WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate change effects

  1. Global climate change : greenhouse effect

    OpenAIRE

    Attard, David

    1992-01-01

    One of the main problems caused by climate change is the greenhouse effect. Human activities emit so-called greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide which is produced through fossil fuel burning. These gases absorb the earth‘s radiation, forcing the earth‘s temperature, like that of in greenhouse, to rise. Global warming would lead to a rise in the global mean sea-level due to thermal expansion of the waters, and glaciers will melt at a fast rate, as will the Greenland ice...

  2. Research on climate effects. Effects of climate changes. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global changes affecting the earth are at the forefront of public interest, possibly caused by climate alterations amongst other things. The public expects appropriate measures from politics to successfully adapt to unavoidable climate changes. As well as an investigation into the causes of climatic changes and the corollaries between the different scientific phenomena, the effects on the economy and society must also be examined. The Federal Minister for Research and Technology aims to make a valuable German contribution to international Global Change Research with the focal point ''Effects of Climate Changes on the Ecological and Civil System''. The aim of the workshop was to give an outline of current scientific knowledge, sketch out research requirements and give recommendations on the focal point with regard to the BMFT. (orig.)

  3. Health Effects of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... or insects can increase. Disease vectors such as mosquitoes, ticks, and flies may occur in greater numbers over longer periods during the year, and expand the locations in which they thrive. Climate change also affects air movement and quality by increasing ...

  4. Effect of Climate Change on Air Quality

    OpenAIRE

    Jacob, Daniel J.; Winner, Darrel A.

    2009-01-01

    Air quality is strongly dependent on weather and is therefore sensitive to climate change. Recent studies have provided estimates of this climate effect through correlations of air quality with meteorological variables, perturbation analyses in chemical transport models (CTMs), and CTM simulations driven by general circulation model (GCM) simulations of 21st-century climate change. We review these different approaches and their results. The future climate is expected to be more stagnant, due ...

  5. Creating Effective Dialogue Around Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiehl, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    Communicating climate change to people from diverse sectors of society has proven to be difficult in the United States. It is widely recognized that difficulties arise from a number of sources, including: basic science understanding, the psychologically affect laden content surrounding climate change, and the diversity of value systems that exist in our society. I explore ways of working with the affect that arises around climate change and describe specific methods to work with the resistance often encountered when communicating this important issue. The techniques I describe are rooted in psychology and group process and provide means for creating more effective narratives to break through the barriers to communicating climate change science. Examples are given from personal experiences in presenting climate change to diverse groups.

  6. Undergraduate Students As Effective Climate Change Communicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharif, H. O.; Joseph, J.; Mullendore, G. L.

    2014-12-01

    The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA), San Antonio College (SAC), and the University of North Dakota (UND) have partnered with NASA to provide underrepresented undergraduates from UTSA, SAC, and other community colleges climate-related research and education experiences through the Climate Change Communication: Engineer, Environmental science, and Education (C3E3) project. The program aims to develop a robust response to climate change by providing K-16 climate change education; enhance the effectiveness of K-16 education particularly in engineering and other STEM disciplines by use of new instructional technologies; increase the enrollment in engineering programs and the number of engineering degrees awarded by showing engineering's usefulness in relation to the much-discussed contemporary issue of climate change; increase persistence in STEM degrees by providing student research opportunities; and increase the ethnic diversity of those receiving engineering degrees and help ensure an ethnically diverse response to climate change. Students participated in the second summer internship funded by the project. The program is in its third year. More than 75 students participated in a guided research experiences aligned with NASA Science Plan objectives for climate and Earth system science and the educational objectives of the three institutions. The students went through training in modern media technology (webcasts), and in using this technology to communicate the information on climate change to others, especially high school students, culminating in production of webcasts on investigating the aspects of climate change using NASA data. Content developed is leveraged by NASA Earth observation data and NASA Earth system models and tools. Three Colleges were involved in the program: Engineering, Education, and Science.

  7. Effects of climate change on croplands

    Science.gov (United States)

    This talk will describe likely changes in temperature and precipitation expected in the northwestern US with global climate change, and their potential impacts on Oregon croplands. The focus will be on the effects of temperature and carbon dioxide on crop productivity, weed cont...

  8. Mental health effects of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanta Kumar Padhy

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We all know that 2014 has been declared as the hottest year globally by the Meteorological department of United States of America. Climate change is a global challenge which is likely to affect the mankind in substantial ways. Not only climate change is expected to affect physical health, it is also likely to affect mental health. Increasing ambient temperatures is likely to increase rates of aggression and violent suicides, while prolonged droughts due to climate change can lead to more number of farmer suicides. Droughts otherwise can lead to impaired mental health and stress. Increased frequency of disasters with climate change can lead to posttraumatic stress disorder, adjustment disorder, and depression. Changes in climate and global warming may require population to migrate, which can lead to acculturation stress. It can also lead to increased rates of physical illnesses, which secondarily would be associated with psychological distress. The possible effects of mitigation measures on mental health are also discussed. The paper concludes with a discussion of what can and should be done to tackle the expected mental health issues consequent to climate change.

  9. Effects of climate changes on skin diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balato, Nicola; Megna, Matteo; Ayala, Fabio; Balato, Anna; Napolitano, Maddalena; Patruno, Cataldo

    2014-02-01

    Global climate is changing at an extraordinary rate. Climate change (CC) can be caused by several factors including variations in solar radiation, oceanic processes, and also human activities. The degree of this change and its impact on ecological, social, and economical systems have become important matters of debate worldwide, representing CC as one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. Moreover, studies based on observations and predictive models show how CC could affect human health. On the other hand, only a few studies focus on how this change may affect human skin. However, the skin is the most exposed organ to environment; therefore, it is not surprising that cutaneous diseases are inclined to have a high sensitivity to climate. The current review focuses on the effects of CC on skin diseases showing the numerous factors that are contributing to modify the incidence, clinical pattern and natural course of some dermatoses. PMID:24404995

  10. Effects of climate change on US agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The USA are a major producer of food and fiber products in the world. The US agriculture represents more than 25% of the world trades of wheat, corn, soy and cotton. The cultivated surfaces and the pasture lands represent 210 million Ha (17% of the US territory) and 300 million Ha (26% of the US territory), respectively. The agricultural production represents less than 2% of the US GDP, put the agriculture products make about 5% of the US exports. The climate change may have some impacts on the overall agriculture industry, from the plant growth to the conditions of competition on international markets. In 2001, the US global change research program, published an evaluation report about the potential consequences of the climate change on the US agriculture. The conclusions of the panel of experts, based on climate, cultivation and economical models, was that the CO2 levels and climate changes of the 21. century would have no negative impact on the US agriculture. The average effects, on the contrary, would be rather positive, depending on the type of culture and on the region considered. Today, the experts have entertained lot of doubts about the 2001 forecasts: the fertilizing effect of CO2 is more and more criticized and an efficient supply of water appears as seriously compromised for many regions. Experts stress also on the lack of consideration for extreme climatic events, and for crop vermin and diseases. This document reanalyzes the conclusions of the 2001 report in the light of the works carried out more recently at the Agriculture Research Service (ARS). The proceedings of expert's interviews are attached in appendixes. (J.S.)

  11. The greenhouse effect and global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The ongoing increase in the concentration of infrared-absorbing gases in the atmosphere is already causing and will continue to cause a growing unbalance in the radiation budget of the earth, and consequent warming of the lower atmosphere and earth surface. This climate phenomenon is the manifestation of the greenhouse or blanketing effect of absorbing gases (also known as ''greenhouse gases'') in the earth atmosphere. The main chemical species responsible for the build-up of the greenhouse effect are carbon dioxide, methane and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) or freons. Despite new regulatory efforts made by governments to slow down the emission of these gases, the combined atmospheric burden could be equivalent to doubling the pre-industrial concentration of carbon dioxide (2xCO2) by the middle of next century. The global warming of the earth surface would eventually reach about 4 deg. C if the 2xCO2 concentration then was maintained constant for a long period. As it is, the transient response of climate to an increasing greenhouse effect is delayed by 50 to 100 years. For this reason, we observe now a much smaller climate warming than would occur for climate equilibrium with the present atmospheric composition, i.e. 125% the pre-industrial concentration of CO2. Impacts of this phenomenon will range from disturbances of the existing hydrological regime of the planet to rise of the global mean sea-level. A warmer atmosphere means more rain but also faster evaporation: consequences in terms of the availability of water resources are unclear at temperate and high latitudes, but an aggravation of aridity in sub-tropical latitudes is probable. Sea-level rise may reach 50 cm by 2100. In general, the rate of climate warming when the climate system starts responding to the greenhouse effect could be 0.3 deg. C per decade, far exceeding the ability of natural ecosystems to adapt effectively to the change. (author). 5 refs, 2 figs

  12. Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agricultural activities involves cultivation of crops and keeping of livestock which have great impact on environment. Although the level of agricultural production is dependent on capital input, human resources and soils climate is the overriding factor. Climate determines the types of crops that can grow in certain geographical areas while weather elements such as light, rainfall and temperatures have direct effect on physiological processes such as photosynthesis, leave expansion plant growth and development. Weather also controls the spread of fugal diseases, insect pests and weeds which affect growth. The anticipated climate change due to greenhouse gas-induced global warming is expected to alter temporal and spatial patterns of rainfall, temperature, humidity, radiation, wind etc. Increase in air and land surface temperatures could lead to increase in evapotranspiration which could alter soil moisture condition of most agricultural lands

  13. Climate Effects of Global Land Cover Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gibbard, S G; Caldeira, K; Bala, G; Phillips, T; Wickett, M

    2005-08-24

    There are two competing effects of global land cover change on climate: an albedo effect which leads to heating when changing from grass/croplands to forest, and an evapotranspiration effect which tends to produce cooling. It is not clear which effect would dominate in a global land cover change scenario. We have performed coupled land/ocean/atmosphere simulations of global land cover change using the NCAR CAM3 atmospheric general circulation model. We find that replacement of current vegetation by trees on a global basis would lead to a global annual mean warming of 1.6 C, nearly 75% of the warming produced under a doubled CO{sub 2} concentration, while global replacement by grasslands would result in a cooling of 0.4 C. These results suggest that more research is necessary before forest carbon storage should be deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming. In particular, high latitude forests probably have a net warming effect on the Earth's climate.

  14. Mental health effects of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Susanta Kumar Padhy; Sidharth Sarkar; Mahima Panigrahi; Surender Paul

    2015-01-01

    We all know that 2014 has been declared as the hottest year globally by the Meteorological department of United States of America. Climate change is a global challenge which is likely to affect the mankind in substantial ways. Not only climate change is expected to affect physical health, it is also likely to affect mental health. Increasing ambient temperatures is likely to increase rates of aggression and violent suicides, while prolonged droughts due to climate change can lead to more numb...

  15. The Economic Effects of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    TOL, Richard S.J.

    2009-01-01

    I review the literature on the economic impacts of climate change, an externality that is unprecedentedly large, complex, and uncertain. Only 14 estimates of the total damage cost of climate change have been published, a research effort that is in sharp contrast to the urgency of the public debate and the proposed expenditure on greenhouse gas emission reduction. These estimates show that climate change initially improves economic welfare. However, these benefits are sunk. Impacts would be pr...

  16. Climate Change Effects Overwintering of Insects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vukasinovic, Dragana

    Climate change is modifying winter conditions rapidly and predicting species’ reactions to global warming has been the “the holy grail” of climate sciences, especially for managed systems, like agro-ecosystems. Intuitively, increased winter temperatures should release insects from coldinduced...... of a rapid, contemporary evolution, optimal formeasuring species response under constant selection pressure, including organismal physiology.Thus, the methodological approach applied in this study, could prove a valuable tool for improving predictability of field population dynamics during climate change....

  17. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined and...... evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change and...... illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  18. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  19. Climate change effects on regions of Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report describes the major effects of climatic change being experienced in different parts of Canada, and emphasizes those that they are likely to become so severe that they may disrupt social, ecological and economic systems. The report notes that the driving force behind these impacts is change in temperature, precipitation, and in extreme weather events. The report strongly suggests that greenhouse gas emissions, particularly carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide will likely continue to increase due to human activities such as burning of fossil fuels for heating, cooling and transportation. Loss of tropical forests is also listed as a cause for increased greenhouse gases. In order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, Canada must use energy much more efficiently, use more alternative renewable energy source and substitute natural gas for coal and oil whenever possible. It was emphasized that the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol would slow down the rate of increase of the world's greenhouse gas emissions, which in turn affect atmospheric concentrations. The author states that Canada's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol is key to global success, particularly since some countries have backed away from it and some are wavering. The report outlined the following major impacts of climate change in various parts of Canada: sea ice, permafrost, forest fires, transportation, toxic contaminants, storminess, precipitation, water supply, water quality, fisheries, hydropower, agriculture and human adaptation. refs., tabs

  20. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, or ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. Climate ...

  1. Multi-factor climate change effects on insect herbivore performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scherber, Christoph; Gladbach, David J; Stevnbak, Karen;

    2013-01-01

    The impact of climate change on herbivorous insects can have far-reaching consequences for ecosystem processes. However, experiments investigating the combined effects of multiple climate change drivers on herbivorous insects are scarce. We independently manipulated three climate change drivers (CO......, nitrogen, and water content. Overall, drought was the most important factor for this insect herbivore. Our study shows that weight and survival of insect herbivores may decline under future climate. The complexity of insect herbivore responses increases with the number of combined climate change drivers....

  2. Health effects of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper identifies potential health problems that may arise from global climates changes caused by increasing green house gases and depletion in the ozone layer. The mankind is responsible for saving or destroying the environment. There are many forms which can pollute the environment like greenhouse activities. The greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane and ozone etc. cause pollutants in the environment. (A.B.)

  3. Climatic changes and effect on wild sheep habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeifer, Edwin L.; Heimer, Wayne; Roffler, Gretchen; Valdez, Raul; Gahl, Megan

    2012-01-01

    Wild sheep are sensitive to environmental change and may be an effective indicator species of climate change in arctic and high mountain ecosystems. To understand the effects of climatic changes on Dall sheep habitat, U.S. Geological Survey scientists have been studying selected areas in Alaska since 2007. The research focus is on forage quality, nutrient levels, and changes resulting from warming or cooling climate trends. Preliminary results indicate significant changes in Dall sheep diet accompanying vegetation changes and upslope retreat of glaciers.

  4. Direct and Indirect Effects of Climate Change on Amphibian Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie S. Gervasi

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available As part of an overall decline in biodiversity, populations of many organisms are declining and species are being lost at unprecedented rates around the world. This includes many populations and species of amphibians. Although numerous factors are affecting amphibian populations, we show potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibians at the individual, population and community level. Shifts in amphibian ranges are predicted. Changes in climate may affect survival, growth, reproduction and dispersal capabilities. Moreover, climate change can alter amphibian habitats including vegetation, soil, and hydrology. Climate change can influence food availability, predator-prey relationships and competitive interactions which can alter community structure. Climate change can also alter pathogen-host dynamics and greatly influence how diseases are manifested. Changes in climate can interact with other stressors such as UV-B radiation and contaminants. The interactions among all these factors are complex and are probably driving some amphibian population declines and extinctions.

  5. The effect of climate change on urban drainage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grum, M.; Jørgensen, A.T.; Johansen, R.M.;

    2006-01-01

    That we are in a period of extraordinary rates of climate change is today evident. These climate changes are likely to impact local weather conditions with direct impacts on precipitation patterns and urban drainage. In recent years several studies have focused on revealing the nature, extent and...... consequences of climate change on urban drainage and urban runoff pollution issues. This study uses predictions from a regional climate model to look at the effects of climate change on extreme precipitation events. Results are presented in terms of point rainfall extremes. The analysis involves three steps......: Firstly, hourly rainfall intensities from 16 point rain gauges are averaged to create a rain gauge equivalent intensity for a 25 X 25 km square corresponding to one grid cell in the climate model. Secondly, the differences between present and future in the climate model is used to project the hourly...

  6. Climate Change Effects on Agricultural Insect Pests in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Lindström, Leena; Lehmann, Philipp

    2015-01-01

    In this chapter we will discuss observations of climate change effects on agricultural pests in Europe, the possible mechanisms behind these observed effects and finally delve into more detail through some, relatively well studied model species (the Colorado potato beetle and the rape beetle). Direct effects of climate change on agricultural pests in Europe are difficult to dissect from all the human induced changes that have taken place in parallel with an increased mean annual temperature. ...

  7. Multi-factor climate change effects on insect herbivore performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scherber, Christoph; Gladbach, David J; Stevnbak, Karen;

    2013-01-01

    the drought treatment, and there was a three-way interaction between time, CO2, and drought. Survival was lowest when drought, warming, and elevated CO2 were combined. Effects of climate change drivers depended on other co-acting factors and were mediated by changes in plant secondary compounds, nitrogen......The impact of climate change on herbivorous insects can have far-reaching consequences for ecosystem processes. However, experiments investigating the combined effects of multiple climate change drivers on herbivorous insects are scarce. We independently manipulated three climate change drivers (CO...... suturalis Thomson), an important herbivore on heather, to ambient versus elevated drought, temperature, and CO2 (plus all combinations) for 5 weeks. Larval weight and survival were highest under ambient conditions and decreased significantly with the number of climate change drivers. Weight was lowest under...

  8. The Climate Change Effects on the Agricultural Sector of Bolivia

    OpenAIRE

    Aliaga, Javier; Aguilar, Tirza

    2009-01-01

    Bolivia as many other countries in the world, it is looking for some mechanism that allows to fight against the adverse impacts produced by climate variability. There is consensus that more adaptation and mitigation measures if we want to reduce the adverse effects produced by the climate change - in addition the vulnerability1 to these phenomena depends also on other stress factors. The aim of our research seeks to evaluate the economic impact of climate change in the agricultural sector of ...

  9. The climate change effects on the agricultural sector of Bolivia

    OpenAIRE

    Aliaga Lordemann, Javier; Aguilar, Tirza J.

    2009-01-01

    Bolivia as many other countries in the world, it is looking for some mechanism that allows to fight against the adverse impacts produced by climate variability. There is consensus that more adaptation and mitigation measures if we want to reduce the adverse effects produced by the climate change - in addition the vulnerability to these phenomena depends also on other stress factors. The aim of our research seeks to evaluate the economic impact of climate change in the agricultural sector of B...

  10. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... can be caused by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. Climate change can affect our health. It can lead to More heat-related illness ...

  11. Climate Change Effects on Agriculture: Economic Responses to Biophysical Shocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlik, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina

    2014-01-01

    Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(sup 2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

  12. The Effects of Climate Change on Harp Seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus)

    OpenAIRE

    Johnston, David W.; Bowers, Matthew T.; Ari S. Friedlaender; David M. Lavigne

    2012-01-01

    Harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus) have evolved life history strategies to exploit seasonal sea ice as a breeding platform. As such, individuals are prepared to deal with fluctuations in the quantity and quality of ice in their breeding areas. It remains unclear, however, how shifts in climate may affect seal populations. The present study assesses the effects of climate change on harp seals through three linked analyses. First, we tested the effects of short-term climate variability on yo...

  13. Climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    This paper presented indicators of climate change for British Columbia (BC) with an emphasis on the coastal region. An overview of global effects of climate change was presented, as well as details of BC's current climate change action plan. Indicators examined in the paper for the BC coastal region included long-term trends in air temperature; long-term trends in precipitation; coastal ocean temperatures; sea levels on the BC coast; and the sensitivity of the BC coast to sea level rise and erosion. Data suggested that average air temperatures have become higher in many areas, and that Springtime temperatures have become warmer over the whole province. Winters have become drier in many areas of the province. Sea surface temperature has risen over the entire coast, with the North Coast and central Strait of Georgia showing the largest increases. Deep-water temperatures have also increased in 5 inlets on the South Coast. Results suggested that the direction and spatial pattern of the climate changes reported for British Columbia are consistent with broader trends in North America and the type of changes predicted by climate models for the region. Climate change will likely result in reduced snow-pack in southern BC. An earlier spring freshet on many snow-dominated river systems is anticipated as well as glacial retreat and disappearance. Warmer temperatures in some lakes and rivers are expected, as well as the increased frequency and severity of natural disturbances such as the pine mountain beetle. Large-scale shifts in ecosystems and the loss of certain ecosystems may also occur. BC's current climate plan includes cost effective actions that address GHG emissions and support efficient infrastructure and opportunities for innovation. Management programs for forest and agricultural lands have been initiated, as well as programs to reduce emissions from government operations. Research is also being conducted to understand the impacts of climate change on

  14. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presented indicators of climate change for British Columbia (BC) with an emphasis on the coastal region. An overview of global effects of climate change was presented, as well as details of BC's current climate change action plan. Indicators examined in the paper for the BC coastal region included long-term trends in air temperature; long-term trends in precipitation; coastal ocean temperatures; sea levels on the BC coast; and the sensitivity of the BC coast to sea level rise and erosion. Data suggested that average air temperatures have become higher in many areas, and that Springtime temperatures have become warmer over the whole province. Winters have become drier in many areas of the province. Sea surface temperature has risen over the entire coast, with the North Coast and central Strait of Georgia showing the largest increases. Deep-water temperatures have also increased in 5 inlets on the South Coast. Results suggested that the direction and spatial pattern of the climate changes reported for British Columbia are consistent with broader trends in North America and the type of changes predicted by climate models for the region. Climate change will likely result in reduced snow-pack in southern BC. An earlier spring freshet on many snow-dominated river systems is anticipated as well as glacial retreat and disappearance. Warmer temperatures in some lakes and rivers are expected, as well as the increased frequency and severity of natural disturbances such as the pine mountain beetle. Large-scale shifts in ecosystems and the loss of certain ecosystems may also occur. BC's current climate plan includes cost effective actions that address GHG emissions and support efficient infrastructure and opportunities for innovation. Management programs for forest and agricultural lands have been initiated, as well as programs to reduce emissions from government operations. Research is also being conducted to understand the impacts of climate change on water

  15. The effects of climate, permafrost and fire on vegetation change in Siberia in a changing climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tchebakova, N M; Parfenova, E [V N Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Academgorodok, Krasnoyarsk, 660036 (Russian Federation); Soja, A J, E-mail: ncheby@forest.akadem.r, E-mail: Amber.J.Soja@nasa.go [National Institute of Aerospace (NIA), NASA Langley Research Center, Climate Sciences, 21 Langley Boulevard, Mail Stop 420, Hampton, VA 23681-2199 (United States)

    2009-10-15

    Observations and general circulation model projections suggest significant temperature increases in Siberia this century that are expected to have profound effects on Siberian vegetation. Potential vegetation change across Siberia was modeled, coupling our Siberian BioClimatic Model with several Hadley Centre climate change scenarios for 2020, 2050 and 2080, with explicit consideration of permafrost and fire activity. In the warmer and drier climate projected by these scenarios, Siberian forests are predicted to decrease and shift northwards and forest-steppe and steppe ecosystems are predicted to dominate over half of Siberia due to the dryer climate by 2080. Despite the large predicted increases in warming, permafrost is not predicted to thaw deep enough to sustain dark (Pinus sibirica, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga. Over eastern Siberia, larch (Larix dahurica) taiga is predicted to continue to be the dominant zonobiome because of its ability to withstand continuous permafrost. The model also predicts new temperate broadleaf forest and forest-steppe habitats by 2080. Potential fire danger evaluated with the annual number of high fire danger days (Nesterov index is 4000-10 000) is predicted to increase by 2080, especially in southern Siberia and central Yakutia. In a warming climate, fuel load accumulated due to replacement of forest by steppe together with frequent fire weather promotes high risks of large fires in southern Siberia and central Yakutia, where wild fires would create habitats for grasslands because the drier climate would no longer be suitable for forests.

  16. The effects of climate, permafrost and fire on vegetation change in Siberia in a changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Observations and general circulation model projections suggest significant temperature increases in Siberia this century that are expected to have profound effects on Siberian vegetation. Potential vegetation change across Siberia was modeled, coupling our Siberian BioClimatic Model with several Hadley Centre climate change scenarios for 2020, 2050 and 2080, with explicit consideration of permafrost and fire activity. In the warmer and drier climate projected by these scenarios, Siberian forests are predicted to decrease and shift northwards and forest-steppe and steppe ecosystems are predicted to dominate over half of Siberia due to the dryer climate by 2080. Despite the large predicted increases in warming, permafrost is not predicted to thaw deep enough to sustain dark (Pinus sibirica, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga. Over eastern Siberia, larch (Larix dahurica) taiga is predicted to continue to be the dominant zonobiome because of its ability to withstand continuous permafrost. The model also predicts new temperate broadleaf forest and forest-steppe habitats by 2080. Potential fire danger evaluated with the annual number of high fire danger days (Nesterov index is 4000-10 000) is predicted to increase by 2080, especially in southern Siberia and central Yakutia. In a warming climate, fuel load accumulated due to replacement of forest by steppe together with frequent fire weather promotes high risks of large fires in southern Siberia and central Yakutia, where wild fires would create habitats for grasslands because the drier climate would no longer be suitable for forests.

  17. Regional characteristics of climate change altering effects of afforestation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climatic effects of forest cover change have been investigated for Hungary. For the time period 2071–100 we have analyzed whether the climate change signal for summer precipitation and the probability of droughts can be reduced assuming maximal afforestation for the entire country (forests covering all vegetated areas). The biogeophysical effects of land cover change have been assessed using the results of an A1B IPCC-SRES emission scenario from REMO (regional climate model at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg). The simulation results indicate that afforestation may reduce the projected climate change through higher evapotranspiration and precipitation as well as lower surface temperature for the entire summer period. The magnitude of the feedback of the forest cover increase on precipitation differs among regions. The strongest effects are visible in the northeastern part of the country. Here, half of the projected precipitation decrease can be relieved and the total number of drought events can be reduced, assuming maximal afforestation. Afforestation brings about the smallest climatic effect in the southwestern region, in the area that shows the strongest climate change. The results can help to identify areas where forest cover increase should most effectively support the alleviation of climate change effects.

  18. Cosmic rays and space weather. Effects on global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We consider possible effects of cosmic rays and some other space factors on the Earth's climate change. It is well known that the system of internal and external factors formatting the climate is very unstable; decreasing planetary temperature leads to an increase of snow surface, and decrease of the total solar energy input into the system decreases the planetary temperature even more, etc. From this it follows that even energetically small factors may have a big influence on climate change. In our opinion, the most important of these factors are cosmic rays and cosmic dust through their influence on clouds, and thus, on climate. (orig.)

  19. Plant Respiration and Climate Change Effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plant respiration is one of the key processes in terms of an understanding of plant growth and functioning in a future climate. Short- and long-term effects of temperature and CO2 on plant respiration were investigated in a number of plant species. The experiments tested effects of either temperature and/or CO2 from the level of individual respiratory enzymes, isolated mitochondria, whole-tissue, and up to the whole canopy level. The short-term effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on plant respiration appeared to be less than suggested so far in the literature. This was true both at the tissue level and for intact mitochondria. Respiratory enzymes can, however, be affected already at low CO2. These effects did not manifest itself at the tissue level, though, due to low degrees of control on the whole respiratory process exerted by the particular enzymes. Plant respiration on the other hand was affected by long-term growth at elevated atmospheric CO2. The findings of the reduced plant respiration at the leaf level were consistent with the literature and potential causes are discussed. Short-term effects of temperature on plant respiration were demonstrated to be dependent on the actual measurement temperature. Further, it is shown that mitochondrial leaf respiration in darkness and light differ substantially in the temperature sensitivity with the former being the far most sensitive. This has implications for modelling CO2 exchange between vegetation and atmosphere as demonstrated here, since this has so far been neglected. Long-term effects of temperature resulted in respiratory acclimation in a number of species. Respiratory acclimation appeared not to occur to any one single type of growth temperature. The implications of this finding in combination with the timing of acclimation are discussed for modelling respiratory CO2 release. (au)

  20. Plant Respiration and Climate Change Effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruhn, D.

    2002-04-01

    Plant respiration is one of the key processes in terms of an understanding of plant growth and functioning in a future climate. Short- and long-term effects of temperature and CO{sub 2} on plant respiration were investigated in a number of plant species. The experiments tested effects of either temperature and/or CO{sub 2} from the level of individual respiratory enzymes, isolated mitochondria, whole-tissue, and up to the whole canopy level. The short-term effects of elevated atmospheric CO{sub 2} on plant respiration appeared to be less than suggested so far in the literature. This was true both at the tissue level and for intact mitochondria. Respiratory enzymes can, however, be affected already at low CO{sub 2}. These effects did not manifest itself at the tissue level, though, due to low degrees of control on the whole respiratory process exerted by the particular enzymes. Plant respiration on the other hand was affected by long-term growth at elevated atmospheric CO{sub 2}. The findings of the reduced plant respiration at the leaf level were consistent with the literature and potential causes are discussed. Short-term effects of temperature on plant respiration were demonstrated to be dependent on the actual measurement temperature. Further, it is shown that mitochondrial leaf respiration in darkness and light differ substantially in the temperature sensitivity with the former being the far most sensitive. This has implications for modelling CO{sub 2} exchange between vegetation and atmosphere as demonstrated here, since this has so far been neglected. Long-term effects of temperature resulted in respiratory acclimation in a number of species. Respiratory acclimation appeared not to occur to any one single type of growth temperature. The implications of this finding in combination with the timing of acclimation are discussed for modelling respiratory CO{sub 2} release. (au)

  1. Climate change effects on forests: A critical review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loehle, C. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); LeBlanc, D. [Ball State Univ., Muncie, IN (United States). Dept. of Biology

    1996-02-01

    While current projections of future climate change associated with increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases have a high degree of uncertainty, the potential effects of climate change on forests are of increasing concern. A number of studies based on forest simulation models predict substantial temperatures associated with increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. However, the structure of these computer models may cause them to overemphasize the role of climate in controlling tree growth and mortality. We propose that forest simulation models be reformulated with more realistic representations of growth responses to temperature, moisture, mortality, and dispersal. We believe that only when these models more accurately reflect the physiological bases of the responses of tree species to climate variables can they be used to simulate responses of forests to rapid changes in climate. We argue that direct forest responses to climate change projected by such a reformulated model may be less traumatic and more gradual than those projected by current models. However, the indirect effects of climate change on forests, mediated by alterations of disturbance regimes or the actions of pests and pathogens, may accelerate climate-induced change in forests, and they deserve further study and inclusion within forest simulation models.

  2. Essays on the Politics and Political Effects of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Obradovich, Nicholas Anthony

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on the politics and potential effects of climate change on political systems. I examine aspects of three broad questions. First, how might future climatic stressors alter the stability of political systems? Numerous studies investigate this question through the lens of conflict. Yet most political change does not arise through violent upheaval. In democratic nations at least, most political change arises through regular elections. In my first chapter, I examine the p...

  3. Flooding of tunnels: Quantifying climate change effects on infrastructure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huibregtse, J.N.; Napoles, O.M.; Dewit, M.S.

    2013-01-01

    To develop climate proof road infrastructure it is of importance to understand the quantitative effects of expected climate change on the performance of individual components, such as tunnels and road sections, and their contributions to the performance of the overall road network.A full understandi

  4. Effects of historical land cover changes on climate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI ZhengGuo; YAN XiaoDong; YIN ChongHua; WANG ZhaoMin

    2007-01-01

    In order to explore the influence of anthropogenic land use on the climate system during the last millennium, a set of experiments is performed with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity--the McGill Paleoclimate Model (MPM-2). The present paper mainly focuses on biogeophysical effects of historical land cover changes. A dynamic scenario of deforestation is described based on changes in cropland fraction (RF99). The model simulates a decrease in global mean annual temperature in the range of 0.09-0.16℃, especially 0.14-0.22℃ in Northern Hemisphere during the last 300 years. The responses of climate system to GHGs concentration changes are also calculated for comparisons. Now, afforestation is becoming an important choice for the enhancement of terrestrial carbon sequestration and adjustment of regional climate. The results indicate that biogeophysical effects of land cover changes cannot be neglected in the assessments of climate change.

  5. Effects of climate variability and climate change on crop production in southern Mali

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Traore, B.; Corbeels, M.; Wijk, van M.T.; Rufino, M.C.; Giller, K.E.

    2013-01-01

    In West Africa predictions of future changes in climate and especially rainfall are highly uncertain, and up to now no long-term analyses are available of the effects of climate on crop production. This study analyses long-term trends in climate variability at N'Tarla and Sikasso in southern Mali us

  6. Climate Change, Catastrophic Environmental Effects and Overlapping Generations

    OpenAIRE

    Moretto Michele; Tamborini Roberto

    1999-01-01

    In this paper the climate change effect is an unforeseen earth temperature level above which a negative externality on technology and hence on society's welfare is exerted. We use a dynamic overlapping generations model to develop a positive analysis of the growth path of an economy with the negative temperature spillover leading to a structural breakdown in capital productivity. Two scenarios for the impact of climate change on intergenerational equity are analyzed: the first is consistent w...

  7. Modelling the effects of climate change on weed population dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    García de León Hernández, David

    2014-01-01

    As the human population continues to increase –it will have surpassed 9 billion people by 2050- food supply must rise in order to sustain people. Climate change represents a threat in the provision of sufficient, secure and nutritious nourishment for everyone. Possible consequences of climate change include a reduction in global agro-ecosystem production, with Spain as one of the most affected countries in Europe. Accordingly, little is known about the possible effects on weed ...

  8. Direct and Indirect Effects of Climate Change on Amphibian Populations

    OpenAIRE

    Stephanie S. Gervasi; Searle, Catherine L.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Betsy A. Bancroft; Walls, Susan C.; Blaustein, Andrew R

    2010-01-01

    As part of an overall decline in biodiversity, populations of many organisms are declining and species are being lost at unprecedented rates around the world. This includes many populations and species of amphibians. Although numerous factors are affecting amphibian populations, we show potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibians at the individual, population and community level. Shifts in amphibian ranges are predicted. Changes in climate may affect survival, growth...

  9. Simulation of landscape disturbances and the effect of climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this research is to understand how changes in climate may affect the structure of landscapes that are subject to periodic disturbances. A general model useful for examining the linkage between climatic change and landscape change has been developed. The model makes use of synoptic climatic data, a geographical information system (GRASS), field data on the location of disturbance patches, simulation code written in the SIMSCRIPT language, and a set of landscape structure analysis programs written specifically for this research project. A simplified version of the model, lacking the climatic driver, has been used to analyze how changes in disturbance regimes (in this case settlement and fire suppression) affect landscape change. Landscape change lagged in its response to changes in the disturbance regime, but the lags differed depending upon the character of the change and the particular measure considered. The model will now be modified for use in a specific setting to analyze the effects of changes in climate on the structure of flood-disturbed patches along the Animas River, Colorado

  10. Simulation of landscape disturbances and the effect of climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baker, W.L.

    1993-01-29

    The purpose of this research is to understand how changes in climate may affect the structure of landscapes that are subject to periodic disturbances. A general model useful for examining the linkage between climatic change and landscape change has been developed. The model makes use of synoptic climatic data, a geographical information system (GRASS), field data on the location of disturbance patches, simulation code written in the SIMSCRIPT language, and a set of landscape structure analysis programs written specifically for this research project. A simplified version of the model, lacking the climatic driver, has been used to analyze how changes in disturbance regimes (in this case settlement and fire suppression) affect landscape change. Landscape change lagged in its response to changes in the disturbance regime, but the lags differed depending upon the character of the change and the particular measure considered. The model will now be modified for use in a specific setting to analyze the effects of changes in climate on the structure of flood-disturbed patches along the Animas River, Colorado.

  11. Climate change and wildlife health: direct and indirect effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofmeister, Erik; Rogall, Gail Moede; eWsenberg, Kathy; Abbott, Rachel; Work, Thierry; Schuler, Krysten; Sleeman, Jonathan; Winton, James

    2010-01-01

    Climate change will have significant effects on the health of wildlife, domestic animals, and humans, according to scientists. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects that unprecedented rates of climate change will result in increasing average global temperatures; rising sea levels; changing global precipitation patterns, including increasing amounts and variability; and increasing midcontinental summer drought (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007). Increasing temperatures, combined with changes in rainfall and humidity, may have significant impacts on wildlife, domestic animal, and human health and diseases. When combined with expanding human populations, these changes could increase demand on limited water resources, lead to more habitat destruction, and provide yet more opportunities for infectious diseases to cross from one species to another. Awareness has been growing in recent years about zoonotic diseases— that is, diseases that are transmissible between animals and humans, such as Lyme disease and West Nile virus. The rise of such diseases results from closer relationships among wildlife, domestic animals, and people, allowing more contact with diseased animals, organisms that carry and transmit a disease from one animal to another (vectors), and people. Disease vectors include insects, such as mosquitoes, and arachnids, such as ticks. Thus, it is impossible to separate the effects of global warming on wildlife from its effects on the health of domestic animals or people. Climate change, habitat destruction and urbanization, the introduction of exotic and invasive species, and pollution—all affect ecosystem and human health. Climate change can also be viewed within the context of other physical and climate cycles, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (El Niño), the North Atlantic Oscillation, and cycles in solar radiation that have profound effects on the Earth’s climate. The effects of climate change on wildlife

  12. Effect of climate change on temperate forest ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Brolsma, R.J.

    2010-01-01

    In temperate climates groundwater can have a strong effect on vegetation, because it can influence the spatio-temporal distribution of soil moisture and therefore water and oxygen stress of vegetation. Current IPCC climate projections based on CO2 emission scenarios show a global temperature rise and change in precipitation regime, which will affect hydrological and vegetation systems. This thesis provides a quantitative framework for studying eco-hydrology in groundwater influenced temperate...

  13. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathwa

  14. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on contributions on 120 French and foreign scientists representing different disciplines (mathematics, physics, mechanics, chemistry, biology, medicine, and so on), this report proposes an overview of the scientific knowledge and debate about climate change. It discusses the various indicators of climate evolution (temperatures, ice surfaces, sea level, biological indicators) and the various factors which may contribute to climate evolution (greenhouse gases, solar radiation). It also comments climate evolutions in the past as they can be investigated through some geological, thermal or geochemical indicators. Then, the authors describe and discuss the various climate mechanisms: solar activity, oceans, ice caps, greenhouse gases. In a third part, the authors discuss the different types of climate models which differ by the way they describe processes, and the current validation process for these models

  15. Interactive Effects of Nitrogen and Climate Change on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, E. M.; Bowman, W. D.; Clark, C. M.; Compton, J. E.; Pardo, L. H.; Soong, J.

    2011-12-01

    example, in certain arid ecosystems of southern California, elevated nitrogen has promoted invasions of annual non-native grasses. At the same time, a period of above-normal precipitation years has exacerbated the grass invasions. Increased grass cover has altered the hydrologic cycle of these areas and increased fire risk, ultimately leading to conversion of the ecosystem from diverse shrublands to less diverse grasslands. In addition to empirical studies, modeling can be used to simulate climate change and nitrogen interactions. The ForSAFE-VEG model, for example, has been used to examine climate change and nitrogen interactions in Rocky Mountain alpine vegetation communities. Results from both empirical studies and modeling indicate that nitrogen and climate change interact to drive losses in biodiversity greater than those caused by either stressor alone. Reducing inputs of anthropogenic reactive nitrogen may be an effective mitigation strategy for protecting biodiversity in the face of climate change.

  16. Climate change and health effects in Northwest Alaska

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Brubaker

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available This article provides examples of adverse health effects, including weather-related injury, food insecurity, mental health issues, and water infrastructure damage, and the responses to these effects that are currently being applied in two Northwest Alaska communities.In Northwest Alaska, warming is resulting in a broad range of unusual weather and environmental conditions, including delayed freeze-up, earlier breakup, storm surge, coastal erosion, and thawing permafrost. These are just some of the climate impacts that are driving concerns about weather-related injury, the spread of disease, mental health issues, infrastructure damage, and food and water security. Local leaders are challenged to identify appropriate adaptation strategies to address climate impacts and related health effects.The tribal health system is combining local observations, traditional knowledge, and western science to perform community-specific climate change health impact assessments. Local leaders are applying this information to develop adaptation responses.The Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium will describe relationships between climate impacts and health effects and provide examples of community-scaled adaptation actions currently being applied in Northwest Alaska.Climate change is increasing vulnerability to injury, disease, mental stress, food insecurity, and water insecurity. Northwest communities are applying adaptation approaches that are both specific and appropriate.The health impact assessment process is effective in raising awareness, encouraging discussion, engaging partners, and implementing adaptation planning. With community-specific information, local leaders are applying health protective adaptation measures.

  17. The Effect of Landscape Architecture on Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazanin Nafici

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Permanent environmental influences such as sun, fog, acid rain can destroy structures, buildings and the environment. Improving the quality of urban environment with utilizing green roof and green facades is illustrated for several years and installing them can offer multiple benefits. A detailed integrated presentation of green roof and green facade systems is provided in this paper. The aim of the research is to illustrate the effect of green façade and green roofs and generally greenery structure on the climate changes. The author tries to find a solution for the climate changes and environmental issues and resolving it by above- mentioned landscape architecture methods.

  18. Designing urban parks that ameliorate the effects of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brown, R.D.; Vanos, J.; Kenny, N.; Lenzholzer, S.

    2015-01-01

    Many inhabitants of cities throughout the world suffer from health problems and discomfort that are caused by overheating of urban areas, and there is compelling evidence that these problems will be exacerbated by global climate change. Most cities are not designed to ameliorate these effects althou

  19. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In spite of man's remarkable advances in technology, ultimately he is still dependent on the Earth's climatic system for food and fresh water. The recent occurrences in certain regions of the world of climatic extremes such as excessive rain or droughts and unseasonably high or low temperatures have led to speculation that a major climatic change is occurring on a global scale. Some point to the recent drop in temperatures in the northern hemisphere as an indication that the Earth is entering a new ice age. Others see a global warming trend that may be due to a build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. An authoritative report on the subject has been prepared by a World Meteorological Organization Panel of Experts on Climatic Change. Excerpts from the report are given. (author)

  20. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book proposes both a scientific and societal approach of a phenomenon which is today the object of lot of debates. Climates perception is illustrated with examples taken in various modern civilizations and in the history of mankind. The Sahara example illustrates the notion of climate evolution. The last chapters are devoted to forecasting and scenarios for the future, taking into account the share of uncertainty. The controversies generated by these forecasts and the Kyoto protocol stakes demonstrate the tight links between the scientific, economical and political aspects in climatic change debates. (J.S.)

  1. Overview of different aspects of climate change effects on soils.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qafoku, Nikolla

    2014-08-01

    Climate change [i.e., high atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations (≥400 ppm); increasing air temperatures (2-4°C or greater); significant and/or abrupt changes in daily, seasonal, and inter-annual temperature; changes in the wet/dry cycles; intensive rainfall and/or heavy storms; extended periods of drought; extreme frost; heat waves and increased fire frequency] is and will significantly affect soil properties and fertility, water resources, food quantity and quality, and environmental quality. Biotic processes that consume atmospheric CO2 and create organic carbon (C) that is either reprocessed to CO2 or stored in soils, are the subject of active current investigations with great concern over the influence of climate change. In addition, abiotic C cycling and its influence on the inorganic C pool in soils is a fundamental global process in which acidic atmospheric CO2 participates in the weathering of carbonate and silicate minerals, ultimately delivering bicarbonate and Ca2+ or other cations that precipitate in the form of carbonates in soils or are transported to the rivers, lakes, and oceans. Soil responses to climate change will be complex, and there are many uncertainties and unresolved issues. The objective of the review is to initiate and further stimulate a discussion about some important and challenging aspects of climate-change effects on soils, such as accelerated weathering of soil minerals and resulting C and elemental fluxes in and out of soils, soil/geo-engineering methods used to increase C sequestration in soils, soil organic matter (SOM) protection, transformation and mineralization, and SOM temperature sensitivity. This review reports recent discoveries and identifies key research needs required to understand the effects of climate change on soils.

  2. Effects of climate change on landslide hazard in Europe (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadim, F.; Solheim, A.

    2009-12-01

    Landslides represent a major threat to human life, property and constructed facilities, infrastructure and natural environment in most mountainous and hilly regions of the world. As a consequence of climatic changes and potential global warming, an increase of landslide activity is expected in some parts of the world in the future. This will be due to increased extreme rainfall events, changes of hydrological cycles, meteorological events followed by sea storms causing coastal erosion and melting of snow and of frozen soils in the high mountains. During the past century, Europe experienced many fatalities and significant economic losses due to landslides. Since in many parts of Europe landslides are the most serious natural hazard, several recent European research projects are looking into the effects of climate change on the risk associated with landslides. Examples are the recently initiated SafeLand project, which looks into this problem across the continent, and GeoExtreme, which focused on Norway. The ongoing project SafeLand (www.safeland-fp7.eu) is a large, integrating project financed by the European Commission. It involves close to 30 organizations from 13 countries in Europe, and it looks into the effects of global change (mainly changes in demography and climate change) on the pattern of landslide risk in Europe. The SafeLand objectives are to (1) provide policy-makers, public administrators, researchers, scientists, educators and other stakeholders with improved harmonized framework and methodology for the assessment and quantification of landslide risk in Europe's regions; (2) evaluate the changes in risk pattern caused by climate change, human activity and policy changes; and (3) provide guidelines for choosing the most appropriate risk management strategies, including risk mitigation and prevention measures. To assess the changes in the landslide risk pattern in Norway over the next 50 years, the four-year integrated research project GeoExtreme (www

  3. Climate change effects on design floods for dams in Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Since 1990 new guidelines for hydrological design of the Swedish hydropower system are being implemented. The technique is based on a critical combination of extreme precipitation, extreme snowmelt and an operation strategy for multi-reservoir systems. Hydrological modeling is a central component, as is a prescribed design precipitation sequence. At the time when the guidelines were developed it was not possible to account for possible consequences of a changing climate. Sensitivity analyses using four different regional climate change scenarios (2071-2100) has been carried out for four important Swedish dams and also for the largest lake in Sweden, Lake Vanern. The research project was financed by Elforsk and the Swedish Dam Safety Authority (Svenska Kraftnat) and it was reported in 2006/2007. Some summarizing conclusions are: Changes in the mean climate results in smaller design snow pack according to all scenarios. This component acts towards decreased design inflows and water levels at most locations. Extreme precipitation can be expected to increase at most places in Sweden according to the climate scenarios. This component acts towards increased design inflows and water levels at most locations. Depending on how changes in the mean climate and in the extremes interact, the change in design inflows and water levels can be either an increase or a decrease. The effect depends both on the location of the dam and on the choice of climate scenario. This calls for site-specific analysis for each dam. In 2007 the second edition of the guidelines for hydrological design was issued in which also the question of climate change have been addressed. The first sensitivity analyses are now being extended within a new 2-year research project also funded jointly by Elforsk and the Swedish Dam Safety Authority (Svenska Kraftnat). The aim is to increase the number of regional climate scenarios and the number of high hazard dams in the analysis, but also to move the scenarios

  4. The effects of changing solar activity on climate: contributions from palaeoclimatological studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Engels; B. van Geel

    2012-01-01

    Natural climate change currently acts in concert with human-induced changes in the climate system. To disentangle the natural variability in the climate system and the human-induced effects on the global climate, a critical analysis of climate change in the past may offer a better understanding of t

  5. Effective Strategies for Talking about Climate Change in the Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busch, K. C.; Osborne, Jonathan

    2014-01-01

    Teaching about climate science presents some unique challenges. Unlike many other science topics, mitigation and adaptation to climate change will require students to take action. This article outlines five major challenges to communicating about climate change in the classroom, drawing on research in environmental psychology: scepticism,…

  6. Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nelson, G.C.; Valin, H.; Sands, R.D.; Havlik, P.; Ahammad, H.; Deryng, D.; Elliott, J.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Heyhoe, E.; Kyle, P.; Lampe, von M.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Croz, d' D.M.; Meijl, van H.; Mensbrugghe, van der D.; Muller, C.; Popp, A.; Robertson, R.; Robinson, S.; Schmid, E.; Schmitz, C.; Tabeau, A.A.; Willenbockel, D.

    2014-01-01

    Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and

  7. Climate Change and ENSO Effects on Southeastern US Climate Patterns and Maize Yield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mourtzinis, Spyridon; Ortiz, Brenda V.; Damianidis, Damianos

    2016-07-01

    Climate change has a strong influence on weather patterns and significantly affects crop yields globally. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a strong influence on the U.S. climate and is related to agricultural production variability. ENSO effects are location-specific and in southeastern U.S. strongly connect with climate variability. When combined with climate change, the effects on growing season climate patterns and crop yields might be greater than expected. In our study, historical monthly precipitation and temperature data were coupled with non-irrigated maize yield data (33–43 years depending on the location) to show a potential yield suppression of ~15% for one °C increase in southeastern U.S. growing season maximum temperature. Yield suppression ranged between ‑25 and ‑2% among locations suppressing the southeastern U.S. average yield trend since 1981 by 17 kg ha‑1year‑1 (~25%), mainly due to year-to-year June temperature anomalies. Yields varied among ENSO phases from 1971–2013, with greater yields observed during El Niño phase. During La Niña years, maximum June temperatures were higher than Neutral and El Niño, whereas June precipitation was lower than El Niño years. Our data highlight the importance of developing location-specific adaptation strategies quantifying both, climate change and ENSO effects on month-specific growing season climate conditions.

  8. Effects of Projected Transient Changes in Climate on Tennessee Forests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dale, Virginia H [ORNL; Tharp, M Lynn [ORNL; Lannom, Karen O. [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Hodges, Donald G. [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK)

    2010-01-01

    This study examines transient effects of projected climate change on the structure and species composition of forests in Tennessee. The climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2080 were provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) that simulate the range of potential climate conditions for the state. The precipitation and temperature projections from the three GCMs for 2030 and 2080 were related to changes in the ecoregions by using the monthly record of temperature and precipitation from 1980 to 1997 for each 1 km cell across the state as aggregated into the five ecological provinces. Temperatures are projected to increase in all ecological provinces in all months for all three GCMs for both 2030 and 2080. Precipitation patterns are more complex with one model projecting wetter summers and two models projecting drier summers. The forest ecosystem model LINKAGES was used to simulate conditions in forest stands for the five ecological provinces of Tennessee from 1989 to 2300. These model runs suggest there will be a change in tree diversity and species composition in all ecological provinces with the greatest changes occurring in the Southern Mixed Forest province. Most projections show a decline in total tree biomass followed by recovery as species replacement occurs in stands. The changes in forest biomass and composition, as simulated in this study, are likely to have implications on forest economy, tourism, understory conditions, wildlife habitat, mast provisioning, and other services provided by forest systems.

  9. The effects of changing solar activity on climate: contributions from palaeoclimatological studies

    OpenAIRE

    Engels Stefan; van Geel Bas

    2012-01-01

    Natural climate change currently acts in concert with human-induced changes in the climate system. To disentangle the natural variability in the climate system and the human-induced effects on the global climate, a critical analysis of climate change in the past may offer a better understanding of the processes that drive the global climate system. In this review paper, we present palaeoclimatological evidence for the past influence of solar variability on Earth’s climate, highlighting the ef...

  10. Health Effects of Climate Change (Environmental Health Student Portal)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... may increase the risk of diseases spread by mosquitoes and other insects. Learn More Explore the links below to learn more about how climate change can affect your health. Read About It Climate ...

  11. Effect of climatic changes on the prevalence of zoonotic diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neelam Sachan and V.P.Singh

    Full Text Available Combustion of fossil fuels and human activities has led to sharp increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. These climate changes have tremendous effect on prevalence of zoonotic diseases. The changes in climate may increase the insect vectors, prolong transmission cycles or increase the importation of vectors or animal reservoirs. It may also have an adverse effect on biodiversity, distribution of animals and microflora which may lead to emergence of zoonotic disease outbreaks. A historical perspective on major vector-borne diseases such as arboviral encephalitides, dengue fever and Rift Valley fever, Lyme disease, West Nile virus, malaria, plague, hantavirus pulmonary syndrome and dengue fever have been shown to have a distinct seasonal pattern and in some instances their frequency has been shown to be weather sensitive. Because of the sensitivities of the vectors and animal hosts of these diseases to climactic factors, climate change-driven ecological changes such as variations in rainfall and temperature could significantly alter the range, seasonality and human incidence of many zoonotic and vector-borne diseases. The evolution of emerging zoonotic diseases globally during the period 1996 to 2007 was Ebola haemorrhagic fever, Rift Valley fever, avian influenza H5N1, plague and Nipah virus. Whereas, bird flu and swine flu like diseases are still creating havoc for human and animal health worldwide. It is a today’s and tomorrow’s demand that interdisciplinary communication between health professionals, veterinarians, environmental scientists, ecologists, geographers and economists seeking to understand climate change will be key to protecting people in India and worldwide against these threats. Rigorous cross-disciplinary studies using a variety of methodological tools will enable us to predict the transmission dynamics of diseases under different climate scenarios and estimate the cost-effectiveness of mitigation strategies. In this

  12. Climate Change and Air Pollution: Effects on Respiratory Allergy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Amato, Gennaro; Pawankar, Ruby; Vitale, Carolina; Lanza, Maurizia; Molino, Antonio; Stanziola, Anna; Sanduzzi, Alessandro; Vatrella, Alessandro; D'Amato, Maria

    2016-09-01

    A body of evidence suggests that major changes involving the atmosphere and the climate, including global warming induced by anthropogenic factors, have impact on the biosphere and human environment. Studies on the effects of climate change on respiratory allergy are still lacking and current knowledge is provided by epidemiological and experimental studies on the relationship between allergic respiratory diseases, asthma and environmental factors, such as meteorological variables, airborne allergens, and air pollution. Urbanization with its high levels of vehicle emissions, and a westernized lifestyle are linked to the rising frequency of respiratory allergic diseases and bronchial asthma observed over recent decades in most industrialized countries. However, it is not easy to evaluate the impact of climate changes and air pollution on the prevalence of asthma in the general population and on the timing of asthma exacerbations, although the global rise in asthma prevalence and severity could also be an effect of air pollution and climate change. Since airborne allergens and air pollutants are frequently increased contemporaneously in the atmosphere, an enhanced IgE-mediated response to aeroallergens and enhanced airway inflammation could account for the increasing frequency of respiratory allergy and asthma in atopic subjects in the last 5 decades. Pollen allergy is frequently used to study the relationship between air pollution and respiratory allergic diseases, such as rhinitis and bronchial asthma. Epidemiologic studies have demonstrated that urbanization, high levels of vehicle emissions, and westernized lifestyle are correlated with an increased frequency of respiratory allergy prevalently in people who live in urban areas in comparison with people living in rural areas. Climatic factors (temperature, wind speed, humidity, thunderstorms, etc.) can affect both components (biological and chemical) of this interaction. PMID:27334776

  13. Morphological change in Newfoundland caribou: Effects of abundance and climate

    OpenAIRE

    Shane P. Mahoney; Jackie N. Weir; J. Glenn Luther; Schaefer, James A; Shawn F. Morrison

    2011-01-01

    The demographic and environmental influences on large mammal morphology are central questions in ecology. We investigated the effects of population abundance and climate on body size and number of male antler points for the La Poile and Middle Ridge caribou (Rangifer tarandus, L. 1758) herds, Newfoundland, Canada. Across 40 years and 20-fold changes in abundance, adult males and females exhibited diminished stature as indicated by jawbone size (diastema and total mandible length) and the numb...

