WorldWideScience

Sample records for circulation models validation

  1. Seasonal overturning circulation in the Red Sea: 1. Model validation and summer circulation

    KAUST Repository

    Yao, Fengchao

    2014-04-01

    The overturning circulation in the Red Sea exhibits a distinct seasonally reversing pattern and is studied using high-resolution MIT general circulation model simulations. In the first part of this study, the vertical and horizontal structure of the summer overturning circulation and its dynamical mechanisms are presented from the model results. The seasonal water exchange in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb is successfully simulated, and the structures of the intruding subsurface Gulf of Aden intermediate water are in good agreement with summer observations in 2011. The model results suggest that the summer overturning circulation is driven by the combined effect of the shoaling of the thermocline in the Gulf of Aden resulting from remote winds in the Arabian Sea and an upward surface slope from the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden set up by local surface winds in the Red Sea. In addition, during late summer two processes associated, respectively, with latitudinally differential heating and increased salinity in the southern Red Sea act together to cause the reversal of the contrast of the vertical density structure and the cessation of the summer overturning circulation. Dynamically, the subsurface northward pressure gradient force is mainly balanced by vertical viscosity resulting from the vertical shear and boundary friction in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb. Unlike some previous studies, the three-layer summer exchange flows in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb do not appear to be hydraulically controlled.

  2. Impulse-response function of splanchnic circulation with model-independent constraints: theory and experimental validation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munk, O L; Keiding, S; Bass, L

    2003-01-01

    Modeling physiological processes using tracer kinetic methods requires knowledge of the time course of the tracer concentration in blood supplying the organ. For liver studies, however, inaccessibility of the portal vein makes direct measurement of the hepatic dual-input function impossible in hu...

  3. Ocean General Circulation Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho; Ma, Po-Lun

    2012-09-30

    1. Definition of Subject The purpose of this text is to provide an introduction to aspects of oceanic general circulation models (OGCMs), an important component of Climate System or Earth System Model (ESM). The role of the ocean in ESMs is described in Chapter XX (EDITOR: PLEASE FIND THE COUPLED CLIMATE or EARTH SYSTEM MODELING CHAPTERS). The emerging need for understanding the Earth’s climate system and especially projecting its future evolution has encouraged scientists to explore the dynamical, physical, and biogeochemical processes in the ocean. Understanding the role of these processes in the climate system is an interesting and challenging scientific subject. For example, a research question how much extra heat or CO2 generated by anthropogenic activities can be stored in the deep ocean is not only scientifically interesting but also important in projecting future climate of the earth. Thus, OGCMs have been developed and applied to investigate the various oceanic processes and their role in the climate system.

  4. Validation of SSC using the FFTF natural-circulation tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horak, W.C.; Guppy, J.G.; Kennett, R.J.

    1982-01-01

    As part of the Super System Code (SSC) validation program, the 100% power FFTF natural circulation test has been simulated using SSC. A detailed 19 channel, 2 loop model was used in SSC. Comparisons showed SSC calculations to be in good agreement with the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF), test data. Simulation of the test was obtained in real time

  5. A study of longwave radiation codes for climate studies: Validation with ARM observations and tests in general circulation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellingson, R.G.; Baer, F.

    1993-01-01

    This report summarizes the activities of our group to meet our stated objectives. The report is divided into sections entitled: Radiation Model Testing Activities, General Circulation Model Testing Activities, Science Team Activities, and Publications, Presentations and Meetings. The section on Science Team Activities summarizes our participation with the science team to further advance the observation and modeling programs. Appendix A lists graduate students supported, and post-doctoral appointments during the project. Reports on the activities during each of the first two years are included as Appendix B. Significant progress has been made in: determining the ability of line-by-line radiation models to calculate the downward longwave flux at the surface; determining the uncertainties in calculated the downwelling radiance and flux at the surface associated with the use of different proposed profiling techniques; intercomparing clear-sky radiance and flux observations with calculations from radiation codes from different climate models; determining the uncertainties associated with estimating N* from surface longwave flux observations; and determining the sensitivity of model calculations to different formulations of the effects of finite sized clouds

  6. A Study of Longwave Radiation Codes for Climate Studies: Validation with ARM Observations and Tests in General Circulation Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert G. Ellingson

    2004-09-28

    One specific goal of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) program is to improve the treatment of radiative transfer in General Circulation Models (GCMs) under clear-sky, general overcast and broken cloud conditions. Our project was geared to contribute to this goal by attacking major problems associated with one of the dominant radiation components of the problem --longwave radiation. The primary long-term project objectives were to: (1) develop an optimum longwave radiation model for use in GCMs that has been calibrated with state-of-the-art observations for clear and cloudy conditions, and (2) determine how the longwave radiative forcing with an improved algorithm contributes relatively in a GCM when compared to shortwave radiative forcing, sensible heating, thermal advection and convection. The approach has been to build upon existing models in an iterative, predictive fashion. We focused on comparing calculations from a set of models with operationally observed data for clear, overcast and broken cloud conditions. The differences found through the comparisons and physical insights have been used to develop new models, most of which have been tested with new data. Our initial GCM studies used existing GCMs to study the climate model-radiation sensitivity problem. Although this portion of our initial plans was curtailed midway through the project, we anticipate that the eventual outcome of this approach will provide both a better longwave radiative forcing algorithm and from our better understanding of how longwave radiative forcing influences the model equilibrium climate, how improvements in climate prediction using this algorithm can be achieved.

  7. An ocean circulation model in σS- z- σB hybrid coordinate and its validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Zhanpeng; Yuan, Yeli; Yang, Guangbing

    2018-02-01

    A 3D, two-time-level, σS- z- σB hybrid-coordinate Marine Science and Numerical Modeling numerical ocean circulation model (HyMOM) is developed in this paper. In HyMOM, the σ coordinate is employed in the surface and bottom regions, and the z coordinate is used in the intermediate layers. This method can overcome problems with vanishing surface cells and minimize the unwanted deviation in representing bottom topography. The connection between the σ and z layers vertically includes an expanded "ghost" method and the linear interpolation. The governing equations in the σS- z- σB hybrid coordinate based on the complete Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations are derived in detail. The two-level time staggered and Eulerian forward and backward schemes, which are of second-order of accuracy, are adopted for the temporal difference in internal and external mode, respectively. The computation of the baroclinic gradient force is tested in an analytic test problem; the errors for two methods in HyMOM, which are relatively large only in the bottom layers, are obviously smaller than those in the pure σ and z models in almost all of the vertical layers. A quasi-global climatologic numerical experiment is constructed to test the simulation performance of HyMOM. With the monthly mean Levitus climatology data as reference, the HyMOM can improve the simulating accuracy compared with its pure z or σ coordinate implementation.

  8. Modeling biomass gasification in circulating fluidized beds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, Qi

    In this thesis, the modeling of biomass gasification in circulating fluidized beds was studied. The hydrodynamics of a circulating fluidized bed operating on biomass particles were first investigated, both experimentally and numerically. Then a comprehensive mathematical model was presented to predict the overall performance of a 1.2 MWe biomass gasification and power generation plant. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to test its response to several gasifier operating conditions. The model was validated using the experimental results obtained from the plant and two other circulating fluidized bed biomass gasifiers (CFBBGs). Finally, an ASPEN PLUS simulation model of biomass gasification was presented based on minimization of the Gibbs free energy of the reaction system at chemical equilibrium. Hydrodynamics plays a crucial role in defining the performance of gas-solid circulating fluidized beds (CFBs). A 2-dimensional mathematical model was developed considering the hydrodynamic behavior of CFB gasifiers. In the modeling, the CFB riser was divided into two regions: a dense region at the bottom and a dilute region at the top of the riser. Kunii and Levenspiel (1991)'s model was adopted to express the vertical solids distribution with some other assumptions. Radial distributions of bed voidage were taken into account in the upper zone by using Zhang et al. (1991)'s correlation. For model validation purposes, a cold model CFB was employed, in which sawdust was transported with air as the fluidizing agent. A comprehensive mathematical model was developed to predict the overall performance of a 1.2 MWe biomass gasification and power generation demonstration plant in China. Hydrodynamics as well as chemical reaction kinetics were considered. The fluidized bed riser was divided into two distinct sections: (a) a dense region at the bottom of the bed where biomass undergoes mainly heterogeneous reactions and (b) a dilute region at the top where most of homogeneous

  9. A blood circulation model for reference man

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leggett, R.W.; Eckerman, K.F.; Williams, L.R.

    1996-01-01

    A dynamic blood circulation model that predicts the movement and gradual dispersion of a bolus of material in the circulation after its intravenous injection into an adult human. The main purpose of the model is improve the dosimetry of internally deposited radionuclides that decay in the circulation to a significant extent. The model partitions the blood volume into 24 separate organs or tissues, right heart chamber, left heart chamber, pulmonary circulation, arterial outflow to the aorta and large arteries, and venous return via the large veins. Model results were compared to data obtained from injection of carbon 11 labeled carbon monoxide or rubidium 86

  10. A blood circulation model for reference man

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leggett, R.W.; Eckerman, K.F. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Williams, L.R. [Indiana Univ., South Bend, IN (United States). Div. of Liberal Arts and Sciences

    1996-12-31

    A dynamic blood circulation model that predicts the movement and gradual dispersion of a bolus of material in the circulation after its intravenous injection into an adult human. The main purpose of the model is improve the dosimetry of internally deposited radionuclides that decay in the circulation to a significant extent. The model partitions the blood volume into 24 separate organs or tissues, right heart chamber, left heart chamber, pulmonary circulation, arterial outflow to the aorta and large arteries, and venous return via the large veins. Model results were compared to data obtained from injection of carbon 11 labeled carbon monoxide or rubidium 86.

  11. EOP MIT General Circulation Model (MITgcm)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data contains a regional implementation of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) at a 1-km spatial resolution for the...

  12. Global Solution of Atmospheric Circulation Models with Humidity Effect

    OpenAIRE

    Luo, Hong

    2014-01-01

    The atmospheric circulation models are deduced from the very complex atmospheric circulation models based on the actual background and meteorological data. The models are able to show features of atmospheric circulation and are easy to be studied. It is proved that existence of global solutions to atmospheric circulation models with the use of the $T$-weakly continuous operator.

  13. Model Validation Status Review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    E.L. Hardin

    2001-01-01

    The primary objective for the Model Validation Status Review was to perform a one-time evaluation of model validation associated with the analysis/model reports (AMRs) containing model input to total-system performance assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain site recommendation (SR). This review was performed in response to Corrective Action Request BSC-01-C-01 (Clark 2001, Krisha 2001) pursuant to Quality Assurance review findings of an adverse trend in model validation deficiency. The review findings in this report provide the following information which defines the extent of model validation deficiency and the corrective action needed: (1) AMRs that contain or support models are identified, and conversely, for each model the supporting documentation is identified. (2) The use for each model is determined based on whether the output is used directly for TSPA-SR, or for screening (exclusion) of features, events, and processes (FEPs), and the nature of the model output. (3) Two approaches are used to evaluate the extent to which the validation for each model is compliant with AP-3.10Q (Analyses and Models). The approaches differ in regard to whether model validation is achieved within individual AMRs as originally intended, or whether model validation could be readily achieved by incorporating information from other sources. (4) Recommendations are presented for changes to the AMRs, and additional model development activities or data collection, that will remedy model validation review findings, in support of licensing activities. The Model Validation Status Review emphasized those AMRs that support TSPA-SR (CRWMS M and O 2000bl and 2000bm). A series of workshops and teleconferences was held to discuss and integrate the review findings. The review encompassed 125 AMRs (Table 1) plus certain other supporting documents and data needed to assess model validity. The AMRs were grouped in 21 model areas representing the modeling of processes affecting the natural and

  14. Model Validation Status Review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    E.L. Hardin

    2001-11-28

    The primary objective for the Model Validation Status Review was to perform a one-time evaluation of model validation associated with the analysis/model reports (AMRs) containing model input to total-system performance assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain site recommendation (SR). This review was performed in response to Corrective Action Request BSC-01-C-01 (Clark 2001, Krisha 2001) pursuant to Quality Assurance review findings of an adverse trend in model validation deficiency. The review findings in this report provide the following information which defines the extent of model validation deficiency and the corrective action needed: (1) AMRs that contain or support models are identified, and conversely, for each model the supporting documentation is identified. (2) The use for each model is determined based on whether the output is used directly for TSPA-SR, or for screening (exclusion) of features, events, and processes (FEPs), and the nature of the model output. (3) Two approaches are used to evaluate the extent to which the validation for each model is compliant with AP-3.10Q (Analyses and Models). The approaches differ in regard to whether model validation is achieved within individual AMRs as originally intended, or whether model validation could be readily achieved by incorporating information from other sources. (4) Recommendations are presented for changes to the AMRs, and additional model development activities or data collection, that will remedy model validation review findings, in support of licensing activities. The Model Validation Status Review emphasized those AMRs that support TSPA-SR (CRWMS M&O 2000bl and 2000bm). A series of workshops and teleconferences was held to discuss and integrate the review findings. The review encompassed 125 AMRs (Table 1) plus certain other supporting documents and data needed to assess model validity. The AMRs were grouped in 21 model areas representing the modeling of processes affecting the natural and

  15. Application of Improved Radiation Modeling to General Circulation Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michael J Iacono

    2011-04-07

    This research has accomplished its primary objectives of developing accurate and efficient radiation codes, validating them with measurements and higher resolution models, and providing these advancements to the global modeling community to enhance the treatment of cloud and radiative processes in weather and climate prediction models. A critical component of this research has been the development of the longwave and shortwave broadband radiative transfer code for general circulation model (GCM) applications, RRTMG, which is based on the single-column reference code, RRTM, also developed at AER. RRTMG is a rigorously tested radiation model that retains a considerable level of accuracy relative to higher resolution models and measurements despite the performance enhancements that have made it possible to apply this radiation code successfully to global dynamical models. This model includes the radiative effects of all significant atmospheric gases, and it treats the absorption and scattering from liquid and ice clouds and aerosols. RRTMG also includes a statistical technique for representing small-scale cloud variability, such as cloud fraction and the vertical overlap of clouds, which has been shown to improve cloud radiative forcing in global models. This development approach has provided a direct link from observations to the enhanced radiative transfer provided by RRTMG for application to GCMs. Recent comparison of existing climate model radiation codes with high resolution models has documented the improved radiative forcing capability provided by RRTMG, especially at the surface, relative to other GCM radiation models. Due to its high accuracy, its connection to observations, and its computational efficiency, RRTMG has been implemented operationally in many national and international dynamical models to provide validated radiative transfer for improving weather forecasts and enhancing the prediction of global climate change.

  16. Validation of simulation models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rehman, Muniza; Pedersen, Stig Andur

    2012-01-01

    In philosophy of science, the interest for computational models and simulations has increased heavily during the past decades. Different positions regarding the validity of models have emerged but the views have not succeeded in capturing the diversity of validation methods. The wide variety...

  17. HEDR model validation plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Napier, B.A.; Gilbert, R.O.; Simpson, J.C.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.; Thiede, M.E.; Walters, W.H.

    1993-06-01

    The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project has developed a set of computational ''tools'' for estimating the possible radiation dose that individuals may have received from past Hanford Site operations. This document describes the planned activities to ''validate'' these tools. In the sense of the HEDR Project, ''validation'' is a process carried out by comparing computational model predictions with field observations and experimental measurements that are independent of those used to develop the model

  18. Validated dynamic flow model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Torben

    2011-01-01

    model structure suggested by University of Lund the WP4 leader. This particular model structure has the advantages that it fits better into the control design frame work used by WP3-4 compared to the model structures previously developed in WP2. The different model structures are first summarised....... Then issues dealing with optimal experimental design is considered. Finally the parameters are estimated in the chosen static and dynamic models and a validation is performed. Two of the static models, one of them the additive model, explains the data well. In case of dynamic models the suggested additive...

  19. Circulating fluidized bed boiler numerical modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Di Maggio, T. [Electricite de France, 75 - Paris (France). Direction des Etudes et Recherches; Bursi, J.M.; Lafanechere, L.; Jestin, L. [Electricite de France (EDF), 69 - Villeurbanne (France); Roulet, V. [E.D.F./DE/CNET, 92 - La Defense (France)

    1996-12-31

    Electricite de France (EdF) is actively involved in the development of CFB power plants. Thanks to a wide Research and Development program around the 125 MWe Emile Huchet and the 250 MWe Provence units (two boilers designed by Stein-Lurgi), EdF has been able to get a good knowledge of hydrodynamics and heat transfer in the circulating loop as well as the back pass. One of the main objectives of the R and D program was to gather this information and results in a steady state operating model of a CFB boiler and to simulate the operation of the 250 MWe Provence power plant. This model has been developed before the first ignition of the Provence power plant in order to check the design and to help on-field engineers during the start-up phase. Furthermore, this model allows R and D engineers to make parametric studies and to evaluate new designs. (authors) 5 refs.

  20. Climatology of the HOPE-G global ocean general circulation model - Sea ice general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Legutke, S. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Maier-Reimer, E. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

    1999-12-01

    The HOPE-G global ocean general circulation model (OGCM) climatology, obtained in a long-term forced integration is described. HOPE-G is a primitive-equation z-level ocean model which contains a dynamic-thermodynamic sea-ice model. It is formulated on a 2.8 grid with increased resolution in low latitudes in order to better resolve equatorial dynamics. The vertical resolution is 20 layers. The purpose of the integration was both to investigate the models ability to reproduce the observed general circulation of the world ocean and to obtain an initial state for coupled atmosphere - ocean - sea-ice climate simulations. The model was driven with daily mean data of a 15-year integration of the atmosphere general circulation model ECHAM4, the atmospheric component in later coupled runs. Thereby, a maximum of the flux variability that is expected to appear in coupled simulations is included already in the ocean spin-up experiment described here. The model was run for more than 2000 years until a quasi-steady state was achieved. It reproduces the major current systems and the main features of the so-called conveyor belt circulation. The observed distribution of water masses is reproduced reasonably well, although with a saline bias in the intermediate water masses and a warm bias in the deep and bottom water of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. The model underestimates the meridional transport of heat in the Atlantic Ocean. The simulated heat transport in the other basins, though, is in good agreement with observations. (orig.)

  1. The epistemological status of general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loehle, Craig

    2017-05-01

    Forecasts of both likely anthropogenic effects on climate and consequent effects on nature and society are based on large, complex software tools called general circulation models (GCMs). Forecasts generated by GCMs have been used extensively in policy decisions related to climate change. However, the relation between underlying physical theories and results produced by GCMs is unclear. In the case of GCMs, many discretizations and approximations are made, and simulating Earth system processes is far from simple and currently leads to some results with unknown energy balance implications. Statistical testing of GCM forecasts for degree of agreement with data would facilitate assessment of fitness for use. If model results need to be put on an anomaly basis due to model bias, then both visual and quantitative measures of model fit depend strongly on the reference period used for normalization, making testing problematic. Epistemology is here applied to problems of statistical inference during testing, the relationship between the underlying physics and the models, the epistemic meaning of ensemble statistics, problems of spatial and temporal scale, the existence or not of an unforced null for climate fluctuations, the meaning of existing uncertainty estimates, and other issues. Rigorous reasoning entails carefully quantifying levels of uncertainty.

  2. The epistemological status of general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loehle, Craig

    2018-03-01

    Forecasts of both likely anthropogenic effects on climate and consequent effects on nature and society are based on large, complex software tools called general circulation models (GCMs). Forecasts generated by GCMs have been used extensively in policy decisions related to climate change. However, the relation between underlying physical theories and results produced by GCMs is unclear. In the case of GCMs, many discretizations and approximations are made, and simulating Earth system processes is far from simple and currently leads to some results with unknown energy balance implications. Statistical testing of GCM forecasts for degree of agreement with data would facilitate assessment of fitness for use. If model results need to be put on an anomaly basis due to model bias, then both visual and quantitative measures of model fit depend strongly on the reference period used for normalization, making testing problematic. Epistemology is here applied to problems of statistical inference during testing, the relationship between the underlying physics and the models, the epistemic meaning of ensemble statistics, problems of spatial and temporal scale, the existence or not of an unforced null for climate fluctuations, the meaning of existing uncertainty estimates, and other issues. Rigorous reasoning entails carefully quantifying levels of uncertainty.

  3. Ocean circulation modeling by use of radar altimeter data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olbers, Dirk; Alpers, W.; Hasselmann, K.; Maier-Reimer, E.; Kase, R.; Krauss, W.; Siedler, G.; Willebrand, J.; Zahel, W.

    1991-01-01

    The project will investigate the use of radar altimetry (RA) data in the determination of the ocean circulation models. RA data will be used to verify prognostic experiments of the steady state and seasonal cycle of large-scale circulation models and the statistical steady state of eddy-resolving models. The data will serve as initial and update conditions in data assimilation experiments and as constraints in inverse calculations. The aim of the project is a better understanding of ocean physics, the determination and mapping of ocean currents, and a contribution to the establishment of ocean circulation models for climate studies. The goal of the project is to use satellite radar altimetry data for improving our knowledge of ocean circulation both in a descriptive sense and through the physics that govern the circulation state. The basic tool is a series of ocean circulation models. Depending on the model, different techniques will be applied to incorporate the RA data.

  4. Modeling the Middle Jurassic ocean circulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maura Brunetti

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available We present coupled ocean–sea-ice simulations of the Middle Jurassic (∼165 Ma when Laurasia and Gondwana began drifting apart and gave rise to the formation of the Atlantic Ocean. Since the opening of the Proto-Caribbean is not well constrained by geological records, configurations with and without an open connection between the Proto-Caribbean and Panthalassa are examined. We use a sea-floor bathymetry obtained by a recently developed three-dimensional (3D elevation model which compiles geological, palaeogeographical and geophysical data. Our original approach consists in coupling this elevation model, which is based on detailed reconstructions of oceanic realms, with a dynamical ocean circulation model. We find that the Middle Jurassic bathymetry of the Central Atlantic and Proto-Caribbean seaway only allows for a weak current of the order of 2 Sv in the upper 1000 m even if the system is open to the west. The effect of closing the western boundary of the Proto-Caribbean is to increase the transport related to barotropic gyres in the southern hemisphere and to change water properties, such as salinity, in the Neo-Tethys. Weak upwelling rates are found in the nascent Atlantic Ocean in the presence of this superficial current and we discuss their compatibility with deep-sea sedimentological records in this region.

  5. COMPUTATIONAL MODELING OF CIRCULATING FLUIDIZED BED REACTORS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibrahim, Essam A

    2013-01-09

    Details of numerical simulations of two-phase gas-solid turbulent flow in the riser section of Circulating Fluidized Bed Reactor (CFBR) using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) technique are reported. Two CFBR riser configurations are considered and modeled. Each of these two riser models consist of inlet, exit, connecting elbows and a main pipe. Both riser configurations are cylindrical and have the same diameter but differ in their inlet lengths and main pipe height to enable investigation of riser geometrical scaling effects. In addition, two types of solid particles are exploited in the solid phase of the two-phase gas-solid riser flow simulations to study the influence of solid loading ratio on flow patterns. The gaseous phase in the two-phase flow is represented by standard atmospheric air. The CFD-based FLUENT software is employed to obtain steady state and transient solutions for flow modulations in the riser. The physical dimensions, types and numbers of computation meshes, and solution methodology utilized in the present work are stated. Flow parameters, such as static and dynamic pressure, species velocity, and volume fractions are monitored and analyzed. The differences in the computational results between the two models, under steady and transient conditions, are compared, contrasted, and discussed.

  6. NAO-ocean circulation interactions in a coupled general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bellucci, A. [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna (Italy); Gualdi, S.; Navarra, A. [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Scoccimarro, E. [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

    2008-12-15

    The interplay between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the large scale ocean circulation is inspected in a twentieth century simulation conducted with a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model. Significant lead-lag covariance between oceanic and tropospheric variables suggests that the system supports a damped oscillatory mode involving an active ocean-atmosphere coupling, with a typical NAO-like space structure and a 5 years timescale, qualitatively consistent with a mid-latitude delayed oscillator paradigm. The two essential processes governing the oscillation are (1) a negative feedback between ocean gyre circulation and the high latitude SST meridional gradient and (2) a positive feedback between SST and the NAO. The atmospheric NAO pattern appears to have a weaker projection on the ocean meridional overturning, compared to the gyre circulation, which leads to a secondary role for the thermohaline circulation in driving the meridional heat transport, and thus the oscillatory mode. (orig.)

  7. [Treatment of cloud radiative effects in general circulation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, W.C.

    1993-01-01

    This is a renewal proposal for an on-going project of the Department of Energy (DOE)/Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program. The objective of the ARM Program is to improve the treatment of radiation-cloud in GCMs so that reliable predictions of the timing and magnitude of greenhouse gas-induced global warming and regional responses can be made. The ARM Program supports two research areas: (I) The modeling and analysis of data related to the parameterization of clouds and radiation in general circulation models (GCMs); and (II) the development of advanced instrumentation for both mapping the three-dimensional structure of the atmosphere and high accuracy/precision radiometric observations. The present project conducts research in area (I) and focuses on GCM treatment of cloud life cycle, optical properties, and vertical overlapping. The project has two tasks: (1) Development and Refinement of GCM Radiation-Cloud Treatment Using ARM Data; and (2) Validation of GCM Radiation-Cloud Treatment

  8. Conceptual models of the wind-driven and thermohaline circulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drijfhout, S.S.; Marshall, D.P.; Dijkstra, H.A.

    2013-01-01

    Conceptual models are a vital tool for understanding the processes that maintain the global ocean circulation, both in nature and in complex numerical ocean models. In this chapter we provide a broad overview of our conceptual understanding of the wind-driven circulation, the thermohaline

  9. BIM-Enabled Conceptual Modelling and Representation of Building Circulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Kook Lee

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes how a building information modelling (BIM-based approach for building circulation enables us to change the process of building design in terms of its computational representation and processes, focusing on the conceptual modelling and representation of circulation within buildings. BIM has been designed for use by several BIM authoring tools, in particular with the widely known interoperable industry foundation classes (IFCs, which follow an object-oriented data modelling methodology. Advances in BIM authoring tools, using space objects and their relations defined in an IFC's schema, have made it possible to model, visualize and analyse circulation within buildings prior to their construction. Agent-based circulation has long been an interdisciplinary topic of research across several areas, including design computing, computer science, architectural morphology, human behaviour and environmental psychology. Such conventional approaches to building circulation are centred on navigational knowledge about built environments, and represent specific circulation paths and regulations. This paper, however, places emphasis on the use of ‘space objects’ in BIM-enabled design processes rather than on circulation agents, the latter of which are not defined in the IFCs' schemas. By introducing and reviewing some associated research and projects, this paper also surveys how such a circulation representation is applicable to the analysis of building circulation-related rules.

  10. Strengthening of the Walker circulation under globalwarming in an aqua-planet general circulation model simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tim; Zhang, Lei; Murakami, Hiroyuki

    2015-11-01

    Most climate models project a weakening of theWalker circulation under global warming scenarios. It is argued, based on a global averaged moisture budget, that this weakening can be attributed to a slower rate of rainfall increase compared to that of moisture increase, which leads to a decrease in ascending motion. Through an idealized aqua-planet simulation in which a zonal wavenumber-1 SST distribution is prescribed along the equator, we find that the Walker circulation is strengthened under a uniform 2-K SST warming, even though the global mean rainfall-moisture relationship remains the same. Further diagnosis shows that the ascending branch of the Walker cell is enhanced in the upper troposphere but weakened in the lower troposphere. As a result, a "double-cell" circulation change pattern with a clockwise (anti-clockwise) circulation anomaly in the upper (lower) troposphere forms, and the upper tropospheric circulation change dominates. The mechanism for the formation of the "double cell" circulation pattern is attributed to a larger (smaller) rate of increase of diabatic heating than static stability in the upper (lower) troposphere. The result indicates that the future change of the Walker circulation cannot simply be interpreted based on a global mean moisture budget argument.

  11. An elementary model of money circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokrovskii, Vladimir N.; Schinckus, Christophe

    2016-12-01

    This paper investigates money circulation for a system, consisting of a production system, the government, a central bank, commercial banks and many customers of the commercial banks. A set of equations for the system is written; the theory determines the main features of interaction between production and money circulation. Investigation of the equations in a steady-state situation reveals some relationship among output of the production system and monetary variables. The relation of quantity theory of money is confirmed, whereas a new concept of the efficiency of the system is introduced.

  12. Modelling seasonal circulation and thermohaline structure of the Caspian Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Gunduz

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The wind- and buoyancy-driven seasonal circulation of the Caspian Sea is investigated for a better understanding of its basin-wide and mesoscale dynamics, mixing and transport. The model successfully reproduces the following basic elements of the circulation: the southward-flowing current systems along the eastern and western coasts, the upwelling along the eastern coast, the cyclonic circulation in the Middle Caspian Sea (MCS, especially in winter, and the cyclonic and anticyclonic cells of circulation in the South Caspian Sea (SCS. The observed seasonal variability of sea level and sea surface temperature (SST is well reproduced. Mesoscale structures, not always evident from hydrographic observations, are identified.

  13. The stability of the thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schiller, A. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Mikolajewicz, U. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Voss, R. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany)

    1996-02-01

    The stability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation against meltwater input is investigated in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. The meltwater input to the Labrador Sea is increased linearly for 250 years to a maximum input of 0.625 Sv and then reduced again to 0 (both instantaneously and slowly decreasing over 250 years). The resulting freshening forces a shutdown of the formation of North Atlantic deepwater and a subsequent reversal of the thermohaline circulation of the Atlantic, filling the deep Atlantic with Antarctic bottom water. The change in the overturning pattern causes a drastic reduction of the Atlantic northward heat transport, resulting in a strong cooling with maximum amplitude over the northern North Atlantic and a southward shift of the sea-ice margin in the Atlantic. Due to the increased meridional temperature gradient, the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone is displaced southward and the westerlies in the northern hemisphere gain strength. We identify four main feedbacks affecting the stability of the thermohaline circulation: the change in the overturning circulation of the Atlantic leads to longer residence times of the surface waters in high northern latitudes, which allows them to accumulate more precipitation and runoff from the continents, which results in an increased stability in the North Atlantic.

  14. Integrating Magnetic and Modelling Approaches to Reconstruct Ocean Circulation at the LGM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watkins, S.; Maher, B.; Bigg, G.

    2008-12-01

    Formation of N. Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) is an important component of the ocean thermohaline circulation but debate exists over the ocean circulation state during glacial stages. Some geological and modelling studies suggest decreased NADW and increased formation of Southern Ocean deep water during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM); others indicate similar, or higher, rates of NADW advection. Here, we use an innovative, integrated approach combining ocean and general circulation model results with ground- truthing measurements of sediment magnetic properties, in order to test two different potential LGM ocean states. We compare modelled iceberg trajectories produced by each of the stable modeled ocean states with magnetically-mapped patterns and sources of LGM ice-rafted debris (IRD). One LGM state is characterised by vigorous NADW formation; the other by dominant deep water production in the Southern Ocean. Cluster analysis of sediment magnetic properties was used to characterise N. Atlantic IRD patterns and sources, which match most closely iceberg trajectories arising from some combination of the 'southern-sinking' and 'intermediate' ocean circulation states. The magnetic data indicate two major IRD sources, Fennoscandia and Greenland/Iceland, and one minor source, the St Lawrence region. The model and magnetic data suggest that the LGM N. Atlantic circulation was dominated by a cyclonic central N. Atlantic gyre, separated from the N. Atlantic Current which was displaced south of ~ 42 oN. This approach can provide discriminatory evidence and validation of past ocean circulation states, on an ocean-wide and non-sample destructive basis.

  15. Modelling the Seasonal Overturning Circulation in the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Yao, Fengchao

    2015-04-01

    The overturning circulation in the Red Sea exhibits a distinct seasonally reversing pattern and is studied using 50-year, high-resolution MIT general circulation model simulations. The seasonal water exchange in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb is successfully simulated, and the structures of the intruding subsurface Gulf of Aden intermediate water are in good agreement with summer observations in 2011. The model results suggest that the summer overturning circulation is driven by the combined effect of the shoaling of the thermocline in the Gulf of Aden resulting from remote winds in the Arabian Sea and an upward surface slope from the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden set up by local surface winds in the Red Sea. For the winter overturning circulation, the climatological model mean results suggest that the surface inflow intensifies in a western boundary current in the southern Red Sea that switches to an eastern boundary current north of 24°N. The overturning is accomplished through a cyclonic recirculation and a cross-basin overturning circulation in the northern Red Sea, with major sinking occurring along a narrow band of width about 20 km along the eastern boundary and weaker upwelling along the western boundary. The northward pressure gradient force, strong vertical mixing, and horizontal mixing near the boundary are the essential dynamical components in the model\\'s winter overturning circulation.

  16. Validating Animal Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Atanasova

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, I respond to the challenge raised against contemporary experimental neurobiology according to which the field is in a state of crisis because of the multiple experimental protocols employed in different laboratories and strengthening their reliability that presumably preclude the validity of neurobiological knowledge. I provide an alternative account of experimentation in neurobiology which makes sense of its experimental practices. I argue that maintaining a multiplicity of experimental protocols and strengthening their reliability are well justified and they foster rather than preclude the validity of neurobiological knowledge. Thus, their presence indicates thriving rather than crisis of experimental neurobiology.

  17. Natural Circulation Phenomena and Modelling for Advanced Water Cooled Reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-03-01

    The role of natural circulation in advanced water cooled reactor design has been extended with the adoption of passive safety systems. Some designs utilize natural circulation to remove core heat during normal operation. Most passive safety systems used in evolutionary and innovative water cooled reactor designs are driven by natural circulation. The use of passive systems based on natural circulation can eliminate the costs associated with the installation, maintenance and operation of active systems that require multiple pumps with independent and redundant electric power supplies. However, considering the weak driving forces of passive systems based on natural circulation, careful design and analysis methods must be employed to ensure that the systems perform their intended functions. Several IAEA Member States with advanced reactor development programmes are actively conducting investigations of natural circulation to support the development of advanced water cooled reactor designs with passive safety systems. To foster international collaboration on the enabling technology of passive systems that utilize natural circulation, in 2004 the IAEA initiated a coordinated research project (CRP) on Natural Circulation Phenomena, Modelling and Reliability of Passive Systems that Utilize Natural Circulation. Three reports were published within the framework of this CRP. The first report (IAEA-TECDOC-1474) contains the material developed for the first IAEA training course on natural circulation in water cooled nuclear power plants. The second report (IAEA-TECDOC-1624) describes passive safety systems in a wide range of advanced water cooled nuclear power plant designs, with the goal of gaining insights into system design, operation and reliability. This third, and last, report summarizes the research studies completed by participating institutes during the CRP period.

  18. Regional climates in the GISS general circulation model: Surface air temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewitson, Bruce

    1994-01-01

    One of the more viable research techniques into global climate change for the purpose of understanding the consequent environmental impacts is based on the use of general circulation models (GCMs). However, GCMs are currently unable to reliably predict the regional climate change resulting from global warming, and it is at the regional scale that predictions are required for understanding human and environmental responses. Regional climates in the extratropics are in large part governed by the synoptic-scale circulation and the feasibility of using this interscale relationship is explored to provide a way of moving to grid cell and sub-grid cell scales in the model. The relationships between the daily circulation systems and surface air temperature for points across the continental United States are first developed in a quantitative form using a multivariate index based on principal components analysis (PCA) of the surface circulation. These relationships are then validated by predicting daily temperature using observed circulation and comparing the predicted values with the observed temperatures. The relationships predict surface temperature accurately over the major portion of the country in winter, and for half the country in summer. These relationships are then applied to the surface synoptic circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM control run, and a set of surface grid cell temperatures are generated. These temperatures, based on the larger-scale validated circulation, may now be used with greater confidence at the regional scale. The generated temperatures are compared to those of the model and show that the model has regional errors of up to 10 C in individual grid cells.

  19. A fully-implicit model of the global ocean circulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijer, Wilbert; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Öksüzoğlu, Hakan; Wubs, Fred W.; Niet, Arie C. de

    2003-01-01

    With the recent developments in the solution methods for large-dimensional nonlinear algebraic systems, fully-implicit ocean circulation models are now becoming feasible. In this paper, the formulation of such a three-dimensional global ocean model is presented. With this implicit model, the

  20. The ECHAM3 atmospheric general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-09-01

    The ECHAM model has been developed from the ECMWF model (cycle 31, November 1988). It contains several changes, mostly in the parameterization, in order to adjust the model for climate simulations. The technical details of the ECHAM operational model are described. (orig./KW)

  1. PWR hot leg natural circulation modeling with MELCOR code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Jae Hong; Lee, Jong In [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-12-31

    Previous MELCOR and SCDAP/RELAP5 nodalizations for simulating the counter-current, natural circulation behavior of vapor flow within the RCS hot legs and SG U-tubes when core damage progress can not be applied to the steady state and water-filled conditions during the initial period of accident progression because of the artificially high loss coefficients in the hot legs and SG U-tubes which were chosen from results of COMMIX calculation and the Westinghouse natural circulation experiments in a 1/7-scale facility for simulating steam natural circulation behavior in the vessel and circulation modeling which can be used both for the liquid flow condition at steady state and for the vapor flow condition at the later period of in-vessel core damage. For this, the drag forces resulting from the momentum exchange effects between the two vapor streams in the hot leg was modeled as a pressure drop by pump model. This hot leg natural circulation modeling of MELCOR was able to reproduce similar mass flow rates with those predicted by previous models. 6 refs., 2 figs. (Author)

  2. Response of an ocean general circulation model to wind and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The stretched-coordinate ocean general circulation model has been designed to study the observed variability due to wind and thermodynamic forcings. The model domain extends from 60°N to 60°S and cyclically continuous in the longitudinal direction. The horizontal resolution is 5° × 5° and 9 discrete vertical levels.

  3. Base Flow Model Validation Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The innovation is the systematic "building-block" validation of CFD/turbulence models employing a GUI driven CFD code (RPFM) and existing as well as new data sets to...

  4. Validating Dart Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mazur Jolanta

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The primary objective of the study was to quantitatively test the DART model, which despite being one of the most popular representations of co-creation concept was so far studied almost solely with qualitative methods. To this end, the researchers developed a multiple measurement scale and employed it in interviewing managers. The statistical evidence for adequacy of the model was obtained through CFA with AMOS software. The findings suggest that the DART model may not be an accurate representation of co-creation practices in companies. From the data analysis it was evident that the building blocks of DART had too much of conceptual overlap to be an effective framework for quantitative analysis. It was also implied that the phenomenon of co-creation is so rich and multifaceted that it may be more adequately captured by a measurement model where co-creation is conceived as a third-level factor with two layers of intermediate latent variables.

  5. Stratospheric General Circulation with Chemistry Model (SGCCM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rood, Richard B.; Douglass, Anne R.; Geller, Marvin A.; Kaye, Jack A.; Nielsen, J. Eric; Rosenfield, Joan E.; Stolarski, Richard S.

    1990-01-01

    In the past two years constituent transport and chemistry experiments have been performed using both simple single constituent models and more complex reservoir species models. Winds for these experiments have been taken from the data assimilation effort, Stratospheric Data Analysis System (STRATAN).

  6. Plausible Effect of Weather on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation with a Coupled General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zedong; Wan, Xiuquan

    2018-04-01

    The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a vital component of the global ocean circulation and the heat engine of the climate system. Through the use of a coupled general circulation model, this study examines the role of synoptic systems on the AMOC and presents evidence that internally generated high-frequency, synoptic-scale weather variability in the atmosphere could play a significant role in maintaining the overall strength and variability of the AMOC, thereby affecting climate variability and change. Results of a novel coupling technique show that the strength and variability of the AMOC are greatly reduced once the synoptic weather variability is suppressed in the coupled model. The strength and variability of the AMOC are closely linked to deep convection events at high latitudes, which could be strongly affected by the weather variability. Our results imply that synoptic weather systems are important in driving the AMOC and its variability. Thus, interactions between atmospheric weather variability and AMOC may be an important feedback mechanism of the global climate system and need to be taken into consideration in future climate change studies.

  7. Empirical justification of the elementary model of money circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schinckus, Christophe; Altukhov, Yurii A.; Pokrovskii, Vladimir N.

    2018-03-01

    This paper proposes an elementary model describing the money circulation for a system, composed by a production system, the government, a central bank, commercial banks and their customers. A set of equations for the system determines the main features of interaction between the production and the money circulation. It is shown, that the money system can evolve independently of the evolution of production. The model can be applied to any national economy but we will illustrate our claim in the context of the Russian monetary system.

  8. The Hamburg oceanic carbon cycle circulation model. Cycle 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maier-Reimer, E.; Heinze, C.

    1992-02-01

    The carbon cycle model calculates the prognostic fields of oceanic geochemical carbon cycle tracers making use of a 'frozen' velocity field provided by a run of the LSG oceanic circulation model (see the corresponding manual, LSG=Large Scale Geostrophic). The carbon cycle model includes a crude approximation of interactions between sediment and bottom layer water. A simple (meridionally diffusive) one layer atmosphere model allows to calculate the CO 2 airborne fraction resulting from the oceanic biogeochemical interactions. (orig.)

  9. Model for large scale circulation of nuclides in nature, 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ohnishi, Teruaki

    1988-12-01

    A model for large scale circulation of nuclides was developed, and a computer code named COCAIN was made which simulates this circulation system-dynamically. The natural environment considered in the present paper consists of 2 atmospheres, 8 geospheres and 2 lithospheres. The biosphere is composed of 4 types of edible plants, 5 cattles and their products, 4 water biota and 16 human organs. The biosphere is assumed to be given nuclides from the natural environment mentioned above. With the use of COCAIN, two numerical case studies were carried out; the one is the study on nuclear pollution in nature by the radioactive nuclides originating from the past nuclear bomb tests, and the other is the study on the response of environment and biota to the pulse injection of nuclides into one compartment. From the former case study it was verified that this model can well explain the observation and properly simulate the large scale circulation of nuclides in nature.

  10. Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleixner, Stephanie; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Demissie, Teferi D.; Counillon, François; Wang, Yiguo; Viste, Ellen

    2017-11-01

    The Ethiopian economy and population is strongly dependent on rainfall. Operational seasonal predictions for the main rainy season (Kiremt, June-September) are based on statistical approaches with Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) as the main predictor. Here we analyse dynamical predictions from 11 coupled general circulation models for the Kiremt seasons from 1985-2005 with the forecasts starting from the beginning of May. We find skillful predictions from three of the 11 models, but no model beats a simple linear prediction model based on the predicted Niño3.4 indices. The skill of the individual models for dynamically predicting Kiremt rainfall depends on the strength of the teleconnection between Kiremt rainfall and concurrent Pacific SST in the models. Models that do not simulate this teleconnection fail to capture the observed relationship between Kiremt rainfall and the large-scale Walker circulation.

  11. 14C-age tracers in global ocean circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koeve, W.; Wagner, H.; Kähler, P.; Oschlies, A.

    2014-10-01

    The natural abundance of 14C in total CO2 dissolved in seawater is a property applied to evaluate the water age structure and circulation in the ocean and in ocean models. In this study we use three different representations of the global ocean circulation augmented with a suite of idealised tracers to study the potential and limitations of using natural 14C to determine water age, the time elapsed since a body of water had contact with the atmosphere. We find that, globally, bulk 14C-age is dominated by two equally important components, one associated with aging, i.e. the time component of circulation and one associated with a "preformed 14C-age". This latter quantity exists because of the slow and incomplete atmosphere/ocean equilibration of 14C in particular in high latitudes where many water masses form. The relative contribution of the preformed component to bulk 14C-age varies regionally within a given model, but also between models. Regional variability, e.g. in the Atlantic Ocean is associated with the mixing of waters with very different end members of preformed 14C-age. In the Atlantic, variations in the preformed component over space and time mask the circulation component to an extent that its patterns are not detectable from bulk 14C-age alone. Between models the variability of age can also be considerable (factor of 2), related to the combinations of physical model parameters, which influence circulation dynamics, and gas exchange in the models. The preformed component was found to be very sensitive to gas exchange and moderately sensitive to ice cover. In our model evaluation exercise, the choice of the gas exchange constant from within the current range of uncertainty had such a strong influence on preformed and bulk 14C-age that if model evaluation would be based on bulk 14C-age it could easily impair the evaluation and tuning of a models circulation on global and regional scales. Based on the results of this study, we propose that considering

  12. A Simple Diagnostic Model of the Circulation Beneath an Ice Shelf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Adrian; Nøst, Ole Anders

    2017-04-01

    The ocean circulation beneath ice shelves supplies the heat required to melt ice and exports the resulting freshwater. It therefore plays a key role in determining the mass balance and geometry of the ice shelves and hence the restraint they impose on the outflow of grounded ice from the interior of the ice sheet. Despite this critical role in regulating the ice sheet's contribution to eustatic sea level, an understanding of some of the most basic features of the circulation is lacking. The conventional paradigm is one of a buoyancy-forced overturning circulation, with inflow of warm, salty water along the seabed and outflow of cooled and freshened waters along the ice base. However, most sub-ice-shelf cavities are broad relative to the internal Rossby radius, so a horizontal circulation accompanies the overturning. Primitive equation ocean models applied to idealised geometries produce cyclonic gyres of comparable magnitude, but in the absence of a theoretical understanding of what controls the gyre strength, those solutions can only be validated against each other. Furthermore, we have no understanding of how the gyre circulation should change given more complex geometries. To begin to address this gap in our theoretical understanding we present a simple, linear, steady-state model for the circulation beneath an ice shelf. Our approach in analogous to that of Stommel's classic analysis of the wind-driven gyres, but is complicated by the fact that his most basic assumption of homogeneity is inappropriate. The only forcing on the flow beneath an ice shelf arises because of the horizontal density gradients set up by melting. We thus arrive at a diagnostic model which gives us the depth-dependent horizontal circulation that results from an imposed geometry and density distribution. We describe the development of the model and present some preliminary solutions for the simplest cavity geometries.

  13. Interactions Between the Thermohaline Circulation and Tropical Atlantic SST in a Coupled General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Ron; Jiang, Xing-Jian; Travis, Larry (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Tropical Atlantic SST shows a (statistically well-defined) decadal time scale in a 104-year simulation of unforced variability by a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The SST anomalies superficially resemble observed Tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), and are associated with changes in the atmospheric circulation. Brazilian rainfall is modulated with a decadal time scale, along with the strength of the Atlantic trade winds, which are associated with variations in evaporation and the net surface heat flux. However, in contrast to observed tropical Atlantic variability, the trade winds damp the associated anomalies in ocean temperature, indicating a negative feedback. Tropical SST anomalies in the CGCM, though opposed by the surface heat flux, are advected in from the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. These variations modulate the strength of the thermohaline circulation (THC): warm, salty anomalies at the equator sink drawing cold, fresh mid-latitude water. Upon reaching the equator, the latter inhibit vertical overturning and advection from higher latitudes, which allows warm, salty anomalies to reform, returning the cycle to its original state. Thus, the cycle results from advection of density anomalies and the effect of these anomalies upon the rate of vertical overturning and surface advection. This decadal modulation of Tropical Atlantic SST and the thermohaline circulation is correlated with ocean heat transport to the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and Norwegian Sea SST. Because of the central role of equatorial convection, we question whether this mechanism is present in the current climate, although we speculate that it may have operated in palaeo times, depending upon the stability of the tropical water column.

  14. Seasonal variability of salinity and circulation in a silled estuarine fjord: A numerical model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawase, Mitsuhiro; Bang, Bohyun

    2013-12-01

    A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model is used to study seasonal variability of circulation and hydrography in Hood Canal, Washington, United States, an estuarine fjord that develops seasonally hypoxic conditions. The model is validated with data from year 2006, and is shown to be capable of quantitatively realistic simulation of hydrographic variability. Sensitivity experiments show the largest cause of seasonal variability to be that of salinity at the mouth of the fjord, which drives an annual deep water renewal in late summer-early autumn. Variability of fresh water input from the watershed also causes significant but secondary changes, especially in winter. Local wind stress has little effect over the seasonal timescale. Further experiments, in which one forcing parameter is abruptly altered while others are kept constant, show that outside salinity change induces an immediate response in the exchange circulation that, however, decays as a transient as the system equilibrates. In contrast, a change in the river input initiates gradual adjustment towards a new equilibrium value for the exchange transport. It is hypothesized that the spectral character of the system response to river variability will be redder than to salinity variability. This is demonstrated with a stochastically forced, semi-analytical model of fjord exchange circulation. While the exchange circulation in Hood Canal appears less sensitive to the river variability than to the outside hydrography at seasonal timescales, at decadal and longer timescales both could become significant factors in affecting the exchange circulation.

  15. A general circulation model (GCM) parameterization of Pinatubo aerosols

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lacis, A.A.; Carlson, B.E.; Mishchenko, M.I. [NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States)

    1996-04-01

    The June 1991 volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo is the largest and best documented global climate forcing experiment in recorded history. The time development and geographical dispersion of the aerosol has been closely monitored and sampled. Based on preliminary estimates of the Pinatubo aerosol loading, general circulation model predictions of the impact on global climate have been made.

  16. Numerical experimentation of a diagnostic model of 3-D circulation in the Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Shaji, C.; Bahulayan, N.; Dube, S.K.; Rao, A.D.

    Climatic circulation in the upper levels of the Arabian Sea and western equatorial Indian Ocean are computed using a 3-dimensional, 33 level diagnostic circulation model. A steady state solution is obtained within 30 days of model integration. Model...

  17. Impact of an improved shortwave radiation scheme in the MAECHAM5 General Circulation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Morcrette

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available In order to improve the representation of ozone absorption in the stratosphere of the MAECHAM5 general circulation model, the spectral resolution of the shortwave radiation parameterization used in the model has been increased from 4 to 6 bands. Two 20-years simulations with the general circulation model have been performed, one with the standard and the other with the newly introduced parameterization respectively, to evaluate the temperature and dynamical changes arising from the two different representations of the shortwave radiative transfer. In the simulation with the increased spectral resolution in the radiation parameterization, a significant warming of almost the entire model domain is reported. At the summer stratopause the temperature increase is about 6 K and alleviates the cold bias present in the model when the standard radiation scheme is used. These general circulation model results are consistent both with previous validation of the radiation scheme and with the offline clear-sky comparison performed in the current work with a discrete ordinate 4 stream scattering line by line radiative transfer model. The offline validation shows a substantial reduction of the daily averaged shortwave heating rate bias (1–2 K/day cooling that occurs for the standard radiation parameterization in the upper stratosphere, present under a range of atmospheric conditions. Therefore, the 6 band shortwave radiation parameterization is considered to be better suited for the representation of the ozone absorption in the stratosphere than the 4 band parameterization. Concerning the dynamical response in the general circulation model, it is found that the reported warming at the summer stratopause induces stronger zonal mean zonal winds in the middle atmosphere. These stronger zonal mean zonal winds thereafter appear to produce a dynamical feedback that results in a dynamical warming (cooling of the polar winter (summer mesosphere, caused by an

  18. The Donders model of the circulation in normo- and pathophysiology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Noordergraaf, Gerrit J.; Ottesen, Johnny T.; Kortsmit, Wil J.P.M.

    2006-01-01

    and output, changes during exercise. First, it rotates counterclockwise and stretches along the output axis, second, it shifts along the filling axis. The first is induced by sympathetic control, the second by respiratory control. The model shows that depth of respiration, sympathetic stimulation of cardiac......A model of the closed human cardiovascular loop is developed. This model, using one set of 88 equations, allows variations from normal resting conditions to exercise, as well as to the extreme condition of a circulation following cardiac arrest. The principal purpose of the model is to evaluate...

  19. Validation process of simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    San Isidro, M. J.

    1998-01-01

    It is presented a methodology on empirical validation about any detailed simulation model. This king of validation it is always related with an experimental case. The empirical validation has a residual sense, because the conclusions are based on comparisons between simulated outputs and experimental measurements. This methodology will guide us to detect the fails of the simulation model. Furthermore, it can be used a guide in the design of posterior experiments. Three steps can be well differentiated: Sensitivity analysis. It can be made with a DSA, differential sensitivity analysis, and with a MCSA, Monte-Carlo sensitivity analysis. Looking the optimal domains of the input parameters. It has been developed a procedure based on the Monte-Carlo methods and Cluster techniques, to find the optimal domains of these parameters. Residual analysis. This analysis has been made on the time domain and on the frequency domain, it has been used the correlation analysis and spectral analysis. As application of this methodology, it is presented the validation carried out on a thermal simulation model on buildings, Esp., studying the behavior of building components on a Test Cell of LECE of CIEMAT. (Author) 17 refs

  20. Treatment of cloud radiative effects in general circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, W.C.; Dudek, M.P.; Liang, X.Z.; Ding, M. [State Univ. of New York, Albany, NY (United States)] [and others

    1996-04-01

    We participate in the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program with two objectives: (1) to improve the general circulation model (GCM) cloud/radiation treatment with a focus on cloud verticle overlapping and layer cloud optical properties, and (2) to study the effects of cloud/radiation-climate interaction on GCM climate simulations. This report summarizes the project progress since the Fourth ARM Science Team meeting February 28-March 4, 1994, in Charleston, South Carolina.

  1. Clinical CVVH model removes endothelium-derived microparticles from circulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelhafeez H. Abdelhafeez

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Endothelium-derived microparticles (EMPs are submicron vesicles released from the plasma membrane of endothelial cells in response to injury, apoptosis or activation. We have previously demonstrated EMP-induced acute lung injury (ALI in animal models and endothelial barrier dysfunction in vitro. Current treatment options for ALI are limited and consist of supportive therapies. We hypothesize that standard clinical continuous venovenous hemofiltration (CVVH reduces serum EMP levels and may be adapted as a potential therapeutic intervention. Materials and methods: EMPs were generated from plasminogen activation inhibitor-1 (PAI-1-stimulated human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs. Flow cytometric analysis was used to characterize EMPs as CD31- and annexin V-positive events in a submicron size gate. Enumeration was completed against a known concentration of latex beads. Ultimately, a concentration of ~650,000 EMP/mL perfusate fluid (total 470 mL was circulated through a standard CVVH filter (pore size 200 μm, flow rate 250 mL/hr for a period of 70 minutes. 0.5 mL aliquots were removed at 5- to 10-minute intervals for flow cytometric analysis. EMP concentration in the dialysate was measured at the end of 4 hours to better understand the fate of EMPs. Results: A progressive decrease in circulating EMP concentration was noted using standard CVVH at 250 mL/hr (a clinical standard rate from a 470 mL volume modelling a patient's circulation. A 50% reduction was noted within the first 30 minutes. EMPs entering the dialysate after 4 hours were 5.7% of the EMP original concentration. Conclusion: These data demonstrate that standard CVVH can remove EMPs from circulation in a circuit modelling a patient. An animal model of hemofiltration with induction of EMP release is required to test the therapeutic potential of this finding and potential of application in early treatment of ALI.

  2. Statistical validation of stochastic models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunter, N.F. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States). Engineering Science and Analysis Div.; Barney, P.; Paez, T.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States). Experimental Structural Dynamics Dept.; Ferregut, C.; Perez, L. [Univ. of Texas, El Paso, TX (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering

    1996-12-31

    It is common practice in structural dynamics to develop mathematical models for system behavior, and the authors are now capable of developing stochastic models, i.e., models whose parameters are random variables. Such models have random characteristics that are meant to simulate the randomness in characteristics of experimentally observed systems. This paper suggests a formal statistical procedure for the validation of mathematical models of stochastic systems when data taken during operation of the stochastic system are available. The statistical characteristics of the experimental system are obtained using the bootstrap, a technique for the statistical analysis of non-Gaussian data. The authors propose a procedure to determine whether or not a mathematical model is an acceptable model of a stochastic system with regard to user-specified measures of system behavior. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the application of the technique.

  3. Verification and validation of models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbert, A.W.; Hodgkinson, D.P.; Jackson, C.P.; Lever, D.A.; Robinson, P.C.

    1986-12-01

    The numerical accuracy of the computer models for groundwater flow and radionuclide transport that are to be used in repository safety assessment must be tested, and their ability to describe experimental data assessed: they must be verified and validated respectively. Also appropriate ways to use the codes in performance assessments, taking into account uncertainties in present data and future conditions, must be studied. These objectives are being met by participation in international exercises, by developing bench-mark problems, and by analysing experiments. In particular the project has funded participation in the HYDROCOIN project for groundwater flow models, the Natural Analogues Working Group, and the INTRAVAL project for geosphere models. (author)

  4. The relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation in general circulation model experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kharin, V.V.

    1994-01-01

    Several multi-year integrations of the Hamburg version of the ECMWF/T21 general circulation model driven by the sea surface temperature (SST) observed in the period 1970-1988 were examined to study the extratropical response of the atmospheric circulation to SST anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere in winter. In the first 19-years run SST anomalies were prescribed globally (GAGO run), and in two others SST variability was limited to extratropical regions (MOGA run) and to tropics (TOGA run), respectively. A canonical correlation analysis was applied to the monthly means to find the best correlated patterns of SST anomalies in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric flow. Contrary to expectation, the extratropical response in the GAGO run is not equal to the linear combination of the responses in the MOGA and TOGA runs. In the GAGO integration with globally prescribed SST the best correlated atmospheric pattern is global and is characterized by dipole structures of the same polarity in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific sectors. In the MOGA and TOGA experiments the atmospheric response is more local with main centers in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, respectively. The atmospheric modes found by the CCA were compared with the normal modes of the barotropic vorticity equation linearized about the 500 mb winter climate of the control integration driven by the climatological SST. The normal modes with smallest eigenvalues are similar to the canonical patterns of 500 mb geopotential height. The corresponding eigenvectors of the adjoint operator, which represent an external forcing optimal for exciting normal modes, have a longitudinal structure with maxima in regions characterized by enhanced high frequency baroclinic activity over both oceans. It was suggested that variability of storm tracks could play an important role in variability of the barotropic normal modes. (orig.)

  5. Characterizing the surface circulation in Ebro Delta (NW Mediterranean) with HF radar and modeled current data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorente, P.; Piedracoba, S.; Sotillo, M. G.; Aznar, R.; Amo-Balandron, A.; Pascual, A.; Soto-Navarro, J.; Alvarez-Fanjul, E.

    2016-11-01

    Quality-controlled current observations from a High Frequency radar (HFR) network deployed in the Ebro River Delta (NW Mediterranean) were combined with outputs from IBI operational ocean forecasting system in order to comprehensively portray the ocean state and its variability during 2014. Accurate HFR data were used as benchmark for a rigorous validation of the Iberia-Biscay-Ireland (IBI) regional system, routinely operated in the frame of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). The analysis of skill metrics and monthly averaged current maps showed that IBI reasonably captured the prevailing dynamic features of the coastal circulation previously observed by the HFR, according to the moderate resemblance found in circulation patterns and the spatial distribution of eddy kinetic energy. The model skill assessment was completed with an exploration of dominant modes of spatiotemporal variability. The EOF analysis confirmed that the modeled surface current field evolved both in space and time according to three significantly dominant modes of variability which accounted for the 49.2% of the total variance, in close agreement with the results obtained for HFR (46.1%). The response of the subtidal surface current field to prevailing wind regime in the study area was examined in terms of induced circulation structures and immediacy of reaction by performing a conditional averaging approach and a time-lagged vector correlation analysis, respectively. This observations-model synergistic strategy has proved to be valid to operationally monitor the complex coastal circulation in Ebro Delta despite the observed model drawbacks in terms of reduced energy content in surface currents and some inaccuracies in the wind-driven low frequency response. This integrated methodology aids to improve the prognostic capabilities of IBI ocean forecasting system and also to facilitate high-stakes decision-making for coastal management in the Ebro River Delta marine

  6. Characterizing the surface circulation in the Ebro Delta using a HF radar data-model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorente Jimenez, Pablo; Piedracoba Varela, Silvia; Soto-Navarro, Javier; Garcia-Sotillo, Marcos; Alvarez Fanjul, Enrique

    2016-04-01

    One year-long (2014) quality-controlled current observations from a CODAR SeaSonde High Frequency (HF) radar network deployed in the Ebro Delta (northwestern Mediterranean) were combined with operational products provided by a regional ocean forecasting system named IBI (Iberia-Biscay-Ireland) in order to comprehensively portray the ocean state and its variability. First, accurate HF radar data were used as benchmark for the rigorous validation of IBI performance by means of the computation of skill metrics and quality indicators. The analysis of the monthly averaged current maps for 2014 showed that IBI properly captured the prevailing dynamic features of the coastal circulation observed by the HF radar, according to the resemblance of circulation patterns and the eddy kinetic energy spatial distribution. The model skill assessment was completed with an exploration of dominant modes of variability both in time and space. The EOF analysis confirmed that the modeled surface current field evolved in space and time according to three significantly dominant modes of variability which accounted for the 49.2% of the total variance, in close agreement with the results obtained for the HF radar (46.1%). The response of the subtidal surface current field to prevalent wind regimes in the study area was examined in terms of induced circulation structures by performing a conditional averaging approach. This data-model synergistic approach has proved to be valid to operationally monitor and describe the complex coastal circulation in Ebro Delta despite the observed model drawbacks in terms of reduced energy content in surface currents and some inaccuracies in the wind-driven low frequency response. This integrated methodology constitutes a powerful tool for improving operational ocean forecasting systems at European level within the frame of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). It also facilitates high-stakes decision-making for coastal management and

  7. Analysis of snow feedbacks in 14 general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randall, D. A.; Cess, R. D.; Blanchet, J. P.; Chalita, S.; Colman, R.; Dazlich, D. A.; Del Genio, A. D.; Keup, E.; Lacis, A.; Le Treut, H.; Liang, X.-Z.; McAvaney, B. J.; Mahfouf, J. F.; Meleshko, V. P.; Morcrette, J.-J.; Norris, P. M.; Potter, G. L.; Rikus, L.; Roeckner, E.; Royer, J. F.; Schlese, U.; Sheinin, D. A.; Sokolov, A. P.; Taylor, K. E.; Wetherald, R. T.; Yagai, I.; Zhang, M.-H.

