WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate change impact

  1. Climate change - the impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This special dossier about the impacts of climate change is made of 6 contributions dealing with: the mitigation of climate effects and how to deal with them (Bertrand Reysset); how to dare and transmit (Laurent Billes-Garabedian); littoral risks, the Pas-de-Calais example (Julien Henique); extreme meteorological events and health impacts (Mathilde Pascal, Philippe Pirard, Yvon Motreff); Biodiversity and climate: the janus of global change (Robert Barbault, Jacques Weber); adapting agriculture to dryness and temperatures (Philippe Gate); Paris and the future heats of the year 2100 (Jean-Luc Salagnac, Julien Desplat, Raphaelle Kounkou-Arnaud)

  2. Economic impacts of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Tol, Richard S.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change will probably have a limited impact on the economy and human welfare in the 21st century. The initial impacts of climate change may well be positive. In the long run, the negative impacts dominate the positive ones. Negative impacts will be substantially greater in poorer, hotter, and lower-lying countries. Poverty reduction complements greenhouse gas emissions reduction as a means to reduce climate change impacts. Climate change may affect the growth rate of the economy and ma...

  3. Assessing Climate Change Impacts: Agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Bosello, Francesco; Zhang, Jian

    2005-01-01

    The economy-wide implications of climate change on agricultural sectors in 2050 are estimated using a static computable general equilibrium model. Peculiar to this exercise is the coupling of the economic model with a climatic model forecasting temperature increase in the relevant year and with a crop-growth model estimating climate change impact on cereal productivity. The main results of the study point out on the one hand the limited influence of climate change on world food supply and wel...

  4. Climatic change and impacts: a general introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    These proceedings are divided into six parts containing 29 technical papers. 1. An Overview of the Climatic System, 2. Past climate Changes, 3. Climate Processes and Climate Modelling, 4. Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change, 5. Climatic Impacts, 6. STUDENTS' PAPERS

  5. Climate change impacts and adaptations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn

    2015-01-01

    inseparability of the development and climate agendas, and the rate of assimilation of climate and development information in key institutions. They are drawn from the Development Under Climate Change (DUCC) project carried out by UNU-WIDER of which the countries of the Greater Zambeze Valley formed a part......In this article, we assert that developing countries are much better prepared to undertake negotiations at the Conference of the Parties in Paris (CoP21) as compared to CoP15 in Copenhagen. An important element of this is the accumulation of knowledge with respect to the implications of climate...... change and the ongoing internalization thereof by key institutions in developing countries. The articles in this special issue set forth a set of technical contributions to this improved understanding. We also summarize five major lessons related to uncertainty, extreme events, timing of impacts, the...

  6. Schneider lecture: From climate change impacts to climate change risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, C. B.

    2014-12-01

    Steve Schneider was a strong proponent of considering the entire range of possible climate-change outcomes. He wrote and spoke frequently about the importance of low probability/high consequence outcomes as well as most likely outcomes. He worked tirelessly on communicating the risks from overlapping stressors. Technical and conceptual issues have made it difficult for Steve's vision to reach maturity in mainstream climate-change research, but the picture is changing rapidly. The concept of climate-change risk, considering both probability and consequence, is central to the recently completed IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and the concept frames much of the discussion about future research agendas. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks is important for five core reasons. First, conceptualizing the issue as being about probabilities builds a bridge between current climate variability and future climate change. Second, a formulation based on risks highlights the fact that climate impacts occur primarily in extremes. For historical variability and future impacts, the real concern is the conditions under which things break and systems fail, namely, in the extremes. Third, framing the challenge as one of managing risks puts a strong emphasis on exploring the full range of possible outcomes, including low-probability, high/consequence outcomes. Fourth, explaining climate change as a problem in managing risks links climate change to a wide range of sophisticated risk management tools and strategies that underpin much of modern society. Fifth, the concept of climate change as a challenge in managing risks helps cement the understanding that climate change is a threat multiplier, adding new dimensions and complexity to existing and emerging problems. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks creates an important but difficult agenda for research. The emphasis needs to shift from most likely outcomes to most risky outcomes, considering the full

  7. Welfare impacts of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hof, Andries F.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change can affect well-being in poor economies more than previously shown if its effect on economic growth, and not only on current production, is considered. But this result does not necessarily suggest greater mitigation efforts are required.

  8. The Economic Impact of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    TOL, Richard S.J.

    2008-01-01

    I review the literature on the economic impacts of climate change, an externality that is unprecedentedly large, complex, and uncertain. Only 14 estimates of the total damage cost of climate change have been published, a research effort that is in sharp contrast to the urgency of the public debate and the proposed expenditure on greenhouse gas emission reduction. These estimates show that climate change initially improves economic welfare. However, these benefits are sunk. Impacts would be pr...

  9. Environmental impact of climate change in pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change results in the increase or decrease in temperature and rainfall. These have significant impact on environment - impinge agricultural crop yields, affect human health, cause changes to forests and other ecosystems, and even impact our energy supply. Climate change is a global phenomenon and its impact can be observed on Pakistan's economy and environment. This paper contains details concerning the climate change and environmental impacts. It takes into account current and projected key vulnerabilities, prospects for adaptation, and the relationships between climate change mitigation and environment. The purpose of the study is to devise national policies and incentive systems combined with national level capacity-building programs to encourage demand-oriented conservation technologies. Recommendations are also made to abate the climate change related issues in country. (author)

  10. Impacts of Climate Change on Brazilian Agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Assad, Eduardo; Pinto, Hilton S.; Nassar, Andre; Harfuch, Leila; Freitas, Saulo; Farinelli, Barbara; Lundell, Mark; Erick C.M. Fernandes

    2013-01-01

    This report evaluates the requirements for an assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture to guide policy makers on investment priorities and phasing. Because agriculture is vital for national food security and is a strong contributor to Brazil's GDP growth, there is growing concern that Brazilian agriculture is increasingly vulnerable to climate variability and change. To meet nat...

  11. The Poverty Impacts of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Skoufias, Emmanuel; Rabassa, Mariano; Olivieri, Sergio; Brahmbhatt, Milan

    2011-01-01

    Over the last century, the world has seen a sustained decline in the proportion of people living in poverty. However, there is an increasing concern that climate change could slow or possibly even reverse poverty reduction progress. Given the complexities involved in analyzing climate change impacts on poverty, different approaches can be helpful; this note surveys the results of recent re...

  12. Distributional Aspects of Climate Change Impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper gives a brief review about the state of knowledge on the distributional aspects of climate change impacts. The paper is largely limited to the distribution of impacts between countries (in Section 2). Although there are virtually no estimates reported in the literature, the distribution of impacts within countries is also important. Impact estimates for different sectors (agriculture, health, sea level rise) provides little guidance for estimating differential impacts within countries. It is even harder to find estimates based on social classes. The paper restricts itself to equity about the consequences of climate change. Equity issues about the consequences of emission reduction are ignored here, but should of course be part of a policy analysis. Equity issues about procedures for decision making are also ignored. The paper is organised as follows. Section 2 reviews recent estimates of the regional impacts of climate change. Section 3 discusses alternative ways of aggregating regional impact estimates. Section 4 focusses on the vulnerability of the poor to climate change impacts, both with respect to exposure as well as to their limited capacity for adaptation. Section 5 discusses the impacts of economic development and other dynamic changes on vulnerability. The paper abstains from a discussion of aggregating climate change impacts over time, partly because the literature on that is too substantial to be reviewed here, and partly because, under virtually all scenarios, the current generation is the poorest and therefore particularly worthy in equity considerations. In Section 6 we present salient conclusions

  13. Fisheries: climate change impacts and adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The report entitled Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation : A Canadian Perspective, presents a summary of research regarding the impacts of climate change on key sectors over the past five years as it relates to Canada. This chapter on fisheries focuses on the impact of climate change on Canada's marine and freshwater fisheries, and the role of adaptation in reducing the vulnerability of the sector. Canadian fisheries encompass the Atlantic, Pacific and Arctic oceans as well as freshwater systems. Fish health, productivity and distribution is strongly influenced by climatic factors such as air and water temperature, precipitation and wind. Most fish species have a distinct set of environmental conditions for optimal growth and survival. If the conditions change in response to changing climate, the fish may be affected. Some of the impacts include reduced growth, increased competition, a shift in species distribution, greater susceptibility to disease, and altered ecosystem function. Studies show that in some areas, fisheries may already be experiencing the effect of climate change. Recommendations were suggested on how to deal with the impacts associated with climate change in sensitive environments. It was noted that actions taken in the fisheries sector will have implications for the water resources, transportation, tourism and human health sectors. 103 refs., 2 tabs., 6 figs

  14. Distributional aspects of climate change impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tol, R.S.J. [Hamburg University (Germany). Centre for Marine and Climate Research; Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (Netherlands). Institute for Environmental Studies; Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA (United States). Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change; Downing, T.E. [Stockholm Environment Institute, Oxford (United Kingdom); Kuik, O.J. [Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (Netherlands). Institute for Environmental Studies; Smith, J.B. [Stratus Consulting Inc., Boulder, CO (United States)

    2004-10-01

    Climate change is likely to impact more severely on the poorer people of the world, because they are more exposed to the weather, because they are closer to the biophysical and experience limits of climate, and because their adaptive capacity is lower. Estimates of aggregated impacts necessarily make assumptions on the relative importance of sectors, countries and periods; we propose to make these assumption explicit. We introduce a Gini coefficient for climate change impacts, which shows the distribution of impacts is very skewed in the near future and will deteriorate for more than a century before becoming more egalitarian. Vulnerability to climate change depends on more than per capita income alone, so that the geographical pattern of vulnerability is complex, and the relationship between vulnerability and development non-linear and non-monotonous. (author)

  15. Climate change impacts: an Ontario perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Significant changes in the climate system which are likely to affect biophysical, social and economic systems in various ways, were discussed. Trends in greenhouse gas levels show that during the 20. century, human activity has changed the make-up of the atmosphere and its greenhouse effect properties. A pilot study on the impacts of climate change identified changes in the water regime such as declines in net basin supply, lake levels and outflows, as important concerns. These changes would have impacts on water quality, wetlands, municipal water supply, hydroelectric power generation, commercial shipping, tourism and recreation, and to a lesser extent, on food productions. Climate impact assessments suggest that world conditions will change significantly as a result. Those with less resources are likely to be most affected by climate change, and the impacts on other regions of the world will be more significant to Ontario than the direct impacts on Ontario itself. In an effort to keep pace with global changes, Ontario will have to limit emissions, conduct research in innovative technology and develop greater awareness of the risk of climate change. refs., tabs., figs

  16. Impacts of climate change in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main conclusion of the study on the title subject is that the impacts of climatic change in the Netherlands are still limited. However, the impacts will be stronger in the next decades and will be even problematic at the end of this century. In this book an overview is given of probable changes in the climate for the Netherlands, danger for flooding in specific areas of the Netherlands, changes of the nature, impacts for agriculture, tourism and recreation, and industry and businesses, and risks for public health

  17. Climate Change Impacts on Czech Agriculture

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Žalud, Z.; Trnka, M.; Hlavinka, P.; Dubrovský, Martin; Svobodová, E.; Semerádová, D.; Bartošová, L.; Balek, J.; Eitzinger, J.; Možný, M.

    Rijeka: InTech, 2011 - (Blanco, J.; Kheradmand, H.), s. 251-278 ISBN 978-953-307-411-5 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300420806 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : climate change * agriculture Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology http://www.intechopen.com/articles/show/title/ climate - change -impacts-on-czech-agriculture

  18. Climate Change Impacts on Czech Agriculture

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Žalud, Zdeněk; Trnka, Miroslav; Hlavinka, Petr; Dubrovský, Martin; Svobodová, Eva; Semerádová, Daniela; Bartošová, Lenka; Balek, J.; Eitzinger, Josef; Možný, M.

    Rijeka: InTech, 2011 - (Blanco, J.; Kheradmand, H.), s. 251-277 ISBN 978-953-307-411-5 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : climate change * agriculture Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour http://www.intechopen.com/articles/show/title/ climate - change -impacts-on-czech-agriculture

  19. Free event: Impacts of climate change research

    OpenAIRE

    Blog Admin, Impact of Social Sciences,

    2012-01-01

    Impacts of Climate Change Research, a free, half-day conference hosted by the LSE’s Public Policy Group/Impact of Social Sciences project and Imperial College London, will be held on Monday, 21st May, at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

  20. Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Hydrological Regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dam, Jan C.

    2003-10-01

    Water is going to be one of the key, if not the most critical, environmental issues in the twenty-first century because of the escalation in socio-economic pressures on the environment in general. Any future climate change or climate variability will only accentuate such pressures. This volume initially follows the perspective of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to infer possible changes in hydrological regimes and water quality based on the outputs from various scenarios of General Circulation Models (GCMs). In subsequent chapters, the possible effects of climate change on the hydrology of each of the continents is examined. The book concludes with an overview of hydrological models for use in the evaluation of the impacts of climate change. It will provide a valuable guide for environmental planners and policy-makers, and will also be of use to all students and researchers interested in the possible effects of climate change.

  1. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.M. CORNEA

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change impacts on water resources – The most recent scientific assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC [6] concludes that, since the late 19th century, anthropogenic induced emissions of greenhouse gases have contributed to an increase in global surface temperatures of about 0.3 to 0.6o C. Based on the IPCC’s scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols a further increase of 2o C is expected by the year 2100. Plants, animals, natural and managed ecosystems, and human settlements are susceptible to variations in the storage, fluxes, and quality of water and sensitive to climate change. From urban and agricultural water supplies to flood management and aquatic ecosystem protection, global warming is affecting all aspects of water resource management. Rising temperatures, loss of snowpack, escalating size and frequency of flood events, and rising sea levels are just some of the impacts of climate change that have broad implications for the management of water resources. With robust scientific evidence showing that human-induced climate change is occurring, it is critical to understand how water quantity and quality might be affected. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the environmental risks caused by climate anomalies on water resources, to examine the negative impacts of a greenhouse warming on the supply and demand for water and the resulting socio-economic implications.

  2. Climate challenge 2012: growth and climate change - Socio-economical impacts of climate change. Conference proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The contributions of this conference session proposed comments and discussion on the relationship between climate change and 'green' growth, on the status of scientific knowledge on climate change (from global to local), on the way to perform carbon print assessment and to decide which actions to implement, on the costs and opportunity of impacts of climate change, on the economy of adaptation, on the benefits and costs of the adaptation policy, and on impacts of climate change on employment in quantitative terms and in terms of profession types

  3. Climate impacts of Australian land cover change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, P. J.

    2004-05-01

    Australian land cover has been dramatically altered since European settlement primarily for agricultural utilization, with native vegetation widely replaced or modified for cropping and intensive animal production. While there have been numerous investigations into the regional and near surface climate impacts of Australian land cover change, these investigation have not included the climate impacts of larger-scale changes in atmospheric circulation and their associated feedbacks, or the impacts of longer-term soil moisture feedbacks. In this research the CSIRO General Circulation Model (GCM) was used to investigate the climate impacts of Australian land cover change, with larger-scale and longer-term feedbacks. To avoid the common problem of overstating the magnitude and spatial extent of changes in land surface conditions prescribed in land cover change experiments, the current Australian land surface properties were described from finer-scale, satellite derived land cover datasets, with land surface conditions extrapolating from remnant native vegetation to pre-clearing extents to recreate the pre-clearing land surface properties. Aggregation rules were applied to the fine-scale data to generate the land surface parameters of the GCM, ensuring the equivalent sub-grid heterogeneity and land surface biogeophysics were captured in both the current and pre-clearing land surface parameters. The differences in climate simulated in the pre-clearing and current experiments were analyzed for changes in Australian continental and regional climate to assess the modeled climate impacts of Australian land cover change. The changes in modeled climate were compared to observed changes in Australian precipitation over the last 50 and 100 years to assess whether modeled results could be detected in the historical record. The differences in climate simulation also were analyzed at the global scale to assess the impacts of local changes on larger scale circulation and climate at

  4. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower

    OpenAIRE

    Aanund Killingtveit; Byman Hamududu

    2012-01-01

    Currently, hydropower accounts for close to 16% of the world’s total power supply and is the world’s most dominant (86%) source of renewable electrical energy. The key resource for hydropower generation is runoff, which is dependent on precipitation. The future global climate is uncertain and thus poses some risk for the hydropower generation sector. The crucial question and challenge then is what will be the impact of climate change on global hydropower generation and what are the resulting ...

  5. Impact of Climate Change on Riverbank Erosion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Most. Nazneen Aktar

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Bangladesh is one of the most climate vulnerable countries in the world. This country is highly vulnerable to climate change because of a number of hydro-geological and socio-economic factors such as geographical location, topography, extreme climate variability, high population density, poverty incidence and dependency of agriculture on climate. Presently this country has been experiencing different hydro-meteorological disastrous events that have never been experienced before. Along with other natural disasters, floods are expected to be impacted by climate change in the future. Since floods are always associated with riverbank erosion, it is essential to assess the impact of climate change on bank erosion. Riverbank erosion is also a serious hazard that directly or indirectly causes the suffering of millions of people. Beyond that, most of the old cities and important infrastructures in this country are situated on riverbanks since once upon a time waterway transportation was the main mode of travel. Moreover, people like to reside near rivers because of their dependency on river water for irrigation purposes. So a major part of the total population of this country lives near riverbanks, which frequently makes them victims of riverbank erosion. The major rivers, the Jamuna, the Ganges and the Padma, annually erode thousand hectares of floodplain land and damage or destroy infrastructures. Consequently, this natural disaster has become a major social hazard. This study aims to find out the relationship between floods and bank erosion; and hence the impact of climate changes on riverbank erosion. Since there is no record on riverbank erosion, this study attempts to measure it with the help of satellite images. It has been found in this study that climate change will play a significant role in riverbank erosion. On an average, the riverbank erosion along the major three rivers will be increased by 13% by 2050 and it will be increased by 18% by

  6. Climate Change Impacts on Turkish Vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forrest, Matthew; Dönmez, Cenk; Çilek, Ahmet; Akif Erdogan, Mehmet; Buontempo, Carlo; Hickler, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    The Mediterranean has been identified as a potentially vulnerable hotspot under climate change. In Turkey, climate change projections consistently predict large temperature rises over the 21st century. With 9% of GDP and 25% of employment coming from agriculture, climate change has the potential to significantly affect both the Turkish economy and living standards. Relatively little work has been undertaken to estimate the effects and risks of climate change in Turkey, and many European studies cover do not include the whole of Turkey in their domain and so are of limited use for policy-makers. The Dynamic Global Vegetation Model LPJ-GUESS was parametrised to represent Turkish vegetation. Climate forcings were derived by interpolating meteorological data from over 600 stations from 1975-2010 to a 1km resolution. Soil depth and soil texture data from field measurements were also interpolated to a 1km grid. The model was benchmarked against vegetation type and remotely sensed biomass and tree cover data. Future climate conditions were calculated using the outputs from a set of regional model simulations. In particular the HadRM3P regional climate model was used to downscale five members of a perturbed physics ensemble of global climate projections obtained using HadCM3 general circulation model and the SRES A1B scenario. A delta change factor approach was then used in conjunction with the observed climate data to assess the impact on vegetation structure and ecological processes to the year 2100 using LPJ-GUESS. The resulting changes to productivity, vegetation structure and hydrology are discussed. Eventually these results will be combined with complementary studies concerning wildfire and erosion to produce a risk map for informing policy-makers.

  7. Impact of climate change and agriculture adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The author outlines and discusses the various impacts climate change can have on agriculture, notably due to the increase of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, to temperature increase, to the modification of rainfalls, and therefore to differences in evaporation, drainage, run-off, cloud cover. He notably discusses the impact in terms of photosynthesis, of crop production in tempered or tropical regions. He also discusses the impact of extreme events (notably frost), comments how recent evolutions noticed by farmers could prefigure the future. He addresses the issue of adaptation which could mean a change of local practices or a displacement of activities

  8. The impacts of climate change in Aquitaine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article presents a book which addresses the impacts of climate change in the Aquitaine region by 2030-2050 in order to prepare the adaptation of the main economic sectors. Several fields are addressed: agriculture and wine-growing, forestry, estuaries, coasts and sea resources. The book examines two aspects of climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions: mitigation and adaptation. Two scenarios are studied: a global temperature increase of 2 degrees, and a global temperature increase between 4 and 5 degrees. As examples of this study, this article gives an overview of these issues of mitigation and adaptation in four domains: forests, wine-growing, air quality, and health

  9. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES

    OpenAIRE

    T.M. CORNEA; Dima, M.; Roca, D.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources – The most recent scientific assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [6] concludes that, since the late 19th century, anthropogenic induced emissions of greenhouse gases have contributed to an increase in global surface temperatures of about 0.3 to 0.6o C. Based on the IPCC’s scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols a further increase of 2o C is expected by the year 2100. Plants, animals, natural and managed ...

  10. Climatic impact of aircraft induced ozone changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sausen, R.; Feneberg, B.; Ponater, M. [Deutsche Forschungs- und Versuchsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere

    1997-12-31

    The effect of aircraft induced ozone changes on the global climate is studied by means of the general circulation model ECHAM4. The zonal mean temperature signal is considered. In order to estimate the statistical significance of the climatic impact a multivariate statistical test hierarchy combined with the fingerprint method has been applied. Sensitivity experiments show a significant coherent temperature response pattern in the northern extra-tropics for mid-latitude summer conditions. It consists of a tropospheric warming of about 0.2 K with a corresponding stratospheric cooling of the same magnitude. (author) 16 refs.

  11. Impact of climate change on building structures

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Drdácký, Miloš

    Bari : EDIPUGLIA, 2010 - (Lefebre, R.; Sabbioni, C.), s. 139-153 ISBN 978-88-7228-601-2 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA103/09/2067 Grant ostatní: evropská komise(XE) 6th FP EC CHEF -044251 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20710524 Keywords : climate change impact * weathering * vulnerability of buildings Subject RIV: AL - Art, Architecture, Cultural Heritage

  12. Potential Impacts of Climate Change in Kenya

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), climate change is attributed directly or indirectly to human activities that alter the composition of the global atmosphere. It is a phenomenon that is still inadequately understood by the general public. Planners, policy makers and even within institutions of learning, but one which is bound to affect our environment and development activities. There is therefore need for information dissemination, systematic research, policy formulation, and development of strategies for managing climate change. The book is divided into five parts, Part I presents basic information on climate change; Part II looks at climatic change and natural resources; Part III discusses implications of climate change; Part IV presents ethical issues related to climatic change; and Part V deals with responses to climate change

  13. Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doney, Scott C.; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Emmett Duffy, J.; Barry, James P.; Chan, Francis; English, Chad A.; Galindo, Heather M.; Grebmeier, Jacqueline M.; Hollowed, Anne B.; Knowlton, Nancy; Polovina, Jeffrey; Rabalais, Nancy N.; Sydeman, William J.; Talley, Lynne D.

    2012-01-01

    In marine ecosystems, rising atmospheric CO2 and climate change are associated with concurrent shifts in temperature, circulation, stratification, nutrient input, oxygen content, and ocean acidification, with potentially wide-ranging biological effects. Population-level shifts are occurring because of physiological intolerance to new environments, altered dispersal patterns, and changes in species interactions. Together with local climate-driven invasion and extinction, these processes result in altered community structure and diversity, including possible emergence of novel ecosystems. Impacts are particularly striking for the poles and the tropics, because of the sensitivity of polar ecosystems to sea-ice retreat and poleward species migrations as well as the sensitivity of coral-algal symbiosis to minor increases in temperature. Midlatitude upwelling systems, like the California Current, exhibit strong linkages between climate and species distributions, phenology, and demography. Aggregated effects may modify energy and material flows as well as biogeochemical cycles, eventually impacting the overall ecosystem functioning and services upon which people and societies depend.

  14. Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Meyer, R.; Anderson, M.; Bromirski, P. D.

    2014-12-01

    This paper summarizes lessons learned from an ongoing series of climate change assessments for California, conducted by the scientific community and State and local agencies. A series of three Assessments have considered vulnerability and adaptation issues for both managed and natural systems. California's vulnerability is many faceted, arising because of an exceptionally drought prone climate, open coast and large estuary exposure to sea level rise, sensitive ecosystems and complex human footprint and economy. Key elements of the assessments have been a common set of climate and sea-level rise scenarios, based upon IPCC GCM simulations. Regionalized and localized output from GCM projections was provided to research teams investigating water supply, agriculture, coastal resources, ecosystem services, forestry, public health, and energy demand and hydropower generation. The assessment results are helping to investigate the broad range of uncertainty that is inherent in climate projections, and users are becoming better equipped to process an envelope of potential climate and impacts. Some projections suggest that without changes in California's present fresh-water delivery system, serious water shortages would take place, but that technical solutions are possible. Under a warmer climate, wildfire vulnerability is heightened markedly in some areas--estimated increases in burned area by the end of the 21st Century exceed 100% of the historical area burned in much of the forested areas of Northern California Along California coast and estuaries, projected rise in mean sea level will accelerate flooding occurrences, prompting the need for better education and preparedness. Many policymakers and agency personnel in California are factoring in results from the assessments and recognize the need for a sustained assessment process. An ongoing challenge, of course, is to achieve more engagement with a broader community of decision makers, and notably with the private sector.

  15. The Impact of Climate Change on Tourism in Spain

    OpenAIRE

    Hein, Lars

    2007-01-01

    The tourism sector will be particularly affected by climate change, but there have been few studies specifying the impacts of climate change on tourism for a certain country. This paper considers the impacts of climate change on tourism in Spain. Tourism is a key economic sector in Spain, and it is strongly weather dependent. The paper analyses how the suitability of the Spanish climate for tourism will change, and how this will affect tourism flows to Spain. The suitability of the climate fo...

  16. What's happening out there? (Climatic change impacts)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article briefly comments on some stumbling-blocks to climatic change modelling accuracy - in assessments of the greenhouse effect, 25% (missing link) of atmospheric carbon dioxide absorption is still unaccounted for; 1989 World Bank estimates of the Amazon rain forest deforestation rate have since proven to be inaccurate; there are difficulties in assessing the movement of the earth's crust relative to variations in sea level; and different studies vary in results relative to global temperature measurement and trend assessment. The need for an assessment of the economic impacts of increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide is also pointed out

  17. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kanchan Joshi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has materialized as the leading global environmental concern. Agriculture is one of the zones most critically distressed by climate alteration. As global temperature rises and climate conditions become more erratic posing threat to the vegetation, biodiversity, biological progression and have enduring effect on food security as well as human health. The present review emphasizes multiple consequences of climate change on agricultural productivity.

  18. Australian climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Full text: The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability made the following conclusions about Australia (Hennessy et al., 2007): Regional climate change has occurred. Since 1950, there has been 0.70C warming, with more heat waves, fewer frosts, more rain in north-west Australia, less rain in southern and eastern Australia, an increase in the intensity of Australian droughts and a rise in sea level of about 70 mm. Australia is already experiencing impacts from recent climate change. These are now evident in increasing stresses on water supply and agriculture, changed natural ecosystems, and reduced seasonal snow cover. Some adaptation has already occurred in response to observed climate change. Examples come from sectors such as water, natural ecosystems, agriculture, horticulture and coasts. However, ongoing vulnerability to extreme events is demonstrated by substantial economic losses caused by droughts, floods, fire, tropical cyclones and hail. The climate of the 21st century is virtually certain to be warmer, with changes in extreme events. Heat waves and fires are virtually certain to increase in intensity and frequency. Floods, landslides, droughts and storm surges are very likely to become more frequent and intense, and snow and frost are very likely to become less frequent. Large areas of mainland Australia are likely to have less soil moisture. Potential impacts of climate change are likely to be substantial without further adaptation; As a result of reduced precipitation and increased evaporation, water security problems are projected to intensify by 2030 in southern and eastern Australia; Ongoing coastal development and population growth, in areas such as Cairns and south-east Queensland, are projected to exacerbate risks from sea level rise and increases in the severity and frequency of storms and coastal flooding by 2050. Significant loss of biodiversity is projected to occur by 2020 in some ecologically rich

  19. Tajikistan - Economic and Distributional Impact of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Heltberg, Rasmus; Reva, Anna; Zaidi, Salman

    2012-01-01

    Tajikistan is highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of global climate change, as it already suffers from low agricultural productivity, water stress, and high losses from disasters. Public awareness of the multiple consequences of climate change is high, with possible impacts on health, natural disasters, and agriculture of greatest public concern. Climate change can potentially deepen ...

  20. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J. [eds.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  1. Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)

  2. Conceptual Model of Climate Change Impacts at LANL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dewart, Jean Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-17

    Goal 9 of the LANL FY15 Site Sustainability Plan (LANL 2014a) addresses Climate Change Adaptation. As part of Goal 9, the plan reviews many of the individual programs the Laboratory has initiated over the past 20 years to address climate change impacts to LANL (e.g. Wildland Fire Management Plan, Forest Management Plan, etc.). However, at that time, LANL did not yet have a comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation. To fill this gap, the FY15 Work Plan for the LANL Long Term Strategy for Environmental Stewardship and Sustainability (LANL 2015) included a goal of (1) establishing a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts at LANL and (2) establishing specific climate change indices to measure climate change and impacts at Los Alamos. Establishing a conceptual model of climate change impacts will demonstrate that the Laboratory is addressing climate change impacts in a comprehensive manner. This paper fulfills the requirement of goal 1. The establishment of specific indices of climate change at Los Alamos (goal 2), will improve our ability to determine climate change vulnerabilities and assess risk. Future work will include prioritizing risks, evaluating options/technologies/costs, and where appropriate, taking actions. To develop a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts, we selected the framework provided in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Resilience Toolkit (http://toolkit.climate.gov/).

  3. Impacts of Climate Change on Inequities in Child Health

    OpenAIRE

    Charmian M. Bennett; Sharon Friel

    2014-01-01

    This paper addresses an often overlooked aspect of climate change impacts on child health: the amplification of existing child health inequities by climate change. Although the effects of climate change on child health will likely be negative, the distribution of these impacts across populations will be uneven. The burden of climate change-related ill-health will fall heavily on the world’s poorest and socially-disadvantaged children, who already have poor survival rates and low life expect...

  4. The Poverty Impact of Climate Change in Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    de la Fuente, Alejandro; Olivera Villarroel, Marcelo

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the effects of climate change on poverty through the relationship between indicators of climate change (temperature and rainfall change) and municipal level gross domestic product, and subsequently between gross domestic product and poverty. The evidence suggests that climate change could have a negative impact on poverty by 2030. The paper proposes a two-stage least sq...

  5. Reducing the impact of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    2007-01-01

    The most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) found that there is overwhelming evidence that humans are affecting climate and it highlighted the implications for human health. The World Health Organization (WHO) is helping countries respond to this challenge, primarily by encouraging them to build and reinforce public health systems as the first line of defence against climate-related health risks.

  6. Climate change impact on hydrological extremes along rivers in Flanders

    OpenAIRE

    Boukhris, O.

    2008-01-01

    This PhD thesis presents the development of a methodology that analyzes potential climate change impacts on hydrological extremes along rivers in Flanders (Belgium).The main objective of this study is to show whether hydrological modelling techniques driven by climate modelling techniques and climate change scenarios enable a prediction of the long-term evolution of the hydrological system of the studied area.The climate change impact analysis is based on a continuous simulation approach: The...

  7. THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TOURISM AND RECREATION

    OpenAIRE

    Jacqueline M. Hamilton; Richard S.J. Tol

    2004-01-01

    Tourism is one of the largest and fastest growing economic sectors. Tourism is obviously related to climate, as tourists prefer spending time outdoors and travel to enjoy the sun or landscape. It is therefore surprising that the tourism literature pays little attention to climate and climatic change and it is equally surprising that the climate change impact literature pays little attention to tourism. The number of studies on tourism and climate change is, however, starting to grow. This pap...

  8. The impact of climate change on agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    John Quiggin

    2008-01-01

    It is now virtually certain that Australia and the world will experience significant climate change over the next century, as a result of human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases. This note is a brief discussion of the projected effects of climate change on agriculture, under ‘business as usual’ conditions in which global concentrations of CO2 grow steadily and under the assumption that a global mitigation effort successfully stabilises global concentrations o...

  9. Climate change impacts on forestry: Economic issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meteorological evidence indicates the likelihood of global climatic warming in the near future. A study was carried out of the economic effects of climate change on the Canadian forestry sector. The measurement of net economic benefits of climate change, and the complexities associated with such measurements are discussed. Assuming a productivity increase of 20% as a result of carbon dioxide doubling, Canada's potential harvests of timber would increase by a total of 7.5%, as a result of less but more productive forest land. An economic analysis was carried out of the shift in timber supply balances due to changes in the US forest sector due to climate change. A decline in US productivity is expected due to lower rainfall and increased desert conditions in many parts of the US. It is not clear whether Canada experiences a net gain or a net loss on account of the climate changes modelled, as in addition to the elasticities of supply and demand, it also depends on existing trade barriers and the extent to which timber production in other countries is affected by climate change. 25 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  10. Climate change impacts on food system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.

    2014-12-01

    Food system includes biophysical factors (climate, land and water), human environments (production technologies and food consumption, distribution and marketing), as well as the dynamic interactions within them. Climate change affects agriculture and food systems in various ways. Agricultural production can be influenced directly by climatic factors such as mean temperature rising, change in rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme events. Eventually, climate change could cause shift of arable land, alteration of water availability, abnormal fluctuation of food prices, and increase of people at risk of malnutrition. This work aims to evaluate how climate change would affect agricultural production biophysically and how these effects would propagate to social factors at the global level. In order to model the complex interactions between the natural and social components, a Global Optimization model of Agricultural Land and Water resources (GOALW) is applied to the analysis. GOALW includes various demands of human society (food, feed, other), explicit production module, and irrigation water availability constraint. The objective of GOALW is to maximize global social welfare (consumers' surplus and producers' surplus).Crop-wise irrigation water use in different regions around the world are determined by the model; marginal value of water (MVW) can be obtained from the model, which implies how much additional welfare benefit could be gained with one unit increase in local water availability. Using GOALW, we will analyze two questions in this presentation: 1) how climate change will alter irrigation requirements and how the social system would buffer that by price/demand adjustment; 2) how will the MVW be affected by climate change and what are the controlling factors. These results facilitate meaningful insights for investment and adaptation strategies in sustaining world's food security under climate change.

  11. Climate Change Impacts and Risks for Animal Health in Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Forman, S.; Hungerford, N.; Yamakawa, M; Yanase, T.; Tsai, H J; Joo, Y.S.; Yang, D. K.; Nha, J. J.

    2008-01-01

    The threat of climate change and global warming is now recognised worldwide and some alarming manifestations of change have occurred. The Asian continent, because of its size and diversity, may be affected significantly by the consequences of climate change, and its new status as a 'hub' of livestock production gives it an important role in mitigating possible impacts of climate variability on animal health. Animal health may be affected by climate change in four ways: heat-related diseases a...

  12. Impact of Climate Change on Poverty in Laos

    OpenAIRE

    Kyophilavong, Phouphet; Takamatsu, Shinya

    2011-01-01

    The climate change is global problems. It is predicted to have more severe impact on developing country which most of population are poor. The main impact of climate change on poverty is changing crop productivity and commodity prices. However, there are few studies on the relationship between climate change and poverty. Therefore, this study will use Laos which has a high share of agriculture sector on GDP and high poverty rates as a case study to assess the impact the climate change on nati...

  13. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies : An advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change impa

  14. Economic impacts of climate change in Australia: framework and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: There is growing interest in understanding the potential impacts of climate change in Australia, and especially the economic impacts of 'inaction'. In this study, a preliminary analysis of the possible economic impacts of future climate change in Australia is undertaken using ABARE's general equilibrium model of the global economy, GTEM. In order to understand the potential economy-wide economic impacts, the broad climatic trends that Australia is likely to experience over the next several decades are canvassed and the potential economic and non-economic impacts on key risk areas, such as water resources, agriculture and forests, health, industry and human settlements and the ecosystems, are identified. A more detailed analysis of the economic impacts of climate change are undertaken by developing two case studies. In the first case study, the economic impact of climate change and reduced water availability on the agricultural sector is assessed in the Murray-Darling Basin. In the second case study, the sectoral economic impacts on the Australian resources sector of a projected decline in global economic activity due to climate change is analysed. The key areas of required development to more fully understand the economy-wide and sectoral impacts of climate change are also discussed including issues associated with estimating both non-market and market impacts. Finally, an analytical framework for undertaking integrated assessment of climate change impacts domestically and globally is developed

  15. The impact of climate change on the European energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change can affect the economy via many different channels in many different sectors. The POLES global energy model has been modified to widen the coverage of climate change impacts on the European energy system. The impacts considered are changes in heating and cooling demand in the residential and services sector, changes in the efficiency of thermal power plants, and changes in hydro, wind (both on- and off-shore) and solar PV electricity output. Results of the impacts of six scenarios on the European energy system are presented, and the implications for European energy security and energy imports are presented. Main findings include: demand side impacts (heating and cooling in the residential and services sector) are larger than supply side impacts; power generation from fossil-fuel and nuclear sources decreases and renewable energy increases; and impacts are larger in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe. There remain many more climate change impacts on the energy sector that cannot currently be captured due to a variety of issues including: lack of climate data, difficulties translating climate data into energy-system-relevant data, lack of detail in energy system models where climate impacts act. This paper does not attempt to provide an exhaustive analysis of climate change impacts in the energy sector, it is rather another step towards an increasing coverage of possible impacts. - Highlights: • Expanded coverage of climate change impacts on European energy system. • Demand side impacts are larger than supply side impacts. • Power from fossil and nuclear sources decreases, renewable energy increases. • Impacts are larger in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe. • Synergies exist between climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation

  16. The Impact of Climate Change on Global Tropical Storm Damages

    OpenAIRE

    Mendelsohn, Robert; Emanuel, Kerry; Chonabayashi, Shun

    2011-01-01

    This paper constructs an integrated assessment model of tropical cyclones in order to quantify the impact that climate change may have on tropical cyclone damages in countries around the world. The paper relies on a tropical cyclone generator in each ocean and several climate models to predict tropical cyclones with and without climate change. A damage model is constructed to compute the r...

  17. Climate change impacts and migration in Bangladesh

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Stojanov, Robert; Ullah, A.; Duží, Barbora; Vikhrov, Dmytro

    Brno: Global change research centre, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, v. v. i, 2013 - (Stojanov, R.; Žalud, Z.; Cudlín, P.; Farda, A.; Urban, O.; Trnka, M.), s. 61-65 ISBN 978-80-904351-8-6. [Global Change and Resilience. Brno (CZ), 22.05.2013-24.05.2013] Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : environmentally induced migration * adaptation * climate change * Floods * Banghladesh * India Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour

  18. Modeling of climate change impacts on agriculture, forestry and fishery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changes in climate affect agriculture, forest and fisheries. This paper examines the climate change impact on crop production, fishery and forestry using state - of - the - art modeling technique. Crop growth model InfoCrop was used to predict the climate change impacts on the yields of rice, wheat and maize in Bangladesh. Historical climate change scenario has little or no negative impacts on rice and wheat yields in Mymensingh and Dinajpur but IPCC climate change scenario has higher negative impacts. There is almost no change in the yields of maize for the historical climate change scenario in the Chittagong, Hill Tracts of but there is a small decrease in the yields of rice and maize for IPCC climate change scenario. A new statistical model to forecast climate change impacts on fishery in the world oceans has been developed. Total climate change impact on fishery in the Indian Ocean is negative and the predictor power is 94.14% for eastern part and 98.59% for the western part. Two models are presented for the mangrove forests of the Sundarbans. To bole volumes of the pioneer, intermediate and climax are simulated for three different logging strategies and the results have been discussed in this paper. (author)

  19. Public health impacts of climate change in Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, H D; Dhimal, B; Dhimal, M; Bhusal, C L

    2011-04-01

    Climate change is a global issue in this century which has challenged the survival of living creatures affecting the life supporting systems of the earth: atmosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere. Scientists have reached in a consensus that climate change is happening. The anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases is responsible for global warming and therefore climate change. Climate change may directly or indirectly affect human health through a range of pathways related to temperature and precipitation. The aim of this article is to share knowledge on how climate change can affect public health in Nepal based on scientific evidence from global studies and experience gained locally. In this review attempt has been made to critically analyze the scientific studies as well as policy documents of Nepalese Government and shed light on public health impact of climate change in the context of Nepal. Detailed scientific study is recommended to discern impact of climate change on public health problems in Nepal. PMID:22929718

  20. The impact of climate change on birds: a review

    OpenAIRE

    Weiwei Wu; Haigen Xu; Jun Wu; Mingchang Cao

    2012-01-01

    The impact of climate change on biodiversity has become a hot issue. This paper reviews the effects of climate change on avian distribution, phenology and population dynamics according to the results of the latest research. Due to climate change, bird distributions have shifted towards high-latitude and high-altitude areas, which is changing more quickly than before. However, the breeding area which bird lived was changed different from the non-breedings. In addition, the ranges of many speci...

  1. Impact of climate change on Gironde estuary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Within the THESEUS European project, a simplified mathematical model for storm surge levels in the Bay of Biscay was adjusted on 10 events at Le Verdon using wind and pressure fields from CLM/SGA, so that the water levels at Le Verdon have the same statistic quantiles as observed tide records for the period [1960-2000]. A numerical model of the Gironde Estuary was used to evaluate future water levels at 6 locations of the estuary from Le Verdon to Bordeaux and to assess the changes in the quantiles of water levels during the 21. century using ONERC's pessimistic scenario for sea level rise (60 cm). The analysis of future storm surge levels shows a decrease in their quantiles at Le Verdon,, whereas there is an increase of the quantiles of total water levels. This increase is smaller than the sea level rise and gets even smaller as one enters farther upstream in the estuary. A series of flood maps for different return periods between 2 and 100 years and for four time periods ([1960-1999], [2010-2039], [2040-2069] and [2070-2099]) have been built for the region of Bordeaux. Quantiles of water levels in the flood plain have also been calculated. The impact of climate change on the evolution of flooded areas in the Gironde Estuary and on quantiles of water levels in the flood plain mainly depends on the sea level rise. Areas which are not currently flooded for low return periods will be inundated in 2100. The influence of river discharges and dike breaching should also be taken into account for more accurate results. (authors)

  2. Climate Change in Environmental Impact Assessment of Renewable Energy Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2012-01-01

    Many renewable energy projects are subject to EIA. However a question that surfaces is what use an impact assessment is when the project is ‘good for the environment’? One of the current topics receiving much attention in impact assessment is climate change and how this factor is integrated in...... impact assessments. This warrants the question: How do we assess the climate change related impacts of a project that inherently has a positive effect on climate? This paper is based on a document study of EIA reports from Denmark. The results show that climate change is included in most of the EIA...... reports reviewed, and that only climate change mitigation is in focus while adaptation is absent. Also the results point to focus on positive impacts, while the indirect negative impacts are less apparent. This leads to a discussion of the results in the light of the purpose of EIA....

  3. Impacts of Climate Change on Biofuels Production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melillo, Jerry M. [Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA (United States)

    2014-04-30

    The overall goal of this research project was to improve and use our biogeochemistry model, TEM, to simulate the effects of climate change and other environmental changes on the production of biofuel feedstocks. We used the improved version of TEM that is coupled with the economic model, EPPA, a part of MIT’s Earth System Model, to explore how alternative uses of land, including land for biofuels production, can help society meet proposed climate targets. During the course of this project, we have made refinements to TEM that include development of a more mechanistic plant module, with improved ecohydrology and consideration of plant-water relations, and a more detailed treatment of soil nitrogen dynamics, especially processes that add or remove nitrogen from ecosystems. We have documented our changes to TEM and used the model to explore the effects on production in land ecosystems, including changes in biofuels production.

  4. Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Forestry Development in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Forestry and forest ecosystem are highly sensitive to climate change.At present,studies about the responses of forests to climate change in China are more focused on physical influences of climate change.This paper firstly divided the key impact factors of climate change on forest and forestry developing into direct factors and indirect factors,and then made an assessment on climate change affecting future forestry development from the aspect of forest products and ecological services.On this basis,the adap...

  5. Impact of Climate Change in Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    N.B. Ikenweiwe; A.I. Opele; S.O. Ayoola,; A.A. Idowu,

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is an adverse environmental phenomenon that is causing enormous concern all over the world. It refers to some anomalies in the climate system that is a result of human activities. These anomalies include increase in the concentration of GHGs, HFCs and CFCs in earth’s atmosphere, which will ultimately leadto global warming. In fact, global warming has already begun, as earth’s temperature has risen between 0.4 and 0.8°C in the last 100 years. Nigeria is one of the world’s most d...

  6. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    OpenAIRE

    Hagemann, S.; Chen, Cui; Clark, D.B.; S. Folwell; Gosling, S.; Haddeland, I.; Hanasaki, N.; J. Heinke; F. Ludwig

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three) and hydrological 5 models (eight) were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climat...

  7. Impact of Climate Change in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N.B. Ikenweiwe

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is an adverse environmental phenomenon that is causing enormous concern all over the world. It refers to some anomalies in the climate system that is a result of human activities. These anomalies include increase in the concentration of GHGs, HFCs and CFCs in earth’s atmosphere, which will ultimately leadto global warming. In fact, global warming has already begun, as earth’s temperature has risen between 0.4 and 0.8°C in the last 100 years. Nigeria is one of the world’s most densely populated countries with a population of 180 million people, half of which are considered to be in abject poverty. Nigeria is recognized as beingvulnerable to climate change. Climate change and global warming if left unchecked will cause adverse effects on livelihoods in Nigeria, such as crop production, livestock production, fisheries, forestry and post-harvest activities, because the rainfall regimes and patterns will be altered, floods which devastate farmlands wouldoccur, increase in temperature and humidity which increases pest and disease would occur and other natural disasters like floods, ocean and storm surges, which not only damage Nigerians’ livelihood but also cause harm to life and property, would occur. The paper provides a strong starting point and a useful guide for furtherinvestigations and solution finding projects, both at the local and international levels which focus on more specific issues like public health, food security, energy, adaptations and barriers to them.

  8. Climate change impacts in computable general equilibrium models: An overview

    OpenAIRE

    Döll, Sebastian

    2009-01-01

    This paper gives an overview about existing Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models dealing with climate impacts focusing on damage calculations and adaptation modelling. Empirical CGE models are used in a broad field of policy analysis. With respect to climate change applications have been focused on the calculation of climate damages and the mitigation of these damages. Facing the non-preventable damages from climate change that occur already in the next decades adaptation is becoming a...

  9. Winners and Losers: Climate Change Impacts on Biodiversity in Ireland

    OpenAIRE

    Coll, John; Bourke, David; Gormally, Michael; Sheehy Skeffington, Micheline; Sweeney, John

    2013-01-01

    The climate envelope modelling described in this report represents a staged investigation into the possible impacts of climate change on the nature conservation resources of Ireland. It represents a significant piece of original research applying state-ofthe- art methods for the first time in Ireland, and is an important step in trying to understand the complex interactions between climate, climate change, and species and habitats across the island. The work is one ...

  10. Impacts of climate change on fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith

    2010-01-01

    direct and indirect effects of a number of physical and chemical factors, which include temperature, winds, vertical mixing, salinity, oxygen, pH and others. The direct effects act on the physiology, development rates, reproduction, behaviour and survival of individuals and can in some cases be studied...... experimentally and in controlled conditions. Indirect effects act via ecosystem processes and changes in the production of food or abundance of competitors, predators and pathogens. Recent studies of the effects of climate on primary production are reviewed and the consequences for fisheries production are...... evaluated through regional examples. Regional examples are also used to show changes in distribution and phenology of plankton and fish, which are attributed to climate. The role of discontinuous and extreme events (regime shifts, exceptional warm periods) is discussed. Changes in fish population processes...

  11. Climate change -- Its impacts on Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Predictions regarding the possible effects of global warming on Bangladesh's climate are uncertain. However, the predictions for 2030 made by four General Circulation Models all suggest that there might be increased precipitation, with estimates ranging between 5 and 100% increases in rainfall. Increases of these magnitudes, if they were to occur, would have significant implications for agriculture, flooding, river sediment loads, and flood protection works. Increased flooding of the coastal areas of countries like Bangladesh is a possibility, and enormous health and economic distress and human suffering may follow. With the change in temperature, there may be unpredictable change in bacterial and viral morphology with health hazards of unpredictable limits. It has been estimated that a 100 cm rise in sea level in the Bay of Bengal would result in 12--18% of land areas of Bangladesh being lost to the sea, including most of the Sundarbans. Although it is difficult to predict the timing and magnitude of all the global changes including sea-level rise, climate change, etc., it is anticipated that one of the most serious consequence for Bangladesh would be the reduction of already minimal land: person ratio and consequently exacerbating pressure on the remaining natural resources. Bangladesh is in favor of an international agreement for assistance to vulnerable countries like Bangladesh to take necessary preparations and adopt measures to survive a sea-level rise, climate change, increased flooding, and more frequent storm surges

  12. Modeling Climate Change Impacts on the US Agricultural Exports

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Yu-quan; CAI Yong-xia; Beach Robert H; McCARL Bruce A

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is expected to have substantial effects on agricultural productivity worldwide. However, these impacts will differ across commodities, locations and time periods. As a result, landowners will see changes in relative returns that are likely to induce modiifcations in production practices and land allocation. In addition, regional variations in impacts can alter relative competitiveness across countries and lead to adjustments in international trade patterns. Thus in climate change impact studies it is likely useful to account for worldwide productivity effects. In this study, we investigate the implications of considering rest of world climate impacts on projections of the US agricultural exports. We chose to focus on the US because it is one of the largest agricultural exporters. To conduct our analyses, we consider four alternative climate scenarios, both with and without rest of world climate change impacts. Our results show that considering/ignoring rest of world climate impacts causes signiifcant changes in the US production and exports projections. Thus we feel climate change impact studies should account not only for climate impacts in the country of focus but also on productivity in the rest of the world in order to capture effects on commodity markets and trade potential.

  13. A General Equilibrium Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tourism

    OpenAIRE

    BIGANO, Andrea; Berrittella, Maria; Roson, Roberto; Richard S.J. Tol

    2004-01-01

    This paper studies the economic implications of climate-change-induced variations in tourism demand, using a world CGE model. The model is first re-calibrated at some future years, obtaining hypothetical benchmark equilibria, which are subsequently perturbed by shocks, simulating the effects of climate change. We portray the impact of climate change on tourism by means of two sets of shocks, occurring simultaneously. The first shocks translate predicted variations in tourist flows into change...

  14. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Gerrit; Stone, Dáithí

    2016-05-01

    Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts related to atmospheric and ocean temperature can be confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. In contrast, evidence connecting changes in precipitation and their respective impacts to human influence is still weak. Moreover, anthropogenic climate change has been a major influence for approximately three-quarters of the impacts observed on continental scales. Hence the effects of anthropogenic emissions can now be discerned not only globally, but also at more regional and local scales for a variety of natural and human systems.

