WorldWideScience

Sample records for circulation models validation

  1. Seasonal overturning circulation in the Red Sea: 1. Model validation and summer circulation

    KAUST Repository

    Yao, Fengchao

    2014-04-01

    The overturning circulation in the Red Sea exhibits a distinct seasonally reversing pattern and is studied using high-resolution MIT general circulation model simulations. In the first part of this study, the vertical and horizontal structure of the summer overturning circulation and its dynamical mechanisms are presented from the model results. The seasonal water exchange in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb is successfully simulated, and the structures of the intruding subsurface Gulf of Aden intermediate water are in good agreement with summer observations in 2011. The model results suggest that the summer overturning circulation is driven by the combined effect of the shoaling of the thermocline in the Gulf of Aden resulting from remote winds in the Arabian Sea and an upward surface slope from the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden set up by local surface winds in the Red Sea. In addition, during late summer two processes associated, respectively, with latitudinally differential heating and increased salinity in the southern Red Sea act together to cause the reversal of the contrast of the vertical density structure and the cessation of the summer overturning circulation. Dynamically, the subsurface northward pressure gradient force is mainly balanced by vertical viscosity resulting from the vertical shear and boundary friction in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb. Unlike some previous studies, the three-layer summer exchange flows in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb do not appear to be hydraulically controlled.

  2. Validation of the BASALT model for simulating off-axis hydrothermal circulation in oceanic crust

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farahat, Navah X.; Archer, David; Abbot, Dorian S.

    2017-08-01

    Fluid recharge and discharge between the deep ocean and the porous upper layer of off-axis oceanic crust tends to concentrate in small volumes of rock, such as seamounts and fractures, that are unimpeded by low-permeability sediments. Basement structure, sediment burial, heat flow, and other regional characteristics of off-axis hydrothermal systems appear to produce considerable diversity of circulation behaviors. Circulation of seawater and seawater-derived fluids controls the extent of fluid-rock interaction, resulting in significant geochemical impacts. However, the primary regional characteristics that control how seawater is distributed within upper oceanic crust are still poorly understood. In this paper we present the details of the two-dimensional (2-D) BASALT (Basement Activity Simulated At Low Temperatures) numerical model of heat and fluid transport in an off-axis hydrothermal system. This model is designed to simulate a wide range of conditions in order to explore the dominant controls on circulation. We validate the BASALT model's ability to reproduce observations by configuring it to represent a thoroughly studied transect of the Juan de Fuca Ridge eastern flank. The results demonstrate that including series of narrow, ridge-parallel fractures as subgrid features produces a realistic circulation scenario at the validation site. In future projects, a full reactive transport version of the validated BASALT model will be used to explore geochemical fluxes in a variety of off-axis hydrothermal environments.

  3. On the validation of a realistic model of mesoscale coastal circulation in the Western Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubert, Jesus; Cordeiro, Nuno; Nolasco, Rita

    2010-05-01

    Realistic simulations of the circulation off the Western Iberian Peninsula, for the period 2001-2009 are compared against satellite observations of sea surface temperature (SST), for the summer upwelling season. This was done by means of comparisons of climatological means of monthly sst, standard deviation, and monthly anomalies obtained from satellite, and from the numerical model. Also, the observed mesoscale structures like filaments, are also compared with those obtained with the model, for the same period. The model consists in a ROMS-AGRIF configuration at ~3km resolution, forced with 6h NCEP2 reanalysis and Quikscat forcing for winds for the referred period, in the presence of river inflow for the main rivers of the region. The boundary conditions are obtained by offline nesting from a configuration of a larger domain, forced in the same way, and offshore Levitus climatological boundaries. The filament characterization for the satellite data, and the outputs of the numerical model, was done based on an automatic data treatment, which allows to study the filaments seasonal and interannual variability for the studied period. It was also made a study and a discussion of the surface climatology based on the satellite images and the model, in order to characterize, the surface temperature field, the monthly means, standard deviation and the deviations from the mean. In order to explain the observed and modelled anomalies, NCEP winds reanalysis are used in several points in the studied domain. The main purpose of this study is a step forward in the validation of the numerical configuration resolving mesoscale in the Western Iberian Peninsula, and to is to determine whether or not the model is able to reproduce the observed mesoscale features, the monthly anomalies of sst, and the monthly climatology.

  4. A two-time-level split-explicit ocean circulation model (MASNUM) and its validation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HAN Lei

    2014-01-01

    A two-time-level, three-dimensional numerical ocean circulation model (named MASNUM) was estab-lished with a two-level, single-step Eulerian forward-backward time-differencing scheme. A mathematical model of large-scale oceanic motions was based on the terrain-following coordinated, Boussinesq, Reyn-olds-averaged primitive equations of ocean dynamics. A simple but very practical Eulerian forward-back-ward method was adopted to replace the most preferred leapfrog scheme as the time-differencing method for both barotropic and baroclinic modes. The forward-backward method is of second-order of accuracy, computationally efficient by requiring only one function evaluation per time step, and free of the compu-tational mode inherent in the three-level schemes. This method is superior to the leapfrog scheme in that the maximum time step of stability is twice as large as that of the leapfrog scheme in staggered meshes thus the computational efficiency could be doubled. A spatial smoothing method was introduced to control the nonlinear instability in the numerical integration. An ideal numerical experiment simulating the propa-gation of the equatorial Rossby soliton was performed to test the amplitude and phase error of this new model. The performance of this circulation model was further verified with a regional (northwest Pacific) and a quasi-global (global ocean simulation with the Arctic Ocean excluded) simulation experiments. These two numerical experiments show fairly good agreement with the observations. The maximum time step of stability in these two experiments were also investigated and compared between this model and that model which adopts the leapfrog scheme.

  5. Validation of Atmospheric Dynamics (VADY) - representation of circulation types/dynamical modes in the decadal-prediction model system of MPI-ESM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Benjamin; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Beck, Christoph; Philipp, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    The climate research program "Medium-range Climate Predictions" (MiKlip), funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research in Germany (BMBF), has the aim to improve a climate model system (MPI-ESM) in such a way that it can provide reliable decadal predictions of climate, including extreme weather events. A substantial part of the development process is a comprehensive model validation. Within MiKlip, it includes comparisons of model simulations and observations in order to allow statements about the performance of the model and to give particular recommendations for the further development of the model. The research project "Validation of Atmospheric Dynamics" (VADY), conducted by the cooperation partners "Institute of Geography at the University of Augsburg" (IGUA) and the "German Aerospace Centre" (DLR), contributes to model validation within MiKlip with a special focus on atmospheric waves (DLR) and circulation dynamics (IGUA). Within the framework of VADY, DLR validates the representation of atmospheric waves on different levels and scales based on suitable activity indices (e.g. the so-called large-scale dynamical activity index (LDAI), which is a measure for the activity of planetary waves). The focus of IGUA is on the model validation with respect to the representation of atmospheric circulation types, dynamical modes and the teleconnectivity of the atmospheric circulation. The present contribution provides results of the model validation concerning circulation types/dynamical modes. Results are shown for both the frequency of occurrence and internal characteristics (e. g. persistence or intensity), and for different classification methods (e. g. based on PCA or clustering techniques). The representation of circulation types/dynamical modes will be compared for different generations of the MPI-ESM decadal-prediction model (baseline0, baseline1, prototype) in order to clarify both advances and limitations in the development of the model. Furthermore

  6. Impulse-response function of splanchnic circulation with model-independent constraints: theory and experimental validation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munk, O L; Keiding, S; Bass, L

    2003-01-01

    Modeling physiological processes using tracer kinetic methods requires knowledge of the time course of the tracer concentration in blood supplying the organ. For liver studies, however, inaccessibility of the portal vein makes direct measurement of the hepatic dual-input function impossible...... sampling in aorta and portal vein were made in 13 anesthetized pigs following inhalation of intravascular [15O]CO or injections of diffusible 3-O-[11C]methylglucose (MG). The parameters of the impulse-response function have a physiological interpretation in terms of the distribution of washout constants...... and are mathematically equivalent to the mean transit time (T) and standard deviation of transit times. The results include estimates of mean transit times from the aorta to the portal vein in pigs: T = 0.35 +/- 0.05 min for CO and 1.7 +/- 0.1 min for MG. The prediction of the portal venous time-activity curve benefits...

  7. Validation of the RELAP5 code for the modeling of flashing-induced instabilities under natural-circulation conditions using experimental data from the CIRCUS test facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kozmenkov, Y. [Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf e.V. (FZD), Institute of Safety Research, P.O.B. 510119, D-01324 Dresden (Germany); Institute of Physics and Power Engineering, Obninsk (Russian Federation); Rohde, U., E-mail: U.Rohde@hzdr.de [Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf e.V. (FZD), Institute of Safety Research, P.O.B. 510119, D-01324 Dresden (Germany); Manera, A. [Paul Scherrer Institute (Switzerland)

    2012-02-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We report about the simulation of flashing-induced instabilities in natural circulation systems. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Flashing-induced instabilities are of relevance for operation of pool-type reactors of small power at low pressure. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The RELAP5 code is validated against measurement data from natural circulation experiments. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The magnitude and frequency of the oscillations were reproduced in good agreement with the measurement data. - Abstract: This paper reports on the use of the RELAP5 code for the simulation of flashing-induced instabilities in natural circulation systems. The RELAP 5 code is intended to be used for the simulation of transient processes in the Russian RUTA reactor concept operating at atmospheric pressure with forced convection of coolant. However, during transient processes, natural circulation with flashing-induced instabilities might occur. The RELAP5 code is validated against measurement data from natural circulation experiments performed within the framework of a European project (NACUSP) on the CIRCUS facility. The facility, built at the Delft University of Technology in The Netherlands, is a water/steam 1:1 height-scaled loop of a typical natural-circulation-cooled BWR. It was shown that the RELAP5 code is able to model all relevant phenomena related to flashing induced instabilities. The magnitude and frequency of the oscillations were reproduced in a good agreement with the measurement data. The close correspondence to the experiments was reached by detailed modeling of all components of the CIRCUS facility including the heat exchanger, the buffer vessel and the steam dome at the top of the facility.

  8. Modelled Circulation In Storfjorden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skogseth, R.; Asplin, L.

    The model area Storfjorden is situated between the islands Spitsbergen, Barentsöya and Edgeöya at the Svalbard Archipelago. The entrance of Storfjorden is defined by a shallow bank Storfjordbanken and some small islands Tusenöyane in southeast, and by an 115m deep sill at about 76 45' N in the south. Maximum depth in Storfjorden is 190m, which is surrounded by gradually shallower shelves in the north, the east and southeast. A steep bottom slope is present on the western side of Storfjorden. He- leysundet and Freemansundet, two sounds between respectively Spitsbergen and Bar- entsöya, and Barentsöya and Edgeöya, define two narrow and shallow entrances in the north and northeast connecting Storfjorden with the northwestern Barents Sea. Strong tidal currents exist in Heleysundet (4-5ms-1) and Freemansundet (2-3ms-1), but the general circulation in Storfjorden is not well known. The coastal current in Storfjor- den is cyclonic directed into Storfjorden south of Edgeöya from the East Spitsbergen Current and out of Storfjorden south of Spitsbergen where it is called Sørkappstrøm- men. A three-dimensional sigma layered numerical ocean model called Bergen Ocean Model (BOM) was used to simulate the circulation in Storfjorden with Freemansundet opened. Two simulations were carried out, one with heat flux (100 Wm-2) and one without heat flux from the ocean to the atmosphere. The heat flux was applied only in the proper fjord area north of the sill and not outside as a crude approximation of the effects of a polynya in the sea ice cover during winter. Both simulations had a 4km horizontal resolution and 21 sigma layers. The model is forced by winds (from the NCEP reanalyzed fields) and tides. Initial fields are from the DNMI/IMR climatol- ogy. The model simulation without heat flux gave a circulation heavily dependent on tidal forcing, showing strong tidal currents up to 2ms-1 in Freemansundet, between Tusenöyane and on Storfjordbanken southwest of Edgeöya. Earlier

  9. A Study of Longwave Radiation Codes for Climate Studies: Validation with ARM Observations and Tests in General Circulation Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert G. Ellingson

    2004-09-28

    One specific goal of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) program is to improve the treatment of radiative transfer in General Circulation Models (GCMs) under clear-sky, general overcast and broken cloud conditions. Our project was geared to contribute to this goal by attacking major problems associated with one of the dominant radiation components of the problem --longwave radiation. The primary long-term project objectives were to: (1) develop an optimum longwave radiation model for use in GCMs that has been calibrated with state-of-the-art observations for clear and cloudy conditions, and (2) determine how the longwave radiative forcing with an improved algorithm contributes relatively in a GCM when compared to shortwave radiative forcing, sensible heating, thermal advection and convection. The approach has been to build upon existing models in an iterative, predictive fashion. We focused on comparing calculations from a set of models with operationally observed data for clear, overcast and broken cloud conditions. The differences found through the comparisons and physical insights have been used to develop new models, most of which have been tested with new data. Our initial GCM studies used existing GCMs to study the climate model-radiation sensitivity problem. Although this portion of our initial plans was curtailed midway through the project, we anticipate that the eventual outcome of this approach will provide both a better longwave radiative forcing algorithm and from our better understanding of how longwave radiative forcing influences the model equilibrium climate, how improvements in climate prediction using this algorithm can be achieved.

  10. Roadmap for cardiovascular circulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safaei, Soroush; Bradley, Christopher P; Suresh, Vinod; Mithraratne, Kumar; Muller, Alexandre; Ho, Harvey; Ladd, David; Hellevik, Leif R; Omholt, Stig W; Chase, J Geoffrey; Müller, Lucas O; Watanabe, Sansuke M; Blanco, Pablo J; de Bono, Bernard; Hunter, Peter J

    2016-12-01

    Computational models of many aspects of the mammalian cardiovascular circulation have been developed. Indeed, along with orthopaedics, this area of physiology is one that has attracted much interest from engineers, presumably because the equations governing blood flow in the vascular system are well understood and can be solved with well-established numerical techniques. Unfortunately, there have been only a few attempts to create a comprehensive public domain resource for cardiovascular researchers. In this paper we propose a roadmap for developing an open source cardiovascular circulation model. The model should be registered to the musculo-skeletal system. The computational infrastructure for the cardiovascular model should provide for near real-time computation of blood flow and pressure in all parts of the body. The model should deal with vascular beds in all tissues, and the computational infrastructure for the model should provide links into CellML models of cell function and tissue function. In this work we review the literature associated with 1D blood flow modelling in the cardiovascular system, discuss model encoding standards, software and a model repository. We then describe the coordinate systems used to define the vascular geometry, derive the equations and discuss the implementation of these coupled equations in the open source computational software OpenCMISS. Finally, some preliminary results are presented and plans outlined for the next steps in the development of the model, the computational software and the graphical user interface for accessing the model. © 2016 The Authors. The Journal of Physiology © 2016 The Physiological Society.

  11. A study of longwave radiation codes for climate studies: Validation with ARM observations and tests in general circulation models. Final report, September 15, 1990--October 31, 1994

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellingson, R.G.; Baer, F.

    1998-09-01

    DOE has launched a major initiative -- the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Program -- directed at improving the parameterization of the physics governing cloud and radiative processes in general circulation models (GCMs). One specific goal of ARM is to improve the treatment of radiative transfer in GCMs under clear-sky, general overcast and broken cloud conditions. In 1990, the authors proposed to contribute to this goal by attacking major problems connected with one of the dominant radiation components of the problem -- longwave radiation. In particular, their long-term research goals are to: develop an optimum longwave radiation model for use in GCMs that has been calibrated with state-of-the-art observations, assess the impact of the longwave radiative forcing in a GCM, determine the sensitivity of a GCM to the radiative model used in it, and determine how the longwave radiative forcing contributes relatively when compared to shortwave radiative forcing, sensible heating, thermal advection and expansion.

  12. Modeling biomass gasification in circulating fluidized beds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, Qi

    In this thesis, the modeling of biomass gasification in circulating fluidized beds was studied. The hydrodynamics of a circulating fluidized bed operating on biomass particles were first investigated, both experimentally and numerically. Then a comprehensive mathematical model was presented to predict the overall performance of a 1.2 MWe biomass gasification and power generation plant. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to test its response to several gasifier operating conditions. The model was validated using the experimental results obtained from the plant and two other circulating fluidized bed biomass gasifiers (CFBBGs). Finally, an ASPEN PLUS simulation model of biomass gasification was presented based on minimization of the Gibbs free energy of the reaction system at chemical equilibrium. Hydrodynamics plays a crucial role in defining the performance of gas-solid circulating fluidized beds (CFBs). A 2-dimensional mathematical model was developed considering the hydrodynamic behavior of CFB gasifiers. In the modeling, the CFB riser was divided into two regions: a dense region at the bottom and a dilute region at the top of the riser. Kunii and Levenspiel (1991)'s model was adopted to express the vertical solids distribution with some other assumptions. Radial distributions of bed voidage were taken into account in the upper zone by using Zhang et al. (1991)'s correlation. For model validation purposes, a cold model CFB was employed, in which sawdust was transported with air as the fluidizing agent. A comprehensive mathematical model was developed to predict the overall performance of a 1.2 MWe biomass gasification and power generation demonstration plant in China. Hydrodynamics as well as chemical reaction kinetics were considered. The fluidized bed riser was divided into two distinct sections: (a) a dense region at the bottom of the bed where biomass undergoes mainly heterogeneous reactions and (b) a dilute region at the top where most of homogeneous

  13. A blood circulation model for reference man

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leggett, R.W.; Eckerman, K.F. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Health Sciences Research Div.; Williams, L.R. [Indiana Univ., South Bend, IN (United States). Div. of Liberal Arts and Sciences

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes a dynamic blood circulation model that predicts the movement and gradual dispersal of a bolus of material in the circulation after its intravascular injection into an adult human. The main purpose of the model is to improve the dosimetry of internally deposited radionuclides that decay in the circulation to a significant extent. The total blood volume is partitioned into the blood contents of 24 separate organs or tissues, right heart chambers, left heart chambers, pulmonary circulation, arterial outflow to the systemic tissues (aorta and large arteries), and venous return from the systemic tissues (large veins). As a compromise between physical reality and computational simplicity, the circulation of blood is viewed as a system of first-order transfers between blood pools, with the delay time depending on the mean transit time across the pool. The model allows consideration of incomplete, tissue-dependent extraction of material during passage through the circulation and return of material from tissues to plasma.

  14. Validation of simulation models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rehman, Muniza; Pedersen, Stig Andur

    2012-01-01

    In philosophy of science, the interest for computational models and simulations has increased heavily during the past decades. Different positions regarding the validity of models have emerged but the views have not succeeded in capturing the diversity of validation methods. The wide variety...... of models has been somewhat narrow-minded reducing the notion of validation to establishment of truth. This article puts forward the diversity in applications of simulation models that demands a corresponding diversity in the notion of validation....... of models with regards to their purpose, character, field of application and time dimension inherently calls for a similar diversity in validation approaches. A classification of models in terms of the mentioned elements is presented and used to shed light on possible types of validation leading...

  15. Model Validation Status Review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    E.L. Hardin

    2001-11-28

    The primary objective for the Model Validation Status Review was to perform a one-time evaluation of model validation associated with the analysis/model reports (AMRs) containing model input to total-system performance assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain site recommendation (SR). This review was performed in response to Corrective Action Request BSC-01-C-01 (Clark 2001, Krisha 2001) pursuant to Quality Assurance review findings of an adverse trend in model validation deficiency. The review findings in this report provide the following information which defines the extent of model validation deficiency and the corrective action needed: (1) AMRs that contain or support models are identified, and conversely, for each model the supporting documentation is identified. (2) The use for each model is determined based on whether the output is used directly for TSPA-SR, or for screening (exclusion) of features, events, and processes (FEPs), and the nature of the model output. (3) Two approaches are used to evaluate the extent to which the validation for each model is compliant with AP-3.10Q (Analyses and Models). The approaches differ in regard to whether model validation is achieved within individual AMRs as originally intended, or whether model validation could be readily achieved by incorporating information from other sources. (4) Recommendations are presented for changes to the AMRs, and additional model development activities or data collection, that will remedy model validation review findings, in support of licensing activities. The Model Validation Status Review emphasized those AMRs that support TSPA-SR (CRWMS M&O 2000bl and 2000bm). A series of workshops and teleconferences was held to discuss and integrate the review findings. The review encompassed 125 AMRs (Table 1) plus certain other supporting documents and data needed to assess model validity. The AMRs were grouped in 21 model areas representing the modeling of processes affecting the natural and

  16. Correcting circulation biases in a lower-resolution global general circulation model with data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canter, Martin; Barth, Alexander; Beckers, Jean-Marie

    2016-12-01

    In this study, we aim at developing a new method of bias correction using data assimilation. This method is based on the stochastic forcing of a model to correct bias by directly adding an additional source term into the model equations. This method is presented and tested first with a twin experiment on a fully controlled Lorenz '96 model. It is then applied to the lower-resolution global circulation NEMO-LIM2 model, with both a twin experiment and a real case experiment. Sea surface height observations are used to create a forcing to correct the poorly located and estimated currents. Validation is then performed throughout the use of other variables such as sea surface temperature and salinity. Results show that the method is able to consistently correct part of the model bias. The bias correction term is presented and is consistent with the limitations of the global circulation model causing bias on the oceanic currents.

  17. Correcting circulation biases in a lower-resolution global general circulation model with data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canter, Martin; Barth, Alexander; Beckers, Jean-Marie

    2017-02-01

    In this study, we aim at developing a new method of bias correction using data assimilation. This method is based on the stochastic forcing of a model to correct bias by directly adding an additional source term into the model equations. This method is presented and tested first with a twin experiment on a fully controlled Lorenz '96 model. It is then applied to the lower-resolution global circulation NEMO-LIM2 model, with both a twin experiment and a real case experiment. Sea surface height observations are used to create a forcing to correct the poorly located and estimated currents. Validation is then performed throughout the use of other variables such as sea surface temperature and salinity. Results show that the method is able to consistently correct part of the model bias. The bias correction term is presented and is consistent with the limitations of the global circulation model causing bias on the oceanic currents.

  18. EOP MIT General Circulation Model (MITgcm)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data contains a regional implementation of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) at a 1-km spatial resolution for the...

  19. DEVELOPMENT OF WATER CIRCULATION MODEL INCLUDING IRRIGATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotsuki, Shunji; Tanaka, Kenji; Kojiri, Toshiharu; Hamaguchi, Toshio

    It is well known that since agricultural water withdrawal has much affect on water circulation system, accurate analysis of river discharge or water balance are difficult with less regard for it. In this study, water circulation model composed of land surface model and distributed runoff model is proposed at 10km 10km resolution. In this model, irrigation water, which is estimated with land surface model, is introduced to river discharge analysis. The model is applied to the Chao Phraya River in Thailand, and reproduced seasonal water balance. Additionally, the discharge on dry season simulated with the model is improved as a result of including irrigation. Since the model, which is basically developed from global data sets, simulated seasonal change of river discharge, it can be suggested that our model has university to other river basins.

  20. Application of Improved Radiation Modeling to General Circulation Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michael J Iacono

    2011-04-07

    This research has accomplished its primary objectives of developing accurate and efficient radiation codes, validating them with measurements and higher resolution models, and providing these advancements to the global modeling community to enhance the treatment of cloud and radiative processes in weather and climate prediction models. A critical component of this research has been the development of the longwave and shortwave broadband radiative transfer code for general circulation model (GCM) applications, RRTMG, which is based on the single-column reference code, RRTM, also developed at AER. RRTMG is a rigorously tested radiation model that retains a considerable level of accuracy relative to higher resolution models and measurements despite the performance enhancements that have made it possible to apply this radiation code successfully to global dynamical models. This model includes the radiative effects of all significant atmospheric gases, and it treats the absorption and scattering from liquid and ice clouds and aerosols. RRTMG also includes a statistical technique for representing small-scale cloud variability, such as cloud fraction and the vertical overlap of clouds, which has been shown to improve cloud radiative forcing in global models. This development approach has provided a direct link from observations to the enhanced radiative transfer provided by RRTMG for application to GCMs. Recent comparison of existing climate model radiation codes with high resolution models has documented the improved radiative forcing capability provided by RRTMG, especially at the surface, relative to other GCM radiation models. Due to its high accuracy, its connection to observations, and its computational efficiency, RRTMG has been implemented operationally in many national and international dynamical models to provide validated radiative transfer for improving weather forecasts and enhancing the prediction of global climate change.

  1. Validated dynamic flow model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Torben

    2011-01-01

    The purpose with this deliverable 2.5 is to use fresh experimental data for validation and selection of a flow model to be used for control design in WP3-4. Initially the idea was to investigate the models developed in WP2. However, in the project it was agreed to include and focus on a additive...... model turns out not to be useful for prediction of the flow. Moreover, standard Box Jenkins model structures and multiple output auto regressive models proves to be superior as they can give useful predictions of the flow....

  2. Development of a hydraulic model of the human systemic circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharp, M. K.; Dharmalingham, R. K.

    1999-01-01

    Physical and numeric models of the human circulation are constructed for a number of objectives, including studies and training in physiologic control, interpretation of clinical observations, and testing of prosthetic cardiovascular devices. For many of these purposes it is important to quantitatively validate the dynamic response of the models in terms of the input impedance (Z = oscillatory pressure/oscillatory flow). To address this need, the authors developed an improved physical model. Using a computer study, the authors first identified the configuration of lumped parameter elements in a model of the systemic circulation; the result was a good match with human aortic input impedance with a minimum number of elements. Design, construction, and testing of a hydraulic model analogous to the computer model followed. Numeric results showed that a three element model with two resistors and one compliance produced reasonable matching without undue complication. The subsequent analogous hydraulic model included adjustable resistors incorporating a sliding plate to vary the flow area through a porous material and an adjustable compliance consisting of a variable-volume air chamber. The response of the hydraulic model compared favorably with other circulation models.

  3. 2-D Circulation Control Airfoil Benchmark Experiments Intended for CFD Code Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Englar, Robert J.; Jones, Gregory S.; Allan, Brian G.; Lin, Johb C.

    2009-01-01

    A current NASA Research Announcement (NRA) project being conducted by Georgia Tech Research Institute (GTRI) personnel and NASA collaborators includes the development of Circulation Control (CC) blown airfoils to improve subsonic aircraft high-lift and cruise performance. The emphasis of this program is the development of CC active flow control concepts for both high-lift augmentation, drag control, and cruise efficiency. A collaboration in this project includes work by NASA research engineers, whereas CFD validation and flow physics experimental research are part of NASA s systematic approach to developing design and optimization tools for CC applications to fixed-wing aircraft. The design space for CESTOL type aircraft is focusing on geometries that depend on advanced flow control technologies that include Circulation Control aerodynamics. The ability to consistently predict advanced aircraft performance requires improvements in design tools to include these advanced concepts. Validation of these tools will be based on experimental methods applied to complex flows that go beyond conventional aircraft modeling techniques. This paper focuses on recent/ongoing benchmark high-lift experiments and CFD efforts intended to provide 2-D CFD validation data sets related to NASA s Cruise Efficient Short Take Off and Landing (CESTOL) study. Both the experimental data and related CFD predictions are discussed.

  4. Warm World Ocean Thermohaline Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimov, N.; Zimov, S. A.

    2014-12-01

    Modern day ocean circulation is dominated by thermal convection with cold waters subsiding in the Northern Atlantic, filling the ocean interior with cold and heavy water. However, ocean circulation diminished during the last glaciation and consequently the downwelling of the cold. Therefore interior ocean water temperatures must have been affected by other mechanisms which are negligible in the current state. We propose that the submergence of highly saline water from warm seas with high rates of evaporation (like the Red or Mediterranean Sea) was a major factor controlling ocean circulation during the last glaciation. Even today, waters in these poorly connected seas are the heaviest waters in the World ocean (1.029 g/cm3). The second mechanism affecting ocean temperature is the geothermal heat flux. With no heat exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean, geothermal heat flux through the ocean floor is capable of increasing ocean temperature by tens of degrees C over a 100 thousand year glacial cycle. To support these hypotheses we present an ocean box model that describes thermohaline circulation in the World Ocean. According to the model parameters, all water circulation is driven by the water density gradient. Boxes include high-latitude seas, high salinity seas, surface ocean, glaciers, and rift and lateral zones of the ocean interior. External heat sources are radiative forcing, affected by Milankovich cycles, and geothermal heat flux. Additionally this model accounts for the heat produced by organic rain decay. Taking all input parameters close to currently observed values, the model manages to recreate the glacial-interglacial cycles. During the glacial periods only haline circulation takes place, the ocean is strongly stratified, and the interior ocean accumulates heat while high-latitudes accumulate ice. 112,000 years after glaciation starts, water density on the ocean bottom becomes equal to the density of water in high-latitude seas, strong thermal

  5. Parallel Computing of Ocean General Circulation Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    This paper discusses the parallel computing of the thirdgeneration Ocea n General Circulation Model (OGCM) from the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Mo deling for Atmospheric Science and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG),Institute of Atmosphere Physics(IAP). Meanwhile, several optimization strategies for paralle l computing of OGCM (POGCM) on Scalable Shared Memory Multiprocessor (S2MP) are presented. Using Message Passing Interface (MPI), we obtain super linear speedup on SGI Origin 2000 for parallel OGCM(POGCM) after optimization.

  6. Thermospheric circulation model in meridian plane (I)——Storm time variations in thermal status and circulation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    萧佐; 王劲松

    2000-01-01

    A thermospheric circulation model in meridian plane (TCMMP) is introduced and a case study on the variations in night side thermosphere caused by energy deposition in auroral oval during a single magnetic substorm is expounded. Calculations show that TCMMP can correctly reflect the thermospheric thermal status and circulation patterns during storm time and the results are in agreement with previous theoretical and observational ones. This paper and other works also show the validity of TCMMP in researches on medium and large scale changes in mid- and low latitude thermosphere. Results also support strongly some related theory about the cause of ionospheric storms, expecially the negative phase storms.

  7. Model validation, science and application

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Builtjes, P.J.H.; Flossmann, A.

    1998-01-01

    Over the last years there is a growing interest to try to establish a proper validation of atmospheric chemistry-transport (ATC) models. Model validation deals with the comparison of model results with experimental data, and in this way adresses both model uncertainty and uncertainty in, and adequac

  8. Modeling the ocean circulation in the Bering Sea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HU Haoguo; WANG Jia

    2008-01-01

    With parameterized wave mixing, the circulation and the tidal current in the Bering Sea were simulated simultaneously using the three-dimensional Princeton Ocean Model. The simulated circulation pattern in the deep basin is relatively stable,cyclonic, and has little seasonal change. The Bering Slope Current between 200-1000m isobaths was estimated to be 5 Sv in volume transport. The Kamchatka Current was estimated to be 20 Sv off the Kamchatka Peninsula. The Bering shelf circulations vary with season, driven mainly by wind. These features are consistent with historical estimates. A counter current was captured flowing southeastward approximately along the 200 m isobath of the Bering Slope, opposite to the northwestward Bering Slope Current, which needs to be validated by observations. An upwelling current is located in the shelf break (120-1000 m) area, which may imply the vertical advection of nutrients for supporting the Bering Sea Green Belt seasonal plankton blooms in the breakslope area. The Bering Slope Current is located in a downwelling area.

  9. Climatology of the HOPE-G global ocean general circulation model - Sea ice general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Legutke, S. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Maier-Reimer, E. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

    1999-12-01

    The HOPE-G global ocean general circulation model (OGCM) climatology, obtained in a long-term forced integration is described. HOPE-G is a primitive-equation z-level ocean model which contains a dynamic-thermodynamic sea-ice model. It is formulated on a 2.8 grid with increased resolution in low latitudes in order to better resolve equatorial dynamics. The vertical resolution is 20 layers. The purpose of the integration was both to investigate the models ability to reproduce the observed general circulation of the world ocean and to obtain an initial state for coupled atmosphere - ocean - sea-ice climate simulations. The model was driven with daily mean data of a 15-year integration of the atmosphere general circulation model ECHAM4, the atmospheric component in later coupled runs. Thereby, a maximum of the flux variability that is expected to appear in coupled simulations is included already in the ocean spin-up experiment described here. The model was run for more than 2000 years until a quasi-steady state was achieved. It reproduces the major current systems and the main features of the so-called conveyor belt circulation. The observed distribution of water masses is reproduced reasonably well, although with a saline bias in the intermediate water masses and a warm bias in the deep and bottom water of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. The model underestimates the meridional transport of heat in the Atlantic Ocean. The simulated heat transport in the other basins, though, is in good agreement with observations. (orig.)

  10. Climatology of the HOPE-G global ocean general circulation model - Sea ice general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Legutke, S. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Maier-Reimer, E. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

    1999-12-01

    The HOPE-G global ocean general circulation model (OGCM) climatology, obtained in a long-term forced integration is described. HOPE-G is a primitive-equation z-level ocean model which contains a dynamic-thermodynamic sea-ice model. It is formulated on a 2.8 grid with increased resolution in low latitudes in order to better resolve equatorial dynamics. The vertical resolution is 20 layers. The purpose of the integration was both to investigate the models ability to reproduce the observed general circulation of the world ocean and to obtain an initial state for coupled atmosphere - ocean - sea-ice climate simulations. The model was driven with daily mean data of a 15-year integration of the atmosphere general circulation model ECHAM4, the atmospheric component in later coupled runs. Thereby, a maximum of the flux variability that is expected to appear in coupled simulations is included already in the ocean spin-up experiment described here. The model was run for more than 2000 years until a quasi-steady state was achieved. It reproduces the major current systems and the main features of the so-called conveyor belt circulation. The observed distribution of water masses is reproduced reasonably well, although with a saline bias in the intermediate water masses and a warm bias in the deep and bottom water of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. The model underestimates the meridional transport of heat in the Atlantic Ocean. The simulated heat transport in the other basins, though, is in good agreement with observations. (orig.)

  11. The epistemological status of general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loehle, Craig

    2017-05-01

    Forecasts of both likely anthropogenic effects on climate and consequent effects on nature and society are based on large, complex software tools called general circulation models (GCMs). Forecasts generated by GCMs have been used extensively in policy decisions related to climate change. However, the relation between underlying physical theories and results produced by GCMs is unclear. In the case of GCMs, many discretizations and approximations are made, and simulating Earth system processes is far from simple and currently leads to some results with unknown energy balance implications. Statistical testing of GCM forecasts for degree of agreement with data would facilitate assessment of fitness for use. If model results need to be put on an anomaly basis due to model bias, then both visual and quantitative measures of model fit depend strongly on the reference period used for normalization, making testing problematic. Epistemology is here applied to problems of statistical inference during testing, the relationship between the underlying physics and the models, the epistemic meaning of ensemble statistics, problems of spatial and temporal scale, the existence or not of an unforced null for climate fluctuations, the meaning of existing uncertainty estimates, and other issues. Rigorous reasoning entails carefully quantifying levels of uncertainty.

  12. Ocean circulation modeling by use of radar altimeter data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olbers, Dirk; Alpers, W.; Hasselmann, K.; Maier-Reimer, E.; Kase, R.; Krauss, W.; Siedler, G.; Willebrand, J.; Zahel, W.

    1991-01-01

    The project will investigate the use of radar altimetry (RA) data in the determination of the ocean circulation models. RA data will be used to verify prognostic experiments of the steady state and seasonal cycle of large-scale circulation models and the statistical steady state of eddy-resolving models. The data will serve as initial and update conditions in data assimilation experiments and as constraints in inverse calculations. The aim of the project is a better understanding of ocean physics, the determination and mapping of ocean currents, and a contribution to the establishment of ocean circulation models for climate studies. The goal of the project is to use satellite radar altimetry data for improving our knowledge of ocean circulation both in a descriptive sense and through the physics that govern the circulation state. The basic tool is a series of ocean circulation models. Depending on the model, different techniques will be applied to incorporate the RA data.

  13. Snow hydrology in a general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Susan; Roads, John O.; Glatzmaier, Gary

    1994-01-01

    A snow hydrology has been implemented in an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The snow hydrology consists of parameterizations of snowfall and snow cover fraction, a prognostic calculation of snow temperature, and a model of the snow mass and hydrologic budgets. Previously, only snow albedo had been included by a specified snow line. A 3-year GCM simulation with this now more complete surface hydrology is compared to a previous GCM control run with the specified snow line, as well as with observations. In particular, the authors discuss comparisons of the atmospheric and surface hydrologic budgets and the surface energy budget for U.S. and Canadian areas. The new snow hydrology changes the annual cycle of the surface moisture and energy budgets in the model. There is a noticeable shift in the runoff maximum from winter in the control run to spring in the snow hydrology run. A substantial amount of GCM winter precipitation is now stored in the seasonal snowpack. Snow cover also acts as an important insulating layer between the atmosphere and the ground. Wintertime soil temperatures are much higher in the snow hydrology experiment than in the control experiment. Seasonal snow cover is important for dampening large fluctuations in GCM continental skin temperature during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Snow depths and snow extent show good agreement with observations over North America. The geographic distribution of maximum depths is not as well simulated by the model due, in part, to the coarse resolution of the model. The patterns of runoff are qualitatively and quantitatively similar to observed patterns of streamflow averaged over the continental United States. The seasonal cycles of precipitation and evaporation are also reasonably well simulated by the model, although their magnitudes are larger than is observed. This is due, in part, to a cold bias in this model, which results in a dry model atmosphere and enhances the hydrologic cycle everywhere.

  14. Validation of a plant dynamics code for 4S - Test analysis of natural circulation behavior

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sebe, F.; Horie, H.; Matsumiya, H. [Toshiba Corporation, 8 Shinsugita-Cho, Isogo-Ku, Yokohama, 235-8523 (Japan); Fanning, T. H. [Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 S Cass Ave, Argonne, IL 60439 (United States)

    2012-07-01

    A plant transient dynamics code for a sodium-cooled fast reactor was developed by Toshiba. The code is used to evaluate the safety performance of Super-Safe, Small, and Simple reactor (4S) for Anticipated Operational Occurrences (AOOs), Design Basis Accident (DBA) and Beyond DBA (BDBA). The code is currently undergoing verification and validation (V and V). As one of the validation, test analysis of the Shutdown Heat Removal Test (SHRT)-17 performed in the Experimental Breeder Reactor (EBR)-II was conducted. The SHRT-17 is protected loss of flow test. The purpose of this validation is to confirm capability of the code to simulate natural circulation behavior of the plant. As a result, good agreements are shown between the analytical results and the measured data which were available from instrumented subassembly. The detailed validation result of the natural circulation behavior is described in this paper. (authors)

  15. Modeling the Middle Jurassic ocean circulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maura Brunetti

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available We present coupled ocean–sea-ice simulations of the Middle Jurassic (∼165 Ma when Laurasia and Gondwana began drifting apart and gave rise to the formation of the Atlantic Ocean. Since the opening of the Proto-Caribbean is not well constrained by geological records, configurations with and without an open connection between the Proto-Caribbean and Panthalassa are examined. We use a sea-floor bathymetry obtained by a recently developed three-dimensional (3D elevation model which compiles geological, palaeogeographical and geophysical data. Our original approach consists in coupling this elevation model, which is based on detailed reconstructions of oceanic realms, with a dynamical ocean circulation model. We find that the Middle Jurassic bathymetry of the Central Atlantic and Proto-Caribbean seaway only allows for a weak current of the order of 2 Sv in the upper 1000 m even if the system is open to the west. The effect of closing the western boundary of the Proto-Caribbean is to increase the transport related to barotropic gyres in the southern hemisphere and to change water properties, such as salinity, in the Neo-Tethys. Weak upwelling rates are found in the nascent Atlantic Ocean in the presence of this superficial current and we discuss their compatibility with deep-sea sedimentological records in this region.

  16. NAO-ocean circulation interactions in a coupled general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bellucci, A. [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna (Italy); Gualdi, S.; Navarra, A. [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Scoccimarro, E. [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

    2008-12-15

    The interplay between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the large scale ocean circulation is inspected in a twentieth century simulation conducted with a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model. Significant lead-lag covariance between oceanic and tropospheric variables suggests that the system supports a damped oscillatory mode involving an active ocean-atmosphere coupling, with a typical NAO-like space structure and a 5 years timescale, qualitatively consistent with a mid-latitude delayed oscillator paradigm. The two essential processes governing the oscillation are (1) a negative feedback between ocean gyre circulation and the high latitude SST meridional gradient and (2) a positive feedback between SST and the NAO. The atmospheric NAO pattern appears to have a weaker projection on the ocean meridional overturning, compared to the gyre circulation, which leads to a secondary role for the thermohaline circulation in driving the meridional heat transport, and thus the oscillatory mode. (orig.)

  17. Validating Animal Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Atanasova

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, I respond to the challenge raised against contemporary experimental neurobiology according to which the field is in a state of crisis because of the multiple experimental protocols employed in different laboratories and strengthening their reliability that presumably preclude the validity of neurobiological knowledge. I provide an alternative account of experimentation in neurobiology which makes sense of its experimental practices. I argue that maintaining a multiplicity of experimental protocols and strengthening their reliability are well justified and they foster rather than preclude the validity of neurobiological knowledge. Thus, their presence indicates thriving rather than crisis of experimental neurobiology.

  18. Conceptual models of the wind-driven and thermohaline circulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drijfhout, S.S.; Marshall, D.P.; Dijkstra, H.A.

    2013-01-01

    Conceptual models are a vital tool for understanding the processes that maintain the global ocean circulation, both in nature and in complex numerical ocean models. In this chapter we provide a broad overview of our conceptual understanding of the wind-driven circulation, the thermohaline

  19. Conceptual models of the wind-driven and thermohaline circulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drijfhout, S.S.; Marshall, D.P.; Dijkstra, H.A.

    2013-01-01

    Conceptual models are a vital tool for understanding the processes that maintain the global ocean circulation, both in nature and in complex numerical ocean models. In this chapter we provide a broad overview of our conceptual understanding of the wind-driven circulation, the thermohaline circulatio

  20. Conceptual models of the wind-driven and thermohaline circulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drijfhout, S.S.; Marshall, D.P.; Dijkstra, H.A.

    2013-01-01

    Conceptual models are a vital tool for understanding the processes that maintain the global ocean circulation, both in nature and in complex numerical ocean models. In this chapter we provide a broad overview of our conceptual understanding of the wind-driven circulation, the thermohaline circulatio

  1. Posterior Circulation Stroke: Animal Models and Mechanism of Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim Lekic

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Posterior circulation stroke refers to the vascular occlusion or bleeding, arising from the vertebrobasilar vasculature of the brain. Clinical studies show that individuals who experience posterior circulation stroke will develop significant brain injury, neurologic dysfunction, or death. Yet the therapeutic needs of this patient subpopulation remain largely unknown. Thus understanding the causative factors and the pathogenesis of brain damage is important, if posterior circulation stroke is to be prevented or treated. Appropriate animal models are necessary to achieve this understanding. This paper critically integrates the neurovascular and pathophysiological features gleaned from posterior circulation stroke animal models into clinical correlations.

  2. BIM-enabled Conceptual Modelling and Representation of Building Circulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Kook Lee

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes how a building information modelling (BIM-based approach for building circulation enables us to change the process of building design in terms of its computational representation and processes, focusing on the conceptual modelling and representation of circulation within buildings. BIM has been designed for use by several BIM authoring tools, in particular with the widely known interoperable industry foundation classes (IFCs, which follow an object-oriented data modelling methodology. Advances in BIM authoring tools, using space objects and their relations defined in an IFC’s schema, have made it possible to model, visualize and analyse circulation within buildings prior to their construction. Agent-based circulation has long been an interdisciplinary topic of research across several areas, including design computing, computer science, architectural morphology, human behaviour and environmental psychology. Such conventional approaches to building circulation are centred on navigational knowledge about built environments, and represent specific circulation paths and regulations. This paper, however, places emphasis on the use of ‘space objects’ in BIM-enabled design processes rather than on circulation agents, the latter of which are not defined in the IFCs’ schemas. By introducing and reviewing some associated research and projects, this paper also surveys how such a circulation representation is applicable to the analysis of building circulation-related rules.

  3. The validity of circulating microRNAs in oncology: five years of challenges and contradictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarry, J; Schadendorf, D; Greenwood, C; Spatz, A; van Kempen, L C

    2014-06-01

    MicroRNAs (miRNAs) in circulation have received an increasing amount of interest as potential minimal invasive diagnostic tools in oncology. Several diagnostic, prognostic and predictive signatures have been proposed for a variety of cancers at different stages of disease, but these have not been subjected to a critical review regarding their validity: reproducible identification in comparable studies and/or with different platforms of miRNA detection. In this review, we will critically address the results of circulating miRNA research in oncology that have been published between January 2008 and June 2013 (5.5 years), and discuss pre-analytical challenges, technological pitfalls and limitations that may contribute to the non-reproducibility of circulating miRNA research.

  4. Testing and validating environmental models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirchner, J.W.; Hooper, R.P.; Kendall, C.; Neal, C.; Leavesley, G.

    1996-01-01

    Generally accepted standards for testing and validating ecosystem models would benefit both modellers and model users. Universally applicable test procedures are difficult to prescribe, given the diversity of modelling approaches and the many uses for models. However, the generally accepted scientific principles of documentation and disclosure provide a useful framework for devising general standards for model evaluation. Adequately documenting model tests requires explicit performance criteria, and explicit benchmarks against which model performance is compared. A model's validity, reliability, and accuracy can be most meaningfully judged by explicit comparison against the available alternatives. In contrast, current practice is often characterized by vague, subjective claims that model predictions show 'acceptable' agreement with data; such claims provide little basis for choosing among alternative models. Strict model tests (those that invalid models are unlikely to pass) are the only ones capable of convincing rational skeptics that a model is probably valid. However, 'false positive' rates as low as 10% can substantially erode the power of validation tests, making them insufficiently strict to convince rational skeptics. Validation tests are often undermined by excessive parameter calibration and overuse of ad hoc model features. Tests are often also divorced from the conditions under which a model will be used, particularly when it is designed to forecast beyond the range of historical experience. In such situations, data from laboratory and field manipulation experiments can provide particularly effective tests, because one can create experimental conditions quite different from historical data, and because experimental data can provide a more precisely defined 'target' for the model to hit. We present a simple demonstration showing that the two most common methods for comparing model predictions to environmental time series (plotting model time series

  5. Base Flow Model Validation Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The innovation is the systematic "building-block" validation of CFD/turbulence models employing a GUI driven CFD code (RPFM) and existing as well as new data sets to...

  6. An elementary model of money circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokrovskii, Vladimir N.; Schinckus, Christophe

    2016-12-01

    This paper investigates money circulation for a system, consisting of a production system, the government, a central bank, commercial banks and many customers of the commercial banks. A set of equations for the system is written; the theory determines the main features of interaction between production and money circulation. Investigation of the equations in a steady-state situation reveals some relationship among output of the production system and monetary variables. The relation of quantity theory of money is confirmed, whereas a new concept of the efficiency of the system is introduced.

  7. Validating Dart Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mazur Jolanta

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The primary objective of the study was to quantitatively test the DART model, which despite being one of the most popular representations of co-creation concept was so far studied almost solely with qualitative methods. To this end, the researchers developed a multiple measurement scale and employed it in interviewing managers. The statistical evidence for adequacy of the model was obtained through CFA with AMOS software. The findings suggest that the DART model may not be an accurate representation of co-creation practices in companies. From the data analysis it was evident that the building blocks of DART had too much of conceptual overlap to be an effective framework for quantitative analysis. It was also implied that the phenomenon of co-creation is so rich and multifaceted that it may be more adequately captured by a measurement model where co-creation is conceived as a third-level factor with two layers of intermediate latent variables.

  8. Modelling the Seasonal Overturning Circulation in the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Yao, Fengchao

    2015-04-01

    The overturning circulation in the Red Sea exhibits a distinct seasonally reversing pattern and is studied using 50-year, high-resolution MIT general circulation model simulations. The seasonal water exchange in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb is successfully simulated, and the structures of the intruding subsurface Gulf of Aden intermediate water are in good agreement with summer observations in 2011. The model results suggest that the summer overturning circulation is driven by the combined effect of the shoaling of the thermocline in the Gulf of Aden resulting from remote winds in the Arabian Sea and an upward surface slope from the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden set up by local surface winds in the Red Sea. For the winter overturning circulation, the climatological model mean results suggest that the surface inflow intensifies in a western boundary current in the southern Red Sea that switches to an eastern boundary current north of 24°N. The overturning is accomplished through a cyclonic recirculation and a cross-basin overturning circulation in the northern Red Sea, with major sinking occurring along a narrow band of width about 20 km along the eastern boundary and weaker upwelling along the western boundary. The northward pressure gradient force, strong vertical mixing, and horizontal mixing near the boundary are the essential dynamical components in the model\\'s winter overturning circulation.

  9. A new barotropic model of the wind-driven circulation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张庆华; 曲媛媛; 李坚克

    1999-01-01

    Rationalized by the observational circulation pattern in the upper ocean of the North Pacific, meridional friction term is first incorporated in a barotropic theoretical model of the wind-driven circulation. The governing potential vortieity equation thence has β term and wind stress curl term (the two of the Sverdrup balance), zonal friction term and meridional friction term. The analytical solution satisfactorily captures many important features of the wind-driven circulation in the North Pacific: Kuroshio, Oyashio, Kuroshio extension, North Equatorial Current, and especially the eastern boundary currents in the North Pacific, i.e. California current and Alaska current.

  10. Parkinsons Disease-related Circulating microRNA Biomarkers——a Validation Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Petillo

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Parkinson's disease (PD is the second most common neurodegenerative disease. One of the major challenges in studying this progressive neurological disorder is to identify and develop biomarkers for early detection. Recently, several blood-based microRNA (miRNA biomarkers for PD have been reported. However, follow-up studies with new, independent cohorts have been rare. Previously, we identified a panel of four circulating miRNA biomarkers for PD (miR-1826, miR-450b-3p, miR-505, and miR-626 with biomarker performance of 91% sensitivity and 100% specificity. However, the expression of miR-450b-3p could not be detected in a new, independent validation set. In our current study, we improved the detection power by including a non-biased pre-amplification step in quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR and reevaluated the biomarker performance. We found the panel of four PD-related miRNAs achieved the predictive power of 83% sensitivity and 75% specificity in our validation set. This is the first biomarker validation study of PD which showed reproducibility and robustness of plasma-based circulating miRNAs as molecular biomarkers and qRT-PCR as potential diagnostic assay.

  11. Twentieth century Walker Circulation change: data analysis and model experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meng, Qingjia [Leibniz-Institut fuer Meereswissenschaften, Kiel (Germany); Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, River and Coastal Environment Research Center, Beijing (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Qingdao (China); Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Martin, Thomas [Leibniz-Institut fuer Meereswissenschaften, Kiel (Germany); Semenov, Vladimir A. [Leibniz-Institut fuer Meereswissenschaften, Kiel (Germany); A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2012-05-15

    Recent studies indicate a weakening of the Walker Circulation during the twentieth century. Here, we present evidence from an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by the history of observed sea surface temperature (SST) that the Walker Circulation may have intensified rather than weakened. Observed Equatorial Indo-Pacific Sector SST since 1870 exhibited a zonally asymmetric evolution: While the eastern part of the Equatorial Pacific showed only a weak warming, or even cooling in one SST dataset, the western part and the Equatorial Indian Ocean exhibited a rather strong warming. This has resulted in an increase of the SST gradient between the Maritime Continent and the eastern part of the Equatorial Pacific, one driving force of the Walker Circulation. The ensemble experiments with the AGCM, with and without time-varying external forcing, suggest that the enhancement of the SST gradient drove an anomalous atmospheric circulation, with an enhancement of both Walker and Hadley Circulation. Anomalously strong precipitation is simulated over the Indian Ocean and anomalously weak precipitation over the western Pacific, with corresponding changes in the surface wind pattern. Some sensitivity to the forcing SST, however, is noticed. The analysis of twentieth century integrations with global climate models driven with observed radiative forcing obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) database support the link between the SST gradient and Walker Circulation strength. Furthermore, control integrations with the CMIP models indicate the existence of strong internal variability on centennial timescales. The results suggest that a radiatively forced signal in the Walker Circulation during the twentieth century may have been too weak to be detectable. (orig.)

  12. African wave disturbances in a general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estoque, M. A.; Jiing, J. G.; Shukla, J.

    1983-01-01

    Evidence is presented to show that African wave disturbances are reproduced in a general circulation simulation. The model used is the general circulation model developed by the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences of the National Aeronautics and Space Agency. The model was integrated in order to simulate the summer of 1974. A synoptic analysis of the simulated data over Africa for the month of July was done. The results of the analysis show that wave disturbances are generated by the model; the behavior and the structure of the simulated disturbances are similar to those observed over tropical Africa during the northern summer.

  13. Calibrating the ECCO ocean general circulation model using Green's functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menemenlis, D.; Fu, L. L.; Lee, T.; Fukumori, I.

    2002-01-01

    Green's functions provide a simple, yet effective, method to test and calibrate General-Circulation-Model(GCM) parameterizations, to study and quantify model and data errors, to correct model biases and trends, and to blend estimates from different solutions and data products.

  14. A fully-implicit model of the global ocean circulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijer, Wilbert; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Öksüzoğlu, Hakan; Wubs, Fred W.; Niet, Arie C. de

    2003-01-01

    With the recent developments in the solution methods for large-dimensional nonlinear algebraic systems, fully-implicit ocean circulation models are now becoming feasible. In this paper, the formulation of such a three-dimensional global ocean model is presented. With this implicit model, the

  15. Intercomparison of three South China Sea circulation models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DU Yan; WANG Dongxiao; ZHOU Weidong; WANG Weiqiang; LIU Xiongbin

    2004-01-01

    Three numerical oceanic circulation models: POM(Princeton ocean model), MICOM(Miami isopycnal coordinates ocean model) and GFDL model, which adopt sigma coordinate, isopycnal coordinate and depth coordinate respectively,are used in the South China Sea(SCS) circulation modeling. Model domain has the same topography, grid resolution,initial conditions and surface boundary conditions. The maximum ocean depth is set as 1000 m. Grid resolution is 0.5°×0.5°.Initial conditions are supplied by climatological temperature and salinity data in January. Climatological wind stress, surface temperature and salinity are used as surface forcing. Lateral boundaries take enclosed boundary conditions artificially. Focusing on the common point of different ocean circulation models, the circulation pattern in winter and summer, sea surface height in the northern SCS, seasonal cycle of the mixed layer thickness in the southem SCS,barotropic stream function in winter are selected to carry out intercomparison. In winter, a strong cyclonic gyre occupies the whole SCS. In summer, a strong anticyclonic gyre occupies the southern SCS and a weak cyclonic gyre occupies the northern SCS. The thickness of the mixed layer shows bimodal features in the southern SCS. Sea surface height anomaly(SSHA) in the northern SCS has an eastward propagating feature, in agreement with the remote sensing observation. Barotropic stream functions indicate that the circulation of the upper ocean is mainly forced by inputting of wind stress curl under closed boundary conditions. In addition, three models also show distinct differences. The basinscale circulation fiom MICOM is distinct. Output of POM has more mesoscale eddies than others. GFDL model seems good at simulating westward intensification.

  16. PWR hot leg natural circulation modeling with MELCOR code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Jae Hong; Lee, Jong In [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-12-31

    Previous MELCOR and SCDAP/RELAP5 nodalizations for simulating the counter-current, natural circulation behavior of vapor flow within the RCS hot legs and SG U-tubes when core damage progress can not be applied to the steady state and water-filled conditions during the initial period of accident progression because of the artificially high loss coefficients in the hot legs and SG U-tubes which were chosen from results of COMMIX calculation and the Westinghouse natural circulation experiments in a 1/7-scale facility for simulating steam natural circulation behavior in the vessel and circulation modeling which can be used both for the liquid flow condition at steady state and for the vapor flow condition at the later period of in-vessel core damage. For this, the drag forces resulting from the momentum exchange effects between the two vapor streams in the hot leg was modeled as a pressure drop by pump model. This hot leg natural circulation modeling of MELCOR was able to reproduce similar mass flow rates with those predicted by previous models. 6 refs., 2 figs. (Author)

  17. Optimal control of CPR procedure using hemodynamic circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenhart, Suzanne M.; Protopopescu, Vladimir A.; Jung, Eunok

    2007-12-25

    A method for determining a chest pressure profile for cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) includes the steps of representing a hemodynamic circulation model based on a plurality of difference equations for a patient, applying an optimal control (OC) algorithm to the circulation model, and determining a chest pressure profile. The chest pressure profile defines a timing pattern of externally applied pressure to a chest of the patient to maximize blood flow through the patient. A CPR device includes a chest compressor, a controller communicably connected to the chest compressor, and a computer communicably connected to the controller. The computer determines the chest pressure profile by applying an OC algorithm to a hemodynamic circulation model based on the plurality of difference equations.

  18. Stratospheric General Circulation with Chemistry Model (SGCCM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rood, Richard B.; Douglass, Anne R.; Geller, Marvin A.; Kaye, Jack A.; Nielsen, J. Eric; Rosenfield, Joan E.; Stolarski, Richard S.

    1990-01-01

    In the past two years constituent transport and chemistry experiments have been performed using both simple single constituent models and more complex reservoir species models. Winds for these experiments have been taken from the data assimilation effort, Stratospheric Data Analysis System (STRATAN).

  19. Modeling of Sulfur Retention in Circulating Fluidized Bed Coal Combustors

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    乔锐; 吕俊复; 刘青; 吴学安; 岳光溪

    2001-01-01

    A comprehensive model for predicting the sulfur retention performance in circulating fluidized bedcombustors was developed which involves the different residence times, the wide particle size distribution andthe different forms of sulfur in the coal. In addition, the reductive decomposition of CaSO4 is highlighted. Thesimulation results from the model show that the sulfur contents, the bed temperature, the sorbent particle sizedistribution and the sorbent activity or the maximum conversion rate can significantly influence the sulfuretention performance in circulating fluidized bed (CFB) combustors.``

  20. THOR: A New and Flexible Global Circulation Model to Explore Planetary Atmospheres

    CERN Document Server

    Mendonça, João M; Grosheintz, Luc; Heng, Kevin

    2016-01-01

    We have designed and developed, from scratch, a global circulation model named THOR that solves the three-dimensional non-hydrostatic Euler equations. Our general approach lifts the commonly used assumptions of a shallow atmosphere and hydrostatic equilibrium. We solve the "pole problem" (where converging meridians on a sphere lead to increasingly smaller time steps near the poles) by implementing an icosahedral grid. Irregularities in the grid, which lead to grid imprinting, are smoothed using the "spring dynamics" technique. We validate our implementation of spring dynamics by examining calculations of the divergence and gradient of test functions. To prevent the computational time step from being bottlenecked by having to resolve sound waves, we implement a split-explicit method together with a horizontally explicit and vertically implicit integration. We validate our global circulation model by reproducing the Earth and also the hot Jupiter-like benchmark tests. THOR was designed to run on Graphics Proces...

  1. Adaptation of a general circulation model to ocean dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, R. E.; Rees, T. H.; Woodbury, G. E.

    1976-01-01

    A primitive-variable general circulation model of the ocean was formulated in which fast external gravity waves are suppressed with rigid-lid surface constraint pressires which also provide a means for simulating the effects of large-scale free-surface topography. The surface pressure method is simpler to apply than the conventional stream function models, and the resulting model can be applied to both global ocean and limited region situations. Strengths and weaknesses of the model are also presented.

  2. A Review of Water Isotopes in Atmospheric General Circulation Models: Recent Advances and Future Prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xi Xi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Stable water isotopologues, mainly 1H2O, 1H2HO (HDO, and H12O18, are useful tracers for processes in the global hydrological cycle. The incorporation of water isotopes into Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs since 1984 has helped scientists gain substantial new insights into our present and past climate. In recent years, there have been several significant advances in water isotopes modeling in AGCMs. This paper reviews and synthesizes key advances accomplished in modeling (1 surface evaporation, (2 condensation, (3 supersaturation, (4 postcondensation processes, (5 vertical distribution of water isotopes, and (6 spatial δ18O-temperature slope and utilizing (1 spectral nudging technique, (2 higher model resolutions, and (3 coupled atmosphere-ocean models. It also reviews model validation through comparisons of model outputs and ground-based and spaceborne measurements. In the end, it identifies knowledge gaps and discusses future prospects of modeling and model validation.

  3. MODELING NONLINEAR DYNAMICS OF CIRCULATING FLUIDIZED BEDS USING NEURAL NETWORKS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wei; Chen; Atsushi; Tsutsumi; Haiyan; Lin; Kentaro; Otawara

    2005-01-01

    In the present work, artificial neural networks (ANNs) were proposed to model nonlinear dynamic behaviors of local voidage fluctuations induced by highly turbulent interactions between the gas and solid phases in circulating fluidized beds. The fluctuations of local voidage were measured by using an optical transmittance probe at various axial and radial positions in a circulating fluidized bed with a riser of 0.10 m in inner diameter and 10 m in height. The ANNs trained with experimental time series were applied to make short-term and long-term predictions of dynamic characteristics in the circulating fluidized bed. An early stop approach was adopted to enhance the long-term prediction capability of ANNs. The performance of the trained ANN was evaluated in terms of time-averaged characteristics, power spectra, cycle number and short-term predictability analysis of time series measured and predicted by the model.

