WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate change current

  1. Western boundary currents and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seager, Richard; Simpson, Isla R.

    2016-09-01

    A recent paper in Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans connects recent changes in atmospheric circulation to poleward movement and intensification of western boundary currents. Causes and characteristics of past and future trends in surface wind stress and western boundary currents are discussed here.

  2. Climate change impacts in Iran: assessing our current knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahimi, Jaber; Malekian, Arash; Khalili, Ali

    2018-02-01

    During recent years, various studies have focused on investigating the direct and indirect impacts of climate changes in Iran while the noteworthy fact is the achievement gained by these researches. Furthermore, what should be taken into consideration is whether these studies have been able to provide appropriate opportunities for improving further studies in this particular field or not. To address these questions, this study systematically reviewed and summarized the current available literature (n = 150) regarding the impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation in Iran to assess our current state of knowledge. The results revealed that while all studies discuss the probable changes in temperature and precipitation over the next decades, serious contradictions could be seen in their results; also, the general pattern of changes was different in most of the cases. This matter may have a significant effect on public beliefs in climate change, which can be a serious warning for the activists in this realm.

  3. Climate Analogues Suggest Limited Potential for Intensification of Production on Current Croplands Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pugh, T. A. M.; Mueller, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Folberth, C.; Olin, S.; Schmid, E.; Arneth, A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.

  4. Current climate and climate change over India as simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandru, Adelina; Sushama, Laxmi

    2015-08-01

    The performance of the fifth generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) in reproducing the main climatic characteristics over India during the southwest (SW)-, post- and pre-monsoon seasons are presented in this article. To assess the performance of CRCM5, European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re- Analysis (ERA- 40) and Interim re-analysis (ERA-Interim) driven CRCM5 simulation is compared against independent observations and reanalysis data for the 1971-2000 period. Projected changes for two future periods, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, with respect to the 1971-2000 current period are assessed based on two transient climate change simulations of CRCM5 spanning the 1950-2100 period. These two simulations are driven by the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Low Resolution Model (MPI-ESM-LR), respectively. The boundary forcing errors associated with errors in the driving global climate models are also studied by comparing the 1971-2000 period of the CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-LR driven simulations with that of the CRCM5 simulation driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim. Results show that CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is in general able to capture well the temporal and spatial patterns of 2 m-temperature, precipitation, wind, sea level pressure, total runoff and soil moisture over India in comparison with available reanalysis and observations. However, some noticeable differences between the model and observational data were found during the SW-monsoon season within the domain of integration. CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is 1-2 °C colder than CRU observations and generates more precipitation over the Western Ghats and central regions of India, and not enough in the northern and north-eastern parts of India and along the Konkan west coast in comparison with the observed precipitation. The monsoon onset seems to be relatively well captured over the southwestern coast of

  5. Climate change and food security in Tanzania: analysis of current ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A review of literature was conducted in order to identify knowledge gaps in climate change and food security research in Tanzania. The review focused on published literature covering the past 20 years addressing climate change effects on various components of the food security. The review of literature reveals, among ...

  6. Climate Change and Food Security in Tanzania: Analysis of Current ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    harvesting systems, weak research-extension- farmer linkages, rapid population growth, poor agricultural policies, inadequate application of agricultural technologies, poor agricultural practices, unreliable markets, crop pests and diseases, global energy demand, and climate change and variability (Ernhart and Twena,.

  7. Little auks buffer the impact of current Arctic climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grémillet, David; Welcker, Jorg; Karnovsky, Nina J.

    2012-01-01

    in this region that are potentially highly susceptible to climatic effects. Using an integrative study of their behaviour, physiology and fitness at three study sites, we evaluated the impact of ocean warming on little auks across the Greenland Sea in 2005-2007. Contrary to our hypothesis, the birds responded...... to a wide range of sea surface temperatures via plasticity of their foraging behaviour, allowing them to maintain their fitness levels unchanged. Predicted effects of climate change are significantly attenuated by such plasticity, confounding attempts to forecast future impacts of climate change by envelope...

  8. Smallholder agriculture in India and adaptation to current and future climate variability and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murari, K. K.; Jayaraman, T.

    2014-12-01

    Modeling studies have indicated that global warming, in many regions, will increase the exposure of major crops to rainfall and temperature stress, leading to lower crop yields. Climate variability alone has a potential to decrease yield to an extent comparable to or greater than yield reductions expected due to rising temperature. For India, where agriculture is important, both in terms of food security as well as a source of livelihoods to a majority of its population, climate variability and climate change are subjects of serious concern. There is however a need to distinguish the impact of current climate variability and climate change on Indian agriculture, especially in relation to their socioeconomic impact. This differentiation is difficult to determine due to the secular trend of increasing production and yield of the past several decades. The current research in this aspect is in an initial stage and requires a multi-disciplinary effort. In this study, we assess the potential differential impacts of environmental stress and shock across different socioeconomic strata of the rural population, using village level survey data. The survey data from eight selected villages, based on the Project on Agrarian Relations in India conducted by the Foundation for Agrarian Studies, indicated that income from crop production of the top 20 households (based on the extent of operational land holding, employment of hired labour and asset holdings) is a multiple of the mean income of the village. In sharp contrast, the income of the bottom 20 households is a fraction of the mean and sometimes negative, indicating a net loss from crop production. The considerable differentials in output and incomes suggest that small and marginal farmers are far more susceptible to climate variability and climate change than the other sections. Climate change is effectively an immediate threat to small and marginal farmers, which is driven essentially by socioeconomic conditions. The impact

  9. Response of Mycorrhizal Diversity to Current Climatic Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen E. Williams

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Form and function of mycorrhizas as well as tracing the presence of the mycorrhizal fungi through the geological time scale are herein first addressed. Then mycorrhizas and plant fitness, succession, mycorrhizas and ecosystem function, and mycorrhizal resiliency are introduced. From this, four hypotheses are drawn: (1 mycorrhizal diversity evolved in response to changes in Global Climate Change (GCC environmental drivers, (2 mycorrhizal diversity will be modified by present changes in GCC environmental drivers, (3 mycorrhizal changes in response to ecological drivers of GCC will in turn modify plant, community, and ecosystem responses to the same, and (4 Mycorrhizas will continue to evolve in response to present and future changes in GCC factors. The drivers of climate change examined here are: CO2 enrichment, temperature rise, altered precipitation, increased N-deposition, habitat fragmentation, and biotic invasion increase. These impact the soil-rhizosphere, plant and fungal physiology and/or ecosystem(s directly and indirectly. Direct effects include changes in resource availability and change in distribution of mycorrhizas. Indirect effects include changes in below ground allocation of C to roots and changes in plant species distribution. GCC ecological drivers have been partitioned into four putative time frames: (1 Immediate (1–2 years impacts, associated with ecosystem fragmentation and habitat loss realized through loss of plant-hosts and disturbance of the soil; (2 Short-term (3–10 year impacts, resultant of biotic invasions of exotic mycorrhizal fungi, plants and pests, diseases and other abiotic perturbations; (3 Intermediate-term (11–20 year impacts, of cumulative and additive effects of increased N (and S deposition, soil acidification and other pollutants; and (4 Long-term (21–50+ year impacts, where increased temperatures and CO2 will destabilize global rainfall patterns, soil properties and plant ecosystem resilience. Due

  10. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth

  11. Challenging the current climate change – migration nexus: exploring migrants’ perceptions of climate change in the hosting country

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Guttry, Corinna

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Along with the growing scientific and political concern on global warming, the relationship of climate and migration is framed as cause and consequence. Alarmist numbers of mass migration and related conflicts currently represent the main scientific narratives merging the issue of migration and climate change. This paper takes a different and explorative perspective: it suggests that scientific discourses on migration and climate change should be reframed by taking into consideration the diverse ‘knowledges’ offered by migrants. Employing an experimentalist approach, we aim at filling this gap in research and introduce an empirical perspective on climate framings among Italian and Chinese citizens in the local context of the city of Hamburg (Germany. Qualitatively analysing semi-structured interviews, the paper conveys an in-depth analysis of how Italian and Chinese migrants frame climate change and, furthermore, explores philosophical backgrounds informing them. We start with a theoretical and methodological outline on undertaking research with migrants and then turn to an empirical analysis in which we examine and discuss four prevailing categories found in the course of our investigation. The final section summarises the results and reflects upon the methodological and theoretical approach applied which refers to the relevance of migrants as active actors in local adaptation and mitigation processes of the hosting country.

  12. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    Based on contributions on 120 French and foreign scientists representing different disciplines (mathematics, physics, mechanics, chemistry, biology, medicine, and so on), this report proposes an overview of the scientific knowledge and debate about climate change. It discusses the various indicators of climate evolution (temperatures, ice surfaces, sea level, biological indicators) and the various factors which may contribute to climate evolution (greenhouse gases, solar radiation). It also comments climate evolutions in the past as they can be investigated through some geological, thermal or geochemical indicators. Then, the authors describe and discuss the various climate mechanisms: solar activity, oceans, ice caps, greenhouse gases. In a third part, the authors discuss the different types of climate models which differ by the way they describe processes, and the current validation process for these models

  13. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, or ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. Climate ...

  14. The feathered world and the global climate: Current changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berthold, P.

    1998-01-01

    For the avifauna, environmental conditions in northern latitudes obviously have been changing to the better, primarily in the northern hemisphere, so that bird species have been expanding towards the northern face of the earth. This has been observed by ornitologists who came to realize that more species than before remained for longer periods in their northern breeding grounds, with reproduction rates increasing and mortality during the winter seasons declining. Most of the trends observed are significant, although there also are some species whose number in traditional living environments is declining. The positive trends are attributed to the recent global warming. Should this process continue, it is expected to cause considerable shifts in the bird population, from subtropical regions up to the polar regions. At our latitudes, the populations of non-migratory birds are expected to grow, while those of birds migrating over long distances should decline. This might reduce the diversity in species over a given period, but experts expect that this will be followed by growing and lasting diversity at our latitudes. (orig./CB) [de

  15. Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Molinos, J; Burrows, M T; Poloczanska, E S

    2017-05-02

    Biogeographical shifts are a ubiquitous global response to climate change. However, observed shifts across taxa and geographical locations are highly variable and only partially attributable to climatic conditions. Such variable outcomes result from the interaction between local climatic changes and other abiotic and biotic factors operating across species ranges. Among them, external directional forces such as ocean and air currents influence the dispersal of nearly all marine and many terrestrial organisms. Here, using a global meta-dataset of observed range shifts of marine species, we show that incorporating directional agreement between flow and climate significantly increases the proportion of explained variance. We propose a simple metric that measures the degrees of directional agreement of ocean (or air) currents with thermal gradients and considers the effects of directional forces in predictions of climate-driven range shifts. Ocean flows are found to both facilitate and hinder shifts depending on their directional agreement with spatial gradients of temperature. Further, effects are shaped by the locations of shifts in the range (trailing, leading or centroid) and taxonomic identity of species. These results support the global effects of climatic changes on distribution shifts and stress the importance of framing climate expectations in reference to other non-climatic interacting factors.

  16. Evidence of current impact of climate change on life : A walk from genes to the biosphere

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Penuelas, Josep; Sardans, Jordi; Estiarte, Marc; Ogaya, Roma; Carnicer, Jofre; Coll, Marta; Barbeta, Adria; Rivas-Ubach, Albert; Llusia, Joan; Garbulsky, Martin; Filella, Iolanda; Jump, Alistair S.

    We review the evidence of how organisms and populations are currently responding to climate change through phenotypic plasticity, genotypic evolution, changes in distribution and, in some cases, local extinction. Organisms alter their gene expression and metabolism to increase the concentrations of

  17. Species distributions and climate change:current patterns and future scenarios for biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hof, Christian

    How does climate change affect biodiversity? - Answering this question is one of the most important tasks in current ecological research. Earth has been warming by 0.7°C during the last 100 years, and the consequences are already apparent in biotic systems. For example, species are responding...... by shifts of their distributional ranges, which affects the spatial patterns of species richness and turnover. Global temperatures are projected to rise by 1.8 - 4°C until the end of the century; hence climate change will most likely leave further imprints on species and ecosystems. This PhD thesis aims...... extinction, one might assume that most species may also be able to successfully cope with contemporary climate change. However, current ecosystems are heavily modified by humans. Among other factors, habitat destruction and fragmentation caused by anthropogenic land-use changes negatively affect species...

  18. Biodiversity in a changing climate: a synthesis of current and projected trends in the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staudinger, Michelle D.; Carter, Shawn L.; Cross, Molly S.; Dubois, Natalie S.; Duffy, J. Emmett; Enquist, Carolyn; Griffis, Roger; Hellmann, Jessica J.; Lawler, Joshua J.; O’Leary, John; Morrison, Scott A.; Sneddon, Lesley; Stein, Bruce A.; Thompson, Laura M.; Turner, Woody

    2013-01-01

    This paper provides a synthesis of the recent literature describing how global biodiversity is being affected by climate change and is projected to respond in the future. Current studies reinforce earlier findings of major climate-change-related impacts on biological systems and document new, more subtle after-effects. For example, many species are shifting their distributions and phenologies at faster rates than were recorded just a few years ago; however, responses are not uniform across species. Shifts have been idiosyncratic and in some cases counterintuitive, promoting new community compositions and altering biotic interactions. Although genetic diversity enhances species' potential to respond to variable conditions, climate change may outpace intrinsic adaptive capacities and increase the relative vulnerabilities of many organisms. Developing effective adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation will not only require flexible decision-making and management approaches that account for uncertainties in climate projections and ecological responses but will also necessitate coordinated monitoring efforts.

  19. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    This paper presented indicators of climate change for British Columbia (BC) with an emphasis on the coastal region. An overview of global effects of climate change was presented, as well as details of BC's current climate change action plan. Indicators examined in the paper for the BC coastal region included long-term trends in air temperature; long-term trends in precipitation; coastal ocean temperatures; sea levels on the BC coast; and the sensitivity of the BC coast to sea level rise and erosion. Data suggested that average air temperatures have become higher in many areas, and that Springtime temperatures have become warmer over the whole province. Winters have become drier in many areas of the province. Sea surface temperature has risen over the entire coast, with the North Coast and central Strait of Georgia showing the largest increases. Deep-water temperatures have also increased in 5 inlets on the South Coast. Results suggested that the direction and spatial pattern of the climate changes reported for British Columbia are consistent with broader trends in North America and the type of changes predicted by climate models for the region. Climate change will likely result in reduced snow-pack in southern BC. An earlier spring freshet on many snow-dominated river systems is anticipated as well as glacial retreat and disappearance. Warmer temperatures in some lakes and rivers are expected, as well as the increased frequency and severity of natural disturbances such as the pine mountain beetle. Large-scale shifts in ecosystems and the loss of certain ecosystems may also occur. BC's current climate plan includes cost effective actions that address GHG emissions and support efficient infrastructure and opportunities for innovation. Management programs for forest and agricultural lands have been initiated, as well as programs to reduce emissions from government operations. Research is also being conducted to understand the impacts of climate change on water

  20. Climate Change Vulnerability and Resilience: Current Status and Trends for Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibarraran , Maria E.; Malone, Elizabeth L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.

    2008-12-30

    Climate change alters different localities on the planet in different ways. The impact on each region depends mainly on the degree of vulnerability that natural ecosystems and human-made infrastructure have to changes in climate and extreme meteorological events, as well as on the coping and adaptation capacity towards new environmental conditions. This study assesses the current resilience of Mexico and Mexican states to such changes, as well as how this resilience will look in the future. In recent studies (Moss et al. 2000, Brenkert and Malone 2005, Malone and Brenket 2008, Ibarrarán et al. 2007), the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model (VRIM) is used to integrate a set of proxy variables that determine the resilience of a region to climate change. Resilience, or the ability of a region to respond to climate variations and natural events that result from climate change, is given by its adaptation and coping capacity and its sensitivity. On the one hand, the sensitivity of a region to climate change is assessed, emphasizing its infrastructure, food security, water resources, and the health of the population and regional ecosystems. On the other hand, coping and adaptation capacity is based on the availability of human resources, economic capacity and environmental capacity.

  1. Climatic Change,

    Science.gov (United States)

    diagnoses of the mechanisms of both past and possible future climatic changes , an activity which has underscored the need for more complete...documentation of both recent instrumentally observed climatic changes and of those inferred from historical and paleoclimatic sources.

  2. Crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, S K; Adjeroud, M; Bellwood, D R; Berumen, M L; Booth, D; Bozec, Y-Marie; Chabanet, P; Cheal, A; Cinner, J; Depczynski, M; Feary, D A; Gagliano, M; Graham, N A J; Halford, A R; Halpern, B S; Harborne, A R; Hoey, A S; Holbrook, S J; Jones, G P; Kulbiki, M; Letourneur, Y; De Loma, T L; McClanahan, T; McCormick, M I; Meekan, M G; Mumby, P J; Munday, P L; Ohman, M C; Pratchett, M S; Riegl, B; Sano, M; Schmitt, R J; Syms, C

    2010-03-15

    Expert opinion was canvassed to identify crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes. Scientists that had published three or more papers on the effects of climate and environmental factors on reef fishes were invited to submit five questions that, if addressed, would improve our understanding of climate change effects on coral reef fishes. Thirty-three scientists provided 155 questions, and 32 scientists scored these questions in terms of: (i) identifying a knowledge gap, (ii) achievability, (iii) applicability to a broad spectrum of species and reef habitats, and (iv) priority. Forty-two per cent of the questions related to habitat associations and community dynamics of fish, reflecting the established effects and immediate concern relating to climate-induced coral loss and habitat degradation. However, there were also questions on fish demographics, physiology, behaviour and management, all of which could be potentially affected by climate change. Irrespective of their individual expertise and background, scientists scored questions from different topics similarly, suggesting limited bias and recognition of a need for greater interdisciplinary and collaborative research. Presented here are the 53 highest-scoring unique questions. These questions should act as a guide for future research, providing a basis for better assessment and management of climate change impacts on coral reefs and associated fish communities.

  3. Crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes

    KAUST Repository

    Wilson, S. K.

    2010-02-26

    Expert opinion was canvassed to identify crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes. Scientists that had published three or more papers on the effects of climate and environmental factors on reef fishes were invited to submit five questions that, if addressed, would improve our understanding of climate change effects on coral reef fishes. Thirty-three scientists provided 155 questions, and 32 scientists scored these questions in terms of: (i) identifying a knowledge gap, (ii) achievability, (iii) applicability to a broad spectrum of species and reef habitats, and (iv) priority. Forty-two per cent of the questions related to habitat associations and community dynamics of fish, reflecting the established effects and immediate concern relating to climate-induced coral loss and habitat degradation. However, there were also questions on fish demographics, physiology, behaviour and management, all of which could be potentially affected by climate change. Irrespective of their individual expertise and background, scientists scored questions from different topics similarly, suggesting limited bias and recognition of a need for greater interdisciplinary and collaborative research. Presented here are the 53 highest-scoring unique questions. These questions should act as a guide for future research, providing a basis for better assessment and management of climate change impacts on coral reefs and associated fish communities.

  4. Climate-Induced Change in South Central Siberia: Predictions Versus Current Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soja, A. J.; Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Shishikin, A.; Kanzai, V.; Westberg, D. J.; Sukhinin, A. I.; Ivanova, G. A.; Stackhouse, P. W.

    2007-12-01

    is expected to change and may be currently showing indications of climate-induced change.

  5. Current practices and future opportunities for policy on climate change and invasive species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyke, Christopher R; Thomas, Roxanne; Porter, Read D; Hellmann, Jessica J; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Lodge, David M; Chavarria, Gabriela

    2008-06-01

    Climate change and invasive species are often treated as important, but independent, issues. Nevertheless, they have strong connections: changes in climate and societal responses to climate change may exacerbate the impacts of invasive species, whereas invasive species may affect the magnitude, rate, and impact of climate change. We argue that the design and implementation of climate-change policy in the United States should specifically consider the implications for invasive species; conversely, invasive-species policy should address consequences for climate change. The development of such policies should be based on (1) characterization of interactions between invasive species and climate change, (2) identification of areas where climate-change policies could negatively affect invasive-species management, and (3) identification of areas where policies could benefit from synergies between climate change and invasive-species management.

  6. Potential effects of climate change on a marine invasion: The importance of current context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabelle M. CÔTÉ, Stephanie J. GREEN

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Species invasions threaten marine biodiversity globally. There is a concern that climate change is exacerbating this problem. Here, we examined some of the potential effects of warming water temperatures on the invasion of Western Atlantic habitats by a marine predator, the Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans and P. miles. We focussed on two temperature-dependent aspects of lionfish life-history and behaviour: pelagic larval duration, because of its link to dispersal potential, and prey consumption rate, because it is an important determinant of the impacts of lionfish on native prey. Using models derived from fundamental metabolic theory, we predict that the length of time spent by lionfish in the plankton in early life should decrease with warming temperatures, with a concomitant reduction in potential dispersal distance. Although the uncertainty around change in dispersal distances is large, predicted reductions are, on average, more than an order of magnitude smaller than the current rate of range expansion of lionfish in the Caribbean. Nevertheless, because shorter pelagic larval duration has the potential to increase local retention of larvae, local lionfish management will become increasingly important under projected climate change. Increasing temperature is also expected to worsen the current imbalance between rates of prey consumption by lionfish and biomass production by their prey, leading to a heightened decline in native reef fish biomass. However, the magnitude of climate-induced decline is predicted to be minor compared to the effect of current rates of lionfish population increases (and hence overall prey consumption rates on invaded reefs. Placing the predicted effects of climate change in the current context thus reveals that, at least for the lionfish invasion, the threat is clear and present, rather than future [Current Zoology 58 (1: 1–8, 2012].

  7. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  8. Climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.

  9. Current models broadly neglect specific needs of biodiversity conservation in protected areas under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moloney Kirk A

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Protected areas are the most common and important instrument for the conservation of biological diversity and are called for under the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity. Growing human population densities, intensified land-use, invasive species and increasing habitat fragmentation threaten ecosystems worldwide and protected areas are often the only refuge for endangered species. Climate change is posing an additional threat that may also impact ecosystems currently under protection. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to include the potential impact of climate change when designing future nature conservation strategies and implementing protected area management. This approach would go beyond reactive crisis management and, by necessity, would include anticipatory risk assessments. One avenue for doing so is being provided by simulation models that take advantage of the increase in computing capacity and performance that has occurred over the last two decades. Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modeling terrestrial protected areas under climate change, with the aim of evaluating and detecting trends and gaps in the current approaches being employed, as well as to provide a useful overview and guidelines for future research. Results Most studies apply statistical, bioclimatic envelope models and focus primarily on plant species as compared to other taxa. Very few studies utilize a mechanistic, process-based approach and none examine biotic interactions like predation and competition. Important factors like land-use, habitat fragmentation, invasion and dispersal are rarely incorporated, restricting the informative value of the resulting predictions considerably. Conclusion The general impression that emerges is that biodiversity conservation in protected areas could benefit from the application of modern modeling approaches to a greater extent than is currently reflected in the

  10. Current challenges of implementing anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change in models contributing to climate change assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prestele, Reinhard; Arneth, Almut; Bondeau, Alberte; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Sitch, Stephen; Stehfest, Elke; Verburg, Peter H.

    2017-05-01

    Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) represents one of the key drivers of global environmental change. However, the processes and drivers of anthropogenic land-use activity are still overly simplistically implemented in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). The published results of these models are used in major assessments of processes and impacts of global environmental change, such as the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Fully coupled models of climate, land use and biogeochemical cycles to explore land use-climate interactions across spatial scales are currently not available. Instead, information on land use is provided as exogenous data from the land-use change modules of integrated assessment models (IAMs) to TBMs. In this article, we discuss, based on literature review and illustrative analysis of empirical and modeled LULCC data, three major challenges of this current LULCC representation and their implications for land use-climate interaction studies: (I) provision of consistent, harmonized, land-use time series spanning from historical reconstructions to future projections while accounting for uncertainties associated with different land-use modeling approaches, (II) accounting for sub-grid processes and bidirectional changes (gross changes) across spatial scales, and (III) the allocation strategy of independent land-use data at the grid cell level in TBMs. We discuss the factors that hamper the development of improved land-use representation, which sufficiently accounts for uncertainties in the land-use modeling process. We propose that LULCC data-provider and user communities should engage in the joint development and evaluation of enhanced LULCC time series, which account for the diversity of LULCC modeling and increasingly include empirically based information about sub-grid processes and land-use transition trajectories, to improve the representation of land use in TBMs. Moreover, we suggest concentrating on the

  11. The Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity in Nepal: Current Knowledge, Lacunae, and Opportunities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aishwarya Bhattacharjee

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Nepal has an extreme altitudinal range from 60–8850 m with heterogeneous topography and distinct climatic zones. The country is considered a biodiversity hotspot, with nearly a quarter of the land area located in protected areas. Nepal and the surrounding Himalayan region are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their abrupt ecological and climatic transitions. Tens of millions of people rely on the region’s ecosystem services, and observed and modeled warming trends predict increased climate extremes in the Himalayas. To study the ecological impacts of climate change in Nepal and inform adaptation planning, we review the literature on past, present, and predicted future climatic changes and their impacts on ecological diversity in Nepal. We found few studies focusing on organisms, while research on species and communities was more common. Most studies document or predict species range shifts and changes in community composition. Results of these few investigations highlight major lacunae in research regarding the effects of changing climate on species comprising the Himalayan biota. Further empirical work is needed at all levels of biological organization to build on information regarding direct ecological impacts of climatic changes in the region. Countries face an ever-increasing threat of climate change, and Nepal has strong physiographic, elevational, and climatic gradients that could provide a useful model for studying the effects of climate change on a mountainous, and highly biodiverse, area.

  12. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perthuis, Ch. de; Delbosc, A.

    2009-01-01

    Received ideas about climatic change are a mixture of right and wrong information. The authors use these ideas as starting points to shade light on what we really know and what we believe to know. The book is divided in three main chapters: should we act in front of climatic change? How can we efficiently act? How can we equitably act? For each chapter a series of received ideas is analyzed in order to find those which can usefully contribute to mitigate the environmental, economical and social impacts of climatic change. (J.S.)

  13. Trees and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Dettenmaier, Megan; Kuhns, Michael; Unger, Bethany; McAvoy, Darren

    2017-01-01

    This fact sheet describes the complex relationship between forests and climate change based on current research. It explains ways that trees can mitigate some of the risks associated with climate change. It details the impacts that forests are having on the changing climate and discuss specific ways that trees can be used to reduce or counter carbon emissions directly and indirectly.

  14. Fixing Climate: What Past Climate Changes Reveal About the Current Threat-And How to Counter It

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinley, Galen A.

    2008-10-01

    The Earth's climate is changing due to human activities. Recent polls suggest that the U.S. public generally recognizes this fact, and the efforts that led the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and former U.S. vice president Al Gore to win the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize have played no small role in bringing most of the public to realize what scientists have been discussing for years. Yet aside from distorted Hollywood movie accounts such as The Day After Tomorrow, the public knows little about the potential for abrupt change in the climate system. With support from climate science philanthropist Gary Comer, climate scientist Wally Broecker has teamed with science writer Robert Kunzig in this book to bring abrupt climate change into public view. They do this elegantly and convincingly, making the first 12 chapters quite enjoyable.

  15. Classical Ecological Restoration and its Current Challenges: Assisted Migration as an Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilar A. Gómez-Ruiz

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Ecological restoration is a very active area in ecology and of great importance for ecosystems management. Despite of being a relatively young discipline, the classical concepts of restoration seem, at present, impractical considering the great challenges generated by modification and destruction of ecosystems. This is due to anthropic activities (deforestation, change of land use, pollution and global climate change. In the classic definition of restoration, the objective is to recover the degraded ecosystem to the same conditions of a historical reference state. However, nowadays the ecosystems return to a state prior to the disturbances seems unviable, because the thresholds of resilience have already been overcome. Additionally, climate change is causing environmental changes at an unprecedented rate. For this reason, ecological restoration needs to unite efforts of diverse actors to recover ecosystems that can be sustainable and functional in the future, where the species could be able to tolerate the environmental conditions that will exist in the long term. Assisted migration has been proposed as a conservation strategy; it is defined as the translocation of species to new locations outside their known range of distribution. In the current context of loss of diversity and ecosystems, this strategy could be fundamental for the formation of new communities that can later become novel ecosystems where species that are fundamental to the dynamics of ecosystems can persist and, at the same time, recover function, structure and resilience.

  16. Heat waves in Portugal: Current regime, changes in future climate and impacts on extreme wildfires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parente, J; Pereira, M G; Amraoui, M; Fischer, E M

    2018-03-09

    Heat waves (HW) can have devastating social, economic and environmental impacts. Together with long-term drought, they are the main factors contributing to wildfires. Surprisingly, the quantitative and objective analysis leading to the identification and characterization of HW in current and future climate conditions as well as its influence on the occurrence of extreme wildfires (EW) has never been performed for Portugal and are the main objectives of this study. For this reason, we assess HW in recent past and future climate based on a consistent high resolution meteorological database and have compared their occurrence with long and reliable, precise and detailed information about Portuguese fire events. Results include the characterization of HW frequency, duration, seasonality and intensity for current and different future climate conditions and their relationship with EW occurrence. We detected 130 HW between 1981 and 2010, concentrated between May and October and highest values in July and August. The highest HW number and duration is found over the Northeast corner and the south of the country while highest amplitudes are typically located in central area. HW characteristics present high inter-annual variability but are clearly associated to the temporal and spatial distribution of EW: 97% of total number of EW were active during an HW, 90% of total EW days were also HW days; 82% of the EW had duration completely contained in the duration of an HW; and, 83% of EW occurred during and in the area affected by HW. Our results also show that HW should increase in number, duration and amplitude, more significantly for RCP 8.5, and for the 30-year periods near the end of the 21st century. Findings of this study will support the definition of climate change adaptation strategies for fire danger and risk management. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  17. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-01-01

    In spite of man's remarkable advances in technology, ultimately he is still dependent on the Earth's climatic system for food and fresh water. The recent occurrences in certain regions of the world of climatic extremes such as excessive rain or droughts and unseasonably high or low temperatures have led to speculation that a major climatic change is occurring on a global scale. Some point to the recent drop in temperatures in the northern hemisphere as an indication that the Earth is entering a new ice age. Others see a global warming trend that may be due to a build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. An authoritative report on the subject has been prepared by a World Meteorological Organization Panel of Experts on Climatic Change. Excerpts from the report are given. (author)

  18. Climate Change Education: Preparing Future and Current Business Leaders--A Workshop Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storksdieck, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Climate change poses challenges as well as opportunities for businesses and, broadly speaking for the entire economy. Businesses will be challenged to provide services or products with less harmful influence on the climate; respond to a changing policy, regulatory, and market environment; and provide new services and products to help address the…

  19. Climate change, water stress, conflict and migration : Taking stock of current insights through a vulnerability lens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hermans, L.M.

    2011-01-01

    There is a growing awareness in international policy circles that climate change may be a driver of increased migration flows. In addition to political refugees and economic migrants, climate change-induced migration and environmental migrants are increasingly recognized as categories in human

  20. Climatic changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    According to Cleo Paskal climatic changes are environmental changes. They are global, but their impact is local, and manifests them selves in the landscape, in our cities, in open urban spaces, and in everyday life. The landscape and open public spaces will in many cases be the sites where...... measurements to handle climatic changes will be positioned and enacted. Measurements taken are mostly adaptive or aimed to secure and protect existing values, buildings, infrastructure etc., but will in many cases also affects functions, meaning and peoples identification with the landscape and the open urban...... be addressed in order to develop and support social sustainability and identification. This paper explore and discuss how the handling of climatic changes in landscape and open urban spaces might hold a potential for them to become common goods....

  1. Climatic Change. Human Influence?

    OpenAIRE

    Gonçalves, Dionísio; Leite, Solange; Ribeiro, A.C.; Figueiredo, Tomás de

    2016-01-01

    We begin by presenting the functioning of the Climate System and the variety of climates that occurs on the surface of the globe. We analyze climate change based on the sun's orbital parameters and other causes, focusing on the current interglacial period and the influence it had on the development of human societies. The following text looks on developing of the climate of the last 1000 years, with considerations about the warm medieval climate, the little ice age, the recovery...

  2. Reassessing the penultimate interglacial analog for current climate change, evidence from Antarctic dust

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aarons, S. M.; Aciego, S.; McConnell, J.

    2017-12-01

    Dust emissions and transport are linked to spatial and temporal climate variability, with dust provenance providing clues to past climate and climate impacts. The penultimate interglacial period (MIS 5e) has been suggested as an analog to Holocene climate change. We present the first evaluation of the MIS 5e ice archive developed at Taylor Glacier, East Antarctica and provide a record of dust transported to Taylor Glacier during MIS 5e. Our record shows significant differences between MIS 5e, Holocene, and pre-industrial dust transported to East Antarctica. The MIS 5e dust is sourced from New Zealand and southern South America (SSA), while the Holocene dust is sourced from local Antarctic, SSA, and potentially Australian sources. This profound change in composition suggests a variation in atmospheric transport pathways and/or paleo-environmental conditions between the interglacial periods, and indicates that MIS 5e should be reassessed as an analog for climate change and associated impacts.

  3. Modeling the prospects for climatic change: current state-of-the-art and implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kellogg, W. M.

    1980-04-04

    It has been increasingly suggested that the world's climate is going to change in the next several decades, primarily as a result of anthropogenic perturbations to the global carbon cycle brought about by fossil fuel burning and large-scale deforestation. In order to cope with these future climatic changes, it is necessary that tools be developed to predict how complex systems respond to a given change of conditions. This report summarizes the status of our ability to model the planetary system that determines the climate. (ACR)

  4. Climate change and forest diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    R.N. Sturrock; Susan Frankel; A. V. Brown; Paul Hennon; J. T. Kliejunas; K. J. Lewis; J. J. Worrall; A. J. Woods

    2011-01-01

    As climate changes, the effects of forest diseases on forest ecosystems will change. We review knowledge of relationships between climate variables and several forest diseases, as well as current evidence of how climate, host and pathogen interactions are responding or might respond to climate change. Many forests can be managed to both adapt to climate change and...

  5. Global climate change: a synopsis of current activities in the Office of Fossil Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    South, D.W.; Kane, R.

    1990-01-01

    This paper reports on the US DOE Office of Fossil Energy investigation and monitoring of several aspects of global climate change as it relates to fossil fuels. The paper consists of the overheads from the presentation. The topics of this paper include greenhouse gases from fossil fuels, scientific uncertainties, legislation and protocols, mitigation strategies and policies, energy and economic impacts, and the role of clean coal technologies and fossil fuels in global climate change

  6. Climate change and wildfire effects in aridland riparian ecosystems: An examination of current and future conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. Max Smith; Deborah M. Finch

    2017-01-01

    Aridland riparian ecosystems are limited, the climate is changing, and further hydrological change is likely in the American Southwest. To protect riparian ecosystems and organisms, we need to understand how they are affected by disturbance processes and stressors such as fire, drought, and non-native plant invasions. Riparian vegetation is critically important as...

  7. The impact of climate change on food security in South Africa: Current realities and challenges ahead

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tshepo S. Masipa

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to examine the impact of climate change on food security in South Africa. For this purpose, the article adopted a desktop study approach. Previous studies, reports, surveys and policies on climate change and food (insecurity. From this paper’s analysis, climate change presents a high risk to food security in sub-Saharan countries from crop production to food distribution and consumption. In light of this, it is found that climate change, particularly global warming, affects food security through food availability, accessibility, utilisation and affordability. To mitigate these risks, there is a need for an integrated policy approach to protect the arable land against global warming. The argument advanced in this article is that South Africa’s ability to adapt and protect its food items depends on the understanding of risks and the vulnerability of various food items to climate change. However, this poses a challenge in developing countries, including South Africa, because such countries have weak institutions and limited access to technology. Another concern is a wide gap between the cost of adapting and the necessary financial support from the government. There is also a need to invest in technologies that will resist risks on food systems.

  8. The impact of climate change on food security in South Africa: Current realities and challenges ahead

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tshepo S. Masipa

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to examine the impact of climate change on food security in South Africa. For this purpose, the article adopted a desktop study approach. Previous studies, reports, surveys and policies on climate change and food (insecurity. From this paper’s analysis, climate change presents a high risk to food security in sub-Saharan countries from crop production to food distribution and consumption. In light of this, it is found that climate change, particularly global warming, affects food security through food availability, accessibility, utilisation and affordability. To mitigate these risks, there is a need for an integrated policy approach to protect the arable land against global warming. The argument advanced in this article is that South Africa’s ability to adapt and protect its food items depends on the understanding of risks and the vulnerability of various food items to climate change. However, this poses a challenge in developing countries, including South Africa, because such countries have weak institutions and limited access to technology. Another concern is a wide gap between the cost of adapting and the necessary financial support from the government. There is also a need to invest in technologies that will resist risks on food systems.

  9. Assessing the metrics of climate change. Current methods and future possibilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuglestveit, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje K.; Godal, Odd; Sausen, Robert; Shine, Keith P.; Skodvin, Tora

    2001-07-01

    With the principle of comprehensiveness embedded in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Art. 3), a multi-gas abatement strategy with emphasis also on non-CO2 greenhouse gases as targets for reduction and control measures has been adopted in the international climate regime. In the Kyoto Protocol, the comprehensive approach is made operative as the aggregate anthropogenic carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of six specified greenhouse gases or groups of gases (Art. 3). With this operationalisation, the emissions of a set of greenhouse gases with very different atmospheric lifetimes and radiative properties are transformed into one common unit - CO2 equivalents. This transformation is based on the Global Warming Potential (GWP) index, which in turn is based on the concept of radiative forcing. The GWP metric and its application in policy making has been debated, and several other alternative concepts have been suggested. In this paper, we review existing and alternative metrics of climate change, with particular emphasis on radiative forcing and GWPs, in terms of their scientific performance. This assessment focuses on questions such as the climate impact (end point) against which gases are weighted; the extent to which and how temporality is included, both with regard to emission control and with regard to climate impact; how cost issues are dealt with; and the sensitivity of the metrics to various assumptions. It is concluded that the radiative forcing concept is a robust and useful metric of the potential climatic impact of various agents and that there are prospects for improvement by weighing different forcings according to their effectiveness. We also find that although the GWP concept is associated with serious shortcomings, it retains advantages over any of the proposed alternatives in terms of political feasibility. Alternative metrics, however, make a significant contribution to addressing important issues, and this contribution should be taken

  10. Current state of glaciers in the tropical Andes: a perspective on glacier evolution and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabatel, Antoine; Francou, Bernard; Soruco, Alvaro; Gomez, Jesus; Caceres, Bolivar; Ceballos, Jorge-Luis; Vuille, Mathias; Sicart, Jean-Emmanuel; Huggel, Christian

    2013-04-01

    This presentation provides a comprehensive overview of the studies of glaciers in the tropical Andes conducted in recent decades leading to the current status of the glaciers in the context of climate change. In terms of changes in surface area and length, we show that the glacier retreat in the tropical Andes over the last three decades is unprecedented since the maximum extension of the LIA (mid 17th - early 18th century). In terms of changes in mass balance, although there have been some sporadic gains on several glaciers, we show that the trend has been quite negative over the past 50 years, with a mean mass balance deficit for glaciers in the tropical Andes that is slightly more negative than the one computed on a global scale. A break point in the trend appeared in the late 1970s with mean annual mass balance per year decreasing from -0.2 m w.e. in the period 1964-1975 to -0.76 m w.e. in the period 1976-2010. In addition, even if glaciers are currently retreating everywhere in the tropical Andes, it should be noted that this is much more pronounced on small glaciers at low altitudes that do not have a permanent accumulation zone, and which could disappear in the coming years/decades. Monthly mass balance measurements performed in Bolivia, Ecuador and Colombia show that variability of the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean is the main factor governing variability of the mass balance at the decadal time scale. Precipitation did not display a significant trend in the tropical Andes in the 20th century, and consequently cannot explain the glacier recession. On the other hand, temperature increased at a significant rate of 0.10°C/decade in the last 70 years. The higher frequency of El Niño events and changes in its spatial and temporal occurrence since the late 1970s together with a warming troposphere over the tropical Andes may thus explain much of the recent dramatic shrinkage of glaciers in this part of the world.

  11. Groundwater recharge in desert playas: current rates and future effects of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Our results from playas, which are topographic low areas situated in closed-catchments in drylands, indicated that projected climate change in Southwestern USA would have a net positive impact over runon and groundwater recharge beneath playas. Expected increased precipitation variability can cause ...

  12. Southern Africa’s climate: Current state and recent historical changes

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Davis, C

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Southern Africa is a predominantly semi-arid region with high rainfall variability, characterised by frequent droughts and floods. It is also widely recognised as one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change because of low levels of adaptive...

  13. Climate Change and Cities in Africa: Current Dilemmas and Future Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-01

    solutions to complex global challenges. About the CCAPS Program The Climate Change and African Political Stability (CCAPS) program conducts research in...to grow today, primarily due to “burning fossil fuels to produce energy, although deforestation , industrial processes, and some agricultural

  14. Climatic changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    measurements to handle climatic changes will be positioned and enacted. Measurements taken are mostly adaptive or aimed to secure and protect existing values, buildings, infrastructure etc., but will in many cases also affects functions, meaning and peoples identification with the landscape and the open urban...... doesn’t become place, and thus not experienced as a common good. Many Danish towns are situated by the sea; this has historically supported a strong spatial, functional and economically identity of the cities, with which people have identified. Effects of globalization processes and a rising sea level...... are now ques-tioning this. Measurements as dykes will changes or cut off the spatial and func-tional coherence between the city structure and the sea. Questions regarding the status and the appropriation of these ‘new’ adaptive func-tions in landscapes and open urban spaces by ordinary people must...

  15. Interactive effects of air pollution and climate change on forest ecosystems in the United States: current understanding and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrzej Bytnerowicz; Mark Fenn; Steven McNulty; Fengming Yuan; Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Charles Driscoll; Tom Meixner

    2013-01-01

    A review of the current status of air pollution and climate change (CC) in the United States from a perspective of their impacts on forest ecosystems is provided. Ambient ozone (O3) and nitrogen (N) deposition have important and widespread ecological impacts in U.S. forests. Effects of sulphurous (S) air pollutants and other trace pollutants have...

  16. Climate Change in Latin America and the Caribbean. Current status and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-11-01

    This report is based on the agreements reached at the ITC meeting held in Brasilia on 17 and 18 July 2003, where each of the participating ITC agencies promised to compile collective efforts in the various thematic areas of priority to the Latin American and the Caribbean Initiative for Sustainable Development (LACI). In this report the activities on climate change that have been carried out in the region are detailed. It also notes the region's opportunities for implementing the Framework Convention on Climate Change. It should be noted that the inputs for this paper have been provided by the ITC agencies, that has been structured according to the activities and lines of work considered as important and strategic by the agencies

  17. Climate change and wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    William J. De Groot; Michael D. Flannigan; Brian J. Stocks

    2013-01-01

    Wildland fire regimes are primarily driven by climate/weather, fuels and people. All of these factors are dynamic and their variable interactions create a mosaic of fire regimes around the world. Climate change will have a substantial impact on future fire regimes in many global regions. Current research suggests a general increase in area burned and fire occurrence...

  18. Climate change - the science

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hengeveld, H.G.