  15. Climate change impact on future ocean acidification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Elevated atmospheric C02 levels and associated uptake by the ocean is changing its carbon chemistry, leading to an acidification. The implications of future ocean acidification on the marine ecosystem are unclear but seemingly detrimental particularly to those organisms and phytoplankton that secrete calcium carbonate (like corals). Here we present new results from the Australian CSIRO General Circulation Model that predicts the changing nature of oceanic carbon chemistry in response to future climate change feedbacks (circulation, temperature and biological). We will discuss the implications of future ocean acidification and the potential implications on Australia's marine ecosystems

  16. Impacts of Climate Change on Inequities in Child Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Charmian M; Friel, Sharon

    2014-01-01

    This paper addresses an often overlooked aspect of climate change impacts on child health: the amplification of existing child health inequities by climate change. Although the effects of climate change on child health will likely be negative, the distribution of these impacts across populations will be uneven. The burden of climate change-related ill-health will fall heavily on the world's poorest and socially-disadvantaged children, who already have poor survival rates and low life expectancies due to issues including poverty, endemic disease, undernutrition, inadequate living conditions and socio-economic disadvantage. Climate change will exacerbate these existing inequities to disproportionately affect disadvantaged children. We discuss heat stress, extreme weather events, vector-borne diseases and undernutrition as exemplars of the complex interactions between climate change and inequities in child health. PMID:27417491

  17. Impacts of Climate Change on Inequities in Child Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charmian M. Bennett

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses an often overlooked aspect of climate change impacts on child health: the amplification of existing child health inequities by climate change. Although the effects of climate change on child health will likely be negative, the distribution of these impacts across populations will be uneven. The burden of climate change-related ill-health will fall heavily on the world’s poorest and socially-disadvantaged children, who already have poor survival rates and low life expectancies due to issues including poverty, endemic disease, undernutrition, inadequate living conditions and socio-economic disadvantage. Climate change will exacerbate these existing inequities to disproportionately affect disadvantaged children. We discuss heat stress, extreme weather events, vector-borne diseases and undernutrition as exemplars of the complex interactions between climate change and inequities in child health.

  18. Questioning Complacency: Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation in Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Most European assessments of climate change impacts have been carried out on sectors and ecosystems, providing a narrow understanding of what climate change really means for society. Furthermore, the main focus has been on technological adaptations, with less attention paid to the process of climate change adaptation. In this article, we present and analyze findings from recent studies on climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway, with the aim of identifying the wider social impacts of climate change. Three main lessons can be drawn. First, the potential thresholds and indirect effects may be more important than the direct, sectoral effects. Second, highly sensitive sectors, regions, and communities combine with differential social vulnerability to create both winners and losers. Third, high national levels of adaptive capacity mask the barriers and constraints to adaptation, particularly among those who are most vulnerable to climate change. Based on these results, we question complacency in Norway and other European countries regarding climate change impacts and adaptation. We argue that greater attention needs to be placed on the social context of climate change impacts and on the processes shaping vulnerability and adaptation

  19. Impacts of climate change on electricity network business

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate has a significant impact on the electricity network business. The electricity network is under the weather pressure all the time and it is planned and constructed to withstand normal climatic stresses. The electricity network that has been planned and constructed now, is expected to be in operation next 40 years. If climatic stresses change in this period, it can cause significant impacts on electricity network business. If the impacts of climate change are figured out in advance, it is possible to mitigate negative points of climate change and exploit the positive points. In this paper the impact of climate change on electricity network business is presented. The results are based on RCAO climate model scenarios. The climate predictions were composed to the period 2016. 2045. The period 1960.1990 was used as a control period. The climate predictions were composed for precipitation, temperature, hoarfrost, thunder, ground frost and wind. The impacts of the change of the climate variables on electricity network business were estimated from technical and economical points of view. The estimation was based on the change predictions of the climate variables. It is expected that climate change will cause more damages than benefits on the electricity network business. The increase of the number of network faults will be the most significant and demanding disadvantage caused by climate change. If networks are not improved to be more resistant for faults, then thunder, heavy snow and wind cause more damages especially to overhead lines in medium voltage network. Increasing precipitation and decreasing amount of ground frost weaken the strength of soil. The construction work will be more difficult with the present vehicles because wet and unfrozen ground can not carry heavy vehicles. As a consequence of increasing temperature, the demand of heating energy will decrease and the demand of cooling energy will increase. This is significant for the electricity

  20. Uncertainty assessment tool for climate change impact indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Juliane; Keup-Thiel, Elke; Jacob, Daniela; Rechid, Diana; Lückenkötter, Johannes; Juckes, Martin

    2015-04-01

    A major difficulty in the study of climate change impact indicators is dealing with the numerous sources of uncertainties of climate and non-climate data . Its assessment, however, is needed to communicate to users the degree of certainty of climate change impact indicators. This communication of uncertainty is an important component of the FP7 project "Climate Information Portal for Copernicus" (CLIPC). CLIPC is developing a portal to provide a central point of access for authoritative scientific information on climate change. In this project the Climate Service Center 2.0 is in charge of the development of a tool to assess the uncertainty of climate change impact indicators. The calculation of climate change impact indicators will include climate data from satellite and in-situ observations, climate models and re-analyses, and non-climate data. There is a lack of a systematic classification of uncertainties arising from the whole range of climate change impact indicators. We develop a framework that intends to clarify the potential sources of uncertainty of a given indicator and provides - if possible - solutions how to quantify the uncertainties. To structure the sources of uncertainties of climate change impact indicators, we first classify uncertainties along a 'cascade of uncertainty' (Reyer 2013). Our cascade consists of three levels which correspond to the CLIPC meta-classification of impact indicators: Tier-1 indicators are intended to give information on the climate system. Tier-2 indicators attempt to quantify the impacts of climate change on biophysical systems (i.e. flood risks). Tier-3 indicators primarily aim at providing information on the socio-economic systems affected by climate change. At each level, the potential sources of uncertainty of the input data sets and its processing will be discussed. Reference: Reyer, C. (2013): The cascade of uncertainty in modeling forest ecosystem responses to environmental change and the challenge of sustainable

  1. Climate change and global crop yield: impacts, uncertainties and adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Deryng, Delphine

    2014-01-01

    As global mean temperature continues to rise steadily, agricultural systems are projected to face unprecedented challenges to cope with climate change. However, understanding of climate change impacts on global crop yield, and of farmers’ adaptive capacity, remains incomplete as previous global assessments: (1) inadequately evaluated the role of extreme weather events; (2) focused on a small subset of the full range of climate change predictions; (3) overlooked uncertainties related to the ch...

  2. Climate change in Australia: agricultural impacts and adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Kingwell, Ross S.

    2006-01-01

    Impacts on Australian agriculture of projected climate change are likely to be spatially and temporally diverse, with many regions likely to experience increased downside risk in agricultural production. Some regions, such as south-west Australia, are projected to be particularly at risk of adverse outcomes associated with climate change. The rate and extent of warming, along with impacts on rainfall distributions, are key determinants of agricultural impacts and will affect the success of ad...

  3. Climate Change Impacts on Worldwide Coffee Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foreman, T.; Rising, J. A.

    2015-12-01

    Coffee (Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora) plays a vital role in many countries' economies, providing necessary income to 25 million members of tropical countries, and supporting a $81 billion industry, making it one of the most valuable commodities in the world. At the same time, coffee is at the center of many issues of sustainability. It is vulnerable to climate change, with disease outbreaks becoming more common and suitable regions beginning to shift. We develop a statistical production model for coffee which incorporates temperature, precipitation, frost, and humidity effects using a new database of worldwide coffee production. We then use this model to project coffee yields and production into the future based on a variety of climate forecasts. This model can then be used together with a market model to forecast the locations of future coffee production as well as future prices, supply, and demand.

  4. Wildlife as biological indicators for assessing impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Estimates of the impacts of climate change on wildlife are necessarily constrained by knowledge of the effects of climate on wildlife. A review is presented of the better-known impacts of climate on wildlife, examining their utility as ecological indicators. The most obvious feature of any species is its geographic distribution, or range. Climate may affect distribution indirectly through effects on habitat, directly through physiological effects, or most probably, through both. Impacts can include changes in distribution of habitat, changes in distribution of species, and changes in migration routes. Direct effects of climate include timing and success of breeding, timing and success of migration, winter survival, and extreme events. Distribution changes are powerful integrators of ecosystem-level events, but poor indicators of particular changes. Changes in the timing of migration, and the phenology of breeding, are more directly determined by weather events and hence will be better indicators of changing climate. Detailed knowledge of effects of climate on timing and success of breeding is available for only a few species, and has not been carefully synthesized with a view to using such variables as climatic indicators. Temperature maxima and minima, frost-free and degree days, and estimates of precipitation on finer scales, both temporal and geographic, are needed to predict the effects of climate change on wildlife. 48 refs

  5. Potential future impacts of climatic change on the Great Plains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A synopsis is provided of approaches to impact studies in the Great Plains, findings from studies of future impacts are summarized, and opportunities for enhancing understanding of future impacts are discussed. Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources, forestry, recreation/tourism, and energy are summarized. Impact analyses need to look more rigorously at variability in climate, the probabilities of various climatic conditions, and the sensitivity of social and economic activities to climatic variability. Most economic impact studies have assumed no adaptive behavior on the part of economic decision makers. Credible impact assessments require an improved understanding of the sensitivity and adaptability of sectors to climatic conditions, particularly variability. The energy sector in the Great Plains region is likely to be more sensitive to political developments in the Middle East than to climatic variability and change. Speculation and analysis of climate impacts have focused on supply conditions and demands, yet the sector is more keenly sensitive to policy implications of climatic change, such as the potential for fossil fuel taxes or other legislative or pricing constraints. 28 refs

  6. Impact of climate change on waterborne diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enzo Funari

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Change in climate and water cycle will challenge water availability but it will also increase the exposure to unsafe water. Floods, droughts, heavy storms, changes in rain pattern, increase of temperature and sea level, they all show an increasing trend worldwide and will affect biological, physical and chemical components of water through different paths thus enhancing the risk of waterborne diseases. This paper is intended, through reviewing the available literature, to highlight environmental changes and critical situations caused by floods, drought and warmer temperature that will lead to an increase of exposure to water related pathogens, chemical hazards and cyanotoxins. The final aim is provide knowledge-based elements for more focused adaptation measures.

  7. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    OpenAIRE

    Hagemann, S.; Chen, C.; Clark, D.B.; S. Folwell; Gosling, S.N.; Haddeland, I.; Hanasaki, N.; J. Heinke; F. Ludwig; Voß, F.; A. J. Wiltshire

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three) and hydrological models (eight) were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climate–...

  8. Climate change and Public health: vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzzone, F.; Setegn, S.

    2013-12-01

    Climate Change plays a significant role in public health. Changes in climate affect weather conditions that we are accustomed to. Increases in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events such as storms could increase the risk of dangerous flooding, high winds, and other direct threats to people and property. Changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and extreme events could enhance the spread of some diseases. According to studies by EPA, the impacts of climate change on health will depend on many factors. These factors include the effectiveness of a community's public health and safety systems to address or prepare for the risk and the behavior, age, gender, and economic status of individuals affected. Impacts will likely vary by region, the sensitivity of populations, the extent and length of exposure to climate change impacts, and society's ability to adapt to change. Transmissions of infectious disease have been associated with social, economic, ecological, health care access, and climatic factors. Some vector-borne diseases typically exhibit seasonal patterns in which the role of temperature and rainfall is well documented. Some of the infectious diseases that have been documented by previous studies, include the correlation between rainfall and drought in the occurrence of malaria, the influence of the dry season on epidemic meningococcal disease in the sub-Saharan African, and the importance of warm ocean waters in driving cholera occurrence in the Ganges River delta in Asia The rise of climate change has been a major concern in the public health sector. Climate change mainly affects vulnerable populations especially in developing countries; therefore, it's important that public health advocates are involve in the decision-making process in order to provide resources and preventative measures for the challenges that are associated with climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the vulnerability and impact of climate change

  9. Global climate change impacts on forests and markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Xiaohui; Sohngen, Brent; Kim, John B.; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2016-03-01

    This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, the MC2 model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase by approximately 30% over the century. Aboveground forest carbon storage also is projected to increase, by approximately 26 Pg C by 2115, as a result of climate change, potentially providing an offset to emissions from other sectors. The effects of climate mitigation policies in the energy sector are then examined. When climate mitigation in the energy sector reduces warming, we project a smaller increase in forest outputs over the timeframe of the analysis, and we project a reduction in the sink capacity of forests of around 12 Pg C by 2115.

  10. Impact of Climate Change on Forests in India

    OpenAIRE

    Ravindranath, NH; Joshi, NV; Sukumar, R.; Saxena, A.

    2005-01-01

    Global assessments have shown that future climate change is likely to significantly impact forest ecosystems. The present study makes an assessment of the impact of projected climate change on forest ecosystems in India. This assessment is based on climate projections of Regional Climate Model of the Hadley Centre (HadRM3) using the A2 (740 ppm CO2) and B2 (575 ppm CO2) scenarios of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the BIOME4 vegetation response model. The main conclusion is that und...

  11. Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sloth Madsen, M; Fox Maule, C; MacKellar, N;

    2012-01-01

    illustrates how the projected climate change signal of important variables as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity depends on the choice of the climate model. Using climate change projections from at least two different climate models is recommended to account for model uncertainty. To make...... the climate projections suitable for impact analysis at the local scale a weather generator approach was adopted. As the weather generator did not treat all the necessary variables, an ad-hoc statistical method was developed to synthesise realistic values of missing variables. The method is presented...... in this paper, applied to relative humidity, but it could be adopted to other variables if needed....

  12. Impact of climatic change on alpine ecosystems: inference and prediction

    OpenAIRE

    YOCCOZ, Nigel G.; Anne Delestrade; Anne Loison

    2011-01-01

    Alpine ecosystems will be greatly impacted by climatic change, but other factors, such as land use and invasive species, are likely to play an important role too. Climate can influence ecosystems at several levels. We describe some of them, stressing methodological approaches and available data. Climate can modify species phenology, such as flowering date of plants and hatching date in insects. It can also change directly population demography (survival, reproduction, dispersal), and therefor...

  13. Impact of Climate change on Milk production of Murrah buffaloes

    OpenAIRE

    A. Ashutosh; Gupta, S.K.; Kumar, A.(State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, USA); Singh, S. V.; Upadhyay, R. C.

    2010-01-01

    Global warming is likely to impact productivity of buffaloes due to their sensitivity to temperature changes. Air temperature, humidity, wind velocity and solar radiation are the main climate variables that affect buffalo production in tropical climate. In the present study sensitivity of lactating Murrah buffaloes to sudden temperature (Tmax, Tmin) change and THI have been analyzed from milk production and climatic records (1994-2004) of Karnal. Algorithms were developed and validated on lac...

  14. Vulnerability and Adaptation to the Health Impacts of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Antonio Postigo

    2008-01-01

    Antonio Postigo argues that in contrast to the increasing recognition of the environmental outcomes of climate change, its consequences on human health have received little attention. These health impacts will be largely shaped by socio-economic factors being more severe among vulnerable communities in developing countries. He outlines the need to integrate health vulnerabilities into climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. Greater consideration of the health effects of climate c...

  15. Assessing the likely impacts of climate change on infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: In 2005, the Victorian Government contracted CSIRO, Maunsell Australia and Phillips Fox to undertake an overview assessment of the likely impacts of climate change on the State's infrastructure, establish the categories of infrastructure most at risk and outline opportunities for adaptation responses. The Government released the assessment in May 2007. Climate change poses a significant risk to infrastructure and its owners, managers and long-term operators. The work was undertaken on the basis that it should not be assumed that future climate and its impacts will simply be an extension of what has been experienced in the past. Major infrastructure items have long useful life spans (20-100 years). A bridge built today is expected to still be in use in tens, if not hundreds, of years. This means that recognition of likely climate change impacts and appropriate adaptation measures should occur now. Recognition of the risks associated with climate change is a valuable first step towards better planning of new infrastructure investments and reducing potential damage to existing infrastructure.lnfrastructure types examined were water, power, telecommunications, transport and buildings. The climate change projections used in this report are based on CSIRO climate modelling, supported by findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climatic and other variables considered were temperature, rainfall, available moisture, humidity, winds, fire-weather frequency and intensity, solar radiation levels and sea-level rise. For each climate change variable identified, we described a worst-case impact for low and high climate change projections for the years 2030 and 2070. The assessment was made on the basis of 'business as usual' with no adaptation responses to climate change. The report also details the current governance structures associated with each infrastructure type. Overall, the report assessed the likely impact of climate change on

  16. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagemann, S.; Chen, Cui; Clark, D.B.; Folwell, S.; Gosling, S.; Haddeland, I.; Hanasaki, N.; Heinke, J.; Ludwig, F.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three) and hydrological 5 models (eight) were used to systematically

  17. Impact of climate change on insect pests of trees

    OpenAIRE

    Moraal, L.G.; Jagers op Akkerhuis, L.; Jagers op Akkerhuis, G.A.J.M.

    2008-01-01

    There are many interactions and it is exetremely difficult to predict the impact of climate change on insect pests in the future, but we may expect an increase of certain primary pests as well as secondary pests and invasive species

  18. Salmon Population Summary - Impacts of climate change on Pacific salmon

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This work involves 1) synthesizing information from the literature and 2) modeling impacts of climate change on specific aspects of salmon life history and...

  19. Potential impacts of climate change on Manitoba Hydro

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An overview of Manitoba Hydro's system was presented during this PowerPoint presentation which focused on significant climate trends, the potential impacts of climate change and climate change initiatives at Manitoba Hydro compared to other utilities. Ninety-five per cent of the electricity generated in Manitoba comes from hydroelectricity from the Churchill/Nelson River drainage basin. Twelve existing generating stations in the province contribute to the total installed generating capacity of 5500 MW, of which 300 MW is exported to Saskatchewan, 200 MW to Ontario and 2000 MW to the United States. Significant climate trends indicate that temperatures are increasing and there is a greater incidence of extreme weather events which can affect water supply. Manitoba Hydro must plan future resource needs and estimate climate change impacts on future projects. The potential negative impacts of climate change include an impact on water supply as well as an impact on the balance of energy supply and demand. The potential positive impacts of climate change include increased river flows in some regions resulting in higher water supplies. This presentation also outlined emission management initiatives at Manitoba Hydro with reference to policy issues for Kyoto ratification, export rates with environmental premiums, domestic emission trading, and demand-side management. Targeted measures such as wind power, landfill gas and hydrogen were also outlined. 10 figs

  20. The impact of climate change on hydro-electricity generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hydropower is the leading source of electrical production in many countries. It is a clean and renewable source and certainly will continue to play an important role in the future energy supply. However, the effects of climate change on this valuable resource remain questionable. In order to identify the potential initiatives that the hydropower industry may undertake, it is important to determine the current state of knowledge of the impacts of climate change on hydrological variables at regional and local scales. Usually, the following steps are taken. First, general circulation models (GCMs) are used to simulate future climate under assumed greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Then, different techniques (statistical downscaling/regional climate models) are applied to downscale the GCM outputs to the appropriate scales of hydrological models. Finally, hydrologic models are employed to simulate the effects of climate change at regional and local scales. Outputs from these models serve as inputs to water management models that give more details about hydropower production. In the present study, realized by OURANOS upon the request of CEATI, a critical review of the methods used to determine impact of climate change on water resources and hydropower generation is carried out. The major results from recent studies worldwide are reported and future scientific actions to better understand climate change impacts on the hydrological regime are identified. The study is expected to provide direction for the hydropower industry to mitigate the impacts of climate change. (author)

  1. Learning to Adapt. Organisational Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Analysis of human adaptation to climate change should be based on realistic models of adaptive behaviour at the level of organisations and individuals. The paper sets out a framework for analysing adaptation to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in business organisations with new evidence presented from empirical research into adaptation in nine case-study companies. It argues that adaptation to climate change has many similarities with processes of organisational learning. The paper suggests that business organisations face a number of obstacles in learning how to adapt to climate change impacts, especially in relation to the weakness and ambiguity of signals about climate change and the uncertainty about benefits flowing from adaptation measures. Organisations rarely adapt 'autonomously', since their adaptive behaviour is influenced by policy and market conditions, and draws on resources external to the organisation. The paper identifies four adaptation strategies that pattern organisational adaptive behaviour

  2. Comparing Forecasts of the Global Impacts of Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper utilizes the predictions of several Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models and the Global Impact Model to create forecasts of the global market impacts from climate change. The forecasts of market impacts in 2100 vary considerably depending on climate scenarios and climate impact sensitivity. The models do concur that tropical nations will be hurt, temperate nations will be barely affected, and high latitude nations will benefit. Although the size of these effects varies a great deal across models, the beneficial and harmful effects are offsetting, so that the net impact on the globe is relatively small in almost all outcomes. Looking only at market impacts, the forecasts suggest that while the global net benefits of abatement are small, the distribution of damages suggests a large equity problem that could be addressed through a compensation program. The large uncertainty surrounding these forecasts further suggests that continued monitoring of both the climate and impacts is worthwhile

  3. Climate change impacts and adaptation : a Canadian perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book summarizes the research that has been conducted in Canada over the past five years on the issue of climate change impacts on key sectors such as water resources, agriculture, forestry, fisheries, coastal zones, transportation, and human health and well-being. The book refers to the growing evidence that climate change is occurring. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) believes that these changes have already contributed to increases in annual precipitation, cloud cover and extreme temperatures over the last 50 years. It suggests that it in order to develop an effective strategy for adaptation, it is necessary to understand the vulnerability of each sector to climate change in terms of the nature of climate change, the climatic sensitivity of the region being considered, and the capacity to adapt to the changes. Adaptation will require a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in order to lower the rate of climate change. Problems associated with water resources include water quality issues that relate to water shortages from droughts, or excesses from floods. The impacts of climate change on agriculture will vary depending on precipitation changes, soil conditions, and land use. Some studies have suggested that higher temperatures would benefit the forestry sector by improving the growth rate of trees, but the increase in the frequency and severity of moisture stress and forest disturbances would create other problems. Adaptations in the fisheries sector may have implications for the water resources, transportation, tourism and human health sectors. The impact of climate change in the coastal zone may include changes in water levels, wave patterns, storm surges, and thickness of seasonal ice cover. The areas that seem most vulnerable to climate change in the transportation sector include northern ice roads, Great Lakes shipping, coastal infrastructure threatened by sea-level rise, and infrastructure located on permafrost

  4. Climate Change Impact Assessments for International Market Systems (CLIMARK)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, J. A.; Andresen, J.; Black, J.; Bujdoso, G.; Chmielewski, F.; Kirschke, D.; Kurlus, R.; Liszewska, M.; Loveridge, S.; Niedzwiedz, T.; Nizalov, D.; Rothwell, N.; Tan, P.; Ustrnul, Z.; von Witzke, H.; Zavalloni, C.; Zhao, J.; Zhong, S.

    2012-12-01

    The vast majority of climate change impact assessments evaluate how local or regional systems and processes may be affected by a future climate. Alternative strategies that extend beyond the local or regional scale are needed when assessing the potential impacts of climate change on international market systems, including agricultural commodities. These industries have multiple production regions that are distributed worldwide and are likely to be differentially impacted by climate change. Furthermore, for many industries and market systems, especially those with long-term climate-dependent investments, temporal dynamics need to be incorporated into the assessment process, including changing patterns of international trade, consumption and production, and evolving adaptation strategies by industry stakeholder groups. A framework for conducting climate change assessments for international market systems, developed as part of the CLIMARK (Climate Change and International Markets) project is outlined, and progress toward applying the framework for an impact assessment for the international tart cherry industry is described. The tart cherry industry was selected for analysis in part because tart cherries are a perennial crop requiring long-term investments by the producer. Components of the project include the preparation of fine resolution climate scenarios, evaluation of phenological models for diverse production regions, the development of a yield model for tart cherry production, new methods for incorporating individual decision making and adaptation options into impact assessments, and modification of international trade models for use in impact studies. Innovative aspects of the project include linkages between model components and evaluation of the mega-uncertainty surrounding the assessment outcomes. Incorporation of spatial and temporal dynamics provides a more comprehensive evaluation of climate change impacts and an assessment product of potentially greater

  5. Methodologies for assessing socio-economic impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Much of the studies on climate change impacts have focused on physical and biological impacts, yet a knowledge of the social and economic impacts of climate change is likely to have a greater impact on the public and on policymakers. A conventional assessment of the impacts of climate change begins with scenarios of future climate, commonly derived from global climate models translated to a regional scale. Estimates of biophysical conditions provided by such scenarios provide a basis for analyses of human impacts, usually considered sector by sector. The scenario approach, although having considerable merit and appeal, has some noteworthy limitations. It encourages consideration of only a small set of scenarios, requires bold assumptions to be made about adjustments in human systems, provides little direct analysis of sensitivities of human social and economic systems to climate perturbations, and usually invokes the assumption that all factors other than climate are stable and have no synergistic effects on human systems. Conventional studies concentrate on average climate, yet climate is inherently variable. A common response to this situation is to propose further development of climate models, but this is not a sufficient or necessary condition for good and useful assessments of impacts on human activities. Different approaches to socioeconomic impact analysis are needed, and approaches should be considered that include identification of sensitivities in a social or ecological system, identification of critical threshold levels or critical speeds of change in variables, and exploration of alternative methodologies such as process studies, spatial and temporal analogues, and socio-economic systems modelling. 5 refs., 3 figs

  6. Vulnerability and adaptation to potential impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate in Kenya is controlled by the seasonal southward and northward movements of the Inter-Tropical Convergence zone (ITCZ).The effects of ITCZ produces two rainy seasons namely the 'long rains' in April/May and the 'short rains' in October/November. Following the build up of greenhouse gases such as carborn dioxide and methane in the earth's atmosphere, a variety of changes is expected in climatic conditions. The study analyses the sensivity of the lower Tana Basin to climate change while specific objectives include: to determine the effects of climate change on water supply in Tana River Basin; to assess the posible effect of climate change on the ground water resourse in the basin; to make some suggestions on possible adaptation measures that may be adopted to cope with the possible impacts of climate change for the Tana Basin

  7. A hybrid approach to incorporating climate change and variability into climate scenario for impact assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Gebretsadik, Yohannes; Strzepek, Kenneth; Schlosser, C. Adam

    2014-01-01

    Traditional 'delta-change' approach of scenario generation for climate change impact assessment to water resources strongly depends on the selected base-case observed historical climate conditions that the climate shocks are to be super-imposed. This method disregards the combined effect of climate change and the inherent hydro-climatological variability in the system. Here we demonstrated a hybrid uncertainty approach in which uncertainties in historical climate variability are combined with...

  8. Climate Change: Socio-Economic impacts and violent conflict

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ierland EC; Klaassen MG; Nierop T; van der Wusten H; PB-NOP; LUW

    1996-01-01

    This report contains a literature study on the socio economic impacts of climate change and the possibilities of violent conflicts enhanced by the greenhouse effect. The socio economic impacts are classified according to the economic sectors in chapter 2 of the study. The impacts on property, ecos

  9. Climate change and health: impacts, vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjellstrom, Tord; Weaver, Haylee J

    2009-01-01

    Global climate change is progressing and health impacts have been observed in a number of countries, including Australia. The main health impacts will be due to direct heat exposure, extreme weather, air pollution, reduced local food production, food- and vectorborne infectious diseases and mental stress. The issue is one of major public health importance. Adaptation to reduce the effects of climate change involves many different sectors to minimise negative health outcomes. Wide-scale mitigation is also required, in order to reduce the effects of climate change. In addition, future urban design must be modified to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change. Strategies for mitigation and adaptation can create co-benefits for both individual and community health, by reducing non-climate-related health hazard exposures and by encouraging health promoting behaviours and lifestyles. PMID:19261209

  10. Impacts of climate change on resource management in the north

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A Canada/USA symposium was held to communicate with people of the Arctic regions of North America about current issues in climate and climatic change; to promote dialogue between northern groups about various aspects of the climate problem relevant to northern people; and to discuss and formulate recommendations regarding management of northern resources that might be affected by global warming and associated regional climatic change. Papers were presented on the impacts of climatic change on water resources and hydrology, snow cover and sea ice, forest ecosystems, wildlife and marine resources, offshore petroleum operations, engineered structures, and the socio-economic system in the north. Arctic research programs and international initiatives on climatic change were also described. Separate abstracts have been prepared for 21 papers from this symposium

  11. Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change on Central American Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, J. M.; Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.

    2011-12-01

    Agriculture is a vital component of Central America's economy. Poor crop yields and harvest reliability can produce food insecurity, malnutrition, and conflict. Regional climate models (RCMs) and agricultural models have the potential to greatly enhance the efficiency of Central American agriculture and water resources management under both current and future climates. A series of numerical experiments was conducted using Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to evaluate the ability of RCMs to reproduce the current climate of Central America and assess changes in temperature and precipitation under multiple future climate scenarios. Control simulations were thoroughly compared to a variety of observational datasets, including local weather station data, gridded meteorological data, and high-resolution satellite-based precipitation products. Future climate simulations were analyzed for both mean shifts in climate and changes in climate variability, including extreme events (droughts, heat waves, floods). To explore the impacts of changing climate on maize, bean, and rice yields in Central America, RCM output was used to force the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer Model (DSSAT). These results were synthesized to create climate change impacts predictions for Central American agriculture that explicitly account for evolving distributions of precipitation and temperature extremes.

  12. Extended impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Incorporates wellbeing into understandings of climate change impacts on health. • Considers a range of secondary impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing. • Examines co-benefits and dis-benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies for health and wellbeing. • Emphasises the spatially and socially differentiated repercussions of adaptation and mitigation measures. - Abstract: Anthropogenic climate change is progressively transforming the environment despite political and technological attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to tackle global warming. Here we propose that greater insight and understanding of the health-related impacts of climate change can be gained by integrating the positivist approaches used in public health and epidemiology, with holistic social science perspectives on health in which the concept of ‘wellbeing’ is more explicitly recognised. Such an approach enables us to acknowledge and explore a wide range of more subtle, yet important health-related outcomes of climate change. At the same time, incorporating notions of wellbeing enables recognition of both the health co-benefits and dis-benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies across different population groups and geographical contexts. The paper recommends that future adaptation and mitigation policies seek to ensure that benefits are available for all since current evidence suggests that they are spatially and socially differentiated, and their accessibility is dependent on a range of contextually specific socio-cultural factors

  13. Regional Scale Analyses of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfe, D. W.; Hayhoe, K.

    2006-12-01

    New statistically downscaled climate modeling techniques provide an opportunity for improved regional analysis of climate change impacts on agriculture. Climate modeling outputs can often simultaneously meet the needs of those studying impacts on natural as well as managed ecosystems. Climate outputs can be used to drive existing forest or crop models, or livestock models (e.g., temperature-humidity index model predicting dairy milk production) for improved information on regional impact. High spatial resolution climate forecasts, combined with knowledge of seasonal temperatures or rainfall constraining species ranges, can be used to predict shifts in suitable habitat for invasive weeds, insects, and pathogens, as well as cash crops. Examples of climate thresholds affecting species range and species composition include: minimum winter temperature, duration of winter chilling (vernalization) hours (e.g., hours below 7.2 C), frost-free period, and frequency of high temperature stress days in summer. High resolution climate outputs can also be used to drive existing integrated pest management models predicting crop insect and disease pressure. Collectively, these analyses can be used to test hypotheses or provide insight into the impact of future climate change scenarios on species range shifts and threat from invasives, shifts in crop production zones, and timing and regional variation in economic impacts.

  14. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  15. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  16. Little auks buffer the impact of current Arctic climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grémillet, David; Welcker, Jorg; Karnovsky, Nina J.;

    2012-01-01

    Climate models predict a multi-degree warming of the North Atlantic in the 21st century. A research priority is to understand the impact of such changes upon marine organisms. With 40-80 million individuals, planktivorous little auks (Alle alle) are an essential component of pelagic food webs in...... this region that are potentially highly susceptible to climatic effects. Using an integrative study of their behaviour, physiology and fitness at three study sites, we evaluated the impact of ocean warming on little auks across the Greenland Sea in 2005-2007. Contrary to our hypothesis, the birds...... responded to a wide range of sea surface temperatures via plasticity of their foraging behaviour, allowing them to maintain their fitness levels unchanged. Predicted effects of climate change are significantly attenuated by such plasticity, confounding attempts to forecast future impacts of climate change...

  17. Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper deals with the social and economic dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation in Italy. The ultimate aim of the paper is to provide policy makers and experts with a conceptual framework, as well as methodological and operational tools for dealing with climate change impacts and adaptation from an economic perspective. In order to do so, first a conceptual and theoretical framework of the economic assessment of climate change impacts is presented and the state of the art about impact assessment studies is briefly analysed. Then, the Italian case is taken into account, by underlying the main impacts and adaptation challenges that are likely to be implied by climate change in the next decades. The analysis of the Italian case is particularly addressed through the description of the methodology and results of two case studies. The first one, dealing mainly with impact assessment, is carried out at the national level and is part of a EC funded project on Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE). The second one is carried out at the local level and focuses on sea level rise impacts and adaptation in a plane south of Rome. The two case studies allow to propose simple and flexible methodologies for the economic impact assessment and the economic valuation of adaptation strategies

  18. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R.

    2009-12-01

    Adaptation measures improve our ability to cope with or avoid harmful climate impacts and take advantage of beneficial ones, now and as climate varies and changes. Adaptation and mitigation are necessary elements of an effective response to climate change. Adaptation options also have the potential to moderate harmful impacts of current and future climate variability and change. The Global Climate Change Impacts Report identifies examples of adaptation-related actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change, as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change such as urban air pollution and heat waves. Some adaptation options that are currently being pursued in various regions and sectors to deal with climate change and/or other environmental issues are identified in this report. A range of adaptation responses can be employed to reduce risks through redesign or relocation of infrastructure, sustainability of ecosystem services, increased redundancy of critical social services, and operational improvements. Adapting to climate change is an evolutionary process and requires both analytic and deliberative decision support. Many of the climate change impacts described in the report have economic consequences. A significant part of these consequences flow through public and private insurance markets, which essentially aggregate and distribute society's risk. However, in most cases, there is currently insufficient robust information to evaluate the practicality, efficiency, effectiveness, costs, or benefits of adaptation measures, highlighting a need for research. Adaptation planning efforts such as that being conducted in New York City and the Colorado River will be described. Climate will be continually changing, moving at a relatively rapid rate, outside the range to which society has adapted in the past. The precise amounts and timing of these changes will not be known with certainty. The

  19. Climate Change Impacts on the Mediterranean Coastal Zones

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main objective of this paper is to highlight the potential impacts of changes in climatic conditions and in related variables, which could affect coastal areas, as well as to identify potential response measures which could reduce the vulnerability of coastal systems and enhance their adaptability. Attention will be focused on the Mediterranean basin which is in the climate change context, a zone of great interest and of recent concern at the world scale by some features: strong ocean-atmosphere-land interactions; contrast between the small size of the sea and its significant role in the global climate system; possibility to use it at a scaled down model for the monitoring of environmental and climate evolution; critical environmental conditions of some areas and high human pressure; and strong geographical, socio-economic and climatic contrasts. The first section provides an introduction to the climate change issue, the past trends and the projections of future climate at the global scale. The second section presents the main features of the Mediterranean basin and some relevant regional projections of future climatic variables. The third section focuses on the main likely impacts on the Mediterranean coasts. Different coastal systems - such as islands, deltas, estuaries, coastal wetlands and coastal cities - and different climate change impacts - such as inundation, increased flooding, salinisation, salt water intrusion, desertification, and increased erosion - are addressed in this section. Finally the last section brings some conclusions and identify some strategies of adaptations and directions for future research aimed at improving our ability to predict and assess the local impacts of climate change in the region

  20. Assessment of the Health Impacts of Climate Change in Kiribati

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lachlan McIver

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Kiribati—a low-lying, resource-poor Pacific atoll nation—is one of the most vulnerable countries in the World to the impacts of climate change, including the likely detrimental effects on human health. We describe the preparation of a climate change and health adaptation plan for Kiribati carried out by the World Health Organization and the Kiribati Ministry of Health and Medical Services, including an assessment of risks to health, sources of vulnerability and suggestions for highest priority adaptation responses. This paper identifies advantages and disadvantages in the process that was followed, lays out a future direction of climate change and health adaptation work in Kiribati, and proposes lessons that may be applicable to other small, developing island nations as they prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change on health.

  1. Climate change in the oceans: Human impacts and responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, Edward H; Bassett, Hannah R

    2015-11-13

    Although it has far-reaching consequences for humanity, attention to climate change impacts on the ocean lags behind concern for impacts on the atmosphere and land. Understanding these impacts, as well as society's diverse perspectives and multiscale responses to the changing oceans, requires a correspondingly diverse body of scholarship in the physical, biological, and social sciences and humanities. This can ensure that a plurality of values and viewpoints is reflected in the research that informs climate policy and may enable the concerns of maritime societies and economic sectors to be heard in key adaptation and mitigation discussions. PMID:26564848

  2. Climate change in the oceans: Human impacts and responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, Edward H.; Bassett, Hannah R.

    2015-11-01

    Although it has far-reaching consequences for humanity, attention to climate change impacts on the ocean lags behind concern for impacts on the atmosphere and land. Understanding these impacts, as well as society’s diverse perspectives and multiscale responses to the changing oceans, requires a correspondingly diverse body of scholarship in the physical, biological, and social sciences and humanities. This can ensure that a plurality of values and viewpoints is reflected in the research that informs climate policy and may enable the concerns of maritime societies and economic sectors to be heard in key adaptation and mitigation discussions.

  3. Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Mediterranean Irrigated Farming Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Dono, Gabriele; Cortignani, Raffaele; Doro, Luca; Ledda, Luigi; Roggero, PierPaolo; Giraldo, Luca; Severini, Simone

    2011-01-01

    In the agricultural sector, climate change (CC) affects multiple weather variables at different stages of crop cycles. CC may influence the mean level or affect the distribution of events (e.g., rainfall, temperature). This work evaluates the economic impact of CC-related changes in multiple climatic components, and the resulting uncertainty. For this purpose, a three-stage discrete stochastic programming model is used to represents farm sector of an irrigated area of Italy and to examine the...

  4. Climate change impacts and implications for tourism in protected areas

    OpenAIRE

    Remus Ion Hornoiu

    2014-01-01

    Tourism, as a distinct field of activity, is strongly linked to climate change: in a positive way - by providing the necessary resources and factors to reduce the action of climate change through the use of alternative energy technologies with low environmental impact, and the controlled development of tourist flows – and a negative one – through energy consumption, visitors transportation, the quantities of waste. Among the solutions mentioned, the present research has focused on protected a...

  5. Finnish food chain impacts on climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Kurppa, Sirpa; Virtanen, Yrjö

    2010-01-01

    The evaluation of the food chain’s environmental impacts was conducted using an environmentalaccounting model developed specifically for the Finnish food chain. The model is based on production and environmental impact data from year 2005. The model considers both Finnish production and Finnish imports in addition to their transport. The targets of the evaluation were the environmental impacts, in 2005, stemming from production. Environmental impacts of the end-use phase were not assessed....

  6. Identifying potential local climate change impacts and adaptation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The subjects discussed in this presentation concern developing resilience to climate extremes and adapting to climate change as local issues; examples of two approaches in New Zealand to helping local groups identify impacts and adaptation options; providing guidance to help councils take a risk management approach; regional scenario numbers for assessments; local workshops in Eastern Regions; and resource kits. The presentation is summarized as follows: Adaptation to climate change is a local issue; Successful adaptation depends on local councils, farmers and industry; Guidance is now available in NZ to help councils address climate change impacts and adaptation within their operations, planning and risk management frameworks; Various approaches are being taken to effectively communicate this information; Personal interactions between local community members, council staff and scientists help with uptake; Approaches which help people draw on their own local knowledge and experience are appreciated

  7. Assessing the impact of climate change on extreme sea levels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Full text: Assessments of the impact of climate change on extreme sea levels along parts of the Victorian coast will be presented. The method involves identifying a large population of storm surge events in tide gauge records along the stretch of coastline of interest and modelling each event with a hydrodynamic model. Conditions under future climate regimes are considered by perturbing the atmospheric boundary conditions of the model in accordance with wind speed projections from climate models. Extreme value analysis is applied to the output of the hydrodynamic model to generate probabilities and return periods for storm surge heights. A Monte-Carlo approach is used to combine these heights with tide heights. Finally estimates of future mean sea level rise from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are added in. Initial work on the possible impact of changes in extreme sea levels on the risk of inundation of low lying coastal land will also be presented

  8. Climate Change Impacts on Central China and Adaptation Measures

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    REN Yong-Jian; CUI Jiang-Xue; WAN Su-Qin; LIU Min; CHEN Zheng-Hong; LIAO Yu-Fang; WANG Ji-Jun

    2013-01-01

    In Central China, the obvious climate change has happened along with global warming. Based on the observational analysis, the climate change has significant effects, both positive and negative, in every field within the study area, and with the harmful effects far more prevalent. Under the scenario A1B, it is reported that temperature, precipitation, days of heat waves and extreme precipitation intensity will increase at respective rates of 0.38◦C per decade, 12.6 mm per decade, 6.4 d and 47 mm per decade in the 21st century. It is widely believed that these climate changes in the future will result in some apparent impacts on agro-ecosystems, water resources, wetland ecosystem, forest ecosystem, human health, energy sectors and other sensitive fields in Central China. Due to the limited scientific knowledge and researches, there are still some shortages in the climate change assessment methodologies and many uncertainties in the climate prediction results. Therefore, it is urgent and essential to increase the studies of the regional climate change adaptation, extend the research fields, and enhance the studies in the extreme weather and climate events to reduce the uncertainties of the climate change assessments.

  9. Modeling Impacts of Climate Change on Giant Panda Habitat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa Songer

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca are one of the most widely recognized endangered species globally. Habitat loss and fragmentation are the main threats, and climate change could significantly impact giant panda survival. We integrated giant panda habitat information with general climate models (GCMs to predict future geographic distribution and fragmentation of giant panda habitat. Results support a major general prediction of climate change—a shift of habitats towards higher elevation and higher latitudes. Our models predict climate change could reduce giant panda habitat by nearly 60% over 70 years. New areas may become suitable outside the current geographic range but much of these areas is far from the current giant panda range and only 15% fall within the current protected area system. Long-term survival of giant pandas will require the creation of new protected areas that are likely to support suitable habitat even if the climate changes.

  10. Climate Change Impacts on Migration in the Vulnerable Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Nazan; Incealtin, Gamze; Kurnaz, M. Levent; Şengün Ucal, Meltem

    2014-05-01

    This work focuses on the economic, demographic and environmental drivers of migration related with the sustainable development in underdeveloped and developed countries, which are the most vulnerable to the climate change impacts through the Climate-Development Modeling including climate modeling and panel logit data analysis. We have studied some countries namely Bangladesh, Netherlands, Morocco, Malaysia, Ethiopia and Bolivia. We have analyzed these countries according to their economic, demographic and environmental indicators related with the determinants of migration, and we tried to indicate that their conditions differ according to all these factors concerning with the climate change impacts. This modeling covers some explanatory variables, which have the relationship with the migration, including GDP per capita, population, temperature and precipitation, which indicate the seasonal differences according to the years, the occurrence of natural hazards over the years, coastal location of countries, permanent cropland areas and fish capture which represents the amount of capturing over the years. We analyzed that whether there is a relationship between the migration and these explanatory variables. In order to achieve sustainable development by preventing or decreasing environmental migration due to climate change impacts or related other factors, these countries need to maintain economic, social, political, demographic, and in particular environmental performance. There are some significant risks stemming from climate change, which is not under control. When the economic and environmental conditions are considered, we have to regard climate change to be the more destructive force for those who are less defensible against all of these risks and impacts of uncontrolled climate change. This work was supported by the BU Research Fund under the project number 6990. One of the authors (MLK) was partially supported by Mercator-IPC Fellowship Program.

  11. Impact of Climate Change and Variability on Crop Productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, A. K.; Song, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change, in terms of increasing levels of CO2, change in temperature and precipitation pattern, is directly influencing crop production through biophysical and phenology effects. At the same time crop production will also influence thermal energy and water exchange between land surface and atmosphere, and thus impact regional and global climate at long term time scale. Therefore, to satisfy the growing need of food production and realize sustainable agriculture under climate change, it is necessary to understand the complex interaction between crop productivity and climate change. While many research studies have been carried out on this area, there are still some unanswered key questions: How will changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) and atmospheric CO2 affect the regional crop yields for each crop types? Will there be a positive, negative, or insignificant interaction between crop yields and climate change? In which climate region(s) will the interaction be most pronounced? How rain-fed crop production will influence water balance between land surface and atmosphere, and thus its production potential? A land surface model with dynamic simulation of crop component (ISAM) has been developed and applied to address these questions. The ISAM model is a process-based, biogeophysical and biogeochemical model, which calculates dynamic crop growth processes as well as carbon, nitrogen, water and energy exchanges between soil, crop-system and atmosphere. The crop-system considered in current version of the ISAM includes corn and soybean. This study will specifically focus on the agricultural regions in the US. The potential productivity of these crops will be assessed under the various atmospheric CO2 and climate change conditions. This study will help to quantify the impact of various environmental factors on row crops and to better understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of crop yields under different climate change conditions.

  12. Impacts of Climate Change on the Climate Extremes of the Middle East

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turp, M. Tufan; Collu, Kamil; Deler, F. Busra; Ozturk, Tugba; Kurnaz, M. Levent

    2016-04-01

    The Middle East is one of the most vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change. Because of the importance of the region and its vulnerability to global climate change, the studies including the investigation of projected changes in the climate of the Middle East play a crucial role in order to struggle with the negative effects of climate change. This research points out the relationship between the climate change and climate extremes indices in the Middle East and it investigates the changes in the number of extreme events as described by the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). As part of the study, the regional climate model (RegCM4.4) of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) is run to obtain future projection data. This research has been supported by Boǧaziçi University Research Fund Grant Number 10421.

  13. Climate change impact on river flows in Chitral watershed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The impact of climate change has always been very important for water resources in the world. In countries like Pakistan where different weather conditions exist, the effects of climate change can be more crucial. Generally, the climate changes are considered in terms of global warming i.e. increase in the average temperature of earth's near surface air. The global warming can have a strong impact on river flows in Pakistan. This may be due to the melting of snow and glaciers at a higher rate and changes in precipitation patterns. Glaciers in Pakistan cover about 13,680 km/sup 2/, which is 13% of the mountainous regions of the Upper Indus Basin. Glacier and Snow melt water from these glaciers contributes significantly to the river flows in Pakistan. Due to climate change, the changes in temperature and the amount of precipitation could have diversified effects on river flows of arid and semi-arid regions of Pakistan. This paper reviews the existing research studies on climate change impact on water resources of Pakistan. The past trend of river flows in Pakistan has been discussed with respect to the available data. Further, different projections about future climate changes in terms of glacier melting and changes in temperature and precipitation have also been taken into consideration in order to qualitatively assess the future trend of river flows in Pakistan. As a case study, the flows were generated for the Chitral watershed using UBC Watershed Model. Model was calibrated for the year 2002, which is an average flow year. Model results show good agreement between simulated and observed flows. UBC watershed model was applied to a climate change scenario of 1 deg. C increase in temperature and 15% decrease in glaciated area. Results of the study reveal that the flows were decreased by about 4.2 %. (author)

  14. Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production in Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.; Spano, D.

    2011-12-01

    The agricultural sector in Nigeria is particularly important for the country's food security, natural resources, and growth agenda. The cultivable areas comprise more than 70% of the total area; however, the cultivated area is about the 35% of the total area. The most important components in the food basket of the nation are cereals and tubers, which include rice, maize, corn, millet, sorghum, yam, and cassava. These crops represent about 80% of the total agricultural product in Nigeria (from NPAFS). The major crops grown in the country can be divided into food crops (produced for consumption) and export products. Despite the importance of the export crops, the primary policy of agriculture is to make Nigeria self-sufficient in its food and fiber requirements. The projected impacts of future climate change on agriculture and water resources are expected to be adverse and extensive in these area. This implies the need for actions and measures to adapt to climate change impacts, and especially as they affect agriculture, the primary sector for Nigerian economy. In the framework of the Project Climate Risk Analysis in Nigeria (founded by World Bank Contract n.7157826), a study was made to assess the potential impact of climate change on the main crops that characterize Nigerian agriculture. The DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5 was used for the analysis. Crop simulation models included in DSSAT are tools that simulate physiological processes of crop growth, development and production by combining genetic crop characteristics and environmental (soil and weather) conditions. For each selected crop, the models were calibrated to evaluate climate change impacts on crop production. The climate data used for the analysis are derived by the Regional Circulation Model COSMO-CLM, from 1971 to 2065, at 8 km of spatial resolution. The RCM model output was "perturbed" with 10 Global Climate Models to have

  15. Estimating the impacts of climate change on Brazilian regions

    OpenAIRE

    Azzoni, Carlos; Haddad, Eduardo

    2011-01-01

    An integrated approach projects the economic impacts from climate change and adaptation and mitigation policies, explicitly considering the various territorial scales in Brazil (macro-regions, states, micro-regions, and networks of cities). A computable general equilibrium (GCE) model was used to simulate two climate change-free scenarios regarding the future of Brazil’s economy that are consistent with the global economic development trends under IPCC’s scenarios A2 and B2. Climate shock...

  16. Adapting to Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vimont, D.; Liebl, D.

    2012-12-01

    The mission of the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI; http://www.wicci.wisc.edu) is to assess the impacts of climate change on Wisconsin's natural, human, and built environments; and to assist in developing, recommending, and implementing climate adaptation strategies in Wisconsin. WICCI originated in 2007 as a partnership between the University of Wisconsin Nelson Institute and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, and has since grown to include numerous other state, public, and private institutions. In 2011, WICCI released its First Assessment Report, which documents the efforts of over 200 individuals around the state in assessing vulnerability and estimating the risk that regional climate change poses to Wisconsin. The success of WICCI as an organization can be traced to its existence as a partnership between academic and state institutions, and as a boundary organization that catalyzes cross-disciplinary efforts between science and policy. WICCI's organizational structure and its past success at assessing climate impacts in Wisconsin will be briefly discussed. As WICCI moves into its second phase, it is increasing its emphasis on the second part of its mission: development, and implementation of adaptation strategies. Towards these goals WICCI has expanded its organizational structure to include a Communications and Outreach Committee that further ensures a necessary two-way communication of information between stakeholders / decision makers, and scientific efforts. WICCI is also increasing its focus on place-based efforts that include climate change information as one part of an integrated effort at sustainable development. The talk will include a discussion of current outreach and education efforts, as well as future directions for WICCI efforts.

  17. Impacts of climate change on runoffs in East Azerbaijan, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarghami, Mahdi; Abdi, Amin; Babaeian, Iman; Hassanzadeh, Yousef; Kanani, Reza

    2011-08-01

    Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns have serious impacts on the quantity and quality of water supply, especially in arid regions. In recent years, frequent climatic droughts have threatened the water supply in East Azerbaijan Province, Iran. Because of the increasing demand for water, studying the potential climate change and its impacts on water resources is necessary. To predict the climate change based on the General Circulation Models (GCM), the successful downscaling tool of LARS-WG is applied. This stochastic weather generator downscaled the climate change of six synoptic stations in the province by using the HADCM3 model and three emission scenarios, A1B, A2 and B1, with the horizons 2020, 2055 and 2090. The research outcomes, based on the A2 scenario, show an average annual temperature rise of ~ 2.3 °C and an annual precipitation reduction of ~ 3% in the middle of this century. These changes shift the climate of the province from semi-arid to arid based on the De Martonne aridity index. Using the artificial neural network (ANN), a model was then built to simulate the effects of climate change on the runoffs in three watersheds; the results showed dramatic reductions in the flows. The results of this study could advise the designers and managers of this region to take suitable actions in securing the water supply.