    1994-10-01

    Snow feedbacks produced by 14 atmospheric general circulation models have been analyzed through idealized numerical experiments. Included in the analysis is an investigation of the surface energy budgets of the models. Negative or weak positive snow feedbacks occurred in some of the models, while others produced strong positive snow feedbacks. These feedbacks are due not only to melting snow, but also to increases in boundary temperature, changes in air temperature, changes in water vapor, and changes in cloudiness. As a result, the net response of each model is quite complex. We analyze in detail the responses of one model with a strong positive snow feedback and another with a weak negative snow feedback. Some of the models include a temperature dependence of the snow albedo, and this has significantly affected the results.

  8. Relaxation oscillations in an idealized ocean circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Andrew; Saha, Raj

    2017-04-01

    This work is motivated by a desire to understand transitions between stable equilibria observed in Stommel's 1961 thermohaline circulation model. We adapt the model, including a forcing parameter as a dynamic slow variable. The resulting model is a piecewise-smooth, three time-scale system. The model is analyzed using geometric singular perturbation theory to demonstrate the existence of attracting periodic orbits. The system is capable of producing classical relaxation oscillations as expected, but there is also a parameter regime in which the model exhibits small amplitude oscillations known as canard cycles. Forcing the model with obliquity variations from the last 100,000 years produces oscillations that are modulated in amplitude and frequency. The output shows similarities with important features of the climate proxy data of the same period.

  9. Modelling wildfire activity in Iberia with different Atmospheric Circulation WTs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sousa, P. M.; Trigo, R.; Pereira, M. G.; Rasilla, D.; Gouveia, C.

    2012-04-01

    This work focuses on the spatial and temporal variability of burnt area (BA) for the entire Iberian Peninsula (IP) and on the construction of statistical models to reproduce the inter-annual variability, based on Weather Types Classification (WTC). A common BA dataset was assembled for the first time for the entire Iberian Peninsula, by merging BA records for the 66 administrative regions of Portugal and Spain. A normalization procedure was then applied to the various size regions before performing a k-means cluster analysis to identify large areas characterized by similar fire regimes. The most compelling results were obtained for 4 clusters (Northwestern, Northern, Southwestern and Eastern) whose spatial patterns and seasonal fire regimes are shown to be related with constraining factors such as topography, vegetation cover and climate conditions. The response of fire burnt surface at monthly time scales to both long-term climatic pre-conditions and short-term synoptic forcing was assessed through correlation and regression analysis using: (i) temperature and precipitation from 2 to 7 months in advance to fire peak season; (ii) synoptic weather patterns derived from 11 distinct classifications derived under the COSTaction-733. Different responses were obtained for each of the considered regions: (i) a relevant link between BA and short-term synoptic forcing (represented by monthly frequencies of WTC) was identified for all clusters; (ii) long-term climatic preconditioning was relevant for all but one cluster (Northern). Taking into account these links, we developed stepwise regression models with the aim of reproducing the observed BA series (i.e. in hindcast mode). These models were based on the best climatic and synoptic circulation predictors identified previously. All models were cross-validated and their performance varies between clusters, though models exclusively based on WTCs tend to better reproduce annual BA time series than those only based on pre

  10. PEMFC modeling and experimental validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vargas, J.V.C. [Federal University of Parana (UFPR), Curitiba, PR (Brazil). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering], E-mail: jvargas@demec.ufpr.br; Ordonez, J.C.; Martins, L.S. [Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL (United States). Center for Advanced Power Systems], Emails: ordonez@caps.fsu.edu, martins@caps.fsu.edu

    2009-07-01

    In this paper, a simplified and comprehensive PEMFC mathematical model introduced in previous studies is experimentally validated. Numerical results are obtained for an existing set of commercial unit PEM fuel cells. The model accounts for pressure drops in the gas channels, and for temperature gradients with respect to space in the flow direction, that are investigated by direct infrared imaging, showing that even at low current operation such gradients are present in fuel cell operation, and therefore should be considered by a PEMFC model, since large coolant flow rates are limited due to induced high pressure drops in the cooling channels. The computed polarization and power curves are directly compared to the experimentally measured ones with good qualitative and quantitative agreement. The combination of accuracy and low computational time allow for the future utilization of the model as a reliable tool for PEMFC simulation, control, design and optimization purposes. (author)

  11. Modelling circulation in an ice-covered lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Arkhipov

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In deep ice-covered lakes with temperatures below 4 °C the heat flux from the bottom sediment results in a horizontal density gradient and a consequent flow along the bottom slope. Measurements in Lake Pääjärvi, Finland, show a stable temperature field where a heat gain through the bottom and a heat loss through the ice nearly balance each other. The circulation is thermal with low velocities (less than 1.5 cm s–1. We used the 3D hydrodynamic Princeton Ocean Model as a tool to simulate the water circulation and the temperature distribution under the ice. The model forcing was based on field temperature measurements. The model simulations suggest that in midwinter the velocity field of the upper water layers is anticyclonic while that of deep layers is cyclonic. Comparison with current measurements at one site showed good agreement between the modelled and observed results. On the basis of the modelled results it is possible to better understand the distributions of some micro-organisms and the accumulation of oxygen depleted waters in the deepest part of the lake.

  12. CISOCUR - Hydrodynamic circulation in the Curonian Lagoon inferred through stable isotope measurements and numerical modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umgiesser, Georg; Razinkovas-Baziukas, Arturas; Barisevičiūtė, Ruta; Baziukė, Dalia; Ertürk, Ali; Gasiūnaitė, Jovita; Gulbinskas, Saulius; Lubienė, Irma; Maračkinaite, Jurgita; Petkuvienė, Jolita; Pilkaitytė, Renata; Ruginis, Tomas; Zemlys, Petras; Žilius, Mindaugas

    2013-04-01

    The spatial pattern of the hydrodynamic circulation of the Curonian lagoon, the largest European coastal lagoon, is still little understood. In absence of automatic current registration data all the existing models relied mostly on such data as water levels leaving high level of uncertainty. Here we present CISOCUR, a new project financed by the European Social Fund under the Global Grant measure. The project applies a new methodology that uses the carbon stable isotope (SI) ratio of C12 and C13 that characterize different water sources entering the lagoon and may be altered by internal kinetic processes. Through the tracing of these isotope ratios different water masses can be identified. This gives the possibility to validate several hypotheses of water circulation and validate hydrodynamic models. In particular it will be possible to 1) trace water masses entering the lagoon through the Nemunas and the Klaipeda strait; 2) test the hypothesis of sediment transport mechanisms inside the lagoon; 3) evaluate the importance of physical forcing on the lagoon circulation. The use of a hydrodynamic finite element model, coupled with the SI method, will allow for a realistic description of the transport processes inside the Curonian lagoon. So the main research goal is to apply the stable isotope tracers and a finite element model to determine the circulation patterns in the Curonian lagoon. Overall, the project will develop according to 4 main phases: 1) A pilot study to measure the isotope composition of different carbon compounds (dissolved and suspended) in different water bodies that feed water into the central lagoon. Through this pilot study the optimal study sites for the seasonal campaign will be identified as well. 2) Seasonal field campaigns in the monitoring stations identified in phase 1 to measure the carbon isotope ratio. 3) Development of a model that describes the kinetics of carbon isotopes and its transformation. 4) Application of a hydrodynamic model

  13. A mesoscale model study of atmospheric circulations for the northern hemisphere summer on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyler, Daniel, Jr.

    The Penn-State/NCAR MM5 mesoscale model was adapted for mesoscale simulations of the Martian atmosphere (the OSU MMM5). The NASA Ames Mars GCM provides initial and boundary conditions. High-resolution maps for albedo, thermal inertia and topography were developed from Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) data; these baseline maps are processed to appropriate resolutions for use in the GCM and the mesoscale model. The OSU MMM5 is validated in Chapter 2 by comparing with surface meteorology observed at the Viking Lander 1 (VL1) and Mars Pathfinder (MPF) landing sites. How the diurnal cycle of surface pressure (the surface pressure tide) is affected by boundaries, domain/nest choices and the resolution of surface properties (topography, albedo and thermal inertia) is examined. Chapter 2 additionally shows the influence of regional slope flows in the diurnal surface pressure cycle for certain locations on Mars. Building on the methods of Chapter 2, Chapter 3 describes the northern midsummer polar circulation and the circulations (both large and small scale) that influence it. Improvements to the model for these studies include: the topographical gradient is now considered when computing surface insolation, and the thermal inertia maps and model initialization are improved for high latitudes; this yields a realistic simulation of surface temperatures for the North Pole Residual Cap (NPRC) and the surrounding region. The midsummer polar circulation is vigorous, with abundant and dynamically important transient eddies. The preferred locations of transients varies significantly during this study, between L s = 120 and L s = 150. At L s = 120 transient circulations are seen primarily along the NPRC margin, consistently producing strong flow over the residual cap (~15 m/s). By L s = 135, transient eddies form a "storm track" between the northern slopes of Tharsis and the NPRC. By L s = 150, the circulation is becoming strong and winter-like. These transient eddies may be important in

  14. An analytical and experimental investigation of natural circulation transients in a model pressurized water reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Massoud, M.

    1987-01-01

    Natural Circulation phenomena in a simulated PWR was investigated experimentally and analytically. The experimental investigation included determination of system characteristics as well as system response to the imposed transient under symmetric and asymmetric operations. System characteristics were used to obtain correlation for heat transfer coefficient in heat exchangers, system flow resistance, and system buoyancy heat. Asymmetric transients were imposed to study flow oscillation and possible instability. The analytical investigation encompassed development of mathematical model for single-phase, steady-state and transient natural circulation as well as modification of existing model for two-phase flow analysis of phenomena such as small break LOCA, high pressure coolant injection and pump coast down. The developed mathematical model for single-phase analysis was computer coded to simulate the imposed transients. The computer program, entitled ''Symmetric and Asymmetric Analysis of Single-Phase Flow (SAS),'' were employed to simulate the imposed transients. It closely emulated the system behavior throughout the transient and subsequent steady-state. Modifications for two-phase flow analysis included addition of models for once-through steam generator and electric heater rods. Both programs are faster than real time. Off-line, they can be used for prediction and training applications while on-line they serve for simulation and signal validation. The programs can also be used to determine the sensitivity of natural circulation behavior to variation of inputs such as secondary distribution and power transients

  15. An analytical and experimental investigation of natural circulation transients in a model pressurized water reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Massoud, M

    1987-01-01

    Natural Circulation phenomena in a simulated PWR was investigated experimentally and analytically. The experimental investigation included determination of system characteristics as well as system response to the imposed transient under symmetric and asymmetric operations. System characteristics were used to obtain correlation for heat transfer coefficient in heat exchangers, system flow resistance, and system buoyancy heat. Asymmetric transients were imposed to study flow oscillation and possible instability. The analytical investigation encompassed development of mathematical model for single-phase, steady-state and transient natural circulation as well as modification of existing model for two-phase flow analysis of phenomena such as small break LOCA, high pressure coolant injection and pump coast down. The developed mathematical model for single-phase analysis was computer coded to simulate the imposed transients. The computer program, entitled ''Symmetric and Asymmetric Analysis of Single-Phase Flow (SAS),'' were employed to simulate the imposed transients. It closely emulated the system behavior throughout the transient and subsequent steady-state. Modifications for two-phase flow analysis included addition of models for once-through steam generator and electric heater rods. Both programs are faster than real time. Off-line, they can be used for prediction and training applications while on-line they serve for simulation and signal validation. The programs can also be used to determine the sensitivity of natural circulation behavior to variation of inputs such as secondary distribution and power transients.

  16. A Pacific Ocean general circulation model for satellite data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Y.; Halpern, D.; Mechoso, C. R.

    1991-01-01

    A tropical Pacific Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) to be used in satellite data assimilation studies is described. The transfer of the OGCM from a CYBER-205 at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to a CRAY-2 at NASA's Ames Research Center is documented. Two 3-year model integrations from identical initial conditions but performed on those two computers are compared. The model simulations are very similar to each other, as expected, but the simulations performed with the higher-precision CRAY-2 is smoother than that with the lower-precision CYBER-205. The CYBER-205 and CRAY-2 use 32 and 64-bit mantissa arithmetic, respectively. The major features of the oceanic circulation in the tropical Pacific, namely the North Equatorial Current, the North Equatorial Countercurrent, the South Equatorial Current, and the Equatorial Undercurrent, are realistically produced and their seasonal cycles are described. The OGCM provides a powerful tool for study of tropical oceans and for the assimilation of satellite altimetry data.

  17. Residual estuarine circulation in the Mandovi, a monsoonal estuary: A three-dimensional model study

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Vijith, V.; Shetye, S.R.; Baetens, K.; Luyten, P.; Michael, G.S.

    then analyse the model results to define characteristics of residual estuarine circulation in the Mandovi. Our motivation to study this aspect of the Mandovi`s dynamics is derived from the following three considerations. First, residual circulation is important...

  18. Transient modelling of a natural circulation loop under variable pressure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vianna, Andre L.B.; Faccini, Jose L.H.; Su, Jian, E-mail: avianna@nuclear.ufrj.br, E-mail: sujian@nuclear.ufrj.br, E-mail: faccini@ien.gov.br [Coordenacao de Pos-Graduacao e Pesquisa de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Nuclear; Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Lab. de Termo-Hidraulica Experimental

    2017-07-01

    The objective of the present work is to model the transient operation of a natural circulation loop, which is one-tenth scale in height to a typical Passive Residual Heat Removal system (PRHR) of an Advanced Pressurized Water Nuclear Reactor and was designed to meet the single and two-phase flow similarity criteria to it. The loop consists of a core barrel with electrically heated rods, upper and lower plena interconnected by hot and cold pipe legs to a seven-tube shell heat exchanger of countercurrent design, and an expansion tank with a descending tube. A long transient characterized the loop operation, during which a phenomenon of self-pressurization, without self-regulation of the pressure, was experimentally observed. This represented a unique situation, named natural circulation under variable pressure (NCVP). The self-pressurization was originated in the air trapped in the expansion tank and compressed by the loop water dilatation, as it heated up during each experiment. The mathematical model, initially oriented to the single-phase flow, included the heat capacity of the structure and employed a cubic polynomial approximation for the density, in the buoyancy term calculation. The heater was modelled taking into account the different heat capacities of the heating elements and the heater walls. The heat exchanger was modelled considering the coolant heating, during the heat exchanging process. The self-pressurization was modelled as an isentropic compression of a perfect gas. The whole model was computationally implemented via a set of finite difference equations. The corresponding computational algorithm of solution was of the explicit, marching type, as for the time discretization, in an upwind scheme, regarding the space discretization. The computational program was implemented in MATLAB. Several experiments were carried out in the natural circulation loop, having the coolant flow rate and the heating power as control parameters. The variables used in the

  19. Physically-Derived Dynamical Cores in Atmospheric General Circulation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rood, Richard B.; Lin, Shian-Kiann

    1999-01-01

    The algorithm chosen to represent the advection in atmospheric models is often used as the primary attribute to classify the model. Meteorological models are generally classified as spectral or grid point, with the term grid point implying discretization using finite differences. These traditional approaches have a number of shortcomings that render them non-physical. That is, they provide approximate solutions to the conservation equations that do not obey the fundamental laws of physics. The most commonly discussed shortcomings are overshoots and undershoots which manifest themselves most overtly in the constituent continuity equation. For this reason many climate models have special algorithms to model water vapor advection. This talk focuses on the development of an atmospheric general circulation model which uses a consistent physically-based advection algorithm in all aspects of the model formulation. The shallow-water model of Lin and Rood (QJRMS, 1997) is generalized to three dimensions and combined with the physics parameterizations of NCAR's Community Climate Model. The scientific motivation for the development is to increase the integrity of the underlying fluid dynamics so that the physics terms can be more effectively isolated, examined, and improved. The expected benefits of the new model are discussed and results from the initial integrations will be presented.

  20. Verifying and Validating Simulation Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-02-23

    This presentation is a high-level discussion of the Verification and Validation (V&V) of computational models. Definitions of V&V are given to emphasize that “validation” is never performed in a vacuum; it accounts, instead, for the current state-of-knowledge in the discipline considered. In particular comparisons between physical measurements and numerical predictions should account for their respective sources of uncertainty. The differences between error (bias), aleatoric uncertainty (randomness) and epistemic uncertainty (ignorance, lack-of- knowledge) are briefly discussed. Four types of uncertainty in physics and engineering are discussed: 1) experimental variability, 2) variability and randomness, 3) numerical uncertainty and 4) model-form uncertainty. Statistical sampling methods are available to propagate, and analyze, variability and randomness. Numerical uncertainty originates from the truncation error introduced by the discretization of partial differential equations in time and space. Model-form uncertainty is introduced by assumptions often formulated to render a complex problem more tractable and amenable to modeling and simulation. The discussion concludes with high-level guidance to assess the “credibility” of numerical simulations, which stems from the level of rigor with which these various sources of uncertainty are assessed and quantified.

  1. A stratiform cloud parameterization for General Circulation Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghan, S.J.; Leung, L.R.; Chuang, C.C.; Penner, J.E.; McCaa, J.

    1994-01-01

    The crude treatment of clouds in General Circulation Models (GCMs) is widely recognized as a major limitation in the application of these models to predictions of global climate change. The purpose of this project is to develop a paxameterization for stratiform clouds in GCMs that expresses stratiform clouds in terms of bulk microphysical properties and their subgrid variability. In this parameterization, precipitating cloud species are distinguished from non-precipitating species, and the liquid phase is distinguished from the ice phase. The size of the non-precipitating cloud particles (which influences both the cloud radiative properties and the conversion of non-precipitating cloud species to precipitating species) is determined by predicting both the mass and number concentrations of each species

  2. A stratiform cloud parameterization for general circulation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghan, S.J.; Leung, L.R.; Chuang, C.C.; Penner, J.E.; McCaa, J.

    1994-01-01

    The crude treatment of clouds in general circulation models (GCMs) is widely recognized as a major limitation in applying these models to predictions of global climate change. The purpose of this project is to develop in GCMs a stratiform cloud parameterization that expresses clouds in terms of bulk microphysical properties and their subgrid variability. Various clouds variables and their interactions are summarized. Precipitating cloud species are distinguished from non-precipitating species, and the liquid phase is distinguished from the ice phase. The size of the non-precipitating cloud particles (which influences both the cloud radiative properties and the conversion of non-precipitating cloud species to precipitating species) is determined by predicting both the mass and number concentrations of each species

  3. Different approaches to model the nearshore circulation in the south shore of O'ahu, Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcos Azevedo Correia de Souza, Joao; Powell, Brian

    2017-01-01

    The dynamical interaction between currents, bathymetry, waves, and estuarine outflow has significant impacts on the surf zone. We investigate the impacts of two strategies to include the effect of surface gravity waves on an ocean circulation model of the south shore of O'ahu, Hawaii. This area provides an ideal laboratory for the development of nearshore circulation modeling systems for reef-protected coastlines. We use two numerical models for circulation and waves: Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model, respectively. The circulation model is nested within larger-scale models that capture the tidal, regional, and wind-forced circulation of the Hawaiian archipelago. Two strategies are explored for circulation modeling: forcing by the output of the wave model and online, two-way coupling of the circulation and wave models. In addition, the circulation model alone provides the reference for the circulation without the effect of the waves. These strategies are applied to two experiments: (1) typical trade-wind conditions that are frequent during summer months, and (2) the arrival of a large winter swell that wraps around the island. The results show the importance of considering the effect of the waves on the circulation and, particularly, the circulation-wave coupled processes. Both approaches show a similar nearshore circulation pattern, with the presence of an offshore current in the middle beaches of Waikiki. Although the pattern of the offshore circulation remains the same, the coupled waves and circulation produce larger significant wave heights ( ≈ 10 %) and the formation of strong alongshore and cross-shore currents ( ≈ 1 m s-1).

  4. South Atlantic circulation in a world ocean model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. England

    1994-08-01

    Full Text Available The circulation in the South Atlantic Ocean has been simulated within a global ocean general circulation model. Preliminary analysis of the modelled ocean circulation in the region indicates a rather close agreement of the simulated upper ocean flows with conventional notions of the large-scale geostrophic currents in the region. The modelled South Atlantic Ocean witnesses the return flow and export of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW at its northern boundary, the inflow of a rather barotropic Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC through the Drake Passage, and the inflow of warm saline Agulhas water around the Cape of Good Hope. The Agulhas leakage amounts to 8.7 Sv, within recent estimates of the mass transport shed westward at the Agulhas retroflection. Topographic steering of the ACC dominates the structure of flow in the circumpolar ocean. The Benguela Current is seen to be fed by a mixture of saline Indian Ocean water (originating from the Agulhas Current and fresher Subantarctic surface water (originating in the ACC. The Benguela Current is seen to modify its flow and fate with depth; near the surface it flows north-westwards bifurcating most of its transport northward into the North Atlantic Ocean (for ultimate replacement of North Atlantic surface waters lost to the NADW conveyor. Deeper in the water column, more of the Benguela Current is destined to return with the Brazil Current, though northward flows are still generated where the Benguela Current extension encounters the coast of South America. At intermediate levels, these northward currents trace the flow of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW equatorward, though even more AAIW is seen to recirculate poleward in the subtropical gyre. In spite of the model's rather coarse resolution, some subtle features of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence are simulated rather well, including the latitude at which the two currents meet. Conceptual diagrams of the recirculation and interocean exchange of

  5. South Atlantic circulation in a world ocean model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew H. England

    Full Text Available The circulation in the South Atlantic Ocean has been simulated within a global ocean general circulation model. Preliminary analysis of the modelled ocean circulation in the region indicates a rather close agreement of the simulated upper ocean flows with conventional notions of the large-scale geostrophic currents in the region. The modelled South Atlantic Ocean witnesses the return flow and export of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW at its northern boundary, the inflow of a rather barotropic Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC through the Drake Passage, and the inflow of warm saline Agulhas water around the Cape of Good Hope. The Agulhas leakage amounts to 8.7 Sv, within recent estimates of the mass transport shed westward at the Agulhas retroflection. Topographic steering of the ACC dominates the structure of flow in the circumpolar ocean. The Benguela Current is seen to be fed by a mixture of saline Indian Ocean water (originating from the Agulhas Current and fresher Subantarctic surface water (originating in the ACC. The Benguela Current is seen to modify its flow and fate with depth; near the surface it flows north-westwards bifurcating most of its transport northward into the North Atlantic Ocean (for ultimate replacement of North Atlantic surface waters lost to the NADW conveyor. Deeper in the water column, more of the Benguela Current is destined to return with the Brazil Current, though northward flows are still generated where the Benguela Current extension encounters the coast of South America. At intermediate levels, these northward currents trace the flow of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW equatorward, though even more AAIW is seen to recirculate poleward in the subtropical gyre. In spite of the model's rather coarse resolution, some subtle features of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence are simulated rather well, including the latitude at which the two currents meet. Conceptual diagrams of the recirculation and interocean

  6. Numerical modeling of general circulation, thermohaline structure, and residence time in Gorgan Bay, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranjbar, Mohammad Hassan; Hadjizadeh Zaker, Nasser

    2018-01-01

    Gorgan Bay is a semi-enclosed basin located in the southeast of the Caspian Sea, Iran. The bay is recognized as a resting place for migratory birds as well as a spawning habitat for native fish. However, apparently, no detailed research on its physical processes has previously been conducted. In this study, a 3D coupled hydrodynamic and solute transport model was used to investigate general circulation, thermohaline structure, and residence time in Gorgan Bay. Model outputs were validated against a set of field observations. Bottom friction and attenuation coefficient of light intensity were tuned in order to achieve optimum agreement with the observations. Results revealed that, due to the interaction between bathymetry and prevailing winds, a barotropic double-gyre circulation, dominating the general circulation, existed during all seasons in Gorgan Bay. Furthermore, temperature and salinity fluctuations in the bay were seasonal, due to the seasonal variability of atmospheric fluxes. Results also indicated that under the prevailing winds, the domain-averaged residence time in Gorgan Bay would be approximately 95 days. The rivers discharging into Gorgan Bay are considered as the main sources of nutrients in the bay. Since their mouths are located in the area with a residence time of over 100 days, Gorgan Bay could be at risk of eutrophication; it is necessary to adopt preventive measures against water quality degradation.

  7. A hierarchy of thermohaline circulation models. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cessi, P.; Young, W.R.

    1998-04-01

    The objectives of this effort were: (1) to understand the variability caused by the competitive roles of salt and heat in the ocean circulation; (2) to understand the effect of differential advection of active tracers, such as temperature, salinity and angular momentum; and (3) to improve the parametrization of convection in models of the ocean circulation. One result of the project is the discovery that the characteristics of the quasi-periodic centennial and millennial oscillations found in OGCM`s, associated with alternating suppression and activation of high latitude convection, are extremely sensitive to the salinity flux and specific choice of convective adjustment scheme. In particular, the period of the oscillation depends crucially on the salinity fluxes (whether deterministic or with a stochastic component) and can be arbitrarily long. This result has clarified that these long-period oscillations (termed flushes) are not the result of the excitation of an intrinsic linear eigenmode of the system, but rather are relaxation-oscillations towards one of the several equilibria available to the system. This implies that it is the amplitude, rather than the period, of the oscillation which is almost independent of the salinity flux.

  8. Geochemistry Model Validation Report: External Accumulation Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K. Zarrabi

    2001-09-27

    The purpose of this Analysis and Modeling Report (AMR) is to validate the External Accumulation Model that predicts accumulation of fissile materials in fractures and lithophysae in the rock beneath a degrading waste package (WP) in the potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. (Lithophysae are voids in the rock having concentric shells of finely crystalline alkali feldspar, quartz, and other materials that were formed due to entrapped gas that later escaped, DOE 1998, p. A-25.) The intended use of this model is to estimate the quantities of external accumulation of fissile material for use in external criticality risk assessments for different types of degrading WPs: U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) codisposed with High Level Waste (HLW) glass, commercial SNF, and Immobilized Plutonium Ceramic (Pu-ceramic) codisposed with HLW glass. The scope of the model validation is to (1) describe the model and the parameters used to develop the model, (2) provide rationale for selection of the parameters by comparisons with measured values, and (3) demonstrate that the parameters chosen are the most conservative selection for external criticality risk calculations. To demonstrate the applicability of the model, a Pu-ceramic WP is used as an example. The model begins with a source term from separately documented EQ6 calculations; where the source term is defined as the composition versus time of the water flowing out of a breached waste package (WP). Next, PHREEQC, is used to simulate the transport and interaction of the source term with the resident water and fractured tuff below the repository. In these simulations the primary mechanism for accumulation is mixing of the high pH, actinide-laden source term with resident water; thus lowering the pH values sufficiently for fissile minerals to become insoluble and precipitate. In the final section of the model, the outputs from PHREEQC, are processed to produce mass of accumulation

  9. Geochemistry Model Validation Report: External Accumulation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zarrabi, K.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this Analysis and Modeling Report (AMR) is to validate the External Accumulation Model that predicts accumulation of fissile materials in fractures and lithophysae in the rock beneath a degrading waste package (WP) in the potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. (Lithophysae are voids in the rock having concentric shells of finely crystalline alkali feldspar, quartz, and other materials that were formed due to entrapped gas that later escaped, DOE 1998, p. A-25.) The intended use of this model is to estimate the quantities of external accumulation of fissile material for use in external criticality risk assessments for different types of degrading WPs: U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) codisposed with High Level Waste (HLW) glass, commercial SNF, and Immobilized Plutonium Ceramic (Pu-ceramic) codisposed with HLW glass. The scope of the model validation is to (1) describe the model and the parameters used to develop the model, (2) provide rationale for selection of the parameters by comparisons with measured values, and (3) demonstrate that the parameters chosen are the most conservative selection for external criticality risk calculations. To demonstrate the applicability of the model, a Pu-ceramic WP is used as an example. The model begins with a source term from separately documented EQ6 calculations; where the source term is defined as the composition versus time of the water flowing out of a breached waste package (WP). Next, PHREEQC, is used to simulate the transport and interaction of the source term with the resident water and fractured tuff below the repository. In these simulations the primary mechanism for accumulation is mixing of the high pH, actinide-laden source term with resident water; thus lowering the pH values sufficiently for fissile minerals to become insoluble and precipitate. In the final section of the model, the outputs from PHREEQC, are processed to produce mass of accumulation

  10. Numerical Modeling of Water Circulation and Pollutant Transport in a Shallow Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charafi, My. M.; Sadok, A.; Kamal, A.; Menai, A.

    A two-dimensional numerical model was developed1-3 to simulate the sediment and pollutant transport in a shallow basin. The developed model consist of two modules: Hydrodynamic module and sediment/pollutant transport module. A numerical hydrodynamic module based on the Saint-Venant equations, is resolved by a MacCormack numerical scheme and is used to simulate the circulation pattern in the basin. The obtained flow circulation is used as an input to the sediment/pollutant transport module to simulate the transport and dispersion of a pollutant emitted into the basin. To calibrate the numerical model, the distorted scale model of the Windermere Basin4 was used. In this physical model, the flow visualization and pollutant transport experiments provide a good calibration. The simulated results were found to be in good agreement with the experimental measurements and the results in Ref. 4. With the aid of the validated model, the influence of the construction of dikes on the residence time distributions in the basin was examined.

  11. A Model of the Solar Chromosphere: Structure and Internal Circulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, P.

    2017-01-01

    A model of the solar chromosphere that consists of two fundamentally different regions, a lower region and an upper region, is proposed. The lower region is covered mostly by weak locally closed magnetic field and small network areas of extremely strong, locally open field. The field in the upper region is relatively uniform and locally open, connecting to the corona. The chromosphere is heated by strong collisional damping of Alfvén waves, which are driven by turbulent motions below the photosphere. The heating rate depends on the field strength, wave power from the photosphere, and altitude in the chromosphere. The waves in the internetwork area are mostly damped in the lower region, supporting radiation in the lower chromosphere. The waves in the network area, carrying more Poynting flux, are only weakly damped in the lower region. They propagate into the upper region. As the thermal pressure decreases with height, the network field expands to form the magnetic canopy where the damping of the waves from the network area supports radiation in the whole upper region. Because of the vertical stratification and horizontally nonuniform distribution of the magnetic field and heating, one circulation cell is formed in each of the upper and lower regions. The two circulation cells distort the magnetic field and reinforce the funnel-canopy-shaped magnetic geometry. The model is based on classical processes and is semi-quantitative. The estimates are constrained according to observational knowledge. No anomalous process is invoked or needed. Overall, the heating mechanism is able to damp 50% of the total wave energy.

  12. A Model of the Solar Chromosphere: Structure and Internal Circulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, P. [Space Science Laboratory and Department of Physics, University of Massachusetts Lowell (United States)

    2017-09-10

    A model of the solar chromosphere that consists of two fundamentally different regions, a lower region and an upper region, is proposed. The lower region is covered mostly by weak locally closed magnetic field and small network areas of extremely strong, locally open field. The field in the upper region is relatively uniform and locally open, connecting to the corona. The chromosphere is heated by strong collisional damping of Alfvén waves, which are driven by turbulent motions below the photosphere. The heating rate depends on the field strength, wave power from the photosphere, and altitude in the chromosphere. The waves in the internetwork area are mostly damped in the lower region, supporting radiation in the lower chromosphere. The waves in the network area, carrying more Poynting flux, are only weakly damped in the lower region. They propagate into the upper region. As the thermal pressure decreases with height, the network field expands to form the magnetic canopy where the damping of the waves from the network area supports radiation in the whole upper region. Because of the vertical stratification and horizontally nonuniform distribution of the magnetic field and heating, one circulation cell is formed in each of the upper and lower regions. The two circulation cells distort the magnetic field and reinforce the funnel-canopy-shaped magnetic geometry. The model is based on classical processes and is semi-quantitative. The estimates are constrained according to observational knowledge. No anomalous process is invoked or needed. Overall, the heating mechanism is able to damp 50% of the total wave energy.

  13. Control modeling and Chinese acupuncture treatment on cerebral circulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Li; Sui, Jinxue; Shi, Hongzhi

    2015-01-01

    Cerebral hemodynamic parameters are related to the occurrence and development of the cerebral vascular diseases. This paper proposes a new possible method for control treatment on cerebral circulation network diseases. Cerebral circulation is taken as a kind of fluid network that should be controlled. The acupuncture treatment in traditional Chinese medicine is used as an actuator, whose design principle is changing the artery pressure and resistance of the cerebral circulation to increase the blood flow, so as to achieve the purpose of treating cerebral circulation diseases. Clinical data of acupuncture and moxibustion treatment has also preliminarily proved the correctness of this method.

  14. Three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation: part I—decomposition model and theorems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Shujuan; Chou, Jifan; Cheng, Jianbo

    2018-04-01

    In order to study the interactions between the atmospheric circulations at the middle-high and low latitudes from the global perspective, the authors proposed the mathematical definition of three-pattern circulations, i.e., horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations with which the actual atmospheric circulation is expanded. This novel decomposition method is proved to accurately describe the actual atmospheric circulation dynamics. The authors used the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to calculate the climate characteristics of those three-pattern circulations, and found that the decomposition model agreed with the observed results. Further dynamical analysis indicates that the decomposition model is more accurate to capture the major features of global three dimensional atmospheric motions, compared to the traditional definitions of Rossby wave, Hadley circulation and Walker circulation. The decomposition model for the first time realized the decomposition of global atmospheric circulation using three orthogonal circulations within the horizontal, meridional and zonal planes, offering new opportunities to study the large-scale interactions between the middle-high latitudes and low latitudes circulations.

  15. Prognostic cloud water in the Los Alamos general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristjansson, J.E.; Kao, C.Y.J.

    1993-01-01

    Most of today's general circulation models (GCMS) have a greatly simplified treatment of condensation and clouds. Recent observational studies of the earth's radiation budget have suggested cloud-related feedback mechanisms to be of tremendous importance for the issue of global change. Thus, there has arisen an urgent need for improvements in the treatment of clouds in GCMS, especially as the clouds relate to radiation. In the present paper, we investigate the effects of introducing pregnostic cloud water into the Los Alamos GCM. The cloud water field, produced by both stratiform and convective condensation, is subject to 3-dimensional advection and vertical diffusion. The cloud water enters the radiation calculations through the long wave emissivity calculations. Results from several sensitivity simulations show that realistic cloud water and precipitation fields can be obtained with the applied method. Comparisons with observations show that the most realistic results are obtained when more sophisticated schemes for moist convection are introduced at the same time. The model's cold bias is reduced and the zonal winds become stronger, due to more realistic tropical convection

  16. System model of a natural circulation integral test facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galvin, Mark R.

    The Department of Nuclear Engineering and Radiation Health Physics (NE/RHP) at Oregon State University (OSU) has been developing an innovative modular reactor plant concept since being initiated with a Department of Energy (DoE) grant in 1999. This concept, the Multi-Application Small Light Water Reactor (MASLWR), is an integral pressurized water reactor (PWR) plant that utilizes natural circulation flow in the primary and employs advanced passive safety features. The OSU MASLWR test facility is an electrically heated integral effects facility, scaled from the MASLWR concept design, that has been previously used to assess the feasibility of the concept design safety approach. To assist in evaluating operational scenarios, a simulation tool that models the test facility and is based on both test facility experimental data and analytical methods has been developed. The tool models both the test facility electric core and a simulated nuclear core, allowing evaluation of a broad spectrum of operational scenarios to identify those scenarios that should be explored experimentally using the test facility or design-quality multi-physics tools. Using the simulation tool, the total cost of experimentation and analysis can be reduced by directing time and resources towards the operational scenarios of interest.

  17. Prognostic cloud water in the Los Alamos general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristjansson, J.E.; Kao, C.Y.J.

    1994-01-01

    Most of today's general circulation models (GCMs) have a greatly simplified treatment of condensation and clouds. Recent observational studies of the earth's radiation budget have suggested cloud-related feedback mechanisms to be of tremendous importance for the issue of global change. Thus, an urgent need for improvements in the treatment of clouds in GCMs has arisen, especially as the clouds relate to radiation. In this paper, we investigate the effects of introducing prognostic cloud water into the Los Alamos GCM. The cloud water field, produced by both stratiform and convective condensation, is subject to 3-dimensional advection and vertical diffusion. The cloud water enters the radiation calculations through the longwave emissivity calculations. Results from several sensitivity simulations show that realistic water and precipitation fields can be obtained with the applied method. Comparisons with observations show that the most realistic results are obtained when more sophisticated schemes for moist convection are introduced at the same time. The model's cold bias is reduced and the zonal winds becomes stronger because of more realistic tropical convection

  18. Meridional overturning circulation: stability and ocean feedbacks in a box model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cimatoribus, A.A.; Drijfhout, S.S.; Dijkstra, H.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073504467

    2014-01-01

    A box model of the inter-hemispheric Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is developed, including a variable pycnocline depth for the tropical and subtropical regions. The circulation is forced by winds over a periodic channel in the south and by freshwater forcing at the surface. The model

  19. The DTU12MDT global mean dynamic topography and ocean circulation model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Per; Andersen, Ole B.

    2013-01-01

    The Gravity and Ocean Circulation Experiment - GOCE satellite mission measure the Earth gravity field with unprecedented accuracy leading to substantial improvements in the modelling of the ocean circulation and transport. In this study of the performance of GOCE, a newer gravity model has been...

  20. A Third Note on Ageing in a Library Circulation Model: Applications to Future Use and Relegation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burrell, Quentin L.

    1987-01-01

    Describes a circulation model for academic research libraries which uses the mixed Poisson model, incorporating ageing of library materials, to predict future use of monographs and to suggest weeding procedures based on frequency of circulation. Longitudinal studies are examined and statistical details are appended. (Author/LRW)

  1. A Statistical Evaluation of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: Complexity vs. Simplicity

    OpenAIRE

    Robert K. Kaufmann; David I. Stern

    2004-01-01

    The principal tools used to model future climate change are General Circulation Models which are deterministic high resolution bottom-up models of the global atmosphere-ocean system that require large amounts of supercomputer time to generate results. But are these models a cost-effective way of predicting future climate change at the global level? In this paper we use modern econometric techniques to evaluate the statistical adequacy of three general circulation models (GCMs) by testing thre...

  2. Explicit prediction of ice clouds in general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Martin

    1999-11-01

    Although clouds play extremely important roles in the radiation budget and hydrological cycle of the Earth, there are large quantitative uncertainties in our understanding of their generation, maintenance and decay mechanisms, representing major obstacles in the development of reliable prognostic cloud water schemes for General Circulation Models (GCMs). Recognizing their relative neglect in the past, both observationally and theoretically, this work places special focus on ice clouds. A recent version of the UCLA - University of Utah Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) that includes interactive radiation is used to perform idealized experiments to study ice cloud maintenance and decay mechanisms under various conditions in term of: (1) background static stability, (2) background relative humidity, (3) rate of cloud ice addition over a fixed initial time-period and (4) radiation: daytime, nighttime and no-radiation. Radiation is found to have major effects on the life-time of layer-clouds. Optically thick ice clouds decay significantly slower than expected from pure microphysical crystal fall-out (taucld = 0.9--1.4 h as opposed to no-motion taumicro = 0.5--0.7 h). This is explained by the upward turbulent fluxes of water induced by IR destabilization, which partially balance the downward transport of water by snowfall. Solar radiation further slows the ice-water decay by destruction of the inversion above cloud-top and the resulting upward transport of water. Optically thin ice clouds, on the other hand, may exhibit even longer life-times (>1 day) in the presence of radiational cooling. The resulting saturation mixing ratio reduction provides for a constant cloud ice source. These CRM results are used to develop a prognostic cloud water scheme for the UCLA-GCM. The framework is based on the bulk water phase model of Ose (1993). The model predicts cloud liquid water and cloud ice separately, and which is extended to split the ice phase into suspended cloud ice (predicted

  3. Validation of systems biology models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hasdemir, D.

    2015-01-01

    The paradigm shift from qualitative to quantitative analysis of biological systems brought a substantial number of modeling approaches to the stage of molecular biology research. These include but certainly are not limited to nonlinear kinetic models, static network models and models obtained by the

  4. Feature Extraction for Structural Dynamics Model Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farrar, Charles [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Nishio, Mayuko [Yokohama University; Hemez, Francois [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Stull, Chris [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Park, Gyuhae [Chonnam Univesity; Cornwell, Phil [Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology; Figueiredo, Eloi [Universidade Lusófona; Luscher, D. J. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Worden, Keith [University of Sheffield

    2016-01-13

    As structural dynamics becomes increasingly non-modal, stochastic and nonlinear, finite element model-updating technology must adopt the broader notions of model validation and uncertainty quantification. For example, particular re-sampling procedures must be implemented to propagate uncertainty through a forward calculation, and non-modal features must be defined to analyze nonlinear data sets. The latter topic is the focus of this report, but first, some more general comments regarding the concept of model validation will be discussed.

  5. Model Validation in Ontology Based Transformations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús M. Almendros-Jiménez

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Model Driven Engineering (MDE is an emerging approach of software engineering. MDE emphasizes the construction of models from which the implementation should be derived by applying model transformations. The Ontology Definition Meta-model (ODM has been proposed as a profile for UML models of the Web Ontology Language (OWL. In this context, transformations of UML models can be mapped into ODM/OWL transformations. On the other hand, model validation is a crucial task in model transformation. Meta-modeling permits to give a syntactic structure to source and target models. However, semantic requirements have to be imposed on source and target models. A given transformation will be sound when source and target models fulfill the syntactic and semantic requirements. In this paper, we present an approach for model validation in ODM based transformations. Adopting a logic programming based transformational approach we will show how it is possible to transform and validate models. Properties to be validated range from structural and semantic requirements of models (pre and post conditions to properties of the transformation (invariants. The approach has been applied to a well-known example of model transformation: the Entity-Relationship (ER to Relational Model (RM transformation.

  6. Coupling of river flow and inundation analysis in a distributed water circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshida, T.; Masumoto, T.; Horikawa, N.

    2011-12-01

    , which drains an area of 10,330km2 to the Mekong River. The paddy area in the basin is 23% of the catchment area, of which a significant proportion is in the lower reaches. Thus, the most severe damage is caused to the paddy fields that may be flooded for long periods. Severe and prolonged flooding events can occur if two conditions are simultaneously fulfilled: high flow in tributaries and high water levels in the Mekong River. At the confluence of inundated areas of the Xebanfai and Mekong Rivers, drainage from the inundated area were calculated by differences in the water levels of inundated area and the Mekong River. Daily calculation was carried out from 2004 through 2008. We investigated the performance of the distributed water circulation model by comparing its calculated discharges with 2 observation stations along the Xebanfai River at first. The calculated discharges closely agree with the observed discharges at the stations. In addition, we rigorously validated the model with the maximum inundated area in 2008, which was extracted from the ALOS/PALSAR images. The integration of the inundation/drainage process into the distributed water circulation model enabled us to evaluate the impacts of basin-scale flood events and possible changes in flow regime on agricultural damage.

  7. Numerical model for wind-driven circulation in the Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Bahulayan, N.; Varadachari, V.V.R.

    experiments have shown that when a uniform wind stress in suddenly imposed over the sea surface, a steady circulation is generated after 50 h of numerical integration of model equations. The sensitivity of this model to bathymetry and coastal configuration...

  8. Model validation: Correlation for updating

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Department of Mechanical Engineering, Imperial College of Science, ... If we are unable to obtain a satisfactory degree of correlation between the initial theoretical model and the test data, then it is extremely unlikely that any form of model updating (correcting the model to match the test data) will succeed. Thus, a successful ...

  9. A Three-Box Model of Thermohaline Circulation under the Energy Constraint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shen Yang; Guan Yu-Ping; Liang Chu-Jin; Chen Da-Ke

    2011-01-01

    The driving mechanism of thermohaline circulation is still a controversial topic in physical oceanography. Classic theory is based on Stommel's two-box model under buoyancy constraint. Recently, Guan and Huang proposed a new viewpoint in the framework of energy constraint with a two-box model. We extend it to a three-box model, including the effect of wind-driven circulation. Using this simple model, we further study how ocean mixing impacts on thermohaline circulation under the energy constraint. (geophysics, astronomy, and astrophysics)

  10. Thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic and its simulation with a box model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Averyanova, E. A.; Polonsky, A. B.; Sannikov, V. F.

    2017-05-01

    Features of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation response to periodic, stochastic, and instantaneous forcing are studied using a four-box model. The present-day circulation is shown to be characterized by a stable quasi-periodic oscillatory mode that manifests itself as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The thermohaline catastrophe is unlikely in the modern climate epoch.

  11. Numerical modelling of tidal circulation and studies on salinity distribution in Mandovi and Zuari estuaries

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Manoj, N.T.

    application to Rotterdam Waterway. Geophy. J. Roy. Astro. Soc, 40:1–21, 1975. P. Hamilton. Modelling salinity and circulation for Colombia river estuary. Progress in Oceanography, 25:113–156, 1990. D. V. Hansen and M. Rattray. Gravitational circulation...

  12. Bivariate spatial analysis of temperature and precipitation from general circulation models and observation proxies

    KAUST Repository

    Philbin, R.

    2015-05-22

    This study validates the near-surface temperature and precipitation output from decadal runs of eight atmospheric ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) against observational proxy data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis temperatures and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation data. We model the joint distribution of these two fields with a parsimonious bivariate Matérn spatial covariance model, accounting for the two fields\\' spatial cross-correlation as well as their own smoothnesses. We fit output from each AOGCM (30-year seasonal averages from 1981 to 2010) to a statistical model on each of 21 land regions. Both variance and smoothness values agree for both fields over all latitude bands except southern mid-latitudes. Our results imply that temperature fields have smaller smoothness coefficients than precipitation fields, while both have decreasing smoothness coefficients with increasing latitude. Models predict fields with smaller smoothness coefficients than observational proxy data for the tropics. The estimated spatial cross-correlations of these two fields, however, are quite different for most GCMs in mid-latitudes. Model correlation estimates agree well with those for observational proxy data for Australia, at high northern latitudes across North America, Europe and Asia, as well as across the Sahara, India, and Southeast Asia, but elsewhere, little consistent agreement exists.

  13. Base Flow Model Validation, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The innovation is the systematic "building-block" validation of CFD/turbulence models employing a GUI driven CFD code (RPFM) and existing as well as new data sets to...

  14. Validating EHR clinical models using ontology patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Costa, Catalina; Schulz, Stefan

    2017-12-01

    Clinical models are artefacts that specify how information is structured in electronic health records (EHRs). However, the makeup of clinical models is not guided by any formal constraint beyond a semantically vague information model. We address this gap by advocating ontology design patterns as a mechanism that makes the semantics of clinical models explicit. This paper demonstrates how ontology design patterns can validate existing clinical models using SHACL. Based on the Clinical Information Modelling Initiative (CIMI), we show how ontology patterns detect both modeling and terminology binding errors in CIMI models. SHACL, a W3C constraint language for the validation of RDF graphs, builds on the concept of "Shape", a description of data in terms of expected cardinalities, datatypes and other restrictions. SHACL, as opposed to OWL, subscribes to the Closed World Assumption (CWA) and is therefore more suitable for the validation of clinical models. We have demonstrated the feasibility of the approach by manually describing the correspondences between six CIMI clinical models represented in RDF and two SHACL ontology design patterns. Using a Java-based SHACL implementation, we found at least eleven modeling and binding errors within these CIMI models. This demonstrates the usefulness of ontology design patterns not only as a modeling tool but also as a tool for validation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Multi-year predictability in a coupled general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Power, Scott; Colman, Rob [Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

    2006-02-01

    Multi-year to decadal variability in a 100-year integration of a BMRC coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM) is examined. The fractional contribution made by the decadal component generally increases with depth and latitude away from surface waters in the equatorial Indo-Pacific Ocean. The relative importance of decadal variability is enhanced in off-equatorial ''wings'' in the subtropical eastern Pacific. The model and observations exhibit ''ENSO-like'' decadal patterns. Analytic results are derived, which show that the patterns can, in theory, occur in the absence of any predictability beyond ENSO time-scales. In practice, however, modification to this stochastic view is needed to account for robust differences between ENSO-like decadal patterns and their interannual counterparts. An analysis of variability in the CGCM, a wind-forced shallow water model, and a simple mixed layer model together with existing and new theoretical results are used to improve upon this stochastic paradigm and to provide a new theory for the origin of decadal ENSO-like patterns like the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In this theory, ENSO-driven wind-stress variability forces internal equatorially-trapped Kelvin waves that propagate towards the eastern boundary. Kelvin waves can excite reflected internal westward propagating equatorially-trapped Rossby waves (RWs) and coastally-trapped waves (CTWs). CTWs have no impact on the off-equatorial sub-surface ocean outside the coastal wave guide, whereas the RWs do. If the frequency of the incident wave is too high, then only CTWs are excited. At lower frequencies, both CTWs and RWs can be excited. The lower the frequency, the greater the fraction of energy transmitted to RWs. This lowers the characteristic frequency of variability off the equator relative to its equatorial counterpart. Both the eastern boundary interactions and the accumulation of

  16. Verification and validation for waste disposal models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-07-01

    A set of evaluation criteria has been developed to assess the suitability of current verification and validation techniques for waste disposal methods. A survey of current practices and techniques was undertaken and evaluated using these criteria with the items most relevant to waste disposal models being identified. Recommendations regarding the most suitable verification and validation practices for nuclear waste disposal modelling software have been made

  17. Evidential Model Validation under Epistemic Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Deng

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes evidence theory based methods to both quantify the epistemic uncertainty and validate computational model. Three types of epistemic uncertainty concerning input model data, that is, sparse points, intervals, and probability distributions with uncertain parameters, are considered. Through the proposed methods, the given data will be described as corresponding probability distributions for uncertainty propagation in the computational model, thus, for the model validation. The proposed evidential model validation method is inspired by the idea of Bayesian hypothesis testing and Bayes factor, which compares the model predictions with the observed experimental data so as to assess the predictive capability of the model and help the decision making of model acceptance. Developed by the idea of Bayes factor, the frame of discernment of Dempster-Shafer evidence theory is constituted and the basic probability assignment (BPA is determined. Because the proposed validation method is evidence based, the robustness of the result can be guaranteed, and the most evidence-supported hypothesis about the model testing will be favored by the BPA. The validity of proposed methods is illustrated through a numerical example.

  18. The DTU12MDT global mean dynamic topography and ocean circulation model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Per; Andersen, Ole B.

    2013-01-01

    The Gravity and Ocean Circulation Experiment - GOCE satellite mission measure the Earth gravity field with unprecedented accuracy leading to substantial improvements in the modelling of the ocean circulation and transport. In this study of the performance of GOCE, a newer gravity model has been...... to results obtained using pre-GOCE gravity field models. The results of this study show that geostrophic surface currents associated with the mean circulation have been further improved and that currents having speeds down to 5 cm/s have been recovered....

  19. Exploring the Circulation Dynamics of Mississippi Sound and Bight Using the CONCORDE Synthesis Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, C.; Dinniman, M. S.; Fitzpatrick, P. J.; Lau, Y.; Cambazoglu, M. K.; Parra, S. M.; Hofmann, E. E.; Dzwonkowski, B.; Warner, S. J.; O'Brien, S. J.; Dykstra, S. L.; Wiggert, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    As part of the modeling effort of the GOMRI (Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative)-funded CONCORDE consortium, a high resolution ( 400 m) regional ocean model is implemented for the Mississippi (MS) Sound and Bight. The model is based on the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave Sediment Transport Modeling System (COAWST), with initial and lateral boundary conditions drawn from data assimilative 3-day forecasts of the 1km-resolution Gulf of Mexico Navy Coastal Ocean Model (GOM-NCOM). The model initiates on 01/01/2014 and runs for 3 years. The model results are validated with available remote sensing data and with CONCORDE's moored and ship-based in-situ observations. Results from a three-year simulation (2014-2016) show that ocean circulation and water properties of the MS Sound and Bight are sensitive to meteorological forcing. A low resolution surface forcing, drawn from the North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and a high resolution forcing, called CONCORDE Meteorological Analysis (CMA) ) that resolves the diurnal sea breeze, are used to drive the model to examine the sensitivity of the circulation to surface forcing. The model responses to the low resolution NARR forcing and to the high resolution CMA are compared in detail for the CONCORDE Fall and Spring field campaigns when contemporaneous in situ data are available, with a focus on how simulated exchanges between MS Sound and MS Bight are impacted. In most cases, the model shows higher simulation skill when it is driven by CMA. Freshwater plumes of the MS River, MS Sound and Mobile Bay influence the shelf waters of the MS Bight in terms of material budget and dynamics. Drifters and dye experiments near Mobile Bay demonstrate that material exchanges between Mobile Bay and the Sound, and between the Sound and Bight, are sensitive to the wind strength and direction. A model - data comparison targeting the Mobile Bay plume suggests that under both northerly and southerly wind conditions the model is capable of

  20. A simplified model of nitric oxide emission from a circulating fluidized bed combustor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Talukdar, J.; Basu, P. [Technical University of Nova Scotia, Halifax, NS (Canada)

    1995-10-01

    A simplified mathematical model leading to a closed form of solution is developed for estimation of nitric oxide emission from a coal fired circulating fluidized bed (CFB) furnace. The furnace is divided into two sections: a lower section below and an upper section above the secondary air injection level. Reactions in the cyclone and the return leg are neglected. Furnace dimensions, coal feed rate, coal composition and furnace temperature are inputs to the model which was validated against several pilot scale and commercial units. Experimental results from two pilot plants and two commercial power plants agree with model predictions. A sensitivity analysis was carried out using the model to examine the effect of different operating parameters and coal properties on the overall NO emission from the furnace. It was found that excess air and furnace temperature are most important factors influencing the NO emission level. The primary to secondary air ratio influences the NO emission level reasonably. Properties of coal are other factors which affect the NO emission to a large extent. The model, though it involves some simplification, predicts the overall emission of NO with a level of accuracy accepted in commercial operation. 27 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs.

  1. Model validation: Correlation for updating

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    of refining the theoretical model which will be used for the design optimisation process. There are many different names given to the tasks involved in this refinement. .... slightly from the ideal line but in a systematic rather than a random fashion as this situation suggests that there is a specific characteristic responsible for the ...

  2. Validating the passenger traffic model for Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgård, Christian Hansen; VUK, Goran

    2006-01-01

    The paper presents a comprehensive validation procedure for the passenger traffic model for Copenhagen based on external data from the Danish national travel survey and traffic counts. The model was validated for the years 2000 to 2004, with 2004 being of particular interest because the Copenhagen...... matched the observed traffic better than those of the transit assignment model. With respect to the metro forecasts, the model over-predicts metro passenger flows by 10% to 50%. The wide range of findings from the project resulted in two actions. First, a project was started in January 2005 to upgrade...

  3. Computer simulated modeling of healthy and diseased right ventricular and pulmonary circulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Jody; Rinehart, Joseph B

    2018-01-12

    We have previously developed a simulated cardiovascular physiology model for in-silico testing and validation of novel closed-loop controllers. To date, a detailed model of the right heart and pulmonary circulation was not needed, as previous controllers were not intended for use in patients with cardiac or pulmonary pathology. With new development of controllers for vasopressors, and looking forward, for combined vasopressor-fluid controllers, modeling of right-sided and pulmonary pathology is now relevant to further in-silico validation, so we aimed to expand our existing simulation platform to include these elements. Our hypothesis was that the completed platform could be tuned and stabilized such that the distributions of a randomized sample of simulated patients' baseline characteristics would be similar to reported population values. Our secondary outcomes were to further test the system in representing acute right heart failure and pulmonary artery hypertension. After development and tuning of the right-sided circulation, the model was validated against clinical data from multiple previously published articles. The model was considered 'tuned' when 100% of generated randomized patients converged to stability (steady, physiologically-plausible compartmental volumes, flows, and pressures) and 'valid' when the means for the model data in each health condition were contained within the standard deviations for the published data for the condition. A fully described right heart and pulmonary circulation model including non-linear pressure/volume relationships and pressure dependent flows was created over a 6-month span. The model was successfully tuned such that 100% of simulated patients converged into a steady state within 30 s. Simulation results in the healthy state for central venous volume (3350 ± 132 ml) pulmonary blood volume (405 ± 39 ml), pulmonary artery pressures (systolic 20.8 ± 4.1 mmHg and diastolic 9.4 ± 1.8 mmHg), left

  4. A multi-level adaptation model of circulation for the western Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Shaji, C.; Bahulayan, N.; Dube, S.K.; Rao, A.D.

    on the observed circulation in the western tropical Indian Ocean. The model consists of equations of motion and continuity, sea surface topography, equations of state and temperature, and salinity diffusion equations. While the sea surface topography equation...

  5. Simulation of the Bohai Sea Circulation and Thermohaline Structure Using COHERENS Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Obino, Rodrigo

    2002-01-01

    The goals of this work are to simulate the Bohai Sea circulation and thermohaline structure and to Investigate the physical mechanisms using the Coupled Hydrodynamical-Ecological Model for Regional and Shelf Seas (COHERENS...

  6. THOR: A NEW AND FLEXIBLE GLOBAL CIRCULATION MODEL TO EXPLORE PLANETARY ATMOSPHERES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mendonça, João M.; Grimm, Simon L.; Grosheintz, Luc; Heng, Kevin, E-mail: joao.mendonca@csh.unibe.ch, E-mail: kevin.heng@csh.unibe.ch [University of Bern, Center for Space and Habitability, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012, Bern (Switzerland)

    2016-10-01

    We have designed and developed, from scratch, a global circulation model (GCM) named THOR that solves the three-dimensional nonhydrostatic Euler equations. Our general approach lifts the commonly used assumptions of a shallow atmosphere and hydrostatic equilibrium. We solve the “pole problem” (where converging meridians on a sphere lead to increasingly smaller time steps near the poles) by implementing an icosahedral grid. Irregularities in the grid, which lead to grid imprinting, are smoothed using the “spring dynamics” technique. We validate our implementation of spring dynamics by examining calculations of the divergence and gradient of test functions. To prevent the computational time step from being bottlenecked by having to resolve sound waves, we implement a split-explicit method together with a horizontally explicit and vertically implicit integration. We validate our GCM by reproducing the Earth and hot-Jupiter-like benchmark tests. THOR was designed to run on graphics processing units (GPUs), which allows for physics modules (radiative transfer, clouds, chemistry) to be added in the future, and is part of the open-source Exoclimes Simulation Platform (www.exoclime.org).

  7. BIOMOVS: an international model validation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haegg, C.; Johansson, G.

    1988-01-01

    BIOMOVS (BIOspheric MOdel Validation Study) is an international study where models used for describing the distribution of radioactive and nonradioactive trace substances in terrestrial and aquatic environments are compared and tested. The main objectives of the study are to compare and test the accuracy of predictions between such models, explain differences in these predictions, recommend priorities for future research concerning the improvement of the accuracy of model predictions and act as a forum for the exchange of ideas, experience and information. (author)

  8. BIOMOVS: An international model validation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haegg, C.; Johansson, G.

    1987-01-01

    BIOMOVS (BIOspheric MOdel Validation Study) is an international study where models used for describing the distribution of radioactive and nonradioactive trace substances in terrestrial and aquatic environments are compared and tested. The main objectives of the study are to compare and test the accuracy of predictions between such models, explain differences in these predictions, recommend priorities for future research concerning the improvement of the accuracy of model predictions and act as a forum for the exchange of ideas, experience and information. (orig.)

  9. Stochastic characterization of regional circulation patterns for climate model diagnosis and estimation of local precipitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zorita, E.; Hughes, J.P.

    1993-01-01

    Two statistical approaches for linking large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and daily local rainfall are described and applied to several GCM (general circulation model) climate simulations. The ultimate objective is to simulate local precipitation associated with alternative climates. The index stations are located near the West and East North American coasts. The first method is based on CART analysis (Classification and Regression trees). It finds the classification of observed daily SLR (sea level pressure) fields in weather types that are most strongly associated with the presence/absence of rainfall in a set of index stations. The best results were obtained for winter rainfall for the West Coast, where a set of physically reasonable weather types could be identified, whereas for the East Coast the rainfall process seemed to be spatially less coherent. The GCM simulations were validated against observations in terms of probability of occurrence and survival time of these weather states. Some discrepancies werefound but there was no systematic bias, indicating that this behavior depends on the particular dynamics of each model. This classification method was then used for the generation of daily rainfall time series from the daily SLP fields from historical observation and from the GCM simulations. Whereas the mean rainfall and probability distributions were rather well replicated, the simulated dry periods were in all cases shorter than in the rainfall observations. The second rainfall generator is based on the analog method and uses information on the evolution of the SLP field in several previous days. It was found to perform reasonably well, although some downward bias in the simulated rainfall persistence was still present. Rainfall changes in a 2xCO 2 climate were investigated by applying both methods to the output of a greenhouse-gas experiment. The simulated precipitation changes were small. (orig.)

  10. On validation of multibody musculoskeletal models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Morten Enemark; de Zee, Mark; Andersen, Michael Skipper

    2012-01-01

    This paper reviews the opportunities to validate multibody musculoskeletal models in view of the current transition of musculoskeletal modelling from a research topic to a practical simulation tool in product design, healthcare and other important applications. This transition creates a new need...

