WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate change indicators

  1. Climate Change Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presents information, charts and graphs showing measured climate changes across 40 indicators related to greenhouse gases, weather and climate, oceans, snow and ice, heath and society, and ecosystems.

  2. Indications of climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-04-01

    The earth's annual mean global temperature increased by around 0,6 C during the 20 century, with wide regional differences. Even if solar activity has played some part in the mean temperature rise and some greenhouse gases are present naturally in the atmosphere, enhancing of the greenhouse effect due to the human activities is responsible for a large and increasing part of the observed warming. The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change confirms the future increase under all scenarios. Depending on the efforts made by mankind to limit greenhouse gases emissions, the global mean temperature in 2100 could be between 1,4 and 5,8 C higher than in 2000. (A.L.B.)

  3. Climate change indicators in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has published this report, Climate Change Indicators in the United States, to help readers interpret a set of important indicators to better understand climate change. The report presents 24 indicators, ...

  4. Climate indices of Iran under climate change

    OpenAIRE

    alireza kochaki; mehdi nasiry; gholamali kamali

    2009-01-01

    Global warming will affect all climatic variables and particularly rainfall patterns. The purpose of present investigation was to predict climatic parameters of Iran under future climate change and to compare them with the present conditions. For this reason, UKMO General Circulation Model was used for the year 2025 and 2050. By running the model, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and also maximum monthly rainfall for the representative climate stations were calculated and finally the e...

  5. Climate indices of Iran under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    alireza kochaki

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Global warming will affect all climatic variables and particularly rainfall patterns. The purpose of present investigation was to predict climatic parameters of Iran under future climate change and to compare them with the present conditions. For this reason, UKMO General Circulation Model was used for the year 2025 and 2050. By running the model, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and also maximum monthly rainfall for the representative climate stations were calculated and finally the effects of climate change on these variables based on pre-determined scenarios was evaluated. The results showed that averaged over all stations, mean temperature increase for spring in the year 2025 and 2050 will be 3.1 and 3.9, for summer 3.8 and 4.7, for autumn 2.3 and 3 and for winter 2.0 and 2.4 ºC, respectively. This increase will be more pronounced from North to the South and from East to the West parts of the country. Mean decrease in autumn rainfall for the target years of 2025 and 2050 will be 8 and 11 percent, respectively. This decrease is negligible for summer months. Length of dry season for the years 2025 and 2050 will be increased, respectively up to 214 and 223 days due to combined effects of increased temperature and decreased rainfall.

  6. CCME Climate Change Indicators -- Workshop Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    In an effort to give Canadians a better understanding of the climate change issue, in 1999 the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME) established a Project Working Group to identify and assemble a set of climate change indicators that is scientifically valid, useful and meaningful to the public. To ensure the widest possible participation of experts from all parts of the country the Project Working Group convened a two-day workshop in Toronto to take place on the 6th and 7th of November 2000. The outcome of the workshop, summarized in this report, resulted in a 'Made in Canada' framework of indicators for climate change impacts, divided into five categories: physical environment, personal health and safety, jobs and economic well-being, social and community well-being, and eco-system health. The report contains highlights of the discussions. There are seven appendices containing, respectively, a series of pre-workshop suggestions for indicators (Appendix A), the workshop agenda and backgrounder (Appendix B), a list of participants (Appendix C), presentation slides on the Canada country study (Appendix D), existing and proposed climate change indicators (Appendix E), presentation slides on communication issues (Appendix F), and notes summarizing small group discussions, including assessment of the level of interest demonstrated and opinions expressed by group members about the utility and value of each of the proposed indicators (Appendix G)

  7. Climate Change Indicators: Health and Society

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... chapter looks at some of the ways that climate change is affecting human health and society, including changes in Lyme disease, West ... health effects. Why does it matter? Changes in climate affect the ... to human health and welfare. Warmer average temperatures will likely lead ...

  8. SOILS AS INDICATORS OF CLIMATIC CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yury Chendev

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A number of examples for the reaction of chernozems in the center of the East European Plain and their relation to different periodical climatic changes are examined. According to unequal-age chernozems properties, the transition from the Middle Holocene arid conditions to the Late Holocene wet conditions occurred at 4000 yr BP. Using data on changes of soil properties, the position of boundary between steppe and forest-steppe and the annual amount of precipitation at approximately 4000 yr BP were reconstructed. The change from warm-dry to cool-moist climatic phases, which occurred at the end of the XX century as a reflection of intra-age-long climatic cyclic recurrence, led to the strengthening of dehumification over the profile of automorphic chernozems and to the reduction of its content in the upper meter of the soils. The leaching of carbonates and of readily soluble salts contributed to the decrease in soil areas occupied by typical and solonetzic chernozems, and to the increase in areas occupied by leached chernozems.

  9. Wildlife as biological indicators for assessing impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diamond, A.W.

    1990-01-01

    Estimates of the impacts of climate change on wildlife are necessarily constrained by knowledge of the effects of climate on wildlife. A review is presented of the better-known impacts of climate on wildlife, examining their utility as ecological indicators. The most obvious feature of any species is its geographic distribution, or range. Climate may affect distribution indirectly through effects on habitat, directly through physiological effects, or most probably, through both. Impacts can include changes in distribution of habitat, changes in distribution of species, and changes in migration routes. Direct effects of climate include timing and success of breeding, timing and success of migration, winter survival, and extreme events. Distribution changes are powerful integrators of ecosystem-level events, but poor indicators of particular changes. Changes in the timing of migration, and the phenology of breeding, are more directly determined by weather events and hence will be better indicators of changing climate. Detailed knowledge of effects of climate on timing and success of breeding is available for only a few species, and has not been carefully synthesized with a view to using such variables as climatic indicators. Temperature maxima and minima, frost-free and degree days, and estimates of precipitation on finer scales, both temporal and geographic, are needed to predict the effects of climate change on wildlife. 48 refs

  10. Communicating global climate change using simple indices: an update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drost, Frank; Karoly, David [University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Braganza, Karl [National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

    2012-08-15

    Previous studies have shown that there are several indices of global-scale temperature variations, in addition to global-mean surface air temperature, that are useful for distinguishing natural internal climate variations from anthropogenic climate change. Appropriately defined, such indices have the ability to capture spatio-temporal information in a similar manner to optimal fingerprints of climate change. These indices include the contrast between the average temperatures over land and over oceans, the Northern Hemisphere meridional temperature gradient, the temperature contrast between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere and the magnitude of the annual cycle of average temperatures over land. They contain information independent of the global-mean temperature for internal climate variations at decadal time scales and represent different aspects of the climate system, yet they show common responses to anthropogenic climate change. In addition, the ratio of average temperature changes over land to those over the oceans should be nearly constant for transient climate change. Hence, supplementing analysis of global-mean surface temperature with analyses of these indices can strengthen results of attribution studies of causes of observed climate variations. In this study, we extend the previous work by including the last 10 years of observational data and the CMIP3 climate model simulations analysed for the IPCC AR4. We show that observed changes in these indices over the last 10 years provide increased evidence of an anthropogenic influence on climate. We also show the usefulness of these indices for evaluating the performance of climate models in simulating large-scale variability of surface temperature. (orig.)

  11. Utilizing the social media data to validate 'climate change' indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molodtsova, T.; Kirilenko, A.; Stepchenkova, S.

    2013-12-01

    Reporting the observed and modeled changes in climate to public requires the measures understandable by the general audience. E.g., the NASA GISS Common Sense Climate Index (Hansen et al., 1998) reports the change in climate based on six practically observable parameters such as the air temperature exceeding the norm by one standard deviation. The utility of the constructed indices for reporting climate change depends, however, on an assumption that the selected parameters are felt and connected with the changing climate by a non-expert, which needs to be validated. Dynamic discussion of climate change issues in social media may provide data for this validation. We connected the intensity of public discussion of climate change in social networks with regional weather variations for the territory of the USA. We collected the entire 2012 population of Twitter microblogging activity on climate change topic, accumulating over 1.8 million separate records (tweets) globally. We identified the geographic location of the tweets and associated the daily and weekly intensity of twitting with the following parameters of weather for these locations: temperature anomalies, 'hot' temperature anomalies, 'cold' temperature anomalies, heavy rain/snow events. To account for non-weather related events we included the articles on climate change from the 'prestige press', a collection of major newspapers. We found that the regional changes in parameters of weather significantly affect the number of tweets published on climate change. This effect, however, is short-lived and varies throughout the country. We found that in different locations different weather parameters had the most significant effect on climate change microblogging activity. Overall 'hot' temperature anomalies had significant influence on climate change twitting intensity.

  12. Greenhouse gas emissions considered responsible for climate change: Environmental indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vialetto, G.; Venanzi, M.; Gaudioso, D.

    1993-09-01

    This paper concerns the more significant environmental indicators related to the emissions of radiatively and chemically/photochemically active trace gases. Reference is made to the preliminary work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and to the proposals made in the framework of the international negotiation on climate change. Aiming to contribute to the definition of a national strategy for the reduction of greenhouse gases emissions, this paper proposes a possible application of the indicators. The calculation of the indicators is based on the emission estimate performed by ENEA (Italian National Agency for Energy, New Technologies and the Environment) for the Report on the State of the Environment edited by the Italian Ministry of the Environment. Finally, the paper suggests an application of such indicators for the international negotiation, in the framework of the Italian proposal for the Convention on climate change

  13. Assessment of weather indicators for possible climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maqssood, H.; Ahmed, S.I.

    2014-01-01

    From 20 century onwards, a great concern has been expressed regarding global climate change. This study attempts to perform detailed analysis of temperature and precipitation for Karachi city of Pakistan, to assess the possible climate change, using two data sets (51-year data: 1961-2012 and 31-year data: 1981-2012) for different parameters. Trends were generated using linear regression (LR) and Mann-Kendall (MK), which depicted that daily and annual temperatures were increasing, with changes in minimum temperature being more significant than maximum temperature. Analyses also showed increase in extreme temperature at night and during winter, showing that urbanization was a major factor, as the heat from buildings trapped in between dissipates at nights. The daily and monthly precipitation levels increased in contrast to annual precipitation trend, which is justified by the averaged monthly analysis showing that decreasing trends were much more significant than increasing trends. In addition, monthly precipitation showed an increase of 4.3 mm, using LR and MK test. It can be noticed that two extreme winter months (December and January) and two extreme hot months (May and October) received increased rainfall. However, statistical analyses showed overall annual decrease in rainfall. Furthermore, decadal analysis indicated sinusoidal behaviour of change in climate indicators; making climatic change evident but cyclic in nature. (author)

  14. Epiphytes as an Indicator of Climate Change in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettwich, S. K.

    2013-12-01

    Although climate change threatens many ecosystems, current research in this field suggests tropical vegetation lags in response. Epiphytes, or arboreal vegetation, occupy tight, climate-defined niches compared with co-occurring life forms such as trees, yet there have been few studies of Hawaii's epiphyte communities. Because of Hawaii Island's natural climatic diversity, it is an ideal location to understand how these intrinsically climate sensitive plants interact with the atmosphere and evaluate how they may serve as a near-term indicator of climate change. Here we establish a baseline from which changes in corticolous epiphyte communities can be monitored as a leading indicator of likely forest changes by 1) investigating patterns of epiphyte abundance and species composition across elevation and precipitation gradients on windward Hawaii Island, and 2) using physiological measurements to investigate the relative importance of rain vs. fog in epiphyte-atmosphere interactions. The precipitation gradient keeps elevation constant at 1000m, while varying precipitation between 2,400 and 6,400 mm/year. The elevation gradient keeps rainfall constant at 3000mm/year, and varies elevation between 200 and 1750 m. Forest sites are dominated by Ohia Lehua (Metrosideros polymorpha) across broad geographic and climatological ranges thus allowing examination of epiphytes on this single host. We quantified bryophytes and vascular plants growing on Ohia trunks with standardized diameter and branching characteristics. Overall, epiphyte communities showed much finer scale responses to climate variation when compared with structurally dominant vegetation (which was broadly similar at all sites). The precipitation gradient exhibits a clear increase in abundance of all epiphyte groups and a definable increase in diversity with increasing rainfall. Results across the elevation gradient show a higher abundance of filmy ferns and bryophytes above the lifting condensation level (about

  15. Mountains as early warning indicators of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, M. W.

    2015-12-01

    The panoramic splendor and complexity of mountain environments have inspired and challenged humans for centuries. These areas have been variously perceived as physical structures to be conquered, as sites of spiritual inspiration, and as some of the last untamed natural places on Earth. In our time, the perception that "mountains are forever" may provide solace to those seeking stability in a rapidly changing world. However, changes in the hydrology and in the abundance and species composition of the native flora and fauna of mountain ecosystems are potential bellwethers of global change, because these systems have a propensity to amplify environmental changes within specific portions of this landscape. Mountain areas are thus sentinels of climate change. We are seeing effects today in case histories I present from the Himalaya's, Andes, Alps, and Rocky Mountains. Furthermore, these ecosystem changes are occurring in mountain areas before they occur in downstream ecosystems. Thus, mountains are early warning indicators of perturbations such as climate change. The sensitivity of mountain ecosystems begs for enhanced protection and worldwide protection. Our understanding of the processes that control mountain ecosystems—climate interactions, snowmelt runoff, biotic diversity, nutrient cycling—is much less developed compared to downstream ecosystems where human habitation and development has resulted in large investments in scientific knowledge to sustain health and agriculture. To address these deficiencies, I propose the formation of an international mountain research consortium.

  16. Impact of climate change in Switzerland on socioeconomic snow indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmucki, Edgar; Marty, Christoph; Fierz, Charles; Weingartner, Rolf; Lehning, Michael

    2017-02-01

    Snow is a key element for many socioeconomic activities in mountainous regions. Due to the sensitivity of the snow cover to variations of temperature and precipitation, major changes caused by climate change are expected to happen. We analyze the evolution of some key snow indices under future climatic conditions. Ten downscaled and postprocessed climate scenarios from the ENSEMBLES database have been used to feed the physics-based snow model SNOWPACK. The projected snow cover has been calculated for 11 stations representing the diverse climates found in Switzerland. For the first time, such a setup is used to reveal changes in frequently applied snow indices and their implications on various socioeconomic sectors. Toward the end of the twenty-first century, a continuous snow cover is likely only guaranteed at high elevations above 2000 m a.s.l., whereas at mid elevations (1000-1700 m a.s.l.), roughly 50 % of all winters might be characterized by an ephemeral snow cover. Low elevations (below 500 m a.s.l.) are projected to experience only 2 days with snowfall per year and show the strongest relative reductions in mean winter snow depth of around 90 %. The range of the mean relative reductions of the snow indices is dominated by uncertainties from different GCM-RCM projections and amounts to approximately 30 %. Despite these uncertainties, all snow indices show a clear decrease in all scenario periods and the relative reductions increase toward lower elevations. These strong reductions can serve as a basis for policy makers in the fields of tourism, ecology, and hydropower.

  17. Update of indicators for climate change mitigation in Greece

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dimitroulopoulou, C.; Ziomas, I.

    2011-01-01

    This paper analyses the factors affecting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Greece, (i.e. the drivers of pressures on climate change), using environmental indicators related to energy, demographics and economic growth. The analysis is based on the data of 2008 and considers types of fuel and sectors. The Kaya identity is used to identify the relationship between drivers and pressures, using annual time series data of National GHG emissions, population, energy consumption and gross domestic product. The analysis shows that over the period 2000-2008, GHG emissions show a slight variation, but they are almost stabilised, with a total increase of 1.6%. Despite the economic growth over that period, this stabilisation may be considered as a combination of reductions in the energy intensity of GDP and the carbon intensity of energy, which are affected by improvements in energy efficiency and introduction of 'cleaner' fuels, such as natural gas and renewables in the energy mixture of the country. - Highlights: → We analyse drivers affecting GHG emissions (pressures on climate) in Greece, using indicators. → Indicators relate to energy, demographics and economic growth. → Kaya identity identifies the relationship between drivers and pressures. → GHG emissions are almost stable due to reductions in energy intensity and carbon intensity of energy. → Improvements in energy efficiency and introduction of clean fuels in energy mix reduce emissions.

  18. Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, Melissa A.; Chen, Robert S.; Maldonado, Julie; Quattrochi, Dale

    2011-01-01

    The Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment workshop, sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for the National Climate Assessment (NCA), was held on April 28-29, 2011 at The Madison Hotel in Washington, DC. A group of 56 experts (see list in Appendix B) convened to share their experiences. Participants brought to bear a wide range of disciplinary expertise in the social and natural sciences, sector experience, and knowledge about developing and implementing indicators for a range of purposes. Participants included representatives from federal and state government, non-governmental organizations, tribes, universities, and communities. The purpose of the workshop was to assist the NCA in developing a strategic framework for climate-related physical, ecological, and socioeconomic indicators that can be easily communicated with the U.S. population and that will support monitoring, assessment, prediction, evaluation, and decision-making. The NCA indicators are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The workshop participants were asked to provide input on a number of topics, including: (1) categories of societal indicators for the NCA; (2) alternative approaches to constructing indicators and the better approaches for NCA to consider; (3) specific requirements and criteria for implementing the indicators; and (4) sources of data for and creators of such indicators. Socioeconomic indicators could include demographic, cultural, behavioral, economic, public health, and policy components relevant to impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation to climate change as well as both proactive and reactive responses to climate change. Participants provided

  19. Financial market response to extreme events indicating climatic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

    2016-05-01

    A variety of recent extreme climatic events are considered to be strong evidence that the climate is warming, but these incremental advances in certainty often seem ignored by non-scientists. I identify two unusual types of events that are considered to be evidence of climate change, announcements by NASA that the global annual average temperature has set a new record, and the sudden collapse of major polar ice shelves, and then conduct an event study to test whether news of these events changes investors' valuation of energy companies, a subset of firms whose future performance is closely tied to climate change. I find evidence that both classes of events have influenced energy stock prices since the 1990s, with record temperature announcements on average associated with negative returns and ice shelf collapses associated with positive returns. I identify a variety of plausible mechanisms that may be driving these differential responses, discuss implications for energy markets' views on long-term regulatory risk, and conclude that investors not only pay attention to scientifically significant climate events, but discriminate between signals carrying different information about the nature of climatic change.

  20. Indicators of climate change in Idaho: An assessment framework for coupling biophysical change and social perception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change is well documented at the global scale, but local and regional changes are not as well understood. Finer, local-to-regional scale information is needed for creating specific, place-based planning and adaption efforts. Here we detail the development of an indicator-focused climate chan...

  1. Developing a System of National Climate Assessment Indicators to Track Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janetos, A. C.; Kenney, M. A.; Chen, R. S.; Arndt, D.

    2012-12-01

    The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/). Part of the vision for the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process is a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information that is useful to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region. These indicators will be tracked as a part of ongoing assessment activities, with adjustments as necessary to adapt to changing conditions and understanding. The indicators will be reviewed and updated so that the system adapts to new information. The NCA indicator system is not intended to serve as a vehicle for documenting rigorous cause and effect relationships. It is reasonable, however, for it to serve as a guide to those factors that affect the evolution of variability and change in the climate system, the resources and sectors of concern that are affected by it, and how society chooses to respond. Different components of the end-to-end climate issue serve as categories within which to organize an end-to-end system of indicators: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks Atmospheric Composition Physical Climate Variability and Change Sectors and Resources of Concern Adaptation and Mitigation Responses This framing has several advantages. It can be used to identify the different components of the end-to-end climate issue that both decision-makers and researchers are interested in. It is independent of scale, and therefore allows the indicators themselves to be described at

  2. Developing a National Climate Indicators System to Track Climate Changes, Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, M. A.; Janetos, A. C.; Arndt, D.; Chen, R. S.; Pouyat, R.; Anderson, S. M.

    2013-12-01

    The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. Part of the vision, which is now under development, for the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process is a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information that is useful to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region. These indicators will be tracked as a part of ongoing assessment activities, with adjustments as necessary to adapt to changing conditions and understanding. The indicators will be reviewed and updated so that the system adapts to new information. The NCA indicator system is not intended to serve as a vehicle for documenting rigorous cause and effect relationships. It is reasonable, however, for it to serve as a guide to those factors that affect the evolution of variability and change in the climate system, the resources and sectors of concern that are affected by it, and how society chooses to respond. Different components of the end-to-end climate issue serve as categories within which to organize an end-to-end system of indicators: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, Atmospheric Composition, Physical Climate Variability and Change, Sectors and Resources of Concern, and Adaptation and Mitigation Responses. This framing has several advantages. It can be used to identify the different components of the end-to-end climate issue that both decision-makers and researchers are interested in. It is independent of scale, and therefore allows the indicators themselves to be described at spatial

  3. Small Mammals as Indicators of Climate, Biodiversity, and Ecosystem Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hope, Andrew G.; Waltari, Eric; Morse, Nathan R.; Flamme, M.J.; Cook, Joseph A.; Talbot, Sandra L.

    2017-01-01

    Climate is a driving evolutionary force for biodiversity in high-latitude Alaska. This region is complex and dynamic with high annual variation in temperature and light. Through deeper time, Alaska has experienced major climate extremes over much longer periodicity. For example, the Quaternary Period (the last ~2.5 million years), commonly known as the Ice Age, was punctuated by more than 20 major glacial-interglacial cycles. During glacial phases, water was locked up in ice sheets that covered much of North America, and the resulting lower sea levels exposed a land connection between Alaska and Siberia, a combined region known as Beringia (Figure 1). This isthmus provided vast expanses of land for species to inhabit, provided they could withstand potentially harsh polar conditions. Each extended glacial phase periodically transitioned into a shorter interglacial warm phase. These climate reversals melted continental ice sheets to expose corridors for reinvasion of terrestrial species, particularly those associated with forested habitats further south. Those species that survived at northern latitudes through repeated glacial-interglacial cycles formed the Arctic tundra communities that persist today. At present, Alaska supports diverse communities associated with both tundra and forests (Figure 2). These communities often interact with one another across latitudinal and elevational gradients, with tundra species generally found further north or higher in elevation. Alaska’s climate is continuing to change today, strongly influencing local environments and the distribution and dynamics of wildlife species.

  4. Development of key indicators to quantify the health impacts of climate change on Canadians

    OpenAIRE

    Cheng, June J.; Berry, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Objectives This study aimed at developing a list of key human health indicators for quantifying the health impacts of climate change in Canada. Methods A literature review was conducted in OVID Medline to identify health morbidity and mortality indicators currently used to quantify climate change impacts. Public health frameworks and other studies of climate change indicators were reviewed to identify criteria with which to evaluate the list of proposed key indicators and a rating scale was d...

  5. Climate change scenarios and key climate indices in the Swiss Alpine region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubler, Elias; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa; Frei, Christoph; Liniger, Mark; Scherrer, Simon; Appenzeller, Christof

    2013-04-01

    For climate adaption and to support climate mitigation policy it is of outermost importance to demonstrate the consequences of climate change on a local level and in user oriented quantities. Here, a framework is presented to apply the Swiss national climate change scenarios CH2011 to climate indices with direct relevance to applications, such as tourism, transportation, agriculture and health. This framework provides results on a high spatial and temporal resolution and can also be applied in mountainous regions such as the Alps. Results are shown for some key indices, such as the number of summer days and tropical nights, growing season length, number of frost days, heating and cooling degree days, and the number of days with fresh snow. Particular focus is given to changes in the vertical distribution for the future periods 2020-2049, 2045-2074 and 2070-2099 relative to the reference period 1980-2009 for the A1B, A2 and RCP3PD scenario. The number of days with fresh snow is approximated using a combination of temperature and precipitation as proxies. Some findings for the latest scenario period are: (1) a doubling of the number of summer days by the end of the century under the business-as-usual scenario A2, (2) tropical nights appear above 1500 m asl, (3) the number of frost days may be reduced by more than 3 months at altitudes higher than 2500 m, (4) an overall reduction of heating degree days of about 30% by the end of the century, but on the other hand an increase in cooling degree days in warm seasons, and (5) the number of days with fresh snow tends to go towards zero at low altitudes. In winter, there is little change in snowfall above 2000 m asl (roughly -3 days) in all scenarios. The largest impact on snowfall is found along the Northern Alpine flank and the Jura (-10 days or roughly -50% in A1B for the winter season). It is also highlighted that the future projections for all indices strongly depend on the chosen scenario and on model uncertainty

  6. Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change as Revealed by Relationships between Simulated Crop Yield and Climate Change Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, A. W.; Absar, S. M.; Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.

    2012-12-01

    The vulnerability of agriculture is among the leading concerns surrounding climate change. Agricultural production is influenced by drought and other extremes in weather and climate. In regions of subsistence farming, worst case reductions in yield lead to malnutrition and famine. Reduced surplus contributes to poverty in agrarian economies. In more economically diverse and industrialized regions, variations in agricultural yield can influence the regional economy through market mechanisms. The latter grows in importance as agriculture increasingly services the energy market in addition to markets for food and fiber. Agriculture is historically a highly adaptive enterprise and will respond to future changes in climate with a variety of adaptive mechanisms. Nonetheless, the risk, if not expectation, of increases in climate extremes and hazards exceeding historical experience motivates scientifically based anticipatory assessment of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change. We investigate the sensitivity component of that vulnerability using EPIC, a well established field-scale model of cropping systems that includes the simulation of economic yield. The core of our analysis is the relationship between simulated yield and various indices of climate change, including the CCI/CLIVAR/JCOM ETCCDI indices, calculated from weather inputs to the model. We complement this core with analysis using the DSSAT cropping system model and exploration of relationships between historical yield statistics and climate indices calculated from weather records. Our analyses are for sites in the Southeast/Gulf Coast region of the United States. We do find "tight" monotonic relationships between annual yield and climate for some indices, especially those associated with available water. More commonly, however, we find an increase in the variability of yield as the index value becomes more extreme. Our findings contribute to understanding the sensitivity of crop yield as part of

  7. Environmental health indicators of climate change for the United States: findings from the State Environmental Health Indicator Collaborative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    English, Paul B; Sinclair, Amber H; Ross, Zev; Anderson, Henry; Boothe, Vicki; Davis, Christine; Ebi, Kristie; Kagey, Betsy; Malecki, Kristen; Shultz, Rebecca; Simms, Erin

    2009-11-01

    To develop public health adaptation strategies and to project the impacts of climate change on human health, indicators of vulnerability and preparedness along with accurate surveillance data on climate-sensitive health outcomes are needed. We researched and developed environmental health indicators for inputs into human health vulnerability assessments for climate change and to propose public health preventative actions. We conducted a review of the scientific literature to identify outcomes and actions that were related to climate change. Data sources included governmental and nongovernmental agencies and the published literature. Sources were identified and assessed for completeness, usability, and accuracy. Priority was then given to identifying longitudinal data sets that were applicable at the state and community level. We present a list of surveillance indicators for practitioners and policy makers that include climate-sensitive health outcomes and environmental and vulnerability indicators, as well as mitigation, adaptation, and policy indicators of climate change. A review of environmental health indicators for climate change shows that data exist for many of these measures, but more evaluation of their sensitivity and usefulness is needed. Further attention is necessary to increase data quality and availability and to develop new surveillance databases, especially for climate-sensitive morbidity.

  8. Development of ecological indicators of climate change based on lichen functional diversity

    OpenAIRE

    Matos, Paula Sofia Antunes

    2016-01-01

    Growing evidence shows us that climate has changed in the recent decades, and the scenario for the future will most likely worsen. A set of climate variables is being developed to monitor climate change, but this is not enough to keep track its effects on ecosystems. It’s imperative to understand and quantify how ecosystems functioning are affected by and respond to these changes, and ecological indicators based on biodiversity metrics are one of the tools to do this. The...

  9. Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonius G T Schut

    Full Text Available Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010 derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17-36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1-2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity.

  10. An indicator of the impact of climatic change on European bird populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard D Gregory

    Full Text Available Rapid climatic change poses a threat to global biodiversity. There is extensive evidence that recent climatic change has affected animal and plant populations, but no indicators exist that summarise impacts over many species and large areas. We use data on long-term population trends of European birds to develop such an indicator. We find a significant relationship between interspecific variation in population trend and the change in potential range extent between the late 20(th and late 21(st centuries, forecasted by climatic envelope models. Our indicator measures divergence in population trend between bird species predicted by climatic envelope models to be favourably affected by climatic change and those adversely affected. The indicator shows a rapid increase in the past twenty years, coinciding with a period of rapid warming.

  11. Sensitivity of health sector indicators' response to climate change in Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dovie, Delali B K; Dzodzomenyo, Mawuli; Ogunseitan, Oladele A

    2017-01-01

    There is accumulating evidence that the emerging burden of global climate change threatens the fidelity of routine indicators for disease detection and management of risks to public health. The threat partially reflects the conservative character of the health sector and the reluctance to adopt new indicators, despite the growing awareness that existing environmental health indicators were developed to respond to risks that may no longer be relevant, and are too simplistic to also act as indicators for newer global-scale risk factors. This study sought to understand the scope of existing health indicators, while aiming to discover new indicators for building resilience against three climate sensitive diseases (cerebro spinal meningitis, malaria and diarrhea). Therefore, new potential indicators derived from human and biophysical origins were developed to complement existing health indicators, thereby creating climate-sensitive battery of robust composite indices of resilience in health planning. Using Ghana's health sector as a case study systematic international literature review, national expert consultation, and focus group outcomes yielded insights into the relevance, sensitivity and impacts of 45 indicators in 11 categories in responding to climate change. In total, 65% of the indicators were sensitive to health impacts of climate change; 24% acted directly; 31% synergistically; and 45% indirectly, with indicator relevance strongly associated with type of health response. Epidemiological indicators (e.g. morbidity) and health demographic indicators (e.g. population structure) require adjustments with external indicators (e.g. biophysical, policy) to be resilient to climate change. Therefore, selective integration of social and ecological indicators with existing public health indicators improves the fidelity of the health sector to adopt more robust planning of interdependent systems to build resilience. The study highlights growing uncertainties in

  12. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper, the authors discuss in brief the magnitude and rate of past changes in climate and examine the various factors influencing climate in order to place the potential warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in context. Feedback mechanisms that can amplify or lessen imposed climate changes are discussed next. The overall sensitivity of climate to changes in forcing is then considered, followed by a discussion of the time-dependent response of the Earth system. The focus is on global temperature as an indicator for the magnitude of climatic change

  13. Evaluating climate change mitigation potential of hydrochars: compounding insights from three different indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Owsianiak, Mikołaj; Brooks, Jennifer; Renz, Michael

    2017-01-01

    beet, fava bean, onion and lucerne) and two different countries (Spain and Germany), and used three different indicators of climate change: global warming potential (GWP), global temperature change potential (GTP), and climate tipping potential (CTP). We found that although climate change benefits (GWP......) from just sequestration and temporary storage of carbon are sufficient to outweigh impacts stemming from hydrochar production and transportation to the field, even greater benefits stem from replacing climate-inefficient biowaste management treatment options, like composting in Spain. By contrast...

  14. Development of key indicators to quantify the health impacts of climate change on Canadians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, June J; Berry, Peter

    2013-10-01

    This study aimed at developing a list of key human health indicators for quantifying the health impacts of climate change in Canada. A literature review was conducted in OVID Medline to identify health morbidity and mortality indicators currently used to quantify climate change impacts. Public health frameworks and other studies of climate change indicators were reviewed to identify criteria with which to evaluate the list of proposed key indicators and a rating scale was developed. Total scores for each indicator were calculated based on the rating scale. A total of 77 health indicators were identified from the literature. After evaluation using the chosen criteria, 8 indicators were identified as the best for use. They include excess daily all-cause mortality due to heat, premature deaths due to air pollution (ozone and particulate matter 2.5), preventable deaths from climate change, disability-adjusted life years lost from climate change, daily all-cause mortality, daily non-accidental mortality, West Nile Disease incidence, and Lyme borreliosis incidence. There is need for further data and research related to health effect quantification in the area of climate change.

  15. Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment: Building a Framework to Track Physical and Social Indicators of Climate Change Across Pacific Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grecni, Z. N.; Keener, V. W.

    2016-12-01

    Assessments inform regional and local climate change governance and provide the critical scientific basis for U.S. climate policy. Despite the centrality of scientific information to public discourse and decision making, comprehensive assessments of climate change drivers, impacts, and the vulnerability of human and ecological systems at regional or local scales are often conducted on an ad hoc basis. Methods for sustained assessment and communication of scientific information are diverse and nascent. The Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA) is a collaborative effort to assess climate change indicators, impacts, and adaptive capacity of the Hawaiian archipelago and the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI). In 2012, PIRCA released the first comprehensive report summarizing the state of scientific knowledge about climate change in the region as a technical input to the U.S. National Climate Assessment. A multi-method evaluation of PIRCA outputs and delivery revealed that the vast majority of key stakeholders view the report as extremely credible and use it as a resource. The current study will present PIRCA's approach to establishing physical and social indicators to track on an ongoing basis, starting with the Republic of the Marshall Islands as an initial location of focus for providing a cross-sectoral indicators framework. Identifying and tracking useful indicators is aimed at sustaining the process of knowledge coproduction with decision makers who seek to better understand the climate variability and change and its impacts on Pacific Island communities.

  16. A Review of Frameworks for Developing Environmental Health Indicators for Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hambling, Tammy; Weinstein, Philip; Slaney, David

    2011-01-01

    The role climate change may play in altering human health, particularly in the emergence and spread of diseases, is an evolving area of research. It is important to understand this relationship because it will compound the already significant burden of diseases on national economies and public health. Authorities need to be able to assess, anticipate, and monitor human health vulnerability to climate change, in order to plan for, or implement action to avoid these eventualities. Environmental health indicators (EHIs) provide a tool to assess, monitor, and quantify human health vulnerability, to aid in the design and targeting of interventions, and measure the effectiveness of climate change adaptation and mitigation activities. Our aim was to identify the most suitable framework for developing EHIs to measure and monitor the impacts of climate change on human health and inform the development of interventions. Using published literature we reviewed the attributes of 11 frameworks. We identified the Driving force-Pressure-State-Exposure-Effect-Action (DPSEEA) framework as the most suitable one for developing EHIs for climate change and health. We propose the use of EHIs as a valuable tool to assess, quantify, and monitor human health vulnerability, design and target interventions, and measure the effectiveness of climate change adaptation and mitigation activities. In this paper, we lay the groundwork for the future development of EHIs as a multidisciplinary approach to link existing environmental and epidemiological data and networks. Analysis of such data will contribute to an enhanced understanding of the relationship between climate change and human health. PMID:21845162

  17. Trends in global vegetation activity and climatic drivers indicate a decoupled response to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schut, Antonius G T; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G.

    2015-01-01

    Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty...... in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS......-NPP) and TBWper biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land...

  18. A possible indication of anthropogenic climate change in the wave climate in the central North Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pfizenmayer, A.; Storch, H. von [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

    2000-07-01

    In the central North Sea we observe an increase in the frequency of eastward propagating waves in the recent four decades. To assess the significance of this change the wave statistic for this century was reconstructed with a statistical model. With a linear multivariate technique (redundancy analysis) monthly mean air pressure fields over the North Atlantic and Western Europe were downscaled on the intramonthly frequency of directional wave propagation. When compared against this reference, the recent change appears significant at the 5% level. In order to investigate the reason for this local climatic change, reconstruction was compared with the downscaled results of a transient GCM scenario (ECHAMA-OPYC3) and with results obtained in a high resolution time slice experiment with increased concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Both estimates are qualitatively consistent with the changes observed in the last decades. We suggest that the recent increase of eastward propagation is a local manifestation of anthropogenic global climate change. (orig.) [German] In den letzten Jahrzehnten konnte in der zentralen Nordsee eine Zunahme der Haeufigkeit ostwaerts laufender Wellen beobachtet werden. Mit Hilfe eines statistischen Modells wurde die Wellenstatistik des 20. Jahrhunderts rekonstruiert. Der monatliche mittlere Bodenluftdruck ueber dem Nordatlantik und Westeuropa wurde mit einer linearen multivariaten Technik auf die monatliche Verteilung der Wellenrichtungen regionalisiert. Der Vergleich der juengsten Aenderungen mit dem gesamten Jahrhundert zeigt, dass diese Aenderung im Wellenklima signifikant ist (5-%-Grenze). Zur Untersuchung der Ursachen dieser Veraenderung wurden diese mit den regionalisierten Ergebnissen aus einem transienten Klimaszenario und einem hochaufgeloesten Zeitscheibenexperiment verglichen. Beide Szenarien produzieren bei ansteigenden Treibhausgasen und Aerosolen eine qualitativ konsistente Aenderung. Die Zunahme der oestlich laufenden

  19. Developing Health-Related Indicators of Climate Change: Australian Stakeholder Perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navi, Maryam; Hansen, Alana; Nitschke, Monika; Hanson-Easey, Scott; Pisaniello, Dino

    2017-05-22

    Climate-related health indicators are potentially useful for tracking and predicting the adverse public health effects of climate change, identifying vulnerable populations, and monitoring interventions. However, there is a need to understand stakeholders' perspectives on the identification, development, and utility of such indicators. A qualitative approach was used, comprising semi-structured interviews with key informants and service providers from government and non-government stakeholder organizations in South Australia. Stakeholders saw a need for indicators that could enable the monitoring of health impacts and time trends, vulnerability to climate change, and those which could also be used as communication tools. Four key criteria for utility were identified, namely robust and credible indicators, specificity, data availability, and being able to be spatially represented. The variability of risk factors in different regions, lack of resources, and data and methodological issues were identified as the main barriers to indicator development. This study demonstrates a high level of stakeholder awareness of the health impacts of climate change, and the need for indicators that can inform policy makers regarding interventions.

  20. Changes of benthic fauna in the Kattegat - An indication of climate change at mid-latitudes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Göransson, Peter

    2017-07-01

    Several predictions point to changes in the marine benthic macrofauna associated with climate change, but so far only a few and minor changes have been reported. This study relates observed changes in the species composition to climate change by looking on the past decades in the Kattegat between Denmark and Sweden. A reduction of the total number species and a reduction of species with a northern range parallel to an increase of species with a southern range have been observed. The most likely explanation of the changes is the increase in temperature of the bottom water. Increased temperature could change the species distributions but also decrease primary production which impacts recruitment and growth. Hypoxia and bottom trawling could also act synergistic in this process. A sparse occurrence of previously encountered Arctic-Boreal species and critical foundation species, which gives the area its special character, suggests a change in biodiversity and might therefore be designated as early warning signals of a warmer climate. The northern fauna below the halocline with limited capacity of dispersal and low reproduction potential, can be considered as sensitive with low adaptive capacity to climate change. Therefore, not only tropical and high-latitude species, but also benthos on deep bottoms at mid-latitudes, could be vulnerable to warming. As many species live at the edge of their range in the Kattegat, and also are dependent of distant recruitment, large scale changes will probably be detected here at an early stage. It is important to protect relatively undisturbed reference areas in the Kattegat for future studies, but also for preserving a large number of ecosystem services, biotopes, habitats, and fish species.

  1. Linear trend and abrupt changes of climate indices in the arid region of northwestern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Huaijun; Pan, Yingping; Chen, Yaning; Ye, Zhengwei

    2017-11-01

    In recent years, climate extreme events have caused increasing direct economic and social losses in the arid region of northwestern China. Based on daily temperature and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010, this paper discussed the linear trend and abrupt changes of climate indices. The general evolution was obtained by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF), the Mann-Kendall test, and the distribution-free cumulative sum chart (CUSUM) test. The results are as follows: (1) climate showed a warming trend at annual and seasonal scale, with all temperature indices exhibiting statistically significant changes. The warm indices have increased, with 1.37%days/decade of warm days (TX90p), 0.17 °C/decade of warmest days (TXx) and 1.97 days/decade of warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), respectively. The cold indices have decreased, with - 1.89%days/decade, 0.65 °C/decade and - 0.66 days/decade for cold nights (TN10p), coldest nights (TNn) and cold spell duration indicator (CSDI), respectively. The precipitation indices have also increased significantly, coupled with the changes of magnitude (max 1-day precipitation amount (RX1day)), frequency (rain day (R0.1)), and duration (consecutive dry days (CDD)). (2) Abrupt changes of the annual regional precipitation indices and the minimum temperature indices were observed around 1986, and that of the maximum temperature indices were observed in 1996. (3) The EOF1 indicated the overall coherent distribution for the whole study area, and its principal component (PC1) was also observed, showing a significant linear trend with an abrupt change, which were in accordance with the regional observation results. EOF2 and EOF3 show contrasts between the southern and northern study areas, and between the eastern and western study areas, respectively, whereas no significant tendency was observed for their PCs. Hence, the climate indices have changed significantly, with linear trends and abrupt changes noted for all climate indices

  2. A multi-hazard regional level impact assessment for Europe combining indicators of climatic and non-climatic change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lung, T.; Lavalle, C.; Hiederer, R.; Dosio, A.; Bouwer, L.M.

    2013-01-01

    To better prioritise adaptation strategies to a changing climate that are currently being developed, there is a need for quantitative regional level assessments that are systematic and comparable across multiple weather hazards. This study presents an indicator-based impact assessment framework at

  3. Indicators for Tracking European Vulnerabilities to the Risks of Infectious Disease Transmission due to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan E. Suk

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available A wide range of infectious diseases may change their geographic range, seasonality and incidence due to climate change, but there is limited research exploring health vulnerabilities to climate change. In order to address this gap, pan-European vulnerability indices were developed for 2035 and 2055, based upon the definition vulnerability = impact/adaptive capacity. Future impacts were projected based upon changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, whilst adaptive capacity was developed from the results of a previous pan-European study. The results were plotted via ArcGISTM to EU regional (NUTS2 levels for 2035 and 2055 and ranked according to quintiles. The models demonstrate regional variations with respect to projected climate-related infectious disease challenges that they will face, and with respect to projected vulnerabilities after accounting for regional adaptive capacities. Regions with higher adaptive capacities, such as in Scandinavia and central Europe, will likely be better able to offset any climate change impacts and are thus generally less vulnerable than areas with lower adaptive capacities. The indices developed here provide public health planners with information to guide prioritisation of activities aimed at strengthening regional preparedness for the health impacts of climate change. There are, however, many limitations and uncertainties when modeling health vulnerabilities. To further advance the field, the importance of variables such as coping capacity and governance should be better accounted for, and there is the need to systematically collect and analyse the interlinkages between the numerous and ever-expanding environmental, socioeconomic, demographic and epidemiologic datasets so as to promote the public health capacity to detect, forecast, and prepare for the health threats due to climate change.

  4. Indicators for tracking European vulnerabilities to the risks of infectious disease transmission due to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suk, Jonathan E; Ebi, Kristie L; Vose, David; Wint, Willy; Alexander, Neil; Mintiens, Koen; Semenza, Jan C

    2014-02-21

    A wide range of infectious diseases may change their geographic range, seasonality and incidence due to climate change, but there is limited research exploring health vulnerabilities to climate change. In order to address this gap, pan-European vulnerability indices were developed for 2035 and 2055, based upon the definition vulnerability = impact/adaptive capacity. Future impacts were projected based upon changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, whilst adaptive capacity was developed from the results of a previous pan-European study. The results were plotted via ArcGISTM to EU regional (NUTS2) levels for 2035 and 2055 and ranked according to quintiles. The models demonstrate regional variations with respect to projected climate-related infectious disease challenges that they will face, and with respect to projected vulnerabilities after accounting for regional adaptive capacities. Regions with higher adaptive capacities, such as in Scandinavia and central Europe, will likely be better able to offset any climate change impacts and are thus generally less vulnerable than areas with lower adaptive capacities. The indices developed here provide public health planners with information to guide prioritisation of activities aimed at strengthening regional preparedness for the health impacts of climate change. There are, however, many limitations and uncertainties when modeling health vulnerabilities. To further advance the field, the importance of variables such as coping capacity and governance should be better accounted for, and there is the need to systematically collect and analyse the interlinkages between the numerous and ever-expanding environmental, socioeconomic, demographic and epidemiologic datasets so as to promote the public health capacity to detect, forecast, and prepare for the health threats due to climate change.

  5. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate is the average weather in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. ...

  6. Indigenous community health and climate change: integrating biophysical and social science indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donatuto, Jamie; Grossman, Eric E.; Konovsky, John; Grossman, Sarah; Campbell, Larry W.

    2014-01-01

    This article describes a pilot study evaluating the sensitivity of Indigenous community health to climate change impacts on Salish Sea shorelines (Washington State, United States and British Columbia, Canada). Current climate change assessments omit key community health concerns, which are vital to successful adaptation plans, particularly for Indigenous communities. Descriptive scaling techniques, employed in facilitated workshops with two Indigenous communities, tested the efficacy of ranking six key indicators of community health in relation to projected impacts to shellfish habitat and shoreline archaeological sites stemming from changes in the biophysical environment. Findings demonstrate that: when shellfish habitat and archaeological resources are impacted, so is Indigenous community health; not all community health indicators are equally impacted; and, the community health indicators of highest concern are not necessarily the same indicators most likely to be impacted. Based on the findings and feedback from community participants, exploratory trials were successful; Indigenous-specific health indicators may be useful to Indigenous communities who are assessing climate change sensitivities and creating adaptation plans.

  7. Using large-scale climate indices in climate change ecology studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads Cedergreen; Post, Eric

    2004-01-01

    Ecological responses, El Niño 3.4, Long-term climate variability, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Oscillation, Teleconnection patterns......Ecological responses, El Niño 3.4, Long-term climate variability, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Oscillation, Teleconnection patterns...

  8. Effects of climate change on agroclimatic indices in rainfed wheat production areas of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    mehdi nassiri mahalati

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Despite the importance of all climatic parameters for crop growth and productivity, temperature and rainfall are more crucial compared to others and almost all climatic and agroclimatic indices are based on these two variables. Climate change will lead to variation in agroclimatic indices and evaluation of this variation is a key to study crop response to future climatic conditions. Length of growing period (LGP and rainfall deficit index could be used as indictors for assessment of potential impact of climate change of rainfed systems. To study this impact long-term weather data of main rainfed wheat production areas of Iran were collected. UKMO general circulation model was used for perdiction of climatic parameters of selected stations for years 2025 and 2050 based on pre defined scenarios of IPCC for this target years. LGP, length of dry season and rainfall deficit index were calculated from present data and the generated data for target years. The results showed that LGP based on temperature would be increased in all rainfed areas of country. However, including the water availability in the calculation was led to a lowered LGP. Reduction of LGP for the studied stations was in the range of 8-36 and 19-55 days for years 2025 and 2050, respectively. Rainfall deficit index for 2025 and 2050 was varied, respectively at 8.3-17.7 and 21.1-32.3 mm. It was estimated that under climatic condition of years 2025 and 2050 the cultivated areas in the main rainfed production regions of the country would be reduced by 16-25 and 23-33%, respectively.

