WorldWideScience

Sample records for choice models

  1. Model choice versus model criticism

    OpenAIRE

    Robert, Christian P.; Mengersen, Kerrie; Chen, Carla

    2009-01-01

    The new perspectives on ABC and Bayesian model criticisms presented in Ratmann et al.(2009) are challenging standard approaches to Bayesian model choice. We discuss here some issues arising from the authors' approach, including prior influence, model assessment and criticism, and the meaning of error in ABC.

  2. Choice of pesticide fate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The choice of a pesticide fate model at field scale is linked to the available input data. The article describes the available pesticide fate models at a field scale and the guidelines for the choice of the suitable model as function of the data input requested

  3. Social Networks and Choice Set Formation in Discrete Choice Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Wichmann

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The discrete choice literature has evolved from the analysis of a choice of a single item from a fixed choice set to the incorporation of a vast array of more complex representations of preferences and choice set formation processes into choice models. Modern discrete choice models include rich specifications of heterogeneity, multi-stage processing for choice set determination, dynamics, and other elements. However, discrete choice models still largely represent socially isolated choice processes —individuals are not affected by the preferences of choices of other individuals. There is a developing literature on the impact of social networks on preferences or the utility function in a random utility model but little examination of such processes for choice set formation. There is also emerging evidence in the marketplace of the influence of friends on choice sets and choices. In this paper we develop discrete choice models that incorporate formal social network structures into the choice set formation process in a two-stage random utility framework. We assess models where peers may affect not only the alternatives that individuals consider or include in their choice sets, but also consumption choices. We explore the properties of our models and evaluate the extent of “errors” in assessment of preferences, economic welfare measures and market shares if network effects are present, but are not accounted for in the econometric model. Our results shed light on the importance of the evaluation of peer or network effects on inclusion/exclusion of alternatives in a random utility choice framework.

  4. New Route Choice Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Otto Anker

    Artiklen præsenterer og diskuterer forskellige rutevalgsmodeller. Konklusionen er, at der for bytrafik altid bør benyttes modeller, der både er stokastiske og trafikafhængige. Af trafikafhængige modeller er det hidtil kun vist, at Successive Gennemsnits Metode (MSA) er konvergent. Stochastic User...

  5. Choice-Based Conjoint Analysis: Classification vs. Discrete Choice Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giesen, Joachim; Mueller, Klaus; Taneva, Bilyana; Zolliker, Peter

    Conjoint analysis is a family of techniques that originated in psychology and later became popular in market research. The main objective of conjoint analysis is to measure an individual's or a population's preferences on a class of options that can be described by parameters and their levels. We consider preference data obtained in choice-based conjoint analysis studies, where one observes test persons' choices on small subsets of the options. There are many ways to analyze choice-based conjoint analysis data. Here we discuss the intuition behind a classification based approach, and compare this approach to one based on statistical assumptions (discrete choice models) and to a regression approach. Our comparison on real and synthetic data indicates that the classification approach outperforms the discrete choice models.

  6. A Probit Model of Choice Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Purushottam Papatla; Lakshman Krishnamurthi

    1992-01-01

    There are many products which are repeatedly purchased by consumers. In such cases it is likely that choice history, that is the sequence of choices made in the past, as well as marketing variables affect subsequent choice decisions. Attempts to model the effects of choice history have been generally based on the inclusion of variables that represent brand loyalty and/or variety seeking behavior. In this paper we present a model of dynamic choice behavior which is more general and incorporate...

  7. Discrete Choice Models - Estimation of Passenger Traffic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Majken Vildrik

    2003-01-01

    This thesis gives an overview of what has been done in the research area of passenger transport modelling, with a focus on the model type in the core of a model complex. After a formulation of the choice problem (choice probability, the set alternatives), a method for estimation and requirements...

  8. Process and Context in Choice Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben-Akiva, Moshe; Palma, André de; McFadden, Daniel;

    2012-01-01

    . The extended choice framework includes more behavioral richness through the explicit representation of the planning process preceding an action and its dynamics and the effects of context (family, friends, and market) on the process leading to a choice, as well as the inclusion of new types of subjective data...... in choice models. We discuss the key issues involved in applying the extended framework, focusing on richer data requirements, theories, and models, and present three partial demonstrations of the proposed framework. Future research challenges include the development of more comprehensive empirical tests...

  9. Developing a Model of Occupational Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egner, Joan Roos

    1974-01-01

    Rational and non-rational decision-making models of occupational choice are described. The Blau model provides an alternative to these. This model contains an occupational set of factors and a set related to the individual. Research supporting its conceptual utility and activities illustrating its pragmatic utility are discussed. (EAK)

  10. Consumer Vehicle Choice Model Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Changzheng [ORNL; Greene, David L [ORNL

    2012-08-01

    In response to the Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions standards, automobile manufacturers will need to adopt new technologies to improve the fuel economy of their vehicles and to reduce the overall GHG emissions of their fleets. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed the Optimization Model for reducing GHGs from Automobiles (OMEGA) to estimate the costs and benefits of meeting GHG emission standards through different technology packages. However, the model does not simulate the impact that increased technology costs will have on vehicle sales or on consumer surplus. As the model documentation states, “While OMEGA incorporates functions which generally minimize the cost of meeting a specified carbon dioxide (CO2) target, it is not an economic simulation model which adjusts vehicle sales in response to the cost of the technology added to each vehicle.” Changes in the mix of vehicles sold, caused by the costs and benefits of added fuel economy technologies, could make it easier or more difficult for manufacturers to meet fuel economy and emissions standards, and impacts on consumer surplus could raise the costs or augment the benefits of the standards. Because the OMEGA model does not presently estimate such impacts, the EPA is investigating the feasibility of developing an adjunct to the OMEGA model to make such estimates. This project is an effort to develop and test a candidate model. The project statement of work spells out the key functional requirements for the new model.

  11. A stated choice model of sequential mode and destination choice behaviour for shopping trips

    OpenAIRE

    Timmermans, HJP Harry

    1996-01-01

    Stated preference and choice models currently used in urban planning are focused on predicting single choices. In this paper the intention is to extend these modelling approaches to the case of sequential choice behaviour. Design strategies and model specifications that allow one to predict sequential choice are discussed. The approach is illustrated in a study of sequential mode and destination choice behaviour for shopping trips. The research findings suggest that the proposed approach may ...

  12. Discrete choice models with multiplicative error terms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Bierlaire, Michel

    2009-01-01

    The conditional indirect utility of many random utility maximization (RUM) discrete choice models is specified as a sum of an index V depending on observables and an independent random term ε. In general, the universe of RUM consistent models is much larger, even fixing some specification of V due...

  13. Vessel Route Choice Theory and Modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shu, Y.; Daamen, W.; Ligteringen, H.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.

    2015-01-01

    A new maritime traffic model describes vessel traffic in ports and inland waterways better. In this research, vessel behavior is categorized into a tactical level (route choice) and an operational level (dynamics of vessel behavior). This new maritime traffic model comprises two parts. The route cho

  14. Comparison of probabilistic choice models in humans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radford Mark HB

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Probabilistic choice has been attracting attention in psychopharmacology and neuroeconomics. Several parametric models have been proposed for probabilistic choice; entropy model, Prelec's probability weight function, and hyperbola-like probability discounting functions. Methods In order to examine (i fitness of the probabilistic models to behavioral data, (ii relationships between the parameters and psychological processes, e.g., aversion to possible non-gain in each probabilistic choice and aversion to unpredictability, we estimated the parameters and AICc (Akaike Information Criterion with small sample correction of the probabilistic choice models by assessing the points of subjective equality at seven probability values (95%–5%. We examined both fitness of the models parametrized by utilizing AICc, and the relationships between the model parameters and equation-free parameter of aversion to possible non-gain. Results Our results have shown that (i the goodness of fitness for group data was [Entropy model>Prelec's function>General hyperbola>Simple hyperbola]; while Prelec's function best fitted individual data, (ii aversion to possible non-gain and aversion to unpredictability are distinct psychological processes. Conclusion Entropy and Prelec models can be utilized in psychopharmacological and neuroeconomic studies of risky decision-making.

  15. Essays on Discrete Choice Models

    OpenAIRE

    Kang, Joonmo

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation consists of three essays divided into chapters. In chapter 1, I analyze the identification of a simultaneous binary response model without nonadditive unobservable random terms, and suggest an estimation method. In particular, the derivatives of structural equations are identified and estimated. The identification relies on a special regressor, which enters the underlying structural equation linearly. All other exogenous variables held constant, variation on this special reg...

  16. Modeling Choice and Valuation in Decision Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loomes, Graham

    2010-01-01

    This article develops a parsimonious descriptive model of individual choice and valuation in the kinds of experiments that constitute a substantial part of the literature relating to decision making under risk and uncertainty. It suggests that many of the best known "regularities" observed in those experiments may arise from a tendency for…

  17. ROUTE CHOICE MODELLING FOR BICYCLE TRIPS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ehsan Beheshtitabar

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper intends to find out which parameters have the highest influence on bicyclists’ route-choice-behaviour and how they contribute. There are many attributes considered throughout different studies that are favoured by cyclists. The attributes are the basis for generating a function which predicts the route choice of cyclists. The paper aims at making a comparison between distance-based routes and attribute-based routes. The model for creating the bicycle route choice program is based on the network model of Norrköping, Sweden. The preferred attributes of the model each assign a weight in the cost function of the model for each link of the urban network. The algorithm of the lowest cost function route searches the shortest path in terms of assigned link costs over the whole network. For comparing the results of the cost function and the shortest route (between an origin-destination, the model has a shortest path finding algorithm between different Origin and Destination pairs implemented. It has been viewed that around 25% of all cumulative routes do not show any distance differences between the shortest path distance and attributes based solution. With the used weights of the Standard scenario, it can be seen that the trade-off between shortest distance and safety respectively comfort can be optimized, fulfilling both criteria (distance and safety/comfort.

  18. Modeling Health Insurance Choice Using the Heterogeneous Logit Model

    OpenAIRE

    Keane, Michael

    2004-01-01

    Recent advances in "simulation based inference" have made it feasible to estimate discrete choice models with several alternatives and rich patterns of consumer taste heterogeneity. These new methods have important potential application in health economics. One important application is the analysis of consumer choice behavior in insurance markets characterized by competition among several alternative insurance plans. Analysis of consumer choice behavior in insurance markets is of great intere...

  19. A variety seeking model of spatial choice-behaviour

    OpenAIRE

    Borgers, A.W.J.; Heijden, R.E.C.M. van der; H J P Timmermans

    1989-01-01

    Conventional choice-models are based on the assumption of a stable utility function. Previous studies have indicated that this assumption may be less valid for certain types of choice-behaviour. In this paper the idea of variety seeking is put forward as a possible explanation for varied choice-behaviour. A model is developed and tested in the context of recreational choice-behaviour.

  20. Equivalence of different binary choice models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostasiewicz, Katarzyna; Radosz, Andrzej; Tyc, Michał H.; Magnuszewski, Piotr; Goliczewski, Piotr

    2007-12-01

    There are various classes of models, in which individuals are assumed to make their binary choices dependent upon gains and losses, including social ones, which they evaluate for themselves. At each discrete time step t every individual has to make a binary decision: σit = +1 or σit = -1: σit+1 = f(σit,{σjt}). In different approaches, deterministic part is distinguished from a random (non-rational) part. Within impact function approach [1], the decision σit+1 at time t+1 is either σit or -σit, with probabilities F(-2Ii(σit,{σjt})) and 1-F(-2Ii(σit,{σjt})), repectively. Here Ii-impact function, F-some cumulative probability distribution function. Without randomness, the above process reduces to purely deterministic one: σit+1 = -sgn[σitIi(σit,{σjt})]. Within utility function approach [2], σit+1 = argmax{-1,+1}Uidet(σit+1,σit,{σjt})+ɛi(σit+1, where Uidet-deterministic part of utility function, ɛi-random term. In threshold model [3] (mean-field approach): P(σit+1 = +1) = P(mithchoice at time t. Detailed analysis [4] reveals particular relations between the above approaches. First, impact function and utility function models are equivalent at the level of their deterministic parts: Uidet(σit+1,σit,{σjt})≡-σit+1σitIi(σit,{σjt}), Ii(σit,{σjt})≡-σi[Uidet(+1,σit,{σjt})-Uidet(-1,σit,{σjt})]. There is also an equivalence in the probabilistic parts of the decision making process. As F(-2Ii(σit,{σjt})) = F(Uidet(σit,σit{σjt})-Uidet(-σit,σit,{σjt})), we can write σit+1 =argmax{-1,+1}Uidet(σit+1,σit,{σjt})+ɛi(σit+1, with P(ɛi(-1)-ɛi(+1)0). Therefore, three binary choice models: impact function, utility function and threshold models turn out to be equivalent.

