WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate change indicators

  1. Climate Change Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presents information, charts and graphs showing measured climate changes across 40 indicators related to greenhouse gases, weather and climate, oceans, snow and ice, heath and society, and ecosystems.

  2. SOILS AS INDICATORS OF CLIMATIC CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yury Chendev

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A number of examples for the reaction of chernozems in the center of the East European Plain and their relation to different periodical climatic changes are examined. According to unequal-age chernozems properties, the transition from the Middle Holocene arid conditions to the Late Holocene wet conditions occurred at 4000 yr BP. Using data on changes of soil properties, the position of boundary between steppe and forest-steppe and the annual amount of precipitation at approximately 4000 yr BP were reconstructed. The change from warm-dry to cool-moist climatic phases, which occurred at the end of the XX century as a reflection of intra-age-long climatic cyclic recurrence, led to the strengthening of dehumification over the profile of automorphic chernozems and to the reduction of its content in the upper meter of the soils. The leaching of carbonates and of readily soluble salts contributed to the decrease in soil areas occupied by typical and solonetzic chernozems, and to the increase in areas occupied by leached chernozems.

  3. Climate Change Indicators in the United States, 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA partners with over 40 data contributors from various government agencies, academic institutions, and other organizations to compile and communicate key indicators related to the causes and effects of climate change, the significance of these changes, and their possible conseq...

  4. Impacts of Europe's changing climate- 2008 indicator-based assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swart, R.J.

    2008-01-01

    The report presents past and projected climate change and impacts in Europe by means of about 40 indicators and identifies sectors and regions most vulnerable with a high need for adaptation. The report covers the following indicator categories: atmosphere and climate, cryosphere, marine biodiversit

  5. Application of Drought Indices for the Changed Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubrovsky, M.; Hayes, M.; Trnka, M.; Svoboda, M.; Wilhite, D.; Zalud, Z.; Semeradova, D.

    2005-12-01

    Drought conditions are commonly assessed using the drought indices. Of these, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) are the most frequent. In addition to SPI (1 to 24 months aggregation) and PDSI, the Z index is also used in the Czech Republic. It is closely related to PDSI but does not account for the persistence; rather, it characterizes the immediate (for a given week or month) conditions. While the SPI is based solely on precipitation data, the PDSI and Z indices are based on precipitation and temperature data and on the available water content of the soil. For climate change impact studies, we consider PDSI and Z to be better indicators as they account for the changes in both temperature and precipitation. The three indices are calculated by programs available from the National Drought Mitigation Center and the Department of Computer Science and Engineering, both located at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. In the original versions of the three indices, their values are calibrated using a single input series data so that the range of the values is approximately the same for all input weather series (self-calibrated indices). To allow assessment of the climate change impacts, a modification was made: the indices are now calibrated using the present climate (learning) weather series and then applied to the future climate weather series (relative indices). In assessing impacts of climate change, we will analyze not only the shifts in the values of the indices but also changes in the drought event characteristics (e.g. frequency, mean duration, accumulated intensity, peak intensity). The drought events are defined here as continuous periods in which the index: (a) does not exceed the selected upper threshold value, and (b) falls at least once below the lower threshold value. Threshold values of 0 and -1 are used to define the SPI based drought spells, -1 and -3 are used to define PDSI-based and Z-based drought

  6. Epiphytes as an Indicator of Climate Change in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettwich, S. K.

    2013-12-01

    Although climate change threatens many ecosystems, current research in this field suggests tropical vegetation lags in response. Epiphytes, or arboreal vegetation, occupy tight, climate-defined niches compared with co-occurring life forms such as trees, yet there have been few studies of Hawaii's epiphyte communities. Because of Hawaii Island's natural climatic diversity, it is an ideal location to understand how these intrinsically climate sensitive plants interact with the atmosphere and evaluate how they may serve as a near-term indicator of climate change. Here we establish a baseline from which changes in corticolous epiphyte communities can be monitored as a leading indicator of likely forest changes by 1) investigating patterns of epiphyte abundance and species composition across elevation and precipitation gradients on windward Hawaii Island, and 2) using physiological measurements to investigate the relative importance of rain vs. fog in epiphyte-atmosphere interactions. The precipitation gradient keeps elevation constant at 1000m, while varying precipitation between 2,400 and 6,400 mm/year. The elevation gradient keeps rainfall constant at 3000mm/year, and varies elevation between 200 and 1750 m. Forest sites are dominated by Ohia Lehua (Metrosideros polymorpha) across broad geographic and climatological ranges thus allowing examination of epiphytes on this single host. We quantified bryophytes and vascular plants growing on Ohia trunks with standardized diameter and branching characteristics. Overall, epiphyte communities showed much finer scale responses to climate variation when compared with structurally dominant vegetation (which was broadly similar at all sites). The precipitation gradient exhibits a clear increase in abundance of all epiphyte groups and a definable increase in diversity with increasing rainfall. Results across the elevation gradient show a higher abundance of filmy ferns and bryophytes above the lifting condensation level (about

  7. Mountains as early warning indicators of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, M. W.

    2015-12-01

    The panoramic splendor and complexity of mountain environments have inspired and challenged humans for centuries. These areas have been variously perceived as physical structures to be conquered, as sites of spiritual inspiration, and as some of the last untamed natural places on Earth. In our time, the perception that "mountains are forever" may provide solace to those seeking stability in a rapidly changing world. However, changes in the hydrology and in the abundance and species composition of the native flora and fauna of mountain ecosystems are potential bellwethers of global change, because these systems have a propensity to amplify environmental changes within specific portions of this landscape. Mountain areas are thus sentinels of climate change. We are seeing effects today in case histories I present from the Himalaya's, Andes, Alps, and Rocky Mountains. Furthermore, these ecosystem changes are occurring in mountain areas before they occur in downstream ecosystems. Thus, mountains are early warning indicators of perturbations such as climate change. The sensitivity of mountain ecosystems begs for enhanced protection and worldwide protection. Our understanding of the processes that control mountain ecosystems—climate interactions, snowmelt runoff, biotic diversity, nutrient cycling—is much less developed compared to downstream ecosystems where human habitation and development has resulted in large investments in scientific knowledge to sustain health and agriculture. To address these deficiencies, I propose the formation of an international mountain research consortium.

  8. Impact of climate change in Switzerland on socioeconomic snow indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmucki, Edgar; Marty, Christoph; Fierz, Charles; Weingartner, Rolf; Lehning, Michael

    2017-02-01

    Snow is a key element for many socioeconomic activities in mountainous regions. Due to the sensitivity of the snow cover to variations of temperature and precipitation, major changes caused by climate change are expected to happen. We analyze the evolution of some key snow indices under future climatic conditions. Ten downscaled and postprocessed climate scenarios from the ENSEMBLES database have been used to feed the physics-based snow model SNOWPACK. The projected snow cover has been calculated for 11 stations representing the diverse climates found in Switzerland. For the first time, such a setup is used to reveal changes in frequently applied snow indices and their implications on various socioeconomic sectors. Toward the end of the twenty-first century, a continuous snow cover is likely only guaranteed at high elevations above 2000 m a.s.l., whereas at mid elevations (1000-1700 m a.s.l.), roughly 50 % of all winters might be characterized by an ephemeral snow cover. Low elevations (below 500 m a.s.l.) are projected to experience only 2 days with snowfall per year and show the strongest relative reductions in mean winter snow depth of around 90 %. The range of the mean relative reductions of the snow indices is dominated by uncertainties from different GCM-RCM projections and amounts to approximately 30 %. Despite these uncertainties, all snow indices show a clear decrease in all scenario periods and the relative reductions increase toward lower elevations. These strong reductions can serve as a basis for policy makers in the fields of tourism, ecology, and hydropower.

  9. Geomorphic responses as indicators of paleoclimate and climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-07-01

    There is little doubt that climate is an important parameter affecting the shape of the Earth`s surface. However absolute observance to the principles of climatic geomorphology leads us away from the study of processes because the analyses passes directly from climate to landscape form. An alternative approach is to examine the effects of climate change on the nature of the processes operating in the near surface environment. Utilizing this methodology, the climate-process relations take on greater significance, and lead to an understanding of the response(s) of geomorphic systems to shifts in climatic regime. Given that geomorphic systems respond to changes in climate regime, it should also be true that delineation of the changes in the types, rates, and magnitudes of geomorphic processes will provide insights into the timing and nature of past shifts in climate, particularly effective moisture. It is this approach that has been utilized herein. Specifically, geomorphic responses in eolian, lacustrine, and fluvial systems that have resulted in erosional and depositional events have been documented for several sites in Nevada (Figure 1), and used to infer the timing and character of climatic change in the Basin and Range Physiographic Province. The results and conclusions of the specific studies are provided.

  10. Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, Melissa A.; Chen, Robert S.; Maldonado, Julie; Quattrochi, Dale

    2011-01-01

    The Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment workshop, sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for the National Climate Assessment (NCA), was held on April 28-29, 2011 at The Madison Hotel in Washington, DC. A group of 56 experts (see list in Appendix B) convened to share their experiences. Participants brought to bear a wide range of disciplinary expertise in the social and natural sciences, sector experience, and knowledge about developing and implementing indicators for a range of purposes. Participants included representatives from federal and state government, non-governmental organizations, tribes, universities, and communities. The purpose of the workshop was to assist the NCA in developing a strategic framework for climate-related physical, ecological, and socioeconomic indicators that can be easily communicated with the U.S. population and that will support monitoring, assessment, prediction, evaluation, and decision-making. The NCA indicators are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The workshop participants were asked to provide input on a number of topics, including: (1) categories of societal indicators for the NCA; (2) alternative approaches to constructing indicators and the better approaches for NCA to consider; (3) specific requirements and criteria for implementing the indicators; and (4) sources of data for and creators of such indicators. Socioeconomic indicators could include demographic, cultural, behavioral, economic, public health, and policy components relevant to impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation to climate change as well as both proactive and reactive responses to climate change. Participants provided

  11. Financial market response to extreme events indicating climatic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

    2016-05-01

    A variety of recent extreme climatic events are considered to be strong evidence that the climate is warming, but these incremental advances in certainty often seem ignored by non-scientists. I identify two unusual types of events that are considered to be evidence of climate change, announcements by NASA that the global annual average temperature has set a new record, and the sudden collapse of major polar ice shelves, and then conduct an event study to test whether news of these events changes investors' valuation of energy companies, a subset of firms whose future performance is closely tied to climate change. I find evidence that both classes of events have influenced energy stock prices since the 1990s, with record temperature announcements on average associated with negative returns and ice shelf collapses associated with positive returns. I identify a variety of plausible mechanisms that may be driving these differential responses, discuss implications for energy markets' views on long-term regulatory risk, and conclude that investors not only pay attention to scientifically significant climate events, but discriminate between signals carrying different information about the nature of climatic change.

  12. Indicators of climate change in Idaho: An assessment framework for coupling biophysical change and social perception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change is well documented at the global scale, but local and regional changes are not as well understood. Finer, local-to-regional scale information is needed for creating specific, place-based planning and adaption efforts. Here we detail the development of an indicator-focused climate chan...

  13. Tropical Glaciers: Recorders and Indicators of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, L. G.; Mosley-Thompson, E. S.; Buffen, A.; Urmann, D.; Davis, M. E.; Lin, P.

    2008-12-01

    Tropical climate is dominated on interannual time scales by monsoons and especially by ENSO, which is responsible for meteorological phenomena that directly or indirectly affect most regions on the planet and their populations. Common tropical teleconnections to the extra tropics include a stronger Aleutian low, stronger westerlies, variations in convective activity (flooding and drought), and modulation of tropical storm intensities. New ice core records from the Quelccaya and Coropuna ice caps provide 1700 years of continuous, annually-resolved records of climate and environmental variability expressed in the oxygen and hydrogen isotopic ratios, concentrations of mineral dust and various chemical species and net mass accumulation. These records provide an opportunity to examine the nature of tropical climate variability in greater detail, and to extract new information on ENSO and monsoon-linked climate phenomena. Quelccaya records display a prominent Little Ice Age isotopic depletion from 1520 to 1880 A.D. and a muted Medieval Warming between 1100 and 1300 AD. Drier conditions dominated from 300 to 500 AD, 1190 to 1470 AD and 1710 to 1910 with slightly wetter conditions from 500 to 1190 AD, and much wetter conditions from 1470 to 1710 A.D. and from 1910 A.D. to the present. The major cation and anion concentrations record other environmental changes over the past 1700 years. The longer tropical climate histories from Coropuna and Huascarán (Peru), Sajama (Bolivia), and Kilimanjaro (Tanzania) document abrupt climate disruptions such as the 4.2 ka drought and an extreme cold and wet period centered at 5.2 ka. The well documented ongoing ice loss on Quelccaya and Kilimanjaro paint a grim future for glacier histories from the tropics. The current melting of high-altitude, low-latitude ice fields is consistent with model predictions for a vertical amplification of temperature in the tropics. The ongoing glacier retreat in the Andes, Himalayas and Africa has

  14. Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change as Revealed by Relationships between Simulated Crop Yield and Climate Change Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, A. W.; Absar, S. M.; Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.

    2012-12-01

    The vulnerability of agriculture is among the leading concerns surrounding climate change. Agricultural production is influenced by drought and other extremes in weather and climate. In regions of subsistence farming, worst case reductions in yield lead to malnutrition and famine. Reduced surplus contributes to poverty in agrarian economies. In more economically diverse and industrialized regions, variations in agricultural yield can influence the regional economy through market mechanisms. The latter grows in importance as agriculture increasingly services the energy market in addition to markets for food and fiber. Agriculture is historically a highly adaptive enterprise and will respond to future changes in climate with a variety of adaptive mechanisms. Nonetheless, the risk, if not expectation, of increases in climate extremes and hazards exceeding historical experience motivates scientifically based anticipatory assessment of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change. We investigate the sensitivity component of that vulnerability using EPIC, a well established field-scale model of cropping systems that includes the simulation of economic yield. The core of our analysis is the relationship between simulated yield and various indices of climate change, including the CCI/CLIVAR/JCOM ETCCDI indices, calculated from weather inputs to the model. We complement this core with analysis using the DSSAT cropping system model and exploration of relationships between historical yield statistics and climate indices calculated from weather records. Our analyses are for sites in the Southeast/Gulf Coast region of the United States. We do find "tight" monotonic relationships between annual yield and climate for some indices, especially those associated with available water. More commonly, however, we find an increase in the variability of yield as the index value becomes more extreme. Our findings contribute to understanding the sensitivity of crop yield as part of

  15. Long-term ERP time series as indicators for global climate variability and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, E.; Grötzsch, A.; Ulbrich, U.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Nevir, P.; Thomas, M.

    2009-04-01

    This study assesses whether variations in observed Earth orientation parameters (EOPs, IERS) such as length-of day (LOD EOP C04) and polar motion (PM EOP C04) can be applied as climate indicators. Data analyses suggest that observed EOPs are differently affected by parameters associated with the atmosphere and ocean. On interannual time scales the varying ocean-atmosphere effects on EOPs are in particular pronounced during episodes of the coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Observed ENSO anomalies of spatial patterns of parameters affected by atmosphere and ocean (climate indices and sea surface temperatures) are related to LOD and PM variability and associated with possible physical background processes. Present time analyses (1962 - 2000) indicate that the main source of the varying ENSO signal on observed LOD can be associated with anomalies of the relative angular momentum (AAM) related to variations in location and strength of jet streams of the upper troposphere. While on interannual time scales observed LOD and AAM are highly correlated (r=0.75), results suggest that strong El Niño events affect the observed LOD - AAM relation differently strong (explained variance 71%- 98%). Accordingly, the relation between AAM and ocean sea surface temperatures (SST) in the NIÑO 3.4 region differs (explained variances 15%-73%). Corresponding analysis is conducted on modelled EOPs (ERA40 reanalysis, ECHAM5-OM1) to obtain Earth rotation parameters undisturbed by core-mantle activities, and to study rotational variations under climate variability and change. A total of 91 strong El Niño events are analysed in coupled ocean-atmosphere ECHAM5-OM1 scenarios concerning the 20th century (20C), climate warming (A1B) and pre-industrial climate variability. Analyses on a total of 61 strong El Niño events covering a time period of 505 simulation years under pre-industrial climate conditions indicate a range of El Niño events with a strong or

  16. Chromium Isotopes in Marine Carbonates - an Indicator for Climatic Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frei, R.; Gaucher, C.

    2010-12-01

    Chromium (Cr) stable isotopes experience an increased interest as a tracer of Cr (VI) reduction in groundwater and thus showed their potential as a monitor of remediation of anthropogenic and natural contamination in water (Berna et al., 2009; Izbicki et al., 2008). Chromium stable isotopes in Fe-rich chemical sediments (BIFs and Fe-cherts) have recently also been used as a tracer for Earth's atmospheric oxygenation through time (Frei et al., 2009). We have applied the Cr isotope system to organic-rich carbonates from a late Ediacaran succession in Uruguay (Polanco Formation), from which we have previously analyzed BIFs with extremely fractionated (δ53Cr up to 5.0 ‰) Cr isotope signatures that are part of an underlying deep water clastic sediment (shale-dominated) sequence (Yerbal Formation) deposited in a glacio-marine environment (Gaucher et al.,2004). δ53Cr values of organic rich carbonates correlate with positive and negative carbon isotope excursions (δ13C PDB between -3 and +3 ‰) and with systematic changes in strontium isotope compositions, commonly interpreted as to reflect fluctuations in organic (photosynthetic algae) production related to fluctuations in atmospheric oxygen and weathering intensities, respectively. Slightly positively fractioned δ53Cr values (up to +0.25‰), paralleling positive (δ13C PDB and 87Sr/86Sr ratio excursions would thereby trace elevated atmospheric oxygen levels/pulses possibly related to glacier retreat/melting stages that caused bioproductivity to increase. While the causal link between these multiple isotopic tracers and the mechanisms of Cr stripping into carbonates has to be further investigated in detail, the first indications from this study point to a potentially promising use of stable Cr isotopes in organic-rich carbonates to monitor fluctuations of atmospheric oxygen, particularly over the Neoproterozoic and Phanerozoic ice age periods. E.C. Berna et al. (2010) Cr stable isotopes as indicators of Cr

  17. Evaluation of Rural Farming Households Awareness Level to Climate Change Indicators in Bayelsa State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emaziye P.O.

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The study focused on the evaluation of rural households’ awareness level to climate change indicators and their direction of change in Bayelsa state, Nigeria. The main objective was to determine the rural household’s perception to climate change in the state and the specific objective was to determine the direction of change of the climate change indicators (whether increasing, decreasing or constant. Multistage sampling procedure was used in random selection of local government areas, communities and rural households for the research study. Two hundred and seventy eight respondents were utilized for this research study. Data for this study were obtained using structured questionnaire survey and also annual mean time series data from Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET that include the following; temperature and rainfall were collected. Descriptive statistic was used to analyze the respondents’ socio-economic characteristics, climate change awareness and perception to climate change and direction of change in the state. Rural farming households noticed increase changes in climate variables and events like early rains not sustained, crops smothered by excessive heat, crops are planted and replanted, irregular rainfall pattern, delayed onset of rainfall, shorter raining season, floods, coastal erosion and higher temperature. The rural farming households’ perception to the cause of direction of change of climate change indicators that is increasing in the state believes that it is a natural occurrence by God or gods. The study therefore recommends climate change awareness campaign with science-based data should be the beginning for policy making and implementation targeted at effective dissemination of climate change information to the rural farming households. Climate change awareness should be of immense importance for proper climate change adaptation. This will in turn reduce rural household’s food insecurity situation in the state.

  18. Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonius G T Schut

    Full Text Available Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010 derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17-36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1-2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity.

  19. Trends in global vegetation activity and climatic drivers indicate a decoupled response to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schut, Antonius G T; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G.;

    2015-01-01

    Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty...... an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration...... in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS...

  20. Effect of climate change on environmental flow indicators in the narew basin, poland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piniewski, Mikołaj; Laizé, Cédric L R; Acreman, Michael C; Okruszko, Tomasz; Schneider, Christof

    2014-01-01

    Environmental flows-the quantity of water required to maintain a river ecosystem in its desired state-are of particular importance in areas of high natural value. Water-dependent ecosystems are exposed to the risk of climate change through altered precipitation and evaporation. Rivers in the Narew basin in northeastern Poland are known for their valuable river and wetland ecosystems, many of them in pristine or near-pristine condition. The objective of this study was to assess changes in the environmental flow regime of the Narew river system, caused by climate change, as simulated by hydrological models with different degrees of physical characterization and spatial aggregation. Two models were assessed: the river basin scale model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the continental model of water availability and use WaterGAP. Future climate change scenarios were provided by two general circulation models coupled with the A2 emission scenario: IPSL-CM4 and MIROC3.2. To assess the impact of climate change on environmental flows, a method based conceptually on the "range of variability" approach was used. The results indicate that the environmental flow regime in the Narew basin is subject to climate change risk, whose magnitude and spatial variability varies with climate model and hydrological modeling scale. Most of the analyzed sites experienced moderate impacts for the Generic Environmental Flow Indicator (GEFI), the Floodplain Inundation Indicator, and the River Habitat Availability Indicator. The consistency between SWAT and WaterGAP for GEFI was medium: in 55 to 66% of analyzed sites, the models suggested the same level of impact. Hence, we suggest that state-of-the-art, high-resolution, global- or continental-scale models, such as WaterGAP, could be useful tools for water management decision-makers and wetland conservation practitioners, whereas models such as SWAT should serve as a complementary tool for more specific, smaller-scale, local

  1. An Approach to Developing Local Climate Change Environmental Public Health Indicators in a Rural District

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Climate change represents a significant and growing threat to population health. Rural areas face unique challenges, such as high rates of vulnerable populations; economic uncertainty due to their reliance on industries that are vulnerable to climate change; less resilient infrastructure; and lower levels of access to community and emergency services than urban areas. This article fills a gap in public health practice by developing climate and health environmental public health indicators for a local public health department in a rural area. We adapted the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network's framework for climate and health indicators to a seven-county health department in Western Kentucky. Using a three-step review process, we identified primary climate-related environmental public health hazards for the region (extreme heat, drought, and flooding) and a suite of related exposure, health outcome, population vulnerability, and environmental vulnerability indicators. Indicators that performed more poorly at the county level than at the state and national level were defined as “high vulnerability.” Six to eight high vulnerability indicators were identified for each county. The local health department plans to use the results to enhance three key areas of existing services: epidemiology, public health preparedness, and community health assessment. PMID:28352286

  2. The study of climate suitability for grapevine cropping using ecoclimatic indicators under climatic change conditions in France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, I.; Caubel, J.; Cufi, J.; Huard, F.; Launay, M.; deNoblet, N.

    2013-12-01

    Climatic conditions play a fundamental role in the suitability of geographical areas for cropping. In the case of grape, climatic conditions such as water supply and temperatures have an effect of grape quality. In the context of climate change, we could expect changes in overall climatic conditions and so, in grape quality. We proposed to use GETARI (Generic Evaluation Tool of Ecoclimatic Indicators) in order to assess the future climate suitability of two French sites for grape (Vitis vinifera) regarding its quality. GETARI calculates an overall climate suitability index at the annual scale, from a designed evaluation tree. This aggregation tool proposes the major ecophysiological processes taking place during phenological periods, together with the climatic effects that are known to affect their achievement. The effects of climate on the ecophysiological processes are captured by the ecoclimatic indicators, which are agroclimatic indicators calculated over phenological periods. They give information about crop response to climate through ecophysiological or agronomic thresholds. These indicators are normalized and aggregated according to aggregation rules in order to compute an overall climate index. To assess the future climate suitability of two French sites for grape regarding its quality, we designed an evaluation tree from GETARI, by considering the effect of water deficit between flowering and veraison and the effect of water deficit, water excess, heat stress, temperature ranges between day and night, night temperatures and mean temperatures between veraison and harvest. The two sites are located in Burgundy and Rhone valley which are two of the most important vineyards in the world. Ecoclimatic indicators are calculated using phenological cycle of the crop. For this reason we chose Grenache and Pinot Noir as long and short cycle varieties respectively. Flowering, veraison and harvest dates were simulated (Parker et al., 2011; Yiou et al., 2012). Daily

  3. Indicators for Tracking European Vulnerabilities to the Risks of Infectious Disease Transmission due to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan E. Suk

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available A wide range of infectious diseases may change their geographic range, seasonality and incidence due to climate change, but there is limited research exploring health vulnerabilities to climate change. In order to address this gap, pan-European vulnerability indices were developed for 2035 and 2055, based upon the definition vulnerability = impact/adaptive capacity. Future impacts were projected based upon changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, whilst adaptive capacity was developed from the results of a previous pan-European study. The results were plotted via ArcGISTM to EU regional (NUTS2 levels for 2035 and 2055 and ranked according to quintiles. The models demonstrate regional variations with respect to projected climate-related infectious disease challenges that they will face, and with respect to projected vulnerabilities after accounting for regional adaptive capacities. Regions with higher adaptive capacities, such as in Scandinavia and central Europe, will likely be better able to offset any climate change impacts and are thus generally less vulnerable than areas with lower adaptive capacities. The indices developed here provide public health planners with information to guide prioritisation of activities aimed at strengthening regional preparedness for the health impacts of climate change. There are, however, many limitations and uncertainties when modeling health vulnerabilities. To further advance the field, the importance of variables such as coping capacity and governance should be better accounted for, and there is the need to systematically collect and analyse the interlinkages between the numerous and ever-expanding environmental, socioeconomic, demographic and epidemiologic datasets so as to promote the public health capacity to detect, forecast, and prepare for the health threats due to climate change.

  4. A Prototype Indicators System for U.S. Climate Changes, Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, M. A.; Janetos, A.; Gerst, M.; Lloyd, A.; Wolfinger, J. F.; Reyes, J. J.; Anderson, S. M.; Pouyat, R. V.

    2015-12-01

    Indicators are observations or calculations that are used to systematically report or forecast social and biophysical conditions over time. When the purpose of indicators is to, in part, provide complex scientific information that is understood by non-scientists and included in decision processes, the choice of indicators requires a structured process that includes co-production among a range of actors, including scientists, decision-makers, and a range of stakeholders. Here we describe recommendations on a vision and a prototype created for an indicators system, we term the National Climate Indicators System (NCIS). The goal of the NCIS is to create a system of physical, natural, and societal indicators to communicate and inform decisions about climate changes, impacts, vulnerabilities, and responses. The process of generating the indicator system involved input from over 200 subject-matter experts. Organized into 13 teams, experts created conceptual models of their respective sectors to generate an initial recommended set of indicators. A subset of indicators, which could be immediately implemented, were prototyped for the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) a Federal program that coordinates and supports integration of global change research across the government. USGCRP reviewed the recommendations (Kenney et al., 2014) and prototypes provided by the scientific experts, and recently launched 14 indicators as proof-of-concept in support of a sustained National Climate Assessment and to solicit feedback from the users. Social science research is currently being undertaken in order to evaluate how well the prototype indicators communicate science to non-scientists, the usability of indicator system portal by scientists and decision-makers, and the development of information visualization guidelines to improve visual communication effectiveness. The goal of such efforts would be to provide input into the development of a more comprehensive USGCRP indicator

  5. Indigenous community health and climate change: integrating biophysical and social science indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donatuto, Jamie; Grossman, Eric E.; Konovsky, John; Grossman, Sarah; Campbell, Larry W.

    2014-01-01

    This article describes a pilot study evaluating the sensitivity of Indigenous community health to climate change impacts on Salish Sea shorelines (Washington State, United States and British Columbia, Canada). Current climate change assessments omit key community health concerns, which are vital to successful adaptation plans, particularly for Indigenous communities. Descriptive scaling techniques, employed in facilitated workshops with two Indigenous communities, tested the efficacy of ranking six key indicators of community health in relation to projected impacts to shellfish habitat and shoreline archaeological sites stemming from changes in the biophysical environment. Findings demonstrate that: when shellfish habitat and archaeological resources are impacted, so is Indigenous community health; not all community health indicators are equally impacted; and, the community health indicators of highest concern are not necessarily the same indicators most likely to be impacted. Based on the findings and feedback from community participants, exploratory trials were successful; Indigenous-specific health indicators may be useful to Indigenous communities who are assessing climate change sensitivities and creating adaptation plans.

  6. Using large-scale climate indices in climate change ecology studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads Cedergreen; Post, Eric

    2004-01-01

    Ecological responses, El Niño 3.4, Long-term climate variability, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Oscillation, Teleconnection patterns......Ecological responses, El Niño 3.4, Long-term climate variability, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Oscillation, Teleconnection patterns...

  7. Effects of climate change on agroclimatic indices in rainfed wheat production areas of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    mehdi nassiri mahalati

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Despite the importance of all climatic parameters for crop growth and productivity, temperature and rainfall are more crucial compared to others and almost all climatic and agroclimatic indices are based on these two variables. Climate change will lead to variation in agroclimatic indices and evaluation of this variation is a key to study crop response to future climatic conditions. Length of growing period (LGP and rainfall deficit index could be used as indictors for assessment of potential impact of climate change of rainfed systems. To study this impact long-term weather data of main rainfed wheat production areas of Iran were collected. UKMO general circulation model was used for perdiction of climatic parameters of selected stations for years 2025 and 2050 based on pre defined scenarios of IPCC for this target years. LGP, length of dry season and rainfall deficit index were calculated from present data and the generated data for target years. The results showed that LGP based on temperature would be increased in all rainfed areas of country. However, including the water availability in the calculation was led to a lowered LGP. Reduction of LGP for the studied stations was in the range of 8-36 and 19-55 days for years 2025 and 2050, respectively. Rainfall deficit index for 2025 and 2050 was varied, respectively at 8.3-17.7 and 21.1-32.3 mm. It was estimated that under climatic condition of years 2025 and 2050 the cultivated areas in the main rainfed production regions of the country would be reduced by 16-25 and 23-33%, respectively.

  8. Establishment of an indicator concept for the German strategy on adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoenthaler, Konstanze; Andrian-Werburg, Stefan von; Wulfert, Katrin [Bosch und Partner GmbH, Muenchen (Germany); Luthardt, Vera; Kreinsen, Beatrice; Schultz-Sternberg, R.; Hommel, Robert [Hochschule fuer Nachhaltige Entwicklung Eberswalde (Germany)

    2010-11-15

    Even if we succeed in achieving the EU target of reducing global warming to 2 C, it will be absolutely essential to adapt to changing climatic conditions. The greenhouse gases currently present in the atmosphere will influence the climate in coming decades. The day on which it is quite clear which climatic scenario prevails, so that it is possible to model all relevant processes down to regional level, will be the day on which it is too late to adapt to the actual scenario. Our endeavours to adapt to climate change do not mean, however, that we can neglect to take measures in order to reduce the output of greenhouse gases. It is important to remember that on their own, neither adaptation nor mitigation can prevent the grave impacts resulting from climate change. In fact, they complement each other meaningfully thus helping to alleviate the risks of climate change. On 17th December 2008 the German Federal Cabinet adopted the DAS (German Strategy for the Adaptation to Climate Change), (Bundesregierung 2008). The DAS has created the framework for adapting to the consequences of climate change in Germany. First and fore-most, the DAS contributes its guidelines at Federal level, to provide a guideline for agents at other levels. The Strategy lays the foundation for a medium-term process. In conjunction with the individual Federal States and other groups representing various sectors of society, the Strategy provides a step-by-step assessment of the risks of climate change. Furthermore, it states the potential requirements for action, and defines the appropriate goals and potential adaptation measures to be developed and implemented in this process. In due course, the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) will design a comprehensive set of tools to support and advance the DAS. An integral part of this will be the Special Information System 'Adaptation' (FISKA) and an Indicator System to aid adaptation. The latter is one of the key tasks identified for the DAS. As far

  9. Review and Quantitative Analysis of Indices of Climate Change Exposure, Adaptive Capacity, Sensitivity, and Impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Füssel, Hans-Martin

    2010-01-01

    Adaptation to climate change is necessary, in addition to mitigation of climate change, to avoid unacceptable impacts of anthropogenic climate change [IPCC 2007]. UNFCCC Article 4 requires developed countries to assist developing countries that are "particularly vulnerable" to climate change in meeting costs of adaptation to its adverse effects. As a result, three funds have been established under the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol to provide financial resources for assessing, planning, and implem...

  10. Long Series of GNSS Integrated Precipitable Water as a Climate Change Indicator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kruczyk Michał

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates information potential contained in tropospheric delay product for selected International GNSS Service (IGS stations in climatologic research. Long time series of daily averaged Integrated Precipitable Water (IPW can serve as climate indicator. The seasonal model of IPW change has been adjusted to the multi-year series (by the least square method. Author applied two modes: sinusoidal and composite (two or more oscillations. Even simple sinusoidal seasonal model (of daily IPW values series clearly represents diversity of world climates. Residuals in periods from 10 up to 17 years are searched for some long-term IPW trend – self-evident climate change indicator. Results are ambiguous: for some stations or periods IPW trends are quite clear, the following years (or the other station not visible. Method of fitting linear trend to IPW series does not influence considerably the value of linear trend. The results are mostly influenced by series length, completeness and data (e.g. meteorological quality. The longer and more homogenous IPW series, the better chance to estimate the magnitude of climatologic IPW changes.

  11. Vegetation changes and timberline fluctuations in the Central Alps as indicators of holocene climatic oscillations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wick, L.; Tinner, W. [Univ. of Bern (Switzerland)

    1997-11-01

    Pollen and plant-macrofossil data are presented for two lakes near the timberline in the Italian (Lago Basso, 2250 m) and Swiss Central Alps (Gouille Rion, 2343 m). The reforestation at both sites started at 9700-9500 BP with Pinus cembra, Larix decidua, and Betula. The timberline reached its highest elevation between 8700 and 5000 BP and retreated after 5000 BP, due to a mid-Holocene climatic change and increasing human impact since about 3500 BP (Bronze Age). The expansion of Picea abies at Lago Basso between ca. 7500 and 6200 BP was probably favored by cold phases accompanied by increased oceanicity, whereas in the area of Gouille Rion, where spruce expanded rather late (between 4500 and 3500 BP), human influence equality might have been important. The mass expansion of Alnus viridis between ca. 5000 and 3500 BP probably can be related to both climatic change and human activity at timberline. During the early and middle Holocene a series of timberline fluctuations is recorded as declines in pollen and macrofossil concentrations of the major tree species, and as increases in nonarboreal pollen in the pollen percentage diagram of Gouille Rion. Most of the periods of low timberline can be correlated by radiocarbon dating the climatic changes in the Alps as indicated by glacier advances in combination with palynological records, solifluction, and dendroclimatical data. Lago Basso and Gouille Rion are the only sites in the Alps showing complete palaeobotanical records of cold phases between 10,000 and 2000 BP with very good time control. The altitudinal range of the Holocene treeline fluctuations caused by climate most likely was not more than 100 to 150 m. A possible correlation of a cold period at ca. 7500-6500 BP (Misox oscillation) in the Alps is made with paleoecological data from North American and Scandinavia and a climate signal in the GRIP ice core from central Greenland 8200 yr ago (ca. 7400 yr uncal. BP).

  12. Establishment of an indicator concept for the German strategy on adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoenthaler, Konstanze; Andrian-Werburg, Stefan von; Wulfert, Katrin [Bosch und Partner GmbH, Muenchen (Germany); Luthardt, Vera; Kreinsen, Beatrice; Schultz-Sternberg, R.; Hommel, Robert [Hochschule fuer Nachhaltige Entwicklung Eberswalde (Germany)

    2010-11-15

    Even if we succeed in achieving the EU target of reducing global warming to 2 C, it will be absolutely essential to adapt to changing climatic conditions. The greenhouse gases currently present in the atmosphere will influence the climate in coming decades. The day on which it is quite clear which climatic scenario prevails, so that it is possible to model all relevant processes down to regional level, will be the day on which it is too late to adapt to the actual scenario. Our endeavours to adapt to climate change do not mean, however, that we can neglect to take measures in order to reduce the output of greenhouse gases. It is important to remember that on their own, neither adaptation nor mitigation can prevent the grave impacts resulting from climate change. In fact, they complement each other meaningfully thus helping to alleviate the risks of climate change. On 17th December 2008 the German Federal Cabinet adopted the DAS (German Strategy for the Adaptation to Climate Change), (Bundesregierung 2008). The DAS has created the framework for adapting to the consequences of climate change in Germany. First and fore-most, the DAS contributes its guidelines at Federal level, to provide a guideline for agents at other levels. The Strategy lays the foundation for a medium-term process. In conjunction with the individual Federal States and other groups representing various sectors of society, the Strategy provides a step-by-step assessment of the risks of climate change. Furthermore, it states the potential requirements for action, and defines the appropriate goals and potential adaptation measures to be developed and implemented in this process. In due course, the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) will design a comprehensive set of tools to support and advance the DAS. An integral part of this will be the Special Information System 'Adaptation' (FISKA) and an Indicator System to aid adaptation. The latter is one of the key tasks identified for the DAS. As far

  13. Climate change and indicators of probable shifts in the consumption portfolios of dryland farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amjath-Babu, T.S.; Krupnik, Timothy J.; Aravindakshan, Sreejith; Arshad, Muhammad; Kaechele, Harald

    2016-01-01

    Several studies estimate the immediate impact of climate change on agricultural societies in terms of changes in crop yields or farm income, though few studies concentrate on the immediate secondary consequences of climate change. This synthetic analysis uses a set of indicators to assess the rep

  14. Climate indices for vulnerability assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Persson, Gunn; Baerring, Lars; Kjellstroem, Erik; Strandberg, Gustav; Rummuk ainen, Markku

    2007-08-15

    The demand is growing for practical information on climate projections and the impacts expected in different geographical regions and different sectors. It is a challenge to transform the vast amount of data produced in climate models into relevant information for climate change impact studies. Climate indices based on climate model data can be used as means to communicate climate change impact relations. In this report a vast amount of results is presented from a multitude of indices based on different regional climate scenarios. The regional climate scenarios described in this report show many similarities with previous scenarios in terms of general evolution and amplitude of future European climate change. The broad features are manifested in increases in warm and decreases in cold indices. Likewise are presented increases in wet indices in the north and dry indices in the south. Despite the extensive nature of the material presented, it does not cover the full range of possible climate change. We foresee a continued interactive process with stakeholders as well as continued efforts and updates of the results presented in the report.

  15. Do Himalayan treelines respond to recent climate change? An evaluation of sensitivity indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Schickhoff

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate warming is expected to induce treelines to advance to higher elevations. Empirical studies in diverse mountain ranges, however, give evidence of both advancing alpine treelines as well as rather insignificant responses. The inconsistency of findings suggests distinct differences in the sensitivity of global treelines to recent climate change. It is still unclear where Himalayan treeline ecotones are located along the response gradient from rapid dynamics to apparently complete inertia. This paper reviews the current state of knowledge regarding sensitivity and response of Himalayan treelines to climate warming, based on extensive field observations, published results in the widely scattered literature, and novel data from ongoing research of the present authors. Several sensitivity indicators such as treeline type, treeline form, seed-based regeneration, and growth patterns are evaluated. Since most Himalayan treelines are anthropogenically depressed, observed advances are largely the result of land use change. Near-natural treelines are usually krummholz treelines which are relatively unresponsive. Nevertheless, intense recruitment of treeline trees suggests a great potential for future treeline advance. Competitive abilities of seedlings within krummholz thickets and dwarf scrub heaths will be a major source of variation in treeline dynamics. Tree growth-climate relationships show mature treeline trees to be responsive to temperature change, in particular in winter and pre-monsoon seasons. High pre-monsoon temperature trends will most likely drive tree growth performance in W and central Himalaya. Ecological niche modelling suggests that bioclimatic conditions for a range expansion of treeline trees will be created during coming decades.

  16. Testing the Value of Information of Climate Change Indicators that use Earth Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, M. A.

    2012-12-01

    . Such a result would mean that the indicator has a negative value of information. Granted the value of information depends on the intended audience(s), with some groups being able to understand and want more technically sophisticated and detailed information presented as an indicator. However, if the goal of an indicator is to provide information to a wide range of groups, it is essential to assure that these groups have a correct understanding of the indicator, its assumptions, and the ability to use the indicator (as presented or modified) for decision-making contexts. In this talk, I will present the preliminary results of a study that is testing the value of information of a range of climate change indicators, and I will focus on indicators that use earth observations. Such results contribute to a richer understanding of the value of information of indicators, and can shape the development of both individual indicators and systems of indicators, such as the development of the indicator system for the U.S. Global Change Research Program, National Climate Assessment.

  17. A Framework to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change on Stream Health Indicators in Michigan Watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change is projected to alter watershed hydrology and potentially amplify nonpoint source pollution transport. These changes have implications for fish and macroinvertebrates, which are often used as measures of aquatic ecosystem health. By quantifying the risk of adverse ...

  18. Climate as an indicator

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wassink, J.

    2011-01-01

    They both have Delft roots, but their standpoints in the climate discussion are by no means similar: Professor Pier Vellinga worried publicly, whereas Professor Salle Kroonenberg qualified climate change. Strangely enough, they do agree on the solutions. “If you take a long, hard look,” Prof. Vellin

  19. A big data approach for climate change indicators processing in the CLIP-C project

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Anca, Alessandro; Conte, Laura; Palazzo, Cosimo; Fiore, Sandro; Aloisio, Giovanni

    2016-04-01

    Defining and implementing processing chains with multiple (e.g. tens or hundreds of) data analytics operators can be a real challenge in many practical scientific use cases such as climate change indicators. This is usually done via scripts (e.g. bash) on the client side and requires climate scientists to take care of, implement and replicate workflow-like control logic aspects (which may be error-prone too) in their scripts, along with the expected application-level part. Moreover, the big amount of data and the strong I/O demand pose additional challenges related to the performance. In this regard, production-level tools for climate data analysis are mostly sequential and there is a lack of big data analytics solutions implementing fine-grain data parallelism or adopting stronger parallel I/O strategies, data locality, workflow optimization, etc. High-level solutions leveraging on workflow-enabled big data analytics frameworks for eScience could help scientists in defining and implementing the workflows related to their experiments by exploiting a more declarative, efficient and powerful approach. This talk will start introducing the main needs and challenges regarding big data analytics workflow management for eScience and will then provide some insights about the implementation of some real use cases related to some climate change indicators on large datasets produced in the context of the CLIP-C project - a EU FP7 project aiming at providing access to climate information of direct relevance to a wide variety of users, from scientists to policy makers and private sector decision makers. All the proposed use cases have been implemented exploiting the Ophidia big data analytics framework. The software stack includes an internal workflow management system, which coordinates, orchestrates, and optimises the execution of multiple scientific data analytics and visualization tasks. Real-time workflow monitoring execution is also supported through a graphical user

  20. Does Change in the Arctic Sea Ice Indicate Climate Change? A Lesson Using Geospatial Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Judith K.

    2011-01-01

    The Arctic sea ice has not since melted to the 2007 extent, but annual summer melt extents do continue to be less than the decadal average. Climate fluctuations are well documented by geologic records. Averages are usually based on a minimum of 10 years of averaged data. It is typical for fluctuations to occur from year to year and season to…

  1. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate......This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...

  2. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  3. Developing fish trophic interaction indicators of climate change for the Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraus, Richard T.; Knight, Carey T.; Gorman, Ann Marie; Kocovsky, Patrick M.; Weidel, Brian C.; Rogers, Mark W.

    2016-01-01

    This project addressed regional climate change effects on aquatic food webs in the Great Lakes. We sought insights by examining Lake Erie as a representative system with a high level of anthropogenic impacts, strong nutrient gradients, seasonal hypoxia, and spatial overlap of cold- and cool-water fish guilds. In Lake Erie and in large embayments throughout the Great Lakes basin, this situation is a concern for fishery managers, as climate change may exacerbate hypoxia and reduce habitat volume for some species. We examined fish community composition, fine-scale distribution, prey availability, diets, and biochemical tracers for dominant fishes from study areas with medium-high nutrient levels (mesotrophic, Fairport study area), and low nutrient levels (oligotrophic, Erie study area). This multi-year database (2011-2013) provides the ability to contrast years with wide variation in rainfall, winter ice-cover, and thermal stratification. In addition, multiple indicators of dietary and distributional responses to environmental variability will allow resource managers to select the most informative approach for addressing specific climate change questions. Our results support the incorporation of some relatively simple and cost-efficient approaches into existing agency monitoring programs to track the near-term condition status of fish and fish community composition by functional groupings. Other metrics appear better suited for understanding longer-term changes, and may take more resources to implement on an ongoing basis. Although we hypothesized that dietary overlap and similarity in selected species would be sharply different during thermal stratification and hypoxic episodes, we found little evidence of this. Instead, to our surprise, this study found that fish tended to aggregate at the edges of hypoxia, highlighting potential spatial changes in catch efficiency of the fishery. This work has had several positive impacts on a wide range of resource management and

  4. Winter climate changes over East Asian region under RCP scenarios using East Asian winter monsoon indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Ja-Young; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Jhun, Jong-Ghap

    2017-01-01

    The changes in the winter climatology and variability of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) for the late 21st century (2070-2099) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios are projected in terms of EAWM indices (EAWMIs). Firstly, the capability of the climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating the boreal winter climatology and the interannual variability of the EAWM for the late 20th century (1971-2000) is examined. Nine of twenty-three climate models are selected based on the pattern correlations with observation and a multi-model ensemble is applied to the nine model data. Three of twelve EAWMIs that show the most significant temporal correlations between the observation and CMIP5 surface air temperatures are utilized. The ensemble CMIP5 is capable of reproducing the overall features of the EAWM in spite of some biases in the region. The negative correlations between the EAWMIs and boreal winter temperature are well reproduced and 3-5 years of the major interannual variation observed in this region are also well simulated according to power spectral analyses of the simulated indices. The fields regressed onto the indices that resemble the composite strong winter monsoon pattern are simulated more or less weakly in CMIP5 compared to the observation. However, the regressed fields of sea level pressure, surface air temperature, 500-hPa geopotential height, and 300-hPa zonal wind are well established with pattern correlations above 0.83 between CMIP5 and observation data. The differences between RCPs and Historical indicate strong warming, which increases with latitude, ranging from 1 to 5 °C under RCP4.5 and from 3 to 7 °C under RCP8.5 in the East Asian region. The anomalous southerly winds generally become stronger, implying weaker EAWMs in both scenarios. These features are also identified with fields regressed onto the indices in RCPs. The future projections reveal

  5. Winter climate changes over East Asian region under RCP scenarios using East Asian winter monsoon indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Ja-Young; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Jhun, Jong-Ghap

    2016-03-01

    The changes in the winter climatology and variability of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) for the late 21st century (2070-2099) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios are projected in terms of EAWM indices (EAWMIs). Firstly, the capability of the climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating the boreal winter climatology and the interannual variability of the EAWM for the late 20th century (1971-2000) is examined. Nine of twenty-three climate models are selected based on the pattern correlations with observation and a multi-model ensemble is applied to the nine model data. Three of twelve EAWMIs that show the most significant temporal correlations between the observation and CMIP5 surface air temperatures are utilized. The ensemble CMIP5 is capable of reproducing the overall features of the EAWM in spite of some biases in the region. The negative correlations between the EAWMIs and boreal winter temperature are well reproduced and 3-5 years of the major interannual variation observed in this region are also well simulated according to power spectral analyses of the simulated indices. The fields regressed onto the indices that resemble the composite strong winter monsoon pattern are simulated more or less weakly in CMIP5 compared to the observation. However, the regressed fields of sea level pressure, surface air temperature, 500-hPa geopotential height, and 300-hPa zonal wind are well established with pattern correlations above 0.83 between CMIP5 and observation data. The differences between RCPs and Historical indicate strong warming, which increases with latitude, ranging from 1 to 5 °C under RCP4.5 and from 3 to 7 °C under RCP8.5 in the East Asian region. The anomalous southerly winds generally become stronger, implying weaker EAWMs in both scenarios. These features are also identified with fields regressed onto the indices in RCPs. The future projections reveal

  6. Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012. An indicator-based report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-11-15

    This European Environment Agency (EEA) report presents information on past and projected climate change and related impacts in Europe, based on a range of indicators. The report also assesses the vulnerability of society, human health and ecosystems in Europe and identifies those regions in Europe most at risk from climate change. Furthermore, the report discusses the principle sources of uncertainty for the indicators and notes how monitoring and scenario development can improve our understanding of climate change, its impacts and related vulnerabilities. Some key findings: The last decade (2002-2011) was the warmest on record in Europe, with European land temperature 1.3 deg. C warmer than the pre-industrial average. Various model projections show that Europe could be 2.5-4 deg. C warmer in the later part of the 21st Century, compared to the 1961-1990 average. Heat waves have increased in frequency and length, causing tens of thousands of deaths over the last decade. The projected increase in heat waves could increase the number of related deaths over the next decades, unless societies adapt, the report says. However, cold-related deaths are projected to decrease in many countries. While precipitation is decreasing in southern regions, it is increasing in northern Europe, the report says. These trends are projected to continue. Climate change is projected to increase river flooding, particularly in northern Europe, as higher temperatures intensify the water cycle. However, it is difficult to discern the influence of climate change in flooding data records for the past. River flow droughts appear to have become more severe and frequent in southern Europe. Minimum river flows are projected to decrease significantly in summer in southern Europe but also in many other parts of Europe to varying degrees. The Arctic is warming faster than other regions. Record low sea ice was observed in the Arctic in 2007, 2011 and 2012, falling to roughly half the minimum extent seen

  7. Do Himalayan treelines respond to recent climate change? An evaluation of sensitivity indicators

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Climate warming is expected to induce treelines to advance to higher elevations. Empirical studies in diverse mountain ranges, however, give evidence of both advancing alpine treelines and rather insignificant responses. The inconsistency of findings suggests distinct differences in the sensitivity of global treelines to recent climate change. It is still unclear where Himalayan treeline ecotones are located along the response gradient from rapid dynamics to apparently compl...

  8. Do Himalayan treelines respond to recent climate change? An evaluation of sensitivity indicators

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    Climate warming is expected to induce treelines to advance to higher elevations. Empirical studies in diverse mountain ranges, however, give evidence of both advancing alpine treelines as well as rather insignificant responses. The inconsistency of findings suggests distinct differences in the sensitivity of global treelines to recent climate change. It is still unclear where Himalayan treeline ecotones are located along the response gradient from rapid dynamics ...

