WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate change effects

  1. Health Effects of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... resulting health effects. Extreme weather events due to climate change may cause people to experience geographic displacement, damage to their property, loss of loved ones, and chronic stress—all of which can negatively affect ... change may be associated with staple food shortages, malnutrition, ...

  2. Creating Effective Dialogue Around Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiehl, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    Communicating climate change to people from diverse sectors of society has proven to be difficult in the United States. It is widely recognized that difficulties arise from a number of sources, including: basic science understanding, the psychologically affect laden content surrounding climate change, and the diversity of value systems that exist in our society. I explore ways of working with the affect that arises around climate change and describe specific methods to work with the resistance often encountered when communicating this important issue. The techniques I describe are rooted in psychology and group process and provide means for creating more effective narratives to break through the barriers to communicating climate change science. Examples are given from personal experiences in presenting climate change to diverse groups.

  3. Mental health effects of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanta Kumar Padhy

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We all know that 2014 has been declared as the hottest year globally by the Meteorological department of United States of America. Climate change is a global challenge which is likely to affect the mankind in substantial ways. Not only climate change is expected to affect physical health, it is also likely to affect mental health. Increasing ambient temperatures is likely to increase rates of aggression and violent suicides, while prolonged droughts due to climate change can lead to more number of farmer suicides. Droughts otherwise can lead to impaired mental health and stress. Increased frequency of disasters with climate change can lead to posttraumatic stress disorder, adjustment disorder, and depression. Changes in climate and global warming may require population to migrate, which can lead to acculturation stress. It can also lead to increased rates of physical illnesses, which secondarily would be associated with psychological distress. The possible effects of mitigation measures on mental health are also discussed. The paper concludes with a discussion of what can and should be done to tackle the expected mental health issues consequent to climate change.

  4. Climate Effects of Global Land Cover Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gibbard, S G; Caldeira, K; Bala, G; Phillips, T; Wickett, M

    2005-08-24

    There are two competing effects of global land cover change on climate: an albedo effect which leads to heating when changing from grass/croplands to forest, and an evapotranspiration effect which tends to produce cooling. It is not clear which effect would dominate in a global land cover change scenario. We have performed coupled land/ocean/atmosphere simulations of global land cover change using the NCAR CAM3 atmospheric general circulation model. We find that replacement of current vegetation by trees on a global basis would lead to a global annual mean warming of 1.6 C, nearly 75% of the warming produced under a doubled CO{sub 2} concentration, while global replacement by grasslands would result in a cooling of 0.4 C. These results suggest that more research is necessary before forest carbon storage should be deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming. In particular, high latitude forests probably have a net warming effect on the Earth's climate.

  5. Climate change effects for phenological processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilla Dede

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change may shift dates of phenological phase of plants. We can even demonstrate changes in plant growth due to climate change by model simulations. Earth warming will accelerate appearance of the phenological phases earlier. However, not only temperature can affect on that, but some other meteorological factors as well.The theoretical implications of climate change is the main goal of the present work using strategic modeling and a 140 years long temperature data set. Analysis of the Geophyton Phenology Database of the ELTE Botanical Garden is also made for 24 meteorological factors’ effect on the first bud appearance, the beginning of flowering, and the end of flowering. The found regression models show the relationships between phenological phase’ dates and meteorological factors.Finally, the rising temperatures are variously influencing phenological dates of selected species involved a Theoretical ecosístem. The daily fluctuation of temperature and the frosty day number are strongly influence geophyton plants and their pheonological phase’ dates.

  6. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate......This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...

  7. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  8. Effects of expected global climate change on marine faunas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fields, P A; Graham, J B; Rosenblatt, R H; Somero, G N

    1993-10-01

    Anthropogenically induced global climate change is likely to have a major impact on marine ecosystems, affecting both biodiversity and productivity. These changes will, in turn, have a large impact on humankind's interactions with the sea. By examining the effects of past climate changes on the ocean, as well as by determining how shifts in physical parameters of the ocean may affect physiology, biochemistry and community interactions, scientists are beginning to explore the possible effects of global climate change on marine biota.

  9. Effects of Climate Change in Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-06-01

    The report analyzes the vulnerability of Swedish ecological and technical systems to predicted changes in the global climate. The analysis shows, for example, that plant ecosystems will be shifted northward and that their species composition will change. Technical systems, which are normally adapted to local conditions, may have to be modified to satisfy different design parameters. The report examines a few selected systems, with no attempt at being comprehensive. 44 refs

  10. Multi-factor climate change effects on insect herbivore performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scherber, Christoph; Gladbach, David J; Stevnbak, Karen;

    2013-01-01

    The impact of climate change on herbivorous insects can have far-reaching consequences for ecosystem processes. However, experiments investigating the combined effects of multiple climate change drivers on herbivorous insects are scarce. We independently manipulated three climate change drivers (CO......, and water content. Overall, drought was the most important factor for this insect herbivore. Our study shows that weight and survival of insect herbivores may decline under future climate. The complexity of insect herbivore responses increases with the number of combined climate change drivers....

  11. Climate Change Effects Overwintering of Insects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vukasinovic, Dragana

    Climate change is modifying winter conditions rapidly and predicting species’ reactions to global warming has been the “the holy grail” of climate sciences, especially for managed systems, like agro-ecosystems. Intuitively, increased winter temperatures should release insects from coldinduced......) and could affect post-winter reproduction. In the case of D. radicum, mild winter caused earlier emergence of flies.Overall, this study showed that mild winters increased mortality of H. axyridis, but earlier onset of population growth may compensate for this, and in D. radicum mild winters decreased...... mortality and induced earli er emergence of flies. Thus, for some species, like H. axyridis, mild winters may not benefit nor conclusively stress the species, but for others like D. radicum, mild winters may benefit the population and be of concern to farmers.Agricultural insect fauna is a prime example...

  12. Direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibian populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaustein, Andrew R.; Walls, Susan C.; Bancroft, Betsy A.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Searle, Catherine L.; Gervasi, Stephanie S.

    2010-01-01

    As part of an overall decline in biodiversity, populations of many organisms are declining and species are being lost at unprecedented rates around the world. This includes many populations and species of amphibians. Although numerous factors are affecting amphibian populations, we show potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibians at the individual, population and community level. Shifts in amphibian ranges are predicted. Changes in climate may affect survival, growth, reproduction and dispersal capabilities. Moreover, climate change can alter amphibian habitats including vegetation, soil, and hydrology. Climate change can influence food availability, predator-prey relationships and competitive interactions which can alter community structure. Climate change can also alter pathogen-host dynamics and greatly influence how diseases are manifested. Changes in climate can interact with other stressors such as UV-B radiation and contaminants. The interactions among all these factors are complex and are probably driving some amphibian population declines and extinctions.

  13. Effects of Climate Change on the European Nuclear Power Sector

    OpenAIRE

    Vögele, Stefan; Rübbelke, Dirk

    2010-01-01

    4 p. Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases cause climate change and this change in turn induces various direct impacts, e.g., changes in regional weather patterns. The frequency of heat waves and droughts in Europe is likely to rise. Yet, beyond these immediate effects of climate change, there are more indirect effects: Droughts in Europe will cause water scarcity and a lack in water supply will affect further sectors and critical infrastructures. An arising lack in water supply for ...

  14. Multi-factor climate change effects on insect herbivore performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scherber, Christoph; Gladbach, David J; Stevnbak, Karen;

    2013-01-01

    The impact of climate change on herbivorous insects can have far-reaching consequences for ecosystem processes. However, experiments investigating the combined effects of multiple climate change drivers on herbivorous insects are scarce. We independently manipulated three climate change drivers (CO...... the drought treatment, and there was a three-way interaction between time, CO2, and drought. Survival was lowest when drought, warming, and elevated CO2 were combined. Effects of climate change drivers depended on other co-acting factors and were mediated by changes in plant secondary compounds, nitrogen...... suturalis Thomson), an important herbivore on heather, to ambient versus elevated drought, temperature, and CO2 (plus all combinations) for 5 weeks. Larval weight and survival were highest under ambient conditions and decreased significantly with the number of climate change drivers. Weight was lowest under...

  15. Climate Change Effects on Agriculture: Economic Responses to Biophysical Shocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlik, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina

    2014-01-01

    Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(sup 2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

  16. The effects of climate, permafrost and fire on vegetation change in Siberia in a changing climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tchebakova, N M; Parfenova, E [V N Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Academgorodok, Krasnoyarsk, 660036 (Russian Federation); Soja, A J, E-mail: ncheby@forest.akadem.r, E-mail: Amber.J.Soja@nasa.go [National Institute of Aerospace (NIA), NASA Langley Research Center, Climate Sciences, 21 Langley Boulevard, Mail Stop 420, Hampton, VA 23681-2199 (United States)

    2009-10-15

    Observations and general circulation model projections suggest significant temperature increases in Siberia this century that are expected to have profound effects on Siberian vegetation. Potential vegetation change across Siberia was modeled, coupling our Siberian BioClimatic Model with several Hadley Centre climate change scenarios for 2020, 2050 and 2080, with explicit consideration of permafrost and fire activity. In the warmer and drier climate projected by these scenarios, Siberian forests are predicted to decrease and shift northwards and forest-steppe and steppe ecosystems are predicted to dominate over half of Siberia due to the dryer climate by 2080. Despite the large predicted increases in warming, permafrost is not predicted to thaw deep enough to sustain dark (Pinus sibirica, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga. Over eastern Siberia, larch (Larix dahurica) taiga is predicted to continue to be the dominant zonobiome because of its ability to withstand continuous permafrost. The model also predicts new temperate broadleaf forest and forest-steppe habitats by 2080. Potential fire danger evaluated with the annual number of high fire danger days (Nesterov index is 4000-10 000) is predicted to increase by 2080, especially in southern Siberia and central Yakutia. In a warming climate, fuel load accumulated due to replacement of forest by steppe together with frequent fire weather promotes high risks of large fires in southern Siberia and central Yakutia, where wild fires would create habitats for grasslands because the drier climate would no longer be suitable for forests.

  17. Effects of expected global climate change on marine faunas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fields, P.A.; Graham, J.B.; Rosenblatt, R.H.; Somero, G.N. (University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States). Scripps Institute of Oceanography)

    1993-10-01

    Anthropogenically induced global climate change is likely to have a major impact on marine ecosystems, affecting both biodiversity and productivity. These changes will, in turn, have a large impact on humankind's interactions with the sea. By examining the effects of past climate changes on the ocean, as well as by determining how shifts in physical parameters of the ocean may affect physiology, biochemistry and community interactions, scientists are beginning to explore the possible effects of global climate change on marine biota.

  18. Cosmic rays and space weather: effects on global climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. I. Dorman

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider possible effects of cosmic rays and some other space factors on the Earth's climate change. It is well known that the system of internal and external factors formatting the climate is very unstable; decreasing planetary temperature leads to an increase of snow surface, and decrease of the total solar energy input into the system decreases the planetary temperature even more, etc. From this it follows that even energetically small factors may have a big influence on climate change. In our opinion, the most important of these factors are cosmic rays and cosmic dust through their influence on clouds, and thus, on climate.

  19. Study of Climate effect on evapotranspiration change procedure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asady, A.; Sharifan, H.

    2009-04-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the most important of parameters in water cycle. This parameter changes in climate different conditions. In this manner the probability of ET is important for design of irrigation systems. This study investigated climate effect on evapotranspiration changes procedure. Thus ET was estimated by Hargreaves-Samani (H-S) method in the some of regions: Gorgan(semi wet,), Gonbad (semi dry) , Maraveh-Tappeh (semi dry to dry). Then diagrams of ET were drawn for different probabilities. Investigation shown that if climate was drier, irrigation periods increased and difference of ET averages decreased. Keyword : Evapotranspiration, Probability, Hargreave-Samani method, Climate, water use.

  20. Plant Respiration and Climate Change Effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruhn, D.

    2002-04-01

    Plant respiration is one of the key processes in terms of an understanding of plant growth and functioning in a future climate. Short- and long-term effects of temperature and CO{sub 2} on plant respiration were investigated in a number of plant species. The experiments tested effects of either temperature and/or CO{sub 2} from the level of individual respiratory enzymes, isolated mitochondria, whole-tissue, and up to the whole canopy level. The short-term effects of elevated atmospheric CO{sub 2} on plant respiration appeared to be less than suggested so far in the literature. This was true both at the tissue level and for intact mitochondria. Respiratory enzymes can, however, be affected already at low CO{sub 2}. These effects did not manifest itself at the tissue level, though, due to low degrees of control on the whole respiratory process exerted by the particular enzymes. Plant respiration on the other hand was affected by long-term growth at elevated atmospheric CO{sub 2}. The findings of the reduced plant respiration at the leaf level were consistent with the literature and potential causes are discussed. Short-term effects of temperature on plant respiration were demonstrated to be dependent on the actual measurement temperature. Further, it is shown that mitochondrial leaf respiration in darkness and light differ substantially in the temperature sensitivity with the former being the far most sensitive. This has implications for modelling CO{sub 2} exchange between vegetation and atmosphere as demonstrated here, since this has so far been neglected. Long-term effects of temperature resulted in respiratory acclimation in a number of species. Respiratory acclimation appeared not to occur to any one single type of growth temperature. The implications of this finding in combination with the timing of acclimation are discussed for modelling respiratory CO{sub 2} release. (au)

  1. Climate change effects on forests: A critical review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loehle, C. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); LeBlanc, D. [Ball State Univ., Muncie, IN (United States). Dept. of Biology

    1996-02-01

    While current projections of future climate change associated with increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases have a high degree of uncertainty, the potential effects of climate change on forests are of increasing concern. A number of studies based on forest simulation models predict substantial temperatures associated with increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. However, the structure of these computer models may cause them to overemphasize the role of climate in controlling tree growth and mortality. We propose that forest simulation models be reformulated with more realistic representations of growth responses to temperature, moisture, mortality, and dispersal. We believe that only when these models more accurately reflect the physiological bases of the responses of tree species to climate variables can they be used to simulate responses of forests to rapid changes in climate. We argue that direct forest responses to climate change projected by such a reformulated model may be less traumatic and more gradual than those projected by current models. However, the indirect effects of climate change on forests, mediated by alterations of disturbance regimes or the actions of pests and pathogens, may accelerate climate-induced change in forests, and they deserve further study and inclusion within forest simulation models.

  2. Climate change and wildlife health: direct and indirect effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofmeister, Erik; Rogall, Gail Moede; Wesenberg, Katherine; Abbott, Rachel; Work, Thierry; Schuler, Krysten; Sleeman, Jonathan; Winton, James

    2010-01-01

    Climate change will have significant effects on the health of wildlife, domestic animals, and humans, according to scientists. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects that unprecedented rates of climate change will result in increasing average global temperatures; rising sea levels; changing global precipitation patterns, including increasing amounts and variability; and increasing midcontinental summer drought (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007). Increasing temperatures, combined with changes in rainfall and humidity, may have significant impacts on wildlife, domestic animal, and human health and diseases. When combined with expanding human populations, these changes could increase demand on limited water resources, lead to more habitat destruction, and provide yet more opportunities for infectious diseases to cross from one species to another.

  3. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON POVERTY AND SOLUTION SUGGESTIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sermin Atak, Melike Erdogan, Asli Yoenten

    2008-09-30

    Most environmental risks including global warming are accepted as ''manufactured risks'' as well. Climate change, as manufactured risk, occurs due to human activities such as energy usage, industrialization, agricultural activities, pollination and forest damage which broke down the combination of global atmosphere in addition to nature sourced climate change which can be stated as external risk. Global climate change, as manufactured risk, has environmental and socio-economic effects in the subjects like water shortage, drought, highness in water levels, decrease in biological diversity, nutrition and food shortage. The effect of global climate change, as manufactured risk, on society's poverty has been classified as horizontal and vertical effect in this study. It's possible to say that horizontal effect of global climate change, as manufactured risk, on poverty will come out in the way ''expansion of poverty''. It's possible to state the vertical effect of global climate change, as manufactured risk, on poverty as the ''deepening of poverty'' and ''intensifying of poverty''. Horizontal and vertical effects of climate change on poverty can not be evaluated interdependently. The multiplier effect and the cross interaction that these two effects form together bring along the process of increasing of poverty and the solution's getting difficult. Global climate change, as manufactured risk, affects all parts but the most powerful effect of it is over the poor. The studies in the direction of decreasing the poverty effect of global climate change necessitate global cooperation. National and international solutions should be considered together. In addition to global cooperation, individual, institutional, domestic and regional applications must have complementary qualities in decreasing the effects of global climate change. Global and individual studies made for

  4. Climate change effects on plant disease: Genomes to ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Garrett, Karen A.; Dendy, S.P.; Frank, E.E.; Rouse, M. N.; Travers, S.E.

    2006-01-01

    We have reviewed the potential effects of climate change on plant disease, considering processes within plants as well as larger scale processes. LTRA-4 (Practices and Strategies for Vulnerable Agro-Ecosystems)

  5. Flooding of tunnels: Quantifying climate change effects on infrastructure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huibregtse, J.N.; Napoles, O.M.; Dewit, M.S.

    2013-01-01

    To develop climate proof road infrastructure it is of importance to understand the quantitative effects of expected climate change on the performance of individual components, such as tunnels and road sections, and their contributions to the performance of the overall road network.A full understandi

  6. Effects of historical land cover changes on climate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI ZhengGuo; YAN XiaoDong; YIN ChongHua; WANG ZhaoMin

    2007-01-01

    In order to explore the influence of anthropogenic land use on the climate system during the last millennium, a set of experiments is performed with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity--the McGill Paleoclimate Model (MPM-2). The present paper mainly focuses on biogeophysical effects of historical land cover changes. A dynamic scenario of deforestation is described based on changes in cropland fraction (RF99). The model simulates a decrease in global mean annual temperature in the range of 0.09-0.16℃, especially 0.14-0.22℃ in Northern Hemisphere during the last 300 years. The responses of climate system to GHGs concentration changes are also calculated for comparisons. Now, afforestation is becoming an important choice for the enhancement of terrestrial carbon sequestration and adjustment of regional climate. The results indicate that biogeophysical effects of land cover changes cannot be neglected in the assessments of climate change.

  7. Anticipated effects of climate change on estuarine and coastal fisheries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kennedy, V.S. (Univ. of Maryland, Cambridge (USA))

    Although the timing and magnitude of global climate change is in dispute, the possible effects of such charge merit consideration to allow for discussion of policy ramification and mitigative actions. Climate change may result in sea level rise; water temperature increase; and deviations from present patterns of precipitation, wind, and water circulation. Estuaries may experience loss of marsh habitat, intrusion of marine waters and associated organisms, changes in circulation patterns that affect retention of some indigenous species, and increased hypoxia and storm surges. Estuarine and coastal systems could experience poleward retreat of cold-tolerant species and range expansion of warm-tolerant species. Some fisheries and aquacultural enterprises and communities would benefit from the results of climate change and others would suffer losses, with economic and population dislocations probably inevitable in many parts of the world. Thus, flexibility in policy-making and planning will be vital if global climate is modified as rapidly as is anticipated by some scientists.

  8. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathwa

  9. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... events, such as hurricanes and wildfires. These can cause death, injuries, stress, and mental health problems. Researchers are studying the best ways to lessen climate change and reduce its impact on our health. NIH: ...

  10. America's Climate Choices: Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liverman, D. M.; McConnell, M. C.; Raven, P.

    2010-12-01

    At the request of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences convened a series of coordinated activities to provide advice on actions and strategies that the nation can take to respond to climate change. As part of this suite of activities, this study examines information needs and recommends ways the federal government can better inform responses by enhancing climate change and greenhouse gas information and reporting systems and by improving climate communication and education. Demand for better information to support climate-related decisions has grown rapidly as people, organizations, and governments have moved ahead with plans and actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the impacts of climate change. To meet this demand, good information systems and services are needed. Without such systems, decision makers cannot evaluate whether particular policies and actions are achieving their goals or should be modified. Although the many non-federal efforts to reduce emissions and/or adapt to future climate changes carry considerable potential to reduce risks related to climate change, there is currently no comprehensive way to assess the effectiveness of those efforts. In addition, the diverse climate change responses to date have resulted in a patchwork of regional, state, and local policies that has prompted many state and business leaders to call for the development of a more predictable and coherent policy environment at the federal level. This report demonstrates that the nation lacks comprehensive, robust, and credible information and reporting systems to inform climate choices and evaluate their effectiveness. This report also argues that decision makers can benefit from a systematic and iterative framework for responding to climate change, in which decisions and policies can be revised in light of new information and experience and that improved information and reporting systems allow for ongoing evaluation of responses to climate risks. The

  11. Climate change effects on beneficial plant-microorganism interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Compant, Stéphane; van der Heijden, Marcel G A; Sessitsch, Angela

    2010-08-01

    It is well known that beneficial plant-associated microorganisms may stimulate plant growth and enhance resistance to disease and abiotic stresses. The effects of climate change factors such as elevated CO(2), drought and warming on beneficial plant-microorganism interactions are increasingly being explored. This now makes it possible to test whether some general patterns occur and whether different groups of plant-associated microorganisms respond differently or in the same way to climate change. Here, we review the results of 135 studies investigating the effects of climate change factors on beneficial microorganisms and their interaction with host plants. The majority of studies showed that elevated CO(2) had a positive influence on the abundance of arbuscular and ectomycorrhizal fungi, whereas the effects on plant growth-promoting bacteria and endophytic fungi were more variable. In most cases, plant-associated microorganisms had a beneficial effect on plants under elevated CO(2). The effects of increased temperature on beneficial plant-associated microorganisms were more variable, positive and neutral, and negative effects were equally common and varied considerably with the study system and the temperature range investigated. Moreover, numerous studies indicated that plant growth-promoting microorganisms (both bacteria and fungi) positively affected plants subjected to drought stress. Overall, this review shows that plant-associated microorganisms are an important factor influencing the response of plants to climate change.

  12. Climatic changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    According to Cleo Paskal climatic changes are environmental changes. They are global, but their impact is local, and manifests them selves in the landscape, in our cities, in open urban spaces, and in everyday life. The landscape and open public spaces will in many cases be the sites where...... measurements to handle climatic changes will be positioned and enacted. Measurements taken are mostly adaptive or aimed to secure and protect existing values, buildings, infrastructure etc., but will in many cases also affects functions, meaning and peoples identification with the landscape and the open urban...... be addressed in order to develop and support social sustainability and identification. This paper explore and discuss how the handling of climatic changes in landscape and open urban spaces might hold a potential for them to become common goods....

  13. Effects of climatic change on the Thornthwaite moisture index

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.; Hay, Lauren E.; Ayers, Mark A.

    1990-01-01

    The Thornthwaite moisture index is a useful indicator of the supply of water (precipitation) in an area relative to the demand for water under prevailing climatic conditions (potential evapotranspiration). This study examines the effects of changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) on the Thornthwaite moisture index in the conterminous United States. Estimates of changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation for doubled-atmospheric CO2 conditions derived from three general circulation models (GCMs) are used to study the response of the moisture index under steady-state doubled-CO2 conditions. Results indicate that temperature and precipitation changes under doubled-CO2 conditions generally will cause the Thornthwaite moisture index to decrease, implying a drier climate for most of the United States. The pattern of expected decrease is consistent among the three GCMs, although the amount of decrease depends on which GCM climatic-change scenario is used. Results also suggest that changes in the moisture index are related mainly to changes in the mean annual potential evapotranspiration as a result of changes in the mean annual temperature, rather than to changes in the mean annual precipitation.

  14. Climate change and health effects in Northwest Alaska

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Brubaker

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available This article provides examples of adverse health effects, including weather-related injury, food insecurity, mental health issues, and water infrastructure damage, and the responses to these effects that are currently being applied in two Northwest Alaska communities.In Northwest Alaska, warming is resulting in a broad range of unusual weather and environmental conditions, including delayed freeze-up, earlier breakup, storm surge, coastal erosion, and thawing permafrost. These are just some of the climate impacts that are driving concerns about weather-related injury, the spread of disease, mental health issues, infrastructure damage, and food and water security. Local leaders are challenged to identify appropriate adaptation strategies to address climate impacts and related health effects.The tribal health system is combining local observations, traditional knowledge, and western science to perform community-specific climate change health impact assessments. Local leaders are applying this information to develop adaptation responses.The Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium will describe relationships between climate impacts and health effects and provide examples of community-scaled adaptation actions currently being applied in Northwest Alaska.Climate change is increasing vulnerability to injury, disease, mental stress, food insecurity, and water insecurity. Northwest communities are applying adaptation approaches that are both specific and appropriate.The health impact assessment process is effective in raising awareness, encouraging discussion, engaging partners, and implementing adaptation planning. With community-specific information, local leaders are applying health protective adaptation measures.

  15. The Effect of Landscape Architecture on Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazanin Nafici

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Permanent environmental influences such as sun, fog, acid rain can destroy structures, buildings and the environment. Improving the quality of urban environment with utilizing green roof and green facades is illustrated for several years and installing them can offer multiple benefits. A detailed integrated presentation of green roof and green facade systems is provided in this paper. The aim of the research is to illustrate the effect of green façade and green roofs and generally greenery structure on the climate changes. The author tries to find a solution for the climate changes and environmental issues and resolving it by above- mentioned landscape architecture methods.

  16. Designing urban parks that ameliorate the effects of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brown, R.D.; Vanos, J.; Kenny, N.; Lenzholzer, S.

    2015-01-01

    Many inhabitants of cities throughout the world suffer from health problems and discomfort that are caused by overheating of urban areas, and there is compelling evidence that these problems will be exacerbated by global climate change. Most cities are not designed to ameliorate these effects althou

  17. Overview of different aspects of climate change effects on soils.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qafoku, Nikolla

    2014-08-01

    Climate change [i.e., high atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations (≥400 ppm); increasing air temperatures (2-4°C or greater); significant and/or abrupt changes in daily, seasonal, and inter-annual temperature; changes in the wet/dry cycles; intensive rainfall and/or heavy storms; extended periods of drought; extreme frost; heat waves and increased fire frequency] is and will significantly affect soil properties and fertility, water resources, food quantity and quality, and environmental quality. Biotic processes that consume atmospheric CO2 and create organic carbon (C) that is either reprocessed to CO2 or stored in soils, are the subject of active current investigations with great concern over the influence of climate change. In addition, abiotic C cycling and its influence on the inorganic C pool in soils is a fundamental global process in which acidic atmospheric CO2 participates in the weathering of carbonate and silicate minerals, ultimately delivering bicarbonate and Ca2+ or other cations that precipitate in the form of carbonates in soils or are transported to the rivers, lakes, and oceans. Soil responses to climate change will be complex, and there are many uncertainties and unresolved issues. The objective of the review is to initiate and further stimulate a discussion about some important and challenging aspects of climate-change effects on soils, such as accelerated weathering of soil minerals and resulting C and elemental fluxes in and out of soils, soil/geo-engineering methods used to increase C sequestration in soils, soil organic matter (SOM) protection, transformation and mineralization, and SOM temperature sensitivity. This review reports recent discoveries and identifies key research needs required to understand the effects of climate change on soils.

  18. Overview of different aspects of climate change effects on soils

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qafoku, Nikolla P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-08-01

    Climate change [i.e., high atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations (≥400 ppm); increasing air temperatures (2-4°C or greater); significant and/or abrupt changes in daily, seasonal, and inter-annual temperature; changes in the wet/dry cycles; intensive rainfall and/or heavy storms; extended periods of drought; extreme frost; heat waves and increased fire frequency] is and will significantly affect soil properties and fertility, water resources, food quantity and quality, and environmental quality. Biotic processes that consume atmospheric CO2 and create organic carbon (C) that is either reprocessed to CO2 or stored in soils, are the subject of active current investigations with great concern over the influence of climate change. In addition, abiotic C cycling and its influence on the inorganic C pool in soils is a fundamental global process in which acidic atmospheric CO2 participates in the weathering of carbonate and silicate minerals, ultimately delivering bicarbonate and Ca2+ or other cations that precipitate in the form of carbonates in soils or are transported to the rivers, lakes, and oceans. Soil responses to climate change will be complex, and there are many uncertainties and unresolved issues. The objective of the review is to initiate and further stimulate a discussion about some important and challenging aspects of climate-change effects on soils, such as accelerated weathering of soil minerals and resulting C and elemental fluxes in and out of soils, soil/geo-engineering methods used to increase C sequestration in soils, soil organic matter (SOM) protection, transformation and mineralization, and SOM temperature sensitivity. This review reports recent discoveries and identifies key research needs required to understand the effects of climate change on soils.

  19. The effects of changing solar activity on climate: contributions from palaeoclimatological studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engels, S.; van Geel, B.

    2012-01-01

    Natural climate change currently acts in concert with human-induced changes in the climate system. To disentangle the natural variability in the climate system and the human-induced effects on the global climate, a critical analysis of climate change in the past may offer a better understanding of t

  20. Climate Change and ENSO Effects on Southeastern US Climate Patterns and Maize Yield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mourtzinis, Spyridon; Ortiz, Brenda V.; Damianidis, Damianos

    2016-07-01

    Climate change has a strong influence on weather patterns and significantly affects crop yields globally. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a strong influence on the U.S. climate and is related to agricultural production variability. ENSO effects are location-specific and in southeastern U.S. strongly connect with climate variability. When combined with climate change, the effects on growing season climate patterns and crop yields might be greater than expected. In our study, historical monthly precipitation and temperature data were coupled with non-irrigated maize yield data (33-43 years depending on the location) to show a potential yield suppression of ~15% for one °C increase in southeastern U.S. growing season maximum temperature. Yield suppression ranged between -25 and -2% among locations suppressing the southeastern U.S. average yield trend since 1981 by 17 kg ha-1year-1 (~25%), mainly due to year-to-year June temperature anomalies. Yields varied among ENSO phases from 1971-2013, with greater yields observed during El Niño phase. During La Niña years, maximum June temperatures were higher than Neutral and El Niño, whereas June precipitation was lower than El Niño years. Our data highlight the importance of developing location-specific adaptation strategies quantifying both, climate change and ENSO effects on month-specific growing season climate conditions.

  1. Climate Change and ENSO Effects on Southeastern US Climate Patterns and Maize Yield.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mourtzinis, Spyridon; Ortiz, Brenda V; Damianidis, Damianos

    2016-01-01

    Climate change has a strong influence on weather patterns and significantly affects crop yields globally. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a strong influence on the U.S. climate and is related to agricultural production variability. ENSO effects are location-specific and in southeastern U.S. strongly connect with climate variability. When combined with climate change, the effects on growing season climate patterns and crop yields might be greater than expected. In our study, historical monthly precipitation and temperature data were coupled with non-irrigated maize yield data (33-43 years depending on the location) to show a potential yield suppression of ~15% for one °C increase in southeastern U.S. growing season maximum temperature. Yield suppression ranged between -25 and -2% among locations suppressing the southeastern U.S. average yield trend since 1981 by 17 kg ha(-1)year(-1) (~25%), mainly due to year-to-year June temperature anomalies. Yields varied among ENSO phases from 1971-2013, with greater yields observed during El Niño phase. During La Niña years, maximum June temperatures were higher than Neutral and El Niño, whereas June precipitation was lower than El Niño years. Our data highlight the importance of developing location-specific adaptation strategies quantifying both, climate change and ENSO effects on month-specific growing season climate conditions.

  2. Effective Strategies for Talking about Climate Change in the Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busch, K. C.; Osborne, Jonathan

    2014-01-01

    Teaching about climate science presents some unique challenges. Unlike many other science topics, mitigation and adaptation to climate change will require students to take action. This article outlines five major challenges to communicating about climate change in the classroom, drawing on research in environmental psychology: scepticism,…

  3. The effects of climate change and land-use change on demographic rates and population viability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selwood, Katherine E; McGeoch, Melodie A; Mac Nally, Ralph

    2015-08-01

    Understanding the processes that lead to species extinctions is vital for lessening pressures on biodiversity. While species diversity, presence and abundance are most commonly used to measure the effects of human pressures, demographic responses give a more proximal indication of how pressures affect population viability and contribute to extinction risk. We reviewed how demographic rates are affected by the major anthropogenic pressures, changed landscape condition caused by human land use, and climate change. We synthesized the results of 147 empirical studies to compare the relative effect size of climate and landscape condition on birth, death, immigration and emigration rates in plant and animal populations. While changed landscape condition is recognized as the major driver of species declines and losses worldwide, we found that, on average, climate variables had equally strong effects on demographic rates in plant and animal populations. This is significant given that the pressures of climate change will continue to intensify in coming decades. The effects of climate change on some populations may be underestimated because changes in climate conditions during critical windows of species life cycles may have disproportionate effects on demographic rates. The combined pressures of land-use change and climate change may result in species declines and extinctions occurring faster than otherwise predicted, particularly if their effects are multiplicative.

  4. Climate Change and Air Pollution: Effects on Respiratory Allergy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Amato, Gennaro; Pawankar, Ruby; Vitale, Carolina; Lanza, Maurizia; Molino, Antonio; Stanziola, Anna; Sanduzzi, Alessandro; Vatrella, Alessandro; D'Amato, Maria

    2016-09-01

    A body of evidence suggests that major changes involving the atmosphere and the climate, including global warming induced by anthropogenic factors, have impact on the biosphere and human environment. Studies on the effects of climate change on respiratory allergy are still lacking and current knowledge is provided by epidemiological and experimental studies on the relationship between allergic respiratory diseases, asthma and environmental factors, such as meteorological variables, airborne allergens, and air pollution. Urbanization with its high levels of vehicle emissions, and a westernized lifestyle are linked to the rising frequency of respiratory allergic diseases and bronchial asthma observed over recent decades in most industrialized countries. However, it is not easy to evaluate the impact of climate changes and air pollution on the prevalence of asthma in the general population and on the timing of asthma exacerbations, although the global rise in asthma prevalence and severity could also be an effect of air pollution and climate change. Since airborne allergens and air pollutants are frequently increased contemporaneously in the atmosphere, an enhanced IgE-mediated response to aeroallergens and enhanced airway inflammation could account for the increasing frequency of respiratory allergy and asthma in atopic subjects in the last 5 decades. Pollen allergy is frequently used to study the relationship between air pollution and respiratory allergic diseases, such as rhinitis and bronchial asthma. Epidemiologic studies have demonstrated that urbanization, high levels of vehicle emissions, and westernized lifestyle are correlated with an increased frequency of respiratory allergy prevalently in people who live in urban areas in comparison with people living in rural areas. Climatic factors (temperature, wind speed, humidity, thunderstorms, etc.) can affect both components (biological and chemical) of this interaction.

  5. Effect of climatic changes on the prevalence of zoonotic diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neelam Sachan and V.P.Singh

    Full Text Available Combustion of fossil fuels and human activities has led to sharp increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. These climate changes have tremendous effect on prevalence of zoonotic diseases. The changes in climate may increase the insect vectors, prolong transmission cycles or increase the importation of vectors or animal reservoirs. It may also have an adverse effect on biodiversity, distribution of animals and microflora which may lead to emergence of zoonotic disease outbreaks. A historical perspective on major vector-borne diseases such as arboviral encephalitides, dengue fever and Rift Valley fever, Lyme disease, West Nile virus, malaria, plague, hantavirus pulmonary syndrome and dengue fever have been shown to have a distinct seasonal pattern and in some instances their frequency has been shown to be weather sensitive. Because of the sensitivities of the vectors and animal hosts of these diseases to climactic factors, climate change-driven ecological changes such as variations in rainfall and temperature could significantly alter the range, seasonality and human incidence of many zoonotic and vector-borne diseases. The evolution of emerging zoonotic diseases globally during the period 1996 to 2007 was Ebola haemorrhagic fever, Rift Valley fever, avian influenza H5N1, plague and Nipah virus. Whereas, bird flu and swine flu like diseases are still creating havoc for human and animal health worldwide. It is a today’s and tomorrow’s demand that interdisciplinary communication between health professionals, veterinarians, environmental scientists, ecologists, geographers and economists seeking to understand climate change will be key to protecting people in India and worldwide against these threats. Rigorous cross-disciplinary studies using a variety of methodological tools will enable us to predict the transmission dynamics of diseases under different climate scenarios and estimate the cost-effectiveness of mitigation strategies. In this

  6. US Agriculture under Climate Change: An Examination of Climate Change Effects on Ease of Achieving RFS2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuquan W. Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The challenges and opportunities facing today's agriculture within the climate change context are at least twofold: in addition to adapting to a potentially more variable climate, agriculture may also take on the addition role of mitigating GHG emissions—such as providing renewable fuels to replace fossil fuels to some extent. For the US, a large-scale GHG mitigation effort through biofuels production pursuant to the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2 is already unfolding. A question thus naturally arises for the RFS2-relevant US agricultural sector: will climate change make it harder to meet the volume goals set in the RFS2 mandates, considering that both climate change and RFS2 may have significant impacts on US agriculture? The agricultural component of FASOMGHG that models the land use allocation within the conterminous US agricultural sector is employed to investigate the effects of climate change (with autonomous adaptation at farm level, coupled with RFS2, on US agriculture. The analysis shows that climate change eases the burden of meeting the RFS2 mandates increasing consumer welfare while decreasing producer welfare. The results also show that climate change encourages a more diversified use of biofuel feedstocks for cellulosic ethanol production, in particular crop residues.

  7. The increased atmospheric greenhouse effect and regional climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groenaas, S. [Bergen Univ. (Norway)

    1996-03-01

    This paper was read at the workshop ``The Norwegian Climate and Ozone Research Programme`` held on 11-12 March 1996. The main information for predicting future climate changes comes from integrating coupled climate models of the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere. Regional climate change may be studied from the global integrations, however, resolution is coarse because of insufficient computer power. Attempts are being made to get more regional details out of the global integrations by ``downscaling`` the latter. This can be done in two ways. Firstly, limited area models with high resolution are applied, driven by the global results as boundary values. Secondly, statistical relationships have been found between observed meteorological parameters, like temperature and precipitation, and analyzed large scale gridded fields. The derived relations are then used on similar data from climate runs to give local interpretations. A review is given of literature on recent observations of climate variations and on predicted regional climate change. 18 refs., 4 figs.

  8. Global Climate Change: Federal Research on Possible Human Health Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-02-10

    conditioning systems.”20 A recent rise in one measure of poverty in the United States is argued by some to suggest that there may be more poor ...conclusions are common to several studies on possible health effects of climate change: the infirm, the elderly, and the poor may be disproportionately...Global Change Research Program, op. cit. 20 Ibid. 21 Madrick, Jeff. A Rise in Child Poverty Rates Is At Risk In U.S., the New York Times on the Web, June

  9. Deforestation Induced Climate Change: Effects of Spatial Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longobardi, Patrick; Montenegro, Alvaro; Beltrami, Hugo; Eby, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Deforestation is associated with increased atmospheric CO2 and alterations to the surface energy and mass balances that can lead to local and global climate changes. Previous modelling studies show that the global surface air temperature (SAT) response to deforestation depends on latitude, with most simulations showing that high latitude deforestation results in cooling, low latitude deforestation causes warming and that the mid latitude response is mixed. These earlier conclusions are based on simulated large scal land cover change, with complete removal of trees from whole latitude bands. Using a global climate model we examine the effects of removing fractions of 5% to 100% of forested areas in the high, mid and low latitudes. All high latitude deforestation scenarios reduce mean global SAT, the opposite occurring for low latitude deforestation, although a decrease in SAT is simulated over low latitude deforested areas. Mid latitude SAT response is mixed. In all simulations deforested areas tend to become drier and have lower SAT, although soil temperatures increase over deforested mid and low latitude grid cells. For high latitude deforestation fractions of 45% and above, larger net primary productivity, in conjunction with colder and drier conditions after deforestation cause an increase in soil carbon large enough to produce a net decrease of atmospheric CO2. Our results reveal the complex interactions between soil carbon dynamics and other climate subsystems in the energy partition responses to land cover change.

  10. Morphological change in Newfoundland caribou: Effects of abundance and climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shane P. Mahoney

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The demographic and environmental influences on large mammal morphology are central questions in ecology. We investigated the effects of population abundance and climate on body size and number of male antler points for the La Poile and Middle Ridge caribou (Rangifer tarandus, L. 1758 herds, Newfoundland, Canada. Across 40 years and 20-fold changes in abundance, adult males and females exhibited diminished stature as indicated by jawbone size (diastema and total mandible length and the number of antler points at the time of harvest. Associations between jawbone size and population abundance at birth were consistently negative for both herds, both sexes, and all age classes. Large-scale climate patterns, as measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation in the winter prior to birth, were also negatively associated with jawbone size. Declines in male antler size, as measured by the number of antler points, were not well predicted by either abundance or climate, suggesting other factors (e.g., current, rather than latent, foraging conditions may be involved. We conclude that these morphological changes indicate competition for food resources.

  11. Simulation of Effects of Land Use Change on Climate in China by a Regional Climate Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高学杰; 罗勇; 林万涛; 赵宗慈; FilippoGIORGI

    2003-01-01

    Climate effects of land use change in China as simulated by a regional climate model (RegCM2)are investigated. The model is nested in one-way mode within a global coupled atmosphere-ocean model(CSIRO R21L9 AOGCM). Two multi-year simulations, one with current land use and the other with potential vegetation cover, are conducted. Statistically significant changes of precipitation, surface air temperature, and daily maximum and daily minimum temperature are analyzed based on the difference between the two simulations. The simulated effects of land use change over China include a decrease of mean annual precipitation over Northwest China, a region with a prevalence of arid and semi-arid areas;an increase of mean annual surfaoe air temperature over some areas; and a decrease of temperature along coastal areas. Summer mean daily maximum temperature increases in many locations, while winter mean daily minimum temperature decreases in East China and increases in Northwest China. The upper soil moisture decreases significantly across China. The results indicate that the same land use change may cause different climate effects in different regions depending on the surrounding environment and climate characteristics.

  12. MODELING THE EFFECTS OF ANTHROPOGENIC SULFATE IN CLIMATE CHANGE BY USING A REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高学杰; 林一骅; 赵宗慈

    2003-01-01

    Effects of aerosol with focus on the direct climate effect of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol under 2×CO2 condition were investigated by introducing aerosol distribution into the latest version of RegCM2. Two experiments, first run(2×CO2 + 0 aerosol concentration) and second run (2×CO2 + aerosol distribution), were made for 5 years respectively. Preliminary analysis shows that the direct climate effect of aerosol might cause a decrease of surface air temperature.The decrease might be larger in winter and in South China. The regional-averaged monthly precipitation might also decrease in most of the months due to the effect. The annual mean change of precipitation might be a decrease in East and an increase in West China. But the changes of both temperature and precipitation simulated were much smaller as compared to the greenhouse effect.

  13. Nitrogen cycling in heathland ecosystems and effects of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andresen, Louise Christoffersen

    decomposition for both species. In warmed plots an early senescence was observed with effects on green Deschampsia biomass, on Deschampsia root nitrogen concentration and on acquisition of 15N from glycine. In this thesis, experiments using the stable isotopes 15N and 13C as tracers of ammonium and amino acid...... of climate change treatment. Additionally, top soil net mineralization, immobilization and leaf litter decomposition was investigated through the winter half year separately below Calluna and Deschampsia plants, and acquisition of organic nitrogen in plants and soil microorganisms was assessed. After one...

  14. Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sale, Michael J. [M.J. Sale and Associates, Hanson, MA (United States); Shih-Chieh, Kao [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Ashfaq, Moetasim [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Kaiser, Dale P. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Martinez, Rocio [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Webb, Cindy [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Wei, Yaxing [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2012-10-01

    As directed by Congress in Section 9505 of the SECURE Water Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-11), the US Department of Energy (DOE), in consultation with the federal Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs) and other federal agencies, including federal dam owners, has prepared a comprehensive assessment examining the effects of climate change on water available for hydropower at federal facilities and on the marketing of power from these federal facilities. This Oak Ridge National Laboratory report, referred to as the “9505 Assessment,” describes the technical basis for the report to Congress that was called for in the SECURE Water Act.

  15. Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower. Report to Congress

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2013-08-01

    This is a formal Department of Energy report to Congress. It outlines the findings of an assessment directed by Congress in Section 9505 of the SECURE Water Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-11), the US Department of Energy (DOE), in consultation with the federal Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs) and other federal agencies, including federal dam owners, has prepared a comprehensive assessment examining the effects of climate change on water available for hydropower at federal facilities and on the marketing of power from these federal facilities.

  16. Climate Change: Good for Us?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oblak, Jackie

    2000-01-01

    Presents an activity with the objective of encouraging students to think about the effects of climate change. Explains background information on dependence to climate and discuses whether climate change is important. Provides information for the activity, extensions, and evaluation. (YDS)

  17. Derivation of climate elasticity of runoff to assess the effects of climate change on annual runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hanbo; Yang, Dawen

    2011-07-01

    Climate elasticity of runoff is an important indicator for evaluating the effects of climate change on runoff. Consequently, this paper proposes an analytical derivation of climate elasticity. Based on the mean annual water-energy balance equation, two dimensionless numbers (the elasticities of runoff to precipitation and potential evaporation) were derived. Combining the first-order differential of the Penman equation, the elasticities of runoff to precipitation, net radiation, air temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity were derived to separate the contributions of different climatic variables. The case study was carried out in the Futuo River catchment in the Hai River basin, as well as in 89 catchments of the Hai River and the Yellow River basins of China. Based on the mean annual of climatic variables, the climate elasticity in the Futuo River basin was estimated as follows: precipitation elasticity ?, net radiation elasticity ?, air temperature elasticity ?, wind speed elasticity ?, and relative humidity elasticity ?. In this catchment, precipitation decrease was mainly responsible for runoff decline, and wind speed decline had the second greatest effect on runoff. In the 89 catchments of the Hai River and the Yellow River basins of China, climate elasticity was estimated as follows: ? ranging from 1.6 to 3.9, ? ranging from -1.9 to -0.3, ? ranging from -0.11 to -0.02°C-1, ? ranging from -0.8 to -0.1, and ? ranging from 0.2 to 1.9. Additional analysis shows that climate elasticity was sensitive to catchment characteristics.

  18. Climatic change effects on agriculture. A future scenario; Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die Landwirtschaft. Ein Zukunftsszenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Busch, Udo [Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach (Germany). Abt. Agrarmeteorologie

    2014-07-01

    The contribution on the effect of the climatic change on agriculture covers the topics meteorology - agriculture, modeling of the climate, observation of projected changes - temperature, precipitation and extreme weather conditions; effects of the climatic change on selected agro-meteorological parameters in agriculture - surface temperature, shift of the growing period, corn and other energy plants for biogas production, droughts.

  19. Effects of the climate change in the hydrologic cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arreguin Cortés, F.; López Pérez, M.

    2010-03-01

    Among the different effects resulting from the Climate Change around the world related to the water cycle those that account more are the drought and the flooding. Also the water supply sources is expected to diminished or polluted, wetlands tend to disappear and aquatic environments degrade, population is expected to be displaced because of the increase in sea level in deltaic zones and a lowering in health standards related to water diseases due to extreme meteorological phenomena and new climatic conditions. That the climate has changed in México is a fact and its features are the increase in seasonal temperature (winter and summer) as well as a reduction in summer precipitation in central and northern Mexico coupled to an increase in winter in the northwestern regions. More frequent severe storms in different Mexican regions (southeastern and central Mexico) and in urban areas like Mexico City and the gradual reduction in the water flowing in rivers are also evidence of this change. The National Water Commission has developed studies using maximum and minimum temperature and daily precipitation analysis from a new data base called Maya v1 which accounts for a regular network that covers the entire country. Also coastal aquifer studies, hurricane strikes incidence and identification of specific areas in water basins with major vulnerability (closely related to urban and rural settlements invading floodplains and water courses) are underway. Some studies and actions that need to be developed and taken are indicated and an example of coordinated work is shown. In addition a set of adaptation measures to take according to the regional situation is described. Such measures should focus on the present situation as well as for the future and need to be studied and foreseen now. If such measures are quickly taken in those vulnerable areas the costs they represent will be less compared with the costs of the damages due to the presence of the hydrometeorological

  20. Health Effects of Climate Change (Environmental Health Student Portal)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... in new places. In areas hit very hard, global warming can affect the social structure and economy, too. Did you know ? Climate change may increase the risk of diseases spread by mosquitoes and other insects. ...

  1. Climate Change in Prehistory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burroughs, William James

    2005-06-01

    How did humankind deal with the extreme challenges of the last Ice Age? How have the relatively benign post-Ice Age conditions affected the evolution and spread of humanity across the globe? By setting our genetic history in the context of climate change during prehistory, the origin of many features of our modern world are identified and presented in this illuminating book. It reviews the aspects of our physiology and intellectual development that have been influenced by climatic factors, and how features of our lives - diet, language and the domestication of animals - are also the product of the climate in which we evolved. In short: climate change in prehistory has in many ways made us what we are today. Climate Change in Prehistory weaves together studies of the climate with anthropological, archaeological and historical studies, and will fascinate all those interested in the effects of climate on human development and history.

  2. Scenarios for effective climate change adaptation in Dutch social housing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roders, M.J.; Straub, A.

    2014-01-01

    Housing managers are constantly confronted with the changing demands that their building stock has to comply with. One of the change agents is the changing climate, caused primarily by human induced greenhouse gases. Though, even if the emissions of all these gases could now be put to a hold, the pr

  3. Effects of changes in climate on landscape and regional processes, and feedbacks to the climate system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callaghan, Terry V; Björn, Lars Olof; Chernov, Yuri; Chapin, Terry; Christensen, Torben R; Huntley, Brian; Ims, Rolf A; Johansson, Margareta; Jolly, Dyanna; Jonasson, Sven; Matveyeva, Nadya; Panikov, Nicolai; Oechel, Walter; Shaver, Gus; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Sitch, Stephen

    2004-11-01

    Biological and physical processes in the Arctic system operate at various temporal and spatial scales to impact large-scale feedbacks and interactions with the earth system. There are four main potential feedback mechanisms between the impacts of climate change on the Arctic and the global climate system: albedo, greenhouse gas emissions or uptake by ecosystems, greenhouse gas emissions from methane hydrates, and increased freshwater fluxes that could affect the thermohaline circulation. All these feedbacks are controlled to some extent by changes in ecosystem distribution and character and particularly by large-scale movement of vegetation zones. Indications from a few, full annual measurements of CO2 fluxes are that currently the source areas exceed sink areas in geographical distribution. The little available information on CH4 sources indicates that emissions at the landscape level are of great importance for the total greenhouse balance of the circumpolar North. Energy and water balances of Arctic landscapes are also important feedback mechanisms in a changing climate. Increasing density and spatial expansion of vegetation will cause a lowering of the albedo and more energy to be absorbed on the ground. This effect is likely to exceed the negative feedback of increased C sequestration in greater primary productivity resulting from the displacements of areas of polar desert by tundra, and areas of tundra by forest. The degradation of permafrost has complex consequences for trace gas dynamics. In areas of discontinuous permafrost, warming, will lead to a complete loss of the permafrost. Depending on local hydrological conditions this may in turn lead to a wetting or drying of the environment with subsequent implications for greenhouse gas fluxes. Overall, the complex interactions between processes contributing to feedbacks, variability over time and space in these processes, and insufficient data have generated considerable uncertainties in estimating the net

  4. Effects of climate change process on comfort climate of Shiraz station

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shakoor, A.; Roshan, G.R.; Khoshakhlagh, F.; Hejazizadeh, Z. [Islamic Azad Univ., Larestan (Iran)

    2008-09-30

    Dwelling in cities and city development together with quick increase of population and development of industrial activites with unplanned consumption of fossil fuels have intensively increased pollution with consequences whcih will cause different diseases in short periods, and will lead to some climatic oscillations and its environmental effects such as the change of desirable periods in view of comfort climate in long period. The objective point of view of this reasearch was to study the climate in Shiraz and its effect on comfort conditions for human physiology. In this research, using 55-year cliamtic data (1952-2006), the relative humidity and temperature through the application of Guni comfort climatic model, the desirable months for the comfort of human physiology have been determined in the five 11-year periods and the linear process of these changes have been estimated for the next 11 years. The results of this research show that the temperature trend in Shiraz station is increasing and most months have heating process in a way that it is expected in the future the cold months will have more favorable conditions for physiological comfort of residents and correspondingly in the warm months, heating tension will have remarkable increase.

  5. Climate Change Effects: Issues for International and US National Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-07-01

    scientific understanding of global climate and other environmental and disaster-related phenomena , and consider the implications for both fundamental...Conference “From Bali to Poznan – New Issues, New Challenges.” Conference 12/14/07 H.R. 1585: 2008 Defense Authorization Bill passed House and...Article 12/03/07- 12/14/07 Thirteenth Session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bali . - Closing

  6. Climate change effects on international stability : a white paper.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murphy, Kathryn; Taylor, Mark A.; Fujii, Joy; Malczynski, Leonard A.; McNamara, Laura A.; Reinert, Rhonda K.; Sprigg, James A.; Backus, George A.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

    2004-12-01

    This white paper represents a summary of work intended to lay the foundation for development of a climatological/agent model of climate-induced conflict. The paper combines several loosely-coupled efforts and is the final report for a four-month late-start Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project funded by the Advanced Concepts Group (ACG). The project involved contributions by many participants having diverse areas of expertise, with the common goal of learning how to tie together the physical and human causes and consequences of climate change. We performed a review of relevant literature on conflict arising from environmental scarcity. Rather than simply reviewing the previous work, we actively collected data from the referenced sources, reproduced some of the work, and explored alternative models. We used the unfolding crisis in Darfur (western Sudan) as a case study of conflict related to or triggered by climate change, and as an exercise for developing a preliminary concept map. We also outlined a plan for implementing agents in a climate model and defined a logical progression toward the ultimate goal of running both types of models simultaneously in a two-way feedback mode, where the behavior of agents influences the climate and climate change affects the agents. Finally, we offer some ''lessons learned'' in attempting to keep a diverse and geographically dispersed group working together by using Web-based collaborative tools.