  4. PEMFC modeling and experimental validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vargas, J.V.C. [Federal University of Parana (UFPR), Curitiba, PR (Brazil). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering], E-mail: jvargas@demec.ufpr.br; Ordonez, J.C.; Martins, L.S. [Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL (United States). Center for Advanced Power Systems], Emails: ordonez@caps.fsu.edu, martins@caps.fsu.edu

    2009-07-01

    In this paper, a simplified and comprehensive PEMFC mathematical model introduced in previous studies is experimentally validated. Numerical results are obtained for an existing set of commercial unit PEM fuel cells. The model accounts for pressure drops in the gas channels, and for temperature gradients with respect to space in the flow direction, that are investigated by direct infrared imaging, showing that even at low current operation such gradients are present in fuel cell operation, and therefore should be considered by a PEMFC model, since large coolant flow rates are limited due to induced high pressure drops in the cooling channels. The computed polarization and power curves are directly compared to the experimentally measured ones with good qualitative and quantitative agreement. The combination of accuracy and low computational time allow for the future utilization of the model as a reliable tool for PEMFC simulation, control, design and optimization purposes. (author)

  5. Modelling the shelf circulation off eastern Tasmania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, Eric C. J.; Herzfeld, Mike; Holbrook, Neil J.

    2016-11-01

    The marine waters across Tasmanian's eastern continental shelf are biologically productive and home to economically important fisheries and aquaculture industries. However, the marine climate there is poorly understood. We use a high-resolution (∼2 km in the horizontal), three-dimensional ocean model for eastern Tasmania (ETAS) to examine the simulated mean state and seasonal cycle of temperature, salinity and three-dimensional flow field, and the evaluation of daily model outputs against in situ and remote observations for the 1993-2014 period. We also use the model to examine the roles of river input and tidal forcing. The model is evaluated against remotely-sensed sea surface temperature and in-situ observations of sea level and subsurface temperature, salinity, and currents. The mean state demonstrates the influence of two well-known boundary currents (the East Australian Current, EAC, and the Zeehan Current, ZC) as well as the effects of local freshwater input from river runoff. The EAC is dominant in summer and the ZC in winter; the influence of the EAC also increases northwards and in the offshore direction. In addition, the model indicates the presence of a semi-permanent subsurface (50-100 m depth) northward flow trapped near the coast. Cool freshwater runoff from the Derwent and Huon Rivers directly impacts the temperature and salinity in their estuaries but has little influence further across the shelf. Tidal forcing impacts the mean state through tide-river interactions which flush Frederick Henry Bay and Norfolk Bay with freshwater. Tidal forcing also impacts the variability of temperature all along the coastline, most likely due to changes in the turbulent mixing near to the coast. The ETAS model output data are available as a high-resolution representation of the mean state, seasonal variations, and interannual variability of Tasmania's eastern continental shelf marine climate.

  6. Interactions Between the Thermohaline Circulation and Tropical Atlantic SST in a Coupled General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Ron; Jiang, Xing-Jian; Travis, Larry (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Tropical Atlantic SST shows a (statistically well-defined) decadal time scale in a 104-year simulation of unforced variability by a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The SST anomalies superficially resemble observed Tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), and are associated with changes in the atmospheric circulation. Brazilian rainfall is modulated with a decadal time scale, along with the strength of the Atlantic trade winds, which are associated with variations in evaporation and the net surface heat flux. However, in contrast to observed tropical Atlantic variability, the trade winds damp the associated anomalies in ocean temperature, indicating a negative feedback. Tropical SST anomalies in the CGCM, though opposed by the surface heat flux, are advected in from the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. These variations modulate the strength of the thermohaline circulation (THC): warm, salty anomalies at the equator sink drawing cold, fresh mid-latitude water. Upon reaching the equator, the latter inhibit vertical overturning and advection from higher latitudes, which allows warm, salty anomalies to reform, returning the cycle to its original state. Thus, the cycle results from advection of density anomalies and the effect of these anomalies upon the rate of vertical overturning and surface advection. This decadal modulation of Tropical Atlantic SST and the thermohaline circulation is correlated with ocean heat transport to the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and Norwegian Sea SST. Because of the central role of equatorial convection, we question whether this mechanism is present in the current climate, although we speculate that it may have operated in palaeo times, depending upon the stability of the tropical water column.

  7. THE THEORETICAL MODEL FOR PREDICTING CIRCULATION VELOCITY OF HYDRAULIC BRAKE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘英林; 侯春生

    1997-01-01

    By rational hypothesis of fluid flow pattern, applied the law of conservation of energy and integrated the laboratory test results, finished the prediction by the theoretical model of circulation velocity of hydraulic brake which is important parameter. Thus provide the theoritical basis for hydraulic brake of belt conveyor whose research has just been started.

  8. A general circulation model (GCM) parameterization of Pinatubo aerosols

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lacis, A.A.; Carlson, B.E.; Mishchenko, M.I. [NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States)

    1996-04-01

    The June 1991 volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo is the largest and best documented global climate forcing experiment in recorded history. The time development and geographical dispersion of the aerosol has been closely monitored and sampled. Based on preliminary estimates of the Pinatubo aerosol loading, general circulation model predictions of the impact on global climate have been made.

  9. Using the Gamma-Poisson Model to Predict Library Circulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burrell, Quentin L.

    1990-01-01

    Argues that the gamma mixture of Poisson processes, for all its perceived defects, can be used to make predictions regarding future library book circulations of a quality adequate for general management requirements. The use of the model is extensively illustrated with data from two academic libraries. (Nine references) (CLB)

  10. Validation for a recirculation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaPuma, P T

    2001-04-01

    Recent Clean Air Act regulations designed to reduce volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions have placed new restrictions on painting operations. Treating large volumes of air which contain dilute quantities of VOCs can be expensive. Recirculating some fraction of the air allows an operator to comply with environmental regulations at reduced cost. However, there is a potential impact on employee safety because indoor pollutants will inevitably increase when air is recirculated. A computer model was developed, written in Microsoft Excel 97, to predict compliance costs and indoor air concentration changes with respect to changes in the level of recirculation for a given facility. The model predicts indoor air concentrations based on product usage and mass balance equations. This article validates the recirculation model using data collected from a C-130 aircraft painting facility at Hill Air Force Base, Utah. Air sampling data and air control cost quotes from vendors were collected for the Hill AFB painting facility and compared to the model's predictions. The model's predictions for strontium chromate and isocyanate air concentrations were generally between the maximum and minimum air sampling points with a tendency to predict near the maximum sampling points. The model's capital cost predictions for a thermal VOC control device ranged from a 14 percent underestimate to a 50 percent overestimate of the average cost quotes. A sensitivity analysis of the variables is also included. The model is demonstrated to be a good evaluation tool in understanding the impact of recirculation.

  11. Dynamical Analysis of the Lorenz-84 Atmospheric Circulation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hu Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The dynamical behaviors of the Lorenz-84 atmospheric circulation model are investigated based on qualitative theory and numerical simulations. The stability and local bifurcation conditions of the Lorenz-84 atmospheric circulation model are obtained. It is also shown that when the bifurcation parameter exceeds a critical value, the Hopf bifurcation occurs in this model. Then, the conditions of the supercritical and subcritical bifurcation are derived through the normal form theory. Finally, the chaotic behavior of the model is also discussed, the bifurcation diagrams and Lyapunov exponents spectrum for the corresponding parameter are obtained, and the parameter interval ranges of limit cycle and chaotic attractor are calculated in further. Especially, a computer-assisted proof of the chaoticity of the model is presented by a topological horseshoe theory.

  12. Validation of Magnetospheric Magnetohydrodynamic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Brian

    Magnetospheric magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models are commonly used for both prediction and modeling of Earth's magnetosphere. To date, very little validation has been performed to determine their limits, uncertainties, and differences. In this work, we performed a comprehensive analysis using several commonly used validation techniques in the atmospheric sciences to MHD-based models of Earth's magnetosphere for the first time. The validation techniques of parameter variability/sensitivity analysis and comparison to other models were used on the OpenGGCM, BATS-R-US, and SWMF magnetospheric MHD models to answer several questions about how these models compare. The questions include: (1) the difference between the model's predictions prior to and following to a reversal of Bz in the upstream interplanetary field (IMF) from positive to negative, (2) the influence of the preconditioning duration, and (3) the differences between models under extreme solar wind conditions. A differencing visualization tool was developed and used to address these three questions. We find: (1) For a reversal in IMF Bz from positive to negative, the OpenGGCM magnetopause is closest to Earth as it has the weakest magnetic pressure near-Earth. The differences in magnetopause positions between BATS-R-US and SWMF are explained by the influence of the ring current, which is included in SWMF. Densities are highest for SWMF and lowest for OpenGGCM. The OpenGGCM tail currents differ significantly from BATS-R-US and SWMF; (2) A longer preconditioning time allowed the magnetosphere to relax more, giving different positions for the magnetopause with all three models before the IMF Bz reversal. There were differences greater than 100% for all three models before the IMF Bz reversal. The differences in the current sheet region for the OpenGGCM were small after the IMF Bz reversal. The BATS-R-US and SWMF differences decreased after the IMF Bz reversal to near zero; (3) For extreme conditions in the solar

  13. Winter Season Stratospheric Circulation in the SAMIL/LASG General Circulation Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    REN Rongcai; WU Guoxiong; Ming CAI; YU Jingjing

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we examine the performance of the 26-level version of the SAMIL/LASG GCM (R42/L26)in simulating the seasonal cycle and perpetual winter mean stratospheric circulation as well as its variability by comparing them with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The results show that the model is capable of reproducing many key features of the climatology and seasonal variation of the stratospheric circulation despite that the model's mean polar vortex is stronger and more zonally symmetric compared to the observation. Further diagnosis of the results from a perpetual-January-run of the SAMIL/LASG GCM indicates that the dominant winter-season oscillation mode in the model's stratosphere exhibits a similar inter-seasonal timescale with similar spatial patterns as those inferred from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In particular, the simulated polar vortex oscillation mode exhibits a dominant inter-seasonal timescale of about 120 days, and is accompanied with the simultaneous poleward and downward propagation of temperature anomalies in the stratosphere and the equatorward propagation of temperature anomalies in the troposphere. More encouragingly, the 26-layer version of the SAMIL/LASG GCM is able to produce three strong Stratospheric Sudden Warming events during the 1825 days of perpetual-January integration, with the polar westerly jet completely reversed for a few weeks without imposing any prescribed anomalous forcing at the lower boundary.

  14. Hemodynamic modeling of the intrarenal circulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    M'rabet Bensalah, K; Uehlinger, D; Kalicki, R; Czerwinska, J

    2013-12-01

    Three dimensional, time dependent numerical simulations of healthy and pathological conditions in a model kidney were performed. Blood flow in a kidney is not commonly investigated by computational approach, in contrast for example, to the flow in a heart. The flow in a kidney is characterized by relatively small Reynolds number (100 laminar regime). The presented results give insight into the structure of such flow, which is hard to measure in vivo. The simulations have suggested that venous thrombosis is more likely than arterial thrombosis-higher shear rate observed. The obtained maximum velocity, as a result of the simulations, agrees with the observed in vivo measurements. The time dependent simulations show separation regimes present in the vicinity of the maximum pressure value. The pathological constriction introduced to the arterial geometry leads to the changes in separation structures. The constriction of a single vessel affects flow in the whole kidney. Pathology results in different flow rate values in healthy and affected branches, as well as, different pulsate cycle characteristic for the whole system.

  15. Modelling Saturn's atmospheric circulations and cloud structure with OPUS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuchowski, L. C.; Read, P. L.; Yamazaki, Y. H.

    2009-04-01

    We are investigating Saturn's atmospheric circulations and cloud structure in the Northern and Southern hemisphere as initial value problems by use of the Oxford Planetary Unified model System (OPUS), a sophisticated GCM based on the UK Met Office Unified Model. Solving an extended form of the Hydrodynamic Primitive Equations, OPUS is capable of including 40 vertical levels from 0.1 bar to 100 bar. The model was initiated with temperature and balanced thermal wind profiles recently obtained by Cassini's Composite InfraRed Spectrometer (CIRS). A simple cloud scheme for the Jovian planets has been added to OPUS and is employed to model the three major cloud decks (ammonia, ammonium-hydrosulfide and water) on Saturn and the advection of these clouds with the atmosphere. We have already conducted several numerical studies with OPUS, simulating jet scale meridional circulations, the formation of cloud bands and discrete turbulent features on Jupiter. By modelling the dynamics and clouds of Saturn in a similar way, we are hoping to gain further insight into the formation of circulation cells over the zonal jet streams as well as to examine the distribution of atmospheric condensates in response to these motions. The model will also be used to numerically investigate the characteristic features in Saturn's Northern hemisphere. It is envisioned to directly compare the atmospheric configurations obtained for Saturn with previous results from the Jupiter model.

  16. Software Validation via Model Animation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutle, Aaron M.; Munoz, Cesar A.; Narkawicz, Anthony J.; Butler, Ricky W.

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores a new approach to validating software implementations that have been produced from formally-verified algorithms. Although visual inspection gives some confidence that the implementations faithfully reflect the formal models, it does not provide complete assurance that the software is correct. The proposed approach, which is based on animation of formal specifications, compares the outputs computed by the software implementations on a given suite of input values to the outputs computed by the formal models on the same inputs, and determines if they are equal up to a given tolerance. The approach is illustrated on a prototype air traffic management system that computes simple kinematic trajectories for aircraft. Proofs for the mathematical models of the system's algorithms are carried out in the Prototype Verification System (PVS). The animation tool PVSio is used to evaluate the formal models on a set of randomly generated test cases. Output values computed by PVSio are compared against output values computed by the actual software. This comparison improves the assurance that the translation from formal models to code is faithful and that, for example, floating point errors do not greatly affect correctness and safety properties.

  17. Impact of an improved shortwave radiation scheme in the MAECHAM5 General Circulation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Morcrette

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available In order to improve the representation of ozone absorption in the stratosphere of the MAECHAM5 general circulation model, the spectral resolution of the shortwave radiation parameterization used in the model has been increased from 4 to 6 bands. Two 20-years simulations with the general circulation model have been performed, one with the standard and the other with the newly introduced parameterization respectively, to evaluate the temperature and dynamical changes arising from the two different representations of the shortwave radiative transfer. In the simulation with the increased spectral resolution in the radiation parameterization, a significant warming of almost the entire model domain is reported. At the summer stratopause the temperature increase is about 6 K and alleviates the cold bias present in the model when the standard radiation scheme is used. These general circulation model results are consistent both with previous validation of the radiation scheme and with the offline clear-sky comparison performed in the current work with a discrete ordinate 4 stream scattering line by line radiative transfer model. The offline validation shows a substantial reduction of the daily averaged shortwave heating rate bias (1–2 K/day cooling that occurs for the standard radiation parameterization in the upper stratosphere, present under a range of atmospheric conditions. Therefore, the 6 band shortwave radiation parameterization is considered to be better suited for the representation of the ozone absorption in the stratosphere than the 4 band parameterization. Concerning the dynamical response in the general circulation model, it is found that the reported warming at the summer stratopause induces stronger zonal mean zonal winds in the middle atmosphere. These stronger zonal mean zonal winds thereafter appear to produce a dynamical feedback that results in a dynamical warming (cooling of the polar winter (summer mesosphere, caused by an

  18. Numerical experimentation of a diagnostic model of 3-D circulation in the Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Shaji, C.; Bahulayan, N.; Dube, S.K.; Rao, A.D.

    Climatic circulation in the upper levels of the Arabian Sea and western equatorial Indian Ocean are computed using a 3-dimensional, 33 level diagnostic circulation model. A steady state solution is obtained within 30 days of model integration. Model...

  19. Verifying and Validating Simulation Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-02-23

    This presentation is a high-level discussion of the Verification and Validation (V&V) of computational models. Definitions of V&V are given to emphasize that “validation” is never performed in a vacuum; it accounts, instead, for the current state-of-knowledge in the discipline considered. In particular comparisons between physical measurements and numerical predictions should account for their respective sources of uncertainty. The differences between error (bias), aleatoric uncertainty (randomness) and epistemic uncertainty (ignorance, lack-of- knowledge) are briefly discussed. Four types of uncertainty in physics and engineering are discussed: 1) experimental variability, 2) variability and randomness, 3) numerical uncertainty and 4) model-form uncertainty. Statistical sampling methods are available to propagate, and analyze, variability and randomness. Numerical uncertainty originates from the truncation error introduced by the discretization of partial differential equations in time and space. Model-form uncertainty is introduced by assumptions often formulated to render a complex problem more tractable and amenable to modeling and simulation. The discussion concludes with high-level guidance to assess the “credibility” of numerical simulations, which stems from the level of rigor with which these various sources of uncertainty are assessed and quantified.

  20. Obstructive lung disease models: what is valid?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferdinands, Jill M; Mannino, David M

    2008-12-01

    Use of disease simulation models has led to scrutiny of model methods and demand for evidence that models credibly simulate health outcomes. We sought to describe recent obstructive lung disease simulation models and their validation. Medline and EMBASE were used to identify obstructive lung disease simulation models published from January 2000 to June 2006. Publications were reviewed to assess model attributes and four types of validation: first-order (verification/debugging), second-order (comparison with studies used in model development), third-order (comparison with studies not used in model development), and predictive validity. Six asthma and seven chronic obstructive pulmonary disease models were identified. Seven (54%) models included second-order validation, typically by comparing observed outcomes to simulations of source study cohorts. Seven (54%) models included third-order validation, in which modeled outcomes were usually compared qualitatively for agreement with studies independent of the model. Validation endpoints included disease prevalence, exacerbation, and all-cause mortality. Validation was typically described as acceptable, despite near-universal absence of criteria for judging adequacy of validation. Although over half of recent obstructive lung disease simulation models report validation, inconsistencies in validation methods and lack of detailed reporting make assessing adequacy of validation difficult. For simulation modeling to be accepted as a tool for evaluating clinical and public health programs, models must be validated to credibly simulate health outcomes of interest. Defining the required level of validation and providing guidance for quantitative assessment and reporting of validation are important future steps in promoting simulation models as practical decision tools.

  1. Treatment of cloud radiative effects in general circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, W.C.; Dudek, M.P.; Liang, X.Z.; Ding, M. [State Univ. of New York, Albany, NY (United States)] [and others

    1996-04-01

    We participate in the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program with two objectives: (1) to improve the general circulation model (GCM) cloud/radiation treatment with a focus on cloud verticle overlapping and layer cloud optical properties, and (2) to study the effects of cloud/radiation-climate interaction on GCM climate simulations. This report summarizes the project progress since the Fourth ARM Science Team meeting February 28-March 4, 1994, in Charleston, South Carolina.

  2. Clinical CVVH model removes endothelium-derived microparticles from circulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelhafeez H. Abdelhafeez

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Endothelium-derived microparticles (EMPs are submicron vesicles released from the plasma membrane of endothelial cells in response to injury, apoptosis or activation. We have previously demonstrated EMP-induced acute lung injury (ALI in animal models and endothelial barrier dysfunction in vitro. Current treatment options for ALI are limited and consist of supportive therapies. We hypothesize that standard clinical continuous venovenous hemofiltration (CVVH reduces serum EMP levels and may be adapted as a potential therapeutic intervention. Materials and methods: EMPs were generated from plasminogen activation inhibitor-1 (PAI-1-stimulated human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs. Flow cytometric analysis was used to characterize EMPs as CD31- and annexin V-positive events in a submicron size gate. Enumeration was completed against a known concentration of latex beads. Ultimately, a concentration of ~650,000 EMP/mL perfusate fluid (total 470 mL was circulated through a standard CVVH filter (pore size 200 μm, flow rate 250 mL/hr for a period of 70 minutes. 0.5 mL aliquots were removed at 5- to 10-minute intervals for flow cytometric analysis. EMP concentration in the dialysate was measured at the end of 4 hours to better understand the fate of EMPs. Results: A progressive decrease in circulating EMP concentration was noted using standard CVVH at 250 mL/hr (a clinical standard rate from a 470 mL volume modelling a patient's circulation. A 50% reduction was noted within the first 30 minutes. EMPs entering the dialysate after 4 hours were 5.7% of the EMP original concentration. Conclusion: These data demonstrate that standard CVVH can remove EMPs from circulation in a circuit modelling a patient. An animal model of hemofiltration with induction of EMP release is required to test the therapeutic potential of this finding and potential of application in early treatment of ALI.

  3. Ross ice shelf cavity circulation, residence time, and melting: Results from a model of oceanic chlorofluorocarbons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Tasha E.; Holland, David M.; Arrigo, Kevin R.

    2010-04-01

    Despite their harmful effects in the upper atmosphere, anthropogenic chlorofluorocarbons dissolved in seawater are extremely useful for studying ocean circulation and ventilation, particularly in remote locations. Because they behave as a passive tracer in seawater, and their atmospheric concentrations are well-mixed, well-known, and have changed over time, they are ideal for gaining insight into the oceanographic characteristics of the isolated cavities found under Antarctic ice shelves, where direct observations are difficult to obtain. Here we present results from a modeling study of air-sea chlorofluorocarbon exchange and ocean circulation in the Ross Sea, Antarctica. We compare our model estimates of oceanic CFC-12 concentrations along an ice shelf edge transect to field data collected during three cruises spanning 16 yr. Our model produces chlorofluorocarbon concentrations that are quite similar to those measured in the field, both in magnitude and distribution, showing high values near the surface, decreasing with depth, and increasing over time. After validating modeled circulation and air-sea gas exchange through comparison of modeled temperature, salinity, and chlorofluorocarbons with field data, we estimate that the residence time of water in the Ross Ice Shelf cavity is approximately 2.2 yr and that basal melt rates for the ice shelf average 10 cm yr -1. The model predicts a seasonal signature to basal melting, with highest melt rates in the spring and also the fall.

  4. A seasonal model of the Mediterranean Sea general circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roussenov, Vassil; Stanev, Emil; Artale, Vincenzo; Pinardi, Nadia

    1995-07-01

    This paper describes the seasonal characteristics of the Mediterranean Sea general circulation as simulated by a primitive equation general circulation model. The forcing is composed of climatological monthly mean atmospheric parameters, which are used to compute the heat and momentum budgets at the air-sea interface of the model. This allows heat fluxes to be determined by a realistic air-sea interaction physics. The Strait of Gibraltar is open, and the model resolution is ? in the horizontal and 19 levels in the vertical. The results show the large seasonal cycle of the circulation and its transient characteristics. The heat budget at the surface is characterized by lateral boundary intensifications occurring in downwelling and up welling areas of the basin. The general circulation is composed of subbasin gyres, and cyclonic motion dominates the northern and anticyclonic motion the southern part of the basin. The Atlantic stream which enters from Gibraltar and assumes the form of different boundary current subsystems is a coherent structure at the surface. At depth it appears as current segments and jets around a vigorous gyre system. The seasonal variability is manifested not only by a change in amplitude and location of the gyres but also by the appearance of seasonally recurrent gyres in different parts of the basin. Distinct westward propagation of these gyres occurs, together with amplitude changes. For the first time a Mersa-Matruh Gyre is successfully simulated due to the introduction of our heat fluxes at the air-sea interface. The seasonal thermocline is formed each summer, and a deep winter mixed layer is produced in the region of Levantine intermediate water formation. Deep water renewal does not occur, probably due to the climatological forcing used.

  5. Characterizing the surface circulation in Ebro Delta (NW Mediterranean) with HF radar and modeled current data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorente, P.; Piedracoba, S.; Sotillo, M. G.; Aznar, R.; Amo-Balandron, A.; Pascual, A.; Soto-Navarro, J.; Alvarez-Fanjul, E.

    2016-11-01

    Quality-controlled current observations from a High Frequency radar (HFR) network deployed in the Ebro River Delta (NW Mediterranean) were combined with outputs from IBI operational ocean forecasting system in order to comprehensively portray the ocean state and its variability during 2014. Accurate HFR data were used as benchmark for a rigorous validation of the Iberia-Biscay-Ireland (IBI) regional system, routinely operated in the frame of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). The analysis of skill metrics and monthly averaged current maps showed that IBI reasonably captured the prevailing dynamic features of the coastal circulation previously observed by the HFR, according to the moderate resemblance found in circulation patterns and the spatial distribution of eddy kinetic energy. The model skill assessment was completed with an exploration of dominant modes of spatiotemporal variability. The EOF analysis confirmed that the modeled surface current field evolved both in space and time according to three significantly dominant modes of variability which accounted for the 49.2% of the total variance, in close agreement with the results obtained for HFR (46.1%). The response of the subtidal surface current field to prevailing wind regime in the study area was examined in terms of induced circulation structures and immediacy of reaction by performing a conditional averaging approach and a time-lagged vector correlation analysis, respectively. This observations-model synergistic strategy has proved to be valid to operationally monitor the complex coastal circulation in Ebro Delta despite the observed model drawbacks in terms of reduced energy content in surface currents and some inaccuracies in the wind-driven low frequency response. This integrated methodology aids to improve the prognostic capabilities of IBI ocean forecasting system and also to facilitate high-stakes decision-making for coastal management in the Ebro River Delta marine

  6. Characterizing the surface circulation in the Ebro Delta using a HF radar data-model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorente Jimenez, Pablo; Piedracoba Varela, Silvia; Soto-Navarro, Javier; Garcia-Sotillo, Marcos; Alvarez Fanjul, Enrique

    2016-04-01

    One year-long (2014) quality-controlled current observations from a CODAR SeaSonde High Frequency (HF) radar network deployed in the Ebro Delta (northwestern Mediterranean) were combined with operational products provided by a regional ocean forecasting system named IBI (Iberia-Biscay-Ireland) in order to comprehensively portray the ocean state and its variability. First, accurate HF radar data were used as benchmark for the rigorous validation of IBI performance by means of the computation of skill metrics and quality indicators. The analysis of the monthly averaged current maps for 2014 showed that IBI properly captured the prevailing dynamic features of the coastal circulation observed by the HF radar, according to the resemblance of circulation patterns and the eddy kinetic energy spatial distribution. The model skill assessment was completed with an exploration of dominant modes of variability both in time and space. The EOF analysis confirmed that the modeled surface current field evolved in space and time according to three significantly dominant modes of variability which accounted for the 49.2% of the total variance, in close agreement with the results obtained for the HF radar (46.1%). The response of the subtidal surface current field to prevalent wind regimes in the study area was examined in terms of induced circulation structures by performing a conditional averaging approach. This data-model synergistic approach has proved to be valid to operationally monitor and describe the complex coastal circulation in Ebro Delta despite the observed model drawbacks in terms of reduced energy content in surface currents and some inaccuracies in the wind-driven low frequency response. This integrated methodology constitutes a powerful tool for improving operational ocean forecasting systems at European level within the frame of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). It also facilitates high-stakes decision-making for coastal management and

  7. Tropical disturbances in relation to general circulation modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estoque, M. A.

    1982-01-01

    The initial results of an evaluation of the performance of the Goddard Laboratory of Atmospheric Simulation general circulation model depicting the tropical atmosphere during the summer are presented. Because the results show the existence of tropical wave disturbances throughout the tropics, the characteristics of synoptic disturbances over Africa were studied and a synoptic case study of a selected disturbance in this area was conducted. It is shown that the model is able to reproduce wave type synoptic disturbances in the tropics. The findings show that, in one of the summers simulated, the disturbances are predominantly closed vortices; in another summer, the predominant disturbances are open waves.

  8. Two-dimensional model for circulating fluidized-bed reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoenfelder, H.; Kruse, M.; Werther, J. [Technical Univ. Hamburg-Harburg, Hamburg (Germany). Dept. of Chemical Engineering

    1996-07-01

    Circulating fluidized bed reactors are widely used for the combustion of coal in power stations as well as for the cracking of heavy oil in the petroleum industry. A two-dimensional reactor model for circulating fluidized beds (CFB) was studied based on the assumption that at every location within the riser, a descending dense phase and a rising lean phase coexist. Fluid mechanical variables may be calculated from one measured radial solids flux profile (upward and downward). The internal mass-transfer behavior is described on the basis of tracer gas experiments. The CFB reactor model was tested against data from ozone decomposition experiments in a CFB cold flow model (15.6-m height, 0.4-m ID) operated in the ranges 2.5--4.5 m/s and 9--45 kg/(m{sup 2}{center_dot}s) of superficial gas velocity and solids mass flux, respectively. Based on effective reaction rate constants determined from the ozone exit concentration, the model was used to predict the spatial reactant distribution within the reactor. Model predictions agreed well with measurements.

  9. An analytical and experimental investigation of natural circulation transients in a model pressurized water reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Massoud, M

    1987-01-01

    Natural Circulation phenomena in a simulated PWR was investigated experimentally and analytically. The experimental investigation included determination of system characteristics as well as system response to the imposed transient under symmetric and asymmetric operations. System characteristics were used to obtain correlation for heat transfer coefficient in heat exchangers, system flow resistance, and system buoyancy heat. Asymmetric transients were imposed to study flow oscillation and possible instability. The analytical investigation encompassed development of mathematical model for single-phase, steady-state and transient natural circulation as well as modification of existing model for two-phase flow analysis of phenomena such as small break LOCA, high pressure coolant injection and pump coast down. The developed mathematical model for single-phase analysis was computer coded to simulate the imposed transients. The computer program, entitled ''Symmetric and Asymmetric Analysis of Single-Phase Flow (SAS),'' were employed to simulate the imposed transients. It closely emulated the system behavior throughout the transient and subsequent steady-state. Modifications for two-phase flow analysis included addition of models for once-through steam generator and electric heater rods. Both programs are faster than real time. Off-line, they can be used for prediction and training applications while on-line they serve for simulation and signal validation. The programs can also be used to determine the sensitivity of natural circulation behavior to variation of inputs such as secondary distribution and power transients.

  10. High Resolution Global Modeling of the Atmospheric Circulation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    An informal review is presented of recent developments in numerical simulation of the global atmospheric circulation with very fine numerical resolution models. The focus is on results obtained recently with versions of the GFDL SKYHI model and the Atmospheric Model for the Earth Simulator (AFES) global atmospheric models. These models have been run with effective horizontal grid resolution of ~10-40 km and fine vertical resolution. The results presented demonstrate the utility of such models for the study of a diverse range of phenomena. Specifically the models are shown to simulate the development of tropical cyclones with peak winds and minimum central pressures comparable to those of the most intense hurricanes actually observed. More fundamentally, the spectrum of energy content in the mesoscale in the flow can be reproduced by these models down to near the smallest explicitly-resolved horizontal scales. In the middle atmosphere it is shown that increasing horizontal resolution can lead to significantly improved overall simulation of the global-scale circulation. The application of the models to two specific problems requiring very fine resolution global will be discussed. The spatial and temporal variability of the vertical eddy flux of zonal momentum associated with gravity waves near the tropopause is evaluated in the very fine resolution AFES model. This is a subject of great importance for understanding and modelling the flow in the middle atmosphere. Then the simulation of the small scale variations of the semidiurnal surface pressure oscillation is analyzed, and the signature of significant topographic modulation of the semidiurnal atmospheric tide is identified.

  11. The Donders model of the circulation in normo- and pathophysiology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Noordergraaf, Gerrit J.; Ottesen, Johnny T.; Kortsmit, Wil J.P.M.

    2006-01-01

    and output, changes during exercise. First, it rotates counterclockwise and stretches along the output axis, second, it shifts along the filling axis. The first is induced by sympathetic control, the second by respiratory control. The model shows that depth of respiration, sympathetic stimulation of cardiac...... contractile properties and baroreceptor activity can exert powerful influences on the increase in cardiac output, while heart and respiratory rate increases tend to exert an inhibiting influence. Impedance-defined flow encompasses both positive and negative effects. The model demonstrates the limitations......A model of the closed human cardiovascular loop is developed. This model, using one set of 88 equations, allows variations from normal resting conditions to exercise, as well as to the extreme condition of a circulation following cardiac arrest. The principal purpose of the model is to evaluate...

  12. Three-dimensional numerical modeling of nearshore circulation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Detong

    2008-01-01

    A three-dimensional nearshore circulation model was developed by coupling CH3D, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model and REF/DIF, a nearsbore wave transformation model. The model solves the three-dimensional wave-averaged equations of motion. Wave-induced effects on circulation were introduced in the form of radiation stresses, wave-induced mass transport, wave-induced enhancement of bottom friction and wave-induced turbulent mixing. Effects of breaking waves were considered following Svendsen (1984a and 1984b) and Stive and Wind (1986). The model was successfully tested against the analytical solution of longshore currents by Longuet and Higgins (1970). The model successfully simulated the undertow as observed in a laboratory experiment by Stive and Wind (1982). In addition, the model was applied to a physical model by Mory and Hamm (1997) and successfully reproduced the eddy behind a detached breakwater as well as the longshore current on the open beach and the contiguous eddy in the open area of the wave tank. While the qualitative agreement between model results and experimental observations was very good, the quantitative agreement needs to be further improved. Albeit difficult to explain every discrepancy between the model re- suits and observations, in general, sources of errors are attributed to the lack of understanding and comprehensive description of following processes: (1) the horizontal and vertical distribution of radiation stress, especially for breaking waves; (2) the detailed structure of turbulence;(3)Wave-current interaction (not included at this moment) ; and (4)the wave- current boundary layer and the resulting bottom shear stress.

  13. Simulating the Upper Ocean Circulation on the Belize Shelf: An Application of a Triply Nested-Grid Ocean Circulation Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHENG Jinyu; TANG Liqun; WANG Liang

    2005-01-01

    We present a three-level nested-grid ocean circulation modeling system for the Belize shelf of the western Caribbean Sea. The nested-grid system has three subcomponents: a coarse-resolution outer model of the western Caribbean Sea; an intermediate-resolution middle model of the southern Meso-American Barrier Reef System; and a fine-resolution inner model of the Belize shelf. The two-way nesting technique based on the semi-prognostic method is used to exchange information between the three subcomponents. We discuss two applications of the nested-grid system in this study. In the first application we simulate the seasonal mean circulation in the region, with the nested system forced by monthly mean surface fluxes and boundary forcing. The model results reproduce the general circulation features on the western Caribbean Sea and meso-scale circulation features on the Belize shelf. In the second application, we simulate the storm-induced circulation during Hurricane Mitch in 1998, with the nested-grid system forced by the combination of monthly mean forcing and idealized wind stress associated with the storm. The model results demonstrate that the storm-induced currents transport a large amount of estuarinc waters from coastal regions of Honduras and Guatemala to offshore reef atolls.

  14. Combustion Model FOr Staged Circulating Fluidized Bed BOiler

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FandJianhua; LuQinggang; 等

    1997-01-01

    A mathematical model for atmospheric staged circulating fluidized bed combustion,which takes fluid dynamics,combustion,heat transfer,pollutants formation and retention,into account was developed in the institute of Engineering Thermophysics(IET)recently.The model of gas solid flow at the bottom of the combustor was treated by the two-phase theory of fluidized bed and in the upper region as a core-annulus flow structure.The chemical species CO,CO2,H2,H2O,CH4,O2 and N2 were considered in the reaction process.The mathematical model consisted of sub-modeles of fluid namics,coal heterogeneous and gas homogeneous chemical reactions.heat transfer,particle fragmentation and attrition,mass and energy balance tec.The developed code was applied to simulate an operating staged circulating fluidized bed combustion boiler of early design and the results were in good agreement with the operating data.The main submodels and simulation results are given in this paoper.

  15. A global multiscale mathematical model for the human circulation with emphasis on the venous system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Lucas O; Toro, Eleuterio F

    2014-07-01

    We present a global, closed-loop, multiscale mathematical model for the human circulation including the arterial system, the venous system, the heart, the pulmonary circulation and the microcirculation. A distinctive feature of our model is the detailed description of the venous system, particularly for intracranial and extracranial veins. Medium to large vessels are described by one-dimensional hyperbolic systems while the rest of the components are described by zero-dimensional models represented by differential-algebraic equations. Robust, high-order accurate numerical methodology is implemented for solving the hyperbolic equations, which are adopted from a recent reformulation that includes variable material properties. Because of the large intersubject variability of the venous system, we perform a patient-specific characterization of major veins of the head and neck using MRI data. Computational results are carefully validated using published data for the arterial system and most regions of the venous system. For head and neck veins, validation is carried out through a detailed comparison of simulation results against patient-specific phase-contrast MRI flow quantification data. A merit of our model is its global, closed-loop character; the imposition of highly artificial boundary conditions is avoided. Applications in mind include a vast range of medical conditions. Of particular interest is the study of some neurodegenerative diseases, whose venous haemodynamic connection has recently been identified by medical researchers.

  16. A Global Jet/Circulation Model for Young Stars

    CERN Document Server

    Lery, T; Fiege, J D; Ray, T P; Frank, A; Bacciotti, F

    2002-01-01

    Powerful, highly collimated jets, surrounded by bipolar molecular outflows, are commonly observed near Young Stellar Objects (YSOs). In the usual theoretical picture of star formation, a jet is ejected from a magnetized accretion disk, with a molecular outflow being driven either by the jet or by a wider wind coming from the disk. Here, we propose an alternative global model for the flows surrounding YSOs. In addition to a central accretion-ejection engine driving the jet, the molecular outflow is powered by the infalling matter and follows a circulation pattern around the central object without necessarily being entrained by a jet. It is shown that the model produces a heated pressure-driven outflow with magneto-centrifugal acceleration and collimation. We report solutions for the three different parts of this self-similar model, i.e. the jet, the infalling envelope and the circulating matter that eventually forms the molecular outflow. This new picture of the accretion/outflow phase provides a possible expl...

  17. A Pacific Ocean general circulation model for satellite data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Y.; Halpern, D.; Mechoso, C. R.

    1991-01-01

    A tropical Pacific Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) to be used in satellite data assimilation studies is described. The transfer of the OGCM from a CYBER-205 at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to a CRAY-2 at NASA's Ames Research Center is documented. Two 3-year model integrations from identical initial conditions but performed on those two computers are compared. The model simulations are very similar to each other, as expected, but the simulations performed with the higher-precision CRAY-2 is smoother than that with the lower-precision CYBER-205. The CYBER-205 and CRAY-2 use 32 and 64-bit mantissa arithmetic, respectively. The major features of the oceanic circulation in the tropical Pacific, namely the North Equatorial Current, the North Equatorial Countercurrent, the South Equatorial Current, and the Equatorial Undercurrent, are realistically produced and their seasonal cycles are described. The OGCM provides a powerful tool for study of tropical oceans and for the assimilation of satellite altimetry data.

  18. Anisotropic Mesoscale Eddy Transport in Ocean General Circulation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reckinger, S. J.; Fox-Kemper, B.; Bachman, S.; Bryan, F.; Dennis, J.; Danabasoglu, G.

    2014-12-01

    Modern climate models are limited to coarse-resolution representations of large-scale ocean circulation that rely on parameterizations for mesoscale eddies. The effects of eddies are typically introduced by relating subgrid eddy fluxes to the resolved gradients of buoyancy or other tracers, where the proportionality is, in general, governed by an eddy transport tensor. The symmetric part of the tensor, which represents the diffusive effects of mesoscale eddies, is universally treated isotropically in general circulation models. Thus, only a single parameter, namely the eddy diffusivity, is used at each spatial and temporal location to impart the influence of mesoscale eddies on the resolved flow. However, the diffusive processes that the parameterization approximates, such as shear dispersion, potential vorticity barriers, oceanic turbulence, and instabilities, typically have strongly anisotropic characteristics. Generalizing the eddy diffusivity tensor for anisotropy extends the number of parameters to three: a major diffusivity, a minor diffusivity, and the principal axis of alignment. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) with the anisotropic eddy parameterization is used to test various choices for the newly introduced parameters, which are motivated by observations and the eddy transport tensor diagnosed from high resolution simulations. Simply setting the ratio of major to minor diffusivities to a value of five globally, while aligning the major axis along the flow direction, improves biogeochemical tracer ventilation and reduces global temperature and salinity biases. These effects can be improved even further by parameterizing the anisotropic transport mechanisms in the ocean.

  19. On validation of multibody musculoskeletal models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Morten Enemark; de Zee, Mark; Andersen, Michael Skipper;

    2012-01-01

    This paper reviews the opportunities to validate multibody musculoskeletal models in view of the current transition of musculoskeletal modelling from a research topic to a practical simulation tool in product design, healthcare and other important applications. This transition creates a new need...... for improvement of the validation of multibody musculoskeletal models are pointed out and directions for future research in the field are proposed. It is our hope that a more structured approach to model validation can help to improve the credibility of musculoskeletal models....

  20. Optimal Data Split Methodology for Model Validation

    CERN Document Server

    Morrison, Rebecca; Terejanu, Gabriel; Miki, Kenji; Prudhomme, Serge

    2011-01-01

    The decision to incorporate cross-validation into validation processes of mathematical models raises an immediate question - how should one partition the data into calibration and validation sets? We answer this question systematically: we present an algorithm to find the optimal partition of the data subject to certain constraints. While doing this, we address two critical issues: 1) that the model be evaluated with respect to predictions of a given quantity of interest and its ability to reproduce the data, and 2) that the model be highly challenged by the validation set, assuming it is properly informed by the calibration set. This framework also relies on the interaction between the experimentalist and/or modeler, who understand the physical system and the limitations of the model; the decision-maker, who understands and can quantify the cost of model failure; and the computational scientists, who strive to determine if the model satisfies both the modeler's and decision maker's requirements. We also note...

  1. A Global Ocean Biogeochemistry General Circulation Model and its Simulations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Yongfu; LI Yangchun; CHU Min

    2013-01-01

    An ocean biogeochemistry model was developed and incorporated into a global ocean general circulation model (LICOM) to form an ocean biogeochemistry general circulation model (OBGCM).The model was used to study the natural carbon cycle and the uptake and storage of anthropogenic CO2 in the ocean.A global export production of 12.5 Pg C yr-1 was obtained.The model estimated that in the pre-industrial era the global equatorial region within ±15° of the equator released 0.97 Pg C yr-1 to the atmosphere,which was balanced by the gain of CO2 in other regions.The post-industrial air-sea CO2 flux indicated the oceanic uptake of CO2 emitted by human activities.An increase of 20-50 μmol kg-1 for surface dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations in the 1990s relative to pre-industrial times was obtained in the simulation,which was consistent with data-based estimates.The model generated a total anthropogenic carbon inventory of 105 Pg C as of 1994,which was within the range of estimates by other researchers.Various transports of both natural and anthropogenic DIC as well as labile dissolved organic carbon (LDOC)were estimated from the simulation.It was realized that the Southern Ocean and the high-latitude region of the North Pacific are important export regions where accumulative air-sea CO2 fluxes are larger than the DIC inventory,whereas the subtropical regions are acceptance regions.The interhemispheric transport of total natural carbon (DIC+LDOC) was found to be northward (0.11 Pg C yr-1),which was just balanced by the gain of carbon from the atmosphere in the Southern Hemisphere.

  2. Atmospheric Circulation on Hot Jupiters: Modeling and Observable Signatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rauscher, Emily Christine

    2010-12-01

    Hot Jupiters are unlike any planets in our Solar System and yet one of the most common types of extrasolar planet discovered. These gas giants orbit their parent stars with periods of a few days. Expected to be tidally locked into synchronous rotation, hot Jupiters experience intense, asymmetric heating from stellar irradiation, such that day-night temperature contrasts could reach hundreds of degrees Kelvin. This unique state of radiative forcing, as well as the slow rotation rates of these planets, places hot Jupiters within a new regime of atmospheric circulation. Hot Jupiters have also been the first type of extrasolar planet with direct detections of their atmospheres, through measurements of emitted, reflected, and transmitted light. This thesis investigates observational methods to distinguish between various atmospheric models, observational signatures of potential atmospheric variability, and presents a three dimensional model with which to study hot Jupiter circulation patterns. First, we find that eclipse mapping is a technique that can be used to image the day sides of these planets and although this is beyond the ability of current instruments, it will be achievable with future missions, such as the James Webb Space Telescope. Second, we consider the signatures of large-scale atmospheric variability in measurements of secondary eclipses and thermal orbital phase curves. For various models we predict the amount of variation in eclipse depth, and the amplitudes and detailed shapes of phase curves. Lastly, we develop a three-dimensional model of hot Jupiter atmospheric dynamics with simplified forcing and adopt a set-up nearly identical to work by another group to facilitate code inter-comparison. Our results are broadly consistent with theirs, with a transonic flow and the hottest region of the atmosphere advected eastward of the substellar point. However, we note important differences and identify areas of concern for future modeling efforts.

  3. Validation of systems biology models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hasdemir, D.

    2015-01-01

    The paradigm shift from qualitative to quantitative analysis of biological systems brought a substantial number of modeling approaches to the stage of molecular biology research. These include but certainly are not limited to nonlinear kinetic models, static network models and models obtained by the

  4. Different approaches to model the nearshore circulation in the south shore of O'ahu, Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcos Azevedo Correia de Souza, Joao; Powell, Brian

    2017-01-01

    The dynamical interaction between currents, bathymetry, waves, and estuarine outflow has significant impacts on the surf zone. We investigate the impacts of two strategies to include the effect of surface gravity waves on an ocean circulation model of the south shore of O'ahu, Hawaii. This area provides an ideal laboratory for the development of nearshore circulation modeling systems for reef-protected coastlines. We use two numerical models for circulation and waves: Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model, respectively. The circulation model is nested within larger-scale models that capture the tidal, regional, and wind-forced circulation of the Hawaiian archipelago. Two strategies are explored for circulation modeling: forcing by the output of the wave model and online, two-way coupling of the circulation and wave models. In addition, the circulation model alone provides the reference for the circulation without the effect of the waves. These strategies are applied to two experiments: (1) typical trade-wind conditions that are frequent during summer months, and (2) the arrival of a large winter swell that wraps around the island. The results show the importance of considering the effect of the waves on the circulation and, particularly, the circulation-wave coupled processes. Both approaches show a similar nearshore circulation pattern, with the presence of an offshore current in the middle beaches of Waikiki. Although the pattern of the offshore circulation remains the same, the coupled waves and circulation produce larger significant wave heights ( ≈ 10 %) and the formation of strong alongshore and cross-shore currents ( ≈ 1 m s-1).

  5. The stability of a zonally averaged thermohaline circulation model

    CERN Document Server

    Schmidt, G A

    1995-01-01

    A combination of analytical and numerical techniques are used to efficiently determine the qualitative and quantitative behaviour of a one-basin zonally averaged thermohaline circulation ocean model. In contrast to earlier studies which use time stepping to find the steady solutions, the steady state equations are first solved directly to obtain the multiple equilibria under identical mixed boundary conditions. This approach is based on the differentiability of the governing equations and especially the convection scheme. A linear stability analysis is then performed, in which the normal modes and corresponding eigenvalues are found for the various equilibrium states. Resonant periodic solutions superimposed on these states are predicted for various types of forcing. The results are used to gain insight into the solutions obtained by Mysak, Stocker and Huang in a previous numerical study in which the eddy diffusivities were varied in a randomly forced one-basin zonally averaged model. Resonant stable oscillat...

  6. Optimisation of a parallel ocean general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. I. Beare

    Full Text Available This paper presents the development of a general-purpose parallel ocean circulation model, for use on a wide range of computer platforms, from traditional scalar machines to workstation clusters and massively parallel processors. Parallelism is provided, as a modular option, via high-level message-passing routines, thus hiding the technical intricacies from the user. An initial implementation highlights that the parallel efficiency of the model is adversely affected by a number of factors, for which optimisations are discussed and implemented. The resulting ocean code is portable and, in particular, allows science to be achieved on local workstations that could otherwise only be undertaken on state-of-the-art supercomputers.

  7. South Atlantic circulation in a world ocean model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew H. England

    Full Text Available The circulation in the South Atlantic Ocean has been simulated within a global ocean general circulation model. Preliminary analysis of the modelled ocean circulation in the region indicates a rather close agreement of the simulated upper ocean flows with conventional notions of the large-scale geostrophic currents in the region. The modelled South Atlantic Ocean witnesses the return flow and export of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW at its northern boundary, the inflow of a rather barotropic Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC through the Drake Passage, and the inflow of warm saline Agulhas water around the Cape of Good Hope. The Agulhas leakage amounts to 8.7 Sv, within recent estimates of the mass transport shed westward at the Agulhas retroflection. Topographic steering of the ACC dominates the structure of flow in the circumpolar ocean. The Benguela Current is seen to be fed by a mixture of saline Indian Ocean water (originating from the Agulhas Current and fresher Subantarctic surface water (originating in the ACC. The Benguela Current is seen to modify its flow and fate with depth; near the surface it flows north-westwards bifurcating most of its transport northward into the North Atlantic Ocean (for ultimate replacement of North Atlantic surface waters lost to the NADW conveyor. Deeper in the water column, more of the Benguela Current is destined to return with the Brazil Current, though northward flows are still generated where the Benguela Current extension encounters the coast of South America. At intermediate levels, these northward currents trace the flow of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW equatorward, though even more AAIW is seen to recirculate poleward in the subtropical gyre. In spite of the model's rather coarse resolution, some subtle features of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence are simulated rather well, including the latitude at which the two currents meet. Conceptual diagrams of the recirculation and interocean

  8. Feature Extraction for Structural Dynamics Model Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farrar, Charles [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Nishio, Mayuko [Yokohama University; Hemez, Francois [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Stull, Chris [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Park, Gyuhae [Chonnam Univesity; Cornwell, Phil [Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology; Figueiredo, Eloi [Universidade Lusófona; Luscher, D. J. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Worden, Keith [University of Sheffield

    2016-01-13

    As structural dynamics becomes increasingly non-modal, stochastic and nonlinear, finite element model-updating technology must adopt the broader notions of model validation and uncertainty quantification. For example, particular re-sampling procedures must be implemented to propagate uncertainty through a forward calculation, and non-modal features must be defined to analyze nonlinear data sets. The latter topic is the focus of this report, but first, some more general comments regarding the concept of model validation will be discussed.

  9. Model Validation in Ontology Based Transformations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús M. Almendros-Jiménez

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Model Driven Engineering (MDE is an emerging approach of software engineering. MDE emphasizes the construction of models from which the implementation should be derived by applying model transformations. The Ontology Definition Meta-model (ODM has been proposed as a profile for UML models of the Web Ontology Language (OWL. In this context, transformations of UML models can be mapped into ODM/OWL transformations. On the other hand, model validation is a crucial task in model transformation. Meta-modeling permits to give a syntactic structure to source and target models. However, semantic requirements have to be imposed on source and target models. A given transformation will be sound when source and target models fulfill the syntactic and semantic requirements. In this paper, we present an approach for model validation in ODM based transformations. Adopting a logic programming based transformational approach we will show how it is possible to transform and validate models. Properties to be validated range from structural and semantic requirements of models (pre and post conditions to properties of the transformation (invariants. The approach has been applied to a well-known example of model transformation: the Entity-Relationship (ER to Relational Model (RM transformation.

  10. A zonally symmetric model for the monsoon-Hadley circulation with stochastic convective forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    De La Chevrotière, Michèle; Khouider, Boualem

    2016-09-01

    the other advective part is a nilpotent matrix, which is solved via the method of lines. Validation tests using a synthetic exact solution are presented, and formal second-order convergence under grid refinement is demonstrated. Moreover, the model is tested under realistic monsoon conditions, and the ability of the model to simulate key features of the monsoon circulation is illustrated in two distinct parameter regimes.

  11. A zonally symmetric model for the monsoon-Hadley circulation with stochastic convective forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    De La Chevrotière, Michèle; Khouider, Boualem

    2017-02-01

    the other advective part is a nilpotent matrix, which is solved via the method of lines. Validation tests using a synthetic exact solution are presented, and formal second-order convergence under grid refinement is demonstrated. Moreover, the model is tested under realistic monsoon conditions, and the ability of the model to simulate key features of the monsoon circulation is illustrated in two distinct parameter regimes.

  12. Modeling ocean circulation and biogeochemical variability in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Z.; He, R.; Fennel, K.; Cai, W.-J.; Lohrenz, S.; Hopkinson, C.

    2013-11-01

    A three-dimensional coupled physical-biogeochemical model is applied to simulate and examine temporal and spatial variability of circulation and biogeochemical cycling in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). The model is driven by realistic atmospheric forcing, open boundary conditions from a data assimilative global ocean circulation model, and observed freshwater and terrestrial nitrogen input from major rivers. A 7 yr model hindcast (2004-2010) was performed, and validated against satellite observed sea surface height, surface chlorophyll, and in situ observations including coastal sea level, ocean temperature, salinity, and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) concentration. The model hindcast revealed clear seasonality in DIN, phytoplankton and zooplankton distributions in the GoM. An empirical orthogonal function analysis indicated a phase-locked pattern among DIN, phytoplankton and zooplankton concentrations. The GoM shelf nitrogen budget was also quantified, revealing that on an annual basis the DIN input is largely balanced by the removal through denitrification (an equivalent of ~ 80% of DIN input) and offshore exports to the deep ocean (an equivalent of ~ 17% of DIN input).

  13. Modeling ocean circulation and biogeochemical variability in the Gulf of Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Xue

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available A three-dimensional coupled physical-biogeochemical model is applied to simulate and examine temporal and spatial variability of circulation and biogeochemical cycling in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM. The model is driven by realistic atmospheric forcing, open boundary conditions from a data assimilative global ocean circulation model, and observed freshwater and terrestrial nutrient input from major rivers. A 7 yr model hindcast (2004–2010 was performed, and validated against satellite observed sea surface height, surface chlorophyll, and in-situ observations including coastal sea-level, ocean temperature, salinity, and nutrient concentration. The model hindcast revealed clear seasonality in nutrient, phytoplankton and zooplankton distributions in the GoM. An Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis indicated a phase-locked pattern among nutrient, phytoplankton and zooplankton concentrations. The GoM shelf nutrient budget was also quantified, revealing that on an annual basis ~80% of nutrient input was denitrified on the shelf and ~17% was exported to the deep ocean.

  14. Modeling of sulfur oxide removal in circulating fluidized bed absorbers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mao, D.; Edwards, J.R.; Kuznetsov, A.V. [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States). Dept. of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering; Srivastava, R. [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States). Air Pollution Prevention and Control Division

    2002-07-01

    This paper presents a model to simulate a circulating fluidized bed absorber (CFBA) that combines flow, mixing, and reaction through residence time distribution (RTD). These parameters are often overlooked in existing simulation models. In addition, the paper presents a newly developed gas-solid reaction model for sulphur dioxide removal by limestone. For the reaction model that considers RTD inside the core and annulus regions of CFBA, the macrochemical reaction is simulated according to microchemical reaction dynamics. The proposed model can predict sulphur dioxide and limestone distributions inside the CFBA and calculate how much limestone is needed to remove an appropriate amount of sulphur dioxide. Sulphur dioxide concentration at the outlet of the CFBA decreases as the distance of the CFBA increases from the bottom of the core region. Limestone concentration varies only very slightly in the core region, suggesting that limestone in the CFBA is efficiently utilized to remove sulphur oxide. Sulphur dioxide partial pressure at the exit of the CFBA decreases as fresh limestone increases at the inlet to the CFBA. 16 refs., 8 figs.

  15. Non-hydrostatic general circulation model of the Venus atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodin, Alexander V.; Mingalev, Igor; Orlov, Konstantin; Ignatiev, Nikolay

    We present the first non-hydrostatic global circulation model of the Venus atmosphere based on the complete set of gas dynamics equations. The model employs a spatially uniform triangular mesh that allows to avoid artificial damping of the dynamical processes in the polar regions, with altitude as a vertical coordinate. Energy conversion from the solar flux into atmospheric motion is described via explicitly specified heating and cooling rates or, alternatively, with help of the radiation block based on comprehensive treatment of the Venus atmosphere spectroscopy, including line mixing effects in CO2 far wing absorption. Momentum equations are integrated using the semi-Lagrangian explicit scheme that provides high accuracy of mass and energy conservation. Due to high vertical grid resolution required by gas dynamics calculations, the model is integrated on the short time step less than one second. The model reliably repro-duces zonal superrotation, smoothly extending far below the cloud layer, tidal patterns at the cloud level and above, and non-rotating, sun-synchronous global convective cell in the upper atmosphere. One of the most interesting features of the model is the development of the polar vortices resembling those observed by Venus Express' VIRTIS instrument. Initial analysis of the simulation results confirms the hypothesis that it is thermal tides that provides main driver for the superrotation.

  16. The circulation of Icelandic waters – a modelling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Logemann

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The three-dimensional flow, temperature and salinity fields of the North Atlantic including the Arctic Ocean covering the time period 1992 to 2006 are simulated with the numerical ocean model CODE. The model reveals several new insights and previously unknown structures which help us to clarify open questions on the regional oceanography of Icelandic waters. These relate to the structure and geographical distribution of the coastal current, the primary forcing of the North Icelandic Irminger Current (NIIC, the path of the Atlantic Water south-east of Iceland and the structure of the North Icelandic Jet (NIJ. The model's adaptively refined computational mesh has a maximum resolution of 1 km horizontal and 2.5 m vertical in Icelandic waters. CTD profiles from this region and the river discharge of 46 Icelandic watersheds, computed by the hydrological model WaSiM, are assimilated into the simulation. The model realistically reproduces the established elements of the circulation around Iceland. However, analysis of the simulated mean flow field also provides further insights. It suggests a distinct freshwater-induced coastal current that only exists along the south-west and west coasts which is accompanied by a counter-directed undercurrent. The simulated transport of Atlantic Water over the Icelandic shelf takes place in a symmetrical system of two currents, with the established NIIC over the north-western and northern shelf, and a current over the southern and south-eastern shelf herein called the South Icelandic Current (SIC. Both currents are driven by topographically induced distortions of the Arctic Front's barotropic pressure field. The SIC is simulated to be an upstream precursor of the Faroe Current (FC. The recently discovered North Icelandic Jet (NIJ also features in the model predictions and is found to be forced by the baroclinic pressure field of the Arctic Front, to originate east of the Kolbeinsey Ridge and to have a volume transport

  17. Quantitative model validation techniques: new insights

    CERN Document Server

    Ling, You

    2012-01-01

    This paper develops new insights into quantitative methods for the validation of computational model prediction. Four types of methods are investigated, namely classical and Bayesian hypothesis testing, a reliability-based method, and an area metric-based method. Traditional Bayesian hypothesis testing is extended based on interval hypotheses on distribution parameters and equality hypotheses on probability distributions, in order to validate models with deterministic/stochastic output for given inputs. Two types of validation experiments are considered - fully characterized (all the model/experimental inputs are measured and reported as point values) and partially characterized (some of the model/experimental inputs are not measured or are reported as intervals). Bayesian hypothesis testing can minimize the risk in model selection by properly choosing the model acceptance threshold, and its results can be used in model averaging to avoid Type I/II errors. It is shown that Bayesian interval hypothesis testing...

  18. Venusian Polar Vortex reproduced by a general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ando, Hiroki; Sugimoto, Norihiko; Takagi, Masahiro

    2016-10-01

    Unlike the polar vortices observed in the Earth, Mars and Titan atmospheres, the observed Venus polar vortex is warmer than the mid-latitudes at cloud-top levels (~65 km). This warm polar vortex is zonally surrounded by a cold latitude band located at ~60 degree latitude, which is a unique feature called 'cold collar' in the Venus atmosphere [e.g. Taylor et al. 1980; Piccioni et al. 2007]. Although these structures have been observed in numerous previous observations, the formation mechanism is still unknown. In addition, an axi-asymmetric feature is always seen in the warm polar vortex. It changes temporally and sometimes shows a hot polar dipole or S-shaped structure as shown by a lot of infrared measurements [e.g. Garate-Lopez et al. 2013; 2015]. However, its vertical structure has not been investigated. To solve these problems, we performed a numerical simulation of the Venus atmospheric circulation using a general circulation model named AFES for Venus [Sugimoto et al. 2014] and reproduced these puzzling features.And then, the reproduced structures of the atmosphere and the axi-asymmetirc feature are compared with some previous observational results.In addition, the quasi-periodical zonal-mean zonal wind fluctuation is also seen in the Venus polar vortex reproduced in our model. This might be able to explain some observational results [e.g. Luz et al. 2007] and implies that the polar vacillation might also occur in the Venus atmosphere, which is silimar to the Earth's polar atmosphere. We will also show some initial results about this point in this presentation.

  19. A Model of the Solar Chromosphere: Structure and Internal Circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Paul

    2017-08-01

    A model of the solar chromosphere is proposed that consists of two fundamentally different regions: a lower region and an upper region. The lower region is covered mostly by weak locally-closed magnetic field with small network areas of extremely strong locally-open field. The field in the upper region is relatively uniform and locally-open connecting to the corona. The chromosphere is heated by strong collisional damping of Alfvén waves, which are driven by turbulent motions below the photosphere. The heating rate depends on the field strength, wave power from the photosphere, and altitude in the chromosphere. Waves in the inter-network area are mostly damped in the lower region supporting radiation in the lower chromosphere. The waves in the network area, carrying more Poynting flux, are only weakly damped in the lower region. They propagate into the upper region. As the thermal pressure decreases with height, the network field expands to form the magnetic canopy where damping of the waves from the network area supports radiation in the whole upper region. Because of the vertical stratification and horizontally nonuniform distribution of the magnetic field and heating, two vertically located circulation cells are formed on each side of the strong field. The two circulation cells distort the magnetic field and reinforce the funnel-canopy-shaped magnetic geometry. The model is based on classical processes and semi-quantitative. The estimates are constrained according to observational knowledge. No anomalous process is invoked or needed. Overall, the heating mechanism is able to damp 50% of the total wave energy.

  20. Impact of boundary regions on the interior circulation of the California Current System in a regional modeling framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veneziani, M.; Edwards, C.; Moore, A.