  9. Exploring climate change vulnerability across sectors and scenarios using indicators of impacts and coping capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunford, R; Harrison, P A; Jäger, J; Rounsevell, M D A; Tinch, R

    Addressing climate change vulnerability requires an understanding of both the level of climate impacts and the capacity of the exposed population to cope. This study developed a methodology for allowing users to explore vulnerability to changes in ecosystem services as a result of climatic and socio-economic changes. It focuses on the vulnerability of Europe across multiple sectors by combining the outputs of a regional integrated assessment (IA) model, the CLIMSAVE IA Platform, with maps of coping capacity based on the five capitals approach. The presented methodology enables stakeholder-derived socio-economic futures to be represented within a quantitative integrated modelling framework in a way that changes spatially and temporally with the socio-economic storyline. Vulnerability was mapped for six key ecosystem services in 40 combined climate and socio-economic scenarios. The analysis shows that, whilst the north and west of Europe are generally better placed to cope with climate impacts than the south and east, coping could be improved in all areas. Furthermore, whilst the lack of coping capacity in dystopian scenarios often leads to greater vulnerability, there are complex interactions between sectors that lead to patterns of vulnerability that vary spatially, with scenario and by sector even within the more utopian futures.

  10. The age of geothermal waters of Serbia as an indicator of climatic changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milivojević Mihailo G.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Climatic changes influence on surface water resources directly and in that way, more or less, more quickly or more slowly, by means of waterfalls, the quantity and quality of ground waters or hydrogeological resources, namely their sustenation. The conclusion about the influence of climatic changes on ground waters can be drawn on the basis of isotope research (2H, 14C by means of which their origin and age are determined most reliably. Present investigation results of the origin and age of ground water resources at the most famous hydrogeothermal regions, as well as the sustenance forecast of their quality and reserves depending on still existing and future climatic changes will be shown in this paper.

  11. GPS IPW as a Meteorological Parameter and Climate Global Change Indicator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruczyk, M.; Liwosz, T.

    2011-12-01

    Paper focuses on comprehensive investigation of the GPS derived IPW (Integrated Precipitable Water, also IWV) as a geophysical tool. GPS meteorology is now widely acknowledged indirect method of atmosphere sensing. First we demonstrate GPS IPW quality. Most thorough inter-technique comparisons of directly measured IPW are attainable only for some observatories (note modest percentage of GPS stations equipped with meteorological devices). Nonetheless we have managed to compare IPW series derived from GPS tropospheric solutions (ZTD mostly from IGS and EPN solutions) and some independent techniques. IPW values from meteorological sources we used are: radiosoundings, sun photometer and input fields of numerical weather prediction model. We can treat operational NWP models as meteorological database within which we can calculate IWV for all GPS stations independently from network of direct measurements (COSMO-LM model maintained by Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management was tried). Sunphotometer (CIMEL-318, Central Geophysical Observatory IGF PAS, Belsk, Poland) data seems the most genuine source - so we decided for direct collocation of GPS measurements and sunphotometer placing permanent GPS receiver on the roof of Belsk Observatory. Next we analyse IPW as geophysical parameter: IPW demonstrates some physical effects evoked by station location (height and series correlation coefficient as a function of distance) and weather patterns like dominant wind directions (in case of neighbouring stations). Deficiency of surface humidity data to model IPW is presented for different climates. This inadequacy and poor humidity data representation in NWP model extremely encourages investigating information exchange potential between Numerical Model and GPS network. The second and most important aspect of this study concerns long series of IPW (daily averaged) which can serve as climatological information indicator (water vapour role in climate system is hard to

  12. Flora of the forests as the indicator of climate change of Baikal Region (South Siberia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krivobokov, Leonid; Anenkhonov, Oleg

    2010-05-01

    proportions 8.5, 10.4, and 7.8%, respectively. Relationships between the ranks of activity and species richness of zonal groups in the cenofloras were analyzed. In each cenoflora, parameters of activity (R) for constituent zonal groups were calculated. Zonal groups class intervals using the resultant R values and data on species richness were calculated too. In the cenoflora of class Rhytidio-Laricetea, these ranks coincided in the dark coniferous, preboreal, light coniferous, and forest-steppe groups, while in the mountain steppe and true steppe groups, the rank of species richness exceeded the rank of activity. We consider that certain conditions unfavorable for the last groups developed in the ecotopes of this cenoflora in the near past, and this was the result of decreasing the activity of mountain steppe and true steppe species in light coniferous forests. The observed tendencies of changes in the composition of cenofloras indicate that climate in the lower band of mountain slopes is becoming more humid, which may be explained by an increase in the amount of precipitation. In addition, moisture supply to habitats increases due to increasing degradation (thawing) of permafrost. In the cenoflora of class Vaccinio-Piceetea, the ranks of activity and species richness coincided in all zonal groups. This may be regarded as evidence that this cenoflora has existed for a long time under relatively stable climatic conditions. Such favorable conditions lead to absence of displacement of any species groups. Our study showed that current climate change has now the influence on the vegetation of lower parts of forest belt of South Siberia.

  13. Evaluating the influence of long term historical climate change on catchment hydrology – using drought and flood indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Refsgaard

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This study uses a 133 yr data set from the 1055 km2 Skjern River catchment in a western Danish catchment to evaluate: long-term past climate changes in the area; the capability of a conceptual hydrological model NAM to simulate climate change impacts on river discharge; and the occurrences of droughts and floods in a changing climate. The degree of change in the climatic variables is examined using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. During the last 133 yr the area has experienced a significant change in precipitation of 46% and a temperature change of 1.3 °C leading to (simulated increases in discharge of 103% and groundwater recharge of 172%. Only a small part of the past climatic changes was found to be correlated to the climatic drivers: NAO, SCA and AMO. The NAM model was calibrated on the period 1961–1970 and showed generally an excellent match between simulated and observed discharge. The capability of the hydrological model to predict climate change impact was investigated by looking at performances outside the calibration period. The results showed a reduced model fit, especially for the modern time periods (after the 1970s, and not all hydrological changes could be explained. This might indicate that hydrological models cannot be expected to predict climate change impacts on discharge as accurately in the future, as they perform under present conditions, where they can be calibrated. The (simulated stream discharge was subsequently analyzed using flood and drought indices based on the threshold method. The extreme signal was found to depend highly on the period chosen as reference to normal. The analysis, however, indicated enhanced amplitude of the hydrograph towards the drier extremes superimposed on the overall discharge increase leading to more relative drought periods.

  14. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathwa

  15. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... events, such as hurricanes and wildfires. These can cause death, injuries, stress, and mental health problems. Researchers are studying the best ways to lessen climate change and reduce its impact on our health. NIH: ...

  16. Likely changes in growing season indices under a climate change scenario for crop production in South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ambrosino, C.; Chandler, R. E.; Todd, M. C.

    2011-12-01

    Agriculture is still the major source of income and livelihood for most of South Africa's population, and cereals and grains are among the country's most important crops. In particular, the largest locally produced field crop and the most important source of carbohydrates in South Africa is maize (Zea mays L.). As well as extensive monoculture, maize production also dominates the smallholder farming system in areas such as the Limpopo District in north-east South Africa. It is therefore critical to understand the year-to-year changes in the planting season and rainfall characteristics in order to introduce management decision and mitigation measures in the agricultural sector (e.g. planting of drought-resistant crops or the choice between long and short-season cultivars). Indeed, one of the strategies that may be easily introduced by farmers is shifting the crop planting dates to adjust to changes in the rainfall regimes. The study presented here aims to characterise the inter-annual growing season variability through the use of 7 indices derived from daily precipitation, considered the most critical factor in rain-fed agriculture, having an impact on maize production. A statistical model is developed to generate daily rainfall sequences for the study area driven by large scale climate controls. An independent validation period is chosen to evaluate the performance of the statistical model in the rainfall generation process. Onset, length and cessation of the growing season, as well as indices representing the length of the mean and maximum dry spell during the season are derived from the area average daily simulated precipitation values. The fraction of rainy days and total precipitation during the growing season are also calculated. Finally, the projected change of the growing season indices between two investigated periods in the 20th and 21st centuries is investigated under a climate change scenario (a1b; e.g.: Fig.1). The outputs of this study may be used to

  17. Effect of climate change on environmental flow indicators in the Narew Basin, Poland

    OpenAIRE

    Piniewski, Mikolaj; Laize, Cedric L.R.; Acreman, Michael C.; Okruszko, Tomasz; Schneider, Christof

    2014-01-01

    Environmental flows—the quantity of water required to maintain a river ecosystem in its desired state—are of particular importance in areas of high natural value. Water-dependent ecosystems are exposed to the risk of climate change through altered precipitation and evaporation. Rivers in the Narew basin in northeastern Poland are known for their valuable river and wetland ecosystems, many of them in pristine or near-pristine condition. The objective of this study was to assess changes in the ...

  18. Using an integrated hydrological model to estimate the usefulness of meteorological drought indices in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Gunten, Diane; Wöhling, Thomas; Haslauer, Claus P.; Merchán, Daniel; Causapé, Jesus; Cirpka, Olaf A.

    2016-10-01

    Droughts are serious natural hazards, especially in semi-arid regions. They are also difficult to characterize. Various summary metrics representing the dryness level, denoted drought indices, have been developed to quantify droughts. They typically lump meteorological variables and can thus directly be computed from the outputs of regional climate models in climate-change assessments. While it is generally accepted that drought risks in semi-arid climates will increase in the future, quantifying this increase using climate model outputs is a complex process that depends on the choice and the accuracy of the drought indices, among other factors. In this study, we compare seven meteorological drought indices that are commonly used to predict future droughts. Our goal is to assess the reliability of these indices to predict hydrological impacts of droughts under changing climatic conditions at the annual timescale. We simulate the hydrological responses of a small catchment in northern Spain to droughts in present and future climate, using an integrated hydrological model calibrated for different irrigation scenarios. We compute the correlation of meteorological drought indices with the simulated hydrological time series (discharge, groundwater levels, and water deficit) and compare changes in the relationships between hydrological variables and drought indices. While correlation coefficients linked with a specific drought index are similar for all tested land uses and climates, the relationship between drought indices and hydrological variables often differs between present and future climate. Drought indices based solely on precipitation often underestimate the hydrological impacts of future droughts, while drought indices that additionally include potential evapotranspiration sometimes overestimate the drought effects. In this study, the drought indices with the smallest bias were the rainfall anomaly index, the reconnaissance drought index, and the standardized

  19. Simulated discharge trends indicate robustness of hydrological models in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addor, Nans; Nikolova, Silviya; Seibert, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Assessing the robustness of hydrological models under contrasted climatic conditions should be part any hydrological model evaluation. Robust models are particularly important for climate impact studies, as models performing well under current conditions are not necessarily capable of correctly simulating hydrological perturbations caused by climate change. A pressing issue is the usually assumed stationarity of parameter values over time. Modeling experiments using conceptual hydrological models revealed that assuming transposability of parameters values in changing climatic conditions can lead to significant biases in discharge simulations. This raises the question whether parameter values should to be modified over time to reflect changes in hydrological processes induced by climate change. Such a question denotes a focus on the contribution of internal processes (i.e., catchment processes) to discharge generation. Here we adopt a different perspective and explore the contribution of external forcing (i.e., changes in precipitation and temperature) to changes in discharge. We argue that in a robust hydrological model, discharge variability should be induced by changes in the boundary conditions, and not by changes in parameter values. In this study, we explore how well the conceptual hydrological model HBV captures transient changes in hydrological signatures over the period 1970-2009. Our analysis focuses on research catchments in Switzerland undisturbed by human activities. The precipitation and temperature forcing are extracted from recently released 2km gridded data sets. We use a genetic algorithm to calibrate HBV for the whole 40-year period and for the eight successive 5-year periods to assess eventual trends in parameter values. Model calibration is run multiple times to account for parameter uncertainty. We find that in alpine catchments showing a significant increase of winter discharge, this trend can be captured reasonably well with constant

  20. Collective behaviour of climate indices in the North Pacific air-sea system and its potential relationships with decadal climate changes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Xiao-Juan; Zhi Rong; He Wen-Ping; Gong Zhi-Qiang

    2012-01-01

    A climate network of six climate indices of the North Pacific air-sea system is constructed during the period of 1948-2009.In order to find out the inherent relationship between the intrinsic mechanism of climate index network and the important climate shift,the synchronization behaviour and the coupling behaviour of these indices are investigated.Results indicate that climate network synchronization happened around the beginning of the 1960s,in the middle of the 1970s and at the beginnings of the 1990s and the 2000s separately.These synchronization states were always followed by the decrease of the coupling coefficient.Each synchronization of the network was well associated with the abrupt phase or trend changes of annually accumulated abnormal vaiues of North Pacific sea-surface temperature and 500-hPa height,among which the one that happened in the middle of the 1970s is the most noticeable climate shift.We can also obtain this mysterious shift from the first mode of the empirical orthogonal function of six indices.That is to say,abrupt climate shift in North Pacific air-sea system is not only shown by the phase or trend changes of climate indices,but also night be indicated by the synchronizing and the coupling of climate indices.Furthermore,at the turning point of 1975,there are also abrupt correlation changes in the yearly mode of spatial degree distribution of the sea surface temperature and 500-hPa height in the region of the North Pacific,which further proves the probability of climate index synchronization and coupling shift in air-sea systems.

  1. Climatic changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    According to Cleo Paskal climatic changes are environmental changes. They are global, but their impact is local, and manifests them selves in the landscape, in our cities, in open urban spaces, and in everyday life. The landscape and open public spaces will in many cases be the sites where...... measurements to handle climatic changes will be positioned and enacted. Measurements taken are mostly adaptive or aimed to secure and protect existing values, buildings, infrastructure etc., but will in many cases also affects functions, meaning and peoples identification with the landscape and the open urban...... be addressed in order to develop and support social sustainability and identification. This paper explore and discuss how the handling of climatic changes in landscape and open urban spaces might hold a potential for them to become common goods....

  2. Prioritizing key resilience indicators to support coral reef management in a changing climate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim R McClanahan

    Full Text Available Managing coral reefs for resilience to climate change is a popular concept but has been difficult to implement because the empirical scientific evidence has either not been evaluated or is sometimes unsupportive of theory, which leads to uncertainty when considering methods and identifying priority reefs. We asked experts and reviewed the scientific literature for guidance on the multiple physical and biological factors that affect the ability of coral reefs to resist and recover from climate disturbance. Eleven key factors to inform decisions based on scaling scientific evidence and the achievability of quantifying the factors were identified. Factors important to resistance and recovery, which are important components of resilience, were not strongly related, and should be assessed independently. The abundance of resistant (heat-tolerant coral species and past temperature variability were perceived to provide the greatest resistance to climate change, while coral recruitment rates, and macroalgae abundance were most influential in the recovery process. Based on the 11 key factors, we tested an evidence-based framework for climate change resilience in an Indonesian marine protected area. The results suggest our evidence-weighted framework improved upon existing un-weighted methods in terms of characterizing resilience and distinguishing priority sites. The evaluation supports the concept that, despite high ecological complexity, relatively few strong variables can be important in influencing ecosystem dynamics. This is the first rigorous assessment of factors promoting coral reef resilience based on their perceived importance, empirical evidence, and feasibility of measurement. There were few differences between scientists' perceptions of factor importance and the scientific evidence found in journal publications but more before and after impact studies will be required to fully test the validity of all the factors. The methods here will

  3. Prioritizing key resilience indicators to support coral reef management in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClanahan, Tim R; Donner, Simon D; Maynard, Jeffrey A; MacNeil, M Aaron; Graham, Nicholas A J; Maina, Joseph; Baker, Andrew C; Alemu I, Jahson B; Beger, Maria; Campbell, Stuart J; Darling, Emily S; Eakin, C Mark; Heron, Scott F; Jupiter, Stacy D; Lundquist, Carolyn J; McLeod, Elizabeth; Mumby, Peter J; Paddack, Michelle J; Selig, Elizabeth R; van Woesik, Robert

    2012-01-01

    Managing coral reefs for resilience to climate change is a popular concept but has been difficult to implement because the empirical scientific evidence has either not been evaluated or is sometimes unsupportive of theory, which leads to uncertainty when considering methods and identifying priority reefs. We asked experts and reviewed the scientific literature for guidance on the multiple physical and biological factors that affect the ability of coral reefs to resist and recover from climate disturbance. Eleven key factors to inform decisions based on scaling scientific evidence and the achievability of quantifying the factors were identified. Factors important to resistance and recovery, which are important components of resilience, were not strongly related, and should be assessed independently. The abundance of resistant (heat-tolerant) coral species and past temperature variability were perceived to provide the greatest resistance to climate change, while coral recruitment rates, and macroalgae abundance were most influential in the recovery process. Based on the 11 key factors, we tested an evidence-based framework for climate change resilience in an Indonesian marine protected area. The results suggest our evidence-weighted framework improved upon existing un-weighted methods in terms of characterizing resilience and distinguishing priority sites. The evaluation supports the concept that, despite high ecological complexity, relatively few strong variables can be important in influencing ecosystem dynamics. This is the first rigorous assessment of factors promoting coral reef resilience based on their perceived importance, empirical evidence, and feasibility of measurement. There were few differences between scientists' perceptions of factor importance and the scientific evidence found in journal publications but more before and after impact studies will be required to fully test the validity of all the factors. The methods here will increase the feasibility

  4. Archaeological and palaeoecological indications of an abrupt climate change in The Netherlands, and evidence for climatological teleconnections around 2650 BP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    VanGeel, B; Buurman, J; Waterbolk, HT

    1996-01-01

    A sudden and sharp rise in the C-14 content of the atmosphere, which occurred between ca. 850 and 760 calendar yr BC (ca. 2750-2450 BP on the radiocarbon time-scale), was contemporaneous with an abrupt climate change. In northwest Europe (as indicated by palaeoecological and geological evidence) cli

  5. Using NASA Earth Science Datasets for National Climate Assessment Indicators: Urban Impacts of Heat Waves Associated with Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadoff, N.; Weber, S.; Zell, E. R.; de Sherbinin, A. M.

    2014-12-01

    Climate-induced heat waves have been increasing globally in the past 5-10 years and are projected to continue increasing throughout the 21st century. In urban areas, heat waves are exacerbated by the non-climate stressor of urban heat islands (UHIs). The vulnerability of a city's population to heat waves reflects exposure to extreme heat events, sensitivity of the population to impacts, such as adverse health effects, and adaptive capacity to prepare for and respond to heat waves. Socially and economically vulnerable populations are especially at risk to the impacts of heat waves, due to increasing energy costs, air pollution, and heat-related illness and mortality. NASA earth science datasets, combined with socioeconomic data, can be used to create indicators that characterize vulnerability to urban heat events and address the effectiveness of adaptation measures designed to reduce local temperatures. The indicator development process should include engagement from local stakeholders and end users from the onset to ensure local relevance and, ultimately, indicator uptake and sustainability. This presentation will explore the process of working with urban stakeholders in Philadelphia to develop a set of policy-relevant, interdisciplinary vulnerability indicators focused on extreme heat events in urban areas. Ambient and land surface temperature, land cover classifications, NDVI, and US Census data are used to create a basket of indicators that reflect urban heat wave duration and intensity, UHI exposure, socioeconomic vulnerability, and adaptation effectiveness. These indicators can be assessed at the city level and also comparatively among different parts of a city to help quantify and track heat wave impacts on vulnerable populations and the effectiveness of adaptation measures.

  6. Middle Pleistocene Climate Change in the Colorado Rocky Mountains Indicated by Fossil Mammals from Porcupine Cave

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, David L.; Barnosky, Anthony D.

    1994-05-01

    Fossiliferous sediments from The Pit Locality in Porcupine Cave, Park County, Colorado, span multiple glacial and interglacial cycles between ca. 800,000 and 400,000 yr B.P. at 2900 m elevation. The uppermost cycle probably represents oxygenisotope glacial Stage 12 (stratigraphic Levels 4 and 3) and interglacial Stage 11 (Levels 3, 2, and 1) as determined by arvicoline biostratigraphic data that place the sequence between 487,000 and 365,000 yr B.P. A no-analog assemblage comprising the bog lemming Mictomys meltoni (of the M. borealis lineage) and the sagebrush vole Lemmiscus curtatus (= Lagurus curtatus) characterizes both the glacial and the interglacial deposits. Climatographs for these two species suggest that, compared to present conditions, the following local climatic limits can be imposed on oxygenisotope Stages 12 and 11: (1) January effective moisture was greater, resulting from average temperatures of at least 5°C cooler and/or at least 15 mm more precipitation; (2) January solar radiation was lower by at least 75 Langleys; (3) effective July solar radiation might have been lower by at least 50 Langleys. Seasonal temperature extremes were not necessarily different from those of the present, but seasonal precipitation was more equable. Relative abundance of mammal taxa and sedimentological data indicate that aridity increased at the onset of the interglacial.

  7. WOOD ANATOMICAL STUDY AMONG THREE ECOTYPES OF Pinus merkusii IN SUMATRA AND THE POTENTIAL AS CLIMATE CHANGE INDICATOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yulia Sandri

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Recently, climate change is the one of most important environmental issue. Climate variability can be recorded by tree growing through the growth ring. Growth ring formed by cambial activity were examined in wood anatomy. In Sumatra, there are three ecotypes Pinus merkusii, namely ecotypes Kerinci, Tapanuli, and Aceh which can be distinguished morphologically. This study aims to knowing the wood anatomical characteristics of the three ecotypes and determine the potential as climate indicator. This study was conducted in October 2014 until June 2015. Sample of Kerinci ecotype was collected in Kerinci Seblat National Park, Tapanuli ecotype in Dolok Sibualbuali Natural Reserve and Aceh ecotype in Gunung Leuser National Park on a height of 130 cm using increment borer and cut on the main stem 5×5 cm for anatomical sample. Results from this study indicate that ecotype Kerinci and Tapanuli showed earlywood and latewood boundary exposing the clear growth ring, whereas in Aceh ecotype unclear. Tapanuli ecotype have the thickest tracheid diameter than ecotype Kerinci and Aceh. Ecotypes of Kerinci, Tapanuli, and Aceh has homoceluler and uniseriate ray where Aceh ecotype have the longest ray. Furthermore, Kerinci and Tapanuli ecotype have potential as climate indicator eventhough showed negative correlation, that Tapanuli ecotype show the best result and recommended in dendrochronology study.

  8. Evaluation of drought indices at interannual to climate change timescales: a case study over the Amazon and Mississippi river basins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Joetzjer

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The present study compares three meteorological drought indices (scPDSI, SPI and SPEI respectively and their ability to account for the variations of annual mean river discharge on both interannual and climate change timescales. The Standardized Runoff Index (SRI is used as a proxy of river discharge. The Mississippi and Amazon river basins provide two contrasted testbeds for this analysis. All meteorological drought indices are derived from monthly 2-meter temperature and/or precipitation, using either gridded observations or outputs of a global climate model. The SPI based solely on precipitation is not outperformed by the SPEI (accounting for potential evapotranspiration and the scPDSI (based on a simplified water balance at detecting interannual SRI variations. Under increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, the simulated response of the areal fraction in drought is highly index-dependent, suggesting that more physical water balance models are needed to account for the impact of global warming on hydrological droughts.

  9. The Use of Oceanic Indices Variations Due to Climate Change to Predict Annual Discharge Variations in Northeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berton, R.; Shaw, S. B.; Chandler, D. G.; Driscoll, C. T.

    2014-12-01

    Climatic change affects streamflow in watersheds with winter snowpack and an annual snowmelt hydrograph. In the northeastern US, changes in streamflow are driven by both the advanced timing of snowmelt and increasing summer precipitation. Projections of climate for the region in the 21st century is for warmer winters and wetter summers. Water planners need to understand future changes in flow metrics to determine if the current water resources are capable of fulfilling future demands or adapting to future changes in climate. The study of teleconnection patterns between oceanic indices variations and hydrologic variables may help improve the understanding of future water resources conditions in a watershed. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the correlation between oceanic indices and discharge variations in the Merrimack Watershed. The Merrimack Watershed is the fourth largest basin in New England which drains much of New Hampshire and northeastern portions of Massachusetts, USA. Variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) are defined by the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), respectively. We hypothesize that temporal changes in discharge are related to AMO and NAO variations since precipitation and discharge are highly correlated in the Merrimack. The Merrimack Watershed consists of undisturbed (reference) catchments and disturbed (developed) basins with long stream gauge records (> 100 years). Developed basins provide an opportunity to evaluate the impacts of river regulation and land development on teleconnection patterns as well as changing climate. Time series of AMO and NAO indices over the past 150 years along with Merrimack annual precipitation and discharge time series have shown a 1 to 2-year watershed hydrologic memory; higher correlation between Merrimack‎ annual precipitation and discharge with AMO and NAO are observed when a 1 to 2-year lag is given to AMO and NAO

  10. Indicators for Assessing Climate Change Resilience Resulting from Emplacement of Green Infrastructure Projects Across an Urban Landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parish, E. S.; Omitaomu, O.; Sylvester, L.; Nugent, P.

    2015-12-01

    Many U.S. cities are exploring the potential of using green infrastructure (e.g., porous pavements, green roofs, street planters) to reduce urban storm water runoff, which can be both be a nuisance and costly to treat. While tools exist to measure local runoff changes resulting from individual green infrastructure (GI) projects, most municipalities currently have no method of analyzing the collective impact of GI projects on urban stormwater systems under future rainfall scenarios and impervious surface distribution patterns. Using the mid-sized city of Knoxville, Tennessee as a case study, we propose a set of indicators that can be used to monitor and analyze the collective effects of GI emplacement on urban storm water runoff volumes as well as to quantify potential co-benefits of GI projects (e.g., urban heat island reduction, reduced stream scouring) under different climate projection ensembles and population growth scenarios. These indicators are intended to help the city prioritize GI projects as opportunities arise, as well as to track the effectiveness of GI implementation over time. We explore the aggregation of these indicators across different spatial scales (e.g., plot, neighborhood, watershed, city) in order to assess potential changes in climate change resilience resulting from the collective implementation of GI projects across an urban landscape.

  11. Remotely-Sensed Urban Wet-Landscapes AN Indicator of Coupled Effects of Human Impact and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Wei

    2016-06-01

    This study proposes the concept of urban wet-landscapes (loosely-defined wetlands) as against dry-landscapes (mainly impervious surfaces). The study is to examine whether the dynamics of urban wet-landscapes is a sensitive indicator of the coupled effects of the two major driving forces of urban landscape change - human built-up impact and climate (precipitation) variation. Using a series of satellite images, the study was conducted in the Kansas City metropolitan area of the United States. A rule-based classification algorithm was developed to identify fine-scale, hidden wetlands that could not be appropriately detected based on their spectral differentiability by a traditional image classification. The spatial analyses of wetland changes were implemented at the scales of metropolitan, watershed, and sub-watershed as well as based on the size of surface water bodies in order to reveal urban wetland change trends in relation to the driving forces. The study identified that wet-landscape dynamics varied in trend and magnitude from the metropolitan, watersheds, to sub-watersheds. The study also found that increased precipitation in the region in the past decades swelled larger wetlands in particular while smaller wetlands decreased mainly due to human development activities. These findings suggest that wet-landscapes, as against the dry-landscapes, can be a more effective indicator of the coupled effects of human impact and climate change.

  12. Framework for Probabilistic Projections of Energy-Relevant Streamflow Indicators under Climate Change Scenarios for the U.S.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wagener, Thorsten [Univ. of Bristol (United Kingdom); Mann, Michael [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States); Crane, Robert [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States)

    2014-04-29

    This project focuses on uncertainty in streamflow forecasting under climate change conditions. The objective is to develop easy to use methodologies that can be applied across a range of river basins to estimate changes in water availability for realistic projections of climate change. There are three major components to the project: Empirical downscaling of regional climate change projections from a range of Global Climate Models; Developing a methodology to use present day information on the climate controls on the parameterizations in streamflow models to adjust the parameterizations under future climate conditions (a trading-space-for-time approach); and Demonstrating a bottom-up approach to establishing streamflow vulnerabilities to climate change. The results reinforce the need for downscaling of climate data for regional applications, and further demonstrates the challenges of using raw GCM data to make local projections. In addition, it reinforces the need to make projections across a range of global climate models. The project demonstrates the potential for improving streamflow forecasts by using model parameters that are adjusted for future climate conditions, but suggests that even with improved streamflow models and reduced climate uncertainty through the use of downscaled data, there is still large uncertainty is the streamflow projections. The most useful output from the project is the bottom-up vulnerability driven approach to examining possible climate and land use change impacts on streamflow. Here, we demonstrate an inexpensive and easy to apply methodology that uses Classification and Regression Trees (CART) to define the climate and environmental parameters space that can produce vulnerabilities in the system, and then feeds in the downscaled projections to determine the probability top transitioning to a vulnerable sate. Vulnerabilities, in this case, are defined by the end user.

  13. Abrupt Climate Change around 4 ka BP:Role of the Thermohaline Circulation as Indicated by a GCM Experiment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王绍武; 周天军; 蔡静宁; 朱锦红; 谢志辉; 龚道溢

    2004-01-01

    A great deal of palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic evidence suggests that a predominant temperature drop and an aridification occurred at ca. 4.0 ka BP. Palaeoclimate studies in China support this dedution. The collapse of ancient civilizations at ca. 4.0 ka BP in the Nile Valley and Mesopotamia has been attributed to climate-induced aridification. A widespread alternation of the ancient cultures was also found in China at ca. 4.0 ka BP in concert with the collapse of the civilizations in the Old World. Palaeoclimatic studies indicate that the abrupt climate change at 4.0 ka BP is one of the realizations of the cold phase in millennial scale climate oscillations, which may be related to the modulation of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) over the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, this study conducts a numerical experiment of a GCM with SST forcing to simulate the impact of the weakening of the THC. Results show a drop in temperature from North Europe, the northern middle East Asia, and northern East Asia and a significant reduction of precipitation in East Africa, the Middle East, the Indian Peninsula, and the Yellow River Valley. This seems to support the idea that coldness and aridification at ca. 4.0 ka BP was caused by the weakening of the THC.

  14. Flood basalt hosted palaeosols:Potential palaeoclimatic indicators of global climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    M.R.G. Sayyed

    2014-01-01

    Since continental sediments (in addition to the marine geological record) offer important means of deciphering environmental changes, the sediments hosted by the successive flows of the continental flood basalt provinces of the world should be treasure houses in gathering the palaeoclimatic data. Palaeosols developed on top of basalt flows are potentially ideal for palaeoenvironmental reconstructions because it is easy to determine their protolith geochemistry and also they define a definite time interval. The present paper summarizes the nature of the basalt-hosted palaeosols formed on the flood basalts provinces from different parts of the globe having different ages.

  15. Understanding Climate Change Impacts in a Cholera Endemic Megacity: Disease Trends, Hydroclimatic Indicators and Near Future-Term Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S. S.; Hasan, M. A.; Serman, E. A.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

    2015-12-01

    The last three decades of surveillance data shows a drastic increase of cholera prevalence in the largest cholera-endemic city in the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh. While an endemic trend is getting stronger in the dry season, the post-monsoon season shows increased variability and is epidemic in nature. The pre-monsoon dry season is becoming the dominant cholera season of the year, followed by monsoon flood related propagation in later months of the year. Although the heavily populated and rapidly urbanizing Dhaka region has experienced noticeable shifts in pre monsoon temperature and precipitation patterns and subsequent monsoon variations, to date, there has not been any systematic study on linking the long-term disease trends with observed changes in hydroclimatic indicators. Here, we focus on the past 30-year dynamics of urban cholera prevalence in Dhaka with changes in climatic or anthropogenic forcings to develop projections for the next 30-year period. We focus on the dry and the wet season indicators individually, and develop trends of maximum rainfall intensity, lowest rainfall totals in the pre-monsoon period, number of consecutive dry days, number of wet days, and number of rainy days with greater than 500mm rainfall using a recently developed gridded data product - and compare with regional hydrology, flooding, water usage, changes in distribution systems, population growth and density in urban settlements, and frequency of natural disasters. We then use a bias correction method to develop the next 30 years projections of CMIP5 Regional Climate Model outputs and impacts on cholera prevalence using a probabilistic forecasting approach.

  16. Olive response to water availability: yield response functions, soil water content indicators and evaluation of adaptability to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riccardi, Maria; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Basile, Angelo; Bonfante, Antonello; Menenti, Massimo; Monaco, Eugenia; De Lorenzi, Francesca

    2013-04-01

    Climate evolution, with the foreseen increase of temperature and frequency of drought events during the summer, could cause significant changes in the availability of water resources specially in the Mediterranean region. European countries need to encourage sustainable agriculture practices, reducing inputs, especially of water, and minimizing any negative impact on crop quantity and quality. Olive is an important crop in the Mediterranean region that has traditionally been cultivated with no irrigation and is known to attain acceptable production under dry farming. Therefore this crop will not compete for foreseen reduced water resources. However, a good quantitative knowledge must be available about effects of reduced precipitation and water availability on yield. Yield response functions, coupled with indicators of soil water availability, provide a quantitative description of the cultivar- specific behavior in relation to hydrological conditions. Yield response functions of 11 olive cultivars, typical of Mediterranean environment, were determined using experimental data (unpublished or reported in scientific literature). The yield was expressed as relative yield (Yr); the soil water availability was described by means of different indicators: relative soil water deficit (RSWD), relative evapotranspiration (RED) and transpiration deficit (RTD). Crops can respond nonlinearly to changes in their growing conditions and exhibit threshold responses, so for the yield functions of each olive cultivar both linear regression and threshold-slope models were considered to evaluate the best fit. The level of relative yield attained in rain-fed conditions was identified and defined as the acceptable yield level (Yrrainfed). The value of the indicator (RSWD, RED and RTD) corresponding to Yrrainfed was determined for each cultivar and indicated as the critical value of water availability. The error in the determination of the critical value was estimated. By means of a

  17. Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    According to the National Academy of Sciences in American,the Earth's surface temperature has risen by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated warming during the past two decades. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.Human activities have altered the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases-primarily carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The heat-trapping property of these gases is undisputed although uncertainties exist about exactly how earth's climate responds to them.

  18. Climate Change Schools Project...

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinzey, Krista

    2010-01-01

    This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools Project…

  19. Climate Change Schools Project...

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinzey, Krista

    2010-01-01

    This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools…

  20. Greenland climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Swingedouw, D.; Landais, A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate archives available from deep-sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that during the last decade (2000s...... regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. The magnitude and rate of future changes in Greenland temperature, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, may be faster than any past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Projections indicate that within one century Greenland may......), atmospheric and sea-surface temperatures are reaching levels last encountered millennia ago when northern high latitude summer insolation was higher due to a different orbital configuration. Concurrently, records from lake sediments in southern Greenland document major environmental and climatic conditions...

  1. Learning Progressions & Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Joyce M.; de los Santos, Elizabeth X.; Anderson, Charles W.

    2015-01-01

    Our society is currently having serious debates about sources of energy and global climate change. But do students (and the public) have the requisite knowledge to engage these issues as informed citizenry? The learning-progression research summarized here indicates that only 10% of high school students typically have a level of understanding…

  2. CLIMATE CHANGE, Change International Negociations?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Xiaosheng

    2009-01-01

    @@ Climate change is one of key threats to human beings who have to deal with.According to Bali Action Plan released after the 2007 Bali Climate Talk held in Indonesia,the United Nations Framework on Climate Change(UNFCCC) has launched a two-year process to negotiate a post-2012 climate arrangement after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 and the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference will seal a final deal on post-2012 climate regime in December,2009.For this,the United Nation Chief Ban Ki Moon called 2009"the year ofclimate change".

  3. Poverty and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vink, G.; Franco, E.; Fuckar, N. S.; Kalmbach, E. R.; Kayatta, E.; Lankester, K.; Rothschild, R. E.; Sarma, A.; Wall, M. L.

    2008-05-01

    The poor are disproportionately vulnerable to environmental change because they have the least amount of resources with which to adapt, and they live in areas (e.g. flood plains, low-lying coastal areas, and marginal drylands) that are particularly vulnerable to the manifestations of climate change. By quantifying the various environmental, economic, and social factors that can contribute to poverty, we identify populations that are most vulnerable to poverty and poverty traps due to environmental change. We define vulnerability as consisting of risk (probability of event and exposed elements), resiliency, and capacity to respond. Resiliency captures the social system's ability to absorb a natural disaster while retaining the same basic structure, organization, and ways of functioning, as well as its general capacity to adapt to stress and change. Capacity to respond is a surrogate for technical skills, institutional capabilities, and efficacy within countries and their economies. We use a "climate change multiplier" to account for possible increases in the frequency and severity of natural events due to climate change. Through various analytical methods, we quantify the social, political, economic, and environmental factors that contribute to poverty or poverty traps. These data sets are then used to determine vulnerability through raster multiplication in geospatial analysis. The vulnerability of a particular location to climate change is then mapped, with areas of high vulnerability clearly delineated. The success of this methodology indicates that it is indeed possible to quantify the effects of climate change on global vulnerability to natural disasters, and can be used as a mechanism to identify areas where proactive measures, such as improving adaptation or capacity to respond, can reduce the humanitarian and economic impacts of climate change.

  4. Climate Change Indicator for Hazard Identification of Indian North West Coast Marine Environment Using Synthetic Aperture Radar (sar)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gambheer, Phani Raj

    2012-07-01

    Stormwater runoff, Petroleum Hydrocarbon plumes are found abundantly near coastal cities, coastal population settlements especially in developing nations as more than half the world's human population. Ever increasing coastal populations and development in coastal areas have led to increased loading of toxic substances, nutrients and pathogens. These hazards cause deleterious effects on the population in many ways directly or indirectly which lead to algal blooms, hypoxia, beach closures, and damage to coastal fisheries. Hence these pollution hazards are important and the coastal administrations and people need to be aware of such a danger lurking very close to them. These hazards due to their small size, dynamic and episodic in nature are difficult to be visualized or to sample using in-situ traditional scientific methods. Natural obstructions like cloud cover and complex coastal circulations can hinder to detect and monitor such occurrences in the selected areas chosen for observations. This study takes recourse to Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery because the pollution hazards are easily detectable as surfactants are deposited on the sea surface, along with nutrients and pathogens, smoothing capillary and small gravity waves to produce areas of reduced backscatter compared with surrounding ocean. These black spots can be termed as `Ecologic Indicator' and formed probably due to stronger thermal stratification, a deepening event of thermocline. SAR imagery that delivers useful data better than others regardless of darkness or cloud cover, should be made as an important observational tool for assessment and monitoring marine pollution hazards in the areas close to coastal regions. Till now the effects of climate change, sea level rise and global warming seems to have not affected the coastal populace of India in intrusions of sea water but it takes significance to the human health as the tides dominate these latitudes with bringing these polluted waters. KEY

  5. Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... sheets Fact files Questions & answers Features Multimedia Contacts Climate change and health Fact sheet Reviewed June 2016 Key ... in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution. Climate change Over the last 50 years, human activities – particularly ...

  6. Climate change and human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warren, John A; Berner, James E; Curtis, Tine

    2005-01-01

    or degradation of permafrost. Climate change can result in damage to sanitation infrastructure resulting in the spread of disease or threatening a community's ability to maintain its economy, geographic location and cultural tradition, leading to mental stress. Through monitoring of some basic indicators...... communities can begin to develop a response to climate change. With this information, planners, engineers, health care professionals and governments can begin to develop approaches to address the challenges related to climate change....

  7. Climate Change Law

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Farber, D.A.; Peeters, Marjan

    2016-01-01

    This book brings together over seventy fifty authors for a comprehensive examination of the emerging global regime of climate change law. Despite the relative youth of climate change law, we can already begin to see the outlines of legal regimes addressing climate change mitigation and adaptation (a

  8. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulation seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse in the 21st century of the thermohaline circulation is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  9. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulate seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse of the thermohaline circulation in the 21st century is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  10. Asking about climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise

    2014-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that climate change will strongly affect people across the globe. Likely impacts of and adaptations to climate change are drawing the attention of researchers from many disciplines. In adaptation research focus is often on perceptions of climate change...... and on vulnerability and adaptation strategies in a particular region or community. But how do we research the ways in which people experience changing climatic conditions, the processes of decision-making, the actual adaptation strategies carried out and the consequences of these for actors living and dealing...... with climate change? On the basis of a literature review of all articles published in Global Environmental Change between 2000 and 2012 that deal with human dimensions of climate change using qualitative methods this paper provides some answers but also raises some concerns. The period and length of fieldwork...

  11. Financing climate change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouwer, Laurens M; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2006-03-01

    This paper examines the topic of financing adaptation in future climate change policies. A major question is whether adaptation in developing countries should be financed under the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), or whether funding should come from other sources. We present an overview of financial resources and propose the employment of a two-track approach: one track that attempts to secure climate change adaptation funding under the UNFCCC; and a second track that improves mainstreaming of climate risk management in development efforts. Developed countries would need to demonstrate much greater commitment to the funding of adaptation measures if the UNFCCC were to cover a substantial part of the costs. The mainstreaming of climate change adaptation could follow a risk management path, particularly in relation to disaster risk reduction. 'Climate-proofing' of development projects that currently do not consider climate and weather risks could improve their sustainability.

  12. Climate Change and Collective Violence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Barry S; Sidel, Victor W; Patz, Jonathan A

    2017-03-20

    Climate change is causing increases in temperature, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and other environmental impacts. It is also causing or contributing to heat-related disorders, respiratory and allergic disorders, infectious diseases, malnutrition due to food insecurity, and mental health disorders. In addition, increasing evidence indicates that climate change is causally associated with collective violence, generally in combination with other causal factors. Increased temperatures and extremes of precipitation with their associated consequences, including resultant scarcity of cropland and other key environmental resources, are major pathways by which climate change leads to collective violence. Public health professionals can help prevent collective violence due to climate change (a) by supporting mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, (b) by promoting adaptation measures to address the consequences of climate change and to improve community resilience, and

  13. Climate Change in Prehistory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burroughs, William James

    2005-06-01

    How did humankind deal with the extreme challenges of the last Ice Age? How have the relatively benign post-Ice Age conditions affected the evolution and spread of humanity across the globe? By setting our genetic history in the context of climate change during prehistory, the origin of many features of our modern world are identified and presented in this illuminating book. It reviews the aspects of our physiology and intellectual development that have been influenced by climatic factors, and how features of our lives - diet, language and the domestication of animals - are also the product of the climate in which we evolved. In short: climate change in prehistory has in many ways made us what we are today. Climate Change in Prehistory weaves together studies of the climate with anthropological, archaeological and historical studies, and will fascinate all those interested in the effects of climate on human development and history.

  14. EXTREME WINTERS IN XX–XXI CENTURIES AS INDICATORS OF SNOWINESS AND AVALANCHE HAZARD IN THE PAST AND EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. D. Oleynikov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Currently, due to the global climate change and increasing frequency of weather events focus is on prediction of climate extremes. Large-scale meteorological anomalies can cause long-term paralysis of social and economic infrastructure of the major mountain regions and even individual states. In winter periods, these anomalies are associated with prolonged heavy snowfalls and associated with them catastrophic avalanches which cause significant social and economic damage. The climate system maintains a certain momentum during periods of adjustment and transition to other conditions in the ratio of heat and moisture and contains a climate «signal» of the climates of the past and the future. In our view seasonal and yearly extremes perform the role of these indicators, study of which enables for a deeper understanding and appreciation of the real situation of the climate periods related to the modern ones. The paper provides an overview of the criteria for selection of extreme winters. Identification of extremely cold winters during the period of instrumental observation and assessment of their snowiness and avalanche activity done for the Elbrus region, which is a model site for study of the avalanche regime in the Central Caucasus. The studies aim to identify the extreme winters in the Greater Caucasus, assess their frequency of occurrence, characterize the scale and intensity of the avalanche formation. The data obtained can be used to identify winter-analogues in the reconstruction and long-term forecast of avalanches. 

  15. Malaria ecology and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCord, G. C.

    2016-05-01

    Understanding the costs that climate change will exact on society is crucial to devising an appropriate policy response. One of the channels through while climate change will affect human society is through vector-borne diseases whose epidemiology is conditioned by ambient ecology. This paper introduces the literature on malaria, its cost on society, and the consequences of climate change to the physics community in hopes of inspiring synergistic research in the area of climate change and health. It then demonstrates the use of one ecological indicator of malaria suitability to provide an order-of-magnitude assessment of how climate change might affect the malaria burden. The average of Global Circulation Model end-of-century predictions implies a 47% average increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease in today's malarious areas, significantly complicating malaria elimination efforts.

  16. Climate change; Le changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    Based on contributions on 120 French and foreign scientists representing different disciplines (mathematics, physics, mechanics, chemistry, biology, medicine, and so on), this report proposes an overview of the scientific knowledge and debate about climate change. It discusses the various indicators of climate evolution (temperatures, ice surfaces, sea level, biological indicators) and the various factors which may contribute to climate evolution (greenhouse gases, solar radiation). It also comments climate evolutions in the past as they can be investigated through some geological, thermal or geochemical indicators. Then, the authors describe and discuss the various climate mechanisms: solar activity, oceans, ice caps, greenhouse gases. In a third part, the authors discuss the different types of climate models which differ by the way they describe processes, and the current validation process for these models

  17. Climate Change and Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chinowsky, P.; Arndt, Channing

    2012-01-01

    Decision-makers who are responsible for determining when and where infrastructure should be developed and/or enhanced are facing a new challenge with the emerging topic of climate change. The paper introduces a stressor–response methodology where engineering-based models are used as a basis...... four climate projection scenarios, the paper details how climate change response decisions may cost the Mozambican government in terms of maintenance costs and long-term roadstock inventory reduction. Through this approach the paper details how a 14% reduction in inventory loss can be achieved through...... the adoption of a proactive, design standard evolution approach to climate change....

  18. Climate Change and Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-01

    expansion of large hydropower and reservoir construction can increase social resilience through associated economic development . However, the same...of the most vulnerable countries globally to the consequences of climate change, Vietnam is highly likely to experience a variety of negative...iii ABSTRACT Climate Change and Vietnam As one of the most vulnerable countries globally to the consequences

  19. Climate Change Crunch Time

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xie Zhenhua

    2011-01-01

    CLIMATE change is a severe challenge facing humanity in the 21st century and thus the Chinese Government always attaches great importance to the problem.Actively dealing with climate change is China's important strategic policy in its social and economic development.China will make a positive contribution to the world in this regard.

  20. Communities under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

  1. Cuba confronts climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Gisela; Clark, Ismael

    2015-04-01

    Among environmental problems, climate change presents the greatest challenges to developing countries, especially island nations. Changes in climate and the resulting effects on human health call for examination of the interactions between environmental and social factors. Important in Cuba's case are soil conditions, food availability, disease burden, ecological changes, extreme weather events, water quality and rising sea levels, all in conjunction with a range of social, cultural, economic and demographic conditions.

  2. Climate change and skin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balato, N; Ayala, F; Megna, M; Balato, A; Patruno, C

    2013-02-01

    Global climate appears to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Climate change can be caused by several factors that include variations in solar radiation received by earth, oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions, as well as human-induced alterations of the natural world. Many human activities, such as the use of fossil fuel and the consequent accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, land consumption, deforestation, industrial processes, as well as some agriculture practices are contributing to global climate change. Indeed, many authors have reported on the current trend towards global warming (average surface temperature has augmented by 0.6 °C over the past 100 years), decreased precipitation, atmospheric humidity changes, and global rise in extreme climatic events. The magnitude and cause of these changes and their impact on human activity have become important matters of debate worldwide, representing climate change as one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. Although many articles have been written based on observations and various predictive models of how climate change could affect social, economic and health systems, only few studies exist about the effects of this change on skin physiology and diseases. However, the skin is the most exposed organ to environment; therefore, cutaneous diseases are inclined to have a high sensitivity to climate. For example, global warming, deforestation and changes in precipitation have been linked to variations in the geographical distribution of vectors of some infectious diseases (leishmaniasis, lyme disease, etc) by changing their spread, whereas warm and humid environment can also encourage the colonization of the skin by bacteria and fungi. The present review focuses on the wide and complex relationship between climate change and dermatology, showing the numerous factors that are contributing to modify the incidence and the clinical pattern of many

  3. Olivine and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuiling, R.D.

    2012-01-01

    The greenhouse effect, thanks mainly to the water vapor in our atmosphere, has created a livable climate on Earth. Climate change, however, may potentially have dire consequences. It is generally assumed that the rise in CO2 levels in the atmosphere is the main culprit, although several other greenh

  4. Climate change and health

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Last, J.M. [Ottawa Univ., ON (Canada); Chiotti, Q.P. [Environment Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2001-12-31

    Adverse effects such as heat-related illnesses are felt on human health as a result of climate change. Those effects can also be the increased frequency and severity of extreme weather resulting in injury and death, a wider array of insect vectors for diseases, as well as increased risk of allergic, food-borne and water-borne diseases. Coastal ecosystems are altered, sea levels are rising and millions of people will need to relocate in the next century as a result of global warming. Keeping disaster plans, maintaining epidemiological monitoring and surveillance, and issuing advisory messages concerning the risks to human health are some of the responses required from public health officials. The establishment of standards, the development of policies on food and nutrition and the defining of priorities for research are important aspects that must be kept in mind. The authors indicated that multidisciplinary approaches are better suited to find solutions to the challenges encountered due to climate change than the narrow methods used in the past. refs., 4 tabs.

  5. Nature-based solutions to climate change mitigation and adaptation in urban areas: perspectives on indicators, knowledge gaps, barriers, and opportunities for action

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadja Kabisch

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Nature-based solutions promoting green and blue urban areas have significant potential to decrease the vulnerability and enhance the resilience of cities in light of climatic change. They can thereby help to mitigate climate change-induced impacts and serve as proactive adaptation options for municipalities. We explore the various contexts in which nature-based solutions are relevant for climate mitigation and adaptation in urban areas, identify indicators for assessing the effectiveness of nature-based solutions and related knowledge gaps. In addition, we explore existing barriers and potential opportunities for increasing the scale and effectiveness of nature-based solution implementation. The results were derived from an inter- and transdisciplinary workshop with experts from research, municipalities, policy, and society. As an outcome of the workshop discussions and building on existing evidence, we highlight three main needs for future science and policy agendas when dealing with nature-based solutions: (i produce stronger evidence on nature-based solutions for climate change adaptation and mitigation and raise awareness by increasing implementation; (ii adapt for governance challenges in implementing nature-based solutions by using reflexive approaches, which implies bringing together new networks of society, nature-based solution ambassadors, and practitioners; (iii consider socio-environmental justice and social cohesion when implementing nature-based solutions by using integrated governance approaches that take into account an integrative and transdisciplinary participation of diverse actors. Taking these needs into account, nature-based solutions can serve as climate mitigation and adaptation tools that produce additional cobenefits for societal well-being, thereby serving as strong investment options for sustainable urban planning.