  18. Health Care Facilities Resilient to Climate Change Impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaclyn Paterson

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change will increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events and create risks that will impact health care facilities. Health care facilities will need to assess climate change risks and adopt adaptive management strategies to be resilient, but guidance tools are lacking. In this study, a toolkit was developed for health care facility officials to assess the resiliency of their facility to climate change impacts. A mixed methods approach was used to develop climate change resiliency indicators to inform the development of the toolkit. The toolkit consists of a checklist for officials who work in areas of emergency management, facilities management and health care services and supply chain management, a facilitator’s guide for administering the checklist, and a resource guidebook to inform adaptation. Six health care facilities representing three provinces in Canada piloted the checklist. Senior level officials with expertise in the aforementioned areas were invited to review the checklist, provide feedback during qualitative interviews and review the final toolkit at a stakeholder workshop. The toolkit helps health care facility officials identify gaps in climate change preparedness, direct allocation of adaptation resources and inform strategic planning to increase resiliency to climate change.

  19. Potential impacts of climatic change on European breeding birds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian Huntley

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Climatic change is expected to lead to changes in species' geographical ranges. Adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation require quantitative estimates of the magnitude, direction and rates of these potential changes. Such estimates are of greatest value when they are made for large ensembles of species and for extensive (sub-continental or continental regions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: For six climate scenarios for 2070-99 changes have been estimated for 431 European breeding bird species using models relating species' distributions in Europe to climate. Mean range centroid potentially shifted 258-882 km in a direction between 341 degrees (NNW and 45 degrees (NE, depending upon the climate scenario considered. Potential future range extent averaged 72-89% of the present range, and overlapped the present range by an average of 31-53% of the extent of the present range. Even if potential range changes were realised, the average number of species breeding per 50x50 km grid square would decrease by 6.8-23.2%. Many species endemic or near-endemic to Europe have little or no overlap between their present and potential future ranges; such species face an enhanced extinction risk as a consequence of climatic change. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Although many human activities exert pressures upon wildlife, the magnitude of the potential impacts estimated for European breeding birds emphasises the importance of climatic change. The development of adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation in the face of climatic change is an urgent need; such strategies must take into account quantitative evidence of potential climatic change impacts such as is presented here.

  20. Uncertainty in projected impacts of climate change on biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia, Raquel A.

    models, are shown to be affected by multiple uncertainties. Different model algorithms produce different outputs, as do alternative future climate models and scenarios of future emissions of greenhouse gases. Another uncertainty arises due to omission of species with small sample sizes, which are......, uncertainty is inherent to both projected climate changes and their effects on biodiversity, and needs to be understood before projections can be used. This thesis seeks to elucidate some of the uncertainties clouding assessments of biodiversity impacts from climate change, and explores ways to address them...... difficult to model. The effect of such bias against narrow-ranging species is often overlooked in assessments of biodiversity impacts, but our results for sub-Saharan African amphibians show that it trickles down to conservation strategies. Finally, assumptions about the climatic tolerance of species, their...

  1. Regional Climate Change Impacts in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayhoe, K.; Burkett, V.; Grimm, N.; McCarthy, J.; Miles, E.; Overpeck, J.; Shea, E.; Wuebbles, D.

    2009-05-01

    Climate change will affect one region differently from another. For that reason, the U.S. Unified Synthesis Product "Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States" broke down its assessment of climate change impacts on the country into 8 regions. Key highlights include: In the Northeast, agricultural production, including dairy, fruit, and maple syrup, will be increasingly affected as favorable climates shift northward. In the Southeast, accelerated sea-level rise and increased hurricane intensity will have serious impacts. In the Midwest, under higher emissions scenarios, significant reductions in Great Lakes water levels will impact shipping, infrastructure, beaches, and ecosystems. In the Great Plains, projected increases in temperature, evaporation, and drought frequency exacerbate concerns regarding the region's declining water resources. In the Southwest, water supplies will become increasingly scarce, calling for trade-offs among competing uses, and potentially leading to conflict. In the Northwest, salmon and other cold-water species will experience additional stresses as a result of rising water temperatures and declining summer streamflows. In Alaska, thawing permafrost damages roads, runways, water and sewer systems, and other infrastructure. And in the U.S. islands in the Caribbean and Pacific, climate changes affecting coastal and marine ecosystems will have major implications for tourism and fisheries. In addition, significant sea-level rise and storm surge will affect coastal cities and ecosystems around the nation; low-lying and subsiding areas are most vulnerable.

  2. Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fred Fokko Hattermann

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim of our study is to quantify the impacts of climate change on hydrology in the large river basins in Germany (Rhine, Elbe, Danube, Weser and Ems and thereby giving the range of impact uncertainty created by the most recent regional climate projections. The study shows mainly results for the A1B SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario scenario by comparing the reference period 1981–2010 and the scenario periods 2031–2060 and 2061–2090 and using climate projections of a combination of 4 Global Climate Models (GCMs and 12 Regional Climate Models (RCMs as climate driver. The outcome is compared against impacts driven by a more recent RCP (Representative Emission Pathways scenario by using data of a statistical RCM. The results indicate that more robust conclusions can be drawn for some river basins, especially the Rhine and Danube basins, while diversity of results leads to higher uncertainty in the other river basins. The results also show that hydrology is very sensitive to changes in climate and effects of a general increase in precipitation can even be over-compensated by an increase in evapotranspiration. The decrease of runoff in late summer shown in most results can be an indicator for more pronounced droughts under scenario conditions.

  3. Climatic Change Impact on Water Resources - A Systems Review

    OpenAIRE

    Z. W. Kundzewicz; Somlyody, L.

    1993-01-01

    Global climate change related to natural and anthropogenic processes has been the topic of many research projects and high-level debates. Despite the ongoing research efforts, the climate predictions cannot be rated any better than speculative or possible scenarios whose probability of occurrence is, at the present stage, impossible to assess. One of the most significant impacts of the "greenhouse effect" is anticipated to be on water resources management, including different elements of the ...

  4. Climate Change Impact Assessment of Food- and Waterborne Diseases

    OpenAIRE

    Jan C. Semenza; Herbst, Susanne; Rechenburg, Andrea; Jonathan E. Suk; Höser, Christoph; Schreiber, Christiane; Kistemann, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The PubMed and ScienceDirect bibliographic databases were searched for the period of 1998–2009 to evaluate the impact of climatic and environmental determinants on food- and waterborne diseases. The authors assessed 1,642 short and concise sentences (key facts), which were extracted from 722 relevant articles and stored in a climate change knowledge base. Key facts pertaining to temperature, precipitation, water, and food for 6 selected pathogens were scrutinized, evaluated, and compiled acco...

  5. Climate change impacts on runoff in West Africa: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roudier, P.; Ducharne, A.; Feyen, L.

    2014-07-01

    This review summarizes the impacts of climate change on runoff in West Africa, assesses the uncertainty in the projections and describes future research needs for the region. To do so, we constitute a meta-database made of 19 studies and 301 future runoff change values. The future tendency in streamflow developments is overall very uncertain (median of the 301 points is 0% and mean +5.2%), except for (i) the Gambia River, which exhibits a significant negative change (median = -4.5%), and (ii) the Sassandra and the Niger rivers, where the change is positive (+14.4% and +6.1%). A correlation analysis revealed that runoff changes are tightly linked to changes in rainfall (R = 0.49), and to a smaller extent also to changes in potential evapotranspiration. Other parameters than climate - such as the carbon effect on plant water efficiency, land use dynamics or water withdrawals - could also significantly impact on runoff, but they generally do not offset the effects of climate change. In view of the potential changes, the large uncertainty therein and the high vulnerability of the region to such changes, there is an urgent need for integrated studies that quantify the potential effects of these processes on water resources in West Africa and for more accuracy in climate models rainfall projections. We especially underline the lack of information concerning projections of future floods and droughts, and of interannual fluctuations in streamflow.

  6. IMPACT, VULNERABILITY AND INURING TO THE CLIMATE CHANGES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mazilu Mirela; Buce Gabriela; Ciobanu Mariana [University of Craiova, University Centre of Drobeta Turnu Severin, Mehedinti (Romania)

    2008-09-30

    The adverse effects of the climate changes caused or not by the human being are on the international politic agenda for more than a decade. All over the world the discussions on the climate changes are intensifying and heading new directions, with a larger opening. The climate changes were subject of the agenda of the most important regional and international meetings this year, many of these asking the ending with positive results of the U.N.O. Conference on Climate Changes that is taking place these days in Bali, between the 3rd and 14th of December 2007. The Bali Conference will give the possibility of getting involved in the future into the multilateral processes of climate change under the auspices of the United Nations and into the process of shaping a global approaching plan of the climate changes. The climate changes represent one of the major challenges in our century--a complex field about what we have to improve our knowledge and understanding in order to take immediate and correct actions for a lasting and efficient approach from the point of view of the costs and challenges in the climate changes field respecting the precaution and climate changes inuring principle. The inuring is a process which allows societies to learn to react to the risks associated to the climate changes. These risks are real and already present in many systems and essential sectors of the human existence--the hydrological resources, alimentary security and health. The inuring options are multiple and vary from the technical ones--protection against the water gown level or dwellings protected against the floods by being hanged up on pontoons--to the change of the behavior of the individuals, such as the reduce of the water or energy consumption and/or a more efficient consumption. Other strategies suppose: signaling systems of the meteorological phenomenon, improvements of the risk management, ways to assure and preserve the biodiversity in order to reduce the impact of the

  7. Climate change and its gendered impacts on agriculture in Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trung, P.T

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Studies have shown that Vietnam is one of the countries that most affected by climate change because of its geographical and natural conditions together with its fast but massive and unplanned urbanization. There are many research and studies that have been conducted to assess the impacts of climate change on different sectors in Vietnam. Agriculture plays an important role in the country’s economy in terms of poverty reduction, food security, employment and export but projected to be heavily affected because of sea level rise, floods or droughts etc. A large proportion of Vietnam’s population, especially women, involves with agricultural works and production. So, this paper using a gender perspective will examine possible impacts that climate change has been causing to women and men differently in order to propose some solutions for the facing problems. Since the paper only utilizes available resources, it can serve as a concept note for further works in the future.

  8. Climate Change Impacts of Irrigation on the Central High Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotterman, K. A.; Kendall, A. D.; Basso, B.; Hyndman, D. W.

    2015-12-01

    Since the 1940s, the High Plains Aquifer (HPA) has been pivotal for irrigation over the Central High Plains (CHP), a region spanning parts of five states in the central U.S.. Today after decades of over-pumping, many areas of the CHP are no longer able to irrigate due to localized depletion of the HPA. With a range of global climate models predicting an increase in temperature and decrease in growing-season precipitation for the CHP, demand for irrigation is likely to increase and exacerbate drawdown and depletion of the aquifer. Here we apply the Landscape Hydrology Model (LHM) coupled with the crop simulation model SALUS to simulate irrigation water use in response to historical climate and land use. This model is validated using historical groundwater levels. We then simulate future climate scenarios to predict how irrigation demand and water availability will alter the hydrology of the CHP. This study provides a predictive relationship of future irrigation demand linked to both climate change and agricultural management, and presents a modeling approach to answer two questions: How will future climate change affect irrigation demand? How will climate change and irrigation demand affect groundwater availability for the future? Different climate scenarios based on the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are used to simulate the impact of different projected future climate conditions through the year 2100. By examining predicted groundwater levels along with saturated thickness we analyze where irrigation is likely to be viable in the future and compare this to current irrigation extent.

  9. Projected impacts of climate change on marine fish and fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hollowed, Anne B.; Barange, Manuel; Beamish, Richard J.;

    2013-01-01

    ) implications for food security and associated changes; and (v) uncertainty and modelling skill assessment. Climate change will impact fish and shellfish, their fisheries, and fishery-dependent communities through a complex suite of linked processes. Integrated interdisciplinary research teams are forming in...... many regions to project these complex responses. National and international marine research organizations serve a key role in the coordination and integration of research to accelerate the production of projections of the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and to move towards a future where...

  10. The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Asia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Robert Mendelsohn

    2014-01-01

    Asian agriculture is responsible for two thirds of global agricultural GDP. There have been numerous studies exploring the impact of climate change on crops in speciifc locations in Asia but no study has yet analyzed crops across the entire continent. This study relies on a Ricardian study of China that estimated climate coefifcients for Chinese crops. These coefifcients are then used to interpolate potential climate damages across the continent. With carbon fertilization, the model predicts small aggregate effects with a 1.5°C warming but damages of about US$84 billion with 3°C warming. India is predicted to be especially vulnerable.

  11. Climate change impact on wetland forest plants of SNR Zasavica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Čavlović Dragana

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Wetlands are among the most vulnerable habitats on the planet. Very complex forest ecosystems are also parts of wetlands. Research and analysis of forest vegetation elements, leads to a conclusion about ecological conditions of wetlands. The aim of the paper is detail forest vegetation study, and analyzing the impact of climate changes on wetland forest vegetations of the strict protection area at the SNR Zasavica Ramsar site. Field research was carried out by using Braun-Blanquet’s Zurich-Montpelier school method. Phytogeographical elements and life forms of plants were determined subsequently, in order to get indicator values of wetland plants. Coupled Regional Climate Model (CRCM, EBU-POM was used for the climate simulations. Exact climatic variables for the site were determined by downscaling method. Climatic variables reference values were taken for the period of 1961-1990, and climate change simulations for the period 2071-2100 (A1B and A2. Indicator values of forest plants taken into consideration were humidity and temperature; therefore, ecological optimums were determined in scales of humidity and temperature. Regional Climate Model shows that there will be a long and intensive dry period in the future, with high temperatures from April till October. Continental winter will be more humid, with higher precipitation, especially in February. Based on the analysis of results it was concluded that wetlands are transitional habitats, also very variable and therefore vulnerable to changes. The changes may lead to the extinction of some plant species.

  12. Climate change. Socio-economic impacts and violent conflict

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The results of a literature study on the socio-economic impacts of climate change and the possibilities of violent conflicts enhanced by the greenhouse effect are presented. The socio-economic impacts are classified according to the economic sectors agriculture, forestry, fishery, energy, water, construction, transport, tourism and recreation and discussed in Chapter 2. The impacts on property, ecosystems and human well being are outlined in chapter 3. Chapter 4 deals with climate change and environmental security, and discusses the most important concepts of security and their relation to climate change. Chapter 5 deals with already existing and potential conflicts, that may be enhanced by the greenhouse effect as a result of resource scarcity, particularly related to availability of food and water. On the basis of the literature study and an analysis of research gaps propositions are made on new areas of research to be undertaken. The study emphasizes the need to further study the impact on agriculture in semi-arid zones, the impact on water availability in sensitive regions, a further analysis of the consequences of sea level rise particularly in sensitive areas and with regard to forced migration. Also further studies are required into the socio-economic impacts of changes in human health and mortality due to climate change, in relation to diseases. Special attention should be paid to migration because of environmental degradation and flooding. Extreme weather events have already been studied, but there still is a need for further insights into how extreme weather events will affect society, taking into account adaptive behaviour. Finally, in the area of socio-economic impacts, the implications of changes in ecosystems and biodiversity require further attention as these effects may be large but, at the same time, difficult to assess in economic terms. 175 refs

  13. The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Cameroon

    OpenAIRE

    Molua, Ernest L.; Lambi, Cornelius M.

    2007-01-01

    This study examines the impact of climate change on crop farming in Cameroon. The country's economy is predominantly agrarian and agriculture and the exploitation of natural resources remain the driving force for the country's economic development. Fluctuations in national income are due not merely to the decline in world demand for Cameroon's traditional agricultural exports or to mistake...

  14. Climate Change Impacts on High-Altitude Ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Harald Pauli

    2016-01-01

    Reviewed: Climate Change Impacts on High-Altitude Ecosystems By Münir Öztürk, Khalid Rehman Hakeem, I. Faridah-Hanum and Efe. Recep, Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing, 2015. xvii + 696 pp. US$ 239.00. ISBN 978-3-319-12858-0.

  15. Climate Change Impact Assessment of Food- and Waterborne Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenza, Jan C; Herbst, Susanne; Rechenburg, Andrea; Suk, Jonathan E; Höser, Christoph; Schreiber, Christiane; Kistemann, Thomas

    2012-04-01

    The PubMed and ScienceDirect bibliographic databases were searched for the period of 1998-2009 to evaluate the impact of climatic and environmental determinants on food- and waterborne diseases. The authors assessed 1,642 short and concise sentences (key facts), which were extracted from 722 relevant articles and stored in a climate change knowledge base. Key facts pertaining to temperature, precipitation, water, and food for 6 selected pathogens were scrutinized, evaluated, and compiled according to exposure pathways. These key facts (corresponding to approximately 50,000 words) were mapped to 275 terminology terms identified in the literature, which generated 6,341 connections. These relationships were plotted on semantic network maps to examine the interconnections between variables. The risk of campylobacteriosis is associated with mean weekly temperatures, although this link is shown more strongly in the literature relating to salmonellosis. Irregular and severe rain events are associated with Cryptosporidium sp. outbreaks, while noncholera Vibrio sp. displays increased growth rates in coastal waters during hot summers. In contrast, for Norovirus and Listeria sp. the association with climatic variables was relatively weak, but much stronger for food determinants. Electronic data mining to assess the impact of climate change on food- and waterborne diseases assured a methodical appraisal of the field. This climate change knowledge base can support national climate change vulnerability, impact, and adaptation assessments and facilitate the management of future threats from infectious diseases. In the light of diminishing resources for public health this approach can help balance different climate change adaptation options. PMID:24808720

  16. European information on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jol, A.; Isoard, S.

    2010-09-01

    Vulnerability to natural and technological disasters is increasing due to a combination of intensifying land use, increasing industrial development, further urban expansion and expanding infrastructure and also climate change. At EU level the European Commission's White Paper on adaptation to climate change (published in 2009) highlights that adaptation actions should be focused on the most vulnerable areas and communities in Europe (e.g. mountains, coastal areas, river flood prone areas, Mediterranean, Arctic). Mainstreaming of climate change into existing EU policies will be a key policy, including within the Water Framework Directive, Marine Strategy Framework Directive, Nature protection and biodiversity policies, integrated coastal zone management, other (sectoral) policies (agriculture, forestry, energy, transport, health) and disaster risk prevention. 2010 is the international year on biodiversity and the Conference of Parties of the biodiversity convention will meet in autumn 2010 (Japan) to discuss amongst other post-2010 strategies, objectives and indicators. Both within the Biodiversity Convention (CBD) and the Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) there is increasing recognition of the need for integration of biodiversity conservation into climate change mitigation and adaptation activities. Furthermore a number of European countries and also some regions have started to prepare and/or have adopted national adaptation plans or frameworks. Sharing of good practices on climate change vulnerability methods and adaptation actions is so far limited, but is essential to improve such plans, at national, sub national and local level where much of the adaptation action is already taking place and will be expanding in future, also involving increasingly the business community. The EU Clearinghouse on CC impacts, vulnerability and adaptation should address these needs and it is planned to be operational end of 2011. The EEA is expected to have a role in its

  17. Potential Impacts of Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, J. A.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is projected to have substantial impacts in the Great Lakes region of the United States. One intent of this presentation is to introduce the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments Center (GLISA), a recently-funded NOAA RISA center. The goals and unique organizational structure of GLISA will be described along with core activities that support impact and assessment studies in the region. Additionally, observed trends in temperature, precipitation including lake effect snowfall, and lake temperatures and ice cover will be summarized for the Great Lakes region, and vulnerabilities to, and potential impacts of, climate change will be surveyed for critical natural and human systems. These include forest ecosystems, water resources, traditional and specialized agriculture, and tourism/recreation. Impacts and vulnerabilities unique to the Great Lakes region are emphasized.

  18. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

    2015-09-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from 32.7 billion to 54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

  19. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison M.; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russ; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, B. J.; McFarland, Jim; Strzepek, K.; Boehlert, Brent

    2015-09-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from $32.7 billion to $54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

  20. Climate change impacts and risks for animal health in Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forman, S; Hungerford, N; Yamakawa, M; Yanase, T; Tsai, H-J; Joo, Y-S; Yang, D-K; Nha, J-J

    2008-08-01

    The threat of climate change and global warming is now recognised worldwide and some alarming manifestations of change have occurred. The Asian continent, because of its size and diversity, may be affected significantly by the consequences of climate change, and its new status as a 'hub' of livestock production gives it an important role in mitigating possible impacts of climate variability on animal health. Animal health may be affected by climate change in four ways: heat-related diseases and stress, extreme weather events, adaptation of animal production systems to new environments, and emergence or re-emergence of infectious diseases, especially vector-borne diseases critically dependent on environmental and climatic conditions. To face these new menaces, the need for strong and efficient Veterinary Services is irrefutable, combined with good coordination of public health services, as many emerging human diseases are zoonoses. Asian developing countries have acute weaknesses in their Veterinary Services, which jeopardises the global surveillance network essential for early detection of hazards. Indeed, international cooperation within and outside Asia is vital to mitigating the risks of climate change to animal health in Asia. PMID:18819679

  1. Malaria and Climate Change: Discussion on Economic Impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. S. Mia

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Climate change is a global environmental change that is adversely affecting human health by causing various health impacts in countries throughout the world. Climate is the most influential driving force of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. Changes in climate factors substantially affect reproduction, development, distribution and seasonal transmissions of malaria. Climate change increases the outbreak of malaria which causes adverse economic impacts in endemic regions. This study reviews literature related to economic impacts of malaria at different levels such as household and national level. The study also focuses on the impacts of malaria on the economic growth of various nations. Approach: Literatures were identified for review through a comprehensive search by using electronic and non-electronic databases. Several electronic databases were searched for published literature in a systematic way using a range of key words relating to economic impacts of malaria illness. Related literature and documents were also found through communicating with colleagues working in this research area. Related literature and documents were also found through communicating with colleagues working in this research area. Results: The literature review indicates that malaria causes great economic losses at household level through human morbidity and mortality and consequently lower labor productivity, disability and poverty. At the national level, malaria affects negatively the trade, investments, savings and tourism sector. Macroeconomic studies estimated that the annual growth rate of per capita GDP of malaria endemic countries was 0.25-1.3% points lower per year than that of non-malarious countries. Conclusion: Reducing the burden of malaria could help to break the vicious cycle between illness and poverty that contributes to economic growth of the endemic countries. Therefore, further research is urgently needed to

  2. Impacts of climate change on Ontario's forests. Forest research information paper number 143

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reviews literature concerning the effects of global climate change on forest plants and communities, and provides opinions on the potential impacts that climate change may have on Ontario forests. Sections of the review discuss the following: The climate of Ontario in the 21st century as predicted by climate models; forest hydrology in relation to climate change; insects and climate change; impacts on fungi in the forest ecosystem; impacts on forest fires and their management; plant physiological responses; genetic implications of climate change; forest vegetation dynamics; the use of models in global climate change studies; and forest management responses to climate change

  3. Assessing the impacts of climatic change on mountain water resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beniston, Martin; Stoffel, Markus

    2014-09-15

    As the evidence for human induced climate change becomes clearer, so too does the realization that its effects will have impacts on numerous environmental and socio-economic systems. Mountains are recognized as very sensitive physical environments with populations whose histories and current social positions often strain their capacity to accommodate intense and rapid changes to their resource base. It is thus essential to assess the impacts of a changing climate, focusing on the quantity of water originating in mountain regions, particularly where snow and ice melt represent a large streamflow component as well as a local resource in terms of freshwater supply, hydropower generation, or irrigation. Increasing evidence of glacier retreat, permafrost degradation and reduced mountain snowpack has been observed in many regions, thereby suggesting that climate change may seriously affect streamflow regimes. These changes could in turn threaten the availability of water resources for many environmental and economic systems, and exacerbate a range of natural hazards that would compound these impacts. As a consequence, socio-economic structures of downstream living populations would be also impacted, calling for better preparedness and strategies to avoid conflicts of interest between water-dependent economic actors. This paper is thus an introduction to the Special Issue of this journal dedicated to the European Union Seventh Framework Program (EU-FP7) project ACQWA (Assessing Climate Impacts on the Quantity and Quality of WAter), a major European network of scientists that was coordinated by the University of Geneva from 2008 to 2014. The goal of ACQWA has been to address a number of these issues and propose a range of solutions for adaptation to change and to help improve water governance in regions where quantity, seasonality, and perhaps quality of water may substantially change in coming decades. PMID:24360916

  4. The impact of climate change on coastal ecosystems: chapter 6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, Virginia; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Nicholls, Robert J.; Forbes, Donald L.

    2014-01-01

    In this chapter we stress two important features of coasts and coastal ecosystems. First, these are dynamic systems which continually undergo adjustments, especially through erosion and re-deposition, in response to a range of processes. Many coastal ecosystems adjust naturally at a range of time scales and their potential for response is examined partly by reconstructing how such systems have coped with natural changes of climate and sea level in the geological past. Second, coasts have changed profoundly through the 20th Century due to the impacts of human development (such as urbanisation, port and industrial expansion, shore protection, and the draining and conversion of coastal wetlands), with these development-related drivers closely linked to a growing global population and economy. It remains a challenge to isolate the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise from either the natural trajectory of shoreline change, or the accelerated pathway resulting from other human-related stressors. There exists a danger of overstating the importance of climate change, or overlooking significant interactions of climate change with other drivers.

  5. Climate for Culture: assessing the impact of climate change on the future indoor climate in historic buildings using simulations

    OpenAIRE

    Leissner, J; Kilian, R; Kotova, Lola; Jacob, Daniela; Mikolajewicz, U; Brostrom, T; Ashley-Smith, J; Schellen, HL Henk; Martens, MHJ Marco; Schijndel, van, AWM Jos; Antretter, F.; Winkler, M.; Bertolin, C.; Camuffo, D; Simeunovic, Goran

    2015-01-01

    Background The present study reports results from the large-scale integrated EU project "Climate for Culture". The full name, or title, of the project is Climate for Culture: damage risk assessment, economic impact and mitigation strategies for sustainable preservation of cultural heritage in times of climate change. This paper focusses on implementing high resolution regional climate models together with new building simulation tools in order to predict future outdoor and indoor climate cond...

  6. Climate for Culture: assessing the impact of climate change on the future indoor climate in historic buildings using simulations

    OpenAIRE

    Leissner, J; Kilian, R; Kotova, L.; D. Jacob; Mikolajewicz, U; Broström, T; Ashley-Smith, J; Schellen, H.; Martens, M.; van Schijndel, J.; Antretter, F.; Winkler, M.; Bertolin, C.; Camuffo, D; Simeunovic, G.

    2015-01-01

    The present study reports results from the large-scale integrated EU project “Climate for Culture”. The full name, or title, of the project is Climate for Culture: damage risk assessment, economic impact and mitigation strategies for sustainable preservation of cultural heritage in times of climate change. This paper focusses on implementing high resolution regional climate models together with new building simulation tools in order to predict future outdoor and indoor climate conditions. The...

  7. Climate change impacts and adaptation: a Canadian perspective. Transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A brief summary of research over the past five years in the field of climate change, as it relates to key sectors in Canada, is presented in the report entitled: Climate change impacts and adaptation: a Canadian perspective. The emphasis of this chapter is on transportation, the role of adaptation in reducing vulnerabilities, and capitalizing on potential opportunities. Other sectors, such as fisheries, the coastal zone, tourism and human health might be affected by decisions made with regard to transportation. The areas that seem most vulnerable to climate change in transportation include northern ice roads, Great Lakes shipping, coastal infrastructure threatened by sea-level rise, and infrastructure located on permafrost. Most of the attention has been devoted to infrastructure and operations issues in northern Canada, despite most of the transportation activities taking place in southern Canada. Milder and or shorter winters might lead to savings, but additional knowledge is required before quantitative estimates can be made. The changed frequency of extreme climate events, and or changes in precipitation may influence other weather hazards or inefficiencies. If Canadians are prepared to be proactive, the report indicated that the effects of climate change on transportation may be largely manageable. 77 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs

  8. Climate change impacts and adaptation: a Canadian perspective. Transportation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-08-01

    A brief summary of research over the past five years in the field of climate change, as it relates to key sectors in Canada, is presented in the report entitled: Climate change impacts and adaptation: a Canadian perspective. The emphasis of this chapter is on transportation, the role of adaptation in reducing vulnerabilities, and capitalizing on potential opportunities. Other sectors, such as fisheries, the coastal zone, tourism and human health might be affected by decisions made with regard to transportation. The areas that seem most vulnerable to climate change in transportation include northern ice roads, Great Lakes shipping, coastal infrastructure threatened by sea-level rise, and infrastructure located on permafrost. Most of the attention has been devoted to infrastructure and operations issues in northern Canada, despite most of the transportation activities taking place in southern Canada. Milder and or shorter winters might lead to savings, but additional knowledge is required before quantitative estimates can be made. The changed frequency of extreme climate events, and or changes in precipitation may influence other weather hazards or inefficiencies. If Canadians are prepared to be proactive, the report indicated that the effects of climate change on transportation may be largely manageable. 77 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs.

  9. Modeling impacts of climate change on freshwater availability in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faramarzi, Monireh; Abbaspour, Karim C.; Ashraf Vaghefi, Saeid; Farzaneh, Mohammad Reza; Zehnder, Alexander J. B.; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Yang, Hong

    2013-02-01

    SummaryThis study analyzes the impact of climate change on freshwater availability in Africa at the subbasin level for the period of 2020-2040. Future climate projections from five global circulation models (GCMs) under the four IPCC emission scenarios were fed into an existing SWAT hydrological model to project the impact on different components of water resources across the African continent. The GCMs have been downscaled based on observed data of Climate Research Unit to represent local climate conditions at 0.5° grid spatial resolution. The results show that for Africa as a whole, the mean total quantity of water resources is likely to increase. For individual subbasins and countries, variations are substantial. Although uncertainties are high in the simulated results, we found that in many regions/countries, most of the climate scenarios projected the same direction of changes in water resources, suggesting a relatively high confidence in the projections. The assessment of the number of dry days and the frequency of their occurrences suggests an increase in the drought events and their duration in the future. Overall, the dry regions have higher uncertainties than the wet regions in the projected impacts on water resources. This poses additional challenge to the agriculture in dry regions where water shortage is already severe while irrigation is expected to become more important to stabilize and increase food production.

  10. Corporate responses to climate change and financial performance, the impact of climate policy

    OpenAIRE

    Ziegler, Andreas R.; Busch, Timo; Hoffmann, Volker H.

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between corporate activities to address climate change and stock performance. By separately analyzing the US and European stock markets for different sub-periods, we highlight the impact of the underlying climate policy regime. Methodologically, we compare risk-adjusted returns of stock portfolios comprising corporations that differ in their responses to climate change. In this respect, we apply the flexible Carhart fourfactor model besides the restricted ...

  11. Impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The changes in climate projected to result from increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases will lead to impacts on important resources, including agriculture, fresh water, natural ecosystems, and coastal developments. A growing body of climate impact research already suggests that important effects will be felt in all countries, sometimes in severe and dramatic ways. This chapter focuses on the potential impacts of changes in climate on water resources and agriculture in the US and the Soviet Union, although many other impacts will also occur. These other effects include a rising sea level that will threaten coastal regions and natural ecosystems; altered productivity of ocean and freshwater fisheries as a result of changes in temperatures, ocean currents, and nutrient flows; worsened urban air quality if rising temperatures increase the formation of low-level ozone; forest migration and diebacks, increased pest outbreaks, and greater frequency of fires; and more frequent and more intense storms. Better understanding of potential impacts, and the consequences of the relatively rapid rate at which they may occur, requires intensified efforts

  12. Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlet, Alan F.; Palen, Wendy J.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Halabisky, Meghan

    2015-01-01

    Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland water levels and soil moisture simulated by the physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we developed site-specific regression models relating soil moisture to observed wetland water levels to simulate the hydrologic behavior of four types of montane wetlands (ephemeral, intermediate, perennial, permanent wetlands) in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. The hybrid models captured observed wetland dynamics in many cases, though were less robust in others. We then used these models to a) hindcast historical wetland behavior in response to observed climate variability (1916–2010 or later) and classify wetland types, and b) project the impacts of climate change on montane wetlands using global climate model scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B emissions scenario). These future projections show that climate-induced changes to key driving variables (reduced snowpack, higher evapotranspiration, extended summer drought) will result in earlier and faster drawdown in Pacific Northwest montane wetlands, leading to systematic reductions in water levels, shortened wetland hydroperiods, and increased probability of drying. Intermediate hydroperiod wetlands are projected to experience the greatest changes. For the 2080s scenario, widespread conversion of intermediate wetlands to fast-drying ephemeral wetlands will likely reduce

  13. Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Se-Yeun; Ryan, Maureen E; Hamlet, Alan F; Palen, Wendy J; Lawler, Joshua J; Halabisky, Meghan

    2015-01-01

    Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland water levels and soil moisture simulated by the physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we developed site-specific regression models relating soil moisture to observed wetland water levels to simulate the hydrologic behavior of four types of montane wetlands (ephemeral, intermediate, perennial, permanent wetlands) in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. The hybrid models captured observed wetland dynamics in many cases, though were less robust in others. We then used these models to a) hindcast historical wetland behavior in response to observed climate variability (1916-2010 or later) and classify wetland types, and b) project the impacts of climate change on montane wetlands using global climate model scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B emissions scenario). These future projections show that climate-induced changes to key driving variables (reduced snowpack, higher evapotranspiration, extended summer drought) will result in earlier and faster drawdown in Pacific Northwest montane wetlands, leading to systematic reductions in water levels, shortened wetland hydroperiods, and increased probability of drying. Intermediate hydroperiod wetlands are projected to experience the greatest changes. For the 2080s scenario, widespread conversion of intermediate wetlands to fast-drying ephemeral wetlands will likely reduce

  14. Globalisation and climate change in Asia: the urban health impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munslow, Barry; O'Dempsey, Tim

    2010-01-01

    Asia's economic development successes will create new policy areas to address, as the advances made through globalisation create greater climate change challenges, particularly the impact on urban health. Poverty eradication and higher standards of living both increase demand on resources. Globalisation increases inequalities and those who are currently the losers will carry the greatest burden of the costs in the form of the negative effects of climate change and the humanitarian crises that will ensue. Of four major climate change challenges affecting the environment and health, two—urban air pollution and waste management—can be mitigated by policy change and technological innovation if sufficient resources are allocated. Because of the urban bias in the development process, these challenges will probably register on policy makers' agenda. The second two major challenges—floods and drought—are less amenable to policy and technological solutions: many humanitarian emergency challenges lie ahead. This article describes the widely varying impact of both globalisation and climate change across Asia. The greatest losers are those who flee one marginal location, the arid inland areas, only to settle in another marginal location in the flood prone coastal slums. Effective preparation is required, and an effective response when subsequent humanitarian crises occur. PMID:21506298

  15. Climate change impacts on the U.S. agricultural economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, You; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Gao, Wei

    2015-09-01

    The most important aggregate measure of the long run health of the productive component of the agricultural economy is agricultural total factor productivity (TFP). Between 1948 and 2011, average annual input growth in US agriculture averaged approximately 0.07% while annual average output growth averaged roughly 1.5%. That translates into an annual average agricultural TFP growth rate of approximately 1.43%. That growth has led to a remarkable expansion of the productive ability of the US agricultural sector. However, climate change poses unprecedented challenges to U.S. agricultural production because of the sensitivity of agricultural productivity and costs to changing climate conditions. Some studies have examined the effect of climate change on U.S. agriculture. But none has investigated how climate affects the overall U.S. agricultural productivity. This study intends to find out climate change impacts on U.S. agricultural TFP change (TFPC). By correlation analysis with data in 1979-2005, we found that precipitation and temperature had significant positive or negative correlations with U.S. agricultural TFPC. Those correlation coefficients ranged from -0.8 to 0.8. And significant correlations, whether positive or negative, existed in different regions and different seasons. This is important information for policy-makers in decisions to support U.S. agriculture sustainability.

  16. Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, David J; Hartley, Andrew J; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G

    2016-07-01

    Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses. PMID:26950769

  17. Human Interventions versus Climate Change: Impacts on Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gautam, M. R.; Acharya, K.

    2009-12-01

    Water availability and occurrence of water induced disasters are impacted by both natural and human centric drivers. Climate change is considered to be one of the noted drivers in this regard. Human interventions through land use/land cover change, stream and floodplain regulations via dams, weirs, and embankments could be other equally important group of drivers. Unlike developed countries that have both resources and capabilities to adapt and mitigate the impact of such drivers, developing countries are increasingly at more risk. Identifying roles of such drivers are fundamental to the formulation of any adaptation and mitigation plans for their impacts for developing countries. In this study, we present a few examples from three regions of Nepal- a developing country in South Asia generally considered as a water rich country. Through results of modeling and statistical analyses, we show which driver is in control in different watersheds. Preliminary results show that climate change impact appears to be more prominent in large snow-fed river basins. In the smaller non-snow-fed watersheds originating from the middle hill, the impacts are not explicit despite perception of local people about changes in the water availability. In the southern belt bordering India, the impacts of river regulation on downstream areas are found to be the principal cause of flooding/inundation.

  18. Climate variability: Possible changes with climate change and impacts on crop yields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A pilot study was carried out of the sensitivity of the CERES wheat model, a deterministic crop-climate model, to changes in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. The study was designed to determine the effect of changed temperature variance on the mean and variance of the simulated yields, to compare the effect with the effect of mean temperature changes, and to determine the interacting effects of changes in mean and variance of temperature. The CERES model was applied to 29 cropping years (1952-1980), using three different soil types and two different management practices (fully irrigated and dryland). The coefficients of variation of the yields for irrigated and dryland conditions are plotted against variance change. It was found that in both management systems, the yield response is usually greater to increases rather than decreases in variance. The combined effect of mean and variance temperature changes are most striking under irrigated conditions, with a dramatic decrease in yield variability in the high mean climate change scenario with decreased temperature variance. This suggests that the variability decrease might mitigate the effect of a mean increase in temperature. This result is not found with the dryland case, where decreased temperature variability has little impact on yield variability. 12 refs., 4 figs

  19. Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caminade, Cyril; Kovats, Sari; Rocklov, Joacim; Tompkins, Adrian M.; Morse, Andrew P.; Colón-González, Felipe J.; Stenlund, Hans; Martens, Pim; Lloyd, Simon J.

    2014-01-01

    Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution. PMID:24596427

  20. The impact of climate change on persistent contrail occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irvine, Emma; Shine, Keith; Stringer, Marc

    2016-04-01

    The formation of persistent contrails by aircraft flying through cold ice-supersaturated (CISS) regions contributes to anthropogenic climate change. However, as the climate itself changes during the 21st century, the potential for the formation of persistent contrails may also change. We recently (doi: 10.5194/esd-6-555-2015) found a global-mean decrease in the frequency of CISS regions of one third (11 to 7%) by the end of the 21st century, relative to present-day conditions, using climate model data from CMIP5. This decrease is dominated by the large decrease in CISS frequency in the tropics where the models predict strong upper-tropospheric warming, to levels above the threshold temperature at which contrails can form. The situation for the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is less clear and dependent on model, latitude and season. Actual changes to contrail cover during this period will depend also on flight routing. An example is shown for the north Atlantic, where aircraft routing is strongly wind-dependent and therefore will be affected by changes to the jet stream. Here we combine our analysis of changes in CISS with projected changes in aircraft routes (which are calculated using the climate model winds), to estimate the net impact on persistent contrail occurrence in this region. We distinguish between the effect on eastbound flights, which generally aim to exploit the jet stream, and westbound flights that aim to avoid it.

  1. Climate Change Impacts in a Colombian Andean Tropical Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ocampo, O. L.; Vélez, J. J.; Londoño, A.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change and climate variability have a large impact on water resources. Developing regions have less capacity to prepare for, respond to, and recover from climate-related hazards and effects, and then, populations may be disproportionately affected. In Colombia, the geographical location and the marked irregularity in the terrain, give as a result, a complex climate. These factors have contributed to the water supply of the territory. Unfortunately, the visualization of abundant and inexhaustible water resources created a great disregard for them. Besides, the water supply is not distributed uniformly across the country, and then there is water-deficit in some areas as Andean Region, where the largest population and the main development centers are located. In recent decades, water conflicts have emerged locally and regionally, which have generated a crisis in the allocation mechanisms and have improved the understanding of the water situation in Colombia. The Second National Communication to CCMNU alerts on possible future consequences of climate change and the need for regional studies for understanding climate change impacts on the fragile ecosystems of high mountains as paramos and fog forest, which are water production regulators. Colombian water resources are greatly affected by changes in rainfall patterns influenced by El Niño and La Niña. The recent disasters in the 2010-2011 rainy seasons have caught the attention of not only the authorities but from the scientific community to explore strategies to improve water management by tracking, anticipating and responding to climate variability and climate change. Whereas sound water management is built upon long-term, the country is undertaking a pilot exercise for the integrated management of water resources, five Basins are selected, among them, is the Chinchiná River Basin; this Andean tropical Basin is located on the western slopes at the central range in the Andes between 4°48 and 5°12 N

  2. Plantation forestry in Brazil: the potential impacts of climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Most climatic changes predicted to occur in Brazil would replace yields of silvicultural plantations, mainly through increased frequency and severity of droughts brought on by global warming and by reduction of water vapor sources in Amazonia caused by deforestation. Some additional negative effects could result from changes in temperature, and positive effects could result from CO2 enrichment. The net effects would be negative, forcing the country to expand plantations onto less-productive land, requiring increased plantation area (and consequent economic losses) out of proportion to the climatic change itself. These impacts would affect carbon sequestration and storage consequences of any plans for subsidizing silviculture as a global warming mitigation option. Climate change can be expected to increase the area of plantations needed to supply projected internal demand for and exports of end products from Brazil. June-July-August (dry season) precipitation reductions indicated by simulations reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) correspond to rainfall declines in this critical season of approximately 34% in Amazonia, 39% in Southern Brazil and 61% in the Northeast. As an example, if rainfall in Brazilian plantation areas (most of which are now in Southern Brazil) were to decline by 50%, the area needed in 2050 would expand by an estimated 38% over the constant climate case, bringing the total area to 4.5 times the 1991 area. These large areas of additional plantations imply substantial social and environmental impacts. Further addition of plantation area as a global warming response option would augment these impacts, indicating the need for caution in evaluating carbon sequestration proposals. (author)

  3. Plantation forestry in Brazil: the potential impacts of climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fearnside, P.M. [National Institute for Research in the Amazon, Manaus (Brazil). Dept. of Ecology

    1999-11-01

    Most climatic changes predicted to occur in Brazil would replace yields of silvicultural plantations, mainly through increased frequency and severity of droughts brought on by global warming and by reduction of water vapor sources in Amazonia caused by deforestation. Some additional negative effects could result from changes in temperature, and positive effects could result from CO{sub 2} enrichment. The net effects would be negative, forcing the country to expand plantations onto less-productive land, requiring increased plantation area (and consequent economic losses) out of proportion to the climatic change itself. These impacts would affect carbon sequestration and storage consequences of any plans for subsidizing silviculture as a global warming mitigation option. Climate change can be expected to increase the area of plantations needed to supply projected internal demand for and exports of end products from Brazil. June-July-August (dry season) precipitation reductions indicated by simulations reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) correspond to rainfall declines in this critical season of approximately 34% in Amazonia, 39% in Southern Brazil and 61% in the Northeast. As an example, if rainfall in Brazilian plantation areas (most of which are now in Southern Brazil) were to decline by 50%, the area needed in 2050 would expand by an estimated 38% over the constant climate case, bringing the total area to 4.5 times the 1991 area. These large areas of additional plantations imply substantial social and environmental impacts. Further addition of plantation area as a global warming response option would augment these impacts, indicating the need for caution in evaluating carbon sequestration proposals. (author)

  4. Plantation forestry in Brazil: the potential impacts of climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fearnside, P.M. [National Institute for Research in the Amazon, Manaus (Brazil). Dept. of Ecology

    1999-07-01

    Most climatic changes predicted to occur in Brazil would replace yields of silvicultural plantations, mainly through increased frequency and severity of droughts brought on by global warming and by reduction of water vapor sources in Amazonia caused by deforestation. Some additional negative effects could result from changes in temperature, and positive effects could result from CO{sub 2} enrichment. The net effects would be negative, forcing the country to expand plantations onto less-productive land, requiring increased plantation area (and consequent economic losses) out of proportion to the climatic change itself. These impacts would affect carbon sequestration and storage consequences of any plans for subsidizing silviculture as a global warming mitigation option. Climate change can be expected to increase the area of plantations needed to supply projected internal demand for and exports of end products from Brazil. June-July-August (dry season) precipitation reductions indicated by simulations reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) correspond to rainfall declines in this critical season of approximately 34% in Amazonia, 39% in Southern Brazil and 61% in the Northeast. As an example, if rainfall in Brazilian plantation areas (most of which are now in Southern Brazil) were to decline by 50%, the area needed in 2050 would expand by an estimated 38% over the constant climate case, bringing the total area to 4.5 times the 1991 area. These large areas of additional plantations imply substantial social and environmental impacts. Further addition of plantation area as a global warming response option would augment these impacts, indicating the need for caution in evaluating carbon sequestration proposals. (author)

  5. Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkama, Ramdane; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2016-02-01

    Changes in forest cover affect the local climate by modulating the land-atmosphere fluxes of energy and water. The magnitude of this biophysical effect is still debated in the scientific community and currently ignored in climate treaties. Here we present an observation-driven assessment of the climate impacts of recent forest losses and gains, based on Earth observations of global forest cover and land surface temperatures. Our results show that forest losses amplify the diurnal temperature variation and increase the mean and maximum air temperature, with the largest signal in arid zones, followed by temperate, tropical, and boreal zones. In the decade 2003-2012, variations of forest cover generated a mean biophysical warming on land corresponding to about 18% of the global biogeochemical signal due to CO2 emission from land-use change.

  6. Potential impacts of climatic change upon geographical distributions of birds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huntley, Brian; Collingham, Yvonne C.; Green, Rhys E.;

    2006-01-01

    biodiversity. Birds, in common with other terrestrial organisms, are expected to exhibit one of two general responses to climatic change: they may adapt to the changed conditions without shifting location, or they may show a spatial response, adjusting their geographical distribution in response to the...... to achieve a sufficient response by either or both of these mechanisms will be at risk of extinction; the Quaternary record documents examples of such extinctions. Relationships between the geographical distributions of birds and present climate have been modelled for species breeding in both Europe...... climate lead to the conclusion that the impacts upon birds are likely to be substantial. The boundaries of many species' potential geographical distributions are likely to be shifted  1000 km. There is likely to be a general decline in avian species richness, with the mean extent of species' potential...

  7. The poverty impacts of climate change : a review of the evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Skoufias, Emmanuel; Rabassa, Mariano; Olivieri, Sergio

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is believed to represent a serious challenge to poverty reduction efforts around the globe. This paper conducts an up-to-date review of three main strands of the literature analyzing the poverty impacts of climate change : (i) economy-wide growth models incorporating climate change impacts to work out consistent scenarios for how climate change might affect the path of pover...

  8. Drivers of climate change impacts on bird communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce-Higgins, James W; Eglington, Sarah M; Martay, Blaise; Chamberlain, Dan E

    2015-07-01

    Climate change is reported to have caused widespread changes to species' populations and ecological communities. Warming has been associated with population declines in long-distance migrants and habitat specialists, and increases in southerly distributed species. However, the specific climatic drivers behind these changes remain undescribed. We analysed annual fluctuations in the abundance of 59 breeding bird species in England over 45 years to test the effect of monthly temperature and precipitation means upon population trends. Strong positive correlations between population growth and both winter and breeding season temperature were identified for resident and short-distance migrants. Lagged correlations between population growth and summer temperature and precipitation identified for the first time a widespread negative impact of hot, dry summer weather. Resident populations appeared to increase following wet autumns. Populations of long-distance migrants were negatively affected by May temperature, consistent with a potential negative effect of phenological mismatch upon breeding success. There was evidence for some nonlinear relationships between monthly weather variables and population growth. Habitat specialists and cold-associated species showed consistently more negative effects of higher temperatures than habitat generalists and southerly distributed species associated with warm temperatures. Results suggest that previously reported changes in community composition represent the accumulated effects of spring and summer warming. Long-term population trends were more significantly correlated with species' sensitivity to temperature than precipitation, suggesting that warming has had a greater impact on population trends than changes in precipitation. Months where there had been the greatest warming were the most influential drivers of long-term change. There was also evidence that species with the greatest sensitivity to extremes of precipitation have

  9. Economic and welfare impacts of climate change on developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The impact of global climate change on developing countries is analyzed using CGE-multimarket models for three archetype economies representing the poor cereal importing nations of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The objective is to compare the effects of climate change on the macroeconomic performance, sectoral resource allocation, and household welfare across continents. Simulations help identify those underlying structural features of economies which are the primary determinants of differential impacts; these are suggestive of policy instruments to countervail undesirable effects. Results show that all these countries will potentially suffer income and production losses. However, Africa, with its low substitution possibilities between imported and domestic foods, fares worst in terms of income losses and the drop in consumption of low income households. Countervailing policies to mitigate negative effects should focus on integration in the international market and the production of food crops in Africa, and on the production of export crops in Latin America and Asia. 46 refs

  10. The impact of climate change on hydro-electricity generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hydroelectricity is a clean and renewable energy source for many countries, and is expected to play an important role in future energy supplies. However, the impact of climatic change on hydroelectricity resources is not yet understood. This study provided a critical review of current methods used to determine the potential impacts of climatic change on hydroelectric power production. General circulation models (GCMs) are used to predict future climate conditions under various greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. Statistical techniques are then used to down-scale GCM outputs to the appropriate scales needed for hydrological models, which are then used to simulate the effects of climatic change at regional and local scales. Outputs from the models are then used to develop water management models for hydroelectric power production. Observed linear trends in annual precipitation during the twentieth century were provided. The theoretical advantages and disadvantages of various modelling techniques were reviewed. Risk assessment strategies for Hydro-Quebec were also outlined and results of the study will be used to guide research programs for the hydroelectric power industry. refs., tabs., figs

  11. Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandryk, M.; Reidsma, P.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2012-01-01

    Towards 2050, climate change is one of the possible drivers that will change the farming landscape, but market, policy and technological development may be at least equally important. In the last decade, many studies assessed impacts of climate change and specific adaptation strategies. However, ada

  12. The impacts of climate change on agriculture in Manitoba

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A study was carried out to examine the potential effects of a doubled carbon dioxide climate change scenario on gross margins received from cropping enterprises and the patterns of crop production in Manitoba, Canada. The 1987 run of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) was chosen to supply climatic data. Models were developed for yield changes in existing crops, crop migration, and economic impacts. Three scenarios were considered: scenario 1 using historical seeding dates and climates, scenario 2 using historical seeding dates and a flat 3 degree C temperature increase, and scenario 3 where seeding is advanced 14 days and temperatures increase by 3 degree C. The results suggest that climatic warming will have a beneficial effect on the cropping sector in Manitoba. Gross margins are 53% greater in scenario 2 and 190% greater in scenario 3 when the increased area of productive land is considered. Wider cultivation of higher value crops offsets the negative effect of decreased yields of other crops. The changed climate will favour the introduction of longer maturing varieties of existing crops, greater commerical production of existing crops such as sunflowers, soybeans and corn, and the introduction of totally new crops such as sorghum. 26 refs., 1 tab

  13. MODELING IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN HYDROPOWER PROJECTS' FEASIBILITY VALUATION

    OpenAIRE

    Ronny Araya SUAREZ

    2012-01-01

    In this paper a case study is presented to propose an alternative mechanism to include the impact of climate change into the hydropower projects' feasibility valuation. We start from independent engineer historical energy generation simulations, therefore applying mixing unconditional disturbance and extreme value theory, a new path that satisfy a return level specification is created. New path is used to analyze the effect of extreme events on the internal rate of return of the project. This...

  14. The impact of climate change on phytoplankton - bacterioplankton interactions

    OpenAIRE

    Breithaupt, Petra

    2009-01-01

    Global warming has already and is continuing to impact the global oceans. Half of the global primary production is performed by phytoplankton in the oceans and heterotrophic marine bacteria channel a substantial amount of primary organic carbon through the microbial loop. Understanding the influence of climate change on these important processes is therefore essential for an assessment of the vulnerability of the carbon cycle and possible feedbacks. This thesis reports results from investigat...

