WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate change implications

  1. The Implications of Climate Changes over Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mioara Chirita

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change presents a great importance in all sectors of the economy, but the agricultural sector is directly influenced by them. These changes have different causes and effects, but the agriculture is known to be a strategic and dynamic sector, which is considered also difficult and a priority of the economy. The higher crop yields guarantee prosperity, economic and financial growth for many countries in the world. The paper aims is to develop an overview on the implications of climate changes in agriculture over the last few years in Europe.

  2. Oceanic implications for climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Under the United Nations convention on the law of the sea (1982), each participating country maintains exclusive economic and environmental rights within the oceanic region extending 200 nm from its territorial sea, known as the exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Although the ocean within each EEZ is undoubtedly an anthropogenic CO2 sink, it has been over-looked within international climate policy. In this paper I use an area-weighted scaling argument to show that the inclusion of the EEZ CO2 sink within national carbon accounts would have significant implications in tracking national greenhouse commitments to any future climate change policy initiative. The advantages and disadvantages for inclusion of the EEZ CO2 sink into global climate change policy are also explored. The most compelling argument for including the EEZ CO2 sink is that it would enhance the equity and resources among coastal nations to combat and adapt against future climate change that will inherently impact coastal nations more so than land locked nations. If included, the funds raised could be used for either monitoring or adaptive coastal infrastructure among the most vulnerable nations. On the other hand, the EEZ anthropogenic CO2 sink cannot be directly controlled by human activities and could be used as a disincentive for some developed nations to reduce fossil-fuel related greenhouse gas emissions. This may therefore dampen efforts to ultimately reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. In consideration of these arguments it is therefore suggested that an 'EEZ clause' be added to Kyoto and any future international climate policy that explicitly excludes its use within national carbon accounts under these international climate frameworks

  3. Andean highlands: Implications of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Seth, Anji; Thibeault, J.M.; García, Magali

    2007-01-01

    This presentation provides background on the SANREM CRSP project "Adapting to Change in the Andean Highlands: Practices and Strategies to Address Climate and Market Risks in Vulnerable Agro-Eco Systems" and discusses the means, variability and projections for the Altiplano climate. available in SANREM office, ESIILTRA-4 (Practices and Strategies for Vulnerable Agro-Ecosystems)

  4. Environmental health implications of global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, Robert T.; Patz, Jonathan; Gubler, Duane J.; Parson, Edward A.; Vincent, James H.

    2005-07-01

    This paper reviews the background that has led to the now almost-universally held opinion in the scientific community that global climate change is occurring and is inescapably linked with anthropogenic activity. The potential implications to human health are considerable and very diverse. These include, for example, the increased direct impacts of heat and of rises in sea level, exacerbated air and water-borne harmful agents, and - associated with all the preceding - the emergence of environmental refugees. Vector-borne diseases, in particular those associated with blood-sucking arthropods such as mosquitoes, may be significantly impacted, including redistribution of some of those diseases to areas not previously affected. Responses to possible impending environmental and public health crises must involve political and socio-economic considerations, adding even greater complexity to what is already a difficult challenge. In some areas, adjustments to national and international public health practices and policies may be effective, at least in the short and medium terms. But in others, more drastic measures will be required. Environmental monitoring, in its widest sense, will play a significant role in the future management of the problem. (Author)

  5. Climate change and energy: The implications for the Spanish case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper examines the mutual implications between the climate change problem and the actual energy-at-a-crossroads situation of the unsustainable world energy model. The implications for the Spanish case are studied as a case example. The paper provides a brief review of the scientific evidence on climate change, analyzes the causes of the present energy dilemma and characterizes the problem to be addressed. The principal challenge for the future climate regime is to identify the nature and level of commitment that will provide sufficient incentives for all countries, with such a diversity of interests. The paper also exposes the most plausible framework for the future climate regime, the basic components of such a regime, the role to be played by the major stake holders and some guidelines for future negotiations. (Author)

  6. Climate Change Technology Scenarios: Energy, Emissions, and Economic Implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Placet, Marylynn; Humphreys, Kenneth K.; Mahasenan, N Maha

    2004-08-15

    This report describes three advanced technology scenarios and various illustrative cases developed by staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program. These scenarios and illustrative cases explore the energy, emissions and economic implications of using advanced energy technologies and other climate change related technologies to reduce future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The cases were modeled using the Mini Climate Assessment Model (MiniCAM) developed by PNNL. The report describes the scenarios, the specifications for the cases, and the results. The report also provides background information on current emissions of GHGs and issues associated with stabilizing GHG concentrations.

  7. Changes in Köppen-Geiger climate types under a future climate for Australia: hydrological implications

    OpenAIRE

    R. S. Crosbie; D. W. Pollock; F. S. Mpelasoka; Barron, O. V.; S. P. Charles; M. J. Donn

    2012-01-01

    The Köppen-Geiger climate classification has been used for over a century to delineate climate types across the globe. As it was developed to mimic the distribution of vegetation, it may provide a useful surrogate for making projections of the future distribution of vegetation, and hence resultant hydrological implications, under climate change scenarios. This paper developed projections of the Köppen-Geiger climate types covering the Australian continent for a 2030 and 2050 climate relative ...

  8. Changes in Köppen-Geiger climate types under a future climate for Australia: hydrological implications

    OpenAIRE

    R. S. Crosbie; D. W. Pollock; F. S. Mpelasoka; Barron, O. V.; S. P. Charles; M. J. Donn

    2012-01-01

    The Köppen-Geiger climate classification has been used for over a century to delineate climate types across the globe. As it was developed to mimic the distribution of vegetation it may provide a useful surrogate for making projections of the future distribution of vegetation, and hence resultant hydrological implications, under climate change scenarios. This paper developed projections of the Köppen-Geiger climate types covering the Australian continent for a 2030 and 2050 climate re...

  9. Changes in Köppen-Geiger climate types under a future climate for Australia: hydrological implications

    OpenAIRE

    R. S. Crosbie; D. W. Pollock; F. S. Mpelasoka; Barron, O. V.; S. P. Charles; M. J. Donn

    2012-01-01

    The Köppen-Geiger climate classification has been used for over a century to delineate climate types across the globe. As it was developed to mimic the distribution of vegetation, it may provide a useful surrogate for making projections of the future distribution of vegetation, and hence resultant hydrological implications, under climate change scenarios. This paper developed projections of the Köppen-Geiger climate types covering the Australian continent for a 2030 and 2050...

  10. Conceptualizing Climate Change in the Context of a Climate System: Implications for Climate and Environmental Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Roychoudhury, Anita; Hirsch, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Today there is much interest in teaching secondary students about climate change. Much of this effort has focused directly on students' understanding of climate change. We hypothesize, however, that in order for students to understand climate change they must first understand climate as a system and how changes to this system due to both natural…

  11. Implications of climate change on flow regime affecting Atlantic salmon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The UKCIP02 climate change scenarios (2070–2100 suggest that the UK climate will become warmer (an overall increase of 2.5–3°C, with temperature increases being greater in the summer and autumn than in the spring and winter seasons. In terms of precipitation, winters are expected to become wetter and summers drier throughout the UK. The effect of changes in the future climate on flow regimes are investigated for the Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, in a case study in an upland UK river. Using a hydraulic modelling approach, flows simulated across the catchment are assessed in terms of hydraulic characteristics (discharge per metre width, flow depths, flow velocities and Froude number. These, compared with suitable characteristics published in the literature for various life stages of Atlantic salmon, enable assessment of habitat suitability. Climate change factors have been applied to meteorological observations in the Eden catchment (north-west England and effects on the flow regime have been investigated using the SHETRAN hydrological modelling system. High flows are predicted to increase by up to 1.5%; yet, a greater impact is predicted from decreasing low flows (e.g. a Q95 at the outlet of the study catchment may decrease to a Q85 flow. Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability (RRV analysis provides a statistical indication of the extent and effect of such changes on flows. Results show that future climate will decrease the percentage time the ideal minimum physical habitat requirements will be met. In the case of suitable flow depth for spawning activity at the outlet of the catchment, the percentage time may decrease from 100% under current conditions to 94% in the future. Such changes will have implications for the species under the Habitats Directive and for catchment ecological flow management strategies.

  12. Social and governance dimensions of climate change : implications for policy

    OpenAIRE

    Foa, Roberto

    2009-01-01

    This paper addresses two vital concerns in the debate on adaptation to climate change. First, how can countries prepare to manage the impact of climate-change induced natural disasters? Second, how can countries ensure that they have the governmental institutions required to manage the phenomenal challenge of adaptation to climate change? A range of economic and institutional measures are ...

  13. Implications of climate change for Pacific Northwest forest management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A Canada/USA symposium was held to identify potential consequences of global climate change to Pacific Northwest forests; to identify the future role and relative contribution of those forests in the balance of carbon, moisture, and energy exchange of the atmosphere; and to develop recommendations for Pacific Northwest forest management strategies and policy options for responding to global climate change. Papers were presented on such topics as regional climatic change, forest responses and processes, public policy on forests and climatic change, sequestration of atmospheric carbon, forest management, and forest adaptation to climatic change. Separate abstracts have been prepared for 14 papers from this symposium

  14. Climate Change Implications For Western U.s. Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, A.; Christensen, N.; van Rheenen, N. T.; Payne, J. T.; Hamlet, A. F.; Palmer, R. N.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    Implications of climate change through the year 2098 for the hydrology of the west- ern U.S. were assessed using three ensembles from the NCAR/DOE Parallel Cli- mate Model (PCM) for a business-as-usual (BAU) global emissions scenario. The study area included three river basins, the Columbia (CRB), Sacramento-San Joaquin (SSJB) and Colorado (CORB). The archived PCM simulation outputs (monthly total precipitation and average temperature at T42 grid resolution) were first bias-corrected, disaggregated from a monthly to daily time step and then downscaled to 1/8 or 1/4 de- gree spatial resolution using the Variable Infiltration Capacity macroscale hydrology model. The hydrology model simulated streamflow at selected locations within the study domains, for three ensembles, each of length 103 years. Water resource simula- tion models in the CRB and SSJB were then used to predict, on a monthly time-step, the effects of the climate change scenarios on streamflow timing and volume. By the 2080s, the scenarios predict a warming of about 2 degrees Celsius in the PNW and CORB, and slightly higher in California. Based on the transient hydrologic simula- tions, the key results were: a) CRB hydrology was more robust to the types of changes envisioned by the scenarios than SSJB hydrology, where streamflow volumes were severely diminished during parts of the evaluation period; b) decadal-scale variations in precipitation were as large a driver of hydrologic effects as the mild increase in tem- perature; c) the temperature-driven seasonality changes found in prior climate change studies - a decline in summer streamflow and/or an increase in winter runoff - were corroborated for the SSJB, but were present to a lesser extent for the CRB and CORB; d) the climate simulations exhibit decadal-scale variability in temperature of compara- ble magnitude to the eventual warming; the compounding of the two dynamics (trend and variability) complicates understanding of hydrologic vulnerability

  15. Implications of Climate Change for Ghana’s Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Channing Arndt

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Long-run economic development in Ghana is potentially vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change given the country’s dependence on rain-fed agriculture, hydropower and unpaved rural roads. We use a computable general equilibrium model, informed by detailed sector studies, to estimate the economy-wide impacts of climate change under four climate projections. Climate change is found to always reduce national welfare, with poor and urban households and the northern Savannah zone being the worst affected. However, there is wide variation across scenarios in the size of climate impacts and in the relative importance of sectoral impact channels, thus underscoring the need for multi-sector approaches that account for climate uncertainty. Our analysis of adaptation options indicates that investing in agricultural research and extension, and improved road surfaces, are potentially cost-effective means of mitigating most of the damages from climate change in Ghana.

  16. Global climate change: Implications, challenges, and mitigation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book presents a perspective of the potential problem of global climate change induced by human activity. The editors have presented viewpoints of experts (advocates and skeptics) representing the issues of climate change. Possible results from long-term global change discussed in this book include mass migrations of plants and animals; changes in crop yields; flood and drought; and economic, political, and cultural changes. The text contains 20 chapters on the impact of global climate change and 10 chapters on the mitigation of effects and policy development

  17. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathwa

  18. Climate change impacts and implications for tourism in protected areas

    OpenAIRE

    Remus Ion Hornoiu

    2014-01-01

    Tourism, as a distinct field of activity, is strongly linked to climate change: in a positive way - by providing the necessary resources and factors to reduce the action of climate change through the use of alternative energy technologies with low environmental impact, and the controlled development of tourist flows – and a negative one – through energy consumption, visitors transportation, the quantities of waste. Among the solutions mentioned, the present research has focused on protected a...

  19. Implications of climatic change for tourism and recreation in Ontario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scenarios for climatic change associated with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide were employed in an assessment of the impacts of climate change on tourism and recreation in Ontario. A warmer climate resulting from such change may mean declining lake levels with associated changes in the ecological interest and recreational potential of wetlands, as shown by case studies on two parks near Great Lakes shorelines. In the skiing industry, the length of ski seasons will be reduced in the northern part of the province, but the key holiday periods (when a large portion of total business is conducted) should still fall within the reliable ski season. Further south, the ski season in the South Georgian Bay region could be eliminated. Summer recreational activities are likely to have extended seasons, and the viability of summer recreational enterprises may increase, with associated positive benefits to neighboring communities. 2 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

  20. Climate Change and its Implications to National Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rashid

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Climate change is increasingly one of the most serious national security threats which will have significant impacts on natural and coastal resources, ecosystem, human health and settlements, thereby affecting human wellbeing. At the same time, it is likely to influence of large scale human migration, economic and social depression over scarce natural resources and political systems necessary involve an even higher degree of uncertainty. Crucial for action is addressing climate change threats to small island states and states that are least developed, as environmental destabilization may lead to a major economic, environmental and political crisis that may not just affect these states but the world as a whole. Approach: Literatures were identified for review through a comprehensive search by using electronic and non-electronic databases. Related published literature and documents were searched in a systematic way using a range of key words relating to climate change impacts and national security. Results: The literature review indicates that climate change undermine national security dimensions by increasing environmental degradation, resources scarcity, large scale human migration as well as damage of infrastructure. The review also indicate that climate change undermine environmental dimensions by increasing sea level rise, extreme weather events, freshwater scarcity, land degradation and pollution; undermine economic dimensions by reducing access to and the quality of natural resources and human health, in addition to undermine of political dimensions with the possibility of increased environmental refugees, severe storms and failed economics. Conclusion: Reducing climate-induced threats that contributes to national security, there will need to develop an integrated approach in local and national levels and implement sustainable adaptive strategies as well as climate security.

  1. Vegetation response to climate change : implications for Canada's conservation lands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Studies have shown that Canada's national parks are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. A wide range of biophysical climate change impacts could affect the integrity of conservation lands in each region of Canada. This report examines the potential impact of climate change on landscape alterations and vegetation distribution in Canada's wide network of conservation lands. It also presents several ways to integrate climate change into existing conservation policy and adaptation strategies. Canada's conservation lands include provincial parks, migratory bird sanctuaries, national wildlife areas and wildlife protected areas. This is the first study to examine biome changes by applying an equilibrium Global Vegetation Model (GVM) to Canada's network of national park systems. Some of the policy and planning challenges posed by changes in landscape level vegetation were also addressed. The report indicates that in terms of potential changes to the biome classification of Canada's national forests, more northern biomes are projected to decrease. These northern biomes include the tundra, taiga and boreal conifer forests. 56 refs., 8 tabs., 6 figs

  2. Climate change in context: implications for livestock production and diversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change is predicted increasingly to affect the livestock sector in the coming decades, with potentially harmful consequences for production and for livestock genetic diversity. This paper considers mostly the indirect effects of climate change. It is expected that livestock production systems will face more frequent disastrous events and that higher temperatures will, in the absence of adaptive measures, increase physiological stress in livestock with negative consequences for production. Tropical breeds are often well adapted to high temperatures, but the wider diffusion of such breeds or their incorporation into breeding programmes is restricted by the limited extent to which they have been characterised and improved in structured breeding programmes, trade constraints and the difficulty involved in introducing a new breed if it possesses only one advantageous trait. It is, nonetheless, concluded that given the unpredictability of climate change and of the general development of the livestock sector, conservation of adapted breeds is important. The disruptive effects of climate change on breeds' agro-ecosystems of origin may mean that increasing attention has to be given to ex situ conservation. Exchange mechanisms are needed to ensure that if international transfers of genetic resources are required as part of adaptation strategies, they can take place efficiently and equitably. (author)

  3. Climate Change and Foodborne Illness: Implications for Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Hutchins, Franya

    2014-01-01

    Research report, lecture notes, and course outline for a freshman-level “First Year Seminar” on the topic of climate change and foodborne illness, intended to contribute to the satisfaction of the General Education requirements at Appalachian State University.

  4. Soil transmitted helminthiases: implications of climate change and human behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soil transmitted helminthiases (STH) collectively cause the highest global burden of parasitic disease after malaria and are most prevalent in the poorest communities, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change is predicted to alter the physical environment through cumulative impacts of warmin...

  5. ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE FOR WORLD AGRICULTURE

    OpenAIRE

    Tobey, James A.; John M. Reilly; Kane, Sally

    1992-01-01

    This paper challenges the hypothesis that negative yield effects in key temperate grain producing regions of the world resulting from global climate change would have a serious impact on world food production. Model results demonstrate that even with concurrent productivity losses in the major grain producing regions of the world, global warming will not seriously disrupt world agricultural markets. Country/regional crop yield changes induce interregional adjustments in production and consump...

  6. The Adaptation Of Ukraine To Climate Change Implications

    OpenAIRE

    Victoria Shtets

    2013-01-01

    The Author considers and analyzes the status of national adaptation plan preparation in Ukraine, its problems and prospects of implementation. She estimates the status of the environment and possible threats in case of inaction and explains the importance of adaptation measures implementation. Mitigation and adaptation actions in case of climate change, which Ukraine has to provide are necessary for Ukrainian economy to enhance its efficiency, competitiveness, and to reduce energy dependence,...

  7. Implications of and possible responses to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Kahiluoto, Helena; Rötter, Reimund

    2009-01-01

    Climate change is expected to worsen food insecurity and seriously undermines rural development prospects. It makes it harder to achieve the Millenium Development Goals and ensure a sustainable future beyond 2015. Findings from the recent 4th assessment report of IPCC, Working Group II indicate that already towards 2050 with respect to food crops yield losses between 10 and 30 % can be expected as compared to current conditions in large parts of Africa, including Western, Eastern and southern...

  8. Climate change implications for the glaciers of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalayan region

    OpenAIRE

    Wiltshire, A.J.

    2014-01-01

    The Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Himalaya (HKH) region has a negative average glacial mass balance for the present day despite anomalous possible gains in the Karakoram. However, changes in climate over the 21st century may influence the mass balance across the HKH. This study uses regional climate modelling to analyse the implications of unmitigated climate change on precipitation, snowfall, air temperature and accumulated positive degree days for the Hindu Kush (HK), Karakor...

  9. Climate change implications for the glaciers of the Hindu-Kush, Karakoram and Himalayan region

    OpenAIRE

    Wiltshire, A.J.

    2013-01-01

    The Hindu-Kush, Karakoram Himalaya (HKKH) region has a negative average glacial mass balance despite anomalous possible gains in the Karakoram. However, changes in climate may influence the mass balance across the HKKH. We use high resolution climate modelling to analyse the implications of unmitigated climate change on precipitation, snowfall, air temperature and accumulated degree days for the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, Jammu-Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and West Nepal regions, and East Nep...

  10. Ocean Biological Pump Sensitivities and Implications for Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanou, Anastasia

    2013-01-01

    The ocean is one of the principal reservoirs of CO2, a greenhouse gas, and therefore plays a crucial role in regulating Earth's climate. Currently, the ocean sequesters about a third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, mitigating the human impact on climate. At the same time, the deeper ocean represents the largest carbon pool in the Earth System and processes that describe the transfer of carbon from the surface of the ocean to depth are intimately linked to the effectiveness of carbon sequestration.The ocean biological pump (OBP), which involves several biogeochemical processes, is a major pathway for transfer of carbon from the surface mixed layer into the ocean interior. About 75 of the carbon vertical gradient is due to the carbon pump with only 25 attributed to the solubility pump. However, the relative importance and role of the two pumps is poorly constrained. OBP is further divided to the organic carbon pump (soft tissue pump) and the carbonate pump, with the former exporting about 10 times more carbon than the latter through processes like remineralization.Major uncertainties about OBP, and hence in the carbon uptake and sequestration, stem from uncertainties in processes involved in OBP such as particulate organicinorganic carbon sinkingsettling, remineralization, microbial degradation of DOC and uptakegrowth rate changes of the ocean biology. The deep ocean is a major sink of atmospheric CO2 in scales of hundreds to thousands of years, but how the export efficiency (i.e. the fraction of total carbon fixation at the surface that is transported at depth) is affected by climate change remains largely undetermined. These processes affect the ocean chemistry (alkalinity, pH, DIC, particulate and dissolved organic carbon) as well as the ecology (biodiversity, functional groups and their interactions) in the ocean. It is important to have a rigorous, quantitative understanding of the uncertainties involved in the observational measurements, the models and the

  11. Implications of small modular reactors for climate change mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Achieving climate policy targets will require large-scale deployment of low-carbon energy technologies, including nuclear power. The small modular reactor (SMR) is viewed as a possible solution to the problems of energy security as well as climate change. In this paper, we use an integrated assessment model (IAM) to investigate the evolution of a global energy portfolio with SMRs under a stringent climate policy. Technology selection in the model is based on costs; we use results from previous expert elicitation studies of SMR costs. We find that the costs of achieving a 2 °C target are lower with SMRs than without. The costs are higher when large reactors do not compete for market share compared to a world in which they can compete freely. When both SMRs and large reactors compete for market share, reduction in mitigation cost is achieved only under advanced assumptions about SMR technology costs and future cost improvements. While the availability of SMRs could lower mitigation costs by a moderate amount, actual realization of these benefits would depend on the rapid up-scaling of SMRs in the near term. Such rapid deployment could be limited by several social, institutional and behavioral obstacles. - Highlights: • Costs of achieving a 2 °C target are lower with SMRs than without. • Costs are higher when large reactors do not compete for market share. • Under competition, cost is reduced only with advanced SMR technology. • Realization of benefits will depend on rapid near term up-scaling of SMRs

  12. Implications of climate change for skin cancer prevention in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makin, Jen

    2011-12-01

    It is estimated that nearly 450,000 Australians get skin cancer every year. Ultraviolet (UV) radiation from sunlight has been identified as the cause of more than 95% of skin cancers in Australia. Accordingly, the focus of skin cancer prevention programs is reducing exposure to UV radiation. In Victoria, improvements in sun protection behaviours and reductions in sunburn and melanoma incidence rates among younger people have been observed since the SunSmart program was established in 1988. However, climate change has the potential to undermine these successes. First, surface UVB radiation is dependent on stratospheric total ozone amounts. While signs of impact of international restrictions on the production of ozone-depleting substances have been observed, improvements have not yet returned ozone to pre-1970s levels. Interactions between ozone depletion and climate change may slow the recovery of the ozone layer and compound increases in UV radiation at some latitudes. Before recovery, it is expected that higher levels of UV radiation will continue in most Australian regions, with an associated higher risk of skin cancer. Indeed, recent data show increases in surface UV radiation throughout Australia since the 1970s. Second, mean temperatures in Australia have increased over the past 30 years and are projected to rise further by 2030. Australian data shows that with higher temperatures, adults spend more time outdoors, are less likely to wear covering clothing and more likely to be sunburnt. Hence, rising temperatures can be expected to result in increases in sun exposure, sunburn and correspondingly, skin cancer risk. PMID:22518918

  13. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, or ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. Climate ...

  14. Implications of shale gas development for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newell, Richard G; Raimi, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Advances in technologies for extracting oil and gas from shale formations have dramatically increased U.S. production of natural gas. As production expands domestically and abroad, natural gas prices will be lower than without shale gas. Lower prices have two main effects: increasing overall energy consumption, and encouraging substitution away from sources such as coal, nuclear, renewables, and electricity. We examine the evidence and analyze modeling projections to understand how these two dynamics affect greenhouse gas emissions. Most evidence indicates that natural gas as a substitute for coal in electricity production, gasoline in transport, and electricity in buildings decreases greenhouse gases, although as an electricity substitute this depends on the electricity mix displaced. Modeling suggests that absent substantial policy changes, increased natural gas production slightly increases overall energy use, more substantially encourages fuel-switching, and that the combined effect slightly alters economy wide GHG emissions; whether the net effect is a slight decrease or increase depends on modeling assumptions including upstream methane emissions. Our main conclusions are that natural gas can help reduce GHG emissions, but in the absence of targeted climate policy measures, it will not substantially change the course of global GHG concentrations. Abundant natural gas can, however, help reduce the costs of achieving GHG reduction goals. PMID:24754840

  15. Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, James E; Sato, Makiko

    2011-01-01

    Paleoclimate data help us assess climate sensitivity and potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods of the past million years was less than 1{\\deg}C warmer than in the Holocene. Polar warmth in these interglacials and in the Pliocene does not imply that a substantial cushion remains between today's climate and dangerous warming, but rather that Earth is poised to experience strong amplifying polar feedbacks in response to moderate global w...

  16. Climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naia Morueta-Holme

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus, which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate, topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070-2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species' range. However, the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably, if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant, G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be

  17. IMPLICATIONS of CLIMATE CHANGE in NEPAL and ELSEWHERE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Meen B. Poudyal Chhetri

    2013-01-01

    气候变化给人类生活和环境带来不利影响,已经成为全世界关注的重要问题。喜马拉雅地区的冰川面积几乎覆盖了33,000 km2,由于气候变化,冰川消退正在加速。随着冰川融化,冰川形成冰川湖的泛滥,导致了洪水和山体滑坡,摧毁了下游的村庄和农作物。这就是13亿人口赖以为生的亚洲9大河流需要防洪的重要原因。在非洲、南太平洋、北极、北美洲、南美洲、欧洲和南极洲,冰川也在消失。过去100 a的世界平均气温比过去10000 a上升得都快。21世纪末,全球平均气温预计将提高1.4~5.8℃。令人担忧的是,引起气候变化和全球变暖的主要原因是人类活动的温室气体排放。特别是,在喜马拉雅地区的气候变暖已经高于全球平均水平,导致降雨增加和减少2个格局的出现。天气模式变得更加变幻莫测--旱季干旱和雨季多雨。这种现象造成了长期供水总量减少,影响长期粮食安全和人民的生命和生计。科学事实证明,由于人为排放的CO2和其他吸热气体,全球变暖正在发生,地球正在迅速变暖。应对气候变化,需采取必要的措施使全球变暖控制在容忍的范围内。决策者必须通过立法实现零碳排放产业的转型,创造有利的市场条件,塑造新的框架变革,执行世界上主要的法律工具“京都议定书”, ;以应对全球变暖。因此,需要共同努力,减少CO2排放量,增加使用可再生能源和实施节约能源措施。%Climate change has become a very serious worldwide concern because of its adverse effects in livelihood and environment. Glaciers are receding rapidly in the Himalayan region which has the major portion of glaciers that cover up almost 33,000 km2. Climate change is the main factor behind accelerated glacier retreat. As glaciers melt, many glaciers form glacial lakes that can break and cause lfoods and

  18. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Urban Flooding: Implications for Transportation Infrastructure and Travel Disruption

    OpenAIRE

    Chang, Heejun; Lafrenz, Martin; Jung, II-Won; Figliozzi, Miguell; Platman, Deena

    2009-01-01

    Climate change in the Pacific Northwest of America is likely to bring more frequent, heavier winter precipitation as temperature rises. These changes in precipitation patterns have significant implications in hydrology and socioeconomic sectors that could be affected by changes in hydrology. Transportation infrastructure and travel patterns are also vulnerable to potential changes in runoff regimes and stream geomorphology. The 2006 and 2007 winter storms resulted in massive flooding, causing...

  19. Rapid Climate Change and Implications for Habitability on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, R. P.

    2012-12-01

    under high-obliquity conditions. The Martian crustal dichotomy is unfavorable for a global water cycle, because the pole-to-pole slope would tend to move water to high latitudes. Freezing of the Borealis basin and cold trapping in the south may provide a mechanism for geologically abrupt changes in climate that are suggested by the lack of dissection or segmentation of most alluvial fan and delta surfaces.

  20. Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    Hansen, James E

    2011-01-01

    Milankovic climate oscillations help define climate sensitivity and assess potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods was less than 1{\\deg}C warmer than in the Holocene. Goals to limit human-made warming to 2{\\deg}C and CO2 to 450 ppm are not sufficient -- they are prescriptions for disaster. Polar warmth in prior interglacials and the Pliocene does not imply that a significant cushion remains between today's climate and dangerous warming, but rather that Earth today is poised to experience strong amplifying polar feedbacks in response to moderate additional warming. Deglaciation, disintegration of ice sheets, is nonlinear, spurred by amplifying feedbacks. If warming reaches a level that forces deglaciation, the rate of sea level rise will depend on the doubling time for ice sheet mass loss. Satellite gravity data, though too brief to be conclusive, are consistent with a doubling time of 10 years or less, implying the possibility of multi-meter sea level r...

  1. Climate change implications for the glaciers of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalayan region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiltshire, A. J.

    2014-05-01

    The Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Himalaya (HKH) region has a negative average glacial mass balance for the present day despite anomalous possible gains in the Karakoram. However, changes in climate over the 21st century may influence the mass balance across the HKH. This study uses regional climate modelling to analyse the implications of unmitigated climate change on precipitation, snowfall, air temperature and accumulated positive degree days for the Hindu Kush (HK), Karakoram (KK), Jammu-Kashmir (JK), Himachal Pradesh and West Nepal regions (HP), and East Nepal and Bhutan (NB). The analysis focuses on the climate drivers of change rather than the glaciological response. Presented is a complex regional pattern of climate change, with a possible increase in snowfall over the western HKH and decreases in the east. Accumulated degree days are less spatially variable than precipitation and show an increase in potential ablation in all regions combined with increases in the length of the seasonal melt period. From the projected change in regional climate the possible implications for future glacier mass balance are inferred. Overall, within the modelling framework used here the eastern Himalayan glaciers (Nepal-Bhutan) are the most vulnerable to climate change due to the decreased snowfall and increased ablation associated with warming. The eastern glaciers are therefore projected to decline over the 21st Century despite increasing precipitation. The western glaciers (Hindu Kush, Karakoram) are expected to decline at a slower rate over the 21st century in response to unmitigated climate compared to the glaciers of the east. Importantly, regional climate change is highly uncertain, especially in important cryospheric drivers such as snowfall timing and amounts, which are poorly constrained by observations. Data are available from the author on request.

  2. Rural Households’ Adaptation to Climate Change and its Implications for Policy Designs in Lijiang, China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zheng, Yuan

    As challenges and opportunities induced by climate change become increasingly manifested, adaptation strategies to these changes have received growing attention. While earlier studies focus on quantifying impacts of climate change or adaptation potential, empirical studies have been increasingly...... emphasised to document localised and actual adaptation practices. Although the latter has made important contributions to investigating people’s perceptions and interpretations of climate change, examining individual and collective climate responses as well as determinants of and barriers to adaptation....... The thesis, carried out in three mountain villages in southwest China, seeks to advance the understanding of local adaptation process and its implications for vulnerability and policy designs. In particular, the research contributes to quantitative assessment of current and forward-looking adaptation...

  3. Climate Change Implications to Vegetation Production in Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neigh, Christopher S.R.

    2008-01-01

    Investigation of long-term meteorological satellite data revealed statistically significant vegetation response to climate drivers of temperature, precipitation and solar radiation with exclusion of fire disturbance in Alaska. Abiotic trends were correlated to satellite remote sensing observations of normalized difference vegetation index to understand biophysical processes that could impact ecosystem carbon storage. Warming resulted in disparate trajectories for vegetation growth due to precipitation and photosynthetically active radiation variation. Interior spruce forest low lands in late summer through winter had precipitation deficit which resulted in extensive fire disturbance and browning of undisturbed vegetation with reduced post-fire recovery while Northern slope moist alpine tundra had increased production due to warmer-wetter conditions during the late 1990s and early 2000s. Coupled investigation of Alaska s vegetation response to warming climate found spatially dynamic abiotic processes with vegetation browning not a result from increased fire disturbance.

  4. Socio-economic changes, social capital and implications for climate change in a changing rural Nepal

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Byg, Anja; Herslund, Lise Byskov

    2016-01-01

    what circumstances people can make use of their ties. The use of different kinds of ties varies with context and is not as clear cut as suggested in the literature. For example families closer to the city are in a better position to take advantage of new opportunities. Using a combination of ties...... people have engaged in high-input agriculture, business and paid employment. Diversification of livelihoods has made many people less sensitive to climate change, but this does not translate into decreased vulnerability for the community. Intensive agriculture and lower community cohesion seems...

  5. Will Global Climate Change Alter Fundamental Human Immune Reactivity: Implications for Child Health?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashwin Swaminathan

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The human immune system is an interface across which many climate change sensitive exposures can affect health outcomes. Gaining an understanding of the range of potential effects that climate change could have on immune function will be of considerable importance, particularly for child health, but has, as yet, received minimal research attention. We postulate several mechanisms whereby climate change sensitive exposures and conditions will subtly impair aspects of the human immune response, thereby altering the distribution of vulnerability within populations—particularly for children—to infection and disease. Key climate change-sensitive pathways include under-nutrition, psychological stress and exposure to ambient ultraviolet radiation, with effects on susceptibility to infection, allergy and autoimmune diseases. Other climate change sensitive exposures may also be important and interact, either additively or synergistically, to alter health risks. Conducting directed research in this area is imperative as the potential public health implications of climate change-induced weakening of the immune system at both individual and population levels are profound. This is particularly relevant for the already vulnerable children of the developing world, who will bear a disproportionate burden of future adverse environmental and geopolitical consequences of climate change.

  6. Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, A.D.; Chapin, F. S., III; Walsh, J.E.; Wirth, C.

    2006-01-01

    The Arctic is a key part of the global climate system because the net positive energy input to the tropics must ultimately be resolved through substantial energy losses in high-latitude regions. The Arctic influences the global climate system through both positive and negative feedbacks that involve physical, ecological, and human systems of the Arctic. The balance of evidence suggests that positive feedbacks to global warming will likely dominate in the Arctic during the next 50 to 100 years. However, the negative feedbacks associated with changing the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean might abruptly launch the planet into another glacial period on longer timescales. In light of uncertainties and the vulnerabilities of the climate system to responses in the Arctic, it is important that we improve our understanding of how integrated regional changes in the Arctic will likely influence the evolution of the global climate system. Copyright ?? 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

  7. Climate Change Implications to Vegetation Production in Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neigh, C. S.

    2008-12-01

    Investigation of long-term NOAA series of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from 1982 through 2005 revealed statistically significant vegetation response to climate drivers of temperature, precipitation and solar radiation with exclusion of fire disturbance. Abiotic trends were calculated and correlated to satellite remote sensing observations of vegetation productivity to understand biophysical processes that could impact ecosystem carbon storage. Warming throughout Alaska resulted in disparate trajectories for vegetation growth due to precipitation and photosynthetically active radiation variation. Interior spruce forest low lands in late summer had precipitation deficit which resulted in extensive fire disturbance and browning of undisturbed vegetation with reduced post-fire recovery in burned sites; while Northern slope alpine and moist tundra had increased production due to warmer-wetter conditions during the late 1990s and early 2000s. Coupled investigation of vegetation's response to warming climate in Alaska found spatially dynamic processes with and without fire disturbance observed from coarse resolution satellite instruments. Future effort will simulate carbon cycle process with fire disturbance to understand spatially variant source-sink distribution of Alaskan ecosystems.

  8. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... can be caused by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. Climate change can affect our health. It can lead to More heat-related illness ...

  9. Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment in the United States and Implications for Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.

    2012-01-01

    As an integral part of the National Climate Assessment (NCA), technical assessment reports for 13 regions in the U.S. that describe the scientific rationale to support climate change impacts within the purview of these regions, and provide adaptation or mitigation measures in response to these impacts. These technical assessments focus on climate change impacts on sectors that are important environmental, biophysical, and social and economic aspects of sustainability within the U.S.: Climate change science, Ecosystems and biodiversity, Water resources, Human health, Energy supply and use, Water/energy/land use, Transportation, Urban/infrastructure/vulnerability, Agriculture, Impacts of climate change on tribal/indigenous and native lands and resources, Forestry, Land use/land cover change, Rural communities development, and Impacts on biogeochemical cycles, with implications for ecosystems and biodiversity. There is a critical and timely need for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies in response to climate change by the policy and decision making communities, to insure resiliency and sustainability of the built environment in the future.

  10. Socio-economic implications of climate change: Canadian climate impacts program study results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A review is presented of results of the Canadian Climate Impacts Program series of studies examining the socio-economic impacts of climate change. In the Great Lakes basin, climate change may impact on numerous economic sectors. Lower lake levels could result in increased dredging of ports and channels or reduced cargo loads. Lower lake levels added to increased use of water could result in a loss of 4,165 GWh of power generation for the Canadian hydro-electric generating stations on the Great Lakes. A warmer climate may lead to crop failures in the agricultural heartlands of Ontario, as the advantages of higher temperature may be offset by moisture stress. The downhill ski industry may be decimated in southern Ontario. Rising sea levels may cause increased risk of storm surges and river flooding in the coastal areas of Canada. A warmer climate would probably be beneficial to aquaculture and allow longer inshore fishing seasons. Costs to oil and gas exploration due to sea ice and icebergs would be practically eliminated. Results for the Praire provinces were mixed: one study concluded that impacts would be minimal while another predicted a moderate reduction in spring wheat potential. 24 refs., 1 fig

  11. The Implications of Global Climate Change for Mountain Gorilla Conservation

    OpenAIRE

    Belfiore, Natalia; Seimon, Anton; Picton Phillips, Guy; Basabose, Augustin; Gray, Maryke; Masinde, Isabella; Elliott, Joanna; Thorne, James H.; Seo, Chang Wan; Muruthi, Philip

    2015-01-01

    Efforts in biodiversity conservation have long embraced the task of reducing the impactsof the stressors imposed by anthropogenic and environmental changes. In the past, moststressors have been either on-going but gradual or incremental, such as pollution ordeforestation, or one-time catastrophic events, such as large oil spills, or a severe drought. Theprevailing conservation principle has been to plan for a static protected area or series of protectedareas, with the goal of preserving impor...

  12. Climate change implications for the glaciers of the Hindu-Kush, Karakoram and Himalayan region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Wiltshire

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The Hindu-Kush, Karakoram Himalaya (HKKH region has a negative average glacial mass balance despite anomalous possible gains in the Karakoram. However, changes in climate may influence the mass balance across the HKKH. We use high resolution climate modelling to analyse the implications of unmitigated climate change on precipitation, snowfall, air temperature and accumulated degree days for the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, Jammu-Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and West Nepal regions, and East Nepal and Bhutan. In our analysis we focus on the climate drivers of change rather than the glaciological response. We find a complex regional response to climate change, with possible increases in snowfall over the western HKKH and decreases in the east. Accumulated degree days are less spatially variable than precipitation and show an increase in potential ablation in all regions. Overall, the eastern Himalayan glaciers are expected to be most sensitive to climate change due to the decreases in snowfall and increased ablation associated with warming. The eastern glaciers are therefore projected to decline over the 21st century despite increasing precipitation. The western glaciers are expected to decline at a slower rate over the 21st century as a response to unmitigated climate compared to the glaciers of the east. Importantly, the glacier response depends on important glaciological factors, such as the extent of debris cover, which may be of critical importance in moderating the response to climatic change. Decadal variability has a large effect highlighting the need for long-term observation records to fully understand the impact of climate on the glaciers of the HKKH cryosphere. Spatial variability in projected snowfall patterns are likely to be a key driver of glacier mass balance over the 21st century. Importantly, the regional trends in snowfall do not necessarily follow the trends in precipitation. A key change in the HKKH cryosphere is a switch from snowfall

  13. Climate change implications for the glaciers of the Hindu-Kush, Karakoram and Himalayan region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiltshire, A. J.

    2013-07-01

    The Hindu-Kush, Karakoram Himalaya (HKKH) region has a negative average glacial mass balance despite anomalous possible gains in the Karakoram. However, changes in climate may influence the mass balance across the HKKH. We use high resolution climate modelling to analyse the implications of unmitigated climate change on precipitation, snowfall, air temperature and accumulated degree days for the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, Jammu-Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and West Nepal regions, and East Nepal and Bhutan. In our analysis we focus on the climate drivers of change rather than the glaciological response. We find a complex regional response to climate change, with possible increases in snowfall over the western HKKH and decreases in the east. Accumulated degree days are less spatially variable than precipitation and show an increase in potential ablation in all regions. Overall, the eastern Himalayan glaciers are expected to be most sensitive to climate change due to the decreases in snowfall and increased ablation associated with warming. The eastern glaciers are therefore projected to decline over the 21st century despite increasing precipitation. The western glaciers are expected to decline at a slower rate over the 21st century as a response to unmitigated climate compared to the glaciers of the east. Importantly, the glacier response depends on important glaciological factors, such as the extent of debris cover, which may be of critical importance in moderating the response to climatic change. Decadal variability has a large effect highlighting the need for long-term observation records to fully understand the impact of climate on the glaciers of the HKKH cryosphere. Spatial variability in projected snowfall patterns are likely to be a key driver of glacier mass balance over the 21st century. Importantly, the regional trends in snowfall do not necessarily follow the trends in precipitation. A key change in the HKKH cryosphere is a switch from snowfall to rainfall in the

  14. Implications of the Hidden Spatiotemporal Vulnerability of US Building Energy Demand to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, J.; Gurney, K. R.

    2015-12-01

    Energy consumption in US buildings, accounting for 41% of primary energy consumption in 2010, is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to the direct relationship between space heating/cooling and outside temperature. Past assessments of climate change impacts on building energy consumption have neglected spatial variations in the "balance point" temperature and the extremes at smaller spatiotemporal scales, making the implications of local-scale vulnerability incomplete. Here we develop state-specific empirical relationships between building energy consumption and temperature to explore the vulnerability of building energy supply and demand under climate change. We find increases in summertime electricity demand exceeding 20% and decreases in wintertime non-electric energy demand of more than 30% in some states by the end of the century. When examined annually at the national scale, these extremes are hidden by numerical cancellation. The financial implications vary spatially with increases in total net building energy expenditures in some states (as much as 3 billion/year) while in others, costs decline (as much as 1 billion/year). Integrated across the contiguous US, these variations result in a net savings of roughly 1.4 billion/year. However, this must be weighed against the cost of adding electricity generation capacity ranging from 13.9 billion/year to 52.2 billion/year in order to maintain the electricity grid's reliability in summer. These results have wide implications for climate policy, the social cost of carbon and energy supply planning. It also demonstrates the importance of representing the climate change impacts on energy consumption at scales relevant to human decisions and actions.Energy consumption in US buildings, accounting for 41% of primary energy consumption in 2010, is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to the direct relationship between space heating/cooling and outside temperature. Past assessments of climate change

  15. 180,000 Years of Climate Change in Europe: Avifaunal Responses and Vegetation Implications

    OpenAIRE

    Sandra Ravnsbæk Holm; Jens-Christian Svenning

    2014-01-01

    Providing an underutilized source of information for paleoenvironmental reconstructions, birds are rarely used to infer paleoenvironments despite their well-known ecology and extensive Quaternary fossil record. Here, we use the avian fossil record to investigate how Western Palearctic bird assemblages and species ranges have changed across the latter part of the Pleistocene, with focus on the links to climate and the implications for vegetation structure. As a key issue we address the full-gl...

  16. Climate Change Implications for the Operation of Called Upon Flood Control in the Columbia River Basin

    OpenAIRE

    Yuan, Jingyao

    2014-01-01

    Negotiated over 60 years ago and ratified in 1964, the Columbia River Treaty (CRT or "the Treaty"), is often looked to as the standard for cross-jurisdictional water management. A crucial aspect of the Treaty is the governance of water flows to minimize downstream flooding. Climate change directly impacts the hydrology of the Columbia River, which has implications for activities such as power generation and flood control management. The Treaty needs to be modernized to incorporate the effe...

  17. Global patterns of distribution in stream detritivores: implications for biodiversity loss in changing climates

    OpenAIRE

    Boyero, Luz; Pearson, R G; Dudgeon, D; Ferreira, V.; Graça, M.A.S.; Gessner, M. O.; Boulton, A J; Chauvet, E.; Yule, C.M.; Albariño, R.J.; Ramírez, A.; Helson, J.E.; M. Callisto; M. Arunachalam; Chará, J.

    2012-01-01

    Aim We tested the hypothesis that shredder detritivores, a key trophic guild in stream ecosystems, are more diverse at higher latitudes, which has important ecological implications in the face of potential biodiversity losses that are expected as a result of climate change. We also explored the dependence of local shredder diversity on the regional species pool across latitudes, and examined the influence of environmental factors on shredder diversity. Location World-wide (156 sites from 17 r...

  18. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The indicators in this bulletin are part of a national set of environmental indicators designed to provide a profile of the state of Canada's environment and measure progress towards sustainable development. A review of potential impacts on Canada shows that such changes would have wide-ranging implications for its economic sectors, social well-being including human health, and ecological systems. This document looks at the natural state of greenhouse gases which help regulate the Earth's climate. Then it looks at human influence and what is being done about it. The document then examines some indicators: Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use; global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases; and global and Canadian temperature variations

  19. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined and...... evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change and...... illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  20. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  1. Multiple stressors, nonlinear effects and the implications of climate change impacts on marine coastal ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewitt, Judi E; Ellis, Joanne I; Thrush, Simon F

    2016-08-01

    Global climate change will undoubtedly be a pressure on coastal marine ecosystems, affecting not only species distributions and physiology but also ecosystem functioning. In the coastal zone, the environmental variables that may drive ecological responses to climate change include temperature, wave energy, upwelling events and freshwater inputs, and all act and interact at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. To date, we have a poor understanding of how climate-related environmental changes may affect coastal marine ecosystems or which environmental variables are likely to produce priority effects. Here we use time series data (17 years) of coastal benthic macrofauna to investigate responses to a range of climate-influenced variables including sea-surface temperature, southern oscillation indices (SOI, Z4), wind-wave exposure, freshwater inputs and rainfall. We investigate responses from the abundances of individual species to abundances of functional traits and test whether species that are near the edge of their tolerance to another stressor (in this case sedimentation) may exhibit stronger responses. The responses we observed were all nonlinear and some exhibited thresholds. While temperature was most frequently an important predictor, wave exposure and ENSO-related variables were also frequently important and most ecological variables responded to interactions between environmental variables. There were also indications that species sensitive to another stressor responded more strongly to weaker climate-related environmental change at the stressed site than the unstressed site. The observed interactions between climate variables, effects on key species or functional traits, and synergistic effects of additional anthropogenic stressors have important implications for understanding and predicting the ecological consequences of climate change to coastal ecosystems. PMID:26648483

  2. Implications of incorporating air-quality co-benefits into climate change policymaking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We present an analysis of the barriers and opportunities for incorporating air quality co-benefits into climate policy assessments. It is well known that many strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions also decrease emissions of health-damaging air pollutants and precursor species, including particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide. In a survey of previous studies we found a range of estimates for the air quality co-benefits of climate change mitigation of $2- 196/tCO2 with a mean of $49/tCO2, and the highest co-benefits found in developing countries. These values, although of a similar order of magnitude to abatement cost estimates, are only rarely included in integrated assessments of climate policy. Full inclusion of these co-benefits would have pervasive implications for climate policy in areas including: optimal policy stringency, overall costs, distributional effects, robustness to discount rates, incentives for international cooperation, and the value of adaptation, forests, and climate engineering relative to mitigation. Under-valuation results in part from uncertainty in climatic damages, valuation inconsistency, and institutional barriers. Because policy debates are framed in terms of cost minimization, policy makers are unlikely to fully value air quality co-benefits unless they can be compared on an equivalent basis with the benefits of avoided climatic damages. While air quality co-benefits have been prominently portrayed as a hedge against uncertainty in the benefits of climate change abatement, this assessment finds that full inclusion of co-benefits depends on-rather than substitutes for-better valuation of climate damages.