  9. Establishment of an indicator concept for the German strategy on adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoenthaler, Konstanze; Andrian-Werburg, Stefan von; Wulfert, Katrin [Bosch und Partner GmbH, Muenchen (Germany); Luthardt, Vera; Kreinsen, Beatrice; Schultz-Sternberg, R.; Hommel, Robert [Hochschule fuer Nachhaltige Entwicklung Eberswalde (Germany)

    2010-11-15

    Even if we succeed in achieving the EU target of reducing global warming to 2 C, it will be absolutely essential to adapt to changing climatic conditions. The greenhouse gases currently present in the atmosphere will influence the climate in coming decades. The day on which it is quite clear which climatic scenario prevails, so that it is possible to model all relevant processes down to regional level, will be the day on which it is too late to adapt to the actual scenario. Our endeavours to adapt to climate change do not mean, however, that we can neglect to take measures in order to reduce the output of greenhouse gases. It is important to remember that on their own, neither adaptation nor mitigation can prevent the grave impacts resulting from climate change. In fact, they complement each other meaningfully thus helping to alleviate the risks of climate change. On 17th December 2008 the German Federal Cabinet adopted the DAS (German Strategy for the Adaptation to Climate Change), (Bundesregierung 2008). The DAS has created the framework for adapting to the consequences of climate change in Germany. First and fore-most, the DAS contributes its guidelines at Federal level, to provide a guideline for agents at other levels. The Strategy lays the foundation for a medium-term process. In conjunction with the individual Federal States and other groups representing various sectors of society, the Strategy provides a step-by-step assessment of the risks of climate change. Furthermore, it states the potential requirements for action, and defines the appropriate goals and potential adaptation measures to be developed and implemented in this process. In due course, the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) will design a comprehensive set of tools to support and advance the DAS. An integral part of this will be the Special Information System 'Adaptation' (FISKA) and an Indicator System to aid adaptation. The latter is one of the key tasks identified for the DAS. As far

  10. Reliability of flipper-banded penguins as indicators of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saraux, Claire; Le Bohec, Céline; Durant, Joël M; Viblanc, Vincent A; Gauthier-Clerc, Michel; Beaune, David; Park, Young-Hyang; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Stenseth, Nils C; Le Maho, Yvon

    2011-01-13

    In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlighted an urgent need to assess the responses of marine ecosystems to climate change. Because they lie in a high-latitude region, the Southern Ocean ecosystems are expected to be strongly affected by global warming. Using top predators of this highly productive ocean (such as penguins) as integrative indicators may help us assess the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems. Yet most available information on penguin population dynamics is based on the controversial use of flipper banding. Although some reports have found the effects of flipper bands to be deleterious, some short-term (one-year) studies have concluded otherwise, resulting in the continuation of extensive banding schemes and the use of data sets thus collected to predict climate impact on natural populations. Here we show that banding of free-ranging king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) impairs both survival and reproduction, ultimately affecting population growth rate. Over the course of a 10-year longitudinal study, banded birds produced 41% [corrected] fewer chicks and had a survival rate 16 percentage points [corrected] lower than non-banded birds, demonstrating a massive long-term impact of banding and thus refuting the assumption that birds will ultimately adapt to being banded. Indeed, banded birds still arrived later for breeding at the study site and had longer foraging trips even after 10 years. One of our major findings is that responses of flipper-banded penguins to climate variability (that is, changes in sea surface temperature and in the Southern Oscillation index) differ from those of non-banded birds. We show that only long-term investigations may allow an evaluation of the impact of flipper bands and that every major life-history trait can be affected, calling into question the banding schemes still going on. In addition, our understanding of the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems based on flipper

  11. Climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1977-02-15

    In spite of man's remarkable advances in technology, ultimately he is still dependent on the Earth's climatic system for food and fresh water. The recent occurrences in certain regions of the world of climatic extremes such as excessive rain or droughts and unseasonably high or low temperatures have led to speculation that a major climatic change is occurring on a global scale. Some point to the recent drop in temperatures in the northern hemisphere as an indication that the Earth is entering a new ice age. Others see a global warming trend that may be due to a build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. An authoritative report on the subject has been prepared by a World Meteorological Organization Panel of Experts on Climatic Change. Excerpts from the report are given. (author)

  12. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-01-01

    In spite of man's remarkable advances in technology, ultimately he is still dependent on the Earth's climatic system for food and fresh water. The recent occurrences in certain regions of the world of climatic extremes such as excessive rain or droughts and unseasonably high or low temperatures have led to speculation that a major climatic change is occurring on a global scale. Some point to the recent drop in temperatures in the northern hemisphere as an indication that the Earth is entering a new ice age. Others see a global warming trend that may be due to a build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. An authoritative report on the subject has been prepared by a World Meteorological Organization Panel of Experts on Climatic Change. Excerpts from the report are given. (author)

  13. Effect of climate change on environmental flow indicators in the narew basin, poland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piniewski, Mikołaj; Laizé, Cédric L R; Acreman, Michael C; Okruszko, Tomasz; Schneider, Christof

    2014-01-01

    Environmental flows-the quantity of water required to maintain a river ecosystem in its desired state-are of particular importance in areas of high natural value. Water-dependent ecosystems are exposed to the risk of climate change through altered precipitation and evaporation. Rivers in the Narew basin in northeastern Poland are known for their valuable river and wetland ecosystems, many of them in pristine or near-pristine condition. The objective of this study was to assess changes in the environmental flow regime of the Narew river system, caused by climate change, as simulated by hydrological models with different degrees of physical characterization and spatial aggregation. Two models were assessed: the river basin scale model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the continental model of water availability and use WaterGAP. Future climate change scenarios were provided by two general circulation models coupled with the A2 emission scenario: IPSL-CM4 and MIROC3.2. To assess the impact of climate change on environmental flows, a method based conceptually on the "range of variability" approach was used. The results indicate that the environmental flow regime in the Narew basin is subject to climate change risk, whose magnitude and spatial variability varies with climate model and hydrological modeling scale. Most of the analyzed sites experienced moderate impacts for the Generic Environmental Flow Indicator (GEFI), the Floodplain Inundation Indicator, and the River Habitat Availability Indicator. The consistency between SWAT and WaterGAP for GEFI was medium: in 55 to 66% of analyzed sites, the models suggested the same level of impact. Hence, we suggest that state-of-the-art, high-resolution, global- or continental-scale models, such as WaterGAP, could be useful tools for water management decision-makers and wetland conservation practitioners, whereas models such as SWAT should serve as a complementary tool for more specific, smaller-scale, local

  14. Developing a reduced-form ensemble of climate change scenarios for Europe and its application to selected impact indicators

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dubrovský, Martin; Trnka, M.; Holman, I. P.; Svobodová, E.; Harrison, P. A.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 128, 3-4 (2015), s. 169-186 ISSN 0165-0009 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD12029 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : global Climate Model * ensemble of models * climate change * climate change scenarios * climate change impact indices * Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.344, year: 2015 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-014-1297-7

  15. Understanding linkages between global climate indices and terrestrial water storage changes over Africa using GRACE products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anyah, R O; Forootan, E; Awange, J L; Khaki, M

    2018-09-01

    Africa, a continent endowed with huge water resources that sustain its agricultural activities is increasingly coming under threat from impacts of climate extremes (droughts and floods), which puts the very precious water resource into jeopardy. Understanding the relationship between climate variability and water storage over the continent, therefore, is paramount in order to inform future water management strategies. This study employs Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data and the higher order (fourth order cumulant) statistical independent component analysis (ICA) method to study the relationship between terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes and five global climate-teleconnection indices; El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) over Africa for the period 2003-2014. Pearson correlation analysis is applied to extract the connections between these climate indices (CIs) and TWS, from which some known strong CI-rainfall relationships (e.g., over equatorial eastern Africa) are found. Results indicate unique linear-relationships and regions that exhibit strong linkages between CIs and TWS. Moreover, unique regions having strong CI-TWS connections that are completely different from the typical ENSO-rainfall connections over eastern and southern Africa are also identified. Furthermore, the results indicate that the first dominant independent components (IC) of the CIs are linked to NAO, and are characterized by significant reductions of TWS over southern Africa. The second dominant ICs are associated with IOD and are characterized by significant increases in TWS over equatorial eastern Africa, while the combined ENSO and MJO are apparently linked to the third ICs, which are also associated with significant increase in TWS changes over both southern Africa, as well as equatorial eastern Africa. Copyright © 2018

  16. Long Series of GNSS Integrated Precipitable Water as a Climate Change Indicator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kruczyk Michał

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates information potential contained in tropospheric delay product for selected International GNSS Service (IGS stations in climatologic research. Long time series of daily averaged Integrated Precipitable Water (IPW can serve as climate indicator. The seasonal model of IPW change has been adjusted to the multi-year series (by the least square method. Author applied two modes: sinusoidal and composite (two or more oscillations. Even simple sinusoidal seasonal model (of daily IPW values series clearly represents diversity of world climates. Residuals in periods from 10 up to 17 years are searched for some long-term IPW trend – self-evident climate change indicator. Results are ambiguous: for some stations or periods IPW trends are quite clear, the following years (or the other station not visible. Method of fitting linear trend to IPW series does not influence considerably the value of linear trend. The results are mostly influenced by series length, completeness and data (e.g. meteorological quality. The longer and more homogenous IPW series, the better chance to estimate the magnitude of climatologic IPW changes.

  17. Bringing indices of species vulnerability to climate change into geographic space: an assessment across the Coronado national forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennifer E. Davison; Sharon Coe; Deborah Finch; Erika Rowland; Megan Friggens; Lisa J. Graumlich

    2012-01-01

    Indices that rate the vulnerability of species to climate change in a given area are increasingly used to inform conservation and climate change adaptation strategies. These species vulnerability indices (SVI) are not commonly associated with landscape features that may affect local-scale vulnerability. To do so would increase their utility by allowing managers to...

  18. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    This paper presented indicators of climate change for British Columbia (BC) with an emphasis on the coastal region. An overview of global effects of climate change was presented, as well as details of BC's current climate change action plan. Indicators examined in the paper for the BC coastal region included long-term trends in air temperature; long-term trends in precipitation; coastal ocean temperatures; sea levels on the BC coast; and the sensitivity of the BC coast to sea level rise and erosion. Data suggested that average air temperatures have become higher in many areas, and that Springtime temperatures have become warmer over the whole province. Winters have become drier in many areas of the province. Sea surface temperature has risen over the entire coast, with the North Coast and central Strait of Georgia showing the largest increases. Deep-water temperatures have also increased in 5 inlets on the South Coast. Results suggested that the direction and spatial pattern of the climate changes reported for British Columbia are consistent with broader trends in North America and the type of changes predicted by climate models for the region. Climate change will likely result in reduced snow-pack in southern BC. An earlier spring freshet on many snow-dominated river systems is anticipated as well as glacial retreat and disappearance. Warmer temperatures in some lakes and rivers are expected, as well as the increased frequency and severity of natural disturbances such as the pine mountain beetle. Large-scale shifts in ecosystems and the loss of certain ecosystems may also occur. BC's current climate plan includes cost effective actions that address GHG emissions and support efficient infrastructure and opportunities for innovation. Management programs for forest and agricultural lands have been initiated, as well as programs to reduce emissions from government operations. Research is also being conducted to understand the impacts of climate change on water

  19. Comparison of Flood Vulnerability Assessments to Climate Change by Construction Frameworks for a Composite Indicator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jong Seok Lee

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available As extreme weather conditions due to climate change can cause deadly flood damages all around the world, a role of the flood vulnerability assessment has become recognized as one of the preemptive measures in nonstructural flood mitigation strategies. Although the flood vulnerability is most commonly assessed by a composite indicator compiled from multidimensional phenomena and multiple conflicting criteria associated with floods, directly or indirectly, it has been often overlooked that the construction frameworks and processes can have a significant influence on the flood vulnerability indicator outcomes. This study has, therefore, compared the flood vulnerability ranking orders for the 54 administrative districts in the Nakdong River Watershed of the Korean Peninsula, ranked from composite indicators by different frameworks and multi-attribute utility functions for combining the three assessment components, such as exposure, sensitivity, and coping, presented in the IPCC Third Assessment Report. The results show that the different aggregation components and utility functions under the same proxy variable system can lead to larger volatility of flood vulnerability rankings than expected. It is concluded that the vulnerability indicator needs to be derived from all three assessment components by a multiplicative utility function for a desirable flood vulnerability assessment to climate change.

  20. Climate change and indicators of probable shifts in the consumption portfolios of dryland farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amjath-Babu, T.S.; Krupnik, Timothy J.; Aravindakshan, Sreejith; Arshad, Muhammad; Kaechele, Harald

    2016-01-01

    Several studies estimate the immediate impact of climate change on agricultural societies in terms of changes in crop yields or farm income, though few studies concentrate on the immediate secondary consequences of climate change. This synthetic analysis uses a set of indicators to assess the

  1. Changes of Some Indices of Low Flow affected by Climate Change in the Tang Panj Sezar Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mozayyan

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Due to the effects of climate change on water resources and hydrology, Changes in low flow as an important part of the water cycle, is of interest to researchers, water managers and users in various fields. Changes in characteristics of low flows affected by climate change may have important effects on various aspects of socioeconomic , environmental, water resources and governmental planning. There are several indices to assess the low flows. The used low flow indices in this research for assessing climate change impacts, is include the extracted indices from flow duration curve (Q70, Q90 and Q95, due to the importance of these indices in understanding and assessing the status of river flow in dry seasons that was investigated in Tang Panj Sezar basin in the west of Iran. Materials and methods: In this paper, the Tang Panj Sezar basin with an area of 9410 km2 was divided into 6 smaller sub catchments and the changes of low flow indices were studied in each of the sub catchments. In order to consider the effects of climate change on low flow, scenarios of temperature and precipitation using 10 atmospheric general circulation models (to investigate the uncertainty of GCMs for both the baseline (1971-2000 and future (2011-2040 under A2 emission scenario was prepared. These scenarios, due to large spatial scale need to downscaling. Therefore, LARS-WG stochastic weather generator model was used. In order to consider the effects of climate change on low flows in the future, a hydrologic model is required to simulate daily flow for 2011-2040. The IHACRES rainfall-runoff model was used for this purpose . After simulation of daily flow using IHACRES, with two time series of daily flow for the observation and future period in each of the sub catchment, the low flow indices were compared. Results Discussion: According to results, across the whole year, the monthly temperature in the future period has increased while rainfall scenarios show

  2. Description of Changes in Climatic Indices in USA over 25 Years (1989 – 2013)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The spatial distribution of long-term changes in climatic factors and its relation with vegetation cover, human health, hydrology and many other ecosystem processes help to identify the consequences of climatic factors changes. In recent studies, the significant changes of select...

  3. Climate indices for vulnerability assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Persson, Gunn; Baerring, Lars; Kjellstroem, Erik; Strandberg, Gustav; Rummuk ainen, Markku

    2007-08-15

    The demand is growing for practical information on climate projections and the impacts expected in different geographical regions and different sectors. It is a challenge to transform the vast amount of data produced in climate models into relevant information for climate change impact studies. Climate indices based on climate model data can be used as means to communicate climate change impact relations. In this report a vast amount of results is presented from a multitude of indices based on different regional climate scenarios. The regional climate scenarios described in this report show many similarities with previous scenarios in terms of general evolution and amplitude of future European climate change. The broad features are manifested in increases in warm and decreases in cold indices. Likewise are presented increases in wet indices in the north and dry indices in the south. Despite the extensive nature of the material presented, it does not cover the full range of possible climate change. We foresee a continued interactive process with stakeholders as well as continued efforts and updates of the results presented in the report.

  4. Open access to Water Indicators for Climate Change Adaptation: proof-of-concept for the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lottle, Lorna; Arheimer, Berit; Gyllensvärd, Frida; Dejong, Fokke; Ludwig, Fulco; Hutjes, Ronald; Martinez, Bernat

    2017-04-01

    Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) is still in the development phase and will combine observations of the climate system with the latest science to develop authoritative, quality-assured information about the past, current and future states of the climate and climate dependent sectors in Europe and worldwide. C3S will provide key indicators on climate change drivers and selected sectorial impacts. The aim of these indicators will be to support adaptation and mitigation. This presentation will show one service already operational as a proof-of-concept of this future climate service. The project "Service for Water Indicators in Climate Change Adaptation" (SWICCA) has developed a sectorial information service for water management. It offers readily available climate-impact data, for open access from the web-site http://swicca.climate.copernicus.eu/. The development is user-driven with the overall goal to speed up the workflow in climate-change adaptation of water management across Europe. The service is co-designed by consultant engineers and agencies in 15 case-studies spread out over the continent. SWICCA has an interactive user-interface, which shows maps and graphs, and facilitates data download in user-friendly formats. In total, more than 900 open dataset are given for various hydrometeorological (and a few socioeconomical) variables, model ensembles, resolutions, time-periods and RCPs. The service offers more than 40 precomputed climate impact indicators (CIIs) and transient time-series of 4 essential climate variables ECVs) with high spatial and temporal resolution. To facilitate both near future and far future assessments, SWICCA provides the indicators for different time ranges; normally, absolute values are given for a reference period (e.g. 1971-2000) and the expected future changes for different 30-year periods, such as early century (2011-2040), mid-century (2041-2070) and end-century (2071-2100). An ensemble of model results is always given to

  5. Testing the Value of Information of Climate Change Indicators that use Earth Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, M. A.

    2012-12-01

    . Such a result would mean that the indicator has a negative value of information. Granted the value of information depends on the intended audience(s), with some groups being able to understand and want more technically sophisticated and detailed information presented as an indicator. However, if the goal of an indicator is to provide information to a wide range of groups, it is essential to assure that these groups have a correct understanding of the indicator, its assumptions, and the ability to use the indicator (as presented or modified) for decision-making contexts. In this talk, I will present the preliminary results of a study that is testing the value of information of a range of climate change indicators, and I will focus on indicators that use earth observations. Such results contribute to a richer understanding of the value of information of indicators, and can shape the development of both individual indicators and systems of indicators, such as the development of the indicator system for the U.S. Global Change Research Program, National Climate Assessment.

  6. A climate profile indicator based comparative analysis of climate change scenarios with regard to maize (Zea mays L.) cultures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dios, N.; Szenteleki, K.; Ferenczy, A.; Petranyl, G. [Corvinus Univ. of Budapest (Hungary). Dept. of Mathematics and Informatics; Hufnagel, L. [Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest (Hungary). Adaptation to Climate Change Research Group

    2009-07-01

    Recent research results let us conclude that climate change might have a significant effect on the yield of wheat, barley, rye, potato and maize, and the borderlines of their area of cultivation might shift 100--150 kilometers to the north. The possible mass occurrence of new aggressive pest, pathogen and weed species in Hungary might also create a problem from plant protection. Maize is one of the most important fodder-plants. Hungary has close to the largest total cultivating area in Europe. Maize is used in many ways, thus being of outstanding economic importance. In Hungary the conditions of maize cultivation are -- except for dry years -- quite favorable in most cultural regions and complex cultivating technologies are available. It also might gain a significant role in the line of new environment-friendly alternative sources of energy. For these reasons, it is important to examine the influence of meteorological factors on maize ecosystems and this examination should include as many climate change scenarios and as long a time series as possible. Using ecological data compiled from scientific literature on pest, pathogen and weed species characteristic in maize cultures in Hungary, we defined monthly climate profile indicators and applied them to complete a comparative analysis of the historical and modelled climate change scenario meteorological data of the city of Debrecen. Our results call attention to a drastic decline of the competitive ability of maize as compared to several C{sub 4} and especially C{sub 3} plants. According to the stricter scenarios, the frequency of potential pest and pathogen damage emergency situations will grow significantly by the end of the century.

  7. Development and assessment of indices to determine stream fish vulnerability to climate change and habitat alteration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sievert, Nicholas A.; Paukert, Craig P.; Tsang, Yin-Phan; Infante, Dana M.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the future impacts of climate and land use change are critical for long-term biodiversity conservation. We developed and compared two indices to assess the vulnerability of stream fish in Missouri, USA based on species environmental tolerances, rarity, range size, dispersal ability and on the average connectivity of the streams occupied by each species. These two indices differed in how environmental tolerance was classified (i.e., vulnerability to habitat alteration, changes in stream temperature, and changes to flow regimes). Environmental tolerance was classified based on measured species responses to habitat alteration, and extremes in stream temperatures and flow conditions for one index, while environmental tolerance for the second index was based on species’ traits. The indices were compared to determine if vulnerability scores differed by index or state listing status. We also evaluated the spatial distribution of species classified as vulnerable to habitat alteration, changes in stream temperature, and change in flow regimes. Vulnerability scores were calculated for all 133 species with the trait association index, while only 101 species were evaluated using the species response index, because 32 species lacked data to analyze for a response. Scores from the trait association index were greater than the species response index. This is likely due to the species response index's inability to evaluate many rare species, which generally had high vulnerability scores for the trait association index. The indices were consistent in classifying vulnerability to habitat alteration, but varied in their classification of vulnerability due to increases in stream temperature and alterations to flow regimes, likely because extremes in current climate may not fully capture future conditions and their influence on stream fish communities. Both indices showed higher mean vulnerability scores for listed species than unlisted species, which provided a coarse

  8. EnviroAtlas: A Spatially Explicit Tool Combining Climate Change Scenarios with Ecosystem Services Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    While discussions of global climate change tend to center on greenhouse gases and seal level rise, other factors, such as technological developments, land and energy use, economics, and population growth all play a critical role in understanding climate change. There is increasi...

  9. EnviroAtlas: A Spatially Explicit Tool Combining Climate Change Scenarios and Ecosystem ServicesIndicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    While discussions of global climate change tend to center on greenhouse gases and sea level rise, other factors, such as technological developments, land and energy use, economics, and population growth all play a critical role in understanding climate change. There is increasin...

  10. Application of Social Vulnerability Indicators to Climate Change for the Southwest Coastal Areas of Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chin-Cheng Wu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The impact of climate change on the coastal zones of Taiwan not only affects the marine environment, ecology, and human communities whose economies rely heavily on marine activities, but also the sustainable development of national economics. The southwest coast is known as the area most vulnerable to climate change; therefore, this study aims to develop indicators to assess social vulnerability in this area of Taiwan using the three dimensions of susceptibility, resistance, and resilience. The modified Delphi method was used to develop nine criteria and 26 indexes in the evaluation, and the analytic hierarchy process method was employed to evaluate the weight of each indicator based on the perspectives of experts collected through questionnaire surveys. The results provide important information pertaining to the vulnerability of the most susceptive regions, the lowest-resistance areas, and the least resilient townships on the southwest coast. The most socially vulnerable areas are plotted based on the present analysis. Experts can consider the vulnerability map provided here when developing adaptation policies. It should be kept in mind that improving the capacities of resistance and resilience is more important than reducing susceptibility in Taiwan.

  11. Regional climate change trends and uncertainty analysis using extreme indices: A case study of Hamilton, Canada

    OpenAIRE

    Razavi, Tara; Switzman, Harris; Arain, Altaf; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2016-01-01

    This study aims to provide a deeper understanding of the level of uncertainty associated with the development of extreme weather frequency and intensity indices at the local scale. Several different global climate models, downscaling methods, and emission scenarios were used to develop extreme temperature and precipitation indices at the local scale in the Hamilton region, Ontario, Canada. Uncertainty associated with historical and future trends in extreme indices and future climate projectio...

  12. Climatic Changes Effects On Spectral Vegetation Indices For Forested Areas Analysis From Satellite Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zoran, M.; Stefan, S.

    2007-01-01

    Climate-induced changes at the land surface may in turn feed back on the climate itself through changes in soil moisture, vegetation, radiative characteristics, and surface-atmosphere exchanges of water vapor. Thresholding based on biophysical variables derived from time trajectories of satellite data is a new approach to classifying forest land cover via remote . sensing .The input data are composite values of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Classification accuracies are function of the class, comparison method and season of the year. The aim of the paper is forest biomass assessment and land-cover changes analysis due to climatic effects

  13. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  14. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    The indicators in this bulletin are part of a national set of environmental indicators designed to provide a profile of the state of Canada's environment and measure progress towards sustainable development. A review of potential impacts on Canada shows that such changes would have wide-ranging implications for its economic sectors, social well-being including human health, and ecological systems. This document looks at the natural state of greenhouse gases which help regulate the Earth's climate. Then it looks at human influence and what is being done about it. The document then examines some indicators: Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use; global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases; and global and Canadian temperature variations

  15. Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012. An indicator-based report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-11-15

    This European Environment Agency (EEA) report presents information on past and projected climate change and related impacts in Europe, based on a range of indicators. The report also assesses the vulnerability of society, human health and ecosystems in Europe and identifies those regions in Europe most at risk from climate change. Furthermore, the report discusses the principle sources of uncertainty for the indicators and notes how monitoring and scenario development can improve our understanding of climate change, its impacts and related vulnerabilities. Some key findings: The last decade (2002-2011) was the warmest on record in Europe, with European land temperature 1.3 deg. C warmer than the pre-industrial average. Various model projections show that Europe could be 2.5-4 deg. C warmer in the later part of the 21st Century, compared to the 1961-1990 average. Heat waves have increased in frequency and length, causing tens of thousands of deaths over the last decade. The projected increase in heat waves could increase the number of related deaths over the next decades, unless societies adapt, the report says. However, cold-related deaths are projected to decrease in many countries. While precipitation is decreasing in southern regions, it is increasing in northern Europe, the report says. These trends are projected to continue. Climate change is projected to increase river flooding, particularly in northern Europe, as higher temperatures intensify the water cycle. However, it is difficult to discern the influence of climate change in flooding data records for the past. River flow droughts appear to have become more severe and frequent in southern Europe. Minimum river flows are projected to decrease significantly in summer in southern Europe but also in many other parts of Europe to varying degrees. The Arctic is warming faster than other regions. Record low sea ice was observed in the Arctic in 2007, 2011 and 2012, falling to roughly half the minimum extent seen

  16. Indicative effects of climate change on groundwater levels in Estonian raised bogs over 50 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Lode

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Analyses of 50-year (1962–2011 monthly air temperature and precipitation data indicated substantial climate change in the locations of two raised bogs (Linnusaare and Männikjärve in central-east Estonia. During recent years the cross-year winter air temperature increased by 1.7 ºC, while the cold-season precipitation increased by 4 mm. The fluctuation amplitude of temperature and precipitation values decreased. Snow depth proved to be the most sensitive variable to winter warming, followed by groundwater levels together with mean and maximum soil frosts. Long-term groundwater levels on the domes of the bogs and in the forested/treed lagg areas were 0.3−0.4 m and 0.4−0.8 m below the soil surface, respectively. Warming caused changes in groundwater level amplitude of 3−22 cm in the bog domes and 3−14 cm in the forested lagg zones. The lowest groundwater levels in ridge-pool ecotopes at Männikjärve rose by 6−10 cm (i.e. these ecotopes became wetter; but the incidence of low groundwater levels increased in most ecotopes, indicating a more general trend towards drier conditions in the bog.

  17. California forests show early indications of both range shifts and local persistence under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Josep M. Serra-Diaz; Janet Franklin; Whalen W. Dillon; Alexandra D. Syphard; Frank W. Davis; Ross K. Meentemeyer

    2015-01-01

    Aim Forest regeneration data provide an early signal of the persistence and migration of tree species, so we investigated whether species shifts due to climate change exhibit a common signal of response or whether changes vary by species. Location California Floristic Province, United...

  18. Climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.

  19. Analysis of long-term changes in extreme climatic indices: a case study of the Mediterranean climate, Marmara Region, Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbasnia, Mohsen; Toros, Hüseyin

    2018-05-01

    This study aimed to analyze extreme temperature and precipitation indices at seven stations in the Marmara Region of Turkey for the period 1961-2016. The trend of temperature indices showed that the warm-spell duration and the numbers of summer days, tropical nights, warm nights, and warm days have increased, while the cold-spell duration and number of ice days, cool nights, and cool days have decreased across the Marmara Region. Additionally, the diurnal temperature range has slightly increased at most of the stations. A majority of stations have shown significant warming trends for warm days and warm nights throughout the study area, whereas warm extremes and night-time based temperature indices have shown stronger trends compared to cold extremes and day-time indices. The analysis of precipitation indices has mostly shown increasing trends in consecutive dry days and increasing trends in annual rainfall, rainfall intensity for inland and urban stations, especially for stations in Sariyer and Edirne, which are affected by a fast rate of urbanization. Overall, a large proportion of study stations have experienced an increase in annual precipitation and heavy precipitation events, although there was a low percentage of results that was significant. Therefore, it is expected that the rainfall events will tend to become shorter and more intense, the occurrence of temperature extremes will become more pronounced in favor of hotter events, and there will be an increase in the atmospheric moisture content over the Marmara Region. This provides regional evidence for the importance of ongoing research on climate change.

  20. How well are the climate indices related to the GRACE-observed total water storage changes in China?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devaraju, B.; Vishwakarma, B.; Sneeuw, N. J.

    2017-12-01

    The fresh water availability over land masses is changing rapidly under the influence of climate change and human intervention. In order to manage our water resources and plan for a better future, we need to demarcate the role of climate change. The total water storage change in a region can be obtained from the GRACE satellite mission. On the other hand, many climate change indicators, for example ENSO, are derived from sea surface temperature. In this contribution we investigate the relationship between the total water storage change over China with the climate indices using statistical time-series decomposition techniques, such as Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess (STL), Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). The anomalies in climate variables, such as sea surface temperature, are responsible for anomalous precipitation and thus an anomalous total water storage change over land. Therefore, it is imperative that we use a GRACE product that can capture anomalous water storage changes with unprecedented accuracy. Since filtering decreases the sensitivity of GRACE products substantially, we use the data-driven method of deviation for recovering the signal lost due to filtering. To this end, we are able to obtain the spatial fingerprint of individual climate index on total water storage change observed over China.

  1. GPS IPW as a Meteorological Parameter and Climate Global Change Indicator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruczyk, M.; Liwosz, T.

    2011-12-01

    Paper focuses on comprehensive investigation of the GPS derived IPW (Integrated Precipitable Water, also IWV) as a geophysical tool. GPS meteorology is now widely acknowledged indirect method of atmosphere sensing. First we demonstrate GPS IPW quality. Most thorough inter-technique comparisons of directly measured IPW are attainable only for some observatories (note modest percentage of GPS stations equipped with meteorological devices). Nonetheless we have managed to compare IPW series derived from GPS tropospheric solutions (ZTD mostly from IGS and EPN solutions) and some independent techniques. IPW values from meteorological sources we used are: radiosoundings, sun photometer and input fields of numerical weather prediction model. We can treat operational NWP models as meteorological database within which we can calculate IWV for all GPS stations independently from network of direct measurements (COSMO-LM model maintained by Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management was tried). Sunphotometer (CIMEL-318, Central Geophysical Observatory IGF PAS, Belsk, Poland) data seems the most genuine source - so we decided for direct collocation of GPS measurements and sunphotometer placing permanent GPS receiver on the roof of Belsk Observatory. Next we analyse IPW as geophysical parameter: IPW demonstrates some physical effects evoked by station location (height and series correlation coefficient as a function of distance) and weather patterns like dominant wind directions (in case of neighbouring stations). Deficiency of surface humidity data to model IPW is presented for different climates. This inadequacy and poor humidity data representation in NWP model extremely encourages investigating information exchange potential between Numerical Model and GPS network. The second and most important aspect of this study concerns long series of IPW (daily averaged) which can serve as climatological information indicator (water vapour role in climate system is hard to

  2. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perthuis, Ch. de; Delbosc, A.

    2009-01-01

    Received ideas about climatic change are a mixture of right and wrong information. The authors use these ideas as starting points to shade light on what we really know and what we believe to know. The book is divided in three main chapters: should we act in front of climatic change? How can we efficiently act? How can we equitably act? For each chapter a series of received ideas is analyzed in order to find those which can usefully contribute to mitigate the environmental, economical and social impacts of climatic change. (J.S.)

  3. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth

  4. Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Katrina E.; Urrego Blanco, Jorge R.; Jonko, Alexandra; Bohn, Theodore J.; Atchley, Adam L.; Urban, Nathan M.; Middleton, Richard S.

    2018-01-01

    The Colorado River Basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology, and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent, and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. We combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube Sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach. We find that snow-dominated regions are much more sensitive to uncertainties in VIC parameters. Although baseflow and runoff changes respond to parameters used in previous sensitivity studies, we discover new key parameter sensitivities. For instance, changes in runoff and evapotranspiration are sensitive to albedo, while changes in snow water equivalent are sensitive to canopy fraction and Leaf Area Index (LAI) in the VIC model. It is critical for improved modeling to narrow uncertainty in these parameters through improved observations and field studies. This is important because LAI and albedo are anticipated to change under future climate and narrowing uncertainty is paramount to advance our application of models such as VIC for water resource management.

  5. Key indicators of air pollution and climate change impacts at forest supersites

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paoletti, E.; Vries, de W.; Mikkelsen, T.N.; Ibrom, A.; Larsen, K.S.; Tuovinen, J.P.; Serengil, Y.; Yurtseven, I.; Wieser, G.; Matyssek, R.

    2013-01-01

    Untangling the complex effects that different air pollution and climate change factors cause to forest ecosystems is challenging. Supersites, that is, comprehensive measurement sites where research and monitoring of the whole soil–plant–atmosphere system can be carried out, are suggested as a

  6. Flood/Typhoon vulnerability indicators of nuclear power plant in South Korea considering climate change impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Gyu Min; Jun, Kyung Soo [Sungkyunkwan Univ., Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Chung, Eun Sung [Seoul National Univ of Science and technology, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Min, Byung Il; Suh, Kyung Suk [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-10-15

    The Republic of Korea lies in the principal course of the typhoon that is occurred to the Pacific Northwest. It has distinct monsoon wind, a rainy period from the East Asian Monsoon locally called 'Changma', typhoon, and while often heavy snowfalls in winter. It belongs to a relatively wet region due to much more precipitation than that of the world average. In the last 10 years, there frequently was a lot of damage due to flooding with typhoon. In particular, the damage was estimated at up to 5,000 billion KRW by the USA in 2002. Lately, after the 9.0 magnitude earthquake and resultant tsunami hit Japan on March 11, 2011, consecutively approached Typhoon Ro ke made a larger threat. Although it fortunately passed without significant impact. That is, not only typhoon and flood are one of a threat to nuclear power plant but also it could lead to overwhelming damage when it overlapped the other accident. Therefore, flood/typhoon vulnerability assessment could provide important information for the safety management of nuclear power plants. This study derived all the feasible indicators and their corresponding weights for a Flood/Typhoon Vulnerability Index (FTVI) to nuclear power plant considering climate change. In addition selection of the candidates and determination of their weights were estimated using a Delphi process, which is an advanced method for opinion measurement.

  7. Collective behaviour of climate indices in the North Pacific air-sea system and its potential relationships with decadal climate changes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Xiao-Juan; Zhi Rong; He Wen-Ping; Gong Zhi-Qiang

    2012-01-01

    A climate network of six climate indices of the North Pacific air-sea system is constructed during the period of 1948-2009.In order to find out the inherent relationship between the intrinsic mechanism of climate index network and the important climate shift,the synchronization behaviour and the coupling behaviour of these indices are investigated.Results indicate that climate network synchronization happened around the beginning of the 1960s,in the middle of the 1970s and at the beginnings of the 1990s and the 2000s separately.These synchronization states were always followed by the decrease of the coupling coefficient.Each synchronization of the network was well associated with the abrupt phase or trend changes of annually accumulated abnormal vaiues of North Pacific sea-surface temperature and 500-hPa height,among which the one that happened in the middle of the 1970s is the most noticeable climate shift.We can also obtain this mysterious shift from the first mode of the empirical orthogonal function of six indices.That is to say,abrupt climate shift in North Pacific air-sea system is not only shown by the phase or trend changes of climate indices,but also night be indicated by the synchronizing and the coupling of climate indices.Furthermore,at the turning point of 1975,there are also abrupt correlation changes in the yearly mode of spatial degree distribution of the sea surface temperature and 500-hPa height in the region of the North Pacific,which further proves the probability of climate index synchronization and coupling shift in air-sea systems.

  8. Collective behaviour of climate indices in the North Pacific air—sea system and its potential relationships with decadal climate changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xiao-Juan; Zhi Rong; He Wen-Ping; Gong Zhi-Qiang

    2012-01-01

    A climate network of six climate indices of the North Pacific air—sea system is constructed during the period of 1948–2009. In order to find out the inherent relationship between the intrinsic mechanism of climate index network and the important climate shift, the synchronization behaviour and the coupling behaviour of these indices are investigated. Results indicate that climate network synchronization happened around the beginning of the 1960s, in the middle of the 1970s and at the beginnings of the 1990s and the 2000s separately. These synchronization states were always followed by the decrease of the coupling coefficient. Each synchronization of the network was well associated with the abrupt phase or trend changes of annually accumulated abnormal values of North Pacific sea-surface temperature and 500-hPa height, among which the one that happened in the middle of the 1970s is the most noticeable climate shift. We can also obtain this mysterious shift from the first mode of the empirical orthogonal function of six indices. That is to say, abrupt climate shift in North Pacific air—sea system is not only shown by the phase or trend changes of climate indices, but also might be indicated by the synchronizing and the coupling of climate indices. Furthermore, at the turning point of 1975, there are also abrupt correlation changes in the yearly mode of spatial degree distribution of the sea surface temperature and 500-hPa height in the region of the North Pacific, which further proves the probability of climate index synchronization and coupling shift in air—sea systems. (geophysics, astronomy, and astrophysics)

  9. Application of relative drought indices in assessing climate-change impacts on drought conditions in Czechia

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dubrovský, Martin; Svoboda, M. D.; Trnka, M.; Hayes, M. J.; Wilhite, D. A.; Žalud, Z.; Hlavinka, P.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 96, 1-2 (2009), s. 155-171 ISSN 0177-798X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/05/2265 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : climate change * drought * GCM scenarios Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.776, year: 2009 http://www.springerlink.com/content/u564082872111877/fulltext.pdf

  10. Prioritizing key resilience indicators to support coral reef management in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClanahan, Tim R; Donner, Simon D; Maynard, Jeffrey A; MacNeil, M Aaron; Graham, Nicholas A J; Maina, Joseph; Baker, Andrew C; Alemu I, Jahson B; Beger, Maria; Campbell, Stuart J; Darling, Emily S; Eakin, C Mark; Heron, Scott F; Jupiter, Stacy D; Lundquist, Carolyn J; McLeod, Elizabeth; Mumby, Peter J; Paddack, Michelle J; Selig, Elizabeth R; van Woesik, Robert

    2012-01-01

    Managing coral reefs for resilience to climate change is a popular concept but has been difficult to implement because the empirical scientific evidence has either not been evaluated or is sometimes unsupportive of theory, which leads to uncertainty when considering methods and identifying priority reefs. We asked experts and reviewed the scientific literature for guidance on the multiple physical and biological factors that affect the ability of coral reefs to resist and recover from climate disturbance. Eleven key factors to inform decisions based on scaling scientific evidence and the achievability of quantifying the factors were identified. Factors important to resistance and recovery, which are important components of resilience, were not strongly related, and should be assessed independently. The abundance of resistant (heat-tolerant) coral species and past temperature variability were perceived to provide the greatest resistance to climate change, while coral recruitment rates, and macroalgae abundance were most influential in the recovery process. Based on the 11 key factors, we tested an evidence-based framework for climate change resilience in an Indonesian marine protected area. The results suggest our evidence-weighted framework improved upon existing un-weighted methods in terms of characterizing resilience and distinguishing priority sites. The evaluation supports the concept that, despite high ecological complexity, relatively few strong variables can be important in influencing ecosystem dynamics. This is the first rigorous assessment of factors promoting coral reef resilience based on their perceived importance, empirical evidence, and feasibility of measurement. There were few differences between scientists' perceptions of factor importance and the scientific evidence found in journal publications but more before and after impact studies will be required to fully test the validity of all the factors. The methods here will increase the feasibility

  11. Prioritizing key resilience indicators to support coral reef management in a changing climate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim R McClanahan

    Full Text Available Managing coral reefs for resilience to climate change is a popular concept but has been difficult to implement because the empirical scientific evidence has either not been evaluated or is sometimes unsupportive of theory, which leads to uncertainty when considering methods and identifying priority reefs. We asked experts and reviewed the scientific literature for guidance on the multiple physical and biological factors that affect the ability of coral reefs to resist and recover from climate disturbance. Eleven key factors to inform decisions based on scaling scientific evidence and the achievability of quantifying the factors were identified. Factors important to resistance and recovery, which are important components of resilience, were not strongly related, and should be assessed independently. The abundance of resistant (heat-tolerant coral species and past temperature variability were perceived to provide the greatest resistance to climate change, while coral recruitment rates, and macroalgae abundance were most influential in the recovery process. Based on the 11 key factors, we tested an evidence-based framework for climate change resilience in an Indonesian marine protected area. The results suggest our evidence-weighted framework improved upon existing un-weighted methods in terms of characterizing resilience and distinguishing priority sites. The evaluation supports the concept that, despite high ecological complexity, relatively few strong variables can be important in influencing ecosystem dynamics. This is the first rigorous assessment of factors promoting coral reef resilience based on their perceived importance, empirical evidence, and feasibility of measurement. There were few differences between scientists' perceptions of factor importance and the scientific evidence found in journal publications but more before and after impact studies will be required to fully test the validity of all the factors. The methods here will

  12. Analysis of climate change indices in relation to wine production: A case study in the Douro region (Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blanco-Ward Daniel

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is of major relevance to wine production as most of the wine-growing regions of the world, in particular the Douro region, are located within relatively narrow latitudinal bands with average growing season temperatures limited to 13–21°C. This study focuses on the incidence of climate variables and indices that are relevant both for climate change detection and for grape production with particular emphasis on extreme events (e.g. cold waves, storms, heat waves. Dynamical downscaling of MPI-ESM-LR global data forced with RCP8.5 climatic scenario is performed with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF model to a regional scale including the Douro valley of Portugal for recent-past (1986–2005 and future periods (2046–2065; 2081–2100. The number, duration and intensity of events are superimposed over critical phenological phases of the vine (dormancy, bud burst, flowering, véraison, and maturity in order to assess their positive or negative implications on wine production in the region. An assessment on the statistical significance of climatic indices, their differences between the recent-past and the future scenarios and the potential impact on wine production is performed. Preliminary results indicate increased climatic stress on the Douro region wine production and increased vulnerability of its vine varieties. These results will provide evidence for future strategies aimed to preserve the high-quality wines in the region and their typicality in a sustainable way.

  13. Ocean climate indicators: A monitoring inventory and plan for tracking climate change in the north-central California coast and ocean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, Benet; Higgason, Kelley; Suchanek, Tom; Largier, John; Stachowicz, Jay; Allen, Sarah; Bograd, Steven; Breen, R.; Gellerman, Holly; Hill, Tessa; Jahncke, Jaime; Johnson, Rebecca L.; Lonhart, Steve I.; Morgan, Steven; Wilkerson, Frances; Roletto, Jan

    2013-01-01

    The impacts of climate change, defined as increasing atmospheric and oceanic carbon dioxide and associated increases in average global temperature and oceanic acidity, have been observed both globally and on regional scales, such as in the North-central California coast and ocean, a region that extends from Point Arena to Point Año Nuevo and includes the Pacific coastline of the San Francisco Bay Area. Because of the high economic and ecological value of the region’s marine environment, the Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary (GFNMS) and other agencies and organizations have recognized the need to evaluate and plan for climate change impacts. Climate change indicators can be developed on global, regional, and site-specific spatial scales, and they provide information about the presence and potential impacts of climate change. While indicators exist for the nation and for the state of California as a whole, no system of ocean climate indicators exist that specifically consider the unique characteristics of the California coast and ocean region. To that end, GFNMS collaborated with over 50 regional, federal, and state natural resource managers, research scientists, and other partners to develop a set of 2 ocean climate indicators specific to this region. A smaller working group of 13 regional partners developed monitoring goals, objectives, strategies, and activities for the indicators and recommended selected species for biological indicators, resulting in the Ocean Climate Indicators Monitoring Inventory and Plan. The working group considered current knowledge of ongoing monitoring, feasibility of monitoring, costs, and logistics in selecting monitoring activities and selected species.

  14. Soil organic matter status in forest soils - possible indicators for climate change induced site shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, Nadine; Thiele-Bruhn, Sören

    2010-05-01

    The quantity and quality of soil organic matter (SOM) and SOM pools and thus the soil properties related to carbon sequestration and water retention are not constant but exhibit considerable variation through changing climate. In total changes in soil fertility and an increase in plant stress are expected. This is relevant for northwest Europe as well and may have economic and social impacts since functions of forests for wood production, groundwater recharge, soil protection and recreation might be affected. The study is done by comparative investigation of selected sites at four watersheds that represent typical forest stands in the region of Luxembourg and South West Germany. The aim is to identify SOM storage and stability in forest soils and its dependence on site properties and interaction with tree stand conditions. According to state of the art fractionation schemes functional C pools in forest soils and their stabilization mechanisms are investigated. In particular, distribution patterns are determined depending on location, tree stand and climatic conditions. Aim is to identify characteristics of SOM stability through fractionation of SOM according to density, particle size and chemical extractability and their subsequent analytical characterization. So far, reasons about the origin, composition and stabilization mechanisms underlying the different SOM pools are not fully understood. Presented are different patterns of distribution of SOM in relation to land use and site conditions, as well as similarities and differences between the different forest soils and results in addition to passive OM pool, which is mainly responsible for long-term stabilization of carbon in soils. These are aligned with selected general' soil properties such as pH, CEC and texture.

  15. To what extent are African Countries Vulnerable to climate change? Lessons from a new indicator of Physical Vulnerability to Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Patrick GUILLAUMONT; Catherine SIMONET

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the vulnerability of African countries to climate change, for which they are not responsible. It is based on an index of structural or physical vulnerability to climate change at the country level, denominated below by the acronym PVCCI. This index has been created recently by the authors, and has been made available on the FERDI website. The design of this index draws both on the environmental literature, and some principles used by the United Nations to measure structura...

  16. Use of two indicators for the socio-environmental risk analysis of Northern Mexico under three climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Santos, Armando; Martínez-Santiago, Santos

    The aims of this study were to (1) find critical areas susceptible to the degradation of natural resources according to local erosion rates and aridity levels, which were used as environmental quality indicators, and (2) identify areas of risk associated with the presence of natural hazards according to three climate change scenarios defined for Mexico. The focus was the municipality of Lerdo, Durango (25.166° to 25.783° N and 103.333° to 103.983° W), which has dry temperate and very dry climates (BSohw and BWhw). From the Global Circulation Models, downscaling techniques for the dynamic modeling of environmental processes using climate data, historical information, and three regionalized climate change scenarios were applied to determine the impacts from laminar wind erosion rates (LWER) and aridity indices (AI). From the historic period to scenario A2 (ScA2, 2010-2039), regarding greenhouse gas emissions, the LWER was predicted to reach 147.2 t ha -1  year -1 , representing a 0.5 m thickness over nearly 30 years and a change in the AI from 9.3 to 8.7. This trend represents an increase in drought for 70.8 % of the study area and could affect 90 % of the agricultural activities and approximately 80 % of the population living in the southeastern Lerdense territory.

  17. Estimating live fuel status by drought indices: an approach for assessing local impact of climate change on fire danger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellizzaro, Grazia; Dubrovsky, Martin; Bortolu, Sara; Ventura, Andrea; Arca, Bachisio; Masia, Pierpaolo; Duce, Pierpaolo

    2014-05-01

    Mediterranean shrubs are an important component of both Mediterranean vegetation communities and understorey vegetation. They also constitute the surface fuels primarily responsible for the ignition and the spread of wildland fires in Mediterranean forests. Although fire spread and behaviour are dependent on several factors, the water content of live fuel plays an important role in determining fire occurrence and spread, especially in the Mediterranean shrubland, where live fuel is often the main component of the available fuel which catches fire. According to projections on future climate, an increase in risk of summer droughts is likely to take place in Southern Europe. More prolonged drought seasons induced by climatic changes are likely to influence general flammability characteristics of fuel, affecting load distribution in vegetation strata, floristic composition, and live and dead fuel ratio. In addition, variations in precipitation and mean temperature could directly affect fuel water status, and consequently flammability, and length of critical periods of high ignition danger for Mediterranean ecosystems. The main aim of this work was to propose a methodology for evaluating possible impacts of future climate change on moisture dynamic and length of fire danger period at local scale. Specific objectives were: i) evaluating performances of meteorological drought indices in describing seasonal pattern of live fuel moisture content (LFMC), and ii) simulating the potential impacts of future climate changes on the duration of fire danger period. Measurements of LFMC seasonal pattern of three Mediterranean shrub species were performed in North Western Sardinia (Italy) for 8 years. Seasonal patterns of LFMC were compared with the Drought Code of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index and the Keetch-Byram Drought Index. Analysis of frequency distribution and cumulative distribution curves were carried out in order to evaluate performance of codes and to identify

  18. A healthy turn in urban climate change policies; European city workshop proposes health indicators as policy integrators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keune, Hans; Ludlow, David; van den Hazel, Peter; Randall, Scott; Bartonova, Alena

    2012-06-28

    The EU FP6 HENVINET project reviewed the potential relevance of a focus on climate change related health effects for climate change policies at the city region level. This was undertaken by means of a workshop with both scientists, city representatives from several EU-countries, representatives of EU city networks and EU-experts. In this paper we introduce some important health related climate change issues, and discuss the current city policies of the participating cities. The workshop used a backcasting format to analyse the future relevance of a health perspective, and the main benefits and challenges this would bring to urban policy making. It was concluded that health issues have an important function as indicators of success for urban climate change policies, given the extent to which climate change policies contribute to public health and as such to quality of life. Simultaneously the health perspective may function as a policy integrator in that it can combine several related policy objectives, such as environmental policies, health policies, urban planning and economic development policies, in one framework for action. Furthermore, the participants to the workshop considered public health to be of strategic importance in organizing public support for climate change policies. One important conclusion of the workshop was the view that the connection of science and policy at the city level is inadequate, and that the integration of scientific knowledge on climate change related health effects and local policy practice is in need of more attention. In conclusion, the workshop was viewed as a constructive advance in the process of integration which hopefully will lead to ongoing cooperation. The workshop had the ambition to bring together a diversity of actor perspectives for exchange of knowledge and experiences, and joint understanding as a basis for future cooperation. Next to the complementarities in experience and knowledge, the mutual critical reflection

  19. Climatic changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    According to Cleo Paskal climatic changes are environmental changes. They are global, but their impact is local, and manifests them selves in the landscape, in our cities, in open urban spaces, and in everyday life. The landscape and open public spaces will in many cases be the sites where...... spaces. From Henri LeFebvre’s thinking we learn that the production of space is a feed back loop, where the space is constructed when we attach meaning to it, and when the space offers meaning to us. Spatial identity is thus not the same as identifying with space. Without indentifying with space, space...... doesn’t become place, and thus not experienced as a common good. Many Danish towns are situated by the sea; this has historically supported a strong spatial, functional and economically identity of the cities, with which people have identified. Effects of globalization processes and a rising sea level...