    2001-01-01

    There is a scientific basis for the concern over climate change. It rests in the fundamental principles of physics and chemistry. In the early months of 2001, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its Working Groups convened a series of meetings in Shanghai, Geneva, Accra and Nairobi to finalize its Third Assessment Report on the science of climate change. The culmination of a two-year process involving more than 2000 scientific and technical experts and intensive peer review, this report provides the most up-to-date and comprehensive assessment of the science of climate change currently available. It will now serve as the scientific basis for ongoing international negotiations on climate change mitigation

  19. CMIP5 model simulations of Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation: current climate and future changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Laifang; Li, Wenhong; Ballard, Tristan; Sun, Ge; Jeuland, Marc

    2016-05-01

    Kiremt-season (June-September) precipitation provides a significant water supply for Ethiopia, particularly in the central and northern regions. The response of Kiremt-season precipitation to climate change is thus of great concern to water resource managers. However, the complex processes that control Kiremt-season precipitation challenge the capability of general circulation models (GCMs) to accurately simulate precipitation amount and variability. This in turn raises questions about their utility for predicting future changes. This study assesses the impact of climate change on Kiremt-season precipitation using state-of-the-art GCMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Compared to models with a coarse resolution, high-resolution models (horizontal resolution African Low-level Jet (EALLJ) and the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ). The high-resolution models project a strengthening of the EALLJ, but a weakening of the TEJ. Future changes in the EALLJ and TEJ will drive this precipitation system in opposite directions, leading to small or no net changes in precipitation in Ethiopia.

  20. Trade and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamiotti, L.; Teh, R.; Kulacoglu, V. (World Trade Organization (WTO), Geneva (Switzerland)); Olhoff, A.; Simmons, B.; Abaza, H. (United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (Denmark))

    2009-06-15

    The Report aims to improve understanding about the linkages between trade and climate change. It shows that trade intersects with climate change in a multitude of ways. For example, governments may introduce a variety of policies, such as regulatory measures and economic incentives, to address climate change. This complex web of measures may have an impact on international trade and the multilateral trading system. The Report begins with a summary of the current state of scientific knowledge on climate change and on the options available for responding to the challenge of climate change. The scientific review is followed by a part on the economic aspects of the link between trade and climate change, and these two parts set the context for the subsequent parts of the Report, which looks at the policies introduced at both the international and national level to address climate change. The part on international policy responses to climate change describes multilateral efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the effects of climate change, and also discusses the role of the current trade and environment negotiations in promoting trade in technologies that aim to mitigate climate change. The final part of the Report gives an overview of a range of national policies and measures that have been used in a number of countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to increase energy efficiency. It presents key features in the design and implementation of these policies, in order to draw a clearer picture of their overall effect and potential impact on environmental protection, sustainable development and trade. It also gives, where appropriate, an overview of the WTO rules that may be relevant to such measures. (author)

  1. Changing climate, changing frames

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vink, Martinus J.; Boezeman, Daan; Dewulf, Art; Termeer, Catrien J.A.M.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► We show development of flood policy frames in context of climate change attention. ► Rising attention on climate change influences traditional flood policy framing. ► The new framing employs global-scale scientific climate change knowledge. ► With declining attention, framing disregards climate change, using local knowledge. ► We conclude that frames function as sensemaking devices selectively using knowledge. -- Abstract: Water management and particularly flood defence have a long history of collective action in low-lying countries like the Netherlands. The uncertain but potentially severe impacts of the recent climate change issue (e.g. sea level rise, extreme river discharges, salinisation) amplify the wicked and controversial character of flood safety policy issues. Policy proposals in this area generally involve drastic infrastructural works and long-term investments. They face the difficult challenge of framing problems and solutions in a publicly acceptable manner in ever changing circumstances. In this paper, we analyse and compare (1) how three key policy proposals publicly frame the flood safety issue, (2) the knowledge referred to in the framing and (3) how these frames are rhetorically connected or disconnected as statements in a long-term conversation. We find that (1) framings of policy proposals differ in the way they depict the importance of climate change, the relevant timeframe and the appropriate governance mode; (2) knowledge is selectively mobilised to underpin the different frames and (3) the frames about these proposals position themselves against the background of the previous proposals through rhetorical connections and disconnections. Finally, we discuss how this analysis hints at the importance of processes of powering and puzzling that lead to particular framings towards the public at different historical junctures

  2. Consistent role of Quaternary climate change in shaping current plant functional diversity patterns across European plant orders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ordonez, Alejandro; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2017-02-01

    Current and historical environmental conditions are known to determine jointly contemporary species distributions and richness patterns. However, whether historical dynamics in species distributions and richness translate to functional diversity patterns remains, for the most part, unknown. The geographic patterns of plant functional space size (richness) and packing (dispersion) for six widely distributed orders of European angiosperms were estimated using atlas distribution data and trait information. Then the relative importance of late-Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate change and contemporary environmental factors (climate, productivity, and topography) as determinants of functional diversity of evaluated orders was assesed. Functional diversity patterns of all evaluated orders exhibited prominent glacial-interglacial climate change imprints, complementing the influence of contemporary environmental conditions. The importance of Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate change factors was comparable to that of contemporary environmental factors across evaluated orders. Therefore, high long-term paleoclimate variability has imposed consistent supplementary constraints on functional diversity of multiple plant groups, a legacy that may permeate to ecosystem functioning and resilience. These findings suggest that strong near-future anthropogenic climate change may elicit long-term functional disequilibria in plant functional diversity.

  3. Consistent role of Quaternary climate change in shaping current plant functional diversity patterns across European plant orders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ordonez, Alejandro; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2017-02-23

    Current and historical environmental conditions are known to determine jointly contemporary species distributions and richness patterns. However, whether historical dynamics in species distributions and richness translate to functional diversity patterns remains, for the most part, unknown. The geographic patterns of plant functional space size (richness) and packing (dispersion) for six widely distributed orders of European angiosperms were estimated using atlas distribution data and trait information. Then the relative importance of late-Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate change and contemporary environmental factors (climate, productivity, and topography) as determinants of functional diversity of evaluated orders was assesed. Functional diversity patterns of all evaluated orders exhibited prominent glacial-interglacial climate change imprints, complementing the influence of contemporary environmental conditions. The importance of Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate change factors was comparable to that of contemporary environmental factors across evaluated orders. Therefore, high long-term paleoclimate variability has imposed consistent supplementary constraints on functional diversity of multiple plant groups, a legacy that may permeate to ecosystem functioning and resilience. These findings suggest that strong near-future anthropogenic climate change may elicit long-term functional disequilibria in plant functional diversity.

  4. Bird Species and Climate Change. The Global Status Report. A synthesis of current scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change impacts on global bird species now, and projected future effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wormworth, J.; Mallon, K.

    2006-01-01

    The results of a global analysis of current and future impacts of climate change on birds are presented. The report reviews more than 200 research reports to assemble a clear and consistent picture of climatic risk to this important animal group, illustrated with numerous examples and case studies. It is found that: climate change now affects bird species' behaviour, ranges and population dynamics; some bird species are already experiencing strong negative impacts from climate change; and in future, subject to greenhouse gas emissions levels and climatic response, climate change will put large numbers of bird species at risk of extinction, with estimates of extinction rates varying from 2 to 72%, depending on the region, climate scenario and potential for birds to shift to new habitat

  5. Climate Change: Consensus or Controversy?

    OpenAIRE

    Nicholls, Neville

    2006-01-01

    The hundreds of scientists comprising the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) maintain that there is a consensus that humans are changing the global climate. Yet many commentators in the media dispute this, and a reader of such commentaries would surely conclude that climate change is a controversy rather than a consensus. This is simply incorrect – the overwhelming majority of climate scientists accept the reality of the greenhouse effect and its impact on the current climate. T...

  6. Modeling and mapping the current and future distribution of Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae under climate change in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Rulin; Li, Qing; He, Shisong; Liu, Yuan; Wang, Mingtian; Jiang, Gan

    2018-01-01

    Bacterial canker of kiwifruit caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa) is a major threat to the kiwifruit industry throughout the world and accounts for substantial economic losses in China. The aim of the present study was to test and explore the possibility of using MaxEnt (maximum entropy models) to predict and analyze the future large-scale distribution of Psa in China. Based on the current environmental factors, three future climate scenarios, which were suggested by the fifth IPCC report, and the current distribution sites of Psa, MaxEnt combined with ArcGIS was applied to predict the potential suitable areas and the changing trend of Psa in China. The jackknife test and correlation analysis were used to choose dominant climatic factors. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) drawn by MaxEnt was used to evaluate the accuracy of the simulation. The results showed that under current climatic conditions, the area from latitude 25° to 36°N and from longitude 101° to 122°E is the primary potential suitable area of Psa in China. The highly suitable area (with suitability between 66 and 100) was mainly concentrated in Northeast Sichuan, South Shaanxi, most of Chongqing, West Hubei and Southwest Gansu and occupied 4.94% of land in China. Under different future emission scenarios, both the areas and the centers of the suitable areas all showed differences compared with the current situation. Four climatic variables, i.e., maximum April temperature (19%), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (14%), precipitation in May (11.5%) and minimum temperature in October (10.8%), had the largest impact on the distribution of Psa. The MaxEnt model is potentially useful for forecasting the future adaptive distribution of Psa under climate change, and it provides important guidance for comprehensive management.

  7. Climate change and skin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balato, N; Ayala, F; Megna, M; Balato, A; Patruno, C

    2013-02-01

    Global climate appears to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Climate change can be caused by several factors that include variations in solar radiation received by earth, oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions, as well as human-induced alterations of the natural world. Many human activities, such as the use of fossil fuel and the consequent accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, land consumption, deforestation, industrial processes, as well as some agriculture practices are contributing to global climate change. Indeed, many authors have reported on the current trend towards global warming (average surface temperature has augmented by 0.6 °C over the past 100 years), decreased precipitation, atmospheric humidity changes, and global rise in extreme climatic events. The magnitude and cause of these changes and their impact on human activity have become important matters of debate worldwide, representing climate change as one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. Although many articles have been written based on observations and various predictive models of how climate change could affect social, economic and health systems, only few studies exist about the effects of this change on skin physiology and diseases. However, the skin is the most exposed organ to environment; therefore, cutaneous diseases are inclined to have a high sensitivity to climate. For example, global warming, deforestation and changes in precipitation have been linked to variations in the geographical distribution of vectors of some infectious diseases (leishmaniasis, lyme disease, etc) by changing their spread, whereas warm and humid environment can also encourage the colonization of the skin by bacteria and fungi. The present review focuses on the wide and complex relationship between climate change and dermatology, showing the numerous factors that are contributing to modify the incidence and the clinical pattern of many

  8. Agriculture: Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change affects agricultural producers because agriculture and fisheries depend on specific climate conditions. Temperature changes can cause crop planting dates to shift. Droughts and floods due to climate change may hinder farming practices.

  9. Basin-scale simulation of current and potential climate changed hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Daniel E.; Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.

    2014-01-01

    The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) is the largest public investment in the Great Lakes in two decades. A task force of 11 Federal agencies developed an action plan to implement the initiative. The U.S. Department of the Interior was one of the 11 agencies that entered into an interagency agreement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as part of the GLRI to complete scientific projects throughout the Great Lakes basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, a bureau within the Department of the Interior, is involved in the GLRI to provide scientific support to management decisions as well as measure progress of the Great Lakes basin restoration efforts. This report presents basin-scale simulated current and forecast climatic and hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin. The forecasts were obtained by constructing and calibrating a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model of the Lake Michigan Basin; the PRMS model was calibrated using the parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis (PEST) software suite. The calibrated model was used to evaluate potential responses to climate change by using four simulated carbon emission scenarios from eight general circulation models released by the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3. Statistically downscaled datasets of these scenarios were used to project hydrologic response for the Lake Michigan Basin. In general, most of the observation sites in the Lake Michigan Basin indicated slight increases in annual streamflow in response to future climate change scenarios. Monthly streamflows indicated a general shift from the current (2014) winter-storage/snowmelt-pulse system to a system with a more equally distributed hydrograph throughout the year. Simulated soil moisture within the basin illustrates that conditions within the basin are also expected to change on a monthly timescale. One effect of increasing air temperature as a result of the changing

  10. THE REACTION OF FISHT GLACIER (WESTERN CAUCASUS TO CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Pogorelov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We have generalized observation data on Fisht Glacier – the most western glacier in the Caucasus located at elevation 2450–2750 m asl. Considering location of Fisht Glacier we might сonsider it one of the most sensitive to climate change glaciers in the Caucasus. We used the following materials: sketch map (1909, aerial photos (1954, topographic map (1957, detailed map (1:5000, 1982, LIDAR survey data (2010 and finally UAV data (2015. We have noted considerable shrinkage of glacier area from 0.9±0.1 to 0.5±0.01 km2 in 1909–2015, retreat of glacier termini was assessed as 200±20 m (eastern snout and 350±20 m (western snout. We consider that during 1982–2010 the glacier was close to equilibrium, but during 2010–2015 the glacier surface elevation lowering up to 15–20 m was accompanied by an abrupt decrease of glacier area at about 15 %. Rapid glacier downwashing in 2010–2015 could be explained by a significant decrease of October-May (accumulation season precipitation and snow thickness accompanied by an increase of June-September (ablation season air temperature in comparison to 1982–2010. During 2010– 2015 mean ablation was about 800 mm w.e. more than during 1982–2010. Basing on geodetical data on glacier change in 1982–2010 and ablation values assessed using DDF (4600 mm w.e. we have roughly estimated mean accumulation at Fisht Glacier as 4500 mm w.e. In 2010–2015 mean accumulation was at least 600 mm w.e. lower than in 1982–2010. As a result in 2010–2015 Fisht Glacier lost at least 1500 mm w.e. more than in 1982–2010.Basing on obtained results we could adjust regional pattern of the glacier response to climate change in the Caucasus. Rarely applied in Russia both LIDAR and UAV techniques are recognized as precise tools for mapping glacier surface in high mountains. 

  11. Groundwater recharge in desert playas: current rates and future effects of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, Owen P.; Sala, Osvaldo E.

    2018-01-01

    Our results from playas, which are topographic low areas situated in closed-catchments in drylands, indicated that projected climate change in Southwestern USA would have a net positive impact over runon and groundwater recharge beneath playas. Expected increased precipitation variability can cause up to a 300% increase in annual groundwater recharge beneath playas. This increase will overshadow the effect of decreased precipitation amount that could cause up to a 50% decrease in recharge beneath playas. These changes could have a significant impact on groundwater and carbon storage. These results are important given that groundwater resources in Southwestern USA continue to decline due to human consumption outpacing natural recharge of aquifers. Here, we report on groundwater recharge rates ranging from less than 1 mm to greater than 25 mm per year beneath desert playas. Playas located in larger and steeper catchments with finer-textured soils had the highest rates of recharge. Vegetation cover had no effect on recharge beneath playas. We modeled catchment runoff generation and found that the amount of runon a playa receives annually strongly correlated to the rate of groundwater recharge beneath that playa. Runon occurred during precipitation events larger than 20 mm and increased linearly with events above that threshold.

  12. Climate change: Recent findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hesselmans, G.H.F.M.

    1993-08-01

    In the late eighties several reports have been published on climate change and sea level rise. In the meantime insights may have changed due to the availability of better and more observations and/or more advanced climate models. The aim of this report is to present the most recent findings with respect to climate change, in particular of sea level rise, storm surges and river peak flows. These climate factors are important for the safety of low-lying areas with respect to coastal erosion and flooding. In the first chapters a short review is presented of a few of the eighties reports. Furthermore, the predictions by state of the art climate models at that time are given. The reports from the eighties should be considered as 'old' information, whereas the IPCC supplement and work, for example, by Wigley should be considered as new information. To assess the latest findings two experts in this field were interviewed: dr J. Oerlemans and dr C.J.E. Schuurmans, a climate expert from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). Their views are presented together with results published in recent papers on the subject. On the basis of this assessment, the report presents current knowledge regarding predictions of climate change (including sea-level rise) over the next century, together with an assessment of the uncertainties associated with these predictions. 14 figs., 11 tabs., 24 refs

  13. Changes in the world rivers' discharge projected from an updated high resolution dataset of current and future climate zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santini, Monia; di Paola, Arianna

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, an updated global map of the current climate zoning and of its projections, according to the Köppen-Geiger classification, is first provided. The map at high horizontal resolution (0.5° × 0.5°), representative of the current (i.e. 1961-2005) conditions, is based on the Climate Research Unit dataset holding gridded series of historical observed temperature and precipitation, while projected conditions rely on the simulated series, for the same variables, by the General Circulation Model CMCC-CM. Modeled variables were corrected for their bias and then projections of climate zoning were generated for the medium term (2006-2050) and long term (2056-2100) future periods, under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. Results show that Equatorial and Arid climates will spread at the expenses of Snow and Polar climates, with the Warm Temperate experiencing more moderate increase. Maps of climate zones are valuable for a wide range of studies on climate change and its impacts, especially those regarding the water cycle that is strongly regulated by the combined conditions of precipitation and temperature. As example of large scale hydrological applications, in this work we tested and implemented a spatial statistical procedure, the geographically weighted regression among climate zones' surface and mean annual discharge (MAD) at hydrographic basin level, to quantify likely changes in MAD for the main world rivers monitored through the Global Runoff Data Center database. The selected river basins are representative of more than half of both global superficial freshwater resources and world's land area. Globally, a decrease in MAD is projected both in the medium term and long term, while spatial differences highlight how some areas require efforts to avoid consequences of amplified water scarcity, while other areas call for strategies to take the opportunity from the expected increase in water availability. Also the fluctuations of trends between the

  14. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rind, D.

    1990-01-01

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century

  15. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rind, D.

    1991-01-01

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century. 19 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

  16. Climate Change and National Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-01

    does not display a currently valid OMB control number. PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ADDRESS. a. REPORT Climate Change and National...Security 14. ABSTRACT 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: Does climate change constitute a national security threat to the United States? What is climate ...resources for an in-depth discussion on national security and climate change . 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES

  17. Collapse of the California Current during glacial maxima linked to climate change on land.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbert, T D; Schuffert, J D; Andreasen, D; Heusser, L; Lyle, M; Mix, A; Ravelo, A C; Stott, L D; Herguera, J C

    2001-07-06

    Time series of alkenone unsaturation indices gathered along the California margin reveal large (4 degrees to 8 degrees C) glacial-interglacial changes in sea surface temperature (SST) over the past 550,000 years. Interglacial times with SSTs equal to or exceeding that of the Holocene contain peak abundances in the pollen of redwood, the distinctive component of the temperate rainforest of the northwest coast of California. In the region now dominated by the California Current, SSTs warmed 10,000 to 15,000 years in advance of deglaciation at each of the past five glacial maxima. SSTs did not rise in advance of deglaciation south of the modern California Current front. Glacial warming along the California margin therefore is a regional signal of the weakening of the California Current during times when large ice sheets reorganized wind systems over the North Pacific. Both the timing and magnitude of the SST estimates suggest that the Devils Hole (Nevada) calcite record represents regional but not global paleotemperatures, and hence does not pose a fundamental challenge to the orbital ("Milankovitch") theory of the Ice Ages.

  18. Greenland climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Swingedouw, D.; Landais, A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate archives available from deep-sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that during the last decade (2000s...... regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. The magnitude and rate of future changes in Greenland temperature, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, may be faster than any past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Projections indicate that within one century Greenland may......), atmospheric and sea-surface temperatures are reaching levels last encountered millennia ago when northern high latitude summer insolation was higher due to a different orbital configuration. Concurrently, records from lake sediments in southern Greenland document major environmental and climatic conditions...

  19. CLIMATIC CHANGE AND CLIMATE CONTROL,

    Science.gov (United States)

    The heat balance method together with certain other methods of theoretical climatology for investigating the laws of natural climatic changes and for determining the possibility of controlling such changes is discussed.

  20. Learning Progressions & Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Joyce M.; de los Santos, Elizabeth X.; Anderson, Charles W.

    2015-01-01

    Our society is currently having serious debates about sources of energy and global climate change. But do students (and the public) have the requisite knowledge to engage these issues as informed citizenry? The learning-progression research summarized here indicates that only 10% of high school students typically have a level of understanding…

  1. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carmin, J.; Tierney, K.; Chu, E.; Hunter, L.M.; Roberts, J.T.; Shi, L.; Dunlap, R.E.; Brulle, R.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the

  2. The Impacts of Maximum Temperature and Climate Change to Current and Future Pollen Distribution in Skopje, Republic of Macedonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Kendrovski

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND. The goal of the present paper was to assess the impact of current and future burden of the ambient temperature to pollen distributions in Skopje. METHODS. In the study we have evaluated a correlation between the concentration of pollen grains in the atmosphere of Skopje and maximum temperature, during the vegetation period of 1996, 2003, 2007 and 2009 as a current burden in context of climate change. For our analysis we have selected 9 representative of each phytoallergen group (trees, grasses, weeds. The concentration of pollen grains has been monitored by a Lanzoni volumetric pollen trap. The correlation between the concentration of pollen grains in the atmosphere and selected meteorological variable from weekly monitoring has been studied with the help of linear regression and correlation coefficients. RESULTS. The prevalence of the sensibilization of standard pollen allergens in Skopje during the some period shows increasing from 16,9% in 1996 to 19,8% in 2009. We detect differences in onset of flowering, maximum and end of the length of seasons for pollen. The pollen distributions and risk increases in 3 main periods: early spring, spring and summer which are the main cause of allergies during these seasons. The largest increase of air temperature due to climate change in Skopje is expected in the summer season. CONCLUSION. The impacts of climate change by increasing of the temperature in the next decades very likely will include impacts on pollen production and differences in current pollen season. [TAF Prev Med Bull 2012; 11(1.000: 35-40

  3. Climate changes your business

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Businesses face much bigger climate change costs than they realise. That is the conclusion of Climate Changes Your Business. The climate change risks that companies should be paying more attention to are physical risks, regulatory risks as well as risk to reputation and the emerging risk of litigation, says the report. It argues that the risks associated with climate change tend to be underestimated

  4. Modeling Nitrogen Losses in Conventional and Advanced Soil-Based Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems under Current and Changing Climate Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Ivan; Cooper, Jennifer; Amador, José A; Boving, Thomas B

    2016-01-01

    Most of the non-point source nitrogen (N) load in rural areas is attributed to onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS). Nitrogen compounds cause eutrophication, depleting the oxygen in marine ecosystems. OWTS rely on physical, chemical and biological soil processes to treat wastewater and these processes may be affected by climate change. We simulated the fate and transport of N in different types of OWTS drainfields, or soil treatment areas (STA) under current and changing climate scenarios, using 2D/3D HYDRUS software. Experimental data from a mesocosm-scale study, including soil moisture content, and total N, ammonium (NH4+) and nitrate (NO3-) concentrations, were used to calibrate the model. A water content-dependent function was used to compute the nitrification and denitrification rates. Three types of drainfields were simulated: (1) a pipe-and-stone (P&S), (2) advanced soil drainfields, pressurized shallow narrow drainfield (PSND) and (3) Geomat (GEO), a variation of SND. The model was calibrated with acceptable goodness-of-fit between the observed and measured values. Average root mean square error (RSME) ranged from 0.18 and 2.88 mg L-1 for NH4+ and 4.45 mg L-1 to 9.65 mg L-1 for NO3- in all drainfield types. The calibrated model was used to estimate N fluxes for both conventional and advanced STAs under current and changing climate conditions, i.e. increased soil temperature and higher water table. The model computed N losses from nitrification and denitrification differed little from measured losses in all STAs. The modeled N losses occurred mostly as NO3- in water outputs, accounting for more than 82% of N inputs in all drainfields. Losses as N2 were estimated to be 10.4% and 9.7% of total N input concentration for SND and Geo, respectively. The highest N2 losses, 17.6%, were estimated for P&S. Losses as N2 increased to 22%, 37% and 21% under changing climate conditions for Geo, PSND and P&S, respectively. These findings can provide practitioners

  5. Terrestrial hydro-climatic change, lake shrinkage and water resource deterioration: Analysis of current to future drivers across Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarsjo, J.; Beygi, H.; Thorslund, J.

    2016-12-01

    Due to overlapping effects of different anthropogenic pressures and natural variability, main drivers behind on-going changes in the water cycle have in many cases not been identified, which complicates management of water resources. For instance, in many parts of the world, and not least in semi-arid and arid parts of Asia, lowered groundwater levels and shrinkage of surface water bodies with associated salinization and water quality deterioration constitute great challenges. With the aim to identify main drivers and mechanisms behind such changes, we here combine (i) historical observations of long-term, large scale change, (ii) ensemble projections of expected future change from the climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP 5) and (iii) output from water balance modelling. Our particular focus is on regions near shrinking lakes. For the principal Lake Urmia in Iran, results show that agricultural intensification including irrigation expansion has clearly contributed to the surprisingly rapid water quality deterioration and lake shrinkage, from 10% lake area reduction in 2002 to the current value of about 75% (leaving billion of tons of salt exposed in its basin). Nevertheless, runoff decrease due to climate change has had an even larger effect. For the Aral Sea in Central Asia, where problems accelerated much earlier (in the 1990's), land-use change and irrigation expansion can fully explain the disastrous surface water deficits and water quality problems in the extensive low-lying parts of the basin. However, projections show that climate-driven runoff decrease in the headwaters of the Aral Sea basin may become a dominant driver of continued change in the near-future. More generally, present results illustrate that mitigation measures that compensate only for land-use driven effects may not reverse current trends of decreasing water availability, due to increasingly strong impacts of climate-driven runoff decrease. This has

  6. Understanding climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fellous, J.L.; Gautier, C.; Andre, J.C.; Balstad, R.; Boucher, O.; Brasseur, G.; Chahine, M.T.; Chanin, M.L.; Ciais, P.; Corell, W.; Duplessy, J.C.; Hourcade, J.C.; Jouzel, J.; Kaufman, Y.J.; Laval, K.; Le Treut, H.; Minster, J.F.; Moore, B. III; Morel, P.; Rasool, S.I.; Remy, F.; Smith, R.C.; Somerville, R.C.J.; Wood, E.F.; Wood, H.; Wunsch, C.

    2007-01-01

    Climatic change is gaining ground and with no doubt is stimulated by human activities. It is therefore urgent to better understand its nature, importance and potential impacts. The chapters of this book have been written by US and French experts of the global warming question. After a description of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, GIEC in French) consensus, they present the past and present researches on each of the main component of the climate system, on the question of climatic change impacts and on the possible answers. The conclusion summarizes the results of each chapter. Content: presentation of the IPCC; greenhouse effect, radiation balance and clouds; atmospheric aerosols and climatic change; global water cycle and climate; influence of climatic change on the continental hydrologic cycle; ocean and climate; ice and climate; global carbon cycle; about some impacts of climatic change on Europe and the Atlantic Ocean; interaction between atmospheric chemistry and climate; climate and society, the human dimension. (J.S.)

  7. Ireland and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rzepski, G.; Lerouge, Ch.

    2010-05-01

    As the rise of sea level, the higher frequency of tempests, and the threat of water shortages in some parts of the country are the major stakes for Ireland in the struggle against climate change, this report gives an overview of greenhouse gas emissions in this country (globally and per sector) and of their evolution. It presents the Irish policy to struggle against climate change since 2000, its public actors (ministries, agencies), its different action plans (National Climate Change Strategy, energy sector planning, promotion of renewable energies, transport sector planning), and sector-based and tax measures implemented in Ireland. It discusses the limitations of the current policy (insufficient results, limited domestic measures, socioeconomic obstacles, complex political steering), describes the new European context and the present Irish context (economic crisis). Some new orientations are discussed

  8. Adaptability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sprague, M.W.

    1991-01-01

    The potential social, economic and environmental impacts of climate change are reviewed, with emphasis on agricultural implications. Impact analyses must be done on the scale of watersheds or river basins. For agriculture, climate change effects on water resources are likely to be more important than temperature changes, and climatic variability is also equally important. Another set of critical climatic variables are the frequencies, magnitudes and timing of extreme events such as floods, droughts, etc. A carbon dioxide enriched atmosphere will increase water use efficiency and confer increased tolerance to drought, salinity and air pollution. Better understanding and accounting is required for the effects of increased carbon dioxide on all plant life, including crops. Adaptability of agriculture to change must be taken into account in predicting impacts of climate change, with technological innovation and infrastructure giving agriculture a dynamic nature. Limitations and adaptations must be considered when formulating public policy, to ensure that marginal costs do not exceed marginal benefits. Monoculture plantation forests may be the most efficient sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide, yet widespread reliance on them may harm biological diversity. Actions the U.S. is currently taking under a no-regrets policy are summarized

  9. Precipitation Cluster Distributions: Current Climate Storm Statistics and Projected Changes Under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Kevin Martin

    The total amount of precipitation integrated across a precipitation cluster (contiguous precipitating grid cells exceeding a minimum rain rate) is a useful measure of the aggregate size of the disturbance, expressed as the rate of water mass lost or latent heat released, i.e. the power of the disturbance. Probability distributions of cluster power are examined during boreal summer (May-September) and winter (January-March) using satellite-retrieved rain rates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 and Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSM/I and SSMIS) programs, model output from the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HIRAM, roughly 0.25-0.5 0 resolution), seven 1-2° resolution members of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiment, and National Center for Atmospheric Research Large Ensemble (NCAR LENS). Spatial distributions of precipitation-weighted centroids are also investigated in observations (TRMM-3B42) and climate models during winter as a metric for changes in mid-latitude storm tracks. Observed probability distributions for both seasons are scale-free from the smallest clusters up to a cutoff scale at high cluster power, after which the probability density drops rapidly. When low rain rates are excluded by choosing a minimum rain rate threshold in defining clusters, the models accurately reproduce observed cluster power statistics and winter storm tracks. Changes in behavior in the tail of the distribution, above the cutoff, are important for impacts since these quantify the frequency of the most powerful storms. End-of-century cluster power distributions and storm track locations are investigated in these models under a "business as usual" global warming scenario. The probability of high cluster power events increases by end-of-century across all models, by up to an order of magnitude for the highest-power events for which statistics can be computed. For the three models in the suite with continuous

  10. Elements of change 1994. Climate-radiation feedbacks: The current state of the science

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-09-01

    This report presents the details of the Climate-Radiation Feedback summer seminar. Topics include: radiative transfer; radiative properties of clouds; absorption of radiation in the atmosphere due to clouds; global cloud climatology; aerosols; general circulation models; and convection. Individual papers have been indexed separately for the database.

  11. Climate Change Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presents information, charts and graphs showing measured climate changes across 40 indicators related to greenhouse gases, weather and climate, oceans, snow and ice, heath and society, and ecosystems.

  12. What incentives to climate change mitigation through harvested wood products in the current french policy framework? (Summary). Climate Report no. 47

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deheza, Mariana; N'Goran, Carmen; Bellassen, Valentin

    2014-09-01

    Beyond the important role that forests play in the fight against climate change through the sequestration of carbon in their biomass, wood products also contribute to climate change through three channels: - Material substitution: the manufacturing of wood products being less energy intensive allows to avoid carbon emissions from the processing of other alternative materials (eg. concrete, steel, etc); - Energy substitution: achieved by the generation of energy from wood combustion replacing other fossil fuels. - Carbon sequestration in the wood products: wood products sequester carbon during their whole life span until their decomposition. This Climate Report identifies French policies that have an impact on climate change mitigation by wood products through these three mitigation channels. Our analysis asserts that similarly to the context at the EU level, the current national policy framework incentives are mostly directed to the 'energy wood' sector. These incentives include fiscal and financial instruments such as: - The heat fund ('fonds chaleur'), which subsidizes the production of renewable heat particularly from biomass; - The zero interest rate eco-loans ('eco-pret a taux zero') and the Sustainable development tax credit ('credit d'impot developpement durable (CIDD)') which partly subsidize wood heating; - Reduced VAT on renewable heat purchases. The use of wood as a material is currently less encouraged, at least on the financial side: the few devices that support it are rarely binding and mobilize limited resources. Future measures planned under the National Action Plan for the forest-based sector and the upcoming law for the future of agriculture and forestry ('Loi d'avenir pour l'agriculture et la foret') could slightly re-balance this situation. (authors)

  13. Current temporal trends in moth abundance are counter to predicted effects of climate change in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Mark D; Kozlov, Mikhail V; Itämies, Juhani; Pulliainen, Erkki; Bäck, Jaana; Kyrö, Ella-Maria; Niemelä, Pekka

    2014-06-01

    Changes in climate are influencing the distribution and abundance of the world's biota, with significant consequences for biological diversity and ecosystem processes. Recent work has raised concern that populations of moths and butterflies (Lepidoptera) may be particularly susceptible to population declines under environmental change. Moreover, effects of climate change may be especially pronounced in high latitude ecosystems. Here, we examine population dynamics in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths in Finnish Lapland to assess current trajectories of population change. Moth counts were made continuously over a period of 32 years using light traps. From 456 species recorded, 80 were sufficiently abundant for detailed analyses of their population dynamics. Climate records indicated rapid increases in temperature and winter precipitation at our study site during the sampling period. However, 90% of moth populations were stable (57%) or increasing (33%) over the same period of study. Nonetheless, current population trends do not appear to reflect positive responses to climate change. Rather, time-series models illustrated that the per capita rates of change of moth species were more frequently associated negatively than positively with climate change variables, even as their populations were increasing. For example, the per capita rates of change of 35% of microlepidoptera were associated negatively with climate change variables. Moth life-history traits were not generally strong predictors of current population change or associations with climate change variables. However, 60% of moth species that fed as larvae on resources other than living vascular plants (e.g. litter, lichen, mosses) were associated negatively with climate change variables in time-series models, suggesting that such species may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Overall, populations of subarctic forest moths in Finland are performing better than expected, and their populations

  14. Impact of climate change on large scale coastal currents of South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Meyer, A

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available st century, that is: 1) a further intensification and southward shift of the mid-latitude westerlies with an affiliated increase in the antarctic circumpolar current transport; 2) a southwards migration and intensification of the Southern... Hemisphere sub-tropical gyre circulations; and 3) Stronger western boundary currents, that is, stronger agulhas current (along the east coast of South africa), and stronger Brazil and east australian current. figure 1: Map showing the model outputs...

  15. Health co-benefits and risks of public health adaptation strategies to climate change: a review of current literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, June J; Berry, Peter

    2013-04-01

    Many public health adaptation strategies have been identified in response to climate change. This report reviews current literature on health co-benefits and risks of these strategies to gain a better understanding of how they may affect health. A literature review was conducted electronically using English language literature from January 2000 to March 2012. Of 812 articles identified, 22 peer-reviewed articles that directly addressed health co-benefits or risks of adaptation were included in the review. The co-benefits and risks identified in the literature most commonly relate to improvements in health associated with adaptation actions that affect social capital and urban design. Health co-benefits of improvements in social capital have positive influences on mental health, independently of other determinants. Risks included reinforcing existing misconceptions regarding health. Health co-benefits of urban design strategies included reduced obesity, cardiovascular disease and improved mental health through increased physical activity, cooling spaces (e.g., shaded areas), and social connectivity. Risks included pollen allergies with increased urban green space, and adverse health effects from heat events through the use of air conditioning. Due to the current limited understanding of the full impacts of the wide range of existing climate change adaptation strategies, further research should focus on both unintended positive and negative consequences of public health adaptation.

  16. Climate change matters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macpherson, Cheryl Cox

    2014-04-01

    One manifestation of climate change is the increasingly severe extreme weather that causes injury, illness and death through heat stress, air pollution, infectious disease and other means. Leading health organisations around the world are responding to the related water and food shortages and volatility of energy and agriculture prices that threaten health and health economics. Environmental and climate ethics highlight the associated challenges to human rights and distributive justice but rarely address health or encompass bioethical methods or analyses. Public health ethics and its broader umbrella, bioethics, remain relatively silent on climate change. Meanwhile global population growth creates more people who aspire to Western lifestyles and unrestrained socioeconomic growth. Fulfilling these aspirations generates more emissions; worsens climate change; and undermines virtues and values that engender appreciation of, and protections for, natural resources. Greater understanding of how virtues and values are evolving in different contexts, and the associated consequences, might nudge the individual and collective priorities that inform public policy toward embracing stewardship and responsibility for environmental resources necessary to health. Instead of neglecting climate change and related policy, public health ethics and bioethics should explore these issues; bring transparency to the tradeoffs that permit emissions to continue at current rates; and offer deeper understanding about what is at stake and what it means to live a good life in today's world.

  17. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2013-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  18. Climate change research in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dawson, K.

    1994-01-01

    The current consensus on climatic change in Canada is briefly summarized, noting the results of modelling of the effects of a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 , the nonuniformity of climate change across the country, the uncertainties in local responses to change, and the general agreement that 2-4 degrees of warming will occur for each doubling of CO 2 . Canadian government response includes programs aimed at reducing the uncertainties in the scientific understanding of climate change and in the socio-economic response to such change. Canadian climate change programs include participation in large-scale experiments on such topics as heat transport in the ocean, and sources and sinks of greenhouse gases; development of next-generation climate models; studying the social and economic effects of climate change in the Great Lakes Basin and Mackenzie River Basin; investigation of paleoclimates; and analysis of climate data for long-term trends

  19. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2014-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  20. Climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Kolshus, Hans H.; Torvanger, Asbjoern

    2000-08-01

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

  1. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulation seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse in the 21st century of the thermohaline circulation is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  2. Climate change scenarios experiments predict a future reduction in small pelagic fish recruitment in the Humboldt Current system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brochier, Timothée; Echevin, Vincent; Tam, Jorge; Chaigneau, Alexis; Goubanova, Katerina; Bertrand, Arnaud

    2013-06-01

    The Humboldt Current System (HCS) sustains the world's largest small pelagic fishery. While a cooling of this system has been observed during recent decades, there is debate about the potential impacts of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations on upwelling dynamics and productivity. Recent studies suggest that under increased atmospheric CO2 scenarios the oceanic stratification may strongly increase and upwelling-favorable winds may remain nearly constant off Peru and increase off Chile. Here we investigate the impact of such climatic conditions on egg and larval dispersal phases, a key stage of small pelagic fish reproduction. We used larval retention rate in a predefined nursery area to provide a proxy for the recruitment level. Numerical experiments are based on hydrodynamics downscaled to the HCS from global simulations forced by pre-industrial (PI), 2 × CO2 and 4 × CO2 scenarios. A biogeochemical model is applied to the PI and 4 × CO2 scenarios to define a time-variable nursery area where larval survival is optimum. We test two distinct values of the oxycline depth that limits larval vertical distribution: One corresponding to the present-day situation and the other corresponding to a shallower oxycline potentially produced by climate change. It appeared that larval retention over the continental shelf increases with enhanced stratification due to regional warming. However, this increase in retention is largely compensated for by a decrease of the nursery area and the shoaling of the oxycline. The underlying dynamics are explained by a combination of stratification effects and mesoscale activity changes. Our results therefore show that future climate change may significantly reduce fish capacity in the HCS with strong ecological, economic and social consequences. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  3. Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate: Assessing Current Predictive Knowledge and Capabilities, User Requirements and Research Priorities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Siegfried

    2011-01-01

    Drought is fundamentally the result of an extended period of reduced precipitation lasting anywhere from a few weeks to decades and even longer. As such, addressing drought predictability and prediction in a changing climate requires foremost that we make progress on the ability to predict precipitation anomalies on subseasonal and longer time scales. From the perspective of the users of drought forecasts and information, drought is however most directly viewed through its impacts (e.g., on soil moisture, streamflow, crop yields). As such, the question of the predictability of drought must extend to those quantities as well. In order to make progress on these issues, the WCRP drought information group (DIG), with the support of WCRP, the Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences, the La Caixa Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Science Foundation, has organized a workshop to focus on: 1. User requirements for drought prediction information on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 2. Current understanding of the mechanisms and predictability of drought on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 3. Current drought prediction/projection capabilities on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 4. Advancing regional drought prediction capabilities for variables and scales most relevant to user needs on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales. This introductory talk provides an overview of these goals, and outlines the occurrence and mechanisms of drought world-wide.

  4. Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Home / News / Fact sheets / Detail WHO /A. Craggs Climate change and health 1 February 2018 ","datePublished":"2018-02- ... in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution. Climate change Over the last 50 years, human activities – particularly ...

  5. Climate Change Adaptation Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-11

    US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG® Climate Change Adaptation Approaches Presented at the E2S2 Symposium May 11th, 2011 New Orleans, LA...COVERED 00-00-2011 to 00-00-2011 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Climate Change Adaptation Approaches 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM...10/09).  One of the four priorities is to maintain readiness in the face of climate change .  Addressing Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability: a

  6. Climate Change Law

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Farber, D.A.; Peeters, Marjan

    2016-01-01

    This book brings together over seventy fifty authors for a comprehensive examination of the emerging global regime of climate change law. Despite the relative youth of climate change law, we can already begin to see the outlines of legal regimes addressing climate change mitigation and adaptation

  7. Assessment of Salinity Distributions and Residual Currents at the Northern Bay of Bengal considering Climate Change Impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Asad Hussain

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The overall objective of the study is to investigate the future salinity distributions and residual flow scenarios in the northern Bay of Bengal taking into consideration of the change in hydrological and meteorological parameters. Observed and projected meteorological data are employed to generate present and future scenarios in the Northern Bay of Bengal. Numerical experiments through a 3D hydrodynamic model show that both during the monsoon as well as during winter periods, residual currents in the Northern Bay of Bengal display an anti-clockwise circulation concentrating at the eastern part of the bay. The Swatch of No Ground appears to have an important influence on the circulation patterns. Future salinity distributions are calculated through employment of projected meteorological data from regional climate model (RCM experiments. It shows considerable increase in salinity level which may hamper the freshwater availability and ecological balance in the region in future.

  8. Rhodoliths in Brazil: Current knowledge and potential impacts of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Antunes Horta

    Full Text Available Abstract Rhodolith beds are important marine benthic ecosystems, representing oases of high biodiversity among sedimentary seabed environments. They are found frequently and abundantly, acting as major carbonate 'factories' and playing a key role in the biogeochemical cycling of carbonates in the South Atlantic. Rhodoliths are under threat due to global change (mainly related to ocean acidification and global warming and local stressors, such as fishing and coastal run-off. Here, we review different aspects of the biology of these organisms, highlighting the predicted effects of global change, considering the additional impact of local stressors. Ocean acidification (OA represents a particular threat that can reduce calcification or even promote the decalcification of these bioengineers, thus increasing the eco-physiological imbalance between calcareous and fleshy algae. OA should be considered, but this together with extreme events such as heat waves and storms, as main stressors of these ecosystems at the present time, will worsen in the future, especially if possible interactions with local stressors like coastal pollution are taken into consideration. Thus, in Brazil there is a serious need for starting monitoring programs and promote innovative experimental infrastructure in order to improve our knowledge of these rich environments, optimize management efforts and enhance the needed conservation initiatives.

  9. Climate change assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda A. Joyce

    2008-01-01

    The science associated with climate and its effects on ecosystems, economies, and social systems is developing rapidly. Climate change assessments can serve as an important synthesis of this science and provide the information and context for management and policy decisions on adaptation and mitigation. This topic paper describes the variety of climate change...

  10. Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...

  11. Weather it's Climate Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostrom, A.; Lashof, D.

    2004-12-01

    For almost two decades both national polls and in-depth studies of global warming perceptions have shown that people commonly conflate weather and global climate change. Not only are current weather events such as anecdotal heat waves, droughts or cold spells treated as evidence for or against global warming, but weather changes such as warmer weather and increased storm intensity and frequency are the consequences most likely to come to mind. Distinguishing weather from climate remains a challenge for many. This weather 'framing' of global warming may inhibit behavioral and policy change in several ways. Weather is understood as natural, on an immense scale that makes controlling it difficult to conceive. Further, these attributes contribute to perceptions that global warming, like weather, is uncontrollable. This talk presents an analysis of data from public opinion polls, focus groups, and cognitive studies regarding people's mental models of and 'frames' for global warming and climate change, and the role weather plays in these. This research suggests that priming people with a model of global warming as being caused by a "thickening blanket of carbon dioxide" that "traps heat" in the atmosphere solves some of these communications problems and makes it more likely that people will support policies to address global warming.

  12. Welfare impacts of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hof, Andries F.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change can affect well-being in poor economies more than previously shown if its effect on economic growth, and not only on current production, is considered. But this result does not necessarily suggest greater mitigation efforts are required.

  13. Adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn

    2011-01-01

    Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling...

  14. Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... kills over 400 000 people every year – mainly African children under 5 years old. The Aedes mosquito vector of dengue is also highly sensitive to climate conditions, and studies suggest that climate change is likely to continue ...