  15. Climate change impact on wetland forest plants of SNR Zasavica

    OpenAIRE

    Čavlović Dragana; Obratov-Petković Dragica; Ocokoljić Mirjana; Đurđević Vladimir

    2012-01-01

    Wetlands are among the most vulnerable habitats on the planet. Very complex forest ecosystems are also parts of wetlands. Research and analysis of forest vegetation elements, leads to a conclusion about ecological conditions of wetlands. The aim of the paper is detail forest vegetation study, and analyzing the impact of climate changes on wetland forest vegetations of the strict protection area at the SNR Zasavica Ramsar site. Field research was carried out by using Braun-Blanquet’s Zur...

  16. Climate change impact on wetland forest plants of SNR Zasavica

    OpenAIRE

    Čavlović Dragana; Obratov-Petković Dragica; Ocokoljić Mirjana; Đurđević Vladimir

    2012-01-01

    Wetlands are among the most vulnerable habitats on the planet. Very complex forest ecosystems are also parts of wetlands. Research and analysis of forest vegetation elements, leads to a conclusion about ecological conditions of wetlands. The aim of the paper is detail forest vegetation study, and analyzing the impact of climate changes on wetland forest vegetations of the strict protection area at the SNR Zasavica Ramsar site. Field research was carried out...

  17. Appropriate Hydrological Modelling of Climate Change Impacts on River Flooding

    OpenAIRE

    Booij, M. J.; Rizzoli, A.E.; Jakeman, A. J.

    2002-01-01

    How good should a river basin model be to assess the impact of climate change on river flooding for a specific geographical area? The determination of such an appropriate model should reveal which physical processes should be incorporated and which data and mathematical process descriptions should be used at which spatial and temporal scales. A procedure for determining an appropriate model has been developed and applied to the above mentioned specific problem for the Meuse river in France, B...

  18. Adapting to the impacts of climate change and variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A workshop was held to encourage awareness of the climate change impact issues and build collaboration among the Great Lakes/St. Lawrence basin (GLSLB) research, resource management, and policy-making community; to identify research opportunities to address the issues of water management, ecosystem health, human health, and land use and management; and to recommend directions and priority areas for future studies to develop an integrated climate impact assessment for the GLSLB. Presentations at the workshop were on topics including an overview of the GLSLB Project, the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand, and impacts on water quality, fisheries, wetlands, agriculture, shoreline management, and human health. Panel sessions were also convened to discuss information requirements that would assist in decision- and policy-making and to address the concept of integration. Working groups on water management, ecosystem health, land use and management, and human health were formed and made recommendations. A synthesis is presented of the reports from and recommendations of the four working groups as well as extended abstracts of the plenary presentations. A separate abstract has been prepared for one of the presentations from this workshop

  19. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Groundwater in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, N. L.

    2011-12-01

    California's water resources are primarily from snowmelt runoff from the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains. Depending on the year, Sierra Nevada snowmelt provides seventy percent of the water resources needed to sustain urban, agricultural, ecological, and other sector needs. With increasing temperatures due to climate change the Sierra Nevada snowmelt is occurring earlier and with decreasing snow cover area. Such change may mimic drought scenarios and dramatically alter water resource availability and management in California. A fundamental requirement for drought water management is knowledge of the total groundwater resources and the rate in which it is depleted. Application of remote sensed Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data represents an important new approach toward quantifying these values. The primary uncertainties are the spatial scale required for an accurate GRACE analysis and an insufficient number and frequency of well observations for ground-truth. In this study, an initial quantification of long-term droughts - an analogue for climate change related snowpack reduction - has been performed to illustrate the potential for subsurface storage to limit the adverse impacts of drought and snowpack reduction on water supply in the California. This includes estimates of the impacts of changes in groundwater levels, surface supply, and crop water demands. Analysis of California Central Valley impacts of sustained droughts are based on a series of specified reductions in net surface flows corresponding to historical 30% (below average), 50% (dry), and 70% (critically dry) effective reduction, for periods ranging from 10 to 60 years, and applied to the California Department of Water Resource's California Central Valley Groundwater-Surface Water Simulation Model. The impacts of the droughts are modeled for four different regions in the Central Valley, including the Sacramento Basin, Eastside, the San Joaquin Basin, and the Tulare Basin. Results

  20. The Impact of Climate Change on the United States Economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendelsohn, Robert; Neumann, James E.

    2004-08-01

    Understanding the impacts of climate change on economic behaviour is an important aspect of deciding when to take policy actions to prevent or mitigate its consequences. This book applies advanced new economics methodologies to assess impacts on potentially vulnerable aspects of the US economy: agriculture, timber, coastal resources, energy expenditure, fishing, outdoor recreation. It is intended to provide improved understanding of key issues raised in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. It concludes that some climate change may produce economic gains in the agriculture and forestry sectors, whereas energy, coastal structures, and water sectors may be harmed. The book will serve as an important reference for the scientific, economic, and policy community, and will also be of interest to natural resource/environmental economists as an example of economic valuation techniques. The volume will clearly be of main importance to researchers and policymakers in the US, but will also be influential as a model for assessment of impacts on economies worldwide.

  1. Climate variability, climate changes and their impact on water cycles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Water availability in Pakistan particularly depends upon both summer and winter rainfall in plains and snowfall over the mountains. Climatically being located in subtropical region, the major amount of rainfall is in monsoon season, which extends from July, to September. Incidentally the deficient or surplus rainfall years are dependent upon intensity of Monsoon current. The same Monsoon current is also responsible for rainfall over the catchment area of eastern rivers i.e. Sutlej, Ravi, Chenab. These catchments are located across the border of eastern rivers. Westerly wave component is another aspect, responsible for rainfall in Jhelum and Indus River though some times Monsoon depressions penetrate up to Jhelum and give heavy rainfall along the route over the Eastern rivers causing the net surplus water availability. The rainfall pattern determines the agriculture output and the crops to be sown along with the area determination. This is particularly dictated by the different regimes of the Monsoon rainfall to mitigate both the surplus and deficient water availability, comprehensive study of statistical data indicates future reservoir/dam location, its construction, and a shift in crops pattern and water utility in commensurate with Climatological dictates in this region of south Asia. (Author)

  2. Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Chinese Caterpillar Fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya

    OpenAIRE

    Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Bawa, Kamaljit S.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversit...

  3. An Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, K. S.

    2009-09-01

    National economy and life of millions of poor largely related to climate sensitive natural resource base and a densely populated 7500 Km long low-lying coastline make India highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Significant changes in the amount, intensity and seasonality of rainfall and extremes in temperature observed in different states are serious challenges to the securities in food, water and energy. Vagaries in monsoons and associated setbacks in agriculture that represents 35% GDP affect economy and rural life, leading to social issues like migration and spread of terrorism. Impact on forest affects the biodiversity, economy and life of tribals. Water availability in certain states has been falling sharply due to the changes in the amount as well as the seasonality of rainfall. Increase in rainfall intensity erodes topsoil in the Western Ghats Mountain and reduces the streamflow and reservoir capacity. Retreat of the Himalayan glaciers may add to the severity of hydrological extremes in the entire north India in the coming years. Irregular onset of monsoon and change in seasonality have already affected the plant biodiversity in the southern state of Kerala. Some seasonal plants became extinct because of the prolonged dry season. Almost all parts of India are increasingly becoming prone to floods or droughts. Drylands are potentially threatened by desertification. Changes in the frequency, intensity and track of cyclones and rising sea level are of serious concern in the coastal zones. Decreasing trend in fish catch in the southern coasts is linked to the changes in coastal circulation, SST and upwelling patterns. Coral environments also suffer from this. Cold waves and heat waves are becoming severe, extending to new regions and resulting in casualties. New viruses and vectors spread fatal deceases, expanding geographical extent. Climate change is likely to retard the present economic growth, because of the massive investment required for

  4. Evaluating the impact of climate change on dam safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents a newly developed flood frequency model which can be used to forecast potential future flood levels based on current climate trends. It can then be used to assess the long-term safety of an important asset. Information from a meteorological station in North Bay, Ontario confirms that there has been a statistically evident trend for warmer winters over the last 3 decades. The model was used to assess the impact of climate change on dam safety. Results suggest that if the current climate trend continues, there may be a significant increase in the magnitude of the inflow design flood (IDF) for dams located on small-to medium-sized watersheds. However, the magnitude of IDF for dams located on large watersheds would likely be reduced. The model can be used to quantify potential future risks both in the design of new dams and in the long-term planning for existing dams. It is noted that there could be an unquantified risk if there was a rapid change in the climate. In order to address this issue, methodologies must predict the direction of change, estimate the magnitude of the changes, and evaluate the reliability of the predictions based on an assessment of the existing data sets and the predicted future conditions. 27 refs., 5 figs

  5. Predicting Climate Change Impacts to the Canadian Boreal Forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trisalyn A. Nelson

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter temperature, precipitation, and seasonality with potentially acute impacts on Canada’s boreal. In this research we predicted future spatial distributions of biodiversity in Canada’s boreal for 2020, 2050, and 2080 using indirect indicators derived from remote sensing and based on vegetation productivity. Vegetation productivity indices, representing annual amounts and variability of greenness, have been shown to relate to tree and wildlife richness in Canada’s boreal. Relationships between historical satellite-derived productivity and climate data were applied to modelled scenarios of future climate to predict and map potential future vegetation productivity for 592 regions across Canada. Results indicated that the pattern of vegetation productivity will become more homogenous, particularly west of Hudson Bay. We expect climate change to impact biodiversity along north/south gradients and by 2080 vegetation distributions will be dominated by processes of seasonality in the north and a combination of cumulative greenness and minimum cover in the south. The Hudson Plains, which host the world’s largest and most contiguous wetland, are predicted to experience less seasonality and more greenness. The spatial distribution of predicted trends in vegetation productivity was emphasized over absolute values, in order to support regional biodiversity assessments and conservation planning.

  6. Current climate variability and future climate change: Estimated growth and poverty impacts for Zambia

    OpenAIRE

    Thurlow, James; Zhu, Tingju; Diao, Xinshen

    2011-01-01

    Economy-wide and hydrological-crop models are combined to estimate and compare the economic impacts of current climate variability and future anthropogenic climate change in Zambia. Accounting for uncertainty, simulation results indicate that, on average, current variability reduces gross domestic product by four percent over a ten-year period and pulls over two percent of the population below the poverty line. Socio-economic impacts are much larger during major drought years, thus underscori...

  7. Impact of Climate change on Milk production of Murrah buffaloes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ashutosh

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Global warming is likely to impact productivity of buffaloes due to their sensitivity to temperature changes. Air temperature, humidity, wind velocity and solar radiation are the main climate variables that affect buffalo production in tropical climate. In the present study sensitivity of lactating Murrah buffaloes to sudden temperature (Tmax, Tmin change and THI have been analyzed from milk production and climatic records (1994-2004 of Karnal. Algorithms were developed and validated on lactating buffaloes during 2005-2006 at the Institute. A sudden change (rise or fall in Maximum/Minimum temperature during summer and winter was observed to affect milk production. The decline in minimum temperature (>3°C during winter and increase (>4°C during summer than normal were observed to negatively impact milk production upto 30% on the next or subsequent days after extreme event. The return to normal milk production depended on severity and time period of thermal stress/ event occurrence. The R² was very low for cool period observed during Feb- April/Sept-Nov and actual effect on milk production was minimum. This indicated that low THI had a relatively small effect on milk production performance. The lactation period of animals are shortened during extreme summer when THI were more than 80 and reproductive functions were also adversely affected. Thermal stressed buffaloes did not exhibit estrus or exhibited estrus for short period. The potential direct effects of possible climate change and global warming on summer season milk production of Murrah buffaloes were evaluated using widely known global circulation model UKMO to represent possible scenarios of future climate. Both milk production and reproductive functions of Murrah buffaloes are likely to be affected due to warming effects.

  8. Climate Change and Impacts Research Experiences for Urban Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchese, P.; Carlson, B. E.; Rosenzweig, C.; Austin, S. A.; Peteet, D. M.; Druyan, L.; Fulakeza, M.; Gaffin, S.; Scalzo, F.; Frost, J.; Moshary, F.; Greenbaum, S.; Cheung, T. K.; Howard, A.; Steiner, J. C.; Johnson, L. P.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change and impacts research for undergraduate urban students is the focus of the Center for Global Climate Research (CGCR). We describe student research and significant results obtained during the Summer 2011. The NSF REU site, is a collaboration between the City University of New York (CUNY) and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). The research teams are mentored by NASA scientists and CUNY faculty. Student projects include: Effects of Stratospheric Aerosols on Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin; Comparison of Aerosol Optical Depth and Angstrom Exponent Retrieved by AERONET, MISR, and MODIS Measurements; White Roofs to the Rescue: Combating the Urban Heat Island Effect; Tropospheric Ozone Investigations in New York City; Carbon Sequestration with Climate Change in Alaskan Peatlands; Validating Regional Climate Models for Western Sub-Sahara Africa; Bio-Remediation of Toxic Waste Sites: Mineral Characteristics of Cyanide-Treated Mining Waste; Assessment of an Ocean Mixing Parameterization for Climate Studies; Comparative Wind Speed through Doppler Sounding with Pulsed Infrared LIDAR; and Satellite Telemetry and Communications. The CGCR also partners with the New York City Research Initiative (NYCRI) at GISS. The center is supported by NSF ATM-0851932 and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA).

  9. Estimating climate change impact on irrigation demand using integrated modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Water is basic element in agriculture, and along with the soil characteristics, it remains the essential for the growth and evolution of plants. Trends of air temperature and precipitation for Slovenia indicate the increase of the air temperature and reduction of precipitation during the vegetation period, which will have a substantial impact on rural economy in Slovenia. The impact of climate change will be substantial for soil the water balance. Distinctive drought periods in past years had great impact on rural plants in light soils. Climate change will most probably also result in drought in soils which otherwise provide optimal water supply for plants. Water balance in the cross section of the rooting depth is significant for the agriculture. Mathematical models enable smaller amount of measurements in a certain area by means of measurements carried out only in characteristic points serving for verification and calibration of the model. Combination of on site measurements and mathematical modelling proved to be an efficient method for understanding of processes in nature. Climate scenarios made for the estimation of the impact of climate change are based on the general circulation models. A study based on a hundred year set of monthly data showed that in Slovenia temperature would increase at min. by 2.3o C, and by 5.6oC at max and by 4.5oC in average. Valid methodology for the estimate of the impact of climate change applies the model using a basic set of data for a thirty year period (1961-1990) and a changed set of climate input parameters on one hand, and, on the other, a comparison of output results of the model. Estimating climate change impact on irrigation demand for West Slovenia for peaches and nectarines grown on Cambisols and Fluvisols was made using computer model SWAP. SWAP is a precise and power too[ for the estimation of elements of soil water balance at the level of cross section of the monitored and studied profile from the soil surface to

  10. The impact of climate change on Fantanele reservoir operating rules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumitrache, Ramona; Galie, Andreea-Cristina

    2014-05-01

    The FP 7 research project ECLISE - Enabling Climate Information Service for Europe has the overall objective to develop an European service that meets the needs of climate information of the Member States of the European Union. In this project, four major areas of impact (cities, coasts, water and energy) are analysed. This paper presents the results of the climate change impact on a reservoir with hydropower use. A case study, for a Romanian reservoir (Fantanele reservoir located on the Somes River corresponding to Mariselu hydropower station), was performed. The operating curves/rules, relying on the monthly average discharges, were designed for current state. The modified discharges derived from hydrological model that assumed four climate models (CNRM_RM5.1_ARPEGE (A), HC_HadRM3Q0_HadCM3Q0 (B), SMHI_RCA3_BCM (C), SMHI_RCA3_ECHAM5 (D)) for future water resources estimation were used to design the modified operating rules in case of climate change. Operation lines in assured regime were determined using "Water Supplies - Demand" balance. The water balance has been achieved, in the cross-section of the Fantanele dam, as difference between natural inflow into the lake and regulated discharge for every 30 years, for each month, of the years 2020-2050, respectively for each of the four cases. In order to assess the future turbinated discharge, needed to be used for the design of future operation rules, the regulated discharges were determined for each month and for each of the four cases, applying graphical - analytical method called "wire stretched". Further, a comparative analysis, on the operation lines, in assured regime designed for the period 1984-2010 (current state) and future state (A, B, C and D cases), was performed. The energy production requires higher water quantities, in all four cases. In addition, the paper will estimate the climate change impact on hydropower production. The amount of energy produced by hydropower station Mariselu was calculated in

  11. Impacts of northern climate changes on Arctic engineering practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potential impacts of climate changes on engineering design practices in the Arctic are discussed with reference to permafrost engineering aspects, hydrology, and coastal and sea ice processes. Permafrost generally remains thermally stable only when mean annual air temperature remains 2-4 degrees below zero and the original surface conditions remain unchanged. It has been demonstrated that a temperature rise of only 1-2 degrees is very critical. The many different climate change forecasts make it difficult to design structures in permafrost with definite levels of confidence over a project's lifetime (i.e. up to 50 years). Consequences of climate warming on transportation-related structures can be estimated to a certain degree by examining experience with natural permafrost surfaces affected by land clearing or with structures built in permafrost. Melting of permafrost will be accompanied by surface settlements, slumping of slopes and banks, and creation of thaw pits and ponds, with eventual distress to many surface structures such as pavements and foundations. Designing for a warmer climate is illustrated for the case of the Bethel Highway, the first in Alaska to be designed for a progressively warmer climate. Increased water flows both from ice melting and increased precipitation in a warmer climate will make forecasting of discharge levels in drainage basins a difficult task. Of great concern to engineers is the potential for increased erosion and sediment loadings in streams. In coastal engineering, the effects of rising sea levels, increased open-water areas, and more severe storms foreseen in a warmer climate will require heavier and more elevated shore protection. On the other hand, shipping and offshore operations will be made easier. 9 refs., 4 figs

  12. Impacts of Climate Change on Brazilian Agriculture : Refocusing Impact Assessments to 2050

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank, (WB)

    2010-01-01

    This report evaluates the requirements for an assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture to guide policy makers on investment priorities and phasing. Because agriculture is vital for national food security and is a strong contributor to Brazil's GDP growth, there is growing concern that Brazilian agriculture is increasingly vulnerable to climate variability and change. To meet nat...

  13. Climate change impacts on northern offshore petroleum operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A review is presented of the possible impacts of climate change on Arctic offshore petroleum operations, focusing on those in the Beaufort Sea region. About 140 wells have been drilled to date in this area, about half from artificial islands, a third from ships, and the rest from offshore platforms. The presence of ice cover nine months of the year, coupled with the variability of the open-water season, makes offshore operations in the Beaufort costly and requires unconventional technological approaches, including the use of ice itself as a construction material for offshore platforms. Changes to be expected in the Beaufort region under climate change scenarios involving a doubling of atmospheric CO2 are summarized. In the Atmospheric Environment Service/Canadian Climate Centre model, results show a 8 degree C rise in February temperatures, a decrease in ice thickness, a 30-d increase in the open water season at 72 degree North Latitude, and higher extreme wave heights. In general, if ice conditions become less severe under a climate warming scenario, offshore petroleum operations will become easier and less costly. Specific examples of easier and less costly operations are illustrated. There would be a tendency to a greater use of floating systems, a longer open-water season would facilitate construction and tanker transport, and could reduce ice-load factors on platforms. The economics of Beaufort operations would still be in question, as conventional offshore technology would still not be possible. 16 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs

  14. Interdisciplinary cooperation on impacts of climate change in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wardell, Lois; Chen, Linling; Strey, Sara

    2012-09-01

    Impact of Climate Change on Resources, Maritime Transport and Geopolitics in the Arctic and the Svalbard Area; Svalbard, Norway, 21-28 August 2011 Drastic changes in the Arctic climate directly relate to resource and transport development and complex geopolitical challenges in the Arctic. To encourage future interdisciplinary cooperation among political, social, and climate scientists, 30 early-career researchers from varied backgrounds—including climate change, resources, polar maritime transport, and geopolitics—assembled in Svalbard, Norway. Ola Johannessen, president of the Norwegian Scientific Academy of Polar Research, led this diverse group to highlight the importance of collaboration across disciplines for broadening the terms in which assessments are defined, thus collapsing distinctions between the physical and the human Arctic. He also highlighted the feasibility of conducting effective assessment exercises within short time frames. The group was also mentored by Willy Østreng, author of Science Without Boundaries: Interdisciplinarity in Research, Society, and Politics, who aided participants in understanding the process of interdisciplinary collaboration rather than creating an assemblage of discrete findings.

  15. Regional Risk Assessment for climate change impacts on coastal aquifers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyalomhe, F; Rizzi, J; Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2015-12-15

    Coastal aquifers have been identified as particularly vulnerable to impacts on water quantity and quality due to the high density of socio-economic activities and human assets in coastal regions and to the projected rising sea levels, contributing to the process of saltwater intrusion. This paper proposes a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology integrated with a chain of numerical models to evaluate potential climate change-related impacts on coastal aquifers and linked natural and human systems (i.e., wells, river, agricultural areas, lakes, forests and semi-natural environments). The RRA methodology employs Multi Criteria Decision Analysis methods and Geographic Information Systems functionalities to integrate heterogeneous spatial data on hazard, susceptibility and risk for saltwater intrusion and groundwater level variation. The proposed approach was applied on the Esino River basin (Italy) using future climate hazard scenarios based on a chain of climate, hydrological, hydraulic and groundwater system models running at different spatial scales. Models were forced with the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the period 2071-2100 over four seasons (i.e., winter, spring, summer and autumn). Results indicate that in future seasons, climate change will cause few impacts on the lower Esino River valley. Groundwater level decrease will have limited effects: agricultural areas, forests and semi-natural environments will be at risk only in a region close to the coastline which covers less than 5% of the total surface of the considered receptors; less than 3.5% of the wells will be exposed in the worst scenario. Saltwater intrusion impact in future scenarios will be restricted to a narrow region close to the coastline (only few hundred meters), and thus it is expected to have very limited effects on the Esino coastal aquifer with no consequences on the considered natural and human systems. PMID:26282744

  16. Climate Change, Human Impacts, and the Resilience of Coral Reefs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, T. P.; Baird, A. H.; Bellwood, D. R.; Card, M.; Connolly, S. R.; Folke, C.; Grosberg, R.; Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Jackson, J. B. C.; Kleypas, J.; Lough, J. M.; Marshall, P.; Nyström, M.; Palumbi, S. R.; Pandolfi, J. M.; Rosen, B.; Roughgarden, J.

    2003-08-01

    The diversity, frequency, and scale of human impacts on coral reefs are increasing to the extent that reefs are threatened globally. Projected increases in carbon dioxide and temperature over the next 50 years exceed the conditions under which coral reefs have flourished over the past half-million years. However, reefs will change rather than disappear entirely, with some species already showing far greater tolerance to climate change and coral bleaching than others. International integration of management strategies that support reef resilience need to be vigorously implemented, and complemented by strong policy decisions to reduce the rate of global warming.

  17. Volcanic Impacts on Short- and Long-Term Climate, Comparison with Anthropogenic Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Czopak, Claudia 1990

    2012-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions cause the formation of sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere, which change radiative forcing and thereby have an impact on the climate system. In this paper, I summarise observed short-term effects, for example surface cooling. I then discuss how short-term volcanic forcing can be transformed into long-term climatic changes by long dynamical feedbacks and briefly look into how volcanic eruptions might increase the possibility of El Niño events. As historical examples for pote...

  18. Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2013-04-01

    Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations

  19. Impacts of climate change on wheat in England and Wales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenov, Mikhail A.

    2008-01-01

    The frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events are likely to increase with global warming. However, it is not clear how these events might affect agricultural crops and whether yield losses resulting from severe droughts or heat stress will increase in the future. The aim of this paper is to analyse changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of two impact indices for wheat: the probability of heat stress around flowering and the severity of drought stress. To compute these indices, we used a wheat simulation model combined with high-resolution climate scenarios based on the output from the Hadley Centre regional climate model at 18 sites in England and Wales. Despite higher temperature and lower summer precipitation predicted in the UK for the 2050s, the impact of drought stress on simulated wheat yield is predicted to be smaller than that at present, because wheat will mature earlier in a warmer climate and avoid severe summer drought. However, the probability of heat stress around flowering that might result in considerable yield losses is predicted to increase significantly. Breeding strategies for the future climate might need to focus on wheat varieties tolerant to high temperature rather than to drought. PMID:18682360

  20. Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanin, Marina; Mangabeira Albernaz, Ana Luisa

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified landcover map, from which 25% of the map's coverage was randomly selected to fuel distribution models. We selected the best geographical distribution models among twelve techniques, validating the predicted distribution for current climate with the landcover map and used the best technique to predict the future distribution. All landcover categories showed changes in area and displacement of the latitudinal/longitudinal centroid. Closed vegetation was the only landcover type predicted to expand its distributional range. The range contractions predicted for other categories were intense, even suggesting extirpation of the sparse vegetation category. The landcover refuges under future climate change represent a small proportion of the South American area and they are disproportionately represented and unevenly distributed, predominantly occupying five of 26 South American countries. The predicted changes, regardless of their direction and intensity, can put biodiversity at risk because they are expected to occur in the near future in terms of the temporal scales of ecological and evolutionary processes. Recognition of the threat of climate change allows more efficient conservation actions. PMID:27618445

  1. Climate change impacts on the design of stormwater drainage infrastructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Mário; Macário, Eduarda; Gaspar, Sónia; Fernandes, Luís; Pinto, Joaquim

    2013-04-01

    In Portugal, as in many other countries of the world, the design of stormwater drainage infrastructure relies on the implicit assumption that the intense precipitation distribution is statistically stationary and based on the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. However, observed changes in recent past climate and projections for future climate suggest differences in precipitation regime in Portugal, in particular, in what respects to the frequency and intensity of extreme events, thus leading to the need to evaluate the impact of potential climate change on IDF curves. The objective of this study is to assess the potential consequences of climate change in the design of drainage systems for rainwater and hence the need to review rules and legislation on this design, based on a comparative analysis between Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves defined in the Regulatory Decree n ° 23/95 of 23rd August, proposed by Matos and Silva (1986), and those obtained with observed data in meteorological stations representing the three rainfall zones recommended for Portugal and with data simulated by the COSMO-CLM regional climate model for recent past (C20) and future (A1B and B1) climate scenarios. The methodology adopted for the delineation of IDF curves, is based on study of Brandão et al. (2001) and includes: (i) precipitation disaggregation process for sub-daily (method fragments) and sub-hourly (disaggregation coefficients suggested by Brandão et al. 2001) scales; (ii) preliminary statistical exploratory analysis and fitting of the Gumbel distribution function to time series of maximum precipitation intensity for each of the ten durations; (iii) the use of the Gumbel inverse probability distribution to estimate maximum precipitation intensity values for eight return periods; (iv) linearization of IDF curves with logarithms and the estimation of the parameters a and b with robust regression after; and (v) correction of the bias introduced by the COSMO

  2. Modelling impacts of climate change on arable crop diseases: progress, challenges and applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newbery, Fay; Qi, Aiming; Fitt, Bruce Dl

    2016-08-01

    Combining climate change, crop growth and crop disease models to predict impacts of climate change on crop diseases can guide planning of climate change adaptation strategies to ensure future food security. This review summarises recent developments in modelling climate change impacts on crop diseases, emphasises some major challenges and highlights recent trends. The use of multi-model ensembles in climate change modelling and crop modelling is contributing towards measures of uncertainty in climate change impact projections but other aspects of uncertainty remain largely unexplored. Impact assessments are still concentrated on few crops and few diseases but are beginning to investigate arable crop disease dynamics at the landscape level. PMID:27471781

  3. Tanzanian rangelands in a changing climate: Impacts, adaptations and mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sangeda A. Z.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Livestock are central to the livelihoods of Tanzanians who rely on them for income via sales of milk, meat, skins and draught power. Owning livestock is amongst the ways in which many Tanzanians could diversify their risks, increase assets and improve their resilience to changes in climate. Though local coping strategies can deal with shocks in the short-term, they are hardly able to cope with more frequent and severe climate events. Observably, temperature, rainfall and atmospheric CO2 concentration interact with grazing and land cover change to influence rangeland quality and composition. Increased temperature increases drought stress and tissue lignifications in plants and, consequently, affects their digestibility and decomposition rate. Increased temperature and lower rainfall also increases vegetation flammability resulting in a shift in species composition due to increased fire frequency. Literature indicates that, Tanzania rangelands receiving between 400 and 1000 mm of rain per year (e.g. Kongwa, Monduli, Kiteto, Simanjiro, Ngorongoro, Babati, Hanang, Mbulu and Karatu have greatest impact on climate change on surface drainage. A 10% drop in rainfall of 1000 mm per year in a rangeland results in a decline in surface drainage of only 17%, while in areas of 500 mm per year will result in a 50% decline. Interventions such as controlled animal stocking rates, sustainable yield and use of good pasture will lessen the negative impacts of climate change on rangelands. Opportunities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions on rangelands include maintaining or increasing carbon sequestration through better soil management and reducing methane production by altering animal management practices on rangelands. There is a need to focus on enabling herd mobility through securing better access to water resources, land use planning, and improve early warning systems and supporting a diversification of livelihoods.

  4. Anthropogenic climate change impacts on ponds: a thermal mass perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Matthews

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Small freshwater aquatic lentic systems (lakes and ponds are sensitive to anthropogenic climate change through shifts in ambient air temperatures and patterns of precipitation. Shifts in air temperatures will influence lentic water temperatures through convection and by changing evaporation rates. Shifts in the timing, amount, and intensity of precipitation will alter the thermal mass of lentic systems even in the absence of detectable ambient air temperature changes. These effects are likely to be strongest in ponds (standing water bodies primarily mixed by temperature changes than by wind, for whom precipitation makes up a large component of inflows. Although historical water temperature datasets are patchy for lentic systems, thermal mass effects are likely to outweigh impacts from ambient air temperatures in most locations and may show considerable independence from those trends. Thermal mass-induced changes in water temperature will thereby alter a variety of population- and community-level processes in aquatic macroinvertebrates.

  5. Estimating Non-Market Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A number of studies over the past few decades have attempted to estimate the potential impacts of climate change and climate policy. For reasons related to, inter alia, our incomplete understanding of the workings of many natural and social systems, the tremendous spatial and temporal variability in these systems, and the long time frames over which the issue of climate change will play out, there are large degrees of uncertainty in these estimates. Some of the most rancorous debates, however, have focused on those studies that have attempted to place economic values on these impacts. This should not be surprising as the outcomes of these studies have played an important role in the debates over climate policy. Rightly or wrongly, the estimates presented in these studies are often held up against similar estimates of the costs of mitigating against climate change. The process of economic valuation of environmental and social issues is still relatively young, much less its application to the potential impacts of climate change and climate policy. Issues such as climate change push existing techniques to their limits, and possibly beyond. Among the topics that have raised the most concern are the choice of the proper baseline against which to make comparisons, the treatment of uncertainty in human and natural systems, incomplete accounting, the actual valuation of specific impacts, and the aggregation of impacts over time and across widely differing societies. Some of the more recent studies have tried to address these issues, albeit not always satisfactorily. One aspect that makes the economic valuation of environmental and social issues difficult is that it requires addressing impacts that are not typically associated with economic markets, so called nonmarket impacts. In addition to not being traded in markets, many of these impacts affect goods and services that have the characteristic of being public goods, i.e. it is not possible to restrict their use to a

  6. Hurricanes and Climate Change: Global Systems and Local Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santer, J.

    2011-12-01

    With funding from NOAA, the Miami Science Museum has been working with exhibit software developer Ideum to create an interactive exhibit exploring the global dimensions and local impacts of climate change. A particular focus is on climate-related impacts on coastal communities, including the potential effects on South Florida of ocean acidification, rising sea level, and the possibility of more intense hurricanes. The exhibit is using a 4-foot spherical display system in conjunction with a series of touchscreen kiosks and accompanying flat screens to create a user-controlled, multi-user interface that lets visitors control the sphere and choose from a range of global and local content they wish to explore. The exhibit has been designed to promote engagement of diverse, multigenerational audiences through development of a fully bilingual user interface that promotes social interaction and conversation among visitors as they trade off control of global content on the sphere and related local content on the flat screens. The open-source learning module will be adaptable by other museums, to explore climate impacts specific to their region.

  7. Toward Collective Impact for Climate Resilience: Maximizing Climate Change Education for Preparedness, Adaptation, and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ledley, T. S.; Niepold, F., III; McCaffrey, M.

    2014-12-01

    Increasing the capacity of society to make informed climate decisions based on scientific evidence is imperative. While a wide range of education programs and communication efforts to improve understanding and facilitate responsible effective decision-making have been developed in recent years, these efforts have been largely disconnected. The interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary nature of the problems and potential responses to climate change requires a broad range of expertise and a strategy that overcomes the inherent limitations of isolated programs and efforts. To extend the reach and impact of climate change education and engagement efforts, it is necessary to have a coordination that results in greater collective impact. The Collective Impact model, as described by Kania & Kramer (2011), requires five elements: 1) a common agenda; 2) shared measurement systems; 3) mutually reinforcing activities; 4) continuous communication; and 5) a well-funded backbone support organization. The CLEAN Network has facilitated a series of discussions at six professional meetings from late 2012 through spring 2014 to begin to develop and define the elements of collective impact on climate change education and engagement. These discussions have focused on getting input from the community on a common agenda and what a backbone support organization could do to help extend their reach and impact and enable a longer-term sustainability. These discussions will continue at future meetings, with the focus shifting to developing a common agenda and shared metrics. In this presentation we will summarize the outcomes of these discussions thus far, especially with respect to what activities a backbone support organization might provide to help increase the collective impact of climate change education effort and invite others to join the development of public-private partnership to improve the nations climate literacy. The cumulative input into this evolving discussion on collective

  8. A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    OpenAIRE

    Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; S. Schaphoff; Frieler, K.; C. Müller; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.

    2013-01-01

    In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of tempe...

  9. Climate change impacts on global agricultural land availability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change can affect both crop yield and the land area suitable for agriculture. This study provides a spatially explicit estimate of the impact of climate change on worldwide agricultural land availability, considering uncertainty in climate change projections and ambiguity with regard to land classification. Uncertainty in general circulation model (GCM) projections is addressed using data assembled from thirteen GCMs and two representative emission scenarios (A1B and B1 employ CO2-equivalent greenhouse gas concentrations of 850 and 600 ppmv, respectively; B1 represents a greener economy). Erroneous data and the uncertain nature of land classifications based on multiple indices (i.e. soil properties, land slope, temperature, and humidity) are handled with fuzzy logic modeling. It is found that the total global arable land area is likely to decrease by 0.8-1.7% under scenario A1B and increase by 2.0-4.4% under scenario B1. Regions characterized by relatively high latitudes such as Russia, China and the US may expect an increase of total arable land by 37-67%, 22-36% and 4-17%, respectively, while tropical and sub-tropical regions may suffer different levels of lost arable land. For example, South America may lose 1-21% of its arable land area, Africa 1-18%, Europe 11-17%, and India 2-4%. When considering, in addition, land used for human settlements and natural conservation, the net potential arable land may decrease even further worldwide by the end of the 21st century under both scenarios due to population growth. Regionally, it is likely that both climate change and population growth will cause reductions in arable land in Africa, South America, India and Europe. However, in Russia, China and the US, significant arable land increases may still be possible. Although the magnitudes of the projected changes vary by scenario, the increasing or decreasing trends in arable land area are regionally consistent.

  10. Health impact assessment of climate change in Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global climate change (GCC) may have serious and irreversible impacts. Improved methods are needed to predict and quantify health impacts, so that appropriate risk management strategies can be focused on vulnerable areas. The disability-adjusted life year (DALY) is proposed as an effective tool in environmental health impact assessment (HIA). The DALY accounts for years of life lost to premature death and/or morbidity. Both the DALY and the determinants-of-health approach are applied to HIA of GCC in Bangladesh. Based on historical data, a major storm event may result in approximately 290 DALY per 1000 population, including both deaths and injuries, compared to a current all-cause rate of about 280 per 1000 in the region. A more precise result would require a large input of data; however, this level of analysis may be sufficient to rank risks, and to motivate and target risk management efforts

  11. Potential impacts of climate change on production of biofuels in agriculture the Nordic and Baltic Region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Porter, John R.

    2006-01-01

    Report prepared for: "Nordic Project on Climate and Energy; Impacts of Climate change on Renewable Energy Sources and their role in the Nordic Energy System"......Report prepared for: "Nordic Project on Climate and Energy; Impacts of Climate change on Renewable Energy Sources and their role in the Nordic Energy System"...

  12. Impact of climate change on carbon cycle in freshwater ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kankaala, P.; Ojala, A.; Tulonen, T.; Haapamaeki, J.; Arvola, L. [Helsinki Univ., Lammi (Finland). Lammi Biological Station

    1996-12-31

    The impacts of the expected climate change on Finnish lake ecosystems were studied with the biota of the mesohumic Lake Paeaejaervi, southern Finland. Experimental conditions, from small-scale experiments on single species level to a large-scale ecosystem manipulation, were established to simulate directly the future climate and/or loading of nutrients and dissolved organic matter (DOM) from the drainage area. The experimental studies were accomplished by modelling the carbon flow in the pelagic food web as well as the growth of littoral macrophytes. The main hypothese tested were as follows: As a consequence of the climate change (rising temperature and increasing precipitation) the loading of nutrients and dissolved organic matter (DOM) from the drainage area to the lake will increase. In the pelagic zone this will be first reflected i higher productivity of primary producers and bacteria, but will later affect the entire food chain. Increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration and ambient temperature as well as longer growing season will enhance the overall productivity of littoral macrophytes. The higher productivity of the littoral zone will be reflected in the pelagic zone an thus may change the whole ecosystem of the lake

  13. Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    An-Yuan Tsai and Wen-Cheng Huang

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper establishes a comprehensive assessment model to measure the regional impact of climate change on _ water resources. Working from future rainfall data simulated by _ high-resolution GCM model JMA/MRI TL959L60 in a SRES-A1B scenario, we first apply climate change to an assessment model of renewable water resources to estimate the volume of renewable water resources on a regional basis. We then conduct a water resources system simulation based on estimates of future water needs, regional reservoir effective capacity and renewable water resource volume. This paper uses three water resource assessment indicators: the annual water utilization ratio indicator, the water shortage indicator and the extreme event occurrence indicator. Through fuzzy comprehensive assessment, we divide the evaluation set into five levels: very good (L1, good (L2, fair (L3, poor (L4 and very poor (L5. Results indicate that, given the effects of future climate change (2080 - 2099 and the increase in water demand, future water resources conditions in northern and eastern Taiwan will not be significantly different from historical levels (1979 - 1998 and will maintain a _ level (L2, while the conditions in southern Taiwan will visibly deteriorate from its historical _ level (L3 to _ (L4; and the future conditions for central Taiwan will be _ (L4. The initiation of adaptation options for water management in southern and central Taiwan would be needed by increasing reservoir capacity and reducing overall water use.

  14. Modelling the economic impacts of addressing climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This Power Point report presents highlights of the latest economic modelling of Canada's Kyoto commitment to address climate change. It presents framework assumptions and a snapshot under 4 scenarios. The objective of this report is to evaluate the national, sectoral, provincial and territorial impacts of the federal reference case policy package in which the emissions reduction target is 170 Mt from a business-as-usual scenario. The reference case policy package also includes 30 Mt of sinks from current packages of which 20 Mt are derived from the forestry sector and the remainder from agricultural sector. The report examined 4 scenarios based on 2 international carbon prices ($10 and $50) per tonne of carbon dioxide in 2010. The scenarios were also based on the fiscal assumptions that climate change initiatives and revenue losses would directly affect the governments' balances, or that the government balances are maintained by increasing personal income tax. A comparison of impacts under each of the 4 scenarios to 2010 was presented. The model presents impacts on GDP, employment, disposable income per household, and energy prices. 4 tabs., 4 figs

  15. Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Payne, Mark; Barange, Manuel; Cheung, William W. L.;

    2016-01-01

    Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated with a...... projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability...... uncertainty is rarely treated explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gains on the seasonal-to-decadal time-scale.Weconclude that all parts of marine science could benefit from a greater exchange of ideas, particularly concerning such a universal problem such as the treatment of...

  16. The Impact of China-EU Trade on Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Yunfeng Yan; Laike Yang; Jan Priewe

    2011-01-01

    International trade has a significant impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and global climate change. In this respect, trade between China and the European Union, as the world’s two biggest exporters, is critical to the global GHG emission reduction efforts. The EU-15 is committed to reducing its CO2 emissions under the Kyoto Protocol. However, if the EU reaches its pledged targets by importing CO2 intensive products from China, thereby effectively outsourcing its own emissions to an ex...

  17. Assessment of impacts on ground water resources in Libya and vulnerability to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    S. P. Bindra; Hamid, A; S. Abulifa; H.S. Al Reiani; Hammuda Khalifa Abdalla

    2014-01-01

    This paper is designed to present the likely impact of climate change on groundwater resources in general and Libya in particular. State of the art reviews on recent research studies, and methodology to assess the impact of climate change on groundwater resources shows that climate change poses uncertainties to the supply and management of water resources. It outlines to demonstrate that how climate change impact assessment plays a vital role in forming the sensitive water balance rarely achi...

  18. Identifying future threats: impact of climate change on wheat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenov, M. A.

    2009-04-01

    The frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events are likely to increase with global warming. However, it is not clear how these events might affect agricultural crops and whether yield losses resulting from severe droughts or heat stress will increase in the future. The aim of this paper is to analyse changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of two impact indices for wheat: the probability of heat stress around flowering and the severity of drought stress. To compute these indices, we used a wheat simulation model combined with high-resolution climate scenarios based on the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator and the output from the Hadley Centre regional climate model at 18 sites in England and Wales. Despite higher temperature and lower summer precipitation predicted in the UK for the 2050s, the reduction in grain yield related to drought stress is predicted to be smaller than that at present, because wheat will mature earlier in a warmer climate and avoid severe summer drought. However, the probability of heat stress around flowering, that affects pollination and might result in considerable yield losses, is predicted to increase significantly. Breeding strategies for the future climate might need to focus on wheat varieties tolerant to high temperature rather than to drought.

  19. The Impact of Project-Based Climate Change Learning Experiences on Students' Broad Climate Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeWaters, J.; Powers, S. E.; Dhaniyala, S.

    2014-12-01

    Evidence-based pedagogical approaches such as project- and inquiry-based techniques have been shown to promote effective learning in science and engineering. The impact of project-based learning experiences on middle school (MS), high school (HS), and undergraduate (UG) students' climate literacy was investigated as part of a NASA Innovations in Climate Education (NICE) project. Project-based modules were developed and taught by MS and HS teachers who participated in climate change education workshops. UG students enrolled in a climate science course completed independent research projects that provided the basis for several of the HS/MS modules. All modules required students to acquire and analyze historical temperature data and future climate predictions, and apply their analysis to the solution of a societal or environmental problem related to our changing climate. Three versions of a quantitative survey were developed and used in a pre-test/post-test research design to help evaluate the project's impact on MS, HS, and UG students' climate literacy, which includes broad climate knowledge as well as affective and behavioral aspects. Content objectives were guided primarily by the 2009 document, Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences. All three groups of students made modest but statistically significant cognitive (p<<0.001) and affective (p<0.01) gains; UG students also showed an increase in behavior scores (p=0.001). Results of an ANCOVA showed significant differences in students' cognitive (p<0.001), behavioral (p=0.005) and self-efficacy (p=0.012) outcomes among the 9 participating MS and HS classrooms, where both teacher and module content varied. The presentation will include a description of some key aspects of the project-based curricula developed and used in this research, the development and content of the climate literacy survey, and the interpretation of specific pre/post changes in participating students relative to the content

  20. Health Impacts in a Changing Climate - An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis, V. R.; Phalkey, R. K.

    2016-05-01

    In the past decades the topic of climate change has been subjected to intense scientific scrutiny, and since the mid-1990's it has become an increasingly political issue. Because of increased temperatures and more frequent and intense extreme weather events, the number of direct injuries and deaths will increase, along with infectious diseases, whether food, water or vector-borne; respiratory and cardiovascular diseases are expected to rise due to worsened air pollution and extreme heat. In a context of on-going environmental degradation, local food-producing systems, both marine and terrestrial, will be affected and the risk of malnutrition, especially in children, will increase. These impacts on health and livelihood are expected to be significant factors in the spread of regional social crises, potentially leading to forced migration, conflicts and increased poverty. The link between health and climate change operates through a variety of pathways that are now well established. In addition to taking climate mitigation measures, it will also be necessary to take adaptation measures, such as strengthening health systems, improving preparedness and developing early warning systems. There is now a broad scientific consensus on the issue and the science is sufficiently robust to enable a coordinated response to meet this global challenge.

  1. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Alaska Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, D.

    2009-12-01

    The assessment of the Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States includes analyses of the potential climate change impacts in Alaska. The resulting findings are discussed in this presentation, with the effects on water resources discussed separately. Major findings include: Summers are getting hotter and drier, with increasing evaporation outpacing increased precipitation. Climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health. These impacts are different from region to region and will grow under projected climate change. Wildfires and insect problems are increasing. Climate plays a key role in determining the extent and severity of insect outbreaks and wildfire. The area burned in North America’s northern forest that spans Alaska and Canada tripled from the 1960s to the 1990s. During the 1990s, south-central Alaska experienced the largest outbreak of spruce bark beetles in the world because of warmer weather in all seasons of the year. Under changing climate conditions, the average area burned per year in Alaska is projected to double by the middle of this century10. By the end of this century, area burned by fire is projected to triple under a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario and to quadruple under a higher emissions scenario. Close-bodied lakes are declining in area. A continued decline in the area of surface water would present challenges for the management of natural resources and ecosystems on National Wildlife Refuges in Alaska. These refuges, which cover over 77 million acres (21 percent of Alaska) and comprise 81 percent of the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System, provide a breeding habitat for millions of waterfowl and shorebirds that winter in the lower 48 states. Permafrost thawing will damage public and private infrastructure. Land subsidence (sinking) associated with the thawing of permafrost presents substantial challenges to engineers attempting to preserve infrastructure in

  2. Relationship Between Climate Change Impact, Migration and Socioeconomic Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sann Oo, Kyaw

    2016-06-01

    Geospatial data are available in raster and vector formats and some of them are available in open data form. The technique and tools to handle those data are also available in open source. Though it is free of charge, the knowledge to utilize those data is limited to non-educated in the specific field. The data and technology should be promoted to those levels to utilize in required fields with priceless in developing countries. Before utilize open data, which are required to verify with local knowledge to become usable information for the local people as priceless data resources. Developing country, which economic is based in agriculture, required more information about precise weather data and weather variation by the climate change impact for their socioeconomic development. This study found that rural to urban migration occurs in the developing countries such agriculture based country likes Myanmar when the agriculture economic are affected by unpredictable impact by the climate change. The knowledge sharing using open data resources to non-educated local people is one of the curable solutions for the agriculture economy development in the country. Moreover, the study will find ways to reduce the rural to urban migration.

  3. A Pilot Study Assesing Climate Change Impacts on Cereals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topcu, Sevilay; Sen, Burak; Turkes, Murat

    2010-05-01

    The spatial and temporal impacts of climate change on the growth and yield of major cereals (first and second-crop corn) as well as wheat grown in Cukurova Region in the southern Turkey have been assessed, by combining the outputs from a regional climate model with a crop growth simulation model. With its 1.1 million ha of agricultural land, the Cukurova Region is one of the major agricultural production regions in Turkey. Wheat dominates in rain-fed areas while corn crops are grown in more than 50 % of the irrigated land in the region. Thus, the Region is providing half of the country's total cereal production. Since the region has a typical Mediterranean climate with almost no rain and high temperatures during the summer months, agricultural production is vulnerable to changes in climate in terms of decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures and consequently shortage of water resources. To predict the future climate for the period 2070-2100, the regional climate model RegCM3 conditions was performed using IPCC's SRESS-A2 scenario, and climatic parameter such as daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, radiation as well as total annual precipitation were selected for the simulation study. Data for the period 1961 to 1990 were used as historical reference. The WOFOST model was used to simulate cereal growths and yields for two different water availability senarios: 1) potential production and 2) water-limited production conditions. Potential growth represents the conditions where no limiting factor such as water and nutrients is present, however due to the water-limited production situation, water for irrigation is limited as a consequence of water shortage. The detailed results of previous field experiments carried out with three cereal crops in different locations with different regional soil and climate conditions were used for the verification of the WOFOST model. According to the verification results, the model simulated the yield with less than 5

  4. Inventory of Research on the Impacts of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Cesar, H. (eds.); O. Linden; Walker, R.

    2004-01-01

    Climate change is one of the greatest threats for the global environment today. Global mean temperature has risen by about 0.6 degrees C during the 20th century, greater than during any other century in the last 1000 years. Subsequently, climate change is likely to have detrimental effects on all global natural and anthropogenic systems. Climate change will have consequences for the structure and function of ecosystems and all the major global biomes. Also agricultural production and producti...

  5. Chapter 1. Impacts of the oceans on climate change.

    OpenAIRE

    Reid, PC; Fischer, AC; Lewis-Brown, E.; Meredith, MP; Sparrow, M; Andersson, AJ; Antia, A.; Bates, NR; Bathmann, U.; Beaugrand, G.; Brix, H.; Dye, S.; Edwards, M.; T. Furevik; Gangstø, R.

    2010-01-01

    The oceans play a key role in climate regulation especially in part buffering (neutralising) the effects of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising global temperatures. This chapter examines how the regulatory processes performed by the oceans alter as a response to climate change and assesses the extent to which positive feedbacks from the ocean may exacerbate climate change. There is clear evidence for rapid change in the oceans. As the main heat store for the wor...

  6. Climate change impact on China food security in 2050

    OpenAIRE

    Ye, Liming; Xiong, Wei; Li, Zhengguo; Yang, Peng; Wu, Wenbin; Yang, Guixia; Fu, Yijiang; zou, Jinqiu; Chen, Zhongxin; Van Ranst, Eric; Tang, Huajun

    2013-01-01

    International audience Climate change is now affecting global agriculture and food production worldwide. Nonetheless the direct link between climate change and food security at the national scale is poorly understood. Here we simulated the effect of climate change on food security in China using the CERES crop models and the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios including CO2 fertilization effect. Models took into account population size, urbanization rate, cropland area, cropping intensity and te...

  7. Uncertainties in Agricultural Impact Assessments of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Montesino San Martin, Manuel

    Future food security will be challenged by the likely increase in demand, changes in consumption patterns and the effects of climate change. Framing food availability requires adequate agricultural production planning. Decision-making can benefit from improved understanding of the uncertainties...... for adaptation to climate change (and a significant aspect for the design of the Representative Agricultural Pathways)....

  8. Climate change impacts and uncertainties in flood risk management: Examples from the North Sea Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lawrence, D.; Graham, L.P.; Besten, J. Den; Andreasson, J.; Bergstroem, S.; Engen-Skaugen, T.; Foerland, E.; Groen, R.; Jespersen, M.; Jong, K. de; Olsson, J.

