WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate change implications

  1. Andean highlands: Implications of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Seth, Anji; Thibeault, J.M.; García, Magali

    2007-01-01

    This presentation provides background on the SANREM CRSP project "Adapting to Change in the Andean Highlands: Practices and Strategies to Address Climate and Market Risks in Vulnerable Agro-Eco Systems" and discusses the means, variability and projections for the Altiplano climate. available in SANREM office, ESIILTRA-4 (Practices and Strategies for Vulnerable Agro-Ecosystems)

  2. Implications of climate change for tourism in Australia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amelung, B.; Nicholls, S.

    2014-01-01

    This study assesses the impacts of projected climate change on Australia's tourism industry. Based on application of the Tourism Climatic Index, it investigates potential changes in climatic attractiveness for Australia's major destinations, and discusses implications for tourist flows and tourism p

  3. Environmental health implications of global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, Robert T.; Patz, Jonathan; Gubler, Duane J.; Parson, Edward A.; Vincent, James H.

    2005-07-01

    This paper reviews the background that has led to the now almost-universally held opinion in the scientific community that global climate change is occurring and is inescapably linked with anthropogenic activity. The potential implications to human health are considerable and very diverse. These include, for example, the increased direct impacts of heat and of rises in sea level, exacerbated air and water-borne harmful agents, and - associated with all the preceding - the emergence of environmental refugees. Vector-borne diseases, in particular those associated with blood-sucking arthropods such as mosquitoes, may be significantly impacted, including redistribution of some of those diseases to areas not previously affected. Responses to possible impending environmental and public health crises must involve political and socio-economic considerations, adding even greater complexity to what is already a difficult challenge. In some areas, adjustments to national and international public health practices and policies may be effective, at least in the short and medium terms. But in others, more drastic measures will be required. Environmental monitoring, in its widest sense, will play a significant role in the future management of the problem. (Author)

  4. Tertiary Institutions in Ghana Curriculum Coverage on Climate Change: Implications for Climate Change Awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boateng, C. A.

    2015-01-01

    Global problems such as climate change, which have deeper implications for survival of mankind on this planet, needs to be given wider attention in the quest for knowledge. It is expected that, improved knowledge derived from curriculum coverage may promote greater public awareness of such important global issue. This research aims at examining…

  5. Climate change and energy: The implications for the Spanish case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper examines the mutual implications between the climate change problem and the actual energy-at-a-crossroads situation of the unsustainable world energy model. The implications for the Spanish case are studied as a case example. The paper provides a brief review of the scientific evidence on climate change, analyzes the causes of the present energy dilemma and characterizes the problem to be addressed. The principal challenge for the future climate regime is to identify the nature and level of commitment that will provide sufficient incentives for all countries, with such a diversity of interests. The paper also exposes the most plausible framework for the future climate regime, the basic components of such a regime, the role to be played by the major stake holders and some guidelines for future negotiations. (Author)

  6. Climate Change Technology Scenarios: Energy, Emissions, and Economic Implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Placet, Marylynn; Humphreys, Kenneth K.; Mahasenan, N Maha

    2004-08-15

    This report describes three advanced technology scenarios and various illustrative cases developed by staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program. These scenarios and illustrative cases explore the energy, emissions and economic implications of using advanced energy technologies and other climate change related technologies to reduce future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The cases were modeled using the Mini Climate Assessment Model (MiniCAM) developed by PNNL. The report describes the scenarios, the specifications for the cases, and the results. The report also provides background information on current emissions of GHGs and issues associated with stabilizing GHG concentrations.

  7. Conceptualizing Climate Change in the Context of a Climate System: Implications for Climate and Environmental Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Roychoudhury, Anita; Hirsch, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Today there is much interest in teaching secondary students about climate change. Much of this effort has focused directly on students' understanding of climate change. We hypothesize, however, that in order for students to understand climate change they must first understand climate as a system and how changes to this system due to both natural…

  8. Implications of climate change on flow regime affecting Atlantic salmon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The UKCIP02 climate change scenarios (2070–2100 suggest that the UK climate will become warmer (an overall increase of 2.5–3°C, with temperature increases being greater in the summer and autumn than in the spring and winter seasons. In terms of precipitation, winters are expected to become wetter and summers drier throughout the UK. The effect of changes in the future climate on flow regimes are investigated for the Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, in a case study in an upland UK river. Using a hydraulic modelling approach, flows simulated across the catchment are assessed in terms of hydraulic characteristics (discharge per metre width, flow depths, flow velocities and Froude number. These, compared with suitable characteristics published in the literature for various life stages of Atlantic salmon, enable assessment of habitat suitability. Climate change factors have been applied to meteorological observations in the Eden catchment (north-west England and effects on the flow regime have been investigated using the SHETRAN hydrological modelling system. High flows are predicted to increase by up to 1.5%; yet, a greater impact is predicted from decreasing low flows (e.g. a Q95 at the outlet of the study catchment may decrease to a Q85 flow. Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability (RRV analysis provides a statistical indication of the extent and effect of such changes on flows. Results show that future climate will decrease the percentage time the ideal minimum physical habitat requirements will be met. In the case of suitable flow depth for spawning activity at the outlet of the catchment, the percentage time may decrease from 100% under current conditions to 94% in the future. Such changes will have implications for the species under the Habitats Directive and for catchment ecological flow management strategies.

  9. Changes in Köppen-Geiger climate types under a future climate for Australia: hydrological implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. S. Crosbie

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The Köppen-Geiger climate classification has been used for over a century to delineate climate types across the globe. As it was developed to mimic the distribution of vegetation, it may provide a useful surrogate for making projections of the future distribution of vegetation, and hence resultant hydrological implications, under climate change scenarios. This paper developed projections of the Köppen-Geiger climate types covering the Australian continent for a 2030 and 2050 climate relative to a 1990 historical baseline climate using 17 Global Climate Models (GCMs and five global warming scenarios. At the highest level of classification for a +2.4 °C future climate (the upper limit projected for 2050 relative to the historical baseline, it was projected that the area of the continent covered by

    – tropical climate types would increase from 8.8% to 9.1%;
    – arid climate types would increase from 76.5% to 81.7%;
    – temperate climate types would decrease from 14.7% to 9.2%;
    – cold climate types would decrease from 0.016% to 0.001%.

    Previous climate change impact studies on water resources in Australia have assumed a static vegetation distribution. If the change in projected climate types is used as a surrogate for a change in vegetation, then the major transition in climate from temperate to arid in parts of Australia under a drier future climate could cause indirect effects on water resources. A transition from annual cropping to perennial grassland would have a compounding effect on the projected reduction in recharge. In contrast, a transition from forest to grassland would have a mitigating effect on the projected reduction in runoff.

  10. Changes in Köppen-Geiger climate types under a future climate for Australia: hydrological implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. S. Crosbie

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The Köppen-Geiger climate classification has been used for over a century to delineate climate types across the globe. As it was developed to mimic the distribution of vegetation it may provide a useful surrogate for making projections of the future distribution of vegetation, and hence resultant hydrological implications, under climate change scenarios. This paper developed projections of the Köppen-Geiger climate types covering the Australian continent for a 2030 and 2050 climate relative to a 1990 historical baseline climate using 17 Global Climate Models (GCMs and five global warming scenarios. At the highest level of classification for a +2.4 °C future climate (the upper limit projected for 2050 relative to the historical baseline, it was projected that the area of the continent covered by:
    – Tropical climate types would increase from 8.8% to 9.1%
    – Arid climate types would increase from 76.5% to 81.7%
    – Temperate climate types would decrease from 14.7% to 9.2%
    – Cold climate types would decrease from 0.016% to 0.001%.
    Previous climate change impact studies on water resources in Australia have assumed a static vegetation distribution. If the change in projected climate types is used as a surrogate for a change in vegetation, then the major transition in climate from Temperate to Arid in parts of Australia under a drier future climate could cause indirect effects on water resources. For a transition from annual cropping to perennial grassland this would have a compounding effect on the projected reduction in recharge. In contrast, a transition from forest to grassland would have a mitigating effect on the projected reduction in runoff.

  11. Methyl iodide production in the ocean: Implications for climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smythe-Wright, Denise; Boswell, Stephen M.; Breithaupt, Petra; Davidson, Russell D.; Dimmer, Claudia H.; Eiras Diaz, Ledicia B.

    2006-09-01

    Methyl iodide concentrations of up to 45 pmol L-1, which flux into the marine boundary layer, have been found in low latitude waters of the Atlantic and Indian oceans. These high concentrations correlate well with the abundance of Prochlorococcus, and we have confirmed the release of methyl iodide by this species in laboratory culture experiments. Extrapolating, we estimate the global ocean flux of iodine to the marine boundary layer from this single source to be 5.3 × 1011 g I yr-1, which is a large fraction of the previously estimated total global flux and the implications are far reaching. Climate prediction models suggest increases in sea surface temperature and changes in biogeographical provenances in response to global warming. Such changes are likely to increase the abundance of Prochlorococcus, and we estimate a concomitant ˜15% increase in the release of iodine species to the atmosphere. Potentially, this could help mitigate global warming.

  12. Implications of climate change for Pacific Northwest forest management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A Canada/USA symposium was held to identify potential consequences of global climate change to Pacific Northwest forests; to identify the future role and relative contribution of those forests in the balance of carbon, moisture, and energy exchange of the atmosphere; and to develop recommendations for Pacific Northwest forest management strategies and policy options for responding to global climate change. Papers were presented on such topics as regional climatic change, forest responses and processes, public policy on forests and climatic change, sequestration of atmospheric carbon, forest management, and forest adaptation to climatic change. Separate abstracts have been prepared for 14 papers from this symposium

  13. International policy implications of abrupt climate change scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Molitor, M.R.

    1997-12-31

    New theoretical and empirical evidence supports the view that in the recent past [Holocene] abrupt climate changes occurred over very short [decadal] time periods. One leading possibility of future changes involves the North Atlantic Ocean conveyor that transfers warm surface waters from the equator to northern latitudes and helps maintain Europe`s climate. The predicted abrupt climate change scenario theorizes that the conveyor may be modified as a result of disruption of the thermohaline circulation driving North, Atlantic Deep Water. This would lead, the theory contends, to a rapid cooling of Europe`s climate. In light of the EPCC`s 1995 Second Assessment Report conclusion that there is a {open_quotes}discernible{close_quotes} human influence on the global climate system, there are many emerging questions concerning possible abrupt climate change scenarios.

  14. Implications of Climate Change for Children in Developing Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanna, Rema; Oliva, Paulina

    2016-01-01

    Climate change may be particularly dangerous for children in developing countries. Even today, many developing countries experience a disproportionate share of extreme weather, and they are predicted to suffer disproportionately from the effects of climate change in the future. Moreover, developing countries often have limited social safety nets,…

  15. 76 FR 20974 - Implications of Climate Change for Bioassessment Programs and Approaches To Account for Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-14

    ... AGENCY Implications of Climate Change for Bioassessment Programs and Approaches To Account for Effects... Climate Change for Bioassessment Programs and Approaches to Account for Effects'' and its supporting draft... Climate Change for Bioassessment Programs and Approaches to Account for Effects'' and...

  16. Implications of spatial scale on climate change assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pingale Santosh

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available While assessing the effects of climate change at global or regional scales, local factors responsible for climate change are generalized, which results in the averaging of effects. However, climate change assessment is required at a micro-scale to determine the severity of climate change. To ascertain the impact of spatial scales on climate change assessments, trends and shifts in annual and seasonal (monsoon and non-monsoon, rainfall and temperature (minimum, average and maximum were determined at three different spatial resolutions in India (Ajmer city, Ajmer District and Rajasthan State. The Mann–Kendall (MK, MK test with pre-whitening of series (MK–PW, and Modified Mann–Kendall (MMK test, along with other statistical techniques were used for the trend analysis. The Pettitt–Mann–Whitney (PMW test was applied to detect the temporal shift in climatic parameters. The Sen’s slope and % change in rainfall and temperature were also estimated over the study period (35 years. The annual and seasonal average temperature indicates significant warming trends, when assessed at a fine spatial resolution (Ajmer city compared to a coarser spatial resolution (Ajmer District and Rajasthan State resolutions. Increasing trend was observed in minimum, mean and maximum temperature at all spatial scales; however, trends were more pronounced at a finer spatial resolution (Ajmer city. The PMW test indicates only the significant shift in non-monsoon season rainfall, which shows an increase in rainfall after 1995 in Ajmer city. The Kurtosis and coefficient of variation also revealed significant climate change, when assessed at a finer spatial resolution (Ajmer city compared to a coarser resolution. This shows the contribution of land use/land cover change and several other local anthropogenic activities on climate change. The results of this study can be useful for the identification of optimum climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies based on

  17. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathwa

  18. Climate Change and its Implications to National Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rashid

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Climate change is increasingly one of the most serious national security threats which will have significant impacts on natural and coastal resources, ecosystem, human health and settlements, thereby affecting human wellbeing. At the same time, it is likely to influence of large scale human migration, economic and social depression over scarce natural resources and political systems necessary involve an even higher degree of uncertainty. Crucial for action is addressing climate change threats to small island states and states that are least developed, as environmental destabilization may lead to a major economic, environmental and political crisis that may not just affect these states but the world as a whole. Approach: Literatures were identified for review through a comprehensive search by using electronic and non-electronic databases. Related published literature and documents were searched in a systematic way using a range of key words relating to climate change impacts and national security. Results: The literature review indicates that climate change undermine national security dimensions by increasing environmental degradation, resources scarcity, large scale human migration as well as damage of infrastructure. The review also indicate that climate change undermine environmental dimensions by increasing sea level rise, extreme weather events, freshwater scarcity, land degradation and pollution; undermine economic dimensions by reducing access to and the quality of natural resources and human health, in addition to undermine of political dimensions with the possibility of increased environmental refugees, severe storms and failed economics. Conclusion: Reducing climate-induced threats that contributes to national security, there will need to develop an integrated approach in local and national levels and implement sustainable adaptive strategies as well as climate security.

  19. A Common Methodology for Risk Assessment and Mapping of Climate Change Related Hazards—Implications for Climate Change Adaptation Policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Papathoma-Köhle

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014, suggests that an important increase in frequency and magnitude of hazardous processes related to climate change is to be expected at the global scale. Consequently, it is necessary to improve the level of preparedness and the level of public awareness, to fill institutional gaps, and to improve territorial planning in order to reduce the potentially disastrous impact of natural hazards related to climate change. This paper mainly presents a new framework for risk assessment and mapping which enables countries with limited data sources to assess their risk to climate change related hazards at the local level, in order to reduce potential costs, to develop risk reduction strategies, to harmonize their preparedness efforts with neighboring countries and to deal with trans-boundary risk. The methodology is based on the European Commission’s “Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management” (2010 and considers local restrictions, such as a lack of documentation of historic disastrous events, spatial and other relevant data, offering alternative options for risk assessment, and the production of risk maps. The methodology is based on event tree analysis. It was developed within the European project SEERISK and adapted for a number of climate change-related hazards including floods, heat waves, wildfires, and storms. Additionally, the framework offers the possibility for risk assessment under different future scenarios. The implications for climate change adaptation policy are discussed.

  20. Soil transmitted helminthiases: implications of climate change and human behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soil transmitted helminthiases (STH) collectively cause the highest global burden of parasitic disease after malaria and are most prevalent in the poorest communities, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change is predicted to alter the physical environment through cumulative impacts of warmin...

  1. Climate change in context: implications for livestock production and diversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change is predicted increasingly to affect the livestock sector in the coming decades, with potentially harmful consequences for production and for livestock genetic diversity. This paper considers mostly the indirect effects of climate change. It is expected that livestock production systems will face more frequent disastrous events and that higher temperatures will, in the absence of adaptive measures, increase physiological stress in livestock with negative consequences for production. Tropical breeds are often well adapted to high temperatures, but the wider diffusion of such breeds or their incorporation into breeding programmes is restricted by the limited extent to which they have been characterised and improved in structured breeding programmes, trade constraints and the difficulty involved in introducing a new breed if it possesses only one advantageous trait. It is, nonetheless, concluded that given the unpredictability of climate change and of the general development of the livestock sector, conservation of adapted breeds is important. The disruptive effects of climate change on breeds' agro-ecosystems of origin may mean that increasing attention has to be given to ex situ conservation. Exchange mechanisms are needed to ensure that if international transfers of genetic resources are required as part of adaptation strategies, they can take place efficiently and equitably. (author)

  2. Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    The IJOEM

    2010-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathways could stabilise the global average atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) at 450 ppm, the level which has a 50% chance of keeping the temperature rise to 2 oC? What policies are nee...

  3. Implications of and possible responses to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Kahiluoto, Helena; Rötter, Reimund

    2009-01-01

    Climate change is expected to worsen food insecurity and seriously undermines rural development prospects. It makes it harder to achieve the Millenium Development Goals and ensure a sustainable future beyond 2015. Findings from the recent 4th assessment report of IPCC, Working Group II indicate that already towards 2050 with respect to food crops yield losses between 10 and 30 % can be expected as compared to current conditions in large parts of Africa, including Western, Eastern and southern...

  4. The Adaptation Of Ukraine To Climate Change Implications

    OpenAIRE

    Victoria Shtets

    2013-01-01

    The Author considers and analyzes the status of national adaptation plan preparation in Ukraine, its problems and prospects of implementation. She estimates the status of the environment and possible threats in case of inaction and explains the importance of adaptation measures implementation. Mitigation and adaptation actions in case of climate change, which Ukraine has to provide are necessary for Ukrainian economy to enhance its efficiency, competitiveness, and to reduce energy dependence,...

  5. Ocean Biological Pump Sensitivities and Implications for Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanou, Anastasia

    2013-01-01

    The ocean is one of the principal reservoirs of CO2, a greenhouse gas, and therefore plays a crucial role in regulating Earth's climate. Currently, the ocean sequesters about a third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, mitigating the human impact on climate. At the same time, the deeper ocean represents the largest carbon pool in the Earth System and processes that describe the transfer of carbon from the surface of the ocean to depth are intimately linked to the effectiveness of carbon sequestration.The ocean biological pump (OBP), which involves several biogeochemical processes, is a major pathway for transfer of carbon from the surface mixed layer into the ocean interior. About 75 of the carbon vertical gradient is due to the carbon pump with only 25 attributed to the solubility pump. However, the relative importance and role of the two pumps is poorly constrained. OBP is further divided to the organic carbon pump (soft tissue pump) and the carbonate pump, with the former exporting about 10 times more carbon than the latter through processes like remineralization.Major uncertainties about OBP, and hence in the carbon uptake and sequestration, stem from uncertainties in processes involved in OBP such as particulate organicinorganic carbon sinkingsettling, remineralization, microbial degradation of DOC and uptakegrowth rate changes of the ocean biology. The deep ocean is a major sink of atmospheric CO2 in scales of hundreds to thousands of years, but how the export efficiency (i.e. the fraction of total carbon fixation at the surface that is transported at depth) is affected by climate change remains largely undetermined. These processes affect the ocean chemistry (alkalinity, pH, DIC, particulate and dissolved organic carbon) as well as the ecology (biodiversity, functional groups and their interactions) in the ocean. It is important to have a rigorous, quantitative understanding of the uncertainties involved in the observational measurements, the models and the

  6. On the ecohydrologic implications of changing forests, climates and societies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyler, Scott; Wheelock, Shawn; Grant, Gordon; Nadler, Cara; Sladek, Chris; Staudacher, Matt; Young, Dave; Adkins, Paula

    2014-05-01

    Management of forest resources in the 21st century face major challenges in the world as a result of population pressures, changing climate and changing perceptions on the role of forests in ecohydrology. In Mediterranean climates, forest management now significantly strives to reduce fire risk through reduction of fuel loads through the hot and dry summers. However, the impacts of these practices on the ecohydrologic response of forests and their biota show widely varying (in space and time) results. While tree removal at first glance, will decrease evapotranspiration and yield greater water for either runoff or infiltration; secondary impacts such as increased snow translocation/ablation and greater radiation to the snowpack may counteract these changes in the hydrologic budget. In this work, we present detailed soil, water and vegetative monitoring data from two of the most common modern forest management practices (selective thinning and group selection) in California to determine the impacts of these approaches on the annual water and energy budgets. In addition to traditional hydraulic and meteorological measurements, the site utilizes fiber-optic sensing to measure the daily evolution of snow storage, low-cost airborne photogrammetry via drones, simple remote photography, as well as wireless mesh and real time data transmission from the remote site.

  7. Climate change: implications for the yield of edible rice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xiangqian; Fitzgerald, Melissa

    2013-01-01

    Global warming affects not only rice yield but also grain quality. A better understanding of the effects of climate factors on rice quality provides information for new breeding strategies to develop varieties of rice adapted to a changing world. Chalkiness is a key trait of physical quality, and along with head rice yield, is used to determine the price of rice in all markets. In the present study, we show that for every ∼1% decrease in chalkiness, an increase of ∼1% in head rice yield follows, illustrating the dual impact of chalk on amount of marketable rice and its value. Previous studies in controlled growing conditions report that chalkiness is associated with high temperature. From 1980-2009 at IRRI, Los Baños, the Philippines, annual minimum and mean temperatures, and diurnal variation changed significantly. The objective of this study was to determine how climate impacts chalkiness in field conditions over four wet and dry seasons. We show that low relative humidity and a high vapour pressure deficit in the dry season associate with low chalk and high head rice yield in spite of higher maximum temperature, but in the opposite conditions of the wet season, chalk is high and head rice yield is low. The data therefore suggest that transpirational cooling is a key factor affecting chalkiness and head rice yield, and global warming per se might not be the major factor that decreases the amount and quality of rice, but other climate factors in combination, that enable the crop to maintain a cool canopy.

  8. Climate change: implications for the yield of edible rice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangqian Zhao

    Full Text Available Global warming affects not only rice yield but also grain quality. A better understanding of the effects of climate factors on rice quality provides information for new breeding strategies to develop varieties of rice adapted to a changing world. Chalkiness is a key trait of physical quality, and along with head rice yield, is used to determine the price of rice in all markets. In the present study, we show that for every ∼1% decrease in chalkiness, an increase of ∼1% in head rice yield follows, illustrating the dual impact of chalk on amount of marketable rice and its value. Previous studies in controlled growing conditions report that chalkiness is associated with high temperature. From 1980-2009 at IRRI, Los Baños, the Philippines, annual minimum and mean temperatures, and diurnal variation changed significantly. The objective of this study was to determine how climate impacts chalkiness in field conditions over four wet and dry seasons. We show that low relative humidity and a high vapour pressure deficit in the dry season associate with low chalk and high head rice yield in spite of higher maximum temperature, but in the opposite conditions of the wet season, chalk is high and head rice yield is low. The data therefore suggest that transpirational cooling is a key factor affecting chalkiness and head rice yield, and global warming per se might not be the major factor that decreases the amount and quality of rice, but other climate factors in combination, that enable the crop to maintain a cool canopy.

  9. Implications of small modular reactors for climate change mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Achieving climate policy targets will require large-scale deployment of low-carbon energy technologies, including nuclear power. The small modular reactor (SMR) is viewed as a possible solution to the problems of energy security as well as climate change. In this paper, we use an integrated assessment model (IAM) to investigate the evolution of a global energy portfolio with SMRs under a stringent climate policy. Technology selection in the model is based on costs; we use results from previous expert elicitation studies of SMR costs. We find that the costs of achieving a 2 °C target are lower with SMRs than without. The costs are higher when large reactors do not compete for market share compared to a world in which they can compete freely. When both SMRs and large reactors compete for market share, reduction in mitigation cost is achieved only under advanced assumptions about SMR technology costs and future cost improvements. While the availability of SMRs could lower mitigation costs by a moderate amount, actual realization of these benefits would depend on the rapid up-scaling of SMRs in the near term. Such rapid deployment could be limited by several social, institutional and behavioral obstacles. - Highlights: • Costs of achieving a 2 °C target are lower with SMRs than without. • Costs are higher when large reactors do not compete for market share. • Under competition, cost is reduced only with advanced SMR technology. • Realization of benefits will depend on rapid near term up-scaling of SMRs

  10. Implications of climate change for skin cancer prevention in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makin, Jen

    2011-12-01

    It is estimated that nearly 450,000 Australians get skin cancer every year. Ultraviolet (UV) radiation from sunlight has been identified as the cause of more than 95% of skin cancers in Australia. Accordingly, the focus of skin cancer prevention programs is reducing exposure to UV radiation. In Victoria, improvements in sun protection behaviours and reductions in sunburn and melanoma incidence rates among younger people have been observed since the SunSmart program was established in 1988. However, climate change has the potential to undermine these successes. First, surface UVB radiation is dependent on stratospheric total ozone amounts. While signs of impact of international restrictions on the production of ozone-depleting substances have been observed, improvements have not yet returned ozone to pre-1970s levels. Interactions between ozone depletion and climate change may slow the recovery of the ozone layer and compound increases in UV radiation at some latitudes. Before recovery, it is expected that higher levels of UV radiation will continue in most Australian regions, with an associated higher risk of skin cancer. Indeed, recent data show increases in surface UV radiation throughout Australia since the 1970s. Second, mean temperatures in Australia have increased over the past 30 years and are projected to rise further by 2030. Australian data shows that with higher temperatures, adults spend more time outdoors, are less likely to wear covering clothing and more likely to be sunburnt. Hence, rising temperatures can be expected to result in increases in sun exposure, sunburn and correspondingly, skin cancer risk. PMID:22518918

  11. Executive summary: Climate change in the northwest: Implications for our landscapes, waters, and communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalton, Meghan M.; Bethel, Jeffrey; Capalbo, Susan M.; Cuhaciyan, J.E.; Eigenbrode, Sanford D.; Glick, Patty; Houston, Laurie L.; Littell, Jeremy S.; Lynn, Kathy; Mote, Philip W.; Raymondi, Rick R.; Reeder, W. Spencer; Shafer, Sarah L.; Snover, Amy K.

    2013-01-01

    Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities is aimed at assessing the state of knowledge about key climate impacts and consequences to various sectors and communities in the northwest United States. It draws on a wealth of peer-reviewed literature, earlier state-level assessment reports conducted for Washington (2009) and Oregon (2010), as well as a risk-framing workshop. As an assessment, it aims to be representative (though not exhaustive) of the key climate change issues as reflected in the growing body of Northwest climate change science, impacts, and adaptation literature now available. This report will serve as an updated resource for scientists, stakeholders, decision makers, students, and community members interested in understanding and preparing for climate change impacts on Oregon, Washington, and Idaho. This more detailed, foundational report is intended to support the key findings presented in the Northwest chapter of the Third National Climate Assessment.

  12. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, or ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. Climate ...

  13. Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, James E; Sato, Makiko

    2011-01-01

    Paleoclimate data help us assess climate sensitivity and potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods of the past million years was less than 1{\\deg}C warmer than in the Holocene. Polar warmth in these interglacials and in the Pliocene does not imply that a substantial cushion remains between today's climate and dangerous warming, but rather that Earth is poised to experience strong amplifying polar feedbacks in response to moderate global w...

  14. IMPLICATIONS of CLIMATE CHANGE in NEPAL and ELSEWHERE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Meen B. Poudyal Chhetri

    2013-01-01

    气候变化给人类生活和环境带来不利影响,已经成为全世界关注的重要问题。喜马拉雅地区的冰川面积几乎覆盖了33,000 km2,由于气候变化,冰川消退正在加速。随着冰川融化,冰川形成冰川湖的泛滥,导致了洪水和山体滑坡,摧毁了下游的村庄和农作物。这就是13亿人口赖以为生的亚洲9大河流需要防洪的重要原因。在非洲、南太平洋、北极、北美洲、南美洲、欧洲和南极洲,冰川也在消失。过去100 a的世界平均气温比过去10000 a上升得都快。21世纪末,全球平均气温预计将提高1.4~5.8℃。令人担忧的是,引起气候变化和全球变暖的主要原因是人类活动的温室气体排放。特别是,在喜马拉雅地区的气候变暖已经高于全球平均水平,导致降雨增加和减少2个格局的出现。天气模式变得更加变幻莫测--旱季干旱和雨季多雨。这种现象造成了长期供水总量减少,影响长期粮食安全和人民的生命和生计。科学事实证明,由于人为排放的CO2和其他吸热气体,全球变暖正在发生,地球正在迅速变暖。应对气候变化,需采取必要的措施使全球变暖控制在容忍的范围内。决策者必须通过立法实现零碳排放产业的转型,创造有利的市场条件,塑造新的框架变革,执行世界上主要的法律工具“京都议定书”, ;以应对全球变暖。因此,需要共同努力,减少CO2排放量,增加使用可再生能源和实施节约能源措施。%Climate change has become a very serious worldwide concern because of its adverse effects in livelihood and environment. Glaciers are receding rapidly in the Himalayan region which has the major portion of glaciers that cover up almost 33,000 km2. Climate change is the main factor behind accelerated glacier retreat. As glaciers melt, many glaciers form glacial lakes that can break and cause lfoods and

  15. Climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naia Morueta-Holme

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus, which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate, topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070-2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species' range. However, the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably, if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant, G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be

  16. Climate Change Impacts on US Agriculture and Forestry: Implications of Global Climate Stabilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. Although there have been n...

  17. Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    Hansen, James E

    2011-01-01

    Milankovic climate oscillations help define climate sensitivity and assess potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods was less than 1{\\deg}C warmer than in the Holocene. Goals to limit human-made warming to 2{\\deg}C and CO2 to 450 ppm are not sufficient -- they are prescriptions for disaster. Polar warmth in prior interglacials and the Pliocene does not imply that a significant cushion remains between today's climate and dangerous warming, but rather that Earth today is poised to experience strong amplifying polar feedbacks in response to moderate additional warming. Deglaciation, disintegration of ice sheets, is nonlinear, spurred by amplifying feedbacks. If warming reaches a level that forces deglaciation, the rate of sea level rise will depend on the doubling time for ice sheet mass loss. Satellite gravity data, though too brief to be conclusive, are consistent with a doubling time of 10 years or less, implying the possibility of multi-meter sea level r...

  18. Climate Change Implications to Vegetation Production in Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neigh, Christopher S.R.

    2008-01-01

    Investigation of long-term meteorological satellite data revealed statistically significant vegetation response to climate drivers of temperature, precipitation and solar radiation with exclusion of fire disturbance in Alaska. Abiotic trends were correlated to satellite remote sensing observations of normalized difference vegetation index to understand biophysical processes that could impact ecosystem carbon storage. Warming resulted in disparate trajectories for vegetation growth due to precipitation and photosynthetically active radiation variation. Interior spruce forest low lands in late summer through winter had precipitation deficit which resulted in extensive fire disturbance and browning of undisturbed vegetation with reduced post-fire recovery while Northern slope moist alpine tundra had increased production due to warmer-wetter conditions during the late 1990s and early 2000s. Coupled investigation of Alaska s vegetation response to warming climate found spatially dynamic abiotic processes with vegetation browning not a result from increased fire disturbance.

  19. Will Global Climate Change Alter Fundamental Human Immune Reactivity: Implications for Child Health?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashwin Swaminathan

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The human immune system is an interface across which many climate change sensitive exposures can affect health outcomes. Gaining an understanding of the range of potential effects that climate change could have on immune function will be of considerable importance, particularly for child health, but has, as yet, received minimal research attention. We postulate several mechanisms whereby climate change sensitive exposures and conditions will subtly impair aspects of the human immune response, thereby altering the distribution of vulnerability within populations—particularly for children—to infection and disease. Key climate change-sensitive pathways include under-nutrition, psychological stress and exposure to ambient ultraviolet radiation, with effects on susceptibility to infection, allergy and autoimmune diseases. Other climate change sensitive exposures may also be important and interact, either additively or synergistically, to alter health risks. Conducting directed research in this area is imperative as the potential public health implications of climate change-induced weakening of the immune system at both individual and population levels are profound. This is particularly relevant for the already vulnerable children of the developing world, who will bear a disproportionate burden of future adverse environmental and geopolitical consequences of climate change.

  20. Socio-economic changes, social capital and implications for climate change in a changing rural Nepal

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Byg, Anja; Herslund, Lise Byskov

    2016-01-01

    what circumstances people can make use of their ties. The use of different kinds of ties varies with context and is not as clear cut as suggested in the literature. For example families closer to the city are in a better position to take advantage of new opportunities. Using a combination of ties...... people have engaged in high-input agriculture, business and paid employment. Diversification of livelihoods has made many people less sensitive to climate change, but this does not translate into decreased vulnerability for the community. Intensive agriculture and lower community cohesion seems...... unsustainable in the long run. Thus, decreased vulnerability at the household level may come at the price of increased vulnerability at higher levels and negative consequences for the wider social–ecological system. Evaluating vulnerability and the role of social ties depends on the unit and sector of analysis...

  1. Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment in the United States and Implications for Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.

    2012-01-01

    As an integral part of the National Climate Assessment (NCA), technical assessment reports for 13 regions in the U.S. that describe the scientific rationale to support climate change impacts within the purview of these regions, and provide adaptation or mitigation measures in response to these impacts. These technical assessments focus on climate change impacts on sectors that are important environmental, biophysical, and social and economic aspects of sustainability within the U.S.: Climate change science, Ecosystems and biodiversity, Water resources, Human health, Energy supply and use, Water/energy/land use, Transportation, Urban/infrastructure/vulnerability, Agriculture, Impacts of climate change on tribal/indigenous and native lands and resources, Forestry, Land use/land cover change, Rural communities development, and Impacts on biogeochemical cycles, with implications for ecosystems and biodiversity. There is a critical and timely need for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies in response to climate change by the policy and decision making communities, to insure resiliency and sustainability of the built environment in the future.

  2. Implications of the Hidden Spatiotemporal Vulnerability of US Building Energy Demand to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, J.; Gurney, K. R.

    2015-12-01

    Energy consumption in US buildings, accounting for 41% of primary energy consumption in 2010, is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to the direct relationship between space heating/cooling and outside temperature. Past assessments of climate change impacts on building energy consumption have neglected spatial variations in the "balance point" temperature and the extremes at smaller spatiotemporal scales, making the implications of local-scale vulnerability incomplete. Here we develop state-specific empirical relationships between building energy consumption and temperature to explore the vulnerability of building energy supply and demand under climate change. We find increases in summertime electricity demand exceeding 20% and decreases in wintertime non-electric energy demand of more than 30% in some states by the end of the century. When examined annually at the national scale, these extremes are hidden by numerical cancellation. The financial implications vary spatially with increases in total net building energy expenditures in some states (as much as 3 billion/year) while in others, costs decline (as much as 1 billion/year). Integrated across the contiguous US, these variations result in a net savings of roughly 1.4 billion/year. However, this must be weighed against the cost of adding electricity generation capacity ranging from 13.9 billion/year to 52.2 billion/year in order to maintain the electricity grid's reliability in summer. These results have wide implications for climate policy, the social cost of carbon and energy supply planning. It also demonstrates the importance of representing the climate change impacts on energy consumption at scales relevant to human decisions and actions.Energy consumption in US buildings, accounting for 41% of primary energy consumption in 2010, is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to the direct relationship between space heating/cooling and outside temperature. Past assessments of climate change

  3. 180,000 Years of Climate Change in Europe: Avifaunal Responses and Vegetation Implications

    OpenAIRE

    Sandra Ravnsbæk Holm; Jens-Christian Svenning

    2014-01-01

    Providing an underutilized source of information for paleoenvironmental reconstructions, birds are rarely used to infer paleoenvironments despite their well-known ecology and extensive Quaternary fossil record. Here, we use the avian fossil record to investigate how Western Palearctic bird assemblages and species ranges have changed across the latter part of the Pleistocene, with focus on the links to climate and the implications for vegetation structure. As a key issue we address the full-gl...

  4. Global patterns of distribution in stream detritivores: implications for biodiversity loss in changing climates

    OpenAIRE

    Boyero, Luz; Pearson, R G; Dudgeon, D; Ferreira, V.; Graça, M.A.S.; Gessner, M. O.; Boulton, A J; Chauvet, E.; Yule, C.M.; Albariño, R.J.; Ramírez, A.; Helson, J.E.; M. Callisto; M. Arunachalam; Chará, J.

    2012-01-01

    Aim We tested the hypothesis that shredder detritivores, a key trophic guild in stream ecosystems, are more diverse at higher latitudes, which has important ecological implications in the face of potential biodiversity losses that are expected as a result of climate change. We also explored the dependence of local shredder diversity on the regional species pool across latitudes, and examined the influence of environmental factors on shredder diversity. Location World-wide (156 sites from 17 r...

  5. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate......This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...

  6. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  7. Multiple stressors, nonlinear effects and the implications of climate change impacts on marine coastal ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewitt, Judi E; Ellis, Joanne I; Thrush, Simon F

    2016-08-01

    Global climate change will undoubtedly be a pressure on coastal marine ecosystems, affecting not only species distributions and physiology but also ecosystem functioning. In the coastal zone, the environmental variables that may drive ecological responses to climate change include temperature, wave energy, upwelling events and freshwater inputs, and all act and interact at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. To date, we have a poor understanding of how climate-related environmental changes may affect coastal marine ecosystems or which environmental variables are likely to produce priority effects. Here we use time series data (17 years) of coastal benthic macrofauna to investigate responses to a range of climate-influenced variables including sea-surface temperature, southern oscillation indices (SOI, Z4), wind-wave exposure, freshwater inputs and rainfall. We investigate responses from the abundances of individual species to abundances of functional traits and test whether species that are near the edge of their tolerance to another stressor (in this case sedimentation) may exhibit stronger responses. The responses we observed were all nonlinear and some exhibited thresholds. While temperature was most frequently an important predictor, wave exposure and ENSO-related variables were also frequently important and most ecological variables responded to interactions between environmental variables. There were also indications that species sensitive to another stressor responded more strongly to weaker climate-related environmental change at the stressed site than the unstressed site. The observed interactions between climate variables, effects on key species or functional traits, and synergistic effects of additional anthropogenic stressors have important implications for understanding and predicting the ecological consequences of climate change to coastal ecosystems. PMID:26648483

  8. Multiple stressors, nonlinear effects and the implications of climate change impacts on marine coastal ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewitt, Judi E; Ellis, Joanne I; Thrush, Simon F

    2016-08-01

    Global climate change will undoubtedly be a pressure on coastal marine ecosystems, affecting not only species distributions and physiology but also ecosystem functioning. In the coastal zone, the environmental variables that may drive ecological responses to climate change include temperature, wave energy, upwelling events and freshwater inputs, and all act and interact at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. To date, we have a poor understanding of how climate-related environmental changes may affect coastal marine ecosystems or which environmental variables are likely to produce priority effects. Here we use time series data (17 years) of coastal benthic macrofauna to investigate responses to a range of climate-influenced variables including sea-surface temperature, southern oscillation indices (SOI, Z4), wind-wave exposure, freshwater inputs and rainfall. We investigate responses from the abundances of individual species to abundances of functional traits and test whether species that are near the edge of their tolerance to another stressor (in this case sedimentation) may exhibit stronger responses. The responses we observed were all nonlinear and some exhibited thresholds. While temperature was most frequently an important predictor, wave exposure and ENSO-related variables were also frequently important and most ecological variables responded to interactions between environmental variables. There were also indications that species sensitive to another stressor responded more strongly to weaker climate-related environmental change at the stressed site than the unstressed site. The observed interactions between climate variables, effects on key species or functional traits, and synergistic effects of additional anthropogenic stressors have important implications for understanding and predicting the ecological consequences of climate change to coastal ecosystems.

  9. Implications of incorporating air-quality co-benefits into climate change policymaking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We present an analysis of the barriers and opportunities for incorporating air quality co-benefits into climate policy assessments. It is well known that many strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions also decrease emissions of health-damaging air pollutants and precursor species, including particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide. In a survey of previous studies we found a range of estimates for the air quality co-benefits of climate change mitigation of $2- 196/tCO2 with a mean of $49/tCO2, and the highest co-benefits found in developing countries. These values, although of a similar order of magnitude to abatement cost estimates, are only rarely included in integrated assessments of climate policy. Full inclusion of these co-benefits would have pervasive implications for climate policy in areas including: optimal policy stringency, overall costs, distributional effects, robustness to discount rates, incentives for international cooperation, and the value of adaptation, forests, and climate engineering relative to mitigation. Under-valuation results in part from uncertainty in climatic damages, valuation inconsistency, and institutional barriers. Because policy debates are framed in terms of cost minimization, policy makers are unlikely to fully value air quality co-benefits unless they can be compared on an equivalent basis with the benefits of avoided climatic damages. While air quality co-benefits have been prominently portrayed as a hedge against uncertainty in the benefits of climate change abatement, this assessment finds that full inclusion of co-benefits depends on-rather than substitutes for-better valuation of climate damages.

  10. Evidence and implications of recent and projected climate change in Alaska's forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolken, Jane M.; Hollingsworth, Teresa N.; Rupp, T. Scott; Chapin, Stuart III; Trainor, Sarah F.; Barrett, Tara M.; Sullivan, Patrick F.; McGuire, A. David; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Hennon, Paul E.; Beever, Erik A.; Conn, Jeff S.; Crone, Lisa K.; D'Amore, David V.; Fresco, Nancy; Hanley, Thomas A.; Kielland, Knut; Kruse, James J.; Patterson, Trista; Schuur, Edward A.G.; Verbyla, David L.; Yarie, John

    2011-01-01

    The structure and function of Alaska's forests have changed significantly in response to a changing climate, including alterations in species composition and climate feedbacks (e.g., carbon, radiation budgets) that have important regional societal consequences and human feedbacks to forest ecosystems. In this paper we present the first comprehensive synthesis of climate-change impacts on all forested ecosystems of Alaska, highlighting changes in the most critical biophysical factors of each region. We developed a conceptual framework describing climate drivers, biophysical factors and types of change to illustrate how the biophysical and social subsystems of Alaskan forests interact and respond directly and indirectly to a changing climate. We then identify the regional and global implications to the climate system and associated socio-economic impacts, as presented in the current literature. Projections of temperature and precipitation suggest wildfire will continue to be the dominant biophysical factor in the Interior-boreal forest, leading to shifts from conifer- to deciduous-dominated forests. Based on existing research, projected increases in temperature in the Southcentral- and Kenai-boreal forests will likely increase the frequency and severity of insect outbreaks and associated wildfires, and increase the probability of establishment by invasive plant species. In the Coastal-temperate forest region snow and ice is regarded as the dominant biophysical factor. With continued warming, hydrologic changes related to more rapidly melting glaciers and rising elevation of the winter snowline will alter discharge in many rivers, which will have important consequences for terrestrial and marine ecosystem productivity. These climate-related changes will affect plant species distribution and wildlife habitat, which have regional societal consequences, and trace-gas emissions and radiation budgets, which are globally important. Our conceptual framework facilitates

  11. Response of the boreal forest ecosystem to climatic change and its silvicultural implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kellomaeki, S.; Haenninen, H.; Karjalainen, T. [Joensuu Univ. (Finland). Faculty of Forestry] [and others

    1996-12-31

    During the next 100 years, the mean annual temperature is expected to be 1-6 deg C higher than at present. It is also expected to be accompanied by a lengthening of the thermal growing season and increased precipitation. Consequently, climatic change will increase the uncertainty of the management of forest ecosystems in the future. In this context, this research project aimed to outline the ecological and silvicultural implications of climatic change with regard to (1) how the expected climatic change might modify the functioning and structure of the boreal forest ecosystem, and (2) how the silvicultural management of the forest ecosystem should be modified in order to maintain sustainable forest yield under changing climatic conditions. The experimental component of the project concerned first the effect that elevating temperature and elevating concentration of atmospheric carbon have on the ontogenetic development of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L) and on the subsequent increase in frost damage during winter. The second part of the study looked the effect of elevating temperature and elevating concentration of atmospheric carbon on the growth of Scots pine through photosynthesis, respiration, transpiration, nutrient supply, and changes in crown structure. This experiment was utilised in several subprojects of the overall project

  12. Land use changes and its climatic implications in Northern Italy during the Dark Ages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oeggl, Klaus; Oeggl-Wahlmüller, Notburga; Festi, Daniela; Zagermann, Marcus

    2016-04-01

    Here we present an interdisciplinary study on land use changes in Northern Italy at the transition from the Roman Empire to the Early Middle Ages. The combination of archaeological data and high-resolution pollen analyses carried out in the Fiavè basin (Trentino) provide a detailed insight in socio-economic changes and its implications with climate in the Dark Ages. The vegetation in this area is dominated up to 1000 m by submediterranian trees like Fraxinus ornus and Ostrya carpinifolia, superseded by a mixed Fagus and Abies forest with variable amounts of Picea abies. Since 2008 archaeological surveys in the Fiavè basin as well as excavations conducted on a fortified hill-top settlement (castrum) in 985m register the settlement development of this settlement cluster and reveal an almost continuous occupation from Roman to Early Medieval Times. In addition a high-resolution pollen record from a 1.30 m thick peat sequence of the bog "Palude di Fiave" discloses four main phases: (1) in the Late Iron Age high amounts of arboreal pollen and the spread of Abies demonstrate a decrease in settlement activity suggested by wetter climate conditions. (2) During the Roman Empire a phase with arable farming in the basin starts. Olea, Juglans and Castanea sativa are introduced and document the onset of horticulture in this region. (3) After 300 AD - during the Migration Period - the wet and cool conditions have had poor impact on settlement activity. Agricultural (Cerealia) and nitrophilous indicators (Plantago, Chenopodiaceae, Urticaceae) are continuously proved. However a change within the cultivated crops in relation to the climate conditions is observed. Subsequently a progressive recovery of Pinus followed by Abies and Fagus marks the climatic improvement at the beginning of the Early Medieval Times. (4) The time from 600 to 800 AD is characterized by increasing frequency and diversity of anthropogenic-related indicators. The implications of these land use changes with

  13. Sensitivity of Statistical Downscaling Techniques to Reanalysis Choice and Implications for Regional Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzanas, R., Sr.; Brands, S.; San Martin, D., Sr.; Gutiérrez, J. M., Sr.

    2014-12-01

    This work shows that local-scale climate projections obtained by means of statistical downscaling are sensitive to the choice of reanalysis used for calibration. To this aim, a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) approach is applied to downscale daily precipitation in the Philippines. First, the GLMs are trained and tested -under a cross-validation scheme- separately for two distinct reanalyses (ERA-Interim and JRA-25) for the period 1981-2000. When the observed and downscaled time-series are compared, the attained performance is found to be sensitive to the reanalysis considered if climate change signal bearing variables (temperature and/or specific humidity) are included in the predictor field. Moreover, performance differences are shown to be in correspondence with the disagreement found between the raw predictors from the two reanalyses. Second, the regression coefficients calibrated either with ERA-Interim or JRA-25 are subsequently applied to the output of a Global Climate Model (MPI-ECHAM5) in order to assess the sensitivity of local-scale climate change projections (up to 2100) to reanalysis choice. In this case, the differences detected in present climate conditions are considerably amplified, leading to "delta-change" estimates differing by up to a 35% (on average for the entire country) depending on the reanalysis used for calibration. Therefore, reanalysis choice is shown to importantly contribute to the uncertainty of local-scale climate change projections, and, consequently, should be treated with equal care as other, well-known, sources of uncertainty -e.g., the choice of the GCM and/or downscaling method.- Implications of the results for the entire tropics, as well as for the Model Output Statistics downscaling approach are also briefly discussed.

  14. Changes in vegetation in northern Alaska under scenarios of climate change, 2003-2100: implications for climate feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; McGuire, Anthony David; Chapin, F. Stuart, III; Yi, S.; Thompson, Catharine Copass

    2009-01-01

    Assessing potential future changes in arctic and boreal plant species productivity, ecosystem composition, and canopy complexity is essential for understanding environmental responses under expected altered climate forcing. We examined potential changes in the dominant plant functional types (PFTs) of the sedge tundra, shrub tundra, and boreal forest ecosystems in ecotonal northern Alaska, USA, for the years 2003–2100. We compared energy feedbacks associated with increases in biomass to energy feedbacks associated with changes in the duration of the snow-free season. We based our simulations on nine input climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a new version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) that incorporates biogeochemistry, vegetation dynamics for multiple PFTs (e.g., trees, shrubs, grasses, sedges, mosses), multiple vegetation pools, and soil thermal regimes. We found mean increases in net primary productivity (NPP) in all PFTs. Most notably, birch (Betula spp.) in the shrub tundra showed increases that were at least three times larger than any other PFT. Increases in NPP were positively related to increases in growing-season length in the sedge tundra, but PFTs in boreal forest and shrub tundra showed a significant response to changes in light availability as well as growing-season length. Significant NPP responses to changes in vegetation uptake of nitrogen by PFT indicated that some PFTs were better competitors for nitrogen than other PFTs. While NPP increased, heterotrophic respiration (RH) also increased, resulting in decreases or no change in net ecosystem carbon uptake. Greater aboveground biomass from increased NPP produced a decrease in summer albedo, greater regional heat absorption (0.34 ± 0.23 W·m−2·10 yr−1 [mean ± SD]), and a positive feedback to climate warming. However, the decrease in albedo due to a shorter snow season (−5.1 ± 1.6 d/10 yr) resulted in much greater regional heat

  15. Changes in vegetation in northern Alaska under scenarios of climate change, 2003-2100: implications for climate feedbacks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Euskirchen, E S; McGuire, A D; Chapin, F S; Yi, S; Thompson, C C

    2009-06-01

    Assessing potential future changes in arctic and boreal plant species productivity, ecosystem composition, and canopy complexity is essential for understanding environmental responses under expected altered climate forcing. We examined potential changes in the dominant plant functional types (PFTs) of the sedge tundra, shrub tundra, and boreal forest ecosystems in ecotonal northern Alaska, USA, for the years 2003-2100. We compared energy feedbacks associated with increases in biomass to energy feedbacks associated with changes in the duration of the snow-free season. We based our simulations on nine input climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a new version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) that incorporates biogeochemistry, vegetation dynamics for multiple PFTs (e.g., trees, shrubs, grasses, sedges, mosses), multiple vegetation pools, and soil thermal regimes. We found mean increases in net primary productivity (NPP) in all PFTs. Most notably, birch (Betula spp.) in the shrub tundra showed increases that were at least three times larger than any other PFT. Increases in NPP were positively related to increases in growing-season length in the sedge tundra, but PFTs in boreal forest and shrub tundra showed a significant response to changes in light availability as well as growing-season length. Significant NPP responses to changes in vegetation uptake of nitrogen by PFT indicated that some PFTs were better competitors for nitrogen than other PFTs. While NPP increased, heterotrophic respiration (RH) also increased, resulting in decreases or no change in net ecosystem carbon uptake. Greater aboveground biomass from increased NPP produced a decrease in summer albedo, greater regional heat absorption (0.34 +/- 0.23 W x m(-2) x 10 yr(-1) [mean +/- SD]), and a positive feedback to climate warming. However, the decrease in albedo due to a shorter snow season (-5.1 +/- 1.6 d/10 yr) resulted in much greater regional heat

  16. Uncertainties in climate change projections and regional downscaling: implications for water resources management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buytaert, W.; Vuille, M.; Dewulf, A.; Urrutia, R.; Karmalkar, A.; Célleri, R.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is expected to have a large impact on water resources worldwide. A major problem in assessing the potential impact of a changing climate on these resources is the difference in spatial scale between available climate change projections and water resources management. Regional climate

  17. Weather effects on avian breeding performance and implications of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skagen, Susan K; Adams, Amy A Yackel

    2012-06-01

    The influence of recent climate change on the world's biota has manifested broadly, resulting in latitudinal range shifts, advancing dates of arrival of migrants and onset of breeding, and altered community relationships. Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it will likely exacerbate a broad range of identified threats to animal populations. In the past few decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American avifauna, largely due to habitat threats such as the intensification of agriculture. We examine the effects of local climatic variations on the breeding performance of a bird endemic to the shortgrass prairie, the Lark Bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys) and discuss the implications of our findings relative to future climate predictions. Clutch size, nest survival, and productivity all positively covaried with seasonal precipitation; yet relatively intense daily precipitation events temporarily depressed daily survival of nests. Nest survival was positively related to average temperatures during the breeding season. Declining summer precipitation may reduce the likelihood that Lark Buntings can maintain stable breeding populations in eastern Colorado although average temperature increases of up to 3 degrees C (within the range of this study) may ameliorate declines in survival expected with drier conditions. Historic climate variability in the Great Plains selects for a degree of vagility and opportunism rather than strong site fidelity and specific adaptation to local environments. These traits may lead to northerly shifts in distribution if climatic and habitat conditions become less favorable in the drying southern regions of the Great Plains. Distributional shifts in Lark Buntings could be constrained by future changes in land use, agricultural practices, or vegetative communities that result in further loss of shortgrass prairie habitats. PMID:22827123

  18. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on contributions on 120 French and foreign scientists representing different disciplines (mathematics, physics, mechanics, chemistry, biology, medicine, and so on), this report proposes an overview of the scientific knowledge and debate about climate change. It discusses the various indicators of climate evolution (temperatures, ice surfaces, sea level, biological indicators) and the various factors which may contribute to climate evolution (greenhouse gases, solar radiation). It also comments climate evolutions in the past as they can be investigated through some geological, thermal or geochemical indicators. Then, the authors describe and discuss the various climate mechanisms: solar activity, oceans, ice caps, greenhouse gases. In a third part, the authors discuss the different types of climate models which differ by the way they describe processes, and the current validation process for these models

  19. Assessing the Influence of Precipitation on Diurnal Temperature Range Changes: Implications for Climate Change Projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van den Hoof, C.; Garreaud, R.