  1. Testing the Double Jeopardy Loyalty Effect Using Discrete Choice Models

    OpenAIRE

    José M. Labeaga; Mercedes Martos-Partal; Nora Lado

    2007-01-01

    This paper attempts to validate the double jeopardy loyalty effect in a utility framework using a discrete choice approach instead of the Dirichlet model. We specify brand choice and allow for differences in brand loyalty measures across brands in two different product categories. The discrete choice model formulations include a multinomial and a latent class multinomial logit model. Using ACNielsen household scanner panel data to estimate the models, we find that market share leaders enjoy h...

  2. Rationality in a general model of choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Somdeb Lahiri

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we consider choice correspondences which may be empty-valued. We study conditions under which such choice correspondences are rational, transitively rational, partially rational, partially almost transitive rational, partially almost quasi-transitive rational. This provides fresh impetus and understanding of multi-criteria decision making.

  3. A nested recursive logit model for route choice analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mai, Tien; Frejinger, Emma; Fosgerau, Mogens

    2015-01-01

    We propose a route choice model that relaxes the independence from irrelevant alternatives property of the logit model by allowing scale parameters to be link specific. Similar to the recursive logit (RL) model proposed by Fosgerau et al. (2013), the choice of path is modeled as a sequence of lin...

  4. Children's Conceptions of Career Choice and Attainment: Model Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Kimberly A. S.; Walsh, Mary E.

    2011-01-01

    This article describes a model of children's conceptions of two key career development processes: career choice and career attainment. The model of children's understanding of career choice and attainment was constructed with developmental research and theory into children's understanding of allied phenomena such as their understanding of illness,…

  5. Hybrid Compensatory-Noncompensatory Choice Sets in Semicompensatory Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Bekhor, Shlomo; Shiftan, Yoram

    2013-01-01

    by a mathematical model that combines multinomial-response and ordered-response thresholds with a utility-based choice. The proposed model is applied to a stated preference experiment of off-campus rental apartment choices by students. Results demonstrate the applicability and feasibility of incorporating...

  6. Hybrid discrete choice models: Gained insights versus increasing effort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariel, Petr; Meyerhoff, Jürgen

    2016-10-15

    Hybrid choice models expand the standard models in discrete choice modelling by incorporating psychological factors as latent variables. They could therefore provide further insights into choice processes and underlying taste heterogeneity but the costs of estimating these models often significantly increase. This paper aims at comparing the results from a hybrid choice model and a classical random parameter logit. Point of departure for this analysis is whether researchers and practitioners should add hybrid choice models to their suite of models routinely estimated. Our comparison reveals, in line with the few prior studies, that hybrid models gain in efficiency by the inclusion of additional information. The use of one of the two proposed approaches, however, depends on the objective of the analysis. If disentangling preference heterogeneity is most important, hybrid model seems to be preferable. If the focus is on predictive power, a standard random parameter logit model might be the better choice. Finally, we give recommendations for an adequate use of hybrid choice models based on known principles of elementary scientific inference. PMID:27310534

  7. Incorporating Context Effects into a Choice Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rooderkerk, Robert P.; Van Heerde, Harald J.; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.

    2011-01-01

    The behavioral literature provides ample evidence that consumer preferences are partly driven by the context provided by the set of alternatives. Three important context effects are the compromise, attraction, and similarity effects. Because these context effects affect choices in a systematic and p

  8. Modeling adoption of innovations in agriculture using discrete choice models

    OpenAIRE

    Shefer, Daniel; Cohen, Mordechai; Bekhor, Shlomo

    2004-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the development of varieties and fertilization techniques of greenhouse tomatoes, and their spatial diffusion in the northwestern region of the Negev in Israel. The main objective of the paper is to identify the factors affecting the farmers’ decision to adopt innovations and the factors inducing the process of knowledge-diffusion in the rural region. The approach adopted is the use of discrete choice models based on random utility theory. Results of the empirical...

  9. Meta-analysis of choice set generation effects on route choice model estimates and predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    are applied for model estimation and results are compared to the ‘true model estimates’. Last, predictions from the simulation of models estimated with objective choice sets are compared to the ‘postulated predicted routes’. A meta-analytical approach allows synthesizing the effect of judgments...... for the implementation of path generation techniques, since a large number of models generate a large amount of results that are otherwise difficult to summarize and to process. Meta-analysis estimates suggest that transport modelers should implement stochastic path generation techniques with average variance of its......Large scale applications of behaviorally realistic transport models pose several challenges to transport modelers on both the demand and the supply sides. On the supply side, path-based solutions to the user assignment equilibrium problem help modelers in enhancing the route choice behavior...

  10. A probabilistic choice model based on Tsallis’ statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Taiki

    2007-12-01

    Decision under risk and uncertainty (probabilistic choice) has been attracting attention in econophysics and neuroeconomics. This paper proposes a probabilistic choice model based on a mathematical equivalence of delay and uncertainty in decision-making, and the deformed algebra developed in the Tsallis’ non-extensive thermodynamics. Furthermore, it is shown that this model can be utilized to quantify the degree of consistency in probabilistic choice in humans and animals. Future directions in the application of the model to studies in econophysics, neurofinance, neuroeconomics, and social physics are discussed.

  11. A supremum-type RESET test for binary choice models

    OpenAIRE

    Esmeralda Ramalho; Joaquim Ramalho; Jose M.R. Murteira

    2012-01-01

    This note introduces a supremum-type RESET statistic for testing the specification of binary choice regression models. A Monte Carlo simulation study reveals very promising results for the proposed statistic.

  12. Psychophysics of time perception and intertemporal choice models

    OpenAIRE

    Takahashi, Taiki; Oono, Hidemi; Radford, Mark H.B.

    2008-01-01

    Intertemporal choice and psychophysics of time perception have been attracting attention in econophysics and neuroeconomics. Several models have been proposed for intertemporal choice: exponential discounting, general hyperbolic discounting (exponential discounting with logarithmic time perception of the Weber–Fechner law, a q-exponential discount model based on Tsallis’s statistics), simple hyperbolic discounting, and Stevens’ power law–exponential discounting (exponential discounting with S...

  13. Profile construction in experimental choice designs for mixed logit models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sandor, Z; Wedel, M

    2002-01-01

    A computationally attractive model for the analysis of conjoint choice experiments is the mixed multinomial logit model, a multinomial logit model in which it is assumed that the coefficients follow a (normal) distribution across subjects. This model offers the advantage over the standard multinomia

  14. Models of Affective Decision Making: How Do Feelings Predict Choice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charpentier, Caroline J; De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel; Li, Xinyi; Roiser, Jonathan P; Sharot, Tali

    2016-06-01

    Intuitively, how you feel about potential outcomes will determine your decisions. Indeed, an implicit assumption in one of the most influential theories in psychology, prospect theory, is that feelings govern choice. Surprisingly, however, very little is known about the rules by which feelings are transformed into decisions. Here, we specified a computational model that used feelings to predict choices. We found that this model predicted choice better than existing value-based models, showing a unique contribution of feelings to decisions, over and above value. Similar to the value function in prospect theory, our feeling function showed diminished sensitivity to outcomes as value increased. However, loss aversion in choice was explained by an asymmetry in how feelings about losses and gains were weighted when making a decision, not by an asymmetry in the feelings themselves. The results provide new insights into how feelings are utilized to reach a decision. PMID:27071751

  15. Street Choice Logit Model for Visitors in Shopping Districts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ko Kawada

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we propose two models for predicting people’s activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation. The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that “have more shops, and are wider and lower”. In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive and CARS (negative. Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive.

  16. Lack of confidence in approximate Bayesian computation model choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert, Christian P; Cornuet, Jean-Marie; Marin, Jean-Michel; Pillai, Natesh S

    2011-09-13

    Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) have become an essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models. Grelaud et al. [(2009) Bayesian Anal 3:427-442] advocated the use of ABC for model choice in the specific case of Gibbs random fields, relying on an intermodel sufficiency property to show that the approximation was legitimate. We implemented ABC model choice in a wide range of phylogenetic models in the Do It Yourself-ABC (DIY-ABC) software [Cornuet et al. (2008) Bioinformatics 24:2713-2719]. We now present arguments as to why the theoretical arguments for ABC model choice are missing, because the algorithm involves an unknown loss of information induced by the use of insufficient summary statistics. The approximation error of the posterior probabilities of the models under comparison may thus be unrelated with the computational effort spent in running an ABC algorithm. We then conclude that additional empirical verifications of the performances of the ABC procedure as those available in DIY-ABC are necessary to conduct model choice. PMID:21876135

  17. Modeling Stochastic Route Choice Behaviors with Equivalent Impedance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A Logit-based route choice model is proposed to address the overlapping and scaling problems in the traditional multinomial Logit model. The nonoverlapping links are defined as a subnetwork, and its equivalent impedance is explicitly calculated in order to simply network analyzing. The overlapping links are repeatedly merged into subnetworks with Logit-based equivalent travel costs. The choice set at each intersection comprises only the virtual equivalent route without overlapping. In order to capture heterogeneity in perception errors of different sizes of networks, different scale parameters are assigned to subnetworks and they are linked to the topological relationships to avoid estimation burden. The proposed model provides an alternative method to model the stochastic route choice behaviors without the overlapping and scaling problems, and it still maintains the simple and closed-form expression from the MNL model. A link-based loading algorithm based on Dial’s algorithm is proposed to obviate route enumeration and it is suitable to be applied on large-scale networks. Finally a comparison between the proposed model and other route choice models is given by numerical examples.

  18. TAFV Alternative Fuels and Vehicles Choice Model Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, D.L.

    2001-07-27

    A model for predicting choice of alternative fuel and among alternative vehicle technologies for light-duty motor vehicles is derived. The nested multinomial logit (NML) mathematical framework is used. Calibration of the model is based on information in the existing literature and deduction based on assuming a small number of key parameters, such as the value of time and discount rates. A spreadsheet model has been developed for calibration and preliminary testing of the model.

  19. The Choice of Financing: a Theoretical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cláudio R. Lucinda

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to understand under which circumstances the employment of the services of a financial intermediary is preferred to the decentralized capital market, as well as to provide some reasons why these types of financing coexist. In order to do that, it will be developed a model in which the free-rider effects lead to profit opportunities for an intermediary when asymmetric information between lenders and borrowers is present. The analysis is extended to a multi-period setting, where the focus is ascertain if, under repeated interaction between the agents, the availability of information on payment history of a borrower alters the previous results. (Full article in Portuguese only

  20. Choices, choices, choices ...

    OpenAIRE

    Duca, Edward

    2013-01-01

    Taking the right decision can be a very challenging and daunting process. Designing a mobile phone, a make up case or even a pipe needs engineering teams to continuously make important choices frequently. http://www.um.edu.mt/think/choices-choices-choices/

  1. Psychophysics of time perception and intertemporal choice models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Taiki; Oono, Hidemi; Radford, Mark H. B.