    2012-07-01

    This report presents methods used for estimating the hydrological impacts of climate change and their uncertainties, the expected impacts on extreme flows in Norway, and in Sweden with particular reference to Lake Vaenern, and examples of climate change impacts on river discharge and on agriculture in the Netherlands. Work considering changes in extreme precipitation is also reported, as are methods and strategies for communicating climate change impacts in flood management practice. (eb)

  9. Global warming and climate change in Amazonia: Climate-vegetation feedback and impacts on water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marengo, José; Nobre, Carlos A.; Betts, Richard A.; Cox, Peter M.; Sampaio, Gilvan; Salazar, Luis

    This chapter constitutes an updated review of long-term climate variability and change in the Amazon region, based on observational data spanning more than 50 years of records and on climate-change modeling studies. We start with the early experiments on Amazon deforestation in the late 1970s, and the evolution of these experiments to the latest studies on greenhouse gases emission scenarios and land use changes until the end of the twenty-first century. The "Amazon dieback" simulated by the HadCM3 model occurs after a "tipping point" of CO2 concentration and warming. Experiments on Amazon deforestation and change of climate suggest that once a critical deforestation threshold (or tipping point) of 40-50% forest loss is reached in eastern Amazonia, climate would change in a way which is dangerous for the remaining forest. This may favor a collapse of the tropical forest, with a substitution of the forest by savanna-type vegetation. The concept of "dangerous climate change," as a climate change, which induces positive feedback, which accelerate the change, is strongly linked to the occurrence of tipping points, and it can be explained as the presence of feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, particularly involving a weakening of the current terrestrial carbon sink and a possible reversal from a sink (as in present climate) to a source by the year 2050. We must, therefore, currently consider the drying simulated by the Hadley Centre model(s) as having a finite probability under global warming, with a potentially enormous impact, but with some degree of uncertainty.

  10. Impact of climate change on arid lands agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    El-Beltagy Adel

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The planet earth, on which we live in communities, is being increasingly 'ruptured' because of human activities; its carrying capacity is under great stress because of demographic pressures. The pressure is especially affecting the people living in the dry areas because of the marginal and fragile nature of the resources they have access to. There are over 2,000 million hectares of land that have been degraded, with a loss of agrobiodiversity, increased water scarcity and increased natural resource destruction. Superimposed on this is the fact that the neglectful and exploitive use of natural resources has set the train of global climate change in motion. It is anticipated that the impact of climate change will cut across all boundaries. Crops, cropping systems, rotations and biota will undergo transformation. To maintain the balance in the system, there is a need for new knowledge, alternative policies and institutional changes. The marginalized people in dry areas are likely to be most seriously hit by the shifts in moisture and temperature regimes as a result of the global climate change. To help them cope with the challenges, there is a need for a new paradigm in agricultural research and technology transfer that makes full use of modern science and technology in conjunction with traditional knowledge. This necessitates more investment by international agencies and national governments for supporting the relevant integrated research and sustainable development efforts, with full participation of the target communities. Only such an approach can enable the vulnerable communities of the dryland areas to use the natural resources in a sustainable manner and thus help protect the environment for future generations. The clock is ticking and the future of the world lies in the collective responsibility and wisdom of all nations on this planet. This should be reflected in the endorsement of a solid future plan.

  11. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, or ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. Climate ...

  12. Climate change impacts on the temperature of recharge water in a temporate climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murdock, E. A.

    2015-12-01

    Groundwater outflows into headwater streams play an important role in controlling local stream temperature and maintaining habitat for cool and cold water fisheries. Because of the ecological and economic importance of these fisheries, there is significant concern about the impacts of climate change on these habitats. Many studies of stream temperature changes under climate change assume that groundwater outflows will vary with long-term mean air temperature, perhaps with a temporal lag to account for the relatively slow rate of heat diffusion through soils. This assumption, however, ignores the fact that climate change will also impact the temporal patterns of recharge in some regions. In Southern Wisconsin, much of the annual recharge comes from the spring snowmelt event, as a large amount of meltwater is released onto saturated soils with little to no active transpiration. Using the Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model populated with climate date from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), we show that the temperature of water passing below the rooting zone in a simulated corn planting in Southern Wisconsin will change significantly less than the air temperature by midcentury. This finding highlights the importance of understanding the variability of heat flow mechanisms in the subsurface while assessing climate change impacts on surface water resources. In landscapes such as Wisconsin's driftless area, where deep aquifers feed numerous localized headwater streams, meltwater-driven recharge may provide a buffer against rising air temperatures for some time into the future. Fully understanding this dynamic will allow for targeted conservation efforts in those streams that are likely to show higher than average resilience to rising temperatures, but which remain vulnerable to development, stormwater runoff, agricultural pollution and other ecological threats. In a world with dwindling coldwater resources, identifying and

  13. Socio-economic implications of climate change: Canadian climate impacts program study results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A review is presented of results of the Canadian Climate Impacts Program series of studies examining the socio-economic impacts of climate change. In the Great Lakes basin, climate change may impact on numerous economic sectors. Lower lake levels could result in increased dredging of ports and channels or reduced cargo loads. Lower lake levels added to increased use of water could result in a loss of 4,165 GWh of power generation for the Canadian hydro-electric generating stations on the Great Lakes. A warmer climate may lead to crop failures in the agricultural heartlands of Ontario, as the advantages of higher temperature may be offset by moisture stress. The downhill ski industry may be decimated in southern Ontario. Rising sea levels may cause increased risk of storm surges and river flooding in the coastal areas of Canada. A warmer climate would probably be beneficial to aquaculture and allow longer inshore fishing seasons. Costs to oil and gas exploration due to sea ice and icebergs would be practically eliminated. Results for the Praire provinces were mixed: one study concluded that impacts would be minimal while another predicted a moderate reduction in spring wheat potential. 24 refs., 1 fig

  14. Chicxulub impact, climate changes and mass-extinctions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smit, J.

    2010-03-01

    sections mentioned above. At the K/Pg itself, no unambiguous indications for a sealevel change have been documented anywhere, although in the Gulf sometimes a tsunami or gravity flow deposit with Chicxulub ejecta has been mistaken for a transgressive sequence. Therefore, there is no obvious connection between any sealevel change and climate changes around K/PgB. The impact ejecta (Ir, shocked qz) are global and occur exactly at K/PgB. Thus far, only one impact, the Chicxulub impact has been identified. However, the occurrence of multiple impacts remains a distinct possibility, as double craters exist, and a shower of impacts, possibly as result of a breakup event (Baptistina, Bottke, 2007) in the asteroid belt is possible. However, such hypothesis requires extraordinary evidence because of the extremely small probability! Thus far, the evidence for an impact after K/PgB is based on ambiguous evidence in reworked sediments in Beloc, Haiti and Coxquihui, Mexico, but nowhere outside the Gulf of Mexico. Evidence for a Chicxulub impact about 0.3 Ma before another, equally large, impact at K/PgB likewise has been interpreted from disturbed sediments in the Gulf, and is therefore highly suspect (Keller, 2009). Widespread evidence from the double K/PgB ejecta layer in coal-swamp deposits in the US western interior demonstrates that the K/PgB impact and the Chicxulub impact are the same. This leaves the Chicxulub impact as the only agent that can be held responsible for the mass-extinctions. The question is, what environmental or climate changes were induced by the impact, and on what timescales? Pre-impact signals for change (diversity, stable isotope shifts) are influenced by leaching or bioturbation of the uppermost 10 cm of the Cretaceous. He-isotopes do not support a scenario where the Chicxulub impact occurs within a pedestal of cometary debris, the arrival of which could lead to environmental stress. The effects of the Chicxulub impact must have been almost immediate. Even

  15. Minimizing Climate Change Impacts through the Application of Green Building Principles

    OpenAIRE

    Baharuddin

    2014-01-01

    The presentation explains the climate change and the role of green building in minimising the impact of climate change. The presentation covers the emerging issues, sustainable building, green building certification which covers: sustainable site, water efficiency, energy and

  16. The impact of SciDAC on US climate change research and the IPCC AR4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SciDAC has invested heavily in climate change research. We offer a candid opinion as to the impact of the DOE laboratories' SciDAC projects on the upcoming Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  17. Impacts of Climate Change on Dengue Risk in Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Pereda, Paula Carvalho; Menezes, Tatiane; Denisard C. O. Alves

    2014-01-01

    Climate has relevant impacts on human health. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), climate-sensitive health problems kill millions of people every year and undermine the physical and psychological health of millions (WHO, 2012). In the particular case of vector-borne diseases, climate conditions assure the vectors' survival and reproduction and, consequently, the transmission of the diseases (Kelly-Hope and Thomson, 2008). Increases in heat, precipitation, and humidity can allow ...

  18. Impact of carbonaceous aerosol emissions on regional climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roeckner, E.; Stier, P.; Feichter, J.; Kloster, S.; Esch, M.; Fischer-Bruns, I.

    2006-11-01

    The past and future evolution of atmospheric composition and climate has been simulated with a version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The system consists of the atmosphere, including a detailed representation of tropospheric aerosols, the land surface, and the ocean, including a model of the marine biogeochemistry which interacts with the atmosphere via the dust and sulfur cycles. In addition to the prescribed concentrations of carbon dioxide, ozone and other greenhouse gases, the model is driven by natural forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic aerosol), and by emissions of mineral dust, sea salt, sulfur, black carbon (BC) and particulate organic matter (POM). Transient climate simulations were performed for the twentieth century and extended into the twenty-first century, according to SRES scenario A1B, with two different assumptions on future emissions of carbonaceous aerosols (BC, POM). In the first experiment, BC and POM emissions decrease over Europe and China but increase at lower latitudes (central and South America, Africa, Middle East, India, Southeast Asia). In the second experiment, the BC and POM emissions are frozen at their levels of year 2000. According to these experiments the impact of projected changes in carbonaceaous aerosols on the global mean temperature is negligible, but significant changes are found at low latitudes. This includes a cooling of the surface, enhanced precipitation and runoff, and a wetter surface. These regional changes in surface climate are caused primarily by the atmospheric absorption of sunlight by increasing BC levels and, subsequently, by thermally driven circulations which favour the transport of moisture from the adjacent oceans. The vertical redistribution of solar energy is particularly large during the dry season in central Africa when the anomalous atmospheric heating of up to 60 W m-2 and a corresponding decrease in surface solar radiation leads to a marked surface cooling, reduced

  19. Ocean Biological Pump Sensitivities and Implications for Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanou, Anastasia

    2013-01-01

    The ocean is one of the principal reservoirs of CO2, a greenhouse gas, and therefore plays a crucial role in regulating Earth's climate. Currently, the ocean sequesters about a third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, mitigating the human impact on climate. At the same time, the deeper ocean represents the largest carbon pool in the Earth System and processes that describe the transfer of carbon from the surface of the ocean to depth are intimately linked to the effectiveness of carbon sequestration.The ocean biological pump (OBP), which involves several biogeochemical processes, is a major pathway for transfer of carbon from the surface mixed layer into the ocean interior. About 75 of the carbon vertical gradient is due to the carbon pump with only 25 attributed to the solubility pump. However, the relative importance and role of the two pumps is poorly constrained. OBP is further divided to the organic carbon pump (soft tissue pump) and the carbonate pump, with the former exporting about 10 times more carbon than the latter through processes like remineralization.Major uncertainties about OBP, and hence in the carbon uptake and sequestration, stem from uncertainties in processes involved in OBP such as particulate organicinorganic carbon sinkingsettling, remineralization, microbial degradation of DOC and uptakegrowth rate changes of the ocean biology. The deep ocean is a major sink of atmospheric CO2 in scales of hundreds to thousands of years, but how the export efficiency (i.e. the fraction of total carbon fixation at the surface that is transported at depth) is affected by climate change remains largely undetermined. These processes affect the ocean chemistry (alkalinity, pH, DIC, particulate and dissolved organic carbon) as well as the ecology (biodiversity, functional groups and their interactions) in the ocean. It is important to have a rigorous, quantitative understanding of the uncertainties involved in the observational measurements, the models and the

  20. The impact of climate change on cultural heritage: evidence and response

    OpenAIRE

    Cassar, M.; Pender, R.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents the first broadbased research on the impact of climate change on historic buildings, buried archaeology, parks and gardens. Research coincided with the publication of the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios and other studies assessing regional climate change and the impact on nature conservation and gardens. The methodology consisted of an assessment of climate change and adaptation literature, a questionnaire, site visits, regional and policy workshops. It conflated evidence...

  1. Systematic Modeling of Impacts of Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Regional Climate: A Review

    OpenAIRE

    Xiangzheng Deng; Chunhong Zhao; Haiming Yan

    2013-01-01

    There have been tremendous changes in the global land use pattern in the past 50 years, which has directly or indirectly exerted significant influence on the global climate change. Quantitative analysis for the impacts of land use and land cover changes (LUCC) on surface climate is one of the core scientific issues to quantitatively analyze the impacts of LUCC on the climate so as to scientifically understand the influence of human activities on the climate change. This paper comprehensively ...

  2. Ozone and climate change impacts on forest ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Giulia Carriero

    2016-01-01

    The increase of tropospheric ozone pollution is affecting forest ecosystems as climate change. This thesis reports the interactions of plant responses to ozone and soil nutrients considering implications for future climate change. The study focuses on mechanisms of action of: ozone pollution on tree functionality and ozone and soil nutrients on BVOC emitted by vegetation

  3. Impacts of Climate Change on Locust Outbreaks in China's History

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Ge

    2009-01-01

    @@ Global warming is causing the climate to change, lakes to dry up and less rain to fall. In population ecology, researchers have found that climate change plays an important role in controlling the size of species populations. To proof this model, long-term observational data are crucial, making researchers to turn to historical records of locust outbreaks.[1

  4. Research Advances of Impacts of Climate Changes on Crop Climatic Adaptability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Agriculture received most direct influences from climate changes. Because of climate changes, agricultural climate resources changed and thus influenced climate adaptability of agricultural products. The growth and output of crops were finally affected. The calculation method and application of agricultural products in recent years were summarized. Several questions about the response of agricultural crops to climate elements were proposed for attention.

  5. Projected impact of climate change on hydropower potential in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Xingcai; Tang, Qiuhong; Voisin, Nathalie; Huijuan, Cui

    2016-08-22

    In China, hydroelectric power is abundant, and half of hydropower potential is currently unexploited. Hydropower has been an important electrical energy during the past decades, and is still growing rapidly in China. However, hydropower is highly dependent on streamflow and is sensitive to climate change. It is of great interest to examine the impact of climate change on hydropower potential against the background within the context of the undergoing fast development of hydropower in China. Future changes in gross hydropower potential (GHP) of China are projected using simulations from eight global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five general circulation models (GCMs) with climate data under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Developed hydropower potential (DHP), based on existing reservoirs and installed hydropower capacity (IHC) in 2004, is also estimated by incorporating a hydropower module. Results show that GHP will generally decrease in southern China and increase in northern China; annual GHP would change by -1.7% to 2% in the near future (2020-2050), and increase by 3-6% of present GHP at the late 21st century (2070-2099). Annual DHP will decrease by about 2.2-5.4% (0.7-1.7% of total IHC) and 1.3%-4% (0.4-1.3% of total IHC) in 2020-2050 and 2070-2099, respectively, which are mostly contributed by the large DHP decrease in South Central China (SCC) and Eastern China (EC), where most reservoirs and large IHC are currently located. The hotspot region of hydropower in Southwest China, where many hydropower stations are under planning or construction, show increases of near 2-6% and 4-11% in annual GHP for the 2020-2050 and 2070-2099, respectively. In another hotspot region, Sichuan and Hubei provinces, DHP will decrease by 2.6-5.7% (0.46-0.97% of total IHC) and 0.8-5% (0.13-0.91% of total IHC) in the 2020-2050 and 2070-2099, respectively. This is mainly due to the significant reduction in discharge; meanwhile, increasing floods

  6. The impacts of climate change across the globe: a multi-sectoral assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Arnell, N. W.; Brown, S.; Gosling, S.N.; Gottschalk, P.; Hinkel, J.; Huntingford, C.; Lloyd-Hughes, B.; Lowe, J. A.; Nicholls, R. J.; Osborn, T. J.; Osborne, T. M.; Rose, G. A.; Smith, P; Wheeler, T.R.; Zelazowski, P

    2016-01-01

    The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts. This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate andsocio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built envir...

  7. The Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty in 2030 and the Potential from Rapid, Inclusive, and Climate-Informed Development

    OpenAIRE

    Rozenberg, Julie; Hallegatte, Stephane

    2015-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on poverty depend on the magnitude of climate change, but also on demographic and socioeconomic trends. An analysis of hundreds of baseline scenarios for future economic development in the absence of climate change in 92 countries shows that the drivers of poverty eradication differ across countries. Two representative scenarios are selected from these hundred...

  8. Parametric assessment of climate change impacts of automotive material substitution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geyer, Roland

    2008-09-15

    Quantifying the net climate change impact of automotive material substitution is not a trivial task. It requires the assessment of the mass reduction potential of automotive materials, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from their production and recycling, and their impact on GHG emissions from vehicle use. The model presented in this paper is based on life cycle assessment (LCA) and completely parameterized, i.e., its computational structure is separated from the required input data, which is not traditionally done in LCAs. The parameterization increases scientific rigor and transparency of the assessment methodology, facilitates sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the results, and also makes it possible to compare different studies and explain their disparities. The state of the art of the modeling methodology is reviewed and advanced. Assessment of the GHG emission impacts of material recycling through consequential system expansion shows that our understanding of this issue is still incomplete. This is a critical knowledge gap since a case study shows thatfor materials such as aluminum, the GHG emission impacts of material production and recycling are both of the same size as the use phase savings from vehicle mass reduction. PMID:18853818

  9. Climate change impact assessment on food security in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ettema, Janneke; Aldrian, Edvin; de Bie, Kees; Jetten, Victor; Mannaerts, Chris

    2013-04-01

    As Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous country, food security is a persistent challenge. The potential impact of future climate change on the agricultural sector needs to be addressed in order to allow early implementation of mitigation strategies. The complex island topography and local sea-land-air interactions cannot adequately be represented in large scale General Climate Models (GCMs) nor visualized by TRMM. Downscaling is needed. Using meteorological observations and a simple statistical downscaling tool, local future projections are derived from state-of-the-art, large-scale GCM scenarios, provided by the CMIP5 project. To support the agriculture sector, providing information on especially rainfall and temperature variability is essential. Agricultural production forecast is influenced by several rain and temperature factors, such as rainy and dry season onset, offset and length, but also by daily and monthly minimum and maximum temperatures and its rainfall amount. A simple and advanced crop model will be used to address the sensitivity of different crops to temperature and rainfall variability, present-day and future. As case study area, Java Island is chosen as it is fourth largest island in Indonesia but contains more than half of the nation's population and dominates it politically and economically. The objective is to identify regions at agricultural risk due to changing patterns in precipitation and temperature.

  10. Climate change impacts on lake thermal dynamics and ecosystem vulnerabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahoo, G. B; Forrest, A. L; Schladow, S. G ;; Reuter, J. E; Coats, R.; Dettinger, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Using water column temperature records collected since 1968, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on thermal properties, stability intensity, length of stratification, and deep mixing dynamics of Lake Tahoe using a modified stability index (SI). This new SI is easier to produce and is a more informative measure of deep lake stability than commonly used stability indices. The annual average SI increased at 16.62 kg/m2/decade although the summer (May–October) average SI increased at a higher rate (25.42 kg/m2/decade) during the period 1968–2014. This resulted in the lengthening of the stratification season by approximately 24 d. We simulated the lake thermal structure over a future 100 yr period using a lake hydrodynamic model driven by statistically downscaled outputs of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model (GFDL) for two different green house gas emission scenarios (the A2 in which greenhouse-gas emissions increase rapidly throughout the 21st Century, and the B1 in which emissions slow and then level off by the late 21st Century). The results suggest a continuation and intensification of the already observed trends. The length of stratification duration and the annual average lake stability are projected to increase by 38 d and 12 d and 30.25 kg/m2/decade and 8.66 kg/m2/decade, respectively for GFDLA2 and GFDLB1, respectively during 2014–2098. The consequences of this change bear the hallmarks of climate change induced lake warming and possible exacerbation of existing water quality, quantity and ecosystem changes. The developed methodology could be extended and applied to other lakes as a tool to predict changes in stratification and mixing dynamics.

  11. Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, Melissa A.; Chen, Robert S.; Maldonado, Julie; Quattrochi, Dale

    2011-01-01

    The Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment workshop, sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for the National Climate Assessment (NCA), was held on April 28-29, 2011 at The Madison Hotel in Washington, DC. A group of 56 experts (see list in Appendix B) convened to share their experiences. Participants brought to bear a wide range of disciplinary expertise in the social and natural sciences, sector experience, and knowledge about developing and implementing indicators for a range of purposes. Participants included representatives from federal and state government, non-governmental organizations, tribes, universities, and communities. The purpose of the workshop was to assist the NCA in developing a strategic framework for climate-related physical, ecological, and socioeconomic indicators that can be easily communicated with the U.S. population and that will support monitoring, assessment, prediction, evaluation, and decision-making. The NCA indicators are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The workshop participants were asked to provide input on a number of topics, including: (1) categories of societal indicators for the NCA; (2) alternative approaches to constructing indicators and the better approaches for NCA to consider; (3) specific requirements and criteria for implementing the indicators; and (4) sources of data for and creators of such indicators. Socioeconomic indicators could include demographic, cultural, behavioral, economic, public health, and policy components relevant to impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation to climate change as well as both proactive and reactive responses to climate change. Participants provided

  12. CLIMATE CHANGE IN THAILAND AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON RICE YIELD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Because of the uncertainties surrounding prediction of climate change, it is common to employ climate scenarios to estimate its impacts on a system. Climate scenarios are sets of climatic perturbations used with models to test system sensitivity to projected changes. In this stud...

  13. Cultural dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Barnett, Jon; Brown, Katrina; Marshall, Nadine; O'Brien, Karen

    2013-02-01

    Society's response to every dimension of global climate change is mediated by culture. We analyse new research across the social sciences to show that climate change threatens cultural dimensions of lives and livelihoods that include the material and lived aspects of culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place. We find, furthermore, that there are important cultural dimensions to how societies respond and adapt to climate-related risks. We demonstrate how culture mediates changes in the environment and changes in societies, and we elucidate shortcomings in contemporary adaptation policy.

  14. Impact of climate change on the forests, the agroforestry systems and the wildlife

    OpenAIRE

    Quinta-Nova, L.C.

    2011-01-01

    The main impacts of climate change on wildlife are: shifts and fluctuations of habitats and habitat conditions; synergetic effects between climate change and habitat fragmentation; increase number of species threatened with extinction; and changes in the distribution of most types of vegetation. In this presentation it was addressed the synergetic effects of between climate change and habitat fragmentation.

  15. Future Projection of Ocean Wave Climate: Analysis of SST Impacts on Wave Climate Changes in the Western North Pacific

    OpenAIRE

    Shimura, Tomoya; Mori, Nobuhito; Mase, Hajime

    2015-01-01

    Changes in ocean surface waves elicit a variety of impacts on coastal environments. To assess the future changes in the ocean surface wave climate, several future projections of global wave climate have been simulated in previous studies. However, previously there has been little discussion about the causes behind changes in the future wave climate and the differences between projections. The objective of this study is to estimate the future changes in mean wave climate and the sensitivity of...

  16. Climate change impacts on chosen activities from the energy sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present work, results of a study carried out about the possible impact of climate change on the energy sector in the province Camaguey are shown. First of all, the main activities in companies, utilities, and farms related to the most significant energy consumption were chosen in order to model corresponding equivalent fuel consumption. Impacts were determined taking into account differences between present and future consumptions for each kind of energy. In developed countries, this kind of work is done using well-known empirical-statistical models, which usually require a lot of data at a nation-wide scale, but to attempt it in an undeveloped country demands the use of specific methodology, which in this case was non-existent and required us to create it. This resulted in a carefully posed question since we had to take into consideration that the spatial scale is only that of a province, and so it was necessary, above all, to study specific characteristics of provincial fuel consumption. We used the Magic-Scengen system and SRES scenarios, and outputs of general circulation models like HadCM2 to obtain values of chosen climatic variables for use in energy consumption regression models, previously developed for each kind of activity in the corresponding companies, firm, and facilities included in the present research. It made possible to estimate energy consumption in each activity at the selected time periods centered at 2020, 2050, and 2080. The study shows that impact could rise the consumption by 2,5% of the present energy level in this territory

  17. Risk of severe climate change impact on the terrestrial biosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The functioning of many ecosystems and their associated resilience could become severely compromised by climate change over the 21st century. We present a global risk analysis of terrestrial ecosystem changes based on an aggregate metric of joint changes in macroscopic ecosystem features including vegetation structure as well as carbon and water fluxes and stores. We apply this metric to global ecosystem simulations with a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJmL) under 58 WCRP CMIP3 climate change projections. Given the current knowledge of ecosystem processes and projected climate change patterns, we find that severe ecosystem changes cannot be excluded on any continent. They are likely to occur (in > 90% of the climate projections) in the boreal-temperate ecotone where heat and drought stress might lead to large-scale forest die-back, along boreal and mountainous tree lines where the temperature limitation will be alleviated, and in water-limited ecosystems where elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration will lead to increased water use efficiency of photosynthesis. Considerable ecosystem changes can be expected above 3 K local temperature change in cold and tropical climates and above 4 K in the temperate zone. Sensitivity to temperature change increases with decreasing precipitation in tropical and temperate ecosystems. In summary, there is a risk of substantial restructuring of the global land biosphere on current trajectories of climate change.

  18. Teasing out the impacts of climate change on agricultural development

    OpenAIRE

    Knox, Jerry W.; Kay, Melvyn G.

    2010-01-01

    plethora of articles, books, and academic papers. Not least are the detailed and extensive publications of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which set out in their latest assessment (AR4), the scientific, technical, and socio-economic information relevant for understanding the risks posed by human- induced climate change, and the policy options for dealing with it. Although it is useful to study and identify the specific benefits and risks of a changing c...

  19. Impacts of Climate Change on Forest Ecosystems in Northeast China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Xiao-Ying; ZHAO Chun-Yu; JIA Qing-Yu

    2013-01-01

    This paper reviews the studies and research on climate change impacts on the forest ecosystems in Northeast China. The results show that in the context of global and regional warming, the growing season of coniferous forests has been increasing at an average rate of 3.9 d per decade. Regional warming favors the growth of temperate broad-leaved forests and has a detrimental effect on the growth of boreal coniferous forests. Over the past hundred years, the forest edge of the cool temperate zone in the southern Daxing’anling region has retreated 140 km northward. From 1896 to 1986, the northern boundary of broad-leaved forests in Heilongjiang province has extended northwestward about 290 km. Future climatic changes (until 2060) may lead to the northern deciduous needle forests moving out of China’s territory altogether. The occurrence cycles of pests and diseases have shortened; their distribution ranges have expanded. The life cycle of tent caterpillars (Malacosoma neustria testacea Motschulsky) has shortened from 14-15 years in the past to 8-10 years now. The pine caterpillar (Dendrolimus tabulaeformis Tsai et Liu), which has spread within western Liaoning province and the nearby areas, can now be found in the north and west. Lightning fires in the Daxing’anling region have significantly increased since 1987, and August has become the month when lightning fires occur most frequently. Overall, the net primary productivity (NPP) of forest in Northeast China has increased. The NPP in 1981 was around 0.27 Pg C, and increased to approximately 0.40 Pg C in 2002. With the current climate, the broad-leaved Korean pine forest ecosystem acts as a carbon sink, with a carbon sink capacity of 2.7 Mg C hm-2. Although the carbon sink capacity of the forest ecosystems in Northeast China has been weakened since 2003, the total carbon absorption will still increase. The forest ecosystems in Northeast China are likely to remain a significant carbon sink, and will play a

  20. Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Se-Yeun; Ryan, Maureen E.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Palen, Wendy J.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Halabisky, Meghan

    2015-01-01

    Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. ...

  1. Future changes in Mekong River hydrology: impact of climate change and reservoir operation on discharge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lauri

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The transboundary Mekong River is facing two ongoing changes that are expected to significantly impact its hydrology and the characteristics of its exceptional flood pulse. The rapid economic development of the riparian countries has led to massive plans for hydropower construction, and projected climate change is expected to alter the monsoon patterns and increase temperature in the basin. The aim of this study is to assess the cumulative impact of these factors on the hydrology of the Mekong within next 20–30 yr. We downscaled the output of five general circulation models (GCMs that were found to perform well in the Mekong region. For the simulation of reservoir operation, we used an optimisation approach to estimate the operation of multiple reservoirs, including both existing and planned hydropower reservoirs. For the hydrological assessment, we used a distributed hydrological model, VMod, with a grid resolution of 5 km × 5 km. In terms of climate change's impact on hydrology, we found a high variation in the discharge results depending on which of the GCMs is used as input. The simulated change in discharge at Kratie (Cambodia between the baseline (1982–1992 and projected time period (2032–2042 ranges from −11% to +15% for the wet season and −10% to +13% for the dry season. Our analysis also shows that the changes in discharge due to planned reservoir operations are clearly larger than those simulated due to climate change: 25–160% higher dry season flows and 5–24% lower flood peaks in Kratie. The projected cumulative impacts follow rather closely the reservoir operation impacts, with an envelope around them induced by the different GCMs. Our results thus indicate that within the coming 20–30 yr, the operation of planned hydropower reservoirs is likely to have a larger impact on the Mekong hydrograph than the impacts of climate change, particularly during the dry season. On the other hand, climate change will

  2. Integrating Water into an Economic Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Egypt

    OpenAIRE

    Yates, D

    1996-01-01

    Recent research indicates that larger countries, with multiple agro-climatic zones, have the capacity to adjust to marginal climate changes which could occur over the next century. However, in countries with fewer adaptation options and with increasing dependency on imports to meet growing domestic demands, climate change might have significant impacts. To date, little has been done on assessing integrated impacts of climate change in developing countries. This motivates the need for imp...

  3. Climate , communication and participation impacting commitment to change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rogiest, S.E.A.M.; Segers, J.; van Witteloostuijn, Arjen

    2015-01-01

    Purpose Through the combination of change process, context and content this paper aims to provide a deeper understanding of failure or success of organizational change. This study considers the effect of organizational climate on affective commitment to change simultaneously with quality change comm

  4. Climate change impact on landscape fire and forest biomass dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of this study was to improve current understandings of fire regimes. The estimation of biomass dynamics at the stand scale is essential for understanding landscape scale biomass dynamics, particularly in order to understand the potential effects of fire regimes. This study presented a synthesis of research results obtained from stand scale studies together with fire behaviour and weather variables. Landscape structure, topography and climate conditions were also considered. Integration of the data was conducted with the SEM-LAND model, a spatially explicit model for landscape dynamics. Equations for the model were presented, including fire initiation and spread, as well as a lightning fire process and simulated fire suppression. Results indicated that fire suppression could alter the distribution of fire sizes. The effect of tree and stand mortality on forest biomass estimates was also discussed along with the impact of climate change on fire regimes. Results indicate that fire activities are likely to increase. Results also demonstrate that fire frequency and size distribution are correlated without human intervention. Theoretical negative exponential forest age distribution is not always supported by empirical observations. Point-based fire frequency and fire cycle definitions are special cases from a computational perspective. Detection of quantitative interrelationships may simplify preconditions for estimating fire regimes, and serve as a means to address incomplete empirical observations. 12 refs., 3 figs

  5. Climate and change: simulating flooding impacts on urban transport network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pregnolato, Maria; Ford, Alistair; Dawson, Richard

    2015-04-01

    National-scale climate projections indicate that in the future there will be hotter and drier summers, warmer and wetter winters, together with rising sea levels. The frequency of extreme weather events is expected to increase, causing severe damage to the built environment and disruption of infrastructures (Dawson, 2007), whilst population growth and changed demographics are placing new demands on urban infrastructure. It is therefore essential to ensure infrastructure networks are robust to these changes. This research addresses these challenges by focussing on the development of probabilistic tools for managing risk by modelling urban transport networks within the context of extreme weather events. This paper presents a methodology to investigate the impacts of extreme weather events on urban environment, in particular infrastructure networks, through a combination of climate simulations and spatial representations. By overlaying spatial data on hazard thresholds from a flood model and a flood safety function, mitigated by potential adaptation strategies, different levels of disruption to commuting journeys on road networks are evaluated. The method follows the Catastrophe Modelling approach and it consists of a spatial model, combining deterministic loss models and probabilistic risk assessment techniques. It can be applied to present conditions as well as future uncertain scenarios, allowing the examination of the impacts alongside socio-economic and climate changes. The hazard is determined by simulating free surface water flooding, with the software CityCAT (Glenis et al., 2013). The outputs are overlapped to the spatial locations of a simple network model in GIS, which uses journey-to-work (JTW) observations, supplemented with speed and capacity information. To calculate the disruptive effect of flooding on transport networks, a function relating water depth to safe driving car speed has been developed by combining data from experimental reports (Morris et

  6. Research on Climate Change and Its Impacts Needs Freedom of Research

    OpenAIRE

    Nicole Mölders

    2013-01-01

    Climate change captured my interest as a teenager when, at the dining table, my dad talked about potential anthropogenic climate changes. He brought up subjects such as “climate could change if the Siberian Rivers were to be deviated to the South for irrigation of the (semi) arid areas of the former Soviet Union”. Other subjects were afforestation in the Sahel to enhance precipitation recycling, deforestation in the Tropics that could have worldwide impacts on climate, the local climate impac...

  7. Climate change impacts on mycotoxin risks in US maize

    Science.gov (United States)

    To ensure future food security, it is crucial to understand how potential climate change scenarios will affect agriculture. One key area of interest is how climatic factors, both in the near- and the long-term future, could affect fungal infection of crops and mycotoxin production by these fungi. ...

  8. Impact of Climate Change on Irrigation, Crops and Hydropower in Vietnam

    OpenAIRE

    Gebretsadik, Yohannes; Fant, Charles; Strzepek, Kenneth

    2012-01-01

    Vietnam is among the countries that are assumed to be highly affected by the impacts of climate change through sea level rise; increased temperature and changes in precipitation resulting in changes in crop water requirements and yields; and changes in river flow with impacts on hydropower and the ability to meeting water requirements for municipal, industrial and agricultural uses. Fifty-six climate change scenarios for Vietnam were selected that span a range of wet to dry future climates fo...

  9. Impact of climatic change on alpine ecosystems: inference and prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigel G. Yoccoz

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Alpine ecosystems will be greatly impacted by climatic change, but other factors, such as land use and invasive species, are likely to play an important role too. Climate can influence ecosystems at several levels. We describe some of them, stressing methodological approaches and available data. Climate can modify species phenology, such as flowering date of plants and hatching date in insects. It can also change directly population demography (survival, reproduction, dispersal, and therefore species distribution. Finally it can effect interactions among species – snow cover for example can affect the success of some predators. One characteristic of alpine ecosystems is the presence of snow cover, but surprisingly the role played by snow is relatively poorly known, mainly for logistical reasons. Even if we have made important progress regarding the development of predictive models, particularly so for distribution of alpine plants, we still need to set up observational and experimental networks which properly take into account the variability of alpine ecosystems and of their interactions with climate.Les écosystèmes alpins vont être grandement influencés par les changements climatiques à venir, mais d’autres facteurs, tels que l’utilisation des terres ou les espèces invasives, pourront aussi jouer un rôle important. Le climat peut influencer les écosystèmes à différents niveaux, et nous en décrivons certains, en mettant l’accent sur les méthodes utilisées et les données disponibles. Le climat peut d’abord modifier la phénologie des espèces, comme la date de floraison des plantes ou la date d’éclosion des insectes. Il peut ensuite affecter directement la démographie des espèces (survie, reproduction, dispersion et donc à terme leur répartition. Il peut enfin agir sur les interactions entre espèces – le couvert neigeux par exemple modifie le succès de certains prédateurs. Une caractéristique des

  10. Evaluating the impacts of climate change on diurnal wind power cycles using multiple regional climate models

    KAUST Repository

    Goddard, Scott D.

    2015-05-01

    Electrical utility system operators must plan resources so that electricity supply matches demand throughout the day. As the proportion of wind-generated electricity in the US grows, changes in daily wind patterns have the potential either to disrupt the utility or increase the value of wind to the system over time. Wind power projects are designed to last many years, so at this timescale, climate change may become an influential factor on wind patterns. We examine the potential effects of climate change on the average diurnal power production cycles at 12 locations in North America by analyzing averaged and individual output from nine high-resolution regional climate models comprising historical (1971–1999) and future (2041–2069) periods. A semi-parametric mixed model is fit using cubic B-splines, and model diagnostics are checked. Then, a likelihood ratio test is applied to test for differences between the time periods in the seasonal daily averaged cycles, and agreement among the individual regional climate models is assessed. We investigate the significant changes by combining boxplots with a differencing approach and identify broad categories of changes in the amplitude, shape, and position of the average daily cycles. We then discuss the potential impact of these changes on wind power production.

  11. Impact of climate change on Taiwanese power market determined using linear complementarity model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► Impact of climate change on average temperature is estimated. ► Temperature elasticity of demand is measured. ► Impact of climate change on Taiwanese power market determined. -- Abstract: The increase in the greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere causes significant changes in climate patterns. In turn, this climate change affects the environment, ecology, and human behavior. The emission of greenhouse gases from the power industry has been analyzed in many studies. However, the impact of climate change on the electricity market has received less attention. Hence, the purpose of this research is to determine the impact of climate change on the electricity market, and a case study involving the Taiwanese power market is conducted. First, the impact of climate change on temperature is estimated. Next, because electricity demand can be expressed as a function of temperature, the temperature elasticity of demand is measured. Then, a linear complementarity model is formulated to simulate the Taiwanese power market and climate change scenarios are discussed. Therefore, this paper establishes a simulation framework for calculating the impact of climate change on electricity demand change. In addition, the impact of climate change on the Taiwanese market is examined and presented.

  12. Climate change impacts on hydrological extremes in Central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fokko Hattermann, Fred; Huang, Shaochun; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Hoffmann, Peter

    2016-04-01

    An increase of hydro-climatic extremes can be observed worldwide and is challenging national and regional risk management and adaptation plans. Our study presents and discusses possible trends in climate drivers and hydro-climatic extremes in Europe observed and under future climate conditions. In a case study for Germany, impacts of different regional climate scenario ensembles are compared. To this end, a hydrological model was applied to transform the scenarios data into river runoff for more than 5000 river reaches in Germany. Extreme Value Distributions have been fitted to the hydrographs of the river reaches to derive the basic flood statistics. The results for each river reach have been linked to related damage functions as provided by the German Insurance Association considering damages on buildings and small enterprises. The robust result is that under scenario conditions a significant increase in flood related losses can be expected in Germany, while also the number of low flow events may rise.

  13. Climate Change and Sugarcane Production: Potential Impact and Mitigation Strategies

    OpenAIRE

    Duli Zhao; Yang-Rui Li

    2015-01-01

    Sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.) is an important crop for sugar and bioenergy worldwide. The increasing greenhouse gas emission and global warming during climate change result in the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Climate change is expected to have important consequences for sugarcane production in the world, especially in the developing countries because of relatively low adaptive capacity, high vulnerability to natural hazards, and poor forecasting systems ...

  14. Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Nelson, Gerald C.; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Koo, Jawoo; Robertson, Richard; Sulser, Timothy; Zhu, Tingju; Ringler, Claudia; Msangi, Siwa; Palazzo, Amanda; Batka, Miroslav; Magalhaes, Marilia; Valmonte-Santos, Rowena; Ewing, Mandy; Lee, David

    2009-01-01

    "The Challenge The unimpeded growth of greenhouse gas emissions is raising the earth’s temperature. The consequences include melting glaciers, more precipitation, more and more extreme weather events, and shifting seasons. The accelerating pace of climate change, combined with global population and income growth, threatens food security everywhere. Agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Higher temperatures eventually reduce yields of desirable crops while encouraging weed and ...

  15. Arctic marine mammals and climate change: impacts and resilience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sue E; Huntington, Henry P

    2008-03-01

    Evolutionary selection has refined the life histories of seven species (three cetacean [narwhal, beluga, and bowhead whales], three pinniped [walrus, ringed, and bearded seals], and the polar bear) to spatial and temporal domains influenced by the seasonal extremes and variability of sea ice, temperature, and day length that define the Arctic. Recent changes in Arctic climate may challenge the adaptive capability of these species. Nine other species (five cetacean [fin, humpback, minke, gray, and killer whales] and four pinniped [harp, hooded, ribbon, and spotted seals]) seasonally occupy Arctic and subarctic habitats and may be poised to encroach into more northern latitudes and to remain there longer, thereby competing with extant Arctic species. A synthesis of the impacts of climate change on all these species hinges on sea ice, in its role as: (1) platform, (2) marine ecosystem foundation, and (3) barrier to non-ice-adapted marine mammals and human commercial activities. Therefore, impacts are categorized for: (1) ice-obligate species that rely on sea ice platforms, (2) ice-associated species that are adapted to sea ice-dominated ecosystems, and (3) seasonally migrant species for which sea ice can act as a barrier. An assessment of resilience is far more speculative, as any number of scenarios can be envisioned, most of them involving potential trophic cascades and anticipated human perturbations. Here we provide resilience scenarios for the three ice-related species categories relative to four regions defined by projections of sea ice reductions by 2050 and extant shelf oceanography. These resilience scenarios suggest that: (1) some populations of ice-obligate marine mammals will survive in two regions with sea ice refugia, while other stocks may adapt to ice-free coastal habitats, (2) ice-associated species may find suitable feeding opportunities within the two regions with sea ice refugia and, if capable of shifting among available prey, may benefit from

  16. The impact of climate change on Canadian peatlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper discussed the sensitivity of Canadian peatlands to climate change, with particular emphasis on the carbon dynamics, water regime changes and the contribution of peatlands to atmospheric greenhouse gases. Peatlands cover 12 per cent of the Canadian landscape, with most occurring in the boreal and subarctic regions. In total, the peatlands contain nearly 147 Gt of soil organic carbon, or about 56 per cent of the organic carbon stored in all Canadian soils. A peatland sensitivity model that was used to determine the effect of climate warming on peatlands revealed that about 60 per cent of the boreal and subarctic regions and 56 per cent of the organic carbon mass in all Canadian peatlands will be severely to extremely severely affected by climate change, and at an accelerated rate than ever before. Climate change predictions suggest that the greatest effects of climate warming on Canadian peatlands will occur in areas with perennially frozen peat. The major concern in these areas is that the melting of the frozen peat will result in waterlogged conditions. In contrast, drying of non-permafrost peatlands will result in a higher frequency and extent of wildfires. As a result of these changes, large amounts of carbon in the forms of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) will be released into the atmosphere from these peatlands, which will further accelerate climate warming. 43 refs., 2 tabs., 7 figs.

  17. A multi-model study of impacts of climate change on surface ozone in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Langner, J.; M. Engardt; A. Baklanov; J. H. Christensen; Gauss, M.; C. Geels; G. B. Hedegaard; Nuterman, R.; Simpson, D.; Soares, J; Sofiev, M.; Wind, P.; Zakey, A.

    2012-01-01

    The impact of climate change on surface ozone over Europe was studied using four offline regional chemistry transport models (CTMs) and one online regional integrated climate-chemistry model (CCM), driven by the same global projection of future climate under the SRES A1B scenario. Anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors from RCP4.5 for year 2000 were used for simulations of both present and future periods in order to isolate the impact of climate change and to assess the...

  18. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change : From global mean temperature change to climate extremes and high impact weather.

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    2013-01-01

    This talk will describe how evidence has grown in recent years for a human influence on climate and explain how the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is extremely likely (>95% probability) that human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of the observed global-mean warming since the mid-20th century. The fingerprint of human activities has also been detected in warming of the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in changes in some climate extremes. The strengthening of evidence for the effects of human influence on climate extremes is in line with long-held basic understanding of the consequences of mean warming for temperature extremes and for atmospheric moisture. Despite such compelling evidence this does not mean that every instance of high impact weather can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, because climate variability is often a major factor in many locations, especially for rain...

  19. Cross-sectoral conflicts for water under climate change: the need to include water quality impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Vliet, van, L.P.W.; Ludwig, F; Kabat, P.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to increase pressures on water use between different sectors (e.g. agriculture, energy, industry, domestic uses) and ecosystems. While climate change impacts on water availability have been studied widely, less work has been done to assess impacts on water quality. This study proposes a modelling framework to incorporate water quality in analyses of cross-sectoral conflicts for water between human uses and ecosystems under climate change and socio-economic changes. ...

  20. UK's climate change levy: cost effectiveness, competitiveness and environmental impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper intends to examine the cost effectiveness of UK's climate change levy (CCL), its implications on competitiveness of firms and the environmental impact. The paper briefly describes the levy and analyses it under the cannons of a good taxation policy. The economic implications of the levy are discussed with theoretical and empirical perspectives. Change in net exports, investment patterns and productivity and inclusion of compliance cost forms the basis for analysing the effect on competitiveness. It discusses the options available to firms to safeguard their competitiveness if it is adversely affected by the CCL. A description of the current scenario of the levy since its inception is also presented. The paper argues the need for a comprehensive policy involving the use of standards, emission trading as well as energy taxes to achieve emission and energy-use reductions. A focal point of this paper is to elucidate the pros and cons of the CCL (energy tax) with respect to an emission trading scheme

  1. The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture : a ricardian approach

    OpenAIRE

    Kabubo-Mariara, Jane; Karanja, Fredrick K

    2007-01-01

    This paper measures the economic impact of climate on crops in Kenya. The analysis is based on cross-sectional climate, hydrological, soil, and household level data for a sample of 816 households, and uses a seasonal Ricardian model. Estimated marginal impacts of climate variables suggest that global warming is harmful for agricultural productivity and that changes in temperature are much ...

  2. Climate change impacts on high-elevation hydroelectricity in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madani, Kaveh; Guégan, Marion; Uvo, Cintia B.

    2014-03-01

    While only about 30% of California's usable water storage capacity lies at higher elevations, high-elevation (above 300 m) hydropower units generate, on average, 74% of California's in-state hydroelectricity. In general, high-elevation plants have small man-made reservoirs and rely mainly on snowpack. Their low built-in storage capacity is a concern with regard to climate warming. Snowmelt is expected to shift to earlier in the year, and the system may not be able to store sufficient water for release in high-demand periods. Previous studies have explored the climate warming effects on California's high-elevation hydropower by focusing on the supply side (exploring the effects of hydrological changes on generation and revenues) ignoring the warming effects on hydroelectricity demand and pricing. This study extends the previous work by simultaneous consideration of climate change effects on high-elevation hydropower supply and pricing in California. The California's Energy-Based Hydropower Optimization Model (EBHOM 2.0) is applied to evaluate the adaptability of California's high-elevation hydropower system to climate warming, considering the warming effects on hydroelectricity supply and pricing. The model's results relative to energy generation, energy spills, reservoir energy storage, and average shadow prices of energy generation and storage capacity expansion are examined and discussed. These results are compared with previous studies to emphasize the need to consider climate change effects on hydroelectricity demand and pricing when exploring the effects of climate change on hydropower operations.

  3. Developing a National Climate Indicators System to Track Climate Changes, Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, M. A.; Janetos, A. C.; Arndt, D.; Chen, R. S.; Pouyat, R.; Anderson, S. M.

    2013-12-01

    The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. Part of the vision, which is now under development, for the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process is a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information that is useful to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region. These indicators will be tracked as a part of ongoing assessment activities, with adjustments as necessary to adapt to changing conditions and understanding. The indicators will be reviewed and updated so that the system adapts to new information. The NCA indicator system is not intended to serve as a vehicle for documenting rigorous cause and effect relationships. It is reasonable, however, for it to serve as a guide to those factors that affect the evolution of variability and change in the climate system, the resources and sectors of concern that are affected by it, and how society chooses to respond. Different components of the end-to-end climate issue serve as categories within which to organize an end-to-end system of indicators: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, Atmospheric Composition, Physical Climate Variability and Change, Sectors and Resources of Concern, and Adaptation and Mitigation Responses. This framing has several advantages. It can be used to identify the different components of the end-to-end climate issue that both decision-makers and researchers are interested in. It is independent of scale, and therefore allows the indicators themselves to be described at spatial

  4. Developing a System of National Climate Assessment Indicators to Track Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janetos, A. C.; Kenney, M. A.; Chen, R. S.; Arndt, D.

    2012-12-01

    The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/). Part of the vision for the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process is a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information that is useful to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region. These indicators will be tracked as a part of ongoing assessment activities, with adjustments as necessary to adapt to changing conditions and understanding. The indicators will be reviewed and updated so that the system adapts to new information. The NCA indicator system is not intended to serve as a vehicle for documenting rigorous cause and effect relationships. It is reasonable, however, for it to serve as a guide to those factors that affect the evolution of variability and change in the climate system, the resources and sectors of concern that are affected by it, and how society chooses to respond. Different components of the end-to-end climate issue serve as categories within which to organize an end-to-end system of indicators: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks Atmospheric Composition Physical Climate Variability and Change Sectors and Resources of Concern Adaptation and Mitigation Responses This framing has several advantages. It can be used to identify the different components of the end-to-end climate issue that both decision-makers and researchers are interested in. It is independent of scale, and therefore allows the indicators themselves to be described at

  5. DESYCO: a Decision Support System to provide climate services for coastal stakeholders dealing with climate change impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torresan, S.; Gallina, V.; Giannini, V.; Rizzi, J.; Zabeo, A.; Critto, A.; Marcomini, A.

    2012-04-01

    At the international level climate services are recognized as innovative tools aimed at providing and distributing climate data and information according to the needs of end-users. Furthermore, needs-based climate services are extremely effective to manage climate risks and take advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change impacts. To date, climate services are mainly related to climate models that supply climate data (e.g. temperature, precipitations) at different spatial and time scales. However, there is a significant gap of tools aimed at providing information about risks and impacts induced by climate change and allowing non-expert stakeholders to use both climate-model and climate-impact data. DESYCO is a GIS-Decision Support System aimed at the integrated assessment of multiple climate change impacts on vulnerable coastal systems (e.g. beaches, river deltas, estuaries and lagoons, wetlands, agricultural and urban areas). It is an open source software that manages different input data (e.g. raster or shapefiles) coming from climate models (e.g. global and regional climate projections) and high resolution impact models (e.g. hydrodynamic, hydrological and biogeochemical simulations) in order to provide hazard, exposure, susceptibility, risk and damage maps for the identification and prioritization of hot-spot areas and to provide a basis for the definition of coastal adaptation and management strategies. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7) DESYCO is proposed as an helpful tool to bridge the gap between climate data and stakeholder needs and will be applied to the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy) in order to provide climate services for local authorities involved in coastal zone management. Accordingly, a first workshop was held in Venice (Italy) with coastal authorities, climate experts and climate change risk experts, in order to start an iterative exchange of information about the knowledge related to climate change, climate

  6. Potential impact of climate change on marine dimethyl sulfide emissions

    OpenAIRE

    Bopp, Laurent; Aumont, Oliver; Belviso, Sauveur; MONFRAY, PATRICK

    2011-01-01

    Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is a biogenic compound produced in sea-surface water and outgased to the atmosphere. Once in the atmosphere, DMS is a significant source of cloud condensation nuclei in the unpolluted marine atmosphere. It has been postulated that climate may be partly modulated by variations in DMS production through a DMS-cloud condensation nuclei-albedo feedback. We present here a modelled estimation of the response of DMS sea-water concentrations and DMS fluxes to climate change, fo...

  7. Modelling climate change impacts on stream habitat conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boegh, Eva; Conallin, John; Karthikeyan, Matheswaran;

    , climate impacts on stream ecological conditions were quantified by combining a heat and mass stream flow with a habitat suitability modelling approach. Habitat suitability indices were developed for stream velocity, water depth, water temperature and substrate. Generally, water depth was found...