    2014-12-01

    In this study, we investigate up to what extent the spatial heterogeneity in the projected changes in DTR during the rest of the 21st century (under several emission scenarios) is explained by the regional variability in projected precipitation changes. DTR is indeed a suitable index of climate variability and change [1] and several studies have highlighted the existence of a negative correlation with both the cloud cover and the precipitation rate over land throughout last century [2]. Precipitation reduces DTR mainly by decreasing surface solar radiation through increased cloud cover and by increasing daytime surface evaporative cooling through increased soil moisture content. Whether or not these processes are captured in the current generation of global and regional models is matter of research. To achieve our objective, we make use of the climate projections made available by the CMIP5 project as well as their historical runs, along with reanalysis and station data. At inter-annual timescale, the seasonal mean DTR simulated by an ensemble of CMIP5 models for the last decades shows a negative relationship over land with the simulated precipitation at zero lag. The correlation is globally very strong except during winter at higher latitudes. This corresponds well with the correlations observed in the re-analysis datasets. Some spatial variability in correlation strength is however noticeable between both datasets. Concerning the projected changes, the negative correlation between DTR and precipitation does not hold globally; no correlation or even positive correlations are observed in different climate regions, including Northern South America and Central Europe. Within this study we will further investigate the physical process that could explain this change in correlation sign as well as the reason why positive correlations are rarely observed or simulated at inter-annual timescale under current climate during summer and at lower latitudes during winter. [1] K

  20. Impacts of climate change on forest management and implications for Swedish forestry

    OpenAIRE

    Subramanian, Narayanan

    2016-01-01

    While climate change is expected to increase the growth rates of most tree species in Sweden in the future, during this period, there are also increased risks of tree damage due to various risk factors associated with climate change. Therefore, it is necessary to develop adaptive management measures in order to exploit the benefits of climate change and minimize the damage resulting from these risk factors. In this thesis, the interactive effects of future climate change and various risk fact...

  1. Climatic changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    According to Cleo Paskal climatic changes are environmental changes. They are global, but their impact is local, and manifests them selves in the landscape, in our cities, in open urban spaces, and in everyday life. The landscape and open public spaces will in many cases be the sites where...... measurements to handle climatic changes will be positioned and enacted. Measurements taken are mostly adaptive or aimed to secure and protect existing values, buildings, infrastructure etc., but will in many cases also affects functions, meaning and peoples identification with the landscape and the open urban...... be addressed in order to develop and support social sustainability and identification. This paper explore and discuss how the handling of climatic changes in landscape and open urban spaces might hold a potential for them to become common goods....

  2. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book proposes both a scientific and societal approach of a phenomenon which is today the object of lot of debates. Climates perception is illustrated with examples taken in various modern civilizations and in the history of mankind. The Sahara example illustrates the notion of climate evolution. The last chapters are devoted to forecasting and scenarios for the future, taking into account the share of uncertainty. The controversies generated by these forecasts and the Kyoto protocol stakes demonstrate the tight links between the scientific, economical and political aspects in climatic change debates. (J.S.)

  3. Climate change and hailstorm damage: Empirical evidence and implications for agriculture and insurance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There is much uncertainty about the effects of anthropogenic climate change on the frequency and severity of extreme weather events like hailstorms, and subsequent economic losses, while this is also relevant information for the design of climate policy. Few studies conducted indicate that a strong positive relation exists between hailstorm activity and hailstorm damage, as predicted by minimum temperatures using simple correlations. This relation suggests that hailstorm damage may increase in the future if global warming leads to further temperature increase. This study estimates a range of Tobit models of relations between normalized insured hailstorm damage to agriculture and several temperature and precipitation indicators for the Netherlands. Temporal dynamics are explicitly modelled. A distinction is made between damage costs for greenhouse horticulture and outdoor farming, which appear to be differently affected by variability in weather. 'Out of sample' forecast tests show that a combination of maximum temperatures and precipitation predicts hailstorm damage best. Extrapolations of the historical relations between hailstorm damage and weather indicators under climate change scenarios project a considerable increase in future hailstorm damage. Our estimates show that by 2050 annual hailstorm damage to outdoor farming could increase by between 25% and 50%, with considerably larger impacts on greenhouse horticulture in summer of more than 200%. The economic implications of more hailstorm damage for, and adaptation by, the agricultural and insurance sectors are discussed. (author)

  4. Climate change impacts on water supply: implications for reservoir management in Upper Sabor, northeast Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho-Santos, Claudia; Monteiro, António T.; Azevedo, João; Nunes, João Pedro

    2016-04-01

    Climate change scenarios project warmer temperatures and less precipitation in Mediterranean watersheds. This can aggravate drought conditions, with negative impacts on water supply. Here, reservoirs may play an important role to mitigate these impacts. However, the implications of climate change are not always considered in the reservoir planning and management. This study aimed to address this issue for the Upper Sabor watershed, northeast Portugal. This is a medium watershed (403km2), part of the Sabor river, a tributary of Douro (one of the major rivers in the Iberian Peninsula). It is a mountainous watershed (up to 1500m), characterized by humid Mediterranean climate, with three dry months in summer. Almost 52% of the area is occupied by shrubland and 18% agriculture. Water supply for about 33 000 people has been based almost exclusively in one reservoir, but constant problems of water supply in dry summers, which coincide with a doubling of population due to summer holidays, led to the construction of a new reservoir in 2015. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used for a climate change impact assessment, considering the current water supply regime (single reservoir) and the construction of the new reservoir. SWAT was calibrated and validated against daily-observed discharge and reservoir volume, with a good agreement between model predictions and observations. Results from four GCMs (General Circulation Models) for two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were statistically downscaled and bias-corrected with ground observations; climate scenarios for 2021-2040 and 2041-2060 were compared with a control period in 1981-2000. In the future, a general increase of temperatures is expected in the Upper Sabor watershed, especially in the maximum temperature under RCP 8.5 scenario for 2041-2060 (Tmax: +2.88°C). The change in precipitation is more uncertain, with larger differences according to the selected climate model. Annual precipitation would

  5. Analysis of climate change in Northern Ethiopia: implications for agricultural production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadgu, Gebre; Tesfaye, Kindie; Mamo, Girma

    2015-08-01

    The impact of climatic change can be on specific locations. However, the broader the affected area coverage, in mind, the higher would be the chance in missing critical details. In this light, this paper attempts to assess the possible climatic changes and their corresponding implications on agricultural production in northern Ethiopia. The analysis is based on the future (2030 and 2050) temperature and rainfall data, downscaled as ensemble of four general circulation models (GCMs) using the A2 and B1 emission scenarios for ten meteorological stations located in different agroecological zones of the study region. The result indicates that, based on emission scenarios, the mean maximum and minimum temperature would increase by 2-2.3 and 0.8-0.9 °C in 2030 and by 2.2-2.7 and 1.4-1.7 °C in 2050, respectively. This will be accompanied by an increase in the frequency of hot days and nights and a decrease in cool days and nights. While annual rainfall totals will remain unchanged, main rainy season ( kiremt) rainfall total would increase on average in 12.9 and 14.2 % under A2 and 9.5 and 11.2 % under B1 by 2030 and 2050, respectively. Owing to an increase in kiremt rainfall, the yield of maize and sorghum may increase at some sites under future climatic conditions, and the increase would be higher under CO2 fertilization. The results suggest the need for site-specific adaptation strategies to reduce the impact and/or exploit the opportunities of climate change.

  6. Impacts of Changing Climate on Agricultural Variability: Implications for Smallholder Farmers in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, P.; Jain, M.; DeFries, R. S.; Galford, G. L.; Small, C.

    2013-12-01

    Agriculture is the largest employment sector in India, where food productivity, and thus food security, is highly dependent on seasonal rainfall and temperature. Projected increase in temperature, along with less frequent but intense rainfall events, will have a negative impact on crop productivity in India in the coming decades. These changes, along with continued ground water depletion, could have serious implications for Indian smallholder farmers, who are among some of the most vulnerable communities to climatic and economic changes. Hence baseline information on agricultural sensitivity to climate variability is important for strategies and policies that promote adaptation to climate variability. This study examines how cropping patterns in different agro-ecological zones in India respond to variations in precipitation and temperature. We specifically examine: a) which climate variables most influence crop cover for monsoon and winter crops? and b) how does the sensitivity of crop cover to climate variability vary in different agro-ecological regions with diverse socio-economic factors? We use remote sensing data (2000-01 - 2012-13) for cropping patterns (developed using MODIS satellite data), climate parameters (derived from MODIS and TRMM satellite data) and agricultural census data. We initially assessed the importance of these climate variables in two agro-ecoregions: a predominantly groundwater irrigated, cash crop region in western India, and a region in central India primarily comprised of rain-fed or surface water irrigated subsistence crops. Seasonal crop cover anomaly varied between -25% and 25% of the 13-year mean in these two regions. Predominantly climate-dependent region in central India showed high anomalies up to 200% of the 13-year crop cover mean, especially during winter season. Winter daytime mean temperature is overwhelmingly the most important climate variable for winter crops irrespective of the varied biophysical and socio

  7. Implications of land ecosystem-atmosphere interactions for strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Betts, Richard

    2011-01-01

    The standard approach to predicting climate change, assessing its impacts and planning mitigation strategies tends to be compartmentalized, leading to inadequate or incomplete advice for climate policy. Climate models used for future global warming predictions and attribution of past changes generally consider only global climate drivers, ignoring local drivers, such as land use change and urban effects. Impacts studies are generally carried out in isolation from each other and hence ignore i...

  8. Climate change in the four corners and adjacent regions: Implications for environmental restoration and land-use planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waugh, W.J. [ed.

    1995-09-01

    This document contains the workshop proceedings on Climate Change in the Four Corners and Adjacent Regions: Implications for Environmental Restoration and Land-Use Planning which took place September 12-14, 1994 in Grand Junction, Colorado. The workshop addressed three ways we can use paleoenvironmental data to gain a better understanding of climate change and its effects. (1) To serve as a retrospective baseline for interpreting past and projecting future climate-induced environmental change, (2) To differentiate the influences of climate and humans on past environmental change, and (3) To improve ecosystem management and restoration practices in the future. The papers presented at this workshop contained information on the following subjects: Paleoclimatic data from the Pleistocene and Holocene epochs, climate change and past cultures, and ecological resources and environmental restoration. Selected papers are indexed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database.

  9. Comparative analysis of climate change policy in a trans-Atlantic perspective, The implications of level of governance regarding climate change mitigation effectiveness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Taminiau, Job

    2010-01-01

    The United States and the European Union address climate change in a fundamentally different manner. The US seems uninterested to address climate change from a federal level, but individual states within the US are definitely moving forward with climate c

  10. Universal Spectrum for Natural Variability of Climate Implications for Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    Pethkar, J S

    2001-01-01

    The apparantly irregular (unpredictable) space-time fluctuations in atmospheric flows ranging from climate (thousands of kilometers - years) to turbulence (millimeters - seconds) exhibit the universal symmetry of self-similarity. Self-similarity or scale invariance implies long-range spatiotemporal correlations and is manifested in atmospheric flows as the fractal geometry to spatial pattern concomitant with inverse power-law form for power spectra of temporal fluctuations. Long-range spatiotemporal correlations are ubiquitous to dynamical systems in nature and are identified as signatures of self-organized criticality. Standard meteorological theory cannot explain satisfactorily the observed self-organized criticality. Numerical models for simulation and prediction of atmospheric flows are subject to deterministic chaos and give unrealistic solutions. Deterministic chaos is a direct consequence of round-off error growth in iterative computations. Round-off error of finite precision computations doubles on an...

  11. Diverse policy implications for future ozone and surface UV in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, A. H.; Daniel, J. S.; Portmann, R. W.; Ravishankara, A. R.; Young, P. J.; Fahey, D. W.; Rosenlof, K. H.

    2016-06-01

    Due to the success of the Montreal Protocol in limiting emissions of ozone-depleting substances, concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane will control the evolution of total column and stratospheric ozone by the latter half of the 21st century. As the world proceeds down the path of reducing climate forcing set forth by the 2015 Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 21), a broad range of ozone changes are possible depending on future policies enacted. While decreases in tropical stratospheric ozone will likely persist regardless of the future emissions scenario, extratropical ozone could either remain weakly depleted or even increase well above historical levels, with diverse implication for ultraviolet (UV) radiation. The ozone layer’s dependence on future emissions of these gases creates a complex policy decision space for protecting humans and ecosystems, which includes unexpected options such as accepting nitrous oxide emissions in order to maintain historical column ozone and surface UV levels.

  12. Climate change and the Canadian energy sector: implications for labour and trade unions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calvert, John; Griffin Cohen, Marjorie [Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (Canada)

    2011-10-15

    With the increasing concerns about global warming, Canada will have to deal with greenhouse gas emissions in the coming years. However, tackling climate change with public policy will affect Canada's economy. The aim of this paper is to explore the implications that a shift from oil and gas energy production to renewable energy would have on the economy. A review of the literature on employment in the energy sector was carried out for the purposes of the study. In the authors' view, this shift would not create that many jobs since employment in the unconventional oil and gas sectors in Canada is expected to grow and jobs in the renewable sector are not so different from those in traditional energy sectors. This paper highlighted the need for government and civil society to play strong roles in developing an energy policy which addresses global warming since the industries are focused on delivering outcomes they want, rather than on mitigating climate change.

  13. Awareness of Climate Change and Implications for Attaining the Millennium Development Goals (MDGS in Niger Delta Region of Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. O. Ajayi

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The Niger Delta region of Nigeria is at the centre of both the economic wealth and climate change in the context of pressing national economic issues. It produces the nation’s major foreign exchange earner- crude oil, has abundant fishery and marine resources- all of which are threatened by vagaries in climatic factors. The study was conducted to evaluate awareness of climate change and implications for attaining the MDGs in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. The study made use of a multi-stage sampling technique to select three hundred and sixty respondents across three Niger Delta States (Delta, Edo, Ondo. Data for the study were collected with the aid of well-structured questionnaires assisted with interview schedules administered on the respondents. Data collected were analysed using descriptive statistics. The analysis of awareness of climate change indicated that level of awareness is low but improving. It was found, however, that the mass media has played the most significant roles in climate change awareness in the study area. The results also indicated that the respondents had been practicing some indigenous and emerging adaptive strategies to climate change for many years. This study concluded that more awareness about climate change in the Niger Delta region have implications for attaining the MDGs.

  14. Climate change & infectious diseases in India: implications for health care providers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhara, V Ramana; Schramm, Paul J; Luber, George

    2013-12-01

    Climate change has the potential to influence the earth's biological systems, however, its effects on human health are not well defined. Developing nations with limited resources are expected to face a host of health effects due to climate change, including vector-borne and water-borne diseases such as malaria, cholera, and dengue. This article reviews common and prevalent infectious diseases in India, their links to climate change, and how health care providers might discuss preventive health care strategies with their patients.

  15. Economy-Wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change: Human Health

    OpenAIRE

    Bosello, Francesco; Roson, Roberto; Tol, Richard S. J.

    2005-01-01

    We use an updated and extended version of the Hamburg Tourism Model to simulate the effect of development and climate change on tourism. Models extensions are the explicit modelling of domestic tourism, and the inclusion of tourist expenditures. Climate change would shift patterns of tourism towards higher altitudes and latitudes. Domestic tourism may double in colder countries and fall by 20% in warmer countries (relative to the baseline without climate change). For some countries internatio...

  16. Eco-evolutionary responses of Bromus tectorum to climate change: implications for biological invasions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelikova, Tamara J.; Hufbauer, Ruth A.; Reed, Sasha C.; Wertin, Timothy M.; Fettig, Christa; Belnap, Jayne

    2013-01-01

    How plant populations, communities, and ecosystems respond to climate change is a critical focus in ecology today. The responses of introduced species may be especially rapid. Current models that incorporate temperature and precipitation suggest that future Bromus tectorum invasion risk is low for the Colorado Plateau. With a field warming experiment at two sites in southeastern Utah, we tested this prediction over 4 years, measuring B. tectorum phenology, biomass, and reproduction. In a complimentary greenhouse study, we assessed whether changes in field B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output influence offspring performance. We found that following a wet winter and early spring, the timing of spring growth initiation, flowering, and summer senescence all advanced in warmed plots at both field sites and the shift in phenology was progressively larger with greater warming. Earlier green-up and development was associated with increases in B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output, likely due early spring growth, when soil moisture was not limiting, and a lengthened growing season. Seeds collected from plants grown in warmed plots had higher biomass and germination rates and lower mortality than seeds from ambient plots. However, in the following two dry years, we observed no differences in phenology between warmed and ambient plots. In addition, warming had a generally negative effect on B. tectorum biomass and reproduction in dry years and this negative effect was significant in the plots that received the highest warming treatment. In contrast to models that predict negative responses of B. tectorum to warmer climate on the Colorado Plateau, the effects of warming were more nuanced, relied on background climate, and differed between the two field sites. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, and site-specific characteristics such as soil texture, on plant demography and have direct

  17. Wildlife management in Gonarezhou National Park, southeast Zimbabwe: Climate change and implications for management

    OpenAIRE

    Gandiwa, E.; Zisadza, P.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is not a new phenomenon; the only constant about climate throughout Earth’s history is that it has changed (Marchant, 2010). An earlier study in Africa indicated that some Southern African ecosystems are highly sensitive to climate change (e.g., Magadza, 1994). Climate change in Africa is expected to lead to higher occurrence of severe droughts in semiarid and arid ecosystems (Foley et al., 2008). For instance, a severe drought associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation p...

  18. Climate change and energy: The implications for the Spanish case; Cambio Climatico y Energia: Impliacaciones reciprocas en el caso Espanol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perez Arriaga, J. I.

    2007-07-01

    This paper examines the mutual implications between the climate change problem and the actual energy-at-a-crossroads situation of the unsustainable world energy model. The implications for the Spanish case are studied as a case example. The paper provides a brief review of the scientific evidence on climate change, analyzes the causes of the present energy dilemma and characterizes the problem to be addressed. The principal challenge for the future climate regime is to identify the nature and level of commitment that will provide sufficient incentives for all countries, with such a diversity of interests. The paper also exposes the most plausible framework for the future climate regime, the basic components of such a regime, the role to be played by the major stake holders and some guidelines for future negotiations. (Author)

  19. Late Quaternary climate-change velocity: Implications for modern distributions and communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandel, Brody Steven; Dalsgaard, Bo; Arge, Lars Allan;

    conditions are wet, productive and aseasonal. In general, climate-change velocity since the LGM appears to explain a wide variety of phenomena in the modern distributions of species and structure of communities, and we propose that its applications could be quite wide. Understanding the role of historical...... rate required to track changing conditions and explicitly capturing the buffering effect of topography on climate change. Variation in climate stability has long been hypothesized as a possible driver of large-scale ecological patterns including diversity and range size gradients. We calculated...... a global map of climate-change velocity since the Last Glacial Maximum and used this measure of climate instability to address a number of classic hypotheses. Results/Conclusions We show that historical climate-change velocity is related to a wide range of characteristics of modern distributions...

  20. Climate Change In The Fertile Crescent And Implications Of The Recent Drought In Syria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, C. P.; Mohtadi, S.; Cane, M. A.; Seager, R.; Kushnir, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Prior to the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system.

  1. Economic and labour market implications of climate change on the tourism sector of the Maltese Islands

    OpenAIRE

    Jones, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    This paper reviews threats to, and consequences of, current climate and environmental change on tourism destinations. The paper reviews recent published research on the impacts of climate and environmental change and consequences of such on the physical social and economic character of tourism operations using the Maltese Islands as a case. The validity and practicality of management options to tackle the complex nature and juxtaposition between tourism growth, climate...

  2. Health risks of climate change: An assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaption policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wardekker, J.A.; de Jong, A.; van Bree, L.; Turkenburg, W.C.; van der Sluijs, J.P.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. Methods: We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type

  3. Social Implications of Climate Change in Latin America and the Caribbean

    OpenAIRE

    Verner, Dorte

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is the defining development challenge of our time. More than a global environmental issue, climate change is also a threat to poverty reduction and economic growth and may unravel many of the development gains made in recent decades. Latin America and the Caribbean account for a relatively modest twelve percent of the world's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but communities a...

  4. The role of sea-level rise and the Greenland ice sheet in dangerous climate change: implications for the stabilisation of climate

    OpenAIRE

    Lowe, J A; J. M. Gregory; J. Ridley; Huybrechts, Philippe; Nicholls, R J; Collins, M.

    2006-01-01

    Sea level rise is an important aspect of future climate change because, without upgraded coastal defences, it is likely to lead to significant impacts. Here we report on two aspects of sea-level rise that have implications for the avoidance of dangerous climate change and stabilisation of climate. If the Greenland ice sheet were to melt it would raise global sea levels by around 7m. We discuss the likelihood of such an event occurring in the coming centuries. We also examine the time scales a...

  5. 180,000 years of climate change in Europe: avifaunal responses and vegetation implications.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Ravnsbæk Holm

    Full Text Available Providing an underutilized source of information for paleoenvironmental reconstructions, birds are rarely used to infer paleoenvironments despite their well-known ecology and extensive Quaternary fossil record. Here, we use the avian fossil record to investigate how Western Palearctic bird assemblages and species ranges have changed across the latter part of the Pleistocene, with focus on the links to climate and the implications for vegetation structure. As a key issue we address the full-glacial presence of trees in Europe north of the Mediterranean region, a widely debated issue with evidence for and against emerging from several research fields and data sources. We compiled and analyzed a database of bird fossil occurrences from archaeological sites throughout the Western Palearctic and spanning the Saalian-Eemian-Weichselian stages, i.e. 190,000-10,000 years BP. In general, cold and dry-adapted species dominated these late Middle Pleistocene and Late Pleistocene fossil assemblages, with clear shifts of northern species southwards during glacials, as well as northwards and westwards shifts of open-vegetation species from the south and east, respectively and downwards shifts of alpine species. A direct link to climate was clear in Northwestern Europe. However, in general, bird assemblages more strongly reflected vegetation changes, underscoring their usefulness for inferring the vegetation structure of past landscapes. Forest-adapted birds were found in continuous high proportions throughout the study period, providing support for the presence of trees north of the Alps, even during full-glacial stages. Furthermore, the results suggest forest-dominated but partially open Eemian landscapes in the Western Palearctic, including the Northwestern European subregion.

  6. Water and heat transport in boreal soils: Implications for soil response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Z.; Neff, J.C.; Harden, J.W.; Zhang, T.; Veldhuis, H.; Czimczik, C.I.; Winston, G.C.; O'Donnell, J. A.

    2011-01-01

    Soil water content strongly affects permafrost dynamics by changing the soil thermal properties. However, the movement of liquid water, which plays an important role in the heat transport of temperate soils, has been under-represented in boreal studies. Two different heat transport models with and without convective heat transport were compared to measurements of soil temperatures in four boreal sites with different stand ages and drainage classes. Overall, soil temperatures during the growing season tended to be over-estimated by 2-4??C when movement of liquid water and water vapor was not represented in the model. The role of heat transport in water has broad implications for site responses to warming and suggests reduced vulnerability of permafrost to thaw at drier sites. This result is consistent with field observations of faster thaw in response to warming in wet sites compared to drier sites over the past 30. years in Canadian boreal forests. These results highlight that representation of water flow in heat transport models is important to simulate future soil thermal or permafrost dynamics under a changing climate. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

  7. Catastrophic ecosystem shifts in dry tropical forest: evidence, mechanisms and implications for climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, D.; D'Odorico, P.; Runyan, C.; Diekmann, L.; DeLonge, M. S.; Das, R.; Eaton, J.; Vandecar, K.; Schmook, B.

    2015-12-01

    Tropical dry forests have long been used by humans. Has it been sustainable? Not in the southern Yucatan. Biomass accumulation declines with each cycle of shifting cultivation with implications for both internal recycling of nutrients and external inputs of nutrients. We detail the evidence for a decline in P inputs from biomass burning (aboveground biomass, litter, and coarse woody debris), an increase in leaching losses from deep soils, and a decline in atmospheric inputs of new P from Saharan dust following the transition from mature to secondary forest. Canopy trapping of dust is critical to maintaining P balance in this system. Effective trapping is diminished by changes in the structure of secondary forest--loss of height, leaf area and basal area. Experimental studies show that it is atmospheric transport of dust, not microbial shedding or leaching from live tissues, that explains the difference between throughfall P and P in bulk deposition. Because of net losses in P, uptake of carbon during regrowth is slower with each cycle of shifting cultivation. As much of the tropics has moved beyond a mature forest frontier, the decline in carbon sequestration is likely widespread over both dry and wet forests. The terrestrial carbon sink in the tropics may be declining. The capacity to sequester carbon through afforestation, reforestation and restoration has certainly diminished over time, limiting the effectiveness of such efforts to help mitigate climate change.

  8. Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

    OpenAIRE

    Mondal, A.; P. P. Mujumdar

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand ...

  9. Knowledge systems in upland farming practices in the Philippines and implications for climate change adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Espaldon, Maria Victoria O.

    2008-01-01

    The paper focuses on the importance of multiple knowledge systems on enhancing the adaptive capacity of farming communities in the Philippines. It discusses the epistemologies of knowledge that are pertinent to strengthen the resilience of small farmers and farming households, who are one of the most vulnerable groups in the event of climatic variabilities, climatic extremes and climate change. It also brings to the discussion the need for effective communication systems to disseminate the kn...

  10. Uncertainty in the response of transpiration to CO2 and implications for climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Mengis, Nadine; Keller, David P.; M. Eby; Oschlies, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    While terrestrial precipitation is a societally highly relevant climate variable, there is little consensus among climate models about its projected 21st century changes. An important source of precipitable water over land is plant transpiration. Plants control transpiration by opening and closing their stomata. The sensitivity of this process to increasing CO2 concentrations is uncertain. To assess the impact of this uncertainty on future climate, we perform experiments with an intermediate ...

  11. Flow regime alterations under changing climate in two river basins: Implications for freshwater ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, C.A.; Meyer, J.L.; Poff, N.L.; Hay, L.E.; Georgakakos, A.

    2005-01-01

    We examined impacts of future climate scenarios on flow regimes and how predicted changes might affect river ecosystems. We examined two case studies: Cle Elum River, Washington, and Chattahoochee-Apalachicola River Basin, Georgia and Florida. These rivers had available downscaled global circulation model (GCM) data and allowed us to analyse the effects of future climate scenarios on rivers with (1) different hydrographs, (2) high future water demands, and (3) a river-floodplain system. We compared observed flow regimes to those predicted under future climate scenarios to describe the extent and type of changes predicted to occur. Daily stream flow under future climate scenarios was created by either statistically downscaling GCMs (Cle Elum) or creating a regression model between climatological parameters predicted from GCMs and stream flow (Chattahoochee-Apalachicola). Flow regimes were examined for changes from current conditions with respect to ecologically relevant features including the magnitude and timing of minimum and maximum flows. The Cle Elum's hydrograph under future climate scenarios showed a dramatic shift in the timing of peak flows and lower low flow of a longer duration. These changes could mean higher summer water temperatures, lower summer dissolved oxygen, and reduced survival of larval fishes. The Chattahoochee-Apalachicola basin is heavily impacted by dams and water withdrawals for human consumption; therefore, we made comparisons between pre-large dam conditions, current conditions, current conditions with future demand, and future climate scenarios with future demand to separate climate change effects and other anthropogenic impacts. Dam construction, future climate, and future demand decreased the flow variability of the river. In addition, minimum flows were lower under future climate scenarios. These changes could decrease the connectivity of the channel and the floodplain, decrease habitat availability, and potentially lower the ability

  12. Uncertainties in climate change projections and regional downscaling: implications for water resources management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Buytaert

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to have a large impact on water resources worldwide. A major problem in assessing the potential impact of a changing climate on these resources is the difference in spatial scale between available climate change projections and water resources management. Regional climate models (RCMs are often used for the spatial disaggregation of the outputs of global circulation models. However, RCMs are time-intensive to run and typically only a small number of model runs is available for a certain region of interest. This paper investigates the value of the improved representation of local climate processes by a regional climate model for water resources management in the tropical Andes of Ecuador. This region has a complex hydrology and its water resources are under pressure. Compared to the IPCC AR4 model ensemble, the regional climate model PRECIS does indeed capture local gradients better than global models, but locally the model is prone to large discrepancies between observed and modelled precipitation. It is concluded that a further increase in resolution is necessary to represent local gradients properly. Furthermore, to assess the uncertainty in downscaling, an ensemble of regional climate models should be implemented. Finally, translating the climate variables to streamflow using a hydrological model constitutes a smaller but not negligible source of uncertainty.

  13. Modeling the prospects for climatic change: current state-of-the-art and implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kellogg, W. M.

    1980-04-04

    It has been increasingly suggested that the world's climate is going to change in the next several decades, primarily as a result of anthropogenic perturbations to the global carbon cycle brought about by fossil fuel burning and large-scale deforestation. In order to cope with these future climatic changes, it is necessary that tools be developed to predict how complex systems respond to a given change of conditions. This report summarizes the status of our ability to model the planetary system that determines the climate. (ACR)

  14. Non-linearity dynamics in ecosystem response to climate change: Case studies and policy implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, V.R.; Wilcox, D.A.; Stottlemyer, R.; Barrow, W.; Fagre, D.; Baron, J.; Nielsen, J.L.; Allen, C.D.; Peterson, D.L.; Ruggerone, G.; Doyle, T.

    2005-01-01

    Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate cna lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear.

  15. Climate Change in the High Andes:implications and adaptation strategies for small-scale farmers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perez, C.; Nicklin, C.; Dangles, O.; Vanek, S.; Sherwood, S.G.; Halloy, S.; Garrett, K.A.; Forbes, G.A.

    2010-01-01

    Abstract: Global climate change represents a major threat to sustainable farming in the Andes. Farmers have used local ecological knowledge and intricate production systems to cope, adapt and reorganize to meet climate uncertainty and risk, which have always been a fact of life. Those traditional sy

  16. Implications for global climate change from microbially-produced acid mine drainage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norlund, K. L.; Hitchcock, A. P.; Warren, L. A.

    2009-05-01

    Microbial catalysis of sulphur cycling in acid mine drainage (AMD) environments is well known but the reaction pathways are poorly characterised. These reaction pathways involve both acid-consuming and acid- generating steps, with important consequences for overall AMD production as well as sulphur and carbon global biogeochemical cycles. Mining-associated sulphuric acid has been implicated in climate change through the weathering of carbonate minerals resulting in the release of 29 Tg C/year as carbon dioxide. Understanding of microbial AMD generation is based predominantly on studies of Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans despite the knowledge that other environmentally common strains of bacteria are also active sulphur oxidizers and that microbial consortia are likely very important in environmental processes. Using an integrated experimental approach including geochemical experimentation, scanning transmission X-ray microscopy (STXM) and fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH), we document a novel syntrophic sulphur metabolism involving two common mine bacteria: autotrophic sulphur oxidizing Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans and heterotrophic Acidiphilium spp. The proposed sulphur geochemistry associated with this bacterial consortium produces 40-90% less acid than expected based on abiotic AMD models, with significant implications for both AMD mitigation and AMD carbon flux modelling. The two bacterial strains are specifically spatially segregated within a macrostructure of extracellular polymeric substance (EPS) that provides the necessary microgeochemical conditions for coupled sulphur oxidation and reduction reactions. STXM results identify multiple sulphur oxidation states associated with the pods, indicating that they are the sites of active sulphur disproportionation and recycling. Recent laboratory experimentation using type culture strains of the bacteria involved in pod-formation suggesting that this phenomenon is likely to be widespread in environments

  17. Review of economic and energy sector implications of adopting global climate change policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Novak, M.H.

    1997-12-31

    This paper summarizes a number of studies examining potential economic impacts of global climate change policies. Implications for the United States as a whole, the U.S. energy sector, the U.S. economy, businesses and consumers, and world economies are considered. Impact assessments are performed of U.S. carbon emissions, carbon taxes, and carbon restrictions by comparing estimates from various organizations. The following conclusions were made from the economic studies: (1) the economic cost of carbon abatement is expensive; (2) the cost of unilateral action is very expensive with little quantifiable evidence that global emissions are reduced; (3) multilateral actions of developed countries are also very expensive, but there is quantifiable evidence of global emissions reductions; and (4) global actions have only been theoretically addressed. Paralleling these findings, the energy analyses show that the U.S. is technologically unprepared to give up fossil fuels. As a result: (1) carbon is not stabilized without a high tax, (2) stabilization of carbon is elusive, (3) technology is the only long-term answer, and (4) targeted programs may be appropriate to force technology development. 8 tabs.

  18. Uncertainty in the response of transpiration to CO2 and implications for climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    While terrestrial precipitation is a societally highly relevant climate variable, there is little consensus among climate models about its projected 21st century changes. An important source of precipitable water over land is plant transpiration. Plants control transpiration by opening and closing their stomata. The sensitivity of this process to increasing CO2 concentrations is uncertain. To assess the impact of this uncertainty on future climate, we perform experiments with an intermediate complexity Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) for a range of model-imposed transpiration-sensitivities to CO2. Changing the sensitivity of transpiration to CO2 causes simulated terrestrial precipitation to change by −10% to +27% by 2100 under a high emission scenario. This study emphasises the importance of an improved assessment of the dynamics of environmental impact on vegetation to better predict future changes of the terrestrial hydrological and carbon cycles. (letter)

  19. Uncertainty in the response of transpiration to CO2 and implications for climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengis, N.; Keller, D. P.; Eby, M.; Oschlies, A.

    2015-09-01

    While terrestrial precipitation is a societally highly relevant climate variable, there is little consensus among climate models about its projected 21st century changes. An important source of precipitable water over land is plant transpiration. Plants control transpiration by opening and closing their stomata. The sensitivity of this process to increasing CO2 concentrations is uncertain. To assess the impact of this uncertainty on future climate, we perform experiments with an intermediate complexity Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) for a range of model-imposed transpiration-sensitivities to CO2. Changing the sensitivity of transpiration to CO2 causes simulated terrestrial precipitation to change by -10% to +27% by 2100 under a high emission scenario. This study emphasises the importance of an improved assessment of the dynamics of environmental impact on vegetation to better predict future changes of the terrestrial hydrological and carbon cycles.

  20. Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change. Human health

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bosello, Francesco [Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Venice (Italy); Roson, Roberto [International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy); Tol, Richard S.J. [Centre for Marine and Climate Research, Hamburg University, Hamburg (Germany)

    2006-06-25

    We study the economic impacts of climate-change-induced change in human health, viz. cardiovascular and respiratory disorders, diarrhoea, malaria, dengue fever and schistosomiasis. Changes in morbidity and mortality are interpreted as changes in labour productivity and demand for health care, and used to shock the GTAP-E computable general equilibrium model, calibrated for the year 2050. GDP, welfare and investment fall (rise) in regions with net negative (positive) health impacts. Prices, production, and terms of trade show a mixed pattern. Direct cost estimates, common in climate change impact studies, underestimate the true welfare losses. (author)

  1. Project Summary (2012-2015) – Carbon Dynamics of the Greater Everglades Watershed and Implications of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hinkle, Ross [University of Central Florida; Benscoter, Brian [Florida Atlantic University; Comas, Xavier [Florida Atlantic University; Sumner, David [USGS; DeAngelis, Donald [USGS

    2015-04-07

    Carbon Dynamics of the Greater Everglades Watershed and Implications of Climate Change The objectives of this project are to: 1) quantify above- and below-ground carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems along a seasonal hydrologic gradient in the headwaters region of the Greater Everglades watershed; 2) develop budgets of ecosystem gaseous carbon exchange (carbon dioxide and methane) across the seasonal hydrologic gradient; 3) assess the impact of climate drivers on ecosystem carbon exchange in the Greater Everglades headwater region; and 4) integrate research findings with climate-driven terrestrial ecosystem carbon models to examine the potential influence of projected future climate change on regional carbon cycling. Note: this project receives a one-year extension past the original performance period - David Sumner (USGS) is not included in this extension.

  2. Temperature and Violent Crime in Dallas, Texas: Relationships and Implications of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janet L. Gamble

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: To investigate relationships between ambient temperatures and violent crimes to determine whether those relationships are consistent across different crime categories and whether they are best described as increasing linear functions, or as curvilinear functions that decrease beyond some temperature threshold. A secondary objective was to consider the implications of the observed relationships for injuries and deaths from violent crimes in the context of a warming climate. To address these questions, we examined the relationship between daily ambient temperatures and daily incidents of violent crime in Dallas, Texas from 1993–1999.Methods: We analyzed the relationships between daily fluctuations in ambient temperature, other meteorological and temporal variables, and rates of daily violent crime using time series piece-wise regression and plots of daily data. Violent crimes, including aggravated assault, homicide, and sexualassault, were analyzed.Results: We found that daily mean ambient temperature is related in a curvilinear fashion to daily rates of violent crime with a positive and increasing relationship between temperature and aggravated crime that moderates beyond temperatures of 80 F and then turns negative beyond 90 F.Conclusion: While some have characterized the relationship between temperature and violent crime as a continually increasing linear function, leaving open the possibility that aggravated crime will increase in a warmer climate, we conclude that the relationship in Dallas is not linear, but moderatesand turns negative at high ambient temperatures. We posit that higher temperatures may encourage people to seek shelter in cooler indoor spaces, and that street crime and other crimes of opportunity are subsequently decreased. This finding suggests that the higher ambient temperatures expected with climate change may result in marginal shifts in violent crime in the short term, but are not likely to be

  3. Predicting pan-tropical climate change induced forest stock gains and losses-implications for REDD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deforestation is a major threat to tropical forests worldwide, contributing up to one-fifth of global carbon emissions into the atmosphere. Despite protection efforts, deforestation of tropical forests has continued in recent years. Providing incentives to reducing deforestation has been proposed in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Bali negotiations in 2007 to decelerate emissions from deforestation (REDD-reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation). A number of methodological issues such as ensuring permanence, establishing reference emissions levels that do not reward business-as-usual and having a measuring, reporting and verification system in place are essential elements in implementing successful REDD schemes. To assess the combined impacts of climate and land-use change on tropical forest carbon stocks in the 21st century, we use a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ DGVM) driven by five different climate change projections under a given greenhouse gas emission scenario (SRES A2) and two contrasting land-use change scenarios. We find that even under a complete stop of deforestation after the period of the Kyoto Protocol (post-2012) some countries may continue to lose carbon stocks due to climate change. Especially at risk is tropical Latin America, although the presence and magnitude of the risk depends on the climate change scenario. By contrast, strong protection of forests could increase carbon uptake in many tropical countries, due to CO2 fertilization effects, even under altered climate regimes.

  4. Climate Change: Basic Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... are here: EPA Home Climate Change Basic Information Climate Change: Basic Information On This Page Climate change ... We can make a difference How is the climate changing in the U.S.? Observations across the United ...

  5. Carbon Stocks and Climate Change: Management Implications in Northern Arizona Ponderosa Pine Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Bagdon

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Researchers have observed climate-driven shifts of forest types to higher elevations in the Southwestern US and predict further migration coupled with large-scale mortality events proportional to increases in radiative forcing. Range contractions of forests are likely to impact the total carbon stored within a stand. This study examines the dynamics of Pinus ponderosa stands under three climate change scenarios in Northern Arizona using the Climate Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS model to project changes in carbon pools. A sample of 90 stands were grouped according to three elevational ranges; low- (1951 to 2194 m, mid- (2194 to 2499 m, and high- (2499 to 2682 m. elevation stands. Growth, mortality, and carbon stores were simulated in the Climate-FVS over a 100 year timespan. We further simulated three management scenarios for each elevational gradient and climate scenario. Management included (1 a no-management scenario, (2 an intensive-management scenario characterized by thinning from below to a residual basal area (BA of 18 m2/ha in conjunction with a prescribed burn every 10 years, and (3 a moderate-management scenario characterized by a thin-from-below treatment to a residual BA of 28 m2/ha coupled with a prescribed burn every 20 years. Results indicate that any increase in aridity due to climate change will produce substantial mortality throughout the elevational range of ponderosa pine stands, with lower elevation stands projected to experience the most devastating effects. Management was only effective for the intensive-management scenario; stands receiving this treatment schedule maintained moderately consistent levels of basal area and demonstrated a higher level of resilience to climate change relative to the two other management scenarios. The results of this study indicate that management can improve resiliency to climate change, however, resource managers may need to employ more intensive thinning treatments than

  6. Temperature and Violent Crime in Dallas, Texas: Relationships and Implications of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Gamble, Janet L.; Hess, Jeremy J.

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: To investigate relationships between ambient temperatures and violent crimes to determine whether those relationships are consistent across different crime categories and whether they are best described as increasing linear functions, or as curvilinear functions that decrease beyond some temperature threshold. A secondary objective was to consider the implications of the observed relationships for injuries and deaths from violent crimes in the context of a warming climate. To ad...

  7. The implication of irrigation in climate change impact assessment: a European-wide study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Gang; Webber, Heidi; Hoffmann, Holger; Wolf, Joost; Siebert, Stefan; Ewert, Frank

    2015-11-01

    This study evaluates the impacts of projected climate change on irrigation requirements and yields of six crops (winter wheat, winter barley, rapeseed, grain maize, potato, and sugar beet) in Europe. Furthermore, the uncertainty deriving from consideration of irrigation, CO2 effects on crop growth and transpiration, and different climate change scenarios in climate change impact assessments is quantified. Net irrigation requirement (NIR) and yields of the six crops were simulated for a baseline (1982-2006) and three SRES scenarios (B1, B2 and A1B, 2040-2064) under rainfed and irrigated conditions, using a process-based crop model, SIMPLACE . We found that projected climate change decreased NIR of the three winter crops in northern Europe (up to 81 mm), but increased NIR of all the six crops in the Mediterranean regions (up to 182 mm yr(-1) ). Climate change increased yields of the three winter crops and sugar beet in middle and northern regions (up to 36%), but decreased their yields in Mediterranean countries (up to 81%). Consideration of CO2 effects can alter the direction of change in NIR for irrigated crops in the south and of yields for C3 crops in central and northern Europe. Constraining the model to rainfed conditions for spring crops led to a negative bias in simulating climate change impacts on yields (up to 44%), which was proportional to the irrigation ratio of the simulation unit. Impacts on NIR and yields were generally consistent across the three SRES scenarios for the majority of regions in Europe. We conclude that due to the magnitude of irrigation and CO2 effects, they should both be considered in the simulation of climate change impacts on crop production and water availability, particularly for crops and regions with a high proportion of irrigated crop area.

  8. Implications of climate change for wetland-dependent birds in the Prairie Pothole Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steen, Valerie; Skagen, Susan; Melcher, Cynthia P.

    2016-01-01

    The habitats and food resources required to support breeding and migrant birds dependent on North American prairie wetlands are threatened by impending climate change. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) hosts nearly 120 species of wetland-dependent birds representing 21 families. Strategic management requires knowledge of avian habitat requirements and assessment of species most vulnerable to future threats. We applied bioclimatic species distribution models (SDMs) to project range changes of 29 wetland-dependent bird species using ensemble modeling techniques, a large number of General Circulation Models (GCMs), and hydrological climate covariates. For the U.S. PPR, mean projected range change, expressed as a proportion of currently occupied range, was −0.31 (± 0.22 SD; range − 0.75 to 0.16), and all but two species were projected to lose habitat. Species associated with deeper water were expected to experience smaller negative impacts of climate change. The magnitude of climate change impacts was somewhat lower in this study than earlier efforts most likely due to use of different focal species, varying methodologies, different modeling decisions, or alternative GCMs. Quantification of the projected species-specific impacts of climate change using species distribution modeling offers valuable information for vulnerability assessments within the conservation planning process.

  9. Agricultural Producer Responses to Weather and Surface Water Variability: Implications for Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Manning, Dale T; Goemans, Chris; Maas, Alex

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is predicted to bring increased temperatures and changes in water availability across the United States. Understanding the responsiveness of irrigated agriculture to changes in available water, both supplemental, and natural, is critical to evaluating the potential impacts of climage change as well as measuring the benefit of new water supply development. Despite representing only half the value of total agricultural sales in the US, previous literature has mostly focused on dr...

  10. Climate change influences on marine infectious diseases: implications for management and society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burge, Colleen A.; Eakin, C. Mark; Friedman, Carolyn S.; Froelich, Brett; Hershberger, Paul K.; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Petes, Laura E.; Prager, Katherine C.; Weil, Ernesto; Willis, Bette L.; Ford, Susan E.; Harvell, C. Drew

    2014-01-01

    Infectious diseases are common in marine environments, but the effects of a changing climate on marine pathogens are not well understood. Here, we focus on reviewing current knowledge about how the climate drives hostpathogen interactions and infectious disease outbreaks. Climate-related impacts on marine diseases are being documented in corals, shellfish, finfish, and humans; these impacts are less clearly linked to other organisms. Oceans and people are inextricably linked, and marine diseases can both directly and indirectly affect human health, livelihoods, and well-being. We recommend an adaptive management approach to better increase the resilience of ocean systems vulnerable to marine diseases in a changing climate. Land-based management methods of quarantining, culling, and vaccinating are not successful in the ocean; therefore, forecasting conditions that lead to outbreaks and designing tools/approaches to influence these conditions may be the best way to manage marine disease.

  11. Changing climate, changing frames

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► We show development of flood policy frames in context of climate change attention. ► Rising attention on climate change influences traditional flood policy framing. ► The new framing employs global-scale scientific climate change knowledge. ► With declining attention, framing disregards climate change, using local knowledge. ► We conclude that frames function as sensemaking devices selectively using knowledge. -- Abstract: Water management and particularly flood defence have a long history of collective action in low-lying countries like the Netherlands. The uncertain but potentially severe impacts of the recent climate change issue (e.g. sea level rise, extreme river discharges, salinisation) amplify the wicked and controversial character of flood safety policy issues. Policy proposals in this area generally involve drastic infrastructural works and long-term investments. They face the difficult challenge of framing problems and solutions in a publicly acceptable manner in ever changing circumstances. In this paper, we analyse and compare (1) how three key policy proposals publicly frame the flood safety issue, (2) the knowledge referred to in the framing and (3) how these frames are rhetorically connected or disconnected as statements in a long-term conversation. We find that (1) framings of policy proposals differ in the way they depict the importance of climate change, the relevant timeframe and the appropriate governance mode; (2) knowledge is selectively mobilised to underpin the different frames and (3) the frames about these proposals position themselves against the background of the previous proposals through rhetorical connections and disconnections. Finally, we discuss how this analysis hints at the importance of processes of powering and puzzling that lead to particular framings towards the public at different historical junctures

  12. Climate and hydrological changes in the northeastern United States: recent trends and implications for forested and aquatic ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntington, Thomas G.; Richardson, Andrew D.; McGuire, Kevin J.; Hayhoe, Katharine

    2009-01-01

    We review twentieth century and projected twenty-first century changes in climatic and hydrologic conditions in the northeastern United States and the implications of these changes for forest ecosystems. Climate warming and increases in precipitation and associated changes in snow and hydrologic regimes have been observed over the last century, with the most pronounced changes occurring since 1970. Trends in specific climatic and hydrologic variables differ in their responses spatially (e.g., coastal vs. inland) and temporally (e.g., spring vs. summer). Trends can differ depending on the period of record analyzed, hinting at the role of decadal-scale climatic variation that is superimposed over the longer-term trend. Model predictions indicate that continued increases in temperature and precipitation across the northeastern United States can be expected over the next century. Ongoing increases in growing season length (earlier spring and later autumn) will most likely increase evapotranspiration and frequency of drought. In turn, an increase in the frequency of drought will likely increase the risk of fire and negatively impact forest productivity, maple syrup production, and the intensity of autumn foliage coloration. Climate and hydrologic changes could have profound effects on forest structure, composition, and ecological functioning in response to the changes discussed here and as described in related articles in this issue of the Journal.

  13. Implications of climate change for the fishes of the British Isles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, C T; Harrod, C

    2009-04-01

    Recent climatic change has been recorded across the globe. Although environmental change is a characteristic feature of life on Earth and has played a major role in the evolution and global distribution of biodiversity, predicted future rates of climatic change, especially in temperature, are such that they will exceed any that has occurred over recent geological time. Climate change is considered as a key threat to biodiversity and to the structure and function of ecosystems that may already be subject to significant anthropogenic stress. The current understanding of climate change and its likely consequences for the fishes of Britain and Ireland and the surrounding seas are reviewed through a series of case studies detailing the likely response of several marine, diadromous and freshwater fishes to climate change. Changes in climate, and in particular, temperature have and will continue to affect fish at all levels of biological organization: cellular, individual, population, species, community and ecosystem, influencing physiological and ecological processes in a number of direct, indirect and complex ways. The response of fishes and of other aquatic taxa will vary according to their tolerances and life stage and are complex and difficult to predict. Fishes may respond directly to climate-change-related shifts in environmental processes or indirectly to other influences, such as community-level interactions with other taxa. However, the ability to adapt to the predicted changes in climate will vary between species and between habitats and there will be winners and losers. In marine habitats, recent changes in fish community structure will continue as fishes shift their distributions relative to their temperature preferences. This may lead to the loss of some economically important cold-adapted species such as Gadus morhua and Clupea harengus from some areas around Britain and Ireland, and the establishment of some new, warm-adapted species. Increased

  14. Global Climate Change: Some Implications, Opportunities, and Challenges for US Forestry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marland, G.

    1991-06-01

    It is widely agreed that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the earth`s atmosphere is increasing, that this increase is a consequence of man`s activities, and that there is significant risk that this will lead to changes in the earth`s climate. The question is now being discussed what, if anything, we should be doing to minimize and/or adapt to changes in climate. Virtually every statement on this matter; from the US Office of Technology Assessment, to the National Academy of Science, to the Nairobi Declaration on Climatic Change, includes some recommendation for planting and protecting forests. In fact, forestry is intimately involved in the climate change debate for several reasons: changing climate patterns will affect existing forests, tropical deforestation is one of the major sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, reforestation projects could remove additional carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and there is renewed interest in wood-based or other renewable fuels to replace fossil fuels. Part of the enthusiasm for forestry-related strategies in a greenhouse context is the perception that forests not only provide greenhouse benefits but also serve other desirable social objectives. This discussion will explore the current range of thinking in this area and try to stimulate additional thinking on the rationality of the forestry-based approaches and the challenges posed for US forestry.

  15. Global climate change: Some implications, opportunities, and challenges for US forestry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is widely agreed that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere is increasing, that this increase is a consequence of man's activities, and that there is significant risk that this will lead to changes in the earth's climate. The question is now being discussed what, if anything, we should be doing to minimize and/or adapt to changes in climate. Virtually every statement on this matter; from the US Office of Technology Assessment, to the National Academy of Science, to the Nairobi Declaration on Climatic Change, includes some recommendation for planting and protecting forests. In fact, forestry is intimately involved in the climate change debate for several reasons: changing climate patterns will affect existing forests, tropical deforestation is one of the major sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, reforestation projects could remove additional carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and there is renewed interest in wood-based or other renewable fuels to replace fossil fuels. Part of the enthusiasm for forestry-related strategies in a greenhouse context is the perception that forests not only provide greenhouse benefits but also serve other desirable social objectives. This discussion will explore the current range of thinking in this area and try to stimulate additional thinking on the rationality of the forestry-based approaches and the challenges posed for US forestry

  16. Effects of seasonal climatic variability on several toxic contaminants in urban lakes: Implications for the impacts of climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qiong Wu; Xinghui Xia; Xinli Mou; Baotong Zhu; Pujun Zhao; Haiyang Dong

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is supposed to have influences on water quality and ecosystem.However,only few studies have assessed the effect of climate change on environmental toxic contaminants in urban lakes.In this research,response of several toxic contaminants in twelve urban lakes in Beijing,China,to the seasonal variations in climatic factors was studied.Fluorides,volatile phenols,arsenic,selenium,and other water quality parameters were analyzed monthly from 2009 to 2012.Multivariate statistical methods including principle component analysis,cluster analysis,and multiple regression analysis were performed to study the relationship between contaminants and climatic factors including temperature,precipitation,wind speed,and sunshine duration.Fluoride and arsenic concentrations in most urban lakes exhibited a significant positive correlation with temperature/precipitation,which is mainly caused by rainfall induced diffuse pollution.A negative correlation was observed between volatile phenols and temperature/precipitation,and this could be explained by their enhanced volatilization and biodegradation rates caused by higher temperature.Selenium did not show a significant response to climatic factor variations,which was attributed to low selenium contents in the lakes and soils.Moreover,the response degrees of contaminants to climatic variations differ among lakes with different contamination levels.On average,temperature/precipitation contributed to 8%,15%,and 12% of the variations in volatile phenols,arsenic,and fluorides,respectively.Beijing is undergoing increased temperature and heavy rainfall frequency during the past five decades.This study suggests that water quality related to fluoride and arsenic concentrations of most urban lakes in Beijing is becoming worse under this climate change trend.

  17. Effects of seasonal climatic variability on several toxic contaminants in urban lakes: Implications for the impacts of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qiong; Xia, Xinghui; Mou, Xinli; Zhu, Baotong; Zhao, Pujun; Dong, Haiyang

    2014-12-01

    Climate change is supposed to have influences on water quality and ecosystem. However, only few studies have assessed the effect of climate change on environmental toxic contaminants in urban lakes. In this research, response of several toxic contaminants in twelve urban lakes in Beijing, China, to the seasonal variations in climatic factors was studied. Fluorides, volatile phenols, arsenic, selenium, and other water quality parameters were analyzed monthly from 2009 to 2012. Multivariate statistical methods including principle component analysis, cluster analysis, and multiple regression analysis were performed to study the relationship between contaminants and climatic factors including temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and sunshine duration. Fluoride and arsenic concentrations in most urban lakes exhibited a significant positive correlation with temperature/precipitation, which is mainly caused by rainfall induced diffuse pollution. A negative correlation was observed between volatile phenols and temperature/precipitation, and this could be explained by their enhanced volatilization and biodegradation rates caused by higher temperature. Selenium did not show a significant response to climatic factor variations, which was attributed to low selenium contents in the lakes and soils. Moreover, the response degrees of contaminants to climatic variations differ among lakes with different contamination levels. On average, temperature/precipitation contributed to 8%, 15%, and 12% of the variations in volatile phenols, arsenic, and fluorides, respectively. Beijing is undergoing increased temperature and heavy rainfall frequency during the past five decades. This study suggests that water quality related to fluoride and arsenic concentrations of most urban lakes in Beijing is becoming worse under this climate change trend. PMID:25499484

  18. Evidence and Implications of Recent Climate Change in Terrestrial Regions of the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinzman, L. D.; Bettez, N.; Chapin, F. S.; Dyurgerov, M.; Fastie, C.; Griffith, D. B.; Hope, A.; Huntington, H. P.; Jensen, A.; Kane, D. L.; Kofinas, G.; Lynch, A.; Lloyd, A.; McGuire, A. D.; Nelson, F. E.; Osterkamp, T.; Oechel, W. C.; Racine, C.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Schimel, J.; Stow, D.; Sturm, M.; Tweedie, C. E.; Vourlitis, G.; Walker, M.; Webber, P. J.; Welker, J.; Winker, K.; Yoshikawa, K.