  14. Constraints to projecting the effects of climate change on mammals

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Berteaux, D.; Humphries, M. H.; Krebs, C. J.; Lima, M.; McAdam, A. G.; Pettorelli, N.; Réale, D.; Saitoh, T.; Tkadlec, Emil; Weladji, R. B.; Stenseth, N. C.

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 32, č. 2 (2006), s. 151-158. ISSN 0936-577X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA206/04/2003 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60930519 Keywords : climate change * mammals * ecology * forecasting * models * cause-effect relationships Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.519, year: 2006 http://www.int-res.com/articles/cr_oa/c032p151.pdf

  15. The qualitative effects of climate change on health in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report aims at giving a general basis for the possible effects of climate change within a context defined by data on possible climate change defined in collaboration with Meteo France. After a brief description of climate change in France, the authors describe the health consequences of different phenomena like: more frequent hotter days and nights and a lesser number of cold days and nights, heat waves and dryness, heavy precipitation events, increase of storm and hurricane activity, more frequent sea level rise. For each of these classes of consequences, they consider different more particular consequences, i.e. the increase of river and lake temperature and of sea surface temperature, increase of summer hours of sunshine, decrease of snow coverage duration, soft winters and early spring, decrease of frost, weak winds over longer periods, forest fire, decrease of river water level, decrease of ground waters, effects on microbial activities, floods, and so on. Then the author reports some observations made during the heat wave in France in 2003 (mortality, risk factors, interactions between temperature and air pollution, national planning) and in 2006

  16. Effects of climate change on climatic water deficit and wildfire in Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westerling, A. L.; Turner, M. G.; Lubetkin, K.

    2011-12-01

    Effects of climate change on climatic water deficit and wildfire in Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem forests Climate change is likely to alter wildfire regimes, but the magnitude and timing of potential climate-driven changes in regional fire regimes are not well understood. Westerling et al (2011) considered how the occurrence, size, and spatial location of large fires might respond to climate projections in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem (GYE), a large wildland ecosystem dominated by conifer forests and characterized by infrequent, high-severity fire. They developed statistical models that related climate data (1972-1999) to the occurrence and size of fires >200 ha in the northern Rocky Mountains. Cumulative deficit was particularly important for modeling extreme value distributions for fire size, and was also a statistically significant predictor of the occurrence and number of large fires. Most of the area burned in large fires in the GYE from 1972-99 occurred in 1988 in extremely large fires. Climate projections imply that conditions associated with extreme fires in the region will become more common in coming decades. Thus, in order to estimate climate change impacts on GYE fire regimes, it was imperative that models capture extremes in fire occurrence and particularly fire size distributions. We will discuss the role of cumulative deficit versus other climate variables and land-surface characteristics in modeling extremes in fire activity in the GYE and the Northern Rockies more generally. Westerling et al (2011) used their suite of models with downscaled climate projections from three global climate models to predict fire occurrence and area burned in the GYE through 2099. All models predicted substantial increases in fire by midcentury, with fire rotation reduced to fires were common historically but are expected to become rare as annual area burned and the frequency of regionally synchronous fires increase. These findings suggest a shift to novel fire-climate

  17. The increased atmospheric greenhouse effect and regional climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groenaas, S. [Bergen Univ. (Norway)

    1996-03-01

    This paper was read at the workshop ``The Norwegian Climate and Ozone Research Programme`` held on 11-12 March 1996. The main information for predicting future climate changes comes from integrating coupled climate models of the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere. Regional climate change may be studied from the global integrations, however, resolution is coarse because of insufficient computer power. Attempts are being made to get more regional details out of the global integrations by ``downscaling`` the latter. This can be done in two ways. Firstly, limited area models with high resolution are applied, driven by the global results as boundary values. Secondly, statistical relationships have been found between observed meteorological parameters, like temperature and precipitation, and analyzed large scale gridded fields. The derived relations are then used on similar data from climate runs to give local interpretations. A review is given of literature on recent observations of climate variations and on predicted regional climate change. 18 refs., 4 figs.

  18. Deforestation Induced Climate Change: Effects of Spatial Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longobardi, Patrick; Montenegro, Alvaro; Beltrami, Hugo; Eby, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Deforestation is associated with increased atmospheric CO2 and alterations to the surface energy and mass balances that can lead to local and global climate changes. Previous modelling studies show that the global surface air temperature (SAT) response to deforestation depends on latitude, with most simulations showing that high latitude deforestation results in cooling, low latitude deforestation causes warming and that the mid latitude response is mixed. These earlier conclusions are based on simulated large scal land cover change, with complete removal of trees from whole latitude bands. Using a global climate model we examine the effects of removing fractions of 5% to 100% of forested areas in the high, mid and low latitudes. All high latitude deforestation scenarios reduce mean global SAT, the opposite occurring for low latitude deforestation, although a decrease in SAT is simulated over low latitude deforested areas. Mid latitude SAT response is mixed. In all simulations deforested areas tend to become drier and have lower SAT, although soil temperatures increase over deforested mid and low latitude grid cells. For high latitude deforestation fractions of 45% and above, larger net primary productivity, in conjunction with colder and drier conditions after deforestation cause an increase in soil carbon large enough to produce a net decrease of atmospheric CO2. Our results reveal the complex interactions between soil carbon dynamics and other climate subsystems in the energy partition responses to land cover change. PMID:27100667

  19. Deforestation Induced Climate Change: Effects of Spatial Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longobardi, Patrick; Montenegro, Alvaro; Beltrami, Hugo; Eby, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Deforestation is associated with increased atmospheric CO2 and alterations to the surface energy and mass balances that can lead to local and global climate changes. Previous modelling studies show that the global surface air temperature (SAT) response to deforestation depends on latitude, with most simulations showing that high latitude deforestation results in cooling, low latitude deforestation causes warming and that the mid latitude response is mixed. These earlier conclusions are based on simulated large scal land cover change, with complete removal of trees from whole latitude bands. Using a global climate model we examine the effects of removing fractions of 5% to 100% of forested areas in the high, mid and low latitudes. All high latitude deforestation scenarios reduce mean global SAT, the opposite occurring for low latitude deforestation, although a decrease in SAT is simulated over low latitude deforested areas. Mid latitude SAT response is mixed. In all simulations deforested areas tend to become drier and have lower SAT, although soil temperatures increase over deforested mid and low latitude grid cells. For high latitude deforestation fractions of 45% and above, larger net primary productivity, in conjunction with colder and drier conditions after deforestation cause an increase in soil carbon large enough to produce a net decrease of atmospheric CO2. Our results reveal the complex interactions between soil carbon dynamics and other climate subsystems in the energy partition responses to land cover change. PMID:27100667

  20. Observations from old forests underestimate climate change effects on tree mortality

    OpenAIRE

    Luo, Yong; Chen, Han Y. H.

    2013-01-01

    Understanding climate change-associated tree mortality is central to linking climate change impacts and forest structure and function. However, whether temporal increases in tree mortality are attributed to climate change or stand developmental processes remains uncertain. Furthermore, interpreting the climate change-associated tree mortality estimated from old forests for regional forests rests on an un-tested assumption that the effects of climate change are the same for young and old fores...

  1. Climate for Change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    Cities rather than national governments take the lead in acting on climate change. Several cities have voluntarily created climate change plans to prevent and prepare for the effects of climate change. In the literature climate change has been examined as a multilevel governance area taking place...... around international networks. Despite the many initiatives taken by cities, existing research shows that the implementation of climate change actions is lacking. The reasons for this scarcity in practice are limited to general explanations in the literature, and studies focused on explaining...... the constraints on climate change planning at the local level are absent. To understand these constraints, this PhD thesis investigates the institutional dynamics that influence the process of the integration of climate change into planning practices at the local level in Denmark. The examination of integration...

  2. Morphological change in Newfoundland caribou: Effects of abundance and climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shane P. Mahoney

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The demographic and environmental influences on large mammal morphology are central questions in ecology. We investigated the effects of population abundance and climate on body size and number of male antler points for the La Poile and Middle Ridge caribou (Rangifer tarandus, L. 1758 herds, Newfoundland, Canada. Across 40 years and 20-fold changes in abundance, adult males and females exhibited diminished stature as indicated by jawbone size (diastema and total mandible length and the number of antler points at the time of harvest. Associations between jawbone size and population abundance at birth were consistently negative for both herds, both sexes, and all age classes. Large-scale climate patterns, as measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation in the winter prior to birth, were also negatively associated with jawbone size. Declines in male antler size, as measured by the number of antler points, were not well predicted by either abundance or climate, suggesting other factors (e.g., current, rather than latent, foraging conditions may be involved. We conclude that these morphological changes indicate competition for food resources.

  3. Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sale, Michael J. [M.J. Sale and Associates, Hanson, MA (United States); Shih-Chieh, Kao [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Ashfaq, Moetasim [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Kaiser, Dale P. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Martinez, Rocio [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Webb, Cindy [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Wei, Yaxing [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2012-10-01

    As directed by Congress in Section 9505 of the SECURE Water Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-11), the US Department of Energy (DOE), in consultation with the federal Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs) and other federal agencies, including federal dam owners, has prepared a comprehensive assessment examining the effects of climate change on water available for hydropower at federal facilities and on the marketing of power from these federal facilities. This Oak Ridge National Laboratory report, referred to as the “9505 Assessment,” describes the technical basis for the report to Congress that was called for in the SECURE Water Act.

  4. Climate change in urban areas. Part 1: Effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuttler, Wilhelm [Universitaet Duisburg-Essen, Campus Essen, Fakultaet fuer Biologie, Angewandte Klimatologie und Landschaftsoekologie, Essen (Germany)

    2011-12-15

    The objective of this article, which is being published in two parts, is to investigate the effects of global climate change on a conurbation (the Ruhr area) and to discuss local counter-measures. Part 1 deals with the origins of the natural and anthropogenic greenhouse effects, presents the contributions of the two effects to global warming and discusses recent examples of climate development from the Ruhr metropolis. The climate changes projected by various numeric and statistical models include an increase in thermal stress for city-dwellers and a rise in convective precipitation with corresponding run-off peaks in summer. As regard air pollutants (e.g. O{sub 3}, PM{sub 10}), it will mainly be the concentration of the near-surface trace gas ozone which will be clearly increased with rising temperatures. In contrast, a close correlation between atmospheric fine dust concentrations ({<=} PM{sub 10}) and temperature changes has not yet been established. Part 2 of the publication indicates how global climate change can be effectively combated at the local level using a number of application-oriented examples. These include measures affecting both individual properties and whole areas with a view to reducing urban overheating and CO{sub 2} emissions. (orig.) [German] Ziel dieses Beitrags, der in zwei Teilen erfolgt, ist es, die Wirkungen des globalen Klimawandels auf einen Ballungsraum (Ruhrgebiet) zu untersuchen und Gegenma{beta}nahmen auf lokaler Ebene zu diskutieren. Im ersten Teil wird auf die Entstehung des natuerlichen und anthropogenen Treibhauseffektes eingegangen und deren jeweilige Beitraege an der globalen Ueberwaermung herausgestellt. Exemplarisch wird auf die juengere Klimaentwicklung in der Metropolregion Ruhr eingegangen. Zu den durch verschiedene numerische und statistische Modelle projizierten Klimaveraenderungen zaehlen auch die Zunahme thermischer Belastungen fuer die Stadtbevoelkerung sowie die Verstaerkung sommerlicher konvektiver Niederschlaege

  5. Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower. Report to Congress

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2013-08-01

    This is a formal Department of Energy report to Congress. It outlines the findings of an assessment directed by Congress in Section 9505 of the SECURE Water Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-11), the US Department of Energy (DOE), in consultation with the federal Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs) and other federal agencies, including federal dam owners, has prepared a comprehensive assessment examining the effects of climate change on water available for hydropower at federal facilities and on the marketing of power from these federal facilities.

  6. Simulation of Effects of Land Use Change on Climate in China by a Regional Climate Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高学杰; 罗勇; 林万涛; 赵宗慈; FilippoGIORGI

    2003-01-01

    Climate effects of land use change in China as simulated by a regional climate model (RegCM2)are investigated. The model is nested in one-way mode within a global coupled atmosphere-ocean model(CSIRO R21L9 AOGCM). Two multi-year simulations, one with current land use and the other with potential vegetation cover, are conducted. Statistically significant changes of precipitation, surface air temperature, and daily maximum and daily minimum temperature are analyzed based on the difference between the two simulations. The simulated effects of land use change over China include a decrease of mean annual precipitation over Northwest China, a region with a prevalence of arid and semi-arid areas;an increase of mean annual surfaoe air temperature over some areas; and a decrease of temperature along coastal areas. Summer mean daily maximum temperature increases in many locations, while winter mean daily minimum temperature decreases in East China and increases in Northwest China. The upper soil moisture decreases significantly across China. The results indicate that the same land use change may cause different climate effects in different regions depending on the surrounding environment and climate characteristics.

  7. MODELING THE EFFECTS OF ANTHROPOGENIC SULFATE IN CLIMATE CHANGE BY USING A REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高学杰; 林一骅; 赵宗慈

    2003-01-01

    Effects of aerosol with focus on the direct climate effect of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol under 2×CO2 condition were investigated by introducing aerosol distribution into the latest version of RegCM2. Two experiments, first run(2×CO2 + 0 aerosol concentration) and second run (2×CO2 + aerosol distribution), were made for 5 years respectively. Preliminary analysis shows that the direct climate effect of aerosol might cause a decrease of surface air temperature.The decrease might be larger in winter and in South China. The regional-averaged monthly precipitation might also decrease in most of the months due to the effect. The annual mean change of precipitation might be a decrease in East and an increase in West China. But the changes of both temperature and precipitation simulated were much smaller as compared to the greenhouse effect.

  8. Climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

  9. Nitrogen cycling in heathland ecosystems and effects of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andresen, Louise Christoffersen

    of climate change treatment. Additionally, top soil net mineralization, immobilization and leaf litter decomposition was investigated through the winter half year separately below Calluna and Deschampsia plants, and acquisition of organic nitrogen in plants and soil microorganisms was assessed. After one......Terrestrial ecosystems are currently exposed to climatic and air quality changes with increased atmospheric CO2, increased temperature and periodical droughts. At a temperate heath site this was investigated in a unique full factorial in situ experiment (CLIMAITE). The climate change treatments...... acquisition by plants and soil microorganisms suggest directions of the short term competition at two dwarf shrub heaths, one with sub-arctic climate and one with temperate climate during spring and fall. Soil microorganisms acquired the largest amount of the added nitrogen sources compared to plants at both...

  10. The effects of climate change on harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, David W; Bowers, Matthew T; Friedlaender, Ari S; Lavigne, David M

    2012-01-01

    Harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus) have evolved life history strategies to exploit seasonal sea ice as a breeding platform. As such, individuals are prepared to deal with fluctuations in the quantity and quality of ice in their breeding areas. It remains unclear, however, how shifts in climate may affect seal populations. The present study assesses the effects of climate change on harp seals through three linked analyses. First, we tested the effects of short-term climate variability on young-of-the year harp seal mortality using a linear regression of sea ice cover in the Gulf of St. Lawrence against stranding rates of dead harp seals in the region during 1992 to 2010. A similar regression of stranding rates and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index values was also conducted. These analyses revealed negative correlations between both ice cover and NAO conditions and seal mortality, indicating that lighter ice cover and lower NAO values result in higher mortality. A retrospective cross-correlation analysis of NAO conditions and sea ice cover from 1978 to 2011 revealed that NAO-related changes in sea ice may have contributed to the depletion of seals on the east coast of Canada during 1950 to 1972, and to their recovery during 1973 to 2000. This historical retrospective also reveals opposite links between neonatal mortality in harp seals in the Northeast Atlantic and NAO phase. Finally, an assessment of the long-term trends in sea ice cover in the breeding regions of harp seals across the entire North Atlantic during 1979 through 2011 using multiple linear regression models and mixed effects linear regression models revealed that sea ice cover in all harp seal breeding regions has been declining by as much as 6 percent per decade over the time series of available satellite data. PMID:22238591

  11. Climate change effects on plant growth, crop yield and livestock

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rötter, R.P.; Geijn, van de S.C.

    1999-01-01

    A review is given of the state of knowledge in the field of assessing climate change impacts on agricultural crops and livestock. Starting from the basic processes controlling plant growth and development, the possible impacts and interactions of climatic and other biophysical variables in different

  12. The effects of climate and climate change on the economy of Alberta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Results are summarized from a study into the link between climate warming expected from a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide and the economy of Alberta. Part of the study quantified the impacts of the 1988 temperature anomaly in the province, using actual economic data for the same year. The 1988 temperatures averaged 3 C higher than normal for the year, and thus were similar to those projected (due to climate change) to be the new normals 4-5 decades from the present. In the agricultural sector, the overall economy is less dependent on climate due to the likelihood of offsetting positive and negative regional impacts. Adaptive methods appear to have the potential to mitigate any impacts by changing crop types and farming methods across regions, and by adjusting the mix of farming in any given region. In the forest sector, fire occurrence and frequency depend on seasonal distribution of precipitation; model predictions are probably not reliable enough to estimate the frequency or intensity of future fire occurrences. In the energy sector, total provincial electrical usage is not strongly climate-dependent, but 80% of natural gas consumption is dependent on climate. Under one scenario, the total provincial electrical energy saving is estimated at 0.5% annually and a 20% reduction in natural gas demand. In other sectors, general results suggest climate change would extend the seasonal and geographical range for many summer activities while the effects on winter activities are more uncertain. The links between climate and wildlife or human populations are not well defined. 2 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  13. Effects of the climate change in the hydrologic cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arreguin Cortés, F.; López Pérez, M.

    2010-03-01

    Among the different effects resulting from the Climate Change around the world related to the water cycle those that account more are the drought and the flooding. Also the water supply sources is expected to diminished or polluted, wetlands tend to disappear and aquatic environments degrade, population is expected to be displaced because of the increase in sea level in deltaic zones and a lowering in health standards related to water diseases due to extreme meteorological phenomena and new climatic conditions. That the climate has changed in México is a fact and its features are the increase in seasonal temperature (winter and summer) as well as a reduction in summer precipitation in central and northern Mexico coupled to an increase in winter in the northwestern regions. More frequent severe storms in different Mexican regions (southeastern and central Mexico) and in urban areas like Mexico City and the gradual reduction in the water flowing in rivers are also evidence of this change. The National Water Commission has developed studies using maximum and minimum temperature and daily precipitation analysis from a new data base called Maya v1 which accounts for a regular network that covers the entire country. Also coastal aquifer studies, hurricane strikes incidence and identification of specific areas in water basins with major vulnerability (closely related to urban and rural settlements invading floodplains and water courses) are underway. Some studies and actions that need to be developed and taken are indicated and an example of coordinated work is shown. In addition a set of adaptation measures to take according to the regional situation is described. Such measures should focus on the present situation as well as for the future and need to be studied and foreseen now. If such measures are quickly taken in those vulnerable areas the costs they represent will be less compared with the costs of the damages due to the presence of the hydrometeorological

  14. Climatic change effects on agriculture. A future scenario; Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die Landwirtschaft. Ein Zukunftsszenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Busch, Udo [Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach (Germany). Abt. Agrarmeteorologie

    2014-07-01

    The contribution on the effect of the climatic change on agriculture covers the topics meteorology - agriculture, modeling of the climate, observation of projected changes - temperature, precipitation and extreme weather conditions; effects of the climatic change on selected agro-meteorological parameters in agriculture - surface temperature, shift of the growing period, corn and other energy plants for biogas production, droughts.

  15. Climate Change: Basic Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... are here: EPA Home Climate Change Basic Information Climate Change: Basic Information On This Page Climate change ... We can make a difference How is the climate changing in the U.S.? Observations across the United ...

  16. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The indicators in this bulletin are part of a national set of environmental indicators designed to provide a profile of the state of Canada's environment and measure progress towards sustainable development. A review of potential impacts on Canada shows that such changes would have wide-ranging implications for its economic sectors, social well-being including human health, and ecological systems. This document looks at the natural state of greenhouse gases which help regulate the Earth's climate. Then it looks at human influence and what is being done about it. The document then examines some indicators: Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use; global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases; and global and Canadian temperature variations

  17. Modeling the effects of local climate change on crop acreage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyunok Lee

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of climate change on agriculture depend on local conditions and crops grown. For instance, warmer winter temperatures in a given area would reduce chill hours, potentially cutting yields for some crops but extending the growing season for others. Using a century of climate data and six decades of acreage data, we established quantitative economic relationships between the evolution of local climate and acreage of 12 important crops in Yolo County. We then used the historical trend in climate change to project future crop acreages in the county. Only marginal changes in acreage in 2050 were projected for tree and vine crops there, in part because chill hours, although lower, remained above critical values. Walnuts were the most vulnerable tree crop, and the projections indicated some cultivars might be marginal in years with particularly warm winters. Processing tomato acreage might increase, due to a longer growing season, and also alfalfa acreage, if water availability and other factors remain constant.

  18. Effects of changes in climate on landscape and regional processes, and feedbacks to the climate system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callaghan, Terry V; Björn, Lars Olof; Chernov, Yuri; Chapin, Terry; Christensen, Torben R; Huntley, Brian; Ims, Rolf A; Johansson, Margareta; Jolly, Dyanna; Jonasson, Sven; Matveyeva, Nadya; Panikov, Nicolai; Oechel, Walter; Shaver, Gus; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Sitch, Stephen

    2004-11-01

    Biological and physical processes in the Arctic system operate at various temporal and spatial scales to impact large-scale feedbacks and interactions with the earth system. There are four main potential feedback mechanisms between the impacts of climate change on the Arctic and the global climate system: albedo, greenhouse gas emissions or uptake by ecosystems, greenhouse gas emissions from methane hydrates, and increased freshwater fluxes that could affect the thermohaline circulation. All these feedbacks are controlled to some extent by changes in ecosystem distribution and character and particularly by large-scale movement of vegetation zones. Indications from a few, full annual measurements of CO2 fluxes are that currently the source areas exceed sink areas in geographical distribution. The little available information on CH4 sources indicates that emissions at the landscape level are of great importance for the total greenhouse balance of the circumpolar North. Energy and water balances of Arctic landscapes are also important feedback mechanisms in a changing climate. Increasing density and spatial expansion of vegetation will cause a lowering of the albedo and more energy to be absorbed on the ground. This effect is likely to exceed the negative feedback of increased C sequestration in greater primary productivity resulting from the displacements of areas of polar desert by tundra, and areas of tundra by forest. The degradation of permafrost has complex consequences for trace gas dynamics. In areas of discontinuous permafrost, warming, will lead to a complete loss of the permafrost. Depending on local hydrological conditions this may in turn lead to a wetting or drying of the environment with subsequent implications for greenhouse gas fluxes. Overall, the complex interactions between processes contributing to feedbacks, variability over time and space in these processes, and insufficient data have generated considerable uncertainties in estimating the net

  19. Global vs climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The various agents of global change that will affect the state of natural resources 50-100 years from now are discussed. These include economic and population growth, technological progress, and climatic change. The importance of climatic change lies in its effects on natural resources and on human activities that depend on those resources. Other factors affecting those resources include the demand on those resources from an increasing population and from a growing economy, and a more efficient use of those resources that comes from technological changes and from the consequences of economic growth itself. It is shown that there is a considerable ability to adapt to climatic change, since humans already have an intrinsic ability to adapt to the wide variations in climates that already exist and since technological developments can make it easier to cope with climatic variability. It appears that agents other than climatic change are more significant to the future state of natural resources than climatic change. Criteria for selecting options for addressing climatic change are outlined. Technological change and economic growth are seen to be key response options, since the vulnerability to climatic change depends on economic resources and technological progress. Specific options to stimulate sustainable economic growth and technological progress are listed. 16 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  20. German Farmers' Perception of Climate Change Effects and Determinants Influencing Their Climate Awareness

    OpenAIRE

    Jänecke, Aileen; Eisele, Marius; Reinmuth, Evelyn; Steinbach, Jennifer; Aurbacher, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    This paper focuses on the attitude of German farmers towards climate change effects and aims to identify determinants affecting their perception of weather conditions. For this purpose, descriptive statistics and multiple linear regression approaches were applied. Data was collected using a questionnaire survey, which was conducted in spring 2013 among 173 German farmers in the two regions Swabian Alb and Kraichgau. The analyses revealed that four main factors influence the perception of weat...

  1. Changing climate, changing frames

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► We show development of flood policy frames in context of climate change attention. ► Rising attention on climate change influences traditional flood policy framing. ► The new framing employs global-scale scientific climate change knowledge. ► With declining attention, framing disregards climate change, using local knowledge. ► We conclude that frames function as sensemaking devices selectively using knowledge. -- Abstract: Water management and particularly flood defence have a long history of collective action in low-lying countries like the Netherlands. The uncertain but potentially severe impacts of the recent climate change issue (e.g. sea level rise, extreme river discharges, salinisation) amplify the wicked and controversial character of flood safety policy issues. Policy proposals in this area generally involve drastic infrastructural works and long-term investments. They face the difficult challenge of framing problems and solutions in a publicly acceptable manner in ever changing circumstances. In this paper, we analyse and compare (1) how three key policy proposals publicly frame the flood safety issue, (2) the knowledge referred to in the framing and (3) how these frames are rhetorically connected or disconnected as statements in a long-term conversation. We find that (1) framings of policy proposals differ in the way they depict the importance of climate change, the relevant timeframe and the appropriate governance mode; (2) knowledge is selectively mobilised to underpin the different frames and (3) the frames about these proposals position themselves against the background of the previous proposals through rhetorical connections and disconnections. Finally, we discuss how this analysis hints at the importance of processes of powering and puzzling that lead to particular framings towards the public at different historical junctures

  2. Climate change effects on soil organic carbon changes in agricultural lands of Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Álvaro-Fuentes, J.; Easter, M.; Arrúe, J. L.; Cantero-Martínez, C.; Paustian, K.

    2012-04-01

    Climate is a key factor to explain changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) at regional scales. Experimental data have showed that spatial and temporal changes in soil temperature and moisture modify microbial activity and thus SOC decomposition. Furthermore, precipitation amount and distribution have a main impact on crop growth and residue production. According to predictions based on atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) for the next decades in the Mediterranean region, air temperature will significantly increase and precipitation decrease with a significant impact on SOC turnover. However, in agricultural systems, the study of the impacts of climate on SOC dynamics is a complex task since climate effects will be determined by both soil characteristics and management practices. The establishment of soil monitoring networks within a specific region is a recommended approach to study the interactive effects of climate, management and soil on SOC changes. However, in large areas, the establishment and maintenance of these networks can imply significant cost and time. A lower cost and time consuming approach can be the use of soil organic matter (SOM) models. The use of process based SOM models linked to spatial data through geographical information systems (GIS) permits to integrate the spatial variability of the parameters that control SOM dynamics. This approach can be appropriate for Spanish conditions where the complex orography results in a large range of local climates. Moreover, the large agricultural heterogeneity in terms of management systems could have a noteworthy impact on the effects of climate on SOC turnover in Spanish agroecosystems. Thus, in this study we used the Century model to analyse the impact of climate on SOC changes in a representative area of 40498 km2 located in northeast Spain. The spatial distribution of the different land use categories and their change over time was obtained from the European Corine database. Soil

  3. The changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A historical outline of climate changes is followed by a discussion of the problem of predictability. The main section goes into anthropogenic changes of the local (urban) and global climate, with particular regard to the greenhouse effect and its consequences in terms of human action. The author points out that today's climate problems should be discussed in a subject-centered and objective manner. (KW)

  4. An evaluation of climate change effects on agricultural systems: the case of Trasimeno Lake

    OpenAIRE

    Antonio Boggia; Fabrizio Luciani; Gianluca Massei; Luisa Paolotti; Lucia Rocchi; Tommaso Sediari

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is a current matter that is viewed as controversial by the general public, within scientific communities and by governments. Among the production sectors, agriculture is the most significantly influenced by the effect of climate change. This study is aimed at understanding and measuring the changes that occur in agricultural systems due to climate, and at determining how climate change can affect both agricultural productivity and the environmental impacts of agricultural syste...

  5. Climate change effects on human health in a gender perspective: some trends in Arctic research

    OpenAIRE

    Natalia, Kukarenko

    2011-01-01

    Background Climate change and environmental pollution have become pressing concerns for the peoples in the Arctic region. Some researchers link climate change, transformations of living conditions and human health. A number of studies have also provided data on differentiating effects of climate change on women's and men's well-being and health. Objective To show how the issues of climate and environment change, human health and gender are addressed in current research in the Arctic. The main...

  6. Climate change effects on human health in a gender perspective: some trends in Arctic research

    OpenAIRE

    Kukarenko, Natalia

    2011-01-01

    Background: Climate change and environmental pollution have become pressing concerns for the peoples in the Arctic region. Some researchers link climate change, transformations of living conditions and human health. A number of studies have also provided data on differentiating effects of climate change on women’s and men’s well-being and health. Objective: To show how the issues of climate and environment change, human health and gender are addressed in current research in the Arctic. The ma...

  7. The Effect of Tide on the Global Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Xuexiang; CHEN Zhen; CHEN Dianyou; Qiao Qiyuan

    2002-01-01

    The differential rotation between the solid and fluid spheres caused by tidal force could explain the 1500 to 1800-year cycle of the world's temperature. Strong tide increases the vertical and horizontal mixing of water in the oceans, drawing the cold Pacific water from the depths to the surface and the warm water from the west to the east, where it cools or warms the atmosphere above, absorbs or releases CO2 to decrease or increase greenhouse effect and to make La Nina or El Nino occur in the global. The moon's declination and obliquity of the ecliptic affect the tidal intensity. The exchange of tidal energy and tide-generating force caused by the sun, moon and major planets makes the earth's layers rotate in different speeds. The differenti-al rotation between solid and fluid of the earth is the basic reason for El Nino and global climate change.

  8. Climate change effects on international stability : a white paper.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murphy, Kathryn; Taylor, Mark A.; Fujii, Joy; Malczynski, Leonard A.; McNamara, Laura A.; Reinert, Rhonda K.; Sprigg, James A.; Backus, George A.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

    2004-12-01

    This white paper represents a summary of work intended to lay the foundation for development of a climatological/agent model of climate-induced conflict. The paper combines several loosely-coupled efforts and is the final report for a four-month late-start Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project funded by the Advanced Concepts Group (ACG). The project involved contributions by many participants having diverse areas of expertise, with the common goal of learning how to tie together the physical and human causes and consequences of climate change. We performed a review of relevant literature on conflict arising from environmental scarcity. Rather than simply reviewing the previous work, we actively collected data from the referenced sources, reproduced some of the work, and explored alternative models. We used the unfolding crisis in Darfur (western Sudan) as a case study of conflict related to or triggered by climate change, and as an exercise for developing a preliminary concept map. We also outlined a plan for implementing agents in a climate model and defined a logical progression toward the ultimate goal of running both types of models simultaneously in a two-way feedback mode, where the behavior of agents influences the climate and climate change affects the agents. Finally, we offer some ''lessons learned'' in attempting to keep a diverse and geographically dispersed group working together by using Web-based collaborative tools.

  9. Effects of climate change on annual streamflow using climate elasticity in Poyang Lake Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Shanlei; Chen, Haishan; Ju, Weimin; Song, Jie; Zhang, Hao; Sun, Jie; Fang, Yujie

    2013-04-01

    Hydrological processes depend directly on climate conditions [e.g., precipitation, potential evapotranspiration ( PE)] based on the water balance. This paper examines streamflow datasets at four hydrological stations and meteorological observations at 79 weather stations to reveal the streamflow changes and underlying drivers in four typical watersheds (Meigang, Saitang, Gaosha, and Xiashan) within Poyang Lake Basin from 1961 to 2000. Most of the less than 90th percentile of daily streamflow in each watershed increases significantly at different rates. As an important indicator of the seasonal changes in the streamflow, CT (the timing of the mass center of the streamflow) in each watershed shows a negligible change. The annual streamflow in each watershed increases at different rates, with a statistically significant trend (at the 5 % level) of 9.87 and 7.72 mm year-1, respectively, in Meigang and Gaosha watersheds. Given the existence of interactions between precipitation and PE, the original climate elasticity of streamflow can not reflect the relationship of streamflow with precipitation and PE effectively. We modify this method and find the modified climate elasticity to be more accurate and reasonable using the correlation analysis. The analyses from the modified climate elasticity in the four watersheds show that a 10 % increase (decrease) in precipitation will increase (decrease) the annual streamflow by 14.1-16.3 %, while a 10 % increase (decrease) in PE will decrease (increase) the annual streamflow by -10.2 to -2.1 %. In addition, the modified climate elasticity is applied to estimate the contribution of annual precipitation and PE to the increasing annual streamflow in each watershed over the past 40 years. Our result suggests that the percentage attribution of the increasing precipitation is more than 59 % and the decreasing in PE is less than 41 %, indicating that the increasing precipitation is the major driving factor for the annual streamflow

  10. Come rain or shine? Public expectation on local weather change and differential effects on climate change attitude.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Alex Y; Jim, C Y

    2015-11-01

    Tailored messages are instrumental to climate change communication. Information about the global threat can be 'localised' by demonstrating its linkage with local events. This research ascertains the relationship between climate change attitude and perception of local weather, based on a survey involving 800 Hong Kong citizens. Results indicate that concerns about climate change increase with expectations about the likelihood and impacts of local weather change. Climate change believers attend to all three types of adverse weather events, namely, temperature rises, tropical cyclones and prolonged rains. Climate scepticism, however, is not associated with expectation about prolonged rains. Differential spatial orientations are a possible reason. Global climate change is an unprecedented and distant threat, whereas local rain is a more familiar and localised weather event. Global climate change should be articulated in terms that respect local concerns. Localised framing may be particularly effective for engaging individuals holding positive views about climate change science. PMID:24495900

  11. Effects of climate change on boreal wetland and riparian vegetation

    OpenAIRE

    Ström, Lotta

    2011-01-01

    Models of climate change predict that temperature will increase during the 21th century and the largest warming will take place at high northern latitudes. In addition to warming, predictions for northern Europe include increased annual precipitation and a higher proportion of the precipitation during winter falling as rain instead of snow. These changes will substantially alter the hydrology of rivers and streams and change the conditions for riverine communities. The warming is also expecte...

  12. The Effect of Climate change on Soil Organic Matter Decomposition

    OpenAIRE

    TÓTH, János Attila; LAJTHA, Kate; Bowden, Richard; KOTROCZÓ, Zsolt; KRAKOMPERGER, Zsolt; Caldwell, Bruce; Papp, Mária

    2007-01-01

    In the last few decades the climate of Síkfkút ILTER Forest (Hungary) became warmerand dryer. Due to the climate change the species composition of forest has been changing, and thetotal leaf litter production has been slightly decreasing. According to our long-term litter manipulationfield experiment, which is part of ILTER Detritus Input and Removal Treatments (DIRT) Project, aftera 4-5 year treating period, at the No Litter, No Root and No Input treatments the soil organic C and Ncontent, t...

  13. UK's climate change levy: cost effectiveness, competitiveness and environmental impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper intends to examine the cost effectiveness of UK's climate change levy (CCL), its implications on competitiveness of firms and the environmental impact. The paper briefly describes the levy and analyses it under the cannons of a good taxation policy. The economic implications of the levy are discussed with theoretical and empirical perspectives. Change in net exports, investment patterns and productivity and inclusion of compliance cost forms the basis for analysing the effect on competitiveness. It discusses the options available to firms to safeguard their competitiveness if it is adversely affected by the CCL. A description of the current scenario of the levy since its inception is also presented. The paper argues the need for a comprehensive policy involving the use of standards, emission trading as well as energy taxes to achieve emission and energy-use reductions. A focal point of this paper is to elucidate the pros and cons of the CCL (energy tax) with respect to an emission trading scheme

  14. Identifying Effective Strategies for Climate Change Education: The Coastal Areas Climate Change Education (CACCE) Partnership Audiences and Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, J. G.; Feldman, A.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Gilbes, F.; Stone, D.; Plank, L.; Reynolds, C. J.

    2011-12-01

    Many past educational initiatives focused on global climate change have foundered on public skepticism and disbelief. Some key reasons for these past failures can be drawn directly from recognized best practices in STEM education - specifically, the necessity to help learners connect new knowledge with their own experiences and perspectives, and the need to create linkages with issues or concerns that are both important for and relevant to the audiences to be educated. The Coastal Areas Climate Change Education (CACCE) partnership has sought to follow these tenets as guiding principles in identifying critical audiences and developing new strategies for educating the public living in the low-lying coastal areas of Florida and the Caribbean on the realities, risks, and adaptation and mitigation strategies for dealing with the regional impacts of global climate change. CACCE is currently focused on three key learner audiences: a) The formal education spectrum, targeting K-12 curricula through middle school marine science courses, and student and educator audiences through coursework and participatory research strategies engaging participants in a range of climate-related investigations. b) Informal science educators and outlets, in particular aquaria and nature centers, as an avenue toward K-12 teacher professional development as well as for public education. c) Regional planning, regulatory and business professionals focused on the built environment along the coasts, many of whom require continuing education to maintain licensing and/or other professional certifications. Our current activities are focused on bringing together an effective set of educational, public- and private-sector partners to target the varied needs of these audiences in Florida and the U.S. Caribbean, and tailoring an educational plan aimed at these stakeholder audiences that starts with the regionally and topically relevant impacts of climate change, and strategies for effective adaptation and

  15. Trade and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamiotti, L.; Teh, R.; Kulacoglu, V. (World Trade Organization (WTO), Geneva (Switzerland)); Olhoff, A.; Simmons, B.; Abaza, H. (United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (Denmark))

    2009-06-15

    The Report aims to improve understanding about the linkages between trade and climate change. It shows that trade intersects with climate change in a multitude of ways. For example, governments may introduce a variety of policies, such as regulatory measures and economic incentives, to address climate change. This complex web of measures may have an impact on international trade and the multilateral trading system. The Report begins with a summary of the current state of scientific knowledge on climate change and on the options available for responding to the challenge of climate change. The scientific review is followed by a part on the economic aspects of the link between trade and climate change, and these two parts set the context for the subsequent parts of the Report, which looks at the policies introduced at both the international and national level to address climate change. The part on international policy responses to climate change describes multilateral efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the effects of climate change, and also discusses the role of the current trade and environment negotiations in promoting trade in technologies that aim to mitigate climate change. The final part of the Report gives an overview of a range of national policies and measures that have been used in a number of countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to increase energy efficiency. It presents key features in the design and implementation of these policies, in order to draw a clearer picture of their overall effect and potential impact on environmental protection, sustainable development and trade. It also gives, where appropriate, an overview of the WTO rules that may be relevant to such measures. (author)

  16. Effects of climate changes on forest ecosystems. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The report evalutates the current state of knowledge on the effects of site-related climate factors (temperature sum in the vegetation period, frost, water supply and arid phases) on the growth and distribution of different tree species. The effects of increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere are discussed as well.(orig./MG)

  17. Olivine and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuiling, R.D.

    2012-01-01

    The greenhouse effect, thanks mainly to the water vapor in our atmosphere, has created a livable climate on Earth. Climate change, however, may potentially have dire consequences. It is generally assumed that the rise in CO2 levels in the atmosphere is the main culprit, although several other greenh

  18. Effects of Climate Change on Wildlife and Tourism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kenya is well endowed with large variety of wild terrestrial and aquatic fauna and flora whose distribution traverses various ecological zone with variety of landscape. The landscape consists of mountains, plains and platues which provide a wealthy ecological base for the tourism industry. The development of tourism infrastructure has been influenced by the distribution of animals that popularly attract tourists. The spatial and temporal distribution of such animals have to large extent been influenced by climate change and other environmental factors. Lately, there has arisen concern that, climate change resulting from the green-house induced global warming would alter wildlife habitat conditions and lead to changes in species composition and dominance. One of the most challenging tasks of managing and planning for the development of tourism is the uncertainty associated with future wildlife in Kenya. The influence of climate is a major determinant of species distribution of both mammalian and avifauna in Kenya. For instance, elephants and buffaloes are usually found in Afro-Alpine glacier and moorlands, highlands moist forests, the grasslands, the coastal forest and woodland habitats. The type of vegetation in a certain geographical region is determined by climate which in turn determines the distribution of fauna considering that, different faunas survive adopt to different ecological zones

  19. The effect of climatic changes on Van lake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lake levels are influenced by climatic changes, greenhouse effects and anthropogenic activities. These effects are reflected in the hydrological cycle features over the lake drainage basins. Among the significant hydrological variables, lake levels are influenced by different atmospheric and environmental conditions. During wet periods, there may be water-level rise that may cause some social and economical losses to agriculture and human activities along the lake shores. Such rises become serious in the case of shore line settlements and low lying agricultural land. Lake Van currently faces such problems due to water-level rises in eastern Turkey. Because of, it is a closed basin with no natural and artificial outlet and its water contain high concentrations of soda which prevent the use of its water as a drinking or agricultural water source, Lake Van unique. Under these circumstances, in addition to discussion of early studies air temperature, δ18O of precipitation, temperature profile of lake and δ18O variation of water column of lake Van were examined

  20. UN Convention on Climate Change: effects on Australia's energy sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Australian government's interim planning target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions calls for a larger cut in emissions than is implied by the commitments contained in the recently completed United Nations Convention on Climate Change. The commitments in the Convention also leave considerable scope for how fast and by how much emissions are to be reduced. The aim in this article is to present an analysis of the effects on the Australian energy sector of stabilising carbon dioxide emissions at various levels and by various dates consistent with the commitments in the Convention, and to compare these effects with those of meeting the Australian government's current interim target. The major analytical tool used is MENSA, a multiperiod linear program-mining model of the Australian energy sector, The stabilisation targets are modelled to involve a gradual reduction in the amount of coal used for electricity generation from 1995 onwards, but coal continues to be the major source of base load electricity over the entire period to 2020. By contrast, modelling of the government's interim target indicates that coal would have to be almost completely phased out as a fuel for electricity generation by 2005. Analysis using the MENSA linear programming model of the Australian energy system also indicates that the total discounted cost of meeting such targets would be between $4.7 billion and $9.0 billion, compared with $41.2 billion for the government's interim target. 6 refs., 4 tabs., 5 figs

  1. Landscape changes have greater effects than climate changes on six insect pests in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zihua; Sandhu, Hardev S; Ouyang, Fang; Ge, Feng

    2016-06-01

    In recent years, global changes are the major causes of frequent, widespread outbreaks of pests in mosaic landscapes, which have received substantial attention worldwide. We collected data on global changes (landscape and climate) and economic damage caused by six main insect pests during 1951-2010 in China. Landscape changes had significant effects on all six insect pests. Pest damage increased significantly with increasing arable land area in agricultural landscapes. However, climate changes had no effect on damage caused by pests, except for the rice leaf roller (Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee) and armyworm (Mythimna separate (Walker)), which caused less damage to crops with increasing mean temperature. Our results indicate that there is slight evidence of possible offset effects of climate changes on the increasing damage from these two agricultural pests. Landscape changes have caused serious outbreaks of several species, which suggests the possibility of the use of landscape design for the control of pest populations through habitat rearrangement. Landscape manipulation may be used as a green method to achieve sustainable pest management with minimal use of insecticides and herbicides. PMID:26825944

  2. An energy balance model of carbon's effect on climate change

    CERN Document Server

    Benney, Lucas

    2015-01-01

    Due to climate change, the interest of studying our climatic system using mathematical modeling has become tremendous in recent years. One well-known model is Budyko's system, which represents the coupled evolution of two variables, the ice-line and the average earth surface temperature. The system depends on natural parameters, such as the earth albedo, and the amount A of carbon in the atmosphere. We introduce a 3-dimensional extension of this model in which we regard A as the third coupled variable of the system. We analyze the phase space and dependence on parameters, looking for Hopf bifurcations and the birth of cycling behavior. We interpret the cycles as climatic oscillations triggered by the sensitivity in our regulation of carbon emissions at extreme temperatures.

  3. Impact of Climate Change Effects on Contamination of Cereal Grains with Deoxynivalenol

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Fels-Klerx, H J; van Asselt, E D; Madsen, M S;

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to aggravate feed and food safety problems of crops; however, quantitative estimates are scarce. This study aimed to estimate impacts of climate change effects on deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat and maize grown in the Netherlands by 2040. Quantitative modelling was...... applied, considering both direct effects of changing climate on toxin contamination and indirect effects via shifts in crop phenology. Climate change projections for the IPCC A1B emission scenario were used for the scenario period 2031-2050 relative to the baseline period of 1975-1994. Climatic data from......, which was significant for one climate model combination, but not significant for the other one. In general, results disagree with previous reported expectations of increased feed and food safety hazards under climate change. This study illustrated the relevance of using quantitative models to estimate...

  4. Witnesses of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After having evoked the process of climate change, the effect of greenhouse gas emissions, the evolution of average temperatures in France since 1900, and indicated the various interactions and impacts of climate change regarding air quality, water resources, food supply, degradation and loss of biodiversity, deforestation, desertification, this publication, while quoting various testimonies (from a mountain refuge guardian, a wine maker, a guide in La Reunion, an IFREMER bio-statistician engineer, and a representative of health professionals), describes the various noticed impacts of climate change on the environment in mountain chains, on agriculture, on sea level rise, on overseas biodiversity, and on health

  5. Effects of climate change on drought risks in the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, and Flint River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tasker, Gary D.

    1993-01-01

    Possible effects of climate change on the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River basin is simulated with a computer model. Model inputs are monthly temperature and precipitation that simulate several possible climate change scenarios. Preliminary results for climate scenarios based on output for three popular general circulation models indicate that lower flows will occur more frequently if the regional climate warms and monthly precipitation decreases during critical summer months.

  6. Effects of Climate and Climate Change on Vectors and Vector-Borne Diseases: Ticks Are Different.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogden, Nick H; Lindsay, L Robbin

    2016-08-01

    There has been considerable debate as to whether global risk from vector-borne diseases will be impacted by climate change. This has focussed on important mosquito-borne diseases that are transmitted by the vectors from infected to uninfected humans. However, this debate has mostly ignored the biological diversity of vectors and vector-borne diseases. Here, we review how climate and climate change may impact those most divergent of arthropod disease vector groups: multivoltine insects and hard-bodied (ixodid) ticks. We contrast features of the life cycles and behaviour of these arthropods, and how weather, climate, and climate change may have very different impacts on the spatiotemporal occurrence and abundance of vectors, and the pathogens they transmit. PMID:27260548

  7. The effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skjøth, Carsten Ambelas; Geels, Camilla

    2013-01-01

    to a standard Danish pig stable with 1000 animals and display how emissions from this source would vary geographically throughout central and northern Europe and from year to year. In view of future climate changes, we also evaluate the potential future changes in emission by including temperature projections...... from an ensemble of climate models. The results point towards four overall issues. (1) Emissions can easily vary by 20% for different geographical locations within a country due to overall variations in climate. The largest uncertainties are seen for large countries such as the UK, Germany and France....... (2) Annual variations in overall climate can at specific locations cause uncertainties in the range of 20 %. (3) Climate change may increase emissions by 0–40% in central to northern Europe. (4) Gradients in existing emission inventories that are seen between neighbour countries (e.g. between the UK...

  8. Effects of global climate change and organic pollution on nutrient cycling in marine sediments

    OpenAIRE

    Sanz-Lázaro, C.; T. Valdemarsen; Holmer, M.

    2015-01-01

    Increasing ocean temperature due to climate change is an important anthropogenic driver of ecological change in coastal systems, where sediments play a major role in nutrient cycling. Our ability to predict ecological consequences of climate change is enhanced by simulating real scenarios especially when the interactions among drivers may not be just additive. Based on predicted climate change scenarios, we tested the effect of temperature and organic pollution on nutrient r...

  9. Biological effects of climate change: An introduction to the field and a survey of current research

    OpenAIRE

    Kristiansen, Gørill

    1993-01-01

    This report presents a survey of international (Chapter 2) as well as national research activities within 13 selected countries (Chapter 3) in the field of biological effects of climate change. In addition, a brief overview of potential changes within natural ecosystems in response to climate change is given (Chapter 1). This part is intended to serve as a quick introduction for biologists who lack previous experience with the whole or parts of the field of climate change impact studies. The ...

  10. In Brief: Report details climate change effects on cultural sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zielinski, Sarah

    2007-04-01

    A new report from UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization) details how 26 World Heritage sites could be affected by coming climate changes. The 26 examples, which are meant to be representative of the range of threats to the 830 sites inscribed in the World Heritage List, are divided into five types: archaeological sites, glaciers, historic cities and settlements, marine biodiversity, and terrestrial biodiversity. Some of the examples include the Great Barrier Reef, which is expected to experience more frequent episodes of coral bleaching; Timbuktu in Mali, threatened by desertification; and the Chavín Archaeological Site in the Peruvian Central Andes, one of the earliest and best-known pre-Columbian sites, which could be affected by glacier melting and flooding. The report, ``Case Studies on Climate Change and World Heritage,'' is available at http://whc.unesco.org/documents/publi_climatechange.pdf

  11. Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    According to the National Academy of Sciences in American,the Earth's surface temperature has risen by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated warming during the past two decades. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.Human activities have altered the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases-primarily carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The heat-trapping property of these gases is undisputed although uncertainties exist about exactly how earth's climate responds to them.

  12. Modelling the effect of UK energy policy and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Ronald Wai Ho

    The central aim of this thesis is to investigate various UK energy policy documents and identify how they are implanted to the main energy consuming sectors in order to achieve a reduction of 60 percent of carbon emissions by 2050. This has lead to two key questions: What are the pros and cons of the various UK energy policy documents What are the impacts of currently proposed environmental policies in UK on economic growth in the 21st century To answer these questions, the following four energy policy documents are reviewed. UK Energy White Paper Energy Efficiency Commitment Climate Change Levy and UK Emissions Trading Scheme Renewable Obligations Also, the following macro energy modelling work is also investigated: Markal Model E3ME The UK Energy White Paper has shown the government is being very eager to solve the climate change and its associated problems by reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 60 percent by 2050. The four documents have illustrated the UK government main strategies to tackle climate change they are based on developing new technology, improving energy efficiency and to increase the use of renewables considerably. The analysis of these policies and macro-scale model has forecasted that the UK is going to have a slow down economic growth due to the environmental pressure.

  13. Potential reciprocal effect between land use / land cover change and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daham, Afrah; Han, Dawei; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel

    2016-04-01

    Land use/land cover (LULC) activity influences climate change and one way to explore climate change is to analyse the change in LULC patterns. Modelling the Spatio-temporal pattern of LULC change requires the use of satellite remote sensing data and aerial photographs with different pre-processing steps. The aim of this research is to analyse the reciprocal effects of LUCC (Land Use and Cover Change) and the climate change on each other in the study area which covers part of Bristol, South Gloucestershire, Bath and Somerset in England for the period (1975-2015). LUCC is assessed using remote sensing data. Three sets of remotely sensed data, LanSAT-1 Multispectral Scanner (MSS) data obtained in (1975 and 1976), LanSAT-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) data obtained in (1984 and 1997), and LandSAT-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) acquired in (2003 and 2015), with a time span of forty years were used in the study. One of the most common problems in the satellite images is the presence of cloud covers. In this study, the cloud cover problem is handled using a novel algorithm, which is capable of reducing the cloud coverage in the classified images significantly. This study also examines a suite of possible photogrammetry techniques applicable to detect the change in LULC. At the moment photogrammertic techniques are used to derive the ground truth for supervised classification from the high resolution aerial photos which were provided by Ordnance Survey (contract number: 240215) and global mapper for the years in (2001 and 2014). After obtaining the classified images almost free of clouds, accuracy assessment is implemented with the derived classified images using confusion matrix at some ground truth points. Eight classes (Improved grassland, Built up areas and gardens, Arable and horticulture, Broad-leaved / mixed woodland, Coniferous woodland, Oceanic seas, Standing open water and reservoir, and Mountain; heath; bog) have been classified in the chosen study area. Also

  14. Climate change - global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

  15. Modelling the effects of climate change on the energy system-A case study of Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The overall objective of this work is to identify the effects of climate change on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. Changes in the future wind- and hydro-power resource potential, and changes in the heating and cooling demand are analysed to map the effects of climate change. The impact of climate change is evaluated with an energy system model, the MARKAL Norway model, to analyse the future cost optimal energy system. Ten climate experiments, based on five different global models and six emission scenarios, are used to cover the range of possible future climate scenarios and of these three experiments are used for detailed analyses. This study indicate that in Norway, climate change will reduce the heating demand, increase the cooling demand, have a limited impact on the wind power potential, and increase the hydro-power potential. The reduction of heating demand will be significantly higher than the increase of cooling demand, and thus the possible total direct consequence of climate change will be reduced energy system costs and lower electricity production costs. The investments in offshore wind and tidal power will be reduced and electric based vehicles will be profitable earlier. - Highlights: → Climate change will make an impact on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. → An impact is lower Norwegian electricity production costs and increased electricity export. → Climate change gives earlier profitable investments in electric based vehicles. → Climate change reduces investments in offshore wind and tidal power.