    2008-12-01

    We use the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to model the circulation of the California Current System (CCS) using ECCO-GODAE products to force the model at the open boundaries of the domain. We investigate the impact that lateral boundary forcing (and the boundary region in general) has on particular metrics of the interior circulation by adopting both an adjoint model and a traditional sensitivity approach. Adjoint methods are naturally suited to sensitivity studies as they provide the direct dependencies of circulation metrics on uncertainties of the model initial conditions, surface and lateral external forcing, and model parameters, but their results are only valid within the time scale during which the linearity assumption underlying adjoint models can be considered to hold. More traditional sensitivity studies must be conducted to investigate longer time scales. We describe the adjoint model results for two metrics that represent the upwelling processes of the Central California region and the mean sea level field of the coastal circulation, respectively. The spatial distribution of the adjoint sensitivity fields allows us to quantify the contribution of the boundary regions over a biweekly time scale. We investigate longer time scales by adopting two methods: 1) apply different ECCO products at the open boundaries and evaluate mean stratification changes in the CalCOFI coastal region; 2) release passive tracers at the boundaries and calculate ventilation time scales and pathways from the boundary areas to the CCS interior.

  1. The circulation of Icelandic waters – a modelling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Logemann

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The three-dimensional flow, temperature and salinity fields of the North Atlantic, including the Arctic Ocean, covering the time period 1992 to 2006 are simulated with the numerical ocean model CODE. The simulation reveals several new insights and previously unknown structures which help us to clarify open questions on the regional oceanography of Icelandic waters. These relate to the structure and geographical distribution of the coastal current, the primary forcing of the North Icelandic Irminger Current (NIIC and the path of the Atlantic Water south-east of Iceland. The model's adaptively refined computational mesh has a maximum resolution of 1 km horizontal and 2.5 m vertical in Icelandic waters. CTD profiles from this region and the river discharge of 46 Icelandic watersheds, computed by the hydrological model WaSiM, are assimilated into the simulation. The model realistically reproduces the established elements of the circulation around Iceland. However, analysis of the simulated mean flow field also provides further insights. It suggests a distinct freshwater-induced coastal current that only exists along the south-west and west coasts, which is accompanied by a counter-directed undercurrent. The simulated transport of Atlantic Water over the Icelandic shelf takes place in a symmetrical system of two currents, with the established NIIC over the north-western and northern shelf, and a hitherto unnamed current over the southern and south-eastern shelf, which is simulated to be an upstream precursor of the Faroe Current (FC. Both currents are driven by barotropic pressure gradients induced by a sea level slope across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge. The recently discovered North Icelandic Jet (NIJ also features in the model predictions and is found to be forced by the baroclinic pressure field of the Arctic Front, to originate east of the Kolbeinsey Ridge and to have a volume transport of around 1.5 Sv within northern Denmark Strait. The

  2. Base Flow Model Validation Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The program focuses on turbulence modeling enhancements for predicting high-speed rocket base flows. A key component of the effort is the collection of high-fidelity...

  3. Stable isotopes of fossil teeth corroborate key general circulation model predictions for the Last Glacial Maximum in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohn, Matthew J.; McKay, Moriah

    2010-11-01

    Oxygen isotope data provide a key test of general circulation models (GCMs) for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in North America, which have otherwise proved difficult to validate. High δ18O pedogenic carbonates in central Wyoming have been interpreted to indicate increased summer precipitation sourced from the Gulf of Mexico. Here we show that tooth enamel δ18O of large mammals, which is strongly correlated with local water and precipitation δ18O, is lower during the LGM in Wyoming, not higher. Similar data from Texas, California, Florida and Arizona indicate higher δ18O values than in the Holocene, which is also predicted by GCMs. Tooth enamel data closely validate some recent models of atmospheric circulation and precipitation δ18O, including an increase in the proportion of winter precipitation for central North America, and summer precipitation in the southern US, but suggest aridity can bias pedogenic carbonate δ18O values significantly.

  4. The thrombotic potential of circulating tumor microemboli: computational modeling of circulating tumor cell-induced coagulation

    OpenAIRE

    Phillips, Kevin G.; Lee, Angela M.; Tormoen, Garth W.; Rigg, Rachel A.; Kolatkar, Anand; Luttgen, Madelyn; Bethel, Kelly; Bazhenova, Lyudmila; Kuhn, Peter; Newton, Paul; McCarty, Owen J.T.

    2014-01-01

    Thrombotic events can herald the diagnosis of cancer, preceding any cancer-related clinical symptoms. Patients with cancer are at a 4- to 7-fold increased risk of suffering from venous thromboembolism (VTE), with ∼7,000 patients with lung cancer presenting from VTEs. However, the physical biology underlying cancer-associated VTE remains poorly understood. Several lines of evidence suggest that the shedding of tissue factor (TF)-positive circulating tumor cells (CTCs) and microparticles from p...

  5. Model validation: Correlation for updating

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    D J Ewins

    2000-06-01

    In this paper, a review is presented of the various methods which are available for the purpose of performing a systematic comparison and correlation between two sets of vibration data. In the present case, the application of interest is in conducting this correlation process as a prelude to model correlation or updating activity.

  6. Circulating mitochondrial DNA in patients in the ICU as a marker of mortality: derivation and validation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kiichi Nakahira

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA is a critical activator of inflammation and the innate immune system. However, mtDNA level has not been tested for its role as a biomarker in the intensive care unit (ICU. We hypothesized that circulating cell-free mtDNA levels would be associated with mortality and improve risk prediction in ICU patients. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Analyses of mtDNA levels were performed on blood samples obtained from two prospective observational cohort studies of ICU patients (the Brigham and Women's Hospital Registry of Critical Illness [BWH RoCI, n = 200] and Molecular Epidemiology of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome [ME ARDS, n = 243]. mtDNA levels in plasma were assessed by measuring the copy number of the NADH dehydrogenase 1 gene using quantitative real-time PCR. Medical ICU patients with an elevated mtDNA level (≥3,200 copies/µl plasma had increased odds of dying within 28 d of ICU admission in both the BWH RoCI (odds ratio [OR] 7.5, 95% CI 3.6-15.8, p = 1×10(-7 and ME ARDS (OR 8.4, 95% CI 2.9-24.2, p = 9×10(-5 cohorts, while no evidence for association was noted in non-medical ICU patients. The addition of an elevated mtDNA level improved the net reclassification index (NRI of 28-d mortality among medical ICU patients when added to clinical models in both the BWH RoCI (NRI 79%, standard error 14%, p<1×10(-4 and ME ARDS (NRI 55%, standard error 20%, p = 0.007 cohorts. In the BWH RoCI cohort, those with an elevated mtDNA level had an increased risk of death, even in analyses limited to patients with sepsis or acute respiratory distress syndrome. Study limitations include the lack of data elucidating the concise pathological roles of mtDNA in the patients, and the limited numbers of measurements for some of biomarkers. CONCLUSIONS: Increased mtDNA levels are associated with ICU mortality, and inclusion of mtDNA level improves risk prediction in medical ICU patients. Our data suggest that mt

  7. Mathematical Modeling of the Vacuum Circulation Refining Processof Molten Steel

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    魏季和

    2003-01-01

    The available studies in the literature on mathematical modeling of the vacuum circulation (RH) refining process of molten steel have briefly been reviewed. The latest advances obtained by the author with his research group have been Summarized. On the basis of the mass and momentum balances in the system, a new mathematical model for decarburization and degassing during the RH and RH-KTB refining processes of molten steel was proposed and developed. The refining roles of the three reaction sites, i.e. the up-snorkel zone, the droplet group and steel bath in the vacuum vessel, were considered in the model. It was assumed that the mass transfer of reactive components in the molten steel is the rate control step of the refining reactions. And the friction losses and drags of flows in the snorkels and vacuum vessel were all counted. The model was applied to the refining of molten steel in a multifunction RH degasser of 90 t capacity. The decarburization and degassing processes in the degasser under the RH and RH-KTB operating condi-tions were modeled and analyzed using this model. Besides, proceeded from the two-resistance mass transfer theory and the mass bal-ance of sulphur in the system, a kinetic model for the desulphurization by powder injection and blowing in the RH refining of molten steel was developed. Modeling and predictions of the process of injecting and blowing the lime based powder flux under assumed oper-ating modes with the different initial contents of sulphur and amounts of powder injected and blown in a RH degasser of 300 t capacity were carried out using the model. It was demonstrated that for the RH and RH-KTB refining processes, and the desulphurization by powder injection and blowing in the RH refining, the results predicted by the models were all in good agreement respectively with data from industrial experiments and practice. These models may be expected to offer some useful information and a reliable basis for de-termining and optimizing

  8. System model of a natural circulation integral test facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galvin, Mark R.

    The Department of Nuclear Engineering and Radiation Health Physics (NE/RHP) at Oregon State University (OSU) has been developing an innovative modular reactor plant concept since being initiated with a Department of Energy (DoE) grant in 1999. This concept, the Multi-Application Small Light Water Reactor (MASLWR), is an integral pressurized water reactor (PWR) plant that utilizes natural circulation flow in the primary and employs advanced passive safety features. The OSU MASLWR test facility is an electrically heated integral effects facility, scaled from the MASLWR concept design, that has been previously used to assess the feasibility of the concept design safety approach. To assist in evaluating operational scenarios, a simulation tool that models the test facility and is based on both test facility experimental data and analytical methods has been developed. The tool models both the test facility electric core and a simulated nuclear core, allowing evaluation of a broad spectrum of operational scenarios to identify those scenarios that should be explored experimentally using the test facility or design-quality multi-physics tools. Using the simulation tool, the total cost of experimentation and analysis can be reduced by directing time and resources towards the operational scenarios of interest.

  9. Intraseasonal Variability in an Aquaplanet General Circulation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam H Sobel

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available An aquaplanet atmospheric general circulation model simulation with a robust intraseasonal oscillation is analyzed. The SST boundary condition resembles the observed December-April average with continents omitted, although with the meridional SST gradient reduced to be one-quarter of that observed poleward of 10 ̊ latitude. Slow, regular eastward propagation at 5 m s21 in winds and precipitation with amplitude greater than that in the observed MJO is clearly identified in unfiltered fields. Local precipitation rate is a strongly non-linear and increasing function of column precipitable water, as in observations. The model intraseasonal oscillation resembles a moisture mode that is destabilized by wind-evaporation feedback, and that propagates eastward through advection of anomalous humidity by the sum of perturbation winds and mean westerly flow. A series of sensitivity experiments are conducted to test hypothesized mechanisms. A mechanism denial experiment in which intraseasonal latent heat flux variability is removed largely eliminates intraseasonal wind and precipitation variability. Reducing the lower-troposphere westerly flow in the warm pool by reducing the zonal SST gradient slows eastward propagation, supporting the importance of horizontal advection by the low-level wind to eastward propagation. A zonally symmetric SST basic state produces weak and unrealistic intraseasonal variability between 30 and 90 day timescales, indicating the importance of mean low-level westerly winds and hence a realistic phase relationship between precipitation and surface flux anomalies for producing realistic tropical intraseasonal variability.

  10. Validation of the Hot Strip Mill Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richard Shulkosky; David Rosberg; Jerrud Chapman

    2005-03-30

    The Hot Strip Mill Model (HSMM) is an off-line, PC based software originally developed by the University of British Columbia (UBC) and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) under the AISI/DOE Advanced Process Control Program. The HSMM was developed to predict the temperatures, deformations, microstructure evolution and mechanical properties of steel strip or plate rolled in a hot mill. INTEG process group inc. undertook the current task of enhancing and validating the technology. With the support of 5 North American steel producers, INTEG process group tested and validated the model using actual operating data from the steel plants and enhanced the model to improve prediction results.

  11. Ground-water models: Validate or invalidate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bredehoeft, J.D.; Konikow, L.F.

    1993-01-01

    The word validation has a clear meaning to both the scientific community and the general public. Within the scientific community the validation of scientific theory has been the subject of philosophical debate. The philosopher of science, Karl Popper, argued that scientific theory cannot be validated, only invalidated. Popper’s view is not the only opinion in this debate; however, many scientists today agree with Popper (including the authors). To the general public, proclaiming that a ground-water model is validated carries with it an aura of correctness that we do not believe many of us who model would claim. We can place all the caveats we wish, but the public has its own understanding of what the word implies. Using the word valid with respect to models misleads the public; verification carries with it similar connotations as far as the public is concerned. Our point is this: using the terms validation and verification are misleading, at best. These terms should be abandoned by the ground-water community.

  12. Hospitable archean climates simulated by a general circulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, E T; Toon, O B

    2013-07-01

    Evidence from ancient sediments indicates that liquid water and primitive life were present during the Archean despite the faint young Sun. To date, studies of Archean climate typically utilize simplified one-dimensional models that ignore clouds and ice. Here, we use an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model to simulate the climate circa 2.8 billion years ago when the Sun was 20% dimmer than it is today. Surface properties are assumed to be equal to those of the present day, while ocean heat transport varies as a function of sea ice extent. Present climate is duplicated with 0.06 bar of CO2 or alternatively with 0.02 bar of CO2 and 0.001 bar of CH4. Hot Archean climates, as implied by some isotopic reconstructions of ancient marine cherts, are unattainable even in our warmest simulation having 0.2 bar of CO2 and 0.001 bar of CH4. However, cooler climates with significant polar ice, but still dominated by open ocean, can be maintained with modest greenhouse gas amounts, posing no contradiction with CO2 constraints deduced from paleosols or with practical limitations on CH4 due to the formation of optically thick organic hazes. Our results indicate that a weak version of the faint young Sun paradox, requiring only that some portion of the planet's surface maintain liquid water, may be resolved with moderate greenhouse gas inventories. Thus, hospitable late Archean climates are easily obtained in our climate model.

  13. Gas-solid two-phase flow in the riser of circulating fluidized beds: mathematical modelling and numerical simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cabezas Gomez, Luben; Milioli, Fernando Eduardo [Sao Paulo Univ., Sao Carlos, SP (Brazil). Escola de Engenharia. Nucleo de Engenharia Termica e Fluidos]. E-mails: lubencg@sc.usp.br; milioli@sc.usp.br

    2001-06-01

    A mathematical model is developed for gas-solids flows in circulating fluidized beds. An Eulerian formulation is followed based on the two-fluids model approach where both the fluid and the particulate phases are treated as a continuum. The physical modelling is discussed, including the formulation of boundary conditions and the description of the numerical methodology. Results of numerical simulation are presented and discussed. The model is validated through comparison to experiment, and simulation is performed to investigate the effects on the flow hydrodynamics of the solids viscosity. (author)

  14. Validating the passenger traffic model for Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgård, Christian Hansen; VUK, Goran

    2006-01-01

    The paper presents a comprehensive validation procedure for the passenger traffic model for Copenhagen based on external data from the Danish national travel survey and traffic counts. The model was validated for the years 2000 to 2004, with 2004 being of particular interest because the Copenhagen...... Metro became operational in autumn 2002. We observed that forecasts from the demand sub-models agree well with the data from the 2000 national travel survey, with the mode choice forecasts in particular being a good match with the observed modal split. The results of the 2000 car assignment model...... matched the observed traffic better than those of the transit assignment model. With respect to the metro forecasts, the model over-predicts metro passenger flows by 10% to 50%. The wide range of findings from the project resulted in two actions. First, a project was started in January 2005 to upgrade...

  15. Structural system identification: Structural dynamics model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Red-Horse, J.R.

    1997-04-01

    Structural system identification is concerned with the development of systematic procedures and tools for developing predictive analytical models based on a physical structure`s dynamic response characteristics. It is a multidisciplinary process that involves the ability (1) to define high fidelity physics-based analysis models, (2) to acquire accurate test-derived information for physical specimens using diagnostic experiments, (3) to validate the numerical simulation model by reconciling differences that inevitably exist between the analysis model and the experimental data, and (4) to quantify uncertainties in the final system models and subsequent numerical simulations. The goal of this project was to develop structural system identification techniques and software suitable for both research and production applications in code and model validation.

  16. Model performance analysis and model validation in logistic regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosa Arboretti Giancristofaro

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a new model validation procedure for a logistic regression model is presented. At first, we illustrate a brief review of different techniques of model validation. Next, we define a number of properties required for a model to be considered "good", and a number of quantitative performance measures. Lastly, we describe a methodology for the assessment of the performance of a given model by using an example taken from a management study.

  17. Meridional overturning circulation: stability and ocean feedbacks in a box model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cimatoribus, A.A.; Drijfhout, S.S.; Dijkstra, H.A.

    2014-01-01

    A box model of the inter-hemispheric Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is developed, including a variable pycnocline depth for the tropical and subtropical regions. The circulation is forced by winds over a periodic channel in the south and by freshwater forcing at the surface. The model

  18. Response of Mediterranean circulation to Miocene shoaling and closure of the Indian Gateway : A model study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De La Vara, Alba; Meijer, Paul

    2016-01-01

    In this regional ocean model study, we explore the effect of the Early to Middle Miocene shoaling and closure of the Indian Gateway on Mediterranean circulation and its exchange with the adjacent oceans. For this we use the regional ocean circulation model "sbPOM" and a collection of bathymetries cr

  19. Feature extraction for structural dynamics model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Farrar, Charles [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Park, Gyuhae [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Nishio, Mayuko [UNIV OF TOKYO; Worden, Keith [UNIV OF SHEFFIELD; Takeda, Nobuo [UNIV OF TOKYO

    2010-11-08

    This study focuses on defining and comparing response features that can be used for structural dynamics model validation studies. Features extracted from dynamic responses obtained analytically or experimentally, such as basic signal statistics, frequency spectra, and estimated time-series models, can be used to compare characteristics of structural system dynamics. By comparing those response features extracted from experimental data and numerical outputs, validation and uncertainty quantification of numerical model containing uncertain parameters can be realized. In this study, the applicability of some response features to model validation is first discussed using measured data from a simple test-bed structure and the associated numerical simulations of these experiments. issues that must be considered were sensitivity, dimensionality, type of response, and presence or absence of measurement noise in the response. Furthermore, we illustrate a comparison method of multivariate feature vectors for statistical model validation. Results show that the outlier detection technique using the Mahalanobis distance metric can be used as an effective and quantifiable technique for selecting appropriate model parameters. However, in this process, one must not only consider the sensitivity of the features being used, but also correlation of the parameters being compared.

  20. Adaptive Error Estimation in Linearized Ocean General Circulation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chechelnitsky, Michael Y.

    1999-01-01

    Data assimilation methods are routinely used in oceanography. The statistics of the model and measurement errors need to be specified a priori. This study addresses the problem of estimating model and measurement error statistics from observations. We start by testing innovation based methods of adaptive error estimation with low-dimensional models in the North Pacific (5-60 deg N, 132-252 deg E) to TOPEX/POSEIDON (TIP) sea level anomaly data, acoustic tomography data from the ATOC project, and the MIT General Circulation Model (GCM). A reduced state linear model that describes large scale internal (baroclinic) error dynamics is used. The methods are shown to be sensitive to the initial guess for the error statistics and the type of observations. A new off-line approach is developed, the covariance matching approach (CMA), where covariance matrices of model-data residuals are "matched" to their theoretical expectations using familiar least squares methods. This method uses observations directly instead of the innovations sequence and is shown to be related to the MT method and the method of Fu et al. (1993). Twin experiments using the same linearized MIT GCM suggest that altimetric data are ill-suited to the estimation of internal GCM errors, but that such estimates can in theory be obtained using acoustic data. The CMA is then applied to T/P sea level anomaly data and a linearization of a global GFDL GCM which uses two vertical modes. We show that the CMA method can be used with a global model and a global data set, and that the estimates of the error statistics are robust. We show that the fraction of the GCM-T/P residual variance explained by the model error is larger than that derived in Fukumori et al.(1999) with the method of Fu et al.(1993). Most of the model error is explained by the barotropic mode. However, we find that impact of the change in the error statistics on the data assimilation estimates is very small. This is explained by the large

  1. Hemodynamic changes in the hepatic circulation after the modulation of the splenic circulation in an in vivo human experimental model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akamatsu, Nobuhisa; Sugawara, Yasuhiko; Satou, Shouichi; Mitsui, Tetsuya; Ninomiya, Riki; Komagome, Masahiko; Ozawa, Fumiaki; Beck, Yoshifumi

    2014-01-01

    Recent advances in liver surgery have highlighted the effects of the splenic circulation on the hepatic circulation with respect to the hepatic arterial buffer response (HABR). The aim of the present study was to investigate the actual hemodynamic effects of splenic artery embolization/ligation and splenectomy on the hepatic circulation in patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy through in vivo experimental models. In vivo models of splenic artery embolization/ligation (only splenic artery clamping) and splenectomy (simultaneous clamping of both the splenic artery and the splenic vein) were created in 40 patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy for various reasons. The portal venous flow velocity, the portal venous flow volume, the hepatic arterial flow velocity, and the hepatic arterial resistance index were measured with color Doppler ultrasonography. Clamping of the splenic artery induced an immediate and significant increase (16%) in the hepatic artery velocity (P splenic artery, the hepatic artery velocity remained significantly increased at the level of the initial clamping, and the portal venous flow significantly decreased (16%, P splenic vein, which was performed after the clamping of the splenic artery, resulted in an immediate and significant decrease (30%) in the portal venous flow (P splenic vein, there was no change in the portal flow, which remained significantly lower (28%) than the flow in controls, whereas the hepatic arterial flow further significantly increased (31%, P splenic artery embolization/ligation and splenectomy are effective for increasing hepatic arterial flow and decreasing portal flow, with splenectomy providing a greater advantage. The HABR underlies these hemodynamic changes.

  2. Modeling Coastal Ocean Optical Properties for Coupled Circulation and Ecosystem Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-07

    Modeling Coastal Ocean Optical Properties for Coupled Circulation and Ecosystem Models Curtis D. Mobley Sequoia Scientific , Inc. 2700 Richards...N00014D01610002 http://www.onr.navy.mil/sci_tech/32/322/ocean_optics_biology.asp LONG-TERM GOAL The overall goal of this work , now completed, was to...wrong by orders of magnitude in Case 2 or optically shallow waters. The objective of this work was develop a radiative transfer model that can be

  3. Validation, Optimization and Simulation of a Solar Thermoelectric Generator Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madkhali, Hadi Ali; Hamil, Ali; Lee, HoSung

    2017-08-01

    This study explores thermoelectrics as a viable option for small-scale solar thermal applications. Thermoelectric technology is based on the Seebeck effect, which states that a voltage is induced when a temperature gradient is applied to the junctions of two differing materials. This research proposes to analyze, validate, simulate, and optimize a prototype solar thermoelectric generator (STEG) model in order to increase efficiency. The intent is to further develop STEGs as a viable and productive energy source that limits pollution and reduces the cost of energy production. An empirical study (Kraemer et al. in Nat Mater 10:532, 2011) on the solar thermoelectric generator reported a high efficiency performance of 4.6%. The system had a vacuum glass enclosure, a flat panel (absorber), thermoelectric generator and water circulation for the cold side. The theoretical and numerical approach of this current study validated the experimental results from Kraemer's study to a high degree. The numerical simulation process utilizes a two-stage approach in ANSYS software for Fluent and Thermal-Electric Systems. The solar load model technique uses solar radiation under AM 1.5G conditions in Fluent. This analytical model applies Dr. Ho Sung Lee's theory of optimal design to improve the performance of the STEG system by using dimensionless parameters. Applying this theory, using two cover glasses and radiation shields, the STEG model can achieve a highest efficiency of 7%.

  4. Regimes of validity for balanced models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gent, Peter R.; McWilliams, James C.

    1983-07-01

    Scaling analyses are presented which delineate the atmospheric and oceanic regimes of validity for the family of balanced models described in Gent and McWilliams (1983a). The analyses follow and extend the classical work of Charney (1948) and others. The analyses use three non-dimensional parameters which represent the flow scale relative to the Earth's radius, the dominance of turbulent or wave-like processes, and the dominant component of the potential vorticity. For each regime, the models that are accurate both at leading order and through at least one higher order of accuracy in the appropriate small parameter are then identified. In particular, it is found that members of the balanced family are the appropriate models of higher-order accuracy over a broad range of parameter regimes. Examples are also given of particular atmospheric and oceanic phenomena which are in the regimes of validity for the different balanced models.

  5. Numerical model for wind-driven circulation in the Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Bahulayan, N.; Varadachari, V.V.R.

    experiments have shown that when a uniform wind stress in suddenly imposed over the sea surface, a steady circulation is generated after 50 h of numerical integration of model equations. The sensitivity of this model to bathymetry and coastal configuration...

  6. Validation of Hadronic Models in GEANT4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koi, Tatsumi; Wright, Dennis H.; /SLAC; Folger, Gunter; Ivanchenko, Vladimir; Kossov, Mikhail; Starkov, Nikolai; /CERN; Heikkinen, Aatos; /Helsinki Inst. of Phys.; Truscott,; Lei, Fan; /QinetiQ; Wellisch, Hans-Peter

    2007-09-26

    Geant4 is a software toolkit for the simulation of the passage of particles through matter. It has abundant hadronic models from thermal neutron interactions to ultra relativistic hadrons. An overview of validations in Geant4 hadronic physics is presented based on thin target measurements. In most cases, good agreement is available between Monte Carlo prediction and experimental data; however, several problems have been detected which require some improvement in the models.

  7. Validation of hadronic models in GEANT4

    CERN Document Server

    Koi, Tatsumi; Folger, Günter; Ivanchenko, Vladimir; Kossov, Mikhail; Starkov, Nikolai; Heikkinen, Aatos; Truscott, Pete; Lei, Fan; Wellisch, Hans-Peter

    2007-01-01

    Geant4 is a software toolkit for the simulation of the passage of particles through matter. It has abundant hadronic models from thermal neutron interactions to ultra relativistic hadrons. An overview of validations in Geant4 hadronic physics is presented based on thin-target measurements. In most cases, good agreement is available between Monte Carlo prediction and experimental data; however, several problems have been detected which require some improvement in the models.

  8. Numerical modeling of supercritical CO{sub 2} natural circulation loop

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Archana, V., E-mail: archanav@barc.gov.in [Homi Bhabha National Institute, Mumbai, Maharashtra 400 094 (India); Vaidya, A.M., E-mail: avaidya@barc.gov.in [Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai, Maharashtra 400 085 (India); Vijayan, P.K., E-mail: vijayanp@barc.gov.in [Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai, Maharashtra 400 085 (India)

    2015-11-15

    Highlights: • Supercritical CO{sub 2} natural circulation loop is modeled by in-house developed 1D and 2D axi-symmetric CFD codes. • Steady state characteristics of VHVC configuration of supercritical CO{sub 2} natural circulation loop are studied over a range of power. • Improved accuracy of predictions by 2D axi-symmetric formulation over 1D formulation is demonstrated. • The validity of correlations used in 1D model such as friction factor and heat transfer correlations is analyzed. • Simulation results shows normal, enhanced and deteriorated heat transfer regimes in supercritical CO{sub 2} natural circulation loop. - Abstract: The objective of this research project is to estimate steady state characteristics of supercritical natural circulation loop (SCNCL) using computational methodology and to compliment on-going experimental investigation of the same at the authors’ organization. For computational investigation, a couple of in-house codes are developed. At first, formulation and a corresponding computer program for the SCNCL based on conservation equations written in 1D framework is developed. Comparison of 1D code results with experimental data showed that, under some operating conditions, there is deviation between computed results and experimental data. To improve predictive capability, it was thought to model the SCNCL using conservation equations in 2D axi-symmetric framework. An existing 2D axi-symmetric code (named NAFA), which was developed and validated for supercritical fluid flow in pipes, is modified for natural circulation loop (NCL) geometry. The modified code, named NAFA-Loop, is subsequently used to compute the steady state characteristics of the SCNCL. These results are compared with experimental data. The steady state characteristics such as the variation of mass flow rate with power, velocity and temperature profiles in heater and cooler are studied using NAFA-Loop. The computed velocity and temperature fields show that the

  9. Model study of the upper circulation in the Sulu Sea and its relation to the South China Sea circulation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CAI Shuqun; HE Yinghui; LONG Xiaomin; WANG Shengan

    2008-01-01

    According to the satellite remote sensing monthly mean sea surface temperature data from 1998 to 2002, it is shown that, the Sulu Sea is dominated by a cold eddy both in summer and winter. A coupled single-layer/two-layer model is employed here to study the summery and wintry characteristics and dynamic mechanism of the upper circulation in the Sulu Sea. According to the numerical experiments, it is found that, due to the local monsoon stress cud, the upper circulation in the Sulu Sea is dominated by a weak anticyclonic eddy in summer and a strong cyclonic eddy in winter. Once there is a large outflow via the Sibutu Passage flowing out of the Sulu Sea in summer, the upper circulation in the Sulu Sea may be dominated by a cyclonic eddy instead of the normal anti- cyclonic one. Moreover, in summer, the water exchange between the Sulu Sea and South China Sea via the Mindoro and Balabac Straits might have some effect on the separation position and strength of the northward western boundary current next to the Indo - China Peninsula in the southern South China Sea.

  10. The annual pressure cycle on Mars: Results from the LMD Martian atmospheric general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hourdin, Frederic; Forget, Francois; Talagrand, O.

    1993-01-01

    We have been developing a General Circulation Model (GCM) of the martian atmosphere since 1989. The model has been described rather extensively elsewhere and only the main characteristics are given here. The dynamical part of the model, adapted from the LMD terrestrial climate model, is based on a finite-difference formulation of the classical 'primitive equations of meteorology.' The radiative transfer code includes absorption and emission by CO2 (carefully validated by comparison to line-by-line calculations) and dust in the thermal range and absorption and scattering by dust in the visible range. Other physical parameterizations are included: modeling of vertical turbulent mixing, dry convective adjustment (in order to prevent vertical unstable temperature profiles), and a multilayer model of the thermal conduction in the soil. Finally, the condensation-sublimation of CO2 is introduced through specification of a pressure-dependent condensation temperature. The atmospheric and surface temperatures are prevented from falling below this critical temperature by condensation and direct precipitation onto the surface of atmospheric CO2. The only prespecified spatial fields are the surface thermal inertia, albedo, and topography.

  11. Bivariate spatial analysis of temperature and precipitation from general circulation models and observation proxies

    KAUST Repository

    Philbin, R.

    2015-05-22

    This study validates the near-surface temperature and precipitation output from decadal runs of eight atmospheric ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) against observational proxy data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis temperatures and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation data. We model the joint distribution of these two fields with a parsimonious bivariate Matérn spatial covariance model, accounting for the two fields\\' spatial cross-correlation as well as their own smoothnesses. We fit output from each AOGCM (30-year seasonal averages from 1981 to 2010) to a statistical model on each of 21 land regions. Both variance and smoothness values agree for both fields over all latitude bands except southern mid-latitudes. Our results imply that temperature fields have smaller smoothness coefficients than precipitation fields, while both have decreasing smoothness coefficients with increasing latitude. Models predict fields with smaller smoothness coefficients than observational proxy data for the tropics. The estimated spatial cross-correlations of these two fields, however, are quite different for most GCMs in mid-latitudes. Model correlation estimates agree well with those for observational proxy data for Australia, at high northern latitudes across North America, Europe and Asia, as well as across the Sahara, India, and Southeast Asia, but elsewhere, little consistent agreement exists.

  12. Numerical modelling of geothermal and reflux circulation in Enewetak Atoll: Implications for dolomitization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, G.; Whitaker, F.; Smart, P.; Sanford, W.

    2000-01-01

    Two types of regional-scale seawater circulation have been proposed to explain the formation of Enewetak Atoll dolomites: geothermal and reflux circulation. We have used a finite element groundwater flow model to examine the pattern, magnitude and dynamic interaction of these two different circulation mechanisms in Enewetak Atoll. Geothermal circulation is concentrated around the atoll-margin whereas refluxing mesosaline brines flow from the atoll interior towards the margin to restrict and eventually shut off geothermal circulation. Refluxing brines of 36-80??? can account for the salinity signature recorded in dolomite fluid inclusions. Distributions of fluid flux and Mg mass-balance calculations suggest that both geothermal and reflux circulation mechanisms could account for the observed distribution of dolomite in Enewetak Atoll. Furthermore, the atoll interior may be extensively dolomitized as observed in other atolls. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.Two types of regional-scale seawater circulation have been proposed to explain the formation of Enewetak Atoll dolomites: geothermal and reflux circulation. We have used a finite element groundwater flow model to examine the pattern, magnitude and dynamic interaction of these two different circulation mechanisms in Enewetak Atoll. Geothermal circulation is concentrated around the atoll-margin whereas refluxing mesosaline brines flow from the atoll interior towards the margin to restrict and eventually shut off geothermal circulation. Refluxing brines of 36-80 per mil can account for the salinity signature recorded in dolomite fluid inclusions. Distributions of fluid flux and Mg mass-balance calculations suggest that both geothermal and reflux circulation mechanisms could account for the observed distribution of dolomite in Enewetak Atoll. Furthermore, the atoll interior may be extensively dolomitized as observed in other atolls.

  13. Numerical Models of Human Circulatory System under Altered Gravity: Brain Circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Chang Sung; Kiris, Cetin; Kwak, Dochan; David, Tim

    2003-01-01

    A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach is presented to model the blood flow through the human circulatory system under altered gravity conditions. Models required for CFD simulation relevant to major hemodynamic issues are introduced such as non-Newtonian flow models governed by red blood cells, a model for arterial wall motion due to fluid-wall interactions, a vascular bed model for outflow boundary conditions, and a model for auto-regulation mechanism. The three-dimensional unsteady incompressible Navier-Stokes equations coupled with these models are solved iteratively using the pseudocompressibility method and dual time stepping. Moving wall boundary conditions from the first-order fluid-wall interaction model are used to study the influence of arterial wall distensibility on flow patterns and wall shear stresses during the heart pulse. A vascular bed modeling utilizing the analogy with electric circuits is coupled with an auto-regulation algorithm for multiple outflow boundaries. For the treatment of complex geometry, a chimera overset grid technique is adopted to obtain connectivity between arterial branches. For code validation, computed results are compared with experimental data for steady and unsteady non-Newtonian flows. Good agreement is obtained for both cases. In sin-type Gravity Benchmark Problems, gravity source terms are added to the Navier-Stokes equations to study the effect of gravitational variation on the human circulatory system. This computational approach is then applied to localized blood flows through a realistic carotid bifurcation and two Circle of Willis models, one using an idealized geometry and the other model using an anatomical data set. A three- dimensional anatomical Circle of Willis configuration is reconstructed from human-specific magnetic resonance images using an image segmentation method. The blood flow through these Circle of Willis models is simulated to provide means for studying gravitational effects on the brain

  14. NUMERICAL MODELLING OF THE QUASI-GLOBAL OCEAN CIRCULATION BASED ON POM

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIA Chang-shui; QIAO Fang-li; ZHANG Qing-hua; YUAN Ye-li

    2004-01-01

    A free surface quasi-global ocean circulation model,Princeton Ocean Model(POM),was adopted to simulate the climatological circulation.The horizontal resolution of the model was 1/2°×1/2° with 16 vertical sigma layers.The initial temperature and salinity fields of the model were interpolated from the Levitus data,and the COADS(Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set)monthly mean SST and wind fields were used as the surface forcing.The integral time length is 6a.The main general circulation components such as the equatorial current,the equatorial undercurrent,the south and north equatorial currents,the Antarctic Circumpolar Current(ACC),the Kuroshio and the Gulf Stream were well reconstructed.The volume transports of PN section and ACC agree well with the estimations on field survey.Up to now there is no global or quasi-global circulation model results using POM in literature.Our results demonstrate that POM has sound ability to simulate the coastal circulation as well as the general ocean circulation.And this result can provide open boundary conditions for fine resolution regional ocean circulation models.

  15. The DTU12MDT global mean dynamic topography and ocean circulation model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Per; Andersen, Ole B.

    2013-01-01

    The Gravity and Ocean Circulation Experiment - GOCE satellite mission measure the Earth gravity field with unprecedented accuracy leading to substantial improvements in the modelling of the ocean circulation and transport. In this study of the performance of GOCE, a newer gravity model has been...... to results obtained using pre-GOCE gravity field models. The results of this study show that geostrophic surface currents associated with the mean circulation have been further improved and that currents having speeds down to 5 cm/s have been recovered....

  16. A Mathematical Model for Differential—Velocity Circulating Fluidized Bed Boiler

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LiZhao; XiangdongXu

    1999-01-01

    The scheme of differential-velocity circulating fluidized bed was put forward by Thermal Engineering Department of Tsinghua university in 1992 and got patent simultaneously.An internal bed material circulation in combustor can be established by the discrepancy of entrainment at different air velocity,and separates the combustor into three different velocity regions,which constitutes the differential-velocity inside circulation.Mathematical modeling and simulation may facilitate understanding,Development and operation of this new process.Here cell model method was adopted to set up the model.

  17. Development of a High-Resolution Coastal Circulation Model for the Ocean Observatory in Lunenburg Bay

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Liang; SHENG Jinyu

    2005-01-01

    An advanced ocean observatory has been established in Lunenburg Bay of Nova Scotia, Canada as part of an interdisciplinary research project of marine environmental prediction. The development of a high-resolution coastal circulation model is one of important components of the observatory. The model horizontal resolution is 60 m and the vertical resolution is about 1 m. The coastal circulation model is used to simulate the semi-diurnal tidal circulation and associated nonlinear dynamics with the M2 forcing specified at the model open boundaries. The model is also used to simulate the storm-induced circulation in the bay during Hurricane Juan in September 2003, with the model forcing to be the combination of tides and remotely generated waves specified at the model open boundaries and wind stress applied at the sea surface. The model results demonstrate strong interactions between the local wind stress, tidal forcing, and remotely generated waves during this period. Comparison of model results with the surface elevation and current observations demonstrates that the coastal circulation model has reasonable skills in simulating the tidal and storm-induced circulation in the bay.

  18. Multi-year predictability in a coupled general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Power, Scott; Colman, Rob [Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

    2006-02-01

    Multi-year to decadal variability in a 100-year integration of a BMRC coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM) is examined. The fractional contribution made by the decadal component generally increases with depth and latitude away from surface waters in the equatorial Indo-Pacific Ocean. The relative importance of decadal variability is enhanced in off-equatorial ''wings'' in the subtropical eastern Pacific. The model and observations exhibit ''ENSO-like'' decadal patterns. Analytic results are derived, which show that the patterns can, in theory, occur in the absence of any predictability beyond ENSO time-scales. In practice, however, modification to this stochastic view is needed to account for robust differences between ENSO-like decadal patterns and their interannual counterparts. An analysis of variability in the CGCM, a wind-forced shallow water model, and a simple mixed layer model together with existing and new theoretical results are used to improve upon this stochastic paradigm and to provide a new theory for the origin of decadal ENSO-like patterns like the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In this theory, ENSO-driven wind-stress variability forces internal equatorially-trapped Kelvin waves that propagate towards the eastern boundary. Kelvin waves can excite reflected internal westward propagating equatorially-trapped Rossby waves (RWs) and coastally-trapped waves (CTWs). CTWs have no impact on the off-equatorial sub-surface ocean outside the coastal wave guide, whereas the RWs do. If the frequency of the incident wave is too high, then only CTWs are excited. At lower frequencies, both CTWs and RWs can be excited. The lower the frequency, the greater the fraction of energy transmitted to RWs. This lowers the characteristic frequency of variability off the equator relative to its equatorial counterpart. Both the eastern boundary interactions and the accumulation of

  19. SPR Hydrostatic Column Model Verification and Validation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bettin, Giorgia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lord, David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Rudeen, David Keith [Gram, Inc. Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-10-01

    A Hydrostatic Column Model (HCM) was developed to help differentiate between normal "tight" well behavior and small-leak behavior under nitrogen for testing the pressure integrity of crude oil storage wells at the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This effort was motivated by steady, yet distinct, pressure behavior of a series of Big Hill caverns that have been placed under nitrogen for extended period of time. This report describes the HCM model, its functional requirements, the model structure and the verification and validation process. Different modes of operation are also described, which illustrate how the software can be used to model extended nitrogen monitoring and Mechanical Integrity Tests by predicting wellhead pressures along with nitrogen interface movements. Model verification has shown that the program runs correctly and it is implemented as intended. The cavern BH101 long term nitrogen test was used to validate the model which showed very good agreement with measured data. This supports the claim that the model is, in fact, capturing the relevant physical phenomena and can be used to make accurate predictions of both wellhead pressure and interface movements.

  20. THOR: A New and Flexible Global Circulation Model to Explore Planetary Atmospheres

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendonça, João M.; Grimm, Simon L.; Grosheintz, Luc; Heng, Kevin

    2016-10-01

    We have designed and developed, from scratch, a global circulation model (GCM) named THOR that solves the three-dimensional nonhydrostatic Euler equations. Our general approach lifts the commonly used assumptions of a shallow atmosphere and hydrostatic equilibrium. We solve the “pole problem” (where converging meridians on a sphere lead to increasingly smaller time steps near the poles) by implementing an icosahedral grid. Irregularities in the grid, which lead to grid imprinting, are smoothed using the “spring dynamics” technique. We validate our implementation of spring dynamics by examining calculations of the divergence and gradient of test functions. To prevent the computational time step from being bottlenecked by having to resolve sound waves, we implement a split-explicit method together with a horizontally explicit and vertically implicit integration. We validate our GCM by reproducing the Earth and hot-Jupiter-like benchmark tests. THOR was designed to run on graphics processing units (GPUs), which allows for physics modules (radiative transfer, clouds, chemistry) to be added in the future, and is part of the open-source Exoclimes Simulation Platform (www.exoclime.org).

  1. A stabilized proper orthogonal decomposition reduced-order model for large scale quasigeostrophic ocean circulation

    CERN Document Server

    San, Omer

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, a stabilized proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) reduced-order model (ROM) is presented for the barotropic vorticity equation. We apply the POD-ROM model to mid-latitude simplified oceanic basins, which are standard prototypes of more realistic large-scale ocean dynamics. A mode dependent eddy viscosity closure scheme is used to model the effects of the discarded POD modes. A sensitivity analysis with respect to the free eddy viscosity stabilization parameter is performed for various POD-ROMs with different numbers of POD modes. The POD-ROM results are validated against the Munk layer resolving direct numerical simulations using a fully conservative fourth-order Arakawa scheme. A comparison with the standard Galerkin POD-ROM without any stabilization is also included in our investigation. Significant improvements in the accuracy over the standard Galerkin model are shown for a four-gyre ocean circulation problem. This first step in the numerical assessment of the POD-ROM shows that it could r...

  2. A Three-Box Model of Thermohaline Circulation under the Energy Constraint

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHEN Yang; GUAN Yu-Ping; LIANG Chu-Jin; CHEN Da-Ke

    2011-01-01

    The driving mechanism of thermohaline circulation is still a controversial topic in physical oceanography. Classic theory is based on Stommel's two-box model under buoyancy constraint. Recently, Guan and Huang proposed a new viewpoint in the framework of energy constraint with a two-box model. We extend it to a three-box model,including the effect of wind-driven circulation. Using this simple model, we further study how ocean mixing impacts on thermohaline circulation under the energy constraint.%@@ The driving mechanism of thermohaline circulation is still a controversial topic in physical oceanography.Classic theory is based on Stommel's two-box model under buoyancy constraint.Recently,Guan and Huang proposed a new viewpoint in the framework of energy constraint with a two-box model.We extend it to a three-box model,including the effect of wind-driven circulation.Using this simple model,we further study how ocean mixing impacts on thermohaline circulation under the energy constraint.

  3. Model validation in soft systems practice

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Checkland, P. [Univ. of Lancaster (United Kingdom)

    1995-03-01

    The concept of `a model` usually evokes the connotation `model of part of the real world`. That is an almost automatic response. It makes sense especially in relation to the way the concept has been developed and used in natural science. Classical operational research (OR), with its scientific aspirations, and systems engineering, use the concept in the same way and in addition use models as surrogates for the real world, on which experimentation is cheap. In these fields the key feature of a model is representativeness. In soft systems methodology (SSM) models are not of part of the world; they are only relevant to debate about the real world and are used in a cyclic learning process. The paper shows how the different concepts of validation in classical OR and SSM lead to a way of sharply defining the nature of `soft OR`. 21 refs.

  4. Meridional overturning circulation: stability and ocean feedbacks in a box model

    CERN Document Server

    Cimatoribus, Andrea A; Dijkstra, Henk A

    2012-01-01

    A box model of the inter-hemispheric Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is developed, including a variable pycnocline depth for the tropical and subtropical regions. The circulation is forced by winds over a periodic channel in the south and by freshwater forcing at the surface. The model is aimed at investigating the ocean feedbacks related to perturbations in freshwater forcing from the atmosphere, and to changes in freshwater transport in the ocean. These feedbacks are closely connected with the stability properties of the meridional overturning circulation, in particular in response to freshwater perturbations.

  5. Sensitivity experiments with an adaptation model of circulation of western tropical Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Bahulayan, N.; Shaji, C.; Rao, A.D.; Dube, S.K.

    One 18-level adaptation model of circulation with a flat bottom at 900 m depth has been used to study the sensitivity of the solution to different magnitudes of eddy viscosity and diffusivity coefficients. Three numerical experiments conducted...

  6. Seasonal climate hindcasts with Eta model nested in CPTEC coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilotto, Isabel L.; Chou, Sin Chan; Nobre, Paulo

    2012-12-01

    This work evaluates the added value of the downscaling technique employed with the Eta model nested in the CPTEC atmospheric general circulation model and in the CPTEC coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM). The focus is on the austral summer season, December-January-February, with three members each year. Precipitation, latent heat flux, and shortwave radiation flux at the surface hindcast by the models are compared with observational data and model analyses. The global models generally overestimate the precipitation over South America and tropical Atlantic. The CGCM and the nested Eta (Eta + C) both produce a split in the ITCZ precipitation band. The Eta + C produces better precipitation pattern for the studied season. The Eta model reduces the excessive latent heat flux generated by these global models, in particular the Eta + C. Comparison against PIRATA buoys data shows that the Eta + C results in the smallest precipitation and shortwave radiation forecast errors. The Eta + C comparatively best results are though as a consequence of both: the regional model resolution/physics and smaller errors on the lateral boundary conditions provided by the CGCM.

  7. Information systems validation using formal models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azadeh Sarram

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available During the past few years, there has been growing interest to use unified modeling language (UML to consider the functional requirements. However, lacking a tool to detect the accuracy and the logic of diagrams in this language makes a formal model indispensable. In this study, conversion of primary UML model of a system to a colored Petri net has been accomplished in order to examine the precision of the model. For this purpose, first the definition of priority and implementation tags for UML activity diagram are provided; then it is turned into colored Petri net. Second, the proposed model provides translated tags in terms of net transitions and some monitoring are used to control the system characteristics. Finally, an executable model of UML activity diagram is provided so that the designer could simulate the model by using the simulation results to detect and to refine the problems of the model. In addition, by checking the results, we find out the proposed method enhances authenticity and accuracy of early models and the ratio of system validation increases compared with previous methods.

  8. Rodent heart failure models do not reflect the human circulating microRNA signature in heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vegter, Eline L; Ovchinnikova, Ekaterina S; Silljé, Herman H W; Meems, Laura M G; van der Pol, Atze; van der Velde, A Rogier; Berezikov, Eugene; Voors, Adriaan A; de Boer, Rudolf A; van der Meer, Peter

    2017-01-01

    We recently identified a set of plasma microRNAs (miRNAs) that are downregulated in patients with heart failure in comparison with control subjects. To better understand their meaning and function, we sought to validate these circulating miRNAs in 3 different well-established rat and mouse heart failure models, and correlated the miRNAs to parameters of cardiac function. The previously identified let-7i-5p, miR-16-5p, miR-18a-5p, miR-26b-5p, miR-27a-3p, miR-30e-5p, miR-199a-3p, miR-223-3p, miR-423-3p, miR-423-5p and miR-652-3p were measured by means of quantitative real time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) in plasma samples of 8 homozygous TGR(mREN2)27 (Ren2) transgenic rats and 8 (control) Sprague-Dawley rats, 6 mice with angiotensin II-induced heart failure (AngII) and 6 control mice, and 8 mice with ischemic heart failure and 6 controls. Circulating miRNA levels were compared between the heart failure animals and healthy controls. Ren2 rats, AngII mice and mice with ischemic heart failure showed clear signs of heart failure, exemplified by increased left ventricular and lung weights, elevated end-diastolic left ventricular pressures, increased expression of cardiac stress markers and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction. All miRNAs were detectable in plasma from rats and mice. No significant differences were observed between the circulating miRNAs in heart failure animals when compared to the healthy controls (all P>0.05) and no robust associations with cardiac function could be found. The previous observation that miRNAs circulate in lower levels in human patients with heart failure could not be validated in well-established rat and mouse heart failure models. These results question the translation of data on human circulating miRNA levels to experimental models, and vice versa the validity of experimental miRNA data for human heart failure.

  9. Bayesian structural equation modeling method for hierarchical model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jiang Xiaomo [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Vanderbilt University, Box 1831-B, Nashville, TN 37235 (United States)], E-mail: xiaomo.jiang@vanderbilt.edu; Mahadevan, Sankaran [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Vanderbilt University, Box 1831-B, Nashville, TN 37235 (United States)], E-mail: sankaran.mahadevan@vanderbilt.edu

    2009-04-15

    A building block approach to model validation may proceed through various levels, such as material to component to subsystem to system, comparing model predictions with experimental observations at each level. Usually, experimental data becomes scarce as one proceeds from lower to higher levels. This paper presents a structural equation modeling approach to make use of the lower-level data for higher-level model validation under uncertainty, integrating several components: lower-level data, higher-level data, computational model, and latent variables. The method proposed in this paper uses latent variables to model two sets of relationships, namely, the computational model to system-level data, and lower-level data to system-level data. A Bayesian network with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is applied to represent the two relationships and to estimate the influencing factors between them. Bayesian hypothesis testing is employed to quantify the confidence in the predictive model at the system level, and the role of lower-level data in the model validation assessment at the system level. The proposed methodology is implemented for hierarchical assessment of three validation problems, using discrete observations and time-series data.

  10. Aluminium in an ocean general circulation model compared with the West Atlantic Geotraces cruises

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Hulten, M. M. P.; Sterl, A.; Tagliabue, A.; Dutay, J. -C.; Gehlen, M.; de Baar, H. J. W.; Middag, R.

    2013-01-01

    A model of aluminium has been developed and implemented in an Ocean General Circulation Model (NEMO-PISCES). In the model, aluminium enters the ocean by means of dust deposition. The internal oceanic processes are described by advection, mixing and reversible scavenging. The model has been evaluated

  11. Aluminium in an ocean general circulation model compared with the West Atlantic Geotraces cruises

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Hulten, M. M. P.; Sterl, A.; Tagliabue, A.; Dutay, J. -C.; Gehlen, M.; de Baar, H. J. W.; Middag, R.

    2013-01-01

    A model of aluminium has been developed and implemented in an Ocean General Circulation Model (NEMO-PISCES). In the model, aluminium enters the ocean by means of dust deposition. The internal oceanic processes are described by advection, mixing and reversible scavenging. The model has been evaluated

  12. Exploring the Impact of Students' Learning Approach on Collaborative Group Modeling of Blood Circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Shinyoung; Kang, Eunhee; Kim, Heui-Baik

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed to explore the effect on group dynamics of statements associated with deep learning approaches (DLA) and their contribution to cognitive collaboration and model development during group modeling of blood circulation. A group was selected for an in-depth analysis of collaborative group modeling. This group constructed a model in a…

  13. Modeling the hydrothermal circulation and the hydrogen production at the Rainbow site with Cast3M

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, F.; Mügler, C.; Charlou, J.; Jean-baptiste, P.

    2012-12-01

    On the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, the Rainbow venting site is described as an ultramafic-hosted active hydrothermal site and releases high fluxes of methane and hydrogen [1, 2]. This behavior has first been interpreted as the result of serpentinization processes. But geochemical reactions involving olivine and plagioclase assemblages, and leading to chlorite, tremolite, talc and magnetite assemblages, could contribute to the observed characteristics of the exiting fluid [2]. The predominance of one of these geochemical reactions or their coexistence strongly depend on the hydrothermal fluid circulation. We developed and validated a 2D/3D numerical model using a Finite Volume method to simulate heat driven fluid flows in the framework of the Cast3M code [3, 4]. We also developed a numerical model for hydrogen production and transport that is based on experimental studies of the serpentinization processes [5-6]. This geochemical model takes into account the exothermic and water-consuming behavior of the serpentinization reaction and it can be coupled to our thermo-hydrogeological model. Our simulations provide temperatures, mass fluxes and venting surface areas very close to those estimated in-situ [7]. We showed that a single-path model [8] was necessary to simulate high values such as the in-situ measured temperatures and estimated water mass fluxes of the Rainbow site [7]. This single-path model will be used to model the production and transport of hydrogen at the Rainbow hydrothermal site. References [1]Charlou et al. (2010) AGU Monograph series. [2]Seyfried et al. (2011) Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 75, 1574-1593. [3]http://www-cast3m.cea.fr. [4]Martin & Fyfe (1970) Chem. Geol. 6, 185-202. [5] Marcaillou et al. (2011) Earth and Planet. Sci. Lett. 303, 281-290. [6]Malvoisin et al. (2012) JGR, 117, B01104. [7]Perez et al. (2012) submited to Computational Geosciences. [8]Lowell & Germanovich (2004) AGU, Washington DC, USA.

  14. Model validation of channel zapping quality

    OpenAIRE

    Kooij, R.; Nicolai, F.; Ahmed, K.; Brunnström, K.

    2009-01-01

    In an earlier paper we showed, that perceived quality of channel zapping is related to the perceived quality of download time of web browsing, as suggested by ITU-T Rec.G.1030. We showed this by performing subjective tests resulting in an excellent fit with a 0.99 correlation. This was what we call a lean forward experiment and gave the rule of thumb result that the zapping time must be less than 0.43 sec to be good ( > 3.5 on the MOS scale). To validate the model we have done new subjective ...

  15. Interpretation of cloud-climate feedback as produced by 14 atmospheric general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cess, R. D.; Potter, G. L.; Ghan, S. J.; Blanchet, J. P.; Boer, G. J.

    1989-01-01

    Understanding the cause of differences among general circulation model projections of carbon dioxide-induced climatic change is a necessary step toward improving the models. An intercomparison of 14 atmospheric general circulation models, for which sea surface temperature perturbations were used as a surrogate climate change, showed that there was a roughly threefold variation in global climate sensitivity. Most of this variation is attributable to differences in the models' depictions of cloud-climate feedback, a result that emphasizes the need for improvements in the treatment of clouds in these models if they are ultimately to be used as climatic predictors.

  16. ESTIMATING THE DEEP SOLAR MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION USING MAGNETIC OBSERVATIONS AND A DYNAMO MODEL: A VARIATIONAL APPROACH

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hung, Ching Pui; Jouve, Laurène; Brun, Allan Sacha [Laboratoire AIM Paris-Saclay, CEA/IRFU Université Paris-Diderot CNRS/INSU, F-91191 Gif-Sur-Yvette (France); Fournier, Alexandre [Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Université Paris Diderot UMR 7154 CNRS, F-75005 Paris (France); Talagrand, Olivier [Laboratoire de météorologie dynamique, UMR 8539, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris Cedex 05 (France)

    2015-12-01

    We show how magnetic observations of the Sun can be used in conjunction with an axisymmetric flux-transport solar dynamo model in order to estimate the large-scale meridional circulation throughout the convection zone. Our innovative approach rests on variational data assimilation, whereby the distance between predictions and observations (measured by an objective function) is iteratively minimized by means of an optimization algorithm seeking the meridional flow that best accounts for the data. The minimization is performed using a quasi-Newton technique, which requires knowledge of the sensitivity of the objective function to the meridional flow. That sensitivity is efficiently computed via the integration of the adjoint flux-transport dynamo model. Closed-loop (also known as twin) experiments using synthetic data demonstrate the validity and accuracy of this technique for a variety of meridional flow configurations, ranging from unicellular and equatorially symmetric to multicellular and equatorially asymmetric. In this well-controlled synthetic context, we perform a systematic study of the behavior of our variational approach under different observational configurations by varying their spatial density, temporal density, and noise level, as well as the width of the assimilation window. We find that the method is remarkably robust, leading in most cases to a recovery of the true meridional flow to within better than 1%. These encouraging results are a first step toward using this technique to (i) better constrain the physical processes occurring inside the Sun and (ii) better predict solar activity on decadal timescales.

  17. Approximate deconvolution large eddy simulation of a barotropic ocean circulation model

    CERN Document Server

    San, Omer; Wang, Zhu; Iliescu, Traian

    2011-01-01

    This paper puts forth a new large eddy simulation closure modeling strategy for two-dimensional turbulent geophysical flows. This closure modeling approach utilizes approximate deconvolution, which is based solely on mathematical approximations and does not employ phenomenological arguments, such as the concept of an energy cascade. The new approximate deconvolution model is tested in the numerical simulation of the wind-driven circulation in a shallow ocean basin, a standard prototype of more realistic ocean dynamics. The model employs the barotropic vorticity equation driven by a symmetric double-gyre wind forcing, which yields a four-gyre circulation in the time mean. The approximate deconvolution model yields the correct four-gyre circulation structure predicted by a direct numerical simulation, on a much coarser mesh but at a fraction of the computational cost. This first step in the numerical assessment of the new model shows that approximate deconvolution could represent a viable alternative to standar...

  18. Validity of information security policy models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua Onome Imoniana

    Full Text Available Validity is concerned with establishing evidence for the use of a method to be used with a particular set of population. Thus, when we address the issue of application of security policy models, we are concerned with the implementation of a certain policy, taking into consideration the standards required, through attribution of scores to every item in the research instrument. En today's globalized economic scenarios, the implementation of information security policy, in an information technology environment, is a condition sine qua non for the strategic management process of any organization. Regarding this topic, various studies present evidences that, the responsibility for maintaining a policy rests primarily with the Chief Security Officer. The Chief Security Officer, in doing so, strives to enhance the updating of technologies, in order to meet all-inclusive business continuity planning policies. Therefore, for such policy to be effective, it has to be entirely embraced by the Chief Executive Officer. This study was developed with the purpose of validating specific theoretical models, whose designs were based on literature review, by sampling 10 of the Automobile Industries located in the ABC region of Metropolitan São Paulo City. This sampling was based on the representativeness of such industries, particularly with regards to each one's implementation of information technology in the region. The current study concludes, presenting evidence of the discriminating validity of four key dimensions of the security policy, being such: the Physical Security, the Logical Access Security, the Administrative Security, and the Legal & Environmental Security. On analyzing the Alpha of Crombach structure of these security items, results not only attest that the capacity of those industries to implement security policies is indisputable, but also, the items involved, homogeneously correlate to each other.

  19. A global mean ocean circulation estimation using goce gravity models - the DTU12MDT mean dynamic topography model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Per; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2012-01-01

    The Gravity and Ocean Circulation Experiment - GOCE satellite mission measure the Earth gravity field with unprecedented accuracy leading to substantial improvements in the modelling of the ocean circulation and transport. In this study of the performance of GOCE, a newer gravity model have been...... have been improved significantly compared to results obtained using pre-GOCE gravity field models. The results of this study show that geostrophic surface currents associated with the mean circulation have been further improved and that currents having speeds down to 5 cm/s have been recovered....

  20. The response of Mediterranean thermohaline circulation to climate change: a minimal model

    OpenAIRE

    Meijer, P.Th.; H. A. Dijkstra

    2009-01-01

    Physics-based understanding of the effects of paleoclimate and paleogeography on the thermohaline circulation of the Mediterranean Sea requires an ocean model capable of long integrations and involving a minimum of assumptions about the atmospheric forcing. Here we examine the sensitivity of the deep circulation in the eastern Mediterranean basin to changes in atmospheric forcing, considered a key factor in the deposition of organic-rich sediments (sapropels). To this extent we explore the se...

  1. Performance of a reconfigured atmospheric general circulation model at low resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Xinyu; Zhou, Tianjun; Wang, Shaowu; Wang, Bin; Wan, Hui; Li, Jian

    2007-07-01

    Paleoclimate simulations usually require model runs over a very long time. The fast integration version of a state-of-the-art general circulation model (GCM), which shares the same physical and dynamical processes but with reduced horizontal resolution and increased time step, is usually developed. In this study, we configure a fast version of an atmospheric GCM (AGCM), the Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP/LASG (Institute of Atmospheric Physics/State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics), at low resolution (GAMIL-L, hereafter), and compare the simulation results with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and other data to examine its performance. GAMIL-L, which is derived from the original GAMIL, is a finite difference AGCM with 72×40 grids in longitude and latitude and 26 vertical levels. To validate the simulated climatology and variability, two runs were achieved. One was a 60-year control run with fixed climatological monthly sea surface temperature (SST) forcing, and the other was a 50-yr (1950 2000) integration with observational time-varying monthly SST forcing. Comparisons between these two cases and the reanalysis, including intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability are also presented. In addition, the differences between GAMIL-L and the original version of GAMIL are also investigated. The results show that GAMIL-L can capture most of the large-scale dynamical features of the atmosphere, especially in the tropics and mid latitudes, although a few deficiencies exist, such as the underestimated Hadley cell and thereby the weak strength of the Asia summer monsoon. However, the simulated mean states over high latitudes, especially over the polar regions, are not acceptable. Apart from dynamics, the thermodynamic features mainly depend upon the physical parameterization schemes. Since the physical package of GAMIL-L is exactly the same as the original high-resolution version of GAMIL, in which the NCAR Community

  2. Performance of a Reconfigured Atmospheric General Circulation Model at Low Resolution

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WEN Xinyu; ZHOU Tianjun; WANG Shaowu; WANG Bin; WAN Hui; LI Jian

    2007-01-01

    Paleoclimate simulations usually require model runs over a very long time. The fast integration version of a state-of-the-art general circulation model (GCM), which shares the same physical and dynamical processes but with reduced horizontal resolution and increased time step, is usually developed. In this study, we configure a fast version of an atmospheric GCM (AGCM), the Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP/LASG(Institute of Atmospheric Physics/State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics), at low resolution (GAMIL-L, hereafter), and compare the simulation results with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and other data to examine its performance. GAMIL-L, which is derived from the original GAMIL, is a finite difference AGCM with 72×40 grids in longitude and latitude and 26 vertical levels. To validate the simulated climatology and variability, two runs were achieved. One was a 60-year control run with fixed climatological monthly sea surface temperature (SST) forcing, and the other was a 50-yr (1950-2000) integration with observational time-varying monthly SST forcing. Comparisons between these two cases and the reanalysis, including intra- seasonal and inter-annual variability are also presented. In addition, the differences between GAMIL-L and the original version of GAMIL are also investigated.The results show that GAMIL-L can capture most of the large-scale dynamical features of the atmosphere,especially in the tropics and mid latitudes, although a few deficiencies exist, such as the underestimated Hadley cell and thereby the weak strength of the Asia summer monsoon. However, the simulated mean states over high latitudes, especially over the polar regions, are not acceptable. Apart from dynamics, the thermodynamic features mainly depend upon the physical parameterization schemes. Since the physical package of GAMIL-L is exactly the same as the original high-resolution version of GAMIL, in which the NCAR Community

  3. Validation of the filament winding process model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calius, Emilo P.; Springer, George S.; Wilson, Brian A.; Hanson, R. Scott

    1987-01-01

    Tests were performed toward validating the WIND model developed previously for simulating the filament winding of composite cylinders. In these tests two 24 in. long, 8 in. diam and 0.285 in. thick cylinders, made of IM-6G fibers and HBRF-55 resin, were wound at + or - 45 deg angle on steel mandrels. The temperatures on the inner and outer surfaces and inside the composite cylinders were recorded during oven cure. The temperatures inside the cylinders were also calculated by the WIND model. The measured and calculated temperatures were then compared. In addition, the degree of cure and resin viscosity distributions inside the cylinders were calculated for the conditions which existed in the tests.