    2002-12-01

    Are changes occurring in the polar terrestrial regime? Is the distribution of permafrost and Arctic region freeze and thaw changing? Is the hydrology of Arctic terrestrial regions changing? Are significant changes occurring in the distribution and productivity of high-latitude vegetation? If one examines any individual scientific discipline, evidence of climate change in arctic regions offers only pieces of the puzzle. Here we present a broad array of evidence to provide a convincing case of change in the arctic climate and a system-wide response of terrestrial processes. The thermal regime of the Arctic holds unique characteristics and consequently will display marked changes in response to climate warming. In many cases, threshold changes will occur in physical systems proceeding from permanently frozen to periodically thawed. Dramatic changes also accompany biological systems adapting to an evolving environment. In the last 25 to 400 years a wide range of changes in the Arctic have been detected. In many cases, these changes started, or accelerated, in the mid-1970s. Some of the changes, like later freeze-up and earlier break-up of arctic rivers and lakes, mirror arctic-wide and even global increases in air temperature. Others document more subtle or complex responses of the arctic system as it adapts to current and longer-term trends in climate. Since the arctic system is particularly sensitive to changes in rain- and snowfall, timing of freeze-up and break-up, and the intensity of storm activity, it is likely that much of what has been documented to date, and will be observed in the future, arises from changes in these forcing fields. Unfortunately, compared with temperature, they are poorly known. Regardless of the driving forces, however, the combined observations and documentation offer diffuse but substantial evidence that the arctic system may be entering a state not seen before in recent history.

  19. Implications of Dynamic Loading and Changing Climate on Mercury Bioaccumulation in a Planktivorous Fish (Orthodon microlepidotus)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, R. W. H.; Flickinger, A.; Warwick, J. J.; Schumer, R.

    2015-12-01

    A bioenergetic and mercury (Hg) mass balance (BioHg) model is developed for the Sacramento blackfish (Orthodon microlepidotus), a filter feeding cyprinid found in northern California and Nevada. Attention focuses on the Lahontan Reservoir in northern Nevada, which receives a strong temporally varying load of dissolved methylmercury (DMeHg) from the Carson River. Hg loads are the result of contaminated bank erosion during high flows and diffusion from bottom sediments during low flows. Coupling of dynamic reservoir loading with periods of maximum plankton growth and maximum fish consumption rates are required to explain the largest body burdens observed in the planktivore. In contrast, the large body burdens cannot be achieved using average water column concentrations. The United States Bureau of Reclamation has produced future streamflow estimates for 2000-2099 using 112 CMIP3 climate projections and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. These are used to drive a fully dynamic Hg transport model to assess changes in contaminant loading to the reservoir and implications on planktivorous bioaccumulation. Model results suggest the future loads of DMeHg entering the Lahontan Reservoir will decrease most significantly in the spring and summer due to channel width increases and depth decreases in the Carson River which reduce bank erosion over the century. The modeled concentrations of DMeHg in the reservoir are expected to increase during the summer due to a decrease in reservoir volume affecting the concentrations more than the decrease in loads, and the model results show that bioaccumulation levels may increase in the upstream sections of the reservoir while maintaining contamination levels above the federal action limit for human consumption in the lower reservoir.

  20. Assessment of Potential Shifts in Europe's Natural Vegetation due to Climatic Change and some Implications for Nature Conservation

    OpenAIRE

    Groot, R.S. de

    1988-01-01

    One of the objectives of IIASA's Study "The Future Environments for Europe: Some Implications of Alternative Development Paths" is to characterize the large-scale and long-term environmental transformations that could be associated with plausible scenarios of Europe's socio-economic development over the next century. An important environmental transformation is the expected climatic change which will place additional stresses on the natural ecosystems in Europe. This Working Paper describes a...

  1. Justice and Equity Implications of Climate Change Adaptation: A Theoretical Evaluation Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boeckmann, Melanie; Zeeb, Hajo

    2016-01-01

    Climate change affects human health, and climate change adaptation aims to reduce these risks through infrastructural, behavioral, and technological measures. However, attributing direct human health effects to climate change adaptation is difficult, causing an ethical dilemma between the need for evidence of strategies and their precautionary implementation before such evidence has been generated. In the absence of conclusive evidence for individual adaptation strategies, alternative approaches to the measurement of adaptation effectiveness need to be developed. This article proposes a theoretical framework and a set of guiding questions to assess effects of adaptation strategies on seven domains of health determinants, including social, economic, infrastructure, institutional, community, environmental, and cultural determinants of health. Its focus on advancing gender equity and environmental justice concurrently with the implementation of health-related adaptation could serve as a template for policymakers and researchers. PMID:27618121

  2. Justice and Equity Implications of Climate Change Adaptation: A Theoretical Evaluation Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melanie Boeckmann

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change affects human health, and climate change adaptation aims to reduce these risks through infrastructural, behavioral, and technological measures. However, attributing direct human health effects to climate change adaptation is difficult, causing an ethical dilemma between the need for evidence of strategies and their precautionary implementation before such evidence has been generated. In the absence of conclusive evidence for individual adaptation strategies, alternative approaches to the measurement of adaptation effectiveness need to be developed. This article proposes a theoretical framework and a set of guiding questions to assess effects of adaptation strategies on seven domains of health determinants, including social, economic, infrastructure, institutional, community, environmental, and cultural determinants of health. Its focus on advancing gender equity and environmental justice concurrently with the implementation of health-related adaptation could serve as a template for policymakers and researchers.

  3. Justice and Equity Implications of Climate Change Adaptation: A Theoretical Evaluation Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boeckmann, Melanie; Zeeb, Hajo

    2016-01-01

    Climate change affects human health, and climate change adaptation aims to reduce these risks through infrastructural, behavioral, and technological measures. However, attributing direct human health effects to climate change adaptation is difficult, causing an ethical dilemma between the need for evidence of strategies and their precautionary implementation before such evidence has been generated. In the absence of conclusive evidence for individual adaptation strategies, alternative approaches to the measurement of adaptation effectiveness need to be developed. This article proposes a theoretical framework and a set of guiding questions to assess effects of adaptation strategies on seven domains of health determinants, including social, economic, infrastructure, institutional, community, environmental, and cultural determinants of health. Its focus on advancing gender equity and environmental justice concurrently with the implementation of health-related adaptation could serve as a template for policymakers and researchers. PMID:27618121

  4. Soil-transmitted helminthiases: implications of climate change and human behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, Haylee J; Hawdon, John M; Hoberg, Eric P

    2010-12-01

    Soil-transmitted helminthiases (STHs) collectively cause the highest global burden of parasitic disease after malaria and are most prevalent in the poorest communities, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change is predicted to alter the physical environment through cumulative impacts of warming and extreme fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, with cascading effects on human health and wellbeing, food security and socioeconomic infrastructure. Understanding how the spectrum of climate change effects will influence STHs is therefore of critical importance to the control of the global burden of human parasitic disease. Realistic progress in the global control of STH in a changing climate requires a multidisciplinary approach that includes the sciences (e.g. thermal thresholds for parasite development and resilience) and social sciences (e.g. behavior and implementation of education and sanitation programs). PMID:20580609

  5. Justice and Equity Implications of Climate Change Adaptation: A Theoretical Evaluation Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boeckmann, Melanie; Zeeb, Hajo

    2016-09-07

    Climate change affects human health, and climate change adaptation aims to reduce these risks through infrastructural, behavioral, and technological measures. However, attributing direct human health effects to climate change adaptation is difficult, causing an ethical dilemma between the need for evidence of strategies and their precautionary implementation before such evidence has been generated. In the absence of conclusive evidence for individual adaptation strategies, alternative approaches to the measurement of adaptation effectiveness need to be developed. This article proposes a theoretical framework and a set of guiding questions to assess effects of adaptation strategies on seven domains of health determinants, including social, economic, infrastructure, institutional, community, environmental, and cultural determinants of health. Its focus on advancing gender equity and environmental justice concurrently with the implementation of health-related adaptation could serve as a template for policymakers and researchers.

  6. Hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Nile River basin: Implications of the 2007 IPCC climate scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beyene, T.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

    2010-01-01

    We assess the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Nile River basin using a macroscale hydrology model. Model inputs are bias corrected and spatially downscaled 21st Century simulations from 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two global emissions scen

  7. Four decades of Andean timberline migration and implications for biodiversity loss with climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A Lutz

    Full Text Available Rapid 21st-century climate change may lead to large population decreases and extinction in tropical montane cloud forest species in the Andes. While prior research has focused on species migrations per se, ecotones may respond to different environmental factors than species. Even if species can migrate in response to climate change, if ecotones do not they can function as hard barriers to species migrations, making ecotone migrations central to understanding species persistence under scenarios of climate change. We examined a 42-year span of aerial photographs and high resolution satellite imagery to calculate migration rates of timberline--the grassland-forest ecotone-inside and outside of protected areas in the high Peruvian Andes. We found that timberline in protected areas was more likely to migrate upward in elevation than in areas with frequent cattle grazing and fire. However, rates in both protected (0.24 m yr(-1 and unprotected (0.05 m yr(-1 areas are only 0.5-2.3% of the rates needed to stay in equilibrium with projected climate by 2100. These ecotone migration rates are 12.5 to 110 times slower than the observed species migration rates within the same forest, suggesting a barrier to migration for mid- and high-elevation species. We anticipate that the ecotone will be a hard barrier to migration under future climate change, leading to drastic population and biodiversity losses in the region unless intensive management steps are taken.

  8. Local adaptation in brown trout early life-history traits: implications for climate change adaptability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, L.F.; Hansen, Michael Møller; Pertoldi, C.;

    2008-01-01

      Knowledge of local adaptation and adaptive potential of natural populations is becoming increasingly relevant due to anthropogenic changes in the environment, such as climate change. The concern is that populations will be negatively affected by increasing temperatures without the capacity...... and heritable variation in phenotypic plasticity suggest that although increasing temperatures are likely to affect some populations negatively, they may have the potential to adapt to changing temperature regimes.  ...

  9. Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society

    OpenAIRE

    MIMURA, nobuo

    2013-01-01

    Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human ...

  10. Contributions of meteorology to the phenology of cyanobacterial blooms: implications for future climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Min; Duan, Hongtao; Shi, Xiaoli; Yu, Yang; Kong, Fanxiang

    2012-02-01

    Cyanobacterial blooms are often a result of eutrophication. Recently, however, their expansion has also been found to be associated with changes in climate. To elucidate the effects of climatic variables on the expansion of cyanobacterial blooms in Taihu, China, we analyzed the relationships between climatic variables and bloom events which were retrieved by satellite images. We then assessed the contribution of each climate variable to the phenology of blooms using multiple regression models. Our study demonstrates that retrieving ecological information from satellite images is meritorious for large-scale and long-term ecological research in freshwater ecosystems. Our results show that the phenological changes of blooms at an inter-annual scale are strongly linked to climate in Taihu during the past 23 yr. Cyanobacterial blooms occur earlier and last longer with the increase of temperature, sunshine hours, and global radiation and the decrease of wind speed. Furthermore, the duration increases when the daily averages of maximum, mean, and minimum temperature each exceed 20.3 °C, 16.7 °C, and 13.7 °C, respectively. Among these factors, sunshine hours and wind speed are the primary contributors to the onset of the blooms, explaining 84.6% of their variability over the past 23 yr. These factors are also good predictors of the variability in the duration of annual blooms and determined 58.9% of the variability in this parameter. Our results indicate that when nutrients are in sufficiently high quantities to sustain the formation of cyanobacterial blooms, climatic variables become crucial in predicting cyanobacterial bloom events. Climate changes should be considered when we evaluate how much the amount of nutrients should be reduced in Taihu for lake management.

  11. Climate Change in the Seychelles: Implications for Water and Coral Reefs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Payet, Rolph; Agricole, Wills [National Meteorological Services Mahe (Seychelles). Div. of Policy, Planning and Services

    2006-06-15

    The Seychelles is a small island state in the western Indian Ocean that is vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This vulnerability led the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 to express concern over the potential economic and social consequences that may be faced by small island states. Small island states should be prepared to adapt to such changes, especially in view of their dependence on natural resources, such as water and coral reefs, to meet basic human welfare needs. Analysis of long-term data for precipitation, air temperature, and sea-surface temperature indicated that changes are already observable in the Seychelles. The increase in dry spells that resulted in drought conditions in 1999 and the 1998 mass coral bleaching are indicative of the events that are likely to occur under future climate change. Pre-IPCC Third Assessment Report scenarios and the new SRES scenarios are compared for changes in precipitation and air surface temperature for the Seychelles. These intercomparisons indicate that the IS92 scenarios project a much warmer and wetter climate for the Seychelles than do the SRES scenarios. However, a wetter climate does not imply readily available water, but rather longer dry spells with more intense precipitation events. These observations will likely place enormous pressures on water-resources management in the Seychelles. Similarly, sea-surface temperature increases predicted by the HADCm{sup 3} model will likely trigger repeated coral-bleaching episodes, with possible coral extinctions within the Seychelles region by 2040. The cover of many coral reefs around the Seychelles have already changed, and the protection of coral-resilient areas is a critical adaptive option.

  12. Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hällfors, Maria Helena; Liao, Jishan; Dzurisin, Jason D. K.; Grundel, Ralph; Hyvärinen, Marko; Towle, Kevin; Wu, Grace C.; Hellmann, Jessica J.

    2016-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs to treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account, may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted, however. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species' range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate MaxEnt models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. PCA analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species versus population-based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population-based models to compare with whole-species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered.

  13. Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hällfors, Maria Helena; Liao, Jishan; Dzurisin, Jason; Grundel, Ralph; Hyvärinen, Marko; Towle, Kevin; Wu, Grace C; Hellmann, Jessica J

    2016-06-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species' range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate Max-Ent models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. Principal component analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species vs. population-based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population-based models to compare with whole-species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered.

  14. Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hällfors, Maria Helena; Liao, Jishan; Dzurisin, Jason; Grundel, Ralph; Hyvärinen, Marko; Towle, Kevin; Wu, Grace C; Hellmann, Jessica J

    2016-06-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species' range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate Max-Ent models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. Principal component analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species vs. population-based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population-based models to compare with whole-species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered. PMID:27509755

  15. Potential Implications of Approaches to Climate Change on the Clean Water Rule Definition of "Waters of the United States".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faust, Derek R; Moore, Matthew T; Emison, Gerald Andrews; Rush, Scott A

    2016-05-01

    The 1972 Clean Water Act was passed to protect chemical, physical, and biological integrity of United States' waters. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers codified a new "waters of the United States" rule on June 29, 2015, because several Supreme Court case decisions caused confusion with the existing rule. Climate change could affect this rule through connectivity between groundwater and surface waters; floodplain waters and the 100-year floodplain; changes in jurisdictional status; and sea level rise on coastal ecosystems. Four approaches are discussed for handling these implications: (1) "Wait and see"; (2) changes to the rule; (3) use guidance documents; (4) Congress statutorily defining "waters of the United States." The approach chosen should be legally defensible and achieved in a timely fashion to provide protection to "waters of the United States" in proactive consideration of scientifically documented effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems.

  16. Stable carbon isotope analyses in sediments and its implications for reconstructing climatic and environmental changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The relative significance of the 20th-century climatic and environmental changes must be assessed form the long-term global-scale perspective available from a spectrum of proxy histories. In many cases geochemical proxies in sediments are needed to supplement the established use of the stable isotope analyses for paleotemperature and paleo-hydrological modeling so as to understand the past environment conditions and evaluate predictive models of climate. The stable carbon isotope fractionation during photosynthesis and the system CO2 (gas)-CO2-(aqueous)-HCO3- (aqueous) are reviewed; and application of the stable carbon isotope to reconstruction of palaeo-climatic and palaeo-environmental changes, especially CO2 levels during the late Quaternary are discussed

  17. Responses of tropical root crops to climate change: implications for Pacific food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleadow, R.; Webber, B.; Macness, N.; Lisson, S.; Nauluvula, P.; Hargraves, J.; Crimp, S. J.

    2013-12-01

    Cassava and taro are an important source of calories in many parts of the developing world and hold much promise for meeting the need for food security in equatorial regions. Communities in the Pacific Island countries reliant on agriculture-based livelihood systems have been identified as particularly at risk from climate change, due to likely increases in crop failure, new patterns of pests and diseases, lack of appropriate seed and plant material, loss of livestock and potential loss of arable land. Recent shortfalls in agricultural production resulting from changing export markets, commodity prices, climatic variation, and population growth and urbanisation, have contributed further to regional food insecurity concerns. Cassava and taro contain herbivore defense chemicals that are detrimental to human health (cyanogenic glucosides and calcium oxalate). Unprocessed cassava can cause acute cyanide intoxication, paralysis and even death, especially during droughts. A number of activities are already underway in the Pacific region to identify ways to ameliorate existing climate risk and enhance current agricultural production. Whilst these activities are important to ensure long-term agricultural sustainability, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty as to how effective these strategies may be in the face of a changing and increasingly variable future climate. We present our current understanding of the impact of climate change on key Pacific production systems - specifically those based on the staple root crops, taro and cassava. This includes (1) Our understanding of the responses of cassava and taro crops to existing environmental drivers (climate, soil and nutrient interactions); (2) The responses of cassava and taro crops to enhanced CO2 conditions; and (3) Efforts to model productivity responses (within the APSIM framework) and results for locations in the Pacific.

  18. Climate Change Impacts on Rivers and Implications for Electricity Generation in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miara, A.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Macknick, J.; Corsi, F.; Cohen, S. M.; Tidwell, V. C.; Newmark, R. L.; Prousevitch, A.

    2015-12-01

    The contemporary power sector in the United States is heavily reliant on water resources to provide cooling water for thermoelectric generation. Efficient thermoelectric plant operations require large volumes of water at sufficiently cool temperatures for their cooling process. The total amount of water that is withdrawn or consumed for cooling and any potential declines in efficiencies are determined by the sector's fuel mix and cooling technologies. As such, the impact of climate change, and the extent of impact, on the power sector is shaped by the choice of electricity generation technologies that will be built over the coming decades. In this study, we model potential changes in river discharge and temperature in the contiguous US under a set of climate scenarios to year 2050 using the Water Balance Model-Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution Model (WBM-TP2M). Together, these models quantify, in high-resolution (3-min), river temperatures, discharge and power plant efficiency losses associated with changes in available cooling water that incorporates climate, hydrology, river network dynamics and multi-plant impacts, on both single power plant and regional scales. Results are used to assess the aptness and vulnerability of contemporary and alternative electricity generation pathways to changes in climate and water availability for cooling purposes, and the concomitant impacts on power plant operating efficiencies. We assess the potential impacts by comparing six regions (Northeast, Southeast, Midwest, Great Plains, Southwest, Northwest as in the National Climate Assessment (2014)) across the US. These experiments allow us to assess tradeoffs among electricity-water-climate to provide useful insight for decision-makers managing regional power production and aquatic environments.

  19. Cultural implications of late Holocene climate change in the Cuenca Oriental, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Tripti; Byrne, Roger; Böhnel, Harald; Wogau, Kurt; Kienel, Ulrike; Ingram, B Lynn; Zimmerman, Susan

    2015-02-10

    There is currently no consensus on the importance of climate change in Mesoamerican prehistory. Some invoke drought as a causal factor in major cultural transitions, including the abandonment of many sites at 900 CE, while others conclude that cultural factors were more important. This lack of agreement reflects the fact that the history of climate change in many regions of Mesoamerica is poorly understood. We present paleolimnological evidence suggesting that climate change was important in the abandonment of Cantona between 900 CE and 1050 CE. At its peak, Cantona was one of the largest cities in pre-Columbian Mesoamerica, with a population of 90,000 inhabitants. The site is located in the Cuenca Oriental, a semiarid basin east of Mexico City. We developed a subcentennial reconstruction of regional climate from a nearby maar lake, Aljojuca. The modern climatology of the region suggests that sediments record changes in summer monsoonal precipitation. Elemental geochemistry (X-ray fluorescence) and δ(18)O from authigenic calcite indicate a centennial-scale arid interval between 500 CE and 1150 CE, overlaid on a long-term drying trend. Comparison of this record to Cantona's chronology suggests that both the city's peak population and its abandonment occurred during this arid period. The human response to climate change most likely resulted from the interplay of environmental and political factors. During earlier periods of Cantona's history, increasing aridity and political unrest may have actually increased the city's importance. However, by 1050 CE, this extended arid period, possibly combined with regional political change, contributed to the city's abandonment.

  20. Cultural implications of late Holocene climate change in the Cuenca Oriental, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Tripti; Byrne, Roger; Böhnel, Harald; Wogau, Kurt; Kienel, Ulrike; Ingram, B. Lynn; Zimmerman, Susan

    2015-02-01

    There is currently no consensus on the importance of climate change in Mesoamerican prehistory. Some invoke drought as a causal factor in major cultural transitions, including the abandonment of many sites at 900 CE, while others conclude that cultural factors were more important. This lack of agreement reflects the fact that the history of climate change in many regions of Mesoamerica is poorly understood. We present paleolimnological evidence suggesting that climate change was important in the abandonment of Cantona between 900 CE and 1050 CE. At its peak, Cantona was one of the largest cities in pre-Columbian Mesoamerica, with a population of 90,000 inhabitants. The site is located in the Cuenca Oriental, a semiarid basin east of Mexico City. We developed a subcentennial reconstruction of regional climate from a nearby maar lake, Aljojuca. The modern climatology of the region suggests that sediments record changes in summer monsoonal precipitation. Elemental geochemistry (X-ray fluorescence) and δ18O from authigenic calcite indicate a centennial-scale arid interval between 500 CE and 1150 CE, overlaid on a long-term drying trend. Comparison of this record to Cantona's chronology suggests that both the city's peak population and its abandonment occurred during this arid period. The human response to climate change most likely resulted from the interplay of environmental and political factors. During earlier periods of Cantona's history, increasing aridity and political unrest may have actually increased the city's importance. However, by 1050 CE, this extended arid period, possibly combined with regional political change, contributed to the city's abandonment.

  1. Implications of Climate Variability and Change for Smallholder Crop Production in Different Areas of Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Musiyiwa

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable food production in the rain-fed smallholder sector of Zimbabwe is imperative in current and future climates given the increasing proportion and role of the sector in food security. Backgrounds of the smallholder sector include low resource bases, declining soil productivity, climate variability and increasing human population. Impacts of climatic and non-climatic variables on crop production vary in different Agro-Ecological Regions (AERs. The study identifies the main climatic opportunities and constraints for sustainable rain-fed smallholder crop production systems in current and future climates. Estimated changes in rainfall and temperature by 2050 are not likely to negatively impact crop production in smallholder areas in AER I, increases in temperature may have negative impacts for most of AER III and IV. Most of AER V is likely to become unsuitable for sustainable maize production. Overall projections indicate increased differences in agricultural potential between smallholder farmers in AER I compared to those in AER II and III as well as those in AER IV and V and different management options. Proposed adaptation and coping strategies in AER I and some in AER II include intensification of agriculture and optimization of both C3 and C4 crop production while in AER III to V adoption of stress tolerant crops for family subsistence may be imperative.

  2. Implications of Climate Change for State Bioassessment Programs and Approaches to Account for Effects (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This final report uses biological data collected by four states in wadeable rivers and streams to examine the components of state and tribal bioassessment and biomonitoring programs that may be vulnerable to climate change. The study investigates the potential to identify biologi...

  3. Implications of policies and prevent climate change for future food security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosenberg, N.J.; Scott, M.J.

    1993-07-01

    Measures to reduce the use of fossil fuels, suppression of on-farm emissions of methane (CH{sub 4}) and nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O), afforestation, and geoengineering ``fixes`` have been proposed to mitigate or eliminate greenhouse-forced climate change. These measures will impact agriculture and other sectors of the economy. this report discusses the above impacts.

  4. Connecting to Nature at the Zoo: Implications for Responding to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clayton, Susan; Luebke, Jerry; Saunders, Carol; Matiasek, Jennifer; Grajal, Alejandro

    2014-01-01

    Societal response to climate change has been inadequate. A perception that the issue is both physically and temporally remote may reduce concern; concern may also be affected by the political polarization surrounding the issue in the USA. A feeling of connection to nature or to animals may increase personal relevance, and a supportive social…

  5. Population dynamics under increasing environmental variability: implications of climate change for ecological network design criteria

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verboom, J.; Schippers, P.; Cormont, A.; Sterk, M.; Vos, C.C.; Opdam, P.F.M.

    2010-01-01

    There is growing evidence that climate change causes an increase in variation in conditions for plant and animal populations. This increase in variation, e.g. amplified inter-annual variability in temperature and rainfall has population dynamical consequences because it raises the variation in vital

  6. Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Cereal Production: Implications for Sustainable Agriculture in Northern Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anslem Bawayelaazaa Nyuor

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the economic impacts of climate change on cereal crop production in Northern Ghana using 240 households comprising maize and sorghum farmers. The Ricardian regression approach was used to examine the economic impacts of climate change based on data generated from a survey conducted in the 2013/2014 farming seasons. Forty-year time-series data of rainfall and temperature from 1974 to 2013, together with cross-sectional data, were used for the empirical analysis. The Ricardian regression estimates for both maize and sorghum showed varying degrees of climate change impacts on net revenues. The results indicated that early season precipitation was beneficial for sorghum, but harmful for maize. However, mid-season precipitation tended to promote maize production. Temperature levels for all seasons impacted negatively on net revenue for both crops, except during the mid-season, when temperature exerted a positive effect on net revenue for sorghum. Our findings suggest that appropriate adaptation strategies should be promoted to reduce the negative impacts of prevailing climate change on cereal crop production.

  7. Transmission Intensity and Drug Resistance in Malaria Population Dynamics : Implications for Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Artzy-Randrup, Yael; Alonso, David; Pascual, Mercedes

    2010-01-01

    Although the spread of drug resistance and the influence of climate change on malaria are most often considered separately, these factors have the potential to interact through altered levels of transmission intensity. The influence of transmission intensity on the evolution of drug resistance has b

  8. Isotope-based reconstruction of the biogeochemical Si cycle : Implications for climate change and human perturbation

    OpenAIRE

    Sun, Xiaole

    2012-01-01

    The global silicon (Si) cycle is of fundamental importance for the global carbon cycle. Diatom growth in the oceans is a major sequestration pathway for carbon on a global scale (often referred to as the biological pump). Patterns of diatoms preserved in marine sediment records can reveal both natural and anthropogenic driven environmental change, which can be used to understand silicon dynamics and climate change. Si isotopes have been shown to have great potential in order to understand the...

  9. Ethical implications of co-benefits rationale within climate change mitigation strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita Vasconcellos Oliveira

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate change mitigation effort is being translated into several actions and discourses that make collateral benefits and their rationale increasingly relevant for sustainability, in such a way that they are now a constant part of the political agenda. Taking a border and consensual perspective, co-benefits are considered here to be emerging advantages of the implementation of measures regarding the lowering of greenhouse gases.Departing from the analysis of policy documents referring to two European urban transportation strategies, the emergent co-benefits are problematized and discussed to better understand their moral aspect. Further ethical reflection is conducted after an analysis of some unintended consequences of co-benefits rationale coming from the mentioned examples. The focus is primarily on the challenges of an integrative moral justification for co-benefits and also for their role in the climate change mitigation effort. We also discuss the limitations of the current normative models that frame co-benefits rationale, from a moral viewpoint and in relation to the overall climate change mitigation strategy.In this article, we propose the concepts of well-being and freedom, as portrayed by Capabilities Approach, as possible guiding notions for the moral and social evaluation of goodness of these emergent benefits and their rationale too. Additionally, some preliminary conclusions are drawn regarding the potential of the presented concepts to favour the climate change mitigation action. Finally, a scenario is drawn where Capabilities Approach is the moral guideline for co-benefits rationale showing this way its potential in terms of enhancing climate change mitigation strategy.

  10. Public attitudes to climate change and carbon mitigation—Implications for energy-associated behaviours

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This work explores public opinions regarding climate change and mitigation options and examines how psychological factors, such as attitudes, norms, and willingness to pay, determine self-reported energy-efficient behaviour. The aim is to create knowledge for the design and implementation of policy measures. The results of an opinion poll conducted in 2005 and 2010 are compared. The number of respondents favouring new technologies as a way to reduce emissions was substantially lower in 2010 than in 2005, whereas there was an increase in the number of people who acknowledged that lifestyle changes are necessary to counteract climate changes. This indicates an increased awareness among the public of the need for lifestyle changes, which could facilitate implementation of policies promoting environmental behaviour. Renewable energy and energy saving measures were ranked as the top two measures for mitigating climate change in both polls. In determining which energy behaviours of the public are determined by psychological factors, an analysis of the 2010 survey revealed that respondents with pro-environmental attitudes towards global warming favour significantly increased use of renewable energy technologies and greater engagement in energy-efficient behaviours. - Highlights: ► Public opinion place priority to environmental issues and beliefs to change current lifestyle. ► A decline in favoring new technologies as a way to reduce emissions in 2010 compare to 2005 poll. ► Environmental attitudes relate to favor of renewable energy technologies. ► Environmental attitudes relate to households energy efficient behaviour

  11. Environmental effects on germination phenology of co-occurring eucalypts: implications for regeneration under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rawal, Deepa S; Kasel, Sabine; Keatley, Marie R; Nitschke, Craig R

    2015-09-01

    Germination is considered one of the important phenological stages that are influenced by environmental factors, with timing and abundance determining plant establishment and recruitment. This study investigates the influence of temperature, soil moisture and light on the germination phenology of six Eucalyptus species from two co-occurring groups of three species representing warm-dry and cool-moist sclerophyll forests. Data from germination experiments were used to calibrate the germination module of the mechanistic model TACA-GEM, to evaluate germination phenology under a range of climate change scenarios. With the exception of E. polyanthemos, the optimal niche for all species was characterised by cool-moist stratification, low light, cool temperatures and high soil moisture. Model results indicated that of the warm-dry species, Eucalyptus microcarpa exhibited greater germination and establishment under projected changes of warmer drier conditions than its co-occurring species Eucalyptus polyanthemos and Eucalyptus tricarpa which suggests that E. microcarpa could maintain its current distribution under a warmer and drier climate in southeastern Australia. Among the cool-moist species, Eucalyptus radiata was the only species that established under projected climate change of the 2080s but at such a low probability that its persistence compared to Eucalyptus obliqua and Eucalyptus sieberi cannot be posited. For all cool-moist species, germination did not benefit from the phenological shifts they displayed. This study successfully demonstrated environmental effects on germination phenology and how a shift in climate can influence the timing and success of recruitment. PMID:25409871

  12. Environmental effects on germination phenology of co-occurring eucalypts: implications for regeneration under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rawal, Deepa S.; Kasel, Sabine; Keatley, Marie R.; Nitschke, Craig R.

    2015-09-01

    Germination is considered one of the important phenological stages that are influenced by environmental factors, with timing and abundance determining plant establishment and recruitment. This study investigates the influence of temperature, soil moisture and light on the germination phenology of six Eucalyptus species from two co-occurring groups of three species representing warm-dry and cool-moist sclerophyll forests. Data from germination experiments were used to calibrate the germination module of the mechanistic model TACA-GEM, to evaluate germination phenology under a range of climate change scenarios. With the exception of E. polyanthemos, the optimal niche for all species was characterised by cool-moist stratification, low light, cool temperatures and high soil moisture. Model results indicated that of the warm-dry species, Eucalyptus microcarpa exhibited greater germination and establishment under projected changes of warmer drier conditions than its co-occurring species Eucalyptus polyanthemos and Eucalyptus tricarpa which suggests that E. microcarpa could maintain its current distribution under a warmer and drier climate in southeastern Australia. Among the cool-moist species, Eucalyptus radiata was the only species that established under projected climate change of the 2080s but at such a low probability that its persistence compared to Eucalyptus obliqua and Eucalyptus sieberi cannot be posited. For all cool-moist species, germination did not benefit from the phenological shifts they displayed. This study successfully demonstrated environmental effects on germination phenology and how a shift in climate can influence the timing and success of recruitment.

  13. Potential Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment in the United States and Implications for Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, D.

    2012-12-01

    The built environment consists of components that have been made by humans at a range of scales from small (e.g., houses, shopping malls) to large (e.g., transportation networks) to highly modified landscapes such as cities. The impacts of climate change on the built environment, therefore, may have a multitude of effects on humans and the land. The impact of climate change may be exacerbated by the interaction of different events that singly may be minor, but together may have a synergistic set of impacts that are significant. Also, there may be feedback mechanisms wherein the built environment, particularly in the form of cities, may affect weather and the climate on local and regional scales. Besides having a host of such interactions, the impacts of climate change on urban areas will likely have thresholds, below which effects are incidental or of mild consequence, but beyond which the effects quickly become major. Hence, a city may be able to cope with prolonged heat waves, but if this is combined with severe drought, the overall result could be significant or even catastrophic, as accelerating demand for energy to cooling taxes water supplies needed both for energy supply and municipal water needs. Moreover, urban areas may be affected by changes in daily and seasonal high or low temperatures or precipitation, which may have a much more prolonged impact than the direct effect of these events. Thus, the cumulative impacts of multiple events may be more severe than those of any single event. Primary hazards include sea level rise and coastal storms, heat waves, intense precipitation, drought, extreme wind events, urban heat islands, and secondary air pollutants, and cold air events including frozen precipitation. Indicators need to be developed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities. Overall, indicators of climate change on the built environment

  14. Failed development and vulnerability to climate change in central Asia: implications for food security and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janes, Craig R

    2010-07-01

    This article presents results of research undertaken to identify factors that affect the vulnerability of rural Mongolian herders to climate change. Findings suggest that models of market development instituted since 1990 have failed to recognize and support key elements of the pastoralist adaptive strategy. A retreating state presence has led to the collapse of regulatory regimes needed to safeguard critical common resources. This in turn has produced considerable social differentiation in the countryside, a breakdown in cooperative institutions, and conflicts over water and pasture. In a context of climate change, these changes seriously threaten the sustainability of the rural economy, leading to livelihood insecurity, growing rural poverty, and increasing rates of migration to shantytowns surrounding the capital city of Ulaanbaatar. The newly vulnerable poor are at higher risk for poor health and malnutrition. PMID:20566560

  15. Implications of projected climate change for groundwater recharge in the western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meixner, Thomas; Manning, Andrew H.; Stonestrom, David A.; Allen, Diana M.; Ajami, Hoori; Blasch, Kyle W.; Brookfield, Andrea E.; Castro, Christopher L.; Clark, Jordan F.; Gochis, David J.; Flint, Alan L.; Neff, Kirstin L.; Niraula, Rewati; Rodell, Matthew; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Singha, Kamini; Walvoord, Michelle A.

    2016-03-01

    Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100° longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10-20% in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed

  16. Implications of climate change on wind erosion of agricultural lands in the Columbia plateau

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B.S. Sharratt

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change may impact soil health and productivity as a result of accelerated or decelerated rates of erosion. Previous studies suggest a greater risk of wind erosion on arid and semi-arid lands due to loss of biomass under a future warmer climate. There have been no studies conducted to assess the impact of climate change on wind erosion in the Columbia Plateau of the Pacific Northwest United States where wind erosion of agricultural lands can cause exceedance of national air quality standards. The Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS was used to assess wind erosion and PM10 (particulate matter ≤10 µm in aerodynamic diameter emissions under a future climate projected by downscaling 18 Global Climate Models (GCM for a conservative emissions pathway. Wind erosion simulations were conducted at Lacrosse and Lind, WA and Moro, OR on a winter wheat-summer fallow (WW-SF rotation and at Lind on an additional winter wheat-camelina-summer fallow (WW-Cam-SF rotation. Each rotation was subject to conservation or conventional tillage practices for a baseline (1970–1999 and mid-21st century climate (2035–2064. A significant increase in temperature and nominal increases in precipitation were projected by an ensemble of climate models for the Columbia Plateau by the mid-21st century. Soil and PM10 losses were 25–84% lower for a mid-21st century climate, due in part to greater biomass production associated with CO2 fertilization and warmer temperatures. The reduction in soil and PM10 loss is projected to be more apparent for conservation tillage practices in the future. Soil and PM10 losses were greater from a WW-Cam-SF rotation than WW-SF rotation when conservation tillage practices were employed during the fallow phase of the rotations. Despite accounting for differences in the length of each rotation, annual soil and PM10 losses remained higher for the WW-Cam-SF rotation than the WW-SF rotation. Soil and PM10 losses were more variable across

  17. Potential Impacts and Management Implications of Climate Change on Tampa Bay Estuary Critical Coastal Habitats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherwood, Edward T.; Greening, Holly S.

    2014-02-01

    The Tampa Bay estuary is a unique and valued ecosystem that currently thrives between subtropical and temperate climates along Florida's west-central coast. The watershed is considered urbanized (42 % lands developed); however, a suite of critical coastal habitats still persists. Current management efforts are focused toward restoring the historic balance of these habitat types to a benchmark 1950s period. We have modeled the anticipated changes to a suite of habitats within the Tampa Bay estuary using the sea level affecting marshes model under various sea level rise (SLR) scenarios. Modeled changes to the distribution and coverage of mangrove habitats within the estuary are expected to dominate the overall proportions of future critical coastal habitats. Modeled losses in salt marsh, salt barren, and coastal freshwater wetlands by 2100 will significantly affect the progress achieved in "Restoring the Balance" of these habitat types over recent periods. Future land management and acquisition priorities within the Tampa Bay estuary should consider the impending effects of both continued urbanization within the watershed and climate change. This requires the recognition that: (1) the Tampa Bay estuary is trending towards a mangrove-dominated system; (2) the current management paradigm of "Restoring the Balance" may no longer provide realistic, attainable goals; (3) restoration that creates habitat mosaics will prove more resilient in the future; and (4) establishing subtidal and upslope "refugia" may be a future strategy in this urbanized estuary to allow sensitive habitat types (e.g., seagrass and salt barren) to persist under anticipated climate change and SLR impacts.

  18. Climate Change and Groundwater-Implications for Global Food and Water Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, M. D.; Earman, S.; Funk, C. C.

    2011-12-01

    Current projections of 21st Century climate change indicate that warming temperatures and changing precipitation may threaten water sources in many regions. Many projections have been developed of the potential impacts on surface water supplies, but few have yet been developed for groundwater systems. Groundwater systems, though, may be quite vulnerable to the effects of climate change, with changes in precipitation amounts and timing directly challenging recharge and pumpage in many settings, and the effects of warming on evapotranspiration demands and on the intensities of rainfall and runoff indirectly impacting groundwater recharge and discharge rates and locations. Another potential indirect impact of warming on groundwater may be through changes in precipitation form. In many regions, groundwater recharge is preferentially derived from melting snowpacks, because seasonal snowpacks accumulate precipitation from multiple storms prior to releasing it in slow steady streams that are well suited for possible recharge, especially in relatively dry settings. Loss of snowpacks due to warming trends, like those in western North America, is likely to disrupt and, in many settings, decrease past recharge patterns and totals, and indeed recharge may be even more vulnerable to warming effects than is surface runoff in many settings. These potential impacts on groundwater should be of widespread concern because groundwater pumpage supplies much of the water used for irrigated agriculture globally. Recent mapping (by others) has identified broad areas where groundwater withdrawals are outpacing recharge rates beneath Pakistan and northwestern India, the Great Plains of North America, parts of northern Argentina and Bolivia, large parts of central Asia, and elsewhere. Notably, many of these same areas are on the ramparts of mountain ranges that may be particularly prone to loss of snowpack under even moderate warming trends, e.g., as indicated by having large fractions of

  19. Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Human Health Implications in the Asia Pacific Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashim, Jamal Hisham; Hashim, Zailina

    2016-03-01

    The Asia Pacific region is regarded as the most disaster-prone area of the world. Since 2000, 1.2 billion people have been exposed to hydrometeorological hazards alone through 1215 disaster events. The impacts of climate change on meteorological phenomena and environmental consequences are well documented. However, the impacts on health are more elusive. Nevertheless, climate change is believed to alter weather patterns on the regional scale, giving rise to extreme weather events. The impacts from extreme weather events are definitely more acute and traumatic in nature, leading to deaths and injuries, as well as debilitating and fatal communicable diseases. Extreme weather events include heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, tropical cyclones, heavy rain, and snowfalls. Globally, within the 20-year period from 1993 to 2012, more than 530 000 people died as a direct result of almost 15 000 extreme weather events, with losses of more than US$2.5 trillion in purchasing power parity.

  20. Climate change implications and use of early warning systems for global dust storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harriman, Lindsey M.

    2014-01-01

    With increased changes in land cover and global climate, early detection and warning of dust storms in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts. Human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns influence dust storms. More research is needed to analyse these factors of dust mobilisation to create more certainty for the fate of vulnerable populations and ecosystems in the future. Early warning and communication systems, when in place and effectively implemented, can offer some relief to these vulnerable areas. As an issue that affects many regions of the world, there is a profound need to understand the potential changes and ultimately create better early warning systems for dust storms.

  1. Climate change and migration in developing countries: evidence and implications for PRISE countries

    OpenAIRE

    Waldinger, Maria; Fankhauser, Samuel

    2015-01-01

    Headline issue: This paper informs the development community about the effects of climate change on migration patterns within and out of developing countries. It concentrates on the economic aspects of migration and on information that is relevant for the six semi-arid countries that are the focus of the PRISE (Pathways to Resilience in Semi-Arid Economies) project: Burkina Faso, Senegal, Kenya, Tanzania, Pakistan and Tajikistan. Policy intervention is required to reduce potential negative...

  2. GAIA: A Project for Exploring Risks and Policy Implications of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpkins, S.; Paxton, L. J.; Babin, S. M.; Pikas, C. K.; Schaefer, R. K.; Swartz, W. H.; Weiss, M.; Darrin, A.

    2010-12-01

    The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory is bringing resources together to create a support environment to address the impact of climate change on national interests with the Global Assimilation of Information for Action (GAIA) project. GAIA is meant to explore consequences, gaps, and resolutions for specific issues that arise from consequences of climate change. For looking at national issues, the usual approach is to 'map' a problem space and 'explore' a solution space, often from the perspective of one sponsoring agency. However, a multi-use application such as GAIA is meant to be responsive to all requests from a myriad of potential perspectives. Symposia and seminars are helpful in scoping issues and gathering information from assembled subject matter experts (SMEs). At APL we have been researching the efficacy of collaborative event designs which provide more robust data collection than the typical seminar, involve more diversity within the community of practice and provide quantitative analysis to underpin subjective conclusions. Participants will be asked to incorporate risk mitigation and behavioral economics into derived recommendations. APL has developed unique data capture methodologies that lend themselves to discovering innovative practices and allowing for deliberate selection of beneficial but less than ideal options; this is seen when the ideal solution has low probability of success or is impractical. The result is a balanced strategy developed by an informed cadre. It is through this process that APL intends to generate robust understanding of community requirements for GAIA and inform an application capable of examining climate change solution space.

  3. Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    According to the National Academy of Sciences in American,the Earth's surface temperature has risen by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated warming during the past two decades. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.Human activities have altered the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases-primarily carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The heat-trapping property of these gases is undisputed although uncertainties exist about exactly how earth's climate responds to them.

  4. Implications of the New UKCP09 Probabilistic Climate Change Scenarios for Water Resource Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    New, M. G.; Serrano, A.; Wade, S.; Christierson, B.

    2009-12-01

    The UK Met Office (UKMO) has recently released a new set of high-resolution climate change scenarios for the UK, named UKCP09, which are expressed in terms of probability distributions. These scenarios are based on a Bayesian analysis of perturbed-physics ensembles of regional and global versions of the UKMO climate model, combined with the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble. In this paper we compare different approaches to sampling from the UKCP09 distributions for use in strategic water resources planning, using a case study of the Thames catchment in the UK. We compare latin hypercube sampling, bounding box sampling, and the sampling method recommended in current Environment Agency guidelines, and how these differences propagate through a water resources model into calculations of deployable output. We also evaluate shortcomings of the UKCP09 projections with respect to water resources planning.

  5. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century. 19 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

  6. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century

  7. Implications of global climate change on water resources of the south Asian region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An assessment of future changes in the mean and/or variances of hydrological parameters due to anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases is much warranted for south Asia for developing adaptive response strategies. The evolution of changes in surface meteorological as well as hydrological parameters in the transient numerical experiments with the current state-of-art coupled climate models holds much promise for a better understanding of the interannual variability of climate and its change on a regional scale. A plausible future hydrological scenario for the south Asian region based on the numerical results obtained from the reference control and greenhouse warming simulations (using the Business-as-Usual scenario of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere) with the Hamburg climate model is presented in this paper. For validation of regional-scale model-simulated hydrology and the assessment of future changes, analysis of data has been performed for annual mean conditions as well as for two seasons, namely, winter (December to February) and summer (June to August). Their results suggest a rise in annual mean surface air temperature of about 1.0 to 2.5 C over the ocean and between 2.0 to 4.5 C over the land regions of south Asia during the next hundred years. During the NH-winter, surface warming in the land regions of India and China is considerably higher (3.6 C) than during the NH-summer (2.7 C). The model simulates an increase in total (averaged for land points over the study area) annual precipitation of about 16 cm per year in a warmer atmosphere

  8. Implications of Expected Climate Change in the Eastern African Coastal Region: an Overview

    OpenAIRE

    Ogallo, L.J.; Alusa, A.L.

    1992-01-01

    Anticipated global warming as a result of the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere was the most important subject discussed during the fifteenth session of the Governing Council of UNEP and at the Second World Climate Conference. The so-called greenhouse effect is a most pressing environmental problem to the extent that it involves many scientific disciplines and hence presents major challenges. The greenhouse gases (CO2,' CFCs, CH4, N2O, O3, etc.) have the effect of changing the ...

  9. Water Providers and Trade Groups Wake Up to Climate Change: Implications for the Research Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udall, B.

    2008-12-01

    In just the last two years, U.S. water providers and water trade groups have begun to take notice of the impacts of climate change on their water systems and many now realize that they can no longer rely on climate stationarity for operations or for planning. In addition, many of these providers are facing additional stress from rapid population growth, aging infrastructure, emerging pollutants, required environmental flow releases, already allocated water supplies, and the need to mitigate their own, frequently significant, greenhouse gases. They are asking difficult questions of the scientific community about the quality and suitability of current climate theory, data and projections, especially in their region, for the purpose of decision making. Given the potentially very expensive adaptations such as constructing sea walls, building new reservoirs, or acquiring new water, they need answers sooner rather than later and are not about to wait while the normal pace of scientific discourse occurs. Some have already taken matters into their own hands: the American Water Works Research Foundation (soon to become the Water Research Foundation) has established a multi-year strategic initiative at $1m year to identify and fund research projects and is seeking at Congressional authorization for more funding. These entities have significant political resources and clout - the Water Utility Climate Alliance represents over 30m consumers in 5 key states and the Association of Metropolitan Water Agencies serves more than 130m customers. These entities are very likely to demand more and higher quality results from the research and consulting communities in the very near future. How can and how should the scientific community engage with this critical set of stakeholders? How will research be impacted by these new players and demands? And what might the nation do to meet this critical need?

  10. Climate Change Schools Project...

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinzey, Krista

    2010-01-01

    This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools Project…

  11. Implications of electric power sector restructuring on climate change mitigation in Argentina

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hasson, G.; Bouille, D. [Instituto de Economia Energetica, (Argentina); Redlinger, R. [UNEP, (Denmark)

    2000-05-01

    The Argentine electricity industry has undergone fundamental reforms since 1992, involving large-scale privatisation, and competition in generation and wholesale power markets. In terms of climate change mitigation, these reforms have had the beneficial effect of encouraging improved generation efficiency among thermal power plants and improved end-use consumption efficiency among large industrial firms. However, the reforms have also had the negative effect (from a climate change perspective) of encouraging an ever-increasing use of natural gas combustion for electricity generation, greatly diminishing the role of hydroelectric power which had previously played an important role in the Agentine electricity sector. This report examines the current structure and regulations of the Argentine electricity system and analyses the forces at work which are influencing current technology choices, both in terms of power generation and end-use consumption. The report goes on to examine international experiences in promoting renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies; and finally, the report considers the applicability of these various policy mechanisms within the Agentine context. (EHS)

  12. Implications of climate change on human comfort in buildings: evidence from Nkontompo community of Sekondi-Takoradi, Ghana

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amos-Abanyie, S. [Kwame Nkrumah Univ. of Science and Technology, Kumasi (GH)

    2006-07-01

    Climate change has become the most talked about issue in recent times. The impact of climate change is likely to become more evident in the coming decades. Currently, atmospheric conditions, especially in the dry season, are getting hotter and drier with increased heat waves. Increased demand for air conditioning for space cooling as a result of internal discomfort in buildings is already manifesting. This could put an additional stress on the already over-burdened energy capactiy of the nation. The study on implications of climate change on human comfort in buidlings was conducted in Nkontompo community, a suburb of Sekondi-Takoradi Metropolitan area of the Shama-Ahanta District of the Western Region of Ghana. The objectives of this study are to assemble and disseminate information about some of the possible impacts of climate change on the built environment. This is to set the platform for building professionals to identify possible adaptive measures to serve as basis for development of standards to maintain and enhance the quality of life in buildings. The results showed that there were significant changes in temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. A rise in temperature and humidity levels constitutes a potential hazard to health and human comfort and accelerates many degradation processes and material damage. Subsequently, the amount of energy needed to maintain the condition of air in spaces at comfort levels keeps increasing. It is therefore imperative that landlords and other property owners should be effectively guided by qualified professionals within the framework of policy guidelines based on sound research.

  13. Resource limits and conversion efficiency with implications for climate change and California's energy supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croft, Gregory Donald

    There are two commonly-used approaches to modeling the future supply of mineral resources. One is to estimate reserves and compare the result to extraction rates, and the other is to project from historical time series of extraction rates. Perceptions of abundant oil supplies in the Middle East and abundant coal supplies in the United States are based on the former approach. In both of these cases, an approach based on historical production series results in a much smaller resource estimate than aggregate reserve numbers. This difference is not systematic; natural gas production in the United States shows a strong increasing trend even though modest reserve estimates have resulted in three decades of worry about the gas supply. The implication of a future decline in Middle East oil production is that the market for transportation fuels is facing major changes, and that alternative fuels should be analyzed in this light. Because the U.S. holds very large coal reserves, synthesizing liquid hydrocarbons from coal has been suggested as an alternative fuel supply. To assess the potential of this process, one has to look at both the resource base and the net efficiency. The three states with the largest coal production declines in the 1996 to 2006 period are among the top 5 coal reserve holders, suggesting that gross coal reserves are a poor indicator of future production. Of the three categories of coal reserves reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, reserves at existing mines is the narrowest category and is approximately the equivalent of proved developed oil reserves. By this measure, Wyoming has the largest coal reserves in the U.S., and it accounted for all of U.S. coal production growth over the 1996 to 2006 time period. In Chapter 2, multi-cycle Hubbert curve analysis of historical data of coal production from 1850 to 2007 demonstrates that U.S. anthracite and bituminous coal are past their production peak. This result contradicts estimates based

  14. Resource limits and conversion efficiency with implications for climate change and California's energy supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croft, Gregory Donald

    There are two commonly-used approaches to modeling the future supply of mineral resources. One is to estimate reserves and compare the result to extraction rates, and the other is to project from historical time series of extraction rates. Perceptions of abundant oil supplies in the Middle East and abundant coal supplies in the United States are based on the former approach. In both of these cases, an approach based on historical production series results in a much smaller resource estimate than aggregate reserve numbers. This difference is not systematic; natural gas production in the United States shows a strong increasing trend even though modest reserve estimates have resulted in three decades of worry about the gas supply. The implication of a future decline in Middle East oil production is that the market for transportation fuels is facing major changes, and that alternative fuels should be analyzed in this light. Because the U.S. holds very large coal reserves, synthesizing liquid hydrocarbons from coal has been suggested as an alternative fuel supply. To assess the potential of this process, one has to look at both the resource base and the net efficiency. The three states with the largest coal production declines in the 1996 to 2006 period are among the top 5 coal reserve holders, suggesting that gross coal reserves are a poor indicator of future production. Of the three categories of coal reserves reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, reserves at existing mines is the narrowest category and is approximately the equivalent of proved developed oil reserves. By this measure, Wyoming has the largest coal reserves in the U.S., and it accounted for all of U.S. coal production growth over the 1996 to 2006 time period. In Chapter 2, multi-cycle Hubbert curve analysis of historical data of coal production from 1850 to 2007 demonstrates that U.S. anthracite and bituminous coal are past their production peak. This result contradicts estimates based

  15. CLIMATE CHANGE, Change International Negociations?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Xiaosheng

    2009-01-01

    @@ Climate change is one of key threats to human beings who have to deal with.According to Bali Action Plan released after the 2007 Bali Climate Talk held in Indonesia,the United Nations Framework on Climate Change(UNFCCC) has launched a two-year process to negotiate a post-2012 climate arrangement after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 and the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference will seal a final deal on post-2012 climate regime in December,2009.For this,the United Nation Chief Ban Ki Moon called 2009"the year ofclimate change".