  11. Validation of models with proportional bias

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvador Medina-Peralta

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. This paper presents extensions to Freese’s statistical method for model-validation when proportional bias (PB is present in the predictions. The method is illustrated with data from a model that simulates grassland growth. Materials and methods. The extensions to validate models with PB were: the maximum anticipated error for the original proposal, hypothesis testing, and the maximum anticipated error for the alternative proposal, and the confidence interval for a quantile of error distribution. Results. The tested model had PB, which once removed, and with a confidence level of 95%, the magnitude of error does not surpass 1225.564 kg ha-1. Therefore, the validated model can be used to predict grassland growth. However, it would require a fit of its structure based on the presence of PB. Conclusions. The extensions presented to validate models with PB are applied without modification in the model structure. Once PB is corrected, the confidence interval for the quantile 1-α of the error distribution enables a higher bound for the magnitude of the prediction error and it can be used to evaluate the evolution of the model for a system prediction.

  12. Model performance analysis and model validation in logistic regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosa Arboretti Giancristofaro

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a new model validation procedure for a logistic regression model is presented. At first, we illustrate a brief review of different techniques of model validation. Next, we define a number of properties required for a model to be considered "good", and a number of quantitative performance measures. Lastly, we describe a methodology for the assessment of the performance of a given model by using an example taken from a management study.

  13. Validation of the IMS CORE Diabetes Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEwan, Phil; Foos, Volker; Palmer, James L; Lamotte, Mark; Lloyd, Adam; Grant, David

    2014-09-01

    The IMS CORE Diabetes Model (CDM) is a widely published and validated simulation model applied in both type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) analyses. Validation to external studies is an important part of demonstrating model credibility. Because the CDM is widely used to estimate long-term clinical outcomes in diabetes patients, the objective of this analysis was to validate the CDM to contemporary outcomes studies, including those with long-term follow-up periods. A total of 112 validation simulations were performed, stratified by study follow-up duration. For long-term results (≥15-year follow-up), simulation cohorts representing baseline Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT) and United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) cohorts were generated and intensive and conventional treatment arms were defined in the CDM. Predicted versus observed macrovascular and microvascular complications and all-cause mortality were assessed using the coefficient of determination (R(2)) goodness-of-fit measure. Across all validation studies, the CDM simulations produced an R(2) statistic of 0.90. For validation studies with a follow-up duration of less than 15 years, R(2) values of 0.90 and 0.88 were achieved for T1DM and T2DM respectively. In T1DM, validating against 30-year outcomes data (DCCT) resulted in an R(2) of 0.72. In T2DM, validating against 20-year outcomes data (UKPDS) resulted in an R(2) of 0.92. This analysis supports the CDM as a credible tool for predicting the absolute number of clinical events in DCCT- and UKPDS-like populations. With increasing incidence of diabetes worldwide, the CDM is particularly important for health care decision makers, for whom the robust evaluation of health care policies is essential. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Exploring the Impact of Students' Learning Approach on Collaborative Group Modeling of Blood Circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Shinyoung; Kang, Eunhee; Kim, Heui-Baik

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed to explore the effect on group dynamics of statements associated with deep learning approaches (DLA) and their contribution to cognitive collaboration and model development during group modeling of blood circulation. A group was selected for an in-depth analysis of collaborative group modeling. This group constructed a model in a…

  15. Aluminium in an ocean general circulation model compared with the West Atlantic Geotraces cruises

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Hulten, M. M. P.; Sterl, A.; Tagliabue, A.; Dutay, J. -C.; Gehlen, M.; de Baar, H. J. W.; Middag, R.

    2013-01-01

    A model of aluminium has been developed and implemented in an Ocean General Circulation Model (NEMO-PISCES). In the model, aluminium enters the ocean by means of dust deposition. The internal oceanic processes are described by advection, mixing and reversible scavenging. The model has been evaluated

  16. A discussion on validation of hydrogeological models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrera, J.; Mousavi, S.F.; Usunoff, E.J.; Sanchez-Vila, X.; Galarza, G.

    1993-01-01

    Groundwater flow and solute transport are often driven by heterogeneities that elude easy identification. It is also difficult to select and describe the physico-chemical processes controlling solute behaviour. As a result, definition of a conceptual model involves numerous assumptions both on the selection of processes and on the representation of their spatial variability. Validating a numerical model by comparing its predictions with actual measurements may not be sufficient for evaluating whether or not it provides a good representation of 'reality'. Predictions will be close to measurements, regardless of model validity, if these are taken from experiments that stress well-calibrated model modes. On the other hand, predictions will be far from measurements when model parameters are very uncertain, even if the model is indeed a very good representation of the real system. Hence, we contend that 'classical' validation of hydrogeological models is not possible. Rather, models should be viewed as theories about the real system. We propose to follow a rigorous modeling approach in which different sources of uncertainty are explicitly recognized. The application of one such approach is illustrated by modeling a laboratory uranium tracer test performed on fresh granite, which was used as Test Case 1b in INTRAVAL. (author)

  17. Structural system identification: Structural dynamics model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Red-Horse, J.R.

    1997-04-01

    Structural system identification is concerned with the development of systematic procedures and tools for developing predictive analytical models based on a physical structure`s dynamic response characteristics. It is a multidisciplinary process that involves the ability (1) to define high fidelity physics-based analysis models, (2) to acquire accurate test-derived information for physical specimens using diagnostic experiments, (3) to validate the numerical simulation model by reconciling differences that inevitably exist between the analysis model and the experimental data, and (4) to quantify uncertainties in the final system models and subsequent numerical simulations. The goal of this project was to develop structural system identification techniques and software suitable for both research and production applications in code and model validation.

  18. In vitro validation of an ultra-sensitive scanning fluorescence microscope for analysis of Circulating Tumor Cells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hillig, Thore; Nygaard, Ann-Britt; Nekiunaite, Laura

    2014-01-01

    Analysis of circulating tumor cells (CTC) holds promise of providing liquid biopsies from patients with cancer. However, current methods include enrichment procedures. We present a method (CytoTrack), where CTC from 7.5 mL of blood is stained, analyzed and counted by a scanning fluorescence...... microscope. The method was validated by breast cancer cells (MCF-7) spiked in blood from healthy donors. The number of cells spiked in each blood sample was exactly determined by cell sorter and performed in three series of three samples spiked with 10, 33 or 100 cells in addition with three control samples...... detect breast cancer cells in spiking experiments and should be tested on blood samples from breast cancer patients. The method could benefit from automation that could reduce the CV%, and further optimization of the procedure to increase the recovery....

  19. Global precipitation measurements for validating climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapiador, F. J.; Navarro, A.; Levizzani, V.; García-Ortega, E.; Huffman, G. J.; Kidd, C.; Kucera, P. A.; Kummerow, C. D.; Masunaga, H.; Petersen, W. A.; Roca, R.; Sánchez, J.-L.; Tao, W.-K.; Turk, F. J.

    2017-11-01

    The advent of global precipitation data sets with increasing temporal span has made it possible to use them for validating climate models. In order to fulfill the requirement of global coverage, existing products integrate satellite-derived retrievals from many sensors with direct ground observations (gauges, disdrometers, radars), which are used as reference for the satellites. While the resulting product can be deemed as the best-available source of quality validation data, awareness of the limitations of such data sets is important to avoid extracting wrong or unsubstantiated conclusions when assessing climate model abilities. This paper provides guidance on the use of precipitation data sets for climate research, including model validation and verification for improving physical parameterizations. The strengths and limitations of the data sets for climate modeling applications are presented, and a protocol for quality assurance of both observational databases and models is discussed. The paper helps elaborating the recent IPCC AR5 acknowledgment of large observational uncertainties in precipitation observations for climate model validation.

  20. Analysis and Modeling of Circulating Current in Two Parallel-Connected Inverters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maheshwari, Ram Krishan; Gohil, Ghanshyamsinh Vijaysinh; Bede, Lorand

    2015-01-01

    Parallel-connected inverters are gaining attention for high power applications because of the limited power handling capability of the power modules. Moreover, the parallel-connected inverters may have low total harmonic distortion of the ac current if they are operated with the interleaved pulse...... this model, the circulating current between two parallel-connected inverters is analysed in this study. The peak and root mean square (rms) values of the normalised circulating current are calculated for different PWM methods, which makes this analysis a valuable tool to design a filter for the circulating...

  1. Rodent heart failure models do not reflect the human circulating microRNA signature in heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vegter, Eline L; Ovchinnikova, Ekaterina S; Silljé, Herman H W; Meems, Laura M G; van der Pol, Atze; van der Velde, A Rogier; Berezikov, Eugene; Voors, Adriaan A; de Boer, Rudolf A; van der Meer, Peter

    2017-01-01

    We recently identified a set of plasma microRNAs (miRNAs) that are downregulated in patients with heart failure in comparison with control subjects. To better understand their meaning and function, we sought to validate these circulating miRNAs in 3 different well-established rat and mouse heart failure models, and correlated the miRNAs to parameters of cardiac function. The previously identified let-7i-5p, miR-16-5p, miR-18a-5p, miR-26b-5p, miR-27a-3p, miR-30e-5p, miR-199a-3p, miR-223-3p, miR-423-3p, miR-423-5p and miR-652-3p were measured by means of quantitative real time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) in plasma samples of 8 homozygous TGR(mREN2)27 (Ren2) transgenic rats and 8 (control) Sprague-Dawley rats, 6 mice with angiotensin II-induced heart failure (AngII) and 6 control mice, and 8 mice with ischemic heart failure and 6 controls. Circulating miRNA levels were compared between the heart failure animals and healthy controls. Ren2 rats, AngII mice and mice with ischemic heart failure showed clear signs of heart failure, exemplified by increased left ventricular and lung weights, elevated end-diastolic left ventricular pressures, increased expression of cardiac stress markers and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction. All miRNAs were detectable in plasma from rats and mice. No significant differences were observed between the circulating miRNAs in heart failure animals when compared to the healthy controls (all P>0.05) and no robust associations with cardiac function could be found. The previous observation that miRNAs circulate in lower levels in human patients with heart failure could not be validated in well-established rat and mouse heart failure models. These results question the translation of data on human circulating miRNA levels to experimental models, and vice versa the validity of experimental miRNA data for human heart failure.

  2. Interpretation of cloud-climate feedback as produced by 14 atmospheric general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cess, R. D.; Potter, G. L.; Ghan, S. J.; Blanchet, J. P.; Boer, G. J.

    1989-01-01

    Understanding the cause of differences among general circulation model projections of carbon dioxide-induced climatic change is a necessary step toward improving the models. An intercomparison of 14 atmospheric general circulation models, for which sea surface temperature perturbations were used as a surrogate climate change, showed that there was a roughly threefold variation in global climate sensitivity. Most of this variation is attributable to differences in the models' depictions of cloud-climate feedback, a result that emphasizes the need for improvements in the treatment of clouds in these models if they are ultimately to be used as climatic predictors.

  3. Validation, Optimization and Simulation of a Solar Thermoelectric Generator Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madkhali, Hadi Ali; Hamil, Ali; Lee, HoSung

    2017-12-01

    This study explores thermoelectrics as a viable option for small-scale solar thermal applications. Thermoelectric technology is based on the Seebeck effect, which states that a voltage is induced when a temperature gradient is applied to the junctions of two differing materials. This research proposes to analyze, validate, simulate, and optimize a prototype solar thermoelectric generator (STEG) model in order to increase efficiency. The intent is to further develop STEGs as a viable and productive energy source that limits pollution and reduces the cost of energy production. An empirical study (Kraemer et al. in Nat Mater 10:532, 2011) on the solar thermoelectric generator reported a high efficiency performance of 4.6%. The system had a vacuum glass enclosure, a flat panel (absorber), thermoelectric generator and water circulation for the cold side. The theoretical and numerical approach of this current study validated the experimental results from Kraemer's study to a high degree. The numerical simulation process utilizes a two-stage approach in ANSYS software for Fluent and Thermal-Electric Systems. The solar load model technique uses solar radiation under AM 1.5G conditions in Fluent. This analytical model applies Dr. Ho Sung Lee's theory of optimal design to improve the performance of the STEG system by using dimensionless parameters. Applying this theory, using two cover glasses and radiation shields, the STEG model can achieve a highest efficiency of 7%.

  4. A global mean ocean circulation estimation using goce gravity models - the DTU12MDT mean dynamic topography model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Per; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2012-01-01

    The Gravity and Ocean Circulation Experiment - GOCE satellite mission measure the Earth gravity field with unprecedented accuracy leading to substantial improvements in the modelling of the ocean circulation and transport. In this study of the performance of GOCE, a newer gravity model have been...... have been improved significantly compared to results obtained using pre-GOCE gravity field models. The results of this study show that geostrophic surface currents associated with the mean circulation have been further improved and that currents having speeds down to 5 cm/s have been recovered....

  5. ESTIMATING THE DEEP SOLAR MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION USING MAGNETIC OBSERVATIONS AND A DYNAMO MODEL: A VARIATIONAL APPROACH

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hung, Ching Pui; Jouve, Laurène; Brun, Allan Sacha [Laboratoire AIM Paris-Saclay, CEA/IRFU Université Paris-Diderot CNRS/INSU, F-91191 Gif-Sur-Yvette (France); Fournier, Alexandre [Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Université Paris Diderot UMR 7154 CNRS, F-75005 Paris (France); Talagrand, Olivier [Laboratoire de météorologie dynamique, UMR 8539, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris Cedex 05 (France)

    2015-12-01

    We show how magnetic observations of the Sun can be used in conjunction with an axisymmetric flux-transport solar dynamo model in order to estimate the large-scale meridional circulation throughout the convection zone. Our innovative approach rests on variational data assimilation, whereby the distance between predictions and observations (measured by an objective function) is iteratively minimized by means of an optimization algorithm seeking the meridional flow that best accounts for the data. The minimization is performed using a quasi-Newton technique, which requires knowledge of the sensitivity of the objective function to the meridional flow. That sensitivity is efficiently computed via the integration of the adjoint flux-transport dynamo model. Closed-loop (also known as twin) experiments using synthetic data demonstrate the validity and accuracy of this technique for a variety of meridional flow configurations, ranging from unicellular and equatorially symmetric to multicellular and equatorially asymmetric. In this well-controlled synthetic context, we perform a systematic study of the behavior of our variational approach under different observational configurations by varying their spatial density, temporal density, and noise level, as well as the width of the assimilation window. We find that the method is remarkably robust, leading in most cases to a recovery of the true meridional flow to within better than 1%. These encouraging results are a first step toward using this technique to (i) better constrain the physical processes occurring inside the Sun and (ii) better predict solar activity on decadal timescales.

  6. Coastal circulation off Ratnagiri, west coast of India during monsoon seasons: a numerical model study.

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Samiksha, S.V.; Sharif, J.; Vethamony, P.

    Present study is the coastal circulation modelling off Ratnagiri under the influence of winds and tides. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model MIKE 21HD has been used to simulate tides and currents, and model results are in a good agreement...

  7. Idealised modelling of ocean circulation driven by conductive and hydrothermal fluxes at the seabed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Jowan M.; Morales Maqueda, Miguel A.; Polton, Jeff A.; Megann, Alex P.

    2018-02-01

    Geothermal heating is increasingly recognised as an important factor affecting ocean circulation, with modelling studies suggesting that this heat source could lead to first-order changes in the formation rate of Antarctic Bottom Water, as well as a significant warming effect in the abyssal ocean. Where it has been represented in numerical models, however, the geothermal heat flux into the ocean is generally treated as an entirely conductive flux, despite an estimated one third of the global geothermal flux being introduced to the ocean via hydrothermal sources. A modelling study is presented which investigates the sensitivity of the geothermally forced circulation to the way heat is supplied to the abyssal ocean. An analytical two-dimensional model of the circulation is described, which demonstrates the effects of a volume flux through the ocean bed. A simulation using the NEMO numerical general circulation model in an idealised domain is then used to partition a heat flux between conductive and hydrothermal sources and explicitly test the sensitivity of the circulation to the formulation of the abyssal heat flux. Our simulations suggest that representing the hydrothermal flux as a mass exchange indeed changes the heat distribution in the abyssal ocean, increasing the advective heat transport from the abyss by up to 35% compared to conductive heat sources. Consequently, we suggest that the inclusion of hydrothermal fluxes can be an important addition to course-resolution ocean models.

  8. Validation of Hadronic Models in GEANT4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koi, Tatsumi; Wright, Dennis H.; /SLAC; Folger, Gunter; Ivanchenko, Vladimir; Kossov, Mikhail; Starkov, Nikolai; /CERN; Heikkinen, Aatos; /Helsinki Inst. of Phys.; Truscott,; Lei, Fan; /QinetiQ; Wellisch, Hans-Peter

    2007-09-26

    Geant4 is a software toolkit for the simulation of the passage of particles through matter. It has abundant hadronic models from thermal neutron interactions to ultra relativistic hadrons. An overview of validations in Geant4 hadronic physics is presented based on thin target measurements. In most cases, good agreement is available between Monte Carlo prediction and experimental data; however, several problems have been detected which require some improvement in the models.

  9. A long term model of circulation. [human body

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, R. J.

    1974-01-01

    A quantitative approach to modeling human physiological function, with a view toward ultimate application to long duration space flight experiments, was undertaken. Data was obtained on the effect of weightlessness on certain aspects of human physiological function during 1-3 month periods. Modifications in the Guyton model are reviewed. Design considerations for bilateral interface models are discussed. Construction of a functioning whole body model was studied, as well as the testing of the model versus available data.

  10. Sampling related issues in pod-based model reduction of simplified circulating fluidised bed combustor model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bizon Katarzyna

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Over the last decades the method of proper orthogonal decomposition (POD has been successfully employed for reduced order modelling (ROM in many applications, including distributed parameter models of chemical reactors. Nevertheless, there are still a number of issues that need further investigation. Among them, the policy of the collection of representative ensemble of experimental or simulation data, being a starting and perhaps most crucial point of the POD-based model reduction procedure. This paper summarises the theoretical background of the POD method and briefly discusses the sampling issue. Next, the reduction procedure is applied to an idealised model of circulating fluidised bed combustor (CFBC. Results obtained confirm that a proper choice of the sampling strategy is essential for the modes convergence however, even low number of observations can be sufficient for the determination of the faithful dynamical ROM.

  11. Understanding variability of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation in CORE-II models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downes, S. M.; Spence, P.; Hogg, A. M.

    2018-03-01

    The current generation of climate models exhibit a large spread in the steady-state and projected Southern Ocean upper and lower overturning circulation, with mechanisms for deep ocean variability remaining less well understood. Here, common Southern Ocean metrics in twelve models from the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiment Phase II (CORE-II) are assessed over a 60 year period. Specifically, stratification, surface buoyancy fluxes, and eddies are linked to the magnitude of the strengthening trend in the upper overturning circulation, and a decreasing trend in the lower overturning circulation across the CORE-II models. The models evolve similarly in the upper 1 km and the deep ocean, with an almost equivalent poleward intensification trend in the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds. However, the models differ substantially in their eddy parameterisation and surface buoyancy fluxes. In general, models with a larger heat-driven water mass transformation where deep waters upwell at the surface ( ∼ 55°S) transport warmer waters into intermediate depths, thus weakening the stratification in the upper 2 km. Models with a weak eddy induced overturning and a warm bias in the intermediate waters are more likely to exhibit larger increases in the upper overturning circulation, and more significant weakening of the lower overturning circulation. We find the opposite holds for a cool model bias in intermediate depths, combined with a more complex 3D eddy parameterisation that acts to reduce isopycnal slope. In summary, the Southern Ocean overturning circulation decadal trends in the coarse resolution CORE-II models are governed by biases in surface buoyancy fluxes and the ocean density field, and the configuration of the eddy parameterisation.

  12. Calibration and validation of rockfall models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frattini, Paolo; Valagussa, Andrea; Zenoni, Stefania; Crosta, Giovanni B.

    2013-04-01

    Calibrating and validating landslide models is extremely difficult due to the particular characteristic of landslides: limited recurrence in time, relatively low frequency of the events, short durability of post-event traces, poor availability of continuous monitoring data, especially for small landslide and rockfalls. For this reason, most of the rockfall models presented in literature completely lack calibration and validation of the results. In this contribution, we explore different strategies for rockfall model calibration and validation starting from both an historical event and a full-scale field test. The event occurred in 2012 in Courmayeur (Western Alps, Italy), and caused serious damages to quarrying facilities. This event has been studied soon after the occurrence through a field campaign aimed at mapping the blocks arrested along the slope, the shape and location of the detachment area, and the traces of scars associated to impacts of blocks on the slope. The full-scale field test was performed by Geovert Ltd in the Christchurch area (New Zealand) after the 2011 earthquake. During the test, a number of large blocks have been mobilized from the upper part of the slope and filmed with high velocity cameras from different viewpoints. The movies of each released block were analysed to identify the block shape, the propagation path, the location of impacts, the height of the trajectory and the velocity of the block along the path. Both calibration and validation of rockfall models should be based on the optimization of the agreement between the actual trajectories or location of arrested blocks and the simulated ones. A measure that describe this agreement is therefore needed. For calibration purpose, this measure should simple enough to allow trial and error repetitions of the model for parameter optimization. In this contribution we explore different calibration/validation measures: (1) the percentage of simulated blocks arresting within a buffer of the

  13. An Intercomparison of the Dynamical Cores of Global Atmospheric Circulation Models for Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

    1998-01-01

    This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. The focus of this JRI has been to evaluate the dynamical 'cores' of two global atmospheric circulation models for Mars that are in operation at the NASA Ames Research Center. The two global circulation models in use are fundamentally different: one uses spherical harmonics in its horizontal representation of field variables; the other uses finite differences on a uniform longitude-latitude grid. Several simulations have been conducted to assess how the dynamical processors of each of these circulation models perform using identical 'simple physics' parameterizations. A variety of climate statistics (e.g., time-mean flows and eddy fields) have been compared for realistic solstitial mean basic states. Results of this research have demonstrated that the two Mars circulation models with completely different spatial representations and discretizations produce rather similar circulation statistics for first-order meteorological fields, suggestive of a tendency for convergence of numerical solutions. Second and higher-order fields can, however, vary significantly between the two models.

  14. Modeling of Natural Self-Pressurized Circulation Circuits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zanocco, Pablo; Gimenez, Marcelo; Delmastro, Dario

    2003-01-01

    In this work, HUARPE code models for self-pressurized two-phase natural convection systems are improved.A drift-flux model is included, allowing the modeling of the relative velocity between phases.The model of steam dome structures is improved, with a thermal resistance scheme, in order to model the material thermal conductivity.This allows improving thermal losses modeling and structures dynamic.'Shape functions' are implemented based on analytic solutions for pressure derivative and density in each node, which allows less diffusive solving schemes, more appropriate for analyzing cases involving density waves phenomena.Finally, pressure evolutions during a pressurization transient are analyzed, comparing the new models and the previous version results.These results are also checked against RELAP code ones, obtained with different dome nodalizations. Moreover, modeling problems are analyzed for each case

  15. A methodology for PSA model validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unwin, S.D.

    1995-09-01

    This document reports Phase 2 of work undertaken by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) in support of the Atomic Energy Control Board's Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) review. A methodology is presented for the systematic review and evaluation of a PSA model. These methods are intended to support consideration of the following question: To within the scope and depth of modeling resolution of a PSA study, is the resultant model a complete and accurate representation of the subject plant? This question was identified as a key PSA validation issue in SAIC's Phase 1 project. The validation methods are based on a model transformation process devised to enhance the transparency of the modeling assumptions. Through conversion to a 'success-oriented' framework, a closer correspondence to plant design and operational specifications is achieved. This can both enhance the scrutability of the model by plant personnel, and provide an alternative perspective on the model that may assist in the identification of deficiencies. The model transformation process is defined and applied to fault trees documented in the Darlington Probabilistic Safety Evaluation. A tentative real-time process is outlined for implementation and documentation of a PSA review based on the proposed methods. (author). 11 refs., 9 tabs., 30 refs

  16. Paleoclimate validation of a numerical climate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schelling, F.J.; Church, H.W.; Zak, B.D.; Thompson, S.L.

    1994-01-01

    An analysis planned to validate regional climate model results for a past climate state at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, against paleoclimate evidence for the period is described. This analysis, which will use the GENESIS model of global climate nested with the RegCM2 regional climate model, is part of a larger study for DOE's Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project that is evaluating the impacts of long term future climate change on performance of the potential high level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. The planned analysis and anticipated results are presented

  17. Validation of the STAFF-5 computer model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fletcher, J.F.; Fields, S.R.

    1981-04-01

    STAFF-5 is a dynamic heat-transfer-fluid-flow stress model designed for computerized prediction of the temperature-stress performance of spent LWR fuel assemblies under storage/disposal conditions. Validation of the temperature calculating abilities of this model was performed by comparing temperature calculations under specified conditions to experimental data from the Engine Maintenance and Dissassembly (EMAD) Fuel Temperature Test Facility and to calculations performed by Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) using the HYDRA-1 model. The comparisons confirmed the ability of STAFF-5 to calculate representative fuel temperatures over a considerable range of conditions, as a first step in the evaluation and prediction of fuel temperature-stress performance

  18. Model of the coronary circulation based on pressure dependence of coronary resistance and compliance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruinsma, P.; Arts, T.; Dankelman, J.; Spaan, J. A.

    1988-01-01

    The effect of pressure-dependent changes in vascular volume, resistance and capacitance in the coronary micro-circulation, has been studied by a distributed mathematical model of the coronary micro-vasculature in the left ventricular wall. The model does not include regulation of coronary blood flow

  19. A Fully Implicit Model of the Three-Dimensional Thermohaline Ocean Circulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkstra, Henk A.; Oksuzoglu, Hakan; Wubs, Fred. W.; Botta, Eugen F.F.

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, a fully implicit numerical model of the three-dimensional thermohaline ocean circulation is presented. With this numerical model it is possible to follow branches of steady states in parameter space and monitor their linear stability. Also, transient flows can be computed allowing

  20. SPR Hydrostatic Column Model Verification and Validation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bettin, Giorgia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lord, David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Rudeen, David Keith [Gram, Inc. Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-10-01

    A Hydrostatic Column Model (HCM) was developed to help differentiate between normal "tight" well behavior and small-leak behavior under nitrogen for testing the pressure integrity of crude oil storage wells at the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This effort was motivated by steady, yet distinct, pressure behavior of a series of Big Hill caverns that have been placed under nitrogen for extended period of time. This report describes the HCM model, its functional requirements, the model structure and the verification and validation process. Different modes of operation are also described, which illustrate how the software can be used to model extended nitrogen monitoring and Mechanical Integrity Tests by predicting wellhead pressures along with nitrogen interface movements. Model verification has shown that the program runs correctly and it is implemented as intended. The cavern BH101 long term nitrogen test was used to validate the model which showed very good agreement with measured data. This supports the claim that the model is, in fact, capturing the relevant physical phenomena and can be used to make accurate predictions of both wellhead pressure and interface movements.

  1. The response of Mediterranean thermohaline circulation to climate change: a minimal model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Th. Meijer

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Physics-based understanding of the effects of paleoclimate and paleogeography on the thermohaline circulation of the Mediterranean Sea requires an ocean model capable of long integrations and involving a minimum of assumptions about the atmospheric forcing. Here we examine the sensitivity of the deep circulation in the eastern Mediterranean basin to changes in atmospheric forcing, considered a key factor in the deposition of organic-rich sediments (sapropels. To this extent we explore the setup of an ocean general circulation model (MOMA with realistic (present-day bathymetry and highly idealized forcing. The model proves able to qualitatively capture some important features of the large-scale overturning circulation, in particular for the eastern basin. The response to (i a reduction in the imposed meridional temperature gradient, or (ii a reduction in net evaporation, proves to be non-linear and, under certain conditions, of transient nature. Consistent with previous model studies, but now based on a minimum of assumptions, we find that a reduction in net evaporation (such as due to an increase in freshwater input may halt the deep overturning circulation. The ability to perform long model integrations allows us to add the insight that, in order to have the conditions favourable for sapropel formation persist, we must also assume that the vertical mixing of water properties was reduced. The "minimal" model here presented opens the way to experiments in which one truly follows the basin circulation into, or out of, the period of sapropel formation and where forcing conditions are continously adjusted to the precession cycle.

  2. COBRA-WC model and predictions for a fast-reactor natural-circulation transient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    George, T.L.; Basehore, K.L.; Prather, W.A.

    1980-01-01

    The COBRA-WC (Whole Core) code has been used to predict the core-wide coolant and rod temperature distribution in a liquid metal fast reactor during the early part (first 220 seconds) of a natural circulation transient. Approximately one-sixth of the core was modeled including bypass flows and the pressure losses above and below the core region. Detailed temperature and flow distributions were obtained for the two test fuel assemblies. The COBRA-WC model, the approach, and predictions of core-wide transient coolant and rod temperatures during a natural circulation transient are presented in this paper

  3. MARS-LMR modeling for the post-test analysis of Phenix End-of-Life natural circulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Hae Yong; Ha, Kwi Seok; Chang, Won Pyo; Lee, Kwi Lim

    2011-01-01

    For a successful design and analysis of Sodium cooled Fast Reactor (SFR), it is required to have a reliable and well-proven system analysis code. To achieve this purpose, KAERI is enhancing the modeling capability of MARS code by adding the SFR-specific models such as pressure drop model, heat transfer model and reactivity feedback model. This version of MARS-LMR will be used as a basic tool in the design and analysis of future SFR systems in Korea. Before wide application of MARS-LMR code, it is required to verify and validate the code models through analyses for appropriate experimental data or analytical results. The end-of-life test of Phenix reactor performed by the CEA provided a unique opportunity to have reliable test data which is very valuable in the validation and verification of a SFR system analysis code. The KAERI joined this international program of the analysis of Phenix end-of-life natural circulation test coordinated by the IAEA from 2008. The main test of natural circulation was completed in 2009. Before the test the KAERI performed the pre-test analysis based on the design condition provided by the CEA. Then, the blind post-test analysis was also performed based on the test conditions measured during the test before the CEA provide the final test results. Finally, the final post-test analysis was performed recently to predict the test results as accurate as possible. This paper introduces the modeling approach of the MARS-LMR used in the final post-test analysis and summarizes the major results of the analysis

  4. Prediction of cloud droplet number in a general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghan, S.J.; Leung, L.R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1996-04-01

    We have applied the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) bulk cloud microphysics parameterization to the treatment of stratiform clouds in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2). The RAMS predicts mass concentrations of cloud water, cloud ice, rain and snow, and number concnetration of ice. We have introduced the droplet number conservation equation to predict droplet number and it`s dependence on aerosols.

  5. Natural analogues and radionuclide transport model validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lever, D.A.

    1987-08-01

    In this paper, some possible roles for natural analogues are discussed from the point of view of those involved with the development of mathematical models for radionuclide transport and with the use of these models in repository safety assessments. The characteristic features of a safety assessment are outlined in order to address the questions of where natural analogues can be used to improve our understanding of the processes involved and where they can assist in validating the models that are used. Natural analogues have the potential to provide useful information about some critical processes, especially long-term chemical processes and migration rates. There is likely to be considerable uncertainty and ambiguity associated with the interpretation of natural analogues, and thus it is their general features which should be emphasized, and models with appropriate levels of sophistication should be used. Experience gained in modelling the Koongarra uranium deposit in northern Australia is drawn upon. (author)

  6. A nested Atlantic-Mediterranean Sea general circulation model for operational forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Oddo

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available A new numerical general circulation ocean model for the Mediterranean Sea has been implemented nested within an Atlantic general circulation model within the framework of the Marine Environment and Security for the European Area project (MERSEA, Desaubies, 2006. A 4-year twin experiment was carried out from January 2004 to December 2007 with two different models to evaluate the impact on the Mediterranean Sea circulation of open lateral boundary conditions in the Atlantic Ocean. One model considers a closed lateral boundary in a large Atlantic box and the other is nested in the same box in a global ocean circulation model. Impact was observed comparing the two simulations with independent observations: ARGO for temperature and salinity profiles and tide gauges and along-track satellite observations for the sea surface height. The improvement in the nested Atlantic-Mediterranean model with respect to the closed one is particularly evident in the salinity characteristics of the Modified Atlantic Water and in the Mediterranean sea level seasonal variability.

  7. Predictive validation of an influenza spread model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayaz Hyder

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998-1999. Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type. Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. CONCLUSIONS: Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve

  8. Predictive Validation of an Influenza Spread Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyder, Ayaz; Buckeridge, David L.; Leung, Brian

    2013-01-01

    Background Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. Methods and Findings We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998–1999). Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type). Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. Conclusions Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers) with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve their predictive

  9. Seclazone Reactor Modeling And Experimental Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Osinga, T. [ETH-Zuerich (Switzerland); Olalde, G. [CNRS Odeillo (France); Steinfeld, A. [PSI and ETHZ (Switzerland)

    2005-03-01

    A numerical model is formulated for the SOLZINC solar chemical reactor for the production of Zn by carbothermal reduction of ZnO. The model involves solving, by the finite-volume technique, a 1D unsteady state energy equation that couples heat transfer to the chemical kinetics for a shrinking packed bed exposed to thermal radiation. Validation is accomplished by comparison with experimentally measured temperature profiles and Zn production rates as a function of time, obtained for a 5-kW solar reactor tested at PSI's solar furnace. (author)

  10. Analytical validation of BRAF mutation testing from circulating free DNA using the amplification refractory mutation testing system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aung, Kyaw L; Donald, Emma; Ellison, Gillian; Bujac, Sarah; Fletcher, Lynn; Cantarini, Mireille; Brady, Ged; Orr, Maria; Clack, Glen; Ranson, Malcolm; Dive, Caroline; Hughes, Andrew

    2014-05-01

    BRAF mutation testing from circulating free DNA (cfDNA) using the amplification refractory mutation testing system (ARMS) holds potential as a surrogate for tumor mutation testing. Robust assay validation is needed to establish the optimal clinical matrix for measurement and cfDNA-specific mutation calling criteria. Plasma- and serum-derived cfDNA samples from 221 advanced melanoma patients were analyzed for BRAF c.1799T>A (p.V600E) mutation using ARMS in two stages in a blinded fashion. cfDNA-specific mutation calling criteria were defined in stage 1 and validated in stage 2. cfDNA concentrations in serum and plasma, and the sensitivities and specificities of BRAF mutation detection in these two clinical matrices were compared. Sensitivity of BRAF c.1799T>A (p.V600E) mutation detection in cfDNA was increased by using mutation calling criteria optimized for cfDNA (these criteria were adjusted from those used for archival tumor biopsies) without compromising specificity. Sensitivity of BRAF mutation detection in serum was 44% (95% CI, 35% to 53%) and in plasma 52% (95% CI, 43% to 61%). Specificity was 96% (95% CI, 90% to 99%) in both matrices. Serum contains significantly higher total cfDNA than plasma, whereas the proportion of tumor-derived mutant DNA was significantly higher in plasma. Using mutation calling criteria optimized for cfDNA improves sensitivity of BRAF c.1799T>A (p.V600E) mutation detection. The proportion of tumor-derived cfDNA in plasma was significantly higher than in serum. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Investigative Pathology and the Association for Molecular Pathology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Improvement in Geoid Models for Ocean Circulation Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapley, Byron D.; Chambers, Don P.; Poole, Steve; Ries, John c.

    2003-01-01

    At wavelengths of 500 km and longer, the GRACE GGM01 Model produces a significantly better marine geoid than any previous model. This conclusion follows from evaluating the geostrophic currents determined by combining the model with a mean sea surface from altimetry. The agreement with currents computed from a traditional hydrographic map is very close, which suggests that one of the primary missions of the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission, to determine the absolute dynamic ocean topography, may soon be met. This solution has been made available to the public at http://www.csr.utexs.edu/grace/gravity. The results reported in this paper have been presented at the 2003 EGS-AGU-EUG Joint Assembly. Two articles are currently being prepared for Geophysical Research Letters to summarize these results.

  12. Evaluation of a stratiform cloud parameterization for general circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghan, S.J.; Leung, L.R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States); McCaa, J. [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)

    1996-04-01

    To evaluate the relative importance of horizontal advection of cloud versus cloud formation within the grid cell of a single column model (SCM), we have performed a series of simulations with our SCM driven by a fixed vertical velocity and various rates of horizontal advection.

  13. Modelling of hydrodynamic circulation in Benoa Bay, Bali

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ningsih, Nining Sari; Muchamad, Al Azhar

    2013-01-01

    A simulation of water level, velocity, salinity, and temperature in the Bay of Benoa has been carried out using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic Estuarine and Coastal Ocean Model incorporating a main characteristic of southward transport of the Indonesian throughflow at the offshore area of the bay...

  14. Turbulence Modeling Validation, Testing, and Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardina, J. E.; Huang, P. G.; Coakley, T. J.

    1997-01-01

    The primary objective of this work is to provide accurate numerical solutions for selected flow fields and to compare and evaluate the performance of selected turbulence models with experimental results. Four popular turbulence models have been tested and validated against experimental data often turbulent flows. The models are: (1) the two-equation k-epsilon model of Wilcox, (2) the two-equation k-epsilon model of Launder and Sharma, (3) the two-equation k-omega/k-epsilon SST model of Menter, and (4) the one-equation model of Spalart and Allmaras. The flows investigated are five free shear flows consisting of a mixing layer, a round jet, a plane jet, a plane wake, and a compressible mixing layer; and five boundary layer flows consisting of an incompressible flat plate, a Mach 5 adiabatic flat plate, a separated boundary layer, an axisymmetric shock-wave/boundary layer interaction, and an RAE 2822 transonic airfoil. The experimental data for these flows are well established and have been extensively used in model developments. The results are shown in the following four sections: Part A describes the equations of motion and boundary conditions; Part B describes the model equations, constants, parameters, boundary conditions, and numerical implementation; and Parts C and D describe the experimental data and the performance of the models in the free-shear flows and the boundary layer flows, respectively.

  15. Coupling of Wave and Circulation Models in the Atlantic European North-West Shelf Predicting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staneva, Joanna; Krüger, Oliver; Behrens, Arno; Lewis, Huw; Castillo, Juan M.

    2017-04-01

    This study addresses the coupling between wind wave and circulation models on the example of the Atlantic - European North-West Shelf (NWS). This topic reflects the increased interest in operational oceanography to reduce prediction errors of state estimates at coastal scales. The uncertainties in most of the presently used models result from the nonlinear feedback between strong tidal currents and wind-waves, which can no longer be ignored, in particular in the coastal zone where its role seems to be dominant. Coupled circulation (NEMO) and wave model (WAM) system was used to study the effects of surface ocean waves on thermohaline distribution and ocean circulation at the NWS. Four scenarios - including Stokes-Coriolis force, sea-state dependent energy flux (additional turbulent kinetic energy due to breaking waves), sea-state dependent momentum flux and the combination of the three wave-induced forcing were performed to study the role of the wave-induced processes on model simulations. The individual and collective role of those processes is quantified and the results are compared with the NWS circulation model results without wave effects as well as against various in-situ measurements. The performance of the forecasting system is illustrated for the cases of several extreme events. The improved skills resulting from the new developments in the forecasting system, in particular during extreme events, justify further enhancements of the coastal operational systems. The study is performed in the frame of the COPERNICUS CMEMS Service Evolution Projects Wave2NEMO and OWAIRS.

  16. Validation of a phytoremediation computer model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corapcioglu, M.Y.; Sung, K.; Rhykerd, R.L.; Munster, C.; Drew, M.

    1999-01-01

    The use of plants to stimulate remediation of contaminated soil is an effective, low-cost cleanup method which can be applied to many different sites. A phytoremediation computer model has been developed to simulate how recalcitrant hydrocarbons interact with plant roots in unsaturated soil. A study was conducted to provide data to validate and calibrate the model. During the study, lysimeters were constructed and filled with soil contaminated with 10 [mg kg -1 ] TNT, PBB and chrysene. Vegetated and unvegetated treatments were conducted in triplicate to obtain data regarding contaminant concentrations in the soil, plant roots, root distribution, microbial activity, plant water use and soil moisture. When given the parameters of time and depth, the model successfully predicted contaminant concentrations under actual field conditions. Other model parameters are currently being evaluated. 15 refs., 2 figs

  17. Development and verification of a space-dependent dynamic model of a natural circulation steam generator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mewdell, C.G.; Harrison, W.C.; Hawley, E.H.

    1980-01-01

    This paper describes the development and verification of a Non-Linear Space-Dependent Dynamic Model of a Natural Circulation Steam Generator typical of boilers used in CANDU nuclear power stations. The model contains a detailed one-dimensional dynamic description of both the primary and secondary sides of an integral pre-heater natural circulation boiler. Two-phase flow effects on the primary side are included. The secondary side uses a drift-flux model in the boiling sections and a detailed non-equilibrium point model for the steam drum. The paper presents the essential features of the final model called BOILER-2, its solution scheme, the RD-12 loop and test boiler, the boiler steady-state and transient experiments, and the comparison of the model predictions with experimental results. (author)

  18. Towards policy relevant environmental modeling: contextual validity and pragmatic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, Scott B.

    2000-01-01

    "What makes for a good model?" In various forms, this question is a question that, undoubtedly, many people, businesses, and institutions ponder with regards to their particular domain of modeling. One particular domain that is wrestling with this question is the multidisciplinary field of environmental modeling. Examples of environmental models range from models of contaminated ground water flow to the economic impact of natural disasters, such as earthquakes. One of the distinguishing claims of the field is the relevancy of environmental modeling to policy and environment-related decision-making in general. A pervasive view by both scientists and decision-makers is that a "good" model is one that is an accurate predictor. Thus, determining whether a model is "accurate" or "correct" is done by comparing model output to empirical observations. The expected outcome of this process, usually referred to as "validation" or "ground truthing," is a stamp on the model in question of "valid" or "not valid" that serves to indicate whether or not the model will be reliable before it is put into service in a decision-making context. In this paper, I begin by elaborating on the prevailing view of model validation and why this view must change. Drawing from concepts coming out of the studies of science and technology, I go on to propose a contextual view of validity that can overcome the problems associated with "ground truthing" models as an indicator of model goodness. The problem of how we talk about and determine model validity has much to do about how we perceive the utility of environmental models. In the remainder of the paper, I argue that we should adopt ideas of pragmatism in judging what makes for a good model and, in turn, developing good models. From such a perspective of model goodness, good environmental models should facilitate communication, convey—not bury or "eliminate"—uncertainties, and, thus, afford the active building of consensus decisions, instead

  19. Physiologically motivated time-delay model to account for mechanisms underlying enterohepatic circulation of piroxicam in human beings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tvrdonova, Martina; Dedik, Ladislav; Mircioiu, Constantin; Miklovicova, Daniela; Durisova, Maria

    2009-01-01

    The study was conducted to formulate a physiologically motivated time-delay (PM TD) mathematical model for human beings, which incorporates disintegration of a drug formulation, dissolution, discontinuous gastric emptying and enterohepatic circulation (EHC) of a drug. Piroxicam, administered to 24 European, healthy individuals in 20 mg capsules Feldene Pfizer, was used as a model drug. Plasma was analysed for piroxicam by a validated high-performance liquid chromatography method. The PM TD mathematical model was developed using measured plasma piroxicam concentration-time profiles of the individuals and tools of a computationally efficient mathematical analysis and modeling, based on the theory of linear dynamic systems. The constructed model was capable of (i) quantifying different fractions of the piroxicam dose sequentially disposable for absorption and (ii) estimating time delays between time when the piroxicam dose reaches stomach and time when individual of fractions of the piroxicam dose is disposable for absorption. The model verification was performed through a formal proof, based on comparisons of observed and model-predicted plasma piroxicam concentration-time profiles. The model verification showed an adequate model performance and agreement between the compared profiles. Accordingly, it confirmed that the developed model was an appropriate representative of the piroxicam fate in the individuals enrolled. The presented model provides valuable information on factors that control dynamic mechanisms of EHC, that is, information unobtainable with the models proposed for the EHC analysis previously.

  20. An implementation of a barotropic quasigeostrophic model of ocean circulation on the MPP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosch, C. E.; Fatoohi, R.

    1987-01-01

    The implementation on the Massively Parallel Processor (MPP) of a barotropic quasigeostrophic model of ocean circulation is discussed. The mathematical model, including scalings and boundary conditions is discussed. The numerical scheme, which uses compact differencing is also discussed. The implementation of this model on the MPP is then presented. Finally, some performance results are given and compared to results obtained using the VPS-32 and one processor of a CRAY-2.

  1. The benefits of extended plate motion history in mantle circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Peter; Davies, Huw; Davies, Rhodri; Hochard, Cyril; Stampfli, Gerard

    2010-05-01

    Mantle Circulation Models (MCMs) are mantle convection simulations conditioned with plate motion history. Due to difficulties in reconstructing plate motions beyond ≈ 120 Ma, MCMs often only incorporate the most recent 120 Myr of plate tectonic evolution. We find that such models are strongly influenced by initial conditions. The development of a new series of tectonic reconstructions extending back to the Triassic (230 Ma) and including careful reconstruction of the oceanic parts of the plates (modified from Stampfli and Borel, 2004, Stampfli et al. 2008 and references therein) should prove to be of huge importance to MCMs. In this study we present a comparison between the traditionally used 120 Myr and the latest 230 Myr plate motion histories. We use the three-dimensional spherical mantle convection code TERRA (Bunge et al., 2003) to simulate convection at Earth like vigour. Here we apply the plate motion history as a surface velocity boundary condition to drive the internal convection of an already well-mixed system. The forward models from a chosen starting point to present day yield information on mantle temperature (as well as pressure, velocity and material properties) throughout the volume. One of the ways to validate our results is to compare these with tomographic models. Seismic tomography provides us with a snapshot of Earth's mantle at present day. Assuming that the mantle is driven largely by thermal convection, we can assume that the seismically fast regions are associated with cooler, denser material. The most significant of these can be interpreted as remnants of subducted slabs (Hafkenscheid et al 2006, van der Meer et al. 2010). We convert the temperatures predicted by the MCM to seismic velocities using the latest techniques (e.g. Cobden et al., 2008) and compare the calculated velocities to a range of seismic tomography models (both P and S wave). This way we can examine the validity of the surface velocity boundary condition and identify

  2. Simulation of the Low-Level-Jet by general circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghan, S.J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1996-04-01

    To what degree is the low-level jet climatology and it`s impact on clouds and precipitation being captured by current general circulation models? It is hypothesised that a need for a pramaterization exists. This paper describes this parameterization need.

  3. Low-frequency oscillations of the Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation in a coupled climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Schulz

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Using a 3-dimensional climate model of intermediate complexity we show that the overturning circulation of the Atlantic Ocean can vary at multicentennial-to-millennial timescales for modern boundary conditions. A continuous freshwater perturbation in the Labrador Sea pushes the overturning circulation of the Atlantic Ocean into a bi-stable regime, characterized by phases of active and inactive deep-water formation in the Labrador Sea. In contrast, deep-water formation in the Nordic Seas is active during all phases of the oscillations. The actual timing of the transitions between the two circulation states occurs randomly. The oscillations constitute a 3-dimensional phenomenon and have to be distinguished from low-frequency oscillations seen previously in 2-dimensional models of the ocean. A conceptual model provides further insight into the essential dynamics underlying the oscillations of the large-scale ocean circulation. The model experiments indicate that the coupled climate system can exhibit unforced climate variability at multicentennial-to-millennial timescales that may be of relevance for Holocene climate variations.

  4. Selected translated abstracts of Russian-language climate-change publications. 4: General circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burtis, M.D. [comp.] [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center; Razuvaev, V.N.; Sivachok, S.G. [All-Russian Research Inst. of Hydrometeorological Information--World Data Center, Obninsk (Russian Federation)

    1996-10-01

    This report presents English-translated abstracts of important Russian-language literature concerning general circulation models as they relate to climate change. Into addition to the bibliographic citations and abstracts translated into English, this report presents the original citations and abstracts in Russian. Author and title indexes are included to assist the reader in locating abstracts of particular interest.

  5. High-resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for Canada derived from general circulation model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. T. Price; D. W. McKenney; L. A. Joyce; R. M. Siltanen; P. Papadopol; K. Lawrence

    2011-01-01

    Projections of future climate were selected for four well-established general circulation models (GCMs) forced by each of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), namely scenarios A2, A1B, and B1 of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Monthly data for the period 1961-2100 were...

  6. The response of Mediterranean thermohaline circulation to climate change: a minimal model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijer, P.Th.; Dijkstra, H.A.

    2009-01-01

    Physics-based understanding of the effects of paleoclimate and paleogeography on the thermohaline circulation of the Mediterranean Sea requires an ocean model capable of long integrations and involving a minimum of assumptions about the atmospheric forcing. Here we examine the sensitivity of

  7. The response of Mediterranean thermohaline circulation to climate change: a minimal model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijer, P.Th.; Dijkstra, H.A.

    2009-01-01

    Physics-based understanding of the effects of paleoclimate and paleogeography on the thermohaline circulation of the Mediterranean Sea requires an ocean model capable of long integrations and involving a minimum of assumptions about the atmospheric forcing. Here we examine the sensitivity of the

  8. Model-free adaptive control of supercritical circulating fluidized-bed boilers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, George Shu-Xing; Mulkey, Steven L

    2014-12-16

    A novel 3-Input-3-Output (3.times.3) Fuel-Air Ratio Model-Free Adaptive (MFA) controller is introduced, which can effectively control key process variables including Bed Temperature, Excess O2, and Furnace Negative Pressure of combustion processes of advanced boilers. A novel 7-input-7-output (7.times.7) MFA control system is also described for controlling a combined 3-Input-3-Output (3.times.3) process of Boiler-Turbine-Generator (BTG) units and a 5.times.5 CFB combustion process of advanced boilers. Those boilers include Circulating Fluidized-Bed (CFB) Boilers and Once-Through Supercritical Circulating Fluidized-Bed (OTSC CFB) Boilers.

  9. Evaluation of daily temperatures in Central Europe and their links to large-scale circulation in an ensemble of regional climate models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Plavcová, Eva; Kyselý, Jan

    63A, č. 4 (2011), s. 763-781 ISSN 0280-6495 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP209/10/2265 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : daily air temperature * regional climate models * atmospheric circulation * validation * Central Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.136, year: 2011 http://www.tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/view/15844/17734

  10. Application of blocking diagnosis methods to general circulation models. Part I: a novel detection scheme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barriopedro, D. [Universidade de Lisboa, CGUL-IDL, Faculdade de Ciencias, Ed. C-8, Lisbon (Portugal); Universidad de Extremadura, Departamento de Fisica, Facultad de Ciencias, Badajoz (Spain); Garcia-Herrera, R. [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Departamento de Fisica de la Tierra II, Facultad de C.C. Fisicas, Madrid (Spain); Trigo, R.M. [Universidade de Lisboa, CGUL-IDL, Faculdade de Ciencias, Ed. C-8, Lisbon (Portugal)

    2010-12-15

    This paper aims to provide a new blocking definition with applicability to observations and model simulations. An updated review of previous blocking detection indices is provided and some of their implications and caveats discussed. A novel blocking index is proposed by reconciling two traditional approaches based on anomaly and absolute flows. Blocks are considered from a complementary perspective as a signature in the anomalous height field capable of reversing the meridional jet-based height gradient in the total flow. The method succeeds in identifying 2-D persistent anomalies associated to a weather regime in the total flow with blockage of the westerlies. The new index accounts for the duration, intensity, extension, propagation, and spatial structure of a blocking event. In spite of its increased complexity, the detection efficiency of the method is improved without hampering the computational time. Furthermore, some misleading identification problems and artificial assumptions resulting from previous single blocking indices are avoided with the new approach. The characteristics of blocking for 40 years of reanalysis (1950-1989) over the Northern Hemisphere are described from the perspective of the new definition and compared to those resulting from two standard blocking indices and different critical thresholds. As compared to single approaches, the novel index shows a better agreement with reported proxies of blocking activity, namely climatological regions of simultaneous wave amplification and maximum band-pass filtered height standard deviation. An additional asset of the method is its adaptability to different data sets. As critical thresholds are specific of the data set employed, the method is useful for observations and model simulations of different resolutions, temporal lengths and time variant basic states, optimizing its value as a tool for model validation. Special attention has been paid on the devise of an objective scheme easily applicable

  11. Concepts of Model Verification and Validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thacker, B.H.; Doebling, S.W.; Hemez, F.M.; Anderson, M.C.; Pepin, J.E.; Rodriguez, E.A.

    2004-01-01

    Model verification and validation (VandV) is an enabling methodology for the development of computational models that can be used to make engineering predictions with quantified confidence. Model VandV procedures are needed by government and industry to reduce the time, cost, and risk associated with full-scale testing of products, materials, and weapon systems. Quantifying the confidence and predictive accuracy of model calculations provides the decision-maker with the information necessary for making high-consequence decisions. The development of guidelines and procedures for conducting a model VandV program are currently being defined by a broad spectrum of researchers. This report reviews the concepts involved in such a program. Model VandV is a current topic of great interest to both government and industry. In response to a ban on the production of new strategic weapons and nuclear testing, the Department of Energy (DOE) initiated the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP). An objective of the SSP is to maintain a high level of confidence in the safety, reliability, and performance of the existing nuclear weapons stockpile in the absence of nuclear testing. This objective has challenged the national laboratories to develop high-confidence tools and methods that can be used to provide credible models needed for stockpile certification via numerical simulation. There has been a significant increase in activity recently to define VandV methods and procedures. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) Modeling and Simulation Office (DMSO) is working to develop fundamental concepts and terminology for VandV applied to high-level systems such as ballistic missile defense and battle management simulations. The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has recently formed a Standards Committee for the development of VandV procedures for computational solid mechanics models. The Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board (DNFSB) has been a proponent of model

  12. Circulation of carbon dioxide in the mantle: multiscale modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morra, G.; Yuen, D. A.; Lee, S.

    2012-12-01

    Much speculation has been put forward on the quantity and nature of carbon reservoirs in the deep Earth, because of its involvement in the evolution of life at the surface and inside planetary interiors. Carbon penetrates into the Earth's mantle mostly during subduction of oceanic crust, which contains carbonate deposits [1], however the form that it assumes at lower mantle depths is scarcely understood [2], hampering our ability to estimate the amount of carbon in the entire mantle by orders of magnitude. We present simulations of spontaneous degassing of supercritical CO2 using in-house developed novel implementations of the Fast-Multipole Boundary Element Method suitable for modeling two-phase flow (here mantle mineral and free CO2 fluid) through disordered materials such as porous rocks. Because the mutual interaction of droplets immersed either in a fluid or a solid matrix and their weakening effect to the host rock alters the strength of the mantle rocks, at the large scale the fluid phases in the mantle may control the creeping of mantle rocks [3]. In particular our study focuses on the percolation of supercritical CO2, estimated through the solution of the Laplace equation in a porous system, stochastically generated through a series of random Karhunen-Loeve decomposition. The model outcome is employed to extract the transmissivity of supercritical fluids in the mantle from the lowest scale up to the mantle scale and in combination with the creeping flow of the convecting mantle. The emerging scenarios on the global carbon cycle are finally discussed. [1] Boulard, E., et al., New host for carbon in the deep Earth. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2011. 108(13): p. 5184-5187. [2] Walter, M.J., et al., Deep Mantle Cycling of Oceanic Crust: Evidence from Diamonds and Their Mineral Inclusions. Science, 2011. 334(6052): p. 54-57. [3] Morra, G., et al., Ascent of Bubbles in Magma Conduits Using Boundary Elements and Particles. Procedia Computer

  13. Validation of advanced NSSS simulator model for loss-of-coolant accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kao, S.P.; Chang, S.K.; Huang, H.C. [Nuclear Training Branch, Northeast Utilities, Waterford, CT (United States)

    1995-09-01

    The replacement of the NSSS (Nuclear Steam Supply System) model on the Millstone 2 full-scope simulator has significantly increased its fidelity to simulate adverse conditions in the RCS. The new simulator NSSS model is a real-time derivative of the Nuclear Plant Analyzer by ABB. The thermal-hydraulic model is a five-equation, non-homogeneous model for water, steam, and non-condensible gases. The neutronic model is a three-dimensional nodal diffusion model. In order to certify the new NSSS model for operator training, an extensive validation effort has been performed by benchmarking the model performance against RELAP5/MOD2. This paper presents the validation results for the cases of small-and large-break loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCA). Detailed comparisons in the phenomena of reflux-condensation, phase separation, and two-phase natural circulation are discussed.

  14. Implementing Numerical Experiments Based on the Coupled Model of Atmospheric General Circulation and Thermohaline Ocean One

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. P. Parhomenko

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a realized hydrodynamic three-dimensional global climatic model, which comprises the model blocks of atmospheric general circulation, thermohaline large-scale circulation of the ocean, and sea ice evolution. Before rather strongly aggregated heat-moisturebalance model of the atmosphere for temperature and humidity of a surface layer was used as a model of the atmosphere. The atmospheric general circulation model is significantly more complicated and allows us to describe processes in the atmosphere more adequately. Functioning of a coupled climatic model is considered in conditions of the seasonal cycle of solar radiation.The paper considers a procedure for coupled calculation of the ocean model and atmospheric general circulation model. Synchronization of a number of parameters in both models is necessary for their joint action. In this regard a procedure of two-dimensional interpolation of data defined on the grids of the ocean model and atmosphere model and back is developed. A feature of this task is discrepancy of grid nodes and continental configurations in models. Coupled model-based long-term calculations for more than 400 years have shown its stable work. Calculation results and comparison with observation data are under discussion.The paper shows distribution of mean global atmosphere temperature versus time in stable conditions to demonstrate that there is inter-annual variability of atmosphere temperature at the steady state of a climate system. It presents distribution of temperature difference of the ocean surface from the observations and from the model of the ocean thermohaline circulation for January. Noticeable deviations of temperature are observed near Antarctica. Apparently, it is because of inaccurate calculation of the sea ice distribution in model. The geographical distribution of the ocean surface temperature for January with coupled calculation shows, in general, a zonal uniform structure of isolines

  15. An inverse modeling study of circulation in the Eastern Bering Sea during 2007-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panteleev, Gleb; Yaremchuk, Max; Francis, Oceana; Stabeno, Phyllis J.; Weingartner, T.; Zhang, J.

    2016-06-01

    A two-way nested 4d-variational data assimilation system is implemented in the Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) to investigate changes in circulation and thermodynamic state for a 3.8 year period. Assimilated observations include data from 19 moorings deployed on the shelf and in the Bering Strait, 1705 hydrographic stations occupied during eight surveys, and remotely sensed sea surface temperature and sea surface height (SSH) data. Validation of the presented 4dVar reanalysis against the output of two sequential data-assimilative systems (the Bering Ecosystem Study ice-ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (BESTMAS) and the Arctic Cap Nowcast-Forecast System (ACNFS)) has shown that the product is more consistent with the observed transports in the Bering Strait and in the EBS interior both in terms of their magnitude and time variability. Analysis of the data-optimized solution quantifies a sequence of wind-forced events that resulted in the anomalous heat and freshwater transports through the Bering Strait, including a 28 day long flow reversal that occurred in November 2009 and carried Siberian Coastal Current water down to the Gulf of Anadyr. Lagrangian study of the Arctic-bound Pacific waters indicates the extreme importance of the cross-shelf exchange along the path of the Bering Slope Current and quantifies the spectrum of residence times for the waters entering EBS through Unimak Pass and through Aleutian passages. Residence times in the EBS cold pool are diagnosed to be 2-3 times longer than those in the surrounding waters.

  16. Clinical validation of an ultra high-throughput spiral microfluidics for the detection and enrichment of viable circulating tumor cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bee Luan Khoo

    Full Text Available Circulating tumor cells (CTCs are cancer cells that can be isolated via liquid biopsy from blood and can be phenotypically and genetically characterized to provide critical information for guiding cancer treatment. Current analysis of CTCs is hindered by the throughput, selectivity and specificity of devices or assays used in CTC detection and isolation.Here, we enriched and characterized putative CTCs from blood samples of patients with both advanced stage metastatic breast and lung cancers using a novel multiplexed spiral microfluidic chip. This system detected putative CTCs under high sensitivity (100%, n = 56 (Breast cancer samples: 12-1275 CTCs/ml; Lung cancer samples: 10-1535 CTCs/ml rapidly from clinically relevant blood volumes (7.5 ml under 5 min. Blood samples were completely separated into plasma, CTCs and PBMCs components and each fraction were characterized with immunophenotyping (Pan-cytokeratin/CD45, CD44/CD24, EpCAM, fluorescence in-situ hybridization (FISH (EML4-ALK or targeted somatic mutation analysis. We used an ultra-sensitive mass spectrometry based system to highlight the presence of an EGFR-activating mutation in both isolated CTCs and plasma cell-free DNA (cf-DNA, and demonstrate concordance with the original tumor-biopsy samples.We have clinically validated our multiplexed microfluidic chip for the ultra high-throughput, low-cost and label-free enrichment of CTCs. Retrieved cells were unlabeled and viable, enabling potential propagation and real-time downstream analysis using next generation sequencing (NGS or proteomic analysis.

  17. Model-Based Method for Sensor Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vatan, Farrokh

    2012-01-01

    Fault detection, diagnosis, and prognosis are essential tasks in the operation of autonomous spacecraft, instruments, and in situ platforms. One of NASA s key mission requirements is robust state estimation. Sensing, using a wide range of sensors and sensor fusion approaches, plays a central role in robust state estimation, and there is a need to diagnose sensor failure as well as component failure. Sensor validation can be considered to be part of the larger effort of improving reliability and safety. The standard methods for solving the sensor validation problem are based on probabilistic analysis of the system, from which the method based on Bayesian networks is most popular. Therefore, these methods can only predict the most probable faulty sensors, which are subject to the initial probabilities defined for the failures. The method developed in this work is based on a model-based approach and provides the faulty sensors (if any), which can be logically inferred from the model of the system and the sensor readings (observations). The method is also more suitable for the systems when it is hard, or even impossible, to find the probability functions of the system. The method starts by a new mathematical description of the problem and develops a very efficient and systematic algorithm for its solution. The method builds on the concepts of analytical redundant relations (ARRs).