  16. Climate change governance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knieling, Joerg [HafenCity Univ. Hamburg (Germany). Urban Planning and Regional Development; Leal Filho, Walter (eds.) [HAW Hamburg (Germany). Research and Transfer Centre Applications of Life Science

    2013-07-01

    Climate change is a cause for concern both globally and locally. In order for it to be tackled holistically, its governance is an important topic needing scientific and practical consideration. Climate change governance is an emerging area, and one which is closely related to state and public administrative systems and the behaviour of private actors, including the business sector, as well as the civil society and non-governmental organisations. Questions of climate change governance deal both with mitigation and adaptation whilst at the same time trying to devise effective ways of managing the consequences of these measures across the different sectors. Many books have been produced on general matters related to climate change, such as climate modelling, temperature variations, sea level rise, but, to date, very few publications have addressed the political, economic and social elements of climate change and their links with governance. This book will address this gap. Furthermore, a particular feature of this book is that it not only presents different perspectives on climate change governance, but it also introduces theoretical approaches and brings these together with practical examples which show how main principles may be implemented in practice.

  17. Early effects of climate change: do they include changes in vector-borne disease?

    OpenAIRE

    Kovats, R. S.; Campbell-Lendrum, D H; McMichael, A. J.; Woodward, A; Cox, J. S.

    2001-01-01

    The world's climate appears now to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Shifts in the distribution and behaviour of insect and bird species indicate that biological systems are already responding to this change. It is well established that climate is an important determinant of the spatial and temporal distribution of vectors and pathogens. In theory, a change in climate would be expected to cause changes in the geographical range, seasonality (intra-annual variability), and in the incidence...

  18. Climate change and skin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balato, N; Ayala, F; Megna, M; Balato, A; Patruno, C

    2013-02-01

    Global climate appears to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Climate change can be caused by several factors that include variations in solar radiation received by earth, oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions, as well as human-induced alterations of the natural world. Many human activities, such as the use of fossil fuel and the consequent accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, land consumption, deforestation, industrial processes, as well as some agriculture practices are contributing to global climate change. Indeed, many authors have reported on the current trend towards global warming (average surface temperature has augmented by 0.6 °C over the past 100 years), decreased precipitation, atmospheric humidity changes, and global rise in extreme climatic events. The magnitude and cause of these changes and their impact on human activity have become important matters of debate worldwide, representing climate change as one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. Although many articles have been written based on observations and various predictive models of how climate change could affect social, economic and health systems, only few studies exist about the effects of this change on skin physiology and diseases. However, the skin is the most exposed organ to environment; therefore, cutaneous diseases are inclined to have a high sensitivity to climate. For example, global warming, deforestation and changes in precipitation have been linked to variations in the geographical distribution of vectors of some infectious diseases (leishmaniasis, lyme disease, etc) by changing their spread, whereas warm and humid environment can also encourage the colonization of the skin by bacteria and fungi. The present review focuses on the wide and complex relationship between climate change and dermatology, showing the numerous factors that are contributing to modify the incidence and the clinical pattern of many

  19. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century. 19 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

  20. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century

  1. Climate change - the impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This special dossier about the impacts of climate change is made of 6 contributions dealing with: the mitigation of climate effects and how to deal with them (Bertrand Reysset); how to dare and transmit (Laurent Billes-Garabedian); littoral risks, the Pas-de-Calais example (Julien Henique); extreme meteorological events and health impacts (Mathilde Pascal, Philippe Pirard, Yvon Motreff); Biodiversity and climate: the janus of global change (Robert Barbault, Jacques Weber); adapting agriculture to dryness and temperatures (Philippe Gate); Paris and the future heats of the year 2100 (Jean-Luc Salagnac, Julien Desplat, Raphaelle Kounkou-Arnaud)

  2. Climate change and compensation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint; Flanagan, Tine Bech

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a case for compensation of actual harm from climate change in the poorest countries. First, it is shown that climate change threatens to reverse the fight to eradicate poverty. Secondly, it is shown how the problems raised in the literature for compensation to some extent...... are based on misconceptions and do not apply to compensation of present actual harm. Finally, two arguments are presented to the effect that, in so far as developed countries accept a major commitment to mitigate climate change, they should also accept a commitment to address or compensate actual harm from...... climate change. The first argument appeals to the principle that if it is an injustice to cause risk of incurring harm in the future, then it is also an injustice to cause a similar harm now. The second argument appeals to the principle that if there is moral reason to reduce the risk of specific harms...

  3. Effects of Climate Change on Fishery Species in Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shenker, Jonathan M.

    2009-07-01

    Recreational and commercial fishery species in Florida and elsewhere are under serious stress from overfishing and many types of habitat and water quality degradation. Climate change may add to that stress by affecting an array of biological processes, although the range of some subtropical and tropical species may expand northward in the state. It is expected to trigger sea level rise and changes in hurricanes and precipitation levels in Florida and elsewhere. Perhaps the most significant impacts of climate change on fishery species will also associated with changes in seagrasses and mangroves that function as Essential Nursery Habitats. Seagrasses in estuarine and coastal areas are limited by water depth and light penetration. Increases in sea level and in precipitation-induced turbidity may restrict the extent of seagrass habitats and their role in fishery production. Expanded efforts to reduce nutrient and sediment loading into seagrass habitats may help minimize the potential loss of a valuable fish nursery habitat. Mangroves have also been affected by human activities, and are the subject of restoration efforts in many areas. Potential sea level rise may cause an expansion of mangrove habitats in the Everglades, at the expense of freshwater habitats. This potential tradeoff of habitats should be considered by the water flow and habitat restoration programs in the Everglades.

  4. Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment. A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change is a real and internationally recognised outcome of increased amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It will have effects over the next decades that are predictable with some level of certainty, but which will vary from place to place throughout New Zealand. The climate will also change from year to year and decade to decade due to natural processes. For example, some parts of the country often have dry summers and autumns when an El Nino climate pattern is present. Both natural fluctuations and human-induced climate changes need to be considered when developing adaptation plans and policies, rather than just 'greenhouse warming' effects on their own. Councils already address extreme weather events and climate variations as they develop plans and provide services. Climate change effects need also to be considered as part of these regulatory, assessment and planning activities. It is not necessary to develop a set of procedures for dealing separately with effects and impacts of climate change - they can be built into existing practices. Over time, climate change responses will involve iterative planning processes, keeping up-to-date with new information, monitoring changes, and reviewing the effectiveness of responses. The response to climate change involves international, national, regional, district and community consideration and action. The Guidance Manual aims to assist local government in working with its communities and making appropriate decisions.

  5. Assessment of long-term effects of climate change on biodiversity and vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changes in CO2 levels, temperature and precipitation patterns are expected to have important effects on natural ecosystems. In the title project, different approaches are combined to analyse these effects. Subproject 1 is directed to the effects of climate change on plant species distribution and diversity in Europe. Subproject 2 analyses the effects of climatic change and nitrogen (N) deposition on ecosystem dynamics. Subproject 3 integrates the two other subprojects by analysing the effects of climatic change and N deposition on ecosystem processes and plant species distribution on a regional level

  6. Climate Justice in Rural Southeastern United States: A Review of Climate Change Impacts and Effects on Human Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutierrez, Kristie S; LePrevost, Catherine E

    2016-02-01

    Climate justice is a local, national, and global movement to protect at-risk populations who are disproportionately affected by climate change. The social context for this review is the Southeastern region of the United States, which is particularly susceptible to climate change because of the geography of the area and the vulnerabilities of the inhabiting populations. Negative human health effects on variable and vulnerable populations within the Southeast region due to changing climate are concerning, as health threats are not expected to produce parallel effects among all individuals. Vulnerable communities, such as communities of color, indigenous people, the geographically isolated, and those who are socioeconomically disadvantaged and already experiencing poor environmental quality, are least able to respond and adapt to climate change. Focusing on vulnerable populations in the Southeastern United States, this review is a synthesis of the recent (2010 to 2015) literature-base on the health effects connected to climate change. This review also addresses local and regional mitigation and adaptation strategies for citizens and leaders to combat direct and indirect human health effects related to a changing climate. PMID:26848673

  7. Soil ecosystem functioning under climate change: plant species and community effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kardol, Paul [ORNL; Cregger, Melissa [ORNL; Campany, Courtney E [ORNL; Classen, Aimee T [ORNL

    2010-01-01

    Feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change depend on soil ecosystem dynamics. Soil ecosystems can directly and indirectly respond to climate change. For example, warming directly alters microbial communities by increasing their activity. Climate change may also alter plant community composition, thus indirectly altering the microbial communities that feed on their inputs. To better understand how climate change may directly and indirectly alter soil ecosystem functioning, we investigated old-field plant community and soil ecosystem responses to single and combined effects of elevated [CO2], warming, and water availability. Specifically, we collected soils at the plot level (plant community soils), and beneath dominant plant species (plant-specific soils). We used microbial enzyme activities and soil nematodes as indicators for soil ecosystem functioning. Our study resulted in two main findings: 1) Overall, while there were some interactions, water, relative to increases in [CO2] and warming, had the largest impact on plant community composition, soil enzyme activities, and soil nematodes. Multiple climate change factors can interact to shape ecosystems, but in this case, those interactions were largely driven by changes in water availability. 2) Indirect effects of climate change, via changes in plant communities, had a significant impact on soil ecosystem functioning and this impact was not obvious when looking at plant community soils. Climate change effects on enzyme activities and soil nematode abundance and community structure strongly differed between plant community soils and plant-specific soils, but also within plant-specific soils. In sum, these results indicate that accurate assessments of climate change impacts on soil ecosystem functioning require incorporating the concurrent changes in plant function and plant community composition. Climate change-induced shifts in plant community composition will likely modify or counteract the direct

  8. Climatic changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    are now ques-tioning this. Measurements as dykes will changes or cut off the spatial and func-tional coherence between the city structure and the sea. Questions regarding the status and the appropriation of these ‘new’ adaptive func-tions in landscapes and open urban spaces by ordinary people must...

  9. Potential Effects of Climate Change on Florida's Everglades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nungesser, M.; Saunders, C.; Coronado-Molina, C.; Obeysekera, J.; Johnson, J.; McVoy, C.; Benscoter, B.

    2015-04-01

    Restoration efforts in Florida's Everglades focus on preserving and restoring this unique wetland's natural landscape. Because most of the Everglades is a freshwater peatland, it requires surplus rainfall to remain a peatland. Restoration plans generally assume a stable climate, yet projections of altered climate over a 50-year time horizon suggest that this assumption may be inappropriate. Using a legacy regional hydrological model, we simulated combinations of a temperature rise of 1.5 °C, a ± 10 % change in rainfall, and a 0.46 m sea level rise relative to base conditions. The scenario of increased evapotranspiration and increased rainfall produced a slight increase in available water. In contrast, the more likely scenario of increased evapotranspiration and decreased rainfall lowered median water depths by 5-114 cm and shortened inundation duration periods by 5-45 %. Sea level rise increased stages and inundation duration in southern Everglades National Park. These ecologically significant decreases in water depths and inundation duration periods would greatly alter current ecosystems through severe droughts, peat loss and carbon emissions, wildfires, loss of the unique ridge and slough patterns, large shifts in plant and animal communities, and increased exotic species invasions. These results suggest using adaptive restoration planning, a method that explicitly incorporates large climatic and environmental uncertainties into long-term ecosystem restoration plans, structural design, and management. Anticipated water constraints necessitate alternative approaches to restoration, including maintaining critical landscapes and facilitating transitions in others. Accommodating these uncertainties may improve the likelihood of restoration success.

  10. Potential effects of climate change on Florida's Everglades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nungesser, M; Saunders, C; Coronado-Molina, C; Obeysekera, J; Johnson, J; McVoy, C; Benscoter, B

    2015-04-01

    Restoration efforts in Florida's Everglades focus on preserving and restoring this unique wetland's natural landscape. Because most of the Everglades is a freshwater peatland, it requires surplus rainfall to remain a peatland. Restoration plans generally assume a stable climate, yet projections of altered climate over a 50-year time horizon suggest that this assumption may be inappropriate. Using a legacy regional hydrological model, we simulated combinations of a temperature rise of 1.5 °C, a ± 10% change in rainfall, and a 0.46 m sea level rise relative to base conditions. The scenario of increased evapotranspiration and increased rainfall produced a slight increase in available water. In contrast, the more likely scenario of increased evapotranspiration and decreased rainfall lowered median water depths by 5-114 cm and shortened inundation duration periods by 5-45%. Sea level rise increased stages and inundation duration in southern Everglades National Park. These ecologically significant decreases in water depths and inundation duration periods would greatly alter current ecosystems through severe droughts, peat loss and carbon emissions, wildfires, loss of the unique ridge and slough patterns, large shifts in plant and animal communities, and increased exotic species invasions. These results suggest using adaptive restoration planning, a method that explicitly incorporates large climatic and environmental uncertainties into long-term ecosystem restoration plans, structural design, and management. Anticipated water constraints necessitate alternative approaches to restoration, including maintaining critical landscapes and facilitating transitions in others. Accommodating these uncertainties may improve the likelihood of restoration success. PMID:25549995

  11. Parliamentary role and relationship in effectively addressing climate change issues - Swaziland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, R.

    2011-01-15

    Climate change is defined as any long-term and significant change in the expected patterns of a specific region's average weather for an appropriately significant period of time. It is the result of several factors, including Earth?s dynamic processes, external forces, and more recently, human activity. External factors that shape climate include such processes as variations in solar radiation, deviations in Earth's orbit, and variations in the level of greenhouse gas concentrations. Evidence of climatic change taken from a variety of sources can, in turn, be used to reconstruct past climates. Most climate evidence is inferred from changes in key climate indicators, including vegetation, ice cores, dendrochronology, sea-level change, and glacial geology. Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental, social, and economic threats facing the planet today. In developing countries, Swaziland included, climate change will likely have a significant impact on the livelihoods and living conditions of the poor. It is a particular threat to the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and progress in sustainable development in Sub-Saharan Africa. Increasing temperatures and shifting rain patterns across Africa reduce access to food and create effects that impact regions, farming systems, households, and individuals in varying ways. Additional global changes, including changed trade patterns and energy policies, have the potential to exacerbate the negative effects of climate change on some of these systems and groups.

  12. Temperate mountain forest biodiversity under climate change: compensating negative effects by increasing structural complexity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronika Braunisch

    Full Text Available Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1 how species' occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2 to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3 whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species' occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated

  13. Climate Change Schools Project...

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinzey, Krista

    2010-01-01

    This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools Project…

  14. Climate changes your business

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Businesses face much bigger climate change costs than they realise. That is the conclusion of Climate Changes Your Business. The climate change risks that companies should be paying more attention to are physical risks, regulatory risks as well as risk to reputation and the emerging risk of litigation, says the report. It argues that the risks associated with climate change tend to be underestimated

  15. Climate Change Impacts and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Effects on U.S. Hydropower Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change will have potentially significant effects on hydropower generation due to changes in the magnitude and seasonality of river runoff and increases in reservoir evaporation. These physical impacts will in turn have economic consequences through both producer revenues ...

  16. Climate change effects on lowland stream flood regimes and riparian rich fen vegetation communities in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thodsen, Hans; Baattrup-Pedersen, Annette; Andersen, Hans Estrup;

    2016-01-01

    There is growing awareness that an intensification of the hydrological cycle associated with climate change in many parts of the world will have profound implications for river ecosystem structure and functions. In the present study we link an ensemble of regional climate model projections...... to a hydrological model with the aim to predict climate driven changes in flooding regimes in lowland riparian areas. Our specific aims were to 1) predict effects of climate change on flood frequencies and magnitudes in riparian areas by using an ensemble of six climate models and 2) combine the obtained...... predictions with the distribution of rich fen communities to explore whether these are likely to be subjected to increased flooding by a climate change induced increase in river runoff. We found that all regional climate models in the ensemble showed increases in mean annual runoff and that the increase...

  17. Climatic change and nuclear

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    One of the main priorities of the WWF is to increase the implementing of solutions relative to the greenhouse effect fight. In this framework the foundation published a study on the nuclear facing the climatic change problem. The following chapters are detailed: the nuclear and the negotiations on the climatic change; the nuclear close; the unrealistic hypothesis of the nuclear forecast; the nuclear facing other energy supplying options; supplying efficiency for heating, electric power, gas and renewable energies; the consumption efficiency facing the nuclear; the economical aspects; the deregulation effect; the political aspects; the nuclear AND the greenhouse effect. (A.L.B.)

  18. Effects of climatic changes on anisakid nematodes in polar regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rokicki, Jerzy

    2009-11-01

    Anisakid nematodes are common in Antarctic, sub-Antarctic, and Arctic areas. Current distributional knowledge of anisakids in the polar regions is reviewed. Climatic variables influence the occurrence and abundance of anisakids, directly influencing their free-living larval stages and also indirectly influencing their predominantly invertebrate (but also vertebrate) hosts. As these parasites can also be pathogenic for humans, the paucity of information available is a source of additional hazard. As fish are a major human dietary component in Arctic and Antarctic areas, and are often eaten without heat processing, a high risk of infection by anisakid larvae might be expected. The present level of knowledge, particularly relating to anisakid larval stages present in fishes, is far from satisfactory. Preliminary molecular studies have revealed the presence of species complexes. Contemporary climate warming is modifying the marine environment and may result in an extension of time during which anisakid eggs can persist and hatch, and of the time period during which newly hatched larvae remain viable. As a result there may be an increase in the extent of anisakid distribution. Continued warming will modify the composition of the parasitic nematode fauna of marine animals, due to changes in feeding habits, as the warming of the sea and any localised reduction in salinity (from freshwater runoff) can be expected to bring about changes in the species composition of pelagic and benthic invertebrates.

  19. The Effect of Climate change on Soil Organic Matter Decomposition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TÓTH, János Attila

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available In the last few decades the climate of Síkfkút ILTER Forest (Hungary became warmerand dryer. Due to the climate change the species composition of forest has been changing, and thetotal leaf litter production has been slightly decreasing. According to our long-term litter manipulationfield experiment, which is part of ILTER Detritus Input and Removal Treatments (DIRT Project, aftera 4-5 year treating period, at the No Litter, No Root and No Input treatments the soil organic C and Ncontent, the soil bacterial and fungal count, the soil pH, the soil enzyme activity, and soil respirationdecreased. Increased soil temperature raises soil respiration exponentially, and thus if the average soiltemperature increased by 2 oC at the dry Síkfkút site, soil respiration would increase by 22.1%. Thisincrease would be higher (29.9% at a wet site, such as Harvard Forest in the USA. Increasing soilrespiration can speed up global warming through a positive feedback mechanism.

  20. Climate change, agriculture and poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Hertel, Thomas W.; Rosch, Stephanie D

    2010-01-01

    Although much has been written about climate change and poverty as distinct and complex problems, the link between them has received little attention. Understanding this link is vital for the formulation of effective policy responses to climate change. This paper focuses on agriculture as a primary means by which the impacts of climate change are transmitted to the poor, and as a sector at...

  1. Evaluating the effect of climate change on areal reduction factors using regional climate model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jingwan; Sharma, Ashish; Johnson, Fiona; Evans, Jason

    2015-09-01

    Areal reduction factors (ARFs) are commonly used to transform point design rainfall to represent the average design rainfall for a catchment area. While there has been considerable attention paid in the research and engineering communities to the likely changes in rainfall intensity in future climates, the issue of changes to design areal rainfall has been largely ignored. This paper investigates the impact of climate change on ARFs. A new methodology for estimating changes in ARFs is presented. This method is used to assess changes in ARFs in the greater Sydney region using a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM). ARFs under present (1990-2009) and future (2040-2059) climate conditions were derived and compared for annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) from 50% to 5% for durations ranging from 1 h to 120 h. The analysis shows two main trends in the future changes in ARFs. For the shortest duration events (1-h) the ARFs are found to increase which implies that these events will tend to have a larger spatial structure in the future than the current climate. In contrast, storms with durations between 6 and 72 h are likely to have decreased ARFs in the future, suggesting a more restricted spatial coverage of storms under a warming climate. The extent of the decrease varies with event frequency and catchment size. The largest decreases are found for large catchments and rare events. Although the results here are based on a single RCM and need to be confirmed in future work with multiple models, the framework that is proposed will be useful for future studies considering changes in the areal extent of rainfall extremes.

  2. CLIMATE CHANGE, Change International Negociations?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Xiaosheng

    2009-01-01

    @@ Climate change is one of key threats to human beings who have to deal with.According to Bali Action Plan released after the 2007 Bali Climate Talk held in Indonesia,the United Nations Framework on Climate Change(UNFCCC) has launched a two-year process to negotiate a post-2012 climate arrangement after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 and the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference will seal a final deal on post-2012 climate regime in December,2009.For this,the United Nation Chief Ban Ki Moon called 2009"the year ofclimate change".

  3. Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Surface Runoff in the Luan River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sidong Zeng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff changes is the focus of climate change and hydrological research. This paper presents an integrated method employing the Budyko-based Fu model, hydrological modeling, and climate elasticity approaches to separate the effects of the two driving factors on surface runoff in the Luan River basin, China. The Budyko-based Fu model and the double mass curve method are used to analyze runoff changes during the period 1958~2009. Then two types of hydrological models (the distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool model and the lumped SIMHYD model and seven climate elasticity methods (including a nonparametric method and six Budyko-based methods are applied to estimate the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff change. The results show that all quantification methods are effective, and the results obtained by the nine methods are generally consistent. During the study period, the effects of climate change on runoff change accounted for 28.3~46.8% while those of human activities contributed with 53.2~71.7%, indicating that both factors have significant effects on the runoff decline in the basin, and that the effects of human activities are relatively stronger than those of climate change.

  4. The effects of changing solar activity on climate: contributions from palaeoclimatological studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Engels Stefan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Natural climate change currently acts in concert with human-induced changes in the climate system. To disentangle the natural variability in the climate system and the human-induced effects on the global climate, a critical analysis of climate change in the past may offer a better understanding of the processes that drive the global climate system. In this review paper, we present palaeoclimatological evidence for the past influence of solar variability on Earth’s climate, highlighting the effects of solar forcing on a range of timescales. On a decadal timescale, instrumental measurements as well as historical records show the effects of the 11-year Schwabe cycle on climate. The variation in total solar irradiance that is associated with a Schwabe cycle is only ~1 W m−2 between a solar minimum and a maximum, but winter and spring temperatures on the Northern Hemisphere show a response even to this small-scale variability. There is a large body of evidence from palaeoclimatic reconstructions that shows the influence of solar activity on a centennial to millennial timescale. We highlight a period of low solar activity starting at 2800 years before present when Europe experienced a shift to colder and wetter climate conditions. The spatial pattern of climate change that can be recognized in the palaeoclimatological data is in line with the suggested pattern of climate change as simulated by climate models. Millennial-scale climate oscillations can be recognized in sediment records from the Atlantic Ocean as well as in records of lake-level fluctuations in southeastern France. These oscillations coincide with variation in 14C production as recognized in the atmospheric 14C record (which is a proxy-record for solar activity, suggesting that Earth’s climate is sensitive to changes in solar activity on a millennial timescale as well.

  5. Long-term effects of climate change on carbon budgets of forests in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kramer, K.; Mohren, G.M.J.

    2001-01-01

    The EU-funded project Long-term regional effects of climate change on European forests: impact assessment and consequenses for carbon budgets (LTEEF-II, ENV4-CT97-0577) aimed to: i) assess likely responses of European forests to climate change; ii) quantify the fluxes of carbon and water between the

  6. Effective and responsible teaching of climate change in Earth Science-related disciplines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Z. P.; Greenhough, B. J.

    2009-04-01

    topic to cover within the Earth Science-related curricula due to wide-ranging, and sometimes polarised, existing attitudes of students and levels of existing partial and sometimes flawed knowledge in addition to the troublesome concepts that need to be grasped. These issues highlight the responsibility and challenge inherent in teaching the subject of climate change and the importance of consideration of integrating sustainability issues with the core science of climate change. The talk will include a discussion of strategies and resources for the effective teaching of climate change topics for a range of levels and discipline backgrounds.

  7. Climate Change Effects on Plant Ecosystems – Genetic Resources for Future Barley Breeding

    OpenAIRE

    Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz

    2014-01-01

    Climate Change Effects on Plant Ecosystems – Genetic Resources for Future Barley Breeding. A growing population and a considerable increase in living standards worldwide are increasing the demand on the primary production. At the same time, climate change is projected to lower the primary production due to increases in the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide ([CO2]) and ozone ([O3]), rising temperatures and extreme climate events such as floods, storms and heatwaves. These prediction...

  8. The effect of the thermal component change on regional climate indices in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joksimović Marko M.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The study of climate changes is most often based on the analysis of time series of temperature and precipitation in urban areas and the increase in the emission of gases having a greenhouse effect. On the other hand, the selection of representative and relevant stations and comprehensive analysis of climate indicators lead to better and more exact assessments on climate changes at the regional level. In order to connect climate changes with agricultural, biological, socio-economic and tourism databases, the paper deals with the dynamic analysis of changes in thermal component expressed through the values of regional climate indices in four climatological stations with different geographical positions in Serbia. There are significant differences between the two time series data (1961-1990 and 1991-2013 on temperature and humidity, precipitation, insolation and wind speed. However, after using the climatic indices as a tool for assessing climate changes, the results of the study suggest the relative influence of the thermal component on the change of climate indices, with a slight increase in the index of significance for human activities. Relying on the results of this alternative approach to the study of climate changes, the fact remains that the climate is not fixed but highly variable factor that should be taken into consideration in terms of monitoring, evaluation and management of the area. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 176008 i br. III47007

  9. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Berrien

    The DLR Institute of Planetary Exploration has proposed a novel design for a space instrument accommodated on a small satellite bus (SSB) that is dedicated to the detection of inner earth objects (IEOs) from a low earth orbit (LEO). The instrument requires high sensitivity to detect asteroids with a limiting magnitude of equal or larger than 18.5m (V-Band) and astrometric accuracy of 1 arcsec (1). This requires a telescope aperture greater than 400cm2, high image stability, detector with high quantum efficiency (peak∼90). The instrument design is based on a novel focal plane consisting of four Electron-Multiplying CCDs (EMCCD). These detectors operate at a high frame rate of nominally 5fps and very low effective readout noise (¡2e rms), in order to compensate the spacecraft's pointing jitter. The telescope optics is based on an off-axis anastigmatic design (TMA). A reflective Schmidt-type corrector plate enables a corrected 22 field of view to be achieved by the fast F/3.4 telescope with near diffraction-limited performance. The absence of center obscurations or spiders in combination with an accessible intermediate field plane and exit pupil allow for efficient stray light mitigation. To accommodate the passive thermal stabilization scheme and the necessary structural stability, HB-Cesic R was selected as material for the telescope structure and mirrors. This new composite ceramic material is highly promising for space telescope applications. The electronics design comprises high speed signal and data processing chains for on-board acquisition, filtering, accumulation and compression of the CCD data. One of the most important tasks of the on-board processing software is to implement the image stabilization function. For this purpose the images are oversampled, guide stars are automatically identified and tracked, and the individual short-exposure images are shifted and co-added with sub-pixel accuracy. During this process, spurious events as cosmic ray hits or

  10. The Effect of Climate Change on Ozone Depletion through Changes in Stratospheric Water Vapour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirk-Davidoff, Daniel B.; Hintsa, Eric J.; Anderson, James G.; Keith, David W.

    1999-01-01

    Several studies have predicted substantial increases in Arctic ozone depletion due to the stratospheric cooling induced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. But climate change may additionally influence Arctic ozone depletion through changes in the water vapor cycle. Here we investigate this possibility by combining predictions of tropical tropopause temperatures from a general circulation model with results from a one-dimensional radiative convective model, recent progress in understanding the stratospheric water vapor budget, modelling of heterogeneous reaction rates and the results of a general circulation model on the radiative effect of increased water vapor. Whereas most of the stratosphere will cool as greenhouse-gas concentrations increase, the tropical tropopause may become warmer, resulting in an increase of the mean saturation mixing ratio of water vapor and hence an increased transport of water vapor from the troposphere to the stratosphere. Stratospheric water vapor concentration in the polar regions determines both the critical temperature below which heterogeneous reactions on cold aerosols become important (the mechanism driving enhanced ozone depletion) and the temperature of the Arctic vortex itself. Our results indicate that ozone loss in the later winter and spring Arctic vortex depends critically on water vapor variations which are forced by sea surface temperature changes in the tropics. This potentially important effect has not been taken into account in previous scenarios of Arctic ozone loss under climate change conditions.

  11. Effect of climatic change on surface environments in the typical region of Horqin Sandy Land

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    The town of Agura,a typical region in Horqin Sandy Land,was selected as the study area in this paper.Using 12 remote sensing images and climatic data from the past 20 years,the effects of climate change on surface environments were analyzed.The impact indices of climatic factors,along with their corresponding ranks,were used to characterize the responses of different types of surface environments to climate change.Results show that in the past 20 years,the surface environments of the study area have been deteriorating.Furthermore,there is a positive relationship between the changes in surface environments and those in climatic factors.Various climatic factors influence surface environments in different ways and at different levels.The most sensitive factor is relative humidity,followed by precipitation and evaporation.Overall,moisture is the key factor that affects the changes in surface environments of arid and semi-arid areas.

  12. Cumulative effects of planned industrial development and climate change on marine ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Cathryn Clarke Murray; Selina Agbayani; Ban, Natalie C.

    2015-01-01

    With increasing human population, large scale climate changes, and the interaction of multiple stressors, understanding cumulative effects on marine ecosystems is increasingly important. Two major drivers of change in coastal and marine ecosystems are industrial developments with acute impacts on local ecosystems, and global climate change stressors with widespread impacts. We conducted a cumulative effects mapping analysis of the marine waters of British Columbia, Canada, under different sce...

  13. Current Climate Variability & Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diem, J.; Criswell, B.; Elliott, W. C.

    2013-12-01

    Current Climate Variability & Change is the ninth among a suite of ten interconnected, sequential labs that address all 39 climate-literacy concepts in the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences. The labs are as follows: Solar Radiation & Seasons, Stratospheric Ozone, The Troposphere, The Carbon Cycle, Global Surface Temperature, Glacial-Interglacial Cycles, Temperature Changes over the Past Millennium, Climates & Ecosystems, Current Climate Variability & Change, and Future Climate Change. All are inquiry-based, on-line products designed in a way that enables students to construct their own knowledge of a topic. Questions representative of various levels of Webb's depth of knowledge are embedded in each lab. In addition to the embedded questions, each lab has three or four essential questions related to the driving questions for the lab suite. These essential questions are presented as statements at the beginning of the material to represent the lab objectives, and then are asked at the end as questions to function as a summative assessment. For example, the Current Climate Variability & Change is built around these essential questions: (1) What has happened to the global temperature at the Earth's surface, in the middle troposphere, and in the lower stratosphere over the past several decades?; (2) What is the most likely cause of the changes in global temperature over the past several decades and what evidence is there that this is the cause?; and (3) What have been some of the clearly defined effects of the change in global temperature on the atmosphere and other spheres of the Earth system? An introductory Prezi allows the instructor to assess students' prior knowledge in relation to these questions, while also providing 'hooks' to pique their interest related to the topic. The lab begins by presenting examples of and key differences between climate variability (e.g., Mt. Pinatubo eruption) and

  14. Examining the Effectiveness of Climate Change Frames in the Face of a Climate Change Denial Counter-Frame.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCright, Aaron M; Charters, Meghan; Dentzman, Katherine; Dietz, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Prior research on the influence of various ways of framing anthropogenic climate change (ACC) do not account for the organized ACC denial in the U.S. media and popular culture, and thus may overestimate these frames' influence in the general public. We conducted an experiment to examine how Americans' ACC views are influenced by four promising frames for urging action on ACC (economic opportunity, national security, Christian stewardship, and public health)-when these frames appear with an ACC denial counter-frame. This is the first direct test of how exposure to an ACC denial message influences Americans' ACC views. Overall, these four positive frames have little to no effect on ACC beliefs. But exposure to an ACC denial counter-frame does significantly reduce respondents' belief in the reality of ACC, belief about the veracity of climate science, awareness of the consequences of ACC, and support for aggressively attempting to reduce our nation's GHG emissions in the near future. Furthermore, as expected by the Anti-Reflexivity Thesis, exposure to the ACC denial counter-frame has a disproportionate influence on the ACC views of conservatives (than on those of moderates and liberals), effectively activating conservatives' underlying propensity for anti-reflexivity. PMID:26621098

  15. Climate Change and Poverty Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Simon

    2011-08-15

    Climate change will make it increasingly difficult to achieve and sustain development goals. This is largely because climate effects on poverty remain poorly understood, and poverty reduction strategies do not adequately support climate resilience. Ensuring effective development in the face of climate change requires action on six fronts: investing in a stronger climate and poverty evidence base; applying the learning about development effectiveness to how we address adaptation needs; supporting nationally derived, integrated policies and programmes; including the climate-vulnerable poor in developing strategies; and identifying how mitigation strategies can also reduce poverty and enable adaptation.

  16. The Health Effects of Climate Change in the WHO European Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanja Wolf

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The evidence of observed health effects as well as projections of future health risks from climate variability and climate change is growing. This article summarizes new knowledge on these health risks generated since the IPCC fourth assessment report (AR4 was published in 2007, with a specific focus on the 53 countries comprising the WHO European Region. Many studies on the effects of weather, climate variability, and climate change on health in the European Region have been published since 2007, increasing the level of certainty with regard to already known health threats. Exposures to temperature extremes, floods, storms, and wildfires have effects on cardiovascular and respiratory health. Climate- and weather-related health risks from worsening food and water safety and security, poor air quality, and ultraviolet radiation exposure as well as increasing allergic diseases, vector- and rodent-borne diseases, and other climate-sensitive health outcomes also warrant attention and policy action to protect human health.

  17. Climate change and local pollution effects. An integrated approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Few studies on measures for mitigation of damage caused by man-made emissions to the environment have tried to consider all major effects. We illustrate the importance of an integrated approach by estimating costs and benefits of a proposed energy saving program for Hungary, originally designed to reduce CO2 emissions. The dominant benefit of implementing the program is likely to be reduced health damage from local pollutants. Also reduced costs of material damage and to a lesser extent vegetation damage contribute to make the net benefit considerable. Compared to the reduction in these local and regional effects, the benefits from reducing greenhouse gases are likely to be minor. Since local effects in general occur much earlier after measures have been implemented than effects of increased emissions of greenhouse gases, inclusion of local effects makes evaluation of climate policy less dependent on the choice of discount rate. In our opinion, similar results are likely for many measures originally designed to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases particularly in some areas in developing countries with high local pollution levels. Main uncertainties in the analysis, e.g. in the relationships between damage and pollution level, are discussed. 72 refs

  18. Interdecadal change in Western Pacific Subtropical High and climatic effects

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Western North Pacific Subtropical High is a very important atmospheric circulation system influencing the summer climate over eastern China. Its interdecadal change is analyzed in this study.There is a significant decadal shift in about 1979/1980. Since 1980, the Western North Pacific Subtropical High has enlarged, intensified, and shifted southwestward. This change gives rise to an anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly over the region from the South China Sea to western Pacific and thus causes wet anomalies over the Yangtze River valley. During the summers of 1980-1999, the precipitation is 63.9 mm above normal, while during 1958-1979 it is 27.3 mm below normal. The difference is significant at the 99% confidence level as a t-test shown. The southwestward expanding of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High also leads to a significant warming in southern China,during 1980-1999 the summer mean temperature is 0.37C warmer than that of the period 1958-1979.The strong warming is primarily due to the clearer skies associated with the stronger downward air motion as the Western North Pacific Subtropical High expanding to the west and controlling southern China. It is also found that the relative percentage of tropical cyclones in the regions south of 20°N is decreasing since the 1980s, but in the regions north of 20°N that is increasing at the same time. The Western North Pacific Subtropical High responds significantly to sea surface temperature of the tropical eastern Pacific with a lag of one-two seasons and simultaneously to sea surface temperature of the tropical Indian Ocean. The changes in the sea surface temperatures are mainly responsible for the interdecadal variability of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High.

  19. Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Trolle, Dennis; Børgesen, Christen Duus; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Jeppesen, Erik; Jensen, Karsten H.

    2016-04-01

    Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes on hydrology for a 486 km2 catchment in Denmark and to evaluate the sensitivity of the results to the choice of hydrological model. Three hydrological models, NAM, SWAT and MIKE SHE, were constructed and calibrated using similar methods. Each model was forced with results from four climate models and four land use scenarios. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice remained the dominant factor for mean discharge, low and high flows as well as hydraulic head at the end of the century.

  20. Potential effect of future climate changes on productivity of selected crops in Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brzóska Barbara

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Potential effect of future climate changes on productivity of selected crops in Poland. Future projections of selected climate indices have been used to assess potential effects of climate changes on productivity of selected crops in Poland. CMIP5 global climate models’ results for the future period (2006-2035 and historical one (1981-2010 are used in the study. Models predict decrease in count of days with extreme low temperatures and increase in count of days with extreme high temperatures. An increase in the number of days with very heavy precipitation is also predicted. Not all climate change effects have negative impact on crop productivity in Poland but all of them confirm requirements to put into practice mitigation and adaptation strategies for Poland’s agriculture.

  1. Effects of Climate Variability and Change on Groundwater Resources of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurdak, Jason S.; Hanson, Randall T.; Green, Timothy R.

    2009-01-01

    Groundwater is an important part of the global fresh water supply and is affected by climate. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists are working with local, State, Federal, and international partners to understand how the availability and sustainability of groundwater resources in the United States will be affected by climate variability and change. This fact sheet describes climate variability and change, important groundwater resources of the Nation, and how USGS research is helping to answer critical questions about the effects of climate on groundwater.

  2. Social Impacts of Climate Change in Brazil: A municipal level analysis of the effects of recent and future climate change on income, health and inequality

    OpenAIRE

    Lykke E. Andersen; Román, Soraya; Verner, Dorte

    2010-01-01

    The paper uses data from 5,507 municipalities in Brazil to estimate the relationships between climate and income as well as climate and health, and then uses the estimated relationships to gauge the effects of past and future climate change on income levels and life expectancy in each of these municipalities. The simulations indicate that climate change over the past 50 years has tended to cause an overall drop in incomes in Brazil of about four percent, with the initially poorer and hotter m...

  3. Effect of climate change on stormwater characteristics and treatment efficiencies of stormwater retention ponds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharma, Anitha Kumari; Vezzaro, Luca; Birch, Heidi; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the potential effect of climate changes on stormwater characteristics and treatment efficiency of retention ponds. This was performed by using an integrated model for two scenarios representing the current situations and a climate change scenario with...... pond removal performance with an overall increase in the particulate concentrations discharged to the environment. The changes in the two scenarios affected only the particulate phase, so no major impact on toxicity due to stormwater discharge is expected due to climate change. Further research is...

  4. Effects of climate change on yield potential of wheat and maize crops in the European Union

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolf, J. [Department of Theoretical Production Ecology, Wageningen Agricultural University, Wageningen (Netherlands); Van Diepen, C.A. [DLO the Winand Staring Centre, Wageningen (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    Yields of winter wheat, silage maize and grain maize in the main arable areas of the European Union (EU) were calculated with a simulation model, WOFOST, using historical weather data and average soil characteristics. The sensitivity of the model to individual weather variables was determined. Subsequent analyses were made using climate change scenarios with and without the direct effects of increased atmospheric CO{sub 2}. The impact of crop management in a changed climate was also assessed. The various climate change scenarios used appear to yield considerably different changes in yield, both for each location and for the EU as a whole. 4 figs., 2 tabs., 6 refs.

  5. Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 2014 Fact sheets Features Commentaries 2014 Multimedia Contacts Climate change and health Fact sheet Reviewed June 2016 ... in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution. Climate change Over the last 50 years, human activities – ...

  6. Assessing Land Management Change Effects on Forest Carbon and Emissions Under Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, B. E.

    2014-12-01

    There has been limited focus on fine-scale land management change effects on forest carbon under future environmental conditions (climate, nitrogen deposition, increased atmospheric CO2). Forest management decisions are often made at the landscape to regional levels before analyses have been conducted to determine the potential outcomes and effectiveness of such actions. Scientists need to evaluate plausible land management actions in a timely manner to help shape policy and strategic land management. Issues of interest include species-level adaptation to climate, resilience and vulnerability to mortality within forested landscapes and regions. Efforts are underway to improve land system model simulation of future mortality related to climate, and to develop and evaluate plausible land management options that could help mitigate or avoid future die-offs. Vulnerability to drought-related mortality varies among species and with tree size or age. Predictors of species ability to survive in specific environments are still not resolved. A challenge is limited observations for fine-scale (e.g. 4 km2) modeling, particularly physiological parameters. Uncertainties are primarily associated with future land management and policy decisions. They include the interface with economic factors and with other ecosystem services (biodiversity, water availability, wildlife habitat). The outcomes of future management scenarios should be compared with business-as-usual management under the same environmental conditions to determine the effects of management changes on forest carbon and net emissions to the atmosphere. For example, in the western U.S., land system modeling and life cycle assessment of several management options to reduce impacts of fire reduced long-term forest carbon gain and increased carbon emissions compared with business-as-usual management under future environmental conditions. The enhanced net carbon uptake with climate and reduced fire emissions after thinning

  7. Testing for effects of climate change on competitive relationships and coexistence between two bird species

    OpenAIRE

    Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Durant, Joël M.; Fowler, Mike S.; Matthysen, Erik; Adriaensen, Frank; Jonzén, Niclas; Chan, Kung-Sik; Liu, Hai; De Laet, Jenny; SHELDON, BEN C.; Visser, Marcel E; André A Dhondt

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is expected to have profound ecological effects, yet shifts in competitive abilities among species are rarely studied in this context. Blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and great tits (Parus major) compete for food and roosting sites, yet coexist across much of their range. Climate change might thus change the competitive relationships and coexistence between these two species. Analysing four of the highest-quality, long-term datasets available on these species across Europe, we ...

  8. Recent Advances in Understanding the Effects of Climate Change on Coral Reefs

    OpenAIRE

    Hoey, Andrew S.; Emily Howells; Johansen, Jacob L.; Hobbs, Jean-Paul A.; Vanessa Messmer; Dominique M. McCowan; Wilson, Shaun K.; Pratchett, Morgan S.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is one of the greatest threats to the persistence of coral reefs. Sustained and ongoing increases in ocean temperatures and acidification are altering the structure and function of reefs globally. Here, we summarise recent advances in our understanding of the effects of climate change on scleractinian corals and reef fish. Although there is considerable among-species variability in responses to increasing temperature and seawater chemistry, changing temperature regimes are like...

  9. White Paper: Estimating Salinity Effects Due to Climate Change on the Georgia and South Carolina Coasts

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This record is an unpublished white paper describing estimated effects of climate change of salinity on the coastal waterways of Georgia and South Carolina

  10. Climate change: a primer

    OpenAIRE

    Khanna, Dr. Perminder; Aneja, Reenu

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Climate has inherent variability manifesting in gradual changes in temperature, precipitation and sea-level rise. The paper entitled “Climate Change: A Primer” attempts to analyse the policy response and adaptation to the need to address climate change at the international and domestic level both. Intense variations in climate would increase the risk of abrupt and non-linear changes in the ecosystem, impacting their function, biodiversity and productivity. The policy initiations and ...

  11. Predicting the effects of climate change on marine communities and the consequences for fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jennings, Simon; Brander, Keith

    2010-01-01

    predicted for the community under the same climate scenario. The main weakness of the community approach is that the methods predict abundance and production by size-class rather than taxonomic group, and society would be particularly concerned if climate driven changes had a strong effect on the relative...... production of fishable and non-fishable species in the community. The main strength of the community approach is that it provides widely applicable ‘null’ models for assessing the biological effects of climate change and a baseline for model comparisons.......Climate effects on the structure and function of marine communities have received scant attention. The few existing approaches for predicting climate effects suggest that community responses might be predicted from the responses of component populations. These approaches require a very complex...

  12. Testing for effects of climate change on competitive relationships and coexistence between two bird species

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Durant, Joel M.; Fowler, Mike S.; Matthysen, Erik; Adriaensen, Frank; Jonzen, Niclas; Chan, Kung-Sik; Liu, Hai; De Laet, Jenny; Sheldon, Ben C.; Visser, Marcel E.; Dhondt, Andre A.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is expected to have profound ecological effects, yet shifts in competitive abilities among species are rarely studied in this context. Blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and great tits (Parus major) compete for food and roosting sites, yet coexist across much of their range. Climate chan

  13. Long-term effects of climate change on Europe's water resources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Domnisoru, A.

    2006-01-01

    Climate variations from last century show a global warming trend. Evidence from the past reveals that the anthropogenic greenhouse effect caused changes in climate parameters (temperature, precipitation and evaporation) at the European scale as well. On long-term this might have essential impact on

  14. Climate and Change

    OpenAIRE

    Roger S. Pulwarty

    2011-01-01

    A presentation about the basics of climate change - the science, the impacts, and the consequences. The focus is on water and the Caribbean in particular but the information is general. It includes information about climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation.

  15. EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COCOA PRODUCTION IN ONDO STATE, NIGERIA

    OpenAIRE

    Oseni, Joseph Olumide

    2011-01-01

    The paper examined the effects of climate change on cocoa production in Ondo State, Nigeria. When talking about climate change and its effects, it is important to make adjustments and interventions in order to manage the losses or take advantages of opportunities presented by it. These adjustments or interventions are known as adaptation (IPCC, 2001). Cocoa has been the second largest foreign exchange earner after crude oil and has also contributed significantly to infrastructural development...

  16. IMPACT OF GREENHOUSE EFFECT GASES ON CLIMATIC CHANGES. MEASUREMENT INDICATORS AND FORECAST MODELS

    OpenAIRE

    Valentina Vasile; Mariana Balan

    2008-01-01

    The existence of a heavier layer of greenhouse effect gases at the level of theentire planet triggered significant climate changes. The paper intends to present the mainenvironmental indicators elaborated by various specialised international bodies, and themodels used by different governmental or non-governmental European bodies for studying theimpact of greenhouse effect gas emissions on climatic changes or economic development.Also, a comparative analysis was made about the performance indi...

  17. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2014-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that...... enable adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach...... is based on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant...

  18. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2013-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that...... enable adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach...... is based on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant...

  19. Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hudecz, Adriána

    The European Union ROADEX Project 1998 – 2012 was a trans-national roads co-operation aimed at developing ways for interactive and innovative management of low traffic volume roads throughout the cold climate regions of the Northern Periphery Area of Europe. Its goals were to facilitate co......-operation and research into the common problems of the Northern Periphery. This report is an output of the ROADEX “Implementing Accessibility” project (2009-2012). It gives a summary of the results of research into adaptation measures to combat climate change effects on low volume roads in the Northern...... Periphery. The research was carried out between January 2000 and March 2012. One of the biggest challenges that mankind has to face is the prospect of climate change resulting from emissions of greenhouse gases. These gases trap energy in the atmosphere and cause global surface temperatures to rise. This...

  20. Climate change and amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corn, P. S.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species

  1. Simulation of landscape disturbances and the effect of climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baker, W.L.

    1993-04-01

    Altering the natural disturbance regime of a landscape produces changes in the structure of that landscape as the landscape adjusts to the new disturbance regime. A computer simulation model was designed to enable analyses of the longterm changes to be expected in landscapes as their disturbance regime changes. The model, DISPATCH, is the first dynamic spatial simulation model built around a geographical information system (GIS). The model also includes a new set of programs, the r.le programs, that is the first set of programs designed for calculating landscape structure measures within a GIS. The DISPATCH model was used, to analyze the effects of human alterations of disturbance regimes and global change on landscape structure. Landscapes do not adjust quickly to these alterations based on available data. Landscapes subjected to warming or to longterm fire suppression experience a decline in patch richness, Shannon diversity, the amount of edge and contrast, but an increase in distance between patches, angular second moment (texture measure) and patch size. In contrast, landscapes subjected to cooling, the short-term effects of fire suppression, fragmentation, or traditional prescribed burning tend to respond with increasing richness, Shannon diversity, edge, and contrast, but declining distance, angular second moment, and size. The pattern of response is different at different scales, with important implications for species.

  2. Global warming and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A panel discussion was held to discuss climate change. Six panelists made presentations that summarized ozone depletion and climate change, discussed global responses, argued against the conventional scientific and policy dogmas concerning climate change, examined the effects of ultraviolet radiation on phytoplankton, examined the effects of carbon taxes on Canadian industry and its emissions, and examined the political and strategic aspects of global warming. A question session followed the presentations. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the six presentations

  3. The uncertainty of future water supply adequacy in megacities: Effects of population growth and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alarcon, T.; Garcia, M. E.; Small, D. L.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

    2013-12-01

    Providing water to the expanding population of megacities, which have over 10 million people, with a stressed and aging water infrastructure creates unprecedented challenges. These challenges are exacerbated by dwindling supply and competing demands, altered precipitation and runoff patterns in a changing climate, fragmented water utility business models, and changing consumer behavior. While there is an extensive literature on the effects of climate change on water resources, the uncertainty of climate change predictions continues to be high. This hinders the value of these predictions for municipal water supply planning. The ability of water utilities to meet future water needs will largely depend on their capacity to make decisions under uncertainty. Water stressors, like changes in demographics, climate, and socioeconomic patterns, have varying degrees of uncertainty. Identifying which stressors will have a greater impact on water resources, may reduce the level of future uncertainty for planning and managing water utilities. Within this context, we analyze historical and projected changes of population and climate to quantify the relative impacts of these two stressors on water resources. We focus on megacities that rely primarily on surface water resources to evaluate (a) population growth pattern from 1950-2010 and projected population for 2010-2060; (b) climate change impact on projected climate change scenarios for 2010-2060; and (c) water access for 1950-2010; projected needs for 2010-2060.

  4. Climatic Changes Effects On Spectral Vegetation Indices For Forested Areas Analysis From Satellite Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate-induced changes at the land surface may in turn feed back on the climate itself through changes in soil moisture, vegetation, radiative characteristics, and surface-atmosphere exchanges of water vapor. Thresholding based on biophysical variables derived from time trajectories of satellite data is a new approach to classifying forest land cover via remote . sensing .The input data are composite values of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Classification accuracies are function of the class, comparison method and season of the year. The aim of the paper is forest biomass assessment and land-cover changes analysis due to climatic effects

  5. Climate change and coasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The investigation of climatic processes and behaviour examines the effects of climatic changes on human beings and the surrounding environment. The authors discuss, in a wide-subject perspective, the regional impacts of the greenhouse effect, increase of the sea level, and changed conditions of both precipitation and wind using the North and Baltic Sea as examples. In this effort, questions dealing with changes of water level, motion and (disturbance) of the sea and morphodynamic in the coastal apron, in reference to requirements on a future protection of the shore, are handled. In addition, not only the aspects of ecosystem-orientated adaption in the strip of land between the continent northern islands 'Wattenmeer' and ground landscape (Bodenlandschaft) are taken into consideration, but also the impact of these on human beings and their interest to use the coastal regions. (orig.). 102 figs., 9 tabs

  6. The effect of climate change and adaptation policy on agricultural production in eastern Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kahsay, Goytom Abraha; Hansen, Lars Gårn

    We estimate the production function for agricultural output in Eastern Africa incorporating climate variables disaggregated into growing and non-growing seasons. We find a substantial negative effect of within growing season variance of precipitation. We simulate predicted climate change...... the potential loss from predicted climate change....... for the region and find a resulting output reduction of between 1.2% and 4.5%. We also find substantial potential for mitigating the effects of within growing season precipitation variability through conventional technologies such as flexible planting and rainwater harvesting that substantially exceeds...

  7. The detection of climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiffer, Robert A.; Unninayar, Sushel

    1991-01-01

    The greenhouse effect is accepted as an undisputed fact from both theoretical and observational considerations. In Earth's atmosphere, the primary greenhouse gas is water vapor. The specific concern today is that increasing concentrations of anthropogenically introduced greenhouse gases will, sooner or later, irreversibly alter the climate of Earth. Detecting climate change has been complicated by uncertainties in historical observations and measurements. Thus, the primary concern for the GEDEX project is how can climate change and enhanced greenhouse effects be unambiguously detected and quantified. Specifically examined are the areas of: Earth surface temperature; the free atmosphere (850 millibars and above); space-based measurements; measurement uncertainties; and modeling the observed temperature record.

  8. Habitat-specific effects of climate change on a low-mobility Arctic spider species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bowden, Joseph James; Hansen, Rikke Reisner; Olsen, Kent;

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Terrestrial ecosystems are heterogeneous habitat mosaics of varying vegetation types that are differentially affected by climate change. Arctic plant communities, for example, are changing faster in moist habitats than in dry habitats and abiotic changes like snowmelt vary locally among...... habitats. Such differences between habitats may influence the effects of climate changes on animals and this could be especially true in low-mobility species. Suitable model systems to test this idea, however, are rare. We examined how proxies of reproductive success (body size, juvenile/female ratios...... of individuals. We found significant main effects of snowmelt and habitat on sex ratio with the proportion of females decreasing significantly in response to later snowmelt only in the mesic sites. Effects of climate change may be masked by habitat differences and have implications for future range changes...

  9. The Health Effects of Climate Change: A Survey of Recent Quantitative Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anil Markandya

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In recent years there has been a large scientific and public debate on climate change and its direct as well as indirect effects on human health. In particular, a large amount of research on the effects of climate changes on human health has addressed two fundamental questions. First, can historical data be of some help in revealing how short-run or long-run climate variations affect the occurrence of infectious diseases? Second, is it possible to build more accurate quantitative models which are capable of predicting the future effects of different climate conditions on the transmissibility of particularly dangerous infectious diseases? The primary goal of this paper is to review the most relevant contributions which have directly tackled those questions, both with respect to the effects of climate changes on the diffusion of non-infectious and infectious diseases, with malaria as a case study. Specific attention will be drawn on the methodological aspects of each study, which will be classified according to the type of quantitative model considered, namely time series models, panel data and spatial models, and non-statistical approaches. Since many different disciplines and approaches are involved, a broader view is necessary in order to provide a better understanding of the interactions between climate and health. In this respect, our paper also presents a critical summary of the recent literature related to more general aspects of the impacts of climate changes on human health, such as: the economics of climate change; how to manage the health effects of climate change; the establishment of Early Warning Systems for infectious diseases.