  6. A common-sense climate index: is climate changing noticeably?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Glascoe, J.; Ruedy, R.

    1998-01-01

    We propose an index of climate change based on practical climate indicators such as heating degree days and the frequency of intense precipitation. We find that in most regions the index is positive, the sense predicted to accompany global warming. In a few regions, especially in Asia and western North America, the index indicates that climate change should be apparent already, but in most places climate trends are too small to stand out above year-to-year variability. The climate index is strongly correlated with global surface temperature, which has increased as rapidly as projected by climate models in the 1980s. We argue that the global area with obvious climate change will increase notably in the next few years. But we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has declined in recent years, and thus there is an opportunity to keep climate change in the 21st century less than "business-as-usual" scenarios.

  7. Climate change and compensation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint; Flanagan, Tine Bech

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a case for compensation of actual harm from climate change in the poorest countries. First, it is shown that climate change threatens to reverse the fight to eradicate poverty. Secondly, it is shown how the problems raised in the literature for compensation to some extent...... are based on misconceptions and do not apply to compensation of present actual harm. Finally, two arguments are presented to the effect that, in so far as developed countries accept a major commitment to mitigate climate change, they should also accept a commitment to address or compensate actual harm from...... in the future, then there is also moral reason to address these harms if they materialize now. We argue that these principles are applicable to climate change, and that given the commitment of wealthy countries to a "common but differentiated responsibility," they lead to a commitment to address or compensate...

  8. Population and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Landis MacKellar, F.; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2000-11-01

    Population and Climate Change provides the first systematic in-depth treatment of links between two major themes of the 21st century: population growth (and associated demographic trends such as aging) and climate change. It is written by a multidisciplinary team of authors from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis who integrate both natural science and social science perspectives in a way that is comprehensible to members of both communities. The book will be of primary interest to researchers in the fields of climate change, demography, and economics. It will also be useful to policy-makers and NGOs dealing with issues of population dynamics and climate change, and to teachers and students in courses such as environmental studies, demography, climatology, economics, earth systems science, and international relations.

  9. Criminality and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Rob

    2016-08-01

    The impacts of climate change imply a reconceptualization of environment-related criminality. Criminology can offer insight into the definitions and dynamics of this behaviour, and outline potential areas of redress.

  10. Climate change and compensation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint; Flanagan, Tine Bech

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a case for compensation of actual harm from climate change in the poorest countries. First, it is shown that climate change threatens to reverse the fight to eradicate poverty. Secondly, it is shown how the problems raised in the literature for compensation to some extent...... are based on misconceptions and do not apply to compensation of present actual harm. Finally, two arguments are presented to the effect that, in so far as developed countries accept a major commitment to mitigate climate change, they should also accept a commitment to address or compensate actual harm from...... climate change. The first argument appeals to the principle that if it is an injustice to cause risk of incurring harm in the future, then it is also an injustice to cause a similar harm now. The second argument appeals to the principle that if there is moral reason to reduce the risk of specific harms...

  11. Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hudecz, Adriána

    -operation and research into the common problems of the Northern Periphery. This report is an output of the ROADEX “Implementing Accessibility” project (2009-2012). It gives a summary of the results of research into adaptation measures to combat climate change effects on low volume roads in the Northern Periphery....... The research was carried out between January 2000 and March 2012. One of the biggest challenges that mankind has to face is the prospect of climate change resulting from emissions of greenhouse gases. These gases trap energy in the atmosphere and cause global surface temperatures to rise. This warming in turn...... causes changes in other climatic variables such as rainfall, humidity and wind speed that impact on the functioning of infrastructure such road networks. This paper discusses the climate changes predicted by the world’s meteorological organisations and considers how these may impact on the public...

  12. Climate change and cities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Satterthwaite, David

    2006-10-15

    What is done, or not done, in cities in relation to climate change over the next 5-10 years will affect hundreds of millions of people, because their lives and livelihoods are at risk from global warming. What is done in cities will also have a major influence on whether the escalating risks for the whole planet will be reduced or eliminated. Climate change needs to be considered in all development plans and investments - local, regional, national and international. Urban growth must be made more climate-resilient and help reduce, rather than increase, greenhouse gas emissions. This will not be done by the market; it can only be done by governments.

  13. Fe speciation and Fe/Al ratio in the sediments of southeastern Arabian Sea as an indicator of climate change

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Pattan, J.N.; Parthiban, G.; Gupta, S.M.; Mir, I.A.

    is being replaced by disordered kaolinite during which Fe 3+ is weakly mobile (Balan et a., 2011). Interplay between weathering and monsoonal precipitation the sorbed Fe may be released and transported to southeastern Arabian Sea. Based on clay... core could be very minimum. Fe rich weathered material from these rocks and strong monsoon might have helped in transporting dissolved Fe to the southeastern Arabian Sea. GT- II and I were associated with a higher degree of warm and humid climate...

  14. Millennial-centennial Scales Climate Changes of Holocene Indicated by Magnetic Susceptibility of High-resolution Section in Salawusu River Valley China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LU Yingxia; LI Baosheng; WEN Xiaohao; QIU Shifan; WANG Fengnian; NIU Dongfeng; LI Zhiwen

    2010-01-01

    The upmost segment(Holocene series)of the Milanggouwan stratigraphic section(MGS1)in the Salawusu River valley shows 11 sedimentary cycles of dune sands and fluvio-lacustrine facies,or dune sands and paleosols.The analysis of the magnetic susceptibility of this segment suggests that there are 11 magnetic susceptibility cycles with the value alternating from low to high,in which the layers of the dune sands correspond to the lower value of the magnetic susceptibility and the layers of fluvio-lacustrine facies and paleosols correspond to the higher peaks.The study reveals that the low and high magnetic susceptibility values indicate the climate dominated by cold-arid winter monsoon and warm-humid summer monsoon of East Asia,respectively,and the study area has experienced at least 22 times of mil-lennial-centennial scales climate alternation from the cold-arid to the warm-humid during the Holocene.In terms of the time and the climate nature,the variations basically correspond to those of the North Atlantic and some records of cold-warm changes in China as well.They might be caused by the alternation of winter and summer monsoons in the Mu Us Desert induced by global climate fluctuations in the Holocene.

  15. Development of an indicator system for the German action plan to global climate change (DAS); Entwicklung eines Indikatorensystems fuer die Deutsche Anpassungsstrategie an den Klimawandel (DAS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoenthaler, Konstanze; Andrian-Werburg, Stefan von [Bosch und Partner GmbH, Muenchen (Germany); Nickel, Darla [Ecologic gGmbH Institut fuer Internationale und Europaeische Umweltpolitik, Berlin (Germany)

    2011-12-15

    On 17th December 2008 the German Federal Cabinet adopted the German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change (DAS: Deutsche Anpassungsstrategie) (BUNDESREGIERUNG 2008). The DAS has created the framework for adapting to the consequences of climate change in Germany. First and foremost, the DAS contributes its guidelines at Federal level, to provide guidance for agents at other levels. The Strategy lays the foundation for a medium-term process. In conjunction with the individual Federal States and other groups representing various sectors of society, the Strategy provides a step-by-step assessment of the risks of climate change. Furthermore, it states the potential requirements for action, and defines the appropriate goals and potential adaptation measures to be developed and implemented in the process. The Strategy is divided into 13 action fields and two cross-sectional fields (=14+15). (1) Human health (2) Building sector (3) Water regime, water management, coastal and marine protection (4) Soil (5) Biological diversity (6) Agriculture (7) Woodland and forestry (8) Fishery (9) Energy industry (conversion, transport and supply) (10) Financial services industry (11) Transport, transport infrastructure (12) Trade and industry (13) Tourism industry (14) Spatial, regional and physical development planning (15) Civil protection. In due course, the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) will design a comprehensive set of tools to support and implement the DAS. This will be made available for download from www.anpassung.net. An integral part of this will be the 'Tatenbank' (www.tatenbank.anpassung.net), the 'Klimalotse' (www.klimalotse.anpassung.net), FISKA (special information system 'Adaptation') and an Indicator System to aid adaptation. The latter is one of the key tasks identified for the DAS. As far as the Indicator System is concerned, it has been decided to prepare a Report on Indicators for the challenges facing Germany and the

  16. Changes of reanalysis-derived Northern Hemisphere summer warm extreme indices during 1948-2006 and links with climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Xingqin; Wang, Anyu; Fong, Soi-kun; Lin, Wenshi; Liu, Ji

    2008-08-01

    Using1948-2006 surface 2 m daily temperature, daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset, summer warm extreme indices, warm days (TG90P), warm-spell days (WSFI), warm day-times (TX90P) and warm nights (TN90P) are calculated for Gaussian grids, a complete Northern Hemisphere (NH) picture of changes of summer warm extremes is presented, and their links with El Niño/La Niña & Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are also examined in this paper. The results on the NH summer seasonal basis are as follows. Warm days, warm-spell days, warm day-times and warm nights increase at rates of 2.18, 1.23, 2.31 and 2.00 days/decade respectively during 1948-2006. A broader area is exposed to frequent occurrence of warm extremes in the recent 30 years than in the last 30 years. The 59-year long-term upward trend is characterized by a positive trend reversion in the late 1970s, with a slight downward trend in the last 30 years and a rapid upward trend in the recent 30 years, representing the main form of interdecadal variance of NH warm extremes. Warm days, warm-spell days, warm day-times and warm nights increase at rates of 4.53, 3.36, 4.44 and 4.21 days/decade respectively during 1977-2006. During 1948-2006, the largest increasing rate is at central tropical Atlantic and the largest decreasing rate in Mongolia and north China. Significant (level of 0.05) upward trends cover about half of the NH during 1948-2006 and about a third of the NH during 1977-2006 with the very significant upward trends more focused, while very sparse regions have significant downward trends during these two periods. In the recent 30 years, although NH-land summer warms at a faster rate than NH-water, warm extremes on NH-water increase much faster than those on NH-land, the average warm extreme indices and their increasing trends on NH are most modulated by

  17. Topologies of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is quickly becoming a ubiquitous socionatural reality, mediating extremes of sociospatial scale from the bodily to the planetary. Although environmentalism invites us to ‘think globally and act locally', the meaning of these scalar designations remains ambiguous. This paper explores...... the topological presuppositions of social theory in the context of global climate change, asking how carbon emissions ‘translate' into various sociomaterial forms. Staging a meeting between Tim Ingold's phenomenology of globes and spheres and the social topologies of actor-network theory (ANT), the paper advances...... a ‘relational-scalar' analytics of spatial practices, technoscience, and power. As technoscience gradually constructs a networked global climate, this ‘grey box' comes to circulate within fluid social spaces, taking on new shades as it hybridizes knowledges, symbols, and practices. Global climates thus come...

  18. Nature-based solutions to climate change mitigation and adaptation in urban areas: Perspectives on indicators, knowledge gaps, barriers, and opportunities for action

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    N. Kabisch (Nadja); N. Frantzeskaki (Niki); S. Pauleit (Stephan); Naumann, S. (Sandra); Davis, M. (McKenna); M. Artmann (Martina); D. Haase (Dagmar); Knapp, S. (Sonja); Korn, H. (Horst); Stadler, J. (Jutta); Zaunberger, K. (Karin); Bonn, A. (Aletta)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractNature-based solutions promoting green and blue urban areas have significant potential to decrease the vulnerability and enhance the resilience of cities in light of climatic change. They can thereby help to mitigate climate change-induced impacts and serve as proactive adaptation option

  19. Evaporation and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandsma, T.

    1993-01-01

    In this article the influence of climate change on evaporation is discussed. The emphasis is on open water evaporation. Three methods for calculating evaporation are compared considering only changes in temperature and factors directly dependent on temperature. The Penman-method is used to investiga

  20. Climate Change: Good for Us?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oblak, Jackie

    2000-01-01

    Presents an activity with the objective of encouraging students to think about the effects of climate change. Explains background information on dependence to climate and discuses whether climate change is important. Provides information for the activity, extensions, and evaluation. (YDS)

  1. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change ref...

  2. Climate change matters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macpherson, Cheryl Cox

    2014-04-01

    One manifestation of climate change is the increasingly severe extreme weather that causes injury, illness and death through heat stress, air pollution, infectious disease and other means. Leading health organisations around the world are responding to the related water and food shortages and volatility of energy and agriculture prices that threaten health and health economics. Environmental and climate ethics highlight the associated challenges to human rights and distributive justice but rarely address health or encompass bioethical methods or analyses. Public health ethics and its broader umbrella, bioethics, remain relatively silent on climate change. Meanwhile global population growth creates more people who aspire to Western lifestyles and unrestrained socioeconomic growth. Fulfilling these aspirations generates more emissions; worsens climate change; and undermines virtues and values that engender appreciation of, and protections for, natural resources. Greater understanding of how virtues and values are evolving in different contexts, and the associated consequences, might nudge the individual and collective priorities that inform public policy toward embracing stewardship and responsibility for environmental resources necessary to health. Instead of neglecting climate change and related policy, public health ethics and bioethics should explore these issues; bring transparency to the tradeoffs that permit emissions to continue at current rates; and offer deeper understanding about what is at stake and what it means to live a good life in today's world.

  3. Indicators of Ecological Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-03-03

    Wang et al. (2003) and earlier those of Chapra and Di Toro (1991). Wang et al. (2003) termed their approach the extreme value method and used it to...Thesis, Auburn University, Auburn, AL. 210 pp. Chapra , S. C., Di Toro, D. M., 1991. Delta method for estimating primary production, respiration, and...characteristics, The challenge in using ecological indicators is determining which of the numerous measures of ecological systems best characterize

  4. Climate Change and Future World

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    fresh water. Movements of migrants from northern Africa and the Middle-East are already a security problem for Europe . This phenomenon is likely to be...Climate Change Science Program , Climate Literacy – The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences, 3. (http://library.globalchange.gov/climate...06/2013. 21 U.S. Climate Change Science Program , Climate Literacy – The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences, 3. (http

  5. Climate change and amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corn, P. S.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species

  6. Energy and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-15

    Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

  7. Bromine soil/sediment enrichment in tidal salt marshes as a potential indicator of climate changes driven by solar activity: New insights from W coast Portuguese estuaries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, J; Fatela, F; Leorri, E; Moreno, F; Freitas, M C; Valente, T; Araújo, M F; Gómez-Navarro, J J; Guise, L; Blake, W H

    2017-02-15

    This paper aims at providing insight about bromine (Br) cycle in four Portuguese estuaries: Minho, Lima (in the NW coast) and Sado, Mira (in the SW coast). The focus is on their tidal marsh environments, quite distinct with regard to key biophysicochemical attributes. Regardless of the primary bromide (Br(-)) common natural source, i.e., seawater, the NW marshes present relatively higher surface soil/sediment Br concentrations than the ones from SW coast. This happens in close connection with organic matter (OM) content, and is controlled by their main climatic contexts. Yet, the anthropogenic impact on Br concentrations cannot be discarded. Regarding [Br] spatial patterns across the marshes, the results show a general increase from tidal flat toward high marsh. Maxima [Br] occur in the upper driftline zone, at transition from highest low marsh to high marsh, recognized as a privileged setting for OM accumulation. Based on the discovery of OM ubiquitous bromination in marine and transitional environments, it is assumed that this Br occurs mainly as organobromine. Analysis of two dated sediment cores indicates that, despite having the same age (AD ~1300), the Caminha salt marsh (Minho estuary) evidences higher Br enrichment than the Casa Branca salt marsh (Mira estuary). This is related to a greater Br storage ability, which is linked to OM build-up and rate dynamics under different climate scenarios. Both cores evidence a fairly similar temporal Br enrichment pattern, and may be interpreted in light of the sun-climate coupling. Thereby, most of the well-known Grand Solar Minima during the Little Ice Age appear to have left an imprint on these marshes, supported by higher [Br] in soils/sediments. Besides climate changes driven by solar activity and impacting marsh Br biogeodynamics, those Br enrichment peaks might also reflect inputs of enhanced volcanic activity covarying with Grand Solar Minima.

  8. Methodology for qualitative uncertainty assessment of climate impact indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Juliane; Keup-Thiel, Elke; Rechid, Diana; Hänsler, Andreas; Pfeifer, Susanne; Roth, Ellinor; Jacob, Daniela

    2016-04-01

    The FP7 project "Climate Information Portal for Copernicus" (CLIPC) is developing an integrated platform of climate data services to provide a single point of access for authoritative scientific information on climate change and climate change impacts. In this project, the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) has been in charge of the development of a methodology on how to assess the uncertainties related to climate impact indicators. Existing climate data portals mainly treat the uncertainties in two ways: Either they provide generic guidance and/or express with statistical measures the quantifiable fraction of the uncertainty. However, none of the climate data portals give the users a qualitative guidance how confident they can be in the validity of the displayed data. The need for such guidance was identified in CLIPC user consultations. Therefore, we aim to provide an uncertainty assessment that provides the users with climate impact indicator-specific guidance on the degree to which they can trust the outcome. We will present an approach that provides information on the importance of different sources of uncertainties associated with a specific climate impact indicator and how these sources affect the overall 'degree of confidence' of this respective indicator. To meet users requirements in the effective communication of uncertainties, their feedback has been involved during the development process of the methodology. Assessing and visualising the quantitative component of uncertainty is part of the qualitative guidance. As visual analysis method, we apply the Climate Signal Maps (Pfeifer et al. 2015), which highlight only those areas with robust climate change signals. Here, robustness is defined as a combination of model agreement and the significance of the individual model projections. Reference Pfeifer, S., Bülow, K., Gobiet, A., Hänsler, A., Mudelsee, M., Otto, J., Rechid, D., Teichmann, C. and Jacob, D.: Robustness of Ensemble Climate Projections

  9. Corporate Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    The American Chamber of Commerce, the People's Republic of China (AmCham-China) and the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai recently released "American Corporate Experience in a Changing China: Insights From AmCham Business Climate Surveys, 1999-2005." Excerpts of the report follow:

  10. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carmin, J.; Tierney, K.; Chu, E.; Hunter, L.M.; Roberts, J.T.; Shi, L.; Dunlap, R.E.; Brulle, R.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the financ

  11. Tackling Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Representatives from nearly 200 countries and regions have gathered in Durban,South Africa,for the 17th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 7th session of the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol.The meeting is the follow-up conference to tacklin

  12. DTU Climate Change Technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    During 2008 and 2009, DTU held a workshop series focusing on assessment of and adaption to climate changes as well as on mitigation of green house gasses. In the workshops, a total of 1500 scientists, government officials and business leaders have outlined scenarios for technology development...

  13. Variation of karst spring discharge in the recent five decades as an indicator of global climate change: A case study at Shanxi, northern China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GUO; Qinghai; WANG; Yanxin; MA; Teng; LI; Luxiu

    2005-01-01

    Karst in Shanxi Province is representative of that in northern China, and karst water systems discharge in the form of springs that are among the most important sources for local water supply. Since the 1950s, attenuation has been the major trend of discharge variation of most karst springs at Shanxi. Based on the case study of 7 karst springs including Niangziguan, Xin'an, Guozhuang, Shentou, Jinci, Lancun, and Hongshan springs, the discharge variation process of karst springs was divided into natural fluctuation phase and anthropogenic impact phase. Discharge attenuation of the 7 karst springs was controlled mainly by climate and human activities, with their contributions being respectively about 60% and 40%. According to the difference of the effect of climate and human activities for each spring, attenuation modes of spring discharge fall into three types: natural process dominated attenuation type, exploitation induced process dominated attenuation type, and mixed attenuation type. The total restored discharge variation of 7 karst springs matched well with the global air temperature change in 1956―2000, clearly indicating the trend of global warming and aridity in the last several decades, and the analysis of discharge variation processes of karst springs can be used as a new tool for global change studies.

  14. Adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn

    2011-01-01

    framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed...... down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US2.3 to US2.3toUS7.......4 billion during 2003–2050. Our analysis identifies improved road design and agricultural sector investments as key ‘no-regret’ adaptation measures, alongside intensified efforts to develop a more flexible and resilient society. Our findings also support the need for cooperative river basin management...

  15. Hantaviruses and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klempa, B

    2009-06-01

    Most hantaviruses are rodent-borne emerging viruses. They cause two significant human diseases, haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Asia and Europe, and hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome in the Americas. Very recently, several novel hantaviruses with unknown pathogenic potential have been identified in Africa and in a variety of insectivores (shrews and a mole). Because there is very limited information available on the possible impact of climate change on all of these highly dangerous pathogens, it is timely to review this aspect of their epidemiology. It can reasonably be concluded that climate change should influence hantaviruses through impacts on the hantavirus reservoir host populations. We can anticipate changes in the size and frequency of hantavirus outbreaks, the spectrum of hantavirus species and geographical distribution (mediated by changes in population densities), and species composition and geographical distribution of their reservoir hosts. The early effects of global warming have already been observed in different geographical areas of Europe. Elevated average temperatures in West-Central Europe have been associated with more frequent Puumala hantavirus outbreaks, through high seed production (mast year) and high bank vole densities. On the other hand, warm winters in Scandinavia have led to a decline in vole populations as a result of the missing protective snow cover. Additional effects can be caused by increased intensity and frequency of extreme climatic events, or by changes in human behaviour leading to higher risk of human virus exposure. Regardless of the extent of climate change, it is difficult to predict the impact on hantavirus survival, emergence and epidemiology. Nevertheless, hantaviruses will undoubtedly remain a significant public health threat for several decades to come.

  16. Teaching Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donoghue, A.

    2011-09-01

    In giving public presentations about climate change, we face the barriers of mis-information in the political debate and lack of science literacy that extends to science phobia for some. In climate issues, the later problem is compounded by the fact that the science - reconstruction of past climate through the use of proxy sources, such as isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen - is complex, making it more challenging for general audiences. Also, the process of science, particularly peer review, is suspected by some to be a way of keeping science orthodox instead of keeping it honest. I approach these barriers by focusing on the data and the fact that the data have been carefully acquired over decades and centuries by dedicated people with no political agenda. I have taught elderhostel courses twice and have given many public talks on this topic. Thus I have experience in this area to share with others. I would also like to learn of others' approaches to the vast amount of scientific information and getting past the politics. A special interest group on climate change will allow those of us to speak on this important topic to share how we approach both the science and the politics of this issue.

  17. Responses of alpine biodiversity to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Yang Liu; Jian Zhang; Wanqin Yang

    2009-01-01

    The alpine belt is the temperature-driven treeless region between the timberline and the snowline. Alpine belts are ideal sites for monitoring climate change because species in mountain habitats are especially sensitive to climate change. Global warming is shifting the distribution of alpine biodiversity and is leading to glacial retreat, implying that alterations in alpine biodiversity are indicators of climate change. Therefore, more attention has been given to changes in species compositio...

  18. NASA indicators research in support of the National Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leidner, A. K.; Houser, P. R.; Tsaoussi, L.

    2013-12-01

    Indicators have the potential to concisely communicate to a broad audience the observed and projected climate trends and anomalies, as well as society's vulnerability and ability to adapt to climate change. Consequently, indicators are anticipated to play an important role in the Fourth U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA) report, slated to be released in four years. The NCA objectives include providing information about observed and anticipated changes in climate and assessing the impacts for regions and sectors, in order to help the nation prepare for a changing climate. Efforts are underway within the NCA to identify a set physical, ecological, and societal climate change indicators, by leveraging existing indicators currently in use by federal agencies. The NCA indicators are intended to provide meaningful and authoritative measures about the status and trends of climate for decision makers and the public. As a complement to this effort, and to support the NCA sustained assessment process, NASA solicited membership for an Indicators System Team and selected fourteen projects to begin research in summer 2013. These teams will develop and test potential new indicators that align with the vision set forth by the NCA, by combining NASA's remote sensing and modeling data products with additional datasets. Here, we further describe the objectives of the research program and highlight preliminary findings of several key projects related to physical, ecological, and societal climate change indicators, and discuss future research activities. Ultimately, this research will be made available in the peer-reviewed literature so that the newly developed indicators have the potential to be included in future NCA reports.

  19. Challenges and solutions for climate change

    CERN Document Server

    Gaast, Wytze

    2012-01-01

    The latest scientific knowledge on climate change indicates that higher greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere through unchecked emissions will provoke severe climate change and ocean acidification threatening environmental structures on which humanity relies. Climate change therefore poses major socio-economic, technical and environmental challenges which will have serious impacts on countries’ pathways towards sustainable development. As a result, climate change and sustainable development have increasingly become interlinked. A changing climate makes achieving Millennium Development Goals more difficult and expensive, so there is every reason to achieve development goals with low greenhouse gas emissions. This leads to the following five challenges discussed by Challenges and Solutions for Climate Change: To place climate negotiations in the wider context of sustainability, equity and social change so that development benefits can be maximised at the same time as decreasing greenhouse gas emissi...

  20. Climate for Change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    around international networks. Despite the many initiatives taken by cities, existing research shows that the implementation of climate change actions is lacking. The reasons for this scarcity in practice are limited to general explanations in the literature, and studies focused on explaining...... and to investigate the institutional dynamics new institutional theory is used with an emphasis on examining institutional mechanisms in relation to building legitimacy for action. The concept of mechanisms can help explain how and why constraints on action occur, and the concept of legitimacy is useful to clarify...... the strategies used by officials to enable climate change action. A long running criticism of institutional theory is the emphasis on how institutions constrain actions rather than act as productive phenomena that facilitate action. Emergent strands within new institutional theory emphasise the role of agency...

  1. Climate Change Justice

    OpenAIRE

    Sunstein, Cass R.; Posner, Eric A.

    2007-01-01

    Greenhouse gas reductions would cost some nations much more than others and benefit some nations far less than others. Significant reductions would impose especially large costs on the United States, and recent projections suggest that the United States has relatively less to lose from climate change. In these circumstances, what does justice require the United States to do? Many people believe that the United States is required to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions beyond the point that is ...

  2. Confronting Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mintzer, Irving M.

    1992-06-01

    This book, which was published in time for the Earth Summit in Brazil in June 1992, is likely to make a huge impact on the political and economic agendas of international policy makers. It summarizes the scientific findings of Working Group I of the IPCC in the first part of the book. While acknowledging the uncertainties in subsequent chapters, it challenges and expands upon the existing views on how we should tackle the problems of climate change.

  3. Managing Climate Change Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB1 Aspendale, Victoria 3195 (Australia)

    2003-07-01

    Issues of uncertainty, scale and delay between action and response mean that 'dangerous' climate change is best managed within a risk assessment framework that evolves as new information is gathered. Risk can be broadly defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence; the latter measured as vulnerability to greenhouse-induced climate change. The most robust way to assess climate change damages in a probabilistic framework is as the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance. Because vulnerability is dominated by local factors, global vulnerability is the aggregation of many local impacts being forced beyond their coping ranges. Several case studies, generic sea level rise and temperature, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and water supply in an Australian catchment, are used to show how local risk assessments can be assessed then expressed as a function of global warming. Impacts treated thus can be aggregated to assess global risks consistent with Article 2 of the UNFCCC. A 'proof of concept' example is then used to show how the stabilisation of greenhouse gases can constrain the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds at both the both local and global scale. This analysis suggests that even if the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages can be estimated, the likelihood of being able to meet a cost-benefit target is limited by both physical and socio-economic uncertainties. In terms of managing climate change risks, adaptation will be most effective at reducing vulnerability likely to occur at low levels of warming. Successive efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases will reduce the likelihood of reaching levels of global warming from the top down, with the highest potential temperatures being avoided first, irrespective of contributing scientific uncertainties. This implies that the first cuts in emissions will always produce the largest economic benefits in terms of avoided

  4. Climate change and disaster management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Geoff; O'Keefe, Phil; Rose, Joanne; Wisner, Ben

    2006-03-01

    Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A focus that neglects to enhance capacity-building and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. Reducing vulnerability is a key aspect of reducing climate change risk. To do so requires a new approach to climate change risk and a change in institutional structures and relationships. A focus on development that neglects to enhance governance and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks.

  5. Spatial and temporal Teleconnections of Sea Surface Temperature and Ocean Indices to regional Climate Variations across Thailand - a Pathway to understanding the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bejranonda, Werapol; Koch, Manfred

    2010-05-01

    Thailand has a long coastline with the Pacific Ocean, as part of the Gulf of Thailand, as well as with the Indian Ocean, as part of the Andaman Sea. Because of this peculiar location, Thailand's local climate and, in particular, its water resources are strongly influenced by the mix of tropical wet, tropical dry and tropical monsoon seasons. Because of the large seasonal and interannual variations and irregularities of these, mainly ocean-driven weather patterns, particularly in recent times, large-scale water storage in huge river-fed reservoirs has a long tradition in Thailand, providing water for urban, industrial and agricultural use during long dry seasonal periods. These reservoirs which are located all over Thailand gather water primarily from monsoon-driven rainfall during the wet season which, usually, lasts from May to October. During the dry season, November to April, when the monsoon winds move northward, the air masses are drier in central and northern Thailand, with rain falling here only a few days in a month. Southern Thailand, on the other hand, which is constituted mostly by the isthmus between the two oceans, stays even hot and humid during that time period. Because of this tropical climate pattern, the surface water resources in most of Thailand strongly hinge on the monsoon movements which, in turn, depend themselves upon the thermal states of the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Therefore, the understanding of the recent strong seasonal and interannual climate variations with their detrimental effects on the availability of hydrological water resources in most parts of Thailand, must include the analysis of changes of various sea-state indices in the adjacent oceans and of their possible teleconnections with regional climate indices across this country. With the modern coupled atmospheric-ocean models being able to predict the variations of many ocean indices over a period of several months, namely, those driven by El Nino- Southern Oscillations

  6. A Kantian approach to a sustainable development indicator for climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greaker, Mads; Stoknes, Per Espen; Alfsen, Knut H.; Ericson, Torgeir

    2012-11-01

    How can the informed citizen know if the government is implementing a good-enough climate change policy? Most developed democracies have their own set of indicators for sustainable development, including indicators for climate change. These include yearly national emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHGs), global concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere and time series for global temperatures. However, without some kind of benchmark neither national emissions of GHGs nor global concentration of GHGs or temperatures, make it possible for the general public to evaluate the current climate policy of a nation state. In this paper we propose a benchmark for national climate policy based on a remaining Co2 budget allocated by egalitarian principles. Moreover, based on Kantian ethics we argue that this benchmark should be used as a sustainable development indicator for climate change. One way of interpreting Kantian ethics is to demand that each nation state should act as if a just global treaty on climate change were in place. We discuss possible important elements in a global treaty, and show how the different elements can be integrated in a forward-looking indicator of national climate policy.(auth)

  7. A forward looking, actor based, indicator for climate gas emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ericson, Torgeir; Randers, Joergen

    2011-04-15

    The most commonly used Norwegian indicator for climate change displays historical emissions and compare with Norway's Kyoto target. This indicator says little about future emissions, about the ongoing Norwegian effort to reduce climate gas emissions, or about its effect on sustainability. In this paper we propose an indicator that improves on these weaknesses. We present a forward looking climate indicator that in addition to historic data includes business as usual scenarios, different proposals for future domestic emissions, and national or international commitments and agreements. This indicator presents - in one graph - a broad diversity of views on how the climate challenge should be handled from now and into the future. This indicator-graph may contribute to a more transparent discussion of available policy options. (Author)

  8. Describing rainfall in northern Australia using multiple climate indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilks Rogers, Cassandra Denise; Beringer, Jason

    2017-02-01

    Savanna landscapes are globally extensive and highly sensitive to climate change, yet the physical processes and climate phenomena which affect them remain poorly understood and therefore poorly represented in climate models. Both human populations and natural ecosystems are highly susceptible to precipitation variation in these regions due to the effects on water and food availability and atmosphere-biosphere energy fluxes. Here we quantify the relationship between climate phenomena and historical rainfall variability in Australian savannas and, in particular, how these relationships changed across a strong rainfall gradient, namely the North Australian Tropical Transect (NATT). Climate phenomena were described by 16 relevant climate indices and correlated against precipitation from 1900 to 2010 to determine the relative importance of each climate index on seasonal, annual and decadal timescales. Precipitation trends, climate index trends and wet season characteristics have also been investigated using linear statistical methods. In general, climate index-rainfall correlations were stronger in the north of the NATT where annual rainfall variability was lower and a high proportion of rainfall fell during the wet season. This is consistent with a decreased influence of the Indian-Australian monsoon from the north to the south. Seasonal variation was most strongly correlated with the Australian Monsoon Index, whereas yearly variability was related to a greater number of climate indices, predominately the Tasman Sea and Indonesian sea surface temperature indices (both of which experienced a linear increase over the duration of the study) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices. These findings highlight the importance of understanding the climatic processes driving variability and, subsequently, the importance of understanding the relationships between rainfall and climatic phenomena in the Northern Territory in order to project future rainfall patterns in the

  9. The Water Level Fall of Lake Megali Prespa (N Greece): an Indicator of Regional Water Stress Driven by Climate Change and Amplified by Water Extraction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Schriek, Tim; Giannakopoulos, Christos

    2014-05-01

    Mediterranean wet-dry events during this period. There are robust indications for a link between lake level and the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is known to strongly influence Mediterranean winter precipitation. Hydro-climatic records show a complicated picture, but tentatively support the conclusion that the unprecedented lake level fall is principally related to climate change. The available fluvial discharge record and most existing snowfall records show statistically significant decreases in annual averages. Annual rainfall only shows a statistically significant decrease of the 25th percentile; 7-month rainfall (Oct-Apr) additionally shows a statistically significant but non-robust decrease of the mean. The modest amount of water extraction (annually: ~14*103m3, ~0.004% of total lake volume) exerts a progressive and significant impact on lake level over the longer term, accounting for ~25% of the observed fall. Lake level lowering ends when lake-surface area shrinkage has led to a decrease in lake-surface evaporation that is equivalent to the amount of water extracted. The adjustment of lake level to stable extraction rates requires two to three decades. This work aims to steer adaptation and mitigation strategies by informing on lake response under different climate change and extraction scenarios. Lake protection is a cost effective solution for supporting global biodiversity and for providing sustainable water resources.

  10. Climate change regional review: Russia

    OpenAIRE

    Sharmina, Maria; Anderson, Kevin; Bows-Larkin, Alice

    2013-01-01

    With climate change, an increasingly important focus of scientific and policy discourse, the Russian government has aimed to position the country as one of the leaders of the global process for addressing climate change. This article reviews a breadth of literature to analyze the politico-economic situation in Russia with regard to international climate change negotiations, related domestic policies, societal attitudes, and climatic change impacts on Russia's territory. The analysis demonstra...

  11. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    The absence of a global agreement on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions calls for adaptation to climate change. The associated paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change...

  12. Climate Change and Natural Disasters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Merkouris, Panos; Negri, Stefania; Maljean-Dubois, Sandrine

    2014-01-01

    Only 21 years ago, in 1992, the first ever convention on climate change, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was signed. The science behind studying climate change and its effects on the environment is not only mind-boggling but still in its infancy. It should come the

  13. Wealth reallocation and sustainability under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenichel, Eli P.; Levin, Simon A.; McCay, Bonnie; St. Martin, Kevin; Abbott, Joshua K.; Pinsky, Malin L.

    2016-03-01

    Climate change is often described as the greatest environmental challenge of our time. In addition, a changing climate can reallocate natural capital, change the value of all forms of capital and lead to mass redistribution of wealth. Here we explain how the inclusive wealth framework provides a means to measure shifts in the amounts and distribution of wealth induced by climate change. Biophysical effects on prices, pre-existing institutions and socio-ecological changes related to shifts in climate cause wealth to change in ways not correlated with biophysical changes. This implies that sustainable development in the face of climate change requires a coherent approach that integrates biophysical and social measurement. Inclusive wealth provides a measure that indicates sustainability and has the added benefit of providing an organizational framework for integrating the multiple disciplines studying global change.

  14. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2013-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  15. Climate Changes around the world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kahl, J.

    2009-07-01

    This presentation addresses several important aspects of the climate changes that are occurring around the globe. the causes of climate change are first reviewed, with illustrations of orbital oscillations, the atmospheric greenhouse effect, and aerosol effects. Observed changes in climate are next reviewed, both thought many millenia and during the past century. Distinctions are made between global warming and regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Changes in the frequency of weather extremes, including heat waves and tropical storms, are also discussed. (Author)

  16. Climate Change and Civil Violence

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vink, G.; Plancherel, Y.; Hennet, C.; Jones, K. D.; Abdullah, A.; Bradshaw, J.; Dee, S.; Deprez, A.; Pasenello, M.; Plaza-Jennings, E.; Roseman, D.; Sopher, P.; Sung, E.

    2009-05-01

    The manifestations of climate change can result in humanitarian impacts that reverse progress in poverty- reduction, create shortages of food and resources, lead to migration, and ultimately result in civil violence and conflict. Within the continent of Africa, we have found that environmentally-related variables are either the cause or the confounding factor for over 80% of the civil violence events during the last 10 years. Using predictive climate models and land-use data, we are able to identify populations in Africa that are likely to experience the most severe climate-related shocks. Through geospatial analysis, we are able to overlay these areas of high risk with assessments of both the local population's resiliency and the region's capacity to respond to climate shocks should they occur. The net result of the analysis is the identification of locations that are becoming particularly vulnerable to future civil violence events (vulnerability hotspots) as a result of the manifestations of climate change. For each population group, over 600 social, economic, political, and environmental indicators are integrated statistically to measures the vulnerability of African populations to environmental change. The indicator time-series are filtered for data availability and redundancy, broadly ordered into four categories (social, political, economic and environmental), standardized and normalized. Within each category, the dominant modes of variability are isolated by principal component analysis and the loadings of each component for each variable are used to devise composite index scores. Comparisons of past vulnerability with known environmentally-related conflicts demonstrates the role that such vulnerability hotspot maps can play in evaluating both the potential for, and the significance of, environmentally-related civil violence events. Furthermore, the analysis reveals the major variables that are responsible for the population's vulnerability and therefore

  17. Communicating Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, M. E.

    2009-12-01

    I will discuss the various challenges scientists must confront in efforts to communicate the science and implications of climate change to the public. Among these challenges is the stiff headwind we must fight of a concerted disinformation effort designed to confuse the public about the nature of our scientific understanding of the problem and the reality of the underlying societal threat. We also must fight the legacy of the public’s perception of the scientist. That is to say, we must strive to communicate in plainspoken language that neither insults the intelligence of our audience, nor hopelessly loses them in jargon and science-speak. And through all of this, we must maintain our composure and good humor even in the face of what we might consider the vilest of tactics by our opposition. When it comes to how best to get our message out to the broader public, I don’t pretend to have all of the answers. But I will share some insights and anecdotes that I have accumulated over the course of my own efforts to inform the public about the reality of climate change and the potential threat that it represents.

  18. Politics of climate change belief

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Donald Trump's actions during the election and his first weeks as US president-elect send a strong message about his belief in climate change, or lack thereof. However, these actions may reflect polarization of climate change beliefs, not climate mitigation behaviour.

  19. Climate Change and Water Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA tools and workbooks guide users to mitigate and adapt to climate change impacts. Various tools can help manage risks, others can visualize climate projections in maps. Included are comprehensive tool kits hosted by other federal agencies.

  20. Climate Change and Water Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    To take action on climate impacts, practitioners must understand how climate change will effect their region, and the country. Training provided here by EPA and partners allow users to better grasp the issues and make decisions based on current science.

  1. Climate Change and Poverty Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Simon

    2011-08-15

    Climate change will make it increasingly difficult to achieve and sustain development goals. This is largely because climate effects on poverty remain poorly understood, and poverty reduction strategies do not adequately support climate resilience. Ensuring effective development in the face of climate change requires action on six fronts: investing in a stronger climate and poverty evidence base; applying the learning about development effectiveness to how we address adaptation needs; supporting nationally derived, integrated policies and programmes; including the climate-vulnerable poor in developing strategies; and identifying how mitigation strategies can also reduce poverty and enable adaptation.

  2. Philosophy of climate science part I: observing climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Frigg, Roman; Thompson, Erica; Werndl, Charlotte

    2015-01-01

    This is the first of three parts of an introduction to the philosophy of climate science. In this first part about observing climate change, the topics of definitions of climate and climate change, data sets and data models, detection of climate change, and attribution of climate change will be discussed.

  3. Climate change and marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Anthony J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Brander, Keith

    2012-01-01

    A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change...... ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC......) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change...

  4. Climate Change Mitigation A Balanced Approach to Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a fresh and innovative perspective on climate change policy. By emphasizing the multiple facets of climate policy, from mitigation to adaptation, from technological innovation and diffusion to governance issues, it contains a comprehensive overview of the economic and policy dimensions of the climate problem. The keyword of the book is balance. The book clarifies that climate change cannot be controlled by sacrificing economic growth and many other urgent global issues. At the same time, action to control climate change cannot be delayed, even though gradually implemented. Therefore, on the one hand climate policy becomes pervasive and affects all dimensions of international policy. On the other hand, climate policy cannot be too ambitious: a balanced approach between mitigation and adaptation, between economic growth and resource management, between short term development efforts and long term innovation investments, should be adopted. I recommend its reading. Carlo Carraro, President, Ca�...

  5. Preparing for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holdgate, M

    1989-01-01

    There is a distinct probability that humankind is changing the climate and at the same time raising the sea level of the world. The most plausible projections we have now suggest a rise in mean world temperature of between 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2030--just 40 years hence. This is a bigger change in a smaller period than we know of in the experience of the earth's ecosystems and human societies. It implies that by 2030 the earth will be warmer than at any time in the past 120,000 years. In the same period, we are likely to see a rise of 15-30 centimeters in sea level, partly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and partly to the expansion of the warmer seas. This may not seem much--but it comes on top of the 12-centimeter rise in the past century and we should recall that over 1/2 the world's population lives in zones on or near coasts. A quarter meter rise in sea level could have drastic consequences for countries like the Maldives or the Netherlands, where much of the land lies below the 2-meter contour. The cause of climate change is known as the 'greenhouse effect'. Greenhouse glass has the property that it is transparent to radiation coming in from the sun, but holds back radiation to space from the warmed surfaces inside the greenhouse. Certain gases affect the atmosphere in the same way. There are 5 'greenhouse gases' and we have been roofing ourselves with them all: carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25% above preindustrial levels and are likely to double within a century, due to tropical forest clearance and especially to the burning of increasing quantities of coal and other fossil fuels; methane concentrations are now twice their preindustrial levels as a result of releases from agriculture; nitrous oxide has increased due to land clearance for agriculture, use of fertilizers, and fossil fuel combustion; ozone levels near the earth's surface have increased due mainly to pollution from motor vehicles; and

  6. Conflict in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carleton, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, M.

    2016-05-01

    A growing body of research illuminates the role that changes in climate have had on violent conflict and social instability in the recent past. Across a diversity of contexts, high temperatures and irregular rainfall have been causally linked to a range of conflict outcomes. These findings can be paired with climate model output to generate projections of the impact future climate change may have on conflicts such as crime and civil war. However, there are large degrees of uncertainty in such projections, arising from (i) the statistical uncertainty involved in regression analysis, (ii) divergent climate model predictions, and (iii) the unknown ability of human societies to adapt to future climate change. In this article, we review the empirical evidence of the climate-conflict relationship, provide insight into the likely extent and feasibility of adaptation to climate change as it pertains to human conflict, and discuss new methods that can be used to provide projections that capture these three sources of uncertainty.

  7. Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 2. Future climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sillmann, J.; Kharin, V. V.; Zwiers, F. W.; Zhang, X.; Bronaugh, D.

    2013-03-01

    This study provides an overview of projected changes in climate extremes indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The temperature- and precipitation-based indices are computed with a consistent methodology for climate change simulations using different emission scenarios in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensembles. We analyze changes in the indices on global and regional scales over the 21st century relative to the reference period 1981-2000. In general, changes in indices based on daily minimum temperatures are found to be more pronounced than in indices based on daily maximum temperatures. Extreme precipitation generally increases faster than total wet-day precipitation. In regions, such as Australia, Central America, South Africa, and the Mediterranean, increases in consecutive dry days coincide with decreases in heavy precipitation days and maximum consecutive 5 day precipitation, which indicates future intensification of dry conditions. Particularly for the precipitation-based indices, there can be a wide disagreement about the sign of change between the models in some regions. Changes in temperature and precipitation indices are most pronounced under RCP8.5, with projected changes exceeding those discussed in previous studies based on SRES scenarios. The complete set of indices is made available via the ETCCDI indices archive to encourage further studies on the various aspects of changes in extremes.

  8. Adapting agriculture to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Howden, S.M.; Soussana, J.F.; Tubiello, F.N.; Chhetri, N.; Dunlop, M.; Meinke, H.B.

    2007-01-01

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of exi

  9. Cinematic climate change, a promising perspective on climate change communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakellari, Maria

    2015-10-01

    Previous research findings display that after having seen popular climate change films, people became more concerned, more motivated and more aware of climate change, but changes in behaviors were short-term. This article performs a meta-analysis of three popular climate change films, The Day after Tomorrow (2005), An Inconvenient Truth (2006), and The Age of Stupid (2009), drawing on research in social psychology, human agency, and media effect theory in order to formulate a rationale about how mass media communication shapes our everyday life experience. This article highlights the factors with which science blends in the reception of the three climate change films and expands the range of options considered in order to encourage people to engage in climate change mitigation actions.

  10. Sewer Systems and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Brandsma, T.

    1993-01-01

    In this article the impact of climate change on the overflows of sewer systems is assessed. The emphasis is on the overflows of combined sewer systems. The purpose is twofold: first, to obtain a first-order estimate of the impact of climate change on overflows of sewer systems; and second, to obtain insight into the relevant meteorological variables that are important with respect to climate change. A reservoir model is used to assess the impact of climate change on several combinations of st...

  11. Climate change mitigation in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Bo

    2012-07-01

    China has been experiencing great economic development and fast urbanisation since its reforms and opening-up policy in 1978. However, these changes are reliant on consumption of primary energy, especially coal, characterised by high pollution and low efficiency. China's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) being the most significant contributor, have also been increasing rapidly in the past three decades. Responding to both domestic challenges and international pressure regarding energy, climate change and environment, the Chinese government has made a point of addressing climate change since the early 2000s. This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of China's CO{sub 2} emissions and policy instruments for mitigating climate change. In the analysis, China's CO{sub 2} emissions in recent decades were reviewed and the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis examined. Using the mostly frequently studied macroeconomic factors and time-series data for the period of 1980-2008, the existence of an EKC relationship between CO{sub 2} per capita and GDP per capita was verified. However, China's CO{sub 2} emissions will continue to grow over coming decades and the turning point in overall CO{sub 2} emissions will appear in 2078 according to a crude projection. More importantly, CO{sub 2} emissions will not spontaneously decrease if China continues to develop its economy without mitigating climate change. On the other hand, CO{sub 2} emissions could start to decrease if substantial efforts are made. China's present mitigation target, i.e. to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 compared with the 2005 level, was then evaluated. Three business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios were developed and compared with the level of emissions according to the mitigation target. The calculations indicated that decreasing the CO{sub 2} intensity of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 is a challenging but hopeful target. To

  12. Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate

  13. NASA Nice Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frink, K.; Crocker, S.; Jones, W., III; Marshall, S. S.; Anuradha, D.; Stewart-Gurley, K.; Howard, E. M.; Hill, E.; Merriweather, E.

    2013-12-01

    Authors: 1 Kaiem Frink, 4 Sherry Crocker, 5 Willie Jones, III, 7 Sophia S.L. Marshall, 6 Anuadha Dujari 3 Ervin Howard 1 Kalota Stewart-Gurley 8 Edwinta Merriweathe Affiliation: 1. Mathematics & Computer Science, Virginia Union University, Richmond, VA, United States. 2. Mathematics & Computer Science, Elizabeth City State Univ, Elizabeth City, NC, United States. 3. Education, Elizabeth City State University, Elizabeth City, NC, United States. 4. College of Education, Fort Valley State University , Fort Valley, GA, United States. 5. Education, Tougaloo College, Jackson, MS, United States. 6. Mathematics, Delaware State University, Dover, DE, United States. 7. Education, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS, United States. 8. Education, Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical University, Huntsville, AL, United States. ABSTRACT: In this research initiative, the 2013-2014 NASA NICE workshop participants will present best educational practices for incorporating climate change pedagogy. The presentation will identify strategies to enhance instruction of pre-service teachers to aligned with K-12 Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) standards. The presentation of best practices should serve as a direct indicator to address pedagogical needs to include climate education within a K-12 curriculum Some of the strategies will include inquiry, direct instructions, and cooperative learning . At this particular workshop, we have learned about global climate change in regards to how this is going to impact our life. Participants have been charged to increase the scientific understanding of pre-service teachers education programs nationally to incorporate climate education lessons. These recommended practices will provide feasible instructional strategies that can be easily implemented and used to clarify possible misconceptions and ambiguities in scientific knowledge. Additionally, the presentation will promote an awareness to the many facets in which climate

  14. Climate Change: The Evidence and Our Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Lonnie G.

    2010-01-01

    Glaciers serve as early indicators of climate change. Over the last 35 years, our research team has recovered ice-core records of climatic and environmental variations from the polar regions and from low-latitude high-elevation ice fields from 16 countries. The ongoing widespread melting of high-elevation glaciers and ice caps, particularly in low…

  15. Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

    2014-12-01

    Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

  16. Climate variability and change

    CERN Document Server

    Grassl, H

    1998-01-01

    Many factors influence climate. The present knowledge concerning the climate relevance of earth orbital parameters, solar luminosity, volcanoes, internal interactions, and human activities will be reported as well as the vulnerability of emission scenarios for given stabilization goals for greenhouse gas concentrations and the main points of the Kyoto Protocol

  17. Agricultural Producer Perceptions of Climate Change and Climate Education Needs for the Central Great Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hibbs, Amber Campbell; Kahl, Daniel; PytlikZillig, Lisa; Champion, Ben; Abdel-Monem, Tarik; Steffensmeier, Timothy; Rice, Charles W.; Hubbard, Kenneth

    2014-01-01

    The Central Great Plains Climate Education Partnership conducted focus groups throughout Kansas to gain a better understanding of farmer perceptions and attitudes towards climate change education. Results indicate concern about climatic changes, even if producers are unsure that "human caused climate change" is occurring. Participants…

  18. Climate and desertification: indicators for an assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sciortino, M.; Caiaffa, E.; Fattoruso, G.; Donolo, R.; Salvetti, G.