  20. Climate and land-use change impact on faecal indicator bacteria in a temperate maritime catchment (the River Conwy, Wales)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bussi, Gianbattista; Whitehead, Paul G.; Thomas, Amy R. C.; Masante, Dario; Jones, Laurence; Jack Cosby, B.; Emmett, Bridget A.; Malham, Shelagh K.; Prudhomme, Christel; Prosser, Havard

    2017-10-01

    Water-borne pathogen contamination from untreated sewage effluent and runoff from farms is a serious threat to the use of river water for drinking and commercial purposes, such as downstream estuarine shellfish industries. In this study, the impact of climate change and land-use change on the presence of faecal indicator bacteria in freshwater was evaluated, through the use of a recently-developed catchment-scale pathogen model. The River Conwy in Wales has been used as a case-study, because of the large presence of livestock in the catchment and the importance of the shellfish harvesting activities in its estuary. The INCA-Pathogens catchment model has been calibrated through the use of a Monte-Carlo-based technique, based on faecal indicator bacteria measurements, and then driven by an ensemble of climate projections obtained from the HadRM3-PPE model (Future Flow Climate) plus four land-use scenarios (current land use, managed ecosystem, abandonment and agricultural intensification). The results show that climate change is not expected to have a very large impact on average river flow, although it might alter its seasonality. The abundance of faecal indicator bacteria is expected to decrease in response to climate change, especially during the summer months, due to reduced precipitation, causing reduced runoff, and increased temperature, which enhances the bacterial die-off processes. Land-use change can also have a potentially large impact on pathogens. The "managed ecosystems" scenario proposed in this study can cause a reduction of 15% in average water faecal indicator bacteria and up to 30% in the 90th percentile of water faecal indicator bacteria, mainly due to the conversion of pasture land into grassland and the expansion of forest land. This study provides an example of how to assess the impacts of human interventions on the landscape, and what may be the extent of their effects, for other catchments where the human use of the natural resources in the

  1. Climate change impacts detection in dry forested ecosystem as indicated by vegetation cover change in -Laikipia, of Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    M'mboroki, Kiambi Gilbert; Wandiga, Shem; Oriaso, Silas Odongo

    2018-03-29

    The objective of the study was to detect and identify land cover changes in Laikipia County of Kenya that have occurred during the last three decades. The land use types of study area are six, of which three are the main and the other three are the minor. The main three, forest, shrub or bush land and grassland, changed during the period, of which grasslands reduced by 5864 ha (40%), forest by 3071 ha (24%) and shrub and bush land increased by 8912 ha (43%). The other three minor land use types were bare land which had reduced by 238 ha (45%), river bed vegetation increased by 209 ha (72%) and agriculture increased by 52 ha (600%) over the period decades. Differences in spatiotemporal variations of vegetation could be largely attributed to the effects of climate factors, anthropogenic activities and their interactions. Precipitation and temperature have been demonstrated to be the key climate factors for plant growth and vegetation development where rainfall decreased by 200 mm and temperatures increased by 1.5 °C over the period. Also, the opinion of the community on the change of land use and management was attributed to climate change and also adaptation strategies applied by the community over time. For example unlike the common understanding that forest resources utilisation increases with increasing human population, Mukogodo dry forested ecosystem case is different in that the majority of the respondents (78.9%) reported that the forest resource use was more in that period than now and also a similar majority (74.2%) had the same opinion that forest resource utilisation was low compared to last 30 years. In Yaaku community, change impacts were evidenced and thus mitigation measures suggested to address the impacts which included the following: controlled bush management and indigenous grass reseeding programme were advocated to restore original grasslands, and agricultural (crop farming) activities are carried out in designated areas outside the

  2. Remotely-Sensed Urban Wet-Landscapes AN Indicator of Coupled Effects of Human Impact and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Wei

    2016-06-01

    This study proposes the concept of urban wet-landscapes (loosely-defined wetlands) as against dry-landscapes (mainly impervious surfaces). The study is to examine whether the dynamics of urban wet-landscapes is a sensitive indicator of the coupled effects of the two major driving forces of urban landscape change - human built-up impact and climate (precipitation) variation. Using a series of satellite images, the study was conducted in the Kansas City metropolitan area of the United States. A rule-based classification algorithm was developed to identify fine-scale, hidden wetlands that could not be appropriately detected based on their spectral differentiability by a traditional image classification. The spatial analyses of wetland changes were implemented at the scales of metropolitan, watershed, and sub-watershed as well as based on the size of surface water bodies in order to reveal urban wetland change trends in relation to the driving forces. The study identified that wet-landscape dynamics varied in trend and magnitude from the metropolitan, watersheds, to sub-watersheds. The study also found that increased precipitation in the region in the past decades swelled larger wetlands in particular while smaller wetlands decreased mainly due to human development activities. These findings suggest that wet-landscapes, as against the dry-landscapes, can be a more effective indicator of the coupled effects of human impact and climate change.

  3. REMOTELY-SENSED URBAN WET-LANDSCAPES: AN INDICATOR OF COUPLED EFFECTS OF HUMAN IMPACT AND CLIMATE CHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Ji

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes the concept of urban wet-landscapes (loosely-defined wetlands as against dry-landscapes (mainly impervious surfaces. The study is to examine whether the dynamics of urban wet-landscapes is a sensitive indicator of the coupled effects of the two major driving forces of urban landscape change – human built-up impact and climate (precipitation variation. Using a series of satellite images, the study was conducted in the Kansas City metropolitan area of the United States. A rule-based classification algorithm was developed to identify fine-scale, hidden wetlands that could not be appropriately detected based on their spectral differentiability by a traditional image classification. The spatial analyses of wetland changes were implemented at the scales of metropolitan, watershed, and sub-watershed as well as based on the size of surface water bodies in order to reveal urban wetland change trends in relation to the driving forces. The study identified that wet-landscape dynamics varied in trend and magnitude from the metropolitan, watersheds, to sub-watersheds. The study also found that increased precipitation in the region in the past decades swelled larger wetlands in particular while smaller wetlands decreased mainly due to human development activities. These findings suggest that wet-landscapes, as against the dry-landscapes, can be a more effective indicator of the coupled effects of human impact and climate change.

  4. Changing climate, changing frames

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vink, Martinus J.; Boezeman, Daan; Dewulf, Art; Termeer, Catrien J.A.M.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► We show development of flood policy frames in context of climate change attention. ► Rising attention on climate change influences traditional flood policy framing. ► The new framing employs global-scale scientific climate change knowledge. ► With declining attention, framing disregards climate change, using local knowledge. ► We conclude that frames function as sensemaking devices selectively using knowledge. -- Abstract: Water management and particularly flood defence have a long history of collective action in low-lying countries like the Netherlands. The uncertain but potentially severe impacts of the recent climate change issue (e.g. sea level rise, extreme river discharges, salinisation) amplify the wicked and controversial character of flood safety policy issues. Policy proposals in this area generally involve drastic infrastructural works and long-term investments. They face the difficult challenge of framing problems and solutions in a publicly acceptable manner in ever changing circumstances. In this paper, we analyse and compare (1) how three key policy proposals publicly frame the flood safety issue, (2) the knowledge referred to in the framing and (3) how these frames are rhetorically connected or disconnected as statements in a long-term conversation. We find that (1) framings of policy proposals differ in the way they depict the importance of climate change, the relevant timeframe and the appropriate governance mode; (2) knowledge is selectively mobilised to underpin the different frames and (3) the frames about these proposals position themselves against the background of the previous proposals through rhetorical connections and disconnections. Finally, we discuss how this analysis hints at the importance of processes of powering and puzzling that lead to particular framings towards the public at different historical junctures

  5. Cladocera from bottom deposits as an indicator of changes in climate and ecological conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frolova, L. A.

    2018-01-01

    Diatoms, pollen, and remains of higher vegetation are used as indicator groups in paleoecological studies. Using certain groups of zoological indicators such as planktonic and benthic organisms (Ostracoda, Cladocera, Chironomidae) has recently become popular in paleolimnology and paleoecology. This study aims to estimate the possibilities, benefits, problems and prospects of Cladocera use in the composition of zoothanatocoenosis of lakes’ sediments as one of the biological indicators in paleoenvironmental studies and paleoreconstructions of abiotic conditions of the past.

  6. Framework for Probabilistic Projections of Energy-Relevant Streamflow Indicators under Climate Change Scenarios for the U.S.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wagener, Thorsten [Univ. of Bristol (United Kingdom); Mann, Michael [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States); Crane, Robert [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States)

    2014-04-29

    This project focuses on uncertainty in streamflow forecasting under climate change conditions. The objective is to develop easy to use methodologies that can be applied across a range of river basins to estimate changes in water availability for realistic projections of climate change. There are three major components to the project: Empirical downscaling of regional climate change projections from a range of Global Climate Models; Developing a methodology to use present day information on the climate controls on the parameterizations in streamflow models to adjust the parameterizations under future climate conditions (a trading-space-for-time approach); and Demonstrating a bottom-up approach to establishing streamflow vulnerabilities to climate change. The results reinforce the need for downscaling of climate data for regional applications, and further demonstrates the challenges of using raw GCM data to make local projections. In addition, it reinforces the need to make projections across a range of global climate models. The project demonstrates the potential for improving streamflow forecasts by using model parameters that are adjusted for future climate conditions, but suggests that even with improved streamflow models and reduced climate uncertainty through the use of downscaled data, there is still large uncertainty is the streamflow projections. The most useful output from the project is the bottom-up vulnerability driven approach to examining possible climate and land use change impacts on streamflow. Here, we demonstrate an inexpensive and easy to apply methodology that uses Classification and Regression Trees (CART) to define the climate and environmental parameters space that can produce vulnerabilities in the system, and then feeds in the downscaled projections to determine the probability top transitioning to a vulnerable sate. Vulnerabilities, in this case, are defined by the end user.

  7. Witnesses of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-11-01

    After having evoked the process of climate change, the effect of greenhouse gas emissions, the evolution of average temperatures in France since 1900, and indicated the various interactions and impacts of climate change regarding air quality, water resources, food supply, degradation and loss of biodiversity, deforestation, desertification, this publication, while quoting various testimonies (from a mountain refuge guardian, a wine maker, a guide in La Reunion, an IFREMER bio-statistician engineer, and a representative of health professionals), describes the various noticed impacts of climate change on the environment in mountain chains, on agriculture, on sea level rise, on overseas biodiversity, and on health

  8. Developing a reduced-form ensemble of climate change scenarios for Europe and its application to selected impact indicators

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dubrovský, Martin; Trnka, Miroslav; Holman, I. P.; Svobodová, Eva; Harrison, P. A.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 128, 3-4 (2015), s. 169-186 ISSN 0165-0009 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : adaptation * design * climate change * Europe * global climate models Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.344, year: 2015

  9. Understanding Climate Change Impacts in a Cholera Endemic Megacity: Disease Trends, Hydroclimatic Indicators and Near Future-Term Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S. S.; Hasan, M. A.; Serman, E. A.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

    2015-12-01

    The last three decades of surveillance data shows a drastic increase of cholera prevalence in the largest cholera-endemic city in the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh. While an endemic trend is getting stronger in the dry season, the post-monsoon season shows increased variability and is epidemic in nature. The pre-monsoon dry season is becoming the dominant cholera season of the year, followed by monsoon flood related propagation in later months of the year. Although the heavily populated and rapidly urbanizing Dhaka region has experienced noticeable shifts in pre monsoon temperature and precipitation patterns and subsequent monsoon variations, to date, there has not been any systematic study on linking the long-term disease trends with observed changes in hydroclimatic indicators. Here, we focus on the past 30-year dynamics of urban cholera prevalence in Dhaka with changes in climatic or anthropogenic forcings to develop projections for the next 30-year period. We focus on the dry and the wet season indicators individually, and develop trends of maximum rainfall intensity, lowest rainfall totals in the pre-monsoon period, number of consecutive dry days, number of wet days, and number of rainy days with greater than 500mm rainfall using a recently developed gridded data product - and compare with regional hydrology, flooding, water usage, changes in distribution systems, population growth and density in urban settlements, and frequency of natural disasters. We then use a bias correction method to develop the next 30 years projections of CMIP5 Regional Climate Model outputs and impacts on cholera prevalence using a probabilistic forecasting approach.

  10. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rind, D.

    1990-01-01

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century

  11. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rind, D.

    1991-01-01

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century. 19 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

  12. Climate change - global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciconkov, Risto

    2001-01-01

    An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

  13. Climate indicators for Italy: calculation and dissemination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desiato, F.; Fioravanti, G.; Fraschetti, P.; Perconti, W.; Toreti, A.

    2011-05-01

    In Italy, meteorological data necessary and useful for climate studies are collected, processed and archived by a wide range of national and regional institutions. As a result, the density of the stations, the length and frequency of the observations, the quality control procedures and the database structure vary from one dataset to another. In order to maximize the use of those data for climate knowledge and climate change assessments, a computerized system for the collection, quality control, calculation, regular update and rapid dissemination of climate indicators was developed. The products publicly available through a dedicated web site are described, as well as an example of climate trends estimates over Italy, based on the application of statistical models on climate indicators from quality-checked and homogenised time series.

  14. Long-term forest resilience to climate change indicated by mortality, regeneration, and growth in semiarid southern Siberia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Chongyang; Liu, Hongyan; Anenkhonov, Oleg A; Korolyuk, Andrey Yu; Sandanov, Denis V; Balsanova, Larisa D; Naidanov, Bulat B; Wu, Xiuchen

    2017-06-01

    Several studies have documented that regional climate warming and the resulting increase in drought stress have triggered increased tree mortality in semiarid forests with unavoidable impacts on regional and global carbon sequestration. Although climate warming is projected to continue into the future, studies examining long-term resilience of semiarid forests against climate change are limited. In this study, long-term forest resilience was defined as the capacity of forest recruitment to compensate for losses from mortality. We observed an obvious change in long-term forest resilience along a local aridity gradient by reconstructing tree growth trend and disturbance history and investigating postdisturbance regeneration in semiarid forests in southern Siberia. In our study, with increased severity of local aridity, forests became vulnerable to drought stress, and regeneration first accelerated and then ceased. Radial growth of trees during 1900-2012 was also relatively stable on the moderately arid site. Furthermore, we found that smaller forest patches always have relatively weaker resilience under the same climatic conditions. Our results imply a relatively higher resilience in arid timberline forest patches than in continuous forests; however, further climate warming and increased drought could possibly cause the disappearance of small forest patches around the arid tree line. This study sheds light on climate change adaptation and provides insight into managing vulnerable semiarid forests. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Greenland climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Swingedouw, Didier; Landais, Amaëlle

    2012-01-01

    Climate archives available from deep-sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that during the last decade (2000s......), atmospheric and sea-surface temperatures are reaching levels last encountered millennia ago when northern high latitude summer insolation was higher due to a different orbital configuration. Concurrently, records from lake sediments in southern Greenland document major environmental and climatic conditions...... regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. The magnitude and rate of future changes in Greenland temperature, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, may be faster than any past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Projections indicate that within one century Greenland may...

  16. Climate changes your business

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Businesses face much bigger climate change costs than they realise. That is the conclusion of Climate Changes Your Business. The climate change risks that companies should be paying more attention to are physical risks, regulatory risks as well as risk to reputation and the emerging risk of litigation, says the report. It argues that the risks associated with climate change tend to be underestimated

  17. Understanding climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fellous, J.L.; Gautier, C.; Andre, J.C.; Balstad, R.; Boucher, O.; Brasseur, G.; Chahine, M.T.; Chanin, M.L.; Ciais, P.; Corell, W.; Duplessy, J.C.; Hourcade, J.C.; Jouzel, J.; Kaufman, Y.J.; Laval, K.; Le Treut, H.; Minster, J.F.; Moore, B. III; Morel, P.; Rasool, S.I.; Remy, F.; Smith, R.C.; Somerville, R.C.J.; Wood, E.F.; Wood, H.; Wunsch, C.

    2007-01-01

    Climatic change is gaining ground and with no doubt is stimulated by human activities. It is therefore urgent to better understand its nature, importance and potential impacts. The chapters of this book have been written by US and French experts of the global warming question. After a description of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, GIEC in French) consensus, they present the past and present researches on each of the main component of the climate system, on the question of climatic change impacts and on the possible answers. The conclusion summarizes the results of each chapter. Content: presentation of the IPCC; greenhouse effect, radiation balance and clouds; atmospheric aerosols and climatic change; global water cycle and climate; influence of climatic change on the continental hydrologic cycle; ocean and climate; ice and climate; global carbon cycle; about some impacts of climatic change on Europe and the Atlantic Ocean; interaction between atmospheric chemistry and climate; climate and society, the human dimension. (J.S.)

  18. CLIMATE CHANGE, Change International Negociations?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Xiaosheng

    2009-01-01

    @@ Climate change is one of key threats to human beings who have to deal with.According to Bali Action Plan released after the 2007 Bali Climate Talk held in Indonesia,the United Nations Framework on Climate Change(UNFCCC) has launched a two-year process to negotiate a post-2012 climate arrangement after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 and the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference will seal a final deal on post-2012 climate regime in December,2009.For this,the United Nation Chief Ban Ki Moon called 2009"the year ofclimate change".

  19. Increasing Carbon Loss from Snow-Scoured Alpine Tundra in the Colorado Rocky Mountains: An Indicator of Climate Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowles, J. F.; Blanken, P.; Williams, M. W.; Lawrence, C. R.

    2015-12-01

    We used the eddy covariance method to continuously measure the net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide for seven years from a snow-scoured alpine tundra meadow on Niwot Ridge in Colorado, USA that may be underlain by sporadic permafrost. On average, the alpine tundra was a net annual source of 232 g C m-2 to the atmosphere, and the source strength of this ecosystem increased over the length of the seven year period due to both reduced carbon uptake during the growing season and increased respiration throughout the winter. To constrain the contribution of permafrost degradation to observed carbon emissions, we also measured the radiocarbon content of actively cycling, occluded, and mineral soil carbon pools across a meso-scale soil moisture and (possible) permafrost gradient within this meadow, as well as the seasonal radiocarbon content of soil respiration. These data suggest that wintertime soil respiration is limited to patches of wet meadow tundra that may be associated with permafrost. Furthermore, soil respiration from one of these locations indicates preferential turnover of a relatively slow cycling carbon pool during the winter. Given that summer air temperatures and positive degree days have been increasing on Niwot Ridge since the middle of the 20th century, this research suggests that an alpine tundra permafrost-respiration feedback to climate change, similar to that observed in arctic tundra ecosystems, may be currently underway.

  20. Climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Kolshus, Hans H.; Torvanger, Asbjoern

    2000-08-01

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

  1. Climate Change Indicator for Hazard Identification of Indian North West Coast Marine Environment Using Synthetic Aperture Radar (sar)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gambheer, Phani Raj

    2012-07-01

    Stormwater runoff, Petroleum Hydrocarbon plumes are found abundantly near coastal cities, coastal population settlements especially in developing nations as more than half the world's human population. Ever increasing coastal populations and development in coastal areas have led to increased loading of toxic substances, nutrients and pathogens. These hazards cause deleterious effects on the population in many ways directly or indirectly which lead to algal blooms, hypoxia, beach closures, and damage to coastal fisheries. Hence these pollution hazards are important and the coastal administrations and people need to be aware of such a danger lurking very close to them. These hazards due to their small size, dynamic and episodic in nature are difficult to be visualized or to sample using in-situ traditional scientific methods. Natural obstructions like cloud cover and complex coastal circulations can hinder to detect and monitor such occurrences in the selected areas chosen for observations. This study takes recourse to Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery because the pollution hazards are easily detectable as surfactants are deposited on the sea surface, along with nutrients and pathogens, smoothing capillary and small gravity waves to produce areas of reduced backscatter compared with surrounding ocean. These black spots can be termed as `Ecologic Indicator' and formed probably due to stronger thermal stratification, a deepening event of thermocline. SAR imagery that delivers useful data better than others regardless of darkness or cloud cover, should be made as an important observational tool for assessment and monitoring marine pollution hazards in the areas close to coastal regions. Till now the effects of climate change, sea level rise and global warming seems to have not affected the coastal populace of India in intrusions of sea water but it takes significance to the human health as the tides dominate these latitudes with bringing these polluted waters. KEY

  2. Drastic shifts in the Levant hydroclimate during the last interglacial indicate changes in the tropical climate and winter storm tracks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiro, Y.; Goldstein, S. L.; Kushnir, Y.; Lazar, B.; Stein, M.

    2017-12-01

    Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e was a warm interglacial with where with significantly varying insolation and hence varied significantly throughout this time suggesting highly variable climate. The ICDP Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project recovered a 460m record of the past 220ka, reflecting the variable climate along MIS 5e. This time interval is reflected by alternating halite and detritus sequences, including 20m of halite-free detritus during the peak insolation at 125 ka. The Dead Sea salt budget indicates that the Levant climate was extremely arid when halite formed, reaching 20% of the present runoff. The halite-free detritus layer reflects increased precipitation to levels similar to present day, assuming similar spatial and temporal rainfall patterns. However, the 234U/238U activity ratio in the lake, reflected by authigenic minerals (aragonite, gypsum and halite), shifts from values of 1.5 (reflecting the Jordan River, the present main water source) down to 1.3 at 125-122ka during the MIS5e insolation peak and 1.0 at 118-116ka. The low 234U/238U reflects increased flash floods and eastern water sources (234U/238U 1.05-1.2) from the drier part of the watershed in the desert belt. The intermediate 234U/238U of 1.3 suggests that the Jordan River, fed from Mediterranean-sourced storm tracks, continued to flow along with an increase in southern and eastern water sources. NCAR CCSM3 climate model runs for 125ka indicate increases in both Summer and Winter precipitation. The drastic decrease to 234U/238U 1.0 occurs during the driest period, indicating a near shutdown of Jordan River flow, and water input only through flash floods and southern and eastern sources. The 120ka climate model runs shows a decrease in Winter and increase in Fall precipitation as a result of an increased precipitation in the tropics. The extreme aridity, associated with increased flooding is similar to patterns expected due to future warming. The increase in aridity is the result of expansion

  3. Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Home / News / Fact sheets / Detail WHO /A. Craggs Climate change and health 1 February 2018 ","datePublished":"2018-02- ... in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution. Climate change Over the last 50 years, human activities – particularly ...

  4. Climate Change and Malaria

    OpenAIRE

    Goklany;, I. M.

    2004-01-01

    Sir David A. King's claim that "Climate change is the most severe problem that we are facing today—more serious even than the threat of terrorism" "Climate change is the most severe problem that we are facing today—more serious even than the threat of terrorism" ("Climate change

  5. Uncertainty and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Berliner, L. Mark

    2003-01-01

    Anthropogenic, or human-induced, climate change is a critical issue in science and in the affairs of humankind. Though the target of substantial research, the conclusions of climate change studies remain subject to numerous uncertainties. This article presents a very brief review of the basic arguments regarding anthropogenic climate change with particular emphasis on uncertainty.

  6. Trees and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Dettenmaier, Megan; Kuhns, Michael; Unger, Bethany; McAvoy, Darren

    2017-01-01

    This fact sheet describes the complex relationship between forests and climate change based on current research. It explains ways that trees can mitigate some of the risks associated with climate change. It details the impacts that forests are having on the changing climate and discuss specific ways that trees can be used to reduce or counter carbon emissions directly and indirectly.

  7. Climate for Change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    Cities rather than national governments take the lead in acting on climate change. Several cities have voluntarily created climate change plans to prevent and prepare for the effects of climate change. In the literature climate change has been examined as a multilevel governance area taking place...... around international networks. Despite the many initiatives taken by cities, existing research shows that the implementation of climate change actions is lacking. The reasons for this scarcity in practice are limited to general explanations in the literature, and studies focused on explaining...... the constraints on climate change planning at the local level are absent. To understand these constraints, this PhD thesis investigates the institutional dynamics that influence the process of the integration of climate change into planning practices at the local level in Denmark. The examination of integration...

  8. Our changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kandel, R.

    1990-01-01

    The author presents an overview of the changing climate. Attention is focused on the following: meteorology; weather; climate anomalies; changes in atmospheric composition and global warming; ozone; mathematical models; and climate and politics. In its conclusion, it asks researchers to stay out of a game in which, ultimately, neither science nor politics stands to gain anything

  9. Climatic Change. Human Influence?

    OpenAIRE

    Gonçalves, Dionísio; Leite, Solange; Ribeiro, A.C.; Figueiredo, Tomás de

    2016-01-01

    We begin by presenting the functioning of the Climate System and the variety of climates that occurs on the surface of the globe. We analyze climate change based on the sun's orbital parameters and other causes, focusing on the current interglacial period and the influence it had on the development of human societies. The following text looks on developing of the climate of the last 1000 years, with considerations about the warm medieval climate, the little ice age, the recovery...

  10. Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...

  11. Reliability and usability of tourism climate indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghislain Dubois

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Tourism climate indices (TCI are commonly used to describe the climate conditions suitable for tourism activities, from the planning, investment or daily operations perspectives. A substantial amount of research has been carried out, in particular with respect to new indices formulae adapted to specific tourism products, and parameters and their weighting, taking into account surveys on the stated preferences of tourists, especially in terms of comfort. This paper illustrates another field of research, which seeks to better understand the different sources of uncertainty associated with indices. Indeed, slight differences in formula thresholds, variations in computation methods, and also the use of multimodel ensembles create nuances that affect the ways in which indices projections are usually presented. Firstly, we assess the impact of differences in preference surveys on the definition of indices thresholds, in particular for thermal comfort. Secondly, we compare computation methods for France, showing the need to better specify detailed data sources and their use to ensure the comparability of results. Thirdly, using multimodel ensembles for the Mediterranean basin, we assess the uncertainty inherent in long-term projections, which are used in modelling the economic impact of climate change. This paper argues in favour of a more cautious use of tourism comfort indices, with more consideration given to the robustness of data (validation, debiasing, uncertainty assessment, etc. and users’ needs, from the climate services perspective.

  12. Indicators of Ecological Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-03-01

    H. 1990. Strategy for monitoring the effects of land use change on atmospheric CO2 concentrations . In Proceedings of “Global Natural Resource...Working Group in Santiago , Chile , February 1995, ten nations agreed to a comprehensive set of criteria and indicators for forest conservation and...chemistry variables, the concentrations of total and inorganic suspended sediments during baseflow and storm periods were excellent indicators of

  13. Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change · Climate Change: Generic Implications for Agriculture · Controlled environment facilities at IARI used for evaluating model performance in future climate change scenarios · Slide 4 · Slide 5 · Global studies indicate considerable impact of climate change in tropics.

  14. Climate change and human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warren, John A; Berner, James E; Curtis, Tine

    2005-01-01

    In northern regions, climate change can include changes in precipitation magnitude and frequency, reductions in sea ice extent and thickness, and climate warming and cooling. These changes can increase the frequency and severity of storms, flooding, or erosion; other changes may include drought...... or degradation of permafrost. Climate change can result in damage to sanitation infrastructure resulting in the spread of disease or threatening a community's ability to maintain its economy, geographic location and cultural tradition, leading to mental stress. Through monitoring of some basic indicators...... communities can begin to develop a response to climate change. With this information, planners, engineers, health care professionals and governments can begin to develop approaches to address the challenges related to climate change....

  15. Global vs climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, H.L.; Bach, M.C.; Goklany, I.M.

    1991-01-01

    The various agents of global change that will affect the state of natural resources 50-100 years from now are discussed. These include economic and population growth, technological progress, and climatic change. The importance of climatic change lies in its effects on natural resources and on human activities that depend on those resources. Other factors affecting those resources include the demand on those resources from an increasing population and from a growing economy, and a more efficient use of those resources that comes from technological changes and from the consequences of economic growth itself. It is shown that there is a considerable ability to adapt to climatic change, since humans already have an intrinsic ability to adapt to the wide variations in climates that already exist and since technological developments can make it easier to cope with climatic variability. It appears that agents other than climatic change are more significant to the future state of natural resources than climatic change. Criteria for selecting options for addressing climatic change are outlined. Technological change and economic growth are seen to be key response options, since the vulnerability to climatic change depends on economic resources and technological progress. Specific options to stimulate sustainable economic growth and technological progress are listed. 16 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  16. Climate change: against despair

    OpenAIRE

    McKinnon, Catriona

    2014-01-01

    In the face of accelerating climate change and the parlous state of its politics, despair is tempting. This paper analyses two manifestations of despair about climate change related to (1) the inefficacy of personal emissions reductions, and (2) the inability to make a difference to climate change through personal emissions reductions. On the back of an analysis of despair as a loss of hope, the paper argues that the judgements grounding each form of despair are unsound. The paper concludes w...

  17. Vertebrates population response to the climatic change - pertinence of the environmental indicators and influence of the demographic strategies and consequences for the biodiversity dynamic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weimerskirch, H.

    2007-01-01

    There is a growing interest and major challenge to understand the way environmental variability and climatic change have affected and will affect ecosystems and populations. Long-term records of population parameters of vertebrates are rare, but invaluable to address this challenge. The network CLIMPOP brings together French researchers working with long term data collected on individually marked animals to study the effects of climate change on a range of vertebrate populations (reptiles, birds and mammals) and standardised methods to link climatic factors and demographic parameters. The funding from GICC-IFB has allowed the CLIMPOP group to hire a post doc bridging methodologists and ecologists, organize a workshop and support field studies. Several analyses on a series of vertebrates have been carried out on the link between large-scale and small-scale climatic factors and population dynamics. In addition the CLIMPOP group has carried out a major methodological paper reviewing statistical models and procedures to study the influence of climate on vital rates based on the analysis of individual monitoring data, to identify potential pitfalls in the utilization of these models and procedures, to review published papers in which the influence of climatic variation on survival probability in vertebrate populations has been addressed, to evaluate whether the results from these studies are relevant and to draw practical recommendations to efficiently address effects of climate effects on vital rates in natural vertebrate populations. This evaluation raised six potential methodological issues and indicates that so far most of the studies found in the ecological literature can be considered as being useful for the purpose of generating hypothesis rather than for that of obtaining solid evidence for the impact of climatic factors on vital rates. (author)

  18. Chatham Islands Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mullan, B.; Salinger, J.; Thompson, C.; Ramsay, D.; Wild, M.

    2005-06-01

    This brief report provides guidance on climate change specific to the Chatham Islands, to complement the information recently produced for local government by the Ministry for the Environment in 'Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment: A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand' and 'Coastal Hazards and Climate Change: A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand'. These previous reports contain a lot of generic information on climate change, and how to assess associated risks, that is relevant to the Chatham Islands Council.

  19. EXTREME WINTERS IN XX–XXI CENTURIES AS INDICATORS OF SNOWINESS AND AVALANCHE HAZARD IN THE PAST AND EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. D. Oleynikov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Currently, due to the global climate change and increasing frequency of weather events focus is on prediction of climate extremes. Large-scale meteorological anomalies can cause long-term paralysis of social and economic infrastructure of the major mountain regions and even individual states. In winter periods, these anomalies are associated with prolonged heavy snowfalls and associated with them catastrophic avalanches which cause significant social and economic damage. The climate system maintains a certain momentum during periods of adjustment and transition to other conditions in the ratio of heat and moisture and contains a climate «signal» of the climates of the past and the future. In our view seasonal and yearly extremes perform the role of these indicators, study of which enables for a deeper understanding and appreciation of the real situation of the climate periods related to the modern ones. The paper provides an overview of the criteria for selection of extreme winters. Identification of extremely cold winters during the period of instrumental observation and assessment of their snowiness and avalanche activity done for the Elbrus region, which is a model site for study of the avalanche regime in the Central Caucasus. The studies aim to identify the extreme winters in the Greater Caucasus, assess their frequency of occurrence, characterize the scale and intensity of the avalanche formation. The data obtained can be used to identify winter-analogues in the reconstruction and long-term forecast of avalanches. 

  20. Relationships between forest fine and coarse woody debris carbon stocks across latitudinal gradients in the United States as an indicator of climate change effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    C.W. Woodall; G.C. Liknes

    2008-01-01

    Coarse and fine woody materials (CWD and FWD) are substantial forest ecosystem carbon (C) stocks. There is a lack of understanding how these detritus C stocks may respond to climate change. This study used a nation-wide inventory of CWD and FWD in the United States to examine how these C stocks vary by latitude. Results indicate that the highest CWD and FWD C stocks...

  1. [Establishment of policy indicators of adaptation to the impact of climate change on the transmission of schistosomiasis and malaria in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Ying-Jun; Li, Shi-Zhu; Xu, Jun-Fang; Zhang, Li; Fu, Qing; Zhou, Xiao-Nong

    2013-12-01

    To set up a framework of indicators for schistosomiasis and malaria to guide the formulation and evaluation of vector-borne disease control policies focusing on adaptation to the negative impact of climate change. A 2-level indicator framework was set up on the basis of literature review, and Delphi method was applied to a total of 22 and 19 experts working on schistosomiasis and malaria, respectively. The result was analyzed to calculate the weight of various indicators. A total of 41 questionnaires was delivered, and 38 with valid response (92.7%). The system included 4 indicators at first level, i.e. surveillance, scientific research, disease control and intervention, and adaptation capacity building, with 25 indicators for schistosomiasis and 21 for malaria at the second level. Among indicators at the first level, disease surveillance ranked first with a weight of 0.32. Among the indicators at the second level, vector monitoring scored the highest in terms of both schistosomiasis and malaria. The indicators set up by Delphi method are practical,universal and effective ones using in the field, which is also useful to technically support the establishment of adaptation to climate change in the field of public health.

  2. Asking about climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise

    2014-01-01

    and the number and types of interviews conducted are, for example, not always clear. Information on crucial aspects of qualitative research like researcher positionality, social positions of key informants, the use of field assistants, language issues and post-fieldwork treatment of data is also lacking in many...... with climate change? On the basis of a literature review of all articles published in Global Environmental Change between 2000 and 2012 that deal with human dimensions of climate change using qualitative methods this paper provides some answers but also raises some concerns. The period and length of fieldwork......There is increasing evidence that climate change will strongly affect people across the globe. Likely impacts of and adaptations to climate change are drawing the attention of researchers from many disciplines. In adaptation research focus is often on perceptions of climate change...

  3. The use of remotely-sensed snow, soil moisture and vegetation indices to develop resilience to climate change in Kazakhstan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saidaliyeva, Zarina; Davenport, Ian; Nobakht, Mohamad; White, Kevin; Shahgedanova, Maria

    2017-04-01

    Kazakhstan is a major producer of grain. Large scale grain production dominates in the north, making Kazakhstan one of the largest exporters of grain in the world. Agricultural production accounts for 9% of the national GDP, providing 25% of national employment. The south relies on grain production from household farms for subsistence, and has low resilience, so is vulnerable to reductions in output. Yields in the south depend on snowmelt and glacier runoff. The major limit to production is water supply, which is affected by glacier retreat and frequent droughts. Climate change is likely to impact all climate drivers negatively, leading to a decrease in crop yield, which will impact Kazakhstan and countries dependent on importing its produce. This work makes initial steps in modelling the impact of climate change on crop yield, by identifying the links between snowfall, soil moisture and agricultural productivity. Several remotely-sensed data sources are being used. The availability of snowmelt water over the period 2010-2014 is estimated by extracting the annual maximum snow water equivalent (SWE) from the Globsnow dataset, which assimilates satellite microwave observations with field observations to produce a spatial map. Soil moisture over the period 2010-2016 is provided by the ESA Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission. Vegetation density is approximated by the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) produced from NASA's MODIS instruments. Statistical information on crop yields is provided by the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan Committee on Statistics. Demonstrating the link between snowmelt yield and agricultural productivity depends on showing the impact of snow mass during winter on remotely-sensed soil moisture, the link between soil moisture and vegetation density, and finally the link between vegetation density and crop yield. Soil moisture maps were extracted from SMOS observations, and resampled onto a 40km x

  4. Uncertainties and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Gier, A.M.; Opschoor, J.B.; Van de Donk, W.B.H.J.; Hooimeijer, P.; Jepma, J.; Lelieveld, J.; Oerlemans, J.; Petersen, A.

    2008-01-01

    Which processes in the climate system are misunderstood? How are scientists dealing with uncertainty about climate change? What will be done with the conclusions of the recently published synthesis report of the IPCC? These and other questions were answered during the meeting 'Uncertainties and climate change' that was held on Monday 26 November 2007 at the KNAW in Amsterdam. This report is a compilation of all the presentations and provides some conclusions resulting from the discussions during this meeting. [mk] [nl

  5. Wine and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Ashenfelter, Orley; Storchmann, Karl

    2014-01-01

    In this article we provide an overview of the extensive literature on the impact of weather and climate on grapes and wine with the goal of describing how climate change is likely to affect their production. We start by discussing the physical impact of weather on vine phenology, berry composition and yields, and then survey the economic literature measuring the effects of temperature on wine quality, prices, costs and profits and how climate change will affect these. We also describe what ha...

  6. Climate and Global Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duplessy, J.C.; Pons, A.; Fantechi, R.

    1991-01-01

    The present volume contains the lessons delivered at the course held in Arles, France, on the subject Climate and Global Change: natural variability of the geosphere and biosphere systems, biogeochemical cycles and their perturbation by human activities, monitoring and forecasting global changes (satellite observations, modelling,...). Short presentations of students' own research activities are also proposed (climatic fluctuation in the Mediterranean area, climate/vegetation relations, etc.)

  7. Climate Change and Transportation

    OpenAIRE

    Yevdokimov, Yuri

    2010-01-01

    As stated at the beginning of this chapter, the relationship between transportation and climate is two-directional. Based on our statistical analysis performed for Canada, we can make some general conclusions about this relationship. On the one hand, transportation is one of the largest contributors to GHG emissions which, in turn, cause various changes in climate. On the other hand, these climate changes negatively affect transportation in terms of its infrastructure and operations. Therefor...

  8. Large increase in nest size linked to climate change: an indicator of life history, senescence and condition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Møller, Anders Pape; Nielsen, Jan Tøttrup

    2015-11-01

    Many animals build extravagant nests that exceed the size required for successful reproduction. Large nests may signal the parenting ability of nest builders suggesting that nests may have a signaling function. In particular, many raptors build very large nests for their body size. We studied nest size in the goshawk Accipiter gentilis, which is a top predator throughout most of the Nearctic. Both males and females build nests, and males provision their females and offspring with food. Nest volume in the goshawk is almost three-fold larger than predicted from their body size. Nest size in the goshawk is highly variable and may reach more than 600 kg for a bird that weighs ca. 1 kg. While 8.5% of nests fell down, smaller nests fell down more often than large nests. There was a hump-shaped relationship between nest volume and female age, with a decline in nest volume late in life, as expected for senescence. Clutch size increased with nest volume. Nest volume increased during 1977-2014 in an accelerating fashion, linked to increasing spring temperature during April, when goshawks build and start reproduction. These findings are consistent with nest size being a reliable signal of parental ability, with large nest size signaling superior parenting ability and senescence, and also indicating climate warming.

  9. Synopsis of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angela Jardine; Jonathan Long

    2014-01-01

    Changes in climate can interact with other stressors to transform ecosystems and alter the services those ecosystems provide. This synopsis presents themes that run through the synthesis report regarding the impacts of a changing climate on the forests and waters of the synthesis area as well as long-term, broad-scale, science-based strategies to promote system...

  10. Financing climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwer, L.M.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the topic of financing adaptation in future climate change policies. A major question is whether adaptation in developing countries should be financed under the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), or whether funding should come from other sources.

  11. Climate for change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newell, P.

    2000-01-01

    Climate for Change: Non-State Actors and the Global Politics of the Greenhouse provides a challenging explanation of the forces that have shaped the international global warming debate. Unlike existing books on the politics of climate change, this book concentrates on how non-stage actors, such as scientific, environmental and industry groups, as opposed to governmental organisations, affect political outcomes in global fora on climate change. It also provides insights in to the role of the media in influencing the agenda. The book draws on a range of analytical approaches to assess and explain the influence of these non-governmental organisations in the course of global climate change politics. The book will be of interest to all researchers and policy-makers associated with climate change, and will be used on university courses in international relations, politics and environmental studies. (Author)

  12. The climate is changing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfsen, Knut H.

    2001-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has finalized its Third Assessment Report. Among its conclusions is that we must expect continued changes in our climate, despite our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Planning for and adapting to climate change are therefore necessary. As a starting point, CICERO has written this short note on expected impacts in Norway. The main conclusions are that (1) Adaptation to climate change is necessary (2) Substantial impacts are expected for several important sectors in Norway (3) The local and central authorities should now consider and start planning for adaptation measures. (4) There is still a need for more knowledge about potential impacts of climate change in Norway. (author)

  13. Trade and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamiotti, L.; Teh, R.; Kulacoglu, V. (World Trade Organization (WTO), Geneva (Switzerland)); Olhoff, A.; Simmons, B.; Abaza, H. (United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (Denmark))

    2009-06-15

    The Report aims to improve understanding about the linkages between trade and climate change. It shows that trade intersects with climate change in a multitude of ways. For example, governments may introduce a variety of policies, such as regulatory measures and economic incentives, to address climate change. This complex web of measures may have an impact on international trade and the multilateral trading system. The Report begins with a summary of the current state of scientific knowledge on climate change and on the options available for responding to the challenge of climate change. The scientific review is followed by a part on the economic aspects of the link between trade and climate change, and these two parts set the context for the subsequent parts of the Report, which looks at the policies introduced at both the international and national level to address climate change. The part on international policy responses to climate change describes multilateral efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the effects of climate change, and also discusses the role of the current trade and environment negotiations in promoting trade in technologies that aim to mitigate climate change. The final part of the Report gives an overview of a range of national policies and measures that have been used in a number of countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to increase energy efficiency. It presents key features in the design and implementation of these policies, in order to draw a clearer picture of their overall effect and potential impact on environmental protection, sustainable development and trade. It also gives, where appropriate, an overview of the WTO rules that may be relevant to such measures. (author)

  14. Struggle against climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    This document first proposes a presentation of the cross-cutting policy defined for the struggle against climate change. It notably presents its various programs. It describes the implemented strategy which aims at reducing on a short term greenhouse gas emissions with the available technologies, at making the climate challenge a driver for economic competitiveness, at developing the knowledge on climatic change and at preparing the necessary adaptation measures, and at stating on the international scene the French commitment and its dynamic role in front of the climate challenge

  15. Communities under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

  16. Climate change: wildfire impact

    OpenAIRE

    Dautbasic, Mirza; Crabtree, J.; Ioras, Florin; Abrudan, Ioan Vasile; Ratnasingam, Jega

    2011-01-01

    Every ecosystem is a complex organization of carefully mixed life forms; a dynamic and particularly sensible system. Consequently, their progressive decline may accelerate climate change and vice versa, influencing flora and fauna composition and distribution, resulting in the loss of biodiversity. Climate changes effects are the principal topics of this volume. Written by internationally renowned contributors, Biodiversity loss in a changing planet offers attractive study cases focused on bi...

  17. Climate change: biological and human aspects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jonathan Cowie

    2007-07-15

    The textbook provides a broad review of past, present and likely future climate change from the viewpoints of biology, ecology and human ecology. Contents are: 1. An introduction to climate change; 2. Principal indicators of past climates; 3. Past climate change; 4. The Oligocene to the Quaternary: climate and biology; 5. Present climate and biological change; 6. Current warming and likely future impacts; 7. Human ecology of climate change; 8. Sustainability and policy; Appendix 1. Glossary and acronyms; Appendix 2. Bio-geological timescale; Appendix 3. Calculations of energy demand/supply, and orders of magnitude; Index. 69 figs.

  18. Biodiversity and Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onyango, J.C.O.; Ojoo-Massawa, E.; Abira, M.A.

    1997-01-01

    Biological diversity or biodiversity is crucial for ecological stability including regulation of climate change, recreational and medicinal use; and scientific advancement. Kenya like other developing countries, especially, those in Sub-Saharan Africa, will continue to depend greatly on her biodiversity for present and future development. This important resource must, therefore be conserved. This chapter presents an overview of Kenya's biodiversity; its importance and initiatives being undertaken for its conservation; and in detail, explores issues of climate change and biodiversity, concentrating on impacts of climate change

  19. Technology and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrison, R.; Layzedl, D.; McLean, G.

    2002-01-01

    This paper was the major one of the opening plenary session at the Climate Change 2 conference. The paper provides a context for assessing the needs for technologies to reduce the concentration of GHG in the atmosphere. It looks at sources, sinks and trends for GHG, in the world at large and in Canada, and at efforts to develop new technologies to achieve the goals of climate change policy. The paper focusses on transport, electricity and biomass as sectors of interest, both because of their potential for contributing to climate change policy goals within Canada, and also because of research interests

  20. Adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn

    2011-01-01

    Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling...... framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed...... down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US2.3 to US2.3toUS7...

  1. Climate change governance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knieling, Joerg [HafenCity Univ. Hamburg (Germany). Urban Planning and Regional Development; Leal Filho, Walter (eds.) [HAW Hamburg (Germany). Research and Transfer Centre Applications of Life Science

    2013-07-01

    Climate change is a cause for concern both globally and locally. In order for it to be tackled holistically, its governance is an important topic needing scientific and practical consideration. Climate change governance is an emerging area, and one which is closely related to state and public administrative systems and the behaviour of private actors, including the business sector, as well as the civil society and non-governmental organisations. Questions of climate change governance deal both with mitigation and adaptation whilst at the same time trying to devise effective ways of managing the consequences of these measures across the different sectors. Many books have been produced on general matters related to climate change, such as climate modelling, temperature variations, sea level rise, but, to date, very few publications have addressed the political, economic and social elements of climate change and their links with governance. This book will address this gap. Furthermore, a particular feature of this book is that it not only presents different perspectives on climate change governance, but it also introduces theoretical approaches and brings these together with practical examples which show how main principles may be implemented in practice.

  2. Nature-based solutions to climate change mitigation and adaptation in urban areas: perspectives on indicators, knowledge gaps, barriers, and opportunities for action

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadja Kabisch

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Nature-based solutions promoting green and blue urban areas have significant potential to decrease the vulnerability and enhance the resilience of cities in light of climatic change. They can thereby help to mitigate climate change-induced impacts and serve as proactive adaptation options for municipalities. We explore the various contexts in which nature-based solutions are relevant for climate mitigation and adaptation in urban areas, identify indicators for assessing the effectiveness of nature-based solutions and related knowledge gaps. In addition, we explore existing barriers and potential opportunities for increasing the scale and effectiveness of nature-based solution implementation. The results were derived from an inter- and transdisciplinary workshop with experts from research, municipalities, policy, and society. As an outcome of the workshop discussions and building on existing evidence, we highlight three main needs for future science and policy agendas when dealing with nature-based solutions: (i produce stronger evidence on nature-based solutions for climate change adaptation and mitigation and raise awareness by increasing implementation; (ii adapt for governance challenges in implementing nature-based solutions by using reflexive approaches, which implies bringing together new networks of society, nature-based solution ambassadors, and practitioners; (iii consider socio-environmental justice and social cohesion when implementing nature-based solutions by using integrated governance approaches that take into account an integrative and transdisciplinary participation of diverse actors. Taking these needs into account, nature-based solutions can serve as climate mitigation and adaptation tools that produce additional cobenefits for societal well-being, thereby serving as strong investment options for sustainable urban planning.

  3. Climate change and wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    William J. De Groot; Michael D. Flannigan; Brian J. Stocks

    2013-01-01

    Wildland fire regimes are primarily driven by climate/weather, fuels and people. All of these factors are dynamic and their variable interactions create a mosaic of fire regimes around the world. Climate change will have a substantial impact on future fire regimes in many global regions. Current research suggests a general increase in area burned and fire occurrence...