  7. The Effect of Tide on the Global Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Xuexiang; CHEN Zhen; CHEN Dianyou; Qiao Qiyuan

    2002-01-01

    The differential rotation between the solid and fluid spheres caused by tidal force could explain the 1500 to 1800-year cycle of the world's temperature. Strong tide increases the vertical and horizontal mixing of water in the oceans, drawing the cold Pacific water from the depths to the surface and the warm water from the west to the east, where it cools or warms the atmosphere above, absorbs or releases CO2 to decrease or increase greenhouse effect and to make La Nina or El Nino occur in the global. The moon's declination and obliquity of the ecliptic affect the tidal intensity. The exchange of tidal energy and tide-generating force caused by the sun, moon and major planets makes the earth's layers rotate in different speeds. The differenti-al rotation between solid and fluid of the earth is the basic reason for El Nino and global climate change.

  8. Come rain or shine? Public expectation on local weather change and differential effects on climate change attitude.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Alex Y; Jim, C Y

    2015-11-01

    Tailored messages are instrumental to climate change communication. Information about the global threat can be 'localised' by demonstrating its linkage with local events. This research ascertains the relationship between climate change attitude and perception of local weather, based on a survey involving 800 Hong Kong citizens. Results indicate that concerns about climate change increase with expectations about the likelihood and impacts of local weather change. Climate change believers attend to all three types of adverse weather events, namely, temperature rises, tropical cyclones and prolonged rains. Climate scepticism, however, is not associated with expectation about prolonged rains. Differential spatial orientations are a possible reason. Global climate change is an unprecedented and distant threat, whereas local rain is a more familiar and localised weather event. Global climate change should be articulated in terms that respect local concerns. Localised framing may be particularly effective for engaging individuals holding positive views about climate change science.

  9. Effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on biogeochemical cycling: interactions and feedbacks

    OpenAIRE

    Zepp, R. G.; D. J. Erickson; Paul, N.D.; Sulzberger, B.

    2011-01-01

    Solar UV radiation, climate and other drivers of global change are undergoing significant changes and models forecast that these changes will continue for the remainder of this century. Here we assess the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles and the interactions of these effects with climate change, including feedbacks on climate. Such interactions occur in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. While there is significant uncertainty in the quantification of these effects,...

  10. Effects of climate change on plant population growth rate and community composition change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Xiao-Yu; Chen, Bao-Ming; Liu, Gang; Zhou, Ting; Jia, Xiao-Rong; Peng, Shao-Lin

    2015-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on forest community composition are still not well known. Although directional trends in climate change and community composition change were reported in recent years, further quantitative analyses are urgently needed. Previous studies focused on measuring population growth rates in a single time period, neglecting the development of the populations. Here we aimed to compose a method for calculating the community composition change, and to testify the impacts of climate change on community composition change within a relatively short period (several decades) based on long-term monitoring data from two plots-Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve, China (DBR) and Barro Colorado Island, Panama (BCI)-that are located in tropical and subtropical regions. We proposed a relatively more concise index, Slnλ, which refers to an overall population growth rate based on the dominant species in a community. The results indicated that the population growth rate of a majority of populations has decreased over the past few decades. This decrease was mainly caused by population development. The increasing temperature had a positive effect on population growth rates and community change rates. Our results promote understanding and explaining variations in population growth rates and community composition rates, and are helpful to predict population dynamics and population responses to climate change.

  11. Effects of climate change on plant population growth rate and community composition change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Yu Chang

    Full Text Available The impacts of climate change on forest community composition are still not well known. Although directional trends in climate change and community composition change were reported in recent years, further quantitative analyses are urgently needed. Previous studies focused on measuring population growth rates in a single time period, neglecting the development of the populations. Here we aimed to compose a method for calculating the community composition change, and to testify the impacts of climate change on community composition change within a relatively short period (several decades based on long-term monitoring data from two plots-Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve, China (DBR and Barro Colorado Island, Panama (BCI-that are located in tropical and subtropical regions. We proposed a relatively more concise index, Slnλ, which refers to an overall population growth rate based on the dominant species in a community. The results indicated that the population growth rate of a majority of populations has decreased over the past few decades. This decrease was mainly caused by population development. The increasing temperature had a positive effect on population growth rates and community change rates. Our results promote understanding and explaining variations in population growth rates and community composition rates, and are helpful to predict population dynamics and population responses to climate change.

  12. Cuba confronts climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Gisela; Clark, Ismael

    2015-04-01

    Among environmental problems, climate change presents the greatest challenges to developing countries, especially island nations. Changes in climate and the resulting effects on human health call for examination of the interactions between environmental and social factors. Important in Cuba's case are soil conditions, food availability, disease burden, ecological changes, extreme weather events, water quality and rising sea levels, all in conjunction with a range of social, cultural, economic and demographic conditions.

  13. Olivine and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuiling, R.D.

    2012-01-01

    The greenhouse effect, thanks mainly to the water vapor in our atmosphere, has created a livable climate on Earth. Climate change, however, may potentially have dire consequences. It is generally assumed that the rise in CO2 levels in the atmosphere is the main culprit, although several other greenh

  14. Identifying Effective Strategies for Climate Change Education: The Coastal Areas Climate Change Education (CACCE) Partnership Audiences and Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, J. G.; Feldman, A.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Gilbes, F.; Stone, D.; Plank, L.; Reynolds, C. J.

    2011-12-01

    Many past educational initiatives focused on global climate change have foundered on public skepticism and disbelief. Some key reasons for these past failures can be drawn directly from recognized best practices in STEM education - specifically, the necessity to help learners connect new knowledge with their own experiences and perspectives, and the need to create linkages with issues or concerns that are both important for and relevant to the audiences to be educated. The Coastal Areas Climate Change Education (CACCE) partnership has sought to follow these tenets as guiding principles in identifying critical audiences and developing new strategies for educating the public living in the low-lying coastal areas of Florida and the Caribbean on the realities, risks, and adaptation and mitigation strategies for dealing with the regional impacts of global climate change. CACCE is currently focused on three key learner audiences: a) The formal education spectrum, targeting K-12 curricula through middle school marine science courses, and student and educator audiences through coursework and participatory research strategies engaging participants in a range of climate-related investigations. b) Informal science educators and outlets, in particular aquaria and nature centers, as an avenue toward K-12 teacher professional development as well as for public education. c) Regional planning, regulatory and business professionals focused on the built environment along the coasts, many of whom require continuing education to maintain licensing and/or other professional certifications. Our current activities are focused on bringing together an effective set of educational, public- and private-sector partners to target the varied needs of these audiences in Florida and the U.S. Caribbean, and tailoring an educational plan aimed at these stakeholder audiences that starts with the regionally and topically relevant impacts of climate change, and strategies for effective adaptation and

  15. Climate change effects on phosphorus uptake by stream bed sediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change will likely increase growing season temperatures and the ratio of nitrogen (N) to phosphorus (P) loss from land to water. However, it is unknown how these factors influence the uptake of P or likely P-limitation of algal growth in streams. We sought to evaluate differences in biotic a...

  16. Source Effects and Plausibility Judgments When Reading about Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardi, Doug; Seyranian, Viviane; Sinatra, Gale M.

    2014-01-01

    Gaps between what scientists and laypeople find plausible may act as a barrier to learning complex and/or controversial socioscientific concepts. For example, individuals may consider scientific explanations that human activities are causing current climate change as implausible. This plausibility judgment may be due-in part-to individuals'…

  17. The greenhouse effect: will we change the climate?; L'effet de serre: allons-nous changer le climat?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Le Treut, H

    2004-07-01

    This book presents the great climate factors, the changes resulting from the greenhouse effect and the corresponding human factors part, the atmosphere chemical composition and the biological and geo-political risks bound to the climatic changes. (A.L.B.)

  18. Effects of the climate change on regional ozone dry deposition

    OpenAIRE

    Kolozsi-Komjáthy, E.; Mészáros, R.; Lagzi, I.

    2011-01-01

    This impact study investigates connections between the regional climate change and the tropospheric ozone deposition over different vegetations in Hungary due to the possible changes of atmospheric and environmental properties. The spatial and temporal variability of the dry deposition velocity of ozone was estimated for different time periods (1961–1990 for reference period and two future scenarios: 2021–2050 and 2071–2100). Simulations were performed with...

  19. Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    According to the National Academy of Sciences in American,the Earth's surface temperature has risen by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated warming during the past two decades. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.Human activities have altered the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases-primarily carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The heat-trapping property of these gases is undisputed although uncertainties exist about exactly how earth's climate responds to them.

  20. An energy balance model of carbon's effect on climate change

    CERN Document Server

    Benney, Lucas

    2015-01-01

    Due to climate change, the interest of studying our climatic system using mathematical modeling has become tremendous in recent years. One well-known model is Budyko's system, which represents the coupled evolution of two variables, the ice-line and the average earth surface temperature. The system depends on natural parameters, such as the earth albedo, and the amount A of carbon in the atmosphere. We introduce a 3-dimensional extension of this model in which we regard A as the third coupled variable of the system. We analyze the phase space and dependence on parameters, looking for Hopf bifurcations and the birth of cycling behavior. We interpret the cycles as climatic oscillations triggered by the sensitivity in our regulation of carbon emissions at extreme temperatures.

  1. Landscape changes have greater effects than climate changes on six insect pests in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zihua; Sandhu, Hardev S; Ouyang, Fang; Ge, Feng

    2016-06-01

    In recent years, global changes are the major causes of frequent, widespread outbreaks of pests in mosaic landscapes, which have received substantial attention worldwide. We collected data on global changes (landscape and climate) and economic damage caused by six main insect pests during 1951-2010 in China. Landscape changes had significant effects on all six insect pests. Pest damage increased significantly with increasing arable land area in agricultural landscapes. However, climate changes had no effect on damage caused by pests, except for the rice leaf roller (Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee) and armyworm (Mythimna separate (Walker)), which caused less damage to crops with increasing mean temperature. Our results indicate that there is slight evidence of possible offset effects of climate changes on the increasing damage from these two agricultural pests. Landscape changes have caused serious outbreaks of several species, which suggests the possibility of the use of landscape design for the control of pest populations through habitat rearrangement. Landscape manipulation may be used as a green method to achieve sustainable pest management with minimal use of insecticides and herbicides.

  2. Effects of Climate and Climate Change on Vectors and Vector-Borne Diseases: Ticks Are Different.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogden, Nick H; Lindsay, L Robbin

    2016-08-01

    There has been considerable debate as to whether global risk from vector-borne diseases will be impacted by climate change. This has focussed on important mosquito-borne diseases that are transmitted by the vectors from infected to uninfected humans. However, this debate has mostly ignored the biological diversity of vectors and vector-borne diseases. Here, we review how climate and climate change may impact those most divergent of arthropod disease vector groups: multivoltine insects and hard-bodied (ixodid) ticks. We contrast features of the life cycles and behaviour of these arthropods, and how weather, climate, and climate change may have very different impacts on the spatiotemporal occurrence and abundance of vectors, and the pathogens they transmit.

  3. The effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skjøth, Carsten Ambelas; Geels, Camilla

    2013-01-01

    to a standard Danish pig stable with 1000 animals and display how emissions from this source would vary geographically throughout central and northern Europe and from year to year. In view of future climate changes, we also evaluate the potential future changes in emission by including temperature projections...... from an ensemble of climate models. The results point towards four overall issues. (1) Emissions can easily vary by 20% for different geographical locations within a country due to overall variations in climate. The largest uncertainties are seen for large countries such as the UK, Germany and France....... (2) Annual variations in overall climate can at specific locations cause uncertainties in the range of 20 %. (3) Climate change may increase emissions by 0–40% in central to northern Europe. (4) Gradients in existing emission inventories that are seen between neighbour countries (e.g. between the UK...

  4. Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian;

    2016-01-01

    Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes...... use scenarios. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared...... to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice...

  5. Effects of solar UV and climate change on materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrady, A L; Hamid, H; Torikai, A

    2011-02-01

    Increased solar ultraviolet radiation (UV) reaches the surface of the Earth as a consequence of a depleted stratospheric ozone layer and changes in factors such as cloud cover, land-use patterns and aerosols. Climate change is expected to result in a 1.1-6.4 °C increase in average temperature by the end of this century, depending on location. Increased levels of UV radiation, especially at high ambient temperatures, are well-known to accelerate the degradation of plastics, rubber and wood materials, thereby reducing their useful lifetimes in outdoor applications. Plastics used routinely outdoors are generally light-stabilized using chemical additives to ensure their useful lifetimes. Wood products are coated for resistance to UV radiation, since photodamage results in enhanced water-susceptibility and their consequent biodegradation under outdoor exposure. The increased damage to materials due to an increased UV-B (280-315 nm) component in solar radiation reaching the Earth likely can be countered using light-stabilization technologies, surface coatings or, in most instances, by substituting the materials in question with greater UV radiation-resistant materials. However, even if these options could be used with all common materials affected, they will invariably result in higher costs. Reliable estimates of the incremental costs involved depend on the anticipated damage and the effectiveness of mitigation strategies employed. We summarize and assess recent findings on light-induced damage to plastic materials, including wood-plastics composites and nanocomposites. The combined effect of increased UV-B radiation and ambient temperature is of special interest, since these two factors represent particularly harsh environmental conditions for most materials. Advances in approaches to light stabilization of materials are also assessed.

  6. Climate change and skin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balato, N; Ayala, F; Megna, M; Balato, A; Patruno, C

    2013-02-01

    Global climate appears to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Climate change can be caused by several factors that include variations in solar radiation received by earth, oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions, as well as human-induced alterations of the natural world. Many human activities, such as the use of fossil fuel and the consequent accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, land consumption, deforestation, industrial processes, as well as some agriculture practices are contributing to global climate change. Indeed, many authors have reported on the current trend towards global warming (average surface temperature has augmented by 0.6 °C over the past 100 years), decreased precipitation, atmospheric humidity changes, and global rise in extreme climatic events. The magnitude and cause of these changes and their impact on human activity have become important matters of debate worldwide, representing climate change as one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. Although many articles have been written based on observations and various predictive models of how climate change could affect social, economic and health systems, only few studies exist about the effects of this change on skin physiology and diseases. However, the skin is the most exposed organ to environment; therefore, cutaneous diseases are inclined to have a high sensitivity to climate. For example, global warming, deforestation and changes in precipitation have been linked to variations in the geographical distribution of vectors of some infectious diseases (leishmaniasis, lyme disease, etc) by changing their spread, whereas warm and humid environment can also encourage the colonization of the skin by bacteria and fungi. The present review focuses on the wide and complex relationship between climate change and dermatology, showing the numerous factors that are contributing to modify the incidence and the clinical pattern of many

  7. In Brief: Report details climate change effects on cultural sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zielinski, Sarah

    2007-04-01

    A new report from UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization) details how 26 World Heritage sites could be affected by coming climate changes. The 26 examples, which are meant to be representative of the range of threats to the 830 sites inscribed in the World Heritage List, are divided into five types: archaeological sites, glaciers, historic cities and settlements, marine biodiversity, and terrestrial biodiversity. Some of the examples include the Great Barrier Reef, which is expected to experience more frequent episodes of coral bleaching; Timbuktu in Mali, threatened by desertification; and the Chavín Archaeological Site in the Peruvian Central Andes, one of the earliest and best-known pre-Columbian sites, which could be affected by glacier melting and flooding. The report, ``Case Studies on Climate Change and World Heritage,'' is available at http://whc.unesco.org/documents/publi_climatechange.pdf

  8. Climate change and compensation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint; Flanagan, Tine Bech

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a case for compensation of actual harm from climate change in the poorest countries. First, it is shown that climate change threatens to reverse the fight to eradicate poverty. Secondly, it is shown how the problems raised in the literature for compensation to some extent...... are based on misconceptions and do not apply to compensation of present actual harm. Finally, two arguments are presented to the effect that, in so far as developed countries accept a major commitment to mitigate climate change, they should also accept a commitment to address or compensate actual harm from...... in the future, then there is also moral reason to address these harms if they materialize now. We argue that these principles are applicable to climate change, and that given the commitment of wealthy countries to a "common but differentiated responsibility," they lead to a commitment to address or compensate...

  9. Climate change and compensation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint; Flanagan, Tine Bech

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a case for compensation of actual harm from climate change in the poorest countries. First, it is shown that climate change threatens to reverse the fight to eradicate poverty. Secondly, it is shown how the problems raised in the literature for compensation to some extent...... are based on misconceptions and do not apply to compensation of present actual harm. Finally, two arguments are presented to the effect that, in so far as developed countries accept a major commitment to mitigate climate change, they should also accept a commitment to address or compensate actual harm from...... climate change. The first argument appeals to the principle that if it is an injustice to cause risk of incurring harm in the future, then it is also an injustice to cause a similar harm now. The second argument appeals to the principle that if there is moral reason to reduce the risk of specific harms...

  10. Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hudecz, Adriána

    -operation and research into the common problems of the Northern Periphery. This report is an output of the ROADEX “Implementing Accessibility” project (2009-2012). It gives a summary of the results of research into adaptation measures to combat climate change effects on low volume roads in the Northern Periphery....... The research was carried out between January 2000 and March 2012. One of the biggest challenges that mankind has to face is the prospect of climate change resulting from emissions of greenhouse gases. These gases trap energy in the atmosphere and cause global surface temperatures to rise. This warming in turn...... causes changes in other climatic variables such as rainfall, humidity and wind speed that impact on the functioning of infrastructure such road networks. This paper discusses the climate changes predicted by the world’s meteorological organisations and considers how these may impact on the public...

  11. Deforestation Induced Climate Change: Effects of Spatial Scale

    OpenAIRE

    Longobardi, Patrick; Montenegro, Alvaro; Beltrami, Hugo; Eby, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Deforestation is associated with increased atmospheric CO2 and alterations to the surface energy and mass balances that can lead to local and global climate changes. Previous modelling studies show that the global surface air temperature (SAT) response to deforestation depends on latitude, with most simulations showing that high latitude deforestation results in cooling, low latitude deforestation causes warming and that the mid latitude response is mixed. These earlier conclusions are based ...

  12. Potential reciprocal effect between land use / land cover change and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daham, Afrah; Han, Dawei; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel

    2016-04-01

    Land use/land cover (LULC) activity influences climate change and one way to explore climate change is to analyse the change in LULC patterns. Modelling the Spatio-temporal pattern of LULC change requires the use of satellite remote sensing data and aerial photographs with different pre-processing steps. The aim of this research is to analyse the reciprocal effects of LUCC (Land Use and Cover Change) and the climate change on each other in the study area which covers part of Bristol, South Gloucestershire, Bath and Somerset in England for the period (1975-2015). LUCC is assessed using remote sensing data. Three sets of remotely sensed data, LanSAT-1 Multispectral Scanner (MSS) data obtained in (1975 and 1976), LanSAT-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) data obtained in (1984 and 1997), and LandSAT-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) acquired in (2003 and 2015), with a time span of forty years were used in the study. One of the most common problems in the satellite images is the presence of cloud covers. In this study, the cloud cover problem is handled using a novel algorithm, which is capable of reducing the cloud coverage in the classified images significantly. This study also examines a suite of possible photogrammetry techniques applicable to detect the change in LULC. At the moment photogrammertic techniques are used to derive the ground truth for supervised classification from the high resolution aerial photos which were provided by Ordnance Survey (contract number: 240215) and global mapper for the years in (2001 and 2014). After obtaining the classified images almost free of clouds, accuracy assessment is implemented with the derived classified images using confusion matrix at some ground truth points. Eight classes (Improved grassland, Built up areas and gardens, Arable and horticulture, Broad-leaved / mixed woodland, Coniferous woodland, Oceanic seas, Standing open water and reservoir, and Mountain; heath; bog) have been classified in the chosen study area. Also

  13. Modelling the effects of climate change on the energy system-A case study of Norway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seljom, Pernille, E-mail: Pernille.Seljom@ife.no [Department of Energy Systems, Institute of Energy Technology (IFE), PO Box 40, NO-2027 Kjeller (Norway); Rosenberg, Eva; Fidje, Audun [Department of Energy Systems, Institute of Energy Technology (IFE), PO Box 40, NO-2027 Kjeller (Norway); Haugen, Jan Erik [Norwegian Meteorological Institute, PO Box 43 Blindern, NO-0313 Oslo (Norway); Meir, Michaela; Rekstad, John [Department of Physics, University of Oslo (UiO), PO Box 1072 Blindern, NO-0316 Oslo (Norway); Jarlset, Thore [Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE), PO Box 5091 Majorstua, NO-0301 Oslo (Norway)

    2011-11-15

    The overall objective of this work is to identify the effects of climate change on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. Changes in the future wind- and hydro-power resource potential, and changes in the heating and cooling demand are analysed to map the effects of climate change. The impact of climate change is evaluated with an energy system model, the MARKAL Norway model, to analyse the future cost optimal energy system. Ten climate experiments, based on five different global models and six emission scenarios, are used to cover the range of possible future climate scenarios and of these three experiments are used for detailed analyses. This study indicate that in Norway, climate change will reduce the heating demand, increase the cooling demand, have a limited impact on the wind power potential, and increase the hydro-power potential. The reduction of heating demand will be significantly higher than the increase of cooling demand, and thus the possible total direct consequence of climate change will be reduced energy system costs and lower electricity production costs. The investments in offshore wind and tidal power will be reduced and electric based vehicles will be profitable earlier. - Highlights: > Climate change will make an impact on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. > An impact is lower Norwegian electricity production costs and increased electricity export. > Climate change gives earlier profitable investments in electric based vehicles. > Climate change reduces investments in offshore wind and tidal power.

  14. Climate Change Schools Project...

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinzey, Krista

    2010-01-01

    This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools Project…

  15. Climate Change Schools Project...

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinzey, Krista

    2010-01-01

    This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools…

  16. Climate Justice in Rural Southeastern United States: A Review of Climate Change Impacts and Effects on Human Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutierrez, Kristie S; LePrevost, Catherine E

    2016-02-03

    Climate justice is a local, national, and global movement to protect at-risk populations who are disproportionately affected by climate change. The social context for this review is the Southeastern region of the United States, which is particularly susceptible to climate change because of the geography of the area and the vulnerabilities of the inhabiting populations. Negative human health effects on variable and vulnerable populations within the Southeast region due to changing climate are concerning, as health threats are not expected to produce parallel effects among all individuals. Vulnerable communities, such as communities of color, indigenous people, the geographically isolated, and those who are socioeconomically disadvantaged and already experiencing poor environmental quality, are least able to respond and adapt to climate change. Focusing on vulnerable populations in the Southeastern United States, this review is a synthesis of the recent (2010 to 2015) literature-base on the health effects connected to climate change. This review also addresses local and regional mitigation and adaptation strategies for citizens and leaders to combat direct and indirect human health effects related to a changing climate.

  17. Climate Justice in Rural Southeastern United States: A Review of Climate Change Impacts and Effects on Human Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristie S. Gutierrez

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Climate justice is a local, national, and global movement to protect at-risk populations who are disproportionately affected by climate change. The social context for this review is the Southeastern region of the United States, which is particularly susceptible to climate change because of the geography of the area and the vulnerabilities of the inhabiting populations. Negative human health effects on variable and vulnerable populations within the Southeast region due to changing climate are concerning, as health threats are not expected to produce parallel effects among all individuals. Vulnerable communities, such as communities of color, indigenous people, the geographically isolated, and those who are socioeconomically disadvantaged and already experiencing poor environmental quality, are least able to respond and adapt to climate change. Focusing on vulnerable populations in the Southeastern United States, this review is a synthesis of the recent (2010 to 2015 literature-base on the health effects connected to climate change. This review also addresses local and regional mitigation and adaptation strategies for citizens and leaders to combat direct and indirect human health effects related to a changing climate.

  18. Soil ecosystem functioning under climate change: plant species and community effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kardol, Paul [ORNL; Cregger, Melissa [ORNL; Campany, Courtney E [ORNL; Classen, Aimee T [ORNL

    2010-01-01

    Feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change depend on soil ecosystem dynamics. Soil ecosystems can directly and indirectly respond to climate change. For example, warming directly alters microbial communities by increasing their activity. Climate change may also alter plant community composition, thus indirectly altering the microbial communities that feed on their inputs. To better understand how climate change may directly and indirectly alter soil ecosystem functioning, we investigated old-field plant community and soil ecosystem responses to single and combined effects of elevated [CO2], warming, and water availability. Specifically, we collected soils at the plot level (plant community soils), and beneath dominant plant species (plant-specific soils). We used microbial enzyme activities and soil nematodes as indicators for soil ecosystem functioning. Our study resulted in two main findings: 1) Overall, while there were some interactions, water, relative to increases in [CO2] and warming, had the largest impact on plant community composition, soil enzyme activities, and soil nematodes. Multiple climate change factors can interact to shape ecosystems, but in this case, those interactions were largely driven by changes in water availability. 2) Indirect effects of climate change, via changes in plant communities, had a significant impact on soil ecosystem functioning and this impact was not obvious when looking at plant community soils. Climate change effects on enzyme activities and soil nematode abundance and community structure strongly differed between plant community soils and plant-specific soils, but also within plant-specific soils. In sum, these results indicate that accurate assessments of climate change impacts on soil ecosystem functioning require incorporating the concurrent changes in plant function and plant community composition. Climate change-induced shifts in plant community composition will likely modify or counteract the direct

  19. Climate Change and Natural Disasters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Merkouris, Panos; Negri, Stefania; Maljean-Dubois, Sandrine

    2014-01-01

    Only 21 years ago, in 1992, the first ever convention on climate change, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was signed. The science behind studying climate change and its effects on the environment is not only mind-boggling but still in its infancy. It should come the

  20. Climate Change Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presents information, charts and graphs showing measured climate changes across 40 indicators related to greenhouse gases, weather and climate, oceans, snow and ice, heath and society, and ecosystems.

  1. CLIMATE CHANGE, Change International Negociations?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Xiaosheng

    2009-01-01

    @@ Climate change is one of key threats to human beings who have to deal with.According to Bali Action Plan released after the 2007 Bali Climate Talk held in Indonesia,the United Nations Framework on Climate Change(UNFCCC) has launched a two-year process to negotiate a post-2012 climate arrangement after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 and the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference will seal a final deal on post-2012 climate regime in December,2009.For this,the United Nation Chief Ban Ki Moon called 2009"the year ofclimate change".

  2. A Survey of African American Physicians on the Health Effects of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mona Sarfaty

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The U.S. National Climate Assessment concluded that climate change is harming the health of many Americans and identified people in some communities of color as particularly vulnerable to these effects. In Spring 2014, we surveyed members of the National Medical Association, a society of African American physicians who care for a disproportionate number of African American patients, to determine whether they were seeing the health effects of climate change in their practices; the response rate was 30% (n = 284. Over 86% of respondents indicated that climate change was relevant to direct patient care, and 61% that their own patients were already being harmed by climate change moderately or a great deal. The most commonly reported health effects were injuries from severe storms, floods, and wildfires (88%, increases in severity of chronic disease due to air pollution (88%, and allergic symptoms from prolonged exposure to plants or mold (80%. The majority of survey respondents support medical training, patient and public education regarding the impact of climate change on health, and advocacy by their professional society; nearly all respondents indicated that the US should invest in significant efforts to protect people from the health effects of climate change (88%, and to reduce the potential impacts of climate change (93%. These findings suggest that African American physicians are currently seeing the health impacts of climate change among their patients, and that they support a range of responses by the medical profession, and public policy makers, to prevent further harm.

  3. Potential effects of climate change on ecosystem distribution in Alberta

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schneider, R.R.; Farr, D.; Boutin, S. [Alberta Univ., Edmonton, AB (Canada). Dept. of Biological Sciences; Hamann, A.; Wang, X. [Alberta Univ., Edmonton, AB (Canada). Dept of Renewable Resources

    2009-05-15

    This paper proposed a method of extending the utility of bioclimatic envelope models for land use planning and adaptation under climate change. The trajectory of vegetation changes was set by the model, while the rate of transition was determined using a disturbance model. The method was used to explore potential changes to the distribution of ecosystems in Alberta under various climate and disturbance scenarios. The study showed that use of the disturbance model slowed the rate of ecosystem transition when compared with the results obtained from the bioclimatic envelope model alone. A northward shift of grasslands into large areas of existing parklands occurred over the simulation's 50-year time period. Between 12 and 21 per cent of Alberta's Boreal region was converted to parklands. Boreal transitions will initially occur in forests adjacent to current parklands and spread outwards. Fires over 100 km {sup 2} provided an indication of the anticipated size of potential transition patches. It was concluded that using a disturbance model to quantify transition logs can improve uncertainties in the parameter estimates of bioclimatic envelope models. 43 refs., 3 tabs., 3 figs.

  4. Parliamentary role and relationship in effectively addressing climate change issues - Swaziland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, R.

    2011-01-15

    Climate change is defined as any long-term and significant change in the expected patterns of a specific region's average weather for an appropriately significant period of time. It is the result of several factors, including Earth?s dynamic processes, external forces, and more recently, human activity. External factors that shape climate include such processes as variations in solar radiation, deviations in Earth's orbit, and variations in the level of greenhouse gas concentrations. Evidence of climatic change taken from a variety of sources can, in turn, be used to reconstruct past climates. Most climate evidence is inferred from changes in key climate indicators, including vegetation, ice cores, dendrochronology, sea-level change, and glacial geology. Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental, social, and economic threats facing the planet today. In developing countries, Swaziland included, climate change will likely have a significant impact on the livelihoods and living conditions of the poor. It is a particular threat to the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and progress in sustainable development in Sub-Saharan Africa. Increasing temperatures and shifting rain patterns across Africa reduce access to food and create effects that impact regions, farming systems, households, and individuals in varying ways. Additional global changes, including changed trade patterns and energy policies, have the potential to exacerbate the negative effects of climate change on some of these systems and groups.

  5. Climate effects of black carbon and the emission reduction for mitigating climate change /

    OpenAIRE

    Xu, Yangyang

    2014-01-01

    Black carbon (BC) aerosols are significant contributors to anthropogenic climate change and are considered as the second largest warming agent only after CO₂. To better quantify the present-day Asian BC aerosol forcing, in Chapter 2 we utilize both a top-down approach using ground -based and satellite observations, as well as a bottom-up approach using a latest global climate model. By comparing the observations with the model simulations, we show that the emission inventory over Asia used in...

  6. Climate change effects on lowland stream flood regimes and riparian rich fen vegetation communities in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thodsen, Hans; Baattrup-Pedersen, Annette; Andersen, Hans Estrup;

    2016-01-01

    to a hydrological model with the aim to predict climate driven changes in flooding regimes in lowland riparian areas. Our specific aims were to 1) predict effects of climate change on flood frequencies and magnitudes in riparian areas by using an ensemble of six climate models and 2) combine the obtained......There is growing awareness that an intensification of the hydrological cycle associated with climate change in many parts of the world will have profound implications for river ecosystem structure and functions. In the present study we link an ensemble of regional climate model projections...... predictions with the distribution of rich fen communities to explore whether these are likely to be subjected to increased flooding by a climate change induced increase in river runoff. We found that all regional climate models in the ensemble showed increases in mean annual runoff and that the increase...

  7. Climate Change Impacts and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Effects on U.S. Hydropower Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change will have potentially significant effects on hydropower generation due to changes in the magnitude and seasonality of river runoff and increases in reservoir evaporation. These physical impacts will in turn have economic consequences through both producer revenues ...

  8. Evaluating the effect of climate change on areal reduction factors using regional climate model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jingwan; Sharma, Ashish; Johnson, Fiona; Evans, Jason

    2015-09-01

    Areal reduction factors (ARFs) are commonly used to transform point design rainfall to represent the average design rainfall for a catchment area. While there has been considerable attention paid in the research and engineering communities to the likely changes in rainfall intensity in future climates, the issue of changes to design areal rainfall has been largely ignored. This paper investigates the impact of climate change on ARFs. A new methodology for estimating changes in ARFs is presented. This method is used to assess changes in ARFs in the greater Sydney region using a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM). ARFs under present (1990-2009) and future (2040-2059) climate conditions were derived and compared for annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) from 50% to 5% for durations ranging from 1 h to 120 h. The analysis shows two main trends in the future changes in ARFs. For the shortest duration events (1-h) the ARFs are found to increase which implies that these events will tend to have a larger spatial structure in the future than the current climate. In contrast, storms with durations between 6 and 72 h are likely to have decreased ARFs in the future, suggesting a more restricted spatial coverage of storms under a warming climate. The extent of the decrease varies with event frequency and catchment size. The largest decreases are found for large catchments and rare events. Although the results here are based on a single RCM and need to be confirmed in future work with multiple models, the framework that is proposed will be useful for future studies considering changes in the areal extent of rainfall extremes.

  9. Climate Changes around the world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kahl, J.

    2009-07-01

    This presentation addresses several important aspects of the climate changes that are occurring around the globe. the causes of climate change are first reviewed, with illustrations of orbital oscillations, the atmospheric greenhouse effect, and aerosol effects. Observed changes in climate are next reviewed, both thought many millenia and during the past century. Distinctions are made between global warming and regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Changes in the frequency of weather extremes, including heat waves and tropical storms, are also discussed. (Author)

  10. Effects of climatic changes on anisakid nematodes in polar regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rokicki, Jerzy

    2009-11-01

    Anisakid nematodes are common in Antarctic, sub-Antarctic, and Arctic areas. Current distributional knowledge of anisakids in the polar regions is reviewed. Climatic variables influence the occurrence and abundance of anisakids, directly influencing their free-living larval stages and also indirectly influencing their predominantly invertebrate (but also vertebrate) hosts. As these parasites can also be pathogenic for humans, the paucity of information available is a source of additional hazard. As fish are a major human dietary component in Arctic and Antarctic areas, and are often eaten without heat processing, a high risk of infection by anisakid larvae might be expected. The present level of knowledge, particularly relating to anisakid larval stages present in fishes, is far from satisfactory. Preliminary molecular studies have revealed the presence of species complexes. Contemporary climate warming is modifying the marine environment and may result in an extension of time during which anisakid eggs can persist and hatch, and of the time period during which newly hatched larvae remain viable. As a result there may be an increase in the extent of anisakid distribution. Continued warming will modify the composition of the parasitic nematode fauna of marine animals, due to changes in feeding habits, as the warming of the sea and any localised reduction in salinity (from freshwater runoff) can be expected to bring about changes in the species composition of pelagic and benthic invertebrates.

  11. Soil ecosystem functioning under climate change: plant species and community effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kardol, Paul; Cregger, Melissa A; Campany, Courtney E; Classen, Aimee T

    2010-03-01

    Feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to atmospheric and climate change depend on soil ecosystem dynamics. Soil ecosystems can directly and indirectly respond to climate change. For example, warming directly alters microbial communities by increasing their activity. Climate change may also alter plant community composition, thus indirectly altering the soil communities that depend on their inputs. To better understand how climate change may directly and indirectly alter soil ecosystem functioning, we investigated old-field plant community and soil ecosystem responses to single and combined effects of elevated [CO2], warming, and precipitation in Tennessee (USA). Specifically, we collected soils at the plot level (plant community soils) and beneath dominant plant species (plant-specific soils). We used microbial enzyme activities and soil nematodes as indicators for soil ecosystem functioning. Our study resulted in two main findings: (1) Overall, while there were some interactions, water, relative to increases in [CO2] and warming, had the largest impact on plant community composition, soil enzyme activity, and soil nematodes. Multiple climate-change factors can interact to shape ecosystems, but in our study, those interactions were largely driven by changes in water. (2) Indirect effects of climate change, via changes in plant communities, had a significant impact on soil ecosystem functioning, and this impact was not obvious when looking at plant community soils. Climate-change effects on enzyme activities and soil nematode abundance and community structure strongly differed between plant community soils and plant-specific soils, but also within plant-specific soils. These results indicate that accurate assessments of climate-change impacts on soil ecosystem functioning require incorporating the concurrent changes in plant function and plant community composition. Climate-change-induced shifts in plant community composition will likely modify or counteract the

  12. Integrated effects of air pollution and climate change on forests: a northern hemisphere perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bytnerowicz, Andrzej; Omasa, Kenji; Paoletti, Elena

    2007-06-01

    Many air pollutants and greenhouse gases have common sources, contribute to radiative balance, interact in the atmosphere, and affect ecosystems. The impacts on forest ecosystems have been traditionally treated separately for air pollution and climate change. However, the combined effects may significantly differ from a sum of separate effects. We review the links between air pollution and climate change and their interactive effects on northern hemisphere forests. A simultaneous addressing of the air pollution and climate change effects on forests may result in more effective research, management and monitoring as well as better integration of local, national and global environmental policies.

  13. The effects of changing solar activity on climate: contributions from palaeoclimatological studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Engels Stefan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Natural climate change currently acts in concert with human-induced changes in the climate system. To disentangle the natural variability in the climate system and the human-induced effects on the global climate, a critical analysis of climate change in the past may offer a better understanding of the processes that drive the global climate system. In this review paper, we present palaeoclimatological evidence for the past influence of solar variability on Earth’s climate, highlighting the effects of solar forcing on a range of timescales. On a decadal timescale, instrumental measurements as well as historical records show the effects of the 11-year Schwabe cycle on climate. The variation in total solar irradiance that is associated with a Schwabe cycle is only ~1 W m−2 between a solar minimum and a maximum, but winter and spring temperatures on the Northern Hemisphere show a response even to this small-scale variability. There is a large body of evidence from palaeoclimatic reconstructions that shows the influence of solar activity on a centennial to millennial timescale. We highlight a period of low solar activity starting at 2800 years before present when Europe experienced a shift to colder and wetter climate conditions. The spatial pattern of climate change that can be recognized in the palaeoclimatological data is in line with the suggested pattern of climate change as simulated by climate models. Millennial-scale climate oscillations can be recognized in sediment records from the Atlantic Ocean as well as in records of lake-level fluctuations in southeastern France. These oscillations coincide with variation in 14C production as recognized in the atmospheric 14C record (which is a proxy-record for solar activity, suggesting that Earth’s climate is sensitive to changes in solar activity on a millennial timescale as well.

  14. If You Change Yourself, the World Changes: The Effect of Exhibition on Preservice Science Teachers' Views about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aksüt, Pelin; Dogan, Nihal; Bahar, Mehmet

    2016-01-01

    Although learning can occur in many environments e.g. science museum or zoo, some studies reported that teachers are prone to avoid outdoor activities since they lack of field trip training. For that reason; this study aims to explore the effect of the exhibition on preservice science teachers' views about global climate change (GCC) as well as…

  15. Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Surface Runoff in the Luan River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sidong Zeng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff changes is the focus of climate change and hydrological research. This paper presents an integrated method employing the Budyko-based Fu model, hydrological modeling, and climate elasticity approaches to separate the effects of the two driving factors on surface runoff in the Luan River basin, China. The Budyko-based Fu model and the double mass curve method are used to analyze runoff changes during the period 1958~2009. Then two types of hydrological models (the distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool model and the lumped SIMHYD model and seven climate elasticity methods (including a nonparametric method and six Budyko-based methods are applied to estimate the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff change. The results show that all quantification methods are effective, and the results obtained by the nine methods are generally consistent. During the study period, the effects of climate change on runoff change accounted for 28.3~46.8% while those of human activities contributed with 53.2~71.7%, indicating that both factors have significant effects on the runoff decline in the basin, and that the effects of human activities are relatively stronger than those of climate change.

  16. Effective and responsible teaching of climate change in Earth Science-related disciplines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Z. P.; Greenhough, B. J.

    2009-04-01

    topic to cover within the Earth Science-related curricula due to wide-ranging, and sometimes polarised, existing attitudes of students and levels of existing partial and sometimes flawed knowledge in addition to the troublesome concepts that need to be grasped. These issues highlight the responsibility and challenge inherent in teaching the subject of climate change and the importance of consideration of integrating sustainability issues with the core science of climate change. The talk will include a discussion of strategies and resources for the effective teaching of climate change topics for a range of levels and discipline backgrounds.

  17. Pathogenic marine microbes influence the effects of climate change on a commercially important tropical bivalve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Lucy M; Alsterberg, Christian; Turner, Andrew D; Girisha, S K; Rai, Ashwin; Havenhand, Jonathan N; Venugopal, M N; Karunasagar, Indrani; Godhe, Anna

    2016-01-01

    There is growing evidence that climate change will increase the prevalence of toxic algae and harmful bacteria, which can accumulate in marine bivalves. However, we know little about any possible interactions between exposure to these microorganisms and the effects of climate change on bivalve health, or about how this may affect the bivalve toxin-pathogen load. In mesocosm experiments, mussels, Perna viridis, were subjected to simulated climate change (warming and/or hyposalinity) and exposed to harmful bacteria and/or toxin-producing dinoflagellates. We found significant interactions between climate change and these microbes on metabolic and/or immunobiological function and toxin-pathogen load in mussels. Surprisingly, however, these effects were virtually eliminated when mussels were exposed to both harmful microorganisms simultaneously. This study is the first to examine the effects of climate change on determining mussel toxin-pathogen load in an ecologically relevant, multi-trophic context. The results may have considerable implications for seafood safety.

  18. Poverty and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vink, G.; Franco, E.; Fuckar, N. S.; Kalmbach, E. R.; Kayatta, E.; Lankester, K.; Rothschild, R. E.; Sarma, A.; Wall, M. L.

    2008-05-01

    The poor are disproportionately vulnerable to environmental change because they have the least amount of resources with which to adapt, and they live in areas (e.g. flood plains, low-lying coastal areas, and marginal drylands) that are particularly vulnerable to the manifestations of climate change. By quantifying the various environmental, economic, and social factors that can contribute to poverty, we identify populations that are most vulnerable to poverty and poverty traps due to environmental change. We define vulnerability as consisting of risk (probability of event and exposed elements), resiliency, and capacity to respond. Resiliency captures the social system's ability to absorb a natural disaster while retaining the same basic structure, organization, and ways of functioning, as well as its general capacity to adapt to stress and change. Capacity to respond is a surrogate for technical skills, institutional capabilities, and efficacy within countries and their economies. We use a "climate change multiplier" to account for possible increases in the frequency and severity of natural events due to climate change. Through various analytical methods, we quantify the social, political, economic, and environmental factors that contribute to poverty or poverty traps. These data sets are then used to determine vulnerability through raster multiplication in geospatial analysis. The vulnerability of a particular location to climate change is then mapped, with areas of high vulnerability clearly delineated. The success of this methodology indicates that it is indeed possible to quantify the effects of climate change on global vulnerability to natural disasters, and can be used as a mechanism to identify areas where proactive measures, such as improving adaptation or capacity to respond, can reduce the humanitarian and economic impacts of climate change.

  19. Climate Change and Poverty Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Simon

    2011-08-15

    Climate change will make it increasingly difficult to achieve and sustain development goals. This is largely because climate effects on poverty remain poorly understood, and poverty reduction strategies do not adequately support climate resilience. Ensuring effective development in the face of climate change requires action on six fronts: investing in a stronger climate and poverty evidence base; applying the learning about development effectiveness to how we address adaptation needs; supporting nationally derived, integrated policies and programmes; including the climate-vulnerable poor in developing strategies; and identifying how mitigation strategies can also reduce poverty and enable adaptation.

  20. Climate Change and Water Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    To take action on climate impacts, practitioners must understand how climate change will effect their region, and the country. Training provided here by EPA and partners allow users to better grasp the issues and make decisions based on current science.

  1. The Effect of Climate Change on Ozone Depletion through Changes in Stratospheric Water Vapour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirk-Davidoff, Daniel B.; Hintsa, Eric J.; Anderson, James G.; Keith, David W.

    1999-01-01

    Several studies have predicted substantial increases in Arctic ozone depletion due to the stratospheric cooling induced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. But climate change may additionally influence Arctic ozone depletion through changes in the water vapor cycle. Here we investigate this possibility by combining predictions of tropical tropopause temperatures from a general circulation model with results from a one-dimensional radiative convective model, recent progress in understanding the stratospheric water vapor budget, modelling of heterogeneous reaction rates and the results of a general circulation model on the radiative effect of increased water vapor. Whereas most of the stratosphere will cool as greenhouse-gas concentrations increase, the tropical tropopause may become warmer, resulting in an increase of the mean saturation mixing ratio of water vapor and hence an increased transport of water vapor from the troposphere to the stratosphere. Stratospheric water vapor concentration in the polar regions determines both the critical temperature below which heterogeneous reactions on cold aerosols become important (the mechanism driving enhanced ozone depletion) and the temperature of the Arctic vortex itself. Our results indicate that ozone loss in the later winter and spring Arctic vortex depends critically on water vapor variations which are forced by sea surface temperature changes in the tropics. This potentially important effect has not been taken into account in previous scenarios of Arctic ozone loss under climate change conditions.

  2. Effect of climatic change on surface environments in the typical region of Horqin Sandy Land

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    The town of Agura,a typical region in Horqin Sandy Land,was selected as the study area in this paper.Using 12 remote sensing images and climatic data from the past 20 years,the effects of climate change on surface environments were analyzed.The impact indices of climatic factors,along with their corresponding ranks,were used to characterize the responses of different types of surface environments to climate change.Results show that in the past 20 years,the surface environments of the study area have been deteriorating.Furthermore,there is a positive relationship between the changes in surface environments and those in climatic factors.Various climatic factors influence surface environments in different ways and at different levels.The most sensitive factor is relative humidity,followed by precipitation and evaporation.Overall,moisture is the key factor that affects the changes in surface environments of arid and semi-arid areas.

  3. Examining the Effectiveness of Climate Change Frames in the Face of a Climate Change Denial Counter-Frame.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCright, Aaron M; Charters, Meghan; Dentzman, Katherine; Dietz, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Prior research on the influence of various ways of framing anthropogenic climate change (ACC) do not account for the organized ACC denial in the U.S. media and popular culture, and thus may overestimate these frames' influence in the general public. We conducted an experiment to examine how Americans' ACC views are influenced by four promising frames for urging action on ACC (economic opportunity, national security, Christian stewardship, and public health)-when these frames appear with an ACC denial counter-frame. This is the first direct test of how exposure to an ACC denial message influences Americans' ACC views. Overall, these four positive frames have little to no effect on ACC beliefs. But exposure to an ACC denial counter-frame does significantly reduce respondents' belief in the reality of ACC, belief about the veracity of climate science, awareness of the consequences of ACC, and support for aggressively attempting to reduce our nation's GHG emissions in the near future. Furthermore, as expected by the Anti-Reflexivity Thesis, exposure to the ACC denial counter-frame has a disproportionate influence on the ACC views of conservatives (than on those of moderates and liberals), effectively activating conservatives' underlying propensity for anti-reflexivity.

  4. Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... sheets Fact files Questions & answers Features Multimedia Contacts Climate change and health Fact sheet Reviewed June 2016 Key ... in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution. Climate change Over the last 50 years, human activities – particularly ...

  5. Braking effect of climate and topography on global change-induced upslope forest expansion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alatalo, Juha M.; Ferrarini, Alessandro

    2016-08-01

    Forests are expected to expand into alpine areas due to global climate change. It has recently been shown that temperature alone cannot realistically explain this process and that upslope tree advance in a warmer scenario may depend on the availability of sites with adequate geomorphic/topographic characteristics. Here, we show that, besides topography (slope and aspect), climate itself can produce a braking effect on the upslope advance of subalpine forests and that tree limit is influenced by non-linear and non-monotonic contributions of the climate variables which act upon treeline upslope advance with varying relative strengths. Our results suggest that global climate change impact on the upslope advance of subalpine forests should be interpreted in a more complex way where climate can both speed up and slow down the process depending on complex patterns of contribution from each climate and non-climate variable.

  6. The Health Effects of Climate Change in the WHO European Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanja Wolf

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The evidence of observed health effects as well as projections of future health risks from climate variability and climate change is growing. This article summarizes new knowledge on these health risks generated since the IPCC fourth assessment report (AR4 was published in 2007, with a specific focus on the 53 countries comprising the WHO European Region. Many studies on the effects of weather, climate variability, and climate change on health in the European Region have been published since 2007, increasing the level of certainty with regard to already known health threats. Exposures to temperature extremes, floods, storms, and wildfires have effects on cardiovascular and respiratory health. Climate- and weather-related health risks from worsening food and water safety and security, poor air quality, and ultraviolet radiation exposure as well as increasing allergic diseases, vector- and rodent-borne diseases, and other climate-sensitive health outcomes also warrant attention and policy action to protect human health.

  7. Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Trolle, Dennis; Børgesen, Christen Duus; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Jeppesen, Erik; Jensen, Karsten H.

    2016-04-01

    Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes on hydrology for a 486 km2 catchment in Denmark and to evaluate the sensitivity of the results to the choice of hydrological model. Three hydrological models, NAM, SWAT and MIKE SHE, were constructed and calibrated using similar methods. Each model was forced with results from four climate models and four land use scenarios. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice remained the dominant factor for mean discharge, low and high flows as well as hydraulic head at the end of the century.

  8. US Agriculture under Climate Change: An Examination of Climate Change Effects on Ease of Achieving RFS2

    OpenAIRE

    YUQUAN W. ZHANG; McCarl, Bruce A.

    2013-01-01

    The challenges and opportunities facing today's agriculture within the climate change context are at least twofold: in addition to adapting to a potentially more variable climate, agriculture may also take on the addition role of mitigating GHG emissions—such as providing renewable fuels to replace fossil fuels to some extent. For the US, a large-scale GHG mitigation effort through biofuels production pursuant to the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) is already unfolding. A question thus natural...

  9. Climate Change Law

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Farber, D.A.; Peeters, Marjan

    2016-01-01

    This book brings together over seventy fifty authors for a comprehensive examination of the emerging global regime of climate change law. Despite the relative youth of climate change law, we can already begin to see the outlines of legal regimes addressing climate change mitigation and adaptation (a

  10. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2013-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  11. Social Impacts of Climate Change in Brazil: A municipal level analysis of the effects of recent and future climate change on income, health and inequality

    OpenAIRE

    Andersen, Lykke E.; Román, Soraya; Verner, Dorte

    2010-01-01

    The paper uses data from 5,507 municipalities in Brazil to estimate the relationships between climate and income as well as climate and health, and then uses the estimated relationships to gauge the effects of past and future climate change on income levels and life expectancy in each of these municipalities. The simulations indicate that climate change over the past 50 years has tended to cause an overall drop in incomes in Brazil of about four percent, with the initially poorer and hotter m...

  12. Climate change and amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corn, P. S.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species

  13. Effects of climate change on yield potential of wheat and maize crops in the European Union

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolf, J. [Department of Theoretical Production Ecology, Wageningen Agricultural University, Wageningen (Netherlands); Van Diepen, C.A. [DLO the Winand Staring Centre, Wageningen (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    Yields of winter wheat, silage maize and grain maize in the main arable areas of the European Union (EU) were calculated with a simulation model, WOFOST, using historical weather data and average soil characteristics. The sensitivity of the model to individual weather variables was determined. Subsequent analyses were made using climate change scenarios with and without the direct effects of increased atmospheric CO{sub 2}. The impact of crop management in a changed climate was also assessed. The various climate change scenarios used appear to yield considerably different changes in yield, both for each location and for the EU as a whole. 4 figs., 2 tabs., 6 refs.

  14. Time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Donghai; Zhao, Xiang; Liang, Shunlin; Zhou, Tao; Huang, Kaicheng; Tang, Bijian; Zhao, Wenqian

    2015-09-01

    Climate conditions significantly affect vegetation growth in terrestrial ecosystems. Due to the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystems, the vegetation responses to climate vary considerably with the diverse spatial patterns and the time-lag effects, which are the most important mechanism of climate-vegetation interactive effects. Extensive studies focused on large-scale vegetation-climate interactions use the simultaneous meteorological and vegetation indicators to develop models; however, the time-lag effects are less considered, which tends to increase uncertainty. In this study, we aim to quantitatively determine the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors using the GIMMS3g NDVI time series and the CRU temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation datasets. First, this study analyzed the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors. Then, a multiple linear regression model and partial correlation model were established to statistically analyze the roles of different climatic factors on vegetation responses, from which the primary climate-driving factors for different vegetation types were determined. The results showed that (i) both the time-lag effects of the vegetation responses and the major climate-driving factors that significantly affect vegetation growth varied significantly at the global scale, which was related to the diverse vegetation and climate characteristics; (ii) regarding the time-lag effects, the climatic factors explained 64% variation of the global vegetation growth, which was 11% relatively higher than the model ignoring the time-lag effects; (iii) for the area with a significant change trend (for the period 1982-2008) in the global GIMMS3g NDVI (P effects is quite important for better predicting and evaluating the vegetation dynamics under the background of global climate change.