  3. Evidence and implications of recent and projected climate change in Alaska's forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolken, Jane M.; Hollingsworth, Teresa N.; Rupp, T. Scott; Chapin, Stuart III; Trainor, Sarah F.; Barrett, Tara M.; Sullivan, Patrick F.; McGuire, A. David; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Hennon, Paul E.; Beever, Erik A.; Conn, Jeff S.; Crone, Lisa K.; D'Amore, David V.; Fresco, Nancy; Hanley, Thomas A.; Kielland, Knut; Kruse, James J.; Patterson, Trista; Schuur, Edward A.G.; Verbyla, David L.; Yarie, John

    2011-01-01

    The structure and function of Alaska's forests have changed significantly in response to a changing climate, including alterations in species composition and climate feedbacks (e.g., carbon, radiation budgets) that have important regional societal consequences and human feedbacks to forest ecosystems. In this paper we present the first comprehensive synthesis of climate-change impacts on all forested ecosystems of Alaska, highlighting changes in the most critical biophysical factors of each region. We developed a conceptual framework describing climate drivers, biophysical factors and types of change to illustrate how the biophysical and social subsystems of Alaskan forests interact and respond directly and indirectly to a changing climate. We then identify the regional and global implications to the climate system and associated socio-economic impacts, as presented in the current literature. Projections of temperature and precipitation suggest wildfire will continue to be the dominant biophysical factor in the Interior-boreal forest, leading to shifts from conifer- to deciduous-dominated forests. Based on existing research, projected increases in temperature in the Southcentral- and Kenai-boreal forests will likely increase the frequency and severity of insect outbreaks and associated wildfires, and increase the probability of establishment by invasive plant species. In the Coastal-temperate forest region snow and ice is regarded as the dominant biophysical factor. With continued warming, hydrologic changes related to more rapidly melting glaciers and rising elevation of the winter snowline will alter discharge in many rivers, which will have important consequences for terrestrial and marine ecosystem productivity. These climate-related changes will affect plant species distribution and wildlife habitat, which have regional societal consequences, and trace-gas emissions and radiation budgets, which are globally important. Our conceptual framework facilitates

  4. Response of the boreal forest ecosystem to climatic change and its silvicultural implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kellomaeki, S.; Haenninen, H.; Karjalainen, T. [Joensuu Univ. (Finland). Faculty of Forestry] [and others

    1996-12-31

    During the next 100 years, the mean annual temperature is expected to be 1-6 deg C higher than at present. It is also expected to be accompanied by a lengthening of the thermal growing season and increased precipitation. Consequently, climatic change will increase the uncertainty of the management of forest ecosystems in the future. In this context, this research project aimed to outline the ecological and silvicultural implications of climatic change with regard to (1) how the expected climatic change might modify the functioning and structure of the boreal forest ecosystem, and (2) how the silvicultural management of the forest ecosystem should be modified in order to maintain sustainable forest yield under changing climatic conditions. The experimental component of the project concerned first the effect that elevating temperature and elevating concentration of atmospheric carbon have on the ontogenetic development of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L) and on the subsequent increase in frost damage during winter. The second part of the study looked the effect of elevating temperature and elevating concentration of atmospheric carbon on the growth of Scots pine through photosynthesis, respiration, transpiration, nutrient supply, and changes in crown structure. This experiment was utilised in several subprojects of the overall project

  5. Land use changes and its climatic implications in Northern Italy during the Dark Ages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oeggl, Klaus; Oeggl-Wahlmüller, Notburga; Festi, Daniela; Zagermann, Marcus

    2016-04-01

    Here we present an interdisciplinary study on land use changes in Northern Italy at the transition from the Roman Empire to the Early Middle Ages. The combination of archaeological data and high-resolution pollen analyses carried out in the Fiavè basin (Trentino) provide a detailed insight in socio-economic changes and its implications with climate in the Dark Ages. The vegetation in this area is dominated up to 1000 m by submediterranian trees like Fraxinus ornus and Ostrya carpinifolia, superseded by a mixed Fagus and Abies forest with variable amounts of Picea abies. Since 2008 archaeological surveys in the Fiavè basin as well as excavations conducted on a fortified hill-top settlement (castrum) in 985m register the settlement development of this settlement cluster and reveal an almost continuous occupation from Roman to Early Medieval Times. In addition a high-resolution pollen record from a 1.30 m thick peat sequence of the bog "Palude di Fiave" discloses four main phases: (1) in the Late Iron Age high amounts of arboreal pollen and the spread of Abies demonstrate a decrease in settlement activity suggested by wetter climate conditions. (2) During the Roman Empire a phase with arable farming in the basin starts. Olea, Juglans and Castanea sativa are introduced and document the onset of horticulture in this region. (3) After 300 AD - during the Migration Period - the wet and cool conditions have had poor impact on settlement activity. Agricultural (Cerealia) and nitrophilous indicators (Plantago, Chenopodiaceae, Urticaceae) are continuously proved. However a change within the cultivated crops in relation to the climate conditions is observed. Subsequently a progressive recovery of Pinus followed by Abies and Fagus marks the climatic improvement at the beginning of the Early Medieval Times. (4) The time from 600 to 800 AD is characterized by increasing frequency and diversity of anthropogenic-related indicators. The implications of these land use changes with

  6. Changes in vegetation in northern Alaska under scenarios of climate change, 2003-2100: implications for climate feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; McGuire, Anthony David; Chapin, F. Stuart, III; Yi, S.; Thompson, Catharine Copass

    2009-01-01

    Assessing potential future changes in arctic and boreal plant species productivity, ecosystem composition, and canopy complexity is essential for understanding environmental responses under expected altered climate forcing. We examined potential changes in the dominant plant functional types (PFTs) of the sedge tundra, shrub tundra, and boreal forest ecosystems in ecotonal northern Alaska, USA, for the years 2003–2100. We compared energy feedbacks associated with increases in biomass to energy feedbacks associated with changes in the duration of the snow-free season. We based our simulations on nine input climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a new version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) that incorporates biogeochemistry, vegetation dynamics for multiple PFTs (e.g., trees, shrubs, grasses, sedges, mosses), multiple vegetation pools, and soil thermal regimes. We found mean increases in net primary productivity (NPP) in all PFTs. Most notably, birch (Betula spp.) in the shrub tundra showed increases that were at least three times larger than any other PFT. Increases in NPP were positively related to increases in growing-season length in the sedge tundra, but PFTs in boreal forest and shrub tundra showed a significant response to changes in light availability as well as growing-season length. Significant NPP responses to changes in vegetation uptake of nitrogen by PFT indicated that some PFTs were better competitors for nitrogen than other PFTs. While NPP increased, heterotrophic respiration (RH) also increased, resulting in decreases or no change in net ecosystem carbon uptake. Greater aboveground biomass from increased NPP produced a decrease in summer albedo, greater regional heat absorption (0.34 ± 0.23 W·m−2·10 yr−1 [mean ± SD]), and a positive feedback to climate warming. However, the decrease in albedo due to a shorter snow season (−5.1 ± 1.6 d/10 yr) resulted in much greater regional heat

  7. Changes in vegetation in northern Alaska under scenarios of climate change, 2003-2100: implications for climate feedbacks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Euskirchen, E S; McGuire, A D; Chapin, F S; Yi, S; Thompson, C C

    2009-06-01

    Assessing potential future changes in arctic and boreal plant species productivity, ecosystem composition, and canopy complexity is essential for understanding environmental responses under expected altered climate forcing. We examined potential changes in the dominant plant functional types (PFTs) of the sedge tundra, shrub tundra, and boreal forest ecosystems in ecotonal northern Alaska, USA, for the years 2003-2100. We compared energy feedbacks associated with increases in biomass to energy feedbacks associated with changes in the duration of the snow-free season. We based our simulations on nine input climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a new version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) that incorporates biogeochemistry, vegetation dynamics for multiple PFTs (e.g., trees, shrubs, grasses, sedges, mosses), multiple vegetation pools, and soil thermal regimes. We found mean increases in net primary productivity (NPP) in all PFTs. Most notably, birch (Betula spp.) in the shrub tundra showed increases that were at least three times larger than any other PFT. Increases in NPP were positively related to increases in growing-season length in the sedge tundra, but PFTs in boreal forest and shrub tundra showed a significant response to changes in light availability as well as growing-season length. Significant NPP responses to changes in vegetation uptake of nitrogen by PFT indicated that some PFTs were better competitors for nitrogen than other PFTs. While NPP increased, heterotrophic respiration (RH) also increased, resulting in decreases or no change in net ecosystem carbon uptake. Greater aboveground biomass from increased NPP produced a decrease in summer albedo, greater regional heat absorption (0.34 +/- 0.23 W x m(-2) x 10 yr(-1) [mean +/- SD]), and a positive feedback to climate warming. However, the decrease in albedo due to a shorter snow season (-5.1 +/- 1.6 d/10 yr) resulted in much greater regional heat

  8. Weather effects on avian breeding performance and implications of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skagen, Susan K; Adams, Amy A Yackel

    2012-06-01

    The influence of recent climate change on the world's biota has manifested broadly, resulting in latitudinal range shifts, advancing dates of arrival of migrants and onset of breeding, and altered community relationships. Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it will likely exacerbate a broad range of identified threats to animal populations. In the past few decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American avifauna, largely due to habitat threats such as the intensification of agriculture. We examine the effects of local climatic variations on the breeding performance of a bird endemic to the shortgrass prairie, the Lark Bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys) and discuss the implications of our findings relative to future climate predictions. Clutch size, nest survival, and productivity all positively covaried with seasonal precipitation; yet relatively intense daily precipitation events temporarily depressed daily survival of nests. Nest survival was positively related to average temperatures during the breeding season. Declining summer precipitation may reduce the likelihood that Lark Buntings can maintain stable breeding populations in eastern Colorado although average temperature increases of up to 3 degrees C (within the range of this study) may ameliorate declines in survival expected with drier conditions. Historic climate variability in the Great Plains selects for a degree of vagility and opportunism rather than strong site fidelity and specific adaptation to local environments. These traits may lead to northerly shifts in distribution if climatic and habitat conditions become less favorable in the drying southern regions of the Great Plains. Distributional shifts in Lark Buntings could be constrained by future changes in land use, agricultural practices, or vegetative communities that result in further loss of shortgrass prairie habitats. PMID:22827123

  9. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on contributions on 120 French and foreign scientists representing different disciplines (mathematics, physics, mechanics, chemistry, biology, medicine, and so on), this report proposes an overview of the scientific knowledge and debate about climate change. It discusses the various indicators of climate evolution (temperatures, ice surfaces, sea level, biological indicators) and the various factors which may contribute to climate evolution (greenhouse gases, solar radiation). It also comments climate evolutions in the past as they can be investigated through some geological, thermal or geochemical indicators. Then, the authors describe and discuss the various climate mechanisms: solar activity, oceans, ice caps, greenhouse gases. In a third part, the authors discuss the different types of climate models which differ by the way they describe processes, and the current validation process for these models

  10. Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society

    Science.gov (United States)

    MIMURA, Nobuo

    2013-01-01

    Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society. PMID:23883609

  11. Late Quaternary climate-change velocity: Implications for modern distributions and communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandel, Brody Steven; Dalsgaard, Bo; Arge, Lars Allan; Svenning, J.-C.

    Background/Question/Methods Climate-change velocity is a measure of the rate of climate change that incorporates small-scale climate variation such as that found along topographic gradients. As a measure of climate instability, it has several advantages, including describing the minimum migration...... rate required to track changing conditions and explicitly capturing the buffering effect of topography on climate change. Variation in climate stability has long been hypothesized as a possible driver of large-scale ecological patterns including diversity and range size gradients. We calculated a...... global map of climate-change velocity since the Last Glacial Maximum and used this measure of climate instability to address a number of classic hypotheses. Results/Conclusions We show that historical climate-change velocity is related to a wide range of characteristics of modern distributions and...

  12. Assessing an indirect health implication of a changing climate: Ross River Virus in a temperate island state

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Lyth

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In Tasmania, a temperate island state of Australia, there is little understood about the human health implications of a changing climate. Here, we investigate the hypothesis that human populations in Tasmania might become more vulnerable to Ross River virus (RRV under climate change, Australia’s most significant vector-borne disease. Importantly, our study considers the complex social-ecological systems based setting that this virus represents, with our approach being underpinned by systems thinking. Specifically, we undertake an integrated and participatory assessment of potential human vulnerability to RRV in a changing climate, and taking account of other parallel, non-climate regional-scale change considerations. We show that projected moderate changes in Tasmania’s climate will have implications for the State’s human health, whereby Tasmania is likely to become more vulnerable to RRV as the 21st Century progresses, shifting this health issue from a relatively low public health risk to one that will become more concerning and costly. The study assists us to contemplate how we frame human health questions as we move into a climatically changing world and reminds us that health impacts will not always be linear or obvious. It demonstrates an approach for scoping indirect and potentially insidious implications of climate change, even in the face of uncertainty, imperfect systems understanding, and limited resources, to inform a range of decision makers.

  13. Impacts of climate change on forest management and implications for Swedish forestry

    OpenAIRE

    Subramanian, Narayanan

    2016-01-01

    While climate change is expected to increase the growth rates of most tree species in Sweden in the future, during this period, there are also increased risks of tree damage due to various risk factors associated with climate change. Therefore, it is necessary to develop adaptive management measures in order to exploit the benefits of climate change and minimize the damage resulting from these risk factors. In this thesis, the interactive effects of future climate change and various risk fact...

  14. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In spite of man's remarkable advances in technology, ultimately he is still dependent on the Earth's climatic system for food and fresh water. The recent occurrences in certain regions of the world of climatic extremes such as excessive rain or droughts and unseasonably high or low temperatures have led to speculation that a major climatic change is occurring on a global scale. Some point to the recent drop in temperatures in the northern hemisphere as an indication that the Earth is entering a new ice age. Others see a global warming trend that may be due to a build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. An authoritative report on the subject has been prepared by a World Meteorological Organization Panel of Experts on Climatic Change. Excerpts from the report are given. (author)

  15. Climate change and hailstorm damage: Empirical evidence and implications for agriculture and insurance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There is much uncertainty about the effects of anthropogenic climate change on the frequency and severity of extreme weather events like hailstorms, and subsequent economic losses, while this is also relevant information for the design of climate policy. Few studies conducted indicate that a strong positive relation exists between hailstorm activity and hailstorm damage, as predicted by minimum temperatures using simple correlations. This relation suggests that hailstorm damage may increase in the future if global warming leads to further temperature increase. This study estimates a range of Tobit models of relations between normalized insured hailstorm damage to agriculture and several temperature and precipitation indicators for the Netherlands. Temporal dynamics are explicitly modelled. A distinction is made between damage costs for greenhouse horticulture and outdoor farming, which appear to be differently affected by variability in weather. 'Out of sample' forecast tests show that a combination of maximum temperatures and precipitation predicts hailstorm damage best. Extrapolations of the historical relations between hailstorm damage and weather indicators under climate change scenarios project a considerable increase in future hailstorm damage. Our estimates show that by 2050 annual hailstorm damage to outdoor farming could increase by between 25% and 50%, with considerably larger impacts on greenhouse horticulture in summer of more than 200%. The economic implications of more hailstorm damage for, and adaptation by, the agricultural and insurance sectors are discussed. (author)

  16. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book proposes both a scientific and societal approach of a phenomenon which is today the object of lot of debates. Climates perception is illustrated with examples taken in various modern civilizations and in the history of mankind. The Sahara example illustrates the notion of climate evolution. The last chapters are devoted to forecasting and scenarios for the future, taking into account the share of uncertainty. The controversies generated by these forecasts and the Kyoto protocol stakes demonstrate the tight links between the scientific, economical and political aspects in climatic change debates. (J.S.)

  17. Climate change impacts on water supply: implications for reservoir management in Upper Sabor, northeast Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho-Santos, Claudia; Monteiro, António T.; Azevedo, João; Nunes, João Pedro

    2016-04-01

    Climate change scenarios project warmer temperatures and less precipitation in Mediterranean watersheds. This can aggravate drought conditions, with negative impacts on water supply. Here, reservoirs may play an important role to mitigate these impacts. However, the implications of climate change are not always considered in the reservoir planning and management. This study aimed to address this issue for the Upper Sabor watershed, northeast Portugal. This is a medium watershed (403km2), part of the Sabor river, a tributary of Douro (one of the major rivers in the Iberian Peninsula). It is a mountainous watershed (up to 1500m), characterized by humid Mediterranean climate, with three dry months in summer. Almost 52% of the area is occupied by shrubland and 18% agriculture. Water supply for about 33 000 people has been based almost exclusively in one reservoir, but constant problems of water supply in dry summers, which coincide with a doubling of population due to summer holidays, led to the construction of a new reservoir in 2015. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used for a climate change impact assessment, considering the current water supply regime (single reservoir) and the construction of the new reservoir. SWAT was calibrated and validated against daily-observed discharge and reservoir volume, with a good agreement between model predictions and observations. Results from four GCMs (General Circulation Models) for two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were statistically downscaled and bias-corrected with ground observations; climate scenarios for 2021-2040 and 2041-2060 were compared with a control period in 1981-2000. In the future, a general increase of temperatures is expected in the Upper Sabor watershed, especially in the maximum temperature under RCP 8.5 scenario for 2041-2060 (Tmax: +2.88°C). The change in precipitation is more uncertain, with larger differences according to the selected climate model. Annual precipitation would

  18. Impacts of Changing Climate on Agricultural Variability: Implications for Smallholder Farmers in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, P.; Jain, M.; DeFries, R. S.; Galford, G. L.; Small, C.

    2013-12-01

    Agriculture is the largest employment sector in India, where food productivity, and thus food security, is highly dependent on seasonal rainfall and temperature. Projected increase in temperature, along with less frequent but intense rainfall events, will have a negative impact on crop productivity in India in the coming decades. These changes, along with continued ground water depletion, could have serious implications for Indian smallholder farmers, who are among some of the most vulnerable communities to climatic and economic changes. Hence baseline information on agricultural sensitivity to climate variability is important for strategies and policies that promote adaptation to climate variability. This study examines how cropping patterns in different agro-ecological zones in India respond to variations in precipitation and temperature. We specifically examine: a) which climate variables most influence crop cover for monsoon and winter crops? and b) how does the sensitivity of crop cover to climate variability vary in different agro-ecological regions with diverse socio-economic factors? We use remote sensing data (2000-01 - 2012-13) for cropping patterns (developed using MODIS satellite data), climate parameters (derived from MODIS and TRMM satellite data) and agricultural census data. We initially assessed the importance of these climate variables in two agro-ecoregions: a predominantly groundwater irrigated, cash crop region in western India, and a region in central India primarily comprised of rain-fed or surface water irrigated subsistence crops. Seasonal crop cover anomaly varied between -25% and 25% of the 13-year mean in these two regions. Predominantly climate-dependent region in central India showed high anomalies up to 200% of the 13-year crop cover mean, especially during winter season. Winter daytime mean temperature is overwhelmingly the most important climate variable for winter crops irrespective of the varied biophysical and socio

  19. Climate change in BC: Implications for seniors - 20th Annual John K. Friesen Conference - Growing Old in a Changing Climate: Exploring the Interface Between Population Aging and Global Warming (2011)

    OpenAIRE

    Ostry, Aleck

    2011-01-01

    This video clip comprises the four presentations of Panel Session 4, “Preparing Aging Populations for Climate Change in British Columbia and Beyond” held at the 20th Annual John K. Friesen Conference, "Growing Old in a Changing Climate: Exploring the Interface Between Population Aging and Global Warming," MAY 25-26, 2011, Vancouver, BC. Dr. Aleck Ostry "Climate change in BC: Implications for seniors" - The purpose of this paper is to outline how climate change will likely affect seniors in BC...

  20. Implications of land ecosystem-atmosphere interactions for strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Betts, Richard

    2011-01-01

    The standard approach to predicting climate change, assessing its impacts and planning mitigation strategies tends to be compartmentalized, leading to inadequate or incomplete advice for climate policy. Climate models used for future global warming predictions and attribution of past changes generally consider only global climate drivers, ignoring local drivers, such as land use change and urban effects. Impacts studies are generally carried out in isolation from each other and hence ignore i...

  1. A Right to Enjoy Culture in Face of Climate Change: Implications for ?Climate Migrants?

    OpenAIRE

    Wewerinke, Margaretha

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers the extent to which international human rights law offers protection to "climate migrants" irrespective of whether these persons would qualify for refugee status. In contrast with most existing literature, it does not focus on States’ obligations arising from the right to life or the prohibition of inhumane treatment. Instead, the paper focuses on the right of persons belonging to minorities to enjoy their culture as protected under Article 27 of the International Coven...

  2. Climate Change Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jepma, Catrinus J.; Munasinghe, Mohan; Bolin, Foreword By Bert; Watson, Robert; Bruce, James P.

    1998-03-01

    There is increasing scientific evidence to suggest that humans are gradually but certainly changing the Earth's climate. In an effort to prevent further damage to the fragile atmosphere, and with the belief that action is required now, the scientific community has been prolific in its dissemination of information on climate change. Inspired by the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Second Assessment Report, Jepma and Munasinghe set out to create a concise, practical, and compelling approach to climate change issues. They deftly explain the implications of global warming, and the risks involved in attempting to mitigate climate change. They look at how and where to start action, and what organization is needed to be able to implement the changes. This book represents a much needed synopsis of climate change and its real impacts on society. It will be an essential text for climate change researchers, policy analysts, university students studying the environment, and anyone with an interest in climate change issues. A digestible version of the IPCC 1995 Economics Report - written by two of IPCC contributors with a Foreword by two of the editors of Climate Change 1995: Economics of Climate Change: i.e. has unofficial IPCC approval Focusses on policy and economics - important but of marginal interest to scientists, who are more likely to buy this summary than the full IPCC report itself Has case-studies to get the points across Separate study guide workbook will be available, mode of presentation (Web or book) not yet finalized

  3. Climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    This paper presented indicators of climate change for British Columbia (BC) with an emphasis on the coastal region. An overview of global effects of climate change was presented, as well as details of BC's current climate change action plan. Indicators examined in the paper for the BC coastal region included long-term trends in air temperature; long-term trends in precipitation; coastal ocean temperatures; sea levels on the BC coast; and the sensitivity of the BC coast to sea level rise and erosion. Data suggested that average air temperatures have become higher in many areas, and that Springtime temperatures have become warmer over the whole province. Winters have become drier in many areas of the province. Sea surface temperature has risen over the entire coast, with the North Coast and central Strait of Georgia showing the largest increases. Deep-water temperatures have also increased in 5 inlets on the South Coast. Results suggested that the direction and spatial pattern of the climate changes reported for British Columbia are consistent with broader trends in North America and the type of changes predicted by climate models for the region. Climate change will likely result in reduced snow-pack in southern BC. An earlier spring freshet on many snow-dominated river systems is anticipated as well as glacial retreat and disappearance. Warmer temperatures in some lakes and rivers are expected, as well as the increased frequency and severity of natural disturbances such as the pine mountain beetle. Large-scale shifts in ecosystems and the loss of certain ecosystems may also occur. BC's current climate plan includes cost effective actions that address GHG emissions and support efficient infrastructure and opportunities for innovation. Management programs for forest and agricultural lands have been initiated, as well as programs to reduce emissions from government operations. Research is also being conducted to understand the impacts of climate change on

  4. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presented indicators of climate change for British Columbia (BC) with an emphasis on the coastal region. An overview of global effects of climate change was presented, as well as details of BC's current climate change action plan. Indicators examined in the paper for the BC coastal region included long-term trends in air temperature; long-term trends in precipitation; coastal ocean temperatures; sea levels on the BC coast; and the sensitivity of the BC coast to sea level rise and erosion. Data suggested that average air temperatures have become higher in many areas, and that Springtime temperatures have become warmer over the whole province. Winters have become drier in many areas of the province. Sea surface temperature has risen over the entire coast, with the North Coast and central Strait of Georgia showing the largest increases. Deep-water temperatures have also increased in 5 inlets on the South Coast. Results suggested that the direction and spatial pattern of the climate changes reported for British Columbia are consistent with broader trends in North America and the type of changes predicted by climate models for the region. Climate change will likely result in reduced snow-pack in southern BC. An earlier spring freshet on many snow-dominated river systems is anticipated as well as glacial retreat and disappearance. Warmer temperatures in some lakes and rivers are expected, as well as the increased frequency and severity of natural disturbances such as the pine mountain beetle. Large-scale shifts in ecosystems and the loss of certain ecosystems may also occur. BC's current climate plan includes cost effective actions that address GHG emissions and support efficient infrastructure and opportunities for innovation. Management programs for forest and agricultural lands have been initiated, as well as programs to reduce emissions from government operations. Research is also being conducted to understand the impacts of climate change on water

  5. Climate change in the four corners and adjacent regions: Implications for environmental restoration and land-use planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waugh, W.J. [ed.

    1995-09-01

    This document contains the workshop proceedings on Climate Change in the Four Corners and Adjacent Regions: Implications for Environmental Restoration and Land-Use Planning which took place September 12-14, 1994 in Grand Junction, Colorado. The workshop addressed three ways we can use paleoenvironmental data to gain a better understanding of climate change and its effects. (1) To serve as a retrospective baseline for interpreting past and projecting future climate-induced environmental change, (2) To differentiate the influences of climate and humans on past environmental change, and (3) To improve ecosystem management and restoration practices in the future. The papers presented at this workshop contained information on the following subjects: Paleoclimatic data from the Pleistocene and Holocene epochs, climate change and past cultures, and ecological resources and environmental restoration. Selected papers are indexed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database.

  6. Diverse policy implications for future ozone and surface UV in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, A. H.; Daniel, J. S.; Portmann, R. W.; Ravishankara, A. R.; Young, P. J.; Fahey, D. W.; Rosenlof, K. H.

    2016-06-01

    Due to the success of the Montreal Protocol in limiting emissions of ozone-depleting substances, concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane will control the evolution of total column and stratospheric ozone by the latter half of the 21st century. As the world proceeds down the path of reducing climate forcing set forth by the 2015 Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 21), a broad range of ozone changes are possible depending on future policies enacted. While decreases in tropical stratospheric ozone will likely persist regardless of the future emissions scenario, extratropical ozone could either remain weakly depleted or even increase well above historical levels, with diverse implication for ultraviolet (UV) radiation. The ozone layer’s dependence on future emissions of these gases creates a complex policy decision space for protecting humans and ecosystems, which includes unexpected options such as accepting nitrous oxide emissions in order to maintain historical column ozone and surface UV levels.

  7. Climate change and the Canadian energy sector: implications for labour and trade unions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calvert, John; Griffin Cohen, Marjorie [Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (Canada)

    2011-10-15

    With the increasing concerns about global warming, Canada will have to deal with greenhouse gas emissions in the coming years. However, tackling climate change with public policy will affect Canada's economy. The aim of this paper is to explore the implications that a shift from oil and gas energy production to renewable energy would have on the economy. A review of the literature on employment in the energy sector was carried out for the purposes of the study. In the authors' view, this shift would not create that many jobs since employment in the unconventional oil and gas sectors in Canada is expected to grow and jobs in the renewable sector are not so different from those in traditional energy sectors. This paper highlighted the need for government and civil society to play strong roles in developing an energy policy which addresses global warming since the industries are focused on delivering outcomes they want, rather than on mitigating climate change.

  8. Awareness of Climate Change and Implications for Attaining the Millennium Development Goals (MDGS in Niger Delta Region of Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. O. Ajayi

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The Niger Delta region of Nigeria is at the centre of both the economic wealth and climate change in the context of pressing national economic issues. It produces the nation’s major foreign exchange earner- crude oil, has abundant fishery and marine resources- all of which are threatened by vagaries in climatic factors. The study was conducted to evaluate awareness of climate change and implications for attaining the MDGs in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. The study made use of a multi-stage sampling technique to select three hundred and sixty respondents across three Niger Delta States (Delta, Edo, Ondo. Data for the study were collected with the aid of well-structured questionnaires assisted with interview schedules administered on the respondents. Data collected were analysed using descriptive statistics. The analysis of awareness of climate change indicated that level of awareness is low but improving. It was found, however, that the mass media has played the most significant roles in climate change awareness in the study area. The results also indicated that the respondents had been practicing some indigenous and emerging adaptive strategies to climate change for many years. This study concluded that more awareness about climate change in the Niger Delta region have implications for attaining the MDGs.

  9. Climate change & infectious diseases in India: Implications for health care providers

    OpenAIRE

    Dhara, V. Ramana; Schramm, Paul J.; Luber, George

    2013-01-01

    Climate change has the potential to influence the earth's biological systems, however, its effects on human health are not well defined. Developing nations with limited resources are expected to face a host of health effects due to climate change, including vector-borne and water-borne diseases such as malaria, cholera, and dengue. This article reviews common and prevalent infectious diseases in India, their links to climate change, and how health care providers might discuss preventive healt...

  10. Discerning Climate and Land-use Change Impacts on Watershed Hydrology: Implications for Gulf Hypoxia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Impacts of climate change on watershed hydrology are subtle compared to cycles of drought and surplus precipitation (PPT), and difficult to separate from effects of land-use change. In the U.S. Midwest, increasing baseflow has been more attributed to increased annual cropping than climate change. Th...

  11. Climate change and energy: The implications for the Spanish case; Cambio Climatico y Energia: Impliacaciones reciprocas en el caso Espanol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perez Arriaga, J. I.

    2007-07-01

    This paper examines the mutual implications between the climate change problem and the actual energy-at-a-crossroads situation of the unsustainable world energy model. The implications for the Spanish case are studied as a case example. The paper provides a brief review of the scientific evidence on climate change, analyzes the causes of the present energy dilemma and characterizes the problem to be addressed. The principal challenge for the future climate regime is to identify the nature and level of commitment that will provide sufficient incentives for all countries, with such a diversity of interests. The paper also exposes the most plausible framework for the future climate regime, the basic components of such a regime, the role to be played by the major stake holders and some guidelines for future negotiations. (Author)

  12. Awareness of Climate Change and Implications for Attaining the Millennium Development Goals (MDGS) in Niger Delta Region of Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Ajayi, J. O.

    2014-01-01

    The Niger Delta region of Nigeria is at the centre of both the economic wealth and climate change in the context of pressing national economic issues. It produces the nation’s major foreign exchange earner- crude oil, has abundant fishery and marine resources- all of which are threatened by vagaries in climatic factors. The study was conducted to evaluate awareness of climate change and implications for attaining the MDGs in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. The study made use of a multi-s...

  13. Wildlife management in Gonarezhou National Park, southeast Zimbabwe: Climate change and implications for management

    OpenAIRE

    Gandiwa, E.; Zisadza, P.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is not a new phenomenon; the only constant about climate throughout Earth’s history is that it has changed (Marchant, 2010). An earlier study in Africa indicated that some Southern African ecosystems are highly sensitive to climate change (e.g., Magadza, 1994). Climate change in Africa is expected to lead to higher occurrence of severe droughts in semiarid and arid ecosystems (Foley et al., 2008). For instance, a severe drought associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation p...

  14. Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Colin P; Mohtadi, Shahrzad; Cane, Mark A; Seager, Richard; Kushnir, Yochanan

    2015-03-17

    Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system. PMID:25733898

  15. Climate Change In The Fertile Crescent And Implications Of The Recent Drought In Syria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, C. P.; Mohtadi, S.; Cane, M. A.; Seager, R.; Kushnir, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Prior to the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system.

  16. Climate change implications in the northern coastal temperate rainforest of North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanley, Colin S.; Pyare, Sanjay; Goldstein, Michael I.; Alaback, Paul B.; Albert, David M.; Beier, Colin M.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Edwards, Rick T.; Hood, Eran; MacKinnon, Andy; McPhee, Megan V.; Patterson, Trista; Suring, Lowell H.; Tallmon, David; Wipfli, Mark S.

    2015-01-01

    We synthesized an expert review of climate change implications for hydroecological and terrestrial ecological systems in the northern coastal temperate rainforest of North America. Our synthesis is based on an analysis of projected temperature, precipitation, and snowfall stratified by eight biogeoclimatic provinces and three vegetation zones. Five IPCC CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are the basis for projections of mean annual temperature increasing from a current average (1961–1990) of 3.2 °C to 4.9–6.9 °C (5 GCM range; RCP4.5 scenario) or 6.4–8.7 °C (RCP8.5), mean annual precipitation increasing from 3130 mm to 3210–3400 mm (3–9 % increase) or 3320–3690 mm (6–18 % increase), and total precipitation as snow decreasing from 1200 mm to 940–720 mm (22–40 % decrease) or 720–500 mm (40–58 % decrease) by the 2080s (2071–2100; 30-year normal period). These projected changes are anticipated to result in a cascade of ecosystem-level effects including: increased frequency of flooding and rain-on-snow events; an elevated snowline and reduced snowpack; changes in the timing and magnitude of stream flow, freshwater thermal regimes, and riverine nutrient exports; shrinking alpine habitats; altitudinal and latitudinal expansion of lowland and subalpine forest types; shifts in suitable habitat boundaries for vegetation and wildlife communities; adverse effects on species with rare ecological niches or limited dispersibility; and shifts in anadromous salmon distribution and productivity. Our collaborative synthesis of potential impacts highlights the coupling of social and ecological systems that characterize the region as well as a number of major information gaps to help guide assessments of future conditions and adaptive capacity.

  17. Economic and labour market implications of climate change on the tourism sector of the Maltese Islands

    OpenAIRE

    Jones, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    This paper reviews threats to, and consequences of, current climate and environmental change on tourism destinations. The paper reviews recent published research on the impacts of climate and environmental change and consequences of such on the physical social and economic character of tourism operations using the Maltese Islands as a case. The validity and practicality of management options to tackle the complex nature and juxtaposition between tourism growth, climate...

  18. Social Implications of Climate Change in Latin America and the Caribbean

    OpenAIRE

    Verner, Dorte

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is the defining development challenge of our time. More than a global environmental issue, climate change is also a threat to poverty reduction and economic growth and may unravel many of the development gains made in recent decades. Latin America and the Caribbean account for a relatively modest twelve percent of the world's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but communities a...

  19. The role of sea-level rise and the Greenland ice sheet in dangerous climate change: implications for the stabilisation of climate

    OpenAIRE

    Lowe, J A; J. M. Gregory; J. Ridley; Huybrechts, Philippe; Nicholls, R J; Collins, M.

    2006-01-01

    Sea level rise is an important aspect of future climate change because, without upgraded coastal defences, it is likely to lead to significant impacts. Here we report on two aspects of sea-level rise that have implications for the avoidance of dangerous climate change and stabilisation of climate. If the Greenland ice sheet were to melt it would raise global sea levels by around 7m. We discuss the likelihood of such an event occurring in the coming centuries. We also examine the time scales a...

  20. The Dynamics of Vulnerability and Implications for Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from Urban Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilling, L.; Daly, M.; Travis, W.; Wilhelmi, O.; Klein, R.; Kenney, D.; Ray, A. J.; Miller, K.

    2013-12-01

    Recent reports and scholarship have suggested that adapting to current climate variability may represent a "no regrets" strategy for adapting to climate change. Filling "adaptation deficits" and other approaches that rely on addressing current vulnerabilities are of course helpful for responding to current climate variability, but we find here that they are not sufficient for adapting to climate change. First, following a comprehensive review and unique synthesis of the natural hazards and climate adaptation literatures, we advance six reasons why adapting to climate variability is not sufficient for adapting to climate change: 1) Vulnerability is different at different levels of exposure; 2) Coping with climate variability is not equivalent to adaptation to longer term change; 3) The socioeconomic context for vulnerability is constantly changing; 4) The perception of risk associated with climate variability does not necessarily promote adaptive behavior in the face of climate change; 5) Adaptations made to short term climate variability may reduce the flexibility of the system in the long term; and 6) Adaptive actions may shift vulnerabilities to other parts of the system or to other people. Instead we suggest that decision makers faced with choices to adapt to climate change must consider the dynamics of vulnerability in a connected system-- how choices made in one part of the system might impact other valued outcomes or even create new vulnerabilities. Furthermore we suggest that rather than expressing climate change adaptation as an extension of adaptation to climate variability, the research and practice communities would do well to articulate adaptation as an imperfect policy, with tradeoffs and consequences and that decisions be prioritized to preserve flexibility be revisited often as climate change unfolds. We then present the results of a number of empirical studies of decision making for drought in urban water systems in the United States to understand

  1. 180,000 years of climate change in Europe: avifaunal responses and vegetation implications.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Ravnsbæk Holm

    Full Text Available Providing an underutilized source of information for paleoenvironmental reconstructions, birds are rarely used to infer paleoenvironments despite their well-known ecology and extensive Quaternary fossil record. Here, we use the avian fossil record to investigate how Western Palearctic bird assemblages and species ranges have changed across the latter part of the Pleistocene, with focus on the links to climate and the implications for vegetation structure. As a key issue we address the full-glacial presence of trees in Europe north of the Mediterranean region, a widely debated issue with evidence for and against emerging from several research fields and data sources. We compiled and analyzed a database of bird fossil occurrences from archaeological sites throughout the Western Palearctic and spanning the Saalian-Eemian-Weichselian stages, i.e. 190,000-10,000 years BP. In general, cold and dry-adapted species dominated these late Middle Pleistocene and Late Pleistocene fossil assemblages, with clear shifts of northern species southwards during glacials, as well as northwards and westwards shifts of open-vegetation species from the south and east, respectively and downwards shifts of alpine species. A direct link to climate was clear in Northwestern Europe. However, in general, bird assemblages more strongly reflected vegetation changes, underscoring their usefulness for inferring the vegetation structure of past landscapes. Forest-adapted birds were found in continuous high proportions throughout the study period, providing support for the presence of trees north of the Alps, even during full-glacial stages. Furthermore, the results suggest forest-dominated but partially open Eemian landscapes in the Western Palearctic, including the Northwestern European subregion.

  2. Catastrophic ecosystem shifts in dry tropical forest: evidence, mechanisms and implications for climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, D.; D'Odorico, P.; Runyan, C.; Diekmann, L.; DeLonge, M. S.; Das, R.; Eaton, J.; Vandecar, K.; Schmook, B.

    2015-12-01

    Tropical dry forests have long been used by humans. Has it been sustainable? Not in the southern Yucatan. Biomass accumulation declines with each cycle of shifting cultivation with implications for both internal recycling of nutrients and external inputs of nutrients. We detail the evidence for a decline in P inputs from biomass burning (aboveground biomass, litter, and coarse woody debris), an increase in leaching losses from deep soils, and a decline in atmospheric inputs of new P from Saharan dust following the transition from mature to secondary forest. Canopy trapping of dust is critical to maintaining P balance in this system. Effective trapping is diminished by changes in the structure of secondary forest--loss of height, leaf area and basal area. Experimental studies show that it is atmospheric transport of dust, not microbial shedding or leaching from live tissues, that explains the difference between throughfall P and P in bulk deposition. Because of net losses in P, uptake of carbon during regrowth is slower with each cycle of shifting cultivation. As much of the tropics has moved beyond a mature forest frontier, the decline in carbon sequestration is likely widespread over both dry and wet forests. The terrestrial carbon sink in the tropics may be declining. The capacity to sequester carbon through afforestation, reforestation and restoration has certainly diminished over time, limiting the effectiveness of such efforts to help mitigate climate change.

  3. Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, A.; Mujumdar, P. P.

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

  4. The Implication of Water Resources Development and Climate Change on Tropical Lakes and Rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setegn, S.

    2013-12-01

    Assessing future water-availability and developing new management strategies in the presence of climate change is an important challenge in water resources planning and management. A major effect of climate change is likely to be alterations in hydrologic cycles and changes in water availability. Increased evaporation, combined with changes in precipitation, has the potential to affect runoff, the frequency and intensity of floods and droughts. The objective of this study is to assess the vulnerability of water resources for the changing climate and appropriate adaptation strategies. Assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources essentially involves taking projections of climatic variables at a global scale, downscaling global-scale climatic variables to local-scale hydrologic variables, and computing hydrological components for water resources variability and risk of hydrologic extremes. Time serious climate projections were generated by modifying the historical datasets to represent the changes in the GCM climatologies for three future time windows. Changes in streamflows and other hydrological components were investigated using the downscaled changes in temperature and precipitation. The direction of streamflow change followed mainly the direction of changes in rainfall. Many of the models show statistically-significant declines in mean annual flow for the different time-periods and scenarios. Climate change has the potential to cause shortage of agricultural water resources that contribute to a great agricultural drought. Appropriate adaptation strategies should be designed in order to avoid extreme disasters. The results from this study can contribute information to planers and policy makers, to assist them to appropriately design relevant adaptation strategy.

  5. Future climate change in the Mediterranean area: implications for water use and weed management

    OpenAIRE

    Stella Lovelli; Michele Perniola; Emanuele Scalcione; Antonio Troccoli; Ziska, Lewis H

    2012-01-01

    Results obtained within research activity from the Climesco Italian Project are summarized. These results suggest that in regards to the impact of climate change in the Mediterranean area, a decrease of water availability and a more frequent occurrence of drought periods are expected. In order to describe the main effects of climate change on water use in some agro-ecosystems in the Mediterranean area we showed that the Penman-Monteith equation can be modified to simulate future changes in r...

  6. Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

    OpenAIRE

    Mondal, A.; P. P. Mujumdar

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand ...

  7. Uncertainty in the response of transpiration to CO2 and implications for climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Mengis, Nadine; Keller, David P.; M. Eby; Oschlies, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    While terrestrial precipitation is a societally highly relevant climate variable, there is little consensus among climate models about its projected 21st century changes. An important source of precipitable water over land is plant transpiration. Plants control transpiration by opening and closing their stomata. The sensitivity of this process to increasing CO2 concentrations is uncertain. To assess the impact of this uncertainty on future climate, we perform experiments with an intermediate ...

  8. Tension and Resistance to Change Organizational Climate: Managerial Implications for a Fast Paced World

    OpenAIRE

    M Burton, Richard; Lauridsen, Jørgen; Obel, Børge

    2010-01-01

    Climate is the atmosphere of the organization, a “relatively enduring quality of the internal environment of an organization, which is experienced by its members and influences their behavior.” The organizational climate can be measured in terms of trust, morale, conflict, equity in rewards, leader credibility, resistance to change and scapegoating. Using a factor analysis, we found that the organizational climate can be described in two dimensions: “tension” and the resistance...

  9. Flow regime alterations under changing climate in two river basins: Implications for freshwater ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, C.A.; Meyer, J.L.; Poff, N.L.; Hay, L.E.; Georgakakos, A.

    2005-01-01

    We examined impacts of future climate scenarios on flow regimes and how predicted changes might affect river ecosystems. We examined two case studies: Cle Elum River, Washington, and Chattahoochee-Apalachicola River Basin, Georgia and Florida. These rivers had available downscaled global circulation model (GCM) data and allowed us to analyse the effects of future climate scenarios on rivers with (1) different hydrographs, (2) high future water demands, and (3) a river-floodplain system. We compared observed flow regimes to those predicted under future climate scenarios to describe the extent and type of changes predicted to occur. Daily stream flow under future climate scenarios was created by either statistically downscaling GCMs (Cle Elum) or creating a regression model between climatological parameters predicted from GCMs and stream flow (Chattahoochee-Apalachicola). Flow regimes were examined for changes from current conditions with respect to ecologically relevant features including the magnitude and timing of minimum and maximum flows. The Cle Elum's hydrograph under future climate scenarios showed a dramatic shift in the timing of peak flows and lower low flow of a longer duration. These changes could mean higher summer water temperatures, lower summer dissolved oxygen, and reduced survival of larval fishes. The Chattahoochee-Apalachicola basin is heavily impacted by dams and water withdrawals for human consumption; therefore, we made comparisons between pre-large dam conditions, current conditions, current conditions with future demand, and future climate scenarios with future demand to separate climate change effects and other anthropogenic impacts. Dam construction, future climate, and future demand decreased the flow variability of the river. In addition, minimum flows were lower under future climate scenarios. These changes could decrease the connectivity of the channel and the floodplain, decrease habitat availability, and potentially lower the ability

  10. Libertarianism and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Torpman, Olle

    2016-01-01

    In this dissertation, I investigate the implications of libertarian morality in relation to the problem of climate change. This problem is explicated in the first chapter, where preliminary clarifications are also made. In the second chapter, I briefly explain the characteristics of libertarianism relevant to the subsequent study, including the central non-aggression principle. In chapter three, I examine whether our individual emissions of greenhouse gases, which together give rise to climat...

  11. Modeling the prospects for climatic change: current state-of-the-art and implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kellogg, W. M.

    1980-04-04

    It has been increasingly suggested that the world's climate is going to change in the next several decades, primarily as a result of anthropogenic perturbations to the global carbon cycle brought about by fossil fuel burning and large-scale deforestation. In order to cope with these future climatic changes, it is necessary that tools be developed to predict how complex systems respond to a given change of conditions. This report summarizes the status of our ability to model the planetary system that determines the climate. (ACR)

  12. Non-linearity dynamics in ecosystem response to climate change: Case studies and policy implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, V.R.; Wilcox, D.A.; Stottlemyer, R.; Barrow, W.; Fagre, D.; Baron, J.; Nielsen, J.L.; Allen, C.D.; Peterson, D.L.; Ruggerone, G.; Doyle, T.

    2005-01-01

    Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate cna lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear.

  13. Implications of Climate Change for Water Resources Development in the Ganges Basin

    OpenAIRE

    Jeuland, Marc; Harshadeep, Nagaraja; Escurra, Jorge; Blackmore, Don; Sadoff, Claudia

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the first basin-wide assessment of the potential impact of climate change on the hydrology and production of the Ganges system, undertaken as part of the World Bank’s Ganges Strategic Basin Assessment. A series of modeling efforts, downscaling of climate projections, water balance calculations, hydrological simulation and economic optimization, inform the assessment. Th...

  14. Climate Change in the High Andes:implications and adaptation strategies for small-scale farmers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perez, C.; Nicklin, C.; Dangles, O.; Vanek, S.; Sherwood, S.G.; Halloy, S.; Garrett, K.A.; Forbes, G.A.

    2010-01-01

    Abstract: Global climate change represents a major threat to sustainable farming in the Andes. Farmers have used local ecological knowledge and intricate production systems to cope, adapt and reorganize to meet climate uncertainty and risk, which have always been a fact of life. Those traditional sy

  15. Embryonic development rates of northern grasshoppers (Orthoptera: Acrididae): implications for climate change and habitat management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temperature-dependent rates of embryonic development are a primary determinant of the life cycle of many species of grasshoppers which, in cold climates, spend two winters in the egg stage. Knowledge of embryonic developmental rates is important for an assessment of the effects of climate change and...

  16. Review of economic and energy sector implications of adopting global climate change policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Novak, M.H.

    1997-12-31

    This paper summarizes a number of studies examining potential economic impacts of global climate change policies. Implications for the United States as a whole, the U.S. energy sector, the U.S. economy, businesses and consumers, and world economies are considered. Impact assessments are performed of U.S. carbon emissions, carbon taxes, and carbon restrictions by comparing estimates from various organizations. The following conclusions were made from the economic studies: (1) the economic cost of carbon abatement is expensive; (2) the cost of unilateral action is very expensive with little quantifiable evidence that global emissions are reduced; (3) multilateral actions of developed countries are also very expensive, but there is quantifiable evidence of global emissions reductions; and (4) global actions have only been theoretically addressed. Paralleling these findings, the energy analyses show that the U.S. is technologically unprepared to give up fossil fuels. As a result: (1) carbon is not stabilized without a high tax, (2) stabilization of carbon is elusive, (3) technology is the only long-term answer, and (4) targeted programs may be appropriate to force technology development. 8 tabs.

  17. The Kyoto Protocol and climate change mitigation : implications for Canada's forest industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Kyoto Protocol establishes a policy framework and mechanisms by which countries can mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It imposes legally binding targets and provides for the use of economic instruments to help achieve its long-term objectives which will take decades to achieve. This paper discussed the effect that the Kyoto Protocol will have on the Canadian forest sector which plays an important role in the global carbon cycle. The production of forest products is energy intensive and the forest sector can contribute to climate change mitigation through reductions in GHG emissions and increases in carbon sequestration. Participation by the forest sector will require long-term adjustment in how energy is used and how forest carbon is managed. This paper discussed the implications of the Canadian Domestic Emissions Trading (DET) system, a carbon trading system designed to control GHG emissions through the creation and sale of credits in an international marketplace. The impact that DET may have on the competitiveness of companies in the Canadian forest products sector was discussed. 41 refs., 9 tabs., 2 figs

  18. Global climate change implications for coastal and offshore oil and gas development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The discussion and debate about climate change and oil and gas resource development has generally focused on how fossil fuel use affects the Earth's climate. This paper explores how the changing climate is likely to affect oil and gas operations in low-lying coastal areas and the outer continental shelf. Oil and gas production in these regions comprises a large sector of the economies of many energy producing nations. Six key climate change drivers in coastal and marine regions are characterized with respect to oil and gas development: changes in carbon dioxide levels and ocean acidity, air and water temperature, precipitation patterns, the rate of sea level rise, storm intensity, and wave regime. These key drivers have the potential to independently and cumulatively affect coastal and offshore oil and gas exploration, production, and transportation, and several impacts of climate change have already been observed in North America. - Highlights: ► Climate change effects on coastal and offshore energy development have been observed in some regions. ► Key drivers include changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, storm intensity and wave regime. ► These can independently and cumulatively affect coastal and offshore exploration, production, and transportation. ► A methodical vulnerability and impact assessment is needed to support adaptation in this sector of the global economy.

  19. certainty and Climate Change Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Quiggin, John

    2008-01-01

    The paper consists of a summary of the main sources of uncertainty about climate change, and a discussion of the major implications for economic analysis and the formulation of climate policy. Uncertainty typically implies that the optimal policy is more risk-averse than otherwise, and therefore enhances the case for action to mitigate climate change.

  20. Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change. Human health

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bosello, Francesco [Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Venice (Italy); Roson, Roberto [International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy); Tol, Richard S.J. [Centre for Marine and Climate Research, Hamburg University, Hamburg (Germany)

    2006-06-25

    We study the economic impacts of climate-change-induced change in human health, viz. cardiovascular and respiratory disorders, diarrhoea, malaria, dengue fever and schistosomiasis. Changes in morbidity and mortality are interpreted as changes in labour productivity and demand for health care, and used to shock the GTAP-E computable general equilibrium model, calibrated for the year 2050. GDP, welfare and investment fall (rise) in regions with net negative (positive) health impacts. Prices, production, and terms of trade show a mixed pattern. Direct cost estimates, common in climate change impact studies, underestimate the true welfare losses. (author)

  1. Uncertainty in the response of transpiration to CO2 and implications for climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    While terrestrial precipitation is a societally highly relevant climate variable, there is little consensus among climate models about its projected 21st century changes. An important source of precipitable water over land is plant transpiration. Plants control transpiration by opening and closing their stomata. The sensitivity of this process to increasing CO2 concentrations is uncertain. To assess the impact of this uncertainty on future climate, we perform experiments with an intermediate complexity Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) for a range of model-imposed transpiration-sensitivities to CO2. Changing the sensitivity of transpiration to CO2 causes simulated terrestrial precipitation to change by −10% to +27% by 2100 under a high emission scenario. This study emphasises the importance of an improved assessment of the dynamics of environmental impact on vegetation to better predict future changes of the terrestrial hydrological and carbon cycles. (letter)

  2. Uncertainty in the response of transpiration to CO2 and implications for climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengis, N.; Keller, D. P.; Eby, M.; Oschlies, A.

    2015-09-01

    While terrestrial precipitation is a societally highly relevant climate variable, there is little consensus among climate models about its projected 21st century changes. An important source of precipitable water over land is plant transpiration. Plants control transpiration by opening and closing their stomata. The sensitivity of this process to increasing CO2 concentrations is uncertain. To assess the impact of this uncertainty on future climate, we perform experiments with an intermediate complexity Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) for a range of model-imposed transpiration-sensitivities to CO2. Changing the sensitivity of transpiration to CO2 causes simulated terrestrial precipitation to change by -10% to +27% by 2100 under a high emission scenario. This study emphasises the importance of an improved assessment of the dynamics of environmental impact on vegetation to better predict future changes of the terrestrial hydrological and carbon cycles.

  3. Project Summary (2012-2015) – Carbon Dynamics of the Greater Everglades Watershed and Implications of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hinkle, Ross [University of Central Florida; Benscoter, Brian [Florida Atlantic University; Comas, Xavier [Florida Atlantic University; Sumner, David [USGS; DeAngelis, Donald [USGS

    2015-04-07

    Carbon Dynamics of the Greater Everglades Watershed and Implications of Climate Change The objectives of this project are to: 1) quantify above- and below-ground carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems along a seasonal hydrologic gradient in the headwaters region of the Greater Everglades watershed; 2) develop budgets of ecosystem gaseous carbon exchange (carbon dioxide and methane) across the seasonal hydrologic gradient; 3) assess the impact of climate drivers on ecosystem carbon exchange in the Greater Everglades headwater region; and 4) integrate research findings with climate-driven terrestrial ecosystem carbon models to examine the potential influence of projected future climate change on regional carbon cycling. Note: this project receives a one-year extension past the original performance period - David Sumner (USGS) is not included in this extension.

  4. Gender specific reproductive strategies of an arctic key species (Boreogadus saida) and implications of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Nahrgang, Jasmine; Varpe, Øystein; Korshunova, Ekaterina; Murzina, Svetlana; Hallanger, Ingeborg G.; Vieweg, Ireen; Berge, Jørgen

    2014-01-01

    The Arctic climate is changing at an unprecedented rate. What consequences this may have on the Arctic marine ecosystem depends to a large degree on how its species will respond both directly to elevated temperatures and more indirectly through ecological interactions. But despite an alarming recent warming of the Arctic with accompanying sea ice loss, reports evaluating ecological impacts of climate change in the Arctic remain sparse. Here, based upon a large-scale field study, we present ba...

  5. Managing the Murray Darling Basin: some implications for climate change policy

    OpenAIRE

    John Quiggin

    2008-01-01

    Among the many environmental problems facing Australia, the problems of managing the Murray-Darling Basin and of responding to climate change are notable for their complexity, intractability and for the wide range of people and regions affected. Consideration of policy successes and failures in the management of the Murray-Darling Basin may help in the design of a more effective, and cost-effective, response to the problem of climate change

  6. Temperature and Violent Crime in Dallas, Texas: Relationships and Implications of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janet L. Gamble

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: To investigate relationships between ambient temperatures and violent crimes to determine whether those relationships are consistent across different crime categories and whether they are best described as increasing linear functions, or as curvilinear functions that decrease beyond some temperature threshold. A secondary objective was to consider the implications of the observed relationships for injuries and deaths from violent crimes in the context of a warming climate. To address these questions, we examined the relationship between daily ambient temperatures and daily incidents of violent crime in Dallas, Texas from 1993–1999.Methods: We analyzed the relationships between daily fluctuations in ambient temperature, other meteorological and temporal variables, and rates of daily violent crime using time series piece-wise regression and plots of daily data. Violent crimes, including aggravated assault, homicide, and sexualassault, were analyzed.Results: We found that daily mean ambient temperature is related in a curvilinear fashion to daily rates of violent crime with a positive and increasing relationship between temperature and aggravated crime that moderates beyond temperatures of 80 F and then turns negative beyond 90 F.Conclusion: While some have characterized the relationship between temperature and violent crime as a continually increasing linear function, leaving open the possibility that aggravated crime will increase in a warmer climate, we conclude that the relationship in Dallas is not linear, but moderatesand turns negative at high ambient temperatures. We posit that higher temperatures may encourage people to seek shelter in cooler indoor spaces, and that street crime and other crimes of opportunity are subsequently decreased. This finding suggests that the higher ambient temperatures expected with climate change may result in marginal shifts in violent crime in the short term, but are not likely to be

  7. Climate Change: Basic Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... are here: EPA Home Climate Change Basic Information Climate Change: Basic Information On This Page Climate change ... We can make a difference How is the climate changing in the U.S.? Observations across the United ...

  8. Predicting pan-tropical climate change induced forest stock gains and losses-implications for REDD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deforestation is a major threat to tropical forests worldwide, contributing up to one-fifth of global carbon emissions into the atmosphere. Despite protection efforts, deforestation of tropical forests has continued in recent years. Providing incentives to reducing deforestation has been proposed in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Bali negotiations in 2007 to decelerate emissions from deforestation (REDD-reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation). A number of methodological issues such as ensuring permanence, establishing reference emissions levels that do not reward business-as-usual and having a measuring, reporting and verification system in place are essential elements in implementing successful REDD schemes. To assess the combined impacts of climate and land-use change on tropical forest carbon stocks in the 21st century, we use a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ DGVM) driven by five different climate change projections under a given greenhouse gas emission scenario (SRES A2) and two contrasting land-use change scenarios. We find that even under a complete stop of deforestation after the period of the Kyoto Protocol (post-2012) some countries may continue to lose carbon stocks due to climate change. Especially at risk is tropical Latin America, although the presence and magnitude of the risk depends on the climate change scenario. By contrast, strong protection of forests could increase carbon uptake in many tropical countries, due to CO2 fertilization effects, even under altered climate regimes.