  4. Chemistry and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernier, Jean-Claude; Brasseur, Guy; Brechet, Yves; Candel, Sebastien; Cazenave, Anny; Courtillot, Vincent; Fontecave, Marc; Garnier, Emmanuel; Goebel, Philippe; Legrand, Jack; Legrand, Michel; Le Treut, Herve; Mauberger, Pascal; Dinh-Audouin, Minh-Thu; Olivier, Daniele; Rigny, Paul; Bigot, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    In its first part, this collective publication addresses the decennial and centuries-old variations of climate: perspectives and implications of climate change for the 21. century, questions remaining about the understanding of climate change from its sources to its modelling, extreme climate variations and societies during the last millennium. The contributions of the second part outline how chemistry is a tool to study climate change: ice chemistry as an archive of our past environment, observations and predictions on sea level rise, relationship between atmosphere chemistry and climate. The third set of contributions discusses the transformation of the energy system for a cleaner atmosphere and the management of the climate risk: the chemical processing of CO_2, actions of chemical companies to support the struggle against climate change, relationship between barrel price and renewable energies, relationship between grid complexity and green energy. The last part outlines the role chemistry can have to be able to do without fossil fuels: chemistry in front of challenges of transformation of the energy system, the use of micro-algae, the use of hydrogen as a vector of energy transition

  5. Olivine and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuiling, R.D.

    2012-01-01

    The greenhouse effect, thanks mainly to the water vapor in our atmosphere, has created a livable climate on Earth. Climate change, however, may potentially have dire consequences. It is generally assumed that the rise in CO2 levels in the atmosphere is the main culprit, although several other

  6. A vulnerability driven approach to identify adverse climate and land use change combinations for critical hydrologic indicator thresholds: Application to a watershed in Pennsylvania, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, R.; Wagener, T.; Crane, R.; Mann, M. E.; Ning, L.

    2014-04-01

    Large uncertainties in streamflow projections derived from downscaled climate projections of precipitation and temperature can render such simulations of limited value for decision making in the context of water resources management. New approaches are being sought to provide decision makers with robust information in the face of such large uncertainties. We present an alternative approach that starts with the stakeholder's definition of vulnerable ranges for relevant hydrologic indicators. Then the modeled system is analyzed to assess under what conditions these thresholds are exceeded. The space of possible climates and land use combinations for a watershed is explored to isolate subspaces that lead to vulnerability, while considering model parameter uncertainty in the analysis. We implement this concept using classification and regression trees (CART) that separate the input space of climate and land use change into those combinations that lead to vulnerability and those that do not. We test our method in a Pennsylvania watershed for nine ecological and water resources related streamflow indicators for which an increase in temperature between 3°C and 6°C and change in precipitation between -17% and 19% is projected. Our approach provides several new insights, for example, we show that even small decreases in precipitation (˜5%) combined with temperature increases greater than 2.5°C can push the mean annual runoff into a slightly vulnerable regime. Using this impact and stakeholder driven strategy, we explore the decision-relevant space more fully and provide information to the decision maker even if climate change projections are ambiguous.

  7. Global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levine, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Present processes of global climate change are reviewed. The processes determining global temperature are briefly described and the concept of effective temperature is elucidated. The greenhouse effect is examined, including the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. 18 refs

  8. Creationism & Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, S.

    2009-12-01

    Although creationists focus on the biological sciences, recently creationists have also expanded their attacks to include the earth sciences, especially on the topic of climate change. The creationist effort to deny climate change, in addition to evolution and radiometric dating, is part of a broader denial of the methodology and validity of science itself. Creationist misinformation can pose a serious problem for science educators, who are further hindered by the poor treatment of the earth sciences and climate change in state science standards. Recent changes to Texas’ science standards, for example, require that students learn “different views on the existence of global warming.” Because of Texas’ large influence on the national textbook market, textbooks presenting non-scientific “different views” about climate change—or simply omitting the subject entirely because of the alleged “controversy”—could become part of K-12 classrooms across the country.

  9. Climate change and compensation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint; Flanagan, Tine Bech

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a case for compensation of actual harm from climate change in the poorest countries. First, it is shown that climate change threatens to reverse the fight to eradicate poverty. Secondly, it is shown how the problems raised in the literature for compensation to some extent...... are based on misconceptions and do not apply to compensation of present actual harm. Finally, two arguments are presented to the effect that, in so far as developed countries accept a major commitment to mitigate climate change, they should also accept a commitment to address or compensate actual harm from...... climate change. The first argument appeals to the principle that if it is an injustice to cause risk of incurring harm in the future, then it is also an injustice to cause a similar harm now. The second argument appeals to the principle that if there is moral reason to reduce the risk of specific harms...

  10. Global Climatic Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houghton, Richard A.; Woodwell, George M.

    1989-01-01

    Cites some of the evidence which suggests that the production of carbon dioxide and methane from human activities has begun to change the climate. Describes some measures which should be taken to stop or slow this progression. (RT)

  11. Climate Change Adaptation Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    A list of on-line training modules to help local government officials and those interested in water management issues better understand how the changing climate affects the services and resources they care about

  12. Responsibility and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Jamieson, Dale

    2015-01-01

    Ibegin by providing some background to conceptions of responsibility. I note the extent of disagreement in this area, the diverse and cross-cutting distinctions that are deployed, and the relative neglect of some important problems. These facts make it difficult to attribute responsibility for climate change, but so do some features of climate change itself which I go on to illuminate. Attributions of responsibility are often contested sites because such attributions are fundamentally pragmat...

  13. Climate change - the impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reysset, Bertrand; Billes-Garabedian, Laurent; Henique, Julien; Pascal, Mathilde; Pirard, Philippe; Motreff, Yvon; Barbault, Robert; Weber, Jacques; Gate, Philippe; Salagnac, Jean-Luc; Desplat, Julien; Kounkou-Arnaud, Raphaelle

    2012-01-01

    This special dossier about the impacts of climate change is made of 6 contributions dealing with: the mitigation of climate effects and how to deal with them (Bertrand Reysset); how to dare and transmit (Laurent Billes-Garabedian); littoral risks, the Pas-de-Calais example (Julien Henique); extreme meteorological events and health impacts (Mathilde Pascal, Philippe Pirard, Yvon Motreff); Biodiversity and climate: the janus of global change (Robert Barbault, Jacques Weber); adapting agriculture to dryness and temperatures (Philippe Gate); Paris and the future heats of the year 2100 (Jean-Luc Salagnac, Julien Desplat, Raphaelle Kounkou-Arnaud)

  14. Climate change and forest diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    R.N. Sturrock; Susan Frankel; A. V. Brown; Paul Hennon; J. T. Kliejunas; K. J. Lewis; J. J. Worrall; A. J. Woods

    2011-01-01

    As climate changes, the effects of forest diseases on forest ecosystems will change. We review knowledge of relationships between climate variables and several forest diseases, as well as current evidence of how climate, host and pathogen interactions are responding or might respond to climate change. Many forests can be managed to both adapt to climate change and...

  15. Forest and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    After having recalled the challenges the French forest has to face, and a brief overview of the status of forests in the world, this report proposes an overview of actions which are implemented to strengthen the carbon sequestration role of forests, at the international level and in France. It discusses the distribution of carbon, the forest carbon stocks (in the world, Europe and France), the actions against climate change, the costs and financing of the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the forest sector. It comments the status of international negotiations and how forests are taken into account. It presents the French forest and wood sector (characteristics of the forest in metropolitan France and overseas, wood as material and as energy). It recalls the commitment of the Grenelle de l'Environnement, and indicates the current forest studies

  16. Climate change: Recent findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hesselmans, G.H.F.M.

    1993-08-01

    In the late eighties several reports have been published on climate change and sea level rise. In the meantime insights may have changed due to the availability of better and more observations and/or more advanced climate models. The aim of this report is to present the most recent findings with respect to climate change, in particular of sea level rise, storm surges and river peak flows. These climate factors are important for the safety of low-lying areas with respect to coastal erosion and flooding. In the first chapters a short review is presented of a few of the eighties reports. Furthermore, the predictions by state of the art climate models at that time are given. The reports from the eighties should be considered as 'old' information, whereas the IPCC supplement and work, for example, by Wigley should be considered as new information. To assess the latest findings two experts in this field were interviewed: dr J. Oerlemans and dr C.J.E. Schuurmans, a climate expert from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). Their views are presented together with results published in recent papers on the subject. On the basis of this assessment, the report presents current knowledge regarding predictions of climate change (including sea-level rise) over the next century, together with an assessment of the uncertainties associated with these predictions. 14 figs., 11 tabs., 24 refs

  17. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Sean A. Parks

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not...

  18. Development of an indicator system for the German action plan to global climate change (DAS); Entwicklung eines Indikatorensystems fuer die Deutsche Anpassungsstrategie an den Klimawandel (DAS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoenthaler, Konstanze; Andrian-Werburg, Stefan von [Bosch und Partner GmbH, Muenchen (Germany); Nickel, Darla [Ecologic gGmbH Institut fuer Internationale und Europaeische Umweltpolitik, Berlin (Germany)

    2011-12-15

    On 17th December 2008 the German Federal Cabinet adopted the German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change (DAS: Deutsche Anpassungsstrategie) (BUNDESREGIERUNG 2008). The DAS has created the framework for adapting to the consequences of climate change in Germany. First and foremost, the DAS contributes its guidelines at Federal level, to provide guidance for agents at other levels. The Strategy lays the foundation for a medium-term process. In conjunction with the individual Federal States and other groups representing various sectors of society, the Strategy provides a step-by-step assessment of the risks of climate change. Furthermore, it states the potential requirements for action, and defines the appropriate goals and potential adaptation measures to be developed and implemented in the process. The Strategy is divided into 13 action fields and two cross-sectional fields (=14+15). (1) Human health (2) Building sector (3) Water regime, water management, coastal and marine protection (4) Soil (5) Biological diversity (6) Agriculture (7) Woodland and forestry (8) Fishery (9) Energy industry (conversion, transport and supply) (10) Financial services industry (11) Transport, transport infrastructure (12) Trade and industry (13) Tourism industry (14) Spatial, regional and physical development planning (15) Civil protection. In due course, the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) will design a comprehensive set of tools to support and implement the DAS. This will be made available for download from www.anpassung.net. An integral part of this will be the 'Tatenbank' (www.tatenbank.anpassung.net), the 'Klimalotse' (www.klimalotse.anpassung.net), FISKA (special information system 'Adaptation') and an Indicator System to aid adaptation. The latter is one of the key tasks identified for the DAS. As far as the Indicator System is concerned, it has been decided to prepare a Report on Indicators for the challenges facing Germany and the

  19. Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hudecz, Adriána

    The European Union ROADEX Project 1998 – 2012 was a trans-national roads co-operation aimed at developing ways for interactive and innovative management of low traffic volume roads throughout the cold climate regions of the Northern Periphery Area of Europe. Its goals were to facilitate co......-operation and research into the common problems of the Northern Periphery. This report is an output of the ROADEX “Implementing Accessibility” project (2009-2012). It gives a summary of the results of research into adaptation measures to combat climate change effects on low volume roads in the Northern Periphery...... causes changes in other climatic variables such as rainfall, humidity and wind speed that impact on the functioning of infrastructure such road networks. This paper discusses the climate changes predicted by the world’s meteorological organisations and considers how these may impact on the public...

  20. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  1. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Toni L.; Jackson, Stephen T.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

  2. Topologies of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is quickly becoming a ubiquitous socionatural reality, mediating extremes of sociospatial scale from the bodily to the planetary. Although environmentalism invites us to ‘think globally and act locally', the meaning of these scalar designations remains ambiguous. This paper explores...... the topological presuppositions of social theory in the context of global climate change, asking how carbon emissions ‘translate' into various sociomaterial forms. Staging a meeting between Tim Ingold's phenomenology of globes and spheres and the social topologies of actor-network theory (ANT), the paper advances...... a ‘relational-scalar' analytics of spatial practices, technoscience, and power. As technoscience gradually constructs a networked global climate, this ‘grey box' comes to circulate within fluid social spaces, taking on new shades as it hybridizes knowledges, symbols, and practices. Global climates thus come...

  3. Climate Change and Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chinowsky, P.; Arndt, Channing

    2012-01-01

    to estimate the impact of individual climate stressors on road infrastructure in Mozambique. Through these models, stressor–response functions are introduced that quantify the cost impact of a specific stressor based on the intensity of the stressor and the type of infrastructure it is affecting. Utilizing...... four climate projection scenarios, the paper details how climate change response decisions may cost the Mozambican government in terms of maintenance costs and long-term roadstock inventory reduction. Through this approach the paper details how a 14% reduction in inventory loss can be achieved through...

  4. Climate change policy position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-11-01

    The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) is a firm believer in the need to take action to mitigate the risks associated with climate change, and that clear government policy is called for. The principles of sustainable development must guide this policy development effort. The initiatives required to address greenhouse gas emissions over both the short and long term must be carefully considered, and it is up to industries to ensure their production efficiency and emission intensity. Promoting improved performance of industries in Canada and developing technology that can be deployed internationally for larger global effects represents Canada's best contribution to progress on greenhouse gas emissions. The increase in energy demand along with increases in population and economic growth have contributed to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions despite improved energy efficiency in industry. Significant damage to the economy will result if Canada is to meet its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol, forcing the country to buy large quantities of foreign credits instead of using those funds for increased research and development. CAPP indicated that an effective plan must be: balanced, equitable, responsible, competitive, focused on technology and innovation, and based on agreements on sectoral plans. Each of these principles were discussed, followed by the fundamentals of approach for upstream oil and gas. The framework for climate change policy was described as well as the elements of a sector plan. CAPP wants to work with all levels of government on an appropriate plan for Canada, that considers our unique circumstances. Canada can play a significant role on the international stage by properly implementing the policy position proposed by the CAPP without unnecessary risks to the economy. refs

  5. The climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    In order to take stock on the climatic change situation and initiatives at the beginning of 2006, the INES (National Institute on the Solar Energy) proposes this special document. It presents the Montreal conference of December 2005, realized to reinforced the actions of the international community against the greenhouse gases. The technical decisions decided at this conference are detailed. The document discusses also the causes and consequences of the climatic warming, the intervention sectors and the actions possibilities. (A.L.B.)

  6. Evaporation and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandsma, T.

    1993-01-01

    In this article the influence of climate change on evaporation is discussed. The emphasis is on open water evaporation. Three methods for calculating evaporation are compared considering only changes in temperature and factors directly dependent on temperature. The Penman-method is used to

  7. Adaptability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sprague, M.W.

    1991-01-01

    The potential social, economic and environmental impacts of climate change are reviewed, with emphasis on agricultural implications. Impact analyses must be done on the scale of watersheds or river basins. For agriculture, climate change effects on water resources are likely to be more important than temperature changes, and climatic variability is also equally important. Another set of critical climatic variables are the frequencies, magnitudes and timing of extreme events such as floods, droughts, etc. A carbon dioxide enriched atmosphere will increase water use efficiency and confer increased tolerance to drought, salinity and air pollution. Better understanding and accounting is required for the effects of increased carbon dioxide on all plant life, including crops. Adaptability of agriculture to change must be taken into account in predicting impacts of climate change, with technological innovation and infrastructure giving agriculture a dynamic nature. Limitations and adaptations must be considered when formulating public policy, to ensure that marginal costs do not exceed marginal benefits. Monoculture plantation forests may be the most efficient sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide, yet widespread reliance on them may harm biological diversity. Actions the U.S. is currently taking under a no-regrets policy are summarized

  8. Regional climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-01-01

    Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

  9. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toni Lyn Morelli; Christopher Daly; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Deanna M. Dulen; Joseph L. Ebersole; Stephen T. Jackson; Jessica D. Lundquist; Connie Millar; Sean P. Maher; William B. Monahan; Koren R. Nydick; Kelly T. Redmond; Sarah C. Sawyer; Sarah Stock; Steven R. Beissinger

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that...

  10. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change ref...

  11. Climate change matters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macpherson, Cheryl Cox

    2014-04-01

    One manifestation of climate change is the increasingly severe extreme weather that causes injury, illness and death through heat stress, air pollution, infectious disease and other means. Leading health organisations around the world are responding to the related water and food shortages and volatility of energy and agriculture prices that threaten health and health economics. Environmental and climate ethics highlight the associated challenges to human rights and distributive justice but rarely address health or encompass bioethical methods or analyses. Public health ethics and its broader umbrella, bioethics, remain relatively silent on climate change. Meanwhile global population growth creates more people who aspire to Western lifestyles and unrestrained socioeconomic growth. Fulfilling these aspirations generates more emissions; worsens climate change; and undermines virtues and values that engender appreciation of, and protections for, natural resources. Greater understanding of how virtues and values are evolving in different contexts, and the associated consequences, might nudge the individual and collective priorities that inform public policy toward embracing stewardship and responsibility for environmental resources necessary to health. Instead of neglecting climate change and related policy, public health ethics and bioethics should explore these issues; bring transparency to the tradeoffs that permit emissions to continue at current rates; and offer deeper understanding about what is at stake and what it means to live a good life in today's world.

  12. Signs of climate change in Nordic nature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Maria; Jensen, Trine Susanne; Normander, Bo

    on population size and range of the polar bear, for example, are scarce, whereas data on the pollen season are extensive. Each indicator is evaluated using a number of quality criteria, including sensitivity to climate change, policy relevance and methodology. Although the indicator framework presented here has......Not only is the Earth's climate changing, our natural world is also being affected by the impact of rising temperatures and changes in climatic conditions. In order to track climate-related changes in Nordic ecosystems, we have identified a number of climate change sensitive indicators. We present...... a catalogue of 14 indicator-based signs that demonstrate the impact of climate change on terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems in the different bio-geographical zones of the Nordic region. The indicators have been identified using a systematic and quality, criteria based approach to discern and select...

  13. Toward evaluating the effect of climate change on investments in the water resources sector: insights from the forecast and analysis of hydrological indicators in developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strzepek, Kenneth; Jacobsen, Michael; Boehlert, Brent; Neumann, James

    2013-01-01

    The World Bank has recently developed a method to evaluate the effects of climate change on six hydrological indicators across 8951 basins of the world. The indicators are designed for decision-makers and stakeholders to consider climate risk when planning water resources and related infrastructure investments. Analysis of these hydrological indicators shows that, on average, mean annual runoff will decline in southern Europe; most of Africa; and in southern North America and most of Central and South America. Mean reference crop water deficit, on the other hand, combines temperature and precipitation and is anticipated to increase in nearly all locations globally due to rising global temperatures, with the most dramatic increases projected to occur in southern Europe, southeastern Asia, and parts of South America. These results suggest overall guidance on which regions to focus water infrastructure solutions that could address future runoff flow uncertainty. Most important, we find that uncertainty in projections of mean annual runoff and high runoff events is higher in poorer countries, and increases over time. Uncertainty increases over time for all income categories, but basins in the lower and lower-middle income categories are forecast to experience dramatically higher increases in uncertainty relative to those in the upper-middle and upper income categories. The enhanced understanding of the uncertainty of climate projections for the water sector that this work provides strongly support the adoption of rigorous approaches to infrastructure design under uncertainty, as well as design that incorporates a high degree of flexibility, in response to both risk of damage and opportunity to exploit water supply ‘windfalls’ that might result, but would require smart infrastructure investments to manage to the greatest benefit. (letter)

  14. Toward evaluating the effect of climate change on investments in the water resources sector: insights from the forecast and analysis of hydrological indicators in developing countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strzepek, Kenneth; Jacobsen, Michael; Boehlert, Brent; Neumann, James

    2013-12-01

    The World Bank has recently developed a method to evaluate the effects of climate change on six hydrological indicators across 8951 basins of the world. The indicators are designed for decision-makers and stakeholders to consider climate risk when planning water resources and related infrastructure investments. Analysis of these hydrological indicators shows that, on average, mean annual runoff will decline in southern Europe; most of Africa; and in southern North America and most of Central and South America. Mean reference crop water deficit, on the other hand, combines temperature and precipitation and is anticipated to increase in nearly all locations globally due to rising global temperatures, with the most dramatic increases projected to occur in southern Europe, southeastern Asia, and parts of South America. These results suggest overall guidance on which regions to focus water infrastructure solutions that could address future runoff flow uncertainty. Most important, we find that uncertainty in projections of mean annual runoff and high runoff events is higher in poorer countries, and increases over time. Uncertainty increases over time for all income categories, but basins in the lower and lower-middle income categories are forecast to experience dramatically higher increases in uncertainty relative to those in the upper-middle and upper income categories. The enhanced understanding of the uncertainty of climate projections for the water sector that this work provides strongly support the adoption of rigorous approaches to infrastructure design under uncertainty, as well as design that incorporates a high degree of flexibility, in response to both risk of damage and opportunity to exploit water supply ‘windfalls’ that might result, but would require smart infrastructure investments to manage to the greatest benefit.

  15. Global guidance on environmental life cycle impact assessment indicators: impacts of climate change, fine particulate matter formation, water consumption and land use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jolliet, Olivier; Antón, Assumpció; Boulay, Anne-Marie

    2018-01-01

    of water consumption on human health assesses the DALYs from malnutrition caused by lack of water for irrigated food production. Land use impacts: CFs representing global potential species loss from land use are proposed as interim recommendation suitable to assess biodiversity loss due to land use......Purpose: Guidance is needed on best-suited indicators to quantify and monitor the man-made impacts on human health, biodiversity and resources. Therefore, the UNEP-SETAC Life Cycle Initiative initiated a global consensus process to agree on an updated overall life cycle impact assessment (LCIA...... are recommended: (a) The global warming potential 100 years (GWP 100) represents shorter term impacts associated with rate of change and adaptation capacity, and (b) the global temperature change potential 100 years (GTP 100) characterizes the century-scale long term impacts, both including climate-carbon cycle...

  16. Climate Change Portal - Home Page

    Science.gov (United States)

    Science Partnerships Contact Us Take Action Climate change is already having significant and widespread of climate change. Business Businesses throughout California are taking action to address climate climate change impacts and informing policies to reduce greenhouse gases, adapt to changing environments

  17. Climatic change and nuclear

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, M.

    2003-01-01

    One of the main priorities of the WWF is to increase the implementing of solutions relative to the greenhouse effect fight. In this framework the foundation published a study on the nuclear facing the climatic change problem. The following chapters are detailed: the nuclear and the negotiations on the climatic change; the nuclear close; the unrealistic hypothesis of the nuclear forecast; the nuclear facing other energy supplying options; supplying efficiency for heating, electric power, gas and renewable energies; the consumption efficiency facing the nuclear; the economical aspects; the deregulation effect; the political aspects; the nuclear AND the greenhouse effect. (A.L.B.)

  18. Ecological response to climate change and human activities indicated by n-alkane proxy during the mid- to late Holocene: a case study from an alpine lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, C.; Zhao, C.

    2017-12-01

    Paleolimonological records provide long-term dynamics information of past climate, environment, human activities and ecological variations and give evolutionary perspectives to understand responses process of ecological shift to internal or external trigger. In this study, a powerful biomarkers, n-alkanes, was used to reconstruct the past 5000 years organic matter sources and ecological evolution history of Beilianchi Lake in the southwestern of Loess Plateau after preliminary investigation of modern samples. Climate-environment change and human activities were also traced by total organic matter (TOC), magnetic susceptibility (MS) and relevant proxies. The results showed that the ecosystem related to organic matter composition in Beilianchi Lake might be mainly controlled by climate change before 1400 cal B.P., whereas after that, it was significantly influenced by soil erosion induced by increasing population and enhanced human activities. Lake ecosystem experienced periodical change from relatively stable stage with combination of allochthonous-autochthonous organic sources prior to 1400 cal B.P. to extremely instability and final return to steady state with allochthonous-dominant organic source since 300 cal B.P.. During the period of instability, organic matter composition during 1400-800 cal B.P. indicated a obvious bimodal distribution based on probability density distribution analysis, which reflected the lake ecosystem might stay at bistable state and switched repeatedly from more-macrophytes state (regime A with low ACL) towards less-macrophytes state (regime B with high ACL) controlled by disturbance of soil erosion. The flickering during this period could serve as the early warning signal of transition towards more-macrophytes state or less-macrophytes state in lake ecosystems.

  19. Climatic change. What solutions?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vieillefosse, A.

    2009-01-01

    From 1990 to the present day, worldwide greenhouse gas emissions have increased by about 25%. Fighting climatic change has become an urgency: we only have 15 years in front of us to inflect the trajectory of worldwide emissions and to avoid a temperature rise of more than 2 deg. C during this century. Therefore, how is it possible to explain the shift between the need of an urgent action and the apparent inertia of some governing parties? How is it possible to implement a worldwide governance capable to answer the urgency of the fight against climatic change? These are the two questions that this pedagogical and concrete book tries to answer by analysing the different dimensions of climatic change and by making a first status of the building up of the international action, and in particular of the Kyoto protocol. For the post-2012 era, research and negotiations are in progress with the objective of reaching an agreement for the Copenhagen conference of December 2009. Several architectures are possible. This book shades light on the advantages and limitations of each of them with the possible compromises. It supplies a pluri-disciplinary approach of the international negotiations, often considered as complex by the general public. Content: 1 - understanding the climatic change stakes: climatic stakes, the main actors behind the figures, the technical-economical stakes; 2 - understanding the present day architecture of the fight against climatic change: strengths and weaknesses of the Kyoto protocol; encouraging research and technology spreading; the other action means in developing countries; 3 - what structure for a future international agreement?: the Bali negotiation process; the ideal vision: an improved Kyoto protocol; the pragmatic vision: individualized commitments; the negotiation space; preventing a planned fiasco. (J.S.)

  20. Climate change and amphibians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corn, P.S.

    2005-01-01

    Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species

  1. Climate change and amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corn, P. S.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species

  2. Energy and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-15

    Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

  3. World Regionalization of Climate Change(1961–2010)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Peijun; Shi; Shao; Sun; Daoyi; Gong; Tao; Zhou

    2016-01-01

    Traditional climate classification or regionalization characterizes the mean state of climate condition, which cannot meet the demand of addressing climate change currently. We have developed a climate change classification method, as well as the fundamental principles, an indicator system, and mapping techniques of climate change regionalization. This study used annual mean temperature and total precipitation as climatic indices, and linear trend and variation change as change indices to characterize climate change quantitatively. The study has proposed a scheme for world climate change regionalization based on a half century of climate data(1961–2010). Level-I regionalization divides the world into 12 tendency zones based on the linear trend of climate, level-II regionalization resulted in 28 fluctuation regions based on the variation change of climate. Climate change regionalization provides a scientific basis for countries and regions to develop plans for adapting to climate change, especially for managing climate-related disaster or environmental risks.

  4. Methodology for qualitative uncertainty assessment of climate impact indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Juliane; Keup-Thiel, Elke; Rechid, Diana; Hänsler, Andreas; Pfeifer, Susanne; Roth, Ellinor; Jacob, Daniela

    2016-04-01

    The FP7 project "Climate Information Portal for Copernicus" (CLIPC) is developing an integrated platform of climate data services to provide a single point of access for authoritative scientific information on climate change and climate change impacts. In this project, the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) has been in charge of the development of a methodology on how to assess the uncertainties related to climate impact indicators. Existing climate data portals mainly treat the uncertainties in two ways: Either they provide generic guidance and/or express with statistical measures the quantifiable fraction of the uncertainty. However, none of the climate data portals give the users a qualitative guidance how confident they can be in the validity of the displayed data. The need for such guidance was identified in CLIPC user consultations. Therefore, we aim to provide an uncertainty assessment that provides the users with climate impact indicator-specific guidance on the degree to which they can trust the outcome. We will present an approach that provides information on the importance of different sources of uncertainties associated with a specific climate impact indicator and how these sources affect the overall 'degree of confidence' of this respective indicator. To meet users requirements in the effective communication of uncertainties, their feedback has been involved during the development process of the methodology. Assessing and visualising the quantitative component of uncertainty is part of the qualitative guidance. As visual analysis method, we apply the Climate Signal Maps (Pfeifer et al. 2015), which highlight only those areas with robust climate change signals. Here, robustness is defined as a combination of model agreement and the significance of the individual model projections. Reference Pfeifer, S., Bülow, K., Gobiet, A., Hänsler, A., Mudelsee, M., Otto, J., Rechid, D., Teichmann, C. and Jacob, D.: Robustness of Ensemble Climate Projections

  5. Danish forestry and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larsen, J.B.; Saxe, H.

    2001-01-01

    Results from Danish experimental field and chamber studies indicate that in general the projected climatic changes are likely to promote tree growth especially for those trees, which have their northern limit in southern Scandinavia. The only major species which will experience a setback, is Norway Spruce - unfortunately however so far the most common commercially planted tree in Denmark. (LN)

  6. Technology and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrison, R.; Layzell, D.; McLean, G.

    2001-01-01

    This paper provides a context for assessing the needs for technologies to reduce the concentration of GHG in the atmosphere. It looks at sources, sinks and trends for GHG, in the world at large and in Canada, and at efforts to develop new technologies to achieve the goals of climate change policy. Technology development is one of many approaches to reducing emissions and absorbing GHG from the atmosphere. New technologies will be more successful if they can also achieve non-climate goals, such as better air quality or reduced soil erosion. This paper examines sectors where new technology may be most needed. In general these will be areas where emissions are large, or growing rapidly, or both. It focuses on transport, electricity and biomass as sectors of interest, both because of their potential for contributing to climate change policy goals within Canada, and also because of the author's own research interests. (author)

  7. Spatiotemporal changes of freezing/thawing indices and their response to recent climate change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1980 to 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Tonghua; Qin, Yanhui; Wu, Xiaodong; Li, Ren; Zou, Defu; Xie, Changwei

    2018-05-01

    The spatial and temporal changes of the ground surface freezing indices (GFIs), ground surface thawing indices (GTIs), air freezing indices (AFIs), and air thawing indices (ATIs) in permafrost and seasonally frozen ground regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) were analyzed based on the daily ground surface and air temperatures from 69 meteorological stations using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimate. The spatial patterns of the freezing indices (FIs) and thawing indices (TIs) are nearly negatively correlated. On the annual scale, the GFI and GTI are greater than the AFI and ATI in both permafrost and seasonally frozen ground regions. The marked upward and downward trends have been observed for the time series of TI and FI, respectively, since 1998 on the QTP. Moreover, GFI and AFI decrease more significantly in permafrost regions than in seasonally frozen ground regions; the increasing rate of GTI and ATI in the seasonally frozen ground regions is greater than that in the permafrost regions. In permafrost regions, the downward trend of FI is greater than the upward trend of TI. However, the upward trend of TI shows a more drastic change than the FI in the seasonally frozen ground regions. The results indicate that the warming in the permafrost regions is more pronounced in winter than in the other seasons. The summer warming is more pronounced than the other seasons in the seasonally frozen ground regions. The decreasing rate of AFI and GFI increases as the altitude rises, while they decrease with increasing ATI. The average decreasing rate of GFI is greater than that of the AFI in different altitudinal zones. The greatest decrease of FI occurs in permafrost regions in the hinterland of the QTP, which indicates the dominant winter warming in this region. The downward trend of FI and upward trend of TI are responsible for the reported permafrost degradation on the QTP.

  8. Indicators of climate impacts for forests: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment indicators system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda S. Heath; Sarah M. Anderson; Marla R. Emery; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Jeremy Littell; Alan Lucier; Jeffrey G. Masek; David L. Peterson; Richard Pouyat; Kevin M. Potter; Guy Robertson; Jinelle Sperry; Andrzej Bytnerowicz; Sarah Jovan; Miranda H. Mockrin; Robert Musselman; Bethany K. Schulz; Robert J. Smith; Susan I. Stewart

    2015-01-01

    The Third National Climate Assessment (NCA) process for the United States focused in part on developing a system of indicators to communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness to inform decisionmakers and the public. Initially, 13 active teams were formed to recommend indicators in a range of categories, including...

  9. Generating and Visualizing Climate Indices using Google Earth Engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, T. A.; Guentchev, G.; Rood, R. B.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have largest impacts on regional and local scales. Relevant and credible climate information is needed to support the planning and adaptation efforts in our communities. The volume of climate projections of temperature and precipitation is steadily increasing, as datasets are being generated on finer spatial and temporal grids with an increasing number of ensembles to characterize uncertainty. Despite advancements in tools for querying and retrieving subsets of these large, multi-dimensional datasets, ease of access remains a barrier for many existing and potential users who want to derive useful information from these data, particularly for those outside of the climate modelling research community. Climate indices, that can be derived from daily temperature and precipitation data, such as annual number of frost days or growing season length, can provide useful information to practitioners and stakeholders. For this work the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset was loaded into Google Earth Engine, a cloud-based geospatial processing platform. Algorithms that use the Earth Engine API to generate several climate indices were written. The indices were chosen from the set developed by the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Simple user interfaces were created that allow users to query, produce maps and graphs of the indices, as well as download results for additional analyses. These browser-based interfaces could allow users in low-bandwidth environments to access climate information. This research shows that calculating climate indices from global downscaled climate projection datasets and sharing them widely using cloud computing technologies is feasible. Further development will focus on exposing the climate indices to existing applications via the Earth Engine API, and building custom user interfaces for presenting climate indices to a diverse set of

  10. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carmin, J.; Tierney, K.; Chu, E.; Hunter, L.M.; Roberts, J.T.; Shi, L.; Dunlap, R.E.; Brulle, R.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the

  11. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Cathy Egan

    resources to cope with climate change impacts such as desertification, soil erosion, and ... By 2050, per capita availability of water is predicted to fall by 50% in the ... release methane, a greenhouse gas, ... and on flood plains in Nepal and India is the thrust of collaborative research ... resilience of agricultural systems.

  12. Climate change and schools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sheffield, Perry E.; Uijttewaal, Simone A.M.; Stewart, James; Galvez, Maida P.

    2017-01-01

    The changing climate is creating additional challenges in maintaining a healthy school environment in the United States (US) where over 50 million people, mostly children, spend approximately a third of their waking hours. Chronic low prioritization of funds and resources to support environmental

  13. Climate change reference guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    At the heart of climate change is the greenhouse effect, in which molecules of various gases trap heat in Earths atmosphere and keep it warm enough to support life. Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) are an important part of Ea...

  14. DTU Climate Change Technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    During 2008 and 2009, DTU held a workshop series focusing on assessment of and adaption to climate changes as well as on mitigation of green house gasses. In the workshops, a total of 1500 scientists, government officials and business leaders have outlined scenarios for technology development...

  15. Climate change and adaptation policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Jamie [Policy Research Initiative, Ottawa, ON (Canada); Lavender, B. [Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada); Smit, B. [Guelph Univ., ON (Canada). Dept. of Geography; Burton, I.

    2001-12-31

    In this document the authors indicate that some level of adaptation will be required as climate change affects our lives. They narrowed their examination to three sectors of Canadian society: human health, agriculture, and northern communities and infrastructure. Within each sector they discussed the policy research needs and the adaptation problems to be expected. Uncertainties remain concerning the magnitude of climate change, its timing and consequences, and further research is required to reduce the uncertainties. Canada presents certain vulnerabilities, and to enhance and improve the resilience of the population toward climate change, some adaptation measures must be put in place to reduce the vulnerabilities. Confidence will come as a by-product of the leadership required to bring about the required adaptation measures, and cooperation is a must between all levels of government, the private sector and society to reach agreement.

  16. Africa and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toulmin, Camilla; Huq, Saleemul

    2006-10-15

    Remember the scenes from New Orleans of flooded streets and scavenging people? One year on and little progress is evident in achieving the step-change needed in controlling greenhouse gases. Hurricane Katrina showed only too vividly the massive power of natural forces combined with inadequate preparation. The flood waters washed away and exposed fully the lack of planning and low priority given to securing life and livelihoods, especially of the more vulnerable groups in the community. If this is what a whirlwind can bring in the southern USA, what might we reap in further storms and droughts tomorrow in poorer parts of the world? New research findings point to the likelihood of larger, faster and more substantial changes to our climate system. The African continent is particularly vulnerable to adverse changes in climate, the evidence for which is becoming more and more stark.

  17. Climate change and coasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schellnhuber, H.J.; Sterr, H.

    1993-01-01

    The investigation of climatic processes and behaviour examines the effects of climatic changes on human beings and the surrounding environment. The authors discuss, in a wide-subject perspective, the regional impacts of the greenhouse effect, increase of the sea level, and changed conditions of both precipitation and wind using the North and Baltic Sea as examples. In this effort, questions dealing with changes of water level, motion and (disturbance) of the sea and morphodynamic in the coastal apron, in reference to requirements on a future protection of the shore, are handled. In addition, not only the aspects of ecosystem-orientated adaption in the strip of land between the continent northern islands 'Wattenmeer' and ground landscape (Bodenlandschaft) are taken into consideration, but also the impact of these on human beings and their interest to use the coastal regions. (orig.). 102 figs., 9 tabs [de

  18. Chapter 7 - Climate effects on lichen indicators for nitrogen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarah Jovan

    2014-01-01

    The Lichen Communities Indicator is a sensitive indicator of forest health changes caused by air quality, climate change, and other stressors. To date, more than 8,000 epiphytic lichen surveys have been collected across the Nation by the Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) and Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) Programs and their partners (table 7.1; Phelan and others 2012)....

  19. Challenges and solutions for climate change

    CERN Document Server

    Gaast, Wytze

    2012-01-01

    The latest scientific knowledge on climate change indicates that higher greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere through unchecked emissions will provoke severe climate change and ocean acidification threatening environmental structures on which humanity relies. Climate change therefore poses major socio-economic, technical and environmental challenges which will have serious impacts on countries’ pathways towards sustainable development. As a result, climate change and sustainable development have increasingly become interlinked. A changing climate makes achieving Millennium Development Goals more difficult and expensive, so there is every reason to achieve development goals with low greenhouse gas emissions. This leads to the following five challenges discussed by Challenges and Solutions for Climate Change: To place climate negotiations in the wider context of sustainability, equity and social change so that development benefits can be maximised at the same time as decreasing greenhouse gas emissi...

  20. Global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gugele, B.; Radunsky, K.; Spangl, W.

    2002-01-01

    In the last decade marked changes of climatic factors have been observed, such as increases in average global earth temperatures, the amount of precipitation and the number of extreme weather events. Green house gases influence the energy flow in the atmosphere by absorbing infra-red radiation. An overview of the Austrian greenhouse gas emissions is given, including statistical data and their major sources. In 1999 the emissions of all six Kyoto greenhouse gases ( CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, HFC s , PFC s and SF 6 ) amounted to 79.2 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalents . A comparison between the EC Members states is also presented. Finally the climate change strategy prepared by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management together with other ministries and the federal provinces is discussed, which main aim is to lead to an annual emission reduction of 16 million tonnes of CO 2 . Figs. 2, Tables 1. (nevyjel)

  1. Climate change and amphibians

    OpenAIRE

    Corn, P. S.

    2005-01-01

    Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines i...

  2. Climate Change Justice

    OpenAIRE

    Sunstein, Cass R.; Posner, Eric A.

    2007-01-01

    Greenhouse gas reductions would cost some nations much more than others and benefit some nations far less than others. Significant reductions would impose especially large costs on the United States, and recent projections suggest that the United States has relatively less to lose from climate change. In these circumstances, what does justice require the United States to do? Many people believe that the United States is required to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions beyond the point that is ...

  3. Climate Change Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Toman, Michael; Shogren, Jason

    2000-01-01

    Having risen from relative obscurity as few as ten years ago, climate change now looms large among environmental policy issues. Its scope is global; the potential environmental and economic impacts are ubiquitous; the potential restrictions on human choices touch the most basic goals of people in all nations; and the sheer scope of the potential response—a significant shift away from using fossil fuels as the primary energy source in the modern economy—is daunting. In this paper, we explore t...

  4. A forward looking, actor based, indicator for climate gas emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ericson, Torgeir; Randers, Joergen

    2011-04-15

    The most commonly used Norwegian indicator for climate change displays historical emissions and compare with Norway's Kyoto target. This indicator says little about future emissions, about the ongoing Norwegian effort to reduce climate gas emissions, or about its effect on sustainability. In this paper we propose an indicator that improves on these weaknesses. We present a forward looking climate indicator that in addition to historic data includes business as usual scenarios, different proposals for future domestic emissions, and national or international commitments and agreements. This indicator presents - in one graph - a broad diversity of views on how the climate challenge should be handled from now and into the future. This indicator-graph may contribute to a more transparent discussion of available policy options. (Author)

  5. Managing Climate Change Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB1 Aspendale, Victoria 3195 (Australia)

    2003-07-01

    Issues of uncertainty, scale and delay between action and response mean that 'dangerous' climate change is best managed within a risk assessment framework that evolves as new information is gathered. Risk can be broadly defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence; the latter measured as vulnerability to greenhouse-induced climate change. The most robust way to assess climate change damages in a probabilistic framework is as the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance. Because vulnerability is dominated by local factors, global vulnerability is the aggregation of many local impacts being forced beyond their coping ranges. Several case studies, generic sea level rise and temperature, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and water supply in an Australian catchment, are used to show how local risk assessments can be assessed then expressed as a function of global warming. Impacts treated thus can be aggregated to assess global risks consistent with Article 2 of the UNFCCC. A 'proof of concept' example is then used to show how the stabilisation of greenhouse gases can constrain the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds at both the both local and global scale. This analysis suggests that even if the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages can be estimated, the likelihood of being able to meet a cost-benefit target is limited by both physical and socio-economic uncertainties. In terms of managing climate change risks, adaptation will be most effective at reducing vulnerability likely to occur at low levels of warming. Successive efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases will reduce the likelihood of reaching levels of global warming from the top down, with the highest potential temperatures being avoided first, irrespective of contributing scientific uncertainties. This implies that the first cuts in emissions will always produce the largest economic benefits in terms of avoided

  6. A Kantian approach to a sustainable development indicator for climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greaker, Mads; Stoknes, Per Espen; Alfsen, Knut H.; Ericson, Torgeir

    2012-11-01

    How can the informed citizen know if the government is implementing a good-enough climate change policy? Most developed democracies have their own set of indicators for sustainable development, including indicators for climate change. These include yearly national emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHGs), global concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere and time series for global temperatures. However, without some kind of benchmark neither national emissions of GHGs nor global concentration of GHGs or temperatures, make it possible for the general public to evaluate the current climate policy of a nation state. In this paper we propose a benchmark for national climate policy based on a remaining Co2 budget allocated by egalitarian principles. Moreover, based on Kantian ethics we argue that this benchmark should be used as a sustainable development indicator for climate change. One way of interpreting Kantian ethics is to demand that each nation state should act as if a just global treaty on climate change were in place. We discuss possible important elements in a global treaty, and show how the different elements can be integrated in a forward-looking indicator of national climate policy.(auth)

  7. Stop the climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tissot, B.

    2003-04-01

    This book tries to answer today's main environmental questions relative to the climatic change: how our massive petroleum and coal consumption has led to a greenhouse effect? What will happen tomorrow when Chinese and Indian people will reach the same energy consumption levels as people of western countries? Is it too late to reverse the trend? If solar energy is the long-term solution, what can we do in the meantime? The author presents the conditions we must fulfill to keep the Earth in a good environmental condition: 1 - a brief story of energy; 2 - the climatic changes and their secrets; 3 - the greenhouse effect: necessary for life but worrying for the future; 4 - the energy demand and the stakes; 2 - fossil fuels: abundance or shortage? 6 - can we fight against greenhouse gases? 7 - the nuclear energy (reactors and wastes management); 8 - the renewable energies: a necessary contribution at the century scale and the unique answer at the millennium scale; 9 - the time of main choices is not so far; 10 - two questions (energy demand and climatic change) and a unique answer (sustainable development). (J.S.)

  8. The adaptation to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Gameren, Valentine; Weikmans, Romain; Zaccai, Edwin

    2014-01-01

    The authors address the issue of adaptation to climate change. They first address the physical aspects related to this issue: scenarios of temperature evolution, main possible impacts. Then, they address the social impacts related to climate risks, and the adaptation strategies which aim at reducing the exposure and vulnerability of human societies, or at increasing their resilience. Some examples of losses of human lives and of economic damages due to recent catastrophes related to climate change are evoked. The authors address the international framework, the emergence of an international regime on climate, the quite recent emergence of adaptation within international negotiations in 2001, the emergence of the idea of a support to developing countries. National and local policies are presented in the next chapter (in the European Union, the Netherlands which are faced with the issue of sea level rise, programs in developing countries) and their limitations are also outlined. The next chapter addresses the adaptation actions performed by private actors (enterprises, households, associations, civil society, and so on) with example of vulnerability, and adaptation opportunities and possibilities in some specific sectors. The last chapter presents a typology of actions of adaptation, indicators of adaptation to climate change, and examples of mistaken adaptation

  9. Tree thermometers and commodities: historic climate indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Libby, L.M.; Pandolfi, L.J.

    1979-01-01

    In four modern trees, hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios track the modern temperature records. In a 2000-yr sequence of a Japanese cedar, there are the same periodicities of variation of D/H and O 18 /O 16 as have been found in O 18 /O 16 in a Greenland ice well. The same periodicities are found in uranium and organic carbon concentrations versus depth in a sea core from the Santa Barbara Channel, and in carbon-14 variations in a sequence of Bristlecone pine from southern California. In a 2000-yr sequence of Japanese cedar and in a 1000-yr sequence of European oak D/H and O 18 /O 16 are related to each other by a slope of 8, just as they are in world-wide precipitation. In a 72-yr sequence of Sequoia gigantea, measured year by year for its oxygen isotope ratios, the 10.5-yr cycle of sunspot numbers found, but not the 21-yr cycle of sunspot magnetism; this we believe indicates that the sun is affecting the earth's climate with non-magnetic particles, probably photons. All these phenomena are related to periodic changes in sea surface temperature caused by periodic changes in the sun. (author)

  10. The Water Level Fall of Lake Megali Prespa (N Greece): an Indicator of Regional Water Stress Driven by Climate Change and Amplified by Water Extraction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Schriek, Tim; Giannakopoulos, Christos

    2014-05-01

    Mediterranean wet-dry events during this period. There are robust indications for a link between lake level and the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is known to strongly influence Mediterranean winter precipitation. Hydro-climatic records show a complicated picture, but tentatively support the conclusion that the unprecedented lake level fall is principally related to climate change. The available fluvial discharge record and most existing snowfall records show statistically significant decreases in annual averages. Annual rainfall only shows a statistically significant decrease of the 25th percentile; 7-month rainfall (Oct-Apr) additionally shows a statistically significant but non-robust decrease of the mean. The modest amount of water extraction (annually: ~14*103m3, ~0.004% of total lake volume) exerts a progressive and significant impact on lake level over the longer term, accounting for ~25% of the observed fall. Lake level lowering ends when lake-surface area shrinkage has led to a decrease in lake-surface evaporation that is equivalent to the amount of water extracted. The adjustment of lake level to stable extraction rates requires two to three decades. This work aims to steer adaptation and mitigation strategies by informing on lake response under different climate change and extraction scenarios. Lake protection is a cost effective solution for supporting global biodiversity and for providing sustainable water resources.

  11. Papers of the CWRA climate change symposium : understanding climate change impacts on Manitoba's water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This symposium provided an opportunity for discussions on climate change issues with particular reference to the impacts on Manitoba's water resources. The presentations addressed issues of importance to governments, scientists, academics, managers, consultants and the general public. Topics of discussion ranged from climate change impacts on water quality, wetlands, hydropower, fisheries and drought, to adaptation to climate change. Recent advances in global and regional climate modelling were highlighted along with paleo-environmental indicators of climate change. The objective was to provide a better understanding of the science of climate change. The conference featured 16 presentations of which 1 was indexed separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs

  12. Sustain : the climate change challenge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    This special report on climate change and greenhouse gas emissions focused on widely held current opinions which indicate that average global surface temperatures are increasing. The potential consequences of climate change can include rising sea levels, drought storms, disease, and mass migration of people. While the global climate change theory is widely accepted, the report warns that there are still many uncertainties about how climate change occurs and what processes can offset human-caused emissions. Canada produces about 2 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon dioxide comprises 80 per cent of Canada's total emissions. It is well known that Canadians place a heavy demand on energy to heat and light their homes because of the northern climate, and on transportation fuels to move people, goods and services across vast distances. With the Kyoto Protocol of December 1997, developed countries agreed to legally binding greenhouse gas emission reductions of at least five per cent by 2008 to 2012. Canada agreed to a six per cent reduction below 1990 levels by 2010. Although Canada signed the Kyoto Protocol, it does not intend to ratify it until an implementation strategy has been developed with broad support. The goal is to develop a strategy by 1999. The oil and gas industry has in general improved its efficiency and reduced emissions on a per unit of production basis by installing new equipment and new operating practices that reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, and improve energy efficiency. The industry is conscious of its responsibility, and while not fully in agreement with the environmental doomsayers, it is prepared to take proactive actions now, albeit on a voluntary basis. What the industry wants is a balance between environmental and economic responsibility. E missions trading' and 'joint implementation' are seen as two important tools to tackle climate change on a global basis. 4 figs

  13. The neurobiology of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Sean

    2018-01-06

    Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.

  14. The neurobiology of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Sean

    2018-02-01

    Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.