  18. Adaptive subdomain modeling: A multi-analysis technique for ocean circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altuntas, Alper; Baugh, John

    2017-07-01

    Many coastal and ocean processes of interest operate over large temporal and geographical scales and require a substantial amount of computational resources, particularly when engineering design and failure scenarios are also considered. This study presents an adaptive multi-analysis technique that improves the efficiency of these computations when multiple alternatives are being simulated. The technique, called adaptive subdomain modeling, concurrently analyzes any number of child domains, with each instance corresponding to a unique design or failure scenario, in addition to a full-scale parent domain providing the boundary conditions for its children. To contain the altered hydrodynamics originating from the modifications, the spatial extent of each child domain is adaptively adjusted during runtime depending on the response of the model. The technique is incorporated in ADCIRC++, a re-implementation of the popular ADCIRC ocean circulation model with an updated software architecture designed to facilitate this adaptive behavior and to utilize concurrent executions of multiple domains. The results of our case studies confirm that the method substantially reduces computational effort while maintaining accuracy.

  19. Assessment model validity document FARF31

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elert, Mark; Gylling Bjoern; Lindgren, Maria

    2004-08-01

    The prime goal of model validation is to build confidence in the model concept and that the model is fit for its intended purpose. In other words: Does the model predict transport in fractured rock adequately to be used in repository performance assessments. Are the results reasonable for the type of modelling tasks the model is designed for. Commonly, in performance assessments a large number of realisations of flow and transport is made to cover the associated uncertainties. Thus, the flow and transport including radioactive chain decay are preferably calculated in the same model framework. A rather sophisticated concept is necessary to be able to model flow and radionuclide transport in the near field and far field of a deep repository, also including radioactive chain decay. In order to avoid excessively long computational times there is a need for well-based simplifications. For this reason, the far field code FARF31 is made relatively simple, and calculates transport by using averaged entities to represent the most important processes. FARF31 has been shown to be suitable for the performance assessments within the SKB studies, e.g. SR 97. Among the advantages are that it is a fast, simple and robust code, which enables handling of many realisations with wide spread in parameters in combination with chain decay of radionuclides. Being a component in the model chain PROPER, it is easy to assign statistical distributions to the input parameters. Due to the formulation of the advection-dispersion equation in FARF31 it is possible to perform the groundwater flow calculations separately.The basis for the modelling is a stream tube, i.e. a volume of rock including fractures with flowing water, with the walls of the imaginary stream tube defined by streamlines. The transport within the stream tube is described using a dual porosity continuum approach, where it is assumed that rock can be divided into two distinct domains with different types of porosity

  20. Assessment model validity document FARF31

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elert, Mark; Gylling Bjoern; Lindgren, Maria [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2004-08-01

    The prime goal of model validation is to build confidence in the model concept and that the model is fit for its intended purpose. In other words: Does the model predict transport in fractured rock adequately to be used in repository performance assessments. Are the results reasonable for the type of modelling tasks the model is designed for. Commonly, in performance assessments a large number of realisations of flow and transport is made to cover the associated uncertainties. Thus, the flow and transport including radioactive chain decay are preferably calculated in the same model framework. A rather sophisticated concept is necessary to be able to model flow and radionuclide transport in the near field and far field of a deep repository, also including radioactive chain decay. In order to avoid excessively long computational times there is a need for well-based simplifications. For this reason, the far field code FARF31 is made relatively simple, and calculates transport by using averaged entities to represent the most important processes. FARF31 has been shown to be suitable for the performance assessments within the SKB studies, e.g. SR 97. Among the advantages are that it is a fast, simple and robust code, which enables handling of many realisations with wide spread in parameters in combination with chain decay of radionuclides. Being a component in the model chain PROPER, it is easy to assign statistical distributions to the input parameters. Due to the formulation of the advection-dispersion equation in FARF31 it is possible to perform the groundwater flow calculations separately.The basis for the modelling is a stream tube, i.e. a volume of rock including fractures with flowing water, with the walls of the imaginary stream tube defined by streamlines. The transport within the stream tube is described using a dual porosity continuum approach, where it is assumed that rock can be divided into two distinct domains with different types of porosity

  1. Validation of the filament winding process model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calius, Emilo P.; Springer, George S.; Wilson, Brian A.; Hanson, R. Scott

    1987-01-01

    Tests were performed toward validating the WIND model developed previously for simulating the filament winding of composite cylinders. In these tests two 24 in. long, 8 in. diam and 0.285 in. thick cylinders, made of IM-6G fibers and HBRF-55 resin, were wound at + or - 45 deg angle on steel mandrels. The temperatures on the inner and outer surfaces and inside the composite cylinders were recorded during oven cure. The temperatures inside the cylinders were also calculated by the WIND model. The measured and calculated temperatures were then compared. In addition, the degree of cure and resin viscosity distributions inside the cylinders were calculated for the conditions which existed in the tests.

  2. Validation of mathematical models to describe fluid dynamics of a cold riser by gamma ray attenuation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melo, Ana Cristina Bezerra Azedo de

    2004-12-01

    The fluid dynamic behavior of a riser in a cold type FCC model was investigated by means of catalyst concentration distribution measured with gamma attenuation and simulated with a mathematical model. In the riser of the cold model, MEF, 0,032 m in diameter, 2,30 m in length the fluidized bed, whose components are air and FCC catalyst, circulates. The MEF is operated by automatic control and instruments for measuring fluid dynamic variables. An axial catalyst concentration distribution was measured using an Am-241 gamma source and a NaI detector coupled to a multichannel provided with a software for data acquisition and evaluation. The MEF was adapted for a fluid dynamic model validation which describes the flow in the riser, for example, by introducing an injector for controlling the solid flow in circulation. Mathematical models were selected from literature, analyzed and tested to simulate the fluid dynamic of the riser. A methodology for validating fluid dynamic models was studied and implemented. The stages of the work were developed according to the validation methodology, such as data planning experiments, study of the equations which describe the fluidodynamic, computational solvers application and comparison with experimental data. Operational sequences were carried out keeping the MEF conditions for measuring catalyst concentration and simultaneously measuring the fluid dynamic variables, velocity of the components and pressure drop in the riser. Following this, simulated and experimental values were compared and statistical data treatment done, aiming at the required precision to validate the fluid dynamic model. The comparison tests between experimental and simulated data were carried out under validation criteria. The fluid dynamic behavior of the riser was analyzed and the results and the agreement with literature were discussed. The adopt model was validated under the MEF operational conditions, for a 3 to 6 m/s gas velocity in the riser and a slip

  3. Comparison of three-dimensional ocean general circulation models on a benchmark problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chartier, M.

    1990-12-01

    A french and an american Ocean General Circulation Models for deep-sea disposal of radioactive wastes are compared on a benchmark test problem. Both models are three-dimensional. They solve the hydrostatic primitive equations of the ocean with two different finite difference techniques. Results show that the dynamics simulated by both models are consistent. Several methods for the running of a model from a known state are tested in the French model: the diagnostic method, the prognostic method, the acceleration of convergence and the robust-diagnostic method

  4. Atmospheric corrosion: statistical validation of models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diaz, V.; Martinez-Luaces, V.; Guineo-Cobs, G.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we discuss two different methods for validation of regression models, applied to corrosion data. One of them is based on the correlation coefficient and the other one is the statistical test of lack of fit. Both methods are used here to analyse fitting of bi logarithmic model in order to predict corrosion for very low carbon steel substrates in rural and urban-industrial atmospheres in Uruguay. Results for parameters A and n of the bi logarithmic model are reported here. For this purpose, all repeated values were used instead of using average values as usual. Modelling is carried out using experimental data corresponding to steel substrates under the same initial meteorological conditions ( in fact, they are put in the rack at the same time). Results of correlation coefficient are compared with the lack of it tested at two different signification levels (α=0.01 and α=0.05). Unexpected differences between them are explained and finally, it is possible to conclude, at least in the studied atmospheres, that the bi logarithmic model does not fit properly the experimental data. (Author) 18 refs

  5. Exploring the Venus global super-rotation using a comprehensive general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendonça, J. M.; Read, P. L.

    2016-12-01

    The atmospheric circulation in Venus is well known to exhibit strong super-rotation. However, the atmospheric mechanisms responsible for the formation of this super-rotation are still not fully understood. In this work, we developed a new Venus general circulation model to study the most likely mechanisms driving the atmosphere to the current observed circulation. Our model includes a new radiative transfer, convection and suitably adapted boundary layer schemes and a dynamical core that takes into account the dependence of the heat capacity at constant pressure with temperature. The new Venus model is able to simulate a super-rotation phenomenon in the cloud region quantitatively similar to the one observed. The mechanisms maintaining the strong winds in the cloud region were found in the model results to be a combination of zonal mean circulation, thermal tides and transient waves. In this process, the semi-diurnal tide excited in the upper clouds has a key contribution in transporting axial angular momentum mainly from the upper atmosphere towards the cloud region. The magnitude of the super-rotation in the cloud region is sensitive to various radiative parameters such as the amount of solar radiative energy absorbed by the surface, which controls the static stability near the surface. In this work, we also discuss the main difficulties in representing the flow below the cloud base in Venus atmospheric models. Our new radiative scheme is more suitable for 3D Venus climate models than those used in previous work due to its easy adaptability to different atmospheric conditions. This flexibility of the model was crucial to explore the uncertainties in the lower atmospheric conditions and may also be used in the future to explore, for example, dynamical-radiative-microphysical feedbacks.

  6. SDG and qualitative trend based model multiple scale validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Dong; Xu, Xin; Yin, Jianjin; Zhang, Hongyu; Zhang, Beike

    2017-09-01

    Verification, Validation and Accreditation (VV&A) is key technology of simulation and modelling. For the traditional model validation methods, the completeness is weak; it is carried out in one scale; it depends on human experience. The SDG (Signed Directed Graph) and qualitative trend based multiple scale validation is proposed. First the SDG model is built and qualitative trends are added to the model. And then complete testing scenarios are produced by positive inference. The multiple scale validation is carried out by comparing the testing scenarios with outputs of simulation model in different scales. Finally, the effectiveness is proved by carrying out validation for a reactor model.

  7. The Hamburg large scale geostrophic ocean general circulation model. Cycle 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maier-Reimer, E.; Mikolajewicz, U.

    1992-02-01

    The rationale for the Large Scale Geostrophic ocean circulation model (LSG-OGCM) is based on the observations that for a large scale ocean circulation model designed for climate studies, the relevant characteristic spatial scales are large compared with the internal Rossby radius throughout most of the ocean, while the characteristic time scales are large compared with the periods of gravity modes and barotropic Rossby wave modes. In the present version of the model, the fast modes have been filtered out by a conventional technique of integrating the full primitive equations, including all terms except the nonlinear advection of momentum, by an implicit time integration method. The free surface is also treated prognostically, without invoking a rigid lid approximation. The numerical scheme is unconditionally stable and has the additional advantage that it can be applied uniformly to the entire globe, including the equatorial and coastal current regions. (orig.)

  8. Cloud-radiative effects on implied oceanic energy transport as simulated by atmospheric general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleckler, P. J.; Randall, D. A.; Boer, G.; Colman, R.; Dix, M.; Galin, V.; Helfand, M.; Kiehl, J.; Kitoh, A.; Lau, W.

    1995-01-01

    This paper summarizes the ocean surface net energy flux simulated by fifteen atmospheric general circulation models constrained by realistically-varying sea surface temperatures and sea ice as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. In general, the simulated energy fluxes are within the very large observational uncertainties. However, the annual mean oceanic meridional heat transport that would be required to balance the simulated surface fluxes is shown to be critically sensitive to the radiative effects of clouds, to the extent that even the sign of the Southern Hemisphere ocean heat transport can be affected by the errors in simulated cloud-radiation interactions. It is suggested that improved treatment of cloud radiative effects should help in the development of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models.

  9. Verification of RBMK-1500 reactor main circulation circuit model with Cathare V1.3L

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jasiulevicius, A.

    2001-01-01

    Among other computer codes, French code CATHARE is also applied for RBMK reactor calculations. In this paper results of such application for Ignalina NPP reactor (RBMK-1500 type) main circulation circuit are presented. Three transients calculations were performed: all main circulation pumps (MCP) trip, trip of one main circulation pump and trip of one main circulation pump without a closure of check valve on the pump line. Calculation results were compared to data from the Ignalina NPP, where all these transients were recorded in the years 1986, 1996 and 1998. The presented studies prove the capability of the CATHARE code to treat thermal-hydraulic transients with a reactor scram in the RBMK, in case of single or multiple pump trips. However, the presented model needs further improvements in order to simulate loss of coolant accidents. For this reason, emergency core cooling system should be included in the model. Additional model improvement is also needed in order to gain more independent pressure behavior in both loops. Also, flow rates through the reactor channels should be modeled by dividing channels into several groups, referring to channel power (in RBMK power produced in a channel, located in different parts of the core is not the same). The point-neutron kinetic model of the CATHARE code is not suitable to predict transients when the reactor is operating at a nominal power level. Such transients would require the use of 3D-neutron kinetics model to describe properly the strong space-time effect on the power distribution in the reactor core

  10. A computational model of the fetal circulation to quantify blood redistribution in intrauterine growth restriction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia Garcia-Canadilla

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR due to placental insufficiency is associated with blood flow redistribution in order to maintain delivery of oxygenated blood to the brain. Given that, in the fetus the aortic isthmus (AoI is a key arterial connection between the cerebral and placental circulations, quantifying AoI blood flow has been proposed to assess this brain sparing effect in clinical practice. While numerous clinical studies have studied this parameter, fundamental understanding of its determinant factors and its quantitative relation with other aspects of haemodynamic remodeling has been limited. Computational models of the cardiovascular circulation have been proposed for exactly this purpose since they allow both for studying the contributions from isolated parameters as well as estimating properties that cannot be directly assessed from clinical measurements. Therefore, a computational model of the fetal circulation was developed, including the key elements related to fetal blood redistribution and using measured cardiac outflow profiles to allow personalization. The model was first calibrated using patient-specific Doppler data from a healthy fetus. Next, in order to understand the contributions of the main parameters determining blood redistribution, AoI and middle cerebral artery (MCA flow changes were studied by variation of cerebral and peripheral-placental resistances. Finally, to study how this affects an individual fetus, the model was fitted to three IUGR cases with different degrees of severity. In conclusion, the proposed computational model provides a good approximation to assess blood flow changes in the fetal circulation. The results support that while MCA flow is mainly determined by a fall in brain resistance, the AoI is influenced by a balance between increased peripheral-placental and decreased cerebral resistances. Personalizing the model allows for quantifying the balance between cerebral and peripheral

  11. Verification of RBMK-1500 reactor main circulation circuit model with Cathare V1.3L

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jasiulevicius, A. [Kaunas University of Technology, Dept. of Thermal and Nuclear Energy, Kaunas (Lithuania)

    2001-07-01

    Among other computer codes, French code CATHARE is also applied for RBMK reactor calculations. In this paper results of such application for Ignalina NPP reactor (RBMK-1500 type) main circulation circuit are presented. Three transients calculations were performed: all main circulation pumps (MCP) trip, trip of one main circulation pump and trip of one main circulation pump without a closure of check valve on the pump line. Calculation results were compared to data from the Ignalina NPP, where all these transients were recorded in the years 1986, 1996 and 1998. The presented studies prove the capability of the CATHARE code to treat thermal-hydraulic transients with a reactor scram in the RBMK, in case of single or multiple pump trips. However, the presented model needs further improvements in order to simulate loss of coolant accidents. For this reason, emergency core cooling system should be included in the model. Additional model improvement is also needed in order to gain more independent pressure behavior in both loops. Also, flow rates through the reactor channels should be modeled by dividing channels into several groups, referring to channel power (in RBMK power produced in a channel, located in different parts of the core is not the same). The point-neutron kinetic model of the CATHARE code is not suitable to predict transients when the reactor is operating at a nominal power level. Such transients would require the use of 3D-neutron kinetics model to describe properly the strong space-time effect on the power distribution in the reactor core.

  12. Unit testing, model validation, and biological simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarma, Gopal P; Jacobs, Travis W; Watts, Mark D; Ghayoomie, S Vahid; Larson, Stephen D; Gerkin, Richard C

    2016-01-01

    The growth of the software industry has gone hand in hand with the development of tools and cultural practices for ensuring the reliability of complex pieces of software. These tools and practices are now acknowledged to be essential to the management of modern software. As computational models and methods have become increasingly common in the biological sciences, it is important to examine how these practices can accelerate biological software development and improve research quality. In this article, we give a focused case study of our experience with the practices of unit testing and test-driven development in OpenWorm, an open-science project aimed at modeling Caenorhabditis elegans. We identify and discuss the challenges of incorporating test-driven development into a heterogeneous, data-driven project, as well as the role of model validation tests, a category of tests unique to software which expresses scientific models.

  13. World Ocean Circulation Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, R. Allyn

    1992-01-01

    The oceans are an equal partner with the atmosphere in the global climate system. The World Ocean Circulation Experiment is presently being implemented to improve ocean models that are useful for climate prediction both by encouraging more model development but more importantly by providing quality data sets that can be used to force or to validate such models. WOCE is the first oceanographic experiment that plans to generate and to use multiparameter global ocean data sets. In order for WOCE to succeed, oceanographers must establish and learn to use more effective methods of assembling, quality controlling, manipulating and distributing oceanographic data.

  14. Prediction of hybrid means from a partial circulant diallel table using the ordinary least square and the mixed model methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Américo José dos Santos Reis

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available By definition, the genetic effects obtained from a circulant diallel table are random. However, because of the methods of analysis, those effects have been considered as fixed. Two different statistical approaches were applied. One assumed the model to be fixed and obtained solutions through the ordinary least square (OLS method. The other assumed a mixed model and estimated the fixed effects (BLUE by generalized least squares (GLS and the best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP of the random effects. The goal of this study was to evaluate the consequences when considering these effects as fixed or random, using the coefficient of correlation between the responses of observed and non-observed hybrids. Crossings were made between S1 inbred lines from two maize populations developed at Universidade Federal de Goiás, the UFG-Samambaia "Dent" and UFG-Samambaia "Flint". A circulant inter-group design was applied, and there were five (s = 5 crossings for each parent. The predictions were made using a reduced model. Diallels with different sizes of s (from 2 to 5 were simulated, and the coefficients of correlation were obtained using two different approaches for each size of s. In the first approach, the observed hybrids were included in both the estimation of the genetic parameters and the coefficient of correlation, while in the second a cross-validation process was employed. In this process, the set of hybrids was divided in two groups: one group, comprising 75% of the original group, to estimate the genetic parameters, and a second one, consisting of the remaining 25%, to validate the predictions. In all cases, a bootstrap process with 200 resamplings was used to generate the empirical distribution of the correlation coefficient. This coefficient showed a decrease as the value of s decreased. The cross-validation method allowed to estimate the bias magnitude in evaluating the correlation coefficient using the same hybrids, to predict the genetic

  15. Two regimes of the Arctic's circulation from ocean models with ice and contaminants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proshutinsky, A Y; Johnson, M

    2001-01-01

    A two-dimensional barotropic, coupled, ocean-ice model with a space resolution of 55.5 km and driven by atmospheric forces, river run-off, and sea-level slope between the Pacific and the Arctic Oceans, has been used to simulate the vertically averaged currents and ice drift in the Arctic Ocean. Results from 43 years of numerical simulations of water and ice motions demonstrate that two wind-driven circulation regimes are possible in the Arctic, a cyclonic and an anti-cyclonic circulation. These two regimes appear to alternate at 5-7 year intervals with the 10-15 year period. It is important to pollution studies to understand which circulation regime prevails at any time. It is anticipated that 1995 is a year with a cyclonic regime, and during this cyclonic phase and possibly during past cyclonic regimes as well, pollutants may reach the Alaskan shelf. The regime shifts demonstrated in this paper are fundamentally important to understanding the Arctic's general circulation and particularly important for estimating pollution transport.

  16. Causes and impacts of changes in the stratospheric meridional circulation in a chemistry-climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garny, Hella

    2011-05-13

    The stratospheric meridional circulation is projected to be subject to changes due to enhanced greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere. This study aims to diagnose and explain long-term changes in the stratospheric meridional circulation using the chemistry-climate model E39CA. The diagnosed strengthening of the circulation is found to be driven by increases in tropical sea surface temperatures which lead to a strengthening and upward shift of the subtropical jets. This enables enhanced vertical propagation of large scale waves into the lower stratosphere, and therefore stronger local wave forcing of the meridional circulation in the tropical lower stratosphere. The impact of changes in transport on the ozone layer is analysed using a newly developed method that allows the separation of the effects of transport and chemistry changes on ozone. It is found that future changes of mean stratospheric ozone concentrations are largely determined by changes in chemistry, while changes in transport of ozone play a minor role. (orig.)

  17. Numerical model of the circulation and dispersion in the east Adriatic coastal waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beg Paklar, Gordana; Dzoic, Tomislav; Koracin, Darko; Matijevic, Slavica; Grbec, Branka; Ivatek-Sahdan, Stjepan

    2017-04-01

    The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) was implemented to reproduce physical properties of the area around submarine outlet Stobrec in the middle Adriatic coastal area. ROMS model run was forced with realistic atmospheric fields obtained from meteorological model Aladin, climatological river discharges, tides and dynamics of the surrounding area imposed at the open boundaries. Atmospheric forcing included momentum, heat and water fluxes calculated interactively from the Aladin surface fields during ROMS model simulations. Simulated fields from the Adriatic and shelf scale models were used to prescribe the initial and open boundary conditions for fine resolution coastal domain. Model results were compared with available CTD measurements and discussed in the light of the climatological circulation and thermohaline properties of the middle Adriatic coastal area. Variability in the circulation is related to the prevailing atmospheric conditions, changes in the hydrological conditions and water mass exchange at the open boundaries. Basic features of the coastal circulation are well reproduced by the ROMS model, as well as temperatures and salinities which are within corresponding seasonal intervals, although with lower stratification than measured ones. In order to reproduce dispersion of the passive tracer the ROMS model was coupled with Lagrangian dispersion model. Multiyear monitoring of the physical, chemical and biological parameters around the sewage outlet was used to assess the quality of the dispersion model results. Among measured parameters, redox potential of the surface sediment layer was selected to be compared with model results as its negative values are direct consequence of increased organic matter input that can be attributed to the sewage system inflow.

  18. Ability of the CCSR-NIES atmospheric general circulation model in the stratosphere. Chapter 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugata, S.

    1997-01-01

    A quantitative evaluation of climate change such as global warming is impossible without a high-quality numerical model which describes the dynamics of the climate system and the circulation of energy and materials. The Center for Climate Research - National Institute for Environmental Studies (CCSR-NIES) atmospheric general circulation model (hereafter, GCM for a general circulation model) has been developed to obtain such a high-quality model. The emphasis of the development has been laid on the troposphere and the lower stratosphere below about 30 km altitude. This is natural because human beings live on the Earth's surface and the condition of the lower atmosphere directly affects human life. However, the stratosphere and the upper atmosphere beyond it have recently been the focus even in investigations of climate change, because they are relevant to many issues which relate closely to tropospheric climate change, such as the ozone hole, material exchange between the stratosphere and the troposphere, and physical interaction between the stratosphere and troposphere. This study extended the region of the CCSR-NIES GCM to the lower mesosphere (about 70 km from the surface). This is our first attempt to investigate this GCM's climatology in the upper atmosphere, although some studies for QBO in the middle and lower stratosphere had been done with the GCM

  19. Assimilation of TOPEX/POSEIDON Altimeter Data into a Global Ocean Circulation Model: Are the Results Any Good?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukumori, I.; Fu, L. L.; Chao, Y.

    1998-01-01

    The feasibility of assimilating satellite altimetry data into a global ocean general ocean general circulation model is studied. Three years of TOPEX/POSEIDON data is analyzed using a global, three-dimensional, nonlinear primitive equation model.

  20. A computational model-based validation of Guyton's analysis of cardiac output and venous return curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukkamala, R.; Cohen, R. J.; Mark, R. G.

    2002-01-01

    Guyton developed a popular approach for understanding the factors responsible for cardiac output (CO) regulation in which 1) the heart-lung unit and systemic circulation are independently characterized via CO and venous return (VR) curves, and 2) average CO and right atrial pressure (RAP) of the intact circulation are predicted by graphically intersecting the curves. However, this approach is virtually impossible to verify experimentally. We theoretically evaluated the approach with respect to a nonlinear, computational model of the pulsatile heart and circulation. We developed two sets of open circulation models to generate CO and VR curves, differing by the manner in which average RAP was varied. One set applied constant RAPs, while the other set applied pulsatile RAPs. Accurate prediction of intact, average CO and RAP was achieved only by intersecting the CO and VR curves generated with pulsatile RAPs because of the pulsatility and nonlinearity (e.g., systemic venous collapse) of the intact model. The CO and VR curves generated with pulsatile RAPs were also practically independent. This theoretical study therefore supports the validity of Guyton's graphical analysis.

  1. Regional eddy vorticity transport and the equilibrium vorticity budgets of a numerical model ocean circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, D. E.; Holland, W. R.

    1981-01-01

    A mean vorticity budget analysis is presented of Holland's (1978) numerical ocean general circulation experiment. The stable budgets are compared with classical circulation theory to emphasize the ways in which the mesoscale motions of the model alter (or leave unaltered) classical vorticity balances. The basinwide meridional transports of vorticity by the mean flow and by the mesoscale flow in the mean are evaluated to establish the role(s) of the mesoscale in the larger scale equilibrium vorticity transports. The vorticity equation for this model fluid system is presented and the budget analysis method is described. Vorticity budgets over the selected regions and on a larger scale are given, and a summary of budget results is provided along with remarks about the utility of this type of analysis.

  2. Validation of A Global Hydrological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doell, P.; Lehner, B.; Kaspar, F.; Vassolo, S.

    due to the precipitation mea- surement errors. Even though the explicit modeling of wetlands and lakes leads to a much improved modeling of both the vertical water balance and the lateral transport of water, not enough information is included in WGHM to accurately capture the hy- drology of these water bodies. Certainly, the reliability of model results is highest at the locations at which WGHM was calibrated. The validation indicates that reliability for cells inside calibrated basins is satisfactory if the basin is relatively homogeneous. Analyses of the few available stations outside of calibrated basins indicate a reason- ably high model reliability, particularly in humid regions.

  3. Oceanic circulation models help to predict global biogeography of pelagic yellow-bellied sea snake

    OpenAIRE

    Brischoux, François; Cotté, Cédric; Lillywhite, Harvey B.; Bailleul, Frédéric; Lalire, Maxime; Gaspar, Philippe

    2016-01-01

    It is well recognized that most marine vertebrates, and especially tetrapods, precisely orient and actively move in apparently homogeneous oceanic environments. Here, we investigate the presumptive role of oceanic currents in biogeographic patterns observed in a secondarily marine tetrapod, the yellow-bellied sea snake (Hydrophis [Pelamis] platurus). State-of-the-art world ocean circulation models show how H. platurus, the only pelagic species of sea snake, can potentially exploit oceanic cur...

  4. Validation of HEDR models. Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, B.A.; Simpson, J.C.; Eslinger, P.W.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.; Thiede, M.E.; Walters, W.H.

    1994-05-01

    The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project has developed a set of computer models for estimating the possible radiation doses that individuals may have received from past Hanford Site operations. This document describes the validation of these models. In the HEDR Project, the model validation exercise consisted of comparing computational model estimates with limited historical field measurements and experimental measurements that are independent of those used to develop the models. The results of any one test do not mean that a model is valid. Rather, the collection of tests together provide a level of confidence that the HEDR models are valid.

  5. Ocean circulation model predicts high genetic structure observed in a long-lived pelagic developer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunday, J M; Popovic, I; Palen, W J; Foreman, M G G; Hart, M W

    2014-10-01

    Understanding the movement of genes and individuals across marine seascapes is a long-standing challenge in marine ecology and can inform our understanding of local adaptation, the persistence and movement of populations, and the spatial scale of effective management. Patterns of gene flow in the ocean are often inferred based on population genetic analyses coupled with knowledge of species' dispersive life histories. However, genetic structure is the result of time-integrated processes and may not capture present-day connectivity between populations. Here, we use a high-resolution oceanographic circulation model to predict larval dispersal along the complex coastline of western Canada that includes the transition between two well-studied zoogeographic provinces. We simulate dispersal in a benthic sea star with a 6-10 week pelagic larval phase and test predictions of this model against previously observed genetic structure including a strong phylogeographic break within the zoogeographical transition zone. We also test predictions with new genetic sampling in a site within the phylogeographic break. We find that the coupled genetic and circulation model predicts the high degree of genetic structure observed in this species, despite its long pelagic duration. High genetic structure on this complex coastline can thus be explained through ocean circulation patterns, which tend to retain passive larvae within 20-50 km of their parents, suggesting a necessity for close-knit design of Marine Protected Area networks. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. A heuristic simulation model of Lake Ontario circulation and mass balance transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, J.E.; Chalupnicki, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    The redistribution of suspended organisms and materials by large-scale currents is part of natural ecological processes in large aquatic systems but can contribute to ecosystem disruption when exotic elements are introduced into the system. Toxic compounds and planktonic organisms spend various lengths of time in suspension before settling to the bottom or otherwise being removed. We constructed a simple physical simulation model, including the influence of major tributaries, to qualitatively examine circulation patterns in Lake Ontario. We used a simple mass balance approach to estimate the relative water input to and export from each of 10 depth regime-specific compartments (nearshore vs. offshore) comprising Lake Ontario. Despite its simplicity, our model produced circulation patterns similar to those reported by more complex studies in the literature. A three-gyre pattern, with the classic large counterclockwise central lake circulation, and a simpler two-gyre system were both observed. These qualitative simulations indicate little offshore transport along the south shore, except near the mouths of the Niagara River and Oswego River. Complex flow structure was evident, particularly near the Niagara River mouth and in offshore waters of the eastern basin. Average Lake Ontario residence time is 8 years, but the fastest model pathway indicated potential transport of plankton through the lake in as little as 60 days. This simulation illustrates potential invasion pathways and provides rough estimates of planktonic larval dispersal or chemical transport among nearshore and offshore areas of Lake Ontario. ?? 2011 Taylor & Francis.

  7. Geochemistry Model Validation Report: Material Degradation and Release Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    H. Stockman

    2001-09-28

    The purpose of this Analysis and Modeling Report (AMR) is to validate the Material Degradation and Release (MDR) model that predicts degradation and release of radionuclides from a degrading waste package (WP) in the potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. This AMR is prepared according to ''Technical Work Plan for: Waste Package Design Description for LA'' (Ref. 17). The intended use of the MDR model is to estimate the long-term geochemical behavior of waste packages (WPs) containing U. S . Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) codisposed with High Level Waste (HLW) glass, commercial SNF, and Immobilized Plutonium Ceramic (Pu-ceramic) codisposed with HLW glass. The model is intended to predict (1) the extent to which criticality control material, such as gadolinium (Gd), will remain in the WP after corrosion of the initial WP, (2) the extent to which fissile Pu and uranium (U) will be carried out of the degraded WP by infiltrating water, and (3) the chemical composition and amounts of minerals and other solids left in the WP. The results of the model are intended for use in criticality calculations. The scope of the model validation report is to (1) describe the MDR model, and (2) compare the modeling results with experimental studies. A test case based on a degrading Pu-ceramic WP is provided to help explain the model. This model does not directly feed the assessment of system performance. The output from this model is used by several other models, such as the configuration generator, criticality, and criticality consequence models, prior to the evaluation of system performance. This document has been prepared according to AP-3.10Q, ''Analyses and Models'' (Ref. 2), and prepared in accordance with the technical work plan (Ref. 17).

  8. Geochemistry Model Validation Report: Material Degradation and Release Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stockman, H.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this Analysis and Modeling Report (AMR) is to validate the Material Degradation and Release (MDR) model that predicts degradation and release of radionuclides from a degrading waste package (WP) in the potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. This AMR is prepared according to ''Technical Work Plan for: Waste Package Design Description for LA'' (Ref. 17). The intended use of the MDR model is to estimate the long-term geochemical behavior of waste packages (WPs) containing U. S . Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) codisposed with High Level Waste (HLW) glass, commercial SNF, and Immobilized Plutonium Ceramic (Pu-ceramic) codisposed with HLW glass. The model is intended to predict (1) the extent to which criticality control material, such as gadolinium (Gd), will remain in the WP after corrosion of the initial WP, (2) the extent to which fissile Pu and uranium (U) will be carried out of the degraded WP by infiltrating water, and (3) the chemical composition and amounts of minerals and other solids left in the WP. The results of the model are intended for use in criticality calculations. The scope of the model validation report is to (1) describe the MDR model, and (2) compare the modeling results with experimental studies. A test case based on a degrading Pu-ceramic WP is provided to help explain the model. This model does not directly feed the assessment of system performance. The output from this model is used by several other models, such as the configuration generator, criticality, and criticality consequence models, prior to the evaluation of system performance. This document has been prepared according to AP-3.10Q, ''Analyses and Models'' (Ref. 2), and prepared in accordance with the technical work plan (Ref. 17)

  9. Improving the representation of turbulence and clouds in cloud resolving models and general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogenschutz, Peter A.

    Over the past few years a new type of general circulation model (GCM) has emerged that is known as the multiscale modeling framework (MMF). The Colorado State University (CSU) MMF represents a coupling between the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) GCM and the System of Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) cloud resolving model (CRM). Within this MMF the embedded CRM replaces the traditionally used parameterized moist physics in CAM to represent subgrid-scale (SGS) convection. However, due to substantial increases of computational burden associated with the MMF, the embedded CRM is typically run with a horizontal grid size of 4 km. With a horizontal grid size of 4 km, a low-order closure CRM cannot adequately represent shallow convective processes, such as trade-wind cumulus or stratocumulus. A computationally inexpensive parameterization of turbulence and clouds is presented in this dissertation. An extensive a priori test is performed to determine which functional form of an assumed PDF is best suited for coarse-grid CRMs for both deep shallow and deep convection. The diagnostic approach to determine the input moments needed for the assumed PDFs uses the subgrid-scale (SGS) turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) as the basis for the parameterization. The term known as the turbulent length scale (L) is examined, as it is needed to parameterize the dissipation of turbulence and therefore is needed to better balance the budgets of SGS TKE. A new formulation of this term is added to the model code which appears to be able to partition resolved and SGS TKE fairly accurately. Results from "offline" tests of the simple diagnostic closure within SAM shows that the cloud and turbulence properties of shallow convection can be adequately represented when compared to large eddy simulation (LES) benchmark simulations. Results are greatly improved when compared to the standard version of SAM. The preliminary test of the scheme within the embedded CRM of the MMF shows promising results with the

  10. Dynamic model of a natural water circulation boiler suitable for on-line monitoring of fossil/alternative fuel plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sedić, Almir; Katulić, Stjepko; Pavković, Danijel

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Derivation of dynamic model of a natural water circulation boiler is presented. • Model is derived by employing basic laws of conservation of mass, energy and momentum. • Thus obtained boiler model does not include empirical relationships. • Model is validated against experimental data related to an external disturbance event. • The final model is used for simulation analysis/assessment of key boiler quantities. - Abstract: The environmental protection policies and legal obligations motivate process industries to implement new low-emission and high-efficiency technologies. For the purpose of production process optimization and related control system design it is worthwhile to first build an appropriate process model. Apart from favorable execution speed, accuracy, and reliability features, the model also needs to be straightforward and only include the physical and design characteristics of the overall plant and its individual components, instead of relying on empirical relationships. To this end, this paper presents a nonlinear dynamic model of the single-drum natural-circulation steam boiler evaporator circuit, based exclusively on the fundamental physical laws of conservation of mass, energy and momentum, wherein the reliance upon empirical relationships has been entirely avoided. The presented boiler system modeling approach is based on the analysis of the physical phenomena within the boiler drum, as well as within downcomer and furnace tubes, and it also takes into account the boiler system design-specific features such as cyclone steam separators, thus facilitating the derivation of a fully-physical process model. Due to the straightforwardness of the derived process model, it should also be useful for the analysis of similar steam boiler facilities, requiring only adjustments of key operational and design parameters such as operating pressure, temperature, steam capacity and characteristics of ancillary equipment such as pumps. To

  11. Validating agent based models through virtual worlds.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lakkaraju, Kiran; Whetzel, Jonathan H.; Lee, Jina; Bier, Asmeret Brooke; Cardona-Rivera, Rogelio E.; Bernstein, Jeremy Ray Rhythm

    2014-01-01

    As the US continues its vigilance against distributed, embedded threats, understanding the political and social structure of these groups becomes paramount for predicting and dis- rupting their attacks. Agent-based models (ABMs) serve as a powerful tool to study these groups. While the popularity of social network tools (e.g., Facebook, Twitter) has provided extensive communication data, there is a lack of ne-grained behavioral data with which to inform and validate existing ABMs. Virtual worlds, in particular massively multiplayer online games (MMOG), where large numbers of people interact within a complex environ- ment for long periods of time provide an alternative source of data. These environments provide a rich social environment where players engage in a variety of activities observed between real-world groups: collaborating and/or competing with other groups, conducting battles for scarce resources, and trading in a market economy. Strategies employed by player groups surprisingly re ect those seen in present-day con icts, where players use diplomacy or espionage as their means for accomplishing their goals. In this project, we propose to address the need for ne-grained behavioral data by acquiring and analyzing game data a commercial MMOG, referred to within this report as Game X. The goals of this research were: (1) devising toolsets for analyzing virtual world data to better inform the rules that govern a social ABM and (2) exploring how virtual worlds could serve as a source of data to validate ABMs established for analogous real-world phenomena. During this research, we studied certain patterns of group behavior to compliment social modeling e orts where a signi cant lack of detailed examples of observed phenomena exists. This report outlines our work examining group behaviors that underly what we have termed the Expression-To-Action (E2A) problem: determining the changes in social contact that lead individuals/groups to engage in a particular behavior

  12. Evaluation of water vapor distribution in general circulation models using satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soden, Brian J.; Bretherton, Francis P.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a comparison of the water vapor distribution obtained from two general circulation models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM), with satellite observations of total precipitable water (TPW) from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and upper tropospheric relative humidity (UTH) from GOES. Overall, both models are successful in capturing the primary features of the observed water vapor distribution and its seasonal variation. For the ECMWF model, however, a systematic moist bias in TPW is noted over well-known stratocumulus regions in the eastern subtropical oceans. Comparison with radiosonde profiles suggests that this problem is attributable to difficulties in modeling the shallowness of the boundary layer and large vertical water vapor gradients which characterize these regions. In comparison, the CCM is more successful in capturing the low values of TPW in the stratocumulus regions, although it tends to exhibit a dry bias over the eastern half of the subtropical oceans and a corresponding moist bias in the western half. The CCM also significantly overestimates the daily variability of the moisture fields in convective regions, suggesting a problem in simulating the temporal nature of moisture transport by deep convection. Comparison of the monthly mean UTH distribution indicates generally larger discrepancies than were noted for TPW owing to the greater influence of large-scale dynamical processes in determining the distribution of UTH. In particular, the ECMWF model exhibits a distinct dry bias along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and a moist bias over the subtropical descending branches of the Hadley cell, suggesting an underprediction in the strength of the Hadley circulation. The CCM, on the other hand, demonstrates greater discrepancies in UTH than are observed for the ECMWF model, but none that are as

  13. Refining the Subseafloor Circulation Model of the Middle Valley Hydrothermal System Using Fluid Geochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inderbitzen, K. E.; Wheat, C. G.; Baker, P. A.; Fisher, A. T.

    2014-12-01

    Currently, fluid circulation patterns and the evolution of rock/fluid compositions as circulation occurs in subseafloor hydrothermal systems are poorly constrained. Sedimented spreading centers provide a unique opportunity to study subsurface flow because sediment acts as an insulating blanket that traps heat from the cooling magma body and limits: (a) potential flow paths for seawater to recharge the aquifer in permeable upper basaltic basement and (b) points of altered fluid egress. This also allows for a range of thermal and geochemical gradients to exist near the sediment-water interface. Models of fluid circulation patterns in this type of hydrologic setting have been generated (eg. Stein and Fisher, 2001); however fluid chemistry datasets have not previously been used to test the model's viability. We address this issue by integrating the existing circulation model with fluid compositional data collected from sediment pore waters and high temperature hydrothermal vents located in Middle Valley on the Juan de Fuca Ridge. Middle Valley hosts a variety of hydrologic regimes: including areas of fluid recharge (Site 855), active venting (Site 858/1036; Dead Dog vent field), recent venting (Site 856/1035; Bent Hill Massive Sulfide deposit) and a section of heavily sedimented basement located between recharge and discharge sites (Site 857). We will present new results based on thermal and geochemical data from the area of active venting (Sites 858 and 1036), that was collected during Ocean Drilling Program Legs 139 and 169 and a subsequent heat flow/gravity coring effort. These results illuminate fine scale controls on secondary recharge and fluid flow within the sediment section at Site 858/1036. The current status of high temperature vents in this area (based on observations made in July, 2014) will also be outlined.

  14. Status of the IAEA coordinated research project on natural circulation phenomena, modelling, and reliability of passive systems that utilize natural circulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reyes, J.N. Jr.; Cleveland, J.; Aksan, N.

    2004-01-01

    The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has established a Coordinated Research Project (CRP) titled ''Natural Circulation Phenomena, Modelling and Reliability of Passive Safety Systems that Utilize Natural Circulation. '' This work has been organized within the framework of the IAEA Department of Nuclear Energy's Technical Working Groups for Advanced Technologies for Light Water Reactors and Heavy Water Reactors (the TWG-LWR and the TWG-HWR). This CRP is part of IAEA's effort to foster international collaborations that strive to improve the economic performance of future water-cooled nuclear power plants while meeting stringent safety requirements. Thus far, IAEA has established 12 research agreements with organizations from industrialized Member States and 3 research contracts with organizations from developing Member States. The objective of the CRP is to enhance our understanding of natural circulation phenomena in water-cooled reactors and passive safety systems. The CRP participants are particularly interested in establishing a natural circulation and passive safety system thermal hydraulic database that can be used to benchmark computer codes for advanced reactor systems design and safety analysis. An important aspect of this CRP relates to developing methodologies to assess the reliability of passive safety systems in advanced reactor designs. This paper describes the motivation and objectives of the CRP, the research plan, and the role of each of the participating organizations. (author)

  15. Results of an interactively coupled atmospheric chemistry – general circulation model: Comparison with observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Hein

    2001-04-01

    Full Text Available The coupled climate-chemistry model ECHAM4.L39(DLR/CHEM is presented which enables a simultaneous treatment of meteorology and atmospheric chemistry and their feedbacks. This is the first model which interactively combines a general circulation model with a chemical model, employing most of the important reactions and species necessary to describe the stratospheric and upper tropospheric ozone chemistry, and which is computationally fast enough to allow long-term integrations with currently available computer resources. This is possible as the model time-step used for the chemistry can be chosen as large as the integration time-step for the dynamics. Vertically the atmosphere is discretized by 39 levels from the surface up to the top layer which is centred at 10 hPa, with a relatively high vertical resolution of approximately 700 m near the extra-tropical tropopause. We present the results of a control simulation representing recent conditions (1990 and compare it to available observations. The focus is on investigations of stratospheric dynamics and chemistry relevant to describe the stratospheric ozone layer. ECHAM4.L39(DLR/CHEM reproduces main features of stratospheric dynamics in the arctic vortex region, including stratospheric warming events. This constitutes a major improvement compared to earlier model versions. However, apparent shortcomings in Antarctic circulation and temperatures persist. The seasonal and interannual variability of the ozone layer is simulated in accordance with observations. Activation and deactivation of chlorine in the polar stratospheric vortices and their inter-hemispheric differences are reproduced. Considering methane oxidation as part of the dynamic-chemistry feedback results in an improved representation of the spatial distribution of stratospheric water vapour concentrations. The current model constitutes a powerful tool to investigate, for instance, the combined direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic

  16. Results of an interactively coupled atmospheric chemistry – general circulation model: Comparison with observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Hein

    Full Text Available The coupled climate-chemistry model ECHAM4.L39(DLR/CHEM is presented which enables a simultaneous treatment of meteorology and atmospheric chemistry and their feedbacks. This is the first model which interactively combines a general circulation model with a chemical model, employing most of the important reactions and species necessary to describe the stratospheric and upper tropospheric ozone chemistry, and which is computationally fast enough to allow long-term integrations with currently available computer resources. This is possible as the model time-step used for the chemistry can be chosen as large as the integration time-step for the dynamics. Vertically the atmosphere is discretized by 39 levels from the surface up to the top layer which is centred at 10 hPa, with a relatively high vertical resolution of approximately 700 m near the extra-tropical tropopause. We present the results of a control simulation representing recent conditions (1990 and compare it to available observations. The focus is on investigations of stratospheric dynamics and chemistry relevant to describe the stratospheric ozone layer. ECHAM4.L39(DLR/CHEM reproduces main features of stratospheric dynamics in the arctic vortex region, including stratospheric warming events. This constitutes a major improvement compared to earlier model versions. However, apparent shortcomings in Antarctic circulation and temperatures persist. The seasonal and interannual variability of the ozone layer is simulated in accordance with observations. Activation and deactivation of chlorine in the polar stratospheric vortices and their inter-hemispheric differences are reproduced. Considering methane oxidation as part of the dynamic-chemistry feedback results in an improved representation of the spatial distribution of stratospheric water vapour concentrations. The current model constitutes a powerful tool to investigate, for instance, the combined direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic

  17. Clouds and the extratropical circulation response to global warming in a hierarchy of global atmosphere models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, A.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models project that global warming will lead to substantial changes in extratropical jet streams. Yet, many quantitative aspects of warming-induced jet stream changes remain uncertain, and recent work has indicated an important role of clouds and their radiative interactions. Here, I will investigate how cloud-radiative changes impact the zonal-mean extratropical circulation response under global warming using a hierarchy of global atmosphere models. I will first focus on aquaplanet setups with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), which reproduce the model spread found in realistic simulations with interactive SSTs. Simulations with two CMIP5 models MPI-ESM and IPSL-CM5A and prescribed clouds show that half of the circulation response can be attributed to cloud changes. The rise of tropical high-level clouds and the upward and poleward movement of midlatitude high-level clouds lead to poleward jet shifts. High-latitude low-level cloud changes shift the jet poleward in one model but not in the other. The impact of clouds on the jet operates via the atmospheric radiative forcing that is created by the cloud changes and is qualitatively reproduced in a dry Held-Suarez model, although the latter is too sensitive because of its simplified treatment of diabatic processes. I will then show that the aquaplanet results also hold when the models are used in a realistic setup that includes continents and seasonality. I will further juxtapose these prescribed-SST simulations with interactive-SST simulations and show that atmospheric and surface cloud-radiative interactions impact the jet poleward jet shifts in about equal measure. Finally, I will discuss the cloud impact on regional and seasonal circulation changes.

  18. Numerical Modelling Approaches for Assessing Improvements to the Flow Circulation in a Small Lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng He

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Kamaniskeg Lake is a long, narrow, and deep small lake located in the northern part of Ontario, Canada. The goals of this paper were to examine various options to improve the water quality in the northern part of the lake by altering the local hydraulic flow conditions. Towards this end, a preliminary screening suggested that the flow circulation could be increased around a central island (Mask Island in the northern part of the lake by opening up an existing causeway connecting the mainland and central island. Three-dimensional (3D hydraulic and transport models were adopted in this paper to investigate the hydraulic conditions under various wind forces and causeway structures. The modelling results show that opening the causeway in a few places is unlikely to generate a large flow circulation around the central island. Full circulation only appears to be possible if the causeway is fully removed and a strong wind blows in a favourable direction. The possible reasons for existing water quality variations at the intake of a local WTP (water treatment plant are also explored in the paper.

  19. An Improved Heat Budget Estimation Including Bottom Effects for General Ocean Circulation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carder, Kendall; Warrior, Hari; Otis, Daniel; Chen, R. F.

    2001-01-01

    This paper studies the effects of the underwater light field on heat-budget calculations of general ocean circulation models for shallow waters. The presence of a bottom significantly alters the estimated heat budget in shallow waters, which affects the corresponding thermal stratification and hence modifies the circulation. Based on the data collected during the COBOP field experiment near the Bahamas, we have used a one-dimensional turbulence closure model to show the influence of the bottom reflection and absorption on the sea surface temperature field. The water depth has an almost one-to-one correlation with the temperature rise. Effects of varying the bottom albedo by replacing the sea grass bed with a coral sand bottom, also has an appreciable effect on the heat budget of the shallow regions. We believe that the differences in the heat budget for the shallow areas will have an influence on the local circulation processes and especially on the evaporative and long-wave heat losses for these areas. The ultimate effects on humidity and cloudiness of the region are expected to be significant as well.

  20. Validation of the community radiative transfer model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding Shouguo; Yang Ping; Weng Fuzhong; Liu Quanhua; Han Yong; Delst, Paul van; Li Jun; Baum, Bryan

    2011-01-01

    To validate the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) developed by the U.S. Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA), the discrete ordinate radiative transfer (DISORT) model and the line-by-line radiative transfer model (LBLRTM) are combined in order to provide a reference benchmark. Compared with the benchmark, the CRTM appears quite accurate for both clear sky and ice cloud radiance simulations with RMS errors below 0.2 K, except for clouds with small ice particles. In a computer CPU run time comparison, the CRTM is faster than DISORT by approximately two orders of magnitude. Using the operational MODIS cloud products and the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) atmospheric profiles as an input, the CRTM is employed to simulate the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiances. The CRTM simulations are shown to be in reasonably close agreement with the AIRS measurements (the discrepancies are within 2 K in terms of brightness temperature difference). Furthermore, the impact of uncertainties in the input cloud properties and atmospheric profiles on the CRTM simulations has been assessed. The CRTM-based brightness temperatures (BTs) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), for both thin (τ 30) clouds, are highly sensitive to uncertainties in atmospheric temperature and cloud top pressure. However, for an optically thick cloud, the CRTM-based BTs are not sensitive to the uncertainties of cloud optical thickness, effective particle size, and atmospheric humidity profiles. On the contrary, the uncertainties of the CRTM-based TOA BTs resulting from effective particle size and optical thickness are not negligible in an optically thin cloud.

  1. Development of a transient calculation model for a closed sodium natural circulation loop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Won Pyo; Ha, Kwi Seok; Jeong, Hae Yong; Heo, Sun; Lee, Yong Bum

    2003-09-01

    A natural circulation loop has usually adopted for a Liquid Metal Reactor (LMR) because of its high reliability. Up-rating of the current KALIMER capacity requires an additional PDRC to the existing PVCS to remove its decay heat under an accident. As the system analysis code currently used for LMR in Korea does not feature a stand alone capability to simulate a closed natural circulation loop, it is not eligible to be applied to PDRC. To supplement its limitation, a steady state calculation model had been developed during the first phase, and development of the transient model has successively carried out to close the present study. The developed model will then be coupled with the system analysis code, SSC-K to assess a long term cooling for the new conceptual design. The incompressibility assumption of sodium which allows the circuit to be modeled with a single loop flow, makes the model greatly simplified comparing with LWR. Some thermal-hydraulic models developed during this study can be effectively applied to other system analysis codes which require such component models, and the present development will also contribute to establishment of a code system for the LMR analysis

  2. Modelling the circulation on the continental shelf of the province Khanh Hoa in Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barthel, Knut; Rosland, Rune; Thai, Ngoc Chien

    2009-04-01

    A model simulation of the circulation on the continental shelf of the Khanh Hoa province in central Vietnam during the year 2004 is presented. The model, a three-dimensional baroclinic z-coordinate model (the Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model), is implemented with a horizontal resolution of about 1 km. It is initialised with temperature and salinity fields taken from the Levitus data, and by the two main tidal constituents. The model is forced by daily fields of wind stress, air temperature, wind speed, and cloudiness taken from NCEP, and by monthly mean river runoff values. At the open boundary sea surface displacements are prescribed by the tidal variation and by the steric height determined from the density anomalies determined from climatological values of temperature and salinity. The modelled circulation reflects the monsoonal forcing fields, and reveals downwelling during winter and upwelling during summer. The modelled hydrography is compared with measured profiles, and some biases are found. The flushing times of three bays along the Khanh Hoa coast are calculated. The relative influence of river runoff, tides, and weather on the flushing times is discussed.

  3. Modelling the Effect of Large Submarine Sandslides on the Ocean Circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mozzato, A.; Munday, D. R.; Johnson, H. L.; Talling, P. J.

    2016-02-01

    Submarine landslide can be orders of magnitude larger than terrestrial landslide, moving up to thousands of kilometers of sediment. Submarine landslides have been suggested to be able to play an important role in extreme climate events although at present no study has been focused on this aspect. The Storegga Slide is the biggest Holocene Slide mapped off the Norwegian Margin, with an estimated volume of 3000 km3. The slide failure is coincident with the last major cold event, the 8.2k cold event. The work presented is focused on the investigation of the connection between the Storegga Slide and the 8.2k cold event. The main focus is the study of the dense mud cloud generated after the release of the landslide. Studies have suggested that the generated mud cloud have had a concentration as high as 4% and a height of 800m. The hypothesis tested is if this dense mud cloud can interfere with the meridional overturning circulation at to which extent. For this study a regional Arctic coupled ocean-sea-ice model was set up using the MITgcm general circulation model. The mud cloud was simulated using salinity perturbation as a proxy for the increased density of the water column. Results indicate a strong response from the ocean currents to the perturbation. The dense water mass formed by the perturbation moves northward slowly infilling the Arctic and affecting the whole water column up to the top. The results so far exclude a direct effect of the Storegga Slide on the MOC via a perturbation of the dense water formation in the North Atlantic. However, given the response of the circulation to the perturbation the results suggest that the Storegga Slide could have played a role in the 8.2k cold event. Work is still needed to precisely assess the magnitude of the impact of the perturbation on the circulation and the dynamics of this effect.

  4. Potential feedback mechanism between phytoplankton and upper ocean circulation with oceanic radiative transfer processes influenced by phytoplankton - Numerical ocean, general circulation models and an analytical solution

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nakamoto, S.; Kano, M.; PrasannaKumar, S.; Oberhuber, J.M.; Muneyama, K.; Ueyoshi, K.; Subrahmanyam, B.; Nakata, K.; Lai, C.A.; Frouin, R.

    and Dickey (1987) demonstrate that the at- tenuation of visible energy and photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) (Morel, 1978) are primarily functions of chlorophyll pigments. iturriaga and Potential Feedback Mechanism 257 Siegel (1989) reported... isoPYcnal coordinate (BPYC) general circulation model (Oberhuber, 1993), Nakamoto et al. (2001) showed that surface chlorophyll pigments in the equatorial Pacific not only influence vertical penetration of solar ra- diation, but also modify...

  5. Thermospheric tides simulated by the national center for atmospheric research thermosphere-ionosphere general circulation model at equinox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fesen, C.G.; Roble, R.G.; Ridley, E.C.

    1993-01-01

    The authors use the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) thermosphere/ionosphere general circulation model (TIGCM) to model tides and dynamics in the thermosphere. This model incorporates the latest advances in the thermosphere general circulation model. Model results emphasized the 70 degree W longitude region to overlap a series of incoherent radar scatter installations. Data and the model are available on data bases. The results of this theoretical modeling are compared with available data, and with prediction of more empirical models. In general there is broad agreement within the comparisons

  6. Assessing Low Frequency Climate Signals in Global Circulation Models using an Integrated Hydrologic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niswonger, R. G.; Huntington, J. L.

    2010-12-01

    Climate signals with periodicities of approximately one decade are pervasive in long-term streamflow records for streams in the western United States that receive significant baseflow. The driver of these signals is unknown but hypotheses have been presented, such as variations in solar input to the Earth, or harmonics of internal (i.e., processes in the ocean and troposphere) forcings like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Climate signals of about 1 decade are important for several reasons, including their relation to climate extremes (i.e., droughts and floods), and because the drivers of these climate signals are clearly important for projecting future climate conditions. Furthermore, identifying the drivers of these climate signals is important for separating the relative impacts of human production of greenhouse gases on global warming verses external drivers of climate change, such as sunspot cycles. Studies using Global Circulation Models (GCMs) that do not incorporate solar forcings associated with sun spots have identified oscillations of about a decade long in certain model output. However, these oscillations can be difficult to identify in simulated precipitation data due to high frequency variations (less than 1 year) that obscure low frequency (decade) signals. We have found that simulations using an integrated hydrologic model (IHM) called GSFLOW reproduce decade-long oscillations in streamflow when driven by measured precipitation records, and that these oscillations are also present in simulated streamflow when driven by temperature and precipitation data projected by GCMs. Because the IHM acts as a low-pass filter that reveals low frequency signals (i.e. decadal oscillations), they can be used to assess GCMs in terms of their ability to reproduce important low-frequency climate oscillations. We will present results from GSFLOW applied to three basins in the eastern Sierra Nevada driven by 100 years of

  7. A computational model for estimating the mechanics of horizontal flapping flight in bats: model description and validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watts, P; Mitchell, E J; Swartz, S M

    2001-08-01

    We combine three-dimensional descriptions of the movement patterns of the shoulder, elbow, carpus, third metacarpophalangeal joint and wingtip with a constant-circulation estimation of aerodynamic force to model the wing mechanics of the grey-headed flying fox (Pteropus poliocephalus) in level flight. Once rigorously validated, this computer model can be used to study diverse aspects of flight. In the model, we partitioned the wing into a series of chordwise segments and calculated the magnitude of segmental aerodynamic forces assuming an elliptical, spanwise distribution of circulation at the middle of the downstroke. The lift component of the aerodynamic force is typically an order of magnitude greater than the thrust component. The largest source of drag is induced drag, which is approximately an order of magnitude greater than body form and skin friction drag. Using this model and standard engineering beam theory, we calculate internal reaction forces, moments and stresses at the humeral and radial midshaft during flight. To assess the validity of our model, we compare the model-derived stresses with our previous in vivo empirical measurements of bone strain from P. poliocephalus in free flapping flight. Agreement between bone stresses from the simulation and those calculated from empirical strain measurements is excellent and suggests that the computer model captures a significant portion of the mechanics and aerodynamics of flight in this species.

  8. Validation of the measure automobile emissions model : a statistical analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-09-01

    The Mobile Emissions Assessment System for Urban and Regional Evaluation (MEASURE) model provides an external validation capability for hot stabilized option; the model is one of several new modal emissions models designed to predict hot stabilized e...

  9. Dental models made with an intraoral scanner: A validation study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cuperus, A.M.; Harms, M.C.; Rangel, F.A.; Bronkhorst, E.M.; Schols, J.G.J.H.; Breuning, K.H.

    2012-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Our objectives were to determine the validity and reproducibility of measurements on stereolithographic models and 3-dimensional digital dental models made with an intraoral scanner. METHODS: Ten dry human skulls were scanned; from the scans, stereolithographic models and digital

  10. Experimental studies in the bronchial circulation. Which is the ideal animal model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagiotou, Ioannis; Tsipas, Panteleimon; Melachrinou, Maria; Alexopoulos, Dimitrios; Dougenis, Dimitrios

    2014-01-01

    Background The importance of the role of bronchial arteries is notable in modern days thoracic surgery. The significance of their anastomoses with adjusted structures has not yet been sufficiently rated, especially in cases of haemoptysis, heart-lung transplantations and treatment of aneurysms of the thoracic aorta. The need of a thorough study is more relevant than ever and appropriate laboratory animals are required. Methods We review the literature in order to highlight the ideal experimental animal for the implementation of pilot programs relative to the bronchial circulation. A comparative analysis of the anatomy of the bronchial arterial system in humans along with these of pigs, dogs, rats, and birds, as being the most commonly used laboratory animals, is presented in details. Results The pig has the advantage that the broncho-oesophageal artery usually originates from the aorta as a single vessel, which makes the recognition and dissection of the artery easy to perform. In dogs, there is significant anatomical variation of the origin of the bronchial arteries. In rats, bronchial artery coming from the aorta is a rare event while in birds the pattern of the bronchial artery tree is clearly different from the human analog. Conclusions The pig is anatomically and physiologically suited for experimental studies on the bronchial circulation. The suitable bronchial anatomy and physiology along with the undeniable usefulness of the pig in experimental research and the low maintenance cost make the pig the ideal model for experiments in bronchial circulation. PMID:25364530

  11. A coupled model study on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under extreme atmospheric CO2 conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita Lecci

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the climate sensitivity to a strong CO2 atmospheric forcing focusing on the North Atlantic Ocean (NA. The analysis is based on a set of 600 years long experiments performed with a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model (CGCM with the 1990 reference value of atmospheric CO2 multiplied by 4, 8 and 16. Extreme increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration have been applied to force the climate system towards stable states with different thermo-dynamical properties and analyze how the different resulting oceanic stratification and diffusion affect the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC. The AMOC weakens in response to the induced warming with distinctive features in the extreme case: a southward shift of convective sites and the formation of a density front at mid-latitudes. The analysis of the density fluxes reveals that NA loses density at high latitudes and gains it southward of 40°N mainly due to the haline contribution. Our results indicate that the most important processes that control the AMOC are active in the high latitudes and are related to the stability of the water column. The increased ocean stratification stabilizes the ocean interior leading to a decreased vertical diffusivity, a reduction in the formation of deep water and a weaker circulation. In particular, the deep convection collapses mainly in the Labrador Sea as a consequence of the water column stratification under high latitudes freshening.

  12. Results from a 2 x CO2 simulation with the Canadian Climate Centre general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boer, G.J.