  15. Asking about climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise

    2014-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that climate change will strongly affect people across the globe. Likely impacts of and adaptations to climate change are drawing the attention of researchers from many disciplines. In adaptation research focus is often on perceptions of climate change...... and on vulnerability and adaptation strategies in a particular region or community. But how do we research the ways in which people experience changing climatic conditions, the processes of decision-making, the actual adaptation strategies carried out and the consequences of these for actors living and dealing...... with climate change? On the basis of a literature review of all articles published in Global Environmental Change between 2000 and 2012 that deal with human dimensions of climate change using qualitative methods this paper provides some answers but also raises some concerns. The period and length of fieldwork...

  16. Global vs climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, H.L.; Bach, M.C.; Goklany, I.M.

    1991-01-01

    The various agents of global change that will affect the state of natural resources 50-100 years from now are discussed. These include economic and population growth, technological progress, and climatic change. The importance of climatic change lies in its effects on natural resources and on human activities that depend on those resources. Other factors affecting those resources include the demand on those resources from an increasing population and from a growing economy, and a more efficient use of those resources that comes from technological changes and from the consequences of economic growth itself. It is shown that there is a considerable ability to adapt to climatic change, since humans already have an intrinsic ability to adapt to the wide variations in climates that already exist and since technological developments can make it easier to cope with climatic variability. It appears that agents other than climatic change are more significant to the future state of natural resources than climatic change. Criteria for selecting options for addressing climatic change are outlined. Technological change and economic growth are seen to be key response options, since the vulnerability to climatic change depends on economic resources and technological progress. Specific options to stimulate sustainable economic growth and technological progress are listed. 16 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  17. Climate change and marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Anthony J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Brander, Keith

    2012-01-01

    A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change...... ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC...

  18. Climate change: against despair

    OpenAIRE

    McKinnon, Catriona

    2014-01-01

    In the face of accelerating climate change and the parlous state of its politics, despair is tempting. This paper analyses two manifestations of despair about climate change related to (1) the inefficacy of personal emissions reductions, and (2) the inability to make a difference to climate change through personal emissions reductions. On the back of an analysis of despair as a loss of hope, the paper argues that the judgements grounding each form of despair are unsound. The paper concludes w...

  19. Functional and phylogenetic relatedness in temporary wetland invertebrates: current macroecological patterns and implications for future climatic change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruhí, Albert; Boix, Dani; Gascón, Stéphanie; Sala, Jordi; Batzer, Darold P

    2013-01-01

    vulnerable and often overlooked ecosystems will be affected by long-term climate change.

  20. Functional and phylogenetic relatedness in temporary wetland invertebrates: current macroecological patterns and implications for future climatic change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albert Ruhí

    embedded in these vulnerable and often overlooked ecosystems will be affected by long-term climate change.

  1. An overview of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masson-Delmotte, V.; Paillard, D.

    2004-01-01

    We describe briefly here the main mechanisms and time scales involved in natural and anthropogenic climate variability, based on quantitative paleo-climatic reconstructions from natural archives and climate model simulations: the large glacial-interglacial cycles of the last million years (the Quaternary), lasting typically a hundred thousand years, triggered by changes in the solar radiation received by the Earth due to its position around the Sun; the century-long climatic changes occurring during last glacial period and triggered by recurrent iceberg discharges of the large northern hemisphere ice caps, massive freshwater flux to the north Atlantic, and changes in the ocean heat transport. We show the strong coupling between past climatic changes and global biogeochemical cycles, namely here atmospheric greenhouse gases. We also discuss the decadal climatic fluctuations during the last thousand years, showing an unprecedented warming attributed to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. We show the range of atmospheric greenhouse concentrations forecasted for the end of the 21. century and the climate model predictions for global temperature changes during the 21. century. We also discuss the possible climatic changes at longer time scales involving the possibility of north Atlantic heat transport collapse (possibility of abrupt climate change), and the duration of the current interglacial period. (author)

  2. Climate Change and Conservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LEDIG, F. Thomas

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Conserving forest genetic resources and, indeed, preventing species extinctions will be complicated by the expected changes in climate projected for the next century and beyond. This paper uses case examples from rare spruces (Picea sp. from North America to discuss the interplay of conservation, genetics, and climate change. New models show how climate change will affect these spruces, making it necessary to relocate them if they are to survive, a tool known as assisted migration or, preferably, assisted colonization. The paper concludes with some speculation on the broader implications of climate change, and the relevance of conservation to preserving the necessary ecological services provided by forests.

  3. Chatham Islands Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mullan, B.; Salinger, J.; Thompson, C.; Ramsay, D.; Wild, M.

    2005-06-01

    This brief report provides guidance on climate change specific to the Chatham Islands, to complement the information recently produced for local government by the Ministry for the Environment in 'Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment: A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand' and 'Coastal Hazards and Climate Change: A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand'. These previous reports contain a lot of generic information on climate change, and how to assess associated risks, that is relevant to the Chatham Islands Council.

  4. Climate Change and Forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Omenda, T.O

    1997-01-01

    The causes for climatic change in the period between 3000 and 1250 BC was different from what present scenario portends. After industrialization, temperatures has arisen by 0.5 degrees centigrade every 100 years since factories started to spew out smoke. Over the last two centuries, the concentration of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by more than 25% from about 275ppm in the 18th Century to more than 350ppm at the present time while the current level is expected to double by the year 2050. The increase in Carbon Dioxide and together with other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will trap the sun's radiation causing the mean global temperatures to rise by between 1 degree and 5 degrees centigrade by 2050. The climatic change affects forestry in many ways for instance, temperatures determines the rate at which enzymes catalyze biochemical reactions while solar radiation provide the energy which drive light reactions in photosynthesis. On the other hand, water which is a component of climate is a universal solvent which enables plants to transport nutrients through the transpirational stream, and similarly transport photosynthates from the leave to all parts of the plants. It is a raw material for photosynthesis and important for maintaining turgidity, which is important for growth

  5. Climate change impact on the establishment and seasonal abundance of Invasive Mosquito Species: current state and future risk maps over southeast Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tagaris, Efthimios; -Eleni Sotiropoulou, Rafaella; Sotiropoulos, Andreas; Spanos, Ioannis; Milonas, Panayiotis; Michaelakis, Antonios

    2017-04-01

    Establishment and seasonal abundance of a region for Invasive Mosquito Species (IMS) are related to climatic parameters such as temperature and precipitation. In this work the current state is assessed using data from the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D) project over Greece and Italy for the development of current spatial risk databases of IMS. Results are validated from the installation of a prototype IMS monitoring device that has been designed and developed in the framework of the LIFE CONOPS project at key points across the two countries. Since climate models suggest changes in future temperature and precipitation rates, the future potentiality of IMS establishment and spread over Greece and Italy is assessed using the climatic parameters in 2050's provided by the NASA GISS GCM ModelE under the IPCC-A1B emissions scenarios. The need for regional climate projections in a finer grid size is assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to dynamically downscale GCM simulations. The estimated changes in the future meteorological parameters are combined with the observation data in order to estimate the future levels of the climatic parameters of interest. The final product includes spatial distribution maps presenting the future suitability of a region for the establishment and seasonal abundance of the IMS over Greece and Italy. Acknowledgement: LIFE CONOPS project "Development & demonstration of management plans against - the climate change enhanced - invasive mosquitoes in S. Europe" (LIFE12 ENV/GR/000466).

  6. Current state of glaciers in the tropical Andes: a multi-century perspective on glacier evolution and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabatel, A.; Francou, B.; Soruco, A.; Gomez, J.; Cáceres, B.; Ceballos, J. L.; Basantes, R.; Vuille, M.; Sicart, J.-E.; Huggel, C.; Scheel, M.; Lejeune, Y.; Arnaud, Y.; Collet, M.; Condom, T.; Consoli, G.; Favier, V.; Jomelli, V.; Galarraga, R.; Ginot, P.; Maisincho, L.; Mendoza, J.; Ménégoz, M.; Ramirez, E.; Ribstein, P.; Suarez, W.; Villacis, M.; Wagnon, P.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to provide the community with a comprehensive overview of the studies of glaciers in the tropical Andes conducted in recent decades leading to the current status of the glaciers in the context of climate change. In terms of changes in surface area and length, we show that the glacier retreat in the tropical Andes over the last three decades is unprecedented since the maximum extension of the Little Ice Age (LIA, mid-17th-early 18th century). In terms of changes in mass balance, although there have been some sporadic gains on several glaciers, we show that the trend has been quite negative over the past 50 yr, with a mean mass balance deficit for glaciers in the tropical Andes that is slightly more negative than the one computed on a global scale. A break point in the trend appeared in the late 1970s with mean annual mass balance per year decreasing from -0.2 m w.e. in the period 1964-1975 to -0.76 m w.e. in the period 1976-2010. In addition, even if glaciers are currently retreating everywhere in the tropical Andes, it should be noted that this is much more pronounced on small glaciers at low altitudes that do not have a permanent accumulation zone, and which could disappear in the coming years/decades. Monthly mass balance measurements performed in Bolivia, Ecuador and Colombia show that variability of the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean is the main factor governing variability of the mass balance at the decadal timescale. Precipitation did not display a significant trend in the tropical Andes in the 20th century, and consequently cannot explain the glacier recession. On the other hand, temperature increased at a significant rate of 0.10 °C decade-1 in the last 70 yr. The higher frequency of El Niño events and changes in its spatial and temporal occurrence since the late 1970s together with a warming troposphere over the tropical Andes may thus explain much of the recent dramatic shrinkage of glaciers in this part of the world.

  7. Climate change is predicted to alter the current pest status of Globodera pallida and G. rostochiensis in the United Kingdom

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jones, L.; Koehler, A.-K.; Trnka, Miroslav; Balek, Jan; Challinor, A. J.; Atkinson, H. J.; Urwin, P.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 23, č. 11 (2017), s. 4497-4507 ISSN 1354-1013 Institutional support: RVO:86652079 Keywords : climate change * Globodera pallida * Globodera rostochiensis * plant pathogens * potato cyst nematode * soil temperature simulations * soil-borne pest s Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7) Impact factor: 8.502, year: 2016

  8. Climate Change and Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chinowsky, P.; Arndt, Channing

    2012-01-01

    Decision-makers who are responsible for determining when and where infrastructure should be developed and/or enhanced are facing a new challenge with the emerging topic of climate change. The paper introduces a stressor–response methodology where engineering-based models are used as a basis...... four climate projection scenarios, the paper details how climate change response decisions may cost the Mozambican government in terms of maintenance costs and long-term roadstock inventory reduction. Through this approach the paper details how a 14% reduction in inventory loss can be achieved through...... the adoption of a proactive, design standard evolution approach to climate change....

  9. Climate and Global Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duplessy, J.C.; Pons, A.; Fantechi, R.

    1991-01-01

    The present volume contains the lessons delivered at the course held in Arles, France, on the subject Climate and Global Change: natural variability of the geosphere and biosphere systems, biogeochemical cycles and their perturbation by human activities, monitoring and forecasting global changes (satellite observations, modelling,...). Short presentations of students' own research activities are also proposed (climatic fluctuation in the Mediterranean area, climate/vegetation relations, etc.)

  10. Wine and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Ashenfelter, Orley; Storchmann, Karl

    2014-01-01

    In this article we provide an overview of the extensive literature on the impact of weather and climate on grapes and wine with the goal of describing how climate change is likely to affect their production. We start by discussing the physical impact of weather on vine phenology, berry composition and yields, and then survey the economic literature measuring the effects of temperature on wine quality, prices, costs and profits and how climate change will affect these. We also describe what ha...

  11. The Climate Change Regime

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pattberg, P.H.; Widerberg, O.E.

    2017-01-01

    In 1992, when the international community agreed on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the science of climate change was under development, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were by and large produced by developed countries, and the concentrations of CO2 in the

  12. Synopsis of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angela Jardine; Jonathan Long

    2014-01-01

    Changes in climate can interact with other stressors to transform ecosystems and alter the services those ecosystems provide. This synopsis presents themes that run through the synthesis report regarding the impacts of a changing climate on the forests and waters of the synthesis area as well as long-term, broad-scale, science-based strategies to promote system...

  13. Future local climate unlike currently observed anywhere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahinden, Fabienne; Fischer, Erich M.; Knutti, Reto

    2017-08-01

    The concept of spatial climate analogs, that is identifying a place with a present-day climate similar to the projections of a place of interest, is a promising method for visualizing and communicating possible effects of climate change. We show that when accounting for seasonal cycles of both temperature and precipitation, it is impossible to find good analogs for projections at many places across the world. For substantial land fractions, primarily in the tropics and subtropics, there are no analogs anywhere with current seasonal cycles of temperature and precipitation matching their projected future conditions. This implies that these places experience the emergence of novel climates. For 1.5 °C global warming about 15% and for 2 °C warming about 21% of the global land is projected to experience novel climates, whereas for a 4 °C warming the corresponding novel climates may emerge on more than a third of the global land fraction. Similar fractions of today’s climates, mainly found in the tropics, subtropics and polar north, are anticipated to disappear in the future. Note that the exact quantification of the land fraction is sensitive to the threshold selection. Novel and disappearing climates may have serious consequences for impacts that are sensitive to the full seasonal cycle of temperature and precipitation. For individual seasons, however, spatial analogs may still be a powerful tool for climate change communication.

  14. The climate is changing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfsen, Knut H.

    2001-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has finalized its Third Assessment Report. Among its conclusions is that we must expect continued changes in our climate, despite our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Planning for and adapting to climate change are therefore necessary. As a starting point, CICERO has written this short note on expected impacts in Norway. The main conclusions are that (1) Adaptation to climate change is necessary (2) Substantial impacts are expected for several important sectors in Norway (3) The local and central authorities should now consider and start planning for adaptation measures. (4) There is still a need for more knowledge about potential impacts of climate change in Norway. (author)

  15. Climate for change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newell, P.

    2000-01-01

    Climate for Change: Non-State Actors and the Global Politics of the Greenhouse provides a challenging explanation of the forces that have shaped the international global warming debate. Unlike existing books on the politics of climate change, this book concentrates on how non-stage actors, such as scientific, environmental and industry groups, as opposed to governmental organisations, affect political outcomes in global fora on climate change. It also provides insights in to the role of the media in influencing the agenda. The book draws on a range of analytical approaches to assess and explain the influence of these non-governmental organisations in the course of global climate change politics. The book will be of interest to all researchers and policy-makers associated with climate change, and will be used on university courses in international relations, politics and environmental studies. (Author)

  16. Schneider lecture: From climate change impacts to climate change risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, C. B.

    2014-12-01

    Steve Schneider was a strong proponent of considering the entire range of possible climate-change outcomes. He wrote and spoke frequently about the importance of low probability/high consequence outcomes as well as most likely outcomes. He worked tirelessly on communicating the risks from overlapping stressors. Technical and conceptual issues have made it difficult for Steve's vision to reach maturity in mainstream climate-change research, but the picture is changing rapidly. The concept of climate-change risk, considering both probability and consequence, is central to the recently completed IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and the concept frames much of the discussion about future research agendas. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks is important for five core reasons. First, conceptualizing the issue as being about probabilities builds a bridge between current climate variability and future climate change. Second, a formulation based on risks highlights the fact that climate impacts occur primarily in extremes. For historical variability and future impacts, the real concern is the conditions under which things break and systems fail, namely, in the extremes. Third, framing the challenge as one of managing risks puts a strong emphasis on exploring the full range of possible outcomes, including low-probability, high/consequence outcomes. Fourth, explaining climate change as a problem in managing risks links climate change to a wide range of sophisticated risk management tools and strategies that underpin much of modern society. Fifth, the concept of climate change as a challenge in managing risks helps cement the understanding that climate change is a threat multiplier, adding new dimensions and complexity to existing and emerging problems. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks creates an important but difficult agenda for research. The emphasis needs to shift from most likely outcomes to most risky outcomes, considering the full

  17. Evaluating simplistic methods to understand current distributions and forecast distribution changes under climate change scenarios: an example with coypu (Myocastor coypus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine S. Jarnevich

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Invasive species provide a unique opportunity to evaluate factors controlling biogeographic distributions; we can consider introduction success as an experiment testing suitability of environmental conditions. Predicting potential distributions of spreading species is not easy, and forecasting potential distributions with changing climate is even more difficult. Using the globally invasive coypu (Myocastor coypus [Molina, 1782], we evaluate and compare the utility of a simplistic ecophysiological based model and a correlative model to predict current and future distribution. The ecophysiological model was based on winter temperature relationships with nutria survival. We developed correlative statistical models using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling and biologically relevant climate data with a global extent. We applied the ecophysiological based model to several global circulation model (GCM predictions for mid-century. We used global coypu introduction data to evaluate these models and to explore a hypothesized physiological limitation, finding general agreement with known coypu distribution locally and globally and support for an upper thermal tolerance threshold. Global circulation model based model results showed variability in coypu predicted distribution among GCMs, but had general agreement of increasing suitable area in the USA. Our methods highlighted the dynamic nature of the edges of the coypu distribution due to climate non-equilibrium, and uncertainty associated with forecasting future distributions. Areas deemed suitable habitat, especially those on the edge of the current known range, could be used for early detection of the spread of coypu populations for management purposes. Combining approaches can be beneficial to predicting potential distributions of invasive species now and in the future and in exploring hypotheses of factors controlling distributions.

  18. Struggle against climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    This document first proposes a presentation of the cross-cutting policy defined for the struggle against climate change. It notably presents its various programs. It describes the implemented strategy which aims at reducing on a short term greenhouse gas emissions with the available technologies, at making the climate challenge a driver for economic competitiveness, at developing the knowledge on climatic change and at preparing the necessary adaptation measures, and at stating on the international scene the French commitment and its dynamic role in front of the climate challenge

  19. Communities under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

  20. Climate change and future adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lučka Kajfež Bogataj

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a summary of the current scientific understanding of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC on the natural and anthropogenic drivers of changes in global climate. It presents an overview of observed changes in the climate system and their relationships with physical processes as well as an overview of projections for future climate changes. A summary of observed climate changes in Slovenia in the last decades is given and future projections are discussed. Europe has warmed by almost 1°C in the last century, faster than the global average. Precipitation has significantly increased in northern Europe, whereas drying has been observed in the Mediterranean. Continuing the observed trend, average precipitation as well as extreme precipitation are very likely to further increase in most of northern Europe whereas precipitation is very likely to decrease in the Mediterranean. The reduction of precipitation in summer in Slovenia is expected to have serious effects, e.g. more frequent droughts, with considerable impacts on horticulture and the availability of water. Adaptation can reduce vulnerability to climate variability and change. This paper also discusses the appropriate responses to climate change from the mitigation and adaptation points of view.

  1. Climate for Change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    ). The thesis concludes that the characteristics of climate change governance are shaped locally through normative and cultural-cognitive mechanisms and strategies for building legitimacy in the integration process. Integration across sectoral departments in the city administration is found to be constrained...... the constraints on climate change planning at the local level are absent. To understand these constraints, this PhD thesis investigates the institutional dynamics that influence the process of the integration of climate change into planning practices at the local level in Denmark. The examination of integration...

  2. Biodiversity and Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onyango, J.C.O.; Ojoo-Massawa, E.; Abira, M.A.

    1997-01-01

    Biological diversity or biodiversity is crucial for ecological stability including regulation of climate change, recreational and medicinal use; and scientific advancement. Kenya like other developing countries, especially, those in Sub-Saharan Africa, will continue to depend greatly on her biodiversity for present and future development. This important resource must, therefore be conserved. This chapter presents an overview of Kenya's biodiversity; its importance and initiatives being undertaken for its conservation; and in detail, explores issues of climate change and biodiversity, concentrating on impacts of climate change

  3. Witnesses of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-11-01

    After having evoked the process of climate change, the effect of greenhouse gas emissions, the evolution of average temperatures in France since 1900, and indicated the various interactions and impacts of climate change regarding air quality, water resources, food supply, degradation and loss of biodiversity, deforestation, desertification, this publication, while quoting various testimonies (from a mountain refuge guardian, a wine maker, a guide in La Reunion, an IFREMER bio-statistician engineer, and a representative of health professionals), describes the various noticed impacts of climate change on the environment in mountain chains, on agriculture, on sea level rise, on overseas biodiversity, and on health

  4. Climate change governance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knieling, Joerg [HafenCity Univ. Hamburg (Germany). Urban Planning and Regional Development; Leal Filho, Walter (eds.) [HAW Hamburg (Germany). Research and Transfer Centre Applications of Life Science

    2013-07-01

    Climate change is a cause for concern both globally and locally. In order for it to be tackled holistically, its governance is an important topic needing scientific and practical consideration. Climate change governance is an emerging area, and one which is closely related to state and public administrative systems and the behaviour of private actors, including the business sector, as well as the civil society and non-governmental organisations. Questions of climate change governance deal both with mitigation and adaptation whilst at the same time trying to devise effective ways of managing the consequences of these measures across the different sectors. Many books have been produced on general matters related to climate change, such as climate modelling, temperature variations, sea level rise, but, to date, very few publications have addressed the political, economic and social elements of climate change and their links with governance. This book will address this gap. Furthermore, a particular feature of this book is that it not only presents different perspectives on climate change governance, but it also introduces theoretical approaches and brings these together with practical examples which show how main principles may be implemented in practice.

  5. Chemistry and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernier, Jean-Claude; Brasseur, Guy; Brechet, Yves; Candel, Sebastien; Cazenave, Anny; Courtillot, Vincent; Fontecave, Marc; Garnier, Emmanuel; Goebel, Philippe; Legrand, Jack; Legrand, Michel; Le Treut, Herve; Mauberger, Pascal; Dinh-Audouin, Minh-Thu; Olivier, Daniele; Rigny, Paul; Bigot, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    In its first part, this collective publication addresses the decennial and centuries-old variations of climate: perspectives and implications of climate change for the 21. century, questions remaining about the understanding of climate change from its sources to its modelling, extreme climate variations and societies during the last millennium. The contributions of the second part outline how chemistry is a tool to study climate change: ice chemistry as an archive of our past environment, observations and predictions on sea level rise, relationship between atmosphere chemistry and climate. The third set of contributions discusses the transformation of the energy system for a cleaner atmosphere and the management of the climate risk: the chemical processing of CO 2 , actions of chemical companies to support the struggle against climate change, relationship between barrel price and renewable energies, relationship between grid complexity and green energy. The last part outlines the role chemistry can have to be able to do without fossil fuels: chemistry in front of challenges of transformation of the energy system, the use of micro-algae, the use of hydrogen as a vector of energy transition

  6. Olivine and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuiling, R.D.

    2012-01-01

    The greenhouse effect, thanks mainly to the water vapor in our atmosphere, has created a livable climate on Earth. Climate change, however, may potentially have dire consequences. It is generally assumed that the rise in CO2 levels in the atmosphere is the main culprit, although several other

  7. Climate change; Le changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    Based on contributions on 120 French and foreign scientists representing different disciplines (mathematics, physics, mechanics, chemistry, biology, medicine, and so on), this report proposes an overview of the scientific knowledge and debate about climate change. It discusses the various indicators of climate evolution (temperatures, ice surfaces, sea level, biological indicators) and the various factors which may contribute to climate evolution (greenhouse gases, solar radiation). It also comments climate evolutions in the past as they can be investigated through some geological, thermal or geochemical indicators. Then, the authors describe and discuss the various climate mechanisms: solar activity, oceans, ice caps, greenhouse gases. In a third part, the authors discuss the different types of climate models which differ by the way they describe processes, and the current validation process for these models

  8. Forest and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    After having recalled the challenges the French forest has to face, and a brief overview of the status of forests in the world, this report proposes an overview of actions which are implemented to strengthen the carbon sequestration role of forests, at the international level and in France. It discusses the distribution of carbon, the forest carbon stocks (in the world, Europe and France), the actions against climate change, the costs and financing of the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the forest sector. It comments the status of international negotiations and how forests are taken into account. It presents the French forest and wood sector (characteristics of the forest in metropolitan France and overseas, wood as material and as energy). It recalls the commitment of the Grenelle de l'Environnement, and indicates the current forest studies

  9. Climate change response framework overview: Chapter 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chris Swanston; Maria Janowiak; Patricia. Butler

    2012-01-01

    Managers currently face the immense challenge of anticipating the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems and then developing and applying management responses for adapting forests to future conditions. The Climate Change Response Framework (CCRF) is a highly collaborative approach to helping land managers understand the potential effects of climate change on...

  10. Current and Future Niche of North and Central American Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moo-Llanes, David; Ibarra-Cerdeña, Carlos N.; Rebollar-Téllez, Eduardo A.; Ibáñez-Bernal, Sergio; González, Camila; Ramsey, Janine M.

    2013-01-01

    Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases. PMID:24069478

  11. Climate Change Adaptation Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    A list of on-line training modules to help local government officials and those interested in water management issues better understand how the changing climate affects the services and resources they care about

  12. Global Climatic Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houghton, Richard A.; Woodwell, George M.

    1989-01-01

    Cites some of the evidence which suggests that the production of carbon dioxide and methane from human activities has begun to change the climate. Describes some measures which should be taken to stop or slow this progression. (RT)

  13. Global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levine, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Present processes of global climate change are reviewed. The processes determining global temperature are briefly described and the concept of effective temperature is elucidated. The greenhouse effect is examined, including the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. 18 refs

  14. Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hudecz, Adriána

    -operation and research into the common problems of the Northern Periphery. This report is an output of the ROADEX “Implementing Accessibility” project (2009-2012). It gives a summary of the results of research into adaptation measures to combat climate change effects on low volume roads in the Northern Periphery....... The research was carried out between January 2000 and March 2012. One of the biggest challenges that mankind has to face is the prospect of climate change resulting from emissions of greenhouse gases. These gases trap energy in the atmosphere and cause global surface temperatures to rise. This warming in turn...... causes changes in other climatic variables such as rainfall, humidity and wind speed that impact on the functioning of infrastructure such road networks. This paper discusses the climate changes predicted by the world’s meteorological organisations and considers how these may impact on the public...

  15. Climate change and compensation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint; Flanagan, Tine Bech

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a case for compensation of actual harm from climate change in the poorest countries. First, it is shown that climate change threatens to reverse the fight to eradicate poverty. Secondly, it is shown how the problems raised in the literature for compensation to some extent...... are based on misconceptions and do not apply to compensation of present actual harm. Finally, two arguments are presented to the effect that, in so far as developed countries accept a major commitment to mitigate climate change, they should also accept a commitment to address or compensate actual harm from...... climate change. The first argument appeals to the principle that if it is an injustice to cause risk of incurring harm in the future, then it is also an injustice to cause a similar harm now. The second argument appeals to the principle that if there is moral reason to reduce the risk of specific harms...

  16. Responsibility and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Jamieson, Dale

    2015-01-01

    Ibegin by providing some background to conceptions of responsibility. I note the extent of disagreement in this area, the diverse and cross-cutting distinctions that are deployed, and the relative neglect of some important problems. These facts make it difficult to attribute responsibility for climate change, but so do some features of climate change itself which I go on to illuminate. Attributions of responsibility are often contested sites because such attributions are fundamentally pragmat...

  17. Climate change. Accelerating extinction risk from climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urban, Mark C

    2015-05-01

    Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change-induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  18. Climate change - the impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reysset, Bertrand; Billes-Garabedian, Laurent; Henique, Julien; Pascal, Mathilde; Pirard, Philippe; Motreff, Yvon; Barbault, Robert; Weber, Jacques; Gate, Philippe; Salagnac, Jean-Luc; Desplat, Julien; Kounkou-Arnaud, Raphaelle

    2012-01-01

    This special dossier about the impacts of climate change is made of 6 contributions dealing with: the mitigation of climate effects and how to deal with them (Bertrand Reysset); how to dare and transmit (Laurent Billes-Garabedian); littoral risks, the Pas-de-Calais example (Julien Henique); extreme meteorological events and health impacts (Mathilde Pascal, Philippe Pirard, Yvon Motreff); Biodiversity and climate: the janus of global change (Robert Barbault, Jacques Weber); adapting agriculture to dryness and temperatures (Philippe Gate); Paris and the future heats of the year 2100 (Jean-Luc Salagnac, Julien Desplat, Raphaelle Kounkou-Arnaud)

  19. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Sean A. Parks

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not...

  20. Climate change is predicted to alter the current pest status of Globodera pallida and G. rostochiensis in the United Kingdom

    OpenAIRE

    Jones, LM; Koehler, A-K; Trnka, M; Balek, J; Challinor, AJ; Atkinson, HJ; Urwin, PE

    2017-01-01

    The potato cyst nematodes Globodera pallida and G. rostochiensis are economically important plant pathogens causing losses to UK potato harvests estimated at £50m/ year. Implications of climate change on their future pest status have not been fully considered. Here, we report growth of female G. pallida and G. rostochiensis over the range 15 to 25 °C. Females per plant and their fecundity declined progressively with temperatures above 17.5 °C for G. pallida, whilst females per plant were opti...

  1. Observed climate change hotspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turco, M.; Palazzi, E.; Hardenberg, J.; Provenzale, A.

    2015-05-01

    We quantify climate change hotspots from observations, taking into account the differences in precipitation and temperature statistics (mean, variability, and extremes) between 1981-2010 and 1951-1980. Areas in the Amazon, the Sahel, tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and central eastern Asia emerge as primary observed hotspots. The main contributing factors are the global increase in mean temperatures, the intensification of extreme hot-season occurrence in low-latitude regions and the decrease of precipitation over central Africa. Temperature and precipitation variability have been substantially stable over the past decades, with only a few areas showing significant changes against the background climate variability. The regions identified from the observations are remarkably similar to those defined from projections of global climate models under a "business-as-usual" scenario, indicating that climate change hotspots are robust and persistent over time. These results provide a useful background to develop global policy decisions on adaptation and mitigation priorities over near-time horizons.

  2. Climate change - global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciconkov, Risto

    2001-01-01

    An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

  3. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Dulen, Deanna M; Ebersole, Joseph L; Jackson, Stephen T; Lundquist, Jessica D; Millar, Constance I; Maher, Sean P; Monahan, William B; Nydick, Koren R; Redmond, Kelly T; Sawyer, Sarah C; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

  4. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  5. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Toni L.; Jackson, Stephen T.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

  6. Fair adaptation to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paavola, Jouni; Adger, W. Neil

    2006-01-01

    This article identifies social justice dilemmas associated with the necessity to adapt to climate change, examines how they are currently addressed by the climate change regime, and proposes solutions to overcome prevailing gaps and ambiguities. We argue that the key justice dilemmas of adaptation include responsibility for climate change impacts, the level and burden sharing of assistance to vulnerable countries for adaptation, distribution of assistance between recipient countries and adaptation measures, and fair participation in planning and making decisions on adaptation. We demonstrate how the climate change regime largely omits responsibility but makes a general commitment to assistance. However, the regime has so far failed to operationalise assistance and has made only minor progress towards eliminating obstacles for fair participation. We propose the adoption of four principles for fair adaptation in the climate change regime. These include avoiding dangerous climate change, forward-looking responsibility, putting the most vulnerable first and equal participation of all. We argue that a safe maximum standard of 400-500 ppm of CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere and a carbon tax of $20-50 per carbon equivalent ton could provide the initial instruments for operationalising the principles. (author)

  7. Poverty and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vink, G.; Franco, E.; Fuckar, N. S.; Kalmbach, E. R.; Kayatta, E.; Lankester, K.; Rothschild, R. E.; Sarma, A.; Wall, M. L.

    2008-05-01

    The poor are disproportionately vulnerable to environmental change because they have the least amount of resources with which to adapt, and they live in areas (e.g. flood plains, low-lying coastal areas, and marginal drylands) that are particularly vulnerable to the manifestations of climate change. By quantifying the various environmental, economic, and social factors that can contribute to poverty, we identify populations that are most vulnerable to poverty and poverty traps due to environmental change. We define vulnerability as consisting of risk (probability of event and exposed elements), resiliency, and capacity to respond. Resiliency captures the social system's ability to absorb a natural disaster while retaining the same basic structure, organization, and ways of functioning, as well as its general capacity to adapt to stress and change. Capacity to respond is a surrogate for technical skills, institutional capabilities, and efficacy within countries and their economies. We use a "climate change multiplier" to account for possible increases in the frequency and severity of natural events due to climate change. Through various analytical methods, we quantify the social, political, economic, and environmental factors that contribute to poverty or poverty traps. These data sets are then used to determine vulnerability through raster multiplication in geospatial analysis. The vulnerability of a particular location to climate change is then mapped, with areas of high vulnerability clearly delineated. The success of this methodology indicates that it is indeed possible to quantify the effects of climate change on global vulnerability to natural disasters, and can be used as a mechanism to identify areas where proactive measures, such as improving adaptation or capacity to respond, can reduce the humanitarian and economic impacts of climate change.

  8. Topologies of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is quickly becoming a ubiquitous socionatural reality, mediating extremes of sociospatial scale from the bodily to the planetary. Although environmentalism invites us to ‘think globally and act locally', the meaning of these scalar designations remains ambiguous. This paper explores...... the topological presuppositions of social theory in the context of global climate change, asking how carbon emissions ‘translate' into various sociomaterial forms. Staging a meeting between Tim Ingold's phenomenology of globes and spheres and the social topologies of actor-network theory (ANT), the paper advances...... a ‘relational-scalar' analytics of spatial practices, technoscience, and power. As technoscience gradually constructs a networked global climate, this ‘grey box' comes to circulate within fluid social spaces, taking on new shades as it hybridizes knowledges, symbols, and practices. Global climates thus come...

  9. The climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    In order to take stock on the climatic change situation and initiatives at the beginning of 2006, the INES (National Institute on the Solar Energy) proposes this special document. It presents the Montreal conference of December 2005, realized to reinforced the actions of the international community against the greenhouse gases. The technical decisions decided at this conference are detailed. The document discusses also the causes and consequences of the climatic warming, the intervention sectors and the actions possibilities. (A.L.B.)

  10. Climate change impacts: birds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tomotani, B.M.; Ramakers, J.J.C.; Gienapp, P.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change can affect populations and species in various ways. Rising temperatures can shift geographical distributions and lead to (phenotypic or genetic) changes in traits, mostly phenology, which may affect demography. Most of these effects are well documented in birds. For example, the

  11. Evaporation and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandsma, T.

    1993-01-01

    In this article the influence of climate change on evaporation is discussed. The emphasis is on open water evaporation. Three methods for calculating evaporation are compared considering only changes in temperature and factors directly dependent on temperature. The Penman-method is used to

  12. The Earth's Changing Climate

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    GENERAL I ARTICLE. The Earth's Changing Climate. Man-Made Changes and Their Consequences. PKDas is a former Director. General of the Meteoro- logical Department of. India. After retiring in. 1983, he taught Meteorolo- gy at the University of. Nairobi in Kenya (1983·85) and later at the Indian. Institute of Technology.

  13. Turning points in climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Werners, Saskia Elisabeth; van Slobbe, Erik; Bölscher, Tobias; Oost, Albert; Pfenninger, Stefan; Trombi, Giacomo; Bindi, Marco; Moriondo, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Concerned decision makers increasingly pose questions as to whether current management practices are able to cope with climate change and increased climate variability. This signifies a shift in the framing of climate change from asking what its potential impacts are to asking whether it induces

  14. Turning points in climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Werners, Saskia Elisabeth; Slobbe, van Erik; Bölscher, Tobias; Oost, Albert; Pfenninger, Stefan; Trombi, Giacomo; Bindi, Marco; Moriondo, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Concerned decision makers increasingly pose questions as to whether current management practices are able to cope with climate change and increased climate variability. This signifies a shift in the framing of climate change from asking what its potential impacts are to asking whether it induces

  15. Groundwater and climate change research scoping study

    OpenAIRE

    Jackson, C.R.; Cheetham, M.; Guha, P.

    2006-01-01

    This scoping study has reviewed much of the published literature in the field of climate change and groundwater research. Whilst it is not exhaustive with regard to groundwater quality issues, most of the published literature relating to climate change and groundwater resources, particularly in the UK, is covered. Further work is required to identify current research needs relating to the effects of climate change on groundwater quality. The study of the effects of climate chan...

  16. Regional climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-01-01

    Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

  17. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toni Lyn Morelli; Christopher Daly; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Deanna M. Dulen; Joseph L. Ebersole; Stephen T. Jackson; Jessica D. Lundquist; Connie Millar; Sean P. Maher; William B. Monahan; Koren R. Nydick; Kelly T. Redmond; Sarah C. Sawyer; Sarah Stock; Steven R. Beissinger

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that...

  18. Ocean Observations of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Don

    2016-01-01

    The ocean influences climate by storing and transporting large amounts of heat, freshwater, and carbon, and exchanging these properties with the atmosphere. About 93% of the excess heat energy stored by the earth over the last 50 years is found in the ocean. More than three quarters of the total exchange of water between the atmosphere and the earth's surface through evaporation and precipitation takes place over the oceans. The ocean contains 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere and is at present acting to slow the rate of climate change by absorbing one quarter of human emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, cement production, deforestation and other land use change.Here I summarize the observational evidence of change in the ocean, with an emphasis on basin- and global-scale changes relevant to climate. These include: changes in subsurface ocean temperature and heat content, evidence for regional changes in ocean salinity and their link to changes in evaporation and precipitation over the oceans, evidence of variability and change of ocean current patterns relevant to climate, observations of sea level change and predictions over the next century, and biogeochemical changes in the ocean, including ocean acidification.

  19. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change ref...

  20. Climate change and ecological public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Benny

    2015-02-17

    Climate change has been identified as a serious threat to human health, associated with the sustainability of current practices and lifestyles. Nurses should expand their health promotion role to address current and emerging threats to health from climate change and to address ecological public health. This article briefly outlines climate change and the concept of ecological public health, and discusses a 2012 review of the role of the nurse in health promotion.

  1. Market Strategies for Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J. [Business School, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2004-06-01

    The issue of climate change has attracted increasing business attention in the past decade. Whereas companies initially aimed primarily at influencing the policy debate, corporate strategies increasingly include economic responses. Existing classifications for climate change strategies however still reflect the political, non-market components. Using empirical information from the largest multinational companies worldwide, this article examines current market responses, focusing on the drivers (threats and opportunities) and the actions being taken by companies to address climate change. It also develops a typology of climate strategies that addresses the market dimensions, covering both the aim (strategic intent) and the degree of cooperation (form of organisation). The aim turns out to be either innovation or compensation, while the organisational arrangements to reach this objective can be oriented at the company level (internal), at companies' own supply chain (vertical) or at cooperation with other companies (competitors or companies in other sectors - horizontal). The typology can assist managers in deciding about the strategic option(s) they want to choose regarding climate change, also based on the insights offered by the paper about the current state of activities of other companies worldwide.

  2. Climate change: Factors and forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, W.R.

    1990-01-01

    An overview is presented of global climatic change. The greenhouse effect is an established physical phenomena. The reradiative effects of various anthropogenic gases are scientifically demonstrable, and the increasing concentration of such gases in the atmosphere is irrefutable. The delinquent information is the magnitude of the agravated greenhouse effect (AGE)-induced climatic change, the temporal pace of the change and its spatial distribution. The pace of the climatic change implied by many of the general circulation model (GCM) estimates is for a northern hemispheric warming 10-50 times faster than the change since the last ice age. At a relatively aggregated representation, researching the impact of climate change involves estimating energy use and greenhouse gas atmospheric retention, climate modeling and socio-economic impact models. Recognizing that certain of the impacts of anthropogenic gasses will prove to be cumulative, non-reversible and synergistic, it would be prudent to examine mitigating options for immediate implementation. Given the current degree of scientific uncertainty, response priorities would be on the no-regrets or covering-the-bets options. 14 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  3. Energy and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-15

    Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

  4. How Does Climate Change Affect Biodiversity?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bastos Araujo, Miguel; Rahbek, Carsten

    2006-01-01

    The most recent and complex bioclimate models excel at describing species' current distributions. Yet, it is unclear which models will best predict how climate change will affect their future distributions.......The most recent and complex bioclimate models excel at describing species' current distributions. Yet, it is unclear which models will best predict how climate change will affect their future distributions....

  5. Adapting to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constance I. Millar; Christopher W. Swanston; David L. Peterson

    2014-01-01

    Federal agencies have led the development of adaptation principles and tools in forest ecosystems over the past decade. Successful adaptation efforts generally require organizations to: (1) develop science-management partnerships, (2) provide education on climate change science, (3) provide a toolkit of methods and processes for vulnerability assessment and adaptation...

  6. Climate change and schools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sheffield, Perry E.; Uijttewaal, Simone A.M.; Stewart, James; Galvez, Maida P.

    2017-01-01

    The changing climate is creating additional challenges in maintaining a healthy school environment in the United States (US) where over 50 million people, mostly children, spend approximately a third of their waking hours. Chronic low prioritization of funds and resources to support environmental

  7. Climate change reference guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    At the heart of climate change is the greenhouse effect, in which molecules of various gases trap heat in Earths atmosphere and keep it warm enough to support life. Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) are an important part of Ea...

  8. DTU Climate Change Technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    During 2008 and 2009, DTU held a workshop series focusing on assessment of and adaption to climate changes as well as on mitigation of green house gasses. In the workshops, a total of 1500 scientists, government officials and business leaders have outlined scenarios for technology development...

  9. Climate Change? When? Where?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boon, Helen

    2009-01-01

    Regional Australian students were surveyed to explore their understanding and knowledge of the greenhouse effect, ozone depletion and climate change. Results were compared with a parallel study undertaken in 1991 in a regional UK city. The comparison was conducted to investigate whether more awareness and understanding of these issues is…

  10. Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene climate evolution controlled by sea-level change, Leeuwin Current, and Australian Monsoon in the Northwestern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishiwa, T.; Yokoyama, Y.; McHugh, C.; Reuning, L.; Gallagher, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    The transition from cold to warm conditions during the last deglaciation influenced climate variability in the Indian Ocean and Pacific as a result of submerge of continental shelf and variations in the Indonesian Throughflow and Australian Monsoon. The shallow continental shelf (Program Expedition 356 Indonesian Throughflow drilled in the northwestern Australian shallow continental shelf and recovered an interval from the Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene in Site U1461. Radiocarbon dating on macrofossils, foraminifera, and bulk organic matter provided a precise age-depth model, leading to high-resolved paleoclimate reconstruction. X-ray elemental analysis results are interpreted as an indicator of sedimentary environmental changes. The upper 20-m part of Site U1461 apparently records the climate transition from the LGM to Holocene in the northwestern Australia, which could be associated with sea-level change, Leeuwin Current activity, and the Australian Monsoon.

  11. Climate indices of Iran under climate change

    OpenAIRE

    alireza kochaki; mehdi nasiry; gholamali kamali

    2009-01-01

    Global warming will affect all climatic variables and particularly rainfall patterns. The purpose of present investigation was to predict climatic parameters of Iran under future climate change and to compare them with the present conditions. For this reason, UKMO General Circulation Model was used for the year 2025 and 2050. By running the model, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and also maximum monthly rainfall for the representative climate stations were calculated and finally the e...

  12. Simulated impacts of climate change on current farming locations of striped catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus; Sauvage) in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Anh L; Dang, Vinh H; Bosma, Roel H; Verreth, Johan A J; Leemans, Rik; De Silva, Sena S

    2014-12-01

    In Vietnam, culturing striped catfish makes an important contribution to the Mekong Delta's economy. Water level rise during rainy season and salt intrusion during dry season affect the water exchange and quality for this culture. Sea level rise as a consequence of climate change will worsen these influences. In this study, water level rise and salt water intrusion for three sea level rise (SLR) scenarios (i.e., +30, +50, and +75 cm) were simulated. The results showed that at SLR +50, the 3-m-flood level would spread downstream and threaten farms located in AnGiang, DongThap and CanTho provinces. Rising salinity levels for SLR +75 would reduce the window appropriate for the culture in SocTrang and BenTre provinces, and in TienGiang's coastal districts. Next to increasing dikes to reduce the impacts, the most tenable and least disruptive option to the farming community would be to shift to a salinity tolerant strain of catfish.