  15. Climate change and skin disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundgren, Ashley D

    2018-04-01

    Despite commanding essentially universal scientific consensus, climate change remains a divisive and poorly understood topic in the United States. Familiarity with this subject is not just for climate scientists. The impact of climate change on human morbidity and mortality may be considerable; thus, physicians also should be knowledgeable in this realm. Climate change science can seem opaque and inferential, creating fertile ground for political polemics and undoubtedly contributing to confusion among the general public. This puts physicians in a pivotal position to facilitate a practical understanding of climate change in the public sphere by discussing changes in disease patterns and their possible relationship to a changing climate. This article provides a background on climate change for dermatologists and highlights how climate change may impact the management of skin disease across the United States.

  16. Market strategies for climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.M.

    2004-01-01

    The issue of climate change has attracted increasing business attention in the past decade. Whereas companies initially aimed primarily at influencing the policy debate, corporate strategies increasingly include economic responses. Existing classifications for climate change strategies however still

  17. Spatial and temporal Teleconnections of Sea Surface Temperature and Ocean Indices to regional Climate Variations across Thailand - a Pathway to understanding the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bejranonda, Werapol; Koch, Manfred

    2010-05-01

    Thailand has a long coastline with the Pacific Ocean, as part of the Gulf of Thailand, as well as with the Indian Ocean, as part of the Andaman Sea. Because of this peculiar location, Thailand's local climate and, in particular, its water resources are strongly influenced by the mix of tropical wet, tropical dry and tropical monsoon seasons. Because of the large seasonal and interannual variations and irregularities of these, mainly ocean-driven weather patterns, particularly in recent times, large-scale water storage in huge river-fed reservoirs has a long tradition in Thailand, providing water for urban, industrial and agricultural use during long dry seasonal periods. These reservoirs which are located all over Thailand gather water primarily from monsoon-driven rainfall during the wet season which, usually, lasts from May to October. During the dry season, November to April, when the monsoon winds move northward, the air masses are drier in central and northern Thailand, with rain falling here only a few days in a month. Southern Thailand, on the other hand, which is constituted mostly by the isthmus between the two oceans, stays even hot and humid during that time period. Because of this tropical climate pattern, the surface water resources in most of Thailand strongly hinge on the monsoon movements which, in turn, depend themselves upon the thermal states of the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Therefore, the understanding of the recent strong seasonal and interannual climate variations with their detrimental effects on the availability of hydrological water resources in most parts of Thailand, must include the analysis of changes of various sea-state indices in the adjacent oceans and of their possible teleconnections with regional climate indices across this country. With the modern coupled atmospheric-ocean models being able to predict the variations of many ocean indices over a period of several months, namely, those driven by El Nino- Southern Oscillations

  18. Climate Change and Forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Omenda, T.O

    1997-01-01

    The causes for climatic change in the period between 3000 and 1250 BC was different from what present scenario portends. After industrialization, temperatures has arisen by 0.5 degrees centigrade every 100 years since factories started to spew out smoke. Over the last two centuries, the concentration of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by more than 25% from about 275ppm in the 18th Century to more than 350ppm at the present time while the current level is expected to double by the year 2050. The increase in Carbon Dioxide and together with other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will trap the sun's radiation causing the mean global temperatures to rise by between 1 degree and 5 degrees centigrade by 2050. The climatic change affects forestry in many ways for instance, temperatures determines the rate at which enzymes catalyze biochemical reactions while solar radiation provide the energy which drive light reactions in photosynthesis. On the other hand, water which is a component of climate is a universal solvent which enables plants to transport nutrients through the transpirational stream, and similarly transport photosynthates from the leave to all parts of the plants. It is a raw material for photosynthesis and important for maintaining turgidity, which is important for growth

  19. Climatic change and impacts: a general introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fantechi, R.; Almeida-Teixeira, M.E.; Maracchi, G.

    1991-01-01

    These proceedings are divided into six parts containing 29 technical papers. 1. An Overview of the Climatic System, 2. Past climate Changes, 3. Climate Processes and Climate Modelling, 4. Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change, 5. Climatic Impacts, 6. STUDENTS' PAPERS

  20. Climate Change and Natural Disasters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Merkouris, Panos; Negri, Stefania; Maljean-Dubois, Sandrine

    2014-01-01

    Only 21 years ago, in 1992, the first ever convention on climate change, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was signed. The science behind studying climate change and its effects on the environment is not only mind-boggling but still in its infancy. It should come

  1. Climate change and the biosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    F. Stuart Chapin

    2008-01-01

    Scientific assessments now clearly demonstrate the ecologic and societal consequences of human induced climate change, as detailed by the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Global warming spells danger for Earth's biomes, which in turn play an important role in climate change. On the following pages, you will read about some of...

  2. How Does The Climate Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, R. N.

    2011-12-01

    In 1997, maximum temperature in SE Australia shifted up by 0.8°C at pH0impact indicators: baumé levels in winegrapes shift >21 days earlier from 1998, streamflow records decrease by 30-70% from 1997 and annual mean forest fire danger index increased by 38% from 1997. Despite catastrophic fires killing 178 people in early 2009, the public remains unaware of this large change in their exposure. When regional temperature was separated into internally and externally forced components, the latter component was found to warm in two steps, in 1968-73 and 1997. These dates coincide with shifts in zonal mean temperature (24-44S; Figure 1). Climate model output shows similar step and trend behavior. Tests run on zonal, hemispheric and global mean temperature observations found shifts in all regions. 1997 marks a shift in global temperature of 0.3°C at pH0ocean heat content. The prevailing paradigm for how climate variables change is signal-noise construct combining a smooth signal with variations caused by internal climate variability. There seems to be no sound theoretical basis for this assumption. On the contrary, complex system behavior would suggest non-linear responses to externally forced change, especially at the regional scale. Some of our most basic assumptions about how climate changes may need to be re-examined.

  3. Agriculture and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abelson, P.H.

    1992-01-01

    How will increases in levels of CO 2 and changes in temperature affect food production? A recently issued report analyzes prospects for US agriculture 1990 to 2030. The report, prepared by a distinguished Task Force, first projects the evolution of agriculture assuming increased levels of CO 2 but no climate change. Then it deals with effects of climate change, followed by a discussion of how greenhouse emissions might be diminished by agriculture. Economic and policy matters are also covered. How the climate would respond to more greenhouse gases is uncertain. If temperatures were higher, there would be more evaporation and more precipitation. Where would the rain fall? That is a good question. Weather in a particular locality is not determined by global averages. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s could be repeated at its former site or located in another region such as the present Corn Belt. But depending on the realities at a given place, farmers have demonstrated great flexibility in choosing what they may grow. Their flexibility has been increased by the numerous varieties of seeds of major crops that are now available, each having different characteristics such as drought resistance and temperature tolerance. In past, agriculture has contributed about 5% of US greenhouse gases. Two large components have involved emissions of CO 2 from farm machinery and from oxidation of organic matter in soil due to tillage. Use of diesel fuel and more efficient machinery has reduced emissions from that source by 40%. In some areas changed tillage practices are now responsible for returning carbon to the soil. The report identifies an important potential for diminishing net US emissions of CO 2 by growth and utilization of biomass. Large areas are already available that could be devoted to energy crops

  4. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change.

    OpenAIRE

    Schiavon, Stefano; Zecchin, Roberto

    2007-01-01

    Politiche, misure e strumenti per contenere le emissioni di CO2 Illustriamo l’ultimo contributo al quarto Rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici votato a maggio 2007 dal terzo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato intergovernativo “Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”. Il Rapporto affronta la problematica delle tendenze delle emissioni dei gas serra e il tema della mitigazione a breve e lungo termine. Presentiamo un’analisi critica delle proposte del documento.

  5. The climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvo Redondo, A.; Rodriguez Eustaquio, A.; Sanchez y Llorente, J.M.; Luis y Hernandez, S.; Panero Santos, C.; Gomez Cubero, J.A.; Arias-Camison Hernandez, J.C.

    1994-01-01

    This paper has been developed to show how the future of the climate of our planet could become. The factors that takes places in this possible change are also carefully explained. The human action over the environment is probably disturbing the atmospheric system. The processes that involves this perturbations are shown: pollution, fires in hugh regions such as Amazonia Central Australia, Central and East Africa and some others. Factors like these seems are destroying the ozone shell. We also explain the problems to be sure that the expectatives for the future are reliable. Finally, we propose some solutions for this situation. Special situations like nuclear winter or the desertization are also included. (Author)

  6. Energy and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadena, Angela Ines

    2000-01-01

    Human intervention in the carbon cycle has become a relevant concern in recent times. Global warming is a phenomenon due to the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG-s) carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons, believed to be irreversible. CO 2 is the most important GHG its contribution to the radioactive forcing of climate is estimated in about 70%. Changes in the global concentration of these gases depend on the level of emissions as a by-product of economic activities, the natural assimilative capacity of the global ecosystem, and the abatement activities. The paper include the Colombian situation

  7. Interdisciplinarity, Climate, and Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2016-12-01

    Interdisciplinarity has become synonymous with all things progressive about research and education. This is so not simply because of a philosophical belief in the heterogeneity of knowledge but because of the scientific and social complexities of problems of major concern. The increased demand for improved climate knowledge and information has increased pressure to support planning under changing rates of extremes event occurrence, is well-documented. The application of useful climate data, information and knowledge requires multiple networks and information services infrastructure that support planning and implementation. As widely quoted, Pasteur's quadrant is a label given to a class of scientific research methodologies that seeks fundamental understanding of scientific problems and, simultaneously, to benefit society-what Stokes called "use-inspired research". Innovation, in this context, has been defined as "the process by which individuals and organizations generate new ideas and put them into practice". A growing number of research institutes and programs have begun developing a cadre of professionals focused on integrating basic and applied research in areas such as climate risk assessment and adaptation. There are now several examples of where researchers and teams have crafted examples that include affected communities. In this presentation we will outline the lessons from several efforts including the PACE program, the RISAs, NIDIS, the Climate Services Information System and other interdisciplinary service-oriented efforts in which the author has been involved. Some early lessons include the need to: Recognize that key concerns of social innovation go beyond the projections of climate and other global changes to embrace multiple methods Continue to train scientists of all stripes of disciplinary norms, but higher education should also prepare students who plan to seek careers outside of academia by increasing flexibility in graduate training programs

  8. Climate change issues in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ye Ruqiu (China National Environmental Protection Agency, Beijing (China))

    China is vulnerable to global climate change because of its specific geographical and climatic conditions. Recent climate change trends in China are briefly described. To deal with climate change and reduce the increase in greenhouse gas emissions, a set of strategic measures aimed at harmonizing environmental protection and economic development have been worked out. Special attention has been given to the analysis of problems of energy efficiency and energy structure. Preliminary policy consideration is discussed. 8 refs., 3 tabs.

  9. Climate change issues in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ye Ruqiu

    1994-01-01

    China is vulnerable to global climate change because of its specific geographical and climatic conditions. Recent climate change trends in China are briefly described. To deal with climate change and reduce the increase in greenhouse gas emissions, a set of strategic measures aimed at harmonizing environmental protection and economic development have been worked out. Special attention has been given to the analysis of problems of energy efficiency and energy structure. Preliminary policy consideration is discussed. (author). 8 refs, 3 tabs

  10. Our knowledge on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turkenburg, W.C.; Van Wijk, A.J.M.

    1991-01-01

    A workshop was organised to evaluate and discuss the report 'Scientific Assessment of Climate Change (1990)' of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Thirty prominent Dutch experts in the field attended the workshop. The introductions and discussions held on our knowledge of climatic change as a result of the growth of the greenhouse effect caused by the emission of greenhouse gases from human actions are presented. It is concluded that the IPCC-report shows in a clear and balanced way the certainties and uncertainties in our knowledge of climate change. There is a large chance that the earth's climate will change considerably, if the policy remains unamended. 15 figs., 2 apps

  11. Climate change research - Danish contributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joergensen, A.M.K.; Fenger, J.; Halsnaes, K.

    2001-01-01

    The book describes a series of Danish scientific and technical studies. They broadly reflect the fields and disciplines embraced by assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but with an emphasis on natural sciences (i.e. climate investigations and impact studies). After the general introduction, that presents the issue and gives a summary of the content of the book, the chapters are organised in four parts: 1. The Climate System and Climate Variations. 2. Climate Change Scenarios. 3. Impacts of Climate Change. 4. Policy Aspects. Each chapter is indexed separately. (LN)

  12. The Ecological consequences of global climate change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Woodward, F. I

    1992-01-01

    ... & land use - modeling potential responses of vegetation to global climate change - effects of climatic change on population dynamics of crop pests - responses of soils to climate change - predicting...

  13. Impacts of climate change on the microbial safety of pre-harvest leafy green vegetables as indicated by Escherichia coli O157 and Salmonella spp.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, C.; Hofstra, N.; Franz, E.

    2013-01-01

    The likelihood of leafy green vegetable (LGV) contamination and the associated pathogen growth and survival are strongly related to climatic conditions. Particularly temperature increase and precipitation pattern changes have a close relationship not only with the fate and transport of enteric

  14. Climate Change and Civil Violence

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vink, G.; Plancherel, Y.; Hennet, C.; Jones, K. D.; Abdullah, A.; Bradshaw, J.; Dee, S.; Deprez, A.; Pasenello, M.; Plaza-Jennings, E.; Roseman, D.; Sopher, P.; Sung, E.

    2009-05-01

    The manifestations of climate change can result in humanitarian impacts that reverse progress in poverty- reduction, create shortages of food and resources, lead to migration, and ultimately result in civil violence and conflict. Within the continent of Africa, we have found that environmentally-related variables are either the cause or the confounding factor for over 80% of the civil violence events during the last 10 years. Using predictive climate models and land-use data, we are able to identify populations in Africa that are likely to experience the most severe climate-related shocks. Through geospatial analysis, we are able to overlay these areas of high risk with assessments of both the local population's resiliency and the region's capacity to respond to climate shocks should they occur. The net result of the analysis is the identification of locations that are becoming particularly vulnerable to future civil violence events (vulnerability hotspots) as a result of the manifestations of climate change. For each population group, over 600 social, economic, political, and environmental indicators are integrated statistically to measures the vulnerability of African populations to environmental change. The indicator time-series are filtered for data availability and redundancy, broadly ordered into four categories (social, political, economic and environmental), standardized and normalized. Within each category, the dominant modes of variability are isolated by principal component analysis and the loadings of each component for each variable are used to devise composite index scores. Comparisons of past vulnerability with known environmentally-related conflicts demonstrates the role that such vulnerability hotspot maps can play in evaluating both the potential for, and the significance of, environmentally-related civil violence events. Furthermore, the analysis reveals the major variables that are responsible for the population's vulnerability and therefore

  15. Living with climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beltzner, K [ed.

    1976-03-01

    The effects of global warming on economies and societies are discussed. The history of past climate changes in North America is summarized, ranging from short period variations to changes over centuries and millenia. To aid in forecasting the effects of future climatic variation, historical episodes that have had well documented socio-economic effects are examined. These episodes include: the variability period of 1895-1905 characterized by cool climate, wet periods in the northwestern great plains, sustained drought in the Pacific northwest, extreme cold in the gulf states, and the Galveston flood; the midwestern drought of 1933-1937, characterized by drought on the great plains, very cold snowy winters, hot summers, and massive soil erosion; 1935-36, characterized by a very cold winter and a very hot summer; the Mexican drought of 1937-45, characterized by recurrent drought in Mexico; the variable period of 1950-1958, characterized by Pacific coast drought, drought and flood on the great plains, cold and warm winters and summers, wheat rust, coastal storms and forest fires; the Eastern urban drought of 1961-66 characterized by sustained cold drought in eastern North America; the sea ice period of 1964-65 and 1971-72, characterized by heavy sea ice; snowfall period of 1970-74 characterized by heavy winter snowfalls and a late, wet spring; and the global interdependence period of 1972 characterized by cold winters in Canada and USSR, drought in Asia, the Sahel, Australia, central America, floods in North Africa, high ocean surface temperatures off Peru, and unusually cold weather in the corn belt. 33 refs., 15 figs., 7 tabs.

  16. Climate change research in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dawson, K.

    1994-01-01

    The current consensus on climatic change in Canada is briefly summarized, noting the results of modelling of the effects of a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 , the nonuniformity of climate change across the country, the uncertainties in local responses to change, and the general agreement that 2-4 degrees of warming will occur for each doubling of CO 2 . Canadian government response includes programs aimed at reducing the uncertainties in the scientific understanding of climate change and in the socio-economic response to such change. Canadian climate change programs include participation in large-scale experiments on such topics as heat transport in the ocean, and sources and sinks of greenhouse gases; development of next-generation climate models; studying the social and economic effects of climate change in the Great Lakes Basin and Mackenzie River Basin; investigation of paleoclimates; and analysis of climate data for long-term trends

  17. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2013-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  18. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2014-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  19. Financing for climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooper, Richard N.

    2012-01-01

    This paper argues that the 2009 pledge of $100 billion in 2020 by rich countries for mitigation and adaptation should not be used for mitigation by commercial firms in developing countries, since that would artificially create competitive advantage for such firms and provoke protectionist reactions in the rich countries where firms must bear the costs of mitigation, thereby undermining the world trading system. The costs of heating the earth's surface should be borne by all emitters, just as the price of copper and other scarce resources is paid by all users, rich or poor. That will still leave scope for rich country help in adaptation to climate change and in bringing to fruition new technologies to reduce emissions. - Highlights: ► Slowing climate change significantly cannot occur without the participation of the largest emitters among developing countries. ► The cost of GHG mitigation must be the same for all competing firms, wherever they are located. ► The world trading system is seriously at risk in the face of a poorly designed system for global mitigation of greenhouse gases. ► No significantly emitting firm, anywhere, public or private, should be protected from the incentive to reduce its emissions. ► Higher prices for fossil fuels need not reduce national growth rates in consuming countries.

  20. Climate Change. Solutions for Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, T.; Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Karoly, D.; Lowe, I.; McMichael, T.; Mitchell, C.; Pearman, G.; Scaife, P.; Reynolds, A. (eds.)

    2004-06-01

    The Australian Climate Group was convened in late 2003 by WWF Australia and the Insurance Australia Group (IAG) in response to the increasing need for action on climate change in Australia. This group proposes a set of solutions to lower the risk that climate change will reach a dangerous level.

  1. Politics of climate change belief

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Donald Trump's actions during the election and his first weeks as US president-elect send a strong message about his belief in climate change, or lack thereof. However, these actions may reflect polarization of climate change beliefs, not climate mitigation behaviour.

  2. Physical, Ecological, and Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, Melissa A.; Chen, Robert; Baptista, Sandra R.; Quattrochi, Dale; O'Brien, Sheila

    2011-01-01

    The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. The current NCA (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/) differs in multiple ways from previous U.S. climate assessment efforts, being: (1) more focused on supporting the Nation s activities in adaptation and mitigation and on evaluating the current state of scientific knowledge relative to climate impacts and trends; (2) a long-term, consistent process for evaluation of climate risks and opportunities and providing information to support decision-making processes within regions and sectors; and (3) establishing a permanent assessment capacity both inside and outside of the federal government. As a part of ongoing, long-term assessment activities, the NCA intends to develop an integrated strategic framework and deploy climate-relevant physical, ecological, and societal indicators. The NCA indicators framework is underdevelopment by the NCA Development and Advisory Committee Indicators Working Group and are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The potential questions that could be addressed by these indicators include: How do we know that there is a changing climate and how is it expected to change in the future? Are important climate impacts and opportunities occurring or predicted to occur in the future? Are we adapting successfully? What are the vulnerabilities and resiliencies given a changing climate? Are we preparing adequately for extreme events? It is not expected that the NCA societal indicators would be linked directly to a single decision or portfolio of

  3. Climate change mitigation through adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hof, Anouschka R.; Dymond, Caren C.; Mladenoff, David J.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is projected to have negative implications for forest ecosystems and their dependent communities and industries. Adaptation studies of forestry practices have focused on maintaining the provisioning of ecosystem services; however, those practices may have implications for climate

  4. Climate Change and Poverty Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Simon

    2011-08-15

    Climate change will make it increasingly difficult to achieve and sustain development goals. This is largely because climate effects on poverty remain poorly understood, and poverty reduction strategies do not adequately support climate resilience. Ensuring effective development in the face of climate change requires action on six fronts: investing in a stronger climate and poverty evidence base; applying the learning about development effectiveness to how we address adaptation needs; supporting nationally derived, integrated policies and programmes; including the climate-vulnerable poor in developing strategies; and identifying how mitigation strategies can also reduce poverty and enable adaptation.

  5. Changing heathlands in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ransijn, Johannes

    Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures are rising and precipitation regimes are changing at global scale. How ecosystem will be affected by global climatic change is dependent on the responses of plants and plant communities. This thesis focuses on how climate change affects heathland...... plant communities. Many heathlands have shifted from dwarf shrub dominance to grass dominance and climatic change might affect the competitive balance between dwarf shrubs and grasses. We looked at heathland vegetation dynamics and heathland plant responses to climatic change at different spatial...... between C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in the same climate change experiment and 5) a study where we compared the responses of shrubland plant communities to experimental warming and recurrent experimental droughts in seven climate change experiments across Europe. Heathland vegetation dynamics are slow...

  6. Climate changes and biodiversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertelsmeier, C.

    2011-01-01

    As some people forecast an average temperature increase between 1 and 3.5 degrees by the end of the century, with higher increases under high latitudes (it could reach 8 degrees in some regions of Canada), other changes will occur: precipitations, sea level rise, reductions in polar ice, extreme climatic events, glacier melting, and so on. The author discusses how these changes will impact biodiversity as they will threat habitat and living conditions of many species. Some studies assess a loss of 15 to 37 per cent of biodiversity by 2050. Moreover, physiology is influenced by temperature: for some species, higher temperatures favour the development of female embryos, or the increase of their population, or may result in an evolution of their reproduction strategy. Life rhythm will also change, for plants as well as for animals. Species will keep on changing their distribution area, but some others will not be able to and are therefore threatened. Finally, as the evolutions concern their vectors, some diseases will spread in new regions

  7. Climate change convention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, D.

    1992-01-01

    Principles that guide Canada's Green Plan with respect to global warming are outlined. These include respect for nature, meeting environmental goals in an economically beneficial manner, efficient use of resources, shared responsibilities, federal leadership, and informed decision making. The policy side of the international Framework Convention on Climate Change is then discussed and related to the Green Plan. The Convention has been signed by 154 nations and has the long-term objective of stabilizing anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at levels that prevent dangerous interference with the climate system. Some of the Convention's commitments toward achieving that objective are only applicable to the developed countries. Five general areas of commitment are emissions reductions, assistance to developing countries, reporting requirements, scientific and socioeconomic research, and education. The most controversial area is that of limiting emissions. The Convention has strong measures for public accountability and is open to future revisions. Canada's Green Plan represents one country's response to the Convention commitments, including a national goal to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at the 1990 level by the year 2000

  8. Climate change and marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Anthony J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Brander, Keith

    2012-01-01

    A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change...... ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC......) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change...

  9. A climate of change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Figueres Olsen, J.M.; Figueres, C.

    2000-01-01

    Global climate change has ceased to be strictly an environmental threat, lurking in the future. Its potential impacts could well make it the greatest social and economic challenge that humanity will have to face in the coming century. The first is competition. An energy revolution is now in the making, with advanced new technologies such as fuel cells, photovoltaics, wind turbines and flywheels entering the market. The reason why we moved beyond the horse and buggy a hundred years ago was not because we ran out of hay. Similarly, there is no doubt that the planet still has impressive oil reserves. However, as was the case when the oil era first emerged, those industries that successfully incorporate the new technologies will be well positioned to succeed economically in the 21 st century

  10. Potential global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    Global economic integration and growth contribute much to the construction of energy plants, vehicles and other industrial products that produces carbon emission and in effect cause the destruction of the environment. A coordinated policy and response worldwide to curb emissions and to effect global climate change must be introduced. Improvement in scientific understanding is required to monitor how much emission reduction is necessary. In the near term, especially in the next seven years, sustained research and development for low carbon or carbon-free energy is necessary. Other measures must also be introduced, such as limiting the use of vehicles, closing down inefficient power plants, etc. In the long term, the use of the electric car, use solar energy, etc. is required. Reforestation must also be considered to absorb large amounts of carbon in the atmosphere

  11. Ethics and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abel, O.; Bard, E.; Berger, A.; Besnier, J.M.; Guesnerie, R.; Serres, M.

    2009-01-01

    Faced with climate change what is the position of scientists, of economists and of political decision makers? And the one of philosophers, of moralists, and of theologians? Finally, what is the position of anyone of us? This question of ethical aspect has been rarely tackled in France so far. Prepared after a colloquium held in Paris in 2009, this book combines scientifical, philosophical, moral and theological perspectives accessible to anyone. It stresses on the novelty and urgency of the ethical thought concerning a question having a strong impact of the humanity future, and more particularly on the future of the most vulnerable of us. If the human being is capable to mobilize himself collectively for a universal cause, he can stay on individualistic positions as well, in particular when he has to care of the fate of the generations to come. This book is a philosophical-scientifical thought which aims at bringing together four main views on this issue. (J.S.)

  12. Competitiveness and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, R.

    2006-01-01

    The author addresses the relationship between competitiveness and climate policy beyond the issue of emission quota trading, and with taking into account links between different activities. For some sectors, demand may depend on measures undertaken to reduce emissions in the transport and building sectors. According to the author, these interactions could transform the industry on a middle term, more than the required technical changes aimed at the reduction of emissions. After a detailed analysis on these issues, this paper discusses the results of several studies dealing with the relationship between environmental regulation and competitiveness, and with global assessments of carbon leakages. Then, the author discusses the European directive which introduces the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS)

  13. Our climate change actions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-05-01

    One of the main tools utilized by the Canadian government to encourage the private sector and other organizations to monitor, report and implement measures for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is the Climate Change Voluntary Challenge and Registry (VCR), a program supported by several industry leaders in the oil and gas sector, such as the Canadian Energy Pipeline Association (CEPA). Financial resources and human efforts have expanded for the past seven years (since 1995) by the transmission pipeline companies with the aim of continuously reducing the emissions of greenhouse gas which have an impact on climate change. The successes achieved by member companies of CEPA are described in this document, resulting in limitations to the growth of greenhouse gas emissions by players in the sector. The three types of greenhouse gas emissions produced by transmission pipelines, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, and the process by which they are produced, are explained. The high growth in emissions by transmission pipelines is due to the higher amounts of energy required to move increasing volumes of natural gas. Some of the successes achieved by companies in direct emissions in the sector are: advances in inventory accuracy, greenhouse gas audits, measuring fugitive emissions, reducing emissions from fossil fuel combustion, state-of-the-art technology, energy efficiency, computer modelling, improving operational efficiency and replacing equipment. In indirect emissions, the measures implemented include efficiency of electricity use and helping consumers save. Using waste heat to create electricity, and offsets through cogeneration are measures that contribute to the successes in innovation

  14. Sensitivity of wave energy to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Harrison, Gareth; Wallace, Robin

    2005-01-01

    Wave energy will have a key role in meeting renewable energy targets en route to a low carbon economy. However, in common with other renewables, it may be sensitive to changes in climate resulting from rising carbon emissions. Changes in wind patterns are widely anticipated and this will ultimately alter wave regimes. Indeed, evidence indicates that wave heights have been changing over the last 40 years, although there is no proven link to global warming. Changes in the wave climate will impa...

  15. Climate Change Mitigation A Balanced Approach to Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a fresh and innovative perspective on climate change policy. By emphasizing the multiple facets of climate policy, from mitigation to adaptation, from technological innovation and diffusion to governance issues, it contains a comprehensive overview of the economic and policy dimensions of the climate problem. The keyword of the book is balance. The book clarifies that climate change cannot be controlled by sacrificing economic growth and many other urgent global issues. At the same time, action to control climate change cannot be delayed, even though gradually implemented. Therefore, on the one hand climate policy becomes pervasive and affects all dimensions of international policy. On the other hand, climate policy cannot be too ambitious: a balanced approach between mitigation and adaptation, between economic growth and resource management, between short term development efforts and long term innovation investments, should be adopted. I recommend its reading. Carlo Carraro, President, Ca�...

  16. Preparing for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holdgate, M

    1989-01-01

    There is a distinct probability that humankind is changing the climate and at the same time raising the sea level of the world. The most plausible projections we have now suggest a rise in mean world temperature of between 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2030--just 40 years hence. This is a bigger change in a smaller period than we know of in the experience of the earth's ecosystems and human societies. It implies that by 2030 the earth will be warmer than at any time in the past 120,000 years. In the same period, we are likely to see a rise of 15-30 centimeters in sea level, partly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and partly to the expansion of the warmer seas. This may not seem much--but it comes on top of the 12-centimeter rise in the past century and we should recall that over 1/2 the world's population lives in zones on or near coasts. A quarter meter rise in sea level could have drastic consequences for countries like the Maldives or the Netherlands, where much of the land lies below the 2-meter contour. The cause of climate change is known as the 'greenhouse effect'. Greenhouse glass has the property that it is transparent to radiation coming in from the sun, but holds back radiation to space from the warmed surfaces inside the greenhouse. Certain gases affect the atmosphere in the same way. There are 5 'greenhouse gases' and we have been roofing ourselves with them all: carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25% above preindustrial levels and are likely to double within a century, due to tropical forest clearance and especially to the burning of increasing quantities of coal and other fossil fuels; methane concentrations are now twice their preindustrial levels as a result of releases from agriculture; nitrous oxide has increased due to land clearance for agriculture, use of fertilizers, and fossil fuel combustion; ozone levels near the earth's surface have increased due mainly to pollution from motor vehicles; and

  17. The Inuit and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fenge, T.

    2001-12-31

    Marked climate change has been forecast for regions in high latitudes by global climate models presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Observations and reports of significant alterations to the natural environment of Canada's north have been reported by Inuit and other indigenous peoples using their traditional ecological knowledge as a reference. Global climate change appears to be the cause for the changes noted. Many aspects of climate change need to be addressed, such as research, outreach, impacts, adaptations and international negotiations. Based on the strong partnership that had been developed between the Inuit and four federal agencies, three territorial governments and four indigenous people's organizations in support of the Northern Contaminants Program, Inuit are now seeking a partnership with the federal government to address the issues mentioned above concerning climate change. refs., 1 tab.

  18. Global warming and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-10-01

    A panel discussion was held to discuss climate change. Six panelists made presentations that summarized ozone depletion and climate change, discussed global responses, argued against the conventional scientific and policy dogmas concerning climate change, examined the effects of ultraviolet radiation on phytoplankton, examined the effects of carbon taxes on Canadian industry and its emissions, and examined the political and strategic aspects of global warming. A question session followed the presentations. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the six presentations

  19. Navigating SA's climate change legislation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dickey, Suzanne

    2006-01-01

    It is proposed that there should be a legislation to address climate change and Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Bill. South Australian Government Greenhouse Strategy and climate change legislation in light of the far-reaching implications this legislation could have on clients, who face the impacts of climate change in the business and natural environment. It is a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in South Australia by 2050 to 60 per cent of 1990 levels

  20. Climate change, environment and development

    OpenAIRE

    Okereke, Chukwumerije; Massaquoi, Abu-Bakar S.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change, a quintessential environmental problem, is generally recognised as the most important development challenge in the 21st century (IPCC, 2014). In addition to acknowledging its many significant direct consequences, climate change is increasingly used to frame discussions on other important global challenges, such as health, energy and food security. This chapter provides understanding of the intricate and complex relationship between climate change, environment and development.

  1. Global change of the climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moharam-nejad, Naser.

    1995-01-01

    Greenhouse effect is defined. greenhouse gases which are capable to produce greenhouse effect is mentioned. The production of greenhouse effects depends on the following factors; The amount of discharge to the atmosphere, Concentration, Life span, stability, Absorption and Emission. The effect of global change of climate on agriculture and living organisms is discussed. Global actions related to climate change and national procedures are described. The aim of climate change convention is given and the important points of convention is also mentioned

  2. Land use and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Koomen, E.; Moel, de, H.; Steingröver, E.G.; Rooij, van, S.A.M.; Eupen, van, M.

    2012-01-01

    Land use is majorly involved with climate change concerns and this chapter discusses and reviews the interrelationships between the vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation aspects of land use and climate change. We review a number of key studies on climate change issues regarding land productivity, land use and land management (LPLULM), identifying key findings, pointing out research needs, and raising economic/policy questions to ponder. Overall, this chapter goes beyond previous reviews ...

  3. Municipal vulnerability to climate change

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mambo, Julia

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available South Africa, like the rest of Africa, is considered highly vulnerable to climate change and variability as well as to global change. Climate change is and will continue to be an issue of concern in the development of the country. South Africa faces...

  4. Floods in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theresa K. Andersen; Marshall J. Shepherd

    2013-01-01

    Atmospheric warming and associated hydrological changes have implications for regional flood intensity and frequency. Climate models and hydrological models have the ability to integrate various contributing factors and assess potential changes to hydrology at global to local scales through the century. This survey of floods in a changing climate reviews flood...

  5. Cinematic climate change, a promising perspective on climate change communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakellari, Maria

    2015-10-01

    Previous research findings display that after having seen popular climate change films, people became more concerned, more motivated and more aware of climate change, but changes in behaviors were short-term. This article performs a meta-analysis of three popular climate change films, The Day after Tomorrow (2005), An Inconvenient Truth (2006), and The Age of Stupid (2009), drawing on research in social psychology, human agency, and media effect theory in order to formulate a rationale about how mass media communication shapes our everyday life experience. This article highlights the factors with which science blends in the reception of the three climate change films and expands the range of options considered in order to encourage people to engage in climate change mitigation actions. © The Author(s) 2014.

  6. Climate change. Climate in Medieval time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Raymond S; Hughes, Malcolm K; Diaz, Henry F

    2003-10-17

    Many papers have referred to a "Medieval Warm Period." But how well defined is climate in this period, and was it as warm as or warmer than it is today? In their Perspective, Bradley et al. review the evidence and conclude that although the High Medieval (1100 to 1200 A.D.) was warmer than subsequent centuries, it was not warmer than the late 20th century. Moreover, the warmest Medieval temperatures were not synchronous around the globe. Large changes in precipitation patterns are a particular characteristic of "High Medieval" time. The underlying mechanisms for such changes must be elucidated further to inform the ongoing debate on natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change.

  7. Climate Change and Forest Disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    V. H. Dale; L. A. Joyce; S. McNulty; R. P. Neilson; M. P. Ayres; M. D. Flannigan; P. J. Hanson; L. C. Irland; A. E. Lugo; C. J. Peterson; D. Simberloff; F. J. Swanson; B. J. Stocks; B. M. Wotton

    2001-01-01

    CLIMATE CHANGE CAN AFFECT FORESTS BY ALTERING THE FREQUENCY, INTENSITY, DURATION, AND TIMING OF FIRE, DROUGHT, INTRODUCED SPECIES, INSECT AND PATHOGEN OUTBREAKS, HURRICANES, WINDSTORMS, ICE STORMS, OR LANDSLIDES

  8. The economics of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, T.

    1992-01-01

    Perhaps the most startling aspect of the debate on climate change is the speed with which it has climbed the international political agenda. In 1985, climate change was viewed almost entirely as a scientific issue. Only seven years later, most industrialized countries have made some sort of political pledge to abate their emissions of greenhouse gases over a specific timetable. And earlier this year, 154 countries signed a Framework Convention on Climate Change at the UN Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro. What is the present 'state of play' in the economics of climate change. And what priorities are now emerging in 'post-Rio' policy. 11 ref

  9. Climate change mitigation in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Bo

    2012-07-01

    China has been experiencing great economic development and fast urbanisation since its reforms and opening-up policy in 1978. However, these changes are reliant on consumption of primary energy, especially coal, characterised by high pollution and low efficiency. China's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) being the most significant contributor, have also been increasing rapidly in the past three decades. Responding to both domestic challenges and international pressure regarding energy, climate change and environment, the Chinese government has made a point of addressing climate change since the early 2000s. This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of China's CO{sub 2} emissions and policy instruments for mitigating climate change. In the analysis, China's CO{sub 2} emissions in recent decades were reviewed and the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis examined. Using the mostly frequently studied macroeconomic factors and time-series data for the period of 1980-2008, the existence of an EKC relationship between CO{sub 2} per capita and GDP per capita was verified. However, China's CO{sub 2} emissions will continue to grow over coming decades and the turning point in overall CO{sub 2} emissions will appear in 2078 according to a crude projection. More importantly, CO{sub 2} emissions will not spontaneously decrease if China continues to develop its economy without mitigating climate change. On the other hand, CO{sub 2} emissions could start to decrease if substantial efforts are made. China's present mitigation target, i.e. to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 compared with the 2005 level, was then evaluated. Three business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios were developed and compared with the level of emissions according to the mitigation target. The calculations indicated that decreasing the CO{sub 2} intensity of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 is a challenging but hopeful target. To

  10. Climate change research in Bulgaria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iotova, A.; Koleva, E.

    1995-01-01

    Climate is traditionally one of the main fields of research interest and objects for study in Bulgaria. Therefore, many investigations on its genesis and specific features are carried out in the past and present. Recently, climate change research appears to be the most actual topic and it is in the centre of climatic studies. A major part of these studies are realized at the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH) because of its essential role in collection and analysis of the basic climatic data for the country. A brief description of the climate change research at NIMH is presented and the obtained results are summarized

  11. Climate changes - To understand and to react

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    The first part of this report recalls the definition of the greenhouse effect, comments the climate past variations, outlines that climate changes are already here and that greenhouse effect has a human origin, and discusses the expected impacts during the 21. century. The second part presents the basis of international action in the struggle against climate change, outlines the necessity to strengthen this international action, describes the role of Europe in international negotiations on climate, outlines the need of an international agreement on climate, proposes an overview of the French climate policy (national and local actions), and outlines that some political responses do not match with sustainable development (nuclear energy, agro-fuels, carbon capture and storage, shale gas and oil). The third part indicates how one can compute his own impact on climate, and presents some collective and citizen innovative initiatives in the fields of agriculture and food, of energy, of transports and mobility, and of wastes

  12. NDVI indicated long-term interannual changes in vegetation activities and their responses to climatic and anthropogenic factors in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Zhaofei; Wu, Shengjun; Chen, Jilong; Lü, Mingquan

    2017-01-01

    Natural and social environmental changes in the China's Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR) have received worldwide attention. Identifying interannual changes in vegetation activities in the TGRR is an important task for assessing the impact these changes have on the local ecosystem. We used long-term (1982-2011) satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets and climatic and anthropogenic factors to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation activities in the TGRR, as well as their links to changes in temperature (TEM), precipitation (PRE), downward radiation (RAD), and anthropogenic activities. At the whole TGRR regional scale, a statistically significant overall uptrend in NDVI variations was observed in 1982-2011. More specifically, there were two distinct periods with different trends split by a breakpoint in 1991: NDVI first sharply increased prior to 1991, and then showed a relatively weak rate of increase after 1991. At the pixel scale, most parts of the TGRR experienced increasing NDVI before the 1990s but different trend change types after the 1990s: trends were positive in forests in the northeastern parts, but negative in farmland in southwest parts of the TGRR. The TEM warming trend was the main climate-related driver of uptrending NDVI variations pre-1990s, and decreasing PRE was the main climate factor (42%) influencing the mid-western farmland areas' NDVI variations post-1990s. We also found that anthropogenic factors such as population density, man-made ecological restoration, and urbanization have notable impacts on the TGRR's NDVI variations. For example, large overall trend slopes in NDVI were more likely to appear in TGRR regions with large fractions of ecological restoration within the last two decades. The findings of this study may help to build a better understanding of the mechanics of NDVI variations in the periods before and during TGDP construction for ongoing ecosystem monitoring and assessment in the

  13. Drought tolerance and growth in populations of a wide-ranging tree species indicate climate change risks for the boreal north.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montwé, David; Isaac-Renton, Miriam; Hamann, Andreas; Spiecker, Heinrich

    2016-02-01

    Choosing drought-tolerant planting stock in reforestation programs may help adapt forests to climate change. To inform such reforestation strategies, we test lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Doug. ex Loud. var latifolia Englm.) population response to drought and infer potential benefits of a northward transfer of seeds from drier, southern environments. The objective is addressed by combining dendroecological growth analysis with long-term genetic field trials. Over 500 trees originating from 23 populations across western North America were destructively sampled in three experimental sites in southern British Columbia, representing a climate warming scenario. Growth after 32 years from provenances transferred southward or northward over long distances was significantly lower than growth of local populations. All populations were affected by a severe natural drought event in 2002. The provenances from the most southern locations showed the highest drought tolerance but low productivity. Local provenances were productive and drought tolerant. Provenances from the boreal north showed lower productivity and less drought tolerance on southern test sites than all other sources, implying that maladaptation to drought may prevent boreal populations from taking full advantage of more favorable growing conditions under projected climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. NASA Nice Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frink, K.; Crocker, S.; Jones, W., III; Marshall, S. S.; Anuradha, D.; Stewart-Gurley, K.; Howard, E. M.; Hill, E.; Merriweather, E.

    2013-12-01

    Authors: 1 Kaiem Frink, 4 Sherry Crocker, 5 Willie Jones, III, 7 Sophia S.L. Marshall, 6 Anuadha Dujari 3 Ervin Howard 1 Kalota Stewart-Gurley 8 Edwinta Merriweathe Affiliation: 1. Mathematics & Computer Science, Virginia Union University, Richmond, VA, United States. 2. Mathematics & Computer Science, Elizabeth City State Univ, Elizabeth City, NC, United States. 3. Education, Elizabeth City State University, Elizabeth City, NC, United States. 4. College of Education, Fort Valley State University , Fort Valley, GA, United States. 5. Education, Tougaloo College, Jackson, MS, United States. 6. Mathematics, Delaware State University, Dover, DE, United States. 7. Education, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS, United States. 8. Education, Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical University, Huntsville, AL, United States. ABSTRACT: In this research initiative, the 2013-2014 NASA NICE workshop participants will present best educational practices for incorporating climate change pedagogy. The presentation will identify strategies to enhance instruction of pre-service teachers to aligned with K-12 Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) standards. The presentation of best practices should serve as a direct indicator to address pedagogical needs to include climate education within a K-12 curriculum Some of the strategies will include inquiry, direct instructions, and cooperative learning . At this particular workshop, we have learned about global climate change in regards to how this is going to impact our life. Participants have been charged to increase the scientific understanding of pre-service teachers education programs nationally to incorporate climate education lessons. These recommended practices will provide feasible instructional strategies that can be easily implemented and used to clarify possible misconceptions and ambiguities in scientific knowledge. Additionally, the presentation will promote an awareness to the many facets in which climate

  15. Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate

  16. Changes in drought risk with climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mullan, B.; Porteous, A.; Wratt, D.; Hollis, M.

    2005-05-01

    As human activity adds more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, most climate change scenarios predict rising temperatures and decreased rainfall in the east of New Zealand. This means eastern parts of the country are expected to experience more droughts as the 21st century goes on. Our report seeks for the first time to define the possible range of changes in future drought risk. This report was commissioned because of the importance of drought for agriculture and water resources. The report aims to give central and local government and the agriculture sector an indication of how big future drought changes could be in the various regions. This information can be relevant in managing long-term water resources and land use, including planning for irrigation schemes.

  17. Climate Change: The Evidence and Our Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Lonnie G.

    2010-01-01

    Glaciers serve as early indicators of climate change. Over the last 35 years, our research team has recovered ice-core records of climatic and environmental variations from the polar regions and from low-latitude high-elevation ice fields from 16 countries. The ongoing widespread melting of high-elevation glaciers and ice caps, particularly in low…

  18. Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

    2014-12-01

    Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

  19. An overview of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masson-Delmotte, V.; Paillard, D.

    2004-01-01

    We describe briefly here the main mechanisms and time scales involved in natural and anthropogenic climate variability, based on quantitative paleo-climatic reconstructions from natural archives and climate model simulations: the large glacial-interglacial cycles of the last million years (the Quaternary), lasting typically a hundred thousand years, triggered by changes in the solar radiation received by the Earth due to its position around the Sun; the century-long climatic changes occurring during last glacial period and triggered by recurrent iceberg discharges of the large northern hemisphere ice caps, massive freshwater flux to the north Atlantic, and changes in the ocean heat transport. We show the strong coupling between past climatic changes and global biogeochemical cycles, namely here atmospheric greenhouse gases. We also discuss the decadal climatic fluctuations during the last thousand years, showing an unprecedented warming attributed to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. We show the range of atmospheric greenhouse concentrations forecasted for the end of the 21. century and the climate model predictions for global temperature changes during the 21. century. We also discuss the possible climatic changes at longer time scales involving the possibility of north Atlantic heat transport collapse (possibility of abrupt climate change), and the duration of the current interglacial period. (author)

  20. Climate and desertification: indicators for an assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sciortino, M.; Caiaffa, E.; Fattoruso, G.; Donolo, R.; Salvetti, G.

    2009-01-01

    This work aims to define a methodology that, on the basis of commonly available surface climate records, assesses indicators of the increase or decrease of the extension of territories vulnerable to desertification and land degradation. The definition and quantification of environmental policy relevant indicators aims to improve the understanding and the decision making processes in dry lands. the results of this study show that since 1931 changes of climate involved 90% of the territory of the Sicilian region, with stronger intensity in the internal areas of Enna, Caltanissetta and Palermo provinces. (Author) 9 refs.

  1. Climate change, conflict and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowles, Devin C; Butler, Colin D; Morisetti, Neil

    2015-10-01

    Future climate change is predicted to diminish essential natural resource availability in many regions and perhaps globally. The resulting scarcity of water, food and livelihoods could lead to increasingly desperate populations that challenge governments, enhancing the risk of intra- and interstate conflict. Defence establishments and some political scientists view climate change as a potential threat to peace. While the medical literature increasingly recognises climate change as a fundamental health risk, the dimension of climate change-associated conflict has so far received little attention, despite its profound health implications. Many analysts link climate change with a heightened risk of conflict via causal pathways which involve diminishing or changing resource availability. Plausible consequences include: increased frequency of civil conflict in developing countries; terrorism, asymmetric warfare, state failure; and major regional conflicts. The medical understanding of these threats is inadequate, given the scale of health implications. The medical and public health communities have often been reluctant to interpret conflict as a health issue. However, at times, medical workers have proven powerful and effective peace advocates, most notably with regard to nuclear disarmament. The public is more motivated to mitigate climate change when it is framed as a health issue. Improved medical understanding of the association between climate change and conflict could strengthen mitigation efforts and increase cooperation to cope with the climate change that is now inevitable. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

  2. Climate variability and change

    CERN Document Server

    Grassl, H

    1998-01-01

    Many factors influence climate. The present knowledge concerning the climate relevance of earth orbital parameters, solar luminosity, volcanoes, internal interactions, and human activities will be reported as well as the vulnerability of emission scenarios for given stabilization goals for greenhouse gas concentrations and the main points of the Kyoto Protocol

  3. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON EU AGRICULTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shailesh Shrestha

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The current paper investigates the medium term economic impact of climate changes on the EU agriculture. The yield change data under climate change scenarios are taken from the BIOMA (Biophysical Models Application simulation environment. We employ CAPRI modelling framework to identify the EU aggregate economic effects as well as regional impacts. We take into account supply and market price adjustments of the EU agricultural sector as well as technical adaptation of crops to climate change. Overall results indicate an increase in yields and production level in the EU agricultural sector due to the climate change. In general, there are relatively small effects at the EU aggregate. For example, the value of land use and welfare change by approximately between -2% and 0.2%. However, there is a stronger impact at regional level with some stronger effects prevailing particularly in the Central and Northern EU and smaller impacts are observed in Southern Europe. Regional impacts of climate change vary by a factor higher up to 10 relative to the aggregate EU impacts. The price adjustments reduce the response of agricultural sector to climate change in particular with respect to production and income changes. The technical adaption of crops to climate change may result in a change production and land use by a factor between 1.4 and 6 relative to no-adaptation situation.