  4. Validation of advanced NSSS simulator model for loss-of-coolant accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kao, S.P.; Chang, S.K.; Huang, H.C. [Nuclear Training Branch, Northeast Utilities, Waterford, CT (United States)

    1995-09-01

    The replacement of the NSSS (Nuclear Steam Supply System) model on the Millstone 2 full-scope simulator has significantly increased its fidelity to simulate adverse conditions in the RCS. The new simulator NSSS model is a real-time derivative of the Nuclear Plant Analyzer by ABB. The thermal-hydraulic model is a five-equation, non-homogeneous model for water, steam, and non-condensible gases. The neutronic model is a three-dimensional nodal diffusion model. In order to certify the new NSSS model for operator training, an extensive validation effort has been performed by benchmarking the model performance against RELAP5/MOD2. This paper presents the validation results for the cases of small-and large-break loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCA). Detailed comparisons in the phenomena of reflux-condensation, phase separation, and two-phase natural circulation are discussed.

  5. Assessment model validity document FARF31

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elert, Mark; Gylling Bjoern; Lindgren, Maria [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2004-08-01

    The prime goal of model validation is to build confidence in the model concept and that the model is fit for its intended purpose. In other words: Does the model predict transport in fractured rock adequately to be used in repository performance assessments. Are the results reasonable for the type of modelling tasks the model is designed for. Commonly, in performance assessments a large number of realisations of flow and transport is made to cover the associated uncertainties. Thus, the flow and transport including radioactive chain decay are preferably calculated in the same model framework. A rather sophisticated concept is necessary to be able to model flow and radionuclide transport in the near field and far field of a deep repository, also including radioactive chain decay. In order to avoid excessively long computational times there is a need for well-based simplifications. For this reason, the far field code FARF31 is made relatively simple, and calculates transport by using averaged entities to represent the most important processes. FARF31 has been shown to be suitable for the performance assessments within the SKB studies, e.g. SR 97. Among the advantages are that it is a fast, simple and robust code, which enables handling of many realisations with wide spread in parameters in combination with chain decay of radionuclides. Being a component in the model chain PROPER, it is easy to assign statistical distributions to the input parameters. Due to the formulation of the advection-dispersion equation in FARF31 it is possible to perform the groundwater flow calculations separately.The basis for the modelling is a stream tube, i.e. a volume of rock including fractures with flowing water, with the walls of the imaginary stream tube defined by streamlines. The transport within the stream tube is described using a dual porosity continuum approach, where it is assumed that rock can be divided into two distinct domains with different types of porosity

  6. [Catalonia's primary healthcare accreditation model: a valid model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davins, Josep; Gens, Montserrat; Pareja, Clara; Guzmán, Ramón; Marquet, Roser; Vallès, Roser

    2014-07-01

    There are few experiences of accreditation models validated by primary care teams (EAP). The aim of this study was to detail the process of design, development, and subsequent validation of the consensus EAP accreditation model of Catalonia. An Operating Committee of the Health Department of Catalonia revised models proposed by the European Foundation for Quality Management, the Joint Commission International and the Institut Català de la Salut and proposed 628 essential standards to the technical group (25 experts in primary care and quality of care), to establish consensus standards. The consensus document was piloted in 30 EAP for the purpose of validating the contents, testing standards and identifying evidence. Finally, we did a survey to assess acceptance and validation of the document. The Technical Group agreed on a total of 414 essential standards. The pilot selected a total of 379. Mean compliance with the standards of the final document in the 30 EAP was 70.4%. The standards results were the worst fulfilment percentage. The survey target that 83% of the EAP found it useful and 78% found the content of the accreditation manual suitable as a tool to assess the quality of the EAP, and identify opportunities for improvement. On the downside they highlighted its complexity and laboriousness. We have a model that fits the reality of the EAP, and covers all relevant issues for the functioning of an excellent EAP. The model developed in Catalonia is a model for easy understanding.

  7. Aluminium in an ocean general circulation model compared with the West Atlantic Geotraces cruises

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van Hulten, M

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available A model of aluminium has been developed and implemented in an Ocean General Circulation Model (NEMO-PISCES). In the model, aluminium enters the ocean by means of dust deposition. The internal oceanic processes are described by advection, mixing...

  8. Midlatitude Forcing Mechanisms for Glacier Mass Balance Investigated Using General Circulation Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reichert, B.K.; Bengtsson, L.; Oerlemans, J.

    2001-01-01

    A process-oriented modeling approach is applied in order to simulate glacier mass balance for individual glaciers using statistically downscaled general circulation models (GCMs). Glacier-specific seasonal sensitivity characteristics based on a mass balance model of intermediate complexity are used

  9. Comprehensive Mathematical Model for Coal Combustion in a Circulating Fluidized Bed Combustor

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    金晓钟; 吕俊复; 杨海瑞; 刘青; 岳光溪; 冯俊凯

    2001-01-01

    Char combustion is on a special reducing condition in the dense bed of a circulating fluidized bedcombustor. Experimental findings were used to develop a comprehensive mathematical model to simulate thehydrodynamic and combustion processes in a circulating fluidized bed combustor. In the model, gas-solidinteraction was used to account for the mass transfer between the bubble phase and the emulsion phase in thedense bed, which contributes to the reducing atmosphere in the dense bed. A core-annular structure wasassumed in the dilute area rather than a one-dimensional model. The submodels were combined to build thecomprehensive model to analyze the combustion in a circulating fluidized bed combustor and the effect ofoperating parameters on the coal combustion. The model predictions agree well with experimental results.

  10. Wind-Driven Ocean Circulation in Shallow Water Lattice Boltzmann Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHONG Linhao; FENG Shide; GAO Shouting

    2005-01-01

    A lattice Boltzmann (LB) model with overall second-order accuracy is applied to the 1.5-layer shallow water equation for a wind-driven double-gyre ocean circulation. By introducing the second-order integral approximation for the collision operator, the model becomes fully explicit. In this case, any iterative technique is not needed. The Coriolis force and other external forces are included in the model with second-order accuracy, which is consistent with the discretized accuracy of the LB equation. The numerical results show correct physics of the ocean circulation driven by the double-gyre wind stress with different Reynolds numbers and different spatial resolutions. An intrinsic low-frequency variability of the shallow water model is also found. The wind-driven ocean circulation exhibits subannual and interannual oscillations, which are comparable to those of models in which the conventional numerical methods are used.

  11. SDG and qualitative trend based model multiple scale validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Dong; Xu, Xin; Yin, Jianjin; Zhang, Hongyu; Zhang, Beike

    2017-09-01

    Verification, Validation and Accreditation (VV&A) is key technology of simulation and modelling. For the traditional model validation methods, the completeness is weak; it is carried out in one scale; it depends on human experience. The SDG (Signed Directed Graph) and qualitative trend based multiple scale validation is proposed. First the SDG model is built and qualitative trends are added to the model. And then complete testing scenarios are produced by positive inference. The multiple scale validation is carried out by comparing the testing scenarios with outputs of simulation model in different scales. Finally, the effectiveness is proved by carrying out validation for a reactor model.

  12. Demonstration of an advanced circulation fludized bed coal combustor phase 1: Cold model study. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Govind, R. [Cincinnati Univ., OH (United States). Dept. of Chemical Engineering

    1993-03-20

    It was found that there was a strong dependence of the density profile on the secondary air injection location and that there was a pronounced solid separation from the conveying gas, due to the swirl motion. Furthermore, the swirl motion generated strong internal circulation patterns and higher slip velocities than in the case of nonswirl motion as in an ordinary circulating fluidized bed. Radial solids flux profiles were measured at different axial locations. The general radial profile in a swirling circulating fluidized bed indicated an increased downward flow of solids near the bed walls, and strong variations in radial profiles along the axial height. For swirl numbers less than 0.9, which is typical for swirling circulating fluidized beds, there is no significant increase in erosion due to swirl motion inside the bed. Pending further investigation of swirl motion with combustion, at least from our cold model studies, no disadvantages due to the introduction of swirl motion were discovered.

  13. Unit testing, model validation, and biological simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watts, Mark D.; Ghayoomie, S. Vahid; Larson, Stephen D.; Gerkin, Richard C.

    2016-01-01

    The growth of the software industry has gone hand in hand with the development of tools and cultural practices for ensuring the reliability of complex pieces of software. These tools and practices are now acknowledged to be essential to the management of modern software. As computational models and methods have become increasingly common in the biological sciences, it is important to examine how these practices can accelerate biological software development and improve research quality. In this article, we give a focused case study of our experience with the practices of unit testing and test-driven development in OpenWorm, an open-science project aimed at modeling Caenorhabditis elegans. We identify and discuss the challenges of incorporating test-driven development into a heterogeneous, data-driven project, as well as the role of model validation tests, a category of tests unique to software which expresses scientific models. PMID:27635225

  14. A long term model of circulation. [human body

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, R. J.

    1974-01-01

    A quantitative approach to modeling human physiological function, with a view toward ultimate application to long duration space flight experiments, was undertaken. Data was obtained on the effect of weightlessness on certain aspects of human physiological function during 1-3 month periods. Modifications in the Guyton model are reviewed. Design considerations for bilateral interface models are discussed. Construction of a functioning whole body model was studied, as well as the testing of the model versus available data.

  15. Full-Scale Cookoff Model Validation Experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McClelland, M A; Rattanapote, M K; Heimdahl, E R; Erikson, W E; Curran, P O; Atwood, A I

    2003-11-25

    This paper presents the experimental results of the third and final phase of a cookoff model validation effort. In this phase of the work, two generic Heavy Wall Penetrators (HWP) were tested in two heating orientations. Temperature and strain gage data were collected over the entire test period. Predictions for time and temperature of reaction were made prior to release of the live data. Predictions were comparable to the measured values and were highly dependent on the established boundary conditions. Both HWP tests failed at a weld located near the aft closure of the device. More than 90 percent of unreacted explosive was recovered in the end heated experiment and less than 30 percent recovered in the side heated test.

  16. Validation of HEDR models. Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, B.A.; Simpson, J.C.; Eslinger, P.W.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.; Thiede, M.E.; Walters, W.H.

    1994-05-01

    The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project has developed a set of computer models for estimating the possible radiation doses that individuals may have received from past Hanford Site operations. This document describes the validation of these models. In the HEDR Project, the model validation exercise consisted of comparing computational model estimates with limited historical field measurements and experimental measurements that are independent of those used to develop the models. The results of any one test do not mean that a model is valid. Rather, the collection of tests together provide a level of confidence that the HEDR models are valid.

  17. Predictive Model for Particle Residence Time Distributions in Riser Reactors. Part 1: Model Development and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foust, Thomas D.; Ziegler, Jack L.; Pannala, Sreekanth; Ciesielski, Peter; Nimlos, Mark R.; Robichaud, David J.

    2017-01-16

    In this computational study, we model the mixing of biomass pyrolysis vapor with solid catalyst in circulating riser reactors with a focus on the determination of solid catalyst residence time distributions (RTDs). A comprehensive set of 2D and 3D simulations were conducted for a pilot-scale riser using the Eulerian-Eulerian two-fluid modeling framework with and without sub-grid-scale models for the gas-solids interaction. A validation test case was also simulated and compared to experiments, showing agreement in the pressure gradient and RTD mean and spread. For simulation cases, it was found that for accurate RTD prediction, the Johnson and Jackson partial slip solids boundary condition was required for all models and a sub-grid model is useful so that ultra high resolutions grids that are very computationally intensive are not required. We discovered a 2/3 scaling relation for the RTD mean and spread when comparing resolved 2D simulations to validated unresolved 3D sub-grid-scale model simulations.

  18. A MODEL FOR FINE PARTICLE AGGLOMERATION IN CIRCULATING FLUIDIZED BED ABSORBERS

    Science.gov (United States)

    A model for fine particle agglomeration in circulating fluidized bed absorbers (CFBAS) has been developed. It can model the influence of different factors on agglomeration, such as the geometry of CFBAs, superficial gas velocity, initial particle size distribution, and type of ag...

  19. Uncertainities in carbon dioxide radiative forcing in atmospheric general circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cess, R.D.; Zhang, M.H. (State Univ. of New York, Stony Brook, NY (United States)); Potter, G.L.; Gates, W.L.; Taylor, K.E. (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, CA (United States)); Colman, R.A.; Fraser, J.R.; McAvaney, B.J. (Bureau of Meterorology Research Centre, Victoria (Australia)); Dazlich, D.A.; Randall, D.A. (Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)); Del Genio, A.D.; Lacis, A.A. (Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States)); Esch, M.; Roeckner, E. (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)); Galin, V. (Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation)); Hack, J.J.; Kiehl, J.T. (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)); Ingram, W.J. (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Berkshire (United Kingdom)); Le Treut, H.; Lli, Z.X. (Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris (France)); Liang, X.Z.; Wang, W.C. (State Univ. of New York, Albany, NY (United States)); Mahfouf,

    1993-11-19

    Global warming, caused by an increase in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, is the direct result of greenhouse gas-induced radiative forcing. When a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide is considered, this forcing differed substantially among 15 atmospheric general circulation models. Although there are several potential causes, the largest contributor was the carbon dioxide radiation parameterizations of the models.

  20. A global mean dynamic topography and ocean circulation estimation using a preliminary GOCE gravity model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Per; Bingham, R.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2011-01-01

    The Gravity and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) satellite mission measures Earth’s gravity field with an unprecedented accuracy at short spatial scales. In doing so, it promises to significantly advance our ability to determine the ocean’s general circulation. In this study......, an initial gravity model from GOCE, based on just 2 months of data, is combined with the recent DTU10MSS mean sea surface to construct a global mean dynamic topography (MDT) model. The GOCE MDT clearly displays the gross features of the ocean’s steady-state circulation. More significantly, the improved...... gravity model provided by the GOCE mission has enhanced the resolution and sharpened the boundaries of those features compared with earlier satellite only solutions. Calculation of the geostrophic surface currents from the MDT reveals improvements for all of the ocean’s major current systems. In the North...

  1. Numerical modeling of the winter circulation of the Gulf of Trieste (northern Adriatic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris PETELIN

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Numerical simulations of the winter circulation in and around the Gulf of Trieste are presented. The model, based on the architecture of the Princeton Ocean Model, gave reasonable results for circulation in the Gulf during the winter period, when the dominant bora wind is blowing. Three model runs with different initial and surface boundary conditions show that there is an outflow along the shallow northern coastline of the Gulf and over the surface of the major part of the area, and an inflow at depth in the central and southern parts of the Gulf. However, the variability of the temperature and salinity fields when vertical fluxes of heat and salinity are present cause a weak outflow in an area near the southern part of the Gulf, and make the general circulation pattern more complex.

  2. The response of Mediterranean thermohaline circulation to climate change: a minimal model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Th. Meijer

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Physics-based understanding of the effects of paleoclimate and paleogeography on the thermohaline circulation of the Mediterranean Sea requires an ocean model capable of long integrations and involving a minimum of assumptions about the atmospheric forcing. Here we examine the sensitivity of the deep circulation in the eastern Mediterranean basin to changes in atmospheric forcing, considered a key factor in the deposition of organic-rich sediments (sapropels. To this extent we explore the setup of an ocean general circulation model (MOMA with realistic (present-day bathymetry and highly idealized forcing. The model proves able to qualitatively capture some important features of the large-scale overturning circulation, in particular for the eastern basin. The response to (i a reduction in the imposed meridional temperature gradient, or (ii a reduction in net evaporation, proves to be non-linear and, under certain conditions, of transient nature. Consistent with previous model studies, but now based on a minimum of assumptions, we find that a reduction in net evaporation (such as due to an increase in freshwater input may halt the deep overturning circulation. The ability to perform long model integrations allows us to add the insight that, in order to have the conditions favourable for sapropel formation persist, we must also assume that the vertical mixing of water properties was reduced. The "minimal" model here presented opens the way to experiments in which one truly follows the basin circulation into, or out of, the period of sapropel formation and where forcing conditions are continously adjusted to the precession cycle.

  3. The response of Mediterranean thermohaline circulation to climate change: a minimal model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Th. Meijer

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Physics-based understanding of the effects of paleoclimate and paleogeography on the thermohaline circulation of the Mediterranean Sea requires an ocean model capable of long integrations and involving a minimum of assumptions about the atmospheric forcing. Here we examine the sensitivity of the deep circulation in the eastern Mediterranean basin to changes in atmospheric forcing, considered a key factor in the deposition of organic-rich sediments (sapropels. To this extent we explore the setup of an ocean general circulation model (MOMA with realistic (present-day bathymetry and highly idealized forcing. The model proves able to qualitatively capture some important features of the large-scale overturning circulation, in particular for the eastern basin. The response to (i a reduction in the imposed meridional temperature gradient, or (ii a reduction in net evaporation, proves to be non-linear and, under certain conditions, of transient nature. Consistent with previous model studies, but now based on a minimum of assumptions, we find that a reduction in net evaporation (such as due to an increase in freshwater input may halt the deep overturning circulation. The ability to perform long model integrations allows us to add the insight that, in order to have the conditions favourable for sapropel formation persist, we must also assume that the vertical mixing of water properties was reduced. The "minimal" model here presented opens the way to experiments in which one truly follows the basin circulation into, or out of, the period of sapropel formation and where forcing conditions are continuously adjusted to the precession cycle.

  4. The calculation of the circulation in South China Sea by a diagnostic model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Weidong; YANG Yang; DONG Danpeng

    2008-01-01

    A high resolved two - dimensional linear global diagnostic model combining with the dynamical calculation is used to calculate ve- locity field in the South China Sea(SCS). The study of model results shows that eddy diffusion does not change basic structure of circulation in the SCS and does not change the direction of invasive water, but changes the value of transport considerably espe- cially in straits. The velocity field is not changed whether the wind stress is considered or not. This result shows the circulation is largely determined by a density field which well records most of the important contribution of the wind stress effect. Potential vor- ticity is calculated to testify the dynamics of the model results. The result shows that a good conservation of the nonlinear PV. This indicates most effects of the important nonlinear processes are well recorded in density and the nonlinear term is negligible so that the simplified model is reliable. The model results show the water exchanges between the SCS and open ocean or surrounding seas. Cold deep water invades through Luzon Strait and Warm shallow water is pushed out mainly through Karimata Straits. The model results also reveal the structure of the circulation in the SCS basin. In two circulations of upper and middle layers, a cyclon- ic one in the north and an anti-cyclonic one in the south, reflect the climatologic average of the circulation driven by monsoon. In the deep or bottom layer, these two circulations reflect the topography of the basin. Above the middle layer, invasive water enters westward in the north but the way of invasion of Kuroshio is not clear. Below the deep layer, a current goes down south near the east basin , and invasive water enters in the basin from the west Pacific.

  5. Quasi-hydrostatic Primitive Equations for Ocean Global Circulation Models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Carine LUCAS; Madalina PETCU; Antoine ROUSSEAU

    2010-01-01

    Global existence of weak and strong solutions to the quasi-hydrostatic primitive equations is studied in this paper.This model,that derives from the full non-hydrostatic model for geophysical fluid dynamics in the zero-limit of the aspect ratio,is more realistic than the classical hydrostatic model,since the traditional approximation that consists in neglecting a part of the Coriolis force is relaxed.After justifying the derivation of the model,the authors provide a rigorous proof of global existence of weak solutions,and well-posedness for strong solutions in dimension three.

  6. Clinical validation of an ultra high-throughput spiral microfluidics for the detection and enrichment of viable circulating tumor cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bee Luan Khoo

    Full Text Available Circulating tumor cells (CTCs are cancer cells that can be isolated via liquid biopsy from blood and can be phenotypically and genetically characterized to provide critical information for guiding cancer treatment. Current analysis of CTCs is hindered by the throughput, selectivity and specificity of devices or assays used in CTC detection and isolation.Here, we enriched and characterized putative CTCs from blood samples of patients with both advanced stage metastatic breast and lung cancers using a novel multiplexed spiral microfluidic chip. This system detected putative CTCs under high sensitivity (100%, n = 56 (Breast cancer samples: 12-1275 CTCs/ml; Lung cancer samples: 10-1535 CTCs/ml rapidly from clinically relevant blood volumes (7.5 ml under 5 min. Blood samples were completely separated into plasma, CTCs and PBMCs components and each fraction were characterized with immunophenotyping (Pan-cytokeratin/CD45, CD44/CD24, EpCAM, fluorescence in-situ hybridization (FISH (EML4-ALK or targeted somatic mutation analysis. We used an ultra-sensitive mass spectrometry based system to highlight the presence of an EGFR-activating mutation in both isolated CTCs and plasma cell-free DNA (cf-DNA, and demonstrate concordance with the original tumor-biopsy samples.We have clinically validated our multiplexed microfluidic chip for the ultra high-throughput, low-cost and label-free enrichment of CTCs. Retrieved cells were unlabeled and viable, enabling potential propagation and real-time downstream analysis using next generation sequencing (NGS or proteomic analysis.

  7. Statistical validation of normal tissue complication probability models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xu, Cheng-Jian; van der Schaaf, Arjen; van t Veld, Aart; Langendijk, Johannes A.; Schilstra, Cornelis

    2012-01-01

    PURPOSE: To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage

  8. Validating agent based models through virtual worlds.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lakkaraju, Kiran; Whetzel, Jonathan H.; Lee, Jina; Bier, Asmeret Brooke; Cardona-Rivera, Rogelio E.; Bernstein, Jeremy Ray Rhythm

    2014-01-01

    As the US continues its vigilance against distributed, embedded threats, understanding the political and social structure of these groups becomes paramount for predicting and dis- rupting their attacks. Agent-based models (ABMs) serve as a powerful tool to study these groups. While the popularity of social network tools (e.g., Facebook, Twitter) has provided extensive communication data, there is a lack of ne-grained behavioral data with which to inform and validate existing ABMs. Virtual worlds, in particular massively multiplayer online games (MMOG), where large numbers of people interact within a complex environ- ment for long periods of time provide an alternative source of data. These environments provide a rich social environment where players engage in a variety of activities observed between real-world groups: collaborating and/or competing with other groups, conducting battles for scarce resources, and trading in a market economy. Strategies employed by player groups surprisingly re ect those seen in present-day con icts, where players use diplomacy or espionage as their means for accomplishing their goals. In this project, we propose to address the need for ne-grained behavioral data by acquiring and analyzing game data a commercial MMOG, referred to within this report as Game X. The goals of this research were: (1) devising toolsets for analyzing virtual world data to better inform the rules that govern a social ABM and (2) exploring how virtual worlds could serve as a source of data to validate ABMs established for analogous real-world phenomena. During this research, we studied certain patterns of group behavior to compliment social modeling e orts where a signi cant lack of detailed examples of observed phenomena exists. This report outlines our work examining group behaviors that underly what we have termed the Expression-To-Action (E2A) problem: determining the changes in social contact that lead individuals/groups to engage in a particular behavior

  9. Alpha Models for 3D Eulerian mean fluid circulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holm, D.D. [Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM (United States). Center for Nonlinear Studies and Theoretical Division

    1999-12-01

    The study provides the known analytical properties of the alpha models, including an outline of their derivation and the associated assumptions, their simplification for the case of constant dispersion length (alpha) and their conservation properties. Interpretations of nonlinear dynamics of viscous alpha models are also showed and the differences one might expect from the dynamics of the Navier-Stokes equations are indicated.

  10. A Model Study of the Salish Sea Estuarine Circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-01

    Canal (HCN) to Main Basin (MB; Gregg and Pratt 2010) and South Sound to Main Basin (through Ta- coma Narrows; Seim and Gregg 1997), whereas Whidbey Basin...sortium fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University– National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) regional forecast model (Mass

  11. Horizontal circulation and jumps in Hamiltonian wave models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gagarina, E.; Vegt, van der J.; Bokhove, O.

    2013-01-01

    We are interested in the numerical modeling of wave-current interactions around surf zones at beaches. Any model that aims to predict the onset of wave breaking at the breaker line needs to capture both the nonlinearity of the wave and its dispersion. We have therefore formulated the Hamiltonian dyn

  12. Comparing clouds and their seasonal variations in 10 atmospheric general circulation models with satellite measurements

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, M.; Lin, W.; Klein, S.; J. Bacmeister; Bony, S.; Cederwall, R.; Del Genio, A; Hack, J.; Loeb, N.; Lohmann, U.; P. Minnis; Musat, I.; Pincus, R; Stier, P.; Suarez, M.

    2005-01-01

    To assess the current status of climate models in simulating clouds, basic cloud climatologies from ten atmospheric general circulation models are compared with satellite measurements from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) program. An ISCCP simulator is employed in all models to facilitate the comparison. Models simulated a four-fold difference in high-top clouds. There are also, however, large uncertainties ...

  13. On optimization of data assimilation in the HBM -circulation model

    OpenAIRE

    VÀhÀ-Piikkiö, Olga

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop a method for optimizing the data assimilation system of the HIROMB-BOOS -model at the Finnish Meteorological Institute by finding an optimal time interval and an optimal grid for the data assimilation. This is needed to balance the extra time the data assimilation adds to the runtime of the model and the improved accuracy it provides. Data assimilation is the process of combining observations with a numerical model to improve the accuracy of the mod...

  14. A computational model-based validation of Guyton's analysis of cardiac output and venous return curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukkamala, R.; Cohen, R. J.; Mark, R. G.

    2002-01-01

    Guyton developed a popular approach for understanding the factors responsible for cardiac output (CO) regulation in which 1) the heart-lung unit and systemic circulation are independently characterized via CO and venous return (VR) curves, and 2) average CO and right atrial pressure (RAP) of the intact circulation are predicted by graphically intersecting the curves. However, this approach is virtually impossible to verify experimentally. We theoretically evaluated the approach with respect to a nonlinear, computational model of the pulsatile heart and circulation. We developed two sets of open circulation models to generate CO and VR curves, differing by the manner in which average RAP was varied. One set applied constant RAPs, while the other set applied pulsatile RAPs. Accurate prediction of intact, average CO and RAP was achieved only by intersecting the CO and VR curves generated with pulsatile RAPs because of the pulsatility and nonlinearity (e.g., systemic venous collapse) of the intact model. The CO and VR curves generated with pulsatile RAPs were also practically independent. This theoretical study therefore supports the validity of Guyton's graphical analysis.

  15. A computational model-based validation of Guyton's analysis of cardiac output and venous return curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukkamala, R.; Cohen, R. J.; Mark, R. G.

    2002-01-01

    Guyton developed a popular approach for understanding the factors responsible for cardiac output (CO) regulation in which 1) the heart-lung unit and systemic circulation are independently characterized via CO and venous return (VR) curves, and 2) average CO and right atrial pressure (RAP) of the intact circulation are predicted by graphically intersecting the curves. However, this approach is virtually impossible to verify experimentally. We theoretically evaluated the approach with respect to a nonlinear, computational model of the pulsatile heart and circulation. We developed two sets of open circulation models to generate CO and VR curves, differing by the manner in which average RAP was varied. One set applied constant RAPs, while the other set applied pulsatile RAPs. Accurate prediction of intact, average CO and RAP was achieved only by intersecting the CO and VR curves generated with pulsatile RAPs because of the pulsatility and nonlinearity (e.g., systemic venous collapse) of the intact model. The CO and VR curves generated with pulsatile RAPs were also practically independent. This theoretical study therefore supports the validity of Guyton's graphical analysis.

  16. The influence of explicit tidal forcing in a climate ocean circulation model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Yi; LIU Hailong; LAN Jian

    2016-01-01

    The eight main tidal constituents have been implemented in the global ocean general circulation model with approximate 1° horizontal resolution. Compared with the observation data, the patterns of the tidal amplitudes and phases had been simulated fairly well. The responses of mean circulation, temperature and salinity are further investigated in the global sense. When implementing the tidal forcing, wind-driven circulations are reduced, especially those in coastal regions. It is also found that the upper cell transport of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) reduces significantly, while its deep cell transport is slightly enhanced from 9×106 m3/s to 10×106 m3/s. The changes of circulations are all related to the increase of a bottom friction and a vertical viscosity due to the tidal forcing. The temperature and salinity of the model are also significantly affected by the tidal forcing through the enhanced bottom friction, mixing and the changes in mean circulation. The largest changes occur in the coastal regions, where the water is cooled and freshened. In the open ocean, the changes are divided into three layers: cooled and freshened on the surface and below 3 000 m, and warmed and salted in the middle in the open ocean. In the upper two layers, the changes are mainly caused by the enhanced mixing, as warm and salty water sinks and cold and fresh water rises; whereas in the deep layer, the enhancement of the deep overturning circulation accounts for the cold and fresh changes in the deep ocean.

  17. Geochemistry Model Validation Report: Material Degradation and Release Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    H. Stockman

    2001-09-28

    The purpose of this Analysis and Modeling Report (AMR) is to validate the Material Degradation and Release (MDR) model that predicts degradation and release of radionuclides from a degrading waste package (WP) in the potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. This AMR is prepared according to ''Technical Work Plan for: Waste Package Design Description for LA'' (Ref. 17). The intended use of the MDR model is to estimate the long-term geochemical behavior of waste packages (WPs) containing U. S . Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) codisposed with High Level Waste (HLW) glass, commercial SNF, and Immobilized Plutonium Ceramic (Pu-ceramic) codisposed with HLW glass. The model is intended to predict (1) the extent to which criticality control material, such as gadolinium (Gd), will remain in the WP after corrosion of the initial WP, (2) the extent to which fissile Pu and uranium (U) will be carried out of the degraded WP by infiltrating water, and (3) the chemical composition and amounts of minerals and other solids left in the WP. The results of the model are intended for use in criticality calculations. The scope of the model validation report is to (1) describe the MDR model, and (2) compare the modeling results with experimental studies. A test case based on a degrading Pu-ceramic WP is provided to help explain the model. This model does not directly feed the assessment of system performance. The output from this model is used by several other models, such as the configuration generator, criticality, and criticality consequence models, prior to the evaluation of system performance. This document has been prepared according to AP-3.10Q, ''Analyses and Models'' (Ref. 2), and prepared in accordance with the technical work plan (Ref. 17).

  18. Numerical Modeling of Orbit-Spin Coupling Accelerations in a Mars General Circulation Model: Implications for Global Dust Storm Activity

    CERN Document Server

    Mischna, Michael A

    2016-01-01

    We employ the MarsWRF general circulation model (GCM) to test the predictions of a new physical hypothesis: a weak coupling of the orbital and rotational angular momenta of extended bodies is predicted to give rise to cycles of intensification and relaxation of circulatory flows within atmospheres. The dynamical core of the GCM has been modified to include the orbit-spin coupling accelerations due to solar system dynamics for the years 1920-2030. The modified GCM is first subjected to extensive testing and validation. We compare forced and unforced model outcomes for large-scale zonal and meridional flows, and for near-surface wind velocities and surface wind stresses. The predicted cycles of circulatory intensification and relaxation within the modified GCM are observed. Most remarkably, the modified GCM reproduces conditions favorable for the occurrence of perihelion-season global-scale dust storms on Mars in years in which such storms were observed. A strengthening of the meridional overturning (Hadley) ci...

  19. Validation of Biomarker-based risk prediction models

    OpenAIRE

    Taylor, Jeremy M.G.; Ankerst, Donna P.; Andridge, Rebecca R.

    2008-01-01

    The increasing availability and use of predictive models to facilitate informed decision making highlights the need for careful assessment of the validity of these models. In particular, models involving biomarkers require careful validation for two reasons: issues with overfitting when complex models involve a large number of biomarkers, and inter-laboratory variation in assays used to measure biomarkers. In this paper we distinguish between internal and external statistical validation. Inte...

  20. A nested Atlantic-Mediterranean Sea general circulation model for operational forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Oddo

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available A new numerical general circulation ocean model for the Mediterranean Sea has been implemented nested within an Atlantic general circulation model within the framework of the Marine Environment and Security for the European Area project (MERSEA, Desaubies, 2006. A 4-year twin experiment was carried out from January 2004 to December 2007 with two different models to evaluate the impact on the Mediterranean Sea circulation of open lateral boundary conditions in the Atlantic Ocean. One model considers a closed lateral boundary in a large Atlantic box and the other is nested in the same box in a global ocean circulation model. Impact was observed comparing the two simulations with independent observations: ARGO for temperature and salinity profiles and tide gauges and along-track satellite observations for the sea surface height. The improvement in the nested Atlantic-Mediterranean model with respect to the closed one is particularly evident in the salinity characteristics of the Modified Atlantic Water and in the Mediterranean sea level seasonal variability.

  1. One dimensional and multiscale models for blood flow circulation

    OpenAIRE

    Lamponi, Daniele

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this work is to provide mathematically sound and computationally effective tools for the numerical simulation of the interaction between fluid and structures as occurring, for instance, in the simulation of the human cardiovascular system. This problem is global, in the sense that local changes can modify the solution far away. From the point of view of computing and modelling this calls for the use of multiscale methods, where simplified models are used to treat the global problem...

  2. Prediction of cloud droplet number in a general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghan, S.J.; Leung, L.R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1996-04-01

    We have applied the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) bulk cloud microphysics parameterization to the treatment of stratiform clouds in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2). The RAMS predicts mass concentrations of cloud water, cloud ice, rain and snow, and number concnetration of ice. We have introduced the droplet number conservation equation to predict droplet number and it`s dependence on aerosols.

  3. Empirical data validation for model building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazarian, Aram

    2008-03-01

    Optical Proximity Correction (OPC) has become an integral and critical part of process development for advanced technologies with challenging k I requirements. OPC solutions in turn require stable, predictive models to be built that can project the behavior of all structures. These structures must comprehend all geometries that can occur in the layout in order to define the optimal corrections by feature, and thus enable a manufacturing process with acceptable margin. The model is built upon two main component blocks. First, is knowledge of the process conditions which includes the optical parameters (e.g. illumination source, wavelength, lens characteristics, etc) as well as mask definition, resist parameters and process film stack information. Second, is the empirical critical dimension (CD) data collected using this process on specific test features the results of which are used to fit and validate the model and to project resist contours for all allowable feature layouts. The quality of the model therefore is highly dependent on the integrity of the process data collected for this purpose. Since the test pattern suite generally extends to below the resolution limit that the process can support with adequate latitude, the CD measurements collected can often be quite noisy with marginal signal-to-noise ratios. In order for the model to be reliable and a best representation of the process behavior, it is necessary to scrutinize empirical data to ensure that it is not dominated by measurement noise or flyer/outlier points. The primary approach for generating a clean, smooth and dependable empirical data set should be a replicated measurement sampling that can help to statistically reduce measurement noise by averaging. However, it can often be impractical to collect the amount of data needed to ensure a clean data set by this method. An alternate approach is studied in this paper to further smooth the measured data by means of curve fitting to identify remaining

  4. Modeling Residual Circulation and Stratification in Oujiang River Estuary

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIN Wei-bo; WANG Yi-gang; RUAN Xiao-hong; XU Qun

    2012-01-01

    A 3D,time-dependent,baroclinic,hydrodynamic and salinity model was implemented and applied to the Oujiang River estuarine system in the East China Sea.The model was driven by the forcing of tidal elevations along the open boundaries and freshwater inflows from the Oujiang River.The bottom friction coefficient and vertical eddy viscosity were adjusted to complete model calibration and verification in simulations.It is demonstrated that the model is capable of reproducing observed temporal variability in the water surface elevation and longitudinal velocity,presenting skill coefficient higher than 0.82.This model was then used to investigate the influence of freshwater discharge on residual current and salinity intrusion under different freshwater inflow conditions in the Oujiang River estuary.The model results reveal that the river channel presents a two-layer structure with flood currents near the bottom and ebb currents at the top layer in the region of seawater influenced on north shore under high river flow condition.The river discharge is a major factor affecting the salinity stratification in the estuarine system.The water exchange is mainly driven by the tidal forcing at the estuary mouth,except under high river flow conditions when the freshwater extends its influence from the river's head to its mouth.

  5. Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models in LASG/IAP

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    俞永强; 张学洪; 郭裕福

    2004-01-01

    Coupled ocean-atmospheric general circulation models are the only tools to quantitatively simulate the climate system. Since the end of the 1980s, a group of scientists in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), have been working to develop a global OGCM and a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM). From the original flux anomalycoupling model developed in the beginning of the 1990s to the latest directly-coupling model, LASG scientists have developed four global coupled GCMs. This study summarizes the development history of these models and describes the third and fourth coupled GCMs and selected applications. Strengths and weaknesses of these models are highlighted.

  6. Transition from fetal to neonatal circulation: Modeling the effect of umbilical cord clamping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yigit, Mehmet B; Kowalski, William J; Hutchon, David J R; Pekkan, Kerem

    2015-06-25

    Hemodynamics of the fetal to neonatal transition are orchestrated through complex physiological changes and results in cardiovascular adaptation to the adult biventricular circulation. Clinical practice during this critical period can influence vital organ physiology for normal newborns, premature babies and congenital heart defect patients. Particularly, the timing of the cord clamping procedure, immediate (ICC) vs. delayed cord clamping (DCC), is hypothesized to be an important factor for the transitory fetal hemodynamics. The clinical need for a quantitative understanding of this physiology motivated the development of a lumped parameter model (LPM) of the fetal cardio-respiratory system covering the late-gestation to neonatal period. The LPM was validated with in vivo clinical data and then used to predict the effects of cord clamping procedures on hemodynamics and vital gases. Clinical time-dependent resistance functions to simulate the vascular changes were introduced. For DCC, placental transfusion (31.3 ml) increased neonatal blood volume by 11.7%. This increased blood volume is reflected in an increase in preload pressures by ~20% compared to ICC, which in turn increased the cardiac output (CO) by 20% (COICC=993 ml/min; CODCC=1197 ml/min). Our model accurately predicted dynamic flow patterns in vivo. DCC was shown to maintain oxygenation if the onset of pulmonary respiration was delayed or impaired. On the other hand, a significant 25% decrease in oxygen saturations was observed when applying ICC under the same physiological conditions. We conclude that DCC has a significant impact on newborn hemodynamics, mainly because of the improved blood volume and the sustained placental respiration. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  7. Asymptotic solutions of the axisymmetric moist Hadley circulation in a model with two vertical modes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burns, Samuel P. [Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, NY (United States); New York University, Courant Institute, New York, NY (United States); Sobel, Adam H.; Polvani, Lorenzo M. [Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, NY (United States)

    2006-11-15

    A simplified model of the moist axisymmetric Hadley circulation is examined in the asymptotic limit in which surface drag is strong and the meridional wind is weak compared to the zonal wind. Our model consists of the quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model (QTCM) equations on an axisymmetric aquaplanet equatorial beta-plane. This model includes two vertical momentum modes, one baroclinic and one barotropic. Prior studies use either continuous stratification, or a shallow water system best viewed as representing the upper troposphere. The analysis here focuses on the interaction of the baroclinic and barotropic modes, and the way in which this interaction allows the constraints on the circulation known from the fully stratified case to be satisfied in an approximate way. The dry equations, with temperature forced by Newtonian relaxation towards a prescribed radiative equilibrium, are solved first. To leading order, the resulting circulation has a zonal wind profile corresponding to uniform angular momentum at a level near the tropopause, and zero zonal surface wind, owing to the cancelation of the barotropic and baroclinic modes there. The weak surface winds are calculated from the first-order corrections. The broad features of these solutions are similar to those obtained in previous studies of the dry Hadley circulation. The moist equations are solved next, with a fixed sea surface temperature at the lower boundary and simple parameterizations of surface fluxes, deep convection, and radiative transfer. The solutions yield the structure of the barotropic and baroclinic winds, as well as the temperature and moisture fields. In addition, we derive expressions for the width and strength of the equatorial precipitating region (ITCZ) and the width of the entire Hadley circulation. The ITCZ width is on the order of a few degrees in the absence of any horizontal diffusion and is relatively insensitive to parameter variations. (orig.)

  8. Improvement in Geoid Models for Ocean Circulation Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapley, Byron D.; Chambers, Don P.; Poole, Steve; Ries, John c.

    2003-01-01

    At wavelengths of 500 km and longer, the GRACE GGM01 Model produces a significantly better marine geoid than any previous model. This conclusion follows from evaluating the geostrophic currents determined by combining the model with a mean sea surface from altimetry. The agreement with currents computed from a traditional hydrographic map is very close, which suggests that one of the primary missions of the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission, to determine the absolute dynamic ocean topography, may soon be met. This solution has been made available to the public at http://www.csr.utexs.edu/grace/gravity. The results reported in this paper have been presented at the 2003 EGS-AGU-EUG Joint Assembly. Two articles are currently being prepared for Geophysical Research Letters to summarize these results.

  9. Coupling of Wave and Circulation Models in the Atlantic European North-West Shelf Predicting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staneva, Joanna; Krüger, Oliver; Behrens, Arno; Lewis, Huw; Castillo, Juan M.

    2017-04-01

    This study addresses the coupling between wind wave and circulation models on the example of the Atlantic - European North-West Shelf (NWS). This topic reflects the increased interest in operational oceanography to reduce prediction errors of state estimates at coastal scales. The uncertainties in most of the presently used models result from the nonlinear feedback between strong tidal currents and wind-waves, which can no longer be ignored, in particular in the coastal zone where its role seems to be dominant. Coupled circulation (NEMO) and wave model (WAM) system was used to study the effects of surface ocean waves on thermohaline distribution and ocean circulation at the NWS. Four scenarios - including Stokes-Coriolis force, sea-state dependent energy flux (additional turbulent kinetic energy due to breaking waves), sea-state dependent momentum flux and the combination of the three wave-induced forcing were performed to study the role of the wave-induced processes on model simulations. The individual and collective role of those processes is quantified and the results are compared with the NWS circulation model results without wave effects as well as against various in-situ measurements. The performance of the forecasting system is illustrated for the cases of several extreme events. The improved skills resulting from the new developments in the forecasting system, in particular during extreme events, justify further enhancements of the coastal operational systems. The study is performed in the frame of the COPERNICUS CMEMS Service Evolution Projects Wave2NEMO and OWAIRS.

  10. The benefits of extended plate motion history in mantle circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Peter; Davies, Huw; Davies, Rhodri; Hochard, Cyril; Stampfli, Gerard

    2010-05-01

    Mantle Circulation Models (MCMs) are mantle convection simulations conditioned with plate motion history. Due to difficulties in reconstructing plate motions beyond ≈ 120 Ma, MCMs often only incorporate the most recent 120 Myr of plate tectonic evolution. We find that such models are strongly influenced by initial conditions. The development of a new series of tectonic reconstructions extending back to the Triassic (230 Ma) and including careful reconstruction of the oceanic parts of the plates (modified from Stampfli and Borel, 2004, Stampfli et al. 2008 and references therein) should prove to be of huge importance to MCMs. In this study we present a comparison between the traditionally used 120 Myr and the latest 230 Myr plate motion histories. We use the three-dimensional spherical mantle convection code TERRA (Bunge et al., 2003) to simulate convection at Earth like vigour. Here we apply the plate motion history as a surface velocity boundary condition to drive the internal convection of an already well-mixed system. The forward models from a chosen starting point to present day yield information on mantle temperature (as well as pressure, velocity and material properties) throughout the volume. One of the ways to validate our results is to compare these with tomographic models. Seismic tomography provides us with a snapshot of Earth's mantle at present day. Assuming that the mantle is driven largely by thermal convection, we can assume that the seismically fast regions are associated with cooler, denser material. The most significant of these can be interpreted as remnants of subducted slabs (Hafkenscheid et al 2006, van der Meer et al. 2010). We convert the temperatures predicted by the MCM to seismic velocities using the latest techniques (e.g. Cobden et al., 2008) and compare the calculated velocities to a range of seismic tomography models (both P and S wave). This way we can examine the validity of the surface velocity boundary condition and identify

  11. Evaluation of a stratiform cloud parameterization for general circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghan, S.J.; Leung, L.R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States); McCaa, J. [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)

    1996-04-01

    To evaluate the relative importance of horizontal advection of cloud versus cloud formation within the grid cell of a single column model (SCM), we have performed a series of simulations with our SCM driven by a fixed vertical velocity and various rates of horizontal advection.

  12. Modelling of hydrodynamic circulation in Benoa Bay, Bali

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ningsih, Nining Sari; Muchamad, Al Azhar

    2013-01-01

    A simulation of water level, velocity, salinity, and temperature in the Bay of Benoa has been carried out using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic Estuarine and Coastal Ocean Model incorporating a main characteristic of southward transport of the Indonesian throughflow at the offshore area of the bay...

  13. Model validation of channel zapping quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kooij, Robert; Nicolai, Floris; Ahmed, Kamal; Brunnström, Kjell

    2009-02-01

    In an earlier paper we showed, that perceived quality of channel zapping is related to the perceived quality of download time of web browsing, as suggested by ITU-T Rec.G.1030. We showed this by performing subjective tests resulting in an excellent fit with a 0.99 correlation. This was what we call a lean forward experiment and gave the rule of thumb result that the zapping time must be less than 0.43 sec to be good ( > 3.5 on the MOS scale). To validate the model we have done new subjective experiments. These experiments included lean backwards zapping i.e. sitting in a sofa with a remote control. The subjects are more forgiving in this case and the requirement could be relaxed to 0.67 sec. We also conducted subjective experiments where the zapping times are varying. We found that the MOS rating decreases if zapping delay times are varying. In our experiments we assumed uniformly distributed delays, where the variance cannot be larger than the mean delay. We found that in order to obtain a MOS rating of at least 3.5, that the maximum allowed variance, and thus also the maximum allowed mean zapping delay, is 0.46 sec.

  14. Development of the Circulation Control Flow Scheme Used in the NTF Semi-Span FAST-MAC Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Gregory S.; Milholen, William E., II; Chan, David T.; Allan, Brian G.; Goodliff, Scott L.; Melton, Latunia P.; Anders, Scott G.; Carter, Melissa B.; Capone, Francis J.

    2013-01-01

    The application of a circulation control system for high Reynolds numbers was experimentally validated with the Fundamental Aerodynamic Subsonic Transonic Modular Active Control semi-span model in the NASA Langley National Transonic Facility. This model utilized four independent flow paths to modify the lift and thrust performance of a representative advanced transport type of wing. The design of the internal flow paths highlights the challenges associated with high Reynolds number testing in a cryogenic pressurized wind tunnel. Weight flow boundaries for the air delivery system were identified at mildly cryogenic conditions ranging from 0.1 to 10 lbm/sec. Results from the test verified system performance and identified solutions associated with the weight-flow metering system that are linked to internal perforated plates used to achieve flow uniformity at the jet exit.

  15. A global view of gravity waves in the Martian atmosphere inferred from a high-resolution general circulation model

    CERN Document Server

    Kuroda, Takeshi; Yiğit, Erdal; Hartogh, Paul

    2015-01-01

    Global characteristics of the small-scale gravity wave (GW) field in the Martian atmosphere obtained from a high-resolution general circulation model (GCM) are presented for the first time. The simulated GW-induced temperature variances are in a good agreement with available radio occultation data in the lower atmosphere between 10 and 30 km. The model reveals a latitudinal asymmetry with stronger wave generation in the winter hemisphere, and two distinctive sources of GWs: mountainous regions and the meandering winter polar jet. Orographic GWs are filtered while propagating upward, and the mesosphere is primarily dominated by harmonics with faster horizontal phase velocities. Wave fluxes are directed mainly against the local wind. GW dissipation in the upper mesosphere generates body forces of tens of m~s$^{-1}$~sol$^{-1}$, which tend to close the simulated jets. The results represent a realistic surrogate for missing observations, which can be used for constraining GW parameterizations and validating GCM si...

  16. A Nd Isotopic Composition Modeling Approach of the Oceanic Thermohaline Circulation Change During LGM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsouze, T.; Dutay, J.; Lacan, F.; Jeandel, C.; Alkama, R.; Kageyama, M.; Piotrowski, A.

    2006-12-01

    The role of thermohaline circulation in climate change has been a matter of debate for a long time. Proxies of past ocean circulation such as δ13C or 231Pa/230Th suggest a relationship between North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) strength and rapid climate change. Neodymium isotopic composition (Nd IC) is a quasi conservative geochemical tracer of water masses in the ocean interior and thus can be used as a proxy for NADW. Seawater Nd IC being recorded in marine sediments, this proxy is used to infer paleo-circulations on various time scales. Recent studies of Nd IC records, in the ferromanganese oxide components of a South Atlantic core, confirm the close relation between thermohaline circulation and North Atlantic climate changes through the last deglaciation (Piotrowski et al., 2004). Our purpose here is to model the Nd IC during the LGM and the Holocene with the Ocean Global Circulation Model NEMO, in the ORCA2 (2°) configuration. The explicit simulation of this proxy in the model allows to investigate and quantify the circulation change that corresponds to the Nd isotopic composition variation recorded in the sediments. We consider that the main source of Nd into the ocean is the interaction between water masses and continental margins (Boundary Exchange process; (Lacan and Jeandel, 2005). Boundary exchange is parameterized using a relaxing term (Arsouze et al., 2006). Simulated Nd IC distributions are evaluated by comparison with available records for the LGM and Holocene. References: Arsouze, T., Dutay, J.-C., Lacan, F. and Jeandel, C., 2006. Modeling the neodymium isotopic composition with a global ocean circulation model Chemical Geology, in press. Lacan, F. and Jeandel, C., 2005. Neodymium isotopes as a new tool for quantifying exchange fluxes at the continent - ocean interface. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 232(3-4): 245-257. Piotrowski, A.M., Goldstein, S.L., Hemming, S.R. and Fairbanks, R.G., 2004. Intensification and variability of ocean

  17. North Atlantic thermohaline circulation predictability in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

    CERN Document Server

    Griffies, S M; Griffies, Stephen M.; Bryan, Kirk

    1995-01-01

    Predictability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) variability as simulated in the GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model is established for a set of ensemble experiments. The ensembles consist of identical oceanic initial conditions underneath a model atmosphere chosen randomly from the model climatology. This experimental design is based on the separation in time scales present in the model which motivates the assumption that the predictability deduced from these ensembles provides an upper limit to the model's THC predictability. The climatology is taken from a multi-century model integration whose THC variability has power concentrated at the 40-60 year time scale. A linear stochastic perspective is shown to be generally consistent with the ensemble statistics. The linear theory suggests a natural measure of ensemble predictability as the time at which the ensemble variance becomes a subjectively defined fraction (0.5 used here) of the climatological variance. It is furth...

  18. An implementation of a barotropic quasigeostrophic model of ocean circulation on the MPP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosch, C. E.; Fatoohi, R.

    1987-01-01

    The implementation on the Massively Parallel Processor (MPP) of a barotropic quasigeostrophic model of ocean circulation is discussed. The mathematical model, including scalings and boundary conditions is discussed. The numerical scheme, which uses compact differencing is also discussed. The implementation of this model on the MPP is then presented. Finally, some performance results are given and compared to results obtained using the VPS-32 and one processor of a CRAY-2.

  19. Convection–climate feedbacks in the ECHAM5 general circulation model

    OpenAIRE

    Gehlot, Swati; Quaas, Johannes

    2015-01-01

    A process-oriented climate model evaluation is presented, applying the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) simulator to pinpoint deficiencies related to the cloud processes in the ECHAM5general circulation model.ALagrangian trajectory analysis is performed to track the transitions of anvil cirrus originating from deep convective detrainment to cirrostratus and thin cirrus, comparing ISCCP observations and the ECHAM5 model. Trajectories of cloudy air parcels originatin...

  20. A statistical assessment of tropical cyclone activity in atmospheric general circulation models

    OpenAIRE

    Suzana J. Camargo; Barnston, Anthony G; Zebiak, Stephen E.

    2005-01-01

    The properties of tropical cyclones in three low-resolution atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) in seven ocean basins are discussed. The models are forced by prescribed, observed sea surface temperatures over a period of 40 yr, and their simulations of tropical cyclone activity are compared with observations. The model cyclone characteristics considered include genesis position, number of cyclones per year, seasonality, accumulated cyclone energy, track locations, and number of sto...

  1. Application of blocking diagnosis methods to general circulation models. Part I: a novel detection scheme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barriopedro, D. [Universidade de Lisboa, CGUL-IDL, Faculdade de Ciencias, Ed. C-8, Lisbon (Portugal); Universidad de Extremadura, Departamento de Fisica, Facultad de Ciencias, Badajoz (Spain); Garcia-Herrera, R. [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Departamento de Fisica de la Tierra II, Facultad de C.C. Fisicas, Madrid (Spain); Trigo, R.M. [Universidade de Lisboa, CGUL-IDL, Faculdade de Ciencias, Ed. C-8, Lisbon (Portugal)

    2010-12-15

    This paper aims to provide a new blocking definition with applicability to observations and model simulations. An updated review of previous blocking detection indices is provided and some of their implications and caveats discussed. A novel blocking index is proposed by reconciling two traditional approaches based on anomaly and absolute flows. Blocks are considered from a complementary perspective as a signature in the anomalous height field capable of reversing the meridional jet-based height gradient in the total flow. The method succeeds in identifying 2-D persistent anomalies associated to a weather regime in the total flow with blockage of the westerlies. The new index accounts for the duration, intensity, extension, propagation, and spatial structure of a blocking event. In spite of its increased complexity, the detection efficiency of the method is improved without hampering the computational time. Furthermore, some misleading identification problems and artificial assumptions resulting from previous single blocking indices are avoided with the new approach. The characteristics of blocking for 40 years of reanalysis (1950-1989) over the Northern Hemisphere are described from the perspective of the new definition and compared to those resulting from two standard blocking indices and different critical thresholds. As compared to single approaches, the novel index shows a better agreement with reported proxies of blocking activity, namely climatological regions of simultaneous wave amplification and maximum band-pass filtered height standard deviation. An additional asset of the method is its adaptability to different data sets. As critical thresholds are specific of the data set employed, the method is useful for observations and model simulations of different resolutions, temporal lengths and time variant basic states, optimizing its value as a tool for model validation. Special attention has been paid on the devise of an objective scheme easily applicable

  2. Simulation of the Low-Level-Jet by general circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghan, S.J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1996-04-01

    To what degree is the low-level jet climatology and it`s impact on clouds and precipitation being captured by current general circulation models? It is hypothesised that a need for a pramaterization exists. This paper describes this parameterization need.

  3. Selected translated abstracts of Russian-language climate-change publications. 4: General circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burtis, M.D. [comp.] [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center; Razuvaev, V.N.; Sivachok, S.G. [All-Russian Research Inst. of Hydrometeorological Information--World Data Center, Obninsk (Russian Federation)

    1996-10-01

    This report presents English-translated abstracts of important Russian-language literature concerning general circulation models as they relate to climate change. Into addition to the bibliographic citations and abstracts translated into English, this report presents the original citations and abstracts in Russian. Author and title indexes are included to assist the reader in locating abstracts of particular interest.

  4. Modelling circulating tumour cells for personalised survival prediction in metastatic breast cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gianluca Ascolani

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Ductal carcinoma is one of the most common cancers among women, and the main cause of death is the formation of metastases. The development of metastases is caused by cancer cells that migrate from the primary tumour site (the mammary duct through the blood vessels and extravasating they initiate metastasis. Here, we propose a multi-compartment model which mimics the dynamics of tumoural cells in the mammary duct, in the circulatory system and in the bone. Through a branching process model, we describe the relation between the survival times and the four markers mainly involved in metastatic breast cancer (EPCAM, CD47, CD44 and MET. In particular, the model takes into account the gene expression profile of circulating tumour cells to predict personalised survival probability. We also include the administration of drugs as bisphosphonates, which reduce the formation of circulating tumour cells and their survival in the blood vessels, in order to analyse the dynamic changes induced by the therapy. We analyse the effects of circulating tumour cells on the progression of the disease providing a quantitative measure of the cell driver mutations needed for invading the bone tissue. Our model allows to design intervention scenarios that alter the patient-specific survival probability by modifying the populations of circulating tumour cells and it could be extended to other cancer metastasis dynamics.

  5. The response of Mediterranean thermohaline circulation to climate change: a minimal model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijer, P.Th.; Dijkstra, H.A.

    2009-01-01

    Physics-based understanding of the effects of paleoclimate and paleogeography on the thermohaline circulation of the Mediterranean Sea requires an ocean model capable of long integrations and involving a minimum of assumptions about the atmospheric forcing. Here we examine the sensitivity of the dee

  6. Symmetry Reductions of a 1.5-Layer Ocean Circulation Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The (2+1)-dimensional nonlinear 1.5-layer ocean circulation model without external wind stress forcing is analyzed by using the classical Lie group approach. Some Lie point symmetries and their corresponding two-dimensional reduction equations are obtained.

  7. On the design of an interactive biosphere for the GLAS general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mintz, Y.; Sellers, P. J.; Willmott, C. J.

    1983-01-01

    Improving the realism and accuracy of the GLAS general circulation model (by adding an interactive biosphere that will simulate the transfers of latent and sensible heat from land surface to atmosphere as functions of the atmospheric conditions and the morphology and physiology of the vegetation) is proposed.

  8. Improved short-term variability in the thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Häusler, K.; Hagan, M.E.; Baumgaertner, A.J.G.; Maute, A.; Lu, G.; Doornbos, E.N.; Bruinsma, S.; Forbes, J.M.; Gasperini, F.

    2014-01-01

    We report on a new source of tidal variability in the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM). Lower boundary forcing of the TIME-GCM for a simulation of November–December 2009 based on 3-hourly Modern-Era Retro

  9. Exploring the Venus global super-rotation using a comprehensive General Circulation Model

    CERN Document Server

    Mendonça, João M

    2016-01-01

    The atmospheric circulation in Venus is well known to exhibit strong super-rotation. However, the atmospheric mechanisms responsible for the formation of this super-rotation are still not fully understood. In this work, we developed a new Venus general circulation model to study the most likely mechanisms driving the atmosphere to the current observed circulation. Our model includes a new radiative transfer, convection and suitably adapted boundary layer schemes and a dynamical core that takes into account the dependence of the heat capacity at constant pressure with temperature. The new Venus model is able to simulate a super-rotation phenomenon in the cloud region quantitatively similar to the one observed. The mechanisms maintaining the strong winds in the cloud region were found in the model results to be a combination of zonal mean circulation, thermal tides and transient waves. In this process, the semi-diurnal tide excited in the upper clouds has a key contribution in transporting axial angular momentu...

  10. Model-free adaptive control of supercritical circulating fluidized-bed boilers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, George Shu-Xing; Mulkey, Steven L

    2014-12-16

    A novel 3-Input-3-Output (3.times.3) Fuel-Air Ratio Model-Free Adaptive (MFA) controller is introduced, which can effectively control key process variables including Bed Temperature, Excess O2, and Furnace Negative Pressure of combustion processes of advanced boilers. A novel 7-input-7-output (7.times.7) MFA control system is also described for controlling a combined 3-Input-3-Output (3.times.3) process of Boiler-Turbine-Generator (BTG) units and a 5.times.5 CFB combustion process of advanced boilers. Those boilers include Circulating Fluidized-Bed (CFB) Boilers and Once-Through Supercritical Circulating Fluidized-Bed (OTSC CFB) Boilers.

  11. Uncertainty analysis of statistical downscaling models using general circulation model over an international wetland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etemadi, H.; Samadi, S.; Sharifikia, M.