    2009-07-01

    This work aims to define a methodology that, on the basis of commonly available surface climate records, assesses indicators of the increase or decrease of the extension of territories vulnerable to desertification and land degradation. The definition and quantification of environmental policy relevant indicators aims to improve the understanding and the decision making processes in dry lands. the results of this study show that since 1931 changes of climate involved 90% of the territory of the Sicilian region, with stronger intensity in the internal areas of Enna, Caltanissetta and Palermo provinces. (Author) 9 refs.

  19. Climate change refugia as a tool for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change so as to increase persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources, are considered as potential adaptation options in the face of anthropogenic climate change. In a collaboration ...

  20. Abrupt climate change and extinction events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowley, Thomas J.

    1988-01-01

    There is a growing body of theoretical and empirical support for the concept of instabilities in the climate system, and indications that abrupt climate change may in some cases contribute to abrupt extinctions. Theoretical indications of instabilities can be found in a broad spectrum of climate models (energy balance models, a thermohaline model of deep-water circulation, atmospheric general circulation models, and coupled ocean-atmosphere models). Abrupt transitions can be of several types and affect the environment in different ways. There is increasing evidence for abrupt climate change in the geologic record and involves both interglacial-glacial scale transitions and the longer-term evolution of climate over the last 100 million years. Records from the Cenozoic clearly show that the long-term trend is characterized by numerous abrupt steps where the system appears to be rapidly moving to a new equilibrium state. The long-term trend probably is due to changes associated with plate tectonic processes, but the abrupt steps most likely reflect instabilities in the climate system as the slowly changing boundary conditions caused the climate to reach some threshold critical point. A more detailed analysis of abrupt steps comes from high-resolution studies of glacial-interglacial fluctuations in the Pleistocene. Comparison of climate transitions with the extinction record indicates that many climate and biotic transitions coincide. The Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction is not a candidate for an extinction event due to instabilities in the climate system. It is quite possible that more detailed comparisons and analysis will indicate some flaws in the climate instability-extinction hypothesis, but at present it appears to be a viable candidate as an alternate mechanism for causing abrupt environmental changes and extinctions.

  1. Ground Water and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; MacDonald, Alan; Fan, Ying; Maxwell, Reed M.; Yechieli, Yossi; Gurdak, Jason J.; Allen, Diana M.; Shamsudduha, Mohammad; Hiscock, Kevin; Yeh, Pat J. -F; Holman, Ian; Treidel, Holger

    2013-01-01

    As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

  2. Sewer Systems and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandsma, T.

    1993-01-01

    In this article the impact of climate change on the overflows of sewer systems is assessed. The emphasis is on the overflows of combined sewer systems. The purpose is twofold: first, to obtain a first-order estimate of the impact of climate change on overflows of sewer systems; and second, to obtain

  3. Ground water and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Taylor, R.G.; Scanlon, B.; Döll, P.; Rodell, M.; Beek, R. van; Wada, Y.; Longuevergne, L.; Leblanc, M.; Famiglietti, J.S.; Edmunds, M.; Konikow, L.; Green, T.R.; Chen, J.; Taniguchi, M.; Bierkens, M.F.P.; MacDonald, A.; Fan, Y.; Maxwell, R.M.; Yechieli, Y.; Gurdak, J.J.; Allen, D.M.; Shamsudduha, M.; Hiscock, K.; Yeh, Pat J.-F.; Holman, Ian; Treidel, Holger

    2012-01-01

    As the world’s largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate chang

  4. Dune erosion under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Winter, R.C.

    2014-01-01

    This PhD-thesis investigated the effect of future climate change on dune erosion in the Netherlands. At present, dune erosion occurs under a combination of large storm surge and high waves, which are both generated by a storm event. Therefore to investigate the affect of future climate change on dun

  5. Generating Arguments about Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, Barry; Grooms, Jonathon; Sampson, Victor; Oliveri, Robin

    2012-01-01

    This unit is a different and fun way to engage students with an extremely important topic, climate change, which cuts across scientific and nonscientific disciplines. While climate change itself may not be listed in the curriculum of every science class, the authors contend that such a unit is appropriate for virtually any science curriculum.…

  6. Climate change, responsibility, and justice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamieson, Dale

    2010-09-01

    In this paper I make the following claims. In order to see anthropogenic climate change as clearly involving moral wrongs and global injustices, we will have to revise some central concepts in these domains. Moreover, climate change threatens another value ("respect for nature") that cannot easily be taken up by concerns of global justice or moral responsibility.

  7. Teaching about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heffron, Susan Gallagher; Valmond, Kharra

    2011-01-01

    Students are exposed to many different media reports about global climate change. Movies such as "The Day After Tomorrow" and "Ice Age" are examples of instances when movie producers have sought to capture the attention of audiences by augmenting the challenges that climate change poses. Students may receive information from a wide range of media…

  8. Climate change challenges for SEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    This paper takes a theoretical perspective on the challenges that climate changes pose for SEA. The theoretical framework used is the sociologist Ulrich Beck’s theory of risk society and the aspects that characterise this society. Climate change is viewed as a risk, and the theory is used to derive...

  9. Climate change science compendium 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McMullen, C.P.; Jabbour, J.

    2009-09-15

    In a matter of a few weeks' time, governments will gather in Copenhagen, Denmark, for a crucial UN climate convention meeting. Many governments and stakeholders have requested an annual snapshot of how the science has been evolving since the publication of the IPCC's landmark fourth assessment in advance of the panel's next one in 2014. This Climate Change Science Compendium, based on the wealth of peerreviewed research published by researchers and institutions since 2006, has been compiled by UNEP in response to that request. The findings indicate that ever more rapid environmental change is underway with the pace and the scale of climate change accelerating, along with the confidence among researchers in their forecasts. The Arctic, with implications for the globe, is emerging as an area of major concern. There is growing evidence that the ice there is melting far faster than had been previously supposed. Mountains glaciers also appear to be retreating faster. Scientists now suggest that the Arctic could be virtually ice free in September of 2037 and that a nearly ice-free September by 2028 is well within the realms of possibility. Recent findings also show that significant warming extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsula to cover most of West Antarctica, an area of warming much larger than previously reported. The impact on the Earth's multi-trillion dollar ecosystems is also a key area of concern. Under a high emission scenario-the one that most closely matches current trends-12-39 per cent of the planet's terrestrial surface could experience novel climate conditions and 10-48 per cent could suffer disappearing climates by 2100. Rising levels of aridity are also concentrating scientific minds. New research indicates that by the end of the 21st century the Mediterranean region will also experience much more severe increases in aridity than previously estimated rendering the entire region, but particularly the southern Mediterranean

  10. Climate change experiments in Hamburg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubasch, U. [DKRZ, Hamburg (Germany)

    1995-12-31

    Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the simulations with present day conditions (1980-1990) is too late, because then a considerable part of the warming since the beginning of the industrialization (ca. 1750) has been neglected. Furthermore it has only recently become clear that the sulphat-aerosols play an important role in the present day climate and in the future climate. The effect of the sulphat aerosols has first been simulated in a number of equilibrium simulations with mixed layer models, but nowadays with globally coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models

  11. Climate change or variable weather

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baron, Nina; Kjerulf Petersen, Lars

    2015-01-01

    Climate scenarios predict that an effect of climate change will be more areas at risk of extensive flooding. This article builds on a qualitative case study of homeowners in the flood-prone area of Lolland in Denmark and uses the theories of Tim Ingold and Bruno Latour to rethink the way we...... understand homeowners’ perception of climate change and local flood risk. Ingold argues that those perceptions are shaped by people’s experiences with and connections to their local landscape. People experience the local variability of the weather, and not global climate change as presented in statistical...... data and models. This influences the way they understand the future risks of climate change. Concurrently, with the theory of Latour, we can understand how those experiences with the local landscape are mediated by the existing water-managing technologies such as pumps and dikes. These technologies...

  12. Global change and climate-vegetation classification

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    Three phrases of the quantitative study of climate-vegetation classification and their characteristics are presented based on the review of advance in climate-vegetation interaction, a key issue of "global change and terrestrial ecosystems (GCTE)" which is the core project of International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP): (ⅰ) characterized by the correlation between natural vegetation types and climate; (ⅱ) characterized by climatic indices which have obviously been restricted to plant ecophysiology; (ⅲ) characterized by coupling both structure and function of vegetation. Thus, the prospective of climate-vegetation classification for global change study in China was proposed, especially the study coupling climate-vegetation classification models with atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) was emphasized.

  13. In Brief: Action on climate change urged

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    2008-06-01

    The science academies of the G8 countries-along with those in China, India, Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa-on 10 June issued a joint statement urging leaders at July's G8 Summit in Japan to take action on climate change. The statement indicates, ``Responding to climate change requires both mitigation and adaptation to achieve a transition to a low carbon society and our global sustainability objectives.'' In the statement, the academies urge all nations, and particularly those participating in the summit, to take a series of actions to deal with climate change. The statement is available at http://www.nationalacademies.org/includes/climatechangestatement.pdf.

  14. Signs of climate change in Nordic nature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Maria; Jensen, Trine Susanne; Normander, Bo

    the most relevant indicators. It is important to stress that by selecting a set of indicators rather than individual indicators, it is then possible to evaluate more general trends and not solely separate developments. The amount and quality of data vary between the selected indicators; monitoring data...... are occurring concurrently and on multiple scales. Important signs of climate change include: pollen and growing seasons beginning earlier; fish stocks shifting northwards; bird populations adapting to a changing climate; sensitive natural phenomena such as palsa mires declining in distribution; and polar bears...

  15. Methods for extracting climate indicator data from social media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuka, M. Z.; Fuka, D. R.

    2011-12-01

    This paper shows how we've used the R software suite to extract climate indicator data from Twitter. In the course of this research we've collected extensive data sets of unsolicited observations ("tweets") for hundreds of climate-related phenological, biological, epidemiological and meteorological effects. R has proved itself in our work as a useful tool for manipulating those large data sets. Our experience from this effort has yielded a variety of insights on using R to extract geophysics-specific information from publicly accessible social media sources. We illustrate our methodology by mapping tweeted US armadillo sightings to explore the impact of climate variability on the extent of the animal's range. This example usefully demonstrates R's technical capabilities in collecting, time-stamping, geolocating, analyzing, visualizing and otherwise processing climate-related data derived from unsolicited social media postings. We also "mash-up" the data sets with those acquired by more traditional means, for example, temperature and precipitation data across the armadillo's US range. Our data-handling practice is extendable to social sharing services other than Twitter, providing the environmental modeling community an opportunity to access largely untapped resources of non-traditional climate indicator data to better understand the effects of climate change at local, regional and global scales.

  16. General Chemistry Students' Understanding of Climate Change and the Chemistry Related to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Versprille, Ashley N.; Towns, Marcy H.

    2015-01-01

    While much is known about secondary students' perspectives of climate change, rather less is known about undergraduate students' perspectives. The purpose of this study is to investigate general chemistry students' understanding of the chemistry underlying climate change. Findings that emerged from the analysis of the 24 interviews indicate that…

  17. Risk communication on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wardekker, J.A.

    2004-10-01

    For the title study use has been made of available scientific literature, results of new surveys and interviews. In the first part of the study attention is paid to the exchange of information between parties involved in climate change and differences in supply and demand of information. In the second part citizens' views on climate change, problems with communication on climate change, and the resulting consequences and options for communication are dealt with. In this second part also barriers to action that are related or influenced by communication are taken into consideration.

  18. Climatic change; Le Changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perthuis, Ch. de [Universite de Paris-Dauphine, 75 - Paris (France); Caisse des depots, Mission climat, 75 - Paris (France); Delbosc, A. [Caisse des depots, Mission climat, 75 - Paris (France)

    2009-07-01

    Received ideas about climatic change are a mixture of right and wrong information. The authors use these ideas as starting points to shade light on what we really know and what we believe to know. The book is divided in three main chapters: should we act in front of climatic change? How can we efficiently act? How can we equitably act? For each chapter a series of received ideas is analyzed in order to find those which can usefully contribute to mitigate the environmental, economical and social impacts of climatic change. (J.S.)

  19. Inhalation anaesthetics and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mads Peter Sulbæk; Sander, S P; Nielsen, O J

    2010-01-01

    Although the increasing abundance of CO(2) in our atmosphere is the main driver of the observed climate change, it is the cumulative effect of all forcing agents that dictate the direction and magnitude of the change, and many smaller contributors are also at play. Isoflurane, desflurane......, and sevoflurane are widely used inhalation anaesthetics. Emissions of these compounds contribute to radiative forcing of climate change. To quantitatively assess the impact of the anaesthetics on the forcing of climate, detailed information on their properties of heat (infrared, IR) absorption and atmospheric...

  20. Coping with climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zheng, Yuan; Byg, Anja

    2014-01-01

    found across villages regarding the degree of perceived sensitivity and responses despite similar exposure to climate extremes. These differences are partly related to the nature of events and varied socio-economic characteristics of households, which influence their vulnerability and ability to cope...

  1. Deliberating Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agger, Annika; Jelsøe, Erling; Jæger, Birgit

    to include the voice of the citizens into complex scientific and technological issues. The purpose of WWV was to pass on the opinions of ordinary citizens to political decision-makers at The United Nations Climate Summit, COP15, in Copenhagen in December 2009. The authors made a study of the Danish WWV event...

  2. Changing heathlands in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ransijn, Johannes

    ) a study on the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2-concentration, warming and drought on the photosynthetic capacity and phenology of C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in an outdoor climate change experiment on a grassy heathland in Denmark; 4) a study on climate change impacts on the competitive interactions...... and flexibly reduces its green biomass under drought conditions. C. vulgaris is less flexible and hardly adjusts photosynthetic capacity or green biomass to drought or warming. Despite these differential responses, competitive interactions were robust. C. vulgaris, in the building phase, outcompetes D...... plant communities. Many heathlands have shifted from dwarf shrub dominance to grass dominance and climatic change might affect the competitive balance between dwarf shrubs and grasses. We looked at heathland vegetation dynamics and heathland plant responses to climatic change at different spatial...

  3. Can Climate Change Negotiations Succeed?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Hovi

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available More than two decades of climate change negotiations have produced a series of global climate agreements, such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Copenhagen Accords, but have nevertheless made very limited progress in curbing global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper considers whether negotiations can succeed in reaching an agreement that effectively addresses the climate change problem. To be effective, a climate agreement must cause substantial emissions reductions either directly (in the agreement's own lifetime or indirectly (by paving the way for a future agreement that causes substantial emissions reductions directly. To reduce global emissions substantially, an agreement must satisfy three conditions. Firstly, participation must be both comprehensive and stable. Secondly, participating countries must accept deep commitments. Finally, the agreement must obtain high compliance rates. We argue that three types of enforcement will be crucial to fulfilling these three conditions: (1 incentives for countries to ratify with deep commitments, (2 incentives for countries that have ratified with deep commitments to abstain from withdrawal, and (3 incentives for countries having ratified with deep commitments to comply with them. Based on assessing the constraints that characterize the climate change negotiations, we contend that adopting such three-fold potent enforcement will likely be politically infeasible, not only within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, but also in the framework of a more gradual approach. Therefore, one should not expect climate change negotiations to succeed in producing an effective future agreement—either directly or indirectly.

  4. Climate change and group dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postmes, Tom

    2015-01-01

    The characteristics and views of people sceptical about climate change have been analysed extensively. A study now confirms that sceptics in the US have some characteristics of a social movement, but shows that the same group dynamics propel believers

  5. Cities lead on climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pancost, Richard D.

    2016-04-01

    The need to mitigate climate change opens up a key role for cities. Bristol's year as a Green Capital led to great strides forward, but it also revealed that a creative and determined partnership across cultural divides will be necessary.

  6. Climate change and water resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Younos, Tamim [The Cabell Brand Center for Global Poverty and Resource Sustainability Studies, Salem, VA (United States); Grady, Caitlin A. (ed.) [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Ecological Sciences and Engineering Program

    2013-07-01

    This volume presents nine chapters prepared by international authors and highlighting various aspects of climate change and water resources. Climate change models and scenarios, particularly those related to precipitation projection, are discussed and uncertainties and data deficiencies that affect the reliability of predictions are identified. The potential impacts of climate change on water resources (including quality) and on crop production are analyzed and adaptation strategies for crop production are offered. Furthermore, case studies of climate change mitigation strategies, such as the reduction of water use and conservation measures in urban environments, are included. This book will serve as a valuable reference work for researchers and students in water and environmental sciences, as well as for governmental agencies and policy makers.

  7. Climate Change Science Program Collection

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Collection consists of publications and other resources produced between 2007 and 2009 by the CCSP with the intention of...

  8. Climate change: Unattributed hurricane damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallegatte, Stéphane

    2015-11-01

    In the United States, hurricanes have been causing more and more economic damage. A reanalysis of the disaster database using a statistical method that accounts for improvements in resilience opens the possibility that climate change has played a role.

  9. Making Sense of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blichfeldt, Nikolaj Vendelbo

    The thesis is an ethnographic description of a climate change mitigation campaign among retirees in the urban residential community Dongping Lane in central Hangzhou, and an examination of local understandings of connections between everyday life in the community and global climate change......, as a point of departure for an examination of what happens when a requirement to save energy and resources, as a response to global climate change, encounters local ways of knowing the world. Developed through meetings, workshops, competitions and the promotion of exemplary individuals, the campaign...... is conceived as part of wider state-sponsored efforts to foster civilized behavior and a sense of belonging to the residential community among urban citizens in China. The campaigners connect unspectacular everyday consumer practices with climate change and citizenship by showing that among them, making...

  10. Welfare impacts of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hof, Andries F.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change can affect well-being in poor economies more than previously shown if its effect on economic growth, and not only on current production, is considered. But this result does not necessarily suggest greater mitigation efforts are required.

  11. Responsible Reaction To Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    China calls for turning UNFCCC provisions into concrete actions Never before has climate change been as prominent on the public agenda as it is today.Its rele- vance was highlighted once again when more than 10,000 delegates from over 180 countries flocked to Bali early this month to discuss the topic.Environment officials as well as representatives from intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations gath- ered on the Indonesian island on December 3-14 for the UN Climate Change Conference.

  12. Climate Change and National Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-01

    atmosphere, which is causing warming of global temperatures as well as more extreme and less predictable weather patterns. While this issue is debated in...develop unique, policy-relevant solutions to complex global challenges. About the CCAPS Program The Climate Change and African Political Stability...political circles, scientists overwhelmingly agree that human-induced or anthropogenic climate change is real. Given the complexity of the issue, there

  13. Social protection and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnson, Craig; Bansha Dulal, Hari; Prowse, Martin Philip

    2013-01-01

    This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject.......This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject....

  14. Climate Change in Developing Countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Drunen, M.A.; Lasage, R.; Dorlands, C. (eds.) [Free University, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2006-09-15

    This book presents an overview of the studies conducted by the Netherlands Climate Change Studies Assistance programme. The programme was set up in recognition of the need for developing countries, in particular, to face the challenges confronting all countries under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The book presents an overview of the main results in 13 countries: Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Egypt, Ghana, Kazakhstan, Mali, Mongolia, Senegal, Surinam, Vietnam, Yemen and Zimbabwe. It provides a critical evaluation of the methodologies and approaches used, a cross-country synthesis and recommendations for further studies. Subjects dealt with include not only impact studies, but also vulnerability and adaptation, mitigation and climate related policy.

  15. Update on global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Carol J

    2010-01-01

    Global climate change brings new challenges to the control of infectious diseases. Since many waterborne and vector-borne pathogens are highly sensitive to temperature and rainfall, health risks resulting from a warming and more variable climate are potentially huge. Global climate change involves the entire world, but the poorest countries will suffer the most. Nations are coming together to address what can be done to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and cope with inevitable temperature increases. A key component of any comprehensive mitigation and adaptation plan is a strong public health infrastructure across the world. Nothing less than global public health security is at stake.

  16. SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS FOR EDUCATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ILONA PAJTÓK-TARI

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper surveys the key statements of the IPCC (2007 Reportbased mainly on the satellite-borne observations to support teaching climatechange and geography by using the potential of this technology. In theIntroduction we briefly specify the potential and the constraints of remote sensing.Next the key climate variables for indicating the changes are surveyed. Snow andsea-ice changes are displayed as examples for these applications. Testing theclimate models is a two-sided task involving satellites, as well. Validation of theability of reconstructing the present climate is the one side of the coin, whereassensitivity of the climate system is another key task, leading to consequences onthe reality of the projected changes. Finally some concluding remarks arecompiled, including a few ideas on the ways how these approaches can be appliedfor education of climate change.

  17. CLIMATE CHANGES: CAUSES AND IMPACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Slave

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Present brings several environmental problems for people. Many of these are closely related, but by far the most important problem is the climate change. In the course of Earth evolution, climate has changed many times, sometimes dramatically. Warmer eras always replaced and were in turn replaced by glacial ones. However, the climate of the past almost ten thousand years has been very stable. During this period human civilization has also developed. In the past nearly 100 years - since the beginning of industrialization - the global average temperature has increased by approx. 0.6 ° C (after IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, faster than at any time in the last 1000 years.

  18. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmgren, K.; Karlen, W. [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography

    1998-12-01

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  19. AL:PE - Acidification of Mountain Lakes: Palaeolimnology and Ecology. Part 2 - Remote Mountain Lakes as Indicators of Air Pollution and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wathne, Bente M.; Patrick, Simon; Cameron, Nigel [eds.

    1997-07-01

    AL:PE is a multi-disciplinary and multi-national project coordinated by research groups in London and Oslo. It is funded by the European Commission, The project is described in this report. The project is the first comprehensive study of remote mountain lakes on a European scale. It is concerned with ecosystems in the arctic and alpine regions of Europe that are threatened by acid deposition, toxic air pollutants and climatic change despite their remoteness. The studies are important not only for ecosystems of the lakes, for which they were designed, but for the arctic and alpine regions in general, since the lakes with their sediment records act as environmental sensors. The AL:PE results illustrate two overarching issues: (1) the importance of these remote and sensitive ecosystems as sensors of long-range transported pollutants and as providers of early warning signals for more widespread environmental change; and (2) the importance and urgency of understanding the present and future impact of pollutants, both singly and in combination, on aquatic ecosystems. Currently, acid deposition is considered the most potent threat. In the context of global warming, however, it is a formidable scientific challenge to disentangle the interactions between the effects of changing deposition patterns of acids, nutrients, trace metals and trace organics. The AL:PE programme has begun to address this challenge and its successor EU project, MOLAR, is designed to tackle the issues more more specifically by focusing on in-depth studies of key sites. 97 refs., 192 figs., 100 tabs.

  20. International Peer Collaboration to Learn about Global Climate Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korsager, Majken; Slotta, James D.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is not local; it is global. This means that many environmental issues related to climate change are not geographically limited and hence concern humans in more than one location. There is a growing body of research indicating that today's increased climate change is caused by human activities and our modern lifestyle. Consequently,…

  1. Ocean Observations of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Don

    2016-01-01

    The ocean influences climate by storing and transporting large amounts of heat, freshwater, and carbon, and exchanging these properties with the atmosphere. About 93% of the excess heat energy stored by the earth over the last 50 years is found in the ocean. More than three quarters of the total exchange of water between the atmosphere and the earth's surface through evaporation and precipitation takes place over the oceans. The ocean contains 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere and is at present acting to slow the rate of climate change by absorbing one quarter of human emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, cement production, deforestation and other land use change.Here I summarize the observational evidence of change in the ocean, with an emphasis on basin- and global-scale changes relevant to climate. These include: changes in subsurface ocean temperature and heat content, evidence for regional changes in ocean salinity and their link to changes in evaporation and precipitation over the oceans, evidence of variability and change of ocean current patterns relevant to climate, observations of sea level change and predictions over the next century, and biogeochemical changes in the ocean, including ocean acidification.

  2. Climate Change in New England | Energy and Global Climate ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-10

    EPA Region 1's Energy and Climate Unit and Oceans and Coastal Unit provide information and technical assistance on climate change impacts and adaptation, resilience and preparedness to climate disruptions

  3. Climate change adaptation in Ethiopia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weldegebriel, Zerihun Berhane; Prowse, Martin

    Ethiopia is vulnerable to climate change due to its limited development and dependence on agriculture. Social protection schemes like the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) can play a positive role in promoting livelihoods and enhancing households’ risk management. This article examines......, they suggest the PSNP may not be helping smallholders diversify income sources in a positive manner for climate adaptation. The article concludes by arguing for further investigation of the PSNP’s influence on smallholders’ adaptation strategies....

  4. Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chance, Paul; Heward, William L.

    2010-01-01

    In "Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge," we conclude the special section by assuming that you have been persuaded by Thompson's paper or other evidence that global warming is real and poses a threat that must be dealt with, and that for now the only way to deal with it is by changing behavior. Then we ask what you, as behavior analysts, can do…

  5. Health Effects of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... resulting health effects. Extreme weather events due to climate change may cause people to experience geographic displacement, damage to their property, loss of loved ones, and chronic stress—all of which can negatively affect ... change may be associated with staple food shortages, malnutrition, ...

  6. Dislocated interests and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Steven J.; Diffenbaugh, Noah

    2016-06-01

    The predicted effects of climate change on surface temperatures are now emergent and quantifiable. The recent letter by Hansen and Sato (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 034009) adds to a growing number of studies showing that warming over the past four decades has shifted the distribution of temperatures higher almost everywhere, with the largest relative effects on summer temperatures in developing regions such as Africa, South America, southeast Asia, and the Middle East (e.g., Diffenbaugh and Scherer 2011 Clim. Change 107 615-24 Anderson 2011 Clim. Change 108 581; Mahlstein et al 2012 Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L21711). Hansen and Sato emphasize that although these regions are warming disproportionately, their role in causing climate change—measured by cumulative historical CO2 emissions produced—is small compared to the US and Europe, where the relative change in temperatures has been less. This spatial and temporal mismatch of climate change impacts and the burning of fossil fuels is a critical dislocation of interests that, as the authors note, has ‘substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.’ Here, we place Hansen and Sato’s ‘national responsibilities’ into a broader conceptual framework of problematically dislocated interests, and briefly discuss the related challenges for global climate mitigation efforts.

  7. Western water and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris

    2015-12-01

    The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northern-most West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries

  8. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Palmer Drought and Crop Moisture Indices

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Palmer Drought Severity and Crop Moisture Indices are computed for the 344 U.S. Climate Divisions on a weekly basis based on a...

  9. Impacts of Climate Change on the Climate Extremes of the Middle East

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turp, M. Tufan; Collu, Kamil; Deler, F. Busra; Ozturk, Tugba; Kurnaz, M. Levent

    2016-04-01

    The Middle East is one of the most vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change. Because of the importance of the region and its vulnerability to global climate change, the studies including the investigation of projected changes in the climate of the Middle East play a crucial role in order to struggle with the negative effects of climate change. This research points out the relationship between the climate change and climate extremes indices in the Middle East and it investigates the changes in the number of extreme events as described by the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). As part of the study, the regional climate model (RegCM4.4) of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) is run to obtain future projection data. This research has been supported by Boǧaziçi University Research Fund Grant Number 10421.

  10. Double Exposure: Photographing Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, D. P.; Wake, C. P.; Romanow, G. B.

    2008-12-01

    Double Exposure, Photographing Climate Change, is a fine-art photography exhibition that examines climate change through the prism of melting glaciers. The photographs are twinned shots of glaciers, taken in the mid-20th century by world-renowned photographer Brad Washburn, and in the past two years by Boston journalist/photographer David Arnold. Arnold flew in Washburn's aerial "footprints", replicating stunning black and white photographs, and documenting one irreversible aspect of climate change. Double Exposure is art with a purpose. It is designed to educate, alarm and inspire its audiences. Its power lies in its beauty and the shocking changes it has captured through a camera lens. The interpretive text, guided by numerous experts in the fields of glaciology, global warming and geology, helps convey the message that climate change has already forced permanent changes on the face of our planet. The traveling exhibit premiered at Boston's Museum of Science in April and is now criss-crossing the nation. The exhibit covers changes in the 15 glaciers that have been photographed as well as related information about global warming's effect on the planet today.

  11. Western water and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2015-01-01

    The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northernmost West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent.

  12. Conceptual Model of Climate Change Impacts at LANL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dewart, Jean Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-17

    Goal 9 of the LANL FY15 Site Sustainability Plan (LANL 2014a) addresses Climate Change Adaptation. As part of Goal 9, the plan reviews many of the individual programs the Laboratory has initiated over the past 20 years to address climate change impacts to LANL (e.g. Wildland Fire Management Plan, Forest Management Plan, etc.). However, at that time, LANL did not yet have a comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation. To fill this gap, the FY15 Work Plan for the LANL Long Term Strategy for Environmental Stewardship and Sustainability (LANL 2015) included a goal of (1) establishing a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts at LANL and (2) establishing specific climate change indices to measure climate change and impacts at Los Alamos. Establishing a conceptual model of climate change impacts will demonstrate that the Laboratory is addressing climate change impacts in a comprehensive manner. This paper fulfills the requirement of goal 1. The establishment of specific indices of climate change at Los Alamos (goal 2), will improve our ability to determine climate change vulnerabilities and assess risk. Future work will include prioritizing risks, evaluating options/technologies/costs, and where appropriate, taking actions. To develop a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts, we selected the framework provided in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Resilience Toolkit (http://toolkit.climate.gov/).

  13. Energy and water fluxes above a cacao agroforestry system in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, indicate effects of land-use change on local climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Falk, U.; Ibrom, A.; Oltchev, A.; Kreilein, H.; Merklein, J.; Gravenhorst, G. [Inst. of Bioclimatology, Univ. Goettingen (Germany); June, T. [Inst. Pertanian Bogor, BIOTROP-ICSEA, Bogor (Indonesia); Rauf, A. [Univ. Tadulako, Palu (Indonesia)

    2005-04-01

    Rapid conversion of tropical rainforests to agricultural land-use types occurs throughout Indonesia and South-East Asia. We hypothesize that these changes in land-use affect the turbulent heat exchange processes between vegetation and the atmosphere, and the radiative properties of the surface, and therefore, induce an impact on local climate and water flows. As part of the international research project (SFB 552, Stability of Rainforest Margins in Indonesia, STORMA) the turbulent heat fluxes over a cacao agroforestry system (AFS) were investigated, using the eddy covariance technique. These first heat flux observations above a cacao AFS showed an unexpectedly large contribution of the sensible heat flux to the total turbulent heat transport, resulting in an averaged day-time Bowen ratio of {beta} = H/{lambda}E {approx} 1. Seasonality of {beta} did mainly coincide with the seasonal course of precipitation, which amounted to 1970 mm yr{sup -1} during the investigated period. The findings are compared to investigations at four neotropical rain forests where daytime {beta} were substantially smaller than 1. All discussed sites received similar incident short wave radiation, however, precipitation at the neotropical sites was much higher. Our first observations in a nearby Indonesian upland rain forest where precipitation was comparable to that at the cacao AFS showed an intermediate behaviour. Differences in {beta} between the cacao AFS and the tropical forests are discussed as a consequence of differing precipitation amounts, and albedo. From these comparisons we conclude that conversion from tropical forests to cacao AFS affects the energy fluxes towards increased heating of the day-time convective boundary-layer. (orig.)

  14. Climate engineering research : A precautionary response to climate change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reynolds, J.L.; Fleurke, F.M.

    2013-01-01

    In the face of dire forecasts for anthropogenic climate change, climate engineering is increasingly discussed as a possible additional set of responses to reduce climate change’s threat. These proposals have been controversial, in part because they – like climate change itself – pose uncertain risks

  15. Assessing urban climate change resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voskaki, Asimina

    2016-04-01

    Recent extreme weather events demonstrate that many urban environments are vulnerable to climate change impacts and as a consequence designing systems for future climate seems to be an important parameter in sustainable urban planning. The focus of this research is the development of a theoretical framework to assess climate change resilience in urban environments. The methodological approach used encompasses literature review, detailed analysis, and combination of data, and the development of a series of evaluation criteria, which are further analyzed into a list of measures. The choice of the specific measures is based upon various environmental, urban planning parameters, social, economic and institutional features taking into consideration key vulnerabilities and risk associated with climate change. The selected criteria are further prioritized to incorporate into the evaluation framework the level of importance of different issues towards a climate change resilient city. The framework could support decision making as regards the ability of an urban system to adapt. In addition it gives information on the level of adaptation, outlining barriers to sustainable urban planning and pointing out drivers for action and reaction.

  16. Making Sense of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blichfeldt, Nikolaj Vendelbo

    The thesis is an ethnographic description of a climate change mitigation campaign among retirees in the urban residential community Dongping Lane in central Hangzhou, and an examination of local understandings of connections between everyday life in the community and global climate change...... is conceived as part of wider state-sponsored efforts to foster civilized behavior and a sense of belonging to the residential community among urban citizens in China. The campaigners connect unspectacular everyday consumer practices with climate change and citizenship by showing that among them, making...... health, comfort and convenience. Conceived as pleasurable, easy to approach, and good for the body, low-carbon life comes to be seen as a series of hobby-like activities that residents can engage in as part of their quests for good and meaningful lives in old age. Campaigners engage engage in trans-historical...

  17. Climate change and game theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Peter John

    2011-02-01

    This paper examines the problem of achieving global cooperation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Contributions to this problem are reviewed from noncooperative game theory, cooperative game theory, and implementation theory. We examine the solutions to games where players have a continuous choice about how much to pollute, as well as games where players make decisions about treaty participation. The implications of linking cooperation on climate change with cooperation on other issues, such as trade, are also examined. Cooperative and noncooperative approaches to coalition formation are investigated in order to examine the behavior of coalitions cooperating on climate change. One way to achieve cooperation is to design a game, known as a mechanism, whose equilibrium corresponds to an optimal outcome. This paper examines some mechanisms that are based on conditional commitments, and their policy implications. These mechanisms could make cooperation on climate change mitigation more likely.

  18. Climate Change: A Regional Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Inter-American Development Bank (IDB); Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this document is to contribute to the ongoing discussion on climate change in light of the available evidence on the possible channels of transmission of the economic impact of this phenomenon and the results of the latest session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 15), held in Copenhagen from 7 to 18 December 2009. This document has been prepared, at the request of the Government of Mexico, by the Economic Commiss...

  19. [Air quality and climate change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loft, Steffen

    2009-10-26

    Air quality, health and climate change are closely connected. Ozone depends on temperature and the greenhouse gas methane from cattle and biomass. Pollen presence depends on temperature and CO2. The effect of climate change on particulate air pollution is complex, but the likely net effect is greater health risks. Reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions by reduced livestock production and use of combustion for energy production, transport and heating will also improve air quality. Energy savings in buildings and use of CO2 neutral fuels should not deteriorate indoor and outdoor air quality.

  20. Position Statement On Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-01

    The North Carolina Environmental Justice Network (NCEJN), a coalition of grassroots organizations, developed a statement to explain our environmental justice perspective on climate change to predominantly white environmental groups that seek to partner with us. NCEJN opposes strategies that reduce greenhouse emissions while maintaining or magnifying existing social, economic, and environmental injustices. Wealthy communities that consume a disproportionate share of resources avoid the most severe consequences of their consumption by displacing pollution on communities of color and low income. Therefore, the success of climate change activism depends on building an inclusive movement based on principles of racial, social and economic justice, and self-determination for all people.

  1. Spatial changes of Extended De Martonne climatic zones affected by climate change in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahimi, Jaber; Ebrahimpour, Meisam; Khalili, Ali

    2013-05-01

    In order to better understand the effect associated with global climate change on Iran's climate condition, it is important to quantify possible shifts in different climatic types in the future. To this end, monthly mean minimum and maximum temperature, and precipitation from 181 synoptic meteorological stations (average 1970-2005) have been collected from the meteorological organization of Iran. In this paper, to study spatial changes of Iran's climatic zones affected by climate changes, Extended De Martonne's classification (originally formulated by De Martonne and extended by Khalili (1992)) was used. Climate change scenarios were simulated in two future climates (average conditions during the 2050s and the 2080s) under each of the SRES A1B and A2, for the CSIRO-MK3, HadCM3, and CGCM3 climate models. Coarse outputs of GCMs were downscaled by delta method. We produced all maps for three time periods (one for the current and two for the future) according to Extended De Martonne's classification. Finally, for each climatic zone, changes between the current and the future were compared. As the main result, simulated changes indicate shifts to warmer and drier zones. For example, in the current, extra arid-cold ( A1.1m2) climate is covering the largest area of the country (21.4 %), whereas in both A1B and A2 scenarios in the 2050s and the 2080s, extra arid-moderate ( A1.1m3) and extra arid-warm ( A1.1m4) will be the climate and will occupy the largest area of the country, about 21 and 38 %, respectively. This analysis suggests that the global climate change will have a profound effect on the future distribution of severe aridity in Iran.

  2. Fire and Climate Change in Boreal Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flannigan, M. D.; Logan, K. A.; Stocks, S. J.; Wotton, B. M.; Amiro, B. D.

    2004-12-01

    Fire is the major stand-renewing agent for much of the circumboreal forest, and greatly influences the structure and function of boreal ecosystems from regeneration through mortality. Current estimates are that an average of 5-15 million hectares burn annually in boreal forests, almost exclusively in Siberia, Canada and Alaska. There is a growing global awareness of the importance and vulnerability of the boreal region to projected future climate change. Fire activity is strongly influenced by four factors - weather/climate, vegetation \\(fuels\\), natural ignition agents and humans. Climate and weather are strongly linked to fire activity which suggests that the fire regime will respond rapidly to changes in climate. Recent results suggest that area burned by fire is related to temperature and fuel moisture. The climate of the northern hemisphere has been warming due to an influx of radiatively active gases \\(carbon dioxide, methane etc.\\) as a result of human activities. This altered climate, modelled by General Circulation Models \\(GCMs\\), indicates a profound impact on fire activity in the circumboreal forest. Recent results using GCMs suggest that in many regions fire weather/fire danger conditions will be more severe, area burned will increase, people-caused and lightning-caused ignitions will increase, fire seasons will be longer and the intensity and severity of fires will increase. This increase in fire activity may lead to a positive feedback cycle with the increased release of greenhouse gases. Although a run away scenario is unlikely as changes in vegetation would limit the positive feedback cycle. Changes in fire activity as a result of climate change could have a greater and more immediate impact on vegetation distribution and abundance as compared to the direct impact of climate change.

  3. Case grows for climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hileman, B.

    1999-08-09

    In the four years since the IPCC stated that 'the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate', evidence for anomalous warming has become more compelling, and as a result scientists have become more concerned that human-induced climate change has already arrived. The article summarises recent extra evidence on global temperatures, carbon dioxide measurements, ice shelf breakup, coral bleaching, unstable climates and improved climate models. At the time of the Kyoto conference, the US became keen on the idea that enhancing forest and soil carbon sequestration was a good way to offset emissions reduction targets. Congress is however under the opinion on that the Kyoto protocol presents a threat to the US economy, and senate is very unlikely to ratify the protocol during the Clinton Administration. The debate as to whether the US government should mandate major emission reduction or wait for more scientific certainty may continue for a number of years, but, growing concern of scientists and the public for the harmful effects of climate change may cause a change. 4 figs., 8 photos.

  4. Maritime Archaeology and Climate Change: An Invitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Jeneva

    2016-12-01

    Maritime archaeology has a tremendous capacity to engage with climate change science. The field is uniquely positioned to support climate change research and the understanding of past human adaptations to climate change. Maritime archaeological data can inform on environmental shifts and submerged sites can serve as an important avenue for public outreach by mobilizing public interest and action towards understanding the impacts of climate change. Despite these opportunities, maritime archaeologists have not fully developed a role within climate change science and policy. Moreover, submerged site vulnerabilities stemming from climate change impacts are not yet well understood. This article discusses potential climate change threats to maritime archaeological resources, the challenges confronting cultural resource managers, and the contributions maritime archaeology can offer to climate change science. Maritime archaeology's ability to both support and benefit from climate change science argues its relevant and valuable place in the global climate change dialogue, but also reveals the necessity for our heightened engagement.

  5. Maritime Archaeology and Climate Change: An Invitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Jeneva

    2016-08-01

    Maritime archaeology has a tremendous capacity to engage with climate change science. The field is uniquely positioned to support climate change research and the understanding of past human adaptations to climate change. Maritime archaeological data can inform on environmental shifts and submerged sites can serve as an important avenue for public outreach by mobilizing public interest and action towards understanding the impacts of climate change. Despite these opportunities, maritime archaeologists have not fully developed a role within climate change science and policy. Moreover, submerged site vulnerabilities stemming from climate change impacts are not yet well understood. This article discusses potential climate change threats to maritime archaeological resources, the challenges confronting cultural resource managers, and the contributions maritime archaeology can offer to climate change science. Maritime archaeology's ability to both support and benefit from climate change science argues its relevant and valuable place in the global climate change dialogue, but also reveals the necessity for our heightened engagement.

  6. Changing habits, changing climate : a foundation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Enright, W. [Canadian Inst. of Child Health, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2001-03-01

    If Canada intends to meet its greenhouse gas reduction target of 6 per cent below 1990 levels, a fundamental shift in energy use by Canadians is required. The health sector will also be required to change. Global climate change is expected to affect regions differently, some might get wetter, some might get warmer, and others still might get colder. Climate changes will influence a number of health determinants: the geographical range of disease organisms and vectors; temperature extremes and violent weather events; air, food and water quality; the stability of ecosystems. There is a requirement to strongly regulate the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases to limit health risks. Increased air pollution could negatively affect large numbers of people, especially asthma sufferers and people suffering from chronic respiratory ailments and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in precipitation and temperature could increase insect-borne diseases. Water sources could be badly affected by drought, flooding or increased glacial runoff. The thinning of the ozone layer could result in additional skin cancers, impaired vision and other diseases. The document explores the various impacts resulting from climate change. A chapter is devoted to each topic: air pollution, temperature extremes, extreme weather events, vector borne diseases, drought and increased evaporation, food supply and ecosystem range, sea level rise, stratospheric ozone depletion and describes the health impacts. In addition, a chapter deals with aboriginal communities. The topic of environmental refugees is discussed, followed by an historical perspective into climate change policy in Canada. The author concludes with adaptation measures. Further emphasis must be placed on priority topics such as the estimation of future emissions and modelling of climate processes. refs., tabs., figs.

  7. Arctic climate change in NORKLIMA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    The NORKLIMA programme is the national Norwegian initiative on climate research established for the period 2004-2013. The programme seeks to generate key knowledge about climate trends, the impacts of climate change, and how Norway can adapt to these changes. The NORKLIMA programme also encompasses research on instruments and policies for reducing emissions. Large-scale Programmes As part of the effort to meet national research-policy priorities, the Research Council has established a special funding instrument called the Large-scale Programmes. This initiative is designed to build long-term knowledge in order to encourage innovation and enhance value creation as well as to help find solutions to important challenges facing society.(Author)

  8. Leave Politics Out of Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The UN Security Council held its first ever open debate on the impact of climate change on global security in mid-April, indicating the growing concern of the international community over the issue. However, Chen Ying, an associate researcher with the Ce

  9. Climate change and tools for collective action

    Science.gov (United States)

    As climate change alters the quality and quantity of water in local ecosystems, we will be faced with management challenges. Research experience in the St. Louis River Area of Concern would indicate that collective action is possible in response to the threat of degraded water qu...

  10. Regional projection of climate impact indices over the Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casanueva, Ana; Frías, M.; Dolores; Herrera, Sixto; Bedia, Joaquín; San Martín, Daniel; Gutiérrez, José Manuel; Zaninovic, Ksenija

    2014-05-01

    Climate Impact Indices (CIIs) are being increasingly used in different socioeconomic sectors to transfer information about climate change impacts and risks to stakeholders. CIIs are typically based on different weather variables such as temperature, wind speed, precipitation or humidity and comprise, in a single index, the relevant meteorological information for the particular impact sector (in this study wildfires and tourism). This dependence on several climate variables poses important limitations to the application of statistical downscaling techniques, since physical consistency among variables is required in most cases to obtain reliable local projections. The present study assesses the suitability of the "direct" downscaling approach, in which the downscaling method is directly applied to the CII. In particular, for illustrative purposes, we consider two popular indices used in the wildfire and tourism sectors, the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and the Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET), respectively. As an example, two case studies are analysed over two representative Mediterranean regions of interest for the EU CLIM-RUN project: continental Spain for the FWI and Croatia for the PET. Results obtained with this "direct" downscaling approach are similar to those found from the application of the statistical downscaling to the individual meteorological drivers prior to the index calculation ("component" downscaling) thus, a wider range of statistical downscaling methods could be used. As an illustration, future changes in both indices are projected by applying two direct statistical downscaling methods, analogs and linear regression, to the ECHAM5 model. Larger differences were found between the two direct statistical downscaling approaches than between the direct and the component approaches with a single downscaling method. While these examples focus on particular indices and Mediterranean regions of interest for CLIM-RUN stakeholders, the same study

  11. The Pace of Perceivable Extreme Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, X.; Gan, T. Y.

    2015-12-01

    When will the signal of obvious changes in extreme climate emerge over climate variability (Time of Emergence, ToE) is a key question for planning and implementing measures to mitigate the potential impact of climate change to natural and human systems that are generally adapted to potential changes from current variability. We estimated ToEs for the magnitude, duration and frequency of global extreme climate represented by 24 extreme climate indices (16 for temperature and 8 for precipitation) with different thresholds of the signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio based on projections of CMIP5 global climate models under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 for the 21st century. The uncertainty of ToE is assessed by using 3 different methods to calculate S/N for each extreme index. Results show that ToEs of the projected extreme climate indices based on the RCP4.5 climate scenarios are generally projected to happen about 20 years later than that for the RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Under RCP8.5, the projected magnitude, duration and frequency of extreme temperature on Earth will all exceed 2 standard deviations by 2100, and the empirical 50th percentile of the global ToE for the frequency and magnitude of hot (cold) extreme are about 2040 and 2054 (2064 and 2054) for S/N > 2, respectively. The 50th percentile of global ToE for the intensity of extreme precipitation is about 2030 and 2058 for S/N >0.5 and S/N >1, respectively. We further evaluated the exposure of ecosystems and human societies to the pace of extreme climate change by determining the year of ToE for various extreme climate indices projected to occur over terrestrial biomes, marine realms and major urban areas with large populations. This was done by overlaying terrestrial, ecoregions and population maps with maps of ToE derived, to extract ToEs for these regions. Possible relationships between GDP per person and ToE are also investigated by relating the mean ToE for each country and its average value of GDP per person.

  12. A Lesson on Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Jim

    This cooperative learning activity, for grades 7-12, promotes critical thinking skills within the context of learning about the causes and effects of climate change. Objectives include: (1) understanding factors that reduce greenhouse gases; (2) understanding the role of trees in reducing greenhouse gases; (3) identifying foods that produce…

  13. Hydrological response to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yan, Dan; Werners, S.E.; Ludwig, Fulco; Huang, He Qing

    2015-01-01

    Study region: The Pearl River, located in the south of China, is the second largest river in China in terms of streamflow. Study focus: The study aims to assess the impact of climate change on seasonal discharge and extreme flows. For the assessment we use the variable infiltration capacity (VIC)

  14. Students' evaluations about climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardi, Doug; Brandt, Carol B.; Bickel, Elliot S.; Burg, Colin

    2016-05-01

    Scientists regularly evaluate alternative explanations of phenomena and solutions to problems. Students should similarly engage in critical evaluation when learning about scientific and engineering topics. However, students do not often demonstrate sophisticated evaluation skills in the classroom. The purpose of the present study was to investigate middle school students' evaluations when confronted with alternative explanations of the complex and controversial topic of climate change. Through a qualitative analysis, we determined that students demonstrated four distinct categories of evaluation when writing about the connections between evidence and alternative explanations of climate change: (a) erroneous evaluation, (b) descriptive evaluation, (c) relational evaluation, and (d) critical evaluation. These categories represent different types of evaluation quality. A quantitative analysis revealed that types of evaluation, along with plausibility perceptions about the alternative explanations, were significant predictors of postinstructional knowledge about scientific principles underlying the climate change phenomenon. Specifically, more robust evaluations and greater plausibility toward the scientifically accepted model of human-induced climate change predicted greater knowledge. These findings demonstrate that instruction promoting critical evaluation and plausibility appraisal may promote greater understanding of socio-scientific topics and increased use of scientific thinking when considering alternative explanations, as is called for by recent science education reform efforts.

  15. Climate change, zoonoses and India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, B B; Sharma, R; Gill, J P S; Aulakh, R S; Banga, H S

    2011-12-01

    Economic trends have shaped our growth and the growth of the livestock sector, but atthe expense of altering natural resources and systems in ways that are not always obvious. Now, however, the reverse is beginning to happen, i.e. environmental trends are beginning to shape our economy and health status. In addition to water, air and food, animals and birds play a pivotal role in the maintenance and transmission of important zoonotic diseases in nature. It is generally considered that the prevalence of vector-borne and waterborne zoonoses is likely to increase in the coming years due to the effects of global warming in India. In recent years, vector-borne diseases have emerged as a serious public health problem in countries of the South-East Asia region, including India. Vector-borne zoonoses now occur in epidemic form almost on an annual basis, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. New reservoir areas of cutaneous leishmaniosis in South India have been recognised, and the role of climate change in its re-emergence warrants further research, as does the role of climate change in the ascendancy of waterborne and foodborne illness. Similarly, climate change that leads to warmer and more humid conditions may increase the risk of transmission of airborne zoonoses, and hot and drier conditions may lead to a decline in the incidence of disease(s). The prevalence of these zoonotic diseases and their vectors and the effect of climate change on important zoonoses in India are discussed in this review.