    1990-01-01

    The Canadian Climate Centre's general circulation model (GCM), GCMII, was used to simulate a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. The experiment was a standard greenhouse gas climate change study, using a three-dimensional atmospheric circulation model coupled to a simple 'slab' ocean and a thermodynamic ice model. This standard experiment retains the sophistication and generality of an atmospheric GCM, is straightforward in its use of simplified ocean and ice models, is comparatively economical of computer time, and permits comparison of results from different models. Features of the second generation GCMII include: higher resolution at T32L10 with a transform grid of 3.75 x 3.75 degree; full diurnal and annual cycles; ocean and sea ice treatment involving specification of ocean transports; modified treatment of land surface processes and hydrology; a parameterization of cloud optical feedback; and a retention of the special application data sets of surface parameters for North America and Europe. Results of the simulation were a globally averaged surface temperature increase of 3.5 degree C; a precipitation and evaporation increase of 3%; an average decrease in soil moisture of 6.6%; a decrease in cloud cover of 2.2%; a 66% decrease in mass of sea ice; and marked changes in other quantities in the polar region. 2 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  13. System Advisor Model: Flat Plate Photovoltaic Performance Modeling Validation Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freeman, Janine [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Whitmore, Jonathan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kaffine, Leah [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dobos, Aron P. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2013-12-01

    The System Advisor Model (SAM) is a free software tool that performs detailed analysis of both system performance and system financing for a variety of renewable energy technologies. This report provides detailed validation of the SAM flat plate photovoltaic performance model by comparing SAM-modeled PV system generation data to actual measured production data for nine PV systems ranging from 75 kW to greater than 25 MW in size. The results show strong agreement between SAM predictions and field data, with annualized prediction error below 3% for all fixed tilt cases and below 8% for all one axis tracked cases. The analysis concludes that snow cover and system outages are the primary sources of disagreement, and other deviations resulting from seasonal biases in the irradiation models and one axis tracking issues are discussed in detail.

  14. Dynamics and thermodynamics of the Indian Ocean warm pool in a high-resolution global general circulation model

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    PrasannaKumar, S.; Ishida, A.; Yoneyama, K.; RameshKumar, M.R.; Kashino, Y.; Mitsudera, H.

    The time evolution of the Indian Ocean warm pool, studied using a global high-resolution general circulation model, shows strong seasonality. The warm pool has the largest spatial extent during April-May, and least in December. The spatio...

  15. Heat transfer modelling in the vertical tubes of a natural circulation passive containment loop with noncondensable gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herranz, L.E.; Munoz-Cobo, J.L.; Tachenko, I.; Sancho, J.; Escriva, A.; Verdu, G.

    1994-01-01

    One of the key safety systems of the Simplified Boiling Water Reactor (SBWR) of General Electric is the Passive Containment Cooling System (PCCS). This system is designed to behave as a heat sink without need of operator actions in case of a reactor accident. Such a function relies on setting up a natural circulation loop between drywell and wetwell. Along this loop heat is removed by condensing the steam coming from the drywell onto the inner surface of externally cooled vertical tubes. Therefore, a successful design of the condenser requires a good knowledge of the local heat transmission coefficients. In this paper a model of steam condensation into vertical tubes is presented. Based on a modified diffusion boundary layer approach for noncondensables, this model accounts for the effect of shear stress caused by the cocurrent steam-gas mixture on the liquid film thickness. An approximate method to calculate film thickness, avoiding iterative algorithms, has been proposed. At present, this model has been implemented in HTCPIPE code and its results are being checked in terms of local heat transfer coefficients against the experimental data available. A good agreement between measurements and predictions is being observed for tests at atmospheric pressure. Further development and validation of the model is needed to consider aspects such as mist formation, wavy flow and high pressure. (author)

  16. Data Set for Emperical Validation of Double Skin Facade Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kalyanova, Olena; Jensen, Rasmus Lund; Heiselberg, Per

    2008-01-01

    the model is empirically validated and its' limitations for the DSF modeling are identified. Correspondingly, the existence and availability of the experimental data is very essential. Three sets of accurate empirical data for validation of DSF modeling with building simulation software were produced within...

  17. Data-driven interdisciplinary mathematical modelling quantitatively unveils competition dynamics of co-circulating influenza strains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Bin-Shenq; Chao, Kun-Mao

    2017-07-28

    Co-circulation of influenza strains is common to seasonal epidemics and pandemic emergence. Competition was considered involved in the vicissitudes of co-circulating influenza strains but never quantitatively studied at the human population level. The main purpose of the study was to explore the competition dynamics of co-circulating influenza strains in a quantitative way. We constructed a heterogeneous dynamic transmission model and ran the model to fit the weekly A/H1N1 influenza virus isolation rate through an influenza season. The construction process started on the 2007-2008 single-clade influenza season and, with the contribution from the clade-based A/H1N1 epidemiological curves, advanced to the 2008-2009 two-clade influenza season. Pearson method was used to estimate the correlation coefficient between the simulated epidemic curve and the observed weekly A/H1N1 influenza virus isolation rate curve. The model found the potentially best-fit simulation with correlation coefficient up to 96% and all the successful simulations converging to the best-fit. The annual effective reproductive number of each co-circulating influenza strain was estimated. We found that, during the 2008-2009 influenza season, the annual effective reproductive number of the succeeding A/H1N1 clade 2B-2, carrying H275Y mutation in the neuraminidase, was estimated around 1.65. As to the preceding A/H1N1 clade 2C-2, the annual effective reproductive number would originally be equivalent to 1.65 but finally took on around 0.75 after the emergence of clade 2B-2. The model reported that clade 2B-2 outcompeted for the 2008-2009 influenza season mainly because clade 2C-2 suffered from a reduction of transmission fitness of around 71% on encountering the former. We conclude that interdisciplinary data-driven mathematical modelling could bring to light the transmission dynamics of the A/H1N1 H275Y strains during the 2007-2009 influenza seasons worldwide and may inspire us to tackle the

  18. Improved stratospheric atmosphere forecasts in the general circulation model through a methane oxidation parametrization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, S.; Jun, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Climatic characteristics of tropical stratospheric methane have been well researched using various satellite data, and numerical simulations have furtherly conducted using chemical climatic models, while the impact of stratospheric methane oxidation on distribution of water vapor is not paid enough attention in general circulation models. Simulated values of water vapour in the tropical upper stratosphere, and throughout much of the extratropical stratosphere, were too low. Something must be done to remedy this deficiency in order to producing realistic stratospheric water vapor using a general circulation model including the whole stratosphere. Introduction of a simple parametrization of the upper-stratospheric moisture source due to methane oxidation and a sink due to photolysis in the mesosphere was conducted. Numerical simulations and analysis of the influence of stratospheric methane on the prediction of tropical stratospheric moisture and temperature fields were carried out. This study presents the advantages of methane oxidation parametrization in producing a realistic distribution of water vapour in the tropical stratosphere and analyzes the impact of methane chemical process on the general circulation model using two storm cases including a heavy rain in South China and a typhoon caused tropical storm.It is obvious that general circulation model with methane oxidation parametrization succeeds in simulating the water vapor and temperature in stratosphere. The simulating rain center value of contrast experiment is increased up to 10% than that of the control experiment. Introduction of methane oxidation parametrization has modified the distribution of water vapour and then producing a broadly realistic distribution of temperature. Objective weather forecast verifications have been performed using simulating results of one month, which demonstrate somewhat positive effects on the model skill. There is a certain extent impact of methane oxidation

  19. A model study of present-day Hall-effect circulators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Placke, B. [RWTH Aachen University, Institute for Quantum Information, Aachen (Germany); Bosco, S. [RWTH Aachen University, Institute for Quantum Information, Aachen (Germany); Juelich-Aachen Research Alliance (JARA), Fundamentals of Future Information Technologiesh, Juelich (Germany); DiVincenzo, D.P. [RWTH Aachen University, Institute for Quantum Information, Aachen (Germany); Juelich-Aachen Research Alliance (JARA), Fundamentals of Future Information Technologiesh, Juelich (Germany); Peter Gruenberg Institute, Theoretical Nanoelectronics, Forschungszentrum Juelich, Juelich (Germany)

    2017-12-15

    Stimulated by the recent implementation of a three-port Hall-effect microwave circulator of Mahoney et al. (MEA), we present model studies of the performance of this device. Our calculations are based on the capacitive-coupling model of Viola and DiVincenzo (VD). Based on conductance data from a typical Hall-bar device obtained from a two-dimensional electron gas (2DEG) in a magnetic field, we numerically solve the coupled field-circuit equations to calculate the expected performance of the circulator, as determined by the S parameters of the device when coupled to 50Ω ports, as a function of frequency and magnetic field. Above magnetic fields of 1.5 T, for which a typical 2DEG enters the quantum Hall regime (corresponding to a Landau-level filling fraction ν of 20), the Hall angle θ{sub H} = tan{sup -1} σ{sub xy}/σ{sub xx} always remains close to 90 , and the S parameters are close to the analytic predictions of VD for θ{sub H} = π/2. As anticipated by VD, MEA find the device to have rather high (kΩ) impedance, and thus to be extremely mismatched to 50Ω, requiring the use of impedance matching. We incorporate the lumped matching circuits of MEA in our modeling and confirm that they can produce excellent circulation, although confined to a very small bandwidth. We predict that this bandwidth is significantly improved by working at lower magnetic field when the Landau index is high, e.g. ν = 20, and the impedance mismatch is correspondingly less extreme. Our modeling also confirms the observation of MEA that parasitic port-to-port capacitance can produce very interesting countercirculation effects. (orig.)

  20. Atmospheric multidecadal variations in the North Atlantic realm: proxy data, observations, and atmospheric circulation model studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Grosfeld

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of multidecadal climate variability in the North Atlantic realm, using observational data, proxy data and model results. The dominant pattern of multidecadal variability of SST depicts a monopolar structure in the North Atlantic during the instrumental period with cold (warm phases during 1900–1925 and 1970–1990 (1870–1890 and 1940–1960. Two atmospheric general circulation models of different complexity forced with global SST over the last century show SLP anomaly patterns from the warm and cold phases of the North Atlantic similar to the corresponding observed patterns. The analysis of a sediment core from Cariaco Basin, a coral record from the northern Red Sea, and a long-term sea level pressure (SLP reconstruction reveals that the multidecadal mode of the atmospheric circulation characterizes climate variability also in the pre-industrial era. The analyses of SLP reconstruction and proxy data depict a persistent atmospheric mode at least over the last 300 years, where SLP shows a dipolar structure in response to monopolar North Atlantic SST, in a similar way as the models' responses do. The combined analysis of observational and proxy data with model experiments provides an understanding of multidecadal climate modes during the late Holocene. The related patterns are useful for the interpretation of proxy data in the North Atlantic realm.

  1. Circulation and microplastic dispersion in the Chiemsee (Germany) investigated with numerical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcello Falcieri, Francesco; Laforsch, Christian; Piehl, Sarah; Ricchi, Antonio; Atwood, Elizabeth C.; Carniel, Sandro; Sclavo, Mauro

    2017-04-01

    The Chiemsee (measuring about 80 km2 and a maximum depth of 73 m) is a NATURA 2000 site and one of the major German lakes and plays a significant environmental role for the region. Moreover it is an important touristic destination, making its beaches and water quality highly valuable from a socio-economical viewpoint. As for most inland European aquatic environments, the Chiemsee was recently found to be contaminated by microplastic (i.e. plastic fragments smaller than 0.5 mm). Two main microplastics sources were identified in the Chiemsee: riverine inputs, and degradation of litter from touristic beaches. Hence, it is of interest to study lake circulation and the resulting microplastic dispersion from these sources in order to support activities to achieve a good environmental status. Here we present the first attempt to characterize the hydrodynamic processes of the Chiemsee with a high resolution 3D implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). The simulations were forced with observed riverine inputs and modeled atmospherical fields computed with a local implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Modeling results provide a first insight into the Chiemsee circulation system and contribute to understanding the dispersion pathways of microplastic particles from different sources. Furthermore, results can be used to highlight coastlines with higher risk of microplastic accumulation, identified using a set of Lagrangian simulations. The work was partially supported by the CNR Short Term Mobility grant.

  2. Dynamic pathology for circulating free DNA in a dextran sodium sulfate colitis mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koike, Yuhki; Uchida, Keiichi; Tanaka, Koji; Ide, Shozo; Otake, Kohei; Okita, Yoshiki; Inoue, Mikihiro; Araki, Toshimitsu; Mizoguchi, Akira; Kusunoki, Masato

    2014-12-01

    In sepsis, circulating free DNA (cf-DNA) is increased, and is a marker of severity and prognosis of septic patients. This study aimed to evaluate cf-DNA in a dextran sodium sulfate-induced colitis mouse model, and its clinical implications. Dynamic pathology of the cecum wall in the DSS-induced colitis mouse model was analyzed using multiphoton microscopy (MPM). Plasma cf-DNA concentrations in colitis mouse were quantified using PicoGreen dsDNA Assay Kit. Plasma cf-DNA was also measured in 123 human ulcerative colitis (UC) patients [mean age: 35.9 years (3-75 years) with 20 pediatric patients] to assess its relationships with clinical severity and Matt's grade. Real-time images of cf-DNA were detected in the colitis model. The amount of labeled cf-DNA in the circulation of the colitis mice group was significantly higher compared with that in the control group (P UC blood samples, plasma cf-DNA concentrations in UC patients were significantly positively correlated with the clinical severity of UC and Matt's grade (P colitis mouse model. Plasma cf-DNA is a potential non-invasive blood marker for reflecting clinical severity and mucosal damage in UC patients.

  3. New validation metrics for models with multiple correlated responses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Wei; Chen, Wei; Jiang, Zhen; Lu, Zhenzhou; Liu, Yu

    2014-01-01

    Validating models with correlated multivariate outputs involves the comparison of multiple stochastic quantities. Considering both uncertainty and correlations among multiple responses from model and physical observations imposes challenges. Existing marginal comparison methods and the hypothesis testing-based methods either ignore correlations among responses or only reach Boolean conclusions (yes or no) without accounting for the amount of discrepancy between a model and the underlying reality. A new validation metric is needed to quantitatively characterize the overall agreement of multiple responses considering correlations among responses and uncertainty in both model predictions and physical observations. In this paper, by extending the concept of “area metric” and the “u-pooling method” developed for validating a single response, we propose new model validation metrics for validating correlated multiple responses using the multivariate probability integral transformation (PIT). One new metric is the PIT area metric for validating multi-responses at a single validation site. The other is the t-pooling metric that allows for pooling observations of multiple responses observed at multiple validation sites to assess the global predictive capability. The proposed metrics have many favorable properties that are well suited for validation assessment of models with correlated responses. The two metrics are examined and compared with the direct area metric and the marginal u-pooling method respectively through numerical case studies and an engineering example to illustrate their validity and potential benefits

  4. Upper-Ocean Heat Balance Processes and the Walker Circulation in CMIP5 Model Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, F. R.; Roberts, J. B.; Funk, C.; Lyon, B.; Ricciardulli, L.

    2012-01-01

    Considerable uncertainty remains as to the importance of mechanisms governing decadal and longer variability of the Walker Circulation, its connection to the tropical climate system, and prospects for tropical climate change in the face of anthropogenic forcing. Most contemporary climate models suggest that in response to elevated CO2 and a warmer but more stratified atmosphere, the required upward mass flux in tropical convection will diminish along with the Walker component of the tropical mean circulation as well. Alternatively, there is also evidence to suggest that the shoaling and increased vertical stratification of the thermocline in the eastern Pacific will enable a muted SST increase there-- preserving or even enhancing some of the dynamical forcing for the Walker cell flow. Over the past decade there have been observational indications of an acceleration in near-surface easterlies, a strengthened Pacific zonal SST gradient, and globally-teleconnected dislocations in precipitation. But is this evidence in support of an ocean dynamical thermostat process posited to accompany anthropogenic forcing, or just residual decadal fluctuations associated with variations in warm and cold ENSO events and other stochastic forcing? From a modeling perspective we try to make headway on this question by examining zonal variations in surface energy fluxes and dynamics governing tropical upper ocean heat content evolution in the WCRP CMIP5 model projections. There is some diversity among model simulations; for example, the CCSM4 indicates net ocean warming over the IndoPacific region while the CSIRO model concentrates separate warming responses over the central Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The models, as with observations, demonstrate strong local coupling between variations in column water vapor, downward surface longwave radiation and SST; but the spatial patterns of changes in the sign of this relationship differ among models and, for models as a whole, with

  5. Orographic effects on tropical climate in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okajima, Hideki

    Large-scale mountain modifies the atmospheric circulation directly through dynamic and thermodynamic process, and also indirectly through the interaction with the ocean. To investigate orographic impacts on tropical climate, a fully coupled general circulation model (CGCM) is developed by coupling a state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model and an ocean general circulation model. With realistic boundary conditions, the CGCM produces a reasonable climatology of sea surface temperature (SST), surface winds, and precipitation. When global mountains are removed, the model climatology displays substantial changes in both the mean-state and the seasonal cycle. The equatorial eastern Pacific SST acquires a semi-annual component as inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) flips and flops across the equator following the seasonal migration of the sun. Without the Andes, wet air flows into the southeastern tropical Pacific from the humid Amazon, which weakens the meridional asymmetry during the Peruvian warm season (February-April). In addition, the northeasterly trade winds are enhanced north of the equator without the orographic blocking of Central American mountains and cools SST. Triggered by the SST cooling north and moistening south of the equator, the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback further weakens the meridional asymmetry and prolongs the southern ITCZ. In the Atlantic Ocean, the equatorial cold tongue is substantially strengthened and develops a pronounced annual cycle in the absence of mountains. The easterly winds are overall enhanced over the equatorial Atlantic without orographic heating over the African highlands, developing a zonal asymmetry strengthened by the Bjerknes feedback. In the Indian Ocean, the thermocline shoals eastward and an equatorial cold tongue appears twice a year. During boreal summer, the Findlater jet is greatly weakened off Somalia and SST warms in the western Indian Ocean, forcing the equatorial easterly winds amplified

  6. Projected evolution of circulation types and their temperatures over Central Europe in climate models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Plavcová, Eva; Kyselý, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 114, 3-4 (2013), s. 625-634 ISSN 0177-798X R&D Project s: GA ČR GAP209/10/2265 Grant - others:ENSEMBLES: EU-FP6(XE) 505539 Program:FP6 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : Regional climate models * Atmospheric circulation * Climate change scenarios * Surface air temperature * ENSEMBLES * Central Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.742, year: 2013 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-013-0874-4#page-1

  7. From global circulation to flood loss: Coupling models across the scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felder, Guido; Gomez-Navarro, Juan Jose; Bozhinova, Denica; Zischg, Andreas; Raible, Christoph C.; Ole, Roessler; Martius, Olivia; Weingartner, Rolf

    2017-04-01

    The prediction and the prevention of flood losses requires an extensive understanding of underlying meteorological, hydrological, hydraulic and damage processes. Coupled models help to improve the understanding of such underlying processes and therefore contribute the understanding of flood risk. Using such a modelling approach to determine potentially flood-affected areas and damages requires a complex coupling between several models operating at different spatial and temporal scales. Although the isolated parts of the single modelling components are well established and commonly used in the literature, a full coupling including a mesoscale meteorological model driven by a global circulation one, a hydrologic model, a hydrodynamic model and a flood impact and loss model has not been reported so far. In the present study, we tackle the application of such a coupled model chain in terms of computational resources, scale effects, and model performance. From a technical point of view, results show the general applicability of such a coupled model, as well as good model performance. From a practical point of view, such an approach enables the prediction of flood-induced damages, although some future challenges have been identified.

  8. Effects of wave-induced forcing on a circulation model of the North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staneva, Joanna; Alari, Victor; Breivik, Øyvind; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Mogensen, Kristian

    2017-01-01

    The effect of wind waves on water level and currents during two storms in the North Sea is investigated using a high-resolution Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) model forced with fluxes and fields from a high-resolution wave model. The additional terms accounting for wave-current interaction that are considered in this study are the Stokes-Coriolis force, the sea-state-dependent energy and momentum fluxes. The individual and collective role of these processes is quantified and the results are compared with a control run without wave effects as well as against current and water-level measurements from coastal stations. We find a better agreement with observations when the circulation model is forced by sea-state-dependent fluxes, especially in extreme events. The two extreme events, the storm Christian (25-27 October 2013), and about a month later, the storm Xaver (5-7 December 2013), induce different wave and surge conditions over the North Sea. Including the wave effects in the circulation model for the storm Xaver raises the modelled surge by more than 40 cm compared with the control run in the German Bight area. For the storm Christian, a difference of 20-30 cm in the surge level between the wave-forced and the stand-alone ocean model is found over the whole southern part of the North Sea. Moreover, the modelled vertical velocity profile fits the observations very well when the wave forcing is accounted for. The contribution of wave-induced forcing has been quantified indicating that this represents an important mechanism for improving water-level and current predictions.

  9. Results of an interactively coupled atmospheric chemistry - general circulation model. Comparison with observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hein, R.; Dameris, M.; Schnadt, C. [and others

    2000-01-01

    An interactively coupled climate-chemistry model which enables a simultaneous treatment of meteorology and atmospheric chemistry and their feedbacks is presented. This is the first model, which interactively combines a general circulation model based on primitive equations with a rather complex model of stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry, and which is computational efficient enough to allow long-term integrations with currently available computer resources. The applied model version extends from the Earth's surface up to 10 hPa with a relatively high number (39) of vertical levels. We present the results of a present-day (1990) simulation and compare it to available observations. We focus on stratospheric dynamics and chemistry relevant to describe the stratospheric ozone layer. The current model version ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM can realistically reproduce stratospheric dynamics in the Arctic vortex region, including stratospheric warming events. This constitutes a major improvement compared to formerly applied model versions. However, apparent shortcomings in Antarctic circulation and temperatures persist. The seasonal and interannual variability of the ozone layer is simulated in accordance with observations. Activation and deactivation of chlorine in the polar stratospheric vortices and their interhemispheric differences are reproduced. The consideration of the chemistry feedback on dynamics results in an improved representation of the spatial distribution of stratospheric water vapor concentrations, i.e., the simulated meriodional water vapor gradient in the stratosphere is realistic. The present model version constitutes a powerful tool to investigate, for instance, the combined direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic trace gas emissions, and the future evolution of the ozone layer. (orig.)

  10. Some considerations for validation of repository performance assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eisenberg, N.

    1991-01-01

    Validation is an important aspect of the regulatory uses of performance assessment. A substantial body of literature exists indicating the manner in which validation of models is usually pursued. Because performance models for a nuclear waste repository cannot be tested over the long time periods for which the model must make predictions, the usual avenue for model validation is precluded. Further impediments to model validation include a lack of fundamental scientific theory to describe important aspects of repository performance and an inability to easily deduce the complex, intricate structures characteristic of a natural system. A successful strategy for validation must attempt to resolve these difficulties in a direct fashion. Although some procedural aspects will be important, the main reliance of validation should be on scientific substance and logical rigor. The level of validation needed will be mandated, in part, by the uses to which these models are put, rather than by the ideal of validation of a scientific theory. Because of the importance of the validation of performance assessment models, the NRC staff has engaged in a program of research and international cooperation to seek progress in this important area. 2 figs., 16 refs

  11. Integrated cumulus ensemble and turbulence (ICET): An integrated parameterization system for general circulation models (GCMs)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, J.L.; Frank, W.M.; Young, G.S. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)

    1996-04-01

    Successful simulations of the global circulation and climate require accurate representation of the properties of shallow and deep convective clouds, stable-layer clouds, and the interactions between various cloud types, the boundary layer, and the radiative fluxes. Each of these phenomena play an important role in the global energy balance, and each must be parameterized in a global climate model. These processes are highly interactive. One major problem limiting the accuracy of parameterizations of clouds and other processes in general circulation models (GCMs) is that most of the parameterization packages are not linked with a common physical basis. Further, these schemes have not, in general, been rigorously verified against observations adequate to the task of resolving subgrid-scale effects. To address these problems, we are designing a new Integrated Cumulus Ensemble and Turbulence (ICET) parameterization scheme, installing it in a climate model (CCM2), and evaluating the performance of the new scheme using data from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) sites.

  12. Application of a circulation model in waters, based in the difference method, for bays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosa, P.A.C.

    1985-01-01

    The Knowledge of circulation of water in bays, in addition to the possibility of simulation future conditions, can be of great interest in solving problems related to the cooling water for Nuclear Power Plants, study of sediments and water polution, in addition to the study of civil engineering works planned in bays. A Numerical Circulation Model of water in bays, is applied to the conditions of Sepetiba Bay at Rio de Janeiro coast. This System of Partial Differential Equations that constitute the Model, were solved by the Finite Difference Method, using a uniform cartesian grid for uniform time steps generating a bi-dimensional flow measurement of depth. The results obtained by comparing the values of the Model and measurements taken a bay were satisfactory, assuring its credibility and efficiency. A programming code was developed for the application providing outputing at any preditermined time steps, with discrimination of 30 seconds, the average levels, flows, velocities and depths of water of each grid spacing along the length of the bay in addition to a graphic of the flow. (Author) [pt

  13. Hydrogeological flow in gypsum karst areas: some examples from northern Italy and main circulation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bartolomeo Vigna

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available A Messinian succession containing gypsum beds crops out in northern Italy, mainly in Piedmont and along the northern flank of the Apennine mountains in Emilia-Romagna. These gypsum bodies have been extensively quarried at the surface, in outcrops, and through underground quarries. In Emilia-Romagna these gypsum outcrops can be rather extensive, several km long and up to 1 km wide, while in Piedmont they are mostly covered by silty-marly deposits of Upper Messinian and Pliocene age and show only sparse and small outcrops. The underground quarrying of these evaporite bodies in Piedmont has allowed studying in detail their hydrogeology, and the ways in which water flows through these karst rocks. In contrast, in Emilia-Romagna the hydrogeology of these aquifers has been studied with traditional spring water monitoring and speleological methods. On the basis of the results it has been possible to define three conceptual models regarding the water circulation in these evaporites, similar to the models existing for carbonate aquifers. The models represent aquifers with decreasing vulnerability to pollution, from the more vulnerable system with dominant conduit drainage, characterizing most of the known gypsum aquifers, to those with interconnected conduit drainage and with dispersive circulation.

  14. Validation of 2D flood models with insurance claims

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zischg, Andreas Paul; Mosimann, Markus; Bernet, Daniel Benjamin; Röthlisberger, Veronika

    2018-02-01

    Flood impact modelling requires reliable models for the simulation of flood processes. In recent years, flood inundation models have been remarkably improved and widely used for flood hazard simulation, flood exposure and loss analyses. In this study, we validate a 2D inundation model for the purpose of flood exposure analysis at the river reach scale. We validate the BASEMENT simulation model with insurance claims using conventional validation metrics. The flood model is established on the basis of available topographic data in a high spatial resolution for four test cases. The validation metrics were calculated with two different datasets; a dataset of event documentations reporting flooded areas and a dataset of insurance claims. The model fit relating to insurance claims is in three out of four test cases slightly lower than the model fit computed on the basis of the observed inundation areas. This comparison between two independent validation data sets suggests that validation metrics using insurance claims can be compared to conventional validation data, such as the flooded area. However, a validation on the basis of insurance claims might be more conservative in cases where model errors are more pronounced in areas with a high density of values at risk.

  15. Statistical Validation of Normal Tissue Complication Probability Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu Chengjian, E-mail: c.j.xu@umcg.nl [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Schaaf, Arjen van der; Veld, Aart A. van' t; Langendijk, Johannes A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Schilstra, Cornelis [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Radiotherapy Institute Friesland, Leeuwarden (Netherlands)

    2012-09-01

    Purpose: To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. Methods and Materials: A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), was used to build NTCP models for xerostomia after radiation therapy treatment of head-and-neck cancer. Model assessment was based on the likelihood function and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: Repeated double cross-validation showed the uncertainty and instability of the NTCP models and indicated that the statistical significance of model performance can be obtained by permutation testing. Conclusion: Repeated double cross-validation and permutation tests are recommended to validate NTCP models before clinical use.

  16. Distensibility and pressure-flow relationship of the pulmonary circulation. I. Single-vessel model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bshouty, Z; Younes, M

    1990-04-01

    To ascertain the relative contributions of vascular distensibility and nonhomogeneous behavior within the pulmonary circulation to the distinctive nonlinear relationship between inflow pressure (Pin) and flow [pressure-flow (P-F) relationship] and between Pin and outflow pressure (Pout) at constant flow (Pin-Pout relationship), we developed a multibranched model in which the elastic behavior of, and forces acting on, individual branches can be varied independently. The response of the multibranched model is described in the companion article (J. Appl. Physiol. 68: 1514-1527, 1990). Here we describe the methods used and the responses of single components of the larger model. Perivascular pressure is modeled as a function of intravascular and transpulmonary pressures (Pv and Ptp, respectively) and vessel length as a function of lung volume. These and the relationship between vascular area (A) and transmural pressure (Ptm) were modeled primarily from the dog data of Smith and Mitzner (J. Appl. Physiol. 48: 450-467, 1980). Vasomotor tone is modeled as a radial collapsing pressure (Pt) in the same plane as Ptm. In view of lack of information about the relationship between Pt and A for a given active state, different patterns were assumed that span a wide range of possible relationships. The P-F and Pin-Pout relationships of single vessels were very similar to those reported for the entire intact circulation. Of note, the slope of the Pin-Pout relationship in the low Pout range (0-5 Torr) was very low (less than 0.25) and increased gradually with Pout toward unity. Vasomotor tone caused an apparent parallel shift in the P-F relationship in the physiological flow range of the dog (2-8 l/min) regardless of the pattern used to model the Pt vs. A relationship; different patterns affected the P-F relationship only over the low flow range before the parallel shift was established.

  17. Using Green's Functions to initialize and adjust a global, eddying ocean biogeochemistry general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brix, H.; Menemenlis, D.; Hill, C.; Dutkiewicz, S.; Jahn, O.; Wang, D.; Bowman, K.; Zhang, H.

    2015-11-01

    The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) Flux Project aims to attribute changes in the atmospheric accumulation of carbon dioxide to spatially resolved fluxes by utilizing the full suite of NASA data, models, and assimilation capabilities. For the oceanic part of this project, we introduce ECCO2-Darwin, a new ocean biogeochemistry general circulation model based on combining the following pre-existing components: (i) a full-depth, eddying, global-ocean configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), (ii) an adjoint-method-based estimate of ocean circulation from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II (ECCO2) project, (iii) the MIT ecosystem model "Darwin", and (iv) a marine carbon chemistry model. Air-sea gas exchange coefficients and initial conditions of dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, and oxygen are adjusted using a Green's Functions approach in order to optimize modeled air-sea CO2 fluxes. Data constraints include observations of carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO2) for 2009-2010, global air-sea CO2 flux estimates, and the seasonal cycle of the Takahashi et al. (2009) Atlas. The model sensitivity experiments (or Green's Functions) include simulations that start from different initial conditions as well as experiments that perturb air-sea gas exchange parameters and the ratio of particulate inorganic to organic carbon. The Green's Functions approach yields a linear combination of these sensitivity experiments that minimizes model-data differences. The resulting initial conditions and gas exchange coefficients are then used to integrate the ECCO2-Darwin model forward. Despite the small number (six) of control parameters, the adjusted simulation is significantly closer to the data constraints (37% cost function reduction, i.e., reduction in the model-data difference, relative to the baseline simulation) and to independent observations (e.g., alkalinity). The adjusted air-sea gas

  18. Model Validation and Verification of Data Mining from the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, we seek to present a hybrid method for Model Validation and Verification of Data Mining from the Knowledge Workers Productivity Approach. It is hoped that this paper will help managers to implement different corresponding measures. A case study is presented where this model measure and validates at the ...

  19. Validation of mentorship model for newly qualified professional ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Newly qualified professional nurses (NQPNs) allocated to community health care services require the use of validated model to practice independently. Validation was done to adapt and assess if the model is understood and could be implemented by NQPNs and mentors employed in community health care services.

  20. Validation and Adaptation of Router and Switch Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boltjes, B.; Fernandez Diaz, I.; Kock, B.A.; Langeveld, R.J.G.M.; Schoenmaker, G.

    2003-01-01

    This paper describes validating OPNET models of key devices for the next generation IP-based tactical network of the Royal Netherlands Army (RNLA). The task of TNO-FEL is to provide insight in scalability and performance of future deployed networks. Because validated models ol key Cisco equipment

  1. Modelling of hydrothermal fluid circulation in a heterogeneous medium: Application to the Rainbow Vent site (Mid-Atlantic-Ridge, 36°14N)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, F.; Mügler, C.; Jean-Baptiste, P.; Charlou, J. L.

    2012-04-01

    Hydrothermal activity at the axis of mid-ocean ridges is a key driver for energy and matter transfer from the interior of the Earth to the ocean floor. At mid-ocean ridges, seawater penetrates through the permeable young crust, warms at depth and exchanges chemicals with the surrounding rocks. This hot fluid focuses and flows upwards, then is expelled from the crust at hydrothermal vent sites in the form of black or white smokers completed by diffusive emissions. We developed a new numerical tool in the Cast3M software framework to model such hydrothermal circulations. Thermodynamic properties of one-phase pure water were calculated from the IAPWS formulation. This new numerical tool was validated on several test cases of convection in closed-top and open-top boxes. Simulations of hydrothermal circulation in a homogeneous-permeability porous medium also gave results in good agreement with already published simulations. We used this new numerical tool to construct a geometric and physical model configuration of the Rainbow Vent site at 36°14'N on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. In this presentation, several configurations will be discussed, showing that high temperatures and high mass fluxes measured at the Rainbow site cannot be modelled with hydrothermal circulation in a homogeneous-permeability porous medium. We will show that these high values require the presence of a fault or a preferential pathway right below the venting site. We will propose and discuss a 2-D one-path model that allows us to simulate both high temperatures and high mass fluxes. This modelling of the hydrothermal circulation at the Rainbow site constitutes a first but necessary step to understand the origin of high concentrations of hydrogen issued from this ultramafic-hosted vent field.

  2. Simulations of physics and chemistry of polar stratospheric clouds with a general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buchholz, J.

    2005-04-20

    A polar stratospheric cloud submodel has been developed and incorporated in a general circulation model including atmospheric chemistry (ECHAM5/MESSy). The formation and sedimentation of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) particles can thus be simulated as well as heterogeneous chemical reactions that take place on the PSC particles. For solid PSC particle sedimentation, the need for a tailor-made algorithm has been elucidated. A sedimentation scheme based on first order approximations of vertical mixing ratio profiles has been developed. It produces relatively little numerical diffusion and can deal well with divergent or convergent sedimentation velocity fields. For the determination of solid PSC particle sizes, an efficient algorithm has been adapted. It assumes a monodisperse radii distribution and thermodynamic equilibrium between the gas phase and the solid particle phase. This scheme, though relatively simple, is shown to produce particle number densities and radii within the observed range. The combined effects of the representations of sedimentation and solid PSC particles on vertical H{sub 2}O and HNO{sub 3} redistribution are investigated in a series of tests. The formation of solid PSC particles, especially of those consisting of nitric acid trihydrate, has been discussed extensively in recent years. Three particle formation schemes in accordance with the most widely used approaches have been identified and implemented. For the evaluation of PSC occurrence a new data set with unprecedented spatial and temporal coverage was available. A quantitative method for the comparison of simulation results and observations is developed and applied. It reveals that the relative PSC sighting frequency can be reproduced well with the PSC submodel whereas the detailed modelling of PSC events is beyond the scope of coarse global scale models. In addition to the development and evaluation of new PSC submodel components, parts of existing simulation programs have been

  3. The modern and glacial overturning circulation in the Atlantic ocean in PMIP coupled model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. L. Weber

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This study analyses the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC to LGM forcings and boundary conditions in nine PMIP coupled model simulations, including both GCMs and Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity. Model results differ widely. The AMOC slows down considerably (by 20–40% during the LGM as compared to the modern climate in four models, there is a slight reduction in one model and four models show a substantial increase in AMOC strength (by 10–40%. It is found that a major controlling factor for the AMOC response is the density contrast between Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW and North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW at their source regions. Changes in the density contrast are determined by the opposing effects of changes in temperature and salinity, with more saline AABW as compared to NADW consistently found in all models and less cooling of AABW in all models but one. In only two models is the AMOC response during the LGM directly related to the response in net evaporation over the Atlantic basin. Most models show large changes in the ocean freshwater transports into the basin, but this does not seem to affect the AMOC response. Finally, there is some dependence on the accuracy of the control state.

  4. Interpretation of Snow-Climate Feedback as Produced by 17 General Circulation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cess, R. D.; Potter, G. L.; Zhang, M.-H.; Blanchet, J.-P.; Chalita, S.; Colman, R.; Dazlich, D. A.; del Genio, A. D.; Dymnikov, V.; Galin, V.; Jerrett, D.; Keup, E.; Lacis, A. A.; Le Treut, H.; Liang, X.-Z.; Mahfouf, J.-F.; McAvaney, B. J.; Meleshko, V. P.; Mitchell, J. F. B.; Morcrette, J.-J.; Norris, P. M.; Randall, D. A.; Rikus, L.; Roeckner, E.; Royer, J.-F.; Schlese, U.; Sheinin, D. A.; Slingo, J. M.; Sokolov, A. P.; Taylor, K. E.; Washington, W. M.; Wetherald, R. T.; Yagai, I.

    1991-08-01

    Snow feedback is expected to amplify global warming caused by increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. The conventional explanation is that a warmer Earth will have less snow cover, resulting in a darker planet that absorbs more solar radiation. An intercomparison of 17 general circulation models, for which perturbations of sea surface temperature were used as a surrogate climate change, suggests that this explanation is overly simplistic. The results instead indicate that additional amplification or moderation may be caused both by cloud interactions and longwave radiation. One measure of this net effect of snow feedback was found to differ markedly among the 17 climate models, ranging from weak negative feedback in some models to strong positive feedback in others.

  5. Scales of Langmuir circulation generated using a large-eddy simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skyllingstad, Eric D.

    2001-01-01

    Sensitivity experiments were performed using a large-eddy simulation (LES) turbulence model of the ocean surface boundary layer. Parameters defining wind and wave forcing were varied to help understand how different forcing affects the formation and dispersive qualities of Langmuir circulation (LC). Comparison of the model with observed surface velocity variance shows a consistent linear increase in velocity scale with increasing wave Stokes drift, however, the model systematically under predicts the velocity scale for large Stokes drift. Results using particle trajectories show that in open-ocean conditions, wave forcing dominates the structure of near surface turbulence causing organized LC cells that actively collect surface material. With weak waves, surface particles display a more random pattern in comparison to strong wave cases. Analysis of the turbulence kinetic energy budget shows that the reduction in wave forcing is offset by shear production, which produces less organized patterns in surface material in comparison to LC. (Author)

  6. Simulation of the global ocean thermohaline circulation with an eddy-resolving INMIO model configuration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ushakov, K. V.; Ibrayev, R. A.

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, the first results of a simulation of the mean World Ocean thermohaline characteristics obtained by the INMIO ocean general circulation model configured with 0.1 degree resolution in a 5-year long numerical experiment following the CORE-II protocol are presented. The horizontal and zonal mean distributions of the solution bias against the WOA09 data are analyzed. The seasonal cycle of heat content at a specified site of the North Atlantic is also discussed. The simulation results demonstrate a clear improvement in the quality of representation of the upper ocean compared to the results of experiments with 0.5 and 0.25 degree model configurations. Some remaining biases of the model solution and possible ways of their overcoming are highlighted.

  7. Skills of General Circulation and Earth System Models in reproducing streamflow to the ocean: the case of Congo river

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santini, M.; Caporaso, L.

    2017-12-01

    Although the importance of water resources in the context of climate change, it is still difficult to correctly simulate the freshwater cycle over the land via General Circulation and Earth System Models (GCMs and ESMs). Existing efforts from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) were mainly devoted to the validation of atmospheric variables like temperature and precipitation, with low attention to discharge.Here we investigate the present-day performances of GCMs and ESMs participating to CMIP5 in simulating the discharge of the river Congo to the sea thanks to: i) the long-term availability of discharge data for the Kinshasa hydrological station representative of more than 95% of the water flowing in the whole catchment; and ii) the River's still low influence by human intervention, which enables comparison with the (mostly) natural streamflow simulated within CMIP5.Our findings suggest how most of models appear overestimating the streamflow in terms of seasonal cycle, especially in the late winter and spring, while overestimation and variability across models are lower in late summer. Weighted ensemble means are also calculated, based on simulations' performances given by several metrics, showing some improvements of results.Although simulated inter-monthly and inter-annual percent anomalies do not appear significantly different from those in observed data, when translated into well consolidated indicators of drought attributes (frequency, magnitude, timing, duration), usually adopted for more immediate communication to stakeholders and decision makers, such anomalies can be misleading.These inconsistencies produce incorrect assessments towards water management planning and infrastructures (e.g. dams or irrigated areas), especially if models are used instead of measurements, as in case of ungauged basins or for basins with insufficient data, as well as when relying on models for future estimates without a preliminary quantification of model biases.

  8. Surface Lander Missions to Mars: Support via Analysis of the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, James R.; Bridger, Alison F.C.; Haberle, Robert M.

    1997-01-01

    We have characterized the near-surface martian wind environment as calculated with a set of numerical simulations carried out with the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (Mars GCM). These wind environments are intended to offer future spacecraft missions to the martian surface a data base from which to choose those locations which meet the mission's criteria for minimal near surface winds to enable a successful landing. We also became involved in the development and testing of the wind sensor which is currently onboard the Mars-bound Pathfinder lander. We began this effort with a comparison of Mars GCM produced winds with those measured by the Viking landers during their descent through the martian atmosphere and their surface wind measurements during the 3+ martian year lifetime of the mission. Unexpected technical difficulties in implementing the sophisticated Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) scheme of Haberle et al. (1993) within the Mars GCM precluded our carrying out this investigation with the desired improvement to the model's treatment of the PBL. Thus, our results from this effort are not as conclusive as we had anticipated. As it turns out, similar difficulties have been experienced by other Mars modelling groups in attempting to implement very similar PBL routines into their GCMs (Mars General Circulation Model Intercomparison Workshop, held at Oxford University, United Kingdom, July 22-24, 1996; organized by J. Murphy, J. Hollingsworth, M. Joshi). These problems, which arise due to the nature of the time stepping in each of the models, are near to being resolved at the present. The model discussions which follow herein are based upon results using the existing, less sophisticated PBL routine. We fully anticipate implementing the tools we have developed in the present effort to investigate GCM results with the new PBL scheme implemented, and thereafter producing the technical document detailing results from the analysis tools developed during this

  9. Simulation of anthropogenic CO2 uptake in the CCSM3.1 ocean circulation-biogeochemical model: comparison with data-based estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, S.; Moore, J. K.; Primeau, F. W.; Khatiwala, S.

    2012-04-01

    The global ocean has taken up a large fraction of the CO2 released by human activities since the industrial revolution. Quantifying the oceanic anthropogenic carbon (Cant) inventory and its variability is important for predicting the future global carbon cycle. The detailed comparison of data-based and model-based estimates is essential for the validation and continued improvement of our prediction capabilities. So far, three global estimates of oceanic Cant inventory that are "data-based" and independent of global ocean circulation models have been produced: one based on the Δ C* method, and two that are based on constraining surface-to-interior transport of tracers, the TTD method and a maximum entropy inversion method (GF). The GF method, in particular, is capable of reconstructing the history of Cant inventory through the industrial era. In the present study we use forward model simulations of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3.1) to estimate the Cant inventory and compare the results with the data-based estimates. We also use the simulations to test several assumptions of the GF method, including the assumption of constant climate and circulation, which is common to all the data-based estimates. Though the integrated estimates of global Cant inventories are consistent with each other, the regional estimates show discrepancies up to 50 %. The CCSM3 model underestimates the total Cant inventory, in part due to weak mixing and ventilation in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Analyses of different simulation results suggest that key assumptions about ocean circulation and air-sea disequilibrium in the GF method are generally valid on the global scale, but may introduce errors in Cant estimates on regional scales. The GF method should also be used with caution when predicting future oceanic anthropogenic carbon uptake.

  10. Simulation of anthropogenic CO2 uptake in the CCSM3.1 ocean circulation-biogeochemical model: comparison with data-based estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Khatiwala

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The global ocean has taken up a large fraction of the CO2 released by human activities since the industrial revolution. Quantifying the oceanic anthropogenic carbon (Cant inventory and its variability is important for predicting the future global carbon cycle. The detailed comparison of data-based and model-based estimates is essential for the validation and continued improvement of our prediction capabilities. So far, three global estimates of oceanic Cant inventory that are "data-based" and independent of global ocean circulation models have been produced: one based on the Δ C* method, and two that are based on constraining surface-to-interior transport of tracers, the TTD method and a maximum entropy inversion method (GF. The GF method, in particular, is capable of reconstructing the history of Cant inventory through the industrial era. In the present study we use forward model simulations of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3.1 to estimate the Cant inventory and compare the results with the data-based estimates. We also use the simulations to test several assumptions of the GF method, including the assumption of constant climate and circulation, which is common to all the data-based estimates. Though the integrated estimates of global Cant inventories are consistent with each other, the regional estimates show discrepancies up to 50 %. The CCSM3 model underestimates the total Cant inventory, in part due to weak mixing and ventilation in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Analyses of different simulation results suggest that key assumptions about ocean circulation and air-sea disequilibrium in the GF method are generally valid on the global scale, but may introduce errors in Cant estimates on regional scales. The GF method should also be used with caution when predicting future oceanic anthropogenic carbon uptake.

  11. Circulation controls on southern African precipitation in coupled models: The role of the Angola Low

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munday, Callum; Washington, Richard

    2017-01-01

    In southern Africa, models from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project produce a wide variety of rainfall climatologies. Differences between models in rainfall amount reach 70% in the rainy season (December-February; DJF), and the median model overestimates rainfall by between 15 and 40% throughout the annual cycle. This paper investigates the role of an understudied regional circulation feature, the Angola Low, in differentiating between model estimates of precipitation. In austral spring, the Angola Low is a heat low, driven by strong surface heating whereas in DJF it is more similar to a tropical low and is associated with moist instability. In the austral summer, we find that the simulated strength of the Angola Low is associated with between 40 and 60% of the intermodel variability in model mean rainfall across the subcontinent. The relationship is particularly strong along a northwest, southeast axis aligned from Angola down to the Mozambican Channel. Along this axis, models with stronger Angola Lows simulate enhanced, by up to 50 g kg-1 ms-1, northeasterly and northwesterly moisture transport. The enhanced southward moisture flux in models with relatively deep Angola Lows increases the rate of moisture convergence in central areas of the subcontinent and reduces moisture divergence across the Mozambican coast. The results highlight the need to better understand the links between the Angola Low and southern African rainfall and suggest that improving the simulation of the Angola Low can help to constrain model estimates of southern African rainfall.

  12. Complex mean circulation over the inner shelf south of Martha's Vineyard revealed by observations and a high-resolution model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganju, Neil K.; Lentz, Steven J.; Kirincich, Anthony R.; Farrar, J. Thomas

    2011-01-01

    Inner-shelf circulation is governed by the interaction between tides, baroclinic forcing, winds, waves, and frictional losses; the mean circulation ultimately governs exchange between the coast and ocean. In some cases, oscillatory tidal currents interact with bathymetric features to generate a tidally rectified flow. Recent observational and modeling efforts in an overlapping domain centered on the Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory (MVCO) provided an opportunity to investigate the spatial and temporal complexity of circulation on the inner shelf. ADCP and surface radar observations revealed a mean circulation pattern that was highly variable in the alongshore and cross-shore directions. Nested modeling incrementally improved representation of the mean circulation as grid resolution increased and indicated tidal rectification as the generation mechanism of a counter-clockwise gyre near the MVCO. The loss of model skill with decreasing resolution is attributed to insufficient representation of the bathymetric gradients (Δh/h), which is important for representing nonlinear interactions between currents and bathymetry. The modeled momentum balance was characterized by large spatial variability of the pressure gradient and horizontal advection terms over short distances, suggesting that observed inner-shelf momentum balances may be confounded. Given the available observational and modeling data, this work defines the spatially variable mean circulation and its formation mechanism—tidal rectification—and illustrates the importance of model resolution for resolving circulation and constituent exchange near the coast. The results of this study have implications for future observational and modeling studies near the MVCO and other inner-shelf locations with alongshore bathymetric variability.

  13. Modelling nearshore hydrodynamics and circulation under the impact of high waves at the coast of Varkiza in Saronic-Athens Gulf

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kostas A. Belibassakis

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available A plethora of physical parameters, such as hydro-, litho- and morpho-dynamic characteristics, are essential for understanding the response of coastal systems to intense sea states in terms of sediment transport and shoreline evolution. Nowadays, numerical models are extensively applied to meet the above needs and support coastal planning and management. In the present work, a 2DH dynamic modelling system is used for simulating the hydrodynamic and meteorological/oceanographic characteristics of the Saronic Gulf, in order to examine circulation patterns and predict sediment transport phenomena under high wave conditions at the coast of Varkiza, a sandy beach in the southern Attica, Greece. Time series of wind and wave data were used as input at the open boundaries of the model domain while the model was calibrated and validated through (linear and directional statistical measures with respect to in situ wave measurements, since there was lack of hydrodynamic data at the site of interest. The simulation period of the model was between January 3 and February 19, 2013, with consecutive high waves in-between. The good agreement of the numerical results from the wave and hydrodynamic model with in situ measurements confirmed the suitability of the model for the support of sediment transport rates at Varkiza coastal segment. Model results reveal that there is a counter-clockwise water circulation during high waves that contribute to the erosion of the examined beach, which is also confirmed by independent field measurements.

  14. Ocean regional circulation model sensitizes to resolution of the lateral boundary conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pham, Van Sy; Hwang, Jin Hwan

    2017-04-01

    Dynamical downscaling with nested regional oceanographic models is an effective approach for forecasting operationally coastal weather and projecting long term climate on the ocean. Nesting procedures deliver the unwanted in dynamic downscaling due to the differences of numerical grid sizes and updating steps. Therefore, such unavoidable errors restrict the application of the Ocean Regional Circulation Model (ORCMs) in both short-term forecasts and long-term projections. The current work identifies the effects of errors induced by computational limitations during nesting procedures on the downscaled results of the ORCMs. The errors are quantitatively evaluated for each error source and its characteristics by the Big-Brother Experiments (BBE). The BBE separates identified errors from each other and quantitatively assess the amount of uncertainties employing the same model to simulate for both nesting and nested model. Here, we focus on discussing errors resulting from two main matters associated with nesting procedures. They should be the spatial grids' differences and the temporal updating steps. After the diverse cases from separately running of the BBE, a Taylor diagram was adopted to analyze the results and suggest an optimization intern of grid size and updating period and domain sizes. Key words: lateral boundary condition, error, ocean regional circulation model, Big-Brother Experiment. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by grants from the Korean Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries entitled "Development of integrated estuarine management system" and a National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) Grant (No. 2015R1A5A 7037372) funded by MSIP of Korea. The authors thank the Integrated Research Institute of Construction and Environmental Engineering of Seoul National University for administrative support.

  15. Analysis of Circulation Patterns in the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea, Simulated with a High-Resolution Hydrodynamic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westerlund, A.

    2017-12-01

    The Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea is a long, estuary-like sea area that is a direct continuation of the Baltic Proper. Short-term surface circulation in the gulf is mainly wind driven. The stability of currents varies from season to season. The relatively large freshwater input from the eastern end and the more saline deep water flow from the main basin at the western end maintain horizontal density gradients. We studied circulation patterns in the gulf with a high-resolution 3D hydrodynamic model setup. The configuration was based on the NEMO model and had 0.25 NM horizontal resolution and vertical resolution of 1 m. Our multi-year simulation revealed high year to year variability in the circulation. The persistency of currents in the Gulf of Finland is known to be low, with high variability in time and space. This was clearly demonstrated by our results. Processes affecting circulation patterns were analysed. These included upwelling-related alongshore currents. Several strong upwelling related coastal currents were present in the results on both northern and southern coast of the Gulf. The effect of wind forcing on the circulation in the gulf was also considered. We analysed wind forcing and found that annual differences contributed to the modelled circulation patterns.

  16. An evaluation of the North Sea circulation in global and regional models relevant for ecosystem simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pätsch, Johannes; Burchard, Hans; Dieterich, Christian; Gräwe, Ulf; Gröger, Matthias; Mathis, Moritz; Kapitza, Hartmut; Bersch, Manfred; Moll, Andreas; Pohlmann, Thomas; Su, Jian; Ho-Hagemann, Ha T. M.; Schulz, Achim; Elizalde, Alberto; Eden, Carsten

    2017-08-01

    Simulations of the North Sea circulation by the global ocean model MPI-OM and the regional ocean models GETM, HAMSOM, NEMO, TRIM are compared against each other and with observational data for the period 1998-2009. The aim of the study is to evaluate the quality of the simulations in particular with respect to their suitability to drive biogeochemical shelf sea models. Our results demonstrate the benefit of the global model to avoid the specification of lateral open boundary conditions. Due to its stretched grid configuration, which provides a higher grid resolution at the Northwest European Shelf, the global model is able to reproduce the large-scale features, such as the water mass distribution and the thermal stratification in the central and northern North Sea, qualitatively similar to the regional models. The simulation of temperature and salinity near the coast however, shows large biases in almost all models because of the coarse meteorological forcing and too coarse vertical resolutions. The simulation of the Baltic Sea exchange and the spread of freshwater along the Norwegian coast proved difficult for all models except GETM, which reproduces impacts of the Baltic Sea outflow reasonably well.

  17. Exploring Secondary Students' Epistemological Features Depending on the Evaluation Levels of the Group Model on Blood Circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Shinyoung; Kim, Heui-Baik

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to identify the epistemological features and model qualities depending on model evaluation levels and to explore the reasoning process behind high-level evaluation through small group interaction about blood circulation. Nine groups of three to four students in the eighth grade participated in the modeling practice.…

  18. The international coordination of climate model validation and intercomparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gates, W.L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. Livermore, CA (United States). Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison

    1995-12-31

    Climate modeling, whereby basic physical laws are used to integrate the physics and dynamics of climate into a consistent system, plays a key role in climate research and is the medium through. Depending upon the portion(s) of the climate system being considered, climate models range from those concerned only with the equilibrium globally-averaged surface temperature to those depicting the 3-dimensional time-dependent evolution of the coupled atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface. Here only the latter class of models are considered, which are commonly known as general circulation models (or GCMs). (author)

  19. Effects of Southern Hemisphere Wind Changes on the Meridional Overturning Circulation in Ocean Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gent, Peter R

    2016-01-01

    Observations show that the Southern Hemisphere zonal wind stress maximum has increased significantly over the past 30 years. Eddy-resolving ocean models show that the resulting increase in the Southern Ocean mean flow meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is partially compensated by an increase in the eddy MOC. This effect can be reproduced in the non-eddy-resolving ocean component of a climate model, providing the eddy parameterization coefficient is variable and not a constant. If the coefficient is a constant, then the Southern Ocean mean MOC change is balanced by an unrealistically large change in the Atlantic Ocean MOC. Southern Ocean eddy compensation means that Southern Hemisphere winds cannot be the dominant mechanism driving midlatitude North Atlantic MOC variability.

  20. Theoretical model of two-phase drift flow on natural circulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Xingtuan; Jiang Shengyao; Zhang Youjie

    2002-01-01

    Some expressions, such as sub-cooled boiling in the heating section, condensation near the riser inlet, flashing in the riser, and pressure balance in the steam-space, have been theoretically deduced from the physical model of 5 MW heating reactor test loop. The thermodynamics un-equilibrium etc have been considered too. A entire drift model with four equations has been formed, which can be applied to natural circulation system with low pressure and low steam quality. By means of introducing the concept of condensation layer, condensing of bubbles in the sub-cooled liquid has been formulated for the first time. The restrictive equations of the steam space pressure and liquid level have been offered. The equations can be solved by means of integral method, then by using Rung-Kutta-Verner method the final results is obtained

  1. The water cycle in the general circulation model of the martian atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaposhnikov, D. S.; Rodin, A. V.; Medvedev, A. S.

    2016-03-01

    Within the numerical general-circulation model of the Martian atmosphere MAOAM (Martian Atmosphere: Observation and Modeling), we have developed the water cycle block, which is an essential component of modern general circulation models of the Martian atmosphere. The MAOAM model has a spectral dynamic core and successfully predicts the temperature regime on Mars through the use of physical parameterizations typical of both terrestrial and Martian models. We have achieved stable computation for three Martian years, while maintaining a conservative advection scheme taking into account the water-ice phase transitions, water exchange between the atmosphere and surface, and corrections for the vertical velocities of ice particles due to sedimentation. The studies show a strong dependence of the amount of water that is actively involved in the water cycle on the initial data, model temperatures, and the mechanism of water exchange between the atmosphere and the surface. The general pattern and seasonal asymmetry of the water cycle depends on the size of ice particles, the albedo, and the thermal inertia of the planet's surface. One of the modeling tasks, which results from a comparison of the model data with those of the TES experiment on board Mars Global Surveyor, is the increase in the total mass of water vapor in the model in the aphelion season and decrease in the mass of water ice clouds at the poles. The surface evaporation scheme, which takes into account the turbulent rise of water vapor, on the one hand, leads to the most complete evaporation of ice from the surface in the summer season in the northern hemisphere and, on the other hand, supersaturates the atmosphere with ice due to the vigorous evaporation, which leads to worse consistency between the amount of the precipitated atmospheric ice and the experimental data. The full evaporation of ice from the surface increases the model sensitivity to the size of the polar cap; therefore, the increase in the

  2. The Finite Element Sea Ice-Ocean Model (FESOM v.1.4: formulation of an ocean general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Q. Wang

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The Finite Element Sea Ice-Ocean Model (FESOM is the first global ocean general circulation model based on unstructured-mesh methods that has been developed for the purpose of climate research. The advantage of unstructured-mesh models is their flexible multi-resolution modelling functionality. In this study, an overview of the main features of FESOM will be given; based on sensitivity experiments a number of specific parameter choices will be explained; and directions of future developments will be outlined. It is argued that FESOM is sufficiently mature to explore the benefits of multi-resolution climate modelling and that its applications will provide information useful for the advancement of climate modelling on unstructured meshes.

  3. The concept of validation of numerical models for consequence analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borg, Audun; Paulsen Husted, Bjarne; Njå, Ove

    2014-01-01

    Numerical models such as computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models are increasingly used in life safety studies and other types of analyses to calculate the effects of fire and explosions. The validity of these models is usually established by benchmark testing. This is done to quantitatively measure the agreement between the predictions provided by the model and the real world represented by observations in experiments. This approach assumes that all variables in the real world relevant for the specific study are adequately measured in the experiments and in the predictions made by the model. In this paper the various definitions of validation for CFD models used for hazard prediction are investigated to assess their implication for consequence analysis in a design phase. In other words, how is uncertainty in the prediction of future events reflected in the validation process? The sources of uncertainty are viewed from the perspective of the safety engineer. An example of the use of a CFD model is included to illustrate the assumptions the analyst must make and how these affect the prediction made by the model. The assessments presented in this paper are based on a review of standards and best practice guides for CFD modeling and the documentation from two existing CFD programs. Our main thrust has been to assess how validation work is performed and communicated in practice. We conclude that the concept of validation adopted for numerical models is adequate in terms of model performance. However, it does not address the main sources of uncertainty from the perspective of the safety engineer. Uncertainty in the input quantities describing future events, which are determined by the model user, outweighs the inaccuracies in the model as reported in validation studies. - Highlights: • Examine the basic concept of validation applied to models for consequence analysis. • Review standards and guides for validation of numerical models. • Comparison of the validation

  4. The Effect of Wind Forcing on Modeling Coastal Circulation at a Marine Renewable Test Site

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Ren

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The hydrodynamic circulation in estuaries is primarily driven by tides, river inflows and surface winds. While tidal and river data can be quite easily obtained for input to hydrodynamic models, sourcing accurate surface wind data is problematic. Inaccurate wind data can lead to inaccuracies in the surface currents computed by three-dimensional hydrodynamic models. In this research, a high-resolution wind model was coupled with a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Galway Bay, a semi-enclosed estuary on the west coast of Ireland, to investigate the effect of wind forcing on model accuracy. Two wind-forcing conditions were investigated: (1 using wind data measured onshore on the NUI Galway campus (NUIG and (2 using offshore wind data provided by a high resolution wind model (HR. A scenario with no wind forcing (NW was also assessed. The onshore wind data varied with time but the speed and direction were applied across the full model domain. The modeled offshore wind fields varied with both time and space. The effect of wind forcing on modeled hydrodynamics was assessed via comparison of modeled surface currents with surface current measurements obtained from a High-Frequency (HF radar Coastal Ocean Dynamics Applications Radar (CODAR observation system. Results indicated that winds were most significant in simulating the north-south surface velocity component. The model using high resolution temporally- and spatially-varying wind data achieved better agreement with the CODAR surface currents than the model using the onshore wind measurements and the model without any wind forcing.

  5. A statistical intercomparison of temperature and precipitation predicted by four general circulation models with historical data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grotch, S.L.