    2008-03-01

    Intertemporal choice and psychophysics of time perception have been attracting attention in econophysics and neuroeconomics. Several models have been proposed for intertemporal choice: exponential discounting, general hyperbolic discounting (exponential discounting with logarithmic time perception of the Weber-Fechner law, a q-exponential discount model based on Tsallis's statistics), simple hyperbolic discounting, and Stevens' power law-exponential discounting (exponential discounting with Stevens' power time perception). In order to examine the fitness of the models for behavioral data, we estimated the parameters and AICc (Akaike Information Criterion with small sample correction) of the intertemporal choice models by assessing the points of subjective equality (indifference points) at seven delays. Our results have shown that the orders of the goodness-of-fit for both group and individual data were [Weber-Fechner discounting (general hyperbola) > Stevens' power law discounting > Simple hyperbolic discounting > Exponential discounting], indicating that human time perception in intertemporal choice may follow the Weber-Fechner law. Indications of the results for neuropsychopharmacological treatments of addiction and biophysical processing underlying temporal discounting and time perception are discussed.

  2. Modeling Multiple Response Processes in Judgment and Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bockenholt, Ulf

    2012-01-01

    In this article, I show how item response models can be used to capture multiple response processes in psychological applications. Intuitive and analytical responses, agree-disagree answers, response refusals, socially desirable responding, differential item functioning, and choices among multiple options are considered. In each of these cases, I…

  3. Day-to-day route choice modeling incorporating inertial behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Essen, van M.A.; Rakha, H.; Vreeswijk, J.D.; Wismans, L.J.J.; Berkum, van E.C.

    2015-01-01

    Accurate route choice modeling is one of the most important aspects when predicting the effects of transport policy and dynamic traffic management. Moreover, the effectiveness of intervention measures to a large extent depends on travelers’ response to the changes these measures cause. As a compleme

  4. Modeling Inertia and Variety Seeking Tendencies in Brand Choice Behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Kapil Bawa

    1990-01-01

    Theories of exploratory behavior suggest that inertia and variety-seeking tendencies may coexist within the individual, implying that the same individual may exhibit inertia and variety-seeking at different times depending on his/her choice history. Past research has not allowed for such -consumer variability in these tendencies. The purpose of this study is to present a choice model that allows us to identify such “hybrid” behavior (i.e., a mixture of inertia and variety-seeking), and to dis...

  5. Incorporating Mental Representations in Discrete Choice Models of Travel Behaviour : Modelling Approach and Empirical Application

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T.A. Arentze (Theo); B.G.C. Dellaert (Benedict); C.G. Chorus (Casper)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractWe introduce an extension of the discrete choice model to take into account individuals’ mental representation of a choice problem. We argue that, especially in daily activity and travel choices, the activated needs of an individual have an influence on the benefits he or she pursues in

  6. A Simplified Model of Choice Behavior under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Ching-Hung; Lin, Yu-Kai; Song, Tzu-Jiun; Huang, Jong-Tsun; Chiu, Yao-Chu

    2016-01-01

    The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) has been standardized as a clinical assessment tool (Bechara, 2007). Nonetheless, numerous research groups have attempted to modify IGT models to optimize parameters for predicting the choice behavior of normal controls and patients. A decade ago, most researchers considered the expected utility (EU) model (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002) to be the optimal model for predicting choice behavior under uncertainty. However, in recent years, studies have demonstrated that models with the prospect utility (PU) function are more effective than the EU models in the IGT (Ahn et al., 2008). Nevertheless, after some preliminary tests based on our behavioral dataset and modeling, it was determined that the Ahn et al. (2008) PU model is not optimal due to some incompatible results. This study aims to modify the Ahn et al. (2008) PU model to a simplified model and used the IGT performance of 145 subjects as the benchmark data for comparison. In our simplified PU model, the best goodness-of-fit was found mostly as the value of α approached zero. More specifically, we retested the key parameters α, λ, and A in the PU model. Notably, the influence of the parameters α, λ, and A has a hierarchical power structure in terms of manipulating the goodness-of-fit in the PU model. Additionally, we found that the parameters λ and A may be ineffective when the parameter α is close to zero in the PU model. The present simplified model demonstrated that decision makers mostly adopted the strategy of gain-stay loss-shift rather than foreseeing the long-term outcome. However, there are other behavioral variables that are not well revealed under these dynamic-uncertainty situations. Therefore, the optimal behavioral models may not have been found yet. In short, the best model for predicting choice behavior under dynamic-uncertainty situations should be further evaluated. PMID:27582715

  7. Binary choices in small and large groups: A unified model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bischi, Gian-Italo; Merlone, Ugo

    2010-02-01

    Two different ways to model the diffusion of alternative choices within a population of individuals in the presence of social externalities are known in the literature. While Galam’s model of rumors spreading considers a majority rule for interactions in several groups, Schelling considers individuals interacting in one large group, with payoff functions that describe how collective choices influence individual preferences. We incorporate these two approaches into a unified general discrete-time dynamic model for studying individual interactions in variously sized groups. We first illustrate how the two original models can be obtained as particular cases of the more general model we propose, then we show how several other situations can be analyzed. The model we propose goes beyond a theoretical exercise as it allows modeling situations which are relevant in economic and social systems. We consider also other aspects such as the propensity to switch choices and the behavioral momentum, and show how they may affect the dynamics of the whole population.

  8. A Multiplicative Fixed-Effects Model of Consumer Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Purushottam Papatla

    1996-01-01

    The issue of consumer heterogeneity in discrete choice analysis has been attracting much attention recently. Research has suggested that heterogeneity can result in biased parameter estimates which, in turn, can lead to incorrect conclusions. Among the many methods proposed in the literature to handle heterogeneity, models seem to be the most attractive from a substantive point of view. However, in order to provide consistent estimates, these models typically require long purchase histories. ...

  9. On the Recoverability of Choice Behaviors with Random Coefficients Choice Models in the Context of Limited Data and Unobserved Effects

    OpenAIRE

    Rick L. Andrews; Andrew Ainslie; Imran S. Currim

    2008-01-01

    Random coefficients choice models are seeing widespread adoption in marketing research, partly because of their ability to generate household-level parameter estimates with limited data. However, the power of such models may tempt researchers to trust that they continue to produce reasonable estimates, when in fact either model misspecification or insufficient data limits the models' ability to recover household-level parameters successfully. If household-level choice behaviors are not recove...

  10. Consumer Choice Prediction: Artificial Neural Networks versus Logistic Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Gan

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Conventional econometric models, such as discriminant analysis and logistic regression have been used to predict consumer choice. However, in recent years, there has been a growing interest in applying artificial neural networks (ANN to analyse consumer behaviour and to model the consumer decision-making process. The purpose of this paper is to empirically compare the predictive power of the probability neural network (PNN, a special class of neural networks and a MLFN with a logistic model on consumers’ choices between electronic banking and non-electronic banking. Data for this analysis was obtained through a mail survey sent to 1,960 New Zealand households. The questionnaire gathered information on the factors consumers’ use to decide between electronic banking versus non-electronic banking. The factors include service quality dimensions, perceived risk factors, user input factors, price factors, service product characteristics and individual factors. In addition, demographic variables including age, gender, marital status, ethnic background, educational qualification, employment, income and area of residence are considered in the analysis. Empirical results showed that both ANN models (MLFN and PNN exhibit a higher overall percentage correct on consumer choice predictions than the logistic model. Furthermore, the PNN demonstrates to be the best predictive model since it has the highest overall percentage correct and a very low percentage error on both Type I and Type II errors.

  11. Sample selection and taste correlation in discrete choice transport modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

    2008-01-01

    the question for a broader class of models. It is shown that the original result may be somewhat generalised. Another question investigated is whether mode choice operates as a self-selection mechanism in the estimation of the value of travel time. The results show that self-selection can at least partly...... explain counterintuitive results in value of travel time estimation. However, the results also point at the difficulty of finding suitable instruments for the selection mechanism. Taste heterogeneity is another important aspect of discrete choice modelling. Mixed logit models are designed to capture...... observed as well as unobserved heterogeneity in tastes. But just as there are many reasons to expect unobserved heterogeneity, there is no reason to expect these tastes for different things to be independent. This is rarely accounted for in transportation research. Here three separate investigations...

  12. Understanding Predisposition in College Choice: Toward an Integrated Model of College Choice and Theory of Reasoned Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitre, Paul E.; Johnson, Todd E.; Pitre, Charisse Cowan

    2006-01-01

    This article seeks to improve traditional models of college choice that draw from recruitment and enrollment management paradigms. In adopting a consumer approach to college choice, this article seeks to build upon consumer-related research, which centers on behavior and reasoning. More specifically, this article seeks to move inquiry beyond the…

  13. Research and Simulation on Drivers Route Choice Behavior Cognition Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Na Lin

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper studied the behavior-cognitive model of drivers during their travel based on the current research on driver behavior. Firstly, a route choice behavior-cognitive model was proposed for describing the decision-making mechanism of drivers during his travel; then, simulation experiments were carried out on the co-simulation VBc-vissim platform. From the experimental results, dynamic behavior features of drivers during their travel can be properly explained by the behavior-cognitive model, thus optimal path can be obtained from this model.

  14. Robustness of public choice models of voting behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihai UNGUREANU

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Modern economics modeling practice involves highly unrealistic assumptions. Since testing such models is not always an easy enterprise, researchers face the problem of determining whether a result is dependent (or not on the unrealistic details of the model. A solution for this problem is conducting robustness analysis. In its classical form, robustness analysis is a non-empirical method of confirmation – it raises our trust in a given result by implying it with from several different models. In this paper I argue that robustness analysis could be thought as a method of post-empirical failure. This form of robustness analysis involves assigning guilt for the empirical failure to a certain part of the model. Starting from this notion of robustness, I analyze a case of empirical failure from public choice theory or the economic approach of politics. Using the fundamental methodological principles of neoclassical economics, the first model of voting behavior implied that almost no one would vote. This was clearly an empirical failure. Public choice scholars faced the problem of either restraining the domain of their discipline or giving up to some of their neoclassical methodological features. The second solution was chosen and several different models of voting behavior were built. I will treat these models as a case for performing robustness analysis and I will determine which assumption from the original model is guilty for the empirical failure.

  15. Representing hybrid compensatory non-compensatory choice set formation in semi-compensatory models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Bekhor, Shlomo; Shigtan, Yoram

    2012-01-01

    Semi-compensatory models represent a choice process consisting of an elimination-based choice set formation upon satisfying criteria thresholds and a utility-based choice. Current semi-compensatory models assume a purely non-compensatory choice set formation and hence do not support multinomial c...

  16. Incorporating Responsiveness to Marketing Efforts When Modeling Brand Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Fok, Dennis; Franses, Philip Hans; Paap, Richard

    2001-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we put forward a brand choice model which incorporates responsiveness to marketing efforts as a form of structural heterogeneity. We introduce two latent segments of households. The households in the first segment are assumed to respond to marketing efforts while households in the second segment do not do so. Whether a specific household is a member of the first or the second segment at a specific purchase occasion is described by household-specific characteristics a...

  17. Modeling Preference and Structural Heterogeneity in Consumer Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Kamakura, Wagner A.; Byung-Do Kim; Jonathan Lee

    1996-01-01

    Consumer heterogeneity is fundamental to the marketing concept, providing the basis for market segmentation, targeting and positioning, as well as micro-marketing. Substantial effort has already been devoted to incorporate heterogeneity in brand choice models. However, most of the research in this area has focused on differences in preferences or tastes across consumers. In contrast, limited attention has been given to the possibility that consumers might also differ in the process they follo...