  16. Climate Change: Evidence and Causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The fundamentals of climate change are well established: greenhouse gases warm the planet; their concentrations in the atmosphere are increasing; Earth has warmed, and is going to continue warming with a range of impacts. This article summarises the contents of a recent publication issued by the UK's Royal Society and the US National Academy…

  17. The Science of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppenheimer, Michael; Anttila-Hughes, Jesse K.

    2016-01-01

    Michael Oppenheimer and Jesse Anttila-Hughes begin with a primer on how the greenhouse effect works, how we know that Earth is rapidly getting warmer, and how we know that the recent warming is caused by human activity. They explain the sources of scientific knowledge about climate change as well as the basis for the models scientists use to…

  18. Indigenous Peoples and Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelton H. Davis

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available There has been a growing attention on the need to take into account the effects of global climate change. This is particularly so with respect to the increasing amount of green house gas emissions from the Untied States and Europe affecting poor peoples, especially those in developing countries. In 2003, for example, the experts of several international development agencies, including the World Bank, prepared a special report titled “Poverty and Climate Change: Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor through Adaptation” (OECD 2003. This report followed the Eighth Session of the Conference of Parties (COP8 to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC in New Delhi, India in October 2002. It showed that poverty reduction is not only one of the major challenges of the 21st century, but also that climate change is taking place in many developing countries and is increasingly affecting, in a negative fashion, both the economic conditions and the health of poor people and their communities.

  19. The Whiteness of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lars

    2011-01-01

    This article examines two major debates in contemporary Australian discourses on the nation: climate change and whiteness studies. It is primarily concerned with establishing a framework for connecting the two discourses, and in that process it raises pivotal questions about how narratives about...

  20. Climate Change: Evidence and Causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The fundamentals of climate change are well established: greenhouse gases warm the planet; their concentrations in the atmosphere are increasing; Earth has warmed, and is going to continue warming with a range of impacts. This article summarises the contents of a recent publication issued by the UK's Royal Society and the US National Academy of…

  1. Climate change and trace gases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Kharecha, Pushker; Russell, Gary; Lea, David W; Siddall, Mark

    2007-07-15

    Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. One feedback, the 'albedo flip' property of ice/water, provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that 'flips' the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm. Inertia of ice sheet and ocean provides only moderate delay to ice sheet disintegration and a burst of added global warming. Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the largest human-made climate forcing, but other trace constituents are also important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO2 emissions and reduce non-CO2 forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. The most important of the non-CO2 forcings is methane (CH4), as it causes the second largest human-made GHG climate forcing and is the principal cause of increased tropospheric ozone (O3), which is the third largest GHG forcing. Nitrous oxide (N2O) should also be a focus of climate mitigation efforts. Black carbon ('black soot') has a high global warming potential (approx. 2000, 500 and 200 for 20, 100 and 500 years, respectively) and deserves greater attention. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could preserve Arctic ice, while also having major benefits for human health, agricultural productivity and the global environment.

  2. Climate Change Research in View of Bibliometrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haunschild, Robin; Bornmann, Lutz; Marx, Werner

    2016-01-01

    This bibliometric study of a large publication set dealing with research on climate change aims at mapping the relevant literature from a bibliometric perspective and presents a multitude of quantitative data: (1) The growth of the overall publication output as well as (2) of some major subfields, (3) the contributing journals and countries as well as their citation impact, and (4) a title word analysis aiming to illustrate the time evolution and relative importance of specific research topics. The study is based on 222,060 papers (articles and reviews only) published between 1980 and 2014. The total number of papers shows a strong increase with a doubling every 5-6 years. Continental biomass related research is the major subfield, closely followed by climate modeling. Research dealing with adaptation, mitigation, risks, and vulnerability of global warming is comparatively small, but their share of papers increased exponentially since 2005. Research on vulnerability and on adaptation published the largest proportion of very important papers (in terms of citation impact). Climate change research has become an issue also for disciplines beyond the natural sciences. The categories Engineering and Social Sciences show the strongest field-specific relative increase. The Journal of Geophysical Research, the Journal of Climate, the Geophysical Research Letters, and Climatic Change appear at the top positions in terms of the total number of papers published. Research on climate change is quantitatively dominated by the USA, followed by the UK, Germany, and Canada. The citation-based indicators exhibit consistently that the UK has produced the largest proportion of high impact papers compared to the other countries (having published more than 10,000 papers). Also, Switzerland, Denmark and also The Netherlands (with a publication output between around 3,000 and 6,000 papers) perform top-the impact of their contributions is on a high level. The title word analysis shows that

  3. Changing Climates @ Colorado State: 100 (Multidisciplinary) Views of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, S.; Calderazzo, J.; Changing Climates, Cmmap Education; Diversity Team

    2011-12-01

    We would like to talk about a multidisciplinary education and outreach program we co-direct at Colorado State University, with support from an NSF-funded STC, CMMAP, the Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes. We are working to raise public literacy about climate change by providing information that is high quality, up to date, thoroughly multidisciplinary, and easy for non-specialists to understand. Our primary audiences are college-level students, their teachers, and the general public. Our motto is Climate Change is Everybody's Business. To encourage and help our faculty infuse climate-change content into their courses, we have organized some 115 talks given by as many different speakers-speakers drawn from 28 academic departments, all 8 colleges at CSU, and numerous other entities from campus, the community, and farther afield. We began with a faculty-teaching-faculty series and then broadened our attentions to the whole campus and surrounding community. Some talks have been for narrowly focused audiences such as extension agents who work on energy, but most are for more eclectic groups of students, staff, faculty, and citizens. We count heads at most events, and our current total is roughly 6,000. We have created a website (http://changingclimates.colostate.edu) that includes videotapes of many of these talks, short videos we have created, and annotated sources that we judge to be accurate, interesting, clearly written, and aimed at non-specialists, including books, articles and essays, websites, and a few items specifically for college teachers (such as syllabi). Pages of the website focus on such topics as how the climate works / how it changes; what's happening / what might happen; natural ecosystems; agriculture; impacts on people; responses from ethics, art, literature; communication; daily life; policy; energy; and-pulling all the pieces together-the big picture. We have begun working on a new series of very short videos that can be

  4. Climate Change and Intertidal Wetlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pauline M. Ross

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Intertidal wetlands are recognised for the provision of a range of valued ecosystem services. The two major categories of intertidal wetlands discussed in this contribution are saltmarshes and mangrove forests. Intertidal wetlands are under threat from a range of anthropogenic causes, some site-specific, others acting globally. Globally acting factors include climate change and its driving cause—the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. One direct consequence of climate change will be global sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and, in the longer term, the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The relative sea level rise experienced at any one locality will be affected by a range of factors, as will the response of intertidal wetlands to the change in sea level. If relative sea level is rising and sedimentation within intertidal wetlands does not keep pace, then there will be loss of intertidal wetlands from the seaward edge, with survival of the ecosystems only possible if they can retreat inland. When retreat is not possible, the wetland area will decline in response to the “squeeze” experienced. Any changes to intertidal wetland vegetation, as a consequence of climate change, will have flow on effects to biota, while changes to biota will affect intertidal vegetation. Wetland biota may respond to climate change by shifting in distribution and abundance landward, evolving or becoming extinct. In addition, impacts from ocean acidification and warming are predicted to affect the fertilisation, larval development, growth and survival of intertidal wetland biota including macroinvertebrates, such as molluscs and crabs, and vertebrates such as fish and potentially birds. The capacity of organisms to move and adapt will depend on their life history characteristics, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, inheritability of adaptive characteristics, and the predicted rates of environmental change.

  5. Plant community responses to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kongstad, J.

    2012-07-01

    Climate change is expected to affect terrestrial ecosystems across the globe with increased atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration, higher temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. These environmental factors are drivers of many important ecosystem processes, and changes in ecosystem function are therefore expected in the future. The aim of this PhD-thesis was to examine the effects of climate change on aboveground plant growth, plant composition and plant phenology in Danish heathland ecosystems. Two sites were investigated in large-scale field experiments: 1) the CLIMAITE site, 'Brandbjerg' and 2) the INCREASE site at Mols. Field manipulations lasted years and included: Warming, summer drought and (CLIMAITE only) elevated CO{sub 2} concentrations. The treatments were applied individually and in all possible combinations. Further, at Brandbjerg, but outside the treatment plots, a study was performed on the effects nitrogen and phosphorus addition on phenology, chemistry and growth of the dominant grass Deschampsia flexuosa (Wavy Hairgrass). In general, the aboveground vegetation responded less than expected to changing climatic conditions; even though Calluna vulgaris (Heather) increased in biomass over the study period, the biomass was not affected by the manipulations, indicating that C. vulgaris, has a strong resistance to changes in climate. Also, the grass biomass (primarily D. flexuosa) was not affected and was relatively constant over the period. I argue that the resilience of D. flexuosa towards the climatic treatments came from the plants ability to let the tissue die back, and then quickly recover once conditions again became favourable. That gave the plant a high resilience to changes in climatic factors. Calluna vulgaris, on the other hand, showed a resistance to changes by constantly maintaining the growth during the whole season, probably because of its evergreen status. Together, the two different strategies made the heathland

  6. Climate change: a case study over India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sahai, A.K. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India)

    1998-12-31

    A brief account of various causes of climate change in recent decades and climate change trends in the Indian region is presented. Local temperature is one of the major climatic elements to record the changes in the atmospheric environment caused by industrialization and urbanization. Literature data show that there is either a cooling tendency or cessation of warming after the late 1950s at most of the Indian industrial cities. A case study of Nagpur, a centrally located city in India, is done to understand the possible causes of cooling. Nagpur is the only city in India for which a long-term record of temperature, for urban (Mayo Hospital) and relatively suburban (Sonegaon Airport) area, is available. The study of the diurnal asymmetry in maximum and minimum temperatures indicates that the role of suspended particulate matter dominates over that of increasing greenhouse gases.

  7. Illinois task force on global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Griffin, B.S. [Illinois Dept. of Natural Resources, Springfield, IL (United States)

    1996-12-31

    The purpose of this report is to document progress in the areas of national policy development, emissions reduction, research and education, and adaptation, and to identify specific actions that will be undertaken to implement the Illinois state action plan. The task force has been tracking national and international climate change policy, and helping shape national policy agenda. Identification and implementation of cost-effective mitigation measures has been performed for emissions reduction. In the area of research and education, the task force is developing the capacity to measure climate change indicators, maintaining and enhancing Illinois relevant research, and strengthening climate change education. Activities relevant to adaptation to new policy include strengthening water laws and planning for adaptation. 6 figs., 4 tabs.

  8. Climate change and the Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Anderson, Jamie; Anderson, Michael L.; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel; Maurer, Edwin P.

    2016-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages) by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes are much less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. However, the same projections agree that precipitation will be more intense when storms do arrive, even as more dry days will separate storms. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporative demands and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Sea level rise (SLR) during the 20th century was about 22cm, and is projected to increase by at least 3-fold this century. SLR together with land subsidence threatens the Delta with greater vulnerabilities to inundation and salinity intrusion. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include SLR, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflows, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict, except that native species will fare worse than invaders. Successful

  9. Undergraduate Students' Conceptions of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenbath, K. L.

    2011-12-01

    constructed definition removes human-causes from association with the word "climate change", which may influence their climate change understanding. Of the two higher achieving students, one emphasized anthropogenic climate change at the beginning of the semester, but later focused on natural climate change during his interviews. The other high achieving student included tangential environmental topics in her descriptions of climate change throughout the entire semester, thus conflating climate change's definition. These alternative definitions of climate change indicate that the learners constructed hybrid conceptions in order to incorporate class content with their prior ideas. These hybrid conceptions indicate that the students' understandings lie somewhere between misconceptions and conceptual change. Since the students demonstrated these hybrid conceptions at the end of class, perhaps more time is needed for the students to process the information. These case studies identify the gaps the professor should address for conceptual change to fully occur.

  10. Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Petermann, Nils; Krey, Volker; Schwanitz, Jana; Luderer, Gunnar; Ashina, Shuichi; Bosetti, Valentina; Eom, Jiyong; Kitous, Alban; Mejean, Aurelie; Paroussos, Leonidas; Sano, Fuminori; Turton, Hal; Wilson, Charlie; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economic systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. This article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of integrated assessment models to classify differences among models based on their carbon price responses. Model diagnostics can uncover patterns and provide insights into why, under a given scenario, certain types of models behave in observed ways. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study with 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to more easily explain variations among policy-relevant model results.

  11. Improving leadership on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chandani, Achala

    2011-03-15

    The upcoming UN conference on climate change in Durban, South Africa throws a spotlight on African climate policy. As part of a knowledge-sharing initiative in Southern Africa, we assessed parliamentarians' needs for more information on climate threats and responses, and ways to improve their capabilities as key stakeholders influencing national and global decisionmaking. Funded by the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office and partnered with the Association of European Parliamentarians with Africa (AWEPA), IIED worked with parliamentarians in the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) — Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland — through interviews, literature surveys, field trips and workshops. Similar studies in Malawi and Scotland also fed into this project.

  12. Precipitation extremes under climate change

    CERN Document Server

    O'Gorman, Paul A

    2015-01-01

    The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models show that precipitation extremes intensify in response to a warming climate. However, the sensitivity of precipitation extremes to warming remains uncertain when convection is important, and it may be higher in the tropics than the extratropics. Several physical contributions govern the response of precipitation extremes. The thermodynamic contribution is robust and well understood, but theoretical understanding of the microphysical and dynamical contributions is still being developed. Orographic precipitation extremes and snowfall extremes respond differently from other precipitation extremes and require particular attention. Outstanding research challenges include the influence of mesoscale convective organization, the dependence on the duration considered, and the need to...

  13. Risks of non-linear climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Ham, J.; Van Beers, R.J.; Builtjes, P.J.H.; Koennen, G.P.; Oerlemans, J.; Roemer, M.G.M. [TNO-SCMO, Delft (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    Climate forcing as a result of increased concentrations of greenhouse gases has been primarily addressed as a problem of a possibly warmer climate. So far, such change has been obscured in observations, possibly as a result of natural climate variability and masking by aerosols. Consequently, projections of the effect of climate forcing have to be based on modelling, more specifically by applying Global Circulation Models GCMs. These GCMs do not cover all possible feedbacks; neither do they address all specific possible effects of climate forcing. The investigation reviews possible non-linear climate change which does not fall within the coverage of present GCMs. The review includes the potential relevance of changes in biogeochemical cycles, aerosol and cloud feedback, albedo instability, ice-flow instability, changes in the thermohaline circulation and changes resulting from stratospheric cooling. It is noted that these changes may have different time horizons. Three from the investigated issues provide indications for a possible non-linear change. On the decadal scale stratospheric cooling, which is the result of the enhanced greenhouse effect, in combination with a depleted ozone layer, could provide a positive feedback to further ozone depletion, in particular in the Arctic. Decreasing albedo on the Greenland ice sheet may enhance the runoff from this ice sheet significantly in case of warming on a timescale of a few centuries. Changes in ocean circulation in the North Atlantic could seasonally more than compensate a global warming of 3C in North-West Europe on a timescale of centuries to a millennium. 263 refs.

  14. How Should we Address Climate Change?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YE Duzheng; YAN Zhongwei; HUANG Gang

    2009-01-01

    @@ Global warming goes on The climate has always been changing. Here we refer to the changes concerning the current global warming,which is unprecedented both in terms of the rate at which the warming takes place and the extent to which human activities exert impacts on it. Observational analyses indicate that the global mean temperature increased by about 0.6℃/century over the last century;

  15. Asia's changing role in global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqi, Toufiq A

    2008-10-01

    Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.

  16. All that glitters is not gold: A projected distribution of the endemic Indian Golden Gecko Calodactylodes aureus (Reptilia: Squamata: Gekkonidae indicates a major range shrinkage due to future climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aditya Srinivasulu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has a perceived threat on biodiversity due to its effect on species range.  Species with narrow ranges and highly specific climatic and habitat requirements are at higher risk.  To understand the influence of climate change on the Indian endemic gekkonid, the Indian Golden Gecko Calodactylodes aureus (Beddome, 1870 we model the present and future predicted distribution (2050 and 2070 under the CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using MaxEnt under the HadGEM3-ES Model.  Our analysis revealed the negative impact of climate change on the Indian Golden Gecko with a decrease in the amount of climatically suitable areas in the future, and an almost total range shrinkage by 2070.  Despite its wide distribution in the eastern Deccan Peninsula, according to our predictions, the species is threatened by a shrinkage in the future range due to climate change

  17. Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation

    CERN Document Server

    Seiner, John; Suzuki, Toshio; Lackner, Maximilian

    2012-01-01

    There is a mounting consensus that human behavior is changing the global climate and its consequence could be catastrophic. Reducing the 24 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions from stationary and mobile sources is a gigantic task involving both technological challenges and monumental financial and societal costs. The pursuit of sustainable energy resources, environment, and economy has become a complex issue of global scale that affects the daily life of every citizen of the world. The present mitigation activities range from energy conservation, carbon-neutral energy conversions, carbon advanced combustion process that produce no greenhouse gases and that enable carbon capture and sequestion, to other advanced technologies. From its causes and impacts to its solutions, the issues surrounding climate change involve multidisciplinary science and technology. This handbook will provide a single source of this information. The book will be divided into the following sections: Scientific Evidence of Cl...

  18. Challenges and Possibilities in Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pruneau,, Diane; Khattabi, Abdellatif; Demers, Melanie

    2010-01-01

    Educating and communicating about climate change is challenging. Researchers reported that climate change concepts are often misunderstood. Some people do not believe that climate change will have impacts on their own life. Other challenges may include people's difficulty in perceiving small or gradual environmental changes, the fact that…

  19. Climate change in China and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luo Y.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Since the first assessment report (FAR of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC in 1990, the international scientific community has made substantial progresses in climate change sciences. Changes in components of climate system, including the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, indicate that global warming is unequivocal. Instrumental records demonstrate that the global mean temperature has a significant increasing trend during the 20th century and in the latest 50 years the warming become faster. In the meantime, the global sea level has a strong increasing trend, as well as the snow coverage of Northern Hemisphere showed an obvious downward trend. Moreover, the global warming plays a key role in significantly affecting the climate system and social-economy on both global and regional scales, such as sea level rise, melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets, desertification, deforestation, increase of weather extremes (typhoon, hurricane and rainstorm and so on. The state of the art understanding of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 was most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in the concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Climate change issues, as a grave challenge to the sustainable development of the human society, have received ever greater attention from the international community. Deeply cognizant of the complexity and extensive influence of these issues and fully aware of the arduousness and urgency of the task of addressing climate change, the Chinese government is determined to address climate change in the process of pursuing sustainable development. The facts of climate change in China and its impacts, and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change are introduced in this paper.

  20. Teaching Climate Change Through Music

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, P. S.

    2007-12-01

    During 2006, Peter Weiss aka "The Singing Scientist" performed many music assemblies for elementary schools (K-5) in Santa Cruz County, California, USA. These assemblies were an opportunity for him to mix a discussion of climate change with rock n' roll. In one song called "Greenhouse Glasses", Peter and his band the "Earth Rangers" wear over-sized clown glasses with "molecules" hanging off them (made with Styrofoam balls and pipe cleaners). Each molecule is the real molecular structure of a greenhouse gas, and the song explains how when the wearer of these glasses looks up in the sky, he/she can see the "greenhouse gases floating by." "I've seen more of them this year than the last / 'Cuz fossil fuels are burning fast / I wish everyone could see through these frames / Then maybe we could prevent climate change" Students sing, dance and get a visual picture of something that is invisible, yet is part of a very real problem. This performance description is used as an example of an educational style that can reach a wide audience and provide a framework for the audience as learners to assimilate future information on climate change. The hypothesis is that complex socio-environmental issues like climate change that must be taught in order to achieve sustainability are best done so through alternative mediums like music. Students develop awareness which leads to knowledge about chemistry, physics, and biology. These kinds of experiences which connect science learning to fun activities and community building are seriously lacking in primary and secondary schools and are a big reason why science illiteracy is a current social problem. Science education is also paired with community awareness (including the local plant/animal community) and cooperation. The Singing Scientist attempts to create a culture where it is cool to care about the environment. Students end up gardening in school gardens together and think about their "ecological footprint".

  1. Complexity in Climate Change Manipulation Experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreyling, Juergen; Beier, Claus

    2014-01-01

    Climate change goes beyond gradual changes in mean conditions. It involves increased variability in climatic drivers and increased frequency and intensity of extreme events. Climate manipulation experiments are one major tool to explore the ecological impacts of climate change. Until now, precipi...... variability in temperature are ecologically important. Embracing complexity in future climate change experiments in general is therefore crucial.......Climate change goes beyond gradual changes in mean conditions. It involves increased variability in climatic drivers and increased frequency and intensity of extreme events. Climate manipulation experiments are one major tool to explore the ecological impacts of climate change. Until now......, precipitation experiments have dealt with temporal variability or extreme events, such as drought, resulting in a multitude of approaches and scenarios with limited comparability among studies. Temperature manipulations have mainly been focused only on warming, resulting in better comparability among studies...

  2. Capturing Tweets on Climate Change: What is the role of Twitter in Climate Change Communication?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngo, A. M.; McNeal, K.; Luginbuhl, S.; Enteen, J.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is a major environmental issue that is often discussed throughout the world using social media outlets such as Twitter. This research followed and collected tweets about climate change as they related to two events: (i) the June 18, 2015 release of the Encyclical by Pope Francis which included content about climate change and (ii) the upcoming COP21 conference, a United Nations climate change conference, to be held on Dec. 7-8, 2015 in Paris. Using a Twitter account and Ncapture we were able to collect tens of thousands of climate change related tweets that were then loaded into a program called Nvivo which stored the tweets and associated publically available user information. We followed a few major hashtags such as COP21, UNFCCC, @climate, and the Pope. We examined twitter users, the information sources, locations, number of re-tweets, and frequency of tweets as well as the category of the tweet in regard to positive, negative, and neutral positions about climate. Frequency analysis of tweets over a 10 day period of the Encyclical event showed that ~200 tweets per day were made prior to the event, with ~1000 made on the day of the event, and ~100 per day following the event. For the COP21 event, activity ranged from 2000-3000 tweets per day. For the Encyclical event, an analysis of 1100 tweets on the day of release indicated that 47% of the tweets had a positive perspective about climate change, 50% were neutral, 1% negative, and 2% were unclear. For the COP21 event, an analysis of 342 tweets randomly sampled from 31,721 tweets, showed that 53% of the tweets had a positive perspective about climate change, 12% were neutral, 13% negative, and 22% were unclear. Differences in the frequency and perspectives of tweets were likely due to the nature of the events, one a long-term and recurring international event and the other a single international religious-oriented event. We tabulated the top 10 tweets about climate change as they relate to these two

  3. Climate change mitigation in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mackenzie, G.A.; Turkson, J.K.; Davidson, O.R. [eds.

    1998-10-01

    The UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (UCCEE) in conjunction with the Southern Centre for Energy and Environment (SCEE) hosted a conference on `Climate Change Mitigation in Africa` between 18 and 20 May. The Conference set out to address the following main objectives: to present to a wider audience the results of UNEP/GEF and related country studies; to present results of regional mitigation analysis; exchange of information with similar projects in the region; to expose countries to conceptual and methodological issues related to climate change mitigation; to provide input to national development using climate change related objectives. This volume contains reports of the presentations and discussions, which took place at the conference at Victoria Falls between 18 and 20 May 1998. Representatives of 11 country teams made presentations and in addition two sub-regions were discussed: the Maghreb region and SADC. The conference was attended by a total of 63 people, representing 22 African countries as well as international organisations. (EG)

  4. Climate Change: a Theoretical Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Ishaq-ur Rahman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate Change has been undoubtedly the most illustrious environmental issue since late 20th century. But neither the discourse merely emerged during that time, nor it was problematized in the same way since its onset. History of Climate Change discourse reveals that from a purely scientific concern it has turned into a public agenda that is nowadays more inclined to be development problem. Transformations have brought about a complete new paradigm every time. This article presents a theoretical analysis of the Climate Change discourse and to do so it captured the underlying philosophy of the issue using Thomas Kuhn’s well-known thesis of ‘paradigm shift’. In particular it discusses about the crisis that lead the issue towards transformations; explores key perspectives around the crisis thus representation of the issue in the environmental discourse over the time. While this paper establishes that with the beginning of the 21st century, the discourse entered into a new paradigm and will reach to a critical point by the end of 2012, it finally postulates some measures that the discourse might integrate with the existing to advance beyond that point.

  5. Past and Current Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercedes Rodríguez Ruibal, Ma

    2014-05-01

    In 1837 the Swiss geologist and palaeontologist Louis Agassiz was the first scientist to propose the existence of an ice age in the Earth's past. Nearly two centuries after discussing global glacial periods... while the average global temperature is rising very quickly because of our economic and industrial model. In tribute to these pioneers, we have selected a major climate change of the past as the Snowball Earth and, through various activities in the classroom, compared to the current anthropogenic climate change. First, we include multiple geological processes that led to a global glaciation 750 million years ago as the decrease in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4, the effect of climate variations in solar radiation due to emissions of volcanic dust and orbital changes (Milankovitch cycles), being an essential part of this model the feedback mechanism of the albedo of the ice on a geological scale. Moreover, from simple experiments and studies in the classroom this time we can compare the past with the current anthropogenic global warming we are experiencing and some of its consequences, highlighting that affect sea level rise, increased extreme and effects on health and the biosphere weather.

  6. Changes in the Perceived Risk of Climate Change: Evidence from Sudden Climatic Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

    2009-12-01

    In the course of the past two decades the threat of anthropogenic climate change has moved from a scientific concern of relative obscurity to become one of the largest environmental and public goods problems in history. During this period public understanding of the risk of climate change has shifted from negligible to quite large. In this paper I propose a means of quantifying this change by examining how sudden events supporting the theory of anthropogenic climate change have affected carbon intensive companies' stock prices. Using CAPM event study methodology for companies in several carbon-intensive industries, I find strong evidence that markets have been reacting to changes in the scientific evidence for climate change for some time. Specifically, the change in magnitude of response over time seems to indicate that investors believed climate change was a potentially serious risk to corporate profits as early as the mid 1990s. Moreover, market reaction dependence on event type indicates that investors are differentiating between different advances in the scientific knowledge. Announcements by NASA GISS that the previous year was a “record hot year” for the globe are associated with negative excess returns, while news of ice shelf collapses are associated with strong positive excess returns. These results imply that investors are aware of how different aspects of climate change will affect carbon intensive companies, specifically in terms of the link between warming in general and polar ice cover. This implies that policy choices based on observable public opinion have lagged actual private concern over climate change's potential threat.

  7. Exploring the Multifaceted Topic of Climate Change in Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

    2015-12-01

    As the effects of climate change become more profound, climate literacy becomes increasingly important. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) responds to this need through the publication of Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate. Both publications incorporate the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the USGCRP's Third National Climate Assessment. Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive, multidisciplinary information related to various topics. Additionally, each chapter closes with a For Further Exploration essay, which addresses specific topics that complement a chapter concept. Web Resources, which encourage additional exploration of chapter content, and Scientific Literature, from which chapter content was derived can also be found at the conclusion of each chapter. Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics, including the scientific principles that govern Earth's climate system and basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate the system. Released in fall 2015, Living With Our Changing Climate takes a more narrow approach and investigates human and ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change, the role of energy choices in affecting climate, actions humans can take through adaption, mitigation, and policy to lessen vulnerabilities, and psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial. While Living With Our Changing Climate is intended for programs looking to add a climate element into their curriculum, Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course. In a 2015 survey of California University of Pennsylvania undergraduate students using Our Changing Climate, 82% found it comfortable to read and utilized its interactive components and resources. Both ebooks illuminate the multidisciplinary aspect of climate change, providing the opportunity for a more sustainable future.

  8. Global Wildfire Forecasts Using Large Scale Climate Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Huizhong; Tao, Shu

    2016-04-01

    Using weather readings, fire early warning can provided forecast 4-6 hour in advance to minimize fire loss. The benefit would be dramatically enhanced if relatively accurate long-term projection can be also provided. Here we present a novel method for predicting global fire season severity (FSS) at least three months in advance using multiple large-scale climate indices (CIs). The predictive ability is proven effective for various geographic locations and resolution. Globally, as well as in most continents, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant driving force controlling interannual FSS variability, whereas other CIs also play indispensable roles. We found that a moderate El Niño event is responsible for 465 (272-658 as interquartile range) Tg carbon release and an annual increase of 29,500 (24,500-34,800) deaths from inhalation exposure to air pollutants. Southeast Asia accounts for half of the deaths. Both intercorrelation and interaction of WPs and CIs are revealed, suggesting possible climate-induced modification of fire responses to weather conditions. Our models can benefit fire management in response to climate change.

  9. The Economic Costs of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn; Thurlow, James

    2015-01-01

    We adopt a multi-sectoral approach and consider the full range of climate projections. Biophysical damages are translated into economic costs using a dynamic economy-wide model. Our results indicate that the negative impacts on agriculture and roads are modest to 2050. Larger costs are caused...... by rising sea levels and cyclone strikes. Overall, climate change is likely to reduce national income by between one and two percent by 2050 (relative to a historical baseline). Damages double under more extreme projections. Our findings suggest that there are net benefits from selected pre-emptive actions...... though careful consideration of opportunity costs is required....

  10. Climate change sentiment on Twitter: An unsolicited public opinion poll

    CERN Document Server

    Cody, Emily M; Mitchell, Lewis; Dodds, Peter Sheridan; Danforth, Christopher M

    2015-01-01

    The consequences of anthropogenic climate change are extensively debated through scientific papers, newspaper articles, and blogs. Newspaper articles may lack accuracy, while the severity of findings in scientific papers may be too opaque for the public to understand. Social media, however, is a forum where individuals of diverse backgrounds can share their thoughts and opinions. As consumption shifts from old media to new, Twitter has become a valuable resource for analyzing current events and headline news. In this research, we analyze tweets containing the word "climate" collected between September 2008 and July 2014. We determine how collective sentiment varies in response to climate change news, events, and natural disasters. Words uncovered by our analysis suggest that responses to climate change news are predominately from climate change activists rather than climate change deniers, indicating that Twitter is a valuable resource for the spread of climate change awareness.

  11. National Climate Assessment Indicators: Background, Development, & Examples

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Janetos, Anthony C.; Chen, Robert; Arndt, Deke; Kenney, Melissa A.; Abbasi, Daniel; Armstrong, Tom; Bartuska, Ann; Blair, Maria; Buizer, Jim; Dietz, Tom; Easterling, Dave; Kaye, Jack; Kolian, Michael; McGeehin, Michael; O' Connor, Robert; Pulwarty, Roger; Running, Steve; Schmalensee, Dick; Webb, Robert; Weltzin, Jake; Baptista, Sandra; Enquist, Carolyn A.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Chen, Robert; Arndt, Deke; Hatfield, Jerry; Hayes, Mark L.; Jones, K. Burce; McNutt, Chad; Meier, Wayne R.; Schwartz, Mark D.; Svoboda, Mark

    2012-02-28

    Indicators are usually thought of as measurements or calculations that represent important features of the status, trend, or performance of a system of interest (e.g. the economy, agriculture, air quality). They are often used for the most practical of reasons – one cannot measure everything important about systems of interest, so there is a practical need to identify major features that can be reported periodically and used to guide both research and decisions (NRC 2000).

  12. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Biodiversity Conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change threatens to create fundamental shifts in in the distributions and abundances of species. Given projected losses, increased emphasis on management for ecosystem resilience to help buffer fish and wildlife populations against climate change is emerging. Such effort...

  13. BUSINESS CLIMATE INDICATOR AS A PREDICTOR OF CROATIAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirjana Čižmešija

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS are one of the most frequently used tools to assess economy’s cyclical behavior. Croatia has been conducting the surveys continually since 1995. Nevertheless, there is still a research niche in the Croatian BCS framework that has not been adequately represented. The Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys suggests Business Climate Indicator (BCI as a composite leading indicator of the economy as a whole. In accordance to the EU methodology, this paper examines managers’ qualitative assessments on five important variables related to their economic environment. Using factor analysis one factor was extracted from those five variables, representing the BCI. It’s predictive properties were analyzed with regards to Croatian industrial production using Granger causality test, impulse response and variance decomposition analysis. Results strongly confirm the precedence of BCI to the changes of Croatian industrial production, validating the importance of its introduction and utilization in Croatian economic cycles analysis.

  14. Mars Recent Climate Change Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberle, Robert M.; Owen, Sandra J.

    2012-11-01

    Mars Recent Climate Change Workshop NASA/Ames Research Center May 15-17, 2012 Climate change on Mars has been a subject of great interest to planetary scientists since the 1970's when orbiting spacecraft first discovered fluvial landforms on its ancient surfaces and layered terrains in its polar regions. By far most of the attention has been directed toward understanding how "Early Mars" (i.e., Mars >~3.5 Gya) could have produced environmental conditions favorable for the flow of liquid water on its surface. Unfortunately, in spite of the considerable body of work performed on this subject, no clear consensus has emerged on the nature of the early Martian climate system because of the difficulty in distinguishing between competing ideas given the ambiguities in the available geological, mineralogical, and isotopic records. For several reasons, however, the situation is more tractable for "Recent Mars" (i.e., Mars during past 20 My or so). First, the geologic record is better preserved and evidence for climate change on this time scale has been building since the rejuvenation of the Mars Exploration Program in the late 1990's. The increasing coverage of the planet from orbit and the surface, coupled with accurate measurements of surface topography, increasing spatial resolution of imaging cameras, improved spectral resolution of infrared sensors, and the ability to probe the subsurface with radar, gamma rays, and neutron spectroscopy, has not only improved the characterization of previously known climate features such as polar layered terrains and glacier-related landforms, but has also revealed the existence of many new features related to recent climate change such as polygons, gullies, concentric crater fill, and a latitude dependent mantle. Second, the likely cause of climate change - spin axis/orbital variations - is more pronounced on Mars compared to Earth. Spin axis/orbital variations alter the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of sunlight, which can

  15. The science of climate change.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doctor, R. D.

    1999-09-10

    A complex debate is underway on climate change linked to proposals for costly measures that would reshape our power grid. This confronts technical experts outside of the geophysical disciplines with extensive, but unfamiliar, data both supporting and refuting claims that serious action is warranted. For example, evidence is brought to the table from one group of astrophysicists concerned with sunspots--this group believes there is no issue man can manage; while another group of oceanographers concerned with the heat balance in the world's oceans are very alarmed at the loss of arctic ice. What is the evidence? In an effort to put some of these issues in perspective for a technical audience, without a background in geophysics, a brief survey will consider (1) an overview of the 300 years of scientific inquiry on man's relationship to climate; (2) a basic discussion of what is meant by the ''greenhouse'' and why there are concerns which include not only CO{sub 2}, but also CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, and CFC's; (3) the geological record on CO{sub 2}--which likely was present at 1,000 times current levels when life began; (4) the solar luminosity and sunspot question; and (5) the current evidence for global climate change. We are at a juncture where we are attempting to understand the earth as an integrated dynamic system, rather than a collection of isolated components.

  16. Forest Policies Addressing Climate Change in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    As a developing country with a large population and a fragile ecological environment, China is particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Beginning with the Rio Conference of 1992 China has played a progressively enhanced role in combating climate change. A series of policies and measures to address climate change have been taken in the overall context of national sustainable development strategy, making positive contributions to the mitigation and adaptation to climate change, among ...

  17. Visiting a climate-influenced national park: the stability of climate change perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brownlee, Matthew Tyler James; Hallo, Jeffrey C; Wright, Brett A; Moore, Dewayne; Powell, Robert B

    2013-11-01

    Understanding perceptions of global environmental issues, such as climate change, can help inform resource management, policy development, and communication with constituents. Although a considerable amount of research documents citizens' perceptions of climate change, few have investigated how interactions with climate-impacted parks and protected areas influence these perceptions, and consequently elements of environmental management. Using a mixed methods Instrument Development Approach, the researchers examined the stability of park visitors' (N = 429) climate change perceptions during a daylong interaction with climate-sensitive and influenced resources at Kenai Fjords National Park in Alaska. Results indicate that global-level beliefs about climate change remained relatively stable during a park experience, but perceptions about climate change at the park-level (e.g., impacts) appeared more malleable. Findings also revealed the type of park experience (terrestrial vs. marine) can influence the degree of change in visitors' perceptions. Implications for communication, outreach, and park management are discussed.

  18. Weather anomalies affect Climate Change microblogging intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molodtsova, T.; Kirilenko, A.

    2012-12-01

    There is a huge gap between the scientific consensus and public understanding of climate change. Climate change has become a political issue and a "hot" topic in mass media that only adds the complexity to forming the public opinion. Scientists operate in scientific terms, not necessarily understandable by general public, while it is common for people to perceive the latest weather anomaly as an evidence of climate change. In 1998 Hansen et al. introduced a concept of an objectively measured subjective climate change indicator, which can relate public feeling that the climate is changing to the observed meteorological parameters. We tested this concept in a simple example of a temperature-based index, which we related to microblogging activity. Microblogging is a new form of communication in which the users describe their current status in short Internet messages. Twitter (http://twitter.com), is currently the most popular microblogging platform. There are multiple reasons, why this data is particularly valuable to the researches interested in social dynamics: microblogging is widely used to publicize one's opinion with the public; has broad, diverse audience, represented by users from many countries speaking different languages; finally, Twitter contains an enormous number of data, e.g., there were 1,284,579 messages related to climate change from 585,168 users in the January-May data collection. We collected the textual data entries, containing words "climate change" or "global warming" from the 1st of January, 2012. The data was retrieved from the Internet every 20 minutes using a specially developed Python code. Using geolocational information, blog entries originating from the New York urbanized area were selected. These entries, used as a source of public opinion on climate change, were related to the surface temperature, obtained from La Guardia airport meteorological station. We defined the "significant change" in the temperature index as deviation of the

  19. Risk Communication, Moral Emotions and Climate Change.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roeser, Sabine

    2012-01-01

    This article discusses the potential role that emotions might play in enticing a lifestyle that diminishes climate change. Climate change is an important challenge for society. There is a growing consensus that climate change is due to our behavior, but few people are willing to significantly adapt

  20. Climate Change Education for Mitigation and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Allison

    2012-01-01

    This article makes the case for the education sector an untapped opportunity to combat climate change. It sets forth a definition of Climate Change Education for Sustainable Development that is comprehensive and multidisciplinary and asserts that it must not only include relevant content knowledge on climate change, environmental and social…

  1. Climate Change Ignorance: An Unacceptable Legacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boon, Helen J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change effects will be most acutely felt by future generations. Recent prior research has shown that school students' knowledge of climate change science is very limited in rural Australia. The purpose of this study was to assess the capacity of preservice teachers and parents to transmit climate change information and understanding to…

  2. Conceptualizing Climate Change in the Context of a Climate System: Implications for Climate and Environmental Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Roychoudhury, Anita; Hirsch, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Today there is much interest in teaching secondary students about climate change. Much of this effort has focused directly on students' understanding of climate change. We hypothesize, however, that in order for students to understand climate change they must first understand climate as a system and how changes to this system due to both natural…

  3. Exploring Connections between Global Climate Indices and African Vegetation Phenology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; deBeurs, Kirsten; Vrieling, Anton

    2009-01-01

    Variations in agricultural production due to rainfall and temperature fluctuations are a primary cause of food insecurity on the continent in Africa. Agriculturally destructive droughts and floods are monitored from space using satellite remote sensing by organizations seeking to provide quantitative and predictive information about food security crises. Better knowledge on the relation between climate indices and food production may increase the use of these indices in famine early warning systems and climate outlook forums on the continent. Here we explore the relationship between phenology metrics derived from the 26 year AVHRR NDVI record and the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We explore spatial relationships between growing conditions as measured by the NDVI and the five climate indices in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa to determine the regions and periods when they have a significant impact. The focus is to provide a clear indication as to which climate index has the most impact on the three regions during the past quarter century. We found that the start of season and cumulative NDVI were significantly affected by variations in the climate indices. The particular climate index and the timing showing highest correlation depended heavily on the region examined. The research shows that climate indices can contribute to understanding growing season variability in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa.

  4. Climate modelling, uncertainty and responses to predictions of change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henderson-Sellers, A. [Climatic Impacts Centre, Macquarie University, Sydney (Australia)

    1996-12-31

    Article 4.1(F) of the Framework Convention on Climate Change commits all parties to take climate change considerations into account, to the extent feasible, in relevant social, economic and environmental policies and actions and to employ methods such as impact assessments to minimize adverse effects of climate change. This could be achieved by, inter alia, incorporating climate change risk assessment into development planning processes, i.e. relating climatic change to issues of habitability and sustainability. Adaptation is an ubiquitous and beneficial natural and human strategy. Future adaptation (adjustment) to climate is inevitable at the least to decrease the vulnerability to current climatic impacts. An urgent issue is the mismatch between the predictions of global climatic change and the need for information on local to regional change in order to develop adaptation strategies. Mitigation efforts are essential since the more successful mitigation activities are, the less need there will be for adaptation responses. And, mitigation responses can be global (e.g. a uniform percentage reduction in greenhouse gas emissions) while adaptation responses will be local to regional in character and therefore depend upon confident predictions of regional climatic change. The dilemma facing policymakers is that scientists have considerable confidence in likely global climatic changes but virtually zero confidence in regional changes. Mitigation and adaptation strategies relevant to climatic change can most usefully be developed in the context of sound understanding of climate, especially the near-surface continental climate, permitting discussion of societally relevant issues. But, climate models can`t yet deliver this type of regionally and locationally specific prediction and some aspects of current research even seem to indicate increased uncertainty. These topics are explored in this paper using the specific example of the prediction of land-surface climate changes.

  5. Climatic change and river ice breakup

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beltaos, S. [Environment Canada, National Water Research Institute, Burlington, ON (Canada); Burrell, B. C. [New Brunswick Dept. of the Environment and Local Government, Sciences and Planning Division, Fredericton, NB (Canada)

    2003-07-01

    An overview of climatic factors and impact relative to river ice engineering and science is presented. An explanation of the fundamentals of climatic change is followed by a review of direct and indirect climatic influences that govern river ice breakup and related trends. Known responses of river ice to climatic change and potential future changes to ice breakup processes are described along with the probable ecological and socio-economic consequences of these changes. Changes in engineering approaches to accommodate the present ice regime and predicted changes in climatic variables that affect river ice processes and reduce the vulnerability of infrastructure and ecosystems to climatic change are examined. Future research on the links between river ice and stream ecology is suggested to identify ecological concerns that may result from changes in river ice regimes induced by climatic change. 60 refs., 3 figs.

  6. Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.

    2015-01-01

    Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

  7. Tropical deforestation and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ebeling, J.

    2006-08-15

    This dissertation evaluates recent proposals to include tropical deforestation into international climate change mitigation strategies. Deforestation is responsible for up to 25 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. The research aim here is to evaluate implications of a range of policy options for the environmental effectiveness of a prospective agreement, as well as for its political and economic attractiveness for different countries and stakeholders. A literature review, 48 key stakeholder interviews, analyses of submissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), modelling approaches and statistical analyses were carried out to answer these questions. On this basis the study identifies potential deal breakers and explores possible solutions to existing 'real' and perceived obstacles. Findings suggest that, given sufficient political will, an effective agreement between current UNFCCC Parties is feasible and that existing concerns can be addressed in pragmatic ways. Among the different policy alternatives, creating a new carbon trading mechanism under a post-2012 Kyoto regime is likely to deliver greatest economic and environmental benefits. Measuring emission reductions against national-level baselines based on historical base periods would increase the environmental integrity of resulting carbon credits. The study also finds that potential monetary benefits are distributed very unevenly between potential host countries, and that this may partly explain current negotiation positions. Complementary approaches, not based on emission trading, may have to be developed to foster broader support for an agreement. Finally, setting more ambitious emission reduction targets for industrialised countries would overcome concerns about 'flooding' of carbon markets, and would make the most of a unique opportunity to tackle both climate change and deforestation.

  8. Regional climate change mitigation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rowlands, Ian H. [UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment, and Univ. of Waterloo (Canada)

    1998-10-01

    The purpose of this paper is to explore some of the key methodological issues that arise from an analysis of regional climate change mitigation options. The rationale for any analysis of regional mitigation activities, emphasising both the theoretical attractiveness and the existing political encouragement and the methodology that has been developed are reviewed. The differences arising from the fact that mitigation analyses have been taken from the level of the national - where the majority of the work has been completed to date - to the level of the international - that is, the `regional` - will be especially highlighted. (EG)

  9. Renewable energy and climate change

    CERN Document Server

    Quaschning, Volker

    2010-01-01

    This dazzling introductory textbook encompasses the full range of today's important renewable energy technologies. Solar thermal, photovoltaic, wind, hydro, biomass and geothermal energy receive balanced treatment with one exciting and informative chapter devoted to each. As well as a complete overview of these state-of-the-art technologies, the chapters provide: clear analysis on their development potentials; an evaluation of the economic aspects involved; concrete guidance for practical implementation; how to reduce your own energy waste. If we do not act now to stop climate change, the cons.

  10. Virgin's Knight tackles climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banks, Michael

    2008-11-01

    "There is no greater or more immediate challenge than that posed by climate change," said Sir Richard Branson, chairman of the Virgin group, via video-link at the 59th International Astronautical Congress (IAC) held in Glasgow in the UK at the end of September. That grand statement may seem like a lot of hot air for the entrepreneur best known for his attempt to circumnavigate the globe by balloon. But Branson went on to reveal that Virgin Galactic, which aims to fly passengers 100 km into space for 200 000 per trip, will also provide room on its craft for a series of scientific experiments to study the Earth's atmosphere.

  11. A history of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hastrup, Kirsten Blinkenberg

    2017-01-01

    they were first described and became known to outsiders, it is shown how flexibility and mobility were always preconditions for survival in this environment. Then, they were trapped in too much ice, while now they have to negotiate a rapidly melting environment. In both cases their response is deeply......This article presents a small community of High Arctic hunters (the Inughuit in North West Greenland) who have always had to negotiate climatic changes with great impact on their living conditions. This points us toward the natural-social entanglements implied in the notion of the Anthropocene...

  12. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): A European Answer to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thepaut, Jean-Noel

    2016-04-01

    Copernicus is the European Commission's flagship Earth observation programme that delivers freely accessible operational data and information services. ECMWF has been entrusted to operate two key parts of the Copernicus programme, which will bring a consistent standard to the measurement, forecasting and prediction of atmospheric conditions and climate change: • The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, CAMS, provides daily forecasts detailing the makeup composition of the atmosphere from the ground up to the stratosphere. • The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) (in development) will routinely monitor and analyse more than 20 essential climate variables to build a global picture of our climate, from the past to the future, as well as developing customisable climate indicators for relevant economic sectors, such as energy, water management, agriculture, insurance, health…. C3S has now taken off and a number of proof-of-concept sectoral climate services have been initiated. This paper will focus on the description and expected outcome of these proof-of-concept activities as well as the definition of a roadmap towards a fully operational European Climate Change Service.

  13. India's National Action Plan on Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Pandve, Harshal T.

    2009-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most critical global challenges of our times. Recent events have emphatically demonstrated our growing vulnerability to climate change. Climate change impacts will range from affecting agriculture – further endangering food security – to sea-level rise and the accelerated erosion of coastal zones, increasing intensity of natural disasters, species extinction, and the spread of vector-borne diseases. India released its much-awaited National Action Plan on Climate C...

  14. Climate Change and Corporate Environmental Responsibility

    OpenAIRE

    Dewan Mahboob HOSSAIN; Chowdhury, M. Jahangir Alam

    2012-01-01

    Climate change, as an international environmental issue, is getting a lot of attention. The negative effects of climate change have become one of the most talked about issues among Governments, scientists, environmentalists and others. It is said that business activities are affecting the climate negatively. In order to minimize the negative effects of climate change, the activities of the businesses should be controlled and encouraged to perform in a socially responsible manner. The article ...

  15. Changes of temperature-related agroclimatic indices in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graczyk, D.; Kundzewicz, Z. W.

    2016-04-01

    The agricultural sector in Poland is of considerable social and economic importance for the nation. Climate variability and change are of primary relevance to this largely climate-dependent sector. Changes in seven temperature-related agroclimatic indices (lengths of the growing season and of the frost-free season, days of occurrence of the last spring frost and of the first autumn frost; and annual sums of growing degree-days for three values of temperature threshold) in Poland in 1951-2010 are examined. As expected, they generally correspond to the overwhelming and ubiquitous warming. Many, but not all, detected trends are statistically significant. However, for some indices, strong natural variability overshadows eventual trends. Projections of temperature-related agroclimatic indices for the future, based on regional climate models, are also discussed.

  16. The challenges of communicating climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emiliano Feresin

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The climate change issue has become increasingly present in our society in the last decade and central also to communication studies. In the e-book “Communicating Climate Change: Discourses, Mediations and Perceptions”, edited by Anabela Carvalho, various scholars investigate how climate change challenges communication by looking at three main aspects: the discourses of a variety of social actors on climate change; the reconstruction of those discourses in the media; the citizens’ perceptions, understandings and attitudes in relation to climate change.

  17. Potential indicator species of climate changes occurring in Québec, Part 1: the small brown lacewing fly Micromus posticus (Walker (Neuroptera: Hemerobiidae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurent LeSage

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Micromus posticus (Walker is a small brown lacewing fly rarely collected in Canada and represented in collections by only a limited number of specimens. Indeed, fewer than 50 specimens were captured in Québec and Ontario over the last century, all within a small area delimited by the northern shore of Lake Erie, Ottawa and Montréal. Aylmer, located on the north shore of the Ottawa River, northwest of Ottawa, is a new, most southwestern locality record of this species for Québec. The Aylmer specimens were collected 1-7 days later than any of the known specimens collected elsewhere in Québec or in Ontario, and 16-22 days later than in the neighbouring localities, indicating an apparent phenological shift.