    1991-01-01

    This study is a detailed intercomparison of the results produced by four general circulation models (GCMs) that have been used to estimate the climatic consequences of a doubling of the CO 2 concentration. Two variables, surface air temperature and precipitation, annually and seasonally averaged, are compared for both the current climate and for the predicted equilibrium changes after a doubling of the atmospheric CO 2 concentration. The major question considered here is: how well do the predictions from different GCMs agree with each other and with historical climatology over different areal extents, from the global scale down to the range of only several gridpoints? Although the models often agree well when estimating averages over large areas, substantial disagreements become apparent as the spatial scale is reduced. At scales below continental, the correlations observed between different model predictions are often very poor. The implications of this work for investigation of climatic impacts on a regional scale are profound. For these two important variables, at least, the poor agreement between model simulations of the current climate on the regional scale calls into question the ability of these models to quantitatively estimate future climatic change on anything approaching the scale of a few (< 10) gridpoints, which is essential if these results are to be used in meaningful resource-assessment studies. A stronger cooperative effort among the different modeling groups will be necessary to assure that we are getting better agreement for the right reasons, a prerequisite for improving confidence in model projections. 11 refs.; 10 figs

  6. Total kinetic energy in four global eddying ocean circulation models and over 5000 current meter records

    KAUST Repository

    Scott, Robert B.

    2010-01-01

    We compare the total kinetic energy (TKE) in four global eddying ocean circulation simulations with a global dataset of over 5000, quality controlled, moored current meter records. At individual mooring sites, there was considerable scatter between models and observations that was greater than estimated statistical uncertainty. Averaging over all current meter records in various depth ranges, all four models had mean TKE within a factor of two of observations above 3500. m, and within a factor of three below 3500. m. With the exception of observations between 20 and 100. m, the models tended to straddle the observations. However, individual models had clear biases. The free running (no data assimilation) model biases were largest below 2000. m. Idealized simulations revealed that the parameterized bottom boundary layer tidal currents were not likely the source of the problem, but that reducing quadratic bottom drag coefficient may improve the fit with deep observations. Data assimilation clearly improved the model-observation comparison, especially below 2000. m, despite assimilated data existing mostly above this depth and only south of 47°N. Different diagnostics revealed different aspects of the comparison, though in general the models appeared to be in an eddying-regime with TKE that compared reasonably well with observations. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  7. A statistical intercomparison of temperature and precipitation predicted by four general circulation models with historical data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grotch, S.L.

    1990-01-01

    This study is a detailed intercomparison of the results produced by four general circulation models (GCMs) that have been used to estimate the climatic consequences of a doubling of the CO 2 concentration. Two variables, surface air temperature and precipitation, annually and seasonally averaged, are compared for both the current climate and for the predicted equilibrium changes after a doubling of the atmospheric CO 2 concentration. The major question considered here is: how well do the predictions from different GCMs agree with each other and with historical climatology over different areal extents, from the global scale down to the range of only several gridpoints? Although the models often agree well when estimating averages over large areas, substantial disagreements become apparent as the spatial scale is reduced. At scales below continental, the correlations observed between different model predictions are often very poor. The implications of this work for investigation of climatic impacts on a regional scale are profound. For these two important variables, at least, the poor agreement between model simulations of the current climate on the regional scale calls into question the ability of these models to quantitatively estimate future climatic change on anything approaching the scale of a few (< 10) gridpoints, which is essential if these results are to be used in meaningful resource-assessment studies. A stronger cooperative effort among the different modeling groups will be necessary to assure that we are getting better agreement for the right reasons, a prerequisite for improving confidence in model projections

  8. Understanding Thiel embalming in pig kidneys to develop a new circulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willaert, Wouter; De Vos, Marie; Van Hoof, Tom; Delrue, Louke; Pattyn, Piet; D'Herde, Katharina

    2015-01-01

    The quality of tissue preservation in Thiel embalmed bodies varies. Research on the administered embalming volume and its vascular distribution may elucidate one of the mechanisms of tissue preservation and allow for new applications of Thiel embalming. Vascular embalming with (group 1, n = 15) or without (group 2, n = 20) contrast agent was initiated in pig kidneys. The distribution of Thiel embalming solution in group 1 was visualized using computed tomography. The kidneys in both groups were then immersed in concentrated salt solutions to reduce their weight and volume. Afterwards, to mimic a lifelike circulation in the vessels, group 2 underwent pump-driven reperfusion for 120 minutes with either paraffinum perliquidum or diluted polyethylene glycol. The circulation was imaged with computed tomography. All of the kidneys were adequately preserved. The embalming solution spread diffusely in the kidney, but fluid accumulation was present. Subsequent immersion in concentrated salt solutions reduced weight (P embalming of kidneys results in successful preservation due to complete parenchymatous spreading. More research is needed to determine whether other factors affect embalming quality. Dehydration is an effective method to regain the organs' initial status. Prolonged vascular reperfusion with paraffinum perliquidum can be established in this model without increases in weight, volume and pressure.

  9. Model Validation for Simulations of Vehicle Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-01

    jackknife”, Annals of Statistics, 7:1-26, 1979. [45] B. Efron and G. Gong, “A leisurely look at the bootstrap, the jackknife, and cross-validation”, The...battery model developed in the Automotive Research Center, a US Army Center of Excellence for modeling and simulation of ground vehicle systems...Sandia National Laboratories and a battery model developed in the Automotive Research Center, a US Army Center of Excellence for modeling and simulation

  10. Models for Validation of Prior Learning (VPL)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ehlers, Søren

    The national policies for the education/training of adults are in the 21st century highly influenced by proposals which are formulated and promoted by The European Union (EU) as well as other transnational players and this shift in policy making has consequences. One is that ideas which in the past...... would have been categorized as utopian can become realpolitik. Validation of Prior Learning (VPL) was in Europe mainly regarded as utopian while universities in the United States of America (USA) were developing ways to obtain credits to those students which was coming with experiences from working life....

  11. Using virtual reality to validate system models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winter, V.L.; Caudell, T.P.

    1999-12-09

    To date most validation techniques are highly biased towards calculations involving symbolic representations of problems. These calculations are either formal (in the case of consistency and completeness checks), or informal in the case of code inspections. The authors believe that an essential type of evidence of the correctness of the formalization process must be provided by (i.e., must originate from) human-based calculation. They further believe that human calculation can by significantly amplified by shifting from symbolic representations to graphical representations. This paper describes their preliminary efforts in realizing such a representational shift.

  12. Numerical modelling 2 D and 3 D of circulating fluidized bed: application to the realization of regime diagrams; Modelisation numerique 2D et 3D de lit fluidise circulant: application a la realisation du diagramme des regimes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Begis, J.; Balzer, G.

    1997-02-01

    The numerical modelling of internal CFB boilers flows faced with complex phenomenons due to the flows un-stationariness, the heterogeneousness of the particle size distribution, and interactions between the two phases and the walls. Our study consisted in applying numerical models to the experimental configuration of cold circulating fluidized bed studied at the Cerchar. Special attention was given to the analysis of particles - wall interactions models, stemming from Jenkins (1992) and Louge`s (1994) theories, as well as the influence of the particles on fluid turbulence. In order to realize numerical simulations, we have used Eulerian two-phases flow codes developed at NHL medolif(2D), ESTET-ASTRID(3D). From different tests we have deducted that the most appropriate model for the realization of CFB`s prediction is the model taking in account the influence of particles on fluid turbulence. Then, to evaluate the validity limits of this model, we have built the regime diagram, and we have compared it with the experimental diagram. We have concluded that the simulation allows to describe the different CFB`s working regimes, and especially transitions. We have also noticed the importance of the choice of the mean diameter of the simulated particles. In this way, making a correction of the simulated particles` diameter in comparison with Sauter mean particle diameter, we obtained numerical results in good agreement with experimental data. (authors) 13 refs.

  13. Discrepancies in tropical upper tropospheric warming between atmospheric circulation models and satellites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Po-Chedley, Stephen; Fu Qiang

    2012-01-01

    Recent studies have examined tropical upper tropospheric warming by comparing coupled atmosphere–ocean global circulation model (GCM) simulations from Phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) with satellite and radiosonde observations of warming in the tropical upper troposphere relative to the lower-middle troposphere. These studies showed that models tended to overestimate increases in static stability between the upper and lower-middle troposphere. We revisit this issue using atmospheric GCMs with prescribed historical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and coupled atmosphere–ocean GCMs that participated in the latest model intercomparison project, CMIP5. It is demonstrated that even with historical SSTs as a boundary condition, most atmospheric models exhibit excessive tropical upper tropospheric warming relative to the lower-middle troposphere as compared with satellite-borne microwave sounding unit measurements. It is also shown that the results from CMIP5 coupled atmosphere–ocean GCMs are similar to findings from CMIP3 coupled GCMs. The apparent model-observational difference for tropical upper tropospheric warming represents an important problem, but it is not clear whether the difference is a result of common biases in GCMs, biases in observational datasets, or both. (letter)

  14. The Tropical Subseasonal Variability Simulated in the NASA GISS General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Daehyun; Sobel, Adam H.; DelGenio, Anthony D.; Chen, Yonghua; Camargo, Suzana J.; Yao, Mao-Sung; Kelley, Maxwell; Nazarenko, Larissa

    2012-01-01

    The tropical subseasonal variability simulated by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model, Model E2, is examined. Several versions of Model E2 were developed with changes to the convective parameterization in order to improve the simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). When the convective scheme is modified to have a greater fractional entrainment rate, Model E2 is able to simulate MJO-like disturbances with proper spatial and temporal scales. Increasing the rate of rain reevaporation has additional positive impacts on the simulated MJO. The improvement in MJO simulation comes at the cost of increased biases in the mean state, consistent in structure and amplitude with those found in other GCMs when tuned to have a stronger MJO. By reinitializing a relatively poor-MJO version with restart files from a relatively better-MJO version, a series of 30-day integrations is constructed to examine the impacts of the parameterization changes on the organization of tropical convection. The poor-MJO version with smaller entrainment rate has a tendency to allow convection to be activated over a broader area and to reduce the contrast between dry and wet regimes so that tropical convection becomes less organized. Besides the MJO, the number of tropical-cyclone-like vortices simulated by the model is also affected by changes in the convection scheme. The model simulates a smaller number of such storms globally with a larger entrainment rate, while the number increases significantly with a greater rain reevaporation rate.

  15. A commentary on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation stability in climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gent, Peter R.

    2018-02-01

    The stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in ocean models depends quite strongly on the model formulation, especially the vertical mixing, and whether it is coupled to an atmosphere model. A hysteresis loop in AMOC strength with respect to freshwater forcing has been found in several intermediate complexity climate models and in one fully coupled climate model that has very coarse resolution. Over 40% of modern climate models are in a bistable AMOC state according to the very frequently used simple stability criterion which is based solely on the sign of the AMOC freshwater transport across 33° S. In a recent freshwater hosing experiment in a climate model with an eddy-permitting ocean component, the change in the gyre freshwater transport across 33° S is larger than the AMOC freshwater transport change. This casts very strong doubt on the usefulness of this simple AMOC stability criterion. If a climate model uses large surface flux adjustments, then these adjustments can interfere with the atmosphere-ocean feedbacks, and strongly change the AMOC stability properties. AMOC can be shut off for many hundreds of years in modern fully coupled climate models if the hosing or carbon dioxide forcing is strong enough. However, in one climate model the AMOC recovers after between 1000 and 1400 years. Recent 1% increasing carbon dioxide runs and RCP8.5 future scenario runs have shown that the AMOC reduction is smaller using an eddy-resolving ocean component than in the comparable standard 1° ocean climate models.

  16. Development and validation of the 3-D CFD model for CANDU-6 moderator temperature predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoon, Churl; Rhee, Bo Wook; Min, Byung Joo

    2003-03-01

    A computational fluid dynamics model for predicting the moderator circulation inside the CANada Deuterium Uranium (CANDU) reactor vessel has been developed to estimate the local subcooling of the moderator in the vicinity of the Calandria tubes. The buoyancy effect induced by internal heating is accounted for by Boussinesq approximation. The standard κ-ε turbulence model associated with logarithmic wall treatment is applied to predict the turbulent jet flows from the inlet nozzles. The matrix of the Calandria tubes in the core region is simplified to porous media, in which an-isotropic hydraulic impedance is modeled using an empirical correlation of the frictional pressure loss. The governing equations are solved by CFX-4.4, a commercial CFD code developed by AEA technology. The CFD model has been successfully verified and validated against experimental data obtained in the Stern Laboratories Inc. (SLI) in Hamilton, Ontario

  17. Validating Computational Cognitive Process Models across Multiple Timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Christopher; Gluck, Kevin; Gunzelmann, Glenn; Krusmark, Michael

    2010-12-01

    Model comparison is vital to evaluating progress in the fields of artificial general intelligence (AGI) and cognitive architecture. As they mature, AGI and cognitive architectures will become increasingly capable of providing a single model that completes a multitude of tasks, some of which the model was not specifically engineered to perform. These models will be expected to operate for extended periods of time and serve functional roles in real-world contexts. Questions arise regarding how to evaluate such models appropriately, including issues pertaining to model comparison and validation. In this paper, we specifically address model validation across multiple levels of abstraction, using an existing computational process model of unmanned aerial vehicle basic maneuvering to illustrate the relationship between validity and timescales of analysis.

  18. Validation of elk resource selection models with spatially independent data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priscilla K. Coe; Bruce K. Johnson; Michael J. Wisdom; John G. Cook; Marty Vavra; Ryan M. Nielson

    2011-01-01

    Knowledge of how landscape features affect wildlife resource use is essential for informed management. Resource selection functions often are used to make and validate predictions about landscape use; however, resource selection functions are rarely validated with data from landscapes independent of those from which the models were built. This problem has severely...

  19. A Practical Approach to Validating a PD Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Medema, L.; Koning, de R.; Lensink, B.W.

    2009-01-01

    The capital adequacy framework Basel II aims to promote the adoption of stronger risk management practices by the banking industry. The implementation makes validation of credit risk models more important. Lenders therefore need a validation methodology to convince their supervisors that their

  20. Amendment to Validated dynamic flow model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Torben

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of WP2 is to establish flow models relating the wind speed at turbines in a farm. Until now, active control of power reference has not been included in these models as only data with standard operation has been available. In this report the first data series with power reference excit...... turbine in undisturbed flow. For this data set both the multiplicative model and in particular the simple first order transfer function model can predict the down wind wind speed from upwind wind speed and loading.......The purpose of WP2 is to establish flow models relating the wind speed at turbines in a farm. Until now, active control of power reference has not been included in these models as only data with standard operation has been available. In this report the first data series with power reference...

  1. An Approach to Comprehensive and Sustainable Solar Wind Model Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rastaetter, L.; MacNeice, P. J.; Mays, M. L.; Boblitt, J. M.; Wiegand, C.

    2017-12-01

    The number of models of the corona and inner heliosphere and of their updates and upgrades grows steadily, as does the number and character of the model inputs. Maintaining up to date validation of these models, in the face of this constant model evolution, is a necessary but very labor intensive activity. In the last year alone, both NASA's LWS program and the CCMC's ongoing support of model forecasting activities at NOAA SWPC have sought model validation reports on the quality of all aspects of the community's coronal and heliospheric models, including both ambient and CME related wind solutions at L1. In this presentation I will give a brief review of the community's previous model validation results of L1 wind representation. I will discuss the semi-automated web based system we are constructing at the CCMC to present comparative visualizations of all interesting aspects of the solutions from competing models.This system is designed to be easily queried to provide the essential comprehensive inputs to repeat andupdate previous validation studies and support extensions to them. I will illustrate this by demonstrating how the system is being used to support the CCMC/LWS Model Assessment Forum teams focused on the ambient and time dependent corona and solar wind, including CME arrival time and IMF Bz.I will also discuss plans to extend the system to include results from the Forum teams addressing SEP model validation.

  2. Ion channel model development and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Peter Hugo

    2010-03-01

    The structure of the KcsA ion channel selectivity filter is used to develop three simple models of ion channel permeation. The quantitative predictions of the knock-on model are tested by comparison with experimental data from single-channel recordings of the KcsA channel. By comparison with experiment, students discover that the knock-on model can't explain saturation of ion channel current as the concentrations of the bathing solutions are increased. By inverting the energy diagram, students derive the association-dissociation model of ion channel permeation. This model predicts non-linear Michaelis-Menten saturating behavior that requires students to perform non-linear least-squares fits to the experimental data. This is done using Excel's solver feature. Students discover that this simple model does an excellent job of explaining the qualitative features of ion channel permeation but cannot account for changes in voltage sensitivity. The model is then extended to include an electrical dissociation distance. This rapid translocation model is then compared with experimental data from a wide variety of ion channels and students discover that this model also has its limitations. Support from NSF DUE 0836833 is gratefully acknowledged.

  3. Oceanic circulation models help to predict global biogeography of pelagic yellow-bellied sea snake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brischoux, François; Cotté, Cédric; Lillywhite, Harvey B; Bailleul, Frédéric; Lalire, Maxime; Gaspar, Philippe

    2016-08-01

    It is well recognized that most marine vertebrates, and especially tetrapods, precisely orient and actively move in apparently homogeneous oceanic environments. Here, we investigate the presumptive role of oceanic currents in biogeographic patterns observed in a secondarily marine tetrapod, the yellow-bellied sea snake (Hydrophis [Pelamis] platurus). State-of-the-art world ocean circulation models show how H. platurus, the only pelagic species of sea snake, can potentially exploit oceanic currents to disperse and maintain population mixing between localities that spread over two-thirds of the Earth's circumference. The very close association of these snakes with surface currents seems to provide a highly efficient dispersal mechanism that allowed this species to range extensively and relatively quickly well beyond the central Indo-Pacific area, the centre of origin, abundance and diversity of sea snakes. Our results further suggest that the pan-oceanic population of this species must be extraordinarily large. © 2016 The Author(s).

  4. The sensitivity of latent heat flux to the air humidity approximations used in ocean circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, W. Timothy; Niiler, Pearn P.

    1990-01-01

    In deriving the surface latent heat flux with the bulk formula for the thermal forcing of some ocean circulation models, two approximations are commonly made to bypass the use of atmospheric humidity in the formula. The first assumes a constant relative humidity, and the second supposes that the sea-air humidity difference varies linearly with the saturation humidity at sea surface temperature. Using climatological fields derived from the Marine Deck and long time series from ocean weather stations, the errors introduced by these two assumptions are examined. It is shown that the errors reach above 100 W/sq m over western boundary currents and 50 W/sq m over the tropical ocean. The two approximations also introduce erroneous seasonal and spatial variabilities with magnitudes over 50 percent of the observed variabilities.

  5. Effect of cloud-radiation feedback on the climate of a general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, J.; Sud, Y.

    1981-01-01

    Experiments are described which show significant changes in the simulated large-scale dynamical circulation of a global model. Fixed clouds acting as zonally asymmetric radiative heat sources increase the generation of eddy available potential energy (EAPE) and the energy's conversion to eddy kinetic energy. Generation of EAPE by net radiative heating increases by 50% (0.11 W/sq m) for the fixed cloud experiment. The increase caused by the stationary component is much larger (approximately 100%), but it is partially compensated by a decrease caused by the transient component. A substantial increase is found in the variances of the planetary-scale stationary waves and the medium-scale waves of 2.7 day period. Although the sea surface temperatures are prescribed identically in both integrations, the changes in evaporation and precipitation are found to be much larger over the oceans than over the land.

  6. Impact of variable seawater conductivity on motional induction simulated with an ocean general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irrgang, C.; Saynisch, J.; Thomas, M.

    2016-01-01

    Carrying high concentrations of dissolved salt, ocean water is a good electrical conductor. As seawater flows through the Earth's ambient geomagnetic field, electric fields are generated, which in turn induce secondary magnetic fields. In current models for ocean-induced magnetic fields, a realistic consideration of seawater conductivity is often neglected and the effect on the variability of the ocean-induced magnetic field unknown. To model magnetic fields that are induced by non-tidal global ocean currents, an electromagnetic induction model is implemented into the Ocean Model for Circulation and Tides (OMCT). This provides the opportunity to not only model ocean-induced magnetic signals but also to assess the impact of oceanographic phenomena on the induction process. In this paper, the sensitivity of the induction process due to spatial and temporal variations in seawater conductivity is investigated. It is shown that assuming an ocean-wide uniform conductivity is insufficient to accurately capture the temporal variability of the magnetic signal. Using instead a realistic global seawater conductivity distribution increases the temporal variability of the magnetic field up to 45 %. Especially vertical gradients in seawater conductivity prove to be a key factor for the variability of the ocean-induced magnetic field. However, temporal variations of seawater conductivity only marginally affect the magnetic signal.

  7. Evaluation of rainfall simulations over West Africa in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 global circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akinsanola, A. A.; Ajayi, V. O.; Adejare, A. T.; Adeyeri, O. E.; Gbode, I. E.; Ogunjobi, K. O.; Nikulin, G.; Abolude, A. T.

    2018-04-01

    This study presents evaluation of the ability of Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4) driven by nine global circulation models (GCMs), to skilfully reproduce the key features of rainfall climatology over West Africa for the period of 1980-2005. The seasonal climatology and annual cycle of the RCA4 simulations were assessed over three homogenous subregions of West Africa (Guinea coast, Savannah, and Sahel) and evaluated using observed precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Furthermore, the model output was evaluated using a wide range of statistical measures. The interseasonal and interannual variability of the RCA4 were further assessed over the subregions and the whole of the West Africa domain. Results indicate that the RCA4 captures the spatial and interseasonal rainfall pattern adequately but exhibits a weak performance over the Guinea coast. Findings from the interannual rainfall variability indicate that the model performance is better over the larger West Africa domain than the subregions. The largest difference across the RCA4 simulated annual rainfall was found in the Sahel. Result from the Mann-Kendall test showed no significant trend for the 1980-2005 period in annual rainfall either in GPCP observation data or in the model simulations over West Africa. In many aspects, the RCA4 simulation driven by the HadGEM2-ES perform best over the region. The use of the multimodel ensemble mean has resulted to the improved representation of rainfall characteristics over the study domain.

  8. A validated physical model of greenhouse climate.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bot, G.P.A.

    1989-01-01

    In the greenhouse model the momentaneous environmental crop growth factors are calculated as output, together with the physical behaviour of the crop. The boundary conditions for this model are the outside weather conditions; other inputs are the physical characteristics of the crop, of the

  9. Extending Model Checking To Object Process Validation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Rein, H.

    2002-01-01

    Object-oriented techniques allow the gathering and modelling of system requirements in terms of an application area. The expression of data and process models at that level is a great asset in communication with non-technical people in that area, but it does not necessarily lead to consistent

  10. Validity of microgravity simulation models on earth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Regnard, J; Heer, M; Drummer, C

    2001-01-01

    Many studies have used water immersion and head-down bed rest as experimental models to simulate responses to microgravity. However, some data collected during space missions are at variance or in contrast with observations collected from experimental models. These discrepancies could reflect inc...

  11. Simulation of Lake Victoria Circulation Patterns Using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyamweya, Chrispine; Desjardins, Christopher; Sigurdsson, Sven; Tomasson, Tumi; Taabu-Munyaho, Anthony; Sitoki, Lewis; Stefansson, Gunnar

    2016-01-01

    Lake Victoria provides important ecosystem services including transport, water for domestic and industrial uses and fisheries to about 33 million inhabitants in three East African countries. The lake plays an important role in modulating regional climate. Its thermodynamics and hydrodynamics are also influenced by prevailing climatic and weather conditions on diel, seasonal and annual scales. However, information on water temperature and circulation in the lake is limited in space and time. We use a Regional Oceanographic Model System (ROMS) to simulate these processes from 1st January 2000 to 31st December 2014. The model is based on real bathymetry, river runoff and atmospheric forcing data using the bulk flux algorithm. Simulations show that the water column exhibits annual cycles of thermo-stratification (September-May) and mixing (June-August). Surface water currents take different patterns ranging from a lake-wide northward flow to gyres that vary in size and number. An under flow exists that leads to the formation of upwelling and downwelling regions. Current velocities are highest at the center of the lake and on the western inshore waters indicating enhanced water circulation in those areas. However, there is little exchange of water between the major gulfs (especially Nyanza) and the open lake, a factor that could be responsible for the different water quality reported in those regions. Findings of the present study enhance understanding of the physical processes (temperature and currents) that have an effect on diel, seasonal, and annual variations in stratification, vertical mixing, inshore-offshore exchanges and fluxes of nutrients that ultimately influence the biotic distribution and trophic structure. For instance information on areas/timing of upwelling and vertical mixing obtained from this study will help predict locations/seasons of high primary production and ultimately fisheries productivity in Lake Victoria.

  12. Simulation of Lake Victoria Circulation Patterns Using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chrispine Nyamweya

    Full Text Available Lake Victoria provides important ecosystem services including transport, water for domestic and industrial uses and fisheries to about 33 million inhabitants in three East African countries. The lake plays an important role in modulating regional climate. Its thermodynamics and hydrodynamics are also influenced by prevailing climatic and weather conditions on diel, seasonal and annual scales. However, information on water temperature and circulation in the lake is limited in space and time. We use a Regional Oceanographic Model System (ROMS to simulate these processes from 1st January 2000 to 31st December 2014. The model is based on real bathymetry, river runoff and atmospheric forcing data using the bulk flux algorithm. Simulations show that the water column exhibits annual cycles of thermo-stratification (September-May and mixing (June-August. Surface water currents take different patterns ranging from a lake-wide northward flow to gyres that vary in size and number. An under flow exists that leads to the formation of upwelling and downwelling regions. Current velocities are highest at the center of the lake and on the western inshore waters indicating enhanced water circulation in those areas. However, there is little exchange of water between the major gulfs (especially Nyanza and the open lake, a factor that could be responsible for the different water quality reported in those regions. Findings of the present study enhance understanding of the physical processes (temperature and currents that have an effect on diel, seasonal, and annual variations in stratification, vertical mixing, inshore-offshore exchanges and fluxes of nutrients that ultimately influence the biotic distribution and trophic structure. For instance information on areas/timing of upwelling and vertical mixing obtained from this study will help predict locations/seasons of high primary production and ultimately fisheries productivity in Lake Victoria.

  13. Comparison of an isotopic atmospheric general circulation model with new quasi-global satellite measurements of water vapor isotopologues

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yoshimura, K.; Frankenberg, C.; Kanamitsu, M.; Worden, J.; Roeckmann, T.

    2011-01-01

    We performed an intensive comparison of an isotope‐incorporated atmospheric general circulation model with vapor isotopologue ratio observation data by two quasi‐global satellite sensors in preparation for data assimilation of water isotope ratios. A global Isotope‐incorporated Global Spectral Model

  14. Statistical Validation of Engineering and Scientific Models: Background

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hills, Richard G.; Trucano, Timothy G.

    1999-01-01

    A tutorial is presented discussing the basic issues associated with propagation of uncertainty analysis and statistical validation of engineering and scientific models. The propagation of uncertainty tutorial illustrates the use of the sensitivity method and the Monte Carlo method to evaluate the uncertainty in predictions for linear and nonlinear models. Four example applications are presented; a linear model, a model for the behavior of a damped spring-mass system, a transient thermal conduction model, and a nonlinear transient convective-diffusive model based on Burger's equation. Correlated and uncorrelated model input parameters are considered. The model validation tutorial builds on the material presented in the propagation of uncertainty tutoriaI and uses the damp spring-mass system as the example application. The validation tutorial illustrates several concepts associated with the application of statistical inference to test model predictions against experimental observations. Several validation methods are presented including error band based, multivariate, sum of squares of residuals, and optimization methods. After completion of the tutorial, a survey of statistical model validation literature is presented and recommendations for future work are made

  15. An advanced computational bioheat transfer model for a human body with an embedded systemic circulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coccarelli, Alberto; Boileau, Etienne; Parthimos, Dimitris; Nithiarasu, Perumal

    2016-10-01

    In the present work, an elaborate one-dimensional thermofluid model for a human body is presented. By contrast to the existing pure conduction-/perfusion-based models, the proposed methodology couples the arterial fluid dynamics of a human body with a multi-segmental bioheat model of surrounding solid tissues. In the present configuration, arterial flow is included through a network of elastic vessels. More than a dozen solid segments are employed to represent the heat conduction in the surrounding tissues, and each segment is constituted by a multilayered circular cylinder. Such multi-layers allow flexible delineation of the geometry and incorporation of properties of different tissue types. The coupling of solid tissue and fluid models requires subdivision of the arterial circulation into large and small arteries. The heat exchange between tissues and arterial wall occurs by convection in large vessels and by perfusion in small arteries. The core region, including the heart, provides the inlet conditions for the fluid equations. In the proposed model, shivering, sweating, and perfusion changes constitute the basis of the thermoregulatory system. The equations governing flow and heat transfer in the circulatory system are solved using a locally conservative Galerkin approach, and the heat conduction in the surrounding tissues is solved using a standard implicit backward Euler method. To investigate the effectiveness of the proposed model, temperature field evolutions are monitored at different points of the arterial tree and in the surrounding tissue layers. To study the differences due to flow-induced convection effects on thermal balance, the results of the current model are compared against those of the widely used modelling methodologies. The results show that the convection significantly influences the temperature distribution of the solid tissues in the vicinity of the arteries. Thus, the inner convection has a more predominant role in the human body heat

  16. Validity of microgravity simulation models on earth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Regnard, J; Heer, M; Drummer, C

    2001-01-01

    incomplete knowledge of the characteristics inherent to each model. During water immersion, the hydrostatic pressure lowers the peripheral vascular capacity and causes increased thoracic blood volume and high vascular perfusion. In turn, these changes lead to high urinary flow, low vasomotor tone, and a high...... a negative pressure around the body. The differences in renal function between space and experimental models appear to be explained by the physical forces affecting tissues and hemodynamics as well as by the changes secondary to these forces. These differences may help in selecting experimental models...

  17. Validation of ecological state space models using the Laplace approximation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Albertsen, Christoffer Moesgaard; Berg, Casper Willestofte

    2017-01-01

    for estimation in general mixed effects models. Implementing one-step predictions in the R package Template Model Builder, we demonstrate that it is possible to perform model validation with little effort, even if the ecological model is multivariate, has non-linear dynamics, and whether observations...... are continuous or discrete. With both simulated data, and a real data set related to geolocation of seals, we demonstrate both the potential and the limitations of the techniques. Our results fill a need for convenient methods for validating a state space model, or alternatively, rejecting it while indicating...

  18. Transfer Entropy as a Tool for Hydrodynamic Model Validation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alicia Sendrowski

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The validation of numerical models is an important component of modeling to ensure reliability of model outputs under prescribed conditions. In river deltas, robust validation of models is paramount given that models are used to forecast land change and to track water, solid, and solute transport through the deltaic network. We propose using transfer entropy (TE to validate model results. TE quantifies the information transferred between variables in terms of strength, timescale, and direction. Using water level data collected in the distributary channels and inter-channel islands of Wax Lake Delta, Louisiana, USA, along with modeled water level data generated for the same locations using Delft3D, we assess how well couplings between external drivers (river discharge, tides, wind and modeled water levels reproduce the observed data couplings. We perform this operation through time using ten-day windows. Modeled and observed couplings compare well; their differences reflect the spatial parameterization of wind and roughness in the model, which prevents the model from capturing high frequency fluctuations of water level. The model captures couplings better in channels than on islands, suggesting that mechanisms of channel-island connectivity are not fully represented in the model. Overall, TE serves as an additional validation tool to quantify the couplings of the system of interest at multiple spatial and temporal scales.

  19. VERIFICATION AND VALIDATION OF THE SPARC MODEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathematical models for predicting the transport and fate of pollutants in the environment require reactivity parameter values--that is, the physical and chemical constants that govern reactivity. Although empirical structure-activity relationships that allow estimation of some ...

  20. Base Flow Model Validation, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The program focuses on turbulence modeling enhancements for predicting high-speed rocket base flows. A key component of the effort is the collection of high-fidelity...

  1. Improving groundwater predictions utilizing seasonal precipitation forecasts from general circulation models forced with sea surface temperature forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almanaseer, Naser; Sankarasubramanian, A.; Bales, Jerad

    2014-01-01

    Recent studies have found a significant association between climatic variability and basin hydroclimatology, particularly groundwater levels, over the southeast United States. The research reported in this paper evaluates the potential in developing 6-month-ahead groundwater-level forecasts based on the precipitation forecasts from ECHAM 4.5 General Circulation Model Forced with Sea Surface Temperature forecasts. Ten groundwater wells and nine streamgauges from the USGS Groundwater Climate Response Network and Hydro-Climatic Data Network were selected to represent groundwater and surface water flows, respectively, having minimal anthropogenic influences within the Flint River Basin in Georgia, United States. The writers employ two low-dimensional models [principle component regression (PCR) and canonical correlation analysis (CCA)] for predicting groundwater and streamflow at both seasonal and monthly timescales. Three modeling schemes are considered at the beginning of January to predict winter (January, February, and March) and spring (April, May, and June) streamflow and groundwater for the selected sites within the Flint River Basin. The first scheme (model 1) is a null model and is developed using PCR for every streamflow and groundwater site using previous 3-month observations (October, November, and December) available at that particular site as predictors. Modeling schemes 2 and 3 are developed using PCR and CCA, respectively, to evaluate the role of precipitation forecasts in improving monthly and seasonal groundwater predictions. Modeling scheme 3, which employs a CCA approach, is developed for each site by considering observed groundwater levels from nearby sites as predictands. The performance of these three schemes is evaluated using two metrics (correlation coefficient and relative RMS error) by developing groundwater-level forecasts based on leave-five-out cross-validation. Results from the research reported in this paper show that using

  2. Validating predictions from climate envelope models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watling, J.; Bucklin, D.; Speroterra, C.; Brandt, L.; Cabal, C.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2013-01-01

    Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species’ distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967–1971 (t1) and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998–2002 (t2). Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences) was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences) was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on species.

  3. Validating predictions from climate envelope models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James I Watling

    Full Text Available Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species' distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967-1971 (t1 and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998-2002 (t2. Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on

  4. Validation of Modeling Flow Approaching Navigation Locks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    USACE, Pittsburgh District ( LRP ) requested that the US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and ERDC/CHL TR-13-9 2 Hydraulics...approaching the lock and dam. The second set of experiments considered a design, referred to as Plan B lock approach, which contained the weir field in...conditions and model parameters A discharge of 1.35 cfs was set as the inflow boundary condition at the upstream end of the model. The outflow boundary was

  5. Development of a Conservative Model Validation Approach for Reliable Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    conservativeness level , the conservative probability of failure obtained from Section 4 must be maintained. The mathematical formulation of conservative model... CIE 2015 August 2-5, 2015, Boston, Massachusetts, USA [DRAFT] DETC2015-46982 DEVELOPMENT OF A CONSERVATIVE MODEL VALIDATION APPROACH FOR RELIABLE...PDF and a probability of failure are selected from these predicted output PDFs at a user-specified conservativeness level for validation. For

  6. Effect of AMOC collapse on ENSO in a high resolution general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, Mark S.; Collins, Mat; Drijfhout, Sybren S.; Kahana, Ron; Mecking, Jennifer V.; Lenton, Timothy M.

    2018-04-01

    We look at changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a high-resolution eddy-permitting climate model experiment in which the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC) is switched off using freshwater hosing. The ENSO mode is shifted eastward and its period becomes longer and more regular when the AMOC is off. The eastward shift can be attributed to an anomalous eastern Ekman transport in the mean equatorial Pacific ocean state. Convergence of this transport deepens the thermocline in the eastern tropical Pacific and increases the temperature anomaly relaxation time, causing increased ENSO period. The anomalous Ekman transport is caused by a surface northerly wind anomaly in response to the meridional sea surface temperature dipole that results from switching the AMOC off. In contrast to a previous study with an earlier version of the model, which showed an increase in ENSO amplitude in an AMOC off experiment, here the amplitude remains the same as in the AMOC on control state. We attribute this difference to variations in the response of decreased stochastic forcing in the different models, which competes with the reduced damping of temperature anomalies. In the new high-resolution model, these effects approximately cancel resulting in no change in amplitude.

  7. Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model for the Ionospheric Connection Explorer: TIEGCM-ICON

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maute, Astrid

    2017-10-01

    The NASA Ionospheric Connection explorer (ICON) will study the coupling between the thermosphere and ionosphere at low- and mid-latitudes by measuring the key parameters. The ICON mission will also employ numerical modeling to support the interpretation of the observations, and examine the importance of different vertical coupling mechanisms by conducting numerical experiments. One of these models is the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model-ICON (TIEGCM-ICON) which will be driven by tidal perturbations derived from ICON observations using the Hough Mode Extension method (HME) and at high latitude by ion convection and auroral particle precipitation patterns from the Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics (AMIE). The TIEGCM-ICON will simulate the thermosphere-ionosphere (TI) system during the period of the ICON mission. In this report the TIEGCM-ICON is introduced, and the focus is on examining the effect of the lower boundary on the TI-system to provide some guidance for interpreting future ICON model results.

  8. Stability of the interhemispheric thermohaline circulation in a coupled box model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Peter H.; Krasovskiy, Yuriy P.

    1999-07-01

    The coupled atmosphere-ocean box model of the interhemispheric thermohaline circulation (THC) formulated by Scott et al. [Scott, J.R., Marotzke, J., Stone, P.H., 1999. Interhemispheric THC in a coupled box model. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 29, 351-365.] is solved analytically, by introducing the approximation that the time variations of salinity in the ocean are much slower than the time variations in the temperature. The analytic solution shows that there is an unstable limit cycle near the bifurcation where the flow becomes unstable, as suggested by Scott et al.'s numerical solutions. The solution also leads to an analytic expression for the conditions under which the instability discovered by Scott et al. sets in, which is more general than that found by Scott et al. In particular, it includes the effect of coupling the THC to the atmospheric meridional transports of heat and moisture. It shows that the stability of THC is much more sensitive to the representation of the atmospheric heat transport, i.e., to how it depends on the meridional temperature gradient, than it is in hemispheric models. In particular, it shows that interhemispheric ocean models that use mixed boundary conditions, or couple the ocean to a diffusive representation of the atmospheric heat transport, are less susceptible to this kind of instability than when the ocean is coupled to a representation of the atmospheric meridional heat transport which is more sensitive to the meridional temperature gradient, as is implied by observations and theory.

  9. A regional ocean circulation model for the mid-Cretaceous North Atlantic Basin: implications for black shale formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. P. M. Topper

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available High concentrations of organic matter accumulated in marine sediments during Oceanic Anoxic Events (OAEs in the Cretaceous. Model studies examining these events invariably make use of global ocean circulation models. In this study, a regional model for the North Atlantic Basin during OAE2 at the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary has been developed. A first order check of the results has been performed by comparison with the results of a recent global Cenomanian CCSM3 run, from which boundary and initial conditions were obtained. The regional model is able to maintain tracer patterns and to produce velocity patterns similar to the global model. The sensitivity of the basin tracer and circulation patterns to changes in the geometry of the connections with the global ocean is examined with three experiments with different bathymetries near the sponges. Different geometries turn out to have little effect on tracer distribution, but do affect circulation and upwelling patterns. The regional model is also used to test the hypothesis that ocean circulation may have been behind the deposition of black shales during OAEs. Three scenarios are tested which are thought to represent pre-OAE, OAE and post-OAE situations. Model results confirm that Pacific intermediate inflow together with coastal upwelling could have enhanced primary production during OAE2. A low sea level in the pre-OAE scenario could have inhibited large scale black shale formation, as could have the opening of the Equatorial Atlantic Seaway in the post-OAE scenario.

  10. Risk Factor Analyses for the Return of Spontaneous Circulation in the Asphyxiation Cardiac Arrest Porcine Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cai-Jun Wu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Animal models of asphyxiation cardiac arrest (ACA are frequently used in basic research to mirror the clinical course of cardiac arrest (CA. The rates of the return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC in ACA animal models are lower than those from studies that have utilized ventricular fibrillation (VF animal models. The purpose of this study was to characterize the factors associated with the ROSC in the ACA porcine model. Methods: Forty-eight healthy miniature pigs underwent endotracheal tube clamping to induce CA. Once induced, CA was maintained untreated for a period of 8 min. Two minutes following the initiation of cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR, defibrillation was attempted until ROSC was achieved or the animal died. To assess the factors associated with ROSC in this CA model, logistic regression analyses were performed to analyze gender, the time of preparation, the amplitude spectrum area (AMSA from the beginning of CPR and the pH at the beginning of CPR. A receiver-operating characteristic (ROC curve was used to evaluate the predictive value of AMSA for ROSC. Results: ROSC was only 52.1% successful in this ACA porcine model. The multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that ROSC significantly depended on the time of preparation, AMSA at the beginning of CPR and pH at the beginning of CPR. The area under the ROC curve in for AMSA at the beginning of CPR was 0.878 successful in predicting ROSC (95% confidence intervals: 0.773∼0.983, and the optimum cut-off value was 15.62 (specificity 95.7% and sensitivity 80.0%. Conclusions: The time of preparation, AMSA and the pH at the beginning of CPR were associated with ROSC in this ACA porcine model. AMSA also predicted the likelihood of ROSC in this ACA animal model.

  11. Influence of Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions on the global water isotope distribution in an atmospheric general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Tharammal

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available To understand the validity of δ18O proxy records as indicators of past temperature change, a series of experiments was conducted using an atmospheric general circulation model fitted with water isotope tracers (Community Atmosphere Model version 3.0, IsoCAM. A pre-industrial simulation was performed as the control experiment, as well as a simulation with all the boundary conditions set to Last Glacial Maximum (LGM values. Results from the pre-industrial and LGM simulations were compared to experiments in which the influence of individual boundary conditions (greenhouse gases, ice sheet albedo and topography, sea surface temperature (SST, and orbital parameters were changed each at a time to assess their individual impact. The experiments were designed in order to analyze the spatial variations of the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation (δ18Oprecip in response to individual climate factors. The change in topography (due to the change in land ice cover played a significant role in reducing the surface temperature and δ18Oprecip over North America. Exposed shelf areas and the ice sheet albedo reduced the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature and δ18Oprecip further. A global mean cooling of 4.1 °C was simulated with combined LGM boundary conditions compared to the control simulation, which was in agreement with previous experiments using the fully coupled Community Climate System Model (CCSM3. Large reductions in δ18Oprecip over the LGM ice sheets were strongly linked to the temperature decrease over them. The SST and ice sheet topography changes were responsible for most of the changes in the climate and hence the δ18Oprecip distribution among the simulations.

  12. Traffic modelling validation of advanced driver assistance systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tongeren, R. van; Gietelink, O.J.; Schutter, B. de; Verhaegen, M.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a microscopic traffic model for the validation of advanced driver assistance systems. This model describes single-lane traffic and is calibrated with data from a field operational test. To illustrate the use of the model, a Monte Carlo simulation of single-lane traffic scenarios

  13. Context discovery using attenuated Bloom codes: model description and validation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, F.; Heijenk, Geert

    A novel approach to performing context discovery in ad-hoc networks based on the use of attenuated Bloom filters is proposed in this report. In order to investigate the performance of this approach, a model has been developed. This document describes the model and its validation. The model has been

  14. Validation of Model Forecasts of the Ambient Solar Wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macneice, P. J.; Hesse, M.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Rastaetter, L.; Taktakishvili, A.

    2009-01-01

    Independent and automated validation is a vital step in the progression of models from the research community into operational forecasting use. In this paper we describe a program in development at the CCMC to provide just such a comprehensive validation for models of the ambient solar wind in the inner heliosphere. We have built upon previous efforts published in the community, sharpened their definitions, and completed a baseline study. We also provide first results from this program of the comparative performance of the MHD models available at the CCMC against that of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. An important goal of this effort is to provide a consistent validation to all available models. Clearly exposing the relative strengths and weaknesses of the different models will enable forecasters to craft more reliable ensemble forecasting strategies. Models of the ambient solar wind are developing rapidly as a result of improvements in data supply, numerical techniques, and computing resources. It is anticipated that in the next five to ten years, the MHD based models will supplant semi-empirical potential based models such as the WSA model, as the best available forecast models. We anticipate that this validation effort will track this evolution and so assist policy makers in gauging the value of past and future investment in modeling support.

  15. Simulated pre-industrial climate in Bergen Climate Model (version 2: model description and large-scale circulation features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. H. Otterå

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The Bergen Climate Model (BCM is a fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice model that provides state-of-the-art computer simulations of the Earth's past, present, and future climate. Here, a pre-industrial multi-century simulation with an updated version of BCM is described and compared to observational data. The model is run without any form of flux adjustments and is stable for several centuries. The simulated climate reproduces the general large-scale circulation in the atmosphere reasonably well, except for a positive bias in the high latitude sea level pressure distribution. Also, by introducing an updated turbulence scheme in the atmosphere model a persistent cold bias has been eliminated. For the ocean part, the model drifts in sea surface temperatures and salinities are considerably reduced compared to earlier versions of BCM. Improved conservation properties in the ocean model have contributed to this. Furthermore, by choosing a reference pressure at 2000 m and including thermobaric effects in the ocean model, a more realistic meridional overturning circulation is simulated in the Atlantic Ocean. The simulated sea-ice extent in the Northern Hemisphere is in general agreement with observational data except for summer where the extent is somewhat underestimated. In the Southern Hemisphere, large negative biases are found in the simulated sea-ice extent. This is partly related to problems with the mixed layer parametrization, causing the mixed layer in the Southern Ocean to be too deep, which in turn makes it hard to maintain a realistic sea-ice cover here. However, despite some problematic issues, the pre-industrial control simulation presented here should still be appropriate for climate change studies requiring multi-century simulations.

  16. Average circulation, seasonal cycle, and mesoscale dynamics of the Peru Current System: A modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penven, P.; Echevin, V.; Pasapera, J.; Colas, F.; Tam, J.

    2005-10-01

    The Humboldt Current System is the most productive of the eastern boundary currents. In the northern part, the Peru Current System (PCS) is located between 5°S and 20°S. Along the Peruvian coast, an equatorward wind forces a strong coastal upwelling. A high resolution model is designed to investigate the mean circulation, the seasonal cycle, and the mesoscale dynamics for the PCS. The model is able to reproduce the equatorward Peru Coastal Current (PCC), the Peru Chile Under-Current (PCUC) which follows the shelf break towards the pole, and the Peru-Chile Counter-Current (PCCC) which flows directly towards the south and veers to the west around 15°S. While the upper part of the PCUC is close to the surface and might even outcrop as a counter current, the bottom part follows ? isolines. The PCCC appears to be directly forced by the cyclonic wind stress curl. The model is able to produce the upwelling front, the cold water tongue which extends toward the equator and the equatorial front as described in the literature. Model seasonal changes in SST and SSH are compared to measurements. For the central PCS, model EKE is 10% to 30% lower than the observations. The model eddy diameters follow a strong equatorward increase. The injection length scales, derived from the energy spectra, strongly correlate to the Rossby radius of deformation, confirming the predominant role of baroclinic instability. At 3°S, the model solution appears to switch from a turbulent oceanic regime to an equatorial regime dominated by zonal currents.

  17. Comparison of two general circulation models to downscale temperature and precipitation under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matyasovszky, Istvan; Bogardi, Istvan; Duckstein, Lucien

    1994-12-01

    A semiempirical approach for downscaling general circulation model (GCM) based daily atmospheric circulation patterns (CP) and predicting local climatological variables under climate change is developed. Specifically, the daily 500-hPa surface outputs of the Canadian Climate Center (CCC) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) (Germany) GCMs are linked stochastically, using a split sampling approach, to local temperature and precipitation in Nebraska. Three series of data are analyzed: historical data, 1 × CO2 GCM results and 2 × CO2 GCM results. Between these three data sets, no significant difference can be detected in either CP typology (constructed by principal component analysis and k means method) or stochastic properties of daily time series (Markov matrix). On the other hand, the average geopotential height of the 500-hPa pressure field exhibits significant change, labeled the ΔCO2 effect, between the 1 × CO2 and 2 × CO2 cases. Accordingly, climate change is assumed to be represented by the historical average geopotential height augmented by the ΔCO2 increment. It is found that both the CCC and MPI GCMs lead to predicting a winter temperature increase of 3°-6°C, a smaller but significant increase in spring and fall temperatures, and no increase in summer. The probability of precipitation occurrence is found to remain almost unchanged, as well as the dry period duration. The estimates of local response to climate change depend upon the location and the GCM used for downscaling the CP. The MPI GCM, which includes an ocean-atmosphere coupling, appears to yield smaller downscaled changes than the purely atmosphere-based CCC GCM.

  18. Equatorial Indian Ocean subsurface current variability in an Ocean General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gnanaseelan, C.; Deshpande, Aditi

    2018-03-01

    The variability of subsurface currents in the equatorial Indian Ocean is studied using high resolution Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) simulations during 1958-2009. February-March eastward equatorial subsurface current (ESC) shows weak variability whereas strong variability is observed in northern summer and fall ESC. An eastward subsurface current with maximum amplitude in the pycnocline is prominent right from summer to winter during strong Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) years when air-sea coupling is significant. On the other hand during weak IOD years, both the air-sea coupling and the ESC are weak. This strongly suggests the role of ESC on the strength of IOD. The extension of the ESC to the summer months during the strong IOD years strengthens the oceanic response and supports intensification and maintenance of IODs through modulation of air sea coupling. Although the ESC is triggered by equatorial winds, the coupled air-sea interaction associated with IODs strengthens the ESC to persist for several seasons thereby establishing a positive feedback cycle with the surface. This suggests that the ESC plays a significant role in the coupled processes associated with the evolution and intensification of IOD events by cooling the eastern basin and strengthening thermocline-SST (sea surface temperature) interaction. As the impact of IOD events on Indian summer monsoon is significant only during strong IOD years, understanding and monitoring the evolution of ESC during these years is important for summer monsoon forecasting purposes. There is a westward phase propagation of anomalous subsurface currents which persists for a year during strong IOD years, whereas such persistence or phase propagation is not seen during weak IOD years, supporting the close association between ESC and strength of air sea coupling during strong IOD years. In this study we report the processes which strengthen the IOD events and the air sea coupling associated with IOD. It also unravels

  19. Twenty-four hour cardiopulmonary stability in a model of assisted newborn Fontan circulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Cynthia D; Mattix, Kelly; Presson, Robert G; Vijay, Palaniswamy; Maynes, Domingo; Litwak, Kenneth N; Brown, John W; Rodefeld, Mark D

    2006-01-01

    Morbidity and mortality after stage-1 palliation of hypoplastic left heart syndrome is high as a result of adverse physiologic conditions imposed by the systemic-to-pulmonary arterial shunt. Conversion to a systemic venous source of pulmonary blood flow (Glenn/Fontan) substantially decreases instability and mortality risk. Cavopulmonary assist has the potential to eliminate critical dependence on the problematic systemic arterial shunt. We studied this support modality during a 24-hour period in a neonatal animal model of univentricular Fontan circulation. Lambs (8.1 +/- 0.9 kg, 8.3 +/- 2.1 days, n = 7) underwent total cavopulmonary diversion. A miniature centrifugal pump was used to assist cavopulmonary flow. Control animals (6.6 +/- 1.0 kg, 7.3 +/- 2.1 days, n = 11) underwent placement of monitoring lines only. Hemodynamic and gas exchange data were measured. Within-group and between-group comparisons were made using two-way repeated measures analysis of variance. After an initial phase of reactivity, pulmonary vascular resistance returned to low levels and was not significantly different from baseline values after hour 13 or significantly different from control values after hour 4. Systemic venous pressure remained low. Oxygenation and ventilation remained normal with no histologic evidence of parenchymal lung injury. Pump-assisted cavopulmonary diversion is well tolerated up to 24 hours in the neonatal period. Despite initial reactivity, pulmonary vascular resistance trended toward normal and approached control values. Cavopulmonary assist holds the potential to serve as a bridge to neonatal Fontan repair of single ventricle. Chronic studies are warranted to determine the duration and rate of weaning of support to transition to an unassisted univentricular Fontan circulation.

  20. Understanding Thiel embalming in pig kidneys to develop a new circulation model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wouter Willaert

    Full Text Available The quality of tissue preservation in Thiel embalmed bodies varies. Research on the administered embalming volume and its vascular distribution may elucidate one of the mechanisms of tissue preservation and allow for new applications of Thiel embalming. Vascular embalming with (group 1, n = 15 or without (group 2, n = 20 contrast agent was initiated in pig kidneys. The distribution of Thiel embalming solution in group 1 was visualized using computed tomography. The kidneys in both groups were then immersed in concentrated salt solutions to reduce their weight and volume. Afterwards, to mimic a lifelike circulation in the vessels, group 2 underwent pump-driven reperfusion for 120 minutes with either paraffinum perliquidum or diluted polyethylene glycol. The circulation was imaged with computed tomography. All of the kidneys were adequately preserved. The embalming solution spread diffusely in the kidney, but fluid accumulation was present. Subsequent immersion in concentrated salt solutions reduced weight (P < 0.01 and volume (P < 0.01. Reperfusion for 120 minutes was established in group 2. Paraffinum perliquidum filled both major vessels and renal tissue, whereas diluted polyethylene glycol spread widely in the kidney. There were no increases in weight (P = 0.26 and volume (P = 0.79; and pressure further decreased (P = 0.032 after more than 60 minutes of reperfusion with paraffinum perliquidum, whereas there were increases in weight (P = 0.005, volume (P = 0.032 and pressure (P < 0.0001 after reperfusion with diluted polyethylene glycol. Arterial embalming of kidneys results in successful preservation due to complete parenchymatous spreading. More research is needed to determine whether other factors affect embalming quality. Dehydration is an effective method to regain the organs' initial status. Prolonged vascular reperfusion with paraffinum perliquidum can be established in this model without increases in weight, volume and pressure.

  1. Jupiter Thermospheric General Circulation Model (JTGCM): Global Structure and Dynamics Driven by Auroral and Joule Heating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bougher, S. W.; J. Il. Waite, Jr.; Majeed, T.

    2005-01-01

    A growing multispectral database plus recent Galileo descent measurements are being used to construct a self-consistent picture of the Jupiter thermosphere/ionosphere system. The proper characterization of Jupiter s upper atmosphere, embedded ionosphere, and auroral features requires the examination of underlying processes, including the feedbacks of energetics, neutral-ion dynamics, composition, and magnetospheric coupling. A fully 3-D Jupiter Thermospheric General Circulation Model (JTGCM) has been developed and exercised to address global temperatures, three-component neutral winds, and neutral-ion species distributions. The domain of this JTGCM extends from 20-microbar (capturing hydrocarbon cooling) to 1.0 x 10(exp -4) nbar (including aurora/Joule heating processes). The resulting JTGCM has been fully spun-up and integrated for greater than or equal to40 Jupiter rotations. Results from three JTGCM cases incorporating moderate auroral heating, ion drag, and moderate to strong Joule heating processes are presented. The neutral horizontal winds at ionospheric heights vary from 0.5 km/s to 1.2 km/s, atomic hydrogen is transported equatorward, and auroral exospheric temperatures range from approx.1200-1300 K to above 3000 K, depending on the magnitude of Joule heating. The equatorial temperature profiles from the JTGCM are compared with the measured temperature structure from the Galileo AS1 data set. The best fit to the Galileo data implies that the major energy source for maintaining the equatorial temperatures is due to dynamical heating induced by the low-latitude convergence of the high-latitude-driven thermospheric circulation. Overall, the Jupiter thermosphere/ionosphere system is highly variable and is shown to be strongly dependent on magnetospheric coupling which regulates Joule heating.

  2. Quantitative system validation in model driven design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hermanns, Hilger; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Raskin, Jean-Francois

    2010-01-01

    The European STREP project Quasimodo1 develops theory, techniques and tool components for handling quantitative constraints in model-driven development of real-time embedded systems, covering in particular real-time, hybrid and stochastic aspects. This tutorial highlights the advances made...

  3. Validation of On-Orbit Methodology for the Assessment of Cardiac Function and Changes in the Circulating Volume Using Ultrasound and Braslet-M Occlusion Cuffs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Douglas; Sargsyan, Ashot E.; Ebert, Douglas; Duncan, Michael; Bogomolov, Valery V.; Alferova, Irina V.; Matveev, Vladimir P.; Dulchavsky, Scott A.

    2010-01-01

    The objective of this joint U.S. - Russian project was the development and validation of an in-flight methodology to assess a number of cardiac and vascular parameters associated with circulating volume and its manipulation in long-duration space flight. Responses to modified Valsalva and Mueller maneuvers were measured by cardiac and vascular ultrasound (US) before, during, and after temporary volume reduction by means of Braslet-M thigh occlusion cuffs (Russia). Materials and Methods: The study protocol was conducted in 14 sessions on 9 ISS crewmembers, with an average exposure to microgravity of 122 days. Baseline cardiovascular measurements were taken by echocardiography in multiple modes (including tissue Doppler of both ventricles) and femoral and jugular vein imaging on the International Space Station (ISS). The Braslet devices were then applied and measurements were repeated after >10 minutes. The cuffs were then released and the hemodynamic recovery process was monitored. Modified Valsalva and Mueller maneuvers were used throughout the protocol. All US data were acquired by the HDI-5000 ultrasound system aboard the ISS (ATL/Philips, USA) during remotely guided sessions. The study protocol, including the use of Braslet-M for this purpose, was approved by the ISS Human Research Multilateral Review Board (HRMRB). Results: The effects of fluid sequestration on a number of echocardiographic and vascular parameters were readily detectable by in-flight US, as were responses to respiratory maneuvers. The overall volume status assessment methodology appears to be valid and practical, with a decrease in left heart lateral E (tissue Doppler) as one of the most reliable measures. Increase in the femoral vein cross-sectional areas was consistently observed with Braslet application. Other significant differences and trends within the extensive cardiovascular data were also observed. (Decreased - RV and LV preload indices, Cardiac Output, LV E all maneuvers, LV Stroke

  4. On the dynamics of droughts in northeast Brazil - Observations, theory and numerical experiments with a general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moura, A. D.; Shukla, J.

    1981-01-01

    The establishment of a thermally direct local circulation which has its ascending branch at about 10 deg N and its descending branch over northeast Brazil and the adjoining oceanic region is proposed as a possible mechanism for the occurrence of severe droughts over this Brazilian region. The driving for this anomalous circulation is provided by enhanced moist convection due to the effect of warmer sea surface anomalies over the northern tropical Atlantic and cooling associated with colder sea surface temperature anomalies in the southern tropical Atlantic. A simple primitive equation model is used to calculate the frictionally-controlled and thermally-driven circulation due to a prescribed heating function in a resting atmosphere, and a series of numerical experiments are carried out to test the sensitivity of the Goddard Laboratory's model to prescribed sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical Atlantic.

  5. A numerical model of the effects of reactor cooling water on fjord circulation. Part 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, W.

    1976-01-01

    In the search for possible sites for new nuclear power plants in Sweden a site on Braaviken, a narrow fjord, is being considered. A numerical hydrodynamic model has been developed to predict the probable effects of the waste heat disharged into the estuary on the natural estuarine flow. The model employs the basic equations of motion and conservation of salt and heat with appropriate approximations to make predictions. The primary approximation in the model consists of considering the estuary as a channel in which cross channel effects do not explicitly appear. The along channel motion is thus primary determined by the along channel density gradients. With the construction of a bottom intake located at the depth of about 40 meters there will be little noticable effect on the circulation, temperature or salinity fields in the estuary in the summer. However in the winter the bottom intake offers only a partial improvement over a surface intake. During the winter the heated water would cause changes of as much as 50 % in the natural state. The surface intake would cause changes which sometimes are almost twice as big. The problem arises because the 10 deg C heated water creates sizable horizontal density gradients which are sufficient to counteract the weak natural flow

  6. Quasi-steady model for predicting temperature of aqueous foams circulating in geothermal wellbores

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blackwell, B.F.; Ortega, A.

    1983-01-01

    A quasi-steady model has been developed for predicting the temperature profiles of aqueous foams circulating in geothermal wellbores. The model assumes steady one-dimensional incompressible flow in the wellbore; heat transfer by conduction from the geologic formation to the foam is one-dimensional radially and time-dependent. The vertical temperature distribution in the undisturbed geologic formation is assumed to be composed of two linear segments. For constant values of the convective heat-transfer coefficient, a closed-form analytical solution is obtained. It is demonstrated that the Prandtl number of aqueous foams is large (1000 to 5000); hence, a fully developed temperature profile may not exist for representative drilling applications. Existing convective heat-transfer-coefficient solutions are adapted to aqueous foams. The simplified quasi-steady model is successfully compared with a more-sophisticated finite-difference computer code. Sample temperature-profile calculations are presented for representative values of the primary parameters. For a 5000-ft wellbore with a bottom hole temperature of 375{sup 0}F, the maximum foam temperature can be as high as 300{sup 0}F.

  7. Simulations of future climate with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stendel, M.; Schmith, T.; Hesselbjerg Christensen, J.

    2001-01-01

    A coupled atmosphere/ocean general circulation model to study the time-dependent climate response to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases, chlorofluorocarbons and aerosols according to the new IPCC SRES scenarios A2 and B2 has been used. The results of these experiments are compared to an unforced 300-year control experiment. The changes in the last three decades of the scenario simulations (2071-2100) are furthermore compared to the simulation of present-day climate (1961-1990). In accordance with previous experiments we find that greenhouse warming is reduced when aerosol effects are considered. Sulfur emissions, however, are lower than in the IS92a scenario. Consequently, the greenhouse warming effect, which leads to a bigger temperature increase than in the GSDIO experiment can outweigh the aerosol cooling effect. The result shows that there still are serious difficulties and uncertainties in this type of model simulation. Those are partially due to oversimplifications in the model, concerning the radiative properties of aerosols in particular, and therefore the indirect aerosol effect. Another inherent problem, however, is the uncertainty in the scenarios themselves. This is the case for short-lived substances with an inhomogeneous spatial and temporal distribution, such as aerosols. Therefore, on a decadal horizon, changes in the emissions of those substance can exert a significant effect on anthropogenic climate change. (LN)

  8. Dental models made with an intraoral scanner: a validation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuperus, Anne Margreet R; Harms, Marit C; Rangel, Frits A; Bronkhorst, Ewald M; Schols, Jan G J H; Breuning, K Hero

    2012-09-01

    Our objectives were to determine the validity and reproducibility of measurements on stereolithographic models and 3-dimensional digital dental models made with an intraoral scanner. Ten dry human skulls were scanned; from the scans, stereolithographic models and digital models were made. Two observers measured transversal distances, mesiodistal tooth widths, and arch segments on the skulls and the stereolithographic and digital models. All measurements were repeated 4 times. Arch length discrepancy and tooth size discrepancy were calculated. Statistical analysis was performed by using paired t tests. For the measurements on the stereolithographic and digital models, statistically significant differences were found. However, these differences were considered to be clinically insignificant. Digital models had fewer statistically significant differences and generally the smallest duplicate measurement errors compared with the stereolithographic models. Stereolithographic and digital models made with an intraoral scanner are a valid and reproducible method for measuring distances in a dentition. Copyright © 2012 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Tracer simulation using a global general circulation model: Results from a midlatitude instantaneous source experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahlman, J.D.; Moxim, W.J.