  9. The Application of Geobiocoenological Landscape Typology in The Modelling of Climate Change Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlčková Veronika

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Geobiocoenological landscape typology, which is used in landscape planning in the Czech Republic, includes vegetation zonation of the landscape. Vegetation zones are determined by climatic conditions. Changes in climatic conditions will probably be manifested in the shift of vegetation zones in the landscape. Mathematical geobiocoenological model of vegetation zonation of the landscape is based on the general ecological relationship between the current vegetation zonation and present climatic conditions and the assumption that this general relationship will be maintained in the future. The paper presents the application of the model using the example of the prediction of changes in climatic conditions for the Norway spruce (the first-generation of the model and grapevine (the second-generation of the model in the Czech Republic. In the case of the Norway spruce example, the model shows that the predicted changes in climatic conditions will prevent the cultivation of the spruce in the Czech Republic outside its natural range in mountainous areas. The results of the presented model for grapevine show significant enlargement of areas climatically suitable for growing grapes within the studied area.These examples demonstrate the potential for the application of geobiocoenological landscape typology in the modeling of the effects of climate change in the landscape.

  10. Carbon Stocks and Climate Change: Management Implications in Northern Arizona Ponderosa Pine Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Bagdon

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Researchers have observed climate-driven shifts of forest types to higher elevations in the Southwestern US and predict further migration coupled with large-scale mortality events proportional to increases in radiative forcing. Range contractions of forests are likely to impact the total carbon stored within a stand. This study examines the dynamics of Pinus ponderosa stands under three climate change scenarios in Northern Arizona using the Climate Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS model to project changes in carbon pools. A sample of 90 stands were grouped according to three elevational ranges; low- (1951 to 2194 m, mid- (2194 to 2499 m, and high- (2499 to 2682 m. elevation stands. Growth, mortality, and carbon stores were simulated in the Climate-FVS over a 100 year timespan. We further simulated three management scenarios for each elevational gradient and climate scenario. Management included (1 a no-management scenario, (2 an intensive-management scenario characterized by thinning from below to a residual basal area (BA of 18 m2/ha in conjunction with a prescribed burn every 10 years, and (3 a moderate-management scenario characterized by a thin-from-below treatment to a residual BA of 28 m2/ha coupled with a prescribed burn every 20 years. Results indicate that any increase in aridity due to climate change will produce substantial mortality throughout the elevational range of ponderosa pine stands, with lower elevation stands projected to experience the most devastating effects. Management was only effective for the intensive-management scenario; stands receiving this treatment schedule maintained moderately consistent levels of basal area and demonstrated a higher level of resilience to climate change relative to the two other management scenarios. The results of this study indicate that management can improve resiliency to climate change, however, resource managers may need to employ more intensive thinning treatments than

  11. Temperature and Violent Crime in Dallas, Texas: Relationships and Implications of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Gamble, Janet L.; Hess, Jeremy J.

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: To investigate relationships between ambient temperatures and violent crimes to determine whether those relationships are consistent across different crime categories and whether they are best described as increasing linear functions, or as curvilinear functions that decrease beyond some temperature threshold. A secondary objective was to consider the implications of the observed relationships for injuries and deaths from violent crimes in the context of a warming climate. To ad...

  12. Assessing Climate Change Impacts: Agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Bosello, Francesco; Zhang, Jian

    2005-01-01

    The economy-wide implications of climate change on agricultural sectors in 2050 are estimated using a static computable general equilibrium model. Peculiar to this exercise is the coupling of the economic model with a climatic model forecasting temperature increase in the relevant year and with a crop-growth model estimating climate change impact on cereal productivity. The main results of the study point out on the one hand the limited influence of climate change on world food supply and wel...

  13. Implications of climate change for wetland-dependent birds in the Prairie Pothole Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steen, Valerie; Skagen, Susan; Melcher, Cynthia P.

    2016-01-01

    The habitats and food resources required to support breeding and migrant birds dependent on North American prairie wetlands are threatened by impending climate change. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) hosts nearly 120 species of wetland-dependent birds representing 21 families. Strategic management requires knowledge of avian habitat requirements and assessment of species most vulnerable to future threats. We applied bioclimatic species distribution models (SDMs) to project range changes of 29 wetland-dependent bird species using ensemble modeling techniques, a large number of General Circulation Models (GCMs), and hydrological climate covariates. For the U.S. PPR, mean projected range change, expressed as a proportion of currently occupied range, was −0.31 (± 0.22 SD; range − 0.75 to 0.16), and all but two species were projected to lose habitat. Species associated with deeper water were expected to experience smaller negative impacts of climate change. The magnitude of climate change impacts was somewhat lower in this study than earlier efforts most likely due to use of different focal species, varying methodologies, different modeling decisions, or alternative GCMs. Quantification of the projected species-specific impacts of climate change using species distribution modeling offers valuable information for vulnerability assessments within the conservation planning process.

  14. Agricultural Producer Responses to Weather and Surface Water Variability: Implications for Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Manning, Dale T; Goemans, Chris; Maas, Alex

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is predicted to bring increased temperatures and changes in water availability across the United States. Understanding the responsiveness of irrigated agriculture to changes in available water, both supplemental, and natural, is critical to evaluating the potential impacts of climage change as well as measuring the benefit of new water supply development. Despite representing only half the value of total agricultural sales in the US, previous literature has mostly focused on dr...

  15. Climate and hydrological changes in the northeastern United States: recent trends and implications for forested and aquatic ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntington, Thomas G.; Richardson, Andrew D.; McGuire, Kevin J.; Hayhoe, Katharine

    2009-01-01

    We review twentieth century and projected twenty-first century changes in climatic and hydrologic conditions in the northeastern United States and the implications of these changes for forest ecosystems. Climate warming and increases in precipitation and associated changes in snow and hydrologic regimes have been observed over the last century, with the most pronounced changes occurring since 1970. Trends in specific climatic and hydrologic variables differ in their responses spatially (e.g., coastal vs. inland) and temporally (e.g., spring vs. summer). Trends can differ depending on the period of record analyzed, hinting at the role of decadal-scale climatic variation that is superimposed over the longer-term trend. Model predictions indicate that continued increases in temperature and precipitation across the northeastern United States can be expected over the next century. Ongoing increases in growing season length (earlier spring and later autumn) will most likely increase evapotranspiration and frequency of drought. In turn, an increase in the frequency of drought will likely increase the risk of fire and negatively impact forest productivity, maple syrup production, and the intensity of autumn foliage coloration. Climate and hydrologic changes could have profound effects on forest structure, composition, and ecological functioning in response to the changes discussed here and as described in related articles in this issue of the Journal.

  16. Changing climate, changing frames

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► We show development of flood policy frames in context of climate change attention. ► Rising attention on climate change influences traditional flood policy framing. ► The new framing employs global-scale scientific climate change knowledge. ► With declining attention, framing disregards climate change, using local knowledge. ► We conclude that frames function as sensemaking devices selectively using knowledge. -- Abstract: Water management and particularly flood defence have a long history of collective action in low-lying countries like the Netherlands. The uncertain but potentially severe impacts of the recent climate change issue (e.g. sea level rise, extreme river discharges, salinisation) amplify the wicked and controversial character of flood safety policy issues. Policy proposals in this area generally involve drastic infrastructural works and long-term investments. They face the difficult challenge of framing problems and solutions in a publicly acceptable manner in ever changing circumstances. In this paper, we analyse and compare (1) how three key policy proposals publicly frame the flood safety issue, (2) the knowledge referred to in the framing and (3) how these frames are rhetorically connected or disconnected as statements in a long-term conversation. We find that (1) framings of policy proposals differ in the way they depict the importance of climate change, the relevant timeframe and the appropriate governance mode; (2) knowledge is selectively mobilised to underpin the different frames and (3) the frames about these proposals position themselves against the background of the previous proposals through rhetorical connections and disconnections. Finally, we discuss how this analysis hints at the importance of processes of powering and puzzling that lead to particular framings towards the public at different historical junctures

  17. Climate change influences on marine infectious diseases: implications for management and society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burge, Colleen A.; Eakin, C. Mark; Friedman, Carolyn S.; Froelich, Brett; Hershberger, Paul K.; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Petes, Laura E.; Prager, Katherine C.; Weil, Ernesto; Willis, Bette L.; Ford, Susan E.; Harvell, C. Drew

    2014-01-01

    Infectious diseases are common in marine environments, but the effects of a changing climate on marine pathogens are not well understood. Here, we focus on reviewing current knowledge about how the climate drives hostpathogen interactions and infectious disease outbreaks. Climate-related impacts on marine diseases are being documented in corals, shellfish, finfish, and humans; these impacts are less clearly linked to other organisms. Oceans and people are inextricably linked, and marine diseases can both directly and indirectly affect human health, livelihoods, and well-being. We recommend an adaptive management approach to better increase the resilience of ocean systems vulnerable to marine diseases in a changing climate. Land-based management methods of quarantining, culling, and vaccinating are not successful in the ocean; therefore, forecasting conditions that lead to outbreaks and designing tools/approaches to influence these conditions may be the best way to manage marine disease.

  18. Implications of climate change for the fishes of the British Isles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, C T; Harrod, C

    2009-04-01

    Recent climatic change has been recorded across the globe. Although environmental change is a characteristic feature of life on Earth and has played a major role in the evolution and global distribution of biodiversity, predicted future rates of climatic change, especially in temperature, are such that they will exceed any that has occurred over recent geological time. Climate change is considered as a key threat to biodiversity and to the structure and function of ecosystems that may already be subject to significant anthropogenic stress. The current understanding of climate change and its likely consequences for the fishes of Britain and Ireland and the surrounding seas are reviewed through a series of case studies detailing the likely response of several marine, diadromous and freshwater fishes to climate change. Changes in climate, and in particular, temperature have and will continue to affect fish at all levels of biological organization: cellular, individual, population, species, community and ecosystem, influencing physiological and ecological processes in a number of direct, indirect and complex ways. The response of fishes and of other aquatic taxa will vary according to their tolerances and life stage and are complex and difficult to predict. Fishes may respond directly to climate-change-related shifts in environmental processes or indirectly to other influences, such as community-level interactions with other taxa. However, the ability to adapt to the predicted changes in climate will vary between species and between habitats and there will be winners and losers. In marine habitats, recent changes in fish community structure will continue as fishes shift their distributions relative to their temperature preferences. This may lead to the loss of some economically important cold-adapted species such as Gadus morhua and Clupea harengus from some areas around Britain and Ireland, and the establishment of some new, warm-adapted species. Increased

  19. Global Climate Change: Some Implications, Opportunities, and Challenges for US Forestry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marland, G.

    1991-06-01

    It is widely agreed that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the earth`s atmosphere is increasing, that this increase is a consequence of man`s activities, and that there is significant risk that this will lead to changes in the earth`s climate. The question is now being discussed what, if anything, we should be doing to minimize and/or adapt to changes in climate. Virtually every statement on this matter; from the US Office of Technology Assessment, to the National Academy of Science, to the Nairobi Declaration on Climatic Change, includes some recommendation for planting and protecting forests. In fact, forestry is intimately involved in the climate change debate for several reasons: changing climate patterns will affect existing forests, tropical deforestation is one of the major sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, reforestation projects could remove additional carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and there is renewed interest in wood-based or other renewable fuels to replace fossil fuels. Part of the enthusiasm for forestry-related strategies in a greenhouse context is the perception that forests not only provide greenhouse benefits but also serve other desirable social objectives. This discussion will explore the current range of thinking in this area and try to stimulate additional thinking on the rationality of the forestry-based approaches and the challenges posed for US forestry.

  20. Global climate change: Some implications, opportunities, and challenges for US forestry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is widely agreed that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere is increasing, that this increase is a consequence of man's activities, and that there is significant risk that this will lead to changes in the earth's climate. The question is now being discussed what, if anything, we should be doing to minimize and/or adapt to changes in climate. Virtually every statement on this matter; from the US Office of Technology Assessment, to the National Academy of Science, to the Nairobi Declaration on Climatic Change, includes some recommendation for planting and protecting forests. In fact, forestry is intimately involved in the climate change debate for several reasons: changing climate patterns will affect existing forests, tropical deforestation is one of the major sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, reforestation projects could remove additional carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and there is renewed interest in wood-based or other renewable fuels to replace fossil fuels. Part of the enthusiasm for forestry-related strategies in a greenhouse context is the perception that forests not only provide greenhouse benefits but also serve other desirable social objectives. This discussion will explore the current range of thinking in this area and try to stimulate additional thinking on the rationality of the forestry-based approaches and the challenges posed for US forestry

  1. Effects of seasonal climatic variability on several toxic contaminants in urban lakes: Implications for the impacts of climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qiong Wu; Xinghui Xia; Xinli Mou; Baotong Zhu; Pujun Zhao; Haiyang Dong

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is supposed to have influences on water quality and ecosystem.However,only few studies have assessed the effect of climate change on environmental toxic contaminants in urban lakes.In this research,response of several toxic contaminants in twelve urban lakes in Beijing,China,to the seasonal variations in climatic factors was studied.Fluorides,volatile phenols,arsenic,selenium,and other water quality parameters were analyzed monthly from 2009 to 2012.Multivariate statistical methods including principle component analysis,cluster analysis,and multiple regression analysis were performed to study the relationship between contaminants and climatic factors including temperature,precipitation,wind speed,and sunshine duration.Fluoride and arsenic concentrations in most urban lakes exhibited a significant positive correlation with temperature/precipitation,which is mainly caused by rainfall induced diffuse pollution.A negative correlation was observed between volatile phenols and temperature/precipitation,and this could be explained by their enhanced volatilization and biodegradation rates caused by higher temperature.Selenium did not show a significant response to climatic factor variations,which was attributed to low selenium contents in the lakes and soils.Moreover,the response degrees of contaminants to climatic variations differ among lakes with different contamination levels.On average,temperature/precipitation contributed to 8%,15%,and 12% of the variations in volatile phenols,arsenic,and fluorides,respectively.Beijing is undergoing increased temperature and heavy rainfall frequency during the past five decades.This study suggests that water quality related to fluoride and arsenic concentrations of most urban lakes in Beijing is becoming worse under this climate change trend.

  2. Evidence and Implications of Recent Climate Change in Terrestrial Regions of the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinzman, L. D.; Bettez, N.; Chapin, F. S.; Dyurgerov, M.; Fastie, C.; Griffith, D. B.; Hope, A.; Huntington, H. P.; Jensen, A.; Kane, D. L.; Kofinas, G.; Lynch, A.; Lloyd, A.; McGuire, A. D.; Nelson, F. E.; Osterkamp, T.; Oechel, W. C.; Racine, C.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Schimel, J.; Stow, D.; Sturm, M.; Tweedie, C. E.; Vourlitis, G.; Walker, M.; Webber, P. J.; Welker, J.; Winker, K.; Yoshikawa, K.

    2002-12-01

    Are changes occurring in the polar terrestrial regime? Is the distribution of permafrost and Arctic region freeze and thaw changing? Is the hydrology of Arctic terrestrial regions changing? Are significant changes occurring in the distribution and productivity of high-latitude vegetation? If one examines any individual scientific discipline, evidence of climate change in arctic regions offers only pieces of the puzzle. Here we present a broad array of evidence to provide a convincing case of change in the arctic climate and a system-wide response of terrestrial processes. The thermal regime of the Arctic holds unique characteristics and consequently will display marked changes in response to climate warming. In many cases, threshold changes will occur in physical systems proceeding from permanently frozen to periodically thawed. Dramatic changes also accompany biological systems adapting to an evolving environment. In the last 25 to 400 years a wide range of changes in the Arctic have been detected. In many cases, these changes started, or accelerated, in the mid-1970s. Some of the changes, like later freeze-up and earlier break-up of arctic rivers and lakes, mirror arctic-wide and even global increases in air temperature. Others document more subtle or complex responses of the arctic system as it adapts to current and longer-term trends in climate. Since the arctic system is particularly sensitive to changes in rain- and snowfall, timing of freeze-up and break-up, and the intensity of storm activity, it is likely that much of what has been documented to date, and will be observed in the future, arises from changes in these forcing fields. Unfortunately, compared with temperature, they are poorly known. Regardless of the driving forces, however, the combined observations and documentation offer diffuse but substantial evidence that the arctic system may be entering a state not seen before in recent history.

  3. Assessment of Potential Shifts in Europe's Natural Vegetation due to Climatic Change and some Implications for Nature Conservation

    OpenAIRE

    Groot, R.S. de

    1988-01-01

    One of the objectives of IIASA's Study "The Future Environments for Europe: Some Implications of Alternative Development Paths" is to characterize the large-scale and long-term environmental transformations that could be associated with plausible scenarios of Europe's socio-economic development over the next century. An important environmental transformation is the expected climatic change which will place additional stresses on the natural ecosystems in Europe. This Working Paper describes a...

  4. Four decades of Andean timberline migration and implications for biodiversity loss with climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A Lutz

    Full Text Available Rapid 21st-century climate change may lead to large population decreases and extinction in tropical montane cloud forest species in the Andes. While prior research has focused on species migrations per se, ecotones may respond to different environmental factors than species. Even if species can migrate in response to climate change, if ecotones do not they can function as hard barriers to species migrations, making ecotone migrations central to understanding species persistence under scenarios of climate change. We examined a 42-year span of aerial photographs and high resolution satellite imagery to calculate migration rates of timberline--the grassland-forest ecotone-inside and outside of protected areas in the high Peruvian Andes. We found that timberline in protected areas was more likely to migrate upward in elevation than in areas with frequent cattle grazing and fire. However, rates in both protected (0.24 m yr(-1 and unprotected (0.05 m yr(-1 areas are only 0.5-2.3% of the rates needed to stay in equilibrium with projected climate by 2100. These ecotone migration rates are 12.5 to 110 times slower than the observed species migration rates within the same forest, suggesting a barrier to migration for mid- and high-elevation species. We anticipate that the ecotone will be a hard barrier to migration under future climate change, leading to drastic population and biodiversity losses in the region unless intensive management steps are taken.

  5. Evidence and implications of recent climate change in Northern Alaska and other Arctic regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinzman, L.D.; Bettez, N.D.; Bolton, W.R.; Chapin, F.S.; Dyurgerov, M.B.; Fastie, C.L.; Griffith, B.; Hollister, R.D.; Hope, A.; Huntington, H.P.; Jensen, A.M.; Jia, G.J.; Jorgenson, T.; Kane, D.L.; Klein, D.R.; Kofinas, G.; Lynch, A.H.; Lloyd, A.H.; McGuire, A.D.; Nelson, F.E.; Oechel, W.C.; Osterkamp, T.E.; Racine, C.H.; Romanovsky, V.E.; Stone, R.S.; Stow, D.A.; Sturm, M.; Tweedie, C.E.; Vourlitis, G.L.; Walker, M.D.; Walker, D. A.; Webber, P. J.; Welker, J.M.; Winker, K.S.; Yoshikawa, K.

    2005-01-01

    The Arctic climate is changing. Permafrost is warming, hydrological processes are changing and biological and social systems are also evolving in response to these changing conditions. Knowing how the structure and function of arctic terrestrial ecosystems are responding to recent and persistent climate change is paramount to understanding the future state of the Earth system and how humans will need to adapt. Our holistic review presents a broad array of evidence that illustrates convincingly; the Arctic is undergoing a system-wide response to an altered climatic state. New extreme and seasonal surface climatic conditions are being experienced, a range of biophysical states and processes influenced by the threshold and phase change of freezing point are being altered, hydrological and biogeochemical cycles are shifting, and more regularly human sub-systems are being affected. Importantly, the patterns, magnitude and mechanisms of change have sometimes been unpredictable or difficult to isolate due to compounding factors. In almost every discipline represented, we show how the biocomplexity of the Arctic system has highlighted and challenged a paucity of integrated scientific knowledge, the lack of sustained observational and experimental time series, and the technical and logistic constraints of researching the Arctic environment. This study supports ongoing efforts to strengthen the interdisciplinarity of arctic system science and improve the coupling of large scale experimental manipulation with sustained time series observations by incorporating and integrating novel technologies, remote sensing and modeling. ?? Springer 2005.

  6. Climate change implications for stand yields and soil expectation values : a northern Saskatchewan case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnston, M. [Saskatchewan Research Council, Saskatoon, SK (Canada); Williamson, T. [Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2005-10-01

    Climate-related factors that will influence the future productivity of forest stands were considered through the use of a forest ecosystem model. Recent research estimates on future areas burned under climate change were compared with current information about areas burned in north central Saskatchewan. Projected changes were incorporated into Reed's fire risk model with an adjusted soil expectation value (SEV) formula. Potential economic impacts of climate change were discussed in relation to forest land values and the development of optimal economic rotations. Current and future climatic data were taken from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM II), and the accuracy of the data was determined by comparing model output for 1975-1984 for Prince Albert for the same time period. Mean maximum temperature was in close agreement, but modelled mean minimum temperatures were warmer than those observed. The effects of climate change on future stand yields and areas burned were then integrated to determine future SEV for white spruce in central Saskatchewan. Predicted productivity levels for the future scenarios for white spruce on sites with adequate moisture and no drought showed productivity increases of 40 per cent in the absence of increased water use efficiency (WUE). Increases of 60 per cent were predicted where WUE was increased. Under drought conditions on available water-holding capacity (AWC) soils, productivity only increased when the WUE effect was included. On 50 mm soils without increased WUE, productivity declined by 20 per cent relative to current levels. The results were applied to the provincial white spruce D-density yield curve, which resulted in a group of modified curves that were used in the SEV analysis. It was observed that optimal economic rotation under future climatic conditions was lower than at present. Results regarding the economic impact of climate change were ambiguous. It was noted that the impacts of climate change were very

  7. Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society

    OpenAIRE

    MIMURA, Nobuo

    2013-01-01

    Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human ...

  8. Climate change in the Seychelles: implications for water and coral reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payet, Rolph; Agricole, Wills

    2006-06-01

    The Seychelles is a small island state in the western Indian Ocean that is vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This vulnerability led the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 to express concern over the potential economic and social consequences that may be faced by small island states. Small island states should be prepared to adapt to such changes, especially in view of their dependence on natural resources, such as water and coral reefs, to meet basic human welfare needs. Analysis of long-term data for precipitation, air temperature, and sea-surface temperature indicated that changes are already observable in the Seychelles. The increase in dry spells that resulted in drought conditions in 1999 and the 1998 mass coral bleaching are indicative of the events that are likely to occur under future climate change. Pre-IPCC Third Assessment Report scenarios and the new SRES scenarios are compared for changes in precipitation and air surface temperature for the Seychelles. These intercomparisons indicate that the IS92 scenarios project a much warmer and wetter climate for the Seychelles than do the SRES scenarios. However, a wetter climate does not imply readily available water, but rather longer dry spells with more intense precipitation events. These observations will likely place enormous pressures on water-resources management in the Seychelles. Similarly, sea-surface temperature increases predicted by the HADCM3 model will likely trigger repeated coral-bleaching episodes, with possible coral extinctions within the Seychelles region by 2040. The cover of many coral reefs around the Seychelles have already changed, and the protection of coral-resilient areas is a critical adaptive option. PMID:16944643

  9. Climate Change in the Seychelles: Implications for Water and Coral Reefs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Payet, Rolph; Agricole, Wills [National Meteorological Services Mahe (Seychelles). Div. of Policy, Planning and Services

    2006-06-15

    The Seychelles is a small island state in the western Indian Ocean that is vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This vulnerability led the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 to express concern over the potential economic and social consequences that may be faced by small island states. Small island states should be prepared to adapt to such changes, especially in view of their dependence on natural resources, such as water and coral reefs, to meet basic human welfare needs. Analysis of long-term data for precipitation, air temperature, and sea-surface temperature indicated that changes are already observable in the Seychelles. The increase in dry spells that resulted in drought conditions in 1999 and the 1998 mass coral bleaching are indicative of the events that are likely to occur under future climate change. Pre-IPCC Third Assessment Report scenarios and the new SRES scenarios are compared for changes in precipitation and air surface temperature for the Seychelles. These intercomparisons indicate that the IS92 scenarios project a much warmer and wetter climate for the Seychelles than do the SRES scenarios. However, a wetter climate does not imply readily available water, but rather longer dry spells with more intense precipitation events. These observations will likely place enormous pressures on water-resources management in the Seychelles. Similarly, sea-surface temperature increases predicted by the HADCm{sup 3} model will likely trigger repeated coral-bleaching episodes, with possible coral extinctions within the Seychelles region by 2040. The cover of many coral reefs around the Seychelles have already changed, and the protection of coral-resilient areas is a critical adaptive option.

  10. Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hällfors, Maria Helena; Liao, Jishan; Dzurisin, Jason D. K.; Grundel, Ralph; Hyvärinen, Marko; Towle, Kevin; Wu, Grace C.; Hellmann, Jessica J.

    2016-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs to treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account, may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted, however. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species' range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate MaxEnt models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. PCA analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species versus population-based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population-based models to compare with whole-species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered.

  11. Stable carbon isotope analyses in sediments and its implications for reconstructing climatic and environmental changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The relative significance of the 20th-century climatic and environmental changes must be assessed form the long-term global-scale perspective available from a spectrum of proxy histories. In many cases geochemical proxies in sediments are needed to supplement the established use of the stable isotope analyses for paleotemperature and paleo-hydrological modeling so as to understand the past environment conditions and evaluate predictive models of climate. The stable carbon isotope fractionation during photosynthesis and the system CO2 (gas)-CO2-(aqueous)-HCO3- (aqueous) are reviewed; and application of the stable carbon isotope to reconstruction of palaeo-climatic and palaeo-environmental changes, especially CO2 levels during the late Quaternary are discussed

  12. Responses of tropical root crops to climate change: implications for Pacific food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleadow, R.; Webber, B.; Macness, N.; Lisson, S.; Nauluvula, P.; Hargraves, J.; Crimp, S. J.

    2013-12-01

    Cassava and taro are an important source of calories in many parts of the developing world and hold much promise for meeting the need for food security in equatorial regions. Communities in the Pacific Island countries reliant on agriculture-based livelihood systems have been identified as particularly at risk from climate change, due to likely increases in crop failure, new patterns of pests and diseases, lack of appropriate seed and plant material, loss of livestock and potential loss of arable land. Recent shortfalls in agricultural production resulting from changing export markets, commodity prices, climatic variation, and population growth and urbanisation, have contributed further to regional food insecurity concerns. Cassava and taro contain herbivore defense chemicals that are detrimental to human health (cyanogenic glucosides and calcium oxalate). Unprocessed cassava can cause acute cyanide intoxication, paralysis and even death, especially during droughts. A number of activities are already underway in the Pacific region to identify ways to ameliorate existing climate risk and enhance current agricultural production. Whilst these activities are important to ensure long-term agricultural sustainability, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty as to how effective these strategies may be in the face of a changing and increasingly variable future climate. We present our current understanding of the impact of climate change on key Pacific production systems - specifically those based on the staple root crops, taro and cassava. This includes (1) Our understanding of the responses of cassava and taro crops to existing environmental drivers (climate, soil and nutrient interactions); (2) The responses of cassava and taro crops to enhanced CO2 conditions; and (3) Efforts to model productivity responses (within the APSIM framework) and results for locations in the Pacific.

  13. Implications of Climate Variability and Change for Smallholder Crop Production in Different Areas of Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Musiyiwa

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable food production in the rain-fed smallholder sector of Zimbabwe is imperative in current and future climates given the increasing proportion and role of the sector in food security. Backgrounds of the smallholder sector include low resource bases, declining soil productivity, climate variability and increasing human population. Impacts of climatic and non-climatic variables on crop production vary in different Agro-Ecological Regions (AERs. The study identifies the main climatic opportunities and constraints for sustainable rain-fed smallholder crop production systems in current and future climates. Estimated changes in rainfall and temperature by 2050 are not likely to negatively impact crop production in smallholder areas in AER I, increases in temperature may have negative impacts for most of AER III and IV. Most of AER V is likely to become unsuitable for sustainable maize production. Overall projections indicate increased differences in agricultural potential between smallholder farmers in AER I compared to those in AER II and III as well as those in AER IV and V and different management options. Proposed adaptation and coping strategies in AER I and some in AER II include intensification of agriculture and optimization of both C3 and C4 crop production while in AER III to V adoption of stress tolerant crops for family subsistence may be imperative.

  14. Transmission Intensity and Drug Resistance in Malaria Population Dynamics : Implications for Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Artzy-Randrup, Yael; Alonso, David; Pascual, Mercedes

    2010-01-01

    Although the spread of drug resistance and the influence of climate change on malaria are most often considered separately, these factors have the potential to interact through altered levels of transmission intensity. The influence of transmission intensity on the evolution of drug resistance has b

  15. Population dynamics under increasing environmental variability: implications of climate change for ecological network design criteria

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verboom, J.; Schippers, P.; Cormont, A.; Sterk, M.; Vos, C.C.; Opdam, P.F.M.

    2010-01-01

    There is growing evidence that climate change causes an increase in variation in conditions for plant and animal populations. This increase in variation, e.g. amplified inter-annual variability in temperature and rainfall has population dynamical consequences because it raises the variation in vital

  16. Connecting to Nature at the Zoo: Implications for Responding to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clayton, Susan; Luebke, Jerry; Saunders, Carol; Matiasek, Jennifer; Grajal, Alejandro

    2014-01-01

    Societal response to climate change has been inadequate. A perception that the issue is both physically and temporally remote may reduce concern; concern may also be affected by the political polarization surrounding the issue in the USA. A feeling of connection to nature or to animals may increase personal relevance, and a supportive social…

  17. Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Cereal Production: Implications for Sustainable Agriculture in Northern Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anslem Bawayelaazaa Nyuor

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the economic impacts of climate change on cereal crop production in Northern Ghana using 240 households comprising maize and sorghum farmers. The Ricardian regression approach was used to examine the economic impacts of climate change based on data generated from a survey conducted in the 2013/2014 farming seasons. Forty-year time-series data of rainfall and temperature from 1974 to 2013, together with cross-sectional data, were used for the empirical analysis. The Ricardian regression estimates for both maize and sorghum showed varying degrees of climate change impacts on net revenues. The results indicated that early season precipitation was beneficial for sorghum, but harmful for maize. However, mid-season precipitation tended to promote maize production. Temperature levels for all seasons impacted negatively on net revenue for both crops, except during the mid-season, when temperature exerted a positive effect on net revenue for sorghum. Our findings suggest that appropriate adaptation strategies should be promoted to reduce the negative impacts of prevailing climate change on cereal crop production.

  18. Implications of Climate Change for State Bioassessment Programs and Approaches to Account for Effects (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This final report uses biological data collected by four states in wadeable rivers and streams to examine the components of state and tribal bioassessment and biomonitoring programs that may be vulnerable to climate change. The study investigates the potential to identify biologi...

  19. Isotope-based reconstruction of the biogeochemical Si cycle : Implications for climate change and human perturbation

    OpenAIRE

    Sun, Xiaole

    2012-01-01

    The global silicon (Si) cycle is of fundamental importance for the global carbon cycle. Diatom growth in the oceans is a major sequestration pathway for carbon on a global scale (often referred to as the biological pump). Patterns of diatoms preserved in marine sediment records can reveal both natural and anthropogenic driven environmental change, which can be used to understand silicon dynamics and climate change. Si isotopes have been shown to have great potential in order to understand the...

  20. Public attitudes to climate change and carbon mitigation—Implications for energy-associated behaviours

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This work explores public opinions regarding climate change and mitigation options and examines how psychological factors, such as attitudes, norms, and willingness to pay, determine self-reported energy-efficient behaviour. The aim is to create knowledge for the design and implementation of policy measures. The results of an opinion poll conducted in 2005 and 2010 are compared. The number of respondents favouring new technologies as a way to reduce emissions was substantially lower in 2010 than in 2005, whereas there was an increase in the number of people who acknowledged that lifestyle changes are necessary to counteract climate changes. This indicates an increased awareness among the public of the need for lifestyle changes, which could facilitate implementation of policies promoting environmental behaviour. Renewable energy and energy saving measures were ranked as the top two measures for mitigating climate change in both polls. In determining which energy behaviours of the public are determined by psychological factors, an analysis of the 2010 survey revealed that respondents with pro-environmental attitudes towards global warming favour significantly increased use of renewable energy technologies and greater engagement in energy-efficient behaviours. - Highlights: ► Public opinion place priority to environmental issues and beliefs to change current lifestyle. ► A decline in favoring new technologies as a way to reduce emissions in 2010 compare to 2005 poll. ► Environmental attitudes relate to favor of renewable energy technologies. ► Environmental attitudes relate to households energy efficient behaviour

  1. Using tropical forest ecosystem goods and services for planning climate change adaptation with implications for food security and poverty reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johnson Nkem

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Tropical forest ecosystems represent a common heritage with livelihood portfolios shared by a great majority of people especially in developing countries but are now threatened by climate change. In spite of their contribution to poverty alleviation and food security, and also for climate change responses (adaptation and mitigation especially through the market-incentive schemes (CDM of the Kyoto Protocol forests are still hardly integrated into national planning processes aimed at addressing any of these national development challenges. This is evident in some of the national documents of some developing countries such as the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP to the World Bank, and the First National Communication to UNFCCC. This paper presents some preliminary outcomes of the Tropical Forests and Climate Change Adaptation (TroFCCA project of the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR whose overall mission is to underscore the importance of tropical forests for livelihood adaptation to climate change and mainstreaming adaptation into national development processes. The paper also highlights TroFCCA’s approach in engaging stakeholders from the onset in setting the agenda with the identification and prioritization of forest-based sectors as the entry point in the process of assessing the vulnerability to climate change and developing adaptation strategies for these selected development sectors. This is a highly crucial area with great policy implications. Planning with ecosystem goods and services seems to emerge as a prospective approach to demonstrate to policymakers the potential of forest ecosystems for livelihood adaptation to climate change which also enhances the opportunity for achieving food security and community resilience to poverty. TroFCCA’s approach in engaging stakeholders at the onset in defining their perception of ecosystem goods and services by virtue of their importance to household livelihoods and their

  2. Reducing Poverty, Protecting Livelihoods, and Building Assets in a Changing Climate : Social Implications of Climate Change for Latin America and the Caribbean

    OpenAIRE

    Verner, Dorte

    2010-01-01

    This book provides a much needed look at the impact of climate change on the poor. It convincingly demonstrates that issues of poverty and livelihoods must be integrated into climate change policies to help achieve sustainable development gains. The high incidence of natural disasters, growing urbanization, and increased water scarcity combined with the acute impact of these phenomena on t...

  3. Environmental effects on germination phenology of co-occurring eucalypts: implications for regeneration under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rawal, Deepa S; Kasel, Sabine; Keatley, Marie R; Nitschke, Craig R

    2015-09-01

    Germination is considered one of the important phenological stages that are influenced by environmental factors, with timing and abundance determining plant establishment and recruitment. This study investigates the influence of temperature, soil moisture and light on the germination phenology of six Eucalyptus species from two co-occurring groups of three species representing warm-dry and cool-moist sclerophyll forests. Data from germination experiments were used to calibrate the germination module of the mechanistic model TACA-GEM, to evaluate germination phenology under a range of climate change scenarios. With the exception of E. polyanthemos, the optimal niche for all species was characterised by cool-moist stratification, low light, cool temperatures and high soil moisture. Model results indicated that of the warm-dry species, Eucalyptus microcarpa exhibited greater germination and establishment under projected changes of warmer drier conditions than its co-occurring species Eucalyptus polyanthemos and Eucalyptus tricarpa which suggests that E. microcarpa could maintain its current distribution under a warmer and drier climate in southeastern Australia. Among the cool-moist species, Eucalyptus radiata was the only species that established under projected climate change of the 2080s but at such a low probability that its persistence compared to Eucalyptus obliqua and Eucalyptus sieberi cannot be posited. For all cool-moist species, germination did not benefit from the phenological shifts they displayed. This study successfully demonstrated environmental effects on germination phenology and how a shift in climate can influence the timing and success of recruitment. PMID:25409871

  4. Environmental effects on germination phenology of co-occurring eucalypts: implications for regeneration under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rawal, Deepa S.; Kasel, Sabine; Keatley, Marie R.; Nitschke, Craig R.

    2015-09-01

    Germination is considered one of the important phenological stages that are influenced by environmental factors, with timing and abundance determining plant establishment and recruitment. This study investigates the influence of temperature, soil moisture and light on the germination phenology of six Eucalyptus species from two co-occurring groups of three species representing warm-dry and cool-moist sclerophyll forests. Data from germination experiments were used to calibrate the germination module of the mechanistic model TACA-GEM, to evaluate germination phenology under a range of climate change scenarios. With the exception of E. polyanthemos, the optimal niche for all species was characterised by cool-moist stratification, low light, cool temperatures and high soil moisture. Model results indicated that of the warm-dry species, Eucalyptus microcarpa exhibited greater germination and establishment under projected changes of warmer drier conditions than its co-occurring species Eucalyptus polyanthemos and Eucalyptus tricarpa which suggests that E. microcarpa could maintain its current distribution under a warmer and drier climate in southeastern Australia. Among the cool-moist species, Eucalyptus radiata was the only species that established under projected climate change of the 2080s but at such a low probability that its persistence compared to Eucalyptus obliqua and Eucalyptus sieberi cannot be posited. For all cool-moist species, germination did not benefit from the phenological shifts they displayed. This study successfully demonstrated environmental effects on germination phenology and how a shift in climate can influence the timing and success of recruitment.

  5. Report of the Canada-European Union Symposium : environmental assessment, climate change research and policy implications in the Arctic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change models indicate that the Arctic regions will see a change in climate over the next 100 years. This will have a significant impact on the environment and natural resources, as well as on the communities that depend on them. This symposium outlined some of the major impacts of climate change already occurring in northern environments, as well as those likely to occur in the near future. The policy implications of these impacts were also examined, as well as ways in which the science of climate change may be used to further develop policy. The first session focused on scientific methods of climate change research, including the use of measuring instruments to detect changes in the Arctic Ocean Basin. The second session presented details of northern ecosystems, including tree line shifts and species currently at risk. Issues concerning stewardship and responsibility were also examined. The third session discussed the necessity of developing a mechanism to strengthen the information flow between the scientific community and policy leaders. Different climate models vary in their projections, and a universally accepted standard for validation and calibration must be established. The fourth session discussed the development of a framework to address cumulative effects and take into account various stakeholders, environmental impacts and other concerns specific to the Northwest Territories. The fifth session suggested ways in which international co-operation can increase and facilitate policy making. Open discussions followed each session. It was concluded that Arctic researchers and policy makers need to rethink the ways in which research planning and information dissemination is approached. It was suggested that opportunities for global collaboration should be explored. tabs., figs

  6. Potential Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment in the United States and Implications for Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, D.

    2012-12-01

    The built environment consists of components that have been made by humans at a range of scales from small (e.g., houses, shopping malls) to large (e.g., transportation networks) to highly modified landscapes such as cities. The impacts of climate change on the built environment, therefore, may have a multitude of effects on humans and the land. The impact of climate change may be exacerbated by the interaction of different events that singly may be minor, but together may have a synergistic set of impacts that are significant. Also, there may be feedback mechanisms wherein the built environment, particularly in the form of cities, may affect weather and the climate on local and regional scales. Besides having a host of such interactions, the impacts of climate change on urban areas will likely have thresholds, below which effects are incidental or of mild consequence, but beyond which the effects quickly become major. Hence, a city may be able to cope with prolonged heat waves, but if this is combined with severe drought, the overall result could be significant or even catastrophic, as accelerating demand for energy to cooling taxes water supplies needed both for energy supply and municipal water needs. Moreover, urban areas may be affected by changes in daily and seasonal high or low temperatures or precipitation, which may have a much more prolonged impact than the direct effect of these events. Thus, the cumulative impacts of multiple events may be more severe than those of any single event. Primary hazards include sea level rise and coastal storms, heat waves, intense precipitation, drought, extreme wind events, urban heat islands, and secondary air pollutants, and cold air events including frozen precipitation. Indicators need to be developed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities. Overall, indicators of climate change on the built environment

  7. Navigating SA's climate change legislation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is proposed that there should be a legislation to address climate change and Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Bill. South Australian Government Greenhouse Strategy and climate change legislation in light of the far-reaching implications this legislation could have on clients, who face the impacts of climate change in the business and natural environment. It is a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in South Australia by 2050 to 60 per cent of 1990 levels

  8. Regional Glacier Sensitivity to Climate Change in the Monsoonal Himalaya: Implications for Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rupper, S.; Maurer, J. M.; Schaefer, J. M.; Tsering, K.; Rinzin, T.; Dorji, C.; Johnson, E. S.; Cook, E. R.

    2014-12-01

    The rapid retreat of many glaciers in the monsoonal Himalaya is of potential societal concern. However, the retreat pattern in the region has been very heterogeneous, likely due in part to the inherent heterogeneity of climate and glaciers within the region. Assessing the impacts of glacier change on water resources, hydroelectric power, and hazard potential requires a detailed understanding of this potentially complex spatial pattern of glacier sensitivity to climate change. Here we quantify glacier surface-mass balance and meltwater flux across the entire glacierized region of the Bhutanese watershed using a full surface-energy and -mass balance model validated with field data. We then test the sensitivity of the glaciers to climatic change and compare the results to a thirty-year record of glacier volume changes. Bhutan is chosen because it (1) sits in the bulls-eye of the monsoon, (2) has >600 glaciers that exhibit the extreme glacier heterogeneity typical of the Himalayas, and (3) faces many of the economic and hazard challenges associated with glacier changes in the Himalaya. Therefore, the methods and results from this study should be broadly applicable to other regions of the monsoonal Himalaya. Our modeling results show a complex spatial pattern of glacier sensitivity to changes in climate across the Bhutanese Himalaya. However, our results also show that 90% of the total meltwater flux, and that these glaciers are uniformly the glaciers most sensitive to changes in temperature (and less sensitive to other climate variables). We compare these results to a thirty-year record of glacier volume changes over the same region. In particular, we extract DEMs and orthorectified imagery from 1976 historical spy satellite images and 2006 ASTER images. DEM differencing shows that the glaciers that have changed most over the past thirty years also have the highest modeled temperature sensitivity. These results suggest that, despite the complex glacier heterogeneity in

  9. Implications of projected climate change for groundwater recharge in the western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meixner, Thomas; Manning, Andrew H.; Stonestrom, David A.; Allen, Diana M.; Ajami, Hoori; Blasch, Kyle W.; Brookfield, Andrea E.; Castro, Christopher L.; Clark, Jordan F.; Gochis, David J.; Flint, Alan L.; Neff, Kirstin L.; Niraula, Rewati; Rodell, Matthew; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Singha, Kamini; Walvoord, Michelle A.

    2016-03-01

    Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100° longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10-20% in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed

  10. Failed development and vulnerability to climate change in central Asia: implications for food security and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janes, Craig R

    2010-07-01

    This article presents results of research undertaken to identify factors that affect the vulnerability of rural Mongolian herders to climate change. Findings suggest that models of market development instituted since 1990 have failed to recognize and support key elements of the pastoralist adaptive strategy. A retreating state presence has led to the collapse of regulatory regimes needed to safeguard critical common resources. This in turn has produced considerable social differentiation in the countryside, a breakdown in cooperative institutions, and conflicts over water and pasture. In a context of climate change, these changes seriously threaten the sustainability of the rural economy, leading to livelihood insecurity, growing rural poverty, and increasing rates of migration to shantytowns surrounding the capital city of Ulaanbaatar. The newly vulnerable poor are at higher risk for poor health and malnutrition. PMID:20566560

  11. Implications of climate change on wind erosion of agricultural lands in the Columbia plateau

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B.S. Sharratt

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change may impact soil health and productivity as a result of accelerated or decelerated rates of erosion. Previous studies suggest a greater risk of wind erosion on arid and semi-arid lands due to loss of biomass under a future warmer climate. There have been no studies conducted to assess the impact of climate change on wind erosion in the Columbia Plateau of the Pacific Northwest United States where wind erosion of agricultural lands can cause exceedance of national air quality standards. The Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS was used to assess wind erosion and PM10 (particulate matter ≤10 µm in aerodynamic diameter emissions under a future climate projected by downscaling 18 Global Climate Models (GCM for a conservative emissions pathway. Wind erosion simulations were conducted at Lacrosse and Lind, WA and Moro, OR on a winter wheat-summer fallow (WW-SF rotation and at Lind on an additional winter wheat-camelina-summer fallow (WW-Cam-SF rotation. Each rotation was subject to conservation or conventional tillage practices for a baseline (1970–1999 and mid-21st century climate (2035–2064. A significant increase in temperature and nominal increases in precipitation were projected by an ensemble of climate models for the Columbia Plateau by the mid-21st century. Soil and PM10 losses were 25–84% lower for a mid-21st century climate, due in part to greater biomass production associated with CO2 fertilization and warmer temperatures. The reduction in soil and PM10 loss is projected to be more apparent for conservation tillage practices in the future. Soil and PM10 losses were greater from a WW-Cam-SF rotation than WW-SF rotation when conservation tillage practices were employed during the fallow phase of the rotations. Despite accounting for differences in the length of each rotation, annual soil and PM10 losses remained higher for the WW-Cam-SF rotation than the WW-SF rotation. Soil and PM10 losses were more variable across

  12. Future climate change in the Mediterranean area: implications for water use and weed management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stella Lovelli

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Results obtained within research activity from the Climesco Italian Project are summarized. These results suggest that in regards to the impact of climate change in the Mediterranean area, a decrease of water availability and a more frequent occurrence of drought periods are expected. In order to describe the main effects of climate change on water use in some agro-ecosystems in the Mediterranean area we showed that the Penman-Monteith equation can be modified to simulate future changes in reference evapotranspiration by recalibration of the crop resistive parameter. Moreover, the use of adjusted crop coefficients (Kc can help quantify the climate change impact on water use for irrigated crops grown in Southern Italy and elsewhere in the Mediterannean. For this region temperature rise and the concomitant expected rainfall reduction may lead to an increase yearly potential water deficits. For autumn-spring crops a further increase of water deficit is not expected. In contrast for a significant increase of water deficit, and thus of irrigation needs, is expected for spring-summer crops. Another aspect considered in this review is how in the Mediterranean area, drought conditions and warmer temperatures will alter the competitive balance between crops and some weed species. We report experimental data showing how weed aggressiveness and competition is already increasing due to warmer temperatures in the Mediterranean region.

  13. Potential Impacts and Management Implications of Climate Change on Tampa Bay Estuary Critical Coastal Habitats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherwood, Edward T.; Greening, Holly S.

    2014-02-01

    The Tampa Bay estuary is a unique and valued ecosystem that currently thrives between subtropical and temperate climates along Florida's west-central coast. The watershed is considered urbanized (42 % lands developed); however, a suite of critical coastal habitats still persists. Current management efforts are focused toward restoring the historic balance of these habitat types to a benchmark 1950s period. We have modeled the anticipated changes to a suite of habitats within the Tampa Bay estuary using the sea level affecting marshes model under various sea level rise (SLR) scenarios. Modeled changes to the distribution and coverage of mangrove habitats within the estuary are expected to dominate the overall proportions of future critical coastal habitats. Modeled losses in salt marsh, salt barren, and coastal freshwater wetlands by 2100 will significantly affect the progress achieved in "Restoring the Balance" of these habitat types over recent periods. Future land management and acquisition priorities within the Tampa Bay estuary should consider the impending effects of both continued urbanization within the watershed and climate change. This requires the recognition that: (1) the Tampa Bay estuary is trending towards a mangrove-dominated system; (2) the current management paradigm of "Restoring the Balance" may no longer provide realistic, attainable goals; (3) restoration that creates habitat mosaics will prove more resilient in the future; and (4) establishing subtidal and upslope "refugia" may be a future strategy in this urbanized estuary to allow sensitive habitat types (e.g., seagrass and salt barren) to persist under anticipated climate change and SLR impacts.

  14. Climate Change and Groundwater-Implications for Global Food and Water Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, M. D.; Earman, S.; Funk, C. C.

    2011-12-01

    Current projections of 21st Century climate change indicate that warming temperatures and changing precipitation may threaten water sources in many regions. Many projections have been developed of the potential impacts on surface water supplies, but few have yet been developed for groundwater systems. Groundwater systems, though, may be quite vulnerable to the effects of climate change, with changes in precipitation amounts and timing directly challenging recharge and pumpage in many settings, and the effects of warming on evapotranspiration demands and on the intensities of rainfall and runoff indirectly impacting groundwater recharge and discharge rates and locations. Another potential indirect impact of warming on groundwater may be through changes in precipitation form. In many regions, groundwater recharge is preferentially derived from melting snowpacks, because seasonal snowpacks accumulate precipitation from multiple storms prior to releasing it in slow steady streams that are well suited for possible recharge, especially in relatively dry settings. Loss of snowpacks due to warming trends, like those in western North America, is likely to disrupt and, in many settings, decrease past recharge patterns and totals, and indeed recharge may be even more vulnerable to warming effects than is surface runoff in many settings. These potential impacts on groundwater should be of widespread concern because groundwater pumpage supplies much of the water used for irrigated agriculture globally. Recent mapping (by others) has identified broad areas where groundwater withdrawals are outpacing recharge rates beneath Pakistan and northwestern India, the Great Plains of North America, parts of northern Argentina and Bolivia, large parts of central Asia, and elsewhere. Notably, many of these same areas are on the ramparts of mountain ranges that may be particularly prone to loss of snowpack under even moderate warming trends, e.g., as indicated by having large fractions of

  15. Climate change implications and use of early warning systems for global dust storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harriman, Lindsey M.

    2014-01-01

    With increased changes in land cover and global climate, early detection and warning of dust storms in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts. Human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns influence dust storms. More research is needed to analyse these factors of dust mobilisation to create more certainty for the fate of vulnerable populations and ecosystems in the future. Early warning and communication systems, when in place and effectively implemented, can offer some relief to these vulnerable areas. As an issue that affects many regions of the world, there is a profound need to understand the potential changes and ultimately create better early warning systems for dust storms.

  16. Climate change and migration in developing countries: evidence and implications for PRISE countries

    OpenAIRE

    Waldinger, Maria; Fankhauser, Samuel

    2015-01-01

    Headline issue: This paper informs the development community about the effects of climate change on migration patterns within and out of developing countries. It concentrates on the economic aspects of migration and on information that is relevant for the six semi-arid countries that are the focus of the PRISE (Pathways to Resilience in Semi-Arid Economies) project: Burkina Faso, Senegal, Kenya, Tanzania, Pakistan and Tajikistan. Policy intervention is required to reduce potential negative...

  17. Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    According to the National Academy of Sciences in American,the Earth's surface temperature has risen by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated warming during the past two decades. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.Human activities have altered the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases-primarily carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The heat-trapping property of these gases is undisputed although uncertainties exist about exactly how earth's climate responds to them.

  18. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century. 19 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

  19. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century

  20. Implications of global climate change on water resources of the south Asian region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An assessment of future changes in the mean and/or variances of hydrological parameters due to anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases is much warranted for south Asia for developing adaptive response strategies. The evolution of changes in surface meteorological as well as hydrological parameters in the transient numerical experiments with the current state-of-art coupled climate models holds much promise for a better understanding of the interannual variability of climate and its change on a regional scale. A plausible future hydrological scenario for the south Asian region based on the numerical results obtained from the reference control and greenhouse warming simulations (using the Business-as-Usual scenario of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere) with the Hamburg climate model is presented in this paper. For validation of regional-scale model-simulated hydrology and the assessment of future changes, analysis of data has been performed for annual mean conditions as well as for two seasons, namely, winter (December to February) and summer (June to August). Their results suggest a rise in annual mean surface air temperature of about 1.0 to 2.5 C over the ocean and between 2.0 to 4.5 C over the land regions of south Asia during the next hundred years. During the NH-winter, surface warming in the land regions of India and China is considerably higher (3.6 C) than during the NH-summer (2.7 C). The model simulates an increase in total (averaged for land points over the study area) annual precipitation of about 16 cm per year in a warmer atmosphere

  1. Recruitment limitation of long-lived conifers: implications for climate change responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroiss, Steve J; Hillerslambers, Janneke

    2015-05-01

    Seed availability and suitable microsites for germination are likely to severely constrain the responses of plant species to climate change, especially at and beyond range edges. For example, range shifts may be slow if seed availability is low at range edges due to low parent-tree abundance or reduced fecundity. Even when seeds are available, climatic and biotic factors may further limit the availability of suitable microsites for recruitment. Unfortunately, the importance of seed and microsite limitation during range shifts remains unknown, since few studies have examined both factors simultaneously, particularly across species' ranges. To address this issue, we assessed seed availability and the factors influencing germination for six conifer species across a large environmental gradient encompassing their elevational ranges. Specifically, we assessed (1) how parent-tree abundance influences annual seed availability; (2) how seed limitation varies across species' ranges; (3) how climatic and biotic factors affect germination; and (4) how seed and suitable microsite availability covary annually within and among species. We found that seed availability declined toward species' upper range edges for most species, primarily due to low parent-tree abundance rather than declining fecundity. Range expansions are thus likely to be lagged with respect to climate change, as long generation times preclude rapid increases in tree density. Negative impacts of canopy cover on germination rates suggest range shifts will further be slowed by competition with existing vegetation. Moreover, years of high seed production were generally correlated among species, but not correlated with the availability of suitable microsites, implying that seedling competition and the interaction between seed and microsite limitation will further constrain recruitment. However, the nature of microsite limitation varied strongly between treeline and low-elevation species due to differing responses

  2. Observed and projected climate change implications for urban infrastructure and society in the Russian Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Streletskiy, D. A.; Shiklomanov, N. I.; Efimov, S. V.; Shkolnik, I.