  18. Proximity to coast is linked to climate change belief.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milfont, Taciano L; Evans, Laurel; Sibley, Chris G; Ries, Jan; Cunningham, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    Psychologists have examined the many psychological barriers to both climate change belief and concern. One barrier is the belief that climate change is too uncertain, and likely to happen in distant places and times, to people unlike oneself. Related to this perceived psychological distance of climate change, studies have shown that direct experience of the effects of climate change increases climate change concern. The present study examined the relationship between physical proximity to the coastline and climate change belief, as proximity may be related to experiencing or anticipating the effects of climate change such as sea-level rise. We show, in a national probability sample of 5,815 New Zealanders, that people living in closer proximity to the shoreline expressed greater belief that climate change is real and greater support for government regulation of carbon emissions. This proximity effect held when adjusting for height above sea level and regional poverty. The model also included individual differences in respondents' sex, age, education, political orientation, and wealth. The results indicate that physical place plays a role in the psychological acceptance of climate change, perhaps because the effects of climate change become more concrete and local.

  19. Proximity to coast is linked to climate change belief.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taciano L Milfont

    Full Text Available Psychologists have examined the many psychological barriers to both climate change belief and concern. One barrier is the belief that climate change is too uncertain, and likely to happen in distant places and times, to people unlike oneself. Related to this perceived psychological distance of climate change, studies have shown that direct experience of the effects of climate change increases climate change concern. The present study examined the relationship between physical proximity to the coastline and climate change belief, as proximity may be related to experiencing or anticipating the effects of climate change such as sea-level rise. We show, in a national probability sample of 5,815 New Zealanders, that people living in closer proximity to the shoreline expressed greater belief that climate change is real and greater support for government regulation of carbon emissions. This proximity effect held when adjusting for height above sea level and regional poverty. The model also included individual differences in respondents' sex, age, education, political orientation, and wealth. The results indicate that physical place plays a role in the psychological acceptance of climate change, perhaps because the effects of climate change become more concrete and local.

  20. Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing Countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mertz, Ole; Halsnæs, Kirsten; Olesen, Jørgen E.

    2009-01-01

    Adaptation to climate change is given increasing international attention as the confidence in climate change projections is getting higher. Developing countries have specific needs for adaptation due to high vulnerabilities, and they will in this way carry a great part of the global costs...... of climate change although the rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are mainly the responsibility of industrialized countries. This article provides a status of climate change adaptation in developing countries. An overview of observed and projected climate change is given, and recent literature...... on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation are reviewed, including the emerging focus on mainstreaming of climate change and adaptation in development plans and programs. The article also serves as an introduction to the seven research articles of this special issue on climate change adaptation in developing...

  1. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

    2010-12-14

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  2. Potential impacts of climatic change upon geographical distributions of birds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huntley, Brian; Collingham, Yvonne C.; Green, Rhys E.

    2006-01-01

    Potential climatic changes of the near future have important characteristics that differentiate them from the largest magnitude and most rapid of climatic changes of the Quaternary. These potential climatic changes are thus a cause for considerable concern in terms of their possible impacts upon...... biodiversity. Birds, in common with other terrestrial organisms, are expected to exhibit one of two general responses to climatic change: they may adapt to the changed conditions without shifting location, or they may show a spatial response, adjusting their geographical distribution in response...... to the changing climate. The Quaternary geological record provides examples of organisms that responded to the climatic fluctuations of that period in each of these ways, but also indicates that the two are not alternative responses but components of the same overall predominantly spatial response. Species unable...

  3. Trust in Scientists on Climate Change and Vaccines

    OpenAIRE

    Hamilton, Lawrence C.; Joel Hartter; Kei Saito

    2015-01-01

    On climate change and other topics, conservatives have taken positions at odds with a strong scientific consensus. Claims that this indicates a broad conservative distrust of science have been countered by assertions that while conservatives might oppose the scientific consensus on climate change or evolution, liberals oppose scientists on some other domains such as vaccines. Evidence for disproportionately liberal bia...

  4. Climate Change in the Preservice Teacher's Mind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Julie L.; Bleicher, Robert E.

    2013-01-01

    Given the recent media attention on the public's shift in opinion toward being more skeptical about climate change, 154 preservice teachers' participated in an intervention in an elementary science methods course. Findings indicated that students developed a deeper level of concern about climate change. Their perceptions on the evidence…

  5. [Climate change and Kyoto protocol].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ergasti, G; Pippia, V; Murzilli, G; De Luca D'Alessandro, E

    2009-01-01

    Due to industrial revolution and the heavy use of fossil fuels, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased dramatically during the last hundred years, and this has lead to an increase in mean global temperature. The environmental consequences of this are: the melting of the ice caps, an increase in mean sea-levels, catastrophic events such as floodings, hurricanes and earthquakes, changes to the animal and vegetable kingdoms, a growth in vectors and bacteria in water thus increasing the risk of infectious diseases and damage to agriculture. The toxic effects of the pollution on human health are both acute and chronic. The Kyoto Protocol is an important step in the campaign against climatic changes but it is not sufficient. A possible solution might be for the States which produce the most of pollution to adopt a better political stance for the environment and to use renewable resources for the production of energy.

  6. Contributions of Psychology to Limiting Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Paul C.

    2011-01-01

    Psychology can make a significant contribution to limiting the magnitude of climate change by improving understanding of human behaviors that drive climate change and human reactions to climate-related technologies and policies, and by turning that understanding into effective interventions. This article develops a framework for psychological…

  7. Climate change. Scientific background and process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Seip, Hans Martin; Skodvin, Tora

    1999-07-01

    The paper describes briefly the natural and man-made forces behind climate change and outlines climate variations in the past. It also discusses the future impact of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases, and the background, organisation and functioning of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

  8. Science Teachers' Perspectives about Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Vaille

    2012-01-01

    Climate change and its effects are likely to present challenging problems for future generations of young people. It is important for Australian students to understand the mechanisms and consequences of climate change. If students are to develop a sophisticated understanding, then science teachers need to be well-informed about climate change…

  9. Climate Change Adaptation in the Water Sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ludwig, F.; Kabat, P.; Schaik, van H.; Valk, van der M.

    2009-01-01

    Today’s climate variability already has a large impact on water supply and protection. Millions of people are affected every year by droughts and floods. Future climate change is likely to make things worse. Many people within the water sector are aware that climate change is affecting water resourc

  10. Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Tomé, Margarida; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.

  11. Rethinking climate change as a security threat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoch, Corinne

    2011-10-15

    Once upon a time climate change was a strictly environment and development issue. Today it has become a matter of national and international security. Efforts to link climate change with violent conflict may not be based on solid evidence, but they have certainly captured the attention of governments. They have played a vital role in raising the much-needed awareness of climate change as an issue that deserves global action. But at what cost? Focusing on climate change as a security threat alone risks devolving humanitarian responsibilities to the military, ignoring key challenges and losing sight of those climate-vulnerable communities that stand most in need of protection.

  12. Quantitative approaches in climate change ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brown, Christopher J.; Schoeman, David S.; Sydeman, William J.

    2011-01-01

    climate variability and other drivers of change. To assist the development of reliable statistical approaches, we review the marine climate change literature and provide suggestions for quantitative approaches in climate change ecology. We compiled 267 peer‐reviewed articles that examined relationships...... between climate change and marine ecological variables. Of the articles with time series data (n = 186), 75% used statistics to test for a dependency of ecological variables on climate variables. We identified several common weaknesses in statistical approaches, including marginalizing other important non...

  13. Spring Indices (SI): National (and Global) Indicators of Climate Impacts on Ecosystems and Society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betancourt, J. L.; Schwartz, M. D.; Ault, T. R.; McCabe, G. J.; Macalady, A. K.; Pederson, G. T.; Cook, B. P.; Henebry, G. M.; Moore, D. J.; Enquist, C.

    2011-12-01

    Indicators are vital in everyday life, such as tracking blood pressure to assess your health or monitoring the nation's economy using unemployment rates. Tracking the state of the environment in a uniform and integrated manner requires simple and broadly-applicable indicators of year-to-year variability and change. For example, indices such as the Start of Season (SOS) in remotely-sensed land surface phenology, Center of Mass (CM) in the hydrology of snowfed inland waters, and other biogeophysical metrics are being widely used as metrics of global change in seasonal timing. Here, we present a new, standardized spring index (SSI) that uses only daily minimum and maximum temperatures as input. This builds on an earlier version of the spring indices (SI) for lilac and honeysuckle phenology (first leaf and first flower) that required plant chilling to be satisfied over winter. The SSI tracks the transition from winter to spring by tallying phenologically relevant variables, (such as the number and intensity of warm days and total hours of sunlight) from January 1st onward, while ignoring the chilling requirement. This adjustment allows determination of first leaf and first bloom dates across the entire USA, including southernmost latitudes. Outputs from the new SSI is highly correlated with the earlier version, and both models process weather data into indices directly related to growth and development of many plants. Spatially averaged anomalies of SSI are well correlated with remotely sensed data and phenological observations from a wide variety of trees and shrubs in Europe, China, and North America. An advantage of SSI is that it only "sees" the atmosphere, meaning that it is free of local biological effects. Therefore, it can enhance the ability to identify important relationships between the large-scale climate modes of variability and the index itself, an advantage over other plant-based indices (such as SOS). If the state of these atmospheric modes can be

  14. Portuguese wine regions under a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, João A.; Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Jones, Gregory V.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2014-05-01

    Viticulture and wine production are among the most important sectors of the Portuguese economy. However, as grapevines are strongly affected by weather and climate, climate change may represent an important threat to wine production. The current (1950-2000) and future (2041-2070) bioclimatic conditions in Portugal are discussed by analyzing a number of indices suitable for viticultural zoning, including a categorized bioclimatic index. A two-step method of spatial pattern downscaling is applied in order to achieve a very high spatial resolution (of approximately 1 km) throughout Portugal. Future projections are based on an ensemble of 13 climate model transient experiments, forced by the SRES A1B emission scenario. Results for the recent past are in clear agreement with the current distribution of vineyards and of the established Denomination of Origin regions. Furthermore, the typical climatic conditions associated with each grapevine variety that are currently grown in Portugal are assessed. Under future scenarios, nevertheless, the current conditions are projected to change significantly towards a lower bioclimatic diversity. This can be explained by the projected warming and drying in future decades. The resulting changes in varietal suitability and wine characteristics of each region may thereby bring important challenges for the Portuguese winemaking sector. As such, new measures need to be timely implemented to adapt to these climate change projections and to mitigate their likely detrimental impacts on the Portuguese economy. Acknowledgments: this work is supported by European Union Funds (FEDER/COMPETE - Operational Competitiveness Programme) and by national funds (FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) under the project ClimVineSafe (PTDC/AGR-ALI/110877/2009).

  15. Pacific Islands Climate Change Virtual Library

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Virtual Library provides access to web based climate variability and climate change information and tools relevant to the Pacific Islands including case studies,...

  16. Climate Change, Health, and Populations of Concern

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page contains communication materials that summarize key points from the U.S. Climate and Health Assessment for eight different populations that are disproportionately affected by climate change impacts.

  17. The human factor: climate change and climate communication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2011-01-01

    Reprint and translation of the article: “Den menneskelige faktor” published in the magazine Klima&Tilpasning Publisher: “Coordination unit for Research in Climate Change Adaptation” (KFT)......Reprint and translation of the article: “Den menneskelige faktor” published in the magazine Klima&Tilpasning Publisher: “Coordination unit for Research in Climate Change Adaptation” (KFT)...

  18. Climate Cases: Learning about Student Conceptualizations of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierney, Benjamin P.

    2013-01-01

    The complex topic of global climate change continues to be a challenging yet important topic among science educators and researchers. This mixed methods study adds to the growing research by investigating student conceptions of climate change from a system theory perspective (Von Bertalanffy, 1968) by asking the question, "How do differences…

  19. Abrupt climate change: can society cope?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hulme, Mike

    2003-09-15

    Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long-term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being

  20. Development And Climate Change In Egypt: Focus On Coastal Resources

    OpenAIRE

    M. El Raey; Hagenstad, M.; Smith, J.; Agrawala, S.; M. van Aalst; Conway, D.; Moehner, A.

    2004-01-01

    This report presents the integrated case study for Egypt carried out under an OECD project on Development and Climate Change. The report is structured around a three-tiered framework. First, recent climate trends and climate change scenarios for Egypt are assessed and key sectoral impacts are identified and ranked along multiple indicators to establish priorities for adaptation. Second, donor portfolios are analyzed to examine the proportion of development assistance activities af...

  1. Climate Masters of Nebraska: An Innovative Action-Based Approach for Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathak, Tapan B.; Bernadt, Tonya; Umphlett, Natalie

    2014-01-01

    Climate Masters of Nebraska is an innovative educational program that strategically trains community volunteers about climate change science and corresponding ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in an interactive and action-based teaching environment. As a result of the program, 91% of participants indicated that they made informed changes in…

  2. Climate Change Education in Earth System Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänsel, Stephanie; Matschullat, Jörg

    2013-04-01

    The course "Atmospheric Research - Climate Change" is offered to master Earth System Science students within the specialisation "Climate and Environment" at the Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg. This module takes a comprehensive approach to climate sciences, reaching from the natural sciences background of climate change via the social components of the issue to the statistical analysis of changes in climate parameters. The course aims at qualifying the students to structure the physical and chemical basics of the climate system including relevant feedbacks. The students can evaluate relevant drivers of climate variability and change on various temporal and spatial scales and can transform knowledge from climate history to the present and the future. Special focus is given to the assessment of uncertainties related to climate observations and projections as well as the specific challenges of extreme weather and climate events. At the end of the course the students are able to critically reflect and evaluate climate change related results of scientific studies and related issues in media. The course is divided into two parts - "Climate Change" and "Climate Data Analysis" and encompasses two lectures, one seminar and one exercise. The weekly "Climate change" lecture transmits the physical and chemical background for climate variation and change. (Pre)historical, observed and projected climate changes and their effects on various sectors are being introduced and discussed regarding their implications for society, economics, ecology and politics. The related seminar presents and discusses the multiple reasons for controversy in climate change issues, based on various texts. Students train the presentation of scientific content and the discussion of climate change aspects. The biweekly lecture on "Climate data analysis" introduces the most relevant statistical tools and methods in climate science. Starting with checking data quality via tools of exploratory

  3. Climate Change in Myanmar: Impacts and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    complex field of study developed from a rather simple idea. Climate, as described by Harun Rashid and Bimal Paul, can be defined as...Harun Rashid and Bimal Paul, Climate Change in Bangladesh: Confronting Impending Disasters (Lanham, MD: Lexington Books, 2014), 3–4. 43 “Climate...El Nino seasons, the warming trend has continued in a positive 44 Rashid and Paul, Climate Change

  4. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kanchan Joshi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has materialized as the leading global environmental concern. Agriculture is one of the zones most critically distressed by climate alteration. As global temperature rises and climate conditions become more erratic posing threat to the vegetation, biodiversity, biological progression and have enduring effect on food security as well as human health. The present review emphasizes multiple consequences of climate change on agricultural productivity.

  5. Economic Consequences Of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szlávik, János; Füle, Miklós

    2009-07-01

    Even though the climate conflict resulting from green houses gases (GHG) emissions was evident by the Nineties and the well-known agreements made, their enforcement is more difficult than that of other environmental agreements. That is because measures to reduce GHG emissions interfere with the heart of the economy and the market: energy (in a broader sense than the energy sector as defined by statistics) and economical growth. Analyzing the environmental policy responses to climate change the conclusion is that GHG emission reduction can only be achieved through intensive environmental policy. While extensive environmental protection complements production horizontally, intensive environmental protection integrates into production and the environment vertically. The latter eliminates the source of the pollution, preventing damage. It utilizes the biochemical processes and self-purification of the natural environment as well as technical development which not only aims to produce state-of-the-art goods, but to make production more environmentally friendly, securing a desired environmental state. While in extensive environmental protection the intervention comes from the outside for creating environmental balance, in intensive environmental protection the system recreates this balance itself. Instead of dealing with the consequences and the polluter pays principle, the emphasis is on prevention. It is important to emphasize that climate strategy decisions have complex effects regarding the aspects of sustainability (economical, social, ecological). Therefore, all decisions are political. At present, and in the near future, market economy decisions have little to do with sustainability values under normal circumstances. Taking social and ecological interests into consideration can only be successful through strategic political aims.

  6. Climate change and nuclear power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schneider, M

    2000-04-01

    The nuclear industry has increased its efforts to have nuclear power plants integrated into the post- Kyoto negotiating process of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) states: ''For many reasons, current and future nuclear energy projects are a superior method of generating emission credits that must be considered as the US expands the use of market- based mechanisms designed around emission credit creation and trading to achieve environmental goals ''. The NEI considers that nuclear energy should be allowed to enter all stages of the Kyoto ''flexibility Mechanisms'': emissions trading, joint implementation and the Clean Development Mechanism. The industry sees the operation of nuclear reactors as emission ''avoidance actions'' and believes that increasing the generation of nuclear power above the 1990 baseline year either through extension and renewal of operating licenses or new nuclear plant should be accepted under the flexibility mechanisms in the same way as wind, solar and hydro power. For the time being, there is no clear definition of the framework conditions for operating the flexibility mechanisms. However, eligible mechanisms must contribute to the ultimate objective of the Climate Convention of preventing ''dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system''. The information presented in the following sections of this report underlines that nuclear power is not a sustainable source of energy, for many reasons. In conclusion, an efficient greenhouse gas abatement strategy will be based on energy efficiency and not on the use of nuclear power. (author)

  7. Maize leaf development under climate change scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nereu Augusto Streck

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to simulate maize leaf development in climate change scenarios at Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, considering symmetric and asymmetric increases in air temperature. The model of Wang & Engel for leaf appearance rate (LAR, with genotype-specific coefficients for the maize variety BRS Missões, was used to simulate tip and expanded leaf accumulated number from emergence to flag leaf appearance and expansion, for nine emergence dates from August 15 to April 15. LAR model was run for each emergence date in 100-year climate scenarios: current climate, and +1, +2, +3, +4 and +5°C increase in mean air temperature, with symmetric and asymmetric increase in daily minimum and maximum air temperature. Maize crop failure due to frost decreased in elevated temperature scenarios, in the very early and very late emergence dates, indicating a lengthening in the maize growing season in warmer climates. The leaf development period in maize was shorter in elevated temperature scenarios, with greater shortening in asymmetric temperature increases, indicating that warmer nights accelerate vegetative development in maize.

  8. Hydrological responses to climate change in Mt. Elgon watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Musau

    2015-03-01

    New Hydrological Insights for the Region: Comparison between the simulated baseline and future streamflow shows that in the Koitobos and Kimilili watersheds, August to December streamflow is likely to be highly altered. In the Kuywa watershed, March to June flows is likely to change considerably due to climate change. Major streamflow changes are likely in March to June and August to November in the Rongai watershed. Projected changes differed between the four watersheds despite their proximity, indicating different sensitivities to climate change and uncertainty about the potential hydrological impacts of climate change in the area.

  9. Responding to the Consequences of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrand, Peter H.

    2011-01-01

    The talk addresses the scientific consensus concerning climate change, and outlines the many paths that are open to mitigate climate change and its effects on human activities. Diverse aspects of the changing water cycle on Earth are used to illustrate the reality climate change. These include melting snowpack, glaciers, and sea ice; changes in runoff; rising sea level; moving ecosystems, an more. Human forcing of climate change is then explained, including: greenhouse gasses, atmospheric aerosols, and changes in land use. Natural forcing effects are briefly discussed, including volcanoes and changes in the solar cycle. Returning to Earth's water cycle, the effects of climate-induced changes in water resources is presented. Examples include wildfires, floods and droughts, changes in the production and availability of food, and human social reactions to these effects. The lk then passes to a discussion of common human reactions to these forecasts of climate change effects, with a summary of recent research on the subject, plus several recent historical examples of large-scale changes in human behavior that affect the climate and ecosystems. Finally, in the face for needed action on climate, the many options for mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects are presented, with examples of the ability to take affordable, and profitable action at most all levels, from the local, through national.

  10. How Will Climate Change Impact Cholera Outbreaks?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasr Azadani, F.; Jutla, A.; Rahimikolu, J.; Akanda, A. S.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

    2014-12-01

    Environmental parameters associated with cholera are well documented. However, cholera continues to be a global public health threat. Uncertainty in defining environmental processes affecting growth and multiplication of the cholera bacteria can be affected significantly by changing climate at different temporal and spatial scales, either through amplification of the hydroclimatic cycle or by enhanced variability of large scale geophysical processes. Endemic cholera in the Bengal Delta region of South Asia has a unique pattern of two seasonal peaks and there are associated with asymmetric and episodic variability in river discharge. The first cholera outbreak in spring is related with intrusion of bacteria laden coastal seawater during low river discharge. Cholera occurring during the fall season is hypothesized to be associated with high river discharge related to a cross-contamination of water resources and, therefore, a second wave of disease, a phenomenon characteristic primarily in the inland regions. Because of difficulties in establishing linkage between coarse resolutions of the Global Climate Model (GCM) output and localized disease outbreaks, the impact of climate change on diarrheal disease has not been explored. Here using the downscaling method of Support Vector Machines from HADCM3 and ECHAM models, we show how cholera outbreak patterns are changing in the Bengal Delta. Our preliminary results indicate statistically significant changes in both seasonality and magnitude in the occurrence of cholera over the next century. Endemic cholera is likely to transform into epidemic forms and new geographical areas will be at risk for cholera outbreaks.

  11. Considerations in Starting Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, J. C. S.; Morgan, G.; Hamburg, S.; Winickoff, D. E.

    2014-12-01

    Many have called for climate engineering research because the growing risks of climate change and the geopolitical and national security risks of climate remediation technologies are real. As the topic of climate engineering remains highly controversial, national funding agencies should evaluate even modest outdoor climate engineering research proposals with respect to societal, legal, and risk considerations in making a decision to fund or not to fund. These concerns will be extremely difficult to coordinate internationally if they are not first considered successfully on a national basis. Assessment of a suite of proposed research projects with respect to these considerations indicates we would learn valuable lessons about how to govern research by initiating a few exemplar projects. The first time an issue arrives it can be very helpful if it there are specific cases, not a broad class of projects. A good first case should be defensible and understandable, fit within the general mandate of existing research programs, have negligible physical risk, small physical scale and short duration. By focusing on a specific case, the discussion can be held with limits and help to establish some track record in dealing with a controversial subject and developing a process for assigning appropriate scrutiny and outreach. Even at an early stage, with low risk, small-scale experiments, obtaining broad-based advice will aid in dealing with the controversies. An independent advisory body can provide guidance about a wide spectrum of physical and social risks of funding the experiment compared to societal benefit of gaining understanding. Clearly identifying the research as climate engineering research avoids sending research down a path that might violate public trust and provide an important opportunity to grow governance and public engagement at an early stage. Climate engineering research should be seen in the context of all approaches to dealing with the climate problem

  12. Assessing urban adaptive capacity to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araya-Muñoz, Dahyann; Metzger, Marc J; Stuart, Neil; Wilson, A Meriwether W; Alvarez, Luis

    2016-12-01

    Despite the growing number of studies focusing on urban vulnerability to climate change, adaptive capacity, which is a key component of the IPCC definition of vulnerability, is rarely assessed quantitatively. We examine the capacity of adaptation in the Concepción Metropolitan Area, Chile. A flexible methodology based on spatial fuzzy modelling was developed to standardise and aggregate, through a stepwise approach, seventeen indicators derived from widely available census statistical data into an adaptive capacity index. The results indicate that all the municipalities in the CMA increased their level of adaptive capacity between 1992 and 2002. However, the relative differences between municipalities did not change significantly over the studied timeframe. Fuzzy overlay allowed us to standardise and to effectively aggregate indicators with differing ranges and granularities of attribute values into an overall index. It also provided a conceptually sound and reproducible means of exploring the interplay of many indicators that individually influence adaptive capacity. Furthermore, it captured the complex, aggregated and continued nature of the adaptive capacity, favouring to deal with gaps of data and knowledge associated with the concept of adaptive capacity. The resulting maps can help identify municipalities where adaptive capacity is weak and identify which components of adaptive capacity need strengthening. Identification of these capacity conditions can stimulate dialogue amongst policymakers and stakeholders regarding how to manage urban areas and how to prioritise resources for urban development in ways that can also improve adaptive capacity and thus reduce vulnerability to climate change.

  13. China's response to climate change issues after Paris Climate Change Conference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun Gao

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The Paris Climate Change Conference was successfully concluded with the Paris Agreement, which is a milestone for the world in collectively combating climate change. By participating in IPCC assessments and conducting national climate change assessments, China has been increasing its understanding of the issue. For the first time, China's top leader attended the Conference of the Parties, which indicates the acknowledgement of the rationality and necessity of climate change response by China at different levels. Moreover, this participation reflects China's commitment to including climate change in its ecology improvement program and pursuing a low-carbon society and economy. In order to ensure the success of the Paris Conference, China has contributed significantly. China's constructive participation in global governance shows that China is a responsible power. These principles such as the creation of a future of win–win cooperation with each country contributing to the best of its ability; a future of the rule of law, fairness, and justice; and a future of inclusiveness, mutual learning, and common development will serve as China's guidelines in its efforts to facilitate the implementation of the Paris Agreement and participate in the design of international systems.

  14. Covering Climate Change in Wikipedia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arritt, R. W.; Connolley, W.; Ramjohn, I.; Schulz, S.; Wickert, A. D.

    2010-12-01

    The first hit in an internet search for "global warming" using any of the three leading search engines (Google, Bing, or Yahoo) is the article "Global warming" in the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. The article garners about half a million page views per month. In addition to the site's visibility with the public, Wikipedia's articles on climate-related topics are widely referenced by policymakers, media outlets, and academia. Despite the site's strong influence on public understanding of science, few geoscientists actively participate in Wikipedia, with the result that the community that edits these articles is mostly composed of individuals with little or no expertise in the topic at hand. In this presentation we discuss how geoscientists can help shape public understanding of science by contributing to Wikipedia. Although Wikipedia prides itself on being "the encyclopedia that anyone can edit," the site has policies regarding contributions and behavior that can be pitfalls for newcomers. This presentation is intended as a guide for the geoscience community in contributing to information about climate change in this widely-used reference.

  15. Climate Trends and Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change in Zambia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulenga, Brian P.; Wineman, Ayala; Sitko, Nicholas J.

    2017-02-01

    A number of studies use meteorological records to analyze climate trends and assess the impact of climate change on agricultural yields. While these provide quantitative evidence on climate trends and the likely effects thereof, they incorporate limited qualitative analysis of farmers' perceptions of climate change and/or variability. The present study builds on the quantitative methods used elsewhere to analyze climate trends, and in addition compares local narratives of climate change with evidence found in meteorological records in Zambia. Farmers offer remarkably consistent reports of a rainy season that is growing shorter and less predictable. For some climate parameters—notably, rising average temperature—there is a clear overlap between farmers' observations and patterns found in the meteorological records. However, the data do not support the perception that the rainy season used to begin earlier, and we generally do not detect a reported increase in the frequency of dry spells. Several explanations for these discrepancies are offered. Further, we provide policy recommendations to help farmers adapt to climate change/variability, as well as suggestions to shape future climate change policies, programs, and research in developing countries.

  16. The Climate Change Challenge for Land Professionals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enemark, Stig

    2014-01-01

    monitoring systems and systems for land administration and management should serve as a basis for climate change mitigation and adaptation as well as prevention and management of natural disasters. In facing the climate change challenge the role of land professionals is twofold: • Monitoring change...... such as sea level rise and environmental degradation through global positioning infrastructures and data interpretation and presentation; • Implementing climate change adaptation and mitigation measures into land administration systems and systems for disaster risk management. This paper provides an overall...... understanding of the climate change challenge and looks at land governance as a key means of contributing to climate change adaptation as well disaster risk prevention and management. More specifically the paper looks at identifying the role of land professionals in addressing the climate change challenge...

  17. Coastal tourism and climate change in Tunisia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henia, Latifa; Hlaoui, Zouhaier; Alouane, Tahar

    2014-05-01

    Tunisia is a major tourist destination on the southern shore of the Mediterranean. The tourism sector occupies an important place in the Tunisian economy with 816 hotels, 229,873 beds and a more than six million tourists at the end of the first decade of the 21th century, i.e. , more than half of the population. It offers a large number of direct and indirect jobs: One out of five people work in the tourism sector. The 1960s tourism boom was caused by a number of factors including long days of sunshine, 1,300 km of sandy coast, and a location close to Europe. Tunisian tourism is fundamentally based on two natural determinants: the sun and the sea. The coastline accounts for 95% of tourism investments and functional beds. The high season extends from April to October and it records 73% of nonresident tourists. This results in a homogenous growth of the "product" and its "consumers". This standardization is an important factor in the vulnerability of the Tunisian tourism to climate change. Global warming may affect the comfort level of the swimming season as well as its structure. An estimation of air and water temperature evolution near the Tunisian coasts was conducted under the CLIM-RUN project "Climate Local Information in the Mediterranean Region: Responding to User Needs" funded by the European Union's Seventh Framework Program (FP7). The University of Tunis research unit "GREVACHOT", project partner in charge of the case study of Tunisian tourism, has made the study of comfort indices of the present climate. This paper presents: - The climate comfort indices for seaside tourism in Tunisia, - The approach and results of the future evolution of air and water temperatures by the Tunisian coasts, - The future evolution of climate seaside comfort indices of Tunisia as well as the evolution of the swimming season in relation to global warming.

  18. Abrupt climate change:Debate or action

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHENG Hai

    2004-01-01

    Global abrupt climate changes have been documented by various climate records, including ice cores,ocean sediment cores, lake sediment cores, cave deposits,loess deposits and pollen records. The climate system prefers to be in one of two stable states, i.e. interstadial or stadial conditions, but not in between. The transition between two states has an abrupt character. Abrupt climate changes are,in general, synchronous in the northern hemisphere and tropical regions. The timescale for abrupt climate changes can be as short as a decade. As the impacts may be potentially serious, we need to take actions such as reducing CO2emissions to the atmosphere.

  19. How will climate change modify river flow regimes in Europe?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Schneider

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Worldwide, flow regimes are being modified by various anthropogenic impacts and climate change induces an additional risk. Rising temperatures, declining snow cover and changing precipitation patterns will interact differently at different locations. Consequently, in distinct climate zones, unequal consequences can be expected in matters of water stress, flood risk, water quality, and food security. In particular, river ecosystems and their vital ecosystem services will be compromised as their species richness and composition have evolved over long time under natural flow conditions. This study aims at evaluating the exclusive impacts of climate change on river flow regimes in Europe. Various flow characteristics are taken into consideration and diverse dynamics are identified for each distinct climate zone in Europe. In order to simulate present-day natural flow regimes and future flow regimes under climate change, the global hydrology model WaterGAP3 is applied. All calculations for current and future conditions (2050s are carried out on a 5' × 5' European grid. To address uncertainty, bias-corrected climate forcing data of three different global climate models are used to drive WaterGAP3. Finally, the hydrological alterations of different flow characteristics are quantified by the Indicators of Hydrological Alteration approach. Results of our analysis indicate that on the European scale, climate change can be expected to modify flow regimes remarkably. This is especially the case in the Mediterranean (due to drier conditions with reduced precipitation across the year and in the boreal climate zone (due to reduced snowmelt, increased precipitation, and strong temperature rises. In the temperate climate zone, impacts increase from oceanic to continental. Regarding single flow characteristics, strongest impacts on timing were found for the boreal climate zone. This applies for both high and low flows. Flow magnitudes, in turn, will be

  20. Climate Change: Integrating Science and Economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prinn, R. G.

    2008-12-01

    The world is facing an ever-growing conflict between environment and development. Climate change is a century-scale threat requiring a century-long effort in science, technology and policy analysis, and institutions that can sustain this effort over generations. To inform policy development and implementation there is urgent need for better integration of the diverse components of the problem. Motivated by this challenge, we have developed the Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) at MIT. It comprises coupled sub- models of economic development, atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics and ecosystems. The results of a recent uncertainty analysis involving hundreds of runs of the IGSM imply that, without mitigation policies, the global average surface temperature may rise much faster than previously estimated. Polar temperatures are projected to rise even faster than the average rate with obvious great risks for high latitude ecosystems and ice sheets at the high end of this range. Analysis of policies for climate mitigation, show that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes as opposed to lowering the medians. Faced with the above estimated impacts, the long lifetimes of most greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the long delay in ultimate warming due to ocean heat uptake, and the capital-intensive global energy infrastructure, the case is strong for concerted action now. Results of runs of the IGSM indicate the need for transformation of the global energy industry on a very large scale to mitigate climate change. Carbon sequestration, renewable energy sources, and nuclear present new economic, technological, and environmental challenges when implemented at the needed scales. Economic analyses using the IGSM indicate that global implementation of efficient policies could allow the needed transformations at bearable costs.

  1. Vulnerability of European freshwater catchments to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markovic, Danijela; Carrizo, Savrina F; Kärcher, Oskar; Walz, Ariane; David, Jonathan N W

    2017-02-10

    Climate change is expected to exacerbate the current threats to freshwater ecosystems, yet multifaceted studies on the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity at scales that inform management planning are lacking. The aim of this study was to fill this void through the development of a novel framework for assessing climate change vulnerability tailored to freshwater ecosystems. The three dimensions of climate change vulnerability are as follows: (i) exposure to climate change, (ii) sensitivity to altered environmental conditions and (iii) resilience potential. Our vulnerability framework includes 1685 freshwater species of plants, fishes, molluscs, odonates, amphibians, crayfish and turtles alongside key features within and between catchments, such as topography and connectivity. Several methodologies were used to combine these dimensions across a variety of future climate change models and scenarios. The resulting indices were overlaid to assess the vulnerability of European freshwater ecosystems at the catchment scale (18 783 catchments). The Balkan Lakes Ohrid and Prespa and Mediterranean islands emerge as most vulnerable to climate change. For the 2030s, we showed a consensus among the applied methods whereby up to 573 lake and river catchments are highly vulnerable to climate change. The anthropogenic disruption of hydrological habitat connectivity by dams is the major factor reducing climate change resilience. A gap analysis demonstrated that the current European protected area network covers climate change. Priority should be placed on enhancing stakeholder cooperation at the major basin scale towards preventing further degradation of freshwater ecosystems and maintaining connectivity among catchments. The catchments identified as most vulnerable to climate change provide preliminary targets for development of climate change conservation management and mitigation strategies.

  2. Climate change threatens European conservation areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Miguel B; Alagador, Diogo; Cabeza, Mar; Nogués-Bravo, David; Thuiller, Wilfried

    2011-01-01

    Europe has the world's most extensive network of conservation areas. Conservation areas are selected without taking into account the effects of climate change. How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change? We assess the effectiveness of protected areas and the Natura 2000 network in conserving a large proportion of European plant and terrestrial vertebrate species under climate change. We found that by 2080, 58 ± 2.6% of the species would lose suitable climate in protected areas, whereas losses affected 63 ± 2.1% of the species of European concern occurring in Natura 2000 areas. Protected areas are expected to retain climatic suitability for species better than unprotected areas (P<0.001), but Natura 2000 areas retain climate suitability for species no better and sometimes less effectively than unprotected areas. The risk is high that ongoing efforts to conserve Europe's biodiversity are jeopardized by climate change. New policies are required to avert this risk. PMID:21447141

  3. India's National Action Plan on Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandve, Harshal T

    2009-04-01

    Climate change is one of the most critical global challenges of our times. Recent events have emphatically demonstrated our growing vulnerability to climate change. Climate change impacts will range from affecting agriculture - further endangering food security - to sea-level rise and the accelerated erosion of coastal zones, increasing intensity of natural disasters, species extinction, and the spread of vector-borne diseases. India released its much-awaited National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) to mitigate and adapt to climate change on June 30, 2008, almost a year after it was announced. The NAPCC runs through 2017 and directs ministries to submit detailed implementation plans to the Prime Minister's Council on Climate Change by December 2008. This article briefly reviews the plan and opinion about it from different experts and organizations.

  4. Climate Change and the Social Factor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Lars Kjerulf; Jensen, Anne; Nielsen, Signe Svalgaard

    risks and concerns of everyday life? The project found that the distinction between climate change mitigation and adaptation is of little significance for lay people. The prospect of climate change does provoke reflections on social values and the need for saving energy, but when it comes to protecting......This poster reports from a explorative study about social aspects of climate change adaptation in Denmark. The aim of the project was to explore how people perceive and relate to climate change adaptation, what risks are associated with climate change and how are those risks balanced with other...... ones own life and property against future damaging effects of climate change the threat seems distant and other forms of home improvement seem more relevant. People have a high level of trust in socio-technical systems and feel that adaptation measures primarily should be taken by the authorities....

  5. Climate Change, Health, and Communication: A Primer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadwick, Amy E

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most serious and pervasive challenges facing us today. Our changing climate has implications not only for the ecosystems upon which we depend, but also for human health. Health communication scholars are well-positioned to aid in the mitigation of and response to climate change and its health effects. To help theorists, researchers, and practitioners engage in these efforts, this primer explains relevant issues and vocabulary associated with climate change and its impacts on health. First, this primer provides an overview of climate change, its causes and consequences, and its impacts on health. Then, the primer describes ways to decrease impacts and identifies roles for health communication scholars in efforts to address climate change and its health effects.

  6. Global climate change and international security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  7. Urban Vulnerability and Climate Change in Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Gertrud

    Urbanisation and climate change are among the major challenges for sustainable development in Africa. The overall aim of this book is to present innovative approaches to vulnerability analysis and for enhancing the resilience of African cities against climate change-induced risks. Locally adapted...... IPCC climate change scenarios, which also consider possible changes in urban population, have been developed. Innovative strategies to land use and spatial planning are proposed that seek synergies between the adaptation to climate change and the need to solve social problems. Furthermore, the book...... explores the role of governance in successfully coping with climate-induced risks in urban areas. The book is unique in that it combines: a top-down perspective of climate change modeling with a bottom-up perspective of vulnerability assessment; quantitative approaches from engineering sciences...

  8. A Survey of the Relationship between Climatic Heat Stress Indices and Fundamental Milk Components Considering Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Reza Marami Milani

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this study is to assess the relationship between four bioclimatic indices for cattle (environmental stress, heat load, modified heat load, and respiratory rate predictor indices and three main milk components (fat, protein, and milk yield considering uncertainty. The climate parameters used to calculate the climate indices were taken from the NASA-Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA reanalysis from 2002 to 2010. Cow milk data were considered for the same period from April to September when the cows use the natural pasture. The study is based on a linear regression analysis using correlations as a summarizing diagnostic. Bootstrapping is used to represent uncertainty information in the confidence intervals. The main results identify an interesting relationship between the milk compounds and climate indices under all climate conditions. During spring, there are reasonably high correlations between the fat and protein concentrations vs. the climate indices, whereas there are insignificant dependencies between the milk yield and climate indices. During summer, the correlation between the fat and protein concentrations with the climate indices decreased in comparison with the spring results, whereas the correlation for the milk yield increased. This methodology is suggested for studies investigating the impacts of climate variability/change on food and agriculture using short term data considering uncertainty.

  9. Modeling climate change impacts on water trading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Bin; Maqsood, Imran; Gong, Yazhen

    2010-04-01

    This paper presents a new method of evaluating the impacts of climate change on the long-term performance of water trading programs, through designing an indicator to measure the mean of periodic water volume that can be released by trading through a water-use system. The indicator is computed with a stochastic optimization model which can reflect the random uncertainty of water availability. The developed method was demonstrated in the Swift Current Creek watershed of Prairie Canada under two future scenarios simulated by a Canadian Regional Climate Model, in which total water availabilities under future scenarios were estimated using a monthly water balance model. Frequency analysis was performed to obtain the best probability distributions for both observed and simulated water quantity data. Results from the case study indicate that the performance of a trading system is highly scenario-dependent in future climate, with trading effectiveness highly optimistic or undesirable under different future scenarios. Trading effectiveness also largely depends on trading costs, with high costs resulting in failure of the trading program.

  10. How Can We Avert Dangerous Climate Change?

    CERN Document Server

    Hansen, J

    2007-01-01

    Recent analyses indicate that the amount of atmospheric CO2 required to cause dangerous climate change is at most 450 ppm, and likely less than that. Reductions of non-CO2 climate forcings can provide only moderate, albeit important, adjustments to the CO2 limit. Realization of how close the planet is to "tipping points" with unacceptable consequences, especially ice sheet disintegration with sea level rise out of humanity's control, has a bright side. It implies an imperative: we must find a way to keep the CO2 amount so low that it will also avert other detrimental effects that had begun to seem inevitable, e.g., ocean acidification, loss of most alpine glaciers and thus the water supply for millions of people, and shifting of climatic zones with consequent extermination of species. Here I outline from a scientific perspective actions needed to achieve low limits on CO2 and global warming. These changes are technically feasible and have ancillary benefits. Achievement of needed changes requires overcoming t...

  11. Global Climate Change and Ocean Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spitzer, W.; Anderson, J.

    2011-12-01

    The New England Aquarium, collaborating with other aquariums across the country, is leading a national effort to enable aquariums and related informal science education institutions to effectively communicate the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on marine animals, habitats and ecosystems. Our goal is to build on visitors' emotional connection with ocean animals, connect to their deeply held values, help them understand causes and effects of climate change and motivate them to embrace effective solutions. Our objectives are to: (1) Build a national coalition of aquariums and related informal education institutions collaborating on climate change education; (2) Develop an interpretive framework for climate change and the ocean that is scientifically sound, research-based, field tested and evaluated; and (3) Build capacity of aquariums to interpret climate change via training for interpreters, interactive exhibits and activities and communities of practice for ongoing support. Centers of informal learning have the potential to bring important environmental issues to the public by presenting the facts, explaining the science, connecting with existing values and interests, and motivating concern and action. Centers that work with live animals (including aquariums, zoos, nature centers, national parks, national marine sanctuaries, etc.) are unique in that they attract large numbers of people of all ages (over 140 million in the US), have strong connections to the natural, and engage many visitors who may not come with a primary interest in science. Recent research indicates that that the public expects and trusts aquariums, zoos, and museums to communicate solutions to environmental and ocean issues, and to advance ocean conservation, and that climate change is the environmental issue of most concern to the public; Ironically, however, most people do not associate climate change with ocean health, or understand the critical role that the ocean plays in

  12. Climate change, food, water and population health in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Shilu; Berry, Helen L; Ebi, Kristie; Bambrick, Hilary; Hu, Wenbiao; Green, Donna; Hanna, Elizabeth; Wang, Zhiqiang; Butler, Colin D

    2016-10-01

    Anthropogenic climate change appears to be increasing the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather events. Such events have already had substantial impacts on socioeconomic development and population health. Climate change's most profound impacts are likely to be on food, health systems and water. This paper explores how climate change will affect food, human health and water in China. Projections indicate that the overall effects of climate change, land conversion and reduced water availability could reduce Chinese food production substantially - although uncertainty is inevitable in such projections. Climate change will probably have substantial impacts on water resources - e.g. changes in rainfall patterns and increases in the frequencies of droughts and floods in some areas of China. Such impacts would undoubtedly threaten population health and well-being in many communities. In the short-term, population health in China is likely to be adversely affected by increases in air temperatures and pollution. In the medium to long term, however, the indirect impacts of climate change - e.g. changes in the availability of food, shelter and water, decreased mental health and well-being and changes in the distribution and seasonality of infectious diseases - are likely to grow in importance. The potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change can only be avoided if all countries work together towards a substantial reduction in the emission of so-called greenhouse gases and a substantial increase in the global population's resilience to the risks of climate variability and change.

  13. Climate variability and climate change in Mexico: A review

    OpenAIRE

    Jáuregui, E.

    1997-01-01

    A review of research on climate variability, fluctuations and climate change in Mexico is presented. Earlier approaches include different time scales from paleoclimatic to historical and instrumental. The nature and causes of variability in Mexico have been attributed to large-scale southward/northward shifts of the mid-latitude major circulation and more recently to the ENSO cycle. Global greenhouse warming has become a major environmental issue and has spawned a large number of climate-chan...

  14. Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Workshop summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhatti, N.; Cirillo, R.R. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Dixon, R.K. [U.S. Country Studies Program, Washington, DC (United States)] [and others

    1995-12-31

    Representatives from fifteen countries met in Prague, Czech Republic, on September 11-15, 1995, to share results from the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change. The workshop focused on the issues of global climate change and its impacts on various sectors of a national economy. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which has been signed by more than 150 governments worldwide, calls on signatory parties to develop and communicate measures they are implementing to respond to global climate change. An analysis of a country`s vulnerability to changes in the climate helps it identify suitable adaptation measures. These analyses are designed to determine the extent of the impacts of global climate change on sensitive sectors such as agricultural crops, forests, grasslands and livestock, water resources, and coastal areas. Once it is determined how vulnerable a country may be to climate change, it is possible to identify adaptation measures for ameliorating some or all of the effects.The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: Provide an opportunity for countries to describe their study results; Encourage countries to learn from the experience of the more complete assessments and adjust their studies accordingly; Identify issues and analyses that require further investigation; and Summarize results and experiences for governmental and intergovernmental organizations.

  15. Coastal Risk Management in a Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Existing coastal management and defense approaches are not well suited to meet the challenges of climate change and related uncertanities. Professionals in this field need a more dynamic, systematic and multidisciplinary approach. Written by an international group of experts, "Coastal Risk...... Management in a Changing Climate" provides innovative, multidisciplinary best practices for mitigating the effects of climate change on coastal structures. Based on the Theseus program, the book includes eight study sites across Europe, with specific attention to the most vulnerable coastal environments...

  16. Global Climate Change: Threat Multiplier for AFRICOM?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-11-06

    Vaclav Klaus , President of the Czech Republic, as quoted in Notes for the speech of the President of the Czech Republic at the UN Climate Change...63 Vaclav Klaus , UN Climate Change Conference, 2. 64 Ibid., 1. 65 Aaron T. Wolf, and Annika Kramer, and Alexander...2007). Klaus , Vaclav , President of the Czech Republic. Notes for the Speech of the President of the Czech Republic at the UN Climate Change

  17. Using Web GIS "Climate" for Adaptation to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordova, Yulia; Martynova, Yulia; Shulgina, Tamara

    2015-04-01

    A work is devoted to the application of an information-computational Web GIS "Climate" developed by joint team of the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS and Tomsk State University to raise awareness about current and future climate change as a basis for further adaptation. Web-GIS "Climate» (http://climate.scert.ru/) based on modern concepts of Web 2.0 provides opportunities to study regional climate change and its consequences by providing access to climate and weather models, a large set of geophysical data and means of processing and visualization. Also, the system is used for the joint development of software applications by distributed research teams, research based on these applications and undergraduate and graduate students training. In addition, the system capabilities allow creating information resources to raise public awareness about climate change, its causes and consequences, which is a necessary step for the subsequent adaptation to these changes. Basic information course on climate change is placed in the public domain and is aimed at local population. Basic concepts and problems of modern climate change and its possible consequences are set out and illustrated in accessible language. Particular attention is paid to regional climate changes. In addition to the information part, the course also includes a selection of links to popular science network resources on current issues in Earth Sciences and a number of practical tasks to consolidate the material. These tasks are performed for a particular territory. Within the tasks users need to analyze the prepared within the "Climate" map layers and answer questions of direct interest to the public: "How did the minimum value of winter temperatures change in your area?", "What are the dynamics of maximum summer temperatures?", etc. Carrying out the analysis of the dynamics of climate change contributes to a better understanding of climate processes and further adaptation

  18. Fostering Hope in Climate Change Educators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swim, Janet K.; Fraser, John

    2013-01-01

    Climate Change is a complex set of issues with large social and ecological risks. Addressing it requires an attentive and climate literate population capable of making informed decisions. Informal science educators are well-positioned to teach climate science and motivate engagement, but many have resisted the topic because of self-doubt about…

  19. The 2008 California climate change assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, G.

    2008-12-01

    In 2005, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger signed Executive Order S-03-05, which laid the foundation for California's ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation reduction efforts. The 2020 goal is now codified in state law requiring bringing 2020 emissions to the 1990 levels. The Executive Order also mandates the preparation of biennial updates on the latest climate change science, potential impacts, and assessment of the state's efforts to manage its climate change risks through various adaptation options. In 2006, the first of these mandated scientific assessments (The Governor's Scenarios Report) was released. Based on new scientific studies conducted in the interim, the next assessment, the '2008 Governor's Scenarios Report' is currently in preparation. It has three principal goals: (1) to improve the assessment of climate changes for California and associated impacts on key physical and biological indicators; (2) to begin to translate these physical and biological impacts into sectoral economic impacts; and (3) to begin to develop and evaluate strategies for key sectors or regions for adapting to climate changes already underway. Contributors to this session will present some of this new research to the scientific community. Among the most exciting new insights are impacts assessments for the all-important water and agricultural sectors, coastal areas, public health and related air quality and environmental justice issues, the forestry and energy sectors. This presentation will give an overview of the overall effort which will result in about 35 scientific papers from different research institutions in California. All of the studies are interlinked in such a way as to produce a consistent overall assessment.

  20. Gender angle to the climate change negotiations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wamukonya, Njeri; Skutsch, Margaret

    2002-01-01

    The South is likely to suffer more from climate change than the North due to its already vulnerable situation and lack of the necessary resources to adapt to change. But do the interests of men and of women differ as regards climate change and does this have a South-North dimension? This paper attem

  1. How will climate change modify river flow regimes in Europe?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Schneider

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Worldwide, flow regimes are being modified by various anthropogenic impacts and climate change induces an additional risk. Rising evapotranspiration rates, declining snow cover and changing precipitation patterns will interact differently at different locations. Consequently, in distinct climate zones, unequal consequences can be expected in matters of water stress, flood risk, water quality, and food security. In particular, river ecosystems and their vital ecosystem services will be compromised as their species richness and composition have evolved over long time under natural flow conditions. This study aims at evaluating the exclusive impacts of climate change on river flow regimes in Europe. Various flow characteristics are taken into consideration and diverse dynamics are identified for each distinct climate zone in Europe. In order to simulate natural and modified flow regimes, the global hydrology model WaterGAP3 is applied. All calculations for current and future conditions (2050s are carried out on a 5' × 5' European grid. To address uncertainty, climate forcing data of three different global climate models are used to drive WaterGAP3. Finally, the hydrological alterations of different flow characteristics are quantified by the Indicators of Hydrological Alteration approach. Results of our analysis indicate that on European scale, climate change can be expected to modify flow regimes significantly. This is especially the case in the Mediterranean climate zone (due to drier conditions with reduced precipitation across the year and in the continental climate zone (due to reduced snowmelt and drier summers. Regarding single flow characteristics, strongest impacts on timing were found for the boreal climate zone. This applies for both, high and low flows. While low flow magnitudes are likely to be stronger influenced in the Mediterranean climate, high flow magnitudes will be mainly altered in snow climates with warmer summers. At the end

  2. Incorporating Student Activities into Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, H.; Kelly, K.; Klein, D.; Cadavid, A. C.