  15. The Effectiveness of the Geospatial Curriculum Approach on Urban Middle-Level Students' Climate Change Understandings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodzin, Alec M.; Fu, Qiong

    2014-08-01

    Climate change science is a challenging topic for student learning. This quantitative study examined the effectiveness of a geospatial curriculum approach to promote climate change science understandings in an urban school district with eighth-grade students and investigated whether teacher- and student-level factors accounted for students' climate change knowledge achievement. The participants included 12 science teachers and 956 eighth-grade students. Data included a pre- and posttest climate change assessment measures for both teachers and students and a teacher measure of Geospatial Science-Technological Pedagogical Content Knowledge. Paired-sample t tests revealed statistically significant gains from pretest to posttest on their climate change knowledge ( p < .001; effect sizes being large on multiple-choice items and medium on the open-ended response assessment). Both ordinary least squares (OLS) multiple regression and 2-level hierarchical linear modeling found that students' initial climate change knowledge and gender were significant predictors for students' posttest scores, p < .05. Students' pretest scores were the strongest significant predictor of the posttest scores, p < .001. Neither the teachers' climate change knowledge nor their Geospatial Science-Technological Pedagogical Content Knowledge had significant association with the students' posttest scores. Teaching years was a significant predictor for students' posttest scores in OLS regression ( p < .001). The findings provide support that a geospatial curriculum approach is an effective science curriculum approach for learners in urban middle-level education.

  16. Effects of climate-induced changes in isoprene emissions after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo

    OpenAIRE

    P. J. Telford; Lathière, J.; N. L. Abraham; Archibald, A.T.; P. Braesicke; Johnson, C E; Morgenstern, O.; F. M. O'Connor; Pike, R.C.; WILD O.; Young, P J; Beerling, D. J.; C. N. Hewitt; Pyle, J.

    2010-01-01

    In the 1990s the rates of increase of greenhouse gas concentrations, most notably of methane, were observed to change, for reasons that have yet to be fully determined. This period included the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo and an El Niño warm event, both of which affect biogeochemical processes, by changes in temperature, precipitation and radiation. We examine the impact of these changes in climate on global isoprene emissions and the effect these climate dependent emissions have on the hydroxy...

  17. White Paper: Estimating Salinity Effects Due to Climate Change on the Georgia and South Carolina Coasts

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This record is an unpublished white paper describing estimated effects of climate change of salinity on the coastal waterways of Georgia and South Carolina

  18. Review and synthesis of the effects of climate change on amphibians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yiming; Cohen, Jeremy M; Rohr, Jason R

    2013-06-01

    Considerable progress has been made in understanding the responses of amphibians to climate change, with successful research carried out on climate change-associated shifts in amphibian phenology, elevational distributions and amphibian-parasite interactions. We review and synthesize the literature on this topic, emphasizing acutely lethal, sublethal, indirect and positive effects of climate change on amphibians, and major research gaps. For instance, evidence is lacking on poleward shifts in amphibian distributions and on changes in body sizes and morphologies of amphibians in response to climate change. We have limited information on amphibian thermal tolerances, thermal preferences, dehydration breaths, opportunity costs of water conserving behaviors and actual temperature and moisture ranges amphibians experience. Even when much of this information is available, there remains little evidence that climate change is acutely lethal to amphibians. This suggests that if climate change is contributing to declines, it might be through effects that are not acutely lethal, indirect, or both, but evidence in support of this suggestion is necessary. In fact, evidence that climate change is directly contributing to amphibian declines is weak, partly because researchers have not often ruled out alternative hypotheses, such as chytrid fungus or climate-fungus interactions. Consequently, we recommend that amphibian-climate research shift from primarily inductive, correlational approach as to studies that evaluate alternative hypotheses for declines. This additional rigor will require interdisciplinary collaborations, estimates of costs and benefits of climate change to amphibian fitness and populations, and the integration of correlative field studies, experiments on 'model' amphibian species, and mathematical and functional, physiological models.

  19. Long-term effects of climate change on Europe's water resources

    OpenAIRE

    Domnisoru, A.

    2006-01-01

    Climate variations from last century show a global warming trend. Evidence from the past reveals that the anthropogenic greenhouse effect caused changes in climate parameters (temperature, precipitation and evaporation) at the European scale as well. On long-term this might have essential impact on temporal and spatial distribution of water resources.

  20. The effect of climate change and adaptation policy on agricultural production in Eastern Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kahsay, Goytom Abraha; Hansen, Lars Gårn

    2016-01-01

    We estimate the production function for agricultural output in Eastern Africa incorporating climate variables disaggregated into growing and non-growing seasons. We find a substantial negative effect of within growing season variance of precipitation. We simulate predicted climate change for the ...

  1. Long-term effects of climate change on Europe's water resources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Domnisoru, A.

    2006-01-01

    Climate variations from last century show a global warming trend. Evidence from the past reveals that the anthropogenic greenhouse effect caused changes in climate parameters (temperature, precipitation and evaporation) at the European scale as well. On long-term this might have essential impact on

  2. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulation seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse in the 21st century of the thermohaline circulation is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  3. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulate seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse of the thermohaline circulation in the 21st century is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  4. Effect of climate change on surface ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnell, Jordan L.; Prather, Michael J.; Josse, Beatrice; Naik, Vaishali; Horowitz, Larry W.; Zeng, Guang; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg

    2016-04-01

    The effect of future climate change on surface ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia is evaluated using present-day (2000s) and future (2100s) hourly surface ozone simulated by four global models. Future climate follows RCP8.5, while methane and anthropogenic ozone precursors are fixed at year 2000 levels. Climate change shifts the seasonal surface ozone peak to earlier in the year and increases the amplitude of the annual cycle. Increases in mean summertime and high-percentile ozone are generally found in polluted environments, while decreases are found in clean environments. We propose that climate change augments the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions, thus reducing precursor export to neighboring downwind locations. Even with constant biogenic emissions, climate change causes the largest ozone increases at high percentiles. In most cases, air quality extreme episodes become larger and contain higher ozone levels relative to the rest of the distribution.

  5. Effects of atmospheric and climate change at the timberline of the Central European Alps

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    This review considers potential effects of atmospheric change and climate warming within the timberline ecotone of the Central European Alps. After focusing on the impacts of ozone (O3) and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, effects of climate warming on the carbon and water balance of timberline trees and forests will be outlined towards conclusions about changes in tree growth and treeline dynamics.Presently, ambient ground-level O3 concentrations do not exert crucial stress on adult con...

  6. Climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion. Early effects on our health in Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kovats, S.; Menne, B.; McMichael, A.; Bertollini, R.; Soskolne, C. (eds.)

    2001-07-01

    People are concerned about the impact on their health of the climate warming and stratosperic ozone depletion that Europe has been experiencing for the last century. This publication attempts to clarify what early effects these environmental changes are having on our health, and what further effects they may have in the future. What is certain is that more frequent thermal stress, associated or not with air pollution, causes illness and death, especially among the elderly; extreme weather events such as floods cause death, illness and material damage; some water- and foodborne diseases increase during extreme weather conditions, such as heavy rainfall and heatwaves; malaria could increase with climate warming; and ozone depletion increases skin cancer and weakens the immune system. While much is still uncertain about the precise relationship between changes in the climate and changes in disease patterns, the need for action is clear; action either to reduce the climate change itself, or to reduce its harmful effects. (au)

  7. The uncertainty of future water supply adequacy in megacities: Effects of population growth and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alarcon, T.; Garcia, M. E.; Small, D. L.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

    2013-12-01

    Providing water to the expanding population of megacities, which have over 10 million people, with a stressed and aging water infrastructure creates unprecedented challenges. These challenges are exacerbated by dwindling supply and competing demands, altered precipitation and runoff patterns in a changing climate, fragmented water utility business models, and changing consumer behavior. While there is an extensive literature on the effects of climate change on water resources, the uncertainty of climate change predictions continues to be high. This hinders the value of these predictions for municipal water supply planning. The ability of water utilities to meet future water needs will largely depend on their capacity to make decisions under uncertainty. Water stressors, like changes in demographics, climate, and socioeconomic patterns, have varying degrees of uncertainty. Identifying which stressors will have a greater impact on water resources, may reduce the level of future uncertainty for planning and managing water utilities. Within this context, we analyze historical and projected changes of population and climate to quantify the relative impacts of these two stressors on water resources. We focus on megacities that rely primarily on surface water resources to evaluate (a) population growth pattern from 1950-2010 and projected population for 2010-2060; (b) climate change impact on projected climate change scenarios for 2010-2060; and (c) water access for 1950-2010; projected needs for 2010-2060.

  8. Simulation of landscape disturbances and the effect of climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baker, W.L.

    1993-04-01

    Altering the natural disturbance regime of a landscape produces changes in the structure of that landscape as the landscape adjusts to the new disturbance regime. A computer simulation model was designed to enable analyses of the longterm changes to be expected in landscapes as their disturbance regime changes. The model, DISPATCH, is the first dynamic spatial simulation model built around a geographical information system (GIS). The model also includes a new set of programs, the r.le programs, that is the first set of programs designed for calculating landscape structure measures within a GIS. The DISPATCH model was used, to analyze the effects of human alterations of disturbance regimes and global change on landscape structure. Landscapes do not adjust quickly to these alterations based on available data. Landscapes subjected to warming or to longterm fire suppression experience a decline in patch richness, Shannon diversity, the amount of edge and contrast, but an increase in distance between patches, angular second moment (texture measure) and patch size. In contrast, landscapes subjected to cooling, the short-term effects of fire suppression, fragmentation, or traditional prescribed burning tend to respond with increasing richness, Shannon diversity, edge, and contrast, but declining distance, angular second moment, and size. The pattern of response is different at different scales, with important implications for species.

  9. The detection of climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiffer, Robert A.; Unninayar, Sushel

    1991-01-01

    The greenhouse effect is accepted as an undisputed fact from both theoretical and observational considerations. In Earth's atmosphere, the primary greenhouse gas is water vapor. The specific concern today is that increasing concentrations of anthropogenically introduced greenhouse gases will, sooner or later, irreversibly alter the climate of Earth. Detecting climate change has been complicated by uncertainties in historical observations and measurements. Thus, the primary concern for the GEDEX project is how can climate change and enhanced greenhouse effects be unambiguously detected and quantified. Specifically examined are the areas of: Earth surface temperature; the free atmosphere (850 millibars and above); space-based measurements; measurement uncertainties; and modeling the observed temperature record.

  10. The effect of climate change and adaptation policy on agricultural production in eastern Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kahsay, Goytom Abraha; Hansen, Lars Gårn

    We estimate the production function for agricultural output in Eastern Africa incorporating climate variables disaggregated into growing and non-growing seasons. We find a substantial negative effect of within growing season variance of precipitation. We simulate predicted climate change...... for the region and find a resulting output reduction of between 1.2% and 4.5%. We also find substantial potential for mitigating the effects of within growing season precipitation variability through conventional technologies such as flexible planting and rainwater harvesting that substantially exceeds...... the potential loss from predicted climate change....

  11. The health effects of climate change: a survey of recent quantitative research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grasso, Margherita; Manera, Matteo; Chiabai, Aline; Markandya, Anil

    2012-05-01

    In recent years there has been a large scientific and public debate on climate change and its direct as well as indirect effects on human health. In particular, a large amount of research on the effects of climate changes on human health has addressed two fundamental questions. First, can historical data be of some help in revealing how short-run or long-run climate variations affect the occurrence of infectious diseases? Second, is it possible to build more accurate quantitative models which are capable of predicting the future effects of different climate conditions on the transmissibility of particularly dangerous infectious diseases? The primary goal of this paper is to review the most relevant contributions which have directly tackled those questions, both with respect to the effects of climate changes on the diffusion of non-infectious and infectious diseases, with malaria as a case study. Specific attention will be drawn on the methodological aspects of each study, which will be classified according to the type of quantitative model considered, namely time series models, panel data and spatial models, and non-statistical approaches. Since many different disciplines and approaches are involved, a broader view is necessary in order to provide a better understanding of the interactions between climate and health. In this respect, our paper also presents a critical summary of the recent literature related to more general aspects of the impacts of climate changes on human health, such as: the economics of climate change; how to manage the health effects of climate change; the establishment of Early Warning Systems for infectious diseases.

  12. Hantaviruses and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klempa, B

    2009-06-01

    Most hantaviruses are rodent-borne emerging viruses. They cause two significant human diseases, haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Asia and Europe, and hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome in the Americas. Very recently, several novel hantaviruses with unknown pathogenic potential have been identified in Africa and in a variety of insectivores (shrews and a mole). Because there is very limited information available on the possible impact of climate change on all of these highly dangerous pathogens, it is timely to review this aspect of their epidemiology. It can reasonably be concluded that climate change should influence hantaviruses through impacts on the hantavirus reservoir host populations. We can anticipate changes in the size and frequency of hantavirus outbreaks, the spectrum of hantavirus species and geographical distribution (mediated by changes in population densities), and species composition and geographical distribution of their reservoir hosts. The early effects of global warming have already been observed in different geographical areas of Europe. Elevated average temperatures in West-Central Europe have been associated with more frequent Puumala hantavirus outbreaks, through high seed production (mast year) and high bank vole densities. On the other hand, warm winters in Scandinavia have led to a decline in vole populations as a result of the missing protective snow cover. Additional effects can be caused by increased intensity and frequency of extreme climatic events, or by changes in human behaviour leading to higher risk of human virus exposure. Regardless of the extent of climate change, it is difficult to predict the impact on hantavirus survival, emergence and epidemiology. Nevertheless, hantaviruses will undoubtedly remain a significant public health threat for several decades to come.

  13. The CC-Bio Project: Studying the Effects of Climate Change on Quebec Biodiversity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luc Vescovi

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Anticipating the effects of climate change on biodiversity is now critical for managing wild species and ecosystems. Climate change is a global driver and thus affects biodiversity globally. However, land-use planners and natural resource managers need regional or even local predictions. This provides scientists with formidable challenges given the poor documentation of biodiversity and its complex relationships with climate. We are approaching this problem in Quebec, Canada, through the CC-Bio Project (http://cc‑bio.uqar.ca/, using a boundary organization as a catalyst for team work involving climate modelers, biologists, naturalists, and biodiversity managers. In this paper we present the CC-Bio Project and its general approach, some preliminary results, the emerging hypothesis of the northern biodiversity paradox (a potential increase of biodiversity in northern ecosystems due to climate change, and an early assessment of the conservation implications generated by our team work.

  14. Climate change effects on North American inland fish populations and assemblages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Abigail J.; Myers, Bonnie; Chu, Cindy; Eby, Lisa A.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Kovach, Ryan P.; Krabbenhoft, Trevor J.; Kwak, Thomas J.; Lyons, John; Paukert, Craig P.; Whitney, James E.

    2016-01-01

    Climate is a critical driver of many fish populations, assemblages, and aquatic communities. However, direct observational studies of climate change impacts on North American inland fishes are rare. In this synthesis, we (1) summarize climate trends that may influence North American inland fish populations and assemblages, (2) compile 31 peer-reviewed studies of documented climate change effects on North American inland fish populations and assemblages, and (3) highlight four case studies representing a variety of observed responses ranging from warmwater systems in the southwestern and southeastern United States to coldwater systems along the Pacific Coast and Canadian Shield. We conclude by identifying key data gaps and research needs to inform adaptive, ecosystem-based approaches to managing North American inland fishes and fisheries in a changing climate.

  15. Assessing the Use of Metaphors to Facilitate and Improve the Effectiveness of Climate Change Communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh-Thomas, J.; Maibach, E.

    2014-12-01

    Metaphors are sometimes used in science communication to explain unfamiliar scientific concepts and processes in more familiar terms. Empirical research has shown that metaphors can help audiences better understand complicated scientific concepts. A growing number of metaphors are used to explain various climate science concepts, but the only empirical evaluation of climate metaphors to date (van der Linden et al, 2014, Climatic Change) found that medical and bridge safety metaphors did not enhance the effectiveness of a simple corrective statement about the scientific consensus on human-caused climate change. Drawing on a recent meta-analysis by Sopory and Dillard (2002, Hum Commun. Res.), we will briefly review what is known about appropriate metaphor usage in communicating scientific concepts. We will also present preliminary findings from an experiment currently underway to further explain the conditions in which metaphors are likely to help in communicating climate science concepts. We hypothesize that metaphors will be more effective in communicating high complexity climate science concepts that are less easily understood by the public than more easily understood low complexity concepts (such as scientific consensus on climate change). We also hypothesize that the more familiar people are with the referent (performance enhancing drugs in baseball is a metaphor about "the climate system on steroids"), the more effective the metaphor will be. To test these hypotheses, we are randomly assigning ~1000 adults - approximately representative of the US adult population - to read one brief passage in which one of four relatively simple or complex climate concepts is presented and explained with or without a metaphor. The outcome measures will include climate change belief, concern, knowledge, and involvement. This study is intended to add to the knowledge base about use of metaphors in science communication, and provide practical advice to climate communicators.

  16. Asking about climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise

    2014-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that climate change will strongly affect people across the globe. Likely impacts of and adaptations to climate change are drawing the attention of researchers from many disciplines. In adaptation research focus is often on perceptions of climate change...... and on vulnerability and adaptation strategies in a particular region or community. But how do we research the ways in which people experience changing climatic conditions, the processes of decision-making, the actual adaptation strategies carried out and the consequences of these for actors living and dealing...... with climate change? On the basis of a literature review of all articles published in Global Environmental Change between 2000 and 2012 that deal with human dimensions of climate change using qualitative methods this paper provides some answers but also raises some concerns. The period and length of fieldwork...

  17. Effect of climate change on stormwater characteristics and treatment efficiencies of stormwater retention ponds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharma, Anitha Kumari; Vezzaro, Luca; Birch, Heidi;

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the potential effect of climate changes on stormwater characteristics and treatment efficiency of retention ponds. This was performed by using an integrated model for two scenarios representing the current situations and a climate change scenario....... The dissolved concentrations showed no strong relationship to rainfall intensity. The simulations with the integrated model showed that the climate change increase of rainfall intensity led to an increase in the concentrations discharged from the catchment. The higher flows caused a decrease in the pond removal...... performance with an overall increase in the particulate concentrations discharged to the environment. The changes in the two scenarios affected only the particulate phase, so no major impact on toxicity due to stormwater discharge is expected due to climate change. Further research is needed to address...

  18. Evaluation of methods for estimating the effects of vegetation change and climate variability on streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Fangfang; Zhang, Lu; Xu, Zongxue; Scott, David F.

    2010-03-01

    Changes in vegetation cover can significantly affect streamflow. Two common methods for estimating vegetation effects on streamflow are the paired catchment method and the time trend analysis technique. In this study, the performance of these methods is evaluated using data from paired catchments in Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa. Results show that these methods generally yield consistent estimates of the vegetation effect, and most of the observed streamflow changes are attributable to vegetation change. These estimates are realistic and are supported by the vegetation history. The accuracy of the estimates, however, largely depends on the length of calibration periods or pretreatment periods. For catchments with short or no pretreatment periods, we find that statistically identified prechange periods can be used as calibration periods. Because streamflow also responds to climate variability, in assessing streamflow changes it is necessary to consider the effect of climate in addition to the effect of vegetation. Here, the climate effect on streamflow was estimated using a sensitivity-based method that calculates changes in rainfall and potential evaporation. A unifying conceptual framework, based on the assumption that climate and vegetation are the only drivers for streamflow changes, enables comparison of all three methods. It is shown that these methods provide consistent estimates of vegetation and climate effects on streamflow for the catchments considered. An advantage of the time trend analysis and sensitivity-based methods is that they are applicable to nonpaired catchments, making them potentially useful in large catchments undergoing vegetation change.

  19. Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population: analysis of coupled demographic and climate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Serreze, Mark; Caswell, Hal

    2012-09-01

    Sea ice conditions in the Antarctic affect the life cycle of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We present a population projection for the emperor penguin population of Terre Adélie, Antarctica, by linking demographic models (stage-structured, seasonal, nonlinear, two-sex matrix population models) to sea ice forecasts from an ensemble of IPCC climate models. Based on maximum likelihood capture-mark-recapture analysis, we find that seasonal sea ice concentration anomalies (SICa ) affect adult survival and breeding success. Demographic models show that both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates are maximized at intermediate values of annual SICa , because neither the complete absence of sea ice, nor heavy and persistent sea ice, would provide satisfactory conditions for the emperor penguin. We show that under some conditions the stochastic growth rate is positively affected by the variance in SICa . We identify an ensemble of five general circulation climate models whose output closely matches the historical record of sea ice concentration in Terre Adélie. The output of this ensemble is used to produce stochastic forecasts of SICa , which in turn drive the population model. Uncertainty is included by incorporating multiple climate models and by a parametric bootstrap procedure that includes parameter uncertainty due to both model selection and estimation error. The median of these simulations predicts a decline of the Terre Adélie emperor penguin population of 81% by the year 2100. We find a 43% chance of an even greater decline, of 90% or more. The uncertainty in population projections reflects large differences among climate models in their forecasts of future sea ice conditions. One such model predicts population increases over much of the century, but overall, the ensemble of models predicts that population declines are far more likely than population increases. We conclude that climate change is a significant risk for the emperor

  20. Effects of Solar UV Radiation and Climate Change on Biogeochemical Cycling: Interactions and Feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solar UV radiation, climate and other drivers of global change are undergoing significant changes and models forecast that these changes will continue for the remainder of this century. Here we assess the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles and the interactions...

  1. The effect of climate change on urban drainage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grum, M.; Jørgensen, A.T.; Johansen, R.M.

    2006-01-01

    extreme statistics of the rain gauge surface into the future. Thirdly, the future extremes of the square surface area are downscaled to give point rainfall extremes of the future. The results and conclusions rely heavily on the regional model's suitability in describing extremes at timescales relevant......: Firstly, hourly rainfall intensities from 16 point rain gauges are averaged to create a rain gauge equivalent intensity for a 25 X 25 km square corresponding to one grid cell in the climate model. Secondly, the differences between present and future in the climate model is used to project the hourly...

  2. Climate change effects on extreme flows of water supply area in Istanbul: utility of regional climate models and downscaling method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kara, Fatih; Yucel, Ismail

    2015-09-01

    This study investigates the climate change impact on the changes of mean and extreme flows under current and future climate conditions in the Omerli Basin of Istanbul, Turkey. The 15 regional climate model output from the EU-ENSEMBLES project and a downscaling method based on local implications from geophysical variables were used for the comparative analyses. Automated calibration algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdel-ning (HBV) model for the study catchment using observed daily temperature and precipitation. The calibrated HBV model was implemented to simulate daily flows using precipitation and temperature data from climate models with and without downscaling method for reference (1960-1990) and scenario (2071-2100) periods. Flood indices were derived from daily flows, and their changes throughout the four seasons and year were evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. All climate models strongly underestimate precipitation while downscaling improves their underestimation feature particularly for extreme events. Depending on precipitation input from climate models with and without downscaling the HBV also significantly underestimates daily mean and extreme flows through all seasons. However, this underestimation feature is importantly improved for all seasons especially for spring and winter through the use of downscaled inputs. Changes in extreme flows from reference to future increased for the winter and spring and decreased for the fall and summer seasons. These changes were more significant with downscaling inputs. With respect to current time, higher flow magnitudes for given return periods will be experienced in the future and hence, in the planning of the Omerli reservoir, the effective storage and water use should be sustained.

  3. Financing climate change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouwer, Laurens M; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2006-03-01

    This paper examines the topic of financing adaptation in future climate change policies. A major question is whether adaptation in developing countries should be financed under the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), or whether funding should come from other sources. We present an overview of financial resources and propose the employment of a two-track approach: one track that attempts to secure climate change adaptation funding under the UNFCCC; and a second track that improves mainstreaming of climate risk management in development efforts. Developed countries would need to demonstrate much greater commitment to the funding of adaptation measures if the UNFCCC were to cover a substantial part of the costs. The mainstreaming of climate change adaptation could follow a risk management path, particularly in relation to disaster risk reduction. 'Climate-proofing' of development projects that currently do not consider climate and weather risks could improve their sustainability.

  4. A population facing climate change: joint influences of Allee effects and environmental boundary geometry

    CERN Document Server

    Roques, Lionel; Berestycki, Henri; Kretzschmar, André

    2009-01-01

    As a result of climate change, many populations have to modify their range to follow the suitable areas - their "climate envelope" - often risking extinction. During this migration process, they may face absolute boundaries to dispersal, because of external environmental factors. Consequently, not only the position, but also the shape of the climate envelope can be modified. We use a reaction-diffusion model to analyse the effects on population persistence of simultaneous changes in the climate envelope position and shape. When the growth term is of logistic type, we show that extinction and persistence are principally conditioned by the species mobility and the speed of climate change, but not by the shape of the climate envelope. However, with a growth term taking an Allee effect into account, we find a high sensitivity to the variations of the shape of the climate envelope. In this case, the species which have a high mobility, although they could more easily follow the migration of the climate envelope, wo...

  5. Climate change effects on reference crop evapotranspiration across different climatic zones of China during 1956-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Junliang; Wu, Lifeng; Zhang, Fucang; Xiang, Youzhen; Zheng, Jing

    2016-11-01

    Global climate change has been an increasing challenge to agricultural ecosystems, which will significantly affect the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) and subsequently crop water requirements. In this study, the temporal trends and magnitudes of key climatic variables and the accompanying effects on ET0 during 1956-2015 were evaluated at 200 meteorological stations across the temperate continental zone (TCZ), temperate monsoon zone (TMZ), mountain plateau zone (MPZ), and subtropical monsoon zone (SMZ) of China. Results show that maximum and minimum temperatures have increased significantly over the past 60 years, whilst relative humidity, wind speed and sunshine hour exhibited significant decreasing trends across all climatic zones. The overall decreasing trends in annual ET0 were more pronounced than the increasing trends, whereas more increasing trends were found in spring and winter. Abrupt changes for climatic variables and ET0 series were detected in 1990s in the MPZ, while in 1980s in the other climatic zones mainly due to the aggregated emission of greenhouse gases and air pollution from energy consumption in recent decades. Relative humidity was the most sensitive climatic variable in all climatic zones except for the MPZ where ET0 was most sensitive to sunshine hour. However, ET0 had different responses to changing climatic variables in different regions and climatic conditions. The negative contribution of wind speed to the decrease in ET0 was greater than the other climatic variables in the TCZ and the TMZ, whilst the significant increase in minimum temperature and the decrease in sunshine hour contributed most to increasing ET0 in the MPZ and to decreasing ET0 in the SMZ, respectively. Although ET0 displayed a generally decreasing trend during 1956-2015, there was a significantly increasing trend from 1985 to 2015 across China except for the SMZ, especially in the arid and semi-arid zones of China during dry seasons (spring and winter). This may

  6. Comparative analysis of climate change policy in a trans-Atlantic perspective, The implications of level of governance regarding climate change mitigation effectiveness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Taminiau, Job

    2010-01-01

    The United States and the European Union address climate change in a fundamentally different manner. The US seems uninterested to address climate change from a federal level, but individual states within the US are definitely moving forward with climate c

  7. Beyond yields: Climate change effects on specialty crop quality and agroecological management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selena Ahmed

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Climate change is impacting the sustainability of food systems through shifts in natural and human dimensions of agroecosystems that influence farmer livelihoods, consumer choices, and food security. This paper highlights the need for climate studies on specialty crops to focus not only on yields, but also on quality, as well as the ability of agroecological management to buffer climate effects on quality parameters. Crop quality refers to phytonutrient and secondary metabolite profiles and associated health and sensory properties that influence consumer buying decisions. Through two literature reviews, we provide examples of specialty crops that are vulnerable to climate effects on quality and examples of climate-resilient agroecological strategies. A range of specialty crops including fruits, vegetables, tree nuts, stimulants, and herbs were identified to respond to climate variables with changes in quality. The review on climate-resilient strategies to mitigate effects on crop quality highlighted a major gap in the literature. However, agricultural diversification emerged as a promising strategy for climate resilience more broadly and highlights the need for future research to assess the potential of diversified agroecosystems to buffer climate effects on crop quality. We integrate the concepts from our literature review within a socio-ecological systems framework that takes into account feedbacks between crop quality, consumer responses, and agroecosystem management. The presented framework is especially useful for two themes in agricultural development and marketing, nutrition-sensitive agriculture and terroir, for informing the design of climate-change resilient specialty crop systems focused on management of quality and other ecosystem services towards promoting environmental and human wellbeing.

  8. The potential effects of climate change on amphibian distribution, range fragmentation and turnover in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ren-Yan Duan

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Many studies predict that climate change will cause species movement and turnover, but few have considered the effect of climate change on range fragmentation for current species and/or populations. We used MaxEnt to predict suitable habitat, fragmentation and turnover for 134 amphibian species in China under 40 future climate change scenarios spanning four pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5 and two time periods (the 2050s and 2070s. Our results show that climate change may cause a major shift in spatial patterns of amphibian diversity. Amphibians in China would lose 20% of their original ranges on average; the distribution outside current ranges would increase by 15%. Suitable habitats for over 90% of species will be located in the north of their current range, for over 95% of species in higher altitudes (from currently 137–4,124 m to 286–4,396 m in the 2050s or 314–4,448 m in the 2070s, and for over 75% of species in the west of their current range. Also, our results predict two different general responses to the climate change: some species contract their ranges while moving westwards, southwards and to higher altitudes, while others expand their ranges. Finally, our analyses indicate that range dynamics and fragmentation are related, which means that the effects of climate change on Chinese amphibians might be two-folded.

  9. The potential effects of climate change on amphibian distribution, range fragmentation and turnover in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Ren-Yan; Kong, Xiao-Quan; Huang, Min-Yi; Varela, Sara; Ji, Xiang

    2016-01-01

    Many studies predict that climate change will cause species movement and turnover, but few have considered the effect of climate change on range fragmentation for current species and/or populations. We used MaxEnt to predict suitable habitat, fragmentation and turnover for 134 amphibian species in China under 40 future climate change scenarios spanning four pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5) and two time periods (the 2050s and 2070s). Our results show that climate change may cause a major shift in spatial patterns of amphibian diversity. Amphibians in China would lose 20% of their original ranges on average; the distribution outside current ranges would increase by 15%. Suitable habitats for over 90% of species will be located in the north of their current range, for over 95% of species in higher altitudes (from currently 137-4,124 m to 286-4,396 m in the 2050s or 314-4,448 m in the 2070s), and for over 75% of species in the west of their current range. Also, our results predict two different general responses to the climate change: some species contract their ranges while moving westwards, southwards and to higher altitudes, while others expand their ranges. Finally, our analyses indicate that range dynamics and fragmentation are related, which means that the effects of climate change on Chinese amphibians might be two-folded.

  10. Testing for effects of climate change on competitive relationships and coexistence between two bird species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenseth, Nils Chr; Durant, Joël M; Fowler, Mike S; Matthysen, Erik; Adriaensen, Frank; Jonzén, Niclas; Chan, Kung-Sik; Liu, Hai; De Laet, Jenny; Sheldon, Ben C; Visser, Marcel E; Dhondt, André A

    2015-05-22

    Climate change is expected to have profound ecological effects, yet shifts in competitive abilities among species are rarely studied in this context. Blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and great tits (Parus major) compete for food and roosting sites, yet coexist across much of their range. Climate change might thus change the competitive relationships and coexistence between these two species. Analysing four of the highest-quality, long-term datasets available on these species across Europe, we extend the textbook example of coexistence between competing species to include the dynamic effects of long-term climate variation. Using threshold time-series statistical modelling, we demonstrate that long-term climate variation affects species demography through different influences on density-dependent and density-independent processes. The competitive interaction between blue tits and great tits has shifted in one of the studied sites, creating conditions that alter the relative equilibrium densities between the two species, potentially disrupting long-term coexistence. Our analyses show that long-term climate change can, but does not always, generate local differences in the equilibrium conditions of spatially structured species assemblages. We demonstrate how long-term data can be used to better understand whether (and how), for instance, climate change might change the relationships between coexisting species. However, the studied populations are rather robust against competitive exclusion.

  11. The effect of future outdoor air pollution on human health and the contribution of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, R.; West, J. J.; Lamarque, J.; Shindell, D.; Collins, W.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Faluvegi, G. S.; Folberth, G.; Horowitz, L. W.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S.; Skeie, R.; Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Bergmann, D. J.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Cionni, I.; Doherty, R. M.; Eyring, V.; Josse, B.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, D.; Righi, M.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S. A.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

    2013-12-01

    At present, exposure to outdoor air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) causes over 2 million deaths per year, due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer. Future ambient concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 will be affected by both air pollutant emissions and climate change. Here we estimate the potential impact of future outdoor air pollution on premature human mortality, and isolate the contribution of future climate change due to its effect on air quality. We use modeled present-day (2000) and future global ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from simulations with an ensemble of chemistry-climate models from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Future air pollution was modeled for global greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions in the four IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, for 2030, 2050 and 2100. All model outputs are regridded to a common 0.5°x0.5° horizontal resolution. Future premature mortality is estimated for each RCP scenario and year based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000. Using a health impact function, changes in concentrations for each RCP scenario are combined with future population and cause-specific baseline mortality rates as projected by a single independent scenario in which the global incidence of cardiopulmonary diseases is expected to increase. The effect of climate change is isolated by considering the difference between air pollutant concentrations from simulations with 2000 emissions and a future year climate and simulations with 2000 emissions and climate. Uncertainties in the results reflect the uncertainty in the concentration-response function and that associated with variability among models. Few previous studies have quantified the effects of future climate change on global human health via changes in air quality, and this is the first such study to use an ensemble of global models.

  12. Effect of rainfall as a component of climate change on estuarine fish production in Queensland, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meynecke, Jan-Olaf; Lee, Shing Yip; Duke, Norman C.; Warnken, Jan

    2006-09-01

    The speculation that climate change may impact on sustainable fish production suggests a need to understand how these effects influence fish catch on a broad scale. With a gross annual value of A$ 2.2 billion, the fishing industry is a significant primary industry in Australia. Many commercially important fish species use estuarine habitats such as mangroves, tidal flats and seagrass beds as nurseries or breeding grounds and have lifecycles correlated to rainfall and temperature patterns. Correlation of catches of mullet (e.g. Mugil cephalus) and barramundi ( Lates calcarifer) with rainfall suggests that fisheries may be sensitive to effects of climate change. This work reviews key commercial fish and crustacean species and their link to estuaries and climate parameters. A conceptual model demonstrates ecological and biophysical links of estuarine habitats that influences capture fisheries production. The difficulty involved in explaining the effect of climate change on fisheries arising from the lack of ecological knowledge may be overcome by relating climate parameters with long-term fish catch data. Catch per unit effort (CPUE), rainfall, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and catch time series for specific combinations of climate seasons and regions have been explored and surplus production models applied to Queensland's commercial fish catch data with the program CLIMPROD. Results indicate that up to 30% of Queensland's total fish catch and up to 80% of the barramundi catch variation for specific regions can be explained by rainfall often with a lagged response to rainfall events. Our approach allows an evaluation of the economic consequences of climate parameters on estuarine fisheries, thus highlighting the need to develop forecast models and manage estuaries for future climate change impact by adjusting the quota for climate change sensitive species. Different modelling approaches are discussed with respect to their forecast ability.

  13. Climate change effects on human health in a gender perspective: some trends in Arctic research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kukarenko Natalia

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Climate change and environmental pollution have become pressing concerns for the peoples in the Arctic region. Some researchers link climate change, transformations of living conditions and human health. A number of studies have also provided data on differentiating effects of climate change on women's and men's well-being and health. Objective: To show how the issues of climate and environment change, human health and gender are addressed in current research in the Arctic. The main purpose of this article is not to give a full review but to draw attention to the gaps in knowledge and challenges in the Arctic research trends on climate change, human health and gender. Methods: A broad literature search was undertaken using a variety of sources from natural, medical, social science and humanities. The focus was on the keywords. Results: Despite the evidence provided by many researchers on differentiating effects of climate change on well-being and health of women and men, gender perspective remains of marginal interest in climate change, environmental and health studies. At the same time, social sciences and humanities, and gender studies in particular, show little interest towards climate change impacts on human health in the Arctic. As a result, we still observe the division of labour between disciplines, the disciplinary-bound pictures of human development in the Arctic and terminology confusion. Conclusion: Efforts to bring in a gender perspective in the Arctic research will be successful only when different disciplines would work together. Multidisciplinary research is a way to challenge academic/disciplinary homogeneity and their boundaries, to take advantage of the diversity of approaches and methods in production of new integrated knowledge. Cooperation and dialogue across disciplines will help to develop adequate indicators for monitoring human health and elaborating efficient policies and strategies to the benefit of both

  14. Dune erosion under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Winter, R.C.

    2014-01-01

    This PhD-thesis investigated the effect of future climate change on dune erosion in the Netherlands. At present, dune erosion occurs under a combination of large storm surge and high waves, which are both generated by a storm event. Therefore to investigate the affect of future climate change on dun

  15. Cinematic climate change, a promising perspective on climate change communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakellari, Maria

    2015-10-01

    Previous research findings display that after having seen popular climate change films, people became more concerned, more motivated and more aware of climate change, but changes in behaviors were short-term. This article performs a meta-analysis of three popular climate change films, The Day after Tomorrow (2005), An Inconvenient Truth (2006), and The Age of Stupid (2009), drawing on research in social psychology, human agency, and media effect theory in order to formulate a rationale about how mass media communication shapes our everyday life experience. This article highlights the factors with which science blends in the reception of the three climate change films and expands the range of options considered in order to encourage people to engage in climate change mitigation actions.

  16. The Effects of Climate Change on the Hydrology and Water Resources of the Colorado River Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christensen, N.S.; Wood, A.W.; Voisin, N.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Palmer, R.N. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 164 Wilcox Hall, P.O. Box 352700, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-2700 (United States)

    2004-07-01

    The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River basin are assessed by comparing simulated hydrologic and water resources scenarios derived from downscaled climate simulations of the U.S. Department of Energy/National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (PCM) to scenarios driven by observed historical (1950-1999) climate. PCM climate scenarios include an ensemble of three 105-year future climate simulations based on projected 'business-as-usual' (BAU) greenhouse gas emissions and a control climate simulation based on static 1995 greenhouse gas concentrations. Downscaled transient temperature and precipitation sequences were extracted from PCM simulations, and were used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model to produce corresponding streamflow sequences. Results for the BAU scenarios were summarized into Periods 1, 2, and 3 (2010-2039, 2040-2069, 2070-2098). Average annual temperature changes for the Colorado River basin were 0.5C warmer for control climate, and 1.0, 1.7, and 2.4C warmer for Periods 1-3, respectively, relative to the historical climate. Basin-average annual precipitation for the control climate was slightly (1%) less than for observed historical climate, and 3, 6, and 3% less for future Periods 1-3, respectively. Annual runoff in the control run was about 10% lower than for simulated historical conditions, and 14, 18, and 17% less for Periods 1-3, respectively. Analysis of water management operations using a water management model driven by simulated streamflows showed that streamflows associated with control and future BAU climates would significantly degrade the performance of the water resources system relative to historical conditions, with average total basin storage reduced by 7% for the control climate and 36, 32 and 40% for Periods 1-3, respectively. Releases from Glen Canyon Dam to the Lower Basin (mandated by the Colorado

  17. Investigating Welfare Effect of Climate Change on the Wheat Products in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Khalilian

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural sector will be most affected by climate change due to its extensive interaction with the environment. and as a result of changing production conditions, community welfare is changed. This study attempted at understanding the welfare effects of changes in climate parameters on the wheat product. Therefore, the yield functions were initially estimated. Supply, demand and import functions were secondly estimated by Simultaneous equations system. Finally, to study the welfare effects resulting from changes in temperature and precipitation, a price-endogenous mathematical programming model in three different scenarios of climate was used. The results showed that in the case of reducing precipitation with increasing temperature, consumer surplus, producer surplus and therefore society surplus will be reduced . Loss of welfare for consumers are higher than what is for producers.

  18. Effective Teacher Practice on the Plausibility of Human-Induced Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niepold, F.; Sinatra, G. M.; Lombardi, D.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change education programs in the United States seek to promote a deeper understanding of the science of climate change, behavior change and stewardship, and support informed decision making by individuals, organizations, and institutions--all of which are summarized under the term 'climate literacy.' The ultimate goal of climate literacy is to enable actors to address climate change, both in terms of stabilizing and reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, but also an increased capacity to prepare for the consequences and opportunities of climate change. However, the long-term nature of climate change and the required societal response involve the changing students' ideas about controversial scientific issues which presents unique challenges for educators (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2010; Sinatra & Mason, 2008). This session will explore how the United States educational efforts focus on three distinct, but related, areas: the science of climate change, the human-climate interaction, and using climate education to promote informed decision making. Each of these approaches are represented in the Atlas of Science Literacy (American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2007) and in the conceptual framework for science education developed at the National Research Council (NRC) in 2012. Instruction to develop these fundamental thinking skills (e.g., critical evaluation and plausibility reappraisal) has been called for by the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) (Achieve, 2013), an innovative and research based way to address climate change education within the decentralized U.S. education system. However, the promise of the NGSS is that students will have more time to build mastery on the subjects, but the form of that instructional practice has been show to be critical. Research has show that effective instructional activities that promote evaluation of evidence improve students' understanding and acceptance toward the scientifically accepted model of human

  19. Effects of seasonal climatic variability on several toxic contaminants in urban lakes: Implications for the impacts of climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qiong Wu; Xinghui Xia; Xinli Mou; Baotong Zhu; Pujun Zhao; Haiyang Dong

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is supposed to have influences on water quality and ecosystem.However,only few studies have assessed the effect of climate change on environmental toxic contaminants in urban lakes.In this research,response of several toxic contaminants in twelve urban lakes in Beijing,China,to the seasonal variations in climatic factors was studied.Fluorides,volatile phenols,arsenic,selenium,and other water quality parameters were analyzed monthly from 2009 to 2012.Multivariate statistical methods including principle component analysis,cluster analysis,and multiple regression analysis were performed to study the relationship between contaminants and climatic factors including temperature,precipitation,wind speed,and sunshine duration.Fluoride and arsenic concentrations in most urban lakes exhibited a significant positive correlation with temperature/precipitation,which is mainly caused by rainfall induced diffuse pollution.A negative correlation was observed between volatile phenols and temperature/precipitation,and this could be explained by their enhanced volatilization and biodegradation rates caused by higher temperature.Selenium did not show a significant response to climatic factor variations,which was attributed to low selenium contents in the lakes and soils.Moreover,the response degrees of contaminants to climatic variations differ among lakes with different contamination levels.On average,temperature/precipitation contributed to 8%,15%,and 12% of the variations in volatile phenols,arsenic,and fluorides,respectively.Beijing is undergoing increased temperature and heavy rainfall frequency during the past five decades.This study suggests that water quality related to fluoride and arsenic concentrations of most urban lakes in Beijing is becoming worse under this climate change trend.

  20. Climate Change and Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chinowsky, P.; Arndt, Channing

    2012-01-01

    Decision-makers who are responsible for determining when and where infrastructure should be developed and/or enhanced are facing a new challenge with the emerging topic of climate change. The paper introduces a stressor–response methodology where engineering-based models are used as a basis...... four climate projection scenarios, the paper details how climate change response decisions may cost the Mozambican government in terms of maintenance costs and long-term roadstock inventory reduction. Through this approach the paper details how a 14% reduction in inventory loss can be achieved through...... the adoption of a proactive, design standard evolution approach to climate change....

  1. Combating the effects of climatic change on forests by mitigation strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dieter Matthias

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Forests occur across diverse biomes, each of which shows a specific composition of plant communities associated with the particular climate regimes. Predicted future climate change will have impacts on the vulnerability and productivity of forests; in some regions higher temperatures will extend the growing season and thus improve forest productivity, while changed annual precipitation patterns may show disadvantageous effects in areas, where water availability is restricted. While adaptation of forests to predicted future climate scenarios has been intensively studied, less attention was paid to mitigation strategies such as the introduction of tree species well adapted to changing environmental conditions. Results We simulated the development of managed forest ecosystems in Germany for the time period between 2000 and 2100 under different forest management regimes and climate change scenarios. The management regimes reflect different rotation periods, harvesting intensities and species selection for reforestations. The climate change scenarios were taken from the IPCC's Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES. We used the scenarios A1B (rapid and successful economic development and B1 (high level of environmental and social consciousness combined with a globally coherent approach to a more sustainable development. Our results indicate that the effects of different climate change scenarios on the future productivity and species composition of German forests are minor compared to the effects of forest management. Conclusions The inherent natural adaptive capacity of forest ecosystems to changing environmental conditions is limited by the long life time of trees. Planting of adapted species and forest management will reduce the impact of predicted future climate change on forests.

  2. EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON POULTRY PRODUCTION IN ONDO STATE, NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.B. Adesiji

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The study assesses the effects of climate change on poultry production in Ondo State, Nigeria. Eighty three (83 poultry farmers were interviewed to elicit relevant information in line with the objectives of the study. Descriptive statistics and inferential statistical tools were used for data analysis. Findings revealed that majority (93.3% of the respondents are aware of climate change, 78%, 98.8% and 86.7% of the respondents agreed that temperature fluctuation, increased in sunshine intensity and global warming has a negative effects on poultry production, 72.4% of the respondents agreed that prices of feed grains are usually high in hot and dry seasons which may affect cost of production and number of birds to raise for egg and meat production in the farm, 73.5% of the respondents agreed that climate change has effect on feed grain availability, this implies that high temperature and low rainfall are climatic factors that affect general grain harvest, their supply to the market and ultimately cost of poultry production. the findings further revealed that 94% of the respondents agreed that climate change affects egg and meat production pattern and 95.2% of the respondents agreed that moist climatic conditions encouraged the distribution and development of diseases. Infrential statistics shows that there is a significant relationship between respondents' socio-economic characteristics and perception of poultry farmers on effects of climate change on poultry production since p > 0.05 (r = 0.454, p= 0.001, the findings also shows that there is a significant relationship between socio-economic characteristics of respondents and their level of awareness of climate change since the p > 0.05 (r = 0.652, p = 0.001. it is recomended extension agents and other development agencies need to educate the poultry farmers more about the effects posed by climate change on poultry production and intensify awareness campaign to poultry farmers on how to reduce

  3. Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

    2014-12-01

    Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

  4. Climate Change and Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-01

    expansion of large hydropower and reservoir construction can increase social resilience through associated economic development . However, the same...of the most vulnerable countries globally to the consequences of climate change, Vietnam is highly likely to experience a variety of negative...iii ABSTRACT Climate Change and Vietnam As one of the most vulnerable countries globally to the consequences

  5. Climate Change Crunch Time

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xie Zhenhua

    2011-01-01

    CLIMATE change is a severe challenge facing humanity in the 21st century and thus the Chinese Government always attaches great importance to the problem.Actively dealing with climate change is China's important strategic policy in its social and economic development.China will make a positive contribution to the world in this regard.

  6. Climate change effects on the hydrological regime of small non-perennial river basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pumo, Dario; Caracciolo, Domenico; Viola, Francesco; Noto, Leonardo V

    2016-01-15

    Recent years have been witnessing an increasing interest on global climate change and, although we are only at the first stage of the projected trends, some signals of climate alteration are already visible. Climate change encompasses modifications in the characteristics of several interrelated climate variables, and unavoidably produces relevant effects on almost all the natural processes related to the hydrological cycle. This study focuses on potential impacts of climate variations on the streamflow regime of small river basins in Mediterranean, seasonally dry, regions. The paper provides a quantitative evaluation of potential modifications in the flow duration curves (FDCs) and in the partitioning between surface and subsurface contributions to streamflow, induced by climate changes projected over the next century in different basins, also exploring the role exerted by different soil–vegetation compositions. To this aim, it is used a recent hydrological model, which is calibrated at five Sicilian (Italy) basins using a past period with available streamflow observations. The model is then forced by daily precipitation and reference evapotranspiration series representative of the current climatic conditions and two future temporal horizons, referring to the time windows 2045–2065 and 2081–2100. Future climatic series are generated by a weather generator, based on a stochastic downscaling of an ensemble of General Circulation Models. The results show how the projected climatic modifications are differently reflected in the hydrological response of the selected basins, implying, in general, a sensible downshift of the FDCs, with a significant reduction in the mean annual streamflow, and substantial alterations in streamflow seasonality and in the relative importance of the surface and subsurface components. The projected climate change impact on the hydrological regime of ephemeral rivers could have important implications for the water resource management and

  7. Managing Climate Change Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB1 Aspendale, Victoria 3195 (Australia)

    2003-07-01

    Issues of uncertainty, scale and delay between action and response mean that 'dangerous' climate change is best managed within a risk assessment framework that evolves as new information is gathered. Risk can be broadly defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence; the latter measured as vulnerability to greenhouse-induced climate change. The most robust way to assess climate change damages in a probabilistic framework is as the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance. Because vulnerability is dominated by local factors, global vulnerability is the aggregation of many local impacts being forced beyond their coping ranges. Several case studies, generic sea level rise and temperature, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and water supply in an Australian catchment, are used to show how local risk assessments can be assessed then expressed as a function of global warming. Impacts treated thus can be aggregated to assess global risks consistent with Article 2 of the UNFCCC. A 'proof of concept' example is then used to show how the stabilisation of greenhouse gases can constrain the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds at both the both local and global scale. This analysis suggests that even if the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages can be estimated, the likelihood of being able to meet a cost-benefit target is limited by both physical and socio-economic uncertainties. In terms of managing climate change risks, adaptation will be most effective at reducing vulnerability likely to occur at low levels of warming. Successive efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases will reduce the likelihood of reaching levels of global warming from the top down, with the highest potential temperatures being avoided first, irrespective of contributing scientific uncertainties. This implies that the first cuts in emissions will always produce the largest economic benefits in terms of avoided

  8. Climate Change Impacts and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Effects on US Water Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change will have potentially significant effects on freshwater quality due to increases in river and lake temperatures, changes in the magnitude and seasonality of river runoff, and more frequent and severe extreme events. These physical impacts will in turn have economic...

  9. Effect of Climate Change on Mediterranean Winter Ranges of Two Migratory Passerines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellería, José L; Fernández-López, Javier; Fandos, Guillermo

    2016-01-01

    We studied the effect of climate change on the distribution of two insectivorous passerines (the meadow pipit Anthus pratensis and the chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita) in wintering grounds of the Western Mediterranean basin. In this region, precipitation and temperature can affect the distribution of these birds through direct (thermoregulation costs) or indirect effects (primary productivity). Thus, it can be postulated that projected climate changes in the region will affect the extent and suitability of their wintering grounds. We studied pipit and chiffchaff abundance in several hundred localities along a belt crossing Spain and Morocco and assessed the effects of climate and other geographical and habitat predictors on bird distribution. Multivariate analyses reported a positive effect of temperature on the present distribution of the two species, with an additional effect of precipitation on the meadow pipit. These climate variables were used with Maxent to model the occurrence probabilities of species using ring recoveries as presence data. Abundance and occupancy of the two species in the study localities adjusted to the distribution models, with more birds in sectors of high climate suitability. After validation, these models were used to forecast the distribution of climate suitability according to climate projections for 2050-2070 (temperature increase and precipitation reduction). Results show an expansion of climatically suitable sectors into the highlands by the effect of warming on the two species, and a retreat of the meadow pipit from southern sectors related to rain reduction. The predicted patterns show a mean increase in climate suitability for the two species due to the warming of the large highland expanses typical of the western Mediterranean.

  10. The coming health crisis: indirect health effects of global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Samuel S; Bernstein, Aaron

    2011-02-01

    Global climate change threatens the health of hundreds of millions of people. While much has been written about the direct impacts of climate change on health as a result of more severe storms, more intense heat stress, changes in the distribution of infectious disease, and reduced air quality, we are concerned that the indirect impacts of a disrupted climate system may be orders of magnitude more important in terms of the human suffering they cause. Because these indirect effects will result from changes in biophysical systems, which are inherently complex, there is significant uncertainty about their magnitude, timing, and location. However, the uncertainty that shrouds this issue should not be cause for complacency; rather it should serve as an organizing principle for adaptation to its ill effects.

  11. Performance Based Evaluation of Concrete Strength under Various Curing Conditions to Investigate Climate Change Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tae-Kyun Kim

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the manifestation of global warming-induced climate change has been observed through super typhoons, heavy snowfalls, torrential rains, and extended heat waves. These climate changes have been occurring all over the world and natural disasters have caused severe damage and deterioration of concrete structures and infrastructure. In an effort to deal with these problems due to extreme and abnormal climate changes, studies have been conducted to develop construction technologies and design guidelines. Nevertheless, study results applicable to construction sites continue to be ineffective and insufficient. Therefore, this study proposes ways to cope with climate change by considering the effect of concrete curing condition variations on concrete material performance. More specifically, the 3-, 7- and 28-day compressive and split tensile strength properties of concrete mix cured under various climatic factors including temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and sunlight exposure time were evaluated to determine whether the concrete meets the current design requirements. Thereafter, a performance based evaluation (PBE was performed using satisfaction probabilities based on the test values to understand the problems associated with the current mix proportion design practice and to identify countermeasures to deal with climate change-induced curing conditions.

  12. Climatic effects of 1950–2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols – Part 2: Climate response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. M. Leibensperger

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the climate response to US anthropogenic aerosol sources over the 1950 to 2050 period by using the NASA GISS general circulation model (GCM and comparing to observed US temperature trends. Time-dependent aerosol distributions are generated from the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model applied to historical emission inventories and future projections. Radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols peaked in 1970–1990 and has strongly declined since due to air quality regulations. We find that the regional radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols elicits a strong regional climate response, cooling the central and eastern US by 0.5–1.0 °C on average during 1970–1990, with the strongest effects on maximum daytime temperatures in summer and autumn. Aerosol cooling reflects comparable contributions from direct and indirect (cloud-mediated radiative effects. Absorbing aerosol (mainly black carbon has negligible warming effect. Aerosol cooling reduces surface evaporation and thus decreases precipitation along the US east coast, but also increases the southerly flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico resulting in increased cloud cover and precipitation in the central US. Observations over the eastern US show a lack of warming in 1960–1980 followed by very rapid warming since, which we reproduce in the GCM and attribute to trends in US anthropogenic aerosol sources. Present US aerosol concentrations are sufficiently low that future air quality improvements are projected to cause little further warming in the US (0.1 °C over 2010–2050. We find that most of the potential warming from aerosol source controls in the US has already been realized over the 1980–2010 period.