  10. BUSINESS CYCLE EFFECTS ON CONCERN ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE: THE CHILLING EFFECT OF RECESSION

    OpenAIRE

    Kahn, Matthew E.; Kotchen, Matthew J

    2011-01-01

    This paper uses two different sources of data to investigate the association between the business cycle — measured with unemployment rates — and public concern about climate change. Building on recent research that finds internet search terms to be useful predictors of health epidemics and economic activity, we find that an increase in a state's unemployment rate decreases Google searches for "global warming" and increases searches for "unemployment," and that the effect differs according to ...

  11. Our changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The author presents an overview of the changing climate. Attention is focused on the following: meteorology; weather; climate anomalies; changes in atmospheric composition and global warming; ozone; mathematical models; and climate and politics. In its conclusion, it asks researchers to stay out of a game in which, ultimately, neither science nor politics stands to gain anything

  12. Mathematics of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Halstadtrø, Ida

    2013-01-01

    Mathematics in climate research is rarely mentioned in the everyday conversations or in the media when talking about climate changes. This thesis therefore focus on the central role mathematics plays in climate research, through describing the different models used in predicting future weather and climate. In Chapter 1, a general introduction to climate, its components and feedbacks, and today's status is given. Chapter 2 concentrates on the dynamical models represented by ordinary differenti...

  13. The Health Effects of Climate Change: A Survey of Recent Quantitative Research

    OpenAIRE

    Anil Markandya; Aline Chiabai; Matteo Manera; Margherita Grasso

    2012-01-01

    In recent years there has been considerable scientific and public debate on climate change and its direct and indirect effects on human health. According to the World Health Organization (WHO, 2006), some 2.5 million people die every year from non-infectious diseases directly attributable to environmental factors such as air pollution, stressful conditions in the workplace, exposure to chemicals such as lead, and exposure to environmental tobacco smoke. Changes in climatic conditions and clim...

  14. Effects on asthma and respiratory allergy of Climate change and air pollution

    OpenAIRE

    D’Amato, Gennaro; Vitale, Carolina; Martino, Annamaria; Viegi, Giovanni; Lanza, Maurizia; Molino, Antonio; Sanduzzi, Alessandro; Vatrella, Alessandro; Annesi-Maesano, Isabella; D’Amato, Maria

    2015-01-01

    The major changes to our world are those involving the atmosphere and the climate, including global warming induced by anthropogenic factors, with impact on the biosphere and human environment. Studies on the effects of climate changes on respiratory allergy are still lacking and current knowledge is provided by epidemiological and experimental studies on the relationship between allergic respiratory diseases, asthma and environmental factors, like meteorological variables, airborne allergens...

  15. EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON POULTRY PRODUCTION IN ONDO STATE, NIGERIA

    OpenAIRE

    G.B. Adesiji; S.T. Baba; I.S. Tyabo

    2013-01-01

    The study assesses the effects of climate change on poultry production in Ondo State, Nigeria. Eighty three (83) poultry farmers were interviewed to elicit relevant information in line with the objectives of the study. Descriptive statistics and inferential statistical tools were used for data analysis. Findings revealed that majority (93.3%) of the respondents are aware of climate change, 78%, 98.8% and 86.7% of the respondents agreed that temperature fluctuation, increased in sunshine inten...

  16. Assessment of long-term effects of climate change on biodiversity and vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of this project was to analyze the effects of climatic change on plant species diversity and ecosystem functioning. The direct effects of climatic change on plant species diversity are analyzed using a species based probabilistic Model (EUROMOVE) that relates the probability of occurrence of ca 1400 European plant species to climatic variables as the mean temperature of the coldest month, the effective temperature sum, the annual precipitation, the annual potential and actual evapotranspiration, the length of the growing season, and the mean growing season temperature. The indirect effects of raised C02 levels and increased temperatures on ecosystem functioning and the consequences of these indirect effects for plant diversity are analyzed by combining a mechanistic simulation model (NUCOM) with regression models. NUCOM predicts the effects of environmental changes on dominant plant species composition and ecosystem variables. The predicted ecosystem variables are linked to plant species diversity of subordinate species by regression models, using Ellenberg indices for N availability, soil acidity, soil moisture, and light intensity. With these two approaches, the consequences of climatic change scenarios (IPCC Baseline A, IPCC Stabilization 450) and N deposition scenarios (reduced, constant) are analyzed for Europe (EUROMOVE) and part of the Netherlands (NUCOM). The results showed that the direct effects of climatic change may have large impact on plant species diversity and distribution. The indirect effects of climatic change on plant diversity appeared minor but effects of changes in soil moisture are not included. Other environmental changes like eutrofication and human impact have large effect on ecosystem variables and plant species diversity. Reductions in nitrogen emission have a positive effect but take time to become apparent. 49 refs

  17. Climate change and its effect on world food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In February of 1972 earth-orbiting artificial satellites revealed the existence of a greatly increased area of the snow and ice cover of the north polar cap as compared to all previous years of space age observations. Some scientists believe that this may have presaged the onset of the dramatic climate anomalies of 1972 that brought far-reaching adversities to the world's peoples. Moreover, there is mounting evidence that the bad climate of 1972 may be the forerunner of a long series of less favorable agricultural crop years that lie ahead for most world societies. Thus widespread food shortages threaten just at the same time that world populations are growing to new highs. Indeed, less favorable climate may be the new global norm. The Earth may have entered a new 'little ice age'. Perhaps this future period will not be so extreme as that around 1700 AD, but it seems likely, at least, to be a cooler period resembling the hemispheric climatic regimes of the period from 1880-1920. (author)

  18. Climate Change Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jepma, Catrinus J.; Munasinghe, Mohan; Bolin, Foreword By Bert; Watson, Robert; Bruce, James P.

    1998-03-01

    There is increasing scientific evidence to suggest that humans are gradually but certainly changing the Earth's climate. In an effort to prevent further damage to the fragile atmosphere, and with the belief that action is required now, the scientific community has been prolific in its dissemination of information on climate change. Inspired by the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Second Assessment Report, Jepma and Munasinghe set out to create a concise, practical, and compelling approach to climate change issues. They deftly explain the implications of global warming, and the risks involved in attempting to mitigate climate change. They look at how and where to start action, and what organization is needed to be able to implement the changes. This book represents a much needed synopsis of climate change and its real impacts on society. It will be an essential text for climate change researchers, policy analysts, university students studying the environment, and anyone with an interest in climate change issues. A digestible version of the IPCC 1995 Economics Report - written by two of IPCC contributors with a Foreword by two of the editors of Climate Change 1995: Economics of Climate Change: i.e. has unofficial IPCC approval Focusses on policy and economics - important but of marginal interest to scientists, who are more likely to buy this summary than the full IPCC report itself Has case-studies to get the points across Separate study guide workbook will be available, mode of presentation (Web or book) not yet finalized

  19. Climate change effects on shallow lakes: design and preliminary results of a cross-European climate gradient mesocosm experiment

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Landkildehus, F.; Søndergaard, M.; Beklioglu, M.; Adrian, R.; Angeler, D.G.; Hejzlar, Josef; Papastergiadou, E.; Zingel, P.; Çakiroğlu, A.I.; Scharfenberger, U.; Drakare, S.; Nõges, T.; Šorf, Michal; Stefanidis, K.; Tavşanoğlu, Ü.N.; Trigal, C.; Mahdy, A.; Papadaki, C.; Tuvikene, L.; Larsen, S.E.; Kernan, M.; Jeppesen, E.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 63, č. 2 (2014), s. 71-89. ISSN 1736-602X EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 244121 - REFRESH Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : climate change * nutrient enrichment * water level effects * macroecology * REFRESH project * macrophytes * metabolism Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology

  20. Cumulative effects of planned industrial development and climate change on marine ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available With increasing human population, large scale climate changes, and the interaction of multiple stressors, understanding cumulative effects on marine ecosystems is increasingly important. Two major drivers of change in coastal and marine ecosystems are industrial developments with acute impacts on local ecosystems, and global climate change stressors with widespread impacts. We conducted a cumulative effects mapping analysis of the marine waters of British Columbia, Canada, under different scenarios: climate change and planned developments. At the coast-wide scale, climate change drove the largest change in cumulative effects with both widespread impacts and high vulnerability scores. Where the impacts of planned developments occur, planned industrial and pipeline activities had high cumulative effects, but the footprint of these effects was comparatively localized. Nearshore habitats were at greatest risk from planned industrial and pipeline activities; in particular, the impacts of planned pipelines on rocky intertidal habitats were predicted to cause the highest change in cumulative effects. This method of incorporating planned industrial development in cumulative effects mapping allows explicit comparison of different scenarios with the potential to be used in environmental impact assessments at various scales. Its use allows resource managers to consider cumulative effect hotspots when making decisions regarding industrial developments and avoid unacceptable cumulative effects. Management needs to consider both global and local stressors in managing marine ecosystems for the protection of biodiversity and the provisioning of ecosystem services.

  1. Adaptation of farming practices could buffer effects of climate change on northern prairie wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voldseth, R.A.; Johnson, W.C.; Guntenspergen, G.R.; Gilmanov, T.; Millett, B.V.

    2009-01-01

    Wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region of North America are vulnerable to climate change. Adaptation of farming practices to mitigate adverse impacts of climate change on wetland water levels is a potential watershed management option. We chose a modeling approach (WETSIM 3.2) to examine the effects of changes in climate and watershed cover on the water levels of a semi-permanent wetland in eastern South Dakota. Land-use practices simulated were unmanaged grassland, grassland managed with moderately heavy grazing, and cultivated crops. Climate scenarios were developed by adjusting the historical climate in combinations of 2??C and 4??C air temperature and ??10% precipitation. For these climate change scenarios, simulations of land use that produced water levels equal to or greater than unmanaged grassland under historical climate were judged to have mitigative potential against a drier climate. Water levels in wetlands surrounded by managed grasslands were significantly greater than those surrounded by unmanaged grassland. Management reduced both the proportion of years the wetland went dry and the frequency of dry periods, producing the most dynamic vegetation cycle for this modeled wetland. Both cultivated crops and managed grassland achieved water levels that were equal or greater than unmanaged grassland under historical climate for the 2??C rise in air temperature, and the 2??C rise plus 10% increase in precipitation scenarios. Managed grassland also produced water levels that were equal or greater than unmanaged grassland under historical climate for the 4??C rise plus 10% increase in precipitation scenario. Although these modeling results stand as hypotheses, they indicate that amelioration potential exists for a change in climate up to an increase of 2??C or 4??C with a concomitant 10% increase in precipitation. Few empirical data exist to verify the results of such land-use simulations; however, adaptation of farming practices is one possible mitigation

  2. Climate change effects on extreme flows of water supply area in Istanbul: utility of regional climate models and downscaling method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kara, Fatih; Yucel, Ismail

    2015-09-01

    This study investigates the climate change impact on the changes of mean and extreme flows under current and future climate conditions in the Omerli Basin of Istanbul, Turkey. The 15 regional climate model output from the EU-ENSEMBLES project and a downscaling method based on local implications from geophysical variables were used for the comparative analyses. Automated calibration algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdel-ning (HBV) model for the study catchment using observed daily temperature and precipitation. The calibrated HBV model was implemented to simulate daily flows using precipitation and temperature data from climate models with and without downscaling method for reference (1960-1990) and scenario (2071-2100) periods. Flood indices were derived from daily flows, and their changes throughout the four seasons and year were evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. All climate models strongly underestimate precipitation while downscaling improves their underestimation feature particularly for extreme events. Depending on precipitation input from climate models with and without downscaling the HBV also significantly underestimates daily mean and extreme flows through all seasons. However, this underestimation feature is importantly improved for all seasons especially for spring and winter through the use of downscaled inputs. Changes in extreme flows from reference to future increased for the winter and spring and decreased for the fall and summer seasons. These changes were more significant with downscaling inputs. With respect to current time, higher flow magnitudes for given return periods will be experienced in the future and hence, in the planning of the Omerli reservoir, the effective storage and water use should be sustained. PMID:26293893

  3. A population facing climate change: joint influences of Allee effects and environmental boundary geometry

    CERN Document Server

    Roques, Lionel; Berestycki, Henri; Kretzschmar, André

    2009-01-01

    As a result of climate change, many populations have to modify their range to follow the suitable areas - their "climate envelope" - often risking extinction. During this migration process, they may face absolute boundaries to dispersal, because of external environmental factors. Consequently, not only the position, but also the shape of the climate envelope can be modified. We use a reaction-diffusion model to analyse the effects on population persistence of simultaneous changes in the climate envelope position and shape. When the growth term is of logistic type, we show that extinction and persistence are principally conditioned by the species mobility and the speed of climate change, but not by the shape of the climate envelope. However, with a growth term taking an Allee effect into account, we find a high sensitivity to the variations of the shape of the climate envelope. In this case, the species which have a high mobility, although they could more easily follow the migration of the climate envelope, wo...

  4. Asking about climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise

    2014-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that climate change will strongly affect people across the globe. Likely impacts of and adaptations to climate change are drawing the attention of researchers from many disciplines. In adaptation research focus is often on perceptions of climate change...... and on vulnerability and adaptation strategies in a particular region or community. But how do we research the ways in which people experience changing climatic conditions, the processes of decision-making, the actual adaptation strategies carried out and the consequences of these for actors living and dealing...... with climate change? On the basis of a literature review of all articles published in Global Environmental Change between 2000 and 2012 that deal with human dimensions of climate change using qualitative methods this paper provides some answers but also raises some concerns. The period and length of fieldwork...

  5. Climate Change and Project Risk: A Mutual Effect in Case of Electrical Tansmission Line Installation Project

    OpenAIRE

    Shwetank Parihar; Chandan Bhar

    2015-01-01

    The paper is based on the establishment of mutual effect of project risk and environmental/climatic changes. According to the studies present very few authors have studied the effect of these two phenomenons. The study collects the literature review on the works of various authors and decides upon the criteria for measurement of these project risk factors and climate/environmental factors. Then the study presents a statistical approach for development of relationship between the two. A survey...

  6. Climate change and water conservation effects on water availability and vegetation patterns in a stream valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Yasmijn; de Graaf, Myrjam; van Ek, Remco; Witte, Jan-Philip; Aerts, Rien; Bierkens, Marc; van Bodegom, Peter

    2014-05-01

    Climate change predictions include an increase in global temperature and changes in precipitation patterns at spatial and seasonal scale. The seasonal changes for temperate Europe include a decrease in the amount of precipitation in summer and an increase in winter. This may lead to an increased flooding risk in winter and early spring, while in summer the drought risk is likely to increase. These hydrological changes can have profound effects on vegetation patterns and development, especially for groundwater dependent vegetation. Water conservation measures can be used to combat the potential negative effects of these changes. Conservation measures can include aquifer storage and recovery, damming streams, or creating retention zones for flooding events. The implementation of these measures can contribute to preserving groundwater dependent vegetation patterns. In this study we simulated with an integrated surface- and groundwater model and a climate robust vegetation model, the implementation of water conservation measures in a stream valley catchment in the Netherlands. We modeled the effects on water availability and on vegetation patterns. The conservation measures were simulated for the current climate and for two climate scenarios, with a temperature increase of two degrees Celsius and either an increase or decrease in precipitation. Water tables were increased in stream valley zones, where groundwater dependent vegetation dominates, to ensure suitable abiotic conditions. The results showed that the water conservation measures increased the water table considerably in a future climate, compared to no conservation measures. Groundwater dependent vegetation was positively stimulated with these new hydrological conditions. With these models we successfully tested the effectiveness of the water conservation measures on water availability and vegetation patterns to ameliorate the negative effects of climate change. We therefore argue that water conservation

  7. The potential effects of climate change on amphibian distribution, range fragmentation and turnover in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Ren-Yan; Kong, Xiao-Quan; Huang, Min-Yi; Varela, Sara; Ji, Xiang

    2016-01-01

    Many studies predict that climate change will cause species movement and turnover, but few have considered the effect of climate change on range fragmentation for current species and/or populations. We used MaxEnt to predict suitable habitat, fragmentation and turnover for 134 amphibian species in China under 40 future climate change scenarios spanning four pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5) and two time periods (the 2050s and 2070s). Our results show that climate change may cause a major shift in spatial patterns of amphibian diversity. Amphibians in China would lose 20% of their original ranges on average; the distribution outside current ranges would increase by 15%. Suitable habitats for over 90% of species will be located in the north of their current range, for over 95% of species in higher altitudes (from currently 137-4,124 m to 286-4,396 m in the 2050s or 314-4,448 m in the 2070s), and for over 75% of species in the west of their current range. Also, our results predict two different general responses to the climate change: some species contract their ranges while moving westwards, southwards and to higher altitudes, while others expand their ranges. Finally, our analyses indicate that range dynamics and fragmentation are related, which means that the effects of climate change on Chinese amphibians might be two-folded. PMID:27547522

  8. Testing for effects of climate change on competitive relationships and coexistence between two bird species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenseth, Nils Chr; Durant, Joël M; Fowler, Mike S; Matthysen, Erik; Adriaensen, Frank; Jonzén, Niclas; Chan, Kung-Sik; Liu, Hai; De Laet, Jenny; Sheldon, Ben C; Visser, Marcel E; Dhondt, André A

    2015-05-22

    Climate change is expected to have profound ecological effects, yet shifts in competitive abilities among species are rarely studied in this context. Blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and great tits (Parus major) compete for food and roosting sites, yet coexist across much of their range. Climate change might thus change the competitive relationships and coexistence between these two species. Analysing four of the highest-quality, long-term datasets available on these species across Europe, we extend the textbook example of coexistence between competing species to include the dynamic effects of long-term climate variation. Using threshold time-series statistical modelling, we demonstrate that long-term climate variation affects species demography through different influences on density-dependent and density-independent processes. The competitive interaction between blue tits and great tits has shifted in one of the studied sites, creating conditions that alter the relative equilibrium densities between the two species, potentially disrupting long-term coexistence. Our analyses show that long-term climate change can, but does not always, generate local differences in the equilibrium conditions of spatially structured species assemblages. We demonstrate how long-term data can be used to better understand whether (and how), for instance, climate change might change the relationships between coexisting species. However, the studied populations are rather robust against competitive exclusion. PMID:25904659

  9. Beyond yields: Climate change effects on specialty crop quality and agroecological management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selena Ahmed

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Climate change is impacting the sustainability of food systems through shifts in natural and human dimensions of agroecosystems that influence farmer livelihoods, consumer choices, and food security. This paper highlights the need for climate studies on specialty crops to focus not only on yields, but also on quality, as well as the ability of agroecological management to buffer climate effects on quality parameters. Crop quality refers to phytonutrient and secondary metabolite profiles and associated health and sensory properties that influence consumer buying decisions. Through two literature reviews, we provide examples of specialty crops that are vulnerable to climate effects on quality and examples of climate-resilient agroecological strategies. A range of specialty crops including fruits, vegetables, tree nuts, stimulants, and herbs were identified to respond to climate variables with changes in quality. The review on climate-resilient strategies to mitigate effects on crop quality highlighted a major gap in the literature. However, agricultural diversification emerged as a promising strategy for climate resilience more broadly and highlights the need for future research to assess the potential of diversified agroecosystems to buffer climate effects on crop quality. We integrate the concepts from our literature review within a socio-ecological systems framework that takes into account feedbacks between crop quality, consumer responses, and agroecosystem management. The presented framework is especially useful for two themes in agricultural development and marketing, nutrition-sensitive agriculture and terroir, for informing the design of climate-change resilient specialty crop systems focused on management of quality and other ecosystem services towards promoting environmental and human wellbeing.

  10. Effect of local weather on butterfly flight behaviour, movement, and colonization: significance for dispersal under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cormont, A.; Malinowska, A.H.; Kostenko, O.; Radchuk, V.; Hemerik, L.; Wallis de Vries, M.F.; Verboom, J.

    2011-01-01

    Recent climate change is recognized as a main cause of shifts in geographical distributions of species. The impacts of climate change may be aggravated by habitat fragmentation, causing regional or large scale extinctions. However, we propose that climate change also may diminish the effects of frag

  11. Assessing the recent climate change effects on Southern Carpathians permafrost

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popescu, Razvan; Vespremeanu-Stroe, Alfred; Cruceru, Nicolae; Pop, Olimpiu

    2014-05-01

    Most of the rock glaciers from Southern Carpathians (SC) are relict or inactive in the present. A few cases of active or complex (active only across their upper parts) rock glaciers are supposed to exist in Retezat Massif (Vespremeanu-Stroe et al., 2012), but recent growth of vegetation (especially Pynus mugo) on their fronts arises the hypothesis of a contemporary inactivation trend. The present work aims to evaluate how the climate oscillations from the last 70 years impacted SC permafrost. Rock glaciers feedback was assessed using permafrost creep measurements (on two rock glaciers from Retezat Massif) and estimations of the vegetation age installed on the rock glaciers fronts. We assessed the main climatic indices for the alpine area, with a focus on the cold snow free interval (SFI; autumn and early winter) which is the most critical period for permafrost existence as revealed by its correlations with the multiannual variability of the bottom temperature of snow during late winter (BTS) and with the permafrost temperature. We assessed the magnitude of SFI by calculating the freezing index (°Ch) at several locations from SC. The oscillation of the freezing index during the last 70 years was possible using air temperature from high meteorological stations by establishing a relation between ground surface temperatures (GST) monitored in numerous sites from SC and air temperature. The main findings indicate a recent climate warming, since late 1970s, who initiated a gradual rock glaciers inactivation which speeds up in the last decade (2003 - 2012) due to unprecedented low freezing indices. These are supported by the low creep values in the median and terminal parts of monitored rock glaciers comparing with the permafrost rich upper parts and by the young ages of Pynus mugo shrubs (few decades) which colonize the rock glaciers fronts.

  12. Effective Teacher Practice on the Plausibility of Human-Induced Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niepold, F.; Sinatra, G. M.; Lombardi, D.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change education programs in the United States seek to promote a deeper understanding of the science of climate change, behavior change and stewardship, and support informed decision making by individuals, organizations, and institutions--all of which are summarized under the term 'climate literacy.' The ultimate goal of climate literacy is to enable actors to address climate change, both in terms of stabilizing and reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, but also an increased capacity to prepare for the consequences and opportunities of climate change. However, the long-term nature of climate change and the required societal response involve the changing students' ideas about controversial scientific issues which presents unique challenges for educators (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2010; Sinatra & Mason, 2008). This session will explore how the United States educational efforts focus on three distinct, but related, areas: the science of climate change, the human-climate interaction, and using climate education to promote informed decision making. Each of these approaches are represented in the Atlas of Science Literacy (American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2007) and in the conceptual framework for science education developed at the National Research Council (NRC) in 2012. Instruction to develop these fundamental thinking skills (e.g., critical evaluation and plausibility reappraisal) has been called for by the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) (Achieve, 2013), an innovative and research based way to address climate change education within the decentralized U.S. education system. However, the promise of the NGSS is that students will have more time to build mastery on the subjects, but the form of that instructional practice has been show to be critical. Research has show that effective instructional activities that promote evaluation of evidence improve students' understanding and acceptance toward the scientifically accepted model of human

  13. Our Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newhouse, Kay Berglund

    2007-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses how global warming makes the leap from the headlines to the classroom with thought-provoking science experiments. To teach her fifth-grade students about climate change, the author starts with a discussion of the United States' local climate. They extend this idea to contrast the local climate with others,…

  14. Stop the climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book tries to answer today's main environmental questions relative to the climatic change: how our massive petroleum and coal consumption has led to a greenhouse effect? What will happen tomorrow when Chinese and Indian people will reach the same energy consumption levels as people of western countries? Is it too late to reverse the trend? If solar energy is the long-term solution, what can we do in the meantime? The author presents the conditions we must fulfill to keep the Earth in a good environmental condition: 1 - a brief story of energy; 2 - the climatic changes and their secrets; 3 - the greenhouse effect: necessary for life but worrying for the future; 4 - the energy demand and the stakes; 2 - fossil fuels: abundance or shortage? 6 - can we fight against greenhouse gases? 7 - the nuclear energy (reactors and wastes management); 8 - the renewable energies: a necessary contribution at the century scale and the unique answer at the millennium scale; 9 - the time of main choices is not so far; 10 - two questions (energy demand and climatic change) and a unique answer (sustainable development). (J.S.)

  15. Combating the effects of climatic change on forests by mitigation strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dieter Matthias

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Forests occur across diverse biomes, each of which shows a specific composition of plant communities associated with the particular climate regimes. Predicted future climate change will have impacts on the vulnerability and productivity of forests; in some regions higher temperatures will extend the growing season and thus improve forest productivity, while changed annual precipitation patterns may show disadvantageous effects in areas, where water availability is restricted. While adaptation of forests to predicted future climate scenarios has been intensively studied, less attention was paid to mitigation strategies such as the introduction of tree species well adapted to changing environmental conditions. Results We simulated the development of managed forest ecosystems in Germany for the time period between 2000 and 2100 under different forest management regimes and climate change scenarios. The management regimes reflect different rotation periods, harvesting intensities and species selection for reforestations. The climate change scenarios were taken from the IPCC's Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES. We used the scenarios A1B (rapid and successful economic development and B1 (high level of environmental and social consciousness combined with a globally coherent approach to a more sustainable development. Our results indicate that the effects of different climate change scenarios on the future productivity and species composition of German forests are minor compared to the effects of forest management. Conclusions The inherent natural adaptive capacity of forest ecosystems to changing environmental conditions is limited by the long life time of trees. Planting of adapted species and forest management will reduce the impact of predicted future climate change on forests.

  16. Effects of climate change on timber supply and possible management responses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potential effects of climate change on Pacific Northwest forests include increases in net primary production of some high-elevation or high-latitude forests due to temperature increases; reduced net primary production or tree mortality due to increased water stress or failure to meet chilling requirements; and increased risk of damage from insects and fires. The net effects of climate change will vary depending on the species involved, current environmental conditions, and the nature, magnitude, and rate of climate change. Risks are likely to differ substantially for regeneration, young established forests, and mature established forests. Decisions about responses have to be made in the face of considerable uncertainty about future climate, resources, and market conditions. A proactive option involves developing flexible, adaptive approaches to forest management that serve to reduce future risk. Strategic decisions could include decisions about land purchases or sales based on assessments of risk of impact from climate change. Selection of species least vulnerable to potential climate change, increased investment in fire control and pest management in vulnerable areas, and other operational decisions can be made. Timing of actions will be important, and a substantial body of information is required as a basis for making informed decisions, some of which is already available. 8 refs

  17. EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON POULTRY PRODUCTION IN ONDO STATE, NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.B. Adesiji

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The study assesses the effects of climate change on poultry production in Ondo State, Nigeria. Eighty three (83 poultry farmers were interviewed to elicit relevant information in line with the objectives of the study. Descriptive statistics and inferential statistical tools were used for data analysis. Findings revealed that majority (93.3% of the respondents are aware of climate change, 78%, 98.8% and 86.7% of the respondents agreed that temperature fluctuation, increased in sunshine intensity and global warming has a negative effects on poultry production, 72.4% of the respondents agreed that prices of feed grains are usually high in hot and dry seasons which may affect cost of production and number of birds to raise for egg and meat production in the farm, 73.5% of the respondents agreed that climate change has effect on feed grain availability, this implies that high temperature and low rainfall are climatic factors that affect general grain harvest, their supply to the market and ultimately cost of poultry production. the findings further revealed that 94% of the respondents agreed that climate change affects egg and meat production pattern and 95.2% of the respondents agreed that moist climatic conditions encouraged the distribution and development of diseases. Infrential statistics shows that there is a significant relationship between respondents' socio-economic characteristics and perception of poultry farmers on effects of climate change on poultry production since p > 0.05 (r = 0.454, p= 0.001, the findings also shows that there is a significant relationship between socio-economic characteristics of respondents and their level of awareness of climate change since the p > 0.05 (r = 0.652, p = 0.001. it is recomended extension agents and other development agencies need to educate the poultry farmers more about the effects posed by climate change on poultry production and intensify awareness campaign to poultry farmers on how to reduce

  18. Climate change: effects on the ecological basis for reindeer husbandry in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moen, Jon

    2008-06-01

    This paper examines potential effects of predicted climate changes on the forage conditions during both summer and winter for semidomesticated reindeer in Sweden. Positive effects in summer ranges include higher plant productivity and a longer growing season, while negative effects include increased insect harassment. Forage quality may change in both positive and negative ways. An increase in shrubs and trees in alpine heaths is also likely. A warmer climate means shorter winters, which will have positive effects for the survival of reindeer. However, warmer and wetter weather may also result in increased probabilities of ice-crust formations, which strongly decrease forage availability. A warmer climate with higher forest productivity will also likely reduce lichen availability through competitive interactions. Adaptations to these changes will include maintaining a choice of grazing sites in both summer and winter. However, this capacity may already be severely limited because of other forms of land use. PMID:18686511

  19. Making a Change: The Effects of the Leadership Role on School Climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pepper, Kaye; Thomas, Lisa Hamilton

    2002-01-01

    This autoethnography provides insights into the experiences of a first-year elementary school principal that led to a change in leadership style from an authoritarian style to a transformational leader. Discusses changes in the school to a more positive climate that had a more positive effect on learning and working environments. (Author/LRW)

  20. Coevolution and the Effects of Climate Change on Interacting Species

    OpenAIRE

    Northfield, Tobin D.; Ives, Anthony R.

    2013-01-01

    Background Recent studies suggest that environmental changes may tip the balance between interacting species, leading to the extinction of one or more species. While it is recognized that evolution will play a role in determining how environmental changes directly affect species, the interactions among species force us to consider the coevolutionary responses of species to environmental changes. Methodology/Principle Findings We use simple models of competition, predation, and mutualism to or...

  1. Observed and predicted effects of climate change on species abundance in protected areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Alison; Ausden, Malcolm; Dodd, Andrew M.; Bradbury, Richard B.; Chamberlain, Dan E.; Jiguet, Frédéric; Thomas, Chris D.; Cook, Aonghais S. C. P.; Newson, Stuart E.; Ockendon, Nancy; Rehfisch, Mark M.; Roos, Staffan; Thaxter, Chris B.; Brown, Andy; Crick, Humphrey Q. P.; Douse, Andrew; McCall, Rob A.; Pontier, Helen; Stroud, David A.; Cadiou, Bernard; Crowe, Olivia; Deceuninck, Bernard; Hornman, Menno; Pearce-Higgins, James W.

    2013-12-01

    The dynamic nature and diversity of species' responses to climate change poses significant difficulties for developing robust, long-term conservation strategies. One key question is whether existing protected area networks will remain effective in a changing climate. To test this, we developed statistical models that link climate to the abundance of internationally important bird populations in northwestern Europe. Spatial climate-abundance models were able to predict 56% of the variation in recent 30-year population trends. Using these models, future climate change resulting in 4.0°C global warming was projected to cause declines of at least 25% for more than half of the internationally important populations considered. Nonetheless, most EU Special Protection Areas in the UK were projected to retain species in sufficient abundances to maintain their legal status, and generally sites that are important now were projected to be important in the future. The biological and legal resilience of this network of protected areas is derived from the capacity for turnover in the important species at each site as species' distributions and abundances alter in response to climate. Current protected areas are therefore predicted to remain important for future conservation in a changing climate.

  2. NPOESS, Essential Climates Variables and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsythe-Newell, S. P.; Bates, J. J.; Barkstrom, B. R.; Privette, J. L.; Kearns, E. J.

    2008-12-01

    Advancement in understanding, predicting and mitigating against climate change implies collaboration, close monitoring of Essential Climate Variable (ECV)s through development of Climate Data Record (CDR)s and effective action with specific thematic focus on human and environmental impacts. Towards this end, NCDC's Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) Program Office developed Climate Long-term Information and Observation system (CLIO) for satellite data identification, characterization and use interrogation. This "proof-of-concept" online tool provides the ability to visualize global CDR information gaps and overlaps with options to temporally zoom-in from satellite instruments to climate products, data sets, data set versions and files. CLIO provides an intuitive one-stop web site that displays past, current and planned launches of environmental satellites in conjunction with associated imagery and detailed information. This tool is also capable of accepting and displaying Web-based input from Subject Matter Expert (SME)s providing a global to sub-regional scale perspective of all ECV's and their impacts upon climate studies. SME's can access and interact with temporal data from the past and present, or for future planning of products, datasets/dataset versions, instruments, platforms and networks. CLIO offers quantifiable prioritization of ECV/CDR impacts that effectively deal with climate change issues, their associated impacts upon climate, and this offers an intuitively objective collaboration and consensus building tool. NCDC's latest tool empowers decision makers and the scientific community to rapidly identify weaknesses and strengths in climate change monitoring strategies and significantly enhances climate change collaboration and awareness.

  3. A simple approach to distinguish land-use and climate-change effects on watershed hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomer, M.D.; Schilling, K.E.

    2009-01-01

    Impacts of climate change on watershed hydrology are subtle compared to cycles of drought and surplus precipitation (PPT), and difficult to separate from effects of land-use change. In the US Midwest, increasing baseflow has been more attributed to increased annual cropping than climate change. The agricultural changes have led to increased fertilizer use and nutrient losses, contributing to Gulf of Mexico hypoxia. In a 25-yr, small-watershed experiment in Iowa, when annual hydrologic budgets were accrued between droughts, a coupled water-energy budget (ecohydrologic) analysis showed effects of tillage and climate on hydrology could be distinguished. The fraction of PPT discharged increased with conservation tillage and time. However, unsatisfied evaporative demand (PET - Hargreaves method) increased under conservation tillage, but decreased with time. A conceptual model was developed and a similar analysis conducted on long-term (>1920s) records from four large, agricultural Midwest watersheds underlain by fine-grained tills. At least three of four watersheds showed decreases in PET, and increases in PPT, discharge, baseflow and PPT:PET ratios (p watersheds (p watersheds, agricultural changes were associated with ecohydrologic shifts that affected timing and significance, but not direction, of these trends. Thus, an ecohydrologic concept derived from small-watershed research, when regionally applied, suggests climate change has increased discharge from Midwest watersheds, especially since the 1970s. By inference, climate change has increased susceptibility of nutrients to water transport, exacerbating Gulf of Mexico hypoxia.

  4. Effects of seasonal climatic variability on several toxic contaminants in urban lakes: Implications for the impacts of climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qiong Wu; Xinghui Xia; Xinli Mou; Baotong Zhu; Pujun Zhao; Haiyang Dong

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is supposed to have influences on water quality and ecosystem.However,only few studies have assessed the effect of climate change on environmental toxic contaminants in urban lakes.In this research,response of several toxic contaminants in twelve urban lakes in Beijing,China,to the seasonal variations in climatic factors was studied.Fluorides,volatile phenols,arsenic,selenium,and other water quality parameters were analyzed monthly from 2009 to 2012.Multivariate statistical methods including principle component analysis,cluster analysis,and multiple regression analysis were performed to study the relationship between contaminants and climatic factors including temperature,precipitation,wind speed,and sunshine duration.Fluoride and arsenic concentrations in most urban lakes exhibited a significant positive correlation with temperature/precipitation,which is mainly caused by rainfall induced diffuse pollution.A negative correlation was observed between volatile phenols and temperature/precipitation,and this could be explained by their enhanced volatilization and biodegradation rates caused by higher temperature.Selenium did not show a significant response to climatic factor variations,which was attributed to low selenium contents in the lakes and soils.Moreover,the response degrees of contaminants to climatic variations differ among lakes with different contamination levels.On average,temperature/precipitation contributed to 8%,15%,and 12% of the variations in volatile phenols,arsenic,and fluorides,respectively.Beijing is undergoing increased temperature and heavy rainfall frequency during the past five decades.This study suggests that water quality related to fluoride and arsenic concentrations of most urban lakes in Beijing is becoming worse under this climate change trend.

  5. Global economic effects of changes in crops, pasture, and forests due to changing climate, carbon dioxide, and ozone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Multiple environmental changes will have consequences for global vegetation. To the extent that crop yields and pasture and forest productivity are affected, there can be important economic consequences. We examine the combined effects of changes in climate, increases in carbon dioxide (CO2), and changes in tropospheric ozone on crop, pasture, and forest lands and the consequences for the global and regional economies. We examine scenarios where there is limited or little effort to control these substances, and policy scenarios that limit emissions of CO2 and ozone precursors. We find the effects of climate and CO2 to be generally positive, and the effects of ozone to be very detrimental. Unless ozone is strongly controlled, damage could offset CO2 and climate benefits. We find that resource allocation among sectors in the economy, and trade among countries, can strongly affect the estimate of economic effect in a country

  6. Climate change effects on the hydrological regime of small non-perennial river basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pumo, Dario; Caracciolo, Domenico; Viola, Francesco; Noto, Leonardo V

    2016-01-15

    Recent years have been witnessing an increasing interest on global climate change and, although we are only at the first stage of the projected trends, some signals of climate alteration are already visible. Climate change encompasses modifications in the characteristics of several interrelated climate variables, and unavoidably produces relevant effects on almost all the natural processes related to the hydrological cycle. This study focuses on potential impacts of climate variations on the streamflow regime of small river basins in Mediterranean, seasonally dry, regions. The paper provides a quantitative evaluation of potential modifications in the flow duration curves (FDCs) and in the partitioning between surface and subsurface contributions to streamflow, induced by climate changes projected over the next century in different basins, also exploring the role exerted by different soil–vegetation compositions. To this aim, it is used a recent hydrological model, which is calibrated at five Sicilian (Italy) basins using a past period with available streamflow observations. The model is then forced by daily precipitation and reference evapotranspiration series representative of the current climatic conditions and two future temporal horizons, referring to the time windows 2045–2065 and 2081–2100. Future climatic series are generated by a weather generator, based on a stochastic downscaling of an ensemble of General Circulation Models. The results show how the projected climatic modifications are differently reflected in the hydrological response of the selected basins, implying, in general, a sensible downshift of the FDCs, with a significant reduction in the mean annual streamflow, and substantial alterations in streamflow seasonality and in the relative importance of the surface and subsurface components. The projected climate change impact on the hydrological regime of ephemeral rivers could have important implications for the water resource management and

  7. Nuclear Energy and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Méritet, Sophie; Zaleski, Pierre

    2009-01-01

    The paper will discuss the possibilities of the development of nuclear energy in the world in the midterm and long term. It will correlate the prospects with the emissions of CO2 and the effects on climate change. In particular it will discuss the problems nuclear energy face to make a large contribution of climate change issue.

  8. Effect of Climate Change on Mediterranean Winter Ranges of Two Migratory Passerines.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José L Tellería

    Full Text Available We studied the effect of climate change on the distribution of two insectivorous passerines (the meadow pipit Anthus pratensis and the chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita in wintering grounds of the Western Mediterranean basin. In this region, precipitation and temperature can affect the distribution of these birds through direct (thermoregulation costs or indirect effects (primary productivity. Thus, it can be postulated that projected climate changes in the region will affect the extent and suitability of their wintering grounds. We studied pipit and chiffchaff abundance in several hundred localities along a belt crossing Spain and Morocco and assessed the effects of climate and other geographical and habitat predictors on bird distribution. Multivariate analyses reported a positive effect of temperature on the present distribution of the two species, with an additional effect of precipitation on the meadow pipit. These climate variables were used with Maxent to model the occurrence probabilities of species using ring recoveries as presence data. Abundance and occupancy of the two species in the study localities adjusted to the distribution models, with more birds in sectors of high climate suitability. After validation, these models were used to forecast the distribution of climate suitability according to climate projections for 2050-2070 (temperature increase and precipitation reduction. Results show an expansion of climatically suitable sectors into the highlands by the effect of warming on the two species, and a retreat of the meadow pipit from southern sectors related to rain reduction. The predicted patterns show a mean increase in climate suitability for the two species due to the warming of the large highland expanses typical of the western Mediterranean.

  9. Effect of Climate Change on Mediterranean Winter Ranges of Two Migratory Passerines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellería, José L.; Fernández-López, Javier; Fandos, Guillermo

    2016-01-01

    We studied the effect of climate change on the distribution of two insectivorous passerines (the meadow pipit Anthus pratensis and the chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita) in wintering grounds of the Western Mediterranean basin. In this region, precipitation and temperature can affect the distribution of these birds through direct (thermoregulation costs) or indirect effects (primary productivity). Thus, it can be postulated that projected climate changes in the region will affect the extent and suitability of their wintering grounds. We studied pipit and chiffchaff abundance in several hundred localities along a belt crossing Spain and Morocco and assessed the effects of climate and other geographical and habitat predictors on bird distribution. Multivariate analyses reported a positive effect of temperature on the present distribution of the two species, with an additional effect of precipitation on the meadow pipit. These climate variables were used with Maxent to model the occurrence probabilities of species using ring recoveries as presence data. Abundance and occupancy of the two species in the study localities adjusted to the distribution models, with more birds in sectors of high climate suitability. After validation, these models were used to forecast the distribution of climate suitability according to climate projections for 2050–2070 (temperature increase and precipitation reduction). Results show an expansion of climatically suitable sectors into the highlands by the effect of warming on the two species, and a retreat of the meadow pipit from southern sectors related to rain reduction. The predicted patterns show a mean increase in climate suitability for the two species due to the warming of the large highland expanses typical of the western Mediterranean. PMID:26761791

  10. Effect of Climate Change on Mediterranean Winter Ranges of Two Migratory Passerines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellería, José L; Fernández-López, Javier; Fandos, Guillermo

    2016-01-01

    We studied the effect of climate change on the distribution of two insectivorous passerines (the meadow pipit Anthus pratensis and the chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita) in wintering grounds of the Western Mediterranean basin. In this region, precipitation and temperature can affect the distribution of these birds through direct (thermoregulation costs) or indirect effects (primary productivity). Thus, it can be postulated that projected climate changes in the region will affect the extent and suitability of their wintering grounds. We studied pipit and chiffchaff abundance in several hundred localities along a belt crossing Spain and Morocco and assessed the effects of climate and other geographical and habitat predictors on bird distribution. Multivariate analyses reported a positive effect of temperature on the present distribution of the two species, with an additional effect of precipitation on the meadow pipit. These climate variables were used with Maxent to model the occurrence probabilities of species using ring recoveries as presence data. Abundance and occupancy of the two species in the study localities adjusted to the distribution models, with more birds in sectors of high climate suitability. After validation, these models were used to forecast the distribution of climate suitability according to climate projections for 2050-2070 (temperature increase and precipitation reduction). Results show an expansion of climatically suitable sectors into the highlands by the effect of warming on the two species, and a retreat of the meadow pipit from southern sectors related to rain reduction. The predicted patterns show a mean increase in climate suitability for the two species due to the warming of the large highland expanses typical of the western Mediterranean. PMID:26761791

  11. Cinematic climate change, a promising perspective on climate change communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakellari, Maria

    2015-10-01

    Previous research findings display that after having seen popular climate change films, people became more concerned, more motivated and more aware of climate change, but changes in behaviors were short-term. This article performs a meta-analysis of three popular climate change films, The Day after Tomorrow (2005), An Inconvenient Truth (2006), and The Age of Stupid (2009), drawing on research in social psychology, human agency, and media effect theory in order to formulate a rationale about how mass media communication shapes our everyday life experience. This article highlights the factors with which science blends in the reception of the three climate change films and expands the range of options considered in order to encourage people to engage in climate change mitigation actions. PMID:24916195

  12. Green-roof thermal effects in the context of climate change and sustainable urban design

    OpenAIRE

    Peng, Lihua; 彭立华.

    2012-01-01

    With the growing urbanized population, cities have become a major contributor to global energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. The urbanization processes also cause local climate change through excessive anthropogenic heat emission and modification of the land biophysical properties. The resultant urban heat island (UHI) effects and aggravating human heat stress have become key environmental issues in city management. Cities can be designed to be climate-conscious and energy-e...

  13. The Effects of Climate Changes on Brazilian Agricultural Production – A Multisector Growth Model Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Spolador, Humberto Francisco Silva; Smith, Rodney B.W.

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops a multisector growth model to examine the potential effects of climate change and Brazilian agriculture. In keeping with the current literature, the model assumes climate (here temperature and rainfall) affects agricultural output via its impact on total factor productivity (TFP). We begin by estimating an aggregate agricultural technology for Brazil, with econometric results suggesting a strong relationship exists between rainfall, temperature and agricultural TFP. We the...

  14. Effects of climate change on alpine plant species at Finse, Southern Norway

    OpenAIRE

    Molovcakova, Ivana

    2012-01-01

    The issue of climate change is one of the most discussed topics on Earth. The Earth is warming up and that is expected to continue in future. Alpine vegetation has already been affected by climate warming and has already shown responses. This study examined the effects of elevated temperature on individual functional traits. Because the temperature seems to be a crucial indicator of future existence and diversity of alpine plant community, I assessed how the functional traits of 10 selected p...

  15. Performance Based Evaluation of Concrete Strength under Various Curing Conditions to Investigate Climate Change Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tae-Kyun Kim

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the manifestation of global warming-induced climate change has been observed through super typhoons, heavy snowfalls, torrential rains, and extended heat waves. These climate changes have been occurring all over the world and natural disasters have caused severe damage and deterioration of concrete structures and infrastructure. In an effort to deal with these problems due to extreme and abnormal climate changes, studies have been conducted to develop construction technologies and design guidelines. Nevertheless, study results applicable to construction sites continue to be ineffective and insufficient. Therefore, this study proposes ways to cope with climate change by considering the effect of concrete curing condition variations on concrete material performance. More specifically, the 3-, 7- and 28-day compressive and split tensile strength properties of concrete mix cured under various climatic factors including temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and sunlight exposure time were evaluated to determine whether the concrete meets the current design requirements. Thereafter, a performance based evaluation (PBE was performed using satisfaction probabilities based on the test values to understand the problems associated with the current mix proportion design practice and to identify countermeasures to deal with climate change-induced curing conditions.

  16. Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

    2014-12-01

    Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

  17. Climate and Global Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present volume contains the lessons delivered at the course held in Arles, France, on the subject Climate and Global Change: natural variability of the geosphere and biosphere systems, biogeochemical cycles and their perturbation by human activities, monitoring and forecasting global changes (satellite observations, modelling,...). Short presentations of students' own research activities are also proposed (climatic fluctuation in the Mediterranean area, climate/vegetation relations, etc.)

  18. Climate change effects on mitigation measures: The case of extreme wind events and Philippines’ biofuel plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biofuel production has increased dramatically over the past decade, among other to mitigate climate change. However, climate change vulnerability may currently not be sufficiently accounted for in national biofuel strategies, hence neglecting a possible link between mitigation and adaptation to climate change. To the best of our knowledge this potential link has received very little attention in the literature. One example is the Philippines, which is currently implementing an ambitious program of biofuel production. Its aim is to reduce dependency on imported fuel, increase rural employment and incomes, and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. The Philippines is frequently battered by tropical typhoons and from 1975 to 2002 the annual average damage to agriculture was 3.047 billion pesos. We calculate wind damage on biofuel feedstock production, and assess the effect that a future potential increase in tropical cyclone intensity would have on energy security, rural development and climate change mitigation in the Philippines. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to obtain the future expected development of typhoon impacts. Based on the Philippines legislated target of 10% biodiesel blend in gasoline by 2011, simulation of the affected area for each feedstock, and expected biofuel feedstock damage is computed for the Philippine's 80 provinces in 2050, for two different typhoon climate change scenarios. Additional indirect economic effects are assessed in a tentative way. The results suggest a modest decrease in biofuel feedstock productivity at the national level, but with strong local differences that are shown to affect the Philippine's policy goals. In a broader perspective the paper accentuates a so far little described link between climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation. This link may merit further attention by policy makers and development planners in order to ensure that policies are economically sound not only in the short but also medium term.

  19. Climatic effects of 1950–2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols – Part 2: Climate response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. M. Leibensperger

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the climate response to US anthropogenic aerosol sources over the 1950 to 2050 period by using the NASA GISS general circulation model (GCM and comparing to observed US temperature trends. Time-dependent aerosol distributions are generated from the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model applied to historical emission inventories and future projections. Radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols peaked in 1970–1990 and has strongly declined since due to air quality regulations. We find that the regional radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols elicits a strong regional climate response, cooling the central and eastern US by 0.5–1.0 °C on average during 1970–1990, with the strongest effects on maximum daytime temperatures in summer and autumn. Aerosol cooling reflects comparable contributions from direct and indirect (cloud-mediated radiative effects. Absorbing aerosol (mainly black carbon has negligible warming effect. Aerosol cooling reduces surface evaporation and thus decreases precipitation along the US east coast, but also increases the southerly flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico resulting in increased cloud cover and precipitation in the central US. Observations over the eastern US show a lack of warming in 1960–1980 followed by very rapid warming since, which we reproduce in the GCM and attribute to trends in US anthropogenic aerosol sources. Present US aerosol concentrations are sufficiently low that future air quality improvements are projected to cause little further warming in the US (0.1 °C over 2010–2050. We find that most of the potential warming from aerosol source controls in the US has already been realized over the 1980–2010 period.

  20. Herbivory in global climate change research: direct effects of rising temperature on insect herbivores

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bale, J.S.; Masters, G.J.; Hodkinson, I.D.; Awmack, C.; Bezemer, T.M.; Brown, V.K.; Butterfield, J.; Buse, A.; Coulson, J.C.; Farrar, J.; Good, J.E.G.; Harrington, R.; Hartley, S.; Jones, T.H.; Lindroth, R.L.; Press, M.C.; Symrnioudis, I.; Watt, A.D.; Whittaker, J.B.

    2002-01-01

    This review examines the direct effects of climate change on insect herbivores. Temperature is identified as the dominant abiotic factor directly affecting herbivorous insects. There is little evidence of any direct effects Of CO2 or UVB. Direct impacts of precipitation have been largely neglected i

  1. Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: progress report, 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) is one of three Panels that regularly informs the Parties (countries) to the Montreal Protocol on the effects of ozone depletion and the consequences of climate change interactions with respect to human health, animals, plants, bi...

  2. Potential impact of climate change on air pollution-related human health effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tagaris, Efthimios; Liao, Kuo-Jen; Delucia, Anthony J; Deck, Leland; Amar, Praveen; Russell, Armistead G

    2009-07-01

    The potential health impact of ambient ozone and PM2.5 concentrations modulated by climate change over the United States is investigated using combined atmospheric and health modeling. Regional air quality modeling for 2001 and 2050 was conducted using CMAQ Modeling System with meteorology from the GISS Global Climate Model, downscaled regionally using MM5,keeping boundary conditions of air pollutants, emission sources, population, activity levels, and pollution controls constant. BenMap was employed to estimate the air pollution health outcomes at the county, state, and national level for 2050 caused by the effect of meteorology on future ozone and PM2.5 concentrations. The changes in calculated annual mean PM2.5 concentrations show a relatively modest change with positive and negative responses (increasing PM2.5 levels across the northeastern U.S.) although average ozone levels slightly decrease across the northern sections of the U.S., and increase across the southern tier. Results suggest that climate change driven air quality-related health effects will be adversely affected in more then 2/3 of the continental U.S. Changes in health effects induced by PM2.5 dominate compared to those caused by ozone. PM2.5-induced premature mortality is about 15 times higher then that due to ozone. Nationally the analysis suggests approximately 4000 additional annual premature deaths due to climate change impacts on PM2.5 vs 300 due to climate change-induced ozone changes. However, the impacts vary spatially. Increased premature mortality due to elevated ozone concentrations will be offset by lower mortality from reductions in PM2.5 in 11 states. Uncertainties related to different emissions projections used to simulate future climate, and the uncertainties forecasting the meteorology, are large although there are potentially important unaddressed uncertainties (e.g., downscaling, speciation, interaction, exposure, and concentration-response function of the human health studies

  3. Effects of climate change on the production and consumption of electricity in Finland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this study was to use the latest knowledge about the greenhouse effect and its impact on electricity production and consumption in Finland and so to update the former study of Aittoniemi made at IVO in 1990. This research used the new climate change scenarios which were drawn up in the Nordic research project entitled Climate Change and Energy Production, financed by the Nordic Council of Ministers, and in the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change, SILMU. These scenarios have been specially made for Finland, and are thus more suitable than the former global models. The base scenario was chosen to be the year 2025 with no climate change, and the climate change-affected years studied were 2025 and 2100. The base scenario of electricity consumption and production took advantage of the scenario of Ministry of Trade and Industry made at the end of the 1980s. Some changes were essential, however, since the present development proves that some of the assumptions concerning power production forms will not be relevant in 2025. Based on the known dependencies between electricity consumption and temperature, impacts were calculated for each affected consumption sector: electric heating, household consumption and industrial consumption, process industry excluded. The total effect on the supply system was estimated with the KAPAS model, developed for capacity planning of Finland. According to the results, the effects of the projected climate change on the total consumption and production of electricity will be limited. The structure of both electricity consumption and production will remain rather similar, the most important changes applying to hydro power. (13 refs.)

  4. Climate Change Crunch Time

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xie Zhenhua

    2011-01-01

    CLIMATE change is a severe challenge facing humanity in the 21st century and thus the Chinese Government always attaches great importance to the problem.Actively dealing with climate change is China's important strategic policy in its social and economic development.China will make a positive contribution to the world in this regard.

  5. Effects of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion, Solar UV Radiation, and Climate Change on Biogeochemical Cycling: Interactions and Feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change modulates the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, particularly for carbon cycling, resulting in UV-mediated positive or negative feedbacks on climate. Possible positive feedbacks discussed in this assessment...