  13. Microbial Contamination Detection in Water Resources: Interest of Current Optical Methods, Trends and Needs in the Context of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aude-Valérie Jung

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Microbial pollution in aquatic environments is one of the crucial issues with regard to the sanitary state of water bodies used for drinking water supply, recreational activities and harvesting seafood due to a potential contamination by pathogenic bacteria, protozoa or viruses. To address this risk, microbial contamination monitoring is usually assessed by turbidity measurements performed at drinking water plants. Some recent studies have shown significant correlations of microbial contamination with the risk of endemic gastroenteresis. However the relevance of turbidimetry may be limited since the presence of colloids in water creates interferences with the nephelometric response. Thus there is a need for a more relevant, simple and fast indicator for microbial contamination detection in water, especially in the perspective of climate change with the increase of heavy rainfall events. This review focuses on the one hand on sources, fate and behavior of microorganisms in water and factors influencing pathogens’ presence, transportation and mobilization, and on the second hand, on the existing optical methods used for monitoring microbiological risks. Finally, this paper proposes new ways of research.

  14. Africa and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toulmin, Camilla; Huq, Saleemul

    2006-10-15

    Remember the scenes from New Orleans of flooded streets and scavenging people? One year on and little progress is evident in achieving the step-change needed in controlling greenhouse gases. Hurricane Katrina showed only too vividly the massive power of natural forces combined with inadequate preparation. The flood waters washed away and exposed fully the lack of planning and low priority given to securing life and livelihoods, especially of the more vulnerable groups in the community. If this is what a whirlwind can bring in the southern USA, what might we reap in further storms and droughts tomorrow in poorer parts of the world? New research findings point to the likelihood of larger, faster and more substantial changes to our climate system. The African continent is particularly vulnerable to adverse changes in climate, the evidence for which is becoming more and more stark.

  15. Climate change and coasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schellnhuber, H.J.; Sterr, H.

    1993-01-01

    The investigation of climatic processes and behaviour examines the effects of climatic changes on human beings and the surrounding environment. The authors discuss, in a wide-subject perspective, the regional impacts of the greenhouse effect, increase of the sea level, and changed conditions of both precipitation and wind using the North and Baltic Sea as examples. In this effort, questions dealing with changes of water level, motion and (disturbance) of the sea and morphodynamic in the coastal apron, in reference to requirements on a future protection of the shore, are handled. In addition, not only the aspects of ecosystem-orientated adaption in the strip of land between the continent northern islands 'Wattenmeer' and ground landscape (Bodenlandschaft) are taken into consideration, but also the impact of these on human beings and their interest to use the coastal regions. (orig.). 102 figs., 9 tabs [de

  16. Western water and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris

    2015-12-01

    The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northern-most West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries

  17. Integrated assessment of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgan, M.G.

    1994-01-01

    Many researchers are working on all the separate parts of the climate problem. The objective of integrated assessment is to put the results from this work together in order to look carefully at the big picture so as to: (1) keep a proper sense of perspective about the problem, since climate change will occur in the presence of many other natural and human changes; (2) develop the understanding necessary to support informed decision making by many different key public and private actors around the world; and (3) assure that the type and mix of climate-related research that is undertaken will be as useful as possible to decisions makers in both the near and long term. This paper outlines a set of design guidelines for formulating integrated assessment programs and projects and then outlines some of the current problems and opportunities. Selected points are illustrated by drawing on results from the integrated assessment research now in progress at Carnegie Mellon University

  18. Professional implications of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyd, J.

    2009-01-01

    'Full text:' The pundits say that we have already changed our climate by the cumulative effects of mankind's activities over the past century or so and anything we do now should be intended to reverse the process. By definition therefore we are actually engaged in an attempt to engineer a better climate for the world of the future than the one that we think faces us based on our current understanding. The presentation examines some of the implications and conflicts that this perspective brings to the evaluation of engineering projects and on ethical considerations for the profession. (author)

  19. Current and Future Distribution of the Tropical Tree Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxLike

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez Meyer, Enrique; Sánchez-Velásquez, Lázaro R.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata) can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potential in the forestry industry. In order to assess possible shifts in areas suitable for C. odorata plantations in Mexico with ecological niche models, we used the MaxLike algorithm, climate variables, the geo-referenced records of this species, three general circulation models and three scenarios of future emissions. Results show a current potential distribution of 573,079 km2 with an average probability of occurrence of 0.93 (± 0.13). The potential distribution area could increase up to 650,356 km2 by 2060 according to the general circulation model HADCM3 B2, with an average probability of occurrence of 0.86 (± 0.14). Finally, we delimited an area of 35,377 km2 that has a high potential for the establishment of C. odorata plantations, by selecting those sites with optimal conditions for its growth that are outside protected areas and are currently devoid of trees. C. odorata has a significant potential to help in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Using MaxLike we identified extense areas in Mexico suitable to increase carbon sequestration through plantations of this highly valued native tree species. PMID:27732622

  20. Current and Future Distribution of the Tropical Tree Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxLike.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada-Contreras, Israel; Equihua, Miguel; Laborde, Javier; Martínez Meyer, Enrique; Sánchez-Velásquez, Lázaro R

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata) can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potential in the forestry industry. In order to assess possible shifts in areas suitable for C. odorata plantations in Mexico with ecological niche models, we used the MaxLike algorithm, climate variables, the geo-referenced records of this species, three general circulation models and three scenarios of future emissions. Results show a current potential distribution of 573,079 km2 with an average probability of occurrence of 0.93 (± 0.13). The potential distribution area could increase up to 650,356 km2 by 2060 according to the general circulation model HADCM3 B2, with an average probability of occurrence of 0.86 (± 0.14). Finally, we delimited an area of 35,377 km2 that has a high potential for the establishment of C. odorata plantations, by selecting those sites with optimal conditions for its growth that are outside protected areas and are currently devoid of trees. C. odorata has a significant potential to help in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Using MaxLike we identified extense areas in Mexico suitable to increase carbon sequestration through plantations of this highly valued native tree species.

  1. Current and Future Distribution of the Tropical Tree Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxLike.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Israel Estrada-Contreras

    Full Text Available Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potential in the forestry industry. In order to assess possible shifts in areas suitable for C. odorata plantations in Mexico with ecological niche models, we used the MaxLike algorithm, climate variables, the geo-referenced records of this species, three general circulation models and three scenarios of future emissions. Results show a current potential distribution of 573,079 km2 with an average probability of occurrence of 0.93 (± 0.13. The potential distribution area could increase up to 650,356 km2 by 2060 according to the general circulation model HADCM3 B2, with an average probability of occurrence of 0.86 (± 0.14. Finally, we delimited an area of 35,377 km2 that has a high potential for the establishment of C. odorata plantations, by selecting those sites with optimal conditions for its growth that are outside protected areas and are currently devoid of trees. C. odorata has a significant potential to help in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Using MaxLike we identified extense areas in Mexico suitable to increase carbon sequestration through plantations of this highly valued native tree species.

  2. Smithsonian climate change exhibits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Mohi

    2006-05-01

    Two new museum exhibits, ``Arctic: A Friend Acting Strangely'' and ``Atmosphere: Change is in the Air'' opened 15 April at the Smithsonian Institution's National Museum of Natural History in Washington, D.C., in partnership with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, and the U.S. National Science Foundation. In ``Arctic: A Friend Acting Strangely,'' anecdotes from indigenous polar people reveal how climate changes have affected life within the last 50 years. For example, as permafrost melts and sea ice shrinks, plant distributions and animal migration patterns are changing, severely affecting culture.

  3. Climate Change and Health: Nurses as Drivers of Climate Action

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cara Cook

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Changes to Earth’s climate are occurring globally at unprecedented rates with significant impacts to human and population health, including increased likelihood of mental health illnesses, food and water insecurity, insect-borne and heat-related illnesses, and respiratory diseases. Those in the health sector are seeing the challenges patients and community members are experiencing as a result of current and projected climate threats. Health professionals, including nurses, have an opportunity to lead the charge to significantly improve society’s response to climate change and foster the strategies needed to promote health. This article highlights the current work of the Alliance of Nurses for Healthy Environments, a national nursing organization focused solely on environmental health concerns, in inspiring and empowering nurses across the country to engage in action to reduce their climate impact, move climate solutions forward, and improve the ability of health care institutions and communities to respond to the health impacts of climate change.

  4. Climate change and amphibians

    OpenAIRE

    Corn, P. S.

    2005-01-01

    Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines i...

  5. Managing Climate Change Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB1 Aspendale, Victoria 3195 (Australia)

    2003-07-01

    Issues of uncertainty, scale and delay between action and response mean that 'dangerous' climate change is best managed within a risk assessment framework that evolves as new information is gathered. Risk can be broadly defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence; the latter measured as vulnerability to greenhouse-induced climate change. The most robust way to assess climate change damages in a probabilistic framework is as the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance. Because vulnerability is dominated by local factors, global vulnerability is the aggregation of many local impacts being forced beyond their coping ranges. Several case studies, generic sea level rise and temperature, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and water supply in an Australian catchment, are used to show how local risk assessments can be assessed then expressed as a function of global warming. Impacts treated thus can be aggregated to assess global risks consistent with Article 2 of the UNFCCC. A 'proof of concept' example is then used to show how the stabilisation of greenhouse gases can constrain the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds at both the both local and global scale. This analysis suggests that even if the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages can be estimated, the likelihood of being able to meet a cost-benefit target is limited by both physical and socio-economic uncertainties. In terms of managing climate change risks, adaptation will be most effective at reducing vulnerability likely to occur at low levels of warming. Successive efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases will reduce the likelihood of reaching levels of global warming from the top down, with the highest potential temperatures being avoided first, irrespective of contributing scientific uncertainties. This implies that the first cuts in emissions will always produce the largest economic benefits in terms of avoided

  6. Sustain : the climate change challenge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    This special report on climate change and greenhouse gas emissions focused on widely held current opinions which indicate that average global surface temperatures are increasing. The potential consequences of climate change can include rising sea levels, drought storms, disease, and mass migration of people. While the global climate change theory is widely accepted, the report warns that there are still many uncertainties about how climate change occurs and what processes can offset human-caused emissions. Canada produces about 2 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon dioxide comprises 80 per cent of Canada's total emissions. It is well known that Canadians place a heavy demand on energy to heat and light their homes because of the northern climate, and on transportation fuels to move people, goods and services across vast distances. With the Kyoto Protocol of December 1997, developed countries agreed to legally binding greenhouse gas emission reductions of at least five per cent by 2008 to 2012. Canada agreed to a six per cent reduction below 1990 levels by 2010. Although Canada signed the Kyoto Protocol, it does not intend to ratify it until an implementation strategy has been developed with broad support. The goal is to develop a strategy by 1999. The oil and gas industry has in general improved its efficiency and reduced emissions on a per unit of production basis by installing new equipment and new operating practices that reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, and improve energy efficiency. The industry is conscious of its responsibility, and while not fully in agreement with the environmental doomsayers, it is prepared to take proactive actions now, albeit on a voluntary basis. What the industry wants is a balance between environmental and economic responsibility. E missions trading' and 'joint implementation' are seen as two important tools to tackle climate change on a global basis. 4 figs

  7. Stop the climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tissot, B.

    2003-04-01

    This book tries to answer today's main environmental questions relative to the climatic change: how our massive petroleum and coal consumption has led to a greenhouse effect? What will happen tomorrow when Chinese and Indian people will reach the same energy consumption levels as people of western countries? Is it too late to reverse the trend? If solar energy is the long-term solution, what can we do in the meantime? The author presents the conditions we must fulfill to keep the Earth in a good environmental condition: 1 - a brief story of energy; 2 - the climatic changes and their secrets; 3 - the greenhouse effect: necessary for life but worrying for the future; 4 - the energy demand and the stakes; 2 - fossil fuels: abundance or shortage? 6 - can we fight against greenhouse gases? 7 - the nuclear energy (reactors and wastes management); 8 - the renewable energies: a necessary contribution at the century scale and the unique answer at the millennium scale; 9 - the time of main choices is not so far; 10 - two questions (energy demand and climatic change) and a unique answer (sustainable development). (J.S.)

  8. The neurobiology of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Sean

    2018-02-01

    Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.

  9. The neurobiology of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Sean

    2018-01-06

    Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.

  10. Market strategies for climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.M.

    2004-01-01

    The issue of climate change has attracted increasing business attention in the past decade. Whereas companies initially aimed primarily at influencing the policy debate, corporate strategies increasingly include economic responses. Existing classifications for climate change strategies however still

  11. Ecological impacts of atmospheric pollution and interactions with climate change in terrestrial ecosystems of the Mediterranean Basin: Current research and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa-Hueso, Raúl; Munzi, Silvana; Alonso, Rocío; Arróniz-Crespo, María; Avila, Anna; Bermejo, Victoria; Bobbink, Roland; Branquinho, Cristina; Concostrina-Zubiri, Laura; Cruz, Cristina; Cruz de Carvalho, Ricardo; De Marco, Alessandra; Dias, Teresa; Elustondo, David; Elvira, Susana; Estébanez, Belén; Fusaro, Lina; Gerosa, Giacomo; Izquieta-Rojano, Sheila; Lo Cascio, Mauro; Marzuoli, Riccardo; Matos, Paula; Mereu, Simone; Merino, José; Morillas, Lourdes; Nunes, Alice; Paoletti, Elena; Paoli, Luca; Pinho, Pedro; Rogers, Isabel B; Santos, Arthur; Sicard, Pierre; Stevens, Carly J; Theobald, Mark R

    2017-08-01

    Mediterranean Basin ecosystems, their unique biodiversity, and the key services they provide are currently at risk due to air pollution and climate change, yet only a limited number of isolated and geographically-restricted studies have addressed this topic, often with contrasting results. Particularities of air pollution in this region include high O 3 levels due to high air temperatures and solar radiation, the stability of air masses, and dominance of dry over wet nitrogen deposition. Moreover, the unique abiotic and biotic factors (e.g., climate, vegetation type, relevance of Saharan dust inputs) modulating the response of Mediterranean ecosystems at various spatiotemporal scales make it difficult to understand, and thus predict, the consequences of human activities that cause air pollution in the Mediterranean Basin. Therefore, there is an urgent need to implement coordinated research and experimental platforms along with wider environmental monitoring networks in the region. In particular, a robust deposition monitoring network in conjunction with modelling estimates is crucial, possibly including a set of common biomonitors (ideally cryptogams, an important component of the Mediterranean vegetation), to help refine pollutant deposition maps. Additionally, increased attention must be paid to functional diversity measures in future air pollution and climate change studies to establish the necessary link between biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services in Mediterranean ecosystems. Through a coordinated effort, the Mediterranean scientific community can fill the above-mentioned gaps and reach a greater understanding of the mechanisms underlying the combined effects of air pollution and climate change in the Mediterranean Basin. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Designing Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, P. C.; ORyan, C.

    2012-12-01

    In a time when sensationalism rules the online world, it is best to keep things short. The people of the online world are not passing back and forth lengthy articles, but rather brief glimpses of complex information. This is the target audience we attempt to educate. Our challenge is then to attack not only ignorance, but also apathy toward global climate change, while conforming to popular modes of learning. When communicating our scientific material, it was difficult to determine what level of information was appropriate for our audience, especially with complex subject matter. Our unconventional approach for communicating the carbon crisis as it applies to global climate change caters to these 'recreational learners'. Using story-telling devices acquired from Carolyne's biomedical art background coupled with Peter's extensive knowledge of carbon cycle and ecosystems science, we developed a dynamic series of illustrations that capture the attention of a callous audience. Adapting complex carbon cycle and climate science into comic-book-style animations creates a channel between artist, scientist, and the general public. Brief scenes of information accompanied by text provide a perfect platform for visual learners, as well as fresh portrayals of stale material for the jaded. In this way art transcends the barriers of the cerebral and the abstract, paving the road to understanding.;

  13. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    The absence of a global agreement on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions calls for adaptation to climate change. The associated paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change...... adaptation needed. Issues that must be addressed in case a strategic approach is not developed, as the building sector is continuously investing in measures to adapt to climate change as impacts emerge are described....

  14. Climate change and child health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seal, Arnab; Vasudevan, Chakrapani

    2011-12-01

    Postindustrial human activity has contributed to rising atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases causing global warming and climate change. The adverse effects of climate change affect children disproportionately, especially in the developing world. Urgent action is necessary to mitigate the causes and adapt to the negative effects of climate change. Paediatricians have an important role in managing the effects of climate change on children and promoting sustainable development.

  15. Climatic change and impacts: a general introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fantechi, R.; Almeida-Teixeira, M.E.; Maracchi, G.

    1991-01-01

    These proceedings are divided into six parts containing 29 technical papers. 1. An Overview of the Climatic System, 2. Past climate Changes, 3. Climate Processes and Climate Modelling, 4. Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change, 5. Climatic Impacts, 6. STUDENTS' PAPERS

  16. Climate change and the biosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    F. Stuart Chapin

    2008-01-01

    Scientific assessments now clearly demonstrate the ecologic and societal consequences of human induced climate change, as detailed by the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Global warming spells danger for Earth's biomes, which in turn play an important role in climate change. On the following pages, you will read about some of...

  17. Climate Change and Natural Disasters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Merkouris, Panos; Negri, Stefania; Maljean-Dubois, Sandrine

    2014-01-01

    Only 21 years ago, in 1992, the first ever convention on climate change, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was signed. The science behind studying climate change and its effects on the environment is not only mind-boggling but still in its infancy. It should come

  18. Mitigation : climate change briefing paper

    OpenAIRE

    Carbon Trust

    2009-01-01

    Climate change mitigation entails finding ways to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change. Ways of mitigating climate change include reducing demand for emissions-intensive goods and services, increasing efficiency gains, increasing use and development of low-carbon technologies, and reducing non-fossil fuel emissions. Publisher PDF

  19. Climate Change, Agriculture, and Poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas W. Hertel; Stephanie D. Rosch

    2010-01-01

    Although much has been written about climate change and poverty as distinct and complex problems, the link between them has received little attention. Understanding this link is vital for the formulation of effective policy responses to climate change. This paper focuses on agriculture as a primary means by which the impacts of climate change are transmitted to the poor, and as a sector at...

  20. Agriculture and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abelson, P.H.

    1992-01-01

    How will increases in levels of CO 2 and changes in temperature affect food production? A recently issued report analyzes prospects for US agriculture 1990 to 2030. The report, prepared by a distinguished Task Force, first projects the evolution of agriculture assuming increased levels of CO 2 but no climate change. Then it deals with effects of climate change, followed by a discussion of how greenhouse emissions might be diminished by agriculture. Economic and policy matters are also covered. How the climate would respond to more greenhouse gases is uncertain. If temperatures were higher, there would be more evaporation and more precipitation. Where would the rain fall? That is a good question. Weather in a particular locality is not determined by global averages. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s could be repeated at its former site or located in another region such as the present Corn Belt. But depending on the realities at a given place, farmers have demonstrated great flexibility in choosing what they may grow. Their flexibility has been increased by the numerous varieties of seeds of major crops that are now available, each having different characteristics such as drought resistance and temperature tolerance. In past, agriculture has contributed about 5% of US greenhouse gases. Two large components have involved emissions of CO 2 from farm machinery and from oxidation of organic matter in soil due to tillage. Use of diesel fuel and more efficient machinery has reduced emissions from that source by 40%. In some areas changed tillage practices are now responsible for returning carbon to the soil. The report identifies an important potential for diminishing net US emissions of CO 2 by growth and utilization of biomass. Large areas are already available that could be devoted to energy crops

  1. Helping African cities prepare for climate change

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate Change Adaptation in Africa Program 2010–11 Annual Report. Stories from the field. Helping African cities prepare for climate change. According to United Nations figures, 40% of Africa's one billion people currently live in urban areas; 60% of this group live in slums without adequate water supply and sanitation.

  2. Climate Change Adaptation in Africa | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate Change Adaptation in Africa. Climate change is expected to hit developing countries hardest. Current levels of greenhouse gas emissions mean that many impacts are now unavoidable, ranging from decreased crop yields in regions where people are already undernourished, to increased incidence of serious ...

  3. Population and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Joel E

    2010-06-01

    To review, the four broad dimensions of any complex human problem, including climate change, are the human population, economics, culture, and environment. These dimensions interact with one another in all directions and on many time-scales. From 2010 to 2050, the human population is likely to grow bigger, more slowly, older, and more urban. It is projected that by 2050 more than 2.6 billion people (almost 94% of global urban growth) will be added to the urban population in today's developing countries. That works out to 1.26 million additional urban people in today's developing countries every week from 2010 to 2050. Humans alter the climate by emitting greenhouse gases, by altering planetary albedo, and by altering atmospheric components. Between 1900 and 2000, humans' emissions of carbon into the atmosphere increased fifteenfold, while the numbers of people increased less than fourfold. Population growth alone, with constant rates of emissions per person, could not account for the increase in the carbon emissions to the atmosphere. The world economy grew sixteenfold in the twentieth century, accompanied by enormous increases in the burning of gas, oil, and coal. In the last quarter of the twentieth century, population grew much faster in developing countries than in high-income countries, and, compared with population growth, the growth of carbon emissions to the atmosphere was even faster in developing countries than in high-income countries. The ratio of emissions-to-population growth rates was 2.8 in developing countries compared with 1.6 in high-income countries. Emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases are influenced by the sizes and density of settlements, the sizes of households, and the ages of householders. Between 2010 and 2050, these demographic factors are anticipated to change substantially. Therefore demography will play a substantial role in the dynamics of climate changes. Climate changes affect many aspects of the living environment

  4. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change.

    OpenAIRE

    Schiavon, Stefano; Zecchin, Roberto

    2007-01-01

    Politiche, misure e strumenti per contenere le emissioni di CO2 Illustriamo l’ultimo contributo al quarto Rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici votato a maggio 2007 dal terzo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato intergovernativo “Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”. Il Rapporto affronta la problematica delle tendenze delle emissioni dei gas serra e il tema della mitigazione a breve e lungo termine. Presentiamo un’analisi critica delle proposte del documento.

  5. Construction of climate change scenarios from transient climate change experiments for the IPCC impacts assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viner, D.; Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Jones, P.D.

    1994-01-01

    This paper outlines the different methods which may be used for the construction of regional climate change scenarios. The main focus of the paper is the construction of global climate change scenarios from climate change experiments carried out using General Circulation Models (GCMS) An introduction to some GCM climate change experiments highlights the difference between model types and experiments (e.g., equilibrium or transient). The latest generation of climate change experiments has been performed using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMS. These allow transient simulations of climate change to be performed with respect to a given greenhouse gas forcing scenario. There are, however, a number of problems with these simulations which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios for use in climate change impacts assessment. The characteristics of the transient climate change experiments which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios are discussed. Three examples of these problems are: different climate change experiments use different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios; the 'cold-start' problem makes it difficult to link future projections of climate change to a given calendar year; a drift of the climate is noticeable in the control simulations. In order to construct climate change scenarios for impacts assessment a method has therefore to be employed which addresses these problems. At present the climate modeling and climate change impacts communities are somewhat polarized in their approach to spatial scales. Current GCMs model the climate at resolutions larger than 2.5 x 3.75 degree, while the majority of impacts assessment studies are undertaken at scales below 50km (or 0.5 degree). This paper concludes by addressing the problems in bringing together these two different modeling perspectives by presenting a number of regional climate change scenarios. 35 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs

  6. Energy and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadena, Angela Ines

    2000-01-01

    Human intervention in the carbon cycle has become a relevant concern in recent times. Global warming is a phenomenon due to the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG-s) carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons, believed to be irreversible. CO 2 is the most important GHG its contribution to the radioactive forcing of climate is estimated in about 70%. Changes in the global concentration of these gases depend on the level of emissions as a by-product of economic activities, the natural assimilative capacity of the global ecosystem, and the abatement activities. The paper include the Colombian situation

  7. The climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvo Redondo, A.; Rodriguez Eustaquio, A.; Sanchez y Llorente, J.M.; Luis y Hernandez, S.; Panero Santos, C.; Gomez Cubero, J.A.; Arias-Camison Hernandez, J.C.

    1994-01-01

    This paper has been developed to show how the future of the climate of our planet could become. The factors that takes places in this possible change are also carefully explained. The human action over the environment is probably disturbing the atmospheric system. The processes that involves this perturbations are shown: pollution, fires in hugh regions such as Amazonia Central Australia, Central and East Africa and some others. Factors like these seems are destroying the ozone shell. We also explain the problems to be sure that the expectatives for the future are reliable. Finally, we propose some solutions for this situation. Special situations like nuclear winter or the desertization are also included. (Author)

  8. Interdisciplinarity, Climate, and Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2016-12-01

    Interdisciplinarity has become synonymous with all things progressive about research and education. This is so not simply because of a philosophical belief in the heterogeneity of knowledge but because of the scientific and social complexities of problems of major concern. The increased demand for improved climate knowledge and information has increased pressure to support planning under changing rates of extremes event occurrence, is well-documented. The application of useful climate data, information and knowledge requires multiple networks and information services infrastructure that support planning and implementation. As widely quoted, Pasteur's quadrant is a label given to a class of scientific research methodologies that seeks fundamental understanding of scientific problems and, simultaneously, to benefit society-what Stokes called "use-inspired research". Innovation, in this context, has been defined as "the process by which individuals and organizations generate new ideas and put them into practice". A growing number of research institutes and programs have begun developing a cadre of professionals focused on integrating basic and applied research in areas such as climate risk assessment and adaptation. There are now several examples of where researchers and teams have crafted examples that include affected communities. In this presentation we will outline the lessons from several efforts including the PACE program, the RISAs, NIDIS, the Climate Services Information System and other interdisciplinary service-oriented efforts in which the author has been involved. Some early lessons include the need to: Recognize that key concerns of social innovation go beyond the projections of climate and other global changes to embrace multiple methods Continue to train scientists of all stripes of disciplinary norms, but higher education should also prepare students who plan to seek careers outside of academia by increasing flexibility in graduate training programs

  9. Our knowledge on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turkenburg, W.C.; Van Wijk, A.J.M.

    1991-01-01

    A workshop was organised to evaluate and discuss the report 'Scientific Assessment of Climate Change (1990)' of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Thirty prominent Dutch experts in the field attended the workshop. The introductions and discussions held on our knowledge of climatic change as a result of the growth of the greenhouse effect caused by the emission of greenhouse gases from human actions are presented. It is concluded that the IPCC-report shows in a clear and balanced way the certainties and uncertainties in our knowledge of climate change. There is a large chance that the earth's climate will change considerably, if the policy remains unamended. 15 figs., 2 apps

  10. Climate change research - Danish contributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joergensen, A.M.K.; Fenger, J.; Halsnaes, K.

    2001-01-01

    The book describes a series of Danish scientific and technical studies. They broadly reflect the fields and disciplines embraced by assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but with an emphasis on natural sciences (i.e. climate investigations and impact studies). After the general introduction, that presents the issue and gives a summary of the content of the book, the chapters are organised in four parts: 1. The Climate System and Climate Variations. 2. Climate Change Scenarios. 3. Impacts of Climate Change. 4. Policy Aspects. Each chapter is indexed separately. (LN)

  11. Interactions Between Climate Change, World Economics, and Climate Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parapatits Zsolt

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is a major current issue which affects natural, economic and social processes equally. Despite the widespread acclaim of the issue we still encounter economic and political solution models that are climate-sceptic and often contradict each other. As a result, national climate policies and social opinions constantly change in an active interaction with each other. Thus, this current study, based on the latest international literature, reviews and analyses the world economic tendencies, related social and political responses along which different official (national standpoints are formed. Therefore, the interpretations of related scientific research results are often different, which can easily lead to unsuccessful problem solution.

  12. The Ecological consequences of global climate change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Woodward, F. I

    1992-01-01

    ... & land use - modeling potential responses of vegetation to global climate change - effects of climatic change on population dynamics of crop pests - responses of soils to climate change - predicting...

  13. Climate change and nutrition: creating a climate for nutrition security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tirado, M C; Crahay, P; Mahy, L; Zanev, C; Neira, M; Msangi, S; Brown, R; Scaramella, C; Costa Coitinho, D; Müller, A

    2013-12-01

    Climate change further exacerbates the enormous existing burden of undernutrition. It affects food and nutrition security and undermines current efforts to reduce hunger and promote nutrition. Undernutrition in turn undermines climate resilience and the coping strategies of vulnerable populations. The objectives of this paper are to identify and undertake a cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the existing mechanisms, strategies, and policies to address them. A cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the mechanisms and policies to address them was guided by an analytical framework focused on the three 'underlying causes' of undernutrition: 1) household food access, 2) maternal and child care and feeding practices, 3) environmental health and health access. The analytical framework includes the interactions of the three underlying causes of undernutrition with climate change,vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation. Within broad efforts on climate change mitigation and adaptation and climate-resilient development, a combination of nutrition-sensitive adaptation and mitigation measures, climate-resilient and nutrition-sensitive agricultural development, social protection, improved maternal and child care and health, nutrition-sensitive risk reduction and management, community development measures, nutrition-smart investments, increased policy coherence, and institutional and cross-sectoral collaboration are proposed as a means to address the impacts of climate change to food and nutrition security. This paper proposes policy directions to address nutrition in the climate change agenda and recommendations for consideration by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Nutrition and health stakeholders need to be engaged in key climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives, including science-based assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC

  14. Armillaria Pathogenesis under Climate Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarzyna Kubiak

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate changes influencing forest ecosystems include increased air temperatures and CO2 concentrations as well as droughts and decreased water availability. These changes in turn effect changes in species composition of both host plants and pathogens. In the case of Armillaria, climate changes cause an increase in the activity of individual species and modify the growth of rhizomorphs, increasing the susceptibility of trees. The relationship between climate changes and the biotic elements of Armillaria disease are discussed in overview.

  15. Climate Change and the Delta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Dettinger

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2016v14iss3art5Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes are much less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. However, the same projections agree that precipitation will be more intense when storms do arrive, even as more dry days will separate storms. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporative demands and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Sea level rise (SLR during the 20th century was about 22 cm, and is projected to increase by at least 3-fold this century. SLR together with land subsidence threatens the Delta with greater vulnerabilities to inundation and salinity intrusion. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include SLR, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflows, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict

  16. Climate change and the Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Anderson, Jamie; Anderson, Michael L.; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel; Maurer, Edwin P.

    2016-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages) by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes are much less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. However, the same projections agree that precipitation will be more intense when storms do arrive, even as more dry days will separate storms. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporative demands and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Sea level rise (SLR) during the 20th century was about 22cm, and is projected to increase by at least 3-fold this century. SLR together with land subsidence threatens the Delta with greater vulnerabilities to inundation and salinity intrusion. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include SLR, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflows, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict, except that native species will fare worse than invaders. Successful

  17. Financing for climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooper, Richard N.

    2012-01-01

    This paper argues that the 2009 pledge of $100 billion in 2020 by rich countries for mitigation and adaptation should not be used for mitigation by commercial firms in developing countries, since that would artificially create competitive advantage for such firms and provoke protectionist reactions in the rich countries where firms must bear the costs of mitigation, thereby undermining the world trading system. The costs of heating the earth's surface should be borne by all emitters, just as the price of copper and other scarce resources is paid by all users, rich or poor. That will still leave scope for rich country help in adaptation to climate change and in bringing to fruition new technologies to reduce emissions. - Highlights: ► Slowing climate change significantly cannot occur without the participation of the largest emitters among developing countries. ► The cost of GHG mitigation must be the same for all competing firms, wherever they are located. ► The world trading system is seriously at risk in the face of a poorly designed system for global mitigation of greenhouse gases. ► No significantly emitting firm, anywhere, public or private, should be protected from the incentive to reduce its emissions. ► Higher prices for fossil fuels need not reduce national growth rates in consuming countries.

  18. Climate change impacts on global food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

    2013-08-02

    Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

  19. Climate Change. Solutions for Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, T.; Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Karoly, D.; Lowe, I.; McMichael, T.; Mitchell, C.; Pearman, G.; Scaife, P.; Reynolds, A. (eds.)

    2004-06-01

    The Australian Climate Group was convened in late 2003 by WWF Australia and the Insurance Australia Group (IAG) in response to the increasing need for action on climate change in Australia. This group proposes a set of solutions to lower the risk that climate change will reach a dangerous level.

  20. Politics of climate change belief

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Donald Trump's actions during the election and his first weeks as US president-elect send a strong message about his belief in climate change, or lack thereof. However, these actions may reflect polarization of climate change beliefs, not climate mitigation behaviour.

  1. Uncertainty and climate change policy

    OpenAIRE

    Quiggin, John

    2008-01-01

    The paper consists of a summary of the main sources of uncertainty about climate change, and a discussion of the major implications for economic analysis and the formulation of climate policy. Uncertainty typically implies that the optimal policy is more risk-averse than otherwise, and therefore enhances the case for action to mitigate climate change.

  2. Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuur, E.A.G.; McGuire, A. David; Schädel, C.; Grosse, G.; Harden, J.W.; Hayes, D.J.; Hugelius, G.; Koven, C.D.; Kuhry, P.; Lawrence, D.M.; Natali, Susan M.; Olefeldt, David; Romanovsky, V.E.; Schaefer, K.; Turetsky, M.R.; Treat, C.C.; Vonk, J.E.

    2015-01-01

    Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.

  3. Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuur, E A G; McGuire, A D; Schädel, C; Grosse, G; Harden, J W; Hayes, D J; Hugelius, G; Koven, C D; Kuhry, P; Lawrence, D M; Natali, S M; Olefeldt, D; Romanovsky, V E; Schaefer, K; Turetsky, M R; Treat, C C; Vonk, J E

    2015-04-09

    Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.

  4. Severe thunderstorms and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, H. E.

    2013-04-01

    As the planet warms, it is important to consider possible impacts of climate change on severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. To further that discussion, the current distribution of severe thunderstorms as a function of large-scale environmental conditions is presented. Severe thunderstorms are much more likely to form in environments with large values of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and deep-tropospheric wind shear. Tornadoes and large hail are preferred in high-shear environments and non-tornadic wind events in low shear. Further, the intensity of tornadoes and hail, given that they occur, tends to be almost entirely a function of the shear and only weakly depends on the thermodynamics. Climate model simulations suggest that CAPE will increase in the future and the wind shear will decrease. Detailed analysis has suggested that the CAPE change will lead to more frequent environments favorable for severe thunderstorms, but the strong dependence on shear for tornadoes, particularly the strongest ones, and hail means that the interpretation of how individual hazards will change is open to question. The recent development of techniques to use higher-resolution models to estimate the occurrence of storms of various kinds is discussed. Given the large interannual variability in environments and occurrence of events, caution is urged in interpreting the observational record as evidence of climate change.

  5. Global Climate Change Pilot Course Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuenemann, K. C.; Wagner, R.

    2011-12-01

    In fall 2011 a pilot course on "Global Climate Change" is being offered, which has been proposed to educate urban, diverse, undergraduate students about climate change at the introductory level. The course has been approved to fulfill two general college requirements, a natural sciences requirement that focuses on the scientific method, as well as a global diversity requirement. This course presents the science behind global climate change from an Earth systems and atmospheric science perspective. These concepts then provide the basis to explore the effect of global warming on regions throughout the world. Climate change has been taught as a sub-topic in other courses in the past solely using scientific concepts, with little success in altering the climate change misconceptions of the students. This pilot course will see if new, innovative projects described below can make more of an impact on the students' views of climate change. Results of the successes or failures of these projects will be reported, as well as results of a pre- and post-course questionnaire on climate change given to students taking the course. Students in the class will pair off and choose a global region or country that they will research, write papers on, and then represent in four class discussions spaced throughout the semester. The first report will include details on the current climate of their region and how the climate shapes that region's society and culture. The second report will discuss how that region is contributing to climate change and/or sequestering greenhouse gases. Thirdly, students will discuss observed and predicted changes in that region's climate and what impact it has had, and could have, on their society. Lastly, students will report on what role their region has played in mitigating climate change, any policies their region may have implemented, and how their region can or cannot adapt to future climate changes. They will also try to get a feel for the region

  6. Climate Change and Mental Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trombley, Janna; Chalupka, Stephanie; Anderko, Laura

    2017-04-01

    : Climate change is an enormous challenge for our communities, our country, and our world. Recently much attention has been paid to the physical impacts of climate change, including extreme heat events, droughts, extreme storms, and rising sea levels. However, much less attention has been paid to the psychological impacts. This article examines the likely psychological impacts of climate change, including anxiety, stress, and depression; increases in violence and aggression; and loss of community identity. Nurses can play a vital role in local and regional climate strategies by preparing their patients, health care facilities, and communities to effectively address the anticipated mental health impacts of climate change.

  7. Changing Climates @ Colorado State: 100 (Multidisciplinary) Views of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, S.; Calderazzo, J.; Changing Climates, Cmmap Education; Diversity Team

    2011-12-01

    We would like to talk about a multidisciplinary education and outreach program we co-direct at Colorado State University, with support from an NSF-funded STC, CMMAP, the Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes. We are working to raise public literacy about climate change by providing information that is high quality, up to date, thoroughly multidisciplinary, and easy for non-specialists to understand. Our primary audiences are college-level students, their teachers, and the general public. Our motto is Climate Change is Everybody's Business. To encourage and help our faculty infuse climate-change content into their courses, we have organized some 115 talks given by as many different speakers-speakers drawn from 28 academic departments, all 8 colleges at CSU, and numerous other entities from campus, the community, and farther afield. We began with a faculty-teaching-faculty series and then broadened our attentions to the whole campus and surrounding community. Some talks have been for narrowly focused audiences such as extension agents who work on energy, but most are for more eclectic groups of students, staff, faculty, and citizens. We count heads at most events, and our current total is roughly 6,000. We have created a website (http://changingclimates.colostate.edu) that includes videotapes of many of these talks, short videos we have created, and annotated sources that we judge to be accurate, interesting, clearly written, and aimed at non-specialists, including books, articles and essays, websites, and a few items specifically for college teachers (such as syllabi). Pages of the website focus on such topics as how the climate works / how it changes; what's happening / what might happen; natural ecosystems; agriculture; impacts on people; responses from ethics, art, literature; communication; daily life; policy; energy; and-pulling all the pieces together-the big picture. We have begun working on a new series of very short videos that can be

  8. Primer on transportation and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-04-01

    This primer is an introduction to the issue of climate change and its implications for transportation policy in the United States. Its purpose is to outline the current thinking of governmental agencies, researchers, and advocacy groups on the issue ...

  9. Changing heathlands in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ransijn, Johannes

    Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures are rising and precipitation regimes are changing at global scale. How ecosystem will be affected by global climatic change is dependent on the responses of plants and plant communities. This thesis focuses on how climate change affects heathland...... plant communities. Many heathlands have shifted from dwarf shrub dominance to grass dominance and climatic change might affect the competitive balance between dwarf shrubs and grasses. We looked at heathland vegetation dynamics and heathland plant responses to climatic change at different spatial......) a study on the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2-concentration, warming and drought on the photosynthetic capacity and phenology of C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in an outdoor climate change experiment on a grassy heathland in Denmark; 4) a study on climate change impacts on the competitive interactions...

  10. The science of climate change.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doctor, R. D.

    1999-09-10

    A complex debate is underway on climate change linked to proposals for costly measures that would reshape our power grid. This confronts technical experts outside of the geophysical disciplines with extensive, but unfamiliar, data both supporting and refuting claims that serious action is warranted. For example, evidence is brought to the table from one group of astrophysicists concerned with sunspots--this group believes there is no issue man can manage; while another group of oceanographers concerned with the heat balance in the world's oceans are very alarmed at the loss of arctic ice. What is the evidence? In an effort to put some of these issues in perspective for a technical audience, without a background in geophysics, a brief survey will consider (1) an overview of the 300 years of scientific inquiry on man's relationship to climate; (2) a basic discussion of what is meant by the ''greenhouse'' and why there are concerns which include not only CO{sub 2}, but also CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, and CFC's; (3) the geological record on CO{sub 2}--which likely was present at 1,000 times current levels when life began; (4) the solar luminosity and sunspot question; and (5) the current evidence for global climate change. We are at a juncture where we are attempting to understand the earth as an integrated dynamic system, rather than a collection of isolated components.

  11. Confronting climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-08-01

    Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), especially from energy production and use, and their impact on global climate emerged as a major national issue in the United States during the 1980s. As a result, Congress directed the US Department of Energy (DOE) to ask the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering to assess the current state of research and development (R ampersand D) in the United States in alternative energy sources, and to suggest energy R ampersand D strategies involving roles for both the public and private sectors, should the government want to give priority to stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs. The findings and recommendations of the Committee on Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies, appointed by the National Research Council in response to Congress's directive, are provided in this report and summarized in this chapter. The energy R ampersand D strategies and actions recommended by the committee are structured to facilitate prudent and decisive responses by the United States, despite uncertainties regarding the effects of GHGs on global climate. 96 refs., 4 figs., 17 tabs

  12. Climate Change and Poverty Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Simon

    2011-08-15

    Climate change will make it increasingly difficult to achieve and sustain development goals. This is largely because climate effects on poverty remain poorly understood, and poverty reduction strategies do not adequately support climate resilience. Ensuring effective development in the face of climate change requires action on six fronts: investing in a stronger climate and poverty evidence base; applying the learning about development effectiveness to how we address adaptation needs; supporting nationally derived, integrated policies and programmes; including the climate-vulnerable poor in developing strategies; and identifying how mitigation strategies can also reduce poverty and enable adaptation.

  13. Climate changes and biodiversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertelsmeier, C.

    2011-01-01

    As some people forecast an average temperature increase between 1 and 3.5 degrees by the end of the century, with higher increases under high latitudes (it could reach 8 degrees in some regions of Canada), other changes will occur: precipitations, sea level rise, reductions in polar ice, extreme climatic events, glacier melting, and so on. The author discusses how these changes will impact biodiversity as they will threat habitat and living conditions of many species. Some studies assess a loss of 15 to 37 per cent of biodiversity by 2050. Moreover, physiology is influenced by temperature: for some species, higher temperatures favour the development of female embryos, or the increase of their population, or may result in an evolution of their reproduction strategy. Life rhythm will also change, for plants as well as for animals. Species will keep on changing their distribution area, but some others will not be able to and are therefore threatened. Finally, as the evolutions concern their vectors, some diseases will spread in new regions

  14. Climate change convention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, D.

    1992-01-01

    Principles that guide Canada's Green Plan with respect to global warming are outlined. These include respect for nature, meeting environmental goals in an economically beneficial manner, efficient use of resources, shared responsibilities, federal leadership, and informed decision making. The policy side of the international Framework Convention on Climate Change is then discussed and related to the Green Plan. The Convention has been signed by 154 nations and has the long-term objective of stabilizing anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at levels that prevent dangerous interference with the climate system. Some of the Convention's commitments toward achieving that objective are only applicable to the developed countries. Five general areas of commitment are emissions reductions, assistance to developing countries, reporting requirements, scientific and socioeconomic research, and education. The most controversial area is that of limiting emissions. The Convention has strong measures for public accountability and is open to future revisions. Canada's Green Plan represents one country's response to the Convention commitments, including a national goal to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at the 1990 level by the year 2000

  15. The Climate Change Impact On Grapevine Productivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Nedealcov

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The viticulture, a traditional branch of the national economy, is closely related to climatic conditions because the Republic of Moldova territory represents the northern border of its territorial location. Therefore the knowledge of regional particularities of grapevine productivity formation in dependence of current agro-climatic conditions is of particular interest. Along with accelerated climate change in last decades over the Republic of Moldova territory, we find that are essential changes concerning agro-meteorological conditions, at the same time comprehensive researches that would reflect the actual impact of climate change on grapevine are limited. There are known researches, but in the context of changes that occur at regional level it is necessary to supplement permanently the database in order to elaborate an appropriate estimation of current climate conditions. The above reported facts show the importance of parameters influencing the grapevine productivity time and space study in Republic of Moldova.