    2013-12-01

    Under a NASA grant, Mathematical and Geospatial Pathways to Climate Change Education, students at California State University, Northridge integrated Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, satellite data technologies, and climate modelling into the study of global climate change under a Pathway for studying the Mathematics of Climate Change (PMCC). The PMCC, which is an interdisciplinary option within the BS in Applied Mathematical Sciences, consists of courses offered by the departments of Mathematics, Physics, and Geography and is designed to prepare students for careers and Ph.D. programs in technical fields relevant to global climate change. Under this option students are exposed to the science, mathematics, and applications of climate change science through a variety of methods including hands-on experience with computer modeling and image processing software. In the Geography component of the program, ESRI's ArcGIS and ERDAS Imagine mapping, spatial analysis and image processing software were used to explore NASA satellite data to examine the earth's atmosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere in areas that are affected by climate change or affect climate. These technology tools were incorporated into climate change and remote sensing courses to enhance students' knowledge and understanding of climate change through hands-on application of image processing techniques to NASA data. Several sets of exercises were developed with specific learning objectives in mind. These were (1) to increase student understanding of climate change and climate change processes; (2) to develop student skills in understanding, downloading and processing satellite data; (3) to teach remote sensing technology and GIS through applications to climate change; (4) to expose students to climate data and methods they can apply to solve real world problems and incorporate in future research projects. In the Math and Physics components of the course, students learned about

  3. Attribution of glacier fluctuations to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oerlemans, J.

    2012-04-01

    Glacier retreat is a worlwide phenomenon, which started around the middle of the 19th century. During the period 1800-1850 the number of retreating and advancing glaciers was roughly equal (based on 42 records from different continents). During the period 1850-1900 about 92% of all mountain glaciers became shorter (based on 65 records). After this, the percentage of shrinking glaciers has been around 90% until the present time. The glacier signal is rather coherent over the globe, especially when surging and calving glaciers are not considered (for such glaciers the response to climate change is often masked by length changes related to internal dynamics). From theoretical studies as well as extensive meteorological work on glaciers, the processes that control the response of glaciers to climate change are now basically understood. It is useful to make a difference between geometric factors (e.g. slope, altitudinal range, hypsometry) and climatic setting (e.g. seasonal cycle, precipitation). The most sensitive glaciers appear to be flat glaciers in a maritime climate. Characterizing the dynamic properties of a glacier requires at least two quantities: the climate sensitivity, expressing how the equilibrium glacier state depends on the climatic conditions, and the response time, indicating how fast a glacier approaches a new equilibrium state after a stepwise change in the climatic forcing. These quantities can be estimated from relatively simple theory, showing that differences among glaciers are substantial. For larger glaciers, climate sensitivities (in terms of glacier length) vary from 1 to 8 km per 100 m change in the equilibrium-line altitude. Response times are mainly in the range of 20 to 200 years, with most values between 30 and 80 years. Changes in the equilibrium-line altitude or net mass balance of a glacier are mainly driven by fluctuations in air temperature, precipitation, and global radiation. Energy-balance modelling for many glaciers shows that

  4. When climate science became climate politics: British media representations of climate change in 1988.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaspal, Rusi; Nerlich, Brigitte

    2014-02-01

    Climate change has become a pressing environmental concern for scientists, social commentators and politicians. Previous social science research has explored media representations of climate change in various temporal and geographical contexts. Through the lens of Social Representations Theory, this article provides a detailed qualitative thematic analysis of media representations of climate change in the 1988 British broadsheet press, given that this year constitutes an important juncture in this transition of climate change from the domain of science to that of the socio-political sphere. The following themes are outlined: (i) "Climate change: a multi-faceted threat"; (ii) "Collectivisation of threat"; (iii) "Climate change and the attribution of blame"; and (iv) "Speculative solutions to a complex socio-environmental problem." The article provides detailed empirical insights into the "starting-point" for present-day disputes concerning climate change and lays the theoretical foundations for tracking the continuities and discontinuities characterising social representations of climate change in the future.

  5. Climate Change and Water in Vulnerable Agriculture: Impacts - Mitigation - Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalezios, Nicolas; Tarquis, Ana Maria

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture highly depends on climate and is adversely affected by climate extremes caused mainly by anthropogenic climate change and increasing climate variability. Moreover, agricultural production risks and vulnerability of agriculture may become an issue in several regions around the world, since they are likely to increase the incidence of crop failure. The aim of this paper is to present the water availability and requirements in Southern Europe and specifically in the Mediterranean region, which is characterized by vulnerable agriculture. Indeed, the climatic trend in the 21st century for this region indicates temperature increase, precipitation decrease combined with an increase in the frequency of climate extremes, such as droughts, heat waves and forest fires. The three major components of climate change are examined, namely impacts, mitigation and adaptation. In particular, precipitation frequency analysis has already indicated a reduction in the precipitation amounts and a shift towards more intense rainstorms. Moreover, time series of drought indices are presented in affected areas. The importance of climate change mitigation measures is also highlighted. Finally, an adaptation scheme for agriculture from climate change in vulnerable and water scarce areas is presented.

  6. Climate change and shareholder value

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-03-16

    During 2005, the Carbon Trust worked with Cairneagle Associates to develop a methodology for analysing shareholder value at risk from climate change. The model developed offers a robust, replicable, top-down approach to analysing such value at risk. In addition to a company's own energy linked ('direct' and electricity linked 'indirect') carbon emissions, it looks further along the value chain and considers broader potential risk. In calculating the financial impact, the analysis quantifies the potential impact on profits, using the shape of the business in 2004, but applying a potential 2013 emissions regulatory regime. 2013 was chosen as the first year after the end of the 2008-2012 Kyoto compliance period (which also equates to Phase Two in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme). A major uncertainty is to what extent countries not currently regulated by the Kyoto Protocol (particularly the USA, India and China) will be brought into committed emission reduction targets from 2013. 2013 therefore represents the earliest year under this uncertain, but likely tougher, regulatory regime. However, although this report focuses on 2013, it needs to be recognised that, for many sectors, financial impacts will be seen significantly before this time. Ten 'case study companies' have been studied, from a range of sectors. In some cases, the 'case study company' analysed is strictly linked to a single company within that sector. In others, just a single corporate division has been reviewed, and in others yet again, characteristics from several companies have been combined to produce a more representative example. In order to enable analysis on a strictly like-for-like basis, the research has been based entirely upon public sources of information. This analysis illustrates what a determined shareholder (or other onlooker) could derive about value at risk from climate change, based upon what companies disclose today. A summary of the

  7. Forced migrations caused by climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neven Tandarić

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The consequences of climate change are becoming more and more pronounced, causing various environmental and social changes. One of the major and globally most noticeable changes is the intensification of forced migration caused by climate change. Such forced migrants, due to international legislation that has no built-in criteria to regulate the status of refugees due to environmental reasons and also climate change, cannot achieve this status and are becoming a problem of the entire international community, leading to significant social, economic, political and cultural changes at a global scale.

  8. Salt Marshes as Potential Indicatore of Global Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, Daehyun; Cairens, David; Jung, S.H.;

    2011-01-01

    Coastal scientists postulate that salt marshes are significantly affected by dynamics of global climate. However, few studies have explicitly proposed a perspective that regards salt marshes as potential indicators of climate change. This review article evaluates the possibility of salt marshes a...

  9. Implications of spatial scale on climate change assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pingale Santosh

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available While assessing the effects of climate change at global or regional scales, local factors responsible for climate change are generalized, which results in the averaging of effects. However, climate change assessment is required at a micro-scale to determine the severity of climate change. To ascertain the impact of spatial scales on climate change assessments, trends and shifts in annual and seasonal (monsoon and non-monsoon, rainfall and temperature (minimum, average and maximum were determined at three different spatial resolutions in India (Ajmer city, Ajmer District and Rajasthan State. The Mann–Kendall (MK, MK test with pre-whitening of series (MK–PW, and Modified Mann–Kendall (MMK test, along with other statistical techniques were used for the trend analysis. The Pettitt–Mann–Whitney (PMW test was applied to detect the temporal shift in climatic parameters. The Sen’s slope and % change in rainfall and temperature were also estimated over the study period (35 years. The annual and seasonal average temperature indicates significant warming trends, when assessed at a fine spatial resolution (Ajmer city compared to a coarser spatial resolution (Ajmer District and Rajasthan State resolutions. Increasing trend was observed in minimum, mean and maximum temperature at all spatial scales; however, trends were more pronounced at a finer spatial resolution (Ajmer city. The PMW test indicates only the significant shift in non-monsoon season rainfall, which shows an increase in rainfall after 1995 in Ajmer city. The Kurtosis and coefficient of variation also revealed significant climate change, when assessed at a finer spatial resolution (Ajmer city compared to a coarser resolution. This shows the contribution of land use/land cover change and several other local anthropogenic activities on climate change. The results of this study can be useful for the identification of optimum climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies based on

  10. Undocumented migration in response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nawrotzki, Raphael J; Riosmena, Fernando; Hunter, Lori M; Runfola, Daniel M

    In the face of climate change induced economic uncertainty, households may employ migration as an adaptation strategy to diversify their livelihood portfolio through remittances. However, it is unclear whether such climate migration will be documented or undocumented. In this study we combine detailed migration histories with daily temperature and precipitation information for 214 weather stations to investigate whether climate change more strongly impacts undocumented or documented migration from 68 rural Mexican municipalities to the U.S. during the years 1986-1999. We employ two measures of climate change, the warm spell duration index (WSDI) and the precipitation during extremely wet days (R99PTOT). Results from multi-level event-history models demonstrate that climate-related international migration from rural Mexico was predominantly undocumented. We conclude that programs to facilitate climate change adaptation in rural Mexico may be more effective in reducing undocumented border crossings than increased border fortification.

  11. Exposure to climate and climate change in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Monterroso

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available An index with the potential to integrate different climate hazards into a single parameter is required to guide preventive decision making. We integrated in a single index the degree of exposure to climate that the nation's municipalities have. We selected this spatial scale because the municipality is the basic unit of administrative and economic planning; consequently, this is the scale at which policies of adaptation to climate change must be fostered. We conceptualized exposure as the sum of historic extreme events, the degree of ecosystem conservation and current climate and its future scenarios. This approach allowed us to create a climate hazard exposure index at the municipality scale integrating past and present. Maps of this index can be constructed to serve as a medium of risk communication and to aid policy design. We used information from eighteen variables to statistically standardize and compute the hazard exposure index by applying empirical formulae. We found that actually, out of ten Mexicans, three live in flood-prone zones, three may suffer the passage of tropical cyclones, five reside in drought zones and two live in extreme drought regions. Additionally, hailstorms affect five out of ten Mexicans, while eight out of ten are affected by frosts. Incorporating climate change, in the future more municipalities and a higher population will live in high exposure. Because understanding exposure is a necessary prerequisite to understanding vulnerability, knowledge of the spatial distribution of exposure should be useful for reducing the identified climate hazard exposure and vulnerability to climate change.

  12. Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuur, E.A.G.; McGuire, Anthony; Schädel, C.; Grosse, G.; Harden, J.W.; Hayes, D.J.; Hugelius, G.; Koven, C.D.; Kuhry, P.; Lawrence, D.M.; Natali, Susan M.; Olefeldt, David; Romanovsky, V.E.; Schaefer, K.; Turetsky, M.R.; Treat, C.C.; Vonk, J.E.

    2015-01-01

    Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.

  13. Drought forecasting in Luanhe River basin involving climatic indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Weinan; Wang, Yixuan; Li, Jianzhu; Feng, Ping; Smith, Ronald J.

    2016-09-01

    Drought is regarded as one of the most severe natural disasters globally. This is especially the case in Tianjin City, Northern China, where drought can affect economic development and people's livelihoods. Drought forecasting, the basis of drought management, is an important mitigation strategy. In this paper, we evolve a probabilistic forecasting model, which forecasts transition probabilities from a current Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) value to a future SPI class, based on conditional distribution of multivariate normal distribution to involve two large-scale climatic indices at the same time, and apply the forecasting model to 26 rain gauges in the Luanhe River basin in North China. The establishment of the model and the derivation of the SPI are based on the hypothesis of aggregated monthly precipitation that is normally distributed. Pearson correlation and Shapiro-Wilk normality tests are used to select appropriate SPI time scale and large-scale climatic indices. Findings indicated that longer-term aggregated monthly precipitation, in general, was more likely to be considered normally distributed and forecasting models should be applied to each gauge, respectively, rather than to the whole basin. Taking Liying Gauge as an example, we illustrate the impact of the SPI time scale and lead time on transition probabilities. Then, the controlled climatic indices of every gauge are selected by Pearson correlation test and the multivariate normality of SPI, corresponding climatic indices for current month and SPI 1, 2, and 3 months later are demonstrated using Shapiro-Wilk normality test. Subsequently, we illustrate the impact of large-scale oceanic-atmospheric circulation patterns on transition probabilities. Finally, we use a score method to evaluate and compare the performance of the three forecasting models and compare them with two traditional models which forecast transition probabilities from a current to a future SPI class. The results show that the

  14. EU Climate Change Exhibition Held

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    <正>On April 25, the CPAFFC, the China-EU Association (CEUA) and the Delegation of the European Commission to China jointly held the opening ceremony for the EU Exhibition on Climate Change in the CPAFFC. He Luli, former vice chairperson of the NPC Standing Committee and honorary president of the CEUA, Jose Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, and Li Jianping, vice president of the CPAFFC, attended the opening ceremony and made speeches. Honorary President He Luli highly praised the achievements made by China and the EU in their longtime cooperation of mutual benefits in various fields including environmental protection. She said, for many years China and EU have both committed to the development of all-round strategic partnership and establishment of a multi-level mechanism of political dialogue. She expressed, with increasing enthusiasm the CEUA would continue to actively carry out nongovernmental exchanges between China and the EU, and promote cooperation between the two sides in the fields of economy, society, environmental protection, science and technology, culture, etc.

  15. Climate Change: Science and Policy Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-01-25

    species may become extinct , while others are likely to flourish. The local effects of climate change may contribute more to decision-making than national...in some climate model projections is the possibility of dieback of the Amazon rainforest , resulting in a self-reinforcing cycle of greater drying and...ecologists expect high rates of extinctions and loss of biological diversity if climate change projections are accurate. CRS-37 94 Tol, R.S.J., “New

  16. Undocumented migration in response to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Nawrotzki, Raphael J.; Riosmena, Fernando; HUNTER, LORI M.; Runfola, Daniel M.

    2015-01-01

    In the face of climate change induced economic uncertainty, households may employ migration as an adaptation strategy to diversify their livelihood portfolio through remittances. However, it is unclear whether such climate migration will be documented or undocumented. In this study we combine detailed migration histories with daily temperature and precipitation information for 214 weather stations to investigate whether climate change more strongly impacts undocumented or documented migration...

  17. Global climate change and US agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Richard M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Peart, Robert M.; Ritchie, Joe T.; Mccarl, Bruce A.

    1990-01-01

    Agricultural productivity is expected to be sensitive to global climate change. Models from atmospheric science, plant science, and agricultural economics are linked to explore this sensitivity. Although the results depend on the severity of climate change and the compensating effects of carbon dioxide on crop yields, the simulation suggests that irrigated acreage will expand and regional patterns of U.S. agriculture will shift. The impact of the U.S. economy strongly depends on which climate model is used.

  18. Study on climate change in Southwestern China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Zongxing

    2015-03-01

    Nominated by Chinese Academy of Sciences as an outstanding Ph.D. thesis. Offers a needed exploration of the temporal and spatial pattern of climate change in southwestern China. Explores the action mechanism among the large-scale atmospheric circulation system, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. Analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change from the aspects of morphology of the glacier, glacial mass balance and the process of hydrology. This thesis confirms many changes, including sharp temperature rise, interannual variability of precipitation, extreme climate events and significant decreases of sunshine duration and wind speed in southwestern China, and systemically explores the action mechanism between large-scale atmospheric circulation systems, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. This study also analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change so that on the one hand it clearly reflects the relationship between glacier morphologic changes and climate change; on the other, it reveals the mechanism of action of climate warming as a balance between energy and matter. The achievements of this study reflect a significant contribution to the body of research on the response of climate in cold regions, glaciers and human activities to a global change against the background of the typical monsoon climate, and have provided scientific basis for predictions, countermeasures against disasters from extreme weather, utilization of water and the establishment of counterplans to slow and adapt to climate change. Zongxing Li works at the Cold and Arid Region Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China.

  19. Climate changes instead of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radovanović Milan M.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Air temperature changes on Earth in recent years are the subject of numerous and increasingly interdisciplinary research. In contrast to, conditionally speaking, generally accepted views that these changes are conditioned primarily by anthropogenic activity, more results appear to suggest that it is dominant natural processes about. Whether because of the proven existence of areas in which downtrends are registered or the stagnation of air temperature, as opposed to areas where the increase is determined, in scientific papers, as well as the media, the increasingly present is the use of the term climate changes instead of the global warming. In this paper, we shall try to present arguments for the debate relating to the official view of the IPCC, as well as research indicating the opposite view.

  20. Physical Controls of the Earth's Climate and Climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Graeme

    2013-03-01

    The Earth's climate system and changes to it are determined by the physical processes that govern the flows of energy to and from the atmosphere and Earth's surface. Although the energy exchanges at the top of the atmosphere are well determined from available satellite measurements, the global character of the energy flows within the climate system, and to and from the Earth's surface in particular, are not directly measured and thus are much more uncertain. The surface energy balance is particularly important since geographical variations of its distribution drives ocean circulations, dictates the amount of water evaporated from the Earth's surface, fuels the planetary hydrological cycle and ultimately controls how this hydrological cycle responds to forced climate change. This talk reviews our state of understanding of the physical processes that determine the energy balance, couple to the Earth's water cycle and are responsible for the most important climate feedbacks that dictate the pace of climate change. Challenges in understanding the mechanisms responsible for feedbacks associated with clouds and precipitation, water vapor, snow cover and carbon will be highlighted. The further complexity and uncertainty that aerosols add to the cloud and precipitation feedbacks will also be reviewed. The effects of uncertainties in our understanding of the physical climate system, and feedbacks within it, will be reviewed in the context of climate change projections.

  1. Linkages between development and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Halsnaes, K. [UNEP, Roskilde (Denmark); Verhagen, J. [Plant Res. International, Wageningen (Netherlands); Rovere, E. La [Centro Clima. Centre for Integrated Studies on Climate Change and Environment, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Klein, R. [Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impacts Res., PIK, Potsdam (DE); Huq, S. [International Inst. for Environment and Development, IIED, London (United Kingdom)

    2003-11-01

    This paper aims at assessing how the development and climate change literature has considered potential linkages and synergies between general development policies and climate change adaptation and mitigation policies. The starting point for this review is to give an overview of how alternative economic development paradigms can be used as a background for understanding and assessing development and climate linkages. In this way, it is demonstrated how climate change issues are related to basic factors in economic and social development processes, as an introduction to a discussion about how alternative policy recommendations for integrated development and climate policies can be understood in the context of different development paradigms. The last part of the paper returns to the climate change and sustainable development discussion that in recent years has been running in parallel to the Third Assessment of IPCC. This discussion, to a large extent has been dominated by the climate change agenda rather than a broader development policy perspectives, and the paper finally suggests a number of areas where integrated development and climate studies could anchor climate change studies more in the development agenda. (au)

  2. Climate Change Sentiment on Twitter: An Unsolicited Public Opinion Poll.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cody, Emily M; Reagan, Andrew J; Mitchell, Lewis; Dodds, Peter Sheridan; Danforth, Christopher M

    2015-01-01

    The consequences of anthropogenic climate change are extensively debated through scientific papers, newspaper articles, and blogs. Newspaper articles may lack accuracy, while the severity of findings in scientific papers may be too opaque for the public to understand. Social media, however, is a forum where individuals of diverse backgrounds can share their thoughts and opinions. As consumption shifts from old media to new, Twitter has become a valuable resource for analyzing current events and headline news. In this research, we analyze tweets containing the word "climate" collected between September 2008 and July 2014. Through use of a previously developed sentiment measurement tool called the Hedonometer, we determine how collective sentiment varies in response to climate change news, events, and natural disasters. We find that natural disasters, climate bills, and oil-drilling can contribute to a decrease in happiness while climate rallies, a book release, and a green ideas contest can contribute to an increase in happiness. Words uncovered by our analysis suggest that responses to climate change news are predominately from climate change activists rather than climate change deniers, indicating that Twitter is a valuable resource for the spread of climate change awareness.

  3. Climate Change Sentiment on Twitter: An Unsolicited Public Opinion Poll.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily M Cody

    Full Text Available The consequences of anthropogenic climate change are extensively debated through scientific papers, newspaper articles, and blogs. Newspaper articles may lack accuracy, while the severity of findings in scientific papers may be too opaque for the public to understand. Social media, however, is a forum where individuals of diverse backgrounds can share their thoughts and opinions. As consumption shifts from old media to new, Twitter has become a valuable resource for analyzing current events and headline news. In this research, we analyze tweets containing the word "climate" collected between September 2008 and July 2014. Through use of a previously developed sentiment measurement tool called the Hedonometer, we determine how collective sentiment varies in response to climate change news, events, and natural disasters. We find that natural disasters, climate bills, and oil-drilling can contribute to a decrease in happiness while climate rallies, a book release, and a green ideas contest can contribute to an increase in happiness. Words uncovered by our analysis suggest that responses to climate change news are predominately from climate change activists rather than climate change deniers, indicating that Twitter is a valuable resource for the spread of climate change awareness.

  4. Challenging conflicting discourses of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fleming, Aysha; Vanclay, Frank; Hiller, Claire; Wilson, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    The influence of language on communication about climate change is well recognised, but this understanding is under-utilised by those seeking to increase uptake of action for climate change. We discuss the terms, discourse, resistance, and agency, to assist in developing ways to progress social acti

  5. How Will Climate Change Affect Globalization?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dilyard, John Raymond; Bals, Lydia; Zhuplev, Anatoly;

    2011-01-01

    , it will effect globalization. Businesses, if they want to be sustained, will have to adjust to climate change. This panel will examine two topics within which the relationship between climate change and globalization can be assessed - the sourcing of resources and services when the location of those resources...

  6. Climate change threatens European conservation areas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bastos Araujo, Miguel; Alagador, Diogo; Cabeza, Mar;

    2011-01-01

    Europe has the world's most extensive network of conservation areas. Conservation areas are selected without taking into account the effects of climate change. How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change? We assess the effectiveness of protected areas and the Natur...

  7. Incorporating Agency Into Climate Change Risk Assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R.N. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria, 3195 (Australia)

    2004-11-01

    Human agency has been viewed as a problem for climate change assessments because of its contribution to uncertainty. In this editorial, I outline the advantages of agency in managing climate change risks, describing how those advantages can be placed within a probabilistic framework.

  8. European climate change policy beyond 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-11-15

    There is an increasing scientific consensus that human activities do trigger climate changes. Actual forecasts predict temperature increases that are likely to be beyond the adaptation potential of ecosystems. These considerations play a major role in shaping public opinion and the media landscape, culminating in the view that Europe needs to play a leading role in combating climate change.

  9. Harnessing Homophily to Improve Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monroe, Martha C.; Plate, Richard R.; Adams, Damian C.; Wojcik, Deborah J.

    2015-01-01

    The Cooperative Extension Service (Extension) in the United States is well positioned to educate the public, particularly farmers and foresters, about climate change and to encourage responsible adoption of adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, the climate change attitudes and perceptions of Extension professionals have limited…

  10. International business and global climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pinkse, J.; Kolk, A.

    2008-01-01

    Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and clima

  11. How Does Climate Change Affect Biodiversity?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bastos Araujo, Miguel; Rahbek, Carsten

    2006-01-01

    The most recent and complex bioclimate models excel at describing species' current distributions. Yet, it is unclear which models will best predict how climate change will affect their future distributions.......The most recent and complex bioclimate models excel at describing species' current distributions. Yet, it is unclear which models will best predict how climate change will affect their future distributions....

  12. Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Richardson, K.; Steffen, W.; Liverman, D.; Barker, T.; Jotzo, F.; Kammen, D.M.; Leemans, R.; Lenton, T.M.; Munasinghe, M.; Osman-Elasha, B.; Schellnhuber, H.J.; Stern, N.; Vogel, C.; Waever, O.

    2011-01-01

    Providing an up-to-date synthesis of knowledge relevant to the climate change issue, this book ranges from the basic science documenting the need for policy action to the technologies, economic instruments and political strategies that can be employed in response to climate change. Ethical and cultu

  13. Enchytraeidae (Oligochaeta) in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maraldo, Kristine

    The background for this thesis was to investigate the effect of climate change (increased CO2, temperature and prolonged drought) on field communities of enchytraeids dominated by the species Cognettia sphagnetorum. In the short-term, enchytraeids appear to be unaffected by the climate change when...

  14. 10 Facts on Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    World health organization 10 facts on climate change and health Next UNEP/Still Pictures Previous 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Next Over the last 50 ... more heat in the lower atmosphere. The resulting changes in the global climate bring a range of risks to health, from ...

  15. Bacteria in ice may record climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    @@ To many people, bacteria and climate change are like chalk and cheese: the srnallest creature versus one of the biggest phenomena on Earth. Not really.Scientists with the CAS Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research (ITP) and coworkers recently reported that small bugs deposited in ice and snow might tell how our climate has been changing.

  16. Climate change: Update on international negotiations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silverman, L. [Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States). Office of Policy

    1997-12-31

    This paper outlines the following: United Nations` framework convention on climatic change; the United States` climate change action plan; current issues to be resolved (targets/timetables, policies, advancing commitments of all parties, and compliance); and implications for clean coal technologies.

  17. Climate change and corn susceptibility to mycotoxins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maize is an essential part of the world’s grain supply, but climate change has the potential to increase maize susceptibility to mycotoxigenic fungal pathogens and reduce food security and safety. While rising atmospheric [CO2] is a driving force of climate change, our understanding of how elevated ...

  18. Singapore Students' Misconceptions of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Chew-Hung; Pascua, Liberty

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is an important theme in the investigation of human-environment interactions in geographic education. This study explored the nature of students' understanding of concepts and processes related to climate change. Through semi-structured interviews, data was collected from 27 Secondary 3 (Grade 9) students from Singapore. The data…

  19. Climate change consequences for the indoor environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ariës, M.B.C.; Bluyssen, P.M.

    2009-01-01

    Scientists warn us about climate change and its effects on the outdoor environment. These effects can have significant consequences for the indoor environment, also in the Netherlands. Climate changes will affect different aspects of the indoor environment as well as the stakeholders of that indoor

  20. Forests and climate change: adaptation and mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bodegom, van A.J.; Savenije, H.; Wit, de M.

    2009-01-01

    ETFRN news No. 50: Forests and Climate Change: adaptation and mitigation. This newsletter contains interesting materials for those who think about the question how to proceed with forests and climate change after Copenhagen, with or without an agreement. Here below are presented some observations fr

  1. The response of glaciers to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klok, Elisabeth Jantina

    2003-01-01

    The research described in this thesis addresses two aspects of the response of glaciers to climate change. The first aspect deals with the physical processes that govern the interaction between glaciers and climate change and was treated by (1) studying the spatial and temporal variation of the glac

  2. The changing Chinese SEA indicator guidelines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gao, Jingjing; Christensen, Per; Kørnøv, Lone

    2014-01-01

    In the last decades China has introduced a set of indicators to guide their Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice. The most recent indicator system, proposed in 2009, is based on sector-specific guidelines and it found its justification in past negative experiences with more general...... guidelines (from 2003), which were mostly inspired by, or copied from, international experiences. Based on interviews with practitioners, researchers and administrators, we map and analyse the change in the national guidelines. This analysis is based on a description of the indicators that makes it possible...... to discern different aggregation levels of indicators and then trace the changes occurring under two sets of guidelines. The analysis also reveals the reasons and rationales behind the changes found in the guidelines. This analysis is inspired by implementation theory and a description of some of the more...

  3. The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watts, Nick; Adger, W Neil; Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja; Bai, Yuqi; Byass, Peter; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Colbourn, Tim; Cox, Peter; Davies, Michael; Depledge, Michael; Depoux, Anneliese; Dominguez-Salas, Paula; Drummond, Paul; Ekins, Paul; Flahault, Antoine; Grace, Delia; Graham, Hilary; Haines, Andy; Hamilton, Ian; Johnson, Anne; Kelman, Ilan; Kovats, Sari; Liang, Lu; Lott, Melissa; Lowe, Robert; Luo, Yong; Mace, Georgina; Maslin, Mark; Morrissey, Karyn; Murray, Kris; Neville, Tara; Nilsson, Maria; Oreszczyn, Tadj; Parthemore, Christine; Pencheon, David; Robinson, Elizabeth; Schütte, Stefanie; Shumake-Guillemot, Joy; Vineis, Paolo; Wilkinson, Paul; Wheeler, Nicola; Xu, Bing; Yang, Jun; Yin, Yongyuan; Yu, Chaoqing; Gong, Peng; Montgomery, Hugh; Costello, Anthony

    2016-11-11

    The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change is an international, multidisciplinary research collaboration between academic institutions and practitioners across the world. It follows on from the work of the 2015 Lancet Commission, which concluded that the response to climate change could be "the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century". The Lancet Countdown aims to track the health impacts of climate hazards; health resilience and adaptation; health co-benefits of climate change mitigation; economics and finance; and political and broader engagement. These focus areas form the five thematic working groups of the Lancet Countdown and represent different aspects of the complex association between health and climate change. These thematic groups will provide indicators for a global overview of health and climate change; national case studies highlighting countries leading the way or going against the trend; and engagement with a range of stakeholders. The Lancet Countdown ultimately aims to report annually on a series of indicators across these five working groups. This paper outlines the potential indicators and indicator domains to be tracked by the collaboration, with suggestions on the methodologies and datasets available to achieve this end. The proposed indicator domains require further refinement, and mark the beginning of an ongoing consultation process-from November, 2016 to early 2017-to develop these domains, identify key areas not currently covered, and change indicators where necessary. This collaboration will actively seek to engage with existing monitoring processes, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and WHO's climate and health country profiles. The indicators will also evolve over time through ongoing collaboration with experts and a range of stakeholders, and be dependent on the emergence of new evidence and knowledge. During the course of its work, the Lancet Countdown will adopt a collaborative and

  4. How Volcanism Controls Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P. L.

    2013-12-01

    km decrease in tropopause height. Changes in the rates and types of volcanism have been the primary cause of climate change throughout geologic time. Large explosive volcanoes erupting as frequently as once per decade increment the world into ice ages. Extensive, effusive basaltic volcanism warms the world out of ice ages. Twelve of the 13 dated basaltic table mountains in Iceland experienced their final eruptive phase during the last deglaciation when deposits of sulfate and volcanic ash fell over Greenland at their highest rates. Massive flood basalts are typically accompanied by extreme warming, ozone depletion, and major mass extinctions. The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum occurred when subaerial extrusion of basalts related to the opening of the Greenland-Norwegian Sea suddenly increased to rates greater than 3000 cubic km per km of rift per million years. Dansgaard-Oeschger sudden warming events are contemporaneous with increased volcanism especially in Iceland and last longer when that volcanism lasts longer. Sudden influxes of fresh water often observed in the North Atlantic during these events are most likely caused by extensive sub-glacial volcanism. The Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age, major droughts, and many sudden changes in human civilization began with substantial increases in volcanism. Extensive submarine volcanism does not affect climate directly but is linked with increases in ocean acidity and anoxic events.

  5. Connecting Stakeholders and Climate Science: A Summary of Farmer, Rancher, and Forester Climate Data Needs and Climate Change Attitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rango, A.; Crimmins, M.; Elias, E.; Steele, C. M.; Weiss, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    The mission of the USDA Southwest Regional Climate Hub is to provide farmers, ranchers and forest land owners and managers with information and resources to cope with the impacts of climate change. As such, a clear understanding of landowner needs for weather and climate data and their attitudes about climate change is required. Here we present a summary of results from 17 peer-reviewed articles on studies pertaining to landowner needs and attitudes towards climate change adaptation and mitigation that span much of the continental U.S. and ideally represent a cross-section of different geographies. In general, approximately 75% of landowners and farm advisors believe climate change is occurring, but disagree on the human contribution. Studies found that most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but fewer endorsed farm-based greenhouse gas reduction mitigation strategies. Adaptation is often driven by local concerns and requires locally specific strategies. Perceiving weather variability increased belief in human-caused climate change. Presently farmers and ranchers rely on past experience and short-range forecasts (weeks to seasons) whereas some foresters are requesting long-term predictions on the order of years to decades. Foresters indicated that most of them (74%) are presently unable to find needed long-term information. We augment peer-reviewed literature with observations from landowner workshops conducted in Nevada and Arizona during 2014, the first year of Climate Hub operation. To better collect information about climate change needs and attitudes of farmers, ranchers and foresters across the globe, we created a Climate Change Attitudes collection in JournalMap (https://journalmap.org/usda-southwest-regional-climate-hub/climate-change-attitudes). Users anywhere can add articles to this collection, ultimately generating a comprehensive spatial resource in support of adaptation and mitigation efforts on working lands.

  6. Future tendencies of climate indicators important for adaptation and mitigation strategies in forestry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galos, Borbala; Hänsler, Andreas; Gulyas, Krisztina; Bidlo, Andras; Czimber, Kornel

    2014-05-01

    Climate change is expected to have severe impacts in the forestry sector, especially in low-elevation regions in Southeast Europe, where forests are vulnerable and sensitive to the increasing probability and severity of climatic extremes, especially to droughts. For providing information about the most important regional and local risks and mitigation options for the Carpathian basin, a GIS-supported Decision Support System is under development. This study focuses on the future tendencies of climate indicators that determine the distribution, growth, health status and production of forests as well as the potential pests and diseases. For the analyses the climate database of the Decision Support System has been applied, which contains daily time series for precipitation and temperature means and extremes as well as derived climate indices for 1961-2100. For the future time period, simulation results of 12 regional climate models are included (www.ensembles-eu.org) based on the A1B emission scenario. The main results can be summarized as follows: · The projected change of the climate indices (e.g. total number of hot days, frost days, dry days, consecutive dry periods) and forestry indices (e.g. Ellenberg climate quotient, Forestry aridity index; Tolerance index for beech) indicates the warming and drying of the growing season towards the end of the 21st century. These can have severe consequences on the ecosystem services of forests. · The climatic suitable area of the native tree species is projected to move northwards and upwards in the mountains, respectively. For beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) this shift would mean the drastic shrink of the distribution area in the analyzed region. · The characteristic climate conditions that are expected in the Carpathian basin in the second half of the century, are now located southeastern from the case study region. In this way, the potential future provenance regions can be determined. Results provide input for the climate

  7. Creating Effective Dialogue Around Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiehl, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    Communicating climate change to people from diverse sectors of society has proven to be difficult in the United States. It is widely recognized that difficulties arise from a number of sources, including: basic science understanding, the psychologically affect laden content surrounding climate change, and the diversity of value systems that exist in our society. I explore ways of working with the affect that arises around climate change and describe specific methods to work with the resistance often encountered when communicating this important issue. The techniques I describe are rooted in psychology and group process and provide means for creating more effective narratives to break through the barriers to communicating climate change science. Examples are given from personal experiences in presenting climate change to diverse groups.

  8. Global Climate Change and Infectious Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EK Shuman

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is occurring as a result of warming of the earth’s atmosphere due to human activity generating excess amounts of greenhouse gases. Because of its potential impact on the hydrologic cycle and severe weather events, climate change is expected to have an enormous effect on human health, including on the burden and distribution of many infectious diseases. The infectious diseases that will be most affected by climate change include those that are spread by insect vectors and by contaminated water. The burden of adverse health effects due to these infectious diseases will fall primarily on developing countries, while it is the developed countries that are primarily responsible for climate change. It is up to governments and individuals to take the lead in halting climate change, and we must increase our understanding of the ecology of infectious diseases in order to protect vulnerable populations.

  9. Climate change in EIA - Inspiration from practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2013-01-01

    taking place. For exploring the praxis of integrating climate change in practice a document study of 100 Danish EIA reports is carried out. From these reports, statistics and examples are drawn. The study shows an emphasis on integration of climate change mitigation, using various quantitative tools......Climate change integration has been a topic of much interest in the field of impact assessment for a period, and thus far quite some emphasis has been put on discussions of purpose, relevance and overall approaches in both Environmental Impact Assessment of projects (EIA) and Strategic...... Environmental Assessments of plans and programmes (SEA). However, EIAs and SEAs are already being made, which integrate climate change, and for some aspects this practice has evolved over a long period. This paper seeks to explore this practice and find inspiration from the work with climate change already...

  10. Mesocosms Reveal Ecological Surprises from Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fordham, Damien A

    2015-12-01

    Understanding, predicting, and mitigating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity poses one of the most crucial challenges this century. Currently, we know more about how future climates are likely to shift across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes. Two recent studies show how mesocosm experiments can hasten understanding of the ecological consequences of climate change on species' extinction risk, community structure, and ecosystem functions. Using a large-scale terrestrial warming experiment, Bestion et al. provide the first direct evidence that future global warming can increase extinction risk for temperate ectotherms. Using aquatic mesocosms, Yvon-Durocher et al. show that human-induced climate change could, in some cases, actually enhance the diversity of local communities, increasing productivity. Blending these theoretical and empirical results with computational models will improve forecasts of biodiversity loss and altered ecosystem processes due to climate change.

  11. Adapting to climate change or to stakeholders?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruggeman, Adriana; Camera, Corrado; Giannakis, Elias; Zoumides, Christos; Eliades, Marinos; Djuma, Hakan

    2015-04-01

    The Tamassos dam protects the Pedieos watershed in Cyprus against floods. The waterbody behind the dam serves as a new biodiversity and recreational resource. Water from the dam is also used for domestic water supply for nearby rural communities. However, this peaceful picture is threatened by climate change. Regional Climate Models indicate a drier and warmer Pedieos watershed in the near future (2020-2050). Interviews and meetings with a wide variety of stakeholders, for the development of a climate change adaptation plan for the Pedieos watershed, has created even more uncertainties than climate change. Environmental-minded stakeholders suggested to demolish the dam and to return the watershed to its natural state and the water to downstream ecosystems. Agricultural producers would also like to see the return of stream flows, such that they can divert or impound the water for groundwater recharge and subsequent irrigation. Community leaders similarly prefer stream flows for the recharge of the alluvial river aquifers, to allow them to abstract more groundwater for community water supply. Downstream authorities have different concerns. Here the usually dry river bed serves as the drainage of the urban agglomeration of the capital of Nicosia; and has been identified as an area of potentially significant flood risk for the European Flood Directive (2007/60/EC). The largest storm event in the upstream area in the recent past occurred in January 1989, before the construction of the dam. The runoff totalled 3.1 million m3 in one day and 4.4 million m3 in two days. Thus, part of the runoff would have flown straight through the spillway of the 2.8 million m3 dam reservoir. Average annual precipitation in the highly sloping, forested upstream area is 500 mm, while stream flows average 4.7 million m3/yr (1981-2001). This results in an average runoff coefficient of 19% for the 45-km2 upstream area. Past observations, climate change projections and hydrologic models

  12. Adaptation to climate change in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertz, Ole; Halsnaes, Kirsten; Olesen, Jørgen E; Rasmussen, Kjeld

    2009-05-01

    Adaptation to climate change is given increasing international attention as the confidence in climate change projections is getting higher. Developing countries have specific needs for adaptation due to high vulnerabilities, and they will in this way carry a great part of the global costs of climate change although the rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are mainly the responsibility of industrialized countries. This article provides a status of climate change adaptation in developing countries. An overview of observed and projected climate change is given, and recent literature on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation are reviewed, including the emerging focus on mainstreaming of climate change and adaptation in development plans and programs. The article also serves as an introduction to the seven research articles of this special issue on climate change adaptation in developing countries. It is concluded that although many useful steps have been taken in the direction of ensuring adequate adaptation in developing countries, much work still remains to fully understand the drivers of past adaptation efforts, the need for future adaptation, and how to mainstream climate into general development policies.

  13. Exploring the Ocean Through Climate Indicators: What Do Research, Predictions, and Decision-makers Need to Know?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrigo, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    There are several new and ongoing efforts around communicating climate and global change and variability by developing Climate Indicators (e.g. the US Global Change Research Project's Pilot Indicators Program, the US EPA's Climate Change Indicators, and the Ocean Observations Panel for Climate State of the Ocean indicators). Indicators provide information tailored to identified stakeholders and facilitate monitoring status, trends, extremes and variability of important climate features or processes. NOAA's Climate Monitoring program is in the middle of a three-year initiative toward supporting research toward the development of Ocean Climate Indicators for research, prediction, and decision makers. These indices combine ocean observations, climate data and products from platforms like (but not limited to) the drifting buoy, Argo, satellite, and buoy arrays that provide fundamental observations that contribute towards climate understanding, predictions, and projections. The program is supporting eight distinct projects that focus on primarily regional indices that target varied stakeholders and outreach strategies - from public awareness and education to targeted model performance improvement. This presentation will discuss the diverse set of projects, initial results, and discuss possibilities for and examples of using the indicators and processes for developing them for broader science outreach and education, with an eye toward the aim of organizing the ocean climate and observing community around developing a comprehensive ocean monitoring and indicators system.

  14. Assessing Mammal Exposure to Climate Change in the Brazilian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, Bruno R.; Sales, Lilian P.; De Marco, Paulo; Loyola, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to biodiversity in the 21st century. Species’ response to climate change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however uneven within species’ range, so that some populations may be more at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on determining species’ vulnerability across their geographic ranges. Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate change across species’ ranges. We identified areas in the Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to non-analogue climates in the future with different variables predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient enough to avert those impacts. PMID:27829036

  15. Mirador - Climate Variability and Change

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Earth Science data access made simple. NASA's role in climate variability study is centered around providing the global scale observational data sets on oceans and...

  16. Achieving Climate Change Absolute Accuracy in Orbit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wielicki, Bruce A.; Young, D. F.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Thome, K. J; Leroy, S.; Corliss, J.; Anderson, J. G.; Ao, C. O.; Bantges, R.; Best, F.; Bowman, K.; Brindley, H.; Butler, J. J.; Collins, W.; Dykema, J. A.; Doelling, D. R.; Feldman, D. R.; Fox, N.; Huang, X.; Holz, R.; Huang, Y.; Jennings, D.; Jin, Z.; Johnson, D. G.; Jucks, K.; Kato, S.; Kratz, D. P.; Liu, X.; Lukashin, C.; Mannucci, A. J.; Phojanamongkolkij, N.; Roithmayr, C. M.; Sandford, S.; Taylor, P. C.; Xiong, X.

    2013-01-01

    The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission will provide a calibration laboratory in orbit for the purpose of accurately measuring and attributing climate change. CLARREO measurements establish new climate change benchmarks with high absolute radiometric accuracy and high statistical confidence across a wide range of essential climate variables. CLARREO's inherently high absolute accuracy will be verified and traceable on orbit to Système Internationale (SI) units. The benchmarks established by CLARREO will be critical for assessing changes in the Earth system and climate model predictive capabilities for decades into the future as society works to meet the challenge of optimizing strategies for mitigating and adapting to climate change. The CLARREO benchmarks are derived from measurements of the Earth's thermal infrared spectrum (5-50 micron), the spectrum of solar radiation reflected by the Earth and its atmosphere (320-2300 nm), and radio occultation refractivity from which accurate temperature profiles are derived. The mission has the ability to provide new spectral fingerprints of climate change, as well as to provide the first orbiting radiometer with accuracy sufficient to serve as the reference transfer standard for other space sensors, in essence serving as a "NIST [National Institute of Standards and Technology] in orbit." CLARREO will greatly improve the accuracy and relevance of a wide range of space-borne instruments for decadal climate change. Finally, CLARREO has developed new metrics and methods for determining the accuracy requirements of climate observations for a wide range of climate variables and uncertainty sources. These methods should be useful for improving our understanding of observing requirements for most climate change observations.

  17. Understanding Controversies in Urban Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baron, Nina; Petersen, Lars Kjerulf

    2015-01-01

    This article explores the controversies that exist in urban climate change adaptation and how these controversies influence the role of homeowners in urban adaptation planning. A concrete SUDS project in a housing cooperative in Copenhagen has been used as a case study thereby investigating...... on the actor-network inspired theory of “urban green assemblages” we argue that at least three different assemblages can be identified in urban climate change adaptation. Each assemblage frames problems and responses differently, and thereby assigns different types of roles to homeowners. As climate change...... is a problem of unknown character and outcome in the future, we argue that it can be problematic if one way of framing urban climate change adaptation overrules the others. Some understandings of climate problems and adaptation options may become less influential, even though they could contribute to creating...

  18. Climate change and species interactions: ways forward.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angert, Amy L; LaDeau, Shannon L; Ostfeld, Richard S

    2013-09-01

    With ongoing and rapid climate change, ecologists are being challenged to predict how individual species will change in abundance and distribution, how biotic communities will change in structure and function, and the consequences of these climate-induced changes for ecosystem functioning. It is now well documented that indirect effects of climate change on species abundances and distributions, via climatic effects on interspecific interactions, can outweigh and even reverse the direct effects of climate. However, a clear framework for incorporating species interactions into projections of biological change remains elusive. To move forward, we suggest three priorities for the research community: (1) utilize tractable study systems as case studies to illustrate possible outcomes, test processes highlighted by theory, and feed back into modeling efforts; (2) develop a robust analytical framework that allows for better cross-scale linkages; and (3) determine over what time scales and for which systems prediction of biological responses to climate change is a useful and feasible goal. We end with a list of research questions that can guide future research to help understand, and hopefully mitigate, the negative effects of climate change on biota and the ecosystem services they provide.

  19. Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karmalkar, Ambarish V. [University of Oxford, School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford (United Kingdom); Bradley, Raymond S. [University of Massachusetts, Department of Geosciences, Amherst, MA (United States); Diaz, Henry F. [NOAA/ESRL/CIRES, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2011-08-15

    Central America has high biodiversity, it harbors high-value ecosystems and it's important to provide regional climate change information to assist in adaptation and mitigation work in the region. Here we study climate change projections for Central America and Mexico using a regional climate model. The model evaluation shows its success in simulating spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation and also in capturing regional climate features such as the bimodal annual cycle of precipitation and the Caribbean low-level jet. A variety of climate regimes within the model domain are also better identified in the regional model simulation due to improved resolution of topographic features. Although, the model suffers from large precipitation biases, it shows improvements over the coarse-resolution driving model in simulating precipitation amounts. The model shows a dry bias in the wet season and a wet bias in the dry season suggesting that it's unable to capture the full range of precipitation variability. Projected warming under the A2 scenario is higher in the wet season than that in the dry season with the Yucatan Peninsula experiencing highest warming. A large reduction in precipitation in the wet season is projected for the region, whereas parts of Central America that receive a considerable amount of moisture in the form of orographic precipitation show significant decreases in precipitation in the dry season. Projected climatic changes can have detrimental impacts on biodiversity as they are spatially similar, but far greater in magnitude, than those observed during the El Nino events in recent decades that adversely affected species in the region. (orig.)

  20. Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karmalkar, Ambarish V.; Bradley, Raymond S.; Diaz, Henry F.

    2011-08-01

    Central America has high biodiversity, it harbors high-value ecosystems and it's important to provide regional climate change information to assist in adaptation and mitigation work in the region. Here we study climate change projections for Central America and Mexico using a regional climate model. The model evaluation shows its success in simulating spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation and also in capturing regional climate features such as the bimodal annual cycle of precipitation and the Caribbean low-level jet. A variety of climate regimes within the model domain are also better identified in the regional model simulation due to improved resolution of topographic features. Although, the model suffers from large precipitation biases, it shows improvements over the coarse-resolution driving model in simulating precipitation amounts. The model shows a dry bias in the wet season and a wet bias in the dry season suggesting that it's unable to capture the full range of precipitation variability. Projected warming under the A2 scenario is higher in the wet season than that in the dry season with the Yucatan Peninsula experiencing highest warming. A large reduction in precipitation in the wet season is projected for the region, whereas parts of Central America that receive a considerable amount of moisture in the form of orographic precipitation show significant decreases in precipitation in the dry season. Projected climatic changes can have detrimental impacts on biodiversity as they are spatially similar, but far greater in magnitude, than those observed during the El Niño events in recent decades that adversely affected species in the region.

  1. The role of the thermohaline circulation in abrupt climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Peter U; Pisias, Nicklas G; Stocker, Thomas F; Weaver, Andrew J

    2002-02-21

    The possibility of a reduced Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increases in greenhouse-gas concentrations has been demonstrated in a number of simulations with general circulation models of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. But it remains difficult to assess the likelihood of future changes in the thermohaline circulation, mainly owing to poorly constrained model parameterizations and uncertainties in the response of the climate system to greenhouse warming. Analyses of past abrupt climate changes help to solve these problems. Data and models both suggest that abrupt climate change during the last glaciation originated through changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to small changes in the hydrological cycle. Atmospheric and oceanic responses to these changes were then transmitted globally through a number of feedbacks. The palaeoclimate data and the model results also indicate that the stability of the thermohaline circulation depends on the mean climate state.

  2. Vulnerabilities of macrophytes distribution due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossain, Kaizar; Yadav, Sarita; Quaik, Shlrene; Pant, Gaurav; Maruthi, A. Y.; Ismail, Norli

    2016-06-01

    The rise in the earth's surface and water temperature is part of the effect of climatic change that has been observed for the last decade. The rates of climate change are unprecedented, and biological responses to these changes have also been prominent in all levels of species, communities and ecosystems. Aquatic-terrestrial ecotones are vulnerable to climate change, and degradation of the emergent aquatic macrophyte zone would have contributed severe ecological consequences for freshwater, wetland and terrestrial ecosystems. Most researches on climate change effects on biodiversity are contemplating on the terrestrial realm, and considerable changes in terrestrial biodiversity and species' distributions have been detected in response to climate change. This is unfortunate, given the importance of aquatic systems for providing ecosystem goods and services. Thus, if researchers were able to identify early-warning indicators of anthropogenic environmental changes on aquatic species, communities and ecosystems, it would certainly help to manage and conserve these systems in a sustainable way. One of such early-warning indicators concerns the expansion of emergent macrophytes in aquatic-terrestrial ecotones. Hence, this review highlights the impact of climatic changes towards aquatic macrophytes and their possible environmental implications.