  8. Impacts of climate change and variability on European agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Orlandini, Simone; Nejedlik, Pavol; Eitzinger, Josef;

    2008-01-01

    risk assessment and foreseen impacts on agriculture. The work will be carried out by respective Working Groups. This paper presents the results of the analysis of the first phase of inventory activity. Specific questionnaires were disseminated among COST 734 countries to collect information on climate...

  9. Review: Sugarcane production: Impact of climate change and its mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ASHOK K. SRIVASTAVA

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Sugarcane is a climatic sensitive crop: therefore, its spatial distribution on the globe is restricted as per the suitability of various climatic parameters. The climate change, though, a very slow phenomenon is now accelerated due to natural, as well as enormous human activities disturbing the composition of atmosphere. The predications of various climatic models for probable rise in temperature, rainfall, sea level show an alarming condition in forthcoming decades. As the sugarcane is very sensitive to temperature, rainfall, solar radiations etc. therefore, a significant effect on its production and sugar yield is expected in future. It is also well known that sugarcane is one of the precious crops of the world and its end products i.e. sugar and ethanol have a continuous growing demand on global level. Hence, the studies related to good production of sugarcane in changing conditions of climate has become one among the front line area of research and is a major concern of scientist’s world over. Advance agronomic measures including development of suitable cane varieties susceptible to changed climatic conditions, land preparation, time and pattern of plantation, weed, disease and pest managements, nutrients managements, proper timing and adequate water management seems to be the affective measures for obtaining high production of crop with good quality juice in future.

  10. Climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    This paper presented indicators of climate change for British Columbia (BC) with an emphasis on the coastal region. An overview of global effects of climate change was presented, as well as details of BC's current climate change action plan. Indicators examined in the paper for the BC coastal region included long-term trends in air temperature; long-term trends in precipitation; coastal ocean temperatures; sea levels on the BC coast; and the sensitivity of the BC coast to sea level rise and erosion. Data suggested that average air temperatures have become higher in many areas, and that Springtime temperatures have become warmer over the whole province. Winters have become drier in many areas of the province. Sea surface temperature has risen over the entire coast, with the North Coast and central Strait of Georgia showing the largest increases. Deep-water temperatures have also increased in 5 inlets on the South Coast. Results suggested that the direction and spatial pattern of the climate changes reported for British Columbia are consistent with broader trends in North America and the type of changes predicted by climate models for the region. Climate change will likely result in reduced snow-pack in southern BC. An earlier spring freshet on many snow-dominated river systems is anticipated as well as glacial retreat and disappearance. Warmer temperatures in some lakes and rivers are expected, as well as the increased frequency and severity of natural disturbances such as the pine mountain beetle. Large-scale shifts in ecosystems and the loss of certain ecosystems may also occur. BC's current climate plan includes cost effective actions that address GHG emissions and support efficient infrastructure and opportunities for innovation. Management programs for forest and agricultural lands have been initiated, as well as programs to reduce emissions from government operations. Research is also being conducted to understand the impacts of climate change on

  11. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presented indicators of climate change for British Columbia (BC) with an emphasis on the coastal region. An overview of global effects of climate change was presented, as well as details of BC's current climate change action plan. Indicators examined in the paper for the BC coastal region included long-term trends in air temperature; long-term trends in precipitation; coastal ocean temperatures; sea levels on the BC coast; and the sensitivity of the BC coast to sea level rise and erosion. Data suggested that average air temperatures have become higher in many areas, and that Springtime temperatures have become warmer over the whole province. Winters have become drier in many areas of the province. Sea surface temperature has risen over the entire coast, with the North Coast and central Strait of Georgia showing the largest increases. Deep-water temperatures have also increased in 5 inlets on the South Coast. Results suggested that the direction and spatial pattern of the climate changes reported for British Columbia are consistent with broader trends in North America and the type of changes predicted by climate models for the region. Climate change will likely result in reduced snow-pack in southern BC. An earlier spring freshet on many snow-dominated river systems is anticipated as well as glacial retreat and disappearance. Warmer temperatures in some lakes and rivers are expected, as well as the increased frequency and severity of natural disturbances such as the pine mountain beetle. Large-scale shifts in ecosystems and the loss of certain ecosystems may also occur. BC's current climate plan includes cost effective actions that address GHG emissions and support efficient infrastructure and opportunities for innovation. Management programs for forest and agricultural lands have been initiated, as well as programs to reduce emissions from government operations. Research is also being conducted to understand the impacts of climate change on water

  12. A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Heinke

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

  13. Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amy K. Snover; Nathan J. Mantua; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander; Michelle M. McClure; Janet Nye

    2013-01-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

  14. [Environmental pollution, climate variability and climate change: a review of health impacts on the Peruvian population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzales, Gustavo F; Zevallos, Alisson; Gonzales-Castañeda, Cynthia; Nuñez, Denisse; Gastañaga, Carmen; Cabezas, César; Naeher, Luke; Levy, Karen; Steenland, Kyle

    2014-01-01

    This article is a review of the pollution of water, air and the effect of climate change on the health of the Peruvian population. A major air pollutant is particulate matter less than 2.5 μ (PM 2.5). In Lima, 2,300 premature deaths annually are attributable to this pollutant. Another problem is household air pollution by using stoves burning biomass fuels, where excessive indoor exposure to PM 2.5 inside the household is responsible for approximately 3,000 annual premature deaths among adults, with another unknown number of deaths among children due to respiratory infections. Water pollution is caused by sewage discharges into rivers, minerals (arsenic) from various sources, and failure of water treatment plants. In Peru, climate change may impact the frequency and severity of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has been associated with an increase in cases of diseases such as cholera, malaria and dengue. Climate change increases the temperature and can extend the areas affected by vector-borne diseases, have impact on the availability of water and contamination of the air. In conclusion, Peru is going through a transition of environmental risk factors, where traditional and modern risks coexist and infectious and chronic problems remain, some of which are associated with problems of pollution of water and air. PMID:25418656

  15. Climate Change and Expected Impacts on the Global Water Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rind, David; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    How the elements of the global hydrologic cycle may respond to climate change is reviewed, first from a discussion of the physical sensitivity of these elements to changes in temperature, and then from a comparison of observations of hydrologic changes over the past 100 million years. Observations of current changes in the hydrologic cycle are then compared with projected future changes given the prospect of global warming. It is shown that some of the projections come close to matching the estimated hydrologic changes that occurred long ago when the earth was very warm.

  16. Potential climate change impacts on temperate forest ecosystem processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Emily B.; Wythers, Kirk R.; Zhang, Shuxia; Bradford, John B.; Reich, Peter B.

    2013-01-01

    Large changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature and precipitation are predicted by 2100, yet the long-term consequences for carbon, water, and nitrogen cycling in forests are poorly understood. We applied the PnET-CN ecosystem model to compare the long-term effects of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 on productivity, evapotranspiration, runoff, and net nitrogen mineralization in current Great Lakes forest types. We used two statistically downscaled climate projections, PCM B1 (warmer and wetter) and GFDL A1FI (hotter and drier), to represent two potential future climate and atmospheric CO2 scenarios. To separate the effects of climate and CO2, we ran PnET-CN including and excluding the CO2 routine. Our results suggest that, with rising CO2 and without changes in forest type, average regional productivity could increase from 67% to 142%, changes in evapotranspiration could range from –3% to +6%, runoff could increase from 2% to 22%, and net N mineralization could increase 10% to 12%. Ecosystem responses varied geographically and by forest type. Increased productivity was almost entirely driven by CO2 fertilization effects, rather than by temperature or precipitation (model runs holding CO2 constant showed stable or declining productivity). The relative importance of edaphic and climatic spatial drivers of productivity varied over time, suggesting that productivity in Great Lakes forests may switch from being temperature to water limited by the end of the century.

  17. Inventory of Research on the Impacts of Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change is one of the greatest threats for the global environment today. Global mean temperature has risen by about 0.6C during the 20th century, greater than during any other century in the last 1000 years. Subsequently, climate change is likely to have detrimental effects on all global natural and anthropogenic systems. Climate change will have consequences for the structure and function of ecosystems and all the major global biomes. Also agricultural production and productivity will alter, and physical effects will take place on the environment affecting those that inhabit it. For example, sea level rise and climatic variations will have implications for human health, land use and coastal infrastructure. This report aims to identify the current and proposed research and assessments being undertaken by international organizations as well as the major national research groups regarding climate change and its effects on ecosystems, on agriculture (including fisheries and forestry) and on the economy and human society. The report also identifies possible gaps in this research

  18. A New Economic Assessment Index for the Impact of Climate Change on Grain Yield

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community.This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional "yield impact of meteorological factor (YIMF)" or "yield impact of weather factor" to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore,the concept of the yield impact of climatic change (YICC), which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields (PUAY) of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China,and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.

  19. Impact of Climate Change on Five Major Crop Fungal Diseases: Building Climatic Indicators of Infection Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Launay, M.; Caubel, J.; Bourgeois, G.; Huard, F.; Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, I.

    2013-12-01

    The climate change will modify the severity and occurrence of fungal crop diseases, as the bioclimatic niches of pathogens will shift according to temperature and rainfall patterns evolution. Therefore it becomes necessary to integrate fungal disease pressure assessment into evaluation tools of crop suitability at the regional level. The aim of this study was to build two climatic indicators, the Average Infection Efficiency (AIE) and the Number of Infection Days (NID), quantifying the potential effect of climate on infection intensity and occurrence. A simple and continuous function was developed to calculate them, which is easy to parameterize from experimental measurements, usable on large spatial scales and adaptable to various pathogens. The evolution of those climatic indicators was then studied for five major fungal crop diseases in Northern France, the phoma of oilseed rape, the potato late blight, the downy mildew of grape, the leaf rust of wheat and the net blotch of barley. These indicators were applied on a multisite analysis in Northern France. They were calculated during the crop cycle when the host plant is able to be infected, over the period between 1970 and 2100 for the balanced scenario of climate change A1B. In late spring and summer, higher temperatures combined with lower humidity reduced the risk of infection of potato late blight and downy mildew of grape. In autumn and spring the balance between warmer temperatures and lower humidity determined the risk of infection on oilseed rape and cereals: increased risk in late autumn and early spring, and decreased risk in early autumn and mid-spring when low humidity becomes limiting. This statement highlighted the need for using between year scale for a relevant analysis of climate change impact on infection risk. The indicators we developed are thus useful for land management at regional scale and medium term, in particular for stakeholders who need decision support tools through which they could

  20. Impacts on Canadian Competitiveness of International Climate Change Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robin Somerville

    1998-06-01

    Full Text Available This article summarizes and provides additional perspective on a study that contributes to the growing body of analyses of the costs of limiting greenhouse gas emissions. The study estimates the economic costs to Canada of six planning scenarios. Four of these scenarios involve the use of tradable emission permits and two involved a carbon tax. In each case, the mechanism's target is to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at some percentage of 1990 levels (100% or 90% by either 2010 or 2015. Policies that impose greater constraints on carbon dioxide emissions lead to higher economic costs in terms of foregone output. These costs, however, vary for the same objective, depending on the mechanism chosen and the economic assumptions made. In one typical scenario, in which tradable emission permits are used to achieve stabilization at 1990 levels by 2010, GDP is depressed from the "business-as-usual" scenario by about 2% for the first decade, after which it recovers to business-as-usual levels. Generally, for all scenarios, the economic impact of climate change mitigation imposes a transition cost on the economy, but the long-term productive capacity of the economy is not significantly affected.

  1. The importance of glacier and forest change in hydrological climate-impact studies

    OpenAIRE

    N. Köplin; B. Schädler; D. Viviroli; R. Weingartner

    2012-01-01

    Changes in land cover alter the water balance components of a catchment, due to strong interactions between soils, vegetation and the atmosphere. Therefore, hydrological climate impact studies should also integrate scenarios of associated land cover change. To reflect two severe climate-induced changes in land cover, we applied scenarios of glacier retreat and forest cover increase that were derived from the temperature signals of the climate scenarios used in this study. The climate s...

  2. The importance of glacier and forest change in hydrological climate-impact studies

    OpenAIRE

    Köplin, Nina; Schädler, Bruno; Viviroli, Daniel; Weingartner, Rolf

    2013-01-01

    Changes in land cover alter the water balance components of a catchment, due to strong interactions between soils, vegetation and the atmosphere. Therefore, hydrological climate impact studies should also integrate scenarios of associated land cover change. To reflect two severe climate-induced changes in land cover, we applied scenarios of glacier retreat and forest cover increase that were derived from the temperature signals of the climate scenarios used in this study. The climate scenario...

  3. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... can be caused by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. Climate change can affect our health. It can lead to More heat-related illness ...

  4. Climate change and plant health; Development of a conceptual frame-work for impact assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Breukers, M.L.H.

    2010-01-01

    This report presents a conceptual framework for systematic assessment of direct economic impacts of climate change on pest and disease management at the crop level. The framework evaluates and aggregates the effects, and subsequently impacts, of climate change on selected pests and diseases and their control in a particular crop. Application of the framework reveals opportunities and threats in crop protection resulting from climate change, and can direct future adaptation efforts.

  5. Isolating the impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow

    OpenAIRE

    Chawla, I.; P. P. Mujumdar

    2015-01-01

    Streamflow regime is sensitive to changes in land use and climate in a river basin. Quantifying the isolated and integrated impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow is challenging as well as crucial to optimally manage water resources in the river basin. This paper presents a simple hydrologic modelling based approach to segregate the impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow of a river basin. The upper Ganga basin in India is selected as t...

  6. Impacts of Europe's changing climate. An indicator-based assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    The impacts of climate change on Europe's environment and society are shown in this report. Past trends in the climate, its current state and possible future changes are presented using 22 selected indicators. For almost all of these a clear trend exists and impacts are already being observed. The report highlights the need to develop strategies at European, national, regional and local level for adapting to climate change.

  7. Agriculture and adaptation in Bangladesh: Current and projected impacts of climate change:

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas, Timothy S.; Mainuddin, Khandaker; Chiang, Catherine; Rahman, Aminur; Haque, Anwarul; Islam, Nazria; Quasem, Saad; Sun, Yun

    2013-01-01

    The goal of this research was to examine the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture in Bangladesh, and develop recommendations to policymakers to help farmers adapt to the changes. In this study, we use climate data from four general circulation models (GCMs) to evaluate the impact of climate change on agriculture in Bangladesh by 2050. We use the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) crop modeling software to evaluate crop yields, first for the 1950 to 2000 per...

  8. Climate change and the cultural environment: Recognized impacts challenges in Finland

    OpenAIRE

    BerghÀll, Jonna; Pesu, Minna

    2008-01-01

    Climate change impacts the cultural heritage of Finland. Adaptation and mitigation measures are posing challenges along with the consequences of climate change. Cultural landscapes, the built cultural environment and the archaeological heritage all will be affected. The impacts of climate change that Finland will face and the challenges posed by them for the care of the cultural environment also apply to the Boreal Zone of Northern Europe in more general terms. This report charts the chall...

  9. Impacts of Future Grassland Changes on Surface Climate in Mongolia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fan Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change caused by land use/cover change (LUCC is becoming a hot topic in current global change, especially the changes caused by the grassland degradation. In this paper, based on the baseline underlying surface data of 1993, the predicted underlying surface data which can be derived through overlaying the grassland degradation information to the map of baseline underlying surface, and the atmospheric forcing data of RCP 6.0 from CMIP5, climatological changes caused by future grassland changes for the years 2010–2020 and 2040–2050 with the Weather Research Forecast model (WRF are simulated. The model-based analysis shows that future grassland degradation will significantly result in regional climate change. The grassland degradation in future could lead to an increasing trend of temperature in most areas and corresponding change range of the annual average temperature of −0.1°C–0.4°C, and it will cause a decreasing trend of precipitation and corresponding change range of the annual average precipitation of 10 mm–50 mm. This study identifies lines of evidence for effects of future grassland degradation on regional climate in Mongolia which provides meaningful decision-making information for the development and strategy plan making in Mongolia.

  10. Minimizing Irreversible Impacts of Human-Made Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, J. E.

    2013-12-01

    Earth's measured energy imbalance and paleoclimate data, along with fundamental carbon cycle and energy cycle considerations, severely constrain future fossil fuel emissions, if disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature are to be averted. Although detectable climate effects already exist, it seems technically feasible to restore Earth's energy balance, without hard geo-engineering, before disastrous consequences are inevitable. The barriers to achievement of climate stabilization appear to be political, but I will argue that our biggest shortcomings have been a failure to communicate the full scientific and technical information that we possess.

  11. Burgundy regional climate change and its potential impact on grapevines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Yiwen [University of Burgundy, Center for Climate Research, UMR 5210 CNRS, Dijon (France); G.C. Rieber Climate Institute at the Nansen Environment and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen (Norway); Castel, Thierry [University of Burgundy, Center for Climate Research, UMR 5210 CNRS, Dijon (France); AgroSup, Department of Agriculture and Environment, Dijon (France); Richard, Yves; Cuccia, Cedric [University of Burgundy, Center for Climate Research, UMR 5210 CNRS, Dijon (France); Bois, Benjamin [University of Burgundy, Center for Climate Research, UMR 5210 CNRS, Dijon (France); IUVV, University of Burgundy, Dijon (France)

    2012-10-15

    ARPEGE general circulation model simulations were dynamically downscaled by The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) for the study of climate change and its impact on grapevine growth in Burgundy region in France by the mid twenty-first century. Two time periods were selected: 1970-1979 and 2031-2040. The WRF model driven by ERA-INTERIM reanalysis data was validated against in situ surface temperature observations. The daily maximum and minimum surface temperature (T{sub max} and T{sub min}) were simulated by the WRF model at 8 x 8 km horizontal resolution. The averaged daily T{sub max} for each month during 1970-1979 have good agreement with observations, the averaged daily T{sub min} have a warm bias about 1-2 K. The daily T{sub max} and T{sub min} for each month (domain averaged) during 2031-2040 show a general increase. The largest increment ({proportional_to}3 K) was found in summer. The smallest increments (<1 K) were found in spring and fall. The spatial distribution of temperature increment shows a strong meridional gradient, high in south in summer, reversing in winter. The resulting potential warming rate in summer is equivalent to 4.7 K/century under the IPCC A2 emission scenario. The dynamically downscaled T{sub max} and T{sub min} were used to simulate the grape (Pinot noir grape variety) flowering and veraison dates. For 2031-2040, the projected dates are 8 and 12 days earlier than those during 1970-1979, respectively. The simulated hot days increase more than 50% in the two principal grapevine regions. They show strong impact on Pinot noir development. (orig.)

  12. The impact of climate change on lakes in the Netherlands: a review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mooij, W.M.; Hülsmann, S.; De Senerpont Domis, L.N.; Nolet, B.A.; Bodelier, P.L.E.; Boers, P.; Pires, L.M.D.; Gons, H.J.; Ibelings, B.W.; Noordhuis, R.; Portielje, R.; Wolfstein, K.; Wolfstein, R.; Lammens, E.H.R.R.

    2005-01-01

    Climate change will alter freshwater ecosystems but specific effects will vary among regions and the type of water body. Here, we give an integrative review of the observed and predicted impacts of climate change on shallow lakes in the Netherlands and put these impacts in an international perspecti

  13. Use of RCM simulations to assess the impact of climate change on wind energy availability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pryor, S.C.; Barthelmie, Rebecca Jane

    2004-01-01

    There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on the feasibility and predictability of renewable energy sources including wind energy. This report presents an application and evaluation of physical (dynamical) downscaling toolsfor examining the impact of climate change on...

  14. Climate change and plant health; Development of a conceptual frame-work for impact assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Breukers, M.L.H.

    2010-01-01

    This report presents a conceptual framework for systematic assessment of direct economic impacts of climate change on pest and disease management at the crop level. The framework evaluates and aggregates the effects, and subsequently impacts, of climate change on selected pests and diseases and thei

  15. Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, P.; Olsson, J.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten;

    Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage Systems provides a state-of-the-art overview of existing methodologies and relevant results related to the assessment of the climate change impacts on urban rainfall extremes as well as on urban hydrology and hydraulics. This overv...

  16. Climate Change Impact on Evapotranspiration, Heat Stress and Chill Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snyder, R. L.; Marras, S.; Spano, D.

    2013-12-01

    Carbon dioxide concentration scenarios project an increase in CO2 from 372 ppm to between 500 and 950 ppm by the year 2100, and the potential effect on temperature, humidity, and plant responses to environmental factors are complex and concerning. For 2100, mean daily temperature increase projections range from 1.2oC to 6.8oC depending on greenhouse gas emissions. On the bad side, higher temperatures are often associated with increases in evapotranspiration (ET), heat stress, and pest infestations. On the good side, increased temperature is commonly related to less frost damage, faster growth, and higher production in some cases. One misconception is that global warming will increase evapotranspiration and, hence, agricultural water demand. As the oceans and other water bodies warm, evaporation and humidity are likely to increase globally, but higher humidity tends to reduce plant transpiration and hence ET. Higher CO2 concentrations also tend to reduce ET, and, in the end, the increase in ET due to higher temperature is likely to be offset by a decrease in ET due to higher humidity and CO2. With a decrease in daytime evapotranspiration, the canopy temperature is likely to rise relative to the air temperature, and this implies that heat stress could be worse than predicted by increased air temperature. Daily minimum temperatures are generally increasing about twice as fast as maximum temperatures presumably because of the increasing dew point temperatures as more water vapor is added to the atmosphere. This could present a serious problem to meet the chill requirement for fruit and nut crops. Growing seasons, i.e., from the last spring to the first fall frost, are likely to increase, but the crop growth period is likely to shorten due to higher temperature. Thus, spring frost damage is unlikely to change but there should be fewer damaging fall frost events. In this paper, we will present some ideas on the possible impact of climate change on evapotranspiration and

  17. Impacts of climate change on water resources in southern Africa: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusangaya, Samuel; Warburton, Michele L.; Archer van Garderen, Emma; Jewitt, Graham P. W.

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that there is consensus that the increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases will result in climate change which will cause the sea level to rise, increased frequency of extreme climatic events including intense storms, heavy rainfall events and droughts. This will increase the frequency of climate-related hazards, causing loss of life, social disruption and economic hardships. There is less consensus on the magnitude of change of climatic variables, but several studies have shown that climate change will impact on the availability and demand for water resources. In southern Africa, climate change is likely to affect nearly every aspect of human well-being, from agricultural productivity and energy use to flood control, municipal and industrial water supply to wildlife management, since the region is characterised by highly spatial and temporally variable rainfall and, in some cases, scarce water resources. Vulnerability is exacerbated by the region's low adaptive capacity, widespread poverty and low technology uptake. This paper reviews the potential impacts of climate change on water resources in southern Africa. The outcomes of this review include highlighting studies on detected climate changes particularly focusing on temperature and rainfall. Additionally, the impacts of climate change are highlighted, and respective studies on hydrological responses to climate change are examined. The review also discusses the challenges in climate change impact analysis, which inevitably represents existing research and knowledge gaps. Finally the paper concludes by outlining possible research areas in the realm of climate change impacts on water resources, particularly knowledge gaps in uncertainty analysis for both climate change and hydrological modelling.

  18. From Global Climate Model Projections to Local Impacts Assessments: Analyses in Support of Planning for Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snover, A. K.; Littell, J. S.; Mantua, N. J.; Salathe, E. P.; Hamlet, A. F.; McGuire Elsner, M.; Tohver, I.; Lee, S.

    2010-12-01

    Assessing and planning for the impacts of climate change require regionally-specific information. Information is required not only about projected changes in climate but also the resultant changes in natural and human systems at the temporal and spatial scales of management and decision making. Therefore, climate impacts assessment typically results in a series of analyses, in which relatively coarse-resolution global climate model projections of changes in regional climate are downscaled to provide appropriate input to local impacts models. This talk will describe recent examples in which coarse-resolution (~150 to 300km) GCM output was “translated” into information requested by decision makers at relatively small (watershed) and large (multi-state) scales using regional climate modeling, statistical downscaling, hydrologic modeling, and sector-specific impacts modeling. Projected changes in local air temperature, precipitation, streamflow, and stream temperature were developed to support Seattle City Light’s assessment of climate change impacts on hydroelectric operations, future electricity load, and resident fish populations. A state-wide assessment of climate impacts on eight sectors (agriculture, coasts, energy, forests, human health, hydrology and water resources, salmon, and urban stormwater infrastructure) was developed for Washington State to aid adaptation planning. Hydro-climate change scenarios for approximately 300 streamflow locations in the Columbia River basin and selected coastal drainages west of the Cascades were developed in partnership with major water management agencies in the Pacific Northwest to allow planners to consider how hydrologic changes may affect management objectives. Treatment of uncertainty in these assessments included: using “bracketing” scenarios to describe a range of impacts, using ensemble averages to characterize the central estimate of future conditions (given an emissions scenario), and explicitly assessing

  19. Join our free event: Evaluating the impact of climate change research

    OpenAIRE

    Blog Admin, Impact of Social Sciences,

    2012-01-01

    The LSE Public Policy Group/ Impact of Social Sciences project, with Imperial College London, are today hosting ‘Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change Research’, a free-half day conference at the LSE.

  20. Economic impact of climate change : simulations with a regionalized climate-economy model

    OpenAIRE

    Deke, Oliver; Hooss, Kurt Georg; Kasten, Christiane; Klepper, Gernot; Springer, Katrin

    2001-01-01

    Climate change affects the physical and biological system in many regions of the world. The extent to which human systems will suffer economically from climate change depends on the adaptive capabilities within a region as well as across regions. We use an economic General-Equilibrium model and an Ocean-Atmosphere model in a regionally and sectorally disaggregated framework to analyze adaptation to climate change in different regions of the world. It turns out that vulnerability to climate im...

  1. Climate change policy positive or negative economic impact? Why?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kupers, R.T.L.; Mangalagiu, D.

    2010-01-01

    ECF initiates and performs high-class research on climate change in close interaction with stakeholders. We provide a pluralistic communication platform in the emerging global field of researchers, governments, local authorities, businesses, and social movements. This field lies beyond the tradition

  2. Climate-change impact potentials as an alternative to global warming potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For policy applications, such as for the Kyoto Protocol, the climate-change contributions of different greenhouse gases are usually quantified through their global warming potentials. They are calculated based on the cumulative radiative forcing resulting from a pulse emission of a gas over a specified time period. However, these calculations are not explicitly linked to an assessment of ultimate climate-change impacts. A new metric, the climate-change impact potential (CCIP), is presented here that is based on explicitly defining the climate-change perturbations that lead to three different kinds of climate-change impacts. These kinds of impacts are: (1) those related directly to temperature increases; (2) those related to the rate of warming; and (3) those related to cumulative warming. From those definitions, a quantitative assessment of the importance of pulse emissions of each gas is developed, with each kind of impact assigned equal weight for an overall impact assessment. Total impacts are calculated under the RCP6 concentration pathway as a base case. The relevant climate-change impact potentials are then calculated as the marginal increase of those impacts over 100 years through the emission of an additional unit of each gas in 2010. These calculations are demonstrated for CO2, methane and nitrous oxide. Compared with global warming potentials, climate-change impact potentials would increase the importance of pulse emissions of long-lived nitrous oxide and reduce the importance of short-lived methane. (paper)

  3. Climate-change impact potentials as an alternative to global warming potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirschbaum, Miko U. F.

    2014-03-01

    For policy applications, such as for the Kyoto Protocol, the climate-change contributions of different greenhouse gases are usually quantified through their global warming potentials. They are calculated based on the cumulative radiative forcing resulting from a pulse emission of a gas over a specified time period. However, these calculations are not explicitly linked to an assessment of ultimate climate-change impacts. A new metric, the climate-change impact potential (CCIP), is presented here that is based on explicitly defining the climate-change perturbations that lead to three different kinds of climate-change impacts. These kinds of impacts are: (1) those related directly to temperature increases; (2) those related to the rate of warming; and (3) those related to cumulative warming. From those definitions, a quantitative assessment of the importance of pulse emissions of each gas is developed, with each kind of impact assigned equal weight for an overall impact assessment. Total impacts are calculated under the RCP6 concentration pathway as a base case. The relevant climate-change impact potentials are then calculated as the marginal increase of those impacts over 100 years through the emission of an additional unit of each gas in 2010. These calculations are demonstrated for CO2, methane and nitrous oxide. Compared with global warming potentials, climate-change impact potentials would increase the importance of pulse emissions of long-lived nitrous oxide and reduce the importance of short-lived methane.

  4. Overview of Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation in China’s Agriculture

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Jin-xia; HUANG Ji-kun; YANG Jun

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to document the likely impacts of climate change on China’s agriculture and the current adaptation efforts made by government and farmers. The review of literature shows that climate change will have a signiifcant impact on agriculture, primarily through its effect on crop yields. The extent of predicted impacts highly depends on the crop, the CO2 fertilization effect assumption and adaptation abilities. Market response to the production shocks resulting from climate change will lessen the impacts on agricultural production predicted by natural scientists. On adaptation, the government’s major efforts have been in the developing new technologies, reforming extension system and enhancing institutional capacity. Farmers do adapt to climate change, but their adaptation measures cannot fully offset the negative impacts of climate change. The paper concludes and makes implications for future studies.

  5. A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

    2013-04-01

    Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change

  6. Climate change impact on wave energy in the Persian Gulf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamranzad, Bahareh; Etemad-Shahidi, Amir; Chegini, Vahid; Yeganeh-Bakhtiary, Abbas

    2015-06-01

    Excessive usage of fossil fuels and high emission of greenhouse gases have increased the earth's temperature, and consequently have changed the patterns of natural phenomena such as wind speed, wave height, etc. Renewable energy resources are ideal alternatives to reduce the negative effects of increasing greenhouse gases emission and climate change. However, these energy sources are also sensitive to changing climate. In this study, the effect of climate change on wave energy in the Persian Gulf is investigated. For this purpose, future wind data obtained from CGCM3.1 model were downscaled using a hybrid approach and modification factors were computed based on local wind data (ECMWF) and applied to control and future CGCM3.1 wind data. Downscaled wind data was used to generate the wave characteristics in the future based on A2, B1, and A1B scenarios, while ECMWF wind field was used to generate the wave characteristics in the control period. The results of these two 30-yearly wave modelings using SWAN model showed that the average wave power changes slightly in the future. Assessment of wave power spatial distribution showed that the reduction of the average wave power is more in the middle parts of the Persian Gulf. Investigation of wave power distribution in two coastal stations (Boushehr and Assalouyeh ports) indicated that the annual wave energy will decrease in both stations while the wave power distribution for different intervals of significant wave height and peak period will also change in Assalouyeh according to all scenarios.

  7. Planning for climate change: The need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellor, Jonathan E; Levy, Karen; Zimmerman, Julie; Elliott, Mark; Bartram, Jamie; Carlton, Elizabeth; Clasen, Thomas; Dillingham, Rebecca; Eisenberg, Joseph; Guerrant, Richard; Lantagne, Daniele; Mihelcic, James; Nelson, Kara

    2016-04-01

    Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying disease transmission processes and substantial uncertainty surrounding current estimates. This makes it difficult to recommend appropriate adaptation strategies. We review the relevant climate-related mechanisms behind transmission of diarrheal disease pathogens and argue that systems-based mechanistic approaches incorporating human, engineered and environmental components are urgently needed. We then review successful systems-based approaches used in other environmental health fields and detail one modeling framework to predict climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases and design adaptation strategies. PMID:26799810

  8. Multi-model approach to assess the impact of climate change on runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dams, J.; Nossent, J.; Senbeta, T. B.; Willems, P.; Batelaan, O.

    2015-10-01

    The assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology is subject to uncertainties related to the climate change scenarios, stochastic uncertainties of the hydrological model and structural uncertainties of the hydrological model. This paper focuses on the contribution of structural uncertainty of hydrological models to the overall uncertainty of the climate change impact assessment. To quantify the structural uncertainty of hydrological models, four physically based hydrological models (SWAT, PRMS and a semi- and fully distributed version of the WetSpa model) are set up for a catchment in Belgium. Each model is calibrated using four different objective functions. Three climate change scenarios with a high, mean and low hydrological impact are statistically perturbed from a large ensemble of climate change scenarios and are used to force the hydrological models. This methodology allows assessing and comparing the uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios with the uncertainty introduced by the hydrological model structure. Results show that the hydrological model structure introduces a large uncertainty on both the average monthly discharge and the extreme peak and low flow predictions under the climate change scenarios. For the low impact climate change scenario, the uncertainty range of the mean monthly runoff is comparable to the range of these runoff values in the reference period. However, for the mean and high impact scenarios, this range is significantly larger. The uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios is larger than the uncertainty due to the hydrological model structure for the low and mean hydrological impact scenarios, but the reverse is true for the high impact climate change scenario. The mean and high impact scenarios project increasing peak discharges, while the low impact scenario projects increasing peak discharges only for peak events with return periods larger than 1.6 years. All models suggest for all scenarios a

  9. Drought and climatic change impact on streamflow in small watersheds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tigkas, Dimitris; Vangelis, Harris; Tsakiris, George

    2012-12-01

    The paper presents a comprehensive, thought simple, methodology, for forecasting the annual hydrological drought, based on meteorological drought indications available early during the hydrological year. The meteorological drought of 3, 6 and 9 months is estimated using the reconnaissance drought index (RDI), whereas the annual hydrological drought is represented by the streamflow drought index (SDI). Regression equations are derived between RDI and SDI, forecasting the level of hydrological drought for the entire year in real time. Further, using a wide range of scenarios representing possible climatic changes and drought events of varying severity, nomographs are devised for estimating the annual streamflow change. The Medbasin rainfall-runoff model is used to link meteorological data to streamflow. The later approach can be useful for developing preparedness plans to combat the consequences of drought and climate change. As a case study, the area of N. Peloponnese (Greece) was selected, incorporating several small river basins. PMID:22963988

  10. Future changes of the atmospheric composition and the impact of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grewe, V.; Dameris, M.; Hein, R.; Sausen, R. [DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Wessling (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere; Steil, B. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Chemie (Otto-Hahn-Institut), Mainz (Germany). Abt. Chemie der Atmosphaere

    1999-05-01

    The development of the future atmospheric chemical composition, with respect of NO{sub y} and O{sub 3} is investigated by means of the off-line coupled dynamic-chemical general circulation model ECHAM3/CHEM. Two time slice experiments have been performed for the years 1992 and 2015, which include changes in sea surface temperatures, greenhouse gas concentrations, emissions of CFCs, NO{sub x} and other species, i.e., the 2015 simulation accounts for changes in chemically relevant emissions and for a climate change and its impact on air chemistry. The 2015 simulation clearly shows a global increase in ozone except for large areas of the lower stratosphere, where no significant changes or even decreases in the ozone concentration are found. For a better understanding of the importance of (A) emissions like NO{sub x} and CFCs, (B) future changes of air temperature and water vapour concentration, and (C) other dynamic parameters, like precipitation and changes in the circulation, i.e. wind speed, diabatic circulation, stratosphere-troposphere-exchange, the simulation of the future atmosphere has been performed stepwise. This method requires a climate-chemistry model without interactive coupling of chemical species. Model results show that the direct effect of emissions (A) plays a major role for the composition of the future atmosphere, but they also clearly show that climate change has a significant impact and strongly reduces the NO{sub y} and ozone concentration in the lower stratosphere. (orig.)

  11. The impact of the endogenous technical change on climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This research aims at revisiting the 'autonomous vs. induced' debate on the costs of climate policies, first by broadening the framework of the technical change induction to other economical sectors, and then by attempting to go beyond the concept of technical change induction and think in terms of a structural change induction. After a review of modes of representation of the technical progress in economical prospective models for the assessment of climate policies, the author presents the IMACLIM-R model, a recursive general equilibrium model which simulates the evolution of the world economy within 12 regions and 12 sectors between 2001 and 2100. The results obtained with this model are then presented and discussed, in the case of a reference scenario which displays a significant change towards a carbon-intensive path. These results stress the risks related to a 'laissez faire' attitude. The author explores the consequences in terms of climate policies with a more or less extended taking into account of phenomena of induction of technical and structural changes

  12. Data driven approaches vs. qualitative approaches in climate change impact and vulnerability assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zebisch, Marc; Schneiderbauer, Stefan; Petitta, Marcello

    2015-04-01

    In the last decade the scope of climate change science has broadened significantly. 15 years ago the focus was mainly on understanding climate change, providing climate change scenarios and giving ideas about potential climate change impacts. Today, adaptation to climate change has become an increasingly important field of politics and one role of science is to inform and consult this process. Therefore, climate change science is not anymore focusing on data driven approaches only (such as climate or climate impact models) but is progressively applying and relying on qualitative approaches including opinion and expertise acquired through interactive processes with local stakeholders and decision maker. Furthermore, climate change science is facing the challenge of normative questions, such us 'how important is a decrease of yield in a developed country where agriculture only represents 3% of the GDP and the supply with agricultural products is strongly linked to global markets and less depending on local production?'. In this talk we will present examples from various applied research and consultancy projects on climate change vulnerabilities including data driven methods (e.g. remote sensing and modelling) to semi-quantitative and qualitative assessment approaches. Furthermore, we will discuss bottlenecks, pitfalls and opportunities in transferring climate change science to policy and decision maker oriented climate services.

  13. Foreword to the special issue: climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in the Arctic

    OpenAIRE

    Ford, James D; Furgal, Chris

    2009-01-01

    The Arctic climate is changing, carrying wide-ranging implications for indigenous and non-indigenous inhabitants, businesses, industry and government across the circumpolar region. The latest scientific assessments indicate that change is happening faster than previously thought, and that the Arctic will continue to experience dramatic climate change in the future. This special edition of Polar Research brings together nine papers on climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in the...

  14. Potential Impact of Climate Change on Ecosystems of the Barents Sea Region

    OpenAIRE

    RODERFELD Hedwig; Blyth, Eleanor; DANKERS RUTGER; Huse, Geir; Slagstad, Dag; Ellingsen, Ingrid; Wolf, Annett; Lange, Manfred A.

    2008-01-01

    The EU project BALANCE (Global Change Vulnerabilities in the Barents region: Linking Arctic Natural Resources, Climate Change and Economies) aims to assess vulnerability to climate change in the Barents Sea Region. As a prerequisite the potential impact of climate change on selected ecosystems of the study area has to be quantified, which is the subject of the present paper. A set of ecosystem models was run to generate baseline and future scenarios for 1990, 2020, 2050 and 2080. The models a...

  15. Climate change in Guadiana river basin and its impacts on crop water demand

    OpenAIRE

    Valverde, Pedro; Serralheiro, Ricardo; Carvalho, Mário; Shahidian, Shakib

    2013-01-01

    This study evaluates climate change tendencies over several climatic parameters observed in the Guadiana river basin, south Portugal and its potential impacts on crop water and irrigation requirements. Parameters analyzed were annual rainfall and its seasonal distribution, temperature and evapotranspiration, collected from available regional meteorological data from a 46-year period (1963-2009). The impacts of climate change in Guadiana basin’s irrigated crops was studied running long-term so...

  16. ESTIMATING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SOIL EROSION IN MEDITERRANEAN WATERSHEDS

    OpenAIRE

    Nunes, João Pedro; Lima, Júlio C.; Jannin, Léonard; Sampaio, Elsa; Rial-Rivas, Maria Ermitas; Moreira, Madalena; Keizer, Jan Jakob; Corte-Real, João

    2011-01-01

    Climate change could impact soil erosion in Mediterranean regions, through both higher climatic aridity - leading to less vegetation cover - and higher winter rainfall intensity. This could have the effect of increasing soil degradation and accelarating ongoing desertification processes. Project ERLAND aims to study the potential impacts of climate changes on vegetation growth, hydrology and erosion in Portuguese watersheds, and define the costs and benefits of different adaptation options. T...

  17. A Health Impact Assessment Framework for Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptation Planning for Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Helen Brown; Jeffery Spickett; Dianne Katscherian

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a detailed description of an approach designed to investigate the application of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework to assess the potential health impacts of climate change. A HIA framework has been combined with key climate change terminology and concepts. The fundamental premise of this framework is an understanding of the interactions between people, the environment and climate. The diversity and complexity of these interactions can hinder much needed action o...

  18. Biophysical and Economic Uncertainty in the Analysis of Poverty Impacts of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Hertel, Thomas W.; Lobell, David; Verma, Monika

    2011-01-01

    This paper seeks to understand the main sources of uncertainty in assessing the impacts of climate change on agricultural output, international trade, and poverty. We incorporate biophysical uncertainty by sampling from a distribution of productivity shocks reflecting the impacts of climate on agricultural yields in 2030. These shocks, in turn, affect the global economy. The response of economic agents to climate change is the second source of uncertainty in our estimates. We find that, even ...

  19. Cumulative Impacts of Energy and Climate Change Policies on Carbon Leakage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Varma, A.; Milnes, R.; Miller, K.; Williams, E. [AEA Technology plc, London (United Kingdom); De Bruyn, S.; Brinke, L. [CE Delft, Delft (Netherlands)

    2012-02-15

    Carbon leakage occurs when climate change policy aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions in one country leads to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions in a country that is not bound by these policies. Given that climate change is a global issue, carbon leakage impacts upon the effectiveness of climate change policies. This independent study examines the cumulative impact of climate change policies on carbon leakage. The report brings together findings and analysis from a wide range of primary literature in this area and where possible, conclusions relevant to the UK are drawn.

  20. A new dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Heinke

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature changeTglob has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalized patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilize a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

  1. Evaluation of climate change impacts on energy demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taseska, Verica; Markovska, Natasa; Callaway, John M.

    2012-01-01

    change and the energy demand in Macedonia. The analyses are conducted using the MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation)-Macedonia model, with a focus on energy demand in commercial and residential sectors (mainly for heating and cooling). Three different cases are developed: 1) Base Case, which gives the optimal...... Adaptation Case, in which the optimal electricity generation mix is determined by allowing for endogenous capacity adjustments in the model. This modeling exercise will identify the changes in the energy demand and in electricity generation mix in the Adaptation Case, as well as climate change damages and...

  2. Climate Change Impacts and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Effects on U.S. Hydropower Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change will have potentially significant effects on hydropower generation due to changes in the magnitude and seasonality of river runoff and increases in reservoir evaporation. These physical impacts will in turn have economic consequences through both producer revenues ...

  3. Vulnerability of Australian agriculture to climate change: sequencing impacts over IPCC trajectories for adaptation planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Full text: Agricultural systems are susceptible to adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. While the degree of vulnerability is a function of the magnitude and the rate of variation in climate exposure, agricultural systems with a stronger adaptive capacity are likely to be less vulnerable to climate change. In preparing the agriculture sector for ongoing climate change, adaptation planning to moderate potential impacts and to take advantage of opportunities, has emerged as an effective strategic response. Global climate change scenarios developed by the IPCC indicate that changes in climate may alter the production potential of agriculture across many regions. Wide regional variability in productivity, extensive land use and the dominance in rural economies across Australia could expose agriculture to considerable risks from climate change impacts. In many cases these risks could cascade across a range of sectors and vary overtime, reflecting the capacity of exposed enterprises to adapt to a changing climate by taking advantage of opportunities. Effective planning of adaptation responses will require integrated assessments of regional vulnerability to climate risks over IPCC projection trajectories. In this paper, we present a method for estimating and mapping vulnerability to climate risks at the regional level, and apply this method to examine the vulnerability of Australian agriculture to climate change, focusing on case studies drawn from dryland broadacre and irrigated horticulture industries. In developing a conceptual framework for assessing vulnerability and adaptation options, the paper provides a review of key approaches used globally for the assessment of vulnerability to climate change in agriculture. It presents an approach to link global climate change scenario-based projections for assessing economic impacts on industries and regions through a process that maps climate risks to factors contributing

  4. Climate Change Impact Assessment for Sustainable Water Quality Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Pin Tung

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of sustainable water quality management is to keep total pollutant discharges from exceeding the assimilation capacity of a water body. Climate change may influence streamflows, and further alter assimilation capacity and degrade river sustainability. The purposes of this study are to evaluate the effect of climate change on sustainable water quality management and design an early warning indicator to issue warnings on river sustainability. A systematic assessment procedure is proposed here, including a weather generation model, the streamflow component of GWLF, QUAL2E, and an optimization model. The Touchen creek in Taiwan is selected as the study area. Future climate scenarios derived from projections of four global climate models (GCMs and two pollutant discharge scenarios, as usual and proportional to population, are considered in this study. The results indicate that streamflows may very likely increase in humid seasons and decrease in arid seasons, respectively. The reduction of streamflow in arid seasons may further degrade water quality and assimilation capacity. In order to provide warnings to trigger necessary adaptation strategies, an early warning indicator is designed and its 30-year moving average is calculated. Finally, environmental monitoring systems and methods to prioritize adaptation strategies are discussed for further studies in the future.

  5. Discerning Climate and Land-use Change Impacts on Watershed Hydrology: Implications for Gulf Hypoxia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Impacts of climate change on watershed hydrology are subtle compared to cycles of drought and surplus precipitation (PPT), and difficult to separate from effects of land-use change. In the U.S. Midwest, increasing baseflow has been more attributed to increased annual cropping than climate change. Th...

  6. Simulation of Land-Cover Change in Taipei Metropolitan Area under Climate Change Impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change causes environment change and shows up on land covers. Through observing the change of land use, researchers can find out the trend and potential mechanism of the land cover change. Effective adaptation policies can affect pattern of land cover change and may decrease the risks of climate change impacts. By simulating land use dynamics with scenario settings, this paper attempts to explore the relationship between climate change and land-cover change through efficient adaptation polices. It involves spatial statistical model in estimating possibility of land-cover change, cellular automata model in modeling land-cover dynamics, and scenario analysis in response to adaptation polices. The results show that, without any control, the critical eco-areas, such as estuarine areas, will be destroyed and people may move to the vulnerable and important economic development areas. In the other hand, under the limited development condition for adaptation, people migration to peri-urban and critical eco-areas may be deterred

  7. Economic perspectives on the impact of climate variability and change: A summary report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A summary is presented of a collection of papers on the economic methodologies applicable to studies of the impact of global climate variability and change. The research was sponsored by the Canadian Climate program and was conducted as part of a project investigating the potential impacts on various sectors of the Canadian economy of climate warming due to the greenhouse effect. Topics of the papers include microeconomic analysis, benefit/cost analysis, input-output analysis, policy options regarding water levels in the Great Lakes, the scenario approach to assessing socio-economic sensitivities to climate change in the agri-food sector, and analysis of weather impacts. Several analytical tools are seen to be readily applicable to economic analyses of the effects of climate change, and issues of future water supply and demand are seen as central to climate impact assessment, and of particular concern to Canada

  8. Climate change: a review of its health impact and perceived awareness by the young citizens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Muhammad Sabbir; Mohamad, Osman Bin; Zarim, Zainal bin Abu

    2014-07-01

    In recent time climate change and its impact on human health and awareness constitute a set of complex and serious consequences to be tackled by an individual country. Climate change is not merely an environmental issue, but also it is a threat that goes beyond national borders. The purpose of this study is to identify the awareness and the impact of climate change, perceived by the young citizens in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences. Based on a survey of 200 respondents from different public and private University's students in Malaysia, this research used descriptive statistics and T-test to look into the research objective. The results revealed media can play an important role in the awareness of climate change. Meanwhile the male respondents have shown considerable attention on the physical impact of climate change like heat related stress. On the other hand female respondents have shown considerable attention to the psychological impact by the climate change. From a pragmatic perspective, the findings from this research will assists the policy makers to understand more about the perceived awareness on the climate change issues of the young citizens which ultimately assist them to inaugurate new initiatives to confront the challenges of climate changes. This research is among the pioneer study on the issue of the perceived awareness in regards to climate change in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences. PMID:24999143

  9. Economic impacts of climate change on tuna fisheries in Fiji Islands and Kiribati

    OpenAIRE

    2000-01-01

    This paper discusses the possible economic consequences of a change in the tuna fisheries in the Pacific Ocean resulting from climate change. On the background of Lehodey's (2000) study of potential changes in the tuna fisheries, we survey possible economic impacts in terms of quantities and values and give examples of macroeconomic impacts. The two main effects of climate change on tuna fishing are likely to be a decline in the total stock and a migration of the stock westwards. This will le...

  10. Impact of climate change on electricity systems and markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandramowli, Shankar N.

    Climate change poses a serious threat to human welfare. There is now unequivocal scientific evidence that human actions are the primary cause of climate change. The principal climate forcing factor is the increasing accumulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) due to combustion of fossil fuels for transportation and electricity generation. Generation of electricity account for nearly one-third of the greenhouse (GHG) emissions globally (on a CO2-equivalent basis). Any kind of economy-wide mitigation or adaptation effort to climate change must have a prominent focus on the electric power sector. I have developed a capacity expansion model for the power sector called LP-CEM (Linear Programming based Capacity Expansion Model). LP-CEM incorporates both the long-term climate change effects and the state/regional-level macroeconomic trends. This modeling framework is demonstrated for the electric power system in the Northeast region of United States. Some of the methodological advances introduced in this research are: the use of high-resolution temperature projections in a power sector capacity expansion model; the incorporation of changes in sectoral composition of electricity demand over time; the incorporation of the effects of climate change and variability on both the demand and supply-side of power sector using parameters estimated in the literature; and an inter-model coupling link with a macroeconomic model to account for price elasticity of demand and other effects on the broader macro-economy. LP-CEM-type models can be of use to state/regional level policymakers to plan for future mitigation and adaptation measures for the electric power sector. From the simulation runs, it is shown that scenarios with climate change effects and with high economic growth rates have resulted in higher capacity addition, optimal supply costs, wholesale/retail prices and total ratepayers' costs. LP-CEM is also adapted to model the implications of the proposed Clean Power Plan

  11. Climate change has limited impact on soil-mantled landsliding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Robert; Hales, Tristram; Mudd, Simon; Grieve, Stuart

    2015-04-01

    Projected increases in future storminess, associated with anthropogenically-driven climate change, are expected to produce an increase in landslide frequency and hazards. This prediction relies on an implicit and poorly tested assumption, that landslide frequency is limited by the effectiveness of landslide triggers (pore-pressure events determined by the intensity and duration of storms). Using an unprecedented field dataset of hillslope soil depths and ages (attained through radiocarbon dating) from the Southern Appalachian Mountains (USA), we show that this assumption is not valid in this landscape. Instead, landslide frequency is limited by rates of soil production and transport processes, which prepare sites for future landsliding. By simulating the evolution of Appalachian hillslopes, we demonstrate that unless climate change can drive an increase in soil production and transport rates, an increase in future storminess will have little effect on long-term landslide frequency, while individual storms will trigger fewer and smaller landslides.

  12. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua

    2015-01-01

    The combination of a warming Earth and an increasing population will likely strain the world's food systems in the coming decades. Experts involved with the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) focus on quantifying the changes through time. AgMIP, a program begun in 2010, involves about 800 climate scientists, economists, nutritionists, information technology specialists, and crop and livestock experts. In mid-September 2015, the Aspen Global Change Institute convened an AgMIP workshop to draft plans and protocols for assessing global- and regional-scale modeling of crops, livestock, economics, and nutrition across major agricultural regions worldwide. The goal of this Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments (CGRA) project is to characterize climate effects on large- and small-scale farming systems.

  13. Impact of climate change on larch budmoth cyclic outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyengar, Sudharsana V.; Balakrishnan, Janaki; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-06-01

    Periodic outbreaks of the larch budmoth Zeiraphera diniana population (and the massive forest defoliation they engender) have been recorded in the Alps over the centuries and are known for their remarkable regularity. But these have been conspicuously absent since 1981. On the other hand, budmoth outbreaks have been historically unknown in the larches of the Carpathian Tatra mountains. To resolve this puzzle, we propose here a model which includes the influence of climate and explains both the 8–9 year periodicity in the budmoth cycle and the variations from this, as well as the absence of cycles. We successfully capture the observed trend of relative frequencies of outbreaks, reproducing the dominant periodicities seen. We contend that the apparent collapse of the cycle in 1981 is due to changing climatic conditions following a tipping point and propose the recurrence of the cycle with a changed periodicity of 40 years – the next outbreak could occur in 2021. Our model also predicts longer cycles.