  13. [Effects of global climate change on the C, N, and P stoichiometry of terrestrial plants].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Jiang-Tao; Wu, Jian-Bo; Wang, Xiao-Dan

    2013-09-01

    The response patterns of biogeochemical cycle and the adaptation strategies of terrestrial plants under the background of global climate change have received extensive attention. This paper analyzed the effects of climate warming and precipitation change on the plant C:N:P in different ecosystems, the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on the plant nutrients in different photosynthetic pathways, and the short-term and long-term effects of the responses of soil-plant nutrients to nitrogen deposition, and explored the possible underlying mechanisms in terms of the plant physiological properties in relation to soil available nutrients, which could provide theoretical bases for studying the nutrients (C, N and P) transmission and regulation mechanisms between soil and plant, the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems, and the responses of biogeochemical cycle to global climate change. The existing problems and the further research directions in this study area were proposed.

  14. Interactive Effects of Urban Land Use and Climate Change on Biogeochemical Cycles (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouyat, R. V.

    2009-12-01

    Urban land-use change can affect biogeochemical cycles through altered disturbance regimes, landscape management practices (e.g., irrigation and fertilization), built structures, and altered environments (heat island effect, pollution, introduction of non-native species, loss of native species). As a result, the conversion of native to urban ecological systems has been shown to significantly affect carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles at local, regional, and global scales. These changes have created novel habitats and ecosystems, which have no analogue in the history of life. Nonetheless, some of the environmental changes occurring in urban areas are analogous to the changes expected in climate by the end of the century, e.g. atmospheric increase in CO2 and an increase in air temperatures, which can be utilized as a “natural experiment” to investigate global change effects on large scale ecosystem processes. Moreover, as analogues of expected future environments, urban ecological systems may act as reservoirs of plant and animal species for adjoining landscapes that are expected to undergo relatively rapid climate changes in the next 100 years. Urban land-use change by itself may contribute to changes in regional weather patterns and long-term changes in global climate, which will depend on the net effect of converting native systems to urban systems and the comparison of per capita “footprints” between urban, suburban, and rural inhabitants. My objectives are to 1) assess the impact of changes in urban land-use on climate change and in turn how climate change may affect urban biogeochemical cycles and 2) discuss the potential for urban ecosystems to mitigate green house gas emissions.

  15. The Effects of Weather on Oilseed Rape (OSR Yield in China: Future Implications of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaqin He

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the role of climatic factors on crop yields is essential in predicting the future impact of climate change. In order to understand the influence of climatic factors on OSR, detailed farm-level panel data from 2566 farms across 67 counties of the 6 major OSR production regions in China, from the surveys conducted by the national OSR industry project between 2008 and 2013, were used to examine the contribution of changes in selected climatic variables between 2008 and 2013 to yield variation. Spatial and temporal patterns of the relationships between OSR yield, climatic factors were estimated together with the effects of farmer adaptation and management practices on yield variability. The analysis revealed that yields in the low-latitude production regions were more sensitive to temperature increases and likely to decline. Precipitation iwas the most influential factor on yield at the first two growth stages; temperature and sunshine hours were most important at the third and fourth growth stages, respectively. Labour input was the most influential management factor affecting yields compared with fertilizer and other inputs. The study concludes that projection of future climate change impacts will need inter alia to incorporate more sophisticated and detailed measures of climatic variables than simple means of temperature and precipitation, incorporating timing in relation to plant growth and yield.

  16. Communities under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

  17. Empowering America's Communities to Prepare for the Effects of Climate Change: Developing Actionable Climate Science Under the President's Climate Action Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duffy, P. B.; Colohan, P.; Driggers, R.; Herring, D.; Laurier, F.; Petes, L.; Ruffo, S.; Tilmes, C.; Venkataraman, B.; Weaver, C. P.

    2014-12-01

    Effective adaptation to impacts of climate change requires best-available information. To be most useful, this information should be easily found, well-documented, and translated into tools that decision-makers use and trust. To meet these needs, the President's Climate Action Plan includes efforts to develop "actionable climate science". The Climate Data Initiative (CDI) leverages the Federal Government's extensive, open data resources to stimulate innovation and private-sector entrepreneurship in support of actions to prepare for climate change. The Initiative forges commitments and partnerships from the private, NGO, academic, and public sectors to create data-driven tools. Open data from Federal agencies to support this innovation is available on Climate.Data.gov, initially focusing on coastal flooding but soon to expand to topics including food, energy, water, energy, transportation, and health. The Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT) will facilitate access to data-driven resilience tools, services, and best practices, including those accessible through the CDI. The CRT will also include access to training and tutorials, case studies, engagement forums, and other information sources. The Climate Action Plan also calls for a public-private partnership on extreme weather risk, with the goal of generating improved assessments of risk from different types of extreme weather events, using methods and data that are transparent and accessible. Finally, the U.S. Global Change Research Program and associated agencies work to advance the science necessary to inform decisions and sustain assessments. Collectively, these efforts represent increased emphasis across the Federal Government on the importance of information to support climate resilience.

  18. The effect on Arctic climate of atmospheric meridional energy-transport changes studied based on the CESM climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grand Graversen, Rune

    2016-04-01

    The Arctic amplification of global warming and the pronounced Arctic sea-ice retreat constitute some of the most alarming signs of global climate change. These Arctic changes are likely a consequence of a combination of several processes, for instance enhanced uptake of solar radiation in the Arctic due to a lowering of the planetary albedo, and increase in the local Arctic greenhouse effect due to enhanced moister flux from lower latitudes. Many of the proposed processes appear to be dependent on each other, for instance an increase in water-vapour advection to the Arctic enhances the greenhouse effect in the Arctic and the longwave radiation to the surface which melts the sea ice and causes an increase in absorption of solar radiation. The effects of albedo changes have been investigated in earlier studies based on model experiments designed to examine these effects specifically. Here we instead focus on the effects of meridional transport changes into the Arctic, both of water vapour and dry-static energy. Hence we here present results of model experiments with the CESM climate model designed specifically to extract the effects of the changes of the two transport components.

  19. Effects of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion, Solar UV Radiation, and Climate Change on Biogeochemical Cycling: Interactions and Feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change modulates the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, particularly for carbon cycling, resulting in UV-mediated positive or negative feedbacks on climate. Possible positive feedbacks discussed in this assessment...

  20. Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: progress report, 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) is one of three Panels that regularly informs the Parties (countries) to the Montreal Protocol on the effects of ozone depletion and the consequences of climate change interactions with respect to human health, animals, plants, bi...

  1. Herbivory in global climate change research: direct effects of rising temperature on insect herbivores

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bale, J.S.; Masters, G.J.; Hodkinson, I.D.; Awmack, C.; Bezemer, T.M.; Brown, V.K.; Butterfield, J.; Buse, A.; Coulson, J.C.; Farrar, J.; Good, J.E.G.; Harrington, R.; Hartley, S.; Jones, T.H.; Lindroth, R.L.; Press, M.C.; Symrnioudis, I.; Watt, A.D.; Whittaker, J.B.

    2002-01-01

    This review examines the direct effects of climate change on insect herbivores. Temperature is identified as the dominant abiotic factor directly affecting herbivorous insects. There is little evidence of any direct effects Of CO2 or UVB. Direct impacts of precipitation have been largely neglected i

  2. Effects of climate change on water quality in the Yaquina Estuary, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    As part of a larger study to examine the effect of climate change (CC) on estuarine resources, we simulated the effect of rising sea level, alterations in river discharge, and increasing atmospheric temperatures on water quality in the Yaquina Estuary. Due to uncertainty in the ...

  3. Modeling of Regional Climate Change Effects on Ground-Level Ozone and Childhood Asthma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, Perry E.; Knowlton, Kim; Carr, Jessie L.; Kinney, Patrick L.

    2011-01-01

    Background The adverse respiratory effects of ground-level ozone are well-established. Ozone is the air pollutant most consistently projected to increase under future climate change. Purpose To project future pediatric asthma emergency department visits associated with ground-level ozone changes, comparing 1990s to 2020s. Methods This study assessed future numbers of asthma emergency department visits for children aged 0–17 years using (1) baseline New York City metropolitan area emergency department rates, (2) a dose–response relationship between ozone levels and pediatric asthma emergency department visits, and (3) projected daily 8-hour maximum ozone concentrations for the 2020s as simulated by a global-to-regional climate change and atmospheric chemistry model. Sensitivity analyses included population projections and ozone precursor changes. This analysis occurred in 2010. Results In this model, climate change could cause an increase in regional summer ozone-related asthma emergency department visits for children aged 0–17 years of 7.3% across the New York City metropolitan region by the 2020s. This effect diminished with inclusion of ozone precursor changes. When population growth is included, the projections of morbidity related to ozone are even larger. Conclusions The results of this analysis demonstrate that the use of regional climate and atmospheric chemistry models make possible the projection of local climate change health effects for specific age groups and specific disease outcomes – such as emergency department visits for asthma. Efforts should be made to improve on this type of modeling to inform local and wider-scale climate change mitigation and adaptation policy. PMID:21855738

  4. Quantifying the effects of climate change and land use change on water resources in Denmark using an integrated watershed model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Sonnenborg, Torben; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a quantitative comparison of plausible climate and land use change impacts on the hydrology of a large-scale agricultural catchment. An integrated, distributed hydrological model was used to simulate changes in the groundwater system and its discharge to rivers and drains...... to current values. Changing the land use from grass to forest had a minor effect on groundwater recharge, whereas CO2 effects on transpiration resulted in a relatively large increase in recharge. This study has shown that climate change has the most substantial effect on the hydrology in this catchment......, whereas other factors such as irrigation, CO2 effects on transpiration, and land use changes affect the water balance to a lesser extent....

  5. My Morning Coffee: The Effect of Climate Change on the Economies of Coffee-Producing Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shilling, K.; Brauman, K. A.

    2012-12-01

    Through its effect on export crops, climate change will have important effects on economic systems and government capacity in sub-Saharan Africa. We show that climate change effects on three important export crops - coffee, cocoa and cotton - will undermine large portions of the economy, not just the rural farmers who grow these crops. Our analysis is based high-resolution data on crop location, temperature, and water requirements in conjunction with new projections for temperature increases and precipitation changes in sub-Saharan Africa. Our focus on export crops is distinct from most work on the effects of climate change on agriculture, which often focuses on subsistence and food crops. We posit that substantial and important effects on the economy and political systems will come from negative impacts on cash crops, which underpin many economies in sub-Saharan Africa. For instance, 3% of cropland in Uganda (and 2% in Ethiopia) is used for coffee production and over 3.5 million households are involved in the sector; by contrast, 7% of cropland in Uganda (and 11% in Ethiopia) is used for maize, which contributes much less to the formal economy. The relationship between the value of coffee exported and government revenue illustrates the importance of coffee to political and economic stability. A drop in the export value of coffee by 10% in Uganda will drive government revenue down by 20%, and while there is uncertainty around the exact impact of climate change, it is likely that production will take a turn for the worse. We use these factors to assess reliance of select country's economy on these crops, from the farmer to the exporter; the sensitivity of the crops to variation in the climate; and the subsequent impact on government capacity. Our research illustrates how strongly the impacts of climate change are linked to economic and political structures.

  6. Climate change effects on airborne pathogenic bioaerosol concentrations: a scenario analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Leuken, J P G; Swart, A N; Droogers, P; van Pul, A; Heederik, D; Havelaar, A H

    2016-01-01

    The most recent IPCC report presented further scientific evidence for global climate change in the twenty-first century. Important secondary effects of climate change include those on water resource availability, agricultural yields, urban healthy living, biodiversity, ecosystems, food security, and public health. The aim of this explorative study was to determine the range of expected airborne pathogen concentrations during a single outbreak or release in a future climate compared to a historical climatic period (1981-2010). We used five climate scenarios for the periods 2016-2045 and 2036-2065 defined by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and two conversion tools to create hourly future meteorological data sets. We modelled season-averaged airborne pathogen concentrations by means of an atmospheric dispersion model and compared these data to historical (1981-2010) modelled concentrations. Our results showed that modelled concentrations were modified several percentage points on average as a result of climate change. On average, concentrations were reduced in four out of five scenarios. Wind speed and global radiation were of critical importance, which determine horizontal and vertical dilution. Modelled concentrations decreased on average, but large positive and negative hourly averaged effects were calculated (from -67 to +639 %). This explorative study shows that further research should include pathogen inactivation and more detailed probability functions on precipitation, snow, and large-scale circulation.

  7. The effects of changing climate on faunal depth distributions determine winners and losers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Alastair; Thatje, Sven

    2015-01-01

    Changing climate is predicted to impact all depths of the global oceans, yet projections of range shifts in marine faunal distributions in response to changing climate seldom evaluate potential shifts in depth distribution. Marine ectotherms' thermal tolerance is limited by their ability to maintain aerobic metabolism (oxygen- and capacity-limited tolerance), and is functionally associated with their hypoxia tolerance. Shallow-water (ocean warming and deoxygenation confirms previous predictions made based solely on consideration of the latitudinal effects of ocean warming (e.g. Cheung et al., 2009), that polar taxa are most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, with Arctic fauna experiencing the greatest FEN contraction. In contrast, the inclusion of depth in the conceptual model reveals for the first time that temperate fauna as well as tropical fauna may experience substantial FEN expansion with ocean warming and deoxygenation, rather than FEN maintenance or contraction suggested by solely considering latitudinal range shifts.

  8. Multiple stressors, nonlinear effects and the implications of climate change impacts on marine coastal ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewitt, Judi E; Ellis, Joanne I; Thrush, Simon F

    2016-08-01

    Global climate change will undoubtedly be a pressure on coastal marine ecosystems, affecting not only species distributions and physiology but also ecosystem functioning. In the coastal zone, the environmental variables that may drive ecological responses to climate change include temperature, wave energy, upwelling events and freshwater inputs, and all act and interact at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. To date, we have a poor understanding of how climate-related environmental changes may affect coastal marine ecosystems or which environmental variables are likely to produce priority effects. Here we use time series data (17 years) of coastal benthic macrofauna to investigate responses to a range of climate-influenced variables including sea-surface temperature, southern oscillation indices (SOI, Z4), wind-wave exposure, freshwater inputs and rainfall. We investigate responses from the abundances of individual species to abundances of functional traits and test whether species that are near the edge of their tolerance to another stressor (in this case sedimentation) may exhibit stronger responses. The responses we observed were all nonlinear and some exhibited thresholds. While temperature was most frequently an important predictor, wave exposure and ENSO-related variables were also frequently important and most ecological variables responded to interactions between environmental variables. There were also indications that species sensitive to another stressor responded more strongly to weaker climate-related environmental change at the stressed site than the unstressed site. The observed interactions between climate variables, effects on key species or functional traits, and synergistic effects of additional anthropogenic stressors have important implications for understanding and predicting the ecological consequences of climate change to coastal ecosystems.

  9. Welfare impacts of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hof, Andries F.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change can affect well-being in poor economies more than previously shown if its effect on economic growth, and not only on current production, is considered. But this result does not necessarily suggest greater mitigation efforts are required.

  10. Differentiating the effects of climate and land use change on European biodiversity: A scenario analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermaat, Jan E; Hellmann, Fritz A; van Teeffelen, Astrid J A; van Minnen, Jelle; Alkemade, Rob; Billeter, Regula; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Boitani, Luigi; Cabeza, Mar; Feld, Christian K; Huntley, Brian; Paterson, James; WallisDeVries, Michiel F

    2017-04-01

    Current observed as well as projected changes in biodiversity are the result of multiple interacting factors, with land use and climate change often marked as most important drivers. We aimed to disentangle the separate impacts of these two for sets of vascular plant, bird, butterfly and dragonfly species listed as characteristic for European dry grasslands and wetlands, two habitats of high and threatened biodiversity. We combined articulations of the four frequently used SRES climate scenarios and associated land use change projections for 2030, and assessed their impact on population trends in species (i.e. whether they would probably be declining, stable or increasing). We used the BIOSCORE database tool, which allows assessment of the effects of a range of environmental pressures including climate change as well as land use change. We updated the species lists included in this tool for our two habitat types. We projected species change for two spatial scales: the EU27 covering most of Europe, and the more restricted biogeographic region of 'Continental Europe'. Other environmental pressures modelled for the four scenarios than land use and climate change generally did not explain a significant part of the variance in species richness change. Changes in characteristic bird and dragonfly species were least pronounced. Land use change was the most important driver for vascular plants in both habitats and spatial scales, leading to a decline in 50-100% of the species included, whereas climate change was more important for wetland dragonflies and birds (40-50 %). Patterns of species decline were similar in continental Europe and the EU27 for wetlands but differed for dry grasslands, where a substantially lower proportion of butterflies and birds declined in continental Europe, and 50 % of bird species increased, probably linked to a projected increase in semi-natural vegetation. In line with the literature using climate envelope models, we found little divergence

  11. Climate change or variable weather

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baron, Nina; Kjerulf Petersen, Lars

    2015-01-01

    Climate scenarios predict that an effect of climate change will be more areas at risk of extensive flooding. This article builds on a qualitative case study of homeowners in the flood-prone area of Lolland in Denmark and uses the theories of Tim Ingold and Bruno Latour to rethink the way we...... understand homeowners’ perception of climate change and local flood risk. Ingold argues that those perceptions are shaped by people’s experiences with and connections to their local landscape. People experience the local variability of the weather, and not global climate change as presented in statistical...... data and models. This influences the way they understand the future risks of climate change. Concurrently, with the theory of Latour, we can understand how those experiences with the local landscape are mediated by the existing water-managing technologies such as pumps and dikes. These technologies...

  12. Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Payne, J.T.; Wood, A.W.; Hamlet, A.F.; Palmer, R.N.; Lettenmaier, D.P. [Department of Civil Engineering, 164 Wilcox Hall, P.O. Box 352700, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-2700 (United States)

    2004-07-01

    The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Columbia River Basin (CRB) were evaluated using simulations from the U.S. Department of Energy and National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (DOE/NCAR PCM). This study focuses on three climate projections for the 21st century based on a 'business as usual' (BAU) global emissions scenario, evaluated with respect to a control climate scenario based on static 1995 emissions. Time-varying monthly PCM temperature and precipitation changes were statistically downscaled and temporally disaggregated to produce daily forcings that drove a macro-scale hydrologic simulation model of the Columbia River basin at 1/4-degree spatial resolution. For comparison with the direct statistical downscaling approach, a dynamical downscaling approach using a regional climate model (RCM) was also used to derive hydrologic model forcings for 20-year subsets from the PCM control climate (1995-2015) scenario and from the three BAU climate (2040-2060) projections. The statistically downscaled PCM scenario results were assessed for three analysis periods (denoted Periods 1-3: 2010-2039, 2040-2069, 2070-2098) in which changes in annual average temperature were +0.5, +1.3 and +2.1C, respectively, while critical winter season precipitation changes were -3, +5 and +1 percent. For RCM, the predicted temperature change for the 2040-2060 period was +1.2C and the average winter precipitation change was -3 percent, relative to the RCM control climate. Due to the modest changes in winter precipitation, temperature changes dominated the simulated hydrologic effects by reducing winter snow accumulation, thus shifting summer streamflow to the winter. The hydrologic changes caused increased competition for reservoir storage between firm hydropower and instream flow targets developed pursuant to the Endangered Species Act listing of Columbia River salmonids. We examined several alternative

  13. Advancing the framework for considering the effects of climate change on worker safety and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulte, P A; Bhattacharya, A; Butler, C R; Chun, H K; Jacklitsch, B; Jacobs, T; Kiefer, M; Lincoln, J; Pendergrass, S; Shire, J; Watson, J; Wagner, G R

    2016-11-01

    In 2009, a preliminary framework for how climate change could affect worker safety and health was described. That framework was based on a literature search from 1988-2008 that supported seven categories of climate-related occupational hazards: (1) increased ambient temperature; (2) air pollution; (3) ultraviolet radiation exposure; (4) extreme weather; (5) vector-borne diseases and expanded habitats; (6) industrial transitions and emerging industries; and (7) changes in the built environment. This article reviews the published literature from 2008-2014 in each of the seven categories. Additionally, three new topics related to occupational safety and health are considered: mental health effects, economic burden, and potential worker safety and health impacts associated with the nascent field of climate intervention (geoengineering). Beyond updating the literature, this article also identifies key priorities for action to better characterize and understand how occupational safety and health may be associated with climate change events and ensure that worker health and safety issues are anticipated, recognized, evaluated, and mitigated. These key priorities include research, surveillance, risk assessment, risk management, and policy development. Strong evidence indicates that climate change will continue to present occupational safety and health hazards, and this framework may be a useful tool for preventing adverse effects to workers.

  14. Advancing the framework for considering the effects of climate change on worker safety and health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulte, P.A.; Bhattacharya, A.; Butler, C.R.; Chun, H.K.; Jacklitsch, B.; Jacobs, T.; Kiefer, M.; Lincoln, J.; Pendergrass, S.; Shire, J.; Watson, J.; Wagner, G.R.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT In 2009, a preliminary framework for how climate change could affect worker safety and health was described. That framework was based on a literature search from 1988–2008 that supported seven categories of climate-related occupational hazards: (1) increased ambient temperature; (2) air pollution; (3) ultraviolet radiation exposure; (4) extreme weather; (5) vector-borne diseases and expanded habitats; (6) industrial transitions and emerging industries; and (7) changes in the built environment. This article reviews the published literature from 2008–2014 in each of the seven categories. Additionally, three new topics related to occupational safety and health are considered: mental health effects, economic burden, and potential worker safety and health impacts associated with the nascent field of climate intervention (geoengineering). Beyond updating the literature, this article also identifies key priorities for action to better characterize and understand how occupational safety and health may be associated with climate change events and ensure that worker health and safety issues are anticipated, recognized, evaluated, and mitigated. These key priorities include research, surveillance, risk assessment, risk management, and policy development. Strong evidence indicates that climate change will continue to present occupational safety and health hazards, and this framework may be a useful tool for preventing adverse effects to workers. PMID:27115294

  15. Effects of climatic change and climatic variability on the Thornthwaite moisture index in the Delaware River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Thornthwaite moisture index is useful as an indicator of the supply of water in an area relative to the demand under prevailing climatic conditions. This study examines the effects of long-term changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) on the Thornthwaite moisture index in the Delaware River basin. Temperature and precipitation estimates for doubled-CO2 conditions derived from three general circulation models (GCMs) are used to study the response of the moisture index for steady-state doubled-CO2 conditions and for gradual changes from present to doubled-CO2 conditions. Results of the study indicate that temperature and precipitation under doubled-CO2 conditions will cause the Thornthwaite moisture index to decrease, implying significantly drier conditions in the Delaware River basin than currently exist. The amount of decrease depends, however, on the GCM climatic-change scenario used. The results also indicate that future changes in the moisture index will be partly masked by natural year-to-year variability in temperature and precipitation. ?? 1992 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

  16. Climate change and health

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Last, J.M. [Ottawa Univ., ON (Canada); Chiotti, Q.P. [Environment Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2001-12-31

    Adverse effects such as heat-related illnesses are felt on human health as a result of climate change. Those effects can also be the increased frequency and severity of extreme weather resulting in injury and death, a wider array of insect vectors for diseases, as well as increased risk of allergic, food-borne and water-borne diseases. Coastal ecosystems are altered, sea levels are rising and millions of people will need to relocate in the next century as a result of global warming. Keeping disaster plans, maintaining epidemiological monitoring and surveillance, and issuing advisory messages concerning the risks to human health are some of the responses required from public health officials. The establishment of standards, the development of policies on food and nutrition and the defining of priorities for research are important aspects that must be kept in mind. The authors indicated that multidisciplinary approaches are better suited to find solutions to the challenges encountered due to climate change than the narrow methods used in the past. refs., 4 tabs.

  17. Effect of Climate Change on Hydrology, Sediment and Nutrient Losses in Two Lowland Catchments in Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Marcinkowski

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Future climate change is projected to have significant impact on water resources availability and quality in many parts of the world. The objective of this paper is to assess the effect of projected climate change on water quantity and quality in two lowland catchments (the Upper Narew and the Barycz in Poland in two future periods (near future: 2021–2050, and far future: 2071– 2100. The hydrological model SWAT was driven by climate forcing data from an ensemble of nine bias-corrected General Circulation Models—Regional Climate Models (GCM-RCM runs based on the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment—European Domain (EURO-CORDEX. Hydrological response to climate warming and wetter conditions (particularly in winter and spring in both catchments includes: lower snowmelt, increased percolation and baseflow and higher runoff. Seasonal differences in the response between catchments can be explained by their properties (e.g., different thermal conditions and soil permeability. Projections suggest only moderate increases in sediment loss, occurring mainly in summer and winter. A sharper increase is projected in both catchments for TN losses, especially in the Barycz catchment characterized by a more intensive agriculture. The signal of change in annual TP losses is blurred by climate model uncertainty in the Barycz catchment, whereas a weak and uncertain increase is projected in the Upper Narew catchment.

  18. Climate change and water scarcity effects on the rural income distribution in the Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quiroga, Sonia; Suárez, Cristina

    2015-04-01

    This paper examines the effects of climate change and water scarcity on the agricultural outputs in the Mediterranean region. By now the effects of water scarcity as a response to climate change or policy restrictions has been analyzed with response functions considering the direct effects on crop productivity. Here we consider a complementary indirect effect on social distribution of incomes which is essential in the long term. We estimate crop production functions for a range of Mediterranean crops in Spain and we use a decomposition of the Gini coefficient to estimate the impact of climate change and water scarcity on yield disparities. This social aspect is important for climate change policies since it can be determinant for the public acceptation of certain adaptation measures in a context of water scarcity. We provide the empirical estimations for the marginal effects on the two considered direct and indirect impacts. In our estimates we consider both bio-physical and socio-economic aspects to conclude that there are long term implications on both competitiveness and social disparities. We find disparities in the adaptation strategies depending on the crop and the region analyzed.

  19. Population and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Landis MacKellar, F.; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2000-11-01

    Population and Climate Change provides the first systematic in-depth treatment of links between two major themes of the 21st century: population growth (and associated demographic trends such as aging) and climate change. It is written by a multidisciplinary team of authors from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis who integrate both natural science and social science perspectives in a way that is comprehensible to members of both communities. The book will be of primary interest to researchers in the fields of climate change, demography, and economics. It will also be useful to policy-makers and NGOs dealing with issues of population dynamics and climate change, and to teachers and students in courses such as environmental studies, demography, climatology, economics, earth systems science, and international relations.

  20. Criminality and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Rob

    2016-08-01

    The impacts of climate change imply a reconceptualization of environment-related criminality. Criminology can offer insight into the definitions and dynamics of this behaviour, and outline potential areas of redress.

  1. Effects of Climate Change and Shifts in Forest Composition on Forest Net Primary Production

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jyh-Min Chiang; Louts R. Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Kim J. Brown

    2008-01-01

    Forests are dynamic in both structure and species composition, and these dynamics are strongly Influenced by climate.However, the net effects of future tree species composition on net primary production (NPP) are not well understood. The objective of this work was to model the potential range shifts of tree species (DISTRIB Model) and predict their impacts on NPP (PnET-Ⅱ Model) that will be associated with alterations in species composition. We selected four 200 × 200 km areas In Wisconsin, Maine, Arkansas, and the Ohio-West Virginia area, representing focal areas of potential species range shifts. PnET-Ⅱ model simulations were carried out assuming that all forests achieved steady state, of which the species compositions were predicted by DISTRIB model with no migration limitation. The total NPP under the current climate ranged from 552 to 908 g C/m2 per year. The effects of potential species redistributions on NPP were moderate (-12% to +8%) compared with the influence of future climatic changes (-60% to +25%). The direction and magnitude of climate change effects on NPP were largely dependent on the degree of warming and water balance. Thus, the magnitude of future climate change can affect the feedback system between the atmosphere and biosphere.

  2. Predicting the effect of climate change on wildfire behavior and initial attack success

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Riley, William; Fried, Jeremy S.; Gilless, J. Keith; Riley, William J.; Moody, Tadashi J.; Simon de Blas, Clara; Hayhoe, Katharine; Moritz, Max; Stephens, Scott; Torn, Margaret

    2007-12-01

    This study focused on how climate change-induced effects on weather will translate into changes in wildland fire severity and outcomes in California, particularly on the effectiveness of initial attack at limiting the number of fires that escape initial attack. The results indicate that subtle shifts in fire behavior of the sort that might be induced by the climate changes anticipated for the next century are of sufficient magnitude to generate an appreciable increase in the number of fires that escape initial attack. Such escapes are of considerable importance in wildland fire protection planning, given the high cost to society of a catastrophic escape like those experienced in recent decades in the Berkeley-Oakland, Santa Barbara, San Diego, or Los Angeles areas. However, at least for the three study areas considered, it would appear that relatively modest augmentations to existing firefighting resources might be sufficient to compensate for change-induced changes in wildland fire outcomes.

  3. Separating climate change signals into thermodynamic, lapse-rate and circulation effects: Theory and application to the European summer climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroener, Nico; Kotlarski, Sven; Fischer, Erich; Lüthi, Daniel; Zubler, Elias; Schär, Christoph

    2016-04-01

    Climate models robustly project a strong overall summer warming across Europe showing a characteristic north-south gradient with enhanced warming and drying in southern Europe. However, the processes that are responsible for this pattern are not fully understood. We here employ an extended surrogate or pseudo-warming approach to disentangle the contribution of different mechanisms to this response pattern. The basic idea of the surrogate technique is to use a regional climate model and apply a large-scale warming to the lateral boundary conditions of a present-day reference simulation, while maintaining the relative humidity (and thus implicitly increasing the specific moisture content). In comparison to previous studies, our approach includes two important extensions: First, different vertical warming profiles are applied in order to separate the effects of a mean warming from lapse-rate effects. Second, a twin-design is used, in which the temperature change signal is not only added to present-day conditions, but also subtracted from a scenario experiment. We use the regional climate model COSMO-CLM with a grid spacing of approximately 50 km (EURO-CORDEX EUR-44 setup) using transient simulations (1950-2100) with the RCP8.5 emissions scenario. We demonstrate that the aforementioned extensions provide an elegant way to separate the full climate change signal into contributions from large-scale thermodynamics (LST), lapse-rate (LR) and large-scale circulation (LSC). In our framework the LSC effect also includes effects due to changes in land-sea contrast and the spatial variations of the SST warming pattern. We find that the LST effect yields a large-scale warming across Europe without any distinct latitudinal gradient. The LR effect, which is quantified for the first time in our study, leads to a stronger warming and some drying in Southern Europe. It explains about 50% of the warming amplification over the Iberian Peninsula, thus demonstrating the important role of

  4. Separating climate change signals into thermodynamic, lapse-rate and circulation effects: theory and application to the European summer climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kröner, Nico; Kotlarski, Sven; Fischer, Erich; Lüthi, Daniel; Zubler, Elias; Schär, Christoph

    2016-07-01

    Climate models robustly project a strong overall summer warming across Europe showing a characteristic north-south gradient with enhanced warming and drying in southern Europe. However, the processes that are responsible for this pattern are not fully understood. We here employ an extended surrogate or pseudo-warming approach to disentangle the contribution of different mechanisms to this response pattern. The basic idea of the surrogate technique is to use a regional climate model and apply a large-scale warming to the lateral boundary conditions of a present-day reference simulation, while maintaining the relative humidity (and thus implicitly increasing the specific moisture content). In comparison to previous studies, our approach includes two important extensions: first, different vertical warming profiles are applied in order to separate the effects of a mean warming from lapse-rate effects. Second, a twin-design is used, in which the climate change signals are not only added to present-day conditions, but also subtracted from a scenario experiment. We demonstrate that these extensions provide an elegant way to separate the full climate change signal into contributions from large-scale thermodynamic (TD), lapse-rate (LR), and circulation and other remaining effects (CO). The latter in particular include changes in land-ocean contrast and spatial variations of the SST warming patterns. We find that the TD effect yields a large-scale warming across Europe with no distinct latitudinal gradient. The LR effect, which is quantified for the first time in our study, leads to a stronger warming and some drying in southern Europe. It explains about 50 % of the warming amplification over the Iberian Peninsula, thus demonstrating the important role of lapse-rate changes. The effect is linked to an extending Hadley circulation. The CO effect as inherited from the driving GCM is shown to further amplify the north-south temperature change gradient. In terms of mean summer

  5. Long memory effect of past climate change in Vostok ice core records

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamamoto, Yuuki, E-mail: yyama@ed.yama.tus.ac.jp [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Tokyo University of Science, Yamaguchi (Japan); Kitahara, Naoki [Department of Electronics and Computer Science, Tokyo University of Science, Yamaguchi (Japan); Kano, Makoto [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Tokyo University of Science, Yamaguchi (Japan)

    2012-03-20

    Time series analysis of Vostok ice core data has been done for understanding of palaeoclimate change from a stochastic perspective. The Vostok ice core is one of the proxy data for palaeoclimate in which local temperature and precipitation rate, moisture source conditions, wind strength and aerosol fluxes of marine, volcanic, terrestrial, cosmogenic and anthropogenic origin are indirectly stored. Palaeoclimate data has a periodic feature and a stochastic feature. For the proxy data, spectrum analysis and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) were conducted to characterize periodicity and scaling property (long memory effect) in the climate change. The result of spectrum analysis indicates there exist periodicities corresponding to the Milankovitch cycle in past climate change occurred. DFA clarified time variability of scaling exponents (Hurst exponent) is associated with abrupt warming in past climate.

  6. Effect of Climate Change on Hydrologic Ecotones Over the Pacific Northwest River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wherry, S.; Gonzalez-Baird, J.; Moradkhani, H.

    2009-12-01

    Current modeling efforts continue to indicate that the effects of climate change will be both global and local in scale, and that ecohydrologic factors including altered precipitation events, reduced system yields due to streamflow changes, increased flooding and changes to current floodplain characteristics, and changes in vegetation will be affected. Therefore, using technology such as light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data, future general circulation model (GCM) data, and advanced floodplain analyses to predict the changes to ecohydrologic factors is critical for understanding the effects of climate change on the regional scale watershed. This study considers the effects of three different GCM climate change emissions scenarios (high, middle of the road and low) as proposed by the University of Washington’s Climate Impacts Group using daily, downscaled Fourth IPCC Assessment data over the Pacific Northwest. Our study region is the Lower Tualatin watershed in Tualatin, Oregon over the historical period of 1960-1999 and future periods of 2010-2049 and 2050-2089. Using the LiDAR data, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) software, Sacramento model, flood frequency analysis and HEC-RAS, we were able to delineate the basin and extract the vegetative features, calculate the 50-year return interval flow within the basin and predict the 50-year floodplain for 2049 and 2089. A specialized geo-processing algorithm was developed to delineate hydrologic “ecotones”, a floodplain-connected area used in evaluating the condition of riparian areas and streams. A complete current and future conditions analysis was performed for the vegetation within the ecotones in order to: 1) provide an existing inventory of vegetation within the watershed and 2) to predict the affect that climate change may have on vegetation within the watershed.

  7. Climate Change Effects on Iron Availability to Arctic Phytoplankton

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maldonado, Maria Teresa; Li, Jingxuan; Semeniuk, David; Schuback, Nina; Hoppe, Clara; AWI/UBC Collaboration

    2016-09-01

    Phytoplankton, unicellular algae, are responsible for 50% of earth's photosynthesis, and for a significant consumption of atmospheric CO2. Iron (Fe) is essential for phytoplankton, but is extremely depleted in seawater, limiting photosynthesis in 30% of the global ocean. Oceanic Fe bioavailability is determined by physical and chemical processes. The Arctic Ocean is experiencing the greatest decrease in seawater pH (termed ocean acidification). Simultaneously, ice retreat is promoting higher light intensity in Arctic Ocean. We investigated the effects of ocean acidification and high light on Fe availability to Arctic phytoplankton. Iron uptake rates by plankton, using the radionuclide 55Fe, were used as a proxy for Fe bioavailability. In an Arctic summer research cruise, we measured Fe uptake by two phytoplankton populations subjected to two light levels, as well as present CO2 levels (400ppm) or those expected by 2100 (1100 ppm). Our results demonstrated that high CO2 decreases Fe availability, while high light increases it, suggesting that future Fe bioavailability might be similar to present day. However, the detrimental effects of high CO2 were more pronounced in the plankton population exposed to higher seawater temperature. Future studies should investigate the interaction among light, CO2 and temperature on the Fe physiology of Arctic phytoplankton.

  8. Estimating the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower and Power Marketing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sale, Michael J [ORNL; Kao, Shih-Chieh [ORNL; Uria Martinez, Rocio [ORNL; Wei, Yaxing [ORNL

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy is currently preparing an assessment of the effects of climate change on federal hydropower, as directed by Congress in Section 9505 of the Secure Water Act of 2009 (P.L. 111-11). This paper describes the assessment approach being used in a Report to Congress currently being prepared by Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The 9505 assessment will examine climate change effects on water available for hydropower operations and the future power supplies marketed from federal hydropower projects. It will also include recommendations from the Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs) on potential changes in operation or contracting practices that could address these effects and risks of climate change. Potential adaption and mitigation strategies will also be identified. Federal hydropower comprises approximately half of the U.S. hydropower portfolio. The results from the 9505 assessment will promote better understanding among federal dam owners/operators of the sensitivity of their facilities to water availability, and it will provide a basis for planning future actions that will enable adaptation to climate variability and change. The end-users of information are Congressional members, their staff, the PMAs and their customers, federal dam owners/operators, and the DOE Water Power Program.

  9. Effect of climate change on runoff of Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium from land to surface water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterk, Ankie; Schijven, Jack; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria; de Nijs, Ton

    2016-05-15

    Faeces originating from wildlife, domestic animals or manure-fertilized fields, is considered an important source of zoonotic pathogens to which people may be exposed by, for instance, bathing or drinking-water consumption. An increase in runoff, and associated wash-off of animal faeces from fields, is assumed to contribute to the increase of disease outbreaks during periods of high precipitation. Climate change is expected to increase winter precipitation and extreme precipitation events during summer, but has simultaneously also other effects such as temperature rise and changes in evapotranspiration. The question is to what extent the combination of these effects influence the input of zoonotic pathogens to the surface waters. To quantitatively analyse the impacts of climate change on pathogen runoff, pathogen concentrations reaching surface waters through runoff were calculated by combining an input model for catchment pathogen loads with the Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS). Runoff of Cryptosporidium and Campylobacter was evaluated under different climate change scenarios and by applying different scenarios for sources of faecal pollution in the catchments, namely dairy cows and geese and manure fertilization. Model evaluation of these scenarios shows that climate change has little overall impact on runoff of Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium from land to the surface waters. Even though individual processes like runoff fluxes, pathogen release and dilution are affected, either positively or negatively, the net effect on the pathogen concentration in surface waters and consequently also on infection risks through recreation seems limited.

  10. Climate change experiments in Hamburg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubasch, U. [DKRZ, Hamburg (Germany)

    1995-12-31

    Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the simulations with present day conditions (1980-1990) is too late, because then a considerable part of the warming since the beginning of the industrialization (ca. 1750) has been neglected. Furthermore it has only recently become clear that the sulphat-aerosols play an important role in the present day climate and in the future climate. The effect of the sulphat aerosols has first been simulated in a number of equilibrium simulations with mixed layer models, but nowadays with globally coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models

  11. Nitrogen cycling in heathland ecosystems and effects of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andresen, Louise Christoffersen

    heath types. At both heaths, plants preferred the inorganic ammonium, yet all nitrogen forms were acquired by both plants and soil microorganisms. At the temperate heath, soil microorganisms acquired the 15N 13C labeled amino acids (glycine, glutamic acid and phenylalanine) as intact compounds, and both...... decomposition for both species. In warmed plots an early senescence was observed with effects on green Deschampsia biomass, on Deschampsia root nitrogen concentration and on acquisition of 15N from glycine. In this thesis, experiments using the stable isotopes 15N and 13C as tracers of ammonium and amino acid...... dominant plant species showed indications of phenylalanine acquisition as intact compounds. The thesis consists of an introduction collecting the most important findings from the four manuscripts....

  12. Climate change and cities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Satterthwaite, David

    2006-10-15

    What is done, or not done, in cities in relation to climate change over the next 5-10 years will affect hundreds of millions of people, because their lives and livelihoods are at risk from global warming. What is done in cities will also have a major influence on whether the escalating risks for the whole planet will be reduced or eliminated. Climate change needs to be considered in all development plans and investments - local, regional, national and international. Urban growth must be made more climate-resilient and help reduce, rather than increase, greenhouse gas emissions. This will not be done by the market; it can only be done by governments.

  13. The effect of climate change on skin disease in North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaffenberger, Benjamin H; Shetlar, David; Norton, Scott A; Rosenbach, Misha

    2017-01-01

    Global temperatures continue to rise, reaching new records almost every year this decade. Although the causes are debated, climate change is a reality. Consequences of climate change include melting of the arctic ice cap, rising of sea levels, changes in precipitation patterns, and increased severe weather events. This article updates dermatologists about the effects of climate change on the epidemiology and geographic ranges of selected skin diseases in North America. Although globalization, travel, and trade are also important to changing disease and vector patterns, climate change creates favorable habitats and expanded access to immunologically naïve hosts. Endemic North American illnesses such as Lyme disease, leishmaniasis, and dimorphic fungal infections have recently expanded the geographic areas of risk. As temperatures increase, epidemic viral diseases such as hand-foot-and-mouth disease may develop transmission seasons that are longer and more intense. Chikungunya and dengue are now reported within the southern United States, with Zika on the horizon. Cutaneous injuries from aquatic and marine organisms that have expanding habitats and longer durations of peak activity include jellyfish envenomation, cercarial dermatitis, and seabather eruption, among others. Skin cancer rates may also be affected indirectly by changes in temperature and associated behaviors.

  14. Effects of different regional climate model resolution and forcing scales on projected hydrologic changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza, Pablo A.; Mizukami, Naoki; Ikeda, Kyoko; Clark, Martyn P.; Gutmann, Ethan D.; Arnold, Jeffrey R.; Brekke, Levi D.; Rajagopalan, Balaji

    2016-10-01

    We examine the effects of regional climate model (RCM) horizontal resolution and forcing scaling (i.e., spatial aggregation of meteorological datasets) on the portrayal of climate change impacts. Specifically, we assess how the above decisions affect: (i) historical simulation of signature measures of hydrologic behavior, and (ii) projected changes in terms of annual water balance and hydrologic signature measures. To this end, we conduct our study in three catchments located in the headwaters of the Colorado River basin. Meteorological forcings for current and a future climate projection are obtained at three spatial resolutions (4-, 12- and 36-km) from dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, and hydrologic changes are computed using four different hydrologic model structures. These projected changes are compared to those obtained from running hydrologic simulations with current and future 4-km WRF climate outputs re-scaled to 12- and 36-km. The results show that the horizontal resolution of WRF simulations heavily affects basin-averaged precipitation amounts, propagating into large differences in simulated signature measures across model structures. The implications of re-scaled forcing datasets on historical performance were primarily observed on simulated runoff seasonality. We also found that the effects of WRF grid resolution on projected changes in mean annual runoff and evapotranspiration may be larger than the effects of hydrologic model choice, which surpasses the effects from re-scaled forcings. Scaling effects on projected variations in hydrologic signature measures were found to be generally smaller than those coming from WRF resolution; however, forcing aggregation in many cases reversed the direction of projected changes in hydrologic behavior.

  15. Inhalation anaesthetics and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mads Peter Sulbæk; Sander, S P; Nielsen, O J

    2010-01-01

    Although the increasing abundance of CO(2) in our atmosphere is the main driver of the observed climate change, it is the cumulative effect of all forcing agents that dictate the direction and magnitude of the change, and many smaller contributors are also at play. Isoflurane, desflurane......, and sevoflurane are widely used inhalation anaesthetics. Emissions of these compounds contribute to radiative forcing of climate change. To quantitatively assess the impact of the anaesthetics on the forcing of climate, detailed information on their properties of heat (infrared, IR) absorption and atmospheric...

  16. Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.; Torn, Margaret S.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Thomson, Allison M.; Chini, Louise M.; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter; Hurtt, George; Wise, Marshall A.

    2013-06-01

    Proposed climate mitigation measures do not account for direct biophysical climate impacts of land-use change (LUC), nor do the stabilization targets modeled for the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To examine the significance of such effects on global and regional patterns of climate change, a baseline and alternative scenario of future anthropogenic activity are simulated within the Integrated Earth System Model, which couples the Global Change Assessment Model, Global Land-use Model, and Community Earth System Model. The alternative scenario has high biofuel utilization and approximately 50% less global forest cover compared to the baseline, standard RCP4.5 scenario. Both scenarios stabilize radiative forcing from atmospheric constituents at 4.5 W/m2 by 2100. Thus, differences between their climate predictions quantify the biophysical effects of LUC. Offline radiative transfer and land model simulations are also utilized to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms driving the coupled response. Boreal deforestation is found to strongly influence climate due to increased albedo coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Globally, the alternative scenario yields a 21st century warming trend that is 0.5 °C cooler than baseline, driven by a 1 W/m2 mean decrease in radiative forcing that is distributed unevenly around the globe. Some regions are cooler in the alternative scenario than in 2005. These results demonstrate that neither climate change nor actual radiative forcing are uniquely related to atmospheric forcing targets such as those found in the RCP’s, but rather depend on particulars of the socioeconomic pathways followed to meet each target.

  17. INTERACTIVE EFFECTS OF SOLAR UV RADIATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLING

    Science.gov (United States)

    This paper assesses research on the interactions of UV radiation (280-400 nm) and global climate change with global biogeochemical cycles at the Earth's surface. The effects of UV-B (280-315 nm), which are dependent on the stratospheric ozone layer, on biogeochemical cycles are o...

  18. The Effect of Climate Change on Optimal Wetlands and Waterfowl Management in Western Canada

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Whitey, P.; Kooten, van G.C.

    2011-01-01

    Warmer temperatures and a decrease in precipitation in the 21st century could severely deplete wetlands in the prairie pothole region of western Canada. In this study, we employ linear regression analysis to determine the casual effect of climate change on wetlands in this region, with temperature,

  19. Long-term effects of climate change on vegetation and carbon dynamics in peat bogs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijmans, M.M.P.D.; Mauquoy, D.; van Geel, B.; Berendse, F.

    2008-01-01

    Questions: What are the long-term effects of climate change on the plant species composition and carbon sequestration in peat bogs? Methods: We developed a bog ecosystem model that includes vegetation, carbon, nitrogen and water dynamics. Two groups of vascular plant species and three groups of Spha

  20. Projections of the effects of climate change on allergic asthma : the contribution of aerobiology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cecchi, L.; D'Amato, G.; Ayres, J. G.; Galan, C.; Forastiere, F.; Forsberg, B.; Gerritsen, J.; Nunes, C.; Behrendt, H.; Akdis, C.; Dahl, R.; Annesi-Maesano, I.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is unequivocal and represents a possible threat for patients affected by allergic conditions. It has already had an impact on living organisms, including plants and fungi with current scenarios projecting further effects by the end of the century. Over the last three decades, studies

  1. Modelling climate change effects on a dutch coastal groundwater system using airborne electromagnetic measurements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Faneca S̀anchez, M.; Gunnink, J.L.; Baaren, E.S. van; Oude Essink, G.H.P.; Siemon, B.; Auken, E.; Elderhorst, W.; Louw, P.G.B. de

    2012-01-01

    The forecast of climate change effects on the groundwater system in coastal areas is of key importance for policy makers. The Dutch water system has been deeply studied because of its complex system of low-lying areas, dunes, land won to the sea and dikes, but nowadays large efforts are still being

  2. Climate Change Effects on Heat Waves and Future Heat Wave-Associated IHD Mortality in Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Zacharias

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The influence of future climate change on the occurrence of heat waves and its implications for heat wave-related mortality due to ischemic heart diseases (IHD in Germany is studied. Simulations of 19 regional climate models with a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° forced by the moderate climate change scenario A1B are analyzed. Three model time periods of 30 years are evaluated, representing present climate (1971–2000, near future climate (2021–2050, and remote future climate (2069–2098. Heat waves are defined as periods of at least three consecutive days with daily mean air temperature above the 97.5th percentile of the all-season temperature distribution. Based on the model simulations, future heat waves in Germany will be significantly more frequent, longer lasting and more intense. By the end of the 21st century, the number of heat waves will be tripled compared to present climate. Additionally, the average duration of heat waves will increase by 25%, accompanied by an increase of the average temperature during heat waves by about 1 K. Regional analyses show that stronger than average climate change effects are observed particularly in the southern regions of Germany. Furthermore, we investigated climate change impacts on IHD mortality in Germany applying temperature projections from 19 regional climate models to heat wave mortality relationships identified in a previous study. Future IHD excess deaths were calculated both in the absence and presence of some acclimatization (i.e., that people are able to physiologically acclimatize to enhanced temperature levels in the future time periods by 0% and 50%, respectively. In addition to changes in heat wave frequency, we incorporated also changes in heat wave intensity and duration into the future mortality evaluations. The results indicate that by the end of the 21st century the annual number of IHD excess deaths in Germany attributable to heat waves is expected to rise by factor 2

  3. Predicting effects of climate and land use change on human well-being via changes in ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landuse and climate change have affected biological systems in many parts of the world, and are projected to further adversely affect associated ecosystem goods and services, including provisioning of clean air, clean water, food, and biodiversity. Such adverse effects on ecosyst...

  4. Effects of atmospheric and climate change at the timberline of the Central European Alps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieser, Gerhard; Matyssek, Rainer; Luzian, Roland; Zwerger, Peter; Pindur, Peter; Oberhuber, Walter; Gruber, Andreas

    2009-06-01

    This review considers potential effects of atmospheric change and climate warming within the timberline ecotone of the Central European Alps. After focusing on the impacts of ozone (O(3)) and rising atmospheric CO(2) concentration, effects of climate warming on the carbon and water balance of timberline trees and forests will be outlined towards conclusions about changes in tree growth and treeline dynamics.Presently, ambient ground-level O(3) concentrations do not exert crucial stress on adult conifers at the timberline of the Central European Alps. In response to elevated atmospheric CO(2)Larix decidua showed growth increase, whereas no such response was found in Pinus uncinata. Overall climate warming appears as the factor responsible for the observed growth stimulation of timberline trees.Increased seedling re-establishment in the Central European Alps however, resulted from invasion into potential habitats rather than upward migration due to climate change, although seedlings will only reach tree size upon successful coupling with the atmosphere and thus loosing the beneficial microclimate of low stature vegetation.In conclusion, future climate extremes are more likely than the gradual temperature increase to control treeline dynamics in the Central European Alps.

  5. Can Climate Change Negotiations Succeed?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Hovi

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available More than two decades of climate change negotiations have produced a series of global climate agreements, such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Copenhagen Accords, but have nevertheless made very limited progress in curbing global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper considers whether negotiations can succeed in reaching an agreement that effectively addresses the climate change problem. To be effective, a climate agreement must cause substantial emissions reductions either directly (in the agreement's own lifetime or indirectly (by paving the way for a future agreement that causes substantial emissions reductions directly. To reduce global emissions substantially, an agreement must satisfy three conditions. Firstly, participation must be both comprehensive and stable. Secondly, participating countries must accept deep commitments. Finally, the agreement must obtain high compliance rates. We argue that three types of enforcement will be crucial to fulfilling these three conditions: (1 incentives for countries to ratify with deep commitments, (2 incentives for countries that have ratified with deep commitments to abstain from withdrawal, and (3 incentives for countries having ratified with deep commitments to comply with them. Based on assessing the constraints that characterize the climate change negotiations, we contend that adopting such three-fold potent enforcement will likely be politically infeasible, not only within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, but also in the framework of a more gradual approach. Therefore, one should not expect climate change negotiations to succeed in producing an effective future agreement—either directly or indirectly.

  6. Climate change impacts on coral reefs: synergies with local effects, possibilities for acclimation, and management implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ateweberhan, Mebrahtu; Feary, David A; Keshavmurthy, Shashank; Chen, Allen; Schleyer, Michael H; Sheppard, Charles R C

    2013-09-30

    Most reviews concerning the impact of climate change on coral reefs discuss independent effects of warming or ocean acidification. However, the interactions between these, and between these and direct local stressors are less well addressed. This review underlines that coral bleaching, acidification, and diseases are expected to interact synergistically, and will negatively influence survival, growth, reproduction, larval development, settlement, and post-settlement development of corals. Interactions with local stress factors such as pollution, sedimentation, and overfishing are further expected to compound effects of climate change. Reduced coral cover and species composition following coral bleaching events affect coral reef fish community structure, with variable outcomes depending on their habitat dependence and trophic specialisation. Ocean acidification itself impacts fish mainly indirectly through disruption of predation- and habitat-associated behavior changes. Zooxanthellate octocorals on reefs are often overlooked but are substantial occupiers of space; these also are highly susceptible to bleaching but because they tend to be more heterotrophic, climate change impacts mainly manifest in terms of changes in species composition and population structure. Non-calcifying macroalgae are expected to respond positively to ocean acidification and promote microbe-induced coral mortality via the release of dissolved compounds, thus intensifying phase-shifts from coral to macroalgal domination. Adaptation of corals to these consequences of CO2 rise through increased tolerance of corals and successful mutualistic associations between corals and zooxanthellae is likely to be insufficient to match the rate and frequency of the projected changes. Impacts are interactive and magnified, and because there is a limited capacity for corals to adapt to climate change, global targets of carbon emission reductions are insufficient for coral reefs, so lower targets should be

  7. Mapping Climate Change Hazards: Using GIS to Identify Social Vulnerability to the Effects of Environmental Hazards in the UK

    OpenAIRE

    Batool, Najya

    2010-01-01

    Research suggests that the precise nature and effects of climate change, including changes to the Earth’s climate patterns, can have an adverse environmental impact on localities, regions, and countries. Research shows that socially disadvantaged communities continue to endure a disproportionate burden of environmental stresses, but little is known about the effects of climate change on the future socio-spatial distribution of these disadvantaged communities in the United Kingdom (UK). This...