    2012-12-01

    The discoveries of mineral resources followed by an extensive economic development of the Russian North in 1960s led to a development of complex infrastructure on permafrost and urbanization of the Russian Arctic. Despite the mass migration from the northern regions, followed by the collapse of the Soviet Union and the diminishing government support, the Russian Arctic inherited massive infrastructure and remained predominantly urban. Currently, only in five districts bordering Arctic Ocean more than 1.4 million people live in urban-style buildings built on permafrost. Majority of the buildings are constructed assuming the equilibrium conditions of heat-exchange between atmosphere and permafrost underneath. This is usually achieved by construction on piles with ventilated cellars allowing ground cooling in a winter and shading in a summer. The ability of the foundations to carry structural load or foundation bearing capacity (FBC) depends on permafrost properties and changes according to permafrost temperature and active-layer depth. Climate warming observed in recent decades created conditions of diminishing FBC and resulted in deformations and failures of structures built on permafrost. This work is focused on quantitative assessment of these changes at a regional scale. In order to estimate the role of climate change on stability of structures build according to the passive principle, the permafrost-geotechnical model was developed. The historical changes were assessed by comparing model results for period associated with industrialization and construction boom in the Russian North (1965-1975) and present conditions (1995-2005) using NCEP climatic datasets. Projected changes in FBC according to A2 IPCC scenario for the mid-21st century (2041-2060) relative to baseline period (1981-2000) were assessed using output from the ensemble of MGO RCM climate change simulations. It has been found that substantial decrease in FBC will likely occur for the majority of

  3. Climatic changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    are now ques-tioning this. Measurements as dykes will changes or cut off the spatial and func-tional coherence between the city structure and the sea. Questions regarding the status and the appropriation of these ‘new’ adaptive func-tions in landscapes and open urban spaces by ordinary people must...

  4. Aerosol Absorption by Black Carbon and Dust: Implications of Climate Change and Air Quality in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, Mian

    2010-01-01

    Atmospheric aerosol distributions from 2000 to 2007 are simulated with the global model GOCART to attribute light absorption by aerosol to its composition and sources. We show the seasonal and interannual variations of absorbing aerosols in the atmosphere over Asia, mainly black carbon and dust. and their linkage to the changes of anthropogenic and dust emissions in the region. We compare our results with observations from satellite and ground-based networks, and estimate the importance of black carbon and dust on regional climate forcing and air quality.

  5. Sensitivity of hydrological modeling to meteorological data and implications for climate change studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There are uncertainties associated with the use of hydrological models. This study aims to analyse one source of uncertainty associated with hydrological modeling, particularly in the context of climate change studies on water resources. Additional intent of this study is to compare the ability of some meteorological data sources, used in conjunction with an hydrological model, to reproduce the hydrologic regime of a watershed. A case study on a watershed of south-western Quebec, Canada using five different sources of meteorological data as input to an offline hydrological model are presented in this paper. Data used came from weather stations, NCEP reanalysis, ERA40 reanalysis and two Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) runs driven by NCEP and ERA40 reanalysis, providing atmospheric driving boundary conditions to this limited-area climate model. To investigate the sensitivity of simulated streamflow to different sources of meteorological data, we first calibrated the hydrological model with each of the meteorological data sets over the 1961-1980 period. The five different sets of parameters of the hydrological model were then used to simulate streamflow of the 1981-2000 validation period with the five meteorological data sets as inputs. The 25 simulated streamflow series have been compared to the observed streamflow of the watershed. The five meteorological data sets do not have the same ability, when used with the hydrological model, to reproduce streamflow. Our results show also that the hydrological model parameters used may have an important influence on results such as water balance, but it is linked with the differences that may have in the characteristics of the meteorological data used. For climate change impacts assessments on water resources, we have found that there is an uncertainty associated with the meteorological data used to calibrate the model. For expected changes on mean annual flows of the Chateauguay River, our results vary from a small

  6. Implications of Expected Climate Change in the Eastern African Coastal Region: an Overview

    OpenAIRE

    Ogallo, L.J.; Alusa, A.L.

    1992-01-01

    Anticipated global warming as a result of the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere was the most important subject discussed during the fifteenth session of the Governing Council of UNEP and at the Second World Climate Conference. The so-called greenhouse effect is a most pressing environmental problem to the extent that it involves many scientific disciplines and hence presents major challenges. The greenhouse gases (CO2,' CFCs, CH4, N2O, O3, etc.) have the effect of changing the ...

  7. Climate Change Schools Project...

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinzey, Krista

    2010-01-01

    This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools Project…

  8. Climate changes your business

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Businesses face much bigger climate change costs than they realise. That is the conclusion of Climate Changes Your Business. The climate change risks that companies should be paying more attention to are physical risks, regulatory risks as well as risk to reputation and the emerging risk of litigation, says the report. It argues that the risks associated with climate change tend to be underestimated

  9. The Potential Impacts of Climate Change Factors on Freshwater Eutrophication: Implications for Research and Countermeasures of Water Management in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Xia

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Water eutrophication has become one of the most serious aquatic environmental problems around the world. More and more research has indicated climate change as a major natural factor that will lead to the acceleration of eutrophication in rivers and lakes. However, understanding the mechanism of climate change’s effect on water eutrophication is difficult due to the uncertainties caused by its complex, non-linear process. There is considerable uncertainty about the magnitude of future temperature changes, and how these will drive eutrophication in water bodies at regional scales under the effect of human activities. This review collects the existing international and domestic literature from the last 10 years, discussing the most sensitive factors of climate change (i.e., temperature, precipitation, wind, and solar radiation and analyzing their interaction with water eutrophication. Case studies of serious eutrophication and algal bloom problems in China are discussed to further demonstrate the conclusion. Finally, adaptation countermeasures and related implications are proposed in order to foster the development of sustainability strategies for water management in China.

  10. Implications of climate change on human comfort in buildings: evidence from Nkontompo community of Sekondi-Takoradi, Ghana

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amos-Abanyie, S. [Kwame Nkrumah Univ. of Science and Technology, Kumasi (GH)

    2006-07-01

    Climate change has become the most talked about issue in recent times. The impact of climate change is likely to become more evident in the coming decades. Currently, atmospheric conditions, especially in the dry season, are getting hotter and drier with increased heat waves. Increased demand for air conditioning for space cooling as a result of internal discomfort in buildings is already manifesting. This could put an additional stress on the already over-burdened energy capactiy of the nation. The study on implications of climate change on human comfort in buidlings was conducted in Nkontompo community, a suburb of Sekondi-Takoradi Metropolitan area of the Shama-Ahanta District of the Western Region of Ghana. The objectives of this study are to assemble and disseminate information about some of the possible impacts of climate change on the built environment. This is to set the platform for building professionals to identify possible adaptive measures to serve as basis for development of standards to maintain and enhance the quality of life in buildings. The results showed that there were significant changes in temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. A rise in temperature and humidity levels constitutes a potential hazard to health and human comfort and accelerates many degradation processes and material damage. Subsequently, the amount of energy needed to maintain the condition of air in spaces at comfort levels keeps increasing. It is therefore imperative that landlords and other property owners should be effectively guided by qualified professionals within the framework of policy guidelines based on sound research.

  11. Environmental equity in air quality management: local and international implications for human health and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Marie S; Kinney, Patrick L; Cohen, Aaron J

    2008-01-01

    The health burden of environmental exposures, including ambient air pollution and climate-change-related health impacts, is not equally distributed between or within regions and countries. These inequalities are currently receiving increased attention in environmental research as well as enhanced appreciation in environmental policy, where calls for environmental equity are more frequently heard. The World Health Organization (WHO) 2006 Global Update of the Air Quality Guidelines attempted to address the global-scale inequalities in exposures to air pollution and the burden of diseases due to air pollution. The guidelines stop short, however, of addressing explicitly the inequalities in exposure and adverse health effects within countries and urban areas due to differential distribution of sources of air pollution such as motor vehicles and local industry, and differences in susceptibility to the adverse health effects attributed to air pollution. These inequalities, may, however, be addressed in local air quality and land use management decisions. Locally, community-based participatory research can play an important role in documenting potential inequities and fostering corrective action. Research on environmental inequities will also benefit from current efforts to (1) better understand social determinants of health and (2) apply research evidence to reduce health disparities. Similarly, future research and policy action will benefit from stronger linkages between equity concerns related to health consequences of both air pollution exposure and climate change, since combustion products are important contributors to both of these environmental problems. PMID:18569628

  12. Implications of electric power sector restructuring on climate change mitigation in Argentina

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hasson, G.; Bouille, D. [Instituto de Economia Energetica, (Argentina); Redlinger, R. [UNEP, (Denmark)

    2000-05-01

    The Argentine electricity industry has undergone fundamental reforms since 1992, involving large-scale privatisation, and competition in generation and wholesale power markets. In terms of climate change mitigation, these reforms have had the beneficial effect of encouraging improved generation efficiency among thermal power plants and improved end-use consumption efficiency among large industrial firms. However, the reforms have also had the negative effect (from a climate change perspective) of encouraging an ever-increasing use of natural gas combustion for electricity generation, greatly diminishing the role of hydroelectric power which had previously played an important role in the Agentine electricity sector. This report examines the current structure and regulations of the Argentine electricity system and analyses the forces at work which are influencing current technology choices, both in terms of power generation and end-use consumption. The report goes on to examine international experiences in promoting renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies; and finally, the report considers the applicability of these various policy mechanisms within the Agentine context. (EHS)

  13. Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Human Health Implications in the Asia Pacific Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashim, Jamal Hisham; Hashim, Zailina

    2016-03-01

    The Asia Pacific region is regarded as the most disaster-prone area of the world. Since 2000, 1.2 billion people have been exposed to hydrometeorological hazards alone through 1215 disaster events. The impacts of climate change on meteorological phenomena and environmental consequences are well documented. However, the impacts on health are more elusive. Nevertheless, climate change is believed to alter weather patterns on the regional scale, giving rise to extreme weather events. The impacts from extreme weather events are definitely more acute and traumatic in nature, leading to deaths and injuries, as well as debilitating and fatal communicable diseases. Extreme weather events include heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, tropical cyclones, heavy rain, and snowfalls. Globally, within the 20-year period from 1993 to 2012, more than 530 000 people died as a direct result of almost 15 000 extreme weather events, with losses of more than US$2.5 trillion in purchasing power parity. PMID:26377857

  14. Pollution abatement from road transport: cross-sectoral implications, climate co-benefits and behavioural change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    With the abatement potential of end-of-pipe technologies for road transport becoming increasingly marginal, and with greater emissions reductions still needed in order to reduce pollution, alternative strategies involving behavioural change and choices between fossil fuelled or low carbon vehicles becomes more important. The environmental requirements include local air quality objectives, meeting national emissions ceilings to limit transboundary effects, and to aspire to significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper we use the BRUTAL sub-model of the UK integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM) to investigate a selection of alternative strategies including downsizing of cars, switching from petrol to diesel, and the introduction of electric, bio-fuelled or hydrogen vehicles into the fleet, relative to a business-as-usual projection for 2020. Projected impacts upon air quality limit values, national emissions ceilings and CO2 emissions are assessed in relation to local, national and international objectives. We discuss related life-cycle impacts, implications for infrastructure, and potential impacts upon emissions from other sectors in order to highlight the full potential implications of the different strategies within the context of changes resulting from other policy developments at different scales.

  15. Early Paleogene Arctic terrestrial ecosystems affected by the change of polar hydrology under global warming:Implications for modern climate change at high latitudes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gaytha; A.; LANGLOIS

    2010-01-01

    Our understanding of both the role and impact of Arctic environmental changes under the current global warming climate is rather limited despite efforts of improved monitoring and wider assessment through remote sensing technology. Changes of Arctic ecosystems under early Paleogene warming climate provide an analogue to evaluate long-term responses of Arctic environmental alteration to global warming. This study reviews Arctic terrestrial ecosystems and their transformation under marked change of hydrological conditions during the warmest period in early Cenozoic, the Paleocene and Eocene. We describe a new approach to quantitatively reconstruct high latitudinal paleohydrology using compound-specific hydrogen isotope analysis which applies empirically derived genus-specific hydrogen isotope fractionations to in situ biomolecules from fossil plants. We propose a moisture recycling model at the Arctic to explain the reconstructed hydrogen isotope signals of ancient high latitude precipitation during early Paleogene, which bears implications to the likely change of modern Arctic ecosystems under the projected accelerated global warming.

  16. CLIMATE CHANGE, Change International Negociations?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Xiaosheng

    2009-01-01

    @@ Climate change is one of key threats to human beings who have to deal with.According to Bali Action Plan released after the 2007 Bali Climate Talk held in Indonesia,the United Nations Framework on Climate Change(UNFCCC) has launched a two-year process to negotiate a post-2012 climate arrangement after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 and the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference will seal a final deal on post-2012 climate regime in December,2009.For this,the United Nation Chief Ban Ki Moon called 2009"the year ofclimate change".

  17. Revisiting the weather effect on energy consumption: Implications for the impact of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We revisit statistical estimates for the relation between weather and energy consumption in Massachusetts using times series for heating degree hours that are calculated from hourly data with different set points and set backs. Using hourly values to calculate heating degree hours supports models that generate more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than models estimated from time series for heating degree-days calculated the traditional way. Furthermore, the set point and set back used to calculate heating degree hours generates statistically measurable differences in the accuracy of out-of-sample forecasts. These results indicate that assuming a set point of 65 °F biases statistical estimates for the effect of a warming climate on energy use. We also quantify a new mechanism by which climate change will affect energy use—the temperature of tap water. As climate warms, the temperature of tap water that supplies hot water tanks rises, which reduces the amount of energy consumed to provide hot water. Finally, we use the statistical models to generate a spatial (1 km×1 km) and temporal (hourly) downscaling of carbon emissions that will be used to simulate a model for atmospheric transport and validate our understanding of the sources and sinks of carbon for the urban atmosphere. - Highlights: • Hourly measures of temperature generate more accurate models of energy use. • Set points other than 65 °F generate more accurate models of energy use. • Temperature of tap water affects energy use via domestic hot water. • Models can be downscaled to generate hourly carbon emissions at 1 km×1 km

  18. Climate change: The necessary, the possible and the desirable Earth League climate statement on the implications for climate policy from the 5th IPCC Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rockström, Johan; Brasseur, Guy; Hoskins, Brian; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schellnhuber, John; Kabat, Pavel; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Gong, Peng; Schlosser, Peter; Máñez Costa, Maria; Humble, April; Eyre, Nick; Gleick, Peter; James, Rachel; Lucena, Andre; Masera, Omar; Moench, Marcus; Schaeffer, Roberto; Seitzinger, Sybil; van der Leeuw, Sander; Ward, Bob; Stern, Nicholas; Hurrell, James; Srivastava, Leena; Morgan, Jennifer; Nobre, Carlos; Sokona, Youba; Cremades, Roger; Roth, Ellinor; Liverman, Diana; Arnott, James

    2014-12-01

    The development of human civilisations has occurred at a time of stable climate. This climate stability is now threatened by human activity. The rising global climate risk occurs at a decisive moment for world development. World nations are currently discussing a global development agenda consequent to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which ends in 2015. It is increasingly possible to envisage a world where absolute poverty is largely eradicated within one generation and where ambitious goals on universal access and equal opportunities for dignified lives are adopted. These grand aspirations for a world population approaching or even exceeding nine billion in 2050 is threatened by substantial global environmental risks and by rising inequality. Research shows that development gains, in both rich and poor nations, can be undermined by social, economic and ecological problems caused by human-induced global environmental change. Climate risks, and associated changes in marine and terrestrial ecosystems that regulate the resilience of the climate system, are at the forefront of these global risks. We, as citizens with a strong engagement in Earth system science and socio-ecological dynamics, share the vision of a more equitable and prosperous future for the world, yet we also see threats to this future from shifts in climate and environmental processes. Without collaborative action now, our shared Earth system may not be able to sustainably support a large proportion of humanity in the decades ahead.

  19. Sensitivity of stream water age to climatic variability and land use change: implications for water quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soulsby, Chris; Birkel, Christian; Geris, Josie; Tetzlaff, Doerthe

    2016-04-01

    Advances in the use of hydrological tracers and their integration into rainfall runoff models is facilitating improved quantification of stream water age distributions. This is of fundamental importance to understanding water quality dynamics over both short- and long-time scales, particularly as water quality parameters are often associated with water sources of markedly different ages. For example, legacy nitrate pollution may reflect deeper waters that have resided in catchments for decades, whilst more dynamics parameters from anthropogenic sources (e.g. P, pathogens etc) are mobilised by very young (5 year), high resolution (daily) isotope time series in modelling studies for different catchments to show how variable stream water age distributions can be a result of hydroclimatic variability and the implications for understanding water quality. We will also use examples from catchments undergoing rapid urbanisation, how the resulting age distributions of stream water change in a predictable way as a result of modified flow paths. The implication for the management of water quality in urban catchments will be discussed.

  20. Economic and Energy Development in China: Policy Options and Implications for Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McElroy, M. B.; Nielsen, C.

    2003-01-23

    The Harvard University Center for the Environment and partner institutions in China established a multidisciplinary program of integrated research on energy-related environmental issues, local air pollution and global climate change, in China and their role in U.S.-Chinese relations. Major research streams included: (a) developing a dynamic, multi-sector model of the Chinese economy that can estimate energy use, emission, and health damages from pollution, and using this model to simulate broad economic effects of market-based pollution-control policies; (b) developing a regionally disaggregated model of technology and investment choice in the Chinese electric power sector; (c) applying an atmospheric chemical tracer transport model to investigate carbon uptake in Eurasis (notably China) and North America, and to inform observational strategies for CO{sub 2} in China and elsewhere.

  1. Surface elevation change and vegetation distribution dynamics in a subtropical coastal wetland: Implications for coastal wetland response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Kerrylee; Saintilan, Neil; Woodroffe, Colin D.

    2014-08-01

    The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise is receiving global attention and observed changes in the distribution of mangrove and salt marsh are increasingly associated with global climate change, particularly sea-level and temperature rise, and potentially elevated carbon dioxide. Processes operating over smaller-spatial scales, such as rainfall variability and nutrient enrichment are also proposed as possible short-term drivers of changes in the distribution of mangrove and salt marsh. We consider the response of mangrove and salt marsh in a subtropical estuary to changes in environmental variables over a 12 year period by comparing rates of surface elevation change and vegetation distribution dynamics to hydrological and climatic variables, specifically water level and rainfall. This period of analysis captured inter-annual variability in sea level and rainfall associated with different phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We found that the mangrove and salt marsh trend of increasing elevation was primarily controlled by position within the tidal prism, in this case defined by inundation depth and distance to the tidal channel. Rainfall was not a primary driver of elevation trends in mangrove and salt marsh, but rainfall and water level variability did influence variability in elevation over the study period, though cross-correlation of these factors confounds identification of a single process driving this variability. These results highlight the scale-dependence of coastal wetland vegetation distribution dynamics; the longer-term trend of surface elevation increase and mangrove encroachment of salt marsh correlated with global sea-level trends, while short-term variability in surface elevation was related to local variability in water level and rainfall. Rates of surface elevation increase were found to lag behind rates of water level change within the Tweed River, which may facilitate further expansion of mangrove into salt marsh. This

  2. Implications of climate change on crop water requirements in arid region: An example of Al-Jouf, Saudi Arabia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shakhawat Chowdhury

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated possible implications of climate change on crop water requirements (CWRs from 2011 to 2050 in Al-Jouf, Saudi Arabia. CWR were predicted for four scenarios: (i current temperature and rainfall (S1; (ii temperature in 2050 and current state of rainfall (S2; (iii rainfall in 2050 and current state of temperature (S3 and (iv temperature and rainfall in 2050 (S4. Assuming no change in the regulations relating to agriculture and irrigation in future, CWR were predicted to be 873 and 931 million cubic meters (MCM per year for the S1 and S4 scenarios, respectively, indicating an increase of 58 MCM from 2011 to 2050. On an average, 1 °C increase in temperature may increase the overall CWR by 2.9% in this region. Following linear pattern of increase, slope of CWR was determined as 1.5 MCM/year from 2011, which is equivalent to the CWR of producing approximately 600 tons of wheat/year. The increase of CWR was due to the increase in temperature mainly, while the effect of rainfall changes was minimal. Sensitivity analysis on crop growing seasons showed that the shift of wheat growing season might conserve significant amount of groundwater. This study might be useful in explaining the negative effects of climate change on CWR in Al-Jouf and better planning for water resources management.

  3. Climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

  4. Mercury in coniferous and deciduous upland forests in northern New England, USA: implications of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, J. B.; Friedland, A. J.

    2015-11-01

    Climatic changes in the northeastern US are expected to cause coniferous stands to transition to deciduous stands over the next hundred years. Mercury (Hg) sequestration in forest soils may change as a result. In order to understand potential effects of such a transition, we studied aboveground vegetation and soils at paired coniferous and deciduous stands on eight mountains in Vermont and New Hampshire, USA. Organic horizons at coniferous stands accumulated more total Hg (THg; 42 ± 6 g ha-1) than deciduous stands (30 ± 4 g ha-1). Total Hg pools in the mineral horizons were similar for coniferous (46 ± 8 g ha-1) and deciduous stands (45 ± 7 g ha-1). Soil properties (C, % clay, and pH) explained 56 % of the variation in mineral soil Hg concentration when multiply regressed. Foliar and bole wood Hg concentrations were generally greater for coniferous species than deciduous species. Using allometric equations, we estimated that aboveground accumulation of Hg in foliage and woody biomass was similar between vegetation types but that coniferous stands have significantly smaller annual litterfall fluxes (0.03 g ha-1 yr-1) than deciduous stands (0.24 g ha-1 yr-1). We conclude that organic horizon Hg accumulation is influenced by vegetation type but mineral horizon Hg accumulation is primarily controlled by soil properties. Further investigations into the effect of vegetation type on volatilization, atmospheric deposition, and leaching rates are needed to constrain regional Hg cycling rates.

  5. Water and energy budgets of hurricanes and implications for climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John

    2007-12-01

    On the basis of simulations of hurricane Katrina in August 2005 with the advanced Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model at 4 km resolution without parameterized convection, empirical relationships are computed between the maximum simulated wind and the surface fluxes and precipitation and provide a reasonable fit to the data. The best track data set of global observed tropical cyclones is used to estimate the frequency that storms of a given strength occur over the globe after 1970. For 1990-2005 the total surface heat loss by the tropical ocean in hurricanes category 1 to 5 within 400 km of the center of the storms is estimated to be about 0.53 × 1022 J a-1 (where a is year) (0.17 PW). The enthalpy loss due to hurricanes computed on the basis of precipitation is about a factor of 3.4 greater (0.58 PW), owing to the addition of the surface fluxes from outside 400 km radius and moisture convergence into the storms typically from as far from the eye as 1600 km. Globally these values correspond to 0.33 W m-2 for evaporation, or 1.13 W m-2 for precipitation. Changes over time reflect basin differences and a prominent role for El Niño, and the most active period globally was 1989 to 1997. Strong positive trends from 1970 to 2005 occur in these inferred surface fluxes and precipitation arising from increases in intensity of storms and also higher sea surface temperatures. Confidence in this result is limited by uncertainties in the best track tropical cyclone data. Nonetheless, the results highlight the importance of surface energy exchanges in global energetics of the climate system and are suggestive of the deficiencies in climate models owing to their inadequate representation of hurricanes.

  6. Implications of climate change scenarios for agriculture in alpine regions--a case study in the Swiss Rhone catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuhrer, J; Smith, P; Gobiet, A

    2014-09-15

    Coping with climate change in agriculture requires knowledge of trends in agro-climatic conditions with a focus at the smaller scales where decisions are taken. As part of the EU FP7 ACQWA project, the situation was analyzed for agriculture in the case of the Swiss Rhone catchment (Valais) where cultivation of permanent crops (orchards and vineyards) and livestock production are the most important agro-economic activities. The aim of this study was to use daily data from four downscaled and bias corrected transient climate change scenarios to analyze changes in water and temperature related indices over the period 1951-2050 for three locations (Aigle, Sion, Montana) that are representative of different production zones in the catchment. The results indicate that most relevant implications are caused by projected changes in temperature and not in precipitation. They indicate an extension of the thermal growing season with potentially positive effects on pasture and livestock production, most pronounced at the mountain site (Montana), but a trend towards increasing risks of frost in permanent crops and in heat stress for livestock at the valley bottom (Aigle, Sion). The increase in water requirement for irrigation in 2021-2050 relative to 1981-2009 is moderate (4-16%, depending on location). However, in years with low amounts of snow and rain, in small catchments with a nival regime, reduced water supply by rivers could restrict the surface area of grassland that can be irrigated, particularly during springtime. It is concluded that coping with heat-related risks may be most needed at the lower cropland and pasture sites while water-related issues would become more relevant in more elevated locations where pasture-based livestock production is the dominant type of agricultural land use. PMID:23830922

  7. On the uncertainty of phenological responses to climate change and its implication for terrestrial biosphere models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Migliavacca

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Phenology, the timing of recurring life cycle events, controls numerous land surface feedbacks to the climate systems through the regulation of exchanges of carbon, water and energy between the biosphere and atmosphere. Land surface models, however, are known to have systematic errors in the simulation of spring phenology, which potentially could propagate to uncertainty in modeled responses to future climate change. Here, we analyzed the Harvard Forest phenology record to investigate and characterize the sources of uncertainty in phenological forecasts and the subsequent impacts on model forecasts of carbon and water cycling in the future. Using a model-data fusion approach, we combined information from 20 yr of phenological observations of 11 North American woody species with 12 phenological models of different complexity to predict leaf bud-burst.

    The evaluation of different phenological models indicated support for spring warming models with photoperiod limitations and, though to a lesser extent, to chilling models based on the alternating model structure.

    We assessed three different sources of uncertainty in phenological forecasts: parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty, and driver uncertainty. The latter was characterized running the models to 2099 using 2 different IPCC climate scenarios (A1fi vs. B1, i.e. high CO2 emissions vs. low CO2 emissions scenario. Parameter uncertainty was the smallest (average 95% CI: 2.4 day century−1 for scenario B1 and 4.5 day century−1 for A1fi, whereas driver uncertainty was the largest (up to 8.4 day century−1 in the simulated trends. The uncertainty related to model structure is also large and the predicted bud-burst trends as well as the shape of the smoothed projections varied somewhat among models (±7.7 day century−1 for A1fi, ±3.6 day century−1 for B1. The forecast sensitivity of bud-burst to

  8. On the uncertainty of phenological responses to climate change, and implications for a terrestrial biosphere model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Migliavacca

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Phenology, the timing of recurring life cycle events, controls numerous land surface feedbacks to the climate system through the regulation of exchanges of carbon, water and energy between the biosphere and atmosphere.

    Terrestrial biosphere models, however, are known to have systematic errors in the simulation of spring phenology, which potentially could propagate to uncertainty in modeled responses to future climate change. Here, we used the Harvard Forest phenology record to investigate and characterize sources of uncertainty in predicting phenology, and the subsequent impacts on model forecasts of carbon and water cycling. Using a model-data fusion approach, we combined information from 20 yr of phenological observations of 11 North American woody species, with 12 leaf bud-burst models that varied in complexity.

    Akaike's Information Criterion indicated support for spring warming models with photoperiod limitations and, to a lesser extent, models that included chilling requirements.

    We assessed three different sources of uncertainty in phenological forecasts: parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty, and driver uncertainty. The latter was characterized running the models to 2099 using 2 different IPCC climate scenarios (A1fi vs. B1, i.e. high CO2 emissions vs. low CO2 emissions scenario. Parameter uncertainty was the smallest (average 95% Confidence Interval – CI: 2.4 days century−1 for scenario B1 and 4.5 days century−1 for A1fi, whereas driver uncertainty was the largest (up to 8.4 days century−1 in the simulated trends. The uncertainty related to model structure is also large and the predicted bud-burst trends as well as the shape of the smoothed projections varied among models (±7.7 days century−1 for A1fi, ±3.6 days century−1 for B1. The forecast sensitivity of bud-burst to temperature (i.e. days bud-burst advanced per

  9. Seasonality of Climate Drives the Number of Tree Hollows in Eastern Australia: Implications of a Changing Climate

    OpenAIRE

    Hunter, John T.

    2015-01-01

    Tree hollow number is investigated across an altitudinal and climatic gradient in eastern Australia. The relationship between seasonal climate and local site factors to hollow number at a regional scale was investigated. Moisture retention, rainfall, and solar radiation during the summer period were the highest contributing factors to hollow number in the model presented. The relationship of hollow number with the significant variables was unimodal in nature with either extreme causing a decl...

  10. The Ethics of Belief, Cognition, and Climate Change Pseudoskepticism: Implications for Public Discourse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torcello, Lawrence

    2016-01-01

    The relationship between knowledge, belief, and ethics is an inaugural theme in philosophy; more recently, under the title "ethics of belief" philosophers have worked to develop the appropriate methodology for studying the nexus of epistemology, ethics, and psychology. The title "ethics of belief" comes from a 19th-century paper written by British philosopher and mathematician W.K. Clifford. Clifford argues that we are morally responsible for our beliefs because (a) each belief that we form creates the cognitive circumstances for related beliefs to follow, and (b) we inevitably influence each other through those beliefs. This study argues that recent cognitive research supports Cliffordian insights regarding patterns of belief formation and social influence. From the confirmation offered by such research, it follows that informational accuracy holds serious ethical significance in public discourse. Although scientific and epistemological matters are not always thought to be linked to normative morality, this study builds on Clifford's initial insights to show their linkage is fundamental to inquiry itself. In turn, Clifford's ethical and epistemic outline can inform a framework grounded in "public reason" under which seemingly opposed science communication strategies (e.g., "information deficit" and "cultural cognition" models) are philosophically united. With public discourse on climate change as the key example, empirically informed and grounded strategies for science communication in the public sphere are considered. PMID:26799170

  11. Geochronology and Stratigraphy of Pluvial Argentinean Lakes: Implications for Quaternary Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartwright, A.

    2009-12-01

    Shoreline deposits of pluvial lake systems can provide direct evidence of the timing and duration of lake high stands. Complemented by careful stratigraphic and geochemical analysis, these records also contain important paleoenvironmental information. Two lake systems were studied as part of a global effort to understand major climatic changes during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 24-18 ka) and the following deglaciation (18-13 ka). Today, both of the studied regions are arid, and the lake basins contain much smaller lakes than in the past. Laguna Cari-Laufquen is located at 41°S and the modern basin is occupied by two lakes: Cari-Laufquen Grande and Chica. Preserved shorelines and sediments show these two lakes rose and merged multiple times during the Late Quaternary. An extensive radiocarbon geochronology show the lake was the highest during the LGM, with several smaller, more recent lake oscillations in the last thousand years. The second lake system in this study is Laguna Bebedero, located at 33°S in western Argentina. Previous studies show the highest shorelines date to 23-16,000 yrs BP. Our new radiocarbon dates help constrain the timing of the highstands - and show highstands during the deglacial period. Our lake highstand evidence provides a unique opportunity to reconstruct shifts in Atlantic (easterly)- or Pacific (westerly)-driven moisture. Geochemical studies of shell, water chemical analysis, and geospatial analysis also help to constrain hydrologic balance and paleoenvironmental conditions. Comparison of paleohydrologic records in South America. From top: Cariaco Basin - reconstructed sea-surface temperatures from Lea et al., 2003, Bolivian Lakes - Uyuni lake system phases from shoreline data (Placzek et al., 2006), Atacama Wetlands - wet events above local water table (Quade et al., 2008), Laguna Bebedero and Laguna Cari-Laufquen - lake level changes from this study.

  12. Mercury in coniferous and deciduous upland forests in Northern New England, USA: implications from climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, J. B.; Friedland, A. J.

    2015-07-01

    Climatic changes in the northeastern US are expected to cause coniferous stands to transition to deciduous stands over the next hundred years. Mercury (Hg) sequestration in forest soils may change as a result. In order to understand potential effects of this transition, we studied aboveground vegetation and soils at paired coniferous and deciduous stands on eight mountains in Vermont and New Hampshire, US. Organic horizons at coniferous stands accumulated more Total Hg (THg) (42 ± 6 g ha-1) than deciduous stands (30 ± 4 g ha-1). Total Hg pools in the mineral horizons were similar for coniferous (46 ± 8 g ha-1) and deciduous stands (45 ± 7 g ha-1). Soil properties (C, % clay, and pH) explained 56 % of the variation in mineral soil Hg concentration when multiple regressed. Foliar and bole wood Hg concentrations were generally greater for coniferous species than deciduous species. We estimated Hg mean residence time (MRT) in the organic and mineral horizons at coniferous and deciduous stands using a simple two-box model. Organic horizon MRT were longer at coniferous stands (183 ± 44 yr) than deciduous stands (65 ± 15 yr). Mineral soil horizon MRT values were also longer for coniferous stands (386 ± 57 yr) than for deciduous stands (188 ± 27 yr). We concluded that organic horizon Hg accumulation is influenced by vegetation type but mineral horizons are primarily affected by soil properties. Further investigations into the effect of vegetation type on volatilization, atmospheric deposition, and leaching rates are needed to constrain regional Hg cycling rates.

  13. Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 2014 Fact sheets Features Commentaries 2014 Multimedia Contacts Climate change and health Fact sheet Reviewed June 2016 ... in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution. Climate change Over the last 50 years, human activities – ...

  14. Balance between climate change mitigation benefits and land use impacts of bioenergy : Conservation implications for European birds

    OpenAIRE

    Meller, Laura; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pironon, Samuel; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Hof, Andries; Cabeza, Mar

    2015-01-01

    Both climate change and habitat modification exert serious pressure on biodiversity. Although climate change mitigation has been identified as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation, bioenergy remains a controversial mitigation action due to its potential negative ecological and socio-economic impacts which arise through habitat modification by land use change. While the debate continues, the separate or simultaneous impacts of both climate change and bioenergy on biodiversity ha...

  15. Economy-wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change. Sea Level Rise

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bosello, F. [Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei FEEM, Venice (Italy); Roson, R. [The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy); Tol, R.S.J. [Institute for Environmental Studies IVM, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2007-07-15

    The economy-wide implications of sea level rise in 2050 are estimated using a static computable general equilibrium model. This allows for a better estimate of the welfare effects of sea level rise than the common direct cost estimates; and for an estimate of the impact of sea level rise on greenhouse gas emissions. Overall, general equilibrium effects increase the welfare costs of sea level rise, but not necessarily in every sector or region. In the absence of coastal protection, economies that rely most on agriculture are hit hardest. Although energy is substituted for land, overall energy consumption falls with the shrinking economy, hurting energy exporters. With full coastal protection, GDP increases, particularly in regions with substantial dike building, but utility falls, least in regions that protect their coasts and export energy. Energy prices rise and energy consumption falls. The costs of full protection exceed the costs of losing land. The results also show direct costs - the usual method for estimating welfare changes due to sea level rise - are a bad approximation of the general equilibrium welfare effects; previous estimates of the economic impact of sea level rise are therefore biased.

  16. Economy-wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change. Sea Level Rise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The economy-wide implications of sea level rise in 2050 are estimated using a static computable general equilibrium model. This allows for a better estimate of the welfare effects of sea level rise than the common direct cost estimates; and for an estimate of the impact of sea level rise on greenhouse gas emissions. Overall, general equilibrium effects increase the welfare costs of sea level rise, but not necessarily in every sector or region. In the absence of coastal protection, economies that rely most on agriculture are hit hardest. Although energy is substituted for land, overall energy consumption falls with the shrinking economy, hurting energy exporters. With full coastal protection, GDP increases, particularly in regions with substantial dike building, but utility falls, least in regions that protect their coasts and export energy. Energy prices rise and energy consumption falls. The costs of full protection exceed the costs of losing land. The results also show direct costs - the usual method for estimating welfare changes due to sea level rise - are a bad approximation of the general equilibrium welfare effects; previous estimates of the economic impact of sea level rise are therefore biased

  17. Changing patterns of the temperature-mortality association by time and location in the US, and implications for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordio, Francesco; Zanobetti, Antonella; Colicino, Elena; Kloog, Itai; Schwartz, Joel

    2015-08-01

    The shape of the non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality varies among cities with different climatic conditions. There has been little examination of how these curves change over space and time. We evaluated the short-term effects of hot and cold temperatures on daily mortality over six 7-year periods in 211 US cities, comprising over 42 million deaths. Cluster analysis was used to group the cities according to similar temperatures and relative humidity. Temperature-mortality functions were calculated using B-splines to model the heat effect (lag 0) and the cold effect on mortality (moving average lags 1-5). The functions were then combined through meta-smoothing and subsequently analyzed by meta-regression. We identified eight clusters. At lag 0, Cluster 5 (West Coast) had a RR of 1.14 (95% CI: 1.11,1.17) for temperatures of 27 °C vs 15.6 °C, and Cluster 6 (Gulf Coast) has a RR of 1.04 (95% CI: 1.03,1.05), suggesting that people are acclimated to their respective climates. Controlling for cluster effect in the multivariate-meta regression we found that across the US, the excess mortality from a 24-h temperature of 27 °C decreased over time from 10.6% to 0.9%. We found that the overall risk due to the heat effect is significantly affected by summer temperature mean and air condition usage, which could be a potential predictor in building climate-change scenarios. PMID:25965185

  18. Climate change: a primer

    OpenAIRE

    Khanna, Dr. Perminder; Aneja, Reenu

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Climate has inherent variability manifesting in gradual changes in temperature, precipitation and sea-level rise. The paper entitled “Climate Change: A Primer” attempts to analyse the policy response and adaptation to the need to address climate change at the international and domestic level both. Intense variations in climate would increase the risk of abrupt and non-linear changes in the ecosystem, impacting their function, biodiversity and productivity. The policy initiations and ...

  19. The economic potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation with special attention given to implications for the land system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Popp, Alexander; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Klein, David; Bauer, Nico; Krause, Michael; Beringer, Tim; Gerten, Dieter; Edenhofer, Ottmar, E-mail: popp@pik-potsdam.de [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam (Germany)

    2011-07-15

    Biomass from cellulosic bioenergy crops is expected to play a substantial role in future energy systems, especially if climate policy aims at stabilizing greenhouse gas concentration at low levels. However, the potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation remains unclear due to large uncertainties about future agricultural yield improvements and land availability for biomass plantations. This letter, by applying a modelling framework with detailed economic representation of the land and energy sector, explores the cost-effective contribution of bioenergy to a low-carbon transition, paying special attention to implications for the land system. In this modelling framework, bioenergy competes directly with other energy technology options on the basis of costs, including implicit costs due to biophysical constraints on land and water availability. As a result, we find that bioenergy from specialized grassy and woody bioenergy crops, such as Miscanthus or poplar, can contribute approximately 100 EJ in 2055 and up to 300 EJ of primary energy in 2095. Protecting natural forests decreases biomass availability for energy production in the medium, but not in the long run. Reducing the land available for agricultural use can partially be compensated for by means of higher rates of technological change in agriculture. In addition, our trade-off analysis indicates that forest protection combined with large-scale cultivation of dedicated bioenergy is likely to affect bioenergy potentials, but also to increase global food prices and increase water scarcity. Therefore, integrated policies for energy, land use and water management are needed.

  20. The economic potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation with special attention given to implications for the land system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biomass from cellulosic bioenergy crops is expected to play a substantial role in future energy systems, especially if climate policy aims at stabilizing greenhouse gas concentration at low levels. However, the potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation remains unclear due to large uncertainties about future agricultural yield improvements and land availability for biomass plantations. This letter, by applying a modelling framework with detailed economic representation of the land and energy sector, explores the cost-effective contribution of bioenergy to a low-carbon transition, paying special attention to implications for the land system. In this modelling framework, bioenergy competes directly with other energy technology options on the basis of costs, including implicit costs due to biophysical constraints on land and water availability. As a result, we find that bioenergy from specialized grassy and woody bioenergy crops, such as Miscanthus or poplar, can contribute approximately 100 EJ in 2055 and up to 300 EJ of primary energy in 2095. Protecting natural forests decreases biomass availability for energy production in the medium, but not in the long run. Reducing the land available for agricultural use can partially be compensated for by means of higher rates of technological change in agriculture. In addition, our trade-off analysis indicates that forest protection combined with large-scale cultivation of dedicated bioenergy is likely to affect bioenergy potentials, but also to increase global food prices and increase water scarcity. Therefore, integrated policies for energy, land use and water management are needed.

  1. Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

    2014-12-01

    Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

  2. Climate and Change

    OpenAIRE

    Roger S. Pulwarty

    2011-01-01

    A presentation about the basics of climate change - the science, the impacts, and the consequences. The focus is on water and the Caribbean in particular but the information is general. It includes information about climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation.

  3. Implications of future climate change on agricultural production in tropical West Africa: evidence from the Republic of Benin

    OpenAIRE

    Awoye, Oyémonbadé Hervé Rodrigue

    2015-01-01

    Environmental interlinked problems such as human-induced land cover change, water scarcity, loss in soil fertility, and anthropogenic climate change are expected to affect the viability of agriculture and increase food insecurity in many developing countries. Climate change is certainly the most serious of these challenges for the twenty-first century. The poorest regions of the world – tropical West Africa included – are the most vulnerable due to their high dependence on climate and weather...

  4. Bionomic response of Aedes aegypti to two future climate change scenarios in far north Queensland, Australia: implications for dengue outbreaks

    OpenAIRE

    Williams, Craig R.; Mincham, Gina; Ritchie, Scott A.; Viennet, Elvina; Harley, David

    2014-01-01

    Background Dengue viruses are transmitted by anthropophilic mosquitoes and infect approximately 50 million humans annually. To investigate impacts of future climate change on dengue virus transmission, we investigated bionomics of the mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti. Methods Using a dynamic life table simulation model (the Container inhabiting mosquito simulation CIMSiM) and statistically downscaled daily values for future climate, we assessed climate change induced changes to mosquito bionomi...

  5. Climate for Change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    Cities rather than national governments take the lead in acting on climate change. Several cities have voluntarily created climate change plans to prevent and prepare for the effects of climate change. In the literature climate change has been examined as a multilevel governance area taking place...... around international networks. Despite the many initiatives taken by cities, existing research shows that the implementation of climate change actions is lacking. The reasons for this scarcity in practice are limited to general explanations in the literature, and studies focused on explaining...... the constraints on climate change planning at the local level are absent. To understand these constraints, this PhD thesis investigates the institutional dynamics that influence the process of the integration of climate change into planning practices at the local level in Denmark. The examination of integration...

  6. Our changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The author presents an overview of the changing climate. Attention is focused on the following: meteorology; weather; climate anomalies; changes in atmospheric composition and global warming; ozone; mathematical models; and climate and politics. In its conclusion, it asks researchers to stay out of a game in which, ultimately, neither science nor politics stands to gain anything

  7. Mathematics of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Halstadtrø, Ida

    2013-01-01

    Mathematics in climate research is rarely mentioned in the everyday conversations or in the media when talking about climate changes. This thesis therefore focus on the central role mathematics plays in climate research, through describing the different models used in predicting future weather and climate. In Chapter 1, a general introduction to climate, its components and feedbacks, and today's status is given. Chapter 2 concentrates on the dynamical models represented by ordinary differenti...

  8. Balance between climate change mitigation benefits and land use impacts of bioenergy : Conservation implications for European birds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meller, Laura; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pironon, Samuel; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Hof, Andries; Cabeza, Mar

    2015-01-01

    Both climate change and habitat modification exert serious pressure on biodiversity. Although climate change mitigation has been identified as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation, bioenergy remains a controversial mitigation action due to its potential negative ecological and socio-e

  9. Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought

    OpenAIRE

    Kelley, Colin P.; Mohtadi, Shahrzad; Cane, Mark A.; Seager, Richard; Kushnir, Yochanan

    2015-01-01

    There is evidence that the 2007−2010 drought contributed to the conflict in Syria. It was the worst drought in the instrumental record, causing widespread crop failure and a mass migration of farming families to urban centers. Century-long observed trends in precipitation, temperature, and sea-level pressure, supported by climate model results, strongly suggest that anthropogenic forcing has increased the probability of severe and persistent droughts in this region, and made the occurrence of...

  10. Socio-cultural reflections on heat in Australia with implications for health and climate change adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Bambrick, Hilary Jane; Banwell, Cathy; Dixon, Jane; Edwards, Ferne; Kjellström, Tord

    2012-01-01

    Background: Australia has a hot climate with maximum summer temperatures in its major cities frequently exceeding 35°C. Although ‘heat waves’ are an annual occurrence, the associated heat-related deaths among vulnerable groups, such as older people, suggest that Australians could be better prepared to deal with extreme heat.Objective: To understand ways in which a vulnerable sub-population adapt their personal behaviour to cope with heat within the context of Australians’ relationship with he...

  11. The Runaway Greenhouse: implications for future climate change, geoengineering and planetary atmospheres

    CERN Document Server

    Goldblatt, Colin

    2012-01-01

    The ultimate climate emergency is a "runaway greenhouse": a hot and water vapour rich atmosphere limits the emission of thermal radiation to space, causing runaway warming. Warming ceases only once the surface reaches ~1400K and emits radiation in the near-infrared, where water is not a good greenhouse gas. This would evaporate the entire ocean and exterminate all planetary life. Venus experienced a runaway greenhouse in the past, and we expect that Earth will in around 2 billion years as solar luminosity increases. But could we bring on such a catastrophe prematurely, by our current climate-altering activities? Here we review what is known about the runaway greenhouse to answer this question, describing the various limits on outgoing radiation and how climate will evolve between these. The good news is that almost all lines of evidence lead us to believe that is unlikely to be possible, even in principle, to trigger full a runaway greenhouse by addition of non-condensible greenhouse gases such as carbon diox...

  12. Implications of NARCCAP on the Likelihood of Regional Climate Change and an Integrated U.S. Water-Impact Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlosser, C. A.; Gao, X.; Blanc, E.; Strzepek, K. M.; Monier, E.

    2012-12-01

    In order for regional, integrated impact and adaptation assessments to be regarded as risk-based approaches, they must encompass to the fullest extent possible, the range of regional and global climate-change uncertainties as well as consistent economic pathways that underlie them. As such, the computational burden on any probabilistic construction (i.e. frequency distribution) that quantify these uncertainties is substantial when considering the large ensembles required from multiple, regional climate models. Thus, hybrid or statistical methods that encapsulate salient trend signals from regional climate models yet avoid the exhaustive amount of explicit simulations but remain consistent with the socio-economic pathway under which it is forced, would be highly desirable. We therefore present a hybrid frequency distribution (HFD) approach that extends the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework to provide probabilistic projections of regional climate changes. This procedure constructs meta-ensembles of the regional hydro-climate, combining projections from the MIT IGSM that represent global-scale uncertainties with regionally resolved climate-change kernel (CCK) patterns from archived climate-model projections. The approach has been extended to the climate-model outputs of the North American Regional Climate Change Project (NARCCAP). Specifically, we compare the NARCCAP CCKs to those of CMIP3, CMIP5, as well as the corresponding climate models that force the NARCCAP models. Many of the NARCCAP CCKs retain the large-scale patterns of their climate-model counterparts. However, regional and seasonal exceptions are also seen and carry with them important important climate-impact consequences. We then assess the consequences of the NARCCAP HFDs to a U.S. water-impact, climate-change assessment performed by the Water Resource System (WRS) of the IGSM.

  13. Climate and hydrological changes in the northeastern United States : recent trends and implications for forested and aquatic ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study reviewed previous and projected changes in climatic and hydrologic conditions in the northeastern United States. While climatic warming and increases in precipitation, snow, and hydrologic regimes have been observed over the last 100 years, the most pronounced changes have occurred since 1970. However, trends in climatic and hydrological variables have differed both spatially and temporally in different regions. Decadal-scale climatic variations have also altered long-term trends. Climate models predict continued increases in both temperature and precipitation over the next century. Increases in growing season length are expected to increase evapotranspiration and the frequency of droughts. An increase in the frequency of droughts is also expected to increase the risk of fires and other disturbances. Forest productivity and maple syrup production will be impacted, and the intensity of autumn foliage coloration will be diminished. It was concluded that climate and hydrological changes will have a profound impact on forest structure, composition and ecological functioning. 131 refs., 5 figs

  14. ECONOMY-WIDE ESTIMATES OF THE IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: SEA LEVEL RISE

    OpenAIRE

    2004-01-01

    The economy-wide implications of sea level rise in 2050 are estimated using a static computable general equilibrium model. Overall, general equilibrium effects increase the costs of sea level rise, but not necessarily in every sector or region. In the absence of coastal protection, economies that rely most on agriculture are hit hardest. Although energy is substituted for land, overall energy consumption falls with the shrinking economy, hurting energy exporters. With full coastal protection,...

  15. Asking about climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise

    2014-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that climate change will strongly affect people across the globe. Likely impacts of and adaptations to climate change are drawing the attention of researchers from many disciplines. In adaptation research focus is often on perceptions of climate change...... and on vulnerability and adaptation strategies in a particular region or community. But how do we research the ways in which people experience changing climatic conditions, the processes of decision-making, the actual adaptation strategies carried out and the consequences of these for actors living and dealing...... with climate change? On the basis of a literature review of all articles published in Global Environmental Change between 2000 and 2012 that deal with human dimensions of climate change using qualitative methods this paper provides some answers but also raises some concerns. The period and length of fieldwork...

  16. A complete Holocene record of trematode-bivalve infection and implications for the response of parasitism to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntley, John Warren; Fürsich, Franz T.; Alberti, Matthias; Hethke, Manja; Liu, Chunlian

    2014-12-01

    Increasing global temperature and sea-level rise have led to concern about expansions in the distribution and prevalence of complex-lifecycle parasites (CLPs). Indeed, numerous environmental variables can influence the infectivity and reproductive output of many pathogens. Digenean trematodes are CLPs with intermediate invertebrate and definitive vertebrate hosts. Global warming and sea level rise may affect these hosts to varying degrees, and the effect of increasing temperature on parasite prevalence has proven to be nonlinear and difficult to predict. Projecting the response of parasites to anthropogenic climate change is vital for human health, and a longer term perspective (104 y) offered by the subfossil record is necessary to complement the experimental and historical approaches of shorter temporal duration (10-1 to 103 y). We demonstrate, using a high-resolution 9,600-y record of trematode parasite traces in bivalve hosts from the Holocene Pearl River Delta, that prevalence was significantly higher during the earliest stages of sea level rise, significantly lower during the maximum transgression, and statistically indistinguishable in the other stages of sea-level rise and delta progradation. This stratigraphic paleobiological pattern represents the only long-term high-resolution record of pathogen response to global change, is consistent with fossil and recent data from other marine basins, and is instructive regarding the future of disease. We predict an increase in trematode prevalence concurrent with anthropogenic warming and marine transgression, with negative implications for estuarine macrobenthos, marine fisheries, and human health.

  17. Climate change and climate systems influence and control the atmospheric dispersion of desert dust: implications for human health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, Dale W.

    2010-01-01

    The global dispersion of desert dust through Earth’s atmosphere is greatly influenced by temperature. Temporal analyses of ice core data have demonstrated that enhanced dust dispersion occurs during glacial events. This is due to an increase in ice cover, which results in an increase in drier terrestrial cover. A shorter temporal analysis of dust dispersion data over the last 40 years has demonstrated an increase in dust transport. Climate systems or events such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Indian Ocean subtropical High, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and El Nino-Sothern Oscillation are known to influence global short-term dust dispersion occurrence and transport routes. Anthropogenic influences on dust transport include deforestation, harmful use of topsoil for agriculture as observed during the American Dust Bowl period, and the creation of dry seas (Aral Sea) and lakes (Lake Owens in California and Lake Chad in North Africa) through the diversion of source waters (for irrigation and drinking water supplies). Constituents of desert dust both from source regions (pathogenic microorganisms, organic and inorganic toxins) and those scavenged through atmospheric transport (i.e., industrial and agricultural emissions) are known to directly impact human and ecosystem health. This presentation will present a review of global scale dust storms and how these events can be both a detriment and benefit to various organisms in downwind environments.