    2014-06-01

    Regression-based statistical downscaling model (SDSM) is an appropriate method which broadly uses to resolve the coarse spatial resolution of general circulation models (GCMs). Nevertheless, the assessment of uncertainty propagation linked with climatic variables is essential to any climate change impact study. This study presents a procedure to characterize uncertainty analysis of two GCM models link with Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) and SDSM in one of the most vulnerable international wetland, namely "Shadegan" in an arid region of Southwest Iran. In the case of daily temperature, uncertainty is estimated by comparing monthly mean and variance of downscaled and observed daily data at a 95 % confidence level. Uncertainties were then evaluated from comparing monthly mean dry and wet spell lengths and their 95 % CI in daily precipitation downscaling using 1987-2005 interval. The uncertainty results indicated that the LARS-WG is the most proficient model at reproducing various statistical characteristics of observed data at a 95 % uncertainty bounds while the SDSM model is the least capable in this respect. The results indicated a sequences uncertainty analysis at three different climate stations and produce significantly different climate change responses at 95 % CI. Finally the range of plausible climate change projections suggested a need for the decision makers to augment their long-term wetland management plans to reduce its vulnerability to climate change impacts.

  12. Validation technique using mean and variance of kriging model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Ho Sung; Jung, Jae Jun; Lee, Tae Hee [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2007-07-01

    To validate rigorously the accuracy of metamodel is an important research area in metamodel techniques. A leave-k-out cross-validation technique not only requires considerable computational cost but also cannot measure quantitatively the fidelity of metamodel. Recently, the average validation technique has been proposed. However the average validation criterion may stop a sampling process prematurely even if kriging model is inaccurate yet. In this research, we propose a new validation technique using an average and a variance of response during a sequential sampling method, such as maximum entropy sampling. The proposed validation technique becomes more efficient and accurate than cross-validation technique, because it integrates explicitly kriging model to achieve an accurate average and variance, rather than numerical integration. The proposed validation technique shows similar trend to root mean squared error such that it can be used as a strop criterion for sequential sampling.

  13. Validity of covariance models for the analysis of geographical variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guillot, Gilles; Schilling, Rene L.; Porcu, Emilio

    2014-01-01

    attention lately and show that the conditions under which they are valid mathematical models have been overlooked so far. 3. We provide rigorous results for the construction of valid covariance models in this family. 4. We also outline how to construct alternative covariance models for the analysis...

  14. Importance of Sea Ice for Validating Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geiger, Cathleen A.

    1997-01-01

    Reproduction of current day large-scale physical features and processes is a critical test of global climate model performance. Without this benchmark, prognoses of future climate conditions are at best speculation. A fundamental question relevant to this issue is, which processes and observations are both robust and sensitive enough to be used for model validation and furthermore are they also indicators of the problem at hand? In the case of global climate, one of the problems at hand is to distinguish between anthropogenic and naturally occuring climate responses. The polar regions provide an excellent testing ground to examine this problem because few humans make their livelihood there, such that anthropogenic influences in the polar regions usually spawn from global redistribution of a source originating elsewhere. Concomitantly, polar regions are one of the few places where responses to climate are non-anthropogenic. Thus, if an anthropogenic effect has reached the polar regions (e.g. the case of upper atmospheric ozone sensitivity to CFCs), it has most likely had an impact globally but is more difficult to sort out from local effects in areas where anthropogenic activity is high. Within this context, sea ice has served as both a monitoring platform and sensitivity parameter of polar climate response since the time of Fridtjof Nansen. Sea ice resides in the polar regions at the air-sea interface such that changes in either the global atmospheric or oceanic circulation set up complex non-linear responses in sea ice which are uniquely determined. Sea ice currently covers a maximum of about 7% of the earth's surface but was completely absent during the Jurassic Period and far more extensive during the various ice ages. It is also geophysically very thin (typically global climate.

  15. An inverse modeling study of circulation in the Eastern Bering Sea during 2007-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panteleev, Gleb; Yaremchuk, Max; Francis, Oceana; Stabeno, Phyllis J.; Weingartner, T.; Zhang, J.

    2016-06-01

    A two-way nested 4d-variational data assimilation system is implemented in the Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) to investigate changes in circulation and thermodynamic state for a 3.8 year period. Assimilated observations include data from 19 moorings deployed on the shelf and in the Bering Strait, 1705 hydrographic stations occupied during eight surveys, and remotely sensed sea surface temperature and sea surface height (SSH) data. Validation of the presented 4dVar reanalysis against the output of two sequential data-assimilative systems (the Bering Ecosystem Study ice-ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (BESTMAS) and the Arctic Cap Nowcast-Forecast System (ACNFS)) has shown that the product is more consistent with the observed transports in the Bering Strait and in the EBS interior both in terms of their magnitude and time variability. Analysis of the data-optimized solution quantifies a sequence of wind-forced events that resulted in the anomalous heat and freshwater transports through the Bering Strait, including a 28 day long flow reversal that occurred in November 2009 and carried Siberian Coastal Current water down to the Gulf of Anadyr. Lagrangian study of the Arctic-bound Pacific waters indicates the extreme importance of the cross-shelf exchange along the path of the Bering Slope Current and quantifies the spectrum of residence times for the waters entering EBS through Unimak Pass and through Aleutian passages. Residence times in the EBS cold pool are diagnosed to be 2-3 times longer than those in the surrounding waters.

  16. Comparing a quasi-3D to a full 3D nearshore circulation model: SHORECIRC and ROMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haas, K.A.; Warner, J.C.

    2009-01-01

    Predictions of nearshore and surf zone processes are important for determining coastal circulation, impacts of storms, navigation, and recreational safety. Numerical modeling of these systems facilitates advancements in our understanding of coastal changes and can provide predictive capabilities for resource managers. There exists many nearshore coastal circulation models, however they are mostly limited or typically only applied as depth integrated models. SHORECIRC is an established surf zone circulation model that is quasi-3D to allow the effect of the variability in the vertical structure of the currents while maintaining the computational advantage of a 2DH model. Here we compare SHORECIRC to ROMS, a fully 3D ocean circulation model which now includes a three dimensional formulation for the wave-driven flows. We compare the models with three different test applications for: (i) spectral waves approaching a plane beach with an oblique angle of incidence; (ii) monochromatic waves driving longshore currents in a laboratory basin; and (iii) monochromatic waves on a barred beach with rip channels in a laboratory basin. Results identify that the models are very similar for the depth integrated flows and qualitatively consistent for the vertically varying components. The differences are primarily the result of the vertically varying radiation stress utilized by ROMS and the utilization of long wave theory for the radiation stress formulation in vertical varying momentum balance by SHORECIRC. The quasi-3D model is faster, however the applicability of the fully 3D model allows it to extend over a broader range of processes, temporal, and spatial scales. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

  17. Test-driven verification/validation of model transformations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    László LENGYEL; Hassan CHARAF

    2015-01-01

    Why is it important to verify/validate model transformations? The motivation is to improve the quality of the trans-formations, and therefore the quality of the generated software artifacts. Verified/validated model transformations make it possible to ensure certain properties of the generated software artifacts. In this way, verification/validation methods can guarantee different requirements stated by the actual domain against the generated/modified/optimized software products. For example, a verified/ validated model transformation can ensure the preservation of certain properties during the model-to-model transformation. This paper emphasizes the necessity of methods that make model transformation verified/validated, discusses the different scenarios of model transformation verification and validation, and introduces the principles of a novel test-driven method for verifying/ validating model transformations. We provide a solution that makes it possible to automatically generate test input models for model transformations. Furthermore, we collect and discuss the actual open issues in the field of verification/validation of model transformations.

  18. System Advisor Model: Flat Plate Photovoltaic Performance Modeling Validation Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freeman, J.; Whitmore, J.; Kaffine, L.; Blair, N.; Dobos, A. P.

    2013-12-01

    The System Advisor Model (SAM) is a free software tool that performs detailed analysis of both system performance and system financing for a variety of renewable energy technologies. This report provides detailed validation of the SAM flat plate photovoltaic performance model by comparing SAM-modeled PV system generation data to actual measured production data for nine PV systems ranging from 75 kW to greater than 25 MW in size. The results show strong agreement between SAM predictions and field data, with annualized prediction error below 3% for all fixed tilt cases and below 8% for all one axis tracked cases. The analysis concludes that snow cover and system outages are the primary sources of disagreement, and other deviations resulting from seasonal biases in the irradiation models and one axis tracking issues are discussed in detail.

  19. SDG-based Model Validation in Chemical Process Simulation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张贝克; 许欣; 马昕; 吴重光

    2013-01-01

    Signed direct graph (SDG) theory provides algorithms and methods that can be applied directly to chemical process modeling and analysis to validate simulation models, and is a basis for the development of a soft-ware environment that can automate the validation activity. This paper is concentrated on the pretreatment of the model validation. We use the validation scenarios and standard sequences generated by well-established SDG model to validate the trends fitted from the simulation model. The results are helpful to find potential problems, as-sess possible bugs in the simulation model and solve the problem effectively. A case study on a simulation model of boiler is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of this method.

  20. Modeling the distribution of Nd isotopes in the oceans using an offline Ocean General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, K. M.; Khatiwala, S. P.; Goldstein, S. L.; Hemming, S. R.; van de Flierdt, T.

    2007-12-01

    The authigenic (seawater-derived) Nd isotopic composition of marine archives is increasingly used to study changes in ocean circulation on tectonic to millennial time-scales. Such applications for Nd isotopes assume that water masses are "tagged" with distinct Nd isotopic compositions in source regions and mix quasi- conservatively thereafter. However, there are a number of possible sources and sinks of Nd within the ocean that may complicate quasi-conservative behavior, including input from rivers, dissolution of dust, exchange at continental margin boundaries, and fluxes from the ocean-sediment interface. We use an offline ocean general circulation model (OGCM) to model the distribution of Nd isotope variability in seawater. A major obstacle to a thorough understanding of the marine Nd cycle is the lack of a truly global dataset of Nd isotopes in the modern oceans--most data are focused in only a few regions of the ocean. However, even within the constraints of sparse data, a better understanding of sources, sinks, and internal cycling of Nd and its isotopes can be reached through ocean modeling. We take a simple approach, treating the Nd isotopic composition of seawater as a conservative tracer, neglecting the effect of variable Nd concentrations on mixing. Nd isotope data from modern surface waters are used to generate a map of Nd isotope compositions for the entire surface ocean. This map is treated as a fixed boundary condition, and Nd isotope compositions of the surface are transported and mixed according to the flow characteristics of the OGCM until the interior ocean reaches a steady state. This simple approach produces Nd isotope estimates for North Atlantic Deep Water that are consistent with the observations, but produces values lower than observed in the deep Pacific and Southern Oceans. However, by introducing an additional source of Nd in the deep Pacific with higher Nd isotope ratios, the model output agrees well with the data. With the addition of

  1. Surface circulation at the Strait of Gibraltar: A combined HF radar and high resolution model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soto-Navarro, Javier; Lorente, Pablo; Álvarez Fanjul, Enrique; Carlos Sánchez-Garrido, Jose; García-Lafuente, Jesús

    2016-03-01

    Observations from a high frequency radar system and outputs from a high resolution operational ocean model working at the Strait of Gibraltar have been analyzed and compared during the period February 2013 to September 2014 in order to evaluate their capability to resolve the surface circulation of the region. The description of the mean circulation patterns has been statistically assessed, showing good agreement, particularly in the central region of the strait corresponding with the Atlantic Jet (AJ) stream, although some short scale features are not reproduced by the model. In the frequency domain very high concordance is observed. Tidal maps of diurnal and semidiurnal constituents are in good agreement with previous observations. The analysis of the model and radar response to the wind forcing reveals that the low resolution of the model wind-forcing field and its deeper superficial level smoothes the wind effect on the simulated currents. The first three EOF modes account for the 86% of model and radar variances. The coincidence between the observed and simulated patterns is very significant for the first two modes, which account for the mean velocity field and the latitudinal shifting of the AJ consequence of the flow-topography interaction. The third mode captures the wind-induced circulation, and greater discrepancies are found in this case. Results underline the complementary character of both systems: radar observations improve the model description, resolving short scale processes, while the model completes the radar information when the time or spatial coverage is poorer.

  2. A computational model for estimating the mechanics of horizontal flapping flight in bats: model description and validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watts, P; Mitchell, E J; Swartz, S M

    2001-08-01

    We combine three-dimensional descriptions of the movement patterns of the shoulder, elbow, carpus, third metacarpophalangeal joint and wingtip with a constant-circulation estimation of aerodynamic force to model the wing mechanics of the grey-headed flying fox (Pteropus poliocephalus) in level flight. Once rigorously validated, this computer model can be used to study diverse aspects of flight. In the model, we partitioned the wing into a series of chordwise segments and calculated the magnitude of segmental aerodynamic forces assuming an elliptical, spanwise distribution of circulation at the middle of the downstroke. The lift component of the aerodynamic force is typically an order of magnitude greater than the thrust component. The largest source of drag is induced drag, which is approximately an order of magnitude greater than body form and skin friction drag. Using this model and standard engineering beam theory, we calculate internal reaction forces, moments and stresses at the humeral and radial midshaft during flight. To assess the validity of our model, we compare the model-derived stresses with our previous in vivo empirical measurements of bone strain from P. poliocephalus in free flapping flight. Agreement between bone stresses from the simulation and those calculated from empirical strain measurements is excellent and suggests that the computer model captures a significant portion of the mechanics and aerodynamics of flight in this species.

  3. Modeling Study of a New Circulating Fluidized Bi—Bed Boiler Combustion System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZhaoJian; SuoYisheng; 等

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents a set of general dynamic mathematical models for the combustion system of a circulating fluidized bi-bed boiler,The models fully consider the flow.combustion and heat transfer characteristics,and describe the physical and chemical processes inside the bi-bed,including the gassolid flow.multiple particles combustion,gas chemical reactions,heat transfer and pressure balances.etc.

  4. World Ocean Circulation Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, R. Allyn

    1992-01-01

    The oceans are an equal partner with the atmosphere in the global climate system. The World Ocean Circulation Experiment is presently being implemented to improve ocean models that are useful for climate prediction both by encouraging more model development but more importantly by providing quality data sets that can be used to force or to validate such models. WOCE is the first oceanographic experiment that plans to generate and to use multiparameter global ocean data sets. In order for WOCE to succeed, oceanographers must establish and learn to use more effective methods of assembling, quality controlling, manipulating and distributing oceanographic data.

  5. Adaptive subdomain modeling: A multi-analysis technique for ocean circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altuntas, Alper; Baugh, John

    2017-07-01

    Many coastal and ocean processes of interest operate over large temporal and geographical scales and require a substantial amount of computational resources, particularly when engineering design and failure scenarios are also considered. This study presents an adaptive multi-analysis technique that improves the efficiency of these computations when multiple alternatives are being simulated. The technique, called adaptive subdomain modeling, concurrently analyzes any number of child domains, with each instance corresponding to a unique design or failure scenario, in addition to a full-scale parent domain providing the boundary conditions for its children. To contain the altered hydrodynamics originating from the modifications, the spatial extent of each child domain is adaptively adjusted during runtime depending on the response of the model. The technique is incorporated in ADCIRC++, a re-implementation of the popular ADCIRC ocean circulation model with an updated software architecture designed to facilitate this adaptive behavior and to utilize concurrent executions of multiple domains. The results of our case studies confirm that the method substantially reduces computational effort while maintaining accuracy.

  6. Statistical validation of normal tissue complication probability models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Cheng-Jian; van der Schaaf, Arjen; Van't Veld, Aart A; Langendijk, Johannes A; Schilstra, Cornelis

    2012-09-01

    To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), was used to build NTCP models for xerostomia after radiation therapy treatment of head-and-neck cancer. Model assessment was based on the likelihood function and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Repeated double cross-validation showed the uncertainty and instability of the NTCP models and indicated that the statistical significance of model performance can be obtained by permutation testing. Repeated double cross-validation and permutation tests are recommended to validate NTCP models before clinical use. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Statistical Validation of Normal Tissue Complication Probability Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu Chengjian, E-mail: c.j.xu@umcg.nl [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Schaaf, Arjen van der; Veld, Aart A. van' t; Langendijk, Johannes A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Schilstra, Cornelis [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Radiotherapy Institute Friesland, Leeuwarden (Netherlands)

    2012-09-01

    Purpose: To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. Methods and Materials: A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), was used to build NTCP models for xerostomia after radiation therapy treatment of head-and-neck cancer. Model assessment was based on the likelihood function and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: Repeated double cross-validation showed the uncertainty and instability of the NTCP models and indicated that the statistical significance of model performance can be obtained by permutation testing. Conclusion: Repeated double cross-validation and permutation tests are recommended to validate NTCP models before clinical use.

  8. A wind-driven circulation model of the Tyrrhenian Sea area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierini, S.; Simioli, A.

    1998-12-01

    The wind-driven component of the circulation in the Tyrrhenian Sea area was analyzed by means of a free-surface, barotropic primitive equation model implemented in the whole Mediterranean Sea. The `National Meteorological Center' (NMC) wind data covering the period 1980-1988 were used to force the model. Both the seasonal and the high frequency variability were studied. For the first case, a perpetual wind forcing was constructed by instantaneously averaging the wind stresses over the 9 years, and the response was Fourier filtered in order to get rid of the residual rapid fluctuations. The daily variability was then produced for the test years 1981 and 1987 by making use of the instantaneous forcing. The main features of the wind-driven climatological Tyrrhenian circulation known from data and general circulation modelling were found to be reproduced by this process model. The winter cyclonic circulation induced by the strong positive wind vorticity input evolved into a much weaker, partially reversed circulation in summer months. A mainly northward flux through the strait of Corsica and a horizontally sheared current in the strait of Sicily were found. The rapid fluctuations that the wind was able to induce in the ocean were then studied. The instantaneous currents were found to be up to 10 times larger than the corresponding climatological ones, with episodes of reversal over a period of few days. The experimental evidence of the existence of these rapid wind-driven fluctuations is discussed. The analysis of the daily variability provides a realistic picture of the character of the wind-driven circulation in the Tyrrhenian Sea that differs considerably from the classical seasonal dynamics. As an indicator of the Tyrrhenian Sea dynamics, the mass transport through the strait of Corsica was evaluated for the year 1987 and compared with available experimental data. As a result, the low-passed wind-driven transport reflects the seasonal trend and accounts for 15

  9. Validation of ecological state space models using the Laplace approximation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Albertsen, Christoffer Moesgaard; Berg, Casper Willestofte

    2017-01-01

    Many statistical models in ecology follow the state space paradigm. For such models, the important step of model validation rarely receives as much attention as estimation or hypothesis testing, perhaps due to lack of available algorithms and software. Model validation is often based on a naive...... for estimation in general mixed effects models. Implementing one-step predictions in the R package Template Model Builder, we demonstrate that it is possible to perform model validation with little effort, even if the ecological model is multivariate, has non-linear dynamics, and whether observations...... are continuous or discrete. With both simulated data, and a real data set related to geolocation of seals, we demonstrate both the potential and the limitations of the techniques. Our results fill a need for convenient methods for validating a state space model, or alternatively, rejecting it while indicating...

  10. The experiment of monthly mean circulation prediction using the analogy-dynamical model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    BAO Ming; NI Yunqi; CHOU Jifan

    2004-01-01

    Based on the past related research work, a new analogy-dynamical monthly prediction model is established with the operational dynamic extended-range forecast model T63L16 (hereafter T63) as a dynamic kernel. The monthly mean circulation prediction with T63 is considered as a control experiment, and the prediction with the analogy-dynamical model as a contrast one. It is found that the analogy-dynamical model has more precise forecast skill than the T63 model through monthly mean numerical prediction experiment.

  11. Prospective transcriptomic pathway analysis of human lymphatic vascular insufficiency: identification and validation of a circulating biomarker panel.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shin Lin

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In our previous transcriptional profiling of a murine model, we have identified a remarkably small number of specific pathways with altered expression in lymphedema. In this investigation, we utilized microarray-based transcriptomics of human skin for an unbiased a priori prospective candidate identification, with subsequent validation of these candidates through direct serum assay. The resulting multi-analyte biomarker panel sensitively should sensitively discriminate human lymphedema subjects from normal individuals. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We enrolled 63 lymphedema subjects and 27 normals in our attempt to discover protein analytes that can distinguish diseased individuals from controls. To minimize technical and biologically irrelevant variation, we first identified potential candidates by performing transcriptional microarray analysis on paired diseased and normal skin specimens sampled from the same individuals. We focused our attention on genes with corresponding protein products that are secreted and took these candidates forward to a protein multiplex assay applied to diseased and normal subjects. We developed a logistic regression-based model on an eventual group of six proteins and validated our system on a separate cohort of study subjects. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was calculated to be 0.87 (95% CI : 0.75 to 0.97. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed an accurate bioassay utilizing proteins representing four central pathogenetic modalities of the disease: lymphangiogenesis, inflammation, fibrosis, and lipid metabolism, suggesting that these proteins are directly related to the pathogenesis of the tissue pathology in lymphatic vascular insufficiency. Further studies are warranted to determine whether this newly-identified biomarker panel will possess utility as an instrument for in vitro diagnosis of early and latent disease; the ultimate applicability to risk stratification, quantitation of

  12. Three Dimensional Vapor Intrusion Modeling: Model Validation and Uncertainty Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akbariyeh, S.; Patterson, B.; Rakoczy, A.; Li, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Volatile organic chemicals (VOCs), such as chlorinated solvents and petroleum hydrocarbons, are prevalent groundwater contaminants due to their improper disposal and accidental spillage. In addition to contaminating groundwater, VOCs may partition into the overlying vadose zone and enter buildings through gaps and cracks in foundation slabs or basement walls, a process termed vapor intrusion. Vapor intrusion of VOCs has been recognized as a detrimental source for human exposures to potential carcinogenic or toxic compounds. The simulation of vapor intrusion from a subsurface source has been the focus of many studies to better understand the process and guide field investigation. While multiple analytical and numerical models were developed to simulate the vapor intrusion process, detailed validation of these models against well controlled experiments is still lacking, due to the complexity and uncertainties associated with site characterization and soil gas flux and indoor air concentration measurement. In this work, we present an effort to validate a three-dimensional vapor intrusion model based on a well-controlled experimental quantification of the vapor intrusion pathways into a slab-on-ground building under varying environmental conditions. Finally, a probabilistic approach based on Monte Carlo simulations is implemented to determine the probability distribution of indoor air concentration based on the most uncertain input parameters.

  13. Prospects and problems for standardizing model validation in systems biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, Fridolin; MacLeod, Miles

    2017-10-01

    There are currently no widely shared criteria by which to assess the validity of computational models in systems biology. Here we discuss the feasibility and desirability of implementing validation standards for modeling. Having such a standard would facilitate journal review, interdisciplinary collaboration, model exchange, and be especially relevant for applications close to medical practice. However, even though the production of predictively valid models is considered a central goal, in practice modeling in systems biology employs a variety of model structures and model-building practices. These serve a variety of purposes, many of which are heuristic and do not seem to require strict validation criteria and may even be restricted by them. Moreover, given the current situation in systems biology, implementing a validation standard would face serious technical obstacles mostly due to the quality of available empirical data. We advocate a cautious approach to standardization. However even though rigorous standardization seems premature at this point, raising the issue helps us develop better insights into the practices of systems biology and the technical problems modelers face validating models. Further it allows us to identify certain technical validation issues which hold regardless of modeling context and purpose. Informal guidelines could in fact play a role in the field by helping modelers handle these. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Exploring the Venus global super-rotation using a comprehensive general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendonça, J. M.; Read, P. L.

    2016-12-01

    The atmospheric circulation in Venus is well known to exhibit strong super-rotation. However, the atmospheric mechanisms responsible for the formation of this super-rotation are still not fully understood. In this work, we developed a new Venus general circulation model to study the most likely mechanisms driving the atmosphere to the current observed circulation. Our model includes a new radiative transfer, convection and suitably adapted boundary layer schemes and a dynamical core that takes into account the dependence of the heat capacity at constant pressure with temperature. The new Venus model is able to simulate a super-rotation phenomenon in the cloud region quantitatively similar to the one observed. The mechanisms maintaining the strong winds in the cloud region were found in the model results to be a combination of zonal mean circulation, thermal tides and transient waves. In this process, the semi-diurnal tide excited in the upper clouds has a key contribution in transporting axial angular momentum mainly from the upper atmosphere towards the cloud region. The magnitude of the super-rotation in the cloud region is sensitive to various radiative parameters such as the amount of solar radiative energy absorbed by the surface, which controls the static stability near the surface. In this work, we also discuss the main difficulties in representing the flow below the cloud base in Venus atmospheric models. Our new radiative scheme is more suitable for 3D Venus climate models than those used in previous work due to its easy adaptability to different atmospheric conditions. This flexibility of the model was crucial to explore the uncertainties in the lower atmospheric conditions and may also be used in the future to explore, for example, dynamical-radiative-microphysical feedbacks.

  15. A new analytical model for conduction heating during the SAGD circulation phase

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duong, A.N. [Society of Petroleum Engineers, Canadian Section, Calgary, AB (Canada)]|[ConocoPhillips Canada Resources Corp., Calgary, AB (Canada); Tomberlin, T.A. [ConocoPhillips Canada Resources Corp., Calgary, AB (Canada); Cyrot, M. [Total E and P Canada Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2008-10-15

    The steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) process has become the common procedure to recover bitumen from Alberta's oilsands. Inter-well communication must be initiated during the start-up phase of a SAGD process. The shape of an initial steam chamber that develops during the circulation phase influences the efficiency of bitumen recovery. As such, the heating conformance distributed along the horizontal wellbores must be well understood. The duration of the start-up phase varies with the characteristics of the oilsand formation and the distance between the wellbores, but it is typically a month to several months. This paper presented a newly developed analytical model that predicts the initial steam chamber. The model improves bitumen recovery efficiency by predicting the mid-point temperature front and heating efficiency of a wellpair during the SAGD circulation phase. The Excel-based model uses the exponential integral solution for radial heating in a long cylinder and superposition in space for multi-heating sources. It can predict the temperature profile if the steam temperatures or pressures are known during the circulation period. Wellbore modeling that includes any variation in distances between the wellbores is critical to both circulation time and heating conformance. This model has an advantage over numerical simulation in terms of reducing computational time and accurately modelling any variation in distance between wellbores. The results can be optimized under various operational conditions, wellbore profiles, tubing sizes and convection flow effects. This easy to use model is currently being used by ConocoPhillips Canada to optimize, predict and guide oilsands projects during the start-up phase of a SAGD process. 5 refs., 13 figs.

  16. Prediction of hybrid means from a partial circulant diallel table using the ordinary least square and the mixed model methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Américo José dos Santos Reis

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available By definition, the genetic effects obtained from a circulant diallel table are random. However, because of the methods of analysis, those effects have been considered as fixed. Two different statistical approaches were applied. One assumed the model to be fixed and obtained solutions through the ordinary least square (OLS method. The other assumed a mixed model and estimated the fixed effects (BLUE by generalized least squares (GLS and the best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP of the random effects. The goal of this study was to evaluate the consequences when considering these effects as fixed or random, using the coefficient of correlation between the responses of observed and non-observed hybrids. Crossings were made between S1 inbred lines from two maize populations developed at Universidade Federal de Goiás, the UFG-Samambaia "Dent" and UFG-Samambaia "Flint". A circulant inter-group design was applied, and there were five (s = 5 crossings for each parent. The predictions were made using a reduced model. Diallels with different sizes of s (from 2 to 5 were simulated, and the coefficients of correlation were obtained using two different approaches for each size of s. In the first approach, the observed hybrids were included in both the estimation of the genetic parameters and the coefficient of correlation, while in the second a cross-validation process was employed. In this process, the set of hybrids was divided in two groups: one group, comprising 75% of the original group, to estimate the genetic parameters, and a second one, consisting of the remaining 25%, to validate the predictions. In all cases, a bootstrap process with 200 resamplings was used to generate the empirical distribution of the correlation coefficient. This coefficient showed a decrease as the value of s decreased. The cross-validation method allowed to estimate the bias magnitude in evaluating the correlation coefficient using the same hybrids, to predict the genetic

  17. Requirements Validation: Execution of UML Models with CPN Tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Machado, Ricardo J.; Lassen, Kristian Bisgaard; Oliveira, Sérgio

    2007-01-01

    with simple unified modelling language (UML) requirements models, it is not easy for the development team to get confidence on the stakeholders' requirements validation. This paper describes an approach, based on the construction of executable interactive prototypes, to support the validation of workflow...

  18. Prospects and problems for standardizing model validation in systems biology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gross, Fridolin; MacLeod, Miles Alexander James

    2017-01-01

    There are currently no widely shared criteria by which to assess the validity of computational models in systems biology. Here we discuss the feasibility and desirability of implementing validation standards for modeling. Having such a standard would facilitate journal review, interdisciplinary coll

  19. Validation and Adaptation of Router and Switch Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boltjes, B.; Fernandez Diaz, I.; Kock, B.A.; Langeveld, R.J.G.M.; Schoenmaker, G.

    2003-01-01

    This paper describes validating OPNET models of key devices for the next generation IP-based tactical network of the Royal Netherlands Army (RNLA). The task of TNO-FEL is to provide insight in scalability and performance of future deployed networks. Because validated models ol key Cisco equipment we

  20. Foundational Issues in Statistical Modeling: Statistical Model Specification and Validation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aris Spanos

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Statistical model specification and validation raise crucial foundational problems whose pertinent resolution holds the key to learning from data by securing the reliability of frequentist inference. The paper questions the judiciousness of several current practices, including the theory-driven approach, and the Akaike-type model selection procedures, arguing that they often lead to unreliable inferences. This is primarily due to the fact that goodness-of-fit/prediction measures and other substantive and pragmatic criteria are of questionable value when the estimated model is statistically misspecified. Foisting one's favorite model on the data often yields estimated models which are both statistically and substantively misspecified, but one has no way to delineate between the two sources of error and apportion blame. The paper argues that the error statistical approach can address this Duhemian ambiguity by distinguishing between statistical and substantive premises and viewing empirical modeling in a piecemeal way with a view to delineate the various issues more effectively. It is also argued that Hendry's general to specific procedures does a much better job in model selection than the theory-driven and the Akaike-type procedures primary because of its error statistical underpinnings.

  1. Cloud-radiative effects on implied oceanic energy transport as simulated by atmospheric general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleckler, P. J.; Randall, D. A.; Boer, G.; Colman, R.; Dix, M.; Galin, V.; Helfand, M.; Kiehl, J.; Kitoh, A.; Lau, W.

    1995-01-01

    This paper summarizes the ocean surface net energy flux simulated by fifteen atmospheric general circulation models constrained by realistically-varying sea surface temperatures and sea ice as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. In general, the simulated energy fluxes are within the very large observational uncertainties. However, the annual mean oceanic meridional heat transport that would be required to balance the simulated surface fluxes is shown to be critically sensitive to the radiative effects of clouds, to the extent that even the sign of the Southern Hemisphere ocean heat transport can be affected by the errors in simulated cloud-radiation interactions. It is suggested that improved treatment of cloud radiative effects should help in the development of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models.

  2. A method to permanently collapse the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in climate models

    CERN Document Server

    Cimatoribus, Andrea A; Drijfhout, Sybren S; Dijkstra, Henk A

    2011-01-01

    The sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to changes in basin integrated net evaporation is highly dependent on the zonal salinity contrast at the southern border of the Atlantic. Biases in the freshwater budget strongly affect the stability of the AMOC. The impact of these biases is investigated in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model by adding local anomaly patterns to the freshwater fluxes at the surface. These anomalies impact the freshwater and salt transport by the different components of the ocean circulation, in particular the basin-scale salt-advection feedback, completely changing the response of the AMOC to arbitrary perturbations. It is found that an appropriate dipole anomaly pattern at the southern border of the Atlantic Ocean can collapse the AMOC entirely even without a further hosing. Based on these results, a method is proposed for permanently collapsing the AMOC in climate models and to systematically test the existence of multiple equilibria in these models.

  3. Toward Validation of the Diagnostic-Prescriptive Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ysseldyke, James E.; Sabatino, David A.

    1973-01-01

    Criticized are recent research efforts to validate the diagnostic prescriptive model of remediating learning disabilities, and proposed is a 6-step psychoeducational model designed to ascertain links between behavioral differences and instructional outcomes. (DB)

  4. Models for Validation of Prior Learning (VPL)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ehlers, Søren

    would have been categorized as utopian can become realpolitik. Validation of Prior Learning (VPL) was in Europe mainly regarded as utopian while universities in the United States of America (USA) were developing ways to obtain credits to those students which was coming with experiences from working life....

  5. Modeling and Simulation Behavior Validation Methodology and Extension Model Validation for the Individual Soldier

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    Historical Methods The three historical methods of validation are rationalism, empiricism , and positive economics. Rationalism requires that... Empiricism requires every assumption and outcome to be empirically validated. Positive economics requires only that the model’s outcome(s) be correct...historical methods of rationalism, empiricism , and positive economics into a multistage process of validation. This validation method consists of (1

  6. Statistical downscaling of general circulation model output: A comparison of methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilby, R. L.; Wigley, T. M. L.; Conway, D.; Jones, P. D.; Hewitson, B. C.; Main, J.; Wilks, D. S.

    1998-11-01

    A range of different statistical downscaling models was calibrated using both observed and general circulation model (GCM) generated daily precipitation time series and intercompared. The GCM used was the U.K. Meteorological Office, Hadley Centre's coupled ocean/atmosphere model (HadCM2) forced by combined CO2 and sulfate aerosol changes. Climate model results for 1980-1999 (present) and 2080-2099 (future) were used, for six regions across the United States. The downscaling methods compared were different weather generator techniques (the standard "WGEN" method, and a method based on spell-length durations), two different methods using grid point vorticity data as an atmospheric predictor variable (B-Circ and C-Circ), and two variations of an artificial neural network (ANN) transfer function technique using circulation data and circulation plus temperature data as predictor variables. Comparisons of results were facilitated by using standard sets of observed and GCM-derived predictor variables and by using a standard suite of diagnostic statistics. Significant differences in the level of skill were found among the downscaling methods. The weather generation techniques, which are able to fit a number of daily precipitation statistics exactly, yielded the smallest differences between observed and simulated daily precipitation. The ANN methods performed poorly because of a failure to simulate wet-day occurrence statistics adequately. Changes in precipitation between the present and future scenarios produced by the statistical downscaling methods were generally smaller than those produced directly by the GCM. Changes in daily precipitation produced by the GCM between 1980-1999 and 2080-2099 were therefore judged not to be due primarily to changes in atmospheric circulation. In the light of these results and detailed model comparisons, suggestions for future research and model refinements are presented.

  7. A computational model of the fetal circulation to quantify blood redistribution in intrauterine growth restriction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia Garcia-Canadilla

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR due to placental insufficiency is associated with blood flow redistribution in order to maintain delivery of oxygenated blood to the brain. Given that, in the fetus the aortic isthmus (AoI is a key arterial connection between the cerebral and placental circulations, quantifying AoI blood flow has been proposed to assess this brain sparing effect in clinical practice. While numerous clinical studies have studied this parameter, fundamental understanding of its determinant factors and its quantitative relation with other aspects of haemodynamic remodeling has been limited. Computational models of the cardiovascular circulation have been proposed for exactly this purpose since they allow both for studying the contributions from isolated parameters as well as estimating properties that cannot be directly assessed from clinical measurements. Therefore, a computational model of the fetal circulation was developed, including the key elements related to fetal blood redistribution and using measured cardiac outflow profiles to allow personalization. The model was first calibrated using patient-specific Doppler data from a healthy fetus. Next, in order to understand the contributions of the main parameters determining blood redistribution, AoI and middle cerebral artery (MCA flow changes were studied by variation of cerebral and peripheral-placental resistances. Finally, to study how this affects an individual fetus, the model was fitted to three IUGR cases with different degrees of severity. In conclusion, the proposed computational model provides a good approximation to assess blood flow changes in the fetal circulation. The results support that while MCA flow is mainly determined by a fall in brain resistance, the AoI is influenced by a balance between increased peripheral-placental and decreased cerebral resistances. Personalizing the model allows for quantifying the balance between cerebral and peripheral

  8. A computational model of the fetal circulation to quantify blood redistribution in intrauterine growth restriction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Canadilla, Patricia; Rudenick, Paula A; Crispi, Fatima; Cruz-Lemini, Monica; Palau, Georgina; Camara, Oscar; Gratacos, Eduard; Bijnens, Bart H; Bijens, Bart H

    2014-06-01

    Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) due to placental insufficiency is associated with blood flow redistribution in order to maintain delivery of oxygenated blood to the brain. Given that, in the fetus the aortic isthmus (AoI) is a key arterial connection between the cerebral and placental circulations, quantifying AoI blood flow has been proposed to assess this brain sparing effect in clinical practice. While numerous clinical studies have studied this parameter, fundamental understanding of its determinant factors and its quantitative relation with other aspects of haemodynamic remodeling has been limited. Computational models of the cardiovascular circulation have been proposed for exactly this purpose since they allow both for studying the contributions from isolated parameters as well as estimating properties that cannot be directly assessed from clinical measurements. Therefore, a computational model of the fetal circulation was developed, including the key elements related to fetal blood redistribution and using measured cardiac outflow profiles to allow personalization. The model was first calibrated using patient-specific Doppler data from a healthy fetus. Next, in order to understand the contributions of the main parameters determining blood redistribution, AoI and middle cerebral artery (MCA) flow changes were studied by variation of cerebral and peripheral-placental resistances. Finally, to study how this affects an individual fetus, the model was fitted to three IUGR cases with different degrees of severity. In conclusion, the proposed computational model provides a good approximation to assess blood flow changes in the fetal circulation. The results support that while MCA flow is mainly determined by a fall in brain resistance, the AoI is influenced by a balance between increased peripheral-placental and decreased cerebral resistances. Personalizing the model allows for quantifying the balance between cerebral and peripheral-placental remodeling

  9. In vitro validation of an ultra-sensitive scanning fluorescence microscope for analysis of Circulating Tumor Cells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hillig, Thore; Nygaard, Ann-Britt; Nekiunaite, Laura

    2014-01-01

    Analysis of circulating tumor cells (CTC) holds promise of providing liquid biopsies from patients with cancer. However, current methods include enrichment procedures. We present a method (CytoTrack), where CTC from 7.5 mL of blood is stained, analyzed and counted by a scanning fluorescence...

  10. Causes and impacts of changes in the stratospheric meridional circulation in a chemistry-climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garny, Hella

    2011-05-13

    The stratospheric meridional circulation is projected to be subject to changes due to enhanced greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere. This study aims to diagnose and explain long-term changes in the stratospheric meridional circulation using the chemistry-climate model E39CA. The diagnosed strengthening of the circulation is found to be driven by increases in tropical sea surface temperatures which lead to a strengthening and upward shift of the subtropical jets. This enables enhanced vertical propagation of large scale waves into the lower stratosphere, and therefore stronger local wave forcing of the meridional circulation in the tropical lower stratosphere. The impact of changes in transport on the ozone layer is analysed using a newly developed method that allows the separation of the effects of transport and chemistry changes on ozone. It is found that future changes of mean stratospheric ozone concentrations are largely determined by changes in chemistry, while changes in transport of ozone play a minor role. (orig.)

  11. Two regimes of the Arctic's circulation from ocean models with ice and contaminants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proshutinsky, A Y; Johnson, M

    2001-01-01

    A two-dimensional barotropic, coupled, ocean-ice model with a space resolution of 55.5 km and driven by atmospheric forces, river run-off, and sea-level slope between the Pacific and the Arctic Oceans, has been used to simulate the vertically averaged currents and ice drift in the Arctic Ocean. Results from 43 years of numerical simulations of water and ice motions demonstrate that two wind-driven circulation regimes are possible in the Arctic, a cyclonic and an anti-cyclonic circulation. These two regimes appear to alternate at 5-7 year intervals with the 10-15 year period. It is important to pollution studies to understand which circulation regime prevails at any time. It is anticipated that 1995 is a year with a cyclonic regime, and during this cyclonic phase and possibly during past cyclonic regimes as well, pollutants may reach the Alaskan shelf. The regime shifts demonstrated in this paper are fundamentally important to understanding the Arctic's general circulation and particularly important for estimating pollution transport.

  12. Numerical model of the circulation and dispersion in the east Adriatic coastal waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beg Paklar, Gordana; Dzoic, Tomislav; Koracin, Darko; Matijevic, Slavica; Grbec, Branka; Ivatek-Sahdan, Stjepan

    2017-04-01

    The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) was implemented to reproduce physical properties of the area around submarine outlet Stobrec in the middle Adriatic coastal area. ROMS model run was forced with realistic atmospheric fields obtained from meteorological model Aladin, climatological river discharges, tides and dynamics of the surrounding area imposed at the open boundaries. Atmospheric forcing included momentum, heat and water fluxes calculated interactively from the Aladin surface fields during ROMS model simulations. Simulated fields from the Adriatic and shelf scale models were used to prescribe the initial and open boundary conditions for fine resolution coastal domain. Model results were compared with available CTD measurements and discussed in the light of the climatological circulation and thermohaline properties of the middle Adriatic coastal area. Variability in the circulation is related to the prevailing atmospheric conditions, changes in the hydrological conditions and water mass exchange at the open boundaries. Basic features of the coastal circulation are well reproduced by the ROMS model, as well as temperatures and salinities which are within corresponding seasonal intervals, although with lower stratification than measured ones. In order to reproduce dispersion of the passive tracer the ROMS model was coupled with Lagrangian dispersion model. Multiyear monitoring of the physical, chemical and biological parameters around the sewage outlet was used to assess the quality of the dispersion model results. Among measured parameters, redox potential of the surface sediment layer was selected to be compared with model results as its negative values are direct consequence of increased organic matter input that can be attributed to the sewage system inflow.

  13. Assimilation of TOPEX/POSEIDON Altimeter Data into a Global Ocean Circulation Model: Are the Results Any Good?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukumori, I.; Fu, L. L.; Chao, Y.

    1998-01-01

    The feasibility of assimilating satellite altimetry data into a global ocean general ocean general circulation model is studied. Three years of TOPEX/POSEIDON data is analyzed using a global, three-dimensional, nonlinear primitive equation model.

  14. Response of the equatorial Pacific to chlorophyll pigment in a mixed layer isopycnal ocean general circulation model

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nakamoto, S.; PrasannaKumar, S.; Oberhuber, J.M.; Ishizaka, J.; Muneyama, K.; Frouin, R.

    The influence of phytoplankton on the upper ocean dynamics and thermodynamics in the equatorial Pacific is investigated using an isopycnal ocean general circulation model (OPYC) coupled with a mixed layer model and remotely sensed chlorophyll...

  15. Transonic Drag Reduction Through Trailing-Edge Blowing on the FAST-MAC Circulation Control Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, David T.; Jones, Gregory S.; Milholen, William E., II; Goodliff, Scott L.

    2017-01-01

    A third wind tunnel test of the FAST-MAC circulation control semi-span model was completed in the National Transonic Facility at the NASA Langley Research Center where the model was configured for transonic testing of the cruise configuration with 0deg flap detection to determine the potential for transonic drag reduction with the circulation control blowing. The model allowed independent control of four circulation control plenums producing a high momentum jet from a blowing slot near the wing trailing edge that was directed over a 15% chord simple-hinged ap. Recent upgrades to transonic semi-span flow control testing at the NTF have demonstrated an improvement to overall data repeatability, particularly for the drag measurement, that allows for increased confidence in the data results. The static thrust generated by the blowing slot was removed from the wind-on data using force and moment balance data from wind-o thrust tares. This paper discusses the impact of the trailing-edge blowing to the transonic aerodynamics of the FAST-MAC model in the cruise configuration, where at flight Reynolds numbers, the thrust-removed corrected data showed that an overall drag reduction and increased aerodynamic efficiency was realized as a consequence of the blowing.

  16. A validated model of serum anti-mullerian hormone from conception to menopause.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas W Kelsey

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH is a product of growing ovarian follicles. The concentration of AMH in blood may also reflect the non-growing follicle (NGF population, i.e. the ovarian reserve, and be of value in predicting reproductive lifespan. A full description of AMH production up to the menopause has not been previously reported. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: By searching the published literature for AMH concentrations in healthy pre-menopausal females, and using our own data (combined n = 3,260 we have generated and robustly validated the first model of AMH concentration from conception to menopause. This model shows that 34% of the variation in AMH is due to age alone. We have shown that AMH peaks at age 24.5 years, followed by a decline to the menopause. We have also shown that there is a neonatal peak and a potential pre-pubertal peak. Our model allows us to generate normative data at all ages. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These data highlight key inflection points in ovarian follicle dynamics. This first validated model of circulating AMH in healthy females describes a transition period in early adulthood, after which AMH reflects the progressive loss of the NGF pool. The existence of a neonatal increase in gonadal activity is confirmed for females. An improved understanding of the relationship between circulating AMH and age will lead to more accurate assessment of ovarian reserve for the individual woman.

  17. Regional eddy vorticity transport and the equilibrium vorticity budgets of a numerical model ocean circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, D. E.; Holland, W. R.

    1981-01-01

    A mean vorticity budget analysis is presented of Holland's (1978) numerical ocean general circulation experiment. The stable budgets are compared with classical circulation theory to emphasize the ways in which the mesoscale motions of the model alter (or leave unaltered) classical vorticity balances. The basinwide meridional transports of vorticity by the mean flow and by the mesoscale flow in the mean are evaluated to establish the role(s) of the mesoscale in the larger scale equilibrium vorticity transports. The vorticity equation for this model fluid system is presented and the budget analysis method is described. Vorticity budgets over the selected regions and on a larger scale are given, and a summary of budget results is provided along with remarks about the utility of this type of analysis.

  18. Magnetic Cycles and Meridional Circulation in Global Models of Solar Convection

    CERN Document Server

    Miesch, Mark S; Browning, Matthew K; Brun, Allan Sacha; Toomre, Juri

    2010-01-01

    We review recent insights into the dynamics of the solar convection zone obtained from global numerical simulations, focusing on two recent developments in particular. The first is quasi-cyclic magnetic activity in a long-duration dynamo simulation. Although mean fields comprise only a few percent of the total magnetic energy they exhibit remarkable order, with multiple polarity reversals and systematic variability on time scales of 6-15 years. The second development concerns the maintenance of the meridional circulation. Recent high-resolution simulations have captured the subtle nonlinear dynamical balances with more fidelity than previous, more laminar models, yielding more coherent circulation patterns. These patterns are dominated by a single cell in each hemisphere, with poleward and equatorward flow in the upper and lower convection zone respectively. We briefly address the implications of and future of these modeling efforts.

  19. Regional eddy vorticity transport and the equilibrium vorticity budgets of a numerical model ocean circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, D. E.; Holland, W. R.

    1981-01-01

    A mean vorticity budget analysis is presented of Holland's (1978) numerical ocean general circulation experiment. The stable budgets are compared with classical circulation theory to emphasize the ways in which the mesoscale motions of the model alter (or leave unaltered) classical vorticity balances. The basinwide meridional transports of vorticity by the mean flow and by the mesoscale flow in the mean are evaluated to establish the role(s) of the mesoscale in the larger scale equilibrium vorticity transports. The vorticity equation for this model fluid system is presented and the budget analysis method is described. Vorticity budgets over the selected regions and on a larger scale are given, and a summary of budget results is provided along with remarks about the utility of this type of analysis.

  20. Crystal balls into the future: are global circulation and water balance models ready?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fekete, Balázs M.; Pisacane, Giovanna; Wisser, Dominik

    2016-10-01

    Variabilities and changes due to natural and anthropogenic causes in the water cycle always presented a challenge for water management planning. Practitioners traditionally coped with variabilities in the hydrological processes by assuming stationarity in the probability distributions and attempted to address non-stationarity by revising this probabilistic properties via continued hydro-climatological observations. Recently, this practice was questioned and more reliance on Global Circulation Models was put forward as an alternative for water management plannig. This paper takes a brief assessment of the state of Global Circulation Models (GCM) and their applications by presenting case studies over Global, European and African domains accompanied by literature examples. Our paper demonstrates core deficiencies in GCM based water resources assessments and articulates the need for improved Earth system monitoring that is essential not only for water managers, but to aid the improvements of GCMs in the future.

  1. A model intercomparison of changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration

    OpenAIRE

    Gregory, J; Dixon, K; Stouffer, R.; Weaver, A.; E. Driesschaert; Eby, M.; Fichefet, T.; Hasumi, H.; Hu, A.; J. Jungclaus; Kamenkovich, I.; A. Levermann; Montoya, M.; Murakami, S.; Nawrath , S.

    2005-01-01

    As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, integrations with a common design have been undertaken with eleven different climate models to compare the response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation ( THC) to time-dependent climate change caused by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Over 140 years, during which the CO2 concentration quadruples, the circulation strength declines gradually in all models, by between 10 and 50%. No model shows a rapid or complete collapse, desp...

  2. Use of Ocean Remote Sensing Data to Enhance Predictions with a Coupled General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rienecker, Michele M.

    1999-01-01

    Surface height, sea surface temperature and surface wind observations from satellites have given a detailed time sequence of the initiation and evolution of the 1997/98 El Nino. The data have beet complementary to the subsurface TAO moored data in their spatial resolution and extent. The impact of satellite observations on seasonal prediction in the tropical Pacific using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model will be presented.

  3. Numerical modelling of tidal circulation and studies on salinity distribution in Mandovi and Zuari estuaries

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Manoj, N.T.

    in shallow in- let/estuarine systems part I: Observations. Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science, 21: 185–205, 1985. C. Bell, J. M. Vassie, and P. L. Woodworth. POL/PSMSL Tidal Analysis Software Kit 2000. Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, CCMS Proudman... Particle Tracking Techniques Applied to Southern Australian Coastal Seas. Ph.D. thesis, De- partment of Applied Mathematics, The University of Adelaide, Australia., 2000. P. Hamilton. A numerical model of the vertical circulation of tidal estuaries and its...

  4. Turbulence, superrotation, and general circulation models of the atmosphere of Venus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izakov, M. N.

    2016-09-01

    The data obtained in space-borne measurements and the findings of turbulence theory show that turbulence, of both small and large scales, has a decisive influence on the structure and dynamics of the atmosphere of Venus. The small-scale turbulence generates anomalous convection, while large-scale turbulence induces the return spectral flux of energy that is the main element of the superrotation mechanism in the atmosphere. Ways for improving the general circulation model of the atmosphere of Venus are proposed.

  5. Spectral analysis of CFB data: Predictive models of Circulating Fluidized Bed combustors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gamwo, I.K.; Miller, A.; Gidaspow, D.

    1992-04-01

    The overall objective of this investigation is to develop experimentally verified models for circulating fluidized bed (CFB) combustors. Spectral analysis of CFB data obtained at Illinois Institute of Technology shows that the frequencies of pressure oscillations are less than 0.1 Hertz and that they increase with solids volume fraction to the usual value of one Hertz obtained in bubbling beds. These data are consistent with the kinetic theory interpretation of density wave propagation.

  6. Black carbon ageing in the Canadian Centre for Climate modelling and analysis atmospheric general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Croft

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Black carbon (BC particles in the atmosphere have important impacts on climate. The amount of BC in the atmosphere must be carefully quantified to allow evaluation of the climate effects of this type of aerosol. In this study, we present the treatment of BC aerosol in the developmental version of the 4th generation Canadian Centre for Climate modelling and analysis (CCCma atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM. The focus of this work is on the conversion of insoluble BC to soluble/mixed BC by physical and chemical ageing. Physical processes include the condensation of sulphuric and nitric acid onto the BC aerosol, and coagulation with more soluble aerosols such as sulphates and nitrates. Chemical processes that may age the BC aerosol include the oxidation of organic coatings by ozone. Four separate parameterizations of the ageing process are compared to a control simulation that assumes no ageing occurs. These simulations use 1 an exponential decay with a fixed 24h half-life, 2 a condensation and coagulation scheme, 3 an oxidative scheme, and 4 a linear combination of the latter two ageing treatments. Global BC burdens are 2.15, 0.15, 0.11, 0.21, and 0.11TgC for the control run, and four ageing schemes, respectively. The BC lifetimes are 98.1, 6.6, 5.0, 9.5, and 4.9 days, respectively. The sensitivity of modelled BC burdens, and concentrations to the factor of two uncertainty in the emissions inventory is shown to be greater than the sensitivity to the parameterization used to represent the BC ageing, except for the oxidation based parameterization. A computationally efficient parameterization that represents the processes of condensation, coagulation, and oxidation is shown to simulate BC ageing well in the CCCma AGCM. As opposed to the globally fixed ageing time scale, this treatment of BC ageing is responsive to varying atmospheric composition.

  7. MODELING STRATEGIES TO COMPUTE NATURAL CIRCULATION USING CFD IN A VHTR AFTER A LOFA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu-Hsin Tung; Richard W. Johnson; Ching-Chang Chieng; Yuh-Ming Ferng

    2012-11-01

    A prismatic gas-cooled very high temperature reactor (VHTR) is being developed under the next generation nuclear plant program (NGNP) of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy. In the design of the prismatic VHTR, hexagonal shaped graphite blocks are drilled to allow insertion of fuel pins, made of compacted TRISO fuel particles, and coolant channels for the helium coolant. One of the concerns for the reactor design is the effects of a loss of flow accident (LOFA) where the coolant circulators are lost for some reason, causing a loss of forced coolant flow through the core. In such an event, it is desired to know what happens to the (reduced) heat still being generated in the core and if it represents a problem for the fuel compacts, the graphite core or the reactor vessel (RV) walls. One of the mechanisms for the transport of heat out of the core is by the natural circulation of the coolant, which is still present. That is, how much heat may be transported by natural circulation through the core and upwards to the top of the upper plenum? It is beyond current capability for a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) analysis to perform a calculation on the whole RV with a sufficiently refined mesh to examine the full potential of natural circulation in the vessel. The present paper reports the investigation of several strategies to model the flow and heat transfer in the RV. It is found that it is necessary to employ representative geometries of the core to estimate the heat transfer. However, by taking advantage of global and local symmetries, a detailed estimate of the strength of the resulting natural circulation and the level of heat transfer to the top of the upper plenum is obtained.

  8. Ocean circulation model predicts high genetic structure observed in a long-lived pelagic developer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunday, J M; Popovic, I; Palen, W J; Foreman, M G G; Hart, M W

    2014-10-01

    Understanding the movement of genes and individuals across marine seascapes is a long-standing challenge in marine ecology and can inform our understanding of local adaptation, the persistence and movement of populations, and the spatial scale of effective management. Patterns of gene flow in the ocean are often inferred based on population genetic analyses coupled with knowledge of species' dispersive life histories. However, genetic structure is the result of time-integrated processes and may not capture present-day connectivity between populations. Here, we use a high-resolution oceanographic circulation model to predict larval dispersal along the complex coastline of western Canada that includes the transition between two well-studied zoogeographic provinces. We simulate dispersal in a benthic sea star with a 6-10 week pelagic larval phase and test predictions of this model against previously observed genetic structure including a strong phylogeographic break within the zoogeographical transition zone. We also test predictions with new genetic sampling in a site within the phylogeographic break. We find that the coupled genetic and circulation model predicts the high degree of genetic structure observed in this species, despite its long pelagic duration. High genetic structure on this complex coastline can thus be explained through ocean circulation patterns, which tend to retain passive larvae within 20-50 km of their parents, suggesting a necessity for close-knit design of Marine Protected Area networks. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. A heuristic simulation model of Lake Ontario circulation and mass balance transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, J.E.; Chalupnicki, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    The redistribution of suspended organisms and materials by large-scale currents is part of natural ecological processes in large aquatic systems but can contribute to ecosystem disruption when exotic elements are introduced into the system. Toxic compounds and planktonic organisms spend various lengths of time in suspension before settling to the bottom or otherwise being removed. We constructed a simple physical simulation model, including the influence of major tributaries, to qualitatively examine circulation patterns in Lake Ontario. We used a simple mass balance approach to estimate the relative water input to and export from each of 10 depth regime-specific compartments (nearshore vs. offshore) comprising Lake Ontario. Despite its simplicity, our model produced circulation patterns similar to those reported by more complex studies in the literature. A three-gyre pattern, with the classic large counterclockwise central lake circulation, and a simpler two-gyre system were both observed. These qualitative simulations indicate little offshore transport along the south shore, except near the mouths of the Niagara River and Oswego River. Complex flow structure was evident, particularly near the Niagara River mouth and in offshore waters of the eastern basin. Average Lake Ontario residence time is 8 years, but the fastest model pathway indicated potential transport of plankton through the lake in as little as 60 days. This simulation illustrates potential invasion pathways and provides rough estimates of planktonic larval dispersal or chemical transport among nearshore and offshore areas of Lake Ontario. ?? 2011 Taylor & Francis.

  10. Validation of Numerical Shallow Water Models for Tidal Lagoons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eliason, D.; Bourgeois, A.

    1999-11-01

    An analytical solution is presented for the case of a stratified, tidally forced lagoon. This solution, especially its energetics, is useful for the validation of numerical shallow water models under stratified, tidally forced conditions. The utility of the analytical solution for validation is demonstrated for a simple finite difference numerical model. A comparison is presented of the energetics of the numerical and analytical solutions in terms of the convergence of model results to the analytical solution with increasing spatial and temporal resolution.

  11. Model prediction of the operating behavior of a circulating fluidized bed boiler

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王勤辉; 骆仲泱; 倪明江; 岑可法

    2002-01-01

    An improved mathematical model for a circulating fluidized bed (CFB) boiler based on the model developed earlier by the authors was applied to simulate the operation of a 12 MW CFB boiler. The influences of the excess air ratio, primary air ratio, coal particle size distribution, coal properties (ash content and volatile content) and Ca/S ratio on the boiler operation were analyzed. The results showed that the model simulation may be applied to the optimum design and economic operation of the CFB boiler.

  12. Model prediction of the operating behavior of a circulating fluidized bed boiler

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王勤辉; 骆仲泱; 倪明江; 岑可法

    2002-01-01

    An improved mathematical model for a circulating fluidized bed (CFB) boiler baaed on the model developed earlier by the authors was applied to simulate the operation of a 12 MW CFB boiler.The influences of the excess air ratio, primary air ratio, coal particle size distribution, coal properties (ash content and volatile content) and Ca/S ratio on the boiler operation were analyzed. The results showed that the model simulation may be applied to the optimum design and economic operation of the CFB boiler.

  13. Fluid Flow Modeling of Arc Plasma and Bath Circulation in DC Electric Arc Furnace

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Feng-hua; JIN Zhi-jian; ZHU Zi-shu

    2006-01-01

    A mathematical model describing the flow field, heat transfer and the electromagnetic phenomenon in a DC electric arc furnace has been developed. First the governing equations in the arc plasma region are solved and the calculated results of heat transfer, current density and shear stresses on the anode surface are used as boundary conditions in a model of molten bath. Then a two-dimensional time-dependent model is used to describe the flow field and electromagnetic phenomenon in the molten bath. Moreover, the effect of bottom electrode diameter on the circulation of molten bath is studied.

  14. Using a {sigma}-coordinate numerical ocean model for simulating the circulation at Ormen Lange

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eliassen, Inge K.; Berntsen, Jarle

    2000-01-01

    This report describes a numerical model for the simulation of circulation at the Ormen Lange oil field. The model uses a topography following vertical coordinate and time split integration procedure. The model is implemented for a 28 km x 46 km area at Ormen Lange. The equations are given in detail and numerical experiments are discussed. The numerical studies investigate how the flow specified at open boundaries surrounding the Ormen Lange area may be interpolated into the interior domain taking into account the conservation laws that are believed to determine the flow and the local topography.

  15. Using virtual reality to validate system models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winter, V.L.; Caudell, T.P.

    1999-12-09

    To date most validation techniques are highly biased towards calculations involving symbolic representations of problems. These calculations are either formal (in the case of consistency and completeness checks), or informal in the case of code inspections. The authors believe that an essential type of evidence of the correctness of the formalization process must be provided by (i.e., must originate from) human-based calculation. They further believe that human calculation can by significantly amplified by shifting from symbolic representations to graphical representations. This paper describes their preliminary efforts in realizing such a representational shift.

  16. Evaluation of water vapor distribution in general circulation models using satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soden, Brian J.; Bretherton, Francis P.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a comparison of the water vapor distribution obtained from two general circulation models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM), with satellite observations of total precipitable water (TPW) from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and upper tropospheric relative humidity (UTH) from GOES. Overall, both models are successful in capturing the primary features of the observed water vapor distribution and its seasonal variation. For the ECMWF model, however, a systematic moist bias in TPW is noted over well-known stratocumulus regions in the eastern subtropical oceans. Comparison with radiosonde profiles suggests that this problem is attributable to difficulties in modeling the shallowness of the boundary layer and large vertical water vapor gradients which characterize these regions. In comparison, the CCM is more successful in capturing the low values of TPW in the stratocumulus regions, although it tends to exhibit a dry bias over the eastern half of the subtropical oceans and a corresponding moist bias in the western half. The CCM also significantly overestimates the daily variability of the moisture fields in convective regions, suggesting a problem in simulating the temporal nature of moisture transport by deep convection. Comparison of the monthly mean UTH distribution indicates generally larger discrepancies than were noted for TPW owing to the greater influence of large-scale dynamical processes in determining the distribution of UTH. In particular, the ECMWF model exhibits a distinct dry bias along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and a moist bias over the subtropical descending branches of the Hadley cell, suggesting an underprediction in the strength of the Hadley circulation. The CCM, on the other hand, demonstrates greater discrepancies in UTH than are observed for the ECMWF model, but none that are as

  17. Clouds and the extratropical circulation response to global warming in a hierarchy of global atmosphere models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, Aiko

    2017-04-01

    Climate models project that global warming will lead to substantial changes in the position of the extratropical jet streams. Yet, many quantitative aspects of such jet stream changes remain uncertain among models, and recent work has indicated a potentially important role of cloud radiative interactions. Here, I will investigate how cloud-radiative changes impact the extratropical circulation response using a hierarchy of global atmosphere models. I will first focus on aquaplanet setups with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), which reproduce the model spread found in realistic simulations with interactive SSTs. Simulations with two CMIP5 models MPI-ESM and IPSL-CM5A and prescribed clouds show that half of the circulation response can be attributed to cloud changes. The rise of tropical high-level clouds and the upward and poleward movement of midlatitude high-level clouds lead to poleward jet shifts. High-latitude low-level cloud changes shift the jet poleward in one model but not in the other. The impact of clouds on the jet operates via the atmospheric radiative forcing that is created by the cloud changes and is qualitatively reproduced in a dry Held-Suarez model, although the latter is too sensitive because of its simplified treatment of diabatic processes. I will then show that the aquaplanet results also hold when the models are used in a realistic setup that includes continents and seasonality. Finally, I will juxtapose these prescribed-SST simulations with interactive-SST simulations. This will allow for a comparison of the circulation impacts of atmospheric and surface cloud-radiative changes.