  8. Predicting the effect of climate change on African trypanosomiasis: integrating epidemiology with parasite and vector biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sean; Shrestha, Sourya; Tomlinson, Kyle W; Vuong, Holly

    2012-05-07

    Climate warming over the next century is expected to have a large impact on the interactions between pathogens and their animal and human hosts. Vector-borne diseases are particularly sensitive to warming because temperature changes can alter vector development rates, shift their geographical distribution and alter transmission dynamics. For this reason, African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness), a vector-borne disease of humans and animals, was recently identified as one of the 12 infectious diseases likely to spread owing to climate change. We combine a variety of direct effects of temperature on vector ecology, vector biology and vector-parasite interactions via a disease transmission model and extrapolate the potential compounding effects of projected warming on the epidemiology of African trypanosomiasis. The model predicts that epidemics can occur when mean temperatures are between 20.7°C and 26.1°C. Our model does not predict a large-range expansion, but rather a large shift of up to 60 per cent in the geographical extent of the range. The model also predicts that 46-77 million additional people may be at risk of exposure by 2090. Future research could expand our analysis to include other environmental factors that influence tsetse populations and disease transmission such as humidity, as well as changes to human, livestock and wildlife distributions. The modelling approach presented here provides a framework for using the climate-sensitive aspects of vector and pathogen biology to predict changes in disease prevalence and risk owing to climate change.

  9. Recent Advances in Understanding the Effects of Climate Change on Coral Reefs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew S. Hoey

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is one of the greatest threats to the persistence of coral reefs. Sustained and ongoing increases in ocean temperatures and acidification are altering the structure and function of reefs globally. Here, we summarise recent advances in our understanding of the effects of climate change on scleractinian corals and reef fish. Although there is considerable among-species variability in responses to increasing temperature and seawater chemistry, changing temperature regimes are likely to have the greatest influence on the structure of coral and fish assemblages, at least over short–medium timeframes. Recent evidence of increases in coral bleaching thresholds, local genetic adaptation and inheritance of heat tolerance suggest that coral populations may have some capacity to respond to warming, although the extent to which these changes can keep pace with changing environmental conditions is unknown. For coral reef fishes, current evidence indicates increasing seawater temperature will be a major determinant of future assemblages, through both habitat degradation and direct effects on physiology and behaviour. The effects of climate change are, however, being compounded by a range of anthropogenic disturbances, which may undermine the capacity of coral reef organisms to acclimate and/or adapt to specific changes in environmental conditions.

  10. Quantification of climate change effects on extreme precipitation used for high resolution hydrologic design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    Design of urban drainage structures should include the climatic changes anticipated over the technical lifetime of the system. In Northern Europe climate changes implies increasing occurrences of extreme rainfall. Three approaches to quantify the impact of climate changes on extreme rainfall are ...

  11. The effect of climate change and natural variability on wind loading values for buildings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steenbergen, R.D.J.M.; Koster, T.; Geurts, C.P.W.

    2012-01-01

    Since 2006, a number of countries developed reports on climate change following the IPCC 4th assessment reports. For the Netherlands, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) presented four new climate scenarios. Typically, climate change is described in terms of average changes, but mu

  12. Investigating uncertainty of climate change effect on entering runoff to Urmia Lake Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Razmara

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The largest lake in Iran, Urmia Lake, has been faced with a sharp decline in water surface in recent years. This decline is putting the survival of Urmia Lake at risk. Due to the fact that the water surface of lakes is affected directly by the entering runoff, herein we study the effect of climate change on the runoff entering Urmia Lake. Ten climate models among AOGCM-AR4 models in the future time period 2013–2040 will be used, under the emission scenarios A2 and B1. The downscaling method used in this research is the change factor-LARS method, while for simulating the runoff, the artificial neural network was applied. First, both the 30-yr and monthly scenarios of climate change, temperature, and precipitation of the region were generated and weighted by the Beta function (β. Then, the cumulative density function (cdf for each month was computed. Calculating the scenarios of climate change and precipitation at levels of 25, 50, and 75% of cdf functions, and introducing them into LARS-wg model, the time series of temperature and precipitation in the region in the future time period were computed considering the uncertainty of climate variability. Then, introducing the time series of temperature and precipitation at different risk levels into the artificial neural network, the future runoff was generated. The findings illustrate a decrease of streamflow into Urmia Lake in scenario A2 at the three risk levels 25, 50, and 75% by, respectively, −21, −13, and −0.3%, and an increase by, respectively, 4.7, 13.8, and 18.9% in scenario B1. Also, scenario A2 with its prediction of a warm and dry climate suggests more critical conditions for the future compared to scenario B1 and its cool, humid climate.

  13. Habitat-specific effects of climate change on a low-mobility Arctic spider species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bowden, Joseph James; Hansen, Rikke Reisner; Olsen, Kent;

    2015-01-01

    habitats. Such differences between habitats may influence the effects of climate changes on animals and this could be especially true in low-mobility species. Suitable model systems to test this idea, however, are rare. We examined how proxies of reproductive success (body size, juvenile/female ratios......Abstract Terrestrial ecosystems are heterogeneous habitat mosaics of varying vegetation types that are differentially affected by climate change. Arctic plant communities, for example, are changing faster in moist habitats than in dry habitats and abiotic changes like snowmelt vary locally among......) and sex ratios have changed in low-mobility crab spiders collected systematically over a 17-year period (1996–2012) from two distinct habitats (mesic and arid dwarf shrub heath) at Zackenberg in northeast Greenland. We identified all adults in the collection to confirm that they represented just one...

  14. Climate Change in Africa: Impacts and Effects on the Inhabitants of the Lake Chad Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abubakar, B.; Tahir, S. M.; Olisa, O.

    2009-05-01

    The Department of Energy and Climate Change defined climate as the average weather experienced over a long period. This includes temperature, wind and rainfall patterns. The climate of the Earth is not static, and has changed many times in response to a variety of natural causes. Due to human activities in emmiting green house gases has resulted the Earth to get warmed by 0.74°C over the last hundred years. Around 0.4°C of this warming has occurred since the 1970s. Climate is now one of the major phenomenon threatening lives and humanity in general since the beginning of industrial revolution. Climate exerts a profound influence on the lives of poor populations in the Lake Chad region of Africa who depend on fishing and crop cultivation for livelihood and sustenance, who are unprotected against climate-related diseases, who lacked secure access to water and food and who are vulnerable to hydro meteorological hazard. The effects of climate change on the study area are many and include diminishing resources and conflicts over the available limited water resources. The Lake Chad region is a fragile area with high climate variability and extremes of weather. As this inland water is used for domestic and agricultural purposes, salt mining, as well as transportation by Nigerians, Nigeriens, Chadian and Cameroonians, it is an area of trans-boundary water conflicts. This paper examines the part played by climate change in the decline of fishery resources and livelihood activities in the Lake Chad region. Data from field studies, structured interview and secondary sources show that fish catches and livelihood activities have declined tremendously in recent times due to several factors including overexploitation and increasing demands on the aquatic resources. Findings from the study show that droughty periods have resulted in the reduction of open lake water surface from about 25,000 km2 in 1973 to less than 2,000 km2 in the 1990s. This has led to the diminishing aquatic

  15. Effects of climate change, CO2 and O3 on wheat productivity in Eastern China, singly and in combination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Fulu; Feng, Zhaozhong; Tang, Haoye; Chen, Yi; Kobayashi, Kazuhiko

    2017-03-01

    Air pollution and climate change are increasing threats to agricultural production and food security. Extensive studies have focused on the effect of climate change, but the interactive effects of multiple global change factors are poorly understood. Here, we incorporate the interactions between climate change, carbon dioxide (CO2) and ozone (O3) into an eco-physiological mechanistic model based on three years of O3 Free-Air Concentration Elevation (O3-FACE) experiments. We then investigate the effects of climate change, elevated CO2 concentration ([CO2]) and rising O3 concentration ([O3]) on wheat growth and productivity in eastern China in 1996-2005 (2000s) and 2016-2025 (2020s) under two climate change scenarios, singly and in combination. We find the interactive effects of climate change, CO2 and O3 on wheat productivity have spatially explicit patterns; the effect of climate change dominates the general pattern, which is however subject to the large uncertainties of climate change scenarios. Wheat productivity is estimated to increase by 2.8-9.0% due to elevated [CO2] however decline by 2.8-11.7% due to rising [O3] in the 2020s, relative to the 2000s. The combined effects of CO2 and O3 are less than that of O3 only, on average by 4.6-5.2%, however with O3 damage outweighing CO2 benefit in most of the region. This study demonstrates a more biologically meaningful and appropriate approach for assessing the interactive effects of climate change, CO2 and O3 on crop growth and productivity. Our findings promote the understanding on the interactive effects of multiple global change factors across contrasting climate conditions, cast doubt on the potential of CO2 fertilization effect in offsetting possible negative effect of climate change on crop productivity as suggested by many previous studies.

  16. Potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems of the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, M.V.; Pace, M.L.; Mather, J.R.; Murdoch, Peter S.; Howarth, R.W.; Folt, C.L.; Chen, C.-Y.; Hemond, Harold F.; Flebbe, P.A.; Driscoll, C.T.

    1997-01-01

    Numerous freshwater ecosystems, dense concentrations of humans along the eastern seaboard, extensive forests and a history of intensive land use distinguish the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region. Human population densities are forecast to increase in portions of the region at the same time that climate is expected to be changing. Consequently, the effects of humans and climatic change are likely to affect freshwater ecosystems within the region interactively. The general climate, at present, is humid continental, and the region receives abundant precipitation. Climatic projections for a 2 ??CO2 atmosphere, however, suggest warmer and drier conditions for much of this region. Annual temperature increases ranging from 3-5??C are projected, with the greatest increases occurring in autumn or winter. According to a water balance model, the projected increase in temperature will result in greater rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration. This could cause a 21 and 31% reduction in annual stream flow in the southern and northern sections of the region, respectively, with greatest reductions occurring in autumn and winter. The amount and duration of snow cover is also projected to decrease across the region, and summer convective thunderstorms are likely to decrease in frequency but increase in intensity. The dual effects of climate change and direct anthropogenic stress will most likely alter hydrological and biogeochemical processes, and, hence, the floral and faunal communities of the region's freshwater ecosystems. For example, the projected increase in evapotranspiration and evaporation could eliminate most bog ecosystems, and increases in water temperature may increase bioaccumulation, and possibly biomagnification, of organic and inorganic contaminants. Not all change may be adverse. For example, a decrease in runoff may reduce the intensity of ongoing estuarine eutrophication, and acidification of aquatic habitats during the spring snowmelt period may be

  17. Impacts of rainfall variability and expected rainfall changes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Pol, T D; van Ierland, E C; Gabbert, S; Weikard, H-P; Hendrix, E M T

    2015-05-01

    Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change given a predefined system performance target, for example a flood risk standard. Rainfall variability causes system performance estimates to be volatile. These estimates may be used to recurrently evaluate system performance. This paper presents a model for this setting, and develops a solution method to identify cost-effective investments in stormwater drainage adaptations. Runoff and water levels are simulated with rainfall from stationary rainfall distributions, and time series of annual rainfall maxima are simulated for a climate scenario. Cost-effective investment strategies are determined by dynamic programming. The method is applied to study the choice of volume for a storage basin in a Dutch polder. We find that 'white noise', i.e. trend-free variability of rainfall, might cause earlier re-investment than expected under projected changes in rainfall. The risk of early re-investment may be reduced by increasing initial investment. This can be cost-effective if the investment involves fixed costs. Increasing initial investments, therefore, not only increases water system robustness to structural changes in rainfall, but could also offer insurance against additional costs that would occur if system performance is underestimated and re-investment becomes inevitable.

  18. Climate-change effects on soils: Accelerated weathering, soil carbon and elemental cycling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qafoku, Nikolla

    2015-04-01

    Climate change [i.e., high atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations (≥400 ppm); increasing air temperatures (2-4°C or greater); significant and/or abrupt changes in daily, seasonal, and inter-annual temperature; changes in the wet/dry cycles; intensive rainfall and/or heavy storms; extended periods of drought; extreme frost; heat waves and increased fire frequency] is and will significantly affect soil properties and fertility, water resources, food quantity and quality, and environmental quality. Biotic processes that consume atmospheric CO2, and create organic carbon (C) that is either reprocessed to CO2 or stored in soils are the subject of active current investigations, with great concern over the influence of climate change. In addition, abiotic C cycling and its influence on the inorganic C pool in soils is a fundamental global process in which acidic atmospheric CO2 participates in the weathering of carbonate and silicate minerals, ultimately delivering bicarbonate and Ca2+ or other cations that precipitate in the form of carbonates in soils or are transported to the rivers, lakes, and oceans. Soil responses to climate change will be complex, and there are many uncertainties and unresolved issues. The objective of the review is to initiate and further stimulate a discussion about some important and challenging aspects of climate-change effects on soils, such as accelerated weathering of soil minerals and resulting C and elemental fluxes in and out of soils, soil/geo-engineering methods used to increase C sequestration in soils, soil organic matter (SOM) protection, transformation and mineralization, and SOM temperature sensitivity. This review reports recent discoveries, identifies key research needs, and highlights opportunities offered by the climate-change effects on soils.

  19. Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate

  20. Are tropical small mammals physiologically vulnerable to Arrhenius effects and climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovegrove, Barry G; Canale, Cindy; Levesque, Danielle; Fluch, Gerhard; Reháková-Petrů, Milada; Ruf, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    There is some urgency in the necessity to incorporate physiological data into mechanistic, trait-based, demographic climate change models. Physiological responses at the individual level provide the mechanistic link between environmental changes and individual performances and hence population dynamics. Here we consider the causal relationship between ambient temperature (Ta) and metabolic rate (MR), namely, the Arrhenius effect, which is directly affected by global warming through increases in average global air temperatures and the increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. We measured and collated data for several small, free-ranging tropical arboreal mammals and evaluated their vulnerability to Arrhenius effects and putative heat stress associated with climate change. Skin temperatures (Tskin) were obtained from free-ranging tarsiers (Tarsius syrichta) on Bohol Island, Philippines. Core body temperature (Tb) was obtained from the greater hedgehog tenrec (Setifer setosus) and the gray brown mouse lemur (Microcebus ravelobensis) from Ankarafantsika, Madagascar. Tskin for another mouse lemur, Microcebus griseorufus, was obtained from the literature. All four species showed evidence of hyperthermia during the daytime rest phase in the form of either Tskin or Tb that was higher than the normothermic Tb during the nighttime active phase. Potentially, tropical arboreal mammals with the lowest MRs and Tb, such as tarsiers, are the most vulnerable to sustained heat stress because their Tb is already close to Ta. Climate change may involve increases in MRs due to Arrhenius effects, especially during the rest phase or during torpor and hibernation. The most likely outcome of increased Arrhenius effects with climate change will be an increase in energy expenditure at the expense of other critical functions such as reproduction or growth and will thus affect fitness. However, we propose that these hypothetical Arrhenius costs can be, and in some

  1. Changing heathlands in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ransijn, Johannes

    ) a study on the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2-concentration, warming and drought on the photosynthetic capacity and phenology of C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in an outdoor climate change experiment on a grassy heathland in Denmark; 4) a study on climate change impacts on the competitive interactions...... and flexibly reduces its green biomass under drought conditions. C. vulgaris is less flexible and hardly adjusts photosynthetic capacity or green biomass to drought or warming. Despite these differential responses, competitive interactions were robust. C. vulgaris, in the building phase, outcompetes D...... plant communities. Many heathlands have shifted from dwarf shrub dominance to grass dominance and climatic change might affect the competitive balance between dwarf shrubs and grasses. We looked at heathland vegetation dynamics and heathland plant responses to climatic change at different spatial...

  2. Effects of Climate Change on Regional Crop Production in Eastern Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, S. T.; Mangan, J. M.

    2009-12-01

    Regional climate changes can significantly alter crop yields for agriculturally important areas. Berks County, PA, is an agrarian community whose crop production is typical of southeastern Pennsylvania, with corn as a major crop. Mean annual temperatures in Pennsylvania are predicted to increase by 4 degrees C and precipitation is expected to increase 5% by 2100. We examined changes in 20th Century Berks County crop yields, particularly corn, in response to yearly variations in temperature and precipitation. Crop yields for corn are predicted by models to increase up to a 29 degrees C threshold, beyond which yields will significantly decrease. This study quantifies the effects of recent climate change on Berks County crop production and predicts potential changes for the future. It is important to consider regional climate change effects if we are to fully understand the impacts of global change on food crop production. This study also incorporates anecdotal data from farmers to note their perceptions of crop productivity as related to environmental changes and to determine other factors that may affect farming practices and crop yields.

  3. The effects of climate change and extreme wildfire events on runoff erosion over a mountain watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gould, Gregory K.; Liu, Mingliang; Barber, Michael E.; Cherkauer, Keith A.; Robichaud, Peter R.; Adam, Jennifer C.

    2016-05-01

    Increases in wildfire occurrence and severity under an altered climate can substantially impact terrestrial ecosystems through enhancing runoff erosion. Improved prediction tools that provide high resolution spatial information are necessary for location-specific soil conservation and watershed management. However, quantifying the magnitude of soil erosion and its interactions with climate, hydrological processes, and fire occurrences across a large region (>10,000 km2) is challenging because of the large computational requirements needed to capture the fine-scale complexities of the land surface that govern erosion. We apply the physically-based coupled Variable Capacity Infiltration-Water Erosion Prediction Project (VIC-WEPP) model to study how wildfire occurrences can enhance soil erosion in a future climate over a representative watershed in the northern Rocky Mountains - the Salmon River Basin (SRB) in central Idaho. While the VIC model simulates hydrologic processes at larger scales, the WEPP model simulates erosion at the hillslope scale by sampling representative hillslopes. VIC-WEPP model results indicate that SRB streamflow will have an earlier shift in peak flow by one to two months under future climate scenarios in response to a declining snowpack under warming temperatures. The magnitude of peak flow increases with each higher severity fire scenario; and under the highest fire severity, the peak flow is shifted even earlier, exacerbating the effects of climate change. Similarly, sediment yield also increases with higher fire severities for both historical and future climates. Sediment yield is more sensitive to fire occurrence than to climate change by one to two orders of magnitude, which is not unexpected given that our fire scenarios were applied basin wide as worst case scenarios. In reality, fires only occur over portions of the basin in any given year and subsequent years' vegetation regrowth reduces erosion. However, the effects of climate

  4. Greenland climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Swingedouw, D.; Landais, A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate archives available from deep-sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that during the last decade (2000s...... regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. The magnitude and rate of future changes in Greenland temperature, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, may be faster than any past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Projections indicate that within one century Greenland may......), atmospheric and sea-surface temperatures are reaching levels last encountered millennia ago when northern high latitude summer insolation was higher due to a different orbital configuration. Concurrently, records from lake sediments in southern Greenland document major environmental and climatic conditions...

  5. Topologies of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is quickly becoming a ubiquitous socionatural reality, mediating extremes of sociospatial scale from the bodily to the planetary. Although environmentalism invites us to ‘think globally and act locally', the meaning of these scalar designations remains ambiguous. This paper explores...... the topological presuppositions of social theory in the context of global climate change, asking how carbon emissions ‘translate' into various sociomaterial forms. Staging a meeting between Tim Ingold's phenomenology of globes and spheres and the social topologies of actor-network theory (ANT), the paper advances...... a ‘relational-scalar' analytics of spatial practices, technoscience, and power. As technoscience gradually constructs a networked global climate, this ‘grey box' comes to circulate within fluid social spaces, taking on new shades as it hybridizes knowledges, symbols, and practices. Global climates thus come...

  6. Effects of grazing and climate change on species diversity in sandy grassland, Inner Mongolia, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Toshiya; Okuro

    2009-01-01

    To understand the effects of animal grazing activities and climate change on sandy grassland vegetation in northern China, a field grazing and protected enclosure experiment was conducted from 1992 through 2006 in Horqin Sand Land, Inner Mongolia. The results showed that (1) the grazing was primary responsible for changes of the vegetation richness and diversity in the grazing grassland and that changing climate was the main reason for changes in the species richness and diversity in the grassland protected from grazing; (2) light and moderate grazing can promote restoration of the richness and the diversity in the degraded grassland, and heavy grazing could result in a decrease of the richness and diversity; (3) heavy grazing can result in significant decrease of the perennial diversity, and moderate and light grazing promotes increase of the perennial diversity; the grazing, whether heavy or moderate and light grazing, was beneficial to increase of the annual diversity; (4) heavy grazing was not beneficial to diversity of Graminean and Chenopodiaceae, and moderate and light grazing was favorable the diversity of Compositae and Chenopodiaceae; (5) the warm-humid climate was favorable to increase of the richness and the diversity, and the warm-drought climate could result in decease of the richness and the diversity; (6) increased precipitation was favorable to perennial diversity and the diversity of Graminean, Leguminosae, and Compositae, and decreased precipitation had few effects on the annual diversity and Chenopodiaceae diversity.

  7. Little effect of climate change on body size of herbivorous beetles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baar, Yuval; Friedman, Ariel Leib Leonid; Meiri, Shai; Scharf, Inon

    2016-11-07

    Ongoing climate change affects various aspects of an animal's life, with important effects on distribution range and phenology. The relationship between global warming and body size changes in mammals and birds has been widely studied, with most findings indicating a decline in body size over time. Nevertheless, little data exist on similar size change patterns of invertebrates in general and insects in particular, and it is unclear whether insects should decrease in size or not with climate warming. We measured over 4000 beetle specimens, belonging to 29 beetle species in 8 families, collected in Israel during the last 100 years. The sampled species are all herbivorous. We examined whether beetle body size had changed over the years, while also investigating the relationships between body size and annual temperature, precipitation, net primary productivity (NPP) at the collection site and collection month. None of the environmental variables, including the collection year, was correlated with the size of most of the studied beetle species, while there were strong interactions of all variables with species. Our results, though mostly negative, suggest that the effect of climate change on insect body size is species-specific and by no means a general macro-ecological rule. They also suggest that the intrapopulation variance in body size of insects collected as adults in the field is large enough to conceal intersite environmental effects on body size, such as the effect of temperature and NPP.

  8. Evaporation and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandsma, T.

    1993-01-01

    In this article the influence of climate change on evaporation is discussed. The emphasis is on open water evaporation. Three methods for calculating evaporation are compared considering only changes in temperature and factors directly dependent on temperature. The Penman-method is used to investiga

  9. Effects of vegetation feedback on future climate change over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Miao; Wang, Guiling; Pal, Jeremy S.

    2016-06-01

    This study investigates the impact of climate-vegetation interaction on future climate changes over West Africa using a regional climate model with synchronous coupling between climate and natural vegetation, the RegCM4.3.4-CLM-CN-DV. Based on the lateral boundary conditions supplied by MIROC-ESM and CESM under the greenhouse gas Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, significant increase of vegetation density is projected over the southern part of Sahel, with an increase of leaf area index and a conversion from grass to woody plants around 7-10°N of Sahel. Regardless of whether the model treats vegetation as static or dynamic, it projects an increase of precipitation in eastern Sahel and decrease in the west. The feedback due to projected vegetation change tends to cause a wet signal, enhancing the projected increase or alleviate the decrease of precipitation in JJA in the areas of projected vegetation increase. Its impact is negligible in DJF. Vegetation feedback slightly enhances projected warming in most of West Africa during JJA, but has a significant cooling effect during DJF in regions of strong vegetation changes. Future changes of surface runoff are projected to follow the direction of precipitation changes. While dynamic vegetation feedback enhances the projected increase of soil water content in JJA, it has a drying effect in DJF. The magnitude of projected ET changes is reduced in JJA and increased in DJF due to vegetation dynamics. A high sensitivity of climate projection to dynamic vegetation feedback was found mainly in semiarid areas of West Africa, with little signal in the wet tropics.

  10. Effect of historical land-use and climate change on tree-climate relationships in the upper Midwestern United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goring, Simon J; Williams, John W

    2017-04-01

    Contemporary forest inventory data are widely used to understand environmental controls on tree species distributions and to construct models to project forest responses to climate change, but the stability and representativeness of contemporary tree-climate relationships are poorly understood. We show that tree-climate relationships for 15 tree genera in the upper Midwestern US have significantly altered over the last two centuries due to historical land-use and climate change. Realised niches have shifted towards higher minimum temperatures and higher rainfall. A new attribution method implicates both historical climate change and land-use in these shifts, with the relative importance varying among genera and climate variables. Most climate/land-use interactions are compounding, in which historical land-use reinforces shifts in species-climate relationships toward wetter distributions, or confounding, in which land-use complicates shifts towards warmer distributions. Compounding interactions imply that contemporary-based models of species distributions may underestimate species resilience to climate change.

  11. Direct and indirect effects of climate change on projected future fire regimes in the western United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C

    2016-01-15

    We asked two research questions: (1) What are the relative effects of climate change and climate-driven vegetation shifts on different components of future fire regimes? (2) How does incorporating climate-driven vegetation change into future fire regime projections alter the results compared to projections based only on direct climate effects? We used the western United States (US) as study area to answer these questions. Future (2071-2100) fire regimes were projected using statistical models to predict spatial patterns of occurrence, size and spread for large fires (>400 ha) and a simulation experiment was conducted to compare the direct climatic effects and the indirect effects of climate-driven vegetation change on fire regimes. Results showed that vegetation change amplified climate-driven increases in fire frequency and size and had a larger overall effect on future total burned area in the western US than direct climate effects. Vegetation shifts, which were highly sensitive to precipitation pattern changes, were also a strong determinant of the future spatial pattern of burn rates and had different effects on fire in currently forested and grass/shrub areas. Our results showed that climate-driven vegetation change can exert strong localized effects on fire occurrence and size, which in turn drive regional changes in fire regimes. The effects of vegetation change for projections of the geographic patterns of future fire regimes may be at least as important as the direct effects of climate change, emphasizing that accounting for changing vegetation patterns in models of future climate-fire relationships is necessary to provide accurate projections at continental to global scales.

  12. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change ref...

  13. Effects of climate change on spring wheat phenophase and water requirement in Heihe River basin, China

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Dongmei Han; Denghua Yan; Xinyi Xu; Yu Gao

    2017-02-01

    Climate change has significantly altered the temperature rhythm which is a key factor for the growth and phenophase of the crop. And temperature change further affects crop water requirement and irrigation system. In the north-west of China, one of the most important crop production bases is Heihe River basin where the observed phenological data is scarce. This study thus first adopted accumulated temperature threshold (ATT) method to define the phenological stages of the crop, and analysed the effect of climate change on phenological stages and water requirement of the crop during growing season. The results indicated the ATT was available for the determination of spring wheat phenological stages. The start dates of all phenological stages became earlier and the growing season length (days) was reduced by 7 days under climate change. During the growing season, water requirement without consideration of phenophase change has been increased by 26.1 mm, while that with consideration of phenophase change was featured in the decrease of water requirement by 50 mm. When temperature increased by 1°C on average, the changes were featured in the 2 days early start date of growing season, 2 days decrease of growing season length, and the 1.4 mm increase of water requirement, respectively.

  14. Remote sensing of climate changes effects on urban green biophysical variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoran, Maria A.; Dida, Adrian I.

    2016-10-01

    Urban vegetation land cover change is a direct measure of quantitative increase or decrease in sources of urban pollution and the dimension of extreme climate events and changes that determine environment quality. This study addresses climate changes effects and anthropogenic impacts on urban green biophysical variables based on time series satellite data in synergy with in-situ data and new analytical methods. This paper explored the use of time-series MODIS Terra/Aqua Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI/EVI), Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Leaf Area Index (LAI), land surface albedo data to provide vegetation change detection information for Bucharest test area during 2000- 2015 period. Training and validation are based on a reference dataset collected from Landsat ETM remote sensing data. The mean detection accuracy for investigated period was 89%, with a reasonable balance between change commission errors (19.74%), change omission errors (24.72%), and Kappa coefficient of 0.74. Annual change detection rates across the urban/peri-urban green areas over the study period were estimated at 0.77% per annum in the range of 0.45% (2000) to 0.78% (2015).Vegetation dynamics in urban areas at seasonal and longer timescales reflect large-scale interactions between the terrestrial biosphere and the climate system.

  15. Climate change matters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macpherson, Cheryl Cox

    2014-04-01

    One manifestation of climate change is the increasingly severe extreme weather that causes injury, illness and death through heat stress, air pollution, infectious disease and other means. Leading health organisations around the world are responding to the related water and food shortages and volatility of energy and agriculture prices that threaten health and health economics. Environmental and climate ethics highlight the associated challenges to human rights and distributive justice but rarely address health or encompass bioethical methods or analyses. Public health ethics and its broader umbrella, bioethics, remain relatively silent on climate change. Meanwhile global population growth creates more people who aspire to Western lifestyles and unrestrained socioeconomic growth. Fulfilling these aspirations generates more emissions; worsens climate change; and undermines virtues and values that engender appreciation of, and protections for, natural resources. Greater understanding of how virtues and values are evolving in different contexts, and the associated consequences, might nudge the individual and collective priorities that inform public policy toward embracing stewardship and responsibility for environmental resources necessary to health. Instead of neglecting climate change and related policy, public health ethics and bioethics should explore these issues; bring transparency to the tradeoffs that permit emissions to continue at current rates; and offer deeper understanding about what is at stake and what it means to live a good life in today's world.

  16. Making the climate part of the human world: Why addressing beliefs and biases is necessary part of effective climate change education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, S. D.

    2009-12-01

    Efforts to raise public awareness and understanding of the social, cultural and economic consequences of climate change often encounter skepticism. The primary causes of this skepticism, whether in the form of a mild rejection of proposed policy responses or an outright rejection of the basic scientific findings, is often cited to be the poor framing of issues by the scientific community, the quality of science education or public science literacy, disinformation campaigns by representatives of the coal and gas industry, individual resistance to behavioral change, and the hyperactive nature of the modern information culture. However, the root cause may be that the weather and climate, and by association climate change, is viewed as independent of the sphere of human influence in ancient and modern societies. In this presentation, I will outline how long-standing human beliefs in the separation between the earth and the sky and the modern framing of climate change as an “environmental” issue are limiting efforts to education the public about the causes, effects and possible response to climate change. First, sociological research in the Pacific Islands (Fiji, Kiribati, Tuvalu) finds strong evidence that beliefs in divine control of the weather and climate limit public acceptance of human-induced climate change. Second, media analysis and polling data from North America supports the role of belief and provides further evidence that climate change is viewed as a threat to an “other” labeled “the environment”, rather than a threat to people or society. The consequences of these mental models of the climate can be an outright reject of scientific theory related to climate change, a milder distrust of climate change predictions, a lack of urgency about mitigation, and an underestimate of the effort required to adapt to climate change. In order to be effective, public education about climate change needs to directly address the two, critical beliefs held by

  17. Simulating the effect of climate change on stream temperature in the Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Selbig, William R., E-mail: wrselbig@usgs.gov

    2015-07-15

    The potential for increases in stream temperature across many spatial and temporal scales as a result of climate change can pose a difficult challenge for environmental managers, especially when addressing thermal requirements for sensitive aquatic species. This study evaluates simulated changes to the thermal regime of three northern Wisconsin streams in response to a projected changing climate using a modeling framework and considers implications of thermal stresses to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with a coupled groundwater and surface water flow model to assess forecasts in climate from six global circulation models and three emission scenarios. Model results suggest that annual average stream temperature will steadily increase approximately 1.1 to 3.2 °C (varying by stream) by the year 2100 with differences in magnitude between emission scenarios. Daily mean stream temperature during the months of July and August, a period when cold-water fish communities are most sensitive, showed excursions from optimal temperatures with increased frequency compared to current conditions. Projections of daily mean stream temperature, in some cases, were no longer in the range necessary to sustain a cold water fishery. - Highlights: • A stream temperature model was calibrated for three streams in northern Wisconsin. • The effect of climate change on stream temperature was simulated in each stream. • Annual average stream temperature was projected to rise from 1 to 3 °C by 2100. • Forecasts of stream temperature exceeded optimal ranges for brook trout.

  18. The Effect of Information Provision on Public Consensus about Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deryugina, Tatyana; Shurchkov, Olga

    2016-01-01

    Despite over 20 years of research and scientific consensus on the topic, climate change continues to be a politically polarizing issue. We conducted a survey experiment to test whether providing the public with information on the exact extent of scientific agreement about the occurrence and causes of climate change affects respondents' own beliefs and bridges the divide between conservatives and liberals. First, we show that the public significantly underestimated the extent of the scientific consensus. We then find that those given concrete information about scientists' views were more likely to report believing that climate change was already underway and that it was caused by humans. However, their beliefs about the necessity of making policy decisions and their willingness to donate money to combat climate change were not affected. Information provision affected liberals, moderates, and conservatives similarly, implying that the gap in beliefs between liberals and conservatives is not likely to be bridged by information treatments similar to the one we study. Finally, we conducted a 6-month follow-up with respondents to see if the treatment effect persisted; the results were statistically inconclusive.

  19. Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: Progress report, 2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    United Nations Environment Programme Environmental Effects Assessment Panel

    2017-02-15

    The Parties to the Montreal Protocol are informed by three Panels of experts. One of these is the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP), which deals with two focal issues. The first focus is the effects of UV radiation on human health, animals, plants, biogeochemistry, air quality, and materials. The second focus is on interactions between UV radiation and global climate change and how these may affect humans and the environment. When considering the effects of climate change, it has become clear that processes resulting in changes in stratospheric ozone are more complex than previously believed. As a result of this, human health and environmental issues will be longer-lasting and more regionally variable. Like the other Panels, the EEAP produces a detailed report every four years; the most recent was published as a series of seven papers in 2015 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2015, 14, 1-184). In the years in between, the EEAP produces less detailed and shorter Progress Reports of the relevant scientific findings. The most recent of these was for 2015 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2016, 15, 141-147). The present Progress Report for 2016 assesses some of the highlights and new insights with regard to the interactive nature of the direct and indirect effects of UV radiation, atmospheric processes, and climate change. The more detailed Quadrennial Assessment will be made available in 2018.

  20. Experimental evidence for beneficial effects of projected climate change on hibernating amphibians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Üveges, Bálint; Mahr, Katharina; Szederkényi, Márk; Bókony, Veronika; Hoi, Herbert; Hettyey, Attila

    2016-01-01

    Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates today, experiencing worldwide declines. In recent years considerable effort was invested in exposing the causes of these declines. Climate change has been identified as such a cause; however, the expectable effects of predicted milder, shorter winters on hibernation success of temperate-zone Amphibians have remained controversial, mainly due to a lack of controlled experimental studies. Here we present a laboratory experiment, testing the effects of simulated climate change on hibernating juvenile common toads (Bufo bufo). We simulated hibernation conditions by exposing toadlets to current (1.5 °C) or elevated (4.5 °C) hibernation temperatures in combination with current (91 days) or shortened (61 days) hibernation length. We found that a shorter winter and milder hibernation temperature increased survival of toads during hibernation. Furthermore, the increase in temperature and shortening of the cold period had a synergistic positive effect on body mass change during hibernation. Consequently, while climate change may pose severe challenges for amphibians of the temperate zone during their activity period, the negative effects may be dampened by shorter and milder winters experienced during hibernation. PMID:27229882

  1. Experimental evidence for beneficial effects of projected climate change on hibernating amphibians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Üveges, Bálint; Mahr, Katharina; Szederkényi, Márk; Bókony, Veronika; Hoi, Herbert; Hettyey, Attila

    2016-05-27

    Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates today, experiencing worldwide declines. In recent years considerable effort was invested in exposing the causes of these declines. Climate change has been identified as such a cause; however, the expectable effects of predicted milder, shorter winters on hibernation success of temperate-zone Amphibians have remained controversial, mainly due to a lack of controlled experimental studies. Here we present a laboratory experiment, testing the effects of simulated climate change on hibernating juvenile common toads (Bufo bufo). We simulated hibernation conditions by exposing toadlets to current (1.5 °C) or elevated (4.5 °C) hibernation temperatures in combination with current (91 days) or shortened (61 days) hibernation length. We found that a shorter winter and milder hibernation temperature increased survival of toads during hibernation. Furthermore, the increase in temperature and shortening of the cold period had a synergistic positive effect on body mass change during hibernation. Consequently, while climate change may pose severe challenges for amphibians of the temperate zone during their activity period, the negative effects may be dampened by shorter and milder winters experienced during hibernation.

  2. Climate change effect on the phytosanitary problems: methodology of map producing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Ribeiro do Valle Gonçalves

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The climate change caused by anthropic action can alter the current scenario of phytosanitary problems in Brazilian agriculture. The aim of this study was to evaluate the methodology of producing maps of spatial distribution of phytosanitary problems of plants associated with climate change effects in Brazil. A case study was applied to coffee leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella, considered the most important pest of this culture, comparing its distribution in current and in future climate conditions. As current climate, the average of 1960 to 1990 period was considered. For the future climate conditions, the first method used increments in the temperature fixed to the country and, the second one, adopted increases, varying spatially, both aiming 2080 decade (simulating the period between 2017 to 2100, to A2 scenario. A Geographical Information System (GIS was used to produce the maps. The pest model, proposed by Parra (1985, estimates the probable number of coffee leaf miner cycles. In both methods of producing maps, increases of probable number of coffee leaf miner cycles were observed in the future. Although, using fixed increases in the average temperature caused a substimation of the number of cycles in the future, comparing to adopting increases of temperatures varying spatially. Besides the sazonal differences, regional differents were observed to the number of cycles of the leaf miner coffee.

  3. Effect of Climate-Induced Change in Crop Yields on Emigration: The Case of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppenheimer, M.; Krueger, A. B.; Feng, S.

    2009-05-01

    Researchers have suggested several channels through which future global warming could trigger mass migration across country borders. This paper examines one of them by focusing on the effect of climate- induced crop failures on out-migration. Using data from Mexico, we identify and estimate elasticity of emigration with respect to changes in crop yield, which sheds light on the possible magnitudes of migrant flows for other areas of the world under different climate change scenarios. We choose Mexico as the study object as it is by far the largest migrant-sending country, with an estimated number of emigrants living in the United States to be well over 10 million. In addition, over 20% of Mexico population directly relies on the agricultural sector, which is heavily dependent on climate. For example, the prolonged drought from 1996 to 1998 in northern Mexico resulted in mass crop failures and the death of livestock. Historically, farmers have been using emigration as an adaptation strategy to cope with crop yield reductions. We first examine the relationship between corn yields and climate variables for the period of 1980-2000, using state-level data. We find significant positive effects of annual precipitation and annual average temperature, but a negative effect of summer temperature on corn yields. The effects of both annual and summer temperatures are also nonlinear. Our analyses of other crops such as wheat yield very similar results. Using Mexico Census micro data, we calculate the number of emigrants from each state for the periods of 1990-1995 and 1995-2000. We then regress changes in the number of emigrants on changes in crop yields, instrumented by changes in temperatures and precipitation. Our preferred specification gives an elasticity of -4, which suggests that a 25% reduction in crop yields would double the number of emigrants. The null hypothesis of no effect is rejected at the 5% significance level.

  4. Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: progress report, 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-01

    The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) is one of three Panels that regularly informs the Parties (countries) to the Montreal Protocol on the effects of ozone depletion and the consequences of climate change interactions with respect to human health, animals, plants, biogeochemistry, air quality, and materials. The Panels provide a detailed assessment report every four years. The most recent 2014 Quadrennial Assessment by the EEAP was published as a special issue of seven papers in 2015 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2015, 14, 1-184). The next Quadrennial Assessment will be published in 2018/2019. In the interim, the EEAP generally produces an annual update or progress report of the relevant scientific findings. The present progress report for 2015 assesses some of the highlights and new insights with regard to the interactive nature of the effects of UV radiation, atmospheric processes, and climate change.

  5. Estimating climate change, CO2 and technology development effects on wheat yield in northeast Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bannayan, M; Mansoori, H; Rezaei, E Eyshi

    2014-04-01

    Wheat is the main food for the majority of Iran's population. Precise estimation of wheat yield change in future is essential for any possible revision of management strategies. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate change, CO2 concentration, technology development and their integrated effects on wheat production under future climate change. This study was performed under two scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES): regional economic (A2) and global environmental (B1). Crop production was projected for three future time periods (2020, 2050 and 2080) in comparison with a baseline year (2005) for Khorasan province located in the northeast of Iran. Four study locations in the study area included Mashhad, Birjand, Bojnourd and Sabzevar. The effect of technology development was calculated by fitting a regression equation between the observed wheat yields against historical years considering yield potential increase and yield gap reduction as technology development. Yield relative increase per unit change of CO2 concentration (1 ppm(-1)) was considered 0.05 % and was used to implement the effect of elevated CO2. The HadCM3 general circulation model along with the CSM-CERES-Wheat crop model were used to project climate change effects on wheat crop yield. Our results illustrate that, among all the factors considered, technology development provided the highest impact on wheat yield change. Highest wheat yield increase across all locations and time periods was obtained under the A2 scenario. Among study locations, Mashhad showed the highest change in wheat yield. Yield change compared to baseline ranged from -28 % to 56 % when the integration of all factors was considered across all locations. It seems that achieving higher yield of wheat in future may be expected in northeast Iran assuming stable improvements in production technology.

  6. Estimating climate change, CO2 and technology development effects on wheat yield in northeast Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bannayan, M.; Mansoori, H.; Rezaei, E. Eyshi

    2014-04-01

    Wheat is the main food for the majority of Iran's population. Precise estimation of wheat yield change in future is essential for any possible revision of management strategies. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate change, CO2 concentration, technology development and their integrated effects on wheat production under future climate change. This study was performed under two scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES): regional economic (A2) and global environmental (B1). Crop production was projected for three future time periods (2020, 2050 and 2080) in comparison with a baseline year (2005) for Khorasan province located in the northeast of Iran. Four study locations in the study area included Mashhad, Birjand, Bojnourd and Sabzevar. The effect of technology development was calculated by fitting a regression equation between the observed wheat yields against historical years considering yield potential increase and yield gap reduction as technology development. Yield relative increase per unit change of CO2 concentration (1 ppm-1) was considered 0.05 % and was used to implement the effect of elevated CO2. The HadCM3 general circulation model along with the CSM-CERES-Wheat crop model were used to project climate change effects on wheat crop yield. Our results illustrate that, among all the factors considered, technology development provided the highest impact on wheat yield change. Highest wheat yield increase across all locations and time periods was obtained under the A2 scenario. Among study locations, Mashhad showed the highest change in wheat yield. Yield change compared to baseline ranged from -28 % to 56 % when the integration of all factors was considered across all locations. It seems that achieving higher yield of wheat in future may be expected in northeast Iran assuming stable improvements in production technology.

  7. The Effect of Climate Change on Water Balance Components in the Senegal River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandholt, I.; Ridler, M.; Stisen, S.; MacKellar, N.; Christensen, J. H.; Nielsen, C.; Rasmussen, K.

    2009-12-01

    West Africa has undergone some of the most dramatic recorded changes in climate during the last decades, having affected people directly due to large impact on food production and water resources. The livelihood of future generations in this very vulnerable region of the World is dependent on access to water, influenced directly by changes in climate and land cover. The goal of this study is thus to investigate the relative effects of future changes in climate and land cover in one of the large river basins in the region, the transnational Senegal Basin, from a water resource perspective. Based on predictions from an ensemble of up to nine regional climate models over West Africa and associated land cover change scenarios, the effect on components of the water balance in the Senegal Basin is analysed. We apply a distributed hydrological model based on the MIKE SHE code to simulate changes in stream flow and in the partitioning of evapotranspiration for the years 2030-2050. The model is calibrated on a control period spanning from 1951 to 1990. The results from RCMs and their associated uncertainties derived in the ENSEMBLES project are used as input to the hydrological model. Climate change effects on land cover are introduced via a simple relation between remotely sensed vegetation cover and precipitation. The simulations enable us to assess the relative importance of changes in climate and land cover constrained by model results and realistic land cover changes. Stream flow and evapotranspiration in four sub-basins each with distinct characteristics with regards to land cover and precipitation are subject to more detailed analyses. We acknowledge the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com), funded by the European Commission's 6th Framework Programme and the AMMA Project (http://www.amma-international.org). Based on a French initiative, AMMA was built by an international scientific group and is currently funded by a large number of agencies

  8. Climate Change and Future World

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    fresh water. Movements of migrants from northern Africa and the Middle-East are already a security problem for Europe . This phenomenon is likely to be...Climate Change Science Program , Climate Literacy – The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences, 3. (http://library.globalchange.gov/climate...06/2013. 21 U.S. Climate Change Science Program , Climate Literacy – The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences, 3. (http

  9. Potential Effects of Climate Changes on Aquatic Systems: Laurentian Great Lakes and Precambrian Shield Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnuson, J. J.; Webster, K. E.; Assel, R. A.; Bowser, C. J.; Dillon, P. J.; Eaton, J. G.; Evans, H. E.; Fee, E. J.; Hall, R. I.; Mortsch, L. R.; Schindler, D. W.; Quinn, F. H.

    1997-06-01

    increase but many complex reactions of the phytoplankton community to altered temperatures, thermocline depths, light penetrations and nutrient inputs would be expected. Zooplankton biomass would increase, but, again, many complex interactions are expected.Generally, the thermal habitat for warm-, cool- and even cold-water fishes would increase in size in deep stratified lakes, but would decrease in shallow unstratified lakes and in streams. Less dissolved oxygen below the thermocline of lakes would further degrade stratified lakes for cold water fishes. Growth and production would increase for fishes that are now in thermal environments cooler than their optimum but decrease for those that are at or above their optimum, provided they cannot move to a deeper or headwater thermal refuge. The zoogeographical boundary for fish species could move north by 500-600 km; invasions of warmer water fishes and extirpations of colder water fishes should increase. Aquatic ecosystems across the region do not necessarily exhibit coherent responses to climate changes and variability, even if they are in close proximity. Lakes, wetlands and streams respond differently, as do lakes of different depth or productivity. Differences in hydrology and the position in the hydrological flow system, in terrestrial vegetation and land use, in base climates and in the aquatic biota can all cause different responses. Climate change effects interact strongly with effects of other human-caused stresses such as eutrophication, acid precipitation, toxic chemicals and the spread of exotic organisms. Aquatic ecological systems in the region are sensitive to climate change and variation. Assessments of these potential effects are in an early stage and contain many uncertainties in the models and properties of aquatic ecological systems and of the climate system.

  10. Climate change effects at your doorstep: Geographic visualization to support Nordic homeowners in adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neset, Tina; Glaas, Erik; Ballantyne, Anne Gammelgaard;

    2016-01-01

    The complexity of climate information, particularly as related to climate scenarios, impacts, and action alternatives, poses significant challenges for science communication. This study presents a geographic visualization approach involving lay audiences to address these challenges. VisAdapt™ is ......The complexity of climate information, particularly as related to climate scenarios, impacts, and action alternatives, poses significant challenges for science communication. This study presents a geographic visualization approach involving lay audiences to address these challenges. Vis......, for their locations and to find information on specific adaptation measures for their house types and locations. The process of testing the tool included a focus group study with homeowners in Norway, Denmark, and Sweden to assess key challenges in geographic visualization, such as the level of interactivity...

  11. The impact of climate change on the U.S. power sector: Price and quantity effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veliz, Karina

    In U.S. homes, 22 percent and 6 percent of the consumption of electricity is devoted to satisfy cooling and heating demands, respectively. A warming climate alters these consumption patterns by increasing the demand for cooling and reducing the demand for heating. This dissertation uses econometric techniques to examine the effect of climate change on the U.S. power industry through the study of the responsiveness of electricity demand to changes in temperature, and the impact of a climate-induced demand on electricity price and expenditures. In the second chapter a fixed-effects model and a cointegration model at the state level are used to investigate the determinants of residential, commercial and industrial electricity consumption for the 48 contiguous states. The results indicate substantial geographical heterogeneity in the response of demand to cooling and heating degree days, with the Midwest showing the greatest sensitivity. Residential consumers are impacted the most; on average, they experience a 13--18 percent increase in expenditures. In the third chapter the standard method of modeling electricity consumption is extended by the analysis of a wide range of set points above and below 65°F, and by including wet bulb temperatures. The statistical results for Massachusetts validate the use of 65F for the residential sector, but demonstrate that a set point of 55°F and wet bulb temperature best characterizes the commercial sector. Using the models generated with these set points, climate change is projected to raise residential and commercial demand by 2.6 percent and 4 percent, respectively. In the fourth chapter, previous analyses on climate-induced expenditures are improved by accounting for the dual impact that climate change has on the electric power sector: an increase in both demand and price. A projected 2.6°C rise in temperature by 2070 in Massachusetts increases electricity prices by 11 to 18 percent. This increase in price, together with the

  12. Predicting climate change effects on surface soil organic carbon of Louisiana, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Biao; Xu, Yi Jun

    2014-10-01

    This study aimed to assess the degree of potential temperature and precipitation change as predicted by the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3) climate model for Louisiana, and to investigate the effects of potential climate change on surface soil organic carbon (SOC) across Louisiana using the Rothamsted Carbon Model (RothC) and GIS techniques at the watershed scale. Climate data sets at a grid cell of 0.5° × 0.5° for the entire state of Louisiana were collected from the HadCM3 model output for three climate change scenarios: B2, A2, and A1F1, that represent low, higher, and even higher greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. Geo-referenced datasets including USDA-NRCS Soil Geographic Database (STATSGO), USGS Land Cover Dataset (NLCD), and the Louisiana watershed boundary data were gathered for SOC calculation at the watershed scale. A soil carbon turnover model, RothC, was used to simulate monthly changes in SOC from 2001 to 2100 under the projected temperature and precipitation changes. The simulated SOC changes in 253 watersheds from three time periods, 2001-2010, 2041-2050, and 2091-2100, were tested for the influence of the land covers and emissions scenarios using SAS PROC GLIMMIX and PDMIX800 macro to separate Tukey-Kramer (p change from 30.7 t/ha in 2001 to 25.4, 26.6, and 27.0 t/ha in 2100, respectively. Annual SOC changes will be significantly different among the land cover classes including evergreen forest, mixed forest, deciduous forest, small grains, row crops, and pasture/hay (p < 0.0001), emissions scenarios (p < 0.0001), and their interactions (p < 0.0001).

  13. Energy and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-15

    Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

  14. Effects on asthma and respiratory allergy of Climate change and air pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Amato, Gennaro; Vitale, Carolina; De Martino, Annamaria; Viegi, Giovanni; Lanza, Maurizia; Molino, Antonio; Sanduzzi, Alessandro; Vatrella, Alessandro; Annesi-Maesano, Isabella; D'Amato, Maria

    2015-01-01

    The major changes to our world are those involving the atmosphere and the climate, including global warming induced by anthropogenic factors, with impact on the biosphere and human environment. Studies on the effects of climate changes on respiratory allergy are still lacking and current knowledge is provided by epidemiological and experimental studies on the relationship between allergic respiratory diseases, asthma and environmental factors, like meteorological variables, airborne allergens and air pollution. Epidemiologic studies have demonstrated that urbanization, high levels of vehicle emissions and westernized lifestyle are correlated with an increased frequency of respiratory allergy, mainly in people who live in urban areas in comparison with people living in rural areas. However, it is not easy to evaluate the impact of climate changes and air pollution on the prevalence of asthma in general and on the timing of asthma exacerbations, although the global rise in asthma prevalence and severity could be also considered an effect of air pollution and climate changes. Since airborne allergens and air pollutants are frequently increased contemporaneously in the atmosphere, enhanced IgE-mediated response to aeroallergens and enhanced airway inflammation could account for the increasing frequency of respiratory allergy and asthma in atopic subjects in the last five decades. Pollen allergy is frequently used to study the interrelationship between air pollution and respiratory allergic diseases such as rhinitis and bronchial asthma. Climatic factors (temperature, wind speed, humidity, thunderstorms, etc) can affect both components (biological and chemical) of this interaction. Scientific societies should be involved in advocacy activities, such as those realized by the Global Alliance against chronic Respiratory Diseases (GARD).

  15. Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, Matthew; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael; Lovett, Andrew; Posen, Paulette

    2016-10-01

    We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale.

  16. Interactive effects of anthropogenic nitrogen enrichment and climate change on terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change and Nr from anthropogenic activities are causing some of the most rapid changes in biodiversity in recent times. Climate change is causing warming trends that result in poleward and elevational range shiftsof flora and fauna, and changes in phenology, particularly ...