  16. Early Paleogene Arctic terrestrial ecosystems affected by the change of polar hydrology under global warming:Implications for modern climate change at high latitudes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gaytha; A.; LANGLOIS

    2010-01-01

    Our understanding of both the role and impact of Arctic environmental changes under the current global warming climate is rather limited despite efforts of improved monitoring and wider assessment through remote sensing technology. Changes of Arctic ecosystems under early Paleogene warming climate provide an analogue to evaluate long-term responses of Arctic environmental alteration to global warming. This study reviews Arctic terrestrial ecosystems and their transformation under marked change of hydrological conditions during the warmest period in early Cenozoic, the Paleocene and Eocene. We describe a new approach to quantitatively reconstruct high latitudinal paleohydrology using compound-specific hydrogen isotope analysis which applies empirically derived genus-specific hydrogen isotope fractionations to in situ biomolecules from fossil plants. We propose a moisture recycling model at the Arctic to explain the reconstructed hydrogen isotope signals of ancient high latitude precipitation during early Paleogene, which bears implications to the likely change of modern Arctic ecosystems under the projected accelerated global warming.

  17. Revisiting the weather effect on energy consumption: Implications for the impact of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We revisit statistical estimates for the relation between weather and energy consumption in Massachusetts using times series for heating degree hours that are calculated from hourly data with different set points and set backs. Using hourly values to calculate heating degree hours supports models that generate more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than models estimated from time series for heating degree-days calculated the traditional way. Furthermore, the set point and set back used to calculate heating degree hours generates statistically measurable differences in the accuracy of out-of-sample forecasts. These results indicate that assuming a set point of 65 °F biases statistical estimates for the effect of a warming climate on energy use. We also quantify a new mechanism by which climate change will affect energy use—the temperature of tap water. As climate warms, the temperature of tap water that supplies hot water tanks rises, which reduces the amount of energy consumed to provide hot water. Finally, we use the statistical models to generate a spatial (1 km×1 km) and temporal (hourly) downscaling of carbon emissions that will be used to simulate a model for atmospheric transport and validate our understanding of the sources and sinks of carbon for the urban atmosphere. - Highlights: • Hourly measures of temperature generate more accurate models of energy use. • Set points other than 65 °F generate more accurate models of energy use. • Temperature of tap water affects energy use via domestic hot water. • Models can be downscaled to generate hourly carbon emissions at 1 km×1 km

  18. Climate change: The necessary, the possible and the desirable Earth League climate statement on the implications for climate policy from the 5th IPCC Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rockström, Johan; Brasseur, Guy; Hoskins, Brian; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schellnhuber, John; Kabat, Pavel; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Gong, Peng; Schlosser, Peter; Máñez Costa, Maria; Humble, April; Eyre, Nick; Gleick, Peter; James, Rachel; Lucena, Andre; Masera, Omar; Moench, Marcus; Schaeffer, Roberto; Seitzinger, Sybil; van der Leeuw, Sander; Ward, Bob; Stern, Nicholas; Hurrell, James; Srivastava, Leena; Morgan, Jennifer; Nobre, Carlos; Sokona, Youba; Cremades, Roger; Roth, Ellinor; Liverman, Diana; Arnott, James

    2014-12-01

    The development of human civilisations has occurred at a time of stable climate. This climate stability is now threatened by human activity. The rising global climate risk occurs at a decisive moment for world development. World nations are currently discussing a global development agenda consequent to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which ends in 2015. It is increasingly possible to envisage a world where absolute poverty is largely eradicated within one generation and where ambitious goals on universal access and equal opportunities for dignified lives are adopted. These grand aspirations for a world population approaching or even exceeding nine billion in 2050 is threatened by substantial global environmental risks and by rising inequality. Research shows that development gains, in both rich and poor nations, can be undermined by social, economic and ecological problems caused by human-induced global environmental change. Climate risks, and associated changes in marine and terrestrial ecosystems that regulate the resilience of the climate system, are at the forefront of these global risks. We, as citizens with a strong engagement in Earth system science and socio-ecological dynamics, share the vision of a more equitable and prosperous future for the world, yet we also see threats to this future from shifts in climate and environmental processes. Without collaborative action now, our shared Earth system may not be able to sustainably support a large proportion of humanity in the decades ahead.

  19. Sensitivity of stream water age to climatic variability and land use change: implications for water quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soulsby, Chris; Birkel, Christian; Geris, Josie; Tetzlaff, Doerthe

    2016-04-01

    Advances in the use of hydrological tracers and their integration into rainfall runoff models is facilitating improved quantification of stream water age distributions. This is of fundamental importance to understanding water quality dynamics over both short- and long-time scales, particularly as water quality parameters are often associated with water sources of markedly different ages. For example, legacy nitrate pollution may reflect deeper waters that have resided in catchments for decades, whilst more dynamics parameters from anthropogenic sources (e.g. P, pathogens etc) are mobilised by very young (5 year), high resolution (daily) isotope time series in modelling studies for different catchments to show how variable stream water age distributions can be a result of hydroclimatic variability and the implications for understanding water quality. We will also use examples from catchments undergoing rapid urbanisation, how the resulting age distributions of stream water change in a predictable way as a result of modified flow paths. The implication for the management of water quality in urban catchments will be discussed.

  20. Economic and Energy Development in China: Policy Options and Implications for Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McElroy, M. B.; Nielsen, C.

    2003-01-23

    The Harvard University Center for the Environment and partner institutions in China established a multidisciplinary program of integrated research on energy-related environmental issues, local air pollution and global climate change, in China and their role in U.S.-Chinese relations. Major research streams included: (a) developing a dynamic, multi-sector model of the Chinese economy that can estimate energy use, emission, and health damages from pollution, and using this model to simulate broad economic effects of market-based pollution-control policies; (b) developing a regionally disaggregated model of technology and investment choice in the Chinese electric power sector; (c) applying an atmospheric chemical tracer transport model to investigate carbon uptake in Eurasis (notably China) and North America, and to inform observational strategies for CO{sub 2} in China and elsewhere.

  1. Patterns and variability in seedling carbon assimilation: implications for tree recruitment under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peltier, Drew M P; Ibáñez, Inés

    2015-01-01

    Predicting future forests' structure and functioning is a critical goal for ecologists, thus information on seedling recruitment will be crucial in determining the composition and structure of future forest ecosystems. In particular, seedlings' photosynthetic response to a changing environment will be a key component determining whether particular species establish enough individuals to maintain populations, as growth is a major determinant of survival. We quantified photosynthetic responses of sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.), pignut hickory (Carya glabra Mill.), northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) and eastern black oak (Quercus velutina Lam.) seedlings to environmental conditions including light habitat, temperature, soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) using extensive in situ gas exchange measurements spanning an entire growing season. We estimated the parameters in a hierarchical Bayesian version of the Farquhar model of photosynthesis, additionally informed by soil moisture and VPD, and found that maximum Rubisco carboxylation (V(cmax)) and electron transport (J(max)) rates showed significant seasonal variation, but not the peaked patterns observed in studies of adult trees. Vapor pressure deficit and soil moisture limited J(max) and V(cmax) for all four species. Predictions indicate large declines in summer carbon assimilation rates under a 3 °C increase in mean annual temperature projected by climate models, while spring and fall assimilation rates may increase. Our model predicts decreases in summer assimilation rates in gap habitats with at least 90% probability, and with 20-99.9% probability in understory habitats depending on species. Predictions also show 70% probability of increases in fall and 52% probability in spring in understory habitats. All species were impacted, but our findings suggest that oak species may be favored in northeastern North America under projected increases in temperature due to superior assimilation rates under

  2. Surface elevation change and vegetation distribution dynamics in a subtropical coastal wetland: Implications for coastal wetland response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Kerrylee; Saintilan, Neil; Woodroffe, Colin D.

    2014-08-01

    The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise is receiving global attention and observed changes in the distribution of mangrove and salt marsh are increasingly associated with global climate change, particularly sea-level and temperature rise, and potentially elevated carbon dioxide. Processes operating over smaller-spatial scales, such as rainfall variability and nutrient enrichment are also proposed as possible short-term drivers of changes in the distribution of mangrove and salt marsh. We consider the response of mangrove and salt marsh in a subtropical estuary to changes in environmental variables over a 12 year period by comparing rates of surface elevation change and vegetation distribution dynamics to hydrological and climatic variables, specifically water level and rainfall. This period of analysis captured inter-annual variability in sea level and rainfall associated with different phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We found that the mangrove and salt marsh trend of increasing elevation was primarily controlled by position within the tidal prism, in this case defined by inundation depth and distance to the tidal channel. Rainfall was not a primary driver of elevation trends in mangrove and salt marsh, but rainfall and water level variability did influence variability in elevation over the study period, though cross-correlation of these factors confounds identification of a single process driving this variability. These results highlight the scale-dependence of coastal wetland vegetation distribution dynamics; the longer-term trend of surface elevation increase and mangrove encroachment of salt marsh correlated with global sea-level trends, while short-term variability in surface elevation was related to local variability in water level and rainfall. Rates of surface elevation increase were found to lag behind rates of water level change within the Tweed River, which may facilitate further expansion of mangrove into salt marsh. This

  3. Implications of climate change on crop water requirements in arid region: An example of Al-Jouf, Saudi Arabia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shakhawat Chowdhury

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated possible implications of climate change on crop water requirements (CWRs from 2011 to 2050 in Al-Jouf, Saudi Arabia. CWR were predicted for four scenarios: (i current temperature and rainfall (S1; (ii temperature in 2050 and current state of rainfall (S2; (iii rainfall in 2050 and current state of temperature (S3 and (iv temperature and rainfall in 2050 (S4. Assuming no change in the regulations relating to agriculture and irrigation in future, CWR were predicted to be 873 and 931 million cubic meters (MCM per year for the S1 and S4 scenarios, respectively, indicating an increase of 58 MCM from 2011 to 2050. On an average, 1 °C increase in temperature may increase the overall CWR by 2.9% in this region. Following linear pattern of increase, slope of CWR was determined as 1.5 MCM/year from 2011, which is equivalent to the CWR of producing approximately 600 tons of wheat/year. The increase of CWR was due to the increase in temperature mainly, while the effect of rainfall changes was minimal. Sensitivity analysis on crop growing seasons showed that the shift of wheat growing season might conserve significant amount of groundwater. This study might be useful in explaining the negative effects of climate change on CWR in Al-Jouf and better planning for water resources management.

  4. Contrasting environmental drivers of adult and juvenile growth in a marine fish: implications for the effects of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, Joyce Jia Lin; Rountrey, Adam Nicholas; Meeuwig, Jessica Jane; Newman, Stephen John; Zinke, Jens; Meekan, Mark Gregory

    2015-06-08

    Many marine fishes have life history strategies that involve ontogenetic changes in the use of coastal habitats. Such ontogenetic shifts may place these species at particular risk from climate change, because the successive environments they inhabit can differ in the type, frequency and severity of changes related to global warming. We used a dendrochronology approach to examine the physical and biological drivers of growth of adult and juvenile mangrove jack (Lutjanus argentimaculatus) from tropical north-western Australia. Juveniles of this species inhabit estuarine environments and adults reside on coastal reefs. The Niño-4 index, a measure of the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) had the highest correlation with adult growth chronologies, with La Niña years (characterised by warmer temperatures and lower salinities) having positive impacts on growth. Atmospheric and oceanographic phenomena operating at ocean-basin scales seem to be important correlates of the processes driving growth in local coastal habitats. Conversely, terrestrial factors influencing precipitation and river runoff were positively correlated with the growth of juveniles in estuaries. Our results show that the impacts of climate change on these two life history stages are likely to be different, with implications for resilience and management of populations.

  5. Climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

  6. Climate Change Implications and Use of Early Warning Systems for Global Dust Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harriman, L.

    2014-12-01

    Increased changes in land cover and global climate have led to increased frequency and/or intensity of dust storms in some regions of the world. Early detection and warning of dust storms, in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts, will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts to people and the environment. Since frequency and intensity of dust storms can vary from region to region, there is a demonstrated need for more research to be conducted over longer periods of time to analyze trends of dust storm events [1]. Dust storms impact their origin area, but also land, water and people a great distance away from where dust finally settles [2, 3]. These transboundary movements and accompanying impacts further warrant the need for global collaboration to help predict the onset, duration and path of a dust storm. Early warning systems can help communicate when a dust storm is occurring, the projected intensity of the dust storm and its anticipated physical impact over a particular geographic area. Development of regional dust storm models, such as CUACE/Dust for East Asia, and monitoring networks, like the Sand and Dust Storm Warning Network operated by the World Meteorological Organization, and the use of remote sensing and satellite imagery derived products [4], including MODIS, are currently being incorporated into early warning and monitoring initiatives. However, to increase future certainty of impacts of dust storms on vulnerable populations and ecosystems, more research is needed to analyze the influences of human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns on dust storm generation, movement and impact. Sources: [1] Goudie, A.S. (2009), Dust storms: recent developments, J Environ. Manage., 90. [2] Lee, H., and Liu, C. (2004), Coping with dust storm events: information, impacts, and policymaking in Taiwan, TAO, 15(5). [3] Marx, S.K., McGowan, H.A., and Balz, K.S. (2009), Long-range dust

  7. Implications of climate change for evaporation from bare soils in a Mediterranean environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aydin, Mehmet; Yano, Tomohisa; Evrendilek, Fatih; Uygur, Veli

    2008-05-01

    The purpose of this study was to predict quantitative changes in evaporation from bare soils in the Mediterranean climate region of Turkey in response to the projections of a regional climate model developed in Japan (hereafter RCM). Daily RCM data for the estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ETr) and soil evaporation were obtained for the periods of 1994--2003 and 2070--2079. Potential evaporation (Ep) from bare soils was calculated using the Penman-Monteith equation with a surface resistance of zero. Simulation of actual soil evaporation (Ea) was carried out using Aydin model (Aydin et al., Ecological Modelling 182:91-105, 2005) combined with Aydin and Uygur (2006, A model for estimating soil water potential of bare fields. In Proceedings of the 18th International Soil Meeting (ISM) on Soils Sustaining Life on Earth, Managing Soil and Technology, Sanliurfa, 477-480pp.) model of predicting soil water potential at the top surface layer of a bare soil, after performances of Aydin model (R2 = 94.0%) and Aydin and Uygur model (R2 = 97.6) were tested. The latter model is based on the relations among potential soil evaporation, hydraulic diffusivity, and soil wetness, with some simplified assumptions. Input parameters of the model are simple and easily obtainable such as climatic parameters used to compute the potential soil evaporation, average diffusivity for the drying soil, and volumetric water content at field capacity. The combination of Aydin and Aydin and Uygur models appeared to be useful in estimating water potential of soils and Ea from bare soils, with only a few parameters. Unlike ETr and Ep projected to increase by 92 and 69 mm (equivalent to 8.0 and 7.3% increases) due to the elevated evaporative demand of the atmosphere, respectively, Ea from bare soils is projected to reduce by 50 mm (equivalent to a 16.5% decrease) in response to a decrease in rainfall by 46% in the Mediterranean region of Turkey by the 2070s predicted by RCM, and consequently

  8. Mercury in coniferous and deciduous upland forests in northern New England, USA: implications of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, J. B.; Friedland, A. J.

    2015-11-01

    Climatic changes in the northeastern US are expected to cause coniferous stands to transition to deciduous stands over the next hundred years. Mercury (Hg) sequestration in forest soils may change as a result. In order to understand potential effects of such a transition, we studied aboveground vegetation and soils at paired coniferous and deciduous stands on eight mountains in Vermont and New Hampshire, USA. Organic horizons at coniferous stands accumulated more total Hg (THg; 42 ± 6 g ha-1) than deciduous stands (30 ± 4 g ha-1). Total Hg pools in the mineral horizons were similar for coniferous (46 ± 8 g ha-1) and deciduous stands (45 ± 7 g ha-1). Soil properties (C, % clay, and pH) explained 56 % of the variation in mineral soil Hg concentration when multiply regressed. Foliar and bole wood Hg concentrations were generally greater for coniferous species than deciduous species. Using allometric equations, we estimated that aboveground accumulation of Hg in foliage and woody biomass was similar between vegetation types but that coniferous stands have significantly smaller annual litterfall fluxes (0.03 g ha-1 yr-1) than deciduous stands (0.24 g ha-1 yr-1). We conclude that organic horizon Hg accumulation is influenced by vegetation type but mineral horizon Hg accumulation is primarily controlled by soil properties. Further investigations into the effect of vegetation type on volatilization, atmospheric deposition, and leaching rates are needed to constrain regional Hg cycling rates.

  9. Adsorption properties of subtropical and tropical variable charge soils: Implications from climate change and biochar amendment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Ren-Kou; Qafoku, Nikolla; Van Ranst, Eric; Li, Jiu-yu; Jiang, Jun

    2016-01-25

    This review paper attempts to summarize the progress made in research efforts conducted over the last years to study the surface chemical properties of the tropical and subtropical soils, usually called variable charge soils, and the way they response to different management practices. The paper is composed of an introductory section that provides a brief discussion on the surface chemical properties of these soils, and five other review sections. The focus of these sections is on the evolution of surface chemical properties during the development of the variable charge properties (second section), interactions between oppositely charged particles and the resulting effects on the soil properties and especially on soil acidity (third section), the surface effects of low molecular weight organic acids sorbed to mineral surfaces and the chemical behavior of aluminum (fourth section), and the crop straw derived biochar induced changes of the surface chemical properties of these soils (fifth section). A discussion on the effect of climate change variables on the properties of the variable charge soils is included at the end of this review paper (sixth section).

  10. Implications of climate change scenarios for agriculture in alpine regions--a case study in the Swiss Rhone catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuhrer, J; Smith, P; Gobiet, A

    2014-09-15

    Coping with climate change in agriculture requires knowledge of trends in agro-climatic conditions with a focus at the smaller scales where decisions are taken. As part of the EU FP7 ACQWA project, the situation was analyzed for agriculture in the case of the Swiss Rhone catchment (Valais) where cultivation of permanent crops (orchards and vineyards) and livestock production are the most important agro-economic activities. The aim of this study was to use daily data from four downscaled and bias corrected transient climate change scenarios to analyze changes in water and temperature related indices over the period 1951-2050 for three locations (Aigle, Sion, Montana) that are representative of different production zones in the catchment. The results indicate that most relevant implications are caused by projected changes in temperature and not in precipitation. They indicate an extension of the thermal growing season with potentially positive effects on pasture and livestock production, most pronounced at the mountain site (Montana), but a trend towards increasing risks of frost in permanent crops and in heat stress for livestock at the valley bottom (Aigle, Sion). The increase in water requirement for irrigation in 2021-2050 relative to 1981-2009 is moderate (4-16%, depending on location). However, in years with low amounts of snow and rain, in small catchments with a nival regime, reduced water supply by rivers could restrict the surface area of grassland that can be irrigated, particularly during springtime. It is concluded that coping with heat-related risks may be most needed at the lower cropland and pasture sites while water-related issues would become more relevant in more elevated locations where pasture-based livestock production is the dominant type of agricultural land use. PMID:23830922

  11. On the uncertainty of phenological responses to climate change and its implication for terrestrial biosphere models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Migliavacca

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Phenology, the timing of recurring life cycle events, controls numerous land surface feedbacks to the climate systems through the regulation of exchanges of carbon, water and energy between the biosphere and atmosphere. Land surface models, however, are known to have systematic errors in the simulation of spring phenology, which potentially could propagate to uncertainty in modeled responses to future climate change. Here, we analyzed the Harvard Forest phenology record to investigate and characterize the sources of uncertainty in phenological forecasts and the subsequent impacts on model forecasts of carbon and water cycling in the future. Using a model-data fusion approach, we combined information from 20 yr of phenological observations of 11 North American woody species with 12 phenological models of different complexity to predict leaf bud-burst.

    The evaluation of different phenological models indicated support for spring warming models with photoperiod limitations and, though to a lesser extent, to chilling models based on the alternating model structure.

    We assessed three different sources of uncertainty in phenological forecasts: parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty, and driver uncertainty. The latter was characterized running the models to 2099 using 2 different IPCC climate scenarios (A1fi vs. B1, i.e. high CO2 emissions vs. low CO2 emissions scenario. Parameter uncertainty was the smallest (average 95% CI: 2.4 day century−1 for scenario B1 and 4.5 day century−1 for A1fi, whereas driver uncertainty was the largest (up to 8.4 day century−1 in the simulated trends. The uncertainty related to model structure is also large and the predicted bud-burst trends as well as the shape of the smoothed projections varied somewhat among models (±7.7 day century−1 for A1fi, ±3.6 day century−1 for B1. The forecast sensitivity of bud-burst to

  12. On the uncertainty of phenological responses to climate change, and implications for a terrestrial biosphere model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Migliavacca

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Phenology, the timing of recurring life cycle events, controls numerous land surface feedbacks to the climate system through the regulation of exchanges of carbon, water and energy between the biosphere and atmosphere.

    Terrestrial biosphere models, however, are known to have systematic errors in the simulation of spring phenology, which potentially could propagate to uncertainty in modeled responses to future climate change. Here, we used the Harvard Forest phenology record to investigate and characterize sources of uncertainty in predicting phenology, and the subsequent impacts on model forecasts of carbon and water cycling. Using a model-data fusion approach, we combined information from 20 yr of phenological observations of 11 North American woody species, with 12 leaf bud-burst models that varied in complexity.

    Akaike's Information Criterion indicated support for spring warming models with photoperiod limitations and, to a lesser extent, models that included chilling requirements.

    We assessed three different sources of uncertainty in phenological forecasts: parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty, and driver uncertainty. The latter was characterized running the models to 2099 using 2 different IPCC climate scenarios (A1fi vs. B1, i.e. high CO2 emissions vs. low CO2 emissions scenario. Parameter uncertainty was the smallest (average 95% Confidence Interval – CI: 2.4 days century−1 for scenario B1 and 4.5 days century−1 for A1fi, whereas driver uncertainty was the largest (up to 8.4 days century−1 in the simulated trends. The uncertainty related to model structure is also large and the predicted bud-burst trends as well as the shape of the smoothed projections varied among models (±7.7 days century−1 for A1fi, ±3.6 days century−1 for B1. The forecast sensitivity of bud-burst to temperature (i.e. days bud-burst advanced per

  13. Nitrogen transformations in intensive aquaculture system and its implication to climate change through nitrous oxide emission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zhen; Lee, Jae Woo; Chandran, Kartik; Kim, Sungpyo; Sharma, Keshab; Brotto, Ariane Coelho; Khanal, Samir Kumar

    2013-02-01

    The rapid development of aquaculture could result in significant environmental concerns such as eutrophication and climate change. However, to date, very few studies have been conducted to investigate nitrogen transformations in aquaculture systems; and specifically the emission of nitrous oxide (N(2)O), which is an important greenhouse gas and ozone-depleting substance. In this study, nitrogen transformations in intensive laboratory-scale Chinese catfish (Clarias fuscus) aquaculture systems were investigated by identifying and quantifying N(2)O emissions. Results indicated that about 1.3% of the nitrogen input was emitted as N(2)O gas. Dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations and feeding rates had significant effects on N(2)O emissions. Higher N(2)O emissions were obtained in aquaculture systems with lower DO concentrations and higher feeding rates. Both nitrification and denitrification appeared to be responsible for the emissions of N(2)O. Key factors which correlated with the N(2)O emission rate in aquaculture systems were NO(2)(-), DO and total ammonia nitrogen concentrations.

  14. The Ethics of Belief, Cognition, and Climate Change Pseudoskepticism: Implications for Public Discourse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torcello, Lawrence

    2016-01-01

    The relationship between knowledge, belief, and ethics is an inaugural theme in philosophy; more recently, under the title "ethics of belief" philosophers have worked to develop the appropriate methodology for studying the nexus of epistemology, ethics, and psychology. The title "ethics of belief" comes from a 19th-century paper written by British philosopher and mathematician W.K. Clifford. Clifford argues that we are morally responsible for our beliefs because (a) each belief that we form creates the cognitive circumstances for related beliefs to follow, and (b) we inevitably influence each other through those beliefs. This study argues that recent cognitive research supports Cliffordian insights regarding patterns of belief formation and social influence. From the confirmation offered by such research, it follows that informational accuracy holds serious ethical significance in public discourse. Although scientific and epistemological matters are not always thought to be linked to normative morality, this study builds on Clifford's initial insights to show their linkage is fundamental to inquiry itself. In turn, Clifford's ethical and epistemic outline can inform a framework grounded in "public reason" under which seemingly opposed science communication strategies (e.g., "information deficit" and "cultural cognition" models) are philosophically united. With public discourse on climate change as the key example, empirically informed and grounded strategies for science communication in the public sphere are considered. PMID:26799170

  15. Tolerance to copper and to salinity in Daphnia longispina: implications within a climate change scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitão, João; Ribeiro, Rui; Soares, Amadeu M V M; Lopes, Isabel

    2013-01-01

    Considering IPPC climate change scenarios, it is pertinent to predict situations where coastal ecosystems already impacted with chemical contamination became exposed to an additional stressor under a future scenario of seawater intrusion. Accordingly, the present study aimed at evaluating if a negative association between tolerance to a metal and to saltwater exists among genotypes of a freshwater organism. For this, five clonal lineages of the cladoceran Daphnia longispina O.F. Müller, exhibiting a differential tolerance to lethal levels of copper, were selected. Each clonal lineage was exposed to lethal and sublethal concentrations of sodium chloride (assumed as a protective surrogate to evaluate the toxicity of increased salinity to freshwater organisms). Mortality, time to release the first brood and total number of neonates per female were monitored and the somatic growth rate and intrinsic rate of natural increase were computed for each clonal lineage. Data here obtained were compared with their lethal responses to copper and significant negative correlations were found. These results suggest that genetically eroded populations of D. longispina, due to copper or salinity, may be particularly susceptible to a later exposure to the other contaminant supporting the multiple stressors differential tolerance.

  16. Mercury in coniferous and deciduous upland forests in Northern New England, USA: implications from climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, J. B.; Friedland, A. J.

    2015-07-01

    Climatic changes in the northeastern US are expected to cause coniferous stands to transition to deciduous stands over the next hundred years. Mercury (Hg) sequestration in forest soils may change as a result. In order to understand potential effects of this transition, we studied aboveground vegetation and soils at paired coniferous and deciduous stands on eight mountains in Vermont and New Hampshire, US. Organic horizons at coniferous stands accumulated more Total Hg (THg) (42 ± 6 g ha-1) than deciduous stands (30 ± 4 g ha-1). Total Hg pools in the mineral horizons were similar for coniferous (46 ± 8 g ha-1) and deciduous stands (45 ± 7 g ha-1). Soil properties (C, % clay, and pH) explained 56 % of the variation in mineral soil Hg concentration when multiple regressed. Foliar and bole wood Hg concentrations were generally greater for coniferous species than deciduous species. We estimated Hg mean residence time (MRT) in the organic and mineral horizons at coniferous and deciduous stands using a simple two-box model. Organic horizon MRT were longer at coniferous stands (183 ± 44 yr) than deciduous stands (65 ± 15 yr). Mineral soil horizon MRT values were also longer for coniferous stands (386 ± 57 yr) than for deciduous stands (188 ± 27 yr). We concluded that organic horizon Hg accumulation is influenced by vegetation type but mineral horizons are primarily affected by soil properties. Further investigations into the effect of vegetation type on volatilization, atmospheric deposition, and leaching rates are needed to constrain regional Hg cycling rates.

  17. Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 2014 Fact sheets Features Commentaries 2014 Multimedia Contacts Climate change and health Fact sheet Reviewed June 2016 ... in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution. Climate change Over the last 50 years, human activities – ...

  18. Balance between climate change mitigation benefits and land use impacts of bioenergy : Conservation implications for European birds

    OpenAIRE

    Meller, Laura; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pironon, Samuel; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Hof, Andries; Cabeza, Mar

    2015-01-01

    Both climate change and habitat modification exert serious pressure on biodiversity. Although climate change mitigation has been identified as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation, bioenergy remains a controversial mitigation action due to its potential negative ecological and socio-economic impacts which arise through habitat modification by land use change. While the debate continues, the separate or simultaneous impacts of both climate change and bioenergy on biodiversity ha...

  19. Changing patterns of the temperature-mortality association by time and location in the US, and implications for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordio, Francesco; Zanobetti, Antonella; Colicino, Elena; Kloog, Itai; Schwartz, Joel

    2015-08-01

    The shape of the non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality varies among cities with different climatic conditions. There has been little examination of how these curves change over space and time. We evaluated the short-term effects of hot and cold temperatures on daily mortality over six 7-year periods in 211 US cities, comprising over 42 million deaths. Cluster analysis was used to group the cities according to similar temperatures and relative humidity. Temperature-mortality functions were calculated using B-splines to model the heat effect (lag 0) and the cold effect on mortality (moving average lags 1-5). The functions were then combined through meta-smoothing and subsequently analyzed by meta-regression. We identified eight clusters. At lag 0, Cluster 5 (West Coast) had a RR of 1.14 (95% CI: 1.11,1.17) for temperatures of 27 °C vs 15.6 °C, and Cluster 6 (Gulf Coast) has a RR of 1.04 (95% CI: 1.03,1.05), suggesting that people are acclimated to their respective climates. Controlling for cluster effect in the multivariate-meta regression we found that across the US, the excess mortality from a 24-h temperature of 27 °C decreased over time from 10.6% to 0.9%. We found that the overall risk due to the heat effect is significantly affected by summer temperature mean and air condition usage, which could be a potential predictor in building climate-change scenarios.

  20. Elevated streamflows increase dam passage by juvenile coho salmon during winter: Implications of climate change in the Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kock, Tobias J.; Liedtke, Theresa L.; Rondorf, Dennis W.; Serl, John D.; Kohn, Mike; Bumbaco, Karin A.

    2012-01-01

    A 4-year evaluation was conducted to determine the proportion of juvenile coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch passing Cowlitz Falls Dam, on the Cowlitz River, Washington, during winter. River and reservoir populations of coho salmon parr were monitored using radiotelemetry to determine if streamflow increases resulted in increased downstream movement and dam passage. This was of interest because fish that pass downstream of Cowlitz Falls Dam become landlocked in Riffe Lake and are lost to the anadromous population. Higher proportions of reservoir-released fish (0.391-0.480) passed Cowlitz Falls Dam than did river-released fish (0.037-0.119). Event-time analyses demonstrated that streamflow increases were important predictors of dam passage rates during the study. The estimated effect of increasing streamflows on the risk of dam passage varied annually and ranged from 9% to 75% for every 28.3 m3/s increase in streamflow. These results have current management implications because they demonstrate the significance of dam passage by juvenile coho salmon during winter months when juvenile fish collection facilities are typically not operating. The results also have future management implications because climate change predictions suggest that peak streamflow timing for many watersheds in the Pacific Northwest will shift from late spring and early summer to winter. Increased occurrence of intense winter flood events is also expected. Our results demonstrate that juvenile coho salmon respond readily to streamflow increases and initiate downstream movements during winter months, which could result in increased passage at dams during these periods if climate change predictions are realized in the coming decades.

  1. Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

    2014-12-01

    Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

  2. Land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change: implications for land-based mitigation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Müller, Christoph; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bonsch, Markus; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Weindl, Isabelle; Biewald, Anne; Rolinski, Susanne

    2015-06-01

    Climate change has impacts on agricultural yields, which could alter cropland requirements and hence deforestation rates. Thus, land-use responses to climate change might influence terrestrial carbon stocks. Moreover, climate change could alter the carbon storage capacity of the terrestrial biosphere and hence the land-based mitigation potential. We use a global spatially explicit economic land-use optimization model to (a) estimate the mitigation potential of a climate policy that provides economic incentives for carbon stock conservation and enhancement, (b) simulate land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change (RCP2.6), and (c) investigate the combined effects throughout the 21st century. The climate policy immediately stops deforestation and strongly increases afforestation, resulting in a global mitigation potential of 191 GtC in 2100. Climate change increases terrestrial carbon stocks not only directly through enhanced carbon sequestration (62 GtC by 2100) but also indirectly through less deforestation due to higher crop yields (16 GtC by 2100). However, such beneficial climate impacts increase the potential of the climate policy only marginally, as the potential is already large under static climatic conditions. In the broader picture, this study highlights the importance of land-use dynamics for modeling carbon cycle responses to climate change in integrated assessment modeling.

  3. Implications of future climate change on agricultural production in tropical West Africa: evidence from the Republic of Benin

    OpenAIRE

    Awoye, Oyémonbadé Hervé Rodrigue

    2015-01-01

    Environmental interlinked problems such as human-induced land cover change, water scarcity, loss in soil fertility, and anthropogenic climate change are expected to affect the viability of agriculture and increase food insecurity in many developing countries. Climate change is certainly the most serious of these challenges for the twenty-first century. The poorest regions of the world – tropical West Africa included – are the most vulnerable due to their high dependence on climate and weather...

  4. Our changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The author presents an overview of the changing climate. Attention is focused on the following: meteorology; weather; climate anomalies; changes in atmospheric composition and global warming; ozone; mathematical models; and climate and politics. In its conclusion, it asks researchers to stay out of a game in which, ultimately, neither science nor politics stands to gain anything

  5. Mathematics of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Halstadtrø, Ida

    2013-01-01

    Mathematics in climate research is rarely mentioned in the everyday conversations or in the media when talking about climate changes. This thesis therefore focus on the central role mathematics plays in climate research, through describing the different models used in predicting future weather and climate. In Chapter 1, a general introduction to climate, its components and feedbacks, and today's status is given. Chapter 2 concentrates on the dynamical models represented by ordinary differenti...

  6. The runaway greenhouse: implications for future climate change, geoengineering and planetary atmospheres.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldblatt, Colin; Watson, Andrew J

    2012-09-13

    The ultimate climate emergency is a 'runaway greenhouse': a hot and water-vapour-rich atmosphere limits the emission of thermal radiation to space, causing runaway warming. Warming ceases only after the surface reaches approximately 1400 K and emits radiation in the near-infrared, where water is not a good greenhouse gas. This would evaporate the entire ocean and exterminate all planetary life. Venus experienced a runaway greenhouse in the past, and we expect that the Earth will in around 2 billion years as solar luminosity increases. But could we bring on such a catastrophe prematurely, by our current climate-altering activities? Here, we review what is known about the runaway greenhouse to answer this question, describing the various limits on outgoing radiation and how climate will evolve between these. The good news is that almost all lines of evidence lead us to believe that is unlikely to be possible, even in principle, to trigger full a runaway greenhouse by addition of non-condensible greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. However, our understanding of the dynamics, thermodynamics, radiative transfer and cloud physics of hot and steamy atmospheres is weak. We cannot therefore completely rule out the possibility that human actions might cause a transition, if not to full runaway, then at least to a much warmer climate state than the present one. High climate sensitivity might provide a warning. If we, or more likely our remote descendants, are threatened with a runaway greenhouse, then geoengineering to reflect sunlight might be life's only hope. Injecting reflective aerosols into the stratosphere would be too short-lived, and even sunshades in space might require excessive maintenance. In the distant future, modifying Earth's orbit might provide a sustainable solution. The runaway greenhouse also remains relevant in planetary sciences and astrobiology: as extrasolar planets smaller and nearer to their stars are detected, some will be in

  7. Balance between climate change mitigation benefits and land use impacts of bioenergy : Conservation implications for European birds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meller, Laura; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pironon, Samuel; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Hof, Andries; Cabeza, Mar

    2015-01-01

    Both climate change and habitat modification exert serious pressure on biodiversity. Although climate change mitigation has been identified as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation, bioenergy remains a controversial mitigation action due to its potential negative ecological and socio-e

  8. The Runaway Greenhouse: implications for future climate change, geoengineering and planetary atmospheres

    OpenAIRE

    Goldblatt, Colin; Watson, Andrew J.

    2012-01-01

    The ultimate climate emergency is a "runaway greenhouse": a hot and water vapour rich atmosphere limits the emission of thermal radiation to space, causing runaway warming. Warming ceases only once the surface reaches ~1400K and emits radiation in the near-infrared, where water is not a good greenhouse gas. This would evaporate the entire ocean and exterminate all planetary life. Venus experienced a runaway greenhouse in the past, and we expect that Earth will in around 2 billion years as sol...

  9. The Runaway Greenhouse: implications for future climate change, geoengineering and planetary atmospheres

    CERN Document Server

    Goldblatt, Colin

    2012-01-01

    The ultimate climate emergency is a "runaway greenhouse": a hot and water vapour rich atmosphere limits the emission of thermal radiation to space, causing runaway warming. Warming ceases only once the surface reaches ~1400K and emits radiation in the near-infrared, where water is not a good greenhouse gas. This would evaporate the entire ocean and exterminate all planetary life. Venus experienced a runaway greenhouse in the past, and we expect that Earth will in around 2 billion years as solar luminosity increases. But could we bring on such a catastrophe prematurely, by our current climate-altering activities? Here we review what is known about the runaway greenhouse to answer this question, describing the various limits on outgoing radiation and how climate will evolve between these. The good news is that almost all lines of evidence lead us to believe that is unlikely to be possible, even in principle, to trigger full a runaway greenhouse by addition of non-condensible greenhouse gases such as carbon diox...

  10. Implications of NARCCAP on the Likelihood of Regional Climate Change and an Integrated U.S. Water-Impact Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlosser, C. A.; Gao, X.; Blanc, E.; Strzepek, K. M.; Monier, E.

    2012-12-01

    In order for regional, integrated impact and adaptation assessments to be regarded as risk-based approaches, they must encompass to the fullest extent possible, the range of regional and global climate-change uncertainties as well as consistent economic pathways that underlie them. As such, the computational burden on any probabilistic construction (i.e. frequency distribution) that quantify these uncertainties is substantial when considering the large ensembles required from multiple, regional climate models. Thus, hybrid or statistical methods that encapsulate salient trend signals from regional climate models yet avoid the exhaustive amount of explicit simulations but remain consistent with the socio-economic pathway under which it is forced, would be highly desirable. We therefore present a hybrid frequency distribution (HFD) approach that extends the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework to provide probabilistic projections of regional climate changes. This procedure constructs meta-ensembles of the regional hydro-climate, combining projections from the MIT IGSM that represent global-scale uncertainties with regionally resolved climate-change kernel (CCK) patterns from archived climate-model projections. The approach has been extended to the climate-model outputs of the North American Regional Climate Change Project (NARCCAP). Specifically, we compare the NARCCAP CCKs to those of CMIP3, CMIP5, as well as the corresponding climate models that force the NARCCAP models. Many of the NARCCAP CCKs retain the large-scale patterns of their climate-model counterparts. However, regional and seasonal exceptions are also seen and carry with them important important climate-impact consequences. We then assess the consequences of the NARCCAP HFDs to a U.S. water-impact, climate-change assessment performed by the Water Resource System (WRS) of the IGSM.

  11. Asking about climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise

    2014-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that climate change will strongly affect people across the globe. Likely impacts of and adaptations to climate change are drawing the attention of researchers from many disciplines. In adaptation research focus is often on perceptions of climate change...... and on vulnerability and adaptation strategies in a particular region or community. But how do we research the ways in which people experience changing climatic conditions, the processes of decision-making, the actual adaptation strategies carried out and the consequences of these for actors living and dealing...... with climate change? On the basis of a literature review of all articles published in Global Environmental Change between 2000 and 2012 that deal with human dimensions of climate change using qualitative methods this paper provides some answers but also raises some concerns. The period and length of fieldwork...

  12. Early and Middle Jurassic climate changes: implications for palaeoceanography and tectonics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korte, Christoph; Hesselbo, Stephen; Ullmann, Clemens Vinzenz;

    2014-01-01

    three pronounced oxygen isotope ‘Ice Age’ cycles, and the subsequent well known Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic ‘supergreenhouse’ Event is followed by very warm seawater temperatures in the late Toarcian. Moreover, a very pronounced and effective cooling occurred during the latest Toarcian and early Aalenian...... (Early-Middle Jurassic Boundary Event) resulted in substantial expansion of Arctic climates to palaeolatitudes as low as 45° and in distinctly cooler seawater temperatures in lower latitude European seas. At least the extensive cooling at the Early-Middle Jurassic Boundary Event was most likely driven...

  13. Climate change and climate systems influence and control the atmospheric dispersion of desert dust: implications for human health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, Dale W.

    2010-01-01

    The global dispersion of desert dust through Earth’s atmosphere is greatly influenced by temperature. Temporal analyses of ice core data have demonstrated that enhanced dust dispersion occurs during glacial events. This is due to an increase in ice cover, which results in an increase in drier terrestrial cover. A shorter temporal analysis of dust dispersion data over the last 40 years has demonstrated an increase in dust transport. Climate systems or events such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Indian Ocean subtropical High, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and El Nino-Sothern Oscillation are known to influence global short-term dust dispersion occurrence and transport routes. Anthropogenic influences on dust transport include deforestation, harmful use of topsoil for agriculture as observed during the American Dust Bowl period, and the creation of dry seas (Aral Sea) and lakes (Lake Owens in California and Lake Chad in North Africa) through the diversion of source waters (for irrigation and drinking water supplies). Constituents of desert dust both from source regions (pathogenic microorganisms, organic and inorganic toxins) and those scavenged through atmospheric transport (i.e., industrial and agricultural emissions) are known to directly impact human and ecosystem health. This presentation will present a review of global scale dust storms and how these events can be both a detriment and benefit to various organisms in downwind environments.

  14. Rural Households’ Adaptation to Climate Change and its Implications for Policy Designs in Lijiang, China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zheng, Yuan

    , limited research has addressed adaptation and vulnerability from a temporal perspective, in terms of how these have evolved in the past and how they may develop in the future. Moreover, it remains poorly understood what shapes adaptation decision-making and how this can be measured quantitatively....... The thesis, carried out in three mountain villages in southwest China, seeks to advance the understanding of local adaptation process and its implications for vulnerability and policy designs. In particular, the research contributes to quantitative assessment of current and forward-looking adaptation...

  15. A complete Holocene record of trematode-bivalve infection and implications for the response of parasitism to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntley, John Warren; Fürsich, Franz T.; Alberti, Matthias; Hethke, Manja; Liu, Chunlian

    2014-12-01

    Increasing global temperature and sea-level rise have led to concern about expansions in the distribution and prevalence of complex-lifecycle parasites (CLPs). Indeed, numerous environmental variables can influence the infectivity and reproductive output of many pathogens. Digenean trematodes are CLPs with intermediate invertebrate and definitive vertebrate hosts. Global warming and sea level rise may affect these hosts to varying degrees, and the effect of increasing temperature on parasite prevalence has proven to be nonlinear and difficult to predict. Projecting the response of parasites to anthropogenic climate change is vital for human health, and a longer term perspective (104 y) offered by the subfossil record is necessary to complement the experimental and historical approaches of shorter temporal duration (10-1 to 103 y). We demonstrate, using a high-resolution 9,600-y record of trematode parasite traces in bivalve hosts from the Holocene Pearl River Delta, that prevalence was significantly higher during the earliest stages of sea level rise, significantly lower during the maximum transgression, and statistically indistinguishable in the other stages of sea-level rise and delta progradation. This stratigraphic paleobiological pattern represents the only long-term high-resolution record of pathogen response to global change, is consistent with fossil and recent data from other marine basins, and is instructive regarding the future of disease. We predict an increase in trematode prevalence concurrent with anthropogenic warming and marine transgression, with negative implications for estuarine macrobenthos, marine fisheries, and human health.

  16. Our Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newhouse, Kay Berglund

    2007-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses how global warming makes the leap from the headlines to the classroom with thought-provoking science experiments. To teach her fifth-grade students about climate change, the author starts with a discussion of the United States' local climate. They extend this idea to contrast the local climate with others,…

  17. Effects of ice and floods on vegetation in streams in cold regions: implications for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lind, Lovisa; Nilsson, Christer; Weber, Christine

    2014-11-01

    Riparian zones support some of the most dynamic and species-rich plant communities in cold regions. A common conception among plant ecologists is that flooding during the season when plants are dormant generally has little effect on the survival and production of riparian vegetation. We show that winter floods may also be of fundamental importance for the composition of riverine vegetation. We investigated the effects of ice formation on riparian and in-stream vegetation in northern Sweden using a combination of experiments and observations in 25 reaches, spanning a gradient from ice-free to ice-rich reaches. The ice-rich reaches were characterized by high production of frazil and anchor ice. In a couple of experiments, we exposed riparian vegetation to experimentally induced winter flooding, which reduced the dominant dwarf-shrub cover and led to colonization of a species-rich forb-dominated vegetation. In another experiment, natural winter floods caused by anchor-ice formation removed plant mimics both in the in-stream and in the riparian zone, further supporting the result that anchor ice maintains dynamic plant communities. With a warmer winter climate, ice-induced winter floods may first increase in frequency because of more frequent shifts between freezing and thawing during winter, but further warming and shortening of the winter might make them less common than today. If ice-induced winter floods become reduced in number because of a warming climate, an important disturbance agent for riparian and in-stream vegetation will be removed, leading to reduced species richness in streams and rivers in cold regions. Given that such regions are expected to have more plant species in the future because of immigration from the south, the distribution of species richness among habitats can be expected to show novel patterns.

  18. Projecting Future Land Use Changes in West Africa Driven by Climate and Socioeconomic Factors: Uncertainties and Implications for Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.

    2015-12-01

    Land use changes constitute an important regional climate change forcing in West Africa, a region of strong land-atmosphere coupling. At the same time, climate change can be an important driver for land use, although its importance relative to the impact of socio-economic factors may vary significant from region to region. This study compares the contributions of climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of agricultural land use in West Africa and examines various sources of uncertainty using a land use projection model (LandPro) that accounts for the impact of socioeconomic drivers on the demand side and the impact of climate-induced crop yield changes on the supply side. Future crop yield changes were simulated by a process-based crop model driven with future climate projections from a regional climate model, and future changes of food demand is projected using a model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade. The impact of human decision-making on land use was explicitly considered through multiple "what-if" scenarios to examine the range of uncertainties in projecting future land use. Without agricultural intensification, the climate-induced decrease of crop yield together with increase of food demand are found to cause a significant increase in agricultural land use at the expense of forest and grassland by the mid-century, and the resulting land use land cover changes are found to feed back to the regional climate in a way that exacerbates the negative impact of climate on crop yield. Analysis of results from multiple decision-making scenarios suggests that human adaptation characterized by science-informed decision making to minimize land use could be very effective in many parts of the region.

  19. Economy-Wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change. Sea Level Rise

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bosello, F.; Lazzarin, M. [Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei FEEM, Milan (Italy); Roson, R. [The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy); Tol, R.S.J. [Centre for Marine and Climate Research, Hamburg University, Hamburg (Germany)

    2004-06-01

    The economy-wide implications of sea level rise in 2050 are estimated using a static computable general equilibrium model. Overall, general equilibrium effects increase the costs of sea level rise, but not necessarily in every sector or region. In the absence of coastal protection, economies that rely most on agriculture are hit hardest. Although energy is substituted for land, overall energy consumption falls with the shrinking economy, hurting energy exporters. With full coastal protection, GDP increases, particularly in regions that do a lot of dike building, but utility falls, least in regions that build a lot of dikes and export energy. Energy prices rise and energy consumption falls. The costs of full protection exceed the costs of losing land.

  20. Climate Change in Prehistory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burroughs, William James

    2005-06-01

    How did humankind deal with the extreme challenges of the last Ice Age? How have the relatively benign post-Ice Age conditions affected the evolution and spread of humanity across the globe? By setting our genetic history in the context of climate change during prehistory, the origin of many features of our modern world are identified and presented in this illuminating book. It reviews the aspects of our physiology and intellectual development that have been influenced by climatic factors, and how features of our lives - diet, language and the domestication of animals - are also the product of the climate in which we evolved. In short: climate change in prehistory has in many ways made us what we are today. Climate Change in Prehistory weaves together studies of the climate with anthropological, archaeological and historical studies, and will fascinate all those interested in the effects of climate on human development and history.

  1. Storm surges and climate change implications for tidal marshes: Insight from the San Francisco Bay Estuary, California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Swanson, Kathleen; Takekawa, John Y.

    2013-01-01

    Tidal marshes are dynamic ecosystems that are influenced by oceanic and freshwater processes and daily changes in sea level. Projected sea-level rise and changes in storm frequency and intensity will affect tidal marshes by altering suspended sediment supply, plant and wildlife communities, and the inundation duration and depth of the marsh platform. The objective of this research was to evaluate how regional weather conditions resulting in low-pressure storms changed tidal conditions locally within three tidal marshes. We hypothesized that regional storms will increase sea level heights locally, resulting in increased inundation of the tidal marsh platform and plant communities. Using site-level measurements of elevation, plant communities, and water levels, we present results from two storm events in 2010 and 2011 from the San Francisco Bay Estuary (SFBE), California, USA. The January 2010 storm had the lowest recorded sea level pressure in the last 30 years for this region. During the storm episodes, the duration of tidal marsh inundation was 1.8 and 3.1 times greater than average for that time of year in 2010 and 2011, respectively. At peak storm surges, over 65% in 2010 and 93% in 2011 of the plant community was under water. We also discuss the implications of these types of storms and projected sea-level rise on the structure and function of tidal marshes and how that may affect the hydrogeomorphic processes and marsh biotic communities. This type of information is useful to managers for incorporating local climate change into developing their monitoring, management, and adaptation strategies.

  2. Total Volcanic Stratospheric Aerosol Optical Depths and Implications for Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ridley, D. A.; Solomon, S.; Barnes, J. E.; Burlakov, V. D.; Deshler, T.; Dolgii, S. I.; Herber, A. B.; Nagai, T.; Neely, R. R., III; Nevzorov, A. V.; Ritter, C.; Sakai, T.; Santer, B. D.; Sato, M.; Schmidt, A.; Uchino, O.; Vernier, J. P.

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the cooling effect of recent volcanoes is of particular interest in the context of the post-2000 slowing of the rate of global warming. Satellite observations of aerosol optical depth above 15 km have demonstrated that small-magnitude volcanic eruptions substantially perturb incoming solar radiation. Here we use lidar, Aerosol Robotic Network, and balloon-borne observations to provide evidence that currently available satellite databases neglect substantial amounts of volcanic aerosol between the tropopause and 15 km at middle to high latitudes and therefore underestimate total radiative forcing resulting from the recent eruptions. Incorporating these estimates into a simple climate model, we determine the global volcanic aerosol forcing since 2000 to be 0.19 +/- 0.09W/sq m. This translates into an estimated global cooling of 0.05 to 0.12 C. We conclude that recent volcanic events are responsible for more post-2000 cooling than is implied by satellite databases that neglect volcanic aerosol effects below 15 km.

  3. Forestry Canada's perspectives on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The impacts of climatic change on Canada's forestry sector are discussed, in the context of major research priorities relating to forecasting climate, forecasting forest responses, monitoring changes, mitigating effects, and understanding the forest carbon balance. There are five major concerns that affect policy decisions: effects of climatic change on forests; adaptation to climate change; impacts of changing crops on forestry; changing forestry values in changing sociological settings; and international implications of the changing climate. A scientific program to respond to climate change issues is required, and should include the following concentrations of research effort. Planning requires projections of likely future climates, and efforts should concern relations between pre-historic climates and forest ecosystems and integrating data into predictive models. Forecasting of response of forests should include tree physiology, factors controlling reforestation, variations in forest trees, effects of pollutants, damage to forests, and forest decline

  4. Climate Change and Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chinowsky, P.; Arndt, Channing

    2012-01-01

    Decision-makers who are responsible for determining when and where infrastructure should be developed and/or enhanced are facing a new challenge with the emerging topic of climate change. The paper introduces a stressor–response methodology where engineering-based models are used as a basis...... four climate projection scenarios, the paper details how climate change response decisions may cost the Mozambican government in terms of maintenance costs and long-term roadstock inventory reduction. Through this approach the paper details how a 14% reduction in inventory loss can be achieved through...... the adoption of a proactive, design standard evolution approach to climate change....

  5. Climate and Global Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present volume contains the lessons delivered at the course held in Arles, France, on the subject Climate and Global Change: natural variability of the geosphere and biosphere systems, biogeochemical cycles and their perturbation by human activities, monitoring and forecasting global changes (satellite observations, modelling,...). Short presentations of students' own research activities are also proposed (climatic fluctuation in the Mediterranean area, climate/vegetation relations, etc.)

  6. The changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A historical outline of climate changes is followed by a discussion of the problem of predictability. The main section goes into anthropogenic changes of the local (urban) and global climate, with particular regard to the greenhouse effect and its consequences in terms of human action. The author points out that today's climate problems should be discussed in a subject-centered and objective manner. (KW)

  7. Implications of climate change for water surplus and scarcity and how that affects agricultural sustainability in Hungary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Projected impacts of climate change have included, in addition to warmer temperatures, regionally variable effects on precipitation amounts, intensities, and seasonal distribution. Projections downscaled to Hungary and surrounding region were identified and their effects on streamflow, other water r...

  8. Environmental characteristics of tropical coral reef-seagrass dominated lagoons (Lakshadweep, India) and implications to resilience to climate change.

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nobi, E.P.; DineshKumar, P.K.

    -induced coral bleaching. The water quality and sediment texture generally showed marked intra- and inter-island variations illustrating that these coral reef ecosystems are highly vulnerable to climate change brought about by increased human interventions...