  18. Optimal Geoid Modelling to determine the Mean Ocean Circulation - Project Overview and early Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fecher, Thomas; Knudsen, Per; Bettadpur, Srinivas; Gruber, Thomas; Maximenko, Nikolai; Pie, Nadege; Siegismund, Frank; Stammer, Detlef

    2017-04-01

    The ESA project GOCE-OGMOC (Optimal Geoid Modelling based on GOCE and GRACE third-party mission data and merging with altimetric sea surface data to optimally determine Ocean Circulation) examines the influence of the satellite missions GRACE and in particular GOCE in ocean modelling applications. The project goal is an improved processing of satellite and ground data for the preparation and combination of gravity and altimetry data on the way to an optimal MDT solution. Explicitly, the two main objectives are (i) to enhance the GRACE error modelling and optimally combine GOCE and GRACE [and optionally terrestrial/altimetric data] and (ii) to integrate the optimal Earth gravity field model with MSS and drifter information to derive a state-of-the art MDT including an error assessment. The main work packages referring to (i) are the characterization of geoid model errors, the identification of GRACE error sources, the revision of GRACE error models, the optimization of weighting schemes for the participating data sets and finally the estimation of an optimally combined gravity field model. In this context, also the leakage of terrestrial data into coastal regions shall be investigated, as leakage is not only a problem for the gravity field model itself, but is also mirrored in a derived MDT solution. Related to (ii) the tasks are the revision of MSS error covariances, the assessment of the mean circulation using drifter data sets and the computation of an optimal geodetic MDT as well as a so called state-of-the-art MDT, which combines the geodetic MDT with drifter mean circulation data. This paper presents an overview over the project results with focus on the geodetic results part.

  19. Vertical heat flux in the ocean: Estimates from observations and from a coupled general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummins, Patrick F.; Masson, Diane; Saenko, Oleg A.

    2016-06-01

    The net heat uptake by the ocean in a changing climate involves small imbalances between the advective and diffusive processes that transport heat vertically. Generally, it is necessary to rely on global climate models to study these processes in detail. In the present study, it is shown that a key component of the vertical heat flux, namely that associated with the large-scale mean vertical circulation, can be diagnosed over extra-tropical regions from global observational data sets. This component is estimated based on the vertical velocity obtained from the geostrophic vorticity balance, combined with estimates of absolute geostrophic flow. Results are compared with the output of a non-eddy resolving, coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Reasonable agreement is found in the latitudinal distribution of the vertical heat flux, as well as in the area-integrated flux below about 250 m depth. The correspondence with the coupled model deteriorates sharply at depths shallower than 250 m due to the omission of equatorial regions from the calculation. The vertical heat flux due to the mean circulation is found to be dominated globally by the downward contribution from the Southern Hemisphere, in particular the Southern Ocean. This is driven by the Ekman vertical velocity which induces an upward transport of seawater that is cold relative to the horizontal average at a given depth. The results indicate that the dominant characteristics of the vertical transport of heat due to the mean circulation can be inferred from simple linear vorticity dynamics over much of the ocean.

  20. The international coordination of climate model validation and intercomparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gates, W.L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. Livermore, CA (United States). Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison

    1995-12-31

    Climate modeling, whereby basic physical laws are used to integrate the physics and dynamics of climate into a consistent system, plays a key role in climate research and is the medium through. Depending upon the portion(s) of the climate system being considered, climate models range from those concerned only with the equilibrium globally-averaged surface temperature to those depicting the 3-dimensional time-dependent evolution of the coupled atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface. Here only the latter class of models are considered, which are commonly known as general circulation models (or GCMs). (author)

  1. Extending Model Checking to Object Process Validation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rein, van H.

    2002-01-01

    Object-oriented techniques allow the gathering and modelling of system requirements in terms of an application area. The expression of data and process models at that level is a great asset in communication with non-technical people in that area, but it does not necessarily lead to consistent models

  2. A practical approach to validating a PD model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Medema, Lydian; Koning, Ruud H.; Lensink, Robert; Medema, M.

    2009-01-01

    The capital adequacy framework Basel II aims to promote the adoption of stronger risk management practices by the banking industry. The implementation makes validation of credit risk models more important. Lenders therefore need a validation methodology to convince their supervisors that their credi

  3. A Practical Approach to Validating a PD Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Medema, L.; Koning, de R.; Lensink, B.W.

    2009-01-01

    The capital adequacy framework Basel II aims to promote the adoption of stronger risk management practices by the banking industry. The implementation makes validation of credit risk models more important. Lenders therefore need a validation methodology to convince their supervisors that their credi

  4. Cross-validation criteria for SETAR model selection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Gooijer, J.G.

    2001-01-01

    Three cross-validation criteria, denoted C, C_c, and C_u are proposed for selecting the orders of a self-exciting threshold autoregressive SETAR) model when both the delay and the threshold value are unknown. The derivatioon of C is within a natural cross-validation framework. The crietion C_c is si

  5. Ensuring the Validity of the Micro Foundation in DSGE Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Martin Møller

    The presence of i) stochastic trends, ii) deterministic trends, and/or iii) stochastic volatil- ity in DSGE models may imply that the agents' objective functions attain infinite values. We say that such models do not have a valid micro foundation. The paper derives sufficient condi- tions which...... ensure that the objective functions of the households and the firms are finite even when various trends and stochastic volatility are included in a standard DSGE model. Based on these conditions we test the validity of the micro foundation in six DSGE models from the literature. The models of Justiniano...... in these models remains to be established....

  6. The spread amongst ENSEMBLES regional scenarios: regional climate models, driving general circulation models and interannual variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deque, M.; Somot, S. [Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, CNRS/GAME, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Sanchez-Gomez, E. [Cerfacs/CNRS, SUC URA1875, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Goodess, C.M. [University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich (United Kingdom); Jacob, D. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Lenderink, G. [KNMI, Postbus 201, De Bilt (Netherlands); Christensen, O.B. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen Oe (Denmark)

    2012-03-15

    Various combinations of thirteen regional climate models (RCM) and six general circulation models (GCM) were used in FP6-ENSEMBLES. The response to the SRES-A1B greenhouse gas concentration scenario over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2021-2050 and the 1961-1990 means can be viewed as an expected value about which various uncertainties exist. Uncertainties are measured here by variance explained for temperature and precipitation changes over eight European sub-areas. Three sources of uncertainty can be evaluated from the ENSEMBLES database. Sampling uncertainty is due to the fact that the model climate is estimated as an average over a finite number of years (30) despite a non-negligible interannual variability. Regional model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs use different techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid effects. Global model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs have been driven by different GCMs. Two methods are presented to fill the many empty cells of the ENSEMBLES RCM x GCM matrix. The first one is based on the same approach as in FP5-PRUDENCE. The second one uses the concept of weather regimes to attempt to separate the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The variance of the climate response is analyzed with respect to the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The two filling methods agree that the main contributor to the spread is the choice of the GCM, except for summer precipitation where the choice of the RCM dominates the uncertainty. Of course the implication of the GCM to the spread varies with the region, being maximum in the South-western part of Europe, whereas the continental parts are more sensitive to the choice of the RCM. The third cause of spread is systematically the interannual variability. The total uncertainty about temperature is not large enough to mask the 2021-2050 response which shows a similar pattern to the one obtained for 2071-2100 in PRUDENCE. The uncertainty

  7. An Improved Heat Budget Estimation Including Bottom Effects for General Ocean Circulation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carder, Kendall; Warrior, Hari; Otis, Daniel; Chen, R. F.

    2001-01-01

    This paper studies the effects of the underwater light field on heat-budget calculations of general ocean circulation models for shallow waters. The presence of a bottom significantly alters the estimated heat budget in shallow waters, which affects the corresponding thermal stratification and hence modifies the circulation. Based on the data collected during the COBOP field experiment near the Bahamas, we have used a one-dimensional turbulence closure model to show the influence of the bottom reflection and absorption on the sea surface temperature field. The water depth has an almost one-to-one correlation with the temperature rise. Effects of varying the bottom albedo by replacing the sea grass bed with a coral sand bottom, also has an appreciable effect on the heat budget of the shallow regions. We believe that the differences in the heat budget for the shallow areas will have an influence on the local circulation processes and especially on the evaporative and long-wave heat losses for these areas. The ultimate effects on humidity and cloudiness of the region are expected to be significant as well.

  8. Numerical Modelling Approaches for Assessing Improvements to the Flow Circulation in a Small Lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng He

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Kamaniskeg Lake is a long, narrow, and deep small lake located in the northern part of Ontario, Canada. The goals of this paper were to examine various options to improve the water quality in the northern part of the lake by altering the local hydraulic flow conditions. Towards this end, a preliminary screening suggested that the flow circulation could be increased around a central island (Mask Island in the northern part of the lake by opening up an existing causeway connecting the mainland and central island. Three-dimensional (3D hydraulic and transport models were adopted in this paper to investigate the hydraulic conditions under various wind forces and causeway structures. The modelling results show that opening the causeway in a few places is unlikely to generate a large flow circulation around the central island. Full circulation only appears to be possible if the causeway is fully removed and a strong wind blows in a favourable direction. The possible reasons for existing water quality variations at the intake of a local WTP (water treatment plant are also explored in the paper.

  9. Comparison between experimental data and numerical modeling for the natural circulation phenomenon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sabundjian, Gaiane; Andrade, Delvonei A.; Umbehaun, Pedro E.; Torres, Walmir M.; Macedo, Luiz A.; Conti, Thadeu N.; Mesquita, Roberto N.; Massotti, Paulo H.F.; Penha, Rosani M.L.; Silva Filho, Mauro F.; Melo, Gabriel R. [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)], e-mail: gdjian@ipen.br, e-mail: delvonei@ig.com.br, e-mail: umbehaun@ipen.br, e-mail: wmtorres@ipen.br, e-mail: tnconti@ipen.br, e-mail: rnavarro@ipen.br, e-mail: lamacedo@ipen.br, e-mail: pmasotti@ipen.br, e-mail: rmpenha@ipen.br, e-mail: mauromfs@uol.com; Braz Filho, Francisco A.; Borges, Eduardo M. [Instituto de Estudos Avancados (IEAv), Sao Jose dos Campos, SP (Brazil)], e-mail: eduardo@ieav.cta.br, e-mail: fbraz@ieav.cta.br

    2009-07-01

    There is a crescent interest in the scientific community in the study of natural circulation phenomenon. New generation of compact nuclear reactors uses the natural circulation of the fluid as a system of cooling and of residual heat removal in case of accident or shutdown. The objective of this paper is to present a study through the comparison of experimental data and numerical simulation for the natural circulation phenomenon in one and two-phase flow regime. An experimental circuit built with glass tubes is used for the experiments. Thus, it allows the thermal hydraulic phenomena visualization. There is an electric heater as the heat source, a heat exchanger as the heat sink and an expansion tank to accommodate fluid density excursions. The circuit instrumentation consists of thermocouples and pressure meters to better keep track of the flow and heat transfer phenomena. Instrumentation data acquisition is performed through a computer interface developed with LABVIEW. Previous comparisons were presented. However, in this work pressure transducers were mounted in the heat source outlet and in the expansion tank inlet to allow fluid level variation measures. Numerical modeling and simulation is done with the thermal hydraulic code RELAP5, which is widely used for this purpose. This simulation is capable to reproduce pressure variations, expansion tank level and temperatures measured along the circuit. The observed reverse flow in the circuit is also well represented by model. Comparison between experimental and numerical simulation is presented in this work and showed to be in good agreement. (author)

  10. Variational data assimilation system with nesting model for high resolution ocean circulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ishikawa, Yoichi; Igarashi, Hiromichi; Hiyoshi, Yoshimasa; Sasaki, Yuji; Wakamatsu, Tsuyoshi; Awaji, Toshiyuki [Center for Earth Information Science and Technology, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-Ku, Yokohama 236-0001 (Japan); In, Teiji [Japan Marine Science Foundation, 4-24, Minato-cho, Mutsu, Aomori, 035-0064 (Japan); Nakada, Satoshi [Graduate School of Maritime Science, Kobe University, 5-1-1, Fukae-minamimachi, Higashinada-Ku, Kobe, 658-0022 (Japan); Nishina, Kei, E-mail: ishikaway@jamstec.go.jp [Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University, Kitashirakawaoiwake-cho, Sakyo-Ku, Kyoto, 606-8502 (Japan)

    2015-10-15

    To obtain the high-resolution analysis fields for ocean circulation, a new incremental approach is developed using a four-dimensional variational data assimilation system with nesting models. The results show that there are substantial biases when using a classical method combined with data assimilation and downscaling, caused by different dynamics resulting from the different resolutions of the models used within the nesting models. However, a remarkable reduction in biases of the low-resolution model relative to the high-resolution model was observed using our new approach in narrow strait regions, such as the Tsushima and Tsugaru straits, where the difference in the dynamics represented by the high- and low-resolution models is substantial. In addition, error reductions are demonstrated in the downstream region of these narrow channels associated with the propagation of information through the model dynamics. (paper)

  11. Amendment to Validated dynamic flow model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Torben

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of WP2 is to establish flow models relating the wind speed at turbines in a farm. Until now, active control of power reference has not been included in these models as only data with standard operation has been available. In this report the first data series with power reference...... excitations from the Thanet farm are used for trying to update some of the models discussed in D2.5. Because of very limited amount of data only simple dynamic transfer function models can be obtained. The three obtained data series are somewhat different. Only the first data set seems to have the front...... turbine in undisturbed flow. For this data set both the multiplicative model and in particular the simple first order transfer function model can predict the down wind wind speed from upwind wind speed and loading....

  12. Effect of slip on circulation inside a droplet

    CERN Document Server

    Thalakkottor, Joseph J

    2013-01-01

    Internal recirculation in a moving droplet plays an important role in several droplet-based microfluidic devices as it enhances mixing, chemical reaction and heat transfer. The occurrence of fluid slip at the wall, which becomes prominent at high shear rates and lower length scales, results in a significant change in droplet circulation. Using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, the presence of circulation in droplets is demonstrated and quantified. Circulation is shown to vary inversely with slip length, which is a measure of interface wettability. A simple circulation model is established that captures the effect of slip on droplet circulation. Scaling parameters for circulation and slip length are identified from the circulation model which leads to the collapse of data for droplets with varying aspect ratio (AR) and slip length. The model is validated using continuum and MD simulations and is shown to be accurate for droplets with high AR.

  13. Gear Windage Modeling Progress - Experimental Validation Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunz, Rob; Handschuh, Robert F.

    2008-01-01

    In the Subsonics Rotary Wing (SRW) Project being funded for propulsion work at NASA Glenn Research Center, performance of the propulsion system is of high importance. In current rotorcraft drive systems many gearing components operate at high rotational speed (pitch line velocity > 24000 ft/ min). In our testing of high speed helical gear trains at NASA Glenn we have found that the work done on the air - oil mist within the gearbox can become a significant part of the power loss of the system. This loss mechanism is referred to as windage. The effort described in this presentation is to try to understand the variables that affect windage, develop a good experimental data base to validate, the analytical project being conducted at Penn State University by Dr. Rob Kunz under a NASA SRW NRA. The presentation provides an update to the status of these efforts.

  14. Validity of microgravity simulation models on earth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Regnard, J; Heer, M; Drummer, C

    2001-01-01

    Many studies have used water immersion and head-down bed rest as experimental models to simulate responses to microgravity. However, some data collected during space missions are at variance or in contrast with observations collected from experimental models. These discrepancies could reflect inc...

  15. EMMD-Prony approach for dynamic validation of simulation models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ruiyang Bai

    2015-01-01

    Model validation and updating is critical to model credi-bility growth. In order to assess model credibility quantitatively and locate model error precisely, a new dynamic validation method based on extremum field mean mode decomposition (EMMD) and the Prony method is proposed in this paper. Firstly, complex dy-namic responses from models and real systems are processed into stationary components by EMMD. These components always have definite physical meanings which can be the evidence about rough model error location. Secondly, the Prony method is applied to identify the features of each EMMD component. Amplitude si-milarity, frequency similarity, damping similarity and phase simi-larity are defined to describe the similarity of dynamic responses. Then quantitative validation metrics are obtained based on the improved entropy weight and energy proportion. Precise model error location is realized based on the physical meanings of these features. The application of this method in aircraft control er design provides evidence about its feasibility and usability.

  16. Uncertainty Quantification and Validation for RANS Turbulence Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, Todd; Moser, Robert

    2011-11-01

    Uncertainty quantification and validation procedures for RANS turbulence models are developed and applied. The procedures used here rely on a Bayesian view of probability. In particular, the uncertainty quantification methodology requires stochastic model development, model calibration, and model comparison, all of which are pursued using tools from Bayesian statistics. Model validation is also pursued in a probabilistic framework. The ideas and processes are demonstrated on a channel flow example. Specifically, a set of RANS models--including Baldwin-Lomax, Spalart-Allmaras, k- ɛ, k- ω, and v2- f--and uncertainty representations are analyzed using DNS data for fully-developed channel flow. Predictions of various quantities of interest and the validity (or invalidity) of the various models for making those predictions will be examined. This work is supported by the Department of Energy [National Nuclear Security Administration] under Award Number [DE-FC52-08NA28615].

  17. Combining Satellite Ocean Color Imagery and Circulation Modeling to Forecast Bio-Optical Properties: Comparison of Models and Advection Schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-10-01

    Remote sensing of ocean color provides synoptic surface ocean bio -optical properties but is limited to real-time or climatological applications. Many...this, we couple satellite imagery with numerical circulation models to provide short-term (24-48 hr) forecasts of bio -optical properties. These are...physical processes control the bio -optical distribution patterns. We compare optical forecast results from three Navy models and two advection

  18. Validation of a national hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, H. K.; Booker, D. J.; Cattoën, C.

    2016-10-01

    Nationwide predictions of flow time-series are valuable for development of policies relating to environmental flows, calculating reliability of supply to water users, or assessing risk of floods or droughts. This breadth of model utility is possible because various hydrological signatures can be derived from simulated flow time-series. However, producing national hydrological simulations can be challenging due to strong environmental diversity across catchments and a lack of data available to aid model parameterisation. A comprehensive and consistent suite of test procedures to quantify spatial and temporal patterns in performance across various parts of the hydrograph is described and applied to quantify the performance of an uncalibrated national rainfall-runoff model of New Zealand. Flow time-series observed at 485 gauging stations were used to calculate Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and percent bias when simulating between-site differences in daily series, between-year differences in annual series, and between-site differences in hydrological signatures. The procedures were used to assess the benefit of applying a correction to the modelled flow duration curve based on an independent statistical analysis. They were used to aid understanding of climatological, hydrological and model-based causes of differences in predictive performance by assessing multiple hypotheses that describe where and when the model was expected to perform best. As the procedures produce quantitative measures of performance, they provide an objective basis for model assessment that could be applied when comparing observed daily flow series with competing simulated flow series from any region-wide or nationwide hydrological model. Model performance varied in space and time with better scores in larger and medium-wet catchments, and in catchments with smaller seasonal variations. Surprisingly, model performance was not sensitive to aquifer fraction or rain gauge density.

  19. Design and Performance Analysis of a Massively Parallel Atmospheric General Circulation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel S. Schaffer

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available In the 1990's, computer manufacturers are increasingly turning to the development of parallel processor machines to meet the high performance needs of their customers. Simultaneously, atmospheric scientists studying weather and climate phenomena ranging from hurricanes to El Niño to global warming require increasingly fine resolution models. Here, implementation of a parallel atmospheric general circulation model (GCM which exploits the power of massively parallel machines is described. Using the horizontal data domain decomposition methodology, this FORTRAN 90 model is able to integrate a 0.6° longitude by 0.5° latitude problem at a rate of 19 Gigaflops on 512 processors of a Cray T3E 600; corresponding to 280 seconds of wall-clock time per simulated model day. At this resolution, the model has 64 times as many degrees of freedom and performs 400 times as many floating point operations per simulated day as the model it replaces.

  20. Toward a validation process for model based safety analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Adeline, Romain; Cardoso, Janette; Darfeuil, Pierre; Humbert, Sophie; Seguin, Christel

    2010-01-01

    Today, Model Based processes become more and more widespread to achieve the analysis of a system. However, there is no formal testing approach to ensure that the formal model is compliant with the real system. In the paper, we choose to study AltaRica model. We present a general process to well construct and validate an AltaRica formal model. The focus is made on this validation phase, i.e. verifying the compliance between the model and the real system. For it, the proposed process recommends...

  1. The influence of the Bering Strait on the circulation in a coarse resolution global ocean model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reason, C. J. C.; Power, S. B.

    1994-05-01

    An ocean general circulation model of global domain, full continental geometry and bottom topography, is used to study the influence of the Bering Strait on the general circulation by comparing equilibrium solutions obtained with and without a land-bridge between Siberia and Alaska. The model is integrated with restoring boundary conditions (BC) on temperature and salinity, and later, with mixed BC in which a restoring BC on temperature is maintained but a specified flux condition on salinity is imposed. In both cases, the effect of the Bering Strait is to allow a flow of about 1.25 1.5 Sv from the North Pacific to the Arctic Ocean and, ultimately, back to the North Pacific along the western boundary current regions of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. When a restoring BC on salinity is used, the overturning associated with North Atlantic Deep Water and Antarctic Intermediate Water formation are increased if the Bering Strait is present in the model geometry. The result of switching to a specified flux BC on salinity is to cause a transition in the THC in which the overturning associated with North Atlantic Deep Water formation increases from about 12 Sv to about 22 Sv. This transition occurs in an essentially smooth fashion with no significant variability and is about 12% smaller in magnitude if the Bering Strait is present in the model geometry. Because the Bering Strait appears to exert some influence on the general circulation and the formation of deep water masses, it is recommended that this Strait be included in the geometry of similar resolution models designed to study the deep ocean and potential changes in climate.

  2. Primary Reasoning behind the Double ITCZ Phenomenon in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李江龙; 张学洪; 俞永强; 戴福山

    2004-01-01

    This paper investigates the processes behind the double ITCZ phenomenon, a common problem in Coupled ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Models (CGCMs), using a CGCM-FGCM-0 (Flexible General Circulation Model, version 0). The double ITCZ mode develops rapidly during the first two years of the integration and becomes a perennial phenomenon afterwards in the model. By way of Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) for SST, sea surface pressure, and sea surface wind, some air-sea interactions are analyzed. These interactions prompt the anomalous signals that appear at the beginning of the coupling to develop rapidly. There are two possible reasons, proved by sensitivity experiments: (1) the overestimated east-west gradient of SST in the equatorial Pacific in the ocean spin-up process, and (2) the underestimated amount of low-level stratus over the Peruvian coast in CCM3 (the Community Climate Model, Version Three). The overestimated east-west gradient of SST brings the anomalous equatorial easterly. The anomalous easterly, affected by the Coriolis force in the Southern Hemisphere, turns into an anomalous westerly in a broad area south of the equator and is enhanced by atmospheric anomalous circulation due to the underestimated amount of low-level stratus over the Peruvian coast simulated by CCM3. The anomalous westerly leads to anomalous warm advection that makes the SST warm in the southeast Pacific.The double ITCZ phenomenon in the CGCM is a result of a series of nonlocal and nonlinear adjustment processes in the coupled system, which can be traced to the uncoupled models, oceanic component, and atmospheric component. The zonal gradient of the equatorial SST is too large in the ocean component and the amount of low-level stratus over the Peruvian coast is too low in the atmosphere component.

  3. Validation of Modeling Flow Approaching Navigation Locks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    instrumentation, direction vernier . ........................................................................ 8  Figure 11. Plan A lock approach, upstream approach...13-9 8 Figure 9. Tools and instrumentation, bracket attached to rail. Figure 10. Tools and instrumentation, direction vernier . Numerical model

  4. Validating predictions from climate envelope models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watling, J.; Bucklin, D.; Speroterra, C.; Brandt, L.; Cabal, C.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2013-01-01

    Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species’ distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967–1971 (t1) and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998–2002 (t2). Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences) was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences) was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on species.

  5. General circulation modeling of the thermosphere-ionosphere during a geomagnetic storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yiǧit, Erdal; Immel, Thomas; Ridley, Aaron; Frey, Harald U.; Moldwin, Mark

    2016-07-01

    Using a three-dimensional general circulation model (GCM) of the upper atmosphere, we investigate the response of the thermosphere-ionosphere system to the August 2011 major geomagnetic storm. The GCM is driven by measured storm-time input data of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF), solar activity, and auroral activity. Simulations for quiet steady conditions over the same period are performed as well in order to assess the response of the neutral and plasma parameters to the storm. During the storm, the high-latitude mean ion flows are enhanced by up to ~150%. Overall, the global mean neutral temperature increases by up to 15%, while the maximum thermal response is higher in the winter Southern Hemisphere at high-latitudes than the summer Northern Hemisphere: 40% vs. 20% increase in high-latitude mean temperature, respectively. The global mean Joule heating of the neutral atmosphere increases by more than a factor of three. There are distinct hemispheric differences in the magnitude and morphology of the horizontal ion flows and thermospheric circulation during the different phases of the storm. The thermospheric circulation demonstrates the largest amount of hemispheric differences during the later stages of the storm. Dynamical diagnostics show that advective forcing contributes to hemispheric differences.

  6. Atmospheric circulation in regional climate models over Central Europe: links to surface air temperature and the influence of driving data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plavcova, Eva [Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague 4 (Czech Republic); Technical University, Department of Applied Mathematics, Liberec (Czech Republic); Charles University, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Prague (Czech Republic); Kysely, Jan [Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague 4 (Czech Republic); Technical University, Department of Applied Mathematics, Liberec (Czech Republic)

    2012-10-15

    The study examines simulation of atmospheric circulation, represented by circulation indices (flow direction, strength and vorticity), and links between circulation and daily surface air temperatures in regional climate models (RCMs) over Central Europe. We explore control simulations of five high-resolution RCMs from the ENSEMBLES project driven by re-analysis (ERA-40) and the same global climate model (ECHAM5 GCM) plus of one RCM (RCA) driven by different GCMs. The aims are to (1) identify errors in RCM-simulated distributions of circulation indices in individual seasons, (2) identify errors in simulated temperatures under particular circulation indices, and (3) compare performance of individual RCMs with respect to the driving data. Although most of the RCMs qualitatively reflect observed distributions of the airflow indices, each produces distributions significantly different from the observations. General biases include overestimation of the frequency of strong flow days and of strong cyclonic vorticity. Some circulation biases obviously propagate from the driving data. ECHAM5 and all simulations driven by ECHAM5 underestimate frequency of easterly flow, mainly in summer. Except for HIRHAM, however, all RCMs driven by ECHAM5 improve on the driving GCM in simulating atmospheric circulation. The influence on circulation characteristics in the nested RCM differs between GCMs, as demonstrated in a set of RCA simulations with different driving data. The driving data control on circulation in RCA is particularly weak for the BCM GCM, in which case RCA substantially modifies (but does not improve) the circulation from the driving data in both winter and summer. Those RCMs with the most distorted atmospheric circulation are HIRHAM driven by ECHAM5 and RCA driven by BCM. Relatively strong relationships between circulation indices and surface air temperatures were found in the observed data for Central Europe. The links differ by season and are usually stronger for

  7. Numerical modeling of the thermoelectric cooler with a complementary equation for heat circulation in air gaps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, En; Wu, Xiaojie; Yu, Yuesen; Xiu, Junrui

    2017-03-01

    In this paper, a numerical model is developed by combining thermodynamics with heat transfer theory. Taking inner and external multi-irreversibility into account, it is with a complementary equation for heat circulation in air gaps of a steady cooling system with commercial thermoelectric modules operating in refrigeration mode. With two modes concerned, the equation presents the heat flowing through air gaps which forms heat circulations between both sides of thermoelectric coolers (TECs). In numerical modelling, a TEC is separated as two temperature controlled constant heat flux reservoirs in a thermal resistance network. In order to obtain the parameter values, an experimental apparatus with a commercial thermoelectric cooler was built to characterize the performance of a TEC with heat source and sink assembly. At constant power dissipation, steady temperatures of heat source and both sides of the thermoelectric cooler were compared with those in a standard numerical model. The method displayed that the relationship between Φf and the ratio Φ_{c}'/Φ_{c} was linear as expected. Then, for verifying the accuracy of proposed numerical model, the data in another system were recorded. It is evident that the experimental results are in good agreement with simulation(proposed model) data at different heat transfer rates. The error is small and mainly results from the instabilities of thermal resistances with temperature change and heat flux, heat loss of the device vertical surfaces and measurements.

  8. Modelling the ocean circulation on the West Greenland shelf with special emphasis on northern shrimp recruitment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hvid Ribergaard, Mads; Anker Pedersen, Søren; Ådlandsvik, Bjørn; Kliem, Nicolai

    2004-08-01

    The ocean circulation on the West Greenland shelf are modelled using a 3D finite element circulation model forced by wind data from the Danish Meteorological Institute-High-Resolution Limited Area Model operational atmospheric model for the Greenland area and tides at the open boundary. Residual anticyclonic eddies are generated around the shelf banks north of 64∘N and areas of permanent upwelling are located west of the shelf banks. The potential distances of shrimp larvae transport from larval release to settling at the bottom were studied, using a particle-tracking model. Particles released (hatched shrimp larvae) south of 62∘N had a probability of about 2% of being lost to the Canadian Shelf, whereas for particles released north of 64∘N almost none were lost from the West Greenland Shelf. The particles tended to have long retention times at the shelf banks caused by the residual anticyclonic eddies. The retention times increased slightly for particles tracked at depths from 80 to 30 m with minor implications for potential transport distances of larval shrimp and plankton.

  9. Validation of Model Forecasts of the Ambient Solar Wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macneice, P. J.; Hesse, M.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Rastaetter, L.; Taktakishvili, A.

    2009-01-01

    Independent and automated validation is a vital step in the progression of models from the research community into operational forecasting use. In this paper we describe a program in development at the CCMC to provide just such a comprehensive validation for models of the ambient solar wind in the inner heliosphere. We have built upon previous efforts published in the community, sharpened their definitions, and completed a baseline study. We also provide first results from this program of the comparative performance of the MHD models available at the CCMC against that of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. An important goal of this effort is to provide a consistent validation to all available models. Clearly exposing the relative strengths and weaknesses of the different models will enable forecasters to craft more reliable ensemble forecasting strategies. Models of the ambient solar wind are developing rapidly as a result of improvements in data supply, numerical techniques, and computing resources. It is anticipated that in the next five to ten years, the MHD based models will supplant semi-empirical potential based models such as the WSA model, as the best available forecast models. We anticipate that this validation effort will track this evolution and so assist policy makers in gauging the value of past and future investment in modeling support.

  10. Traffic modelling validation of advanced driver assistance systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tongeren, R. van; Gietelink, O.J.; Schutter, B. de; Verhaegen, M.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a microscopic traffic model for the validation of advanced driver assistance systems. This model describes single-lane traffic and is calibrated with data from a field operational test. To illustrate the use of the model, a Monte Carlo simulation of single-lane traffic scenarios

  11. Baroclinic Effects on Tidal Propagation and Estuarine Circulation: an Idealized Modeling Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Z.; Olabarrieta, M.

    2016-02-01

    This study evaluates the baroclinic effects on the propagation of a semidiurnal tide and on the estuarine circulation by applying a three-dimensional Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to an idealized estuary. Different riverine flows and tidal amplitudes are considered to generate various types of estuaries (from strongly stratified to well mixed) in the estuarine parameter space, which is based on the freshwater Froude number (Fr) and mixing number (M). Two groups of scenarios, with and without density difference between riverine flow and ocean water, are carried out. Tidal wave characteristics and residual currents of each scenario are investigated. In strongly stratified estuaries, the baroclinic effects result in a typical bidirectional estuarine circulation, with the surface water flowing downstream and bottom water flowing upstream; if no density variations are considered, the residual current will flow downstream. In well mixed estuaries, surface water goes upstream due to Stokes Drift and bottom water goes downstream as a compensating flow, which can be found in both barotropic and baroclinic simulations. In partially mixed estuaries, without considering the density variations, the estuarine circulation patterns are similar to those in well mixed estuaries; the baroclinic effects will generate a triple-directional estuarine circulation, characterized by a downstream flow below the tidal wave trough and an upstream flow close to the bottom; between the wave crest and trough the residual current is directed upstream due to the Stokes Drift. Tidal amplitude is increasingly amplified from estuary mouth to head in all scenarios, and the intensity of this amplification is larger in baroclinic simulations. The strongest baroclinic effects on the tidal propagation occur in partially mixed estuaries, where the tidal amplitude can increase up to 30% due to baroclinic effects.

  12. An Eddy-Permitting Oceanic General Circulation Model and Its Preliminary Evaluation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘海龙; 张学洪; 李薇; 俞永强; 宇如聪

    2004-01-01

    An eddy-permitting, quasi-global oceanic general circulation model, LICOM (LASG/IAP (State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics) Climate System Ocean Model), with a uniform grid of 0.5°× 0.5° is established.Forced by wind stresses from Hellerman and Rosenstain (1983), a 40-yr integration is conducted with sea surface temperature and salinity being restored to the Levitus 94 datasets. The evaluation of the annual mean climatology of the LICOM control run shows that the large-scale circulation can be well reproduced. A comparison between the LICOM control run and a parallel integration of L30T63, which has the same framework but a coarse resolution, is also made to confirm the impact of resolution on the model performance. On account of the reduction of horizontal viscosity with the enhancement of the horizontal resolution, LICOM improves the simulation with respect to not only the intensity of the large scale circulations, but also the magnitude and structureof the Equatorial Undercurrent and South Equatorial Current. Taking advantage of the fine grid size, the pathway of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) is better represented in LICOM than in L30T63. The transport of ITF in LICOM is more convergent in the upper layer. As a consequence, the Indian Ocean tends to get warmer in LICOM. The poleward heat transports for both the global and individual basins are also significantly improved in LICOM. A decomposed analysis indicates that the transport due to the barotropic gyre, which primarily stands for the barotropic effect of the western boundary currents, plays a crucial role in making the difference.

  13. A model study of present-day Hall-effect circulators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Placke, B. [RWTH Aachen University, Institute for Quantum Information, Aachen (Germany); Bosco, S. [RWTH Aachen University, Institute for Quantum Information, Aachen (Germany); Juelich-Aachen Research Alliance (JARA), Fundamentals of Future Information Technologiesh, Juelich (Germany); DiVincenzo, D.P. [RWTH Aachen University, Institute for Quantum Information, Aachen (Germany); Juelich-Aachen Research Alliance (JARA), Fundamentals of Future Information Technologiesh, Juelich (Germany); Peter Gruenberg Institute, Theoretical Nanoelectronics, Forschungszentrum Juelich, Juelich (Germany)

    2017-12-15

    Stimulated by the recent implementation of a three-port Hall-effect microwave circulator of Mahoney et al. (MEA), we present model studies of the performance of this device. Our calculations are based on the capacitive-coupling model of Viola and DiVincenzo (VD). Based on conductance data from a typical Hall-bar device obtained from a two-dimensional electron gas (2DEG) in a magnetic field, we numerically solve the coupled field-circuit equations to calculate the expected performance of the circulator, as determined by the S parameters of the device when coupled to 50Ω ports, as a function of frequency and magnetic field. Above magnetic fields of 1.5 T, for which a typical 2DEG enters the quantum Hall regime (corresponding to a Landau-level filling fraction ν of 20), the Hall angle θ{sub H} = tan{sup -1} σ{sub xy}/σ{sub xx} always remains close to 90 , and the S parameters are close to the analytic predictions of VD for θ{sub H} = π/2. As anticipated by VD, MEA find the device to have rather high (kΩ) impedance, and thus to be extremely mismatched to 50Ω, requiring the use of impedance matching. We incorporate the lumped matching circuits of MEA in our modeling and confirm that they can produce excellent circulation, although confined to a very small bandwidth. We predict that this bandwidth is significantly improved by working at lower magnetic field when the Landau index is high, e.g. ν = 20, and the impedance mismatch is correspondingly less extreme. Our modeling also confirms the observation of MEA that parasitic port-to-port capacitance can produce very interesting countercirculation effects. (orig.)

  14. An approach for modeling thermal destruction of hazardous wastes in circulating fluidized bed incinerator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patil, M P; Sonolikar, R L

    2008-10-01

    This paper presents a detailed computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based approach for modeling thermal destruction of hazardous wastes in a circulating fluidized bed (CFB) incinerator. The model is based on Eular - Lagrangian approach in which gas phase (continuous phase) is treated in a Eularian reference frame, whereas the waste particulate (dispersed phase) is treated in a Lagrangian reference frame. The reaction chemistry hasbeen modeled through a mixture fraction/ PDF approach. The conservation equations for mass, momentum, energy, mixture fraction and other closure equations have been solved using a general purpose CFD code FLUENT4.5. Afinite volume method on a structured grid has been used for solution of governing equations. The model provides detailed information on the hydrodynamics (gas velocity, particulate trajectories), gas composition (CO, CO2, O2) and temperature inside the riser. The model also allows different operating scenarios to be examined in an efficient manner.

  15. Quantitative system validation in model driven design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hermanns, Hilger; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Raskin, Jean-Francois;

    2010-01-01

    The European STREP project Quasimodo1 develops theory, techniques and tool components for handling quantitative constraints in model-driven development of real-time embedded systems, covering in particular real-time, hybrid and stochastic aspects. This tutorial highlights the advances made, focus...

  16. Regionally coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-marine biogeochemistry model ROM: 1. Description and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sein, Dmitry V.; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Gröger, Matthias; Fast, Irina; Cabos, William; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Hagemann, Stefan; Semmler, Tido; Izquierdo, Alfredo; Jacob, Daniela

    2015-03-01

    The general circulation models used to simulate global climate typically feature resolution too coarse to reproduce many smaller-scale processes, which are crucial to determining the regional responses to climate change. A novel approach to downscale climate change scenarios is presented which includes the interactions between the North Atlantic Ocean and the European shelves as well as their impact on the North Atlantic and European climate. The goal of this paper is to introduce the global ocean-regional atmosphere coupling concept and to show the potential benefits of this model system to simulate present-day climate. A global ocean-sea ice-marine biogeochemistry model (MPIOM/HAMOCC) with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model (REMO) and global terrestrial hydrology model (HD) via the OASIS coupler. Moreover, results obtained with ROM using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and ECHAM5/MPIOM CMIP3 historical simulations as boundary conditions are presented and discussed for the North Atlantic and North European region. The validation of all the model components, i.e., ocean, atmosphere, terrestrial hydrology, and ocean biogeochemistry is performed and discussed. The careful and detailed validation of ROM provides evidence that the proposed model system improves the simulation of many aspects of the regional climate, remarkably the ocean, even though some biases persist in other model components, thus leaving potential for future improvement. We conclude that ROM is a powerful tool to estimate possible impacts of climate change on the regional scale.

  17. Validation of limited sampling models (LSM) for estimating AUC in therapeutic drug monitoring - is a separate validation group required?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Proost, J. H.

    2007-01-01

    Objective: Limited sampling models (LSM) for estimating AUC in therapeutic drug monitoring are usually validated in a separate group of patients, according to published guidelines. The aim of this study is to evaluate the validation of LSM by comparing independent validation with cross-validation us

  18. A Computing Approach with the Heat-Loss Model for the Transient Analysis of Liquid Metal Natural Circulation Loop

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daogang Lu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The transient behaviors of natural circulation loop (NCL are important for the system reliability under postulated accidents. The heat loss and structure thermal inertia may influence the transient behaviors of NCL greatly, so a transient analysis model with consideration of heat loss was developed based on the MATLAB/Simulink to predict the thermal-hydraulic characteristic of liquid metal NCL. The transient processes including the start-up, the loss of pump, and the shutdown of thermal-hydraulic ADS lead bismuth loop (TALL experimental facility were simulated by using the model. A good agreement is obtained to validate the transient model. The appended structure would provide significant thermal inertia and flatten the temperature distribution in the transients. The oscillations of temperature and flow rate are also weakened. The temperature difference between hot leg and cold leg would increase with the decrease of heat loss, so the flow rate increases as well. However, a significant increase of hot section temperature may cause a failure of facility integrity due to the decrease of heat loss. Hence, the full power of the core tank may also be limited.

  19. Validation and comparison of bend circulation velocity distribution formulas%弯道环流流速公式的验证与比较

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李志威; 方春明; 邵佳

    2011-01-01

    弯道环流流速公式是弯道水力学理论研究的重要内容.给出了弯道环流流速公式的一般理论推导过程,归纳了国内外5种具有代表性的环流流速公式,即罗索夫斯基公式、张红武公式、Odgaard公式、孙东坡公式以及罗索夫斯基修正公式,并采用弯道水槽及模型资料予以验证和比较,同时对3种罗氏公式的近似式进行了验证.验证结果表明,罗氏公式的3种近似式中,只有丁君松的近似式是精度较高,其它两种均有较大偏差.5种代表性的环流流速公式,张红武公式的精度高和可靠性强,其次是罗氏公式和Odgaard公式,孙东坡公式与张红武的实测资料存在一定偏差,而罗索夫斯基修正公式的形式不尽合理,在近底区域与实测资料分歧较大,甚至与定性规律相悖.%The velocity distribution formula of bend secondary flow is still an important content of theoretical research of meandering rivers. The general deduction process of the circulation velocity formula is presented. This paper summarizes five representative circulation velocity formulas, namely Rozovskii's formula, Zhang Honghu's formula, Odgaard's formula, Sun Dongpo's formula and modified Rozovskii formula. The Rozovskii's and Zhang Hongwu's experimental data are used to validate and compare the five formulas, including three approximate expressions of Rozovskii's formula. The validation results show that the precision of Ding Junsong's approximate expressions is higher, and the deviation of other two experssions is larger. In five representative circulation velocity formulas, the precision and reliability of Zhang's formula is the best, followed by Rozovskii's and Odgaard's formulas, and Sun's formula is poorly accorded with Zhang Hongwu's experimental data. The format of approximate expressions of modified Rozovskiis formula may be unreasonable, and especially in near bed zone it is apparently anamorphic and inconsistent with the qualitative

  20. Reconciling the observed and modeled Southern Hemisphere circulation response to volcanic eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGraw, Marie C.; Barnes, Elizabeth A.; Deser, Clara

    2016-07-01

    Confusion exists regarding the tropospheric circulation response to volcanic eruptions, with models and observations seeming to disagree on the sign of the response. The forced Southern Hemisphere circulation response to the eruptions of Pinatubo and El Chichón is shown to be a robust positive annular mode, using over 200 ensemble members from 38 climate models. It is demonstrated that the models and observations are not at odds, but rather, internal climate variability is large and can overwhelm the forced response. It is further argued that the state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation can at least partially explain the sign of the observed anomalies and may account for the perceived discrepancy between model and observational studies. The eruptions of both El Chichón and Pinatubo occurred during El Niño events, and it is demonstrated that the Southern Annular Mode anomalies following volcanic eruptions are weaker during El Niño events compared to La Niña events.

  1. Abnormal arterial flows by a distributed model of the fetal circulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Wijngaard, Jeroen P H M; Westerhof, Berend E; Faber, Dirk J; Ramsay, Margaret M; Westerhof, Nico; van Gemert, Martin J C

    2006-11-01

    Modeling the propagation of blood pressure and flow along the fetoplacental arterial tree may improve interpretation of abnormal flow velocity waveforms in fetuses. The current models, however, either do not include a wide range of gestational ages or do not account for variation in anatomical, vascular, or rheological parameters. We developed a mathematical model of the pulsating fetoumbilical arterial circulation using Womersley's oscillatory flow theory and viscoelastic arterial wall properties. Arterial flow waves are calculated at different arterial locations from which the pulsatility index (PI) can be determined. We varied blood viscosity, placental and brain resistances, placental compliance, heart rate, stiffness of the arterial wall, and length of the umbilical arteries. The PI increases in the umbilical artery and decreases in the cerebral arteries, as a result of increasing placental resistance or decreasing brain resistance. Both changes in resistance decrease the flow through the placenta. An increased arterial stiffness increases the PIs in the entire fetoplacental circulation. Blood viscosity and peripheral bed compliance have limited influence on the flow profiles. Bradycardia and tachycardia increase and decrease the PI in all arteries, respectively. Umbilical arterial length has limited influence on the PI but affects the mean arterial pressure at the placental cord insertion. The model may improve the interpretation of arterial flow pulsations and thus may advance both the understanding of pathophysiological processes and clinical management.

  2. Circulation and microplastic dispersion in the Chiemsee (Germany) investigated with numerical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcello Falcieri, Francesco; Laforsch, Christian; Piehl, Sarah; Ricchi, Antonio; Atwood, Elizabeth C.; Carniel, Sandro; Sclavo, Mauro

    2017-04-01

    The Chiemsee (measuring about 80 km2 and a maximum depth of 73 m) is a NATURA 2000 site and one of the major German lakes and plays a significant environmental role for the region. Moreover it is an important touristic destination, making its beaches and water quality highly valuable from a socio-economical viewpoint. As for most inland European aquatic environments, the Chiemsee was recently found to be contaminated by microplastic (i.e. plastic fragments smaller than 0.5 mm). Two main microplastics sources were identified in the Chiemsee: riverine inputs, and degradation of litter from touristic beaches. Hence, it is of interest to study lake circulation and the resulting microplastic dispersion from these sources in order to support activities to achieve a good environmental status. Here we present the first attempt to characterize the hydrodynamic processes of the Chiemsee with a high resolution 3D implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). The simulations were forced with observed riverine inputs and modeled atmospherical fields computed with a local implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Modeling results provide a first insight into the Chiemsee circulation system and contribute to understanding the dispersion pathways of microplastic particles from different sources. Furthermore, results can be used to highlight coastlines with higher risk of microplastic accumulation, identified using a set of Lagrangian simulations. The work was partially supported by the CNR Short Term Mobility grant.

  3. Ensuring the Validity of the Micro Foundation in DSGE Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Martin Møller

    The presence of i) stochastic trends, ii) deterministic trends, and/or iii) stochastic volatil- ity in DSGE models may imply that the agents' objective functions attain infinite values. We say that such models do not have a valid micro foundation. The paper derives sufficient condi- tions which...... ensure that the objective functions of the households and the firms are finite even when various trends and stochastic volatility are included in a standard DSGE model. Based on these conditions we test the validity of the micro foundation in six DSGE models from the literature. The models of Justiniano...... & Primiceri (American Economic Review, forth- coming) and Fernández-Villaverde & Rubio-Ramírez (Review of Economic Studies, 2007) do not satisfy these sufficient conditions, or any other known set of conditions ensuring finite values for the objective functions. Thus, the validity of the micro foundation...

  4. Validation of Air Traffic Controller Workload Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-09-01

    SAR) tapes dtirinq the data reduc- tion phase of the project. Kentron International Limited provided the software support for the oroject. This included... ETABS ) or to revised traffic control procedures. The models also can be used to verify productivity benefits after new configurations have been...col- lected and processed manually. A preliminary compari- son has been made between standard NAS Stage A and ETABS operations at Miami. 1.2

  5. Upper-Ocean Heat Balance Processes and the Walker Circulation in CMIP5 Model Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, F. R.; Roberts, J. B.; Funk, C.; Lyon, B.; Ricciardulli, L.

    2012-01-01

    Considerable uncertainty remains as to the importance of mechanisms governing decadal and longer variability of the Walker Circulation, its connection to the tropical climate system, and prospects for tropical climate change in the face of anthropogenic forcing. Most contemporary climate models suggest that in response to elevated CO2 and a warmer but more stratified atmosphere, the required upward mass flux in tropical convection will diminish along with the Walker component of the tropical mean circulation as well. Alternatively, there is also evidence to suggest that the shoaling and increased vertical stratification of the thermocline in the eastern Pacific will enable a muted SST increase there-- preserving or even enhancing some of the dynamical forcing for the Walker cell flow. Over the past decade there have been observational indications of an acceleration in near-surface easterlies, a strengthened Pacific zonal SST gradient, and globally-teleconnected dislocations in precipitation. But is this evidence in support of an ocean dynamical thermostat process posited to accompany anthropogenic forcing, or just residual decadal fluctuations associated with variations in warm and cold ENSO events and other stochastic forcing? From a modeling perspective we try to make headway on this question by examining zonal variations in surface energy fluxes and dynamics governing tropical upper ocean heat content evolution in the WCRP CMIP5 model projections. There is some diversity among model simulations; for example, the CCSM4 indicates net ocean warming over the IndoPacific region while the CSIRO model concentrates separate warming responses over the central Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The models, as with observations, demonstrate strong local coupling between variations in column water vapor, downward surface longwave radiation and SST; but the spatial patterns of changes in the sign of this relationship differ among models and, for models as a whole, with

  6. Modified graphical autocatalytic set model of combustion process in circulating fluidized bed boiler

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusof, Nurul Syazwani; Bakar, Sumarni Abu; Ismail, Razidah

    2014-07-01

    Circulating Fluidized Bed Boiler (CFB) is a device for generating steam by burning fossil fuels in a furnace operating under a special hydrodynamic condition. Autocatalytic Set has provided a graphical model of chemical reactions that occurred during combustion process in CFB. Eight important chemical substances known as species were represented as nodes and catalytic relationships between nodes are represented by the edges in the graph. In this paper, the model is extended and modified by considering other relevant chemical reactions that also exist during the process. Catalytic relationship among the species in the model is discussed. The result reveals that the modified model is able to gives more explanation of the relationship among the species during the process at initial time t.

  7. Modeling and simulation of the effects of landslide on circulation of transports on the mountain roads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manh Hung Nguyen

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Landslides, as one of the major natural hazards, account each year for enormous property damage in terms of both direct and indirect costs. Mountain roads where probability of land sliding is the highest, causes hurdles not only in the traffic flow but generate various traffic problems in the form of congestion, high accidents rate and waste of time. This paper introduces an agent-based model for modeling and simulation of the effects of landslide on the circulation of transports on mountain roads. This model is applied to the National Road N°6 of Vietnam to visualize and analyze the effects of landslide on the road when it occurs. This model could help us to improve and optimally organize of landslide warning and rescue system on the road.

  8. Martian aeolian features and deposits - Comparisons with general circulation model results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greeley, Ronald; Skypeck, Andrew; Pollack, James B.

    1993-01-01

    The relationships between near-surface winds and the distribution of wind-related features are investigated by means of a general circulation model of Mars' atmosphere. Predictions of wind surface stress as a function of season and dust optical depth are used to investigate the distribution and orientation of wind streaks, yardangs, and rock abundance on the surface. The global distribution of rocks on the surface correlates well with predicted wind stress, particularly during the dust storm season. The rocky areas are sites of strong winds, suggesting that fine material is swept away by the wind, leaving rocks and coarser material behind.

  9. Orographic effects on tropical climate in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okajima, Hideki

    Large-scale mountain modifies the atmospheric circulation directly through dynamic and thermodynamic process, and also indirectly through the interaction with the ocean. To investigate orographic impacts on tropical climate, a fully coupled general circulation model (CGCM) is developed by coupling a state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model and an ocean general circulation model. With realistic boundary conditions, the CGCM produces a reasonable climatology of sea surface temperature (SST), surface winds, and precipitation. When global mountains are removed, the model climatology displays substantial changes in both the mean-state and the seasonal cycle. The equatorial eastern Pacific SST acquires a semi-annual component as inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) flips and flops across the equator following the seasonal migration of the sun. Without the Andes, wet air flows into the southeastern tropical Pacific from the humid Amazon, which weakens the meridional asymmetry during the Peruvian warm season (February-April). In addition, the northeasterly trade winds are enhanced north of the equator without the orographic blocking of Central American mountains and cools SST. Triggered by the SST cooling north and moistening south of the equator, the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback further weakens the meridional asymmetry and prolongs the southern ITCZ. In the Atlantic Ocean, the equatorial cold tongue is substantially strengthened and develops a pronounced annual cycle in the absence of mountains. The easterly winds are overall enhanced over the equatorial Atlantic without orographic heating over the African highlands, developing a zonal asymmetry strengthened by the Bjerknes feedback. In the Indian Ocean, the thermocline shoals eastward and an equatorial cold tongue appears twice a year. During boreal summer, the Findlater jet is greatly weakened off Somalia and SST warms in the western Indian Ocean, forcing the equatorial easterly winds amplified

  10. Coastal circulation off Ratnagiri, west coast of India during monsoon seasons: a numerical model study.

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Samiksha, S.V.; Sharif, J.; Vethamony, P.

    simulations using MIKE 21 particle analysis module. Model can incorporate flooding and drying conditions of exposed areas such as shoals, mud flat, sand bars, etc., and thus the areas that are prone to continuous flooding and drying can be treated more...). 485SAMIKSHA et al: COASTAL CIRCULATION OFF RATNAGIRI stronger than the flood tide since the wind driven currents are also in the same direction. During ebb tide, the predominant flow is towards south and during flood, the flow is towards north (Fig. 7...

  11. Experiments for foam model development and validation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bourdon, Christopher Jay; Cote, Raymond O.; Moffat, Harry K.; Grillet, Anne Mary; Mahoney, James F. (Honeywell Federal Manufacturing and Technologies, Kansas City Plant, Kansas City, MO); Russick, Edward Mark; Adolf, Douglas Brian; Rao, Rekha Ranjana; Thompson, Kyle Richard; Kraynik, Andrew Michael; Castaneda, Jaime N.; Brotherton, Christopher M.; Mondy, Lisa Ann; Gorby, Allen D.

    2008-09-01

    A series of experiments has been performed to allow observation of the foaming process and the collection of temperature, rise rate, and microstructural data. Microfocus video is used in conjunction with particle image velocimetry (PIV) to elucidate the boundary condition at the wall. Rheology, reaction kinetics and density measurements complement the flow visualization. X-ray computed tomography (CT) is used to examine the cured foams to determine density gradients. These data provide input to a continuum level finite element model of the blowing process.

  12. Modelling of hydrothermal fluid circulation in a heterogeneous medium: Application to the Rainbow Vent site (Mid-Atlantic-Ridge, 36°14N)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, F.; Mügler, C.; Jean-Baptiste, P.; Charlou, J. L.

    2012-04-01

    Hydrothermal activity at the axis of mid-ocean ridges is a key driver for energy and matter transfer from the interior of the Earth to the ocean floor. At mid-ocean ridges, seawater penetrates through the permeable young crust, warms at depth and exchanges chemicals with the surrounding rocks. This hot fluid focuses and flows upwards, then is expelled from the crust at hydrothermal vent sites in the form of black or white smokers completed by diffusive emissions. We developed a new numerical tool in the Cast3M software framework to model such hydrothermal circulations. Thermodynamic properties of one-phase pure water were calculated from the IAPWS formulation. This new numerical tool was validated on several test cases of convection in closed-top and open-top boxes. Simulations of hydrothermal circulation in a homogeneous-permeability porous medium also gave results in good agreement with already published simulations. We used this new numerical tool to construct a geometric and physical model configuration of the Rainbow Vent site at 36°14'N on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. In this presentation, several configurations will be discussed, showing that high temperatures and high mass fluxes measured at the Rainbow site cannot be modelled with hydrothermal circulation in a homogeneous-permeability porous medium. We will show that these high values require the presence of a fault or a preferential pathway right below the venting site. We will propose and discuss a 2-D one-path model that allows us to simulate both high temperatures and high mass fluxes. This modelling of the hydrothermal circulation at the Rainbow site constitutes a first but necessary step to understand the origin of high concentrations of hydrogen issued from this ultramafic-hosted vent field.

  13. Results of an interactively coupled atmospheric chemistry - general circulation model. Comparison with observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hein, R.; Dameris, M.; Schnadt, C. [and others

    2000-01-01

    An interactively coupled climate-chemistry model which enables a simultaneous treatment of meteorology and atmospheric chemistry and their feedbacks is presented. This is the first model, which interactively combines a general circulation model based on primitive equations with a rather complex model of stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry, and which is computational efficient enough to allow long-term integrations with currently available computer resources. The applied model version extends from the Earth's surface up to 10 hPa with a relatively high number (39) of vertical levels. We present the results of a present-day (1990) simulation and compare it to available observations. We focus on stratospheric dynamics and chemistry relevant to describe the stratospheric ozone layer. The current model version ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM can realistically reproduce stratospheric dynamics in the Arctic vortex region, including stratospheric warming events. This constitutes a major improvement compared to formerly applied model versions. However, apparent shortcomings in Antarctic circulation and temperatures persist. The seasonal and interannual variability of the ozone layer is simulated in accordance with observations. Activation and deactivation of chlorine in the polar stratospheric vortices and their interhemispheric differences are reproduced. The consideration of the chemistry feedback on dynamics results in an improved representation of the spatial distribution of stratospheric water vapor concentrations, i.e., the simulated meriodional water vapor gradient in the stratosphere is realistic. The present model version constitutes a powerful tool to investigate, for instance, the combined direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic trace gas emissions, and the future evolution of the ozone layer. (orig.)

  14. Results of an interactively coupled atmospheric chemistry - general circulation model. Comparison with observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hein, R.; Dameris, M.; Schnadt, C. [and others

    2000-01-01

    An interactively coupled climate-chemistry model which enables a simultaneous treatment of meteorology and atmospheric chemistry and their feedbacks is presented. This is the first model, which interactively combines a general circulation model based on primitive equations with a rather complex model of stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry, and which is computational efficient enough to allow long-term integrations with currently available computer resources. The applied model version extends from the Earth's surface up to 10 hPa with a relatively high number (39) of vertical levels. We present the results of a present-day (1990) simulation and compare it to available observations. We focus on stratospheric dynamics and chemistry relevant to describe the stratospheric ozone layer. The current model version ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM can realistically reproduce stratospheric dynamics in the Arctic vortex region, including stratospheric warming events. This constitutes a major improvement compared to formerly applied model versions. However, apparent shortcomings in Antarctic circulation and temperatures persist. The seasonal and interannual variability of the ozone layer is simulated in accordance with observations. Activation and deactivation of chlorine in the polar stratospheric vortices and their interhemispheric differences are reproduced. The consideration of the chemistry feedback on dynamics results in an improved representation of the spatial distribution of stratospheric water vapor concentrations, i.e., the simulated meriodional water vapor gradient in the stratosphere is realistic. The present model version constitutes a powerful tool to investigate, for instance, the combined direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic trace gas emissions, and the future evolution of the ozone layer. (orig.)

  15. Effects of wave-induced forcing on a circulation model of the North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staneva, Joanna; Alari, Victor; Breivik, Øyvind; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Mogensen, Kristian

    2017-01-01

    The effect of wind waves on water level and currents during two storms in the North Sea is investigated using a high-resolution Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) model forced with fluxes and fields from a high-resolution wave model. The additional terms accounting for wave-current interaction that are considered in this study are the Stokes-Coriolis force, the sea-state-dependent energy and momentum fluxes. The individual and collective role of these processes is quantified and the results are compared with a control run without wave effects as well as against current and water-level measurements from coastal stations. We find a better agreement with observations when the circulation model is forced by sea-state-dependent fluxes, especially in extreme events. The two extreme events, the storm Christian (25-27 October 2013), and about a month later, the storm Xaver (5-7 December 2013), induce different wave and surge conditions over the North Sea. Including the wave effects in the circulation model for the storm Xaver raises the modelled surge by more than 40 cm compared with the control run in the German Bight area. For the storm Christian, a difference of 20-30 cm in the surge level between the wave-forced and the stand-alone ocean model is found over the whole southern part of the North Sea. Moreover, the modelled vertical velocity profile fits the observations very well when the wave forcing is accounted for. The contribution of wave-induced forcing has been quantified indicating that this represents an important mechanism for improving water-level and current predictions.

  16. Functional state modelling approach validation for yeast and bacteria cultivations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roeva, Olympia; Pencheva, Tania

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, the functional state modelling approach is validated for modelling of the cultivation of two different microorganisms: yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) and bacteria (Escherichia coli). Based on the available experimental data for these fed-batch cultivation processes, three different functional states are distinguished, namely primary product synthesis state, mixed oxidative state and secondary product synthesis state. Parameter identification procedures for different local models are performed using genetic algorithms. The simulation results show high degree of adequacy of the models describing these functional states for both S. cerevisiae and E. coli cultivations. Thus, the local models are validated for the cultivation of both microorganisms. This fact is a strong structure model verification of the functional state modelling theory not only for a set of yeast cultivations, but also for bacteria cultivation. As such, the obtained results demonstrate the efficiency and efficacy of the functional state modelling approach. PMID:26740778

  17. Functional state modelling approach validation for yeast and bacteria cultivations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roeva, Olympia; Pencheva, Tania

    2014-09-03

    In this paper, the functional state modelling approach is validated for modelling of the cultivation of two different microorganisms: yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) and bacteria (Escherichia coli). Based on the available experimental data for these fed-batch cultivation processes, three different functional states are distinguished, namely primary product synthesis state, mixed oxidative state and secondary product synthesis state. Parameter identification procedures for different local models are performed using genetic algorithms. The simulation results show high degree of adequacy of the models describing these functional states for both S. cerevisiae and E. coli cultivations. Thus, the local models are validated for the cultivation of both microorganisms. This fact is a strong structure model verification of the functional state modelling theory not only for a set of yeast cultivations, but also for bacteria cultivation. As such, the obtained results demonstrate the efficiency and efficacy of the functional state modelling approach.