  17. Climate change, global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effects of temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crabbe, M James C

    2008-10-01

    Climate change and global warming have severe consequences for the survival of scleractinian (reef-building) corals and their associated ecosystems. This review summarizes recent literature on the influence of temperature on coral growth, coral bleaching, and modelling the effects of high temperature on corals. Satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) and coral bleaching information available on the internet is an important tool in monitoring and modelling coral responses to temperature. Within the narrow temperature range for coral growth, corals can respond to rate of temperature change as well as to temperature per se. We need to continue to develop models of how non-steady-state processes such as global warming and climate change will affect coral reefs.

  18. Solar ultraviolet radiation and ozone depletion-driven climate change: effects on terrestrial ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bornman, J F; Barnes, P W; Robinson, S A; Ballaré, C L; Flint, S D; Caldwell, M M

    2015-01-01

    In this assessment we summarise advances in our knowledge of how UV-B radiation (280-315 nm), together with other climate change factors, influence terrestrial organisms and ecosystems. We identify key uncertainties and knowledge gaps that limit our ability to fully evaluate the interactive effects of ozone depletion and climate change on these systems. We also evaluate the biological consequences of the way in which stratospheric ozone depletion has contributed to climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. Since the last assessment, several new findings or insights have emerged or been strengthened. These include: (1) the increasing recognition that UV-B radiation has specific regulatory roles in plant growth and development that in turn can have beneficial consequences for plant productivity via effects on plant hardiness, enhanced plant resistance to herbivores and pathogens, and improved quality of agricultural products with subsequent implications for food security; (2) UV-B radiation together with UV-A (315-400 nm) and visible (400-700 nm) radiation are significant drivers of decomposition of plant litter in globally important arid and semi-arid ecosystems, such as grasslands and deserts. This occurs through the process of photodegradation, which has implications for nutrient cycling and carbon storage, although considerable uncertainty exists in quantifying its regional and global biogeochemical significance; (3) UV radiation can contribute to climate change via its stimulation of volatile organic compounds from plants, plant litter and soils, although the magnitude, rates and spatial patterns of these emissions remain highly uncertain at present. UV-induced release of carbon from plant litter and soils may also contribute to global warming; and (4) depletion of ozone in the Southern Hemisphere modifies climate directly via effects on seasonal weather patterns (precipitation and wind) and these in turn have been linked to changes in the growth of plants

  19. Environmental effects on germination phenology of co-occurring eucalypts: implications for regeneration under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rawal, Deepa S.; Kasel, Sabine; Keatley, Marie R.; Nitschke, Craig R.

    2015-09-01

    Germination is considered one of the important phenological stages that are influenced by environmental factors, with timing and abundance determining plant establishment and recruitment. This study investigates the influence of temperature, soil moisture and light on the germination phenology of six Eucalyptus species from two co-occurring groups of three species representing warm-dry and cool-moist sclerophyll forests. Data from germination experiments were used to calibrate the germination module of the mechanistic model TACA-GEM, to evaluate germination phenology under a range of climate change scenarios. With the exception of E. polyanthemos, the optimal niche for all species was characterised by cool-moist stratification, low light, cool temperatures and high soil moisture. Model results indicated that of the warm-dry species, Eucalyptus microcarpa exhibited greater germination and establishment under projected changes of warmer drier conditions than its co-occurring species Eucalyptus polyanthemos and Eucalyptus tricarpa which suggests that E. microcarpa could maintain its current distribution under a warmer and drier climate in southeastern Australia. Among the cool-moist species, Eucalyptus radiata was the only species that established under projected climate change of the 2080s but at such a low probability that its persistence compared to Eucalyptus obliqua and Eucalyptus sieberi cannot be posited. For all cool-moist species, germination did not benefit from the phenological shifts they displayed. This study successfully demonstrated environmental effects on germination phenology and how a shift in climate can influence the timing and success of recruitment.

  20. Interaction effects of climate and land use/land cover change on soil organic carbon sequestration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Xiong; Grunwald, Sabine; Myers, D Brenton; Ross, C Wade; Harris, Willie G; Comerford, Nicolas B

    2014-09-15

    Historically, Florida soils stored the largest amount of soil organic carbon (SOC) among the conterminous U.S. states (2.26 Pg). This region experienced rapid land use/land cover (LULC) shifts and climate change in the past decades. The effects of these changes on SOC sequestration are unknown. The objectives of this study were to 1) investigate the change in SOC stocks in Florida to determine if soils have acted as a net sink or net source for carbon (C) over the past four decades and 2) identify the concomitant effects of LULC, LULC change, and climate on the SOC change. A total of 1080 sites were sampled in the topsoil (0-20 cm) between 2008 and 2009 representing the current SOC stocks, 194 of which were selected to collocate with historical sites (n = 1251) from the Florida Soil Characterization Database (1965-1996) for direct comparison. Results show that SOC stocks significantly differed among LULC classes--sugarcane and wetland contained the highest SOC, followed by improved pasture, urban, mesic upland forest, rangeland, and pineland while crop, citrus and xeric upland forest remained the lowest. The surface 20 cm soils acted as a net sink for C with the median SOC significantly increasing from 2.69 to 3.40 kg m(-2) over the past decades. The SOC sequestration rate was LULC dependent and controlled by climate factors interacting with LULC. Higher temperature tended to accelerate SOC accumulation, while higher precipitation reduced the SOC sequestration rate. Land use/land cover change observed over the past four decades also favored the C sequestration in soils due to the increase in the C-rich wetland area by ~140% and decrease in the C-poor agricultural area by ~20%. Soils are likely to provide a substantial soil C sink considering the climate and LULC projections for this region.

  1. Bayesian analysis of climate change effects on observed and projected airborne levels of birch pollen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yong; Isukapalli, Sastry S.; Bielory, Leonard; Georgopoulos, Panos G.

    2013-04-01

    A Bayesian framework is presented for modeling effects of climate change on pollen indices such as annual birch pollen count, maximum daily birch pollen count, start date of birch pollen season and the date of maximum daily birch pollen count. Annual mean CO2 concentration, mean spring temperature and the corresponding pollen index of prior year were found to be statistically significant accounting for effects of climate change on four pollen indices. Results suggest that annual productions and peak values from 2020 to 2100 under different scenarios will be 1.3-8.0 and 1.1-7.3 times higher respectively than the mean values for 2000, and start and peak dates will occur around two to four weeks earlier. These results have been partly confirmed by the available historical data. As a demonstration, the emission profiles in future years were generated by incorporating the predicted pollen indices into an existing emission model.

  2. Climate Change Ignorance: An Unacceptable Legacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boon, Helen J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change effects will be most acutely felt by future generations. Recent prior research has shown that school students' knowledge of climate change science is very limited in rural Australia. The purpose of this study was to assess the capacity of preservice teachers and parents to transmit climate change information and understanding to…

  3. Modelling the Effects of Land-Use Changes on Climate: a Case Study on Yamula DAM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köylü, Ü.; Geymen, A.

    2016-10-01

    Dams block flow of rivers and cause artificial water reservoirs which affect the climate and the land use characteristics of the river basin. In this research, the effect of the huge water body obtained by Yamula Dam in Kızılırmak Basin is analysed over surrounding spatial's land use and climate change. Mann Kendal non-parametrical statistical test, Theil&Sen Slope method, Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) methods are integrated for spatial and temporal analysis of the research area. For this research humidity, temperature, wind speed, precipitation observations which are collected in 16 weather stations nearby Kızılırmak Basin are analyzed. After that these statistical information is combined by GIS data over years. An application is developed for GIS analysis in Python Programming Language and integrated with ArcGIS software. Statistical analysis calculated in the R Project for Statistical Computing and integrated with developed application. According to the statistical analysis of extracted time series of meteorological parameters, statistical significant spatiotemporal trends are observed for climate change and land use characteristics. In this study, we indicated the effect of big dams in local climate on semi-arid Yamula Dam.

  4. Corporate Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    The American Chamber of Commerce, the People's Republic of China (AmCham-China) and the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai recently released "American Corporate Experience in a Changing China: Insights From AmCham Business Climate Surveys, 1999-2005." Excerpts of the report follow:

  5. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carmin, J.; Tierney, K.; Chu, E.; Hunter, L.M.; Roberts, J.T.; Shi, L.; Dunlap, R.E.; Brulle, R.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the financ

  6. Tackling Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Representatives from nearly 200 countries and regions have gathered in Durban,South Africa,for the 17th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 7th session of the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol.The meeting is the follow-up conference to tacklin

  7. Learning Progressions & Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Joyce M.; de los Santos, Elizabeth X.; Anderson, Charles W.

    2015-01-01

    Our society is currently having serious debates about sources of energy and global climate change. But do students (and the public) have the requisite knowledge to engage these issues as informed citizenry? The learning-progression research summarized here indicates that only 10% of high school students typically have a level of understanding…

  8. DTU Climate Change Technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    During 2008 and 2009, DTU held a workshop series focusing on assessment of and adaption to climate changes as well as on mitigation of green house gasses. In the workshops, a total of 1500 scientists, government officials and business leaders have outlined scenarios for technology development...

  9. Forest Policies Addressing Climate Change in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    As a developing country with a large population and a fragile ecological environment, China is particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Beginning with the Rio Conference of 1992 China has played a progressively enhanced role in combating climate change. A series of policies and measures to address climate change have been taken in the overall context of national sustainable development strategy, making positive contributions to the mitigation and adaptation to climate change, among ...

  10. Preparing for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holdgate, M

    1989-01-01

    There is a distinct probability that humankind is changing the climate and at the same time raising the sea level of the world. The most plausible projections we have now suggest a rise in mean world temperature of between 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2030--just 40 years hence. This is a bigger change in a smaller period than we know of in the experience of the earth's ecosystems and human societies. It implies that by 2030 the earth will be warmer than at any time in the past 120,000 years. In the same period, we are likely to see a rise of 15-30 centimeters in sea level, partly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and partly to the expansion of the warmer seas. This may not seem much--but it comes on top of the 12-centimeter rise in the past century and we should recall that over 1/2 the world's population lives in zones on or near coasts. A quarter meter rise in sea level could have drastic consequences for countries like the Maldives or the Netherlands, where much of the land lies below the 2-meter contour. The cause of climate change is known as the 'greenhouse effect'. Greenhouse glass has the property that it is transparent to radiation coming in from the sun, but holds back radiation to space from the warmed surfaces inside the greenhouse. Certain gases affect the atmosphere in the same way. There are 5 'greenhouse gases' and we have been roofing ourselves with them all: carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25% above preindustrial levels and are likely to double within a century, due to tropical forest clearance and especially to the burning of increasing quantities of coal and other fossil fuels; methane concentrations are now twice their preindustrial levels as a result of releases from agriculture; nitrous oxide has increased due to land clearance for agriculture, use of fertilizers, and fossil fuel combustion; ozone levels near the earth's surface have increased due mainly to pollution from motor vehicles; and

  11. Indirect Effects of Climate Change on Heat Waves in the Great Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Branstator, G.; Teng, H.

    2015-12-01

    When we analyze a large ensemble RCP8.5 climate change experiment we find that heat waves have become more common and intense in the Great Plains during 2070-2100 compared to 1980-2010. Much of this can be attributed to the simple direct additive effect of a 5.8°C increase in Jun-Aug surface mean temperatures in that region. But there is also a non-additive effect in that daily temperature departures from the new mean during heat waves are about 0.6°C warmer in the future epoch. Here we consider two often-proposed mechanisms by which this change in the variability of surface temperature could result from indirect influences of changes in the mean state. One mechanism involves changes in the variability of upper tropospheric planetary waves, which we are especially interested in because we have found planetary wave structures that both affect the likelihood of heat waves and have unusually high predictability on subseasonal time scales. Our analysis does show that the amplitude of planetary wave variability has been modified in the future modeled climate. And calculations with a mechanistic model show this is indeed a consequence of the change in the mean circulation. But further analysis indicates this modification of planetary wave fluctuations is probably not responsible for the increase in Great Plains heat waves. By contrast we find changes in the magnitude of surface fluxes during heat wave events could be responsible for their strengthening and these can be attributed to the decrease in soil moisture that occurs during the future period. Hence it is changes in zonally asymmetric mean land surface quantities rather than changes in upper tropospheric fluctuations brought on by changes to the mean circulation that are of primary importance in producing the enhanced variability of surface temperature in the future climate.

  12. Cost-effectiveness of climate change policies for the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Rudd, Anne Elizabeth Sally

    2012-01-01

    This research project applies a hybrid energy-economy model to compare the cost-effectiveness of different climate change mitigation policies for the United States. Five policies are compared: (1) a technology regulation phasing out coal and natural gas generation, (2) Clean Electricity Standard, (3) Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standard, (4) Vehicles Emissions Standard, (5) economy-wide GHG tax. The cost of these policies is estimated using three different methodologies. The first methodol...

  13. The Effect of Hurricanes on Annual Precipitation in Maryland and the Connection to Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jackie; Liu, Zhong

    2015-01-01

    Precipitation is a vital aspect of our lives droughts, floods and other related disasters that involve precipitation can cause costly damage in the economic system and general society. Purpose of this project is to determine what, if any effect do hurricanes have on annual precipitation in Maryland Research will be conducted on Marylands terrain, climatology, annual precipitation, and precipitation contributed from hurricanes Possible connections to climate change

  14. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmgren, K.; Karlen, W. [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography

    1998-12-01

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  15. Climate Change and Corporate Environmental Responsibility

    OpenAIRE

    Dewan Mahboob HOSSAIN; Chowdhury, M. Jahangir Alam

    2012-01-01

    Climate change, as an international environmental issue, is getting a lot of attention. The negative effects of climate change have become one of the most talked about issues among Governments, scientists, environmentalists and others. It is said that business activities are affecting the climate negatively. In order to minimize the negative effects of climate change, the activities of the businesses should be controlled and encouraged to perform in a socially responsible manner. The article ...

  16. Adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn

    2011-01-01

    framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed...... down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US2.3 to US2.3toUS7.......4 billion during 2003–2050. Our analysis identifies improved road design and agricultural sector investments as key ‘no-regret’ adaptation measures, alongside intensified efforts to develop a more flexible and resilient society. Our findings also support the need for cooperative river basin management...

  17. Effects of Climate Changes on Firn Properties and Gas Transport in Firn

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, C.; Lundin, J.; Vo, H.; Yoon, M.; Waddington, E. D.

    2014-12-01

    Knowledge of the physics of firn-density evolution and gas transport in firn has several important applications in glaciology, including (1) correcting for firn air content when estimating ice-sheet mass-balance changes from satellite altimetry and (2) determining the ice-age/gas-age difference for paleoclimate interpretations of ice-core records. The firn-physics group at the University of Washington is developing modular and open-source community models describing evolution of firn density, temperature, diffusivity, and other structural properties affecting gas transport. A novel aspect is that the gas model can be coupled to the density model, allowing bubble-close-off depth, lock-in depth, depth-integrated porosity, and effective diffusivity to evolve in the gas-transport model. This feature allows us to investigate changes in firn physical properties and the evolving impacts of those changes on gas diffusion, thermal and gravitational fractionation, and the mixing ratio of gasses in bubbles trapped in firn during climate change events. Here, we use ice-core derived and synthetic climate data to show the scope of these impacts for gradual and abrupt climate changes.

  18. Effects of climate change on phenological trends and seed cotton yields in oasis of arid regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jian; Ji, Feng

    2015-07-01

    Understanding the effects of climatic change on phenological phases of cotton ( Gossypium hirsutum L.) in oasis of arid regions may help optimize management schemes to increase productivity. This study assessed the impacts of climatic changes on the phenological phases and productivity of spring cotton. The results showed that climatic warming led the dates of sowing seed, seeding emergence, three-leaf, five-leaf, budding, anthesis, full bloom, cleft boll, boll-opening, boll-opening filling, and stop-growing become earlier by 24.42, 26.19, 24.75, 23.28, 22.62, 15.75, 14.58, 5.37, 2.85, 8.04, and 2.16 days during the period of 1981-2010, respectively. The growth period lengths from sowing seed to seeding emergence and from boll-opening to boll-opening filling were shortened by 1.76 and 5.19 days, respectively. The other growth period lengths were prolonged by 2-9.71 days. The whole growth period length was prolonged by 22.26 days. The stop-growing date was delayed by 2.49-3.46 days for every 1 °C rise in minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures; however, other development dates emerged earlier by 2.17-4.76 days. Rising temperatures during the stage from seeding emergence to three-leaf reduced seed cotton yields. However, rising temperatures increased seed cotton yields in the two stages from anthesis to cleft boll and from boll-opening filling to the stop-growing. Increasing accumulated temperatures (AT) had different impacts on different development stages. During the vegetative phase, rising AT led to reduced seed cotton yields, but rising AT during reproductive stage increased seed cotton yields. In conclusion, climatic warming helpfully obtained more seed cotton yields in oasis of arid regions in northwest China. Changing the sowing date is another way to enhance yields for climate change in the future.

  19. Microbial responses to multi-factor climate change: Effects on soil enzymes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Megan Steinweg

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The activities of extracellular enzymes, the proximate agents of decomposition in soils, are known to depend strongly on temperature, but less is known about how they respond to changes in precipitation patterns, and the interaction of these two components of climate change. Both enzyme production and turnover can be affected by changes in temperature and soil moisture, thus it is difficult to predict how enzyme pool size may respond to altered climate. Soils from the Boston-Area Climate Experiment, which is located in an old field (on abandoned farmland, were used to examine how climate variables affect enzyme activities and microbial biomass carbon (MBC in different seasons and in soils exposed to a combination of three levels of precipitation treatments (ambient, 150% of ambient during growing season, and 50% of ambient year-round and four levels of warming treatments (unwarmed to ~4˚C above ambient over the course of a year. Warming, precipitation and season had very little effect on potential enzyme activity. Most models assume that enzyme dynamics follow microbial biomass, because enzyme production should be directly controlled by the size and activity of microbial biomass. We observed differences among seasons and treatments in mass-specific potential enzyme activity, suggesting that this assumption is invalid. In June 2009, mass-specific potential enzyme activity, using chloroform fumigation-extraction MBC, increased with temperature, peaking under medium warming and then declining under the highest warming. This finding suggests that either enzyme production increased with temperature or turnover rates decreased. Increased maintenance costs associated with warming may have resulted in increased mass-specific enzyme activities due to increased nutrient demand. Our research suggests that allocation of resources to enzyme production could be affected by climate-induced changes in microbial efficiency and maintenance costs.

  20. Modeling the effects of climate change and acidification on global coral reefs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, C. A.; Donner, S. D.; Eakin, C.; Dunne, J. P.

    2010-12-01

    Climate warming threatens to increase the frequency of mass coral bleaching events. Meanwhile, ocean acidification may increase susceptibility to these events and slow the recovery of corals following bleaching. Using future sea surface warming scenarios from global coupled climate models, previous studies have estimated that corals will experience biannual bleaching events by mid-century unless they are able to acclimatize or adapt at a rate of ~0.2-1.0°C per decade. Empirical studies also show that certain coral ecotypes may be more resistant to bleaching than others (e.g. massive vs. branching). Likewise, more variable thermal history may play a significant role in increasing resistance to bleaching. Better quantifying the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on coral reefs under different future scenarios is critical to making proactive decisions about both mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation to climate change. Proposed here is a model that uses two of the ESM2 GFDL models and combines several previous attempts at modeling climate change effects. This model incorporates thermal history and adaptability into a modified Degree Heating Week bleaching threshold. The model is designed to examine the effects of rising SSTs alone as well as in combination with ocean acidification and other factors to predict future global coral reef bleaching frequency and response by coral ecotype. The ESM2 GFDL models are validated for use in coral reef areas by comparing model results against historical SST satellite data for the years 1985-2006 at 4km and 50km spatial resolutions to assess the models’ reproducibility of mean annual temperature, range, and variability. The modified bleaching threshold is tested against observational bleaching records in well-documented areas (e.g., Great Barrier Reef).

  1. Distributional effects of climate change taxation: the case of the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Kuishuang; Hubacek, Klaus; Guan, Dabo; Contestabile, Monica; Minx, Jan; Barrett, John

    2010-05-15

    Current economic instruments aimed at climate change mitigation focus mainly on CO(2) emissions, but efficient climate mitigation needs to focus on other greenhouse gases as well as CO(2). This study investigates the distributional effects of climate change taxes on households belonging to different income and lifestyle groups; and it compares the effects of a CO(2) tax with a multiple GHG tax in the UK in terms of cost efficiency and distributional effects. Results show that a multi GHG tax is more efficient than a CO(2) tax due to lower marginal abatement costs, and that both taxes are regressive, with lower income households paying a relatively larger share of their income for the taxes than higher income households. A shift from a CO(2) tax to a GHG tax will reduce and shift the tax burden between consumption categories such as from energy-intensive products to food products. Consumers have different abilities to respond to the tax and change their behavior due to their own socio-economic attributes as well as the physical environment such as the age of the housing stock, location, and the availability of infrastructure. The housing-related carbon emissions are the largest component of the CO(2) tax payments for low income groups and arguments could be made for compensation of income losses and reduction of fuel poverty through further government intervention.

  2. The effect of climate change, population distribution, and climate mitigation on building energy use in the U.S. and China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Yuyu; Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.

    2013-08-01

    A changing climate will affect the energy system in a number of ways, one of which is through changes in demands for heating and cooling in buildings. Understanding the potential effect of climate on heating and cooling demands must take into account not only the manner in which the building sector might evolve over time - including, for example, movements from rural to urban environments in developing countries - but also important uncertainty about the nature of climate change itself and the growth and movements of populations over time. In this study, we explored the uncertainty in climate change impacts on heating and cooling by constructing estimates of heating and cooling degree days for both a reference (no-policy) scenario and a climate mitigation scenario built from 0.5 degree latitude by 0.5 degree longitude resolution output from three different Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three gridded scenarios of population distribution. The implications that changing climate and population distribution might have for building energy consumption in the U.S. and China were then explored by using the heating and cooling degree days results as inputs to a detailed, building energy model, nested in the long-term global integrated assessment framework, Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Across the climate models and population distribution scenarios, the results indicate that unabated climate change would cause total final energy consumption to decrease modestly in both U.S. and China buildings by the end of the century, as decreased heating consumption is more than balanced by increased cooling using primarily electricity. However, the results also indicate that when indirect emissions from the power sector are also taken into account, climate change may have negligible effect on building sector CO2 emissions in the two countries. The variation in results due to variation of population distribution is noticeably smaller than variation due to the use of different

  3. Response in the trophic state of stratified lakes to changes in hydrology and water level: potential effects of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Dale M.; Rose, William J.

    2011-01-01

    To determine how climate-induced changes in hydrology and water level may affect the trophic state (productivity) of stratified lakes, two relatively pristine dimictic temperate lakes in Wisconsin, USA, were examined. Both are closed-basin lakes that experience changes in water level and degradation in water quality during periods of high water. One, a seepage lake with no inlets or outlets, has a small drainage basin and hydrology dominated by precipitation and groundwater exchange causing small changes in water and phosphorus (P) loading, which resulted in small changes in water level, P concentrations, and productivity. The other, a terminal lake with inlets but no outlets, has a large drainage basin and hydrology dominated by runoff causing large changes in water and P loading, which resulted in large changes in water level, P concentrations, and productivity. Eutrophication models accurately predicted the effects of changes in hydrology, P loading, and water level on their trophic state. If climate changes, larger changes in hydrology and water levels than previously observed could occur. If this causes increased water and P loading, stratified (dimictic and monomictic) lakes are expected to experience higher water levels and become more eutrophic, especially those with large developed drainage basins.

  4. Climate and Land Use Change Effects on Ecological Resources in Three Watersheds: A Synthesis Report (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Climate and Land-Use Change Effects on Ecological Resources in Three Watersheds: A Synthesis Report. This report provides a summary of climate change impacts to selected watersheds and recommendations for how to improv...

  5. Assessing climate change effects on long-term forest development: adjusting growth, phenology, and seed production in a gap model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meer, van der P.J.; Jorritsma, I.T.M.; Kramer, K.

    2002-01-01

    The sensitivity of forest development to climate change is assessed using a gap model. Process descriptions in the gap model of growth, phenology, and seed production were adjusted for climate change effects using a detailed process-based growth modeland a regression analysis. Simulation runs over 4

  6. The Effectiveness of the Geospatial Curriculum Approach on Urban Middle-Level Students' Climate Change Understandings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodzin, Alec M.; Fu, Qiong

    2014-01-01

    Climate change science is a challenging topic for student learning. This quantitative study examined the effectiveness of a geospatial curriculum approach to promote climate change science understandings in an urban school district with eighth-grade students and investigated whether teacher- and student-level factors accounted for students'…

  7. "What sceptics believe": The effects of information and deliberation on climate change scepticism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobson, Kersty; Niemeyer, Simon

    2013-05-01

    Scepticism about climate change now appears a pervasive social phenomenon. Research to date has examined the different forms that scepticism can take, from outright denial to general uncertainty. Less is known about what climate sceptics value and believe beyond their climate change doubt, as well as how "entrenched" such beliefs are. In response, this paper discusses research into public reactions to projected climate change in the Australian Capital Region. Using Q Methodology and qualitative data, it outlines five discourses of scepticism and explores the impact regional-scale climate scenarios and a deliberative forum had on these discourses. Results show that both forms of intervention stimulate "discourse migration" amongst research participants. However, migrations are rarely sustained, and sceptical positions are infrequently dispelled outright, suggesting the relationship between climate scepticism, broader beliefs, and the methods used to inform and debate about climate change, are pivotal to comprehending and addressing this issue.

  8. Climate change triggers effects of fungal pathogens and insect herbivores on litter decomposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butenschoen, Olaf; Scheu, Stefan

    2014-10-01

    Increasing infestation by insect herbivores and pathogenic fungi in response to climate change will inevitably impact the amount and quality of leaf litter inputs into the soil. However, little is known on the interactive effect of infestation severity and climate change on litter decomposition, and no such study has been published for deciduous forests in Central Europe. We assessed changes in initial chemical quality of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and maple litter (Acer platanoides L.) in response to infestation by the gall midge Mikiola fagi Hart. and the pathogenic fungus Sawadaea tulasnei Fuckel, respectively, and investigated interactive effects of infestation severity, changes in temperature and soil moisture on carbon mineralization in a short-term laboratory study. We found that infestation by the gall midge M. fagi and the pathogenic fungus S. tulasnei significantly changed the chemical quality of beech and maple litter. Changes in element concentrations were generally positive and more pronounced, and if negative less pronounced for maple than beech litter most likely due to high quality fungal tissue remaining on litter after abscission. More importantly, alterations in litter chemical quality did not translate to distinct patterns of carbon mineralization at ambient conditions, but even low amounts of infested litter accelerated carbon mineralization at moderately increased soil moisture and in particular at higher temperature. Our results indicate that insect herbivores and fungal pathogens can markedly alter initial litter chemical quality, but that afterlife effects on carbon mineralization depend on soil moisture and temperature, suggesting that increased infestation severity under projected climate change potentially increases soil carbon release in deciduous forests in Central Europe.

  9. Determining the effect of climate change and development on water resources management in the Sudan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satti, S.; Zaitchik, B.; Siddiqui, S.

    2013-12-01

    The effects of development and the uncertainty of climate change in East Africa provide a myriad of challenges for water managers along the Blue Nile. The construction of the Grand renaissance dam (GRD), as well as the unknown trajectory of precipitation trends in the Ethiopian highlands may greatly affect the countries that rely on the Nile. Sudan's huge irrigation potential and dams that feed multiple current irrigation schemes as well as its location within the basin means that Sudan's water management decisions may reverberate and have social, economic and political implications within the east African sub-region. Here, we apply a suite of state-of-the-art hydrology and climate analysis tools to evaluate the sensitivity of Sudan's optimal hydropower and irrigation development pathways to hydrologic variability and climate change. Present day hydrologic conditions are derived from a gridded implementation of the Noah Land Surface Model (LSM) that includes representation of typical irrigation practices in the region. Noah is implemented using the NASA Land Information System (LIS), and draws forcing data from a combination of reanalysis and satellite meteorological products. Additional satellite inputs are used to provide a constraint on Noah evapotranspiration estimates and to acquire parameters such as crop water requirements that are crucial in determining yield and agricultural production. Future climate conditions are projected using statistical downscaling techniques trained to historical meteorological records and projected forward using inputs from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulation database. These climatic and hydrologic inputs are combined with agronomic and economic inputs to drive an optimization model developed within the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). By using output and results from climate, hydrologic and optimization models this research aims to show how these models can be integrated to aid decision

  10. Social impacts of climate change in Mexico: A municipality level analysis of the effects of recent and future climate change on human development and inequality

    OpenAIRE

    Andersen, Lykke E.; Verner, Dorte

    2010-01-01

    This paper uses municipality level data to estimate the general relationships between climate, income and child mortality in Mexico. Climate was found to play only a very minor role in explaining the large differences in income levels and child mortality rates observed in Mexico. This implies that Mexico is considerably less vulnerable to expected future climate change than other countries in Latin America.

  11. Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Drought Risk for the Nile River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strzepek, K. M.; Boehlert, B. B.; Vogel, R. M.

    2012-12-01

    Approximately 90 percent of the Nile River runoff is generated within two regions—the Ethiopian highlands and the Lake Victoria and Equatorial Lakes—that have historically contrasting precipitation regimes. As a result of uncorrelated interannual rainfall variability, meteorological droughts in one region are typically offset by wetter periods in the other, thus having a moderating effect on downstream Nile river flow to Sudan and Egypt. Under climate change, the drivers of these contrasting rainfall regimes (including the annual migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) may be fundamentally altered such that droughts become correlated between these regions, leading to unprecedented low flows in the downstream Nile. The water management challenges that would result are likely to be exacerbated if climate change increases drought occurrence and intensity across the basin. In this research, we first assess the effect of climate change on drought frequency and intensity across eight Nile subbasins by applying the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) to the full suite of 22 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change General Circulation Models for three IPCC-SRES emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2 from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)). We then use these outputs to evaluate how climate change affects the correlation of drought occurrence and intensity between the Ethiopian highlands and the Lake Victoria and Equatorial Lakes regions. In the first inquiry, we find that the frequency of drought over the next century based on precipitation alone (SPI) is projected to increase in the northern Nile basin, and decrease in the southern regions. Drought frequencies based on both precipitation and temperature (PDSI) are projected to increase across most of the Nile basin, however, with almost universally experienced increases in drought risk by the late 21st century. For both measures, the Ethiopia

  12. Potential effects of climate change on a marine invasion: The importance of current context

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Isabelle M. C(O)T(E); Stephanie J. GREEN

    2012-01-01

    Species invasions threaten marine biodiversity globally.There is a concern that climate change is exacerbating this problem.Here,we examined some of the potential effects of warming water temperatures on the invasion of Western Atlantic habitats by a marine predator,the lndo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans and P.miles).We focussed on two temperature-dependent aspects of lionfish life-history and behaviour:pelagic larval duration,because of its link to dispersal potential,and prey consumption rate,because it is an important determinant of the impacts of lionfish on native prey.Using models derived from fundamental metabolic theory,we predict that the length of time spent by lionfish in the plankton in early life should decrease with warming temperatures,with a concomitant reduction in potential dispersal distance.Although the uncertainty around change in dispersal distances is large,predicted reductions are,on average,more than an order of magnitude smaller than the current rate of range expansion of lionfish in the Caribbean.Nevertheless,because shorter pelagic larval duration has the potential to increase local retention of larvae,local lionfish management will become increasingly important under projected climate change.Increasing temperature is also expected to worsen the current imbalance between rates of prey consumption by lionfish and biomass production by their prey,leading to a heightened decline in native reef fish biomass.However,the magnitude of climate-induced decline is predicted to be minor compared to the effect of current rates of lionfish population increases (and hence overall prey consumption rates) on invaded reefs.Placing the predicted effects of climate change in the current context thus reveals that,at least for the lionfish invasion,the threat is clear and present,rather than future [Current Zoology 58 (1):1-8,2012].

  13. Potential effects of climate change on a marine invasion: The importance of current context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabelle M. CÔTÉ, Stephanie J. GREEN

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Species invasions threaten marine biodiversity globally. There is a concern that climate change is exacerbating this problem. Here, we examined some of the potential effects of warming water temperatures on the invasion of Western Atlantic habitats by a marine predator, the Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans and P. miles. We focussed on two temperature-dependent aspects of lionfish life-history and behaviour: pelagic larval duration, because of its link to dispersal potential, and prey consumption rate, because it is an important determinant of the impacts of lionfish on native prey. Using models derived from fundamental metabolic theory, we predict that the length of time spent by lionfish in the plankton in early life should decrease with warming temperatures, with a concomitant reduction in potential dispersal distance. Although the uncertainty around change in dispersal distances is large, predicted reductions are, on average, more than an order of magnitude smaller than the current rate of range expansion of lionfish in the Caribbean. Nevertheless, because shorter pelagic larval duration has the potential to increase local retention of larvae, local lionfish management will become increasingly important under projected climate change. Increasing temperature is also expected to worsen the current imbalance between rates of prey consumption by lionfish and biomass production by their prey, leading to a heightened decline in native reef fish biomass. However, the magnitude of climate-induced decline is predicted to be minor compared to the effect of current rates of lionfish population increases (and hence overall prey consumption rates on invaded reefs. Placing the predicted effects of climate change in the current context thus reveals that, at least for the lionfish invasion, the threat is clear and present, rather than future [Current Zoology 58 (1: 1–8, 2012].

  14. Genetic programming approach on evaporation losses and its effect on climate change for Vaipar Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K.S.Kasiviswanathan

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is the major problem that every human being is facing over the world. The rise in fossil fuel usage increases the emission of `greenhouse' gases, particularly carbon dioxide continuously into the earth's atmosphere. This causes a rise in the amount of heat from the sun withheld in the earth's atmosphere that would normally radiated back into space. This increase in heat has led to the greenhouse effect, resulting in climate change and rise in temperature along with other climatological parameters directly affects evaporation losses. Accurate modelling and forecasting of these evaporation losses are important for preventing further effects due to climate change. Evaporation is purely non-linear and varying both spatially and temporally. This needs suitable data driven approach to model and should have the ability to take care of all these non-linear behaviour of the system. As such, though there are many empirical and analytical models suggested in the literature for the estimation of evaporation losses, such models should be used with care and caution. Further, difficulties arise in obtaining all the climatological data used in a given analytical or empirical model. Genetic programming (GP is one such technique applied where the non-linearity exist. GP has the flexible mathematical structure which is capable of identifying the non-linear relationship between input and output data sets. Thus, it is easy to construct 'local' models for estimating evaporation losses. The performance of GP model is compared with Thornthwaite method, and results from the study indicate that the GP model performed better than the Thornthwaite method. Forecasting of meteorological parameters such as temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity has been performed using Markovian chain series analysis subsequently it is used to estimate the future evaporation losses using developed GP model. Finally the effect of possible future climate change on

  15. Modelling the effectiveness of grass buffer strips in managing muddy floods under a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullan, Donal; Vandaele, Karel; Boardman, John; Meneely, John; Crossley, Laura H.

    2016-10-01

    Muddy floods occur when rainfall generates runoff on agricultural land, detaching and transporting sediment into the surrounding natural and built environment. In the Belgian Loess Belt, muddy floods occur regularly and lead to considerable economic costs associated with damage to property and infrastructure. Mitigation measures designed to manage the problem have been tested in a pilot area within Flanders and were found to be cost-effective within three years. This study assesses whether these mitigation measures will remain effective under a changing climate. To test this, the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was used to examine muddy flooding diagnostics (precipitation, runoff, soil loss and sediment yield) for a case study hillslope in Flanders where grass buffer strips are currently used as a mitigation measure. The model was run for present day conditions and then under 33 future site-specific climate scenarios. These future scenarios were generated from three earth system models driven by four representative concentration pathways and downscaled using quantile mapping and the weather generator CLIGEN. Results reveal that under the majority of future scenarios, muddy flooding diagnostics are projected to increase, mostly as a consequence of large scale precipitation events rather than mean changes. The magnitude of muddy flood events for a given return period is also generally projected to increase. These findings indicate that present day mitigation measures may have a reduced capacity to manage muddy flooding given the changes imposed by a warming climate with an enhanced hydrological cycle. Revisions to the design of existing mitigation measures within existing policy frameworks are considered the most effective way to account for the impacts of climate change in future mitigation planning.

  16. Policies, Actions and Effects for China s Forestry Response to Global Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Climate change is a great concern of various countries, the public and science community, and forest plays an important role in mitigating climate change. The paper made a comprehensive analysis regarding the policy selections of China to promote forestry response to the global climate change, and elaborated the concrete actions and achievements in this regard. Policy selections include: 1) Reinforce tree planting and afforestation, increase the forested area and enhance the capacity of carbon sequestration...

  17. Plant trait-based models identify direct and indirect effects of climate change on bundles of grassland ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamarque, Pénélope; Lavorel, Sandra; Mouchet, Maud; Quétier, Fabien

    2014-09-23

    Land use and climate change are primary causes of changes in the supply of ecosystem services (ESs). Although the consequences of climate change on ecosystem properties and associated services are well documented, the cascading impacts of climate change on ESs through changes in land use are largely overlooked. We present a trait-based framework based on an empirical model to elucidate how climate change affects tradeoffs among ESs. Using alternative scenarios for mountain grasslands, we predicted how direct effects of climate change on ecosystems and indirect effects through farmers' adaptations are likely to affect ES bundles through changes in plant functional properties. ES supply was overall more sensitive to climate than to induced management change, and ES bundles remained stable across scenarios. These responses largely reflected the restricted extent of management change in this constrained system, which was incorporated when scaling up plot level climate and management effects on ecosystem properties to the entire landscape. The trait-based approach revealed how the combination of common driving traits and common responses to changed fertility determined interactions and tradeoffs among ESs.

  18. [Air quality and climate change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loft, Steffen

    2009-10-26

    Air quality, health and climate change are closely connected. Ozone depends on temperature and the greenhouse gas methane from cattle and biomass. Pollen presence depends on temperature and CO2. The effect of climate change on particulate air pollution is complex, but the likely net effect is greater health risks. Reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions by reduced livestock production and use of combustion for energy production, transport and heating will also improve air quality. Energy savings in buildings and use of CO2 neutral fuels should not deteriorate indoor and outdoor air quality.

  19. The effects of weather and climate change on cycling in Northern Norway

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mathisen, T.A.; Annema, J.A.; Kroesen, M.

    2015-01-01

    Weather is identified as one of many factors that influence the demand for cycling. Weather patterns will change due to expected climate change. The aim of this article is to study the extent to which climate change influences the cycling frequency. The analysis in this article is conducted using an

  20. Principals' Response to Change in Schools and Its Effect on School Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busch, Steve; Johnson, Shirley; Robles-Piña, Rebecca; Slate, John R.

    2009-01-01

    In this study, the researchers examined principal behaviors related with change in school climate. That is, the manner in which principals managed change within their schools and the impact of these change behaviors on the school climate was investigated. Through use of the Leadership Profile (Johnson, 2003) and the Organizational Health Inventory…

  1. Interacting effects of climate change and habitat fragmentation on drought-sensitive butterflies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, Tom H.; Marshall, Harry H.; Morecroft, Mike D.; Brereton, Tom; Prudhomme, Christel; Huntingford, Chris

    2015-10-01

    Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of some climatic extremes. These may have drastic impacts on biodiversity, particularly if meteorological thresholds are crossed, leading to population collapses. Should this occur repeatedly, populations may be unable to recover, resulting in local extinctions. Comprehensive time series data on butterflies in Great Britain provide a rare opportunity to quantify population responses to both past severe drought and the interaction with habitat area and fragmentation. Here, we combine this knowledge with future projections from multiple climate models, for different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and for simultaneous modelled responses to different landscape characteristics. Under RCP8.5, which is associated with `business as usual’ emissions, widespread drought-sensitive butterfly population extinctions could occur as early as 2050. However, by managing landscapes and particularly reducing habitat fragmentation, the probability of persistence until mid-century improves from around zero to between 6 and 42% (95% confidence interval). Achieving persistence with a greater than 50% chance and right through to 2100 is possible only under both low climate change (RCP2.6) and semi-natural habitat restoration. Our data show that, for these drought-sensitive butterflies, persistence is achieved more effectively by restoring semi-natural landscapes to reduce fragmentation, rather than simply focusing on increasing habitat area, but this will only be successful in combination with substantial emission reductions.

  2. Effects of Climate Change on Food Expenditures of Rural Households in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Karbasi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the effects of climate change on food expenditure in rural household of Iran. Food expenditure is investigated as a function of average income of rural households, retail food price index and food expenditure for rural households, agricultural sown area and climate change. Here, the Stata11 software is used and data are from 26 provinces of the country for 10 years. Precipitation, temperature and relative humidity are considered as indicators for climate variables. The results indicated a positive and significant effect of average income of rural households, retail food prices, food expenditure of rural households with a lag and precipitation on the food expenditure of rural households. Agricultural sown area and relative humidity had no effect on the food expenditure of rural households and temperature had a significant and negative effect on the food expenditure of rural households. In the end, due to the impact that each of these variables explicitly have on food expenditure of rural households and implicitly on food security of rural households, suggestions for maintaining and improving food security of rural households is presented.

  3. Trends in the mortality effects of hot spells in central Europe: adaptation to climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kysely, J.; Plavcova, E.

    2013-12-01

    Europe has recently been affected by several long-lasting and severe heat waves, particularly in July-August 2003 (western Europe), June-July 2006 (central Europe), July 2007 (southeastern Europe) and July 2010 (western Russia). The heat waves influenced many sectors of human activities, with enormous socio-economic and environmental impacts. With estimated death tolls exceeding 50,000, the 2003 and 2010 heat waves were the worst natural disasters in Europe over the last 50 years, yielding an example of how seriously may also high-income societies be affected by climate change. The present study examines temporal changes in mortality associated with spells of large positive temperature anomalies (hot spells) in the population of the Czech Republic (around 10 million inhabitants, central Europe). Declining trends in the mortality impacts since 1986 are found, in spite of rising temperature trends. The findings remain unchanged if possible confounding effects of within-season acclimatization to heat and the mortality displacement effect are taken into account, and they are similar for all-cause mortality and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases. Recent positive socio-economic development, following the collapse of communism in central and eastern Europe in 1989, and better public awareness of heat-related risks are likely the primary causes of the declining vulnerability in the examined population (Kyselý and Plavcová, 2012). The results are also consistent with those reported for other developed regions of the world (the US, western Europe, Australia) and suggest that climate change may have relatively little influence on heat-related deaths, since changes in other factors that affect vulnerability of the population are dominant instead of temperature trends. It is essential to better understand the observed non-stationarity of the temperature-mortality relationship and the role of adaptation and its limits, both physiological and technological, and to address

  4. A Cloud Greenhouse Effect on Mars: Significant Climate Change in the Recent Past

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberle, Robert M.; Kahre, Melinda A.; Schaeffer, James R.; Montmessin, Frank; Phillips, R J.

    2012-01-01

    The large variations in Mars orbit parameters are known to be significant drivers of climate change on the Red planet. The recent discovery of buried CO2 ice at the South Pole adds another dimension to climate change studies. In this paper we present results from the Ames GCM that show within the past million years it is possible that clouds from a greatly intensified Martian hydrological cycle may have produced a greenhouse effect strong enough to raise global mean surface temperatures by several tens of degrees Kelvin. It is made possible by the ability of the Martian atmosphere to transport water to high altitudes where cold clouds form, reduce the outgoing longwave radiation, and drive up surface temperatures to maintain global energy balance.

  5. DOE SBIR Phase II Final Technical Report - Assessing Climate Change Effects on Wind Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whiteman, Cameron [Vertum Partners LP, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Capps, Scott [Vertum Partners LP, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    2014-11-05

    Specialized Vertum Partners software tools were prototyped, tested and commercialized to allow wind energy stakeholders to assess the uncertainties of climate change on wind power production and distribution. This project resulted in three commercially proven products and a marketing tool. The first was a Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) based resource evaluation system. The second was a web-based service providing global 10m wind data from multiple sources to wind industry subscription customers. The third product addressed the needs of our utility clients looking at climate change effects on electricity distribution. For this we collaborated on the Santa Ana Wildfire Threat Index (SAWTi), which was released publicly last quarter. Finally to promote these products and educate potential users we released “Gust or Bust”, a graphic-novel styled marketing publication.

  6. A demographic approach to study effects of climate change in desert plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Siewert, Wolfgang; Casper, Brenda B; Tielbörger, Katja

    2012-11-19

    Desert species respond strongly to infrequent, intense pulses of precipitation. Consequently, indigenous flora has developed a rich repertoire of life-history strategies to deal with fluctuations in resource availability. Examinations of how future climate change will affect the biota often forecast negative impacts, but these-usually correlative-approaches overlook precipitation variation because they are based on averages. Here, we provide an overview of how variable precipitation affects perennial and annual desert plants, and then implement an innovative, mechanistic approach to examine the effects of precipitation on populations of two desert plant species. This approach couples robust climatic projections, including variable precipitation, with stochastic, stage-structured models constructed from long-term demographic datasets of the short-lived Cryptantha flava in the Colorado Plateau Desert (USA) and the annual Carrichtera annua in the Negev Desert (Israel). Our results highlight these populations' potential to buffer future stochastic precipitation. Population growth rates in both species increased under future conditions: wetter, longer growing seasons for Cryptantha and drier years for Carrichtera. We determined that such changes are primarily due to survival and size changes for Cryptantha and the role of seed bank for Carrichtera. Our work suggests that desert plants, and thus the resources they provide, might be more resilient to climate change than previously thought.

  7. Dislocated interests and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Steven J.; Diffenbaugh, Noah

    2016-06-01

    The predicted effects of climate change on surface temperatures are now emergent and quantifiable. The recent letter by Hansen and Sato (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 034009) adds to a growing number of studies showing that warming over the past four decades has shifted the distribution of temperatures higher almost everywhere, with the largest relative effects on summer temperatures in developing regions such as Africa, South America, southeast Asia, and the Middle East (e.g., Diffenbaugh and Scherer 2011 Clim. Change 107 615-24 Anderson 2011 Clim. Change 108 581; Mahlstein et al 2012 Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L21711). Hansen and Sato emphasize that although these regions are warming disproportionately, their role in causing climate change—measured by cumulative historical CO2 emissions produced—is small compared to the US and Europe, where the relative change in temperatures has been less. This spatial and temporal mismatch of climate change impacts and the burning of fossil fuels is a critical dislocation of interests that, as the authors note, has ‘substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.’ Here, we place Hansen and Sato’s ‘national responsibilities’ into a broader conceptual framework of problematically dislocated interests, and briefly discuss the related challenges for global climate mitigation efforts.

  8. Effects of climate-induced changes in isoprene emissions after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Telford

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available In the 1990s the rates of increase of greenhouse gas concentrations, most notably of methane, were observed to change, for reasons that have yet to be fully determined. This period included the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo and an El Niño warm event, both of which affect biogeochemical processes, by changes in temperature, precipitation and radiation. We examine the impact of these changes in climate on global isoprene emissions and the effect these climate dependent emissions have on the hydroxy radical, OH, the dominant sink for methane. We model a reduction of isoprene emissions in the early 1990s, with a maximum decrease of 40 Tg(C/yr in late 1992 and early 1993, a change of 9%. This reduction is caused by the cooler, drier conditions following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. Isoprene emissions are reduced both directly, by changes in temperature and a soil moisture dependent suppression factor, and indirectly, through reductions in the total biomass. The reduction in isoprene emissions causes increases of tropospheric OH which lead to an increased sink for methane of up to 5 Tg(CH4/year, comparable to estimated source changes over the time period studied. There remain many uncertainties in the emission and oxidation of isoprene which may affect the exact size of this effect, but its magnitude is large enough that it should remain important.

  9. Potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on a shallow natural lake fish assemblage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breeggemann, Jason J.; Kaemingk, Mark A.; DeBates, T.J.; Paukert, Craig P.; Krause, J.; Letvin, Alexander P.; Stevens, Tanner M.; Willis, David W.; Chipps, Steven R.

    2015-01-01

    Much uncertainty exists around how fish communities in shallow lakes will respond to climate change. In this study, we modelled the effects of increased water temperatures on consumption and growth rates of two piscivores (northern pike [Esox lucius] and largemouth bass [Micropterus salmoides]) and examined relative effects of consumption by these predators on two prey species (bluegill [Lepomis macrochirus] and yellow perch [Perca flavescens]). Bioenergetics models were used to simulate the effects of climate change on growth and food consumption using predicted 2040 and 2060 temperatures in a shallow Nebraska Sandhill lake, USA. The patterns and magnitude of daily and cumulative consumption during the growing season (April–October) were generally similar between the two predators. However, growth of northern pike was always reduced (−3 to −45% change) compared to largemouth bass that experienced subtle changes (4 to −6% change) in weight by the end of the growing season. Assuming similar population size structure and numbers of predators in 2040–2060, future consumption of bluegill and yellow perch by northern pike and largemouth bass will likely increase (range: 3–24%), necessitating greater prey biomass to meet future energy demands. The timing of increased predator consumption will likely shift towards spring and fall (compared to summer), when prey species may not be available in the quantities required. Our findings suggest that increased water temperatures may affect species at the edge of their native range (i.e. northern pike) and a potential mismatch between predator and prey could exist.

  10. Forecasting the Effects of 21st Century Climate Change on Eighteen Ski Resorts in the Western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pidwirny, M. J.; Soroke, M.

    2013-12-01

    This research uses climate data generated from ClimateWNA to determine the effect future global warming will have on eighteen ski resorts in the western United States. The ski resorts selected for this study range in latitude from 48.5° N (Whitefish Mountain Resort, Montana) to 33.4° N (Ski Apache Resort, New Mexico). ClimateWNA is a high quality spatially interpolated climate dataset program that contains historical datasets for the period 1901-2011 and future climate datasets generated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 climate models. From the ClimateWNA program, three emission scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1) were applied to a subset of selected climate models to produce 20 climate forecasts for each of 2050 and 2080. Three derived climate variables were selected to determine the influence of climate change on the viability of the ski resorts: snowfall, number of frost days, and degree days ski resorts depending on the model and emission scenario used when compared to the 1961-1990 normal period. 2050 and 2080 projections generally suggest declines in ski resort viability because of reductions in snowfall, warmer temperatures, and shorter seasons even under best-case scenarios. However, some of the best-case model predictions do suggest an increase in snowfall in a few of the resorts studied. Worst-case scenarios almost always indicate significant declines in all of the climate variables.

  11. Climate change, biodiversity, ticks and tick-borne diseases: The butterfly effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filipe Dantas-Torres

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available We have killed wild animals for obtaining food and decimated forests for many reasons. Nowadays, we are burning fossil fuels as never before and even exploring petroleum in deep waters. The impact of these activities on our planet is now visible to the naked eye and the debate on climate change is warming up in scientific meetings and becoming a priority on the agenda of both scientists and policy decision makers. On the occasion of the Impact of Environmental Changes on Infectious Diseases (IECID meeting, held in the 2015 in Sitges, Spain, I was invited to give a keynote talk on climate change, biodiversity, ticks and tick-borne diseases. The aim of the present article is to logically extend my rationale presented on the occasion of the IECID meeting. This article is not intended to be an exhaustive review, but an essay on climate change, biodiversity, ticks and tick-borne diseases. It may be anticipated that warmer winters and extended autumn and spring seasons will continue to drive the expansion of the distribution of some tick species (e.g., Ixodes ricinus to northern latitudes and to higher altitudes. Nonetheless, further studies are advocated to improve our understanding of the complex interactions between landscape, climate, host communities (biodiversity, tick demography, pathogen diversity, human demography, human behaviour, economics, and politics, also considering all ecological processes (e.g., trophic cascades and other possible interacting effects (e.g., mutual effects of increased greenhouse gas emissions and increased deforestation rates. The multitude of variables and interacting factors involved, and their complexity and dynamism, make tick-borne transmission systems beyond (current human comprehension. That is, perhaps, the main reason for our inability to precisely predict new epidemics of vector-borne diseases in general.

  12. Quantifying the effects of climate change on water resources in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Christensen, Jens H.;

    2007-01-01

    This study investigates how future climate change is likely to affect the water resources in Denmark. The main focus is on groundwater resources because the water supply in Denmark is entirely based on groundwater. A physically-based, distributed hydrological model is used to simulate the changes...... climatological output data from the regional climate model HIRHAM (Danish Meteorological Institute), which dynamically downscales the climate change signals from the coarser resolution global climate model HadAM3H (Hadley Centre), with the concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols based on the IPCC SRES A2...... emissions scenario. The climate output used is daily precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration at a 12x12 km resolution for two time slices, one for a  control period representing recent climate (1961-1990) and one for the scenario climate for the future(2071-2100)....

  13. Interactive effects of reactive nitrogen and climate change on US water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, J.; Bernhardt, E. S.; Finlay, J. C.; Chan, F.; Nolan, B. T.; Howarth, B.; Hall, E.; Boyer, E. W.