  18. Simple model for multiple-choice collective decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ching Hua; Lucas, Andrew

    2014-11-01

    We describe a simple model of heterogeneous, interacting agents making decisions between n≥2 discrete choices. For a special class of interactions, our model is the mean field description of random field Potts-like models and is effectively solved by finding the extrema of the average energy E per agent. In these cases, by studying the propagation of decision changes via avalanches, we argue that macroscopic dynamics is well captured by a gradient flow along E. We focus on the permutation symmetric case, where all n choices are (on average) the same, and spontaneous symmetry breaking (SSB) arises purely from cooperative social interactions. As examples, we show that bimodal heterogeneity naturally provides a mechanism for the spontaneous formation of hierarchies between decisions and that SSB is a preferred instability to discontinuous phase transitions between two symmetric points. Beyond the mean field limit, exponentially many stable equilibria emerge when we place this model on a graph of finite mean degree. We conclude with speculation on decision making with persistent collective oscillations. Throughout the paper, we emphasize analogies between methods of solution to our model and common intuition from diverse areas of physics, including statistical physics and electromagnetism.

  19. Guidance on the Choice of Threshold for Binary Forecast Modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    This paper proposes useful guidance on the choice of threshold for binary forecasts. In weather forecast systems, the probabilistic forecast cannot be used directly when estimated too smoothly. In this case, the binary forecast, whether a meteorological event will occur or not, is preferable to the probabilistic forecast.A threshold is needed to generate a binary forecast, and the guidance in this paper encompasses the use of skill scores for the choice of threshold according to the forecast pattern. The forecast pattern consists of distribution modes of estimated probabilities, occurrence rates of observations, and variation modes.This study is performed via Monte-Carlo simulation, with 48 forecast patterns considered. Estimated probabilities are generated by random variate sampling from five distributions separately. Varying the threshold from 0 to 1, binary forecasts are generated by threshold. For the assessment of binary forecast models, a 2×2 contingency table is used and four skill scores (Heidke skill score, hit rate, true skill statistic,and threat score) are compared for each forecast pattern. As a result, guidance on the choice of skill score to find the optimal threshold is proposed.

  20. Advanced Nuclear Fuel Cycle Transitions: Optimization, Modeling Choices, and Disruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlsen, Robert W.

    Many nuclear fuel cycle simulators have evolved over time to help understan the nuclear industry/ecosystem at a macroscopic level. Cyclus is one of th first fuel cycle simulators to accommodate larger-scale analysis with it liberal open-source licensing and first-class Linux support. Cyclus also ha features that uniquely enable investigating the effects of modeling choices o fuel cycle simulators and scenarios. This work is divided into thre experiments focusing on optimization, effects of modeling choices, and fue cycle uncertainty. Effective optimization techniques are developed for automatically determinin desirable facility deployment schedules with Cyclus. A novel method fo mapping optimization variables to deployment schedules is developed. Thi allows relationships between reactor types and scenario constraints to b represented implicitly in the variable definitions enabling the usage o optimizers lacking constraint support. It also prevents wasting computationa resources evaluating infeasible deployment schedules. Deployed power capacit over time and deployment of non-reactor facilities are also included a optimization variables There are many fuel cycle simulators built with different combinations o modeling choices. Comparing results between them is often difficult. Cyclus flexibility allows comparing effects of many such modeling choices. Reacto refueling cycle synchronization and inter-facility competition among othe effects are compared in four cases each using combinations of fleet of individually modeled reactors with 1-month or 3-month time steps. There are noticeable differences in results for the different cases. The larges differences occur during periods of constrained reactor fuel availability This and similar work can help improve the quality of fuel cycle analysi generally There is significant uncertainty associated deploying new nuclear technologie such as time-frames for technology availability and the cost of buildin advanced reactors

  1. [Ventilators for anesthesia. Models available in France. Criteria for choice].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otteni, J C; Ancellin, J; Cazalaà, J B; Clergue, F; Feiss, P; Fougère, S; Nivoche, Y; Safran, D

    1995-01-01

    This update article discusses the criteria for the choice of an anaesthetic machine and provides a short analysis of the main components of the models commercialized in France in 1994. The following items are considered: the design of the machine, the fresh gas delivery system, the anaesthesia breathing system(s), the ventilator and the waste gas scavenging system, the monitors associated with the machine and other criteria such as facility of learning to run the machine and of its daily use, ease of "in-house" maintenance and quality of after-sales service, cost of the machine and of its use (driving gas, disposable equipment). PMID:7677278

  2. Choice Modeling for Usage Context-Based Design

    OpenAIRE

    He, Lin; Chen, Wei; Hoyle, Christopher; Yannou, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    International audience Usage Context-Based Design (UCBD) is an area of growing interest within the design community. Usage context is the set of scenarios in which a product (or service) is to be used, including the environments in which the product is used, the types of tasks the product performs, and the conditions under which the product is purchased and operates. It is proposed in this work that in choice modeling for usage context-based design, usage context should be a part of the pr...

  3. A Duopoly Model of Corporate Social Responsibility and Location Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Balboni, Alberto; Balboni, Fabio

    2008-01-01

    We adopt a framework of vertical differentiation (i.e. differentiation by quality) to study the issue of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). We develop a model of duopoly in a two‐country setting, in which firms choose the country of location, the level of CSR and finally compete in the market à la Bertrand. We show that: i) at equilibrium the two firms choose different levels of CSR, i.e. an "ethical" and a "neutral" firm coexist in the market; ii) regardless of its location choice, the “...

  4. Closing the gap between behavior and models in route choice: The role of spatiotemporal constraints and latent traits in choice set formation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    A considerable gap exists between the behavioral paradigm of choice set formation in route choice and its representation in route choice modeling. While travelers form their viable choice set by retaining routes that satisfy spatiotemporal constraints, existing route generation techniques do not ...... spatiotemporal constraints and latent traits in route choice models, and (iii) the linkage between spatiotemporal constraints and time saving, spatial and mnemonic abilities....

  5. A family of models for Schelling binary choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavalli, Fausto; Naimzada, Ahmad; Pireddu, Marina

    2016-02-01

    We introduce and study a family of discrete-time dynamical systems to model binary choices based on the framework proposed by Schelling in 1973. The model we propose uses a gradient-like adjustment mechanism by means of a family of smooth maps and allows understanding and analytically studying the phenomena qualitatively described by Schelling. In particular, we investigate existence of steady states and their relation to the equilibria of the static model studied by Schelling, and we analyze local stability, linking several examples and considerations provided by Schelling with bifurcation theory. We provide examples to confirm the theoretical results and to numerically investigate the possible destabilizations, as well as the emergence of coexisting attractors. We show the existence of chaos for a particular example.

  6. Performance and Prediction: Bayesian Modelling of Fallible Choice in Chess

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haworth, Guy; Regan, Ken; di Fatta, Giuseppe

    Evaluating agents in decision-making applications requires assessing their skill and predicting their behaviour. Both are well developed in Poker-like situations, but less so in more complex game and model domains. This paper addresses both tasks by using Bayesian inference in a benchmark space of reference agents. The concepts are explained and demonstrated using the game of chess but the model applies generically to any domain with quantifiable options and fallible choice. Demonstration applications address questions frequently asked by the chess community regarding the stability of the rating scale, the comparison of players of different eras and/or leagues, and controversial incidents possibly involving fraud. The last include alleged under-performance, fabrication of tournament results, and clandestine use of computer advice during competition. Beyond the model world of games, the aim is to improve fallible human performance in complex, high-value tasks.

  7. A model of interacting multiple choices of continuous opinions

    CERN Document Server

    Chou, C -I

    2016-01-01

    We present a model of interacting multiple choices of opinions. At each step of the process, a listener is persuaded by his/her neighbour, the lobbyist, to modify his/her opinion on two different choices of event. Whether or not the listener will be convinced by the lobbyist depends on the difference between his/her opinion with that of the lobbyist, and with that of the revealed social opinion (the social pressure). If the listener is convinced, he/she will modify his/her opinion and update his/her revealed preference, and proceed to persuade his/her next neighbour. If the listener is not convinced by the lobbyist, he/she will retain his/her revealed preference, and try to persuade the lobbyist to change his/her opinion. In this case, the direction of opinion propagation is reversed. A consensus is reached when all the revealed preference is the same. Our numerical results show that consensus can always be attained in this model. However, the time needed to achieve consensus, or the so-called convergence tim...

  8. The probit choice model under sequential search with an application to online retailing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bronnenberg, Bart; Kim, Jun B.; Albuquerque, P.

    2016-01-01

    We develop a probit choice model under optimal sequential search and apply it to the study of aggregate demand of consumer durable goods. In our joint model of search and choice, we derive a semi-closed form expression for the probability of choice that obeys the full set of restrictions imposed by

  9. Human nonindependent mate choice: is model female attractiveness everything?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vakirtzis, Antonios; Roberts, S Craig

    2012-05-06

    Following two decades of research on non-human animals, there has recently been increased interest in human nonindependent mate choice, namely the ways in which choosing women incorporate information about a man's past or present romantic partners ('model females') into their own assessment of the male. Experimental studies using static facial images have generally found that men receive higher desirability ratings from female raters when presented with attractive (compared to unattractive) model females. This phenomenon has a straightforward evolutionary explanation: the fact that female mate value is more dependent on physical attractiveness compared to male mate value. Furthermore, due to assortative mating for attractiveness, men who are paired with attractive women are more likely to be of high mate value themselves. Here, we also examine the possible relevance of model female cues other than attractiveness (personality and behavioral traits) by presenting video recordings of model females to a set of female raters. The results confirm that the model female's attractiveness is the primary cue. Contrary to some earlier findings in the human and nonhuman literature, we found no evidence that female raters prefer partners of slightly older model females. We conclude by suggesting some promising variations on the present experimental design.

  10. Alterations in choice behavior by manipulations of world model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, C. S.; Benson, C.; Kersten, D.; Schrater, P.

    2010-01-01

    How to compute initially unknown reward values makes up one of the key problems in reinforcement learning theory, with two basic approaches being used. Model-free algorithms rely on the accumulation of substantial amounts of experience to compute the value of actions, whereas in model-based learning, the agent seeks to learn the generative process for outcomes from which the value of actions can be predicted. Here we show that (i) “probability matching”—a consistent example of suboptimal choice behavior seen in humans—occurs in an optimal Bayesian model-based learner using a max decision rule that is initialized with ecologically plausible, but incorrect beliefs about the generative process for outcomes and (ii) human behavior can be strongly and predictably altered by the presence of cues suggestive of various generative processes, despite statistically identical outcome generation. These results suggest human decision making is rational and model based and not consistent with model-free learning. PMID:20805507

  11. ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brooker, A.; Gonder, J.; Lopp, S.; Ward, J.

    2015-05-04

    The Automotive Deployment Option Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a light-duty vehicle consumer choice and stock model supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. It estimates technology improvement impacts on U.S. light-duty vehicles sales, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas emissions. ADOPT uses techniques from the multinomial logit method and the mixed logit method estimate sales. Specifically, it estimates sales based on the weighted value of key attributes including vehicle price, fuel cost, acceleration, range and usable volume. The average importance of several attributes changes nonlinearly across its range and changes with income. For several attributes, a distribution of importance around the average value is used to represent consumer heterogeneity. The majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims are included to fully represent the market. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations are enforced. The sales feed into the ADOPT stock model. It captures key aspects for summing petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions This includes capturing the change in vehicle miles traveled by vehicle age, the creation of new model options based on the success of existing vehicles, new vehicle option introduction rate limits, and survival rates by vehicle age. ADOPT has been extensively validated with historical sales data. It matches in key dimensions including sales by fuel economy, acceleration, price, vehicle size class, and powertrain across multiple years. A graphical user interface provides easy and efficient use. It manages the inputs, simulation, and results.

  12. Estimating Route Choice Models from Stochastically Generated Choice Sets on Large-Scale Networks Correcting for Unequal Sampling Probability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vacca, Alessandro; Prato, Carlo Giacomo; Meloni, Italo

    2015-01-01

    is the dependency of the parameter estimates from the choice set generation technique. Bias introduced in model estimation has been corrected only for the random walk algorithm, which has problematic applicability to large-scale networks. This study proposes a correction term for the sampling probability of routes...