  9. Review of the Policy and Legal Framework for Implementing Clean Development Mechanism Projects in Uganda and its Implications for Climate Change Mitigation - Comment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mabasi Thadeus

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews the policy and legal framework for the implementation of CDM projects in Uganda and its implications for climate change mitigation. It gives a background to climate change in Uganda and notes that climate change in Uganda can largely be attributed to unsustainable utilisation of the natural resources which has led to over exploitation and total loss of some of the natural resources. The paper reviews the international legal regime for climate change and its significance for climate change mitigation in Uganda and observes that Uganda has implemented the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol in accordance with the principles of common but differentiated responsibilities and the precautionary principle. This has for instance culminated in the carrying out of a National Inventory of Sources and Sinks of Greenhouse gases. The role of CDM in climate change mitigation is explored by examining the key CDM projects that have been implemented in Uganda. The key finding of the paper is that Uganda does not have an independent policy or law which deals with CDM and recommends that such policy and legal inadequacies should urgently be addressed.

  10. Implications of Climate Change for Bird Conservation in the Southwestern U.S. under Three Alternative Futures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan M Friggens

    Full Text Available Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3 modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy's warbler (Oreothlypis luciae, the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus. Our goal was to provide site- and species-specific information that can be used by managers to identify areas for habitat conservation and/or restoration along the Rio Grande in New Mexico. We created models of suitable habitat for each species based on collection and survey samples and climate, biophysical, and vegetation data. We projected habitat suitability under future climates by applying these models to conditions generated from three climate models for 2030, 2060 and 2090. By comparing current and future distributions, we identified how habitats are likely to change as a result of changing climate and the consequences of those changes for these bird species. We also examined whether land ownership of high value sites shifts under changing climate conditions. Habitat suitability models performed well. Biophysical characteristics were more important that climate conditions for predicting habitat suitability with distance to water being the single most important predictor. Climate, though less important, was still influential and led to declines of suitable habitat of more than 60% by 2090. For all species, suitable habitat tended to shrink over time within the study area leaving a few core areas of high importance. Overall, climate changes will increase habitat fragmentation and reduce breeding habitat patch size. The best strategy for conserving bird species within the Rio Grande will include measures to maintain and restore critical habitat refugia. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model

  11. Assessing the implications of human land-use change for the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recent research has shown evidence of a linear climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions, which implies that the source, timing, and amount of emissions does not significantly influence the climate response per unit emission. Furthermore, these analyses have generally assumed that the climate response to land-use CO2 emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuels under the assumption that, once in the atmosphere, the radiative forcing induced by CO2 is not sensitive to the emissions source. However, land-cover change also affects surface albedo and the strength of terrestrial carbon sinks, both of which have an additional climate effect. In this study, we use a coupled climate-carbon cycle model to assess the climate response to historical and future cumulative land-use CO2 emissions, in order to compare it to the response to fossil fuel CO2. We find that when we isolate the CO2-induced (biogeochemical) temperature changes associated with land-use change, then the climate response to cumulative land-use emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuel CO2. We show further that the globally-averaged albedo-induced biophysical cooling from land-use change is non-negligible and may be of comparable magnitude to the biogeochemical warming, with the result that the net climate response to land-use change is substantially different from a linear response to cumulative emissions. However, our new simulations suggest that the biophysical cooling from land-use change follows its own independent (negative) linear response to cumulative net land-use CO2 emissions, which may provide a useful scaling factor for certain applications when evaluating the full transient climate response to emissions. (letter)

  12. Implications of Climate Change for Bird Conservation in the Southwestern U.S. under Three Alternative Futures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friggens, Megan M; Finch, Deborah M

    2015-01-01

    Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy's warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus). Our goal was to provide site- and species-specific information that can be used by managers to identify areas for habitat conservation and/or restoration along the Rio Grande in New Mexico. We created models of suitable habitat for each species based on collection and survey samples and climate, biophysical, and vegetation data. We projected habitat suitability under future climates by applying these models to conditions generated from three climate models for 2030, 2060 and 2090. By comparing current and future distributions, we identified how habitats are likely to change as a result of changing climate and the consequences of those changes for these bird species. We also examined whether land ownership of high value sites shifts under changing climate conditions. Habitat suitability models performed well. Biophysical characteristics were more important that climate conditions for predicting habitat suitability with distance to water being the single most important predictor. Climate, though less important, was still influential and led to declines of suitable habitat of more than 60% by 2090. For all species, suitable habitat tended to shrink over time within the study area leaving a few core areas of high importance. Overall, climate changes will increase habitat fragmentation and reduce breeding habitat patch size. The best strategy for conserving bird species within the Rio Grande will include measures to maintain and restore critical habitat refugia. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model that can be used

  13. Implications of climate change on the management of Rift Valley lakes in Kenya. The case of lake Baringo

    OpenAIRE

    Ngaira, Josephine K.

    2006-01-01

    Climate patterns of the World became very variable during the last half of the twentieth century. Causes of this variability/change have been identified as: Sun Spot activity, ozone depletion, decline in the solar beam, with the more pronounced especially in Africa being Increased atmospheric carbondioxide, and albedo change due to anthropogenic factors. The most affected weather elements by the above mentioned factors particularly in the tropics are Rainfall and Temperature, and the climatic...

  14. A Study of Afforestation Subsidy for Multi-purpose Forestry Development under Global Climate Change:Overseas Experiments and Implication

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Global climate change poses new opportunities and challenges for forestry development, and therefore developing multiple-purpose forestry is an important measure to strengthen forestry response to climate change. At present, plantation in China ranks the world first in area, but with relatively low productivity. Constantly expanding forest area and improving forest management for enhancing multiple functions and purposes of plantations are the key measures to upgrade plantation capacity to mitigate and adap...

  15. Climate Change Crunch Time

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xie Zhenhua

    2011-01-01

    CLIMATE change is a severe challenge facing humanity in the 21st century and thus the Chinese Government always attaches great importance to the problem.Actively dealing with climate change is China's important strategic policy in its social and economic development.China will make a positive contribution to the world in this regard.

  16. Land cover dynamics and climate change implications on water resources in South Pacific Costa Rica

    OpenAIRE

    Algeet Abarquero, Nur

    2014-01-01

    Water is fundamental to human life and the availability of freshwater is often a constraint on human welfare and economic development. Consequently, the potential effects of global changes on hydrology and water resources are considered among the most severe and vital ones. Water scarcity is one of the main problems in the rural communities of Central America, as a result of an important degradation of catchment areas and the over-exploitation of aquifers. The present Thesis is focused on two...

  17. Climate for change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate for Change: Non-State Actors and the Global Politics of the Greenhouse provides a challenging explanation of the forces that have shaped the international global warming debate. Unlike existing books on the politics of climate change, this book concentrates on how non-stage actors, such as scientific, environmental and industry groups, as opposed to governmental organisations, affect political outcomes in global fora on climate change. It also provides insights in to the role of the media in influencing the agenda. The book draws on a range of analytical approaches to assess and explain the influence of these non-governmental organisations in the course of global climate change politics. The book will be of interest to all researchers and policy-makers associated with climate change, and will be used on university courses in international relations, politics and environmental studies. (Author)

  18. Climate change: The necessary, the possible and the desirable Earth League climate statement on the implications for climate policy from the 5th IPCC Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Rockstrom, J.; Brasseur, G; Hoskins, B.; Lucht, W.; Schellnhuber, J.; P. Kabat; Nakicenovic, N.; P. Gong; P. Schlosser; Costa, M; Humble, A.; Eyre, N.; Gleick, P.; James, R.; Lucena, A.

    2014-01-01

    The development of human civilisations has occurred at a time of stable climate. This climate stability is now threatened by human activity. The rising global climate risk occurs at a decisive moment for world development. World nations are currently discussing a global development agenda consequent to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which ends in 2015. It is increasingly possible to envisage a world where absolute poverty is largely eradicated within one generation and where ambitio...

  19. Climate change: the necessary, the possible and the desirable Earth League climate statement on the implications for climate policy from the 5th IPCC Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Rockström, Johan; Brasseur, Guy; Hoskins, Brian; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schellnhuber, John; Kabat, Pavel; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Gong, Peng; Schlosser, Peter; Máñez Costa, Maria; Humble, April; Eyre, Nick; Gleick, Peter; James, Rachel; Lucena, Andre

    2014-01-01

    The development of human civilisations has occurred at a time of stable climate. This climate stability is now threatened by human activity. The rising global climate risk occurs at a decisive moment for world development. World nations are currently discussing a global development agenda consequent to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which ends in 2015. It is increasingly possible to envisage a world where absolute poverty is largely eradicated within one generation and where ambitio...

  20. Climate change impacts and adaptations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn

    2015-01-01

    , the inseparability of the development and climate agendas, and the rate of assimilation of climate and development information in key institutions. They are drawn from the Development Under Climate Change (DUCC) project carried out by UNU-WIDER of which the countries of the Greater Zambeze Valley formed a part......In this article, we assert that developing countries are much better prepared to undertake negotiations at the Conference of the Parties in Paris (CoP21) as compared to CoP15 in Copenhagen. An important element of this is the accumulation of knowledge with respect to the implications of climate...... change and the ongoing internalization thereof by key institutions in developing countries. The articles in this special issue set forth a set of technical contributions to this improved understanding. We also summarize five major lessons related to uncertainty, extreme events, timing of impacts...

  1. Forest policy implications of climate change: Economic impacts and potential mitigation strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Increasing mean global temperatures due to rising levels of carbon dioxide and other ''greenhouse'' gases in the atmosphere could affect the distribution of commercially important forests in North America significantly. The temperature increases might outpace the ability of forests to adapt, causing considerable stress and mortality to trees in the southern part of their range without a commensurate increase in growth across the expanding range. If realized, these potential biological impacts on forest distribution and health would affect management decisions substantially and could adversely impact forest-based economies in the United States. Specific effects on forest management include changes in the methods and costs of fire, insect, and disease protection; greater demands on forest lands for conversion to food production; and uncertain changes in site quality. One means of mitigating the effects of CO2 emissions is to establish tree plantations for carbon sequestration. Preliminary analyses suggest that a program aimed at marginal cropland in the South could store more than 563 million tons of carbon over 45 years, although 90 million tons would be lost due to risks associated with plantations

  2. Struggle against climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document first proposes a presentation of the cross-cutting policy defined for the struggle against climate change. It notably presents its various programs. It describes the implemented strategy which aims at reducing on a short term greenhouse gas emissions with the available technologies, at making the climate challenge a driver for economic competitiveness, at developing the knowledge on climatic change and at preparing the necessary adaptation measures, and at stating on the international scene the French commitment and its dynamic role in front of the climate challenge

  3. Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After the introduction Chapter 2 presents details of the ecological-economic analysis based on the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zones (AEZ) approach for evaluation of biophysical limitations and agricultural production potentials, and IIASA's Basic Linked System (BLS) for analyzing the world's food economy and trade system. The BLS is a global general equilibrium model system for analyzing agricultural policies and food system prospects in an international setting. BLS views national agricultural systems as embedded in national economies, which interact with each other through trade at the international level. The combination of AEZ and BLS provides an integrated ecological-economic framework for the assessment of the impact of climate change. We consider climate scenarios based on experiments with four General Circulation Models (GCM), and we assess the four basic socioeconomic development pathways and emission scenarios as formulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Third Assessment Report. Chapter 3 presents the main AEZ results of the impact of climate change on agriculture. Results comprise environmental constraints to crop agriculture; climate variability and the variability of rain-fed cereal production; changes in potential agricultural land; changes in crop-production patterns; and the impact of climate change on cereal-production potential. Chapter 4 discusses the AEZ-BLS integrated ecological-economic analysis of climate change on the world food system. This includes quantification of scale and location of hunger, international agricultural trade, prices, production, land use, etc. It assesses trends in food production, trade, and consumption, and the impact on poverty and hunger of alternative development pathways and varying levels of climate change. Chapter 5 presents the main conclusions and policy implications of this study

  4. Mangrove expansion in the Gulf of Mexico with climate change: Implications for wetland health and resistance to rising sea levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comeaux, Rebecca S.; Allison, Mead A.; Bianchi, Thomas S.

    2012-01-01

    Black mangroves ( Avicennia spp.) are hypothesized to expand their latitudinal range with global climate change in the 21st century, induced by a reduction in the frequency and severity of coastal freezes, which are known to limit mangrove colony extent and individual tree size. The Gulf of Mexico is a prime candidate for population expansion to occur because it is located at the northward limit of black mangrove habitat. This may come at the expense of existing coastal saline wetlands that are dominantly Spartina spp. marsh grasses. The present study was conducted to focus on the implications of a marsh to mangrove transition in Gulf wetlands, specifically: (1) wetland resistance to accelerating eustatic sea level rise (ESLR) rates; (2) resistance to wave attack in large storms (increased cyclonic storm frequency/intensity is predicted with future climate warming); and (3) organic carbon sequestration and wetland soil geochemistry. Field sites of adjacent and inter-grown Avicennia germinans mangrove and Spartina marsh populations in similar geomorphological setting were selected in back-barrier areas near Port Aransas and Galveston, TX. Elevation surveys in the more mature Port Aransas site indicate mangrove vegetated areas are 4 cm higher in elevation than surrounding marsh on an average regional scale, and 1-2 cm higher at the individual mangrove scale. 210Pb and 137Cs accumulation rates and loss on ignition data indicate that mineral trapping is 4.1 times higher and sediment organics are 1.7 times lower in mangroves at Port Aransas. This additional mineral trapping does not differ in grain size character from marsh accumulation. Elevation change may also be effected by soil displacement of higher root volumes in mangrove cores. Port Aransas porosities are lower in mangrove rooted horizons, with a corresponding increase in sediment strength, suggesting mangrove intervals are more resistant to wave-induced erosion during storm events. Port Aransas mangroves

  5. Communities under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

  6. Climate Change and Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Nibleus, Kerstin; Lundin, Rickard

    2010-01-01

    Planet Earth has experienced repeated changes of its climate throughout time. Periods warmer than today as well as much colder, during glacial episodes, have alternated. In our time, rapid population growth with increased demand for natural resources and energy, has made society increasingly vulnerable to environmental changes, both natural and those caused by man; human activity is clearly affecting the radiation balance of the Earth. In the session “Climate Change and Mitigation” the speake...

  7. Cuba confronts climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Gisela; Clark, Ismael

    2015-04-01

    Among environmental problems, climate change presents the greatest challenges to developing countries, especially island nations. Changes in climate and the resulting effects on human health call for examination of the interactions between environmental and social factors. Important in Cuba's case are soil conditions, food availability, disease burden, ecological changes, extreme weather events, water quality and rising sea levels, all in conjunction with a range of social, cultural, economic and demographic conditions.

  8. Global climate change and international security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  9. Biodiversity and Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biological diversity or biodiversity is crucial for ecological stability including regulation of climate change, recreational and medicinal use; and scientific advancement. Kenya like other developing countries, especially, those in Sub-Saharan Africa, will continue to depend greatly on her biodiversity for present and future development. This important resource must, therefore be conserved. This chapter presents an overview of Kenya's biodiversity; its importance and initiatives being undertaken for its conservation; and in detail, explores issues of climate change and biodiversity, concentrating on impacts of climate change

  10. Witnesses of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After having evoked the process of climate change, the effect of greenhouse gas emissions, the evolution of average temperatures in France since 1900, and indicated the various interactions and impacts of climate change regarding air quality, water resources, food supply, degradation and loss of biodiversity, deforestation, desertification, this publication, while quoting various testimonies (from a mountain refuge guardian, a wine maker, a guide in La Reunion, an IFREMER bio-statistician engineer, and a representative of health professionals), describes the various noticed impacts of climate change on the environment in mountain chains, on agriculture, on sea level rise, on overseas biodiversity, and on health

  11. The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two vectors of Chagas disease: implications for the force of infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medone, Paula; Ceccarelli, Soledad; Parham, Paul E; Figuera, Andreína; Rabinovich, Jorge E

    2015-04-01

    Chagas disease, caused by the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, is the most important vector-borne disease in Latin America. The vectors are insects belonging to the Triatominae (Hemiptera, Reduviidae), and are widely distributed in the Americas. Here, we assess the implications of climatic projections for 2050 on the geographical footprint of two of the main Chagas disease vectors: Rhodnius prolixus (tropical species) and Triatoma infestans (temperate species). We estimated the epidemiological implications of current to future transitions in the climatic niche in terms of changes in the force of infection (FOI) on the rural population of two countries: Venezuela (tropical) and Argentina (temperate). The climatic projections for 2050 showed heterogeneous impact on the climatic niches of both vector species, with a decreasing trend of suitability of areas that are currently at high-to-moderate transmission risk. Consequently, climatic projections affected differently the FOI for Chagas disease in Venezuela and Argentina. Despite the heterogeneous results, our main conclusions point out a decreasing trend in the number of new cases of Tr. cruzi human infections per year between current and future conditions using a climatic niche approach. PMID:25688019

  12. Adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn;

    2011-01-01

    Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling...... framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed...... down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US2.3 to US2.3toUS7...

  13. Climate change governance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knieling, Joerg [HafenCity Univ. Hamburg (Germany). Urban Planning and Regional Development; Leal Filho, Walter (eds.) [HAW Hamburg (Germany). Research and Transfer Centre Applications of Life Science

    2013-07-01

    Climate change is a cause for concern both globally and locally. In order for it to be tackled holistically, its governance is an important topic needing scientific and practical consideration. Climate change governance is an emerging area, and one which is closely related to state and public administrative systems and the behaviour of private actors, including the business sector, as well as the civil society and non-governmental organisations. Questions of climate change governance deal both with mitigation and adaptation whilst at the same time trying to devise effective ways of managing the consequences of these measures across the different sectors. Many books have been produced on general matters related to climate change, such as climate modelling, temperature variations, sea level rise, but, to date, very few publications have addressed the political, economic and social elements of climate change and their links with governance. This book will address this gap. Furthermore, a particular feature of this book is that it not only presents different perspectives on climate change governance, but it also introduces theoretical approaches and brings these together with practical examples which show how main principles may be implemented in practice.

  14. Olivine and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuiling, R.D.

    2012-01-01

    The greenhouse effect, thanks mainly to the water vapor in our atmosphere, has created a livable climate on Earth. Climate change, however, may potentially have dire consequences. It is generally assumed that the rise in CO2 levels in the atmosphere is the main culprit, although several other greenh

  15. Effects of Temperature on Development and Voltinism of Chaetodactylus krombeini (Acari: Chaetodactylidae): Implications for Climate Change Impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Jeong Joon; Son, Youngsoo; He, Yaqian; Lee, Eungul; Park, Yong-Lak

    2016-01-01

    Temperature plays an important role in the growth and development of arthropods, and thus the current trend of climate change will alter their biology and species distribution. We used Chaetodactylus krombeini (Acari: Chaetodactylidae), a cleptoparasitic mite associated with Osmia bees (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae), as a model organism to investigate how temperature affects the development and voltinism of C. krombeini in the eastern United States. The effects of temperature on the stage-specific development of C. krombeini were determined at seven constant temperatures (16.1, 20.2, 24.1, 27.5, 30.0, 32.4 and 37.8°C). Parameters for stage-specific development, such as threshold temperatures and thermal constant, were determined by using empirical models. Results of this study showed that C. krombeini eggs developed successfully to adult at all temperatures tested except 37.8°C. The nonlinear and linear empirical models were applied to describe quantitatively the relationship between temperature and development of each C. krombeini stage. The nonlinear Lactin model estimated optimal temperatures as 31.4, 32.9, 32.6 and 32.5°C for egg, larva, nymph, and egg to adult, respectively. In the linear model, the lower threshold temperatures were estimated to be 9.9, 14.7, 13.0 and 12.4°C for egg, larva, nymph, and egg to adult, respectively. The thermal constant for each stage completion were 61.5, 28.1, 64.8 and 171.1 degree days for egg, larva, nymph, and egg to adult, respectively. Under the future climate scenarios, the number of generations (i.e., voltinism) would increase more likely by 1.5 to 2.0 times by the year of 2100 according to simulation. The findings herein firstly provided comprehensive data on thermal development of C. krombeini and implications for the management of C. krombeini populations under global warming were discussed. *Scientific Article No. 3278 of the West Virginia Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station, Morgantown, West Virginia. PMID

  16. Dry-bean production under climate change conditions in the north of Argentina: Risk assessment and economic implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feijoo, M.; Mestre, F.; Castagnaro, A.

    1997-12-31

    This study evaluates the potential effect of climate change on Dry-bean production in Argentina, combining climate models, a crop productivity model and a yield response model estimation of climate variables on crop yields. The study was carried out in the North agricultural regions of Jujuy, Salta, Santiago del Estero and Tucuman which include the largest areas of Argentina where dry beans are grown as a high input crop. The paper combines the output from a crop model with different techniques of analysis. The scenarios used in this study were generated from the output of two General Circulation Models (GCMs): the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model (GISS) and the Canadian Climate Change Model (CCCM). The study also includes a preliminary evaluation of the potential changes in monetary returns taking into account the possible variability of yields and prices, using mean-Gini stochastic dominance (MGSD). The results suggest that large climate change may have a negative impact on the Argentine agriculture sector, due to the high relevance of this product in the export sector. The difference negative effect depends on the varieties of dry bean and also the General Circulation Model scenarios considered for double levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

  17. Criminality and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Rob

    2016-08-01

    The impacts of climate change imply a reconceptualization of environment-related criminality. Criminology can offer insight into the definitions and dynamics of this behaviour, and outline potential areas of redress.

  18. Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hudecz, Adriána

    -operation and research into the common problems of the Northern Periphery. This report is an output of the ROADEX “Implementing Accessibility” project (2009-2012). It gives a summary of the results of research into adaptation measures to combat climate change effects on low volume roads in the Northern Periphery....... The research was carried out between January 2000 and March 2012. One of the biggest challenges that mankind has to face is the prospect of climate change resulting from emissions of greenhouse gases. These gases trap energy in the atmosphere and cause global surface temperatures to rise. This warming in turn...... causes changes in other climatic variables such as rainfall, humidity and wind speed that impact on the functioning of infrastructure such road networks. This paper discusses the climate changes predicted by the world’s meteorological organisations and considers how these may impact on the public...

  19. Climate for Change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    Cities rather than national governments take the lead in acting on climate change. Several cities have voluntarily created climate change plans to prevent and prepare for the effects of climate change. In the literature climate change has been examined as a multilevel governance area taking place...... and to investigate the institutional dynamics new institutional theory is used with an emphasis on examining institutional mechanisms in relation to building legitimacy for action. The concept of mechanisms can help explain how and why constraints on action occur, and the concept of legitimacy is useful to clarify...... entrepreneurs create windows for action through the establishment of local networks. The thesis contributes knowledge on the constraints of the internal integration process in city governments. It provides explanations of why these constraints occur, and how officials seek to overcome them. The thesis provides...

  20. Climate change and compensation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint; Flanagan, Tine Bech

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a case for compensation of actual harm from climate change in the poorest countries. First, it is shown that climate change threatens to reverse the fight to eradicate poverty. Secondly, it is shown how the problems raised in the literature for compensation to some extent...... are based on misconceptions and do not apply to compensation of present actual harm. Finally, two arguments are presented to the effect that, in so far as developed countries accept a major commitment to mitigate climate change, they should also accept a commitment to address or compensate actual harm from...... climate change. The first argument appeals to the principle that if it is an injustice to cause risk of incurring harm in the future, then it is also an injustice to cause a similar harm now. The second argument appeals to the principle that if there is moral reason to reduce the risk of specific harms...

  1. Climate change: Update on international negotiations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silverman, L. [Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States). Office of Policy

    1997-12-31

    This paper outlines the following: United Nations` framework convention on climatic change; the United States` climate change action plan; current issues to be resolved (targets/timetables, policies, advancing commitments of all parties, and compliance); and implications for clean coal technologies.

  2. Dislocated interests and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Steven J.; Diffenbaugh, Noah

    2016-06-01

    The predicted effects of climate change on surface temperatures are now emergent and quantifiable. The recent letter by Hansen and Sato (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 034009) adds to a growing number of studies showing that warming over the past four decades has shifted the distribution of temperatures higher almost everywhere, with the largest relative effects on summer temperatures in developing regions such as Africa, South America, southeast Asia, and the Middle East (e.g., Diffenbaugh and Scherer 2011 Clim. Change 107 615-24 Anderson 2011 Clim. Change 108 581; Mahlstein et al 2012 Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L21711). Hansen and Sato emphasize that although these regions are warming disproportionately, their role in causing climate change—measured by cumulative historical CO2 emissions produced—is small compared to the US and Europe, where the relative change in temperatures has been less. This spatial and temporal mismatch of climate change impacts and the burning of fossil fuels is a critical dislocation of interests that, as the authors note, has ‘substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.’ Here, we place Hansen and Sato’s ‘national responsibilities’ into a broader conceptual framework of problematically dislocated interests, and briefly discuss the related challenges for global climate mitigation efforts.

  3. A Generalized Stability Analysis of the AMOC in Earth System Models: Implication for Decadal Variability and Abrupt Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fedorov, Alexey V. [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States)

    2015-01-14

    The central goal of this research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as related to climate variability and abrupt climate change within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean models to comprehensive Earth system models. Generalized Stability Analysis, a method that quantifies the transient and asymptotic growth of perturbations in the system, is one of the main approaches used throughout this project. The topics we have explored range from physical mechanisms that control AMOC variability to the factors that determine AMOC predictability in the Earth system models, to the stability and variability of the AMOC in past climates.

  4. Functional and phylogenetic relatedness in temporary wetland invertebrates: current macroecological patterns and implications for future climatic change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruhí, Albert; Boix, Dani; Gascón, Stéphanie; Sala, Jordi; Batzer, Darold P

    2013-01-01

    vulnerable and often overlooked ecosystems will be affected by long-term climate change.

  5. Functional and phylogenetic relatedness in temporary wetland invertebrates: current macroecological patterns and implications for future climatic change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albert Ruhí

    embedded in these vulnerable and often overlooked ecosystems will be affected by long-term climate change.

  6. Importance of winter climate and soil frost for dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in boreal forest soils and streams : - implications for a changing climate

    OpenAIRE

    Haei, Mahsa

    2011-01-01

    Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is a defining feature of surface waters in a large part of the world and it influences a variety of physical, chemical and biological processes in aquatic ecosystems. Riparian soils exert a major control on stream water chemistry in many northern latitude regions and provide a local source of DOC to adjacent streams. As the winter climate in northern regions is predicted to be particularly affected by climate change, it is important to investigate the sensitivit...

  7. Climate change - global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

  8. Climate Tolerances and Habitat Requirements Jointly Shape the Elevational Distribution of the American Pika (Ochotona princeps), with Implications for Climate Change Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yandow, Leah H; Chalfoun, Anna D; Doak, Daniel F

    2015-01-01

    Some of the most compelling examples of ecological responses to climate change are elevational range shifts of individual species, which have been observed throughout the world. A growing body of evidence, however, suggests substantial mediation of simple range shifts due to climate change by other limiting factors. Understanding limiting factors for a species within different contexts, therefore, is critical for predicting responses to climate change. The American pika (Ochotona princeps) is an ideal species for investigating distributions in relation to climate because of their unusual and well-understood natural history as well as observed shifts to higher elevation in parts of their range. We tested three hypotheses for the climatic or habitat characteristics that may limit pika presence and abundance: summer heat, winter snowpack, and forage availability. We performed these tests using an index of pika abundance gathered in a region where environmental influences on pika distribution have not been well-characterized. We estimated relative pika abundance via scat surveys and quantified climatic and habitat characteristics across two North-Central Rocky Mountain Ranges, the Wind River and Bighorn ranges in Wyoming, USA. Pika scat density was highest at mid-elevations and increased linearly with forage availability in both ranges. Scat density also increased with temperatures conducive to forage plant growth, and showed a unimodal relationship with the number of days below -5°C, which is modulated by insulating snowpack. Our results provide support for both the forage availability and winter snowpack hypotheses. Especially in montane systems, considering the context-dependent nature of climate effects across regions and elevations as well as interactions between climatic and other critical habitat characteristics, will be essential for predicting future species distributions.

  9. Climate Tolerances and Habitat Requirements Jointly Shape the Elevational Distribution of the American Pika (Ochotona princeps), with Implications for Climate Change Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yandow, Leah H.; Chalfoun, Anna D.; Doak, Daniel F.

    2015-01-01

    Some of the most compelling examples of ecological responses to climate change are elevational range shifts of individual species, which have been observed throughout the world. A growing body of evidence, however, suggests substantial mediation of simple range shifts due to climate change by other limiting factors. Understanding limiting factors for a species within different contexts, therefore, is critical for predicting responses to climate change. The American pika (Ochotona princeps) is an ideal species for investigating distributions in relation to climate because of their unusual and well-understood natural history as well as observed shifts to higher elevation in parts of their range. We tested three hypotheses for the climatic or habitat characteristics that may limit pika presence and abundance: summer heat, winter snowpack, and forage availability. We performed these tests using an index of pika abundance gathered in a region where environmental influences on pika distribution have not been well-characterized. We estimated relative pika abundance via scat surveys and quantified climatic and habitat characteristics across two North-Central Rocky Mountain Ranges, the Wind River and Bighorn ranges in Wyoming, USA. Pika scat density was highest at mid-elevations and increased linearly with forage availability in both ranges. Scat density also increased with temperatures conducive to forage plant growth, and showed a unimodal relationship with the number of days below -5°C, which is modulated by insulating snowpack. Our results provide support for both the forage availability and winter snowpack hypotheses. Especially in montane systems, considering the context-dependent nature of climate effects across regions and elevations as well as interactions between climatic and other critical habitat characteristics, will be essential for predicting future species distributions. PMID:26244851

  10. Modelling effects of geoengineering options in response to climate change and global warming: implications for coral reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crabbe, M J C

    2009-12-01

    Climate change will have serious effects on the planet and on its ecosystems. Currently, mitigation efforts are proving ineffectual in reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Coral reefs are the most sensitive ecosystems on the planet to climate change, and here we review modelling a number of geoengineering options, and their potential influence on coral reefs. There are two categories of geoengineering, shortwave solar radiation management and longwave carbon dioxide removal. The first set of techniques only reduce some, but not all, effects of climate change, while possibly creating other problems. They also do not affect CO2 levels and therefore fail to address the wider effects of rising CO2, including ocean acidification, important for coral reefs. Solar radiation is important to coral growth and survival, and solar radiation management is not in general appropriate for this ecosystem. Longwave carbon dioxide removal techniques address the root cause of climate change, rising CO2 concentrations, they have relatively low uncertainties and risks. They are worthy of further research and potential implementation, particularly carbon capture and storage, biochar, and afforestation methods, alongside increased mitigation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

  11. Historical determinants of past and current biodiversity patterns and their implications for conservation under future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarreal, M. L.; Norman, L. M.; Wallace, C.; Boykin, K.

    2011-12-01

    Data describing landscape history, particularly the response of landscape patterns to past climate and land uses, can improve results from models that predict patterns of species distributions. We assessed the influence of past climate, past and current land use, and topography on the potential spatial and temporal distributions of terrestrial vertebrates in a semi-arid watershed using multitemporal satellite imagery, geospatial land ownership data, and long-term climate and vegetation monitoring data. We mapped decadal vegetation and land cover (1979, 1989, 1999, and 2009) using satellite and field data, and created species richness maps for each date using SWReGAP species-habitat models. Our results show that vegetation types with the highest mammal and avian species richness, primarily desert grasslands (mammal) and riparian vegetation (avian) types, experienced the largest change in land cover area and related species richness numbers over time. Change patterns were neither temporally directional nor spatially uniform over the landscape. Riparian cover registered a 19% decline and grassland a 15% increase in cover from 1979-2009, but cover change was temporally variable and was influenced by climate patterns; for example, the development and decline of riparian cover coincided with a period of above average precipitation during the 1980s and 1990s followed by a period of extended drought. Spatial patterns were determined partially by changes in both public and private land management: expanding urban development (and related groundwater use) contributed to the decline of riparian cover on private lands, while range restoration and conservation efforts on private and public lands contributed to the stabilization and increase in grassland and some riparian vegetation. Finally, topographical features were correlated with change patterns; much of the mammal and avian habitat declines occurred in the arid, lower elevation portions of the watershed while increases

  12. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Dulen, Deanna M; Ebersole, Joseph L; Jackson, Stephen T; Lundquist, Jessica D; Millar, Constance I; Maher, Sean P; Monahan, William B; Nydick, Koren R; Redmond, Kelly T; Sawyer, Sarah C; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  13. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  14. Oxygen isotope in archaeological bioapatites from India: Implications to climate change and decline of Bronze Age Harappan civilization

    OpenAIRE

    Anindya Sarkar; Arati Deshpande Mukherjee; Bera, M. K.; Das, B.; Navin Juyal; Morthekai, P.; Deshpande, R. D.; Shinde, V. S.; L. S. Rao

    2016-01-01

    The antiquity and decline of the Bronze Age Harappan civilization in the Indus-Ghaggar-Hakra river valleys is an enigma in archaeology. Weakening of the monsoon after ~5 ka BP (and droughts throughout the Asia) is a strong contender for the Harappan collapse, although controversy exists about the synchroneity of climate change and collapse of civilization. One reason for this controversy is lack of a continuous record of cultural levels and palaeomonsoon change in close proximity. We report a...

  15. The Effects of Supplementary Food on the Breeding Performance of Eurasian Reed Warblers Acrocephalus scirpaceus; Implications for Climate Change Impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vafidis, James O; Vaughan, Ian P; Jones, T Hefin; Facey, Richard J; Parry, Rob; Thomas, Robert J

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the mechanisms by which climate variation can drive population changes requires information linking climate, local conditions, trophic resources, behaviour and demography. Climate change alters the seasonal pattern of emergence and abundance of invertebrate populations, which may have important consequences for the breeding performance and population change of insectivorous birds. In this study, we examine the role of food availability in driving behavioural changes in an insectivorous migratory songbird; the Eurasian reed warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus. We use a feeding experiment to examine the effect of increased food supply on different components of breeding behaviour and first-brood productivity, over three breeding seasons (2012-2014). Reed warblers respond to food-supplementation by advancing their laying date by up to 5.6 days. Incubation periods are shorter in supplemented groups during the warmest mean spring temperatures. Nestling growth rates are increased in nests provisioned by supplemented parents. In addition, nest predation is reduced, possibly because supplemented adults spend more time at the nest and faster nestling growth reduces the period of vulnerability of eggs and nestlings to predators (and brood parasites). The net effect of these changes is to advance the fledging completion date and to increase the overall productivity of the first brood for supplemented birds. European populations of reed warblers are currently increasing; our results suggest that advancing spring phenology, leading to increased food availability early in the breeding season, could account for this change by facilitating higher productivity. Furthermore, the earlier brood completion potentially allows multiple breeding attempts. This study identifies the likely trophic and behavioural mechanisms by which climate-driven changes in invertebrate phenology and abundance may lead to changes in breeding phenology, nest survival and net reproductive

  16. Landscape patterns of bioenergy in a changing climate: implications for crop allocation and land-use competition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, Rose A; Pearson, Scott M; Turner, Monica G

    2016-03-01

    Rural landscapes face changing climate, shifting development pressure, and loss of agricultural land. Perennial bioenergy crops grown on existing agricultural land may provide an opportunity to conserve rural landscapes while addressing increased demand for biofuels. However, increased bioenergy production and changing land use raise concerns for tradeoffs within the food-energy-environment trilemma. Heterogeneity of climate, soils, and land use complicate assessment of bioenergy potential in complex landscapes, creating challenges to evaluating future tradeoffs. The hypothesis addressed herein is that perennial bioenergy production can provide an opportunity to avoid agricultural land conversion to development. Using a process-based crop model, we assessed potential bioenergy crop growth through 2100 in a southern Appalachian Mountain region and asked: (1) how mean annual yield differed among three crops (switchgrass Panicum virgatum, giant miscanthus Miscanthus x giganteus, and hybrid poplar Populus x sp.) under current climate and climate change scenarios resulting from moderate and very high greenhouse gas emissions; (2) how maximum landscape yield, spatial allocation of crops, and bioenergy hotspots (areas with highest potential yield) varied among climate scenarios; and (3) how bioenergy hotspots overlapped with current crop production or lands with high development pressure. Under both climate change scenarios, mean annual yield of perennial grasses decreased (-4% to -39%), but yield of hybrid poplar increased (+8% to +20%) which suggests that a switch to woody crops would maximize bioenergy crop production. In total, maximum landscape yield increased by up to 90 000 Mg/yr (6%) in the 21st century due to increased poplar production. Bioenergy hotspots (> 18 Mg x ha(-1) x yr(-1)) consistently overlapped with high suburban/exurban development likelihood and existing row crop production. If bioenergy production is constrained to marginal (non-crop) lands

  17. Landscape patterns of bioenergy in a changing climate: implications for crop allocation and land-use competition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, Rose A; Pearson, Scott M; Turner, Monica G

    2016-03-01

    Rural landscapes face changing climate, shifting development pressure, and loss of agricultural land. Perennial bioenergy crops grown on existing agricultural land may provide an opportunity to conserve rural landscapes while addressing increased demand for biofuels. However, increased bioenergy production and changing land use raise concerns for tradeoffs within the food-energy-environment trilemma. Heterogeneity of climate, soils, and land use complicate assessment of bioenergy potential in complex landscapes, creating challenges to evaluating future tradeoffs. The hypothesis addressed herein is that perennial bioenergy production can provide an opportunity to avoid agricultural land conversion to development. Using a process-based crop model, we assessed potential bioenergy crop growth through 2100 in a southern Appalachian Mountain region and asked: (1) how mean annual yield differed among three crops (switchgrass Panicum virgatum, giant miscanthus Miscanthus x giganteus, and hybrid poplar Populus x sp.) under current climate and climate change scenarios resulting from moderate and very high greenhouse gas emissions; (2) how maximum landscape yield, spatial allocation of crops, and bioenergy hotspots (areas with highest potential yield) varied among climate scenarios; and (3) how bioenergy hotspots overlapped with current crop production or lands with high development pressure. Under both climate change scenarios, mean annual yield of perennial grasses decreased (-4% to -39%), but yield of hybrid poplar increased (+8% to +20%) which suggests that a switch to woody crops would maximize bioenergy crop production. In total, maximum landscape yield increased by up to 90 000 Mg/yr (6%) in the 21st century due to increased poplar production. Bioenergy hotspots (> 18 Mg x ha(-1) x yr(-1)) consistently overlapped with high suburban/exurban development likelihood and existing row crop production. If bioenergy production is constrained to marginal (non-crop) lands

  18. "What Controls the Structure and Stability of the Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation: Implications for Abrupt Climate Change?"

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fedorov, Alexey [Yale University

    2013-11-23

    The central goal of this research project is to understand the properties of the ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) – a topic critical for understanding climate variability and stability on a variety of timescales (from decadal to centennial and longer). Specifically, we have explored various factors that control the MOC stability and decadal variability in the Atlantic and the ocean thermal structure in general, including the possibility abrupt climate change. We have also continued efforts on improving the performance of coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs.

  19. Climate change and socio-economic scenarios, land use modelling implications on water resources in an inner alpine area, Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rey, Emmanuel; Schneider, Flurina; Liniger, Hanspeter; Weingartner, Rolf; Herweg, Karl

    2014-05-01

    The MontanAqua project aims to study the water resources management in the region Sierre-Montana (Valais, Switzerland). Land use is known to have an influence on the water resources (soil moisture dynamic, soil sealing, surface runoff and deep percolation). Thus land use modelling is of importance for the water resources management. An actual land use map was produced using infrared imagery (Niklaus 2012, Fig.1). Land use changes are known to be mainly drived by socio-economic factors as well as climatic factors (Dolman et al. 2003). Potential future Land uses was separatly predicted according to 1-. socio-economic and 2-. climatic/abiotic drivers : 1. 4 socio-economic scenarios were developped with stakeholders (Schneider et al. 2013) between 2010 and 2012. We modeled those socio-economic scenarios into a GIS application using Python programming (ModelBuilder in ArcGIS 10) to get a cartographic transcription of the wishes of the stakeholders for their region in 2050. 2. Uncorrelated climatic and abiotic drivers were used in a BIOMOD2 (Georges et al. 2013) framework. 4 models were used: Maximum Entropy (MAXENT), Multiple Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Classification Tree Analysis (CTA) and the Flexible Discriminant Analysis (FDA) to predict grassland, alpine pasture, vineyards and forest in our study region. Climatic scenarios were then introduced into the models to predict potential land use in 2050 driven only by climatic and abiotic factors The comparison of all the outputs demonstrates that the socio-economic drivers will have a more important impact in the region than the climatic drivers (e.g. -70% grassland surface for the worst socio-economic scenario vs. -40% of grassland surface for the worst climatic models). Further analysis also brings out the sensitivity of the grassland/alpine pasture system to the climate change and to socio-economic changes. Future work will be to cross the different land use maps obtained by the two model types and to use

  20. Poverty and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vink, G.; Franco, E.; Fuckar, N. S.; Kalmbach, E. R.; Kayatta, E.; Lankester, K.; Rothschild, R. E.; Sarma, A.; Wall, M. L.

    2008-05-01

    The poor are disproportionately vulnerable to environmental change because they have the least amount of resources with which to adapt, and they live in areas (e.g. flood plains, low-lying coastal areas, and marginal drylands) that are particularly vulnerable to the manifestations of climate change. By quantifying the various environmental, economic, and social factors that can contribute to poverty, we identify populations that are most vulnerable to poverty and poverty traps due to environmental change. We define vulnerability as consisting of risk (probability of event and exposed elements), resiliency, and capacity to respond. Resiliency captures the social system's ability to absorb a natural disaster while retaining the same basic structure, organization, and ways of functioning, as well as its general capacity to adapt to stress and change. Capacity to respond is a surrogate for technical skills, institutional capabilities, and efficacy within countries and their economies. We use a "climate change multiplier" to account for possible increases in the frequency and severity of natural events due to climate change. Through various analytical methods, we quantify the social, political, economic, and environmental factors that contribute to poverty or poverty traps. These data sets are then used to determine vulnerability through raster multiplication in geospatial analysis. The vulnerability of a particular location to climate change is then mapped, with areas of high vulnerability clearly delineated. The success of this methodology indicates that it is indeed possible to quantify the effects of climate change on global vulnerability to natural disasters, and can be used as a mechanism to identify areas where proactive measures, such as improving adaptation or capacity to respond, can reduce the humanitarian and economic impacts of climate change.

  1. Current Climate Variability & Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diem, J.; Criswell, B.; Elliott, W. C.

    2013-12-01

    Current Climate Variability & Change is the ninth among a suite of ten interconnected, sequential labs that address all 39 climate-literacy concepts in the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences. The labs are as follows: Solar Radiation & Seasons, Stratospheric Ozone, The Troposphere, The Carbon Cycle, Global Surface Temperature, Glacial-Interglacial Cycles, Temperature Changes over the Past Millennium, Climates & Ecosystems, Current Climate Variability & Change, and Future Climate Change. All are inquiry-based, on-line products designed in a way that enables students to construct their own knowledge of a topic. Questions representative of various levels of Webb's depth of knowledge are embedded in each lab. In addition to the embedded questions, each lab has three or four essential questions related to the driving questions for the lab suite. These essential questions are presented as statements at the beginning of the material to represent the lab objectives, and then are asked at the end as questions to function as a summative assessment. For example, the Current Climate Variability & Change is built around these essential questions: (1) What has happened to the global temperature at the Earth's surface, in the middle troposphere, and in the lower stratosphere over the past several decades?; (2) What is the most likely cause of the changes in global temperature over the past several decades and what evidence is there that this is the cause?; and (3) What have been some of the clearly defined effects of the change in global temperature on the atmosphere and other spheres of the Earth system? An introductory Prezi allows the instructor to assess students' prior knowledge in relation to these questions, while also providing 'hooks' to pique their interest related to the topic. The lab begins by presenting examples of and key differences between climate variability (e.g., Mt. Pinatubo eruption) and

  2. Downscaling a global climate model to simulate climate change over the US and the implication on regional and urban air quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Trail

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the contiguous United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF regional climate model (RCM to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12 km by 12 km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major US cities. The high-resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse-resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the US during fall (western US, Texas, northeastern, and southeastern US, one region during summer (Texas, and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast. Changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels are increased temperatures and stagnation along with decreased precipitation and ventilation. We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the US, which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air

  3. Alpine ecosystem vulnerability to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau: Global implications for carbon balance, regional consequences for local pastoralists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopping, K. A.; Klein, J. A.; Hu, J.; Kang, S.

    2010-12-01

    The Tibetan Plateau is predicted to undergo climate warming much greater than the global average, as well as shifts in its currently monsoon-dominated precipitation regime. These changes will likely affect the vegetation composition, carbon balance, and nutrient cycling of this alpine, social-ecological system. In 2009 we established a fully factorial experiment to test ecosystem responses to predicted climate changes on the Tibetan Plateau. Our experiment site (4870 m) is located in the foothills of the Nyanchenthanglha Mountains, where local pastoralists graze their livestock. The site is representative of central Tibet’s alpine meadow ecosystems, with the turf-forming sedge, Kobresia pygmaea, as both the dominant species and preferred forage of yaks. Our climate treatments are spring snow addition, which is added at 1-m depth to simulate severe snowstorms, and warming with open top chambers, which elevate air temperatures by an average of 1.2 degrees Celsius. The climate treatments are fully crossed with controlled grazing by yaks, which represents the primary livelihood practice of herders at our study site and throughout Tibet’s grasslands. To better understand the ecosystem shifts that may occur under climate change in this alpine system and to elucidate the drivers of these shifts, we collected data from a suite of measurements in each of our plots. Using a LiCOR 6400 infrared gas analyzer, we measured CO2 fluxes at 4 periods throughout the growing season to obtain values for net ecosystem productivity (NEP), ecosystem respiration, and gross primary productivity. We also measured available nitrogen (N) across three distinct moisture regimes (snowmelt, dry-down, and monsoon). Finally, we quantified changes in vegetation composition and recorded air and soil temperature and soil moisture throughout the growing season. After two years of applying treatments, our findings suggest that Tibet’s alpine grasslands are particularly vulnerable to climate change

  4. Greenland climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Swingedouw, Didier; Landais, Amaëlle;

    2012-01-01

    Climate archives available from deep-sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that during the last decade (2000s...... during the last 10 000 years, highlighting the role of soil dynamics in past vegetation changes, and stressing the growing anthropogenic impacts on soil erosion during recent decades. Furthermore, past and present changes in atmospheric and oceanic heat advection appear to severely influence both...... regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. The magnitude and rate of future changes in Greenland temperature, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, may be faster than any past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Projections indicate that within one century Greenland may...

  5. Climate change and vector-borne diseases: what are the implications for public health research and policy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Manga, Lucien; Bagayoko, Magaran; Sommerfeld, Johannes

    2015-04-01

    Vector-borne diseases continue to contribute significantly to the global burden of disease, and cause epidemics that disrupt health security and cause wider socioeconomic impacts around the world. All are sensitive in different ways to weather and climate conditions, so that the ongoing trends of increasing temperature and more variable weather threaten to undermine recent global progress against these diseases. Here, we review the current state of the global public health effort to address this challenge, and outline related initiatives by the World Health Organization (WHO) and its partners. Much of the debate to date has centred on attribution of past changes in disease rates to climate change, and the use of scenario-based models to project future changes in risk for specific diseases. While these can give useful indications, the unavoidable uncertainty in such analyses, and contingency on other socioeconomic and public health determinants in the past or future, limit their utility as decision-support tools. For operational health agencies, the most pressing need is the strengthening of current disease control efforts to bring down current disease rates and manage short-term climate risks, which will, in turn, increase resilience to long-term climate change. The WHO and partner agencies are working through a range of programmes to (i) ensure political support and financial investment in preventive and curative interventions to bring down current disease burdens; (ii) promote a comprehensive approach to climate risk management; (iii) support applied research, through definition of global and regional research agendas, and targeted research initiatives on priority diseases and population groups. PMID:25688013

  6. The climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to take stock on the climatic change situation and initiatives at the beginning of 2006, the INES (National Institute on the Solar Energy) proposes this special document. It presents the Montreal conference of December 2005, realized to reinforced the actions of the international community against the greenhouse gases. The technical decisions decided at this conference are detailed. The document discusses also the causes and consequences of the climatic warming, the intervention sectors and the actions possibilities. (A.L.B.)

  7. Evaporation and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandsma, T.

    1993-01-01

    In this article the influence of climate change on evaporation is discussed. The emphasis is on open water evaporation. Three methods for calculating evaporation are compared considering only changes in temperature and factors directly dependent on temperature. The Penman-method is used to investiga

  8. Population differentiation in tree-ring growth response of white fir (Abies concolor) to climate: Implications for predicting forest responses to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, D.B.

    1993-10-01

    Forest succession models and correlative models have predicted 200--650 kilometer shifts in the geographic range of temperate forests and forest species as one response to global climate change. Few studies have investigated whether population differences may effect the response of forest species to climate change. This study examines differences in tree-ring growth, and in the phenotypic plasticity of tree-ring growth in 16-year old white fir, Abies concolor, from ten populations grown in four common gardens in the Sierra Nevada of California. For each population, tree-ring growth was modelled as a function of precipitation and degree-day sums. Tree-ring growth under three scenarios of doubled C0{sub 2} climates was estimated.

  9. Climate Change: Good for Us?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oblak, Jackie

    2000-01-01

    Presents an activity with the objective of encouraging students to think about the effects of climate change. Explains background information on dependence to climate and discuses whether climate change is important. Provides information for the activity, extensions, and evaluation. (YDS)

  10. Simulated climate change impact on summer dissolved organic carbon release from peat and surface vegetation: implications for drinking water treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritson, Jonathan P; Bell, Michael; Graham, Nigel J D; Templeton, Michael R; Brazier, Richard E; Verhoef, Anne; Freeman, Chris; Clark, Joanna M

    2014-12-15

    Uncertainty regarding changes in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) quantity and quality has created interest in managing peatlands for their ecosystem services such as drinking water provision. The evidence base for such interventions is, however, sometimes contradictory. We performed a laboratory climate manipulation using a factorial design on two dominant peatland vegetation types (Calluna vulgaris and Sphagnum Spp.) and a peat soil collected from a drinking water catchment in Exmoor National Park, UK. Temperature and rainfall were set to represent baseline and future conditions under the UKCP09 2080s high emissions scenario for July and August. DOC leachate then underwent standard water treatment of coagulation/flocculation before chlorination. C. vulgaris leached more DOC than Sphagnum Spp. (7.17 versus 3.00 mg g(-1)) with higher specific ultraviolet (SUVA) values and a greater sensitivity to climate, leaching more DOC under simulated future conditions. The peat soil leached less DOC (0.37 mg g(-1)) than the vegetation and was less sensitive to climate. Differences in coagulation removal efficiency between the DOC sources appears to be driven by relative solubilisation of protein-like DOC, observed through the fluorescence peak C/T. Post-coagulation only differences between vegetation types were detected for the regulated disinfection by-products (DBPs), suggesting climate change influence at this scale can be removed via coagulation. Our results suggest current biodiversity restoration programmes to encourage Sphagnum Spp. will result in lower DOC concentrations and SUVA values, particularly with warmer and drier summers. PMID:25262551

  11. The Implications of Future Food Demand on Global Land Use, Land-Use Change Emissions, and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Luckow, P.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Eom, J.; Kim, S.; Moss, R.; Patel, P.

    2011-12-01

    In 2005, cropland accounted for approximately 10% of global land area. The amount of cropland needed in the future depends on a number of factors including global population, dietary preferences, and agricultural crop yields. In this paper, we explore the effect of various assumptions about global food demand and agricultural productivity between now and 2100 on global land use, land-use change emissions, and climate using the GCAM model. GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated, global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. For this analysis, we look at the effect of alternative socioeconomic pathways, crop yield improvement assumptions, and future meat demand scenarios on the demand for agricultural land. The three socioeconomic pathways explore worlds where global population in 2100 ranges from 6 billion people to 14 billion people. The crop yield improvement assumptions range from a world where yields do not improve beyond today's levels to a world with significantly higher crop productivity. The meat demand scenarios range from a vegetarian world to a world where meat is a dominant source of calories in the global diet. For each of these scenarios, we find that sufficient land exists to feed the global economy. However, rates of deforestation, bioenergy potential, land-use change emissions, and climate change differ across the scenarios. Under less favorable scenarios, deforestation rates, land-use change emissions, and the rate of climate change can be adversely affected.

  12. Climate change in the sea: the implications of increasing the carbon dioxide inputs to the surface ocean

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pfister, Cathy [University of Chicago

    2012-12-23

    The oceans are estimated to be absorbing one-third of the fossil fuel carbon released into the atmosphere, a process that is expected to change ocean carbon chemistry. I will present data from the Washington coast showing ocean pH declines and changes to the shell chemistry of bivalves. I will discuss implications of carbon cycle changes for marine species, including insights from a coastal area where I have worked for more than 24 years. I will summarize what we know to date about this process of “ocean acidification”.

  13. Potential Implications of PCM Climate Change Scenarios for Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basin Hydrology and Water Resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Rheenen, N.T.; Wood, A.W.; Palmer, R.N.; Lettenmaier, D.P. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 164 Wilcox Hall, P.O. Box 352700, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-2700 (United States)

    2004-07-01

    The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basin were evaluated using ensemble climate simulations generated by the U.S. Department of Energy and National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (DOE/NCAR PCM). Five PCM scenarios were employed. The first three were ensemble runs from 1995-2099 with a 'business as usual' global emissions scenario, each with different atmospheric initializations. The fourth was a 'control climate' scenario with greenhouse gas emissions set at 1995 levels and run through 2099. The fifth was a historical climate simulation forced with evolving greenhouse gas concentrations from 1870-2000, from which a 50-year portion is taken for use in bias-correction of the other runs. From these global simulations, transient monthly temperature and precipitation sequences were statistically downscaled to produce continuous daily hydrologic model forcings, which drove a macro-scale hydrology model of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basins at a ?-degree spatial resolution, and produced daily streamflow sequences for each climate scenario. Each streamflow scenario was used in a water resources system model that simulated current and predicted future performance of the system. The progressive warming of the PCM scenarios (approximately 1.2C at midcentury, and 2.2C by the 2090s), coupled with reductions in winter and spring precipitation (from 10 to 25%), markedly reduced late spring snowpack (by as much as half on average by the end of the century). Progressive reductions in winter, spring, and summer streamflow were less severe in the northern part of the study domain than in the south, where a seasonality shift was apparent. Results from the water resources system model indicate that achieving and maintaining status quo (control scenario climate) system performance in the future would be nearly impossible, given the altered climate scenario

  14. Assessing Potential Implications of Climate Change for Long-Term Water Resources Planning in the Colorado River Basin, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munevar, A.; Butler, S.; Anderson, R.; Rippole, J.