    2011-12-01

    Water resources and aquatic ecosystems are increasingly strained by withdrawals for agriculture and drinking water supply, nitrogen and other pollutant inputs, and climate change. We describe current and projected effects of the interactions of reactive nitrogen (N) and climate change on water resources of the United States. As perturbations to the N cycle intensify in a warmer less predictable climate, interactions will negatively affect the services we expect of our water resources. There are also feedbacks to the climate system itself through the production of greenhouse gases. We conclude: 1. Nitrogen concentrations will increase in the nation's waters from increased N loading and higher N mineralization rates. N export from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems exhibits a high sensitivity to climate variations. 2. Consequences range from eutrophication and acidification, which reduce natural biodiversity and harm economically valuable fisheries, to adverse impacts on human health. 3. Extreme flood events have the potential to transport N rapidly long distances downstream from its source. 4. A recent national assessment found 67% of streams derived more than 37% of their total nitrate load from base flow often derived from groundwater. Long residence times for groundwater nitrate below agricultural fields may cause benefits from proper N management practices to take decades to be realized under current and future climates. 5. Streams, wetlands, rivers, lakes, estuaries and continental shelves are hotspots for denitrification. Maintenance of N removal capacity thus a critical component of eutrophication management under changing climate and land use conditions. 6. The amount of N inputs from fertilizer and manure use, human population, and deposition is tightly coupled with hydrology to influence the rates and proportion of N emitted to the atmosphere as N2O. About 20% of global N2O emissions come from groundwater, lakes, rivers, and estuaries; stream and wetland

  14. Effects of climate change on the production and consumption of electricity in Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forsius, J.; Kuivalainen, P.; Maekinen, P. [Imatran Voima Oy, Helsinki (Finland). Environmental Protection Div.

    1996-12-31

    In the next few decades, the probable strengthening of the greenhouse effect may bring about considerable changes in energy production and consumption, which depend on climate. It is presumed that some of the changes will occur even if the rise in greenhouse gas concentration will be reduced. Because the investments in energy production have a long-term influence, decision-makers should have an idea about the impact of the strengthening of the greenhouse effect on energy production and consumption in Finland. According to the results of this study, the effects of climate change on the total consumption and production of electricity will be limited. The structure of both electricity consumption and production will remain rather similar, the most important changes applying to hydro power. The consumption of heating electricity will decrease substantially. Because the non- climate-dependent sectors of electricity consumption (process industry and services) account for more than a half of the total consumption, the effect on the total consumption is, however, rather small. The total annual hydropower production in Finland was estimated to be 2 % more both in the year 2025 and 2100 than at present. The annual mean discharges do not change very much compared to the present. The greatest difference in comparison with the present is the noticeable smoothing of the annual discharge variation. Particularly in Northern Finland the smoothing is considerable in average circumstances. In the scenario for the year 2100, in particular, the spring flood peak is, on average, significantly reduced, the flood peak takes place earlier and the average winter discharges increase

  15. Hydrologic effects of potential changes in climate, water use, and land cover in the Upper Scioto River Basin, Ohio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebner, Andrew D.; Koltun, G.F.; Ostheimer, Chad J.

    2015-01-01

    This report presents the results of a study to provide information on the hydrologic effects of potential 21st-century changes in climate, water use, and land cover in the Upper Scioto River Basin, Ohio (from Circleville, Ohio, to the headwaters). A precipitation-runoff model, calibrated on the basis of historical climate and streamflow data, was used to simulate the effects of climate change on streamflows and reservoir water levels at several locations in the basin. Two levels of simulations were done. The first level of simulation (level 1) accounted only for anticipated 21st-century changes in climate and operations of three City of Columbus upground reservoirs located in northwest Delaware County, Ohio. The second level of simulation (level 2) accounted for development-driven changes in land cover and water use in addition to changes in climate and reservoir operations.

  16. Contrasted effects of climate change on temperate large lakes oxygen-depletion (Lakes Geneva, Bourget, Annecy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenny, Jean-Philippe; Arnaud, Fabien; Dorioz, Jean-Marcel; Alric, Benjamin; Sabatier, Pierre; Perga, Marie-Elodie

    2013-04-01

    Among manifestations of the entry in a new geological era -The Anthropocene- marked by the fingerprinting of human activities in global ecology, the development of persistent zones of oxygen-depletion particularly threatens aquatic ecosystems. This results in a loss of fisheries, a loss of biodiversity, an alteration of food-webs and even, in extreme cases, mass mortality of fauna1. Whereas hypoxia -defined as dissolved oxygen ≤2 mg/l- has long been considered as a consequence of the sole eutrophication, recent studies showed it also depends on climate change. Despite basic processes of oxygen-depletion are well-known, till now no study evaluated the contrasted effects of climate changes on a long-term perspective. Here we show that climate change paced fluctuation of hypoxia in 3 large lakes (Lake Geneva, Lake Bourget and Lake Annecy) that were previously disturbed by unprecedented nutrient input. Our approach couples century-scale paleo-reconstruction of 1) hypoxia, 2) flood regime and 3) nutrient level, thanks to an exceptional 80 sediment core data collection taken in three large lakes (Geneva, Bourget, Annecy), and monitoring data. Our results show that volume of hypoxia can be annually estimated according to varve records through large lakes. Quantitative additive models were then used to identify and hierarchy environmental forcings on hypoxia. Flood regime and air temperatures hence appeared as significant forcing factors of hypolimnetic hypoxia. Noticeably, their effects are highly contrasted between lakes, depending on specific lake morphology and local hydrological regime. We hence show that greater is the lake specific river discharge the more is the control of winter mixing and the lower is the control of thermal stratification on oxygen depletion. Our study confirms that the perturbation of food web due to nutrient input led to a higher vulnerability of aquatic ecosystems to climate change. We further show specific hydrological regime play a crucial

  17. Modelling climate change effects on benthos: Distributional shifts in the North Sea from 2001 to 2099

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinert, Michael; Mathis, Moritz; Kröncke, Ingrid; Neumann, Hermann; Pohlmann, Thomas; Reiss, Henning

    2016-06-01

    In the marine realm, climate change can affect a variety of physico-chemical properties with wide-ranging biological effects, but the knowledge of how climate change affects benthic distributions is limited and mainly restricted to coastal environments. To project the response of benthic species of a shelf sea (North Sea) to the expected climate change, the distributions of 75 marine benthic species were modelled and the spatial changes in distribution were projected for 2099 based on modelled bottom temperature and salinity changes using the IPCC scenario A1B. Mean bottom temperature was projected to increase between 0.15 and 5.4 °C, while mean bottom salinity was projected to moderately increase by 1.7. The spatial changes in species distribution were modelled with Maxent and the direction and extent of these changes were assessed. The results showed a latitudinal northward shift for 64% of the species (maximum 109 km; brittle star Ophiothrix fragilis) and a southward shift for 36% (maximum 101 km; hermit crab Pagurus prideaux and the associated cloak anemone Adamsia carciniopados; 105 km). The relatively low rates of distributional shifts compared to fish or plankton species were probably influenced by the regional topography. The environmental gradients in the central North Sea along the 50 m depth contour might act as a 'barrier', possibly resulting in a compression of distribution range and hampering further shifts to the north. For 49 species this resulted in a habitat loss up to 100%, while only 11 species could benefit from the warming in terms of habitat gain. Particularly the benthic communities of the southern North Sea, where the strongest temperature increase was projected, would be strongly affected by the distributional changes, since key species showed northward shifts and high rates of habitat loss, with potential ramifications for the functioning of the ecosystem.

  18. Exploring the Multifaceted Topic of Climate Change in Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

    2015-12-01

    As the effects of climate change become more profound, climate literacy becomes increasingly important. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) responds to this need through the publication of Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate. Both publications incorporate the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the USGCRP's Third National Climate Assessment. Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive, multidisciplinary information related to various topics. Additionally, each chapter closes with a For Further Exploration essay, which addresses specific topics that complement a chapter concept. Web Resources, which encourage additional exploration of chapter content, and Scientific Literature, from which chapter content was derived can also be found at the conclusion of each chapter. Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics, including the scientific principles that govern Earth's climate system and basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate the system. Released in fall 2015, Living With Our Changing Climate takes a more narrow approach and investigates human and ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change, the role of energy choices in affecting climate, actions humans can take through adaption, mitigation, and policy to lessen vulnerabilities, and psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial. While Living With Our Changing Climate is intended for programs looking to add a climate element into their curriculum, Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course. In a 2015 survey of California University of Pennsylvania undergraduate students using Our Changing Climate, 82% found it comfortable to read and utilized its interactive components and resources. Both ebooks illuminate the multidisciplinary aspect of climate change, providing the opportunity for a more sustainable future.

  19. Teaching Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donoghue, A.

    2011-09-01

    In giving public presentations about climate change, we face the barriers of mis-information in the political debate and lack of science literacy that extends to science phobia for some. In climate issues, the later problem is compounded by the fact that the science - reconstruction of past climate through the use of proxy sources, such as isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen - is complex, making it more challenging for general audiences. Also, the process of science, particularly peer review, is suspected by some to be a way of keeping science orthodox instead of keeping it honest. I approach these barriers by focusing on the data and the fact that the data have been carefully acquired over decades and centuries by dedicated people with no political agenda. I have taught elderhostel courses twice and have given many public talks on this topic. Thus I have experience in this area to share with others. I would also like to learn of others' approaches to the vast amount of scientific information and getting past the politics. A special interest group on climate change will allow those of us to speak on this important topic to share how we approach both the science and the politics of this issue.

  20. The effects of climatic change on crop production. Results of a five-year research project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mela, T.; Carter, T.; Hakala, K.; Kaukoranta, T.; Laurila, H.; Niemi, K.; Saarikko, R.; Tiilikkala, K. [Agricultural Research Centre of Finland, Jokioinen (Finland); Hannukkala, A. [Agricultural Research Centre, Rovaniemi (Finland). Lapland Research Station

    1996-12-31

    The aim of this research project, funded jointly by SILMU and by the Agricultural Research Centre of Finland, was to evaluate the possible effects of changes in climate and carbon dioxide concentration on the growth, development and yield of field crops and on crop pests and diseases in Finland. The study focused on two cereal crops (spring wheat and spring barley), a grass species (meadow fescue), some common pathogens of cereals and potato, insect pests of small fruits and nematode risk of potato and sugar beet. The results of this study indicate the following effects on crop production of the `best guess` climate change anticipated for Finland by 2050: A lengthening of the potential growing season of 3-5 weeks. A northward expansion of about 250-500 km in suitability for cereal production. Increased yields of adapted spring cereals. New, longer-season cultivars would benefit from both higher temperatures and elevated CO{sub 2}. Improved potential for the cultivation of higher-yielding winter sown cereals. Increased grass yields due to a lengthening growing season and increased growth rates, assuming that water and nutrient limitations are minor. However, there is a possibility of reduced winter hardening under higher autumn temperatures and an increased risk of winter damage. Potential for the successful cultivation of new crops like maize in southern Finland. Increased potential for yield losses due to crop pests and diseases under climatic warming. The range of many species is expected to expand northwards, additional generations of some species would develop successfully, and new species may become established in Finland. The research is continuing as part of a new European Community project, and will explore a wider range of crop types, focusing on the effects of climate change on agricultural risk at national scale

  1. Potential Effects of Future Climate Change on the Bioclimatic Habitat of Ecoregions and Managed Lands in Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafer, S. L.; Saltré, F.; Bartlein, P. J.

    2011-12-01

    Conservation and natural resource managers need information on the potential effects of climate change for the species and ecosystems they manage. We evaluated potential future changes in climate and bioclimatic habitat for ecoregions (as defined by The Nature Conservancy) and managed areas (e.g., national parks) in Oregon, USA. We used future climate simulations for the 21st century from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) data set that were produced under the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario by three coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), UKMO-HadCM3). Projected future climate anomalies were interpolated using geographic-distance-weighted bilinear interpolation to a 30-arc-second (~1-km) grid encompassing the state of Oregon. The interpolated anomalies were applied to 1961-1990 30-year mean climate data (PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State Univ.). Bioclimatic variables (e.g., growing degree days) were calculated using the interpolated climate data and soil data from the CONUS-Soil data set (Miller and White 1998). We chose bioclimatic variables that represent important physiological and environmental limits for Oregon species and habitats of management concern. Maps and multivariate descriptive plots were used to evaluate the direction, magnitude, and spatial patterns of projected future climate and bioclimatic changes. The results indicate which ecoregions and managed areas would experience the largest climate and bioclimatic changes under each of the potential future climate simulations.

  2. A Evaluation of Effects on a Ecosystem and Countermeasures in accordance with Climate Change I- Forest Ecosystem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Yong Ha; Jeon, Seong Woo; Choi, Jae Yong; Jeong Hwi Chol; Kim, Jeong Won [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    2000-12-01

    Climate change requests a lot of changes in the existing life style and economic developing system, which form the foundation of modern culture and economic/social development. Especially, in Korea, whose economic basis is mainly dependent on fossil energy, it is expected that the change of policies on climate change have a bigger effect on many-sided fields including ecosystem than other nations. Therefore, even though all of the Government, academic organizations, and private organizations have made efforts to estimate effects of climate change and to prepare countermeasures, the focus has been on forecast and evaluation of the mutual effect between industrial/economic activities and climate change. Forecast of ecosystem change and preservation of ecosystem according to climate change is another political field to promote. However, such a field has not been promoted systematically in Korea. The Institute recognizing such a current state, as part of the policy on ecosystem preservation according to climate change, forecasted the effect on forest ecosystem, analyzed the economic effects according to the effect of forest ecosystem, and started this study to prepare the countermeasures of the Government-level. This study collected and analyzed international trend and necessary data to develop the model, which would be executed in future, and then suggested the selection and development of the model fitted to Korea. There could be differences between Institute's view and the Government/other institutes. However, such differences are caused by the different methods in capturing the effects of various ecosystems. Such various approaching methods will be of great help to estimate the correct effects and to establish the Government's policies as base data. I hope that this study cannot only be applied to analyze the effects of forest ecosystem according to climate change but contribute to enlarging the understanding of various problems according to climate

  3. Climate change effects on high-elevation hydropower system in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madani Larijani, Kaveh

    The high-elevation hydropower system in California, composed of more than 150 hydropower plants and regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), supplies 74 percent of in-state hydropower. The system has modest reservoir capacities and has been designed to take advantage of snowpack. The expected shift of runoff peak from spring to winter as a result of climate warming, resulting in snowpack reduction and earlier snowmelt, might have important effects on hydropower operations. Estimation of climate warming effects on such a large system by conventional simulation or optimization methods would be tedious and expensive. This dissertation presents a novel approach for modeling large hydropower systems. Conservation of energy and energy flows are used as the basis for modeling high-elevation high-head hydropower systems in California. The unusual energy basis for reservoir modeling allows for development of hydropower operations models to estimate large-scale system behavior without the expense and time needed to develop traditional streamflow and reservoir volume-based models in absence of storage and release capacity, penstock head, and efficiency information. An Energy-Based Hydropower Optimization Model (EBHOM) is developed to facilitate a practical climate change study based on the historical generation data high-elevation hydropower plants in California. Employing recent historical hourly energy prices, energy generation in California is explored for three climate warming scenarios (dry warming, wet warming, and warming-only) over 14 years, representing a range of hydrologic conditions. Currently, the high-elevation hydropower plants in California have to renew their FERC licenses. A method based on cooperative game theory is developed to explore FERC relicensing process, in which dam owners negotiate over the available instream water with other interest groups downstream. It is discussed how the lack of incentive for cooperation results in long

  4. Evaluating the combined effects of climate and land-use change on tree species distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia-Valdes, Raul; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Zavala, Miguel A.

    2015-01-01

    Summary: A large proportion of the world's biodiversity is reportedly threatened by habitat loss and climate change. However, there are few studies that investigate the interaction between these two threats using empirical data. Here, we investigate interactions between climate change and land...... out of 23 tree species are expanding and hence not at equilibrium with the climate. However, climate change will make the future occupancy of 15 species to be lower than expected if climate, and habitat, remained stable (baseline scenario). Climate change, when combined with the loss of 20......% of the habitat, was estimated to reduce species occupancies (relative to baseline projections) by an average of 23% if habitat loss was spatially clumped, and by 35% if it was scattered. If habitat loss occurred in areas already impacted by human activities, species occupancies would be reduced by 26%. Land...

  5. Climate for Change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    around international networks. Despite the many initiatives taken by cities, existing research shows that the implementation of climate change actions is lacking. The reasons for this scarcity in practice are limited to general explanations in the literature, and studies focused on explaining...... and to investigate the institutional dynamics new institutional theory is used with an emphasis on examining institutional mechanisms in relation to building legitimacy for action. The concept of mechanisms can help explain how and why constraints on action occur, and the concept of legitimacy is useful to clarify...... the strategies used by officials to enable climate change action. A long running criticism of institutional theory is the emphasis on how institutions constrain actions rather than act as productive phenomena that facilitate action. Emergent strands within new institutional theory emphasise the role of agency...

  6. CLIMATE CHANGE IN KYIV: WAYS TO CONTERACT AND MINIMIZE NEGATIVE EFFECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Bazylevych

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available ital issues of climate change in Kyiv are studied with elucidation of the need for developing a comprehensive research technique to analyse and assess a cumulative impact of the process. The study exposes anthropogenic and natural factors responsible for climate formation in Kyiv and the climatic changes. With an account for recent international experience the proposals are formulated how to make use of contemporary administrative, economic, legal and regulatory levers to forestall climatic changes in the capital and cope with the negative environmental aftermath.

  7. Modelling Regional Climate Change Effects On Potential Natural Ecosystems in Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koca, D.; Smith, B.; Sykes, M.T. [Centre for GeoBiosphere Science, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University, Soelvegatan 12, S-223 62 Lund (Sweden)

    2006-10-15

    This study aims to demonstrate the potential of a process-based regional ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, driven by climate scenarios generated by a regional climate model system (RCM) to generate predictions useful for assessing effects of climatic and CO2 change on the key ecosystem services of carbon uptake and storage. Scenarios compatible with the A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and with boundary conditions from two general circulation models (GCMs) - HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 - were used in simulations to explore changes in tree species distributions, vegetation structure, productivity and ecosystem carbon stocks for the late 21st Century, thus accommodating a proportion of the GCM-based and emissions-based uncertainty in future climate development. The simulations represented in this study were of the potential natural vegetation ignoring direct anthropogenic effects. Results suggest that shifts in climatic zones may lead to changes in species distribution and community composition among seven major tree species of natural Swedish forests. All four climate scenarios were associated with an extension of the boreal forest treeline with respect to altitude and latitude. In the boreal and boreo-nemoral zones, the dominance of Norway spruce and to a lesser extent Scots pine was reduced in favour of deciduous broadleaved tree species. The model also predicted substantial increases in vegetation net primary productivity (NPP), especially in central Sweden. Expansion of forest cover and increased local biomass enhanced the net carbon sink over central and northern Sweden, despite increased carbon release through decomposition processes in the soil. In southern Sweden, reduced growing season soil moisture levels counterbalanced the positive effects of a longer growing season and increased carbon supply on NPP, with the result that many areas were converted from a sink to a source of carbon by the late 21st

  8. Effects of Climate Change and Fisheries Bycatch on Shy Albatross (Thalassarche cauta) in Southern Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, Robin B; Alderman, Rachael L; Tuck, Geoffrey N; Hobday, Alistair J

    2015-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on marine species are often compounded by other stressors that make direct attribution and prediction difficult. Shy albatrosses (Thalassarche cauta) breeding on Albatross Island, Tasmania, show an unusually restricted foraging range, allowing easier discrimination between the influence of non-climate stressors (fisheries bycatch) and environmental variation. Local environmental conditions (rainfall, air temperature, and sea-surface height, an indicator of upwelling) during the vulnerable chick-rearing stage, have been correlated with breeding success of shy albatrosses. We use an age-, stage- and sex-structured population model to explore potential relationships between local environmental factors and albatross breeding success while accounting for fisheries bycatch by trawl and longline fisheries. The model uses time-series of observed breeding population counts, breeding success, adult and juvenile survival rates and a bycatch mortality observation for trawl fishing to estimate fisheries catchability, environmental influence, natural mortality rate, density dependence, and productivity. Observed at-sea distributions for adult and juvenile birds were coupled with reported fishing effort to estimate vulnerability to incidental bycatch. The inclusion of rainfall, temperature and sea-surface height as explanatory variables for annual chick mortality rate was statistically significant. Global climate models predict little change in future local average rainfall, however, increases are forecast in both temperatures and upwelling, which are predicted to have detrimental and beneficial effects, respectively, on breeding success. The model shows that mitigation of at least 50% of present bycatch is required to offset losses due to future temperature changes, even if upwelling increases substantially. Our results highlight the benefits of using an integrated modeling approach, which uses available demographic as well as environmental data

  9. Effects of Climate Change and Fisheries Bycatch on Shy Albatross (Thalassarche cauta in Southern Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robin B Thomson

    Full Text Available The impacts of climate change on marine species are often compounded by other stressors that make direct attribution and prediction difficult. Shy albatrosses (Thalassarche cauta breeding on Albatross Island, Tasmania, show an unusually restricted foraging range, allowing easier discrimination between the influence of non-climate stressors (fisheries bycatch and environmental variation. Local environmental conditions (rainfall, air temperature, and sea-surface height, an indicator of upwelling during the vulnerable chick-rearing stage, have been correlated with breeding success of shy albatrosses. We use an age-, stage- and sex-structured population model to explore potential relationships between local environmental factors and albatross breeding success while accounting for fisheries bycatch by trawl and longline fisheries. The model uses time-series of observed breeding population counts, breeding success, adult and juvenile survival rates and a bycatch mortality observation for trawl fishing to estimate fisheries catchability, environmental influence, natural mortality rate, density dependence, and productivity. Observed at-sea distributions for adult and juvenile birds were coupled with reported fishing effort to estimate vulnerability to incidental bycatch. The inclusion of rainfall, temperature and sea-surface height as explanatory variables for annual chick mortality rate was statistically significant. Global climate models predict little change in future local average rainfall, however, increases are forecast in both temperatures and upwelling, which are predicted to have detrimental and beneficial effects, respectively, on breeding success. The model shows that mitigation of at least 50% of present bycatch is required to offset losses due to future temperature changes, even if upwelling increases substantially. Our results highlight the benefits of using an integrated modeling approach, which uses available demographic as well as

  10. Climate change effects on the marine characteristics of the Aegean and Ionian Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makris, Christos; Galiatsatou, Panagiota; Tolika, Konstantia; Anagnostopoulou, Christina; Kombiadou, Katerina; Prinos, Panayotis; Velikou, Kondylia; Kapelonis, Zacharias; Tragou, Elina; Androulidakis, Yannis; Athanassoulis, Gerasimos; Vagenas, Christos; Tegoulias, Ioannis; Baltikas, Vassilis; Krestenitis, Yannis; Gerostathis, Theodoros; Belibassakis, Kostantinos; Rusu, Eugen

    2016-12-01

    This paper addresses the effects of estimated climate change on the sea-surface dynamics of the Aegean and Ionian Seas (AIS). The main aim is the identification of climate change impacts on the severity and frequency of extreme storm surges and waves in areas of the AIS prone to flooding. An attempt is made to define design levels for future research on coastal protection in Greece. Extreme value analysis is implemented through a nonstationary generalized extreme value distribution function, incorporating time harmonics in its parameters, by means of statistically defined criteria. A 50-year time span analysis is adopted and changes of means and extremes are determined. A Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) is implemented with dynamical downscaling, forced by ECHAM5 fields under 20C3M historical data for the twentieth century and the SRES-A1B scenario for the twenty-first century. Storm surge and wave models (GreCSSM and SWAN, respectively) are used for marine climate simulations. Comparisons of model results with reanalysis and field data of atmospheric and hydrodynamic characteristics, respectively, are in good agreement. Our findings indicate that the dynamically downscaled RegCM3 simulation adequately reproduces the present general circulation patterns over the Mediterranean and Greece. Future changes in sea level pressure and mean wind fields are estimated to be small, yet significant for marine extremes. In general, we estimate a projected intensification of severe wave and storm surge events during the first half of the twenty-first century and a subsequent storminess attenuation leading to the resettlement of milder extreme marine events with increased prediction uncertainty in the second half of the twenty-first century.

  11. Climate Change Justice

    OpenAIRE

    Sunstein, Cass R.; Posner, Eric A.

    2007-01-01

    Greenhouse gas reductions would cost some nations much more than others and benefit some nations far less than others. Significant reductions would impose especially large costs on the United States, and recent projections suggest that the United States has relatively less to lose from climate change. In these circumstances, what does justice require the United States to do? Many people believe that the United States is required to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions beyond the point that is ...

  12. Confronting Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mintzer, Irving M.

    1992-06-01

    This book, which was published in time for the Earth Summit in Brazil in June 1992, is likely to make a huge impact on the political and economic agendas of international policy makers. It summarizes the scientific findings of Working Group I of the IPCC in the first part of the book. While acknowledging the uncertainties in subsequent chapters, it challenges and expands upon the existing views on how we should tackle the problems of climate change.

  13. Effects of climate-induced changes in isoprene emissions after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Telford

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available In the 1990s the rates of increase of greenhouse gas concentrations, most notably of methane, were observed to change, for reasons that have yet to be fully determined. This period included the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo and an El Niño warm event, both of which affect biogeochemical processes, by changes in temperature, precipitation and radiation. We examine the impact of these changes in climate on global isoprene emissions and the effect these climate dependent emissions have on the hydroxy radical, OH, the dominant sink for methane. We model a reduction of isoprene emissions in the early 1990s, with a maximum decrease of 40 Tg(C/yr in late 1992 and early 1993, a change of 9%. This reduction is caused by the cooler, drier conditions following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. Isoprene emissions are reduced both directly, by changes in temperature and a soil moisture dependent suppression factor, and indirectly through reductions in the total biomass. The reduction in isoprene emissions causes increases of tropospheric OH which lead to an increased sink for methane of up to 5 Tg/year, comparable to estimated source changes over the time period studied.

  14. Climate change and disaster management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Geoff; O'Keefe, Phil; Rose, Joanne; Wisner, Ben

    2006-03-01

    Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A focus that neglects to enhance capacity-building and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. Reducing vulnerability is a key aspect of reducing climate change risk. To do so requires a new approach to climate change risk and a change in institutional structures and relationships. A focus on development that neglects to enhance governance and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks.

  15. Contributions of Psychology to Limiting Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Paul C.

    2011-01-01

    Psychology can make a significant contribution to limiting the magnitude of climate change by improving understanding of human behaviors that drive climate change and human reactions to climate-related technologies and policies, and by turning that understanding into effective interventions. This article develops a framework for psychological…

  16. Science Teachers' Perspectives about Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Vaille

    2012-01-01

    Climate change and its effects are likely to present challenging problems for future generations of young people. It is important for Australian students to understand the mechanisms and consequences of climate change. If students are to develop a sophisticated understanding, then science teachers need to be well-informed about climate change…

  17. Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Tomé, Margarida; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.

  18. Investigation of urbanization effect on climate change in South China by WRF model

    OpenAIRE

    Q. Li; J. Chen

    2009-01-01

    It is found from statistical analysis that urban effects have great impact on climate change in South China, especially in recent year with the fast economic development in China. Minimum temperature and precipitation tend to be greater in urban area than in rural region. This study tends to prove this urban effect in South China, especially the Pearl River Delta region by using Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). In this study, we use two land use data of Pearl River Delta in 1980 ...

  19. Responding to the Consequences of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrand, Peter H.

    2011-01-01

    The talk addresses the scientific consensus concerning climate change, and outlines the many paths that are open to mitigate climate change and its effects on human activities. Diverse aspects of the changing water cycle on Earth are used to illustrate the reality climate change. These include melting snowpack, glaciers, and sea ice; changes in runoff; rising sea level; moving ecosystems, an more. Human forcing of climate change is then explained, including: greenhouse gasses, atmospheric aerosols, and changes in land use. Natural forcing effects are briefly discussed, including volcanoes and changes in the solar cycle. Returning to Earth's water cycle, the effects of climate-induced changes in water resources is presented. Examples include wildfires, floods and droughts, changes in the production and availability of food, and human social reactions to these effects. The lk then passes to a discussion of common human reactions to these forecasts of climate change effects, with a summary of recent research on the subject, plus several recent historical examples of large-scale changes in human behavior that affect the climate and ecosystems. Finally, in the face for needed action on climate, the many options for mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects are presented, with examples of the ability to take affordable, and profitable action at most all levels, from the local, through national.

  20. Climate change and air pollution: Effects on pollen allergy and other allergic respiratory diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Amato, Gennaro; Bergmann, Karl Christian; Cecchi, Lorenzo; Annesi-Maesano, Isabella; Sanduzzi, Alessandro; Liccardi, Gennaro; Vitale, Carolina; Stanziola, Anna; D'Amato, Maria

    The observational evidence indicates that recent regional changes in climate, particularly temperature increases, have already affected a diverse set of physical and biological systems in many parts of the world. Allergens patterns are also changing in response to climate change and air pollution can modify the allergenic potential of pollen grains especially in the presence of specific weather conditions. Although genetic factors are important in the development of asthma and allergic diseases, their rising trend can be explained only by changes occurring in the environment and urban air pollution by motor vehicles has been indicated as one of the major risk factors responsible for this increase. Despite some differences in the air pollution profile and decreasing trends of some key air pollutants, air quality is an important concern for public health in the cities throughout the world. Due to climate change, air pollution patterns are changing in several urbanized areas of the world with a significant effect on respiratory health. The underlying mechanisms of all these interactions are not well known yet. The consequences on health vary from decreases in lung function to allergic diseases, new onset of diseases, and exacerbation of chronic respiratory diseases. In addition, it is important to recall that an individual's response to pollution exposure depends on the source and components of air pollution, as well as meteorological conditions. Indeed, some air pollution-related incidents with asthma aggravation do not depend only on the increased production of air pollution, but rather on atmospheric factors that favor the accumulation of air pollutants at ground level. Associations between thunderstorms and asthma morbidity of pollinosis-affected people have also been identified in multiple locations around the world (Fig.1). Cite this as D'Amato G, Bergmann KC, Cecchi L, Annesi-Maesano I, Sanduzzi A, Liccardi G, Vitale C, Stanziola A, D'Amato M. Climate change

  1. Simulating the effect of glacial sea level changes on Indo-Pacific climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Nezio, P. N.; Tierney, J. E.; Timmermann, A.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Mapes, B. E.

    2014-12-01

    Lowered sea level during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) altered the geography of the Maritime Continent exposing the Sunda shelf. Multi-proxy evidence indicates that the exposure of the Sunda shelf has a first-order effect on the climate of the Indo-Pacific warm pool. The climate response involves changes in the Walker circulation driven by a massive reduction in atmospheric deep convection over the Sunda shelf. Few climate models participating in the Paleo Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) are capable of simulating this response. Using the Community Earth System Model Version 1 (CESM1) we show that a models ability of to simulate this response depends on the formulation of the atmospheric deep convection scheme. Using CESM1 we also find that the Indian Ocean amplifies the response via the Bjerknes feedback. This results in a large reorganization of the climate of the Indian Ocean, which during the LGM resembles the Pacific, with a cold tongue and dry conditions in the east, and warmer SSTs and wetter conditions in the west. Ideas for testing these mechanisms using proxy data will be discussed.

  2. Animal Agriculture in a Changing Climate Online Course: An Effective Tool for Creating Extension Competency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitefield, Elizabeth; Schmidt, David; Witt-Swanson, Lindsay; Smith, David; Pronto, Jennifer; Knox, Pam; Powers, Crystal

    2016-01-01

    There is a need to create competency among Extension professionals on the topic of climate change adaptation and mitigation in animal agriculture. The Animal Agriculture in a Changing Climate online course provides an easily accessible, user-friendly, free, and interactive experience for learning science-based information on a national and…

  3. Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: progress report, 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrady, Anthony; Aucamp, Pieter J; Bais, Alkiviadis F; Ballaré, Carlos L; Björn, Lars Olof; Bornman, Janet F; Caldwell, Martyn; Cullen, Anthony P; Erickson, David J; deGruijl, Frank R; Häder, Donat-P; Ilyas, Mohammad; Kulandaivelu, G; Kumar, H D; Longstreth, Janice; McKenzie, Richard L; Norval, Mary; Paul, Nigel; Redhwi, Halim Hamid; Smith, Raymond C; Solomon, Keith R; Sulzberger, Barbara; Takizawa, Yukio; Tang, Xiaoyan; Teramura, Alan H; Torikai, Ayako; van der Leun, Jan C; Wilson, Stephen R; Worrest, Robert C; Zepp, Richard G

    2010-03-01

    The parties to the Montreal Protocol are informed by three panels of experts. One of these is the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP), which deals with UV radiation and its effects on human health, animals, plants, biogeochemistry, air quality and materials. Since 2000, the analyses and interpretation of these effects have included interactions between UV radiation and global climate change. When considering the effects of climate change, it has become clear that processes resulting in changes in stratospheric ozone are more complex than believed previously. As a result of this, human health and environmental problems will likely be longer-lasting and more regionally variable. Like the other panels, the EEAP produces a detailed report every four years; the most recent was that for 2006 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2007, 6, 201-332). In the years in between, the EEAP produces a less detailed and shorter progress report, as is the case for this present one for 2009. A full quadrennial report will follow for 2010.

  4. Double Exposure: Photographing Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, D. P.; Wake, C. P.; Romanow, G. B.

    2008-12-01

    Double Exposure, Photographing Climate Change, is a fine-art photography exhibition that examines climate change through the prism of melting glaciers. The photographs are twinned shots of glaciers, taken in the mid-20th century by world-renowned photographer Brad Washburn, and in the past two years by Boston journalist/photographer David Arnold. Arnold flew in Washburn's aerial "footprints", replicating stunning black and white photographs, and documenting one irreversible aspect of climate change. Double Exposure is art with a purpose. It is designed to educate, alarm and inspire its audiences. Its power lies in its beauty and the shocking changes it has captured through a camera lens. The interpretive text, guided by numerous experts in the fields of glaciology, global warming and geology, helps convey the message that climate change has already forced permanent changes on the face of our planet. The traveling exhibit premiered at Boston's Museum of Science in April and is now criss-crossing the nation. The exhibit covers changes in the 15 glaciers that have been photographed as well as related information about global warming's effect on the planet today.

  5. A Lesson on Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Jim

    This cooperative learning activity, for grades 7-12, promotes critical thinking skills within the context of learning about the causes and effects of climate change. Objectives include: (1) understanding factors that reduce greenhouse gases; (2) understanding the role of trees in reducing greenhouse gases; (3) identifying foods that produce…

  6. The Science of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppenheimer, Michael; Anttila-Hughes, Jesse K.

    2016-01-01

    Michael Oppenheimer and Jesse Anttila-Hughes begin with a primer on how the greenhouse effect works, how we know that Earth is rapidly getting warmer, and how we know that the recent warming is caused by human activity. They explain the sources of scientific knowledge about climate change as well as the basis for the models scientists use to…

  7. The Effects of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in an AOGCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Feng; Newman, Paul; Pawson, Steven; Waugh, Darryn

    2014-01-01

    Stratospheric ozone depletion has played a dominant role in driving Antarctic climate change in the last decades. In order to capture the stratospheric ozone forcing, many coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) prescribe the Antarctic ozone hole using monthly and zonally averaged ozone field. However, the prescribed ozone hole has a high ozone bias and lacks zonal asymmetry. The impacts of these biases on model simulations, particularly on Southern Ocean and the Antarctic sea ice, are not well understood. The purpose of this study is to determine the effects of using interactive stratospheric chemistry instead of prescribed ozone on Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate change in an AOGCM. We compare two sets of ensemble simulations for the 1960-2010 period using different versions of the Goddard Earth Observing System 5 - AOGCM: one with interactive stratospheric chemistry, and the other with prescribed monthly and zonally averaged ozone and 6 other stratospheric radiative species calculated from the interactive chemistry simulations. Consistent with previous studies using prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, the interactive chemistry runs simulate a deeper Antarctic ozone hole and consistently larger changes in surface pressure and winds than the prescribed ozone runs. The use of a coupled atmosphere-ocean model in this study enables us to determine the impact of these surface changes on Southern Ocean circulation and Antarctic sea ice. The larger surface wind trends in the interactive chemistry case lead to larger Southern Ocean circulation trends with stronger changes in northerly and westerly surface flow near the Antarctica continent and stronger upwelling near 60S. Using interactive chemistry also simulates a larger decrease of sea ice concentrations. Our results highlight the importance of using interactive chemistry in order to correctly capture the influences of stratospheric ozone depletion on climate

  8. Climate change effects on the Baltic Sea borderland between land and sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strandmark, Alma; Bring, Arvid; Cousins, Sara A O; Destouni, Georgia; Kautsky, Hans; Kolb, Gundula; de la Torre-Castro, Maricela; Hambäck, Peter A

    2015-01-01

    Coastal habitats are situated on the border between land and sea, and ecosystem structure and functioning is influenced by both marine and terrestrial processes. Despite this, most scientific studies and monitoring are conducted either with a terrestrial or an aquatic focus. To address issues concerning climate change impacts in coastal areas, a cross-ecosystem approach is necessary. Since habitats along the Baltic coastlines vary in hydrology, natural geography, and ecology, climate change projections for Baltic shore ecosystems are bound to be highly speculative. Societal responses to climate change in the Baltic coastal ecosystems should have an ecosystem approach and match the biophysical realities of the Baltic Sea area. Knowledge about ecosystem processes and their responses to a changing climate should be integrated within the decision process, both locally and nationally, in order to increase the awareness of, and to prepare for climate change impacts in coastal areas of the Baltic Sea.

  9. Final report: The effect of climate change on the Norwegian Energy System towards 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seljom, P.; Rosenberg, E.; Fidje, A.; Meir, M.; Haugen, J.E.; Jarlseth, T.

    2010-08-15

    The climate impact on the renewable resources, end use demand, and on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050 is identified. Climate change will reduce the heat demand, increase the cooling demand, result in no impact on the wind power potential, and increase the hydro power potential. The total impact is reduced energy system costs, and lower Norwegian electricity prices. The net electricity export will increase, and national investments in new renewable power production like offshore wind- , tidal- and wave power will decrease due to climate change. Additionally, the electricity consumption in the residential and in the commercial sector will decrease, and climate change will lead to an earlier profitable implementation of electric based vehicles in Norway. Despite great uncertainties in the future climate, various future emission scenarios are compatible regarding the Norwegian climate impact, although the magnitude of the impact varies. (Author)

  10. Potential Effects of Climate Change on Treeline Position in the Swedish Mountains

    OpenAIRE

    2004-01-01

    Climate change may strongly influence species distribution and, thus, the structure and function of ecosystems. This paper describes simulated changes in the position of the upper treeline in the Swedish mountains in response to predicted climate change. Data on predicted summer temperature changes, the current position of the treeline, and a digital elevation model were used to predict the position of the treeline over a 100-year timeframe. The results show the treeline advancing upward by 2...

  11. Climate change trend and its effects on reference evapotranspiration at Linhe Station, Hetao Irrigation District

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu-ming WANG

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Linhe National Meteorological Station, a representative weather station in the Hetao Irrigation District of China, was selected as the research site for the present study. Changes in climatic variables and reference evapotranspiration (ET0 (estimated by the Penman-Monteith method were detected using Mann-Kendall tests and Sen’s slope estimator, respectively. The authors analyzed the relationship between the change and each climatic variable’s change. From 1954 to 2012, the air temperature showed a significant increasing trend, whereas relative humidity and wind speed decreased dramatically. These changes resulted in a slight increase in . The radiative component of total increased from 50% to 57%, indicating that this component made a greater contribution to the increase in total than the aerodynamic component, especially during the crop growing season (from April to October. The sensitivity analysis showed that in Hetao is most sensitive to mean daily air temperature (11.8%, followed by wind speed (−7.3% and relative humidity (4.8%. Changes in sunshine duration had only a minor effect on over the past 59 years.

  12. Climate change trend and its effects on reference evapotranspiration at Linhe Station, Hetao Irrigation District

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xu-ming WANG; Hai-jun LIU; Li-wei ZHANG; Rui-hao ZHANG

    2014-01-01

    Linhe National Meteorological Station, a representative weather station in the Hetao Irrigation District of China, was selected as the research site for the present study. Changes in climatic variables and reference evapotranspiration ( 0ET ) (estimated by the Penman-Monteith method) were detected using Mann-Kendall tests and Sen’s slope estimator, respectively. The authors analyzed the relationship between the 0ET change and each climatic variable’s change. From 1954 to 2012, the air temperature showed a significant increasing trend, whereas relative humidity and wind speed decreased dramatically. These changes resulted in a slight increase in 0ET . The radiative component of total 0ET increased from 50% to 57%, indicating that this component made a greater contribution to the increase in total 0ET than the aerodynamic component, especially during the crop growing season (from April to October). The sensitivity analysis showed that 0ET in Hetao is most sensitive to mean daily air temperature (11.8%), followed by wind speed (-7.3%) and relative humidity (4.8%). Changes in sunshine duration had only a minor effect on 0ET over the past 59 years.

  13. The Effects of climatic change in the Netherlands, 2012; Effecten van klimaatverandering in Nederland, 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Minnen, J.; Ligtvoet, W. (eds.)

    2012-07-15

    This study is an update of the 2005 study: how is the situation at present with respect to the climate in the Netherlands, which effects are now more or less perceptible, are there new insights into the opportunities and risks of climate change, and to what extent are these future opportunities and risks embedded in the various policy issues? [Dutch] Deze studie is een actualisering van de studie uit 2005: hoe is het op dit moment gesteld met de klimaatverandering in Nederland, welke effecten daarvan zijn nu meer of minder waarneembaar, zijn er nieuwe inzichten in de kansen en risico's van klimaatverandering, en in hoeverre zijn deze toekomstige kansen en risico's in de verschillende beleidsdossiers verankerd?.

  14. Interactive effects of water diversion and climate change for juvenile chinook salmon in the lemhi river basin (USA.).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walters, Annika W; Bartz, Krista K; McClure, Michelle M

    2013-12-01

    The combined effects of water diversion and climate change are a major conservation challenge for freshwater ecosystems. In the Lemhi Basin, Idaho (U.S.A.), water diversion causes changes in streamflow, and climate change will further affect streamflow and temperature. Shifts in streamflow and temperature regimes can affect juvenile salmon growth, movement, and survival. We examined the potential effects of water diversion and climate change on juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), a species listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). To examine the effects for juvenile survival, we created a model relating 19 years of juvenile survival data to streamflow and temperature and found spring streamflow and summer temperature were good predictors of juvenile survival. We used these models to project juvenile survival for 15 diversion and climate-change scenarios. Projected survival was 42-58% lower when streamflows were diverted than when streamflows were undiverted. For diverted streamflows, 2040 climate-change scenarios (ECHO-G and CGCM3.1 T47) resulted in an additional 11-39% decrease in survival. We also created models relating habitat carrying capacity to streamflow and made projections for diversion and climate-change scenarios. Habitat carrying capacity estimated for diverted streamflows was 17-58% lower than for undiverted streamflows. Climate-change scenarios resulted in additional decreases in carrying capacity for the dry (ECHO-G) climate model. Our results indicate climate change will likely pose an additional stressor that should be considered when evaluating the effects of anthropogenic actions on salmon population status. Thus, this type of analysis will be especially important for evaluating effects of specific actions on a particular species. Efectos Interactivos de la Desviación del Agua y el Cambio Climático en Individuos Juveniles de Salmón Chinook en la Cuenca del Río Lemhi (E.U.A.).

  15. Climate change regional review: Russia

    OpenAIRE

    Sharmina, Maria; Anderson, Kevin; Bows-Larkin, Alice

    2013-01-01

    With climate change, an increasingly important focus of scientific and policy discourse, the Russian government has aimed to position the country as one of the leaders of the global process for addressing climate change. This article reviews a breadth of literature to analyze the politico-economic situation in Russia with regard to international climate change negotiations, related domestic policies, societal attitudes, and climatic change impacts on Russia's territory. The analysis demonstra...

  16. Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: progress report, 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrady, Anthony L; Aucamp, Pieter J; Austin, Amy T; Bais, Alkiviadis F; Ballaré, Carlos L; Björn, Lars Olof; Bornman, Janet F; Caldwell, Martyn; Cullen, Anthony P; Erickson, David J; de Gruijl, Frank R; Häder, Donat-P; He, Walter; Ilyas, Mohammad; Longstreth, Janice; Lucas, Robyn; McKenzie, Richard L; Madronich, Sasha; Norval, Mary; Paul, Nigel D; Redhwi, Halim Hamid; Robinson, Sharon; Shao, Min; Solomon, Keith R; Sulzberger, Barbara; Takizawa, Yukio; Tang, Xiaoyan; Torikai, Ayako; van der Leun, Jan C; Williamson, Craig E; Wilson, Stephen R; Worrest, Robert C; Zepp, Richard G

    2012-01-01

    The parties to the Montreal Protocol are informed by three panels of experts. One of these is the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP), which deals with two focal issues. The first focus is the effects of increased UV radiation on human health, animals, plants, biogeochemistry, air quality, and materials. The second focus is on interactions between UV radiation and global climate change and how these may affect humans and the environment. When considering the effects of climate change, it has become clear that processes resulting in changes in stratospheric ozone are more complex than believed previously. As a result of this, human health and environmental problems will be longer-lasting and more regionally variable. Like the other panels, the EEAP produces a detailed report every four years; the most recent was published in 2010 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2011, 10, 173-300). In the years in between, the EEAP produces less detailed and shorter progress reports, which highlight and assess the significance of developments in key areas of importance to the parties. The next full quadrennial report will be published in 2014-2015.

  17. Risk-Based Reanalysis of the Effects of Climate Change on US Cold-water Habitat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Preston, B.L. [Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2101 Wilson Boulevard, Suite 550, Arlington, Virginia 22201 (United States)

    2006-05-15

    A probabilistic risk assessment was conducted for the effects of future climate change on U.S. cold-water habitat. Damage functions for the loss of current cold-water fish habitat in the United States and the Rocky Mountain region were integrated with probability distributions for U.S. June/July/August (JJA) temperature change using Monte Carlo techniques. Damage functions indicated temperature thresholds for incipient losses (=5%) of cold-water habitat in the United States and the Rocky Mountains of 0.6 and 0.4C, respectively. Median impacts associated with different temperature distributions suggested habitat loss in 2025, 2050, and 2100 of approximately 10, 20, and 30%, respectively, for the United States and 20, 35, and 50%, respectively, in the Rocky Mountains. However, 2100 losses in excess of 60% and 90% were possible for the United States and the Rocky Mountains, respectively, albeit at low probabilities. The implementation of constraints on greenhouse gas emissions conforming to the WRE750/550/350 stabilization scenarios had little effect on reducing habitat loss out to 2050, but median effects in 2100 were reduced by up to 20, 30, and 60%, respectively. Increased focus on probabilistic risk assessment may be a profitable mechanism for enhancing understanding and communication of climate change impacts and, subsequently, risk management.

  18. The Conundrum of Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization and the Urban Heat Island Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.

    2011-01-01

    The twenty-first century is the first urban century according to the United Nations Development Program. The focus on cities reflects awareness of the growing percentage of the world's population that lives in urban areas. In 2000, approximately 3 billion people representing about 40% of the global population resided in urban areas. The United Nations estimates that by 2025, 60% of the world s population will live in urban areas. As a consequence, the number of megacities (those cities with populations of 10 million inhabitants or more) will increase by 100 by 2025. Thus, there is a critical need to understand the spatial growth of urban areas and what the impacts are on the environment. Moreover, there is a critical need to assess how under global climate change, cities will affect the local, regional, and even global climate. As urban areas increase in size, it is anticipated there will be a concomitant growth of the Urban Heat Island effect (UHI), and the attributes that are related to its spatial and temporal dynamics. Therefore, how climate change, including the dynamics of the UHI, will affect the urban environment, must be explored to help mitigate potential impacts on the environment (e.g., air quality, heat stress, vectorborne disease) and on human health and well being, to develop adaptation schemes to cope with these impacts.

  19. Updating soil CO2 emission experiments to assess climate change effects and extracellular soil respiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal Vazquez, Eva; Paz Ferreiro, Jorge

    2014-05-01

    Experimental work is an essential component in training future soil scientists. Soil CO2 emission is a key issue because of the potential impacts of this process on the greenhouse effect. The amount of organic carbon stored in soils worldwide is about 1600 gigatons (Gt) compared to 750 Gt in the atmosphere mostly in the form of CO2. Thus, if soil respiration increased slightly so that just 10% of the soil carbon pool was converted to CO2, atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere could increase by one-fifth. General circulation model predictions indicate atmosphere warming between 2 and 5°C (IPCC 2007) and precipitation changes ranging from about -15 to +30%. Traditionally, release of CO2 was thought to occur only in an intracellular environment; however, recently CO2 emissions have been in irradiated soil, in the absence of microorganisms (Maire et al., 2013). Moreover, soil plays a role in the stabilization of respiration enzymes promoting CO2 release after microorganism death. Here, we propose to improve CO2 emission experiments commonly used in soil biology to investigate: 1) effects of climatic factors on soil CO2 emissions, and 2) rates of extracellular respiration in soils and how these rates are affected by environmental factors. Experiment designed to assess the effect of climate change can be conducted either in field conditions under different ecosystems (forest, grassland, cropland) or in a greenhouse using simple soil chambers. The interactions of climate change in CO2 emissions are investigated using climate-manipulation experiment that can be adapted to field or greenhouse conditions (e.g. Mc Daniel et al., 2013). The experimental design includes a control plot (without soil temperature and rain manipulation) a warming treatment as well as wetting and/or drying treatments. Plots are warmed to the target temperature by procedures such as infrared heaters (field) or radiant cable (greenhouse). To analyze extracellular respiration, rates of CO2

  20. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    The absence of a global agreement on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions calls for adaptation to climate change. The associated paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change...

  1. Direct and indirect effects of climate change on a prairie plant community.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter B Adler

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Climate change directly affects species by altering their physical environment and indirectly affects species by altering interspecific interactions such as predation and competition. Recent studies have shown that the indirect effects of climate change may amplify or counteract the direct effects. However, little is known about the the relative strength of direct and indirect effects or their potential to impact population persistence. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We studied the effects of altered precipitation and interspecific interactions on the low-density tiller growth rates and biomass production of three perennial grass species in a Kansas, USA mixed prairie. We transplanted plugs of each species into local neighborhoods of heterospecific competitors and then exposed the plugs to a factorial manipulation of growing season precipitation and neighbor removal. Precipitation treatments had significant direct effects on two of the three species. Interspecific competition also had strong effects, reducing low-density tiller growth rates and aboveground biomass production for all three species. In fact, in the presence of competitors, (log tiller growth rates were close to or below zero for all three species. However, we found no convincing evidence that per capita competitive effects changed with precipitation, as shown by a lack of significant precipitation x competition interactions. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We found little evidence that altered precipitation will influence per capita competitive effects. However, based on species' very low growth rates in the presence of competitors in some precipitation treatments, interspecific interactions appear strong enough to affect the balance between population persistence and local extinction. Therefore, ecological forecasting models should include the effect of interspecific interactions on population growth, even if such interaction coefficients are treated as constants.

  2. Climate Change Effects to Plant Ecosystems - Genetic Resources for Future Barley Breeding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz

    A growing population and a considerable increase in living standards worldwide are increasing the demand on the primary production. At the same time, climate change is projected to lower the primary production due to increases in the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide ([CO2]) and ozone...... production. Within the network ‘Sustainable primary production in a changing climate’ 22-138 spring barley accessions have been grown in the climate phytotron RERAF under conditions mimicking climate change; 1) elevated temperature (+5 °C), [CO2] (700 ppm) and [O3] (100-150 ppb) as single factors, 2...... treatments were assessed. In addition, a genome-wide association study of recorded phenotypes and DNA-markers (from Illumina arrays) recognized novel marker-trait associations of production parameters under climate change conditions. In a future climate scenario of elevated temperature and [CO2] the grain...

  3. The Second Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kao, Shih-Chieh [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Ashfaq, Moetasim [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Naz, Bibi S. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Uria Martinez, Rocio [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Rastogi, Deeksha [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Mei, Rui [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Jager, Yetta [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Samu, Nicole M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Sale, Michael J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2016-09-01

    Hydropower is a key contributor to the US renewable energy portfolio due to its established development history and the diverse benefits it provides to the electric power system. Ensuring the sustainable operation of existing hydropower facilities is of great importance to the US renewable energy portfolio and the reliability of electricity grid. As directed by Congress in Section 9505 of the SECURE Water Act (SWA) of 2009 (Public Law 111-11), the US Department of Energy (DOE), in consultation with the federal Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs) and other federal agencies, has prepared a second quinquennial report on examining the potential effects of climate change on water available for hydropower at federal facilities and on the marketing of power from these federal facilities. This Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Technical Memorandum, referred to as the 9505 assessment, describes the technical basis for the report to Congress that was called for in the SWA. To evaluate the potential climate change effects on 132 federal hydropower plants across the entire US, a spatially consistent assessment approach is designed to enable an interregional comparison. This assessment uses a series of models and methods with different spatial resolutions to gradually downscale the global climate change signals into watershed-scale hydrologic projections to support hydropower impact assessment. A variety of historic meteorological and hydrologic observations, hydropower facility characteristics, and geospatial datasets is collected to support model development, calibration, and verification. Among most of the federal hydropower plants throughout the US, the most important climate change effect on hydrology is likely to be the trend toward earlier snowmelt and change of runoff seasonality. Under the projections of increasing winter/spring runoff and decreasing summer/fall runoff, water resource managers may need to consider different water use allocations. With the

  4. AN EVALUATION OF FARMERS’ PERCEPTIONS OF AND ADAPTATION TO THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN KENYA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hilary K. Ndambiri

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The study was carried out to evaluate how farmers in Kyuso District have perceived and adapted to climate change. Data was collected from 246 farmers from six locations sampled out through a multistage and simple random sampling procedure. The Heckman probit model was fitted to the data to avoid sample selection bias since not every farmer who may perceive climate change responds by adapting. The analysis revealed that 94% of farmers in Kyuso District had a perception that climate was changing and as a result, 85% of these farmers had responded by adapting. In this regard, age of the household head, gender, education, farm experience, household size, distance to the nearest market, access to irrigation water, local agro-ecology, on and off farm income, access to information on climate change through extension services, access to credit, changes in temperature and precipitation were found to have significant influence on the probability of farmers to perceive and/or adapt to climate change. With the level of perception to climate change being more than that of adaptation, the study suggests that more policy efforts should be geared towards helping farmers to adapt to climate change

  5. Climate change threatens European conservation areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Miguel B; Alagador, Diogo; Cabeza, Mar; Nogués-Bravo, David; Thuiller, Wilfried

    2011-01-01

    Europe has the world's most extensive network of conservation areas. Conservation areas are selected without taking into account the effects of climate change. How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change? We assess the effectiveness of protected areas and the Natura 2000 network in conserving a large proportion of European plant and terrestrial vertebrate species under climate change. We found that by 2080, 58 ± 2.6% of the species would lose suitable climate in protected areas, whereas losses affected 63 ± 2.1% of the species of European concern occurring in Natura 2000 areas. Protected areas are expected to retain climatic suitability for species better than unprotected areas (P<0.001), but Natura 2000 areas retain climate suitability for species no better and sometimes less effectively than unprotected areas. The risk is high that ongoing efforts to conserve Europe's biodiversity are jeopardized by climate change. New policies are required to avert this risk. PMID:21447141

  6. Immediate challenge of combating climate change: Effective implementation of energy efficiency policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morvaj, Zoran; Bukarica, Vesna

    2010-09-15

    Energy efficiency is the most readily available, rapid and cost-effective way to achieve desired greenhouse gases reductions. Therefore, it is the focus of energy and climate change policies world wide. The results of these policies are still missing in the desired extent, even in the EU, which has the most advanced energy efficiency policy. The main reason behind this policy failure is a complete lack of focus on implementing capacities that would ensure full policy uptake. Embracing full-scale energy management systems in public and business sectors and mobilisation of and cooperation between all stakeholders are the way towards higher efficiency.