  18. Global vs climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The various agents of global change that will affect the state of natural resources 50-100 years from now are discussed. These include economic and population growth, technological progress, and climatic change. The importance of climatic change lies in its effects on natural resources and on human activities that depend on those resources. Other factors affecting those resources include the demand on those resources from an increasing population and from a growing economy, and a more efficient use of those resources that comes from technological changes and from the consequences of economic growth itself. It is shown that there is a considerable ability to adapt to climatic change, since humans already have an intrinsic ability to adapt to the wide variations in climates that already exist and since technological developments can make it easier to cope with climatic variability. It appears that agents other than climatic change are more significant to the future state of natural resources than climatic change. Criteria for selecting options for addressing climatic change are outlined. Technological change and economic growth are seen to be key response options, since the vulnerability to climatic change depends on economic resources and technological progress. Specific options to stimulate sustainable economic growth and technological progress are listed. 16 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  19. Our Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newhouse, Kay Berglund

    2007-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses how global warming makes the leap from the headlines to the classroom with thought-provoking science experiments. To teach her fifth-grade students about climate change, the author starts with a discussion of the United States' local climate. They extend this idea to contrast the local climate with others,…

  20. Projecting Future Land Use Changes in West Africa Driven by Climate and Socioeconomic Factors: Uncertainties and Implications for Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.

    2015-12-01

    Land use changes constitute an important regional climate change forcing in West Africa, a region of strong land-atmosphere coupling. At the same time, climate change can be an important driver for land use, although its importance relative to the impact of socio-economic factors may vary significant from region to region. This study compares the contributions of climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of agricultural land use in West Africa and examines various sources of uncertainty using a land use projection model (LandPro) that accounts for the impact of socioeconomic drivers on the demand side and the impact of climate-induced crop yield changes on the supply side. Future crop yield changes were simulated by a process-based crop model driven with future climate projections from a regional climate model, and future changes of food demand is projected using a model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade. The impact of human decision-making on land use was explicitly considered through multiple "what-if" scenarios to examine the range of uncertainties in projecting future land use. Without agricultural intensification, the climate-induced decrease of crop yield together with increase of food demand are found to cause a significant increase in agricultural land use at the expense of forest and grassland by the mid-century, and the resulting land use land cover changes are found to feed back to the regional climate in a way that exacerbates the negative impact of climate on crop yield. Analysis of results from multiple decision-making scenarios suggests that human adaptation characterized by science-informed decision making to minimize land use could be very effective in many parts of the region.

  1. Storm surges and climate change implications for tidal marshes: Insight from the San Francisco Bay Estuary, California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Swanson, Kathleen; Takekawa, John Y.

    2013-01-01

    Tidal marshes are dynamic ecosystems that are influenced by oceanic and freshwater processes and daily changes in sea level. Projected sea-level rise and changes in storm frequency and intensity will affect tidal marshes by altering suspended sediment supply, plant and wildlife communities, and the inundation duration and depth of the marsh platform. The objective of this research was to evaluate how regional weather conditions resulting in low-pressure storms changed tidal conditions locally within three tidal marshes. We hypothesized that regional storms will increase sea level heights locally, resulting in increased inundation of the tidal marsh platform and plant communities. Using site-level measurements of elevation, plant communities, and water levels, we present results from two storm events in 2010 and 2011 from the San Francisco Bay Estuary (SFBE), California, USA. The January 2010 storm had the lowest recorded sea level pressure in the last 30 years for this region. During the storm episodes, the duration of tidal marsh inundation was 1.8 and 3.1 times greater than average for that time of year in 2010 and 2011, respectively. At peak storm surges, over 65% in 2010 and 93% in 2011 of the plant community was under water. We also discuss the implications of these types of storms and projected sea-level rise on the structure and function of tidal marshes and how that may affect the hydrogeomorphic processes and marsh biotic communities. This type of information is useful to managers for incorporating local climate change into developing their monitoring, management, and adaptation strategies.

  2. Climate change. Managing the risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to address the key question if a targeted approach to climate change response is feasible, different aspects of this question are analyzed. First, the scientific and political aspects of different options to determine specific long-term objectives for climate change are evaluated on the basis of the current scientific insights and the experiences over the last 5 years to develop climate objectives. Preliminary directions for such objectives are given. Next, important analytical tools are discussed that can be applied to analyze the different options and their implications in detail. In order to evaluate the implications of mitigation options, strategies that are consistent with the preliminary climate goals are analyzed in the third part. In chapter 2, the concept of long-term environmental goals, derived from critical levels of climate change, is discussed. Also a historical perspective is provided. A new, systematic regionalized and risk-based approach to elaborate the ultimate objective of the Framework Convention on Climate Change is proposed. In chapter 3 scenarios and integrated models are discussed. Central is the description of scenarios that were developed with RlVM's Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) and the US-EPA's Atmospheric Stabilization Framework (ASF). In chapter 4 potential long-term international emissions control strategies for the different sources and sinks of the most important greenhouse gases are analyzed. Carbon dioxide from energy, carbon dioxide from deforestation, and non-CO2 greenhouse gases are dealt with subsequently. The dissertation ends with general conclusions and recommendations for the further design of a targeted approach to climate change response, the development of analytical tools to support policy development in the area of climate change, and strategies that are consistent with preliminary long-term environmental goals. 66 figs., 8 tabs., 417 refs., 1 appendix

  3. Forestry Canada's perspectives on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The impacts of climatic change on Canada's forestry sector are discussed, in the context of major research priorities relating to forecasting climate, forecasting forest responses, monitoring changes, mitigating effects, and understanding the forest carbon balance. There are five major concerns that affect policy decisions: effects of climatic change on forests; adaptation to climate change; impacts of changing crops on forestry; changing forestry values in changing sociological settings; and international implications of the changing climate. A scientific program to respond to climate change issues is required, and should include the following concentrations of research effort. Planning requires projections of likely future climates, and efforts should concern relations between pre-historic climates and forest ecosystems and integrating data into predictive models. Forecasting of response of forests should include tree physiology, factors controlling reforestation, variations in forest trees, effects of pollutants, damage to forests, and forest decline

  4. Climate and Global Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present volume contains the lessons delivered at the course held in Arles, France, on the subject Climate and Global Change: natural variability of the geosphere and biosphere systems, biogeochemical cycles and their perturbation by human activities, monitoring and forecasting global changes (satellite observations, modelling,...). Short presentations of students' own research activities are also proposed (climatic fluctuation in the Mediterranean area, climate/vegetation relations, etc.)

  5. The changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A historical outline of climate changes is followed by a discussion of the problem of predictability. The main section goes into anthropogenic changes of the local (urban) and global climate, with particular regard to the greenhouse effect and its consequences in terms of human action. The author points out that today's climate problems should be discussed in a subject-centered and objective manner. (KW)

  6. Implications of climate change for water surplus and scarcity and how that affects agricultural sustainability in Hungary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Projected impacts of climate change have included, in addition to warmer temperatures, regionally variable effects on precipitation amounts, intensities, and seasonal distribution. Projections downscaled to Hungary and surrounding region were identified and their effects on streamflow, other water r...

  7. Review of the Policy and Legal Framework for Implementing Clean Development Mechanism Projects in Uganda and its Implications for Climate Change Mitigation - Comment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mabasi Thadeus

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews the policy and legal framework for the implementation of CDM projects in Uganda and its implications for climate change mitigation. It gives a background to climate change in Uganda and notes that climate change in Uganda can largely be attributed to unsustainable utilisation of the natural resources which has led to over exploitation and total loss of some of the natural resources. The paper reviews the international legal regime for climate change and its significance for climate change mitigation in Uganda and observes that Uganda has implemented the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol in accordance with the principles of common but differentiated responsibilities and the precautionary principle. This has for instance culminated in the carrying out of a National Inventory of Sources and Sinks of Greenhouse gases. The role of CDM in climate change mitigation is explored by examining the key CDM projects that have been implemented in Uganda. The key finding of the paper is that Uganda does not have an independent policy or law which deals with CDM and recommends that such policy and legal inadequacies should urgently be addressed.

  8. Implications of Climate Change for Bird Conservation in the Southwestern U.S. under Three Alternative Futures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan M Friggens

    Full Text Available Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3 modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy's warbler (Oreothlypis luciae, the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus. Our goal was to provide site- and species-specific information that can be used by managers to identify areas for habitat conservation and/or restoration along the Rio Grande in New Mexico. We created models of suitable habitat for each species based on collection and survey samples and climate, biophysical, and vegetation data. We projected habitat suitability under future climates by applying these models to conditions generated from three climate models for 2030, 2060 and 2090. By comparing current and future distributions, we identified how habitats are likely to change as a result of changing climate and the consequences of those changes for these bird species. We also examined whether land ownership of high value sites shifts under changing climate conditions. Habitat suitability models performed well. Biophysical characteristics were more important that climate conditions for predicting habitat suitability with distance to water being the single most important predictor. Climate, though less important, was still influential and led to declines of suitable habitat of more than 60% by 2090. For all species, suitable habitat tended to shrink over time within the study area leaving a few core areas of high importance. Overall, climate changes will increase habitat fragmentation and reduce breeding habitat patch size. The best strategy for conserving bird species within the Rio Grande will include measures to maintain and restore critical habitat refugia. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model

  9. Assessing the implications of human land-use change for the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmons, C. T.; Matthews, H. D.

    2016-03-01

    Recent research has shown evidence of a linear climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions, which implies that the source, timing, and amount of emissions does not significantly influence the climate response per unit emission. Furthermore, these analyses have generally assumed that the climate response to land-use CO2 emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuels under the assumption that, once in the atmosphere, the radiative forcing induced by CO2 is not sensitive to the emissions source. However, land-cover change also affects surface albedo and the strength of terrestrial carbon sinks, both of which have an additional climate effect. In this study, we use a coupled climate-carbon cycle model to assess the climate response to historical and future cumulative land-use CO2 emissions, in order to compare it to the response to fossil fuel CO2. We find that when we isolate the CO2-induced (biogeochemical) temperature changes associated with land-use change, then the climate response to cumulative land-use emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuel CO2. We show further that the globally-averaged albedo-induced biophysical cooling from land-use change is non-negligible and may be of comparable magnitude to the biogeochemical warming, with the result that the net climate response to land-use change is substantially different from a linear response to cumulative emissions. However, our new simulations suggest that the biophysical cooling from land-use change follows its own independent (negative) linear response to cumulative net land-use CO2 emissions, which may provide a useful scaling factor for certain applications when evaluating the full transient climate response to emissions.

  10. Assessing the implications of human land-use change for the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recent research has shown evidence of a linear climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions, which implies that the source, timing, and amount of emissions does not significantly influence the climate response per unit emission. Furthermore, these analyses have generally assumed that the climate response to land-use CO2 emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuels under the assumption that, once in the atmosphere, the radiative forcing induced by CO2 is not sensitive to the emissions source. However, land-cover change also affects surface albedo and the strength of terrestrial carbon sinks, both of which have an additional climate effect. In this study, we use a coupled climate-carbon cycle model to assess the climate response to historical and future cumulative land-use CO2 emissions, in order to compare it to the response to fossil fuel CO2. We find that when we isolate the CO2-induced (biogeochemical) temperature changes associated with land-use change, then the climate response to cumulative land-use emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuel CO2. We show further that the globally-averaged albedo-induced biophysical cooling from land-use change is non-negligible and may be of comparable magnitude to the biogeochemical warming, with the result that the net climate response to land-use change is substantially different from a linear response to cumulative emissions. However, our new simulations suggest that the biophysical cooling from land-use change follows its own independent (negative) linear response to cumulative net land-use CO2 emissions, which may provide a useful scaling factor for certain applications when evaluating the full transient climate response to emissions. (letter)

  11. Implications of climate change on the management of Rift Valley lakes in Kenya. The case of lake Baringo

    OpenAIRE

    Ngaira, Josephine K.

    2006-01-01

    Climate patterns of the World became very variable during the last half of the twentieth century. Causes of this variability/change have been identified as: Sun Spot activity, ozone depletion, decline in the solar beam, with the more pronounced especially in Africa being Increased atmospheric carbondioxide, and albedo change due to anthropogenic factors. The most affected weather elements by the above mentioned factors particularly in the tropics are Rainfall and Temperature, and the climatic...

  12. Climate Change Crunch Time

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xie Zhenhua

    2011-01-01

    CLIMATE change is a severe challenge facing humanity in the 21st century and thus the Chinese Government always attaches great importance to the problem.Actively dealing with climate change is China's important strategic policy in its social and economic development.China will make a positive contribution to the world in this regard.

  13. Potential Impacts of Climate Change in Kenya

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), climate change is attributed directly or indirectly to human activities that alter the composition of the global atmosphere. It is a phenomenon that is still inadequately understood by the general public. Planners, policy makers and even within institutions of learning, but one which is bound to affect our environment and development activities. There is therefore need for information dissemination, systematic research, policy formulation, and development of strategies for managing climate change. The book is divided into five parts, Part I presents basic information on climate change; Part II looks at climatic change and natural resources; Part III discusses implications of climate change; Part IV presents ethical issues related to climatic change; and Part V deals with responses to climate change

  14. Land cover dynamics and climate change implications on water resources in South Pacific Costa Rica

    OpenAIRE

    Algeet Abarquero, Nur

    2014-01-01

    Water is fundamental to human life and the availability of freshwater is often a constraint on human welfare and economic development. Consequently, the potential effects of global changes on hydrology and water resources are considered among the most severe and vital ones. Water scarcity is one of the main problems in the rural communities of Central America, as a result of an important degradation of catchment areas and the over-exploitation of aquifers. The present Thesis is focused on two...

  15. Climate change impacts and adaptations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn

    2015-01-01

    inseparability of the development and climate agendas, and the rate of assimilation of climate and development information in key institutions. They are drawn from the Development Under Climate Change (DUCC) project carried out by UNU-WIDER of which the countries of the Greater Zambeze Valley formed a part......In this article, we assert that developing countries are much better prepared to undertake negotiations at the Conference of the Parties in Paris (CoP21) as compared to CoP15 in Copenhagen. An important element of this is the accumulation of knowledge with respect to the implications of climate...... change and the ongoing internalization thereof by key institutions in developing countries. The articles in this special issue set forth a set of technical contributions to this improved understanding. We also summarize five major lessons related to uncertainty, extreme events, timing of impacts, the...

  16. Climate for change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate for Change: Non-State Actors and the Global Politics of the Greenhouse provides a challenging explanation of the forces that have shaped the international global warming debate. Unlike existing books on the politics of climate change, this book concentrates on how non-stage actors, such as scientific, environmental and industry groups, as opposed to governmental organisations, affect political outcomes in global fora on climate change. It also provides insights in to the role of the media in influencing the agenda. The book draws on a range of analytical approaches to assess and explain the influence of these non-governmental organisations in the course of global climate change politics. The book will be of interest to all researchers and policy-makers associated with climate change, and will be used on university courses in international relations, politics and environmental studies. (Author)

  17. Climate Change in the US Government Budget. Funding for Technology and Other Programmes, and Implications for EU-US Relations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    With increasing Congressional support for funding climate change technology programmes, as reflected in passage of the Hagel/Pryor amendment to the energy policy bill in June 2005, issues about the climate change budget are becoming more salient. In this Policy Brief, Congressional and Presidential actions on several recent budgets are examined for the four principal areas of the climate change budget: technology, science, international and tax credits. The emphasis is on energy technology in particular, because of its salience in current policy discussions and its relative size in financial terms. Highlights of the findings include the following: Congress imposed substantial (63.3%) increases over the administration's climate change technology proposals for 2004 and then small increases for FY2005. For 2006, the administration has proposed reductions compared with the Congressionally-enacted levels in the technology component - reductions in both nominal and inflation-adjusted terms (-4.1% and -5.6%, respectively). The administration has also proposed cuts for fiscal 2006 in the science and international programmes (-2.9 and -19.0% in real terms). These and other differences in Presidential and Congressional approaches to funding climate change programs provide further evidence that the Presidential- Congressional divide on climate policy is continuing to widen. There is an emerging bi-partisan Congressional coalition in favour of increased spending on a wide range of climate change programmes. This shift will affect EU-US relations on climate change issues for the remainder of the current administration until 2008, and beyond as well

  18. Climate change: The necessary, the possible and the desirable Earth League climate statement on the implications for climate policy from the 5th IPCC Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Rockstrom, J.; Brasseur, G; Hoskins, B.; Lucht, W.; Schellnhuber, J.; P. Kabat; Nakicenovic, N.; P. Gong; P. Schlosser; Costa, M; Humble, A.; Eyre, N.; Gleick, P.; James, R.; Lucena, A.

    2014-01-01

    The development of human civilisations has occurred at a time of stable climate. This climate stability is now threatened by human activity. The rising global climate risk occurs at a decisive moment for world development. World nations are currently discussing a global development agenda consequent to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which ends in 2015. It is increasingly possible to envisage a world where absolute poverty is largely eradicated within one generation and where ambitio...

  19. Climate change: the necessary, the possible and the desirable Earth League climate statement on the implications for climate policy from the 5th IPCC Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Rockström, Johan; Brasseur, Guy; Hoskins, Brian; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schellnhuber, John; Kabat, Pavel; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Gong, Peng; Schlosser, Peter; Máñez Costa, Maria; Humble, April; Eyre, Nick; Gleick, Peter; James, Rachel; Lucena, Andre

    2014-01-01

    The development of human civilisations has occurred at a time of stable climate. This climate stability is now threatened by human activity. The rising global climate risk occurs at a decisive moment for world development. World nations are currently discussing a global development agenda consequent to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which ends in 2015. It is increasingly possible to envisage a world where absolute poverty is largely eradicated within one generation and where ambitio...

  20. Trade and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamiotti, L.; Teh, R.; Kulacoglu, V. (World Trade Organization (WTO), Geneva (Switzerland)); Olhoff, A.; Simmons, B.; Abaza, H. (United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (Denmark))

    2009-06-15

    The Report aims to improve understanding about the linkages between trade and climate change. It shows that trade intersects with climate change in a multitude of ways. For example, governments may introduce a variety of policies, such as regulatory measures and economic incentives, to address climate change. This complex web of measures may have an impact on international trade and the multilateral trading system. The Report begins with a summary of the current state of scientific knowledge on climate change and on the options available for responding to the challenge of climate change. The scientific review is followed by a part on the economic aspects of the link between trade and climate change, and these two parts set the context for the subsequent parts of the Report, which looks at the policies introduced at both the international and national level to address climate change. The part on international policy responses to climate change describes multilateral efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the effects of climate change, and also discusses the role of the current trade and environment negotiations in promoting trade in technologies that aim to mitigate climate change. The final part of the Report gives an overview of a range of national policies and measures that have been used in a number of countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to increase energy efficiency. It presents key features in the design and implementation of these policies, in order to draw a clearer picture of their overall effect and potential impact on environmental protection, sustainable development and trade. It also gives, where appropriate, an overview of the WTO rules that may be relevant to such measures. (author)

  1. Forest policy implications of climate change: Economic impacts and potential mitigation strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Increasing mean global temperatures due to rising levels of carbon dioxide and other ''greenhouse'' gases in the atmosphere could affect the distribution of commercially important forests in North America significantly. The temperature increases might outpace the ability of forests to adapt, causing considerable stress and mortality to trees in the southern part of their range without a commensurate increase in growth across the expanding range. If realized, these potential biological impacts on forest distribution and health would affect management decisions substantially and could adversely impact forest-based economies in the United States. Specific effects on forest management include changes in the methods and costs of fire, insect, and disease protection; greater demands on forest lands for conversion to food production; and uncertain changes in site quality. One means of mitigating the effects of CO2 emissions is to establish tree plantations for carbon sequestration. Preliminary analyses suggest that a program aimed at marginal cropland in the South could store more than 563 million tons of carbon over 45 years, although 90 million tons would be lost due to risks associated with plantations

  2. Conservation practices in US agriculture and their implication for global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Increase in the use of conservation practices by agriculture in the United States will enhance soil organic carbon and potentially increase carbon sequestration. This, in turn, will decrease the net emission of carbon dioxide. A number of studies exist that calibrate the contribution of various individual, site-specific conservation practices on changes in soil organic carbon. There is a general absence, however, of a comprehensive effort to measure objectively the contribution of these practices including conservation tillage, the Conservation Reserve Program and conservation buffer strips to a change in soil organic carbon. This paper fills that void. After recounting the evolution of the use of the various conservation practices, it is estimated that organic carbon in the soil in 1998 in the United States attributable to these practices was approximately 12200000 metric tons. By 2008, there will be an increase of approximately 25%. Given that there is a significant potential for conservation practices to lead to an increase in carbon sequestration, there are a number of policy options that can be pursued. These include education and technical assistance, financial assistance, research and development, land retirement and regulation and taxes

  3. Local adaptation in brown trout early life-history traits: implications for climate change adaptability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, L.F.; Hansen, Michael Møller; Pertoldi, C.;

    2008-01-01

    adapt. Temperature-related adaptability in traits related to phenology and early life history are expected to be particularly important in salmonid fishes. We focused on the latter and investigated whether four populations of brown trout (Salmo trutta) are locally adapted in early life-history traits......) for two traits, indicating local adaptation. A temperature effect was observed for three traits. However, this effect varied among populations due to locally adapted reaction norms, corresponding to the temperature regimes experienced by the populations in their native environments. Additive genetic...... variance and heritable variation in phenotypic plasticity suggest that although increasing temperatures are likely to affect some populations negatively, they may have the potential to adapt to changing temperature regimes.  ...

  4. Struggle against climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document first proposes a presentation of the cross-cutting policy defined for the struggle against climate change. It notably presents its various programs. It describes the implemented strategy which aims at reducing on a short term greenhouse gas emissions with the available technologies, at making the climate challenge a driver for economic competitiveness, at developing the knowledge on climatic change and at preparing the necessary adaptation measures, and at stating on the international scene the French commitment and its dynamic role in front of the climate challenge

  5. Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After the introduction Chapter 2 presents details of the ecological-economic analysis based on the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zones (AEZ) approach for evaluation of biophysical limitations and agricultural production potentials, and IIASA's Basic Linked System (BLS) for analyzing the world's food economy and trade system. The BLS is a global general equilibrium model system for analyzing agricultural policies and food system prospects in an international setting. BLS views national agricultural systems as embedded in national economies, which interact with each other through trade at the international level. The combination of AEZ and BLS provides an integrated ecological-economic framework for the assessment of the impact of climate change. We consider climate scenarios based on experiments with four General Circulation Models (GCM), and we assess the four basic socioeconomic development pathways and emission scenarios as formulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Third Assessment Report. Chapter 3 presents the main AEZ results of the impact of climate change on agriculture. Results comprise environmental constraints to crop agriculture; climate variability and the variability of rain-fed cereal production; changes in potential agricultural land; changes in crop-production patterns; and the impact of climate change on cereal-production potential. Chapter 4 discusses the AEZ-BLS integrated ecological-economic analysis of climate change on the world food system. This includes quantification of scale and location of hunger, international agricultural trade, prices, production, land use, etc. It assesses trends in food production, trade, and consumption, and the impact on poverty and hunger of alternative development pathways and varying levels of climate change. Chapter 5 presents the main conclusions and policy implications of this study

  6. Communities under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

  7. Climate Change and Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Nibleus, Kerstin; Lundin, Rickard

    2010-01-01

    Planet Earth has experienced repeated changes of its climate throughout time. Periods warmer than today as well as much colder, during glacial episodes, have alternated. In our time, rapid population growth with increased demand for natural resources and energy, has made society increasingly vulnerable to environmental changes, both natural and those caused by man; human activity is clearly affecting the radiation balance of the Earth. In the session “Climate Change and Mitigation” the speake...

  8. PERCEPTIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

    OpenAIRE

    WAITHAKA, E.; OGENDI, KIMANI; MORARA, G.; MUTUA, MAKENZI P.

    2014-01-01

    There is evidence of climate change related events in arid and semi-arid lands. People living in Arid and Semi-arid Lands are particularly vulnerable to the change. Previous studies have revealed great wealth of adaptation mechanisms developed by communities residing in therein over the course of history for their survival. Despite this, there is little or no evidence whether these developed indigenous strategies by the vulnerable communities are based on perception of climate change. The obj...

  9. Global climate change and international security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  10. Climate change and skin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balato, N; Ayala, F; Megna, M; Balato, A; Patruno, C

    2013-02-01

    Global climate appears to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Climate change can be caused by several factors that include variations in solar radiation received by earth, oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions, as well as human-induced alterations of the natural world. Many human activities, such as the use of fossil fuel and the consequent accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, land consumption, deforestation, industrial processes, as well as some agriculture practices are contributing to global climate change. Indeed, many authors have reported on the current trend towards global warming (average surface temperature has augmented by 0.6 °C over the past 100 years), decreased precipitation, atmospheric humidity changes, and global rise in extreme climatic events. The magnitude and cause of these changes and their impact on human activity have become important matters of debate worldwide, representing climate change as one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. Although many articles have been written based on observations and various predictive models of how climate change could affect social, economic and health systems, only few studies exist about the effects of this change on skin physiology and diseases. However, the skin is the most exposed organ to environment; therefore, cutaneous diseases are inclined to have a high sensitivity to climate. For example, global warming, deforestation and changes in precipitation have been linked to variations in the geographical distribution of vectors of some infectious diseases (leishmaniasis, lyme disease, etc) by changing their spread, whereas warm and humid environment can also encourage the colonization of the skin by bacteria and fungi. The present review focuses on the wide and complex relationship between climate change and dermatology, showing the numerous factors that are contributing to modify the incidence and the clinical pattern of many

  11. The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two vectors of Chagas disease: implications for the force of infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medone, Paula; Ceccarelli, Soledad; Parham, Paul E; Figuera, Andreína; Rabinovich, Jorge E

    2015-04-01

    Chagas disease, caused by the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, is the most important vector-borne disease in Latin America. The vectors are insects belonging to the Triatominae (Hemiptera, Reduviidae), and are widely distributed in the Americas. Here, we assess the implications of climatic projections for 2050 on the geographical footprint of two of the main Chagas disease vectors: Rhodnius prolixus (tropical species) and Triatoma infestans (temperate species). We estimated the epidemiological implications of current to future transitions in the climatic niche in terms of changes in the force of infection (FOI) on the rural population of two countries: Venezuela (tropical) and Argentina (temperate). The climatic projections for 2050 showed heterogeneous impact on the climatic niches of both vector species, with a decreasing trend of suitability of areas that are currently at high-to-moderate transmission risk. Consequently, climatic projections affected differently the FOI for Chagas disease in Venezuela and Argentina. Despite the heterogeneous results, our main conclusions point out a decreasing trend in the number of new cases of Tr. cruzi human infections per year between current and future conditions using a climatic niche approach. PMID:25688019

  12. Biodiversity and Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biological diversity or biodiversity is crucial for ecological stability including regulation of climate change, recreational and medicinal use; and scientific advancement. Kenya like other developing countries, especially, those in Sub-Saharan Africa, will continue to depend greatly on her biodiversity for present and future development. This important resource must, therefore be conserved. This chapter presents an overview of Kenya's biodiversity; its importance and initiatives being undertaken for its conservation; and in detail, explores issues of climate change and biodiversity, concentrating on impacts of climate change

  13. Witnesses of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After having evoked the process of climate change, the effect of greenhouse gas emissions, the evolution of average temperatures in France since 1900, and indicated the various interactions and impacts of climate change regarding air quality, water resources, food supply, degradation and loss of biodiversity, deforestation, desertification, this publication, while quoting various testimonies (from a mountain refuge guardian, a wine maker, a guide in La Reunion, an IFREMER bio-statistician engineer, and a representative of health professionals), describes the various noticed impacts of climate change on the environment in mountain chains, on agriculture, on sea level rise, on overseas biodiversity, and on health

  14. Adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn;

    2011-01-01

    Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling...... framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed...... down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US2.3 to US2.3toUS7...

  15. Climate change governance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knieling, Joerg [HafenCity Univ. Hamburg (Germany). Urban Planning and Regional Development; Leal Filho, Walter (eds.) [HAW Hamburg (Germany). Research and Transfer Centre Applications of Life Science

    2013-07-01

    Climate change is a cause for concern both globally and locally. In order for it to be tackled holistically, its governance is an important topic needing scientific and practical consideration. Climate change governance is an emerging area, and one which is closely related to state and public administrative systems and the behaviour of private actors, including the business sector, as well as the civil society and non-governmental organisations. Questions of climate change governance deal both with mitigation and adaptation whilst at the same time trying to devise effective ways of managing the consequences of these measures across the different sectors. Many books have been produced on general matters related to climate change, such as climate modelling, temperature variations, sea level rise, but, to date, very few publications have addressed the political, economic and social elements of climate change and their links with governance. This book will address this gap. Furthermore, a particular feature of this book is that it not only presents different perspectives on climate change governance, but it also introduces theoretical approaches and brings these together with practical examples which show how main principles may be implemented in practice.

  16. Olivine and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuiling, R.D.

    2012-01-01

    The greenhouse effect, thanks mainly to the water vapor in our atmosphere, has created a livable climate on Earth. Climate change, however, may potentially have dire consequences. It is generally assumed that the rise in CO2 levels in the atmosphere is the main culprit, although several other greenh

  17. Understanding climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Topics covered in this book are: include volcanism; biogeochemistry; land hydrology; modeling climate; past and present; cryosphere; paleoclimates; land-surface processes; tropical oceans and the global atmosphere; clouds and atmospheric radiation; aeronomy and planetary atmospheres; and modeling future climate changes. The papers presented include uptake by the Atlantic Ocean of excess atmospheric carbon dioxide and radiocarbon

  18. Climate change: Update on international negotiations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silverman, L. [Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States). Office of Policy

    1997-12-31

    This paper outlines the following: United Nations` framework convention on climatic change; the United States` climate change action plan; current issues to be resolved (targets/timetables, policies, advancing commitments of all parties, and compliance); and implications for clean coal technologies.

  19. Investigation of climate change impact on water resources for an Alpine basin in northern Italy: implications for evapotranspiration modeling complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravazzani, Giovanni; Ghilardi, Matteo; Mendlik, Thomas; Gobiet, Andreas; Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the future effects of climate change on water availability requires an understanding of how precipitation and evapotranspiration rates will respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. Use of simplified hydrological models is required because of lack of meteorological forcings with the high space and time resolutions required to model hydrological processes in mountains river basins, and the necessity of reducing the computational costs. The main objective of this study was to quantify the differences between a simplified hydrological model, which uses only precipitation and temperature to compute the hydrological balance when simulating the impact of climate change, and an enhanced version of the model, which solves the energy balance to compute the actual evapotranspiration. For the meteorological forcing of future scenario, at-site bias-corrected time series based on two regional climate models were used. A quantile-based error-correction approach was used to downscale the regional climate model simulations to a point scale and to reduce its error characteristics. The study shows that a simple temperature-based approach for computing the evapotranspiration is sufficiently accurate for performing hydrological impact investigations of climate change for the Alpine river basin which was studied. PMID:25285917

  20. Dry-bean production under climate change conditions in the north of Argentina: Risk assessment and economic implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feijoo, M.; Mestre, F.; Castagnaro, A.

    1997-12-31

    This study evaluates the potential effect of climate change on Dry-bean production in Argentina, combining climate models, a crop productivity model and a yield response model estimation of climate variables on crop yields. The study was carried out in the North agricultural regions of Jujuy, Salta, Santiago del Estero and Tucuman which include the largest areas of Argentina where dry beans are grown as a high input crop. The paper combines the output from a crop model with different techniques of analysis. The scenarios used in this study were generated from the output of two General Circulation Models (GCMs): the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model (GISS) and the Canadian Climate Change Model (CCCM). The study also includes a preliminary evaluation of the potential changes in monetary returns taking into account the possible variability of yields and prices, using mean-Gini stochastic dominance (MGSD). The results suggest that large climate change may have a negative impact on the Argentine agriculture sector, due to the high relevance of this product in the export sector. The difference negative effect depends on the varieties of dry bean and also the General Circulation Model scenarios considered for double levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

  1. Population and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Landis MacKellar, F.; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2000-11-01

    Population and Climate Change provides the first systematic in-depth treatment of links between two major themes of the 21st century: population growth (and associated demographic trends such as aging) and climate change. It is written by a multidisciplinary team of authors from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis who integrate both natural science and social science perspectives in a way that is comprehensible to members of both communities. The book will be of primary interest to researchers in the fields of climate change, demography, and economics. It will also be useful to policy-makers and NGOs dealing with issues of population dynamics and climate change, and to teachers and students in courses such as environmental studies, demography, climatology, economics, earth systems science, and international relations.

  2. Creationism & Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, S.

    2009-12-01

    Although creationists focus on the biological sciences, recently creationists have also expanded their attacks to include the earth sciences, especially on the topic of climate change. The creationist effort to deny climate change, in addition to evolution and radiometric dating, is part of a broader denial of the methodology and validity of science itself. Creationist misinformation can pose a serious problem for science educators, who are further hindered by the poor treatment of the earth sciences and climate change in state science standards. Recent changes to Texas’ science standards, for example, require that students learn “different views on the existence of global warming.” Because of Texas’ large influence on the national textbook market, textbooks presenting non-scientific “different views” about climate change—or simply omitting the subject entirely because of the alleged “controversy”—could become part of K-12 classrooms across the country.

  3. Climate change and compensation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint; Flanagan, Tine Bech

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a case for compensation of actual harm from climate change in the poorest countries. First, it is shown that climate change threatens to reverse the fight to eradicate poverty. Secondly, it is shown how the problems raised in the literature for compensation to some extent...... are based on misconceptions and do not apply to compensation of present actual harm. Finally, two arguments are presented to the effect that, in so far as developed countries accept a major commitment to mitigate climate change, they should also accept a commitment to address or compensate actual harm from...... climate change. The first argument appeals to the principle that if it is an injustice to cause risk of incurring harm in the future, then it is also an injustice to cause a similar harm now. The second argument appeals to the principle that if there is moral reason to reduce the risk of specific harms...

  4. Criminality and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Rob

    2016-08-01

    The impacts of climate change imply a reconceptualization of environment-related criminality. Criminology can offer insight into the definitions and dynamics of this behaviour, and outline potential areas of redress.

  5. Dislocated interests and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Steven J.; Diffenbaugh, Noah

    2016-06-01

    The predicted effects of climate change on surface temperatures are now emergent and quantifiable. The recent letter by Hansen and Sato (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 034009) adds to a growing number of studies showing that warming over the past four decades has shifted the distribution of temperatures higher almost everywhere, with the largest relative effects on summer temperatures in developing regions such as Africa, South America, southeast Asia, and the Middle East (e.g., Diffenbaugh and Scherer 2011 Clim. Change 107 615–24 Anderson 2011 Clim. Change 108 581; Mahlstein et al 2012 Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L21711). Hansen and Sato emphasize that although these regions are warming disproportionately, their role in causing climate change—measured by cumulative historical CO2 emissions produced—is small compared to the US and Europe, where the relative change in temperatures has been less. This spatial and temporal mismatch of climate change impacts and the burning of fossil fuels is a critical dislocation of interests that, as the authors note, has ‘substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.’ Here, we place Hansen and Sato’s ‘national responsibilities’ into a broader conceptual framework of problematically dislocated interests, and briefly discuss the related challenges for global climate mitigation efforts.

  6. A Generalized Stability Analysis of the AMOC in Earth System Models: Implication for Decadal Variability and Abrupt Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fedorov, Alexey V. [Yale University; Fedorov, Alexey

    2015-01-14

    The central goal of this research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as related to climate variability and abrupt climate change within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean models to comprehensive Earth system models. Generalized Stability Analysis, a method that quantifies the transient and asymptotic growth of perturbations in the system, is one of the main approaches used throughout this project. The topics we have explored range from physical mechanisms that control AMOC variability to the factors that determine AMOC predictability in the Earth system models, to the stability and variability of the AMOC in past climates.

  7. Climate change - the impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This special dossier about the impacts of climate change is made of 6 contributions dealing with: the mitigation of climate effects and how to deal with them (Bertrand Reysset); how to dare and transmit (Laurent Billes-Garabedian); littoral risks, the Pas-de-Calais example (Julien Henique); extreme meteorological events and health impacts (Mathilde Pascal, Philippe Pirard, Yvon Motreff); Biodiversity and climate: the janus of global change (Robert Barbault, Jacques Weber); adapting agriculture to dryness and temperatures (Philippe Gate); Paris and the future heats of the year 2100 (Jean-Luc Salagnac, Julien Desplat, Raphaelle Kounkou-Arnaud)

  8. Climate change and Finland. Summary of the Finnish research programme on climate change (SILMU)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anthropogenic impacts on the Earth's atmosphere are expected to cause significant global climate changes during the next few decades. These changes will have many consequences both in nature and on human activities. In order to investigate the implications of such changes in Finland, a six-year multidisciplinary national research programme on climate and global change, the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU), was initiated in 1990. The key research areas were: (1) quantification of the greenhouse effect and the magnitude of anticipated climate changes, (2) assessment of the effects of changing climate on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and (3) development of mitigation and adaptation strategies

  9. Climate change: Recent findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the late eighties several reports have been published on climate change and sea level rise. In the meantime insights may have changed due to the availability of better and more observations and/or more advanced climate models. The aim of this report is to present the most recent findings with respect to climate change, in particular of sea level rise, storm surges and river peak flows. These climate factors are important for the safety of low-lying areas with respect to coastal erosion and flooding. In the first chapters a short review is presented of a few of the eighties reports. Furthermore, the predictions by state of the art climate models at that time are given. The reports from the eighties should be considered as 'old' information, whereas the IPCC supplement and work, for example, by Wigley should be considered as new information. To assess the latest findings two experts in this field were interviewed: dr J. Oerlemans and dr C.J.E. Schuurmans, a climate expert from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). Their views are presented together with results published in recent papers on the subject. On the basis of this assessment, the report presents current knowledge regarding predictions of climate change (including sea-level rise) over the next century, together with an assessment of the uncertainties associated with these predictions. 14 figs., 11 tabs., 24 refs

  10. Functional and phylogenetic relatedness in temporary wetland invertebrates: current macroecological patterns and implications for future climatic change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albert Ruhí

    embedded in these vulnerable and often overlooked ecosystems will be affected by long-term climate change.

  11. Importance of winter climate and soil frost for dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in boreal forest soils and streams : - implications for a changing climate

    OpenAIRE

    Haei, Mahsa

    2011-01-01

    Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is a defining feature of surface waters in a large part of the world and it influences a variety of physical, chemical and biological processes in aquatic ecosystems. Riparian soils exert a major control on stream water chemistry in many northern latitude regions and provide a local source of DOC to adjacent streams. As the winter climate in northern regions is predicted to be particularly affected by climate change, it is important to investigate the sensitivit...

  12. Climate change - global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

  13. Convergence of agricultural intensification and climate change in the midwestern United States: Implications for soil and water conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Society faces substantial challenges to expand food production while adapting to climatic changes and ensuring ecosystem services are maintained. A convergence of these issues is occurring in the Midwestern United States, i.e., the ‘cornbelt’ region that provides substantial grain supplies to world ...

  14. Climate Tolerances and Habitat Requirements Jointly Shape the Elevational Distribution of the American Pika (Ochotona princeps, with Implications for Climate Change Effects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leah H Yandow

    Full Text Available Some of the most compelling examples of ecological responses to climate change are elevational range shifts of individual species, which have been observed throughout the world. A growing body of evidence, however, suggests substantial mediation of simple range shifts due to climate change by other limiting factors. Understanding limiting factors for a species within different contexts, therefore, is critical for predicting responses to climate change. The American pika (Ochotona princeps is an ideal species for investigating distributions in relation to climate because of their unusual and well-understood natural history as well as observed shifts to higher elevation in parts of their range. We tested three hypotheses for the climatic or habitat characteristics that may limit pika presence and abundance: summer heat, winter snowpack, and forage availability. We performed these tests using an index of pika abundance gathered in a region where environmental influences on pika distribution have not been well-characterized. We estimated relative pika abundance via scat surveys and quantified climatic and habitat characteristics across two North-Central Rocky Mountain Ranges, the Wind River and Bighorn ranges in Wyoming, USA. Pika scat density was highest at mid-elevations and increased linearly with forage availability in both ranges. Scat density also increased with temperatures conducive to forage plant growth, and showed a unimodal relationship with the number of days below -5°C, which is modulated by insulating snowpack. Our results provide support for both the forage availability and winter snowpack hypotheses. Especially in montane systems, considering the context-dependent nature of climate effects across regions and elevations as well as interactions between climatic and other critical habitat characteristics, will be essential for predicting future species distributions.

  15. Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: A joint analysis for sea level rise and tourism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bigano, A. [Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Venice (Italy)]|[Ricerche per l' Economia e la Finanza, Milan (Italy); Bosello, F.; Roson, R. [Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Venice (Italy)]|[Ca' Foscari Univ. of Venice (Italy); Tol, R.S.J. [Hamburg Univ. and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Hamburg (Germay). Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change]|[Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (Netherlands). Inst. for Environmental Studies]|[Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    2007-07-01

    Climate change impacts of human life have well defined and different origins. Nevertheless in the determination of their final effects, especially those involving social-economic responses, interactions among impacts are likely to play an important role. This paper is one of the first attempts to disentangle and highlight the role of these interactions. It focuses on the economic assessment of two specific climate change impacts: sea-level rise and changes in tourism flows. By using a CGE model the two impacts categories are first analyzed separately and then jointly. Comparing the results it is shown that, even though qualitatively joint effects follow the outcomes of the disjoint exercises, quantitatively impact interaction do play a significant role. Moreover it has also been possible to disentangle the relative contribution of each single impact category to the final result. In the case under scrutiny demand shocks induced by changes in tourism flows outweigh the supply side shock induced by the loss of coastal land.

  16. The Effects of Supplementary Food on the Breeding Performance of Eurasian Reed Warblers Acrocephalus scirpaceus; Implications for Climate Change Impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vafidis, James O; Vaughan, Ian P; Jones, T Hefin; Facey, Richard J; Parry, Rob; Thomas, Robert J

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the mechanisms by which climate variation can drive population changes requires information linking climate, local conditions, trophic resources, behaviour and demography. Climate change alters the seasonal pattern of emergence and abundance of invertebrate populations, which may have important consequences for the breeding performance and population change of insectivorous birds. In this study, we examine the role of food availability in driving behavioural changes in an insectivorous migratory songbird; the Eurasian reed warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus. We use a feeding experiment to examine the effect of increased food supply on different components of breeding behaviour and first-brood productivity, over three breeding seasons (2012-2014). Reed warblers respond to food-supplementation by advancing their laying date by up to 5.6 days. Incubation periods are shorter in supplemented groups during the warmest mean spring temperatures. Nestling growth rates are increased in nests provisioned by supplemented parents. In addition, nest predation is reduced, possibly because supplemented adults spend more time at the nest and faster nestling growth reduces the period of vulnerability of eggs and nestlings to predators (and brood parasites). The net effect of these changes is to advance the fledging completion date and to increase the overall productivity of the first brood for supplemented birds. European populations of reed warblers are currently increasing; our results suggest that advancing spring phenology, leading to increased food availability early in the breeding season, could account for this change by facilitating higher productivity. Furthermore, the earlier brood completion potentially allows multiple breeding attempts. This study identifies the likely trophic and behavioural mechanisms by which climate-driven changes in invertebrate phenology and abundance may lead to changes in breeding phenology, nest survival and net reproductive

  17. Investigation of Climate Change Impact on Water Resources for an Alpine Basin in Northern Italy: Implications for Evapotranspiration Modeling Complexity

    OpenAIRE

    Ravazzani, Giovanni; Ghilardi, Matteo; Mendlik, Thomas; Gobiet, Andreas; Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the future effects of climate change on water availability requires an understanding of how precipitation and evapotranspiration rates will respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. Use of simplified hydrological models is required beacause of lack of meteorological forcings with the high space and time resolutions required to model hydrological processes in mountains river basins, and the necessity of reducing the computational costs. The main objective of this study was to quanti...

  18. Oxygen isotope in archaeological bioapatites from India: Implications to climate change and decline of Bronze Age Harappan civilization

    OpenAIRE

    Anindya Sarkar; Arati Deshpande Mukherjee; Bera, M. K.; Das, B.; Navin Juyal; Morthekai, P.; Deshpande, R. D.; Shinde, V. S.; L. S. Rao

    2016-01-01

    The antiquity and decline of the Bronze Age Harappan civilization in the Indus-Ghaggar-Hakra river valleys is an enigma in archaeology. Weakening of the monsoon after ~5 ka BP (and droughts throughout the Asia) is a strong contender for the Harappan collapse, although controversy exists about the synchroneity of climate change and collapse of civilization. One reason for this controversy is lack of a continuous record of cultural levels and palaeomonsoon change in close proximity. We report a...

  19. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Dulen, Deanna M; Ebersole, Joseph L; Jackson, Stephen T; Lundquist, Jessica D; Millar, Constance I; Maher, Sean P; Monahan, William B; Nydick, Koren R; Redmond, Kelly T; Sawyer, Sarah C; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  20. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  1. Landscape patterns of bioenergy in a changing climate: implications for crop allocation and land-use competition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, Rose A; Pearson, Scott M; Turner, Monica G

    2016-03-01

    Rural landscapes face changing climate, shifting development pressure, and loss of agricultural land. Perennial bioenergy crops grown on existing agricultural land may provide an opportunity to conserve rural landscapes while addressing increased demand for biofuels. However, increased bioenergy production and changing land use raise concerns for tradeoffs within the food-energy-environment trilemma. Heterogeneity of climate, soils, and land use complicate assessment of bioenergy potential in complex landscapes, creating challenges to evaluating future tradeoffs. The hypothesis addressed herein is that perennial bioenergy production can provide an opportunity to avoid agricultural land conversion to development. Using a process-based crop model, we assessed potential bioenergy crop growth through 2100 in a southern Appalachian Mountain region and asked: (1) how mean annual yield differed among three crops (switchgrass Panicum virgatum, giant miscanthus Miscanthus x giganteus, and hybrid poplar Populus x sp.) under current climate and climate change scenarios resulting from moderate and very high greenhouse gas emissions; (2) how maximum landscape yield, spatial allocation of crops, and bioenergy hotspots (areas with highest potential yield) varied among climate scenarios; and (3) how bioenergy hotspots overlapped with current crop production or lands with high development pressure. Under both climate change scenarios, mean annual yield of perennial grasses decreased (-4% to -39%), but yield of hybrid poplar increased (+8% to +20%) which suggests that a switch to woody crops would maximize bioenergy crop production. In total, maximum landscape yield increased by up to 90 000 Mg/yr (6%) in the 21st century due to increased poplar production. Bioenergy hotspots (> 18 Mg x ha(-1) x yr(-1)) consistently overlapped with high suburban/exurban development likelihood and existing row crop production. If bioenergy production is constrained to marginal (non-crop) lands

  2. Climate change and socio-economic scenarios, land use modelling implications on water resources in an inner alpine area, Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rey, Emmanuel; Schneider, Flurina; Liniger, Hanspeter; Weingartner, Rolf; Herweg, Karl

    2014-05-01

    The MontanAqua project aims to study the water resources management in the region Sierre-Montana (Valais, Switzerland). Land use is known to have an influence on the water resources (soil moisture dynamic, soil sealing, surface runoff and deep percolation). Thus land use modelling is of importance for the water resources management. An actual land use map was produced using infrared imagery (Niklaus 2012, Fig.1). Land use changes are known to be mainly drived by socio-economic factors as well as climatic factors (Dolman et al. 2003). Potential future Land uses was separatly predicted according to 1-. socio-economic and 2-. climatic/abiotic drivers : 1. 4 socio-economic scenarios were developped with stakeholders (Schneider et al. 2013) between 2010 and 2012. We modeled those socio-economic scenarios into a GIS application using Python programming (ModelBuilder in ArcGIS 10) to get a cartographic transcription of the wishes of the stakeholders for their region in 2050. 2. Uncorrelated climatic and abiotic drivers were used in a BIOMOD2 (Georges et al. 2013) framework. 4 models were used: Maximum Entropy (MAXENT), Multiple Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Classification Tree Analysis (CTA) and the Flexible Discriminant Analysis (FDA) to predict grassland, alpine pasture, vineyards and forest in our study region. Climatic scenarios were then introduced into the models to predict potential land use in 2050 driven only by climatic and abiotic factors The comparison of all the outputs demonstrates that the socio-economic drivers will have a more important impact in the region than the climatic drivers (e.g. -70% grassland surface for the worst socio-economic scenario vs. -40% of grassland surface for the worst climatic models). Further analysis also brings out the sensitivity of the grassland/alpine pasture system to the climate change and to socio-economic changes. Future work will be to cross the different land use maps obtained by the two model types and to use

  3. "What Controls the Structure and Stability of the Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation: Implications for Abrupt Climate Change?"

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fedorov, Alexey [Yale University

    2013-11-23

    The central goal of this research project is to understand the properties of the ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) – a topic critical for understanding climate variability and stability on a variety of timescales (from decadal to centennial and longer). Specifically, we have explored various factors that control the MOC stability and decadal variability in the Atlantic and the ocean thermal structure in general, including the possibility abrupt climate change. We have also continued efforts on improving the performance of coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs.

  4. Current Climate Variability & Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diem, J.; Criswell, B.; Elliott, W. C.

    2013-12-01

    Current Climate Variability & Change is the ninth among a suite of ten interconnected, sequential labs that address all 39 climate-literacy concepts in the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences. The labs are as follows: Solar Radiation & Seasons, Stratospheric Ozone, The Troposphere, The Carbon Cycle, Global Surface Temperature, Glacial-Interglacial Cycles, Temperature Changes over the Past Millennium, Climates & Ecosystems, Current Climate Variability & Change, and Future Climate Change. All are inquiry-based, on-line products designed in a way that enables students to construct their own knowledge of a topic. Questions representative of various levels of Webb's depth of knowledge are embedded in each lab. In addition to the embedded questions, each lab has three or four essential questions related to the driving questions for the lab suite. These essential questions are presented as statements at the beginning of the material to represent the lab objectives, and then are asked at the end as questions to function as a summative assessment. For example, the Current Climate Variability & Change is built around these essential questions: (1) What has happened to the global temperature at the Earth's surface, in the middle troposphere, and in the lower stratosphere over the past several decades?; (2) What is the most likely cause of the changes in global temperature over the past several decades and what evidence is there that this is the cause?; and (3) What have been some of the clearly defined effects of the change in global temperature on the atmosphere and other spheres of the Earth system? An introductory Prezi allows the instructor to assess students' prior knowledge in relation to these questions, while also providing 'hooks' to pique their interest related to the topic. The lab begins by presenting examples of and key differences between climate variability (e.g., Mt. Pinatubo eruption) and

  5. Climate Change and Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chinowsky, P.; Arndt, Channing

    2012-01-01

    Decision-makers who are responsible for determining when and where infrastructure should be developed and/or enhanced are facing a new challenge with the emerging topic of climate change. The paper introduces a stressor–response methodology where engineering-based models are used as a basis...... to estimate the impact of individual climate stressors on road infrastructure in Mozambique. Through these models, stressor–response functions are introduced that quantify the cost impact of a specific stressor based on the intensity of the stressor and the type of infrastructure it is affecting. Utilizing...... four climate projection scenarios, the paper details how climate change response decisions may cost the Mozambican government in terms of maintenance costs and long-term roadstock inventory reduction. Through this approach the paper details how a 14% reduction in inventory loss can be achieved through...

  6. Greenland climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Swingedouw, D.; Landais, A.;

    2012-01-01

    Climate archives available from deep-sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that during the last decade (2000s......), atmospheric and sea-surface temperatures are reaching levels last encountered millennia ago when northern high latitude summer insolation was higher due to a different orbital configuration. Concurrently, records from lake sediments in southern Greenland document major environmental and climatic conditions...... regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. The magnitude and rate of future changes in Greenland temperature, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, may be faster than any past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Projections indicate that within one century Greenland may...

  7. Alpine ecosystem vulnerability to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau: Global implications for carbon balance, regional consequences for local pastoralists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopping, K. A.; Klein, J. A.; Hu, J.; Kang, S.