    2008-12-01

    While much of the focus on climate change impacts to water resources in the western United States has been related to snow-dominated watersheds, lower elevation basins such as the Colorado River Basin in Texas are dependent on rainfall as the predominant form of precipitation and source of supply. Water management in these basins has evolved to adapt to extreme climatic and hydrologic variability, but the impact of climate change is potentially more acute due to rapid runoff response and subsequent greater soil moisture depletion during the dry seasons. The Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) - San Antonio Water System (SAWS) Water Project is being studied to conserve water, develop conjunctive groundwater supplies, and capture excess and unused river flows to meet future water needs for two neighboring regions in Texas. Agricultural and other rural water needs would be met on a more reliable basis in the lower Colorado River Basin through water conservation, surface water development and limited groundwater production. Surface water would be transferred to the San Antonio area to meet municipal needs in quantities still being evaluated. Detailed studies are addressing environmental, agricultural, socioeconomic, and engineering aspects of the project. Key planning activities include evaluating instream flow criteria, water quality, bay freshwater inflow criteria, surface water availability and operating approaches, agricultural conservation measures, groundwater availability, and economics. Models used to estimate future water availability and environmental flow requirements have been developed largely based on historical observed hydrologic data. This is a common approach used by water planners as well as by many regulatory agencies for permit review. In view of the project's 80-yr planning horizon, contractual obligations, comments from the Science Review Panel, and increased public and regulatory awareness of climate change issues, the project team is

  15. Topologies of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is quickly becoming a ubiquitous socionatural reality, mediating extremes of sociospatial scale from the bodily to the planetary. Although environmentalism invites us to ‘think globally and act locally', the meaning of these scalar designations remains ambiguous. This paper explores...... the topological presuppositions of social theory in the context of global climate change, asking how carbon emissions ‘translate' into various sociomaterial forms. Staging a meeting between Tim Ingold's phenomenology of globes and spheres and the social topologies of actor-network theory (ANT), the paper advances...

  16. Implications of Climate Change for Bird Conservation in the Southwestern U.S. under Three Alternative Futures

    OpenAIRE

    Megan M Friggens; Finch, Deborah M.

    2015-01-01

    Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy's warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus). Our goal was to provide site- and species-specific informatio...

  17. Climate Change, Health, and Communication: A Primer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadwick, Amy E

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most serious and pervasive challenges facing us today. Our changing climate has implications not only for the ecosystems upon which we depend, but also for human health. Health communication scholars are well-positioned to aid in the mitigation of and response to climate change and its health effects. To help theorists, researchers, and practitioners engage in these efforts, this primer explains relevant issues and vocabulary associated with climate change and its impacts on health. First, this primer provides an overview of climate change, its causes and consequences, and its impacts on health. Then, the primer describes ways to decrease impacts and identifies roles for health communication scholars in efforts to address climate change and its health effects.

  18. Climate Change, Health, and Communication: A Primer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadwick, Amy E

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most serious and pervasive challenges facing us today. Our changing climate has implications not only for the ecosystems upon which we depend, but also for human health. Health communication scholars are well-positioned to aid in the mitigation of and response to climate change and its health effects. To help theorists, researchers, and practitioners engage in these efforts, this primer explains relevant issues and vocabulary associated with climate change and its impacts on health. First, this primer provides an overview of climate change, its causes and consequences, and its impacts on health. Then, the primer describes ways to decrease impacts and identifies roles for health communication scholars in efforts to address climate change and its health effects. PMID:26580230

  19. Water-borne diseases and extreme weather events in Cambodia: review of impacts and implications of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Grace I; McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Yoonhee; Hashizume, Masahiro; Iddings, Steven; Chan, Vibol

    2014-12-23

    Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.

  20. Water-Borne Diseases and Extreme Weather Events in Cambodia: Review of Impacts and Implications of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grace I. Davies

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.

  1. Island-specific preferences of tourists for environmental features: implications of climate change for tourism dependent states

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uyarra, M.C.; Cote, I.M. [East Anglia Univ., Norwich (United Kingdom). Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Conservation; Gill, J.A. [East Anglia Univ., Norwich (United Kingdom). School of Environmental Sciences; Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich (United Kingdom); Tinch, R.T. [East Anglia Univ., Norwich (United Kingdom). School of Environmental Sciences; Macaulay Land Use Research Inst., Aberdeen (United Kingdom); Viner, D. [East Anglia Univ., Norwich (United Kingdom). Climate Research Unit; Watkinson, A.R. [East Anglia Univ., Norwich (United Kingdom). Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Conservation; East Anglia Univ., Norwich (United Kingdom). School of Environmental Sciences

    2005-03-15

    Climate change may affect important environmental components of holiday destinations, which might have repercussions for tourism-dependent economies. This study documents the importance of environmental attributes in determining the choice and holiday enjoyment of tourists visiting Bonaire and Barbados, two Caribbean islands with markedly different tourism markets and infrastructure. Three hundred and sixteen and 338 participants from Bonaire and Barbados, respectively, completed standardized questionnaires. Warm temperatures, clear waters and low health risks were the most important environmental features determining holiday destination choice. However, tourists in Bonaire thereafter prioritized marine wildlife attributes (i.e. coral and fish diversity and abundance) over other environmental features, whereas tourists in Barbados exhibited stronger preferences for terrestrial features, particularly beach characteristics. The willingness of tourists to revisit these islands was strongly linked to the state of the preferred environmental attributes. More than 80% of tourists in Bonaire and Barbados would be unwilling to return for the same holiday price in the event, respectively, of coral bleaching as a result of elevated sea surface temperatures and reduced beach area as a result of sea level rise. Climate change might have a significant impact on Caribbean tourism economy through alteration of environmental features important to destination selection. Island-specific management strategies, such as focusing resources on the protection of key marine or terrestrial features, may provide a means of reducing the environmental and economic impacts of climate change. (author)

  2. Climate change and amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corn, P. S.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species

  3. Energy and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-15

    Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

  4. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

  5. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Parks, Sean A

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

  6. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-08-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported.

  7. Impacts of Climate Change on Vector Borne Diseases in the Mediterranean Basin — Implications for Preparedness and Adaptation Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maya Negev

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean region is vulnerable to climatic changes. A warming trend exists in the basin with changes in rainfall patterns. It is expected that vector-borne diseases (VBD in the region will be influenced by climate change since weather conditions influence their emergence. For some diseases (i.e., West Nile virus the linkage between emergence andclimate change was recently proved; for others (such as dengue the risk for local transmission is real. Consequently, adaptation and preparation for changing patterns of VBD distribution is crucial in the Mediterranean basin. We analyzed six representative Mediterranean countries and found that they have started to prepare for this threat, but the preparation levels among them differ, and policy mechanisms are limited and basic. Furthermore, cross-border cooperation is not stable and depends on international frameworks. The Mediterranean countries should improve their adaptation plans, and develop more cross-sectoral, multidisciplinary and participatory approaches. In addition, based on experience from existing local networks in advancing national legislation and trans-border cooperation, we outline recommendations for a regional cooperation framework. We suggest that a stable and neutral framework is required, and that it should address the characteristics and needs of African, Asian and European countries around the Mediterranean in order to ensure participation. Such a regional framework is essential to reduce the risk of VBD transmission, since the vectors of infectious diseases know no political borders.

  8. Impacts of Climate Change on Vector Borne Diseases in the Mediterranean Basin - Implications for Preparedness and Adaptation Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negev, Maya; Paz, Shlomit; Clermont, Alexandra; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Shalom, Uri; Yeger, Tamar; Green, Manfred S

    2015-06-01

    The Mediterranean region is vulnerable to climatic changes. A warming trend exists in the basin with changes in rainfall patterns. It is expected that vector-borne diseases (VBD) in the region will be influenced by climate change since weather conditions influence their emergence. For some diseases (i.e., West Nile virus) the linkage between emergence andclimate change was recently proved; for others (such as dengue) the risk for local transmission is real. Consequently, adaptation and preparation for changing patterns of VBD distribution is crucial in the Mediterranean basin. We analyzed six representative Mediterranean countries and found that they have started to prepare for this threat, but the preparation levels among them differ, and policy mechanisms are limited and basic. Furthermore, cross-border cooperation is not stable and depends on international frameworks. The Mediterranean countries should improve their adaptation plans, and develop more cross-sectoral, multidisciplinary and participatory approaches. In addition, based on experience from existing local networks in advancing national legislation and trans-border cooperation, we outline recommendations for a regional cooperation framework. We suggest that a stable and neutral framework is required, and that it should address the characteristics and needs of African, Asian and European countries around the Mediterranean in order to ensure participation. Such a regional framework is essential to reduce the risk of VBD transmission, since the vectors of infectious diseases know no political borders. PMID:26084000

  9. Range-wide latitudinal and elevational temperature gradients for the world's terrestrial birds: implications under global climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank A La Sorte

    Full Text Available Species' geographical distributions are tracking latitudinal and elevational surface temperature gradients under global climate change. To evaluate the opportunities to track these gradients across space, we provide a first baseline assessment of the steepness of these gradients for the world's terrestrial birds. Within the breeding ranges of 9,014 bird species, we characterized the spatial gradients in temperature along latitude and elevation for all and a subset of bird species, respectively. We summarized these temperature gradients globally for threatened and non-threatened species and determined how their steepness varied based on species' geography (range size, shape, and orientation and projected changes in temperature under climate change. Elevational temperature gradients were steepest for species in Africa, western North and South America, and central Asia and shallowest in Australasia, insular IndoMalaya, and the Neotropical lowlands. Latitudinal temperature gradients were steepest for extratropical species, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Threatened species had shallower elevational gradients whereas latitudinal gradients differed little between threatened and non-threatened species. The strength of elevational gradients was positively correlated with projected changes in temperature. For latitudinal gradients, this relationship only held for extratropical species. The strength of latitudinal gradients was better predicted by species' geography, but primarily for extratropical species. Our findings suggest threatened species are associated with shallower elevational temperature gradients, whereas steep latitudinal gradients are most prevalent outside the tropics where fewer bird species occur year-round. Future modeling and mitigation efforts would benefit from the development of finer grain distributional data to ascertain how these gradients are structured within species' ranges, how and why these gradients vary among

  10. Range-wide latitudinal and elevational temperature gradients for the world's terrestrial birds: implications under global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Sorte, Frank A; Butchart, Stuart H M; Jetz, Walter; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin

    2014-01-01

    Species' geographical distributions are tracking latitudinal and elevational surface temperature gradients under global climate change. To evaluate the opportunities to track these gradients across space, we provide a first baseline assessment of the steepness of these gradients for the world's terrestrial birds. Within the breeding ranges of 9,014 bird species, we characterized the spatial gradients in temperature along latitude and elevation for all and a subset of bird species, respectively. We summarized these temperature gradients globally for threatened and non-threatened species and determined how their steepness varied based on species' geography (range size, shape, and orientation) and projected changes in temperature under climate change. Elevational temperature gradients were steepest for species in Africa, western North and South America, and central Asia and shallowest in Australasia, insular IndoMalaya, and the Neotropical lowlands. Latitudinal temperature gradients were steepest for extratropical species, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Threatened species had shallower elevational gradients whereas latitudinal gradients differed little between threatened and non-threatened species. The strength of elevational gradients was positively correlated with projected changes in temperature. For latitudinal gradients, this relationship only held for extratropical species. The strength of latitudinal gradients was better predicted by species' geography, but primarily for extratropical species. Our findings suggest threatened species are associated with shallower elevational temperature gradients, whereas steep latitudinal gradients are most prevalent outside the tropics where fewer bird species occur year-round. Future modeling and mitigation efforts would benefit from the development of finer grain distributional data to ascertain how these gradients are structured within species' ranges, how and why these gradients vary among species, and the capacity

  11. Learning Progressions & Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Joyce M.; de los Santos, Elizabeth X.; Anderson, Charles W.

    2015-01-01

    Our society is currently having serious debates about sources of energy and global climate change. But do students (and the public) have the requisite knowledge to engage these issues as informed citizenry? The learning-progression research summarized here indicates that only 10% of high school students typically have a level of understanding…

  12. Tackling Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Representatives from nearly 200 countries and regions have gathered in Durban,South Africa,for the 17th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 7th session of the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol.The meeting is the follow-up conference to tacklin

  13. Corporate Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    The American Chamber of Commerce, the People's Republic of China (AmCham-China) and the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai recently released "American Corporate Experience in a Changing China: Insights From AmCham Business Climate Surveys, 1999-2005." Excerpts of the report follow:

  14. DTU Climate Change Technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    During 2008 and 2009, DTU held a workshop series focusing on assessment of and adaption to climate changes as well as on mitigation of green house gasses. In the workshops, a total of 1500 scientists, government officials and business leaders have outlined scenarios for technology development...

  15. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Carmin; K. Tierney; E. Chu; L.M. Hunter; J.T. Roberts; L. Shi

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the financ

  16. Climate Change and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

    OpenAIRE

    Kelman, I.

    2015-01-01

    This article reviews climate change within the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (SFDRR), analyzing how climate change is mentioned in the framework’s text and the potential implications for dealing with climate change within the context of disaster risk reduction. Three main categories are examined. First, climate change affecting disaster risk and disasters, demonstrating too much emphasis on the single hazard driver and diminisher of climate change. Second, cross-secto...

  17. Climate change is predicted to negatively influence Moroccan endemic reptile richness. Implications for conservation in protected areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Freiría, Fernando; Argaz, Hamida; Fahd, Soumía; Brito, José C.

    2013-09-01

    The identification of species-rich areas and their prognosticated turnover under climate change are crucial for the conservation of endemic taxa. This study aims to identify areas of reptile endemicity richness in a global biodiversity hot spot (Morocco) under current and future climatic conditions and to investigate the role of protected areas in biodiversity conservation under climate change. Species distribution models (SDM) were performed over the distribution of 21 endemic reptiles, combined to estimate current species richness at 1 × 1 km resolution and projected to years 2050 and 2080 according to distinct story lines and ensemble global circulation models, assuming unlimited and null dispersion ability. Generalized additive models were performed between species richness and geographic characteristics of 43 protected areas. SDM found precipitation as the most important factor related to current species distributions. Important reductions in future suitable areas were predicted for 50 % of species, and four species were identified as highly vulnerable to extinction. Drastic reductions in species-rich areas were predicted for the future, with considerable variability between years and dispersal scenarios. High turnover rates of species composition were predicted for eastern Morocco, whereas low values were forecasted for the Northern Atlantic coast and mountains. Species richness for current and future conditions was significantly related to the altitude and latitude of protected areas. Protected areas located in mountains and/or in the Northern Atlantic coast were identified as refugia, where population monitoring and conservation management is needed.

  18. Oxygen isotope in archaeological bioapatites from India: Implications to climate change and decline of Bronze Age Harappan civilization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkar, Anindya; Mukherjee, Arati Deshpande; Bera, M K; Das, B; Juyal, Navin; Morthekai, P; Deshpande, R D; Shinde, V S; Rao, L S

    2016-01-01

    The antiquity and decline of the Bronze Age Harappan civilization in the Indus-Ghaggar-Hakra river valleys is an enigma in archaeology. Weakening of the monsoon after ~5 ka BP (and droughts throughout the Asia) is a strong contender for the Harappan collapse, although controversy exists about the synchroneity of climate change and collapse of civilization. One reason for this controversy is lack of a continuous record of cultural levels and palaeomonsoon change in close proximity. We report a high resolution oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) record of animal teeth-bone phosphates from an archaeological trench itself at Bhirrana, NW India, preserving all cultural levels of this civilization. Bhirrana was part of a high concentration of settlements along the dried up mythical Vedic river valley 'Saraswati', an extension of Ghaggar river in the Thar desert. Isotope and archaeological data suggest that the pre-Harappans started inhabiting this area along the mighty Ghaggar-Hakra rivers fed by intensified monsoon from 9 to 7 ka BP. The monsoon monotonically declined after 7 ka yet the settlements continued to survive from early to mature Harappan time. Our study suggests that other cause like change in subsistence strategy by shifting crop patterns rather than climate change was responsible for Harappan collapse.

  19. Oxygen isotope in archaeological bioapatites from India: Implications to climate change and decline of Bronze Age Harappan civilization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkar, Anindya; Mukherjee, Arati Deshpande; Bera, M K; Das, B; Juyal, Navin; Morthekai, P; Deshpande, R D; Shinde, V S; Rao, L S

    2016-01-01

    The antiquity and decline of the Bronze Age Harappan civilization in the Indus-Ghaggar-Hakra river valleys is an enigma in archaeology. Weakening of the monsoon after ~5 ka BP (and droughts throughout the Asia) is a strong contender for the Harappan collapse, although controversy exists about the synchroneity of climate change and collapse of civilization. One reason for this controversy is lack of a continuous record of cultural levels and palaeomonsoon change in close proximity. We report a high resolution oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) record of animal teeth-bone phosphates from an archaeological trench itself at Bhirrana, NW India, preserving all cultural levels of this civilization. Bhirrana was part of a high concentration of settlements along the dried up mythical Vedic river valley 'Saraswati', an extension of Ghaggar river in the Thar desert. Isotope and archaeological data suggest that the pre-Harappans started inhabiting this area along the mighty Ghaggar-Hakra rivers fed by intensified monsoon from 9 to 7 ka BP. The monsoon monotonically declined after 7 ka yet the settlements continued to survive from early to mature Harappan time. Our study suggests that other cause like change in subsistence strategy by shifting crop patterns rather than climate change was responsible for Harappan collapse. PMID:27222033

  20. Challenges of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husaini, Amjad M

    2014-01-01

    Kashmir valley is a major saffron (Crocus sativus Kashmirianus) growing area of the world, second only to Iran in terms of production. In Kashmir, saffron is grown on uplands (termed in the local language as “Karewas”), which are lacustrine deposits located at an altitude of 1585 to 1677 m above mean sea level (amsl), under temperate climatic conditions. Kashmir, despite being one of the oldest historical saffron-producing areas faces a rapid decline of saffron industry. Among many other factors responsible for decline of saffron industry the preponderance of erratic rainfalls and drought-like situation have become major challenges imposed by climate change. Saffron has a limited coverage area as it is grown as a ‘niche crop’ and is a recognized “geographical indication,” growing under a narrow microclimatic condition. As such it has become a victim of climate change effects, which has the potential of jeopardizing the livelihood of thousands of farmers and traders associated with it. The paper discusses the potential and actual impact of climate change process on saffron cultivation in Kashmir; and the biotechnological measures to address these issues. PMID:25072266

  1. The Blazing Arctic? Linkages of Tundra Fire Regimes to Climatic Change and Implications for Carbon Cycling (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, F.; Higuera, P. E.; Walsh, J. E.; Chapman, W.; Duffy, P.; Brubaker, L.; Chipman, M. L.

    2010-12-01

    Among the major challenges in anticipating Arctic changes are “surprises” stemming from changes in system components that have remained relatively stable in the historic record. Tundra burning is potentially one such component. We conducted charcoal analysis of lake sediments from several tundra regions to evaluate the uniqueness of recent tundra fires, and examined potential climatic controls of Alaskan tundra fires from CE 1950-2009. A striking example of tundra burning is the 2007 Anaktuvuk River (AR) Fire, an unusually large fire in the tundra of the Alaskan Arctic. This fire doubled the area burned north of 68 oN in that region since record keeping began in 1950. Analysis of lake-sediment cores reveals peak values of charcoal accumulation corresponding to the AR Fire in 2007, with no evidence of other fire events in that area throughout the past five millennia. However, a number of tundra fires, including one as large as the AR Fire, have occurred over the past 60 years in western Alaska, where average summer temperatures are substantially higher than the AR area. In addition, charcoal analysis of lake sediments from interior and northwestern Alaska suggests that during certain periods of the Late Glacial and Holocene, tundra fire frequencies were as high as those of the modern boreal forests. These records along with the AR and historic fires demonstrate that tundra ecosystems support diverse fire regimes and can burn frequently. Reconciling these dramatic differences in tundra fire regimes requires knowledge of climate-fire relationships. Atmospheric reanalysis suggests that the AR Fire was favored by exceptionally warm/dry weather conditions in summer and early autumn. Boosted regression tree modeling shows that warm, dry summer conditions can explain up to 95% of the inter-annual variability in tundra area burned throughout Alaska over the past 60 years and that the response of tundra burning to climatic warming is non-linear. Additionally, tundra area

  2. Africa and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toulmin, Camilla; Huq, Saleemul

    2006-10-15

    Remember the scenes from New Orleans of flooded streets and scavenging people? One year on and little progress is evident in achieving the step-change needed in controlling greenhouse gases. Hurricane Katrina showed only too vividly the massive power of natural forces combined with inadequate preparation. The flood waters washed away and exposed fully the lack of planning and low priority given to securing life and livelihoods, especially of the more vulnerable groups in the community. If this is what a whirlwind can bring in the southern USA, what might we reap in further storms and droughts tomorrow in poorer parts of the world? New research findings point to the likelihood of larger, faster and more substantial changes to our climate system. The African continent is particularly vulnerable to adverse changes in climate, the evidence for which is becoming more and more stark.

  3. Differential response to soil salinity in endangered key tree cactus: implications for survival in a changing climate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joie Goodman

    Full Text Available Understanding reasons for biodiversity loss is essential for developing conservation and management strategies and is becoming increasingly urgent with climate change. Growing at elevations <1.4 m in the Florida Keys, USA, the endangered Key tree cactus (Pilosocereus robinii experienced 84 percent loss of total stems from 1994 to 2007. The most severe losses of 99 and 88 percent stems occurred in the largest populations in the Lower Keys, where nine storms with high wind velocities and storm surges, occurred during this period. In contrast, three populations had substantial stem proliferation. To evaluate possible mortality factors related to changes in climate or forest structure, we examined habitat variables: soil salinity, elevation, canopy cover, and habitat structure near 16 dying or dead and 18 living plants growing in the Lower Keys. Soil salinity and elevation were the preliminary factors that discriminated live and dead plants. Soil salinity was 1.5 times greater, but elevation was 12 cm higher near dead plants than near live plants. However, distribution-wide stem loss was not significantly related to salinity or elevation. Controlled salinity trials indicated that salt tolerance to levels above 40 mM NaCl was related to maternal origin. Salt sensitive plants from the Lower Keys had less stem growth, lower root:shoot ratios, lower potassium: sodium ratios and lower recovery rate, but higher δ (13C than a salt tolerant lineage of unknown origin. Unraveling the genetic structure of salt tolerant and salt sensitive lineages in the Florida Keys will require further genetic tests. Worldwide rare species restricted to fragmented, low-elevation island habitats, with little or no connection to higher ground will face challenges from climate change-related factors. These great conservation challenges will require traditional conservation actions and possibly managed relocation that must be informed by studies such as these.

  4. Weather, water quality and infectious gastrointestinal illness in two Inuit communities in Nunatsiavut, Canada: potential implications for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Sherilee L; Edge, Victoria L; Schuster-Wallace, Corinne J; Berke, Olaf; McEwen, Scott A

    2011-03-01

    Climate change is expected to cause changes in precipitation quantity, intensity, frequency and duration, which will subsequently alter environmental conditions and might increase the risk of waterborne disease. The objective of this study was to describe the seasonality of and explore associations between weather, water quality and occurrence of infectious gastrointestinal illnesses (IGI) in two communities in Nunatsiavut, Canada. Weather data were obtained from meteorological stations in Nain (2005-2008) and Rigolet (2008). Free-chlorine residual levels in drinking water were extracted from municipal records (2005-2008). Raw surface water was tested weekly for total coliform and E. coli counts. Daily counts of IGI-related clinic visits were obtained from health clinic registries (2005-2008). Analysis of weather and health variables included seasonal-trend decomposition procedures based on Loess. Multivariable zero-inflated Poisson regression was used to examine potential associations between weather events (considering 0-4 week lag periods) and IGI-related clinic visits. In Nain, water volume input (rainfall + snowmelt) peaked in spring and summer and was positively associated with levels of raw water bacteriological variables. The number of IGI-related clinic visits peaked in the summer and fall months. Significant positive associations were observed between high levels of water volume input 2 and 4 weeks prior, and IGI-related clinic visits (P climate change on regional Inuit human and environmental health.

  5. Teaching Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donoghue, A.

    2011-09-01

    In giving public presentations about climate change, we face the barriers of mis-information in the political debate and lack of science literacy that extends to science phobia for some. In climate issues, the later problem is compounded by the fact that the science - reconstruction of past climate through the use of proxy sources, such as isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen - is complex, making it more challenging for general audiences. Also, the process of science, particularly peer review, is suspected by some to be a way of keeping science orthodox instead of keeping it honest. I approach these barriers by focusing on the data and the fact that the data have been carefully acquired over decades and centuries by dedicated people with no political agenda. I have taught elderhostel courses twice and have given many public talks on this topic. Thus I have experience in this area to share with others. I would also like to learn of others' approaches to the vast amount of scientific information and getting past the politics. A special interest group on climate change will allow those of us to speak on this important topic to share how we approach both the science and the politics of this issue.

  6. Living with development and climate change in Northern Ghana

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olwig, Mette Fog

    of global climate change. In the aftermath of severe flooding attributable to climate change in northern Ghana in 2007, it examines how translocal relations are implicated in the changes in development policy and practice that are taking place during this age of climate change anxiety. The dissertation thus...

  7. Climate Change Education in Earth System Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänsel, Stephanie; Matschullat, Jörg

    2013-04-01

    The course "Atmospheric Research - Climate Change" is offered to master Earth System Science students within the specialisation "Climate and Environment" at the Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg. This module takes a comprehensive approach to climate sciences, reaching from the natural sciences background of climate change via the social components of the issue to the statistical analysis of changes in climate parameters. The course aims at qualifying the students to structure the physical and chemical basics of the climate system including relevant feedbacks. The students can evaluate relevant drivers of climate variability and change on various temporal and spatial scales and can transform knowledge from climate history to the present and the future. Special focus is given to the assessment of uncertainties related to climate observations and projections as well as the specific challenges of extreme weather and climate events. At the end of the course the students are able to critically reflect and evaluate climate change related results of scientific studies and related issues in media. The course is divided into two parts - "Climate Change" and "Climate Data Analysis" and encompasses two lectures, one seminar and one exercise. The weekly "Climate change" lecture transmits the physical and chemical background for climate variation and change. (Pre)historical, observed and projected climate changes and their effects on various sectors are being introduced and discussed regarding their implications for society, economics, ecology and politics. The related seminar presents and discusses the multiple reasons for controversy in climate change issues, based on various texts. Students train the presentation of scientific content and the discussion of climate change aspects. The biweekly lecture on "Climate data analysis" introduces the most relevant statistical tools and methods in climate science. Starting with checking data quality via tools of exploratory

  8. Radar monitoring of hydrology in Maryland's forested coastal plain wetlands: Implications for predicted climate change and improved mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiner Lang, Megan

    Wetlands provide important services to society but Mid-Atlantic wetlands are at high risk for loss, with forested wetlands being especially vulnerable. Hydrology (flooding and soil moisture) controls wetland function and extent but it may be altered due to changes in climate and anthropogenic influence. Wetland hydrology must better understood in order to predict and mitigate the impact of these changes. Broad-scale forested wetland hydrology is difficult to monitor using ground-based and traditional remote sensing methods. C-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data could improve the capability to monitor forested wetland hydrology but the abilities and limitations of these data need further investigation. This study examined: (1) the link between climate and wetland hydrology; (2) the ability of ENVISAT SAR (C-HH and C-VV) data to monitor inundation and soil moisture in forested wetlands; (3) limitations inherent to C-band data (incidence angle, polarization, and phenology) when monitoring forested wetland hydrology; and (4) the accuracy of forested wetland maps produced using SAR data. The study was primarily conducted near the Patuxent River in Maryland but the influence of incidence angle was considered along the Roanoke River in North Carolina. This study showed: (1) climate was highly correlated with wetland inundation; (2) significant differences in C-VV and C-HH backscatter existed between forested areas of varying hydrology (uplands and wetlands) throughout the year; (3) C-HH backscatter was better correlated to hydrology than C-VV backscatter; (4) correlations were stronger during the leaf-off season; (5) the difference in backscatter between flooded and non-flooded areas did not sharply decline with incidence angle, as predicted; and (6) maps produced using SAR data had relatively high accuracy levels. Based on these findings, I concluded that hydrology is influenced by climate at the study site, and C-HH data should be able to monitor changes in

  9. Hindcasting Historical Breeding Conditions for an Endangered Salamander in Ephemeral Wetlands of the Southeastern USA: Implications of Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Houston C Chandler

    Full Text Available The hydroperiod of ephemeral wetlands is often the most important characteristic determining amphibian breeding success, especially for species with long development times. In mesic and wet pine flatwoods of the southeastern United States, ephemeral wetlands were a common landscape feature. Reticulated flatwoods salamanders (Ambystoma bishopi, a federally endangered species, depend exclusively on ephemeral wetlands and require at least 11 weeks to successfully metamorphose into terrestrial adults. We empirically modeled hydroperiod of 17 A. bishopi breeding wetlands by combining downscaled historical climate-model data with a recent 9-year record (2006-2014 of observed water levels. Empirical models were subsequently used to reconstruct wetland hydrologic conditions from 1896-2014 using the downscaled historical climate datasets. Reconstructed hydroperiods for the 17 wetlands were highly variable through time but were frequently unfavorable for A. bishopi reproduction (e.g., only 61% of years, using a conservative estimate of development time [12 weeks], were conducive to larval development and metamorphosis. Using change-point analysis, we identified significant shifts in average hydroperiod over the last century in all 17 wetlands. Mean hydroperiods were shorter in recent years than at any other point since 1896, and thus less suitable for A. bishopi reproduction. We suggest that climate change will continue to impact the reproductive success of flatwoods salamanders and other ephemeral wetland breeders by reducing the number of years these wetlands have suitable hydroperiods. Consequently, we emphasize the importance of conservation and management for mitigating other forms of habitat degradation, especially maintenance of high quality breeding sites where reproduction can occur during appropriate environmental conditions.

  10. Hindcasting Historical Breeding Conditions for an Endangered Salamander in Ephemeral Wetlands of the Southeastern USA: Implications of Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandler, Houston C; Rypel, Andrew L; Jiao, Yan; Haas, Carola A; Gorman, Thomas A

    2016-01-01

    The hydroperiod of ephemeral wetlands is often the most important characteristic determining amphibian breeding success, especially for species with long development times. In mesic and wet pine flatwoods of the southeastern United States, ephemeral wetlands were a common landscape feature. Reticulated flatwoods salamanders (Ambystoma bishopi), a federally endangered species, depend exclusively on ephemeral wetlands and require at least 11 weeks to successfully metamorphose into terrestrial adults. We empirically modeled hydroperiod of 17 A. bishopi breeding wetlands by combining downscaled historical climate-model data with a recent 9-year record (2006-2014) of observed water levels. Empirical models were subsequently used to reconstruct wetland hydrologic conditions from 1896-2014 using the downscaled historical climate datasets. Reconstructed hydroperiods for the 17 wetlands were highly variable through time but were frequently unfavorable for A. bishopi reproduction (e.g., only 61% of years, using a conservative estimate of development time [12 weeks], were conducive to larval development and metamorphosis). Using change-point analysis, we identified significant shifts in average hydroperiod over the last century in all 17 wetlands. Mean hydroperiods were shorter in recent years than at any other point since 1896, and thus less suitable for A. bishopi reproduction. We suggest that climate change will continue to impact the reproductive success of flatwoods salamanders and other ephemeral wetland breeders by reducing the number of years these wetlands have suitable hydroperiods. Consequently, we emphasize the importance of conservation and management for mitigating other forms of habitat degradation, especially maintenance of high quality breeding sites where reproduction can occur during appropriate environmental conditions.

  11. Heat exposure, cardiovascular stress and work productivity in rice harvesters in India: implications for a climate change future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahu, Subhashis; Sett, Moumita; Kjellstrom, Tord

    2013-01-01

    Excessive workplace heat exposures create well-known risks of heat stroke, and it limits the workers' capacity to sustain physical activity. There is very limited evidence available on how these effects reduce work productivity, while the quantitative relationship between heat and work productivity is an essential basis for climate change impact assessments. We measured hourly heat exposure in rice fields in West Bengal and recorded perceived health problems via interviews of 124 rice harvesters. In a sub-group (n = 48) heart rate was recorded every minute in a standard work situation. Work productivity was recorded as hourly rice bundle collection output. The hourly heat levels (WBGT = Wet Bulb Globe Temperature) were 26-32°C (at air temperatures of 30-38°C), exceeding international standards. Most workers reported exhaustion and pain during work on hot days. Heart rate recovered quickly at low heat, but more slowly at high heat, indicating cardiovascular strain. The hourly number of rice bundles collected was significantly reduced at WBGT>26°C (approximately 5% per°C of increased WBGT). We conclude that high heat exposure in agriculture caused heat strain and reduced work productivity. This reduction will be exacerbated by climate change and may undermine the local economy.

  12. Outchasing climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    Pygmy possums, monarch butterflies, spoon-billed sandpipers, and a number of trees and other plants could be among the species unable to migrate fast enough to new habitat in the face of potential global climate changes, according to an August 30 report by the Switzerland-based World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and the U.S. based Clean-Air-Cool Planet (CACP), two conservation organizations.

  13. Confronting Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mintzer, Irving M.

    1992-06-01

    This book, which was published in time for the Earth Summit in Brazil in June 1992, is likely to make a huge impact on the political and economic agendas of international policy makers. It summarizes the scientific findings of Working Group I of the IPCC in the first part of the book. While acknowledging the uncertainties in subsequent chapters, it challenges and expands upon the existing views on how we should tackle the problems of climate change.

  14. Managing Climate Change Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB1 Aspendale, Victoria 3195 (Australia)

    2003-07-01

    Issues of uncertainty, scale and delay between action and response mean that 'dangerous' climate change is best managed within a risk assessment framework that evolves as new information is gathered. Risk can be broadly defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence; the latter measured as vulnerability to greenhouse-induced climate change. The most robust way to assess climate change damages in a probabilistic framework is as the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance. Because vulnerability is dominated by local factors, global vulnerability is the aggregation of many local impacts being forced beyond their coping ranges. Several case studies, generic sea level rise and temperature, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and water supply in an Australian catchment, are used to show how local risk assessments can be assessed then expressed as a function of global warming. Impacts treated thus can be aggregated to assess global risks consistent with Article 2 of the UNFCCC. A 'proof of concept' example is then used to show how the stabilisation of greenhouse gases can constrain the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds at both the both local and global scale. This analysis suggests that even if the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages can be estimated, the likelihood of being able to meet a cost-benefit target is limited by both physical and socio-economic uncertainties. In terms of managing climate change risks, adaptation will be most effective at reducing vulnerability likely to occur at low levels of warming. Successive efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases will reduce the likelihood of reaching levels of global warming from the top down, with the highest potential temperatures being avoided first, irrespective of contributing scientific uncertainties. This implies that the first cuts in emissions will always produce the largest economic benefits in terms of avoided

  15. Cyanobacteria are confined to dewless habitats within a dew desert: Implications for past and future climate change for lithic microorganisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidron, Giora J.; Starinsky, Abraham; Yaalon, Dan H.

    2014-11-01

    Although covering almost all rock outcrops around the world, little is known regarding the factors that govern the spatial distribution of lithic cyanobacteria and lichens. This is also the case in the Negev Desert, where cyanobacteria predominate on the rock outcrops of the south-facing slopes and lichens on the rock outcrops of the north-facing slopes. Hypothesizing that abiotic conditions determine their distribution, radiation, temperature, rain, dew and fog were monitored over a two-year period (2008-2010) at cyanobacteria- and lichen-dwelling habitats within a first-order drainage basin in the Negev Highlands. While non-significant differences characterized the rain amounts, substantial differences in substrate temperatures were recorded which resulted in turn in fundamental differences in the non-rainfall water regime. While dew condensed at the rock outcrops of the lichen habitat, no condensation took place at the cyanobacteria habitat. Contrary to the common belief, cyanobacteria were found to inhabit dewless habitats. As a result, cyanobacteria solely rely on rain precipitation for growth and can therefore serve as bioindicators for dewless habitats within the dewy Negev Desert. The findings may have important implications regarding Earth colonization, soil forming processes and geochemical processes following climate warming. They may explain lichen expansion and subsequent O2 increase during the mid Neoproterozoic providing indirect support for substantial photosynthetic activity and high weathering rates during this era.

  16. Sustainable development and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The relationships between the fight against climatic change and the objective of sustainable development have acquired an historical perspective: the Framework Convention of 1992, the Kyoto Protocol and the Bonn-Marrakech Accords. The Convention demonstrates that we must strive for economic growth and sustainable development to allow developing countries to better face the problems associated with climatic change. In the Kyoto Protocol, the commitments agreed upon by northern countries were presented as implicating a group of policies that promote sustainable development. The author discussed the challenges, the contradictions, and the means available to fight against climatic change since Rio. The author begins by expressing the hope that the Kyoto Protocol will be ratified at the Johannesburg Summit, since Russia is moving forward, despite the withdrawal of the United States. Scientists seem to agree that global warming is occurring due to the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. There are two major difficulties encountered in attempting to stabilize the levels of greenhouse gases: (1) are the countries that emit the most gases in a position to alter their activities in an effort to reduce emissions? and (2) will developing countries be able to avoid the pitfalls that led developed countries to emit greenhouse gases in enormous quantities?

  17. Survival and growth patterns of white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss) rangewide provenances and their implications for climate change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Pengxin; Parker, William H; Cherry, Marilyn; Colombo, Steve; Parker, William C; Man, Rongzhou; Roubal, Ngaire

    2014-06-01

    Intraspecific assisted migration (ISAM) through seed transfer during artificial forest regeneration has been suggested as an adaptation strategy to enhance forest resilience and productivity under future climate. In this study, we assessed the risks and benefits of ISAM in white spruce based on long-term and multilocation, rangewide provenance test data. Our results indicate that the adaptive capacity and growth potential of white spruce varied considerably among 245 range-wide provenances sampled across North America; however, the results revealed that local populations could be outperformed by nonlocal ones. Provenances originating from south-central Ontario and southwestern Québec, Canada, close to the southern edge of the species' natural distribution, demonstrated superior growth in more northerly environments compared with local populations and performed much better than populations from western Canada and Alaska, United States. During the 19-28 years between planting and measurement, the southern provenances have not been more susceptible to freezing damage compared with local populations, indicating they have the potential to be used now for the reforestation of more northerly planting sites; based on changing temperature, these seed sources potentially could maintain or increase white spruce productivity at or above historical levels at northern sites. A universal response function (URF), which uses climatic variables to predict provenance performance across field trials, indicated a relatively weak relationship between provenance performance and the climate at provenance origin. Consequently, the URF from this study did not provide information useful to ISAM. The ecological and economic importance of conserving white spruce genetic resources in south-central Ontario and southwestern Québec for use in ISAM is discussed.

  18. Climate change and stream temperature projections in the Columbia River Basin: biological implications of spatial variation in hydrologic drivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. L. Ficklin

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Water temperature is a primary physical factor regulating the persistence and distribution of aquatic taxa. Considering projected increases in temperature and changes in precipitation in the coming century, accurate assessment of suitable thermal habitat in freshwater systems is critical for predicting aquatic species responses to changes in climate and for guiding adaptation strategies. We use a hydrologic model coupled with a stream temperature model and downscaled General Circulation Model outputs to explore the spatially and temporally varying changes in stream temperature at the subbasin and ecological province scale for the Columbia River Basin. On average, stream temperatures are projected to increase 3.5 °C for the spring, 5.2 °C for the summer, 2.7 °C for the fall, and 1.6 °C for the winter. While results indicate changes in stream temperature are correlated with changes in air temperature, our results also capture the important, and often ignored, influence of hydrological processes on changes in stream temperature. Decreases in future snowcover will result in increased thermal sensitivity within regions that were previously buffered by the cooling effect of flow originating as snowmelt. Other hydrological components, such as precipitation, surface runoff, lateral soil flow, and groundwater, are negatively correlated to increases in stream temperature depending on the season and ecological province. At the ecological province scale, the largest increase in annual stream temperature was within the Mountain Snake ecological province, which is characterized by non-migratory coldwater fish species. Stream temperature changes varied seasonally with the largest projected stream temperature increases occurring during the spring and summer for all ecological provinces. Our results indicate that stream temperatures are driven by local processes and ultimately require a physically-explicit modeling approach to accurately characterize the

  19. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulation seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse in the 21st century of the thermohaline circulation is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  20. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulate seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse of the thermohaline circulation in the 21st century is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  1. Designing Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, P. C.; ORyan, C.

    2012-12-01

    In a time when sensationalism rules the online world, it is best to keep things short. The people of the online world are not passing back and forth lengthy articles, but rather brief glimpses of complex information. This is the target audience we attempt to educate. Our challenge is then to attack not only ignorance, but also apathy toward global climate change, while conforming to popular modes of learning. When communicating our scientific material, it was difficult to determine what level of information was appropriate for our audience, especially with complex subject matter. Our unconventional approach for communicating the carbon crisis as it applies to global climate change caters to these 'recreational learners'. Using story-telling devices acquired from Carolyne's biomedical art background coupled with Peter's extensive knowledge of carbon cycle and ecosystems science, we developed a dynamic series of illustrations that capture the attention of a callous audience. Adapting complex carbon cycle and climate science into comic-book-style animations creates a channel between artist, scientist, and the general public. Brief scenes of information accompanied by text provide a perfect platform for visual learners, as well as fresh portrayals of stale material for the jaded. In this way art transcends the barriers of the cerebral and the abstract, paving the road to understanding.;

  2. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    The absence of a global agreement on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions calls for adaptation to climate change. The associated paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change...... adaptation needed. Issues that must be addressed in case a strategic approach is not developed, as the building sector is continuously investing in measures to adapt to climate change as impacts emerge are described....

  3. Economic impacts of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Tol, Richard S.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change will probably have a limited impact on the economy and human welfare in the 21st century. The initial impacts of climate change may well be positive. In the long run, the negative impacts dominate the positive ones. Negative impacts will be substantially greater in poorer, hotter, and lower-lying countries. Poverty reduction complements greenhouse gas emissions reduction as a means to reduce climate change impacts. Climate change may affect the growth rate of the economy and ma...

  4. Climatic implications of ice microphysics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liou, K.N. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)

    1995-09-01

    Based on aircraft measurements of mid-latitude cirrus clouds, ice crystal size distribution and ice water content (IWC) are shown to be dependent on temperature. This dependence is also evident from the theoretical consideration of ice crystal growth. Using simple models of the diffusion and accretion growth of ice particles, the computed mean ice crystal size and IWC compare reasonably well with the measured mean values. The temperature dependence of ice crystal size and IWC has important climatic implications in that the temperature field perturbed by external radiative forcings, such as greenhouse warming, can alter the composition of ice crystal clouds. Through radiative transfer, ice microphysics can in turn affect the temperature field. Higher IWC would increase cloud solar albedo and infrared emissivity, while for a given IWC, larger crystals would reduce cloud albedo and emissivity. The competing effects produced by greenhouse temperature perturbations via ice micro-physics and radiation interactions and feedbacks are assessed by a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model that includes an advanced radiation parameterization program. 3 figs.

  5. Past climate changes and permafrost depth at the Lake El'gygytgyn site: implications from data and thermal modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mottaghy, D.; Schwamborn, G.; Rath, V.

    2012-07-01

    We present results of numerical simulations of the temperature field of the subsurface around and beneath the crater Lake El'gygytgyn in NE Russia, which is subject of an interdisciplinary drilling campaign within the International Continental Drilling Program (ICDP). This study focuses on determining the permafrost depth and the transition between talik and permafrost regimes, both, under steady-state and transient conditions of past climate changes. Thermal properties of the subsurface are deduced from measurements on three representative core samples taken from the quaternary sediments and the underlying impact rock. Further information is derived from the available geophysical logs and literature data. The temperature data from the lake borehole ICDP site 5011-1 down to 400 m depth below lake bottom are dominated by thermal perturbations related to the drilling process, and thus only give reliable values for the lowermost value in the borehole. Undisturbed temperature data recorded over more than two years in the 140 m deep land-based borehole ICDP site 5011-3 allow to determine the mean annual ground surface temperature (GST), as well as its history (GSTH) to a certain extent. Although the borehole's depth is by far not sufficient for a complete reconstruction of past temperatures back to the last glacial maximum (LGM), the temperature data and our modelling results show that there is still an influence of the LGM on the thermal regime, and thus on the permafrost depth. Whereas the latter result is obtained from the deeper part of the temperature profile, the rather strong curvature of the temperature data in shallower depths around 30 m can be explained by a comparatively large amplitude of the Little Ice Age (LIA), with a subsequently persistent cool period. Other mechanisms like varying porosity may also have an influence on the temperature profile, however, our modelling studies imply a major contribution from recent climate changes.

  6. Past climate changes and permafrost depth at the Lake El'gygytgyn site: implications from data and thermal modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Mottaghy

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available We present results of numerical simulations of the temperature field of the subsurface around and beneath the crater Lake El'gygytgyn in NE Russia, which is subject of an interdisciplinary drilling campaign within the International Continental Drilling Program (ICDP. This study focuses on determining the permafrost depth and the transition between talik and permafrost regimes, both, under steady-state and transient conditions of past climate changes. Thermal properties of the subsurface are deduced from measurements on three representative core samples taken from the quaternary sediments and the underlying impact rock. Further information is derived from the available geophysical logs and literature data. The temperature data from the lake borehole ICDP site 5011-1 down to 400 m depth below lake bottom are dominated by thermal perturbations related to the drilling process, and thus only give reliable values for the lowermost value in the borehole. Undisturbed temperature data recorded over more than two years in the 140 m deep land-based borehole ICDP site 5011-3 allow to determine the mean annual ground surface temperature (GST, as well as its history (GSTH to a certain extent. Although the borehole's depth is by far not sufficient for a complete reconstruction of past temperatures back to the last glacial maximum (LGM, the temperature data and our modelling results show that there is still an influence of the LGM on the thermal regime, and thus on the permafrost depth. Whereas the latter result is obtained from the deeper part of the temperature profile, the rather strong curvature of the temperature data in shallower depths around 30 m can be explained by a comparatively large amplitude of the Little Ice Age (LIA, with a subsequently persistent cool period. Other mechanisms like varying porosity may also have an influence on the temperature profile, however, our modelling studies imply a major contribution from recent climate changes.

  7. Climate and Humans as Amplifiers of Hydro-Ecologic Change: Science and Policy Implications for Intensively Managed Landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foufoula-Georgiou, E.; Czuba, J. A.; Belmont, P.; Wilcock, P. R.; Gran, K. B.; Kumar, P.

    2015-12-01

    Climatic trends and agricultural intensification in Midwestern U.S. landscapes has contributed to hydrologic regime shifts and a cascade of changes to water quality and river ecosystems. Informing management and policy to mitigate undesired consequences requires a careful scientific analysis that includes data-based inference and conceptual/physical modeling. It also calls for a systems approach that sees beyond a single stream to the whole watershed, favoring the adoption of minimal complexity rather than highly parameterized models for scenario evaluation and comparison. Minimal complexity models can focus on key dynamic processes of the system of interest, reducing problems of model structure bias and equifinality. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of climatic, hydrologic, and ecologic trends in the Minnesota River basin, a 45,000 km2 basin undergoing continuous agricultural intensification and suffering from declining water quality and aquatic biodiversity. We show that: (a) it is easy to arrive at an erroneous view of the system using traditional analyses and modeling tools; (b) even with a well-founded understanding of the key drivers and processes contributing to the problem, there are multiple pathways for minimizing/reversing environmental degradation; and (c) addressing the underlying driver of change (i.e., increased streamflows and reduced water storage due to agricultural drainage practices) by restoring a small amount of water storage in the landscape results in multiple non-linear improvements in downstream water quality. We argue that "optimization" between ecosystem services and economic considerations requires simple modeling frameworks, which include the most essential elements of the whole system and allow for evaluation of alternative management scenarios. Science-based approaches informing management and policy are urgent in this region calling for a new era of watershed management to new and accelerating stressors at the intersection

  8. Climate change, agriculture and poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Hertel, Thomas W.; Rosch, Stephanie D

    2010-01-01

    Although much has been written about climate change and poverty as distinct and complex problems, the link between them has received little attention. Understanding this link is vital for the formulation of effective policy responses to climate change. This paper focuses on agriculture as a primary means by which the impacts of climate change are transmitted to the poor, and as a sector at...

  9. Climatic change and impacts: a general introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    These proceedings are divided into six parts containing 29 technical papers. 1. An Overview of the Climatic System, 2. Past climate Changes, 3. Climate Processes and Climate Modelling, 4. Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change, 5. Climatic Impacts, 6. STUDENTS' PAPERS

  10. Climate change scenarios for Canada's national parks : a users manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A screening level impact assessment has shown that the implications of climate change for Canada's national parks are considerable. Climate change scenarios will be an important component in examining the potential climate change impacts and the implications of adaptation strategies. Most climate change scenarios are based on vulnerability, impact and adaptation research. This user's manual describes the development of 3 types of climate change scenarios including scenarios from global climate models (GCMs), bioclimate scenarios and daily scenarios for use by Parks Canada. The manual offers advice to first-time climate change scenario users in choosing and interpreting climate change, bioclimate and daily scenarios. It also addresses the theoretical and practical foundations of each climate scenario and shows how to access data regarding the various scenarios. Hands-on exercises are included as an interpretive aid. 20 refs., 4 tabs., 19 figs

  11. Storm surges and climate change implications for tidal marshes: Insight from the San Francisco Bay Estuary, California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Swanson, Kathleen; Takekawa, John Y.

    2013-01-01

    Tidal marshes are dynamic ecosystems, which are influenced by oceanic and freshwater processes and daily changes in sea level. Projected sea-level rise and changes in storm frequency and intensity will affect tidal marshes by altering suspended sediment supply, plant communities, and the inundation duration and depth of the marsh platform. The objective of this research was to evaluate if regional weather conditions resulting in low-pressure storms changed tidal conditions locally within three tidal marshes. We hypothesized that regional storms will increase sea level heights locally, resulting in increased inundation of the tidal marsh platform and plant communities. Using site-level measurements of elevation, plant communities, and water levels, we present results from two storm events in 2010 and 2011 from the San Francisco Bay Estuary (SFBE), California, USA. The January 2010 storm had the lowest recorded sea level pressure in the last 30 years for this region. During the storm episodes, the duration of tidal marsh inundation was 1.8 and 3.1 times greater than average for that time of year, respectively. At peak storm surges, over 65% in 2010 and 93% in 2011 of the plant community was under water. We also discuss the implications of these types of storms and projected sea-level rise on the structure and function of the tidal marshes and how that will impact the hydro-geomorphic processes and marsh biotic communities.

  12. Modelling of dripwater hydrology and hydrogeochemistry in a weakly karstified aquifer (Bath, UK): Implications for climate change studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairchild, Ian J.; Tuckwell, George W.; Baker, Andy; Tooth, Anna F.

    2006-04-01

    A better knowledge of dripwater hydrology in karst systems is needed to understand the palaeoclimate implications of temporal variations in Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca of calcareous cave deposits. Quantitative modelling of drip hydrology and hydrochemistry was undertaken at a disused limestone mine (Brown's Folly Mine) in SW England overlain by 15 m of poorly karstified Jurassic limestones, with sub-vertical fracturing enhanced by proximity to an escarpment. Discharge was monitored at 15 sites intermittently from the beginning of 1996, and every 10-20 days from later 1996 to early 1998. Samples for hydrochemical parameters (pH, alkalinity, cations, anions, fluorescence) were taken corresponding to a sub-set of these data and supplemented by bedrock and soil sampling, limited continuously logged discharge, and soil water observations. Three sites, covering the range of discharge (approximately 1 μL s -1 to 1 ml s -1 maximum discharge) and hydrochemical behaviours, were studied in more detail. A quantitative flow model was constructed, based on two parallel unit hydrographs: responsive and relatively unresponsive to discharge events, respectively. The linear response and conservative mixing assumptions of the model were tested with hydrogeochemical data. Dripwaters at many of sites are characterized by evidence of prior calcite precipitation in the flowpath above the mine, which in the higher discharging sites diminishes at high flow. Also at low flow rates, dripwaters may access seepage reservoirs enriched in Mg and/or Sr, dependent on the site. The discharge at all three sites can be approximated by the flow model, but in each case, hydrochemical data show violations of the model assumptions. All sites show evidence of non-conservative mixing, and there are temporal discontinuities in behaviour, which may be stimulated by airlocks generated at low flow. Enhanced Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca often do relate to low-flow conditions, but the relationships between climate and hydrogeochemical

  13. Apparent limitations in the ability of CMIP5 climate models to simulate recent multi-decadal change in surface temperature: implications for global temperature projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power, Scott; Delage, François; Wang, Guomin; Smith, Ian; Kociuba, Greg

    2016-09-01

    Observed surface temperature trends over the period 1998-2012/2014 have attracted a great deal of interest because of an apparent slowdown in the rate of global warming, and contrasts between climate model simulations and observations of such trends. Many studies have addressed the statistical significance of these relatively short-trends, whether they indicate a possible bias in the model values and the implications for global warming generally. Here we re-examine these issues, but as they relate to changes over much longer-term changes. We find that on multi-decadal time scales there is little evidence for any change in the observed global warming rate, but some evidence for a recent temporary slowdown in the warming rate in the Pacific. This multi-decadal slowdown can be partly explained by a cool phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and a short-term excess of La Niña events. We also analyse historical and projected changes in 38 CMIP climate models. All of the model simulations examined simulate multi-decadal warming in the Pacific over the past half-century that exceeds observed values. This difference cannot be fully explained by observed internal multi-decadal climate variability, even if allowance is made for an apparent tendency for models to underestimate internal multi-decadal variability in the Pacific. Models which simulate the greatest global warming over the past half-century also project warming that is among the highest of all models by the end of the twenty-first century, under both low and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Given that the same models are poorest in representing observed multi-decadal temperature change, confidence in the highest projections is reduced.