  4. Ground Water and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; hide

    2013-01-01

    As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

  5. Climate change science compendium 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McMullen, C.P.; Jabbour, J.

    2009-09-15

    In a matter of a few weeks' time, governments will gather in Copenhagen, Denmark, for a crucial UN climate convention meeting. Many governments and stakeholders have requested an annual snapshot of how the science has been evolving since the publication of the IPCC's landmark fourth assessment in advance of the panel's next one in 2014. This Climate Change Science Compendium, based on the wealth of peerreviewed research published by researchers and institutions since 2006, has been compiled by UNEP in response to that request. The findings indicate that ever more rapid environmental change is underway with the pace and the scale of climate change accelerating, along with the confidence among researchers in their forecasts. The Arctic, with implications for the globe, is emerging as an area of major concern. There is growing evidence that the ice there is melting far faster than had been previously supposed. Mountains glaciers also appear to be retreating faster. Scientists now suggest that the Arctic could be virtually ice free in September of 2037 and that a nearly ice-free September by 2028 is well within the realms of possibility. Recent findings also show that significant warming extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsula to cover most of West Antarctica, an area of warming much larger than previously reported. The impact on the Earth's multi-trillion dollar ecosystems is also a key area of concern. Under a high emission scenario-the one that most closely matches current trends-12-39 per cent of the planet's terrestrial surface could experience novel climate conditions and 10-48 per cent could suffer disappearing climates by 2100. Rising levels of aridity are also concentrating scientific minds. New research indicates that by the end of the 21st century the Mediterranean region will also experience much more severe increases in aridity than previously estimated rendering the entire region, but particularly the southern Mediterranean

  6. Climate change in China and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Luo Y.; Qin D.; Huang J.

    2010-01-01

    Since the first assessment report (FAR) of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1990, the international scientific community has made substantial progresses in climate change sciences. Changes in components of climate system, including the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, indicate that global warming is unequivocal. Instrumental records demonstrate that the global mean temperature has a significant increasing trend during the 20th century and in the latest 50 years the warmi...

  7. Climate change refugia as a tool for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change so as to increase persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources, are considered as potential adaptation options in the face of anthropogenic climate change. In a collaboration ...

  8. Climate change challenges for SEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    This paper takes a theoretical perspective on the challenges that climate changes pose for SEA. The theoretical framework used is the sociologist Ulrich Beck’s theory of risk society and the aspects that characterise this society. Climate change is viewed as a risk, and the theory is used to derive...

  9. Energy, climate change and sequestration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simioni, M.; Stevens, G.W.

    2007-01-01

    There is now very little debate that the earth's climate is changing, and the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence. Many causes have been postulated and speculation about the eventual outcomes abounds. Whatever eventuates, society will have to adapt to a new and changing climate

  10. Climate change and forest disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virginia H. Dale; Linda A. Joyce; Steve McNulty; Ronald P. Neilson; Matthew P. Ayres; Michael D. Flannigan; Paul J. Hanson; Lloyd C. Irland; Ariel E. Lugo; Chris J. Peterson; Daniel Simberloff; Frederick J. Swanson; Brian J. Stocks; Michael Wotton

    2001-01-01

    This article examines how eight disturbances influence forest structure, composition, and function, and how climate change may influence the severity, frequency, and magnitude of disturbances to forests. We focus on examples from the United States, although these influences occur worldwide. We also consider options for coping with disturbance under changing climate....

  11. Climate change, responsibility, and justice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamieson, Dale

    2010-09-01

    In this paper I make the following claims. In order to see anthropogenic climate change as clearly involving moral wrongs and global injustices, we will have to revise some central concepts in these domains. Moreover, climate change threatens another value ("respect for nature") that cannot easily be taken up by concerns of global justice or moral responsibility.

  12. National, ready-to-use climate indicators calculation and dissemination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desiato, F.; Fioravanti, G.; Fraschetti, P.; Perconti, W.; Toreti, A.

    2010-09-01

    In Italy, meteorological data necessary and useful for climate studies are collected, processed and archived by a wide range of national and regional institutions. As a result, the density of the stations, the length and frequency of the observations, the quality control procedures and the database structure vary from one dataset to the other. In order to maximize the use of those data for climate knowledge and climate change assessments, a computerized system for the collection, quality control, calculation, regular update and rapid dissemination of climate indicators (denominated SCIA) was developed. Along with the pieces of information provided by complete metadata, climate indicators consist of statistics (mean, extremes, date of occurrence, standard deviation) over ten-days, monthly and yearly time periods of meteorological variables, including temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind, water balance, evapotranspitaton, degree-days, cloud cover, sea level pressure, solar radiation. In addition, normal values over thirty-year reference climatological periods and yearly anomalies are calculated and made available. All climate indicators, as well as their time series at a single location or spatial distribution at a selected time, are available through a dedicated web site (www.scia.sinanet.apat.it). In addition, secondary products like high resolution temperature maps obtained by kriging spatial interpolation, are made available. Over the last three years, about 40000 visitors accessed to the SCIA web site, with an average of 45 visitors per day. Most frequent visitors belong to categories like universities and research institutes; private companies and general public are present as well. Apart from research purposes, climate indicators disseminated through SCIA may be used in several socio-economic sectors like energy consumption, water management, agriculture, tourism and health. With regards to our activity, we base on these indicators for the estimation of

  13. Climate variability and change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manton, M.

    2006-01-01

    When Australia's climate should not be definite barrier to the population reaching 30 million by 2050, it is recognised that our climate has limited the development of the nation over the past 200 years. Indeed in 1911, based on a comparison of the climate and development between the US and Australia. Griffith Taylor predicted that Australia's population would be 19 million at the end of the 20th century, which is a pretty good 90-year forecast. The climate constraint is not only due to much of the country being semi-arid with an annual rainfall below 400 millimetres, but also due to the large year-to-year variability of rainfall across the country

  14. Climate change experiments in Hamburg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubasch, U [DKRZ, Hamburg (Germany)

    1996-12-31

    Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the simulations with present day conditions (1980-1990) is too late, because then a considerable part of the warming since the beginning of the industrialization (ca. 1750) has been neglected. Furthermore it has only recently become clear that the sulphat-aerosols play an important role in the present day climate and in the future climate. The effect of the sulphat aerosols has first been simulated in a number of equilibrium simulations with mixed layer models, but nowadays with globally coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models

  15. Climate change experiments in Hamburg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubasch, U. [DKRZ, Hamburg (Germany)

    1995-12-31

    Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the simulations with present day conditions (1980-1990) is too late, because then a considerable part of the warming since the beginning of the industrialization (ca. 1750) has been neglected. Furthermore it has only recently become clear that the sulphat-aerosols play an important role in the present day climate and in the future climate. The effect of the sulphat aerosols has first been simulated in a number of equilibrium simulations with mixed layer models, but nowadays with globally coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models

  16. Adapting agriculture to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howden, S Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

    2007-12-11

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.

  17. Methods for extracting climate indicator data from social media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuka, M. Z.; Fuka, D. R.

    2011-12-01

    This paper shows how we've used the R software suite to extract climate indicator data from Twitter. In the course of this research we've collected extensive data sets of unsolicited observations ("tweets") for hundreds of climate-related phenological, biological, epidemiological and meteorological effects. R has proved itself in our work as a useful tool for manipulating those large data sets. Our experience from this effort has yielded a variety of insights on using R to extract geophysics-specific information from publicly accessible social media sources. We illustrate our methodology by mapping tweeted US armadillo sightings to explore the impact of climate variability on the extent of the animal's range. This example usefully demonstrates R's technical capabilities in collecting, time-stamping, geolocating, analyzing, visualizing and otherwise processing climate-related data derived from unsolicited social media postings. We also "mash-up" the data sets with those acquired by more traditional means, for example, temperature and precipitation data across the armadillo's US range. Our data-handling practice is extendable to social sharing services other than Twitter, providing the environmental modeling community an opportunity to access largely untapped resources of non-traditional climate indicator data to better understand the effects of climate change at local, regional and global scales.

  18. Climate change with Korea as the center

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Yeon Ok

    1998-04-01

    This book deals with climate change with Korea as the center, which is divided into ten chapters. It explain climate change by human life. The contents of this book are climate change, climate before human period, great ice age of prehistoric period, prehistoric times of last glacial era, climate change in historical era, change during observation time for 100 years, warming period, global environment period, the cause of climate change and climate and human. It has reference and an index.

  19. General Chemistry Students' Understanding of Climate Change and the Chemistry Related to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Versprille, Ashley N.; Towns, Marcy H.

    2015-01-01

    While much is known about secondary students' perspectives of climate change, rather less is known about undergraduate students' perspectives. The purpose of this study is to investigate general chemistry students' understanding of the chemistry underlying climate change. Findings that emerged from the analysis of the 24 interviews indicate that…

  20. Climate change and One Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zinsstag, Jakob; Crump, Lisa; Schelling, Esther; Hattendorf, Jan; Maidane, Yahya Osman; Ali, Kadra Osman; Muhummed, Abdifatah; Umer, Abdurezak Adem; Aliyi, Ferzua; Nooh, Faisal; Abdikadir, Mohammed Ibrahim; Ali, Seid Mohammed; Hartinger, Stella; Mäusezahl, Daniel; de White, Monica Berger Gonzalez; Cordon-Rosales, Celia; Castillo, Danilo Alvarez; McCracken, John; Abakar, Fayiz; Cercamondi, Colin; Emmenegger, Sandro; Maier, Edith; Karanja, Simon; Bolon, Isabelle; de Castañeda, Rafael Ruiz; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Tschopp, Rea; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Cissé, Guéladio

    2018-06-01

    The journal The Lancet recently published a countdown on health and climate change. Attention was focused solely on humans. However, animals, including wildlife, livestock and pets, may also be impacted by climate change. Complementary to the high relevance of awareness rising for protecting humans against climate change, here we present a One Health approach, which aims at the simultaneous protection of humans, animals and the environment from climate change impacts (climate change adaptation). We postulate that integrated approaches save human and animal lives and reduce costs when compared to public and animal health sectors working separately. A One Health approach to climate change adaptation may significantly contribute to food security with emphasis on animal source foods, extensive livestock systems, particularly ruminant livestock, environmental sanitation, and steps towards regional and global integrated syndromic surveillance and response systems. The cost of outbreaks of emerging vector-borne zoonotic pathogens may be much lower if they are detected early in the vector or in livestock rather than later in humans. Therefore, integrated community-based surveillance of zoonoses is a promising avenue to reduce health effects of climate change.

  1. Incorporating Fundamentals of Climate Monitoring into Climate Indicators at the National Climatic Data Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arndt, D. S.

    2014-12-01

    In recent years, much attention has been dedicated to the development, testing and implementation of climate indicators. Several Federal agencies and academic groups have commissioned suites of indicators drawing upon and aggregating information available across the spectrum of climate data stewards and providers. As a long-time participant in the applied climatology discipline, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) has generated climate indicators for several decades. Traditionally, these indicators were developed for sectors with long-standing relationships with, and needs of, the applied climatology field. These have recently been adopted and adapted to meet the needs of sectors who have newfound sensitivities to climate and needs for climate data. Information and indices from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center have been prominent components of these indicator suites, and in some cases have been drafted in toto by these aggregators, often with improvements to the communicability and aesthetics of the indicators themselves. Across this history of supporting needs for indicators, NCDC climatologists developed a handful of practical approaches and philosophies that inform a successful climate monitoring product. This manuscript and presentation will demonstrate the utility this set of practical applications that translate raw data into useful information.

  2. Late Pleistocene Vegetation, Climate and Relative Sea Level Changes in the Southeastern Brazilian Coast, Based on C and N Isotopes and Bio Indicator Analysis of Mangrove Organic Matter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pessenda, L. C.R.; Vidotto, E.; Buso, Jr., A. A.; Assarini, Jr., J. P.; Bendassollia, J. A. [Center for Nuclear Energy in Agriculture (CENA), University of Sao Paulo (USP), Piracicaba, Sao Paulo (Brazil); De Oliveira, P. E. [University of Guarulhos (UNG), Guarulhos, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Macias, F. [' ' Luiz de Queiroz' ' College of Agriculture/USP, Piracicaba, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Ricardi-Branco, F. [University of Campinas - Geosciences Institute, Campinas, Sao Paulo (Brazil)

    2013-07-15

    On the southeastern Brazilian coast, mangrove organic matter records have been studied by C and N isotopes, pollen and diatom analysis to reconstruct 40 ka of vegetation and climatic history. The {delta}{sup 13}C and {delta}{sup 15}N presented more depleted values from 40 to 19 ka BP. The high C/N ratios and depleted isotopic values indicate the predominance of C3 land plants in the location presently occupied by the mangrove vegetation, and a lower sea level than today. The presence of pollen of Ilex, Weinmannia, Symplocos, Drimys and Podocarpus suggest a colder and more humid climate than present. From 19 to 2.2 ka BP a sedimentary hiatus is associated with a sea level rise. The presence of mangrove in its present position since at least 2.200 a BP and the return of the marine coastline are associated with the lowest C/N ratio, more enriched {delta}{sup 13}C and {delta}{sup 15}N values and the presence of marine diatoms. (author)

  3. Challenges of climate change. Which climate governance?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vieillefosse, A.; Cros, Ch.

    2007-01-01

    This report deals with the main challenges of climate change, and attempts to answer some questions: what is the temperature increase foreseen by scientific experts? Who will be affected by the consequences of climate change? Are there technologies to reduce emissions? If yes, why are they not diffused? Is it justified to ask developing countries to do something? Are concurrence distortions a real problem? Which are the main sectors where emissions are to be reduced? Are tools developed at the international level efficient? What is the present assessment for the clean development mechanism? What can be thought of technological partnerships developed with the United States? Then, the report comments the present status of international discussions, proposes a brief assessment of the Kyoto protocol ten years after its implementation, and proposes some improvement pathways

  4. Risk communication on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wardekker, J.A.

    2004-10-01

    For the title study use has been made of available scientific literature, results of new surveys and interviews. In the first part of the study attention is paid to the exchange of information between parties involved in climate change and differences in supply and demand of information. In the second part citizens' views on climate change, problems with communication on climate change, and the resulting consequences and options for communication are dealt with. In this second part also barriers to action that are related or influenced by communication are taken into consideration

  5. Arctic adaptation and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agnew, T.A.; Headley, A.

    1994-01-01

    The amplification of climatic warming in the Arctic and the sensitivity of physical, biological, and human systems to changes in climate make the Arctic particularly vulnerable to climate changes. Large areas of the Arctic permafrost and sea ice are expected to disappear under climate warming and these changes will have considerable impacts on the natural and built environment of the north. A review is presented of some recent studies on what these impacts could be for the permafrost and sea ice environment and to identify linkages with socioeconomic activities. Terrestrial adaptation to climate change will include increases in ground temperature; melting of permafrost with consequences such as frost heave, mudslides, and substantial settlement; rotting of peat contained in permafrost areas, with subsequent emission of CO 2 ; increased risk of forest fire; and flooding of low-lying areas. With regard to the manmade environment, structures that will be affected include buildings, pipelines, highways, airports, mines, and railways. In marine areas, climate change will increase the ice-free period for marine transport operations and thus provide some benefit to the offshore petroleum industry. This benefit will be offset by increased wave height and period, and increased coastal erosion. The offshore industry needs to be particularly concerned with these impacts since the expected design life of industry facilities (30-60 y) is of the same order as the time frame for possible climatic changes. 18 refs., 5 figs

  6. Smallholder Agriculture and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cohn, Avery S.; Newton, Peter; Dias Bernardes Gil, Juliana; Kuhl, Laura; Samberg, Leah; Ricciardi, Vincent; Manly, Jessica R.; Northrop, Sarah

    2017-01-01

    Hundreds of millions of the world's poorest people directly depend on smallholder farming systems. These people now face a changing climate and associated societal responses. We use mapping and a literature review to juxtapose the climate fate of smallholder systems with that of other agricultural

  7. Responsible investors acting on climate change. Investors acting on climate change. Climate: Investors take action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simon, Marie; Blanc, Dominique; Husson-Traore, Anne-Catherine; Amiell, Alison; Barochez, Aurelie de; Conti, Sophie; Kamelgarn, Yona; Bonnet, Olivier; Braman, Stuart; Chenet, Hugues; Fisher, Remco; Hellier, Mickael; Horster, Maximilian; Kindelbacher, Sophie; Leaton, James; Lieblich, Sebastien; Neuneyer, Dustin; Lenoel, Benjamin; Smart, Lauren; Torklep Meisingset, Christine

    2015-02-01

    Some investors are willing to lower the carbon emission financed by their investment, recognizing that climate change has financial impacts. At first they measure the carbon footprint of their portfolio, than initiate shareholder engagement actions at oil and gas companies, publish list of exclusion composed of the most carbon-intensive companies and ask for ex fossil fuels indices. In June 2015, Novethic launches the first actualisation of its study released on February 2015 on the mobilisation of investors on climate change over the whole 2015 year. The trend is gaining momentum since more than 200 additional investors publicly disclosed commitments to integrate climate risk into their investment and management practices. In September 2015, for its second update of the report on how investors are taking action on climate change, more than 800 entities were screened. As a key result, investor's actions gain momentum: approaches are growing in number and becoming more expert, divestments are widespread in Europe, and green investments promises are more ambitious. The last edition of November 2015 highlights and scans an exclusive panel of 960 investors worth Euro 30 trillion of assets who have made steps forward to tackle climate change. During the last 8 months, their number has almost increased twofold. This document brings together the first edition of Novethic's study and its three updates

  8. Climate Change and Health

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    David Gikungu

    ... and river blindness; 4 of the big 7 are zoonoses (Benniston, 2002). ... global burden of disease and premature deaths. ... illnesses a year and more than 150,000 extra deaths. • By 2030, however, the number of climate-related diseases is likely .... What additional public health interventions are likely to reduce the projected.

  9. Coping with climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zheng, Yuan; Byg, Anja

    2014-01-01

    found across villages regarding the degree of perceived sensitivity and responses despite similar exposure to climate extremes. These differences are partly related to the nature of events and varied socio-economic characteristics of households, which influence their vulnerability and ability to cope...

  10. Invertebrates, ecosystem services and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prather, Chelse M; Pelini, Shannon L; Laws, Angela; Rivest, Emily; Woltz, Megan; Bloch, Christopher P; Del Toro, Israel; Ho, Chuan-Kai; Kominoski, John; Newbold, T A Scott; Parsons, Sheena; Joern, A

    2013-05-01

    The sustainability of ecosystem services depends on a firm understanding of both how organisms provide these services to humans and how these organisms will be altered with a changing climate. Unquestionably a dominant feature of most ecosystems, invertebrates affect many ecosystem services and are also highly responsive to climate change. However, there is still a basic lack of understanding of the direct and indirect paths by which invertebrates influence ecosystem services, as well as how climate change will affect those ecosystem services by altering invertebrate populations. This indicates a lack of communication and collaboration among scientists researching ecosystem services and climate change effects on invertebrates, and land managers and researchers from other disciplines, which becomes obvious when systematically reviewing the literature relevant to invertebrates, ecosystem services, and climate change. To address this issue, we review how invertebrates respond to climate change. We then review how invertebrates both positively and negatively influence ecosystem services. Lastly, we provide some critical future directions for research needs, and suggest ways in which managers, scientists and other researchers may collaborate to tackle the complex issue of sustaining invertebrate-mediated services under a changing climate. © 2012 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2012 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  11. Climate Change and Conceptual Change

    OpenAIRE

    Clark, David Joseph

    2013-01-01

    Global Warming (“GW”) is easily one of the most pressing concerns of our time,and its solution will come about only through a change in human behavior.Compared to the residents of most other nations worldwide, Americans reportlower acceptance of the realities of GW. In order to address this concern in afree society, U.S. residents must be convinced or coerced to take the necessaryactions. In spite of the democratic appeal of education, however, many climatecommunicators appear t...

  12. Natural and anthropogenic climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ko, M.K.W.; Clough, S.A.; Molnar, G.I.; Iacono, M.; Wang, W.C.; State Univ. of New York, Albany, NY

    1992-03-01

    This report consists of two parts: (1) progress for the period 9/1/91--3/31/92 and (2) the plan for the remaining period 4/1/92--8/31/92. The project includes two tasks: atmospheric radiation and improvement of climate models to evaluate the climatic effects of radiation changes. The atmospheric radiation task includes four subtasks: (1) Intercomparison of Radiation Codes in Climate Models (ICRCCM), (2) analysis of the water vapor continuum using line-by-line calculations to develop a parameterization for use in climate models, (3) parameterization of longwave radiation and (4) climate/radiation interactions of desert aerosols. Our effort in this period is focused on the first three subtasks. The improvement of climate models to evaluate the subtasks: (1) general circulation model study and (2) 2- D model development and application

  13. Climate change and water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Younos, Tamim; Grady, Caitlin A.

    2013-01-01

    This volume presents nine chapters prepared by international authors and highlighting various aspects of climate change and water resources. Climate change models and scenarios, particularly those related to precipitation projection, are discussed and uncertainties and data deficiencies that affect the reliability of predictions are identified. The potential impacts of climate change on water resources (including quality) and on crop production are analyzed and adaptation strategies for crop production are offered. Furthermore, case studies of climate change mitigation strategies, such as the reduction of water use and conservation measures in urban environments, are included. This book will serve as a valuable reference work for researchers and students in water and environmental sciences, as well as for governmental agencies and policy makers.

  14. Climate and the changing Sun

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eddy, J.A.

    1977-01-01

    Long-term changes in the level of solar activity are found in historical records and in fossil radiocarbon in tree-rings. Typical of these changes are the Maunder Minimum (A.D. 1645-1715), the Spoerer Minimum (A.D. 1400-1510), and a Medieval Maximum (c. A.D. 1120-1280). Eighteen such features are identified in the tree-ring radiocarbon record of the past 7500 years and compared with a record of world climate. In every case when long-term solar activity falls, mid-latitude glaciers advance and climate colls; at times of high solar activity glaciers recede and climate warms. It is proposed that changes in the level of solar activity and in climate may have a common cause: slow changes in the solar constant, of about 1% amplitude. (Auth.)

  15. VTrans climate change action plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-06-01

    VTrans is working closely with other state agencies, including the Agency of Natural Resources (ANR) to review and implement the transportation-related recommendations from the 2007 Governors Commission on Climate Change (GCCC) final report. The r...

  16. Climate change and water resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Younos, Tamim [The Cabell Brand Center for Global Poverty and Resource Sustainability Studies, Salem, VA (United States); Grady, Caitlin A. (ed.) [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Ecological Sciences and Engineering Program

    2013-07-01

    This volume presents nine chapters prepared by international authors and highlighting various aspects of climate change and water resources. Climate change models and scenarios, particularly those related to precipitation projection, are discussed and uncertainties and data deficiencies that affect the reliability of predictions are identified. The potential impacts of climate change on water resources (including quality) and on crop production are analyzed and adaptation strategies for crop production are offered. Furthermore, case studies of climate change mitigation strategies, such as the reduction of water use and conservation measures in urban environments, are included. This book will serve as a valuable reference work for researchers and students in water and environmental sciences, as well as for governmental agencies and policy makers.

  17. Cities lead on climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pancost, Richard D.

    2016-04-01

    The need to mitigate climate change opens up a key role for cities. Bristol's year as a Green Capital led to great strides forward, but it also revealed that a creative and determined partnership across cultural divides will be necessary.

  18. Climate Change Negotiations Unscrambling Acronyms

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    1992: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Rio. Common but differentiated responsibility (Annex I vs. non-Annex 1); Industrialized countries to bear full incremental costs of adjustment by developing countries ...

  19. The Costs of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jason

    2018-03-01

    This research paper talks about the economic costs of climate change, as well as the costs involved in responding to climate change with alternative fuels. This paper seeks to show that climate change, although seemingly costly in the short run, will both save future generations trillions of dollars and serve as a good economic opportunity. Scientists have long argued that the fate of humanity depends on a shift towards renewable energy. However, this paper will make clear that there is also an economic struggle. By embracing alternative fuels, we will not only lessen the danger and the frequency of these natural disasters but also strengthen the world’s financial state. Although a common argument against responding to climate change is that it is too expensive to make the switch, this research shows that in the future, it will save millions of lives and trillions of dollars. The only question left for policymakers is whether they will grasp this energy source shift.

  20. Climate Change Science Program Collection

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Collection consists of publications and other resources produced between 2007 and 2009 by the CCSP with the intention of...

  1. Sociology in a Changing Climate

    OpenAIRE

    Elizabeth Shove

    2010-01-01

    This note responds to John Urry's contribution and draws on my own presentation at the BSA Presidential Event on 'How to put 'Society' into Climate Change', held on 8th February 2010 at the British Library.

  2. Climate change and group dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postmes, Tom

    2015-01-01

    The characteristics and views of people sceptical about climate change have been analysed extensively. A study now confirms that sceptics in the US have some characteristics of a social movement, but shows that the same group dynamics propel believers

  3. Companies and adaptation to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bourrier, Herve; Duchene, Patrice-Henry; Metcalf, Gerry; Deandreis, Celine; Hardelin, Julien; Vautard, Robert; Bailly, Boris; Gemenne, Francois; Peyrat, Olivier; Greppo, Fabien; Reysset, Bertrand; Beriot, Nicolas; Leonard, Damien; Colas, Julien; Tutenuit, Claire

    2014-04-01

    Whereas climate change will have significant consequences on various economic sectors (infrastructures, energy and water supply, agriculture, cities and buildings, and so on), population behaviours and uses will have to be deeply changed, and this is more particularly the case for enterprises and companies. This guide aims at presenting solutions to face the challenge of climate change for enterprises. In its first part, it outlines how our climate is already changing, gives an overview of main future climate trends in the World, indicates what will be the future climate in France, discusses the noticeable and brutal consequences for activities, resources and territories, outlines that adaptation to tomorrow's climate begins now, and discusses to which climate we'll have to adapt at the local level. In the second part, this publication explains why enterprises must adapt themselves to climate change: enterprises are in a changing environment, and must take a legal and standard framework into account, but this adaptation will have a cost. Adaptation also means uncertainty management, and enterprises are facing obstacles and brakes to adaptation. The last part describes how to implement a strategy of adaptation in an enterprise: resources for adaptation, integration of enterprise management, understanding needs to convince within the enterprise itself, assessment of vulnerability to climate change, how to define priorities for action, which options to choose to adapt the enterprise, how to implement the strategy and how to follow it up and assess it. Some sector-related sheets are provided in appendix. They indicate identified risks, potential impacts of national policies for enterprises, measures which can be freely implemented by enterprises, and identified opportunities for various sectors (health, agriculture, forest, coastal areas, fishery and aquaculture, energy and industry, transport infrastructure, town planning and built environment, tourism

  4. Social protection and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnson, Craig; Bansha Dulal, Hari; Prowse, Martin Philip

    2013-01-01

    This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject.......This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject....

  5. Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, G.; Shah, M.; Van Velthuizen, H.

    2002-08-01

    After the introduction Chapter 2 presents details of the ecological-economic analysis based on the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zones (AEZ) approach for evaluation of biophysical limitations and agricultural production potentials, and IIASA's Basic Linked System (BLS) for analyzing the world's food economy and trade system. The BLS is a global general equilibrium model system for analyzing agricultural policies and food system prospects in an international setting. BLS views national agricultural systems as embedded in national economies, which interact with each other through trade at the international level. The combination of AEZ and BLS provides an integrated ecological-economic framework for the assessment of the impact of climate change. We consider climate scenarios based on experiments with four General Circulation Models (GCM), and we assess the four basic socioeconomic development pathways and emission scenarios as formulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Third Assessment Report. Chapter 3 presents the main AEZ results of the impact of climate change on agriculture. Results comprise environmental constraints to crop agriculture; climate variability and the variability of rain-fed cereal production; changes in potential agricultural land; changes in crop-production patterns; and the impact of climate change on cereal-production potential. Chapter 4 discusses the AEZ-BLS integrated ecological-economic analysis of climate change on the world food system. This includes quantification of scale and location of hunger, international agricultural trade, prices, production, land use, etc. It assesses trends in food production, trade, and consumption, and the impact on poverty and hunger of alternative development pathways and varying levels of climate change. Chapter 5 presents the main conclusions and policy implications of this study

  6. Diarrheal Diseases and Climate Change in Cambodia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIver, Lachlan J; Imai, Chisato; Buettner, Petra G; Gager, Paul; Chan, Vibol S; Hashizume, Masahiro; Iddings, Steven N; Kol, Hero; Raingsey, Piseth P; Lyne, K

    2016-10-01

    The DRIP-SWICCH (Developing Research and Innovative Policies Specific to the Water-related Impacts of Climate Change on Health) project aimed to increase the resilience of Cambodian communities to the health risks posed by climate change-related impacts on water. This article follows a review of climate change and water-related diseases in Cambodia and presents the results of a time series analysis of monthly weather and diarrheal disease data for 11 provinces. In addition, correlations of diarrheal disease incidence with selected demographic, socioeconomic, and water and sanitation indicators are described, with results suggesting education and literacy may be most protective against disease. The potential impact of climate change on the burden of diarrheal disease in Cambodia is considered, along with the implications of these findings for health systems adaptation.

  7. SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS FOR EDUCATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ILONA PAJTÓK-TARI

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper surveys the key statements of the IPCC (2007 Reportbased mainly on the satellite-borne observations to support teaching climatechange and geography by using the potential of this technology. In theIntroduction we briefly specify the potential and the constraints of remote sensing.Next the key climate variables for indicating the changes are surveyed. Snow andsea-ice changes are displayed as examples for these applications. Testing theclimate models is a two-sided task involving satellites, as well. Validation of theability of reconstructing the present climate is the one side of the coin, whereassensitivity of the climate system is another key task, leading to consequences onthe reality of the projected changes. Finally some concluding remarks arecompiled, including a few ideas on the ways how these approaches can be appliedfor education of climate change.

  8. Fair adaptation to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paavola, Jouni; Adger, W. Neil

    2006-01-01

    This article identifies social justice dilemmas associated with the necessity to adapt to climate change, examines how they are currently addressed by the climate change regime, and proposes solutions to overcome prevailing gaps and ambiguities. We argue that the key justice dilemmas of adaptation include responsibility for climate change impacts, the level and burden sharing of assistance to vulnerable countries for adaptation, distribution of assistance between recipient countries and adaptation measures, and fair participation in planning and making decisions on adaptation. We demonstrate how the climate change regime largely omits responsibility but makes a general commitment to assistance. However, the regime has so far failed to operationalise assistance and has made only minor progress towards eliminating obstacles for fair participation. We propose the adoption of four principles for fair adaptation in the climate change regime. These include avoiding dangerous climate change, forward-looking responsibility, putting the most vulnerable first and equal participation of all. We argue that a safe maximum standard of 400-500 ppm of CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere and a carbon tax of $20-50 per carbon equivalent ton could provide the initial instruments for operationalising the principles. (author)

  9. Europeans' attitudes towards climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-07-01

    This report presents the results of a survey on Europeans' attitudes towards climate change which was carried out in January and February 2009. The survey focuses on: Citizens' perceptions of climate change in relation to other world problems; Citizens' perceptions of the seriousness of climate change; The extent to which citizens feel informed about climate change - its causes, consequences and ways of fighting it; Citizens' attitudes towards alternative fuels and CO2 emissions; Whether citizens feel that climate change is stoppable or has been exaggerated, and what impact it has on the European economy; Whether citizens have taken personal action to fight climate change. This Eurobarometer survey was carried out by TNS Opinion and Social network between 16 January and 22 February 2009. The interviews were conducted among 26,718 citizens in the 27 Member States of the European Union, the three candidate countries for accession to the European Union (Croatia, Turkey and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia) and in the Turkish Cypriot Community.

  10. Estimating daily climatologies for climate indices derived from climate model data and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahlstein, Irina; Spirig, Christoph; Liniger, Mark A; Appenzeller, Christof

    2015-01-01

    Climate indices help to describe the past, present, and the future climate. They are usually closer related to possible impacts and are therefore more illustrative to users than simple climate means. Indices are often based on daily data series and thresholds. It is shown that the percentile-based thresholds are sensitive to the method of computation, and so are the climatological daily mean and the daily standard deviation, which are used for bias corrections of daily climate model data. Sample size issues of either the observed reference period or the model data lead to uncertainties in these estimations. A large number of past ensemble seasonal forecasts, called hindcasts, is used to explore these sampling uncertainties and to compare two different approaches. Based on a perfect model approach it is shown that a fitting approach can improve substantially the estimates of daily climatologies of percentile-based thresholds over land areas, as well as the mean and the variability. These improvements are relevant for bias removal in long-range forecasts or predictions of climate indices based on percentile thresholds. But also for climate change studies, the method shows potential for use. Key Points More robust estimates of daily climate characteristics Statistical fitting approach Based on a perfect model approach PMID:26042192

  11. Lichen communities and species indicate climate thresholds in southeast and south-central Alaska, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heather T. Root; Bruce. McCune; Sarah. Jovan

    2014-01-01

    Because of their unique physiology, lichen communities are highly sensitive to climatic conditions,making them ideal bioindicators for climate change. Southeast and south-central Alaska host diverse and abundant lichen communities and are faced with a more rapidly changing climate than many more southerly latitudes. We develop sensitive lichen-based indicators for...

  12. Climatic change: Italian situation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nanni, T.; Prodi, F.

    2008-01-01

    Climate patterns in italy over the last two centuries are reconstructed using a new database of pluviometric and thermometric secular data series performed by the historic climatology group of the ISAC institute of CNR. The series were thoroughly quality checked and homogenized. The analysis shows that in Italy, over the last 200 years, air temperature has increased by about 1 0 C a century. At the same time a decrease in precipitation can be observed, albeit by a little amount and often not significant from a statistical point of view [it

  13. Climate change studies in Estonia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kallaste, Tiit; Kuldna, Piret

    1998-01-01

    The present collection of papers was compiled on the basis of research papers written by Estonian scientists during the United Nations Environment Programme and Global Environment Facility initiated climate change programme Country Case Study on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations Assessments. The Estonian country case study was finally approved by UNEP/GEF in February 1996, practical work started in September. The priorities for Estonia in the study of global climate change impacts and adaptation have been in the following areas of interest: agriculture, water resources, forestry, the Baltic Sea and Estonian coast, also historical climate and socioeconomic background together with the biggest producer of greenhouse gases, the energy sector. Those areas have been studied more carefully during the one and half year period of the project

  14. Projection of future climate changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, Olivier; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Vial, Jessica; Brun, Eric; Cattiaux, Julien; Chauvin, Fabrice; Salas y Melia, David; Voldoire, Aurore; Bopp, Laurent; Braconnot, Pascale; Ciais, Philippe; Yiou, Pascal; Guilyardi, Eric; Mignot, Juliette; Guivarch, Celine

    2015-01-01

    Climate models provide the opportunity to anticipate how the climate system may change due to anthropogenic activities during the 21. century. Studies are based on numerical simulations that explore the evolution of the mean climate and its variability according to different socio-economic scenarios. We present a selection of results from phase 5 of the Climate model intercomparison project (CMIP5) with an illustrative focus on the two French models that participated to this exercise. We describe the effects of human perturbations upon surface temperature, precipitation, the cryo-sphere, but also extreme weather events and the carbon cycle. Results show a number of robust features, on the amplitude and geographical patterns of the expected changes and on the processes at play in these changes. They also show the limitations of such a prospective exercise and persistent uncertainties on some key aspects. (authors)

  15. CLIMATE CHANGES: CAUSES AND IMPACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Slave

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Present brings several environmental problems for people. Many of these are closely related, but by far the most important problem is the climate change. In the course of Earth evolution, climate has changed many times, sometimes dramatically. Warmer eras always replaced and were in turn replaced by glacial ones. However, the climate of the past almost ten thousand years has been very stable. During this period human civilization has also developed. In the past nearly 100 years - since the beginning of industrialization - the global average temperature has increased by approx. 0.6 ° C (after IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, faster than at any time in the last 1000 years.

  16. Air Quality and Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colette, A.; Rouil, L.; Bessagnet, B.; Schucht, S.; Szopa, S.; Vautard, R.; Menut, L.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change and air quality are closely related: through the policy measures implemented to mitigate these major environmental threats but also through the geophysical processes that drive them. We designed, developed and implemented a comprehensive regional air quality and climate modeling System to investigate future air quality in Europe taking into account the combined pressure of future climate change and long range transport. Using the prospective scenarios of the last generation of pathways for both climate change (emissions of well mixed greenhouse gases) and air pollutants, we can provide a quantitative view into the possible future air quality in Europe. We find that ozone pollution will decrease substantially under the most stringent scenario but the efforts of the air quality legislation will be adversely compensated by the penalty of global warming and long range transport for the business as usual scenario. For particulate matter, the projected reduction of emissions efficiently reduces exposure levels. (authors)

  17. Acting efficiently on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appert, Olivier; Moncomble, Jean-Eudes

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is a major issue. A survey of the utility companies that account for 80% of the world's electric power was released during the 20. climate conference in Lima as part of the World Energy Council' Global Electricity Initiative. It has concluded that all these utilities see climate change as being real and declare that policies for adapting to it are as important as policies for limiting it. Nonetheless, 97% of these utilities think that consumers will refuse to pay more for decarbonized electricity. This is the core problem in the fight against climate change: all agree that the issue is urgent, some agree about what should be done, but none wants to pay

  18. Climate Change and Nuclear Power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jurkovic, I.-A.; Feretic, D.; Debrecin, N.

    2000-01-01

    The 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is one of a series of recent agreements through which countries around the world are banding together to meet the challenge of altering the global climate. In 1997, in respond to the growing public pressure and questions on climate change governments adopted the Kyoto Protocol. The 5th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP5 UNFCCC) was a rather technical and complex conference which focused in particular on the development of a detailed framework for the application of ''flexible mechanisms'' as laid down in the Kyoto Protocol. Young Generation Network as a part of the International Nuclear Forum at COP5 took part in the debate saying that nuclear is the part of the solution. (author)

  19. AL:PE - Acidification of Mountain Lakes: Palaeolimnology and Ecology. Part 2 - Remote Mountain Lakes as Indicators of Air Pollution and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wathne, Bente M; Patrick, Simon; Cameron, Nigel [eds.

    1997-07-01

    AL:PE is a multi-disciplinary and multi-national project coordinated by research groups in London and Oslo. It is funded by the European Commission, The project is described in this report. The project is the first comprehensive study of remote mountain lakes on a European scale. It is concerned with ecosystems in the arctic and alpine regions of Europe that are threatened by acid deposition, toxic air pollutants and climatic change despite their remoteness. The studies are important not only for ecosystems of the lakes, for which they were designed, but for the arctic and alpine regions in general, since the lakes with their sediment records act as environmental sensors. The AL:PE results illustrate two overarching issues: (1) the importance of these remote and sensitive ecosystems as sensors of long-range transported pollutants and as providers of early warning signals for more widespread environmental change; and (2) the importance and urgency of understanding the present and future impact of pollutants, both singly and in combination, on aquatic ecosystems. Currently, acid deposition is considered the most potent threat. In the context of global warming, however, it is a formidable scientific challenge to disentangle the interactions between the effects of changing deposition patterns of acids, nutrients, trace metals and trace organics. The AL:PE programme has begun to address this challenge and its successor EU project, MOLAR, is designed to tackle the issues more more specifically by focusing on in-depth studies of key sites. 97 refs., 192 figs., 100 tabs.

  20. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmgren, K; Karlen, W [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography

    1998-12-01

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  1. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmgren, K.; Karlen, W.

    1998-12-01

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  2. Climate change. Managing the risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swart, R.J.

    1994-01-01

    In order to address the key question if a targeted approach to climate change response is feasible, different aspects of this question are analyzed. First, the scientific and political aspects of different options to determine specific long-term objectives for climate change are evaluated on the basis of the current scientific insights and the experiences over the last 5 years to develop climate objectives. Preliminary directions for such objectives are given. Next, important analytical tools are discussed that can be applied to analyze the different options and their implications in detail. In order to evaluate the implications of mitigation options, strategies that are consistent with the preliminary climate goals are analyzed in the third part. In chapter 2, the concept of long-term environmental goals, derived from critical levels of climate change, is discussed. Also a historical perspective is provided. A new, systematic regionalized and risk-based approach to elaborate the ultimate objective of the Framework Convention on Climate Change is proposed. In chapter 3 scenarios and integrated models are discussed. Central is the description of scenarios that were developed with RlVM's Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) and the US-EPA's Atmospheric Stabilization Framework (ASF). In chapter 4 potential long-term international emissions control strategies for the different sources and sinks of the most important greenhouse gases are analyzed. Carbon dioxide from energy, carbon dioxide from deforestation, and non-CO 2 greenhouse gases are dealt with subsequently. The dissertation ends with general conclusions and recommendations for the further design of a targeted approach to climate change response, the development of analytical tools to support policy development in the area of climate change, and strategies that are consistent with preliminary long-term environmental goals. 66 figs., 8 tabs., 417 refs., 1 appendix

  3. Confronting climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-08-01

    Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), especially from energy production and use, and their impact on global climate emerged as a major national issue in the United States during the 1980s. As a result, Congress directed the US Department of Energy (DOE) to ask the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering to assess the current state of research and development (R ampersand D) in the United States in alternative energy sources, and to suggest energy R ampersand D strategies involving roles for both the public and private sectors, should the government want to give priority to stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs. The findings and recommendations of the Committee on Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies, appointed by the National Research Council in response to Congress's directive, are provided in this report and summarized in this chapter. The energy R ampersand D strategies and actions recommended by the committee are structured to facilitate prudent and decisive responses by the United States, despite uncertainties regarding the effects of GHGs on global climate. 96 refs., 4 figs., 17 tabs

  4. Ocean Observations of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Don

    2016-01-01

    The ocean influences climate by storing and transporting large amounts of heat, freshwater, and carbon, and exchanging these properties with the atmosphere. About 93% of the excess heat energy stored by the earth over the last 50 years is found in the ocean. More than three quarters of the total exchange of water between the atmosphere and the earth's surface through evaporation and precipitation takes place over the oceans. The ocean contains 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere and is at present acting to slow the rate of climate change by absorbing one quarter of human emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, cement production, deforestation and other land use change.Here I summarize the observational evidence of change in the ocean, with an emphasis on basin- and global-scale changes relevant to climate. These include: changes in subsurface ocean temperature and heat content, evidence for regional changes in ocean salinity and their link to changes in evaporation and precipitation over the oceans, evidence of variability and change of ocean current patterns relevant to climate, observations of sea level change and predictions over the next century, and biogeochemical changes in the ocean, including ocean acidification.

  5. Climate Change 2014: Technical Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Chrisopher B.; Barros, Vicente; Mach, Katherine; Mastrandrea, Michael; van Aalst, Maarten; Adger, Niel; Arent, Douglas J; Barnett, Jonathan; Betts, Richard; Bilir, Eren; Birkmann, Joern; Carmin, Joann; Chadee, Dave; Challinor, Andrew; Chaterjee, Monalisa; Cramer, Wolfgang; Davidson, Debra; Estrada, Yuka; Gatusso, Jean-Pierre; Hijioka, Yasuakai; Yohe, Gary; Hiza, Margaret; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Huang, He-Qing; Insarov, Gregory; Jones, Roger; Kovats, Sari; Lankao, Patricia Romero; Larsen, Joan Nymand; Losada, Iñigo; Marengo, José; McLean, Roger; Mearns, Linda; Mechler, Reinhard; Morton, John; Niang, Isabelle; Oki, Taikan; Olwoch, Jane Mukarugwiza; Opondo, Maggie; Poloczanska, Elvira; Pörtner, Hans -O.; Reisinger, Andy; Revi, Aromar; Schmidt, Daniela; Shaw, Rebecca; Solecki, William; Stone, Dáithí; Stone, John; Strzepek, Ken; Suarez, Avelino G.; Tschakert, Petra; Valentini, Riccardo; Vicuna, Sebastian; Villamizar, Alicia; Vincent, Katharine; Warren, Rachel; White, Leslie; Wilbanks, Thomas; Wong, Poh Poh

    2014-01-01

    Human interference with the climate system is occurring (WGI AR5 SPM Section D.3; WGI AR5 Sections 2.2, 6.3, 10.3 to 10.6, 10.9). Climate change poses risks for human and natural systems. The assessment of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (WGII AR5) evaluates how patterns of risks and potential benefits are shifting due to climate change. It considers how impacts and risks related to climate change can be reduced and managed through adaptation and mitigation. The report assesses needs, options, opportunities, constraints, resilience, limits, and other aspects associated with adaptation. It recognizes that risks of climate change will vary across regions and populations, through space and time, dependent on myriad factors including the extent of adaptation and mitigation. For the past 2 decades, IPCC’s Working Group II has developed assessments of climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. The WGII AR5 builds from the WGII contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (WGII AR4), published in 2007, and the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX), published in 2012. It follows the Working Group I contribution to the AR5. The WGII AR5 is presented in two parts (Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects, and Part B: Regional Aspects), reflecting the expanded literature basis and multidisciplinary approach, increased focus on societal impacts and responses, and continued regionally comprehensive coverage. [1.1 to 1.3] The number of scientific publications available for assessing climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability more than doubled between 2005 and 2010, with especially rapid increases in publications related to adaptation, allowing for a more robust assessment that supports policymaking (high confidence). The diversity of the topics and regions covered has similarly expanded, as has

  6. Deliberating Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agger, Annika; Jelsøe, Erling; Jæger, Birgit

    considerations regarding how the process was designed in order to be legitimate as a voice for citizens, how different types of knowledge and expert identities were created and negotiated in the event, and how the framing influenced the outcome. The specific conditions of the event, i.e. the relation to a high......The global event World Wide Views on Global Warming (WWV), initiated by the Danish Board of Technology (DBT), took place on September 26, 2009, and was an innovative attempt to gather a united citizen voice on a global scale. As such the WWV is one of the most recent experiments with new ways...... to include the voice of the citizens into complex scientific and technological issues. The purpose of WWV was to pass on the opinions of ordinary citizens to political decision-makers at The United Nations Climate Summit, COP15, in Copenhagen in December 2009. The authors made a study of the Danish WWV event...

  7. Climate change: Factors and forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, W.R.

    1990-01-01

    An overview is presented of global climatic change. The greenhouse effect is an established physical phenomena. The reradiative effects of various anthropogenic gases are scientifically demonstrable, and the increasing concentration of such gases in the atmosphere is irrefutable. The delinquent information is the magnitude of the agravated greenhouse effect (AGE)-induced climatic change, the temporal pace of the change and its spatial distribution. The pace of the climatic change implied by many of the general circulation model (GCM) estimates is for a northern hemispheric warming 10-50 times faster than the change since the last ice age. At a relatively aggregated representation, researching the impact of climate change involves estimating energy use and greenhouse gas atmospheric retention, climate modeling and socio-economic impact models. Recognizing that certain of the impacts of anthropogenic gasses will prove to be cumulative, non-reversible and synergistic, it would be prudent to examine mitigating options for immediate implementation. Given the current degree of scientific uncertainty, response priorities would be on the no-regrets or covering-the-bets options. 14 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  8. Climate change and food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, P.J; Ingram, J.S.I; Brklacich, M

    2005-01-01

    Dynamic interactions between and within the biogeophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food, resulting in food systems that underpin food security. Food systems encompass food availability (production, distribution and exchange), food access (affordability, allocation and preference) and food utilization (nutritional and societal values and safety), so that food security is, therefore, diminished when food systems are stressed. Such stresses may be induced by a range of factors in addition to climate change and/or other agents of environmental change (e.g. conflict, HIV/AIDS) and may be particularly severe when these factors act in combination. Urbanization and globalization are causing rapid changes to food systems. Climate change may affect food systems in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production (e.g. changes in rainfall leading to drought or flooding, or warmer or cooler temperatures leading to changes in the length of growing season), to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. The relative importance of climate change for food security differs between regions. For example, in southern Africa, climate is among the most frequently cited drivers of food insecurity because it acts both as an underlying, ongoing issue and as a short-lived shock. The low ability to cope with shocks and to mitigate long-term stresses means that coping strategies that might be available in other regions are unavailable or inappropriate. In other regions, though, such as parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India, other drivers, such as labour issues and the availability and quality of ground water for irrigation, rank higher than the direct effects of climate change as factors influencing food security. Because of the multiple socio-economic and bio-physical factors affecting food systems and hence food security, the capacity to adapt food systems to reduce their

  9. Simulating Climate Change in Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, P.; Lynch, P.

    2012-04-01

    At the Meteorology & Climate Centre at University College Dublin, we are using the CLM-Community's COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model (RCM) and the WRF RCM (developed at NCAR) to simulate the climate of Ireland at high spatial resolution. To address the issue of model uncertainty, a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach is used. The ensemble method uses different RCMs, driven by several Global Climate Models (GCMs), to simulate climate change. Through the MME approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections is quantified, enabling us to estimate the probability density function of predicted changes, and providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. The RCMs were validated by performing a 20-year simulation of the Irish climate (1981-2000), driven by ECMWF ERA-40 global re-analysis data, and comparing the output to observations. Results confirm that the output of the RCMs exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in the historical data record. Projections for the future Irish climate were generated by downscaling the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5 GCM, the UK Met Office HadGEM2-ES GCM and the CGCM3.1 GCM from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling. Simulations were run for a reference period 1961-2000 and future period 2021-2060. The future climate was simulated using the A1B, A2, B1, RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Results for the downscaled simulations show a substantial overall increase in precipitation and wind speed for the future winter months and a decrease during the summer months. The predicted annual change in temperature is approximately 1.1°C over Ireland. To date, all RCM projections are in general agreement, thus increasing our confidence in the robustness of the results.