  14. Regional Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Resources Sustainability in Peninsular Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    K.A. Mogaji; H. S. Lim; Abdullah, K.

    2013-01-01

    Projection of climate for the 2020s and 2080s from an ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) run under A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios are used for regional modeling of climate change impacts on groundwater resources sustainability in Peninsular Malaysia. Few studies that have modeled climate change impacts on groundwater resources used the physically-based surface-subsurface flow model. In this paper, the suite of GCM outputs were modeled for the impact studies via integrative approach i...

  15. Impact of climate change on the stability of underground cavities. Status of knowledge. Investigation report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After having described the impact of global warming on climate parameters (possible climate evolution, impact on temperatures and precipitations in France) and presented underground cavities in France (nature and localisation, expected instability), this report discusses the impact of climate change on underground waters: impact on water cycle, on underground water level variation, and on the power of dissolution by underground waters. Then, it more particularly addresses the impact of water on underground cavity stability: impact of water on the behaviour of underground works, examples (iron mines, water sheet rising, quarry collapsing, and so on, in France, Belgium and USA), development of natural cavities. It finally outlines the perspectives, knowledge gaps, and required researches

  16. Climate Change Impacts in the State of Delaware

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snyder, C.

    2011-12-01

    The State of Delaware is currently completing its first statewide climate impacts and vulnerability assessment that will provide the foundation for a new statewide adaptation planning process. The assessment focuses on both the observed impacts and the projected impacts on five main sectors: public health and safety; infrastructure and water; industry, agriculture, and forestry; tourism and recreation; and wildlife, plants, and natural ecosystems. Examples of key impacts to the State include loss of wetlands from sea level rise and public health impacts from increased tropospheric ozone and heatwaves. The assessment is a result of collaboration across state agencies, universities, local governments, and non-governmental organizations. We discuss several challenges in translating national and regional research to locally-specific and locally-meaningful impacts necessary for the policy process, adaptation planning, and public outreach. We identify information and research gaps that continue to slow progress at the local and state level. There are lessons learned on how to best engage with policymakers and be relevant and useful for policy planning. Lastly, we give examples of successes in diverse collaborations, public communication of the results, and early policy actions resulting from the findings.

  17. Global climate change impact on built heritage and cultural landscapes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sabbioni, C.; Cassar, M.; Brimblecombe, P.; Tidblad, J.; Kozlowski, R.; Drdácký, Miloš; Saiz-Jimenez, C.; Grontoft, T.; Wainwright, I.; Ariňo, X.

    The Netherlands : Taylor & Francis/Balkema, 2006 - (Schweiger, H.), s. 395-401 ISBN 0-415-40822-9. [International conference on Heritage, weathering and conservation 2006. Madrid (ES), 21.06.2006-24.06.2006] Grant ostatní: evropská komise(XE) SSPI-CT-2003-501837 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20710524 Keywords : natural environment * cultural landscapes * climate change Subject RIV: AL - Art, Architecture, Cultural Heritage

  18. Complex systems approach to fire dynamics and climate change impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pueyo, S.

    2012-04-01

    I present some recent advances in complex systems theory as a contribution to understanding fire regimes and forecasting their response to a changing climate, qualitatively and quantitatively. In many regions of the world, fire sizes have been found to follow, approximately, a power-law frequency distribution. As noted by several authors, this distribution also arises in the "forest fire" model used by physicists to study mechanisms that give rise to scale invariance (the power law is a scale-invariant distribution). However, this model does not give and does not pretend to give a realistic description of fire dynamics. For example, it gives no role to weather and climate. Pueyo (2007) developed a variant of the "forest fire" model that is also simple but attempts to be more realistic. It also results into a power law, but the parameters of this distribution change through time as a function of weather and climate. Pueyo (2007) observed similar patterns of response to weather in data from boreal forest fires, and used the fitted response functions to forecast fire size distributions in a possible climate change scenario, including the upper extreme of the distribution. For some parameter values, the model in Pueyo (2007) displays a qualitatively different behavior, consisting of simple percolation. In this case, fire is virtually absent, but megafires sweep through the ecosystem a soon as environmental forcings exceed a critical threshold. Evidence gathered by Pueyo et al. (2010) suggests that this is realistic for tropical rainforests (specifically, well-conserved upland rainforests). Some climate models suggest that major tropical rainforest regions are going to become hotter and drier if climate change goes ahead unchecked, which could cause such abrupt shifts. Not all fire regimes are well described by this model. Using data from a tropical savanna region, Pueyo et al. (2010) found that the dynamics in this area do not match its assumptions, even though fire

  19. Hydrogen from nuclear energy and the impact on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The two major candidates for hydrogen production include nuclear power and other renewable energy sources. However, hydrogen produced by steam reforming of natural gas offers little advantage in total cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over hybrid internal combustion engine (ICE) technology. Only nuclear power offers the possibility of cutting GHG emissions significantly and to economically provide electricity for traditional applications and by producing hydrogen for its widespread use in the transportation sector. Using nuclear energy to produce hydrogen for transportation fuel, doubles or triples nuclear's capacity to reduce GHG emissions. An analysis at the Atomic Energy of Canada shows that a combination of hydrogen fuel and nuclear energy can stabilize GHG emissions and climate change for a wide range of the latest scenarios presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The technology for replacing hydrocarbon fuels with non-polluting hydrogen exists with nuclear power, electrolysis and fuel cells, using electric power grids for distribution. It was emphasized that a move toward total emissions-free transportation will be a move towards solving the negative effects of climate change. This paper illustrated the trends between global economic and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Low carbon dioxide emission energy alternatives were discussed along with the sources of hydrogen and the full cycle assessment results in reduced emissions. It was shown that deploying 20 CANDU NPPs (of 690 MW (e) net each) would fuel 13 million vehicles with the effect of levelling of carbon dioxide emissions from transportation between 2020 to 2030. 13 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs

  20. Adapting to Health Impacts of Climate Change in the Department of Defense.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chrétien, Jean-Paul

    2016-01-01

    The Department of Defense (DoD) recognizes climate change as a threat to its mission and recently issued policy to implement climate change adaptation measures. However, the DoD has not conducted a comprehensive assessment of health-related climate change effects. To catalyze the needed assessment-a first step toward a comprehensive DoD climate change adaptation plan for health-this article discusses the DoD relevance of 3 selected climate change impacts: heat injuries, vector-borne diseases, and extreme weather that could lead to natural disasters. The author uses these examples to propose a comprehensive approach to planning for health-related climate change impacts in the DoD. PMID:27081888

  1. The Impact of Changing Climate on Ammonia Emissions from Agriculture and the Associated Climate Forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, D. S.; Riddick, S. N.; Hess, P. G. M.

    2015-12-01

    Agriculture is the largest anthropogenic source of ammonia (NH3) on a global scale with major contributions from the application of synthetic fertilizer and manure from livestock. While strict controls are placed on the emissions of many industrial pollutants, NH3 concentrations are expected to increase this century. In addition to future expansion of agricultural activities that could lead to greater NH3 emissions, NH3 emissions are affected by changes in temperature and precipitation. Here we use a newly developed agricultural N pathways model running in a global terrestrial model (Community Land Model v4.0) to estimate future NH3 emissions from manure and synthetic fertilizer application, and the impact of changing climate on these emissions and other N pathways (runoff, denitrification, etc.). We include future increases in the application of manure and synthetic fertilizer that are consistent with a middle-of-the-road projection of population growth and per capita caloric intake. Combined with atmospheric forcing that follows RCP8.5, NH3 emissions increase by about 50% and 90% between years 2010 and 2100 from synthetic fertilizer and manure, respectively. Roughly 25% of this increase can be attributed to the changing climate, mainly increased global temperatures over the 21st century. We show associated changes in ammonium nitrate and ammonium sulfate aerosol concentrations and radiative forcings, the results of a set of additional simulations using the Community Atmosphere Model v5.0 and an offline radiative transfer scheme. This work suggests that projections of global NH3 concentrations need to take changes in climate into account.

  2. Climate change and health in the United States of America: impacts, adaptations, and research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After a description of the various impacts of climate change on human health, this report describes and comments the impacts of climate change on health in the USA: impacts of heat waves, of air quality degradation, of extreme climate events, of climate change on infectious diseases and allergies, regional impacts of climate change. In a second part, it describes the strategies of adaptation to the 'climate change and health' issue in the USA: mitigation and adaptation to climate change, adaptation challenges, insufficiently prepared public health system, adaptation to heat waves, adaptation to air quality degradation, adaptation to extreme climate events, adaptation to food- and water-based diseases and to vector-based diseases, examples of proactive adaptation. The last part describes the organisation of research on 'climate change and health' in the USA: nowadays and in the future, role of federal agencies, priority research axes. The 'United States Global Change Research Program' is presented in appendix, as well as the most important research centres (mostly in universities)

  3. Hydrogeochemical modeling of large fluvial basins: impact of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The chemical weathering of continental surfaces represents the one of carbon sinks at the Earth's surface which regulates the climate through feedback mechanism. The weathering intensity is controlled by climate but also by lithology, vegetal cover, hydrology and presence of smectites and acids in soils. In this work, a study at global scale on grid cells highlighted that a CO2 concentration increase in the atmosphere would involve a decrease of evapotranspiration due to stomatal progressive closure, and a rise of soil acidity related to enhanced bio-spheric productivity. These changes would promote the silicates chemical weathering and as a result, would lead to CO2 consumption increase by 3% for 100 ppmv of CO2 concentration rise in the atmosphere. Then, the study on the one of the most important catchments located in arctic environment, the Mackenzie basin (Canada), showed the high sensitivity of chemical weathering to sulfuric acid production. Indeed, the Mackenzie mean CO2 consumption has decreased by 56%, taking account the pyrite presence in the catchment. In addition, the mean CO2 consumption of this basin could rise by 53% between today climate and a climatic scenario predicted for the end of century. (author)

  4. Climate change impacts on Chalk groundwater resources in eastern England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiscock, K.; Sandhu, C.; Conway, D.

    2004-05-01

    Climate change is expected to cause higher summer temperatures, less summer rainfall and more evapotranspiration in eastern England during this century, thereby increasing the stress on the underlying Chalk aquifer. This study, funded by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, investigates how future scenarios of climate change will influence groundwater availability in this major regional aquifer in terms of groundwater levels and river baseflow quantities. To examine these scenarios, a two-layer regional groundwater model was constructed with Visual MODFLOW for the Wensum and Nar river catchments in northern East Anglia. The UKCIP02 database for the `2020s High' and `2050s High and Low' gas emission scenarios was used to define selected future climate conditions. Historic recharge (1981-90) to the model is calculated separately, using the FAO approved method incorporating dominant land cover (crop type) and soil moisture content. Future recharge to the model is estimated by perturbing historic rainfall and evapotranspiration with scaling factors relating average monthly simulated future and baseline (1961-90) meteorological parameters. The model results predict an overall decrease in recharge for all three scenarios, with a maximum decrease in October of 62% and 91%, for both the 2020s High and 2050s High scenarios, respectively. The future drier summer periods are likely to cause a delay in the onset of recharge by a month, due to a corresponding overall increase in the evapotranspiration for all scenarios. Faced with these conditions, water companies are planning for less reliable groundwater resources within an overall risk-based approach to managing future water supply and demand.

  5. Impact of climate change in Switzerland on socioeconomic snow indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmucki, Edgar; Marty, Christoph; Fierz, Charles; Weingartner, Rolf; Lehning, Michael

    2015-11-01

    Snow is a key element for many socioeconomic activities in mountainous regions. Due to the sensitivity of the snow cover to variations of temperature and precipitation, major changes caused by climate change are expected to happen. We analyze the evolution of some key snow indices under future climatic conditions. Ten downscaled and postprocessed climate scenarios from the ENSEMBLES database have been used to feed the physics-based snow model SNOWPACK. The projected snow cover has been calculated for 11 stations representing the diverse climates found in Switzerland. For the first time, such a setup is used to reveal changes in frequently applied snow indices and their implications on various socioeconomic sectors. Toward the end of the twenty-first century, a continuous snow cover is likely only guaranteed at high elevations above 2000 m a.s.l., whereas at mid elevations (1000-1700 m a.s.l.), roughly 50 % of all winters might be characterized by an ephemeral snow cover. Low elevations (below 500 m a.s.l.) are projected to experience only 2 days with snowfall per year and show the strongest relative reductions in mean winter snow depth of around 90 %. The range of the mean relative reductions of the snow indices is dominated by uncertainties from different GCM-RCM projections and amounts to approximately 30 %. Despite these uncertainties, all snow indices show a clear decrease in all scenario periods and the relative reductions increase toward lower elevations. These strong reductions can serve as a basis for policy makers in the fields of tourism, ecology, and hydropower.

  6. Assessment of impacts on ground water resources in Libya and vulnerability to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. P. Bindra

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper is designed to present the likely impact of climate change on groundwater resources in general and Libya in particular. State of the art reviews on recent research studies, and methodology to assess the impact of climate change on groundwater resources shows that climate change poses uncertainties to the supply and management of water resources. It outlines to demonstrate that how climate change impact assessment plays a vital role in forming the sensitive water balance rarely achieved in most area owing to precipitation variability’s and seasonality. It demonstrates that how large increases in water demand with very little recharge from precipitation have strained Libya’s groundwater resources resulting in declines of groundwater levels and its quality, especially on Libyan coastal areas where most of the agriculture, domestic and industrial activities are concentrated. Based on several research studies it demonstrates that how policy and decision making process using best practices for monitoring, analyzing and forecasting variation of climate is a way forward to cope with the impact of sea level rise, and combat some water supplies in vulnerable areas that are becoming unusable due to the penetration of salt water into coastal aquifers (Jifara Plain, Sirt, Jebal El-Akhdar.Finally, a number of Global Climate Models (GCM are reviewed to demonstrate that how better understanding of climate and climate change forecasting helps in devising appropriate adaptation strategies due to the impact of climate change.

  7. Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events; Impacts du changement climatique sur les evenements climatiques extremes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Planton, S.; Deque, M.; Chauvin, F. [Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques/groupe d' Etude de l' Atmosphere Meteorologique (CNRM/GAME), 31 - Toulouse (France); Terray, L. [Centre Europeen de Recherches Avancees en Calcul Scientifique, 31 - Toulouse (France)

    2008-09-15

    An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)

  8. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined and...... evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change and...... illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  9. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  10. Impact of climate change on the hydrology of High Mountain Asia

    OpenAIRE

    A. F. Lutz

    2016-01-01

    In Asia, water resources largely depend on water generated in the mountainous upstream parts of several large river basins and hundreds of millions of people depend on their waters downstream. The large-scale impacts of climate change for the water resources in High Mountain Asia are poorly understood, because the area has a complex climate, which is poorly monitored. Climate change may have large consequences for water availability, seasonal changes in runoff generation and the frequency and...

  11. General study and evaluation of potential impacts of climate change in Belgium

    OpenAIRE

    De Groof, Arnaud; Hecq, Walter; Coninx, Ingrid; Bachus, Kris; Dewals, Benjamin; Pirotton, Michel; El Kahloun, Mohsine; Meire, Patrick; De Smet, Lieven; De Sutter, Renaat

    2006-01-01

    Climate change is a hot topic in the media. There is the alarming message that climate change will strongly affect life on earth. But what consequences may be expected in Belgium? In cooperation with research partners from other Belgian universities, HIVA analysed the already-experienced and the expected impacts of climate change in Belgium. The research approach is interdisciplinairy, given that economic as well as social and ecological consequences have been taken into account. This stud...

  12. The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany, the UK and Ireland: a simulation study

    OpenAIRE

    Hamilton, Jacqueline; Tol, Richard,

    2007-01-01

    We downscale the results of a global tourism simulation model at a national resolution to a regional resolution. We use this to investigate the impact of climate change on the regions of Germany, Ireland and the UK. Because of climate change, tourists from all three countries would spend more holidays in the home country. In all three countries, climate change would first reduce the number of international arrivals - as Western European international tourist demand falls - but later increase ...

  13. Building world narratives for climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability analyses

    OpenAIRE

    Hallegatte, Stéphane; Valentin, Przyluski; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien

    2011-01-01

    International audience The impacts of climate change on human systems depend not only on the level of emissions but also on how inherently vulnerable these systems are to the changing climate. The large uncertainties over future development and structure of societies and economies mean that the assessment of climate change efects is complex. One way to deal with this complexity is by using scenario analysis that takes account of these socio-economic diferences. The challenge is to identify...

  14. Systems thinking methodology in researching the impacts of climate change on livestock industry

    OpenAIRE

    Nguyen, Quan; Nguyen, Nam Cao

    2013-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on livestock production are complex problems, existing in the rela-tionship among this sector and others sectors such as environmental, social, economic and political systems. The complexity and dynamic of these impacts cannot be solved simply in isolation with the linear approach. A system thinking methodology is introduced in this paper to understand the impacts of climate change on livestock production, and identify effective interventions strategies to addres...

  15. Reducing the Vulnerability of Albania's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change : Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options

    OpenAIRE

    Sutton, William R.; Srivastava, Jitendra P.; James E. Neumann; Strzępek, Kenneth M.; Droogers, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Changes in climate and their impact on agricultural systems and rural economies are already evident throughout Europe and Central Asia (ECA). Adaptation measures now in use in Albania, largely piecemeal efforts, will be insufficient to prevent impacts on agricultural production over the coming decades. There is growing interest at the country and development partner levels to have a better understanding of the exposure, sensitivities, and impacts of climate change at farm level, and to develo...

  16. Reducing the Vulnerability of Moldova's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change : Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options

    OpenAIRE

    Sutton, William R.; Srivastava, Jitendra P.; James E. Neumann; Iglesias, Ana; Boehlert, Brent B.

    2013-01-01

    Changes in climate and their impact on agricultural systems and rural economies are already evident throughout Europe and Central Asia (ECA). Adaptation measures now in use in Moldova, largely piecemeal efforts, will be insufficient to prevent impacts on agricultural production over the coming decades. There is growing interest at country and development partner levels to have a better understanding of the exposure, sensitivities, and impacts of climate change at farm level, and to develop an...

  17. The Impact of Climate Change on Major Agricultural Crops: Evidence from Punjab, Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Rehana Siddiqui; Ghulam Samad; Muhammad Nasir; Hafiz Hanzla Jalil

    2012-01-01

    This study is underscoring the impact of climate change on the major agricultural crops in Punjab, Pakistan. These crops are Wheat, Rice, Cotton and Sugarcane. This is the first study of its nature to study the impact of scientific information’s on the stages of development of each crop in order to assess the impact of climate change on each stage of the crops. This detail scientific information’s obtained from Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC), Islamabad, Cotton Research Institut...

  18. Estimating the impact of climate change on agricultural production: accounting for technology heterogeneity across countries

    OpenAIRE

    Exenberger, Andreas; Pondorfer, Andreas; Wolters, Maik H.

    2014-01-01

    We estimate the impact of climate change on agricultural production in a panel of 127 countries from 1961 to 2002. In contrast to the existing literature we account for cross-sectional dependence and technology heterogeneity. We find no significant impact of climate change on agricultural production in high income countries, but significant adverse effects in middle and low income countries. These adverse effects include a moderate negative impact of increases in temperature on agricultural o...

  19. A structural Ricardian valuation of climate change impacts on agriculture in Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book presents the economic analysis of the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Pakistan. Particular emphasis is laid on the magnitude of implicit adaptations in overall climate impact assessment and the analysis of selected adaptation options. Using a hedonic pricing model and a revealed choice approach, this study identifies the impacts of climate change on agricultural incomes, depicts the spatial patterns and seasonality of the impacts, and models the future adaptation behavior of farmers in the crop sector. A high sensitivity of farming in Pakistan to climate change is confirmed. With a changing climate and income in mind, farmers in Pakistan are more likely to choose rice, vegetables and maize, whereas they move away from wheat, sugarcane, cotton and fruits.

  20. A structural Ricardian valuation of climate change impacts on agriculture in Pakistan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahmed, Mirza Nomman

    2013-07-01

    This book presents the economic analysis of the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Pakistan. Particular emphasis is laid on the magnitude of implicit adaptations in overall climate impact assessment and the analysis of selected adaptation options. Using a hedonic pricing model and a revealed choice approach, this study identifies the impacts of climate change on agricultural incomes, depicts the spatial patterns and seasonality of the impacts, and models the future adaptation behavior of farmers in the crop sector. A high sensitivity of farming in Pakistan to climate change is confirmed. With a changing climate and income in mind, farmers in Pakistan are more likely to choose rice, vegetables and maize, whereas they move away from wheat, sugarcane, cotton and fruits.

  1. CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON WHEAT PRODUCTION IN KANSAS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua C. Howard

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the effect of climate change on wheat production in Kansas using annual time series data from 1949 to 2014. For the study, an error correction model is developed in which the price of wheat, the price of oats (substitute good, average annual temperature and average annual precipitation are used as explanatory variables with total output of wheat being the dependent variable. Time series properties of the data series are diagnosed using unit root and cointegration tests. The estimated results suggest that Kansas farmers are supply responsive to both wheat as well as its substitute (oat prices in the short run as well as in the long run. Climate variables; temperature has a positive effect on wheat output in the short run but an insignificant effect in the long run. Precipitation has a positive effect in the short run but a negative effect in the long run.

  2. The Positive Feedback Loop between the Impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Expansion and Relocation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bojana Bajželj

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and agriculture influence each other. The effects of climate change on agriculture seem to be predominantly negative, although studies show a large variation in impacts between crops and regions. To compensate for these effects, agriculture can either intensify or expand in area; both of these options increase greenhouse gas emissions. It is therefore likely that such negative effects will increase agriculture’s contribution to climate change, making this feedback a positive, self-reinforcing one. We have previously used a data-driven model to examine greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 related to agricultural scenarios of increasing demand for food. Here, we extend this approach by introducing the impacts of climate change on agricultural yields. We estimate the additional losses of natural habitats and increases in greenhouse gas emissions resulting from agricultural expansion and relocation induced by the negative effects of climate change. We studied two climate change scenarios and different assumptions about trade. These additional impacts caused by climate change are found to be relatively moderate compared to demand-driven impact, but still significant. They increase greenhouse gas emissions from land use change by an additional 8%–13%. Climate change tends to aggravate the effects of demand drivers in critical regions. Current emission scenarios are underestimates in that they do not include these feedback effects.

  3. Climate Change Impact On Mekong Delta of Vietnam in recent years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, L. T. X., III

    2015-12-01

    In recent years, the climate change signal increase globally. Abnormal changes of weather tends increasingly detrimental to human life, such as natural disasters occur with increasing level of more severe. Climate change is one the biggest challenges, and is a potential threat to humans. The impact of climate change increases the number and extent of the disaster fierce exists as typhoons, floods, droughts ... Global warming and sea level rise increases the area of flooding, saline intrusion and erosion in the delta region may cause farmers to lose the opportunity to produce, source of life their only. Impact of climate change on people in the community, but poor farmers in the developing countries like our country, women are the most severe consequences In this section, we summarize changes in climate on the territory of Vietnam, especially in Mekong Delta evaluate causes and its relationship to changes in global climate and region. Along with the analysis of characteristics of climate changes over time and through space to help the evolution of the standard deviation (average deviation from the standard of the period from 1971 to 2015) may indicate that the characteristic gas scenes took place related to global climate change ... Vietnam's territory stretches over approximately 15 latitude, the terrain is very complex, located in the interior full of tropical Southeast Asia. Vietnam climate strongly influenced by the Asian monsoon, monsoon and Northern Hemisphere especially the ENSO activity in the equatorial region and the Pacific Ocean. Climate Vietnam abundant and diversified, with strong ties to the region and globally.

  4. [Evolution of the climate change concept and its impact in the public health of Peru].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez Zavaleta, Carlos A

    2016-03-01

    The term "climate change" is not a new concept but its impact on public health is under constant review. We know that climate has already changed and will continue to change for centuries with the rise in average global temperature, and the associated rise in sea level. This fact makes mitigation efforts relevant only in the very long term and for generations of humans whose parents have not yet been born. When we talk about public health in the context of climate change, we are talking about adaptation. In the present, countries that are currently the most affected by climate change are precisely countries like Peru, without a significant carbon footprint at the global level but that are highly sensitive to the effects of climate. Without reliable climate projections, the health impact of climate change can be uncertain and complicated. Nevertheless, at the local level, every district can identify its vulnerabilities and define priorities to protect the health of its population. There are, and it can also be developed, environmental health indicators that can help monitor how well we are adapting and how prepared we are for changes in the climate. Adaptation to climate change implies improving living conditions, enhancing epidemiological surveillance systems and extending access to healthcare. The fight against the effects of climate change in public health is a fight against poverty and inequality, and that is nothing new in Peru. PMID:27384632

  5. The impact of climate change on the BRICS economies: The case of insurance demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranger, N.; Surminski, S.

    2012-04-01

    Session ERE5.1 Climate change impact on economical and industrial activities The impact of climate change on the BRICS economies: The case of insurance demand. Over the past decade, growth in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) economies has been a key driver of global economic growth. Current forecasts suggest that these markets will continue to be areas of significant growth for a large number of industries. We consider how climate change may influence these trends in the period to 2030, a time horizon that is long in terms of strategic planning in industry, but relatively short for climate change analysis, where the impacts are predicted to be most significant beyond around 2050. Based on current evidence, we expect climate change to affect the BRICS economies in four main ways: 1. The impact of physical climatic changes on the productivity of climate-sensitive economic activity, the local environment, human health and wellbeing, and damages from extreme weather. 2. Changing patterns of investment in climate risk management and adaptation 3. Changing patterns of investments in areas affected by greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy, 4. The impacts of the above globally, including on international trade, growth, investment, policy, migration and commodity prices, and their impacts on the BRICS. We review the evidence on the impacts of climate change in the BRICS and then apply this to one particular industry sector: non-life insurance. We propose five potential pathways through which climate change could influence insurance demand: economic growth; willingness to pay for insurance; public policy and regulation; the insurability of natural catastrophe risks; and new opportunities associated with adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation. We conclude that, with the exception of public policy and regulation, the influence of climate change on insurance demand to 2030 is likely to be small when compared with the expected growth due to rising

  6. Economic impacts of climate change on cities: A survey of the existing literature

    OpenAIRE

    Stasinopoulos, Georgios

    2009-01-01

    This paper attempts a survey of the existing literature on the direct market impacts of climate change on urban centers. In the first chapter, the argument for the importance of cities as case studies for research on the impacts of climate change is established using current population data and future projections. In the second chapter, a brief overview of how we can go from the global level to the regional level, when we consider the impacts of climate change, is given. In the third chapter,...

  7. Changing climate, changing forests: the impacts of climate change on forests of the northeastern United States and eastern Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rustad, Lindsey; Campbell, John; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Huntington, Thomas; Lambert, Kathy Fallon; Mohan, Jacqueline; Rodenhouse, Nicholas

    2012-01-01

    Decades of study on climatic change and its direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems provide important insights for forest science, management, and policy. A synthesis of recent research from the northeastern United States and eastern Canada shows that the climate of the region has become warmer and wetter over the past 100 years and that there are more extreme precipitation events. Greater change is projected in the future. The amount of projected future change depends on the emissions scenarios used. Tree species composition of northeast forests has shifted slowly in response to climate for thousands of years. However, current human-accelerated climate change is much more rapid and it is unclear how forests will respond to large changes in suitable habitat. Projections indicate significant declines in suitable habitat for spruce-fir forests and expansion of suitable habitat for oak-dominated forests. Productivity gains that might result from extended growing seasons and carbon dioxide and nitrogen fertilization may be offset by productivity losses associated with the disruption of species assemblages and concurrent stresses associated with potential increases in atmospheric deposition of pollutants, forest fragmentation, and nuisance species. Investigations of links to water and nutrient cycling suggest that changes in evapotranspiration, soil respiration, and mineralization rates could result in significant alterations of key ecosystem processes. Climate change affects the distribution and abundance of many wildlife species in the region through changes in habitat, food availability, thermal tolerances, species interactions such as competition, and susceptibility to parasites and disease. Birds are the most studied northeastern taxa. Twenty-seven of the 38 bird species for which we have adequate long-term records have expanded their ranges predominantly in a northward direction. There is some evidence to suggest that novel species, including pests and

  8. Global maps of climate change impacts on the favourability for human habitation and economic activity

    OpenAIRE

    Füssel, Hans-Martin

    2010-01-01

    This paper analyzes the statistical relationship between climatic factors and the global distribution of population and economic activity. Building on this analysis, a new method is developed for assessing geographically explicit impacts of climate change on the suitability of regions for human habitation and economic activity. This method combines information about differences in the conditional distributions of population density and economic activity across climate categories with climate ...

  9. Impact of Climate Change on the Storm Water System in Al Hillah City-Iraq

    OpenAIRE

    Al Janabi, Firas

    2015-01-01

    The impact of climate change is increasingly important to the design of urban water infrastructure like stormwater systems, sewage systems and drinking water systems. Growing evidence indicates that the water sector will not only be affected by climate change, but it will reflect and deliver many of its impacts through floods, droughts, or extreme rainfall events. Water resources will change in both quantity and quality, and the infrastructure of stormwater and wastewater facilities may face ...

  10. Possible Future Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Drought Events in the Weihe River Basin, China

    OpenAIRE

    Fei Yuan; Mingwei Ma; Liliang Ren; Hongren Shen; Yue Li; Shanhu Jiang; Xiaoli Yang; Chongxu Zhao; Hao Kong

    2016-01-01

    Quantitative evaluation of future climate change impacts on hydrological drought characteristics is one of important measures for implementing sustainable water resources management and effective disaster mitigation in drought-prone regions under the changing environment. In this study, a modeling system for projecting the potential future climate change impacts on hydrological droughts in the Weihe River basin (WRB) in North China is presented. This system consists of a large-scale hydrologi...

  11. Quantifying the climate impacts of albedo changes due to biofuel production: a comparison with biogeochemical effects

    OpenAIRE

    Caiazzo, Fabio; Malina, Robert; Staples, Mark Douglas; Wolfe, Philip James; Yim, Hung Lam Steve; Barrett, Steven

    2014-01-01

    Lifecycle analysis is a tool widely used to evaluate the climate impact of greenhouse gas emissions attributable to the production and use of biofuels. In this paper we employ an augmented lifecycle framework that includes climate impacts from changes in surface albedo due to land use change. We consider eleven land-use change scenarios for the cultivation of biomass for middle distillate fuel production, and compare our results to previous estimates of lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions for ...

  12. Impacts and adaptive capacity as drivers for prioritizing agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Schlickenrieder, Jeremy; Quiroga Gomez, Sonia; Diz, Agustin; Iglesias Picazo, Ana

    2011-01-01

    In the face of likely climate change impacts policy makers at different spatial scales need access to assessment tools that enable informed policy instruments to be designed. Recent scientific advances have facilitated the development of improved climate projections, but it remains to be seen whether these are translated into effective adaptation strategies. This paper uses existing databases on climate impacts on European agriculture and combines them with an assessment of adaptive capacity ...

  13. Determining Canadian water utility preparedness for the impacts of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brettle Meagan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available General warming and extreme weather events associated with climate change are expected to negatively impact water utilities. Water utilities will need to adapt to continue providing safe drinking water and wastewater services. In 2012, the Canadian Water and Wastewater Association (CWWA conducted a survey of 53 water utility officials to understand the expert perceptions of climate change risks and preparedness of Canadian utilities for current and future impacts. Results indicated that there is low awareness among water utility officials (30% of thepossible impacts of climate change on water utilities, and more than half have not conducted climate change vulnerability assessments (65% and do not have operational plans to address climate change impacts (56%. Officials from smaller utilities, which are considered to be more vulnerable to impacts, were of those less aware of these risks and reported taking fewer preparedness activities. Efforts to prepare water utilities for climate change impacts in Canada would benefit from education of utility officials about possible climate change risks, encouraging assessments of vulnerabilities, and increased training with new adaptation tools and resources.

  14. SUSTAINABILITY OF MOUNTAIN SOURCES OF WATER FOR THE NAVAJO NATION UNDER THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

    Science.gov (United States)

    This model may assist Navajo communities to implement strategies that prepare the communities for impacts of climate change. Other tribes may be encouraged to develop similar hydrologic models to help understand the hydrologic responses of climate change in their area and h...

  15. The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany, the UK and Ireland: a simulation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hamilton, Jacqueline; Tol, Richard

    2007-01-01

    We downscale the results of a global tourism simulation model at a national resolution to a regional resolution. We use this to investigate the impact of climate change on the regions of Germany, Ireland and the UK. Because of climate change, tourists from all three countries would spend more holi

  16. Adapting to and Coping with the Threat and Impacts of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reser, Joseph P.; Swim, Janet K.

    2011-01-01

    This article addresses the nature and challenge of adaptation in the context of global climate change. The complexity of "climate change" as threat, environmental stressor, risk domain, and impacting process with dramatic environmental and human consequences requires a synthesis of perspectives and models from diverse areas of psychology to…

  17. Impact of Climate Change Effects on Contamination of Cereal Grains with Deoxynivalenol

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Fels-Klerx, H J; van Asselt, E D; Madsen, M S;

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to aggravate feed and food safety problems of crops; however, quantitative estimates are scarce. This study aimed to estimate impacts of climate change effects on deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat and maize grown in the Netherlands by 2040. Quantitative modelling was...... applied, considering both direct effects of changing climate on toxin contamination and indirect effects via shifts in crop phenology. Climate change projections for the IPCC A1B emission scenario were used for the scenario period 2031-2050 relative to the baseline period of 1975-1994. Climatic data from......, which was significant for one climate model combination, but not significant for the other one. In general, results disagree with previous reported expectations of increased feed and food safety hazards under climate change. This study illustrated the relevance of using quantitative models to estimate...

  18. The use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for impact assessment of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenov, M. A.

    2009-04-01

    The IPCC 4th Assessment Report was based on large datasets of projections of future climate produced by eighteen modelling groups worldwide who performed a set of coordinated climate experiments in which numerous global climate models (GCMs) have been run for a common set of experiments and various emission scenarios. These datasets are freely available form the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (www.ipcc-data.org) and can be used by the research community to assess the impact of changing climate on various systems of interest including impacts on agricultural crops and natural ecosystems, biodiversity and plant diseases. Multi-model ensembles (MME) emphasize the uncertainty in climate predictions resulting from structural differences in the global climate model design as well as uncertainty to variations of initial conditions or model parameters. This paper describes a methodology based on a stochastic weather generator for linking MME of predictions from GCMs with process-based impact models to assess impacts of climate change on biological or ecological systems. The latest version of the LARS-WG weather generator is described which allows seamlessly generating daily site-specific climate scenarios worldwide by utilising local daily weather and MME from GCMs. Examples of impacts on wheat in Europe, based on MME, are discussed, including changes in severity of drought and heat stress around flowering.

  19. Long term impact of climate change on the metropolitan coast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In its first part, this report describes global physical phenomena: air and sea temperature rise, modification of the tempest regime, precipitations, ocean stratification. Then, it describes some more specific physical effects of climate change: average sea level rise, sea currents (global, regional and local oceanic circulation), and wave modification on the coast. It describes the effects of various media due to sea submersion, erosion and accretion, ocean acidification, salinization increase of underground coastal waters, modification of the composition of biotic communities, biological invasions, and appearance of new toxicities for mankind

  20. Climate change and the UK house building sector: perceptions, impacts and adaptive capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper explores how climate change could affect the UK house-building sector, focusing on the question of how companies can adapt to changing climatic conditions. It presents the results of in-depth interviews in five house-building companies in the UK. We start from the assumption that climate change is only one driver among many, including technological innovation, shifting consumer expectations and changing regulation, that the industry faces. This approach draws on insights that are well established in the management and innovation literatures, but have often been neglected in studies of climate change. We report research about the perceptions of house builders about future impacts of climate change, potential adaptation measures that may be open to them and their ability to carry out these measures. The paper draws conclusions about the challenges that climate change presents to the UK house building industry. (author)

  1. Health Impacts of Climate Change in the Solomon Islands: An Assessment and Adaptation Action Plan

    OpenAIRE

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne

    2014-01-01

    The Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable to the environmental changes wrought by global climate change such as sea level rise, more frequent and intense extreme weather events and increasing temperatures. The potential biophysical changes likely to affect these countries have been identified and it is important that consideration be given to the implications of these changes on the health of their citizens. The potential health impacts of climatic changes on the population of ...

  2. Climate Change Science, Impacts, Solutions - A Senior Science Course for Post-Secondary Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, J. M.; Little, L. J.; Barnes, C. C.; Mirmasoudi, S.; Mansouri Kouhestani, F.; Reiger, C.; Rodriguez Bueno, R. A.

    2015-12-01

    The role of humanity in warming the global climate is well defined. The research community has predicted and documented many of the early impacts of climate change. The research literature has extensive assessments of future impacts on environment, cities, agriculture, human health, infrastructure, social and political changes, and the risks of military conflict. Society is facing massive infrastructure redevelopment, protection and possible abandonment due to increasing weather extremes. We have reached the point where science consensus is obvious and the population over much of the developed and developing world understands the urgency - humanity is changing the climate. The challenge is helping people help themselves. People understand there are consequences - they want to know how to minimize those consequences, and how to adapt to minimize the impacts. There is a dire need for a senior level course that addresses the key issues across disciplines. This course should cover a range of topics across many disciplinary boundaries, including: an introduction to the science, politics, health and well-being challenges of climate change; likely changes to personal and community lifestyles; consumption of energy and other resources. Population migration due to climate change impacts is a critical topic. Most important, the course must address the solutions to climate change. The population is demanding the power to address this massive challenge. This course will provide a multimedia curriculum on the impacts and solutions to our climate change dilemma.

  3. Climate Impacts on Human Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Climate Change Impacts Human Health Impacts Human Health Climate Impacts on Human Health Climate Impacts on Alaska On This Page Temperature-Related ... very old) are especially vulnerable to health impacts. Climate Change Affects Human Health In 2016, the U.S. ...

  4. Impacts of climate change on mangrove ecosystems: A region by region overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Raymond D.; Friess, Daniel A.; Day, Richard H.; MacKenzie, Richard A.

    2016-01-01

    Inter-related and spatially variable climate change factors including sea level rise, increased storminess, altered precipitation regime and increasing temperature are impacting mangroves at regional scales. This review highlights extreme regional variation in climate change threats and impacts, and how these factors impact the structure of mangrove communities, their biodiversity and geomorphological setting. All these factors interplay to determine spatially variable resiliency to climate change impacts, and because mangroves are varied in type and geographical location, these systems are good models for understanding such interactions at different scales. Sea level rise is likely to influence mangroves in all regions although local impacts are likely to be more varied. Changes in the frequency and intensity of storminess are likely to have a greater impact on N and Central America, Asia, Australia, and East Africa than West Africa and S. America. This review also highlights the numerous geographical knowledge gaps of climate change impacts, with some regions particularly understudied (e.g., Africa and the Middle East). While there has been a recent drive to address these knowledge gaps especially in South America and Asia, further research is required to allow researchers to tease apart the processes that influence both vulnerability and resilience to climate change. A more globally representative view of mangroves would allow us to better understand the importance of mangrove type and landscape setting in determining system resiliency to future climate change.

  5. Evaluation of economic impact of climatic change on agro-forestry systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vittorio Gallerani

    Full Text Available Climate change has a strong influence on agro-forestry systems. Present estimations evisage that changes in climate patterns and extreme events connected to climate change will have greater impacts in the future. This paper seeks to illustrate the articulation of the problems concerning the economic evaluation of climate change, with particularly attention to open problems and future lines of research. Research on this topic, though using methods and approaches consolidated in the disciplines of resource economics and evaluation, still have several open problems, particularly in the field of multidisciplinary studies of the man-environmental relations, policy evaluation and development of decision support systems for decision makers.

  6. Impacts of Future Climate Change on California Perennial Crop Yields: Model Projections with Climate and Crop Uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lobell, D; Field, C; Cahill, K; Bonfils, C

    2006-01-10

    Most research on the agricultural impacts of climate change has focused on the major annual crops, yet perennial cropping systems are less adaptable and thus potentially more susceptible to damage. Improved assessments of yield responses to future climate are needed to prioritize adaptation strategies in the many regions where perennial crops are economically and culturally important. These impact assessments, in turn, must rely on climate and crop models that contain often poorly defined uncertainties. We evaluated the impact of climate change on six major perennial crops in California: wine grapes, almonds, table grapes, oranges, walnuts, and avocados. Outputs from multiple climate models were used to evaluate climate uncertainty, while multiple statistical crop models, derived by resampling historical databases, were used to address crop response uncertainties. We find that, despite these uncertainties, climate change in California is very likely to put downward pressure on yields of almonds, walnuts, avocados, and table grapes by 2050. Without CO{sub 2} fertilization or adaptation measures, projected losses range from 0 to >40% depending on the crop and the trajectory of climate change. Climate change uncertainty generally had a larger impact on projections than crop model uncertainty, although the latter was substantial for several crops. Opportunities for expansion into cooler regions are identified, but this adaptation would require substantial investments and may be limited by non-climatic constraints. Given the long time scales for growth and production of orchards and vineyards ({approx}30 years), climate change should be an important factor in selecting perennial varieties and deciding whether and where perennials should be planted.

  7. Limitations and pitfalls of climate change impact analysis on urban rainfall extremes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, P.; Olsson, J.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten;

    Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due...... to anthropogenic climate change. Current practices have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. Climate change may well be the driver that ensures that changes in urban drainage paradigms are...

  8. Health impacts of climate change and ozone depletion: an ecoepidemiologic modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martens, W J

    1998-02-01

    Anthropogenic climate changes and stratospheric ozone depletion affect human health in various ways. Current mainstream epidemiologic research methods do not appear well adapted to analyze these health impacts, which involve complex systems influenced by human interventions or simpler processes that will take place in the future. This paper discusses a different paradigm for studying the health impacts of global environmental changes and focuses on the development of integrated ecoepidemiologic models using three examples--the effect of climate change on vector-borne diseases, the effect of climate change on thermal-related mortality, and the effects of increasing ultraviolet levels because of ozone depletion on the rates of skin cancer. PMID:9539017

  9. Measuring the economic impact of climate change on major South African field crops: a Ricardian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gbetibouo, G. A.; Hassan, R. M.

    2005-07-01

    This study employed a Ricardian model to measure the impact of climate change on South Africa's field crops and analysed potential future impacts of further changes in the climate. A regression of farm net revenue on climate, soil and other socio-economic variables was conducted to capture farmer-adapted responses to climate variations. The analysis was based on agricultural data for seven field crops (maize, wheat, sorghum, sugarcane, groundnut, sunflower and soybean), climate and edaphic data across 300 districts in South Africa. Results indicate that production of field crops was sensitive to marginal changes in temperature as compared to changes in precipitation. Temperature rise positively affects net revenue whereas the effect of reduction in rainfall is negative. The study also highlights the importance of season and location in dealing with climate change showing that the spatial distribution of climate change impact and consequently needed adaptations will not be uniform across the different agro-ecological regions of South Africa. Results of simulations of climate change scenarios indicate many impacts that would induce (or require) very distinct shifts in farming practices and patterns in different regions. Those include major shifts in crop calendars and growing seasons, switching between crops to the possibility of complete disappearance of some field crops from some region.

  10. Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields are urgently needed. Here we provide an assessment of near-term climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. Towards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models and two crop models (SARRA-H and APSIM) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area. In broad agreement with the full CMIP5 ensemble, our subset of bias-corrected climate models projects a mean warming of +2.8 °C in the decades of 2031–2060 compared to a baseline of 1961–1990 and a robust change in rainfall in West Africa with less rain in the Western part of the Sahel (Senegal, South-West Mali) and more rain in Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, South-West Niger). Projected rainfall deficits are concentrated in early monsoon season in the Western part of the Sahel while positive rainfall changes are found in late monsoon season all over the Sahel, suggesting a shift in the seasonality of the monsoon. In response to such climate change, but without accounting for direct crop responses to CO2, mean crop yield decreases by about 16–20% and year-to-year variability increases in the Western part of the Sahel, while the eastern domain sees much milder impacts. Such differences in climate and impacts projections between the Western and Eastern parts of the Sahel are highly consistent across the climate and crop models used in this study. We investigate the robustness of impacts for different choices of cultivars, nutrient treatments, and crop responses to CO2. Adverse impacts on mean yield and yield variability are lowest for modern cultivars, as their short and nearly fixed growth cycle appears to be more resilient to the seasonality shift of the monsoon, thus suggesting shorter season varieties could be considered a

  11. Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sultan, B.; Guan, K.; Kouressy, M.; Biasutti, M.; Piani, C.; Hammer, G. L.; McLean, G.; Lobell, D. B.

    2014-10-01

    West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields are urgently needed. Here we provide an assessment of near-term climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. Towards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models and two crop models (SARRA-H and APSIM) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area. In broad agreement with the full CMIP5 ensemble, our subset of bias-corrected climate models projects a mean warming of +2.8 °C in the decades of 2031-2060 compared to a baseline of 1961-1990 and a robust change in rainfall in West Africa with less rain in the Western part of the Sahel (Senegal, South-West Mali) and more rain in Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, South-West Niger). Projected rainfall deficits are concentrated in early monsoon season in the Western part of the Sahel while positive rainfall changes are found in late monsoon season all over the Sahel, suggesting a shift in the seasonality of the monsoon. In response to such climate change, but without accounting for direct crop responses to CO2, mean crop yield decreases by about 16-20% and year-to-year variability increases in the Western part of the Sahel, while the eastern domain sees much milder impacts. Such differences in climate and impacts projections between the Western and Eastern parts of the Sahel are highly consistent across the climate and crop models used in this study. We investigate the robustness of impacts for different choices of cultivars, nutrient treatments, and crop responses to CO2. Adverse impacts on mean yield and yield variability are lowest for modern cultivars, as their short and nearly fixed growth cycle appears to be more resilient to the seasonality shift of the monsoon, thus suggesting shorter season varieties could be considered a potential

  12. Climate change impacts on water barriers and possibilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Peter

    water rights, conflicts between water managers, the absence of risk-aversion strategies in times of drought, the lack of a unified irrigation systems, and the lack of control and regulation of irrigation water explained by the absence of dams. Climate change is expected to result in a 40 % decrease in...... precipitation. The change and variability is most serious in the northernmost valleys that receive less than 200 mm/yr. This is strengthened by the northwards decrease in the importance of mountains. Precipitation in the mountains, glaciers and snowfields are the main source of irrigation water – not the...... lowland precipitation. As a result annual discharge is up to 50 times lower compared to the southernmost valleys. This did not impede the expansion of fruit plantations explained by the expansion of irrigation canals, and the adoption of drip irrigation. More serious are land tenure barriers, the lack of...

  13. Climate change and its impacts on crop production: A case study in Khotang district of Nepal

    OpenAIRE

    Dhakal, Kabindra

    2014-01-01

    This research was carried out to study climate change and its impacts on major crops production in Khotang district of Nepal. The effect of climate variables on crops yield and farmers` respond to climate change in the last eight to ten years were studied and analyzed. Monthly precipitation data in Aiselukharka, Kuruleghat, Khotangbajar and Diktel; and monthly minimum and maximum air temperatures data in Okhaldhunga, Chainpur East and Udayapur Gadhi available from the Department of Hydrology ...

  14. Physical impacts of climate change on landslide occurrence and related 8 adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Huggel, Christian; Khabarov, Nikolay; Korup, Oliver; Obersteiner, Michael

    2012-01-01

    This chapter provides a review on current understanding of different effects of climate change on landslides and debris flows in cold, temperate, and tropical mountains. We start with observed impacts of climate change on shallow landslides and debris flows, followed by discussions of rock-slope failures, and the physical processes that make climate an important cause and trigger of landslides. While an increase in extreme precipitation has been observed in many regions worldwide over the pas...

  15. Impacts of Climate Change on Public Health in India: Future Research Directions

    OpenAIRE

    Bush, Kathleen F.; Luber, George; Kotha, S Rani; R. S. Dhaliwal; Kapil, Vikas; Pascual, Mercedes; Brown, Daniel G.; Frumkin, Howard; R.C. Dhiman; Hess, Jeremy; Wilson, Mark L; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Eisenberg, Joseph; Kaur, Tanvir; Rood, Richard

    2011-01-01

    Background Climate change and associated increases in climate variability will likely further exacerbate global health disparities. More research is needed, particularly in developing countries, to accurately predict the anticipated impacts and inform effective interventions. Objectives Building on the information presented at the 2009 Joint Indo–U.S. Workshop on Climate Change and Health in Goa, India, we reviewed relevant literature and data, addressed gaps in knowledge, and identified prio...

  16. Data base of climatic change simulations for the impact studies. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Data used for the study of the climatic change impact on the environment and the society come from climate models and are affected by uncertainties. It is necessary to quantify the resulting errors in the models. The data base provides a comparison of simulations of climatic change in France. The final report presents the project methodology. Three projects using the distributed simulations are also presented. (A.L.B.)

  17. The impact of climate change on rice yield in Bangladesh: a time series analysis

    OpenAIRE

    IFTEKHAR UDDIN AHMED CHOWDHURY; MOHAMMAD ABUL EARSHAD KHAN

    2015-01-01

    Rice is the staple food of about 158 million people of Bangladesh, but the increasing climate change vulnerabilities and global warming are severely reducing the yield of various rice crops and may threaten the food security in the country. Therefore, this study is undertaken to examine the potential impact of climate change on the yield of three different rice crops (namely, Aus, Aman and Boro) in Bangladesh. A multiple regression analysis using OLS method is employed to assess the climate-c...

  18. Climate change in Europe. 1. Impact on terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity. A review*

    OpenAIRE

    Feehan, Jane; Harley, Mike; Van Minnen, Jell

    2009-01-01

    Ecosystems have an essential role in providing services to humankind such as nutrient cycling, pest control, pollination, quality of life, and hydrological, atmospheric and climatic regulation. About 60% of the world's known ecosystems are currently used unsustainably. In Europe, the richness and abundance of biodiversity is undergoing significant decline, partly due to climate change. This article outlines the impacts of climate change on biodiversity by showing both observed and projected c...

  19. Climate Change Impacts on Water Supply and Demand in Rheraya Watershed (Morocco), with Potential Adaptation Strategies

    OpenAIRE

    Rochdane, Saloua; Reichert, Barbara; Messouli, Mohammed; Babqiqi, Abdelaziz; Khebiza, Mohammed Yacoubi

    2012-01-01

    Rheraya watershed already suffers from the impacts of climate variability and will be further affected by climate change. Severe water shortages and extremely fragile ecological conditions necessitate careful attention to water resources management. The aim of this study is to analyze Rheraya’s future water situation under different scenarios of socio-economic development and climate change until 2100. The Water Evaluation and Planning System model (WEAP) has been applied to estimate the curr...