  7. Direct and indirect effects of climate change on herbicide leaching--a regional scale assessment in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steffens, Karin; Jarvis, Nicholas; Lewan, Elisabet; Lindström, Bodil; Kreuger, Jenny; Kjellström, Erik; Moeys, Julien

    2015-05-01

    Climate change is not only likely to improve conditions for crop production in Sweden, but also to increase weed pressure and the need for herbicides. This study aimed at assessing and contrasting the direct and indirect effects of climate change on herbicide leaching to groundwater in a major crop production region in south-west Sweden with the help of the regional pesticide fate and transport model MACRO-SE. We simulated 37 out of the 41 herbicides that are currently approved for use in Sweden on eight major crop types for the 24 most common soil types in the region. The results were aggregated accounting for the fractional coverage of the crop and the area sprayed with a particular herbicide. For simulations of the future, we used projections of five different climate models as model driving data and assessed three different future scenarios: (A) only changes in climate, (B) changes in climate and land-use (altered crop distribution), and (C) changes in climate, land-use, and an increase in herbicide use. The model successfully distinguished between leachable and non-leachable compounds (88% correctly classified) in a qualitative comparison against regional-scale monitoring data. Leaching was dominated by only a few herbicides and crops under current climate and agronomic conditions. The model simulations suggest that the direct effects of an increase in temperature, which enhances degradation, and precipitation which promotes leaching, cancel each other at a regional scale, resulting in a slight decrease in leachate concentrations in a future climate. However, the area at risk of groundwater contamination doubled when indirect effects of changes in land-use and herbicide use, were considered. We therefore concluded that it is important to consider the indirect effects of climate change alongside the direct effects and that effective mitigation strategies and strict regulation are required to secure future (drinking) water resources.

  8. EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DAIRY PRODUCTION IN BOTSWANA AND ITS SUITABLE MITIGATION STRATEGIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. MOREKI

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the effects of climate change on dairy production in Botswana and mitigation strategies are suggested. Dairy farming has not experienced growth over time rendering the country heavily dependent on milk imports. National dairy herd is estimated to be approximately 5000 and per capita consumption of milk about 32.5 litres per person per year. Currently, Botswana is experiencing average high temperatures and low rainfall, frequent droughts and scarcity of both ground and surface water, which all contribute to low livestock and crop productivity. Changes in rainfall patterns, frequent droughts, high incidences of animal diseases (e.g., mastitis and FMD and parasites, and high environmental temperatures cause significant decrease in livestock productivity. For dairy animals, there is a decline in milk yield and reduced animal weight gain due mainly to high temperatures and inadequate feeds. Mitigation strategies comprise using smaller dairy breeds such as Jersey and Brown Swiss and local Tswana breed, growing fodder crops and utilization of crop residues and constructing cow sheds. Thus, the effects of climate change on dairy cattle production are real and require immediate attention if they are to be minimized or managed properly to attain higher milk production.

  9. Climate change alters leaf anatomy, but has no effects on volatile emissions from Arctic plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schollert, Michelle; Kivimäenpää, Minna; Valolahti, Hanna M; Rinnan, Riikka

    2015-10-01

    Biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions are expected to change substantially because of the rapid advancement of climate change in the Arctic. BVOC emission changes can feed back both positively and negatively on climate warming. We investigated the effects of elevated temperature and shading on BVOC emissions from arctic plant species Empetrum hermaphroditum, Cassiope tetragona, Betula nana and Salix arctica. Measurements were performed in situ in long-term field experiments in subarctic and high Arctic using a dynamic enclosure system and collection of BVOCs into adsorbent cartridges analysed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. In order to assess whether the treatments had resulted in anatomical adaptations, we additionally examined leaf anatomy using light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy. Against expectations based on the known temperature and light-dependency of BVOC emissions, the emissions were barely affected by the treatments. In contrast, leaf anatomy of the studied plants was significantly altered in response to the treatments, and these responses appear to differ from species found at lower latitudes. We suggest that leaf anatomical acclimation may partially explain the lacking treatment effects on BVOC emissions at plant shoot-level. However, more studies are needed to unravel why BVOC emission responses in arctic plants differ from temperate species.

  10. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kanchan Joshi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has materialized as the leading global environmental concern. Agriculture is one of the zones most critically distressed by climate alteration. As global temperature rises and climate conditions become more erratic posing threat to the vegetation, biodiversity, biological progression and have enduring effect on food security as well as human health. The present review emphasizes multiple consequences of climate change on agricultural productivity.

  11. Case grows for climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hileman, B.

    1999-08-09

    In the four years since the IPCC stated that 'the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate', evidence for anomalous warming has become more compelling, and as a result scientists have become more concerned that human-induced climate change has already arrived. The article summarises recent extra evidence on global temperatures, carbon dioxide measurements, ice shelf breakup, coral bleaching, unstable climates and improved climate models. At the time of the Kyoto conference, the US became keen on the idea that enhancing forest and soil carbon sequestration was a good way to offset emissions reduction targets. Congress is however under the opinion on that the Kyoto protocol presents a threat to the US economy, and senate is very unlikely to ratify the protocol during the Clinton Administration. The debate as to whether the US government should mandate major emission reduction or wait for more scientific certainty may continue for a number of years, but, growing concern of scientists and the public for the harmful effects of climate change may cause a change. 4 figs., 8 photos.

  12. Climate change, zoonoses and India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, B B; Sharma, R; Gill, J P S; Aulakh, R S; Banga, H S

    2011-12-01

    Economic trends have shaped our growth and the growth of the livestock sector, but atthe expense of altering natural resources and systems in ways that are not always obvious. Now, however, the reverse is beginning to happen, i.e. environmental trends are beginning to shape our economy and health status. In addition to water, air and food, animals and birds play a pivotal role in the maintenance and transmission of important zoonotic diseases in nature. It is generally considered that the prevalence of vector-borne and waterborne zoonoses is likely to increase in the coming years due to the effects of global warming in India. In recent years, vector-borne diseases have emerged as a serious public health problem in countries of the South-East Asia region, including India. Vector-borne zoonoses now occur in epidemic form almost on an annual basis, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. New reservoir areas of cutaneous leishmaniosis in South India have been recognised, and the role of climate change in its re-emergence warrants further research, as does the role of climate change in the ascendancy of waterborne and foodborne illness. Similarly, climate change that leads to warmer and more humid conditions may increase the risk of transmission of airborne zoonoses, and hot and drier conditions may lead to a decline in the incidence of disease(s). The prevalence of these zoonotic diseases and their vectors and the effect of climate change on important zoonoses in India are discussed in this review.

  13. Attributing the effects of climate on phenology change suggests high sensitivity in coastal zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seyednasrollah, B.; Clark, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    The impact of climate change on spring phenology depends on many variables that cannot be separated using current models. Phenology can influence carbon sequestration, plant nutrition, forest health, and species distributions. Leaf phenology is sensitive to changes of environmental factors, including climate, species composition, latitude, and solar radiation. The many variables and their interactions frustrate efforts to attribute variation to climate change. We developed a Bayesian framework to quantify the influence of environment on the speed of forest green-up. This study presents a state-space hierarchical model to infer and predict change in forest greenness over time using satellite observations and ground measurements. The framework accommodates both observation and process errors and it allows for main effects of variables and their interactions. We used daily spaceborne remotely sensed data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to quantify temporal variability in the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) along a habitat gradient in the Southeastern United States. The ground measurements of meteorological parameters are obtained from study sites located in the Appalachian Mountains, the Piedmont and the Atlantic Coastal Plain between years 2000 and 2015. Results suggest that warming accelerates spring green-up in the Coastal Plain to a greater degree than in the Piedmont and Appalachian. In other words, regardless of variation in the timing of spring onset, the rate of greenness in non-coastal zones decreases with increasing temperature and hence with time over the spring transitional period. However, in coastal zones, as air temperature increases, leaf expansion becomes faster. This may indicate relative vulnerability to warming in non-coastal regions where moisture could be a limiting factor, whereas high temperatures in regions close to the coast enhance forest physiological activities. Model predictions agree with the remotely

  14. Effects of climate change on subterranean termite territory size: a simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sang-Hee; Chon, Tae-Soo

    2011-01-01

    In order to study how climate change affects the territory size of subterranean termites, a lattice model was used to simulate the foraging territory of the Formosan subterranean termite, Coptotermes formosanus Shiraki (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae), and the minimized local rules that are based on empirical data from the development of termites' foraging territory was applied. A landscape was generated by randomly assigning values ranging from 0.0 to 1.0 to each lattice site, which represented the spatially distributed property of the landscape. At the beginning of the simulation run, N territory seeds - one for each founding pair, were randomly distributed on the lattice space. The territories grew during the summer and shrank during the winter. In the model, the effects of climate change were demonstrated by changes in two variables: the period of the summer season, T, and the percentage of the remaining termite cells, σ, after the shrinkage. The territory size distribution was investigated in the size descending order for the values of T (= 10, 15, ... , 50) and σ (= 10, 15, ... , 50) at a steady state after a sufficiently long time period. The distribution was separated into two regions: the larger-sized territories and the smaller-sized territories. The slope, m, of the distribution of territory size on a semi-log scale for the larger-sized territories was maximal with T (45 ≤ T ≤ 50) in the maximal range and with σ in the optimal range (30 ≤ σ ≤ 40), regardless of the value of N. The results suggest that the climate change can influence the termite territory size distribution under the proper balance of T and σ in combination.

  15. Effects of climate and land management change on streamflow in the driftless area of Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juckem, P.F.; Hunt, R.J.; Anderson, M.P.; Robertson, D.M.

    2008-01-01

    Baseflow and precipitation in the Kickapoo River Watershed, located in the Driftless Area of Wisconsin, exhibit a step increase around 1970, similar to minimum and median flows in many other central and eastern USA streams. Potential effects on streamflow due to climatic and land management changes were evaluated by comparing volumetric changes in the hydrologic budget before and after 1970. Increases in precipitation do not fully account for the increase in baseflow, which appears to be offset by a volumetric decrease in stormflow. This suggests that factors that influence the partitioning of precipitation into overland runoff or infiltration have changed. A transition from relatively more intensive to relatively less intensive agricultural land use is generally associated with higher infiltration rates, and likely influences partitioning of flow. Changes in agricultural land management practices in the Driftless Area, which began in the mid-1930s, do not coincide with the abrupt increase in baseflow around 1970. Instead, the timing of hydrologic change appears to coincide with changes in precipitation, whereas the magnitude of the change in baseflow and stormflow was likely amplified by changes in agricultural land management. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Effect of Climate Change on Plant-Microbe Interaction: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swati Tyagi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is one of the major issues affecting all of us on our planet. Predicted increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation due to climate change may add complexity and uncertainty to plant and agricultural systems and threaten their sustainable management. It is well known that beneficial plant-associated microorganisms may stimulate plant growth and enhance resistance to disease and abiotic stresses. Climate change will also influence crop quality and the dynamics of the relationships between pests/diseases and crops. Changes in climatic factors like temperature, solar radiation and precipitation have potentials to influence crop production. This now makes it possible to test whether some general patterns occur and whether different groups of plant-associated microorganisms respond differently or in the same way to climate change. Here, we review and discuss how the climatic parameters including atmospheric CO2 and temperature influence the plant–microbe interaction in polluted soils. This review shows that predicting how plant–microbes interaction responds to altering climatic change is critical to select suitable crop plants that would be able to produce more yields and may tolerate multi-stress conditions

  17. Climate change threatens European conservation areas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bastos Araujo, Miguel; Alagador, Diogo; Cabeza, Mar;

    2011-01-01

    Europe has the world's most extensive network of conservation areas. Conservation areas are selected without taking into account the effects of climate change. How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change? We assess the effectiveness of protected areas and the Natur...

  18. Effects of climate change and variability on population dynamics in a long-lived shorebird

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Pol, Martijn; Vindenes, Yngvild; Saether, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar; Ens, Bruno J.; Oosterbeek, Kees; Tinbergen, Joost M.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change affects both the mean and variability of climatic variables, but their relative impact on the dynamics of populations is still largely unexplored. Based on a long-term study of the demography of a declining Eurasian Oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) population, we quantify the eff

  19. Predicting plant diversity patterns in Madagascar: understanding the effects of climate and land cover change in a biodiversity hotspot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Kerry A; Parks, Katherine E; Bethell, Colin A; Johnson, Steig E; Mulligan, Mark

    2015-01-01

    Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover) based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar's plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future.

  20. Predicting plant diversity patterns in Madagascar: understanding the effects of climate and land cover change in a biodiversity hotspot.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerry A Brown

    Full Text Available Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar's plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future.

  1. Effect of climate changes on the soil freezing depth in the Volga River basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. L. Kalyuzhny

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available It is established that the climate warming leads to decrease in depth of soil freezing in the whole area basin of the River Volga. This effect is observed since 1978. Depths of soil freezing averaged over the whole basin decreased relative to values measured during the period of stable climate conditions by 34 cm, i.e. from 92 up to 58 cm, or by 37%. In the Northern part of the basin, the depths have decreased by 49%, in the Western, Eastern, and Southern areas – 39, 24 and 38%, respectively. The spatial variability of the depths is estimated by the example of the river Vyatka, the large tributary of the Volga with area of 124 000 km2 and the site «Log Usadjevsky» with area of 2.0 km2 (a part of experimental polygon of the Valdai waterbalance station. It is shown that the coefficient of variation of the freezing depth decreases when the depth increases. When the depth becomes smaller 60 cm plots of thawed soil appear that significantly increases the infiltration ability of the basin. The technique of estimating the soil freezing depth under change of climate characteristics is proposed.

  2. Communicating Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, M. E.

    2009-12-01

    I will discuss the various challenges scientists must confront in efforts to communicate the science and implications of climate change to the public. Among these challenges is the stiff headwind we must fight of a concerted disinformation effort designed to confuse the public about the nature of our scientific understanding of the problem and the reality of the underlying societal threat. We also must fight the legacy of the public’s perception of the scientist. That is to say, we must strive to communicate in plainspoken language that neither insults the intelligence of our audience, nor hopelessly loses them in jargon and science-speak. And through all of this, we must maintain our composure and good humor even in the face of what we might consider the vilest of tactics by our opposition. When it comes to how best to get our message out to the broader public, I don’t pretend to have all of the answers. But I will share some insights and anecdotes that I have accumulated over the course of my own efforts to inform the public about the reality of climate change and the potential threat that it represents.

  3. Indigenous Peoples and Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelton H. Davis

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available There has been a growing attention on the need to take into account the effects of global climate change. This is particularly so with respect to the increasing amount of green house gas emissions from the Untied States and Europe affecting poor peoples, especially those in developing countries. In 2003, for example, the experts of several international development agencies, including the World Bank, prepared a special report titled “Poverty and Climate Change: Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor through Adaptation” (OECD 2003. This report followed the Eighth Session of the Conference of Parties (COP8 to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC in New Delhi, India in October 2002. It showed that poverty reduction is not only one of the major challenges of the 21st century, but also that climate change is taking place in many developing countries and is increasingly affecting, in a negative fashion, both the economic conditions and the health of poor people and their communities.

  4. The potential effects of climate change on the native vascular flora of North America. A preliminary climate envelopes analysis: Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morse, L.E.; Kutner, L.S.; Maddox, G.D.; Honey, L.L.; Thurman, C.M. [Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA (United States); Kartesz, J.T. [North Carolina Botanical Garden, Chapel Hill, NC (United States); Chaplin, S.J. [Nature Conservancy, Minneapolis, MN (United States). Midwestern heritage Task Force

    1993-11-01

    To assess the potential effects of global warming on the North American flora, the reported geographical distributions of the 15,148 native North American vascular plant species were matched with climate data for 194 geographical areas to estimate the current ``climate envelope`` for each species. Three methods of analysis were used to construct these envelopes, all based on the limits of mean annual temperatures currently experienced by each species within its present range. Published models of future climates predict a possible increase in mean annual temperatures of 3{degree}C (5.4{degree}F) within the next century. Assuming that species might be eliminated from areas outside their present climate envelope, then about 7% to 11% of North America`s native plant species would be entirely out of their envelopes in a +3{degree}C climate. Rare species would be disproportionately affected -- between 10% and 18% of these species would be entirely out of their climate envelopes. However, some rare species may be able to persist at their present sites due to the availability of suitable microhabitats or genetic variation in climate tolerances. Of the more common species, only about 1% to 2% would be vulnerable in a +3{degree}C climate. The local effects of climate change on plant species would vary considerably if species withdraw from the southern or low-elevation portions of their ranges. Species may expand their ranges northwards as new areas become climatically suitable for them, producing significant changes in local floras. Species vary in their ability to make such migrations, depending upon limitations imposed by dispersal ability and/or specialized habitat requirements. An estimate of dispersibility suggests that species with narrow climate envelopes tend to lack characteristics promoting mobility.

  5. Politics of climate change belief

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Donald Trump's actions during the election and his first weeks as US president-elect send a strong message about his belief in climate change, or lack thereof. However, these actions may reflect polarization of climate change beliefs, not climate mitigation behaviour.

  6. Climate change effect on Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) pollen seasons in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yong; Bielory, Leonard; Georgopoulos, Panos G.

    2014-07-01

    Climatic change is expected to affect the spatiotemporal patterns of airborne allergenic pollen, which has been found to act synergistically with common air pollutants, such as ozone, to cause allergic airway disease (AAD). Observed airborne pollen data from six stations from 1994 to 2011 at Fargo (North Dakota), College Station (Texas), Omaha (Nebraska), Pleasanton (California), Cherry Hill and Newark (New Jersey) in the US were studied to examine climate change effects on trends of annual mean and peak value of daily concentrations, annual production, season start, and season length of Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) pollen. The growing degree hour (GDH) model was used to establish a relationship between start/end dates and differential temperature sums using observed hourly temperatures from surrounding meteorology stations. Optimum GDH models were then combined with meteorological information from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and land use land coverage data from the Biogenic Emissions Land use Database, version 3.1 (BELD3.1), to simulate start dates and season lengths of birch and oak pollen for both past and future years across the contiguous US (CONUS). For most of the studied stations, comparison of mean pollen indices between the periods of 1994-2000 and 2001-2011 showed that birch and oak trees were observed to flower 1-2 weeks earlier; annual mean and peak value of daily pollen concentrations tended to increase by 13.6 %-248 %. The observed pollen season lengths varied for birch and for oak across the different monitoring stations. Optimum initial date, base temperature, and threshold GDH for start date was found to be 1 March, 8 °C, and 1,879 h, respectively, for birch; 1 March, 5 °C, and 4,760 h, respectively, for oak. Simulation results indicated that responses of birch and oak pollen seasons to climate change are expected to vary for different regions.

  7. Climate change effect on Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) pollen seasons in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yong; Bielory, Leonard; Georgopoulos, Panos G

    2014-07-01

    Climatic change is expected to affect the spatiotemporal patterns of airborne allergenic pollen, which has been found to act synergistically with common air pollutants, such as ozone, to cause allergic airway disease (AAD). Observed airborne pollen data from six stations from 1994 to 2011 at Fargo (North Dakota), College Station (Texas), Omaha (Nebraska), Pleasanton (California), Cherry Hill and Newark (New Jersey) in the US were studied to examine climate change effects on trends of annual mean and peak value of daily concentrations, annual production, season start, and season length of Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) pollen. The growing degree hour (GDH) model was used to establish a relationship between start/end dates and differential temperature sums using observed hourly temperatures from surrounding meteorology stations. Optimum GDH models were then combined with meteorological information from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and land use land coverage data from the Biogenic Emissions Land use Database, version 3.1 (BELD3.1), to simulate start dates and season lengths of birch and oak pollen for both past and future years across the contiguous US (CONUS). For most of the studied stations, comparison of mean pollen indices between the periods of 1994-2000 and 2001-2011 showed that birch and oak trees were observed to flower 1-2 weeks earlier; annual mean and peak value of daily pollen concentrations tended to increase by 13.6%-248%. The observed pollen season lengths varied for birch and for oak across the different monitoring stations. Optimum initial date, base temperature, and threshold GDH for start date was found to be 1 March, 8 °C, and 1,879 h, respectively, for birch; 1 March, 5 °C, and 4,760 h, respectively, for oak. Simulation results indicated that responses of birch and oak pollen seasons to climate change are expected to vary for different regions.

  8. Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: progress report, 2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    This year the Montreal Protocol celebrates its 20th Anniversary. In September 1987, 24 countries signed the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. Today 191 countries have signed and have met strict commitments on phasing out of ozone depleting substances with the result that a 95% reduction of these substances has been achieved. The Montreal Protocol has also contributed to slowing the rate of global climate change, since most of the ozone depleting substances are also effective greenhouse gases. Even though much has been achieved, the future of the stratospheric ozone layer relies on full compliance of the Montreal Protocol by all countries for the remaining substances, including methyl bromide, as well as strict monitoring of potential risks from the production of substitute chemicals. Also the ozone depleting substances existing in banks and equipment need special attention to prevent their release to the stratosphere. Since many of the ozone depleting substances already in the atmosphere are long-lived, recovery cannot be immediate and present projections estimate a return to pre-1980 levels by 2050 to 2075. It has also been predicted that the interactions of the effects of the ozone layer and that of other climate change factors will become increasingly important.

  9. Optimum soil frost depth to alleviate climate change effects in cold region agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanai, Yosuke; Iwata, Yukiyoshi; Hirota, Tomoyoshi

    2017-03-01

    On-farm soil frost control has been used for the management of volunteer potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L.), a serious weed problem caused by climate change, in northern Japan. Deep soil frost penetration is necessary for the effective eradication of unharvested small potato tubers; however, this process can delay soil thaw and increase soil wetting in spring, thereby delaying agricultural activity initiation and increasing nitrous oxide emissions from soil. Conversely, shallow soil frost development helps over-wintering of unharvested potato tubers and nitrate leaching from surface soil owing to the periodic infiltration of snowmelt water. In this study, we synthesised on-farm snow cover manipulation experiments to determine the optimum soil frost depth that can eradicate unharvested potato tubers without affecting agricultural activity initiation while minimising N pollution from agricultural soil. The optimum soil frost depth was estimated to be 0.28–0.33 m on the basis of the annual maximum soil frost depth. Soil frost control is a promising practice to alleviate climate change effects on agriculture in cold regions, which was initiated by local farmers and further promoted by national and local research institutes.

  10. Planning for Climate Change: Actions for the Army to Better Adapt to the Effects of Climate Change in 2030

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-01

    how governments around the world react to global warming . As a general matter, CC effects are expected to worsen as GHG concentrations continue to...gradually. So how do GHGs affect global temperatures, which then affect CC? The key mechanism is greenhouse warming , where certain gases, most notably...show that global temperatures and GHG content in the atmosphere are both increasing, both factors owing mostly to anthropogenic (human-caused

  11. Climate Change: Natural Water and Fertilization Effects on Winter Rye (Secale cereale L.) Yield in Monoculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    László Phd, M., ,, Dr.

    2009-04-01

    increased 0.6 0C (Hulme et al., 2002; Láng et al., 2004; Jolánkai, 2005; Várallyay, 2005). In the coming decades, global plant production faces the prospect of a changing climate and environment, too the known challenge of continuing to feed the world's population, predicted to double its present level of six billion by about the year 2050. The prospective climate change is global warming with associated changes in hydrological regimes and other climatic variables induced by the increasing concentration of radiatively active greenhouse gases. Climate change could have far-reaching effects on patterns of trade among nations, development, and food security (Rosenzweig et al., 1993). These changes (largely caused by human activities) are likely to affect crop yields differently form region to region across the globe (Márton, 2004., 2005ab., Seth & Jeffrey 2005). Significant issue that becomes apparent from even a cursory summary of existing knowledge is that from the crop's perspective the important point is the net effect of all the environmental changes that occur, or might occur, at any given place and time. Today, plenty of agricultural investigations focused on understanding the relation between mean climate change and crop production (Várallyay, 1992; Rajendra, 2004; JolánkaI, 2005). Few investigations, however, studied the effects of climate variability on agriculture crop yields (Németh, 2004). The response of agricultural crop yield to changes in climate variability were attributed primrily to changes in the frequency of extreme climatic events (EU, 2003). Recent studies demonstrated a greater effect on the frequency of extreme climatic events than changes in the mean climatic response (EM, 2004). Hence, in studying the effects of climatic change on crop production, the changes in the climatic variability and associated weather patterns should be included (Barrow et al., 2000). Changes in weather patterns were observed thoughout Europe (including Hungary) as

  12. Climate change and trace gases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Kharecha, Pushker; Russell, Gary; Lea, David W; Siddall, Mark

    2007-07-15

    Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. One feedback, the 'albedo flip' property of ice/water, provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that 'flips' the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm. Inertia of ice sheet and ocean provides only moderate delay to ice sheet disintegration and a burst of added global warming. Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the largest human-made climate forcing, but other trace constituents are also important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO2 emissions and reduce non-CO2 forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. The most important of the non-CO2 forcings is methane (CH4), as it causes the second largest human-made GHG climate forcing and is the principal cause of increased tropospheric ozone (O3), which is the third largest GHG forcing. Nitrous oxide (N2O) should also be a focus of climate mitigation efforts. Black carbon ('black soot') has a high global warming potential (approx. 2000, 500 and 200 for 20, 100 and 500 years, respectively) and deserves greater attention. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could preserve Arctic ice, while also having major benefits for human health, agricultural productivity and the global environment.

  13. Synergistic effects of the invasive Chinese tallow (Triadica sebifera) and climate change on aquatic amphibian survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saenz, Daniel; Fucik, Erin M; Kwiatkowski, Matthew A

    2013-11-01

    Changes in climate and the introduction of invasive species are two major stressors to amphibians, although little is known about the interaction between these two factors with regard to impacts on amphibians. We focused our study on an invasive tree species, the Chinese tallow (Triadica sebifera), that annually sheds its leaves and produces leaf litter that is known to negatively impact aquatic amphibian survival. The purpose of our research was to determine whether the timing of leaf fall from Chinese tallow and the timing of amphibian breeding (determined by weather) influence survival of amphibian larvae. We simulated a range of winter weather scenarios, ranging from cold to warm, by altering the relative timing of when leaf litter and amphibian larvae were introduced into aquatic mesocosms. Our results indicate that amphibian larvae survival was greatly affected by the length of time Chinese tallow leaf litter decomposes in water prior to the introduction of the larvae. Larvae in treatments simulating warm winters (early amphibian breeding) were introduced to the mesocosms early in the aquatic decomposition process of the leaf litter and had significantly lower survival compared with cold winters (late amphibian breeding), likely due to significantly lower dissolved oxygen levels. Shifts to earlier breeding phenology, linked to warming climate, have already been observed in many amphibian taxa, and with most climate models predicting a significant warming trend over the next century, the trend toward earlier breeding should continue if not increase. Our results strongly suggest that a warming climate can interact with the effects of invasive plant species, in ways we have not previously considered, to reduce the survival of an already declining group of organisms.

  14. NEW INSTITUTIONAL TASKS TO EFFICIENT RESPONSE AGAINST THE ECOLOGICAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucretia Mariana Constantinescu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is a priority for the European Union. The strategies and plans developed into European Union aims to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases, while encouraging other nations and regions to do the same. Meanwhile, the European Union develops strategies for adapting to climate changes, which can’t be prevented. These strategies are certainly a significant cost but doing nothing will be more expensive on the long term.

  15. Climate change effects on the Baltic Sea borderland between land and sea

    OpenAIRE

    Strandmark, Alma; Bring, Arvid; Sara A. O. Cousins; Destouni, Georgia; Kautsky, Hans; Kolb, Gundula; de la Torre-Castro, Maricela; Hambäck, Peter A.

    2015-01-01

    Coastal habitats are situated on the border between land and sea, and ecosystem structure and functioning is influenced by both marine and terrestrial processes. Despite this, most scientific studies and monitoring are conducted either with a terrestrial or an aquatic focus. To address issues concerning climate change impacts in coastal areas, a cross-ecosystem approach is necessary. Since habitats along the Baltic coastlines vary in hydrology, natural geography, and ecology, climate change p...

  16. Climate Change and Water Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA tools and workbooks guide users to mitigate and adapt to climate change impacts. Various tools can help manage risks, others can visualize climate projections in maps. Included are comprehensive tool kits hosted by other federal agencies.

  17. Climate Change, Health, and Communication: A Primer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadwick, Amy E

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most serious and pervasive challenges facing us today. Our changing climate has implications not only for the ecosystems upon which we depend, but also for human health. Health communication scholars are well-positioned to aid in the mitigation of and response to climate change and its health effects. To help theorists, researchers, and practitioners engage in these efforts, this primer explains relevant issues and vocabulary associated with climate change and its impacts on health. First, this primer provides an overview of climate change, its causes and consequences, and its impacts on health. Then, the primer describes ways to decrease impacts and identifies roles for health communication scholars in efforts to address climate change and its health effects.

  18. Global climate change and international security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  19. Interactive effects of ozone depletion and climate change on biogeochemical cycles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zepp, Richard G; Callaghan, Terry V; Erickson, David J

    2003-01-01

    The effects of ozone depiction on global biogeochemical cycles, via increased UV-B radiation at the Earth's surface, have continued to be documented over the past 4 years. In this report we also document various effects of UV-B that interact with global climate change because the detailed interactions between ozone depletion and climate change are central to the prediction and evaluation of future Earth environmental conditions. There is increasing evidence that elevated UV-B has significant effects on the terrestrial biosphere with important implications for the cycling of carbon, nitrogen and other elements. Increased UV has been shown to induce carbon monoxide production from dead plant matter in terrestrial ecosystems, nitrogen oxide production from Arctic and Antarctic snowpacks, and halogenated substances from several terrestrial ecosystems. New studies on UV effects on the decomposition of dead leaf material confirm that these effects are complex and species-specific. Decomposition can be retarded, accelerated or remain unchanged. It has been difficult to relate effects of UV on decomposition rates to leaf litter chemistry, as this is very variable. However, new evidence shows UV effects on some fungi, bacterial communities and soil fauna that could play roles in decomposition and nutrient cycling. An important new result is that not only is nitrogen cycling in soils perturbed significantly by increased UV-B, but that these effects persist for over a decade. As nitrogen cycling is temperature dependent, this finding clearly links the impacts of ozone depletion to the ability of plants to use nitrogen in a warming global environment. There are many other potential interactions between UV and climate change impacts on terrestrial biogeochemical cycles that remain to be quantified. There is also new evidence that UV-B strongly influences aquatic carbon, nitrogen, sulfur, and metals cycling that affect a wide range of life processes. UV-B accelerates the

  20. Effects of Climate Change on Ticks and Tick-Borne Diseases in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. S. Gray

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Zoonotic tick-borne diseases are an increasing health burden in Europe and there is speculation that this is partly due to climate change affecting vector biology and disease transmission. Data on the vector tick Ixodes ricinus suggest that an extension of its northern and altitude range has been accompanied by an increased prevalence of tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change may also be partly responsible for the change in distribution of Dermacentor reticulatus. Increased winter activity of  I. ricinus is probably due to warmer winters and a retrospective study suggests that hotter summers will change the dynamics and pattern of seasonal activity, resulting in the bulk of the tick population becoming active in the latter part of the year. Climate suitability models predict that eight important tick species are likely to establish more northern permanent populations in a climate-warming scenario. However, the complex ecology and epidemiology of such tick-borne diseases as Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis make it difficult to implicate climate change as the main cause of their increasing prevalence. Climate change models are required that take account of the dynamic biological processes involved in vector abundance and pathogen transmission in order to predict future tick-borne disease scenarios.

  1. Global Climate Change Effects on Venezuela's Vulnerability to Chagas Disease is Linked to the Geographic Distribution of Five Triatomine Species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceccarelli, Soledad; Rabinovich, Jorge E

    2015-11-01

    We analyzed the possible effects of global climate change on the potential geographic distribution in Venezuela of five species of triatomines (Eratyrus mucronatus (Stal, 1859), Panstrongylus geniculatus (Latreille, 1811), Rhodnius prolixus (Stål, 1859), Rhodnius robustus (Larrousse, 1927), and Triatoma maculata (Erichson, 1848)), vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas disease. To obtain the future potential geographic distributions, expressed as climatic niche suitability, we modeled the presences of these species using two IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) future emission scenarios of global climate change (A1B and B1), the Global Climate model CSIRO Mark 3.0, and three periods of future projections (years 2020, 2060, and 2080). After estimating with the MaxEnt software the future climatic niche suitability for each species, scenario, and period of future projections, we estimated a series of indexes of Venezuela's vulnerability at the county, state, and country level, measured as the number of people exposed due to the changes in the geographical distribution of the five triatomine species analyzed. Despite that this is not a measure of the risk of Chagas disease transmission, we conclude that possible future effects of global climate change on the Venezuelan population vulnerability show a slightly decreasing trend, even taking into account future population growth; we can expect fewer locations in Venezuela where an average Venezuelan citizen would be exposed to triatomines in the next 50-70 yr.

  2. Climate Change and Intertidal Wetlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pauline M. Ross

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Intertidal wetlands are recognised for the provision of a range of valued ecosystem services. The two major categories of intertidal wetlands discussed in this contribution are saltmarshes and mangrove forests. Intertidal wetlands are under threat from a range of anthropogenic causes, some site-specific, others acting globally. Globally acting factors include climate change and its driving cause—the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. One direct consequence of climate change will be global sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and, in the longer term, the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The relative sea level rise experienced at any one locality will be affected by a range of factors, as will the response of intertidal wetlands to the change in sea level. If relative sea level is rising and sedimentation within intertidal wetlands does not keep pace, then there will be loss of intertidal wetlands from the seaward edge, with survival of the ecosystems only possible if they can retreat inland. When retreat is not possible, the wetland area will decline in response to the “squeeze” experienced. Any changes to intertidal wetland vegetation, as a consequence of climate change, will have flow on effects to biota, while changes to biota will affect intertidal vegetation. Wetland biota may respond to climate change by shifting in distribution and abundance landward, evolving or becoming extinct. In addition, impacts from ocean acidification and warming are predicted to affect the fertilisation, larval development, growth and survival of intertidal wetland biota including macroinvertebrates, such as molluscs and crabs, and vertebrates such as fish and potentially birds. The capacity of organisms to move and adapt will depend on their life history characteristics, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, inheritability of adaptive characteristics, and the predicted rates of environmental change.

  3. Change Orientations: The Effects of Organizational Climate on Principal, Teacher, and Community Transformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Page A.; Maika, Sean A.

    2008-01-01

    This research investigates the openness that teachers and principals have to change--specifically, the openness of the faculty to community pressure for change. Three dimensions of change are examined (teacher, principal, and community), as well as four aspects of organizational climate (institutional vulnerability, collegial leadership,…

  4. Climate change and the Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Anderson, Jamie; Anderson, Michael L.; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel; Maurer, Edwin P.

    2016-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages) by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes are much less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. However, the same projections agree that precipitation will be more intense when storms do arrive, even as more dry days will separate storms. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporative demands and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Sea level rise (SLR) during the 20th century was about 22cm, and is projected to increase by at least 3-fold this century. SLR together with land subsidence threatens the Delta with greater vulnerabilities to inundation and salinity intrusion. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include SLR, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflows, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict, except that native species will fare worse than invaders. Successful

  5. Public interest in climate change over the past decade and the effects of the ‘climategate’ media event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderegg, William R. L.; Goldsmith, Gregory R.

    2014-05-01

    Despite overwhelming scientific consensus concerning anthropogenic climate change, many in the non-expert public perceive climate change as debated and contentious. There is concern that two recent high-profile media events—the hacking of the University of East Anglia emails and the Himalayan glacier melt rate presented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—may have altered public opinion of climate change. While survey data is valuable for tracking public perception and opinion over time, including in response to climate-related media events, emerging methods that facilitate rapid assessment of spatial and temporal patterns in public interest and opinion could be exceptionally valuable for understanding and responding to these events’ effects. We use a novel, freely-available dataset of worldwide web search term volumes to assess temporal patterns of interest in climate change over the past ten years, with a particular focus on looking at indicators of climate change skepticism around the high-profile media events. We find that both around the world and in the US, the public searches for the issue as ‘global warming,’ rather than ‘climate change,’ and that search volumes have been declining since a 2007 peak. We observe high, but transient spikes of search terms indicating skepticism around the two media events, but find no evidence of effects lasting more than a few months. Our results indicate that while such media events are visible in the short-term, they have little effect on salience of skeptical climate search terms on longer time-scales.

  6. Coastal Risk Management in a Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Existing coastal management and defense approaches are not well suited to meet the challenges of climate change and related uncertanities. Professionals in this field need a more dynamic, systematic and multidisciplinary approach. Written by an international group of experts, "Coastal Risk...... Management in a Changing Climate" provides innovative, multidisciplinary best practices for mitigating the effects of climate change on coastal structures. Based on the Theseus program, the book includes eight study sites across Europe, with specific attention to the most vulnerable coastal environments...

  7. Climate change consequences for the indoor environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ariës, M.B.C.; Bluyssen, P.M.

    2009-01-01

    Scientists warn us about climate change and its effects on the outdoor environment. These effects can have significant consequences for the indoor environment, also in the Netherlands. Climate changes will affect different aspects of the indoor environment as well as the stakeholders of that indoor

  8. Effects of climate changes on dust aerosol over East Asia from RegCM3

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong-Feng Zhang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In order to understand impacts of global warming on dust aerosol over East Asia, a regional climate model (RegCM3 coupled with a dust model is employed to simulate the present (1991–2000, following the observed concentration of the greenhouse gases and future (2091–2100, following the A1B scenario dust aerosol. Three experiments are performed over East Asia at a horizontal resolution of 50 km, driven by the outputs from a global model of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC3.2_hires, two without (Exp.1 for the present and Exp.2 for the future and one with (Exp.3 for the future the radiative effects of dust aerosols. Effects of climate changes on dust aerosols and the feedback of radiative effects in the future are investigated by comparing differences of Exp.2 and Exp.1, Exp.3 and Exp.2, respectively. Results show that global warming will lead to the increases of dust emissions and column burden by 2% and 14% over East Asia, characterized by the increase in December–January–February–March (DJFM and the decrease in April–May (AM. Similar variations are also seen in the projected frequencies of high dust emission events, showing an advanced active season of dust in the future. The net top-of-atmosphere (TOA radiative forcing is positive over the desert source regions and negative over downwind regions, while the surface radiative forcing is negative over the domain, which will lead to a reduction of dust emissions and column burden.

  9. Climate Change Education in Earth System Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänsel, Stephanie; Matschullat, Jörg

    2013-04-01

    The course "Atmospheric Research - Climate Change" is offered to master Earth System Science students within the specialisation "Climate and Environment" at the Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg. This module takes a comprehensive approach to climate sciences, reaching from the natural sciences background of climate change via the social components of the issue to the statistical analysis of changes in climate parameters. The course aims at qualifying the students to structure the physical and chemical basics of the climate system including relevant feedbacks. The students can evaluate relevant drivers of climate variability and change on various temporal and spatial scales and can transform knowledge from climate history to the present and the future. Special focus is given to the assessment of uncertainties related to climate observations and projections as well as the specific challenges of extreme weather and climate events. At the end of the course the students are able to critically reflect and evaluate climate change related results of scientific studies and related issues in media. The course is divided into two parts - "Climate Change" and "Climate Data Analysis" and encompasses two lectures, one seminar and one exercise. The weekly "Climate change" lecture transmits the physical and chemical background for climate variation and change. (Pre)historical, observed and projected climate changes and their effects on various sectors are being introduced and discussed regarding their implications for society, economics, ecology and politics. The related seminar presents and discusses the multiple reasons for controversy in climate change issues, based on various texts. Students train the presentation of scientific content and the discussion of climate change aspects. The biweekly lecture on "Climate data analysis" introduces the most relevant statistical tools and methods in climate science. Starting with checking data quality via tools of exploratory

  10. Increases in the climate change adaption effectiveness and availability of vegetation across a coastal to desert climate gradient in metropolitan Los Angeles, CA, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tayyebi, Amin; Jenerette, G Darrel

    2016-04-01

    Urbanization has increased heat in the urban environment, with many consequences for human health and well-being. Managing climate change in part through increasing vegetation is desired by many cities to mitigate current and future heat related issues. However, little information is available on what influences the current effectiveness and availability of vegetation for local cooling. In this study, we identified the variation in the interacting relationships among vegetation (normalized difference vegetation index), socioeconomic status (neighborhood income), elevation and land surface temperature (LST) to identify how vegetation based surface cooling services change throughout the pronounced coastal to desert climate gradient of the Los Angeles, CA metropolitan region, a megacity of >18 million residents. A key challenge for understanding variation in vegetation as a climate change adaptation tool spanning neighborhood to megacity scales is developing new "big data" analytical tools. We used structural equation modeling (SEM) to quantify the interacting relationships among socio-economic status data obtained from government census data, elevation and new LST and vegetation data obtained from an airborne imaging campaign conducted in 2013 for the urban and suburban areas across a series of fifteen climate zones. Vegetation systematically increased in cooling effectiveness from 6.06 to 31.77 degrees with increasing distance from the coast. Vegetation and neighborhood income were positively correlated throughout all climate zones with a peak in the relationship occurring near 25km from the coast. Because of the interaction between these two relationships, we also found that higher income neighborhoods were cooler and that this effect peaked at about 30km from the coast. These results show the availability and effectiveness of vegetation on the local climate varies tremendously throughout the Los Angeles, CA metropolitan area. Further, using the more inland climate

  11. Philosophy of climate science part I: observing climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Frigg, Roman; Thompson, Erica; Werndl, Charlotte

    2015-01-01

    This is the first of three parts of an introduction to the philosophy of climate science. In this first part about observing climate change, the topics of definitions of climate and climate change, data sets and data models, detection of climate change, and attribution of climate change will be discussed.

  12. Evaluation of the greenhouse effect. Climate changes: from models to negotiations; Le point sur l`effet de serre. Changement de climat: des modeles aux negociations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cointe, R. [Ministere de l`Environnement, 75 - Paris (France). Mission interministerielle de l`effet de serre

    1997-01-01

    This paper takes stock of scientific works and negotiations in progress about climatic changes linked with greenhouse effect. The scientists opinion about the noxiousness of greenhouse gases (CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, tropospheric O{sub 3}, CFC and their substitutes) inducing climate warming (0,5 deg. C as an average during the 20. Century) is reported. The forecasting about the evolution and organisation of the international effort (United Nations Climate Convention, Berlin`s Commission), and the French contribution on this topic is analyzed. (N.K.).

  13. Increasing the effectiveness of native forest regeneration and reforestation: towards climate-change adaptation in drylands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Branquinho, Cristina; Príncipe, Adriana; Nunes, Alice; Kobel, Melanie; Soares, Cristina; Pinho, Pedro

    2016-04-01

    The recent expansion of the semiarid climate to all the region of the south of Portugal and the growing impact of climate change demands local adaptation. The growth of the native forest represents a strategy at the ecosystem level to adapt to climate change since it increases resilience and increases also de delivery of ecosystem services such as the increment of organic matter in the soil, carbon and nitrogen, biodiversity, water infiltration, etc. Moreover decreases susceptibility to desertification. For that reason, large areas have been reforested in the south of Portugal with the native species holm oak and cork oak but with a low rate of effectiveness. Our goal in this work is to show how the cost-benefit relation of the actions intended to expand the forest of the Portuguese semiarid can be lowered by taking into account the microclimatic conditions and high spatial resolution management. The potential of forest regeneration was modelled at the local and regional level in the semiarid area using information concerning the Potential Solar Radiation. This model gives us the rate of native forest regeneration after a disturbance with high spatial resolution. Based on this model the territory was classified in: i) easy regeneration areas; ii) areas with the need of assisted reforestation, using methods that increase water and soil conservation; iii) areas of difficult reforestation because of the costs. Additionally a summary of the success of reforestations was made in the historical semiarid since the 60s based on the evaluation of a series of case studies, where we quantified the ecosystem services currently delivered by the reforested ecosystems. Acknowledgement: Programa Adapt: financed by EEA Grants and Fundo Português de Carbono

  14. Climate change and marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Anthony J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Brander, Keith

    2012-01-01

    A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change...... ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC......) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change...

  15. UV radiation in global climate change. Measurements, modeling and effects on ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gao, Wei; Slusser, James R. (eds.) [Colorado State Univ., CO (United States). Natural Resource Ecology Lab.; Schmoldt, Daniel L. [Waterfront Centre, Washington, DC (United States). Cooperative State Research Education and Extension Service

    2010-07-01

    Numerous studies report that ultraviolet (UV) radiation is harmful to living organisms and detrimental to human health. Growing concerns regarding the increased levels of UV-B radiation that reach the earth's surface have led to the development of ground- and space-based measurement programs. Further study is needed on the measurement, modeling, and effects of UV radiation. The chapters of this book describe the research conducted across the globe over the past three decades in the areas of: (1) current and predicted levels of UV radiation and its associated impact on ecosystems and human health, as well as economic and social implications; (2) new developments in UV instrumentation, advances in calibration (ground- and satellite-based), measurement methods, modeling efforts, and their applications; and (3) the effects of global climate change on UV radiation. (orig.)

  16. The Effect of Land Cover/Land Use Changes on the Regional Climate of the USA High Plains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denis Mutiibwa

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available We present the detection of the signatures of land use/land cover (LULC changes on the regional climate of the US High Plains. We used the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI as a proxy of LULC changes and atmospheric CO2 concentrations as a proxy of greenhouse gases. An enhanced signal processing procedure was developed to detect the signatures of LULC changes by integrating autoregression and moving average (ARMA modeling and optimal fingerprinting technique. The results, which are representative of the average spatial signatures of climate response to LULC change forcing on the regional climate of the High Plains during the 26 years of the study period (1981–2006, show a significant cooling effect on the regional temperatures during the summer season. The cooling effect was attributed to probable evaporative cooling originating from the increasing extensive irrigation in the region. The external forcing of atmospheric CO2 was included in the study to suppress the radiative warming effect of greenhouse gases, thus, enhancing the LULC change signal. The results show that the greenhouse gas radiative warming effect in the region is significant, but weak, compared to the LULC change signal. The study demonstrates the regional climatic impact of anthropogenic induced atmospheric-biosphere interaction attributed to LULC change, which is an additional and important climate forcing in addition to greenhouse gas radiative forcing in High Plains region.

  17. Wealth reallocation and sustainability under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenichel, Eli P.; Levin, Simon A.; McCay, Bonnie; St. Martin, Kevin; Abbott, Joshua K.; Pinsky, Malin L.

    2016-03-01

    Climate change is often described as the greatest environmental challenge of our time. In addition, a changing climate can reallocate natural capital, change the value of all forms of capital and lead to mass redistribution of wealth. Here we explain how the inclusive wealth framework provides a means to measure shifts in the amounts and distribution of wealth induced by climate change. Biophysical effects on prices, pre-existing institutions and socio-ecological changes related to shifts in climate cause wealth to change in ways not correlated with biophysical changes. This implies that sustainable development in the face of climate change requires a coherent approach that integrates biophysical and social measurement. Inclusive wealth provides a measure that indicates sustainability and has the added benefit of providing an organizational framework for integrating the multiple disciplines studying global change.

  18. Cumulative effects of rapid climate and land-use changes on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, D. A.; Leibman, M. O.; Forbes, B. C.; Epstein, H. E.

    2008-12-01

    Our principal goal is to develop better, more far-looking tools to predict the cumulative effects of resource development, climate-change, and traditional land use. Here we use remote sensing, climate-change analyses, socio-economic analyses, and vegetation-change models to examine the cumulative effects of climate change, gas development, and reindeer herding on the Yamal Peninsula in northwest Siberia as part of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI). We find: 1. Direct (planned) impacts of industrial activities on the Yamal Peninsula are currently local and limited in extent, but this is changing rapidly as extensive gas fields are developed and land and sea transportation corridors are developed to get the gas to market. Indirect impacts of the development at Bovanenkovo, the largest gas field, exceed the direct impacts by a factor of three, and the total area of influence of the development on the reindeer pasturelands (e.g., area where migration routes and access to pasturelands is affected) exceeds the direct impacts by a factor of about 40. 2. The trend in land-surface temperatures has co-varied with the trend in sea-ice. Low sea ice in the preceding December-March period is correlated to warmer land temperature the following summer. The sea- ice trends in the Kara Sea-Yamal region are tied to variation in the North Atlantic Oscillation index. 4. Only a small greening response to warming has been detected on the Yamal in comparison with some other areas in the Arctic (e.g. Northern Alaska). The actual effects of climate-change on vegetation are currently hard to document at the ground level because of lack of baseline and long-term ground observations and difficulty of excluding reindeer in these studies. 5. There is high potential for extensive landscape effects due to unstable sandy soils, and extremely ice-rich permafrost near the surface on slopes. 6. Two different vegetation modeling approaches are being used to predict

  19. Climate Change Mitigation A Balanced Approach to Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a fresh and innovative perspective on climate change policy. By emphasizing the multiple facets of climate policy, from mitigation to adaptation, from technological innovation and diffusion to governance issues, it contains a comprehensive overview of the economic and policy dimensions of the climate problem. The keyword of the book is balance. The book clarifies that climate change cannot be controlled by sacrificing economic growth and many other urgent global issues. At the same time, action to control climate change cannot be delayed, even though gradually implemented. Therefore, on the one hand climate policy becomes pervasive and affects all dimensions of international policy. On the other hand, climate policy cannot be too ambitious: a balanced approach between mitigation and adaptation, between economic growth and resource management, between short term development efforts and long term innovation investments, should be adopted. I recommend its reading. Carlo Carraro, President, Ca�...

  20. Potential effects of climate change on the growth of fishes from different thermal guilds in Lakes Michigan and Huron

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kao, Yu-Chun; Madenjian, Charles P.; Bunnell, David B.; Lofgren, Brent M.; Perroud, Marjorie

    2015-01-01

    We used a bioenergetics modeling approach to investigate potential effects of climate change on the growth of two economically important native fishes: yellow perch (Perca flavescens), a cool-water fish, and lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis), a cold-water fish, in deep and oligotrophic Lakes Michigan and Huron. For assessing potential changes in fish growth, we contrasted simulated fish growth in the projected future climate regime during the period 2043-2070 under different prey availability scenarios with the simulated growth during the baseline (historical reference) period 1964-1993. Results showed that effects of climate change on the growth of these two fishes are jointly controlled by behavioral thermoregulation and prey availability. With the ability of behavioral thermoregulation, temperatures experienced by yellow perch in the projected future climate regime increased more than those experienced by lake whitefish. Thus simulated future growth decreased more for yellow perch than for lake whitefish under scenarios where prey availability remains constant into the future. Under high prey availability scenarios, simulated future growth of these two fishes both increased but yellow perch could not maintain the baseline efficiency of converting prey consumption into body weight. We contended that thermal guild should not be the only factor used to predict effects of climate change on the growth of a fish, and that ecosystem responses to climate change should be also taken into account.

  1. Effects of changing climate on reference crop evapotranspiration over 1961-2013 in Xinjiang, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Ning; Li, Yi; Sun, Changfeng

    2016-10-01

    To know the importance of different climate variables on reference crop evapotranspiration (ET o), a step-by-step sensitivity analysis of ET o to single, two, and multi-climate variables (C) was conducted. ET o in north, south, and entire Xinjiang Province, China, over 1961-2013 was estimated using the Penman-Monteith equation. Trends in the involved six Cs (i.e., minimum temperature—T min, average temperature—T ave, maximum temperature—T max, wind speed at 2 m—U 2, sunshine hour—n, and relative humidity—RH) were detected by the modified Mann-Kendall test. Nineteen scenarios of changed Cs were preset to obtain recalculated ET o values considering the actual trend in each C and the Pearson's correlation relation