  10. Adaptation to climate change and industrial vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garnaud, Benjamin; Ferret, Celine

    2010-06-01

    In today's societies, the production base made up by the industrial fabric acts as an important link between the climate and its variations and our lifestyle. However, several decades of experience have often enabled us to minimise the impact of the weather and its fluctuations on activities, making the industrial sector out to be purely artificial and protected from climate impacts. Yet climate change leads us to challenge this assumption: if the industrial base is supposed to be impervious to the current climate, is this still the case in a context of climate change? In an attempt to answer this question, the Invulnerable project was launched, led by the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI) and bringing together scientific and industrial partners (Meteo-France, IPSL, CERFACS). Observing the availability of scientific resources on climate change, partly resulting from the modeling research coordinated by the IPCC, the idea was to work with industries to identify their vulnerabilities and to use these to define indicators for climatologists. These indicators are not chosen by scientists without consulting industries, but are in fact defined by these industries to ensure they correspond to their needs as closely as possible. The challenge is therefore to bring together scientists and industries and to catalyse a mutual understanding to ensure this discussion results in one or several indicators that are relevant to the activity in question and on which climatologists can work

  11. Biodiversity redistribution under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pecl, Gretta T.; Bastos, Miguel; Bell, Johann D.

    2017-01-01

    Distributions of Earth’s species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by humanmediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that ...... by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals....

  12. Climate change adaptation in Ethiopia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weldegebriel, Zerihun Berhane; Prowse, Martin

    Ethiopia is vulnerable to climate change due to its limited development and dependence on agriculture. Social protection schemes like the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) can play a positive role in promoting livelihoods and enhancing households’ risk management. This article examines......, they suggest the PSNP may not be helping smallholders diversify income sources in a positive manner for climate adaptation. The article concludes by arguing for further investigation of the PSNP’s influence on smallholders’ adaptation strategies....

  13. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Palmer Drought and Crop Moisture Indices

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Palmer Drought Severity and Crop Moisture Indices are computed for the 344 U.S. Climate Divisions on a weekly basis based on a...

  14. Inhalation anaesthetics and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mads Peter Sulbæk; Sander, S P; Nielsen, O J

    2010-01-01

    Although the increasing abundance of CO(2) in our atmosphere is the main driver of the observed climate change, it is the cumulative effect of all forcing agents that dictate the direction and magnitude of the change, and many smaller contributors are also at play. Isoflurane, desflurane, and sev...

  15. Climate change: Wilderness's greatest challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nathan L. Stephenson; Connie Millar

    2014-01-01

    Anthropogenic climatic change can no longer be considered an abstract possibility. It is here, its effects are already evident, and changes are expected to accelerate in coming decades, profoundly altering wilderness ecosystems. At the most fundamental level, wilderness stewards will increasingly be confronted with a trade-off between untrammeled wilderness character...

  16. Climate change: where to now?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pearman, Graeme

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: The potential for human impact on global climate arose out of an understanding developed in the 19th century of the physical conditions influencing global temperatures. In the past three decades, observations and improved understanding of climate processes have led to the conclusions that the planet has warmed, this warming has been primarily due to increases of atmospheric greenhouse gases and that this has been due to human activities. But our knowledge is incomplete. The management of the risks associated with future climate change demands improvement of the knowledge base. Specific areas for improvement include the: role of aerosols in the amelioration or otherwise of warming trends; potential instability of systems, e.g. the deglaciation of Greenland that could lead to rapid destabilisation of climate; response of biological systems to climate change, their phrenology, behaviour, genetics and dispersion; opportunities for cost-effective managed adaptation; and improved technologies for meeting the energy demands. Climate science has been characterised by a level of integration of disciplinary fields uncommon in other areas. Yet the nature of the climate system, its diverse impacts and the range of mitigation options suggests that while disciplinary endeavours need to continue, further integration is required. Policy development requires the exploration of options that respect the complexity of climate and its impacts but also the pluralistic aspirations of societies. The 21st century should be characterised by considered, inclusive and strategic policy development. For science to contribute to this process, much more attention is needed to the processes involved in the exchange of knowledge between the scientific community and those who develop public or private policy. A new engagement and shared understanding of the potential role of science in modern societies, particularly with respect to climate change, is an essential component of

  17. Climate change and respiratory health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerardi, Daniel A; Kellerman, Roy A

    2014-10-01

    To discuss the nature of climate change and both its immediate and long-term effects on human respiratory health. This review is based on information from a presentation of the American College of Chest Physicians course on Occupational and Environmental Lung Disease held in Toronto, Canada, June 2013. It is supplemented by a PubMed search for climate change, global warming, respiratory tract diseases, and respiratory health. It is also supplemented by a search of Web sites including the Environmental Protection Agency, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, World Meteorological Association, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change, and the World Health Organization. Health effects of climate change include an increase in the prevalence of certain respiratory diseases, exacerbations of chronic lung disease, premature mortality, allergic responses, and declines in lung function. Climate change, mediated by greenhouse gases, causes adverse health effects to the most vulnerable patient populations-the elderly, children, and those in distressed socioeconomic strata.

  18. Climate Change and Fish Availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Paul P. S.; Lassa, Jonatan; Caballero-Anthony, Mely

    Human consumption of fish has been trending upwards in the past decades and this is projected to continue. The main sources of fish are from wild fisheries (marine and freshwater) and aquaculture. Climate change is anticipated to affect the availability of fish through its effect on these two sources as well as on supply chain processes such as storage, transport, processing and retail. Climate change is known to result in warmer and more acid oceans. Ocean acidification due to higher CO2 concentration levels at sea modifies the distribution of phytoplankton and zooplankton to affect wild, capture fisheries. Higher temperature causes warm-water coral reefs to respond with species replacement and bleaching, leading to coral cover loss and habitat loss. Global changes in climatic systems may also cause fish invasion, extinction and turnover. While this may be catastrophic for small scale fish farming in poor tropical communities, there are also potential effects on animal protein supply shifts at local and global scales with food security consequences. This paper discusses the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture in the Asian Pacific region, with special emphasis on Southeast Asia. The key question to be addressed is “What are the impacts of global climate change on global fish harvests and what does it mean to the availability of fish?”

  19. Three eras of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huq, Saleemul; Toulmin, Camilla

    2006-10-15

    Climate change as a global challenge has evolved through a series of stages in the last few decades. We are now on the brink of a new era which will see the terms of the debate shift once again. The different eras are characterised by the scientific evidence, public perceptions, responses and engagement of different groups to address the problem. In the first era, from the late 1980s to 2000, climate change was seen as an “environmental” problem to do with prevention of future impacts on the planet's climate systems over the next fifty to hundred years, through reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases, known as “mitigation”. The second era can be said to have started around the turn of the millennium, with the recognition that there will be some unavoidable impacts from climate change in the near term (over the next decade or two). These impacts must be coped with through “adaptation”, as well as mitigation, to prevent much more severe and possibly catastrophic impacts in the longer term. It has become clear that many of the impacts of climate change in the near term are likely to fall on the poorest countries and communities. The third era, which we are just about to enter, will see the issue change from tackling an environmental or development problem to a question of “global justice”. It will engage with a much wider array of citizens from around the world than previous eras.

  20. Energy and water fluxes above a cacao agroforestry system in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, indicate effects of land-use change on local climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Falk, U.; Ibrom, A.; Oltchev, A.; Kreilein, H.; Merklein, J.; Gravenhorst, G. [Inst. of Bioclimatology, Univ. Goettingen (Germany); June, T. [Inst. Pertanian Bogor, BIOTROP-ICSEA, Bogor (Indonesia); Rauf, A. [Univ. Tadulako, Palu (Indonesia)

    2005-04-01

    Rapid conversion of tropical rainforests to agricultural land-use types occurs throughout Indonesia and South-East Asia. We hypothesize that these changes in land-use affect the turbulent heat exchange processes between vegetation and the atmosphere, and the radiative properties of the surface, and therefore, induce an impact on local climate and water flows. As part of the international research project (SFB 552, Stability of Rainforest Margins in Indonesia, STORMA) the turbulent heat fluxes over a cacao agroforestry system (AFS) were investigated, using the eddy covariance technique. These first heat flux observations above a cacao AFS showed an unexpectedly large contribution of the sensible heat flux to the total turbulent heat transport, resulting in an averaged day-time Bowen ratio of {beta} = H/{lambda}E {approx} 1. Seasonality of {beta} did mainly coincide with the seasonal course of precipitation, which amounted to 1970 mm yr{sup -1} during the investigated period. The findings are compared to investigations at four neotropical rain forests where daytime {beta} were substantially smaller than 1. All discussed sites received similar incident short wave radiation, however, precipitation at the neotropical sites was much higher. Our first observations in a nearby Indonesian upland rain forest where precipitation was comparable to that at the cacao AFS showed an intermediate behaviour. Differences in {beta} between the cacao AFS and the tropical forests are discussed as a consequence of differing precipitation amounts, and albedo. From these comparisons we conclude that conversion from tropical forests to cacao AFS affects the energy fluxes towards increased heating of the day-time convective boundary-layer. (orig.)

  1. Western water and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2015-01-01

    The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northernmost West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent.

  2. Conceptual Model of Climate Change Impacts at LANL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dewart, Jean Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-17

    Goal 9 of the LANL FY15 Site Sustainability Plan (LANL 2014a) addresses Climate Change Adaptation. As part of Goal 9, the plan reviews many of the individual programs the Laboratory has initiated over the past 20 years to address climate change impacts to LANL (e.g. Wildland Fire Management Plan, Forest Management Plan, etc.). However, at that time, LANL did not yet have a comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation. To fill this gap, the FY15 Work Plan for the LANL Long Term Strategy for Environmental Stewardship and Sustainability (LANL 2015) included a goal of (1) establishing a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts at LANL and (2) establishing specific climate change indices to measure climate change and impacts at Los Alamos. Establishing a conceptual model of climate change impacts will demonstrate that the Laboratory is addressing climate change impacts in a comprehensive manner. This paper fulfills the requirement of goal 1. The establishment of specific indices of climate change at Los Alamos (goal 2), will improve our ability to determine climate change vulnerabilities and assess risk. Future work will include prioritizing risks, evaluating options/technologies/costs, and where appropriate, taking actions. To develop a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts, we selected the framework provided in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Resilience Toolkit (http://toolkit.climate.gov/).

  3. Expansion Under Climate Change: The Genetic Consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garnier, Jimmy; Lewis, Mark A

    2016-11-01

    Range expansion and range shifts are crucial population responses to climate change. Genetic consequences are not well understood but are clearly coupled to ecological dynamics that, in turn, are driven by shifting climate conditions. We model a population with a deterministic reaction-diffusion model coupled to a heterogeneous environment that develops in time due to climate change. We decompose the resulting travelling wave solution into neutral genetic components to analyse the spatio-temporal dynamics of its genetic structure. Our analysis shows that range expansions and range shifts under slow climate change preserve genetic diversity. This is because slow climate change creates range boundaries that promote spatial mixing of genetic components. Mathematically, the mixing leads to so-called pushed travelling wave solutions. This mixing phenomenon is not seen in spatially homogeneous environments, where range expansion reduces genetic diversity through gene surfing arising from pulled travelling wave solutions. However, the preservation of diversity is diminished when climate change occurs too quickly. Using diversity indices, we show that fast expansions and range shifts erode genetic diversity more than slow range expansions and range shifts. Our study provides analytical insight into the dynamics of travelling wave solutions in heterogeneous environments.

  4. Market Strategies for Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J. [Business School, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2004-06-01

    The issue of climate change has attracted increasing business attention in the past decade. Whereas companies initially aimed primarily at influencing the policy debate, corporate strategies increasingly include economic responses. Existing classifications for climate change strategies however still reflect the political, non-market components. Using empirical information from the largest multinational companies worldwide, this article examines current market responses, focusing on the drivers (threats and opportunities) and the actions being taken by companies to address climate change. It also develops a typology of climate strategies that addresses the market dimensions, covering both the aim (strategic intent) and the degree of cooperation (form of organisation). The aim turns out to be either innovation or compensation, while the organisational arrangements to reach this objective can be oriented at the company level (internal), at companies' own supply chain (vertical) or at cooperation with other companies (competitors or companies in other sectors - horizontal). The typology can assist managers in deciding about the strategic option(s) they want to choose regarding climate change, also based on the insights offered by the paper about the current state of activities of other companies worldwide.

  5. EU focus on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    Faced with the mounting evidence of the harmful effects of climate change, the European Union is convinced that the world must take urgent action to tackle the problem. That is why the EU has been at the forefront of international efforts to deal with climate change for well over a decade. The EU is convinced that the status quo is simply not an option. Without urgent, concerted action, the problem will continue to get worse with potentially disastrous consequences. That is why the European Union has consistently taken the lead in international moves to tackle climate change and why it will continue to develop this strategy for as long as it takes to guarantee a world for ourselves and our children where everyone can grow, breathe and live in safety

  6. Climate engineering research : A precautionary response to climate change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reynolds, J.L.; Fleurke, F.M.

    2013-01-01

    In the face of dire forecasts for anthropogenic climate change, climate engineering is increasingly discussed as a possible additional set of responses to reduce climate change’s threat. These proposals have been controversial, in part because they – like climate change itself – pose uncertain risks

  7. Recent climate changes in the northern hemisphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trenberth, K.E.

    1990-01-01

    The consistency of analyzed changes in surface wind stress, sea level pressures and surface temperatures between 1980-86 and previous periods indicates the reality of statistically significant and substantial climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere, especially over the North Pacific, on decadal time scales. Cooling in North Pacific sea surface temperatures and warming along the west coast of North America and Alaska are ascribed mainly to the changes in thermal advection associated with a deeper and more extensive Aleutian Low

  8. Climate of Tajikistan in connection with global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khakimov, F.Kh.; Mirzokhonova, S.O.; Mirzokhonava, N.A.

    2006-01-01

    The analysis of global climate change for different periods and its consequences on regional climate is given. The chronology of climate change in Tajikistan in various regions and the reasons leading or resulted to these changes are changes are shown as well

  9. Arctic action against climatic changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njaastad, Birgit

    2000-01-01

    The articles describes efforts to map the climatic changes in the Arctic regions through the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Project which is a joint venture between eight Arctic countries: Denmark, Canada, the USA, Russia, Finland, Sweden and Norway. The project deals with the consequences of the changes such as the UV radiation due to diminishing ozone layers. The aims are: Evaluate and integrate existing knowledge in the field and evaluate and predict the consequences particularly on the environment both in the present and the future and produce reliable and useful information in order to aid the decision-making processes

  10. Climate change: a political assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Keefe, W. [Solutions Consulting (USA)

    2000-07-01

    The paper consists of the author's personal remarks on a political assessment of climate change policy in the United States. The author focuses on four major political forces; environmental organisations, the Clinton-Gore administration, the U.S. senate and the business community. The author considers that much of the climate change debate is scaremongering by the environmentalists with little scientific basis. There is a need for business to present its case better if it is to avoid economically damaging, but unjustified environmental regulations.

  11. Climate Change and Public Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciesielski, Timothy

    2017-05-01

    It is clear that the public health community is concerned about the human health impacts of climate change, but are we inadvertently underestimating the scope of the problem and obfuscating potentially useful interventions by using a narrow intellectual frame in our discussions with policy makers? If we take a more holistic approach, we see that the public health impacts of climate change are only one subset of the enormous public health impacts of fossil fuel burning. This broader perspective can provide a more accurate and comprehensive assessment that is more useful for decision making in public policy settings.

  12. A history of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hastrup, Kirsten Blinkenberg

    2016-01-01

    This article presents a small community of High Arctic hunters (the Inughuit in North West Greenland) who have always had to negotiate climatic changes with great impact on their living conditions. This points us toward the natural-social entanglements implied in the notion of the Anthropocene......, and to the new intellectual challenges that both natural and social scientists are facing in relation to the current climatic changes. These challenges are discussed through the case of the Inughuit with whom the author has worked over many years. Departing from their dire situation in the 19th century, when...

  13. Public Engagement on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curry, J.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change communication is complicated by complexity of the scientific problem, multiple perspectives on the magnitude of the risk from climate change, often acrimonious disputes between scientists, high stakes policy options, and overall politicization of the issue. Efforts to increase science literacy as a route towards persuasion around the need for a policy like cap and trade have failed, because the difficulty that a scientist has in attempting to make sense of the social and political complexity is very similar to the complexity facing the general public as they try to make sense of climate science itself. In this talk I argue for a shift from scientists and their institutions as information disseminators to that of public engagement and enablers of public participation. The goal of engagement is not just to inform, but to enable, motivate and educate the public regarding the technical, political, and social dimensions of climate change. Engagement is a two-way process where experts and decision-makers seek input and learn from the public about preferences, needs, insights, and ideas relative to climate change impacts, vulnerabilities, solutions and policy options. Effective public engagement requires that scientists detach themselves from trying to control what the public does with the acquired knowledge and motivation. The goal should not be to "sell" the public on particular climate change solutions, since such advocacy threatens public trust in scientists and their institutions. Conduits for public engagement include the civic engagement approach in the context of community meetings, and perhaps more significantly, the blogosphere. Since 2006, I have been an active participant in the climate blogosphere, focused on engaging with people that are skeptical of AGW. A year ago, I started my own blog Climate Etc. at judithcurry.com. The demographic that I have focused my communication/engagement activities are the technically educated and scientifically

  14. Analysis and detection of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thejll, P.; Stendel, M.

    2001-01-01

    The authors first discuss the concepts 'climate' and 'climate change detection', outlining the difficulties of the latter in terms of the properties of the former. In more detail they then discuss the analysis and detection, carried out at the Danish Climate Centre, of anthropogenic climate change and the nonanthropogenic changes regarding anthropogenic climate change the emphasis is on the improvement of global and regional climate models, and the reconstruction of past climates regarding non-anthropogenic changes the authors describe two case studies of potential solar influence on climate. (LN)

  15. Challenges of climate change: an Arctic perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corell, Robert W

    2006-06-01

    Climate change is being experienced particularly intensely in the Arctic. Arctic average temperature has risen at almost twice the rate as that of the rest of the world in the past few decades. Widespread melting of glaciers and sea ice and rising permafrost temperatures present additional evidence of strong Arctic warming. These changes in the Arctic provide an early indication of the environmental and societal significance of global consequences. The Arctic also provides important natural resources to the rest of the world (such as oil, gas, and fish) that will be affected by climate change, and the melting of Arctic glaciers is one of the factors contributing to sea level rise around the globe. An acceleration of these climatic trends is projected to occur during this century, due to ongoing increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere. These Arctic changes will, in turn, impact the planet as a whole.

  16. Climatic servitude: climate change, business and politics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belouve, J.M.

    2009-01-01

    This book is together a contemporary history book and a global dossier about a topic of prime importance in our civilization. It treats of the history of science, of ideas and events put in the modern civilization context, of science situation and scientific controversies, of the media aspects, of carbon economy and its related business, of Al Gore's and Maurice Strong's biographies, and finally, it makes a critical geopolitical analysis and makes proposals for a renovated ecology. In the conclusion, the author shows how climate change has become the hobbyhorse of a new thinking trend, namely the New World Order, aiming at conducting people to the acceptance of constraining policies encompassing the energy security of nations, new taxes, a worldwide economic disruption, the limitation of the World's population, and a World governance supported by the United Nations and not constrained by classical democratic rules. (J.S.)

  17. Changing habits, changing climate : a foundation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enright, W.

    2001-03-01

    If Canada intends to meet its greenhouse gas reduction target of 6 per cent below 1990 levels, a fundamental shift in energy use by Canadians is required. The health sector will also be required to change. Global climate change is expected to affect regions differently, some might get wetter, some might get warmer, and others still might get colder. Climate changes will influence a number of health determinants: the geographical range of disease organisms and vectors; temperature extremes and violent weather events; air, food and water quality; the stability of ecosystems. There is a requirement to strongly regulate the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases to limit health risks. Increased air pollution could negatively affect large numbers of people, especially asthma sufferers and people suffering from chronic respiratory ailments and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in precipitation and temperature could increase insect-borne diseases. Water sources could be badly affected by drought, flooding or increased glacial runoff. The thinning of the ozone layer could result in additional skin cancers, impaired vision and other diseases. The document explores the various impacts resulting from climate change. A chapter is devoted to each topic: air pollution, temperature extremes, extreme weather events, vector borne diseases, drought and increased evaporation, food supply and ecosystem range, sea level rise, stratospheric ozone depletion and describes the health impacts. In addition, a chapter deals with aboriginal communities. The topic of environmental refugees is discussed, followed by an historical perspective into climate change policy in Canada. The author concludes with adaptation measures. Further emphasis must be placed on priority topics such as the estimation of future emissions and modelling of climate processes. refs., tabs., figs

  18. Case grows for climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hileman, B.

    1999-08-09

    In the four years since the IPCC stated that 'the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate', evidence for anomalous warming has become more compelling, and as a result scientists have become more concerned that human-induced climate change has already arrived. The article summarises recent extra evidence on global temperatures, carbon dioxide measurements, ice shelf breakup, coral bleaching, unstable climates and improved climate models. At the time of the Kyoto conference, the US became keen on the idea that enhancing forest and soil carbon sequestration was a good way to offset emissions reduction targets. Congress is however under the opinion on that the Kyoto protocol presents a threat to the US economy, and senate is very unlikely to ratify the protocol during the Clinton Administration. The debate as to whether the US government should mandate major emission reduction or wait for more scientific certainty may continue for a number of years, but, growing concern of scientists and the public for the harmful effects of climate change may cause a change. 4 figs., 8 photos.

  19. Mangrove ecosystems under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennerjahn, T.C.; Gilman, E.; Krauss, Ken W.; Lacerda, L.D.; Nordhaus, I.; Wolanski, E.

    2017-01-01

    This chapter assesses the response of mangrove ecosystems to possible outcomes of climate change, with regard to the following categories: (i) distribution, diversity, and community composition, (ii) physiology of flora and fauna, (iii) water budget, (iv) productivity and remineralization, (v) carbon storage in biomass and sediments, and (vi) the filter function for elements beneficial or harmful to life. These categories are then used to identify the regions most vulnerable to climate change. The four most important factors determining the response of mangrove ecosystems to climate change are sea level rise, an increase in frequency and/or intensity of storms, increases in temperature, and aridity. While these changes may be beneficial for some mangrove forests at latitudinal distribution limits, they will threaten forest structure and functions and related ecosystem services in most cases. The interaction of climate change with human interventions is discussed, as well as the effects on ecosystem services including possible adaptation and management options. The chapter closes with an outlook on knowledge gaps and priority research needed to fill these gaps.

  20. The origin of climate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delecluse, P

    2008-08-01

    Investigation on climate change is coordinated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has the delicate task of collecting recent knowledge on climate change and the related impacts of the observed changes, and then developing a consensus statement from these findings. The IPCC's last review, published at the end of 2007, summarised major findings on the present climate situation. The observations show a clear increase in the temperature of the Earth's surface and the oceans, a reduction in the land snow cover, and melting of the sea ice and glaciers. Numerical modelling combined with statistical analysis has shown that this warming trend is very likely the signature of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases linked with human activities. Given the continuing social and economic development around the world, the IPCC emission scenarios forecast an increasing greenhouse effect, at least until 2050 according to the most optimistic models. The model ensemble predicts a rising temperature that will reach dangerous levels for the biosphere and ecosystems within this century. Hydrological systems and the potential significant impacts of these systems on the environment are also discussed. Facing this challenging future, societies must take measures to reduce emissions and work on adapting to an inexorably changing environment. Present knowledge is sufficientto start taking action, but a stronger foundation is needed to ensure that pertinent long-term choices are made that will meet the demands of an interactive and rapidly evolving world.

  1. The economics of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    An international Conference on the Economics of Climate Change was convened by the OECD and the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, in June 1993. Participants included many of the world's foremost experts in the field, as well as representatives from business, labour, and other non-governmental organisations. The Conference sought to examine points of consensus and divergence among existing studies on the economics of climate change. Participants also focused on how economic analysis could contribute to meeting the obligations of OECD countries under the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change. Discussions centered on such topics as the economic costs and benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies, the potential role of carbon taxes and other economic instruments in the policy mix, possibilities for technological change and diffusion, especially in the energy sector, and joint abatement action between industrialized and developing countries. This volume contains the papers presented at the Conference, as well as summaries of the subsequent discussions. It provides an overview of the 'state of the art' in the economics of climate change and several suggestions for future research. (author)

  2. Climate Change and Algal Blooms =

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Shengpan

    Algal blooms are new emerging hazards that have had important social impacts in recent years. However, it was not very clear whether future climate change causing warming waters and stronger storm events would exacerbate the algal bloom problem. The goal of this dissertation was to evaluate the sensitivity of algal biomass to climate change in the continental United States. Long-term large-scale observations of algal biomass in inland lakes are challenging, but are necessary to relate climate change to algal blooms. To get observations at this scale, this dissertation applied machine-learning algorithms including boosted regression trees (BRT) in remote sensing of chlorophyll-a with Landsat TM/ETM+. The results show that the BRT algorithm improved model accuracy by 15%, compared to traditional linear regression. The remote sensing model explained 46% of the total variance of the ground-measured chlorophyll- a in the first National Lake Assessment conducted by the US Environmental Protection Agency. That accuracy was ecologically meaningful to study climate change impacts on algal blooms. Moreover, the BRT algorithm for chlorophyll- a would not have systematic bias that is introduced by sediments and colored dissolved organic matter, both of which might change concurrently with climate change and algal blooms. This dissertation shows that the existing atmospheric corrections for Landsat TM/ETM+ imagery might not be good enough to improve the remote sensing of chlorophyll-a in inland lakes. After deriving long-term algal biomass estimates from Landsat TM/ETM+, time series analysis was used to study the relations of climate change and algal biomass in four Missouri reservoirs. The results show that neither temperature nor precipitation was the only factor that controlled temporal variation of algal biomass. Different reservoirs, even different zones within the same reservoir, responded differently to temperature and precipitation changes. These findings were further

  3. Regional projection of climate impact indices over the Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casanueva, Ana; Frías, M.; Dolores; Herrera, Sixto; Bedia, Joaquín; San Martín, Daniel; Gutiérrez, José Manuel; Zaninovic, Ksenija

    2014-05-01

    Climate Impact Indices (CIIs) are being increasingly used in different socioeconomic sectors to transfer information about climate change impacts and risks to stakeholders. CIIs are typically based on different weather variables such as temperature, wind speed, precipitation or humidity and comprise, in a single index, the relevant meteorological information for the particular impact sector (in this study wildfires and tourism). This dependence on several climate variables poses important limitations to the application of statistical downscaling techniques, since physical consistency among variables is required in most cases to obtain reliable local projections. The present study assesses the suitability of the "direct" downscaling approach, in which the downscaling method is directly applied to the CII. In particular, for illustrative purposes, we consider two popular indices used in the wildfire and tourism sectors, the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and the Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET), respectively. As an example, two case studies are analysed over two representative Mediterranean regions of interest for the EU CLIM-RUN project: continental Spain for the FWI and Croatia for the PET. Results obtained with this "direct" downscaling approach are similar to those found from the application of the statistical downscaling to the individual meteorological drivers prior to the index calculation ("component" downscaling) thus, a wider range of statistical downscaling methods could be used. As an illustration, future changes in both indices are projected by applying two direct statistical downscaling methods, analogs and linear regression, to the ECHAM5 model. Larger differences were found between the two direct statistical downscaling approaches than between the direct and the component approaches with a single downscaling method. While these examples focus on particular indices and Mediterranean regions of interest for CLIM-RUN stakeholders, the same study

  4. Integrated assessment of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgan, M.G.

    1994-01-01

    Many researchers are working on all the separate parts of the climate problem. The objective of integrated assessment is to put the results from this work together in order to look carefully at the big picture so as to: (1) keep a proper sense of perspective about the problem, since climate change will occur in the presence of many other natural and human changes; (2) develop the understanding necessary to support informed decision making by many different key public and private actors around the world; and (3) assure that the type and mix of climate-related research that is undertaken will be as useful as possible to decisions makers in both the near and long term. This paper outlines a set of design guidelines for formulating integrated assessment programs and projects and then outlines some of the current problems and opportunities. Selected points are illustrated by drawing on results from the integrated assessment research now in progress at Carnegie Mellon University

  5. Arctic climate change in NORKLIMA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    The NORKLIMA programme is the national Norwegian initiative on climate research established for the period 2004-2013. The programme seeks to generate key knowledge about climate trends, the impacts of climate change, and how Norway can adapt to these changes. The NORKLIMA programme also encompasses research on instruments and policies for reducing emissions. Large-scale Programmes As part of the effort to meet national research-policy priorities, the Research Council has established a special funding instrument called the Large-scale Programmes. This initiative is designed to build long-term knowledge in order to encourage innovation and enhance value creation as well as to help find solutions to important challenges facing society.(Author)

  6. Altering the Climate of Poverty under Climate Change : the Forests ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    This project aims to underscore the importance of the Congo basin forests in climate ... Shaping forest safety nets with markets : adaptation to climate change under changing roles ... Driving vaccine innovations to improve lives and livelihoods.

  7. Indexes of leading climate indicators for impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Easterling, W.E.; Kates, R.W.

    1995-01-01

    Could users of climate information for impact assessment be overlooking an important source of information in climate indicators? We argue that indexes of leading climate indicators of impacts may be usable knowledge for consumers and may provide guidance to the global climate observing community concerning the types of data and information that users need. Five classes of indexes are suggested: Climate Extremes Index (CEI) and Greenhouse Climate Response Index (GCRI) - such are already available from scientists at the US National Climatic Data Center - plus proposed indexes of Hazard Warning, Ecosystem Health, and Energy Demand and Renewable Natural Resources. We conclude that the CEI and GCRI posses several necessary attributes to become usable knowledge; the other indexes have the potential to become usable knowledge, but remain to be implemented with climate data and fully evaluated. 34 refs

  8. Forest disturbances under climate change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Seidl, R.; Thom, D.; Kautz, M.; Martin-Benito, D.; Peltoniemi, M.; Vacchiano, G.; Wild, Jan; Ascoli, D.; Petr, M.; Honkaniemi, J.; Lexer, M. J.; Trotsiuk, V.; Mairota, P.; Svoboda, M.; Fabrika, M.; Nagel, T.A.; Reyer, C. P. O.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 7, č. 6 (2017), s. 395-402 ISSN 1758-678X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LD15158 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : climate change * disturbance * forest Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Ecology Impact factor: 19.304, year: 2016

  9. Biome redistribution under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominique Bachelet; Ronald P. Neilson

    2000-01-01

    General warming in the Northern Hemisphere has been recorded since the end of the 1800s following the Little Ice Age. Records of glacier retreat during the last 100 years over the entire globe independently confirmed the recorded trend in global temperature rise. Several studies have illustrated various responses to this climate forcing, i.e., the recorded changes in...

  10. Climate Change and Future World

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    of water-borne diseases such as cholera and malaria which, if uncontrolled, could generate epidemics.27 More frequent and more intense extreme 7... Mexico , and the United States. All these trends produced by climate change are likely to increase migration movements to the U.S., and the occurrence

  11. Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2017-10-02

    Oct 2, 2017 ... climate change at the district level in Ghana was at the elementary stage, ... and destroyed 7,152 hectares of crops, 45 schools, 39 dams, 542 km of ... In response to growing demands from the local and international levels, ...

  12. Climate change and human health

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanderson, G.

    1991-01-01

    Changes in the earth's climate, stemming from the greenhouse effect, are highly likely to damage human health. As well as the disruptions to food and fresh water supplies, there is the prospect of major diseases flourishing in warmer conditions, in addition the decrease in the ozone layer is causing an increased incidence of skin cancer

  13. Emergency Managers Confront Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John R. Labadie

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Emergency managers will have to deal with the impending, uncertain, and possibly extreme effects of climate change. Yet, many emergency managers are not aware of the full range of possible effects, and they are unsure of their place in the effort to plan for, adapt to, and cope with those effects. This may partly reflect emergency mangers’ reluctance to get caught up in the rancorous—and politically-charged—debate about climate change, but it mostly is due to the worldview shared by most emergency managers. We focus on: extreme events; acute vs. chronic hazards (floods vs. droughts; a shorter event horizon (5 years vs. 75–100 years; and a shorter planning and operational cycle. This paper explores the important intersection of emergency management, environmental management, and climate change mitigation and adaptation. It examines the different definitions of terms common to all three fields, the overlapping strategies used in all three fields, and the best means of collaboration and mutual re-enforcement among the three to confront and solve the many possible futures that we may face in the climate change world.

  14. Climate Change and Respiratory Infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirsaeidi, Mehdi; Motahari, Hooman; Taghizadeh Khamesi, Mojdeh; Sharifi, Arash; Campos, Michael; Schraufnagel, Dean E

    2016-08-01

    The rate of global warming has accelerated over the past 50 years. Increasing surface temperature is melting glaciers and raising the sea level. More flooding, droughts, hurricanes, and heat waves are being reported. Accelerated changes in climate are already affecting human health, in part by altering the epidemiology of climate-sensitive pathogens. In particular, climate change may alter the incidence and severity of respiratory infections by affecting vectors and host immune responses. Certain respiratory infections, such as avian influenza and coccidioidomycosis, are occurring in locations previously unaffected, apparently because of global warming. Young children and older adults appear to be particularly vulnerable to rapid fluctuations in ambient temperature. For example, an increase in the incidence in childhood pneumonia in Australia has been associated with sharp temperature drops from one day to the next. Extreme weather events, such as heat waves, floods, major storms, drought, and wildfires, are also believed to change the incidence of respiratory infections. An outbreak of aspergillosis among Japanese survivors of the 2011 tsunami is one such well-documented example. Changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and air pollution influence viral activity and transmission. For example, in early 2000, an outbreak of Hantavirus respiratory disease was linked to a local increase in the rodent population, which in turn was attributed to a two- to threefold increase in rainfall before the outbreak. Climate-sensitive respiratory pathogens present challenges to respiratory health that may be far greater in the foreseeable future.

  15. A Lesson on Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Jim

    This cooperative learning activity, for grades 7-12, promotes critical thinking skills within the context of learning about the causes and effects of climate change. Objectives include: (1) understanding factors that reduce greenhouse gases; (2) understanding the role of trees in reducing greenhouse gases; (3) identifying foods that produce…

  16. Regional Highlights of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    David L. Peterson; J.M. Wolken; Teresa Hollingsworth; Christian Giardina; J.S. Littell; Linda Joyce; Chris Swanston; Stephen Handler; Lindsey Rustad; Steve McNulty

    2014-01-01

    Climatic extremes, ecological disturbance, and their interactions are expected to have major effects on ecosystems and social systems in most regions of the United States in the coming decades. In Alaska, where the largest temperature increases have occurred, permafrost is melting, carbon is being released, and fire regimes are changing, leading to a...

  17. Climatic Change and Human Evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garratt, John R.

    1995-01-01

    Traces the history of the Earth over four billion years, and shows how climate has had an important role to play in the evolution of humans. Posits that the world's rapidly growing human population and its increasing use of energy is the cause of present-day changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. (Author/JRH)

  18. The Whiteness of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lars

    2011-01-01

    This article examines two major debates in contemporary Australian discourses on the nation: climate change and whiteness studies. It is primarily concerned with establishing a framework for connecting the two discourses, and in that process it raises pivotal questions about how narratives about...

  19. The Science of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppenheimer, Michael; Anttila-Hughes, Jesse K.

    2016-01-01

    Michael Oppenheimer and Jesse Anttila-Hughes begin with a primer on how the greenhouse effect works, how we know that Earth is rapidly getting warmer, and how we know that the recent warming is caused by human activity. They explain the sources of scientific knowledge about climate change as well as the basis for the models scientists use to…

  20. Climate Change: Evidence and Causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The fundamentals of climate change are well established: greenhouse gases warm the planet; their concentrations in the atmosphere are increasing; Earth has warmed, and is going to continue warming with a range of impacts. This article summarises the contents of a recent publication issued by the UK's Royal Society and the US National Academy of…

  1. Nuclear energy and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez Jimenez, A.

    2002-01-01

    Energy is one of the essential motives for social and economic development of the humanity. Nuclear energy is a feasible option to stand up to a larger demand of energy, and it is playing, and will continue playing in the future, a decisive role in the debate about climate change and sustainable development, and in the efforts to reduce the CO 2 emissions. (Author)

  2. Climate change and related activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The production and consumption of energy contributes to the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and is the focus of other environmental concerns as well. Yet the use of energy contributes to worldwide economic growth and development. If we are to achieve environmentally sound economic growth, we must develop and deploy energy technologies that contribute to global stewardship. The Department of Energy carries out an aggressive scientific research program to address some of the key uncertainties associated with the climate change issue. Of course, research simply to study the science of global climate change is not enough. At the heart of any regime of cost-effective actions to address the possibility of global climate change will be a panoply of new technologies-technologies both to provide the services we demand and to use energy more efficiently than in the past. These, too, are important areas of responsibility for the Department. This report is a brief description of the Department's activities in scientific research, technology development, policy studies, and international cooperation that are directly related to or have some bearing on the issue of global climate change

  3. Underestimating belief in climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jost, John T.

    2018-03-01

    People are influenced by second-order beliefs — beliefs about the beliefs of others. New research finds that citizens in the US and China systematically underestimate popular support for taking action to curb climate change. Fortunately, they seem willing and able to correct their misperceptions.

  4. Changing Climates @ Colorado State: 100 (Multidisciplinary) Views of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, S.; Calderazzo, J.; Changing Climates, Cmmap Education; Diversity Team

    2011-12-01

    We would like to talk about a multidisciplinary education and outreach program we co-direct at Colorado State University, with support from an NSF-funded STC, CMMAP, the Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes. We are working to raise public literacy about climate change by providing information that is high quality, up to date, thoroughly multidisciplinary, and easy for non-specialists to understand. Our primary audiences are college-level students, their teachers, and the general public. Our motto is Climate Change is Everybody's Business. To encourage and help our faculty infuse climate-change content into their courses, we have organized some 115 talks given by as many different speakers-speakers drawn from 28 academic departments, all 8 colleges at CSU, and numerous other entities from campus, the community, and farther afield. We began with a faculty-teaching-faculty series and then broadened our attentions to the whole campus and surrounding community. Some talks have been for narrowly focused audiences such as extension agents who work on energy, but most are for more eclectic groups of students, staff, faculty, and citizens. We count heads at most events, and our current total is roughly 6,000. We have created a website (http://changingclimates.colostate.edu) that includes videotapes of many of these talks, short videos we have created, and annotated sources that we judge to be accurate, interesting, clearly written, and aimed at non-specialists, including books, articles and essays, websites, and a few items specifically for college teachers (such as syllabi). Pages of the website focus on such topics as how the climate works / how it changes; what's happening / what might happen; natural ecosystems; agriculture; impacts on people; responses from ethics, art, literature; communication; daily life; policy; energy; and-pulling all the pieces together-the big picture. We have begun working on a new series of very short videos that can be

  5. Climate Change and Intertidal Wetlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pauline M. Ross

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Intertidal wetlands are recognised for the provision of a range of valued ecosystem services. The two major categories of intertidal wetlands discussed in this contribution are saltmarshes and mangrove forests. Intertidal wetlands are under threat from a range of anthropogenic causes, some site-specific, others acting globally. Globally acting factors include climate change and its driving cause—the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. One direct consequence of climate change will be global sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and, in the longer term, the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The relative sea level rise experienced at any one locality will be affected by a range of factors, as will the response of intertidal wetlands to the change in sea level. If relative sea level is rising and sedimentation within intertidal wetlands does not keep pace, then there will be loss of intertidal wetlands from the seaward edge, with survival of the ecosystems only possible if they can retreat inland. When retreat is not possible, the wetland area will decline in response to the “squeeze” experienced. Any changes to intertidal wetland vegetation, as a consequence of climate change, will have flow on effects to biota, while changes to biota will affect intertidal vegetation. Wetland biota may respond to climate change by shifting in distribution and abundance landward, evolving or becoming extinct. In addition, impacts from ocean acidification and warming are predicted to affect the fertilisation, larval development, growth and survival of intertidal wetland biota including macroinvertebrates, such as molluscs and crabs, and vertebrates such as fish and potentially birds. The capacity of organisms to move and adapt will depend on their life history characteristics, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, inheritability of adaptive characteristics, and the predicted rates of environmental change.

  6. Climate change and intertidal wetlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Pauline M; Adam, Paul

    2013-03-19

    Intertidal wetlands are recognised for the provision of a range of valued ecosystem services. The two major categories of intertidal wetlands discussed in this contribution are saltmarshes and mangrove forests. Intertidal wetlands are under threat from a range of anthropogenic causes, some site-specific, others acting globally. Globally acting factors include climate change and its driving cause-the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. One direct consequence of climate change will be global sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and, in the longer term, the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The relative sea level rise experienced at any one locality will be affected by a range of factors, as will the response of intertidal wetlands to the change in sea level. If relative sea level is rising and sedimentation within intertidal wetlands does not keep pace, then there will be loss of intertidal wetlands from the seaward edge, with survival of the ecosystems only possible if they can retreat inland. When retreat is not possible, the wetland area will decline in response to the "squeeze" experienced. Any changes to intertidal wetland vegetation, as a consequence of climate change, will have flow on effects to biota, while changes to biota will affect intertidal vegetation. Wetland biota may respond to climate change by shifting in distribution and abundance landward, evolving or becoming extinct. In addition, impacts from ocean acidification and warming are predicted to affect the fertilisation, larval development, growth and survival of intertidal wetland biota including macroinvertebrates, such as molluscs and crabs, and vertebrates such as fish and potentially birds. The capacity of organisms to move and adapt will depend on their life history characteristics, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, inheritability of adaptive characteristics, and the predicted rates of environmental change.

  7. Tropical cyclones and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andre, J.C.; Royer, J.F.; Chauvin, F.

    2008-01-01

    Results from observations and modelling studies, a number of which having been used to support the conclusions of the IPCC fourth assessment report, are presented. For the past and present-day (since 1970) periods, the increase of strong cyclonic activity over the North Atlantic Ocean appears to be in good correlation with increasing temperature of the ocean surface. For regions where observational data are of lesser quality, the increasing trend is less clear. In fact, assessing long-term changes is made difficult due to both the multi-decennial natural variability and the lesser coverage of observations before satellites were made available. Indirect observational data, such as those derived from quantitative estimations of damage caused by tropical cyclones, suffer from many artefacts and do not allow the resolving of the issue either. For the future, only numerical three-dimensional climate models can be used. They nevertheless run presently with too-large grid-sizes, so that their results are still not converging. Various simulations lead indeed to different results, and it is very often difficult to find the physical reasons for these differences. One concludes by indicating some ways through which numerical simulations could be improved, leading to a decrease of uncertainties affecting the prediction of cyclonic activity over the next decades. (authors)

  8. Ozone, air quality and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Noije, T.

    2008-01-01

    Changes in climate due to increased greenhouse gas emissions differ per region. Regional climate changes can also be caused by regional changes in air quality, though. On the other hand, global and regional changes in climate also lead to changes in air quality without any changes in sources of pollution. This article discusses the various aspects of the interaction between air quality and climate change with extra focus on the role of ozone. [mk] [nl

  9. Plant community responses to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kongstad, J.

    2012-07-01

    Climate change is expected to affect terrestrial ecosystems across the globe with increased atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration, higher temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. These environmental factors are drivers of many important ecosystem processes, and changes in ecosystem function are therefore expected in the future. The aim of this PhD-thesis was to examine the effects of climate change on aboveground plant growth, plant composition and plant phenology in Danish heathland ecosystems. Two sites were investigated in large-scale field experiments: 1) the CLIMAITE site, 'Brandbjerg' and 2) the INCREASE site at Mols. Field manipulations lasted years and included: Warming, summer drought and (CLIMAITE only) elevated CO{sub 2} concentrations. The treatments were applied individually and in all possible combinations. Further, at Brandbjerg, but outside the treatment plots, a study was performed on the effects nitrogen and phosphorus addition on phenology, chemistry and growth of the dominant grass Deschampsia flexuosa (Wavy Hairgrass). In general, the aboveground vegetation responded less than expected to changing climatic conditions; even though Calluna vulgaris (Heather) increased in biomass over the study period, the biomass was not affected by the manipulations, indicating that C. vulgaris, has a strong resistance to changes in climate. Also, the grass biomass (primarily D. flexuosa) was not affected and was relatively constant over the period. I argue that the resilience of D. flexuosa towards the climatic treatments came from the plants ability to let the tissue die back, and then quickly recover once conditions again became favourable. That gave the plant a high resilience to changes in climatic factors. Calluna vulgaris, on the other hand, showed a resistance to changes by constantly maintaining the growth during the whole season, probably because of its evergreen status. Together, the two different strategies made the heathland

  10. SEA Screening of voluntary Climate Change Plans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kørnøv, Lone; Wejs, Anja

    2013-01-01

    that discretionary judgement takes place and will impact on the screening decision. This article examines the results of discretion involved in screening of climate change plans (CCPs) in a Danish context. These years voluntary CCPs are developed as a response to the global and local emergence of both mitigation...... rests upon a docu- mentary study of Danish CCPs, interviews with a lawyer and ministerial key person and informal discussions between researchers, practitioners and lawyers on whether climate change plans are covered by SEA legislation and underlying reasons for the present practice. Based on a critical...... and adap- tation, and the voluntary commitment by the local authorities is an indication of an emerging norm of climate change as an important issue. This article takes its point of departure in the observation that SEA is not undertaken for these voluntary CCPs. The critical analysis of this phenomenon...

  11. Technical progress and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ausubel, J.H.

    1995-01-01

    The global warming debate has neglected and thus underestimated the importance of technical change in considering reduction in greenhouse gases and adaptation to climate change. Relevant quantitative cases of long-run technical change during the past 100 years are presented in computing, communications, transport, energy, and agriculture. A noteworthy technological trajectory is that of decarbonization, or decreasing carbon intensity of primary energy. If human societies have not yet reached the end of the history of technology, the cost structure for mitigation and adaptation changes could be cheap. (Author)

  12. Climate change and the Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Anderson, Jamie; Anderson, Michael L.; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel; Maurer, Edwin P.

    2016-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages) by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes are much less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. However, the same projections agree that precipitation will be more intense when storms do arrive, even as more dry days will separate storms. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporative demands and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Sea level rise (SLR) during the 20th century was about 22cm, and is projected to increase by at least 3-fold this century. SLR together with land subsidence threatens the Delta with greater vulnerabilities to inundation and salinity intrusion. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include SLR, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflows, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict, except that native species will fare worse than invaders. Successful

  13. Vulnerability of Ukrainian Forests to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anatoly Shvidenko

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Ukraine is a country of the Mid-Latitude ecotone—a transition zone between forest zone and forestless dry lands. Availability of water defines distribution of the country’s forests and decreases their productivity towards the south. Climate change generates a particular threat for Ukrainian forests and stability of agroforestry landscapes. This paper considers the impacts of expected climate change on vulnerability of Ukrainian forests using ensembles of global and regional climatic models (RCM based on Scenarios B1, A2, A1B of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, and a “dry and warm” scenario A1B+T−P (increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation. The spatially explicit assessment was provided by RCM for the WMO standard period (1961–1990, “recent” (1991–2010 and three future periods: 2011–2030, 2031–2050 and 2081–2100. Forest-climate model by Vorobjov and model of amplitude of flora’s tolerance to climate change by Didukh, as well as a number of specialized climatic indicators, were used in the assessment. Different approaches lead to rather consistent conclusions. Water stress is the major limitation factor of distribution and resilience of flatland Ukrainian forests. Within Scenario A1B, the area with unsuitable growth conditions for major forest forming species will substantially increase by end of the century occupying major part of Ukraine. Scenario A1B+T−P projects even a more dramatic decline of the country’s forests. It is expected that the boundary of conditions that are favorable for forests will shift to north and northwest, and forests of the xeric belt will be the most vulnerable. Consistent policies of adaptation and mitigation might reduce climate-induced risks for Ukrainian forests.

  14. Quantitative approaches in climate change ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brown, Christopher J.; Schoeman, David S.; Sydeman, William J.

    2011-01-01

    Contemporary impacts of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems are increasingly being recognized. Documenting the extent of these impacts requires quantitative tools for analyses of ecological observations to distinguish climate impacts in noisy data and to understand interactions between...... climate variability and other drivers of change. To assist the development of reliable statistical approaches, we review the marine climate change literature and provide suggestions for quantitative approaches in climate change ecology. We compiled 267 peer‐reviewed articles that examined relationships...