    1978-01-01

    An 11-level general circulation model with seasonal variation is used to perform an experiment on the dispersion of passive tracers. Specially constructed time-dependent winds from this model are used as input to a separate tracer model. The methodologies employed to construct the tracer model are described.The experiment presented is the evolution of a hypothetical instantaneous source of tracer on 1 Janaury with maximum initial concentration at 65 mb, 36 0 N, 180 0 E. The tracer is assumed to have no sources or sinks in the stratosphere, but is subject to removal processes in the lower troposphere.The experimental results reveal a number of similarities to observed tracer behavior, including the average poleward-downward slope of mixing ratio isopleths, strong tracer gradients across the tropopause, intrusion of tracer into the Southern Hemisphere lower stratosphere, and the long-term interhemispheric exchange rate. The model residence times show behavior intermediate to those exhibited for particulate radioactive debris and gaseous C 14 O 2 . This suggests that caution should be employed when either radioactive debris or C 14 O 2 data are used to develop empirical models for prediction of gaseous tracers which are efficiently removed in the troposphere.In this experiment, the tracer mixing ratio and potential vorticity evolve to very high correlations. Mechanisms for this correlation are discussed. The zonal mean tracer balances exhibit complex behavior among the various transport terms. At early stages, the tracer evolution is dominated by eddy effects. Later, a very large degree of self-cancellation between mean cell and eddy effects is observed. During seasonal transitions, however, this self-cancellation diminishes markedly, leading to significant changes in the zonal mean tracer distribution. A possible theoretical explanation is presented

  10. Numerical Modeling of Reactive Multiphase Flow for FCC and Hot Gas Desulfurization Circulating Fluidized Beds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, Aubrey L. [WSU Research Corporation, Morgantown, WV (USA)

    2005-07-01

    This work was carried out to understand the behavior of the solid and gas phases in a CFB riser. Only the riser is modeled as a straight pipe. A model with linear algebraic approximation to solids viscosity of the form, {musubs} = 5.34{epsisubs}, ({espisubs} is the solids volume fraction) with an appropriate boundary condition at the wall obtained by approximate momentum balance solution at the wall to acount for the solids recirculation is tested against experimental results. The work done was to predict the flow patterns in the CFB risers from available experimental data, including data from a 7.5-cm-ID CFB riser at the Illinois Institute of Technology and data from a 20.0-cm-ID CFB riser at the Particulate Solid Research, Inc., facility. This research aims at modeling the removal of hydrogen sulfide from hot coal gas using zinc oxide as the sorbent in a circulating fluidized bed and in the process indentifying the parameters that affect the performance of the sulfidation reactor. Two different gas-solid reaction models, the unreacted shrinking core (USC) and the grain model were applied to take into account chemical reaction resistances. Also two different approaches were used to affect the hydrodynamics of the process streams. The first model takes into account the effect of micro-scale particle clustering by adjusting the gas-particle drag law and the second one assumes a turbulent core with pseudo-steady state boundary condition at the wall. A comparison is made with experimental results.

  11. Sensitivity experiments with an adaptation model of circulation of western tropical Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Bahulayan, N.; Shaji, C.; Rao, A.D.; Dube, S.K.

    circulation at 10 m depth is controlled by both wind stress and sea surface topography. Circulation at 50 m depth is mainly controlled by thermohaline forcing and sea surface topography. The current speed in the western tropical Indian Ocean is of the order...

  12. A global mean dynamic topography and ocean circulation estimation using a preliminary GOCE gravity model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Per; Bingham, R.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2011-01-01

    The Gravity and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) satellite mission measures Earth’s gravity field with an unprecedented accuracy at short spatial scales. In doing so, it promises to significantly advance our ability to determine the ocean’s general circulation. In this study, an ini...

  13. Ensuring the Validity of the Micro Foundation in DSGE Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Martin Møller

    & Primiceri (American Economic Review, forth- coming) and Fernández-Villaverde & Rubio-Ramírez (Review of Economic Studies, 2007) do not satisfy these sufficient conditions, or any other known set of conditions ensuring finite values for the objective functions. Thus, the validity of the micro foundation......The presence of i) stochastic trends, ii) deterministic trends, and/or iii) stochastic volatil- ity in DSGE models may imply that the agents' objective functions attain infinite values. We say that such models do not have a valid micro foundation. The paper derives sufficient condi- tions which...... ensure that the objective functions of the households and the firms are finite even when various trends and stochastic volatility are included in a standard DSGE model. Based on these conditions we test the validity of the micro foundation in six DSGE models from the literature. The models of Justiniano...

  14. Numerical 3D models support two distinct hydrothermal circulation systems at fast spreading ridges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasenclever, Jörg; Theissen-Krah, Sonja; Rüpke, Lars

    2013-04-01

    We present 3D numerical calculations of hydrothermal fluid flow at fast spreading ridges. The setup of the 3D models is based our previous 2D studies, in which we have coupled numerical models for crustal accretion and hydrothermal fluid flow. One result of these calculations is a crustal permeability field that leads to a thermal structure in the crust that matches seismic tomography data of the East Pacific Rise (EPR). The 1000°C isotherm obtained from the 2D results is now used as the lower boundary of the 3D model domain, while the upper boundary is a smoothed bathymetry of the EPR. The same permeability field as in the 2D models is used, with the highest permeability at the ridge axis and a decrease with both depth and distance to the ridge. Permeability is also reduced linearly between 600 and 1000°C. Using a newly developed parallel finite element code written in Matlab that solves for thermal evolution, fluid pressure and Darcy flow, we simulate the flow patterns of hydrothermal circulation in a segment of 5000m along-axis, 10000m across-axis and up to 5000m depth. We observe two distinct hydrothermal circulation systems: An on-axis system forming a series of vents with a spacing ranging from 100 to 500m that is recharged by nearby (100-200m) downflows on both sides of the ridge axis. Simultaneously a second system with much broader extensions both laterally and vertically exists off-axis. It is recharged by fluids intruding between 1500m to 5000m off-axis and sampling both upper and lower crust. These fluids are channeled in the deepest and hottest regions with high permeability and migrate up-slope following the 600°C isotherm until reaching the edge of the melt lens. Depending on the width of the melt lens these off-axis fluids either merge with the on-axis hydrothermal system or form separate vents. We observe separate off-axis vent fields if the magma lens half-width exceeds 1000m and confluence of both systems for half-widths smaller than 500m. For

  15. Experiments for foam model development and validation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bourdon, Christopher Jay; Cote, Raymond O.; Moffat, Harry K.; Grillet, Anne Mary; Mahoney, James F. (Honeywell Federal Manufacturing and Technologies, Kansas City Plant, Kansas City, MO); Russick, Edward Mark; Adolf, Douglas Brian; Rao, Rekha Ranjana; Thompson, Kyle Richard; Kraynik, Andrew Michael; Castaneda, Jaime N.; Brotherton, Christopher M.; Mondy, Lisa Ann; Gorby, Allen D.

    2008-09-01

    A series of experiments has been performed to allow observation of the foaming process and the collection of temperature, rise rate, and microstructural data. Microfocus video is used in conjunction with particle image velocimetry (PIV) to elucidate the boundary condition at the wall. Rheology, reaction kinetics and density measurements complement the flow visualization. X-ray computed tomography (CT) is used to examine the cured foams to determine density gradients. These data provide input to a continuum level finite element model of the blowing process.

  16. Application of Scaling-Law and CFD Modeling to Hydrodynamics of Circulating Biomass Fluidized Bed Gasifier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mazda Biglari

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Two modeling approaches, the scaling-law and CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics approaches, are presented in this paper. To save on experimental cost of the pilot plant, the scaling-law approach as a low-computational-cost method was adopted and a small scale column operating under ambient temperature and pressure was built. A series of laboratory tests and computer simulations were carried out to evaluate the hydrodynamic characteristics of a pilot fluidized-bed biomass gasifier. In the small scale column solids were fluidized. The pressure and other hydrodynamic properties were monitored for the validation of the scaling-law application. In addition to the scaling-law modeling method, the CFD approach was presented to simulate the gas-particle system in the small column. 2D CFD models were developed to simulate the hydrodynamic regime. The simulation results were validated with the experimental data from the small column. It was proved that the CFD model was able to accurately predict the hydrodynamics of the small column. The outcomes of this research present both the scaling law with the lower computational cost and the CFD modeling as a more robust method to suit various needs for the design of fluidized-bed gasifiers.

  17. Use of Cs-137 for the calibration of the circulation model of Lithuanian coastal waters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davuliene, L.; Trinkunas, G.; Remeikis, V.; Valkunas, L.; Dick, S.

    2002-01-01

    It is well established that radioactive contamination of waters and sediments in the Lithuanian coastal area of the Baltic Sea is distributed unevenly. To describe the distribution of the radionuclides in waters of the Lithuanian coastal area of the Baltic Sea, the model based on the operational circulation model of the Bundesamt fuer Seeschffahrt und Hydrographie (BSH) for the North and Baltic seas was developed. The area under consideration contains both the Lithuanian coast of the Baltic Sea as well as the Curonian Gulf of the fresh water. The interplay between the salt and fresh water flows via the Kaipeda strait has impact on the distribution of radionuclides. For instance, Cs-137 is a typical radionuclide demonstrating this effect. It is experimentally well established that this radionuclide in the salt water is mainly in the dissolved form (about 90%) and just its minor part is concentrated in the suspended matter (about 10%). In fresh water the dissolved/suspended matter ratio for Cs-137 is totally opposite. Therefore, Cs-137 can be considered as the tracer following the fresh and salt water mixing. With samples of the radionuclide concentration in the sea area under consideration at hand, Cs-137 is used to normalize the tracer concentration simulated by the developed circulation model. The model was based on the grade of 1 nautic mile (nm), while the boundary conditions were taken from the more extended BSH model on the 6 nm grade. In order to understand the sensitivity of this local model to the initial conditions, the artificial conditions taken from the more general and coarse model were used. It has been obtained that the effect of the initial conditions is lost within 2-3 weeks. This result is independent of the coarse grain of the grade as calculations carried out on 1 nm and 0.5 nm grades show. The model was adopted for the PC Pentium III, and calculations of the salinity distribution depending on the meteorological conditions were carried out. Real

  18. Finite element model validation of bridge based on structural health monitoring—Part II: Uncertainty propagation and model validation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaosong Lin

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Because of uncertainties involved in modeling, construction, and measurement systems, the assessment of the FE model validation must be conducted based on stochastic measurements to provide designers with confidence for further applications. In this study, based on the updated model using response surface methodology, a practical model validation methodology via uncertainty propagation is presented. Several criteria of testing/analysis correlation are introduced, and the sources of model and testing uncertainties are also discussed. After that, Monte Carlo stochastic finite element (FE method is employed to perform the uncertainty quantification and propagation. The proposed methodology is illustrated with the examination of the validity of a large-span prestressed concrete continuous rigid frame bridge monitored under operational conditions. It can be concluded that the calculated frequencies and vibration modes of the updated FE model of Xiabaishi Bridge are consistent with the measured ones. The relative errors of each frequency are all less than 3.7%. Meanwhile, the overlap ratio indexes of each frequency are all more than 75%; The MAC values of each calculated vibration frequency are all more than 90%. The model of Xiabaishi Bridge is valid in the whole operation space including experimental design space, and its confidence level is upper than 95%. The validated FE model of Xiabaishi Bridge can reflect the current condition of Xiabaishi Bridge, and also can be used as basis of bridge health monitoring, damage identification and safety assessment.

  19. Data Assimilation within the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Modeling Framework for Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Butler, T.

    2012-07-01

    Accurate, real-time forecasting of coastal inundation due to hurricanes and tropical storms is a challenging computational problem requiring high-fidelity forward models of currents and water levels driven by hurricane-force winds. Despite best efforts in computational modeling there will always be uncertainty in storm surge forecasts. In recent years, there has been significant instrumentation located along the coastal United States for the purpose of collecting data—specifically wind, water levels, and wave heights—during these extreme events. This type of data, if available in real time, could be used in a data assimilation framework to improve hurricane storm surge forecasts. In this paper a data assimilation methodology for storm surge forecasting based on the use of ensemble Kalman filters and the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) storm surge model is described. The singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter has been shown to be effective at producing accurate results for ocean models using small ensemble sizes initialized by an empirical orthogonal function analysis. The SEIK filter is applied to the ADCIRC model to improve storm surge forecasting, particularly in capturing maximum water levels (high water marks) and the timing of the surge. Two test cases of data obtained from hindcast studies of Hurricanes Ike and Katrina are presented. It is shown that a modified SEIK filter with an inflation factor improves the accuracy of coarse-resolution forecasts of storm surge resulting from hurricanes. Furthermore, the SEIK filter requires only modest computational resources to obtain more accurate forecasts of storm surge in a constrained time window where forecasters must interact with emergency responders.

  20. Characteristics modeling for supercritical circulating fluidized bed boiler working in oxy-combustion technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balicki Adrian

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Among the technologies which allow to reduce greenhouse gas emission, mainly carbon dioxide, special attention deserves the idea of ‘zeroemission’ technology based on boilers working in oxy-combustion technology. In the paper the results of analyses of the influence of changing two quantities, namely oxygen share in oxidant produced in the air separation unit, and oxygen share in oxidant supplied to the furnace chamber on the selected characteristics of a steam boiler including the degree of exhaust gas recirculation, boiler efficiency and adiabatic flame temperature, was examined. Due to the possibility of the integration of boiler model with carbon dioxide capture, separation and storage installation, the subject of the analysis was also to determine composition of the flue gas at the outlet of a moisture condensation installation. Required calculations were made using a model of a supercritical circulating fluidized bed boiler working in oxy-combustion technology, which was built in a commercial software and in-house codes.

  1. Finding the 'lost years' in green turtles: insights from ocean circulation models and genetic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putman, Nathan F; Naro-Maciel, Eugenia

    2013-10-07

    Organismal movement is an essential component of ecological processes and connectivity among ecosystems. However, estimating connectivity and identifying corridors of movement are challenging in oceanic organisms such as young turtles that disperse into the open sea and remain largely unobserved during a period known as 'the lost years'. Using predictions of transport within an ocean circulation model and data from published genetic analysis, we present to our knowledge, the first basin-scale hypothesis of distribution and connectivity among major rookeries and foraging grounds (FGs) of green turtles (Chelonia mydas) during their 'lost years'. Simulations indicate that transatlantic dispersal is likely to be common and that recurrent connectivity between the southwestern Indian Ocean and the South Atlantic is possible. The predicted distribution of pelagic juvenile turtles suggests that many 'lost years hotspots' are presently unstudied and located outside protected areas. These models, therefore, provide new information on possible dispersal pathways that link nesting beaches with FGs. These pathways may be of exceptional conservation concern owing to their importance for sea turtles during a critical developmental period.

  2. Performance of the general circulation models in simulating temperature and precipitation over Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbasian, Mohammadsadegh; Moghim, Sanaz; Abrishamchi, Ahmad

    2018-03-01

    General Circulation Models (GCMs) are advanced tools for impact assessment and climate change studies. Previous studies show that the performance of the GCMs in simulating climate variables varies significantly over different regions. This study intends to evaluate the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation over Iran. Simulations from 37 GCMs and observations from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) were obtained for the period of 1901-2005. Six measures of performance including mean bias, root mean square error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), linear correlation coefficient (r), Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic (KS), Sen's slope estimator, and the Taylor diagram are used for the evaluation. GCMs are ranked based on each statistic at seasonal and annual time scales. Results show that most GCMs perform reasonably well in simulating the annual and seasonal temperature over Iran. The majority of the GCMs have a poor skill to simulate precipitation, particularly at seasonal scale. Based on the results, the best GCMs to represent temperature and precipitation simulations over Iran are the CMCC-CMS (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change) and the MRI-CGCM3 (Meteorological Research Institute), respectively. The results are valuable for climate and hydrometeorological studies and can help water resources planners and managers to choose the proper GCM based on their criteria.

  3. Atmospheric effects of nuclar war aerosols in general circulation model simulations: Influence of smoke optical properties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, S.L.; Ramaswamy, V.; Covey, C.

    1987-01-01

    A global atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) is modified to include radiative transfer parameterizations for the absorption and scattering of solar radiation and the absorption of thermal infrared (IR) radiation by smoke aerosols. The solar scattering modifications include a parameterization for diagnosing smoke optical properties as a function of the time- and space-dependent smoke particle radii. The aerosol IR modifications allow for both the ''grey'' absorber approximation and a broadband approximation that resolves the aerosol absorption in four spectral intervals. We examine the sensitivity of some GCM-simulated atmospheric and climatic effects to the optical properties and radiative transfer parameterizations used in studies of massive injections of smoke. Specifically, we test the model response to solar scattering versus nonscattering smoke, variations in prescribed smoke single scattering albedo and IR specific absorption, and interactive versus fixed smoke optical properties. Hypothetical nuclear war created smoke scenarios assume the July injection of 60 or 180 Tg of smoke over portions of the mid-latitude land areas of the northern hemisphere. Atmospheric transport and scavenging of the smoke are included. Nonscattering smoke cases produce roughly 40 Wm/sup -2/ more Earth-atmosphere solar irradiance absorption over the northern hemisphere, when compared to scattering smoke cases having equivalent specific absorption efficiencies. Varying the elemental carbon content of smoke over a plausible range produces a 4 0 --6 0 C change in average mid-latitude land surface temperature, and a variation of about 0.1 in zonally averaged planetary albedo in the northern hemisphere

  4. A parallel domain decomposition algorithm for coastal ocean circulation models based on integer linear programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordi, Antoni; Georgas, Nickitas; Blumberg, Alan

    2017-05-01

    This paper presents a new parallel domain decomposition algorithm based on integer linear programming (ILP), a mathematical optimization method. To minimize the computation time of coastal ocean circulation models, the ILP decomposition algorithm divides the global domain in local domains with balanced work load according to the number of processors and avoids computations over as many as land grid cells as possible. In addition, it maintains the use of logically rectangular local domains and achieves the exact same results as traditional domain decomposition algorithms (such as Cartesian decomposition). However, the ILP decomposition algorithm may not converge to an exact solution for relatively large domains. To overcome this problem, we developed two ILP decomposition formulations. The first one (complete formulation) has no additional restriction, although it is impractical for large global domains. The second one (feasible) imposes local domains with the same dimensions and looks for the feasibility of such decomposition, which allows much larger global domains. Parallel performance of both ILP formulations is compared to a base Cartesian decomposition by simulating two cases with the newly created parallel version of the Stevens Institute of Technology's Estuarine and Coastal Ocean Model (sECOM). Simulations with the ILP formulations run always faster than the ones with the base decomposition, and the complete formulation is better than the feasible one when it is applicable. In addition, parallel efficiency with the ILP decomposition may be greater than one.

  5. [Validation of abdominal wound dehiscence's risk model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez Díaz, Carlos Javier; Rebasa Cladera, Pere; Navarro Soto, Salvador; Hidalgo Rosas, José Manuel; Luna Aufroy, Alexis; Montmany Vioque, Sandra; Corredera Cantarín, Constanza

    2014-02-01

    The aim of this study is to determine the usefulness of the risk model developed by van Ramshorst et al., and a modification of the same, to predict the abdominal wound dehiscence's risk in patients who underwent midline laparotomy incisions. Observational longitudinal retrospective study. Patients who underwent midline laparotomy incisions in the General and Digestive Surgery Department of the Sabadell's Hospital-Parc Taulí's Health and University Corporation-Barcelona, between January 1, 2010 and June 30, 2010. Dependent variable: Abdominal wound dehiscence. Global risk score, preoperative risk score (postoperative variables were excluded), global and preoperative probabilities of developing abdominal wound dehiscence. 176 patients. Patients with abdominal wound dehiscence: 15 (8.5%). The global risk score of abdominal wound dehiscence group (mean: 4.97; IC 95%: 4.15-5.79) was better than the global risk score of No abdominal wound dehiscence group (mean: 3.41; IC 95%: 3.20-3.62). This difference is statistically significant (P<.001). The preoperative risk score of abdominal wound dehiscence group (mean: 3.27; IC 95%: 2.69-3.84) was better than the preoperative risk score of No abdominal wound dehiscence group (mean: 2.77; IC 95%: 2.64-2.89), also a statistically significant difference (P<.05). The global risk score (area under the ROC curve: 0.79) has better accuracy than the preoperative risk score (area under the ROC curve: 0.64). The risk model developed by van Ramshorst et al. to predict the abdominal wound dehiscence's risk in the preoperative phase has a limited usefulness. Additional refinements in the preoperative risk score are needed to improve its accuracy. Copyright © 2012 AEC. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  6. Process-oriented tests for validation of baroclinic shallow water models: The lock-exchange problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolar, R. L.; Kibbey, T. C. G.; Szpilka, C. M.; Dresback, K. M.; Tromble, E. M.; Toohey, I. P.; Hoggan, J. L.; Atkinson, J. H.

    A first step often taken to validate prognostic baroclinic codes is a series of process-oriented tests, as those suggested by Haidvogel and Beckmann [Haidvogel, D., Beckmann, A., 1999. Numerical Ocean Circulation Modeling. Imperial College Press, London], among others. One of these tests is the so-called "lock-exchange" test or "dam break" problem, wherein water of different densities is separated by a vertical barrier, which is removed at time zero. Validation against these tests has primarily consisted of comparing the propagation speed of the wave front, as predicted by various theoretical and experimental results, to model output. In addition, inter-model comparisons of the lock-exchange test have been used to validate codes. Herein, we present a high resolution data set, taken from a laboratory-scale model, for direct and quantitative comparison of experimental and numerical results throughout the domain, not just the wave front. Data is captured every 0.2 s using high resolution digital photography, with salt concentration extracted by comparing pixel intensity of the dyed fluid against calibration standards. Two scenarios are discussed in this paper, symmetric and asymmetric mixing, depending on the proportion of dense/light water (17.5 ppt/0.0 ppt) in the experiment; the Boussinesq approximation applies to both. Front speeds, cast in terms of the dimensionless Froude number, show excellent agreement with literature-reported values. Data are also used to quantify the degree of mixing, as measured by the front thickness, which also provides an error band on the front speed. Finally, experimental results are used to validate baroclinic enhancements to the barotropic shallow water ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model, including the effect of the vertical mixing scheme on simulation results. Based on salinity data, the model provides an average root-mean-square (rms) error of 3.43 ppt for the symmetric case and 3.74 ppt for the asymmetric case, most of which can

  7. Validation of a two-fluid model used for the simulation of dense fluidized beds; Validation d`un modele a deux fluides applique a la simulation des lits fluidises denses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boelle, A.

    1997-02-17

    A two-fluid model applied to the simulation of gas-solid dense fluidized beds is validated on micro scale and on macro scale. Phase coupling is carried out in the momentum and energy transport equation of both phases. The modeling is built on the kinetic theory of granular media in which the gas action has been taken into account in order to get correct expressions of transport coefficients. A description of hydrodynamic interactions between particles in high Stokes number flow is also incorporated in the model. The micro scale validation uses Lagrangian numerical simulations viewed as numerical experiments. The first validation case refers to a gas particle simple shear flow. It allows to validate the competition between two dissipation mechanisms: drag and particle collisions. The second validation case is concerted with sedimenting particles in high Stokes number flow. It allows to validate our approach of hydrodynamic interactions. This last case had led us to develop an original Lagrangian simulation with a two-way coupling between the fluid and the particles. The macro scale validation uses the results of Eulerian simulations of dense fluidized bed. Bed height, particles circulation and spontaneous created bubbles characteristics are studied and compared to experimental measurement, both looking at physical and numerical parameters. (author) 159 refs.

  8. Asymmetric response of the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation to freshwater anomalies in a strongly-eddying global ocean model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brunnabend, Sandra Esther|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/371740878; Dijkstra, Henk A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073504467

    2017-01-01

    The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) responds sensitively to density changes in regions of deepwater formation. In this paper, we investigate the nonlinear response of the AMOC to large amplitude freshwater changes around Greenland using a strongly-eddying global ocean model. Due

  9. Circulation stabilizing therapy and pulmonary high-resolution computed tomography in a porcine brain-dead model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bozovic, G.; Steen, S. van der; Sjoberg, T.; Schaefer-Prokop, C.M.; Verschakelen, J.; Liao, Q.; Hoglund, P.; Siemund, R.; Bjorkman-Burtscher, I.M.

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Currently 80% of donor lungs are not accepted for transplantation, often due to fluid overload. Our aim was to investigate if forced fluid infusion may be replaced by a new pharmacological therapy to stabilize circulation after brain death in an animal model, and to assess therapy

  10. Links between circulation types and precipitation in Central Europe in the observed data and regional climate model simulations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Plavcová, E.; Kyselý, Jan; Štěpánek, Petr

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 34, č. 9 (2014), s. 2885-2898 ISSN 0899-8418 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : precipitation extremes * atmospheric circulation * regional climate models * ENSEMBLES * Central Europe Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.157, year: 2014

  11. High resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for the conterminous USA and Alaska derived from general circulation model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda A. Joyce; David T. Price; Daniel W. McKenney; R. Martin Siltanen; Pia Papadopol; Kevin Lawrence; David P. Coulson

    2011-01-01

    Projections of future climate were selected for four well-established general circulation models (GCM) forced by each of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios, namely A2, A1B, and B1 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Monthly data for the period 1961-2100 were downloaded mainly from the web...

  12. Resampling procedures to validate dendro-auxometric regression models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Regression analysis has a large use in several sectors of forest research. The validation of a dendro-auxometric model is a basic step in the building of the model itself. The more a model resists to attempts of demonstrating its groundlessness, the more its reliability increases. In the last decades many new theories, that quite utilizes the calculation speed of the calculators, have been formulated. Here we show the results obtained by the application of a bootsprap resampling procedure as a validation tool.

  13. On the Use and Validation of Mosaic Heterogeneity in Atmospheric Numerical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosilovich, Michael G.; Atlas, Robert M. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The mosaic land modeling approach allows for the representation of multiple surface types in a single atmospheric general circulation model grid box. Each surface type, collectively called 'tiles' correspond to different sets of surface characteristics (e.g. for grass, crop or forest). Typically, the tile space data is averaged to grid space by weighting the tiles with their fractional cover. While grid space data is routinely evaluated, little attention has been given to the tile space data. The present paper explores uses of the tile space surface data in validation with station observations. The results indicate the limitations that the mosaic heterogeneity parameterization has in reproducing variations observed between stations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains field site.

  14. Predicting the ungauged basin: Model validation and realism assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim evan Emmerik

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of model outcome has not been discussed to a great extent. With this paper we aim to contribute to the discussion on how one can determine the value and validity of a hydrological model developed for an ungauged basin. As in many cases no local, or even regional, data are available, alternative methods should be applied. Using a PUB case study in a genuinely ungauged basin in southern Cambodia, we give several examples of how one can use different types of soft data to improve model design, calibrate and validate the model, and assess the realism of the model output. A rainfall-runoff model was coupled to an irrigation reservoir, allowing the use of additional and unconventional data. The model was mainly forced with remote sensing data, and local knowledge was used to constrain the parameters. Model realism assessment was done using data from surveys. This resulted in a successful reconstruction of the reservoir dynamics, and revealed the different hydrological characteristics of the two topographical classes. This paper does not present a generic approach that can be transferred to other ungauged catchments, but it aims to show how clever model design and alternative data acquisition can result in a valuable hydrological model for an ungauged catchment.

  15. Modeling of urban heat island and its impacts on thermal circulations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Mengmeng; Wang, Tijian; Xie, Min; Zhuang, Bingliang; Li, Shu; Han, Yong; Cheng, Nianliang

    2017-05-01

    Through regulating the land-atmosphere energy balance, urbanization plays an important role in modifying local circulations and cross-border transport of air pollutants. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) metropolitan area in northern China is frequently influenced by complex atmospheric thermal circulations due to its special topography and geographic position. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model combined with remote sensing is used to explore the urbanization impacts on local circulations in the BTH region. The urban heat island (UHI) effect generated around Beijing and Tianjin shows complex interactions with local thermal circulations. Due to the combined effects of UHI and topography, the UHI circulation around Beijing and valley breeze at the southern slopes of Yan Mountain are coupled together to reinforce each other. At the coastal cities, the increased land/sea temperature gradient considerably accelerates the sea breeze along Bohai Bay and moves the sea breeze front further inland to reach as far as Beijing. This study may lay a foundation for the better understanding of air pollutant dispersion on complex terrain.

  16. Predicting the ungauged basin: model validation and realism assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Emmerik, Tim; Mulder, Gert; Eilander, Dirk; Piet, Marijn; Savenije, Hubert

    2015-01-01

    The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of

  17. Predicting the ungauged basin : Model validation and realism assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Emmerik, Tim; Mulder, Gert; Eilander, Dirk; Piet, Marijn; Savenije, Hubert

    2015-01-01

    The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of

  18. Validation of a multi-objective, predictive urban traffic model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wilmink, I.R.; Haak, P. van den; Woldeab, Z.; Vreeswijk, J.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes the results of the verification and validation of the ecoStrategic Model, which was developed, implemented and tested in the eCoMove project. The model uses real-time and historical traffic information to determine the current, predicted and desired state of traffic in a

  19. Landslide Tsunami Generation Models: Validation and Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watts, P.; Grilli, S. T.; Kirby, J. T.; Fryer, G. J.; Tappin, D. R.

    2002-12-01

    There has been a proliferation of landslide tsunami generation and propagation models in recent time, spurred largely by the 1998 Papua New Guinea event. However, few of these models or techniques have been carefully validated. Moreover, few of these models have proven capable of integrating the best available geological data and interpretations into convincing case studies. The Tsunami Open and Progressive Initial Conditions System (TOPICS) rapidly provides approximate landslide tsunami sources for tsunami propagation models. We present 3D laboratory experiments and 3D Boundary Element Method simulations that validate the tsunami sources given by TOPICS. Geowave is a combination of TOPICS with the fully nonlinear and dispersive Boussinesq model FUNWAVE, which has been the subject of extensive testing and validation over the course of the last decade. Geowave is currently a tsunami community model made available to all tsunami researchers on the web site www.tsunamicommunity.org. We validate Geowave with case studies of the 1946 Unimak, Alaska, the 1994 Skagway, Alaska, and the 1998 Papua New Guinea events. The benefits of Boussinesq wave propagation over traditional shallow water wave models is very apparent for these relatively steep and nonlinear waves. For the first time, a tsunami community model appear sufficiently powerful to reproduce all observations and records with the first numerical simulation. This can only be accomplished by first assembling geological data and interpretations into a reasonable tsunami source.

  20. Child human model development: a hybrid validation approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Forbes, P.A.; Rooij, L. van; Rodarius, C.; Crandall, J.

    2008-01-01

    The current study presents a development and validation approach of a child human body model that will help understand child impact injuries and improve the biofidelity of child anthropometric test devices. Due to the lack of fundamental child biomechanical data needed to fully develop such models a

  1. Validation & verification of a Bayesian network model for aircraft vulnerability

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schietekat, Sunelle

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a methodology for Validation and Verification (V&V) of a Bayesian Network (BN) model for aircraft vulnerability against Infrared (IR) missile threats. The model considers that the aircraft vulnerability depends both on a missile...

  2. The GEM-Mars general circulation model for Mars: Description and evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neary, L.; Daerden, F.

    2018-01-01

    GEM-Mars is a gridpoint-based three-dimensional general circulation model (GCM) of the Mars atmosphere extending from the surface to approximately 150 km based on the GEM (Global Environmental Multiscale) model, part of the operational weather forecasting and data assimilation system for Canada. After the initial modification for Mars, the model has undergone considerable changes. GEM-Mars is now based on GEM 4.2.0 and many physical parameterizations have been added for Mars-specific atmospheric processes and surface-atmosphere exchange. The model simulates interactive carbon dioxide-, dust-, water- and atmospheric chemistry cycles. Dust and water ice clouds are radiatively active. Size distributed dust is lifted by saltation and dust devils. The model includes 16 chemical species (CO2, Argon, N2, O2, CO, H2O, CH4, O3, O(1D), O, H, H2, OH, HO2, H2O2 and O2(a1Δg)) and has fully interactive photochemistry (15 reactions) and gas-phase chemistry (31 reactions). GEM-Mars provides a good simulation of the water and ozone cycles. A variety of other passive tracers can be included for dedicated studies, such as the emission of methane. The model has both a hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic formulation, and together with a flexible grid definition provides a single platform for simulations on a variety of horizontal scales. The model code is fully parallelized using OMP and MPI. Model results are evaluated by comparison to a selection of observations from instruments on the surface and in orbit, relating to atmosphere and surface temperature and pressure, dust and ice content, polar ice mass, polar argon, and global water and ozone vertical columns. GEM-Mars will play an integral part in the analysis and interpretation of data that is received by the NOMAD spectrometer on the ESA-Roskosmos ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter. The present paper provides an overview of the current status and capabilities of the GEM-Mars model and lays the foundations for more in-depth studies in support

  3. Cloud-turbulence interactions: Sensitivity of a general circulation model to closure assumptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brinkop, S.; Roeckner, E.

    1993-01-01

    Several approaches to parameterize the turbulent transport of momentum, heat, water vapour and cloud water for use in a general circulation model (GCM) have been tested in one-dimensional and three-dimensional model simulations. The schemes differ with respect to their closure assumptions (conventional eddy diffusivity model versus turbulent kinetic energy closure) and also regarding their treatment of cloud-turbulence interactions. The basis properties of these parameterizations are discussed first in column simulations of a stratocumulus-topped atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) under a strong subsidence inversion during the KONTROL experiment in the North Sea. It is found that the K-models tend to decouple the cloud layer from the adjacent layers because the turbulent activity is calculated from local variables. The higher-order scheme performs better in this respect because internally generated turbulence can be transported up and down through the action of turbulent diffusion. Thus, the TKE-scheme provides not only a better link between the cloud and the sub-cloud layer but also between the cloud and the inversion as a result of cloud-top entrainment. In the stratocumulus case study, where the cloud is confined by a pronounced subsidence inversion, increased entrainment favours cloud dilution through enhanced evaporation of cloud droplets. In the GCM study, however, additional cloud-top entrainment supports cloud formation because indirect cloud generating processes are promoted through efficient ventilation of the ABL, such as the enhanced moisture supply by surface evaporation and the increased depth of the ABL. As a result, tropical convection is more vigorous, the hydrological cycle is intensified, the whole troposphere becomes warmer and moister in general and the cloudiness in the upper part of the ABL is increased. (orig.)

  4. Arctic storms simulated in atmospheric general circulation models under uniform high, uniform low, and variable resolutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roesler, E. L.; Bosler, P. A.; Taylor, M.

    2016-12-01

    The impact of strong extratropical storms on coastal communities is large, and the extent to which storms will change with a warming Arctic is unknown. Understanding storms in reanalysis and in climate models is important for future predictions. We know that the number of detected Arctic storms in reanalysis is sensitive to grid resolution. To understand Arctic storm sensitivity to resolution in climate models, we describe simulations designed to identify and compare Arctic storms at uniform low resolution (1 degree), at uniform high resolution (1/8 degree), and at variable resolution (1 degree to 1/8 degree). High-resolution simulations resolve more fine-scale structure and extremes, such as storms, in the atmosphere than a uniform low-resolution simulation. However, the computational cost of running a globally uniform high-resolution simulation is often prohibitive. The variable resolution tool in atmospheric general circulation models permits regional high-resolution solutions at a fraction of the computational cost. The storms are identified using the open-source search algorithm, Stride Search. The uniform high-resolution simulation has over 50% more storms than the uniform low-resolution and over 25% more storms than the variable resolution simulations. Storm statistics from each of the simulations is presented and compared with reanalysis. We propose variable resolution as a cost-effective means of investigating physics/dynamics coupling in the Arctic environment. Future work will include comparisons with observed storms to investigate tuning parameters for high resolution models. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000. SAND2016-7402 A

  5. Computer modelling of anterior circulation stroke: Proof of concept in Cerebrovascular Occlusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    THANH G PHAN

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Current literature emphasizes the role of the Circle of Willis (CoW in salvaging ischemic brain tissue but not that of leptomeningeal anastomoses (LA. We developed a computational model of the cerebral circulation to 1 evaluate the roles of the CoW and LA in restoring flow to the superficial compartment of the middle cerebral artery territory and 2 estimate the size of the LA required to maintain flow above the critical ischemic threshold (>30% of baseline under simulated occlusion. Methods: Cerebral vasculature was modelled as a network of junctions connected by cylindrical pipes. The experiments included occlusion of successive distal branches of the intracranial arteries while the diameters of LA were varied. Results: The model showed that the region of reduced flow became progressively smaller as the site of occlusion was moved from the large proximal to the smaller distal arteries. There was no improvement in flow in the MCA territory when the diameters of the inter-territorial LA were varied from 0.0625 mm to 0.5 mm while keeping the intra-territorial LA constant. By contrast, the diameter of the inter-territorial LA needed to be greater than 1.0 mm in order to provide adequate (>30% flow to selected arteries in the occluded MCA territory. Conclusions: The CoW and inter-territorial LA together play important supportive roles in intracranial artery occlusion. Computational modelling provides the ability to experimentally investigate the effect of arterial occlusion on CoW and LA function.

  6. On the development and validation of QSAR models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gramatica, Paola

    2013-01-01

    The fundamental and more critical steps that are necessary for the development and validation of QSAR models are presented in this chapter as best practices in the field. These procedures are discussed in the context of predictive QSAR modelling that is focused on achieving models of the highest statistical quality and with external predictive power. The most important and most used statistical parameters needed to verify the real performances of QSAR models (of both linear regression and classification) are presented. Special emphasis is placed on the validation of models, both internally and externally, as well as on the need to define model applicability domains, which should be done when models are employed for the prediction of new external compounds.

  7. Modeling of Arctic Storms with a Variable High-Resolution General Circulation Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taylor, Mark A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roesler, Erika Louise [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bosler, Peter Andrew [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-08-01

    The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Biological and Environmental Research project, “Water Cycle and Climate Extremes Modeling” is improving our understanding and modeling of regional details of the Earth’s water cycle. Sandia is using high resolution model behavior to investigate storms in the Arctic.

  8. Using a global ocean circulation model to conduct a preliminary risk assessment of oil spills in the Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Zoe; Popova, Katya; Hirschi, Joel; Coward, Andrew; Yool, Andrew; van Gennip, Simon; Anifowose, Babtunde; Harrington-Missin, Liam

    2017-04-01

    Although oil blowouts from deep-water drilling happen very rarely, they can cause catastrophic damage to the environment. Despite such potentially high impacts, relatively little research effort has gone into understanding subsurface oil plumes in the deep ocean. In this study, we demonstrate the significance of this problem and offer potential solutions using a novel approach based on a leading-edge, high-resolution global ocean circulation model. We present examples demonstrating: (a) the importance of ocean circulation in the propagation of oil spills; and (b) likely circulation footprints for oil spills at four key locations in the Atlantic Ocean that exist in different circulation regimes - the shelves of Brazil, the Gulf of Guinea, the Gulf of Mexico and the Faroe-Shetland Channel. In order to quantify the variability at each site on seasonal timescales, interannual timescales and at different depths, we utilize the Modified Hausdorff Distance (MHD), which is a shape-distance metric that measures the similarity between two shapes. The scale of the footprints across the four focus locations varies considerably and is determined by the main circulation features in their vicinity. For example, the hypothetical oil plume can be affected by variations in the speed and location of a particular current (e.g. Brazil Current at the Brazilian shelf site) or be influenced by different currents entirely depending on the release depth, month and year (e.g. Angola Current or Southern Equatorial Current at the Gulf of Guinea site). Overall, our results demonstrate the need to use state of the art global, or basin-scale, ocean circulation models when assessing the environmental impacts of proposed oil drilling activities.

  9. Validation of a urine circulating cathodic antigen cassette test for detection of Schistosoma haematobiumin uMkhanyakude district of South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubaba, O; Chimbari, M J; Soko, W; Manyangadze, T; Mukaratirwa, S

    2018-06-01

    Circulating cathodic antigen (CCA) tests for schistosomiasis are fast and less complicated allowing making them good candidates for routine qualitative screening for schistosomiasis at point of care. The urine-CCA has been evaluated for detection of S. mansoni with promising results. Its specificity and consistency in detecting S. haematobium infection in different endemic regions has been variable. This study validated a rapid urine-CCA cassette test for qualitative detection of S. haematobium infection in an S. haematobium endemic area with low S. mansoni prevalence. Microscopic examination for the standard urine filtration technique was used to validate the commercially available urine-CCA cassette test (rapid medical diagnostics ® ). The validation was done in a sample of primary school pupils (n = 420) aged 10-15 years in schools in the Jozini Municipality, KZN. There was a relationship between infection intensity and a positive urine-CCA test. Using the urine filtration method as the gold standard, the prevalence for S. haematobium was 40%, the accuracy of the CCA kit was 54.8%, sensitivity was 68.1% while the specificity was 45.8%. The positive predictive value was 45.82% while the negative predictive value was 68.05%. Both the urine filtration and the urine-CCA methods detected heavy (≥50 eggs/10 mL urine) and light infections at statistically significant levels. The overall accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the urine-CCA cassette test were low. The urine-CCA cassette test performed much better for heavy infections than low infections (p < 0.05) implying that the kit may not be suitable for low endemic areas. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. A New Model Hierarchy to Understand the Impact of Radiation and Convection on the Extratropical Circulation Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Z.; Shaw, T.

    2017-12-01

    State-of-the-art climate models exhibit a large spread in the magnitude of projected poleward jet shift and Hadley cell expansion in response to warming. Interestingly, some idealized gray radiation models with simplified convective schemes produce an equatorward jet shift in response to warming. In order to understand the impact of radiation and convection on the circulation response and resolve the discrepancies across the model hierarchy, we introduce a new model radiation-convection hierarchy. The hierarchy spans idealized (gray) through sophisticated (RRTMG) radiation, and idealized (Betts-Miller) through sophisticated (eddy-diffusivity mass-flux scheme) convection schemes in the same general circulation model. It is used to systematically explore the impact of radiation and convection on the extratropical circulation response to climate change independent of mean surface temperature and meridional temperature gradient responses. With a gray radiation scheme, the jet stream shift depends on the prescribed stratospheric optical depth, which controls the climatological jet regime. A large optical depth leads to a split jet and an equatorward shift. A small optical depth leads to a poleward shift. The different shifts are connected to the vertical extent of tropical long wave cooling that impacts the subtropical jet and Hadley circulation. In spite of these sensitivities, the storm track position, defined by the meridonal eddy heat flux and moist static energy flux maxima, shifts robustly poleward. In contrast to gray radiation, with a comprehensive radiation scheme, the jet and storm track shift robustly poleward irrespective of radiative assumptions (clear sky versus cloudy sky, ozone versus no ozone). This response is reproduced by adding more spectral bands and including the water vapor feedback in the gray scheme. Dynamical sensitivities to convective assumption are also explored. Overall the new hierarchy highlights the importance of radiative and

  11. Application of blocking diagnosis methods to general circulation models. Part II: model simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barriopedro, D.; Trigo, R.M. [Universidade de Lisboa, CGUL-IDL, Faculdade de Ciencias, Lisbon (Portugal); Garcia-Herrera, R.; Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F. [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Departamento de Fisica de la Tierra II, Facultad de C.C. Fisicas, Madrid (Spain)

    2010-12-15

    A previously defined automatic method is applied to reanalysis and present-day (1950-1989) forced simulations of the ECHO-G model in order to assess its performance in reproducing atmospheric blocking in the Northern Hemisphere. Unlike previous methodologies, critical parameters and thresholds to estimate blocking occurrence in the model are not calibrated with an observed reference, but objectively derived from the simulated climatology. The choice of model dependent parameters allows for an objective definition of blocking and corrects for some intrinsic model bias, the difference between model and observed thresholds providing a measure of systematic errors in the model. The model captures reasonably the main blocking features (location, amplitude, annual cycle and persistence) found in observations, but reveals a relative southward shift of Eurasian blocks and an overall underestimation of blocking activity, especially over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Blocking underestimation mostly arises from the model inability to generate long persistent blocks with the observed frequency. This error is mainly attributed to a bias in the basic state. The bias pattern consists of excessive zonal winds over the Euro-Atlantic sector and a southward shift at the exit zone of the jet stream extending into in the Eurasian continent, that are more prominent in cold and warm seasons and account for much of Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian blocking errors, respectively. It is shown that other widely used blocking indices or empirical observational thresholds may not give a proper account of the lack of realism in the model as compared with the proposed method. This suggests that in addition to blocking changes that could be ascribed to natural variability processes or climate change signals in the simulated climate, attention should be paid to significant departures in the diagnosis of phenomena that can also arise from an inappropriate adaptation of detection methods to the climate of the

  12. MODELING THE AMBIENT CONDITION EFFECTS OF AN AIR-COOLED NATURAL CIRCULATION SYSTEM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Rui; Lisowski, Darius D.; Bucknor, Matthew; Kraus, Adam R.; Lv, Qiuping

    2017-07-02

    empirical model was also implemented in the computational models of the NSTF using both RELAP5-3D and STARCCM+ codes. Accounting for the effects of ambient conditions, simulations from both codes predicted the natural circulation flow rates very well.

  13. Aerosol indirect effects -- general circulation model intercomparison and evaluation with satellite data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quaas, Johannes; Ming, Yi; Menon, Surabi; Takemura, Toshihiko; Wang, Minghuai; Penner, Joyce E.; Gettelman, Andrew; Lohmann, Ulrike; Bellouin, Nicolas; Boucher, Olivier; Sayer, Andrew M.; Thomas, Gareth E.; McComiskey, Allison; Feingold, Graham; Hoose, Corinna; Kristjansson, Jon Egill; Liu, Xiaohong; Balkanski, Yves; Donner, Leo J.; Ginoux, Paul A.; Stier, Philip; Feichter, Johann; Sednev, Igor; Bauer, Susanne E.; Koch, Dorothy; Grainger, Roy G.; Kirkevag, Alf; Iversen, Trond; Seland, Oyvind; Easter, Richard; Ghan, Steven J.; Rasch, Philip J.; Morrison, Hugh; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Iacono, Michael J.; Kinne, Stefan; Schulz, Michael

    2009-04-10

    Aerosol indirect effects continue to constitute one of the most important uncertainties for anthropogenic climate perturbations. Within the international AEROCOM initiative, the representation of aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions in ten different general circulation models (GCMs) is evaluated using three satellite datasets. The focus is on stratiform liquid water clouds since most GCMs do not include ice nucleation effects, and none of the model explicitly parameterizes aerosol effects on convective clouds. We compute statistical relationships between aerosol optical depth (Ta) and various cloud and radiation quantities in a manner that is consistent between the models and the satellite data. It is found that the model-simulated influence of aerosols on cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) compares relatively well to the satellite data at least over the ocean. The relationship between Ta and liquid water path is simulated much too strongly by the models. It is shown that this is partly related to the representation of the second aerosol indirect effect in terms of autoconversion. A positive relationship between total cloud fraction (fcld) and Ta as found in the satellite data is simulated by the majority of the models, albeit less strongly than that in the satellite data in most of them. In a discussion of the hypotheses proposed in the literature to explain the satellite-derived strong fcld - Ta relationship, our results indicate that none can be identified as unique explanation. Relationships similar to the ones found in satellite data between Ta and cloud top temperature or outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) are simulated by only a few GCMs. The GCMs that simulate a negative OLR - Ta relationship show a strong positive correlation between Ta and fcld The short-wave total aerosol radiative forcing as simulated by the GCMs is strongly influenced by the simulated anthropogenic fraction of Ta, and parameterisation assumptions such as a lower bound on Nd

  14. Atmospheric Angular Momentum Fluctuations During 1979-1988 Simulated by Global Circulation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hide, R.; Dickey, J. O.; Marcus, S. L.; Rosen, R. D.; Salstein, D. A.

    1997-01-01

    Changes in major global dynamical phenomena in the Earth's atmosphere are manifested in the time series of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), as determined directly from meteorological observations and indirectly from geodetic observations of small fluctuations in the rotation of the solid Earth which are proportional to length of day. AAM fluctuations are intimately linked with energetic processes throughout the whole atmosphere and also with the stresses at the Earth's surface produced largely by turbulent momentum transport in the oceanic and continental boundary layers and by the action of normal pressure forces on orographic features. A stringent test of any numerical global circulation model (GCM) is therefore provided by a quantitative assessment of its ability to represent AAM fluctuations on all relevant timescales, ranging from months to several years. From monthly data provided by the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) of the World Climate Research Programme, we have investigated seasonal and interannual fluctuations and the decadal mean in the axial component of AAM in 23 AMIP GCMs over the period 1979-1 988. The decadal means are generally well simulated, with the model median value (1.58 x 10(exp 26) kg sq m/s) being only 3.5% larger than the observed mean and with 10 of the models being within 5% of the observed. The seasonal cycle is well reproduced, with the median amplitude of the models' seasonal standard deviations being only 2.4% larger than observed. Half the seasonal amplitudes lie within 15% of the observed, and the median correlation found between the observed and model seasonal cycles is 0.95. The dominant seasonal error is an under- estimation of AAM during northern hemisphere winter associated with errors in the position of subtropical jets. Less robust are the modeled interannual variations, although the median correlation of 0.61 between model simulations and observed AAM is statistically significant. The two El Nino

  15. Analytical and Clinical Validation of a Digital Sequencing Panel for Quantitative, Highly Accurate Evaluation of Cell-Free Circulating Tumor DNA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanman, Richard B; Mortimer, Stefanie A; Zill, Oliver A; Sebisanovic, Dragan; Lopez, Rene; Blau, Sibel; Collisson, Eric A; Divers, Stephen G; Hoon, Dave S B; Kopetz, E Scott; Lee, Jeeyun; Nikolinakos, Petros G; Baca, Arthur M; Kermani, Bahram G; Eltoukhy, Helmy; Talasaz, AmirAli

    2015-01-01

    Next-generation sequencing of cell-free circulating solid tumor DNA addresses two challenges in contemporary cancer care. First this method of massively parallel and deep sequencing enables assessment of a comprehensive panel of genomic targets from a single sample, and second, it obviates the need for repeat invasive tissue biopsies. Digital Sequencing™ is a novel method for high-quality sequencing of circulating tumor DNA simultaneously across a comprehensive panel of over 50 cancer-related genes with a simple blood test. Here we report the analytic and clinical validation of the gene panel. Analytic sensitivity down to 0.1% mutant allele fraction is demonstrated via serial dilution studies of known samples. Near-perfect analytic specificity (> 99.9999%) enables complete coverage of many genes without the false positives typically seen with traditional sequencing assays at mutant allele frequencies or fractions below 5%. We compared digital sequencing of plasma-derived cell-free DNA to tissue-based sequencing on 165 consecutive matched samples from five outside centers in patients with stage III-IV solid tumor cancers. Clinical sensitivity of plasma-derived NGS was 85.0%, comparable to 80.7% sensitivity for tissue. The assay success rate on 1,000 consecutive samples in clinical practice was 99.8%. Digital sequencing of plasma-derived DNA is indicated in advanced cancer patients to prevent repeated invasive biopsies when the initial biopsy is inadequate, unobtainable for genomic testing, or uninformative, or when the patient's cancer has progressed despite treatment. Its clinical utility is derived from reduction in the costs, complications and delays associated with invasive tissue biopsies for genomic testing.

  16. Experimental and Analytical Modeling of Natural Circulation and Forced Circulation BWRs : Thermal-Hydraulic, Core-Wide, and Regional Stability Phenomena

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Furuya, M.

    2006-01-01

    Currently, 434 nuclear power plants are in operation worldwide. 21% of them are known as Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs). These BWRs have pumps that cool their reactor cores (the forced circulation BWRs). In the design of new BWRs, ways to cool the core by a natural circulation flow, without pumps,

  17. Conditioning model output statistics of regional climate model precipitation on circulation patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Wetterhall

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Dynamical downscaling of Global Climate Models (GCMs through regional climate models (RCMs potentially improves the usability of the output for hydrological impact studies. However, a further downscaling or interpolation of precipitation from RCMs is often needed to match the precipitation characteristics at the local scale. This study analysed three Model Output Statistics (MOS techniques to adjust RCM precipitation; (1 a simple direct method (DM, (2 quantile-quantile mapping (QM and (3 a distribution-based scaling (DBS approach. The modelled precipitation was daily means from 16 RCMs driven by ERA40 reanalysis data over the 1961–2000 provided by the ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts project over a small catchment located in the Midlands, UK. All methods were conditioned on the entire time series, separate months and using an objective classification of Lamb's weather types. The performance of the MOS techniques were assessed regarding temporal and spatial characteristics of the precipitation fields, as well as modelled runoff using the HBV rainfall-runoff model. The results indicate that the DBS conditioned on classification patterns performed better than the other methods, however an ensemble approach in terms of both climate models and downscaling methods is recommended to account for uncertainties in the MOS methods.

  18. Reproduction of World Ocean Circulation by the CORE-II Scenario with the Models INMOM and INMIO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volodin, E. M.; Gusev, A. V.; Diansky, N. A.; Ibrayev, R. A.; Ushakov, K. V.

    2018-01-01

    The results of simulations performed by the CORE-II scenario using the two Russian OGCMs, INMOM and INMIO, are presented. The models use different coordinate systems in the basic set of primitive equations and different numerical techniques. Both models are used as oceanic components of the INM RAS coupled models. Simulations have shown that reproducing ocean circulation using both models agrees with observations and simulations by other models. In general, the INMOM slightly underestimates the meridional heat transport in the ocean when compared to the INMIO model and climatic estimations. However, the INMIO yields a higher bias in temperature than the INMOM.

  19. Atmospheric radiation measurement: A program for improving radiative forcing and feedback in general circulation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patrinos, A.A.; Renne, D.S.; Stokes, G.M.; Ellingson, R.G.

    1991-01-01

    The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program is a key element of the Department of Energy's (DOE's) global change research strategy. ARM represents a long-term commitment to conduct comprehensive studies of the spectral atmospheric radiative energy balance profile for a wide range of cloud conditions and surface types, and to develop the knowledge necessary to improve parameterizations of radiative processes under various cloud regimes for use in general circulation models (GCMs) and related models. The importance of the ARM program is a apparent from the results of model assessments of the impact on global climate change. Recent studies suggest that radiatively active trace gas emissions caused by human activity can lead to a global warming of 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius and to important changes in water availability during the next century (Cess, et al. 1989). These broad-scale changes can be even more significant at regional levels, where large shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns are shown to occur. However, these analyses also indicate that considerable uncertainty exists in these estimates, with the manner in which cloud radiative processes are parameterized among the most significant uncertainty. Thus, although the findings have significant policy implications in assessment of global and regional climate change, their uncertainties greatly influence the policy debate. ARM's highly focused observational and analytical research is intended to accelerate improvements and reduce key uncertainties associated with the way in which GCMs treat cloud cover and cloud characteristics and the resulting radiative forcing. This paper summarizes the scientific context for ARM, ARM's experimental approach, and recent activities within the ARM program

  20. Modelling extreme dry spells in the Mediterranean region in connection with atmospheric circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tramblay, Yves; Hertig, Elke

    2018-04-01

    Long droughts periods can affect the Mediterranean region during the winter season, when most of annual precipitation occurs, and consequently have strong impacts on agriculture, groundwater levels and water resources. The goal of this study is to model annual maximum dry spells lengths (AMDSL) that occur during the extended winter season (October to April). The spatial patterns of extreme dry spells and their relationships with large-scale atmospheric circulation were first investigated. Then, AMDSL were modelled using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions incorporating climatic covariates, to evaluate the dependences of extreme dry spells to synoptic patterns using an analogue approach. The data from a network of 160 rain gauges having daily precipitation measurements between 1960 and 2009 are considered together with the ERA-20C reanalysis of the 20th century to provide atmospheric variables (geopotential heights, humidity, winds). A regional classification of both the occurrence and the duration of AMDSL helped to distinguish three spatially contiguous regions in which the regional distributions were found homogeneous. From composite analysis, significant positive anomalies in geopotential height (Z500) and negative anomalies in zonal wind (U850) and relative and specific humidity (S850, R850) were found to be associated with AMDSL in the three regions and provided the reference to build analogue days. Finally, non-stationary GEV models have been compared, in which the location and scale parameters are related to different atmospheric indices. Results indicates, at the whole Mediterranean scale, that positives anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation index and to a lesser extent the Mediterranean Oscillation index are linked to longer extreme dry spells in the majority of stations. For the three regions identified, the frequency of U850 negative anomalies over North Africa is significantly associated with the magnitude of AMDSL. AMDL are also

  1. Secondary flow structure in a model curved artery: 3D morphology and circulation budget analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulusu, Kartik V.; Plesniak, Michael W.

    2015-11-01

    In this study, we examined the rate of change of circulation within control regions encompassing the large-scale vortical structures associated with secondary flows, i.e. deformed Dean-, Lyne- and Wall-type (D-L-W) vortices at planar cross-sections in a 180° curved artery model (curvature ratio, 1/7). Magnetic resonance velocimetry (MRV) and particle image velocimetry (PIV) experiments were performed independently, under the same physiological inflow conditions (Womersley number, 4.2) and using Newtonian blood-analog fluids. The MRV-technique performed at Stanford University produced phase-averaged, three-dimensional velocity fields. Secondary flow field comparisons of MRV-data to PIV-data at various cross-sectional planes and inflow phases were made. A wavelet-decomposition-based approach was implemented to characterize various secondary flow morphologies. We hypothesize that the persistence and decay of arterial secondary flow vortices is intrinsically related to the influence of the out-of-plane flow, tilting, in-plane convection and diffusion-related factors within the control regions. Evaluation of these factors will elucidate secondary flow structures in arterial hemodynamics. Supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant Number CBET-0828903, and GW Center for Biomimetics and Bioinspired Engineering (COBRE). The MRV data were acquired at Stanford University in collaboration with Christopher Elkins and John Eaton.

  2. Natural Circulation High Pressure Loop Dynamics Around Operating Point, Tests and Modelling With Retran 02

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masriera, N.A; Doval, A.S; Mazufri, C.M

    2000-01-01

    The Natural Circulation High Pressure Loop (CAPCN) reproduces in scale all the one-dimensional thermal-hydraulic phenomena occurring in the primary loop of CAREM-25 reactor.It plays an important role in the qualification process of calculating computer codes.This facility demanded to develop several technological solutions in order to achieve the measuring and control quality required by that process.This engineering and experimental development allowed completing the first stage of dynamic tests during 1998.The trends of recorded data were systematically evaluated in terms of the deviations of main variables in response to different perturbations.By this analysis a group of eight transients was selected, providing a Minimum Representative Set (MRS) of dynamic tests, allowing the evaluation of all dynamic phenomena.Each of these transients was simulated with RETRAN-02, using a spreadsheet to facilitate the consistent elaboration and modification of input files.Comparing measured data and computer simulations, it may be concluded that it is possible to reproduce the dynamic response of all the transients with a level of approximation quite homogeneous and generally acceptable.It is possible to identify the detailed physical models that fit better the dynamic phenomena, and which of the limitations of RETRAN code are more relevant

  3. Hurricane-type vortices in a general circulation model. Pt. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, L.; Botzet, M.; Esch, M.

    1994-01-01

    A very high resolution atmospheric general circulation model, T106-L19, has been used for the simulation of hurricanes in a multi-year numerical experiment. Individual storms as well as their geographical and seasonal distribution agree remarkably well with observations. In spite of the fact that only the thermal and dynamical structure of the storms have been used as criteria of their identification, practically all of them occur in areas where the sea surface temperature is higher or equal to 26 C. There are some variations from year to year in the number of storms in spite of the fact that there are no interannual variations in the SST pattern. It is found that the number of storms in particular areas depend on the intensity of the Hadley-Walker cell. The result is clearly resolution dependant. At lower horizonal resolution, T42, for example, the intensity of the storms is significantly reduced and their overall structure is less realistic, including their vertical form and extention. (orig.)

  4. Carbon dioxide, climate and the deep ocean circulation: Carbon chemistry model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menawat, A.S.

    1992-01-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the role of oceanic carbon chemistry in modulating the atmospheric levels of CO 2 . It is well known that the oceans are the primary sink of the excess carbon pumped into the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial period. The suspended particulate and the dissolved organic matters in the deep ocean play important roles as carriers of carbon and other elements critical to the fate of CO 2 . In addition, the suspended particulate matter provides sites for oxidation-reduction reactions and microbial activities. The problem is of an intricate system with complex chemical, physical and biological processes. This report describes a methodology to describe the interconversions of different forms of the organic and inorganic nutrients, that may be incorporated in the ocean circulation models. Our approach includes the driving force behind the transfers in addition to balancing the elements. Such thermodynamic considerations of describing the imbalance in the chemical potentials is a new and unique feature of our approach

  5. Anelastic Models of Fully-Convective Stars: Differential Rotation, Meridional Circulation and Residual Entropy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sainsbury-Martinez, Felix; Browning, Matthew; Miesch, Mark; Featherstone, Nicholas A.

