at current rates; and offer deeper understanding about what is at stake and what it means to live a good life in today's world.

  9. Human values and beliefs and concern about climate change: a Bayesian longitudinal analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prati, Gabriele; Pietrantoni, Luca; Albanesi, Cinzia

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of human values on beliefs and concern about climate change using a longitudinal design and Bayesian analysis. A sample of 298 undergraduate/master students filled out the same questionnaire on two occasions at an interval of 2 months. The questionnaire included measures of beliefs and concern about climate change (i.e., perceived consequences, risk perception, and skepticism) and human values (i.e., the Portrait Values Questionnaire). After controlling for gender and the respective baseline score, universalism at Time 1 was associated with higher levels of perceived consequences of climate change and lower levels of climate change skepticism. Self-direction at Time 1 predicted Time 2 climate change risk perception and perceived consequences of climate change. Hedonism at Time 1 was associated with Time 2 climate change risk perception. The other human values at Time 1 were not associated with any of the measures of beliefs and concern about climate change at Time 2. The results of this study suggest that a focus on universalism and self-direction values seems to be a more successful approach to stimulate public engagement with climate change than a focus on other human values.

  10. The influence of climate change on flood risks in France ­- first estimates and uncertainty analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Dumas , Patrice; Hallegatte , Sréphane; Quintana-Seguí , Pere; Martin , Eric

    2013-01-01

    International audience; Abstract. This paper proposes a methodology to project the possible evolution of river flood damages due to climate change, and applies it to mainland France. Its main contributions are (i) to demonstrate a methodology to investigate the full causal chain from global climate change to local economic flood losses; (ii) to show that future flood losses may change in a very significant manner over France; (iii) to show that a very large uncertainty arises from the climate...

  11. Crop advisors as climate information brokers: Building the capacity of US farmers to adapt to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Carmen Lemos

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the role of crop advisors as brokers of climate information to support US corn farmers to adapt to climatic change. It uses quantitative data collected from a broad survey of crop advisors in the US Corn Belt to examine the factors that shape advisors’ use of (and willingness to provide climate information to their clients. Building upon a general model of climate information usability we argue that advisors’ willingness to provide climate advice to farmers is influenced by three main factors: their information seeking habits and behavior, their experience with innovation in the past, and how climate information interplays with other kinds of information that they provide—especially agronomic advice. We find that advisors’ willingness to provide climate related information depends both on factors at the individual and organizational level and on the type of advice they provide. First, at the individual and organizational levels, advisors who work in supportive organizations and who collaborate with other advisors are more likely to provide climate information. Second, advisors are more likely to provide climate information if it does not interfere with their main profit making business (e.g. provision of agronomic advice. Third, there is a significant positive relationship between trust in a greater number or sources of information and use of climate information. Fourth, the way advisors perceive short- and long-term risk also influences their willingness to provide climate information; the more concerned they are about long-term climate-related risks to farming, the more likely they are to provide (or want to provide advice based on climate information. Differently from other empirical work in the literature, our analytical model suggests that neither negative experiences with climate information in the past nor the high level of uncertainty characteristic of climate information appear to influence advisors

  12. Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freer, Jennifer J; Partridge, Julian C; Tarling, Geraint A; Collins, Martin A; Genner, Martin J

    2018-01-01

    Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica . Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies.

  13. Climate Change and Natural Disasters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Merkouris, Panos; Negri, Stefania; Maljean-Dubois, Sandrine

    2014-01-01

    Only 21 years ago, in 1992, the first ever convention on climate change, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was signed. The science behind studying climate change and its effects on the environment is not only mind-boggling but still in its infancy. It should come

  14. Framing the challenge of climate change in Nature and Science editorials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hulme, Mike; Obermeister, Noam; Randalls, Samuel; Borie, Maud

    2018-06-01

    Through their editorializing practices, leading international science journals such as Nature and Science interpret the changing roles of science in society and exert considerable influence on scientific priorities and practices. Here we examine nearly 500 editorials published in these two journals between 1966 and 2016 that deal with climate change, thereby constructing a lens through which to view the changing engagement of science and scientists with the issue. A systematic longitudinal frame analysis reveals broad similarities between Nature and Science in the waxing and waning of editorializing attention given to the topic, but, although both journals have diversified how they frame the challenges of climate change, they have done so in different ways. We attribute these differences to three influences: the different political and epistemic cultures into which they publish; their different institutional histories; and their different editors and editorial authorship practices.

  15. Comparing climate change and species invasions as drivers of coldwater fish population extirpations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sapna Sharma

    Full Text Available Species are influenced by multiple environmental stressors acting simultaneously. Our objective was to compare the expected effects of climate change and invasion of non-indigenous rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax on cisco (Coregonus artedii population extirpations at a regional level. We assembled a database of over 13,000 lakes in Wisconsin, USA, summarising fish occurrence, lake morphology, water chemistry, and climate. We used A1, A2, and B1 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC of future temperature conditions for 15 general circulation models in 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 totalling 78 projections. Logistic regression indicated that cisco tended to occur in cooler, larger, and deeper lakes. Depending upon the amount of warming, 25-70% of cisco populations are predicted to be extirpated by 2100. In addition, cisco are influenced by the invasion of rainbow smelt, which prey on young cisco. Projecting current estimates of rainbow smelt spread and impact into the future will result in the extirpation of about 1% of cisco populations by 2100 in Wisconsin. Overall, the effect of climate change is expected to overshadow that of species invasion as a driver of coldwater fish population extirpations. Our results highlight the potentially dominant role of climate change as a driver of biotic change.

  16. The influence of long term climate change on net infiltration at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flint, A.L.; Hevesi, J.A.; Flint, L.E.