  16. Accounting for Climate Change: Introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lieberman, Daniel; Jonas, Matthias; Winiwarter, Wilfried; Nahorski, Zbigniew; Nilsson, Sten

    2007-01-01

    The assessment of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted to and removed from the atmosphere is high on both political and scientific agendas internationally. As increasing international concern and cooperation aim at policy-oriented solutions to the climate change problem, several issues have begun to arise regarding verification and compliance under both proposed and legislated schemes meant to reduce the human-induced global climate impact. The approaches to addressing uncertainty introduced in this article attempt to improve national inventories or to provide a basis for the standardization of inventory estimates to enable comparison of emissions and emission changes across countries. Authors of the accompanying articles use detailed uncertainty analyses to enforce the current structure of the emission trading system and attempt to internalize high levels of uncertainty by tailoring the emissions trading market rules. Assessment of uncertainty can help improve inventories and manage risk. Through recognizing the importance of, identifying and quantifying uncertainties, great strides can be made in the process of Accounting for Climate Change

  17. Global Warming and Climate Change Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Atul

    2008-03-01

    Global climate change has emerged as a major scientific and political issue within a few short decades. Scientific evidence clearly indicates that this change is a result of a complex interplay between a number of human-related and natural earth systems. While the complexity of the earth-ocean-atmosphere system makes the understanding and prediction of global climate change very difficult, improved scientific knowledge and research capabilities are advancing our understanding of global climate change resulting from rising atmospheric levels of radiatively important (mostly heat-trapping) gases and particles. The effects of climate change can be assessed with climate models, which account for complex physical, chemical and biological processes, and interactions of these processes with human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels along with land use changes. This presentation begins with a discussion of the current understanding of the concerns about climate change, and then discusses the role climate models in scientific projections of climate change as well as their current strengths and weaknesses.

  18. A climate of change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Figueres Olsen, J.M.; Figueres, C.

    2000-01-01

    Global climate change has ceased to be strictly an environmental threat, lurking in the future. Its potential impacts could well make it the greatest social and economic challenge that humanity will have to face in the coming century. The first is competition. An energy revolution is now in the making, with advanced new technologies such as fuel cells, photovoltaics, wind turbines and flywheels entering the market. The reason why we moved beyond the horse and buggy a hundred years ago was not because we ran out of hay. Similarly, there is no doubt that the planet still has impressive oil reserves. However, as was the case when the oil era first emerged, those industries that successfully incorporate the new technologies will be well positioned to succeed economically in the 21 st century

  19. Ethics and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abel, O.; Bard, E.; Berger, A.; Besnier, J.M.; Guesnerie, R.; Serres, M.

    2009-01-01

    Faced with climate change what is the position of scientists, of economists and of political decision makers? And the one of philosophers, of moralists, and of theologians? Finally, what is the position of anyone of us? This question of ethical aspect has been rarely tackled in France so far. Prepared after a colloquium held in Paris in 2009, this book combines scientifical, philosophical, moral and theological perspectives accessible to anyone. It stresses on the novelty and urgency of the ethical thought concerning a question having a strong impact of the humanity future, and more particularly on the future of the most vulnerable of us. If the human being is capable to mobilize himself collectively for a universal cause, he can stay on individualistic positions as well, in particular when he has to care of the fate of the generations to come. This book is a philosophical-scientifical thought which aims at bringing together four main views on this issue. (J.S.)

  20. Potential global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    Global economic integration and growth contribute much to the construction of energy plants, vehicles and other industrial products that produces carbon emission and in effect cause the destruction of the environment. A coordinated policy and response worldwide to curb emissions and to effect global climate change must be introduced. Improvement in scientific understanding is required to monitor how much emission reduction is necessary. In the near term, especially in the next seven years, sustained research and development for low carbon or carbon-free energy is necessary. Other measures must also be introduced, such as limiting the use of vehicles, closing down inefficient power plants, etc. In the long term, the use of the electric car, use solar energy, etc. is required. Reforestation must also be considered to absorb large amounts of carbon in the atmosphere

  1. Environmental impact of climate change in pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, S.; Raja, I.A.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change results in the increase or decrease in temperature and rainfall. These have significant impact on environment - impinge agricultural crop yields, affect human health, cause changes to forests and other ecosystems, and even impact our energy supply. Climate change is a global phenomenon and its impact can be observed on Pakistan's economy and environment. This paper contains details concerning the climate change and environmental impacts. It takes into account current and projected key vulnerabilities, prospects for adaptation, and the relationships between climate change mitigation and environment. The purpose of the study is to devise national policies and incentive systems combined with national level capacity-building programs to encourage demand-oriented conservation technologies. Recommendations are also made to abate the climate change related issues in country. (author)

  2. Climate change risks for African agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Christoph; Cramer, Wolfgang; Hare, William L; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2011-03-15

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of major risks for African agriculture and food security caused by climate change during coming decades is confirmed by a review of more recent climate change impact assessments (14 quantitative, six qualitative). Projected impacts relative to current production levels range from -100% to +168% in econometric, from -84% to +62% in process-based, and from -57% to +30% in statistical assessments. Despite large uncertainty, there are several robust conclusions from published literature for policy makers and research agendas: agriculture everywhere in Africa runs some risk to be negatively affected by climate change; existing cropping systems and infrastructure will have to change to meet future demand. With respect to growing population and the threat of negative climate change impacts, science will now have to show if and how agricultural production in Africa can be significantly improved.

  3. Climate change policy position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-11-01

    The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) is a firm believer in the need to take action to mitigate the risks associated with climate change, and that clear government policy is called for. The principles of sustainable development must guide this policy development effort. The initiatives required to address greenhouse gas emissions over both the short and long term must be carefully considered, and it is up to industries to ensure their production efficiency and emission intensity. Promoting improved performance of industries in Canada and developing technology that can be deployed internationally for larger global effects represents Canada's best contribution to progress on greenhouse gas emissions. The increase in energy demand along with increases in population and economic growth have contributed to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions despite improved energy efficiency in industry. Significant damage to the economy will result if Canada is to meet its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol, forcing the country to buy large quantities of foreign credits instead of using those funds for increased research and development. CAPP indicated that an effective plan must be: balanced, equitable, responsible, competitive, focused on technology and innovation, and based on agreements on sectoral plans. Each of these principles were discussed, followed by the fundamentals of approach for upstream oil and gas. The framework for climate change policy was described as well as the elements of a sector plan. CAPP wants to work with all levels of government on an appropriate plan for Canada, that considers our unique circumstances. Canada can play a significant role on the international stage by properly implementing the policy position proposed by the CAPP without unnecessary risks to the economy. refs

  4. Our climate change actions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-05-01

    One of the main tools utilized by the Canadian government to encourage the private sector and other organizations to monitor, report and implement measures for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is the Climate Change Voluntary Challenge and Registry (VCR), a program supported by several industry leaders in the oil and gas sector, such as the Canadian Energy Pipeline Association (CEPA). Financial resources and human efforts have expanded for the past seven years (since 1995) by the transmission pipeline companies with the aim of continuously reducing the emissions of greenhouse gas which have an impact on climate change. The successes achieved by member companies of CEPA are described in this document, resulting in limitations to the growth of greenhouse gas emissions by players in the sector. The three types of greenhouse gas emissions produced by transmission pipelines, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, and the process by which they are produced, are explained. The high growth in emissions by transmission pipelines is due to the higher amounts of energy required to move increasing volumes of natural gas. Some of the successes achieved by companies in direct emissions in the sector are: advances in inventory accuracy, greenhouse gas audits, measuring fugitive emissions, reducing emissions from fossil fuel combustion, state-of-the-art technology, energy efficiency, computer modelling, improving operational efficiency and replacing equipment. In indirect emissions, the measures implemented include efficiency of electricity use and helping consumers save. Using waste heat to create electricity, and offsets through cogeneration are measures that contribute to the successes in innovation

  5. Climate Change Mitigation A Balanced Approach to Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a fresh and innovative perspective on climate change policy. By emphasizing the multiple facets of climate policy, from mitigation to adaptation, from technological innovation and diffusion to governance issues, it contains a comprehensive overview of the economic and policy dimensions of the climate problem. The keyword of the book is balance. The book clarifies that climate change cannot be controlled by sacrificing economic growth and many other urgent global issues. At the same time, action to control climate change cannot be delayed, even though gradually implemented. Therefore, on the one hand climate policy becomes pervasive and affects all dimensions of international policy. On the other hand, climate policy cannot be too ambitious: a balanced approach between mitigation and adaptation, between economic growth and resource management, between short term development efforts and long term innovation investments, should be adopted. I recommend its reading. Carlo Carraro, President, Ca�...

  6. Teaching Climate Change Through Music

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, P. S.

    2007-12-01

    During 2006, Peter Weiss aka "The Singing Scientist" performed many music assemblies for elementary schools (K-5) in Santa Cruz County, California, USA. These assemblies were an opportunity for him to mix a discussion of climate change with rock n' roll. In one song called "Greenhouse Glasses", Peter and his band the "Earth Rangers" wear over-sized clown glasses with "molecules" hanging off them (made with Styrofoam balls and pipe cleaners). Each molecule is the real molecular structure of a greenhouse gas, and the song explains how when the wearer of these glasses looks up in the sky, he/she can see the "greenhouse gases floating by." "I've seen more of them this year than the last / 'Cuz fossil fuels are burning fast / I wish everyone could see through these frames / Then maybe we could prevent climate change" Students sing, dance and get a visual picture of something that is invisible, yet is part of a very real problem. This performance description is used as an example of an educational style that can reach a wide audience and provide a framework for the audience as learners to assimilate future information on climate change. The hypothesis is that complex socio-environmental issues like climate change that must be taught in order to achieve sustainability are best done so through alternative mediums like music. Students develop awareness which leads to knowledge about chemistry, physics, and biology. These kinds of experiences which connect science learning to fun activities and community building are seriously lacking in primary and secondary schools and are a big reason why science illiteracy is a current social problem. Science education is also paired with community awareness (including the local plant/animal community) and cooperation. The Singing Scientist attempts to create a culture where it is cool to care about the environment. Students end up gardening in school gardens together and think about their "ecological footprint".

  7. Preparing for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holdgate, M

    1989-01-01

    There is a distinct probability that humankind is changing the climate and at the same time raising the sea level of the world. The most plausible projections we have now suggest a rise in mean world temperature of between 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2030--just 40 years hence. This is a bigger change in a smaller period than we know of in the experience of the earth's ecosystems and human societies. It implies that by 2030 the earth will be warmer than at any time in the past 120,000 years. In the same period, we are likely to see a rise of 15-30 centimeters in sea level, partly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and partly to the expansion of the warmer seas. This may not seem much--but it comes on top of the 12-centimeter rise in the past century and we should recall that over 1/2 the world's population lives in zones on or near coasts. A quarter meter rise in sea level could have drastic consequences for countries like the Maldives or the Netherlands, where much of the land lies below the 2-meter contour. The cause of climate change is known as the 'greenhouse effect'. Greenhouse glass has the property that it is transparent to radiation coming in from the sun, but holds back radiation to space from the warmed surfaces inside the greenhouse. Certain gases affect the atmosphere in the same way. There are 5 'greenhouse gases' and we have been roofing ourselves with them all: carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25% above preindustrial levels and are likely to double within a century, due to tropical forest clearance and especially to the burning of increasing quantities of coal and other fossil fuels; methane concentrations are now twice their preindustrial levels as a result of releases from agriculture; nitrous oxide has increased due to land clearance for agriculture, use of fertilizers, and fossil fuel combustion; ozone levels near the earth's surface have increased due mainly to pollution from motor vehicles; and

  8. America's Climate Choices: Advancing the Science of Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matson, P. A.; Dietz, T.; Kraucunas, I.

    2010-12-01

    At the request of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences convened a series of coordinated activities to provide advice on actions and strategies the nation can take to respond to climate change. This suite of activities included a panel report on Advancing the Science of Climate Change. The report concludes that a strong, credible body of scientific evidence shows that climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for a broad range of human and natural systems. As decision makers respond to these risks, the nation's scientific enterprise can contribute both by continuing to improve understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change, and by improving and expanding the options available to limit the magnitude of climate change and adapt to its impacts. To make this possible, the nation needs a comprehensive, integrated, and flexible climate change research enterprise that is closely linked with action-oriented programs at all levels. The report recommends that a single federal entity or program be given the authority and resources to coordinate a national research effort integrated across many disciplines and aimed at improving both understanding and responses to climate change. The U.S. Global Change Research Program, established in 1990, could fulfill this role, but it would need to address weaknesses in the current program and form partnerships with action-oriented programs at all levels. A comprehensive climate observing system, improved climate models and other analytical tools, investment in human capital, and better linkages between research and decision making are also essential for advancing the science of climate change.

  9. Research on climate effects. Effects of climate changes. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, W.; Stein, G.

    1991-01-01

    Global changes affecting the earth are at the forefront of public interest, possibly caused by climate alterations amongst other things. The public expects appropriate measures from politics to successfully adapt to unavoidable climate changes. As well as an investigation into the causes of climatic changes and the corollaries between the different scientific phenomena, the effects on the economy and society must also be examined. The Federal Minister for Research and Technology aims to make a valuable German contribution to international Global Change Research with the focal point ''Effects of Climate Changes on the Ecological and Civil System''. The aim of the workshop was to give an outline of current scientific knowledge, sketch out research requirements and give recommendations on the focal point with regard to the BMFT. (orig.) [de

  10. Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ledley, Tamara S.; Sundquist, Eric; Schwartz, Stephen; Hall, Dorothy K.; Fellows, Jack; Killeen, Timothy

    1999-01-01

    The American Geophysical Union (AGU), as a scientific organization devoted to research on the Earth and space sciences, provides current scientific information to the public on issues pertinent to geophysics. The Council of the AGU approved a position statement on Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases in December 1998. The statement, together with a short summary of the procedures that were followed in its preparation, review, and adoption were published in the February 2, 1999 issue of Eos ([AGU, 1999]. The present article reviews scientific understanding of this issue as presented in peer-reviewed publications that serves as the underlying basis of the position statement.

  11. Climate change science - beyond IPCC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicholls, N.

    2007-01-01

    -average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns; For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2 0 C per decade is projected for a range of emission scenarios. Even if the concentrations of all greenhouse gases and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1 0 C per decade would be expected; Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century; Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries due to the time scales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilised. The question of whether the IPCC Assessment is conservative will be considered, and those aspects of climate change on which there is still considerable uncertainty and a lack of consensus will be noted and discussed

  12. Reconstructing Climate Change: Not All Glaciers Suitable

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yde, Jacob C.; Paasche, Øyvind

    2010-05-01

    Glaciers are among the most trusted indicators of climate change, not just because they retreat due to the current rise in global temperatures but also because of their central role in reconstructing past climates. Glaciers come in many forms, and their sensitivity to climate change depends partly on the physics governing the individual glacier, implying that a response can be fast or slow, straightforward or complex, which in sum suggests that not all glaciers are equally suitable for reconstructing past and present climate conditions. In particular, surging and debris-covered glaciers may especially yield misleading results (Figure 1).

  13. Plant phenotypic plasticity in a changing climate

    OpenAIRE

    Nicotra, Adrienne B.; Atkin, Owen K.; Bonser, Stephen P.; Davidson, Amy M.; Finnegan, Jean; Mathesius, Ulrike; Poot, Pieter; Purugganan, Michael D.; Valladares, Fernando; van Kleunen, Mark

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is altering the availability of resources and the conditions that are crucial to plant performance. One way plants will respond to these changes is through environmentally induced shifts in phenotype(phenotypic plasticity). Understanding plastic responses is crucial for predicting and managing the effects of climate change on native species as well as cropplants. Here,we provide a toolbox with definitions of key theoretical elements and a synthesis of the current understanding ...

  14. Climate Change Communication in Norway

    OpenAIRE

    Ryghaug, Marianne; Skjølsvold, Tomas Moe

    2016-01-01

    Climate change research, activities, and initiatives in Norway started relatively late, by international comparison. From the beginnings in the early 2000s, research has mainly followed two paths: First, media studies, typically focusing on traditional newspaper representations of climate change and the surrounding debate, and second, research on public perceptions of climate change. Initially, the research field was dominated by media studies and science and technology studies (STS). As clim...

  15. Military Adaptation to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-01

    of Defense United States of America Environment, Energy Security and Sustainability Symposium (May 9-12, 2011) Military Adaptation to Climate Change ...2011 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2011 to 00-00-2011 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Military Adaptation to Climate Change 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER... climate change . …” Remarks at the Halifax International Security Forum, Halifax, Nova Scotia Nov 2009 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review For the first

  16. Urban growth and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Kahn, Matthew E.

    2011-01-01

    Between 1950 and 2030, the share of the world's population that lives in cities is predicted to grow from 30% to 60%. This urbanization has consequences for the likelihood of climate change and for the social costs that climate change will impose on the world's quality of life. This paper examines how urbanization affects greenhouse gas production, and it studies how urbanites in the developed and developing world will adapt to the challenges posed by climate change.

  17. Climate change, environment and development

    OpenAIRE

    Okereke, Chukwumerije; Massaquoi, Abu-Bakar S.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change, a quintessential environmental problem, is generally recognised as the most important development challenge in the 21st century (IPCC, 2014). In addition to acknowledging its many significant direct consequences, climate change is increasingly used to frame discussions on other important global challenges, such as health, energy and food security. This chapter provides understanding of the intricate and complex relationship between climate change, environment and development.

  18. Navigating SA's climate change legislation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dickey, Suzanne

    2006-01-01

    It is proposed that there should be a legislation to address climate change and Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Bill. South Australian Government Greenhouse Strategy and climate change legislation in light of the far-reaching implications this legislation could have on clients, who face the impacts of climate change in the business and natural environment. It is a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in South Australia by 2050 to 60 per cent of 1990 levels

  19. Global change of the climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moharam-nejad, Naser.

    1995-01-01

    Greenhouse effect is defined. greenhouse gases which are capable to produce greenhouse effect is mentioned. The production of greenhouse effects depends on the following factors; The amount of discharge to the atmosphere, Concentration, Life span, stability, Absorption and Emission. The effect of global change of climate on agriculture and living organisms is discussed. Global actions related to climate change and national procedures are described. The aim of climate change convention is given and the important points of convention is also mentioned

  20. Adapting agriculture to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Howden, S.M.; Soussana, J.F.; Tubiello, F.N.; Chhetri, N.; Dunlop, M.; Meinke, H.B.

    2007-01-01

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of

  1. Floods in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theresa K. Andersen; Marshall J. Shepherd

    2013-01-01

    Atmospheric warming and associated hydrological changes have implications for regional flood intensity and frequency. Climate models and hydrological models have the ability to integrate various contributing factors and assess potential changes to hydrology at global to local scales through the century. This survey of floods in a changing climate reviews flood...

  2. Global climate change and rangelands

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    While efforts to minimise climate change are vital, some degree of change is already inevitable. The key questions for rangelands are no longer whether climate change will occur, but how to adapt to it, and if possible, how to mitigate its negative impacts. The presentations in this session will move beyond the prediction of ...

  3. Climate Change, Polar Bears and their management

    OpenAIRE

    Derenchenko, Liza

    2010-01-01

    This is a literature study of polar bears in the context of climate change: what kind of creatures are polar bears, what are the main interpretations of current climate change, how might the polar bear adapt to these changes (feeding strategies) and how are the bears being managed (hunting)? These are relevant questions , since climate change is on the agenda, and polar bears being the apex predators of the Arctic are a key representation of the wildlife there. The third element of polar bear...

  4. Connecting today's climates to future climate analogs to facilitate movement of species under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Littlefield, Caitlin E; McRae, Brad H; Michalak, Julia L; Lawler, Joshua J; Carroll, Carlos

    2017-12-01

    Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few researchers have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. We identified key areas likely to facilitate climate-induced species' movement across western North America. Using historical climate data sets and future climate projections, we mapped potential species' movement routes that link current climate conditions to analogous climate conditions in the future (i.e., future climate analogs) with a novel moving-window analysis based on electrical circuit theory. In addition to tracing shifting climates, the approach accounted for landscape permeability and empirically derived species' dispersal capabilities. We compared connectivity maps generated with our climate-change-informed approach with maps of connectivity based solely on the degree of human modification of the landscape. Including future climate projections in connectivity models substantially shifted and constrained priority areas for movement to a smaller proportion of the landscape than when climate projections were not considered. Potential movement, measured as current flow, decreased in all ecoregions when climate projections were included, particularly when dispersal was limited, which made climate analogs inaccessible. Many areas emerged as important for connectivity only when climate change was modeled in 2 time steps rather than in a single time step. Our results illustrate that movement routes needed to track changing climatic conditions may differ from those that connect present-day landscapes. Incorporating future climate projections into connectivity modeling is an important step toward facilitating successful species movement and population persistence in a changing climate. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

  5. Cinematic climate change, a promising perspective on climate change communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakellari, Maria

    2015-10-01

    Previous research findings display that after having seen popular climate change films, people became more concerned, more motivated and more aware of climate change, but changes in behaviors were short-term. This article performs a meta-analysis of three popular climate change films, The Day after Tomorrow (2005), An Inconvenient Truth (2006), and The Age of Stupid (2009), drawing on research in social psychology, human agency, and media effect theory in order to formulate a rationale about how mass media communication shapes our everyday life experience. This article highlights the factors with which science blends in the reception of the three climate change films and expands the range of options considered in order to encourage people to engage in climate change mitigation actions. © The Author(s) 2014.

  6. Climate change and moral judgement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markowitz, Ezra M.; Shariff, Azim F.

    2012-04-01

    Converging evidence from the behavioural and brain sciences suggests that the human moral judgement system is not well equipped to identify climate change -- a complex, large-scale and unintentionally caused phenomenon -- as an important moral imperative. As climate change fails to generate strong moral intuitions, it does not motivate an urgent need for action in the way that other moral imperatives do. We review six reasons why climate change poses significant challenges to our moral judgement system and describe six strategies that communicators might use to confront these challenges. Enhancing moral intuitions about climate change may motivate greater support for ameliorative actions and policies.

  7. Mesocosms Reveal Ecological Surprises from Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Damien A Fordham

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Understanding, predicting, and mitigating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity poses one of the most crucial challenges this century. Currently, we know more about how future climates are likely to shift across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes. Two recent studies show how mesocosm experiments can hasten understanding of the ecological consequences of climate change on species' extinction risk, community structure, and ecosystem functions. Using a large-scale terrestrial warming experiment, Bestion et al. provide the first direct evidence that future global warming can increase extinction risk for temperate ectotherms. Using aquatic mesocosms, Yvon-Durocher et al. show that human-induced climate change could, in some cases, actually enhance the diversity of local communities, increasing productivity. Blending these theoretical and empirical results with computational models will improve forecasts of biodiversity loss and altered ecosystem processes due to climate change.

  8. Mesocosms Reveal Ecological Surprises from Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fordham, Damien A

    2015-12-01

    Understanding, predicting, and mitigating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity poses one of the most crucial challenges this century. Currently, we know more about how future climates are likely to shift across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes. Two recent studies show how mesocosm experiments can hasten understanding of the ecological consequences of climate change on species' extinction risk, community structure, and ecosystem functions. Using a large-scale terrestrial warming experiment, Bestion et al. provide the first direct evidence that future global warming can increase extinction risk for temperate ectotherms. Using aquatic mesocosms, Yvon-Durocher et al. show that human-induced climate change could, in some cases, actually enhance the diversity of local communities, increasing productivity. Blending these theoretical and empirical results with computational models will improve forecasts of biodiversity loss and altered ecosystem processes due to climate change.

  9. Mitigating climate change: The Philippine case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia, J.L.L.

    1998-01-01

    The Government of the Philippines signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate change on June 12, 1992 and the Philippine Congress ratified it in 1994. The Philippine Government has also subsequently created the Inter-Agency Committee on Climate Change (IACCC). The GOP is currently preparing the Philippine Country Study to address climate change. The first phase of the work was financed by a grant from the US Country Studies Program which is led by the US Department of Energy. The Study includes the following elements: a) development of a National Inventory of GHG emission and Sinks; b) vulnerability assessment and evaluation of adaptations of coastal resources; c) identification of alternative programs and measures to promote mitigation and/or adaptation to climate change; d) public information and education campaign; and e) development of the National Action Plan on Climate Change. (au)

  10. WATER RESOURCES STATUS AND AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT IN CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR BEAS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH WESTERN HIMALAYA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. P. Aggarwal

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The water resources status and availability of any river basin is of primary importance for overall and sustainable development of any river basin. This study has been done in Beas river basin which is located in North Western Himalaya for assessing the status of water resources in present and future climate change scenarios. In this study hydrological modelling approach has been used for quantifying the water balance components of Beas river basin upto Pandoh. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC model has been used in energy balance mode for Beas river basin at 1km grid scale. The VIC model has been run with snow elevation zones files to simulate the snow module of VIC. The model was run with National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP forcing data (Tmax, Tmin, Rainfall and wind speed at 0.5degree resolution from 1 Jan. 1999 to 31 Dec 2006 for calibration purpose. The additional component of glacier melt was added into overall river runoff using semi-empirical approach utilizing air temperature and glacier type and extent data. The ground water component is computed from overall recharge of ground water by water balance approach. The overall water balance approach is validated with river discharge data provided by Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB from 1994-2014. VIC routing module was used to assess pixel wise flow availability at daily, monthly and annual time scales. The mean monthly flow at Pandoh during study period varied from 19 - 1581 m3/s from VIC and 50 to 1556 m3/sec from observation data, with minimum water flow occurring in month of January and maximum flow in month of August with annual R2 of 0.68. The future climate change data is taken from CORDEX database. The climate model of NOAA-GFDL-ESM2M for IPCC RCP scenario 4.5 and 8.5 were used for South Asia at 0.44 deg. grid from year 2006 to 2100. The climate forcing data for VIC model was prepared using daily maximum and minimum near surface air temperature, daily

  11. Water Resources Status and Availability Assessment in Current and Future Climate Change Scenarios for Beas River Basin of North Western Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggarwal, S. P.; Thakur, P. K.; Garg, V.; Nikam, B. R.; Chouksey, A.; Dhote, P.; Bhattacharya, T.

    2016-10-01

    The water resources status and availability of any river basin is of primary importance for overall and sustainable development of any river basin. This study has been done in Beas river basin which is located in North Western Himalaya for assessing the status of water resources in present and future climate change scenarios. In this study hydrological modelling approach has been used for quantifying the water balance components of Beas river basin upto Pandoh. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model has been used in energy balance mode for Beas river basin at 1km grid scale. The VIC model has been run with snow elevation zones files to simulate the snow module of VIC. The model was run with National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) forcing data (Tmax, Tmin, Rainfall and wind speed at 0.5degree resolution) from 1 Jan. 1999 to 31 Dec 2006 for calibration purpose. The additional component of glacier melt was added into overall river runoff using semi-empirical approach utilizing air temperature and glacier type and extent data. The ground water component is computed from overall recharge of ground water by water balance approach. The overall water balance approach is validated with river discharge data provided by Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB) from 1994-2014. VIC routing module was used to assess pixel wise flow availability at daily, monthly and annual time scales. The mean monthly flow at Pandoh during study period varied from 19 - 1581 m3/s from VIC and 50 to 1556 m3/sec from observation data, with minimum water flow occurring in month of January and maximum flow in month of August with annual R2 of 0.68. The future climate change data is taken from CORDEX database. The climate model of NOAA-GFDL-ESM2M for IPCC RCP scenario 4.5 and 8.5 were used for South Asia at 0.44 deg. grid from year 2006 to 2100. The climate forcing data for VIC model was prepared using daily maximum and minimum near surface air temperature, daily precipitation and

  12. Climate change and human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warren, John A; Berner, James E; Curtis, Tine

    2005-01-01

    In northern regions, climate change can include changes in precipitation magnitude and frequency, reductions in sea ice extent and thickness, and climate warming and cooling. These changes can increase the frequency and severity of storms, flooding, or erosion; other changes may include drought...... or degradation of permafrost. Climate change can result in damage to sanitation infrastructure resulting in the spread of disease or threatening a community's ability to maintain its economy, geographic location and cultural tradition, leading to mental stress. Through monitoring of some basic indicators...... communities can begin to develop a response to climate change. With this information, planners, engineers, health care professionals and governments can begin to develop approaches to address the challenges related to climate change....

  13. Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate

  14. Climate change, conflict and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowles, Devin C; Butler, Colin D; Morisetti, Neil

    2015-10-01

    Future climate change is predicted to diminish essential natural resource availability in many regions and perhaps globally. The resulting scarcity of water, food and livelihoods could lead to increasingly desperate populations that challenge governments, enhancing the risk of intra- and interstate conflict. Defence establishments and some political scientists view climate change as a potential threat to peace. While the medical literature increasingly recognises climate change as a fundamental health risk, the dimension of climate change-associated conflict has so far received little attention, despite its profound health implications. Many analysts link climate change with a heightened risk of conflict via causal pathways which involve diminishing or changing resource availability. Plausible consequences include: increased frequency of civil conflict in developing countries; terrorism, asymmetric warfare, state failure; and major regional conflicts. The medical understanding of these threats is inadequate, given the scale of health implications. The medical and public health communities have often been reluctant to interpret conflict as a health issue. However, at times, medical workers have proven powerful and effective peace advocates, most notably with regard to nuclear disarmament. The public is more motivated to mitigate climate change when it is framed as a health issue. Improved medical understanding of the association between climate change and conflict could strengthen mitigation efforts and increase cooperation to cope with the climate change that is now inevitable. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

  15. Climate Change and Collective Violence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Barry S; Sidel, Victor W; Patz, Jonathan A

    2017-03-20

    Climate change is causing increases in temperature, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and other environmental impacts. It is also causing or contributing to heat-related disorders, respiratory and allergic disorders, infectious diseases, malnutrition due to food insecurity, and mental health disorders. In addition, increasing evidence indicates that climate change is causally associated with collective violence, generally in combination with other causal factors. Increased temperatures and extremes of precipitation with their associated consequences, including resultant scarcity of cropland and other key environmental resources, are major pathways by which climate change leads to collective violence. Public health professionals can help prevent collective violence due to climate change (a) by supporting mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, (b) by promoting adaptation measures to address the consequences of climate change and to improve community resilience, and (c) by addressing underlying risk factors for collective violence, such as poverty and socioeconomic disparities.

  16. Climate Change and Poverty Nexus

    OpenAIRE

    O. Babalola Oladapo; A. Igbatayo Samuel

    2014-01-01

    Climate change and poverty are global issues which cannot be waved aside in welfare of the ever increasing population. The causes / consequences are far more elaborate in developing countries, including Nigeria, which poses threats to the existence of man and his environment. The dominant role of agriculture makes it obvious that even minor climate deteriorations can cause devastating socio-economic consequences. Policies to curb the climate change by reducing the consumption of fossil fuels ...

  17. Climate variability and change

    CERN Document Server

    Grassl, H

    1998-01-01

    Many factors influence climate. The present knowledge concerning the climate relevance of earth orbital parameters, solar luminosity, volcanoes, internal interactions, and human activities will be reported as well as the vulnerability of emission scenarios for given stabilization goals for greenhouse gas concentrations and the main points of the Kyoto Protocol

  18. Ground Water and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; hide

    2013-01-01

    As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

  19. Mapping the climate change challenge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hallegatte, Stephane; Rogelj, Joeri; Allen, Myles; Clarke, Leon; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Field, Christopher B.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Kesteren, Van Line; Knutti, Reto; Mach, Katharine J.; Mastrandrea, Michael; Michel, Adrien; Minx, Jan; Oppenheimer, Michael; Plattner, Gian Kasper; Riahi, Keywan; Schaeffer, Michiel; Stocker, Thomas F.; Vuuren, van Detlef P.

    2016-01-01

    Discussions on a long-term global goal to limit climate change, in the form of an upper limit to warming, were only partially resolved at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations in Paris, 2015. Such a political agreement must be informed by scientific knowledge. One

  20. Mapping the climate change challenge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hallegatte, Stephane; Rogelj, Joeri; Allen, Myles; Clarke, Leon; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Field, Christopher B.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Van Kesteren, Line; Knutti, Reto; Mach, Katharine J.; Mastrandrea, Michael; Michel, Adrien; Minx, Jan; Oppenheimer, Michael; Plattner, Gian Kasper; Riahi, Keywan; Schaeffer, Michiel; Stocker, Thomas F.; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-01-01

    Discussions on a long-term global goal to limit climate change, in the form of an upper limit to warming, were only partially resolved at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations in Paris, 2015. Such a political agreement must be informed by scientific knowledge. One

  1. Energy, climate change and sequestration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simioni, M.; Stevens, G.W.

    2007-01-01

    There is now very little debate that the earth's climate is changing, and the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence. Many causes have been postulated and speculation about the eventual outcomes abounds. Whatever eventuates, society will have to adapt to a new and changing climate

  2. Climate change, responsibility, and justice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamieson, Dale

    2010-09-01

    In this paper I make the following claims. In order to see anthropogenic climate change as clearly involving moral wrongs and global injustices, we will have to revise some central concepts in these domains. Moreover, climate change threatens another value ("respect for nature") that cannot easily be taken up by concerns of global justice or moral responsibility.

  3. Climate change challenges for SEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    This paper takes a theoretical perspective on the challenges that climate changes pose for SEA. The theoretical framework used is the sociologist Ulrich Beck’s theory of risk society and the aspects that characterise this society. Climate change is viewed as a risk, and the theory is used to derive...

  4. Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2017-10-02

    Oct 2, 2017 ... consistent with this view is the UNDP-UNEP concept which describes mainstreaming in climate change adaptation as the iterative process of integrating climate change adaptation into development policy-making, planning, budgeting, implementation and monitoring processes at national, sector and ...

  5. Generating Arguments about Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, Barry; Grooms, Jonathon; Sampson, Victor; Oliveri, Robin

    2012-01-01

    This unit is a different and fun way to engage students with an extremely important topic, climate change, which cuts across scientific and nonscientific disciplines. While climate change itself may not be listed in the curriculum of every science class, the authors contend that such a unit is appropriate for virtually any science curriculum.…

  6. Climate Change, Growth, and Poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Hull, Katy

    2008-01-01

    Equity emerged as the principal theme during the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) week session 'climate change, growth and poverty,' where presenters addressed the distributional consequences of climate change, as well as countries' unequal capacity to cope with the twin challenges of adaptation and mitigation. They highlighted actions to strengthen the global knowledge bas...

  7. Climate indices of Iran under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    alireza kochaki

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Global warming will affect all climatic variables and particularly rainfall patterns. The purpose of present investigation was to predict climatic parameters of Iran under future climate change and to compare them with the present conditions. For this reason, UKMO General Circulation Model was used for the year 2025 and 2050. By running the model, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and also maximum monthly rainfall for the representative climate stations were calculated and finally the effects of climate change on these variables based on pre-determined scenarios was evaluated. The results showed that averaged over all stations, mean temperature increase for spring in the year 2025 and 2050 will be 3.1 and 3.9, for summer 3.8 and 4.7, for autumn 2.3 and 3 and for winter 2.0 and 2.4 ºC, respectively. This increase will be more pronounced from North to the South and from East to the West parts of the country. Mean decrease in autumn rainfall for the target years of 2025 and 2050 will be 8 and 11 percent, respectively. This decrease is negligible for summer months. Length of dry season for the years 2025 and 2050 will be increased, respectively up to 214 and 223 days due to combined effects of increased temperature and decreased rainfall.

  8. Food security under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, Thomas W.

    2016-01-01

    Using food prices to assess climate change impacts on food security is misleading. Differential impacts on income require a broader measure of household well-being, such as changes in absolute poverty.

  9. Climate change and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, M.

    2000-04-01

    The nuclear industry has increased its efforts to have nuclear power plants integrated into the post- Kyoto negotiating process of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) states: ''For many reasons, current and future nuclear energy projects are a superior method of generating emission credits that must be considered as the US expands the use of market- based mechanisms designed around emission credit creation and trading to achieve environmental goals ''. The NEI considers that nuclear energy should be allowed to enter all stages of the Kyoto ''flexibility Mechanisms'': emissions trading, joint implementation and the Clean Development Mechanism. The industry sees the operation of nuclear reactors as emission ''avoidance actions'' and believes that increasing the generation of nuclear power above the 1990 baseline year either through extension and renewal of operating licenses or new nuclear plant should be accepted under the flexibility mechanisms in the same way as wind, solar and hydro power. For the time being, there is no clear definition of the framework conditions for operating the flexibility mechanisms. However, eligible mechanisms must contribute to the ultimate objective of the Climate Convention of preventing ''dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system''. The information presented in the following sections of this report underlines that nuclear power is not a sustainable source of energy, for many reasons. In conclusion, an efficient greenhouse gas abatement strategy will be based on energy efficiency and not on the use of nuclear power. (author)

  10. Can beaches survive climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Limber, Patrick

    2017-04-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is driving sea level rise, leading to numerous impacts on the coastal zone, such as increased coastal flooding, beach erosion, cliff failure, saltwater intrusion in aquifers, and groundwater inundation. Many beaches around the world are currently experiencing chronic erosion as a result of gradual, present-day rates of sea level rise (about 3 mm/year) and human-driven restrictions in sand supply (e.g., harbor dredging and river damming). Accelerated sea level rise threatens to worsen coastal erosion and challenge the very existence of natural beaches throughout the world. Understanding and predicting the rates of sea level rise and coastal erosion depends on integrating data on natural systems with computer simulations. Although many computer modeling approaches are available to simulate shoreline change, few are capable of making reliable long-term predictions needed for full adaption or to enhance resilience. Recent advancements have allowed convincing decadal to centennial-scale predictions of shoreline evolution. For example, along 500 km of the Southern California coast, a new model featuring data assimilation predicts that up to 67% of beaches may completely erode by 2100 without large-scale human interventions. In spite of recent advancements, coastal evolution models must continue to improve in their theoretical framework, quantification of accuracy and uncertainty, computational efficiency, predictive capability, and integration with observed data, in order to meet the scientific and engineering challenges produced by a changing climate.

  11. Malaria ecology and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCord, G. C.

    2016-05-01

    Understanding the costs that climate change will exact on society is crucial to devising an appropriate policy response. One of the channels through while climate change will affect human society is through vector-borne diseases whose epidemiology is conditioned by ambient ecology. This paper introduces the literature on malaria, its cost on society, and the consequences of climate change to the physics community in hopes of inspiring synergistic research in the area of climate change and health. It then demonstrates the use of one ecological indicator of malaria suitability to provide an order-of-magnitude assessment of how climate change might affect the malaria burden. The average of Global Circulation Model end-of-century predictions implies a 47% average increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease in today's malarious areas, significantly complicating malaria elimination efforts.

  12. Climate Change: Integrating Science, Economics, and Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Nakicenovic, N.; Nordhaus, W.D.; Richels, R.; Toth, F.L.

    1996-01-01

    This volume reports on the proceedings of the third international workshop on "Climate Change: Integrating Science, Economics, and Policy" held at IIASA in March 1996. Currently, it is widely recognized in both the analytical and policy communities that the complex issues surrounding the prospect of climate change and response measures and policies cannot be adequately assessed from the perspective of any single discipline in either the natural or social sciences, and that these issues cannot...

  13. Climate change experiments in Hamburg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubasch, U. [DKRZ, Hamburg (Germany)

    1995-12-31

    Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the simulations with present day conditions (1980-1990) is too late, because then a considerable part of the warming since the beginning of the industrialization (ca. 1750) has been neglected. Furthermore it has only recently become clear that the sulphat-aerosols play an important role in the present day climate and in the future climate. The effect of the sulphat aerosols has first been simulated in a number of equilibrium simulations with mixed layer models, but nowadays with globally coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models

  14. Climate change and dead zones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altieri, Andrew H; Gedan, Keryn B

    2015-04-01

    Estuaries and coastal seas provide valuable ecosystem services but are particularly vulnerable to the co-occurring threats of climate change and oxygen-depleted dead zones. We analyzed the severity of climate change predicted for existing dead zones, and found that 94% of dead zones are in regions that will experience at least a 2 °C temperature increase by the end of the century. We then reviewed how climate change will exacerbate hypoxic conditions through oceanographic, ecological, and physiological processes. We found evidence that suggests numerous climate variables including temperature, ocean acidification, sea-level rise, precipitation, wind, and storm patterns will affect dead zones, and that each of those factors has the potential to act through multiple pathways on both oxygen availability and ecological responses to hypoxia. Given the variety and strength of the mechanisms by which climate change exacerbates hypoxia, and the rates at which climate is changing, we posit that climate change variables are contributing to the dead zone epidemic by acting synergistically with one another and with recognized anthropogenic triggers of hypoxia including eutrophication. This suggests that a multidisciplinary, integrated approach that considers the full range of climate variables is needed to track and potentially reverse the spread of dead zones. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Climate change and children's health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernstein, Aaron S; Myers, Samuel S

    2011-04-01

    To present the latest data that demonstrate how climate change affects children's health and to identify the principal ways in which climate change puts children's health at risk. Data continue to emerge that further implicate climate change as contributing to health burdens in children. Climate models have become even more sophisticated and consistently forecast that greenhouse gas emissions will lead to higher mean temperatures that promote more intense storms and droughts, both of which have profound implications for child health. Recent climate models shed light upon the spread of vector-borne disease, including Lyme disease in North America and malaria in Africa. Modeling studies have found that conditions conducive to forest fires, which generate harmful air pollutants and damage agriculture, are likely to become more prevalent in this century due to the effects of greenhouse gases added to earth's atmosphere. Through many pathways, and in particular via placing additional stress upon the availability of food, clean air, and clean water and by potentially expanding the burden of disease from certain vector-borne diseases, climate change represents a major threat to child health. Pediatricians have already seen and will increasingly see the adverse health effects of climate change in their practices. Because of this, and many other reasons, pediatricians have a unique capacity to help resolve the climate change problem.

  16. Land use change affecting our (modelled) climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiß, M.; van den Hurk, B.

    2012-04-01

    Up until now, climate models often have used a static representation of land cover characteristics and only recently, the impact of a changing land surface on climate and climate simulations has attracted more attention. With climate scenarios to the fifth Assessment Report currently in preparation, this time considering different representative concentration pathways and associated land cover scenarios, we are still building up process-knowledge on the strength of land-atmosphere coupling. This study contributes to our understanding of the impact of land cover changes on the atmosphere by running global simulations with the EC-Earth climate model, using different historical land use data as well as two land use scenarios to analyse the following aspects in more detail: On the one hand the impact of land cover change via modified albedo, and on the other hand its impact via modified surface resistance, rooting depth and soil-moisture capacity on available energy, evapotranspiration, wind and temperature.

  17. Forest disturbances under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidl, Rupert; Thom, Dominik; Kautz, Markus; Martin-Benito, Dario; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Wild, Jan; Ascoli, Davide; Petr, Michal; Honkaniemi, Juha; Lexer, Manfred J.; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Mairota, Paola; Svoboda, Miroslav; Fabrika, Marek; Nagel, Thomas A.; Reyer, Christopher P. O.

    2017-06-01

    Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests.

  18. Adapting agriculture to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howden, S Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

    2007-12-11

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.