  13. Using cognitive models to develop quality multiple-choice questions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pugh, Debra; De Champlain, Andre; Gierl, Mark; Lai, Hollis; Touchie, Claire

    2016-08-01

    With the recent interest in competency-based education, educators are being challenged to develop more assessment opportunities. As such, there is increased demand for exam content development, which can be a very labor-intense process. An innovative solution to this challenge has been the use of automatic item generation (AIG) to develop multiple-choice questions (MCQs). In AIG, computer technology is used to generate test items from cognitive models (i.e. representations of the knowledge and skills that are required to solve a problem). The main advantage yielded by AIG is the efficiency in generating items. Although technology for AIG relies on a linear programming approach, the same principles can also be used to improve traditional committee-based processes used in the development of MCQs. Using this approach, content experts deconstruct their clinical reasoning process to develop a cognitive model which, in turn, is used to create MCQs. This approach is appealing because it: (1) is efficient; (2) has been shown to produce items with psychometric properties comparable to those generated using a traditional approach; and (3) can be used to assess higher order skills (i.e. application of knowledge). The purpose of this article is to provide a novel framework for the development of high-quality MCQs using cognitive models. PMID:26998566

  14. Variety Seeking, Purchase Timing, and the "Lightning Bolt" Brand Choice Model

    OpenAIRE

    Pradeep K. Chintagunta

    1999-01-01

    The "Lightning Bolt" (LB) model provides a comprehensive framework for accommodating the effects of habit persistence, unobserved heterogeneity, and state dependence on household brand choice behavior. This paper presents a discrete, dynamic brand-choice model that belongs to the LB class of models. We propose a method for incorporating the effects of variety seeking into the LB model formulation. The proposed formulation explicitly links brand choice and purchase timing behavior via the effe...

  15. The Answering Process for Multiple-Choice Questions in Collaborative Learning: A Mathematical Learning Model Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Nishi, Shinnosuke; Muramatsu, Yuta; Yasutake, Koichi; Yamakawa, Osamu; Tagawa, Takahiro

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce a mathematical model for collaborative learning and the answering process for multiple-choice questions. The collaborative learning model is inspired by the Ising spin model and the model for answering multiple-choice questions is based on their difficulty level. An intensive simulation study predicts the possibility of…

  16. Joint Residence-Workplace Location Choice Model Based on Household Decision Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengpeng Jiao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Residence location and workplace are the two most important urban land-use types, and there exist strong interdependences between them. Existing researches often assume that one choice dimension is correlated to the other. Using the mixed logit framework, three groups of choice models are developed to illustrate such choice dependencies. First, for all households, this paper presents a basic methodology of the residence location and workplace choice without decision sequence based on the assumption that the two choice behaviors are independent of each other. Second, the paper clusters all households into two groups, choosing residence or workplace first, and formulates the residence location and workplace choice models under the constraint of decision sequence. Third, this paper combines the residence location and workplace together as the choice alternative and puts forward the joint choice model. A questionnaire survey is implemented in Beijing city to collect the data of 1994 households. Estimation results indicate that the joint choice model fits the data significantly better, and the elasticity effects analyses show that the joint choice model reflects the influences of relevant factors to the choice probability well and leads to the job-housing balance.

  17. Agent-based modelling of consumer energy choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, Varun; Henry, Adam Douglas

    2016-06-01

    Strategies to mitigate global climate change should be grounded in a rigorous understanding of energy systems, particularly the factors that drive energy demand. Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a powerful tool for representing the complexities of energy demand, such as social interactions and spatial constraints. Unlike other approaches for modelling energy demand, ABM is not limited to studying perfectly rational agents or to abstracting micro details into system-level equations. Instead, ABM provides the ability to represent behaviours of energy consumers -- such as individual households -- using a range of theories, and to examine how the interaction of heterogeneous agents at the micro-level produces macro outcomes of importance to the global climate, such as the adoption of low-carbon behaviours and technologies over space and time. We provide an overview of ABM work in the area of consumer energy choices, with a focus on identifying specific ways in which ABM can improve understanding of both fundamental scientific and applied aspects of the demand side of energy to aid the design of better policies and programmes. Future research needs for improving the practice of ABM to better understand energy demand are also discussed.

  18. About One Model Strategic Game of Collective Choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guram N. Beltadze

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available A model of dyadic non-cooperative game Γ(H is discussed in the paper for the set of one and the same players’ strategies. The players make their choice sitting round the table and have the opportunity to coordinate only the meanings of utilities in every situation. Therefore the players’ payoffs are given by 2×2 matrixes. A notion “the equalized situation” in mixed strategies which is at the same time the equilibrium is introduced. The theorem has been proved, which establishes the conditions of existance of an equalized situation in the given game. In the case of the existence algorithm is constructed. If equalized situation doesn’t exist in the game, then there exists the equilibrium situation in the pure strategies and it is possible to find it by analysis of situations. Γ(H game’s with bimatrix Γ game in case of two players is given. The players’ conditions of optimal mixed strategies existence in Γ game is written. Relevant examples are solved and Γ(H game’s application for finite amount of players’ is discussed.

  19. Estimation of Discrete Choice Models with Many Alternatives Using Random Subsets of the Full Choice Set: With an Application to Demand for Frozen Pizza

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Keane; Nada Wasi

    2012-01-01

    A common problem in estimation of discrete choice models is that the complete choice set is very large. A good example is supermarket consumer goods, like breakfast cereal, where there are often a hundred or more varieties (SKUs or UPCs) to choose from. In that case, estimation of complex discrete choice models where choice probabilities have no closed form can be very computationally burdensome. We show how use of random subsets of the full choice set can be a useful device to reduce computa...

  20. Assisted Reproductive Technologies (ART) in a model of fertility choice

    OpenAIRE

    Rainer, Helmut; Selvaretnam, Geethanjali; Ulph, David

    2008-01-01

    This paper provides a simple theoretical framework to discuss the relationship between assisted reproductive technologies and the microeconomics of fertility choice. Individuals make choices of education and work along with decisions about whether and when to have children. Decisions regarding fertility are influenced by policy and labor market factors that affect the earnings opportunities of mothers and the costs of raising children. We show how observed differences in these economic factor...

  1. Joint modeling of constrained path enumeration and path choice behavior: a semi-compensatory approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2010-01-01

    A behavioural and a modelling framework are proposed for representing route choice from a path set that satisfies travellers’ spatiotemporal constraints. Within the proposed framework, travellers’ master sets are constructed by path generation, consideration sets are delimited according...... to spatiotemporal constraints, and travellers’ route choices are represented from consideration sets. A semi-compensatory model represents the constrained path enumera-tion with joint hazard-based and ordered probit models, and the path choice with a path size correction logit. Results show that spatiotemporal...... constraints are related to travellers’ socio-economic characteristics and that path choice is related to minimizing time and avoiding congestion....

  2. The Use of Predictive Models in Forecasting Student Choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuckman, Howard P.

    This paper uses ordinary least squares regression to obtain probabilities for the post-graduation choices of high school seniors, and it presents an illustration of the use of these probabilities in calculating future income. Problems raised by the use of the least squares regression are discussed. The benefits of higher education and ways in…

  3. Modeling brand choice using boosted and stacked neural networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Potharst (Rob); M. van Rijthoven; M.C. van Wezel (Michiel)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThe brand choice problem in marketing has recently been addressed with methods from computational intelligence such as neural networks. Another class of methods from computational intelligence, the so-called ensemble methods such as boosting and stacking have never been applied to the

  4. Effects of chronic administration of drugs of abuse on impulsive choice (delay discounting) in animal models

    OpenAIRE

    Setlow, Barry; Mendez, Ian A.; Mitchell, Marci R; Simon, Nicholas W.

    2009-01-01

    Drug addicted individuals demonstrate high levels of impulsive choice, characterized by preference for small immediate over larger but delayed rewards. Although the causal relationship between chronic drug use and elevated impulsive choice in humans has been unclear, a small but growing body of literature over the past decade has shown that chronic drug administration in animal models can cause increases in impulsive choice, suggesting that a similar causal relationship may exist in human dru...

  5. Departure time choice: Modelling individual preferences, intention and constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorhauge, Mikkel

    to consider the level of flexibility (or lack of the same) as well. Flexibility is a complex issue affecting departure time in multiple dimensions. The most straightforward constraint when studying commuter trips is on the arrival time at the work place (e.g. due to individuals having fixed or flexible......-off between travel time and a delay “penalty” resulting from being late or early. However, studying departure time choice is complicated as it is affected by additional factors. Firstly, it is related to a range of other trip-related decisions such as choice of mode, destination and trip purpose. Secondly...... working hours) as the penalty of late arrival is very likely to be higher for individuals with constraints on arrival time. However, flexibility is not only a matter of fixed arrival time. Activities can be mandatory or discretionary (Yamamoto and Kitamura, 1999), performed alone or jointly with family...

  6. Multinomial logit model of choices of Internet modes in Iraq

    OpenAIRE

    Heshmati, Almas; Firas H. Al-Hammadany

    2014-01-01

    Iraq is a country that has the potential to explode onto the Internet market due to the fact that much of Iraq is still largely without access to the Internet. Iraq’s market has much room for corporate and individual investments in Internet technology, mainly, Internet access. However, this requires a deep understanding of the user with regards to the Internet and the market characteristics involved. This study is concerned with the users’ choice of Internet mode connections in Iraq. There ar...

  7. Fuzzy social choice models explaining the government formation process

    CERN Document Server

    C Casey, Peter; A Goodman, Carly; Pook, Kelly Nelson; N Mordeson, John; J Wierman, Mark; D Clark, Terry

    2014-01-01

    This book explores the extent to which fuzzy set logic can overcome some of the shortcomings of public choice theory, particularly its inability to provide adequate predictive power in empirical studies. Especially in the case of social preferences, public choice theory has failed to produce the set of alternatives from which collective choices are made.  The book presents empirical findings achieved by the authors in their efforts to predict the outcome of government formation processes in European parliamentary and semi-presidential systems.  Using data from the Comparative Manifesto Project (CMP), the authors propose a new approach that reinterprets error in the coding of CMP data as ambiguity in the actual political positions of parties on the policy dimensions being coded. The range of this error establishes parties’ fuzzy preferences. The set of possible outcomes in the process of government formation is then calculated on the basis of both the fuzzy Pareto set and the fuzzy maximal set, and the pre...

  8. A Statistical Model of the Grammatical Choices in Child Production of Dative Sentences

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Marneffe, Marie-Catherine; Grimm, Scott; Arnon, Inbal; Kirby, Susannah; Bresnan, Joan

    2012-01-01

    Focusing on children's production of the dative alternation in English, we examine whether children's choices are influenced by the same factors that influence adults' choices, and whether, like adults, they are sensitive to multiple factors simultaneously. We do so by using mixed-effect regression models to analyse child and child-directed…

  9. Multimodal route choice models of public transport passengers in the Greater Copenhagen Area

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anderson, Marie Karen; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2014-01-01

    ,641 public transport users in the Greater Copenhagen Area.A two-stage approach consisting of choice set generation and route choice model estimation allowed uncovering the preferences of the users of this multimodal large-scale public transport network. The results illustrate the rates of substitution...

  10. Modeling the Bullying Prevention Program Preferences of Educators: A Discrete Choice Conjoint Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Charles E.; Vaillancourt, Tracy; Rimas, Heather; Deal, Ken; Cunningham, Lesley; Short, Kathy; Chen, Yvonne

    2009-01-01

    We used discrete choice conjoint analysis to model the bullying prevention program preferences of educators. Using themes from computerized decision support lab focus groups (n = 45 educators), we composed 20 three-level bullying prevention program design attributes. Each of 1,176 educators completed 25 choice tasks presenting experimentally…

  11. Understanding the formation and influence of attitudes in patients' treatment choices for lower back pain: Testing the benefits of a hybrid choice model approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kløjgaard, Mirja Elisabeth; Hess, S.