  20. Viewpoints on impacts of climate change on soil quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilly, Oliver; Pfeiffer, Eva-Maria; Trasar-Cepeda, Carmen; Nannipieri, Paolo

    2010-05-01

    Climate projections indicate a critical increase in temperature and modification of the precipitation pattern for the next century worldwide (IPCC 2007). Higher temperature increase are expected in polar than in temperate and tropical regions. In addition, studies on the response of microbial metabolism to temperature changes showed lower sensitivity at higher temperature level as analyzed by Q10 values (Kirschbaum 1995). The temperature response as indicated by the Q10 value refers to physiological response including enzyme configuration and substrate availability. For soils from an undisturbed forest site in eastern Amazonia, Knorr et al. (2005) observed even that the apparent pool turnover times are insensitive to temperature and received evidence that non-labile soil organic carbon was more sensitive to temperature than labile soil organic carbon. Linking the climate projections and the findings related to Q10 values suggests that the microbial activity may be stimulated to a higher degree at northern latitudes than at lower latitudes. But few studies address the role of temperature changes on soil organic matter pool and microbial biomass and activities although temperature changes may be important (Dilly et al. 2003). On top, the thawing of permafrost soil (24 % of exposed land in the Northern Hemisphere) represents a further threat since erosion processes will occur and captured gases may evolve to the atmosphere. Finally, dryness and drying-rewetting cycling that are affected by climate change are regulating soil organic carbon turnover (Mamilov and Dilly 2001). The lecture will summarize basic findings and positive feedback on our climate system and also address the concept of ‘soil energ-omics' including the interaction between respiration and microbial colonization and the respective metabolic quotient (Dilly 2006). Key words: Q10, Nitrogen deposition, Permafrost, Carbon turnover, Microbial biomass, adjustment References Dilly, O., 2006. Evaluating

  1. The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jerez, Sonia; Tobin, Isabelle; Vautard, Robert; Montávez, Juan Pedro; López-Romero, Jose María; Thais, Françoise; Bartok, Blanka; Christensen, Ole Bøssing; Colette, Augustin; Déqué, Michel; Nikulin, Grigory; Kotlarski, Sven; van Meijgaard, Erik; Teichmann, Claas; Wild, Martin

    2015-12-01

    Ambitious climate change mitigation plans call for a significant increase in the use of renewables, which could, however, make the supply system more vulnerable to climate variability and changes. Here we evaluate climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic (PV) power in Europe using the recent EURO-CORDEX ensemble of high-resolution climate projections together with a PV power production model and assuming a well-developed European PV power fleet. Results indicate that the alteration of solar PV supply by the end of this century compared with the estimations made under current climate conditions should be in the range (-14%+2%), with the largest decreases in Northern countries. Temporal stability of power generation does not appear as strongly affected in future climate scenarios either, even showing a slight positive trend in Southern countries. Therefore, despite small decreases in production expected in some parts of Europe, climate change is unlikely to threaten the European PV sector.

  2. Climate and Change

    OpenAIRE

    Roger S. Pulwarty

    2011-01-01

    A presentation about the basics of climate change - the science, the impacts, and the consequences. The focus is on water and the Caribbean in particular but the information is general. It includes information about climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation.

  3. Changing climate, changing frames

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► We show development of flood policy frames in context of climate change attention. ► Rising attention on climate change influences traditional flood policy framing. ► The new framing employs global-scale scientific climate change knowledge. ► With declining attention, framing disregards climate change, using local knowledge. ► We conclude that frames function as sensemaking devices selectively using knowledge. -- Abstract: Water management and particularly flood defence have a long history of collective action in low-lying countries like the Netherlands. The uncertain but potentially severe impacts of the recent climate change issue (e.g. sea level rise, extreme river discharges, salinisation) amplify the wicked and controversial character of flood safety policy issues. Policy proposals in this area generally involve drastic infrastructural works and long-term investments. They face the difficult challenge of framing problems and solutions in a publicly acceptable manner in ever changing circumstances. In this paper, we analyse and compare (1) how three key policy proposals publicly frame the flood safety issue, (2) the knowledge referred to in the framing and (3) how these frames are rhetorically connected or disconnected as statements in a long-term conversation. We find that (1) framings of policy proposals differ in the way they depict the importance of climate change, the relevant timeframe and the appropriate governance mode; (2) knowledge is selectively mobilised to underpin the different frames and (3) the frames about these proposals position themselves against the background of the previous proposals through rhetorical connections and disconnections. Finally, we discuss how this analysis hints at the importance of processes of powering and puzzling that lead to particular framings towards the public at different historical junctures

  4. Climate change and forestry in Turkey: impacts and adaptation measures

    OpenAIRE

    Tüfekçioğlu, Aydın; Tüfekçioğlu, Mustafa

    2013-01-01

    Turkey has various climate types in different regions. A Mediterranean climate prevails in Turkey’s Mediterranean and Western Anatolian regions, a temperate climate with high precipitation in every season along the Black Sea coast, a continental climate in the inland regions and a semi-arid climate in Central and South-eastern Anatolia. Most precipitation occurs in the winter months. Total annual rainfall is least in the low-lying areas of eastern Anatolia (220mm), and highest along the easte...

  5. Projecting Poverty at the Household Scale to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Poor People

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallegatte, S.; Rozenberg, J.

    2015-12-01

    This paper quantifies the potential impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030 and 2050, in 92 countries covering 90% of the developing world population. It accounts for the deep uncertainties that characterize future socio-economic evolutions and the lack of data regarding the condition and livelihood of poor people. It also considers many impacts of climate change, another source of uncertainty. We use a micro-simulation model based on household surveys and explore a wide range of uncertainties on future structural change, productivity growth or demographic changes. This results, for each country, in the creation of several hundred scenarios for future income growth and income distribution. We then explore the resulting space of possible futures and use scenario discovery techniques to identify the main drivers of inequalities and poverty reduction. We find that redistribution and structural change are powerful drivers of poverty and inequality reduction, except in low-income countries. In the poorest countries in Africa, reducing poverty cannot rely on redistribution but requires low population growth and productivity growth in agriculture. Once we have explored the space of possible outcomes for poverty and inequalities, we choose two representative scenarios of the best and worst cases and model the impacts of climate change in each of these two scenarios. Climate change impacts are modeled through 4 channels. First, climate change has an impact on labor productivity growth for people who work outside because of higher temperatures. Second, climate change has an impact on human capital because of more severe stunting in some places. Third, climate change has an impact on physical capital via more frequent natural disasters. Fourth, climate change has an impact on consumption because of changes in food prices. Impacts are very heterogeneous across countries and are mostly concentrated in African and South-East Asian countries. For high radiative forcing (RCP8

  6. Vulnerability of freshwater fisheries and impacts of climate change in south Indian states economies

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sannadurgappa, D.; Abitha, R.; Sukumaran, S.

    The vulnerability of five states in India national economies to potential climate change impacts on their capture fisheries using an indicator-based approach were compared. The states: Karnataka, Tamilnadu, Andhrapradesh, Kerala and Maharashtra were...

  7. Human Health Impacts of and Public Health Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebi, K. L.

    2007-12-01

    Weather and climate are among the factors that determine the geographic range and incidence of several major causes of ill health, including undernutrition, diarrheal diseases and other conditions due to unsafe water and lack of basic sanitation, and malaria. The Human Health chapter in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that climate change has begun to negatively affect human health, and that projected climate change will increase the risks of climate-sensitive health outcomes, particularly in lower-income populations, predominantly within tropical/subtropical countries. Those at greatest risk include the urban poor, older adults, children, traditional societies, subsistence farmers, and coastal populations, particularly in low income countries. The cause-and-effect chain from climate change to changing patterns of health determinants and outcomes is complex and includes socioeconomic, institutional, and other factors. The severity of future impacts will be determined by changes in climate as well as by concurrent changes in nonclimatic factors and by the adaptation measures implemented to reduce negative impacts. Public health has a long history of effectively intervening to reduce risks to the health of individuals and communities. Lessons learned from more than 150 years of research and intervention can provide insights to guide the design and implementation of effective and efficient interventions to reduce the current and projected impacts of climate variability and change.

  8. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Northwest China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO Hong-Yan; LIU Cai-Hong; LI Yan-Chun; FANG Jian-Gang; LI Lin; LI Hong-Mei; ZHENG Guang-Fen; DENG Zhen-Yong; DONG An-Xiang; GUO Jun-Qin; ZHANG Cun-Jie; SUN Lan-Dong; ZHANG Xu-Dong; LIN Jing-Jing; WANG You-Heng; FANG Feng; MA Peng-Li

    2014-01-01

    Climate change resulted in changes in crop growth duration and planting structure, northward movement of planting region, and more severe plant diseases and insect pests in Northwest China. It caused earlier seeding for spring crop, later seeding for autumn crop, accelerated crop growth, and reduced mortality for winter crop. To adapt to climate change, measures such as optimization of agricultural arrangement, adjustment of planting structure, expansion of thermophilic crops, and development of water-saving agriculture have been taken. Damaging consequences of imbalance between grassland and livestock were enhanced. The deterioration trend of grassland was intensified; both grass quantity and quality declined. With overgrazing, proportions of inferior grass, weeds and poisonous weeds increased in plateau pastoral areas. Returning farmland to grazing, returning grazing to grassland, fence enclosure and artificial grassland construction have been implemented to restore the grassland vegetation, to increase the grassland coverage, to reasonably control the livestock carrying capacity, to prevent overgrazing, to keep balance between grassland and livestock, and to develop the ecological animal husbandry. In Northwest China, because the amount of regional water resources had an overall decreasing trend, there was a continuous expansion in the regional land desertification, and soil erosion was very serious. A series of measures, such as development of artificial precipitation (snow), water resources control, regional water diversion, water storage project and so on, were used effectively to respond to water deficit. It had played a certain role in controlling soil erosion by natural forest protection and returning farmland to forest and grassland. In the early 21st century, noticeable achievements had been made in prevention and control of desertification in Northwest China. The regional ecological environment has been improved obviously, and the desertification trend

  9. The importance of glacier and forest change in hydrological climate-impact studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Köplin

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Changes in land cover alter the water balance components of a catchment, due to strong interactions between soils, vegetation and the atmosphere. Therefore, hydrological climate impact studies should also integrate scenarios of associated land cover change. To reflect two severe climate-induced changes in land cover, we applied scenarios of glacier retreat and forest cover increase that were derived from the temperature signals of the climate scenarios used in this study. The climate scenarios consist of ten regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project; their respective temperature and precipitation deltas are used to run a hydrological model. The relative importance of each of the three types of scenarios (climate, glacier, forest is assessed through an analysis of variance (ANOVA. Altogether, 15 mountainous catchments in Switzerland are analysed, exhibiting different degrees of glaciation during the control period (0–51% and different degrees of forest cover increase under scenarios of change (12–55% of the catchment area. The results show that even an extreme change in forest cover is negligible with respect to changes in runoff, but it is crucial as soon as evaporation or soil moisture is concerned. For the latter two variables, the relative impact of forest change is proportional to the magnitude of its change. For changes that concern 35% of the catchment area or more, the effect of forest change on summer evapotranspiration is equally or even more important than the climate signal. For catchment with a glaciation of 10% or more in the control period, the glacier retreat significantly determines summer and annual runoff. The most important source of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact studies is the climate scenario, though, and it is highly recommended to apply an ensemble of climate scenarios in impact studies. The results presented here are valid for the climatic region they were tested for, i.e. a humid, mid

  10. Perceptions on climate change and its impact on livelihoods in Hwange district, Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Nhemachena

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated perceptions of rural communities on climate change and its impacts on livelihoods. The research was conducted in the semi-arid Hwange district in Matebelel and North province of Zimbabwe. The perceptions were compared with empirical evidence from climatic studies on trends on temperature and rainfall, and impacts on livelihoods in the country and region. The findings from the current study are generally in agreement with those of other studies that indicate changes in the climate, especially in terms of rainfall. This largely applies to short-term periods; however, for long-term periods it is difficult to accurately relate rural community perceptions to changes in rainfall over time. Despite perceived changes and impacts of climate change on local livelihood activities, mainly agriculture, there are multiple stressors that the communities face which also affect their livelihoods. Further evidence-based research is required to disentangle climate change impacts on livelihoods, including livelihood impacts arising from interactions of climate and non-climatic factors.

  11. Modelling the recent historical impacts of atmospheric CO2 and climate change on Mediterranean vegetation

    OpenAIRE

    Osborne, C. P.; MITCHELL, P. L.; Sheehy, J.E.; Woodward, F.I.

    2000-01-01

    During the past century, annual mean temperature has increased by 0.75 degrees C and precipitation has shown marked variation throughout the Mediterranean basin. These historical climate changes may have had significant, but presently undefined, impacts on the productivity and structure of sclerophyllous shrubland, an important vegetation type in the region. We used a vegetation model for this functional type to examine climate change impacts, and their interaction with the concurrent histori...

  12. Planning for climate change impacts on hydropower in the Far North

    OpenAIRE

    Cherry, Jessica E.; Knapp, Corrie; Trainor, Sarah; Ray, Andrea J.; Tedesche, Molly; Walker, Susan

    2016-01-01

    Unlike much of the contiguous United States, new hydropower development continues in the Far North, where climate models project precipitation will likely increase over the next century. Regional complexities in the Arctic and sub-Arctic, such as glacier recession and permafrost thaw, however, introduce uncertainties about the hydrologic responses to climate change that impact water resource management. This work reviews hydroclimate changes in the Far North and their impacts on hydropower; i...

  13. Isolating the impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow

    OpenAIRE

    Chawla, I.; P. P. Mujumdar

    2015-01-01

    Quantifying the isolated and integrated impacts of land use (LU) and climate change on streamflow is challenging as well as crucial to optimally manage water resources in river basins. This paper presents a simple hydrologic modeling-based approach to segregate the impacts of land use and climate change on the streamflow of a river basin. The upper Ganga basin (UGB) in India is selected as the case study to carry out the analysis. Streamflow in the river basin is modeled usi...

  14. Climate change impacts on rainfall extremes and urban drainage: state-of-the-art review

    OpenAIRE

    Willems, Patrick; Olsson, Jonas; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Beecham, Simon; Pathirana, Assela; Bülow Gregersen, Ida; Madsen, Henrik; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van

    2013-01-01

    Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic climate change. Current practises have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact re...

  15. Health Consequence Scales for Use in Health Impact Assessments of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Helen Brown; Jeffery Spickett

    2014-01-01

    While health impact assessment (HIA) has typically been applied to projects, plans or policies, it has significant potential with regard to strategic considerations of major health issues facing society such as climate change. Given the complexity of climate change, assessing health impacts presents new challenges that may require different approaches compared to traditional applications of HIA. This research focuses on the development of health consequence scales suited to assessing and comp...

  16. Landfill cap models under simulated climate change precipitation::Impacts of cracks and root growth

    OpenAIRE

    Sinnathamby, Gowthaman; Phillips, Debra; Sivakumar, Vinayagamoothy; Paksy, Andras

    2014-01-01

    Desiccation crack formation is a key process that needs to be understood in assessment of landfill cap performance under anticipated future climate change scenarios. The objectives of this study were to examine: (a) desiccation cracks and impacts that roots may have on their formation and resealing, and (b) their impacts on hydraulic conductivity under anticipated climate change precipitation scenarios. Visual observations, image analysis of thin sections and hydraulic conductivity tests were...

  17. The economic impact of climate change on food security in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Chuen Khee, Pek; Yet Mee, Lim; Chee Keong, Choong

    2011-01-01

    This study estimates the economic impact of climate change on food security in Malaysia. The contingent valuation technique is employed on 456 randomly selected households in the vicinities of Selangor Darul Ehsan. The study finds that climate change mitigation programmes to ensure food security are important. The public is willing to pay extra rice price in substitution of a rice subsidy reduction impact for the mitigation programmes. More specifically, the study ascertains that households o...

  18. Spatio-temporal impact of climate change on the groundwater system

    OpenAIRE

    J. Dams; Salvadore, E.; T. Van Daele; V. Ntegeka; Willems, P; Batelaan, O.

    2012-01-01

    Given the importance of groundwater for food production and drinking water supply, but also for the survival of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems (GWDTEs) it is essential to assess the impact of climate change on this freshwater resource. In this paper we study with high temporal and spatial resolution the impact of 28 climate change scenarios on the groundwater system of a lowland catchment in Belgium. Our results show for the scenario period 2070–2101 compared w...

  19. Climate Change Impacts on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage: a State-of-the-Art Review

    OpenAIRE

    Willems, Patrick; Olsson, Jonas; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Beecham, Simon; Pathirana, Assela; Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van

    2013-01-01

    Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic climate change. Current practises have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact re...

  20. Health Impacts of Climate Change in Vanuatu: An Assessment and Adaptation Action Plan

    OpenAIRE

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne; McIver, Lachlan

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is one of the greatest global challenges and Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable due to, among other factors, their geography, demography and level of economic development. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used as a basis for the consideration of the potential health impacts of changes in the climate on the population of Vanuatu, to assess the risks and propose a range of potential adaptive responses appropriate for Vanuatu. The HIA process involv...

  1. Detecting Climate Change and Its Impacts on Crop Yield in the Continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Y.; Cai, X.

    2012-12-01

    Climatic variables, temperature and precipitation in particular, play critical roles in crop growth. Changes in climate, i.e., the change of mean and/or variance in climatic time series have brought up concerns for agriculture. Detecting past climate change and its impact is essential to understand the causes on what have already occurred. This study uses a novel change point detection method, which is based on Bayesian local posterior density and Pettitt test to detect multiple change points in a given time series, and to classify change patterns (graduate and step change) based on the final posterior probability density. The detection method is then applied to the United States Historical Climate Network (USHCN) covering thousands of sites; the change patterns of precipitation, and maximum, average and minimum temperature in crop growing periods and growing years are examined in details. The impacts of the identified climate changes on the yield of grain corn in the US are assessed. A regression model with climate variables is developed to model crop yield responses to the climate since 1970. Through various testing scenarios, it is found that the impacts of climate change on corn yield vary by region (Figure 1), temperature component (minimum, maximum or average), time periods for the assessment (crop growing period or year), and irrigated and rainfed crops. The change in minimum temperature has the largest impact on the gross corn yield over the Continental U.S among those climate variables; warming of maximum temperature boosts the gross corn yield, while warming of average temperature and minimum temperature slows it. In the Midwest, precipitation change has much larger impact on rainfed than on irrigated corn, which shows an evidence of irrigation adaptation to climate change in the region. Figure 1 shows the estimated impact of minimum temperature change (mean monthly minimum daily temperature in the growing season) in the growing season during 1970-2010 on

  2. Possible impact of climate change on China's food production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the north, the yields of wheat and corn are sensitive to the mean temperature, in particular mean temperature in summer and autumn. Low temperature in these seasons frequently causes reduction of grain yield. It is calculated that with an annual mean of temperature increase 1 C, the growth period will be extended 10 days and the earliest frost in autumn will also be postponed; the total yield of crops will increase about 10 %. According to composite results of simulations, the mean temperature in the north would increase 1.5--2.0 C; therefore the yield may increase 10--20%. However, the change of precipitation has more uncertainty by simulation. It is projected that in summer and autumn the change of rainfall ranges from -2.5 to +8.1%. On the other hand, even precipitation increases could be offset by reducing of soil moisture due to increases in temperature and evaporation. Therefore, it is hard to judge what the impact would be on yields because of change of precipitation. It might have some negative impact. In the south, the temperature, in general, is sufficient for the growth of rice, though the increase of temperature would also have some favorable impact on the increase of rice yield. However, rice production is more sensitive to the change of precipitation, particularly in the summer. Since water resources are not sufficient in China, only 47% of the land is irrigated. It is calculated that when rainfall decreases 1%, the irrigated land will be reduced 1%, which implies the reduction of rice output by 7.5 million tons a year. The land without irrigation would be reduced even more. According to composite results, a 5% decrease in precipitation is not significant. However, taking into account the increase of temperature and evaporation, the total impact on rice land will certainly be negative and significant, a 10--20% reduction of rice yield would be expected

  3. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The indicators in this bulletin are part of a national set of environmental indicators designed to provide a profile of the state of Canada's environment and measure progress towards sustainable development. A review of potential impacts on Canada shows that such changes would have wide-ranging implications for its economic sectors, social well-being including human health, and ecological systems. This document looks at the natural state of greenhouse gases which help regulate the Earth's climate. Then it looks at human influence and what is being done about it. The document then examines some indicators: Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use; global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases; and global and Canadian temperature variations

  4. Climate change impact on the activities of Electricite de France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Water resource is of prime importance for a producer of electricity like Electricite de France. As a matter of fact, EDF manages about 75 % of the French surface waters through hydro electricity which represents about 13 % of its production. EDF also needs access to water for the cooling of its thermal power plants, especially nuclear power plants which represent between 75 and 80 % of its electric production. Climate change is then studied with much care in order to be able to predict its effects on the future water repartition in time and place. The paper presents the results of studies carried out on the French Loire and Rhone rivers, using different climate models, with the assumption of doubling CO2 in the atmosphere (which could happen during the second half of the century). Future river temperatures and flows have been quantified, showing in particular an increase of river flows in winter, and a rather large decrease in summer. These results will have to be taken into account for the future management of the power plants (some experience has already been drawn after the very hot 2003 summer), especially during dry periods when scarce waters will have to be shared between the various users (drinking water, irrigation, tourism, industries and hydroelectricity). (authors)

  5. Human impacts on terrestrial hydrology: climate change versus pumping and irrigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global climate change is altering terrestrial water and energy budgets, with subsequent impacts on surface and groundwater resources; recent studies have shown that local water management practices such as groundwater pumping and irrigation similarly alter terrestrial water and energy budgets over many agricultural regions, with potential feedbacks on weather and climate. Here we use a fully-integrated hydrologic model to directly compare effects of climate change and water management on terrestrial water and energy budgets of a representative agricultural watershed in the semi-arid Southern Great Plains, USA. At local scales, we find that the impacts of pumping and irrigation on latent heat flux, potential recharge and water table depth are similar in magnitude to the impacts of changing temperature and precipitation; however, the spatial distributions of climate and management impacts are substantially different. At the basin scale, the impacts on stream discharge and groundwater storage are remarkably similar. Notably, for the watershed and scenarios studied here, the changes in groundwater storage and stream discharge in response to a 2.5 °C temperature increase are nearly equivalent to those from groundwater-fed irrigation. Our results imply that many semi-arid basins worldwide that practice groundwater pumping and irrigation may already be experiencing similar impacts on surface water and groundwater resources to a warming climate. These results demonstrate that accurate assessment of climate change impacts and development of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies must account for local water management practices. (letter)

  6. A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity

    OpenAIRE

    Simon N. Gosling; Arnell, Nigel W.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water resources across 1339 watersheds. The Water Crowding Index (WCI) and the Water Stress Index (WSI) are used to calculate exposure to increases and decreases in global water scarcity due to climate change. 1.6 (WCI) and 2.4 (WSI) billion people are es...

  7. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century. 19 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

  8. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century

  9. The health impacts of climate change and variability in developing countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menne, B. [WHO European Centre for Environment and Health, Rome (Italy). Global Change and Health; Kunzil, N. [Institute for Social and Preventive Medicine University, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Basel and Keck School of Medicine; Bertollini, R. [WHO Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen (Denmark). Technical Support Div.

    2002-07-01

    Health is a focus reflecting the combined impacts of climate change on the physical environment, ecosystems, the economic environment and society. Long-term changes in the world's climate may affect many requisites of good health - sufficient food, safe and adequate drinking water and secure dwelling. The current large-scale social and environmental changes mean that we must assign a much higher priority to population health in the policy debate on climate change. Climate change will affect human health and wellbeing through a variety of mechanisms. Climate change can adversely impact on the availability of fresh water supply and the efficiency of local sewerage systems. It is also likely to affect food security. Cereal yields are expected to increase at high and mid latitudes but decrease at lower latitudes. Changes in food production are likely to significantly affect health in Africa. In addition, the distribution and seasonal transmission of several vector-borne infectious diseases (such as malaria and dengue) may be affected by climate change. Altered distribution of some vector species may be among the early signals of climate change. A change in the world climate could increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. The impacts on health of natural disasters are considerable - the number of people killed, injured or made homeless from such causes is increasingly alarming. The vulnerability of people living in risk-prone areas is an important contributor to disaster casualties and damage. An increase in heatwaves (and possibly air pollution) will be a problem in urban areas, where excess mortality and morbidity is currently observed during hot weather episodes. We can assume that climate change will affect the most vulnerable in developing countries. These might be socio-economic deprived populations, people who lack access to a health care system, technology and communication, as well as immuno compromised persons. The health community

  10. Climate Change: A Review of Its Health Impact and Percieved Awareness by the Young Citizens

    OpenAIRE

    Rahman, Muhammad Sabbir; Mohamad, Osman Bin; Zarim, Zainal bin Abu

    2014-01-01

    In recent time climate change and its impact on human health and awareness constitute a set of complex and serious consequences to be tackled by an individual country. Climate change is not merely an environmental issue, but also it is a threat that goes beyond national borders. The purpose of this study is to identify the awareness and the impact of climate change, perceived by the young citizens in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences. Based on a survey of 200 respondents from differe...

  11. Climate change: a primer

    OpenAIRE

    Khanna, Dr. Perminder; Aneja, Reenu

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Climate has inherent variability manifesting in gradual changes in temperature, precipitation and sea-level rise. The paper entitled “Climate Change: A Primer” attempts to analyse the policy response and adaptation to the need to address climate change at the international and domestic level both. Intense variations in climate would increase the risk of abrupt and non-linear changes in the ecosystem, impacting their function, biodiversity and productivity. The policy initiations and ...

  12. The impacts of climate change on the Finnish economy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuoppamaeki, P. [Research Inst. of the Finnish Economy, Helsinki (Finland)

    1996-12-31

    The purpose of the project was to evaluate the potential influence of global warming on the Finnish economy and well-being during the next 50 to 100 years. In order to achieve this goal a cost-benefit analysis was conducted which produced a quantitative estimate of the economic and partially non-economic effects of the climate change projected to happen in Finland. The analysis utilised the natural scientific evidence produced by other SILMU projects in partial sector models. Also a broader view of the phenomena and the possibilities for restricting greenhouse gas emissions was briefly discussed and surveyed. Two of the more important side-goals were to develop the methodology for country analysis and study the possibilities for adaptation

  13. Mapping climate change impact on vegetation and the associated uncertainties in the Euro-Mediterranean area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laanaia, Nabil; Calvet, Jean-Christophe; Carrer, Dominique; Séférian, Roland

    2016-04-01

    Crops, grasslands and forests in the Euro-Mediterranean area are already affected by the climate change impacts and will be even more in the future. The knowledge of the extent of these impacts will allow the implementation of adaptation strategies of agriculture and forestry to climate change. The aim of this study is to explore the potential implications of climate change and characterize significant future vegetation trends and their uncertainties. The ISBA (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere), land surface model is developed by Meteo-France for meteorological, hydrological and climatic applications. In this study, ISBA is forced by the atmospheric variables produced by different climate models. We use an ensemble of four climate models, following the RCP8.5 scenario, to drive the ISBA model. The simulations cover 114 year from 1986 to 2099. Two time horizons 2029-2058 (near future) and 2070-2099 (distant future) are compared to the 1988-2017 period. The ISBA model is used to provide several simulations of plant growth and carbon storage. Four vegetation types (rainfed straw cereals and grasslands, broadleaf and coniferous forests) are considered. The leaf area index simulations are used to determine phenology variables (leaf onset, leaf offset). A statistical analysis is used to quantify the impact of climate change and to show whether the future trends are significant or not. The uncertainties related to these trends are characterized. A spatial classification method is used to map the spatial variability of the impact of climate change.

  14. Three Connected Climate Education Interactives: Carbon Cycle, Earth System Energy Flows, and Climate Change Impacts/Adaptations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sussman, A.

    2015-12-01

    The Pacific Islands Climate Education Partnership (PCEP) serves the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Island (USAPI) Region. The international entities served by PCEP are the state of Hawai'i (USA); three Freely Associated States (the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Republic of Palau), and three Territories (Guam, Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa). Funded by NSF, the PCEP aims to educate the region's students and citizens in ways that exemplify modern science and indigenous environmental knowledge, address the urgency of climate change impacts, and focus on adaptation strategies that can increase resiliency with respect to climate change impacts. Unfortunately the vast majority of the science texts used in schools come from the US mainland and feature contexts that do not relate to the lives of Pacific island students. The curricular materials also tend to be older and to have very weak climate science content, especially with respect to tropical islands and climate change. In collaboration with public broadcast station WGBH, PCEP has developed three climate education interactives that sequentially provide an introduction to key climate change education concepts. The first in the series focuses on the global carbon cycle and connects increased atmospheric CO2 with rising global temperatures. The second analyzes Earth system energy flows to explain the key role of the increased greenhouse effect. The third focuses on four climate change impacts (higher temperatures, rising sea level, changes in precipitation, and ocean acidification), and adaptation strategies to increase resiliency of local ecosystems and human systems. While the interactives have a Pacific island visual and text perspective, they are broadly applicable for other education audiences. Learners can use the interactives to engage with the basic science concepts, and then apply the climate change impacts to their own contexts.

  15. UK adaptation strategy and technical measures: the impacts of climate change on buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper discusses the importance of climate change for the UK building stock and reviews the predictions of the United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme 2002 (UKCIP02) scenarios for the future climate that are of relevance to buildings and construction. The possible impacts of these changes on flooding, wind damage, driving rain impact, subsidence and the internal environment of buildings are reviewed and the steps that might be taken to mitigate these impacts discussed. The current response of regulators, standardisation bodies, building owners and the insurance industry to these impacts is examined, and it is shown that each body acts in different ways to different impacts. Some bodies, such as government departments responsible for building regulations and the insurance industry, are taking the possibility of climate change very seriously. However, the uncertainty of future climate predictions, especially as regards wind speed, means that it is not easy to incorporate these issues in formal legislation. The whole culture of standardisation, which is based on well-established data, such as mean climate data over the last 30 years, makes it difficult for British and European Standards, which underpin regulations, to react to the changing climate. (author)

  16. Impact of climate change on human infectious diseases: Empirical evidence and human adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xiaoxu; Lu, Yongmei; Zhou, Sen; Chen, Lifan; Xu, Bing

    2016-01-01

    Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather conditions and patterns of extreme weather events. It may lead to changes in health threat to human beings, multiplying existing health problems. This review examines the scientific evidences on the impact of climate change on human infectious diseases. It identifies research progress and gaps on how human society may respond to, adapt to, and prepare for the related changes. Based on a survey of related publications between 1990 and 2015, the terms used for literature selection reflect three aspects--the components of infectious diseases, climate variables, and selected infectious diseases. Humans' vulnerability to the potential health impacts by climate change is evident in literature. As an active agent, human beings may control the related health effects that may be effectively controlled through adopting proactive measures, including better understanding of the climate change patterns and of the compound disease-specific health effects, and effective allocation of technologies and resources to promote healthy lifestyles and public awareness. The following adaptation measures are recommended: 1) to go beyond empirical observations of the association between climate change and infectious diseases and develop more scientific explanations, 2) to improve the prediction of spatial-temporal process of climate change and the associated shifts in infectious diseases at various spatial and temporal scales, and 3) to establish locally effective early warning systems for the health effects of predicated climate change. PMID:26479830

  17. Elevational dependence of climate change impacts on water resources in an Alpine catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Fatichi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available An increasing interest is directed toward understanding impacts of climate change on water related sectors in a particularly vulnerable area such as the Alpine region. We present a distributed hydrological analysis at scale significant for water management for pristine, present-days, and projected future climate conditions. We used the upper Rhone basin (Switzerland as a test case for understanding anthropogenic impacts on water resources and flood risk in the Alpine area. The upper Rhone basin includes reservoirs, river diversions and irrigated areas offering the opportunity to study the interaction between climate change effects and hydraulic infrastructures. We downscale climate model realizations using a methodology that partially account for the uncertainty in climate change projections explicitly simulating stochastic variability of precipitation and air temperature. We show how climate change effects on streamflow propagate from high elevation headwater catchments to the river in the major valley. Changes in the natural hydrological regime imposed by the existing hydraulic infrastructure are likely larger than climate change signals expected by the middle of the 21th century in most of the river network. Despite a strong uncertainty induced by stochastic climate variability, we identified an elevational dependence of climate change impacts on streamflow with a severe reduction due to the missing contribution of water from ice melt at high-elevation and a dampened effect downstream. The presence of reservoirs and river diversions tends to decrease the uncertainty in future streamflow predictions that are conversely very large for highly glacierized catchments. Despite uncertainty, reduced ice cover and ice melt are likely to have significant implication for aquatic biodiversity and hydropower production. The impacts can emerge without any additional climate warming. A decrease of August-September discharge and an increase of hourly

  18. Impacts and adaptation of European crop production systems to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olesen, Jørgen E; Trnka, M; Kersebaum, K C;

    2011-01-01

    increased incidents of heat waves and droughts without possibilities for effectively shifting crop cultivation to other parts of the years. A wide range of adaptation options exists in most European regions to mitigate many of the negative impacts of climate change on crop production in Europe. However...... the: (1) main vulnerabilities of crops and cropping systems under present climate; (2) estimates of climate change impacts on the production of nine selected crops; (3) possible adaptation options as well as (4) adaptation observed so far. In addition we focused on the overall awareness and presence...... questionnaires show a surprisingly high proportion of negative expectations concerning the impacts of climate change on crops and crop production throughout Europe, even in the cool temperate northern European countries. The expected impacts, both positive and negative, are just as large in northern Europe as in...

  19. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathwa

  20. Impact of climate change and adaptation strategies on crop production in Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.; Spano, D.

    2012-04-01

    The vulnerability of agricultural to climate change is of particular interest to policy makers because the high social and economical importance of agriculture sector in Nigeria, which contributes approximately 40 percent to total GDP and support 70 percent of the population. It is necessary to investigate the potential climate change impacts in order to identify specific agricultural sectors and Agro-Ecological Zones that will be more vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions and implement and develop the most appropriate policies to cope with these changes. In this framework, this study aimed to assess the climate change impacts on Nigerian agricultural sector and to explore some of potential adaptation strategies for the most important crops in the food basket of the Country. The analysis was made using the DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5. Crop simulation models included in DSSAT are tools that allows to simulate physiological process of crop growth, development and production, by combining genetic crop characteristics and environmental (soil and weather) conditions. In this analysis, for each selected crop, the models included into DSSAT-CSM software were ran, after a calibration phase, to evaluate climate change impacts on crop production. The climate data used for the analysis are derived by the Regional Circulation Model COSMO-CLM, from 1971 to 2065, at 8 km of spatial resolution. The RCM model output were "perturbed" with 10 Global Climate Models in order to have a wide variety of possible climate projections for impact analysis. Multiple combinations of soils and climate conditions, crop management and varieties were considered for each Agro-Ecological Zone of Nigeria. The climate impact assessment was made by comparing the yield obtained with the climate data for the present period and the yield obtainable under future changed climate conditions. The models ran by keeping

  1. An exploratory study on occurrence and impact of climate change on agriculture in Tamil Nadu, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varadan, R. Jayakumara; Kumar, Pramod; Jha, Girish Kumar; Pal, Suresh; Singh, Rashmi

    2015-12-01

    This study has been undertaken to examine the occurrence of climate change in Tamil Nadu, the southernmost state of India and its impact on rainfall pattern which is a primary constraint for agricultural production. Among the five sample stations examined across the state, the minimum temperature has increased significantly in Coimbatore while the same has decreased significantly in Vellore whereas both minimum and maximum temperatures have increased significantly in Madurai since 1969 with climate change occurring between late 1980s and early 1990s. As a result, the south-west monsoon has been disturbed with August rainfall increasing with more dispersion while September rainfall decreasing with less dispersion. Thus, September, the peak rainfall month of south-west monsoon before climate change, has become the monsoon receding month after climate change. Though there has been no change in the trend of the north-east monsoon, the quantity of October and November rainfall has considerably increased with increased dispersion after climate change. On the whole, south-west monsoon has decreased with decreased dispersion while north-east monsoon has increased with increased dispersion. Consequently, the season window for south-west monsoon crops has shortened while the north-east monsoon crops are left to fend against flood risk during their initial stages. Further, the incoherence in warming, climate change and rainfall impact seen across the state necessitates devising different indigenous and institutional adaptation strategies for different regions to overcome the adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture.

  2. Climate change and impacts on human health in the Arctic: an international workshop on emerging threats and the response of Arctic communities to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Parkinson, Alan J.; Berner, James

    2009-01-01

    The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment(ACIA) was published in 2005 and was the firstcomprehensive scientific assessment of climatechange in the Arctic (1). Potential direct andindirect health impacts of climate change aredescribed in chapter 15 of this assessment.International Journal of Circumpolar Health 68:1 2009

  3. Ethiopia - A Country Study on the Economic Impacts of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2008-01-01

    It is now widely recognized that low-income countries in tropical and sub-tropical regions will be disproportionally affected by the adverse impacts of climate change. The combination of already fragile environments, dominance of climate-sensitive sectors in economic activity, and low autonomous adaptive capacity in these regions implies a high vulnerability to the harmful effects of globa...

  4. An empirical economic assessment of impacts of climate change on agriculture in Zambia

    OpenAIRE

    Jain, Suman

    2007-01-01

    This report assesses the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Zambia, using the Ricardian method. A multiple linear regression model with net revenue per hectare as response variable has been fitted with climate, hydrological, soil, and socioeconomic variables as explanatory variables. There is one main cropping season in Zambia, lasting from November to April. Crop product...

  5. Preliminary study on impact assessment of climate change on building risks induced by typhoons in Japan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nishijima, Kazuyoshi; Maruyama, Takashi; Graf, Mathias

    The present paper investigates possible impacts of the climate change on building risks caused by typhoons. The inputs to this investigation are: (1) outcomes from the numerical simulations with a Global Climate Model (GCM) developed under the framework of the KAKUSHIN program, (2) statistics...... and the future climate subject to the climate change, whereas the other inputs are utilized to develop a model for structural performance of buildings. Taking basis in these models, changes of building risks under the climate change are investigated. The result shows that the building risks slightly decrease...... on building damage in the event of Typhoon Songda, and (3) numerical simulation of the wind field induced by the typhoon Songda with the JMA Non- Hydrostatic Model (JMA-NHM). The first input is utilized to develop two sets of probabilistic typhoon models; i.e. corresponding to the current climate...

  6. Ozone depletion and climate change: impacts on UV radiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bais, A F; McKenzie, R L; Bernhard, G; Aucamp, P J; Ilyas, M; Madronich, S; Tourpali, K

    2015-01-01

    We assess the importance of factors that determine the intensity of UV radiation at the Earth's surface. Among these, atmospheric ozone, which absorbs UV radiation, is of considerable importance, but other constituents of the atmosphere, as well as certain consequences of climate change, can also be major influences. Further, we assess the variations of UV radiation observed in the past and present, and provide projections for the future. Of particular interest are methods to measure or estimate UV radiation at the Earth's surface. These are needed for scientific understanding and, when they are sufficiently sensitive, they can serve as monitors of the effectiveness of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments. Also assessed are several aspects of UV radiation related to biological effects and health. The implications for ozone and UV radiation from two types of geoengineering methods that have been proposed to combat climate change are also discussed. In addition to ozone effects, the UV changes in the last two decades, derived from measurements, have been influenced by changes in aerosols, clouds, surface reflectivity, and, possibly, by solar activity. The positive trends of UV radiation observed after the mid-1990s over northern mid-latitudes are mainly due to decreases in clouds and aerosols. Despite some indications from measurements at a few stations, no statistically significant decreases in UV-B radiation attributable to the beginning of the ozone recovery have yet been detected. Projections for erythemal irradiance (UVery) suggest the following changes by the end of the 21(st) century (2090-2100) relative to the present time (2010-2020): (1) Ozone recovery (due to decreasing ozone-depleting substances and increasing greenhouse gases) would cause decreases in UVery, which will be highest (up to 40%) over Antarctica. Decreases would be small (less than 10%) outside the southern Polar Regions. A possible decline of solar activity during the 21(st) century

  7. Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and input data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. This paper extends that analysis to explore a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from multiple climate and economic models are combined to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on agricultural yields, area, production, consumption, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar crops to 2050. We find that climate impacts on global average yields, area, production and consumption are similar across shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1, 2 and 3, as we implement them based on population, income and productivity drivers), except when changes in trade policies are included. Impacts on trade and prices are higher for SSP 3 than SSP 2, and higher for SSP 2 than for SSP 1. Climate impacts for all variables are similar across low to moderate emissions pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0), but increase for a higher emissions pathway (RCP 8.5). It is important to note that these global averages may hide regional variations. Projected reductions in agricultural yields due to climate change by 2050 are larger for some crops than those estimated for the past half century, but smaller than projected increases to 2050 due to rising demand and intrinsic productivity growth. Results illustrate the sensitivity of climate change impacts to differences in socioeconomic and emissions pathways. Yield impacts increase at high emissions levels and vary with changes in population, income and technology, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables. (paper)

  8. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on contributions on 120 French and foreign scientists representing different disciplines (mathematics, physics, mechanics, chemistry, biology, medicine, and so on), this report proposes an overview of the scientific knowledge and debate about climate change. It discusses the various indicators of climate evolution (temperatures, ice surfaces, sea level, biological indicators) and the various factors which may contribute to climate evolution (greenhouse gases, solar radiation). It also comments climate evolutions in the past as they can be investigated through some geological, thermal or geochemical indicators. Then, the authors describe and discuss the various climate mechanisms: solar activity, oceans, ice caps, greenhouse gases. In a third part, the authors discuss the different types of climate models which differ by the way they describe processes, and the current validation process for these models

  9. Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment in the United States and Implications for Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.

    2012-01-01

    As an integral part of the National Climate Assessment (NCA), technical assessment reports for 13 regions in the U.S. that describe the scientific rationale to support climate change impacts within the purview of these regions, and provide adaptation or mitigation measures in response to these impacts. These technical assessments focus on climate change impacts on sectors that are important environmental, biophysical, and social and economic aspects of sustainability within the U.S.: Climate change science, Ecosystems and biodiversity, Water resources, Human health, Energy supply and use, Water/energy/land use, Transportation, Urban/infrastructure/vulnerability, Agriculture, Impacts of climate change on tribal/indigenous and native lands and resources, Forestry, Land use/land cover change, Rural communities development, and Impacts on biogeochemical cycles, with implications for ecosystems and biodiversity. There is a critical and timely need for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies in response to climate change by the policy and decision making communities, to insure resiliency and sustainability of the built environment in the future.

  10. A New Framework for Spatio-temporal Climate Change Impact Assessment for Terrestrial Wildlife

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lankford-Bingle, Amber J.; Svancara, Leona K.; Vierling, Kerri

    2015-12-01

    We describe a first step framework for climate change species' impact assessments that produces spatially and temporally heterogeneous models of climate impacts. Case study results are provided for great gray owl ( Strix nebulosa) in Idaho as an example of framework application. This framework applies species-specific sensitivity weights to spatial and seasonal models of climate exposure to produce spatial and seasonal models of climate impact. We also evaluated three methods of calculating sensitivity by comparing spatial models of combined exposure and sensitivity. We found the methods used to calculated sensitivity showed little difference, except where sensitivity was directional (i.e., more sensitive to an increase in temperature than a decrease). This approach may assist in the development of State Wildlife Action Plans and other wildlife management plans in the face of potential future climate change.

  11. An Integrated Hydro-Economic Model for Economy-Wide Climate Change Impact Assessment for Zambia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, T.; Thurlow, J.; Diao, X.

    2008-12-01

    Zambia is a landlocked country in Southern Africa, with a total population of about 11 million and a total area of about 752 thousand square kilometers. Agriculture in the country depends heavily on rainfall as the majority of cultivated land is rain-fed. Significant rainfall variability has been a huge challenge for the country to keep a sustainable agricultural growth, which is an important condition for the country to meet the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. The situation is expected to become even more complex as climate change would impose additional impacts on rainwater availability and crop water requirements, among other changes. To understand the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production and national economy, a soil hydrology model and a crop water production model are developed to simulate actual crop water uses and yield losses under water stress which provide annual shocks for a recursive dynamic computational general equilibrium (CGE) model developed for Zambia. Observed meteorological data of the past three decades are used in the integrated hydro-economic model for climate variability impact analysis, and as baseline climatology for climate change impact assessment together with several GCM-based climate change scenarios that cover a broad range of climate projections. We found that climate variability can explain a significant portion of the annual variations of agricultural production and GDP of Zambia in the past. Hidden beneath climate variability, climate change is found to have modest impacts on agriculture and national economy of Zambia around 2025 but the impacts would be pronounced in the far future if appropriate adaptations are not implemented. Policy recommendations are provided based on scenario analysis.

  12. An Indicator of the Impact of Climatic Change on European Bird Populations

    OpenAIRE

    Gregory, R D; Willis, S G; Jiguet, F.; Voříše, P.; Klvaňová, A.; Van Strien, A; Huntley, B; Collingham, Y.C.; Couvet, D.; Green, R E

    2009-01-01

    Rapid climatic change poses a threat to global biodiversity. There is extensive evidence that recent climatic change has affected animal and plant populations, but no indicators exist that summarise impacts over many species and large areas. We use data on long-term population trends of European birds to develop such an indicator. We find a significant relationship between interspecific variation in population trend and the change in potential range extent between the late 20th and late 21st ...

  13. The impact of climate change on the global wine industry: Challenges & solutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michelle Renée Mozell

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the impact of climate change upon the global production of winegrapes and wine. It includes a review of the literature on the cause and effects of climate change, as well as illustrations of the specific challenges global warming may bring to the production of winegrapes and wine. More importantly, this paper provides some practical solutions that industry professionals can take to mitigate and adapt to the coming change in both vineyards and wineries.

  14. European Forests and Carbon Sequestration Services: An Economic Assessment of Climate Change Impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Ding, Helen; Nunes, Paulo A. L. D.; Sonja S. Teelucksingh

    2010-01-01

    This paper reports an original economic valuation of the impact of climate change on the provision of forest regulating services in Europe. To the authors' knowledge the current paper represents the first systematic attempt to estimate human well-being losses with respect to changes in biodiversity and forest regulating services that are directly driven by climate change. First, selected 34 European countries are grouped by their latitude intervals to capture the differentiated regional effec...

  15. Honey Production for Assessing the Impact of Climatic Changes on Vegetation

    OpenAIRE

    Schweitzer, P.; Nombré, I.; Boussim, JI.

    2013-01-01

    Burkina Faso is experiencing the effects of climate change in all sectors of its agriculture, including honey production. This study assessed the impact of climatic factors on countries' vegetation through honey production. Honey production of nine apiaries consisting of 165 rectangular movable frames beehives was monitored over a seven year period starting from 2002 to 2008. Climatic data such as rainfall, temperature and wind speed were obtained from the nearest meteorological station. Line...

  16. A Europe-South America network for climate change assessment and impact studies

    OpenAIRE

    Boulanger, Jean-Philippe; Brasseur, G.; Carril, A. F.; M. Castro; Dégallier, Nicolas; Ereno, C.; Le Treut, H.; Marengo, J.A.; Menendez, C. G.; Nunez, M. N.; Penalba, O. C.; Rolla, A. L.; Rusticucci, M.; R. Terra

    2010-01-01

    The goal of the CLARIS project was to build an integrated European-South American network dedicated to promote common research strategies to observe and predict climate changes and their consequent socio-economic impacts taking into account the climate and societal peculiarities of South America. Reaching that goal placed the present network as a privileged advisor to contribute to the design of adaptation strategies in a region strongly affected by and dependent on climate variability (e. g....

  17. Projected climate change impacts and short term predictions on staple crops in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mereu, V.; Spano, D.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.

    2013-12-01

    Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) drives the economy of many African countries and it is mainly rain-fed agriculture used for subsistence. Increasing temperatures, changed precipitation patterns and more frequent droughts may lead to a substantial decrease of crop yields. The projected impacts of future climate change on agriculture are expected to be significant and extensive in the SSA due to the shortening of the growing seasons and the increasing of water-stress risk. Differences in Agro-Ecological Zones and geographical characteristics of SSA influence the diverse impacts of climate change, which can greatly differ across the continent and within countries. The vulnerability of African Countries to climate change is aggravated by the low adaptive capacity of the continent, due to the increasing of its population, the widespread poverty, and other social factors. In this contest, the assessment of climate change impact on agricultural sector has a particular interest to stakeholder and policy makers, in order to identify specific agricultural sectors and Agro-Ecological Zones that could be more vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions and to develop the most appropriate policies to cope with these threats. For these reasons, the evaluation of climate change impacts for key crops in SSA was made exploring climate uncertainty and focusing on short period monitoring, which is particularly useful for food security and risk management analysis. The DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5 was used for the analysis. Crop simulation models included in DSSAT-CSM are tools that allow to simulate physiological process of crop growth, development and production, by combining genetic crop characteristics and environmental (soil and weather) conditions. For each selected crop, the models were used, after a parameterization phase, to evaluate climate change impacts on crop phenology and production

  18. Using Copernicus earth observation services to monitor climate change impacts and adaptations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Daniel; Zebisch, Marc; Sonnenschein, Ruth; Schönthaler, Konstanze; von Andrian-Werburg, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    In the last years, earth observation made a big leap towards an operational monitoring of the state of environment. Remote sensing provides for instance information on the dynamics, trends and anomalies of snow and glaciers, vegetation, soil moisture or water temperature. In particular, the European Copernicus initiative offers new opportunities through new satellites with a higher temporal and spatial resolution, operational services for environmental monitoring and an open data access policy. With the Copernicus climate change service and the ESA climate change initiative, specific earth observation programs are in place to address the impacts of climate change. However, such products and services are until now rarely picked up in the field of policy or decision making oriented climate impact or climate risk assessments. In this talk, we will present results of a study, which focus on the question, if and how remote sensing approaches could be integrated into operational monitoring activities of climate impacts and response measures on a national and subnational scale. We assessed all existing and planned Copernicus services regarding their relevance for climate impact monitoring by comparing them against the indication fields from an indicator system for climate impact and response monitoring in Germany, which has lately been developed in the framework of the German national adaptation strategy. For several climate impact or response indicators, an immediate integration of remote sensing data could be identified and been recommended. For these cases, we will show practical examples on the benefit of remote sensing data. For other indication fields, promising approaches were found, which need further development. We argue that remote sensing is a very valuable complement to the existing indicator schemes by contributing with spatial explicit, timely information but not always easy to integrate with classical approaches, which are oriented towards consistent long

  19. ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TOURISM IN SOME EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iuliana CEBUC

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The world’s climate is changing at unprecedented rates affecting nearly every industry globally. Tourism, because of its strong connection to the natural environment is particularly susceptible to climate change.The paper outlines the conceptual framework of the different types of climate change impacts and justifies the necessity of economic impact studies, especially on a local level. Results of a number of impacts studies on a global level (about international tourist flows and expenditures, as well as on a European and country level (both about summer and winter tourism have been examined.However, the purpose is not to give single values of damage or impact of climate change, but to explore the plausible ranges of impacts. In conclusion, the paper presents the expected results of a new research project – CLAVIER (Climate Change and Viability: Impacts on Central and Easter funded by the 6th Framework Programme and aiming at filling in the research gap concerning studies on a local level, related especially to economic impact and vulnerability issues.

  20. The impact of climate change on water resources: Assessment at the scale of the Indian subcontinent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pechlivanidis, Ilias; Olsson, Jonas; Bosshard, Thomas; Sharma, Devesh; Sharma, Kc; Arheimer, Berit

    2015-04-01

    The large increase in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases has led to the global climate change phenomenon which is expected to have a strong impact on water resources on local, regional and global scales. The Indian subcontinent is vulnerable to climate change since the region is characterized by a strong hydro-climatic gradient due to monsoon and the geographic features, and hence poses extraordinary challenges to understand, quantify and predict future availability in water resources. In here, the impact of climate change on the hydro-climatology of the subcontinent is investigated by comparing statistics of current and projected future fluxes resulting from three emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The use of different emission scenarios allows for the definition of uncertainty of future impacts. Climate projections from the CORDEX-South Asia framework have been bias-corrected using the DBS (Distribution Based Scaling