  19. Climate change and the Great Barrier Reef

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, Johanna; Marshall, Paul

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: Climate change is now recognised as the greatest long-term threat to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Managers face a future in which the impacts of climate change on tropical marine ecosystems are becoming increasingly frequent and severe. Further degradation is inevitable as the climate continues to change but the extent of the decline will depend on the rate and magnitude of climate change and the resilience of the ecosystem. Changes to the ecosystem have implications for the industries and regional communities that depend on the GBR. Climate projections for the GBR region include increasing air and sea temperatures, ocean acidification, nutrient enrichment (via changes in rainfall), altered light levels, more extreme weather events, changes to ocean circulation and sea level rise. Impacts have already been observed, with severe coral bleaching events in 1998 and 2002, and mass mortalities of seabirds linked to anomalously warm summer conditions. Climate change also poses significant threats to the industries and communities that depend on the GBR ecosystem, both directly and indirectly through loss of natural resources; industries such as recreational and commercial fishing, and tourism, which contributes to a regional tourism industry worth $6.1 billion (Access Economics 2005). A vulnerability assessment undertaken by leading experts in climate and marine science identified climate sensitivities for GBR species, habitats, key processes, GBR industries and communities (Johnson and Marshall 2007). This information has been used to develop a Climate Change Action Plan for the GBR. The Action Plan is a five-year program aimed at facilitating targeted science, building a resilient ecosystem, assisting adaptation of industries and communities, and reducing climate footprints. The Action Plan identifies strategies to review current management arrangements and raise awareness of the issue in order to work towards a resilient ecosystem. Integral to

  20. Plant phenotypic plasticity in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicotra, A B; Atkin, O K; Bonser, S P; Davidson, A M; Finnegan, E J; Mathesius, U; Poot, P; Purugganan, M D; Richards, C L; Valladares, F; van Kleunen, M

    2010-12-01

    Climate change is altering the availability of resources and the conditions that are crucial to plant performance. One way plants will respond to these changes is through environmentally induced shifts in phenotype (phenotypic plasticity). Understanding plastic responses is crucial for predicting and managing the effects of climate change on native species as well as crop plants. Here, we provide a toolbox with definitions of key theoretical elements and a synthesis of the current understanding of the molecular and genetic mechanisms underlying plasticity relevant to climate change. By bringing ecological, evolutionary, physiological and molecular perspectives together, we hope to provide clear directives for future research and stimulate cross-disciplinary dialogue on the relevance of phenotypic plasticity under climate change. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. The Russian Federation and the International Climate Change Regime

    OpenAIRE

    GORDEEVA, Yelena

    2014-01-01

    Although the Russian Federation (RF) is one of the key players in the global climate change politics, the country is rather discreet in binding itself with new international climate obligations. Often the country is criticized for its weak national climate change law and policy. To provide current context as regards the status of Russian climate change mitigation efforts, this article analyzes the RF's climate law and policy at the domestic and international levels. It does so by first invest...

  2. Climate change with Korea as the center

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Yeon Ok

    1998-04-01

    This book deals with climate change with Korea as the center, which is divided into ten chapters. It explain climate change by human life. The contents of this book are climate change, climate before human period, great ice age of prehistoric period, prehistoric times of last glacial era, climate change in historical era, change during observation time for 100 years, warming period, global environment period, the cause of climate change and climate and human. It has reference and an index.

  3. Volcanic activity and climatic changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryson, R A; Goodman, B M

    1980-03-07

    Radiocarbon dates of volcanic activity suggest variations that appear to be related to climatic changes. Historical eruption records also show variations on the scale of years to centuries. These records can be combined with simple climatic models to estimate the impact of various volcanic activity levels. From this analysis it appears that climatic prediction in the range of 2 years to many decades requires broad-scale volcanic activity prediction. Statistical analysis of the volcanic record suggests that some predictability is possible.

  4. Climate Change and World Agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Parry, M.L.

    1990-01-01

    In 1990 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) completed its report on the greenhouse effect. The IPCC had been set up under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organisation and the United Nations Environment Programme, to examine how climate and sea level might change, what might be the impact of these changes and what could be the most appropriate response to them. IPCC Working Groups tackled each of these three tasks. Working Group II (Impacts) concluded that greenhouse ...

  5. Climate Change and Global Wine Quality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, G.V. [Department of Geography, Southern Oregon University, 1250 Siskiyou Blvd, Ashland, Oregon, 97520 (United States); White, M.A. [Department of Aquatic, Watershed, and Earth Resources, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, 84322 (United States); Cooper, O.R. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences CIRES, University of Colorado/NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, 80305 (United States); Storchmann, K. [Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, 06520 (United States)

    2005-12-01

    From 1950 to 1999 the majority of the world's highest quality wine-producing regions experienced growing season warming trends. Vintage quality ratings during this same time period increased significantly while year-to-year variation declined. While improved winemaking knowledge and husbandry practices contributed to the better vintages it was shown that climate had, and will likely always have, a significant role in quality variations. This study revealed that the impacts of climate change are not likely to be uniform across all varieties and regions. Currently, many European regions appear to be at or near their optimum growing season temperatures, while the relationships are less defined in the New World viticulture regions. For future climates, model output for global wine producing regions predicts an average warming of 2C in the next 50 yr. For regions producing high-quality grapes at the margins of their climatic limits, these results suggest that future climate change will exceed a climatic threshold such that the ripening of balanced fruit required for existing varieties and wine styles will become progressively more difficult. In other regions, historical and predicted climate changes could push some regions into more optimal climatic regimes for the production of current varietals. In addition, the warmer conditions could lead to more poleward locations potentially becoming more conducive to grape growing and wine production.

  6. Turning points in climate change adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saskia Elisabeth. Werners

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Concerned decision makers increasingly pose questions as to whether current management practices are able to cope with climate change and increased climate variability. This signifies a shift in the framing of climate change from asking what its potential impacts are to asking whether it induces policy failure and unacceptable change. In this paper, we explore the background, feasibility, and consequences of this new framing. We focus on the specific situation in which a social-political threshold of concern is likely to be exceeded as a result of climate change, requiring consideration of alternative strategies. Action is imperative when such a situation is conceivable, and at this point climate change becomes particularly relevant to decision makers. We call this situation an "adaptation turning point." The assessment of adaptation turning points converts uncertainty surrounding the extent of a climate impact into a time range over which it is likely that specific thresholds will be exceeded. This can then be used to take adaptive action. Despite the difficulty in identifying adaptation turning points and the relative newness of the approach, experience so far suggests that the assessment generates a meaningful dialogue between stakeholders and scientists. Discussion revolves around the amount of change that is acceptable; how likely it is that unacceptable, or more favorable, conditions will be reached; and the adaptation pathways that need to be considered under these circumstances. Defining and renegotiating policy objectives under climate change are important topics in the governance of adaptation.

  7. Climate Change and Food Safety: Beyond Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziska, L. H.; Crimmins, A. R.

    2016-12-01

    There is merited interest in determining the extent of climate disruption on agricultural production and food security. However, additional aspects of food security, including food safety, nutrition and distribution have, overall, received less attention. Beginning in 2013, the U.S. Global Change Research Program as part of the ongoing National Climate Assessment, began a directed effort to evaluate the vulnerability of climate change to these under-represented aspects of food security for developed countries. Based on this extensive review of current science, several key findings were developed: (a) Climate change, including rising temperatures and changes in weather extremes, is expected to increase the exposure of food to certain pathogens and toxins; (b) Climate change will increase human exposure to chemical contaminants in food through several pathways; (c) The nutritional value of agriculturally important food crops, including cereals, will decrease in response to the ongoing increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide; (d) Increases in the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events associated with climate change may disrupt food distribution. These findings will be presented as a means to describe the state of the science and expand on food security research in the broader context of public health and climate change.

  8. Technologies for climate change adaptation. Agriculture sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, X. (ed.) (UNEP Risoe Centre, Roskilde (Denmark)); Clements, R.; Quezada, A.; Torres, J. (Practical Action Latin America, Lima (Peru)); Haggar, J. (Univ. of Greenwich, London (United Kingdom))

    2011-08-15

    This guidebook presents a selection of technologies for climate change adaptation in the agriculture sector. A set of 22 adaptation technologies are showcased. These are based primarily on the principles of agroecology, but also include scientific technologies of climate and biological sciences complemented by important sociological and institutional capacity building processes that are required for climate change to function. The technologies cover: 1) Planning for climate change and variability. 2) Sustainable water use and management. 3) Soil management. 4) Sustainable crop management. 5) Sustainable livestock management. 6) Sustainable farming systems. 7) Capacity building and stakeholder organisation. Technologies that tend to homogenise the natural environment and agricultural production have low possibilities of success in environmental stress conditions that are likely to result from climate change. On the other hand, technologies that allow for, and promote diversity are more likely to provide a strategy which strengthens agricultural production in the face of uncertain future climate change scenarios. The 22 technologies showcased in this guidebook have been selected because they facilitate the conservation and restoration of diversity while also providing opportunities for increasing agricultural productivity. Many of these technologies are not new to agricultural production practices, but they are implemented based on the assessment of current and possible future impacts of climate change in a particular location. agroecology is an approach that encompasses concepts of sustainable production and biodiversity promotion and therefore provides a useful framework for identifying and selecting appropriate adaptation technologies for the agriculture sector. The guidebook provides a systematic analysis of the most relevant information available on climate change adaptation technologies in the agriculture sector. It has been compiled based on a literature

  9. Conservation policies and planning under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strange, Niels; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Bladt, Jesper Stentoft

    2011-01-01

    Biodiversity conservation policies focus on securing the survival of species and habitats according to their current distribution. This basic premise may be inappropriate for halting biodiversity decline under the dynamic changes caused by climate change. This study explores a dynamic spatial...... conservation prioritization problem where climate change gradually changes the future habitat suitability of a site’ current species. This has implications for survival probability, as well as for species that potentially immigrate to the site. The problem is explored using a set of heuristics for both of two...... networks. Climate change induced shifts in the suitability of habitats for species may increase the value of such adaptive strategies, the benefit decreasing with increasing migration probabilities and species distribution dynamics....

  10. Conservation policies and planning under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strange, Niels; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Bladt, Jesper Stentoft

    2011-01-01

    conservation prioritization problem where climate change gradually changes the future habitat suitability of a site’ current species. This has implications for survival probability, as well as for species that potentially immigrate to the site. The problem is explored using a set of heuristics for both of two...... networks. Climate change induced shifts in the suitability of habitats for species may increase the value of such adaptive strategies, the benefit decreasing with increasing migration probabilities and species distribution dynamics.......Biodiversity conservation policies focus on securing the survival of species and habitats according to their current distribution. This basic premise may be inappropriate for halting biodiversity decline under the dynamic changes caused by climate change. This study explores a dynamic spatial...

  11. Climate Change, Fuels, and Wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-29

    Climate Change , Fuels, and Wildfire November 29, 2011 Partners in Environmental Technology Technical Symposium & Workshop SERDP|ESTCP Anthony...NOV 2011 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2011 to 00-00-2011 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Climate Change , Fuels, and Wildfire 5a. CONTRACT...drivers of fire activity in very diverse ecosystems in California and the Northern Rockies, and summarize how climate change may affect these. In order to

  12. Climatic change; Le Changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perthuis, Ch. de [Universite de Paris-Dauphine, 75 - Paris (France); Caisse des depots, Mission climat, 75 - Paris (France); Delbosc, A. [Caisse des depots, Mission climat, 75 - Paris (France)

    2009-07-01

    Received ideas about climatic change are a mixture of right and wrong information. The authors use these ideas as starting points to shade light on what we really know and what we believe to know. The book is divided in three main chapters: should we act in front of climatic change? How can we efficiently act? How can we equitably act? For each chapter a series of received ideas is analyzed in order to find those which can usefully contribute to mitigate the environmental, economical and social impacts of climatic change. (J.S.)

  13. Inhalation anaesthetics and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mads Peter Sulbæk; Sander, S P; Nielsen, O J

    2010-01-01

    Although the increasing abundance of CO(2) in our atmosphere is the main driver of the observed climate change, it is the cumulative effect of all forcing agents that dictate the direction and magnitude of the change, and many smaller contributors are also at play. Isoflurane, desflurane......, and sevoflurane are widely used inhalation anaesthetics. Emissions of these compounds contribute to radiative forcing of climate change. To quantitatively assess the impact of the anaesthetics on the forcing of climate, detailed information on their properties of heat (infrared, IR) absorption and atmospheric...

  14. Challenges of climate change. Which climate governance?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vieillefosse, A.; Cros, Ch.

    2007-01-01

    This report deals with the main challenges of climate change, and attempts to answer some questions: what is the temperature increase foreseen by scientific experts? Who will be affected by the consequences of climate change? Are there technologies to reduce emissions? If yes, why are they not diffused? Is it justified to ask developing countries to do something? Are concurrence distortions a real problem? Which are the main sectors where emissions are to be reduced? Are tools developed at the international level efficient? What is the present assessment for the clean development mechanism? What can be thought of technological partnerships developed with the United States? Then, the report comments the present status of international discussions, proposes a brief assessment of the Kyoto protocol ten years after its implementation, and proposes some improvement pathways

  15. The essential interactions between understanding climate variability and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    Global change is sometimes perceived as a field separate from other aspects of atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Despite the long history of communication between the scientific communities studying global change and those studying interannual variability and weather, increasing specialization and conflicting societal demands on the fields can put these interactions at risk. At the same time, current trajectories for greenhouse gas emissions imply substantial adaptation to climate change will be necessary. Instead of simply projecting effects to be avoided, the field is increasingly being asked to provide regional-level information for specific adaptation strategies—with associated requirements for increased precision on projections. For extreme events, challenges include validating models for rare events, especially for events that are unprecedented in the historical record. These factors will be illustrated with examples of information transfer to climate change from work on fundamental climate processes aimed originally at timescales from hours to interannual. Work to understand the effects that control probability distributions of moisture, temperature and precipitation in historical weather can yield new factors to examine for the changes in the extremes of these distributions under climate change. Surprisingly simple process models can give insights into the behavior of vastly more complex climate models. Observation systems and model ensembles aimed at weather and interannual variations prove valuable for global change and vice versa. Work on teleconnections in the climate system, such as the remote impacts of El Niño, is informing analysis of projected regional rainfall change over California. Young scientists need to prepare to work across the full spectrum of climate variability and change, and to communicate their findings, as they and our society head for future that is more interesting than optimal.

  16. Is the future blue-green? A review of the current model predictions of how climate change could affect pelagic freshwater cyanobacteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, J Alex

    2012-04-01

    There is increasing evidence that recent changes in climate have had an effect on lake phytoplankton communities and it has been suggested that it is likely that Cyanobacteria will increase in relative abundance under the predicted future climate. However, testing such a qualitative prediction is challenging and usually requires some form of numerical computer model. Therefore, the lake modelling literature was reviewed for studies that examined the impact of climate change upon Cyanobacteria. These studies, taken collectively, generally show an increase in relative Cyanobacteria abundance with increasing water temperature, decreased flushing rate and increased nutrient loads. Furthermore, they suggest that whilst the direct effects of climate change on the lakes can change the timing of bloom events and Cyanobacteria abundance, the amount of phytoplankton biomass produced over a year is not enhanced directly by these changes. Also, warmer waters in the spring increased nutrient consumption by the phytoplankton community which in some lakes caused nitrogen limitation later in the year to the advantage of some nitrogen-fixing Cyanobacteria. Finally, it is also possible that an increase in Cyanobacteria dominance of the phytoplankton biomass will lead to poorer energy flow to higher trophic levels due to their relatively poor edibility for zooplankton. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Arctic adaptation and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agnew, T.A.; Headley, A.

    1994-01-01

    The amplification of climatic warming in the Arctic and the sensitivity of physical, biological, and human systems to changes in climate make the Arctic particularly vulnerable to climate changes. Large areas of the Arctic permafrost and sea ice are expected to disappear under climate warming and these changes will have considerable impacts on the natural and built environment of the north. A review is presented of some recent studies on what these impacts could be for the permafrost and sea ice environment and to identify linkages with socioeconomic activities. Terrestrial adaptation to climate change will include increases in ground temperature; melting of permafrost with consequences such as frost heave, mudslides, and substantial settlement; rotting of peat contained in permafrost areas, with subsequent emission of CO 2 ; increased risk of forest fire; and flooding of low-lying areas. With regard to the manmade environment, structures that will be affected include buildings, pipelines, highways, airports, mines, and railways. In marine areas, climate change will increase the ice-free period for marine transport operations and thus provide some benefit to the offshore petroleum industry. This benefit will be offset by increased wave height and period, and increased coastal erosion. The offshore industry needs to be particularly concerned with these impacts since the expected design life of industry facilities (30-60 y) is of the same order as the time frame for possible climatic changes. 18 refs., 5 figs

  18. Climate change, wine, and conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah, Lee; Roehrdanz, Patrick R; Ikegami, Makihiko; Shepard, Anderson V; Shaw, M Rebecca; Tabor, Gary; Zhi, Lu; Marquet, Pablo A; Hijmans, Robert J

    2013-04-23

    Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects.

  19. Rethinking species’ ability to cope with rapid climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hof, Christian; Levinsky, Irina; Bastos Araujo, Miguel

    2011-01-01

    than contemporary ones, but relatively few continent-wide extinctions of species have been documented for these periods. This raises questions about the ability of extant species to adapt to ongoing climate change. We propose that the advances in geophysical research challenge current views about...... species' ability to cope with climate change, and that lessons must be learned for modelling future impacts of climate change on species.......Ongoing climate change is assumed to be exceptional because of its unprecedented velocity. However, new geophysical research suggests that dramatic climatic changes during the Late Pleistocene occurred extremely rapid, over just a few years. These abrupt climatic changes may have been even faster...

  20. Adapting Dutch agriculture to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stoorvogel, J.J.

    2009-01-01

    This review starts with a brief discussion on agricultural land use in the Netherlands, followed by an overview of the expected climatic changes in the Netherlands and the consequences of land use change on current agricultural practices. Subsequently, adaptation strategies as suggested in the

  1. Smallholder Agriculture and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cohn, Avery S.; Newton, Peter; Dias Bernardes Gil, Juliana; Kuhl, Laura; Samberg, Leah; Ricciardi, Vincent; Manly, Jessica R.; Northrop, Sarah

    2017-01-01

    Hundreds of millions of the world's poorest people directly depend on smallholder farming systems. These people now face a changing climate and associated societal responses. We use mapping and a literature review to juxtapose the climate fate of smallholder systems with that of other agricultural

  2. Climate Change and Conceptual Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, David J.

    2013-01-01

    Global Warming ("GW") is easily one of the most pressing concerns of our time, and its solution will come about only through a change in human behavior. Compared to the residents of most other nations worldwide, Americans report lower acceptance of the realities of GW. In order to address this concern in a free society, U.S. residents…

  3. Climate Change and Health

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    David Gikungu

    Adaptation contd. Key action areas in Kenya include: • Public health education and risk reduction. • Enhance systems for information gathering and dissemination. • Document, adopt and adapt relevant indigenous / traditional knowledge and endogenous technologies. • Stocking drugs for climate-sensitive diseases ahead.

  4. Coping with climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zheng, Yuan; Byg, Anja

    2014-01-01

    found across villages regarding the degree of perceived sensitivity and responses despite similar exposure to climate extremes. These differences are partly related to the nature of events and varied socio-economic characteristics of households, which influence their vulnerability and ability to cope...

  5. Deliberating Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agger, Annika; Jelsøe, Erling; Jæger, Birgit

    to include the voice of the citizens into complex scientific and technological issues. The purpose of WWV was to pass on the opinions of ordinary citizens to political decision-makers at The United Nations Climate Summit, COP15, in Copenhagen in December 2009. The authors made a study of the Danish WWV event...

  6. Estimating current and future streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites, central and eastern Montana, with application to evaluating effects of climate change on fish populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sando, Roy; Chase, Katherine J.

    2017-03-23

    A common statistical procedure for estimating streamflow statistics at ungaged locations is to develop a relational model between streamflow and drainage basin characteristics at gaged locations using least squares regression analysis; however, least squares regression methods are parametric and make constraining assumptions about the data distribution. The random forest regression method provides an alternative nonparametric method for estimating streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites and requires that the data meet fewer statistical conditions than least squares regression methods.Random forest regression analysis was used to develop predictive models for 89 streamflow characteristics using Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System simulated streamflow data and drainage basin characteristics at 179 sites in central and eastern Montana. The predictive models were developed from streamflow data simulated for current (baseline, water years 1982–99) conditions and three future periods (water years 2021–38, 2046–63, and 2071–88) under three different climate-change scenarios. These predictive models were then used to predict streamflow characteristics for baseline conditions and three future periods at 1,707 fish sampling sites in central and eastern Montana. The average root mean square error for all predictive models was about 50 percent. When streamflow predictions at 23 fish sampling sites were compared to nearby locations with simulated data, the mean relative percent difference was about 43 percent. When predictions were compared to streamflow data recorded at 21 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations outside of the calibration basins, the average mean absolute percent error was about 73 percent.

  7. Japan's Ambivalent Diplomacy on Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pajon, C.

    2010-01-01

    Japan often pictures itself as an environmental leader. While many examples of Japan's actions against climate change are in line with global climate change norms, others can be in opposition to them. This study, based on first hand interviews with Japanese policy makers and actors from the private and civil society sector, gives an informed perspective on the process through which Japan came to integrate and implement, at the domestic level, the international objective of climate change prevention, pointing out the discrepancies, tensions or synergies that emerged. As the current governance on climate change, and particularly after the Copenhagen conference, tends to reassert the importance of the national level against the global one, the Japanese case can serve as an example of tools and strategies that fully integrate the domestic level

  8. Review article of the current state of glaciers in the tropical Andes: a multi-century perspective on glacier evolution and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabatel, A.; Francou, B.; Soruco, A.; Gomez, J.; Cáceres, B.; Ceballos, J. L.; Basantes, R.; Vuille, M.; Sicart, J.-E.; Huggel, C.; Scheel, M.; Lejeune, Y.; Arnaud, Y.; Collet, M.; Condom, T.; Consoli, G.; Favier, V.; Jomelli, V.; Galarraga, R.; Ginot, P.; Maisincho, L.; Mendoza, J.; Ménégoz, M.; Ramirez, E.; Ribstein, P.; Suarez, W.; Villacis, M.; Wagnon, P.

    2012-07-01

    The aim of this paper is to provide the community with a comprehensive overview of the studies of glaciers in the tropical Andes conducted in recent decades leading to the current status of the glaciers in the context of climate change. In terms of changes in surface area and length, we show that the glacier retreat in the tropical Andes over the last three decades is unprecedented since the maximum extension of the LIA (mid 17th-early 18th century). In terms of changes in mass balance, although there have been some sporadic gains on several glaciers, we show that the trend has been quite negative over the past 50 yr, with a mean mass balance deficit for glaciers in the tropical Andes that is slightly more negative than the computed global average. A break point in the trend appeared in the late 1970s with mean annual mass balance per year decreasing from -0.2 m w.e. in the period 1964-1975 to -0.76 m w.e. in the period 1976-2010. In addition, even if glaciers are currently retreating everywhere in the tropical Andes, it should be noted that as a percentage, this is much more pronounced on small glaciers at low altitudes that do not have a permanent accumulation zone, and which could disappear in the coming years/decades. Monthly mass balance measurements performed in Bolivia, Ecuador and Colombia showed that variability of the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean is the main factor governing variability of the mass balance variability at the interannual to decadal time scale. Precipitation did not display a significant trend in the tropical Andes in the 20th century, and consequently cannot explain the glacier recession. On the other hand, temperature increased at a significant rate of 0.10 °C decade-1 in the last 70 yr. The higher frequency of El Niño events and changes in its spatial and temporal occurrence since the late 1970s together with a warming troposphere over the tropical Andes may thus explain much of the recent dramatic shrinkage of glaciers in

  9. Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; Monier, Erwan

    2017-08-01

    While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climate change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.

  10. Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; Monier, Erwan

    2017-08-01

    While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climate change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO 2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.

  11. Can Climate Change Negotiations Succeed?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Hovi

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available More than two decades of climate change negotiations have produced a series of global climate agreements, such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Copenhagen Accords, but have nevertheless made very limited progress in curbing global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper considers whether negotiations can succeed in reaching an agreement that effectively addresses the climate change problem. To be effective, a climate agreement must cause substantial emissions reductions either directly (in the agreement's own lifetime or indirectly (by paving the way for a future agreement that causes substantial emissions reductions directly. To reduce global emissions substantially, an agreement must satisfy three conditions. Firstly, participation must be both comprehensive and stable. Secondly, participating countries must accept deep commitments. Finally, the agreement must obtain high compliance rates. We argue that three types of enforcement will be crucial to fulfilling these three conditions: (1 incentives for countries to ratify with deep commitments, (2 incentives for countries that have ratified with deep commitments to abstain from withdrawal, and (3 incentives for countries having ratified with deep commitments to comply with them. Based on assessing the constraints that characterize the climate change negotiations, we contend that adopting such three-fold potent enforcement will likely be politically infeasible, not only within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, but also in the framework of a more gradual approach. Therefore, one should not expect climate change negotiations to succeed in producing an effective future agreement—either directly or indirectly.

  12. Climate change and plant disease management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coakley, S M; Scherm, H; Chakraborty, S

    1999-09-01

    ▪ Abstract  Research on impacts of climate change on plant diseases has been limited, with most work concentrating on the effects of a single atmospheric constituent or meteorological variable on the host, pathogen, or the interaction of the two under controlled conditions. Results indicate that climate change could alter stages and rates of development of the pathogen, modify host resistance, and result in changes in the physiology of host-pathogen interactions. The most likely consequences are shifts in the geographical distribution of host and pathogen and altered crop losses, caused in part by changes in the efficacy of control strategies. Recent developments in experimental and modeling techniques offer considerable promise for developing an improved capability for climate change impact assessment and mitigation. Compared with major technological, environmental, and socioeconomic changes affecting agricultural production during the next century, climate change may be less important; it will, however, add another layer of complexity and uncertainty onto a system that is already exceedingly difficult to manage on a sustainable basis. Intensified research on climate change-related issues could result in improved understanding and management of plant diseases in the face of current and future climate extremes.

  13. Health Effects of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... and elderly, those already stressed by disease or poverty, and those living in certain geographic locations such ... including the National Climate Assessment and the U.S. Global Change Research Program, and internationally through the United ...

  14. Cities lead on climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pancost, Richard D.

    2016-04-01

    The need to mitigate climate change opens up a key role for cities. Bristol's year as a Green Capital led to great strides forward, but it also revealed that a creative and determined partnership across cultural divides will be necessary.

  15. VTrans climate change action plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-06-01

    VTrans is working closely with other state agencies, including the Agency of Natural Resources (ANR) to review and implement the transportation-related recommendations from the 2007 Governors Commission on Climate Change (GCCC) final report. The r...

  16. Making Sense of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blichfeldt, Nikolaj Vendelbo

    The thesis is an ethnographic description of a climate change mitigation campaign among retirees in the urban residential community Dongping Lane in central Hangzhou, and an examination of local understandings of connections between everyday life in the community and global climate change......, as a point of departure for an examination of what happens when a requirement to save energy and resources, as a response to global climate change, encounters local ways of knowing the world. Developed through meetings, workshops, competitions and the promotion of exemplary individuals, the campaign...... is conceived as part of wider state-sponsored efforts to foster civilized behavior and a sense of belonging to the residential community among urban citizens in China. The campaigners connect unspectacular everyday consumer practices with climate change and citizenship by showing that among them, making...

  17. Climate Change Negotiations Unscrambling Acronyms

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    1992: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Rio. Common but differentiated responsibility (Annex I vs. non-Annex 1); Industrialized countries to bear full incremental costs of adjustment by developing countries ...

  18. Climate change and group dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postmes, Tom

    2015-01-01

    The characteristics and views of people sceptical about climate change have been analysed extensively. A study now confirms that sceptics in the US have some characteristics of a social movement, but shows that the same group dynamics propel believers

  19. Climate Change Science Program Collection

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Collection consists of publications and other resources produced between 2007 and 2009 by the CCSP with the intention of...

  20. The Costs of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jason

    2018-03-01

    This research paper talks about the economic costs of climate change, as well as the costs involved in responding to climate change with alternative fuels. This paper seeks to show that climate change, although seemingly costly in the short run, will both save future generations trillions of dollars and serve as a good economic opportunity. Scientists have long argued that the fate of humanity depends on a shift towards renewable energy. However, this paper will make clear that there is also an economic struggle. By embracing alternative fuels, we will not only lessen the danger and the frequency of these natural disasters but also strengthen the world’s financial state. Although a common argument against responding to climate change is that it is too expensive to make the switch, this research shows that in the future, it will save millions of lives and trillions of dollars. The only question left for policymakers is whether they will grasp this energy source shift.

  1. Solar Variability and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pap, J. M.

    2004-12-01

    One of the most exciting and important challenges in science today is to understand climate variability and to make reliable predictions. The Earth's climate is a complex system driven by external and internal forces. Climate can vary over a large range of time scales as a consequence of natural variability or anthropogenic influence, or both. Observations of steadily increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases --primarily man-made-- in the Earth's atmosphere have led to an expectation of global warming during the coming decades. However, the greenhouse effect competes with other climate forcing mechanisms, such as solar variability, cosmic ray flux changes, desertification, deforestation, and changes in natural and man-made atmospheric aerosols. Indeed, the climate is always changing, and has forever been so, including periods before the industrial era began. Since the dominant driving force of the climate system is the Sun, the accurate knowledge of the solar radiation received by Earth at various wavelengths and from energetic particles with varying intensities, as well as a better knowledge of the solar-terrestrial interactions and their temporal and spatial variability are crucial to quantify the solar influence on climate and to distinguish between natural and anthropogenic influences. In this paper we give an overview on the recent results of solar irradiance measurements over the last three decades and the possible effects of solar variability on climate.

  2. Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, G.; Shah, M.; Van Velthuizen, H.

    2002-08-01

    After the introduction Chapter 2 presents details of the ecological-economic analysis based on the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zones (AEZ) approach for evaluation of biophysical limitations and agricultural production potentials, and IIASA's Basic Linked System (BLS) for analyzing the world's food economy and trade system. The BLS is a global general equilibrium model system for analyzing agricultural policies and food system prospects in an international setting. BLS views national agricultural systems as embedded in national economies, which interact with each other through trade at the international level. The combination of AEZ and BLS provides an integrated ecological-economic framework for the assessment of the impact of climate change. We consider climate scenarios based on experiments with four General Circulation Models (GCM), and we assess the four basic socioeconomic development pathways and emission scenarios as formulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Third Assessment Report. Chapter 3 presents the main AEZ results of the impact of climate change on agriculture. Results comprise environmental constraints to crop agriculture; climate variability and the variability of rain-fed cereal production; changes in potential agricultural land; changes in crop-production patterns; and the impact of climate change on cereal-production potential. Chapter 4 discusses the AEZ-BLS integrated ecological-economic analysis of climate change on the world food system. This includes quantification of scale and location of hunger, international agricultural trade, prices, production, land use, etc. It assesses trends in food production, trade, and consumption, and the impact on poverty and hunger of alternative development pathways and varying levels of climate change. Chapter 5 presents the main conclusions and policy implications of this study

  3. ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE

    OpenAIRE

    Abida Shamim Qureshi

    2017-01-01

    The whole world is on the terrifying cross-roads of global environmental threat. Last several years, particularly the last two years dominated the headlines about the serious threat climate change posed to the world. The more frequent severe weather conditions which result from climate change or global warming in the form of storms, tornadoes, tsunamis, floods, droughts, rising sea level and such other catastrophes have raised the economic cost of the natural disasters. The result, it appears...

  4. Climate Change and Future World

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    2013. 4 Centro Studi di Politica Internazionale, Cambiamenti Climatici e Governance della Sicurezza: la Rilevanza Politica della Nuova Agenda...Internazionale, (Osservatorio di Politica Internazionale, n. 16 – maggio 2010), 1. (Center for the Studies of International Politics, Climate Change and...CMMDiscussionPaper1ClimateChangeAdaptationa ndConflict.pdf), accessed 3/06/2013. 38 Ibid. 39 Ibid, 10. 40 Centro Studi di Politica Internazionale, Cambiamenti Climatici e

  5. Social protection and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnson, Craig; Bansha Dulal, Hari; Prowse, Martin Philip

    2013-01-01

    This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject.......This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject....

  6. Climate Change in Myanmar: Impacts and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    effects of sea level rise on Myanmar. 76 IPCC , Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis... effects of a changing climate . To assess the relationship between Myanmar and climate change , this thesis analyzes projected impacts on the nation...UN, and therefore is highly vulnerable to the negative effects of a changing climate . To assess the relationship between Myanmar and climate

  7. Climate change and nuclear power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schneider, M

    2000-04-01

    The nuclear industry has increased its efforts to have nuclear power plants integrated into the post- Kyoto negotiating process of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) states: ''For many reasons, current and future nuclear energy projects are a superior method of generating emission credits that must be considered as the US expands the use of market- based mechanisms designed around emission credit creation and trading to achieve environmental goals ''. The NEI considers that nuclear energy should be allowed to enter all stages of the Kyoto ''flexibility Mechanisms'': emissions trading, joint implementation and the Clean Development Mechanism. The industry sees the operation of nuclear reactors as emission ''avoidance actions'' and believes that increasing the generation of nuclear power above the 1990 baseline year either through extension and renewal of operating licenses or new nuclear plant should be accepted under the flexibility mechanisms in the same way as wind, solar and hydro power. For the time being, there is no clear definition of the framework conditions for operating the flexibility mechanisms. However, eligible mechanisms must contribute to the ultimate objective of the Climate Convention of preventing ''dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system''. The information presented in the following sections of this report underlines that nuclear power is not a sustainable source of energy, for many reasons. In conclusion, an efficient greenhouse gas abatement strategy will be based on energy efficiency and not on the use of nuclear power. (author)

  8. The 7 Aarhus Statements on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margrethe Basse, Ellen; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Besenbacher, Flemming; Læssøe, Jeppe; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Lange, Lene

    2009-03-01

    More than 1000 prominent representatives from science, industry, politics and NGOs were gathered in Aarhus on 5-7 March 2009 for the international climate conference 'Beyond Kyoto: Addressing the Challenges of Climate Change'. Thematically, Beyond Kyoto was divided into seven areas of particular interest for understanding the effects of the projected future climate change and how the foreseen negative impacts can be counteracted by mitigation and adaptation measures. The themes were: Climate policy: the role of law and economics; Biodiversity and ecosystems; Agriculture and climate change; Nanotechnology solutions for a sustainable future; Citizens and society, and The Arctic. The main responsible scientists for the seven conference themes and representatives from the think-tank CONCITO delivered 'The 7 Aarhus Statements on Climate Change' as part of the closing session of the conference. The statements were also communicated to the Danish Government as well as to the press. This article is the product of the collective subsequent work of the seven theme responsibles and is a presentation of each theme statement in detail, emphasizing the current state of knowledge and how it may be used to minimize the expected negative impacts of future climate change.

  9. Europeans' attitudes towards climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-07-01

    This report presents the results of a survey on Europeans' attitudes towards climate change which was carried out in January and February 2009. The survey focuses on: Citizens' perceptions of climate change in relation to other world problems; Citizens' perceptions of the seriousness of climate change; The extent to which citizens feel informed about climate change - its causes, consequences and ways of fighting it; Citizens' attitudes towards alternative fuels and CO2 emissions; Whether citizens feel that climate change is stoppable or has been exaggerated, and what impact it has on the European economy; Whether citizens have taken personal action to fight climate change. This Eurobarometer survey was carried out by TNS Opinion and Social network between 16 January and 22 February 2009. The interviews were conducted among 26,718 citizens in the 27 Member States of the European Union, the three candidate countries for accession to the European Union (Croatia, Turkey and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia) and in the Turkish Cypriot Community.

  10. Climate change over Leh (Ladakh), India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chevuturi, A.; Dimri, A. P.; Thayyen, R. J.

    2018-01-01

    Mountains over the world are considered as the indicators of climate change. The Himalayas are comprised of five ranges, viz., Pir Panjal, Great Himalayas, Zanskar, Ladhak, and Karakorum. The Ladakh region lies in the northernmost state of India, Jammu and Kashmir, in the Ladhak range. It has a unique cold-arid climate and lies immediately south of the Karakorum range. With scarce water resources, such regions show high sensitivity and vulnerability to the change in climate and need urgent attention. The objective of this study is to understand the climate of the Ladakh region and to characterize its changing climate. Using different temperature and precipitation datasets over Leh and surrounding regions, we statistically analyze the current trends of climatic patterns over the region. The study shows that the climate over Leh shows a warming trend with reduced precipitation in the current decade. The reduced average seasonal precipitation might also be associated with some indications of reducing number of days with higher precipitation amounts over the region.

  11. CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    users

    change and the extent to which policies to prevent, mitigate, or adapt to environmental change may affect agriculture and hunger. ... possible changes in the earth's climate to enhance environmental sustainability of agricultural products in our society. ... food aid, but an increase in vulnerability to problems stemming from ...

  12. Climate change and sustainability in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfsen, Knut H.

    2001-01-01

    This paper discusses the climate history of the Earth, exploring some of the driving forces of climate change along the way. It points out that it may not be the gradual increase in global mean temperature that we have to fear the most. Rather the variability of the climate may pose an even greater threat to us. The paper outlines some possible future scenarios of climate change based on what we now think we know about the causes of climate change and possible future development in emissions of greenhouse gases. It then goes on to describe the current climate negotiations and possible political solutions in the near term, before concluding with a description of the more long-term fundamental challenges we face. The aim of the discussion is to provide a deeper understanding of the climate problem we are facing, as well as the challenges that lie ahead of us, individually as well as a region, in securing the climate aspect of a sustainable development for Europe and the world. The paper is based on a presentation given at the conference Rio + 10 in Dublin in September 2001, made possible by a kind contribution from the European Environment Agency. (author)

  13. Climate change and sustainability in Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.

    2001-07-01

    This paper discusses the climate history of the Earth, exploring some of the driving forces of climate change along the way. It points out that it may not be the gradual increase in global mean temperature that we have to fear the most. Rather the variability of the climate may pose an even greater threat to us. The paper outlines some possible future scenarios of climate change based on what we now think we know about the causes of climate change and possible future development in emissions of greenhouse gases. It then goes on to describe the current climate negotiations and possible political solutions in the near term, before concluding with a description of the more long-term fundamental challenges we face. The aim of the discussion is to provide a deeper understanding of the climate problem we are facing, as well as the challenges that lie ahead of us, individually as well as a region, in securing the climate aspect of a sustainable development for Europe and the world. The paper is based on a presentation given at the conference Rio + 10 in Dublin in September 2001, made possible by a kind contribution from the European Environment Agency. (author)

  14. Tropical Rainforest responses to climatic changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, M.B. [Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL (United States). Dept. of Biological Sciences; Flenley, J.R. [Massey Univ. (New Zealand). School of People, Environment and Planning

    2007-07-01

    The goal of this book is to provide a current overview of the impacts of climate change on tropical forests, to investigate past, present, and future climatic influences on the ecosystems with the highest biodiversity on the planet. ''Tropical Rainforest Responses to Climatic Change'' will be the first book to examine how tropical rain forest ecology is altered by climate change, rather than simply seeing how plant communities were altered. Shifting the emphasis onto ecological processes e.g. how diversity is structured by climate and the subsequent impact on tropical forest ecology, provides the reader with a more comprehensive coverage. A major theme of this book that emerges progressively is the interaction between humans, climate and forest ecology. While numerous books have appeared dealing with forest fragmentation and conservation, none have explicitly explored the long term occupation of tropical systems, the influence of fire and the future climatic effects of deforestation, coupled with anthropogenic emissions. Incorporating modelling of past and future systems paves the way for a discussion of conservation from a climatic perspective, rather than the usual plea to stop logging. (orig.)

  15. Climate change adaptation : planning for BC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harford, D.; Vanderwill, C.; Church, A.

    2008-11-01

    This paper explored climate change challenges facing British Columbia in the context of 9 topical issues, notably biodiversity, extreme events, energy, water supply, crop adaptation, health risks, sea level rise, population dynamics and new technologies. Each issue was summarized in terms of threats, current responses in British Columbia and precedents being set in Canada. The key principles of adaptation to climate change were also reviewed. In addition, the paper explored ways to adopt smart adaptation strategies-policy responses to climate change that cut across all major government functions, such as infrastructure, energy, water, economic development, resource management and agriculture. The paper emphasized that strategies that respond to the climate challenge should acknowledge the links between adaptation and mitigation, or emissions reduction. Both concepts need major investment in research, education and infrastructure to support comprehensive, effective responses. refs., tabs., figs

  16. CLIMATE CHANGES: CAUSES AND IMPACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Slave

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Present brings several environmental problems for people. Many of these are closely related, but by far the most important problem is the climate change. In the course of Earth evolution, climate has changed many times, sometimes dramatically. Warmer eras always replaced and were in turn replaced by glacial ones. However, the climate of the past almost ten thousand years has been very stable. During this period human civilization has also developed. In the past nearly 100 years - since the beginning of industrialization - the global average temperature has increased by approx. 0.6 ° C (after IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, faster than at any time in the last 1000 years.

  17. Climate change studies in Estonia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kallaste, Tiit; Kuldna, Piret

    1998-01-01

    The present collection of papers was compiled on the basis of research papers written by Estonian scientists during the United Nations Environment Programme and Global Environment Facility initiated climate change programme Country Case Study on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations Assessments. The Estonian country case study was finally approved by UNEP/GEF in February 1996, practical work started in September. The priorities for Estonia in the study of global climate change impacts and adaptation have been in the following areas of interest: agriculture, water resources, forestry, the Baltic Sea and Estonian coast, also historical climate and socioeconomic background together with the biggest producer of greenhouse gases, the energy sector. Those areas have been studied more carefully during the one and half year period of the project

  18. Climate change and preventive medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faergeman, Ole

    2007-12-01

    Thermal stress, food poisoning, infectious diseases, malnutrition, psychiatric illness as well as injury and death from floods, storms and fire are all likely to become more common as the earth warms and the climate becomes more variable. In contrast, obesity, type II diabetes and coronary artery disease do not result from climate change, but they do share causes with climate change. Burning fossil fuels, for example, is the major source of greenhouse gases, but it also makes pervasive physical inactivity possible. Similarly, modern agriculture's enormous production of livestock contributes substantially to greenhouse gas emissions, and it is the source of many of our most energy-rich foods. Physicians and societies of medical professionals have a particular responsibility, therefore, to contribute to the public discourse about climate change and what to do about it.

  19. Acting efficiently on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appert, Olivier; Moncomble, Jean-Eudes

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is a major issue. A survey of the utility companies that account for 80% of the world's electric power was released during the 20. climate conference in Lima as part of the World Energy Council' Global Electricity Initiative. It has concluded that all these utilities see climate change as being real and declare that policies for adapting to it are as important as policies for limiting it. Nonetheless, 97% of these utilities think that consumers will refuse to pay more for decarbonized electricity. This is the core problem in the fight against climate change: all agree that the issue is urgent, some agree about what should be done, but none wants to pay

  20. Projection of future climate changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, Olivier; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Vial, Jessica; Brun, Eric; Cattiaux, Julien; Chauvin, Fabrice; Salas y Melia, David; Voldoire, Aurore; Bopp, Laurent; Braconnot, Pascale; Ciais, Philippe; Yiou, Pascal; Guilyardi, Eric; Mignot, Juliette; Guivarch, Celine

    2015-01-01

    Climate models provide the opportunity to anticipate how the climate system may change due to anthropogenic activities during the 21. century. Studies are based on numerical simulations that explore the evolution of the mean climate and its variability according to different socio-economic scenarios. We present a selection of results from phase 5 of the Climate model intercomparison project (CMIP5) with an illustrative focus on the two French models that participated to this exercise. We describe the effects of human perturbations upon surface temperature, precipitation, the cryo-sphere, but also extreme weather events and the carbon cycle. Results show a number of robust features, on the amplitude and geographical patterns of the expected changes and on the processes at play in these changes. They also show the limitations of such a prospective exercise and persistent uncertainties on some key aspects. (authors)

  1. Air Quality and Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colette, A.; Rouil, L.; Bessagnet, B.; Schucht, S.; Szopa, S.; Vautard, R.; Menut, L.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change and air quality are closely related: through the policy measures implemented to mitigate these major environmental threats but also through the geophysical processes that drive them. We designed, developed and implemented a comprehensive regional air quality and climate modeling System to investigate future air quality in Europe taking into account the combined pressure of future climate change and long range transport. Using the prospective scenarios of the last generation of pathways for both climate change (emissions of well mixed greenhouse gases) and air pollutants, we can provide a quantitative view into the possible future air quality in Europe. We find that ozone pollution will decrease substantially under the most stringent scenario but the efforts of the air quality legislation will be adversely compensated by the penalty of global warming and long range transport for the business as usual scenario. For particulate matter, the projected reduction of emissions efficiently reduces exposure levels. (authors)

  2. Climate Change and Nuclear Power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jurkovic, I.-A.; Feretic, D.; Debrecin, N.