  6. Research frontiers in climate change: Effects of extreme meteorological events on ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change will increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. Evidence suggests that modifications in extreme weather events pose stronger threats to ecosystem functioning than global trends and shifts in average conditions. As ecosystem functioning is connected with ecological services, this has far-reaching effects on societies in the 21. century. Here, we: (i) present the rationale for the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events in the near future; (ii) discuss recent findings on meteorological extremes and summarize their effects on ecosystems and (iii) identify gaps in current ecological climate change research. (authors)

  7. Managing Climate Change Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB1 Aspendale, Victoria 3195 (Australia)

    2003-07-01

    Issues of uncertainty, scale and delay between action and response mean that 'dangerous' climate change is best managed within a risk assessment framework that evolves as new information is gathered. Risk can be broadly defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence; the latter measured as vulnerability to greenhouse-induced climate change. The most robust way to assess climate change damages in a probabilistic framework is as the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance. Because vulnerability is dominated by local factors, global vulnerability is the aggregation of many local impacts being forced beyond their coping ranges. Several case studies, generic sea level rise and temperature, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and water supply in an Australian catchment, are used to show how local risk assessments can be assessed then expressed as a function of global warming. Impacts treated thus can be aggregated to assess global risks consistent with Article 2 of the UNFCCC. A 'proof of concept' example is then used to show how the stabilisation of greenhouse gases can constrain the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds at both the both local and global scale. This analysis suggests that even if the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages can be estimated, the likelihood of being able to meet a cost-benefit target is limited by both physical and socio-economic uncertainties. In terms of managing climate change risks, adaptation will be most effective at reducing vulnerability likely to occur at low levels of warming. Successive efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases will reduce the likelihood of reaching levels of global warming from the top down, with the highest potential temperatures being avoided first, irrespective of contributing scientific uncertainties. This implies that the first cuts in emissions will always produce the largest economic benefits in terms of avoided

  8. My Morning Coffee: The Effect of Climate Change on the Economies of Coffee-Producing Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shilling, K.; Brauman, K. A.

    2012-12-01

    Through its effect on export crops, climate change will have important effects on economic systems and government capacity in sub-Saharan Africa. We show that climate change effects on three important export crops - coffee, cocoa and cotton - will undermine large portions of the economy, not just the rural farmers who grow these crops. Our analysis is based high-resolution data on crop location, temperature, and water requirements in conjunction with new projections for temperature increases and precipitation changes in sub-Saharan Africa. Our focus on export crops is distinct from most work on the effects of climate change on agriculture, which often focuses on subsistence and food crops. We posit that substantial and important effects on the economy and political systems will come from negative impacts on cash crops, which underpin many economies in sub-Saharan Africa. For instance, 3% of cropland in Uganda (and 2% in Ethiopia) is used for coffee production and over 3.5 million households are involved in the sector; by contrast, 7% of cropland in Uganda (and 11% in Ethiopia) is used for maize, which contributes much less to the formal economy. The relationship between the value of coffee exported and government revenue illustrates the importance of coffee to political and economic stability. A drop in the export value of coffee by 10% in Uganda will drive government revenue down by 20%, and while there is uncertainty around the exact impact of climate change, it is likely that production will take a turn for the worse. We use these factors to assess reliance of select country's economy on these crops, from the farmer to the exporter; the sensitivity of the crops to variation in the climate; and the subsequent impact on government capacity. Our research illustrates how strongly the impacts of climate change are linked to economic and political structures.

  9. Climate for change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate for Change: Non-State Actors and the Global Politics of the Greenhouse provides a challenging explanation of the forces that have shaped the international global warming debate. Unlike existing books on the politics of climate change, this book concentrates on how non-stage actors, such as scientific, environmental and industry groups, as opposed to governmental organisations, affect political outcomes in global fora on climate change. It also provides insights in to the role of the media in influencing the agenda. The book draws on a range of analytical approaches to assess and explain the influence of these non-governmental organisations in the course of global climate change politics. The book will be of interest to all researchers and policy-makers associated with climate change, and will be used on university courses in international relations, politics and environmental studies. (Author)

  10. Climate change and our environment: the effect on respiratory and allergic disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barne, Charles; Alexis, Neil E; Bernstein, Jonathan A; Cohn, John R; Demain, Jeffrey G; Horner, Elliot; Levetin, Estelle; Nei, Andre; Phipatanakul, Wanda

    2013-03-01

    Climate change is a constant and ongoing process. It is postulated that human activities have reached a point at which we are producing global climate change. It provides suggestions to help the allergist/environmental physician integrate recommendations about improvements in outdoor and indoor air quality and the likely response to predicted alterations in the earth's environment into his or her patient's treatment plan. It incorporates references retrieved from Pub Med searches for topics, including:climate change, global warming, global climate change, greenhouse gasses, air pollution, particulates, black carbon, soot and sea level, as well as references contributed by the individual authors. Many changes that affect respiratory disease are anticipated.Examples of responses to climate change include energy reduction retrofits in homes that could potentially affect exposure to allergens and irritants, more hot sunny days that increase ozone-related difficulties, and rises in sea level or altered rainfall patterns that increase exposure to damp indoor environments.Climate changes can also affect ecosystems, manifested as the appearance of stinging and biting arthropods in new areas.Higher ambient carbon dioxide concentrations, warmer temperatures, and changes in floristic zones could potentially increase exposure to ragweed and other outdoor allergens,whereas green practices such as composting can increase allergen and irritant exposure. Finally, increased energy costs may resultin urban crowding and human source pollution, leading to changes in patterns of infectious respiratory illnesses. Improved governmental controls on airborne pollutants could lead to cleaner air and reduced respiratory diseases but will meet strong opposition because of their effect on business productivity. The allergy community must therefore adapt, as physician and research scientists always have, by anticipating the needs of patients and by adopting practices and research methods to

  11. Predicted climate change alters the indirect effect of predators on an ecosystem process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lensing, Janet R; Wise, David H

    2006-10-17

    Changes in rainfall predicted to occur with global climate change will likely alter rates of leaf-litter decomposition through direct effects on primary decomposers. In a field experiment replicated at two sites, we show that altered rainfall may also change how cascading trophic interactions initiated by arthropod predators in the leaf litter indirectly influence litter decomposition. On the drier site there was no interaction between rainfall and the indirect effect of predators on decomposition. In contrast, on the moister site spiders accelerated the disappearance rate of deciduous leaf litter under low rainfall, but had no, or possibly a negative, indirect effect under high rainfall. Thus, changes resulting from the more intense hydrological cycle expected to occur with climate change will likely influence how predators indirectly affect an essential ecosystem process. PMID:17023538

  12. Climate change and prairie pothole wetlands: mitigating water-level and hydroperiod effects through upland management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renton, David A.; Mushet, David M.; DeKeyser, Edward S.

    2015-01-01

    Prairie pothole wetlands offer crucial habitat for North America’s waterfowl populations. The wetlands also support an abundance of other species and provide ecological services valued by society. The hydrology of prairie pothole wetlands is dependent on atmospheric interactions. Therefore, changes to the region’s climate can have profound effects on wetland hydrology. The relevant literature related to climate change and upland management effects on prairie pothole wetland water levels and hydroperiods was reviewed. Climate change is widely expected to affect water levels and hydroperiods of prairie pothole wetlands, as well as the biota and ecological services that the wetlands support. In general, hydrologic model projections that incorporate future climate change scenarios forecast lower water levels in prairie pothole wetlands and longer periods spent in a dry condition, despite potential increases in precipitation. However, the extreme natural variability in climate and hydrology of prairie pothole wetlands necessitates caution when interpreting model results. Recent changes in weather patterns throughout much of the Prairie Pothole Region have been in increased precipitation that results in increased water inputs to wetlands above losses associated with warmer temperatures. However, observed precipitation increases are within the range of natural climate variability and therefore, may not persist. Identifying management techniques with the potential to affect water inputs to prairie pothole wetlands would provide increased options for managers when dealing with the uncertainties associated with a changing climate. Several grassland management techniques (for example, grazing and burning) have the potential to affect water levels and hydroperiods of prairie pothole by affecting infiltration, evapotranspiration, and snow deposition.

  13. Multiple stressors, nonlinear effects and the implications of climate change impacts on marine coastal ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewitt, Judi E; Ellis, Joanne I; Thrush, Simon F

    2016-08-01

    Global climate change will undoubtedly be a pressure on coastal marine ecosystems, affecting not only species distributions and physiology but also ecosystem functioning. In the coastal zone, the environmental variables that may drive ecological responses to climate change include temperature, wave energy, upwelling events and freshwater inputs, and all act and interact at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. To date, we have a poor understanding of how climate-related environmental changes may affect coastal marine ecosystems or which environmental variables are likely to produce priority effects. Here we use time series data (17 years) of coastal benthic macrofauna to investigate responses to a range of climate-influenced variables including sea-surface temperature, southern oscillation indices (SOI, Z4), wind-wave exposure, freshwater inputs and rainfall. We investigate responses from the abundances of individual species to abundances of functional traits and test whether species that are near the edge of their tolerance to another stressor (in this case sedimentation) may exhibit stronger responses. The responses we observed were all nonlinear and some exhibited thresholds. While temperature was most frequently an important predictor, wave exposure and ENSO-related variables were also frequently important and most ecological variables responded to interactions between environmental variables. There were also indications that species sensitive to another stressor responded more strongly to weaker climate-related environmental change at the stressed site than the unstressed site. The observed interactions between climate variables, effects on key species or functional traits, and synergistic effects of additional anthropogenic stressors have important implications for understanding and predicting the ecological consequences of climate change to coastal ecosystems. PMID:26648483

  14. Climate change and health effects in Northwest Alaska

    OpenAIRE

    Brubaker, Michael; Berner, James; Chavan, Raj; Warren, John

    2011-01-01

    This article provides examples of adverse health effects, including weather-related injury, food insecurity, mental health issues, and water infrastructure damage, and the responses to these effects that are currently being applied in two Northwest Alaska communities. Background: In Northwest Alaska, warming is resulting in a broad range of unusual weather and environmental conditions, including delayed freeze-up, earlier breakup, storm surge, coastal erosion, and thawing permafrost. These ar...

  15. Simulating effects of fire disturbance and climate change on boreal forest productivity and evapotranspiration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We used a terrestrial ecosystem process model, BIOME-BGC, to investigate historical climate change and fire disturbance effects on regional carbon and water budgets within a 357,500 km2 portion of the Canadian boreal forest. Historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO2, climate change, and regional fire activity were used as model drivers to evaluate the relative effects of these impacts to spatial patterns and temporal trends in forest net primary production (NPP) and evapotranspiration (ET). Historical trends of increasing atmospheric CO2 resulted in overall 13% and 5% increases in annual NPP and ET from 1994 to 1996, respectively. NPP was found to be relatively sensitive to changes in air temperature (Ta), while ET was more sensitive to precipitation (P) change within the ranges of observed climate variability (e.g., +/-2 oC for Ta and +/-20% for P). In addition, the potential effect of climate change related warming on NPP is exacerbated or offset depending on whether these changes are accompanied by respective decreases or increases in precipitation. Historical fire activity generally resulted in reductions of both NPP and ET, which consumed an average of approximately 6% of annual NPP from 1959 to 1996. Areas currently occupied by dry conifer forests were found to be subject to more frequent fire activity, which consumed approximately 8% of annual NPP. The results of this study show that the North American boreal ecosystem is sensitive to historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO2, climate change and regional fire activity. The relative impacts of these disturbances on NPP and ET interact in complex ways and are spatially variable depending on regional land cover and climate gradients. (author)

  16. Empowering America's Communities to Prepare for the Effects of Climate Change: Developing Actionable Climate Science Under the President's Climate Action Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duffy, P. B.; Colohan, P.; Driggers, R.; Herring, D.; Laurier, F.; Petes, L.; Ruffo, S.; Tilmes, C.; Venkataraman, B.; Weaver, C. P.

    2014-12-01

    Effective adaptation to impacts of climate change requires best-available information. To be most useful, this information should be easily found, well-documented, and translated into tools that decision-makers use and trust. To meet these needs, the President's Climate Action Plan includes efforts to develop "actionable climate science". The Climate Data Initiative (CDI) leverages the Federal Government's extensive, open data resources to stimulate innovation and private-sector entrepreneurship in support of actions to prepare for climate change. The Initiative forges commitments and partnerships from the private, NGO, academic, and public sectors to create data-driven tools. Open data from Federal agencies to support this innovation is available on Climate.Data.gov, initially focusing on coastal flooding but soon to expand to topics including food, energy, water, energy, transportation, and health. The Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT) will facilitate access to data-driven resilience tools, services, and best practices, including those accessible through the CDI. The CRT will also include access to training and tutorials, case studies, engagement forums, and other information sources. The Climate Action Plan also calls for a public-private partnership on extreme weather risk, with the goal of generating improved assessments of risk from different types of extreme weather events, using methods and data that are transparent and accessible. Finally, the U.S. Global Change Research Program and associated agencies work to advance the science necessary to inform decisions and sustain assessments. Collectively, these efforts represent increased emphasis across the Federal Government on the importance of information to support climate resilience.

  17. Climate, greenhouse effect, energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The book has sections on the sun as energy source, the earth climate and it's changes and factors influencing this, the greenhouse effect on earth and other planets, greenhouse gases and aerosols and their properties and importance, historic climate and paleoclimate, climatic models and their uses and limitations, future climate, consequences of climatic changes, uncertainties regarding the climate and measures for reducing the greenhouse effect. Finally there are sections on energy and energy resources, the use, sources such as fossil fuels, nuclear power, renewable resources, heat pumps, energy storage and environmental aspects and the earth magnetic field is briefly surveyed

  18. Struggle against climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document first proposes a presentation of the cross-cutting policy defined for the struggle against climate change. It notably presents its various programs. It describes the implemented strategy which aims at reducing on a short term greenhouse gas emissions with the available technologies, at making the climate challenge a driver for economic competitiveness, at developing the knowledge on climatic change and at preparing the necessary adaptation measures, and at stating on the international scene the French commitment and its dynamic role in front of the climate challenge

  19. Quantifying the effects of climate change and land use change on water resources in Denmark using an integrated watershed model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Sonnenborg, Torben; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a quantitative comparison of plausible climate and land use change impacts on the hydrology of a large-scale agricultural catchment. An integrated, distributed hydrological model was used to simulate changes in the groundwater system and its discharge to rivers and drains for ......, whereas other factors such as irrigation, CO2 effects on transpiration, and land use changes affect the water balance to a lesser extent....

  20. Communities under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

  1. The Effect of Landscape Architecture on Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Nazanin Nafici; M.F.M. Zain

    2012-01-01

    Permanent environmental influences such as sun, fog, acid rain can destroy structures, buildings and the environment. Improving the quality of urban environment with utilizing green roof and green facades is illustrated for several years and installing them can offer multiple benefits. A detailed integrated presentation of green roof and green facade systems is provided in this paper. The aim of the research is to illustrate the effect of green façade and green roofs and generally greenery st...

  2. Climate change and water scarcity effects on the rural income distribution in the Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quiroga, Sonia; Suárez, Cristina

    2015-04-01

    This paper examines the effects of climate change and water scarcity on the agricultural outputs in the Mediterranean region. By now the effects of water scarcity as a response to climate change or policy restrictions has been analyzed with response functions considering the direct effects on crop productivity. Here we consider a complementary indirect effect on social distribution of incomes which is essential in the long term. We estimate crop production functions for a range of Mediterranean crops in Spain and we use a decomposition of the Gini coefficient to estimate the impact of climate change and water scarcity on yield disparities. This social aspect is important for climate change policies since it can be determinant for the public acceptation of certain adaptation measures in a context of water scarcity. We provide the empirical estimations for the marginal effects on the two considered direct and indirect impacts. In our estimates we consider both bio-physical and socio-economic aspects to conclude that there are long term implications on both competitiveness and social disparities. We find disparities in the adaptation strategies depending on the crop and the region analyzed.

  3. Climate change and marine vertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sydeman, William J; Poloczanska, Elvira; Reed, Thomas E; Thompson, Sarah Ann

    2015-11-13

    Climate change impacts on vertebrates have consequences for marine ecosystem structures and services. We review marine fish, mammal, turtle, and seabird responses to climate change and discuss their potential for adaptation. Direct and indirect responses are demonstrated from every ocean. Because of variation in research foci, observed responses differ among taxonomic groups (redistributions for fish, phenology for seabirds). Mechanisms of change are (i) direct physiological responses and (ii) climate-mediated predator-prey interactions. Regional-scale variation in climate-demographic functions makes range-wide population dynamics challenging to predict. The nexus of metabolism relative to ecosystem productivity and food webs appears key to predicting future effects on marine vertebrates. Integration of climate, oceanographic, ecosystem, and population models that incorporate evolutionary processes is needed to prioritize the climate-related conservation needs for these species. PMID:26564847

  4. Predicting the effect of climate change on wildfire behavior and initial attack success

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Riley, William; Fried, Jeremy S.; Gilless, J. Keith; Riley, William J.; Moody, Tadashi J.; Simon de Blas, Clara; Hayhoe, Katharine; Moritz, Max; Stephens, Scott; Torn, Margaret

    2007-12-01

    This study focused on how climate change-induced effects on weather will translate into changes in wildland fire severity and outcomes in California, particularly on the effectiveness of initial attack at limiting the number of fires that escape initial attack. The results indicate that subtle shifts in fire behavior of the sort that might be induced by the climate changes anticipated for the next century are of sufficient magnitude to generate an appreciable increase in the number of fires that escape initial attack. Such escapes are of considerable importance in wildland fire protection planning, given the high cost to society of a catastrophic escape like those experienced in recent decades in the Berkeley-Oakland, Santa Barbara, San Diego, or Los Angeles areas. However, at least for the three study areas considered, it would appear that relatively modest augmentations to existing firefighting resources might be sufficient to compensate for change-induced changes in wildland fire outcomes.

  5. Effects of Climate Change and Shifts in Forest Composition on Forest Net Primary Production

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jyh-Min Chiang; Louts R. Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Kim J. Brown

    2008-01-01

    Forests are dynamic in both structure and species composition, and these dynamics are strongly Influenced by climate.However, the net effects of future tree species composition on net primary production (NPP) are not well understood. The objective of this work was to model the potential range shifts of tree species (DISTRIB Model) and predict their impacts on NPP (PnET-Ⅱ Model) that will be associated with alterations in species composition. We selected four 200 × 200 km areas In Wisconsin, Maine, Arkansas, and the Ohio-West Virginia area, representing focal areas of potential species range shifts. PnET-Ⅱ model simulations were carried out assuming that all forests achieved steady state, of which the species compositions were predicted by DISTRIB model with no migration limitation. The total NPP under the current climate ranged from 552 to 908 g C/m2 per year. The effects of potential species redistributions on NPP were moderate (-12% to +8%) compared with the influence of future climatic changes (-60% to +25%). The direction and magnitude of climate change effects on NPP were largely dependent on the degree of warming and water balance. Thus, the magnitude of future climate change can affect the feedback system between the atmosphere and biosphere.

  6. Climate Change and Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Nibleus, Kerstin; Lundin, Rickard

    2010-01-01

    Planet Earth has experienced repeated changes of its climate throughout time. Periods warmer than today as well as much colder, during glacial episodes, have alternated. In our time, rapid population growth with increased demand for natural resources and energy, has made society increasingly vulnerable to environmental changes, both natural and those caused by man; human activity is clearly affecting the radiation balance of the Earth. In the session “Climate Change and Mitigation” the speake...

  7. PERCEPTIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

    OpenAIRE

    WAITHAKA, E.; OGENDI, KIMANI; MORARA, G.; MUTUA, MAKENZI P.

    2014-01-01

    There is evidence of climate change related events in arid and semi-arid lands. People living in Arid and Semi-arid Lands are particularly vulnerable to the change. Previous studies have revealed great wealth of adaptation mechanisms developed by communities residing in therein over the course of history for their survival. Despite this, there is little or no evidence whether these developed indigenous strategies by the vulnerable communities are based on perception of climate change. The obj...

  8. Climate effects of land use changes and anthropogenic impact on surface radiation

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    The fourth assessment report on climate change (AR4) was released in 2007 and the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) derive an increase of 0.74 ± 0.18°C in the 100 year global mean surface temperature linear trend between 1906 – 2005. IPCC state further that “there is very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming” (IPCC, 2007). The observed global warming has occurred during the same period as a considerable increa...

  9. Agriculture and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    How will increases in levels of CO2 and changes in temperature affect food production? A recently issued report analyzes prospects for US agriculture 1990 to 2030. The report, prepared by a distinguished Task Force, first projects the evolution of agriculture assuming increased levels of CO2 but no climate change. Then it deals with effects of climate change, followed by a discussion of how greenhouse emissions might be diminished by agriculture. Economic and policy matters are also covered. How the climate would respond to more greenhouse gases is uncertain. If temperatures were higher, there would be more evaporation and more precipitation. Where would the rain fall? That is a good question. Weather in a particular locality is not determined by global averages. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s could be repeated at its former site or located in another region such as the present Corn Belt. But depending on the realities at a given place, farmers have demonstrated great flexibility in choosing what they may grow. Their flexibility has been increased by the numerous varieties of seeds of major crops that are now available, each having different characteristics such as drought resistance and temperature tolerance. In past, agriculture has contributed about 5% of US greenhouse gases. Two large components have involved emissions of CO2 from farm machinery and from oxidation of organic matter in soil due to tillage. Use of diesel fuel and more efficient machinery has reduced emissions from that source by 40%. In some areas changed tillage practices are now responsible for returning carbon to the soil. The report identifies an important potential for diminishing net US emissions of CO2 by growth and utilization of biomass. Large areas are already available that could be devoted to energy crops

  10. Scenarios of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article provides an overview of current and prospected climate changes, their causes and implied threats, and of a possible route to keep the changes within a tolerable level. The global mean temperature has up to 2005 risen by almost 0.8 C deg., and the change expected by 2100 is as large as glacial-interglacial changes in the past, which were commonly spread out over 10 000 years. As is well known, the principle actor is man-made CO2, which, together with other anthropogenic gases, enhances the atmosphere's greenhouse effect. The only man-made cooling agent appears to be atmospheric aerosols. Atmospheric CO2 has now reached levels unprecedented during the past several million years. Principal threats are a greatly reduced biodiversity (species extinction), changes in the atmospheric precipitation pattern, more frequent weather extremes, and not the least, sea level rise. The expected precipitation pattern will enhance water scarcity in and around regions that suffer from water shortage already, affecting many countries. Sea level rise will act on a longer time scale. It is expected to amount to more than 50 cm by 2100, and over the coming centuries the potential rise is of the order of 10 m. A global-mean temperature increase of 2 C deg. is often quoted as a safe limit, beyond which irreversible effects must be expected. To achieve that limit, a major, rapid, and coordinated international effort will be needed. Up to the year 2050, the man-made CO2 releases must be reduced by at least 50%. This must be accompanied by a complete overhaul of the global energy supply toward depending increasingly on the Sun's supply of energy, both directly and in converted form, such as wind energy. Much of the information and insight available today has been generated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in particular its Fourth Assessment Report of 2007, which greatly advanced both public attention and political action. (author)

  11. Effect of climate change on runoff of Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium from land to surface water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterk, Ankie; Schijven, Jack; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria; de Nijs, Ton

    2016-05-15

    Faeces originating from wildlife, domestic animals or manure-fertilized fields, is considered an important source of zoonotic pathogens to which people may be exposed by, for instance, bathing or drinking-water consumption. An increase in runoff, and associated wash-off of animal faeces from fields, is assumed to contribute to the increase of disease outbreaks during periods of high precipitation. Climate change is expected to increase winter precipitation and extreme precipitation events during summer, but has simultaneously also other effects such as temperature rise and changes in evapotranspiration. The question is to what extent the combination of these effects influence the input of zoonotic pathogens to the surface waters. To quantitatively analyse the impacts of climate change on pathogen runoff, pathogen concentrations reaching surface waters through runoff were calculated by combining an input model for catchment pathogen loads with the Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS). Runoff of Cryptosporidium and Campylobacter was evaluated under different climate change scenarios and by applying different scenarios for sources of faecal pollution in the catchments, namely dairy cows and geese and manure fertilization. Model evaluation of these scenarios shows that climate change has little overall impact on runoff of Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium from land to the surface waters. Even though individual processes like runoff fluxes, pathogen release and dilution are affected, either positively or negatively, the net effect on the pathogen concentration in surface waters and consequently also on infection risks through recreation seems limited. PMID:26986498

  12. Estimating the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower and Power Marketing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sale, Michael J [ORNL; Kao, Shih-Chieh [ORNL; Uria Martinez, Rocio [ORNL; Wei, Yaxing [ORNL

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy is currently preparing an assessment of the effects of climate change on federal hydropower, as directed by Congress in Section 9505 of the Secure Water Act of 2009 (P.L. 111-11). This paper describes the assessment approach being used in a Report to Congress currently being prepared by Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The 9505 assessment will examine climate change effects on water available for hydropower operations and the future power supplies marketed from federal hydropower projects. It will also include recommendations from the Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs) on potential changes in operation or contracting practices that could address these effects and risks of climate change. Potential adaption and mitigation strategies will also be identified. Federal hydropower comprises approximately half of the U.S. hydropower portfolio. The results from the 9505 assessment will promote better understanding among federal dam owners/operators of the sensitivity of their facilities to water availability, and it will provide a basis for planning future actions that will enable adaptation to climate variability and change. The end-users of information are Congressional members, their staff, the PMAs and their customers, federal dam owners/operators, and the DOE Water Power Program.

  13. Climate change and avian influenza

    OpenAIRE

    Gilbert, Marius; Slingenbergh, Jan; Xiao, Xiangming

    2008-01-01

    This paper discusses impacts of climate change on the ecology of avian influenza viruses (AI viruses), which presumably co-evolved with migratory water birds, with virus also persisting outside the host in subarctic water bodies. Climate change would almost certainly alter bird migration, influence the AI virus transmission cycle and directly affect virus survival outside the host. The joint, net effects of these changes are rather unpredictable, but it is likely that AI virus circulation in ...

  14. Welfare impacts of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hof, Andries F.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change can affect well-being in poor economies more than previously shown if its effect on economic growth, and not only on current production, is considered. But this result does not necessarily suggest greater mitigation efforts are required.

  15. Separating climate change signals into thermodynamic, lapse-rate and circulation effects: theory and application to the European summer climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kröner, Nico; Kotlarski, Sven; Fischer, Erich; Lüthi, Daniel; Zubler, Elias; Schär, Christoph

    2016-07-01

    Climate models robustly project a strong overall summer warming across Europe showing a characteristic north-south gradient with enhanced warming and drying in southern Europe. However, the processes that are responsible for this pattern are not fully understood. We here employ an extended surrogate or pseudo-warming approach to disentangle the contribution of different mechanisms to this response pattern. The basic idea of the surrogate technique is to use a regional climate model and apply a large-scale warming to the lateral boundary conditions of a present-day reference simulation, while maintaining the relative humidity (and thus implicitly increasing the specific moisture content). In comparison to previous studies, our approach includes two important extensions: first, different vertical warming profiles are applied in order to separate the effects of a mean warming from lapse-rate effects. Second, a twin-design is used, in which the climate change signals are not only added to present-day conditions, but also subtracted from a scenario experiment. We demonstrate that these extensions provide an elegant way to separate the full climate change signal into contributions from large-scale thermodynamic (TD), lapse-rate (LR), and circulation and other remaining effects (CO). The latter in particular include changes in land-ocean contrast and spatial variations of the SST warming patterns. We find that the TD effect yields a large-scale warming across Europe with no distinct latitudinal gradient. The LR effect, which is quantified for the first time in our study, leads to a stronger warming and some drying in southern Europe. It explains about 50 % of the warming amplification over the Iberian Peninsula, thus demonstrating the important role of lapse-rate changes. The effect is linked to an extending Hadley circulation. The CO effect as inherited from the driving GCM is shown to further amplify the north-south temperature change gradient. In terms of mean summer

  16. Effects of cropping and tillage systems on soil erosion under climate change in Oklahoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soil erosion under future climate change is very likely to increase due to projected increases in frequency and magnitude of heavy storms. The objective of this study is to quantify the effects of common cropping and tillage systems on soil erosion and surface runoff during 2010-2039 in central Okl...

  17. Simulating the effect of elevated CO2 on crops : approaches and application for climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tubiello, F.N.; Ewert, F.

    2002-01-01

    Several crop models may be used to simulate the effects of elevated CO2 on crop productivity. Yet no summary exists in the literature attempting to describe differences among models and how simulations might differ under climate change conditions. We provide an introductory review focusing on simula

  18. Biodiversity and Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biological diversity or biodiversity is crucial for ecological stability including regulation of climate change, recreational and medicinal use; and scientific advancement. Kenya like other developing countries, especially, those in Sub-Saharan Africa, will continue to depend greatly on her biodiversity for present and future development. This important resource must, therefore be conserved. This chapter presents an overview of Kenya's biodiversity; its importance and initiatives being undertaken for its conservation; and in detail, explores issues of climate change and biodiversity, concentrating on impacts of climate change

  19. Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.; Torn, Margaret S.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Thomson, Allison M.; Chini, Louise M.; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter; Hurtt, George; Wise, Marshall A.

    2013-06-01

    Proposed climate mitigation measures do not account for direct biophysical climate impacts of land-use change (LUC), nor do the stabilization targets modeled for the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To examine the significance of such effects on global and regional patterns of climate change, a baseline and alternative scenario of future anthropogenic activity are simulated within the Integrated Earth System Model, which couples the Global Change Assessment Model, Global Land-use Model, and Community Earth System Model. The alternative scenario has high biofuel utilization and approximately 50% less global forest cover compared to the baseline, standard RCP4.5 scenario. Both scenarios stabilize radiative forcing from atmospheric constituents at 4.5 W/m2 by 2100. Thus, differences between their climate predictions quantify the biophysical effects of LUC. Offline radiative transfer and land model simulations are also utilized to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms driving the coupled response. Boreal deforestation is found to strongly influence climate due to increased albedo coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Globally, the alternative scenario yields a 21st century warming trend that is 0.5 °C cooler than baseline, driven by a 1 W/m2 mean decrease in radiative forcing that is distributed unevenly around the globe. Some regions are cooler in the alternative scenario than in 2005. These results demonstrate that neither climate change nor actual radiative forcing are uniquely related to atmospheric forcing targets such as those found in the RCP’s, but rather depend on particulars of the socioeconomic pathways followed to meet each target.

  20. Adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn;

    2011-01-01

    Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling...... framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed...... down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US2.3 to US2.3toUS7...

  1. Understanding climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Topics covered in this book are: include volcanism; biogeochemistry; land hydrology; modeling climate; past and present; cryosphere; paleoclimates; land-surface processes; tropical oceans and the global atmosphere; clouds and atmospheric radiation; aeronomy and planetary atmospheres; and modeling future climate changes. The papers presented include uptake by the Atlantic Ocean of excess atmospheric carbon dioxide and radiocarbon

  2. Considering only first-order effects? : How simplifications lead to unrealistic technology optimism in climate change mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Arvesen, Anders; Bright, Ryan M.; Hertwich, Edgar G.

    2011-01-01

    This article challenges the notion that energy efficiency and ‘clean’ energy technologies can deliver sufficient degrees of climate change mitigation. By six arguments not widely recognized in the climate policy arena, we argue that unrealistic technology optimism exists in current climate change mitigation assessments, and, consequently, world energy and climate policy. The overarching theme of the arguments is that incomplete knowledge of indirect effects, and neglect of interactions betwee...

  3. The global climate change and its effect on power generation in Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frequent and intense natural calamities, sea level rises and salinity have been causing adverse impacts on economic, environmental and social aspects of hundreds of millions people across the world. Although a series of studies was undertaken on social and environment impacts, very little information is available on power generation affected by climate change. The power generation in developing countries, especially Bangladesh, whose existence is severely threatened by the rise of sea levels, salinity, the ambient temperature, drought and flood, is not well studied and reported. Therefore, the primary objective of this study was to identify the risks imposed by global climate change on existing and projected power generation in Bangladesh. The climate effect parameters and their impacts on power generation capacity are studied and analysed. The findings indicate that all existing and future power plants and their generation across the country will be affected by global climate change. - Highlights: • Analysed the future climate change impact on power generation in Bangladesh. • Projected future power generation in Bangladesh up to 2100. • Power plant in coastal areas will experience threat of inundation and salinity. • Northwest region power generation in Bangladesh will face more drought threat. • Power generation in middle region of Bangladesh will be in high risk of flood

  4. Climate Change and Agriculture in the U.S.: Effects and Adaptation (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, M. K.; Rippey, B.; Walthall, C. L.; Hatfield, J.; Backlund, P. W.; Lengnick, L.; Marshall, E.

    2013-12-01

    Agriculture in the United States has followed a path of continual adaptation to a wide range of factors throughout its history. However, observational evidence, supported by an understanding of the physical climate system, shows that human-induced climate change is underway in the U.S. and even now causing changes for which there is no historical reference for producers. Temperatures have increased and precipitation patterns have changed; the incidence, frequency, and extent of pest infestations have been altered, as well as the natural resource base (water, air, and soils) upon which production depends. Each factor challenges agricultural management as atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases rise. These trends are likely to continue over the next century. Importantly, a gap exists between U.S. agricultural producers and managers' needs related to climate-driven problems and the information that research currently offers them. In the past, agricultural research into climate change effects has largely focused on mean values of precipitation and temperature. Today's management requirements, however, often demand immediate response on shorter time scales to address abrupt, often novel needs. Further complicating this reality, future decisions will likely require even greater emphasis on managing under increasing levels of uncertainty, and planning for and adjusting to the extremes. Research is moving to better address these emerging issues for the relevant timescales and parameters in order to allow the formulation of improved and resilient management strategies that apply to a future in which past experience has become less applicable. A climate-ready U.S. agricultural system requires easy access to useable climate knowledge and technical resources, improved climate risk management strategies, new processes to support effective adaptive actions, and the development of sustainable production systems resilient to climate effects. Mainstreaming climate knowledge

  5. Effects of atmospheric and climate change at the timberline of the Central European Alps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieser, Gerhard; Matyssek, Rainer; Luzian, Roland; Zwerger, Peter; Pindur, Peter; Oberhuber, Walter; Gruber, Andreas

    2009-06-01

    This review considers potential effects of atmospheric change and climate warming within the timberline ecotone of the Central European Alps. After focusing on the impacts of ozone (O(3)) and rising atmospheric CO(2) concentration, effects of climate warming on the carbon and water balance of timberline trees and forests will be outlined towards conclusions about changes in tree growth and treeline dynamics.Presently, ambient ground-level O(3) concentrations do not exert crucial stress on adult conifers at the timberline of the Central European Alps. In response to elevated atmospheric CO(2)Larix decidua showed growth increase, whereas no such response was found in Pinus uncinata. Overall climate warming appears as the factor responsible for the observed growth stimulation of timberline trees.Increased seedling re-establishment in the Central European Alps however, resulted from invasion into potential habitats rather than upward migration due to climate change, although seedlings will only reach tree size upon successful coupling with the atmosphere and thus loosing the beneficial microclimate of low stature vegetation.In conclusion, future climate extremes are more likely than the gradual temperature increase to control treeline dynamics in the Central European Alps. PMID:21379395

  6. Quantifying the effect of trend, fluctuation, and extreme event of climate change on ecosystem productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yupeng; Yu, Deyong; Su, Yun; Hao, Ruifang

    2014-12-01

    Climate change comprises three fractions of trend, fluctuation, and extreme event. Assessing the effect of climate change on terrestrial ecosystem requires an understanding of the action mechanism of these fractions, respectively. This study examined 11 years of remotely sensed-derived net primary productivity (NPP) to identify the impacts of the trend and fluctuation of climate change as well as extremely low temperatures caused by a freezing disaster on ecosystem productivity in Hunan province, China. The partial least squares regression model was used to evaluate the contributions of temperature, precipitation, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) to NPP variation. A climatic signal decomposition and contribution assessment model was proposed to decompose climate factors into trend and fluctuation components. Then, we quantitatively evaluated the contributions of each component of climatic factors to NPP variation. The results indicated that the total contribution of the temperature, precipitation, and PAR to NPP variation from 2001 to 2011 in Hunan province is 85 %, and individual contributions of the temperature, precipitation, and PAR to NPP variation are 44 % (including 34 % trend contribution and 10 % fluctuation contribution), 5 % (including 4 % trend contribution and 1 % fluctuation contribution), and 36 % (including 30 % trend contribution and 6 % fluctuation contribution), respectively. The contributions of temperature fluctuation-driven NPP were higher in the north and lower in the south, and the contributions of precipitation trend-driven NPP and PAR fluctuation-driven NPP are higher in the west and lower in the east. As an instance of occasionally triggered disturbance in 2008, extremely low temperatures and a freezing disaster produced an abrupt decrease of NPP in forest and grass ecosystems. These results prove that the climatic trend change brought about great impacts on ecosystem productivity and that climatic fluctuations and

  7. Climate Change Effects on Heat Waves and Future Heat Wave-Associated IHD Mortality in Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Zacharias

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The influence of future climate change on the occurrence of heat waves and its implications for heat wave-related mortality due to ischemic heart diseases (IHD in Germany is studied. Simulations of 19 regional climate models with a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° forced by the moderate climate change scenario A1B are analyzed. Three model time periods of 30 years are evaluated, representing present climate (1971–2000, near future climate (2021–2050, and remote future climate (2069–2098. Heat waves are defined as periods of at least three consecutive days with daily mean air temperature above the 97.5th percentile of the all-season temperature distribution. Based on the model simulations, future heat waves in Germany will be significantly more frequent, longer lasting and more intense. By the end of the 21st century, the number of heat waves will be tripled compared to present climate. Additionally, the average duration of heat waves will increase by 25%, accompanied by an increase of the average temperature during heat waves by about 1 K. Regional analyses show that stronger than average climate change effects are observed particularly in the southern regions of Germany. Furthermore, we investigated climate change impacts on IHD mortality in Germany applying temperature projections from 19 regional climate models to heat wave mortality relationships identified in a previous study. Future IHD excess deaths were calculated both in the absence and presence of some acclimatization (i.e., that people are able to physiologically acclimatize to enhanced temperature levels in the future time periods by 0% and 50%, respectively. In addition to changes in heat wave frequency, we incorporated also changes in heat wave intensity and duration into the future mortality evaluations. The results indicate that by the end of the 21st century the annual number of IHD excess deaths in Germany attributable to heat waves is expected to rise by factor 2

  8. Recent Advances in Understanding the Effects of Climate Change on Coral Reefs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew S. Hoey

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is one of the greatest threats to the persistence of coral reefs. Sustained and ongoing increases in ocean temperatures and acidification are altering the structure and function of reefs globally. Here, we summarise recent advances in our understanding of the effects of climate change on scleractinian corals and reef fish. Although there is considerable among-species variability in responses to increasing temperature and seawater chemistry, changing temperature regimes are likely to have the greatest influence on the structure of coral and fish assemblages, at least over short–medium timeframes. Recent evidence of increases in coral bleaching thresholds, local genetic adaptation and inheritance of heat tolerance suggest that coral populations may have some capacity to respond to warming, although the extent to which these changes can keep pace with changing environmental conditions is unknown. For coral reef fishes, current evidence indicates increasing seawater temperature will be a major determinant of future assemblages, through both habitat degradation and direct effects on physiology and behaviour. The effects of climate change are, however, being compounded by a range of anthropogenic disturbances, which may undermine the capacity of coral reef organisms to acclimate and/or adapt to specific changes in environmental conditions.

  9. A simple approach to distinguish land-use and climate-change effects on watershed hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomer, Mark D.; Schilling, Keith E.

    2009-09-01

    SummaryImpacts of climate change on watershed hydrology are subtle compared to cycles of drought and surplus precipitation (PPT), and difficult to separate from effects of land-use change. In the US Midwest, increasing baseflow has been more attributed to increased annual cropping than climate change. The agricultural changes have led to increased fertilizer use and nutrient losses, contributing to Gulf of Mexico hypoxia. In a 25-yr, small-watershed experiment in Iowa, when annual hydrologic budgets were accrued between droughts, a coupled water-energy budget (ecohydrologic) analysis showed effects of tillage and climate on hydrology could be distinguished. The fraction of PPT discharged increased with conservation tillage and time. However, unsatisfied evaporative demand (PET - Hargreaves method) increased under conservation tillage, but decreased with time. A conceptual model was developed and a similar analysis conducted on long-term (>1920s) records from four large, agricultural Midwest watersheds underlain by fine-grained tills. At least three of four watersheds showed decreases in PET, and increases in PPT, discharge, baseflow and PPT:PET ratios ( p Midwest watersheds, especially since the 1970s. By inference, climate change has increased susceptibility of nutrients to water transport, exacerbating Gulf of Mexico hypoxia.

  10. The effect of climate change and adaptation policy on agricultural production in Eastern Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kahsay, Goytom Abraha; Hansen, Lars Gårn

    2016-01-01

    We estimate the production function for agricultural output in Eastern Africa incorporating climate variables disaggregated into growing and non-growing seasons. We find a substantial negative effect of within growing season variance of precipitation. We simulate predicted climate change for the...... region and find a resulting output reduction of between 1.2% and 4.5%. Our simulation also demonstrates substantial potential for economic benefits from mitigating the effects of within growing season precipitation variability through conventional technologies such as flexible planting and rainwater...

  11. Population and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Landis MacKellar, F.; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2000-11-01

    Population and Climate Change provides the first systematic in-depth treatment of links between two major themes of the 21st century: population growth (and associated demographic trends such as aging) and climate change. It is written by a multidisciplinary team of authors from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis who integrate both natural science and social science perspectives in a way that is comprehensible to members of both communities. The book will be of primary interest to researchers in the fields of climate change, demography, and economics. It will also be useful to policy-makers and NGOs dealing with issues of population dynamics and climate change, and to teachers and students in courses such as environmental studies, demography, climatology, economics, earth systems science, and international relations.

  12. Creationism & Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, S.

    2009-12-01

    Although creationists focus on the biological sciences, recently creationists have also expanded their attacks to include the earth sciences, especially on the topic of climate change. The creationist effort to deny climate change, in addition to evolution and radiometric dating, is part of a broader denial of the methodology and validity of science itself. Creationist misinformation can pose a serious problem for science educators, who are further hindered by the poor treatment of the earth sciences and climate change in state science standards. Recent changes to Texas’ science standards, for example, require that students learn “different views on the existence of global warming.” Because of Texas’ large influence on the national textbook market, textbooks presenting non-scientific “different views” about climate change—or simply omitting the subject entirely because of the alleged “controversy”—could become part of K-12 classrooms across the country.

  13. Criminality and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Rob

    2016-08-01

    The impacts of climate change imply a reconceptualization of environment-related criminality. Criminology can offer insight into the definitions and dynamics of this behaviour, and outline potential areas of redress.

  14. Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Farm Production and Profitability: Dynamic Simulation Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Cai, Ruohong; Bergstrom, John C.; Mullen, Jeffrey D.; Wetzstein, Michael E.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, a dynamic optimization model was developed to simulate how farm-level realized price and profitability respond to yield change which was induced by climate change. Producers' acreage response was included in the dynamic model considering crop rotation effect. In the crop rotation model, a modified Bellman equation was used to dynamically optimize the net present value of farm profit for a five-year interval. This simulation process was repeated through the year 2050. Then yield...

  15. Potential effects of climate change on inundation patterns in the Amazon Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Langerwisch

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Floodplain forests, namely the Várzea and Igapó, cover an area of more than 97 000 km2. A key factor for their function and diversity is annual flooding. Increasing air temperature and higher precipitation variability caused by climate change are expected to shift the flooding regime during this century, and thereby impact floodplain ecosystems, their biodiversity and riverine ecosystem services. To assess the effects of climate change on the flooding regime, we use the Dynamic Global Vegetation and Hydrology Model LPJmL, enhanced by a scheme that realistically simulates monthly flooded area. Simulation results of discharge and inundation under contemporary conditions compare well against site-level measurements and observations. The changes of calculated inundation duration and area under climate change projections from 24 IPCC AR4 climate models differ regionally towards the end of the 21st century. In all, 70% of the 24 climate projections agree on an increase of flooded area in about one third of the basin. Inundation duration increases dramatically by on average three months in western and around one month in eastern Amazonia. The time of high- and low-water peak shifts by up to three months. Additionally, we find a decrease in the number of extremely dry years and in the probability of the occurrence of three consecutive extremely dry years. The total number of extremely wet years does not change drastically but the probability of three consecutive extremely wet years decreases by up to 30% in the east and increases by up to 25% in the west. These changes implicate significant shifts in regional vegetation and climate, and will dramatically alter carbon and water cycles.

  16. Investigating uncertainty of climate change effect on entering runoff to Urmia Lake Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razmara, P.; Massah Bavani, A. R.; Motiee, H.; Torabi, S.; Lotfi, S.

    2013-02-01

    The largest lake in Iran, Urmia Lake, has been faced with a sharp decline in water surface in recent years. This decline is putting the survival of Urmia Lake at risk. Due to the fact that the water surface of lakes is affected directly by the entering runoff, herein we study the effect of climate change on the runoff entering Urmia Lake. Ten climate models among AOGCM-AR4 models in the future time period 2013-2040 will be used, under the emission scenarios A2 and B1. The downscaling method used in this research is the change factor-LARS method, while for simulating the runoff, the artificial neural network was applied. First, both the 30-yr and monthly scenarios of climate change, temperature, and precipitation of the region were generated and weighted by the Beta function (β). Then, the cumulative density function (cdf) for each month was computed. Calculating the scenarios of climate change and precipitation at levels of 25, 50, and 75% of cdf functions, and introducing them into LARS-wg model, the time series of temperature and precipitation in the region in the future time period were computed considering the uncertainty of climate variability. Then, introducing the time series of temperature and precipitation at different risk levels into the artificial neural network, the future runoff was generated. The findings illustrate a decrease of streamflow into Urmia Lake in scenario A2 at the three risk levels 25, 50, and 75% by, respectively, -21, -13, and -0.3%, and an increase by, respectively, 4.7, 13.8, and 18.9% in scenario B1. Also, scenario A2 with its prediction of a warm and dry climate suggests more critical conditions for the future compared to scenario B1 and its cool, humid climate.

  17. Investigating uncertainty of climate change effect on entering runoff to Urmia Lake Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Razmara

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The largest lake in Iran, Urmia Lake, has been faced with a sharp decline in water surface in recent years. This decline is putting the survival of Urmia Lake at risk. Due to the fact that the water surface of lakes is affected directly by the entering runoff, herein we study the effect of climate change on the runoff entering Urmia Lake. Ten climate models among AOGCM-AR4 models in the future time period 2013–2040 will be used, under the emission scenarios A2 and B1. The downscaling method used in this research is the change factor-LARS method, while for simulating the runoff, the artificial neural network was applied. First, both the 30-yr and monthly scenarios of climate change, temperature, and precipitation of the region were generated and weighted by the Beta function (β. Then, the cumulative density function (cdf for each month was computed. Calculating the scenarios of climate change and precipitation at levels of 25, 50, and 75% of cdf functions, and introducing them into LARS-wg model, the time series of temperature and precipitation in the region in the future time period were computed considering the uncertainty of climate variability. Then, introducing the time series of temperature and precipitation at different risk levels into the artificial neural network, the future runoff was generated. The findings illustrate a decrease of streamflow into Urmia Lake in scenario A2 at the three risk levels 25, 50, and 75% by, respectively, −21, −13, and −0.3%, and an increase by, respectively, 4.7, 13.8, and 18.9% in scenario B1. Also, scenario A2 with its prediction of a warm and dry climate suggests more critical conditions for the future compared to scenario B1 and its cool, humid climate.

  18. Potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems of the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, M.V.; Pace, M.L.; Mather, J.R.; Murdoch, Peter S.; Howarth, R.W.; Folt, C.L.; Chen, C.-Y.; Hemond, Harold F.; Flebbe, P.A.; Driscoll, C.T.

    1997-01-01

    Numerous freshwater ecosystems, dense concentrations of humans along the eastern seaboard, extensive forests and a history of intensive land use distinguish the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region. Human population densities are forecast to increase in portions of the region at the same time that climate is expected to be changing. Consequently, the effects of humans and climatic change are likely to affect freshwater ecosystems within the region interactively. The general climate, at present, is humid continental, and the region receives abundant precipitation. Climatic projections for a 2 ??CO2 atmosphere, however, suggest warmer and drier conditions for much of this region. Annual temperature increases ranging from 3-5??C are projected, with the greatest increases occurring in autumn or winter. According to a water balance model, the projected increase in temperature will result in greater rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration. This could cause a 21 and 31% reduction in annual stream flow in the southern and northern sections of the region, respectively, with greatest reductions occurring in autumn and winter. The amount and duration of snow cover is also projected to decrease across the region, and summer convective thunderstorms are likely to decrease in frequency but increase in intensity. The dual effects of climate change and direct anthropogenic stress will most likely alter hydrological and biogeochemical processes, and, hence, the floral and faunal communities of the region's freshwater ecosystems. For example, the projected increase in evapotranspiration and evaporation could eliminate most bog ecosystems, and increases in water temperature may increase bioaccumulation, and possibly biomagnification, of organic and inorganic contaminants. Not all change may be adverse. For example, a decrease in runoff may reduce the intensity of ongoing estuarine eutrophication, and acidification of aquatic habitats during the spring snowmelt period may be

  19. Quantification of climate change effects on extreme precipitation used for high resolution hydrologic design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    Design of urban drainage structures should include the climatic changes anticipated over the technical lifetime of the system. In Northern Europe climate changes implies increasing occurrences of extreme rainfall. Three approaches to quantify the impact of climate changes on extreme rainfall are ...

  20. Climate-change effects on soils: Accelerated weathering, soil carbon and elemental cycling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qafoku, Nikolla

    2015-04-01

    Climate change [i.e., high atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations (≥400 ppm); increasing air temperatures (2-4°C or greater); significant and/or abrupt changes in daily, seasonal, and inter-annual temperature; changes in the wet/dry cycles; intensive rainfall and/or heavy storms; extended periods of drought; extreme frost; heat waves and increased fire frequency] is and will significantly affect soil properties and fertility, water resources, food quantity and quality, and environmental quality. Biotic processes that consume atmospheric CO2, and create organic carbon (C) that is either reprocessed to CO2 or stored in soils are the subject of active current investigations, with great concern over the influence of climate change. In addition, abiotic C cycling and its influence on the inorganic C pool in soils is a fundamental global process in which acidic atmospheric CO2 participates in the weathering of carbonate and silicate minerals, ultimately delivering bicarbonate and Ca2+ or other cations that precipitate in the form of carbonates in soils or are transported to the rivers, lakes, and oceans. Soil responses to climate change will be complex, and there are many uncertainties and unresolved issues. The objective of the review is to initiate and further stimulate a discussion about some important and challenging aspects of climate-change effects on soils, such as accelerated weathering of soil minerals and resulting C and elemental fluxes in and out of soils, soil/geo-engineering methods used to increase C sequestration in soils, soil organic matter (SOM) protection, transformation and mineralization, and SOM temperature sensitivity. This review reports recent discoveries, identifies key research needs, and highlights opportunities offered by the climate-change effects on soils.

  1. Climate Change in Africa: Impacts and Effects on the Inhabitants of the Lake Chad Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abubakar, B.; Tahir, S. M.; Olisa, O.

    2009-05-01

    The Department of Energy and Climate Change defined climate as the average weather experienced over a long period. This includes temperature, wind and rainfall patterns. The climate of the Earth is not static, and has changed many times in response to a variety of natural causes. Due to human activities in emmiting green house gases has resulted the Earth to get warmed by 0.74°C over the last hundred years. Around 0.4°C of this warming has occurred since the 1970s. Climate is now one of the major phenomenon threatening lives and humanity in general since the beginning of industrial revolution. Climate exerts a profound influence on the lives of poor populations in the Lake Chad region of Africa who depend on fishing and crop cultivation for livelihood and sustenance, who are unprotected against climate-related diseases, who lacked secure access to water and food and who are vulnerable to hydro meteorological hazard. The effects of climate change on the study area are many and include diminishing resources and conflicts over the available limited water resources. The Lake Chad region is a fragile area with high climate variability and extremes of weather. As this inland water is used for domestic and agricultural purposes, salt mining, as well as transportation by Nigerians, Nigeriens, Chadian and Cameroonians, it is an area of trans-boundary water conflicts. This paper examines the part played by climate change in the decline of fishery resources and livelihood activities in the Lake Chad region. Data from field studies, structured interview and secondary sources show that fish catches and livelihood activities have declined tremendously in recent times due to several factors including overexploitation and increasing demands on the aquatic resources. Findings from the study show that droughty periods have resulted in the reduction of open lake water surface from about 25,000 km2 in 1973 to less than 2,000 km2 in the 1990s. This has led to the diminishing aquatic

  2. Climate change experiments in Hamburg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubasch, U. [DKRZ, Hamburg (Germany)

    1995-12-31

    Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the simulations with present day conditions (1980-1990) is too late, because then a considerable part of the warming since the beginning of the industrialization (ca. 1750) has been neglected. Furthermore it has only recently become clear that the sulphat-aerosols play an important role in the present day climate and in the future climate. The effect of the sulphat aerosols has first been simulated in a number of equilibrium simulations with mixed layer models, but nowadays with globally coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models

  3. Inhalation anaesthetics and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mads Peter Sulbæk; Sander, S P; Nielsen, O J;

    2010-01-01

    Although the increasing abundance of CO(2) in our atmosphere is the main driver of the observed climate change, it is the cumulative effect of all forcing agents that dictate the direction and magnitude of the change, and many smaller contributors are also at play. Isoflurane, desflurane, and...... sevoflurane are widely used inhalation anaesthetics. Emissions of these compounds contribute to radiative forcing of climate change. To quantitatively assess the impact of the anaesthetics on the forcing of climate, detailed information on their properties of heat (infrared, IR) absorption and atmospheric...

  4. Effects of Climate Change on Regional Crop Production in Eastern Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, S. T.; Mangan, J. M.