  18. Simulation of anthropogenic CO2 uptake in the CCSM3.1 ocean circulation-biogeochemical model: comparison with data-based estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Khatiwala

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The global ocean has taken up a large fraction of the CO2 released by human activities since the industrial revolution. Quantifying the oceanic anthropogenic carbon (Cant inventory and its variability is important for predicting the future global carbon cycle. The detailed comparison of data-based and model-based estimates is essential for the validation and continued improvement of our prediction capabilities. So far, three global estimates of oceanic Cant inventory that are "data-based" and independent of global ocean circulation models have been produced: one based on the Δ C* method, and two that are based on constraining surface-to-interior transport of tracers, the TTD method and a maximum entropy inversion method (GF. The GF method, in particular, is capable of reconstructing the history of Cant inventory through the industrial era. In the present study we use forward model simulations of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3.1 to estimate the Cant inventory and compare the results with the data-based estimates. We also use the simulations to test several assumptions of the GF method, including the assumption of constant climate and circulation, which is common to all the data-based estimates. Though the integrated estimates of global Cant inventories are consistent with each other, the regional estimates show discrepancies up to 50 %. The CCSM3 model underestimates the total Cant inventory, in part due to weak mixing and ventilation in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Analyses of different simulation results suggest that key assumptions about ocean circulation and air-sea disequilibrium in the GF method are generally valid on the global scale, but may introduce errors in Cant estimates on regional scales. The GF method should also be used with caution when predicting future oceanic anthropogenic carbon uptake.

  19. Simulation of anthropogenic CO2 uptake in the CCSM3.1 ocean circulation-biogeochemical model: comparison with data-based estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. W. Primeau

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available The global ocean has taken up a large fraction of the CO2 released by human activities since the industrial revolution. Quantifying the oceanic anthropogenic carbon (Cant inventory and its variability is important for predicting the future global carbon cycle. The detailed comparison of data-based and model-based estimates is essential for the validation and continued improvement of our prediction capabilities. So far, three global estimates of oceanic Cant inventory that are "data-based" and independent of global ocean circulation models have been produced: one based on the ΔC* method, and two are based on reconstructions of the Green function for the surface-to-interior transport, the TTD method and the maximum entropy inversion method (KPH. The KPH method, in particular, is capable of reconstructing the history of Cant inventory through the industrial era. In the present study we use forward model simulations of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3.1 to estimate the Cant inventory and compare the results with the data-based estimates. We also use the simulations to test several assumptions of the KPH method, including the assumption of constant climate and circulation, which is common to all the data-based estimates. Though the integrated estimates of global Cant inventories are consistent with each other, the regional estimates show discrepancies up to 50 %. The CCSM3 model underestimates the total Cant inventory, in part due to weak mixing and ventilation in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Analyses of different simulation results suggest that key assumptions about ocean circulation and air-sea disequilibrium in the KPH method are generally valid on the global scale, but may introduce significant errors in Cant estimates on regional scales. The KPH method should also be used with caution when predicting future oceanic anthropogenic carbon uptake.

  20. Constraining a Martian general circulation model with the MAVEN/IUVS observations in the thermosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moeckel, Chris; Medvedev, Alexander; Nakagawa, Hiromu; Evans, Scott; Kuroda, Takeshi; Hartogh, Paul; Yiğit, Erdal; Jain, Sonal; Lo, Daniel; Schneider, Nicholas M.; Jakosky, Bruce

    2016-10-01

    The recent measurements of the number density of atomic oxygen by Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN/ Imaging UltraViolet Spectrograph (MAVEN/IUVS) have been implemented for the first time into a global circulation model to quantify the effect on the Martian thermosphere. The number density has been converted to 1D volume mixing ratio and this profile is compared to the atomic oxygen scenarios based on chemical models. Simulations were performed with the Max Planck Institute Martian General Circulation Model (MPI-MGCM). The simulations closely emulate the conditions at the time of observations. The results are compared to the IUVS-measured CO2 number density and temperature above 130 km to gain knowledge of the processes in the upper atmosphere and further constrain them in MGCMs. The presentation will discuss the role and importance in the thermosphere of the following aspects: (a) impact of the observed atomic oxygen, (b) 27-day solar cycle variations, (c) varying dust load in the lower atmosphere, and (d) gravity waves.

  1. Integrated cumulus ensemble and turbulence (ICET): An integrated parameterization system for general circulation models (GCMs)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, J.L.; Frank, W.M.; Young, G.S. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)

    1996-04-01

    Successful simulations of the global circulation and climate require accurate representation of the properties of shallow and deep convective clouds, stable-layer clouds, and the interactions between various cloud types, the boundary layer, and the radiative fluxes. Each of these phenomena play an important role in the global energy balance, and each must be parameterized in a global climate model. These processes are highly interactive. One major problem limiting the accuracy of parameterizations of clouds and other processes in general circulation models (GCMs) is that most of the parameterization packages are not linked with a common physical basis. Further, these schemes have not, in general, been rigorously verified against observations adequate to the task of resolving subgrid-scale effects. To address these problems, we are designing a new Integrated Cumulus Ensemble and Turbulence (ICET) parameterization scheme, installing it in a climate model (CCM2), and evaluating the performance of the new scheme using data from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) sites.

  2. Numerical simulation and artificial neural network modeling of natural circulation boiling water reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garg, A. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, Guwahati 781039, Assam (India); Sastry, P.S. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, Guwahati 781039, Assam (India); Pandey, M. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, Guwahati 781039, Assam (India)]. E-mail: manmohan@iitg.ac.in; Dixit, U.S. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, Guwahati 781039, Assam (India); Gupta, S.K. [Atomic Energy Regulatory Board, Mumbai 400085 (India)

    2007-02-15

    Numerical simulation of natural circulation boiling water reactor is important in order to study its performance for different designs and under various off-design conditions. Numerical simulations can be performed by using thermal-hydraulic codes. Very fast numerical simulations, useful for extensive parametric studies and for solving design optimization problems, can be achieved by using an artificial neural network (ANN) model of the system. In the present work, numerical simulations of natural circulation boiling water reactor have been performed with RELAP5 code for different values of design parameters and operational conditions. Parametric trends observed have been discussed. The data obtained from these simulations have been used to train artificial neural networks, which in turn have been used for further parametric studies and design optimization. The ANN models showed error within {+-}5% for all the simulated data. Two most popular methods, multilayer perceptron (MLP) and radial basis function (RBF) networks, have been used for the training of ANN model. Sequential quadratic programming (SQP) has been used for optimization.

  3. Improved short-term variability in the thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Häusler, K.; Hagan, M. E.; Baumgaertner, A. J. G.; Maute, A.; Lu, G.; Doornbos, E.; Bruinsma, S.; Forbes, J. M.; Gasperini, F.

    2014-08-01

    We report on a new source of tidal variability in the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM). Lower boundary forcing of the TIME-GCM for a simulation of November-December 2009 based on 3-hourly Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) reanalysis data includes day-to-day variations in both diurnal and semidiurnal tides of tropospheric origin. Comparison with TIME-GCM results from a heretofore standard simulation that includes climatological tropospheric tides from the global-scale wave model reveal evidence of the impacts of MERRA forcing throughout the model domain, including measurable tidal variability in the TIME-GCM upper thermosphere. Additional comparisons with measurements made by the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer satellite show improved TIME-GCM capability to capture day-to-day variations in thermospheric density for the November-December 2009 period with the new MERRA lower boundary forcing.

  4. Validation of Orthorectified Interferometric Radar Imagery and Digital Elevation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith Charles M.

    2004-01-01

    This work was performed under NASA's Verification and Validation (V&V) Program as an independent check of data supplied by EarthWatch, Incorporated, through the Earth Science Enterprise Scientific Data Purchase (SDP) Program. This document serves as the basis of reporting results associated with validation of orthorectified interferometric interferometric radar imagery and digital elevation models (DEM). This validation covers all datasets provided under the first campaign (Central America & Virginia Beach) plus three earlier missions (Indonesia, Red River: and Denver) for a total of 13 missions.

  5. Explicit entrainment parameterization in the general circulation model ECHAM5-HAM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegenthaler-Le Drian, Colombe; Spichtinger, Peter; Lohmann, Ulrike

    2010-05-01

    The complex interactions affecting cloud lifetime and liquid water path (LWP) are not well captured in state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCM). A recent climate model intercomparison showed an overestimation of the positive correlation of LWP with aerosol optical depth by a factor of two as compared to MODIS data for almost all participating models (Quaas et al., 2009). As the authors suggest, a proper interaction of the boundary layer dynamics, particularly the inclusion of cloud top entrainment may lead to an improvement. ECHAM5 was one of the participating model. In this model, the turbulent fluxes in the planetary boundary layer are simulated using a turbulent kinetic energy - mixing length scheme. It has been showed that its performance diminishes when the resolution decreases, the different fluxes being not represented satisfactory with 31 vertical levels, particularly at the cloud top (Lenderink et al., 2000). We thus replace the turbulent fluxes by the explicit entrainment closure by Turton and Nicholls (1987) at the top of the stratocumulus capped boundary layers. The turbulent fluxes are weighted with the cloud cover to apply the entrainment closure only above clouds. In addition, we use an explicit term for the radiative cooling contribution in the buoyancy production term. We use the new version of the Hamburg general circulation model ECHAM5-HAM (Roeckner et al., 2003; Stier et al., 2005). The cloud scheme that is used for this study includes the double-moment cloud microphysics scheme for cloud droplets and ice crystals (Lohmann et al., 2007). The principal effect of the explicit entrainment is to dry and warm the planetary boundary layer. The averaged profiles are more stable and the inversion is reduced. The stratocumulus deck is reduced in all typical stratocumulus regions. In a single column version of the model, the diurnal cycle simulated in cloud cover or equivalentely in cloud water is much more representative of observed subtropical

  6. Validation of a Model of the Domino Effect?

    CERN Document Server

    Larham, Ron

    2008-01-01

    A recent paper proposing a model of the limiting speed of the domino effect is discussed with reference to its need and the need of models in general for validation against experimental data. It is shown that the proposed model diverges significantly from experimentally derived speed estimates over a significant range of domino spacing using data from the existing literature and this author's own measurements, hence if its use had had economic importance its use outside its range of validity could have led to loses of one sort or another to its users.

  7. Resampling procedures to validate dendro-auxometric regression models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Regression analysis has a large use in several sectors of forest research. The validation of a dendro-auxometric model is a basic step in the building of the model itself. The more a model resists to attempts of demonstrating its groundlessness, the more its reliability increases. In the last decades many new theories, that quite utilizes the calculation speed of the calculators, have been formulated. Here we show the results obtained by the application of a bootsprap resampling procedure as a validation tool.

  8. Validation of an Efficient Outdoor Sound Propagation Model Using BEM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quirós-Alpera, S.; Henriquez, Vicente Cutanda; Jacobsen, Finn

    2001-01-01

    An approximate, simple and practical model for prediction of outdoor sound propagation exists based on ray theory, diffraction theory and Fresnel-zone considerations [1]. This model, which can predict sound propagation over non-flat terrain, has been validated for combinations of flat ground, hills...... and barriers, but it still needs to be validated for configurations that involve combinations of valleys and barriers. In order to do this a boundary element model has been implemented in MATLAB to serve as a reliable reference....

  9. Validation of a Model for Ice Formation around Finned Tubes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamal A. R. Ismai

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Phase change materials although attaractive option for thermal storage applications its main drawback is the slow thermal response during charging and discharging processes due to their low thermal conductivity. The present study validates a model developed by the authors some years ago on radial fins as a method to meliorate the thermal performance of PCM in horizontal storage system. The developed model for the radial finned tube is based on pure conduction, the enthalpy approach and was discretized by the finite difference method. Experiments were realized specifically to validate the model and its numerical predictions.

  10. Oxygen supply to the fetal cerebral circulation in hypoplastic left heart syndrome: a simulation study based on the theoretical models of fetal circulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakazaki, Sayaka; Masutani, Satoshi; Sugimoto, Masaya; Tamura, Masanori; Kuwata, Seiko; Kurishima, Clara; Saiki, Hirofumi; Iwamoto, Yoichi; Ishido, Hirotaka; Senzaki, Hideaki

    2015-03-01

    Hypoxia due to congenital heart diseases (CHDs) adversely affects brain development during the fetal period. Head circumference at birth is closely associated with neuropsychiatric development, and it is considerably smaller in newborns with hypoplastic left heart syndrome (HLHS) than in normal newborns. We performed simulation studies on newborns with CHD to evaluate the cerebral circulation during the fetal period. The oxygen saturation of cerebral blood flow in newborns with CHD was simulated according to a model for normal fetal circulation in late pregnancy. We compared the oxygen saturation of cerebral blood flow between newborns with tricuspid atresia (TA; a disease showing univentricular circulation and hypoplasia of the right ventricle), those with transposition of the great arteries (TGA; a disease showing abnormal mixing of arterial and venous blood), and those with HLHS. The oxygen saturation of cerebral blood flow in newborns with normal circulation was 75.7 %, whereas it was low (49.5 %) in both newborns with HLHS and those with TA. Although the oxygen level is affected by the blood flow through the foramen ovale, the oxygen saturation in newborns with TGA was even lower (43.2 %). These data, together with previous reports, suggest that the cerebral blood flow rate is decreased in newborns with HLHS, and the main cause was strongly suspected to be retrograde cerebral perfusion through a patent ductus arteriosus. This study provides important information about the neurodevelopmental prognosis of newborns with HLHS and suggests the need to identify strategies to resolve this unfavorable cerebral circulatory state in utero.

  11. Effects of wave-induced forcing on a circulation model of the North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staneva, Joanna; Alari, Victor; Breivik, Øyvind; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Mogensen, Kristian

    2017-04-01

    The effect of wind waves on water level and currents during two storms in the North Sea is investigated using a high-resolution NEMO model forced with fluxes and fields from a high-resolution wave model. The additional terms accounting for wave-current interaction that are considered in this study are the Stokes-Coriolis force and the sea-state dependent energy and momentum fluxes. The individual and collective role of these processes is quantified and the results are compared with a control run without wave effects as well as against current and water level measurements from coastal stations. We find a better agreement with observations when the circulation model is forced by sea-state dependent fluxes, especially in extreme events. The two extreme events, the storm Christian (25-27 October 2013), and about a month later, the storm Xaver (5-7 December 2013), induce different wave and surge conditions over the North Sea. Including the wave effects in the circulation model for the storm Xaver raises the modelled surge by more than 40 cm compared with the control run in the German Bight area. For the storm Christian, a difference of 20-30 cm in the surge level between the wave-forced and the stand-alone ocean model is found over the whole southern part of the North Sea. Moreover, the modelled vertical velocity profile fits the observations very well when the wave forcing is accounted for. The contribution of wave-induced forcing has been quantified indicating that this represents an important mechanism for improving water level and current predictions.

  12. Using Green's Functions to initialize and adjust a global, eddying ocean biogeochemistry general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brix, H.; Menemenlis, D.; Hill, C.; Dutkiewicz, S.; Jahn, O.; Wang, D.; Bowman, K.; Zhang, H.

    2015-11-01

    The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) Flux Project aims to attribute changes in the atmospheric accumulation of carbon dioxide to spatially resolved fluxes by utilizing the full suite of NASA data, models, and assimilation capabilities. For the oceanic part of this project, we introduce ECCO2-Darwin, a new ocean biogeochemistry general circulation model based on combining the following pre-existing components: (i) a full-depth, eddying, global-ocean configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), (ii) an adjoint-method-based estimate of ocean circulation from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II (ECCO2) project, (iii) the MIT ecosystem model "Darwin", and (iv) a marine carbon chemistry model. Air-sea gas exchange coefficients and initial conditions of dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, and oxygen are adjusted using a Green's Functions approach in order to optimize modeled air-sea CO2 fluxes. Data constraints include observations of carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO2) for 2009-2010, global air-sea CO2 flux estimates, and the seasonal cycle of the Takahashi et al. (2009) Atlas. The model sensitivity experiments (or Green's Functions) include simulations that start from different initial conditions as well as experiments that perturb air-sea gas exchange parameters and the ratio of particulate inorganic to organic carbon. The Green's Functions approach yields a linear combination of these sensitivity experiments that minimizes model-data differences. The resulting initial conditions and gas exchange coefficients are then used to integrate the ECCO2-Darwin model forward. Despite the small number (six) of control parameters, the adjusted simulation is significantly closer to the data constraints (37% cost function reduction, i.e., reduction in the model-data difference, relative to the baseline simulation) and to independent observations (e.g., alkalinity). The adjusted air-sea gas

  13. Child human model development: a hybrid validation approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Forbes, P.A.; Rooij, L. van; Rodarius, C.; Crandall, J.

    2008-01-01

    The current study presents a development and validation approach of a child human body model that will help understand child impact injuries and improve the biofidelity of child anthropometric test devices. Due to the lack of fundamental child biomechanical data needed to fully develop such models a

  14. Child human model development: a hybrid validation approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Forbes, P.A.; Rooij, L. van; Rodarius, C.; Crandall, J.

    2008-01-01

    The current study presents a development and validation approach of a child human body model that will help understand child impact injuries and improve the biofidelity of child anthropometric test devices. Due to the lack of fundamental child biomechanical data needed to fully develop such models a

  15. Reverse electrodialysis : A validated process model for design and optimization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veerman, J.; Saakes, M.; Metz, S. J.; Harmsen, G. J.

    2011-01-01

    Reverse electrodialysis (RED) is a technology to generate electricity using the entropy of the mixing of sea and river water. A model is made of the RED process and validated experimentally. The model is used to design and optimize the RED process. It predicts very small differences between counter-

  16. Validation of a multi-objective, predictive urban traffic model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wilmink, I.R.; Haak, P. van den; Woldeab, Z.; Vreeswijk, J.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes the results of the verification and validation of the ecoStrategic Model, which was developed, implemented and tested in the eCoMove project. The model uses real-time and historical traffic information to determine the current, predicted and desired state of traffic in a network

  17. Measurements for validation of high voltage underground cable modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bak, Claus Leth; Gudmundsdottir, Unnur Stella; Wiechowski, Wojciech Tomasz

    2009-01-01

    This paper discusses studies concerning cable modelling for long high voltage AC cable lines. In investigating the possibilities of using long cables instead of overhead lines, the simulation results must be trustworthy. Therefore a model validation is of great importance. This paper describes...

  18. Model validation for karst flow using sandbox experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, M.; Pacheco Castro, R. B.; Tao, X.; Zhao, J.

    2015-12-01

    The study of flow in karst is complex due of the high heterogeneity of the porous media. Several approaches have been proposed in the literature to study overcome the natural complexity of karst. Some of those methods are the single continuum, double continuum and the discrete network of conduits coupled with the single continuum. Several mathematical and computing models are available in the literature for each approach. In this study one computer model has been selected for each category to validate its usefulness to model flow in karst using a sandbox experiment. The models chosen are: Modflow 2005, Modflow CFPV1 and Modflow CFPV2. A sandbox experiment was implemented in such way that all the parameters required for each model can be measured. The sandbox experiment was repeated several times under different conditions. The model validation will be carried out by comparing the results of the model simulation and the real data. This model validation will allows ud to compare the accuracy of each model and the applicability in Karst. Also we will be able to evaluate if the results of the complex models improve a lot compared to the simple models specially because some models require complex parameters that are difficult to measure in the real world.

  19. Composing, Analyzing and Validating Software Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheldon, Frederick T.

    1998-10-01

    This research has been conducted at the Computational Sciences Division of the Information Sciences Directorate at Ames Research Center (Automated Software Engineering Grp). The principle work this summer has been to review and refine the agenda that were carried forward from last summer. Formal specifications provide good support for designing a functionally correct system, however they are weak at incorporating non-functional performance requirements (like reliability). Techniques which utilize stochastic Petri nets (SPNs) are good for evaluating the performance and reliability for a system, but they may be too abstract and cumbersome from the stand point of specifying and evaluating functional behavior. Therefore, one major objective of this research is to provide an integrated approach to assist the user in specifying both functionality (qualitative: mutual exclusion and synchronization) and performance requirements (quantitative: reliability and execution deadlines). In this way, the merits of a powerful modeling technique for performability analysis (using SPNs) can be combined with a well-defined formal specification language. In doing so, we can come closer to providing a formal approach to designing a functionally correct system that meets reliability and performance goals.

  20. Validation of a terrestrial food chain model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Travis, C C; Blaylock, B P

    1992-01-01

    An increasingly important topic in risk assessment is the estimation of human exposure to environmental pollutants through pathways other than inhalation. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has recently developed a computerized methodology (EPA, 1990) to estimate indirect exposure to toxic pollutants from Municipal Waste Combuster emissions. This methodology estimates health risks from exposure to toxic pollutants from the terrestrial food chain (TFC), soil ingestion, drinking water ingestion, fish ingestion, and dermal absorption via soil and water. Of these, one of the most difficult to estimate is exposure through the food chain. This paper estimates the accuracy of the EPA methodology for estimating food chain contamination. To our knowledge, no data exist on measured concentrations of pollutants in food grown around Municipal Waste Incinerators, and few field-scale studies have been performed on the uptake of pollutants in the food chain. Therefore, to evaluate the EPA methodology, we compare actual measurements of background contaminant levels in food with estimates made using EPA's computerized methodology. Background levels of contaminants in air, water, and soil were used as input to the EPA food chain model to predict background levels of contaminants in food. These predicted values were then compared with the measured background contaminant levels. Comparisons were performed for dioxin, pentachlorophenol, polychlorinated biphenyls, benzene, benzo(a)pyrene, mercury, and lead.

  1. Acceleration technique for Milankovitch type forcing in a coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation model: method and application for the Holocene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lorenz, Stephan J. [Modelle und Daten, Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Lohmann, Gerrit [Universitaet Bremen, Fachbereich Geowissenschaften und DFG Forschungszentrum Ozeanraender, Postfach 330440, Bremen (Germany)

    2004-12-01

    A method is introduced which allows the calculation of long-term climate trends within the framework of a coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation model. The change in the seasonal cycle of incident solar radiation induced by varying orbital parameters has been accelerated by factors of 10 and 100 in order to allow transient simulations over the period from the mid-Holocene until today, covering the last 7,000 years. In contrast to conventional time-slice experiments, this approach is not restricted to equilibrium simulations and is capable to utilise all available data for validation. We find that opposing Holocene climate trends in tropics and extra-tropics are a robust feature in our experiments. Results from the transient simulations of the mid-Holocene climate at 6,000 years before present show considerable differences to atmosphere-alone model simulations, in particular at high latitudes, attributed to atmosphere-ocean-sea ice effects. The simulations were extended for the time period 1800-2000 AD, where, in contrast to the Holocene climate, increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere provide for the strongest driving mechanism. The experiments reveal that a Northern Hemisphere cooling trend over the Holocene is completely cancelled by the warming trend during the last century, which brings the recent global warming into a long-term context. (orig.)

  2. Validation of a two-fluid model used for the simulation of dense fluidized beds; Validation d`un modele a deux fluides applique a la simulation des lits fluidises denses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boelle, A.

    1997-02-17

    A two-fluid model applied to the simulation of gas-solid dense fluidized beds is validated on micro scale and on macro scale. Phase coupling is carried out in the momentum and energy transport equation of both phases. The modeling is built on the kinetic theory of granular media in which the gas action has been taken into account in order to get correct expressions of transport coefficients. A description of hydrodynamic interactions between particles in high Stokes number flow is also incorporated in the model. The micro scale validation uses Lagrangian numerical simulations viewed as numerical experiments. The first validation case refers to a gas particle simple shear flow. It allows to validate the competition between two dissipation mechanisms: drag and particle collisions. The second validation case is concerted with sedimenting particles in high Stokes number flow. It allows to validate our approach of hydrodynamic interactions. This last case had led us to develop an original Lagrangian simulation with a two-way coupling between the fluid and the particles. The macro scale validation uses the results of Eulerian simulations of dense fluidized bed. Bed height, particles circulation and spontaneous created bubbles characteristics are studied and compared to experimental measurement, both looking at physical and numerical parameters. (author) 159 refs.

  3. The modern and glacial overturning circulation in the Atlantic ocean in PMIP coupled model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. L. Weber

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This study analyses the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC to LGM forcings and boundary conditions in nine PMIP coupled model simulations, including both GCMs and Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity. Model results differ widely. The AMOC slows down considerably (by 20–40% during the LGM as compared to the modern climate in four models, there is a slight reduction in one model and four models show a substantial increase in AMOC strength (by 10–40%. It is found that a major controlling factor for the AMOC response is the density contrast between Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW and North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW at their source regions. Changes in the density contrast are determined by the opposing effects of changes in temperature and salinity, with more saline AABW as compared to NADW consistently found in all models and less cooling of AABW in all models but one. In only two models is the AMOC response during the LGM directly related to the response in net evaporation over the Atlantic basin. Most models show large changes in the ocean freshwater transports into the basin, but this does not seem to affect the AMOC response. Finally, there is some dependence on the accuracy of the control state.

  4. Simulations of physics and chemistry of polar stratospheric clouds with a general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buchholz, J.

    2005-04-20

    A polar stratospheric cloud submodel has been developed and incorporated in a general circulation model including atmospheric chemistry (ECHAM5/MESSy). The formation and sedimentation of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) particles can thus be simulated as well as heterogeneous chemical reactions that take place on the PSC particles. For solid PSC particle sedimentation, the need for a tailor-made algorithm has been elucidated. A sedimentation scheme based on first order approximations of vertical mixing ratio profiles has been developed. It produces relatively little numerical diffusion and can deal well with divergent or convergent sedimentation velocity fields. For the determination of solid PSC particle sizes, an efficient algorithm has been adapted. It assumes a monodisperse radii distribution and thermodynamic equilibrium between the gas phase and the solid particle phase. This scheme, though relatively simple, is shown to produce particle number densities and radii within the observed range. The combined effects of the representations of sedimentation and solid PSC particles on vertical H{sub 2}O and HNO{sub 3} redistribution are investigated in a series of tests. The formation of solid PSC particles, especially of those consisting of nitric acid trihydrate, has been discussed extensively in recent years. Three particle formation schemes in accordance with the most widely used approaches have been identified and implemented. For the evaluation of PSC occurrence a new data set with unprecedented spatial and temporal coverage was available. A quantitative method for the comparison of simulation results and observations is developed and applied. It reveals that the relative PSC sighting frequency can be reproduced well with the PSC submodel whereas the detailed modelling of PSC events is beyond the scope of coarse global scale models. In addition to the development and evaluation of new PSC submodel components, parts of existing simulation programs have been

  5. Physical Modeling of the Vacuum Circulation Refining Process of Molten Steel

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    魏季和

    2003-01-01

    The available studies in the literature on physical modeling of the vacuum circulation (RH, i.e. Ruhrstahl-Heraeus) refining process of molten steel have briefly been reviewed. The latest advances made by the author with his research group have been summarized. Water modeling was employed to investigate the flow and mixing characteristics of molten steel under the RH and RH-KTB (Kawasaki top blowing) conditions and the mass transfer features between molten steel and powder particles in the RH-PTB (powder top blowing) refining. The geometric similarity ratio between the model and its prototype (a multifunction RH degasser of 90 t capacity) was 1:5. The effects of the related technological and structural factors were considered. These latest studies have revealed the flow and mixing characteristics of molten steel and the mass transfer features between molten steel and powder particles in these processes, and have provided a better understanding of the refining processes of molten steel.

  6. A search for short-term meteorological effects of solar variability in an atmospheric circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somerville, R. C. J.; Quirk, W. J.; Hansen, J. E.; Lacis, A. A.; Stone, P. H.

    1976-01-01

    A set of numerical experiments is carried out to test the short-range sensitivity of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global atmospheric general-circulation model to changes in solar constant and ozone amount. These experiments consist of forecasts initiated with actual atmospheric data. One set of forecasts is made with a standard version of the model; another set uses the model modified by very different values of the solar constant (two-thirds and three-halves of the standard value) and of the ozone amount (zero and twice the standard amount). Twelve-day integrations with these very large variations show such small effects that the effects of realistic variations would almost certainly be insignificant meteorologically on this time scale.

  7. On the development and validation of QSAR models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gramatica, Paola

    2013-01-01

    The fundamental and more critical steps that are necessary for the development and validation of QSAR models are presented in this chapter as best practices in the field. These procedures are discussed in the context of predictive QSAR modelling that is focused on achieving models of the highest statistical quality and with external predictive power. The most important and most used statistical parameters needed to verify the real performances of QSAR models (of both linear regression and classification) are presented. Special emphasis is placed on the validation of models, both internally and externally, as well as on the need to define model applicability domains, which should be done when models are employed for the prediction of new external compounds.

  8. Surface Lander Missions to Mars: Support via Analysis of the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, James R.; Bridger, Alison F.C.; Haberle, Robert M.

    1997-01-01

    We have characterized the near-surface martian wind environment as calculated with a set of numerical simulations carried out with the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (Mars GCM). These wind environments are intended to offer future spacecraft missions to the martian surface a data base from which to choose those locations which meet the mission's criteria for minimal near surface winds to enable a successful landing. We also became involved in the development and testing of the wind sensor which is currently onboard the Mars-bound Pathfinder lander. We began this effort with a comparison of Mars GCM produced winds with those measured by the Viking landers during their descent through the martian atmosphere and their surface wind measurements during the 3+ martian year lifetime of the mission. Unexpected technical difficulties in implementing the sophisticated Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) scheme of Haberle et al. (1993) within the Mars GCM precluded our carrying out this investigation with the desired improvement to the model's treatment of the PBL. Thus, our results from this effort are not as conclusive as we had anticipated. As it turns out, similar difficulties have been experienced by other Mars modelling groups in attempting to implement very similar PBL routines into their GCMs (Mars General Circulation Model Intercomparison Workshop, held at Oxford University, United Kingdom, July 22-24, 1996; organized by J. Murphy, J. Hollingsworth, M. Joshi). These problems, which arise due to the nature of the time stepping in each of the models, are near to being resolved at the present. The model discussions which follow herein are based upon results using the existing, less sophisticated PBL routine. We fully anticipate implementing the tools we have developed in the present effort to investigate GCM results with the new PBL scheme implemented, and thereafter producing the technical document detailing results from the analysis tools developed during this

  9. Tests of the higher order turbulence model for atmospheric circulations (HOTMAC) at Deseret Chemical Depot

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costigan, K.R.

    1998-11-01

    Deseret Chemical Depot is one of the US Army`s storage facilities for its stockpile of chemical weapon agents. Congress has directed the Department of Defense to eliminate the aging stockpiles, which have existed since the end of World War II, and the US Army is destroying these lethal chemical munitions. Although the danger is slight, accurate predictions of the wind field in the valley are necessary for dispersion calculations in the event of an accident involving toxic chemicals at the depot. There are several small communities in Rush and Tooele valleys, including the town of Tooele, and Salt Lake City is located 65 km to the Northeast of Deseret Chemical Depot South area, at 1,300 m MSL and beyond the Oquirrh Mountains. The purpose of this report is to carry out three-dimensional numerical simulations of the atmospheric circulations in the region around Deseret Chemical Depot with the Higher Order Turbulence Model for Atmospheric Circulations (HOTMAC) and to evaluate the performance of the model. The code had been modified to assimilate local meteorological observations through the use of Newtonian nudging. The nudging scheme takes advantage of the extensive network of local observations in the valley.

  10. A prediction model for ocular damage - Experimental validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heussner, Nico; Vagos, Márcia; Spitzer, Martin S; Stork, Wilhelm

    2015-08-01

    With the increasing number of laser applications in medicine and technology, accidental as well as intentional exposure of the human eye to laser sources has become a major concern. Therefore, a prediction model for ocular damage (PMOD) is presented within this work and validated for long-term exposure. This model is a combination of a raytracing model with a thermodynamical model of the human and an application which determines the thermal damage by the implementation of the Arrhenius integral. The model is based on our earlier work and is here validated against temperature measurements taken with porcine eye samples. For this validation, three different powers were used: 50mW, 100mW and 200mW with a spot size of 1.9mm. Also, the measurements were taken with two different sensing systems, an infrared camera and a fibre optic probe placed within the tissue. The temperatures were measured up to 60s and then compared against simulations. The measured temperatures were found to be in good agreement with the values predicted by the PMOD-model. To our best knowledge, this is the first model which is validated for both short-term and long-term irradiations in terms of temperature and thus demonstrates that temperatures can be accurately predicted within the thermal damage regime. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Models for changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, ocean geochemistry and circulation during the late Pleistocene

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naqvi, S.W.A.; SenGupta, R.

    the regionally varying responses of primary productivity and water circulation to the climatic changes. For example, given the unique seasonally varying circulation pattern and an acute deficiency in dissolved oxygen at mid-depth, the feedback mechanisms...

  12. Venus atmosphere simulated by a high-resolution general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugimoto, Norihiko

    2016-07-01

    An atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) for Venus on the basis of AFES (AGCM For the Earth Simulator) have been developed (e.g., Sugimoto et al., 2014a) and a very high-resolution simulation is performed. The highest resolution of the model is T319L120; 960 times 480 horizontal grids (grid intervals are about 40 km) with 120 vertical layers (layer intervals are about 1 km). In the model, the atmosphere is dry and forced by the solar heating with the diurnal and semi-diurnal components. The infrared radiative process is simplified by adopting Newtonian cooling approximation. The temperature is relaxed to a prescribed horizontally uniform temperature distribution, in which a layer with almost neutral static stability observed in the Venus atmosphere presents. A fast zonal wind in a solid-body rotation is given as the initial state. Starting from this idealized superrotation, the model atmosphere reaches a quasi-equilibrium state within 1 Earth year and this state is stably maintained for more than 10 Earth years. The zonal-mean zonal flow with weak midlatitude jets has almost constant velocity of 120 m/s in latitudes between 45°S and 45°N at the cloud top levels, which agrees very well with observations. In the cloud layer, baroclinic waves develop continuously at midlatitudes and generate Rossby-type waves at the cloud top (Sugimoto et al., 2014b). At the polar region, warm polar vortex zonally surrounded by a cold latitude band (cold collar) is well reproduced (Ando et al., 2016). As for horizontal kinetic energy spectra, divergent component is broadly (k>10) larger than rotational component compared with that on Earth (Kashimura et al., in preparation). Finally, recent results for thermal tides and small-scale waves will be shown in the presentation. Sugimoto, N. et al. (2014a), Baroclinic modes in the Venus atmosphere simulated by GCM, Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets, Vol. 119, p1950-1968. Sugimoto, N. et al. (2014b), Waves in a Venus general

  13. EXPERIMENTS OF A REDUCED GRID IN LASG/IAP WORLD OCEAN GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS (OGCMs)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Xiying; LIU Hailong; ZHANG Xuehong; YU Rucong

    2006-01-01

    Due to the decrease in grid size associated with the convergence of meridians toward the poles in spherical coordinates, the time steps in many global climate models with finite-difference method are restricted to be unpleasantly small. To overcome the problem, a reduced grid is introduced to LASG/IAP world ocean general circulation models. The reduced grid is implemented successfully in the coarser resolutions version model L30T63 at first. Then, it is carried out in the improved version model LICOM with finer resolutions. In the experiment with model L30T63, under time step unchanged though, execution time per single model run is shortened significantly owing to the decrease of grid number and filtering execution in high latitudes. Results from additional experiments with L30T63 show that the time step of integration can be quadrupled at most in reduced grid with refinement ratio 3. In the experiment with model LICOM and with the model's original time step unchanged, the model covered area is extended to the whole globe from its original case with the grid point of North Pole considered as an isolated island and the results of experiment are shown to be acceptable.

  14. An Unstructured Numerical Model to Study Wind-Driven Circulation Patterns in a Managed Coastal Mediterranean Wetland: The Vaccarès Lagoon System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivier Boutron

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The spatiotemporal structure of wind-driven circulation patterns and associated water exchanges can drive important bio-hydrodynamic interactions in shallow lagoons. The Vaccarès lagoon system is a complex shallow hydrosystem located in the central part of the Rhône Delta (France. It is internationally recognized as part of a biosphere reserve within the framework of UNESCO’s Man and Biosphere Programme, and as a RAMSAR site. Due to its frequent occurrence in this area, and considering the shallowness of the Vaccarès lagoon system, wind is assumed to play a major role in the hydrodynamic and biological processes. In this study, a hydrodynamic model was developed to investigate the structure of wind-driven circulations in the Vaccarès lagoon system, to provide insights into their role in transport and water exchange processes. The implementation and assessment (calibration and validation of the model is presented first. Simulations were then performed for two typical steady wind conditions and for one measured unsteady wind event. The results illustrate the influence of the complex geometry of the Vaccarès lagoon system on the wind-driven circulations, and the differences observed between the different sub-lagoons in this system. The differences in wind-induced water exchanges between these sub-lagoons are also discussed.

  15. The hypothetical world of CoMFA and model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oprea, T.I. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

    1996-12-31

    CoMFA is a technique used to establish the three-dimensional similarity of molecular structures, in relationship to a target property. Because the risk of chance correlation is high, validation is required for all CoMFA models. The following validation steps should be performed: the choice of alignment rules (superimposition and conformer criteria) has to use experimental data when available, or different (alternate) hypotheses; statistical methods (e.g., cross-validation with randomized groups), have to emphasize simplicity, robustness, predictivity and explanatory power. When several CoMFA-QSAR models on similar targets and/or structures are available, qualitative lateral validation can be applied. This meta-analysis for CoMFA models offers a broader perspective on the similarities and differences between compared biological targets, with potential applications in rational drug design [e.g., selectivity, efficacy] and environmental toxicology. Examples that focus on validation of CoMFA models include the following steroid-binding proteins: aromatase, the estrogen and the androgen receptors, a monoclonal antibody against progesterone and two steroid binding globulins.

  16. Complex mean circulation over the inner shelf south of Martha's Vineyard revealed by observations and a high-resolution model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganju, Neil K.; Lentz, Steven J.; Kirincich, Anthony R.; Farrar, J. Thomas

    2011-01-01

    Inner-shelf circulation is governed by the interaction between tides, baroclinic forcing, winds, waves, and frictional losses; the mean circulation ultimately governs exchange between the coast and ocean. In some cases, oscillatory tidal currents interact with bathymetric features to generate a tidally rectified flow. Recent observational and modeling efforts in an overlapping domain centered on the Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory (MVCO) provided an opportunity to investigate the spatial and temporal complexity of circulation on the inner shelf. ADCP and surface radar observations revealed a mean circulation pattern that was highly variable in the alongshore and cross-shore directions. Nested modeling incrementally improved representation of the mean circulation as grid resolution increased and indicated tidal rectification as the generation mechanism of a counter-clockwise gyre near the MVCO. The loss of model skill with decreasing resolution is attributed to insufficient representation of the bathymetric gradients (Δh/h), which is important for representing nonlinear interactions between currents and bathymetry. The modeled momentum balance was characterized by large spatial variability of the pressure gradient and horizontal advection terms over short distances, suggesting that observed inner-shelf momentum balances may be confounded. Given the available observational and modeling data, this work defines the spatially variable mean circulation and its formation mechanism—tidal rectification—and illustrates the importance of model resolution for resolving circulation and constituent exchange near the coast. The results of this study have implications for future observational and modeling studies near the MVCO and other inner-shelf locations with alongshore bathymetric variability.

  17. The Validation of Climate Models: The Development of Essential Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rood, R. B.

    2011-12-01

    It is possible from both a scientific and philosophical perspective to state that climate models cannot be validated. However, with the realization that the scientific investigation of climate change is as much a subject of politics as of science, maintaining this formal notion of "validation" has significant consequences. For example, it relegates the bulk of work of many climate scientists to an exercise of model evaluation that can be construed as ill-posed. Even within the science community this motivates criticism of climate modeling as an exercise of weak scientific practice. Stepping outside of the science community, statements that validation is impossible are used in political arguments to discredit the scientific investigation of climate, to maintain doubt about projections of climate change, and hence, to prohibit the development of public policy to regulate the emissions of greenhouse gases. With the acceptance of the impossibility of validation, scientists often state that the credibility of models can be established through an evaluation process. A robust evaluation process leads to the quantitative description of the modeling system against a standard set of measures. If this process is standardized as institutional practice, then this provides a measure of model performance from one modeling release to the next. It is argued, here, that such a robust and standardized evaluation of climate models can be structured and quantified as "validation." Arguments about the nuanced meaning of validation and evaluation are a subject about which the climate modeling community needs to develop a standard. It does injustice to a body of science-based knowledge to maintain that validation is "impossible." Rather than following such a premise, which immediately devalues the knowledge base, it is more useful to develop a systematic, standardized approach to robust, appropriate validation. This stands to represent the complexity of the Earth's climate and its

  18. 3-d Circulation In The PalamÓs Canyon: Observations and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pascual, A.; Jordi, A.; Marcos, M.; Ruiz, S.; Basterretxea, G.; Gomis, D.; Emelianov, M.; Martín, J.; Font, J.; Tintoré, J.; Palanques, A.

    Along the northeast Spanish coast the Northern current interacts with abrupt canyon topography. Previous studies in the region have shown some evidences of flow modi- fications (in terms of meanders, eddies, shelf-slope exchanges) that are likely related to the presence of the canyons. Moreover, these canyons are known to be areas of en- hanced biological production compared to the surrounding shelf. However, the physi- cal mechanisms governing this increased activity are poorly understood since most of the existing samplings are too coarse for an accurate inference of dynamical variables. In this work we present results from an intensive field study (CAÑONES II) in the Palamós Canyon, which took place between 24 and 31 May 2001. An area of 80x70 km2 was covered by CTD stations separated 4 km just over the canyon (a subdomain of 25x40 km2) and 8 km elsewhere. The data were interpolated onto a regular grid and the quasi-geostrophic 3D circulation was computed. The horizontal geostrophic velocity is in good agreement with ADCP and current-meter observations. Down- welling occurs in the upstream wall of the canyon whereas vertical upward velocities of up to 50 m/day are obtained in the canyon axis. The relative importance of strati- fication and relative vorticity in the Rossby-Ertel potential vorticity is also examined along selected isopycnals, in order to understand the physical mechanisms governing the observed circulation. Particle trajectories were also computed from the 3D velocity field (assumed to be stationary) with the aim to understand the possible implications of these physical features on the marine ecosystem. All the inferred circulation features have been compared with numerical simulations obtained from a primitive equation coastal ocean model initialized with the in situ observed data.

  19. Importance of Computer Model Validation in Pyroprocessing Technology Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Y. E.; Li, Hui; Yim, M. S. [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    In this research, we developed a plan for experimental validation of one of the computer models developed for ER process modeling, i. e., the ERAD code. Several candidate surrogate materials are selected for the experiment considering the chemical and physical properties. Molten salt-based pyroprocessing technology is being examined internationally as an alternative to treat spent nuclear fuel over aqueous technology. The central process in pyroprocessing is electrorefining(ER) which separates uranium from transuranic elements and fission products present in spent nuclear fuel. ER is a widely used process in the minerals industry to purify impure metals. Studies of ER by using actual spent nuclear fuel materials are problematic for both technical and political reasons. Therefore, the initial effort for ER process optimization is made by using computer models. A number of models have been developed for this purpose. But as validation of these models is incomplete and often times problematic, the simulation results from these models are inherently uncertain.

  20. Ocean regional circulation model sensitizes to resolution of the lateral boundary conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pham, Van Sy; Hwang, Jin Hwan

    2017-04-01

    Dynamical downscaling with nested regional oceanographic models is an effective approach for forecasting operationally coastal weather and projecting long term climate on the ocean. Nesting procedures deliver the unwanted in dynamic downscaling due to the differences of numerical grid sizes and updating steps. Therefore, such unavoidable errors restrict the application of the Ocean Regional Circulation Model (ORCMs) in both short-term forecasts and long-term projections. The current work identifies the effects of errors induced by computational limitations during nesting procedures on the downscaled results of the ORCMs. The errors are quantitatively evaluated for each error source and its characteristics by the Big-Brother Experiments (BBE). The BBE separates identified errors from each other and quantitatively assess the amount of uncertainties employing the same model to simulate for both nesting and nested model. Here, we focus on discussing errors resulting from two main matters associated with nesting procedures. They should be the spatial grids' differences and the temporal updating steps. After the diverse cases from separately running of the BBE, a Taylor diagram was adopted to analyze the results and suggest an optimization intern of grid size and updating period and domain sizes. Key words: lateral boundary condition, error, ocean regional circulation model, Big-Brother Experiment. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by grants from the Korean Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries entitled "Development of integrated estuarine management system" and a National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) Grant (No. 2015R1A5A 7037372) funded by MSIP of Korea. The authors thank the Integrated Research Institute of Construction and Environmental Engineering of Seoul National University for administrative support.

  1. The turbulent viscosity models and their experimental validation; Les modeles de viscosite turbulente et leur validation experimentale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-12-31

    This workshop on turbulent viscosity models and on their experimental validation was organized by the `convection` section of the French society of thermal engineers. From the 9 papers presented during this workshop, 8 deal with the modeling of turbulent flows inside combustion chambers, turbo-machineries or in other energy-related applications, and have been selected for ETDE. (J.S.)

  2. Exploring Secondary Students' Epistemological Features Depending on the Evaluation Levels of the Group Model on Blood Circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Shinyoung; Kim, Heui-Baik

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to identify the epistemological features and model qualities depending on model evaluation levels and to explore the reasoning process behind high-level evaluation through small group interaction about blood circulation. Nine groups of three to four students in the eighth grade participated in the modeling practice.…

  3. Developing Novel Therapeutic Approaches in Small Cell Lung Carcinoma Using Genetically Engineered Mouse Models and Human Circulating Tumor Cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-01

    Using Genetically Engineered Mouse Models and Human Circulating Tumor Cells PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Jeffrey Engelman MD PhD CONTRACTING...SUBTITLE Developiing Novel Therapeutic Approaches in Small Cell Lung 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Carcinoma Using Genetically Engineered Mouse Models and 5b...biomarkers. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Small cell lung cancer (SCLC), Genetically engineered mouse model (GEMM), BH3 mimetic, TORC inhibitor, Apoptosis

  4. Aluminium in an ocean general circulation model compared with the West Atlantic Geotraces cruises

    CERN Document Server

    van Hulten, Marco; Tagliabue, Alessandro; Dutay, Jean-Claude; Gehlen, Marion; de Baar, Hein J W; Middag, Rob

    2012-01-01

    A model of aluminium has been developed and implemented in an Ocean General Circulation Model (NEMO-PISCES). In the model, aluminium enters the ocean by means of dust deposition. The internal oceanic processes are described by advection, mixing and reversible scavenging. The model has been evaluated against a number of selected high-quality datasets covering much of the world ocean, especially those from the West Atlantic Geotraces cruises of 2010 and 2011. Generally, the model results are in fair agreement with the observations. However, the model does not describe well the vertical distribution of dissolved Al in the North Atlantic Ocean. The model may require changes in the physical forcing and the vertical dependency of the sinking velocity of biogenic silica to account for other discrepancies. To explore the model behaviour, sensitivity experiments have been performed, in which we changed the key parameters of the scavenging process as well as the input of aluminium into the ocean. This resulted in a bet...

  5. An evaluation of the North Sea circulation in global and regional models relevant for ecosystem simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pätsch, Johannes; Burchard, Hans; Dieterich, Christian; Gräwe, Ulf; Gröger, Matthias; Mathis, Moritz; Kapitza, Hartmut; Bersch, Manfred; Moll, Andreas; Pohlmann, Thomas; Su, Jian; Ho-Hagemann, Ha T. M.; Schulz, Achim; Elizalde, Alberto; Eden, Carsten

    2017-08-01

    Simulations of the North Sea circulation by the global ocean model MPI-OM and the regional ocean models GETM, HAMSOM, NEMO, TRIM are compared against each other and with observational data for the period 1998-2009. The aim of the study is to evaluate the quality of the simulations in particular with respect to their suitability to drive biogeochemical shelf sea models. Our results demonstrate the benefit of the global model to avoid the specification of lateral open boundary conditions. Due to its stretched grid configuration, which provides a higher grid resolution at the Northwest European Shelf, the global model is able to reproduce the large-scale features, such as the water mass distribution and the thermal stratification in the central and northern North Sea, qualitatively similar to the regional models. The simulation of temperature and salinity near the coast however, shows large biases in almost all models because of the coarse meteorological forcing and too coarse vertical resolutions. The simulation of the Baltic Sea exchange and the spread of freshwater along the Norwegian coast proved difficult for all models except GETM, which reproduces impacts of the Baltic Sea outflow reasonably well.

  6. Nonequilibrium stage modelling of dividing wall columns and experimental validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiller, Christoph; Buck, Christina; Ehlers, Christoph; Fieg, Georg

    2010-11-01

    Dealing with complex process units like dividing wall columns pushes the focus on the determination of suitable modelling approaches. For this purpose a nonequilibrium stage model is developed. The successful validation is achieved by an experimental investigation of fatty alcohol mixtures under vacuum condition at pilot scale. Aim is the recovery of high purity products. The proposed model predicts the product qualities and temperature profiles very well.

  7. Human surrogate models of neuropathic pain: validity and limitations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binder, Andreas

    2016-02-01

    Human surrogate models of neuropathic pain in healthy subjects are used to study symptoms, signs, and the hypothesized underlying mechanisms. Although different models are available, different spontaneous and evoked symptoms and signs are inducible; 2 key questions need to be answered: are human surrogate models conceptually valid, ie, do they share the sensory phenotype of neuropathic pain states, and are they sufficiently reliable to allow consistent translational research?

  8. Contact Modelling in Resistance Welding, Part II: Experimental Validation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Song, Quanfeng; Zhang, Wenqi; Bay, Niels

    2006-01-01

    Contact algorithms in resistance welding presented in the previous paper are experimentally validated in the present paper. In order to verify the mechanical contact algorithm, two types of experiments, i.e. sandwich upsetting of circular, cylindrical specimens and compression tests of discs...... with a solid ring projection towards a flat ring, are carried out at room temperature. The complete algorithm, involving not only the mechanical model but also the thermal and electrical models, is validated by projection welding experiments. The experimental results are in satisfactory agreement...

  9. Blast Load Simulator Experiments for Computational Model Validation: Report 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-02-01

    O’Daniel, 2016. Blast load simulator experiments for computational model validation – Report 1. ERDC/GSL TR-16-27. Vicksburg, MS: U.S. Army Engineer ...ER D C/ G SL T R- 16 -2 7 Blast Load Simulator Experiments for Computational Model Validation Report 2 G eo te ch ni ca l a nd S tr uc...Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. The U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) solves the nation’s toughest

  10. Numerical modelling 2 D and 3 D of circulating fluidized bed: application to the realization of regime diagrams; Modelisation numerique 2D et 3D de lit fluidise circulant: application a la realisation du diagramme des regimes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Begis, J.; Balzer, G.

    1997-02-01

    The numerical modelling of internal CFB boilers flows faced with complex phenomenons due to the flows un-stationariness, the heterogeneousness of the particle size distribution, and interactions between the two phases and the walls. Our study consisted in applying numerical models to the experimental configuration of cold circulating fluidized bed studied at the Cerchar. Special attention was given to the analysis of particles - wall interactions models, stemming from Jenkins (1992) and Louge`s (1994) theories, as well as the influence of the particles on fluid turbulence. In order to realize numerical simulations, we have used Eulerian two-phases flow codes developed at NHL medolif(2D), ESTET-ASTRID(3D). From different tests we have deducted that the most appropriate model for the realization of CFB`s prediction is the model taking in account the influence of particles on fluid turbulence. Then, to evaluate the validity limits of this model, we have built the regime diagram, and we have compared it with the experimental diagram. We have concluded that the simulation allows to describe the different CFB`s working regimes, and especially transitions. We have also noticed the importance of the choice of the mean diameter of the simulated particles. In this way, making a correction of the simulated particles` diameter in comparison with Sauter mean particle diameter, we obtained numerical results in good agreement with experimental data. (authors) 13 refs.

  11. Characteristics modeling for supercritical circulating fluidized bed boiler working in oxy-combustion technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balicki, Adrian; Bartela, Łukasz

    2014-06-01

    Among the technologies which allow to reduce greenhouse gas emission, mainly carbon dioxide, special attention deserves the idea of `zeroemission' technology based on boilers working in oxy-combustion technology. In the paper the results of analyses of the influence of changing two quantities, namely oxygen share in oxidant produced in the air separation unit, and oxygen share in oxidant supplied to the furnace chamber on the selected characteristics of a steam boiler including the degree of exhaust gas recirculation, boiler efficiency and adiabatic flame temperature, was examined. Due to the possibility of the integration of boiler model with carbon dioxide capture, separation and storage installation, the subject of the analysis was also to determine composition of the flue gas at the outlet of a moisture condensation installation. Required calculations were made using a model of a supercritical circulating fluidized bed boiler working in oxy-combustion technology, which was built in a commercial software and in-house codes.

  12. Effects of Southern Hemisphere Wind Changes on the Meridional Overturning Circulation in Ocean Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gent, Peter R

    2016-01-01

    Observations show that the Southern Hemisphere zonal wind stress maximum has increased significantly over the past 30 years. Eddy-resolving ocean models show that the resulting increase in the Southern Ocean mean flow meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is partially compensated by an increase in the eddy MOC. This effect can be reproduced in the non-eddy-resolving ocean component of a climate model, providing the eddy parameterization coefficient is variable and not a constant. If the coefficient is a constant, then the Southern Ocean mean MOC change is balanced by an unrealistically large change in the Atlantic Ocean MOC. Southern Ocean eddy compensation means that Southern Hemisphere winds cannot be the dominant mechanism driving midlatitude North Atlantic MOC variability.

  13. Locally-orthogonal, unstructured grid-generation for general circulation modelling on the sphere

    CERN Document Server

    Engwirda, Darren

    2016-01-01

    An algorithm for the generation of non-uniform, locally-orthogonal staggered unstructured grids on spheroidal geometries is described. This technique is designed to generate high-quality staggered Voronoi/Delaunay dual meshes appropriate for general circulation modelling on the sphere, including applications to atmospheric simulation, ocean-modelling and numerical weather predication. Using a recently developed Frontal-Delaunay refinement technique, a method for the construction of guaranteed-quality, unstructured spheroidal Delaunay triangulations is introduced. A locally-orthogonal polygonal grid, derived from the associated Voronoi diagram, is computed as the staggered dual. The initial staggered Voronoi/Delaunay tessellation is iteratively improved through hill-climbing optimisation techniques. It is shown that this approach typically produces grids with very high element quality and smooth grading characteristics, while imposing relatively low computational expense. Initial results are presented for a se...

  14. Assimilation of drifter observations in primitive equation models of midlatitude ocean circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özgökmen, Tamay M.; Molcard, Anne; Chin, Toshio M.; Piterbarg, Leonid I.; Griffa, Annalisa

    2003-07-01

    Motivated by increases in the realism of OGCMs and the number of drifting buoys in the ocean observing system, a new Lagrangian assimilation technique is implemented in an idealized, reduced-gravity configuration of the layered primitive equation model MICOM. Using an extensive set of twin experiments, the effectiveness of the Lagrangian observation operator and of a dynamical balancing technique for corrected model variables, which is based on geostrophy and mass conservation, are explored in comparison to a conventional Pseudo-Lagrangian observation operator and an implementation of the Kalman filter method. The results clearly illustrate that the Lagrangian observation operator is superior to the Pseudo-Lagrangian in the parameter range that is relevant for typical oceanic drifter observations, and that the simple dynamical balancing technique works well for midlatitude ocean circulation.

  15. Volcanic forcing improves Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Model scaling performance

    CERN Document Server

    Vyushin, D; Havlin, S; Bunde, A; Brenner, S; Vyushin, Dmitry; Zhidkov, Igor; Havlin, Shlomo; Bunde, Armin; Brenner, Stephen

    2004-01-01

    Recent Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations of the twentieth century climate, which account for anthropogenic and natural forcings, make it possible to study the origin of long-term temperature correlations found in the observed records. We study ensemble experiments performed with the NCAR PCM for 10 different historical scenarios, including no forcings, greenhouse gas, sulfate aerosol, ozone, solar, volcanic forcing and various combinations, such as it natural, anthropogenic and all forcings. We compare the scaling exponents characterizing the long-term correlations of the observed and simulated model data for 16 representative land stations and 16 sites in the Atlantic Ocean for these scenarios. We find that inclusion of volcanic forcing in the AOGCM considerably improves the PCM scaling behavior. The scenarios containing volcanic forcing are able to reproduce quite well the observed scaling exponents for the land with exponents around 0.65 independent of the station dista...

  16. Intercomparison and interpretation of surface energy fluxes in atmospheric general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randall, D. A.; Cess, R. D.; Blanchet, J. P.; Boer, G. J.; Dazlich, D. A.; Del Genio, A. D.; Deque, M.; Dymnikov, V.; Galin, V.; Ghan, S. J.

    1992-01-01

    Responses of the surface energy budgets and hydrologic cycles of 19 atmospheric general circulation models to an imposed, globally uniform sea surface temperature perturbation of 4 K were analyzed. The responses of the simulated surface energy budgets are extremely diverse and are closely linked to the responses of the simulated hydrologic cycles. The response of the net surface energy flux is not controlled by cloud effects; instead, it is determined primarily by the response of the latent heat flux. The prescribed warming of the oceans leads to major increases in the atmospheric water vapor content and the rates of evaporation and precipitation. The increased water vapor amount drastically increases the downwelling IR radiation at the earth's surface, but the amount of the change varies dramatically from one model to another.

  17. The water cycle in the general circulation model of the martian atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaposhnikov, D. S.; Rodin, A. V.; Medvedev, A. S.

    2016-03-01

    Within the numerical general-circulation model of the Martian atmosphere MAOAM (Martian Atmosphere: Observation and Modeling), we have developed the water cycle block, which is an essential component of modern general circulation models of the Martian atmosphere. The MAOAM model has a spectral dynamic core and successfully predicts the temperature regime on Mars through the use of physical parameterizations typical of both terrestrial and Martian models. We have achieved stable computation for three Martian years, while maintaining a conservative advection scheme taking into account the water-ice phase transitions, water exchange between the atmosphere and surface, and corrections for the vertical velocities of ice particles due to sedimentation. The studies show a strong dependence of the amount of water that is actively involved in the water cycle on the initial data, model temperatures, and the mechanism of water exchange between the atmosphere and the surface. The general pattern and seasonal asymmetry of the water cycle depends on the size of ice particles, the albedo, and the thermal inertia of the planet's surface. One of the modeling tasks, which results from a comparison of the model data with those of the TES experiment on board Mars Global Surveyor, is the increase in the total mass of water vapor in the model in the aphelion season and decrease in the mass of water ice clouds at the poles. The surface evaporation scheme, which takes into account the turbulent rise of water vapor, on the one hand, leads to the most complete evaporation of ice from the surface in the summer season in the northern hemisphere and, on the other hand, supersaturates the atmosphere with ice due to the vigorous evaporation, which leads to worse consistency between the amount of the precipitated atmospheric ice and the experimental data. The full evaporation of ice from the surface increases the model sensitivity to the size of the polar cap; therefore, the increase in the

  18. The Finite Element Sea Ice-Ocean Model (FESOM v.1.4: formulation of an ocean general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Q. Wang

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The Finite Element Sea Ice-Ocean Model (FESOM is the first global ocean general circulation model based on unstructured-mesh methods that has been developed for the purpose of climate research. The advantage of unstructured-mesh models is their flexible multi-resolution modelling functionality. In this study, an overview of the main features of FESOM will be given; based on sensitivity experiments a number of specific parameter choices will be explained; and directions of future developments will be outlined. It is argued that FESOM is sufficiently mature to explore the benefits of multi-resolution climate modelling and that its applications will provide information useful for the advancement of climate modelling on unstructured meshes.

  19. Validation techniques of agent based modelling for geospatial simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darvishi, M.; Ahmadi, G.

    2014-10-01

    One of the most interesting aspects of modelling and simulation study is to describe the real world phenomena that have specific properties; especially those that are in large scales and have dynamic and complex behaviours. Studying these phenomena in the laboratory is costly and in most cases it is impossible. Therefore, Miniaturization of world phenomena in the framework of a model in order to simulate the real phenomena is a reasonable and scientific approach to understand the world. Agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) is a new modelling method comprising of multiple interacting agent. They have been used in the different areas; for instance, geographic information system (GIS), biology, economics, social science and computer science. The emergence of ABM toolkits in GIS software libraries (e.g. ESRI's ArcGIS, OpenMap, GeoTools, etc) for geospatial modelling is an indication of the growing interest of users to use of special capabilities of ABMS. Since ABMS is inherently similar to human cognition, therefore it could be built easily and applicable to wide range applications than a traditional simulation. But a key challenge about ABMS is difficulty in their validation and verification. Because of frequent emergence patterns, strong dynamics in the system and the complex nature of ABMS, it is hard to validate and verify ABMS by conventional validation methods. Therefore, attempt to find appropriate validation techniques for ABM seems to be necessary. In this paper, after reviewing on Principles and Concepts of ABM for and its applications, the validation techniques and challenges of ABM validation are discussed.