    2000-01-01

    The 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is one of a series of recent agreements through which countries around the world are banding together to meet the challenge of altering the global climate. In 1997, in respond to the growing public pressure and questions on climate change governments adopted the Kyoto Protocol. The 5th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP5 UNFCCC) was a rather technical and complex conference which focused in particular on the development of a detailed framework for the application of ''flexible mechanisms'' as laid down in the Kyoto Protocol. Young Generation Network as a part of the International Nuclear Forum at COP5 took part in the debate saying that nuclear is the part of the solution. (author)

  3. Climatic change: Italian situation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nanni, T.; Prodi, F.

    2008-01-01

    Climate patterns in italy over the last two centuries are reconstructed using a new database of pluviometric and thermometric secular data series performed by the historic climatology group of the ISAC institute of CNR. The series were thoroughly quality checked and homogenized. The analysis shows that in Italy, over the last 200 years, air temperature has increased by about 1 0 C a century. At the same time a decrease in precipitation can be observed, albeit by a little amount and often not significant from a statistical point of view [it

  4. What Is Climate Change? (Environmental Health Student Portal)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Lead Arsenic Volatile Organic Compounds Plastics Pesticides Climate Change Climate Change Home What is Climate Change Greenhouse Gases ... Lead Arsenic Volatile Organic Compounds Plastics Pesticides Climate Change Climate Change Home What is Climate Change Greenhouse Gases ...

  5. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmgren, K.; Karlen, W. [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography

    1998-12-01

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  6. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmgren, K.; Karlen, W.

    1998-12-01

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  7. Biodiversity redistribution under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pecl, Gretta T.; Bastos, Miguel; Bell, Johann D.

    2017-01-01

    Distributions of Earth’s species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by humanmediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence...... that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered...... by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals....

  8. Sigtuna Think Piece 2 Climate Capabilities and Climate Change ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Furthermore, it suggests that climate change education research may include descriptive and comparative, normative, critical and meta forms of research to investigate the various meanings of climate change wellbeing in spaces of capabilities. Furthermore, climate change education research may contribute to climate ...

  9. Climate Change 2014: Technical Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Chrisopher B.; Barros, Vicente; Mach, Katherine; Mastrandrea, Michael; van Aalst, Maarten; Adger, Niel; Arent, Douglas J; Barnett, Jonathan; Betts, Richard; Bilir, Eren; Birkmann, Joern; Carmin, Joann; Chadee, Dave; Challinor, Andrew; Chaterjee, Monalisa; Cramer, Wolfgang; Davidson, Debra; Estrada, Yuka; Gatusso, Jean-Pierre; Hijioka, Yasuakai; Yohe, Gary; Hiza, Margaret; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Huang, He-Qing; Insarov, Gregory; Jones, Roger; Kovats, Sari; Lankao, Patricia Romero; Larsen, Joan Nymand; Losada, Iñigo; Marengo, José; McLean, Roger; Mearns, Linda; Mechler, Reinhard; Morton, John; Niang, Isabelle; Oki, Taikan; Olwoch, Jane Mukarugwiza; Opondo, Maggie; Poloczanska, Elvira; Pörtner, Hans -O.; Reisinger, Andy; Revi, Aromar; Schmidt, Daniela; Shaw, Rebecca; Solecki, William; Stone, Dáithí; Stone, John; Strzepek, Ken; Suarez, Avelino G.; Tschakert, Petra; Valentini, Riccardo; Vicuna, Sebastian; Villamizar, Alicia; Vincent, Katharine; Warren, Rachel; White, Leslie; Wilbanks, Thomas; Wong, Poh Poh

    2014-01-01

    Human interference with the climate system is occurring (WGI AR5 SPM Section D.3; WGI AR5 Sections 2.2, 6.3, 10.3 to 10.6, 10.9). Climate change poses risks for human and natural systems. The assessment of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (WGII AR5) evaluates how patterns of risks and potential benefits are shifting due to climate change. It considers how impacts and risks related to climate change can be reduced and managed through adaptation and mitigation. The report assesses needs, options, opportunities, constraints, resilience, limits, and other aspects associated with adaptation. It recognizes that risks of climate change will vary across regions and populations, through space and time, dependent on myriad factors including the extent of adaptation and mitigation. For the past 2 decades, IPCC’s Working Group II has developed assessments of climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. The WGII AR5 builds from the WGII contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (WGII AR4), published in 2007, and the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX), published in 2012. It follows the Working Group I contribution to the AR5. The WGII AR5 is presented in two parts (Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects, and Part B: Regional Aspects), reflecting the expanded literature basis and multidisciplinary approach, increased focus on societal impacts and responses, and continued regionally comprehensive coverage. [1.1 to 1.3] The number of scientific publications available for assessing climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability more than doubled between 2005 and 2010, with especially rapid increases in publications related to adaptation, allowing for a more robust assessment that supports policymaking (high confidence). The diversity of the topics and regions covered has similarly expanded, as has

  10. Current Assessment and Future Outlook for Water Resources Considering Climate Change and a Population Burst: A Case Study of Ciliwung River, Jakarta City, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pankaj Kumar

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Modeling insecurity under future climate change and socio-economic development is indispensable for adaptive planning and sustainable management of water resources. This case study strives to assess the water quality and quantity status for both the present and the near future in the Ciliwung River basin inside the Jakarta Province under different scenarios using population growth with planned additional wastewater management infrastructure by 2030 as mentioned in the local master plan, and comparing the above conditions with the addition of the effects of climate change. Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD, chemical oxygen demand (COD and nitrate (NO3, the three important indicators of aquatic ecosystem health, were simulated to assess river pollution. Simulation results suggest that water quality in year 2030 will further deteriorate compared to the base year 2000 due to population growth and climate change, even considering the planned wastewater management infrastructure. The magnitude of impact from population growth is far greater than that from climate change. Simulated values of NO3, BOD and COD ranged from 6.07 to 13.34 mg/L, 7.65 to 11.41 mg/L, and 20.16 to 51.01 mg/L, respectively. Almost all of the water quality parameters exceeded the safe limit suitable for a healthy aquatic system, especially for the year 2030. The situation of water quality is worse for the downstream sampling location because of the cumulative effect of transport of untreated pollutants coming from upstream, as well as local dumping. This result will be useful for local policy makers and stakeholders involved in the water sector to formulate strategic and adaptive policies and plan for the future. One of the potential policy interventions is to implement a national integrated sewerage and septage management program on a priority basis, considering various factors like population density and growth, and global changes for both short- and long-term measures.

  11. Permafrost Meta-Omics and Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mackelprang, Rachel; Saleska, Scott R.; Jacobsen, Carsten Suhr

    2016-01-01

    from thawing permafrost regions. Analysis of nucleic acids and proteins taken directly from permafrost-associated soils has provided new insights into microbial communities and their functions in Arctic environments that are increasingly impacted by climate change. In this article we review current...... carbon produce carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, contributing substantially to climate change. Next-generation sequencing and other -omics technologies offer opportunities to discover the mechanisms by which microbial communities regulate the loss of carbon and the emission of greenhouse gases...... information from various molecular -omics studies on permafrost microbial ecology and explore the relevance of these insights to our current understanding of the dynamics of permafrost loss due to climate change....

  12. Permafrost Meta-Omics and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackelprang, Rachel; Saleska, Scott R.; Jacobsen, Carsten Suhr; Jansson, Janet K.; Taş, Neslihan

    2016-06-01

    Permanently frozen soil, or permafrost, covers a large portion of the Earth's terrestrial surface and represents a unique environment for cold-adapted microorganisms. As permafrost thaws, previously protected organic matter becomes available for microbial degradation. Microbes that decompose soil carbon produce carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, contributing substantially to climate change. Next-generation sequencing and other -omics technologies offer opportunities to discover the mechanisms by which microbial communities regulate the loss of carbon and the emission of greenhouse gases from thawing permafrost regions. Analysis of nucleic acids and proteins taken directly from permafrost-associated soils has provided new insights into microbial communities and their functions in Arctic environments that are increasingly impacted by climate change. In this article we review current information from various molecular -omics studies on permafrost microbial ecology and explore the relevance of these insights to our current understanding of the dynamics of permafrost loss due to climate change.

  13. Testing coastal DRR in current and climate change scenarios - Artificial winter dune system in a highly touristic beach in the Northern Adriatic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duo, Enrico; Armaroli, Clara

    2017-04-01

    Artificial dunes are common features built along the coast of the Emilia-Romagna region (Italy) that act as temporary protections during the stormy season in order to prevent damages and inundation to the structures located on the backshore. The RER coast is in fact characterised by low sandy beaches that are exploited for tourism and where beach huts are permanently present on the rear part of the beach. While scientists and regional managers already provided proofs of the capacity of the artificial dunes to lower the hazard component, any study has never investigated their direct impacts in the current (CS) and climate change scenarios (CCS). The RISC-KIT project (www.risckit.eu) provided a methodology for testing DRRs at local level integrating hydro-morphological numerical modelling with a Bayesian Network to assess the consequences of extreme events for different scenarios. The approach was applied at the beach of Lido degli Estensi and Spina (Comacchio, Italy) in the Emilia-Romagna coast. It is a highly touristic area with concessions directly facing the sea, providing sun-and-beach tourism services during summer time, and private residences, commercial activities and hotels at the seafront. The flooding and erosion hazards were analyzed, along with their impacts. A 2DH XBeach model was built and forced with a large number of triangular storms, representative of many different representative combinations of waves' and total water level's ranges observed at regional level. Flooding and erosion results were input into a Bayesian Network which included, as feeding variables categories, deep water boundary conditions (including the CCS trigger), receptors (type and location of assets at the coast), hazard intensity affecting the receptors, impacts and DRR. Therefore, it was possible to integrate a flood damage curve and an erosion potential damage function for the analyzed receptors (beach concessions and residential/commercial buildings), in order to calculate

  14. Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro; Díaz-Sierra, Rubén; Martín-Aranda, Rosa M.; Santos, Maria J.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship between climate change adaptation and environmental impact assessment, and the degree to which environmental impacts are included in climate change adaptation theory and practice. Our literature review showed that technical, social and economic perspectives on climate change adaptation receive much more attention than the environmental perspective. The scarce interest on the environmental impacts of adaptation may be attributed to (1) an excessive sectoral approach, with dominance of non-environmental perspectives, (2) greater interest in mitigation and direct climate change impacts rather than in adaptation impacts, (3) a tendency to consider adaptation as inherently good, and (4) subjective/preconceived notions on which measures are good or bad, without a comprehensive assessment. Environmental Assessment (EA) has a long established history as an effective tool to include environment into decision-making, although it does not yet guarantee a proper assessment of adaptation, because it is still possible to postpone or even circumvent the processes of assessing the impacts of climate adaptation. Our results suggest that there is a need to address adaptation proactively by including it in EA, to update current policy frameworks, and to demand robust and reliable evaluation of alternatives. Only through the full EA of adaptation measures can we improve our understanding of the primary and secondary impacts of adaptation to global environmental change. - Highlights: • Climate change adaptation may have undesirable environmental impacts. • The impacts of adaptation are yet poorly analysed in the literature. • There is an excessive sectoral approach to adaptation, mainly

  15. Climate change and agriculture in Denmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olesen, J.E.

    2001-01-01

    This chapter reviews the current knowledge on effects of climate change on agriculture in Denmark, and the contribution of agriculture to greenhouse gas emissions in Denmark. The chapter also considers the possibilities of Danish agriculture to adapt to changing climate and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The relations to other aspects of global change are discussed, including liberalisation of world markets and changes in land use. Scenarios of climate change for Denmark suggest increases in annual mean temperature of 1 to 4 deg. C by the end of the 21st century depending on socioeconomic development. Winter rainfall may increase up to 20%. This implies a wide range of possible consequences. Agricultural productivity may be expected to increase under increasing temperature and increasing CO 2 concentration. Highter temperatures will increase the risk of pests and deseases. Warming in association with increased winter rainfall will also increase the risk of nitrate leaching. Climate change may thus be expected to reinforce the current trends in Danish agriculture of declining cattle population and increasing pig and cereal production. Apart from an anticipated continued decline in total agricultural area, land use will probably not be greatly affected. The current environmental regulation in Denmark aims at reducing pesticide use and nitrogen losses from agriculture. Some of the regulations are very detailed and directly regulate farming practices in a manner that may not provide the most cost-effective mechanism under a changed climate. Some of these existing rigid frameworks for environmental regulation should thus be substituted by more flexible goal-oriented environmental protection strategies, in order to ensure sustainability of farming under global climate change. (LN)

  16. Climate Change Impacts at Department of Defense

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kotamarthi, Rao [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wang, Jiali [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Zoebel, Zach [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States); Wuebbles, Don [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States); Hayhoe, Katharine [Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX (United States); Stein, Michael [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States); Changnon, David [Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL (United States)

    2017-06-16

    This project is aimed at providing the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) with a comprehensive analysis of the uncertainty associated with generating climate projections at the regional scale that can be used by stakeholders and decision makers to quantify and plan for the impacts of future climate change at specific locations. The merits and limitations of commonly used downscaling models, ranging from simple to complex, are compared, and their appropriateness for application at installation scales is evaluated. Downscaled climate projections are generated at selected DoD installations using dynamic and statistical methods with an emphasis on generating probability distributions of climate variables and their associated uncertainties. The sites selection and selection of variables and parameters for downscaling was based on a comprehensive understanding of the current and projected roles that weather and climate play in operating, maintaining, and planning DoD facilities and installations.

  17. Climate change and food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, P J; Ingram, J S I; Brklacich, M

    2005-11-29

    Dynamic interactions between and within the biogeophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food, resulting in food systems that underpin food security. Food systems encompass food availability (production, distribution and exchange), food access (affordability, allocation and preference) and food utilization (nutritional and societal values and safety), so that food security is, therefore, diminished when food systems are stressed. Such stresses may be induced by a range of factors in addition to climate change and/or other agents of environmental change (e.g. conflict, HIV/AIDS) and may be particularly severe when these factors act in combination. Urbanization and globalization are causing rapid changes to food systems. Climate change may affect food systems in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production (e.g. changes in rainfall leading to drought or flooding, or warmer or cooler temperatures leading to changes in the length of growing season), to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. The relative importance of climate change for food security differs between regions. For example, in southern Africa, climate is among the most frequently cited drivers of food insecurity because it acts both as an underlying, ongoing issue and as a short-lived shock. The low ability to cope with shocks and to mitigate long-term stresses means that coping strategies that might be available in other regions are unavailable or inappropriate. In other regions, though, such as parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India, other drivers, such as labour issues and the availability and quality of ground water for irrigation, rank higher than the direct effects of climate change as factors influencing food security. Because of the multiple socio-economic and bio-physical factors affecting food systems and hence food security, the capacity to adapt food systems to reduce their

  18. Simulating Climate Change in Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, P.; Lynch, P.

    2012-04-01

    At the Meteorology & Climate Centre at University College Dublin, we are using the CLM-Community's COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model (RCM) and the WRF RCM (developed at NCAR) to simulate the climate of Ireland at high spatial resolution. To address the issue of model uncertainty, a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach is used. The ensemble method uses different RCMs, driven by several Global Climate Models (GCMs), to simulate climate change. Through the MME approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections is quantified, enabling us to estimate the probability density function of predicted changes, and providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. The RCMs were validated by performing a 20-year simulation of the Irish climate (1981-2000), driven by ECMWF ERA-40 global re-analysis data, and comparing the output to observations. Results confirm that the output of the RCMs exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in the historical data record. Projections for the future Irish climate were generated by downscaling the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5 GCM, the UK Met Office HadGEM2-ES GCM and the CGCM3.1 GCM from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling. Simulations were run for a reference period 1961-2000 and future period 2021-2060. The future climate was simulated using the A1B, A2, B1, RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Results for the downscaled simulations show a substantial overall increase in precipitation and wind speed for the future winter months and a decrease during the summer months. The predicted annual change in temperature is approximately 1.1°C over Ireland. To date, all RCM projections are in general agreement, thus increasing our confidence in the robustness of the results.

  19. Indigenous health and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, James D

    2012-07-01

    Indigenous populations have been identified as vulnerable to climate change. This framing, however, is detached from the diverse geographies of how people experience, understand, and respond to climate-related health outcomes, and overlooks nonclimatic determinants. I reviewed research on indigenous health and climate change to capture place-based dimensions of vulnerability and broader determining factors. Studies focused primarily on Australia and the Arctic, and indicated significant adaptive capacity, with active responses to climate-related health risks. However, nonclimatic stresses including poverty, land dispossession, globalization, and associated sociocultural transitions challenge this adaptability. Addressing geographic gaps in existing studies alongside greater focus on indigenous conceptualizations on and approaches to health, examination of global-local interactions shaping local vulnerability, enhanced surveillance, and an evaluation of policy support opportunities are key foci for future research.

  20. Climate change impacts and adaptations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn

    2015-01-01

    , the inseparability of the development and climate agendas, and the rate of assimilation of climate and development information in key institutions. They are drawn from the Development Under Climate Change (DUCC) project carried out by UNU-WIDER of which the countries of the Greater Zambeze Valley formed a part......In this article, we assert that developing countries are much better prepared to undertake negotiations at the Conference of the Parties in Paris (CoP21) as compared to CoP15 in Copenhagen. An important element of this is the accumulation of knowledge with respect to the implications of climate...... change and the ongoing internalization thereof by key institutions in developing countries. The articles in this special issue set forth a set of technical contributions to this improved understanding. We also summarize five major lessons related to uncertainty, extreme events, timing of impacts...

  1. Climate change and fuel poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Simon Dresner; Paul Ekins

    2005-01-01

    The research examined the possible effects of rapid climate change on fuel poverty (needing to spend more than 10% of income to maintain a satisfactory level of warmth and other energy services in the home). One particular concern was the prospect that there might be a shutting off of the Gulf Stream, which warms Britain and the rest of north-western Europe. Computer simulations of the climate indicate that shutting down the Gulf Stream would cool England by about 3°C. Climate is not the only...

  2. Technology Transfers for Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    May Elsayyad; Florian Morath

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers investments in cost-reducing technology in the context of contributions to climate protection. Contributions to mitigating climate change are analyzed in a two-period model where later contributions can be based on better information, but delaying the contribution to the public good is costly because of irreversible damages. We show that, when all countries have access to the new technology, countries have an incentive to invest in technology because this can lead to an e...

  3. Climate change adaptation in Ethiopia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weldegebriel, Zerihun Berhane; Prowse, Martin

    Ethiopia is vulnerable to climate change due to its limited development and dependence on agriculture. Social protection schemes like the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) can play a positive role in promoting livelihoods and enhancing households’ risk management. This article examines......, they suggest the PSNP may not be helping smallholders diversify income sources in a positive manner for climate adaptation. The article concludes by arguing for further investigation of the PSNP’s influence on smallholders’ adaptation strategies....

  4. Climate change: Wilderness's greatest challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nathan L. Stephenson; Connie Millar

    2014-01-01

    Anthropogenic climatic change can no longer be considered an abstract possibility. It is here, its effects are already evident, and changes are expected to accelerate in coming decades, profoundly altering wilderness ecosystems. At the most fundamental level, wilderness stewards will increasingly be confronted with a trade-off between untrammeled wilderness character...

  5. Climate change: Wilderness's greatest challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nathan L. Stephenson; Constance I. Millar

    2012-01-01

    Anthropogenic climatic change can no longer be considered an abstract possibility. It is here, its effects are already evident, and changes are expected to accelerate in coming decades, profoundly altering wilderness ecosystems. At the most fundamental level, wilderness stewards will increasingly be confronted with a trade-off between untrammeled wilderness character...

  6. Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chance, Paul; Heward, William L.

    2010-01-01

    In "Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge," we conclude the special section by assuming that you have been persuaded by Thompson's paper or other evidence that global warming is real and poses a threat that must be dealt with, and that for now the only way to deal with it is by changing behavior. Then we ask what you, as behavior analysts, can do…

  7. Climate Change Adaptation in Africa | Page 2 | CRDI - Centre de ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate change is expected to hit developing countries hardest. Current levels of greenhouse gas emissions mean that many impacts are now unavoidable, ranging from decreased crop yields in regions where people are already undernourished, to increased incidence of serious climate-related disasters. Climate change ...

  8. Climate Change Adaptation in Africa | CRDI - Centre de recherches ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate change is expected to hit developing countries hardest. Current levels of greenhouse gas emissions mean that many impacts are now unavoidable, ranging from decreased crop yields in regions where people are already undernourished, to increased incidence of serious climate-related disasters. Climate change ...

  9. Climate Change Adaptation in Africa | Page 3 | CRDI - Centre de ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate change is expected to hit developing countries hardest. Current levels of greenhouse gas emissions mean that many impacts are now unavoidable, ranging from decreased crop yields in regions where people are already undernourished, to increased incidence of serious climate-related disasters. Climate change ...

  10. Climate Change Adaptation in Africa | Page 5 | CRDI - Centre de ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate change is expected to hit developing countries hardest. Current levels of greenhouse gas emissions mean that many impacts are now unavoidable, ranging from decreased crop yields in regions where people are already undernourished, to increased incidence of serious climate-related disasters. Climate change ...

  11. Climate Change Adaptation in Africa | Page 6 | CRDI - Centre de ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate change is expected to hit developing countries hardest. Current levels of greenhouse gas emissions mean that many impacts are now unavoidable, ranging from decreased crop yields in regions where people are already undernourished, to increased incidence of serious climate-related disasters. Climate change ...

  12. Climate Change Adaptation in Africa | Page 4 | CRDI - Centre de ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate change is expected to hit developing countries hardest. Current levels of greenhouse gas emissions mean that many impacts are now unavoidable, ranging from decreased crop yields in regions where people are already undernourished, to increased incidence of serious climate-related disasters. Climate change ...

  13. Climate change: where to now?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pearman, Graeme

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: The potential for human impact on global climate arose out of an understanding developed in the 19th century of the physical conditions influencing global temperatures. In the past three decades, observations and improved understanding of climate processes have led to the conclusions that the planet has warmed, this warming has been primarily due to increases of atmospheric greenhouse gases and that this has been due to human activities. But our knowledge is incomplete. The management of the risks associated with future climate change demands improvement of the knowledge base. Specific areas for improvement include the: role of aerosols in the amelioration or otherwise of warming trends; potential instability of systems, e.g. the deglaciation of Greenland that could lead to rapid destabilisation of climate; response of biological systems to climate change, their phrenology, behaviour, genetics and dispersion; opportunities for cost-effective managed adaptation; and improved technologies for meeting the energy demands. Climate science has been characterised by a level of integration of disciplinary fields uncommon in other areas. Yet the nature of the climate system, its diverse impacts and the range of mitigation options suggests that while disciplinary endeavours need to continue, further integration is required. Policy development requires the exploration of options that respect the complexity of climate and its impacts but also the pluralistic aspirations of societies. The 21st century should be characterised by considered, inclusive and strategic policy development. For science to contribute to this process, much more attention is needed to the processes involved in the exchange of knowledge between the scientific community and those who develop public or private policy. A new engagement and shared understanding of the potential role of science in modern societies, particularly with respect to climate change, is an essential component of

  14. Vulnerability of birds to climate change in California's Sierra Nevada

    OpenAIRE

    Rodney B. Siegel; Peter Pyle; James H. Thorne; Andrew J. Holguin; Christine A. Howell; Sarah Stock; Morgan W. Tingley

    2014-01-01

    In a rapidly changing climate, effective bird conservation requires not only reliable information about the current vulnerability of species of conservation concern, but also credible projections of their future vulnerability. Such projections may enable managers to preempt or reduce emerging climate-related threats through appropriate habitat management. We used NatureServe's Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to predict vulnerability to climate change of 168 bird species that breed i...

  15. Green paper on energy and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, R.; Whitmore, J.; Shariff, N.

    2005-11-01

    This green paper was created by the Canadian Environmental Network to initiate a dialogue on climate change and energy issues. Recommendations for energy strategies for Canada beyond 2012 were presented. An overview of recent climate science was presented, as well as various stabilization scenarios needed to prevent further climate change. A review of global energy trends working for and against action to prevent climate change was also provided. It was suggested that the stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations can only be achieved when the United States and large developing economies such as China, India and Brazil transform themselves into renewable-energy based economies. Renewable energy and energy efficiency must play a central role in future climate change regimes. It was suggested that nuclear power cannot be considered as an option to reduce GHGs due to its high cost, and on-going public concerns over long-term waste disposal, fuel-cycle health and safety. A viable global framework for stabilizing GHG concentrations built on the current regimes of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol was recommended. It was suggested that richer industrialized nations must take the lead by pursuing absolute reductions and providing assistance to developing nations for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. It was recommended that developing nations should contribute to global mitigation efforts by pursuing low-carbon intensity development paths, and that effective climate change policies must address the economic barriers faced by developing nations. Other recommendations included a regulatory regime for major energy producers and users incorporating progressively lower GHG emission targets; the elimination of all subsidies for the fossil fuel and nuclear fuel-cycle and power industries; the adoption of a national renewable energy strategy; the implementation of a national energy conservation and efficiency

  16. Climate change and respiratory health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerardi, Daniel A; Kellerman, Roy A

    2014-10-01

    To discuss the nature of climate change and both its immediate and long-term effects on human respiratory health. This review is based on information from a presentation of the American College of Chest Physicians course on Occupational and Environmental Lung Disease held in Toronto, Canada, June 2013. It is supplemented by a PubMed search for climate change, global warming, respiratory tract diseases, and respiratory health. It is also supplemented by a search of Web sites including the Environmental Protection Agency, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, World Meteorological Association, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change, and the World Health Organization. Health effects of climate change include an increase in the prevalence of certain respiratory diseases, exacerbations of chronic lung disease, premature mortality, allergic responses, and declines in lung function. Climate change, mediated by greenhouse gases, causes adverse health effects to the most vulnerable patient populations-the elderly, children, and those in distressed socioeconomic strata.

  17. Climate Change and Fish Availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Paul P. S.; Lassa, Jonatan; Caballero-Anthony, Mely

    Human consumption of fish has been trending upwards in the past decades and this is projected to continue. The main sources of fish are from wild fisheries (marine and freshwater) and aquaculture. Climate change is anticipated to affect the availability of fish through its effect on these two sources as well as on supply chain processes such as storage, transport, processing and retail. Climate change is known to result in warmer and more acid oceans. Ocean acidification due to higher CO2 concentration levels at sea modifies the distribution of phytoplankton and zooplankton to affect wild, capture fisheries. Higher temperature causes warm-water coral reefs to respond with species replacement and bleaching, leading to coral cover loss and habitat loss. Global changes in climatic systems may also cause fish invasion, extinction and turnover. While this may be catastrophic for small scale fish farming in poor tropical communities, there are also potential effects on animal protein supply shifts at local and global scales with food security consequences. This paper discusses the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture in the Asian Pacific region, with special emphasis on Southeast Asia. The key question to be addressed is “What are the impacts of global climate change on global fish harvests and what does it mean to the availability of fish?”

  18. Western water and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2015-01-01

    The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northernmost West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent.

  19. Western European cold spells in current and future climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vries, de H.; Haarsma, R.; Hazeleger, W.

    2012-01-01

    This paper discusses western European cold spells (where temperature falls below the 10\\\\% quantile of the winter temperature distribution) in current and future climate. It is demonstrated that many of the projected future changes in cold-spell statistics (duration, return period, intensity) can be

  20. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Cathy Egan

    change exacerbates shocks and stresses. The capacity of communities to adapt can be improved if they have access to economic and physical resources, as well as to technology, information, infra- structure, and institutions. Public policies can help provide these resources. But what happens if the policies themselves have ...

  1. Climate change, science and community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hak-Soo

    2012-04-01

    Climate change offers serious challenges to the effectiveness of science, communication, and community. It demands us to look back upon what we have done in regard to science and technology. In addition, it leads us to examine human efforts invested to solve collective, shared problems by communication and community. The process of behavior per se is found to be greatly overlooked in the establishment sciences, both natural and social, and in both theory and practice. A theory of behavior is introduced and explicated as a platform to solve such commons' problems as climate change. Finally, we find principled ways to improve effectiveness of communication and community by developing human capabilities so that we can win our battle against climate change and other potential tragedies of the commons.

  2. EU focus on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    Faced with the mounting evidence of the harmful effects of climate change, the European Union is convinced that the world must take urgent action to tackle the problem. That is why the EU has been at the forefront of international efforts to deal with climate change for well over a decade. The EU is convinced that the status quo is simply not an option. Without urgent, concerted action, the problem will continue to get worse with potentially disastrous consequences. That is why the European Union has consistently taken the lead in international moves to tackle climate change and why it will continue to develop this strategy for as long as it takes to guarantee a world for ourselves and our children where everyone can grow, breathe and live in safety

  3. Potential adjustments to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arthur, L.M.

    1990-01-01

    There are three basic approaches to the problem of climate change: prevention through reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, repair of damages by offsetting the effects of the gases, or learning to live with the climatic changes. Delaying greenhouse warming does not seem possible, at least not without substantial, unsupportable costs. A number of strategies to counter the effects of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases have been proposed, but few have been given serious attention. Alternatives include additions of particulate matter to the atmosphere, altering land use to change the earth's reflectivity, cultivating carbon-eating organisms in the ocean, and injecting sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere to absorb visible sunlight. A contrasting response to the aggravated greenhouse effect is to require the world to adjust. Before potential adaptation strategies can be identified, regional and sectoral impacts of climate change must be understood, but few studies to date are convincing. It is suggested that the best response may be to delay any action on climatic warming, except in those cases where action can be justified on the basis of immediate or non-climate related benfits. 10 refs

  4. Which climatic modeling to assess climate change impacts on vineyards?

    OpenAIRE

    Quenol, Herve; Garcia De Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Bois, Benjamin; Sturman, Andrew; Bonnardot, Valerie; Le Roux, Renan

    2017-01-01

    The impact of climatic change on viticulture is significant: main phenological stages appear earlier, wine characteristics are changing, ... This clearly illustrates the point that the adaptation of viticulture to climate change is crucial and should be based on simulations of future climate. Several types of models exist and are used to represent viticultural climates at various scales. In this paper, we propose a review of different types of climate models (methodology and uncertainties) an...

  5. Climate engineering research : A precautionary response to climate change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reynolds, J.L.; Fleurke, F.M.

    2013-01-01

    In the face of dire forecasts for anthropogenic climate change, climate engineering is increasingly discussed as a possible additional set of responses to reduce climate change’s threat. These proposals have been controversial, in part because they – like climate change itself – pose uncertain risks

  6. Climate change: Conflict of observational science, theory, and politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerhard, L.C.

    2004-01-01

    Debate over whether human activity causes Earth climate change obscures the immensity of the dynamic systems that create and maintain climate on the planet. Anthropocentric debate leads people to believe that they can alter these planetary dynamic systems to prevent that they perceive as negative climate impacts on human civilization. Although politicians offer simplistic remedies, such as the Kyoto Protocol, global climate continues to change naturally. Better planning for the inevitable dislocations that have followed natural global climate changes throughout human history requires us to accept the fact that climate will change, and that human society must adapt to the changes. Over the last decade, the scientific literature reported a shift in emphasis from attempting to build theoretical models of putative human impacts on climate to understanding the planetwide dynamic processes that are the natural climate drivers. The current scientific literature is beginning to report the history of past climate change, the extent of natural climate variability, natural system drivers, and the episodicity of many climate changes. The scientific arguments have broadened from focus upon human effects on climate to include the array of natural phenomena that have driven global climate change for eons. However, significant political issues with long-term social consequences continue their advance. This paper summarizes recent scientific progress in climate science and arguments about human influence on climate. ?? 2004. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

  7. Climate of Tajikistan in connection with global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khakimov, F.Kh.; Mirzokhonova, S.O.; Mirzokhonava, N.A.

    2006-01-01

    The analysis of global climate change for different periods and its consequences on regional climate is given. The chronology of climate change in Tajikistan in various regions and the reasons leading or resulted to these changes are changes are shown as well

  8. 3 Climate Change Adaptation Constraints.cdr

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    Introduction. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate. Change (IPCC) defines climate change as any change that occurs in the climate during a period of time which can range from decades to centuries (IPCC, 2007). Other scholars such as Hope (2009), termed climate change as the variability in temperature due to ...

  9. Cities and Climate Change : An Urgent Agenda

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2010-01-01

    The report discusses the link between climate change and cities, why cities should be concerned about climate change and adopt early preventative policies, and how the World Bank and other organizations can provide further support to cities on climate change issues. The report is one in a series of activities that explore the nexus of cities and climate change. This report, cities and clim...

  10. Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change · Climate Change: Generic Implications for Agriculture · Controlled environment facilities at IARI used for evaluating model performance in future climate change scenarios · Slide 4 · Slide 5 · Global studies indicate considerable impact of climate change in tropics.

  11. Climate Change and Public Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciesielski, Timothy

    2017-05-01

    It is clear that the public health community is concerned about the human health impacts of climate change, but are we inadvertently underestimating the scope of the problem and obfuscating potentially useful interventions by using a narrow intellectual frame in our discussions with policy makers? If we take a more holistic approach, we see that the public health impacts of climate change are only one subset of the enormous public health impacts of fossil fuel burning. This broader perspective can provide a more accurate and comprehensive assessment that is more useful for decision making in public policy settings.

  12. Distributional Aspects of Climate Change Impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tol, R.S.J. Tol; Kuik, O.J.; Downing, T.; Smith, J.B.

    2003-01-01

    This paper gives a brief review about the state of knowledge on the distributional aspects of climate change impacts. The paper is largely limited to the distribution of impacts between countries (in Section 2). Although there are virtually no estimates reported in the literature, the distribution of impacts within countries is also important. Impact estimates for different sectors (agriculture, health, sea level rise) provides little guidance for estimating differential impacts within countries. It is even harder to find estimates based on social classes. The paper restricts itself to equity about the consequences of climate change. Equity issues about the consequences of emission reduction are ignored here, but should of course be part of a policy analysis. Equity issues about procedures for decision making are also ignored. The paper is organised as follows. Section 2 reviews recent estimates of the regional impacts of climate change. Section 3 discusses alternative ways of aggregating regional impact estimates. Section 4 focusses on the vulnerability of the poor to climate change impacts, both with respect to exposure as well as to their limited capacity for adaptation. Section 5 discusses the impacts of economic development and other dynamic changes on vulnerability. The paper abstains from a discussion of aggregating climate change impacts over time, partly because the literature on that is too substantial to be reviewed here, and partly because, under virtually all scenarios, the current generation is the poorest and therefore particularly worthy in equity considerations. In Section 6 we present salient conclusions

  13. Homogenised Australian climate datasets used for climate change monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trewin, Blair; Jones, David; Collins; Dean; Jovanovic, Branislava; Braganza, Karl

    2007-01-01

    Full text: The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has developed a number of datasets for use in climate change monitoring. These datasets typically cover 50-200 stations distributed as evenly as possible over the Australian continent, and have been subject to detailed quality control and homogenisation.The time period over which data are available for each element is largely determined by the availability of data in digital form. Whilst nearly all Australian monthly and daily precipitation data have been digitised, a significant quantity of pre-1957 data (for temperature and evaporation) or pre-1987 data (for some other elements) remains to be digitised, and is not currently available for use in the climate change monitoring datasets. In the case of temperature and evaporation, the start date of the datasets is also determined by major changes in instruments or observing practices for which no adjustment is feasible at the present time. The datasets currently available cover: Monthly and daily precipitation (most stations commence 1915 or earlier, with many extending back to the late 19th century, and a few to the mid-19th century); Annual temperature (commences 1910); Daily temperature (commences 1910, with limited station coverage pre-1957); Twice-daily dewpoint/relative humidity (commences 1957); Monthly pan evaporation (commences 1970); Cloud amount (commences 1957) (Jovanovic etal. 2007). As well as the station-based datasets listed above, an additional dataset being developed for use in climate change monitoring (and other applications) covers tropical cyclones in the Australian region. This is described in more detail in Trewin (2007). The datasets already developed are used in analyses of observed climate change, which are available through the Australian Bureau of Meteorology website (http://www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg/). They are also used as a basis for routine climate monitoring, and in the datasets used for the development of seasonal

  14. Changing habits, changing climate : a foundation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enright, W.

    2001-03-01

    If Canada intends to meet its greenhouse gas reduction target of 6 per cent below 1990 levels, a fundamental shift in energy use by Canadians is required. The health sector will also be required to change. Global climate change is expected to affect regions differently, some might get wetter, some might get warmer, and others still might get colder. Climate changes will influence a number of health determinants: the geographical range of disease organisms and vectors; temperature extremes and violent weather events; air, food and water quality; the stability of ecosystems. There is a requirement to strongly regulate the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases to limit health risks. Increased air pollution could negatively affect large numbers of people, especially asthma sufferers and people suffering from chronic respiratory ailments and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in precipitation and temperature could increase insect-borne diseases. Water sources could be badly affected by drought, flooding or increased glacial runoff. The thinning of the ozone layer could result in additional skin cancers, impaired vision and other diseases. The document explores the various impacts resulting from climate change. A chapter is devoted to each topic: air pollution, temperature extremes, extreme weather events, vector borne diseases, drought and increased evaporation, food supply and ecosystem range, sea level rise, stratospheric ozone depletion and describes the health impacts. In addition, a chapter deals with aboriginal communities. The topic of environmental refugees is discussed, followed by an historical perspective into climate change policy in Canada. The author concludes with adaptation measures. Further emphasis must be placed on priority topics such as the estimation of future emissions and modelling of climate processes. refs., tabs., figs

  15. Maritime Archaeology and Climate Change: An Invitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Jeneva

    2016-12-01

    Maritime archaeology has a tremendous capacity to engage with climate change science. The field is uniquely positioned to support climate change research and the understanding of past human adaptations to climate change. Maritime archaeological data can inform on environmental shifts and submerged sites can serve as an important avenue for public outreach by mobilizing public interest and action towards understanding the impacts of climate change. Despite these opportunities, maritime archaeologists have not fully developed a role within climate change science and policy. Moreover, submerged site vulnerabilities stemming from climate change impacts are not yet well understood. This article discusses potential climate change threats to maritime archaeological resources, the challenges confronting cultural resource managers, and the contributions maritime archaeology can offer to climate change science. Maritime archaeology's ability to both support and benefit from climate change science argues its relevant and valuable place in the global climate change dialogue, but also reveals the necessity for our heightened engagement.

  16. The adaptation to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Gameren, Valentine; Weikmans, Romain; Zaccai, Edwin

    2014-01-01

    The authors address the issue of adaptation to climate change. They first address the physical aspects related to this issue: scenarios of temperature evolution, main possible impacts. Then, they address the social impacts related to climate risks, and the adaptation strategies which aim at reducing the exposure and vulnerability of human societies, or at increasing their resilience. Some examples of losses of human lives and of economic damages due to recent catastrophes related to climate change are evoked. The authors address the international framework, the emergence of an international regime on climate, the quite recent emergence of adaptation within international negotiations in 2001, the emergence of the idea of a support to developing countries. National and local policies are presented in the next chapter (in the European Union, the Netherlands which are faced with the issue of sea level rise, programs in developing countries) and their limitations are also outlined. The next chapter addresses the adaptation actions performed by private actors (enterprises, households, associations, civil society, and so on) with example of vulnerability, and adaptation opportunities and possibilities in some specific sectors. The last chapter presents a typology of actions of adaptation, indicators of adaptation to climate change, and examples of mistaken adaptation

  17. Climatic servitude: climate change, business and politics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belouve, J.M.

    2009-01-01

    This book is together a contemporary history book and a global dossier about a topic of prime importance in our civilization. It treats of the history of science, of ideas and events put in the modern civilization context, of science situation and scientific controversies, of the media aspects, of carbon economy and its related business, of Al Gore's and Maurice Strong's biographies, and finally, it makes a critical geopolitical analysis and makes proposals for a renovated ecology. In the conclusion, the author shows how climate change has become the hobbyhorse of a new thinking trend, namely the New World Order, aiming at conducting people to the acceptance of constraining policies encompassing the energy security of nations, new taxes, a worldwide economic disruption, the limitation of the World's population, and a World governance supported by the United Nations and not constrained by classical democratic rules. (J.S.)

  18. Mangrove ecosystems under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennerjahn, T.C.; Gilman, E.; Krauss, Ken W.; Lacerda, L.D.; Nordhaus, I.; Wolanski, E.

    2017-01-01

    This chapter assesses the response of mangrove ecosystems to possible outcomes of climate change, with regard to the following categories: (i) distribution, diversity, and community composition, (ii) physiology of flora and fauna, (iii) water budget, (iv) productivity and remineralization, (v) carbon storage in biomass and sediments, and (vi) the filter function for elements beneficial or harmful to life. These categories are then used to identify the regions most vulnerable to climate change. The four most important factors determining the response of mangrove ecosystems to climate change are sea level rise, an increase in frequency and/or intensity of storms, increases in temperature, and aridity. While these changes may be beneficial for some mangrove forests at latitudinal distribution limits, they will threaten forest structure and functions and related ecosystem services in most cases. The interaction of climate change with human interventions is discussed, as well as the effects on ecosystem services including possible adaptation and management options. The chapter closes with an outlook on knowledge gaps and priority research needed to fill these gaps.

  19. The economics of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    An international Conference on the Economics of Climate Change was convened by the OECD and the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, in June 1993. Participants included many of the world's foremost experts in the field, as well as representatives from business, labour, and other non-governmental organisations. The Conference sought to examine points of consensus and divergence among existing studies on the economics of climate change. Participants also focused on how economic analysis could contribute to meeting the obligations of OECD countries under the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change. Discussions centered on such topics as the economic costs and benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies, the potential role of carbon taxes and other economic instruments in the policy mix, possibilities for technological change and diffusion, especially in the energy sector, and joint abatement action between industrialized and developing countries. This volume contains the papers presented at the Conference, as well as summaries of the subsequent discussions. It provides an overview of the 'state of the art' in the economics of climate change and several suggestions for future research. (author)

  20. The origin of climate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delecluse, P

    2008-08-01

    Investigation on climate change is coordinated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has the delicate task of collecting recent knowledge on climate change and the related impacts of the observed changes, and then developing a consensus statement from these findings. The IPCC's last review, published at the end of 2007, summarised major findings on the present climate situation. The observations show a clear increase in the temperature of the Earth's surface and the oceans, a reduction in the land snow cover, and melting of the sea ice and glaciers. Numerical modelling combined with statistical analysis has shown that this warming trend is very likely the signature of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases linked with human activities. Given the continuing social and economic development around the world, the IPCC emission scenarios forecast an increasing greenhouse effect, at least until 2050 according to the most optimistic models. The model ensemble predicts a rising temperature that will reach dangerous levels for the biosphere and ecosystems within this century. Hydrological systems and the potential significant impacts of these systems on the environment are also discussed. Facing this challenging future, societies must take measures to reduce emissions and work on adapting to an inexorably changing environment. Present knowledge is sufficientto start taking action, but a stronger foundation is needed to ensure that pertinent long-term choices are made that will meet the demands of an interactive and rapidly evolving world.

  1. Climate change: is Southeast Asia up to the challenge?: forest and climate change policy: what are the costs of inaction?

    OpenAIRE

    Tim Forsyth

    2010-01-01

    Deforestation and forest degradation are some of the main contributors to anthropogenic climate change. Accordingly, policies to arrest deforestation or increase forest areas are proposed as important forms of climate change policy. This paper summarizes current proposals for addressing the contribution of forests to climate change, and the political problems of implementing these policies, especially in developing countries. The paper argues that current estimates of the likely sequestration...