  14. Scenarios of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article provides an overview of current and prospected climate changes, their causes and implied threats, and of a possible route to keep the changes within a tolerable level. The global mean temperature has up to 2005 risen by almost 0.8 C deg., and the change expected by 2100 is as large as glacial-interglacial changes in the past, which were commonly spread out over 10 000 years. As is well known, the principle actor is man-made CO2, which, together with other anthropogenic gases, enhances the atmosphere's greenhouse effect. The only man-made cooling agent appears to be atmospheric aerosols. Atmospheric CO2 has now reached levels unprecedented during the past several million years. Principal threats are a greatly reduced biodiversity (species extinction), changes in the atmospheric precipitation pattern, more frequent weather extremes, and not the least, sea level rise. The expected precipitation pattern will enhance water scarcity in and around regions that suffer from water shortage already, affecting many countries. Sea level rise will act on a longer time scale. It is expected to amount to more than 50 cm by 2100, and over the coming centuries the potential rise is of the order of 10 m. A global-mean temperature increase of 2 C deg. is often quoted as a safe limit, beyond which irreversible effects must be expected. To achieve that limit, a major, rapid, and coordinated international effort will be needed. Up to the year 2050, the man-made CO2 releases must be reduced by at least 50%. This must be accompanied by a complete overhaul of the global energy supply toward depending increasingly on the Sun's supply of energy, both directly and in converted form, such as wind energy. Much of the information and insight available today has been generated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in particular its Fourth Assessment Report of 2007, which greatly advanced both public attention and political action. (author)

  15. Potential 21st century changes to the mammal fauna of Denmark - implications of climate change, land-use, and invasive species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fløjgaard, Camilla; Morueta-Holme, Naia; Skov, Flemming; Madsen, Aksel Bo; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2009-11-01

    The moderate temperature increase of 0.74 °C in the 20th century has caused latitudinal and altitudinal range shifts in many species including mammals. Therefore, given the more dramatic temperature increase predicted for the 21st century, we can therefore expect even stronger range shifts as well. However, European mammals are already faced with other anthropogenic pressures, notably habitat loss, pollution, overexploitation, and invasive species, and will have to face the combined challenge posed by climate change in a landscape highly influenced by human activities. As an example of the possible consequences of land use, invasive species, and climate change for the regional-scale mammal species composition, we here focus on the potential 21st century changes to the mammal fauna of Denmark. Supported by species distribution modelling, we present a discussion of the possible changes to the Danish mammal fauna: Which species are likely to become locally extinct? Which new species are most likely to immigrate? And, what is the potential threat from invasive species? We find that future climate change is likely to cause a general enrichment of the Danish mammal fauna by the potential immigration of seventeen new species. Only the northern birch mouse (Sicista betulina) is at risk of extinction from climate change predicted. The European native mammals are not anticipated to contribute to the invasive-species problem as they coexist with most Danish species in other parts of Europe. However, non-European invasive species are also likely to enter the Danish fauna and may negatively impact the native species.

  16. Potential 21st century changes to the mammal fauna of Denmark - implications of climate change, land-use, and invasive species

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Floejgaard, Camilla; Morueta-Holme, Naia; Svenning, Jens-Christian [Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, DK-8000 Aarhus C (Denmark); Skov, Flemming; Madsen, Aksel Bo, E-mail: camilla.flojgaard@biology.au.d [Department of Wildlife Ecology and Biodiversity, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Grenaavej 14, DK-8410 Roende (Denmark)

    2009-11-01

    The moderate temperature increase of 0.74 deg. C in the 20th century has caused latitudinal and altitudinal range shifts in many species including mammals. Therefore, given the more dramatic temperature increase predicted for the 21st century, we can therefore expect even stronger range shifts as well. However, European mammals are already faced with other anthropogenic pressures, notably habitat loss, pollution, overexploitation, and invasive species, and will have to face the combined challenge posed by climate change in a landscape highly influenced by human activities. As an example of the possible consequences of land use, invasive species, and climate change for the regional-scale mammal species composition, we here focus on the potential 21st century changes to the mammal fauna of Denmark. Supported by species distribution modelling, we present a discussion of the possible changes to the Danish mammal fauna: Which species are likely to become locally extinct? Which new species are most likely to immigrate? And, what is the potential threat from invasive species? We find that future climate change is likely to cause a general enrichment of the Danish mammal fauna by the potential immigration of seventeen new species. Only the northern birch mouse (Sicista betulina) is at risk of extinction from climate change predicted. The European native mammals are not anticipated to contribute to the invasive-species problem as they coexist with most Danish species in other parts of Europe. However, non-European invasive species are also likely to enter the Danish fauna and may negatively impact the native species.

  17. Potential 21st century changes to the mammal fauna of Denmark - implications of climate change, land-use, and invasive species

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The moderate temperature increase of 0.74 deg. C in the 20th century has caused latitudinal and altitudinal range shifts in many species including mammals. Therefore, given the more dramatic temperature increase predicted for the 21st century, we can therefore expect even stronger range shifts as well. However, European mammals are already faced with other anthropogenic pressures, notably habitat loss, pollution, overexploitation, and invasive species, and will have to face the combined challenge posed by climate change in a landscape highly influenced by human activities. As an example of the possible consequences of land use, invasive species, and climate change for the regional-scale mammal species composition, we here focus on the potential 21st century changes to the mammal fauna of Denmark. Supported by species distribution modelling, we present a discussion of the possible changes to the Danish mammal fauna: Which species are likely to become locally extinct? Which new species are most likely to immigrate? And, what is the potential threat from invasive species? We find that future climate change is likely to cause a general enrichment of the Danish mammal fauna by the potential immigration of seventeen new species. Only the northern birch mouse (Sicista betulina) is at risk of extinction from climate change predicted. The European native mammals are not anticipated to contribute to the invasive-species problem as they coexist with most Danish species in other parts of Europe. However, non-European invasive species are also likely to enter the Danish fauna and may negatively impact the native species.

  18. The climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper has been developed to show how the future of the climate of our planet could become. The factors that takes places in this possible change are also carefully explained. The human action over the environment is probably disturbing the atmospheric system. The processes that involves this perturbations are shown: pollution, fires in hugh regions such as Amazonia Central Australia, Central and East Africa and some others. Factors like these seems are destroying the ozone shell. We also explain the problems to be sure that the expectatives for the future are reliable. Finally, we propose some solutions for this situation. Special situations like nuclear winter or the desertization are also included. (Author)

  19. 1000 years of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, C.

    problems have been adequately solved although caution is warranted. A promising adjunct to tree rings is actual measurement of temperatures in boreholes. Inversion of such records gives low frequency temperatures that are potentially more accurate than any proxy- derived ones. All these records give a fairly consistent picture of at least one major warming and cooling extreme (Medieval Warming Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Many modeling efforts using direct solar forcing have been done. These typically employ proxy data (sunspot number and variations in Be-10 and C -14 calibrated by satellite observations) for changes in solar forcing, and give the same general picture-- that of a substantial warming 1,000 yrs ago (MWP) followed by cooling that was particularly marked in the late 17th and early 19th centuries (LIA). The resulting amplitude of temperature change between MWP and LIA agrees well with paleo-temperature reconstructions and suggests that solar forcing alone is inadequate to account for more than about half the 20th century warming (Lean et al 1995, Crowley and Lowry 2000). Since these quantitatively reproduce climate variations in the past 1000 years, the role of indirect solar forcing is inferred to be small but may be important (Lean and Rind 2001). Gerard Bond, Bernd Kromer, Juerg Beer, Raimund Muscheler, Michael N. Evans, William Showers, Sharon Hoffmann, Rusty Lotti-Bond, Irka Hajdas, and Georges Bonani, (2001) Persistent Solar Influence on North Atlantic Climate During the Holocene,Science 294: 2130-2136 Briffa and Osborne, (2002) Blowing Hot and Cold, Science 295, 2227-2228. Lean, J., Beer, J., and Bradley, R., (1995) Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: Implications for climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett.., 22, 3195-3198. Crowley ,T., (2000) Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years, Science,289, 270- 277. Lean and Rind, (2001), Earth's Response to a Variable Sun, Science, 292, 234-236.

  20. Quantifying seasonal volume of groundwater in high elevation meadows: Implications for complex aquifer geometry in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciruzzi, Dominick M.

    The hydrologic impacts of rising global temperatures are severe and imminent particularly in snow-dominated regions. In the western United States, high elevation meadows are among the ecosystems highly sensitive to climate change. High elevation meadows are groundwater dependent ecosystems and rely on seasonal snowpack melt in order to support ecologic function and baseflow to streams. This stream flow in turn supplies an estimated 2.6 million San Francisco residents with water. Once the snow melts and recharges the aquifer, groundwater supports vegetation separate from the surrounding hillslopes, which promotes important ecologic functions like flood regulation and nutrient cycling. Groundwater also supports baseflow to perennial rivers late into the summer months transferring this snowmelt to downstream ecologic and human communities. By 2100 snowpack accumulation in the Sierra Nevada is expected to decrease by ~40-90% due to near-surface temperature rise. Though precipitation intensity is not expected to change, a decrease in snowpack will change the timing and magnitude of groundwater recharge necessary to sustain high elevation meadows. An additional climate-driven shift and decrease in peak stream flow to early spring away from summer when demand is highest puts into question ecosystem survivability and water supply to downstream users. Here, a new quantitative framework is presented to lay the foundation for the widespread identification of vulnerabilities in high elevation meadows due to climate change. This research proposed and tested a new conceptual model for the volume of groundwater stored in high elevation meadows similar to that of a reservoir with active and dead storage. The seasonal fluctuations in active storage, which is defined as the volume of groundwater able to exchange between the aquifer, streams, and vegetation, are thought to be highly sensitive to aquifer parameters, such as bedrock geometry, meadow gradient, and hydraulic conductivity

  1. Past climate changes and permafrost depth at the Lake El'gygytgyn site: implications from data and thermal modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Mottaghy

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the temperature field observed in boreholes drilled as part of interdisciplinary scientific campaign targeting the El'gygytgyn Crater Lake in NE Russia. Temperature data are available from two sites: the lake borehole 5011-1 located near the center of the lake reaching 400 m depth, and the land borehole 5011-3 at the rim of the lake, with a depth of 140 m. Constraints on permafrost depth and past climate changes are derived from numerical simulation of the thermal regime associated with the lake-related talik structure. The thermal properties of the subsurface needed for these simulations are based on laboratory measurements of representative cores from the quaternary sediments and the underlying impact-affected rock, complemented by further information from geophysical logs and data from published literature. The temperature observations in the lake borehole 5011-1 are dominated by thermal perturbations related to the drilling process, and thus only give reliable values for the lowermost value in the borehole. Undisturbed temperature data recorded over more than two years are available in the 140 m deep land-based borehole 5011-3. The analysis of these observations allows determination of not only the recent mean annual ground surface temperature, but also the ground surface temperature history, though with large uncertainties. Although the depth of this borehole is by far too insufficient for a complete reconstruction of past temperatures back to the Last Glacial Maximum, it still affects the thermal regime, and thus permafrost depth. This effect is constrained by numerical modeling: assuming that the lake borehole observations are hardly influenced by the past changes in surface air temperature, an estimate of steady-state conditions is possible, leading to a meaningful value of 14 ± 5 K for the post-glacial warming. The strong curvature of the temperature data in shallower depths around 60 m can be explained by a

  2. Geopolitics of climate change: A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bošnjaković Branko

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper reviews the geopolitical elements of the emerging discourse on how to control, and cope with climate change. Two complementary approaches may be distinguished: the actor-related approach analyses the positioning of states and interest groups, which develop strategies on coping with climate change; the other approach addresses processes and problem areas (physical, economic, demographic… emerging in the geographic space as a consequence of, or linked to climate change. With failing mitigation policies and instruments, the urgency of adaptation to climate change is increasing. Assessment of regional consequences of climate change includes the perceptions and motivations of presumed losers or winners. New security implications related to climate change are emerging in the Arctic, South-East Asia, Africa and the Pacific. Energy supply security is a dominant factor in geopolitical considerations. The geopolitics of climate change is inextricably linked to many other issues of globalization. Significant shift of global power raises the discussion of ethical responsibility. Climate change is evolving as a testing ground for competitiveness and innovation potential of political and economic models in achieving sustainability.

  3. Ecosystem carbon stock influenced by plantation practice: implications for planting forests as a measure of climate change mitigation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengzhang Liao

    Full Text Available Uncertainties remain in the potential of forest plantations to sequestrate carbon (C. We synthesized 86 experimental studies with paired-site design, using a meta-analysis approach, to quantify the differences in ecosystem C pools between plantations and their corresponding adjacent primary and secondary forests (natural forests. Totaled ecosystem C stock in plant and soil pools was 284 Mg C ha(-1 in natural forests and decreased by 28% in plantations. In comparison with natural forests, plantations decreased aboveground net primary production, litterfall, and rate of soil respiration by 11, 34, and 32%, respectively. Fine root biomass, soil C concentration, and soil microbial C concentration decreased respectively by 66, 32, and 29% in plantations relative to natural forests. Soil available N, P and K concentrations were lower by 22, 20 and 26%, respectively, in plantations than in natural forests. The general pattern of decreased ecosystem C pools did not change between two different groups in relation to various factors: stand age ( or = 25 years, stand types (broadleaved vs. coniferous and deciduous vs. evergreen, tree species origin (native vs. exotic of plantations, land-use history (afforestation vs. reforestation and site preparation for plantations (unburnt vs. burnt, and study regions (tropic vs. temperate. The pattern also held true across geographic regions. Our findings argued against the replacement of natural forests by the plantations as a measure of climate change mitigation.

  4. Ecosystem carbon stock influenced by plantation practice: implications for planting forests as a measure of climate change mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Chengzhang; Luo, Yiqi; Fang, Changming; Li, Bo

    2010-01-01

    Uncertainties remain in the potential of forest plantations to sequestrate carbon (C). We synthesized 86 experimental studies with paired-site design, using a meta-analysis approach, to quantify the differences in ecosystem C pools between plantations and their corresponding adjacent primary and secondary forests (natural forests). Totaled ecosystem C stock in plant and soil pools was 284 Mg C ha(-1) in natural forests and decreased by 28% in plantations. In comparison with natural forests, plantations decreased aboveground net primary production, litterfall, and rate of soil respiration by 11, 34, and 32%, respectively. Fine root biomass, soil C concentration, and soil microbial C concentration decreased respectively by 66, 32, and 29% in plantations relative to natural forests. Soil available N, P and K concentrations were lower by 22, 20 and 26%, respectively, in plantations than in natural forests. The general pattern of decreased ecosystem C pools did not change between two different groups in relation to various factors: stand age ( or = 25 years), stand types (broadleaved vs. coniferous and deciduous vs. evergreen), tree species origin (native vs. exotic) of plantations, land-use history (afforestation vs. reforestation) and site preparation for plantations (unburnt vs. burnt), and study regions (tropic vs. temperate). The pattern also held true across geographic regions. Our findings argued against the replacement of natural forests by the plantations as a measure of climate change mitigation. PMID:20523733

  5. Viewpoint paper. Islander mobilities: any change from climate change?

    OpenAIRE

    Kelman, I.; Stojanov, R.; Khan, S; Gila, O. A.; Duží, B.; Vikhrov, D.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is stated as being likely to cause the forced movement of millions of people, especially from small island communities. Such statements are not always placed in wider and deeper understandings of mobility and non-mobility. Focusing on island communities, this paper assesses some of the implications inherent in mobility and non-mobility choices related to climate change in comparison to other factors and drivers. Culture and networks are examples of drivers demonstrating that it...

  6. Some like it hot: the influence and implications of climate change on coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei and coffee production in East Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliana Jaramillo

    Full Text Available The negative effects of climate change are already evident for many of the 25 million coffee farmers across the tropics and the 90 billion dollar (US coffee industry. The coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei, the most important pest of coffee worldwide, has already benefited from the temperature rise in East Africa: increased damage to coffee crops and expansion in its distribution range have been reported. In order to anticipate threats and prioritize management actions for H. hampei we present here, maps on future distributions of H. hampei in coffee producing areas of East Africa. Using the CLIMEX model we relate present-day insect distributions to current climate and then project the fitted climatic envelopes under future scenarios A2A and B2B (for HADCM3 model. In both scenarios, the situation with H. hampei is forecasted to worsen in the current Coffea arabica producing areas of Ethiopia, the Ugandan part of the Lake Victoria and Mt. Elgon regions, Mt. Kenya and the Kenyan side of Mt. Elgon, and most of Rwanda and Burundi. The calculated hypothetical number of generations per year of H. hampei is predicted to increase in all C. arabica-producing areas from five to ten. These outcomes will have serious implications for C. arabica production and livelihoods in East Africa. We suggest that the best way to adapt to a rise of temperatures in coffee plantations could be via the introduction of shade trees in sun grown plantations. The aims of this study are to fill knowledge gaps existing in the coffee industry, and to draft an outline for the development of an adaptation strategy package for climate change on coffee production. An abstract in Spanish is provided as Abstract S1.

  7. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2013-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  8. NPOESS, Essential Climates Variables and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsythe-Newell, S. P.; Bates, J. J.; Barkstrom, B. R.; Privette, J. L.; Kearns, E. J.

    2008-12-01

    Advancement in understanding, predicting and mitigating against climate change implies collaboration, close monitoring of Essential Climate Variable (ECV)s through development of Climate Data Record (CDR)s and effective action with specific thematic focus on human and environmental impacts. Towards this end, NCDC's Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) Program Office developed Climate Long-term Information and Observation system (CLIO) for satellite data identification, characterization and use interrogation. This "proof-of-concept" online tool provides the ability to visualize global CDR information gaps and overlaps with options to temporally zoom-in from satellite instruments to climate products, data sets, data set versions and files. CLIO provides an intuitive one-stop web site that displays past, current and planned launches of environmental satellites in conjunction with associated imagery and detailed information. This tool is also capable of accepting and displaying Web-based input from Subject Matter Expert (SME)s providing a global to sub-regional scale perspective of all ECV's and their impacts upon climate studies. SME's can access and interact with temporal data from the past and present, or for future planning of products, datasets/dataset versions, instruments, platforms and networks. CLIO offers quantifiable prioritization of ECV/CDR impacts that effectively deal with climate change issues, their associated impacts upon climate, and this offers an intuitively objective collaboration and consensus building tool. NCDC's latest tool empowers decision makers and the scientific community to rapidly identify weaknesses and strengths in climate change monitoring strategies and significantly enhances climate change collaboration and awareness.

  9. Mapping Vulnerability to Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Heltberg, Rasmus; Bonch-Osmolovskiy, Misha

    2011-01-01

    This paper develops a methodology for regional disaggregated estimation and mapping of the areas that are ex-ante the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and variability and applies it to Tajikistan, a mountainous country highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The authors construct the vulnerability index as a function of exposure to climate variability and natura...

  10. Effects of spatial pattern of green space on land surface temperature: implications for sustainable urban planning and climate change adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maimaitiyiming, M.; Ghulam, A.

    2013-12-01

    The urban heat island (UHI) refers to the phenomenon of higher atmospheric and surface temperatures occurring in urban areas than in the surrounding rural areas. Numerous studies have shown that increased percent cover of green space (PLAND) can significantly decrease land surface temperatures (LST). Fewer studies, however, have investigated the effects of configuration of green space on LST. This paper aims at to fill this gap using oasis city Aksu in northwestern China as a case study. PLAND along with two configuration metrics are used to measure the composition and configuration of green space. The metrics are calculated by moving window method based on a green space map derived from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery, and LST data are retrieved from Landsat TM thermal band. Normalized mutual information measure is employed to investigate the relationship between LST and the spatial pattern of green space. The results show that while the PLAND is the most important variable that elicits LST dynamics, spatial configuration of green space also has significant effect on LST. In addition, the variance of LST is largely explained by both composition and configuration of green space. Results from this study can expand our understanding of the relationship between LST and vegetation, and provide insights for sustainable urban planning and management under changing climate.

  11. Poleward expansion of the white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus under climate change: implications for the spread of lyme disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilie Roy-Dufresne

    Full Text Available The white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus is an important reservoir host for Borrelia burgdorferi, the pathogen responsible for Lyme disease, and its distribution is expanding northward. We used an Ecological Niche Factor Analysis to identify the climatic factors associated with the distribution shift of the white-footed mouse over the last 30 years at the northern edge of its range, and modeled its current and potential future (2050 distributions using the platform BIOMOD. A mild and shorter winter is favouring the northern expansion of the white-footed mouse in Québec. With more favorable winter conditions projected by 2050, the distribution range of the white-footed mouse is expected to expand further northward by 3° latitude. We also show that today in southern Québec, the occurrence of B. burgdorferi is associated with high probability of presence of the white-footed mouse. Changes in the distribution of the white-footed mouse will likely alter the geographical range of B. burgdorferi and impact the public health in northern regions that have yet to be exposed to Lyme disease.

  12. Changing heathlands in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ransijn, Johannes

    Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures are rising and precipitation regimes are changing at global scale. How ecosystem will be affected by global climatic change is dependent on the responses of plants and plant communities. This thesis focuses on how climate change affects heathland......) a study on the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2-concentration, warming and drought on the photosynthetic capacity and phenology of C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in an outdoor climate change experiment on a grassy heathland in Denmark; 4) a study on climate change impacts on the competitive interactions...... between C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in the same climate change experiment and 5) a study where we compared the responses of shrubland plant communities to experimental warming and recurrent experimental droughts in seven climate change experiments across Europe. Heathland vegetation dynamics are slow...

  13. Anthropogenic Climate Change and Allergic Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hueiwang Anna Jeng

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to have an impact on various aspects of health, including mucosal areas involved in allergic inflammatory disorders that include asthma, allergic rhinitis, allergic conjunctivitis and anaphylaxis. The evidence that links climate change to the exacerbation and the development of allergic disease is increasing and appears to be linked to changes in pollen seasons (duration, onset and intensity and changes in allergen content of plants and their pollen as it relates to increased sensitization, allergenicity and exacerbations of allergic airway disease. This has significant implications for air quality and for the global food supply.

  14. Climate Change and Poverty Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Simon

    2011-08-15

    Climate change will make it increasingly difficult to achieve and sustain development goals. This is largely because climate effects on poverty remain poorly understood, and poverty reduction strategies do not adequately support climate resilience. Ensuring effective development in the face of climate change requires action on six fronts: investing in a stronger climate and poverty evidence base; applying the learning about development effectiveness to how we address adaptation needs; supporting nationally derived, integrated policies and programmes; including the climate-vulnerable poor in developing strategies; and identifying how mitigation strategies can also reduce poverty and enable adaptation.

  15. Climate change and human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warren, John A; Berner, James E; Curtis, Tine

    2005-01-01

    In northern regions, climate change can include changes in precipitation magnitude and frequency, reductions in sea ice extent and thickness, and climate warming and cooling. These changes can increase the frequency and severity of storms, flooding, or erosion; other changes may include drought o...

  16. Climate changes and biodiversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As some people forecast an average temperature increase between 1 and 3.5 degrees by the end of the century, with higher increases under high latitudes (it could reach 8 degrees in some regions of Canada), other changes will occur: precipitations, sea level rise, reductions in polar ice, extreme climatic events, glacier melting, and so on. The author discusses how these changes will impact biodiversity as they will threat habitat and living conditions of many species. Some studies assess a loss of 15 to 37 per cent of biodiversity by 2050. Moreover, physiology is influenced by temperature: for some species, higher temperatures favour the development of female embryos, or the increase of their population, or may result in an evolution of their reproduction strategy. Life rhythm will also change, for plants as well as for animals. Species will keep on changing their distribution area, but some others will not be able to and are therefore threatened. Finally, as the evolutions concern their vectors, some diseases will spread in new regions

  17. Climate change, wine, and conservation

    OpenAIRE

    Hannah, L.; Roehrdanz, PR; Ikegami, M; Shepard, AV; Shaw; Tabor, G; Zhi, L; Marquet, PA; Hijmans, RJ

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticul...

  18. Climate change and catchment hydrology

    OpenAIRE

    Murphy, Conor

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to alter catchment hydrology through changes in extremes of flooding and drought. River catchments are complex, dynamic systems and it is important to develop our understanding of how these systems are likely to respond to changes in climate. Work is ongoing in using EC-Earth simulations to further our understanding of how climate change will affect catchment hydrology and flood risk. In Ireland, the importance of this task is emphasised ...

  19. Application of Ecosystem Models to Assess Environmental Drivers of Mosquito Abundance and Virus Transmission Risk and Associated Public Health Implications of Climate and Land Use Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melton, F.; Barker, C.; Park, B.; Reisen, W.; Michaelis, A.; Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Milesi, C.; Hiatt, S.; Nemani, R.

    2008-12-01

    The NASA Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) is a modeling framework that integrates satellite observations, meteorological observations, and ancillary data to support monitoring and modeling of ecosystem and land surface conditions in near real-time. TOPS provides spatially continuous gridded estimates of a suite of measurements describing environmental conditions, and these data products are currently being applied to support the development of new models capable of forecasting estimated mosquito abundance and transmission risk for mosquito-borne diseases such as West Nile virus. We present results from the modeling analyses, describe their incorporation into the California Vectorborne Disease Surveillance System, and describe possible implications of projected climate and land use change for patterns in mosquito abundance and transmission risk for West Nile virus in California.

  20. Agro-ecosystem and socio-economic role of homegarden agroforestry in Jabithenan District, North-Western Ethiopia: implication for climate change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linger, Ewuketu

    2014-01-01

    Homegarden agroforestry is believed to be more diverse and provide multiple services for household than other monocropping system and this is due to the combination of crops, trees and livestock. The aim of this study was to assess socio-economic and agro-ecological role of homegardens in Jabithenan district, North-western Ethiopia. Two sites purposively and two villages randomly from each site were selected. Totally 96 households; in which 48 from homegarden agroforestry user and 48 from non-tree based garden user were selected for this study. Socio-economic data and potential economic and agro-ecosystem role of homegarden agroforestry over non-tree based garden were collected by using semi-structured and structured questionnaires to the households. Homegarden agroforestry significantly (P agroforestry practice provides good socio-economical and agro-ecological service for farmers which have a higher implication for climate change adaptation than non-tree based garden.

  1. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

    OpenAIRE

    Thornton, Philip K.; Polly J Ericksen; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J.

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food syst...

  2. Climate change and marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Anthony J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Brander, Keith;

    2012-01-01

    A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change...... ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC......) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change...

  3. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.M. CORNEA

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change impacts on water resources – The most recent scientific assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC [6] concludes that, since the late 19th century, anthropogenic induced emissions of greenhouse gases have contributed to an increase in global surface temperatures of about 0.3 to 0.6o C. Based on the IPCC’s scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols a further increase of 2o C is expected by the year 2100. Plants, animals, natural and managed ecosystems, and human settlements are susceptible to variations in the storage, fluxes, and quality of water and sensitive to climate change. From urban and agricultural water supplies to flood management and aquatic ecosystem protection, global warming is affecting all aspects of water resource management. Rising temperatures, loss of snowpack, escalating size and frequency of flood events, and rising sea levels are just some of the impacts of climate change that have broad implications for the management of water resources. With robust scientific evidence showing that human-induced climate change is occurring, it is critical to understand how water quantity and quality might be affected. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the environmental risks caused by climate anomalies on water resources, to examine the negative impacts of a greenhouse warming on the supply and demand for water and the resulting socio-economic implications.

  4. Philosophy of climate science part I: observing climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Frigg, Roman; Thompson, Erica; Werndl, Charlotte

    2015-01-01

    This is the first of three parts of an introduction to the philosophy of climate science. In this first part about observing climate change, the topics of definitions of climate and climate change, data sets and data models, detection of climate change, and attribution of climate change will be discussed.

  5. Climate change policy position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) is a firm believer in the need to take action to mitigate the risks associated with climate change, and that clear government policy is called for. The principles of sustainable development must guide this policy development effort. The initiatives required to address greenhouse gas emissions over both the short and long term must be carefully considered, and it is up to industries to ensure their production efficiency and emission intensity. Promoting improved performance of industries in Canada and developing technology that can be deployed internationally for larger global effects represents Canada's best contribution to progress on greenhouse gas emissions. The increase in energy demand along with increases in population and economic growth have contributed to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions despite improved energy efficiency in industry. Significant damage to the economy will result if Canada is to meet its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol, forcing the country to buy large quantities of foreign credits instead of using those funds for increased research and development. CAPP indicated that an effective plan must be: balanced, equitable, responsible, competitive, focused on technology and innovation, and based on agreements on sectoral plans. Each of these principles were discussed, followed by the fundamentals of approach for upstream oil and gas. The framework for climate change policy was described as well as the elements of a sector plan. CAPP wants to work with all levels of government on an appropriate plan for Canada, that considers our unique circumstances. Canada can play a significant role on the international stage by properly implementing the policy position proposed by the CAPP without unnecessary risks to the economy. refs

  6. A review of scientifc linkages and interactions between climate change and air quality, with implications for air quality management in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tirusha Thambiran

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In recent years there has been considerable advancement in our scientifc understanding of the linkages and interactions between climate change and air quality. A warmer, evolving climate is likely to have severe consequences for air quality due to impacts on pollution sources and meteorology. Climate-induced changes to sources of tropospheric ozone precursor gases and to atmospheric circulation are likely to lead to changes in both the concentration and dispersion of near-surface ozone that could act to offset improvements in air quality. The control of air pollutants through air quality management is also likely to impact on climate change, with reductions in ozone, particulate matter and sulphur dioxide being of particular interest. The improved understanding of the relationship between air quality and climate change provides a scientific basis for policy interventions. After a review of the scientific linkages, the potential to include climate change considerations in air quality management planning processes in South Africa was examined.

  7. Preparing for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holdgate, M

    1989-01-01

    There is a distinct probability that humankind is changing the climate and at the same time raising the sea level of the world. The most plausible projections we have now suggest a rise in mean world temperature of between 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2030--just 40 years hence. This is a bigger change in a smaller period than we know of in the experience of the earth's ecosystems and human societies. It implies that by 2030 the earth will be warmer than at any time in the past 120,000 years. In the same period, we are likely to see a rise of 15-30 centimeters in sea level, partly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and partly to the expansion of the warmer seas. This may not seem much--but it comes on top of the 12-centimeter rise in the past century and we should recall that over 1/2 the world's population lives in zones on or near coasts. A quarter meter rise in sea level could have drastic consequences for countries like the Maldives or the Netherlands, where much of the land lies below the 2-meter contour. The cause of climate change is known as the 'greenhouse effect'. Greenhouse glass has the property that it is transparent to radiation coming in from the sun, but holds back radiation to space from the warmed surfaces inside the greenhouse. Certain gases affect the atmosphere in the same way. There are 5 'greenhouse gases' and we have been roofing ourselves with them all: carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25% above preindustrial levels and are likely to double within a century, due to tropical forest clearance and especially to the burning of increasing quantities of coal and other fossil fuels; methane concentrations are now twice their preindustrial levels as a result of releases from agriculture; nitrous oxide has increased due to land clearance for agriculture, use of fertilizers, and fossil fuel combustion; ozone levels near the earth's surface have increased due mainly to pollution from motor vehicles; and

  8. Preparing for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holdgate, M

    1989-01-01

    There is a distinct probability that humankind is changing the climate and at the same time raising the sea level of the world. The most plausible projections we have now suggest a rise in mean world temperature of between 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2030--just 40 years hence. This is a bigger change in a smaller period than we know of in the experience of the earth's ecosystems and human societies. It implies that by 2030 the earth will be warmer than at any time in the past 120,000 years. In the same period, we are likely to see a rise of 15-30 centimeters in sea level, partly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and partly to the expansion of the warmer seas. This may not seem much--but it comes on top of the 12-centimeter rise in the past century and we should recall that over 1/2 the world's population lives in zones on or near coasts. A quarter meter rise in sea level could have drastic consequences for countries like the Maldives or the Netherlands, where much of the land lies below the 2-meter contour. The cause of climate change is known as the 'greenhouse effect'. Greenhouse glass has the property that it is transparent to radiation coming in from the sun, but holds back radiation to space from the warmed surfaces inside the greenhouse. Certain gases affect the atmosphere in the same way. There are 5 'greenhouse gases' and we have been roofing ourselves with them all: carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25% above preindustrial levels and are likely to double within a century, due to tropical forest clearance and especially to the burning of increasing quantities of coal and other fossil fuels; methane concentrations are now twice their preindustrial levels as a result of releases from agriculture; nitrous oxide has increased due to land clearance for agriculture, use of fertilizers, and fossil fuel combustion; ozone levels near the earth's surface have increased due mainly to pollution from motor vehicles; and

  9. How does climate change cause extinction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahill, Abigail E; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Fisher-Reid, M Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J; Ryu, Hae Yeong; Sbeglia, Gena C; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J

    2013-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.

  10. Climate Change Mitigation A Balanced Approach to Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a fresh and innovative perspective on climate change policy. By emphasizing the multiple facets of climate policy, from mitigation to adaptation, from technological innovation and diffusion to governance issues, it contains a comprehensive overview of the economic and policy dimensions of the climate problem. The keyword of the book is balance. The book clarifies that climate change cannot be controlled by sacrificing economic growth and many other urgent global issues. At the same time, action to control climate change cannot be delayed, even though gradually implemented. Therefore, on the one hand climate policy becomes pervasive and affects all dimensions of international policy. On the other hand, climate policy cannot be too ambitious: a balanced approach between mitigation and adaptation, between economic growth and resource management, between short term development efforts and long term innovation investments, should be adopted. I recommend its reading. Carlo Carraro, President, Ca�...

  11. Conflict in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carleton, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, M.

    2016-05-01

    A growing body of research illuminates the role that changes in climate have had on violent conflict and social instability in the recent past. Across a diversity of contexts, high temperatures and irregular rainfall have been causally linked to a range of conflict outcomes. These findings can be paired with climate model output to generate projections of the impact future climate change may have on conflicts such as crime and civil war. However, there are large degrees of uncertainty in such projections, arising from (i) the statistical uncertainty involved in regression analysis, (ii) divergent climate model predictions, and (iii) the unknown ability of human societies to adapt to future climate change. In this article, we review the empirical evidence of the climate-conflict relationship, provide insight into the likely extent and feasibility of adaptation to climate change as it pertains to human conflict, and discuss new methods that can be used to provide projections that capture these three sources of uncertainty.

  12. Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in the South-East Atlantic: Knowledge Gaps, Planned Observations to Address Them, and Implications for Global Climate Change Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redemann, Jens; Wood, R.; Zuidema, P.; Haywood, J.; Luna, B.; Abel, S.

    2015-01-01

    Southern Africa produces almost a third of the Earth's biomass burning (BB) aerosol particles, yet the fate of these particles and their influence on regional and global climate is poorly understood. Particles lofted into the mid-troposphere are transported westward over the South-East (SE) Atlantic, home to one of the three permanent subtropical Stratocumulus (Sc) cloud decks in the world. The stratocumulus "climate radiators" are critical to the regional and global climate system. They interact with dense layers of BB aerosols that initially overlay the cloud deck, but later subside and are mixed into the clouds. These interactions include adjustments to aerosol-induced solar heating and microphysical effects. As emphasized in the latest IPCC report, the global representation of these aerosol-cloud interaction processes in climate models is one of the largest uncertainty in estimates of future climate. Hence, new observations over the SE Atlantic have significant implications for global climate change scenarios. We discuss the current knowledge of aerosol and cloud property distributions based on satellite observations and sparse suborbital sampling, and describe planned field campaigns in the region. Specifically, we describe the scientific objectives and implementation of the following four synergistic, international research activities aimed at providing a process-level understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions over the SE Atlantic: 1) ORACLES (Observations of Aerosols above Clouds and their interactions), a five-year investigation between 2015 and 2019 with three Intensive Observation Periods (IOP), recently funded by the NASA Earth-Venture Suborbital Program, 2) CLARIFY-2016 (Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation Interactions and Forcing: Year 2016), a comprehensive observational and modeling programme funded by the UK's Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), and supported by the UK Met Office. 3) LASIC (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds), a funded

  13. Integrating components of the earth system to model global climate changes: implications for the simulation of the climate of the next million years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The climate system is complex because it is made up of several components (atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, continental surface, ice sheets), each of which has its own response time. The paleo-climate record provides ample evidence that these components interact nonlinearly with each other and also with global biogeochemical cycles, which drive greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere. Forecasting the evolution of future climate is therefore an extremely complex problem. In addition, since the nineteenth century, human activities are releasing great quantities of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, CFC, etc.) into the atmosphere. As a consequence, the atmospheric content of these gases has tremendously increased. As they have a strong greenhouse effect, their concentration is now large enough to perturb the natural evolution of the earth's climate. In this paper, we shall review the strategy which has been used to develop and validate tools that would allow to simulate the future long-term behaviour of the Earth's climate. This strategy rests on two complementary approaches: developing numerical models of the climate system and validating them by comparing their output with present-day meteorological data and paleo-climatic reconstructions. We shall then evaluate the methods available to simulate climate at the regional scale and the major uncertainties that must be solved to reasonable estimate the long-term evolution of a region, which would receive a geological repository for nuclear wastes. (author)

  14. Urban Growth and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Kahn, Matthew E.

    2008-01-01

    Between 1950 and 2030, the share of the world's population that lives in cities is predicted to grow from 30% to 60%. This urbanization has consequences for the likelihood of climate change and for the social costs that climate change will impose on the world's quality of life. This paper examines how urbanization affects greenhouse gas production, and it studies how urbanites in the developed and developing world will adapt to the challenges posed by climate change.

  15. Global warming and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A panel discussion was held to discuss climate change. Six panelists made presentations that summarized ozone depletion and climate change, discussed global responses, argued against the conventional scientific and policy dogmas concerning climate change, examined the effects of ultraviolet radiation on phytoplankton, examined the effects of carbon taxes on Canadian industry and its emissions, and examined the political and strategic aspects of global warming. A question session followed the presentations. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the six presentations

  16. Changes in Allometric Attributes and Biomass of Forests and Woodlands across an Altitudinal and Rainfall Gradient: What Are the Implications of Increasing Seasonality due to Anthropogenic Climate Change?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John T. Hunter

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Canonical correspondence analysis and linear regressions were used to relate height, diameter, and dispersion measurements of 36,380 stems from 197 species recorded in 2,341 plots against both climatic and landscape variables. Above ground biomass increased in wetter and cooler locations that ameliorate the seasonal rainfall deficits. Taller and greater diameter trees with lower wood densities occur at higher altitudes. Differences between locations are based on a change in the composition of species rather than a change in the allometric properties within a species. The results support the hydraulic limitation and species packing hypotheses. These interrelationships may be affected by the interactions of fire frequency and drought which are a common feature of much of the study area. Under current climate change scenarios it is likely that there will be a reduction in above ground biomass, the number of stems per hectare, average height, average diameter, and basal area due to increasing seasonality of rainfall, temperatures, and the intensity and frequency of fires. The largest of trees are likely to be removed early due to their inability to cope with increased drought stress. The results suggest a marked reduction in carbon storage will occur across the study region in eastern Australia.

  17. Adapting agriculture to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Howden, S.M.; Soussana, J.F.; Tubiello, F.N.; Chhetri, N.; Dunlop, M.; Meinke, H.B.

    2007-01-01

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of exi

  18. Predicting the effects of climate change on trophic status of three morphologically varying lakes: Implications for lake restoration and management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trolle, Dennis; Hamilton, David P.; Pilditch, Conrad A.;

    2011-01-01

    To quantify the effects of a future climate on three morphologically different lakes that varied in trophic status from oligo-mesotrophic to highly eutrophic, we applied the one-dimensional lake ecosystem model DYRESM-CAEDYM to oligo-mesotrophic Lake Okareka, eutrophic Lake Rotoehu, both in the t......To quantify the effects of a future climate on three morphologically different lakes that varied in trophic status from oligo-mesotrophic to highly eutrophic, we applied the one-dimensional lake ecosystem model DYRESM-CAEDYM to oligo-mesotrophic Lake Okareka, eutrophic Lake Rotoehu, both....... Therefore, future climate effects should be taken into account in the long-term planning and implementation of lake management as strategies may need to be refined and adapted to preserve or improve the present-day lake water quality....

  19. Climate change - a natural hazard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kininmonth, William

    2003-07-01

    The impacts of weather and climate extremes (floods, storms, drought, etc) have historically set back development and will continue to do so into the future, especially in developing countries. It is essential to understand how future climate change will be manifest as weather and climate extremes in order to implement policies of sustainable development. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate that natural processes have caused the climate to change and it is unlikely that human influences will dominate the natural processes. Any suggestion that implementation of the Kyoto Protocol will avoid future infrastructure damage, environmental degradation and loss of life from weather and climate extremes is a grand delusion. (Author)

  20. An Econometric Analysis of U.S. Crop Yield and Cropland Acreage: Implications for the Impact of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Huang, Haixiao; Khanna, Madhu

    2010-01-01

    A SIGNIFICANTLY REVISED/UPDATED AND EDITED VERSION OF THIS PAPER WAS PUBLISHED AS: Citation: Miao, Ruiqing, Madhu Khanna and Haixiao Huang. “Responsiveness of Crop Yield and Acreage to Prices and Climate.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics (2015) doi: 10.1093/ajae/aav025 Abstract: We investigate the effect of crop price and climate variables on rainfed corn and soybean yields and acreage in the United States using a large panel dataset for the 1977–2007 period. Instrumental variables...

  1. Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate

  2. Climate Change, farm level adaption measures and Impacts on Crop productivity and market participation: Implications for sustainable synergy between African and European Agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Olarinde, Luke O.; Adepoju, Adebusola A.; Jabaru, Muritala O.

    2014-01-01

    It is widely known that climate change and agriculture are interrelated process, both of which take place on a global scale. In effect, crop and animal farming, fisheries, forestry, with the resultant access to food and fibre in many continents and regions of the world are projected to be severely compromised by climate variability and change. Several strategies aimed at reducing climate variability induced hazards abound. These include cultural and conventional food and farming systems to cl...

  3. Climate Change, Sea-Level Rise and Implications for Coastal and Estuarine Shoreline Management with Particular Reference to the Ecology of Intertidal Benthic Macrofauna in NW Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toyonobu Fujii

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In many European estuaries, extensive areas of intertidal habitats consist of bare mudflats and sandflats that harbour a very high abundance and biomass of macrobenthic invertebrates. The high stocks of macrobenthos in turn provide important food sources for the higher trophic levels such as fish and shorebirds. Climate change and associated sea-level rise will have potential to cause changes in coastal and estuarine physical properties in a number of ways and thereby influence the ecology of estuarine dependent organisms. Although the mechanisms involved in biological responses resulting from such environmental changes are complex, the ecological effects are likely to be significant for the estuarine benthic macrofauna and hence the consumers they support. This paper reviews the utilisation patterns of estuarine intertidal habitats by shorebirds, fish and crustaceans, as well as factors affecting the distribution, abundance and biomass of estuarine macrobenthos that is known to be important food source for these estuarine predators. This study also provides simple conceptual models of the likely impacts of sea-level rise on the physical and biological elements of estuarine intertidal habitats, and implications of these results are discussed in the context of sustainable long term flood and coastal management in estuarine environments.

  4. Lay representations on climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Cabecinhas, Rosa; Lázaro, Alexandra; Carvalho, Anabela

    2006-01-01

    Lay representations on climate change were mapped via the free-word association method in two pilot studies. Participants were asked to generate words associated to “the big problems faced by humankind nowadays” (1st study) and to “climate change” (2nd study). Climate change was not spontaneously evoked by the participants in the first study: pollution was among the top 10 problems, but references to other environmental issues were very low. In the second study, climate change was consid...

  5. Schneider lecture: From climate change impacts to climate change risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, C. B.

    2014-12-01

    Steve Schneider was a strong proponent of considering the entire range of possible climate-change outcomes. He wrote and spoke frequently about the importance of low probability/high consequence outcomes as well as most likely outcomes. He worked tirelessly on communicating the risks from overlapping stressors. Technical and conceptual issues have made it difficult for Steve's vision to reach maturity in mainstream climate-change research, but the picture is changing rapidly. The concept of climate-change risk, considering both probability and consequence, is central to the recently completed IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and the concept frames much of the discussion about future research agendas. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks is important for five core reasons. First, conceptualizing the issue as being about probabilities builds a bridge between current climate variability and future climate change. Second, a formulation based on risks highlights the fact that climate impacts occur primarily in extremes. For historical variability and future impacts, the real concern is the conditions under which things break and systems fail, namely, in the extremes. Third, framing the challenge as one of managing risks puts a strong emphasis on exploring the full range of possible outcomes, including low-probability, high/consequence outcomes. Fourth, explaining climate change as a problem in managing risks links climate change to a wide range of sophisticated risk management tools and strategies that underpin much of modern society. Fifth, the concept of climate change as a challenge in managing risks helps cement the understanding that climate change is a threat multiplier, adding new dimensions and complexity to existing and emerging problems. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks creates an important but difficult agenda for research. The emphasis needs to shift from most likely outcomes to most risky outcomes, considering the full

  6. Climate and Dengue Transmission: Evidence and Implications

    OpenAIRE

    Morin, Cory W.; Comrie, Andrew C.; Ernst, Kacey

    2013-01-01

    Background: Climate influences dengue ecology by affecting vector dynamics, agent development, and mosquito/human interactions. Although these relationships are known, the impact climate change will have on transmission is unclear. Climate-driven statistical and process-based models are being used to refine our knowledge of these relationships and predict the effects of projected climate change on dengue fever occurrence, but results have been inconsistent. Objective: We sought to identify ma...

  7. The International Climate Change Regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamin, Farhana; Depledge, Joanna

    2005-01-01

    Aimed at the increasing number of policy-makers, stakeholders, researchers, and other professionals working on climate change, this volume presents a detailed description and analysis of the international regime established in 1992 to combat the threat of global climate change. It provides a comprehensive accessible guide to a high-profile area of international law and politics, covering not only the obligations and rights of countries, but ongoing climate negotiations as well.

  8. Ground water and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Taylor, Richard G; Scanlon, Bridget; Döll, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F P

    2013-01-01

    As the world’s largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the...

  9. Climate variability and change

    CERN Document Server

    Grassl, H

    1998-01-01

    Many factors influence climate. The present knowledge concerning the climate relevance of earth orbital parameters, solar luminosity, volcanoes, internal interactions, and human activities will be reported as well as the vulnerability of emission scenarios for given stabilization goals for greenhouse gas concentrations and the main points of the Kyoto Protocol

  10. Changes in dissolved organic material determine exposure of stream benthic communities to UV-B radiation and heavy metals: Implications for climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clements, W.H.; Brooks, M.L.; Kashian, D.R.; Zuellig, R.E.

    2008-01-01

    Changes in regional climate in the Rocky Mountains over the next 100 years are expected to have significant effects on biogeochemical cycles and hydrological processes. In particular, decreased discharge and lower stream depth during summer when ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is the highest combined with greater photo-oxidation of dissolved organic materials (DOM) will significantly increase exposure of benthic communities to UVR. Communities in many Rocky Mountain streams are simultaneously exposed to elevated metals from abandoned mines, the toxicity and bioavailability of which are also determined by DOM. We integrated field surveys of 19 streams (21 sites) along a gradient of metal contamination with microcosm and field experiments conducted in Colorado, USA, and New Zealand to investigate the influence of DOM on bioavailability of heavy metals and exposure of benthic communities to UVR. Spatial and seasonal variation in DOM were closely related to stream discharge and significantly influenced heavy metal uptake in benthic organisms. Qualitative and quantitative changes in DOM resulting from exposure to sunlight increased UV-B (290-320nm) penetration and toxicity of heavy metals. Results of microcosm experiments showed that benthic communities from a metal-polluted stream were tolerant of metals, but were more sensitive to UV-B than communities from a reference stream. We speculate that the greater sensitivity of these communities to UV-B resulted from costs associated with metal tolerance. Exclusion of UVR from 12 separate Colorado streams and from outdoor stream microcosms in New Zealand increased the abundance of benthic organisms (mayflies, stoneflies, and caddisflies) by 18% and 54%, respectively. Our findings demonstrate the importance of considering changes in regional climate and UV-B exposure when assessing the effects of local anthropogenic stressors. ?? Journal compilation ?? 2008 Blackwell Publishing.

  11. Ground Water and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; MacDonald, Alan; Fan, Ying; Maxwell, Reed M.; Yechieli, Yossi; Gurdak, Jason J.; Allen, Diana M.; Shamsudduha, Mohammad; Hiscock, Kevin; Yeh, Pat J. -F; Holman, Ian; Treidel, Holger

    2013-01-01

    As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

  12. Nuclear Energy and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Méritet, Sophie; Zaleski, Pierre

    2009-01-01

    The paper will discuss the possibilities of the development of nuclear energy in the world in the midterm and long term. It will correlate the prospects with the emissions of CO2 and the effects on climate change. In particular it will discuss the problems nuclear energy face to make a large contribution of climate change issue.

  13. Climate change challenges for SEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    This paper takes a theoretical perspective on the challenges that climate changes pose for SEA. The theoretical framework used is the sociologist Ulrich Beck’s theory of risk society and the aspects that characterise this society. Climate change is viewed as a risk, and the theory is used to derive...

  14. Teaching about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heffron, Susan Gallagher; Valmond, Kharra

    2011-01-01

    Students are exposed to many different media reports about global climate change. Movies such as "The Day After Tomorrow" and "Ice Age" are examples of instances when movie producers have sought to capture the attention of audiences by augmenting the challenges that climate change poses. Students may receive information from a wide range of media…

  15. Congress Assesses Climate Change Paleodata

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bierly, Eugene W.

    2006-08-01

    The `hockey stick' graph of surfacetemperature change overthe past millennium and implicationsfor climate change assessments wasthe subject of two hearings held by the U.S.House of Representatives Energy and CommerceSubcommittee on Oversight andInvestigations, on 19 and 27 July. These hearingsmarked only the second time that thecommittee has discussed climate issuessince George W. Bush became president.

  16. Dune erosion under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Winter, R.C.

    2014-01-01

    This PhD-thesis investigated the effect of future climate change on dune erosion in the Netherlands. At present, dune erosion occurs under a combination of large storm surge and high waves, which are both generated by a storm event. Therefore to investigate the affect of future climate change on dun

  17. Climate Change, Growth, and Poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Hull, Katy

    2008-01-01

    Equity emerged as the principal theme during the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) week session 'climate change, growth and poverty,' where presenters addressed the distributional consequences of climate change, as well as countries' unequal capacity to cope with the twin challenges of adaptation and mitigation. They highlighted actions to strengthen the global knowledge bas...

  18. Food security under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, Thomas W.

    2016-01-01

    Using food prices to assess climate change impacts on food security is misleading. Differential impacts on income require a broader measure of household well-being, such as changes in absolute poverty.

  19. Malaria ecology and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCord, G. C.

    2016-05-01

    Understanding the costs that climate change will exact on society is crucial to devising an appropriate policy response. One of the channels through while climate change will affect human society is through vector-borne diseases whose epidemiology is conditioned by ambient ecology. This paper introduces the literature on malaria, its cost on society, and the consequences of climate change to the physics community in hopes of inspiring synergistic research in the area of climate change and health. It then demonstrates the use of one ecological indicator of malaria suitability to provide an order-of-magnitude assessment of how climate change might affect the malaria burden. The average of Global Circulation Model end-of-century predictions implies a 47% average increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease in today's malarious areas, significantly complicating malaria elimination efforts.

  20. Climate change and marine vertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sydeman, William J; Poloczanska, Elvira; Reed, Thomas E; Thompson, Sarah Ann

    2015-11-13

    Climate change impacts on vertebrates have consequences for marine ecosystem structures and services. We review marine fish, mammal, turtle, and seabird responses to climate change and discuss their potential for adaptation. Direct and indirect responses are demonstrated from every ocean. Because of variation in research foci, observed responses differ among taxonomic groups (redistributions for fish, phenology for seabirds). Mechanisms of change are (i) direct physiological responses and (ii) climate-mediated predator-prey interactions. Regional-scale variation in climate-demographic functions makes range-wide population dynamics challenging to predict. The nexus of metabolism relative to ecosystem productivity and food webs appears key to predicting future effects on marine vertebrates. Integration of climate, oceanographic, ecosystem, and population models that incorporate evolutionary processes is needed to prioritize the climate-related conservation needs for these species. PMID:26564847

  1. Business and climate change: Key strategic and policy challenges

    OpenAIRE

    Ans Kolk; Jonatan Pinkse

    2010-01-01

    Many companies, policymakers and other stakeholders see climate change as the most pressing environmental problem of our time. In bailout plans and policies to address the economic recession and credit crisis, climate aspects haves figured prominently as well. This article examines recent policy and economic developments and their relevance for business and climate change, considering the implications of the economic slowdown and bailouts. Dilemmas in the economy-climate-policy nexus in the c...

  2. Global climate change and international security.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karas, Thomas H.