    2010-12-01

    The Tibetan Plateau is predicted to undergo climate warming much greater than the global average, as well as shifts in its currently monsoon-dominated precipitation regime. These changes will likely affect the vegetation composition, carbon balance, and nutrient cycling of this alpine, social-ecological system. In 2009 we established a fully factorial experiment to test ecosystem responses to predicted climate changes on the Tibetan Plateau. Our experiment site (4870 m) is located in the foothills of the Nyanchenthanglha Mountains, where local pastoralists graze their livestock. The site is representative of central Tibet’s alpine meadow ecosystems, with the turf-forming sedge, Kobresia pygmaea, as both the dominant species and preferred forage of yaks. Our climate treatments are spring snow addition, which is added at 1-m depth to simulate severe snowstorms, and warming with open top chambers, which elevate air temperatures by an average of 1.2 degrees Celsius. The climate treatments are fully crossed with controlled grazing by yaks, which represents the primary livelihood practice of herders at our study site and throughout Tibet’s grasslands. To better understand the ecosystem shifts that may occur under climate change in this alpine system and to elucidate the drivers of these shifts, we collected data from a suite of measurements in each of our plots. Using a LiCOR 6400 infrared gas analyzer, we measured CO2 fluxes at 4 periods throughout the growing season to obtain values for net ecosystem productivity (NEP), ecosystem respiration, and gross primary productivity. We also measured available nitrogen (N) across three distinct moisture regimes (snowmelt, dry-down, and monsoon). Finally, we quantified changes in vegetation composition and recorded air and soil temperature and soil moisture throughout the growing season. After two years of applying treatments, our findings suggest that Tibet’s alpine grasslands are particularly vulnerable to climate change

  8. Downscaling a global climate model to simulate climate change over the US and the implication on regional and urban air quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Trail

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the contiguous United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF regional climate model (RCM to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12 km by 12 km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major US cities. The high-resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse-resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the US during fall (western US, Texas, northeastern, and southeastern US, one region during summer (Texas, and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast. Changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels are increased temperatures and stagnation along with decreased precipitation and ventilation. We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the US, which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air

  9. Climate change and vector-borne diseases: what are the implications for public health research and policy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Manga, Lucien; Bagayoko, Magaran; Sommerfeld, Johannes

    2015-04-01

    Vector-borne diseases continue to contribute significantly to the global burden of disease, and cause epidemics that disrupt health security and cause wider socioeconomic impacts around the world. All are sensitive in different ways to weather and climate conditions, so that the ongoing trends of increasing temperature and more variable weather threaten to undermine recent global progress against these diseases. Here, we review the current state of the global public health effort to address this challenge, and outline related initiatives by the World Health Organization (WHO) and its partners. Much of the debate to date has centred on attribution of past changes in disease rates to climate change, and the use of scenario-based models to project future changes in risk for specific diseases. While these can give useful indications, the unavoidable uncertainty in such analyses, and contingency on other socioeconomic and public health determinants in the past or future, limit their utility as decision-support tools. For operational health agencies, the most pressing need is the strengthening of current disease control efforts to bring down current disease rates and manage short-term climate risks, which will, in turn, increase resilience to long-term climate change. The WHO and partner agencies are working through a range of programmes to (i) ensure political support and financial investment in preventive and curative interventions to bring down current disease burdens; (ii) promote a comprehensive approach to climate risk management; (iii) support applied research, through definition of global and regional research agendas, and targeted research initiatives on priority diseases and population groups. PMID:25688013

  10. The climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to take stock on the climatic change situation and initiatives at the beginning of 2006, the INES (National Institute on the Solar Energy) proposes this special document. It presents the Montreal conference of December 2005, realized to reinforced the actions of the international community against the greenhouse gases. The technical decisions decided at this conference are detailed. The document discusses also the causes and consequences of the climatic warming, the intervention sectors and the actions possibilities. (A.L.B.)

  11. Climate change: where to now?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    the future management of climate change. This engagement requires attention to counter-productive trends such as the: dominance of the purchaser-provider model for knowledge generation; emphasis on accountability over innovation; emphasis on wealth generation rather than the broader spectrum of human aspirations; and emergence of political interference, ideologically-based constraints, short-termism, and the so called 'non-reality' world. Even with attention to these broad-ranging demands, one further and perhaps more demanding aspect requires attention. This is the question of human governance, structures and procedures. We have seen significant delays between the development of knowledge concerning climate change and policy response. These delays may have serious implications for future generations

  12. Population differentiation in tree-ring growth response of white fir (Abies concolor) to climate: Implications for predicting forest responses to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, D.B.

    1993-10-01

    Forest succession models and correlative models have predicted 200--650 kilometer shifts in the geographic range of temperate forests and forest species as one response to global climate change. Few studies have investigated whether population differences may effect the response of forest species to climate change. This study examines differences in tree-ring growth, and in the phenotypic plasticity of tree-ring growth in 16-year old white fir, Abies concolor, from ten populations grown in four common gardens in the Sierra Nevada of California. For each population, tree-ring growth was modelled as a function of precipitation and degree-day sums. Tree-ring growth under three scenarios of doubled C0{sub 2} climates was estimated.

  13. Climate Change Adaptation and Water Resources in the Caribbean Region

    OpenAIRE

    John Charlery

    2011-01-01

    Presentation on climate change adaptation in the Caribbean for a capacity building workshop. Topics discussed include the A1B Model, temperature and rainfall patterns, their implications for water resource management and climate change mitigation.

  14. Simulated climate change impact on summer dissolved organic carbon release from peat and surface vegetation: implications for drinking water treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritson, Jonathan P; Bell, Michael; Graham, Nigel J D; Templeton, Michael R; Brazier, Richard E; Verhoef, Anne; Freeman, Chris; Clark, Joanna M

    2014-12-15

    Uncertainty regarding changes in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) quantity and quality has created interest in managing peatlands for their ecosystem services such as drinking water provision. The evidence base for such interventions is, however, sometimes contradictory. We performed a laboratory climate manipulation using a factorial design on two dominant peatland vegetation types (Calluna vulgaris and Sphagnum Spp.) and a peat soil collected from a drinking water catchment in Exmoor National Park, UK. Temperature and rainfall were set to represent baseline and future conditions under the UKCP09 2080s high emissions scenario for July and August. DOC leachate then underwent standard water treatment of coagulation/flocculation before chlorination. C. vulgaris leached more DOC than Sphagnum Spp. (7.17 versus 3.00 mg g(-1)) with higher specific ultraviolet (SUVA) values and a greater sensitivity to climate, leaching more DOC under simulated future conditions. The peat soil leached less DOC (0.37 mg g(-1)) than the vegetation and was less sensitive to climate. Differences in coagulation removal efficiency between the DOC sources appears to be driven by relative solubilisation of protein-like DOC, observed through the fluorescence peak C/T. Post-coagulation only differences between vegetation types were detected for the regulated disinfection by-products (DBPs), suggesting climate change influence at this scale can be removed via coagulation. Our results suggest current biodiversity restoration programmes to encourage Sphagnum Spp. will result in lower DOC concentrations and SUVA values, particularly with warmer and drier summers. PMID:25262551

  15. Erosion and deposition on the Pajarito Plateau, New Mexico, and implications for geomorphic responses to late Quaternary climatic changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reneau, S.L.; McDonald, E.V.; Gardner, J.N.; Longmire, P.A. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Kolbe, T.R. [Woodward-Clyde Federal Services, Oakland, CA (United States); Carney, J.S. [Kent State Univ., OH (United States). Dept. of Geology; Watt, P.M. [New Mexico Univ., Albuquerque, NM (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

    1996-04-01

    The Pajarito Plateau of northern New Mexico contains a rich and diverse record of late Quaternary landscape changes in a variety of geomorphic settings that include gently-sloping mesa tops, steep canyon walls, and canyon bottoms. A broad range of investigations during the past decade, motivated by environmental and seismic hazard concerns, have resulted in examination of the characteristics, stratigraphy, and age of sediments and soils at numerous locations throughout the Plateau. Geochronologic control is provided by >140 radiocarbon dates supplemented by soil characterization and tephrochronology. In this paper we first summarize some of the results of recent and ongoing work on late Quaternary deposits on the Pajarito Plateau, illustrating both the complexity of the geomorphic record and some common elements that have been observed in multiple locations. We then use these observations, in combination with other work in the Southwest, to make some inferences about the local geomorphic response to regional climatic changes. Because the geomorphic and paleoclimatic records are fragmentary, and because the relations between large scale climate changes and local variations in precipitation, vegetation, and geomorphic processes are not fully understood, many uncertainties exist concerning the response of the local landscape to past climatic fluctuations. In addition, variations in local landscape sensitivity related to prior erosional history and spatial variations in vegetation, and the localized nature of many storms, probably contribute to the complexity of the geomorphic record. Nevertheless, the work discussed in this paper suggests a strong relation between regional climatic changes and local geomorphic history, and provides a framework for considering relations between modem processes, the record of past landscape changes, and future erosion and deposition on the Plateau and in surrounding areas.

  16. Evidence of recent climate change within the historic range of Rio Grande cutthroat trout: implications for management and future persistence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeigler, Matthew P.; Todd, Andrew S.; Caldwell, Colleen A.

    2012-01-01

    Evidence of anthropogenically influenced climate change has motivated natural resource managers to incorporate adaptive measures to minimize risks to sensitive and threatened species. Detecting trends in climate variables (i.e., air temperature and hydrology) can serve as a valuable management tool for protecting vulnerable species by increasing our understanding of localized conditions and trends. The Rio Grande cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii virginalis has suffered a severe decline in its historical distribution, with the majority of current populations persisting in isolated headwater streams. To evaluate recent climate change within the subspecies' historical range, we examined trends in average air temperatures, biologically important hydrological variables (timing of snowmelt and seasonal flows), and the April 1 snow water equivalent over the last 45 years (1963–2007). While rates of change in all three metrics were variable across sites, rangewide patterns were evident. Across the subspecies' historical range, average annual air temperatures increased (0.29°C per decade) and the timing of snowmelt shifted 10.6 d earlier in the year (2.3 d/decade). Flows increased during biologically important periods, including winter (January 1–March 31; 6.6% increase per decade), prespawning (April 1–May 14; 6.9% increase per decade), and spawning (May 15–June 15; 4.2% increase per decade) and decreased in summer (June 16–September 15; 1.9% decrease per decade). Evidence of decreasing April 1 snow water equivalent (5.3% per decade) was also observed. While the impacts of these changes at the population level are equivocal, it is likely that negative effects would influence the subspecies by altering its distribution, decreasing available habitat, and altering the timing of important life history components. Continued monitoring and proactive management will be required to increase the resiliency of remaining populations to ensure long-term persistence and

  17. The Implications of Future Food Demand on Global Land Use, Land-Use Change Emissions, and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Luckow, P.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Eom, J.; Kim, S.; Moss, R.; Patel, P.

    2011-12-01

    In 2005, cropland accounted for approximately 10% of global land area. The amount of cropland needed in the future depends on a number of factors including global population, dietary preferences, and agricultural crop yields. In this paper, we explore the effect of various assumptions about global food demand and agricultural productivity between now and 2100 on global land use, land-use change emissions, and climate using the GCAM model. GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated, global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. For this analysis, we look at the effect of alternative socioeconomic pathways, crop yield improvement assumptions, and future meat demand scenarios on the demand for agricultural land. The three socioeconomic pathways explore worlds where global population in 2100 ranges from 6 billion people to 14 billion people. The crop yield improvement assumptions range from a world where yields do not improve beyond today's levels to a world with significantly higher crop productivity. The meat demand scenarios range from a vegetarian world to a world where meat is a dominant source of calories in the global diet. For each of these scenarios, we find that sufficient land exists to feed the global economy. However, rates of deforestation, bioenergy potential, land-use change emissions, and climate change differ across the scenarios. Under less favorable scenarios, deforestation rates, land-use change emissions, and the rate of climate change can be adversely affected.

  18. Climate change in the sea: the implications of increasing the carbon dioxide inputs to the surface ocean

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pfister, Cathy [University of Chicago

    2012-12-23

    The oceans are estimated to be absorbing one-third of the fossil fuel carbon released into the atmosphere, a process that is expected to change ocean carbon chemistry. I will present data from the Washington coast showing ocean pH declines and changes to the shell chemistry of bivalves. I will discuss implications of carbon cycle changes for marine species, including insights from a coastal area where I have worked for more than 24 years. I will summarize what we know to date about this process of “ocean acidification”.

  19. Ireland and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As the rise of sea level, the higher frequency of tempests, and the threat of water shortages in some parts of the country are the major stakes for Ireland in the struggle against climate change, this report gives an overview of greenhouse gas emissions in this country (globally and per sector) and of their evolution. It presents the Irish policy to struggle against climate change since 2000, its public actors (ministries, agencies), its different action plans (National Climate Change Strategy, energy sector planning, promotion of renewable energies, transport sector planning), and sector-based and tax measures implemented in Ireland. It discusses the limitations of the current policy (insufficient results, limited domestic measures, socioeconomic obstacles, complex political steering), describes the new European context and the present Irish context (economic crisis). Some new orientations are discussed

  20. AMS and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kutschera, Walter, E-mail: walter.kutschera@univie.ac.a [Vienna Environmental Research Accelerator (VERA), Fakultaet fuer Physik - Isotopenforschung, Universitaet Wien, Waehringerstrasse 17, A-1090 Wien (Austria)

    2010-04-15

    This paper attempts to draw a connection between information that can be gained from measurements with accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) and the study of climate change on earth. The power of AMS to help in this endeavor is demonstrated by many contributions to these proceedings. Just like in archaeology, we are entering a phase of an 'integrated approach' to understand the various components of climate change. Even though some basic understanding emerged, we are still largely in a situation of a phenomenological description of climate change. Collecting more data is therefore of paramount interest. Based on a recent suggestion of 'geo-engineering' to take out CO{sub 2} from the atmosphere, this radical step will also be briefly discussed.

  1. AMS and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutschera, Walter

    2010-04-01

    This paper attempts to draw a connection between information that can be gained from measurements with accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) and the study of climate change on earth. The power of AMS to help in this endeavor is demonstrated by many contributions to these proceedings. Just like in archaeology, we are entering a phase of an 'integrated approach' to understand the various components of climate change. Even though some basic understanding emerged, we are still largely in a situation of a phenomenological description of climate change. Collecting more data is therefore of paramount interest. Based on a recent suggestion of 'geo-engineering' to take out CO 2 from the atmosphere, this radical step will also be briefly discussed.

  2. Climate change matters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macpherson, Cheryl Cox

    2014-04-01

    One manifestation of climate change is the increasingly severe extreme weather that causes injury, illness and death through heat stress, air pollution, infectious disease and other means. Leading health organisations around the world are responding to the related water and food shortages and volatility of energy and agriculture prices that threaten health and health economics. Environmental and climate ethics highlight the associated challenges to human rights and distributive justice but rarely address health or encompass bioethical methods or analyses. Public health ethics and its broader umbrella, bioethics, remain relatively silent on climate change. Meanwhile global population growth creates more people who aspire to Western lifestyles and unrestrained socioeconomic growth. Fulfilling these aspirations generates more emissions; worsens climate change; and undermines virtues and values that engender appreciation of, and protections for, natural resources. Greater understanding of how virtues and values are evolving in different contexts, and the associated consequences, might nudge the individual and collective priorities that inform public policy toward embracing stewardship and responsibility for environmental resources necessary to health. Instead of neglecting climate change and related policy, public health ethics and bioethics should explore these issues; bring transparency to the tradeoffs that permit emissions to continue at current rates; and offer deeper understanding about what is at stake and what it means to live a good life in today's world. PMID:23665996

  3. Assessing Potential Implications of Climate Change for Long-Term Water Resources Planning in the Colorado River Basin, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munevar, A.; Butler, S.; Anderson, R.; Rippole, J.

    2008-12-01

    While much of the focus on climate change impacts to water resources in the western United States has been related to snow-dominated watersheds, lower elevation basins such as the Colorado River Basin in Texas are dependent on rainfall as the predominant form of precipitation and source of supply. Water management in these basins has evolved to adapt to extreme climatic and hydrologic variability, but the impact of climate change is potentially more acute due to rapid runoff response and subsequent greater soil moisture depletion during the dry seasons. The Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) - San Antonio Water System (SAWS) Water Project is being studied to conserve water, develop conjunctive groundwater supplies, and capture excess and unused river flows to meet future water needs for two neighboring regions in Texas. Agricultural and other rural water needs would be met on a more reliable basis in the lower Colorado River Basin through water conservation, surface water development and limited groundwater production. Surface water would be transferred to the San Antonio area to meet municipal needs in quantities still being evaluated. Detailed studies are addressing environmental, agricultural, socioeconomic, and engineering aspects of the project. Key planning activities include evaluating instream flow criteria, water quality, bay freshwater inflow criteria, surface water availability and operating approaches, agricultural conservation measures, groundwater availability, and economics. Models used to estimate future water availability and environmental flow requirements have been developed largely based on historical observed hydrologic data. This is a common approach used by water planners as well as by many regulatory agencies for permit review. In view of the project's 80-yr planning horizon, contractual obligations, comments from the Science Review Panel, and increased public and regulatory awareness of climate change issues, the project team is

  4. Addressing Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Peter S. Heller

    2007-01-01

    Global climate change has moved high on the agenda of key policy makers in many industrial countries. As a “global public good,†a coordinated global response in terms of efforts at mitigation will be critically necessary. Equally, many countries will face serious economic harm in the absence of adaptation efforts. As one of the key global institutions with responsibility for global economic stability and growth, this paper argues that climate change should be on the economic surveillance ...

  5. Climatic change and nuclear

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    One of the main priorities of the WWF is to increase the implementing of solutions relative to the greenhouse effect fight. In this framework the foundation published a study on the nuclear facing the climatic change problem. The following chapters are detailed: the nuclear and the negotiations on the climatic change; the nuclear close; the unrealistic hypothesis of the nuclear forecast; the nuclear facing other energy supplying options; supplying efficiency for heating, electric power, gas and renewable energies; the consumption efficiency facing the nuclear; the economical aspects; the deregulation effect; the political aspects; the nuclear AND the greenhouse effect. (A.L.B.)

  6. Climate Change, Health, and Communication: A Primer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadwick, Amy E

    2016-06-01

    Climate change is one of the most serious and pervasive challenges facing us today. Our changing climate has implications not only for the ecosystems upon which we depend, but also for human health. Health communication scholars are well-positioned to aid in the mitigation of and response to climate change and its health effects. To help theorists, researchers, and practitioners engage in these efforts, this primer explains relevant issues and vocabulary associated with climate change and its impacts on health. First, this primer provides an overview of climate change, its causes and consequences, and its impacts on health. Then, the primer describes ways to decrease impacts and identifies roles for health communication scholars in efforts to address climate change and its health effects. PMID:26580230

  7. Implications of Climate Change for Bird Conservation in the Southwestern U.S. under Three Alternative Futures

    OpenAIRE

    Megan M Friggens; Finch, Deborah M.

    2015-01-01

    Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy's warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus). Our goal was to provide site- and species-specific informatio...

  8. Spatio-temporal modelling of heat stress and climate change implications for the Murray dairy region, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nidumolu, Uday; Crimp, Steven; Gobbett, David; Laing, Alison; Howden, Mark; Little, Stephen

    2014-08-01

    The Murray dairy region produces approximately 1.85 billion litres of milk each year, representing about 20 % of Australia's total annual milk production. An ongoing production challenge in this region is the management of the impacts of heat stress during spring and summer. An increase in the frequency and severity of extreme temperature events due to climate change may result in additional heat stress and production losses. This paper assesses the changing nature of heat stress now, and into the future, using historical data and climate change projections for the region using the temperature humidity index (THI). Projected temperature and relative humidity changes from two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO MK3.5 and CCR-MIROC-H, have been used to calculate THI values for 2025 and 2050, and summarized as mean occurrence of, and mean length of consecutive high heat stress periods. The future climate scenarios explored show that by 2025 an additional 12-15 days (compared to 1971 to 2000 baseline data) of moderate to severe heat stress are likely across much of the study region. By 2050, larger increases in severity and occurrence of heat stress are likely (i.e. an additional 31-42 moderate to severe heat stress days compared with baseline data). This increasing trend will have a negative impact on milk production among dairy cattle in the region. The results from this study provide useful insights on the trends in THI in the region. Dairy farmers and the dairy industry could use these results to devise and prioritise adaptation options to deal with projected increases in heat stress frequency and severity.

  9. Water-borne diseases and extreme weather events in Cambodia: review of impacts and implications of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Grace I; McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Yoonhee; Hashizume, Masahiro; Iddings, Steven; Chan, Vibol

    2015-01-01

    Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia. PMID:25546280

  10. Water-Borne Diseases and Extreme Weather Events in Cambodia: Review of Impacts and Implications of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grace I. Davies

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.

  11. Knowledge, attitudes and behaviours related to climate change in Alberta, Canada: implications for public health policy and practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plotnikoff, Ronald C; Wright, Mary-Frances; Karunamuni, Nandini

    2004-06-01

    Climate change has received recent extensive media attention (e.g., Kyoto Protocol) and is currently on the international public health agenda. The purpose of this study was to survey knowledge, attitudes and behaviours related to climate change in the province of Alberta, Canada. A random sample of 600 Alberta households, using proportional quotas based on the Canada Census of the Alberta population, was surveyed on knowledge, attitudes and behaviours related to climate change using a computer-assisted telephone interviewing protocol. Albertans are highly concerned, particularly about health problems related to the environment and air pollution; yet are only moderately informed about a variety of environmental issues. While the great majority of Albertans appear to be engaged in environmental behaviours at home, fewer consider energy efficiency when purchasing consumer goods. An even smaller percentage makes environmentally conscious transportation decisions. To encourage the population to make recommended environmental behaviours, mass media approaches may do well to target the specific beliefs that were deemed salient (e.g., promote the association between environment issues and health). The public health sector has a major role in working with inter-sectoral groups to address this significant public health issue. PMID:15203453

  12. Island-specific preferences of tourists for environmental features: implications of climate change for tourism dependent states

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uyarra, M.C.; Cote, I.M. [East Anglia Univ., Norwich (United Kingdom). Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Conservation; Gill, J.A. [East Anglia Univ., Norwich (United Kingdom). School of Environmental Sciences; Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich (United Kingdom); Tinch, R.T. [East Anglia Univ., Norwich (United Kingdom). School of Environmental Sciences; Macaulay Land Use Research Inst., Aberdeen (United Kingdom); Viner, D. [East Anglia Univ., Norwich (United Kingdom). Climate Research Unit; Watkinson, A.R. [East Anglia Univ., Norwich (United Kingdom). Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Conservation; East Anglia Univ., Norwich (United Kingdom). School of Environmental Sciences

    2005-03-15

    Climate change may affect important environmental components of holiday destinations, which might have repercussions for tourism-dependent economies. This study documents the importance of environmental attributes in determining the choice and holiday enjoyment of tourists visiting Bonaire and Barbados, two Caribbean islands with markedly different tourism markets and infrastructure. Three hundred and sixteen and 338 participants from Bonaire and Barbados, respectively, completed standardized questionnaires. Warm temperatures, clear waters and low health risks were the most important environmental features determining holiday destination choice. However, tourists in Bonaire thereafter prioritized marine wildlife attributes (i.e. coral and fish diversity and abundance) over other environmental features, whereas tourists in Barbados exhibited stronger preferences for terrestrial features, particularly beach characteristics. The willingness of tourists to revisit these islands was strongly linked to the state of the preferred environmental attributes. More than 80% of tourists in Bonaire and Barbados would be unwilling to return for the same holiday price in the event, respectively, of coral bleaching as a result of elevated sea surface temperatures and reduced beach area as a result of sea level rise. Climate change might have a significant impact on Caribbean tourism economy through alteration of environmental features important to destination selection. Island-specific management strategies, such as focusing resources on the protection of key marine or terrestrial features, may provide a means of reducing the environmental and economic impacts of climate change. (author)

  13. Climatic change. What solutions?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    From 1990 to the present day, worldwide greenhouse gas emissions have increased by about 25%. Fighting climatic change has become an urgency: we only have 15 years in front of us to inflect the trajectory of worldwide emissions and to avoid a temperature rise of more than 2 deg. C during this century. Therefore, how is it possible to explain the shift between the need of an urgent action and the apparent inertia of some governing parties? How is it possible to implement a worldwide governance capable to answer the urgency of the fight against climatic change? These are the two questions that this pedagogical and concrete book tries to answer by analysing the different dimensions of climatic change and by making a first status of the building up of the international action, and in particular of the Kyoto protocol. For the post-2012 era, research and negotiations are in progress with the objective of reaching an agreement for the Copenhagen conference of December 2009. Several architectures are possible. This book shades light on the advantages and limitations of each of them with the possible compromises. It supplies a pluri-disciplinary approach of the international negotiations, often considered as complex by the general public. Content: 1 - understanding the climatic change stakes: climatic stakes, the main actors behind the figures, the technical-economical stakes; 2 - understanding the present day architecture of the fight against climatic change: strengths and weaknesses of the Kyoto protocol; encouraging research and technology spreading; the other action means in developing countries; 3 - what structure for a future international agreement?: the Bali negotiation process; the ideal vision: an improved Kyoto protocol; the pragmatic vision: individualized commitments; the negotiation space; preventing a planned fiasco. (J.S.)

  14. Climate change and amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corn, P. S.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species

  15. Energy and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-15

    Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

  16. Topologies of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is quickly becoming a ubiquitous socionatural reality, mediating extremes of sociospatial scale from the bodily to the planetary. Although environmentalism invites us to ‘think globally and act locally', the meaning of these scalar designations remains ambiguous. This paper explores...... the topological presuppositions of social theory in the context of global climate change, asking how carbon emissions ‘translate' into various sociomaterial forms. Staging a meeting between Tim Ingold's phenomenology of globes and spheres and the social topologies of actor-network theory (ANT), the...... paper advances a ‘relational-scalar' analytics of spatial practices, technoscience, and power. As technoscience gradually constructs a networked global climate, this ‘grey box' comes to circulate within fluid social spaces, taking on new shades as it hybridizes knowledges, symbols, and practices. Global...

  17. Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hudecz, Adriána

    The European Union ROADEX Project 1998 – 2012 was a trans-national roads co-operation aimed at developing ways for interactive and innovative management of low traffic volume roads throughout the cold climate regions of the Northern Periphery Area of Europe. Its goals were to facilitate co......-operation and research into the common problems of the Northern Periphery. This report is an output of the ROADEX “Implementing Accessibility” project (2009-2012). It gives a summary of the results of research into adaptation measures to combat climate change effects on low volume roads in the Northern...... Periphery. The research was carried out between January 2000 and March 2012. One of the biggest challenges that mankind has to face is the prospect of climate change resulting from emissions of greenhouse gases. These gases trap energy in the atmosphere and cause global surface temperatures to rise. This...

  18. Ecological Response to Extreme Flow Events in Streams and Rivers: Implications of Climate Change for Aquatic Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, C. P.; Vander Laan, J. J.; Dhungel, S.; Tarboton, D. G.

    2014-12-01

    We used the USEPA's 2008-2009 National Rivers and Streams Assessment (NRSA) data to assess the potential sensitivity of stream biodiversity to both spatial variation in measures of extreme flow and likely changes in extreme flows associated with projected climate change. The NRSA data consisted of macroinvertebrate samples collected at 1313 reference-quality sites. We characterized the hydrologic regimes at each of these sites by developing Random Forest empirical models from long-term (≥ 20 years) daily flow records obtained from 601 gaged USGS stations. These models described spatial variation in 16 flow variables as a function of climate and watershed attributes. Three of the models characterized aspects of extreme flow: the mean number of zero-flow events per year (ZeroDays), the mean number of high-flow events per year (HighDays = number of events per year that exceed the 95th percentile of mean annual flow), and the coefficient of variation of daily flows (CV). We used these models to predict the flow attributes expected at each of the 1313 sites with ecological data. We then built additional Random Forest models that related among-site differences in stream macroinvertebrate taxonomic composition, assemblage richness, and the likelihood of observing individual taxa to the 16 measures of flow regime and other environmental predictors. At the national level, ZeroDays was an important predictor of macroinvertebrate biodiversity: richness declined as ZeroDays increased. A similar pattern was observed when analyses were restricted to lowland and plains streams. For eastern highland streams, HighDays was a better predictor of stream biodiversity than aspects of low flow: richness declined as HighDays increased. For western streams, CV was a better predictor of biodiversity than either ZeroDays or HighDays: biodiversity decreased as CV increased. Empirical models that linked flow attributes to climate change projections imply that flow regime response to climate

  19. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-08-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported.

  20. Climate Change and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

    OpenAIRE

    Kelman, I.

    2015-01-01

    This article reviews climate change within the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (SFDRR), analyzing how climate change is mentioned in the framework’s text and the potential implications for dealing with climate change within the context of disaster risk reduction. Three main categories are examined. First, climate change affecting disaster risk and disasters, demonstrating too much emphasis on the single hazard driver and diminisher of climate change. Second, cross-secto...

  1. Impacts of Climate Change on Vector Borne Diseases in the Mediterranean Basin — Implications for Preparedness and Adaptation Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maya Negev

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean region is vulnerable to climatic changes. A warming trend exists in the basin with changes in rainfall patterns. It is expected that vector-borne diseases (VBD in the region will be influenced by climate change since weather conditions influence their emergence. For some diseases (i.e., West Nile virus the linkage between emergence andclimate change was recently proved; for others (such as dengue the risk for local transmission is real. Consequently, adaptation and preparation for changing patterns of VBD distribution is crucial in the Mediterranean basin. We analyzed six representative Mediterranean countries and found that they have started to prepare for this threat, but the preparation levels among them differ, and policy mechanisms are limited and basic. Furthermore, cross-border cooperation is not stable and depends on international frameworks. The Mediterranean countries should improve their adaptation plans, and develop more cross-sectoral, multidisciplinary and participatory approaches. In addition, based on experience from existing local networks in advancing national legislation and trans-border cooperation, we outline recommendations for a regional cooperation framework. We suggest that a stable and neutral framework is required, and that it should address the characteristics and needs of African, Asian and European countries around the Mediterranean in order to ensure participation. Such a regional framework is essential to reduce the risk of VBD transmission, since the vectors of infectious diseases know no political borders.

  2. Range-wide latitudinal and elevational temperature gradients for the world's terrestrial birds: implications under global climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank A La Sorte

    Full Text Available Species' geographical distributions are tracking latitudinal and elevational surface temperature gradients under global climate change. To evaluate the opportunities to track these gradients across space, we provide a first baseline assessment of the steepness of these gradients for the world's terrestrial birds. Within the breeding ranges of 9,014 bird species, we characterized the spatial gradients in temperature along latitude and elevation for all and a subset of bird species, respectively. We summarized these temperature gradients globally for threatened and non-threatened species and determined how their steepness varied based on species' geography (range size, shape, and orientation and projected changes in temperature under climate change. Elevational temperature gradients were steepest for species in Africa, western North and South America, and central Asia and shallowest in Australasia, insular IndoMalaya, and the Neotropical lowlands. Latitudinal temperature gradients were steepest for extratropical species, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Threatened species had shallower elevational gradients whereas latitudinal gradients differed little between threatened and non-threatened species. The strength of elevational gradients was positively correlated with projected changes in temperature. For latitudinal gradients, this relationship only held for extratropical species. The strength of latitudinal gradients was better predicted by species' geography, but primarily for extratropical species. Our findings suggest threatened species are associated with shallower elevational temperature gradients, whereas steep latitudinal gradients are most prevalent outside the tropics where fewer bird species occur year-round. Future modeling and mitigation efforts would benefit from the development of finer grain distributional data to ascertain how these gradients are structured within species' ranges, how and why these gradients vary among

  3. Learning Progressions & Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Joyce M.; de los Santos, Elizabeth X.; Anderson, Charles W.

    2015-01-01

    Our society is currently having serious debates about sources of energy and global climate change. But do students (and the public) have the requisite knowledge to engage these issues as informed citizenry? The learning-progression research summarized here indicates that only 10% of high school students typically have a level of understanding…

  4. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Carmin; K. Tierney; E. Chu; L.M. Hunter; J.T. Roberts; L. Shi

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the financ

  5. Corporate Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    The American Chamber of Commerce, the People's Republic of China (AmCham-China) and the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai recently released "American Corporate Experience in a Changing China: Insights From AmCham Business Climate Surveys, 1999-2005." Excerpts of the report follow:

  6. DTU Climate Change Technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    During 2008 and 2009, DTU held a workshop series focusing on assessment of and adaption to climate changes as well as on mitigation of green house gasses. In the workshops, a total of 1500 scientists, government officials and business leaders have outlined scenarios for technology development...

  7. Climate change is predicted to negatively influence Moroccan endemic reptile richness. Implications for conservation in protected areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Freiría, Fernando; Argaz, Hamida; Fahd, Soumía; Brito, José C.

    2013-09-01

    The identification of species-rich areas and their prognosticated turnover under climate change are crucial for the conservation of endemic taxa. This study aims to identify areas of reptile endemicity richness in a global biodiversity hot spot (Morocco) under current and future climatic conditions and to investigate the role of protected areas in biodiversity conservation under climate change. Species distribution models (SDM) were performed over the distribution of 21 endemic reptiles, combined to estimate current species richness at 1 × 1 km resolution and projected to years 2050 and 2080 according to distinct story lines and ensemble global circulation models, assuming unlimited and null dispersion ability. Generalized additive models were performed between species richness and geographic characteristics of 43 protected areas. SDM found precipitation as the most important factor related to current species distributions. Important reductions in future suitable areas were predicted for 50 % of species, and four species were identified as highly vulnerable to extinction. Drastic reductions in species-rich areas were predicted for the future, with considerable variability between years and dispersal scenarios. High turnover rates of species composition were predicted for eastern Morocco, whereas low values were forecasted for the Northern Atlantic coast and mountains. Species richness for current and future conditions was significantly related to the altitude and latitude of protected areas. Protected areas located in mountains and/or in the Northern Atlantic coast were identified as refugia, where population monitoring and conservation management is needed.

  8. Reducing the impact of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    2007-01-01

    The most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) found that there is overwhelming evidence that humans are affecting climate and it highlighted the implications for human health. The World Health Organization (WHO) is helping countries respond to this challenge, primarily by encouraging them to build and reinforce public health systems as the first line of defence against climate-related health risks.

  9. Oxygen isotope in archaeological bioapatites from India: Implications to climate change and decline of Bronze Age Harappan civilization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkar, Anindya; Mukherjee, Arati Deshpande; Bera, M K; Das, B; Juyal, Navin; Morthekai, P; Deshpande, R D; Shinde, V S; Rao, L S

    2016-01-01

    The antiquity and decline of the Bronze Age Harappan civilization in the Indus-Ghaggar-Hakra river valleys is an enigma in archaeology. Weakening of the monsoon after ~5 ka BP (and droughts throughout the Asia) is a strong contender for the Harappan collapse, although controversy exists about the synchroneity of climate change and collapse of civilization. One reason for this controversy is lack of a continuous record of cultural levels and palaeomonsoon change in close proximity. We report a high resolution oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) record of animal teeth-bone phosphates from an archaeological trench itself at Bhirrana, NW India, preserving all cultural levels of this civilization. Bhirrana was part of a high concentration of settlements along the dried up mythical Vedic river valley 'Saraswati', an extension of Ghaggar river in the Thar desert. Isotope and archaeological data suggest that the pre-Harappans started inhabiting this area along the mighty Ghaggar-Hakra rivers fed by intensified monsoon from 9 to 7 ka BP. The monsoon monotonically declined after 7 ka yet the settlements continued to survive from early to mature Harappan time. Our study suggests that other cause like change in subsistence strategy by shifting crop patterns rather than climate change was responsible for Harappan collapse. PMID:27222033

  10. Climate change and coasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The investigation of climatic processes and behaviour examines the effects of climatic changes on human beings and the surrounding environment. The authors discuss, in a wide-subject perspective, the regional impacts of the greenhouse effect, increase of the sea level, and changed conditions of both precipitation and wind using the North and Baltic Sea as examples. In this effort, questions dealing with changes of water level, motion and (disturbance) of the sea and morphodynamic in the coastal apron, in reference to requirements on a future protection of the shore, are handled. In addition, not only the aspects of ecosystem-orientated adaption in the strip of land between the continent northern islands 'Wattenmeer' and ground landscape (Bodenlandschaft) are taken into consideration, but also the impact of these on human beings and their interest to use the coastal regions. (orig.). 102 figs., 9 tabs

  11. Africa and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toulmin, Camilla; Huq, Saleemul

    2006-10-15

    Remember the scenes from New Orleans of flooded streets and scavenging people? One year on and little progress is evident in achieving the step-change needed in controlling greenhouse gases. Hurricane Katrina showed only too vividly the massive power of natural forces combined with inadequate preparation. The flood waters washed away and exposed fully the lack of planning and low priority given to securing life and livelihoods, especially of the more vulnerable groups in the community. If this is what a whirlwind can bring in the southern USA, what might we reap in further storms and droughts tomorrow in poorer parts of the world? New research findings point to the likelihood of larger, faster and more substantial changes to our climate system. The African continent is particularly vulnerable to adverse changes in climate, the evidence for which is becoming more and more stark.

  12. Differential response to soil salinity in endangered key tree cactus: implications for survival in a changing climate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joie Goodman

    Full Text Available Understanding reasons for biodiversity loss is essential for developing conservation and management strategies and is becoming increasingly urgent with climate change. Growing at elevations <1.4 m in the Florida Keys, USA, the endangered Key tree cactus (Pilosocereus robinii experienced 84 percent loss of total stems from 1994 to 2007. The most severe losses of 99 and 88 percent stems occurred in the largest populations in the Lower Keys, where nine storms with high wind velocities and storm surges, occurred during this period. In contrast, three populations had substantial stem proliferation. To evaluate possible mortality factors related to changes in climate or forest structure, we examined habitat variables: soil salinity, elevation, canopy cover, and habitat structure near 16 dying or dead and 18 living plants growing in the Lower Keys. Soil salinity and elevation were the preliminary factors that discriminated live and dead plants. Soil salinity was 1.5 times greater, but elevation was 12 cm higher near dead plants than near live plants. However, distribution-wide stem loss was not significantly related to salinity or elevation. Controlled salinity trials indicated that salt tolerance to levels above 40 mM NaCl was related to maternal origin. Salt sensitive plants from the Lower Keys had less stem growth, lower root:shoot ratios, lower potassium: sodium ratios and lower recovery rate, but higher δ (13C than a salt tolerant lineage of unknown origin. Unraveling the genetic structure of salt tolerant and salt sensitive lineages in the Florida Keys will require further genetic tests. Worldwide rare species restricted to fragmented, low-elevation island habitats, with little or no connection to higher ground will face challenges from climate change-related factors. These great conservation challenges will require traditional conservation actions and possibly managed relocation that must be informed by studies such as these.

  13. Climate change and human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warren, John A; Berner, James E; Curtis, Tine

    2005-01-01

    In northern regions, climate change can include changes in precipitation magnitude and frequency, reductions in sea ice extent and thickness, and climate warming and cooling. These changes can increase the frequency and severity of storms, flooding, or erosion; other changes may include drought o...... communities can begin to develop a response to climate change. With this information, planners, engineers, health care professionals and governments can begin to develop approaches to address the challenges related to climate change....

  14. Soil texture drives responses of soil respiration to precipitation pulses in the sonoran desert: Implications for climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cable, J.M.; Ogle, K.; Williams, D.G.; Weltzin, J.F.; Huxman, T. E.

    2008-01-01

    Climate change predictions for the desert southwestern U.S. are for shifts in precipitation patterns. The impacts of climate change may be significant, because desert soil processes are strongly controlled by precipitation inputs ('pulses') via their effect on soil water availability. This study examined the response of soil respiration-an important biological process that affects soil carbon (C) storage-to variation in pulses representative of climate change scenarios for the Sonoran Desert. Because deserts are mosaics of different plant cover types and soil textures-which create patchiness in soil respiration-we examined how these landscape characteristics interact to affect the response of soil respiration to pulses. Pulses were applied to experimental plots of bare and vegetated soil on contrasting soil textures typical of Sonoran Desert grasslands. The data were analyzed within a Bayesian framework to: (1) determine pulse size and antecedent moisture (soil moisture prior to the pulse) effects on soil respiration, (2) quantify soil texture (coarse vs. fine) and cover type (bare vs. vegetated) effects on the response of soil respiration and its components (plant vs. microbial) to pulses, and (3) explore the relationship between long-term variation in pulse regimes and seasonal soil respiration. Regarding objective (1), larger pulses resulted in higher respiration rates, particularly from vegetated fine-textured soil, and dry antecedent conditions amplified respiration responses to pulses (wet antecedent conditions dampened the pulse response). Regarding (2), autotrophic (plant) activity was a significant source (???60%) of respiration and was more sensitive to pulses on coarse- versus fine-textured soils. The sensitivity of heterotrophic (microbial) respiration to pulses was highly dependent on antecedent soil water. Regarding (3), seasonal soil respiration was predicted to increase with both growing season precipitation and mean pulse size (but only for pulses

  15. Climate Change Education in Earth System Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänsel, Stephanie; Matschullat, Jörg

    2013-04-01

    The course "Atmospheric Research - Climate Change" is offered to master Earth System Science students within the specialisation "Climate and Environment" at the Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg. This module takes a comprehensive approach to climate sciences, reaching from the natural sciences background of climate change via the social components of the issue to the statistical analysis of changes in climate parameters. The course aims at qualifying the students to structure the physical and chemical basics of the climate system including relevant feedbacks. The students can evaluate relevant drivers of climate variability and change on various temporal and spatial scales and can transform knowledge from climate history to the present and the future. Special focus is given to the assessment of uncertainties related to climate observations and projections as well as the specific challenges of extreme weather and climate events. At the end of the course the students are able to critically reflect and evaluate climate change related results of scientific studies and related issues in media. The course is divided into two parts - "Climate Change" and "Climate Data Analysis" and encompasses two lectures, one seminar and one exercise. The weekly "Climate change" lecture transmits the physical and chemical background for climate variation and change. (Pre)historical, observed and projected climate changes and their effects on various sectors are being introduced and discussed regarding their implications for society, economics, ecology and politics. The related seminar presents and discusses the multiple reasons for controversy in climate change issues, based on various texts. Students train the presentation of scientific content and the discussion of climate change aspects. The biweekly lecture on "Climate data analysis" introduces the most relevant statistical tools and methods in climate science. Starting with checking data quality via tools of exploratory

  16. Weather it's Climate Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostrom, A.; Lashof, D.

    2004-12-01

    For almost two decades both national polls and in-depth studies of global warming perceptions have shown that people commonly conflate weather and global climate change. Not only are current weather events such as anecdotal heat waves, droughts or cold spells treated as evidence for or against global warming, but weather changes such as warmer weather and increased storm intensity and frequency are the consequences most likely to come to mind. Distinguishing weather from climate remains a challenge for many. This weather 'framing' of global warming may inhibit behavioral and policy change in several ways. Weather is understood as natural, on an immense scale that makes controlling it difficult to conceive. Further, these attributes contribute to perceptions that global warming, like weather, is uncontrollable. This talk presents an analysis of data from public opinion polls, focus groups, and cognitive studies regarding people's mental models of and 'frames' for global warming and climate change, and the role weather plays in these. This research suggests that priming people with a model of global warming as being caused by a "thickening blanket of carbon dioxide" that "traps heat" in the atmosphere solves some of these communications problems and makes it more likely that people will support policies to address global warming.

  17. Radar monitoring of hydrology in Maryland's forested coastal plain wetlands: Implications for predicted climate change and improved mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiner Lang, Megan

    Wetlands provide important services to society but Mid-Atlantic wetlands are at high risk for loss, with forested wetlands being especially vulnerable. Hydrology (flooding and soil moisture) controls wetland function and extent but it may be altered due to changes in climate and anthropogenic influence. Wetland hydrology must better understood in order to predict and mitigate the impact of these changes. Broad-scale forested wetland hydrology is difficult to monitor using ground-based and traditional remote sensing methods. C-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data could improve the capability to monitor forested wetland hydrology but the abilities and limitations of these data need further investigation. This study examined: (1) the link between climate and wetland hydrology; (2) the ability of ENVISAT SAR (C-HH and C-VV) data to monitor inundation and soil moisture in forested wetlands; (3) limitations inherent to C-band data (incidence angle, polarization, and phenology) when monitoring forested wetland hydrology; and (4) the accuracy of forested wetland maps produced using SAR data. The study was primarily conducted near the Patuxent River in Maryland but the influence of incidence angle was considered along the Roanoke River in North Carolina. This study showed: (1) climate was highly correlated with wetland inundation; (2) significant differences in C-VV and C-HH backscatter existed between forested areas of varying hydrology (uplands and wetlands) throughout the year; (3) C-HH backscatter was better correlated to hydrology than C-VV backscatter; (4) correlations were stronger during the leaf-off season; (5) the difference in backscatter between flooded and non-flooded areas did not sharply decline with incidence angle, as predicted; and (6) maps produced using SAR data had relatively high accuracy levels. Based on these findings, I concluded that hydrology is influenced by climate at the study site, and C-HH data should be able to monitor changes in

  18. The Land Use and Cover Change in Miombo Woodlands under Community Based Forest Management and Its Implication to Climate Change Mitigation: A Case of Southern Highlands of Tanzania

    OpenAIRE

    Lupala, Z. J.; Lusambo, L. P.; Y. M. Ngaga; Makatta, Angelingis A.

    2015-01-01

    In Tanzania, miombo woodland is the most significant forest vegetation with both ecological and socioeconomic importance. The vegetation has been threatened from land use and cover change due to unsustainable utilization. Over the past two decades, community based forest management (CBFM) has been practiced to address the problem. Given the current need to mitigate global climate change, little is known on the influence of CBFM to the land use and cover change in miombo woodlands and therefor...

  19. Implications for the hydrologic cycle under climate change due to the expansion of bioenergy crops in the Midwestern United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Phong V V; Kumar, Praveen; Drewry, Darren T

    2011-09-13

    To meet emerging bioenergy demands, significant areas of the large-scale agricultural landscape of the Midwestern United States could be converted to second generation bioenergy crops such as miscanthus and switchgrass. The high biomass productivity of bioenergy crops in a longer growing season linked tightly to water use highlight the potential for significant impact on the hydrologic cycle in the region. This issue is further exacerbated by the uncertainty in the response of the vegetation under elevated CO(2) and temperature. We use a mechanistic multilayer canopy-root-soil model to (i) capture the eco-physiological acclimations of bioenergy crops under climate change, and (ii) predict how hydrologic fluxes are likely to be altered from their current magnitudes. Observed data and Monte Carlo simulations of weather for recent past and future scenarios are used to characterize the variability range of the predictions. Under present weather conditions, miscanthus and switchgrass utilized more water than maize for total seasonal evapotranspiration by approximately 58% and 36%, respectively. Projected higher concentrations of atmospheric CO(2) (550 ppm) is likely to decrease water used for evapotranspiration of miscanthus, switchgrass, and maize by 12%, 10%, and 11%, respectively. However, when climate change with projected increases in air temperature and reduced summer rainfall are also considered, there is a net increase in evapotranspiration for all crops, leading to significant reduction in soil-moisture storage and specific surface runoff. These results highlight the critical role of the warming climate in potentially altering the water cycle in the region under extensive conversion of existing maize cropping to support bioenergy demand. PMID:21876137

  20. Heat exposure, cardiovascular stress and work productivity in rice harvesters in India: implications for a climate change future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahu, Subhashis; Sett, Moumita; Kjellstrom, Tord

    2013-01-01

    Excessive workplace heat exposures create well-known risks of heat stroke, and it limits the workers' capacity to sustain physical activity. There is very limited evidence available on how these effects reduce work productivity, while the quantitative relationship between heat and work productivity is an essential basis for climate change impact assessments. We measured hourly heat exposure in rice fields in West Bengal and recorded perceived health problems via interviews of 124 rice harvesters. In a sub-group (n = 48) heart rate was recorded every minute in a standard work situation. Work productivity was recorded as hourly rice bundle collection output. The hourly heat levels (WBGT = Wet Bulb Globe Temperature) were 26-32°C (at air temperatures of 30-38°C), exceeding international standards. Most workers reported exhaustion and pain during work on hot days. Heart rate recovered quickly at low heat, but more slowly at high heat, indicating cardiovascular strain. The hourly number of rice bundles collected was significantly reduced at WBGT>26°C (approximately 5% per°C of increased WBGT). We conclude that high heat exposure in agriculture caused heat strain and reduced work productivity. This reduction will be exacerbated by climate change and may undermine the local economy. PMID:23685851

  1. Global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the last decade marked changes of climatic factors have been observed, such as increases in average global earth temperatures, the amount of precipitation and the number of extreme weather events. Green house gases influence the energy flow in the atmosphere by absorbing infra-red radiation. An overview of the Austrian greenhouse gas emissions is given, including statistical data and their major sources. In 1999 the emissions of all six Kyoto greenhouse gases ( CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6) amounted to 79.2 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents . A comparison between the EC Members states is also presented. Finally the climate change strategy prepared by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management together with other ministries and the federal provinces is discussed, which main aim is to lead to an annual emission reduction of 16 million tonnes of CO2. Figs. 2, Tables 1. (nevyjel)

  2. Confronting Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mintzer, Irving M.

    1992-06-01

    This book, which was published in time for the Earth Summit in Brazil in June 1992, is likely to make a huge impact on the political and economic agendas of international policy makers. It summarizes the scientific findings of Working Group I of the IPCC in the first part of the book. While acknowledging the uncertainties in subsequent chapters, it challenges and expands upon the existing views on how we should tackle the problems of climate change.

  3. Climate change and forest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Studies of the earth's present forms of vegetation show that the climate change to be expected from double the current greenhouse gas concentrations would have a fundamental impact on forest structures. This problem can be confronted in two ways: Either by adusting long-term silvicultural planning according to predictions derived from vegetation model calculations; or by managing forests in the manner of a flexible response strategy until changes actually occur. An evaluation of representative surveys of forests in Bavaria has shown that contrary to widerspread regions of Bavaria. This suggests that in the event of a warning by 1 to 2 C, assuming all other climate parameters to remain roughly constant, the beech could play a major role in the forest structure in large parts of Bavaria. The data material also shows that in defiance of all pessimistic forecasts the growth of beech has markedly improved over the past decade. To date the only explanations offered for this phenomenon are growth-stimulating changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere, specifically the rise in carbon dioxide; and the enhanced nitrogen deposition in the soil. This example shows that the immense number of unpredictable influences prohibit long-term forecasts on forest development. Now if the forest is made up of a large number of tree species whose most favoured climatic ranges are known, then it is possible to meet climate changes with early silvicultural interventions and so preclude forest destruction. Scientifically founded silviculature can thus become an important support for the stability of our forests. (orig.)

  4. Outchasing climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    Pygmy possums, monarch butterflies, spoon-billed sandpipers, and a number of trees and other plants could be among the species unable to migrate fast enough to new habitat in the face of potential global climate changes, according to an August 30 report by the Switzerland-based World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and the U.S. based Clean-Air-Cool Planet (CACP), two conservation organizations.

  5. Sustainable development and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The relationships between the fight against climatic change and the objective of sustainable development have acquired an historical perspective: the Framework Convention of 1992, the Kyoto Protocol and the Bonn-Marrakech Accords. The Convention demonstrates that we must strive for economic growth and sustainable development to allow developing countries to better face the problems associated with climatic change. In the Kyoto Protocol, the commitments agreed upon by northern countries were presented as implicating a group of policies that promote sustainable development. The author discussed the challenges, the contradictions, and the means available to fight against climatic change since Rio. The author begins by expressing the hope that the Kyoto Protocol will be ratified at the Johannesburg Summit, since Russia is moving forward, despite the withdrawal of the United States. Scientists seem to agree that global warming is occurring due to the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. There are two major difficulties encountered in attempting to stabilize the levels of greenhouse gases: (1) are the countries that emit the most gases in a position to alter their activities in an effort to reduce emissions? and (2) will developing countries be able to avoid the pitfalls that led developed countries to emit greenhouse gases in enormous quantities?