    2014-01-01

    A growing number of studies across different fields are making use of a new class of choice models, labelled variably as hybrid model structures or integrated choice and latent variable models, and incorporating the role of attitudes in decision making. To date, this technique has not been used...... in health economics. The present paper looks at the formation of such attitudes and their role in patients treatment choices in the context of low back pain. We use stated choice data collected from a sample of 561 patients with 348 respondents referred to a regional spine centre in Middelfart, Denmark...... in spring/summer 2012. We show how the hybrid model structure is able to make a link between attitudinal questions and treatment choices, and also explains variation of these attitudes across key socio-demographic groups. However, we also show how, in this case, only a small share of the overall...

  12. Estimating a Multinomial Probit Model of Brand Choice Using the Method of Simulated Moments

    OpenAIRE

    Pradeep K. Chintagunta

    1992-01-01

    The multinomial probit model of brand choice is theoretically appealing for marketing applications as it is free from the “independence of irrelevant alternatives” property of the multinomial logit model. However, difficulties in estimation have restricted its widespread use in marketing. This paper presents an application of the method of simulated moments, a new methodology that enables easy estimation of probit models with a large number of alternatives in the choice set. We describe the t...

  13. A Transactions Choice Model for Forecasting Demand for Alternative-Fuel Vehicles

    OpenAIRE

    Brownstone, David; Bunch, David S.; Golob, Thomas F.; Ren, Weiping

    1996-01-01

    The vehicle choice model developed here is one component in a micro-simulation demand forecasting system being designed to produce annual forecasts of new and used vehicle demand by vehicle type and geographic area in California. The system will also forecast annual vehicle miles traveled for all vehicles and recharging demand by time of day for electric vehicles. The choice model specification differs from past studies by directly modeling vehicle transactions rather than vehicle holdings. T...

  14. Extensions and applications of the diffusion model for two-choice response times

    OpenAIRE

    Vandekerckhove, Joachim

    2009-01-01

    Joachim Vandekerckhove, Extensions and applications of the diffu sion model for two-choice response times. Dissertation submitted to obtain the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Psychology, April 2009. Promoter: Prof. Dr. F. Tuerlinckx. Two-choice response time data (2CRT) is one of the most common formats o f empirical data in experimental psychology. Unfortunately, such data do not adhere to the requirements of standard statistical models (such as the general linear model). The main goa...

  15. Business model choices and dimensions of social capital, a path to attain organizational sustainability

    OpenAIRE

    Rodríguez Donaire, Silvia

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we study the link between business model set of choices and the way these choices and the resulting business model configuration influence its behaviour, including the consequences. In particular, we study social capital formation as a potential outcome of the business model configuration. Social capital is an important resource that might contribute to the firm sustainability. A conceptual framework is developed. In this preliminary study we have applied it to a real situati...

  16. Of Songs and Men: a Model for Multiple Choice with Herding

    OpenAIRE

    Christian Borghesi; Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

    2006-01-01

    We propose a generic model for multiple choice situations in the presence of herding and compare it with recent empirical results from a Web-based music market experiment. The model predicts a phase transition between a weak imitation phase and a strong imitation, `fashion' phase, where choices are driven by peer pressure and the ranking of individual preferences is strongly distorted at the aggregate level. The model can be calibrated to reproduce the main experimental results of Salganik et...

  17. A discrete choice model with social interactions: an analysis of high school teen behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Kooreman, Peter; Soetevent, Adriaan

    2002-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete choice model that explicitly allows for endogenous social interactions. We analyze the issues of multiple equilibria, statistical coherency, and estimation of the model by means of simulation methods. In an empirical application, we analyze a data set containing information on the individual behavior of some 8000 high school teenagers from almost 500 different school classes. We estimate the model for five types of teen discrete choice behavior: smoking, truan...

  18. Multinomial logit model of choices of Internet modes in Iraq

    OpenAIRE

    Heshmati, Almas; Firas H. Al-Hammadany

    2014-01-01

    Iraq is a country that has the potential to explode onto the Internet market due to the fact that much of Iraq is still largely without access to the Internet. Iraq¡¯s market has much room for corporate and individual investments in Internet technology, mainly, Internet access. However, this requires a deep understanding of the user with regards to the Internet and the market characteristics involved. This study is concerned with the users¡¯ choice of Internet mode connections in Iraq. There ...

  19. Choices and changes: Eccles' Expectancy-Value model and upper-secondary school students' longitudinal reflections about their choice of a STEM education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-03-01

    During the past 30 years, Eccles' comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students in their last year in upper-secondary school concerning their choice of tertiary education were examined using quantitative EV-MBC surveys and repeated qualitative interviews. This article presents the analyses of three cases in detail. The analytical focus was whether the factors indicated in the EV-MBC model could be used to detect significant changes in the students' educational choice processes. An important finding was that the quantitative EV-MBC surveys and the qualitative interviews gave quite different results concerning the students' considerations about the choice of tertiary education, and that significant changes in the students' reflections were not captured by the factors of the EV-MBC model. This questions the validity of the EV-MBC surveys. Moreover, the quantitative factors from the EV-MBC model did not sufficiently explain students' dynamical educational choice processes where students in parallel considered several different potential educational trajectories. We therefore call for further studies of the EV-MBC model's use in describing longitudinal choice processes and especially in investigating significant changes.

  20. A Transaction Choice Model for Forecasting Demand for Alternative-Fuel Vehicles

    OpenAIRE

    Brownstone, David; Bunch, David S.; Golob, Thomas F.; Ren, Weiping

    1996-01-01

    The vehicle choice model developed here is one component in a mlcro-slmulatlon demand forecasting system being designed to produce annual forecasts of new and used vehicle demand by vehicle type and geographic area in Cahforma. The system will also forecast annual vehicle miles traveled for all vehicles and recharging demand by ume of day for electric vehicles. The choice model specification differs from past studies by directly modehng vehicle transactions rather than vehlcle holdings. The m...

  1. Modelling the effects of shopping centre size and store variety on consumer choice behaviour

    OpenAIRE

    Oppewal, H Harmen; Timmermans, HJP Harry; Louviere, JJ Jordan

    1997-01-01

    In this paper it is argued that models of consumer choice of shopping destination have included few attributes related to the selection of stores available in a shopping centre. The authors seek to develop and illustrate empirically a way to define the selection of stores in shopping centres, such that effects of various modifications to the available selection can be modelled by conjoint analysis (or stated preference of decompositional choice) methods. Profiles of hypothetical shopping cent...

  2. A conceptual model for determining career choice of CHROME alumna based on farmer's conceptual models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Lisa Simmons

    This qualitative program evaluation examines the career decision-making processes and career choices of nine, African American women who participated in the Cooperating Hampton Roads Organization for Minorities in Engineering (CHROME) and who graduated from urban, rural or suburban high schools in the year 2000. The CHROME program is a nonprofit, pre-college intervention program that encourages underrepresented minority and female students to enter science, technically related, engineering, and math (STEM) career fields. The study describes career choices and decisions made by each participant over a five-year period since high school graduation. Data was collected through an Annual Report, Post High School Questionnaires, Environmental Support Questionnaires, Career Choice Questionnaires, Senior Reports, and standardized open-ended interviews. Data was analyzed using a model based on Helen C. Farmer's Conceptual Models, John Ogbu's Caste Theory and Feminist Theory. The CHROME program, based on its stated goals and tenets, was also analyzed against study findings. Findings indicated that participants received very low levels of support from counselors and teachers to pursue STEM careers and high levels of support from parents and family, the CHROME program and financial backing. Findings of this study also indicated that the majority of CHROME alumna persisted in STEM careers. The most successful participants, in terms of undergraduate degree completion and occupational prestige, were the African American women who remained single, experienced no critical incidents, came from a middle class to upper middle class socioeconomic background, and did not have children.

  3. Institutional influences on business model choice by new ventures in the microgenerated energy industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Provance, Mike, E-mail: mprovanc@odu.edu [Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA 23529 (United States); Donnelly, Richard G.; Carayannis, Elias G. [George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052 (United States)

    2011-09-15

    Business model choice plays an important source of competitive advantage for new ventures in the microgeneration sector. Yet, existing literature focuses on strategic management of internal resources as the constraints in this choice process. In the energy sector, external factors may be at least as influential in shaping these business models. This paper examines the roles of politico-institutional and socio-institutional dynamics in the choice of business models for microgeneration ventures. Business models have traditionally been viewed as constructions of the internal values, strategies, and resources of organizations. But, this perspective overlooks the role that external forces have on these models, particularly in more highly institutionalized contexts like microgeneration. When these factors are introduced into the existing framework for business model choice, the business model based less on firm decision-making and more about variables that exist within national innovation systems and political structure, local socio-technological conditions, and cognitive abilities of the entrepreneur and corresponding stakeholders. - Highlights: > This work provides theoretical foundation for variation in microgeneration business models. > Explores institutional influences on strategic view of business model choice. > Compares the nature of microgeneration across geo-political contexts.

  4. Institutional influences on business model choice by new ventures in the microgenerated energy industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Business model choice plays an important source of competitive advantage for new ventures in the microgeneration sector. Yet, existing literature focuses on strategic management of internal resources as the constraints in this choice process. In the energy sector, external factors may be at least as influential in shaping these business models. This paper examines the roles of politico-institutional and socio-institutional dynamics in the choice of business models for microgeneration ventures. Business models have traditionally been viewed as constructions of the internal values, strategies, and resources of organizations. But, this perspective overlooks the role that external forces have on these models, particularly in more highly institutionalized contexts like microgeneration. When these factors are introduced into the existing framework for business model choice, the business model based less on firm decision-making and more about variables that exist within national innovation systems and political structure, local socio-technological conditions, and cognitive abilities of the entrepreneur and corresponding stakeholders. - Highlights: → This work provides theoretical foundation for variation in microgeneration business models. → Explores institutional influences on strategic view of business model choice. → Compares the nature of microgeneration across geo-political contexts.

  5. The Simplest Complete Model of Choice Response Time: Linear Ballistic Accumulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Scott D.; Heathcote, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    We propose a linear ballistic accumulator (LBA) model of decision making and reaction time. The LBA is simpler than other models of choice response time, with independent accumulators that race towards a common response threshold. Activity in the accumulators increases in a linear and deterministic manner. The simplicity of the model allows…

  6. Marketing Portfolio Choices by Independent Peach Growers: An Application of the Polychotomous Selection Model

    OpenAIRE

    Florkowski, Wojciech J.; Park, Timothy A.; BILGIC, Abdulbaki

    2003-01-01

    In selecting a marketing channel for fresh peach sales, Georgia commercial peach growers choose the channel after accounting for buyers' preferences for quality attributes. Using the polychotomous selection model and survey data we identified external and internal quality attributes as essential factors influencing the choice of a marketing channel and the share of the crop marketed. Other factors influencing the choice and the volume sold through each marketing channel included orchard chara...

  7. Issues in Urban Travel Demand Modelling : ICT Implications and Trip timing choice

    OpenAIRE

    Börjesson, Maria

    2006-01-01

    Travel demand forecasting is essential for many decisions, such as infrastructure investments and policy measures. Traditionally travel demand modelling has considered trip frequency, mode, destination and route choice. This thesis considers two other choice dimensions, hypothesised to have implications for travel demand forecasting. The first part investigates how the increased possibilities to overcome space that ICT (information and communication technology) provides, can be integrated in ...

  8. The timing of disability insurance application: a choice-based semiparametric hazard model

    OpenAIRE

    Richard V. Burkhauser; Butler, J. S.; Yang-Woo Kim

    1996-01-01

    We use a choice-based subsample of Social Security Disability Insurance applicants from the 1978 Social Security Survey of Disability and Work to test the importance of policy variables on the timing of application for disability insurance benefits following the onset of a work limiting health condition. We correct for choice-based sampling by extending the Manski-Lerman (1977) correction to the likelihood function of our continuous time hazard model defined with semiparametric unmeasured het...