    2018-01-01

    Low-Mass stars are typically fully convective, and as such their dynamics may differ significantly from sun-like stars. Here we present a series of 3D anelastic HD and MHD simulations of fully convective stars, designed to investigate how the meridional circulation, the differential rotation, and residual entropy are affected by both varying stellar parameters, such as the luminosity or the rotation rate, and by the presence of a magnetic field. We also investigate, more specifically, a theoretical model in which isorotation contours and residual entropy (σ‧ = σ ‑ σ(r)) are intrinsically linked via the thermal wind equation (as proposed in the Solar context by Balbus in 2009). We have selected our simulation parameters in such as way as to span the transition between Solar-like differential rotation (fast equator + slow poles) and ‘anti-Solar’ differential rotation (slow equator + fast poles), as characterised by the convective Rossby number and △Ω. We illustrate the transition from single-celled to multi-celled MC profiles, and from positive to negative latitudinal entropy gradients. We show that an extrapolation involving both TWB and the σ‧/Ω link provides a reasonable estimate for the interior profile of our fully convective stars. Finally, we also present a selection of MHD simulations which exhibit an almost unsuppressed differential rotation profile, with energy balances remaining dominated by kinetic components.

  6. Validation of heat transfer models for gap cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okano, Yukimitsu; Nagae, Takashi; Murase, Michio

    2004-01-01

    For severe accident assessment of a light water reactor, models of heat transfer in a narrow annular gap between overheated core debris and a reactor pressure vessel are important for evaluating vessel integrity and accident management. The authors developed and improved the models of heat transfer. However, validation was not sufficient for applicability of the gap heat flux correlation to the debris cooling in the vessel lower head and applicability of the local boiling heat flux correlations to the high-pressure conditions. Therefore, in this paper, we evaluated the validity of the heat transfer models and correlations by analyses for ALPHA and LAVA experiments where molten aluminum oxide (Al 2 O 3 ) at about 2700 K was poured into the high pressure water pool in a small-scale simulated vessel lower head. In the heating process of the vessel wall, the calculated heating rate and peak temperature agreed well with the measured values, and the validity of the heat transfer models and gap heat flux correlation was confirmed. In the cooling process of the vessel wall, the calculated cooling rate was compared with the measured value, and the validity of the nucleate boiling heat flux correlation was confirmed. The peak temperatures of the vessel wall in ALPHA and LAVA experiments were lower than the temperature at the minimum heat flux point between film boiling and transition boiling, so the minimum heat flux correlation could not be validated. (author)

  7. Analysing and combining atmospheric general circulation model simulations forced by prescribed SST: northern extratropical response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Maynard

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available The ECHAM 3.2 (T21, ECHAM 4 (T30 and LMD (version 6, grid-point resolution with 96 longitudes × 72 latitudes atmospheric general circulation models were integrated through the period 1961 to 1993 forced with the same observed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs as compiled at the Hadley Centre. Three runs were made for each model starting from different initial conditions. The mid-latitude circulation pattern which maximises the covariance between the simulation and the observations, i.e. the most skilful mode, and the one which maximises the covariance amongst the runs, i.e. the most reproducible mode, is calculated as the leading mode of a Singular Value Decomposition (SVD analysis of observed and simulated Sea Level Pressure (SLP and geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500 seasonal anomalies. A common response amongst the different models, having different resolution and parametrization should be considered as a more robust atmospheric response to SST than the same response obtained with only one model. A robust skilful mode is found mainly in December-February (DJF, and in June-August (JJA. In DJF, this mode is close to the SST-forced pattern found by Straus and Shukla (2000 over the North Pacific and North America with a wavy out-of-phase between the NE Pacific and the SE US on the one hand and the NE North America on the other. This pattern evolves in a NAO-like pattern over the North Atlantic and Europe (SLP and in a more N-S tripole on the Atlantic and European sector with an out-of-phase between the middle Europe on the one hand and the northern and southern parts on the other (Z500. There are almost no spatial shifts between either field around North America (just a slight eastward shift of the highest absolute heterogeneous correlations for SLP relative to the Z500 ones. The time evolution of the SST-forced mode is moderatly to strongly related to the ENSO/LNSO events but the spread amongst the ensemble of runs is not systematically related

  8. Interaction between surface wind and ocean circulation in the Carolina Capes in a coupled low-order model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xie, L.; Pietrafesa, L.J.; Raman, S.

    1997-03-18

    Interactions between surface winds and ocean currents over an east-coast continental shelf are studied using a simple mathematical model. The model physics include cross-shelf advection of sea surface temperature (SST) by Ekman drift, upwelling due to Ekman transport divergence, differential heating of the low-level atmosphere by a cross-shelf SST gradient, and the Coriolis effect. Additionally, the effects of diabatic cooling of surface waters due to air-sea heat exchange and of the vertical density stratification on the thickness of the upper ocean Ekman layer are considered. The model results are qualitatively consistent with observed wind-driven coastal ocean circulation and surface wind signatures induced by SST. This simple model also demonstrates that two-way air-sea interaction plays a significant role in the subtidal frequency variability of coastal ocean circulation and mesoscale variability of surface wind fields over coastal waters.

  9. The turbulent viscosity models and their experimental validation; Les modeles de viscosite turbulente et leur validation experimentale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-12-31

    This workshop on turbulent viscosity models and on their experimental validation was organized by the `convection` section of the French society of thermal engineers. From the 9 papers presented during this workshop, 8 deal with the modeling of turbulent flows inside combustion chambers, turbo-machineries or in other energy-related applications, and have been selected for ETDE. (J.S.)

  10. Validity of empirical models of exposure in asphalt paving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burstyn, I; Boffetta, P; Burr, G; Cenni, A; Knecht, U; Sciarra, G; Kromhout, H

    2002-01-01

    Aims: To investigate the validity of empirical models of exposure to bitumen fume and benzo(a)pyrene, developed for a historical cohort study of asphalt paving in Western Europe. Methods: Validity was evaluated using data from the USA, Italy, and Germany not used to develop the original models. Correlation between observed and predicted exposures was examined. Bias and precision were estimated. Results: Models were imprecise. Furthermore, predicted bitumen fume exposures tended to be lower (-70%) than concentrations found during paving in the USA. This apparent bias might be attributed to differences between Western European and USA paving practices. Evaluation of the validity of the benzo(a)pyrene exposure model revealed a similar to expected effect of re-paving and a larger than expected effect of tar use. Overall, benzo(a)pyrene models underestimated exposures by 51%. Conclusions: Possible bias as a result of underestimation of the impact of coal tar on benzo(a)pyrene exposure levels must be explored in sensitivity analysis of the exposure–response relation. Validation of the models, albeit limited, increased our confidence in their applicability to exposure assessment in the historical cohort study of cancer risk among asphalt workers. PMID:12205236

  11. Analytical models approximating individual processes: a validation method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Favier, C; Degallier, N; Menkès, C E

    2010-12-01

    Upscaling population models from fine to coarse resolutions, in space, time and/or level of description, allows the derivation of fast and tractable models based on a thorough knowledge of individual processes. The validity of such approximations is generally tested only on a limited range of parameter sets. A more general validation test, over a range of parameters, is proposed; this would estimate the error induced by the approximation, using the original model's stochastic variability as a reference. This method is illustrated by three examples taken from the field of epidemics transmitted by vectors that bite in a temporally cyclical pattern, that illustrate the use of the method: to estimate if an approximation over- or under-fits the original model; to invalidate an approximation; to rank possible approximations for their qualities. As a result, the application of the validation method to this field emphasizes the need to account for the vectors' biology in epidemic prediction models and to validate these against finer scale models. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Empirical validation data sets for double skin facade models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kalyanova, Olena; Jensen, Rasmus Lund; Heiselberg, Per

    2008-01-01

    During recent years application of double skin facades (DSF) has greatly increased. However, successful application depends heavily on reliable and validated models for simulation of the DSF performance and this in turn requires access to high quality experimental data. Three sets of accurate...... empirical data for validation of DSF modeling with building simulation software were produced within the International Energy Agency (IEA) SHCTask 34 / ECBCS Annex 43. This paper describes the full-scale outdoor experimental test facility, the experimental set-up and the measurements procedure...

  13. Validation of spectral gas radiation models under oxyfuel conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Becher, Johann Valentin

    2013-05-15

    Combustion of hydrocarbon fuels with pure oxygen results in a different flue gas composition than combustion with air. Standard computational-fluid-dynamics (CFD) spectral gas radiation models for air combustion are therefore out of their validity range in oxyfuel combustion. This thesis provides a common spectral basis for the validation of new spectral models. A literature review about fundamental gas radiation theory, spectral modeling and experimental methods provides the reader with a basic understanding of the topic. In the first results section, this thesis validates detailed spectral models with high resolution spectral measurements in a gas cell with the aim of recommending one model as the best benchmark model. In the second results section, spectral measurements from a turbulent natural gas flame - as an example for a technical combustion process - are compared to simulated spectra based on measured gas atmospheres. The third results section compares simplified spectral models to the benchmark model recommended in the first results section and gives a ranking of the proposed models based on their accuracy. A concluding section gives recommendations for the selection and further development of simplified spectral radiation models. Gas cell transmissivity spectra in the spectral range of 2.4 - 5.4 {mu}m of water vapor and carbon dioxide in the temperature range from 727 C to 1500 C and at different concentrations were compared in the first results section at a nominal resolution of 32 cm{sup -1} to line-by-line models from different databases, two statistical-narrow-band models and the exponential-wide-band model. The two statistical-narrow-band models EM2C and RADCAL showed good agreement with a maximal band transmissivity deviation of 3 %. The exponential-wide-band model showed a deviation of 6 %. The new line-by-line database HITEMP2010 had the lowest band transmissivity deviation of 2.2% and was therefore recommended as a reference model for the

  14. MODEL-BASED VALIDATION AND VERIFICATION OF ANOMALIES IN LEGISLATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vjeran Strahonja

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available An anomaly in legislation is absence of completeness, consistency and other desirable properties, caused by different semantic, syntactic or pragmatic reasons. In general, the detection of anomalies in legislation comprises validation and verification. The basic idea of research, as presented in this paper, is modelling legislation by capturing domain knowledge of legislation and specifying it in a generic way by using commonly agreed and understandable modelling concepts of the Unified Modelling Language (UML. Models of legislation enable to understand the system better, support the detection of anomalies and help to improve the quality of legislation by validation and verification. By implementing model-based approach, the object of validation and verification moves from legislation to its model. The business domain of legislation has two distinct aspects: a structural or static aspect (functionality, business data etc., and a behavioural or dynamic part (states, transitions, activities, sequences etc.. Because anomalism can occur on two different levels, on the level of a model, or on the level of legislation itself, a framework for validation and verification of legal regulation and its model is discussed. The presented framework includes some significant types of semantic and syntactic anomalies. Some ideas for assessment of pragmatic anomalies of models were found in the field of software quality metrics. Thus pragmatic features and attributes can be determined that could be relevant for evaluation purposes of models. Based on analogue standards for the evaluation of software, a qualitative and quantitative scale can be applied to determine the value of some feature for a specific model.

  15. Development and implementation of a Variable Infiltration Capacity model of surface hydrology into the General Circulation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lettenmaier, D.P.; Stamm, J.F.; Wood, E.F.

    1993-04-01

    A Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is described for the representation of land surface hydrology in General Circulation Models (GCMs). The VIC model computes runoff as a function of the distribution of soil moisture capacity within a GCM grid cell. The major distinguishing feature of the VIC model relative to the bucket model currently used to represent the land surface in many GCMs is that it parameterizes the nonlinearity of the fraction of precipitation that infiltrates over a large area (hence the production of direct runoff) as a function of spatial average soil moisture storage, and that it models subsurface runoff between storms via a simple recession mechanism. The VIC model was incorporated into the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM at R15 resolution (roughly 4.5 degrees latitude by 7.5 degrees longitude). Ten-year simulations of global climate were produced using the GFDL GCM with both VIC land surface hydrology, and, for comparison purposes, the standard bucket representation. Comparison of the ten year runs using the VIC model with those using bucket hydrology showed that for the VIC run, global average runoff increased, soil moisture decreased, evaporation decreased, land surface temperature increased, and precipitation decreased. As expected, changes in precipitation occurred primarily over the continents, especially in the northern hemisphere. Changes in the surface water balance for Africa, Australia, and South America were much less than for North American and Eurasia. Both VIC and bucket simulations of surface air temperature and precipitation were compared with gridded monthly average observation fields. These comparisons indicated that the VIC hydrology reproduced winter temperatures better, and summer temperatures worse, than the bucket model. The VIC hydrology better represented global precipitation, primarily as a result of partially reducing the upward bias in precipitation associated with the GFDL R15 bucket runs

  16. Testing the 231Pa/230Th paleo-circulation proxy: A data versus 2D model comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lippold, Jorg; Gherardi, Jeanne-Marie; Luo, Yiming

    2011-01-01

    Variations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are believed to have crucially influenced Earth's climate due to its key role in the inter-hemispheric redistribution of heat and carbon. To assess its past strength, the sedimentary 231 Pa/ 230 Th proxy has been developed and improved but also contested due to its sensitivity to other factors beyond ocean circulation. In order to provide a better basis for the understanding of the Atlantic 231 Pa/ 230 Th system, and therefore to shed light on the controversy, we compare new measurements of Holocene sediments from the north Brazilian margin to water column data and the output of a two-dimensional scavenging-circulation model, based on modern circulation patterns and reversible scavenging parameters. We show that sedimentary 231 Pa/ 230 Th data from one specific area of the Atlantic are in very good agreement with model results suggesting that sedimentary 231 Pa/ 230 Th is predominantly driven by the AMOC. Therefore, 231 Pa/ 230 Th represents an appropriate method to reconstruct past AMOC at least qualitatively along the western margin. (authors)

  17. Ventricular Fibrillation Waveform Changes during Controlled Coronary Perfusion Using Extracorporeal Circulation in a Swine Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raúl J Gazmuri

    Full Text Available Several characteristics of the ventricular fibrillation (VF waveform have been found predictive of successful defibrillation and hypothesized to reflect the myocardial energy state. In an open-chest swine model of VF, we modeled "average CPR" using extracorporeal circulation (ECC and assessed the time course of coronary blood flow, myocardial metabolism, and myocardial structure in relation to the amplitude spectral area (AMSA of the VF waveform without artifacts related to chest compression.VF was induced and left untreated for 8 minutes in 16 swine. ECC was then started adjusting its flow to maintain a coronary perfusion pressure of 10 mmHg for 10 minutes. AMSA was calculated in the frequency domain and analyzed continuously with a 2.1 s timeframe and a Tukey window that moved ahead every 0.5 s.AMSA progressively declined during untreated VF. With ECC, AMSA increased from 7.0 ± 1.9 mV·Hz (at minute 8 to 12.8 ± 3.3 mV·Hz (at minute 14 (p < 0.05 without subsequent increase and showing a modest correlation with coronary blood flow of borderline statistical significance (r = 0.489, p = 0.0547. Myocardial energy measurements showed marked reduction in phosphocreatine and moderate reduction in ATP with increases in ADP, AMP, and adenosine along with myocardial lactate, all indicative of ischemia. Yet, ischemia did not resolve during ECC despite a coronary blood flow of ~ 30% of baseline.AMSA increased upon return of coronary blood flow during ECC. However, the maximal level was reached after ~ 6 minutes without further change. The significance of the findings for determining the optimal timing for delivering an electrical shock during resuscitation from VF remains to be further explored.

  18. Validation techniques of agent based modelling for geospatial simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darvishi, M.; Ahmadi, G.

    2014-10-01

    One of the most interesting aspects of modelling and simulation study is to describe the real world phenomena that have specific properties; especially those that are in large scales and have dynamic and complex behaviours. Studying these phenomena in the laboratory is costly and in most cases it is impossible. Therefore, Miniaturization of world phenomena in the framework of a model in order to simulate the real phenomena is a reasonable and scientific approach to understand the world. Agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) is a new modelling method comprising of multiple interacting agent. They have been used in the different areas; for instance, geographic information system (GIS), biology, economics, social science and computer science. The emergence of ABM toolkits in GIS software libraries (e.g. ESRI's ArcGIS, OpenMap, GeoTools, etc) for geospatial modelling is an indication of the growing interest of users to use of special capabilities of ABMS. Since ABMS is inherently similar to human cognition, therefore it could be built easily and applicable to wide range applications than a traditional simulation. But a key challenge about ABMS is difficulty in their validation and verification. Because of frequent emergence patterns, strong dynamics in the system and the complex nature of ABMS, it is hard to validate and verify ABMS by conventional validation methods. Therefore, attempt to find appropriate validation techniques for ABM seems to be necessary. In this paper, after reviewing on Principles and Concepts of ABM for and its applications, the validation techniques and challenges of ABM validation are discussed.

  19. Validation of the newborn larynx modeling with aerodynamical experimental data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicollas, R; Giordano, J; Garrel, R; Medale, M; Caminat, P; Giovanni, A; Ouaknine, M; Triglia, J M

    2009-06-01

    Many authors have studied adult's larynx modelization, but the mechanisms of newborn's voice production have very rarely been investigated. After validating a numerical model with acoustic data, studies were performed on larynges of human fetuses in order to validate this model with aerodynamical experiments. Anatomical measurements were performed and a simplified numerical model was built using Fluent((R)) with the vocal folds in phonatory position. The results obtained are in good agreement with those obtained by laser Doppler velocimetry (LDV) and high-frame rate particle image velocimetry (HFR-PIV), on an experimental bench with excised human fetus larynges. It appears that computing with first cry physiological parameters leads to a model which is close to those obtained in experiments with real organs.

  20. Thermal hydraulic model validation for HOR mixed core fuel management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibcus, H.P.M.; Vries, J.W. de; Leege, P.F.A. de

    1997-01-01

    A thermal-hydraulic core management model has been developed for the Hoger Onderwijsreactor (HOR), a 2 MW pool-type university research reactor. The model was adopted for safety analysis purposes in the framework of HEU/LEU core conversion studies. It is applied in the thermal-hydraulic computer code SHORT (Steady-state HOR Thermal-hydraulics) which is presently in use in designing core configurations and for in-core fuel management. An elaborate measurement program was performed for establishing the core hydraulic characteristics for a variety of conditions. The hydraulic data were obtained with a dummy fuel element with special equipment allowing a.o. direct measurement of the true core flow rate. Using these data the thermal-hydraulic model was validated experimentally. The model, experimental tests, and model validation are discussed. (author)

  1. Validation of Computer Models for Homeland Security Purposes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schweppe, John E.; Ely, James; Kouzes, Richard T.; McConn, Ronald J.; Pagh, Richard T.; Robinson, Sean M.; Siciliano, Edward R.; Borgardt, James D.; Bender, Sarah E.; Earnhart, Alison H.

    2005-01-01

    At Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, we are developing computer models of radiation portal monitors for screening vehicles and cargo. Detailed models of the radiation detection equipment, vehicles, cargo containers, cargos, and radioactive sources have been created. These are used to determine the optimal configuration of detectors and the best alarm algorithms for the detection of items of interest while minimizing nuisance alarms due to the presence of legitimate radioactive material in the commerce stream. Most of the modeling is done with the Monte Carlo code MCNP to describe the transport of gammas and neutrons from extended sources through large, irregularly shaped absorbers to large detectors. A fundamental prerequisite is the validation of the computational models against field measurements. We describe the first step of this validation process, the comparison of the models to measurements with bare static sources

  2. Verification and Validation of FAARR Model and Data Envelopment Analysis Models for United States Army Recruiting

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Piskator, Gene

    1998-01-01

    ...) model and to develop a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) modeling strategy. First, the FAARR model was verified using a simulation of a known production function and validated using sensitivity analysis and ex-post forecasts...

  3. Experimental Validation of Flow Force Models for Fast Switching Valves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bender, Niels Christian; Pedersen, Henrik Clemmensen; Nørgård, Christian

    2017-01-01

    This paper comprises a detailed study of the forces acting on a Fast Switching Valve (FSV) plunger. The objective is to investigate to what extend different models are valid to be used for design purposes. These models depend on the geometry of the moving plunger and the properties of the surroun......This paper comprises a detailed study of the forces acting on a Fast Switching Valve (FSV) plunger. The objective is to investigate to what extend different models are valid to be used for design purposes. These models depend on the geometry of the moving plunger and the properties...... velocity is non-zero. This is the case in FSVs, where it results in an additional dampening effect, which is of relevance when analyzing contact-impact. Experimental data from different tests cases of a FSV has been gathered, with the plunger moving through a medium of either oil or air. This data is used...... to compare and validate different models, where an effort is directed towards capturing the fluid squeeze effect just before material on material contact. The test data is compared with simulation data relying solely on analytic formulations. The general dynamics of the plunger is validated...

  4. Modeling and validation of microwave ablations with internal vaporization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Jason; Birla, Sohan; Bedoya, Mariajose; Jones, David; Subbiah, Jeyam; Brace, Christopher L

    2015-02-01

    Numerical simulation is increasingly being utilized for computer-aided design of treatment devices, analysis of ablation growth, and clinical treatment planning. Simulation models to date have incorporated electromagnetic wave propagation and heat conduction, but not other relevant physics such as water vaporization and mass transfer. Such physical changes are particularly noteworthy during the intense heat generation associated with microwave heating. In this paper, a numerical model was created that integrates microwave heating with water vapor generation and transport by using porous media assumptions in the tissue domain. The heating physics of the water vapor model was validated through temperature measurements taken at locations 5, 10, and 20 mm away from the heating zone of the microwave antenna in homogenized ex vivo bovine liver setup. Cross-sectional area of water vapor transport was validated through intraprocedural computed tomography (CT) during microwave ablations in homogenized ex vivo bovine liver. Iso-density contours from CT images were compared to vapor concentration contours from the numerical model at intermittent time points using the Jaccard index. In general, there was an improving correlation in ablation size dimensions as the ablation procedure proceeded, with a Jaccard index of 0.27, 0.49, 0.61, 0.67, and 0.69 at 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 min, respectively. This study demonstrates the feasibility and validity of incorporating water vapor concentration into thermal ablation simulations and validating such models experimentally.

  5. Predicting third molar surgery operative time: a validated model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susarla, Srinivas M; Dodson, Thomas B

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the present study was to develop and validate a statistical model to predict third molar (M3) operative time. This was a prospective cohort study consisting of a sample of subjects presenting for M3 removal. The demographic, anatomic, and operative variables were recorded for each subject. Using an index sample of randomly selected subjects, a multiple linear regression model was generated to predict the operating time. A nonoverlapping group of randomly selected subjects (validation sample) was used to assess model accuracy. P≤.05 was considered significant. The sample was composed of 150 subjects (n) who had 450 (k) M3s removed. The index sample (n=100 subjects, k=313 M3s extracted) had a mean age of 25.4±10.0 years. The mean extraction time was 6.4±7.0 minutes. The multiple linear regression model included M3 location, Winter's classification, tooth morphology, number of teeth extracted, procedure type, and surgical experience (R2=0.58). No statistically significant differences were seen between the index sample and the validation sample (n=50, k=137) for any of the study variables. Compared with the index model, the β-coefficients of the validation model were similar in direction and magnitude for most variables. Compared with the observed extraction time for all teeth in the sample, the predicted extraction time was not significantly different (P=.16). Fair agreement was seen between the β-coefficients for our multiple models in the index and validation populations, with no significant difference in the predicted and observed operating times. Copyright © 2013 American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Validation of statistical models for creep rupture by parametric analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolton, J., E-mail: john.bolton@uwclub.net [65, Fisher Ave., Rugby, Warks CV22 5HW (United Kingdom)

    2012-01-15

    Statistical analysis is an efficient method for the optimisation of any candidate mathematical model of creep rupture data, and for the comparative ranking of competing models. However, when a series of candidate models has been examined and the best of the series has been identified, there is no statistical criterion to determine whether a yet more accurate model might be devised. Hence there remains some uncertainty that the best of any series examined is sufficiently accurate to be considered reliable as a basis for extrapolation. This paper proposes that models should be validated primarily by parametric graphical comparison to rupture data and rupture gradient data. It proposes that no mathematical model should be considered reliable for extrapolation unless the visible divergence between model and data is so small as to leave no apparent scope for further reduction. This study is based on the data for a 12% Cr alloy steel used in BS PD6605:1998 to exemplify its recommended statistical analysis procedure. The models considered in this paper include a) a relatively simple model, b) the PD6605 recommended model and c) a more accurate model of somewhat greater complexity. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The paper discusses the validation of creep rupture models derived from statistical analysis. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer It demonstrates that models can be satisfactorily validated by a visual-graphic comparison of models to data. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method proposed utilises test data both as conventional rupture stress and as rupture stress gradient. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The approach is shown to be more reliable than a well-established and widely used method (BS PD6605).

  7. Progress in Geant4 Electromagnetic Physics Modelling and Validation

    CERN Document Server

    Apostolakis, J; Bagulya, A; Brown, J M C; Burkhardt, H; Chikuma, N; Cortes-Giraldo, M A; Elles, S; Grichine, V; Guatelli, S; Incerti, S; Ivanchenko, V N; Jacquemier, J; Kadri, O; Maire, M; Pandola, L; Sawkey, D; Toshito, T; Urban, L; Yamashita, T

    2015-01-01

    In this work we report on recent improvements in the electromagnetic (EM) physics models of Geant4 and new validations of EM physics. Improvements have been made in models of the photoelectric effect, Compton scattering, gamma conversion to electron and muon pairs, fluctuations of energy loss, multiple scattering, synchrotron radiation, and high energy positron annihilation. The results of these developments are included in the new Geant4 version 10.1 and in patches to previous versions 9.6 and 10.0 that are planned to be used for production for run-2 at LHC. The Geant4 validation suite for EM physics has been extended and new validation results are shown in this work. In particular, the effect of gamma-nuclear interactions on EM shower shape at LHC energies is discussed.

  8. A practical guide for operational validation of discrete simulation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabiano Leal

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available As the number of simulation experiments increases, the necessity for validation and verification of these models demands special attention on the part of the simulation practitioners. By analyzing the current scientific literature, it is observed that the operational validation description presented in many papers does not agree on the importance designated to this process and about its applied techniques, subjective or objective. With the expectation of orienting professionals, researchers and students in simulation, this article aims to elaborate a practical guide through the compilation of statistical techniques in the operational validation of discrete simulation models. Finally, the guide's applicability was evaluated by using two study objects, which represent two manufacturing cells, one from the automobile industry and the other from a Brazilian tech company. For each application, the guide identified distinct steps, due to the different aspects that characterize the analyzed distributions

  9. Multiphysics modelling and experimental validation of high concentration photovoltaic modules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theristis, Marios; Fernández, Eduardo F.; Sumner, Mike; O'Donovan, Tadhg S.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A multiphysics modelling approach for concentrating photovoltaics was developed. • An experimental campaign was conducted to validate the models. • The experimental results were in good agreement with the models. • The multiphysics modelling allows the concentrator’s optimisation. - Abstract: High concentration photovoltaics, equipped with high efficiency multijunction solar cells, have great potential in achieving cost-effective and clean electricity generation at utility scale. Such systems are more complex compared to conventional photovoltaics because of the multiphysics effect that is present. Modelling the power output of such systems is therefore crucial for their further market penetration. Following this line, a multiphysics modelling procedure for high concentration photovoltaics is presented in this work. It combines an open source spectral model, a single diode electrical model and a three-dimensional finite element thermal model. In order to validate the models and the multiphysics modelling procedure against actual data, an outdoor experimental campaign was conducted in Albuquerque, New Mexico using a high concentration photovoltaic monomodule that is thoroughly described in terms of its geometry and materials. The experimental results were in good agreement (within 2.7%) with the predicted maximum power point. This multiphysics approach is relatively more complex when compared to empirical models, but besides the overall performance prediction it can also provide better understanding of the physics involved in the conversion of solar irradiance into electricity. It can therefore be used for the design and optimisation of high concentration photovoltaic modules.

  10. Development, Implementation and Experimental Validations of Activation Products Models for Water Pool Reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petriw, S.N.

    2001-01-01

    Some parameters were obtained both calculations and experiments in order to determined the source of the meaning activation products in water pool reactors. In this case, the study was done in RA-6 reactor (Centro Atomico Bariloche - Argentina).In normal operation, neutron flux on core activates aluminium plates.The activity on coolant water came from its impurities activation and meanly from some quantity of aluminium that, once activated, leave the cladding and is transported by water cooling system.This quantity depends of the 'recoil range' of each activation reaction.The 'staying time' on pool (the time that nuclides are circulating on the reactor pool) is another characteristic parameter of the system.Stationary state activity of some nuclides depends of this time.Also, several theoretical models of activation on coolant water system are showed, and their experimental validations

  11. A regional tidal/subtidal circulation model of the southeastern Bering Sea: development, sensitivity analyses and hindcasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermann, Albert J.; Stabeno, Phyllis J.; Haidvogel, Dale B.; Musgrave, David L.

    2002-12-01

    A regional eddy-resolving primitive equation circulation model was used to simulate circulation on the southeastern Bering Sea (SEBS) shelf and basin. This model resolves the dominant observed mean currents, eddies and meanders in the region, and simultaneously includes both tidal and subtidal dynamics. Circulation, temperature, and salinity fields for years 1995 and 1997 were hindcast, using daily wind and buoyancy flux estimates, and tidal forcing derived from a global model. This paper describes the development of the regional model, a comparison of model results with available Eulerian and Lagrangian data, a comparison of results between the two hindcast years, and a sensitivity analysis. Based on these hindcasts and sensitivity analyses, we suggest the following: (1) The Bering Slope Current is a primary source of large ( ˜100 km diameter) eddies in the SEBS basin. Smaller meanders are also formed along the 100 m isobath on the southeastern shelf, and along the 200-m isobath near the shelf break. (2) There is substantial interannual variability in the statistics of eddies within the basin, driven by variability in the strength of the ANSC. (3) The mean flow on the shelf is not strongly sensitive to changes in the imposed strength of the ANSC; rather, it is strongly sensitive to the local wind forcing. (4) Vertical mixing in the SEBS is strongly affected by both tidal and subtidal dynamics. Strongest mixing in the SEBS may in fact occur between the 100- and 400-m isobaths, near the Pribilof Islands, and in Unimak Pass.

  12. Validation of a tuber blight (Phytophthora infestans) prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potato tuber blight caused by Phytophthora infestans accounts for significant losses in storage. There is limited published quantitative data on predicting tuber blight. We validated a tuber blight prediction model developed in New York with cultivars Allegany, NY 101, and Katahdin using independent...

  13. Model validation studies of solar systems, Phase III. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, L.J.; Winn, C.B.

    1978-12-01

    Results obtained from a validation study of the TRNSYS, SIMSHAC, and SOLCOST solar system simulation and design are presented. Also included are comparisons between the FCHART and SOLCOST solar system design programs and some changes that were made to the SOLCOST program. Finally, results obtained from the analysis of several solar radiation models are presented. Separate abstracts were prepared for ten papers.

  14. A Comparison and Validation of Two Surface Ship Readiness Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-09-01

    they cannot be considered validated. Any application of these programs without additional verification is at the risk of the user. vii Vifi TABLE OF...contains the S’AS code that was used to perform the full model run for the SIM. // SIMIC JOB USER=S6402,CLASS--C 1/ EXEC SAS //WORK DD UNIT=SYSDASPACE

  15. Validating Work Discrimination and Coping Strategy Models for Sexual Minorities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Y. Barry; Williams, Wendi; Dispenza, Franco

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to validate and expand on Y. B. Chung's (2001) models of work discrimination and coping strategies among lesbian, gay, and bisexual persons. In semistructured individual interviews, 17 lesbians and gay men reported 35 discrimination incidents and their related coping strategies. Responses were coded based on Chung's…

  16. Validity of the Bersohn–Zewail model beyond justification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Jakob; Henriksen, Niels Engholm; Møller, Klaus Braagaard

    2012-01-01

    excellent agreement between the classical trajectory and the average position of the excited state wave packet. By investigating the approximations connecting the nuclear dynamics described by quantum mechanics and the BZ model, we conclude that this agreement goes far beyond the validity of the individual...

  17. Improving Perovskite Solar Cells: Insights From a Validated Device Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sherkar, Tejas S.; Momblona, Cristina; Gil-Escrig, Lidon; Bolink, Henk J.; Koster, L. Jan Anton

    2017-01-01

    To improve the efficiency of existing perovskite solar cells (PSCs), a detailed understanding of the underlying device physics during their operation is essential. Here, a device model has been developed and validated that describes the operation of PSCs and quantitatively explains the role of

  18. Validating soil phosphorus routines in the SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phosphorus transfer from agricultural soils to surface waters is an important environmental issue. Commonly used models like SWAT have not always been updated to reflect improved understanding of soil P transformations and transfer to runoff. Our objective was to validate the ability of the P routin...

  19. Data Set for Emperical Validation of Double Skin Facade Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kalyanova, Olena; Jensen, Rasmus Lund; Heiselberg, Per

    2008-01-01

    During the recent years the attention to the double skin facade (DSF) concept has greatly increased. Nevertheless, the application of the concept depends on whether a reliable model for simulation of the DSF performance will be developed or pointed out. This is, however, not possible to do, until...... the model is empirically validated and its' limitations for the DSF modeling are identified. Correspondingly, the existence and availability of the experimental data is very essential. Three sets of accurate empirical data for validation of DSF modeling with building simulation software were produced within...... of a double skin facade: 1. External air curtain mode, it is the naturally ventilated DSF cavity with the top and bottom openings open to the outdoor; 2. Thermal insulation mode, when all of the DSF openings closed; 3. Preheating mode, with the bottom DSF openings open to the outdoor and top openings open...

  20. Cloud and circulation feedbacks in a near-global aquaplanet cloud-resolving model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narenpitak, Pornampai; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Khairoutdinov, Marat F.

    2017-06-01

    A near-global aquaplanet cloud-resolving model (NGAqua) with fixed meridionally varying sea-surface temperature (SST) is used to investigate cloud feedbacks due to three climate perturbations: a uniform 4 K SST increase, a quadrupled-CO2 concentration, and both combined. NGAqua has a horizontal resolution of 4 km with no cumulus parameterization. Its domain is a zonally periodic 20,480 km-long tropical channel, spanning 46°S-N. It produces plausible mean distributions of clouds, rainfall, and winds. After spin-up, 80 days are analyzed for the control and increased-SST simulations, and 40 days for those with quadrupled CO2. The Intertropical Convergence Zone width and tropical cloud cover are not strongly affected by SST warming or CO2 increase, except for the expected upward shift in high clouds with warming, but both perturbations weaken the Hadley circulation. Increased SST induces a statistically significant increase in subtropical low cloud fraction and in-cloud liquid water content but decreases midlatitude cloud, yielding slightly positive domain-mean shortwave cloud feedbacks. CO2 quadrupling causes a slight shallowing and a statistically insignificant reduction of subtropical low cloud fraction. Warming-induced low cloud changes are strongly correlated with changes in estimated inversion strength, which increases modestly in the subtropics but decreases in the midlatitudes. Enhanced clear-sky boundary layer radiative cooling in the warmer climate accompanies the robust subtropical low cloud increase. The probability distribution of column relative humidity across the tropics and subtropics is compared between the control and increased-SST simulations. It shows no evidence of bimodality or increased convective aggregation in a warmer climate.

  1. Quantifying Contributions to Polar Warming Amplification in a Coupled General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, M.; Lu, J.

    2009-12-01

    An idealized coupled general circulation model is used to demonstrate that the surface warming due the doubling of CO2 can still be stronger in high latitudes than in low latitudes even without the negative evaporation feedback in low latitudes and positive ice-albedo feedback in high latitudes, as well as without the poleward latent heat transport. The new climate feedback analysis method formulated in Lu and Cai (2009) is used to isolate contributions from both radiative and non-radiative feedback processes to the total temperature change obtained with the coupled GCM. These partial temperature changes are additive and their sum is convergent to the total temperature change. The radiative energy flux perturbations due to the doubling of CO2 and water vapor feedback lead to a stronger warming in low latitudes than in high latitudes at the surface and throughout the entire troposphere. In the vertical, the temperature changes due to the doubling of CO2 and water vapor feedback are maximum near the surface and decrease with height at all latitudes. The simultaneous warming reduction in low latitudes and amplification in high latitudes by the enhanced poleward dry static energy transport reverses the warming pattern at the surface and in the lower troposphere into poleward increasing, but it is not able to do so in the upper troposphere. The enhanced vertical moist convections in the tropics acts to amplify the warming in the upper troposphere at an expense of reducing the warming in the lower troposphere and surface warming in the tropics. As a result, the final warming pattern shows the co-existence of a reduction of the meridional temperature gradient at the surface and in the lower troposphere with an increase of the meridional temperature gradient in the upper troposphere. In the tropics, the total warming is stronger in the upper troposphere than the surface warming.

  2. Quantifying contributions to polar warming amplification in an idealized coupled general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Jianhua; Cai, Ming

    2010-04-01

    An idealized coupled general circulation model is used to demonstrate that the surface warming due to the doubling of CO2 can still be stronger in high latitudes than in low latitudes even without the negative evaporation feedback in low latitudes and positive ice-albedo feedback in high latitudes, as well as without the poleward latent heat transport. The new climate feedback analysis method formulated in Lu and Cai (Clim Dyn 32:873-885, 2009) is used to isolate contributions from both radiative and non-radiative feedback processes to the total temperature change obtained with the coupled GCM. These partial temperature changes are additive and their sum is convergent to the total temperature change. The radiative energy flux perturbations due to the doubling of CO2 and water vapor feedback lead to a stronger warming in low latitudes than in high latitudes at the surface and throughout the entire troposphere. In the vertical, the temperature changes due to the doubling of CO2 and water vapor feedback are maximum near the surface and decrease with height at all latitudes. The simultaneous warming reduction in low latitudes and amplification in high latitudes by the enhanced poleward dry static energy transport reverses the poleward decreasing warming pattern at the surface and in the lower troposphere, but it is not able to do so in the upper troposphere. The enhanced vertical moist convection in the tropics acts to amplify the warming in the upper troposphere at an expense of reducing the warming in the lower troposphere and surface warming in the tropics. As a result, the final warming pattern shows the co-existence of a reduction of the meridional temperature gradient at the surface and in the lower troposphere with an increase of the meridional temperature gradient in the upper troposphere. In the tropics, the total warming in the upper troposphere is stronger than the surface warming.

  3. Circulating miRNAs: Potential Novel Biomarkers for Hepatopathology Progression and Diagnosis of Schistosomiasis Japonica in Two Murine Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengfei Cai

    Full Text Available Schistosomiasis remains a major public health issue, with an estimated 230 million people infected worldwide. Novel tools for early diagnosis and surveillance of schistosomiasis are currently needed. Elevated levels of circulating microRNAs (miRNAs are commonly associated with the initiation and progression of human disease pathology. Hence, serum miRNAs are emerging as promising biomarkers for the diagnosis of a variety of human diseases. This study investigated circulating host miRNAs commonly associated with liver diseases and schistosome parasite-derived miRNAs during the progression of hepatic schistosomiasis japonica in two murine models.Two mouse strains (C57BL/6 and BALB/c were infected with a low dosage of Schistosoma japonicum cercariae. The dynamic patterns of hepatopathology, the serum levels of liver injury-related enzymes and the serum circulating miRNAs (both host and parasite-derived levels were then assessed in the progression of schistosomiasis japonica. For the first time, an inverse correlation between the severity of hepatocyte necrosis and the level of liver fibrosis was revealed during S. japonicum infection in BALB/c, but not in C57BL/6 mice. The inconsistent levels of the host circulating miRNAs, miR-122, miR-21 and miR-34a in serum were confirmed in the two murine models during infection, which limits their potential value as individual diagnostic biomarkers for schistosomiasis. However, their serum levels in combination may serve as a novel biomarker to mirror the hepatic immune responses induced in the mammalian host during schistosome infection and the degree of hepatopathology. Further, two circulating parasite-specific miRNAs, sja-miR-277 and sja-miR-3479-3p, were shown to have potential as diagnostic markers for schistosomiasis japonica.We provide the first evidence for the potential of utilizing circulating host miRNAs to indicate different immune responses and the severity of hepatopathology outcomes induced in

  4. Modeling lateral circulation and its influence on the along-channel flow in a branched estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Lei; He, Qing; Shen, Jian

    2018-02-01

    A numerical modeling study of the influence of the lateral flow on the estuarine exchange flow was conducted in the north passage of the Changjiang estuary. The lateral flows show substantial variabilities within a flood-ebb tidal cycle. The strong lateral flow occurring during flood tide is caused primarily by the unique cross-shoal flow that induces a strong northward (looking upstream) barotropic force near the surface and advects saltier water toward the northern part of the channel, resulting in a southward baroclinic force caused by the lateral density gradient. Thus, a two-layer structure of lateral flows is produced during the flood tide. The lateral flows are vigorous near the flood slack and the magnitude can exceed that of the along-channel tidal flow during that period. The strong vertical shear of the lateral flows and the salinity gradient in lateral direction generate lateral tidal straining, which are out of phase with the along-channel tidal straining. Consequently, stratification is enhanced at the early stage of the ebb tide. In contrast, strong along-channel straining is apparent during the late ebb tide. The vertical mixing disrupts the vertical density gradient, thus suppressing stratification. The impact of lateral straining on stratification during spring tide is more pronounced than that of along-channel straining during late flood and early ebb tides. The momentum balance along the estuary suggests that lateral flow can augment the residual exchange flow. The advection of lateral flows brings low-energy water from the shoal to the deep channel during the flood tide, whereas the energetic water is moved to the shoal via lateral advection during the ebb tide. The impact of lateral flow on estuarine circulation of this multiple-channel estuary is different from single-channel estuary. A model simulation by blocking the cross-shoal flow shows that the magnitudes of lateral flows and tidal straining are reduced. Moreover, the reduced lateral

  5. Modeling lateral circulation and its influence on the along-channel flow in a branched estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Lei; He, Qing; Shen, Jian

    2017-12-01

    A numerical modeling study of the influence of the lateral flow on the estuarine exchange flow was conducted in the north passage of the Changjiang estuary. The lateral flows show substantial variabilities within a flood-ebb tidal cycle. The strong lateral flow occurring during flood tide is caused primarily by the unique cross-shoal flow that induces a strong northward (looking upstream) barotropic force near the surface and advects saltier water toward the northern part of the channel, resulting in a southward baroclinic force caused by the lateral density gradient. Thus, a two-layer structure of lateral flows is produced during the flood tide. The lateral flows are vigorous near the flood slack and the magnitude can exceed that of the along-channel tidal flow during that period. The strong vertical shear of the lateral flows and the salinity gradient in lateral direction generate lateral tidal straining, which are out of phase with the along-channel tidal straining. Consequently, stratification is enhanced at the early stage of the ebb tide. In contrast, strong along-channel straining is apparent during the late ebb tide. The vertical mixing disrupts the vertical density gradient, thus suppressing stratification. The impact of lateral straining on stratification during spring tide is more pronounced than that of along-channel straining during late flood and early ebb tides. The momentum balance along the estuary suggests that lateral flow can augment the residual exchange flow. The advection of lateral flows brings low-energy water from the shoal to the deep channel during the flood tide, whereas the energetic water is moved to the shoal via lateral advection during the ebb tide. The impact of lateral flow on estuarine circulation of this multiple-channel estuary is different from single-channel estuary. A model simulation by blocking the cross-shoal flow shows that the magnitudes of lateral flows and tidal straining are reduced. Moreover, the reduced lateral

  6. Validation of Fatigue Modeling Predictions in Aviation Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Kevin; Martinez, Siera; Flynn-Evans, Erin

    2017-01-01

    Bio-mathematical fatigue models that predict levels of alertness and performance are one potential tool for use within integrated fatigue risk management approaches. A number of models have been developed that provide predictions based on acute and chronic sleep loss, circadian desynchronization, and sleep inertia. Some are publicly available and gaining traction in settings such as commercial aviation as a means of evaluating flight crew schedules for potential fatigue-related risks. Yet, most models have not been rigorously evaluated and independently validated for the operations to which they are being applied and many users are not fully aware of the limitations in which model results should be interpreted and applied.

  7. Modelling the water mass circulation in the Aegean Sea. Part I: wind stresses, thermal and haline fluxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Valioulis

    Full Text Available The aim of this work is to develop a computer model capable of simulating the water mass circulation in the Aegean Sea. There is historical, phenomenological and recent experimental evidence of important hydrographical features whose causes have been variably identified as the highly complex bathymetry, the extreme seasonal variations in temperature, the considerable fresh water fluxes, and the large gradients in salinity or temperature across neighbouring water masses (Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean. In the approach taken here, physical processes are introduced into the model one by one. This method reveals the parameters responsible for permanent and seasonal features of the Aegean Sea circulation. In the first part of the work reported herein, wind-induced circulation appears to be seasonally invariant. This yearly pattern is overcome by the inclusion of baroclinicity in the model in the form of surface thermohaline fluxes. The model shows an intricate pattern of sub-basin gyres and locally strong currents, permanent or seasonal, in accord with the experimental evidence.

  8. Modelling the water mass circulation in the Aegean Sea. Part I: wind stresses, thermal and haline fluxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Valioulis

    1994-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work is to develop a computer model capable of simulating the water mass circulation in the Aegean Sea. There is historical, phenomenological and recent experimental evidence of important hydrographical features whose causes have been variably identified as the highly complex bathymetry, the extreme seasonal variations in temperature, the considerable fresh water fluxes, and the large gradients in salinity or temperature across neighbouring water masses (Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean. In the approach taken here, physical processes are introduced into the model one by one. This method reveals the parameters responsible for permanent and seasonal features of the Aegean Sea circulation. In the first part of the work reported herein, wind-induced circulation appears to be seasonally invariant. This yearly pattern is overcome by the inclusion of baroclinicity in the model in the form of surface thermohaline fluxes. The model shows an intricate pattern of sub-basin gyres and locally strong currents, permanent or seasonal, in accord with the experimental evidence.

  9. Modeling the Dynamics of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Over the Antarctic Plateau With a General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vignon, Etienne; Hourdin, Frédéric; Genthon, Christophe; Van de Wiel, Bas J. H.; Gallée, Hubert; Madeleine, Jean-Baptiste; Beaumet, Julien

    2018-01-01

    Observations evidence extremely stable boundary layers (SBL) over the Antarctic Plateau and sharp regime transitions between weakly and very stable conditions. Representing such features is a challenge for climate models. This study assesses the modeling of the dynamics of the boundary layer over the Antarctic Plateau in the LMDZ general circulation model. It uses 1 year simulations with a stretched-grid over Dome C. The model is nudged with reanalyses outside of the Dome C region such as simulations can be directly compared to in situ observations. We underline the critical role of the downward longwave radiation for modeling the surface temperature. LMDZ reasonably represents the near-surface seasonal profiles of wind and temperature but strong temperature inversions are degraded by enhanced turbulent mixing formulations. Unlike ERA-Interim reanalyses, LMDZ reproduces two SBL regimes and the regime transition, with a sudden increase in the near-surface inversion with decreasing wind speed. The sharpness of the transition depends on the stability function used for calculating the surface drag coefficient. Moreover, using a refined vertical grid leads to a better reversed "S-shaped" relationship between the inversion and the wind. Sudden warming events associated to synoptic advections of warm and moist air are also well reproduced. Near-surface supersaturation with respect to ice is not allowed in LMDZ but the impact on the SBL structure is moderate. Finally, climate simulations with the free model show that the recommended configuration leads to stronger inversions and winds over the ice-sheet. However, the near-surface wind remains underestimated over the slopes of East-Antarctica.

  10. Aerosol indirect effects ? general circulation model intercomparison and evaluation with satellite data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quaas, Johannes; Ming, Yi; Menon, Surabi; Takemura, Toshihiko; Wang, Minghuai; Penner, Joyce E.; Gettelman, Andrew; Lohmann, Ulrike; Bellouin, Nicolas; Boucher, Olivier; Sayer, Andrew M.; Thomas, Gareth E.; McComiskey, Allison; Feingold, Graham; Hoose, Corinna; Kristansson, Jon Egill; Liu, Xiaohong; Balkanski, Yves; Donner, Leo J.; Ginoux, Paul A.; Stier, Philip; Grandey, Benjamin; Feichter, Johann; Sednev, Igor; Bauer, Susanne E.; Koch, Dorothy; Grainger, Roy G.; Kirkevag, Alf; Iversen, Trond; Seland, Oyvind; Easter, Richard; Ghan, Steven J.; Rasch, Philip J.; Morrison, Hugh; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Iacono, Michael J.; Kinne, Stefan; Schulz, Michael

    2010-03-12

    Aerosol indirect effects continue to constitute one of the most important uncertainties for anthropogenic climate perturbations. Within the international AEROCOM initiative, the representation of aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions in ten different general circulation models (GCMs) is evaluated using three satellite datasets. The focus is on stratiform liquid water clouds since most GCMs do not include ice nucleation effects, and none of the model explicitly parameterises aerosol effects on convective clouds. We compute statistical relationships between aerosol optical depth ({tau}{sub a}) and various cloud and radiation quantities in a manner that is consistent between the models and the satellite data. It is found that the model-simulated influence of aerosols on cloud droplet number concentration (N{sub d}) compares relatively well to the satellite data at least over the ocean. The relationship between {tau}{sub a} and liquid water path is simulated much too strongly by the models. This suggests that the implementation of the second aerosol indirect effect mainly in terms of an autoconversion parameterisation has to be revisited in the GCMs. A positive relationship between total cloud fraction (f{sub cld}) and {tau}{sub a} as found in the satellite data is simulated by the majority of the models, albeit less strongly than that in the satellite data in most of them. In a discussion of the hypotheses proposed in the literature to explain the satellite-derived strong f{sub cld} - {tau}{sub a} relationship, our results indicate that none can be identified as a unique explanation. Relationships similar to the ones found in satellite data between {tau}{sub a} and cloud top temperature or outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) are simulated by only a few GCMs. The GCMs that simulate a negative OLR - {tau}{sub a} relationship show a strong positive correlation between {tau}{sub a} and f{sub cld} The short-wave total aerosol radiative forcing as simulated by the GCMs is

  11. HELOKA-HP thermal-hydraulic model validation and calibration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, Xue Zhou; Ghidersa, Bradut-Eugen; Badea, Aurelian Florin

    2016-11-01

    Highlights: • The electrical heater in HELOKA-HP has been modeled with RELAP5-3D using experimental data as input. • The model has been validated using novel techniques for assimilating experimental data and the representative model parameters with BEST-EST. • The methodology is successfully used for reducing the model uncertainties and provides a quantitative measure of the consistency between the experimental data and the model. - Abstract: The Helium Loop Karlsruhe High Pressure (HELOKA-HP) is an experimental facility for the testing of various helium-cooled components at high temperature (500 °C) and high pressure (8 MPa) for nuclear fusion applications. For modeling the loop thermal dynamics, a thermal-hydraulic model has been created using the system code RELAP5-3D. Recently, new experimental data covering the behavior of the loop components under relevant operational conditions have been made available giving the possibility of validating and calibrating the existing models in order to reduce the uncertainties of the simulated responses. This paper presents an example where such process has been applied for the HELOKA electrical heater model. Using novel techniques for assimilating experimental data, implemented in the computational module BEST-EST, the representative parameters of the model have been calibrated.

  12. Diagnostic model of 3-D circulation in the Arabian Sea and western equatorial Indian Ocean: Results of monthly mean sea surface topography

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Bahulayan, N.; Shaji, C.

    A three-dimensional diagnostic model has been developed to compute the monthly mean circulation and sea surface topography in the Western Tropical Indian Ocean north of 20 degrees S and west of 80 degrees E. The diagnostic model equations...

  13. Testing and Implementation of the Navy's Operational Circulation Model for the Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrar, P. D.; Mask, A. C.

    2012-04-01

    The US Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO) has the responsibility for running ocean models in support of Navy operations. NAVOCEANO delivers Navy-relevant global, regional, and coastal ocean forecast products on a 24 hour/7 day a week schedule. In 2011, NAVOCEANO implemented an operational version of the RNCOM (Regional Navy Coastal Ocean Model) for the Mediterranean Sea (MedSea), replacing an older variation of the Princeton Ocean Model originally set up for this area back in the mid-1990's. RNCOM is a gridded model that assimilates both satellite data and in situ profile data in near real time. This 3km MedSea RNCOM is nested within a lower resolution global NCOM in the Atlantic at the 12.5 degree West longitude. Before being accepted as a source of operational products, a Navy ocean model must pass a series of validation tests and then once in service, its skill is monitored by software and regional specialists. This presentation will provide a brief summary of the initial evaluation results. Because of the oceanographic peculiarities of this basin, the MedSea implementation posed a set of new problems for an RNCOM operation. One problem was the present Navy satellite altimetry model assimilation techniques do not improve Mediterranean NCOM forecasts, so it has been turned off, pending improvements. Another problem was that since most in-situ observations were profiling floats with short five-day profiling intervals, there was a problem with temporal aliasing when comparing these observations to the NCOM predictions. Because of the time and spatial correlations in the MedSea and in the model, the observation/model comparisons would give an unrealistically optimistic estimate of model accuracy of the Mediterranean's temperature/salinity structure. Careful pre-selection of profiles for comparison during the evaluation stage, based on spatial distribution and novelty, was used to minimize this effect. NAVOCEANO's operational customers are interested primarily in

  14. The Response of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation to Intensified Irrigation in Global Climate Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Sonali P.; Puma, Michael J.; Cook, Benjamin I.

    2013-01-01

    Agricultural intensification in South Asia has resulted in the expansion and intensification of surface irrigation over the twentieth century. The resulting changes to the surface energy balance could affect the temperature contrasts between the South Asian land surface and the equatorial Indian Ocean, potentially altering the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) circulation. Prior studies have noted apparent declines in the monsoon intensity over the twentieth century and have focused on how altered surface energy balances impact the SASM rainfall distribution. Here, we use the coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R general circulation model to investigate the impact of intensifying irrigation on the large-scale SASM circulation over the twentieth century, including how the effect of irrigation compares to the impact of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. We force our simulations with time-varying, historical estimates of irrigation, both alone and with twentieth century GHGs and other forcings. In the irrigation only experiment, irrigation rates correlate strongly with lower and upper level temperature contrasts between the Indian sub-continent and the Indian Ocean (Pearson's r = -0.66 and r = -0.46, respectively), important quantities that control the strength of the SASM circulation. When GHG forcing is included, these correlations strengthen: r = -0.72 and r = -0.47 for lower and upper level temperature contrasts, respectively. Under irrigated conditions, the mean SASM intensity in the model decreases only slightly and insignificantly. However, in the simulation with irrigation and GHG forcing, inter-annual variability of the SASM circulation decreases by *40 %, consistent with trends in the reanalysis products. This suggests that the inclusion of irrigation may be necessary to accurately simulate the historical trends and variability of the SASM system over the last 50 years. These findings suggest that intensifying irrigation, in concert with

  15. Exploring Secondary Students' Epistemological Features Depending on the Evaluation Levels of the Group Model on Blood Circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Shinyoung; Kim, Heui-Baik

    2014-05-01

    The purpose of this study is to identify the epistemological features and model qualities depending on model evaluation levels and to explore the reasoning process behind high-level evaluation through small group interaction about blood circulation. Nine groups of three to four students in the eighth grade participated in the modeling practice. Their group models, which were represented by discourse and blood circulation diagrams, were analyzed for the development of the framework that informed the model evaluation levels and epistemological features. The model evaluation levels were categorized into levels one to four based on the following evaluation criteria: no evaluation, authoritative sources, superficial criteria, and more comprehensive criteria. The qualities of group models varied with the criteria of model evaluation. While students who used authoritative sources for evaluating the group model appeared to have an absolutist epistemology, students who evaluated according to the superficial criteria and more comprehensive criteria appeared to have an evaluative epistemology. Furthermore, groups with Level four showed a chain reaction of cognitive reasoning during the modeling practice concerning practical epistemology. The findings have implications for science teachers and education researchers who want to understand the context for developing students' practical epistemologies.

  16. Verification and Validation of Heat Transfer Model of AGREE Code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tak, N. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Seker, V.; Drzewiecki, T. J.; Downar, T. J. [Department of Nuclear Engineering and Radiological Sciences, Univ. of Michigan, Michigan (United States); Kelly, J. M. [US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington (United States)

    2013-05-15

    The AGREE code was originally developed as a multi physics simulation code to perform design and safety analysis of Pebble Bed Reactors (PBR). Currently, additional capability for the analysis of Prismatic Modular Reactor (PMR) core is in progress. Newly implemented fluid model for a PMR core is based on a subchannel approach which has been widely used in the analyses of light water reactor (LWR) cores. A hexagonal fuel (or graphite block) is discretized into triangular prism nodes having effective conductivities. Then, a meso-scale heat transfer model is applied to the unit cell geometry of a prismatic fuel block. Both unit cell geometries of multi-hole and pin-in-hole types of prismatic fuel blocks are considered in AGREE. The main objective of this work is to verify and validate the heat transfer model newly implemented for a PMR core in the AGREE code. The measured data in the HENDEL experiment were used for the validation of the heat transfer model for a pin-in-hole fuel block. However, the HENDEL tests were limited to only steady-state conditions of pin-in-hole fuel blocks. There exist no available experimental data regarding a heat transfer in multi-hole fuel blocks. Therefore, numerical benchmarks using conceptual problems are considered to verify the heat transfer model of AGREE for multi-hole fuel blocks as well as transient conditions. The CORONA and GAMMA+ codes were used to compare the numerical results. In this work, the verification and validation study were performed for the heat transfer model of the AGREE code using the HENDEL experiment and the numerical benchmarks of selected conceptual problems. The results of the present work show that the heat transfer model of AGREE is accurate and reliable for prismatic fuel blocks. Further validation of AGREE is in progress for a whole reactor problem using the HTTR safety test data such as control rod withdrawal tests and loss-of-forced convection tests.

  17. FDA 2011 process validation guidance: lifecycle compliance model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Cliff

    2014-01-01

    This article has been written as a contribution to the industry's efforts in migrating from a document-driven to a data-driven compliance mindset. A combination of target product profile, control engineering, and general sum principle techniques is presented as the basis of a simple but scalable lifecycle compliance model in support of modernized process validation. Unit operations and significant variables occupy pole position within the model, documentation requirements being treated as a derivative or consequence of the modeling process. The quality system is repositioned as a subordinate of system quality, this being defined as the integral of related "system qualities". The article represents a structured interpretation of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's 2011 Guidance for Industry on Process Validation and is based on the author's educational background and his manufacturing/consulting experience in the validation field. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration's Guidance for Industry on Process Validation (2011) provides a wide-ranging and rigorous outline of compliant drug manufacturing requirements relative to its 20(th) century predecessor (1987). Its declared focus is patient safety, and it identifies three inter-related (and obvious) stages of the compliance lifecycle. Firstly, processes must be designed, both from a technical and quality perspective. Secondly, processes must be qualified, providing evidence that the manufacturing facility is fully "roadworthy" and fit for its intended purpose. Thirdly, processes must be verified, meaning that commercial batches must be monitored to ensure that processes remain in a state of control throughout their lifetime.

  18. A Variable-Resolution Stretched-Grid General Circulation Model and Data Assimilation System with Multiple Areas of Interest: Studying the Anomalous Regional Climate Events of 1998

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.; Takacs, Lawrence; Govindaraju, Ravi C.; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The new stretched-grid design with multiple (four) areas of interest, one at each global quadrant, is implemented into both a stretched-grid GCM (general circulation model) and a stretched-grid data assimilation system (DAS). The four areas of interest include: the U.S./Northern Mexico, the El Nino area/Central South America, India/China, and the Eastern Indian Ocean/Australia. Both the stretched-grid GCM and DAS annual (November 1997 through December 1998) integrations are performed with 50 km regional resolution. The efficient regional down-scaling to mesoscales is obtained for each of the four areas of interest while the consistent interactions between regional and global scales and the high quality of global circulation, are preserved. This is the advantage of the stretched-grid approach. The global variable resolution DAS incorporating the stretched-grid GCM has been developed and tested as an efficient tool for producing regional analyses and diagnostics with enhanced mesoscale resolution. The anomalous regional climate events of 1998 that occurred over the U.S., Mexico, South America, China, India, African Sahel, and Australia are investigated in both simulation and data assimilation modes. Tree assimilated products are also used, along with gauge precipitation data, for validating the simulation results. The obtained results show that the stretched-grid GCM and DAS are capable of producing realistic high quality simulated and assimilated products at mesoscale resolution for regional climate studies and applications.

  19. Aerosol indirect effects – general circulation model intercomparison and evaluation with satellite data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quaas, Johannes; Ming, Yi; Menon, Surabi; Takemura, T.; Wang, Minghuai; Penner, Joyce E.; Gettelman, A.; Lohmann, U.; Bellouin, N.; Boucher, Olivier; Sayer, Andrew M.; Thomas, Gareth E.; McComiskey, A.; Feingold, G.; Hoose, Corinna; Kristjansson, J. E.; Liu, Xiaohong; Balkanski, Y.; Donner, Leo J.; Ginoux, P.; Stier, P.; Grandey, B.; Feichter, J.; Sednev, Igor; Bauer, Susanne E.; Koch, D.; Grainger, Roy G.; Kirkevag, A.; Iversen, T.; Seland, O.; Easter, Richard C.; Ghan, Steven J.; Rasch, Philip J.; Morrison, H.; Lamarque, J. F.; Iacono, Michael J.; Kinne, Stefan; Schulz, M.

    2009-11-16

    Aerosol indirect effects continue to constitute one of the most important uncertainties for anthropogenic climate perturbations. Within the international AEROCOM initiative, the representatio