  15. Science Matters Podcast: Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Listen to a podcast with Dr. Andy Miller, the Associate Director for Climate for the Agency's Air, Climate, and Energy Research Program, as he answers questions about climate change research, or read some of the highlights from the conversation here.

  16. The European Climate Change Programme. EU Action against Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    The European Union has long been committed to international efforts to tackle climate change and felt the duty to set an example through robust policy-making at home. At European level a comprehensive package of policy measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has been initiated through the European Climate Change Programme (ECCP). Each of the 25 EU Member States has also put in place its own domestic actions that build on the ECCP measures or complement them. The European Commission established the ECCP in 2000 to help identify the most environmentally effective and most cost-effective policies and measures that can be taken at European level to cut greenhouse gas emissions. The immediate goal is to help ensure that the EU meets its target for reducing emissions under the Kyoto Protocol. This requires the 15 countries that were EU members before 2004 to cut their combined emissions of greenhouse gases to 8% below the 1990 level by 2012

  17. Improving leadership on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chandani, Achala

    2011-03-15

    The upcoming UN conference on climate change in Durban, South Africa throws a spotlight on African climate policy. As part of a knowledge-sharing initiative in Southern Africa, we assessed parliamentarians' needs for more information on climate threats and responses, and ways to improve their capabilities as key stakeholders influencing national and global decisionmaking. Funded by the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office and partnered with the Association of European Parliamentarians with Africa (AWEPA), IIED worked with parliamentarians in the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) — Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland — through interviews, literature surveys, field trips and workshops. Similar studies in Malawi and Scotland also fed into this project.

  18. Climate change and energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hengeveld, H.G.

    1991-01-01

    Climate and weather events affect energy demand in most economic sectors. Linear relationships exist between consumption and heating degree days, and peak electricity demand increases significantly during heat waves. The relative magnitudes of demand changes for a two times carbon dioxide concentration scenario are tabulated, illustrating heating degree days and cooling degree days for 5 Prairie locations. Irrigation, water management, crop seeding and harvesting and weed control are examples of climate-dependent agricultural activities involving significant energy use. The variability of summer season liquid fuel use in the agricultural sector in the Prairie provinces from 1984-1989 shows a relationship between agricultural energy use and regional climate fluctuations. 4 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

  19. The ACPI Climate Change Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dai, A.; Washington, W.M.; Meehl, G.A.; Bettge, T.W.; Strand, W.G.

    2004-01-01

    The Parallel Climate Model (PCM) has been used in the Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative (ACPI) Program to simulate the global climate response to projected CO2, sulfate, and other greenhouse gas forcing under a business-as-usual emissions scenario during the 21st century. In these runs, the oceans were initialized to 1995 conditions by a group from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and other institutions. An ensemble of three model runs was then carried out to the year 2099 using the projected forcing. Atmospheric data from these runs were saved at 6-hourly intervals (hourly for certain critical fields) to support the ACPI objective of accurately modeling hydrological cycles over the western U.S. It is shown that the initialization to 1995 conditions partly removes the un-forced oceanic temperature and salinity drifts that occurred in the standard 20th century integration. The ACPI runs show a global surface temperature increase of 3-8C over northern high-latitudes by the end of the 21st century, and 1-2C over the oceans. This is generally within ±0.1C of model runs without the 1995 ocean initialization. The exception is in the Antarctic circumpolar ocean where surface air temperature is cooler in the ACPI run; however the ensemble scatter is large in this region. Although the difference in climate at the end of the 21st century is minimal between the ACPI runs and traditionally spun up runs, it might be larger for CGCMs with higher climate sensitivity or larger ocean drifts. Our results suggest that the effect of small errors in the oceans (such as those associated with climate drifts) on CGCM-simulated climate changes for the next 50-100 years may be negligible

  20. Climate challenge 2012: growth and climate change - Socio-economical impacts of climate change. Conference proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orange-Louboutin, Mylene; Robinet, Olivier; Delalande, Daniel; Reysset, Bertrand; De Perthuis, Christian; Le Treut, Herve; Cottenceau, Jean-Baptiste; Ayong, Alain; Daubaire, Aurelien; Gaudin, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    The contributions of this conference session proposed comments and discussion on the relationship between climate change and 'green' growth, on the status of scientific knowledge on climate change (from global to local), on the way to perform carbon print assessment and to decide which actions to implement, on the costs and opportunity of impacts of climate change, on the economy of adaptation, on the benefits and costs of the adaptation policy, and on impacts of climate change on employment in quantitative terms and in terms of profession types

  1. Landcare and climate change: a regional perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huthwaite, Peter

    2007-01-01

    wide range of decisions, some urgent, some gradually unfolding. This very slow pace of change and the varying season cycles will make planning for change very difficult and more stressful. Experience to date indicates that discussion about adaptation to climate change often brings up issues of emissions, blame and scepticism which serve to distract the adaptation debate. Communications about adaptation are urgently needed to move the conversation towards strategic planning for a less reliable climate future, regardless of how the greenhouse debate develops

  2. Climate changes over the past millennium: Relationships with Mediterranean climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mann, M.E.

    2006-01-01

    Evidence is reviewed for climate change and its causes over the interval spanning roughly the past millennium. Particular emphasis is placed on patterns of climate change influencing Mediterranean climates of the Northern Hemisphere. The evidence is taken from studies using high-resolution climate proxy data sources, and climate modeling simulations. The available evidence suggests that forced changes in dynamical modes of variability including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have played a key role in the patterns of climate variability in Mediterranean regions over the past millennium

  3. Asia's changing role in global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqi, Toufiq A

    2008-10-01

    Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.

  4. Scariest thing about climate change: climate flips

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beaulieu, P.

    1997-01-01

    The idea that an increase in greenhouse gases will cause the global average temperature to rise slowly over the next decades was discussed. Studies of ice core from Greenland have shown that in the past climate shifts seem to have happened quickly. Some scientists fear that increasingly frequent extreme weather events could be a sign that the climate system is nearing its threshold and a rapid climate flip may be just ahead. In the case of global climatic system, the danger is that stresses from greenhouse gas effects are pushing the present system over the threshold where it must flip into a new warmer system that will be stable, but different from the climate on which our agriculture, economy, settlements and lives depend. 4 refs

  5. Relationship between viticultural climatic indices and grape maturity in Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarvis, C.; Barlow, E.; Darbyshire, R.; Eckard, R.; Goodwin, I.

    2017-10-01

    Historical temperature data and maturity records were analyzed for 45 vineyard blocks in 15 winegrowing regions across Australia in order to evaluate the suitability of common viticultural indices to estimate date of grape maturity. Five temperature-based viticultural indices (mean January temperature, mean growing season temperature, growing degree days, biologically effective degree days, Huglin Index) along with four springtime temperature indices (mean and maximum temperature summations for September, October, and November; growing degree days and biologically effective degree days modified to include September) were compared to maturity data in order to investigate index relationship to observed maturity timing. Daily heat summations for the months of September, October, and November showed the best correlation to day of year of maturity, suggesting that springtime temperatures are important relative to the timing of grape maturity. Mean January temperature, a commonly used index, had the poorest correlation with day of year of maturity of all the indices included in this study. Indices that included the month of April had poorer correlation than indices that shifted the months included in the growing season to be from September to March inclusive. Calculated index values for the past 30 years for every region included in this study showed increasing temporal trends to various degrees, indicating that all regions studied are experiencing warming temperatures during the growing season. These results emphasize the need to reevaluate viticultural indices in the context of a changing climate.

  6. Climate change science - beyond IPCC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicholls, N.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: The main conclusions of the IPCC Working Group I assessment of the physical science of climate change, from the Fourth IPCC Assessment, will be presented, along with the evidence supporting these conclusions. These conclusions include: Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years. The global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land use change, while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture; The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has improved since the Third Assessment Report, leading to very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] Wm-2; Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level; At continental, regional and ocean basin scales, numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed. These include changes in arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones. Palaeo-climatic information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last half-century is unusual in at least the previous 1,300 years; Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations; Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental

  7. All that glitters is not gold: A projected distribution of the endemic Indian Golden Gecko Calodactylodes aureus (Reptilia: Squamata: Gekkonidae indicates a major range shrinkage due to future climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aditya Srinivasulu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has a perceived threat on biodiversity due to its effect on species range.  Species with narrow ranges and highly specific climatic and habitat requirements are at higher risk.  To understand the influence of climate change on the Indian endemic gekkonid, the Indian Golden Gecko Calodactylodes aureus (Beddome, 1870 we model the present and future predicted distribution (2050 and 2070 under the CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using MaxEnt under the HadGEM3-ES Model.  Our analysis revealed the negative impact of climate change on the Indian Golden Gecko with a decrease in the amount of climatically suitable areas in the future, and an almost total range shrinkage by 2070.  Despite its wide distribution in the eastern Deccan Peninsula, according to our predictions, the species is threatened by a shrinkage in the future range due to climate change

  8. Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, T. R.; Townshend, I.; Byrne, J. M.; McDaniel, S. A.

    2013-12-01

    While there is a growing recognition of the impact that climate change may have on human development, there has been a shift in focus from an impacts-led assessment approach towards a vulnerability-led assessment approach. This research operationalizes the IPCC's definition of vulnerability in a sub-national assessment to understand how different factors that shape vulnerability to climate change vary spatially across rural Nicaragua. The research utilizes the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations' (FAO UN) CropWat model to evaluate how the annual yield of two of Nicaragua's staple crops may change under projected changes in temperature and precipitation. This analysis of agricultural sensitivity under exposure to climate change is then overlain with an indicator-based assessment of adaptive capacity in rural Nicaraguan farming households. Adaptive capacity was evaluated using household survey data from the 2001 National Household Survey on Living Standards Measurement, which was provided to us by the FAO UN. The result is a map representing current vulnerability to future climate change, and can serve as a basis for targeting policy interventions in rural Nicaragua.

  9. Modeling the effect of climate change on the indoor climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schijndel, van A.W.M.; Schellen, H.L.

    2010-01-01

    Within the new EU project ‘Climate for Culture’ researchers are investigating climate change impacts on UNESCO World Heritage Sites. Simulation results are expected to give information on the possible impact of climate change on the built cultural heritage and its indoor environment. This paper

  10. Climate project screening tool: an aid for climate change adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toni Lyn Morelli; Sharon Yeh; Nikola M. Smith; Mary Beth Hennessy; Constance I. Millar

    2012-01-01

    To address the impacts of climate change, land managers need techniques for incorporating adaptation into ongoing or impending projects. We present a new tool, the Climate Project Screening Tool (CPST), for integrating climate change considerations into project planning as well as for developing concrete adaptation options for land managers. We designed CPST as part of...

  11. Astronomical theory of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berger, A.; Loutre, M.F. [Universite Catholique de Louvain (UCL), Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium). Inst. d' Astronomie et de Geophysique G. Lemaitre

    2004-12-01

    The astronomical theory of paleo-climates aims to explain the climatic variations occurring with quasi-periodicities lying between tens and hundreds of thousands of years. The origin of these quasi-cycles lies in the astronomically driven changes in the latitudinal and seasonal distributions of the energy that the Earth receives from the Sun. These changes are then amplified by the feedback mechanisms which characterize the natural behaviour of the climate system like those involving the albedo-, the water vapor-, and the vegetation- temperature relationships. Climate models of different complexities are used to explain the chain of processes which finally link the long-term variations of three astronomical parameters to the long-term climatic variations at time scale of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. In particular, sensitivity analysis to the astronomically driven insolation changes and to the CO{sub 2} atmospheric concentrations have been performed with the 2-dimension climate model of Louvain-la-Neuve. It could be shown that this model simulates more or less correctly the entrance into glaciation around 2.75 million year (Myr) BP (before present), the late Pliocene-early Pleistocene 41-kyr (thousand years) cycle, the emergence of the 100-kyr cycle around 850 kyr BP and the glacial-interglacial cycles of the last 600 kyr. During the Late Pliocene (in an ice-free - warm world) ice sheets can only develop during times of sufficiently low summer insolation. This occurs during large eccentricity times when climatic precession and obliquity combine to obtain such low values, leading to the 41-kyr period between 3 and 1 million years BP. On the contrary in a glacial world, ice sheets persist most of the time except when insolation is very high in polar latitudes, requiring large eccentricity again, but leading this time to interglacial and finally to the 100-kyr period of the last 1 Myr. Using CO{sub 2} scenarios, it has been shown that stage 11 and stage 1

  12. Making sense of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    Climate change has always occurred naturally but at a pace to which the earth has adapted well. Now, due to human activities like energy utilization and waste disposal, the earth is heating up much faster than earlier. Ecosystems, water resources, food sources, health, and human settlements are getting adversely affected. Floods and droughts are increasing, glaciers are melting, and disease is spreading. The problem is serious and it is time to act. Global consensus has been agreements; mitigation initiatives have been undertaken; hopes are up. The aim of this book is to raise the awareness of secondary school students about climate change and its impacts while enhancing their understanding of global responses. It includes a chapter specific to Indian conditions. Lucidly written and illustrated with anecdotes and visuals, this handbook will catalyse young minds into greater awareness, concern, and, hopefully, remedial action on this global threat

  13. Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation

    CERN Document Server

    Seiner, John; Suzuki, Toshio; Lackner, Maximilian

    2012-01-01

    There is a mounting consensus that human behavior is changing the global climate and its consequence could be catastrophic. Reducing the 24 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions from stationary and mobile sources is a gigantic task involving both technological challenges and monumental financial and societal costs. The pursuit of sustainable energy resources, environment, and economy has become a complex issue of global scale that affects the daily life of every citizen of the world. The present mitigation activities range from energy conservation, carbon-neutral energy conversions, carbon advanced combustion process that produce no greenhouse gases and that enable carbon capture and sequestion, to other advanced technologies. From its causes and impacts to its solutions, the issues surrounding climate change involve multidisciplinary science and technology. This handbook will provide a single source of this information. The book will be divided into the following sections: Scientific Evidence of Cl...

  14. Hurricane Katrina and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrara, Vincenzo

    2005-01-01

    Serious and widely reported scientific analyses and assessments have called attention to climate changes and to the additional risks the world now faces. Through science has not yet provided proof positive of a connection between the increased intensity of extreme weather events and climate change, there can be no valid reason for failing to hedge the risk with preventive action. The catastrophe that struck New Orleans had can been predicted since the 1990s. The 2050 Coast Plan for reducing the vulnerability of the Louisiana coast and preventing hurricane disasters had been approved by the local authorities but not the federal government. Partly because of its cost, it was never carried into effect [it

  15. Climate change and forest resilience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MacQueen, Duncan; Vermeulen, Sonja

    2006-10-15

    Significant global climate change is inevitable. Tree species have a limited capacity to tolerate climate change or migrate through natural or artificial means. We do not know enough about the comparative resilience of forest-based, agricultural, marine or fresh water ecosystems. But it is clear that biodiverse forest ecosystems are under threat. And the threat extends beyond forests themselves. An estimated 60 million indigenous people are heavily dependent on the world's rainforests. Some 350 million people live in or close to dense forests and rely on them for subsistence or income. A further 1.2 billion people in developing countries depend on trees on farm to generate food or cash.

  16. Climatic change and security stakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ambrosi, Ph.; Hallegatte, St.

    2006-01-01

    This paper explores the relationships between climate change and security. Potential threats from climate change, as a unique source of stress or together with other factors, to human security are first examined. Some of the most explicit examples illustrate this section: food security, water availability, vulnerability to extreme events and vulnerability of small islands States and coastal zones. By questioning the basic needs of some populations or at least aggravating their precariousness, such risks to human security could also raise global security concerns, which we examine in turn, along four directions: rural exodus with an impoverishment of displaced populations, local conflicts for the use of natural resources, diplomatic tensions and international conflicts, and propagation to initially-unaffected regions through migratory flows. (authors)

  17. Climate change in China and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luo Y.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Since the first assessment report (FAR of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC in 1990, the international scientific community has made substantial progresses in climate change sciences. Changes in components of climate system, including the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, indicate that global warming is unequivocal. Instrumental records demonstrate that the global mean temperature has a significant increasing trend during the 20th century and in the latest 50 years the warming become faster. In the meantime, the global sea level has a strong increasing trend, as well as the snow coverage of Northern Hemisphere showed an obvious downward trend. Moreover, the global warming plays a key role in significantly affecting the climate system and social-economy on both global and regional scales, such as sea level rise, melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets, desertification, deforestation, increase of weather extremes (typhoon, hurricane and rainstorm and so on. The state of the art understanding of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 was most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in the concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Climate change issues, as a grave challenge to the sustainable development of the human society, have received ever greater attention from the international community. Deeply cognizant of the complexity and extensive influence of these issues and fully aware of the arduousness and urgency of the task of addressing climate change, the Chinese government is determined to address climate change in the process of pursuing sustainable development. The facts of climate change in China and its impacts, and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change are introduced in this paper.

  18. Teaching Climate Change Through Music

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, P. S.

    2007-12-01

    During 2006, Peter Weiss aka "The Singing Scientist" performed many music assemblies for elementary schools (K-5) in Santa Cruz County, California, USA. These assemblies were an opportunity for him to mix a discussion of climate change with rock n' roll. In one song called "Greenhouse Glasses", Peter and his band the "Earth Rangers" wear over-sized clown glasses with "molecules" hanging off them (made with Styrofoam balls and pipe cleaners). Each molecule is the real molecular structure of a greenhouse gas, and the song explains how when the wearer of these glasses looks up in the sky, he/she can see the "greenhouse gases floating by." "I've seen more of them this year than the last / 'Cuz fossil fuels are burning fast / I wish everyone could see through these frames / Then maybe we could prevent climate change" Students sing, dance and get a visual picture of something that is invisible, yet is part of a very real problem. This performance description is used as an example of an educational style that can reach a wide audience and provide a framework for the audience as learners to assimilate future information on climate change. The hypothesis is that complex socio-environmental issues like climate change that must be taught in order to achieve sustainability are best done so through alternative mediums like music. Students develop awareness which leads to knowledge about chemistry, physics, and biology. These kinds of experiences which connect science learning to fun activities and community building are seriously lacking in primary and secondary schools and are a big reason why science illiteracy is a current social problem. Science education is also paired with community awareness (including the local plant/animal community) and cooperation. The Singing Scientist attempts to create a culture where it is cool to care about the environment. Students end up gardening in school gardens together and think about their "ecological footprint".

  19. Energy Revolution Against Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potocnik, V.

    2007-01-01

    Energy revolution is taking place in the world with objective to mitigate consequences of evident climate change, caused mostly by emissions of the greenhouse gases from combustion of fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas). The principal elements of the energy revolution are decrease in energy consumption by increase in energy efficiency and substitution of fossil fuels by renewable energies, supported by 'clean' fossil fuels and nuclear energy. (author)

  20. Climate Change and Individual Duties

    OpenAIRE

    Augustin Fragnière

    2016-01-01

    Tackling climate change has often been considered the responsibility of national governments. But do individuals also have a duty to act in the face of this problem? In particular do they have a duty to adopt a greener lifestyle or to press their government to act? This review critically examines the arguments provided for and against such duties in the relevant philosophic literature. It first discusses the problem of causal inefficacy—namely the fact that individual greenhouse gas emissions...

  1. Climate Change and Human Health

    OpenAIRE

    Semenza, Jan C.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change science points to an increase in sea surface temperature, increases in the severity of extreme weather events, declining air quality, and destabilizing natural systems due to increases in greenhouse gas emissions. The direct and indirect health results of such a global imbalance include excessive heat-related illnesses, vector- and waterborne diseases, increased exposure to environmental toxins, exacerbation of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases due to declining air qualit...

  2. The climate change problem and its consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khakimov, F.Kh.; Mirzokhonova, S.O.; Mirzokhonava, N.A.

    2005-01-01

    The problem of climate change is investigated in the current work in Tajikistan. It shows that the changes of the republic thermal mode is connected with climate global changes. The forecast of climate change on 2050 on various models is given

  3. The climate change problem and its consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khakimov, F.Kh.; Mirzokhonova, S.O.; Mirzokhonova, N.A.

    2005-01-01

    The problem of climate change is investigated in the current work in Tajikistan. It shows that the changes of the republic thermal mode is connected with climate global changes. The forecast of climate change on 2050 on various models are given

  4. Capturing Tweets on Climate Change: What is the role of Twitter in Climate Change Communication?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngo, A. M.; McNeal, K.; Luginbuhl, S.; Enteen, J.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is a major environmental issue that is often discussed throughout the world using social media outlets such as Twitter. This research followed and collected tweets about climate change as they related to two events: (i) the June 18, 2015 release of the Encyclical by Pope Francis which included content about climate change and (ii) the upcoming COP21 conference, a United Nations climate change conference, to be held on Dec. 7-8, 2015 in Paris. Using a Twitter account and Ncapture we were able to collect tens of thousands of climate change related tweets that were then loaded into a program called Nvivo which stored the tweets and associated publically available user information. We followed a few major hashtags such as COP21, UNFCCC, @climate, and the Pope. We examined twitter users, the information sources, locations, number of re-tweets, and frequency of tweets as well as the category of the tweet in regard to positive, negative, and neutral positions about climate. Frequency analysis of tweets over a 10 day period of the Encyclical event showed that ~200 tweets per day were made prior to the event, with ~1000 made on the day of the event, and ~100 per day following the event. For the COP21 event, activity ranged from 2000-3000 tweets per day. For the Encyclical event, an analysis of 1100 tweets on the day of release indicated that 47% of the tweets had a positive perspective about climate change, 50% were neutral, 1% negative, and 2% were unclear. For the COP21 event, an analysis of 342 tweets randomly sampled from 31,721 tweets, showed that 53% of the tweets had a positive perspective about climate change, 12% were neutral, 13% negative, and 22% were unclear. Differences in the frequency and perspectives of tweets were likely due to the nature of the events, one a long-term and recurring international event and the other a single international religious-oriented event. We tabulated the top 10 tweets about climate change as they relate to these two

  5. Global Wildfire Forecasts Using Large Scale Climate Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Huizhong; Tao, Shu

    2016-04-01

    Using weather readings, fire early warning can provided forecast 4-6 hour in advance to minimize fire loss. The benefit would be dramatically enhanced if relatively accurate long-term projection can be also provided. Here we present a novel method for predicting global fire season severity (FSS) at least three months in advance using multiple large-scale climate indices (CIs). The predictive ability is proven effective for various geographic locations and resolution. Globally, as well as in most continents, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant driving force controlling interannual FSS variability, whereas other CIs also play indispensable roles. We found that a moderate El Niño event is responsible for 465 (272-658 as interquartile range) Tg carbon release and an annual increase of 29,500 (24,500-34,800) deaths from inhalation exposure to air pollutants. Southeast Asia accounts for half of the deaths. Both intercorrelation and interaction of WPs and CIs are revealed, suggesting possible climate-induced modification of fire responses to weather conditions. Our models can benefit fire management in response to climate change.

  6. Climate change mitigation in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mackenzie, G A; Turkson, J K; Davidson, O R [eds.

    1998-10-01

    The UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (UCCEE) in conjunction with the Southern Centre for Energy and Environment (SCEE) hosted a conference on `Climate Change Mitigation in Africa` between 18 and 20 May. The Conference set out to address the following main objectives: to present to a wider audience the results of UNEP/GEF and related country studies; to present results of regional mitigation analysis; exchange of information with similar projects in the region; to expose countries to conceptual and methodological issues related to climate change mitigation; to provide input to national development using climate change related objectives. This volume contains reports of the presentations and discussions, which took place at the conference at Victoria Falls between 18 and 20 May 1998. Representatives of 11 country teams made presentations and in addition two sub-regions were discussed: the Maghreb region and SADC. The conference was attended by a total of 63 people, representing 22 African countries as well as international organisations. (EG)

  7. Climate change mitigation in Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mackenzie, G.A.; Turkson, J.K.; Davidson, O.R.

    1998-10-01

    The UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (UCCEE) in conjunction with the Southern Centre for Energy and Environment (SCEE) hosted a conference on 'Climate Change Mitigation in Africa' between 18 and 20 May. The Conference set out to address the following main objectives: to present to a wider audience the results of UNEP/GEF and related country studies; to present results of regional mitigation analysis; exchange of information with similar projects in the region; to expose countries to conceptual and methodological issues related to climate change mitigation; to provide input to national development using climate change related objectives. This volume contains reports of the presentations and discussions, which took place at the conference at Victoria Falls between 18 and 20 May 1998. Representatives of 11 country teams made presentations and in addition two sub-regions were discussed: the Maghreb region and SADC. The conference was attended by a total of 63 people, representing 22 African countries as well as international organisations. (EG)

  8. Climate Change: a Theoretical Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Ishaq-ur Rahman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate Change has been undoubtedly the most illustrious environmental issue since late 20th century. But neither the discourse merely emerged during that time, nor it was problematized in the same way since its onset. History of Climate Change discourse reveals that from a purely scientific concern it has turned into a public agenda that is nowadays more inclined to be development problem. Transformations have brought about a complete new paradigm every time. This article presents a theoretical analysis of the Climate Change discourse and to do so it captured the underlying philosophy of the issue using Thomas Kuhn’s well-known thesis of ‘paradigm shift’. In particular it discusses about the crisis that lead the issue towards transformations; explores key perspectives around the crisis thus representation of the issue in the environmental discourse over the time. While this paper establishes that with the beginning of the 21st century, the discourse entered into a new paradigm and will reach to a critical point by the end of 2012, it finally postulates some measures that the discourse might integrate with the existing to advance beyond that point.

  9. Accounting for Climate Change: Introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lieberman, Daniel; Jonas, Matthias; Winiwarter, Wilfried; Nahorski, Zbigniew; Nilsson, Sten

    2007-01-01

    The assessment of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted to and removed from the atmosphere is high on both political and scientific agendas internationally. As increasing international concern and cooperation aim at policy-oriented solutions to the climate change problem, several issues have begun to arise regarding verification and compliance under both proposed and legislated schemes meant to reduce the human-induced global climate impact. The approaches to addressing uncertainty introduced in this article attempt to improve national inventories or to provide a basis for the standardization of inventory estimates to enable comparison of emissions and emission changes across countries. Authors of the accompanying articles use detailed uncertainty analyses to enforce the current structure of the emission trading system and attempt to internalize high levels of uncertainty by tailoring the emissions trading market rules. Assessment of uncertainty can help improve inventories and manage risk. Through recognizing the importance of, identifying and quantifying uncertainties, great strides can be made in the process of Accounting for Climate Change

  10. Changes in the Perceived Risk of Climate Change: Evidence from Sudden Climatic Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

    2009-12-01

    In the course of the past two decades the threat of anthropogenic climate change has moved from a scientific concern of relative obscurity to become one of the largest environmental and public goods problems in history. During this period public understanding of the risk of climate change has shifted from negligible to quite large. In this paper I propose a means of quantifying this change by examining how sudden events supporting the theory of anthropogenic climate change have affected carbon intensive companies' stock prices. Using CAPM event study methodology for companies in several carbon-intensive industries, I find strong evidence that markets have been reacting to changes in the scientific evidence for climate change for some time. Specifically, the change in magnitude of response over time seems to indicate that investors believed climate change was a potentially serious risk to corporate profits as early as the mid 1990s. Moreover, market reaction dependence on event type indicates that investors are differentiating between different advances in the scientific knowledge. Announcements by NASA GISS that the previous year was a “record hot year” for the globe are associated with negative excess returns, while news of ice shelf collapses are associated with strong positive excess returns. These results imply that investors are aware of how different aspects of climate change will affect carbon intensive companies, specifically in terms of the link between warming in general and polar ice cover. This implies that policy choices based on observable public opinion have lagged actual private concern over climate change's potential threat.

  11. Forestry Canada's perspectives on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, J.P.; Carlson, L.W.

    1990-01-01

    The impacts of climatic change on Canada's forestry sector are discussed, in the context of major research priorities relating to forecasting climate, forecasting forest responses, monitoring changes, mitigating effects, and understanding the forest carbon balance. There are five major concerns that affect policy decisions: effects of climatic change on forests; adaptation to climate change; impacts of changing crops on forestry; changing forestry values in changing sociological settings; and international implications of the changing climate. A scientific program to respond to climate change issues is required, and should include the following concentrations of research effort. Planning requires projections of likely future climates, and efforts should concern relations between pre-historic climates and forest ecosystems and integrating data into predictive models. Forecasting of response of forests should include tree physiology, factors controlling reforestation, variations in forest trees, effects of pollutants, damage to forests, and forest decline

  12. Climate change induced by Southern Hemisphere desertification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ye; Yan, Xiaodong

    2017-12-01

    Some 10-20% of global dry-lands are already degraded, and the ongoing desertification threatens the world's poorest populations. Studies on desertification effects are essential for humans to adapt to the environmental challenges posed by desertification. Given the importance of the much larger southern ocean to the global climate and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate changes in phase with those in the north, the biogeophysical effects of the SH desertification on climate are assessed using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, MPM-2. This analysis focuses on differences in climate among the averages of simulations with desert expansion in different latitude bands by year 2000. The localized desertification causes significant global changes in temperature and precipitation as well as surface albedo. On the global scale, cooling dominates the SH desertification effects. However, the biogeophysical effects are most significant in regions with desertification, and the cooling is also prominent in northern mid-latitudes. Desert expansion in 15°-30°S reveals statistically most significant cooling and increased precipitation over the forcing regions during spring. The global and regional scale responses from desertification imply the climate teleconnection and address the importance of the effects from the SH which are contingent on the location of the forcing. Our study indicates that biogeophysical mechanisms of land cover changes in the SH need to be accounted for in the assessment of land management options especially for latitude band over 15°-30°S.

  13. Exploring the Multifaceted Topic of Climate Change in Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

    2015-12-01

    As the effects of climate change become more profound, climate literacy becomes increasingly important. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) responds to this need through the publication of Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate. Both publications incorporate the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the USGCRP's Third National Climate Assessment. Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive, multidisciplinary information related to various topics. Additionally, each chapter closes with a For Further Exploration essay, which addresses specific topics that complement a chapter concept. Web Resources, which encourage additional exploration of chapter content, and Scientific Literature, from which chapter content was derived can also be found at the conclusion of each chapter. Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics, including the scientific principles that govern Earth's climate system and basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate the system. Released in fall 2015, Living With Our Changing Climate takes a more narrow approach and investigates human and ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change, the role of energy choices in affecting climate, actions humans can take through adaption, mitigation, and policy to lessen vulnerabilities, and psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial. While Living With Our Changing Climate is intended for programs looking to add a climate element into their curriculum, Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course. In a 2015 survey of California University of Pennsylvania undergraduate students using Our Changing Climate, 82% found it comfortable to read and utilized its interactive components and resources. Both ebooks illuminate the multidisciplinary aspect of climate change, providing the opportunity for a more sustainable future.

  14. Mars Recent Climate Change Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberle, Robert M.; Owen, Sandra J.

    2012-11-01

    Mars Recent Climate Change Workshop NASA/Ames Research Center May 15-17, 2012 Climate change on Mars has been a subject of great interest to planetary scientists since the 1970's when orbiting spacecraft first discovered fluvial landforms on its ancient surfaces and layered terrains in its polar regions. By far most of the attention has been directed toward understanding how "Early Mars" (i.e., Mars >~3.5 Gya) could have produced environmental conditions favorable for the flow of liquid water on its surface. Unfortunately, in spite of the considerable body of work performed on this subject, no clear consensus has emerged on the nature of the early Martian climate system because of the difficulty in distinguishing between competing ideas given the ambiguities in the available geological, mineralogical, and isotopic records. For several reasons, however, the situation is more tractable for "Recent Mars" (i.e., Mars during past 20 My or so). First, the geologic record is better preserved and evidence for climate change on this time scale has been building since the rejuvenation of the Mars Exploration Program in the late 1990's. The increasing coverage of the planet from orbit and the surface, coupled with accurate measurements of surface topography, increasing spatial resolution of imaging cameras, improved spectral resolution of infrared sensors, and the ability to probe the subsurface with radar, gamma rays, and neutron spectroscopy, has not only improved the characterization of previously known climate features such as polar layered terrains and glacier-related landforms, but has also revealed the existence of many new features related to recent climate change such as polygons, gullies, concentric crater fill, and a latitude dependent mantle. Second, the likely cause of climate change - spin axis/orbital variations - is more pronounced on Mars compared to Earth. Spin axis/orbital variations alter the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of sunlight, which can

  15. National Climate Assessment Indicators: Background, Development, & Examples

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Janetos, Anthony C.; Chen, Robert; Arndt, Deke; Kenney, Melissa A.; Abbasi, Daniel; Armstrong, Tom; Bartuska, Ann; Blair, Maria; Buizer, Jim; Dietz, Tom; Easterling, Dave; Kaye, Jack; Kolian, Michael; McGeehin, Michael; O' Connor, Robert; Pulwarty, Roger; Running, Steve; Schmalensee, Dick; Webb, Robert; Weltzin, Jake; Baptista, Sandra; Enquist, Carolyn A.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Chen, Robert; Arndt, Deke; Hatfield, Jerry; Hayes, Mark L.; Jones, K. Burce; McNutt, Chad; Meier, Wayne R.; Schwartz, Mark D.; Svoboda, Mark

    2012-02-28

    Indicators are usually thought of as measurements or calculations that represent important features of the status, trend, or performance of a system of interest (e.g. the economy, agriculture, air quality). They are often used for the most practical of reasons – one cannot measure everything important about systems of interest, so there is a practical need to identify major features that can be reported periodically and used to guide both research and decisions (NRC 2000).

  16. BUSINESS CLIMATE INDICATOR AS A PREDICTOR OF CROATIAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirjana Čižmešija

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS are one of the most frequently used tools to assess economy’s cyclical behavior. Croatia has been conducting the surveys continually since 1995. Nevertheless, there is still a research niche in the Croatian BCS framework that has not been adequately represented. The Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys suggests Business Climate Indicator (BCI as a composite leading indicator of the economy as a whole. In accordance to the EU methodology, this paper examines managers’ qualitative assessments on five important variables related to their economic environment. Using factor analysis one factor was extracted from those five variables, representing the BCI. It’s predictive properties were analyzed with regards to Croatian industrial production using Granger causality test, impulse response and variance decomposition analysis. Results strongly confirm the precedence of BCI to the changes of Croatian industrial production, validating the importance of its introduction and utilization in Croatian economic cycles analysis.

  17. Creative Change: Art, Music, and Climate Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahlberg, R. A.; Hoffman, J. S.; Maurakis, E. G.

    2017-12-01

    As part of ongoing climate science education initiatives, the Science Museum of Virginia hosted Creative Change in March 2017. The event featured multidisciplinary programming created by scientists, artists, and students reacting to and interpreting climate change and resiliency through a variety of artistic mediums and informal science education. Creative Change was developed in consideration of studies conducted at Columbia University that indicate traditional educational approaches, which rely heavily on scientific information and data literacy, fail to engage and inspire action in a majority of people. Our informal science education programming developed for Creative Change, by contrast, is inclusive to all ages and backgrounds, integrating scientific data and an artistic human touch. Our goal was to increase public awareness of climate change and resiliency through the humanities in support of the Museum's mission to inspire Virginians to enrich their lives through science. Visitors were invited to attend Coral Reef Fever, a dance performance of coral bleaching; high school and university art exhibitions; climate data performed by a string quartet; poetry, rap, and theater performances; and a panel discussion by artists and scientists on communicating science through the arts and humanities. Based on 26 post- event survey results, we found as a result that visitors enjoyed the event (mean of 9.58 out of 10), learned new information (9.07), and strongly agreed that the arts and humanities should be used more in communicating science concepts (9.77). Funded in part by Bond Bradley Endowment and NOAA ELG Award #NA15SEC0080009.

  18. Assessing changes in drought characteristics with standardized indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Najac, Julien; Martin, Eric; Franchistéguy, Laurent; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel

    2010-05-01

    Standardized drought indices like the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) are more and more frequently adopted for drought reconstruction, monitoring and forecasting, and the SPI has been recently recommended by the World Meteorological Organization to characterize meteorological droughts. Such indices are based on the statistical distribution of a hydrometeorological variable (e.g., precipitation) in a given reference climate, and a drought event is defined as a period with continuously negative index values. Because of the way these indices are constructed, some issues may arise when using them in a non-stationnary climate. This work thus aims at highlighting such issues and demonstrating the different ways these indices may - or may not - be applied and interpreted in the context of an anthropogenic climate change. Three major points are detailed through examples taken from both a high-resolution gridded reanalysis dataset over France and transient projections from the ARPEGE general circulation model downscaled over France. The first point deals with the choice of the reference climate, and more specifically its type (from observations/reanalysis or from present-day modelled climate) and its record period. Second, the interpretation of actual changes are closely linked with the type of the selected drought feature over a future period: mean index value, under-threshold frequency, or drought event characteristics (number, mean duration and magnitude, seasonality, etc.). Finally, applicable approaches as well as related uncertainties depend on the availability of data from a future climate, whether in the form of a fully transient time series from present-day or only a future time slice. The projected evolution of drought characteristics under climate change must inform present decisions on long-term water resources planning. An assessment of changes in drought characteristics should therefore provide water managers with appropriate information that can help

  19. Climate engineering and the risk of rapid climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ross, Andrew; Damon Matthews, H

    2009-01-01

    Recent research has highlighted risks associated with the use of climate engineering as a method of stabilizing global temperatures, including the possibility of rapid climate warming in the case of abrupt removal of engineered radiative forcing. In this study, we have used a simple climate model to estimate the likely range of temperature changes associated with implementation and removal of climate engineering. In the absence of climate engineering, maximum annual rates of warming ranged from 0.015 to 0.07 deg. C/year, depending on the model's climate sensitivity. Climate engineering resulted in much higher rates of warming, with the temperature change in the year following the removal of climate engineering ranging from 0.13 to 0.76 deg. C. High rates of temperature change were sustained for two decades following the removal of climate engineering; rates of change of 0.5 (0.3,0.1) deg. C/decade were exceeded over a 20 year period with 15% (75%, 100%) likelihood. Many ecosystems could be negatively affected by these rates of temperature change; our results suggest that climate engineering in the absence of deep emissions cuts could arguably constitute increased risk of dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system under the criteria laid out in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

  20. Analysis of the Sustainable Growth Indicator in the Area of Climate Change from the Point of View of Europe 2020 Strategy Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dagmar Blatná

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present the results of an analysis of the indicator Greenhouse gas emissions (GGE. The GGE is one of the headline indicators tracked under the EU’s main socioeconomic strategy until the year 2020 – the EUROPE 2020 strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth. In the area of sustainable growth, the Resource-efficient Europe initiative was established. For 2020, the EU has made a unilateral commitment to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions from its 28 member states by 20 % compared to 1990 levels. The GGE indicator shows total man-made emissions of the so-called Kyoto basket of greenhouse gases. It presents annual total emissions in relation to those observed in 1990. The aggregate greenhouse gas emissions are expressed in units of CO2 equivalent. The development of the GGE indicator in the EU and in the Czech Republic from 2000 to 2014 from the point of view of the ability to achieve the Strategy objectives is analyzed. In terms of the level of the analyzed indicator, the set of the EU countries can be divided into two significantly different groups – the euro area and the non-euro area; or into groups by the year of their joining the EU. Analyses of the dependency between the growth of GGE and the GDP growth for both the set of the 28 EU countries and the Czech Republic are presented as well.

  1. Learning for Climate Change Adaptation among Selected ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Learning for Climate Change Adaptation among Selected Communities of Lusaka ... This research was aimed at surveying perceptions of climate change and ... This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

  2. Global Climate Change: Threat Multiplier for AFRICOM?

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Yackle, Terri A

    2007-01-01

    .... Whatever the catalyst for this abrupt climate change, stability for Africa hinges upon mitigating the effects of global climate change to prevent future conflicts such as Darfur, and the instability...

  3. Climate Change | Page 23 | IDRC - International Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Home · Agriculture and Environment. Climate Change. Language English. Read more about Strengthening Local Agricultural Innovation Systems in Tanzania and Malawi. Language English. Read more about African Climate Change Fellowship. Language English. Read more about Adaptation aux changements ...

  4. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Biodiversity Conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change threatens to create fundamental shifts in in the distributions and abundances of species. Given projected losses, increased emphasis on management for ecosystem resilience to help buffer fish and wildlife populations against climate change is emerging. Such effort...

  5. CLICHE: Education Games for Climate Change Countermeasures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fajar As'ari

    2017-10-01

    In this paper will discuss about education games: CLICHE. Game which explain concisely the cause and some action to minimizing climate change cause through digital game play that will has impact to lessening the climate change effects.

  6. Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

  7. Potential Impacts of Climate Change in Kenya

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogola, J.S.; Abira, M.A.; Awuor, V.O.

    1997-01-01

    According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), climate change is attributed directly or indirectly to human activities that alter the composition of the global atmosphere. It is a phenomenon that is still inadequately understood by the general public. Planners, policy makers and even within institutions of learning, but one which is bound to affect our environment and development activities. There is therefore need for information dissemination, systematic research, policy formulation, and development of strategies for managing climate change. The book is divided into five parts, Part I presents basic information on climate change; Part II looks at climatic change and natural resources; Part III discusses implications of climate change; Part IV presents ethical issues related to climatic change; and Part V deals with responses to climate change

  8. Transportation, Air Pollution, and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Centers Contact Us Share Transportation, Air Pollution, and Climate Change Overview Learn about pollutants from vehicles and engines that cause harmful health effects and climate change. Overview of air pollution from transportation Key issues, ...

  9. AGRICULTURAL VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    victoria

    to adapt to climate change automatically implies vulnerability [14]. Thus, a .... this pattern is that rainfall may not be witnessed when desired for agricultural production .... climate change since it will enhance their ability to adopt innovations and ...

  10. Climate Change, Indoor Environment and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change is becoming a driving force for improving energy efficiency because saving energy can help reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change. However, it is important to balance energy saving measures with ventilation...

  11. Protecting Your Forest from Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven McNulty

    2009-01-01

    Climate change is already impacting our forests and the situation is ongoing. As a landowner, there are management tools that you can use to help reduce the likelihood that climate change will cause serious harm to your forest.

  12. Health, Energy Efficiency and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change is becoming a driving force for improving energy efficiency because saving energy can help reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change. However, it is important to balance energy saving measures with ventilation...

  13. Georgian climate change under global warming conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariam Elizbarashvili

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Georgian Climate change has been considered comprehensively, taking into account World Meteorological Organization recommendations and recent observation data. On the basis of mean temperature and precipitation decadal trend geo-information maps for 1936–2012 years period, Georgian territory zoning has been carried out and for each areas climate indices main trends have been studied, that best characterize climate change - cold and hot days, tropical nights, vegetation period duration, diurnal maximum precipitation, maximum five-day total precipitation, precipitation intensity simple index, precipitation days number of at least 10 mm, 20 mm and 50 mm, rainy and rainless periods duration. Trends of temperature indices are statistically significant. On the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland at high confidence level cold and hot days and tropical nights number changes are statistically significant. On eastern Georgia plains at high level of statistical significance, the change of all considered temperature indices has been fixed except for the number of hot days. In mountainous areas only hot day number increasing is significant. Trends of most moisture indices are statistically insignificant. While keeping Georgian climate change current trends, precipitation amount on the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland, as well as in some parts of Western Caucasus to the end of the century will increase by 50% and amounts to 3000 and 6000 mm, respectively this will strengthen humidity of those areas. Besides increasing of rainy period duration may constitute the risk for flooding and high waters. On eastern Georgia plains, in particular Kvemo Kartli, annual precipitation amount will decrease by 50% or more, and will be only 150–200 mm and the precipitation daily maximum will decrease by about 20 mm and be only 10–15 mm, which of course will increase the intensity of desertification of steppe and semi-desert landscapes.

  14. Forest Policies Addressing Climate Change in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    As a developing country with a large population and a fragile ecological environment, China is particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Beginning with the Rio Conference of 1992 China has played a progressively enhanced role in combating climate change. A series of policies and measures to address climate change have been taken in the overall context of national sustainable development strategy, making positive contributions to the mitigation and adaptation to climate change, among ...

  15. Land Use, Climate Change and Ecosystem Services

    OpenAIRE

    Attavanich, Witsanu; Rashford, Benjamin S.; Adams, Richard M.; McCarl, Bruce A.

    2011-01-01

    The combination of shifts in crop production and a reduction in wetland ecosystems associated with climate change are forecast to reduce native grasslands and associated obligate species. Most estimates of climate change impacts to wildlife, however, do not account for how humans are likely to alter land use in response to climate changes. We examine the joint effect of climate change and the resulting land use response of farmers on waterfowl production in the Prairie Pothole Region of Nor...

  16. U.S. Navy Climate Change Roadmap

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    Climate change is a national security challenge with strategic implications for the Navy. Climate change will lead to increased tensions in nations...with weak economies and political institutions. While climate change alone is not likely to lead to future conflict, it may be a contributing factor... Climate change is affecting, and will continue to affect, U.S. military installations and access to natural resources worldwide. It will affect the

  17. Politics of climate change: a European perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Riordan, T.; Jaeger, Jill

    1996-01-01

    The Politics of Climate Change provides a critical analysis of the political, moral and legal response to climate change, in the midst of various other closely connected socio-economic policy shifts. Evolving from original EC commissioned research, it examines how climate change was put on the policy agenda with the evolution of the United Nations Framework Convention and subsequent Conference of Parties, and considers the uncertainties of climate futures in the context of changing social and industrial policies. (Author)

  18. Exploring Connections between Global Climate Indices and African Vegetation Phenology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; deBeurs, Kirsten; Vrieling, Anton

    2009-01-01

    Variations in agricultural production due to rainfall and temperature fluctuations are a primary cause of food insecurity on the continent in Africa. Agriculturally destructive droughts and floods are monitored from space using satellite remote sensing by organizations seeking to provide quantitative and predictive information about food security crises. Better knowledge on the relation between climate indices and food production may increase the use of these indices in famine early warning systems and climate outlook forums on the continent. Here we explore the relationship between phenology metrics derived from the 26 year AVHRR NDVI record and the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We explore spatial relationships between growing conditions as measured by the NDVI and the five climate indices in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa to determine the regions and periods when they have a significant impact. The focus is to provide a clear indication as to which climate index has the most impact on the three regions during the past quarter century. We found that the start of season and cumulative NDVI were significantly affected by variations in the climate indices. The particular climate index and the timing showing highest correlation depended heavily on the region examined. The research shows that climate indices can contribute to understanding growing season variability in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa.

  19. Weather anomalies affect Climate Change microblogging intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molodtsova, T.; Kirilenko, A.

    2012-12-01

    There is a huge gap between the scientific consensus and public understanding of climate change. Climate change has become a political issue and a "hot" topic in mass media that only adds the complexity to forming the public opinion. Scientists operate in scientific terms, not necessarily understandable by general public, while it is common for people to perceive the latest weather anomaly as an evidence of climate change. In 1998 Hansen et al. introduced a concept of an objectively measured subjective climate change indicator, which can relate public feeling that the climate is changing to the observed meteorological parameters. We tested this concept in a simple example of a temperature-based index, which we related to microblogging activity. Microblogging is a new form of communication in which the users describe their current status in short Internet messages. Twitter (http://twitter.com), is currently the most popular microblogging platform. There are multiple reasons, why this data is particularly valuable to the researches interested in social dynamics: microblogging is widely used to publicize one's opinion with the public; has broad, diverse audience, represented by users from many countries speaking different languages; finally, Twitter contains an enormous number of data, e.g., there were 1,284,579 messages related to climate change from 585,168 users in the January-May data collection. We collected the textual data entries, containing words "climate change" or "global warming" from the 1st of January, 2012. The data was retrieved from the Internet every 20 minutes using a specially developed Python code. Using geolocational information, blog entries originating from the New York urbanized area were selected. These entries, used as a source of public opinion on climate change, were related to the surface temperature, obtained from La Guardia airport meteorological station. We defined the "significant change" in the temperature index as deviation of the

  20. Salt Marshes as Potential Indicatore of Global Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, Daehyun; Cairens, David; Jung, S.H.

    2011-01-01

    Coastal scientists postulate that salt marshes are significantly affected by dynamics of global climate. However, few studies have explicitly proposed a perspective that regards salt marshes as potential indicators of climate change. This review article evaluates the possibility of salt marshes...... as indicators of global climate change, focusing upon three major aspects: sedimentary, vegetation, and biogeochemical dynamics. The previous literature concerned with these aspects commonly argues that the primary impact of climate change on salt marshes occurs via sea-level variations, because hydrologic...... fluctuations regulate the frequency, duration, and depth of over-marsh flooding events. Sedimentary, floristic, and biogeochemical dynamics prove to be significantly influenced by sealevel changes regardless of climate zones, and hence, undoubtedly possess a potential for indicating climate signatures. However...