  3. Modeling Climate Change in the Absence of Climate Change Data. Editorial Comment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skiles, J. W.

    1995-01-01

    Practitioners of climate change prediction base many of their future climate scenarios on General Circulation Models (GCM's), each model with differing assumptions and parameter requirements. For representing the atmosphere, GCM's typically contain equations for calculating motion of particles, thermodynamics and radiation, and continuity of water vapor. Hydrology and heat balance are usually included for continents, and sea ice and heat balance are included for oceans. The current issue of this journal contains a paper by Van Blarcum et al. (1995) that predicts runoff from nine high-latitude rivers under a doubled CO2 atmosphere. The paper is important since river flow is an indicator variable for climate change. The authors show that precipitation will increase under the imposed perturbations and that owing to higher temperatures earlier in the year that cause the snow pack to melt sooner, runoff will also increase. They base their simulations on output from a GCM coupled with an interesting water routing scheme they have devised. Climate change models have been linked to other models to predict deforestation.

  4. Technologies for climate change adaptation. Agriculture sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, X. (ed.) (UNEP Risoe Centre, Roskilde (Denmark)); Clements, R.; Quezada, A.; Torres, J. (Practical Action Latin America, Lima (Peru)); Haggar, J. (Univ. of Greenwich, London (United Kingdom))

    2011-08-15

    This guidebook presents a selection of technologies for climate change adaptation in the agriculture sector. A set of 22 adaptation technologies are showcased. These are based primarily on the principles of agroecology, but also include scientific technologies of climate and biological sciences complemented by important sociological and institutional capacity building processes that are required for climate change to function. The technologies cover: 1) Planning for climate change and variability. 2) Sustainable water use and management. 3) Soil management. 4) Sustainable crop management. 5) Sustainable livestock management. 6) Sustainable farming systems. 7) Capacity building and stakeholder organisation. Technologies that tend to homogenise the natural environment and agricultural production have low possibilities of success in environmental stress conditions that are likely to result from climate change. On the other hand, technologies that allow for, and promote diversity are more likely to provide a strategy which strengthens agricultural production in the face of uncertain future climate change scenarios. The 22 technologies showcased in this guidebook have been selected because they facilitate the conservation and restoration of diversity while also providing opportunities for increasing agricultural productivity. Many of these technologies are not new to agricultural production practices, but they are implemented based on the assessment of current and possible future impacts of climate change in a particular location. agroecology is an approach that encompasses concepts of sustainable production and biodiversity promotion and therefore provides a useful framework for identifying and selecting appropriate adaptation technologies for the agriculture sector. The guidebook provides a systematic analysis of the most relevant information available on climate change adaptation technologies in the agriculture sector. It has been compiled based on a literature

  5. Reconstructing Student Conceptions of Climate Change; An Inquiry Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClelland, J. Collin

    No other environmental issue today has as much potential to alter life on Earth as does global climate change. Scientific evidence continues to grow; indicating that climate change is occurring now, and that change is a result of human activities (National Research Council [NRC], 2010). The need for climate literacy in society has become increasingly urgent. Unfortunately, understanding the concepts necessary for climate literacy remains a challenge for most individuals. A growing research base has identified a number of common misconceptions people have about climate literacy concepts (Leiserowitz, Smith, & Marlon 2011; Shepardson, Niyogi, Choi, & Charusombat, 2009). However, few have explored this understanding in high school students. This sequential mixed methods study explored the changing conceptions of global climate change in 90 sophomore biology students through the course of their participation in an eight-week inquiry-based global climate change unit. The study also explored changes in students' attitudes over the course of the study unit, contemplating possible relationships between students' conceptual understanding of and attitudes toward global climate change. Phase I of the mixed methods study included quantitative analysis of pre-post content knowledge and attitude assessment data. Content knowledge gains were statistically significant and over 25% of students in the study shifted from an expressed belief of denial or uncertainty about global warming to one of belief in it. Phase II used an inductive approach to explore student attitudes and conceptions. Conceptually, very few students grew to a scientifically accurate understanding of the greenhouse effect or the relationship between global warming and climate change. However, they generally made progress in their conceptual understanding by adding more specific detail to explain their understanding. Phase III employed a case study approach with eight purposefully selected student cases

  6. Application of climatic indices to analyse viticultural suitability in Extremadura, south-western Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moral, Francisco J.; Rebollo, Francisco J.; Paniagua, Luis L.; García, Abelardo; de Salazar, Enrique Martínez

    2016-01-01

    Although climate is recognised as one of the main drivers of viticulture success, its main features have not been sufficiently described in many viticultural regions, including Extremadura, which contains one of the largest grapevine-growing areas in Europe. Using climatic data from 80 weather stations located throughout Extremadura, seven bioclimatic indices were calculated to estimate heat accumulation and potential water balance during the growing season and the thermal regime during the ripening of grapes. Differences in some climatic indices were found, and after a multivariate geographic analysis, four groups were delimited containing weather stations with similar climatic features, with variability between groups explained by heat accumulation and tempearture and thermal amplitude during the ripening season. Suitability for cultivation of grapevines without thermal restriction and temperate nights during the ripening period are the main characteristics of the weather stations studied, but spatial variability found in climatic potential denotes the importance of differentiating locations to properly relate the viticultural climate to grape quality factors and the style of wines produced. The climatic features of the four groups are very similar to those described in other viticultural regions, including those in close proximity to Extremadura and others worldwide, but few studies have used broad and updated temporal climate data for computing bioclimatic indices as in this case study. Finally, trends in climate indices were analysed. Results revealed that all groups have experienced warmer growing seasons, driven mainly by changes in minimum temperatures. This fact has numerous potential impacts, including changes in grapevine phenological timing, disruption of balanced composition in grapes (ultimately affecting wine characteristics), alterations in varieties grown and spatial changes in viable winegrape-growing zones.

  7. Regional Climate Change Hotspots over Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anber, U.; Zakey, A.; Abd El Wahab, M.

    2009-04-01

    Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), is developed based on regional mean precipitation change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature interannual variability. The RCCI is a comparative index designed to identify the most responsive regions to climate change, or Hot- Spots. The RCCI is calculated for Seven land regions over North Africa and Arabian region from the latest set of climate change projections by 14 global climates for the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC emission scenarios. The concept of climate change can be approaches from the viewpoint of vulnerability or from that of climate response. In the former case a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region for which potential climate change impacts on the environment or different activity sectors can be particularly pronounced. In the other case, a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region whose climate is especially responsive to global change. In particular, the characterization of climate change response-based Hot-Spot can provide key information to identify and investigate climate change Hot-Spots based on results from multi-model ensemble of climate change simulations performed by modeling groups from around the world as contributions to the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) is defined based on four variables: change in regional mean surface air temperature relative to the global average temperature change ( or Regional Warming Amplification Factor, RWAF ), change in mean regional precipitation (P % , of present day value ), change in regional surface air temperature interannual variability (T % ,of present day value), change in regional precipitation interannual variability (P % ,of present day value ). In the definition of the RCCI it is important to include quantities other than mean change because often mean changes are not the only important factors for specific impacts. We thus also include inter

  8. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    OpenAIRE

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simula...

  9. Climate Change Creates Trade Opportunity in India

    OpenAIRE

    Dinda, Soumyananda

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is an emerging challenge to developing economy like India however it also creates opportunity to grow through climate friendly goods production and new direction of trade. This paper focuses India’s potential export trade in climate friendly goods. The estimated gravity model is defined as the potential trade and potential trade gap is measured as how well a bilateral trade flow performs relative to the mean as predicted by the model. Potential trade gap means that actual trade...

  10. Turning points in climate change adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saskia Elisabeth. Werners

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Concerned decision makers increasingly pose questions as to whether current management practices are able to cope with climate change and increased climate variability. This signifies a shift in the framing of climate change from asking what its potential impacts are to asking whether it induces policy failure and unacceptable change. In this paper, we explore the background, feasibility, and consequences of this new framing. We focus on the specific situation in which a social-political threshold of concern is likely to be exceeded as a result of climate change, requiring consideration of alternative strategies. Action is imperative when such a situation is conceivable, and at this point climate change becomes particularly relevant to decision makers. We call this situation an "adaptation turning point." The assessment of adaptation turning points converts uncertainty surrounding the extent of a climate impact into a time range over which it is likely that specific thresholds will be exceeded. This can then be used to take adaptive action. Despite the difficulty in identifying adaptation turning points and the relative newness of the approach, experience so far suggests that the assessment generates a meaningful dialogue between stakeholders and scientists. Discussion revolves around the amount of change that is acceptable; how likely it is that unacceptable, or more favorable, conditions will be reached; and the adaptation pathways that need to be considered under these circumstances. Defining and renegotiating policy objectives under climate change are important topics in the governance of adaptation.

  11. How does climate change cause extinction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahill, Abigail E; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Fisher-Reid, M Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J; Ryu, Hae Yeong; Sbeglia, Gena C; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J

    2013-01-07

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.

  12. The Environmental Justice Dimensions of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Miranda, Marie Lynn; Hastings, Douglas Andrew; Aldy, Joseph Edgar; Schlesinger, William H.

    2011-01-01

    Nations around the world are considering strategies to mitigate the severe impacts of climate change predicted to occur in the twenty-first century. Many countries, however, lack the wealth, technology, and government institutions to effectively cope with climate change. This study investigates the varying degrees to which developing and developed nations will be exposed to changes in three key variables: temperature, precipitation, and runoff. We use Geographic Information Systems (GIS) anal...

  13. An Astronomer's View of Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    Morton, Donald C

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes some of the astronomical effects that could be important for understanding the ice ages, historic climate changes and the recent temperature increase. These include changes in the sun's luminosity, periodic changes in the earth's orbital parameters, the sun's orbit around our galaxy, the variability of solar activity and the anticorrelation of cosmic ray flux with that activity. Finally recent trends in solar activity and global temperatures are compared with the predictions of climate models.

  14. Understanding coupled climatic and ecosystem responses to global climate change in the Central Grasslands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Falkner, M.B.; Detling, J.; Ojima, D.; Pielke, R.A.; Stohlgren, T.J. (Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins (United States)); Kittel, T.G.F. (Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins (United States) UCAR, Boulder, CO (United States)); Lenihan, J.; Neilson, R. (Oregon State Univ., Corvallis (United States)); Reiners, W. (Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie (United States))

    1993-06-01

    A long-term National Park Service research program to assess the potential effect of global climate change on the Central Grasslands Biogeographic Area is underway. The program consists of two integrated projects: Projecting climate and vegetation change at regional to landscape scales; and Predicting the effect of global change on vegetation in park landscapes at the plot to landscape scales. Together, these integrated field and modeling studies establish a means to validate mesoscale and landscape vegetation models, a central goal of the NPS Global Change Research Program. Vegetation life form modeling suggests that under climate change scenarios the distribution of grassland vegetation zones will undergo major shifts. Results indicate that climate change impacts that reduce water availability will more severely depress productivity of C[sub 3] grass communities relative to C[sub 4] grass communities.

  15. REDEFINING ENSO EPISODES BASED ON CHANGED CLIMATE REFERENCES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Xiao-yan; ZHAI Pan-mao; REN Fu-min

    2005-01-01

    Through studying changes in ENSO indices relative to change of climate reference from 1961~1990 to 1971~2000, the study generated new standards to define ENSO episodes and their intensities. Then according to the new climate references and new index standards, ENSO episodes and their intensities for the period 1951 -2003 have been classified. Finally, an analysis has been performed comparing the new characteristics with the old ones for ENSO period, peak values and intensities.

  16. Sensitivity of streamflow to climate change in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grantham, T.; Carlisle, D.; Wolock, D.; McCabe, G. J.; Wieczorek, M.; Howard, J.

    2015-12-01

    Trends of decreasing snowpack and increasing risk of drought are looming challenges for California water resource management. Increasing vulnerability of the state's natural water supplies threatens California's social-economic vitality and the health of its freshwater ecosystems. Despite growing awareness of potential climate change impacts, robust management adaptation has been hindered by substantial uncertainty in future climate predictions for the region. Down-scaled global climate model (GCM) projections uniformly suggest future warming of the region, but projections are highly variable with respect to the direction and magnitude of change in regional precipitation. Here we examine the sensitivity of California surface water supplies to climate variation independently of GCMs. We use a statistical approach to construct predictive models of monthly streamflow based on historical climate and river basin features. We then propagate an ensemble of synthetic climate simulations through the models to assess potential streamflow responses to changes in temperature and precipitation in different months and regions of the state. We also consider the range of streamflow change predicted by bias-corrected downscaled GCMs. Our results indicate that the streamflow in the xeric and coastal mountain regions of California is more sensitive to changes in precipitation than temperature, whereas streamflow in the interior mountain region responds strongly to changes in both temperature and precipitation. Mean climate projections for 2025-2075 from GCM ensembles are highly variable, indicating streamflow changes of -50% to +150% relative to baseline (1980-2010) for most months and regions. By quantifying the sensitivity of streamflow to climate change, rather than attempting to predict future hydrologic conditions based on uncertain GCM projections, these results should be more informative to water managers seeking to assess, and potentially reduce, the vulnerability of surface

  17. Conservation and adaptation to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooke, Cassandra

    2008-12-01

    The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science-policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations-organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy-could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change.

  18. Anthropogenic Aerosols in Asia, Radiative Forcing, and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramaswamy, V.; Bollasina, M. A.; Ming, Y.; Ocko, I.; Persad, G.

    2014-12-01

    Aerosols arising as a result of human-induced emissions in Asia form a key 'driver' in causing pollution and in the forcing of anthropogenic climate change. The manner of the forced climate change is sensitive to the scattering and absorption properties of the aerosols and the aerosol-cloud microphysical interactions. Using the NOAA/ GFDL global climate models and observations from multiple platforms, we investigate the radiative perturbations due to the 20th Century sulfate and carbonaceous aerosol emissions and the resultant impacts on surface temperature, tropical precipitation, Indian monsoon, hemispheric circulation, and atmospheric and oceanic heat transports. The influence of the aerosol species has many contrasts with that due to the anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gas emissions e.g., the asymmetry in the hemispheric climate response, but is subject to larger uncertainties. The aerosol forcing expected in the future indicates a significant control on the 21st Century anthropogenic climate change in Asia.

  19. The deep ocean under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Lisa A.; Le Bris, Nadine

    2015-11-01

    The deep ocean absorbs vast amounts of heat and carbon dioxide, providing a critical buffer to climate change but exposing vulnerable ecosystems to combined stresses of warming, ocean acidification, deoxygenation, and altered food inputs. Resulting changes may threaten biodiversity and compromise key ocean services that maintain a healthy planet and human livelihoods. There exist large gaps in understanding of the physical and ecological feedbacks that will occur. Explicit recognition of deep-ocean climate mitigation and inclusion in adaptation planning by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) could help to expand deep-ocean research and observation and to protect the integrity and functions of deep-ocean ecosystems.

  20. The deep ocean under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Lisa A; Le Bris, Nadine

    2015-11-13

    The deep ocean absorbs vast amounts of heat and carbon dioxide, providing a critical buffer to climate change but exposing vulnerable ecosystems to combined stresses of warming, ocean acidification, deoxygenation, and altered food inputs. Resulting changes may threaten biodiversity and compromise key ocean services that maintain a healthy planet and human livelihoods. There exist large gaps in understanding of the physical and ecological feedbacks that will occur. Explicit recognition of deep-ocean climate mitigation and inclusion in adaptation planning by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) could help to expand deep-ocean research and observation and to protect the integrity and functions of deep-ocean ecosystems.

  1. Climate Change Hotspots Identification in China through the CMIP5 Global Climate Model Ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huanghe Gu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available China is one of the countries vulnerable to adverse climate changes. The potential climate change hotspots in China throughout the 21st century are identified in this study by using a multimodel, multiscenario climate model ensemble that includes Phase Five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Both high (RCP8.5 and low (RCP4.5 greenhouse gas emission trajectories are tested, and both the mean and extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation are considered in identifying regional climate change hotspots. Tarim basin and Tibetan Plateau in West China are identified as persistent regional climate change hotspots in both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The aggregate impacts of climate change increase throughout the 21st century and are more significant in RCP8.5 than in RCP4.5. Extreme hot event and mean temperature are two climate variables that greatly contribute to the hotspots calculation in all regions. The contribution of other climate variables exhibits a notable subregional variability. South China is identified as another hotspot based on the change of extreme dry event, especially in SON and DJF, which indicates that such event will frequently occur in the future. Our results can contribute to the designing of national and cross-national adaptation and mitigation policies.

  2. Assessing local vulnerability to climate change in Ecuador.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Mario Andres; Bucaram, Santiago J; Renteria, Willington

    2015-01-01

    Vulnerability assessments have become necessary to increase the understanding of climate-sensitive systems and inform resource allocation in developing countries. Challenges arise when poor economic and social development combines with heterogeneous climatic conditions. Thus, finding and harmonizing good-quality data at local scale may be a significant hurdle for vulnerability research. In this paper we assess vulnerability to climate change at a local level in Ecuador. We take Ecuador as a case study as socioeconomic data are readily available. To incorporate the spatial and temporal pattern of the climatic variables we use reanalysis datasets and empirical orthogonal functions. Our assessment strategy relies on the statistical behavior of climatic and socioeconomic indicators for the weighting and aggregation mechanism into a composite vulnerability indicator. Rather than assuming equal contribution to the formation of the composite indicator, we assume that the weights of the indicators vary inversely as the variance over the cantons (administrative division of Ecuador). This approach captures the multi-dimensionality of vulnerability in a comprehensive form. We find that the least vulnerable cantons concentrate around Ecuador's largest cities (e.g. Quito and Guayaquil); however, approximately 20 % of the national population lives in other cantons that are categorized as highly and very highly vulnerable to climate change. Results also show that the main determinants of high vulnerability are the lack of land tenure in agricultural areas and the nonexistence of government-funded programs directed to environmental and climate change management.

  3. Impacts of climate change on fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith

    2010-01-01

    experimentally and in controlled conditions. Indirect effects act via ecosystem processes and changes in the production of food or abundance of competitors, predators and pathogens. Recent studies of the effects of climate on primary production are reviewed and the consequences for fisheries production...... are evaluated through regional examples. Regional examples are also used to show changes in distribution and phenology of plankton and fish, which are attributed to climate. The role of discontinuous and extreme events (regime shifts, exceptional warm periods) is discussed. Changes in fish population processes...... and for adapting to climate change. in order to adapt to changing climate, future monitoring and research must be closely linked to responsive, flexible and reflexive management systems. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved....

  4. Vegetation zones shift in changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belda, Michal; Halenka, Tomas; Kalvova, Jaroslava; Holtanova, Eva

    2016-04-01

    The analysis of climate patterns can be performed for each climate variable separately or the data can be aggregated using e.g. some kind of climate classification. These classifications usually correspond to vegetation distribution in the sense that each climate type is dominated by one vegetation zone or eco-region. In case of the Köppen-Trewartha classification it is integrated assessment of temperature and precipitation together with their annual cycle as well. This way climate classifications also represent a convenient tool for the assessment and validation of climate models and for the analysis of simulated future climate changes. The Köppen-Trewartha classification is used on full CMIP5 family of more than 40 GCM simulations and CRU dataset for comparison. This evaluation provides insight on the GCM performance and errors for simulations of the 20th century climate. Common regions are identified, such as Australia or Amazonia, where many state-of-the-art models perform inadequately. Furthermore, the analysis of the CMIP5 ensemble for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 is performed to assess the climate change for future. There are significant changes for some types in most models e.g. increase of savanna and decrease of tundra for the future climate. For some types significant shifts in latitude can be seen when studying their geographical location in selected continental areas, e.g. toward higher latitudes for boreal climate. For Europe, EuroCORDEX results for both 0.11 and 0.44 degree resolution are validated using Köppen-Trewartha types in comparison to E-OBS based classification. ERA-Interim driven simulations are compared to both present conditions of CMIP5 models as well as their downscaling by EuroCORDEX RCMs. Finally, the climate change signal assessment is provided using the individual climate types. In addition to the changes assessed similarly as for GCMs analysis in terms of the area of individual types, in the continental scale some shifts of boundaries

  5. Likely Ranges of Climate Change in Bolivia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seiler, C.; Hutjes, R.W.A.; Kabat, P.

    2013-01-01

    Bolivia is facing numerous climate-related threats, ranging from water scarcity due to rapidly retreating glaciers in the Andes to a partial loss of the Amazon forest in the lowlands. To assess what changes in climate may be expected in the future, 35 global circulation models (GCMs) from the third

  6. Preparing for resettlement associated with climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sherbinin, de A.; Castro, M.; Gemenne, F.; Cernea, M.M.; Adamo, S.; Fearnside, P.M.; Krieger, G.; Lahmani, S.; Oliver-Smith, A.; Pankhurst, A.S.A.

    2011-01-01

    Although there is agreement that climate change will result in population displacements and migration, there are differing views on the potential volume of flows, the likely source and destination areas, the relative role of climatic versus other factors in precipitating movements, and whether migra

  7. Diagnosis Earth: The Climate Change Debate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderegg, William R. L.

    2010-01-01

    In the scrum of popular and political discourse on global warming, the scholarship of climate science is often left sitting on the sideline. Yet understanding the science and the scientists presents the best chance of developing an informed opinion about climate change. Confusion about the science, misunderstanding of risk assessment and…

  8. Effects of historical land cover changes on climate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI ZhengGuo; YAN XiaoDong; YIN ChongHua; WANG ZhaoMin

    2007-01-01

    In order to explore the influence of anthropogenic land use on the climate system during the last millennium, a set of experiments is performed with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity--the McGill Paleoclimate Model (MPM-2). The present paper mainly focuses on biogeophysical effects of historical land cover changes. A dynamic scenario of deforestation is described based on changes in cropland fraction (RF99). The model simulates a decrease in global mean annual temperature in the range of 0.09-0.16℃, especially 0.14-0.22℃ in Northern Hemisphere during the last 300 years. The responses of climate system to GHGs concentration changes are also calculated for comparisons. Now, afforestation is becoming an important choice for the enhancement of terrestrial carbon sequestration and adjustment of regional climate. The results indicate that biogeophysical effects of land cover changes cannot be neglected in the assessments of climate change.

  9. Winds of change: corporate strategy, climate change and oil multinationals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kolk, A.; Levy, D.L.

    2001-01-01

    Behind pessimistic expectations regarding the future of an international climate treaty, substantial changes can be observed in company positions. Multinationals in the oil and car industries are increasingly moving toward support for the Kyoto Protocol, and take measures to address climate change.

  10. Is climate change modifying precipitation extremes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montanari, Alberto; Papalexiou, Simon Michael

    2016-04-01

    The title of the present contribution is a relevant question that is frequently posed to scientists, technicians and managers of local authorities. Although several research efforts were recently dedicated to rainfall observation, analysis and modelling, the above question remains essentially unanswered. The question comes from the awareness that the frequency of floods and the related socio-economic impacts are increasing in many countries, and climate change is deemed to be the main trigger. Indeed, identifying the real reasons for the observed increase of flood risk is necessary in order to plan effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. While mitigation of climate change is an extremely important issue at the global level, at small spatial scales several other triggers may interact with it, therefore requiring different mitigation strategies. Similarly, the responsibilities of administrators are radically different at local and global scales. This talk aims to provide insights and information to address the question expressed by its title. High resolution and long term rainfall data will be presented, as well as an analysis of the frequency of their extremes and its progress in time. The results will provide pragmatic indications for the sake of better planning flood risk mitigation policies.

  11. Climate change and preventive medicine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faergeman, Ole

    2007-01-01

    Thermal stress, food poisoning, infectious diseases, malnutrition, psychiatric illness as well as injury and death from floods, storms and fire are all likely to become more common as the earth warms and the climate becomes more variable. In contrast, obesity, type II diabetes and coronary artery...

  12. Climate Change, Conflict, and Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akresh, Richard

    2016-01-01

    We have good reason to predict that a warming climate will produce more conflict and violence. A growing contingent of researchers has been examining the relationship in recent years, and they've found that hotter temperatures and reduced rainfall are linked to increases in conflict at all scales, from interpersonal violence to war. Children are…

  13. Climate change impacts and adaptations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn

    2015-01-01

    In this article, we assert that developing countries are much better prepared to undertake negotiations at the Conference of the Parties in Paris (CoP21) as compared to CoP15 in Copenhagen. An important element of this is the accumulation of knowledge with respect to the implications of climate c...

  14. Cave temperatures and global climatic change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badino Giovanni

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The physical processes that establish the cave temperature are briefly discussed, showing that cave temperature is generally strictly connected with the external climate. The Global Climatic changes can then influence also the underground climate. It is shown that the mountain thermal inertia causes a delay between the two climates and then a thermal unbalance between the cave and the atmosphere. As a consequence there is a net energy flux from the atmosphere to the mountain, larger than the geothermal one, which is deposited mainly in the epidermal parts of caves.

  15. Climate change and developing country interests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Chinowsky, Paul; Fant, Charles;

    We consider the interplay of climate change impacts, global mitigation policies, and the interests of developing countries to 2050. Focusing on Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia, we employ a structural approach to biophysical and economic modeling that incorporates climate uncertainty and allows...... developing countries in effective global mitigation policies, even in the relatively near term, with the likelihood of much larger benefits post 2050....... for rigorous comparison of climate, biophysical, and economic outcomes across global mitigation regimes. We find that effective global mitigation policies generate two sources of benefit. First, less distorted climate outcomes result in typically more favourable economic outcomes. Second, successful global...

  16. THE INUNDATIONS IN ROMANIA, CONSEQUENCE THE CLIMATE CHANGES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mariana Ciobanu; Gabriela Demian [University of Craiova, Faculty of Engineering and Management of the Technological Systems, Drobeta Turnu Severin (Romania); Marius Victor Ciobanu [Inspectorate District of Frontier Police, Mehedinti (Romania)

    2008-09-30

    Climate Change is one of the major challenges of our century-a complex area of which we still need to improve our knowledge and understanding in order to take timely and correct measures for tackling the climate change challenges in the most cost effective way, while following the precautionary principle. Climate change affects us all. Globally, as well as at national and local levels within our own country. Whether or not these floods are the direct result of climate change, they provide an indication of the kind of future impacts that climate change may have on our local communities. With this Strategy, Romania takes its first steps towards a targeted and coordinated national effort to limit emissions of greenhouse gas emissions and deal with the climatic changes that are to be expected, regardless of efforts to limit emissions. The Romanian Government wishes to consider and address the future requirements for Romania resulting from our future membership of the EU as well as from our international commitments under the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol, in order to prepare for the most feasible national approach both in the short, medium and long term. Climate changes, through consequences immediately, presently social relocate, economically and polilical irremediably crisis, on long time.

  17. Changing climate, changing forests: the impacts of climate change on forests of the northeastern United States and eastern Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rustad, Lindsey; Campbell, John; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Huntington, Thomas; Lambert, Kathy Fallon; Mohan, Jacqueline; Rodenhouse, Nicholas

    2012-01-01

    Decades of study on climatic change and its direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems provide important insights for forest science, management, and policy. A synthesis of recent research from the northeastern United States and eastern Canada shows that the climate of the region has become warmer and wetter over the past 100 years and that there are more extreme precipitation events. Greater change is projected in the future. The amount of projected future change depends on the emissions scenarios used. Tree species composition of northeast forests has shifted slowly in response to climate for thousands of years. However, current human-accelerated climate change is much more rapid and it is unclear how forests will respond to large changes in suitable habitat. Projections indicate significant declines in suitable habitat for spruce-fir forests and expansion of suitable habitat for oak-dominated forests. Productivity gains that might result from extended growing seasons and carbon dioxide and nitrogen fertilization may be offset by productivity losses associated with the disruption of species assemblages and concurrent stresses associated with potential increases in atmospheric deposition of pollutants, forest fragmentation, and nuisance species. Investigations of links to water and nutrient cycling suggest that changes in evapotranspiration, soil respiration, and mineralization rates could result in significant alterations of key ecosystem processes. Climate change affects the distribution and abundance of many wildlife species in the region through changes in habitat, food availability, thermal tolerances, species interactions such as competition, and susceptibility to parasites and disease. Birds are the most studied northeastern taxa. Twenty-seven of the 38 bird species for which we have adequate long-term records have expanded their ranges predominantly in a northward direction. There is some evidence to suggest that novel species, including pests and

  18. Serious Simulation Role-Playing Games for Transformative Climate Change Education: "World Climate" and "Future Climate"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rooney-Varga, J. N.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.; Jones, A.; Merhi, H.; Hunt, C.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change, its mitigation, and adaption to its impacts are among the greatest challenges of our times. Despite the importance of societal decisions in determining climate change outcomes, flawed mental models about climate change remain widespread, are often deeply entrenched, and present significant barriers to understanding and decision-making around climate change. Here, we describe two simulation role-playing games that combine active, affective, and analytical learning to enable shifts of deeply held conceptions about climate change. The games, World Climate and Future Climate, use a state-of-the-art decision support simulation, C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview and Decision Support) to provide users with immediate feedback on the outcomes of their mitigation strategies at the national level, including global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and concentrations, mean temperature changes, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. C-ROADS outcomes are consistent with the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMS), such as those used by the IPCC, but runs in less than one second on ordinary laptops, providing immediate feedback to participants on the consequences of their proposed policies. Both World Climate and Future Climate role-playing games provide immersive, situated learning experiences that motivate active engagement with climate science and policy. In World Climate, participants play the role of United Nations climate treaty negotiators. Participant emissions reductions proposals are continually assessed through interactive exploration of the best available science through C-ROADS. Future Climate focuses on time delays in the climate and energy systems. Participants play the roles of three generations: today's policymakers, today's youth, and 'just born.' The game unfolds in three rounds 25 simulated years apart. In the first round, only today's policymakers make decisions; In the next round, the young become the policymakers and inherit the

  19. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): Open Access to a Climate Data Store

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thepaut, Jean-Noel; Dee, Dick

    2016-04-01

    In November 2014, The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) signed an agreement with the European Commission to deliver two of the Copernicus Earth Observation Programme Services on the Commission's behalf. The ECMWF delivered services - the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) - will bring a consistent standard to how we monitor and predict atmospheric conditions and climate change. They will maximise the potential of past, current and future earth observations - ground, ocean, airborne, satellite - and analyse these to monitor and predict atmospheric conditions and in the future, climate change. With the wealth of free and open data that the services provide, they will help business users to assess the impact of their business decisions and make informed choices, delivering a more energy efficient and climate aware economy. These sound investment decisions now will not only stimulate growth in the short term, but reduce the impact of climate change on the economy and society in the future. C3S is in its proof of concept phase and through its Climate Data Store will provide • global and regional climate data reanalyses; • multi-model seasonal forecasts; • customisable visual data to enable examination of wide range of scenarios and model the impact of changes; • access to all the underlying data, including climate data records from various satellite and in-situ observations. In addition, C3S will provide key indicators on climate change drivers (such as carbon dioxide) and impacts (such as reducing glaciers). The aim of these indicators will be to support European adaptation and mitigation policies in a number of economic sectors. At the heart of the Service is the provision of open access to a one stop shop (the Climate Data Store) of climate data and modelling, analysing more than 20 Essential Climate Variables to build a global picture of our past, present and future climate and developing

  20. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  1. Conservation planning with uncertain climate change projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kujala, Heini; Moilanen, Atte; Araújo, Miguel B; Cabeza, Mar

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is affecting biodiversity worldwide, but conservation responses are constrained by considerable uncertainty regarding the magnitude, rate and ecological consequences of expected climate change. Here we propose a framework to account for several sources of uncertainty in conservation prioritization. Within this framework we account for uncertainties arising from (i) species distributions that shift following climate change, (ii) basic connectivity requirements of species, (iii) alternative climate change scenarios and their impacts, (iv) in the modelling of species distributions, and (v) different levels of confidence about present and future. When future impacts of climate change are uncertain, robustness of decision-making can be improved by quantifying the risks and trade-offs associated with climate scenarios. Sensible prioritization that accounts simultaneously for the present and potential future distributions of species is achievable without overly jeopardising present-day conservation values. Doing so requires systematic treatment of uncertainties and testing of the sensitivity of results to assumptions about climate. We illustrate the proposed framework by identifying priority areas for amphibians and reptiles in Europe.

  2. The 7 Aarhus Statements on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margrethe Basse, Ellen; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Besenbacher, Flemming; Læssøe, Jeppe; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Lange, Lene

    2009-03-01

    More than 1000 prominent representatives from science, industry, politics and NGOs were gathered in Aarhus on 5-7 March 2009 for the international climate conference 'Beyond Kyoto: Addressing the Challenges of Climate Change'. Thematically, Beyond Kyoto was divided into seven areas of particular interest for understanding the effects of the projected future climate change and how the foreseen negative impacts can be counteracted by mitigation and adaptation measures. The themes were: Climate policy: the role of law and economics; Biodiversity and ecosystems; Agriculture and climate change; Nanotechnology solutions for a sustainable future; Citizens and society, and The Arctic. The main responsible scientists for the seven conference themes and representatives from the think-tank CONCITO delivered 'The 7 Aarhus Statements on Climate Change' as part of the closing session of the conference. The statements were also communicated to the Danish Government as well as to the press. This article is the product of the collective subsequent work of the seven theme responsibles and is a presentation of each theme statement in detail, emphasizing the current state of knowledge and how it may be used to minimize the expected negative impacts of future climate change.

  3. Conservation planning with uncertain climate change projections.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heini Kujala

    Full Text Available Climate change is affecting biodiversity worldwide, but conservation responses are constrained by considerable uncertainty regarding the magnitude, rate and ecological consequences of expected climate change. Here we propose a framework to account for several sources of uncertainty in conservation prioritization. Within this framework we account for uncertainties arising from (i species distributions that shift following climate change, (ii basic connectivity requirements of species, (iii alternative climate change scenarios and their impacts, (iv in the modelling of species distributions, and (v different levels of confidence about present and future. When future impacts of climate change are uncertain, robustness of decision-making can be improved by quantifying the risks and trade-offs associated with climate scenarios. Sensible prioritization that accounts simultaneously for the present and potential future distributions of species is achievable without overly jeopardising present-day conservation values. Doing so requires systematic treatment of uncertainties and testing of the sensitivity of results to assumptions about climate. We illustrate the proposed framework by identifying priority areas for amphibians and reptiles in Europe.

  4. Climate Change and Maize Yield in Iowa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Hong; Twine, Tracy E; Girvetz, Evan

    2016-01-01

    Climate is changing across the world, including the major maize-growing state of Iowa in the USA. To maintain crop yields, farmers will need a suite of adaptation strategies, and choice of strategy will depend on how the local to regional climate is expected to change. Here we predict how maize yield might change through the 21st century as compared with late 20th century yields across Iowa, USA, a region representing ideal climate and soils for maize production that contributes substantially to the global maize economy. To account for climate model uncertainty, we drive a dynamic ecosystem model with output from six climate models and two future climate forcing scenarios. Despite a wide range in the predicted amount of warming and change to summer precipitation, all simulations predict a decrease in maize yields from late 20th century to middle and late 21st century ranging from 15% to 50%. Linear regression of all models predicts a 6% state-averaged yield decrease for every 1°C increase in warm season average air temperature. When the influence of moisture stress on crop growth is removed from the model, yield decreases either remain the same or are reduced, depending on predicted changes in warm season precipitation. Our results suggest that even if maize were to receive all the water it needed, under the strongest climate forcing scenario yields will decline by 10-20% by the end of the 21st century.

  5. How does climate change influence Arctic mercury?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Gary A; Macdonald, Robie W; Outridge, Peter M; Wilson, Simon; Chételat, John; Cole, Amanda; Hintelmann, Holger; Loseto, Lisa L; Steffen, Alexandra; Wang, Feiyue; Zdanowicz, Christian

    2012-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that climate change is already having significant impacts on many aspects of transport pathways, speciation and cycling of mercury within Arctic ecosystems. For example, the extensive loss of sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean and the concurrent shift from greater proportions of perennial to annual types have been shown to promote changes in primary productivity, shift foodweb structures, alter mercury methylation and demethylation rates, and influence mercury distribution and transport across the ocean-sea-ice-atmosphere interface (bottom-up processes). In addition, changes in animal social behavior associated with changing sea-ice regimes can affect dietary exposure to mercury (top-down processes). In this review, we address these and other possible ramifications of climate variability on mercury cycling, processes and exposure by applying recent literature to the following nine questions; 1) What impact has climate change had on Arctic physical characteristics and processes? 2) How do rising temperatures affect atmospheric mercury chemistry? 3) Will a decrease in sea-ice coverage have an impact on the amount of atmospheric mercury deposited to or emitted from the Arctic Ocean, and if so, how? 4) Does climate affect air-surface mercury flux, and riverine mercury fluxes, in Arctic freshwater and terrestrial systems, and if so, how? 5) How does climate change affect mercury methylation/demethylation in different compartments in the Arctic Ocean and freshwater systems? 6) How will climate change alter the structure and dynamics of freshwater food webs, and thereby affect the bioaccumulation of mercury? 7) How will climate change alter the structure and dynamics of marine food webs, and thereby affect the bioaccumulation of marine mercury? 8) What are the likely mercury emissions from melting glaciers and thawing permafrost under climate change scenarios? and 9) What can be learned from current mass balance inventories of mercury in the Arctic? The

  6. Bahamians and Climate Change: An Analysis of Risk Perception and Climate Change Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neely, R.; Owens, M. A.

    2011-12-01

    The Commonwealth of the Bahamas is forecasted to be adversely impacted by the effects of climate change. This presentation will present the results of an assessment of the risk perception toward climate change and climate change literacy among Bahamians. 499 Bahamians from the health care and hospitality industries participated in surveys and/or focus groups and three (3) areas of climate change literacy (attitude, behavior and knowledge) were analyzed as well as risk perception. In general, 1) Bahamians demonstrated an elementary understanding of the underlying causes of climate change, 2) possessed positive attitudes toward adopting new climate change policies, and 3) are already adjusting their behaviors in light of the current predictions. This research also resulted in the development of a model of the relationships between the climate literacy subscales (attitude, behavior and knowledge) and risk perception. This study also examined information sources and their impacts on climate change literacy. As the source of information is important in assessing the quality of the information, participants also identified the source(s) of most of their climate change information. The TV news was cited as the most common source for climate change information among Bahamians. As there is limited active research generating specific climate change information in the Bahamas, all the information Bahamians receive as it pertains to climate change is generated abroad. As a result, Bahamians must decipher through to make sense of it on an individual level. From the focus groups, many of the participants have been able to view possible changes through a cultural lens and are willing to make adjustments to maintain the uniqueness and viability of the Bahamas and to preserve it for generations. Continued study of Bahamians' climate change literacy will inform adaption and mitigation policy as well as individual action.

  7. Responses of large mammals to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hetem, Robyn S; Fuller, Andrea; Maloney, Shane K; Mitchell, Duncan

    2014-01-01

    Most large terrestrial mammals, including the charismatic species so important for ecotourism, do not have the luxury of rapid micro-evolution or sufficient range shifts as strategies for adjusting to climate change. The rate of climate change is too fast for genetic adaptation to occur in mammals with longevities of decades, typical of large mammals, and landscape fragmentation and population by humans too widespread to allow spontaneous range shifts of large mammals, leaving only the expression of latent phenotypic plasticity to counter effects of climate change. The expression of phenotypic plasticity includes anatomical variation within the same species, changes in phenology, and employment of intrinsic physiological and behavioral capacity that can buffer an animal against the effects of climate change. Whether that buffer will be realized is unknown, because little is known about the efficacy of the expression of plasticity, particularly for large mammals. Future research in climate change biology requires measurement of physiological characteristics of many identified free-living individual animals for long periods, probably decades, to allow us to detect whether expression of phenotypic plasticity will be sufficient to cope with climate change.

  8. Green cities, smart people and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansouri Kouhestani, F.; Byrne, J. M.; Hazendonk, P.; Brown, M. B.; Harrison, T.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change will require substantial changes to urban environments. Cities are huge sources of greenhouse gases. Further, cities will suffer tremendously under climate change due to heat stresses, urban flooding, energy and water supply and demand changes, transportation problems, resource supply and demand and a host of other trials and tribulations. Cities that evolve most quickly and efficiently to deal with climate change will likely take advantage of the changes to create enjoyable, healthy and safer living spaces for families and communities. Technology will provide much of the capability to both mitigate and adapt our cities BUT education and coordination of citizen and community lifestyle likely offers equal opportunities to make our cities more sustainable and more enjoyable places to live. This work is the first phase of a major project evaluating urban mitigation and adaptation policies, programs and technologies. All options are considered, from changes in engineering, planning and management; and including a range of citizen and population-based lifestyle practices.

  9. Combat climat change with competetive photovoltaics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ribeyron, P.J.; Sark, W.G.J.H.M. van; Zietek, G.

    2009-01-01

    Photovoltaics (PV) offer a promising solution for CO2 emission reductions and climate change combat. However, before its wide spread on the market, PV needs to find new approaches to make solar cells competitive with respect to conventional electricity sources.

  10. Chikungunya, climate change, and human rights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meason, Braden; Paterson, Ryan

    2014-06-14

    Chikungunya is a re-emerging arbovirus that causes significant morbidity and some mortality. Global climate change leading to warmer temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns allow mosquito vectors to thrive at altitudes and at locations where they previously have not, ultimately leading to a spread of mosquito-borne diseases. While mutations to the chikungunya virus are responsible for some portion of the re-emergence, chikungunya epidemiology is closely tied with weather patterns in Southeast Asia. Extrapolation of this regional pattern, combined with known climate factors impacting the spread of malaria and dengue, summate to a dark picture of climate change and the spread of this disease from south Asia and Africa into Europe and North America. This review describes chikungunya and collates current data regarding its spread in which climate change plays an important part. We also examine human rights obligations of States and others to protect against this disease.

  11. Migration from atolls as climate change adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birk, Thomas Ladegaard Kümmel; Rasmussen, Kjeld

    2014-01-01

    Adaptive strategies are important for reducing the vulnerability of atoll communities to climate change and sea level rise in both the short and long term. This paper seeks to contribute to the emerging discourse on migration as a form of adaptation to climate change based on empirical studies...... in the two atoll communities, Reef Islands and Ontong Java, which are located in the periphery of Solomon Islands. The paper will outline current migration patterns in the two island groups and discuss how some of this migration may contribute to adaptation to climate change and other stresses. It shows...... in adaptation to climate change in exposed atoll communities, addressing some of the barriers to migration seems logical. This may be done by efforts to stimulate migrant income opportunities, by improving migrant living conditions and by improving the transport services to the islands....

  12. Climate change: Carbon losses in the Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirk, Guy

    2016-07-01

    Soil carbon stocks depend on inputs from decomposing vegetation and return to the atmosphere as CO2. Monitoring of carbon stocks in German alpine soils has shown large losses linked to climate change and a possible positive feedback loop.

  13. Economics: Higher costs of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterner, Thomas

    2015-11-01

    An attempt to reconcile the effects of temperature on economic productivity at the micro and macro levels produces predictions of global economic losses due to climate change that are much higher than previous estimates. See Letter p.235

  14. Transportation, Air Pollution, and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Share Facebook Twitter Google+ Pinterest Contact Us Transportation, Air Pollution, and Climate Change Accomplishments & Successes View successes from ... reduce carbon pollution. Carbon pollution from transportation Other Air Pollution Learn about smog, soot, ozone, and other air ...

  15. Climate change and sustainability in Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.

    2001-07-01

    This paper discusses the climate history of the Earth, exploring some of the driving forces of climate change along the way. It points out that it may not be the gradual increase in global mean temperature that we have to fear the most. Rather the variability of the climate may pose an even greater threat to us. The paper outlines some possible future scenarios of climate change based on what we now think we know about the causes of climate change and possible future development in emissions of greenhouse gases. It then goes on to describe the current climate negotiations and possible political solutions in the near term, before concluding with a description of the more long-term fundamental challenges we face. The aim of the discussion is to provide a deeper understanding of the climate problem we are facing, as well as the challenges that lie ahead of us, individually as well as a region, in securing the climate aspect of a sustainable development for Europe and the world. The paper is based on a presentation given at the conference Rio + 10 in Dublin in September 2001, made possible by a kind contribution from the European Environment Agency. (author)

  16. Climate Change and Global Wine Quality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, G.V. [Department of Geography, Southern Oregon University, 1250 Siskiyou Blvd, Ashland, Oregon, 97520 (United States); White, M.A. [Department of Aquatic, Watershed, and Earth Resources, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, 84322 (United States); Cooper, O.R. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences CIRES, University of Colorado/NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, 80305 (United States); Storchmann, K. [Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, 06520 (United States)

    2005-12-01

    From 1950 to 1999 the majority of the world's highest quality wine-producing regions experienced growing season warming trends. Vintage quality ratings during this same time period increased significantly while year-to-year variation declined. While improved winemaking knowledge and husbandry practices contributed to the better vintages it was shown that climate had, and will likely always have, a significant role in quality variations. This study revealed that the impacts of climate change are not likely to be uniform across all varieties and regions. Currently, many European regions appear to be at or near their optimum growing season temperatures, while the relationships are less defined in the New World viticulture regions. For future climates, model output for global wine producing regions predicts an average warming of 2C in the next 50 yr. For regions producing high-quality grapes at the margins of their climatic limits, these results suggest that future climate change will exceed a climatic threshold such that the ripening of balanced fruit required for existing varieties and wine styles will become progressively more difficult. In other regions, historical and predicted climate changes could push some regions into more optimal climatic regimes for the production of current varietals. In addition, the warmer conditions could lead to more poleward locations potentially becoming more conducive to grape growing and wine production.

  17. Atmospheric Composition Change: Climate-Chemistry Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaksen, I.S.A.; Granier, C.; Myhre, G.; Bernsten, T. K.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Gauss, S.; Klimont, Z.; Benestad, R.; Bousquet, P.; Collins, W.; Cox, T.; Eyring, V.; Fowler, D.; Fuzzi, S.; Jockel, P.; Laj, P.; Lohmann, U.; Maione, M.; Monks, T.; Prevot, A. S. H.; Raes, F.; Richter, A.; Rognerud, B.; Schulz, M.; Shindell, D.; Stevenson, D. S.; Storelvmo, T.; Wang, W.-C.; vanWeele, M.; Wild, M.; Wuebbles, D.

    2011-01-01

    Chemically active climate compounds are either primary compounds such as methane (CH4), removed by oxidation in the atmosphere, or secondary compounds such as ozone (O3), sulfate and organic aerosols, formed and removed in the atmosphere. Man-induced climate-chemistry interaction is a two-way process: Emissions of pollutants change the atmospheric composition contributing to climate change through the aforementioned climate components, and climate change, through changes in temperature, dynamics, the hydrological cycle, atmospheric stability, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions, affects the atmospheric composition and oxidation processes in the troposphere. Here we present progress in our understanding of processes of importance for climate-chemistry interactions, and their contributions to changes in atmospheric composition and climate forcing. A key factor is the oxidation potential involving compounds such as O3 and the hydroxyl radical (OH). Reported studies represent both current and future changes. Reported results include new estimates of radiative forcing based on extensive model studies of chemically active climate compounds such as O3, and of particles inducing both direct and indirect effects. Through EU projects such as ACCENT, QUANTIFY, and the AEROCOM project, extensive studies on regional and sector-wise differences in the impact on atmospheric distribution are performed. Studies have shown that land-based emissions have a different effect on climate than ship and aircraft emissions, and different measures are needed to reduce the climate impact. Several areas where climate change can affect the tropospheric oxidation process and the chemical composition are identified. This can take place through enhanced stratospheric-tropospheric exchange of ozone, more frequent periods with stable conditions favouring pollution build up over industrial areas, enhanced temperature-induced biogenic emissions, methane releases from permafrost thawing, and enhanced

  18. Climate change: Time to Do Something Different

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadine ePage

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available There is now very little, if any, doubt that the global climate is changing and that this is in some way related to human behaviour through unsustainable preferences in lifestyle and organisational practices. Despite the near conclusive evidence of the positive relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and global warming, a small proportion of people remain unconvinced. More importantly, even among the much larger number of people who accept a link between human behaviour and climate change, many are inactive, or insufficiently active, in attempting to remedy the situation. We suggest this is partly because people are unaware both of how their day-to-day behaviours connect with energy consumption and carbon emissions, and of the behavioural alternatives that are available to them. This, we believe, is a key reason why individual lifestyles and organisational practices continue in an unsustainable way. We also suggest that the psychologists and behavioural researchers who seek to develop a better understanding of people’s relationship with, and reaction to, environmental issues, might also be on track to suffer a similar blindness. They risk becoming fixed on investigating a limited range of established variables, perhaps to the detriment of alternative approaches that are more practically oriented though, so far, less well explored empirically. In this article, we present the FIT framework as an alternative perspective on the variables that might underpin pro-environmental activity and behaviour change. After briefly reviewing the related literature, we outline that framework. Then we present some early empirical data to show its relationship to a range of pro-environmental indices. We follow with a discussion of the framework’s relevance in relation to pro-environmental behaviour change and make proposals for future research.

  19. Climate Change: Science, Health and the Environment

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2007-04-10

    Climate Change: Science, Health and the Environment Howard Frumkin, MD, DrPH, Director of CDC's National Center for Environmental Health/Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, discusses the science of climate change, the potential for shifts in the natural world to affect our wellbeing, and the challenges of emerging issues in environmental health.  Created: 4/10/2007 by CDC National Center for Environmental Health.   Date Released: 4/13/2007.

  20. Beyond Brainstorming: Exploring Climate Change Adaptation Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfin, Gregg; Jacobs, Katharine; Buizer, James

    2008-06-01

    Climate Change Adaptation for Water Managers; Oracle, Arizona, 4-5 February 2008; The most visible manifestation of climate change in the American Southwest is its effects on water resources. Since 1999, the region's water supplies and major rivers have been tested by burgeoning population growth and drought. Model projections suggest increasing drought severity and duration due to rising temperatures, increased evapotranspiration, and enhanced atmospheric circulation from the tropics (Hadley circulation).