  6. Managing Climate Change Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB1 Aspendale, Victoria 3195 (Australia)

    2003-07-01

    Issues of uncertainty, scale and delay between action and response mean that 'dangerous' climate change is best managed within a risk assessment framework that evolves as new information is gathered. Risk can be broadly defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence; the latter measured as vulnerability to greenhouse-induced climate change. The most robust way to assess climate change damages in a probabilistic framework is as the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance. Because vulnerability is dominated by local factors, global vulnerability is the aggregation of many local impacts being forced beyond their coping ranges. Several case studies, generic sea level rise and temperature, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and water supply in an Australian catchment, are used to show how local risk assessments can be assessed then expressed as a function of global warming. Impacts treated thus can be aggregated to assess global risks consistent with Article 2 of the UNFCCC. A 'proof of concept' example is then used to show how the stabilisation of greenhouse gases can constrain the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds at both the both local and global scale. This analysis suggests that even if the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages can be estimated, the likelihood of being able to meet a cost-benefit target is limited by both physical and socio-economic uncertainties. In terms of managing climate change risks, adaptation will be most effective at reducing vulnerability likely to occur at low levels of warming. Successive efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases will reduce the likelihood of reaching levels of global warming from the top down, with the highest potential temperatures being avoided first, irrespective of contributing scientific uncertainties. This implies that the first cuts in emissions will always produce the largest economic benefits in terms of avoided

  7. Stop the climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book tries to answer today's main environmental questions relative to the climatic change: how our massive petroleum and coal consumption has led to a greenhouse effect? What will happen tomorrow when Chinese and Indian people will reach the same energy consumption levels as people of western countries? Is it too late to reverse the trend? If solar energy is the long-term solution, what can we do in the meantime? The author presents the conditions we must fulfill to keep the Earth in a good environmental condition: 1 - a brief story of energy; 2 - the climatic changes and their secrets; 3 - the greenhouse effect: necessary for life but worrying for the future; 4 - the energy demand and the stakes; 2 - fossil fuels: abundance or shortage? 6 - can we fight against greenhouse gases? 7 - the nuclear energy (reactors and wastes management); 8 - the renewable energies: a necessary contribution at the century scale and the unique answer at the millennium scale; 9 - the time of main choices is not so far; 10 - two questions (energy demand and climatic change) and a unique answer (sustainable development). (J.S.)

  8. Cyanobacteria are confined to dewless habitats within a dew desert: Implications for past and future climate change for lithic microorganisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidron, Giora J.; Starinsky, Abraham; Yaalon, Dan H.

    2014-11-01

    Although covering almost all rock outcrops around the world, little is known regarding the factors that govern the spatial distribution of lithic cyanobacteria and lichens. This is also the case in the Negev Desert, where cyanobacteria predominate on the rock outcrops of the south-facing slopes and lichens on the rock outcrops of the north-facing slopes. Hypothesizing that abiotic conditions determine their distribution, radiation, temperature, rain, dew and fog were monitored over a two-year period (2008-2010) at cyanobacteria- and lichen-dwelling habitats within a first-order drainage basin in the Negev Highlands. While non-significant differences characterized the rain amounts, substantial differences in substrate temperatures were recorded which resulted in turn in fundamental differences in the non-rainfall water regime. While dew condensed at the rock outcrops of the lichen habitat, no condensation took place at the cyanobacteria habitat. Contrary to the common belief, cyanobacteria were found to inhabit dewless habitats. As a result, cyanobacteria solely rely on rain precipitation for growth and can therefore serve as bioindicators for dewless habitats within the dewy Negev Desert. The findings may have important implications regarding Earth colonization, soil forming processes and geochemical processes following climate warming. They may explain lichen expansion and subsequent O2 increase during the mid Neoproterozoic providing indirect support for substantial photosynthetic activity and high weathering rates during this era.

  9. Non-linear Feedbacks Between Forest Mortality and Climate Change: Implications for Snow Cover, Water Resources, and Ecosystem Recovery in Western North America (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, P. D.; Harpold, A. A.; Biederman, J. A.; Gochis, D. J.; Litvak, M. E.; Ewers, B. E.; Broxton, P. D.; Reed, D. E.

    2013-12-01

    Unprecedented levels of tree mortality from insect infestation and wildfire are dramatically altering forest structure and composition in Western North America. Warming temperatures and increased drought stress have been implicated as major factors in the increasing spatial extent and frequency of these forest disturbances, but it is unclear how these changes in forest structure will interact with ongoing climate change to affect snowmelt water resources either for society or for ecosystem recovery following mortality. Because surface discharge, groundwater recharge, and ecosystem productivity all depend on seasonal snowmelt, a critical knowledge gap exists not only in predicting discharge, but in quantifying spatial and temporal variability in the partitioning of snowfall into abiotic vapor loss, plant available water, recharge, and streamflow within the complex mosaic of forest disturbance and topography that characterizes western mountain catchments. This presentation will address this knowledge gap by synthesizing recent work on snowpack dynamics and ecosystem productivity from seasonally snow-covered forests along a climate gradient from Arizona to Wyoming; including undisturbed sites, recently burned forests, and areas of extensive insect-induced forest mortality. Both before-after and control-impacted studies of forest disturbance on snow accumulation and ablation suggest that the spatial scale of snow distribution increases following disturbance, but net snow water input in a warming climate will increase only in topographically sheltered areas. While forest disturbance changes spatial scale of snowpack partitioning, the amount and especially the timing of snow cover accumulation and ablation are strongly related to interannual variability in ecosystem productivity with both earlier snowmelt and later snow accumulation associated with decreased carbon uptake. Empirical analyses and modeling are being developed to identify landscapes most sensitive to

  10. Survival and growth patterns of white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss) rangewide provenances and their implications for climate change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Pengxin; Parker, William H; Cherry, Marilyn; Colombo, Steve; Parker, William C; Man, Rongzhou; Roubal, Ngaire

    2014-06-01

    Intraspecific assisted migration (ISAM) through seed transfer during artificial forest regeneration has been suggested as an adaptation strategy to enhance forest resilience and productivity under future climate. In this study, we assessed the risks and benefits of ISAM in white spruce based on long-term and multilocation, rangewide provenance test data. Our results indicate that the adaptive capacity and growth potential of white spruce varied considerably among 245 range-wide provenances sampled across North America; however, the results revealed that local populations could be outperformed by nonlocal ones. Provenances originating from south-central Ontario and southwestern Québec, Canada, close to the southern edge of the species' natural distribution, demonstrated superior growth in more northerly environments compared with local populations and performed much better than populations from western Canada and Alaska, United States. During the 19-28 years between planting and measurement, the southern provenances have not been more susceptible to freezing damage compared with local populations, indicating they have the potential to be used now for the reforestation of more northerly planting sites; based on changing temperature, these seed sources potentially could maintain or increase white spruce productivity at or above historical levels at northern sites. A universal response function (URF), which uses climatic variables to predict provenance performance across field trials, indicated a relatively weak relationship between provenance performance and the climate at provenance origin. Consequently, the URF from this study did not provide information useful to ISAM. The ecological and economic importance of conserving white spruce genetic resources in south-central Ontario and southwestern Québec for use in ISAM is discussed. PMID:25360273

  11. Climate change and stream temperature projections in the Columbia River Basin: biological implications of spatial variation in hydrologic drivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. L. Ficklin

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Water temperature is a primary physical factor regulating the persistence and distribution of aquatic taxa. Considering projected increases in temperature and changes in precipitation in the coming century, accurate assessment of suitable thermal habitat in freshwater systems is critical for predicting aquatic species responses to changes in climate and for guiding adaptation strategies. We use a hydrologic model coupled with a stream temperature model and downscaled General Circulation Model outputs to explore the spatially and temporally varying changes in stream temperature at the subbasin and ecological province scale for the Columbia River Basin. On average, stream temperatures are projected to increase 3.5 °C for the spring, 5.2 °C for the summer, 2.7 °C for the fall, and 1.6 °C for the winter. While results indicate changes in stream temperature are correlated with changes in air temperature, our results also capture the important, and often ignored, influence of hydrological processes on changes in stream temperature. Decreases in future snowcover will result in increased thermal sensitivity within regions that were previously buffered by the cooling effect of flow originating as snowmelt. Other hydrological components, such as precipitation, surface runoff, lateral soil flow, and groundwater, are negatively correlated to increases in stream temperature depending on the season and ecological province. At the ecological province scale, the largest increase in annual stream temperature was within the Mountain Snake ecological province, which is characterized by non-migratory coldwater fish species. Stream temperature changes varied seasonally with the largest projected stream temperature increases occurring during the spring and summer for all ecological provinces. Our results indicate that stream temperatures are driven by local processes and ultimately require a physically-explicit modeling approach to accurately characterize the

  12. Climate change impact on future ocean acidification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Elevated atmospheric C02 levels and associated uptake by the ocean is changing its carbon chemistry, leading to an acidification. The implications of future ocean acidification on the marine ecosystem are unclear but seemingly detrimental particularly to those organisms and phytoplankton that secrete calcium carbonate (like corals). Here we present new results from the Australian CSIRO General Circulation Model that predicts the changing nature of oceanic carbon chemistry in response to future climate change feedbacks (circulation, temperature and biological). We will discuss the implications of future ocean acidification and the potential implications on Australia's marine ecosystems

  13. Designing Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, P. C.; ORyan, C.

    2012-12-01

    In a time when sensationalism rules the online world, it is best to keep things short. The people of the online world are not passing back and forth lengthy articles, but rather brief glimpses of complex information. This is the target audience we attempt to educate. Our challenge is then to attack not only ignorance, but also apathy toward global climate change, while conforming to popular modes of learning. When communicating our scientific material, it was difficult to determine what level of information was appropriate for our audience, especially with complex subject matter. Our unconventional approach for communicating the carbon crisis as it applies to global climate change caters to these 'recreational learners'. Using story-telling devices acquired from Carolyne's biomedical art background coupled with Peter's extensive knowledge of carbon cycle and ecosystems science, we developed a dynamic series of illustrations that capture the attention of a callous audience. Adapting complex carbon cycle and climate science into comic-book-style animations creates a channel between artist, scientist, and the general public. Brief scenes of information accompanied by text provide a perfect platform for visual learners, as well as fresh portrayals of stale material for the jaded. In this way art transcends the barriers of the cerebral and the abstract, paving the road to understanding.;

  14. Climate Change and Forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The causes for climatic change in the period between 3000 and 1250 BC was different from what present scenario portends. After industrialization, temperatures has arisen by 0.5 degrees centigrade every 100 years since factories started to spew out smoke. Over the last two centuries, the concentration of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by more than 25% from about 275ppm in the 18th Century to more than 350ppm at the present time while the current level is expected to double by the year 2050. The increase in Carbon Dioxide and together with other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will trap the sun's radiation causing the mean global temperatures to rise by between 1 degree and 5 degrees centigrade by 2050. The climatic change affects forestry in many ways for instance, temperatures determines the rate at which enzymes catalyze biochemical reactions while solar radiation provide the energy which drive light reactions in photosynthesis. On the other hand, water which is a component of climate is a universal solvent which enables plants to transport nutrients through the transpirational stream, and similarly transport photosynthates from the leave to all parts of the plants. It is a raw material for photosynthesis and important for maintaining turgidity, which is important for growth

  15. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    The absence of a global agreement on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions calls for adaptation to climate change. The associated paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change...... adaptation needed. Issues that must be addressed in case a strategic approach is not developed, as the building sector is continuously investing in measures to adapt to climate change as impacts emerge are described....

  16. Lay rationalities of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Alves, Fátima; Caeiro, Sandra; Azeiteiro, Ulisses

    2014-01-01

    In this special issue we were also interested in revealing the level of concepts and the level of social action, trying to contribute to the answer of questions like: How local populations explain, interpret and deal with climate change? What are the individual and collective actions in response to climate change? How do populations deal with Climate Change mitigation (risk perception and risk-mitigating)? What is the available traditional knowledge about Climate Change? How does the cu...

  17. Economic impacts of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Tol, Richard S.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change will probably have a limited impact on the economy and human welfare in the 21st century. The initial impacts of climate change may well be positive. In the long run, the negative impacts dominate the positive ones. Negative impacts will be substantially greater in poorer, hotter, and lower-lying countries. Poverty reduction complements greenhouse gas emissions reduction as a means to reduce climate change impacts. Climate change may affect the growth rate of the economy and ma...

  18. Climate change scenarios for Canada's national parks : a users manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A screening level impact assessment has shown that the implications of climate change for Canada's national parks are considerable. Climate change scenarios will be an important component in examining the potential climate change impacts and the implications of adaptation strategies. Most climate change scenarios are based on vulnerability, impact and adaptation research. This user's manual describes the development of 3 types of climate change scenarios including scenarios from global climate models (GCMs), bioclimate scenarios and daily scenarios for use by Parks Canada. The manual offers advice to first-time climate change scenario users in choosing and interpreting climate change, bioclimate and daily scenarios. It also addresses the theoretical and practical foundations of each climate scenario and shows how to access data regarding the various scenarios. Hands-on exercises are included as an interpretive aid. 20 refs., 4 tabs., 19 figs

  19. Past climate changes and permafrost depth at the Lake El'gygytgyn site: implications from data and thermal modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Mottaghy

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available We present results of numerical simulations of the temperature field of the subsurface around and beneath the crater Lake El'gygytgyn in NE Russia, which is subject of an interdisciplinary drilling campaign within the International Continental Drilling Program (ICDP. This study focuses on determining the permafrost depth and the transition between talik and permafrost regimes, both, under steady-state and transient conditions of past climate changes. Thermal properties of the subsurface are deduced from measurements on three representative core samples taken from the quaternary sediments and the underlying impact rock. Further information is derived from the available geophysical logs and literature data. The temperature data from the lake borehole ICDP site 5011-1 down to 400 m depth below lake bottom are dominated by thermal perturbations related to the drilling process, and thus only give reliable values for the lowermost value in the borehole. Undisturbed temperature data recorded over more than two years in the 140 m deep land-based borehole ICDP site 5011-3 allow to determine the mean annual ground surface temperature (GST, as well as its history (GSTH to a certain extent. Although the borehole's depth is by far not sufficient for a complete reconstruction of past temperatures back to the last glacial maximum (LGM, the temperature data and our modelling results show that there is still an influence of the LGM on the thermal regime, and thus on the permafrost depth. Whereas the latter result is obtained from the deeper part of the temperature profile, the rather strong curvature of the temperature data in shallower depths around 30 m can be explained by a comparatively large amplitude of the Little Ice Age (LIA, with a subsequently persistent cool period. Other mechanisms like varying porosity may also have an influence on the temperature profile, however, our modelling studies imply a major contribution from recent climate changes.

  20. Past climate changes and permafrost depth at the Lake El'gygytgyn site: implications from data and thermal modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mottaghy, D.; Schwamborn, G.; Rath, V.

    2012-07-01

    We present results of numerical simulations of the temperature field of the subsurface around and beneath the crater Lake El'gygytgyn in NE Russia, which is subject of an interdisciplinary drilling campaign within the International Continental Drilling Program (ICDP). This study focuses on determining the permafrost depth and the transition between talik and permafrost regimes, both, under steady-state and transient conditions of past climate changes. Thermal properties of the subsurface are deduced from measurements on three representative core samples taken from the quaternary sediments and the underlying impact rock. Further information is derived from the available geophysical logs and literature data. The temperature data from the lake borehole ICDP site 5011-1 down to 400 m depth below lake bottom are dominated by thermal perturbations related to the drilling process, and thus only give reliable values for the lowermost value in the borehole. Undisturbed temperature data recorded over more than two years in the 140 m deep land-based borehole ICDP site 5011-3 allow to determine the mean annual ground surface temperature (GST), as well as its history (GSTH) to a certain extent. Although the borehole's depth is by far not sufficient for a complete reconstruction of past temperatures back to the last glacial maximum (LGM), the temperature data and our modelling results show that there is still an influence of the LGM on the thermal regime, and thus on the permafrost depth. Whereas the latter result is obtained from the deeper part of the temperature profile, the rather strong curvature of the temperature data in shallower depths around 30 m can be explained by a comparatively large amplitude of the Little Ice Age (LIA), with a subsequently persistent cool period. Other mechanisms like varying porosity may also have an influence on the temperature profile, however, our modelling studies imply a major contribution from recent climate changes.

  1. Agenda to address climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document looks at addressing climate change in the 21st century. Topics covered are: Responding to climate change; exploring new avenues in energy efficiency; energy efficiency and alternative energy; residential sector; commercial sector; industrial sector; transportation sector; communities; renewable energy; understanding forests to mitigate and adapt to climate change; the Forest Carbon budget; mitigation and adaptation

  2. Climate change, agriculture and poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Hertel, Thomas W.; Rosch, Stephanie D

    2010-01-01

    Although much has been written about climate change and poverty as distinct and complex problems, the link between them has received little attention. Understanding this link is vital for the formulation of effective policy responses to climate change. This paper focuses on agriculture as a primary means by which the impacts of climate change are transmitted to the poor, and as a sector at...

  3. Agriculture and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    How will increases in levels of CO2 and changes in temperature affect food production? A recently issued report analyzes prospects for US agriculture 1990 to 2030. The report, prepared by a distinguished Task Force, first projects the evolution of agriculture assuming increased levels of CO2 but no climate change. Then it deals with effects of climate change, followed by a discussion of how greenhouse emissions might be diminished by agriculture. Economic and policy matters are also covered. How the climate would respond to more greenhouse gases is uncertain. If temperatures were higher, there would be more evaporation and more precipitation. Where would the rain fall? That is a good question. Weather in a particular locality is not determined by global averages. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s could be repeated at its former site or located in another region such as the present Corn Belt. But depending on the realities at a given place, farmers have demonstrated great flexibility in choosing what they may grow. Their flexibility has been increased by the numerous varieties of seeds of major crops that are now available, each having different characteristics such as drought resistance and temperature tolerance. In past, agriculture has contributed about 5% of US greenhouse gases. Two large components have involved emissions of CO2 from farm machinery and from oxidation of organic matter in soil due to tillage. Use of diesel fuel and more efficient machinery has reduced emissions from that source by 40%. In some areas changed tillage practices are now responsible for returning carbon to the soil. The report identifies an important potential for diminishing net US emissions of CO2 by growth and utilization of biomass. Large areas are already available that could be devoted to energy crops

  4. Climatic change and impacts: a general introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    These proceedings are divided into six parts containing 29 technical papers. 1. An Overview of the Climatic System, 2. Past climate Changes, 3. Climate Processes and Climate Modelling, 4. Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change, 5. Climatic Impacts, 6. STUDENTS' PAPERS

  5. Climatic implications of ice microphysics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liou, K.N. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)

    1995-09-01

    Based on aircraft measurements of mid-latitude cirrus clouds, ice crystal size distribution and ice water content (IWC) are shown to be dependent on temperature. This dependence is also evident from the theoretical consideration of ice crystal growth. Using simple models of the diffusion and accretion growth of ice particles, the computed mean ice crystal size and IWC compare reasonably well with the measured mean values. The temperature dependence of ice crystal size and IWC has important climatic implications in that the temperature field perturbed by external radiative forcings, such as greenhouse warming, can alter the composition of ice crystal clouds. Through radiative transfer, ice microphysics can in turn affect the temperature field. Higher IWC would increase cloud solar albedo and infrared emissivity, while for a given IWC, larger crystals would reduce cloud albedo and emissivity. The competing effects produced by greenhouse temperature perturbations via ice micro-physics and radiation interactions and feedbacks are assessed by a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model that includes an advanced radiation parameterization program. 3 figs.

  6. Modelling of dripwater hydrology and hydrogeochemistry in a weakly karstified aquifer (Bath, UK): Implications for climate change studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairchild, Ian J.; Tuckwell, George W.; Baker, Andy; Tooth, Anna F.

    2006-04-01

    A better knowledge of dripwater hydrology in karst systems is needed to understand the palaeoclimate implications of temporal variations in Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca of calcareous cave deposits. Quantitative modelling of drip hydrology and hydrochemistry was undertaken at a disused limestone mine (Brown's Folly Mine) in SW England overlain by 15 m of poorly karstified Jurassic limestones, with sub-vertical fracturing enhanced by proximity to an escarpment. Discharge was monitored at 15 sites intermittently from the beginning of 1996, and every 10-20 days from later 1996 to early 1998. Samples for hydrochemical parameters (pH, alkalinity, cations, anions, fluorescence) were taken corresponding to a sub-set of these data and supplemented by bedrock and soil sampling, limited continuously logged discharge, and soil water observations. Three sites, covering the range of discharge (approximately 1 μL s -1 to 1 ml s -1 maximum discharge) and hydrochemical behaviours, were studied in more detail. A quantitative flow model was constructed, based on two parallel unit hydrographs: responsive and relatively unresponsive to discharge events, respectively. The linear response and conservative mixing assumptions of the model were tested with hydrogeochemical data. Dripwaters at many of sites are characterized by evidence of prior calcite precipitation in the flowpath above the mine, which in the higher discharging sites diminishes at high flow. Also at low flow rates, dripwaters may access seepage reservoirs enriched in Mg and/or Sr, dependent on the site. The discharge at all three sites can be approximated by the flow model, but in each case, hydrochemical data show violations of the model assumptions. All sites show evidence of non-conservative mixing, and there are temporal discontinuities in behaviour, which may be stimulated by airlocks generated at low flow. Enhanced Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca often do relate to low-flow conditions, but the relationships between climate and hydrogeochemical

  7. Potential 21st century changes to the mammal fauna of Denmark - implications of climate change, land-use, and invasive species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fløjgaard, Camilla; Morueta-Holme, Naia; Skov, Flemming; Madsen, Aksel Bo; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2009-11-01

    The moderate temperature increase of 0.74 °C in the 20th century has caused latitudinal and altitudinal range shifts in many species including mammals. Therefore, given the more dramatic temperature increase predicted for the 21st century, we can therefore expect even stronger range shifts as well. However, European mammals are already faced with other anthropogenic pressures, notably habitat loss, pollution, overexploitation, and invasive species, and will have to face the combined challenge posed by climate change in a landscape highly influenced by human activities. As an example of the possible consequences of land use, invasive species, and climate change for the regional-scale mammal species composition, we here focus on the potential 21st century changes to the mammal fauna of Denmark. Supported by species distribution modelling, we present a discussion of the possible changes to the Danish mammal fauna: Which species are likely to become locally extinct? Which new species are most likely to immigrate? And, what is the potential threat from invasive species? We find that future climate change is likely to cause a general enrichment of the Danish mammal fauna by the potential immigration of seventeen new species. Only the northern birch mouse (Sicista betulina) is at risk of extinction from climate change predicted. The European native mammals are not anticipated to contribute to the invasive-species problem as they coexist with most Danish species in other parts of Europe. However, non-European invasive species are also likely to enter the Danish fauna and may negatively impact the native species.

  8. Potential 21st century changes to the mammal fauna of Denmark - implications of climate change, land-use, and invasive species

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Floejgaard, Camilla; Morueta-Holme, Naia; Svenning, Jens-Christian [Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, DK-8000 Aarhus C (Denmark); Skov, Flemming; Madsen, Aksel Bo, E-mail: camilla.flojgaard@biology.au.d [Department of Wildlife Ecology and Biodiversity, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Grenaavej 14, DK-8410 Roende (Denmark)

    2009-11-01

    The moderate temperature increase of 0.74 deg. C in the 20th century has caused latitudinal and altitudinal range shifts in many species including mammals. Therefore, given the more dramatic temperature increase predicted for the 21st century, we can therefore expect even stronger range shifts as well. However, European mammals are already faced with other anthropogenic pressures, notably habitat loss, pollution, overexploitation, and invasive species, and will have to face the combined challenge posed by climate change in a landscape highly influenced by human activities. As an example of the possible consequences of land use, invasive species, and climate change for the regional-scale mammal species composition, we here focus on the potential 21st century changes to the mammal fauna of Denmark. Supported by species distribution modelling, we present a discussion of the possible changes to the Danish mammal fauna: Which species are likely to become locally extinct? Which new species are most likely to immigrate? And, what is the potential threat from invasive species? We find that future climate change is likely to cause a general enrichment of the Danish mammal fauna by the potential immigration of seventeen new species. Only the northern birch mouse (Sicista betulina) is at risk of extinction from climate change predicted. The European native mammals are not anticipated to contribute to the invasive-species problem as they coexist with most Danish species in other parts of Europe. However, non-European invasive species are also likely to enter the Danish fauna and may negatively impact the native species.

  9. Potential 21st century changes to the mammal fauna of Denmark - implications of climate change, land-use, and invasive species

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The moderate temperature increase of 0.74 deg. C in the 20th century has caused latitudinal and altitudinal range shifts in many species including mammals. Therefore, given the more dramatic temperature increase predicted for the 21st century, we can therefore expect even stronger range shifts as well. However, European mammals are already faced with other anthropogenic pressures, notably habitat loss, pollution, overexploitation, and invasive species, and will have to face the combined challenge posed by climate change in a landscape highly influenced by human activities. As an example of the possible consequences of land use, invasive species, and climate change for the regional-scale mammal species composition, we here focus on the potential 21st century changes to the mammal fauna of Denmark. Supported by species distribution modelling, we present a discussion of the possible changes to the Danish mammal fauna: Which species are likely to become locally extinct? Which new species are most likely to immigrate? And, what is the potential threat from invasive species? We find that future climate change is likely to cause a general enrichment of the Danish mammal fauna by the potential immigration of seventeen new species. Only the northern birch mouse (Sicista betulina) is at risk of extinction from climate change predicted. The European native mammals are not anticipated to contribute to the invasive-species problem as they coexist with most Danish species in other parts of Europe. However, non-European invasive species are also likely to enter the Danish fauna and may negatively impact the native species.

  10. Scenarios of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article provides an overview of current and prospected climate changes, their causes and implied threats, and of a possible route to keep the changes within a tolerable level. The global mean temperature has up to 2005 risen by almost 0.8 C deg., and the change expected by 2100 is as large as glacial-interglacial changes in the past, which were commonly spread out over 10 000 years. As is well known, the principle actor is man-made CO2, which, together with other anthropogenic gases, enhances the atmosphere's greenhouse effect. The only man-made cooling agent appears to be atmospheric aerosols. Atmospheric CO2 has now reached levels unprecedented during the past several million years. Principal threats are a greatly reduced biodiversity (species extinction), changes in the atmospheric precipitation pattern, more frequent weather extremes, and not the least, sea level rise. The expected precipitation pattern will enhance water scarcity in and around regions that suffer from water shortage already, affecting many countries. Sea level rise will act on a longer time scale. It is expected to amount to more than 50 cm by 2100, and over the coming centuries the potential rise is of the order of 10 m. A global-mean temperature increase of 2 C deg. is often quoted as a safe limit, beyond which irreversible effects must be expected. To achieve that limit, a major, rapid, and coordinated international effort will be needed. Up to the year 2050, the man-made CO2 releases must be reduced by at least 50%. This must be accompanied by a complete overhaul of the global energy supply toward depending increasingly on the Sun's supply of energy, both directly and in converted form, such as wind energy. Much of the information and insight available today has been generated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in particular its Fourth Assessment Report of 2007, which greatly advanced both public attention and political action. (author)

  11. Viewpoint paper. Islander mobilities: any change from climate change?

    OpenAIRE

    Kelman, I.; Stojanov, R.; Khan, S; Gila, O. A.; Duží, B.; Vikhrov, D.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is stated as being likely to cause the forced movement of millions of people, especially from small island communities. Such statements are not always placed in wider and deeper understandings of mobility and non-mobility. Focusing on island communities, this paper assesses some of the implications inherent in mobility and non-mobility choices related to climate change in comparison to other factors and drivers. Culture and networks are examples of drivers demonstrating that it...

  12. The climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper has been developed to show how the future of the climate of our planet could become. The factors that takes places in this possible change are also carefully explained. The human action over the environment is probably disturbing the atmospheric system. The processes that involves this perturbations are shown: pollution, fires in hugh regions such as Amazonia Central Australia, Central and East Africa and some others. Factors like these seems are destroying the ozone shell. We also explain the problems to be sure that the expectatives for the future are reliable. Finally, we propose some solutions for this situation. Special situations like nuclear winter or the desertization are also included. (Author)

  13. Quantifying seasonal volume of groundwater in high elevation meadows: Implications for complex aquifer geometry in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciruzzi, Dominick M.

    The hydrologic impacts of rising global temperatures are severe and imminent particularly in snow-dominated regions. In the western United States, high elevation meadows are among the ecosystems highly sensitive to climate change. High elevation meadows are groundwater dependent ecosystems and rely on seasonal snowpack melt in order to support ecologic function and baseflow to streams. This stream flow in turn supplies an estimated 2.6 million San Francisco residents with water. Once the snow melts and recharges the aquifer, groundwater supports vegetation separate from the surrounding hillslopes, which promotes important ecologic functions like flood regulation and nutrient cycling. Groundwater also supports baseflow to perennial rivers late into the summer months transferring this snowmelt to downstream ecologic and human communities. By 2100 snowpack accumulation in the Sierra Nevada is expected to decrease by ~40-90% due to near-surface temperature rise. Though precipitation intensity is not expected to change, a decrease in snowpack will change the timing and magnitude of groundwater recharge necessary to sustain high elevation meadows. An additional climate-driven shift and decrease in peak stream flow to early spring away from summer when demand is highest puts into question ecosystem survivability and water supply to downstream users. Here, a new quantitative framework is presented to lay the foundation for the widespread identification of vulnerabilities in high elevation meadows due to climate change. This research proposed and tested a new conceptual model for the volume of groundwater stored in high elevation meadows similar to that of a reservoir with active and dead storage. The seasonal fluctuations in active storage, which is defined as the volume of groundwater able to exchange between the aquifer, streams, and vegetation, are thought to be highly sensitive to aquifer parameters, such as bedrock geometry, meadow gradient, and hydraulic conductivity

  14. Past climate changes and permafrost depth at the Lake El'gygytgyn site: implications from data and thermal modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Mottaghy

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the temperature field observed in boreholes drilled as part of interdisciplinary scientific campaign targeting the El'gygytgyn Crater Lake in NE Russia. Temperature data are available from two sites: the lake borehole 5011-1 located near the center of the lake reaching 400 m depth, and the land borehole 5011-3 at the rim of the lake, with a depth of 140 m. Constraints on permafrost depth and past climate changes are derived from numerical simulation of the thermal regime associated with the lake-related talik structure. The thermal properties of the subsurface needed for these simulations are based on laboratory measurements of representative cores from the quaternary sediments and the underlying impact-affected rock, complemented by further information from geophysical logs and data from published literature. The temperature observations in the lake borehole 5011-1 are dominated by thermal perturbations related to the drilling process, and thus only give reliable values for the lowermost value in the borehole. Undisturbed temperature data recorded over more than two years are available in the 140 m deep land-based borehole 5011-3. The analysis of these observations allows determination of not only the recent mean annual ground surface temperature, but also the ground surface temperature history, though with large uncertainties. Although the depth of this borehole is by far too insufficient for a complete reconstruction of past temperatures back to the Last Glacial Maximum, it still affects the thermal regime, and thus permafrost depth. This effect is constrained by numerical modeling: assuming that the lake borehole observations are hardly influenced by the past changes in surface air temperature, an estimate of steady-state conditions is possible, leading to a meaningful value of 14 ± 5 K for the post-glacial warming. The strong curvature of the temperature data in shallower depths around 60 m can be explained by a

  15. Ecosystem carbon stock influenced by plantation practice: implications for planting forests as a measure of climate change mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Chengzhang; Luo, Yiqi; Fang, Changming; Li, Bo

    2010-01-01

    Uncertainties remain in the potential of forest plantations to sequestrate carbon (C). We synthesized 86 experimental studies with paired-site design, using a meta-analysis approach, to quantify the differences in ecosystem C pools between plantations and their corresponding adjacent primary and secondary forests (natural forests). Totaled ecosystem C stock in plant and soil pools was 284 Mg C ha(-1) in natural forests and decreased by 28% in plantations. In comparison with natural forests, plantations decreased aboveground net primary production, litterfall, and rate of soil respiration by 11, 34, and 32%, respectively. Fine root biomass, soil C concentration, and soil microbial C concentration decreased respectively by 66, 32, and 29% in plantations relative to natural forests. Soil available N, P and K concentrations were lower by 22, 20 and 26%, respectively, in plantations than in natural forests. The general pattern of decreased ecosystem C pools did not change between two different groups in relation to various factors: stand age ( or = 25 years), stand types (broadleaved vs. coniferous and deciduous vs. evergreen), tree species origin (native vs. exotic) of plantations, land-use history (afforestation vs. reforestation) and site preparation for plantations (unburnt vs. burnt), and study regions (tropic vs. temperate). The pattern also held true across geographic regions. Our findings argued against the replacement of natural forests by the plantations as a measure of climate change mitigation. PMID:20523733

  16. Some like it hot: the influence and implications of climate change on coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei and coffee production in East Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliana Jaramillo

    Full Text Available The negative effects of climate change are already evident for many of the 25 million coffee farmers across the tropics and the 90 billion dollar (US coffee industry. The coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei, the most important pest of coffee worldwide, has already benefited from the temperature rise in East Africa: increased damage to coffee crops and expansion in its distribution range have been reported. In order to anticipate threats and prioritize management actions for H. hampei we present here, maps on future distributions of H. hampei in coffee producing areas of East Africa. Using the CLIMEX model we relate present-day insect distributions to current climate and then project the fitted climatic envelopes under future scenarios A2A and B2B (for HADCM3 model. In both scenarios, the situation with H. hampei is forecasted to worsen in the current Coffea arabica producing areas of Ethiopia, the Ugandan part of the Lake Victoria and Mt. Elgon regions, Mt. Kenya and the Kenyan side of Mt. Elgon, and most of Rwanda and Burundi. The calculated hypothetical number of generations per year of H. hampei is predicted to increase in all C. arabica-producing areas from five to ten. These outcomes will have serious implications for C. arabica production and livelihoods in East Africa. We suggest that the best way to adapt to a rise of temperatures in coffee plantations could be via the introduction of shade trees in sun grown plantations. The aims of this study are to fill knowledge gaps existing in the coffee industry, and to draft an outline for the development of an adaptation strategy package for climate change on coffee production. An abstract in Spanish is provided as Abstract S1.

  17. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2014-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that...... enable adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach...... is based on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant...

  18. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2013-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that...... enable adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach...... is based on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant...

  19. Can increased organic consumption mitigate climate changes?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heerwagen, Lennart Ravn; Andersen, Laura Mørch; Christensen, Tove;

    2014-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the evidence for a positive correlation between increased consumption of organic products and potential climate change mitigation via decreased consumption of meat and it is discussed to what extent organic consumption is motivated by climate...... correlation between increasing organic budget shares and decreasing meat budget shares is found. People include food-related behaviour such as the purchase of organic food and reduced meat consumption as ways to mitigate climate change. However, other behavioural modifications such as reduction of car usage...... household data would supplement the analyses. Practical implications – Demand-side policies aiming at climate-friendly consumption could be a central factor in combating climate change. Already, food-related mitigation strategies such as lowered meat consumption are established practices among a group of...

  20. Financing for climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper argues that the 2009 pledge of $100 billion in 2020 by rich countries for mitigation and adaptation should not be used for mitigation by commercial firms in developing countries, since that would artificially create competitive advantage for such firms and provoke protectionist reactions in the rich countries where firms must bear the costs of mitigation, thereby undermining the world trading system. The costs of heating the earth's surface should be borne by all emitters, just as the price of copper and other scarce resources is paid by all users, rich or poor. That will still leave scope for rich country help in adaptation to climate change and in bringing to fruition new technologies to reduce emissions. - Highlights: ► Slowing climate change significantly cannot occur without the participation of the largest emitters among developing countries. ► The cost of GHG mitigation must be the same for all competing firms, wherever they are located. ► The world trading system is seriously at risk in the face of a poorly designed system for global mitigation of greenhouse gases. ► No significantly emitting firm, anywhere, public or private, should be protected from the incentive to reduce its emissions. ► Higher prices for fossil fuels need not reduce national growth rates in consuming countries.

  1. Mapping Vulnerability to Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Heltberg, Rasmus; Bonch-Osmolovskiy, Misha

    2011-01-01

    This paper develops a methodology for regional disaggregated estimation and mapping of the areas that are ex-ante the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and variability and applies it to Tajikistan, a mountainous country highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The authors construct the vulnerability index as a function of exposure to climate variability and natura...

  2. NPOESS, Essential Climates Variables and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsythe-Newell, S. P.; Bates, J. J.; Barkstrom, B. R.; Privette, J. L.; Kearns, E. J.

    2008-12-01

    Advancement in understanding, predicting and mitigating against climate change implies collaboration, close monitoring of Essential Climate Variable (ECV)s through development of Climate Data Record (CDR)s and effective action with specific thematic focus on human and environmental impacts. Towards this end, NCDC's Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) Program Office developed Climate Long-term Information and Observation system (CLIO) for satellite data identification, characterization and use interrogation. This "proof-of-concept" online tool provides the ability to visualize global CDR information gaps and overlaps with options to temporally zoom-in from satellite instruments to climate products, data sets, data set versions and files. CLIO provides an intuitive one-stop web site that displays past, current and planned launches of environmental satellites in conjunction with associated imagery and detailed information. This tool is also capable of accepting and displaying Web-based input from Subject Matter Expert (SME)s providing a global to sub-regional scale perspective of all ECV's and their impacts upon climate studies. SME's can access and interact with temporal data from the past and present, or for future planning of products, datasets/dataset versions, instruments, platforms and networks. CLIO offers quantifiable prioritization of ECV/CDR impacts that effectively deal with climate change issues, their associated impacts upon climate, and this offers an intuitively objective collaboration and consensus building tool. NCDC's latest tool empowers decision makers and the scientific community to rapidly identify weaknesses and strengths in climate change monitoring strategies and significantly enhances climate change collaboration and awareness.

  3. Review of Climate Change Geoengineering: Philosophical Perspectives

    OpenAIRE

    Ashford, Nicholas A.

    2013-01-01

    This book is an apology for addressing global climate change through the application of geo-engineering (GE) which encompasses injection of reflective sulfate particles into the air and seeding the ocean with iron. The ethical implications of CE are addressed but most of the book is relegated to examining the technical, economic, legal, and political implications of its adoption – including challenges posed by nations taking unilateral action. Many of the essays in this multi-authored book a...

  4. Changing heathlands in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ransijn, Johannes

    Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures are rising and precipitation regimes are changing at global scale. How ecosystem will be affected by global climatic change is dependent on the responses of plants and plant communities. This thesis focuses on how climate change affects heathland...... plant communities. Many heathlands have shifted from dwarf shrub dominance to grass dominance and climatic change might affect the competitive balance between dwarf shrubs and grasses. We looked at heathland vegetation dynamics and heathland plant responses to climatic change at different spatial...... between C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in the same climate change experiment and 5) a study where we compared the responses of shrubland plant communities to experimental warming and recurrent experimental droughts in seven climate change experiments across Europe. Heathland vegetation dynamics are slow...

  5. Anthropogenic Climate Change and Allergic Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hueiwang Anna Jeng

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to have an impact on various aspects of health, including mucosal areas involved in allergic inflammatory disorders that include asthma, allergic rhinitis, allergic conjunctivitis and anaphylaxis. The evidence that links climate change to the exacerbation and the development of allergic disease is increasing and appears to be linked to changes in pollen seasons (duration, onset and intensity and changes in allergen content of plants and their pollen as it relates to increased sensitization, allergenicity and exacerbations of allergic airway disease. This has significant implications for air quality and for the global food supply.

  6. Evidence of maternal effects on temperature preference in side-blotched lizards: implications for evolutionary response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paranjpe, Dhanashree A; Bastiaans, Elizabeth; Patten, Amy; Cooper, Robert D; Sinervo, Barry

    2013-07-01

    Natural populations respond to selection pressures like increasing local temperatures in many ways, including plasticity and adaptation. To predict the response of ectotherms like lizards to local temperature increase, it is essential to estimate phenotypic variation in and determine the heritability of temperature-related traits like average field body temperature (T b) and preferred temperature (T p). We measured T p of Uta stansburiana in a laboratory thermal gradient and assessed the contribution of sex, reproductive status and throat color genotype to phenotypic variation in T b of adult lizards. Females had higher T p than males. However, they temporarily preferred lower temperature when gravid than when nongravid. Using a nested half-sib design for genetic crosses in the laboratory, we estimated relative contributions of additive genetic variation and maternal effects to T p of hatchlings. Our results show that maternal effects, but not additive genetic variation, influence T p of hatchlings in U. stansburiana. Maternal T p and the presence or absence of blue throat color alleles significantly influenced T p of hatchlings. We discuss ecological and evolutionary consequences of these maternal effects in the context of rapid climate change and natural selection that we measure on progeny survival to maturity as a function of maternal T p. PMID:23919144

  7. Poleward expansion of the white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus under climate change: implications for the spread of lyme disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilie Roy-Dufresne

    Full Text Available The white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus is an important reservoir host for Borrelia burgdorferi, the pathogen responsible for Lyme disease, and its distribution is expanding northward. We used an Ecological Niche Factor Analysis to identify the climatic factors associated with the distribution shift of the white-footed mouse over the last 30 years at the northern edge of its range, and modeled its current and potential future (2050 distributions using the platform BIOMOD. A mild and shorter winter is favouring the northern expansion of the white-footed mouse in Québec. With more favorable winter conditions projected by 2050, the distribution range of the white-footed mouse is expected to expand further northward by 3° latitude. We also show that today in southern Québec, the occurrence of B. burgdorferi is associated with high probability of presence of the white-footed mouse. Changes in the distribution of the white-footed mouse will likely alter the geographical range of B. burgdorferi and impact the public health in northern regions that have yet to be exposed to Lyme disease.

  8. Plagioclase sub-species in Chinese loess deposits: Implications for dust source migration and past climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Tong; Liu, Lianwen; Chen, Yang; Sheng, Xuefen; Ji, Junfeng

    2016-01-01

    Plagioclase mineral sub-species in the Lingtai Section in central Chinese Loess Plateau are examined using Mineral Liberation Analyzer techniques, showing that loess and paleosol samples exhibit similar patterns in terms of plagioclase feldspar sub-species content. This suggests that both loess and paleosol units have preserved their primary Ca-bearing plagioclase compositions of loess source regions. Weighted average CaO (%) in Ca-bearing plagioclase lies within a narrow range and is equivalent to the average plagioclase composition for upper continental crust. This fact supports the hypothesis that Chinese loess deposits are the result of a thorough mixing of dust sources. The sum of Ca-bearing plagioclase content exhibits a general increasing trend superimposed by glacial-interglacial oscillations. In combination with observed plagioclase data in the deserts, the variations of Ca-bearing plagioclase minerals might be used as a proxy for dust source migration and climate changes in the loess source regions. Furthermore, linear relationship between lithogenic magnetic susceptibility (MS) component input and contents of Ca-bearing plagioclase in loess units revises a MS proxy for reconstructing paleo-monsoon precipitation history. The revised MS and plagioclase sub-species records help in understanding the mechanism of glaciation across northern Tibetan Plateau.

  9. Adaptation : climate change briefing paper

    OpenAIRE

    Acclimatise

    2009-01-01

    Climate change adaptation means recognising what is happening to our climate on a global and local scale, and developing strategies to manage the risks that this presents is crucial to the growth, development and continuing success of any organisation.

  10. Climate Change and Poverty Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Simon

    2011-08-15

    Climate change will make it increasingly difficult to achieve and sustain development goals. This is largely because climate effects on poverty remain poorly understood, and poverty reduction strategies do not adequately support climate resilience. Ensuring effective development in the face of climate change requires action on six fronts: investing in a stronger climate and poverty evidence base; applying the learning about development effectiveness to how we address adaptation needs; supporting nationally derived, integrated policies and programmes; including the climate-vulnerable poor in developing strategies; and identifying how mitigation strategies can also reduce poverty and enable adaptation.

  11. Application of Ecosystem Models to Assess Environmental Drivers of Mosquito Abundance and Virus Transmission Risk and Associated Public Health Implications of Climate and Land Use Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melton, F.; Barker, C.; Park, B.; Reisen, W.; Michaelis, A.; Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Milesi, C.; Hiatt, S.; Nemani, R.

    2008-12-01

    The NASA Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) is a modeling framework that integrates satellite observations, meteorological observations, and ancillary data to support monitoring and modeling of ecosystem and land surface conditions in near real-time. TOPS provides spatially continuous gridded estimates of a suite of measurements describing environmental conditions, and these data products are currently being applied to support the development of new models capable of forecasting estimated mosquito abundance and transmission risk for mosquito-borne diseases such as West Nile virus. We present results from the modeling analyses, describe their incorporation into the California Vectorborne Disease Surveillance System, and describe possible implications of projected climate and land use change for patterns in mosquito abundance and transmission risk for West Nile virus in California.

  12. Agro-ecosystem and socio-economic role of homegarden agroforestry in Jabithenan District, North-Western Ethiopia: implication for climate change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linger, Ewuketu

    2014-01-01

    Homegarden agroforestry is believed to be more diverse and provide multiple services for household than other monocropping system and this is due to the combination of crops, trees and livestock. The aim of this study was to assess socio-economic and agro-ecological role of homegardens in Jabithenan district, North-western Ethiopia. Two sites purposively and two villages randomly from each site were selected. Totally 96 households; in which 48 from homegarden agroforestry user and 48 from non-tree based garden user were selected for this study. Socio-economic data and potential economic and agro-ecosystem role of homegarden agroforestry over non-tree based garden were collected by using semi-structured and structured questionnaires to the households. Homegarden agroforestry significantly (P homegarden agroforestry practice provides good socio-economical and agro-ecological service for farmers which have a higher implication for climate change adaptation than non-tree based garden. PMID:24790810

  13. Climate changes and biodiversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As some people forecast an average temperature increase between 1 and 3.5 degrees by the end of the century, with higher increases under high latitudes (it could reach 8 degrees in some regions of Canada), other changes will occur: precipitations, sea level rise, reductions in polar ice, extreme climatic events, glacier melting, and so on. The author discusses how these changes will impact biodiversity as they will threat habitat and living conditions of many species. Some studies assess a loss of 15 to 37 per cent of biodiversity by 2050. Moreover, physiology is influenced by temperature: for some species, higher temperatures favour the development of female embryos, or the increase of their population, or may result in an evolution of their reproduction strategy. Life rhythm will also change, for plants as well as for animals. Species will keep on changing their distribution area, but some others will not be able to and are therefore threatened. Finally, as the evolutions concern their vectors, some diseases will spread in new regions

  14. Climate change, wine, and conservation

    OpenAIRE

    Hannah, L.; Roehrdanz, PR; Ikegami, M; Shepard, AV; Shaw; Tabor, G; Zhi, L; Marquet, PA; Hijmans, RJ

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticul...

  15. Climate change and catchment hydrology

    OpenAIRE

    Murphy, Conor

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to alter catchment hydrology through changes in extremes of flooding and drought. River catchments are complex, dynamic systems and it is important to develop our understanding of how these systems are likely to respond to changes in climate. Work is ongoing in using EC-Earth simulations to further our understanding of how climate change will affect catchment hydrology and flood risk. In Ireland, the importance of this task is emphasised ...

  16. Climate change convention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Principles that guide Canada's Green Plan with respect to global warming are outlined. These include respect for nature, meeting environmental goals in an economically beneficial manner, efficient use of resources, shared responsibilities, federal leadership, and informed decision making. The policy side of the international Framework Convention on Climate Change is then discussed and related to the Green Plan. The Convention has been signed by 154 nations and has the long-term objective of stabilizing anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at levels that prevent dangerous interference with the climate system. Some of the Convention's commitments toward achieving that objective are only applicable to the developed countries. Five general areas of commitment are emissions reductions, assistance to developing countries, reporting requirements, scientific and socioeconomic research, and education. The most controversial area is that of limiting emissions. The Convention has strong measures for public accountability and is open to future revisions. Canada's Green Plan represents one country's response to the Convention commitments, including a national goal to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at the 1990 level by the year 2000

  17. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.M. CORNEA

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change impacts on water resources – The most recent scientific assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC [6] concludes that, since the late 19th century, anthropogenic induced emissions of greenhouse gases have contributed to an increase in global surface temperatures of about 0.3 to 0.6o C. Based on the IPCC’s scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols a further increase of 2o C is expected by the year 2100. Plants, animals, natural and managed ecosystems, and human settlements are susceptible to variations in the storage, fluxes, and quality of water and sensitive to climate change. From urban and agricultural water supplies to flood management and aquatic ecosystem protection, global warming is affecting all aspects of water resource management. Rising temperatures, loss of snowpack, escalating size and frequency of flood events, and rising sea levels are just some of the impacts of climate change that have broad implications for the management of water resources. With robust scientific evidence showing that human-induced climate change is occurring, it is critical to understand how water quantity and quality might be affected. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the environmental risks caused by climate anomalies on water resources, to examine the negative impacts of a greenhouse warming on the supply and demand for water and the resulting socio-economic implications.

  18. Global climate change -- taking action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Commitment of the Canadian Mining Association (MAC), on behalf of its member companies, to play a global leadership role in eco-efficiency and environmental stewardship and participate fully in Canada's efforts to reduce emissions that contribute to climate change, are outlined. The principles underlying the MAC's commitment include: prudent action to reduce GHG emissions; the greatest possible efficiency in using energy; use of best practices and technologies; support for the development of balanced climate change policies; cooperation with all stakeholders in achieving the maximum feasible reduction in GHG emissions; support for research and analysis of the social, economic and environmental implications of GHG reduction strategies; and active support for a balanced and effective public outreach and education program. A brief review of how the mining sector has already made giant strides in cutting energy consumption and in reducing carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per unit of output during the past decade is supplemented by summaries of GHG reduction success stories from member companies such as Cominco, Teck Corporation, Falconbridge and Syncrude Canada Limited

  19. Potential global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global economic integration and growth contribute much to the construction of energy plants, vehicles and other industrial products that produces carbon emission and in effect cause the destruction of the environment. A coordinated policy and response worldwide to curb emissions and to effect global climate change must be introduced. Improvement in scientific understanding is required to monitor how much emission reduction is necessary. In the near term, especially in the next seven years, sustained research and development for low carbon or carbon-free energy is necessary. Other measures must also be introduced, such as limiting the use of vehicles, closing down inefficient power plants, etc. In the long term, the use of the electric car, use solar energy, etc. is required. Reforestation must also be considered to absorb large amounts of carbon in the atmosphere

  20. Competitiveness and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The author addresses the relationship between competitiveness and climate policy beyond the issue of emission quota trading, and with taking into account links between different activities. For some sectors, demand may depend on measures undertaken to reduce emissions in the transport and building sectors. According to the author, these interactions could transform the industry on a middle term, more than the required technical changes aimed at the reduction of emissions. After a detailed analysis on these issues, this paper discusses the results of several studies dealing with the relationship between environmental regulation and competitiveness, and with global assessments of carbon leakages. Then, the author discusses the European directive which introduces the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS)

  1. Indications of climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The earth's annual mean global temperature increased by around 0,6 C during the 20 century, with wide regional differences. Even if solar activity has played some part in the mean temperature rise and some greenhouse gases are present naturally in the atmosphere, enhancing of the greenhouse effect due to the human activities is responsible for a large and increasing part of the observed warming. The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change confirms the future increase under all scenarios. Depending on the efforts made by mankind to limit greenhouse gases emissions, the global mean temperature in 2100 could be between 1,4 and 5,8 C higher than in 2000. (A.L.B.)

  2. Geopolitics of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change has become an international policy topic. Its stakes go beyond the simple ecological question to encompass the overall global equilibrium, and in particular the North-South relations. This book, with solid references and illustrated with a tenth of color maps, examines the geopolitical dimension of global warming. Who are the countries responsible or considered to be so? Who are those who will be the most impacted? What population migrations have already started or have to be foreseen? What are the international security risks? The author presents also the different international cooperation mechanisms already implemented and takes stock of the present day situation of negotiations. We are entering into the critical phase, and probably into the potentially dramatic phase as well. This book allows to understand its key aspects and driving forces

  3. Climate change and marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Anthony J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Brander, Keith;

    2012-01-01

    A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change...... ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC......) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change...

  4. Economic analysis of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Vojtíšek, Petr

    2012-01-01

    The bachelor thesis themed “Economic Analysis of Climate Change” focuses on the climate change from an economical point of view. The theoretical part sums up the basic facts about climate change, go through the most important social, environmental and economic impacts, main opinions about the climate change and also the main ideas of the mitigation and adaptation processes. The analyses tries to give the climate a monetary value with a use of non-market method to find out how much would be st...

  5. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

    OpenAIRE

    Thornton, Philip K.; Polly J Ericksen; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J.

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food syst...

  6. Philosophy of climate science part I: observing climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Frigg, Roman; Thompson, Erica; Werndl, Charlotte

    2015-01-01

    This is the first of three parts of an introduction to the philosophy of climate science. In this first part about observing climate change, the topics of definitions of climate and climate change, data sets and data models, detection of climate change, and attribution of climate change will be discussed.