  9. Airport Choice in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: An Application of the Conditional Logit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, Marcelo Baena; Muller, Carlos

    2003-01-01

    Using the conditional LOGIT model, this paper addresses the airport choice in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area. In this region, Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) and Congonhas Airport (CGH) compete for passengers flying to several domestic destinations. The airport choice is believed to be a result of the tradeoff passengers perform considering airport access characteristics, airline level of service characteristics and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. It was found that access time to the airports better explain the airport choice than access distance, whereas direct flight frequencies gives better explanation to the airport choice than the indirect (connections and stops) and total (direct plus indirect) flight frequencies. Out of 15 tested variables, passenger experience with the analyzed airports was the variable that best explained the airport choice in the region. Model specifications considering 1, 2 or 3 variables were tested. The model specification most adjusted to the observed data considered access time, direct flight frequencies in the travel period (morning or afternoon peak) and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. The influence of these variables was therefore analyzed across market segments according to departure airport and flight duration criteria. The choice of GRU (located neighboring Sao Paulo city) is not well explained by the rationality of access time economy and the increase of the supply of direct flight frequencies, while the choice of CGH (located inside Sao Paulo city) is. Access time was found to be more important to passengers flying shorter distances while direct flight frequencies in the travel period were more significant to those flying longer distances. Keywords: Airport choice, Multiple airport region, Conditional LOGIT model, Access time, Flight frequencies, Passenger experience with the analyzed airports, Transportation planning

  10. Modelling travel time perception in transport mode choices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Varotto, S.F.; Glerum, A.; Stathopoulos, A.; Bierlaire, M.; Longo, G.

    2015-01-01

    Travel behaviour models typically rely on data afflicted by errors, in perception (e.g., over/under-estimation by traveller) and measurement (e.g., software or researcher imputation error). Such errors are shown to have a relevant impact on model outputs. So far a comprehensive framework to deal wit

  11. The Statistical Relationship between Bivariate and Multinomial Choice Models

    OpenAIRE

    Weeks, Melvyn; Orne, Chris

    1999-01-01

    The authors demonstrate the conditions under which the bivariate probit model can be considered a special case of the more general multinomial probit model. Since the attendant parameter restrictions produce a singular covariance matrix, the subsequent problems of testing on the boundary of the parameter space are circumvented by the construction of a score test.

  12. Models of Teaching: Indicators Influencing Teachers' Perception of Pedagogical Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordyke, Alison Michelle

    2011-01-01

    The models of teaching are systematic tools that allow teachers to vary their classroom pedagogical practices to meet the needs of all learners in their classroom. This study was designed to determine key factors that influence teachers' decisions when determining a model of teaching for classroom instruction and to identify how teacher training…

  13. A LATENT TRAIT MODEL FOR DICHOTOMOUS CHOICE DATA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    HOIJTINK, H

    1990-01-01

    The PARELLA model is a probabilistic parallelogram model that can be used for the measurement of latent attitudes or latent preferences. The data analyzed are the dichotomous responses of persons to stimuli, with a one (zero) indicating agreement (disagreement) with the content of the stimulus. The

  14. Probabilistic models for qualitative choice behavior : an introduction

    OpenAIRE

    Dagsvik, John K.

    2000-01-01

    Preface: The econometric discipline has been criticized for being too similar to mathematical statistics and only to a limited degree linked to formalized theoretical models. This is particularly the case as regards formulation and specification of the stochastic elements in econometric models. Ragnar Frisch, who is known to be the originator of econometrics, expressed both in theory and practice an opposite ideal; namely econometrics as an almost symbiotic blend of statistical...

  15. Gaze data reveal distinct choice processes underlying model-based and model-free reinforcement learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konovalov, Arkady; Krajbich, Ian

    2016-01-01

    Organisms appear to learn and make decisions using different strategies known as model-free and model-based learning; the former is mere reinforcement of previously rewarded actions and the latter is a forward-looking strategy that involves evaluation of action-state transition probabilities. Prior work has used neural data to argue that both model-based and model-free learners implement a value comparison process at trial onset, but model-based learners assign more weight to forward-looking computations. Here using eye-tracking, we report evidence for a different interpretation of prior results: model-based subjects make their choices prior to trial onset. In contrast, model-free subjects tend to ignore model-based aspects of the task and instead seem to treat the decision problem as a simple comparison process between two differentially valued items, consistent with previous work on sequential-sampling models of decision making. These findings illustrate a problem with assuming that experimental subjects make their decisions at the same prescribed time. PMID:27511383

  16. Modelling the energy budget and prey choice of eider ducks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brinkman, A.G.; Ens, B.J.; Kats, R.K.H.

    2003-01-01

    We developed an energy and heat budget model for eider ducks. All relevant processes have been quantified. Food processing, diving costs, prey heating, the costs of crushing mussel shells, heat losses during diving as well as during resting, and heat production as a result of muscle activity are dis

  17. On Latent Change Model Choice in Longitudinal Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raykov, Tenko; Zajacova, Anna

    2012-01-01

    An interval estimation procedure for proportion of explained observed variance in latent curve analysis is discussed, which can be used as an aid in the process of choosing between linear and nonlinear models. The method allows obtaining confidence intervals for the R[squared] indexes associated with repeatedly followed measures in longitudinal…

  18. A cumulative decision model for three-alternative choice in concurrent chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, Randolph C; McLean, Anthony P

    2016-07-01

    Traditional models for choice in the concurrent-chains procedure have assumed that terminal-link stimuli acquire value as conditioned reinforcers, and that 2-alternative choice provides a measure of relative value according to the matching law. By contrast, the cumulative decision model (CDM; Christensen & Grace, 2010) explains choice as the aggregate effect of comparing delays to a criterion on initial-link responding, not conditioned reinforcement. Here we test whether the CDM can account for choice in 3-alternative concurrent-chains (3ACC) and compare it with the hyperbolic value-added model (HVA; Mazur, 2001), which assumes that choice depends on the increase in conditioned reinforcement value signaled by terminal-link stimuli and has been successful in previous 3ACC research (Mazur, 2000). In Experiment 1, 4 pigeons responded in 3ACC in which the terminal links were fixed-interval schedules, and parameter estimates from fits of CDM and HVA were used to calculate predictions for conditions with variable-interval terminal links. The predictions of CDM were more accurate than those of HVA. In Experiment 2, 7 pigeons responded in 3ACC in which the terminal links were fixed-interval schedules. Although both models described the data well, residuals from HVA fits showed a systematic pattern predicted by CDM, characterized by a third-order polynomial with a negative cubic coefficient. Finally, we conducted a residual meta-analysis (Sutton, Grace, McLean, & Baum, 2008) of data from prior 3ACC studies. HVA residuals showed the same negative cubic pattern as in Experiment 2, whereas no systematic pattern was found in the CDM residuals. Overall, results support the CDM and suggest that the same principles which describe binary choice in concurrent chains generalize without modification to 3-alternative choice. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:27379716

  19. A discrete choice model with social interactions : an analysis of high school teen behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooreman, Peter; Soetevent, Adriaan

    2002-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete choice model that explicitly allows for endogenous social interactions. We analyze the issues of multiple equilibria, statistical coherency, and estimation of the model by means of simulation methods. In an empirical application, we analyze a data set containing info

  20. A Stochastic Route Choice Model for Car Travellers in the Copenhagen Region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Otto Anker; Frederiksen, Rasmus Dyhr; Daly, A.

    2002-01-01

    The paper presents a large-scale stochastic road traffic assignment model for the Copenhagen Region. The model considers several classes of passenger cars (different trip purposes), vans and trucks, each with its own utility function on which route choices are based. The utility functions include...

  1. Random regret minimization: exploration of a new choice model for environmental and resource economics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thiene, M.; Boeri, M.; Chorus, C.G.

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces the discrete choice model-paradigm of Random Regret Minimization (RRM) to the field of environmental and resource economics. The RRM-approach has been very recently developed in the context of travel demand modelling and presents a tractable, regret-based alternative to the dom

  2. Decision-Tree Models of Categorization Response Times, Choice Proportions, and Typicality Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…

  3. Feasibility/Desirability Games for Normal Form Games, Choice Models and Evolutionary Games

    OpenAIRE

    Lescanne, Pierre

    2009-01-01

    17 pages An abstraction of normal form games is proposed, called Feasibility/Desirability Games (or FD Games in short). FD Games can be seen from three points of view: as a new presentation of games in which Nash equilibria can be found, as choice models in microeconomics or as a model of evolution in games.

  4. A discrete choice model with social interactions; with an application to high school teen behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.R. Soetevent; P. Kooreman

    2007-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete-choice interaction model with a finite number of agents. We characterize its equilibrium properties - in particular the correspondence between interaction strength, number of agents, and the set of equilibria - and propose to estimate the model by means of simulation

  5. Modeling anger and aggressive driving behavior in a dynamic choice-latent variable model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danaf, Mazen; Abou-Zeid, Maya; Kaysi, Isam

    2015-02-01

    This paper develops a hybrid choice-latent variable model combined with a Hidden Markov model in order to analyze the causes of aggressive driving and forecast its manifestations accordingly. The model is grounded in the state-trait anger theory; it treats trait driving anger as a latent variable that is expressed as a function of individual characteristics, or as an agent effect, and state anger as a dynamic latent variable that evolves over time and affects driving behavior, and that is expressed as a function of trait anger, frustrating events, and contextual variables (e.g., geometric roadway features, flow conditions, etc.). This model may be used in order to test measures aimed at reducing aggressive driving behavior and improving road safety, and can be incorporated into micro-simulation packages to represent aggressive driving. The paper also presents an application of this model to data obtained from a driving simulator experiment performed at the American University of Beirut. The results derived from this application indicate that state anger at a specific time period is significantly affected by the occurrence of frustrating events, trait anger, and the anger experienced at the previous time period. The proposed model exhibited a better goodness of fit compared to a similar simple joint model where driving behavior and decisions are expressed as a function of the experienced events explicitly and not the dynamic latent variable.

  6. Removing Specification Errors from the Usual Formulation of Binary Choice Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.A.V.B. Swamy

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available We develop a procedure for removing four major specification errors from the usual formulation of binary choice models. The model that results from this procedure is different from the conventional probit and logit models. This difference arises as a direct consequence of our relaxation of the usual assumption that omitted regressors constituting the error term of a latent linear regression model do not introduce omitted regressor biases into the coefficients of the included regressors.

  7. Decisionmaking between multiattribute choice alternatives : a model of spatial shopping-behaviour using conjoint measurements

    OpenAIRE

    Timmermans, HJP Harry; Heijden, van der, C.A.M.; Westerveld, J Hans

    1984-01-01

    In this paper the authors are concerned with the application of conjoint measurement models to predict consumer choice of shopping centres. First, conjoint measurement models are discussed in the context of the development of spatial shopping-models. Next, the conceptual framework underlying the model and conjoint measurement are discussed. The second part of the paper describes an application of the methodology. Conjoint measurement is used to estimate consumer utility functions and a multiv...

  8. A Structural Model with Discrete-Choice Variables for Predicting Enroute Behavior under ATIS

    OpenAIRE

    Adler, Jeffrey L.; Golob, Thomas F.; McNally, Michael G.

    1993-01-01

    Increasing efforts in Advanced Traveler Information Systems has emphasized the need to develop more robust models of enroute driver behavior. The complexity in modeling driver behavior stems from the need to capture the day-to-day dynamics of choice, model diversion and active information acquisition, and account for individual preferences and needs. Previous papers by the authors discussed a conflict arousal methodology for modeling driver behavior in the presence of real-time information. I...

  9. Immigrant Benefit Receipt: Sensitivity to the Choice of Survey years and Model Specification.

    OpenAIRE

    Crossley, T.F.; McDonald, J. T.; Worswick, C.

    1999-01-01

    Receipt of unemployment insurance by immigrant men and social assistance by immigrant families are analysed using thirteen surveys from Canada. Estimates from a cohort fixed effects model are found to be sensitive to the choice of survey years. This is due to the mis-specification of the fixed effects model which is rejected when tested against a model allowing for separate year-since-migration effects by arrival cohort. The estimates from the more general model provide little evidence of hig...