    2009-12-01

    Regional climate changes can significantly alter crop yields for agriculturally important areas. Berks County, PA, is an agrarian community whose crop production is typical of southeastern Pennsylvania, with corn as a major crop. Mean annual temperatures in Pennsylvania are predicted to increase by 4 degrees C and precipitation is expected to increase 5% by 2100. We examined changes in 20th Century Berks County crop yields, particularly corn, in response to yearly variations in temperature and precipitation. Crop yields for corn are predicted by models to increase up to a 29 degrees C threshold, beyond which yields will significantly decrease. This study quantifies the effects of recent climate change on Berks County crop production and predicts potential changes for the future. It is important to consider regional climate change effects if we are to fully understand the impacts of global change on food crop production. This study also incorporates anecdotal data from farmers to note their perceptions of crop productivity as related to environmental changes and to determine other factors that may affect farming practices and crop yields.

  5. Climate change: Recent findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the late eighties several reports have been published on climate change and sea level rise. In the meantime insights may have changed due to the availability of better and more observations and/or more advanced climate models. The aim of this report is to present the most recent findings with respect to climate change, in particular of sea level rise, storm surges and river peak flows. These climate factors are important for the safety of low-lying areas with respect to coastal erosion and flooding. In the first chapters a short review is presented of a few of the eighties reports. Furthermore, the predictions by state of the art climate models at that time are given. The reports from the eighties should be considered as 'old' information, whereas the IPCC supplement and work, for example, by Wigley should be considered as new information. To assess the latest findings two experts in this field were interviewed: dr J. Oerlemans and dr C.J.E. Schuurmans, a climate expert from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). Their views are presented together with results published in recent papers on the subject. On the basis of this assessment, the report presents current knowledge regarding predictions of climate change (including sea-level rise) over the next century, together with an assessment of the uncertainties associated with these predictions. 14 figs., 11 tabs., 24 refs

  6. Potential effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems of the Great Plains of North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Covich, A.P.; Fritz, S.C.; Lamb, P.J.; Marzolf, R.D.; Matthews, W.J.; Poiani, K.A.; Prepas, E.E.; Richman, M.B.; Winter, T.C.

    1997-01-01

    The Great Plains landscape is less topographically complex than most other regions within North America, but diverse aquatic ecosystems, such as playas, pothole lakes, ox-bow lakes, springs, groundwater aquifers, intermittent and ephemeral streams, as well as large rivers and wetlands, are highly dynamic and responsive to extreme climatic fluctuations. We review the evidence for climatic change that demonstrates the historical importance of extremes in north-south differences in summer temperatures and east-west differences in aridity across four large subregions. These physical driving forces alter density stratification, deoxygenation, decomposition and salinity. Biotic community composition and associated ecosystem processes of productivity and nutrient cycling respond rapidly to these climatically driven dynamics. Ecosystem processes also respond to cultural effects such as dams and diversions of water for irrigation, waste dilution and urban demands for drinking water and industrial uses. Distinguishing climatic from cultural effects in future models of aquatic ecosystem functioning will require more refinement in both climatic and economic forecasting. There is a need, for example, to predict how long-term climatic forecasts (based on both ENSO and global warming simulations) relate to the permanence and productivity of shallow water ecosystems. Aquatic ecologists, hydrologists, climatologists and geographers have much to discuss regarding the synthesis of available data and the design of future interdisciplinary research. ?? 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Butterfly effect: understanding and mitigating the local consequences of climate change impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: The Butterfly Effect is the notion that tiny differences in initial conditions are amplified in the evolution of a dynamic system and directly affect the eventual outcome. In 1963 mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz proposed that the flapping of a butterfly's wing would cause a disturbance that becomes exponentially amplified so as to eventually affect large-scale atmospheric motion. This was to illustrate the 'sensitive dependence on initial conditions'; sensitivity also true in affecting the extent of damages experienced as a result of climate change. In a climate change context, The Butterfly Effect suggests the local consequences of climate change impacts will depend on their interaction with the economic, environmental, institutional, technological and demographic attributes unique to a city or region. It is this mix of factors that will determine the extent, both positively and negatively, to which climate change will be experienced locally. For a truly effective climate change response, it is imperative that regional risk assessments and adaptation strategies take into account not only the projected impacts but the full range of flow-on implications of those impacts and their sensitivity factors. Understanding of the sensitivity factors that will amplify or mitigate climate change impacts and implications enables government and business leaders to calculate the likely extent of localised damages if no adaptation is undertaken. This allows industries and communities to evaluate the likely significance of a particular impact and to consider how to adjust or counter the sensitivity factor to build resilience and reduce vulnerability. Thus, it also assists in the local prioritisation of issues and responses. Such a strategic response can also mean the required adaptation measures may be less extensive and thereby require less cost and time to implement. This paper discusses the flow-on implications of Australia's projected climate change

  8. Climate effect of ozone changes caused by present and future air traffic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ponater, M.; Sausen, R.; Feneberg, B. [DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Wessling (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere; Roeckner, E. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

    1998-08-01

    The potential of aircraft-induced ozone changes to significantly enhance the climate impact of air traffic due to CO{sub 2}-emissions is investigated by means of simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model, coupled to a mixed layer ocean model. Results from several numerical experiments are presented, based on ozone increase patterns for 1992 aviation and on a future scenario for the year 2015. The climate signal is statistically significant for both time slices. Its strength is of comparable magnitude to that arising from aircraft CO{sub 2} emissions, thus meaning a nonnegligible contribution to the total effect. There are indications of a characteristic signature of the aircraft ozone related temperature response pattern, distinctly different from that typically associated with the increase of a well-mixed greenhouse gas. Likewise, the climate sensitivity to nonuniform ozone changes including a strong concentration perturbation at the tropopause appears to he higher than the climate sensitivity to uniform changes of a greenhouse gas. In a hierarchy of experiments based on an aircraft-related ozone perturbation with fixed structure (but increasing amplitude), the climate signal depends in a nonlinear way from the radiative forcing. (orig.) 44 refs.

  9. NEW PHYTOTRON FOR STUDYING THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON PLANT PATHOGENS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Lodovica Gullino

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its recent fourth assessment report predicts that, because of higher concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, until 2100 the global mean temperature would rise between 0.6 and 4°C, in combination with changes in precipitation and an increased frequency of extreme weather events. Despite this trend, the extent and mechanisms through which elevated CO2 affects plant diseases remain uncertain. Increases in CO2 and temperatures are also expected to induce complex effects on plant pathogens. Although re- 10 search on the effects of climate change continues to be limited, new tools are permitting to study the effects of climate variables on infection rates in the case of some pathosystems. The shortage of critical epidemiological data on individual plant diseases needs to be addressed using experimental approaches. A useful tool for such types of studies is represented by phytotrons. Hereby, a new phytotron typology, built with the specific aim of studying the effect of climate change on plant disease, is described. Beginning from a general plant overview, key mechanical and electrical systems are described (i.e. air temperature and relative humidity control, lighting and CO2 control system etc. as environmental parameters and operation cycle are summarized. In particular both parameters which could be set and monitored and those measured and stored are reported. After a suitable testing period, several operation cycles were performed in order to assess the control system’s stability and to optimize the management of all systems involved and the first experimental trials were carried out. The effect of three different simulated climatic conditions: 450 ppm of CO2 with standard temperature (ranging from 18 to 24°C or 18 to 26°C, elevated CO2 (800 ppm with standard temperature and elevated CO2 (800 ppm with elevated temperature (4°C higher than standard on the development of grape

  10. The effects of climate change and extreme wildfire events on runoff erosion over a mountain watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gould, Gregory K.; Liu, Mingliang; Barber, Michael E.; Cherkauer, Keith A.; Robichaud, Peter R.; Adam, Jennifer C.

    2016-05-01

    Increases in wildfire occurrence and severity under an altered climate can substantially impact terrestrial ecosystems through enhancing runoff erosion. Improved prediction tools that provide high resolution spatial information are necessary for location-specific soil conservation and watershed management. However, quantifying the magnitude of soil erosion and its interactions with climate, hydrological processes, and fire occurrences across a large region (>10,000 km2) is challenging because of the large computational requirements needed to capture the fine-scale complexities of the land surface that govern erosion. We apply the physically-based coupled Variable Capacity Infiltration-Water Erosion Prediction Project (VIC-WEPP) model to study how wildfire occurrences can enhance soil erosion in a future climate over a representative watershed in the northern Rocky Mountains - the Salmon River Basin (SRB) in central Idaho. While the VIC model simulates hydrologic processes at larger scales, the WEPP model simulates erosion at the hillslope scale by sampling representative hillslopes. VIC-WEPP model results indicate that SRB streamflow will have an earlier shift in peak flow by one to two months under future climate scenarios in response to a declining snowpack under warming temperatures. The magnitude of peak flow increases with each higher severity fire scenario; and under the highest fire severity, the peak flow is shifted even earlier, exacerbating the effects of climate change. Similarly, sediment yield also increases with higher fire severities for both historical and future climates. Sediment yield is more sensitive to fire occurrence than to climate change by one to two orders of magnitude, which is not unexpected given that our fire scenarios were applied basin wide as worst case scenarios. In reality, fires only occur over portions of the basin in any given year and subsequent years' vegetation regrowth reduces erosion. However, the effects of climate

  11. Can Climate Change Negotiations Succeed?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Hovi

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available More than two decades of climate change negotiations have produced a series of global climate agreements, such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Copenhagen Accords, but have nevertheless made very limited progress in curbing global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper considers whether negotiations can succeed in reaching an agreement that effectively addresses the climate change problem. To be effective, a climate agreement must cause substantial emissions reductions either directly (in the agreement's own lifetime or indirectly (by paving the way for a future agreement that causes substantial emissions reductions directly. To reduce global emissions substantially, an agreement must satisfy three conditions. Firstly, participation must be both comprehensive and stable. Secondly, participating countries must accept deep commitments. Finally, the agreement must obtain high compliance rates. We argue that three types of enforcement will be crucial to fulfilling these three conditions: (1 incentives for countries to ratify with deep commitments, (2 incentives for countries that have ratified with deep commitments to abstain from withdrawal, and (3 incentives for countries having ratified with deep commitments to comply with them. Based on assessing the constraints that characterize the climate change negotiations, we contend that adopting such three-fold potent enforcement will likely be politically infeasible, not only within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, but also in the framework of a more gradual approach. Therefore, one should not expect climate change negotiations to succeed in producing an effective future agreement—either directly or indirectly.

  12. Quantifying the climate impacts of albedo changes due to biofuel production: a comparison with biogeochemical effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lifecycle analysis is a tool widely used to evaluate the climate impact of greenhouse gas emissions attributable to the production and use of biofuels. In this paper we employ an augmented lifecycle framework that includes climate impacts from changes in surface albedo due to land use change. We consider eleven land-use change scenarios for the cultivation of biomass for middle distillate fuel production, and compare our results to previous estimates of lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions for the same set of land-use change scenarios in terms of CO2e per unit of fuel energy. We find that two of the land-use change scenarios considered demonstrate a warming effect due to changes in surface albedo, compared to conventional fuel, the largest of which is for replacement of desert land with salicornia cultivation. This corresponds to 222 gCO2e/MJ, equivalent to 3890% and 247% of the lifecycle GHG emissions of fuels derived from salicornia and crude oil, respectively. Nine of the land-use change scenarios considered demonstrate a cooling effect, the largest of which is for the replacement of tropical rainforests with soybean cultivation. This corresponds to − 161 gCO2e/MJ, or − 28% and − 178% of the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of fuels derived from soybean and crude oil, respectively. These results indicate that changes in surface albedo have the potential to dominate the climate impact of biofuels, and we conclude that accounting for changes in surface albedo is necessary for a complete assessment of the aggregate climate impacts of biofuel production and use. (paper)

  13. Quantifying the climate impacts of albedo changes due to biofuel production: a comparison with biogeochemical effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caiazzo, Fabio; Malina, Robert; Staples, Mark D.; Wolfe, Philip J.; Yim, Steve H. L.; Barrett, Steven R. H.

    2014-01-01

    Lifecycle analysis is a tool widely used to evaluate the climate impact of greenhouse gas emissions attributable to the production and use of biofuels. In this paper we employ an augmented lifecycle framework that includes climate impacts from changes in surface albedo due to land use change. We consider eleven land-use change scenarios for the cultivation of biomass for middle distillate fuel production, and compare our results to previous estimates of lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions for the same set of land-use change scenarios in terms of CO2e per unit of fuel energy. We find that two of the land-use change scenarios considered demonstrate a warming effect due to changes in surface albedo, compared to conventional fuel, the largest of which is for replacement of desert land with salicornia cultivation. This corresponds to 222 gCO2e/MJ, equivalent to 3890% and 247% of the lifecycle GHG emissions of fuels derived from salicornia and crude oil, respectively. Nine of the land-use change scenarios considered demonstrate a cooling effect, the largest of which is for the replacement of tropical rainforests with soybean cultivation. This corresponds to - 161 gCO2e/MJ, or - 28% and - 178% of the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of fuels derived from soybean and crude oil, respectively. These results indicate that changes in surface albedo have the potential to dominate the climate impact of biofuels, and we conclude that accounting for changes in surface albedo is necessary for a complete assessment of the aggregate climate impacts of biofuel production and use.

  14. Effects of vegetation feedback on future climate change over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Miao; Wang, Guiling; Pal, Jeremy S.

    2016-06-01

    This study investigates the impact of climate-vegetation interaction on future climate changes over West Africa using a regional climate model with synchronous coupling between climate and natural vegetation, the RegCM4.3.4-CLM-CN-DV. Based on the lateral boundary conditions supplied by MIROC-ESM and CESM under the greenhouse gas Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, significant increase of vegetation density is projected over the southern part of Sahel, with an increase of leaf area index and a conversion from grass to woody plants around 7-10°N of Sahel. Regardless of whether the model treats vegetation as static or dynamic, it projects an increase of precipitation in eastern Sahel and decrease in the west. The feedback due to projected vegetation change tends to cause a wet signal, enhancing the projected increase or alleviate the decrease of precipitation in JJA in the areas of projected vegetation increase. Its impact is negligible in DJF. Vegetation feedback slightly enhances projected warming in most of West Africa during JJA, but has a significant cooling effect during DJF in regions of strong vegetation changes. Future changes of surface runoff are projected to follow the direction of precipitation changes. While dynamic vegetation feedback enhances the projected increase of soil water content in JJA, it has a drying effect in DJF. The magnitude of projected ET changes is reduced in JJA and increased in DJF due to vegetation dynamics. A high sensitivity of climate projection to dynamic vegetation feedback was found mainly in semiarid areas of West Africa, with little signal in the wet tropics.

  15. Effects of simultaneous climate change and geomorphic evolution on thermal characteristics of a shallow Alaskan lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, J.R.; Schindler, D.E.; Balistrieri, L.S.; Ruggerone, G.T.

    2011-01-01

    We used a hydrodynamics model to assess the consequences of climate warming and contemporary geomorphic evolution for thermal conditions in a large, shallow Alaskan lake. We evaluated the effects of both known climate and landscape change, including rapid outlet erosion and migration of the principal inlet stream, over the past 50 yr as well as future scenarios of geomorphic restoration. Compared to effects of air temperature during the past 50 yr, lake thermal properties showed little sensitivity to substantial (, 60%) loss of lake volume, as the lake maximum depth declined from 6 m to 4 m driven by outlet erosion. The direction and magnitude of future lake thermal responses will be driven largely by the extent of inlet stream migration when it occurs simultaneously with outlet erosion. Maintaining connectivity with inlet streams had substantial effects on buffering lake thermal responses to warming climate. Failing to account for changing rates and types of geomorphic processes under continuing climate change may misidentify the primary drivers of lake thermal responses and reduce our ability to understand the consequences for aquatic organisms. ?? 2011, by the American Society of Limnology and Oceanography, Inc.

  16. Potential global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global economic integration and growth contribute much to the construction of energy plants, vehicles and other industrial products that produces carbon emission and in effect cause the destruction of the environment. A coordinated policy and response worldwide to curb emissions and to effect global climate change must be introduced. Improvement in scientific understanding is required to monitor how much emission reduction is necessary. In the near term, especially in the next seven years, sustained research and development for low carbon or carbon-free energy is necessary. Other measures must also be introduced, such as limiting the use of vehicles, closing down inefficient power plants, etc. In the long term, the use of the electric car, use solar energy, etc. is required. Reforestation must also be considered to absorb large amounts of carbon in the atmosphere

  17. Investigating uncertainty of climate change effect on entering runoff to Urmia Lake Iran

    OpenAIRE

    P. Razmara; Massah Bavani, A. R.; Motiee, H.; Torabi, S; S Lotfi

    2013-01-01

    The largest lake in Iran, Urmia Lake, has been faced with a sharp decline in water surface in recent years. This decline is putting the survival of Urmia Lake at risk. Due to the fact that the water surface of lakes is affected directly by the entering runoff, herein we study the effect of climate change on the runoff entering Urmia Lake. Ten climate models among AOGCM-AR4 models in the future time period 2013–2040 will be used, under the emission scenarios A2 and B...

  18. Direct and indirect effects of climate change on the risk of infection by water-transmitted pathogens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sterk, A.; Schijven, J.F.; de Nijs, T.; de Roda Husman, A.M.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is likely to affect the infectious disease burden from exposure to pathogens in water used for drinking and recreation. Effective intervention measures require quantification of impacts of climate change on the distribution of pathogens in the environment and their potential effects o

  19. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Dulen, Deanna M; Ebersole, Joseph L; Jackson, Stephen T; Lundquist, Jessica D; Millar, Constance I; Maher, Sean P; Monahan, William B; Nydick, Koren R; Redmond, Kelly T; Sawyer, Sarah C; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  20. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  1. Simulating the effect of climate change on stream temperature in the Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The potential for increases in stream temperature across many spatial and temporal scales as a result of climate change can pose a difficult challenge for environmental managers, especially when addressing thermal requirements for sensitive aquatic species. This study evaluates simulated changes to the thermal regime of three northern Wisconsin streams in response to a projected changing climate using a modeling framework and considers implications of thermal stresses to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with a coupled groundwater and surface water flow model to assess forecasts in climate from six global circulation models and three emission scenarios. Model results suggest that annual average stream temperature will steadily increase approximately 1.1 to 3.2 °C (varying by stream) by the year 2100 with differences in magnitude between emission scenarios. Daily mean stream temperature during the months of July and August, a period when cold-water fish communities are most sensitive, showed excursions from optimal temperatures with increased frequency compared to current conditions. Projections of daily mean stream temperature, in some cases, were no longer in the range necessary to sustain a cold water fishery. - Highlights: • A stream temperature model was calibrated for three streams in northern Wisconsin. • The effect of climate change on stream temperature was simulated in each stream. • Annual average stream temperature was projected to rise from 1 to 3 °C by 2100. • Forecasts of stream temperature exceeded optimal ranges for brook trout

  2. Simulating the effect of climate change on stream temperature in the Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Selbig, William R., E-mail: wrselbig@usgs.gov

    2015-07-15

    The potential for increases in stream temperature across many spatial and temporal scales as a result of climate change can pose a difficult challenge for environmental managers, especially when addressing thermal requirements for sensitive aquatic species. This study evaluates simulated changes to the thermal regime of three northern Wisconsin streams in response to a projected changing climate using a modeling framework and considers implications of thermal stresses to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with a coupled groundwater and surface water flow model to assess forecasts in climate from six global circulation models and three emission scenarios. Model results suggest that annual average stream temperature will steadily increase approximately 1.1 to 3.2 °C (varying by stream) by the year 2100 with differences in magnitude between emission scenarios. Daily mean stream temperature during the months of July and August, a period when cold-water fish communities are most sensitive, showed excursions from optimal temperatures with increased frequency compared to current conditions. Projections of daily mean stream temperature, in some cases, were no longer in the range necessary to sustain a cold water fishery. - Highlights: • A stream temperature model was calibrated for three streams in northern Wisconsin. • The effect of climate change on stream temperature was simulated in each stream. • Annual average stream temperature was projected to rise from 1 to 3 °C by 2100. • Forecasts of stream temperature exceeded optimal ranges for brook trout.

  3. Estimating climate change, CO2 and technology development effects on wheat yield in northeast Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bannayan, M; Mansoori, H; Rezaei, E Eyshi

    2014-04-01

    Wheat is the main food for the majority of Iran's population. Precise estimation of wheat yield change in future is essential for any possible revision of management strategies. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate change, CO2 concentration, technology development and their integrated effects on wheat production under future climate change. This study was performed under two scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES): regional economic (A2) and global environmental (B1). Crop production was projected for three future time periods (2020, 2050 and 2080) in comparison with a baseline year (2005) for Khorasan province located in the northeast of Iran. Four study locations in the study area included Mashhad, Birjand, Bojnourd and Sabzevar. The effect of technology development was calculated by fitting a regression equation between the observed wheat yields against historical years considering yield potential increase and yield gap reduction as technology development. Yield relative increase per unit change of CO2 concentration (1 ppm(-1)) was considered 0.05 % and was used to implement the effect of elevated CO2. The HadCM3 general circulation model along with the CSM-CERES-Wheat crop model were used to project climate change effects on wheat crop yield. Our results illustrate that, among all the factors considered, technology development provided the highest impact on wheat yield change. Highest wheat yield increase across all locations and time periods was obtained under the A2 scenario. Among study locations, Mashhad showed the highest change in wheat yield. Yield change compared to baseline ranged from -28 % to 56 % when the integration of all factors was considered across all locations. It seems that achieving higher yield of wheat in future may be expected in northeast Iran assuming stable improvements in production technology. PMID:23397072

  4. Effect of climate change on vector-borne disease risk in the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medlock, Jolyon M; Leach, Steve A

    2015-06-01

    During the early part of the 21st century, an unprecedented change in the status of vector-borne disease in Europe has occurred. Invasive mosquitoes have become widely established across Europe, with subsequent transmission and outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya virus. Malaria has re-emerged in Greece, and West Nile virus has emerged throughout parts of eastern Europe. Tick-borne diseases, such as Lyme disease, continue to increase, or, in the case of tick-borne encephalitis and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever viruses, have changed their geographical distribution. From a veterinary perspective, the emergence of Bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses show that northern Europe is equally susceptible to transmission of vector-borne disease. These changes are in part due to increased globalisation, with intercontinental air travel and global shipping transport creating new opportunities for invasive vectors and pathogens. However, changes in vector distributions are being driven by climatic changes and changes in land use, infrastructure, and the environment. In this Review, we summarise the risks posed by vector-borne diseases in the present and the future from a UK perspective, and assess the likely effects of climate change and, where appropriate, climate-change adaptation strategies on vector-borne disease risk in the UK. Lessons from the outbreaks of West Nile virus in North America and chikungunya in the Caribbean emphasise the need to assess future vector-borne disease risks and prepare contingencies for future outbreaks. Ensuring that adaptation strategies for climate change do not inadvertently exacerbate risks should be a primary focus for decision makers. PMID:25808458

  5. Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: progress report, 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    United Nations Environment Programme Environmental Effects Assessment Panel

    2016-02-10

    The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) is one of three Panels that regularly informs the Parties (countries) to the Montreal Protocol on the effects of ozone depletion and the consequences of climate change interactions with respect to human health, animals, plants, biogeochemistry, air quality, and materials. The Panels provide a detailed assessment report every four years. The most recent 2014 Quadrennial Assessment by the EEAP was published as a special issue of seven papers in 2015 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2015, 14, 1-184). The next Quadrennial Assessment will be published in 2018/2019. In the interim, the EEAP generally produces an annual update or progress report of the relevant scientific findings. The present progress report for 2015 assesses some of the highlights and new insights with regard to the interactive nature of the effects of UV radiation, atmospheric processes, and climate change. PMID:26822392

  6. Potential effects of climatic change on radiological doses from disposal of Canadian nuclear fuel waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The environmental assessment of deep geologic disposal of Canadian nuclear fuel waste considers many processes that could affect radionuclide transport to humans over thousands of years. Climatic change is an important feature that will occur over these long times. Glaciation will likely occur within the next 100,000 years over much of Canada, and its impact on radiological doses has been assessed previously. In the present study, we investigate the potential effect of short- term climatic change, usually associated with global warming caused by increases in atmospheric trace gases. We study the main biosphere transport pathways causing a radiological dose to humans from 129I, which is the most important radionuclide in disposal of Canadian used nuclear fuel. Irrigation of a garden with contaminated well water is the main pathway and it can be affected by changes in temperature and precipitation. A cold, wet climate decreases the need for irrigation, and this decreases the radiological dose. A drastic climatic change, such as an increase in temperature from 10 to 20 degrees C and decrease in precipitation from 0.3 to 0.2 m during the growing season, is estimated to increase the dose by a factor of four. This is a relatively small change compared to the range of doses that arise from the variability and uncertainty in many of the parameters used in the environmental assessment models. Therefore, it is likely that the results of probabilistic dose assessment models can include the consequences of short-term climatic change. 39 refs., 3 figs

  7. Forestry Canada's perspectives on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The impacts of climatic change on Canada's forestry sector are discussed, in the context of major research priorities relating to forecasting climate, forecasting forest responses, monitoring changes, mitigating effects, and understanding the forest carbon balance. There are five major concerns that affect policy decisions: effects of climatic change on forests; adaptation to climate change; impacts of changing crops on forestry; changing forestry values in changing sociological settings; and international implications of the changing climate. A scientific program to respond to climate change issues is required, and should include the following concentrations of research effort. Planning requires projections of likely future climates, and efforts should concern relations between pre-historic climates and forest ecosystems and integrating data into predictive models. Forecasting of response of forests should include tree physiology, factors controlling reforestation, variations in forest trees, effects of pollutants, damage to forests, and forest decline

  8. Climate change effect on the phytosanitary problems: methodology of map producing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Ribeiro do Valle Gonçalves

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The climate change caused by anthropic action can alter the current scenario of phytosanitary problems in Brazilian agriculture. The aim of this study was to evaluate the methodology of producing maps of spatial distribution of phytosanitary problems of plants associated with climate change effects in Brazil. A case study was applied to coffee leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella, considered the most important pest of this culture, comparing its distribution in current and in future climate conditions. As current climate, the average of 1960 to 1990 period was considered. For the future climate conditions, the first method used increments in the temperature fixed to the country and, the second one, adopted increases, varying spatially, both aiming 2080 decade (simulating the period between 2017 to 2100, to A2 scenario. A Geographical Information System (GIS was used to produce the maps. The pest model, proposed by Parra (1985, estimates the probable number of coffee leaf miner cycles. In both methods of producing maps, increases of probable number of coffee leaf miner cycles were observed in the future. Although, using fixed increases in the average temperature caused a substimation of the number of cycles in the future, comparing to adopting increases of temperatures varying spatially. Besides the sazonal differences, regional differents were observed to the number of cycles of the leaf miner coffee.

  9. Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate

  10. Climate Change and Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chinowsky, P.; Arndt, Channing

    2012-01-01

    Decision-makers who are responsible for determining when and where infrastructure should be developed and/or enhanced are facing a new challenge with the emerging topic of climate change. The paper introduces a stressor–response methodology where engineering-based models are used as a basis...... to estimate the impact of individual climate stressors on road infrastructure in Mozambique. Through these models, stressor–response functions are introduced that quantify the cost impact of a specific stressor based on the intensity of the stressor and the type of infrastructure it is affecting. Utilizing...... four climate projection scenarios, the paper details how climate change response decisions may cost the Mozambican government in terms of maintenance costs and long-term roadstock inventory reduction. Through this approach the paper details how a 14% reduction in inventory loss can be achieved through...

  11. Greenland climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Swingedouw, D.; Landais, A.;

    2012-01-01

    Climate archives available from deep-sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that during the last decade (2000s......), atmospheric and sea-surface temperatures are reaching levels last encountered millennia ago when northern high latitude summer insolation was higher due to a different orbital configuration. Concurrently, records from lake sediments in southern Greenland document major environmental and climatic conditions...... regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. The magnitude and rate of future changes in Greenland temperature, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, may be faster than any past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Projections indicate that within one century Greenland may...

  12. A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface- and groundwater resources under a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leng, G.; Huang, M.; Tang, Q.; Leung, L. R.

    2014-12-01

    In this study, we investigate the effects of irrigation on global surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) resources by performing simulations of the Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) at 0.5-degree resolution driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical climate simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from 1950-2099. For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were configured: (1) a control experiment (CTRL) in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an irrigation experiment (IRRIG) in which the irrigation module is activated; and (3) a groundwater pumping experiment (PUMP) in which a groundwater pumping scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping were calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based SW and GW use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major opposing effects on SW/GW: SW depletion/GW accumulation in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW, and SW accumulation/GW depletion in regions with irrigation fed primarily by GW. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions of SW, suggesting that intensive irrigation water use has the potential to further exacerbate low-flow conditions, increasing vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century (2070-2099), climate change significantly increases (relative to 1971-2000) irrigation water demand in the regions equipped for irrigation across the world. The increase in demand combined with the increased temporal-spatial variability of water supply will cause more severe issues of local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although the effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for

  13. Analysis of climate change effects on extreme precipitation for the area of Sicily (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forestieri, Angelo; Fowler, Hayley; Lo Conti, Francesco; Noto, Leonardo

    2016-04-01

    In this study possible effects of the climate change on the extreme precipitation events have been analyzed by means of the CORDEX (Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment) data, a WCRP-sponsored program for the study of climate change effects at regional scales. In particular, some models runs from the EURO-CORDEX and the MED-CORDEX, i.e., two branch of the main project, have been exploited for the analysis of possible effects on extreme rainfall for the area of Sicily (Italy). In order to improve the reliability of reference data retrieved from the CORDEX datasets, a bias correction procedure based on hystorical measurements has been designed. Moreover, a simple cascade temporal downscaling procedure, has been applied for the derivation of sub-daily data. Results highlight that mean annual precipitation for the period 2006-2050 shows a reduction of the average total precipitation for both scenarios, rcp8.5 more than rcp4.5. The precipitation for the shorter durations has shown an increase respect to higher durations. This behaviour is confirmed by many works of the scientific community, which underline this trend. Therefore, results report the indications that in this area the up to date climate predictions are congruent with future scenarios characterized by a decrease of the total amount of precipitation with an increase of the extreme rainfall events.

  14. Making the climate part of the human world: Why addressing beliefs and biases is necessary part of effective climate change education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, S. D.

    2009-12-01

    Efforts to raise public awareness and understanding of the social, cultural and economic consequences of climate change often encounter skepticism. The primary causes of this skepticism, whether in the form of a mild rejection of proposed policy responses or an outright rejection of the basic scientific findings, is often cited to be the poor framing of issues by the scientific community, the quality of science education or public science literacy, disinformation campaigns by representatives of the coal and gas industry, individual resistance to behavioral change, and the hyperactive nature of the modern information culture. However, the root cause may be that the weather and climate, and by association climate change, is viewed as independent of the sphere of human influence in ancient and modern societies. In this presentation, I will outline how long-standing human beliefs in the separation between the earth and the sky and the modern framing of climate change as an “environmental” issue are limiting efforts to education the public about the causes, effects and possible response to climate change. First, sociological research in the Pacific Islands (Fiji, Kiribati, Tuvalu) finds strong evidence that beliefs in divine control of the weather and climate limit public acceptance of human-induced climate change. Second, media analysis and polling data from North America supports the role of belief and provides further evidence that climate change is viewed as a threat to an “other” labeled “the environment”, rather than a threat to people or society. The consequences of these mental models of the climate can be an outright reject of scientific theory related to climate change, a milder distrust of climate change predictions, a lack of urgency about mitigation, and an underestimate of the effort required to adapt to climate change. In order to be effective, public education about climate change needs to directly address the two, critical beliefs held by

  15. The climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to take stock on the climatic change situation and initiatives at the beginning of 2006, the INES (National Institute on the Solar Energy) proposes this special document. It presents the Montreal conference of December 2005, realized to reinforced the actions of the international community against the greenhouse gases. The technical decisions decided at this conference are detailed. The document discusses also the causes and consequences of the climatic warming, the intervention sectors and the actions possibilities. (A.L.B.)

  16. Libertarianism and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Torpman, Olle

    2016-01-01

    In this dissertation, I investigate the implications of libertarian morality in relation to the problem of climate change. This problem is explicated in the first chapter, where preliminary clarifications are also made. In the second chapter, I briefly explain the characteristics of libertarianism relevant to the subsequent study, including the central non-aggression principle. In chapter three, I examine whether our individual emissions of greenhouse gases, which together give rise to climat...

  17. The science of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Today, it can no longer be doubted that the greenhouse effect is being intensified ('enhanced') by human activity. The remaining uncertainties concern the magnitude, timing and regional distribution of the consequent climate change. The costs of control will almost certainly be elevated if action is delayed and the precautionary principle is not adopted. And today the size and extent of the global population precludes migration as an acceptable way of avoiding the impacts of climate change. Yet, so far only the Netherlands has published its greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventory and reduction strategy in accordance with the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) (''Climate change convention'', Safe Energy 92). A Bill containing legislation to ratify FCCC is currently being prepared by the Swedish government. Britain and other European Community and Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations plan to ratify the FCCC by 1994. (author)

  18. The Effect of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Allergenic Potential of Pollens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doina Adina TODEA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is associated with atmospheric warming due to continuous increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration following the industrial revolution. The urban areas are more responsible for these changes. Europe for example has experienced a progressive warming +0.9°C for 1901-2005. Climate change is unequivocal and represents a possible threat for patients affected by allergic conditions because it is related with an increased distribution and concentration of pollen. Higher temperature, wet condition (especially thunderstorms, wind speed, transition of cold fronts, environmental changes (allergenic pollens arrived in new areas, are mechanisms which involve changes of production, dispersion and allergen content of pollen. Prolonged and more severe pollen seasons are leading to worsened asthma and allergies. The interaction of pollen with urban air pollutants could also lead to an increased effect of aero allergens on allergic patients, with a greater likelihood of the development of an allergic respiratory disease in sensitized subjects and exacerbation of symptomatic patients. Air pollution could induce damage to airways mucosa, thus promoting sensitization of the airways; also it could increase the expression of allergenic proteins (allergen contents of pollen produce by plants is increased by higher temperature and CO2 enriched atmosphere. By increasing pollen concentration or making the airways susceptible to allergens, the climate change and air pollution have a negative impact on human health.

  19. Indications of climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The earth's annual mean global temperature increased by around 0,6 C during the 20 century, with wide regional differences. Even if solar activity has played some part in the mean temperature rise and some greenhouse gases are present naturally in the atmosphere, enhancing of the greenhouse effect due to the human activities is responsible for a large and increasing part of the observed warming. The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change confirms the future increase under all scenarios. Depending on the efforts made by mankind to limit greenhouse gases emissions, the global mean temperature in 2100 could be between 1,4 and 5,8 C higher than in 2000. (A.L.B.)

  20. Climate change scenarios and the effect of sea-level rise for Estonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kont, Are; Jaagus, Jaak; Aunap, Raivo

    2003-03-01

    Climate warming due to the enhanced greenhouse effect is expected to have a significant impact on natural environment and human activity in high latitudes. Mostly, it should have a positive effect on human activity. The main threats in Estonia that could be connected with sea-level rise are the flooding of coastal areas, erosion of sandy beaches and the destruction of harbour constructions. Possible climate change and its negative impacts in the coastal regions of Estonia are estimated in this paper. Climate change scenarios for Estonia were generated using a Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) and a regional climate change database—SCENanario GENerator (SCENGEN). Three alternative emission scenarios were combined with data from 14 general circulation model experiments. Climate change scenarios for the year 2100 indicate a significant increase in air temperature (by 2.3-4.5 °C) and precipitation (by 5-30%) in Estonia. The highest increase is expected to take place during winter and the lowest increase in summer. Due to a long coastline (3794 km) and extensive low-lying coastal areas, global climate change through sea-level rise will strongly affect the territory of Estonia. A number of valuable natural ecosystems will be in danger. These include both marine and terrestrial systems containing rare plant communities and suitable breeding places for birds. Most sandy beaches high in recreational value will disappear. However, isostatic land uplift and the location of coastal settlements at a distance from the present coastline reduce the rate of risk. Seven case study areas characterising all the shore types of Estonia have been selected for sea-level rise vulnerability and adaptation assessment. Results and estimates of vulnerability to 1.0-m sea-level rise by 2100 are presented in this paper. This is the maximum scenario according to which the actually estimated relative sea-level rise would vary from 0.9 m (SW Estonia) to 0

  1. The impact of climate change on the U.S. power sector: Price and quantity effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veliz, Karina

    In U.S. homes, 22 percent and 6 percent of the consumption of electricity is devoted to satisfy cooling and heating demands, respectively. A warming climate alters these consumption patterns by increasing the demand for cooling and reducing the demand for heating. This dissertation uses econometric techniques to examine the effect of climate change on the U.S. power industry through the study of the responsiveness of electricity demand to changes in temperature, and the impact of a climate-induced demand on electricity price and expenditures. In the second chapter a fixed-effects model and a cointegration model at the state level are used to investigate the determinants of residential, commercial and industrial electricity consumption for the 48 contiguous states. The results indicate substantial geographical heterogeneity in the response of demand to cooling and heating degree days, with the Midwest showing the greatest sensitivity. Residential consumers are impacted the most; on average, they experience a 13--18 percent increase in expenditures. In the third chapter the standard method of modeling electricity consumption is extended by the analysis of a wide range of set points above and below 65°F, and by including wet bulb temperatures. The statistical results for Massachusetts validate the use of 65F for the residential sector, but demonstrate that a set point of 55°F and wet bulb temperature best characterizes the commercial sector. Using the models generated with these set points, climate change is projected to raise residential and commercial demand by 2.6 percent and 4 percent, respectively. In the fourth chapter, previous analyses on climate-induced expenditures are improved by accounting for the dual impact that climate change has on the electric power sector: an increase in both demand and price. A projected 2.6°C rise in temperature by 2070 in Massachusetts increases electricity prices by 11 to 18 percent. This increase in price, together with the

  2. Interactive effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on biogeochemical cycling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zepp, R G; Erickson, D J; Paul, N D; Sulzberger, B

    2007-03-01

    This report assesses research on the interactions of UV radiation (280-400 nm) and global climate change with global biogeochemical cycles at the Earth's surface. The effects of UV-B (280-315 nm), which are dependent on the stratospheric ozone layer, on biogeochemical cycles are often linked to concurrent exposure to UV-A radiation (315-400 nm), which is influenced by global climate change. These interactions involving UV radiation (the combination of UV-B and UV-A) are central to the prediction and evaluation of future Earth environmental conditions. There is increasing evidence that elevated UV-B radiation has significant effects on the terrestrial biosphere with implications for the cycling of carbon, nitrogen and other elements. The cycling of carbon and inorganic nutrients such as nitrogen can be affected by UV-B-mediated changes in communities of soil organisms, probably due to the effects of UV-B radiation on plant root exudation and/or the chemistry of dead plant material falling to the soil. In arid environments direct photodegradation can play a major role in the decay of plant litter, and UV-B radiation is responsible for a significant part of this photodegradation. UV-B radiation strongly influences aquatic carbon, nitrogen, sulfur and metals cycling that affect a wide range of life processes. UV-B radiation changes the biological availability of dissolved organic matter to microorganisms, and accelerates its transformation into dissolved inorganic carbon and nitrogen, including carbon dioxide and ammonium. The coloured part of dissolved organic matter (CDOM) controls the penetration of UV radiation into water bodies, but CDOM is also photodegraded by solar UV radiation. Changes in CDOM influence the penetration of UV radiation into water bodies with major consequences for aquatic biogeochemical processes. Changes in aquatic primary productivity and decomposition due to climate-related changes in circulation and nutrient supply occur concurrently with

  3. Climate change policy position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) is a firm believer in the need to take action to mitigate the risks associated with climate change, and that clear government policy is called for. The principles of sustainable development must guide this policy development effort. The initiatives required to address greenhouse gas emissions over both the short and long term must be carefully considered, and it is up to industries to ensure their production efficiency and emission intensity. Promoting improved performance of industries in Canada and developing technology that can be deployed internationally for larger global effects represents Canada's best contribution to progress on greenhouse gas emissions. The increase in energy demand along with increases in population and economic growth have contributed to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions despite improved energy efficiency in industry. Significant damage to the economy will result if Canada is to meet its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol, forcing the country to buy large quantities of foreign credits instead of using those funds for increased research and development. CAPP indicated that an effective plan must be: balanced, equitable, responsible, competitive, focused on technology and innovation, and based on agreements on sectoral plans. Each of these principles were discussed, followed by the fundamentals of approach for upstream oil and gas. The framework for climate change policy was described as well as the elements of a sector plan. CAPP wants to work with all levels of government on an appropriate plan for Canada, that considers our unique circumstances. Canada can play a significant role on the international stage by properly implementing the policy position proposed by the CAPP without unnecessary risks to the economy. refs

  4. Solar ultraviolet radiation and ozone depletion-driven climate change: effects on terrestrial ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bornman, J F; Barnes, P W; Robinson, S A; Ballaré, C L; Flint, S D; Caldwell, M M

    2015-01-01

    In this assessment we summarise advances in our knowledge of how UV-B radiation (280-315 nm), together with other climate change factors, influence terrestrial organisms and ecosystems. We identify key uncertainties and knowledge gaps that limit our ability to fully evaluate the interactive effects of ozone depletion and climate change on these systems. We also evaluate the biological consequences of the way in which stratospheric ozone depletion has contributed to climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. Since the last assessment, several new findings or insights have emerged or been strengthened. These include: (1) the increasing recognition that UV-B radiation has specific regulatory roles in plant growth and development that in turn can have beneficial consequences for plant productivity via effects on plant hardiness, enhanced plant resistance to herbivores and pathogens, and improved quality of agricultural products with subsequent implications for food security; (2) UV-B radiation together with UV-A (315-400 nm) and visible (400-700 nm) radiation are significant drivers of decomposition of plant litter in globally important arid and semi-arid ecosystems, such as grasslands and deserts. This occurs through the process of photodegradation, which has implications for nutrient cycling and carbon storage, although considerable uncertainty exists in quantifying its regional and global biogeochemical significance; (3) UV radiation can contribute to climate change via its stimulation of volatile organic compounds from plants, plant litter and soils, although the magnitude, rates and spatial patterns of these emissions remain highly uncertain at present. UV-induced release of carbon from plant litter and soils may also contribute to global warming; and (4) depletion of ozone in the Southern Hemisphere modifies climate directly via effects on seasonal weather patterns (precipitation and wind) and these in turn have been linked to changes in the growth of plants

  5. Interactive effects of anthropogenic nitrogen enrichment and climate change on terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change and Nr from anthropogenic activities are causing some of the most rapid changes in biodiversity in recent times. Climate change is causing warming trends that result in poleward and elevational range shiftsof flora and fauna, and changes in phenology, particularly ...

  6. Effects of Climate Change on Habitat Availability and Configuration for an Endemic Coastal Alpine Bird

    OpenAIRE

    Jackson, Michelle M.; Gergel, Sarah E.; Kathy Martin

    2015-01-01

    North America's coastal mountains are particularly vulnerable to climate change, yet harbour a number of endemic species. With little room "at the top" to track shifting climate envelopes, alpine species may be especially negatively affected by climate-induced habitat fragmentation. We ask how climate change will affect the total amount, mean patch size, and number of patches of suitable habitat for Vancouver Island White-tailed Ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura saxatilis; VIWTP), a threatened, ende...

  7. Weather effects on avian breeding performance and implications of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skagen, Susan K; Adams, Amy A Yackel

    2012-06-01

    The influence of recent climate change on the world's biota has manifested broadly, resulting in latitudinal range shifts, advancing dates of arrival of migrants and onset of breeding, and altered community relationships. Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it will likely exacerbate a broad range of identified threats to animal populations. In the past few decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American avifauna, largely due to habitat threats such as the intensification of agriculture. We examine the effects of local climatic variations on the breeding performance of a bird endemic to the shortgrass prairie, the Lark Bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys) and discuss the implications of our findings relative to future climate predictions. Clutch size, nest survival, and productivity all positively covaried with seasonal precipitation; yet relatively intense daily precipitation events temporarily depressed daily survival of nests. Nest survival was positively related to average temperatures during the breeding season. Declining summer precipitation may reduce the likelihood that Lark Buntings can maintain stable breeding populations in eastern Colorado although average temperature increases of up to 3 degrees C (within the range of this study) may ameliorate declines in survival expected with drier conditions. Historic climate variability in the Great Plains selects for a degree of vagility and opportunism rather than strong site fidelity and specific adaptation to local environments. These traits may lead to northerly shifts in distribution if climatic and habitat conditions become less favorable in the drying southern regions of the Great Plains. Distributional shifts in Lark Buntings could be constrained by future changes in land use, agricultural practices, or vegetative communities that result in further loss of shortgrass prairie habitats. PMID:22827123

  8. Evaluating the effect of climate change on groundwater resources: from local to catchment scale

    OpenAIRE

    Möck, Christian; Hunkeler, Daniel; Brunner, Philip

    2014-01-01

    There is strong evidence that climate is changing and will affect the water resources. A major question arising from the evaluation of climate change (CC) impacts on groundwater resources is to what extent groundwater recharge will change. Given that for Switzerland, climate models predict more frequent hot and dry summers in the future while precipitation will tend to increase in winter, a special attention was given to possible changes in the seasonal distribution of recharge. However, to p...

  9. Environmental effects on germination phenology of co-occurring eucalypts: implications for regeneration under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rawal, Deepa S; Kasel, Sabine; Keatley, Marie R; Nitschke, Craig R

    2015-09-01

    Germination is considered one of the important phenological stages that are influenced by environmental factors, with timing and abundance determining plant establishment and recruitment. This study investigates the influence of temperature, soil moisture and light on the germination phenology of six Eucalyptus species from two co-occurring groups of three species representing warm-dry and cool-moist sclerophyll forests. Data from germination experiments were used to calibrate the germination module of the mechanistic model TACA-GEM, to evaluate germination phenology under a range of climate change scenarios. With the exception of E. polyanthemos, the optimal niche for all species was characterised by cool-moist stratification, low light, cool temperatures and high soil moisture. Model results indicated that of the warm-dry species, Eucalyptus microcarpa exhibited greater germination and establishment under projected changes of warmer drier conditions than its co-occurring species Eucalyptus polyanthemos and Eucalyptus tricarpa which suggests that E. microcarpa could maintain its current distribution under a warmer and drier climate in southeastern Australia. Among the cool-moist species, Eucalyptus radiata was the only species that established under projected climate change of the 2080s but at such a low probability that its persistence compared to Eucalyptus obliqua and Eucalyptus sieberi cannot be posited. For all cool-moist species, germination did not benefit from the phenological shifts they displayed. This study successfully demonstrated environmental effects on germination phenology and how a shift in climate can influence the timing and success of recruitment. PMID:25409871

  10. Environmental effects on germination phenology of co-occurring eucalypts: implications for regeneration under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rawal, Deepa S.; Kasel, Sabine; Keatley, Marie R.; Nitschke, Craig R.

    2015-09-01

    Germination is considered one of the important phenological stages that are influenced by environmental factors, with timing and abundance determining plant establishment and recruitment. This study investigates the influence of temperature, soil moisture and light on the germination phenology of six Eucalyptus species from two co-occurring groups of three species representing warm-dry and cool-moist sclerophyll forests. Data from germination experiments were used to calibrate the germination module of the mechanistic model TACA-GEM, to evaluate germination phenology under a range of climate change scenarios. With the exception of E. polyanthemos, the optimal niche for all species was characterised by cool-moist stratification, low light, cool temperatures and high soil moisture. Model results indicated that of the warm-dry species, Eucalyptus microcarpa exhibited greater germination and establishment under projected changes of warmer drier conditions than its co-occurring species Eucalyptus polyanthemos and Eucalyptus tricarpa which suggests that E. microcarpa could maintain its current distribution under a warmer and drier climate in southeastern Australia. Among the cool-moist species, Eucalyptus radiata was the only species that established under projected climate change of the 2080s but at such a low probability that its persistence compared to Eucalyptus obliqua and Eucalyptus sieberi cannot be posited. For all cool-moist species, germination did not benefit from the phenological shifts they displayed. This study successfully demonstrated environmental effects on germination phenology and how a shift in climate can influence the timing and success of recruitment.

  11. Interaction effects of climate and land use/land cover change on soil organic carbon sequestration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Xiong; Grunwald, Sabine; Myers, D Brenton; Ross, C Wade; Harris, Willie G; Comerford, Nicolas B

    2014-09-15

    Historically, Florida soils stored the largest amount of soil organic carbon (SOC) among the conterminous U.S. states (2.26 Pg). This region experienced rapid land use/land cover (LULC) shifts and climate change in the past decades. The effects of these changes on SOC sequestration are unknown. The objectives of this study were to 1) investigate the change in SOC stocks in Florida to determine if soils have acted as a net sink or net source for carbon (C) over the past four decades and 2) identify the concomitant effects of LULC, LULC change, and climate on the SOC change. A total of 1080 sites were sampled in the topsoil (0-20 cm) between 2008 and 2009 representing the current SOC stocks, 194 of which were selected to collocate with historical sites (n = 1251) from the Florida Soil Characterization Database (1965-1996) for direct comparison. Results show that SOC stocks significantly differed among LULC classes--sugarcane and wetland contained the highest SOC, followed by improved pasture, urban, mesic upland forest, rangeland, and pineland while crop, citrus and xeric upland forest remained the lowest. The surface 20 cm soils acted as a net sink for C with the median SOC significantly increasing from 2.69 to 3.40 kg m(-2) over the past decades. The SOC sequestration rate was LULC dependent and controlled by climate factors interacting with LULC. Higher temperature tended to accelerate SOC accumulation, while higher precipitation reduced the SOC sequestration rate. Land use/land cover change observed over the past four decades also favored the C sequestration in soils due to the increase in the C-rich wetland area by ~140% and decrease in the C-poor agricultural area by ~20%. Soils are likely to provide a substantial soil C sink considering the climate and LULC projections for this region. PMID:25010945

  12. Ireland and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As the rise of sea level, the higher frequency of tempests, and the threat of water shortages in some parts of the country are the major stakes for Ireland in the struggle against climate change, this report gives an overview of greenhouse gas emissions in this country (globally and per sector) and of their evolution. It presents the Irish policy to struggle against climate change since 2000, its public actors (ministries, agencies), its different action plans (National Climate Change Strategy, energy sector planning, promotion of renewable energies, transport sector planning), and sector-based and tax measures implemented in Ireland. It discusses the limitations of the current policy (insufficient results, limited domestic measures, socioeconomic obstacles, complex political steering), describes the new European context and the present Irish context (economic crisis). Some new orientations are discussed

  13. AMS and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kutschera, Walter, E-mail: walter.kutschera@univie.ac.a [Vienna Environmental Research Accelerator (VERA), Fakultaet fuer Physik - Isotopenforschung, Universitaet Wien, Waehringerstrasse 17, A-1090 Wien (Austria)

    2010-04-15

    This paper attempts to draw a connection between information that can be gained from measurements with accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) and the study of climate change on earth. The power of AMS to help in this endeavor is demonstrated by many contributions to these proceedings. Just like in archaeology, we are entering a phase of an 'integrated approach' to understand the various components of climate change. Even though some basic understanding emerged, we are still largely in a situation of a phenomenological description of climate change. Collecting more data is therefore of paramount interest. Based on a recent suggestion of 'geo-engineering' to take out CO{sub 2} from the atmosphere, this radical step will also be briefly discussed.

  14. AMS and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutschera, Walter

    2010-04-01

    This paper attempts to draw a connection between information that can be gained from measurements with accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) and the study of climate change on earth. The power of AMS to help in this endeavor is demonstrated by many contributions to these proceedings. Just like in archaeology, we are entering a phase of an 'integrated approach' to understand the various components of climate change. Even though some basic understanding emerged, we are still largely in a situation of a phenomenological description of climate change. Collecting more data is therefore of paramount interest. Based on a recent suggestion of 'geo-engineering' to take out CO 2 from the atmosphere, this radical step will also be briefly discussed.

  15. Climate change matters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macpherson, Cheryl Cox

    2014-04-01

    One manifestation of climate change is the increasingly severe extreme weather that causes injury, illness and death through heat stress, air pollution, infectious disease and other means. Leading health organisations around the world are responding to the related water and food shortages and volatility of energy and agriculture prices that threaten health and health economics. Environmental and climate ethics highlight the associated challenges to human rights and distributive justice but rarely address health or encompass bioethical methods or analyses. Public health ethics and its broader umbrella, bioethics, remain relatively silent on climate change. Meanwhile global population growth creates more people who aspire to Western lifestyles and unrestrained socioeconomic growth. Fulfilling these aspirations generates more emissions; worsens climate change; and undermines virtues and values that engender appreciation of, and protections for, natural resources. Greater understanding of how virtues and values are evolving in different contexts, and the associated consequences, might nudge the individual and collective priorities that inform public policy toward embracing stewardship and responsibility for environmental resources necessary to health. Instead of neglecting climate change and related policy, public health ethics and bioethics should explore these issues; bring transparency to the tradeoffs that permit emissions to continue at current rates; and offer deeper understanding about what is at stake and what it means to live a good life in today's world. PMID:23665996

  16. The effectiveness of net negative carbon dioxide emissions in reversing anthropogenic climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere (also referred to as negative emissions) has been proposed as a means to restore the climate system to a desirable state, should the impacts of climate change become ‘dangerous’. Here we explore whether negative emissions are indeed effective in reversing climate change on human timescales, given the potentially counteracting effect of natural carbon sinks and the inertia of the climate system. We designed a range of CO2 emission scenarios, which follow a gradual transition to a zero-carbon energy system and entail implementation of various amounts of net-negative emissions at technologically plausible rates. These scenarios are used to force an Earth System Model of intermediate complexity. Results suggest that while it is possible to revert to a desired level of warming (e.g. 2 °C above pre-industrial) after different levels of overshoot, thermosteric sea level rise is not reversible for at least several centuries, even under assumption of large amounts of negative CO2 emissions. During the net-negative emission phase, artificial CO2 removal is opposed by CO2 outgassing from natural carbon sinks, with the efficiency of CO2 removal—here defined as the drop in atmospheric CO2 per unit negative emission—decreasing with the total amount of negative emissions. (letter)

  17. Game theory and corporate governance: conditions for effective stewardship of companies exposed to climate change risks

    OpenAIRE

    Kruitwagen, L; Madani, K.; Caldecott, B; Workman, MHW

    2016-01-01

    Engagement between investors and corporate boards has been suggested as a pathway to mitigate stranded asset and climate change risks. Debate is ongoing as to whether divestment or active ownership strategies are more appropriate to deliver longterm value and environmental sustainability. The paper tests the effectiveness of owner engagement strategies by studying the conditions for cooperation between investors and their companies. Characteristics of investors and compan...