  20. Validation techniques of agent based modelling for geospatial simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Darvishi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available One of the most interesting aspects of modelling and simulation study is to describe the real world phenomena that have specific properties; especially those that are in large scales and have dynamic and complex behaviours. Studying these phenomena in the laboratory is costly and in most cases it is impossible. Therefore, Miniaturization of world phenomena in the framework of a model in order to simulate the real phenomena is a reasonable and scientific approach to understand the world. Agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS is a new modelling method comprising of multiple interacting agent. They have been used in the different areas; for instance, geographic information system (GIS, biology, economics, social science and computer science. The emergence of ABM toolkits in GIS software libraries (e.g. ESRI’s ArcGIS, OpenMap, GeoTools, etc for geospatial modelling is an indication of the growing interest of users to use of special capabilities of ABMS. Since ABMS is inherently similar to human cognition, therefore it could be built easily and applicable to wide range applications than a traditional simulation. But a key challenge about ABMS is difficulty in their validation and verification. Because of frequent emergence patterns, strong dynamics in the system and the complex nature of ABMS, it is hard to validate and verify ABMS by conventional validation methods. Therefore, attempt to find appropriate validation techniques for ABM seems to be necessary. In this paper, after reviewing on Principles and Concepts of ABM for and its applications, the validation techniques and challenges of ABM validation are discussed.

  1. MODEL-BASED VALIDATION AND VERIFICATION OF ANOMALIES IN LEGISLATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vjeran Strahonja

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available An anomaly in legislation is absence of completeness, consistency and other desirable properties, caused by different semantic, syntactic or pragmatic reasons. In general, the detection of anomalies in legislation comprises validation and verification. The basic idea of research, as presented in this paper, is modelling legislation by capturing domain knowledge of legislation and specifying it in a generic way by using commonly agreed and understandable modelling concepts of the Unified Modelling Language (UML. Models of legislation enable to understand the system better, support the detection of anomalies and help to improve the quality of legislation by validation and verification. By implementing model-based approach, the object of validation and verification moves from legislation to its model. The business domain of legislation has two distinct aspects: a structural or static aspect (functionality, business data etc., and a behavioural or dynamic part (states, transitions, activities, sequences etc.. Because anomalism can occur on two different levels, on the level of a model, or on the level of legislation itself, a framework for validation and verification of legal regulation and its model is discussed. The presented framework includes some significant types of semantic and syntactic anomalies. Some ideas for assessment of pragmatic anomalies of models were found in the field of software quality metrics. Thus pragmatic features and attributes can be determined that could be relevant for evaluation purposes of models. Based on analogue standards for the evaluation of software, a qualitative and quantitative scale can be applied to determine the value of some feature for a specific model.

  2. External model validation of binary clinical risk prediction models in cardiovascular and thoracic surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hickey, Graeme L; Blackstone, Eugene H

    2016-08-01

    Clinical risk-prediction models serve an important role in healthcare. They are used for clinical decision-making and measuring the performance of healthcare providers. To establish confidence in a model, external model validation is imperative. When designing such an external model validation study, thought must be given to patient selection, risk factor and outcome definitions, missing data, and the transparent reporting of the analysis. In addition, there are a number of statistical methods available for external model validation. Execution of a rigorous external validation study rests in proper study design, application of suitable statistical methods, and transparent reporting.

  3. Validation of spectral gas radiation models under oxyfuel conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Becher, Johann Valentin

    2013-05-15

    Combustion of hydrocarbon fuels with pure oxygen results in a different flue gas composition than combustion with air. Standard computational-fluid-dynamics (CFD) spectral gas radiation models for air combustion are therefore out of their validity range in oxyfuel combustion. This thesis provides a common spectral basis for the validation of new spectral models. A literature review about fundamental gas radiation theory, spectral modeling and experimental methods provides the reader with a basic understanding of the topic. In the first results section, this thesis validates detailed spectral models with high resolution spectral measurements in a gas cell with the aim of recommending one model as the best benchmark model. In the second results section, spectral measurements from a turbulent natural gas flame - as an example for a technical combustion process - are compared to simulated spectra based on measured gas atmospheres. The third results section compares simplified spectral models to the benchmark model recommended in the first results section and gives a ranking of the proposed models based on their accuracy. A concluding section gives recommendations for the selection and further development of simplified spectral radiation models. Gas cell transmissivity spectra in the spectral range of 2.4 - 5.4 {mu}m of water vapor and carbon dioxide in the temperature range from 727 C to 1500 C and at different concentrations were compared in the first results section at a nominal resolution of 32 cm{sup -1} to line-by-line models from different databases, two statistical-narrow-band models and the exponential-wide-band model. The two statistical-narrow-band models EM2C and RADCAL showed good agreement with a maximal band transmissivity deviation of 3 %. The exponential-wide-band model showed a deviation of 6 %. The new line-by-line database HITEMP2010 had the lowest band transmissivity deviation of 2.2% and was therefore recommended as a reference model for the

  4. Total kinetic energy in four global eddying ocean circulation models and over 5000 current meter records

    KAUST Repository

    Scott, Robert B.

    2010-01-01

    We compare the total kinetic energy (TKE) in four global eddying ocean circulation simulations with a global dataset of over 5000, quality controlled, moored current meter records. At individual mooring sites, there was considerable scatter between models and observations that was greater than estimated statistical uncertainty. Averaging over all current meter records in various depth ranges, all four models had mean TKE within a factor of two of observations above 3500. m, and within a factor of three below 3500. m. With the exception of observations between 20 and 100. m, the models tended to straddle the observations. However, individual models had clear biases. The free running (no data assimilation) model biases were largest below 2000. m. Idealized simulations revealed that the parameterized bottom boundary layer tidal currents were not likely the source of the problem, but that reducing quadratic bottom drag coefficient may improve the fit with deep observations. Data assimilation clearly improved the model-observation comparison, especially below 2000. m, despite assimilated data existing mostly above this depth and only south of 47°N. Different diagnostics revealed different aspects of the comparison, though in general the models appeared to be in an eddying-regime with TKE that compared reasonably well with observations. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  5. Glacial marine carbon cycle sensitivities to Atlantic ocean circulation reorganization by coupled climate model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. O. Chikamoto

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available A series of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM marine carbon cycle sensitivity experiments is conducted to test the effect of different physical processes, as simulated by two atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM experiments, on the atmospheric pCO2. One AOGCM solution exhibits an increase in North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW formation, whereas the other mimics an increase in Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW associated with a weaker NADW. Due to enhanced gas solubility associated with lower sea surface temperature, both experiments generate a reduction of atmospheric pCO2 by about 20–23 ppm. However, neither a weakening of NADW nor an increase of AABW formation causes a large atmospheric pCO2 change. A marked enhancement in AABW formation is required to represent the reconstructed vertical gradient of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC during LGM conditions. The efficiency of Southern Ocean nutrient utilization reduces in response to an enhanced AABW formation, which counteracts the circulation-induced ocean carbon uptake.

  6. Climate Dynamics and Global Change: Temperature, Precipitation, and Circulation in GFDL Aqua-Planet Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinh, T.; Fueglistaler, S.

    2015-12-01

    Numerical experiments are carried out using the GFDL General Circulation Model to assess climate sensitivity associated with CO2 increase and surface warming. This work is motivated by the calculation by Cess and Potter (1988, JGR), who proposed that surface temperature perturbations may be used as a surrogate for climate change induced by CO2 increase.We compare climatic changes due to CO2 increase in slab-ocean simulations with changes forced by surface warming in prescribed-surface-temperature simulations with fixed CO2 (Cess-type experiments). We found that slab-ocean and Cess-type experiments give the same rates of change per degree surface warming for the global atmosphere temperature and circulation strength. However, the global precipitation increases almost twice as slowly in slab-ocean runs (1.5%/K) when compared to Cess-type runs (2.8%/K). Therefore, we caution that Cess-type experiments may not be suitable for studying global precipitation change under climate change.

  7. Low-level jets in the NASA Ames Mars general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, M. M.; Haberle, R. M.; Barnes, J. R.; Murphy, J. R.; Schaeffer, J.

    1997-03-01

    Previous simulations of the Martian atmosphere have shown how topography acts to confine the low-level Hadley cell flow into intense jets on the eastern flanks of Tharsis and Syrtis Major. We now conduct detailed studies of these jets using the NASA Ames Mars general circulation model (MGCM). The structure of the flow is found to be sensitive to local topography as well as large-scale diabatic heating patterns, consistent with terrestrial studies, and MGCM studies carried out with simplified topography. The summer subtropical zonal winds associated with the Hadley circulation also form spatially confined intense jet cores. Diurnal variations in heating affect jet structure in three distinct ways. Global tides interact with the jets, resulting in effects such as the two reinforcing each other at the summer subtropics near midday, leading to high winds and surface stresses at this time. Slope winds act to change the character of the jets during the course of a day, especially at Syrtis Major and the Hellas basin, where slopes are large. Vertical mixing acts to decrease low-level winds during the late afternoon. The sensitivity of the results to atmospheric dust loading is examined. We finally show how a decrease in boundary layer height due to dust loading actually augments mid-afternoon jet strength near the surface. The resulting increase in maximum surface stress indicates that this is a positive feedback to dust lifting.

  8. Experimental Validation of a Thermoelastic Model for SMA Hybrid Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Travis L.

    2001-01-01

    This study presents results from experimental validation of a recently developed model for predicting the thermomechanical behavior of shape memory alloy hybrid composite (SMAHC) structures, composite structures with an embedded SMA constituent. The model captures the material nonlinearity of the material system with temperature and is capable of modeling constrained, restrained, or free recovery behavior from experimental measurement of fundamental engineering properties. A brief description of the model and analysis procedures is given, followed by an overview of a parallel effort to fabricate and characterize the material system of SMAHC specimens. Static and dynamic experimental configurations for the SMAHC specimens are described and experimental results for thermal post-buckling and random response are presented. Excellent agreement is achieved between the measured and predicted results, fully validating the theoretical model for constrained recovery behavior of SMAHC structures.

  9. Seasonal sensitivity of the eddy-driven jet to tropospheric heating in an idealized atmospheric general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGraw, Marie C.

    A dry dynamical core is used to investigate the seasonal sensitivity of the circulation to two idealized thermal forcings--a tropical upper tropospheric forcing, and a polar lower tropospheric forcing. The circulation is modified using a set of perpetual simulations to simulate each month of the year, while the thermal forcings are held constant. The circu- lation responses to tropical warming and polar warming are studied separately, and then the response to the simultaneously applied forcings is analyzed. Finally, the seasonality of the internal variability of the circulation is explored as a possible mechanism to explain the seasonality of the responses. The primary results of these experiments are: 1) There is a seasonal sensitivity in the circulation response to both the tropical and polar forcings. 2) The jet position response to each forcing is greatest in the transition seasons, and the jet speed response exhibits a seasonal sensitivity to both forcings although the seasonal sensi- tivities are not the same. 3) The circulation response is nonlinear in the transition seasons, but approximately linear in the summer and winter months. 4) The internal variability of the unforced circulation exhibits a seasonal sensitivity that may partly explain the seasonal sensitivity of the forced response. The seasonality of the internal variability of daily MERRA reanalysis data is compared to that of the model, demonstrating that the broad conclusions drawn from this idealized modeling study may be useful for understanding the jet response to anthropogenic forcing.

  10. System Modeling, Validation, and Design of Shape Controllers for NSTX

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, M. L.; Humphreys, D. A.; Eidietis, N. W.; Leuer, J. A.; Welander, A. S.; Kolemen, E.

    2011-10-01

    Modeling of the linearized control response of plasma shape and position has become fairly routine in the last several years. However, such response models rely on the input of accurate values of model parameters such as conductor and diagnostic sensor geometry and conductor resistivity or resistance. Confidence in use of such a model therefore requires that some effort be spent in validating that the model has been correctly constructed. We describe the process of constructing and validating a response model for NSTX plasma shape and position control, and subsequent use of that model for the development of shape and position controllers. The model development, validation, and control design processes are all integrated within a Matlab-based toolset known as TokSys. The control design method described emphasizes use of so-called decoupling control, in which combinations of coil current modifications are designed to modify only one control parameter at a time, without perturbing any other control parameter values. Work supported by US DOE under DE-FG02-99ER54522 and DE-AC02-09CH11466.

  11. Progress in Geant4 Electromagnetic Physics Modelling and Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apostolakis, J.; Asai, M.; Bagulya, A.; Brown, J. M. C.; Burkhardt, H.; Chikuma, N.; Cortes-Giraldo, M. A.; Elles, S.; Grichine, V.; Guatelli, S.; Incerti, S.; Ivanchenko, V. N.; Jacquemier, J.; Kadri, O.; Maire, M.; Pandola, L.; Sawkey, D.; Toshito, T.; Urban, L.; Yamashita, T.

    2015-12-01

    In this work we report on recent improvements in the electromagnetic (EM) physics models of Geant4 and new validations of EM physics. Improvements have been made in models of the photoelectric effect, Compton scattering, gamma conversion to electron and muon pairs, fluctuations of energy loss, multiple scattering, synchrotron radiation, and high energy positron annihilation. The results of these developments are included in the new Geant4 version 10.1 and in patches to previous versions 9.6 and 10.0 that are planned to be used for production for run-2 at LHC. The Geant4 validation suite for EM physics has been extended and new validation results are shown in this work. In particular, the effect of gamma-nuclear interactions on EM shower shape at LHC energies is discussed.

  12. Progress in Geant4 Electromagnetic Physics Modelling and Validation

    CERN Document Server

    Apostolakis, J; Bagulya, A; Brown, J M C; Burkhardt, H; Chikuma, N; Cortes-Giraldo, M A; Elles, S; Grichine, V; Guatelli, S; Incerti, S; Ivanchenko, V N; Jacquemier, J; Kadri, O; Maire, M; Pandola, L; Sawkey, D; Toshito, T; Urban, L; Yamashita, T

    2015-01-01

    In this work we report on recent improvements in the electromagnetic (EM) physics models of Geant4 and new validations of EM physics. Improvements have been made in models of the photoelectric effect, Compton scattering, gamma conversion to electron and muon pairs, fluctuations of energy loss, multiple scattering, synchrotron radiation, and high energy positron annihilation. The results of these developments are included in the new Geant4 version 10.1 and in patches to previous versions 9.6 and 10.0 that are planned to be used for production for run-2 at LHC. The Geant4 validation suite for EM physics has been extended and new validation results are shown in this work. In particular, the effect of gamma-nuclear interactions on EM shower shape at LHC energies is discussed.

  13. Progress in Geant4 Electromagnetic Physics Modelling and Validation

    CERN Document Server

    Apostolakis, J; Bagulya, A; Brown, J M C; Burkhardt, H; Chikuma, N; Cortes-Giraldo, M A; Elles, S; Grichine, V; Guatelli, S; Incerti, S; Ivanchenko, V N; Jacquemier, J; Kadri, O; Maire, M; Pandola, L; Sawkey, D; Toshito, T; Urban, L; Yamashita, T

    2015-01-01

    In this work we report on recent improvements in the electromagnetic (EM) physics models of Geant4 and new validations of EM physics. Improvements have been made in models of the photoelectric effect, Compton scattering, gamma conversion to electron and muon pairs, fluctuations of energy loss, multiple scattering, synchrotron radiation, and high energy positron annihilation. The results of these developments are included in the new Geant4 version 10.1 and in patches to previous versions 9.6 and 10.0 that are planned to be used for production for run-2 at LHC. The Geant4 validation suite for EM physics has been extended and new validation results are shown in this work. In particular, the effect of gamma-nuclear interactions on EM shower shape at LHC energies is discussed.

  14. Cross-validation model assessment for modular networks

    CERN Document Server

    Kawamoto, Tatsuro

    2016-01-01

    Model assessment of the stochastic block model is a crucial step in identification of modular structures in networks. Although this has typically been done according to the principle that a parsimonious model with a large marginal likelihood or a short description length should be selected, another principle is that a model with a small prediction error should be selected. We show that the leave-one-out cross-validation estimate of the prediction error can be efficiently obtained using belief propagation for sparse networks. Furthermore, the relations among the objectives for model assessment enable us to determine the exact cause of overfitting.

  15. Model Validation for Shipboard Power Cables Using Scattering Parameters%Model Validation for Shipboard Power Cables Using Scattering Parameters

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lukas Graber; Diomar Infante; Michael Steurer; William W. Brey

    2011-01-01

    Careful analysis of transients in shipboard power systems is important to achieve long life times of the com ponents in future all-electric ships. In order to accomplish results with high accuracy, it is recommended to validate cable models as they have significant influence on the amplitude and frequency spectrum of voltage transients. The authors propose comparison of model and measurement using scattering parameters. They can be easily obtained from measurement and simulation and deliver broadband information about the accuracy of the model. The measurement can be performed using a vector network analyzer. The process to extract scattering parameters from simulation models is explained in detail. Three different simulation models of a 5 kV XLPE power cable have been validated. The chosen approach delivers an efficient tool to quickly estimate the quality of a model.

  16. Validation of statistical models for creep rupture by parametric analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolton, J., E-mail: john.bolton@uwclub.net [65, Fisher Ave., Rugby, Warks CV22 5HW (United Kingdom)

    2012-01-15

    Statistical analysis is an efficient method for the optimisation of any candidate mathematical model of creep rupture data, and for the comparative ranking of competing models. However, when a series of candidate models has been examined and the best of the series has been identified, there is no statistical criterion to determine whether a yet more accurate model might be devised. Hence there remains some uncertainty that the best of any series examined is sufficiently accurate to be considered reliable as a basis for extrapolation. This paper proposes that models should be validated primarily by parametric graphical comparison to rupture data and rupture gradient data. It proposes that no mathematical model should be considered reliable for extrapolation unless the visible divergence between model and data is so small as to leave no apparent scope for further reduction. This study is based on the data for a 12% Cr alloy steel used in BS PD6605:1998 to exemplify its recommended statistical analysis procedure. The models considered in this paper include a) a relatively simple model, b) the PD6605 recommended model and c) a more accurate model of somewhat greater complexity. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The paper discusses the validation of creep rupture models derived from statistical analysis. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer It demonstrates that models can be satisfactorily validated by a visual-graphic comparison of models to data. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method proposed utilises test data both as conventional rupture stress and as rupture stress gradient. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The approach is shown to be more reliable than a well-established and widely used method (BS PD6605).

  17. Modeling of NO and N{sub 2}O emissions from biomass circulating fluidized bed combustors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, H.; Gibbs, B.M. [Leeds Univ., Leeds (United Kingdom). Dept. of Fuel and Energy

    2002-07-01

    In order to correctly model biomass combustion in a circulating fluidized bed (CFB) combustor, it is necessary to examine the four main stages in the combustion of biomass particles. These include drying, devolatilization, volatile combustion and char combustion in a CFB combustor. This paper presents a newly developed model for nitric oxide (NO) and nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O) emissions from biomass-fired CFB combustors. A typical woody biomass of pinewood chips was selected for the model parameters. The drying and devolatilization of biomass particles was modeled with limited rates according to woody biomass fuels. The partition of fuel nitrogen between volatiles and char was chosen for pinewood based on available data from literature. It was assumed that the volatile nitrogen was composed of ammonia (NH{sub 3}), hydrogen cyanide (HCN) and nitrogen (N{sub 2}). The model included 25 chemical reactions, of which 20 belonged to global fuel-nitrogen reaction kinetics. A 12 MW CFB boiler was used to apply the model. Results were compared with experimental values as well as data from literature. The reaction between NO and char was found to be the key reaction that determines NO emissions. The catalytic effect of bed materials on the oxidation of NH{sub 3} and the the homogeneous reaction of NH{sub 3} with nitric oxide was also significant. 25 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs.

  18. Experimental and Analytical Modeling of Natural Circulation and Forced Circulation BWRs : Thermal-Hydraulic, Core-Wide, and Regional Stability Phenomena

    OpenAIRE

    2006-01-01

    Currently, 434 nuclear power plants are in operation worldwide. 21% of them are known as Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs). These BWRs have pumps that cool their reactor cores (the forced circulation BWRs). In the design of new BWRs, ways to cool the core by a natural circulation flow, without pumps, also called natural circulation BWRs, are being considered. A possible disadvantage of natural circulation BWRs might be their susceptibility to instabilities, which could then lead to both flow and ...

  19. Validation of a tuber blight (Phytophthora infestans) prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potato tuber blight caused by Phytophthora infestans accounts for significant losses in storage. There is limited published quantitative data on predicting tuber blight. We validated a tuber blight prediction model developed in New York with cultivars Allegany, NY 101, and Katahdin using independent...

  20. Technical Note: Calibration and validation of geophysical observation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salama, M.S.; van der Velde, R.; van der Woerd, H.J.; Kromkamp, J.C.; Philippart, C.J.M.; Joseph, A.T.; O'Neill, P.E.; Lang, R.H.; Gish, T.; Werdell, P.J.; Su, Z.

    2012-01-01

    We present a method to calibrate and validate observational models that interrelate remotely sensed energy fluxes to geophysical variables of land and water surfaces. Coincident sets of remote sensing observation of visible and microwave radiations and geophysical data are assembled and subdivided i

  1. Validation of Geant4 hadronic physics models at intermediate energies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, Sunanda; Geant4 Hadronic Group

    2010-04-01

    GEANT4 provides a number of physics models at intermediate energies (corresponding to incident momenta in the range 1-20 GeV/c). Recently, these models have been validated with existing data from a number of experiments: (a) inclusive proton and neutron production with a variety of beams (π-, π+, p) at different energies between 1 and 9 GeV/c on a number of nuclear targets (from beryllium to uranium); (2) inclusive pion/kaon/proton production from 14.6 GeV/c proton beams on nuclear targets (from beryllium to gold); (3) inclusive pion production from pion beams between 3-13 GeV/c on a number of nuclear targets (from beryllium to lead). The results of simulation/data comparison for different GEANT4 models are discussed in the context of validating the models and determining their usage in physics lists for high energy application. Due to the increasing number of validations becoming available, and the requirement that they be done at regular intervals corresponding to the GEANT4 release schedule, automated methods of validation are being developed.

  2. Empirical validation data sets for double skin facade models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kalyanova, Olena; Jensen, Rasmus Lund; Heiselberg, Per

    2008-01-01

    During recent years application of double skin facades (DSF) has greatly increased. However, successful application depends heavily on reliable and validated models for simulation of the DSF performance and this in turn requires access to high quality experimental data. Three sets of accurate emp...

  3. Validation of Models : Statistical Techniques and Data Availability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    1999-01-01

    This paper shows which statistical techniques can be used to validate simulation models, depending on which real-life data are available. Concerning this availability three situations are distinguished (i) no data, (ii) only output data, and (iii) both input and output data. In case (i) - no real

  4. Model validation studies of solar systems, Phase III. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, L.J.; Winn, C.B.

    1978-12-01

    Results obtained from a validation study of the TRNSYS, SIMSHAC, and SOLCOST solar system simulation and design are presented. Also included are comparisons between the FCHART and SOLCOST solar system design programs and some changes that were made to the SOLCOST program. Finally, results obtained from the analysis of several solar radiation models are presented. Separate abstracts were prepared for ten papers.

  5. Improving Perovskite Solar Cells: Insights From a Validated Device Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sherkar, Tejas S.; Momblona, Cristina; Gil-Escrig, Lidon; Bolink, Henk J.; Koster, L. Jan Anton

    2017-01-01

    To improve the efficiency of existing perovskite solar cells (PSCs), a detailed understanding of the underlying device physics during their operation is essential. Here, a device model has been developed and validated that describes the operation of PSCs and quantitatively explains the role of conta

  6. ID Model Construction and Validation: A Multiple Intelligences Case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tracey, Monica W.; Richey, Rita C.

    2007-01-01

    This is a report of a developmental research study that aimed to construct and validate an instructional design (ID) model that incorporates the theory and practice of multiple intelligences (MI). The study consisted of three phases. In phase one, the theoretical foundations of multiple Intelligences and ID were examined to guide the development…

  7. Requirements Validation: Execution of UML Models with CPN Tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Machado, Ricardo J.; Lassen, Kristian Bisgaard; Oliveira, Sérgio

    2007-01-01

    Requirements validation is a critical task in any engineering project. The confrontation of stakeholders with static requirements models is not enough, since stakeholders with non-computer science education are not able to discover all the inter-dependencies between the elicited requirements. Eve...... requirements, where the system to be built must explicitly support the interaction between people within a pervasive cooperative workflow execution. A case study from a real project is used to illustrate the proposed approach.......Requirements validation is a critical task in any engineering project. The confrontation of stakeholders with static requirements models is not enough, since stakeholders with non-computer science education are not able to discover all the inter-dependencies between the elicited requirements. Even...... with simple unified modelling language (UML) requirements models, it is not easy for the development team to get confidence on the stakeholders' requirements validation. This paper describes an approach, based on the construction of executable interactive prototypes, to support the validation of workflow...

  8. Bibliometric Modeling Processes and the Empirical Validity of Lotka's Law.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Paul Travis

    1989-01-01

    Examines the elements involved in fitting a bibliometric model to empirical data, proposes a consistent methodology for applying Lotka's law, and presents the results of an empirical test of the methodology. The results are discussed in terms of the validity of Lotka's law and the suitability of the proposed methodology. (49 references) (CLB)

  9. Improving Perovskite Solar Cells: Insights From a Validated Device Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sherkar, Tejas S.; Momblona, Cristina; Gil-Escrig, Lidon; Bolink, Henk J.; Koster, L. Jan Anton

    2017-01-01

    To improve the efficiency of existing perovskite solar cells (PSCs), a detailed understanding of the underlying device physics during their operation is essential. Here, a device model has been developed and validated that describes the operation of PSCs and quantitatively explains the role of conta

  10. Validating firn compaction model with remote sensing data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, S. B.; Stenseng, Lars; Sørensen, Louise Sandberg

    A comprehensive understanding of firn processes is of outmost importance, when estimating present and future changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Especially, when remote sensing altimetry is used to assess the state of ice sheets and their contribution to global sea level rise, firn compaction...... models have been shown to be a key component. Now, remote sensing data can also be used to validate the firn models. Radar penetrating the upper part of the firn column in the interior part of Greenland shows a clear layering. The observed layers from the radar data can be used as an in-situ validation...... correction relative to the changes in the elevation of the surface observed with remote sensing altimetry? What model time resolution is necessary to resolved the observed layering? What model refinements are necessary to give better estimates of the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet from...

  11. Protection from lethal challenge in a neonatal mouse model by circulating recombinant form coxsackievirus A16 vaccine candidates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jingliang; Chang, Junliang; Liu, Xin; Yang, Jiaxin; Guo, Haoran; Wei, Wei

    2014-01-01

    Circulating coxsackievirus A16 (CA16) is a major cause of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in South-east Asia. At present, there is no vaccine against CA16. Pathogenic animal models that are sensitive to diverse circulating CA16 viruses would be desirable for vaccine development and evaluation. In this study, we isolated and characterized several circulating CA16 viruses from recent HFMD patients. These CA16 viruses currently circulating in humans were highly pathogenic in a newly developed neonatal mouse model; we also observed and analysed the pathogenesis of representative circulating recombinant form CA16 viruses. An inactivated CA16 vaccine candidate, formulated with alum adjuvant and containing submicrogram quantities of viral proteins, protected neonatal mice born to immunized female mice from lethal-dose challenge with a series of CA16 viruses. Further analysis of humoral immunity showed that antibody elicited from both the immunized dams and their pups could neutralize various lethal viruses by a cytopathic effect in vitro. Moreover, viral titres and loads in the tissues of challenged pups in the vaccine group were far lower than those in the control group, and some were undetectable. This lethal-challenge model using pathogenic CA16 viruses and the vaccine candidates that mediated protection in this model could be useful tools for the future development and evaluation of CA16 vaccines. PMID:24496826

  12. Thrust Removal Scheme for the FAST-MAC Circulation Control Model Tested in the National Transonic Facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, David T.; Milholen, William E., II; Jones, Gregory S.; Goodliff, Scott L.

    2014-01-01

    A second wind tunnel test of the FAST-MAC circulation control semi-span model was recently completed in the National Transonic Facility at the NASA Langley Research Center. The model allowed independent control of four circulation control plenums producing a high momentum jet from a blowing slot near the wing trailing edge that was directed over a 15% chord simple-hinged flap. The model was configured for transonic testing of the cruise configuration with 0deg flap deflection to determine the potential for drag reduction with the circulation control blowing. Encouraging results from analysis of wing surface pressures suggested that the circulation control blowing was effective in reducing the transonic drag on the configuration, however this could not be quantified until the thrust generated by the blowing slot was correctly removed from the force and moment balance data. This paper will present the thrust removal methodology used for the FAST-MAC circulation control model and describe the experimental measurements and techniques used to develop the methodology. A discussion on the impact to the force and moment data as a result of removing the thrust from the blowing slot will also be presented for the cruise configuration, where at some Mach and Reynolds number conditions, the thrust-removed corrected data showed that a drag reduction was realized as a consequence of the blowing.

  13. Validation of a Model for Ice Formation around Finned Tubes

    OpenAIRE

    Kamal A. R. Ismai; Fatima A. M. Lino

    2016-01-01

    Phase change materials although attaractive option for thermal storage applications its main drawback is the slow thermal response during charging and discharging processes due to their low thermal conductivity. The present study validates a model developed by the authors some years ago on radial fins as a method to meliorate the thermal performance of PCM in horizontal storage system. The developed model for the radial finned tube is based on pure conduction, the enthalpy approach and was di...

  14. Toward metrics and model validation in web-site QEM

    OpenAIRE

    Olsina Santos, Luis Antonio; Pons, Claudia; Rossi, Gustavo Héctor

    2000-01-01

    In this work, a conceptual framework and the associated strategies for metrics and model validation are analyzed regarding website measurement and evaluation. Particularly, we have conducted three case studies in different Web domains in order to evaluate and compare the quality of sites. For such an end the quantitative, model-based methodology, so-called Web-site QEM (Quality Evaluation Methodology), was utilized. In the assessment process of sites, definition of attributes and measurements...

  15. Validating firn compaction model with remote sensing data

    OpenAIRE

    2011-01-01

    A comprehensive understanding of firn processes is of outmost importance, when estimating present and future changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Especially, when remote sensing altimetry is used to assess the state of ice sheets and their contribution to global sea level rise, firn compaction models have been shown to be a key component. Now, remote sensing data can also be used to validate the firn models. Radar penetrating the upper part of the firn column in the interior part of Greenland ...

  16. Global environmental effects of impact-generated aerosols: Results from a general circulation model, revision 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Covey, Curt; Ghan, Steven J.; Walton, John J.; Weissman, Paul R.

    1989-01-01

    Interception of sunlight by the high altitude worldwide dust cloud generated by impact of a large asteroid or comet would lead to substantial land surface cooling, according to our three-dimensional atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). This result is qualitatively similar to conclusions drawn from an earlier study that employed a one-dimensional atmospheric model, but in the GCM simulation the heat capacity of the oceans substantially mitigates land surface cooling, an effect that one-dimensional models cannot quantify. On the other hand, the low heat capacity of the GCM's land surface allows temperatures to drop more rapidly in the initial stage of cooling than in the one-dimensional model study. These two differences between three-dimensional and one-dimensional model simulations were noted previously in studies of nuclear winter; GCM-simulated climatic changes in the Alvarez-inspired scenario of asteroid/comet winter, however, are more severe than in nuclear winter because the assumed aerosol amount is large enough to intercept all sunlight falling on earth. Impacts of smaller objects could also lead to dramatic, though less severe, climatic changes, according to our GCM. Our conclusion is that it is difficult to imagine an asteroid or comet impact leading to anything approaching complete global freezing, but quite reasonable to assume that impacts at the Alvarez level, or even smaller, dramatically alter the climate in at least a patchy sense.

  17. Evaluation of rainfall simulations over West Africa in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 global circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akinsanola, A. A.; Ajayi, V. O.; Adejare, A. T.; Adeyeri, O. E.; Gbode, I. E.; Ogunjobi, K. O.; Nikulin, G.; Abolude, A. T.

    2017-03-01

    This study presents evaluation of the ability of Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4) driven by nine global circulation models (GCMs), to skilfully reproduce the key features of rainfall climatology over West Africa for the period of 1980-2005. The seasonal climatology and annual cycle of the RCA4 simulations were assessed over three homogenous subregions of West Africa (Guinea coast, Savannah, and Sahel) and evaluated using observed precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Furthermore, the model output was evaluated using a wide range of statistical measures. The interseasonal and interannual variability of the RCA4 were further assessed over the subregions and the whole of the West Africa domain. Results indicate that the RCA4 captures the spatial and interseasonal rainfall pattern adequately but exhibits a weak performance over the Guinea coast. Findings from the interannual rainfall variability indicate that the model performance is better over the larger West Africa domain than the subregions. The largest difference across the RCA4 simulated annual rainfall was found in the Sahel. Result from the Mann-Kendall test showed no significant trend for the 1980-2005 period in annual rainfall either in GPCP observation data or in the model simulations over West Africa. In many aspects, the RCA4 simulation driven by the HadGEM2-ES perform best over the region. The use of the multimodel ensemble mean has resulted to the improved representation of rainfall characteristics over the study domain.

  18. Improving groundwater predictions utilizing seasonal precipitation forecasts from general circulation models forced with sea surface temperature forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almanaseer, Naser; Sankarasubramanian, A.; Bales, Jerad

    2014-01-01

    Recent studies have found a significant association between climatic variability and basin hydroclimatology, particularly groundwater levels, over the southeast United States. The research reported in this paper evaluates the potential in developing 6-month-ahead groundwater-level forecasts based on the precipitation forecasts from ECHAM 4.5 General Circulation Model Forced with Sea Surface Temperature forecasts. Ten groundwater wells and nine streamgauges from the USGS Groundwater Climate Response Network and Hydro-Climatic Data Network were selected to represent groundwater and surface water flows, respectively, having minimal anthropogenic influences within the Flint River Basin in Georgia, United States. The writers employ two low-dimensional models [principle component regression (PCR) and canonical correlation analysis (CCA)] for predicting groundwater and streamflow at both seasonal and monthly timescales. Three modeling schemes are considered at the beginning of January to predict winter (January, February, and March) and spring (April, May, and June) streamflow and groundwater for the selected sites within the Flint River Basin. The first scheme (model 1) is a null model and is developed using PCR for every streamflow and groundwater site using previous 3-month observations (October, November, and December) available at that particular site as predictors. Modeling schemes 2 and 3 are developed using PCR and CCA, respectively, to evaluate the role of precipitation forecasts in improving monthly and seasonal groundwater predictions. Modeling scheme 3, which employs a CCA approach, is developed for each site by considering observed groundwater levels from nearby sites as predictands. The performance of these three schemes is evaluated using two metrics (correlation coefficient and relative RMS error) by developing groundwater-level forecasts based on leave-five-out cross-validation. Results from the research reported in this paper show that using

  19. The sensitivity of latent heat flux to the air humidity approximations used in ocean circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, W. Timothy; Niiler, Pearn P.

    1990-01-01

    In deriving the surface latent heat flux with the bulk formula for the thermal forcing of some ocean circulation models, two approximations are commonly made to bypass the use of atmospheric humidity in the formula. The first assumes a constant relative humidity, and the second supposes that the sea-air humidity difference varies linearly with the saturation humidity at sea surface temperature. Using climatological fields derived from the Marine Deck and long time series from ocean weather stations, the errors introduced by these two assumptions are examined. It is shown that the errors reach above 100 W/sq m over western boundary currents and 50 W/sq m over the tropical ocean. The two approximations also introduce erroneous seasonal and spatial variabilities with magnitudes over 50 percent of the observed variabilities.

  20. Oceanic circulation models help to predict global biogeography of pelagic yellow-bellied sea snake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brischoux, François; Cotté, Cédric; Lillywhite, Harvey B; Bailleul, Frédéric; Lalire, Maxime; Gaspar, Philippe

    2016-08-01

    It is well recognized that most marine vertebrates, and especially tetrapods, precisely orient and actively move in apparently homogeneous oceanic environments. Here, we investigate the presumptive role of oceanic currents in biogeographic patterns observed in a secondarily marine tetrapod, the yellow-bellied sea snake (Hydrophis [Pelamis] platurus). State-of-the-art world ocean circulation models show how H. platurus, the only pelagic species of sea snake, can potentially exploit oceanic currents to disperse and maintain population mixing between localities that spread over two-thirds of the Earth's circumference. The very close association of these snakes with surface currents seems to provide a highly efficient dispersal mechanism that allowed this species to range extensively and relatively quickly well beyond the central Indo-Pacific area, the centre of origin, abundance and diversity of sea snakes. Our results further suggest that the pan-oceanic population of this species must be extraordinarily large. © 2016 The Author(s).

  1. Effect of cloud-radiation feedback on the climate of a general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, J.; Sud, Y.

    1981-01-01

    Experiments are described which show significant changes in the simulated large-scale dynamical circulation of a global model. Fixed clouds acting as zonally asymmetric radiative heat sources increase the generation of eddy available potential energy (EAPE) and the energy's conversion to eddy kinetic energy. Generation of EAPE by net radiative heating increases by 50% (0.11 W/sq m) for the fixed cloud experiment. The increase caused by the stationary component is much larger (approximately 100%), but it is partially compensated by a decrease caused by the transient component. A substantial increase is found in the variances of the planetary-scale stationary waves and the medium-scale waves of 2.7 day period. Although the sea surface temperatures are prescribed identically in both integrations, the changes in evaporation and precipitation are found to be much larger over the oceans than over the land.

  2. Dense water formation and BiOS-induced variability in the Adriatic Sea simulated using an ocean regional circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunić, Natalija; Vilibić, Ivica; Šepić, Jadranka; Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence

    2016-08-01

    A performance analysis of the NEMOMED8 ocean regional circulation model was undertaken for the Adriatic Sea during the period of 1961-2012, focusing on two mechanisms, dense water formation (DWF) and the Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System (BiOS), which drive interannual and decadal variability in the basin. The model was verified based on sea surface temperature and sea surface height satellite measurements and long-term in situ observations from several key areas. The model qualitatively reproduces basin-scale processes: thermohaline-driven cyclonic circulation and freshwater surface outflow along the western Adriatic coast, dense water dynamics, and the inflow of Ionian and Levantine waters to the Adriatic. Positive temperature and salinity biases are reported; the latter are particularly large along the eastern part of the basin, presumably because of the inappropriate introduction of eastern Adriatic rivers into the model. The highest warm temperature biases in the vertical direction were found in dense-water-collecting depressions in the Adriatic, indicating either an inappropriate quantification of DWF processes or temperature overestimation of modelled dense water. The decadal variability in the thermohaline properties is reproduced better than interannual variability, which is considerably underestimated. The DWF rates are qualitatively well reproduced by the model, being larger when preconditioned by higher basin-wide salinities. Anticyclonic circulation in the northern Ionian Sea was modelled only during the Eastern Mediterranean Transient. No other reversals of circulation that could be linked to BiOS-driven changes were modelled.

  3. The Roles of Land and Orography on Precipitation and Ocean Circulation in Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maroon, Elizabeth A.

    In this thesis, coupled and atmosphere-only global climate models are used to examine two large-scale climate asymmetries: the zonal asymmetry of tropical precipitation about the equator and the preference for sinking in the North Atlantic Ocean, but not in the North Pacific Ocean. The examination of these two climate asymmetries is performed using models of differing complexity. The first half of this dissertation discusses the influence of land on the distribution of tropical precipitation in idealized geometry models. A continent is added to the Northern Hemisphere subtropics of two aquaplanet models; annual mean insolation is prescribed and the albedo and longitudinal extent of the continent are varied. One of the models, GRaM, has gray-radiation physics with moist dynamics, while the other model, GFDL's AM2.1, has comprehensive physics. In the GRaM model, the pattern of the precipitation response is mostly related to decreased evaporation due to the now unsaturated surface. As the albedo of land is increased, precipitation shifts southward away from the hemisphere with less absorbed energy. In the AM2.1 model, there is a zonally-varying response in tropical precipitation due to the addition of land, but this response is not rubust in simulations that include a seasonal cycle of insolation. As albedo over land is increased, precipitation shifts southward zonally, just as in GRaM. When the width of the continent is increased, tropical precipitation shifts toward the continent, which indicates that continental width plays an important role in setting the distribution of tropical atmospheric overturning circulations. The second half of this dissertation examines the influence of Rocky Mountain orography on the location of Northern Hemisphere sinking of the oceanic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). Warren (1983) found that there is greater transport of salt into the high latitude North Atlantic than into the North Pacific, allowing water to sink in the

  4. Validation of models with constant bias: an applied approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvador Medina-Peralta

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective. This paper presents extensions to the statistical validation method based on the procedure of Freese when a model shows constant bias (CB in its predictions and illustrate the method with data from a new mechanistic model that predict weight gain in cattle. Materials and methods. The extensions were the hypothesis tests and maximum anticipated error for the alternative approach, and the confidence interval for a quantile of the distribution of errors. Results. The model evaluated showed CB, once the CB is removed and with a confidence level of 95%, the magnitude of the error does not exceed 0.575 kg. Therefore, the validated model can be used to predict the daily weight gain of cattle, although it will require an adjustment in its structure based on the presence of CB to increase the accuracy of its forecasts. Conclusions. The confidence interval for the 1-α quantile of the distribution of errors after correcting the constant bias, allows determining the top limit for the magnitude of the error of prediction and use it to evaluate the evolution of the model in the forecasting of the system. The confidence interval approach to validate a model is more informative than the hypothesis tests for the same purpose.

  5. Validity of the Bersohn–Zewail model beyond justification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Jakob; Henriksen, Niels Engholm; Møller, Klaus Braagaard

    2012-01-01

    The absorption of probe pulses in ultrafast pump–probe experiments can be determined from the Bersohn–Zewail (BZ) model. The model relies on classical mechanics to describe the dynamics of the nuclei in the excited electronic state prepared by the ultrashort pump pulse. The BZ model provides...... excellent agreement between the classical trajectory and the average position of the excited state wave packet. By investigating the approximations connecting the nuclear dynamics described by quantum mechanics and the BZ model, we conclude that this agreement goes far beyond the validity of the individual...

  6. Experimentally validated finite element model of electrocaloric multilayer ceramic structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, N. A. S., E-mail: nadia.smith@npl.co.uk, E-mail: maciej.rokosz@npl.co.uk, E-mail: tatiana.correia@npl.co.uk; Correia, T. M., E-mail: nadia.smith@npl.co.uk, E-mail: maciej.rokosz@npl.co.uk, E-mail: tatiana.correia@npl.co.uk [National Physical Laboratory, Hampton Road, TW11 0LW Middlesex (United Kingdom); Rokosz, M. K., E-mail: nadia.smith@npl.co.uk, E-mail: maciej.rokosz@npl.co.uk, E-mail: tatiana.correia@npl.co.uk [National Physical Laboratory, Hampton Road, TW11 0LW Middlesex (United Kingdom); Department of Materials, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom)

    2014-07-28

    A novel finite element model to simulate the electrocaloric response of a multilayer ceramic capacitor (MLCC) under real environment and operational conditions has been developed. The two-dimensional transient conductive heat transfer model presented includes the electrocaloric effect as a source term, as well as accounting for radiative and convective effects. The model has been validated with experimental data obtained from the direct imaging of MLCC transient temperature variation under application of an electric field. The good agreement between simulated and experimental data, suggests that the novel experimental direct measurement methodology and the finite element model could be used to support the design of optimised electrocaloric units and operating conditions.

  7. Simulation of Lake Victoria Circulation Patterns Using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyamweya, Chrispine; Desjardins, Christopher; Sigurdsson, Sven; Tomasson, Tumi; Taabu-Munyaho, Anthony; Sitoki, Lewis; Stefansson, Gunnar

    2016-01-01

    Lake Victoria provides important ecosystem services including transport, water for domestic and industrial uses and fisheries to about 33 million inhabitants in three East African countries. The lake plays an important role in modulating regional climate. Its thermodynamics and hydrodynamics are also influenced by prevailing climatic and weather conditions on diel, seasonal and annual scales. However, information on water temperature and circulation in the lake is limited in space and time. We use a Regional Oceanographic Model System (ROMS) to simulate these processes from 1st January 2000 to 31st December 2014. The model is based on real bathymetry, river runoff and atmospheric forcing data using the bulk flux algorithm. Simulations show that the water column exhibits annual cycles of thermo-stratification (September-May) and mixing (June-August). Surface water currents take different patterns ranging from a lake-wide northward flow to gyres that vary in size and number. An under flow exists that leads to the formation of upwelling and downwelling regions. Current velocities are highest at the center of the lake and on the western inshore waters indicating enhanced water circulation in those areas. However, there is little exchange of water between the major gulfs (especially Nyanza) and the open lake, a factor that could be responsible for the different water quality reported in those regions. Findings of the present study enhance understanding of the physical processes (temperature and currents) that have an effect on diel, seasonal, and annual variations in stratification, vertical mixing, inshore-offshore exchanges and fluxes of nutrients that ultimately influence the biotic distribution and trophic structure. For instance information on areas/timing of upwelling and vertical mixing obtained from this study will help predict locations/seasons of high primary production and ultimately fisheries productivity in Lake Victoria.

  8. Atmospheric circulation processes contributing to a multidecadal variation in reconstructed and modeled Indian monsoon precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qianru; Hu, Qi

    2015-01-01

    analysis of the recently reconstructed gridded May-September total precipitation in the Indian monsoon region for the past half millennium discloses significant variations at multidecadal timescales. Meanwhile, paleo-climate modeling outputs from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 4.0 show similar multidecadal variations in the monsoon precipitation. One of those variations at the frequency of 40-50 years per cycle is examined in this study. Major results show that this variation is a product of the processes in that the meridional gradient of the atmospheric enthalpy is strengthened by radiation loss in the high-latitude and polar region. Driven by this gradient and associated baroclinicity in the atmosphere, more heat/energy is generated in the tropical and subtropical (monsoon) region and transported poleward. This transport relaxes the meridional enthalpy gradient and, subsequently, the need for heat production in the monsoon region. The multidecadal timescale of these processes results from atmospheric circulation-radiation interactions and the inefficiency in generation of kinetic energy from the potential energy in the atmosphere to drive the eddies that transport heat poleward. This inefficiency creates a time delay between the meridional gradient of the enthalpy and the poleward transport. The monsoon precipitation variation lags that in the meridional gradient of enthalpy but leads that of the poleward heat transport. This phase relationship, and underlining chasing process by the transport of heat to the need for it driven by the meridional enthalpy gradient, sustains this multidecadal variation. This mechanism suggests that atmospheric circulation processes can contribute to multidecadal timescale variations. Interactions of these processes with other forcing, such as sea surface temperature or solar irradiance anomalies, can result in resonant or suppressed variations in the Indian monsoon precipitation.

  9. Modeling the effect of Causeways on Circulation in the Banana River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saberi, A.; Weaver, R. J.

    2015-12-01

    The Indian River Lagoon (IRL) is a restricted estuary along the east coast of Florida. Although Banana River, a 50 km long sub-basin of IRL, has an outlet to the ocean through the Port Canaveral locks, the locks remain closed when there is no passing vessel. The lack of direct ocean connection results in limited circulation, long flushing time and poor water quality. Existence of the causeways limits the circulation even more. In this study, the impact of the causeways on flushing time is studied. This study also examines the extent to which constructing a low crested weir adjacent to Port Canaveral can improve flushing in this region. ADCIRC 2DDI is forced with meteorological inputs as well as tides to simulate the hydrodynamic properties of the study area and determine the 2D depth-averaged velocity field for four separate cases: Existing System with and without consideration of the causeways, and modified system (adding a weir near port Canaveral) with and without consideration of the causeways. Passive particles are placed in Banana River, and their movement is tracked using a Lagrangian Particle Tracking Model (LPTM). Transport timescales are then computed, and residence time contours as well as pathlines of selected particles are plotted. Results indicate that the narrow raised pathway section of the causeways acts as a plate which diverts the flow direction and generates eddies in the downstream which causes the particles in the vicinity of the causeways remain in the domain for a longer duration. There is a longer residence time for the case in which the causeways are considered. The results with the added weir suggest a noticeable improvement in flushing time and residence time even for the case in which the causeways are considered in the model.

  10. Wind driven general circulation of the Mediterranean Sea simulated with a Spectral Element Ocean Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molcard, A.; Pinardi, N.; Iskandarani, M.; Haidvogel, D. B.

    2002-05-01

    This work is an attempt to simulate the Mediterranean Sea general circulation with a Spectral Finite Element Model. This numerical technique associates the geometrical flexibility of the finite elements for the proper coastline definition with the precision offered by spectral methods. The model is reduced gravity and we study the wind-driven ocean response in order to explain the large scale sub-basin gyres and their variability. The study period goes from January 1987 to December 1993 and two forcing data sets are used. The effect of wind variability in space and time is analyzed and the relationship between wind stress curl and ocean response is stressed. Some of the main permanent structures of the general circulation (Gulf of Lions cyclonic gyre, Rhodes gyre, Gulf of Syrte anticylone) are shown to be induced by permanent wind stress curl structures. The magnitude and spatial variability of the wind is important in determining the appearance or disappearance of some gyres (Tyrrhenian anticyclonic gyre, Balearic anticyclonic gyre, Ionian cyclonic gyre). An EOF analysis of the seasonal variability indicates that the weakening and strengthening of the Levantine basin boundary currents is a major component of the seasonal cycle in the basin. The important discovery is that seasonal and interannual variability peak at the same spatial scales in the ocean response and that the interannual variability includes the change in amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle in the sub-basin scale gyres and boundary currents. The Coriolis term in the vorticity balance seems to be responsible for the weakening of anticyclonic structures and their total disappearance when they are close to a boundary. The process of adjustment to winds produces a train of coastally trapped gravity waves which travel around the eastern and western basins, respectively in approximately 6 months. This corresponds to a phase velocity for the wave of about 1 m/s, comparable to an average velocity of

  11. Simulation of Lake Victoria Circulation Patterns Using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chrispine Nyamweya

    Full Text Available Lake Victoria provides important ecosystem services including transport, water for domestic and industrial uses and fisheries to about 33 million inhabitants in three East African countries. The lake plays an important role in modulating regional climate. Its thermodynamics and hydrodynamics are also influenced by prevailing climatic and weather conditions on diel, seasonal and annual scales. However, information on water temperature and circulation in the lake is limited in space and time. We use a Regional Oceanographic Model System (ROMS to simulate these processes from 1st January 2000 to 31st December 2014. The model is based on real bathymetry, river runoff and atmospheric forcing data using the bulk flux algorithm. Simulations show that the water column exhibits annual cycles of thermo-stratification (September-May and mixing (June-August. Surface water currents take different patterns ranging from a lake-wide northward flow to gyres that vary in size and number. An under flow exists that leads to the formation of upwelling and downwelling regions. Current velocities are highest at the center of the lake and on the western inshore waters indicating enhanced water circulation in those areas. However, there is little exchange of water between the major gulfs (especially Nyanza and the open lake, a factor that could be responsible for the different water quality reported in those regions. Findings of the present study enhance understanding of the physical processes (temperature and currents that have an effect on diel, seasonal, and annual variations in stratification, vertical mixing, inshore-offshore exchanges and fluxes of nutrients that ultimately influence the biotic distribution and trophic structure. For instance information on areas/timing of upwelling and vertical mixing obtained from this study will help predict locations/seasons of high primary production and ultimately fisheries productivity in Lake Victoria.

  12. Analytical and Clinical Validation of a Digital Sequencing Panel for Quantitative, Highly Accurate Evaluation of Cell-Free Circulating Tumor DNA.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard B Lanman

    Full Text Available Next-generation sequencing of cell-free circulating solid tumor DNA addresses two challenges in contemporary cancer care. First this method of massively parallel and deep sequencing enables assessment of a comprehensive panel of genomic targets from a single sample, and second, it obviates the need for repeat invasive tissue biopsies. Digital Sequencing™ is a novel method for high-quality sequencing of circulating tumor DNA simultaneously across a comprehensive panel of over 50 cancer-related genes with a simple blood test. Here we report the analytic and clinical validation of the gene panel. Analytic sensitivity down to 0.1% mutant allele fraction is demonstrated via serial dilution studies of known samples. Near-perfect analytic specificity (> 99.9999% enables complete coverage of many genes without the false positives typically seen with traditional sequencing assays at mutant allele frequencies or fractions below 5%. We compared digital sequencing of plasma-derived cell-free DNA to tissue-based sequencing on 165 consecutive matched samples from five outside centers in patients with stage III-IV solid tumor cancers. Clinical sensitivity of plasma-derived NGS was 85.0%, comparable to 80.7% sensitivity for tissue. The assay success rate on 1,000 consecutive samples in clinical practice was 99.8%. Digital sequencing of plasma-derived DNA is indicated in advanced cancer patients to prevent repeated invasive biopsies when the initial biopsy is inadequate, unobtainable for genomic testing, or uninformative, or when the patient's cancer has progressed despite treatment. Its clinical utility is derived from reduction in the costs, complications and delays associated with invasive tissue biopsies for genomic testing.

  13. Analytical and Clinical Validation of a Digital Sequencing Panel for Quantitative, Highly Accurate Evaluation of Cell-Free Circulating Tumor DNA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zill, Oliver A.; Sebisanovic, Dragan; Lopez, Rene; Blau, Sibel; Collisson, Eric A.; Divers, Stephen G.; Hoon, Dave S. B.; Kopetz, E. Scott; Lee, Jeeyun; Nikolinakos, Petros G.; Baca, Arthur M.; Kermani, Bahram G.; Eltoukhy, Helmy; Talasaz, AmirAli

    2015-01-01

    Next-generation sequencing of cell-free circulating solid tumor DNA addresses two challenges in contemporary cancer care. First this method of massively parallel and deep sequencing enables assessment of a comprehensive panel of genomic targets from a single sample, and second, it obviates the need for repeat invasive tissue biopsies. Digital SequencingTM is a novel method for high-quality sequencing of circulating tumor DNA simultaneously across a comprehensive panel of over 50 cancer-related genes with a simple blood test. Here we report the analytic and clinical validation of the gene panel. Analytic sensitivity down to 0.1% mutant allele fraction is demonstrated via serial dilution studies of known samples. Near-perfect analytic specificity (> 99.9999%) enables complete coverage of many genes without the false positives typically seen with traditional sequencing assays at mutant allele frequencies or fractions below 5%. We compared digital sequencing of plasma-derived cell-free DNA to tissue-based sequencing on 165 consecutive matched samples from five outside centers in patients with stage III-IV solid tumor cancers. Clinical sensitivity of plasma-derived NGS was 85.0%, comparable to 80.7% sensitivity for tissue. The assay success rate on 1,000 consecutive samples in clinical practice was 99.8%. Digital sequencing of plasma-derived DNA is indicated in advanced cancer patients to prevent repeated invasive biopsies when the initial biopsy is inadequate, unobtainable for genomic testing, or uninformative, or when the patient’s cancer has progressed despite treatment. Its clinical utility is derived from reduction in the costs, complications and delays associated with invasive tissue biopsies for genomic testing. PMID:26474073

  14. Analytical and Clinical Validation of a Digital Sequencing Panel for Quantitative, Highly Accurate Evaluation of Cell-Free Circulating Tumor DNA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanman, Richard B; Mortimer, Stefanie A; Zill, Oliver A; Sebisanovic, Dragan; Lopez, Rene; Blau, Sibel; Collisson, Eric A; Divers, Stephen G; Hoon, Dave S B; Kopetz, E Scott; Lee, Jeeyun; Nikolinakos, Petros G; Baca, Arthur M; Kermani, Bahram G; Eltoukhy, Helmy; Talasaz, AmirAli

    2015-01-01

    Next-generation sequencing of cell-free circulating solid tumor DNA addresses two challenges in contemporary cancer care. First this method of massively parallel and deep sequencing enables assessment of a comprehensive panel of genomic targets from a single sample, and second, it obviates the need for repeat invasive tissue biopsies. Digital Sequencing™ is a novel method for high-quality sequencing of circulating tumor DNA simultaneously across a comprehensive panel of over 50 cancer-related genes with a simple blood test. Here we report the analytic and clinical validation of the gene panel. Analytic sensitivity down to 0.1% mutant allele fraction is demonstrated via serial dilution studies of known samples. Near-perfect analytic specificity (> 99.9999%) enables complete coverage of many genes without the false positives typically seen with traditional sequencing assays at mutant allele frequencies or fractions below 5%. We compared digital sequencing of plasma-derived cell-free DNA to tissue-based sequencing on 165 consecutive matched samples from five outside centers in patients with stage III-IV solid tumor cancers. Clinical sensitivity of plasma-derived NGS was 85.0%, comparable to 80.7% sensitivity for tissue. The assay success rate on 1,000 consecutive samples in clinical practice was 99.8%. Digital sequencing of plasma-derived DNA is indicated in advanced cancer patients to prevent repeated invasive biopsies when the initial biopsy is inadequate, unobtainable for genomic testing, or uninformative, or when the patient's cancer has progressed despite treatment. Its clinical utility is derived from reduction in the costs, complications and delays associated with invasive tissue biopsies for genomic testing.

  15. Influence of Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions on the global water isotope distribution in an atmospheric general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Tharammal

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available To understand the validity of δ18O proxy records as indicators of past temperature change, a series of experiments was conducted using an atmospheric general circulation model fitted with water isotope tracers (Community Atmosphere Model version 3.0, IsoCAM. A pre-industrial simulation was performed as the control experiment, as well as a simulation with all the boundary conditions set to Last Glacial Maximum (LGM values. Results from the pre-industrial and LGM simulations were compared to experiments in which the influence of individual boundary conditions (greenhouse gases, ice sheet albedo and topography, sea surface temperature (SST, and orbital parameters were changed each at a time to assess their individual impact. The experiments were designed in order to analyze the spatial variations of the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation (δ18Oprecip in response to individual climate factors. The change in topography (due to the change in land ice cover played a significant role in reducing the surface temperature and δ18Oprecip over North America. Exposed shelf areas and the ice sheet albedo reduced the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature and δ18Oprecip further. A global mean cooling of 4.1 °C was simulated with combined LGM boundary conditions compared to the control simulation, which was in agreement with previous experiments using the fully coupled Community Climate System Model (CCSM3. Large reductions in δ18Oprecip over the LGM ice sheets were strongly linked to the temperature decrease over them. The SST and ice sheet topography changes were responsible for most of the changes in the climate and hence the δ18Oprecip distribution among the simulations.

  16. Validation of a Model for Teaching Canine Fundoscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nibblett, Belle Marie D; Pereira, Mary Mauldin; Williamson, Julie A; Sithole, Fortune

    2015-01-01

    A validated teaching model for canine fundoscopic examination was developed to improve Day One fundoscopy skills while at the same time reducing use of teaching dogs. This novel eye model was created from a hollow plastic ball with a cutout for the pupil, a suspended 20-diopter lens, and paint and paper simulation of relevant eye structures. This eye model was mounted on a wooden stand with canine head landmarks useful in performing fundoscopy. Veterinary educators performed fundoscopy using this model and completed a survey to establish face and content validity. Subsequently, veterinary students were randomly assigned to pre-laboratory training with or without the use of this teaching model. After completion of an ophthalmology laboratory on teaching dogs, student outcome was assessed by measuring students' ability to see a symbol inserted on the simulated retina in the model. Students also completed a survey regarding their experience with the model and the laboratory. Overall, veterinary educators agreed that this eye model was well constructed and useful in teaching good fundoscopic technique. Student performance of fundoscopy was not negatively impacted by the use of the model. This novel canine model shows promise as a teaching and assessment tool for fundoscopy.

  17. An advanced computational bioheat transfer model for a human body with an embedded systemic circulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coccarelli, Alberto; Boileau, Etienne; Parthimos, Dimitris; Nithiarasu, Perumal

    2016-10-01

    In the present work, an elaborate one-dimensional thermofluid model for a human body is presented. By contrast to the existing pure conduction-/perfusion-based models, the proposed methodology couples the arterial fluid dynamics of a human body with a multi-segmental bioheat model of surrounding solid tissues. In the present configuration, arterial flow is included through a network of elastic vessels. More than a dozen solid segments are employed to represent the heat conduction in the surrounding tissues, and each segment is constituted by a multilayered circular cylinder. Such multi-layers allow flexible delineation of the geometry and incorporation of properties of different tissue types. The coupling of solid tissue and fluid models requires subdivision of the arterial circulation into large and small arteries. The heat exchange between tissues and arterial wall occurs by convection in large vessels and by perfusion in small arteries. The core region, including the heart, provides the inlet conditions for the fluid equations. In the proposed model, shivering, sweating, and perfusion changes constitute the basis of the thermoregulatory system. The equations governing flow and heat transfer in the circulatory system are solved using a locally conservative Galerkin approach, and the heat conduction in the surrounding tissues is solved using a standard implicit backward Euler method. To investigate the effectiveness of the proposed model, temperature field evolutions are monitored at different points of the arterial tree and in the surrounding tissue layers. To study the differences due to flow-induced convection effects on thermal balance, the results of the current model are compared against those of the widely used modelling methodologies. The results show that the convection significantly influences the temperature distribution of the solid tissues in the vicinity of the arteries. Thus, the inner convection has a more predominant role in the human body heat

  18. FDA 2011 process validation guidance: lifecycle compliance model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Cliff

    2014-01-01

    This article has been written as a contribution to the industry's efforts in migrating from a document-driven to a data-driven compliance mindset. A combination of target product profile, control engineering, and general sum principle techniques is presented as the basis of a simple but scalable lifecycle compliance model in support of modernized process validation. Unit operations and significant variables occupy pole position within the model, documentation requirements being treated as a derivative or consequence of the modeling process. The quality system is repositioned as a subordinate of system quality, this being defined as the integral of related "system qualities". The article represents a structured interpretation of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's 2011 Guidance for Indust