  7. Fisheries: climate change impacts and adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The report entitled Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation : A Canadian Perspective, presents a summary of research regarding the impacts of climate change on key sectors over the past five years as it relates to Canada. This chapter on fisheries focuses on the impact of climate change on Canada's marine and freshwater fisheries, and the role of adaptation in reducing the vulnerability of the sector. Canadian fisheries encompass the Atlantic, Pacific and Arctic oceans as well as freshwater systems. Fish health, productivity and distribution is strongly influenced by climatic factors such as air and water temperature, precipitation and wind. Most fish species have a distinct set of environmental conditions for optimal growth and survival. If the conditions change in response to changing climate, the fish may be affected. Some of the impacts include reduced growth, increased competition, a shift in species distribution, greater susceptibility to disease, and altered ecosystem function. Studies show that in some areas, fisheries may already be experiencing the effect of climate change. Recommendations were suggested on how to deal with the impacts associated with climate change in sensitive environments. It was noted that actions taken in the fisheries sector will have implications for the water resources, transportation, tourism and human health sectors. 103 refs., 2 tabs., 6 figs

  8. Climate change policy position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) is a firm believer in the need to take action to mitigate the risks associated with climate change, and that clear government policy is called for. The principles of sustainable development must guide this policy development effort. The initiatives required to address greenhouse gas emissions over both the short and long term must be carefully considered, and it is up to industries to ensure their production efficiency and emission intensity. Promoting improved performance of industries in Canada and developing technology that can be deployed internationally for larger global effects represents Canada's best contribution to progress on greenhouse gas emissions. The increase in energy demand along with increases in population and economic growth have contributed to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions despite improved energy efficiency in industry. Significant damage to the economy will result if Canada is to meet its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol, forcing the country to buy large quantities of foreign credits instead of using those funds for increased research and development. CAPP indicated that an effective plan must be: balanced, equitable, responsible, competitive, focused on technology and innovation, and based on agreements on sectoral plans. Each of these principles were discussed, followed by the fundamentals of approach for upstream oil and gas. The framework for climate change policy was described as well as the elements of a sector plan. CAPP wants to work with all levels of government on an appropriate plan for Canada, that considers our unique circumstances. Canada can play a significant role on the international stage by properly implementing the policy position proposed by the CAPP without unnecessary risks to the economy. refs

  9. A review of scientifc linkages and interactions between climate change and air quality, with implications for air quality management in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tirusha Thambiran

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In recent years there has been considerable advancement in our scientifc understanding of the linkages and interactions between climate change and air quality. A warmer, evolving climate is likely to have severe consequences for air quality due to impacts on pollution sources and meteorology. Climate-induced changes to sources of tropospheric ozone precursor gases and to atmospheric circulation are likely to lead to changes in both the concentration and dispersion of near-surface ozone that could act to offset improvements in air quality. The control of air pollutants through air quality management is also likely to impact on climate change, with reductions in ozone, particulate matter and sulphur dioxide being of particular interest. The improved understanding of the relationship between air quality and climate change provides a scientific basis for policy interventions. After a review of the scientific linkages, the potential to include climate change considerations in air quality management planning processes in South Africa was examined.

  10. Climate change and the Great Barrier Reef

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Full text: Climate change is now recognised as the greatest long-term threat to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Managers face a future in which the impacts of climate change on tropical marine ecosystems are becoming increasingly frequent and severe. Further degradation is inevitable as the climate continues to change but the extent of the decline will depend on the rate and magnitude of climate change and the resilience of the ecosystem. Changes to the ecosystem have implications for the industries and regional communities that depend on the GBR. Climate projections for the GBR region include increasing air and sea temperatures, ocean acidification, nutrient enrichment (via changes in rainfall), altered light levels, more extreme weather events, changes to ocean circulation and sea level rise. Impacts have already been observed, with severe coral bleaching events in 1998 and 2002, and mass mortalities of seabirds linked to anomalously warm summer conditions. Climate change also poses significant threats to the industries and communities that depend on the GBR ecosystem, both directly and indirectly through loss of natural resources; industries such as recreational and commercial fishing, and tourism, which contributes to a regional tourism industry worth $6.1 billion (Access Economics 2005). A vulnerability assessment undertaken by leading experts in climate and marine science identified climate sensitivities for GBR species, habitats, key processes, GBR industries and communities (Johnson and Marshall 2007). This information has been used to develop a Climate Change Action Plan for the GBR. The Action Plan is a five-year program aimed at facilitating targeted science, building a resilient ecosystem, assisting adaptation of industries and communities, and reducing climate footprints. The Action Plan identifies strategies to review current management arrangements and raise awareness of the issue in order to work towards a resilient ecosystem. Integral to

  11. Preparing for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holdgate, M

    1989-01-01

    There is a distinct probability that humankind is changing the climate and at the same time raising the sea level of the world. The most plausible projections we have now suggest a rise in mean world temperature of between 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2030--just 40 years hence. This is a bigger change in a smaller period than we know of in the experience of the earth's ecosystems and human societies. It implies that by 2030 the earth will be warmer than at any time in the past 120,000 years. In the same period, we are likely to see a rise of 15-30 centimeters in sea level, partly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and partly to the expansion of the warmer seas. This may not seem much--but it comes on top of the 12-centimeter rise in the past century and we should recall that over 1/2 the world's population lives in zones on or near coasts. A quarter meter rise in sea level could have drastic consequences for countries like the Maldives or the Netherlands, where much of the land lies below the 2-meter contour. The cause of climate change is known as the 'greenhouse effect'. Greenhouse glass has the property that it is transparent to radiation coming in from the sun, but holds back radiation to space from the warmed surfaces inside the greenhouse. Certain gases affect the atmosphere in the same way. There are 5 'greenhouse gases' and we have been roofing ourselves with them all: carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25% above preindustrial levels and are likely to double within a century, due to tropical forest clearance and especially to the burning of increasing quantities of coal and other fossil fuels; methane concentrations are now twice their preindustrial levels as a result of releases from agriculture; nitrous oxide has increased due to land clearance for agriculture, use of fertilizers, and fossil fuel combustion; ozone levels near the earth's surface have increased due mainly to pollution from motor vehicles; and

  12. Climate Change Mitigation A Balanced Approach to Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a fresh and innovative perspective on climate change policy. By emphasizing the multiple facets of climate policy, from mitigation to adaptation, from technological innovation and diffusion to governance issues, it contains a comprehensive overview of the economic and policy dimensions of the climate problem. The keyword of the book is balance. The book clarifies that climate change cannot be controlled by sacrificing economic growth and many other urgent global issues. At the same time, action to control climate change cannot be delayed, even though gradually implemented. Therefore, on the one hand climate policy becomes pervasive and affects all dimensions of international policy. On the other hand, climate policy cannot be too ambitious: a balanced approach between mitigation and adaptation, between economic growth and resource management, between short term development efforts and long term innovation investments, should be adopted. I recommend its reading. Carlo Carraro, President, Ca�...

  13. Changes in air quality and tropospheric composition due to depletion of stratospheric ozone and interactions with changing climate: implications for human and environmental health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madronich, S; Shao, M; Wilson, S R; Solomon, K R; Longstreth, J D; Tang, X Y

    2015-01-01

    UV radiation is an essential driver for the formation of photochemical smog, which includes ground-level ozone and particulate matter (PM). Recent analyses support earlier work showing that poor outdoor air quality is a major environmental hazard as well as quantifying health effects on regional and global scales more accurately. Greater exposure to these pollutants has been linked to increased risks of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in humans and is associated globally with several million premature deaths per year. Ozone also has adverse effects on yields of crops, leading to loss of billions of US dollars each year. These detrimental effects also may alter biological diversity and affect the function of natural ecosystems. Future air quality will depend mostly on changes in emission of pollutants and their precursors, but changes in UV radiation and climate will contribute as well. Significant reductions in emissions, mainly from the energy and transportation sectors, have already led to improved air quality in many locations. Air quality will continue to improve in those cities/states that can afford controls, and worsen where the regulatory infrastructure is not available. Future changes in UV radiation and climate will alter the rates of formation of ground-level ozone and photochemically-generated particulate matter and must be considered in predictions of air quality. The decrease in UV radiation associated with recovery of stratospheric ozone will, according to recent global atmospheric model simulations, lead to increases in ground-level ozone at most locations. If correct, this will add significantly to future ground-level ozone trends. However, the spatial resolution of these global models is insufficient to inform policy at this time, especially for urban areas. UV radiation affects the atmospheric concentration of hydroxyl radicals, ˙OH, which are responsible for the self-cleaning of the atmosphere. Recent measurements confirm that, on a

  14. A review of scientifc linkages and interactions between climate change and air quality, with implications for air quality management in South Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Tirusha Thambiran; Roseanne D. Diab

    2010-01-01

    In recent years there has been considerable advancement in our scientifc understanding of the linkages and interactions between climate change and air quality. A warmer, evolving climate is likely to have severe consequences for air quality due to impacts on pollution sources and meteorology. Climate-induced changes to sources of tropospheric ozone precursor gases and to atmospheric circulation are likely to lead to changes in both the concentration and dispersion of near-surface ozone that c...

  15. Conflict in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carleton, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, M.

    2016-05-01

    A growing body of research illuminates the role that changes in climate have had on violent conflict and social instability in the recent past. Across a diversity of contexts, high temperatures and irregular rainfall have been causally linked to a range of conflict outcomes. These findings can be paired with climate model output to generate projections of the impact future climate change may have on conflicts such as crime and civil war. However, there are large degrees of uncertainty in such projections, arising from (i) the statistical uncertainty involved in regression analysis, (ii) divergent climate model predictions, and (iii) the unknown ability of human societies to adapt to future climate change. In this article, we review the empirical evidence of the climate-conflict relationship, provide insight into the likely extent and feasibility of adaptation to climate change as it pertains to human conflict, and discuss new methods that can be used to provide projections that capture these three sources of uncertainty.

  16. Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in the South-East Atlantic: Knowledge Gaps, Planned Observations to Address Them, and Implications for Global Climate Change Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redemann, Jens; Wood, R.; Zuidema, P.; Haywood, J.; Luna, B.; Abel, S.

    2015-01-01

    Southern Africa produces almost a third of the Earth's biomass burning (BB) aerosol particles, yet the fate of these particles and their influence on regional and global climate is poorly understood. Particles lofted into the mid-troposphere are transported westward over the South-East (SE) Atlantic, home to one of the three permanent subtropical Stratocumulus (Sc) cloud decks in the world. The stratocumulus "climate radiators" are critical to the regional and global climate system. They interact with dense layers of BB aerosols that initially overlay the cloud deck, but later subside and are mixed into the clouds. These interactions include adjustments to aerosol-induced solar heating and microphysical effects. As emphasized in the latest IPCC report, the global representation of these aerosol-cloud interaction processes in climate models is one of the largest uncertainty in estimates of future climate. Hence, new observations over the SE Atlantic have significant implications for global climate change scenarios. We discuss the current knowledge of aerosol and cloud property distributions based on satellite observations and sparse suborbital sampling, and describe planned field campaigns in the region. Specifically, we describe the scientific objectives and implementation of the following four synergistic, international research activities aimed at providing a process-level understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions over the SE Atlantic: 1) ORACLES (Observations of Aerosols above Clouds and their interactions), a five-year investigation between 2015 and 2019 with three Intensive Observation Periods (IOP), recently funded by the NASA Earth-Venture Suborbital Program, 2) CLARIFY-2016 (Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation Interactions and Forcing: Year 2016), a comprehensive observational and modeling programme funded by the UK's Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), and supported by the UK Met Office. 3) LASIC (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds), a funded

  17. Urban Growth and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Kahn, Matthew E.

    2008-01-01

    Between 1950 and 2030, the share of the world's population that lives in cities is predicted to grow from 30% to 60%. This urbanization has consequences for the likelihood of climate change and for the social costs that climate change will impose on the world's quality of life. This paper examines how urbanization affects greenhouse gas production, and it studies how urbanites in the developed and developing world will adapt to the challenges posed by climate change.

  18. Global warming and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A panel discussion was held to discuss climate change. Six panelists made presentations that summarized ozone depletion and climate change, discussed global responses, argued against the conventional scientific and policy dogmas concerning climate change, examined the effects of ultraviolet radiation on phytoplankton, examined the effects of carbon taxes on Canadian industry and its emissions, and examined the political and strategic aspects of global warming. A question session followed the presentations. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the six presentations

  19. Integrating components of the earth system to model global climate changes: implications for the simulation of the climate of the next million years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The climate system is complex because it is made up of several components (atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, continental surface, ice sheets), each of which has its own response time. The paleo-climate record provides ample evidence that these components interact nonlinearly with each other and also with global biogeochemical cycles, which drive greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere. Forecasting the evolution of future climate is therefore an extremely complex problem. In addition, since the nineteenth century, human activities are releasing great quantities of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, CFC, etc.) into the atmosphere. As a consequence, the atmospheric content of these gases has tremendously increased. As they have a strong greenhouse effect, their concentration is now large enough to perturb the natural evolution of the earth's climate. In this paper, we shall review the strategy which has been used to develop and validate tools that would allow to simulate the future long-term behaviour of the Earth's climate. This strategy rests on two complementary approaches: developing numerical models of the climate system and validating them by comparing their output with present-day meteorological data and paleo-climatic reconstructions. We shall then evaluate the methods available to simulate climate at the regional scale and the major uncertainties that must be solved to reasonable estimate the long-term evolution of a region, which would receive a geological repository for nuclear wastes. (author)

  20. The cross-country implications of alternative climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Because of worldwide growing concerns about global climate change, great interest has been expressed in the potential of alternative climate policies to reduce global carbon emissions. In this paper, we compare cross-country implications of alternative climate policies, including unilateral and multilateral climate policies. Our main findings are as follows. Firstly, there are large differences in cross-country effects of alternative unilateral climate policies, when the same given carbon emission reductions are achieved in each abating country respectively. Meanwhile, cross-border externalities undermine efficiency of unilateral climate policies. Secondly, there are significant differences in cross-country implications of alternative multilateral climate policies, when the same global emission reductions are allocated in several different ways among abating countries. Thirdly, it is difficult to reach a stable global climate treaty, since any abating country has the incentive to argue for small carbon emission reductions. Finally, multilateral climate policies can reduce the negative impacts of cross-border externalities, but cannot cure all cross-border externalities. Looking ahead, it will be a great policy challenge for the world to reduce carbon emissions in a cost-effective way. - highlights: • We compare impacts of unilateral climate policies across countries. • We compare effects of alternative multilateral climate policies. • We explore whether cross-border externalities disappear under multilateral climate policies

  1. Cinematic climate change, a promising perspective on climate change communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakellari, Maria

    2015-10-01

    Previous research findings display that after having seen popular climate change films, people became more concerned, more motivated and more aware of climate change, but changes in behaviors were short-term. This article performs a meta-analysis of three popular climate change films, The Day after Tomorrow (2005), An Inconvenient Truth (2006), and The Age of Stupid (2009), drawing on research in social psychology, human agency, and media effect theory in order to formulate a rationale about how mass media communication shapes our everyday life experience. This article highlights the factors with which science blends in the reception of the three climate change films and expands the range of options considered in order to encourage people to engage in climate change mitigation actions. PMID:24916195

  2. Integrating Climate Change into Great Lakes Protection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedman, S.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change is now recognized as one of the greatest threats to the Great Lakes. Projected climate change impacts to the Great Lakes include increases in surface water and air temperature; decreases in ice cover; shorter winters, early spring, and longer summers; increased frequency of intense storms; more precipitation falling as rain in the winter; less snowfall; and variations in water levels, among other effects. Changing climate conditions may compromise efforts to protect and restore the Great Lakes ecosystem and may lead to irrevocable impacts on the physical, chemical, and biological integrity of the Great Lakes. Examples of such potential impacts include the transformation of coastal wetlands into terrestrial ecosystems; reduced fisheries; increased beach erosion; change in forest species composition as species migrate northward; potential increase in toxic substance concentrations; potential increases in the frequency and extent of algal blooms; degraded water quality; and a potential increase in invasive species. The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative, signed into law by President Obama in 2010, represents the commitment of the federal government to protect, restore, and maintain the Great Lakes ecosystem. The GLRI Action Plan, issued in February 2010, identifies five focus areas: - Toxic Substances and Areas of Concern - Invasive Species - Nearshore Health and Nonpoint Source Pollution - Habitat and Wildlife Protection and Restoration - Accountability, Education, Monitoring, Evaluation, Communication, and Partnerships The Action Plan recognizes that the projected impacts of climate change on the Great Lakes have implications across all focus areas and encourages incorporation of climate change considerations into GLRI projects and programs as appropriate. Under the GLRI, EPA has funded climate change-related work by states, tribes, federal agencies, academics and NGOs through competitive grants, state and tribal capacity grants, and Interagency

  3. Implications for climate change policy of trends in exports and imports of energy commodities and manufactured goods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A number of formal and informal policy processes are underway to explore the issue of 'where to next' for the international climate change regime post-2012. Currently these are informed by data based mainly on production statistics only. A key purpose of this study and report is to raise issues associated with trade in energy commodities and manufactured goods, in order to ensure that important perspectives which can be discerned from considering this 'consumption side' are not overlooked. A number of previous studies and papers have explored issues regarding embodied greenhouse gas emissions in traded energy commodities and manufactured goods. This study draws out key messages from these. It also expands on the existing literature by covering some non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions, and also by considering traded renewables-based commodities. This work is not intended to be a comprehensive resource of quantitative data. Rather, examples of data are selected to help articulate and elaborate key issues. Section 2 describes the nature of the data sets that have been researched and utilised in developing any quantitative results. It outlines some relevant limitations of the methodologies underlying these data sets, and the nature of uncertainties. It also describes the methodology used in this work to unpack and/or re-present data. Section 3 provides data and analysis addressing the key objective noted above, i.e. to identify 'significant instances where transferred benefits and avoided costs occur - and the extent to which the exporter is likely to be compensated in the absence of policies intended for this purpose'. Section 4 draws out some of the key policy-relevant 'messages' and issues from this data. It uses a number of example cases to help do this, in a manner that is intended to be thought provoking, but not judgemental or prejudicial. Appendix A lists the existing literature that has informed this report. Appendix B reproduces a paper written on a subject that

  4. Climate change - a natural hazard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kininmonth, William

    2003-07-01

    The impacts of weather and climate extremes (floods, storms, drought, etc) have historically set back development and will continue to do so into the future, especially in developing countries. It is essential to understand how future climate change will be manifest as weather and climate extremes in order to implement policies of sustainable development. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate that natural processes have caused the climate to change and it is unlikely that human influences will dominate the natural processes. Any suggestion that implementation of the Kyoto Protocol will avoid future infrastructure damage, environmental degradation and loss of life from weather and climate extremes is a grand delusion. (Author)

  5. An Econometric Analysis of U.S. Crop Yield and Cropland Acreage: Implications for the Impact of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Huang, Haixiao; Khanna, Madhu

    2010-01-01

    A SIGNIFICANTLY REVISED/UPDATED AND EDITED VERSION OF THIS PAPER WAS PUBLISHED AS: Citation: Miao, Ruiqing, Madhu Khanna and Haixiao Huang. “Responsiveness of Crop Yield and Acreage to Prices and Climate.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics (2015) doi: 10.1093/ajae/aav025 Abstract: We investigate the effect of crop price and climate variables on rainfed corn and soybean yields and acreage in the United States using a large panel dataset for the 1977–2007 period. Instrumental variables...

  6. Conservation policies and planning under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strange, Niels; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Bladt, Jesper Stentoft;

    2011-01-01

    conservation prioritization problem where climate change gradually changes the future habitat suitability of a site’ current species. This has implications for survival probability, as well as for species that potentially immigrate to the site. The problem is explored using a set of heuristics for both of two......Biodiversity conservation policies focus on securing the survival of species and habitats according to their current distribution. This basic premise may be inappropriate for halting biodiversity decline under the dynamic changes caused by climate change. This study explores a dynamic spatial...... networks. Climate change induced shifts in the suitability of habitats for species may increase the value of such adaptive strategies, the benefit decreasing with increasing migration probabilities and species distribution dynamics....

  7. Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate

  8. Climate Change, farm level adaption measures and Impacts on Crop productivity and market participation: Implications for sustainable synergy between African and European Agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Olarinde, Luke O.; Adepoju, Adebusola A.; Jabaru, Muritala O.

    2014-01-01

    It is widely known that climate change and agriculture are interrelated process, both of which take place on a global scale. In effect, crop and animal farming, fisheries, forestry, with the resultant access to food and fibre in many continents and regions of the world are projected to be severely compromised by climate variability and change. Several strategies aimed at reducing climate variability induced hazards abound. These include cultural and conventional food and farming systems to cl...

  9. Climate Change, Sea-Level Rise and Implications for Coastal and Estuarine Shoreline Management with Particular Reference to the Ecology of Intertidal Benthic Macrofauna in NW Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujii, Toyonobu

    2012-01-01

    In many European estuaries, extensive areas of intertidal habitats consist of bare mudflats and sandflats that harbour a very high abundance and biomass of macrobenthic invertebrates. The high stocks of macrobenthos in turn provide important food sources for the higher trophic levels such as fish and shorebirds. Climate change and associated sea-level rise will have potential to cause changes in coastal and estuarine physical properties in a number of ways and thereby influence the ecology of estuarine dependent organisms. Although the mechanisms involved in biological responses resulting from such environmental changes are complex, the ecological effects are likely to be significant for the estuarine benthic macrofauna and hence the consumers they support. This paper reviews the utilisation patterns of estuarine intertidal habitats by shorebirds, fish and crustaceans, as well as factors affecting the distribution, abundance and biomass of estuarine macrobenthos that is known to be important food source for these estuarine predators. This study also provides simple conceptual models of the likely impacts of sea-level rise on the physical and biological elements of estuarine intertidal habitats, and implications of these results are discussed in the context of sustainable long term flood and coastal management in estuarine environments. PMID:24832510

  10. Climate Change, Sea-Level Rise and Implications for Coastal and Estuarine Shoreline Management with Particular Reference to the Ecology of Intertidal Benthic Macrofauna in NW Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toyonobu Fujii

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In many European estuaries, extensive areas of intertidal habitats consist of bare mudflats and sandflats that harbour a very high abundance and biomass of macrobenthic invertebrates. The high stocks of macrobenthos in turn provide important food sources for the higher trophic levels such as fish and shorebirds. Climate change and associated sea-level rise will have potential to cause changes in coastal and estuarine physical properties in a number of ways and thereby influence the ecology of estuarine dependent organisms. Although the mechanisms involved in biological responses resulting from such environmental changes are complex, the ecological effects are likely to be significant for the estuarine benthic macrofauna and hence the consumers they support. This paper reviews the utilisation patterns of estuarine intertidal habitats by shorebirds, fish and crustaceans, as well as factors affecting the distribution, abundance and biomass of estuarine macrobenthos that is known to be important food source for these estuarine predators. This study also provides simple conceptual models of the likely impacts of sea-level rise on the physical and biological elements of estuarine intertidal habitats, and implications of these results are discussed in the context of sustainable long term flood and coastal management in estuarine environments.

  11. Lay representations on climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Cabecinhas, Rosa; Lázaro, Alexandra; Carvalho, Anabela

    2006-01-01

    Lay representations on climate change were mapped via the free-word association method in two pilot studies. Participants were asked to generate words associated to “the big problems faced by humankind nowadays” (1st study) and to “climate change” (2nd study). Climate change was not spontaneously evoked by the participants in the first study: pollution was among the top 10 problems, but references to other environmental issues were very low. In the second study, climate change was consid...

  12. Schneider lecture: From climate change impacts to climate change risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, C. B.

    2014-12-01

    Steve Schneider was a strong proponent of considering the entire range of possible climate-change outcomes. He wrote and spoke frequently about the importance of low probability/high consequence outcomes as well as most likely outcomes. He worked tirelessly on communicating the risks from overlapping stressors. Technical and conceptual issues have made it difficult for Steve's vision to reach maturity in mainstream climate-change research, but the picture is changing rapidly. The concept of climate-change risk, considering both probability and consequence, is central to the recently completed IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and the concept frames much of the discussion about future research agendas. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks is important for five core reasons. First, conceptualizing the issue as being about probabilities builds a bridge between current climate variability and future climate change. Second, a formulation based on risks highlights the fact that climate impacts occur primarily in extremes. For historical variability and future impacts, the real concern is the conditions under which things break and systems fail, namely, in the extremes. Third, framing the challenge as one of managing risks puts a strong emphasis on exploring the full range of possible outcomes, including low-probability, high/consequence outcomes. Fourth, explaining climate change as a problem in managing risks links climate change to a wide range of sophisticated risk management tools and strategies that underpin much of modern society. Fifth, the concept of climate change as a challenge in managing risks helps cement the understanding that climate change is a threat multiplier, adding new dimensions and complexity to existing and emerging problems. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks creates an important but difficult agenda for research. The emphasis needs to shift from most likely outcomes to most risky outcomes, considering the full

  13. How climate changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate variability on time scales of years through centuries seems to be dominated by two kinds of recurring fluctuations, each exhibiting characteristic evolution in time. One is the El Nino/Southern oscillation phenomenon, a tropical ocean/atmosphere autofluctuation that is phase locked to the annual cycle and recurs at 3 or 4 year intervals. The other fluctuation exhibits a recurrence period of about 1 1/3 century and appears to be forced from high latitudes in winter, more strongly from the Arctic than from the Antarctic. This paper is an overview of the morphology and teleconnections associated with this longer period fluctuation. The dynamic forcing is exhibited most strongly as deepening (or shallowing) of the sub-polar surface pressure trough in both the Atlantic and Pacific sectors and some changes in the central pressure of the subtropical highs. This can be visualized as strengthening (or weakening) of the mean winter fields of pressure and wind, reflected by southward displacement and strengthening of the major wind and SST fields over the Atlantic and Pacific. These dynamical relationships are reflected in teleconnections extending from the Arctic far into the southern hemisphere. The range of variability of surface wind strength is 20-30%, (a factor of 2 in wind stress on the ocean) with wind strongest in the 1860s, sudden weakening in the northern hemisphere in the 1870s, continued weakening to a minimum in 1930s, strengthening since then, especially since the 1960s

  14. The International Climate Change Regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamin, Farhana; Depledge, Joanna

    2005-01-01

    Aimed at the increasing number of policy-makers, stakeholders, researchers, and other professionals working on climate change, this volume presents a detailed description and analysis of the international regime established in 1992 to combat the threat of global climate change. It provides a comprehensive accessible guide to a high-profile area of international law and politics, covering not only the obligations and rights of countries, but ongoing climate negotiations as well.

  15. Manufacturers response to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Rattanakit, Rattanachai

    2007-01-01

    There is now clear scientific proof which indicates that emissions from economic activity, particularly the industrial sector, are the main cause of the change in global climatic conditions. The Stern Review describes climate change as the greatest market failure the world has ever seen. UK alone contributes more than 6.5 billion tonnes of the global carbon dioxide emissions every year. This, along with other scientific evidence, has led the UK government to publish Climate ...

  16. Ground water and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Taylor, Richard G; Scanlon, Bridget; Döll, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F P

    2013-01-01

    As the world’s largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the...

  17. Climate variability and change

    CERN Document Server

    Grassl, H

    1998-01-01

    Many factors influence climate. The present knowledge concerning the climate relevance of earth orbital parameters, solar luminosity, volcanoes, internal interactions, and human activities will be reported as well as the vulnerability of emission scenarios for given stabilization goals for greenhouse gas concentrations and the main points of the Kyoto Protocol

  18. Climate and Dengue Transmission: Evidence and Implications

    OpenAIRE

    Morin, Cory W.; Comrie, Andrew C.; Ernst, Kacey

    2013-01-01

    Background: Climate influences dengue ecology by affecting vector dynamics, agent development, and mosquito/human interactions. Although these relationships are known, the impact climate change will have on transmission is unclear. Climate-driven statistical and process-based models are being used to refine our knowledge of these relationships and predict the effects of projected climate change on dengue fever occurrence, but results have been inconsistent. Objective: We sought to identify ma...

  19. Predicting the effects of climate change on trophic status of three morphologically varying lakes: Implications for lake restoration and management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trolle, Dennis; Hamilton, David P.; Pilditch, Conrad A.;

    2011-01-01

    To quantify the effects of a future climate on three morphologically different lakes that varied in trophic status from oligo-mesotrophic to highly eutrophic, we applied the one-dimensional lake ecosystem model DYRESM-CAEDYM to oligo-mesotrophic Lake Okareka, eutrophic Lake Rotoehu, both in the...... regions, were added to the daily baseline temperatures for years 2002-2007. Lake model simulations using this future climate scenario indicate differential increases in eutrophication in all three lakes, especially during summer months. The predicted effects on annual mean surface water concentrations of...... temperate Bay of Plenty region, and highly eutrophic Lake Ellesmere, in the temperate Canterbury region, NewZealand. All three models were calibrated for a three-year period and validated for a separate two-year period. The model simulations generally showed good agreement with observed data for water...

  20. Changes in dissolved organic material determine exposure of stream benthic communities to UV-B radiation and heavy metals: Implications for climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clements, W.H.; Brooks, M.L.; Kashian, D.R.; Zuellig, R.E.

    2008-01-01

    Changes in regional climate in the Rocky Mountains over the next 100 years are expected to have significant effects on biogeochemical cycles and hydrological processes. In particular, decreased discharge and lower stream depth during summer when ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is the highest combined with greater photo-oxidation of dissolved organic materials (DOM) will significantly increase exposure of benthic communities to UVR. Communities in many Rocky Mountain streams are simultaneously exposed to elevated metals from abandoned mines, the toxicity and bioavailability of which are also determined by DOM. We integrated field surveys of 19 streams (21 sites) along a gradient of metal contamination with microcosm and field experiments conducted in Colorado, USA, and New Zealand to investigate the influence of DOM on bioavailability of heavy metals and exposure of benthic communities to UVR. Spatial and seasonal variation in DOM were closely related to stream discharge and significantly influenced heavy metal uptake in benthic organisms. Qualitative and quantitative changes in DOM resulting from exposure to sunlight increased UV-B (290-320nm) penetration and toxicity of heavy metals. Results of microcosm experiments showed that benthic communities from a metal-polluted stream were tolerant of metals, but were more sensitive to UV-B than communities from a reference stream. We speculate that the greater sensitivity of these communities to UV-B resulted from costs associated with metal tolerance. Exclusion of UVR from 12 separate Colorado streams and from outdoor stream microcosms in New Zealand increased the abundance of benthic organisms (mayflies, stoneflies, and caddisflies) by 18% and 54%, respectively. Our findings demonstrate the importance of considering changes in regional climate and UV-B exposure when assessing the effects of local anthropogenic stressors. ?? Journal compilation ?? 2008 Blackwell Publishing.

  1. Survival and growth patterns of white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss) rangewide provenances and their implications for climate change adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Lu, Pengxin; Parker, William H.; Cherry, Marilyn; Colombo, Steve; Parker, William C.; Man, Rongzhou; Roubal, Ngaire

    2014-01-01

    Intraspecific assisted migration (ISAM) through seed transfer during artificial forest regeneration has been suggested as an adaptation strategy to enhance forest resilience and productivity under future climate. In this study, we assessed the risks and benefits of ISAM in white spruce based on long-term and multilocation, rangewide provenance test data. Our results indicate that the adaptive capacity and growth potential of white spruce varied considerably among 245 range-wide provenances sa...

  2. Ground Water and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; MacDonald, Alan; Fan, Ying; Maxwell, Reed M.; Yechieli, Yossi; Gurdak, Jason J.; Allen, Diana M.; Shamsudduha, Mohammad; Hiscock, Kevin; Yeh, Pat J. -F; Holman, Ian; Treidel, Holger

    2013-01-01

    As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

  3. Constructing Legitimacy for Climate Change Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cashmore, Matthew Asa; Wejs, Anja

    2014-01-01

    contexts in terms of, for example, the role of networks external to local government, and the form of mitigation and adaptation activities. The results highlight the importance of what we label cultural-cognitive legitimacy (i.e. that derived from organisational rules and societal norms) in determining......) in relation to the institutionalisation of climate change planning with- in local government may be more complex than has been suggested much of the litera- ture. The predominance of cultural-cognitive over normative legitimacy also has im- portant implications for how discourses on climate change planning...

  4. Nuclear Energy and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Méritet, Sophie; Zaleski, Pierre

    2009-01-01

    The paper will discuss the possibilities of the development of nuclear energy in the world in the midterm and long term. It will correlate the prospects with the emissions of CO2 and the effects on climate change. In particular it will discuss the problems nuclear energy face to make a large contribution of climate change issue.

  5. Congress Assesses Climate Change Paleodata

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bierly, Eugene W.

    2006-08-01

    The `hockey stick' graph of surfacetemperature change overthe past millennium and implicationsfor climate change assessments wasthe subject of two hearings held by the U.S.House of Representatives Energy and CommerceSubcommittee on Oversight andInvestigations, on 19 and 27 July. These hearingsmarked only the second time that thecommittee has discussed climate issuessince George W. Bush became president.

  6. The threat of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Every one knows that the harsh reality of climate change is here. Our water supplies are drying up. More droughts are linked to the climate change. This is the time for the world to take action and if we don't we are heading for an economic and environmental disaster

  7. Energy, climate change and sequestration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There is now very little debate that the earth's climate is changing, and the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence. Many causes have been postulated and speculation about the eventual outcomes abounds. Whatever eventuates, society will have to adapt to a new and changing climate

  8. Teaching about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heffron, Susan Gallagher; Valmond, Kharra

    2011-01-01

    Students are exposed to many different media reports about global climate change. Movies such as "The Day After Tomorrow" and "Ice Age" are examples of instances when movie producers have sought to capture the attention of audiences by augmenting the challenges that climate change poses. Students may receive information from a wide range of media…

  9. Climate change or variable weather

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baron, Nina; Kjerulf Petersen, Lars

    2015-01-01

    understand homeowners’ perception of climate change and local flood risk. Ingold argues that those perceptions are shaped by people’s experiences with and connections to their local landscape. People experience the local variability of the weather, and not global climate change as presented in statistical...

  10. Climate Change, Growth, and Poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Hull, Katy

    2008-01-01

    Equity emerged as the principal theme during the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) week session 'climate change, growth and poverty,' where presenters addressed the distributional consequences of climate change, as well as countries' unequal capacity to cope with the twin challenges of adaptation and mitigation. They highlighted actions to strengthen the global knowledge bas...

  11. Food security under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, Thomas W.

    2016-01-01

    Using food prices to assess climate change impacts on food security is misleading. Differential impacts on income require a broader measure of household well-being, such as changes in absolute poverty.

  12. The global land rush and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Kyle Frankel; Rulli, Maria Cristina; D'Odorico, Paolo

    2015-08-01

    Climate change poses a serious global challenge in the face of rapidly increasing human demand for energy and food. A recent phenomenon in which climate change may play an important role is the acquisition of large tracts of land in the developing world by governments and corporations. In the target countries, where land is relatively inexpensive, the potential to increase crop yields is generally high and property rights are often poorly defined. By acquiring land, investors can realize large profits and countries can substantially alter the land and water resources under their control, thereby changing their outlook for meeting future demand. While the drivers, actors, and impacts involved with land deals have received substantial attention in the literature, we propose that climate change plays an important yet underappreciated role, both through its direct effects on agricultural production and through its influence on mitigative or adaptive policy decisions. Drawing from various literature sources as well as a new global database on reported land deals, we trace the evolution of the global land rush and highlight prominent examples in which the role of climate change is evident. We find that climate change—both historical and anticipated—interacts substantially with drivers of land acquisitions, having important implications for the resilience of communities in targeted areas. As a result of this synthesis, we ultimately contend that considerations of climate change should be integrated into future policy decisions relating to the large-scale land acquisitions.

  13. Business and climate change: Key strategic and policy challenges

    OpenAIRE

    Ans Kolk; Jonatan Pinkse

    2010-01-01

    Many companies, policymakers and other stakeholders see climate change as the most pressing environmental problem of our time. In bailout plans and policies to address the economic recession and credit crisis, climate aspects haves figured prominently as well. This article examines recent policy and economic developments and their relevance for business and climate change, considering the implications of the economic slowdown and bailouts. Dilemmas in the economy-climate-policy nexus in the c...

  14. Global climate change and international security.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karas, Thomas H.

    2003-11-01

    This report originates in a workshop held at Sandia National Laboratories, bringing together a variety of external experts with Sandia personnel to discuss 'The Implications of Global Climate Change for International Security.' Whatever the future of the current global warming trend, paleoclimatic history shows that climate change happens, sometimes abruptly. These changes can severely impact human water supplies, agriculture, migration patterns, infrastructure, financial flows, disease prevalence, and economic activity. Those impacts, in turn, can lead to national or international security problems stemming from aggravation of internal conflicts, increased poverty and inequality, exacerbation of existing international conflicts, diversion of national and international resources from international security programs (military or non-military), contribution to global economic decline or collapse, or international realignments based on climate change mitigation policies. After reviewing these potential problems, the report concludes with a brief listing of some research, technology, and policy measures that might mitigate them.

  15. Malaria ecology and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCord, G. C.

    2016-05-01

    Understanding the costs that climate change will exact on society is crucial to devising an appropriate policy response. One of the channels through while climate change will affect human society is through vector-borne diseases whose epidemiology is conditioned by ambient ecology. This paper introduces the literature on malaria, its cost on society, and the consequences of climate change to the physics community in hopes of inspiring synergistic research in the area of climate change and health. It then demonstrates the use of one ecological indicator of malaria suitability to provide an order-of-magnitude assessment of how climate change might affect the malaria burden. The average of Global Circulation Model end-of-century predictions implies a 47% average increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease in today's malarious areas, significantly complicating malaria elimination efforts.

  16. A General Equilibrium Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tourism

    OpenAIRE

    BIGANO, Andrea; Berrittella, Maria; Roson, Roberto; Richard S.J. Tol

    2004-01-01

    This paper studies the economic implications of climate-change-induced variations in tourism demand, using a world CGE model. The model is first re-calibrated at some future years, obtaining hypothetical benchmark equilibria, which are subsequently perturbed by shocks, simulating the effects of climate change. We portray the impact of climate change on tourism by means of two sets of shocks, occurring simultaneously. The first shocks translate predicted variations in tourist flows into change...

  17. Climate change and marine vertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sydeman, William J; Poloczanska, Elvira; Reed, Thomas E; Thompson, Sarah Ann

    2015-11-13

    Climate change impacts on vertebrates have consequences for marine ecosystem structures and services. We review marine fish, mammal, turtle, and seabird responses to climate change and discuss their potential for adaptation. Direct and indirect responses are demonstrated from every ocean. Because of variation in research foci, observed responses differ among taxonomic groups (redistributions for fish, phenology for seabirds). Mechanisms of change are (i) direct physiological responses and (ii) climate-mediated predator-prey interactions. Regional-scale variation in climate-demographic functions makes range-wide population dynamics challenging to predict. The nexus of metabolism relative to ecosystem productivity and food webs appears key to predicting future effects on marine vertebrates. Integration of climate, oceanographic, ecosystem, and population models that incorporate evolutionary processes is needed to prioritize the climate-related conservation needs for these species. PMID:26564847

  18. Climate variability and change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    When Australia's climate should not be definite barrier to the population reaching 30 million by 2050, it is recognised that our climate has limited the development of the nation over the past 200 years. Indeed in 1911, based on a comparison of the climate and development between the US and Australia. Griffith Taylor predicted that Australia's population would be 19 million at the end of the 20th century, which is a pretty good 90-year forecast. The climate constraint is not only due to much of the country being semi-arid with an annual rainfall below 400 millimetres, but also due to the large year-to-year variability of rainfall across the country

  19. Climate change experiments in Hamburg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubasch, U. [DKRZ, Hamburg (Germany)

    1995-12-31

    Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the simulations with present day conditions (1980-1990) is too late, because then a considerable part of the warming since the beginning of the industrialization (ca. 1750) has been neglected. Furthermore it has only recently become clear that the sulphat-aerosols play an important role in the present day climate and in the future climate. The effect of the sulphat aerosols has first been simulated in a number of equilibrium simulations with mixed layer models, but nowadays with globally coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models

  20. Global climate change and California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the fall of 1988 the University of California organized a new public-service initiative on global climate change in response to inquiries and requests from members of Congress and the Department of Energy (DOE). This new systemwide initiative involved all of the University of California campuses and the University's three national laboratories at Berkeley, Los Alamos, and Livermore. The goal of this Greenhouse Initiative was to focus the multidisciplinary resources of the UC campuses and the team-oriented research capabilities of the laboratories on the prospect of global warming and its associated effects on the planet and its nations. In consultation with the DOE, the organizers proposed a series of workshops to focus University of California research resources on the issue of global warming, to contribute to the congressionally mandated DOE studies on options for the US to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 20% by the year 2000, and to begin building a long-term research base contributing to an improved understanding of global change in all of its complexity and diverse discipline implications. This volume contains papers from the first of these workshops. Individual papers are processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  1. Implications of Climate Change on the Heat Budget of Lentic Systems Used for Power Station Cooling: Case Study Clinton Lake, Illinois.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quijano, Juan C; Jackson, P Ryan; Santacruz, Santiago; Morales, Viviana M; García, Marcelo H

    2016-01-01

    We use a numerical model to analyze the impact of climate change-in particular higher air temperatures-on a nuclear power station that recirculates the water from a reservoir for cooling. The model solves the hydrodynamics, the transfer of heat in the reservoir, and the energy balance at the surface. We use the numerical model to (i) quantify the heat budget in the reservoir and determine how this budget is affected by the combined effect of the power station and climate change and (ii) quantify the impact of climate change on both the downstream thermal pollution and the power station capacity. We consider four different scenarios of climate change. Results of simulations show that climate change will reduce the ability to dissipate heat to the atmosphere and therefore the cooling capacity of the reservoir. We observed an increase of 25% in the thermal load downstream of the reservoir, and a reduction in the capacity of the power station of 18% during the summer months for the worst-case climate change scenario tested. These results suggest that climate change is an important threat for both the downstream thermal pollution and the generation of electricity by power stations that use lentic systems for cooling. PMID:26556581

  2. Implications of climate change on the heat budget of lentic systems used for power station cooling: Case study Clinton Lake, Illinois

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quijano, Juan C; Jackson, P. Ryan; Santacruz, Santiago; Morales, Viviana M; Garcia, Marcelo H.

    2016-01-01

    We use a numerical model to analyze the impact of climate change--in particular higher air temperatures--on a nuclear power station that recirculates the water from a reservoir for cooling. The model solves the hydrodynamics, the transfer of heat in the reservoir, and the energy balance at the surface. We use the numerical model to (i) quantify the heat budget in the reservoir and determine how this budget is affected by the combined effect of the power station and climate change and (ii) quantify the impact of climate change on both the downstream thermal pollution and the power station capacity. We consider four different scenarios of climate change. Results of simulations show that climate change will reduce the ability to dissipate heat to the atmosphere and therefore the cooling capacity of the reservoir. We observed an increase of 25% in the thermal load downstream of the reservoir, and a reduction in the capacity of the power station of 18% during the summer months for the worst-case climate change scenario tested. These results suggest that climate change is an important threat for both the downstream thermal pollution and the generation of electricity by power stations that use lentic systems for cooling.

  3. Climate change with Korea as the center

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book deals with climate change with Korea as the center, which is divided into ten chapters. It explain climate change by human life. The contents of this book are climate change, climate before human period, great ice age of prehistoric period, prehistoric times of last glacial era, climate change in historical era, change during observation time for 100 years, warming period, global environment period, the cause of climate change and climate and human. It has reference and an index.

  4. Climate change and air pollution

    OpenAIRE

    D’Amato, Gennaro; Bergmann, Karl Christian; Cecchi, Lorenzo; Annesi-Maesano, Isabella; Sanduzzi, Alessandro; Liccardi, Gennaro; Vitale, Carolina; Stanziola, Anna; D’Amato, Maria

    2014-01-01

    Summary The observational evidence indicates that recent regional changes in climate, particularly temperature increases, have already affected a diverse set of physical and biological systems in many parts of the world. Allergens patterns are also changing in response to climate change and air pollution can modify the allergenic potential of pollen grains especially in the presence of specific weather conditions. Although genetic factors are important in the development of asthma and allergi...

  5. Climate change and avian influenza

    OpenAIRE

    Gilbert, Marius; Slingenbergh, Jan; Xiao, Xiangming

    2008-01-01

    This paper discusses impacts of climate change on the ecology of avian influenza viruses (AI viruses), which presumably co-evolved with migratory water birds, with virus also persisting outside the host in subarctic water bodies. Climate change would almost certainly alter bird migration, influence the AI virus transmission cycle and directly affect virus survival outside the host. The joint, net effects of these changes are rather unpredictable, but it is likely that AI virus circulation in ...

  6. Climate change and future scenarios

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ač, Alexander; Krupková, Lenka; Marek, Michal V.

    Volume 1. 1. Brno: Global Change Research Centre, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, v. v. i, 2015 - (Urban, O.; Klem, K.), s. 8-24 ISBN 978-80-87902-14-1 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : climate change * global climate change * ecosystems * tipping points * adaptation * mitigation * complexity Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology

  7. Regional climate change and national responsibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko

    2016-03-01

    Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the ‘bell curve’ defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.

  8. Climate Change - Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Katherine; Steffen, Will; Schellnhuber, Hans J.;

    negotiations is the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2007. The IPCC report has already been instrumental in increasing both public and political awareness of the societal risks associated with unchecked emission of greenhouse gases. Since the...... effective control measures, an understanding of how human activities are changing the climate, and of the implications of unchecked climate change, needs to be widespread among world and national leaders, as well as in the public. The purpose of this report is to provide, for a broad range of audiences, an......, many of whom have also been contributors to the IPCC reports. Participants came from nearly 80 different countries and contributed with more than 1400 scientific presentations. Abstracts for all of the scientific presentations made can be found at www.iop.org/EJ/volume/1755-1315/6 , and a transcript of...

  9. Acclimation of tree function and structure to climate change and implications to forest carbon and nutrient balances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hari, P.; Nissinen, A.; Berninger, F. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Forest Ecology] [and others

    1996-12-31

    Before large-scale anthropogenetic emissions the environmental factors have been rather stable for thousands of years, varying yearly, seasonally and daily in rather regular manners around some mean values. In this century the emissions of CO{sub 2}, sulphur and nitrogen from society to atmosphere are changing both atmospheric and soil environment at rates not experienced before. The fluxes to soil affect the contents of plant available nutrients and solubility of toxic compounds in the forest soil. Additionally, the chemical state of soil environment is coupled to tree growth, litter production and nutrient uptake as well as to the activity of biological organisms in soil, which decompose litter and release nutrients from it. Trees have developed effective regulation systems to cope with the environment during the evolution. The resulting acclimations improve the functioning of the trees if the environmental factors remain within their range of variation during the evolution. Outside the range the results of the regulation are unpredictable. The acclimative changes caused by the action of the regulation system may considerably change the response of trees to present environmental change. The analysis of the effects of present environmental change on forests requires simultaneous treatment of the atmosphere, forest soils and trees. Each of these components is dominated by its own features. The analyze of material and energy fluxes connect them to each other. The aim of this research is to analyse changes in the forest soils and reactions of trees to changes in the atmosphere and forest soils under a common theoretical framework, enabling combination of the obtained results into a holistic analysis of the response of forests to the present environmental change

  10. Risk communication on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For the title study use has been made of available scientific literature, results of new surveys and interviews. In the first part of the study attention is paid to the exchange of information between parties involved in climate change and differences in supply and demand of information. In the second part citizens' views on climate change, problems with communication on climate change, and the resulting consequences and options for communication are dealt with. In this second part also barriers to action that are related or influenced by communication are taken into consideration

  11. Climatic change; Le Changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perthuis, Ch. de [Universite de Paris-Dauphine, 75 - Paris (France); Caisse des depots, Mission climat, 75 - Paris (France); Delbosc, A. [Caisse des depots, Mission climat, 75 - Paris (France)

    2009-07-01

    Received ideas about climatic change are a mixture of right and wrong information. The authors use these ideas as starting points to shade light on what we really know and what we believe to know. The book is divided in three main chapters: should we act in front of climatic change? How can we efficiently act? How can we equitably act? For each chapter a series of received ideas is analyzed in order to find those which can usefully contribute to mitigate the environmental, economical and social impacts of climatic change. (J.S.)

  12. Inhalation anaesthetics and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mads Peter Sulbæk; Sander, S P; Nielsen, O J;

    2010-01-01

    Although the increasing abundance of CO(2) in our atmosphere is the main driver of the observed climate change, it is the cumulative effect of all forcing agents that dictate the direction and magnitude of the change, and many smaller contributors are also at play. Isoflurane, desflurane, and...... sevoflurane are widely used inhalation anaesthetics. Emissions of these compounds contribute to radiative forcing of climate change. To quantitatively assess the impact of the anaesthetics on the forcing of climate, detailed information on their properties of heat (infrared, IR) absorption and atmospheric...

  13. Arctic adaptation and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The amplification of climatic warming in the Arctic and the sensitivity of physical, biological, and human systems to changes in climate make the Arctic particularly vulnerable to climate changes. Large areas of the Arctic permafrost and sea ice are expected to disappear under climate warming and these changes will have considerable impacts on the natural and built environment of the north. A review is presented of some recent studies on what these impacts could be for the permafrost and sea ice environment and to identify linkages with socioeconomic activities. Terrestrial adaptation to climate change will include increases in ground temperature; melting of permafrost with consequences such as frost heave, mudslides, and substantial settlement; rotting of peat contained in permafrost areas, with subsequent emission of CO2; increased risk of forest fire; and flooding of low-lying areas. With regard to the manmade environment, structures that will be affected include buildings, pipelines, highways, airports, mines, and railways. In marine areas, climate change will increase the ice-free period for marine transport operations and thus provide some benefit to the offshore petroleum industry. This benefit will be offset by increased wave height and period, and increased coastal erosion. The offshore industry needs to be particularly concerned with these impacts since the expected design life of industry facilities (30-60 y) is of the same order as the time frame for possible climatic changes. 18 refs., 5 figs

  14. Challenges of climate change. Which climate governance?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report deals with the main challenges of climate change, and attempts to answer some questions: what is the temperature increase foreseen by scientific experts? Who will be affected by the consequences of climate change? Are there technologies to reduce emissions? If yes, why are they not diffused? Is it justified to ask developing countries to do something? Are concurrence distortions a real problem? Which are the main sectors where emissions are to be reduced? Are tools developed at the international level efficient? What is the present assessment for the clean development mechanism? What can be thought of technological partnerships developed with the United States? Then, the report comments the present status of international discussions, proposes a brief assessment of the Kyoto protocol ten years after its implementation, and proposes some improvement pathways

  15. Climatic Change, Irrigation Water Crisis and Food Security in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Asif, Muhammad

    2013-01-01

    This study describes the effects of climate change on food security in agricultural dependent country,Pakistan. Based on secondary sources of data, the study found out the evidences of climate change and itssevere implications on already inadequate and depleted natural resources of the country. The major effectsof climate change are in terms of rise in temperature, variations in precipitation pattern, increasing glaciermelt,and increasing evaporation and increased irrigation water requirement...

  16. Climate Change and Health – What’s the Problem?

    OpenAIRE

    Anstey, Matthew Harry Richards

    2013-01-01

    The scientific consensus is that global warming is occurring and is largely the result of greenhouse gas emissions from human activity. This paper examines the health implications of global warming, the current socio-political attitudes towards action on climate change and highlight the health co-benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, policy development for climate change and health should embrace health systems strengthening, commencing by incorporating climate change ta...

  17. Climate change and health – what’s the problem?

    OpenAIRE

    Anstey, Matthew HR

    2013-01-01

    The scientific consensus is that global warming is occurring and is largely the result of greenhouse gas emissions from human activity. This paper examines the health implications of global warming, the current socio-political attitudes towards action on climate change and highlight the health co-benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, policy development for climate change and health should embrace health systems strengthening, commencing by incorporating climate change ta...

  18. Ground water and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    As the world’s largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food secu¬rity will probably intensify under climate chan...

  19. Deliberating Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agger, Annika; Jelsøe, Erling; Jæger, Birgit;

    to include the voice of the citizens into complex scientific and technological issues. The purpose of WWV was to pass on the opinions of ordinary citizens to political decision-makers at The United Nations Climate Summit, COP15, in Copenhagen in December 2009. The authors made a study of the Danish WWV event...

  20. Climate change and water resources in Britain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper explores the potential implications of climate change for the use and management of water resources in Britain. It is based on a review of simulations of changes in river flows, groundwater recharge and river water quality. These simulations imply, under feasible climate change scenarios, that annual, winter and summer runoff will decrease in southern Britain, groundwater recharge will be reduced and that water quality - as characterised by nitrate concentrations and dissolved oxygen contents - will deteriorate. In northern Britain, river flows are likely to increase throughout the year, particularly in winter. Climate change may lead to increased demands for water, over and above that increase which is forecast for non-climatic reasons, primarily due to increased use for garden watering. These increased pressures on the water resource base will impact not only upon the reliability of water supplies, but also upon navigation, aquatic ecosystems, recreation and power generation, and will have implications for water management. Flood risk is likely to increase, implying a reduction in standards of flood protection. The paper discusses adaptation options. 39 refs., 5 figs