  18. EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DAIRY PRODUCTION IN BOTSWANA AND ITS SUITABLE MITIGATION STRATEGIES

    OpenAIRE

    J.C. MOREKI; C.M. TSOPITO

    2013-01-01

    This paper explores the effects of climate change on dairy production in Botswana and mitigation strategies are suggested. Dairy farming has not experienced growth over time rendering the country heavily dependent on milk imports. National dairy herd is estimated to be approximately 5000 and per capita consumption of milk about 32.5 litres per person per year. Currently, Botswana is experiencing average high temperatures and low rainfall, frequent droughts and scarcity of both ground and surf...

  19. The Effect of Hurricanes on Annual Precipitation in Maryland and the Connection to Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jackie; Liu, Zhong

    2015-01-01

    Precipitation is a vital aspect of our lives droughts, floods and other related disasters that involve precipitation can cause costly damage in the economic system and general society. Purpose of this project is to determine what, if any effect do hurricanes have on annual precipitation in Maryland Research will be conducted on Marylands terrain, climatology, annual precipitation, and precipitation contributed from hurricanes Possible connections to climate change

  20. Cost-effectiveness of climate change policies for the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Rudd, Anne Elizabeth Sally

    2012-01-01

    This research project applies a hybrid energy-economy model to compare the cost-effectiveness of different climate change mitigation policies for the United States. Five policies are compared: (1) a technology regulation phasing out coal and natural gas generation, (2) Clean Electricity Standard, (3) Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standard, (4) Vehicles Emissions Standard, (5) economy-wide GHG tax. The cost of these policies is estimated using three different methodologies. The first methodol...

  1. Potential effects of climate change on a marine invasion: The importance of current context

    OpenAIRE

    Isabelle M. CÔTÉ, Stephanie J. GREEN

    2012-01-01

    Species invasions threaten marine biodiversity globally. There is a concern that climate change is exacerbating this problem. Here, we examined some of the potential effects of warming water temperatures on the invasion of Western Atlantic habitats by a marine predator, the Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans and P. miles). We focussed on two temperature-dependent aspects of lionfish life-history and behaviour: pelagic larval duration, because of its link to dispersal potential, and prey ...

  2. Hydrologic effects of urbanization and climate change on the Flint River Basin, Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viger, Roland; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven; Jones, John W.; Buell, Gary R.

    2011-01-01

    The potential effects of long-term urbanization and climate change on the freshwater resources of the Flint River basin were examined by using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). PRMS is a deterministic, distributed-parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land cover on streamflow and multiple intermediate hydrologic states. Precipitation and temperature output from five general circulation models (GCMs) using one current and three future climate-change scenarios were statistically downscaled for input into PRMS. Projections of urbanization through 2050 derived for the Flint River basin by the Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land-Cover (FORE-SCE) land-cover change model were also used as input to PRMS. Comparison of the central tendency of streamflow simulated based on the three climate-change scenarios showed a slight decrease in overall streamflow relative to simulations under current conditions, mostly caused by decreases in the surface- runoff and groundwater components. The addition of information about forecasted urbanization of land surfaces to the hydrologic simulation mitigated the decreases in streamflow, mainly by increasing surface runoff.

  3. Climate change and drought effects on rural income distribution in the Mediterranean: a case study for Spain

    OpenAIRE

    S Quiroga; Suárez, C

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the effects of climate change and drought on agricultural outputs in Spanish rural areas. By now the effects of drought as a response to climate change or policy restrictions have been analyzed through response functions considering direct effects on crop productivity and incomes. These changes also affect incomes distribution in the region and therefore modify the social structure. Here we consider this complementary i...

  4. Distributional effects of climate change taxation: the case of the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Kuishuang; Hubacek, Klaus; Guan, Dabo; Contestabile, Monica; Minx, Jan; Barrett, John

    2010-05-15

    Current economic instruments aimed at climate change mitigation focus mainly on CO(2) emissions, but efficient climate mitigation needs to focus on other greenhouse gases as well as CO(2). This study investigates the distributional effects of climate change taxes on households belonging to different income and lifestyle groups; and it compares the effects of a CO(2) tax with a multiple GHG tax in the UK in terms of cost efficiency and distributional effects. Results show that a multi GHG tax is more efficient than a CO(2) tax due to lower marginal abatement costs, and that both taxes are regressive, with lower income households paying a relatively larger share of their income for the taxes than higher income households. A shift from a CO(2) tax to a GHG tax will reduce and shift the tax burden between consumption categories such as from energy-intensive products to food products. Consumers have different abilities to respond to the tax and change their behavior due to their own socio-economic attributes as well as the physical environment such as the age of the housing stock, location, and the availability of infrastructure. The housing-related carbon emissions are the largest component of the CO(2) tax payments for low income groups and arguments could be made for compensation of income losses and reduction of fuel poverty through further government intervention. PMID:20429551

  5. Addressing Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Peter S. Heller

    2007-01-01

    Global climate change has moved high on the agenda of key policy makers in many industrial countries. As a “global public good,†a coordinated global response in terms of efforts at mitigation will be critically necessary. Equally, many countries will face serious economic harm in the absence of adaptation efforts. As one of the key global institutions with responsibility for global economic stability and growth, this paper argues that climate change should be on the economic surveillance ...

  6. Microbial responses to multi-factor climate change: Effects on soil enzymes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Megan Steinweg

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The activities of extracellular enzymes, the proximate agents of decomposition in soils, are known to depend strongly on temperature, but less is known about how they respond to changes in precipitation patterns, and the interaction of these two components of climate change. Both enzyme production and turnover can be affected by changes in temperature and soil moisture, thus it is difficult to predict how enzyme pool size may respond to altered climate. Soils from the Boston-Area Climate Experiment, which is located in an old field (on abandoned farmland, were used to examine how climate variables affect enzyme activities and microbial biomass carbon (MBC in different seasons and in soils exposed to a combination of three levels of precipitation treatments (ambient, 150% of ambient during growing season, and 50% of ambient year-round and four levels of warming treatments (unwarmed to ~4˚C above ambient over the course of a year. Warming, precipitation and season had very little effect on potential enzyme activity. Most models assume that enzyme dynamics follow microbial biomass, because enzyme production should be directly controlled by the size and activity of microbial biomass. We observed differences among seasons and treatments in mass-specific potential enzyme activity, suggesting that this assumption is invalid. In June 2009, mass-specific potential enzyme activity, using chloroform fumigation-extraction MBC, increased with temperature, peaking under medium warming and then declining under the highest warming. This finding suggests that either enzyme production increased with temperature or turnover rates decreased. Increased maintenance costs associated with warming may have resulted in increased mass-specific enzyme activities due to increased nutrient demand. Our research suggests that allocation of resources to enzyme production could be affected by climate-induced changes in microbial efficiency and maintenance costs.

  7. Climate change triggers effects of fungal pathogens and insect herbivores on litter decomposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butenschoen, Olaf; Scheu, Stefan

    2014-10-01

    Increasing infestation by insect herbivores and pathogenic fungi in response to climate change will inevitably impact the amount and quality of leaf litter inputs into the soil. However, little is known on the interactive effect of infestation severity and climate change on litter decomposition, and no such study has been published for deciduous forests in Central Europe. We assessed changes in initial chemical quality of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and maple litter (Acer platanoides L.) in response to infestation by the gall midge Mikiola fagi Hart. and the pathogenic fungus Sawadaea tulasnei Fuckel, respectively, and investigated interactive effects of infestation severity, changes in temperature and soil moisture on carbon mineralization in a short-term laboratory study. We found that infestation by the gall midge M. fagi and the pathogenic fungus S. tulasnei significantly changed the chemical quality of beech and maple litter. Changes in element concentrations were generally positive and more pronounced, and if negative less pronounced for maple than beech litter most likely due to high quality fungal tissue remaining on litter after abscission. More importantly, alterations in litter chemical quality did not translate to distinct patterns of carbon mineralization at ambient conditions, but even low amounts of infested litter accelerated carbon mineralization at moderately increased soil moisture and in particular at higher temperature. Our results indicate that insect herbivores and fungal pathogens can markedly alter initial litter chemical quality, but that afterlife effects on carbon mineralization depend on soil moisture and temperature, suggesting that increased infestation severity under projected climate change potentially increases soil carbon release in deciduous forests in Central Europe.

  8. The Effectiveness of the Geospatial Curriculum Approach on Urban Middle-Level Students' Climate Change Understandings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodzin, Alec M.; Fu, Qiong

    2014-01-01

    Climate change science is a challenging topic for student learning. This quantitative study examined the effectiveness of a geospatial curriculum approach to promote climate change science understandings in an urban school district with eighth-grade students and investigated whether teacher- and student-level factors accounted for students'…

  9. Assessing climate change effects on long-term forest development: adjusting growth, phenology, and seed production in a gap model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meer, van der P.J.; Jorritsma, I.T.M.; Kramer, K.

    2002-01-01

    The sensitivity of forest development to climate change is assessed using a gap model. Process descriptions in the gap model of growth, phenology, and seed production were adjusted for climate change effects using a detailed process-based growth modeland a regression analysis. Simulation runs over 4

  10. Projection of future climate changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate models provide the opportunity to anticipate how the climate system may change due to anthropogenic activities during the 21. century. Studies are based on numerical simulations that explore the evolution of the mean climate and its variability according to different socio-economic scenarios. We present a selection of results from phase 5 of the Climate model intercomparison project (CMIP5) with an illustrative focus on the two French models that participated to this exercise. We describe the effects of human perturbations upon surface temperature, precipitation, the cryo-sphere, but also extreme weather events and the carbon cycle. Results show a number of robust features, on the amplitude and geographical patterns of the expected changes and on the processes at play in these changes. They also show the limitations of such a prospective exercise and persistent uncertainties on some key aspects. (authors)

  11. Genetic programming approach on evaporation losses and its effect on climate change for Vaipar Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K.S.Kasiviswanathan

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is the major problem that every human being is facing over the world. The rise in fossil fuel usage increases the emission of `greenhouse' gases, particularly carbon dioxide continuously into the earth's atmosphere. This causes a rise in the amount of heat from the sun withheld in the earth's atmosphere that would normally radiated back into space. This increase in heat has led to the greenhouse effect, resulting in climate change and rise in temperature along with other climatological parameters directly affects evaporation losses. Accurate modelling and forecasting of these evaporation losses are important for preventing further effects due to climate change. Evaporation is purely non-linear and varying both spatially and temporally. This needs suitable data driven approach to model and should have the ability to take care of all these non-linear behaviour of the system. As such, though there are many empirical and analytical models suggested in the literature for the estimation of evaporation losses, such models should be used with care and caution. Further, difficulties arise in obtaining all the climatological data used in a given analytical or empirical model. Genetic programming (GP is one such technique applied where the non-linearity exist. GP has the flexible mathematical structure which is capable of identifying the non-linear relationship between input and output data sets. Thus, it is easy to construct 'local' models for estimating evaporation losses. The performance of GP model is compared with Thornthwaite method, and results from the study indicate that the GP model performed better than the Thornthwaite method. Forecasting of meteorological parameters such as temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity has been performed using Markovian chain series analysis subsequently it is used to estimate the future evaporation losses using developed GP model. Finally the effect of possible future climate change on

  12. Potential effects of climate change on a marine invasion: The importance of current context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabelle M. CÔTÉ, Stephanie J. GREEN

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Species invasions threaten marine biodiversity globally. There is a concern that climate change is exacerbating this problem. Here, we examined some of the potential effects of warming water temperatures on the invasion of Western Atlantic habitats by a marine predator, the Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans and P. miles. We focussed on two temperature-dependent aspects of lionfish life-history and behaviour: pelagic larval duration, because of its link to dispersal potential, and prey consumption rate, because it is an important determinant of the impacts of lionfish on native prey. Using models derived from fundamental metabolic theory, we predict that the length of time spent by lionfish in the plankton in early life should decrease with warming temperatures, with a concomitant reduction in potential dispersal distance. Although the uncertainty around change in dispersal distances is large, predicted reductions are, on average, more than an order of magnitude smaller than the current rate of range expansion of lionfish in the Caribbean. Nevertheless, because shorter pelagic larval duration has the potential to increase local retention of larvae, local lionfish management will become increasingly important under projected climate change. Increasing temperature is also expected to worsen the current imbalance between rates of prey consumption by lionfish and biomass production by their prey, leading to a heightened decline in native reef fish biomass. However, the magnitude of climate-induced decline is predicted to be minor compared to the effect of current rates of lionfish population increases (and hence overall prey consumption rates on invaded reefs. Placing the predicted effects of climate change in the current context thus reveals that, at least for the lionfish invasion, the threat is clear and present, rather than future [Current Zoology 58 (1: 1–8, 2012].

  13. Potential effects of climate change on a marine invasion: The importance of current context

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Isabelle M. C(O)T(E); Stephanie J. GREEN

    2012-01-01

    Species invasions threaten marine biodiversity globally.There is a concern that climate change is exacerbating this problem.Here,we examined some of the potential effects of warming water temperatures on the invasion of Western Atlantic habitats by a marine predator,the lndo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans and P.miles).We focussed on two temperature-dependent aspects of lionfish life-history and behaviour:pelagic larval duration,because of its link to dispersal potential,and prey consumption rate,because it is an important determinant of the impacts of lionfish on native prey.Using models derived from fundamental metabolic theory,we predict that the length of time spent by lionfish in the plankton in early life should decrease with warming temperatures,with a concomitant reduction in potential dispersal distance.Although the uncertainty around change in dispersal distances is large,predicted reductions are,on average,more than an order of magnitude smaller than the current rate of range expansion of lionfish in the Caribbean.Nevertheless,because shorter pelagic larval duration has the potential to increase local retention of larvae,local lionfish management will become increasingly important under projected climate change.Increasing temperature is also expected to worsen the current imbalance between rates of prey consumption by lionfish and biomass production by their prey,leading to a heightened decline in native reef fish biomass.However,the magnitude of climate-induced decline is predicted to be minor compared to the effect of current rates of lionfish population increases (and hence overall prey consumption rates) on invaded reefs.Placing the predicted effects of climate change in the current context thus reveals that,at least for the lionfish invasion,the threat is clear and present,rather than future [Current Zoology 58 (1):1-8,2012].

  14. Climatic change. What solutions?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    From 1990 to the present day, worldwide greenhouse gas emissions have increased by about 25%. Fighting climatic change has become an urgency: we only have 15 years in front of us to inflect the trajectory of worldwide emissions and to avoid a temperature rise of more than 2 deg. C during this century. Therefore, how is it possible to explain the shift between the need of an urgent action and the apparent inertia of some governing parties? How is it possible to implement a worldwide governance capable to answer the urgency of the fight against climatic change? These are the two questions that this pedagogical and concrete book tries to answer by analysing the different dimensions of climatic change and by making a first status of the building up of the international action, and in particular of the Kyoto protocol. For the post-2012 era, research and negotiations are in progress with the objective of reaching an agreement for the Copenhagen conference of December 2009. Several architectures are possible. This book shades light on the advantages and limitations of each of them with the possible compromises. It supplies a pluri-disciplinary approach of the international negotiations, often considered as complex by the general public. Content: 1 - understanding the climatic change stakes: climatic stakes, the main actors behind the figures, the technical-economical stakes; 2 - understanding the present day architecture of the fight against climatic change: strengths and weaknesses of the Kyoto protocol; encouraging research and technology spreading; the other action means in developing countries; 3 - what structure for a future international agreement?: the Bali negotiation process; the ideal vision: an improved Kyoto protocol; the pragmatic vision: individualized commitments; the negotiation space; preventing a planned fiasco. (J.S.)

  15. "What sceptics believe": The effects of information and deliberation on climate change scepticism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobson, Kersty; Niemeyer, Simon

    2013-05-01

    Scepticism about climate change now appears a pervasive social phenomenon. Research to date has examined the different forms that scepticism can take, from outright denial to general uncertainty. Less is known about what climate sceptics value and believe beyond their climate change doubt, as well as how "entrenched" such beliefs are. In response, this paper discusses research into public reactions to projected climate change in the Australian Capital Region. Using Q Methodology and qualitative data, it outlines five discourses of scepticism and explores the impact regional-scale climate scenarios and a deliberative forum had on these discourses. Results show that both forms of intervention stimulate "discourse migration" amongst research participants. However, migrations are rarely sustained, and sceptical positions are infrequently dispelled outright, suggesting the relationship between climate scepticism, broader beliefs, and the methods used to inform and debate about climate change, are pivotal to comprehending and addressing this issue. PMID:23833106

  16. Energy and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-15

    Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

  17. Effects of climate change on groundwater dependent vegetation. Uncertainties in a changing environment.:A case study in the Kleine Nete basin, Belgium.

    OpenAIRE

    Van Daele, Toon; Dams, Jef; Salvadore, Elga; BATELAAN Okke

    2011-01-01

    Most climate scenarios predict an increase in potential evapotranspiration and an increase in seasonal differences in precipitation for the northwest European region. The combination of changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration influences the groundwater system. As a result the vegetation types that strongly depend on groundwater levels and seepage will change also.The possible effects of climate change on groundwater dependent vegetation was modelled through a chain of climat...

  18. Effect of Climate Change on Plant-Microbe Interaction: An Overview

    OpenAIRE

    Swati Tyagi; Ramesh Singh; Shaily Javeria

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is one of the major issues affecting all of us on our planet. Predicted increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation due to climate change may add complexity and uncertainty to plant and agricultural systems and threaten their sustainable management. It is well known that beneficial plant-associated microorganisms may stimulate plant growth and enhance resistance to disease and abiotic stresses. Climate change will also influence crop quality and the dynamics of the re...

  19. Policies, Actions and Effects for China s Forestry Response to Global Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Climate change is a great concern of various countries, the public and science community, and forest plays an important role in mitigating climate change. The paper made a comprehensive analysis regarding the policy selections of China to promote forestry response to the global climate change, and elaborated the concrete actions and achievements in this regard. Policy selections include: 1) Reinforce tree planting and afforestation, increase the forested area and enhance the capacity of carbon sequestration...

  20. Performance Based Evaluation of Concrete Strength under Various Curing Conditions to Investigate Climate Change Effects

    OpenAIRE

    Tae-Kyun Kim; Seung-Jai Choi; Jang-Ho Jay Kim; Byung-Yun Kim

    2015-01-01

    Recently, the manifestation of global warming-induced climate change has been observed through super typhoons, heavy snowfalls, torrential rains, and extended heat waves. These climate changes have been occurring all over the world and natural disasters have caused severe damage and deterioration of concrete structures and infrastructure. In an effort to deal with these problems due to extreme and abnormal climate changes, studies have been conducted to develop construction technologies and d...

  1. The effect of climate change, population distribution, and climate mitigation on building energy use in the U.S. and China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Yuyu; Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.

    2013-08-01

    A changing climate will affect the energy system in a number of ways, one of which is through changes in demands for heating and cooling in buildings. Understanding the potential effect of climate on heating and cooling demands must take into account not only the manner in which the building sector might evolve over time - including, for example, movements from rural to urban environments in developing countries - but also important uncertainty about the nature of climate change itself and the growth and movements of populations over time. In this study, we explored the uncertainty in climate change impacts on heating and cooling by constructing estimates of heating and cooling degree days for both a reference (no-policy) scenario and a climate mitigation scenario built from 0.5 degree latitude by 0.5 degree longitude resolution output from three different Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three gridded scenarios of population distribution. The implications that changing climate and population distribution might have for building energy consumption in the U.S. and China were then explored by using the heating and cooling degree days results as inputs to a detailed, building energy model, nested in the long-term global integrated assessment framework, Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Across the climate models and population distribution scenarios, the results indicate that unabated climate change would cause total final energy consumption to decrease modestly in both U.S. and China buildings by the end of the century, as decreased heating consumption is more than balanced by increased cooling using primarily electricity. However, the results also indicate that when indirect emissions from the power sector are also taken into account, climate change may have negligible effect on building sector CO2 emissions in the two countries. The variation in results due to variation of population distribution is noticeably smaller than variation due to the use of different

  2. Topologies of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is quickly becoming a ubiquitous socionatural reality, mediating extremes of sociospatial scale from the bodily to the planetary. Although environmentalism invites us to ‘think globally and act locally', the meaning of these scalar designations remains ambiguous. This paper explores...... the topological presuppositions of social theory in the context of global climate change, asking how carbon emissions ‘translate' into various sociomaterial forms. Staging a meeting between Tim Ingold's phenomenology of globes and spheres and the social topologies of actor-network theory (ANT), the...... paper advances a ‘relational-scalar' analytics of spatial practices, technoscience, and power. As technoscience gradually constructs a networked global climate, this ‘grey box' comes to circulate within fluid social spaces, taking on new shades as it hybridizes knowledges, symbols, and practices. Global...

  3. Interacting effects of climate change and habitat fragmentation on drought-sensitive butterflies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, Tom H.; Marshall, Harry H.; Morecroft, Mike D.; Brereton, Tom; Prudhomme, Christel; Huntingford, Chris

    2015-10-01

    Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of some climatic extremes. These may have drastic impacts on biodiversity, particularly if meteorological thresholds are crossed, leading to population collapses. Should this occur repeatedly, populations may be unable to recover, resulting in local extinctions. Comprehensive time series data on butterflies in Great Britain provide a rare opportunity to quantify population responses to both past severe drought and the interaction with habitat area and fragmentation. Here, we combine this knowledge with future projections from multiple climate models, for different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and for simultaneous modelled responses to different landscape characteristics. Under RCP8.5, which is associated with `business as usual’ emissions, widespread drought-sensitive butterfly population extinctions could occur as early as 2050. However, by managing landscapes and particularly reducing habitat fragmentation, the probability of persistence until mid-century improves from around zero to between 6 and 42% (95% confidence interval). Achieving persistence with a greater than 50% chance and right through to 2100 is possible only under both low climate change (RCP2.6) and semi-natural habitat restoration. Our data show that, for these drought-sensitive butterflies, persistence is achieved more effectively by restoring semi-natural landscapes to reduce fragmentation, rather than simply focusing on increasing habitat area, but this will only be successful in combination with substantial emission reductions.

  4. Pests and Agricultural Production under Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Ameden, Holly A.; David R Just

    2001-01-01

    Although the effect of climate change on agricultural pests has been studied by biologists, thus far, large-scale assessments of climate change and agriculture have not included the impact of pests. We develop a simple theoretical model of farmer-pest interaction under climate change and explore the potential impacts on land values.

  5. DOE SBIR Phase II Final Technical Report - Assessing Climate Change Effects on Wind Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whiteman, Cameron; Capps, Scott

    2014-11-05

    Specialized Vertum Partners software tools were prototyped, tested and commercialized to allow wind energy stakeholders to assess the uncertainties of climate change on wind power production and distribution. This project resulted in three commercially proven products and a marketing tool. The first was a Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) based resource evaluation system. The second was a web-based service providing global 10m wind data from multiple sources to wind industry subscription customers. The third product addressed the needs of our utility clients looking at climate change effects on electricity distribution. For this we collaborated on the Santa Ana Wildfire Threat Index (SAWTi), which was released publicly last quarter. Finally to promote these products and educate potential users we released “Gust or Bust”, a graphic-novel styled marketing publication.

  6. Effects of climate-induced habitat changes on a key zooplankton species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Möller, Klas O.; Schmidt, Jörn O.; St. John, Michael;

    2015-01-01

    Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems have become increasingly apparent during the past decades. In consequence, it is necessary to study how these alterations can affect the habitat and population dynamics of key organisms. Here we used a video plankton recorder (VPR) to investigate...... the effect of climate-induced habitat changes on the copepod Pseudocalanus acuspes, a key species in the Baltic Sea. The VPR allowed the observation of reproducing copepod females, identified by attached egg sacs, usually lost during traditional net sampling. We compared the small-scale distribution of our...... target species during non-inflow and inflow periods. Our study showed a large increase in the availability of suitable habitat after the inflow event due to improved oxygen and salinity conditions. Furthermore, increased copepod abundance and a deeper and wider vertical distribution was apparent...

  7. Possible effects of a change in climate on the forests of Central Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changes of climate greatly affect soil management and civilisation. The one in the offing, in contrast to those of the past, is set off by man himself. The high speed of change indicated here is especially problematic, because the speed of vegetation adaptation can probably not keep up with it. The processes in the offing can above all be attributed to a considerable CO2-increase in the earth's atmosphere. The temperature rise predicted by numerous climatologists and the different meteorological effects resulting from it may have considerably impact on various plant species and plant communities. This applies especially to species and phytozoenoses which are already today found in ecologically marginal spheres. Using several examples, transformations of tree-species ranges and competitive conditions between tree species caused by climate changes are illustrated in connection with some methodological relevancies. Based on the climate changes predicted by meteorologists the attempt is made to derive some preliminary conclusions for forest management. Suggestions are made on choice of tree species, forest restoration, stand treatment, and forest protection. Concluding and referring to numerous literature citations, measures to reduce further CO2-emissions and to withdraw carbon from the atmosphere are briefly discussed. (orig./MG)

  8. Rural perception to the effects of climate change in Otukpo, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roland Clement Abah

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The study has further examined rural perception to the effects of climate change. The study used rural settlements in Otukpo, Nigeria as a case study. Primary and secondary data were utilised for the study. Data collection was done through the use of a questionnaire with open-ended questions and questions with multiple answers. A total of 100 questionnaires were randomly distributed among household heads in 10 settlements selected from 58 rural settlements for the study. Spatial distribution of the rural settlements were analysed using the nearest neighbour statistical analysis while descriptive statistics such as graphs and tables were used to present data. Rural settlements in Otukpo are randomly distributed and may be tending towards clustering. This is indicated by an Rn index value of 0.96 from the nearest neighbour analysis. Most of the settlements (59% have a distance of two to three kilometres between them. There is an inadequacy of functional facilities and poor access to services in the rural settlements in Otukpo. Respondents in rural settlements in Otukpo are faced with the risk of agricultural occupational loss (22%, water shortages (42%, flooding (29%, land based conflicts (16%, health hazards (12%, erosion (26%, and migration (57%. With evidence of climate change ascertained globally including Nigeria, the study concludes that rural settlements in Otukpo and elsewhere are vulnerable to the effects of climate change which is evident in literature. Government should plan appropriately to optimize standard of living and provide basic functional facilities and services for rural settlements.

  9. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-08-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported.

  10. Potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on a shallow natural lake fish assemblage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breeggemann, Jason J.; Kaemingk, Mark A.; DeBates, T.J.; Paukert, Craig P.; Krause, J.; Letvin, Alexander P.; Stevens, Tanner M.; Willis, David W.; Chipps, Steven R.

    2015-01-01

    Much uncertainty exists around how fish communities in shallow lakes will respond to climate change. In this study, we modelled the effects of increased water temperatures on consumption and growth rates of two piscivores (northern pike [Esox lucius] and largemouth bass [Micropterus salmoides]) and examined relative effects of consumption by these predators on two prey species (bluegill [Lepomis macrochirus] and yellow perch [Perca flavescens]). Bioenergetics models were used to simulate the effects of climate change on growth and food consumption using predicted 2040 and 2060 temperatures in a shallow Nebraska Sandhill lake, USA. The patterns and magnitude of daily and cumulative consumption during the growing season (April–October) were generally similar between the two predators. However, growth of northern pike was always reduced (−3 to −45% change) compared to largemouth bass that experienced subtle changes (4 to −6% change) in weight by the end of the growing season. Assuming similar population size structure and numbers of predators in 2040–2060, future consumption of bluegill and yellow perch by northern pike and largemouth bass will likely increase (range: 3–24%), necessitating greater prey biomass to meet future energy demands. The timing of increased predator consumption will likely shift towards spring and fall (compared to summer), when prey species may not be available in the quantities required. Our findings suggest that increased water temperatures may affect species at the edge of their native range (i.e. northern pike) and a potential mismatch between predator and prey could exist.

  11. Classifying climate change adaptation frameworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Jennifer

    2014-05-01

    Complex socio-ecological demographics are factors that must be considered when addressing adaptation to the potential effects of climate change. As such, a suite of deployable climate change adaptation frameworks is necessary. Multiple frameworks that are required to communicate the risks of climate change and facilitate adaptation. Three principal adaptation frameworks have emerged from the literature; Scenario - Led (SL), Vulnerability - Led (VL) and Decision - Centric (DC). This study aims to identify to what extent these adaptation frameworks; either, planned or deployed are used in a neighbourhood vulnerable to climate change. This work presents a criterion that may be used as a tool for identifying the hallmarks of adaptation frameworks and thus enabling categorisation of projects. The study focussed on the coastal zone surrounding the Sizewell nuclear power plant in Suffolk in the UK. An online survey was conducted identifying climate change adaptation projects operating in the study area. This inventory was analysed to identify the hallmarks of each adaptation project; Levels of dependency on climate model information, Metrics/units of analysis utilised, Level of demographic knowledge, Level of stakeholder engagement, Adaptation implementation strategies and Scale of adaptation implementation. The study found that climate change adaptation projects could be categorised, based on the hallmarks identified, in accordance with the published literature. As such, the criterion may be used to establish the matrix of adaptation frameworks present in a given area. A comprehensive summary of the nature of adaptation frameworks in operation in a locality provides a platform for further comparative analysis. Such analysis, enabled by the criterion, may aid the selection of appropriate frameworks enhancing the efficacy of climate change adaptation.

  12. Forest Policies Addressing Climate Change in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    As a developing country with a large population and a fragile ecological environment, China is particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Beginning with the Rio Conference of 1992 China has played a progressively enhanced role in combating climate change. A series of policies and measures to address climate change have been taken in the overall context of national sustainable development strategy, making positive contributions to the mitigation and adaptation to climate change, among ...

  13. Preparing for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holdgate, M

    1989-01-01

    There is a distinct probability that humankind is changing the climate and at the same time raising the sea level of the world. The most plausible projections we have now suggest a rise in mean world temperature of between 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2030--just 40 years hence. This is a bigger change in a smaller period than we know of in the experience of the earth's ecosystems and human societies. It implies that by 2030 the earth will be warmer than at any time in the past 120,000 years. In the same period, we are likely to see a rise of 15-30 centimeters in sea level, partly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and partly to the expansion of the warmer seas. This may not seem much--but it comes on top of the 12-centimeter rise in the past century and we should recall that over 1/2 the world's population lives in zones on or near coasts. A quarter meter rise in sea level could have drastic consequences for countries like the Maldives or the Netherlands, where much of the land lies below the 2-meter contour. The cause of climate change is known as the 'greenhouse effect'. Greenhouse glass has the property that it is transparent to radiation coming in from the sun, but holds back radiation to space from the warmed surfaces inside the greenhouse. Certain gases affect the atmosphere in the same way. There are 5 'greenhouse gases' and we have been roofing ourselves with them all: carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25% above preindustrial levels and are likely to double within a century, due to tropical forest clearance and especially to the burning of increasing quantities of coal and other fossil fuels; methane concentrations are now twice their preindustrial levels as a result of releases from agriculture; nitrous oxide has increased due to land clearance for agriculture, use of fertilizers, and fossil fuel combustion; ozone levels near the earth's surface have increased due mainly to pollution from motor vehicles; and

  14. Climate Change and Corporate Environmental Responsibility

    OpenAIRE

    Dewan Mahboob HOSSAIN; Chowdhury, M. Jahangir Alam

    2012-01-01

    Climate change, as an international environmental issue, is getting a lot of attention. The negative effects of climate change have become one of the most talked about issues among Governments, scientists, environmentalists and others. It is said that business activities are affecting the climate negatively. In order to minimize the negative effects of climate change, the activities of the businesses should be controlled and encouraged to perform in a socially responsible manner. The article ...

  15. Romania within the Context of Climatic Changes

    OpenAIRE

    Dragoş, Raluca; Dragoş, Gheorghe-Viorel

    2011-01-01

    Under the circumstances of the menacing climatic changes upon both environment and social-economic framework, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has established its main objective “achieving stabilization of gas concentrations within climatic system”. Due to the fact that the main cause of the climatic changes derives from the exhausted gases resulting in the greenhouse effect, measures, targets and programs of reducing greenhouse effects gases will be esta...

  16. Effects of climate change on the production and consumption of electricity in Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forsius, J.; Kuivalainen, P.; Maekinen, P. [Imatran Voima Oy, Helsinki (Finland). Environmental Protection Div.

    1996-12-31

    In the next few decades, the probable strengthening of the greenhouse effect may bring about considerable changes in energy production and consumption, which depend on climate. It is presumed that some of the changes will occur even if the rise in greenhouse gas concentration will be reduced. Because the investments in energy production have a long-term influence, decision-makers should have an idea about the impact of the strengthening of the greenhouse effect on energy production and consumption in Finland. According to the results of this study, the effects of climate change on the total consumption and production of electricity will be limited. The structure of both electricity consumption and production will remain rather similar, the most important changes applying to hydro power. The consumption of heating electricity will decrease substantially. Because the non- climate-dependent sectors of electricity consumption (process industry and services) account for more than a half of the total consumption, the effect on the total consumption is, however, rather small. The total annual hydropower production in Finland was estimated to be 2 % more both in the year 2025 and 2100 than at present. The annual mean discharges do not change very much compared to the present. The greatest difference in comparison with the present is the noticeable smoothing of the annual discharge variation. Particularly in Northern Finland the smoothing is considerable in average circumstances. In the scenario for the year 2100, in particular, the spring flood peak is, on average, significantly reduced, the flood peak takes place earlier and the average winter discharges increase

  17. Climate change, biodiversity, ticks and tick-borne diseases: The butterfly effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filipe Dantas-Torres

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available We have killed wild animals for obtaining food and decimated forests for many reasons. Nowadays, we are burning fossil fuels as never before and even exploring petroleum in deep waters. The impact of these activities on our planet is now visible to the naked eye and the debate on climate change is warming up in scientific meetings and becoming a priority on the agenda of both scientists and policy decision makers. On the occasion of the Impact of Environmental Changes on Infectious Diseases (IECID meeting, held in the 2015 in Sitges, Spain, I was invited to give a keynote talk on climate change, biodiversity, ticks and tick-borne diseases. The aim of the present article is to logically extend my rationale presented on the occasion of the IECID meeting. This article is not intended to be an exhaustive review, but an essay on climate change, biodiversity, ticks and tick-borne diseases. It may be anticipated that warmer winters and extended autumn and spring seasons will continue to drive the expansion of the distribution of some tick species (e.g., Ixodes ricinus to northern latitudes and to higher altitudes. Nonetheless, further studies are advocated to improve our understanding of the complex interactions between landscape, climate, host communities (biodiversity, tick demography, pathogen diversity, human demography, human behaviour, economics, and politics, also considering all ecological processes (e.g., trophic cascades and other possible interacting effects (e.g., mutual effects of increased greenhouse gas emissions and increased deforestation rates. The multitude of variables and interacting factors involved, and their complexity and dynamism, make tick-borne transmission systems beyond (current human comprehension. That is, perhaps, the main reason for our inability to precisely predict new epidemics of vector-borne diseases in general.

  18. Climate change, biodiversity, ticks and tick-borne diseases: The butterfly effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dantas-Torres, Filipe

    2015-12-01

    We have killed wild animals for obtaining food and decimated forests for many reasons. Nowadays, we are burning fossil fuels as never before and even exploring petroleum in deep waters. The impact of these activities on our planet is now visible to the naked eye and the debate on climate change is warming up in scientific meetings and becoming a priority on the agenda of both scientists and policy decision makers. On the occasion of the Impact of Environmental Changes on Infectious Diseases (IECID) meeting, held in the 2015 in Sitges, Spain, I was invited to give a keynote talk on climate change, biodiversity, ticks and tick-borne diseases. The aim of the present article is to logically extend my rationale presented on the occasion of the IECID meeting. This article is not intended to be an exhaustive review, but an essay on climate change, biodiversity, ticks and tick-borne diseases. It may be anticipated that warmer winters and extended autumn and spring seasons will continue to drive the expansion of the distribution of some tick species (e.g., Ixodes ricinus) to northern latitudes and to higher altitudes. Nonetheless, further studies are advocated to improve our understanding of the complex interactions between landscape, climate, host communities (biodiversity), tick demography, pathogen diversity, human demography, human behaviour, economics, and politics, also considering all ecological processes (e.g., trophic cascades) and other possible interacting effects (e.g., mutual effects of increased greenhouse gas emissions and increased deforestation rates). The multitude of variables and interacting factors involved, and their complexity and dynamism, make tick-borne transmission systems beyond (current) human comprehension. That is, perhaps, the main reason for our inability to precisely predict new epidemics of vector-borne diseases in general. PMID:26835253

  19. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  20. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmgren, K.; Karlen, W. [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography

    1998-12-01

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  1. Learning Progressions & Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Joyce M.; de los Santos, Elizabeth X.; Anderson, Charles W.

    2015-01-01

    Our society is currently having serious debates about sources of energy and global climate change. But do students (and the public) have the requisite knowledge to engage these issues as informed citizenry? The learning-progression research summarized here indicates that only 10% of high school students typically have a level of understanding…

  2. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Carmin; K. Tierney; E. Chu; L.M. Hunter; J.T. Roberts; L. Shi

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the financ

  3. Corporate Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    The American Chamber of Commerce, the People's Republic of China (AmCham-China) and the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai recently released "American Corporate Experience in a Changing China: Insights From AmCham Business Climate Surveys, 1999-2005." Excerpts of the report follow:

  4. DTU Climate Change Technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    During 2008 and 2009, DTU held a workshop series focusing on assessment of and adaption to climate changes as well as on mitigation of green house gasses. In the workshops, a total of 1500 scientists, government officials and business leaders have outlined scenarios for technology development...

  5. Modeling the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change on Streamflow in the Delaware River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, P. Y. S.; Endreny, T. A.; Kroll, C. N.; Williamson, T. N.

    2014-12-01

    Forest-cover loss and drinking-water reservoirs in the upper Delaware River Basin of New York may alter summer low streamflows, which could degrade the in-stream habitat for the endangered dwarf wedgemussel. Our project analyzes how flow statistics change with land-cover change for 30-year increments of model-simulated streamflow hydrographs for three watersheds of concern to the National Park Service: the East Branch, West Branch, and main stem of the Delaware River. We use four treatments for land cover ranging from historical high to low forest cover. We subject each land cover to adjusted GCM climate scenarios for 1600, 1900, 1940, and 2040 to isolate land cover from potential climate-change effects. Hydrographs are simulated using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER), a TOPMODEL-based United States Geological Survey hydrologic decision-support tool, which uses the variable-source-area concept and water budgets to generate streamflow. Model parameters for each watershed change with land-use, and capture differences in soil-physical properties that control how rainfall infiltrates, evaporates, transpires, is stored in the soil, and moves to the stream. Our results analyze flow statistics used as indicators of hydrologic alteration, and access streamflow events below the critical flow needed to provide sustainable habitat for dwarf wedgemussels. These metrics will demonstrate how changes in climate and land use might affect flow statistics. Initial results show that the 1940 WATER simulation outputs generally match observed unregulated low flows from that time period, while performance for regulated flow from the same time period and from 1600, 1900, and 2040 require model input adjustments. Our study will illustrate how increased forest cover could potentially restore in-stream habitat for the endangered dwarf wedgemussel for current and future climate conditions.

  6. Modelling climate change effects on benthos: Distributional shifts in the North Sea from 2001 to 2099

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinert, Michael; Mathis, Moritz; Kröncke, Ingrid; Neumann, Hermann; Pohlmann, Thomas; Reiss, Henning

    2016-06-01

    In the marine realm, climate change can affect a variety of physico-chemical properties with wide-ranging biological effects, but the knowledge of how climate change affects benthic distributions is limited and mainly restricted to coastal environments. To project the response of benthic species of a shelf sea (North Sea) to the expected climate change, the distributions of 75 marine benthic species were modelled and the spatial changes in distribution were projected for 2099 based on modelled bottom temperature and salinity changes using the IPCC scenario A1B. Mean bottom temperature was projected to increase between 0.15 and 5.4 °C, while mean bottom salinity was projected to moderately increase by 1.7. The spatial changes in species distribution were modelled with Maxent and the direction and extent of these changes were assessed. The results showed a latitudinal northward shift for 64% of the species (maximum 109 km; brittle star Ophiothrix fragilis) and a southward shift for 36% (maximum 101 km; hermit crab Pagurus prideaux and the associated cloak anemone Adamsia carciniopados; 105 km). The relatively low rates of distributional shifts compared to fish or plankton species were probably influenced by the regional topography. The environmental gradients in the central North Sea along the 50 m depth contour might act as a 'barrier', possibly resulting in a compression of distribution range and hampering further shifts to the north. For 49 species this resulted in a habitat loss up to 100%, while only 11 species could benefit from the warming in terms of habitat gain. Particularly the benthic communities of the southern North Sea, where the strongest temperature increase was projected, would be strongly affected by the distributional changes, since key species showed northward shifts and high rates of habitat loss, with potential ramifications for the functioning of the ecosystem.

  7. Interactive effects of reactive nitrogen and climate change on US water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, J.; Bernhardt, E. S.; Finlay, J. C.; Chan, F.; Nolan, B. T.; Howarth, B.; Hall, E.; Boyer, E. W.

    2011-12-01

    Water resources and aquatic ecosystems are increasingly strained by withdrawals for agriculture and drinking water supply, nitrogen and other pollutant inputs, and climate change. We describe current and projected effects of the interactions of reactive nitrogen (N) and climate change on water resources of the United States. As perturbations to the N cycle intensify in a warmer less predictable climate, interactions will negatively affect the services we expect of our water resources. There are also feedbacks to the climate system itself through the production of greenhouse gases. We conclude: 1. Nitrogen concentrations will increase in the nation's waters from increased N loading and higher N mineralization rates. N export from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems exhibits a high sensitivity to climate variations. 2. Consequences range from eutrophication and acidification, which reduce natural biodiversity and harm economically valuable fisheries, to adverse impacts on human health. 3. Extreme flood events have the potential to transport N rapidly long distances downstream from its source. 4. A recent national assessment found 67% of streams derived more than 37% of their total nitrate load from base flow often derived from groundwater. Long residence times for groundwater nitrate below agricultural fields may cause benefits from proper N management practices to take decades to be realized under current and future climates. 5. Streams, wetlands, rivers, lakes, estuaries and continental shelves are hotspots for denitrification. Maintenance of N removal capacity thus a critical component of eutrophication management under changing climate and land use conditions. 6. The amount of N inputs from fertilizer and manure use, human population, and deposition is tightly coupled with hydrology to influence the rates and proportion of N emitted to the atmosphere as N2O. About 20% of global N2O emissions come from groundwater, lakes, rivers, and estuaries; stream and wetland

  8. The effects of climatic change on crop production. Results of a five-year research project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mela, T.; Carter, T.; Hakala, K.; Kaukoranta, T.; Laurila, H.; Niemi, K.; Saarikko, R.; Tiilikkala, K. [Agricultural Research Centre of Finland, Jokioinen (Finland); Hannukkala, A. [Agricultural Research Centre, Rovaniemi (Finland). Lapland Research Station

    1996-12-31

    The aim of this research project, funded jointly by SILMU and by the Agricultural Research Centre of Finland, was to evaluate the possible effects of changes in climate and carbon dioxide concentration on the growth, development and yield of field crops and on crop pests and diseases in Finland. The study focused on two cereal crops (spring wheat and spring barley), a grass species (meadow fescue), some common pathogens of cereals and potato, insect pests of small fruits and nematode risk of potato and sugar beet. The results of this study indicate the following effects on crop production of the `best guess` climate change anticipated for Finland by 2050: A lengthening of the potential growing season of 3-5 weeks. A northward expansion of about 250-500 km in suitability for cereal production. Increased yields of adapted spring cereals. New, longer-season cultivars would benefit from both higher temperatures and elevated CO{sub 2}. Improved potential for the cultivation of higher-yielding winter sown cereals. Increased grass yields due to a lengthening growing season and increased growth rates, assuming that water and nutrient limitations are minor. However, there is a possibility of reduced winter hardening under higher autumn temperatures and an increased risk of winter damage. Potential for the successful cultivation of new crops like maize in southern Finland. Increased potential for yield losses due to crop pests and diseases under climatic warming. The range of many species is expected to expand northwards, additional generations of some species would develop successfully, and new species may become established in Finland. The research is continuing as part of a new European Community project, and will explore a wider range of crop types, focusing on the effects of climate change on agricultural risk at national scale

  9. Climate Change Effects to Plant Ecosystems - Genetic Resources for Future Barley Breeding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz

    were identified for possible use in breeding of climate resilient cultivars and SNP-markers that link to traits favourable in changed environments. Basic knowledge of plant response to multifactor climate treatments has been added as well as data on numerous genotypes modeling the impact of climate......A growing population and a considerable increase in living standards worldwide are increasing the demand on the primary production. At the same time, climate change is projected to lower the primary production due to increases in the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide ([CO2]) and ozone...... ([O3]), rising temperatures and extreme climate events such as floods, storms and heatwaves. These predictions are compounded by the projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which state that the world is heading towards a worst-case climate scenario unless actions are taken...

  10. Climatic change and insect outbreaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Insects represent the dominant natural disturbance factor in Canada's forests. Host trees are often killed over extensive areas. This paper examines how climate change may influence insect outbreak regimes in Canada's forests, primarily focusing on temperature, as the potential rate of increase of many insects is dependent on temperature. The extent and frequency of temperature extremes can have major impacts on insect populations. Temperature increases will accelerate development, activity and movement as well as influence reduced mortality from climatic factors. In addition, higher temperatures are likely to facilitate extended periods of activity at both ends of the season. It was concluded that a number of complex factors will likely determine the direct effect of increasing temperatures on insects. Changes in the abiotic environment, changes in species interactions, and changes in the regimes of natural selection will influence future insect activity. For example, increases in carbon:nitrogen ratios are expected to cause insects to eat more in order to maintain dietary nitrogen. The effects of climate change is expected to differ quantitatively among species in the complex food chains where most insect species are embedded. It is also assumed that if geographic distribution of insects shifts in response to climate change, their impact should basically remain static. Most published scenarios suggest that outbreaks of insects in Canada will last longer and occur more frequently where the climate will become warmer. However, climate warming may also allow certain insects to extend their ranges into regions of vulnerable host species. It was suggested that further research is necessary, as no data has been collected on how insects might respond to predicted, concurrent changes in atmospheric chemistry and climate. 19 refs

  11. Climate change and fuel poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Simon Dresner; Paul Ekins

    2005-01-01

    The research examined the possible effects of rapid climate change on fuel poverty (needing to spend more than 10% of income to maintain a satisfactory level of warmth and other energy services in the home). One particular concern was the prospect that there might be a shutting off of the Gulf Stream, which warms Britain and the rest of north-western Europe. Computer simulations of the climate indicate that shutting down the Gulf Stream would cool England by about 3°C. Climate is not the only...

  12. Long-term climate change effects on dynamics of microorganisms and carbon in the root-zone

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reinsch, Sabine

    have major impacts on the C balance under changing climatic conditions. A comparison of C allocation under ambient and simulated future climatic conditions showed that the terrestrial C balance might be changed by reducing soil organic matter mineralization. Our results suggest that the impact......Climate change factors such as elevated CO2 concentration, warming and changes in precipitation patterns have been shown to affect terrestrial carbon (C) cycling. The objective of this Ph.D. project is to track recently assimilated C into belowground compartments to investigate the effects...... of climate change on belowground C allocation. The impacts of climate change as single and combined treatments were applied to heath/grassland vegetation and the short-term terrestrial C turnover was investigated using in-situ 13CO2 pulse-labeling. We developed a mobile and low-cost pulse-labeling setup...

  13. A Evaluation of Effects on a Ecosystem and Countermeasures in accordance with Climate Change I- Forest Ecosystem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Yong Ha; Jeon, Seong Woo; Choi, Jae Yong; Jeong Hwi Chol; Kim, Jeong Won [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    2000-12-01

    Climate change requests a lot of changes in the existing life style and economic developing system, which form the foundation of modern culture and economic/social development. Especially, in Korea, whose economic basis is mainly dependent on fossil energy, it is expected that the change of policies on climate change have a bigger effect on many-sided fields including ecosystem than other nations. Therefore, even though all of the Government, academic organizations, and private organizations have made efforts to estimate effects of climate change and to prepare countermeasures, the focus has been on forecast and evaluation of the mutual effect between industrial/economic activities and climate change. Forecast of ecosystem change and preservation of ecosystem according to climate change is another political field to promote. However, such a field has not been promoted systematically in Korea. The Institute recognizing such a current state, as part of the policy on ecosystem preservation according to climate change, forecasted the effect on forest ecosystem, analyzed the economic effects according to the effect of forest ecosystem, and started this study to prepare the countermeasures of the Government-level. This study collected and analyzed international trend and necessary data to develop the model, which would be executed in future, and then suggested the selection and development of the model fitted to Korea. There could be differences between Institute's view and the Government/other institutes. However, such differences are caused by the different methods in capturing the effects of various ecosystems. Such various approaching methods will be of great help to estimate the correct effects and to establish the Government's policies as base data. I hope that this study cannot only be applied to analyze the effects of forest ecosystem according to climate change but contribute to enlarging the understanding of various problems according to climate

  14. Climate change. Managing the risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to address the key question if a targeted approach to climate change response is feasible, different aspects of this question are analyzed. First, the scientific and political aspects of different options to determine specific long-term objectives for climate change are evaluated on the basis of the current scientific insights and the experiences over the last 5 years to develop climate objectives. Preliminary directions for such objectives are given. Next, important analytical tools are discussed that can be applied to analyze the different options and their implications in detail. In order to evaluate the implications of mitigation options, strategies that are consistent with the preliminary climate goals are analyzed in the third part. In chapter 2, the concept of long-term environmental goals, derived from critical levels of climate change, is discussed. Also a historical perspective is provided. A new, systematic regionalized and risk-based approach to elaborate the ultimate objective of the Framework Convention on Climate Change is proposed. In chapter 3 scenarios and integrated models are discussed. Central is the description of scenarios that were developed with RlVM's Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) and the US-EPA's Atmospheric Stabilization Framework (ASF). In chapter 4 potential long-term international emissions control strategies for the different sources and sinks of the most important greenhouse gases are analyzed. Carbon dioxide from energy, carbon dioxide from deforestation, and non-CO2 greenhouse gases are dealt with subsequently. The dissertation ends with general conclusions and recommendations for the further design of a targeted approach to climate change response, the development of analytical tools to support policy development in the area of climate change, and strategies that are consistent with preliminary long-term environmental goals. 66 figs., 8 tabs., 417 refs., 1 appendix

  15. Effects of climate change, extreme events and management on plants, pollinators and mutualistic interaction networks

    OpenAIRE

    Hoiß, Bernhard

    2013-01-01

    I. Climate change comprises average temperatures rise, changes in the distribution of precipitation and an increased amount and intensity of extreme climatic events in the last decades. Considering these serious changes in the abiotic environment it seems obvious that ecosystems also change. Flora and fauna have to adapt to the fast changing conditions, migrate or go extinct. This might result in shifts in biodiversity, species composition, species interactions and in ecosystem functioning an...

  16. Climate change effects on high-elevation hydropower system in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madani Larijani, Kaveh

    The high-elevation hydropower system in California, composed of more than 150 hydropower plants and regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), supplies 74 percent of in-state hydropower. The system has modest reservoir capacities and has been designed to take advantage of snowpack. The expected shift of runoff peak from spring to winter as a result of climate warming, resulting in snowpack reduction and earlier snowmelt, might have important effects on hydropower operations. Estimation of climate warming effects on such a large system by conventional simulation or optimization methods would be tedious and expensive. This dissertation presents a novel approach for modeling large hydropower systems. Conservation of energy and energy flows are used as the basis for modeling high-elevation high-head hydropower systems in California. The unusual energy basis for reservoir modeling allows for development of hydropower operations models to estimate large-scale system behavior without the expense and time needed to develop traditional streamflow and reservoir volume-based models in absence of storage and release capacity, penstock head, and efficiency information. An Energy-Based Hydropower Optimization Model (EBHOM) is developed to facilitate a practical climate change study based on the historical generation data high-elevation hydropower plants in California. Employing recent historical hourly energy prices, energy generation in California is explored for three climate warming scenarios (dry warming, wet warming, and warming-only) over 14 years, representing a range of hydrologic conditions. Currently, the high-elevation hydropower plants in California have to renew their FERC licenses. A method based on cooperative game theory is developed to explore FERC relicensing process, in which dam owners negotiate over the available instream water with other interest groups downstream. It is discussed how the lack of incentive for cooperation results in long

  17. Long term effects on potential repository sites: climatic and geomorphological changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A study of the effects of climatic variability on the geomorphological processes operating on the landscape are important in the study of radioactive waste repository sites. The effects of glacial erosion and deposition are fundamental to an examination of repository safety, particularly in North Britain. Rates of climatic shift need to be examined. Predictive simulation models, based on a knowledge of past climatic events, for future global climates are proposed. (UK)

  18. Simulating the effects of climate change and climate variability on carbon dynamics in Arctic tundra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stieglitz, Marc; Giblin, Anne; Hobbie, John; Williams, Matthew; Kling, George

    2000-12-01

    Through a simple modeling exercise, three mechanisms have been identified, each operating at a different timescale, that may govern carbon dynamics in Arctic tundra regions and partially explain observed CO2 flux variability. At short timescales the biosphere reacts to meteorological forcing. Drier conditions are associated with aerobic soil decomposition, a large CO2efflux, and a net ecosystem loss of carbon. Cooler and moister conditions favor slower anaerobic decomposition in soils, good growing conditions, and terrestrial carbon sequestration. At intermediate timescales, periods of terrestrial carbon loss are directly linked to periods of carbon sequestration by the ability of the ecosystem to retain labile nitrogen. Labile nitrogen released to the soil during periods when the tundra is a source of carbon (soil respiration > net primary productivity) is retained within the ecosystem and accessed during periods when carbon sequestration is favored (net primary productivity > soil respiration). Finally, the ability of vegetation to respond to long-term changes in soil nutrient status via changes in leaf nitrogen and leaf area index modulates this dynamic at intermediate to long timescales.