  2. Arctic climate change in NORKLIMA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    The NORKLIMA programme is the national Norwegian initiative on climate research established for the period 2004-2013. The programme seeks to generate key knowledge about climate trends, the impacts of climate change, and how Norway can adapt to these changes. The NORKLIMA programme also encompasses research on instruments and policies for reducing emissions. Large-scale Programmes As part of the effort to meet national research-policy priorities, the Research Council has established a special funding instrument called the Large-scale Programmes. This initiative is designed to build long-term knowledge in order to encourage innovation and enhance value creation as well as to help find solutions to important challenges facing society.(Author)

  3. Animating the Discussion about Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratner, A.

    2016-12-01

    Abstract concepts such as climate change are extremely difficult for both students and adults to grasp. Given that many of these concepts involve issues at global scales or at a microscopic level, photos and video are simply insufficient much of the time. Through an innovative partnership between The Marine Mammal Center, a marine mammal hospital and education facility, and the California College of the Arts Animation Department, we have been able to provide animation students real-world experience in producing scientific animations, and the Center has been able to create an animated video highlighting the science of climate change and effects on marine mammals. Using the science direct from our veterinary and research teams, along with scientifically tested communication strategies related to climate change from the National Network of Ocean and Climate Change Interpretation and Frameworks Institute, this video enables us to teach students and adults of all ages these complex scientific concepts in a fun, engaging, and easily understandable way. Utilizing the skill set and expertise of the College professor as director (currently a lead animator at Pixar Animation), this video provided animation students critical experience in the animation field, exposure and engagement in a critical environmental issue, and an understanding of the opportunities available within the field of animation for educational and scientific purposes. This presentation will highlight the opportunities to utilize animation for educational purposes and provide resources surrounding climate change that could be beneficial to educators at their own organizations.

  4. Adaptation to climate change and industrial vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garnaud, Benjamin; Ferret, Celine

    2010-06-01

    In today's societies, the production base made up by the industrial fabric acts as an important link between the climate and its variations and our lifestyle. However, several decades of experience have often enabled us to minimise the impact of the weather and its fluctuations on activities, making the industrial sector out to be purely artificial and protected from climate impacts. Yet climate change leads us to challenge this assumption: if the industrial base is supposed to be impervious to the current climate, is this still the case in a context of climate change? In an attempt to answer this question, the Invulnerable project was launched, led by the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI) and bringing together scientific and industrial partners (Meteo-France, IPSL, CERFACS). Observing the availability of scientific resources on climate change, partly resulting from the modeling research coordinated by the IPCC, the idea was to work with industries to identify their vulnerabilities and to use these to define indicators for climatologists. These indicators are not chosen by scientists without consulting industries, but are in fact defined by these industries to ensure they correspond to their needs as closely as possible. The challenge is therefore to bring together scientists and industries and to catalyse a mutual understanding to ensure this discussion results in one or several indicators that are relevant to the activity in question and on which climatologists can work

  5. Climate change is predicted to alter the current pest status of Globodera pallida and G. rostochiensis in the United Kingdom

    OpenAIRE

    Jones, Laura M.; Koehler, Ann‐Kristin; Trnka, Mirek; Balek, Jan; Challinor, Andrew J.; Atkinson, Howard J.; Urwin, Peter E.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract The potato cyst nematodes Globodera pallida and G. rostochiensis are economically important plant pathogens causing losses to UK potato harvests estimated at £50 m/ year. Implications of climate change on their future pest status have not been fully considered. Here, we report growth of female G. pallida and G. rostochiensis over the range 15 to 25°C. Females per plant and their fecundity declined progressively with temperatures above 17.5°C for G. pallida, whilst females per plant w...

  6. A history of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hastrup, Kirsten Blinkenberg

    2016-01-01

    This article presents a small community of High Arctic hunters (the Inughuit in North West Greenland) who have always had to negotiate climatic changes with great impact on their living conditions. This points us toward the natural-social entanglements implied in the notion of the Anthropocene...

  7. Climate change and related activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The production and consumption of energy contributes to the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and is the focus of other environmental concerns as well. Yet the use of energy contributes to worldwide economic growth and development. If we are to achieve environmentally sound economic growth, we must develop and deploy energy technologies that contribute to global stewardship. The Department of Energy carries out an aggressive scientific research program to address some of the key uncertainties associated with the climate change issue. Of course, research simply to study the science of global climate change is not enough. At the heart of any regime of cost-effective actions to address the possibility of global climate change will be a panoply of new technologies-technologies both to provide the services we demand and to use energy more efficiently than in the past. These, too, are important areas of responsibility for the Department. This report is a brief description of the Department's activities in scientific research, technology development, policy studies, and international cooperation that are directly related to or have some bearing on the issue of global climate change

  8. Population, Poverty, and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Monica Das Gupta

    2014-01-01

    The literature is reviewed on the relationships between population, poverty, and climate change. While developed countries are largely responsible for global warming, the brunt of the fallout will be borne by the developing world, in lower agricultural output, poorer health, and more frequent natural disasters. Carbon emissions in the developed world have leveled off, but are projected to ...

  9. Students' evaluations about climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardi, Doug; Brandt, Carol B.; Bickel, Elliot S.; Burg, Colin

    2016-05-01

    Scientists regularly evaluate alternative explanations of phenomena and solutions to problems. Students should similarly engage in critical evaluation when learning about scientific and engineering topics. However, students do not often demonstrate sophisticated evaluation skills in the classroom. The purpose of the present study was to investigate middle school students' evaluations when confronted with alternative explanations of the complex and controversial topic of climate change. Through a qualitative analysis, we determined that students demonstrated four distinct categories of evaluation when writing about the connections between evidence and alternative explanations of climate change: (a) erroneous evaluation, (b) descriptive evaluation, (c) relational evaluation, and (d) critical evaluation. These categories represent different types of evaluation quality. A quantitative analysis revealed that types of evaluation, along with plausibility perceptions about the alternative explanations, were significant predictors of postinstructional knowledge about scientific principles underlying the climate change phenomenon. Specifically, more robust evaluations and greater plausibility toward the scientifically accepted model of human-induced climate change predicted greater knowledge. These findings demonstrate that instruction promoting critical evaluation and plausibility appraisal may promote greater understanding of socio-scientific topics and increased use of scientific thinking when considering alternative explanations, as is called for by recent science education reform efforts.

  10. Climatic Change and Human Evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garratt, John R.

    1995-01-01

    Traces the history of the Earth over four billion years, and shows how climate has had an important role to play in the evolution of humans. Posits that the world's rapidly growing human population and its increasing use of energy is the cause of present-day changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. (Author/JRH)

  11. Nuclear energy and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez Jimenez, A.

    2002-01-01

    Energy is one of the essential motives for social and economic development of the humanity. Nuclear energy is a feasible option to stand up to a larger demand of energy, and it is playing, and will continue playing in the future, a decisive role in the debate about climate change and sustainable development, and in the efforts to reduce the CO 2 emissions. (Author)

  12. Climate Change and Respiratory Infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirsaeidi, Mehdi; Motahari, Hooman; Taghizadeh Khamesi, Mojdeh; Sharifi, Arash; Campos, Michael; Schraufnagel, Dean E

    2016-08-01

    The rate of global warming has accelerated over the past 50 years. Increasing surface temperature is melting glaciers and raising the sea level. More flooding, droughts, hurricanes, and heat waves are being reported. Accelerated changes in climate are already affecting human health, in part by altering the epidemiology of climate-sensitive pathogens. In particular, climate change may alter the incidence and severity of respiratory infections by affecting vectors and host immune responses. Certain respiratory infections, such as avian influenza and coccidioidomycosis, are occurring in locations previously unaffected, apparently because of global warming. Young children and older adults appear to be particularly vulnerable to rapid fluctuations in ambient temperature. For example, an increase in the incidence in childhood pneumonia in Australia has been associated with sharp temperature drops from one day to the next. Extreme weather events, such as heat waves, floods, major storms, drought, and wildfires, are also believed to change the incidence of respiratory infections. An outbreak of aspergillosis among Japanese survivors of the 2011 tsunami is one such well-documented example. Changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and air pollution influence viral activity and transmission. For example, in early 2000, an outbreak of Hantavirus respiratory disease was linked to a local increase in the rodent population, which in turn was attributed to a two- to threefold increase in rainfall before the outbreak. Climate-sensitive respiratory pathogens present challenges to respiratory health that may be far greater in the foreseeable future.

  13. Indigenous Peoples and Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelton H. Davis

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available There has been a growing attention on the need to take into account the effects of global climate change. This is particularly so with respect to the increasing amount of green house gas emissions from the Untied States and Europe affecting poor peoples, especially those in developing countries. In 2003, for example, the experts of several international development agencies, including the World Bank, prepared a special report titled “Poverty and Climate Change: Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor through Adaptation” (OECD 2003. This report followed the Eighth Session of the Conference of Parties (COP8 to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC in New Delhi, India in October 2002. It showed that poverty reduction is not only one of the major challenges of the 21st century, but also that climate change is taking place in many developing countries and is increasingly affecting, in a negative fashion, both the economic conditions and the health of poor people and their communities.

  14. Climate change, zoonoses and India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, B B; Sharma, R; Gill, J P S; Aulakh, R S; Banga, H S

    2011-12-01

    Economic trends have shaped our growth and the growth of the livestock sector, but atthe expense of altering natural resources and systems in ways that are not always obvious. Now, however, the reverse is beginning to happen, i.e. environmental trends are beginning to shape our economy and health status. In addition to water, air and food, animals and birds play a pivotal role in the maintenance and transmission of important zoonotic diseases in nature. It is generally considered that the prevalence of vector-borne and waterborne zoonoses is likely to increase in the coming years due to the effects of global warming in India. In recent years, vector-borne diseases have emerged as a serious public health problem in countries of the South-East Asia region, including India. Vector-borne zoonoses now occur in epidemic form almost on an annual basis, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. New reservoir areas of cutaneous leishmaniosis in South India have been recognised, and the role of climate change in its re-emergence warrants further research, as does the role of climate change in the ascendancy of waterborne and foodborne illness. Similarly, climate change that leads to warmer and more humid conditions may increase the risk of transmission of airborne zoonoses, and hot and drier conditions may lead to a decline in the incidence of disease(s). The prevalence of these zoonotic diseases and their vectors and the effect of climate change on important zoonoses in India are discussed in this review.

  15. A Lesson on Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Jim

    This cooperative learning activity, for grades 7-12, promotes critical thinking skills within the context of learning about the causes and effects of climate change. Objectives include: (1) understanding factors that reduce greenhouse gases; (2) understanding the role of trees in reducing greenhouse gases; (3) identifying foods that produce…

  16. Danish forestry and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larsen, J.B.; Saxe, H.

    2001-01-01

    Results from Danish experimental field and chamber studies indicate that in general the projected climatic changes are likely to promote tree growth especially for those trees, which have their northern limit in southern Scandinavia. The only major species which will experience a setback, is Norway Spruce - unfortunately however so far the most common commercially planted tree in Denmark. (LN)

  17. Climate Change: Evidence and Causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The fundamentals of climate change are well established: greenhouse gases warm the planet; their concentrations in the atmosphere are increasing; Earth has warmed, and is going to continue warming with a range of impacts. This article summarises the contents of a recent publication issued by the UK's Royal Society and the US National Academy of…

  18. The Science of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppenheimer, Michael; Anttila-Hughes, Jesse K.

    2016-01-01

    Michael Oppenheimer and Jesse Anttila-Hughes begin with a primer on how the greenhouse effect works, how we know that Earth is rapidly getting warmer, and how we know that the recent warming is caused by human activity. They explain the sources of scientific knowledge about climate change as well as the basis for the models scientists use to…

  19. Research for climate change adaptation

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Corey Piccioni

    Climate change is being felt globally, particularly in developing countries, with impacts in the form of more frequent and severe flooding, extreme weather, desertification, and rising sea levels, amongst others. These impacts are ulti- mately affecting water availability, food security, and livelihoods for millions of vulnerable ...

  20. Regional Highlights of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    David L. Peterson; J.M. Wolken; Teresa Hollingsworth; Christian Giardina; J.S. Littell; Linda Joyce; Chris Swanston; Stephen Handler; Lindsey Rustad; Steve McNulty

    2014-01-01

    Climatic extremes, ecological disturbance, and their interactions are expected to have major effects on ecosystems and social systems in most regions of the United States in the coming decades. In Alaska, where the largest temperature increases have occurred, permafrost is melting, carbon is being released, and fire regimes are changing, leading to a...

  1. Forest disturbances under climate change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Seidl, R.; Thom, D.; Kautz, M.; Martin-Benito, D.; Peltoniemi, M.; Vacchiano, G.; Wild, Jan; Ascoli, D.; Petr, M.; Honkaniemi, J.; Lexer, M. J.; Trotsiuk, V.; Mairota, P.; Svoboda, M.; Fabrika, M.; Nagel, T.A.; Reyer, C. P. O.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 7, č. 6 (2017), s. 395-402 ISSN 1758-678X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LD15158 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : climate change * disturbance * forest Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Ecology Impact factor: 19.304, year: 2016

  2. The Whiteness of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lars

    2011-01-01

    This article examines two major debates in contemporary Australian discourses on the nation: climate change and whiteness studies. It is primarily concerned with establishing a framework for connecting the two discourses, and in that process it raises pivotal questions about how narratives about...

  3. Climate change and infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flahault, Antoine; de Castaneda, Rafael Ruiz; Bolon, Isabelle

    Global changes are major determinants for infectious diseases, although attributable, part of climate change remains debatable. Vector-borne diseases are prone to be impacted by global warming, although other factors may play a substantial role, evidenced by the dramatic decrease in malaria in the last decades in places where climate change has deep and significant effects. There is now evidence that in some areas of the world, e.g. Horn of Africa, warm El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO), which are observed in the South Pacific Ocean, are associated with higher risk of emergence of Rift Valley fever, cholera and malaria and during cold La Niña events, dengue fever, chikungunya and yellow fever. This has been observed for these and other diseases in other parts of the world. For example, seasonal influenza outbreaks have been more intense (i.e. higher number) and more severe (i.e. higher mortality) when concomitant with La Niña events. Since climate scientists have recently observed that climate change is tied to more frequent and more intense ENSO events, we may foresee increases in frequency and severity in emerging infectious diseases in the world.

  4. Comments on Current Space Systems Observing the Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisk, L. A.

    2016-07-01

    The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), which was established in 1992, has been effective in specifying the observations needed for climate studies, and advocating that these observations be made. As a result, there are essential climate variables being observed, particularly from space, and these have formed the basis for our ever-improving models of how the Earth system functions and the human impact on it. We cannot conclude, however, that the current observing system in space is adequate. Climate change is accelerating, and we need to ensure that our observations capture, with completeness and with proper resolution and cadence, the most important changes. Perhaps of most significance, we need to use observations from space to guide the mitigation and adaptation strategies on which at last our civilization seems prepared to embark. And we need to use our observations to educate particularly policy makers on the reality of climate change, so that none deny the need to act. COSPAR is determined to play its part in highlighting the need to strengthen the climate observing system and notably its research component. This is being accomplished through events like the present roundtable, through the work of its Scientific Commission A, its Task Group on GEO (where COSPAR is serving as a member of its Program Board), and by promoting among space agencies and policy-makers the recently released scientific roadmap on Integrated Earth System Science for the period 2016-2025.

  5. Climate Change and Intertidal Wetlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pauline M. Ross

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Intertidal wetlands are recognised for the provision of a range of valued ecosystem services. The two major categories of intertidal wetlands discussed in this contribution are saltmarshes and mangrove forests. Intertidal wetlands are under threat from a range of anthropogenic causes, some site-specific, others acting globally. Globally acting factors include climate change and its driving cause—the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. One direct consequence of climate change will be global sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and, in the longer term, the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The relative sea level rise experienced at any one locality will be affected by a range of factors, as will the response of intertidal wetlands to the change in sea level. If relative sea level is rising and sedimentation within intertidal wetlands does not keep pace, then there will be loss of intertidal wetlands from the seaward edge, with survival of the ecosystems only possible if they can retreat inland. When retreat is not possible, the wetland area will decline in response to the “squeeze” experienced. Any changes to intertidal wetland vegetation, as a consequence of climate change, will have flow on effects to biota, while changes to biota will affect intertidal vegetation. Wetland biota may respond to climate change by shifting in distribution and abundance landward, evolving or becoming extinct. In addition, impacts from ocean acidification and warming are predicted to affect the fertilisation, larval development, growth and survival of intertidal wetland biota including macroinvertebrates, such as molluscs and crabs, and vertebrates such as fish and potentially birds. The capacity of organisms to move and adapt will depend on their life history characteristics, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, inheritability of adaptive characteristics, and the predicted rates of environmental change.

  6. A Robust, Scalable Framework for Conducting Climate Change Susceptibility Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-01

    Climate change and extreme weather events: implications for food production, plant diseases, and pests . Global Change and Human Health 2:90–104. ERDC/EL...Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. ERDC/EL TN-14-1 May 2014 A Robust, Scalable Framework for Conducting Climate Change ...consider climate change during their planning processes as future landscapes have the potential to vary greatly from current conditions. Military

  7. Technical progress and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ausubel, J.H.

    1995-01-01

    The global warming debate has neglected and thus underestimated the importance of technical change in considering reduction in greenhouse gases and adaptation to climate change. Relevant quantitative cases of long-run technical change during the past 100 years are presented in computing, communications, transport, energy, and agriculture. A noteworthy technological trajectory is that of decarbonization, or decreasing carbon intensity of primary energy. If human societies have not yet reached the end of the history of technology, the cost structure for mitigation and adaptation changes could be cheap. (Author)

  8. Climate change and malaria risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martens, W.J.M. [University of Limburg, Department of Mathematics, Maastricht (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malaria parasite and its vector are sensitive to climate influences especially temperature and precipitation. In this paper the effects of an increase in temperature on the epidemic potential of malaria are explored. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk suggests a widespread increase of risk due to an expansion of areas suitable for malaria transmission. The health impact will be most pronounced in populations living in the less economically-developed temperate areas in which endemicity is low or absent. 1 fig., 2 tabs., 9 refs.

  9. Portuguese wine regions under a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, João A.; Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Jones, Gregory V.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2014-05-01

    Viticulture and wine production are among the most important sectors of the Portuguese economy. However, as grapevines are strongly affected by weather and climate, climate change may represent an important threat to wine production. The current (1950-2000) and future (2041-2070) bioclimatic conditions in Portugal are discussed by analyzing a number of indices suitable for viticultural zoning, including a categorized bioclimatic index. A two-step method of spatial pattern downscaling is applied in order to achieve a very high spatial resolution (of approximately 1 km) throughout Portugal. Future projections are based on an ensemble of 13 climate model transient experiments, forced by the SRES A1B emission scenario. Results for the recent past are in clear agreement with the current distribution of vineyards and of the established Denomination of Origin regions. Furthermore, the typical climatic conditions associated with each grapevine variety that are currently grown in Portugal are assessed. Under future scenarios, nevertheless, the current conditions are projected to change significantly towards a lower bioclimatic diversity. This can be explained by the projected warming and drying in future decades. The resulting changes in varietal suitability and wine characteristics of each region may thereby bring important challenges for the Portuguese winemaking sector. As such, new measures need to be timely implemented to adapt to these climate change projections and to mitigate their likely detrimental impacts on the Portuguese economy. Acknowledgments: this work is supported by European Union Funds (FEDER/COMPETE - Operational Competitiveness Programme) and by national funds (FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) under the project ClimVineSafe (PTDC/AGR-ALI/110877/2009).

  10. Science Matters Podcast: Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Listen to a podcast with Dr. Andy Miller, the Associate Director for Climate for the Agency's Air, Climate, and Energy Research Program, as he answers questions about climate change research, or read some of the highlights from the conversation here.

  11. The European Climate Change Programme. EU Action against Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    The European Union has long been committed to international efforts to tackle climate change and felt the duty to set an example through robust policy-making at home. At European level a comprehensive package of policy measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has been initiated through the European Climate Change Programme (ECCP). Each of the 25 EU Member States has also put in place its own domestic actions that build on the ECCP measures or complement them. The European Commission established the ECCP in 2000 to help identify the most environmentally effective and most cost-effective policies and measures that can be taken at European level to cut greenhouse gas emissions. The immediate goal is to help ensure that the EU meets its target for reducing emissions under the Kyoto Protocol. This requires the 15 countries that were EU members before 2004 to cut their combined emissions of greenhouse gases to 8% below the 1990 level by 2012

  12. Climate change and energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hengeveld, H.G.

    1991-01-01

    Climate and weather events affect energy demand in most economic sectors. Linear relationships exist between consumption and heating degree days, and peak electricity demand increases significantly during heat waves. The relative magnitudes of demand changes for a two times carbon dioxide concentration scenario are tabulated, illustrating heating degree days and cooling degree days for 5 Prairie locations. Irrigation, water management, crop seeding and harvesting and weed control are examples of climate-dependent agricultural activities involving significant energy use. The variability of summer season liquid fuel use in the agricultural sector in the Prairie provinces from 1984-1989 shows a relationship between agricultural energy use and regional climate fluctuations. 4 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

  13. Improving leadership on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chandani, Achala

    2011-03-15

    The upcoming UN conference on climate change in Durban, South Africa throws a spotlight on African climate policy. As part of a knowledge-sharing initiative in Southern Africa, we assessed parliamentarians' needs for more information on climate threats and responses, and ways to improve their capabilities as key stakeholders influencing national and global decisionmaking. Funded by the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office and partnered with the Association of European Parliamentarians with Africa (AWEPA), IIED worked with parliamentarians in the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) — Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland — through interviews, literature surveys, field trips and workshops. Similar studies in Malawi and Scotland also fed into this project.

  14. A common-sense climate index: is climate changing noticeably?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Glascoe, J.; Ruedy, R.

    1998-01-01

    We propose an index of climate change based on practical climate indicators such as heating degree days and the frequency of intense precipitation. We find that in most regions the index is positive, the sense predicted to accompany global warming. In a few regions, especially in Asia and western North America, the index indicates that climate change should be apparent already, but in most places climate trends are too small to stand out above year-to-year variability. The climate index is strongly correlated with global surface temperature, which has increased as rapidly as projected by climate models in the 1980s. We argue that the global area with obvious climate change will increase notably in the next few years. But we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has declined in recent years, and thus there is an opportunity to keep climate change in the 21st century less than "business-as-usual" scenarios.

  15. The ACPI Climate Change Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dai, A.; Washington, W.M.; Meehl, G.A.; Bettge, T.W.; Strand, W.G.

    2004-01-01

    The Parallel Climate Model (PCM) has been used in the Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative (ACPI) Program to simulate the global climate response to projected CO2, sulfate, and other greenhouse gas forcing under a business-as-usual emissions scenario during the 21st century. In these runs, the oceans were initialized to 1995 conditions by a group from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and other institutions. An ensemble of three model runs was then carried out to the year 2099 using the projected forcing. Atmospheric data from these runs were saved at 6-hourly intervals (hourly for certain critical fields) to support the ACPI objective of accurately modeling hydrological cycles over the western U.S. It is shown that the initialization to 1995 conditions partly removes the un-forced oceanic temperature and salinity drifts that occurred in the standard 20th century integration. The ACPI runs show a global surface temperature increase of 3-8C over northern high-latitudes by the end of the 21st century, and 1-2C over the oceans. This is generally within ±0.1C of model runs without the 1995 ocean initialization. The exception is in the Antarctic circumpolar ocean where surface air temperature is cooler in the ACPI run; however the ensemble scatter is large in this region. Although the difference in climate at the end of the 21st century is minimal between the ACPI runs and traditionally spun up runs, it might be larger for CGCMs with higher climate sensitivity or larger ocean drifts. Our results suggest that the effect of small errors in the oceans (such as those associated with climate drifts) on CGCM-simulated climate changes for the next 50-100 years may be negligible

  16. Climate change is predicted to alter the current pest status of Globodera pallida and G. rostochiensis in the United Kingdom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Laura M; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Trnka, Mirek; Balek, Jan; Challinor, Andrew J; Atkinson, Howard J; Urwin, Peter E

    2017-11-01

    The potato cyst nematodes Globodera pallida and G. rostochiensis are economically important plant pathogens causing losses to UK potato harvests estimated at £50 m/ year. Implications of climate change on their future pest status have not been fully considered. Here, we report growth of female G. pallida and G. rostochiensis over the range 15 to 25°C. Females per plant and their fecundity declined progressively with temperatures above 17.5°C for G. pallida, whilst females per plant were optimal between 17.5 and 22.5°C for G. rostochiensis. Relative reproductive success with temperature was confirmed on two potato cultivars infected with either species at 15, 22.5 and 25°C. The reduced reproductive success of G. pallida at 22.5°C relative to 15°C was also recorded for a further seven host cultivars studied. The differences in optimal temperatures for reproductive success may relate to known differences in the altitude of their regions of origin in the Andes. Exposure of G. pallida to a diurnal temperature stress for one week during female growth significantly suppressed subsequent growth for one week at 17.5°C but had no effect on G. rostochiensis. However, after two weeks of recovery, female size was not significantly different from that for the control treatment. Future soil temperatures were simulated for medium- and high-emission scenarios and combined with nematode growth data to project future implications of climate change for the two species. Increased soil temperatures associated with climate change may reduce the pest status of G. pallida but benefit G. rostochiensis especially in the southern United Kingdom. We conclude that plant breeders may be able to exploit the thermal limits of G. pallida by developing potato cultivars able to grow under future warm summer conditions. Existing widely deployed resistance to G. rostochiensis is an important characteristic to retain for new potato cultivars. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change

  17. Impact of projected climate change on agricultural production in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... a case study area. APSIM software was used to investigate the response of maize (Zea mays L.) yield to different agronomic management practices using current and future (2046 - 2065) climate data. The climate change projections data from global climate models were downscaled using self-organising maps technique.

  18. Climate challenge 2012: growth and climate change - Socio-economical impacts of climate change. Conference proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orange-Louboutin, Mylene; Robinet, Olivier; Delalande, Daniel; Reysset, Bertrand; De Perthuis, Christian; Le Treut, Herve; Cottenceau, Jean-Baptiste; Ayong, Alain; Daubaire, Aurelien; Gaudin, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    The contributions of this conference session proposed comments and discussion on the relationship between climate change and 'green' growth, on the status of scientific knowledge on climate change (from global to local), on the way to perform carbon print assessment and to decide which actions to implement, on the costs and opportunity of impacts of climate change, on the economy of adaptation, on the benefits and costs of the adaptation policy, and on impacts of climate change on employment in quantitative terms and in terms of profession types

  19. Climate changes over the past millennium: Relationships with Mediterranean climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mann, M.E.

    2006-01-01

    Evidence is reviewed for climate change and its causes over the interval spanning roughly the past millennium. Particular emphasis is placed on patterns of climate change influencing Mediterranean climates of the Northern Hemisphere. The evidence is taken from studies using high-resolution climate proxy data sources, and climate modeling simulations. The available evidence suggests that forced changes in dynamical modes of variability including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have played a key role in the patterns of climate variability in Mediterranean regions over the past millennium

  20. Climate modelling, uncertainty and responses to predictions of change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henderson-Sellers, A.

    1996-01-01

    Article 4.1(F) of the Framework Convention on Climate Change commits all parties to take climate change considerations into account, to the extent feasible, in relevant social, economic and environmental policies and actions and to employ methods such as impact assessments to minimize adverse effects of climate change. This could be achieved by, inter alia, incorporating climate change risk assessment into development planning processes, i.e. relating climatic change to issues of habitability and sustainability. Adaptation is an ubiquitous and beneficial natural and human strategy. Future adaptation (adjustment) to climate is inevitable at the least to decrease the vulnerability to current climatic impacts. An urgent issue is the mismatch between the predictions of global climatic change and the need for information on local to regional change in order to develop adaptation strategies. Mitigation efforts are essential since the more successful mitigation activities are, the less need there will be for adaptation responses. And, mitigation responses can be global (e.g. a uniform percentage reduction in greenhouse gas emissions) while adaptation responses will be local to regional in character and therefore depend upon confident predictions of regional climatic change. The dilemma facing policymakers is that scientists have considerable confidence in likely global climatic changes but virtually zero confidence in regional changes. Mitigation and adaptation strategies relevant to climatic change can most usefully be developed in the context of sound understanding of climate, especially the near-surface continental climate, permitting discussion of societally relevant issues. But, climate models can't yet deliver this type of regionally and locationally specific prediction and some aspects of current research even seem to indicate increased uncertainty. These topics are explored in this paper using the specific example of the prediction of land-surface climate changes

  1. Grapevine phenology and climate change in Georgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cola, G; Failla, O; Maghradze, D; Megrelidze, L; Mariani, L

    2017-04-01

    While the climate of Western Europe has been deeply affected by the abrupt climate change that took place in the late '1980s of the twentieth century, a similar signal is detected only few years later, in 1994, in Georgia. Grapevine phenology is deeply influenced by climate and this paper aimed to analyze how phenological timing changed before and after the climatic change of 1994. Availability of thermal resources in the two climatic phases for the five altitudinal belts in the 0-1250-m range was analyzed. A phenological dataset gathered in two experimental sites during the period 2012-2014, and a suitable thermal dataset was used to calibrate a phenological model based on the normal approach and able to describe BBCH phenological stages 61 (beginning of flowering), 71 (fruit set), and 81 (veraison). Calibration was performed for four relevant Georgian varieties (Mtsvane Kakhuri, Rkatsiteli, Ojaleshi, and Saperavi). The model validation was performed on an independent 3-year dataset gathered in Gorizia (Italy). Furthermore, in the case of variety Rkatsiteli, the model was applied to the 1974-2013 thermal time series in order to obtain phenological maps of the Georgian territory. Results show that after the climate change of 1994, Rkatsiteli showed an advance, more relevant at higher altitudes where the whole increase of thermal resource was effectively translated in phenological advance. For instance the average advance of veraison was 5.9 days for 250-500 m asl belt and 18.1 days for 750-1000 m asl). On the other hand, at lower altitudes, phenological advance was depleted by superoptimal temperatures. As a final result, some suggestions for the adaptation of viticultural practices to the current climatic phase are provided.

  2. The climatic change induced by human activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balairon Ruiz, L.

    2004-01-01

    The climate of the Earth is a changing climate. Along their history many natural climate changes have existed in all time scales. At the present time we use the term climate changes have existed in all time scales. At the present time we use the term climate change in a restricted way, understanding that we have referring to a singular change that has their origin in the modification of the natural composition of the atmosphere. The increase of greenhouse gases from the second half the XVIII century, is due to the human activities of fossil fuels burning to obtain energy and to industrial and agricultural activities needing for the development of a world which population has been duplicated between 1960 and 2000, until overcoming the 6,000 million inhabitants. In particular, the concentrations of carbon dioxide-CO 2 have increased in a 34%. The more recent emission scenarios proposed by the IPCC (SRES, 2000) are based on hypothesis about the population evolution, the energy consumption and the word patterns of development, which are grouped in four families dominated as A1, A2, B1 and B2. The answer for these scenarios from a range of climate models results in an increase of the world average surface atmospheric temperature between 1,4 degree centigrade and 5,8 degree centigrade and a corresponding sea level rise understood between 9 cm and 88 cm. The changes in the precipitation patterns show us that could be above to the current one in high and media latitudes and below in subtropical latitudes, with exceptions highly depending of the model used. (Author)

  3. Weather anomalies affect Climate Change microblogging intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molodtsova, T.; Kirilenko, A.

    2012-12-01

    There is a huge gap between the scientific consensus and public understanding of climate change. Climate change has become a political issue and a "hot" topic in mass media that only adds the complexity to forming the public opinion. Scientists operate in scientific terms, not necessarily understandable by general public, while it is common for people to perceive the latest weather anomaly as an evidence of climate change. In 1998 Hansen et al. introduced a concept of an objectively measured subjective climate change indicator, which can relate public feeling that the climate is changing to the observed meteorological parameters. We tested this concept in a simple example of a temperature-based index, which we related to microblogging activity. Microblogging is a new form of communication in which the users describe their current status in short Internet messages. Twitter (http://twitter.com), is currently the most popular microblogging platform. There are multiple reasons, why this data is particularly valuable to the researches interested in social dynamics: microblogging is widely used to publicize one's opinion with the public; has broad, diverse audience, represented by users from many countries speaking different languages; finally, Twitter contains an enormous number of data, e.g., there were 1,284,579 messages related to climate change from 585,168 users in the January-May data collection. We collected the textual data entries, containing words "climate change" or "global warming" from the 1st of January, 2012. The data was retrieved from the Internet every 20 minutes using a specially developed Python code. Using geolocational information, blog entries originating from the New York urbanized area were selected. These entries, used as a source of public opinion on climate change, were related to the surface temperature, obtained from La Guardia airport meteorological station. We defined the "significant change" in the temperature index as deviation of the

  4. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, David W; Barnett, Tim P; Santer, Benjamin D; Gleckler, Peter J

    2009-05-26

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures.

  5. Climate project screening tool: an aid for climate change adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toni Lyn Morelli; Sharon Yeh; Nikola M. Smith; Mary Beth Hennessy; Constance I. Millar

    2012-01-01

    To address the impacts of climate change, land managers need techniques for incorporating adaptation into ongoing or impending projects. We present a new tool, the Climate Project Screening Tool (CPST), for integrating climate change considerations into project planning as well as for developing concrete adaptation options for land managers. We designed CPST as part of...

  6. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE

    OpenAIRE

    Kanchan Joshi; Preeti Chaturvedi

    2013-01-01

    Climate change has materialized as the leading global environmental concern. Agriculture is one of the zones most critically distressed by climate alteration. As global temperature rises and climate conditions become more erratic posing threat to the vegetation, biodiversity, biological progression and have enduring effect on food security as well as human health. The present review emphasizes multiple consequences of climate change on agricultural productivity.

  7. Ocean circulation and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasselmann, Klaus

    1991-09-01

    Recent numerical simulations using global ocean circulation models are reviewed together with model experiments involving further important climate sub-systems with which the ocean interacts: the atmosphere, the air-sea interface and the global carbon cycle. A common feature of all ocean circulation experiments considered is the strong sensitivity of the circulation to relatively minor changes in surface forcing, particularly to the buoyancy fluxes in regions of deep water formation in high latitudes. This may explain some of the well-known deficiencies of past global ocean circulation simulations. The strong sensitivity may also have been the cause of rapid climate changes observed in paleoclimatic records and can lead further to significant natural climate variability on the time scales of a few hundred years through the stochastic forcing of the ocean by atmospheric weather variability. Gobal warming computations using two different coupled ocean-atmosphere models for the "business-as-usual" scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change yield a significantly stronger warming delay due to the heat uptake by the oceans in the Southern Ocean than estimated on the basis of box-diffusion models. Recent advances in surface wave modelling, illustrated by a comparison of wave height fields derived from the WAM model and the GEOSAT altimeter, hold promise for the development of an improved representation of ocean-atmosphere coupling based on an explicit description of the dynamical processes at the air-sea interface. Global carbon cycle simulations with a three dimensional carbon cycle model tuned to reproduce past variations of carbon cycle indices show a significant impact of variations in the ocean circulation on the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and thereby on climate. The series of experiments suggest that for the study of climate in the time scale range from 101-103years, it would be highly desirable, and has indeed now become feasible, to couple

  8. Climate change and sustainable food production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Pete; Gregory, Peter J

    2013-02-01

    One of the greatest challenges we face in the twenty-first century is to sustainably feed nine to ten billion people by 2050 while at the same time reducing environmental impact (e.g. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, biodiversity loss, land use change and loss of ecosystem services). To this end, food security must be delivered. According to the United Nations definition, 'food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life'. At the same time as delivering food security, we must also reduce the environmental impact of food production. Future climate change will make an impact upon food production. On the other hand, agriculture contributes up to about 30% of the anthropogenic GHG emissions that drive climate change. The aim of this review is to outline some of the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture, the mitigation measures available within agriculture to reduce GHG emissions and outlines the very significant challenge of feeding nine to ten billion people sustainably under a future climate, with reduced emissions of GHG. Each challenge is in itself enormous, requiring solutions that co-deliver on all aspects. We conclude that the status quo is not an option, and tinkering with the current production systems is unlikely to deliver the food and ecosystems services we need in the future; radical changes in production and consumption are likely to be required over the coming decades.

  9. Climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinder, Robert W; Davidson, Eric A; Goodale, Christine L; Greaver, Tara L; Herrick, Jeffrey D; Liu, Lingli

    2012-05-15

    Fossil fuel combustion and fertilizer application in the United States have substantially altered the nitrogen cycle, with serious effects on climate change. The climate effects can be short-lived, by impacting the chemistry of the atmosphere, or long-lived, by altering ecosystem greenhouse gas fluxes. Here we develop a coherent framework for assessing the climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen emissions, including oxides of nitrogen, ammonia, and nitrous oxide (N(2)O). We use the global temperature potential (GTP), calculated at 20 and 100 y, in units of CO(2) equivalents (CO(2)e), as a common metric. The largest cooling effects are due to combustion sources of oxides of nitrogen altering tropospheric ozone and methane concentrations and enhancing carbon sequestration in forests. The combined cooling effects are estimated at -290 to -510 Tg CO(2)e on a GTP(20) basis. However, these effects are largely short-lived. On a GTP(100) basis, combustion contributes just -16 to -95 Tg CO(2)e. Agriculture contributes to warming on both the 20-y and 100-y timescales, primarily through N(2)O emissions from soils. Under current conditions, these warming and cooling effects partially offset each other. However, recent trends show decreasing emissions from combustion sources. To prevent warming from US reactive nitrogen, reductions in agricultural N(2)O emissions are needed. Substantial progress toward this goal is possible using current technology. Without such actions, even greater CO(2) emission reductions will be required to avoid dangerous climate change.

  10. Climate Change and Variability in Ghana: Stocktaking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix A. Asante

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a holistic literature review of climate change and variability in Ghana by examining the impact and projections of climate change and variability in various sectors (agricultural, health and energy and its implication on ecology, land use, poverty and welfare. The findings suggest that there is a projected high temperature and low rainfall in the years 2020, 2050 and 2080, and desertification is estimated to be proceeding at a rate of 20,000 hectares per annum. Sea-surface temperatures will increase in Ghana’s waters and this will have drastic effects on fishery. There will be a reduction in the suitability of weather within the current cocoa-growing areas in Ghana by 2050 and an increase evapotranspiration of the cocoa trees. Furthermore, rice and rooted crops (especially cassava production are expected to be low. Hydropower generation is also at risk and there will be an increase in the incidence rate of measles, diarrheal cases, guinea worm infestation, malaria, cholera, cerebro-spinal meningitis and other water related diseases due to the current climate projections and variability. These negative impacts of climate change and variability worsens the plight of the poor, who are mostly women and children.

  11. Making sense of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    Climate change has always occurred naturally but at a pace to which the earth has adapted well. Now, due to human activities like energy utilization and waste disposal, the earth is heating up much faster than earlier. Ecosystems, water resources, food sources, health, and human settlements are getting adversely affected. Floods and droughts are increasing, glaciers are melting, and disease is spreading. The problem is serious and it is time to act. Global consensus has been agreements; mitigation initiatives have been undertaken; hopes are up. The aim of this book is to raise the awareness of secondary school students about climate change and its impacts while enhancing their understanding of global responses. It includes a chapter specific to Indian conditions. Lucidly written and illustrated with anecdotes and visuals, this handbook will catalyse young minds into greater awareness, concern, and, hopefully, remedial action on this global threat

  12. Hurricane Katrina and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrara, Vincenzo

    2005-01-01

    Serious and widely reported scientific analyses and assessments have called attention to climate changes and to the additional risks the world now faces. Through science has not yet provided proof positive of a connection between the increased intensity of extreme weather events and climate change, there can be no valid reason for failing to hedge the risk with preventive action. The catastrophe that struck New Orleans had can been predicted since the 1990s. The 2050 Coast Plan for reducing the vulnerability of the Louisiana coast and preventing hurricane disasters had been approved by the local authorities but not the federal government. Partly because of its cost, it was never carried into effect [it

  13. Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation

    CERN Document Server

    Seiner, John; Suzuki, Toshio; Lackner, Maximilian

    2012-01-01

    There is a mounting consensus that human behavior is changing the global climate and its consequence could be catastrophic. Reducing the 24 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions from stationary and mobile sources is a gigantic task involving both technological challenges and monumental financial and societal costs. The pursuit of sustainable energy resources, environment, and economy has become a complex issue of global scale that affects the daily life of every citizen of the world. The present mitigation activities range from energy conservation, carbon-neutral energy conversions, carbon advanced combustion process that produce no greenhouse gases and that enable carbon capture and sequestion, to other advanced technologies. From its causes and impacts to its solutions, the issues surrounding climate change involve multidisciplinary science and technology. This handbook will provide a single source of this information. The book will be divided into the following sections: Scientific Evidence of Cl...

  14. Climatic change and security stakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ambrosi, Ph.; Hallegatte, St.

    2006-01-01

    This paper explores the relationships between climate change and security. Potential threats from climate change, as a unique source of stress or together with other factors, to human security are first examined. Some of the most explicit examples illustrate this section: food security, water availability, vulnerability to extreme events and vulnerability of small islands States and coastal zones. By questioning the basic needs of some populations or at least aggravating their precariousness, such risks to human security could also raise global security concerns, which we examine in turn, along four directions: rural exodus with an impoverishment of displaced populations, local conflicts for the use of natural resources, diplomatic tensions and international conflicts, and propagation to initially-unaffected regions through migratory flows. (authors)

  15. Climate change and forest resilience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MacQueen, Duncan; Vermeulen, Sonja

    2006-10-15

    Significant global climate change is inevitable. Tree species have a limited capacity to tolerate climate change or migrate through natural or artificial means. We do not know enough about the comparative resilience of forest-based, agricultural, marine or fresh water ecosystems. But it is clear that biodiverse forest ecosystems are under threat. And the threat extends beyond forests themselves. An estimated 60 million indigenous people are heavily dependent on the world's rainforests. Some 350 million people live in or close to dense forests and rely on them for subsistence or income. A further 1.2 billion people in developing countries depend on trees on farm to generate food or cash.

  16. Climate change and health--what's the problem?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anstey, Matthew H R

    2013-02-09

    The scientific consensus is that global warming is occurring and is largely the result of greenhouse gas emissions from human activity. This paper examines the health implications of global warming, the current socio-political attitudes towards action on climate change and highlight the health co-benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, policy development for climate change and health should embrace health systems strengthening, commencing by incorporating climate change targets into Millennium Development Goal 7.

  17. Climate change and health – what’s the problem?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    The scientific consensus is that global warming is occurring and is largely the result of greenhouse gas emissions from human activity. This paper examines the health implications of global warming, the current socio-political attitudes towards action on climate change and highlight the health co-benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, policy development for climate change and health should embrace health systems strengthening, commencing by incorporating climate change targets into Millennium Development Goal 7. PMID:23394373

  18. Consumption, Happiness, and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Cohen, Mark A.; Vandenbergh, Michael P.

    2008-01-01

    In this article, we explore the implications of this literature for understanding the relationship between climate change policies and consumption. We identify a number of ways in which accounting for the implications of the new happiness literature could lead to laws and policies that influence consumption in ways that increase the prospects for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in developed and developing countries. We do not examine every nuance of the growing happiness literature, but we ...

  19. Climate Change and Individual Duties

    OpenAIRE

    Augustin Fragnière

    2016-01-01

    Tackling climate change has often been considered the responsibility of national governments. But do individuals also have a duty to act in the face of this problem? In particular do they have a duty to adopt a greener lifestyle or to press their government to act? This review critically examines the arguments provided for and against such duties in the relevant philosophic literature. It first discusses the problem of causal inefficacy—namely the fact that individual greenhouse gas emissions...

  20. Poverty Traps and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Tol, Richard S. J.

    2011-01-01

    PUBLISHED We use a demo-economic model to examine the question of whether climate change could widen or deepen poverty traps. The model includes two crucial mechanisms. Parents are risk averse when deciding how many children to have; fertility is high when infant survival is low. High fertility spreads scarce household resources thin, resulting in children being poorly educated. At the macro level, technological progress is slow because of decreasing returns to scale in agriculture. With h...