    2003-11-01

    This report originates in a workshop held at Sandia National Laboratories, bringing together a variety of external experts with Sandia personnel to discuss 'The Implications of Global Climate Change for International Security.' Whatever the future of the current global warming trend, paleoclimatic history shows that climate change happens, sometimes abruptly. These changes can severely impact human water supplies, agriculture, migration patterns, infrastructure, financial flows, disease prevalence, and economic activity. Those impacts, in turn, can lead to national or international security problems stemming from aggravation of internal conflicts, increased poverty and inequality, exacerbation of existing international conflicts, diversion of national and international resources from international security programs (military or non-military), contribution to global economic decline or collapse, or international realignments based on climate change mitigation policies. After reviewing these potential problems, the report concludes with a brief listing of some research, technology, and policy measures that might mitigate them.

  3. Climate variability and change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    When Australia's climate should not be definite barrier to the population reaching 30 million by 2050, it is recognised that our climate has limited the development of the nation over the past 200 years. Indeed in 1911, based on a comparison of the climate and development between the US and Australia. Griffith Taylor predicted that Australia's population would be 19 million at the end of the 20th century, which is a pretty good 90-year forecast. The climate constraint is not only due to much of the country being semi-arid with an annual rainfall below 400 millimetres, but also due to the large year-to-year variability of rainfall across the country

  4. Climate change experiments in Hamburg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubasch, U. [DKRZ, Hamburg (Germany)

    1995-12-31

    Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the simulations with present day conditions (1980-1990) is too late, because then a considerable part of the warming since the beginning of the industrialization (ca. 1750) has been neglected. Furthermore it has only recently become clear that the sulphat-aerosols play an important role in the present day climate and in the future climate. The effect of the sulphat aerosols has first been simulated in a number of equilibrium simulations with mixed layer models, but nowadays with globally coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models

  5. Climate change or variable weather

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baron, Nina; Kjerulf Petersen, Lars

    2015-01-01

    Climate scenarios predict that an effect of climate change will be more areas at risk of extensive flooding. This article builds on a qualitative case study of homeowners in the flood-prone area of Lolland in Denmark and uses the theories of Tim Ingold and Bruno Latour to rethink the way we...... understand homeowners’ perception of climate change and local flood risk. Ingold argues that those perceptions are shaped by people’s experiences with and connections to their local landscape. People experience the local variability of the weather, and not global climate change as presented in statistical...... data and models. This influences the way they understand the future risks of climate change. Concurrently, with the theory of Latour, we can understand how those experiences with the local landscape are mediated by the existing water-managing technologies such as pumps and dikes. These technologies...

  6. Implications of Climate Change on the Heat Budget of Lentic Systems Used for Power Station Cooling: Case Study Clinton Lake, Illinois.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quijano, Juan C; Jackson, P Ryan; Santacruz, Santiago; Morales, Viviana M; García, Marcelo H

    2016-01-01

    We use a numerical model to analyze the impact of climate change-in particular higher air temperatures-on a nuclear power station that recirculates the water from a reservoir for cooling. The model solves the hydrodynamics, the transfer of heat in the reservoir, and the energy balance at the surface. We use the numerical model to (i) quantify the heat budget in the reservoir and determine how this budget is affected by the combined effect of the power station and climate change and (ii) quantify the impact of climate change on both the downstream thermal pollution and the power station capacity. We consider four different scenarios of climate change. Results of simulations show that climate change will reduce the ability to dissipate heat to the atmosphere and therefore the cooling capacity of the reservoir. We observed an increase of 25% in the thermal load downstream of the reservoir, and a reduction in the capacity of the power station of 18% during the summer months for the worst-case climate change scenario tested. These results suggest that climate change is an important threat for both the downstream thermal pollution and the generation of electricity by power stations that use lentic systems for cooling. PMID:26556581

  7. Implications of climate change on the heat budget of lentic systems used for power station cooling: Case study Clinton Lake, Illinois

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quijano, Juan C; Jackson, P. Ryan; Santacruz, Santiago; Morales, Viviana M; Garcia, Marcelo H.

    2016-01-01

    We use a numerical model to analyze the impact of climate change--in particular higher air temperatures--on a nuclear power station that recirculates the water from a reservoir for cooling. The model solves the hydrodynamics, the transfer of heat in the reservoir, and the energy balance at the surface. We use the numerical model to (i) quantify the heat budget in the reservoir and determine how this budget is affected by the combined effect of the power station and climate change and (ii) quantify the impact of climate change on both the downstream thermal pollution and the power station capacity. We consider four different scenarios of climate change. Results of simulations show that climate change will reduce the ability to dissipate heat to the atmosphere and therefore the cooling capacity of the reservoir. We observed an increase of 25% in the thermal load downstream of the reservoir, and a reduction in the capacity of the power station of 18% during the summer months for the worst-case climate change scenario tested. These results suggest that climate change is an important threat for both the downstream thermal pollution and the generation of electricity by power stations that use lentic systems for cooling.

  8. Implications of Climate Change on the Heat Budget of Lentic Systems Used for Power Station Cooling: Case Study Clinton Lake, Illinois.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quijano, Juan C; Jackson, P Ryan; Santacruz, Santiago; Morales, Viviana M; García, Marcelo H

    2016-01-01

    We use a numerical model to analyze the impact of climate change-in particular higher air temperatures-on a nuclear power station that recirculates the water from a reservoir for cooling. The model solves the hydrodynamics, the transfer of heat in the reservoir, and the energy balance at the surface. We use the numerical model to (i) quantify the heat budget in the reservoir and determine how this budget is affected by the combined effect of the power station and climate change and (ii) quantify the impact of climate change on both the downstream thermal pollution and the power station capacity. We consider four different scenarios of climate change. Results of simulations show that climate change will reduce the ability to dissipate heat to the atmosphere and therefore the cooling capacity of the reservoir. We observed an increase of 25% in the thermal load downstream of the reservoir, and a reduction in the capacity of the power station of 18% during the summer months for the worst-case climate change scenario tested. These results suggest that climate change is an important threat for both the downstream thermal pollution and the generation of electricity by power stations that use lentic systems for cooling.

  9. Climate change and avian influenza

    OpenAIRE

    Gilbert, Marius; Slingenbergh, Jan; Xiao, Xiangming

    2008-01-01

    This paper discusses impacts of climate change on the ecology of avian influenza viruses (AI viruses), which presumably co-evolved with migratory water birds, with virus also persisting outside the host in subarctic water bodies. Climate change would almost certainly alter bird migration, influence the AI virus transmission cycle and directly affect virus survival outside the host. The joint, net effects of these changes are rather unpredictable, but it is likely that AI virus circulation in ...

  10. Regional climate change and national responsibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko

    2016-03-01

    Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the ‘bell curve’ defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.

  11. Acclimation of tree function and structure to climate change and implications to forest carbon and nutrient balances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hari, P.; Nissinen, A.; Berninger, F. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Forest Ecology] [and others

    1996-12-31

    Before large-scale anthropogenetic emissions the environmental factors have been rather stable for thousands of years, varying yearly, seasonally and daily in rather regular manners around some mean values. In this century the emissions of CO{sub 2}, sulphur and nitrogen from society to atmosphere are changing both atmospheric and soil environment at rates not experienced before. The fluxes to soil affect the contents of plant available nutrients and solubility of toxic compounds in the forest soil. Additionally, the chemical state of soil environment is coupled to tree growth, litter production and nutrient uptake as well as to the activity of biological organisms in soil, which decompose litter and release nutrients from it. Trees have developed effective regulation systems to cope with the environment during the evolution. The resulting acclimations improve the functioning of the trees if the environmental factors remain within their range of variation during the evolution. Outside the range the results of the regulation are unpredictable. The acclimative changes caused by the action of the regulation system may considerably change the response of trees to present environmental change. The analysis of the effects of present environmental change on forests requires simultaneous treatment of the atmosphere, forest soils and trees. Each of these components is dominated by its own features. The analyze of material and energy fluxes connect them to each other. The aim of this research is to analyse changes in the forest soils and reactions of trees to changes in the atmosphere and forest soils under a common theoretical framework, enabling combination of the obtained results into a holistic analysis of the response of forests to the present environmental change

  12. Climatic change; Le Changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perthuis, Ch. de [Universite de Paris-Dauphine, 75 - Paris (France); Caisse des depots, Mission climat, 75 - Paris (France); Delbosc, A. [Caisse des depots, Mission climat, 75 - Paris (France)

    2009-07-01

    Received ideas about climatic change are a mixture of right and wrong information. The authors use these ideas as starting points to shade light on what we really know and what we believe to know. The book is divided in three main chapters: should we act in front of climatic change? How can we efficiently act? How can we equitably act? For each chapter a series of received ideas is analyzed in order to find those which can usefully contribute to mitigate the environmental, economical and social impacts of climatic change. (J.S.)

  13. Inhalation anaesthetics and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mads Peter Sulbæk; Sander, S P; Nielsen, O J;

    2010-01-01

    Although the increasing abundance of CO(2) in our atmosphere is the main driver of the observed climate change, it is the cumulative effect of all forcing agents that dictate the direction and magnitude of the change, and many smaller contributors are also at play. Isoflurane, desflurane......, and sevoflurane are widely used inhalation anaesthetics. Emissions of these compounds contribute to radiative forcing of climate change. To quantitatively assess the impact of the anaesthetics on the forcing of climate, detailed information on their properties of heat (infrared, IR) absorption and atmospheric...

  14. Impacts from ice-nucleating bacteria on deep convection: implications for the biosphere-atmosphere interaction in climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. T. J. Phillips

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available A cloud modeling framework is described to simulate ice nucleation by biogenic aerosol particles, as represented by airborne ice-nucleation active (INA bacteria. It includes the empirical parameterization of heterogeneous ice nucleation. The formation of cloud liquid by soluble material coated on such insoluble aerosols is represented and determines their partial removal from deep convective clouds by accretion onto precipitation.

    Preliminary simulations are performed for a case of deep convection over Oklahoma. If present at high enough concentrations, as might occur in proximity to land sources, INA bacteria are found to influence significantly: – (1 the average numbers and sizes of crystals in the clouds; (2 the horizontal cloud coverage in the free troposphere; and (3 precipitation and incident solar insolation at the surface, which influence rates of bacterial growth. At lower concentrations, the corresponding responses of cloud fields appear much lower or are ambiguous.

    In nature, the growth rates of INA bacteria on leaves prior to emission into the atmosphere are known to be highly dependent on temperature, precipitation and plant species. Consequently, the open question emerges of whether emissions of such ice-nucleating biogenic particles can then be modified by their own effects on clouds and atmospheric conditions, forming a weak feedback in climate or microclimate systems.

  15. Ground water and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    As the world’s largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food secu¬rity will probably intensify under climate chan...

  16. Deliberating Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agger, Annika; Jelsøe, Erling; Jæger, Birgit;

    to include the voice of the citizens into complex scientific and technological issues. The purpose of WWV was to pass on the opinions of ordinary citizens to political decision-makers at The United Nations Climate Summit, COP15, in Copenhagen in December 2009. The authors made a study of the Danish WWV event...

  17. Coping with climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zheng, Yuan; Byg, Anja

    2014-01-01

    found across villages regarding the degree of perceived sensitivity and responses despite similar exposure to climate extremes. These differences are partly related to the nature of events and varied socio-economic characteristics of households, which influence their vulnerability and ability to cope...

  18. Climate change and health – what’s the problem?

    OpenAIRE

    Anstey, Matthew HR

    2013-01-01

    The scientific consensus is that global warming is occurring and is largely the result of greenhouse gas emissions from human activity. This paper examines the health implications of global warming, the current socio-political attitudes towards action on climate change and highlight the health co-benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, policy development for climate change and health should embrace health systems strengthening, commencing by incorporating climate change ta...

  19. Climate Change and Health – What’s the Problem?

    OpenAIRE

    Anstey, Matthew Harry Richards

    2013-01-01

    The scientific consensus is that global warming is occurring and is largely the result of greenhouse gas emissions from human activity. This paper examines the health implications of global warming, the current socio-political attitudes towards action on climate change and highlight the health co-benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, policy development for climate change and health should embrace health systems strengthening, commencing by incorporating climate change ta...

  20. Climate change and water resources in Britain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper explores the potential implications of climate change for the use and management of water resources in Britain. It is based on a review of simulations of changes in river flows, groundwater recharge and river water quality. These simulations imply, under feasible climate change scenarios, that annual, winter and summer runoff will decrease in southern Britain, groundwater recharge will be reduced and that water quality - as characterised by nitrate concentrations and dissolved oxygen contents - will deteriorate. In northern Britain, river flows are likely to increase throughout the year, particularly in winter. Climate change may lead to increased demands for water, over and above that increase which is forecast for non-climatic reasons, primarily due to increased use for garden watering. These increased pressures on the water resource base will impact not only upon the reliability of water supplies, but also upon navigation, aquatic ecosystems, recreation and power generation, and will have implications for water management. Flood risk is likely to increase, implying a reduction in standards of flood protection. The paper discusses adaptation options. 39 refs., 5 figs

  1. Optical and Physical Properties from Primary On-Road Vehicle ParticleEmissions And Their Implications for Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strawa, A.W.; Kirchstetter, T.W.; Hallar, A.G.; Ban-Weiss, G.A.; McLaughlin, J.P.; Harley, R.A.; Lunden, M.M.

    2009-01-23

    During the summers of 2004 and 2006, extinction and scattering coefficients of particle emissions inside a San Francisco Bay Area roadway tunnel were measured using a combined cavity ring-down and nephelometer instrument. Particle size distributions and humidification were also measured, as well as several gas phase species. Vehicles in the tunnel traveled up a 4% grade at a speed of approximately 60 km h{sup -1}. The traffic situation in the tunnel allows the apportionment of emission factors between light duty gasoline vehicles and diesel trucks. Cross-section emission factors for optical properties were determined for the apportioned vehicles to be consistent with gas phase and particulate matter emission factors. The absorption emission factor (the absorption cross-section per mass of fuel burned) for diesel trucks (4.4 {+-} 0.79 m{sup 2} kg{sup -1}) was 22 times larger than for light-duty gasoline vehicles (0.20 {+-} 0.05 m{sup 2} kg{sup -1}). The single scattering albedo of particles - which represents the fraction of incident light that is scattered as opposed to absorbed - was 0.2 for diesel trucks and 0.3 for light duty gasoline vehicles. These facts indicate that particulate matter from motor vehicles exerts a positive (i.e., warming) radiative climate forcing. Average particulate mass absorption efficiencies for diesel trucks and light duty gasoline vehicles were 3.14 {+-} 0.88 m{sup 2} g{sub PM}{sup -1} and 2.9 {+-} 1.07 m{sup 2} g{sub PM}{sup -1}, respectively. Particle size distributions and optical properties were insensitive to increases in relative humidity to values in excess of 90%, reinforcing previous findings that freshly emitted motor vehicle particulate matter is hydrophobic.

  2. Climate change in the Brazilian northeast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Regina R.; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Hoelzemann, Judith J.

    2012-10-01

    Climate Change, Impacts and Vulnerabilities in Brazil: Preparing the Brazilian Northeast for the Future; Natal, Brazil, 27 May to 01 June 2012 The variability of the semiarid climate of the Brazilian northeast has enormous environmental and social implications. Because most of the population in this area depends on subsistence agriculture, periods of severe drought in the past have caused extreme poverty and subsequent migration to urban centers. From the ecological point of view, frequent and prolonged droughts can lead to the desertification of large areas. Understanding the causes of rainfall variability, in particular periods of severe drought, is crucial for accurate forecasting, mitigation, and adaptation in this important region of Brazil.

  3. An ethical response to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geoffrey William Lamberton

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the ethical question of the responsibility of business organisations to respond to climate change. Ethical principles of ‘polluter pays‘, ‘historic culpability’ and ‘equitable distribution of the carbon budget’ are applied to the question of ‘should business respond to climate change’, using rights and utilitarian ethical analyses. An ethical argument is established for business organisations to decarbonise their production and distribution systems rather than delay action. Government policies required to remove barriers which are delaying a widespread and meaningful response by business to humankind’s greatest moral challenge together with the ethical implications are discussed.

  4. Can Climate Change Negotiations Succeed?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Hovi

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available More than two decades of climate change negotiations have produced a series of global climate agreements, such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Copenhagen Accords, but have nevertheless made very limited progress in curbing global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper considers whether negotiations can succeed in reaching an agreement that effectively addresses the climate change problem. To be effective, a climate agreement must cause substantial emissions reductions either directly (in the agreement's own lifetime or indirectly (by paving the way for a future agreement that causes substantial emissions reductions directly. To reduce global emissions substantially, an agreement must satisfy three conditions. Firstly, participation must be both comprehensive and stable. Secondly, participating countries must accept deep commitments. Finally, the agreement must obtain high compliance rates. We argue that three types of enforcement will be crucial to fulfilling these three conditions: (1 incentives for countries to ratify with deep commitments, (2 incentives for countries that have ratified with deep commitments to abstain from withdrawal, and (3 incentives for countries having ratified with deep commitments to comply with them. Based on assessing the constraints that characterize the climate change negotiations, we contend that adopting such three-fold potent enforcement will likely be politically infeasible, not only within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, but also in the framework of a more gradual approach. Therefore, one should not expect climate change negotiations to succeed in producing an effective future agreement—either directly or indirectly.

  5. Shallow groundwater thermal sensitivity to climate change and land cover disturbances: derivation of analytical expressions and implications for stream temperature modeling

    OpenAIRE

    B. L. Kurylyk; MacQuarrie, K. T. B.; D. Caissie; McKenzie, J. M.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is expected to increase stream temperatures and the projected warming may alter the spatial extent of habitat for cold-water fish and other aquatic taxa. Recent studies have proposed that stream thermal sensitivities, derived from short-term air temperature variations, can be employed to infer future stream warming due to long-term climate change. However, this approach does not consider the potential for streambed heat fluxes to increase due to gradual warmin...

  6. Urbanising Thailand: Implications for climate vulnerability assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Friend; C. Choosuk; K. Hutanuwatr; Y. Inmuong; J. Kittitornkool; B. Lambregts; B. Promphakping; T. Roachanakanan; P. Thiengburanathum; S. Siriwattanaphaiboon

    2016-01-01

    This report summarises a series of studies carried out by a multi-disciplinary team of Thai scholars. It focuses on the dynamics of urbanisation and climate change risks, and on the linkages between urbanisation, climate change and emerging patterns of urban poverty and vulnerability. It provides ne

  7. Climate change; Le changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    Based on contributions on 120 French and foreign scientists representing different disciplines (mathematics, physics, mechanics, chemistry, biology, medicine, and so on), this report proposes an overview of the scientific knowledge and debate about climate change. It discusses the various indicators of climate evolution (temperatures, ice surfaces, sea level, biological indicators) and the various factors which may contribute to climate evolution (greenhouse gases, solar radiation). It also comments climate evolutions in the past as they can be investigated through some geological, thermal or geochemical indicators. Then, the authors describe and discuss the various climate mechanisms: solar activity, oceans, ice caps, greenhouse gases. In a third part, the authors discuss the different types of climate models which differ by the way they describe processes, and the current validation process for these models

  8. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Agriculture in the U.S. Climate change presents real threats to U.S. agricultural production, forest resources, and rural economies. These threats have significant implications not just for farmers, ranchers, ...

  9. How will climate change working life?

    OpenAIRE

    Lundgren, Karin

    2014-01-01

    Heat stress has been studied extensively. However, in the contemporary context of climate change there is a lack of information on the extent of future heat stress and its consequences, especially in occupational settings. The main aim of the research was to identify the current knowledge gaps by conducting a literature review (paper I) together with the collection of empirical data to examine the implications for labour productivity and occupational health in already hot workplaces in Chenna...

  10. Plasticity in physiological traits in conifers: Implications for response to climate change in the western U.S

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grulke, N.E., E-mail: ngrulke@fs.fed.u [Pacific Southwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 4955 Canyon Crest Drive, Riverside, CA 92507 (United States)

    2010-06-15

    Population variation in ecophysiological traits of four co-occurring montane conifers was measured on a large latitudinal gradient to quantitatively assess their potential for response to environmental change. White fir (Abies concolor) had the highest variability, gross photosynthetic rate (Pg), and foliar carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) content. Despite low water use efficiency (WUE), stomatal conductance (gs) of fir was the most responsive to unfavorable environmental conditions. Pinus lambertiana exhibited the least variability in Pg and WUE, and is likely to be the most vulnerable to environmental changes. Pinus ponderosa had an intermediate level of variability, and high needle growth at its higher elevational limits. Pinus Jeffreyi also had intermediate variability, but high needle growth at its southern latitudinal and lower elevational limits. The attributes used to assess tree vigor were effective in predicting population vulnerability to abiotic (drought) and biotic (herbivore) stresses. - Variability in ecophysiological attributes of western U.S. conifers suggests relative capacity of species and populations to respond to environmental change.

  11. Climate change and water resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Younos, Tamim [The Cabell Brand Center for Global Poverty and Resource Sustainability Studies, Salem, VA (United States); Grady, Caitlin A. (ed.) [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Ecological Sciences and Engineering Program

    2013-07-01

    This volume presents nine chapters prepared by international authors and highlighting various aspects of climate change and water resources. Climate change models and scenarios, particularly those related to precipitation projection, are discussed and uncertainties and data deficiencies that affect the reliability of predictions are identified. The potential impacts of climate change on water resources (including quality) and on crop production are analyzed and adaptation strategies for crop production are offered. Furthermore, case studies of climate change mitigation strategies, such as the reduction of water use and conservation measures in urban environments, are included. This book will serve as a valuable reference work for researchers and students in water and environmental sciences, as well as for governmental agencies and policy makers.

  12. Cities lead on climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pancost, Richard D.

    2016-04-01

    The need to mitigate climate change opens up a key role for cities. Bristol's year as a Green Capital led to great strides forward, but it also revealed that a creative and determined partnership across cultural divides will be necessary.

  13. Welfare impacts of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hof, Andries F.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change can affect well-being in poor economies more than previously shown if its effect on economic growth, and not only on current production, is considered. But this result does not necessarily suggest greater mitigation efforts are required.

  14. Making Sense of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blichfeldt, Nikolaj Vendelbo

    The thesis is an ethnographic description of a climate change mitigation campaign among retirees in the urban residential community Dongping Lane in central Hangzhou, and an examination of local understandings of connections between everyday life in the community and global climate change......, as a point of departure for an examination of what happens when a requirement to save energy and resources, as a response to global climate change, encounters local ways of knowing the world. Developed through meetings, workshops, competitions and the promotion of exemplary individuals, the campaign...... is conceived as part of wider state-sponsored efforts to foster civilized behavior and a sense of belonging to the residential community among urban citizens in China. The campaigners connect unspectacular everyday consumer practices with climate change and citizenship by showing that among them, making...

  15. Climate change and group dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postmes, Tom

    2015-01-01

    The characteristics and views of people sceptical about climate change have been analysed extensively. A study now confirms that sceptics in the US have some characteristics of a social movement, but shows that the same group dynamics propel believers

  16. Climate Change Science Program Collection

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Collection consists of publications and other resources produced between 2007 and 2009 by the CCSP with the intention of...

  17. Climate change: Unattributed hurricane damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallegatte, Stéphane

    2015-11-01

    In the United States, hurricanes have been causing more and more economic damage. A reanalysis of the disaster database using a statistical method that accounts for improvements in resilience opens the possibility that climate change has played a role.

  18. Climate change and water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This volume presents nine chapters prepared by international authors and highlighting various aspects of climate change and water resources. Climate change models and scenarios, particularly those related to precipitation projection, are discussed and uncertainties and data deficiencies that affect the reliability of predictions are identified. The potential impacts of climate change on water resources (including quality) and on crop production are analyzed and adaptation strategies for crop production are offered. Furthermore, case studies of climate change mitigation strategies, such as the reduction of water use and conservation measures in urban environments, are included. This book will serve as a valuable reference work for researchers and students in water and environmental sciences, as well as for governmental agencies and policy makers.

  19. Ozone and climate change impacts on forest ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Giulia Carriero

    2016-01-01

    The increase of tropospheric ozone pollution is affecting forest ecosystems as climate change. This thesis reports the interactions of plant responses to ozone and soil nutrients considering implications for future climate change. The study focuses on mechanisms of action of: ozone pollution on tree functionality and ozone and soil nutrients on BVOC emitted by vegetation

  20. Using pollen data to distinguish between climatic and anthropogenic driven landscape change in south-western Turkey, and its implications for understanding sediment dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker, Johan; Verstraeten, Gert; Kaniewski, David; Paulissen, Etienne; Dusar, Bert; D'Haen, Koen; Waelkens, Marc

    2010-05-01

    Sediment dynamics during the Holocene are mainly controlled by either climate change or human impact, as is evidenced by numerous field studies. In order to identify the relative importance of climate or human impact, it is foremost vital to have a good idea about the intensity of these driving forces. Within the territory of the ancient city of Sagalassos, located in the Taurus mountain range in SW Turkey, interdisciplinary research including geomorphology, palynology and archaeology, has shown that sediment dynamics were important during the Hellenistic-Roman period. During this period the region also underwent intensification in crop cultivation and arboriculture, resulting in the destruction of the natural forest ecosystem and an extensive spread of forest steppe in the highlands. Although minor climatic changes did occur during this period, human impact was more important for controlling geomorphic processes. Less is known about the period following the decline of Roman presence in the region and the extent of climatic and anthropogenic influences on the region during this period. Here we present the results of a study performed in the Gravgaz marsh, located at an elevation of 1215 m, near the archaeological site of Sagalassos. A numerical approach enabled the creation of a pollen-derived climatic proxy. With this proxy it is possible to determine whether shifts in local and regional vegetation may be attributed to changes in human presence or climatic changes. Additionally, it is possible to determine which factors influence the vegetation when changes in the climate and in human occupation coincide. Results show a succession of sudden vegetation changes that coincided with well-defined European climate shifts occurring from the end of the Hellenistic-Roman period to the present, including the medieval climate anomaly and the Little Ice age. The results also show the occurrence of two distinct periods without signs of agriculture in the region. The geomorphic

  1. Reservoir Systems in Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lien, W.; Tung, C.; Tai, C.

    2007-12-01

    Climate change may cause more climate variability and further results in more frequent extreme hydrological events which may greatly influence reservoir¡¦s abilities to provide service, such as water supply and flood mitigation, and even danger reservoir¡¦s safety. Some local studies have identified that climate change may cause more flood in wet period and less flow in dry period in Taiwan. To mitigate climate change impacts, more reservoir space, i.e. less storage, may be required to store higher flood in wet periods, while more reservoir storage may be required to supply water for dry periods. The goals to strengthen adaptive capacity of water supply and flood mitigation are conflict under climate change. This study will focus on evaluating the impacts of climate change on reservoir systems. The evaluation procedure includes hydrological models, a reservoir water balance model, and a water supply system dynamics model. The hydrological models are used to simulate reservoir inflows under different climate conditions. Future climate scenarios are derived from several GCMs. Then, the reservoir water balance model is developed to calculate reservoir¡¦s storage and outflows according to the simulated inflows and operational rules. The ability of flood mitigation is also evaluated. At last, those outflows are further input to the system dynamics model to assess whether the goal of water supply can still be met. To mitigate climate change impacts, the implementing adaptation strategies will be suggested with the principles of risk management. Besides, uncertainties of this study will also be analyzed. The Feitsui reservoir system in northern Taiwan is chosen as a case study.

  2. Responsible Reaction To Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    China calls for turning UNFCCC provisions into concrete actions Never before has climate change been as prominent on the public agenda as it is today.Its rele- vance was highlighted once again when more than 10,000 delegates from over 180 countries flocked to Bali early this month to discuss the topic.Environment officials as well as representatives from intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations gath- ered on the Indonesian island on December 3-14 for the UN Climate Change Conference.

  3. Social protection and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnson, Craig; Bansha Dulal, Hari; Prowse, Martin Philip;

    2013-01-01

    This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject.......This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject....

  4. Learning from integrated assessment of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of integrated assessment of climate change is to put available knowledge together in order to evaluate what has been learned, policy implications, and research needs. This paper summarizes insights gained from five years of integrated assessment activity at Carnegie Mellon. After an introduction, Section 2 asks; who are the climate decision makers? It is concluded that they are a diffuse and often divergent group spread all over the world whose decisions are primarily driven by local non-climate considerations. Insights are illustrated with results from the ICAM-2 model. Section 3 asks: what is the climate problem? In addition to the conventional answer, it is noted that in a democracy the problem is whatever voters and their elected representatives think it is. Results from studies of public understanding are reported. Several other specific issues that define the problem, including the treatment of aerosols and alternative indices for comparing greenhouse gases are discussed. Section 4 discusses studies of climate impacts, focusing on coastal zones, the terrestrial biosphere and human health. Particular attention is placed on the roles of adaptation, value change, and technological innovation. In Section 5 selected policy issues are discussed. It is concluded by noting that equity has received too little attention in past work. It is argued that many conventional tools for policy analysis are not adequate to deal with climate problems. Values that change, and mixed levels of uncertainty, pose particularly important challenges for the future. 90 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs

  5. Climate Change in Developing Countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Drunen, M.A.; Lasage, R.; Dorlands, C. (eds.) [Free University, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2006-09-15

    This book presents an overview of the studies conducted by the Netherlands Climate Change Studies Assistance programme. The programme was set up in recognition of the need for developing countries, in particular, to face the challenges confronting all countries under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The book presents an overview of the main results in 13 countries: Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Egypt, Ghana, Kazakhstan, Mali, Mongolia, Senegal, Surinam, Vietnam, Yemen and Zimbabwe. It provides a critical evaluation of the methodologies and approaches used, a cross-country synthesis and recommendations for further studies. Subjects dealt with include not only impact studies, but also vulnerability and adaptation, mitigation and climate related policy.

  6. Climate Change Facts: Answers to Common Questions

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Basics Climate Change Facts: Answers to Common Questions Climate Change Facts: Answers to Common Questions This page ... All Responses Is there a scientific consensus on climate change? The major scientific agencies of the United ...

  7. Europeans' attitudes towards climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents the results of a survey on Europeans' attitudes towards climate change which was carried out in January and February 2009. The survey focuses on: Citizens' perceptions of climate change in relation to other world problems; Citizens' perceptions of the seriousness of climate change; The extent to which citizens feel informed about climate change - its causes, consequences and ways of fighting it; Citizens' attitudes towards alternative fuels and CO2 emissions; Whether citizens feel that climate change is stoppable or has been exaggerated, and what impact it has on the European economy; Whether citizens have taken personal action to fight climate change. This Eurobarometer survey was carried out by TNS Opinion and Social network between 16 January and 22 February 2009. The interviews were conducted among 26,718 citizens in the 27 Member States of the European Union, the three candidate countries for accession to the European Union (Croatia, Turkey and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia) and in the Turkish Cypriot Community.

  8. Classifying climate change adaptation frameworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Jennifer

    2014-05-01

    Complex socio-ecological demographics are factors that must be considered when addressing adaptation to the potential effects of climate change. As such, a suite of deployable climate change adaptation frameworks is necessary. Multiple frameworks that are required to communicate the risks of climate change and facilitate adaptation. Three principal adaptation frameworks have emerged from the literature; Scenario - Led (SL), Vulnerability - Led (VL) and Decision - Centric (DC). This study aims to identify to what extent these adaptation frameworks; either, planned or deployed are used in a neighbourhood vulnerable to climate change. This work presents a criterion that may be used as a tool for identifying the hallmarks of adaptation frameworks and thus enabling categorisation of projects. The study focussed on the coastal zone surrounding the Sizewell nuclear power plant in Suffolk in the UK. An online survey was conducted identifying climate change adaptation projects operating in the study area. This inventory was analysed to identify the hallmarks of each adaptation project; Levels of dependency on climate model information, Metrics/units of analysis utilised, Level of demographic knowledge, Level of stakeholder engagement, Adaptation implementation strategies and Scale of adaptation implementation. The study found that climate change adaptation projects could be categorised, based on the hallmarks identified, in accordance with the published literature. As such, the criterion may be used to establish the matrix of adaptation frameworks present in a given area. A comprehensive summary of the nature of adaptation frameworks in operation in a locality provides a platform for further comparative analysis. Such analysis, enabled by the criterion, may aid the selection of appropriate frameworks enhancing the efficacy of climate change adaptation.

  9. Costing the impact of climate change on tourism in Europe: results of the PESETA project. Climatic Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amelung, B.; Moreno, A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change might lead to large shifts in tourist flows, with large economic implications. This article simulates the effect of future climate change by the 2080s on outdoor international tourism expenditure within Europe. The assessment is based on the statistical relationship between bed nights

  10. Public Perception of Climate Change and the New Climate Dice

    CERN Document Server

    Hansen, James; Ruedy, Reto

    2012-01-01

    "Climate dice", describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons relative to climatology, have become progressively "loaded" in the past 30 years, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3{\\sigma}) warmer than climatology. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth's surface in the period of climatology, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming, because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small. We discuss practical implications of this substantial, growing, climate change.

  11. Public Perception of Climate Change and the New Climate Dice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto

    2012-01-01

    "Climate dice", describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons, have become more and more "loaded" in the past 30 years, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3 sigma) warmer than the climatology of the 1951-1980 base period. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth's surface during the base period, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming, because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small. We discuss practical implications of this substantial, growing, climate change.

  12. Climate Change and Nuclear Power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is one of a series of recent agreements through which countries around the world are banding together to meet the challenge of altering the global climate. In 1997, in respond to the growing public pressure and questions on climate change governments adopted the Kyoto Protocol. The 5th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP5 UNFCCC) was a rather technical and complex conference which focused in particular on the development of a detailed framework for the application of ''flexible mechanisms'' as laid down in the Kyoto Protocol. Young Generation Network as a part of the International Nuclear Forum at COP5 took part in the debate saying that nuclear is the part of the solution. (author)

  13. Projection of future climate changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate models provide the opportunity to anticipate how the climate system may change due to anthropogenic activities during the 21. century. Studies are based on numerical simulations that explore the evolution of the mean climate and its variability according to different socio-economic scenarios. We present a selection of results from phase 5 of the Climate model intercomparison project (CMIP5) with an illustrative focus on the two French models that participated to this exercise. We describe the effects of human perturbations upon surface temperature, precipitation, the cryo-sphere, but also extreme weather events and the carbon cycle. Results show a number of robust features, on the amplitude and geographical patterns of the expected changes and on the processes at play in these changes. They also show the limitations of such a prospective exercise and persistent uncertainties on some key aspects. (authors)

  14. Climate change and preventive medicine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faergeman, Ole

    2007-01-01

    disease do not result from climate change, but they do share causes with climate change. Burning fossil fuels, for example, is the major source of greenhouse gases, but it also makes pervasive physical inactivity possible. Similarly, modern agriculture's enormous production of livestock contributes...... substantially to greenhouse gas emissions, and it is the source of many of our most energy-rich foods. Physicians and societies of medical professionals have a particular responsibility, therefore, to contribute to the public discourse about climate change and what to do about it. Udgivelsesdato: 2007-Dec......Thermal stress, food poisoning, infectious diseases, malnutrition, psychiatric illness as well as injury and death from floods, storms and fire are all likely to become more common as the earth warms and the climate becomes more variable. In contrast, obesity, type II diabetes and coronary artery...

  15. CLIMATE CHANGES: CAUSES AND IMPACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Slave

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Present brings several environmental problems for people. Many of these are closely related, but by far the most important problem is the climate change. In the course of Earth evolution, climate has changed many times, sometimes dramatically. Warmer eras always replaced and were in turn replaced by glacial ones. However, the climate of the past almost ten thousand years has been very stable. During this period human civilization has also developed. In the past nearly 100 years - since the beginning of industrialization - the global average temperature has increased by approx. 0.6 ° C (after IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, faster than at any time in the last 1000 years.

  16. The climate crisis: An introductory guide to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenberth, Kevin E.

    2011-06-01

    Human-induced climate change, sometimes called “global warming,” has, unfortunately, become a “hot” topic, embroiled in controversy, misinformation, and claims and counterclaims. It should not be this way, because there are many scientific facts that provide solid information on which to base policy. There is a very strong observational, theoretical, and modeling base in physical science that underpins current understanding of what has happened to Earth's climate and why and what the prospects are for the future under certain assumptions. Moreover, these changes have impacts, which are apt to grow, on the environment and human society. To avoid or reduce these impacts and the economic and human effects of undesirable future climate change requires actions that are strongly opposed by those with vested interests in the status quo, some of whom have funded misinformation campaigns that have successfully confused the public and some politicians, leading to paralysis in political action. Without mitigation of climate change, one would suppose that at least society would plan sensibly for the changes already happening and projected, but such future adaptation plans are also largely in limbo. The implication is that we will suffer the consequences. All of these aspects are addressed in this informative and attractive book, which is written for a fairly general but technically informed audience. The book is strongly based upon the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and therefore has a solid scientific basis. Many figures, graphs, and maps come from the three IPCC working group reports, although the captions often do not explain the detail shown. Given that the IPCC reports totaled nearly 3000 pages, to distill the complex material down to 249 pages is no mean task, and the authors have succeeded quite well.

  17. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  18. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmgren, K.; Karlen, W. [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography

    1998-12-01

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  19. Confronting climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), especially from energy production and use, and their impact on global climate emerged as a major national issue in the United States during the 1980s. As a result, Congress directed the US Department of Energy (DOE) to ask the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering to assess the current state of research and development (R ampersand D) in the United States in alternative energy sources, and to suggest energy R ampersand D strategies involving roles for both the public and private sectors, should the government want to give priority to stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs. The findings and recommendations of the Committee on Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies, appointed by the National Research Council in response to Congress's directive, are provided in this report and summarized in this chapter. The energy R ampersand D strategies and actions recommended by the committee are structured to facilitate prudent and decisive responses by the United States, despite uncertainties regarding the effects of GHGs on global climate. 96 refs., 4 figs., 17 tabs

  20. Conservation policies and planning under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strange, Niels; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Bladt, Jesper Stentoft;

    2011-01-01

    Biodiversity conservation policies focus on securing the survival of species and habitats according to their current distribution. This basic premise may be inappropriate for halting biodiversity decline under the dynamic changes caused by climate change. This study explores a dynamic spatial...... conservation prioritization problem where climate change gradually changes the future habitat suitability of a site’ current species. This has implications for survival probability, as well as for species that potentially immigrate to the site. The problem is explored using a set of heuristics for both of two...... distributions as the basis of decision rules can be crucial for ensuring the effectiveness of conservation plans. Finally, it is discussed how more adaptive strategies, that allow for the redirection of resources from protected sites to privately-owned sites, may increase the effectiveness of the conservation...

  1. Ocean Observations of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Don

    2016-01-01

    The ocean influences climate by storing and transporting large amounts of heat, freshwater, and carbon, and exchanging these properties with the atmosphere. About 93% of the excess heat energy stored by the earth over the last 50 years is found in the ocean. More than three quarters of the total exchange of water between the atmosphere and the earth's surface through evaporation and precipitation takes place over the oceans. The ocean contains 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere and is at present acting to slow the rate of climate change by absorbing one quarter of human emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, cement production, deforestation and other land use change.Here I summarize the observational evidence of change in the ocean, with an emphasis on basin- and global-scale changes relevant to climate. These include: changes in subsurface ocean temperature and heat content, evidence for regional changes in ocean salinity and their link to changes in evaporation and precipitation over the oceans, evidence of variability and change of ocean current patterns relevant to climate, observations of sea level change and predictions over the next century, and biogeochemical changes in the ocean, including ocean acidification.

  2. The changing world of climate change: Oregon leads the states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Following on the heels of recent national and international developments in climate change policy, Oregon's open-quote best-of-batch close-quote proceeding has validated the use of CO2 offsets as a cost-effective means of advancing climate change mitigation goals. The proceeding was a first in several respects and represents a record commitment of funds to CO2 mitigation by a private entity. In December 1995, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), issued its Second Assessment Report. The IPCC's conclusion that open-quotes[t]he balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climateclose quotes fundamentally changed the tenor of the policy debate regarding potential threats associated with global climate change. At the Climate Change Convention's Conference of the Parties (COP) in Geneva in July 1996, most countries, including the United States, advocated adopting the IPCC report as the basis for swift policy movement toward binding international emissions targets. The next COP, in December 1997, is scheduled to be the venue for the signing of a treaty protocol incorporating such targets. Binding targets would have major consequences for power plant operators in the US and around the world. Recent developments in the state of Oregon show the kinds of measures that may become commonplace at the state level in addressing climate change mitigation. First, Oregon recently completed the first administrative proceeding in the US aimed at offsetting the greenhouse gas emissions of a new power plant. Second, a legislatively mandated energy facility siting task force recently recommended that Oregon adopt a carbon dioxide (CO2) standard for new power plant construction and drop use of the open-quotes need for powerclose quotes standard. This article reviews these two policy milestones and their implications for climate change mitigation in the United States

  3. Ensuring sustainable development within a changing climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meltofte Traerup, S.L. (Technical Univ. of Denmark, Risoe National Lab. for Sustainable Energy, Systems Analysis Div., Roskilde (Denmark))

    2010-09-15

    The research in this thesis focuses on the impacts of and adaptation to present variations in climate and to projected future changes. The research has dealt with different levels, i.e. household/community, national/policymaking, and sectoral level, to show different perspectives of the implications of climate variability and change to development. In particular, it focuses on how present variations in rainfall patterns affect rural households, ways to strengthen households' resilience to climate variability, and the costs and benefits of adaptation measures. The research attempts to contribute to the knowledge that informs the development community and national governments for policy-making on the implications of climate change on development planning and strategies. It is argued in the thesis that it is essential for sustainable development to mainstream climate change into strategies and planning where relevant. To do this a knowledge of the costs and benefits of diverse adaptation measures is essential. Fluctuations in annual and seasonal rainfall, both in terms of modest and excessive rains, are found to cause negative shocks to rural household incomes in the Kagera a region of Tanzania. An analysis of rainfall and household data for the region shows large local discrepancies in the distribution of rainfall, as well as in households reporting shocks to income caused by harvest failure. It is also evident from the research results that the timing of rainfall seems to play a greater role than the level of annual precipitation. The coping strategies that households report following subsequent to a harvest failure further show local divergence in the choice of, for example, taking casual employment and relying on support from others in the form of informal networks. These results support earlier work which points in the same direction and emphasizes that policies should be targeted to local specificities. This provides a great motivation for targeted

  4. Putting Climate Change Adaptation in the Development Mainstream. Policy Brief

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change poses a serious challenge to social and economic development. Developing countries are particularly vulnerable because their economies are generally more dependent on climate-sensitive natural resources, and because they are less able to cope with the impacts of climate change. How development occurs has implications, in turn, for climate change and for the vulnerability of societies to its impacts. Climate change adaptation needs to be brought into the mainstream of economic policies, development projects, and international aid efforts. Considerable analytical work has been done on how development can be made climate-friendly in terms of helping reduce greenhouse gas emissions which cause climate change, although implementation remains a challenge. Much less attention has been paid to how development can be made more resilient to the impacts of climate change. In a narrow engineering sense, this could involve taking climate changes into account in the siting and design of bridges and other infrastructure. At a policy level, it could involve considering the implications of climate change on a variety of development activities including poverty reduction, sectoral development, and natural resource management. Bridging the gap between the climate change adaptation and development communities, however, is not easy. The two communities have different priorities, often operate on different time and space scales, and do not necessarily 'speak the same language'. Specific information is therefore needed on the significance of climate change for development activities along with operational guidance on how best to adapt to its impacts, within the context of other pressing social priorities. This Policy Brief looks at how far current development policies and programmes are taking climate change risks into account, as well as at ways to improve the 'mainstreaming' of adaptation to climate change in development planning and assistance

  5. Visiting a climate-influenced national park: the stability of climate change perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brownlee, Matthew Tyler James; Hallo, Jeffrey C; Wright, Brett A; Moore, Dewayne; Powell, Robert B

    2013-11-01

    Understanding perceptions of global environmental issues, such as climate change, can help inform resource management, policy development, and communication with constituents. Although a considerable amount of research documents citizens' perceptions of climate change, few have investigated how interactions with climate-impacted parks and protected areas influence these perceptions, and consequently elements of environmental management. Using a mixed methods Instrument Development Approach, the researchers examined the stability of park visitors' (N = 429) climate change perceptions during a daylong interaction with climate-sensitive and influenced resources at Kenai Fjords National Park in Alaska. Results indicate that global-level beliefs about climate change remained relatively stable during a park experience, but perceptions about climate change at the park-level (e.g., impacts) appeared more malleable. Findings also revealed the type of park experience (terrestrial vs. marine) can influence the degree of change in visitors' perceptions. Implications for communication, outreach, and park management are discussed.

  6. Climate change and fuel poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Simon Dresner; Paul Ekins

    2005-01-01

    The research examined the possible effects of rapid climate change on fuel poverty (needing to spend more than 10% of income to maintain a satisfactory level of warmth and other energy services in the home). One particular concern was the prospect that there might be a shutting off of the Gulf Stream, which warms Britain and the rest of north-western Europe. Computer simulations of the climate indicate that shutting down the Gulf Stream would cool England by about 3°C. Climate is not the only...

  7. Reporting the climate change crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Carvalho, Anabela

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most serious threats that humankind will have to deal with in the coming decades. There is every indication that it will engender a significant upheaval in the climate patterns of the world regions, with corresponding impacts on agriculture, ecosystems and human health. This main entail unpredictable weather events, like storms and tornados, while posing significant risks for human security, destruction of housing and economic structures, and floodi...

  8. Climate change adaptation in Ethiopia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weldegebriel, Zerihun Berhane; Prowse, Martin

    Ethiopia is vulnerable to climate change due to its limited development and dependence on agriculture. Social protection schemes like the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) can play a positive role in promoting livelihoods and enhancing households’ risk management. This article examines......, they suggest the PSNP may not be helping smallholders diversify income sources in a positive manner for climate adaptation. The article concludes by arguing for further investigation of the PSNP’s influence on smallholders’ adaptation strategies....

  9. Invasive species and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, Beth A.

    2006-01-01

    Invasive species challenge managers in their work of conserving and managing natural areas and are one of the most serious problems these managers face. Because invasive species are likely to spread in response to changes in climate, managers may need to change their approaches to invasive species management accordingly.

  10. Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chance, Paul; Heward, William L.

    2010-01-01

    In "Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge," we conclude the special section by assuming that you have been persuaded by Thompson's paper or other evidence that global warming is real and poses a threat that must be dealt with, and that for now the only way to deal with it is by changing behavior. Then we ask what you, as behavior analysts, can do…

  11. Three eras of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huq, Saleemul; Toulmin, Camilla

    2006-10-15

    Climate change as a global challenge has evolved through a series of stages in the last few decades. We are now on the brink of a new era which will see the terms of the debate shift once again. The different eras are characterised by the scientific evidence, public perceptions, responses and engagement of different groups to address the problem. In the first era, from the late 1980s to 2000, climate change was seen as an “environmental” problem to do with prevention of future impacts on the planet's climate systems over the next fifty to hundred years, through reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases, known as “mitigation”. The second era can be said to have started around the turn of the millennium, with the recognition that there will be some unavoidable impacts from climate change in the near term (over the next decade or two). These impacts must be coped with through “adaptation”, as well as mitigation, to prevent much more severe and possibly catastrophic impacts in the longer term. It has become clear that many of the impacts of climate change in the near term are likely to fall on the poorest countries and communities. The third era, which we are just about to enter, will see the issue change from tackling an environmental or development problem to a question of “global justice”. It will engage with a much wider array of citizens from around the world than previous eras.

  12. Western water and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris

    2015-12-01

    The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northern-most West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries

  13. Western water and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris

    2015-12-01

    The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northern-most West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries

  14. Philosophy of climate science part II: modelling climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Frigg, Roman; Thompson, Erica; Werndl, Charlotte

    2015-01-01

    This is the second of three parts of an introduction to the philosophy of climate science. In this second part about modelling climate change, the topics of climate modelling, confirmation of climate models, the limits of climate projections, uncertainty and finally model ensembles will be discussed.

  15. Mainstreaming of Climate Change into the Ghanaian Tertiary Educational System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyarko, B. K.

    2013-12-01

    The impact of Climate Change has a far-reaching implication for economies and people living in the fragile Regions of Africa analysts project that by 2020, between 75 million and 250 million people will be exposed various forms of Climate Change Stresses. Education as a key strategy identified under Agenda 21 has been incorporated into the efforts of various educational institutions as a means of mitigating climate change and enhancing sustainability. Climate Change education offers many opportunities and benefits for educators, researchers, learners, and for wider society, but there are also many challenges, which can hinder the successful mainstreaming of climate change education. The study aims at understanding barriers for Climate Change Education in selected tertiary institutions in Ghana. The study was conducted among Geoscience Departments of the 7 main public universities of Ghana. The transcript analysis identified issues that hinders the mainstreaming of Climate Change, these includes existing levels of knowledge and understanding of the concept of climate change, appreciating the threshold concepts, ineffective teaching of Climate Change and some Departments are slow in embracing Climate Change as a discipline. Hence to develop strategies to mainstream climate change education it is important to recognise that increasing the efficiency and delivery of Climate Change education requires greater attention and coordination of activities and updating the educators knowledge and skill's. Various Ministries should be challenged to develop and integrate climate change into education policies. In the design of curriculum, there is a need to integrate Climate Change Education into curricula without compromising already overstretched programmes of study. There is a need to encourage and enhance innovative teaching approaches such as Problem-based learning (PBL) is an approach that challenges students to learn through engagement in a real problem. Institutions and

  16. Assessing urban climate change resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voskaki, Asimina

    2016-04-01

    Recent extreme weather events demonstrate that many urban environments are vulnerable to climate change impacts and as a consequence designing systems for future climate seems to be an important parameter in sustainable urban planning. The focus of this research is the development of a theoretical framework to assess climate change resilience in urban environments. The methodological approach used encompasses literature review, detailed analysis, and combination of data, and the development of a series of evaluation criteria, which are further analyzed into a list of measures. The choice of the specific measures is based upon various environmental, urban planning parameters, social, economic and institutional features taking into consideration key vulnerabilities and risk associated with climate change. The selected criteria are further prioritized to incorporate into the evaluation framework the level of importance of different issues towards a climate change resilient city. The framework could support decision making as regards the ability of an urban system to adapt. In addition it gives information on the level of adaptation, outlining barriers to sustainable urban planning and pointing out drivers for action and reaction.

  17. Market Strategies for Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J. [Business School, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2004-06-01

    The issue of climate change has attracted increasing business attention in the past decade. Whereas companies initially aimed primarily at influencing the policy debate, corporate strategies increasingly include economic responses. Existing classifications for climate change strategies however still reflect the political, non-market components. Using empirical information from the largest multinational companies worldwide, this article examines current market responses, focusing on the drivers (threats and opportunities) and the actions being taken by companies to address climate change. It also develops a typology of climate strategies that addresses the market dimensions, covering both the aim (strategic intent) and the degree of cooperation (form of organisation). The aim turns out to be either innovation or compensation, while the organisational arrangements to reach this objective can be oriented at the company level (internal), at companies' own supply chain (vertical) or at cooperation with other companies (competitors or companies in other sectors - horizontal). The typology can assist managers in deciding about the strategic option(s) they want to choose regarding climate change, also based on the insights offered by the paper about the current state of activities of other companies worldwide.

  18. Potential effects of climate change on inland glacial lakes and implications for lake-dependent biota in Wisconsin: final report April 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Michael W.; Walker, John F.; Kenow, Kevin P.; Rasmussen, Paul W.; Garrison, Paul J.; Hanson, Paul C.; Hunt, Randall J.

    2013-01-01

    The economic vitality and quality of life of many northern Wisconsin communities is closely associated with the ecological condition of the abundant water resources in the region. Climate change models predict warmer temperatures, changes to precipitation patterns, and increased evapotranspiration in the Great Lakes region. Recently (1950-2006), many regions of Wisconsin have experienced warming, and precipitation has generally increased except in far northern Wisconsin. Modeling conducted by the University of Wisconsin Nelson Environmental Institute Center for Climate Research predicts an increase in annual temperature by the middle of the 21st century of approximately 6°

  19. Climate engineering research : A precautionary response to climate change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reynolds, J.L.; Fleurke, F.M.

    2013-01-01

    In the face of dire forecasts for anthropogenic climate change, climate engineering is increasingly discussed as a possible additional set of responses to reduce climate change’s threat. These proposals have been controversial, in part because they – like climate change itself – pose uncertain risks

  20. Climate change and the ash dieback crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goberville, Eric; Hautekèete, Nina-Coralie; Kirby, Richard R.; Piquot, Yves; Luczak, Christophe; Beaugrand, Grégory

    2016-01-01

    Beyond the direct influence of climate change on species distribution and phenology, indirect effects may also arise from perturbations in species interactions. Infectious diseases are strong biotic forces that can precipitate population declines and lead to biodiversity loss. It has been shown in forest ecosystems worldwide that at least 10% of trees are vulnerable to extinction and pathogens are increasingly implicated. In Europe, the emerging ash dieback disease caused by the fungus Hymenoscyphus fraxineus, commonly called Chalara fraxinea, is causing a severe mortality of common ash trees (Fraxinus excelsior); this is raising concerns for the persistence of this widespread tree, which is both a key component of forest ecosystems and economically important for timber production. Here, we show how the pathogen and climate change may interact to affect the future spatial distribution of the common ash. Using two presence-only models, seven General Circulation Models and four emission scenarios, we show that climate change, by affecting the host and the pathogen separately, may uncouple their spatial distribution to create a mismatch in species interaction and so a lowering of disease transmission. Consequently, as climate change expands the ranges of both species polewards it may alleviate the ash dieback crisis in southern and occidental regions at the same time. PMID:27739483