  19. Modelling Regional Climate Change Effects On Potential Natural Ecosystems in Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study aims to demonstrate the potential of a process-based regional ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, driven by climate scenarios generated by a regional climate model system (RCM) to generate predictions useful for assessing effects of climatic and CO2 change on the key ecosystem services of carbon uptake and storage. Scenarios compatible with the A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and with boundary conditions from two general circulation models (GCMs) - HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 - were used in simulations to explore changes in tree species distributions, vegetation structure, productivity and ecosystem carbon stocks for the late 21st Century, thus accommodating a proportion of the GCM-based and emissions-based uncertainty in future climate development. The simulations represented in this study were of the potential natural vegetation ignoring direct anthropogenic effects. Results suggest that shifts in climatic zones may lead to changes in species distribution and community composition among seven major tree species of natural Swedish forests. All four climate scenarios were associated with an extension of the boreal forest treeline with respect to altitude and latitude. In the boreal and boreo-nemoral zones, the dominance of Norway spruce and to a lesser extent Scots pine was reduced in favour of deciduous broadleaved tree species. The model also predicted substantial increases in vegetation net primary productivity (NPP), especially in central Sweden. Expansion of forest cover and increased local biomass enhanced the net carbon sink over central and northern Sweden, despite increased carbon release through decomposition processes in the soil. In southern Sweden, reduced growing season soil moisture levels counterbalanced the positive effects of a longer growing season and increased carbon supply on NPP, with the result that many areas were converted from a sink to a source of carbon by the late 21st

  20. Effects of Climate Change and Fisheries Bycatch on Shy Albatross (Thalassarche cauta in Southern Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robin B Thomson

    Full Text Available The impacts of climate change on marine species are often compounded by other stressors that make direct attribution and prediction difficult. Shy albatrosses (Thalassarche cauta breeding on Albatross Island, Tasmania, show an unusually restricted foraging range, allowing easier discrimination between the influence of non-climate stressors (fisheries bycatch and environmental variation. Local environmental conditions (rainfall, air temperature, and sea-surface height, an indicator of upwelling during the vulnerable chick-rearing stage, have been correlated with breeding success of shy albatrosses. We use an age-, stage- and sex-structured population model to explore potential relationships between local environmental factors and albatross breeding success while accounting for fisheries bycatch by trawl and longline fisheries. The model uses time-series of observed breeding population counts, breeding success, adult and juvenile survival rates and a bycatch mortality observation for trawl fishing to estimate fisheries catchability, environmental influence, natural mortality rate, density dependence, and productivity. Observed at-sea distributions for adult and juvenile birds were coupled with reported fishing effort to estimate vulnerability to incidental bycatch. The inclusion of rainfall, temperature and sea-surface height as explanatory variables for annual chick mortality rate was statistically significant. Global climate models predict little change in future local average rainfall, however, increases are forecast in both temperatures and upwelling, which are predicted to have detrimental and beneficial effects, respectively, on breeding success. The model shows that mitigation of at least 50% of present bycatch is required to offset losses due to future temperature changes, even if upwelling increases substantially. Our results highlight the benefits of using an integrated modeling approach, which uses available demographic as well as

  1. Effects of Climate Change and Fisheries Bycatch on Shy Albatross (Thalassarche cauta) in Southern Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, Robin B; Alderman, Rachael L; Tuck, Geoffrey N; Hobday, Alistair J

    2015-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on marine species are often compounded by other stressors that make direct attribution and prediction difficult. Shy albatrosses (Thalassarche cauta) breeding on Albatross Island, Tasmania, show an unusually restricted foraging range, allowing easier discrimination between the influence of non-climate stressors (fisheries bycatch) and environmental variation. Local environmental conditions (rainfall, air temperature, and sea-surface height, an indicator of upwelling) during the vulnerable chick-rearing stage, have been correlated with breeding success of shy albatrosses. We use an age-, stage- and sex-structured population model to explore potential relationships between local environmental factors and albatross breeding success while accounting for fisheries bycatch by trawl and longline fisheries. The model uses time-series of observed breeding population counts, breeding success, adult and juvenile survival rates and a bycatch mortality observation for trawl fishing to estimate fisheries catchability, environmental influence, natural mortality rate, density dependence, and productivity. Observed at-sea distributions for adult and juvenile birds were coupled with reported fishing effort to estimate vulnerability to incidental bycatch. The inclusion of rainfall, temperature and sea-surface height as explanatory variables for annual chick mortality rate was statistically significant. Global climate models predict little change in future local average rainfall, however, increases are forecast in both temperatures and upwelling, which are predicted to have detrimental and beneficial effects, respectively, on breeding success. The model shows that mitigation of at least 50% of present bycatch is required to offset losses due to future temperature changes, even if upwelling increases substantially. Our results highlight the benefits of using an integrated modeling approach, which uses available demographic as well as environmental data

  2. CLIMATE CHANGE IN KYIV: WAYS TO CONTERACT AND MINIMIZE NEGATIVE EFFECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Bazylevych

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available ital issues of climate change in Kyiv are studied with elucidation of the need for developing a comprehensive research technique to analyse and assess a cumulative impact of the process. The study exposes anthropogenic and natural factors responsible for climate formation in Kyiv and the climatic changes. With an account for recent international experience the proposals are formulated how to make use of contemporary administrative, economic, legal and regulatory levers to forestall climatic changes in the capital and cope with the negative environmental aftermath.

  3. Dislocated interests and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Steven J.; Diffenbaugh, Noah

    2016-06-01

    The predicted effects of climate change on surface temperatures are now emergent and quantifiable. The recent letter by Hansen and Sato (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 034009) adds to a growing number of studies showing that warming over the past four decades has shifted the distribution of temperatures higher almost everywhere, with the largest relative effects on summer temperatures in developing regions such as Africa, South America, southeast Asia, and the Middle East (e.g., Diffenbaugh and Scherer 2011 Clim. Change 107 615–24 Anderson 2011 Clim. Change 108 581; Mahlstein et al 2012 Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L21711). Hansen and Sato emphasize that although these regions are warming disproportionately, their role in causing climate change—measured by cumulative historical CO2 emissions produced—is small compared to the US and Europe, where the relative change in temperatures has been less. This spatial and temporal mismatch of climate change impacts and the burning of fossil fuels is a critical dislocation of interests that, as the authors note, has ‘substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.’ Here, we place Hansen and Sato’s ‘national responsibilities’ into a broader conceptual framework of problematically dislocated interests, and briefly discuss the related challenges for global climate mitigation efforts.

  4. Direct and indirect effects of climate change on the risk of infection by water-transmitted pathogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterk, Ankie; Schijven, Jack; de Nijs, Ton; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria

    2013-11-19

    Climate change is likely to affect the infectious disease burden from exposure to pathogens in water used for drinking and recreation. Effective intervention measures require quantification of impacts of climate change on the distribution of pathogens in the environment and their potential effects on human health. Objectives of this systematic review were to summarize current knowledge available to estimate how climate change may directly and indirectly affect infection risks due to Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, norovirus, and Vibrio. Secondary objectives were to prioritize natural processes and interactions that are susceptible to climate change and to identify knowledge gaps. Search strategies were determined based on a conceptual model and scenarios with the main emphasis on The Netherlands. The literature search resulted in a large quantity of publications on climate variables affecting pathogen input and behavior in aquatic environments. However, not all processes and pathogens are evenly covered by the literature, and in many cases, the direction of change is still unclear. To make useful predictions of climate change, it is necessary to combine both negative and positive effects. This review provides an overview of the most important effects of climate change on human health and shows the importance of QMRA to quantify the net effects. PMID:24125400

  5. Africa and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toulmin, Camilla; Huq, Saleemul

    2006-10-15

    Remember the scenes from New Orleans of flooded streets and scavenging people? One year on and little progress is evident in achieving the step-change needed in controlling greenhouse gases. Hurricane Katrina showed only too vividly the massive power of natural forces combined with inadequate preparation. The flood waters washed away and exposed fully the lack of planning and low priority given to securing life and livelihoods, especially of the more vulnerable groups in the community. If this is what a whirlwind can bring in the southern USA, what might we reap in further storms and droughts tomorrow in poorer parts of the world? New research findings point to the likelihood of larger, faster and more substantial changes to our climate system. The African continent is particularly vulnerable to adverse changes in climate, the evidence for which is becoming more and more stark.

  6. Temperate Mountain Forest Biodiversity under Climate Change: Compensating Negative Effects by Increasing Structural Complexity

    OpenAIRE

    Veronika Braunisch; Joy Coppes; Raphaël Arlettaz; Rudi Suchant; Florian Zellweger; Kurt Bollmann

    2014-01-01

    Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or...

  7. Assessing agriculture vulnerabilities for the design of effective measures for adaptation to climate change (AVEMAC project)

    OpenAIRE

    DONATELLI Marcello; DUVEILLER BOGDAN GRÉGORY HENRY E; Fumagalli, Davide; SRIVASTAVA AMIT KUMAR; ZUCCHINI Antonio; FASBENDER DOMINIQUE; ANGILERI Vincenzo; Kay, Simon; JUSKEVICIUS Valentinas; Toth, Tibor; Haastrup, Palle; M'BAREK Robert; ESPINOSA GODED MARIA; CIAIAN PAVEL

    2012-01-01

    This final report of the AVEMAC study presents an assessment of the potential vulnerability of European agriculture to changing climatic conditions in the coming decades. The analysis is based on weather data generated from two contrasting realizations of the A1B emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the time horizons 2020 and 2030. These two realizations (obtained from two different general circulation models, downscaled using regional climate...

  8. The potential effects of climate change on the status of Seychelles frogs (Anura: Sooglossidae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Gerlach

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available The status of the Seychelles frogs of the family Sooglossidae was investigated, using monitoring data from 1993-2010, climate data from 1998-2010 and studies of populations and local climate effects. Climate monitoring at each plot covered rainfall and temperature, with leaf wetness and soil moisture being monitored additionally at one site. Analysis of the data and ecological modelling of the distribution identify geographical patterns in climate which explain the present distribution of the different sooglossid species. In addition it identifies a drying trend in the first quarter of the year which corresponds to frog population declines in mid-altitude forests. This is interpreted as evidence of an ongoing deterioration in the suitability of habitats for the frogs, with declines recorded in areas of marginal suitability. By extension it is assumed that currently optimal frog habitat is also undergoing a decline in suitability, due to early year decreases in moisture. Projected changes in climate were used to predict changes in ranges of the sooglossids over the next 90 years. This predicts significant declines, with the possible extinction of the palm frog Sooglossus pipilodryas by 2100. Accordingly all four sooglossid species should be categorised as Endangered, rather than their current status of Vulnerable. Captive assurance colonies have not been successfully established to date. Captive groups have been maintained with a high degree of success but breeding has not been recorded so far. Further work needed for the conservation of the frogs is outlined: development of a reliable method of monitoring the cryptic S. thomasseti and development of captive breeding techniques.

  9. Climate change and human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warren, John A; Berner, James E; Curtis, Tine

    2005-01-01

    In northern regions, climate change can include changes in precipitation magnitude and frequency, reductions in sea ice extent and thickness, and climate warming and cooling. These changes can increase the frequency and severity of storms, flooding, or erosion; other changes may include drought o...... communities can begin to develop a response to climate change. With this information, planners, engineers, health care professionals and governments can begin to develop approaches to address the challenges related to climate change....

  10. Animal Agriculture in a Changing Climate Online Course: An Effective Tool for Creating Extension Competency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitefield, Elizabeth; Schmidt, David; Witt-Swanson, Lindsay; Smith, David; Pronto, Jennifer; Knox, Pam; Powers, Crystal

    2016-01-01

    There is a need to create competency among Extension professionals on the topic of climate change adaptation and mitigation in animal agriculture. The Animal Agriculture in a Changing Climate online course provides an easily accessible, user-friendly, free, and interactive experience for learning science-based information on a national and…

  11. Evaluating the combined effects of climate and land-use change on tree species distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia-Valdes, Raul; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Zavala, Miguel A.;

    2015-01-01

    Summary: A large proportion of the world's biodiversity is reportedly threatened by habitat loss and climate change. However, there are few studies that investigate the interaction between these two threats using empirical data. Here, we investigate interactions between climate change and land-us...

  12. Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karine Princé

    Full Text Available Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform

  13. Effects of climate variability and functional changes on the interannual variation of the carbon balance in a temperate deciduous forest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Jian; van der Linden, Leon; Lasslop, G.;

    2012-01-01

    scale, direct climatic variability and changes in ecosystem functional properties regulated the IAV of the carbon balance at this site. Correlation analysis showed that the sensitivity of carbon fluxes to climatic variability was significantly higher at shorter than at longer time scales and changed...... seasonally. Ecosystem response anomalies implied that changes in the distribution of climate anomalies during the vegetation period will have stronger impacts on future ecosystem carbon balances than changes in average climate. We improved a published modelling approach which distinguishes the direct...... climatic effects from changes in ecosystem functioning (Richardson et al., 2007) by employing the semi empirical model published by Lasslop et al. (2010b). Fitting the model in short moving windows enabled large flexibility to adjust the parameters to the seasonal course of the ecosystem functional state...

  14. Exploring the Multifaceted Topic of Climate Change in Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

    2015-12-01

    As the effects of climate change become more profound, climate literacy becomes increasingly important. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) responds to this need through the publication of Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate. Both publications incorporate the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the USGCRP's Third National Climate Assessment. Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive, multidisciplinary information related to various topics. Additionally, each chapter closes with a For Further Exploration essay, which addresses specific topics that complement a chapter concept. Web Resources, which encourage additional exploration of chapter content, and Scientific Literature, from which chapter content was derived can also be found at the conclusion of each chapter. Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics, including the scientific principles that govern Earth's climate system and basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate the system. Released in fall 2015, Living With Our Changing Climate takes a more narrow approach and investigates human and ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change, the role of energy choices in affecting climate, actions humans can take through adaption, mitigation, and policy to lessen vulnerabilities, and psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial. While Living With Our Changing Climate is intended for programs looking to add a climate element into their curriculum, Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course. In a 2015 survey of California University of Pennsylvania undergraduate students using Our Changing Climate, 82% found it comfortable to read and utilized its interactive components and resources. Both ebooks illuminate the multidisciplinary aspect of climate change, providing the opportunity for a more sustainable future.

  15. Weather it's Climate Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostrom, A.; Lashof, D.

    2004-12-01

    For almost two decades both national polls and in-depth studies of global warming perceptions have shown that people commonly conflate weather and global climate change. Not only are current weather events such as anecdotal heat waves, droughts or cold spells treated as evidence for or against global warming, but weather changes such as warmer weather and increased storm intensity and frequency are the consequences most likely to come to mind. Distinguishing weather from climate remains a challenge for many. This weather 'framing' of global warming may inhibit behavioral and policy change in several ways. Weather is understood as natural, on an immense scale that makes controlling it difficult to conceive. Further, these attributes contribute to perceptions that global warming, like weather, is uncontrollable. This talk presents an analysis of data from public opinion polls, focus groups, and cognitive studies regarding people's mental models of and 'frames' for global warming and climate change, and the role weather plays in these. This research suggests that priming people with a model of global warming as being caused by a "thickening blanket of carbon dioxide" that "traps heat" in the atmosphere solves some of these communications problems and makes it more likely that people will support policies to address global warming.

  16. Climate change trend and its effects on reference evapotranspiration at Linhe Station, Hetao Irrigation District

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu-ming WANG

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Linhe National Meteorological Station, a representative weather station in the Hetao Irrigation District of China, was selected as the research site for the present study. Changes in climatic variables and reference evapotranspiration (ET0 (estimated by the Penman-Monteith method were detected using Mann-Kendall tests and Sen’s slope estimator, respectively. The authors analyzed the relationship between the change and each climatic variable’s change. From 1954 to 2012, the air temperature showed a significant increasing trend, whereas relative humidity and wind speed decreased dramatically. These changes resulted in a slight increase in . The radiative component of total increased from 50% to 57%, indicating that this component made a greater contribution to the increase in total than the aerodynamic component, especially during the crop growing season (from April to October. The sensitivity analysis showed that in Hetao is most sensitive to mean daily air temperature (11.8%, followed by wind speed (−7.3% and relative humidity (4.8%. Changes in sunshine duration had only a minor effect on over the past 59 years.

  17. The potential effects of global climate change on the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A number of scenarios were specified by the United States Environmental Protection Agency to help identify the sensitivities of natural and manmade systems to climate change. Regional output from three general circulation models were used: the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), and Oregon State University (OSU). Major findings included the following. For forests, the range of trees may be reduced, changes in forest composition are likely and may begin in 30-80 years, and other factors will also influence forest health. For biodiversity, extinction of species could increase, impacts on fisheries could vary, and effects on migratory birds would depend on impacts from habitats. Sea level rise is expected to have several impacts: expensive protection of developed areas may be necessary; most coastal wetlands would be lost; and estuaries may enlarge and become more saline. In agriculture, yields may be reduced in some areas and increase in others. Productivity may shift northward, exports may be reduced, farmers would likely have to change many of their practices, ranges of agricultural pests may extend northward, and shifts in agriculture may harm the environment in some areas. For water resources, total impacts could not be determined, although water quality in many basins would change and water use conflicts might increase. National electricity demand would rise. Climate change could increase air pollution, especially smog. Summer human mortality could increase while winter mortality could decrease. Regional impacts are summarized. 17 figs., 3 tabs

  18. Ungulate herbivory modifies the effects of climate change on mountain forests

    OpenAIRE

    Didion, M.P.; Kupferschmid, A.D.; Wolf, A.; Bugmann, H.

    2011-01-01

    Recent temperature observations suggest a general warming trend that may be causing the range of tree species to shift to higher latitudes and altitudes. Since biotic interactions such as herbivory can change tree species composition, it is important to understand their contribution to vegetation changes triggered by climate change. To investigate the response of forests to climate change and herbivory by wild ungulates, we used the forest gap model ForClim v2.9.6 and simulated forest develop...

  19. Final report: The effect of climate change on the Norwegian Energy System towards 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seljom, P.; Rosenberg, E.; Fidje, A.; Meir, M.; Haugen, J.E.; Jarlseth, T.

    2010-08-15

    The climate impact on the renewable resources, end use demand, and on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050 is identified. Climate change will reduce the heat demand, increase the cooling demand, result in no impact on the wind power potential, and increase the hydro power potential. The total impact is reduced energy system costs, and lower Norwegian electricity prices. The net electricity export will increase, and national investments in new renewable power production like offshore wind- , tidal- and wave power will decrease due to climate change. Additionally, the electricity consumption in the residential and in the commercial sector will decrease, and climate change will lead to an earlier profitable implementation of electric based vehicles in Norway. Despite great uncertainties in the future climate, various future emission scenarios are compatible regarding the Norwegian climate impact, although the magnitude of the impact varies. (Author)

  20. The Effects of climatic change in the Netherlands, 2012; Effecten van klimaatverandering in Nederland, 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Minnen, J.; Ligtvoet, W. (eds.)

    2012-07-15

    This study is an update of the 2005 study: how is the situation at present with respect to the climate in the Netherlands, which effects are now more or less perceptible, are there new insights into the opportunities and risks of climate change, and to what extent are these future opportunities and risks embedded in the various policy issues? [Dutch] Deze studie is een actualisering van de studie uit 2005: hoe is het op dit moment gesteld met de klimaatverandering in Nederland, welke effecten daarvan zijn nu meer of minder waarneembaar, zijn er nieuwe inzichten in de kansen en risico's van klimaatverandering, en in hoeverre zijn deze toekomstige kansen en risico's in de verschillende beleidsdossiers verankerd?.

  1. Spatial Heterogeneity of Climate Change Effects on Dominant Height of Larch Plantations in Northern and Northeastern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Zang

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Determining the response of dominant height growth to climate change is important for understanding adaption strategies. Based on 550 permanent plots from a national forest inventory and climate data across seven provinces and three climate zones, we developed a climate-sensitive dominant height growth model under a mixed-effects model framework. The mean temperature of the wettest quarter and precipitation of the wettest month were found to be statistically significant explanatory variables that markedly improved model performance. Generally, future climate change had a positive effect on stand dominant height in northern and northeastern China, but the effect showed high spatial variability linked to local climatic conditions. The range in dominant height difference between the current climate and three future BC-RCP scenarios would change from −0.61 m to 1.75 m (−6.9% to 13.5% during the period 2041–2060 and from −1.17 m to 3.28 m (−9.1% to 41.0% during the period 2061–2080 across provinces. The impacts of climate change on stand dominant height decreased as stand age increased. Forests in cold and warm temperate zones had a smaller decrease in dominant height, owing to climate change, compared with those in the mid temperate zone. Overall, future climate change could impact dominant height growth in northern and northeastern China. As spatial heterogeneity of climate change affects dominant height growth, locally specific mitigation measures should be considered in forest management.

  2. Climate change and public health. Effects and a dialogue with interested people

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In recent decades, it has become increasingly clear that the global climate is becoming warmer and that regional climates are changing. This report summarizes the results of an integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change and adaptation options in the Netherlands carried out between July 2000 and July 2001 within the framework of the Dutch National Research Program on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP-2). The project's main aims were: - to provide an overview of scientific insights, expert judgements and stakeholders' perceptions of current and future impacts (positive and negative) of climate change for several economic sectors, human health, and natural systems in the Netherlands, considering various cross-sectoral interactions, - to develop a set of adaptation options for these sectors through a participatory process with the main stakeholders, - to perform an integrated assessment of cross-sectoral interactions of climate change impacts and adaptation options. Climate change impacts and adaptation options have been investigated for several important economic sectors (including agriculture, forestry, fisheries, industry, energy, transport, insurance and recreation and tourism), human health and natural systems (including soils, water and biodiversity issues).The results of this study are based on literature survey, a dialogue with experts and stakeholders. We are convinced that the report represents the most essential and relevant aspects of the impacts and adaptation options for climate change in the Netherlands, given the scenario setting of this study, the state of the art of current scientific knowledge, and today's expert and stakeholders' perceptions of the issues at stake. 3 refs

  3. The potential effects of climate change on the status of Seychelles frogs (Anura: Sooglossidae)

    OpenAIRE

    Gerlach, J.

    2011-01-01

    The status of the Seychelles frogs of the family Sooglossidae was investigated, using monitoring data from 1993-2010, climate data from 1998-2010 and studies of populations and local climate effects. Climate monitoring at each plot covered rainfall and temperature, with leaf wetness and soil moisture being monitored additionally at one site. Analysis of the data and ecological modelling of the distribution identify geographical patterns in climate which explain the present distribution of t...

  4. Predicting climate change effects on surface soil organic carbon of Louisiana, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Biao; Xu, Yi Jun

    2014-10-01

    This study aimed to assess the degree of potential temperature and precipitation change as predicted by the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3) climate model for Louisiana, and to investigate the effects of potential climate change on surface soil organic carbon (SOC) across Louisiana using the Rothamsted Carbon Model (RothC) and GIS techniques at the watershed scale. Climate data sets at a grid cell of 0.5° × 0.5° for the entire state of Louisiana were collected from the HadCM3 model output for three climate change scenarios: B2, A2, and A1F1, that represent low, higher, and even higher greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. Geo-referenced datasets including USDA-NRCS Soil Geographic Database (STATSGO), USGS Land Cover Dataset (NLCD), and the Louisiana watershed boundary data were gathered for SOC calculation at the watershed scale. A soil carbon turnover model, RothC, was used to simulate monthly changes in SOC from 2001 to 2100 under the projected temperature and precipitation changes. The simulated SOC changes in 253 watersheds from three time periods, 2001-2010, 2041-2050, and 2091-2100, were tested for the influence of the land covers and emissions scenarios using SAS PROC GLIMMIX and PDMIX800 macro to separate Tukey-Kramer (p forest soils will decrease from 33.0 t/ha in 2001 to 26.9, 28.4, and 29.2 t/ha in 2100, respectively; the mean SOC of Louisiana cropland soils will decrease from 44.4 t/ha in 2001 to 36.3, 38.4, and 39.6 t/ha in 2100, respectively; the mean SOC of Louisiana grassland soils will change from 30.7 t/ha in 2001 to 25.4, 26.6, and 27.0 t/ha in 2100, respectively. Annual SOC changes will be significantly different among the land cover classes including evergreen forest, mixed forest, deciduous forest, small grains, row crops, and pasture/hay (p < 0.0001), emissions scenarios (p < 0.0001), and their interactions (p < 0.0001). PMID:24917151

  5. Direct and indirect effects of climate change on a prairie plant community.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter B Adler

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Climate change directly affects species by altering their physical environment and indirectly affects species by altering interspecific interactions such as predation and competition. Recent studies have shown that the indirect effects of climate change may amplify or counteract the direct effects. However, little is known about the the relative strength of direct and indirect effects or their potential to impact population persistence. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We studied the effects of altered precipitation and interspecific interactions on the low-density tiller growth rates and biomass production of three perennial grass species in a Kansas, USA mixed prairie. We transplanted plugs of each species into local neighborhoods of heterospecific competitors and then exposed the plugs to a factorial manipulation of growing season precipitation and neighbor removal. Precipitation treatments had significant direct effects on two of the three species. Interspecific competition also had strong effects, reducing low-density tiller growth rates and aboveground biomass production for all three species. In fact, in the presence of competitors, (log tiller growth rates were close to or below zero for all three species. However, we found no convincing evidence that per capita competitive effects changed with precipitation, as shown by a lack of significant precipitation x competition interactions. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We found little evidence that altered precipitation will influence per capita competitive effects. However, based on species' very low growth rates in the presence of competitors in some precipitation treatments, interspecific interactions appear strong enough to affect the balance between population persistence and local extinction. Therefore, ecological forecasting models should include the effect of interspecific interactions on population growth, even if such interaction coefficients are treated as constants.

  6. Global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the last decade marked changes of climatic factors have been observed, such as increases in average global earth temperatures, the amount of precipitation and the number of extreme weather events. Green house gases influence the energy flow in the atmosphere by absorbing infra-red radiation. An overview of the Austrian greenhouse gas emissions is given, including statistical data and their major sources. In 1999 the emissions of all six Kyoto greenhouse gases ( CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6) amounted to 79.2 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents . A comparison between the EC Members states is also presented. Finally the climate change strategy prepared by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management together with other ministries and the federal provinces is discussed, which main aim is to lead to an annual emission reduction of 16 million tonnes of CO2. Figs. 2, Tables 1. (nevyjel)

  7. The Conundrum of Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization and the Urban Heat Island Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.

    2011-01-01

    The twenty-first century is the first urban century according to the United Nations Development Program. The focus on cities reflects awareness of the growing percentage of the world's population that lives in urban areas. In 2000, approximately 3 billion people representing about 40% of the global population resided in urban areas. The United Nations estimates that by 2025, 60% of the world s population will live in urban areas. As a consequence, the number of megacities (those cities with populations of 10 million inhabitants or more) will increase by 100 by 2025. Thus, there is a critical need to understand the spatial growth of urban areas and what the impacts are on the environment. Moreover, there is a critical need to assess how under global climate change, cities will affect the local, regional, and even global climate. As urban areas increase in size, it is anticipated there will be a concomitant growth of the Urban Heat Island effect (UHI), and the attributes that are related to its spatial and temporal dynamics. Therefore, how climate change, including the dynamics of the UHI, will affect the urban environment, must be explored to help mitigate potential impacts on the environment (e.g., air quality, heat stress, vectorborne disease) and on human health and well being, to develop adaptation schemes to cope with these impacts.

  8. Effects of climate and land use changes on groundwater resources in coastal aquifers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priyantha Ranjan, S; Kazama, So; Sawamoto, Masaki

    2006-07-01

    To estimate the freshwater loss in coastal aquifers due to salinisation, a numerical model based on the sharp interface assumption has been introduced. The developed methodology will be useful in areas where limited hydrological data are available. This model will elaborate on the changes in fresh groundwater loss with respect to climate change, land use pattern and hydrologic soil condition. The aridity index has been introduced to represent the variations in precipitation and temperature. The interesting finding is that the deforestation leads to increase groundwater recharge in arid areas, because deforestation leads to reduce evapotranspiration even though it favors runoff. The combined climate and land use scenarios show that when the aridity index is less than 60, the agricultural lands give higher groundwater recharge than other land use patterns for all hydrologic soil conditions. The calculated recharge was then used to estimate the freshwater-saltwater interface and percentage of freshwater loss due to salinity intrusion. We found that in arid areas, the fresh groundwater loss increases as the percentage of forest cover increases. The combined effects of deforestation and aridity index on fresh groundwater loss show that deforestation causes an increase in the recharge and existing fresh groundwater resource in areas having low precipitation and high temperature (arid climates). PMID:16305816

  9. Updating soil CO2 emission experiments to assess climate change effects and extracellular soil respiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal Vazquez, Eva; Paz Ferreiro, Jorge

    2014-05-01

    Experimental work is an essential component in training future soil scientists. Soil CO2 emission is a key issue because of the potential impacts of this process on the greenhouse effect. The amount of organic carbon stored in soils worldwide is about 1600 gigatons (Gt) compared to 750 Gt in the atmosphere mostly in the form of CO2. Thus, if soil respiration increased slightly so that just 10% of the soil carbon pool was converted to CO2, atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere could increase by one-fifth. General circulation model predictions indicate atmosphere warming between 2 and 5°C (IPCC 2007) and precipitation changes ranging from about -15 to +30%. Traditionally, release of CO2 was thought to occur only in an intracellular environment; however, recently CO2 emissions have been in irradiated soil, in the absence of microorganisms (Maire et al., 2013). Moreover, soil plays a role in the stabilization of respiration enzymes promoting CO2 release after microorganism death. Here, we propose to improve CO2 emission experiments commonly used in soil biology to investigate: 1) effects of climatic factors on soil CO2 emissions, and 2) rates of extracellular respiration in soils and how these rates are affected by environmental factors. Experiment designed to assess the effect of climate change can be conducted either in field conditions under different ecosystems (forest, grassland, cropland) or in a greenhouse using simple soil chambers. The interactions of climate change in CO2 emissions are investigated using climate-manipulation experiment that can be adapted to field or greenhouse conditions (e.g. Mc Daniel et al., 2013). The experimental design includes a control plot (without soil temperature and rain manipulation) a warming treatment as well as wetting and/or drying treatments. Plots are warmed to the target temperature by procedures such as infrared heaters (field) or radiant cable (greenhouse). To analyze extracellular respiration, rates of CO2

  10. Effects of climate change on seashores; Effekter av klimaendringer for havstrand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Follestad, Arne; Evju, Marianne; Oedegaard, Frode

    2011-04-15

    Projected climate changes, particularly increased sea level, but also increased winter temperatures, increased precipitation and a prolonged growth period, are expected to have considerable effects in some nature types (habitats) in coastal areas in Norway. Seashores, being located closely to the sea, are strongly influenced by salt, and include a variety of nature types, e.g. sand dunes, drift lines, sea meadows and shores on different substrate types, etc. Several seashore nature types are particularly important habitats for communities of plants and insects, as well as breeding areas and stop over places during migration for birds. Accordingly the biological diversity connected to these nature types is great, and they also hold a lot of red listed species. It is difficult to predict the effect of various climatic changes (changes in precipitation, temperature, wind and sea level) on seashores, partly because different factors may interact to intensify or cancel each other out. Seashores are naturally dynamic systems, and local environmental conditions, such as substrate, topography, currents, and exposure, will affect the occurrence and change in area of different nature types. This complicates a general assessment of effects of sea level rise on seashore nature types. It is clear, however, that the effects of sea level rise will depend on the state of inward areas; where inward areas are developed, the available areas for natural dynamics to occur will be reduced. Seashore areas are already exposed to impacts, such as agriculture, infrastructure, human traffic, pollution and invading species. Such impacts may reduce area or change the state of the habitats, and climate change will interact with these factors to affect seashore habitats. Reduction of negative effects of human imposed factors will potentially increase the ability for adaptation of species and ecosystems to climate change. Many of the rare, red listed vascular plants on seashores are southern

  11. On climate change and economic growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The economic impact of climate change is usually measured as the extent to which the climate of a given period affects social welfare in that period. This static approach ignores the dynamic effects through which climate change may affect economic growth and hence future welfare. In this paper we take a closer look at these dynamic effects, in particular saving and capital accumulation. With a constant savings rate, a lower output due to climate change will lead to a proportionate reduction in investment which in turn will depress future production (capital accumulation effect) and, in almost all cases, future consumption per capita. If the savings rate is endogenous, forward looking agents would change their savings behavior to accommodate the impact of future climate change. This suppresses growth prospects in absolute and per capita terms (savings effect). In an endogenous growth context, these two effects may be exacerbated through changes in labour productivity and the rate of technical progress. Simulations using a simple climate-economy model suggest that the capital accumulation effect is important, especially if technological change is endogenous, and may be larger than the direct impact of climate change. The savings effect is less pronounced. The dynamic effects are more important, relative to the direct effects, if climate change impacts are moderate overall. This suggests that they are more of a concern in developed countries, which are believed to be less vulnerable to climate change. The magnitude of dynamic effects is not sensitive to the choice of discount rate

  12. Effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in the Nenjiang River Basin, Northeast China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Q. Dong

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The Nenjiang River Basin (NRB is an important grain-production region with abundant wetlands in Northeast China. Climate change and anthropogenic activities have dramatically altered the spatial and temporal distribution of regional stream discharge and water resources, which poses a serious threat to wetland ecosystems and sustainable agriculture. In this study, we analyzed 55-yr (1956–2010 rainfall and runoff patterns in the river basin to quantitatively evaluate the impact of human activities on regional hydrology. The long-term hydrologic series were divided into two periods: period I (1956–1974, during which minimum land use change occurred, and period II (1975–2010, during which land use change intensified. Kendall's rank correlation test, non-parametric Pettitt test and precipitation-runoff double cumulative curve (DCC methods were utilized to identify the trends and thresholds of the annual runoff in the upstream, midstream, and downstream basin areas. Our results showed that the runoff in the NRB has continuously declined in the past 55 yr, and that the effects of climate change and human activities on the runoff reduction varied in the upstream, midstream and downstream area over different time scales. For the entire study period, climate change has been the dominant factor, accounting for 69.6–80.3% of the reduction in the total basin runoff. However, the impact of human activities has been increasing from 19.7% during the 1950s–1970s to 30.4% in the present time. Spatially, the runoff reduction became higher from the upstream to the downstream areas, revealing an increasing threat of water availability to the large wetland ecosystem in the lower river basin. Furthermore, the sustainable development of irrigated agriculture in the NRB will be a threat to the survival of the wetlands.

  13. Responding to the Consequences of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrand, Peter H.

    2011-01-01

    The talk addresses the scientific consensus concerning climate change, and outlines the many paths that are open to mitigate climate change and its effects on human activities. Diverse aspects of the changing water cycle on Earth are used to illustrate the reality climate change. These include melting snowpack, glaciers, and sea ice; changes in runoff; rising sea level; moving ecosystems, an more. Human forcing of climate change is then explained, including: greenhouse gasses, atmospheric aerosols, and changes in land use. Natural forcing effects are briefly discussed, including volcanoes and changes in the solar cycle. Returning to Earth's water cycle, the effects of climate-induced changes in water resources is presented. Examples include wildfires, floods and droughts, changes in the production and availability of food, and human social reactions to these effects. The lk then passes to a discussion of common human reactions to these forecasts of climate change effects, with a summary of recent research on the subject, plus several recent historical examples of large-scale changes in human behavior that affect the climate and ecosystems. Finally, in the face for needed action on climate, the many options for mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects are presented, with examples of the ability to take affordable, and profitable action at most all levels, from the local, through national.

  14. Predicting Plant Diversity Patterns in Madagascar: Understanding the Effects of Climate and Land Cover Change in a Biodiversity Hotspot

    OpenAIRE

    Brown, Kerry A.; Parks, Katherine E; Bethell, Colin; Johnson, Steig E; Mulligan, Mark

    2015-01-01

    Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence r...

  15. Predicting plant diversity patterns in madagascar:Understanding the effects of climate and land cover change in a biodiversity hotspot

    OpenAIRE

    Brown, Kerry A.; Parks, Katherine E; Bethell, Colin A.; Johnson, Steig E; Mulligan, Mark

    2015-01-01

    Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence r...

  16. Predicting plant diversity patterns in Madagascar: understanding the effects of climate and land cover change in a biodiversity hotspot

    OpenAIRE

    Kumar, Lalit; Brown, Kerry A.; Parks, Katherine E; Bethell, Colin A.; Johnson, Steig E; Mulligan, Mark

    2015-01-01

    Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence r...

  17. Confronting Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mintzer, Irving M.

    1992-06-01

    This book, which was published in time for the Earth Summit in Brazil in June 1992, is likely to make a huge impact on the political and economic agendas of international policy makers. It summarizes the scientific findings of Working Group I of the IPCC in the first part of the book. While acknowledging the uncertainties in subsequent chapters, it challenges and expands upon the existing views on how we should tackle the problems of climate change.

  18. Climate change and forest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Studies of the earth's present forms of vegetation show that the climate change to be expected from double the current greenhouse gas concentrations would have a fundamental impact on forest structures. This problem can be confronted in two ways: Either by adusting long-term silvicultural planning according to predictions derived from vegetation model calculations; or by managing forests in the manner of a flexible response strategy until changes actually occur. An evaluation of representative surveys of forests in Bavaria has shown that contrary to widerspread regions of Bavaria. This suggests that in the event of a warning by 1 to 2 C, assuming all other climate parameters to remain roughly constant, the beech could play a major role in the forest structure in large parts of Bavaria. The data material also shows that in defiance of all pessimistic forecasts the growth of beech has markedly improved over the past decade. To date the only explanations offered for this phenomenon are growth-stimulating changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere, specifically the rise in carbon dioxide; and the enhanced nitrogen deposition in the soil. This example shows that the immense number of unpredictable influences prohibit long-term forecasts on forest development. Now if the forest is made up of a large number of tree species whose most favoured climatic ranges are known, then it is possible to meet climate changes with early silvicultural interventions and so preclude forest destruction. Scientifically founded silviculature can thus become an important support for the stability of our forests. (orig.)

  19. Outchasing climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    Pygmy possums, monarch butterflies, spoon-billed sandpipers, and a number of trees and other plants could be among the species unable to migrate fast enough to new habitat in the face of potential global climate changes, according to an August 30 report by the Switzerland-based World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and the U.S. based Clean-Air-Cool Planet (CACP), two conservation organizations.

  20. Hurricane Katrina and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serious and widely reported scientific analyses and assessments have called attention to climate changes and to the additional risks the world now faces. Through science has not yet provided proof positive of a connection between the increased intensity of extreme weather events and climate change, there can be no valid reason for failing to hedge the risk with preventive action. The catastrophe that struck New Orleans had can been predicted since the 1990s. The 2050 Coast Plan for reducing the vulnerability of the Louisiana coast and preventing hurricane disasters had been approved by the local authorities but not the federal government. Partly because of its cost, it was never carried into effect

  1. Science Teachers' Perspectives about Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Vaille

    2012-01-01

    Climate change and its effects are likely to present challenging problems for future generations of young people. It is important for Australian students to understand the mechanisms and consequences of climate change. If students are to develop a sophisticated understanding, then science teachers need to be well-informed about climate change…

  2. Contributions of Psychology to Limiting Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Paul C.

    2011-01-01

    Psychology can make a significant contribution to limiting the magnitude of climate change by improving understanding of human behaviors that drive climate change and human reactions to climate-related technologies and policies, and by turning that understanding into effective interventions. This article develops a framework for psychological…

  3. EU focus on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faced with the mounting evidence of the harmful effects of climate change, the European Union is convinced that the world must take urgent action to tackle the problem. That is why the EU has been at the forefront of international efforts to deal with climate change for well over a decade. The EU is convinced that the status quo is simply not an option. Without urgent, concerted action, the problem will continue to get worse with potentially disastrous consequences. That is why the European Union has consistently taken the lead in international moves to tackle climate change and why it will continue to develop this strategy for as long as it takes to guarantee a world for ourselves and our children where everyone can grow, breathe and live in safety

  4. Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Hydrological Regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dam, Jan C.

    2003-10-01

    Water is going to be one of the key, if not the most critical, environmental issues in the twenty-first century because of the escalation in socio-economic pressures on the environment in general. Any future climate change or climate variability will only accentuate such pressures. This volume initially follows the perspective of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to infer possible changes in hydrological regimes and water quality based on the outputs from various scenarios of General Circulation Models (GCMs). In subsequent chapters, the possible effects of climate change on the hydrology of each of the continents is examined. The book concludes with an overview of hydrological models for use in the evaluation of the impacts of climate change. It will provide a valuable guide for environmental planners and policy-makers, and will also be of use to all students and researchers interested in the possible effects of climate change.

  5. AN EVALUATION OF FARMERS’ PERCEPTIONS OF AND ADAPTATION TO THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN KENYA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hilary K. Ndambiri

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The study was carried out to evaluate how farmers in Kyuso District have perceived and adapted to climate change. Data was collected from 246 farmers from six locations sampled out through a multistage and simple random sampling procedure. The Heckman probit model was fitted to the data to avoid sample selection bias since not every farmer who may perceive climate change responds by adapting. The analysis revealed that 94% of farmers in Kyuso District had a perception that climate was changing and as a result, 85% of these farmers had responded by adapting. In this regard, age of the household head, gender, education, farm experience, household size, distance to the nearest market, access to irrigation water, local agro-ecology, on and off farm income, access to information on climate change through extension services, access to credit, changes in temperature and precipitation were found to have significant influence on the probability of farmers to perceive and/or adapt to climate change. With the level of perception to climate change being more than that of adaptation, the study suggests that more policy efforts should be geared towards helping farmers to adapt to climate change

  6. Climate change and human health

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changes in the earth's climate, stemming from the greenhouse effect, are highly likely to damage human health. As well as the disruptions to food and fresh water supplies, there is the prospect of major diseases flourishing in warmer conditions, in addition the decrease in the ozone layer is causing an increased incidence of skin cancer

  7. Economic Effects of Climate Change on Scarcity Costs and Residential Water Prices in Cyprus

    OpenAIRE

    Theodoros Zachariadis

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an assessment of the cost of water scarcity in Cyprus, today and in the next 20 years, taking into account the effect of projected climate change in the region. It focuses on the residential sector, accounting also for tourism and industry. Using a simple demand function, total scarcity costs in Cyprus are computed for the period 2010–2030, and three scenarios of future water demand are presented. The central estimate shows that the present value of total costs due to wate...

  8. Modelling climate change effects on a Dutch coastal groundwater system using airborne Electro Magnetic measurements

    OpenAIRE

    M. Faneca Sànchez; J. L. Gunnink; E. S. van Baaren; Oude Essink, G.H.P.; B. Siemon; E. Auken; W. Elderhorst; de Louw, P.G.B.

    2012-01-01

    The forecast of climate change effects on the groundwater system in coastal areas is of key importance for policy makers. The Dutch water system has been deeply studied because of its complex system of low-lying areas, dunes, land won to the sea and dikes, but nowadays large efforts are still being done to find out the best techniques to describe complex fresh-brackish-saline groundwater dynamic systems. In this article, we describe a methodology consisting of high-resolution airborne Electro...

  9. Immediate challenge of combating climate change: Effective implementation of energy efficiency policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morvaj, Zoran; Bukarica, Vesna

    2010-09-15

    Energy efficiency is the most readily available, rapid and cost-effective way to achieve desired greenhouse gases reductions. Therefore, it is the focus of energy and climate change policies world wide. The results of these policies are still missing in the desired extent, even in the EU, which has the most advanced energy efficiency policy. The main reason behind this policy failure is a complete lack of focus on implementing capacities that would ensure full policy uptake. Embracing full-scale energy management systems in public and business sectors and mobilisation of and cooperation between all stakeholders are the way towards higher efficiency.

  10. Climate change: where to now?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Full text: The potential for human impact on global climate arose out of an understanding developed in the 19th century of the physical conditions influencing global temperatures. In the past three decades, observations and improved understanding of climate processes have led to the conclusions that the planet has warmed, this warming has been primarily due to increases of atmospheric greenhouse gases and that this has been due to human activities. But our knowledge is incomplete. The management of the risks associated with future climate change demands improvement of the knowledge base. Specific areas for improvement include the: role of aerosols in the amelioration or otherwise of warming trends; potential instability of systems, e.g. the deglaciation of Greenland that could lead to rapid destabilisation of climate; response of biological systems to climate change, their phrenology, behaviour, genetics and dispersion; opportunities for cost-effective managed adaptation; and improved technologies for meeting the energy demands. Climate science has been characterised by a level of integration of disciplinary fields uncommon in other areas. Yet the nature of the climate system, its diverse impacts and the range of mitigation options suggests that while disciplinary endeavours need to continue, further integration is required. Policy development requires the exploration of options that respect the complexity of climate and its impacts but also the pluralistic aspirations of societies. The 21st century should be characterised by considered, inclusive and strategic policy development. For science to contribute to this process, much more attention is needed to the processes involved in the exchange of knowledge between the scientific community and those who develop public or private policy. A new engagement and shared understanding of the potential role of science in modern societies, particularly with respect to climate change, is an essential component of

  11. EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DAIRY PRODUCTION IN BOTSWANA AND ITS SUITABLE MITIGATION STRATEGIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. MOREKI

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the effects of climate change on dairy production in Botswana and mitigation strategies are suggested. Dairy farming has not experienced growth over time rendering the country heavily dependent on milk imports. National dairy herd is estimated to be approximately 5000 and per capita consumption of milk about 32.5 litres per person per year. Currently, Botswana is experiencing average high temperatures and low rainfall, frequent droughts and scarcity of both ground and surface water, which all contribute to low livestock and crop productivity. Changes in rainfall patterns, frequent droughts, high incidences of animal diseases (e.g., mastitis and FMD and parasites, and high environmental temperatures cause significant decrease in livestock productivity. For dairy animals, there is a decline in milk yield and reduced animal weight gain due mainly to high temperatures and inadequate feeds. Mitigation strategies comprise using smaller dairy breeds such as Jersey and Brown Swiss and local Tswana breed, growing fodder crops and utilization of crop residues and constructing cow sheds. Thus, the effects of climate change on dairy cattle production are real and require immediate attention if they are to be minimized or managed properly to attain higher milk production.

  12. Climate Change Effects on River Discharge-Case Study Sheshpir River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Farajzadeh

    2013-01-01

    rainfall runoff model for the various scenarios showed that the amount of Sheshpir river flow has reduction for almost all of the months. Also the maximum reduction occurs in the months October, November, February and March (mainly in autumn and winter seasons and the minimum reduction in the spring and summer. Totally, the average annual decrease for the time period 2010-2040, 2040-2070 and 2070-2100 is respectively 39, 43 and 34 percent. 4– ConclusionCertainly preparing the future climate projection or climate prediction, using general circulation models includes lots of uncertainty. But we can definitely say that with continuing the development of industries, increasing pollutions and use of natural resources without any limitations, the human will be faced with the problem in the near future.It is important to note that water planners allocate the available water resources to the different consumption sectors (industry, drinking, agriculture and ... based on normal climatic condition. While the present study determined 34 to 43 percent reduction in water resources. Therefore, even if drought or other events does not occur, providing the normal rate will be faced with big challenge.Key words:Climate Change, Water Resource, Rainfall Runoff Model, GCM Model, Sheshpir River BasinReferencesBarrow, E., Hulme, M. and Semenov, M. (1996, Effect of using different methods in the construction of climate change scenarios: examples from Europe, Climate Research, 7, 195-211.Burn, D. H., and Hag Elnor, M. A. (2002, Detection of hydrologic trend and variability, J. of Hydrology, 255(1-4, 107-122.Booij, Martijn J., Daniël Tollenaar, Eelco van Beek, Jaap C.J. Kwadijk (2011, Simulating impacts of climate change on river discharges in the Nile basin, Journal of Hydrology, 36(2011, 696-709.Chiew Francis and Siriwardena Lionel (2004, Manual for trend/change detection software, CRC for Catchments Hydrology, Australia. www.toolkit.net.au/trend.Chung, Y. S., Tans P. P. (1997, Results of 7

  13. Effects of climate change on water resources in Tarim River Basin, Northwest China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Ya-ning; LI Wei-hong; XU Chang-chun; HAO Xin-ming

    2007-01-01

    Based on hydrology, temperature, and precipitation data from the past 50 years, the effects of climate change on water resources in Tarim River Basin in northwest China were investigated. The long-term trends of the hydrological time series were detected using both parametric and nonparametric techniques. The results showed that the increasing tendency of the temperature has a 5% level of significance, and the temperature increased by nearly 1℃ over the past fifty years. The precipitation showed a significant increase in the 1980s and 1990s, and the average annual precipitation exhibited an increasing trend with a magnitude of 6.8 mm per decade. A step change occurred in both the temperature and precipitation time series around 1986. The streamflow from the headwater of the Tarim River exhibited a significant increase during the last 20 years. The increase in temperature, precipitation, and streamflow may be attributed to global change.

  14. Effects of Climate Change on Urban Rainwater Harvesting in Colombo City, Sri Lanka

    OpenAIRE

    Kwong Fai A. Lo; Suranjith Bandara Koralegedara

    2015-01-01

    Cities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to water-related issues due to rapid urbanization, installation of complex infrastructure and changes in rainfall patterns. This study aims at assessing the impacts of climate change on rainwater harvesting systems (RWH) in the tropical urban city, Colombo, Sri Lanka. The future climate change projections are downscaled from global circulation models to the urban catchment scale using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG), des...

  15. Climate Change and Our Environment: The Effect on Respiratory and Allergic Disease

    OpenAIRE

    Barnes, Charles S.; Alexis, Neil E; Bernstein, Jonathan A.; John R. Cohn; Demain, Jeffrey G.; Horner, Elliott; Levetin, Estelle; Nel, Andre; Phipatanakul, Wanda

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is a constant and ongoing process. It is postulated that human activities have reached a point at which we are producing global climate change. This article provides suggestions to help the allergist/environmental physician integrate recommendations about improvements in outdoor and indoor air quality and the likely response to predicted alterations in the earth’s environment into their patient’s treatment plan. Many changes that affect respiratory disease are anticipated. Exam...

  16. Quantifying the climate impacts of albedo changes due to biofuel production: a comparison with biogeochemical effects

    OpenAIRE

    Caiazzo, Fabio; Malina, Robert; Staples, Mark Douglas; Wolfe, Philip James; Yim, Hung Lam Steve; Barrett, Steven

    2014-01-01

    Lifecycle analysis is a tool widely used to evaluate the climate impact of greenhouse gas emissions attributable to the production and use of biofuels. In this paper we employ an augmented lifecycle framework that includes climate impacts from changes in surface albedo due to land use change. We consider eleven land-use change scenarios for the cultivation of biomass for middle distillate fuel production, and compare our results to previous estimates of lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions for ...

  17. Effects of Climate Change on Ticks and Tick-Borne Diseases in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Lindgren, E.; Kahl, O.; A. Estrada-Peña; Dautel, H.; Gray, J. S.

    2009-01-01

    Zoonotic tick-borne diseases are an increasing health burden in Europe and there is speculation that this is partly due to climate change affecting vector biology and disease transmission. Data on the vector tick Ixodes ricinus suggest that an extension of its northern and altitude range has been accompanied by an increased prevalence of tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change may also be partly responsible for the change in distribution of Dermacentor reticulatus. Increased winter activity o...

  18. The economics of climate change in agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents a conceptual framework of the impact of climate change on agriculture. It assumes that climate change will result in a fertilization effect and a shift of agro-ecological conditions away from the Equator towards the Poles. The agro-ecological shift is likely to reduce yield because of reduced acreage and the fertilization effect will increase yield. The aggregate effect depends on whichever of the two dominates. The overall effect of climate change may be less significant than its distributional effects and the results are consistent with previous empirical studies. The impact of climate change depends on its pace. Faster changes in climate will result in higher cost. The assessment of the cost has to consider that climate change is a dynamic phenomenon that may require continuous adjustment. Environmental regulation that emphasizes conservation may increase cost of adjustment and environmental policies should emphasize adaptation and flexibility

  19. Impacts of climate change drivers on C4 grassland productivity: Scaling driver effects through the plant community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change drivers affect the plant community productivity via three pathways: 1) direct effects of drivers on plants, 2) the response of species abundances to drivers (community response), and 3) the feedback effect of community change on productivity (community effect). The contribution of e...

  20. Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Management in the Skagit River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    LEE, S.; Hamlet, A. F.

    2012-12-01

    Based on global climate model (GCM) scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) and subsequent hydrologic modeling studies for the Pacific Northwest, the impacts of climate change on hydrology in the Skagit River Basin are likely to be substantial under natural (unregulated) conditions. To assess the combined effects of increasing extreme flows (floods and low flows) and dam operations that determine impacts to regulated flow, a new integrated daily time step reservoir operations model was built for the Skagit River Basin. The model simulates current reservoir operating policies for historical flow conditions and for projected flows for the 2040s and 2080s using five different GCMs with the A1B emissions scenarios, and estimates sediment loading. By simulating alternative reservoir operating policies that provide increased flood storage and start flood evacuation one month earlier, prospects for adaptation in response to increased flood risks are considered. Results from the daily time step reservoir operations modeling show that regulated hydrologic extremes in the basin will likely become more intense. The regulated 100-year flood is projected to increase substantially in the future in comparison with historical regulated 100-year flood (23% by the 2040s and 40% by the 2080s). The regulated extreme 7-day low flows (7Q10) are also projected to decrease by about 30 % in the future. Alternative flood control operations (earlier and larger drafting of reservoirs) are shown to be largely ineffective in mitigating the increased flood risks in the lower Skagit, supporting the argument that climate change adaptation efforts will need to focus primarily on improving management of the floodplain, rather than focusing on modifying flood control operations in existing headwater projects. Projected changes in the Skagit River's flow regime are shown to have dramatic effects on estimated total suspended sediment load in the