    1993-01-01

    Net infiltration and recharge at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, a potential site for a high level nuclear waste repository, are determined both by the rock properties and past and future changes in climate. A 1-dimensional model was constructed to represent a borehole being drilled through the unsaturated zone. The rock properties were matched to the lithologies expected to be encountered in the borehole. As current paleoclimate theory assumes that 18 O increases with wetter and cooler global climates, a past climate scenario, built on depletion of 18 O from ocean sediments was used as a basis for climate change over the past 700,000 years. The climate change was simulated by assigning net infiltration values as a linear function of 18 O. Assuming the rock properties, lithologies, and climate scenarios are correct, simulations indicated that Yucca Mountain is not in steady state equilibrium at the surface ( 250 meters. Based on the cyclic climate inputs, the near surface is currently in a long term drying trend (for the last 3,000 years) yet recharge into the water table is continuing to occur at an average rate equivalent to the average input rate of the climate model, indicating that conditions at depth are damped out over very long time periods. The Paintbrush Tuff nonwelded units, positioned between the Tiva Canyon and Topopah Spring welded tuff Members, do not appear to act as a capillary barrier and therefore would not perch water. The low porosity vitric caprock and basal vitrophyre of the Topopah Spring Member, however, act as restrictive layers. The higher porosity rock directly above the caprock reduces the potential for the caprock to perch water leaving the basal vitrophyre as the most likely location for perched water to develop

  17. Adapting agriculture to climate change in Kenya: household strategies and determinants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, Elizabeth; Ringler, Claudia; Okoba, Barrack; Roncoli, Carla; Silvestri, Silvia; Herrero, Mario

    2013-01-15

    Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable to climate change, given dependence on agricultural production and limited adaptive capacity. Based on farm household and Participatory Rural Appraisal data collected from districts in various agroecological zones in Kenya, this paper examines farmers' perceptions of climate change, ongoing adaptation measures, and factors influencing farmers' decisions to adapt. The results show that households face considerable challenges in adapting to climate change. While many households have made small adjustments to their farming practices in response to climate change (in particular, changing planting decisions), few households are able to make more costly investments, for example in agroforestry or irrigation, although there is a desire to invest in such measures. This emphasizes the need for greater investments in rural and agricultural development to support the ability of households to make strategic, long-term decisions that affect their future well-being. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Interactions of changing climate and shifts in forest composition on stand carbon balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang Jyh-Min; Louis Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Kim Brown

    2006-01-01

    Given that climate influences forest biogeographic distribution, many researchers have created models predicting shifts in tree species range with future climate change scenarios. The objective of this study is to investigate the forest carbon consequences of shifts in stand species composition with current and future climate scenarios using such a model.

  19. An evidence-based public health approach to climate change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hess, Jeremy J; Eidson, Millicent; Tlumak, Jennifer E; Raab, Kristin K; Luber, George

    2014-11-01

    Public health is committed to evidence-based practice, yet there has been minimal discussion of how to apply an evidence-based practice framework to climate change adaptation. Our goal was to review the literature on evidence-based public health (EBPH), to determine whether it can be applied to climate change adaptation, and to consider how emphasizing evidence-based practice may influence research and practice decisions related to public health adaptation to climate change. We conducted a substantive review of EBPH, identified a consensus EBPH framework, and modified it to support an EBPH approach to climate change adaptation. We applied the framework to an example and considered implications for stakeholders. A modified EBPH framework can accommodate the wide range of exposures, outcomes, and modes of inquiry associated with climate change adaptation and the variety of settings in which adaptation activities will be pursued. Several factors currently limit application of the framework, including a lack of higher-level evidence of intervention efficacy and a lack of guidelines for reporting climate change health impact projections. To enhance the evidence base, there must be increased attention to designing, evaluating, and reporting adaptation interventions; standardized health impact projection reporting; and increased attention to knowledge translation. This approach has implications for funders, researchers, journal editors, practitioners, and policy makers. The current approach to EBPH can, with modifications, support climate change adaptation activities, but there is little evidence regarding interventions and knowledge translation, and guidelines for projecting health impacts are lacking. Realizing the goal of an evidence-based approach will require systematic, coordinated efforts among various stakeholders.

  20. Carbon sequestration in managed temperate coniferous forests under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dymond, Caren C.; Beukema, Sarah; Nitschke, Craig R.; Coates, K. David; Scheller, Robert M.

    2016-03-01

    Management of temperate forests has the potential to increase carbon sinks and mitigate climate change. However, those opportunities may be confounded by negative climate change impacts. We therefore need a better understanding of climate change alterations to temperate forest carbon dynamics before developing mitigation strategies. The purpose of this project was to investigate the interactions of species composition, fire, management, and climate change in the Copper-Pine Creek valley, a temperate coniferous forest with a wide range of growing conditions. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II modelling framework including the new Forest Carbon Succession extension to simulate forest ecosystems under four different productivity scenarios, with and without climate change effects, until 2050. Significantly, the new extension allowed us to calculate the net sector productivity, a carbon accounting metric that integrates aboveground and belowground carbon dynamics, disturbances, and the eventual fate of forest products. The model output was validated against literature values. The results implied that the species optimum growing conditions relative to current and future conditions strongly influenced future carbon dynamics. Warmer growing conditions led to increased carbon sinks and storage in the colder and wetter ecoregions but not necessarily in the others. Climate change impacts varied among species and site conditions, and this indicates that both of these components need to be taken into account when considering climate change mitigation activities and adaptive management. The introduction of a new carbon indicator, net sector productivity, promises to be useful in assessing management effectiveness and mitigation activities.