  10. Modeling of Intercity Travel Mode Choice Behavior for Non-Business Trips within Libya

    OpenAIRE

    Manssour A. Abdulsalam Bin Miskeen; Ahmed Mohamed Alhodairi; Riza Atiq Abdullah Bin O.K. Rahmat

    2014-01-01

    This study is pioneer in investigating mode-choice behavior of inter-city traveler for non-business trips in Libya, for this we have successfully developed and validated disaggregate behavioral inter-city non-business travel mode choice model, based on a binary logit structure. Four major inter-city corridors in Libya were the source of the data required for the development of the model. Data was collected based on interviews with 576 respondents. Majority of these data (nearly two-thirds) we...

  11. Approximate group context tree: applications to dynamic programming and dynamic choice models

    CERN Document Server

    Belloni, Alexandre

    2011-01-01

    The paper considers a variable length Markov chain model associated with a group of stationary processes that share the same context tree but potentially different conditional probabilities. We propose a new model selection and estimation method, develop oracle inequalities and model selection properties for the estimator. These results also provide conditions under which the use of the group structure can lead to improvements in the overall estimation. Our work is also motivated by two methodological applications: discrete stochastic dynamic programming and dynamic discrete choice models. We analyze the uniform estimation of the value function for dynamic programming and the uniform estimation of average dynamic marginal effects for dynamic discrete choice models accounting for possible imperfect model selection. We also derive the typical behavior of our estimator when applied to polynomially $\\beta$-mixing stochastic processes. For parametric models, we derive uniform rate of convergence for the estimation...

  12. Understanding the Effect of Baseline Modeling Implementation Choices on Analysis of Demand Response Performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    University of California, Berkeley; Addy, Nathan; Kiliccote, Sila; Mathieu, Johanna; Callaway, Duncan S.

    2012-06-13

    Accurate evaluation of the performance of buildings participating in Demand Response (DR) programs is critical to the adoption and improvement of these programs. Typically, we calculate load sheds during DR events by comparing observed electric demand against counterfactual predictions made using statistical baseline models. Many baseline models exist and these models can produce different shed calculations. Moreover, modelers implementing the same baseline model can make different modeling implementation choices, which may affect shed estimates. In this work, using real data, we analyze the effect of different modeling implementation choices on shed predictions. We focused on five issues: weather data source, resolution of data, methods for determining when buildings are occupied, methods for aligning building data with temperature data, and methods for power outage filtering. Results indicate sensitivity to the weather data source and data filtration methods as well as an immediate potential for automation of methods to choose building occupied modes.

  13. An alternative approach for choice models in transportation: Use of possibility theory for comparison of utilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dell’orco Mauro

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Modeling of human choice mechanism has been a topic of intense discussion in the transportation community for many years. The framework of modeling has been rooted in probability theory in which the analyst’s uncertainty about the integrity of the model is expressed in probability. In most choice situations, the decision-maker (traveler also experiences uncertainty because of the lack of complete information on the choices. In the traditional modeling framework, the uncertainty of the analyst and that of the decision-maker are both embedded in the same random term and not clearly separated. While the analyst's uncertainty may be represented by probability due to the statistical nature of events, that of the decision maker, however, is not always subjected to randomness; rather, it is the perceptive uncertainty. This paper proposes a modeling framework that attempts to account for the decision maker’s uncertainty by possibility theory and then the analyst's uncertainty by probability theory. The possibility to probability transformation is performed using the principle of uncertainty invariance. The proposed approach accounts for the quality of information on the changes in choice probability. The paper discusses the thought process, mathematics of possibility theory and probability transformation, and examples.

  14. A dynamic choice model of hybrid behavior in the attribute-space

    OpenAIRE

    Ladr??n de Guevara, Antonio

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents a dynamic choice model in the attribute space considering rational consumers that discount the future. In light of the evidence of several state-dependence patterns, the model is further extended by considering a utility function that allows for the different types of behavior described in the literature: pure inertia, pure variety seeking and hybrid. The model presents a stationary consumption pattern that can be inertial, where the consumer only buys ...

  15. A discrete-continuous choice model of climate change impacts on energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morrison, W.N. [Middlebury College, VT (United States); Mendelsohn, R. [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States). School of Forestry and Environmental Studies

    1998-09-01

    This paper estimates a discrete-continuous fuel choice model in order to explore climate impacts on the energy sector. The model is estimated on a national data set of firms and households. The results reveal that actors switch from oil in cold climates to electricity and natural gas in warm climates and that fuel-specific expenditures follow a U-shaped relationship with respect to temperature. The model implies that warming will increase American energy expenditures, reflecting a sizable welfare damage.

  16. A discrete-continuous choice model of climate change impacts on energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper estimates a discrete-continuous fuel choice model in order to explore climate impacts on the energy sector. The model is estimated on a national data set of firms and households. The results reveal that actors switch from oil in cold climates to electricity and natural gas in warm climates and that fuel-specific expenditures follow a U-shaped relationship with respect to temperature. The model implies that warming will increase American energy expenditures, reflecting a sizable welfare damage

  17. A Regime Switching Model of Schooling Choice as a Job Search Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Hyun Shin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a regime switching model of schooling choice as a job search process. We adopt a two-state Markov process and the derived coupled Bellman equations are solved by seeking the root of an auxiliary algebraic equation. Some numerical examples are also considered.

  18. Cognitive Diagnostic Models for Tests with Multiple-Choice and Constructed-Response Items

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Bor-Chen; Chen, Chun-Hua; Yang, Chih-Wei; Mok, Magdalena Mo Ching

    2016-01-01

    Traditionally, teachers evaluate students' abilities via their total test scores. Recently, cognitive diagnostic models (CDMs) have begun to provide information about the presence or absence of students' skills or misconceptions. Nevertheless, CDMs are typically applied to tests with multiple-choice (MC) items, which provide less diagnostic…

  19. Probabilistic choice models in health-state valuation research: background, theories, assumptions and applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arons, A.M.M.; Krabbe, P.F.M.

    2013-01-01

    Interest is rising in measuring subjective health outcomes, such as treatment outcomes that are not directly quantifiable (functional disability, symptoms, complaints, side effects and health-related quality of life). Health economists in particular have applied probabilistic choice models in the ar

  20. Probabilistic choice models in health-state valuation research : background, theories, assumptions and applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arons, Alexander M M; Krabbe, Paul F M

    2013-01-01

    Interest is rising in measuring subjective health outcomes, such as treatment outcomes that are not directly quantifiable (functional disability, symptoms, complaints, side effects and health-related quality of life). Health economists in particular have applied probabilistic choice models in the ar

  1. Multiple data sets and modelling choices in a comparative LCA of disposable beverage cups

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harst, van der E.J.M.; Potting, J.; Kroeze, C.

    2014-01-01

    This study used multiple data sets and modelling choices in an environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare typical disposable beverage cups made from polystyrene (PS), polylactic acid (PLA; bioplastic) and paper lined with bioplastic (biopaper). Incineration and recycling were considered as

  2. Evaluation of Financial Liberalization : A General Equilibrium Model with Constrained Occupation Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Gine, Xavier; Townsend, Robert M.

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to assess both the aggregate growth effects and the distributional consequences of financial liberalization as observed in Thailand from 1976 to 1996. A general equilibrium occupational choice model with two sectors, one without intermediation, and the other with borrowing and lending, is taken to Thai data. Key parameters of the production technology and the...

  3. Momentous Choices: Testing nonstandard decision models in health and housing markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Filko (Martin)

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ During more than half a century, several strands of research contributed to the development of decision theory. The standard normative model for choice under uncertainty – expected utility – was given a foundation by von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944) and Savage (1954).

  4. A field theoretic causal model of a Mach-Zehnder Wheeler delayed-choice experiment

    CERN Document Server

    Kaloyerou, P N

    2003-01-01

    We consider a Wheeler delayed-choice experiment based on the Mach-Zehnder Interferometer. Our aim is to provide a detailed causal model based on the quantum field theory of the electromagnetic field. In so doing we avoid the paradox of changing or creating history at the time of measurement.

  5. Multi-choice multi-objective mathematical programming model for integrated production planning: a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biswal, M. P.; Acharya, S.

    2013-09-01

    This article develops a multi-choice multi-objective linear programming model in order to solve an integrated production planning problem of a steel plant. The aim of the integrated production planning problem is to integrate the planning sub-functions into a single planning operation. The sub-functions are formulated by considering the capacity of different units of the plant, cost of raw materials from various territories, demands of customers in different geographical locations, time constraint for delivery the products, production cost and production rate at different stages of production process. Departure cost is also considered in the formulation of mathematical programming model. Some of the parameters are decided from a set of possible choices, therefore such parameters are considered as multi-choice type. Multi-choice mathematical programming problem cannot be solved directly. Therefore an equivalent multi-objective mathematical programming model is established in order to find the optimal solution of the problem. Computation of the mathematical programming model is performed with the practical production data of a plant to study the methodology.

  6. A Research Brief: A Novel Characteristic of Role Model Choice by Black Male College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, B. J.; Davis, R.; Harris, A.; Brown, K.; Wood, P.; Jones, D. R.; Spencer, S.; Nelson, L.; Brown, J.; Waddell, T.; Jones, C. B.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of the present research brief is to report a novel characteristic of role model choice that may be unreported in the literature for black males and to assess this finding in relation to perceived attractiveness of self and a member of the opposite sex. The study found that the proportion of males choosing themselves as their own role…

  7. Quantum Cournot equilibrium for the Hotelling-Smithies model of product choice

    CERN Document Server

    Rahaman, Ramij; Basu, B

    2012-01-01

    This paper demonstrates the quantization of a spatial Cournot duopoly model with product choice, a two stage game focusing on non-cooperation in locations and quantities. With quantization, the players can access a continuous set of strategies, using continuous variable quantum mechanical approach. The presence of quantum entanglement in the initial state identifies a quantity equilibrium for every location pair choice with any transport cost. Also higher profit is obtained by the firms at Nash equilibrium. Adoption of quantum strategies rewards us by the existence of a larger quantum strategic space at equilibrium.

  8. The Effects of Land Use Patterns on Tour Type Choice. The Application of a Hybrid Choice Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Abreu e Silva, João; Sottile, Eleonora; Cherchi, Elisabetta

    2014-01-01

    The relations between travel behavior and land use patterns have been the object of intensive research in the last two decades. Due to their immediate policy implications, mode choice and vehicle miles of travel (VMT) have been the main focus of attention. Other relevant dimensions, like trip cha...

  9. Belief in the "free choice" model of homosexuality: a correlate of homophobia in registered nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackwell, Christopher W

    2007-01-01

    A great amount of social science research has supported the positive correlation between heterosexuals' belief in the free choice model of homosexuality and homophobia. Heterosexuals who believe gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender (GLBT) persons consciously choose their sexual orientation and practice a lifestyle conducive to that choice are much more likely to possess discriminatory, homophobic, homonegative, and heterosexist beliefs. In addition, these individuals are less likely to support gay rights initiatives such as nondiscrimination policies or same-sex partner benefits in the workplace or hate crime enhancement legislation inclusive of GLBT persons. Although researchers have demonstrated this phenomenon in the general population, none have specifically assessed it in the nursing workforce. The purpose of this study was to examine registered nurses' overall levels of homophobia and attitudes toward a workplace policy protective of gays and lesbians. These variables were then correlated with belief in the free choice model of homosexuality. Results indicated that belief in the free choice model of homosexuality was the strongest predictor of homophobia in nurses. Implications for nursing leadership and management, nursing education, and future research are discussed. PMID:19042903

  10. Of Songs and Men: a Model for Multiple Choice with Herding

    CERN Document Server

    Borghesi, C; Borghesi, Christian; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

    2006-01-01

    We propose a generic model for multiple choice situations in the presence of herding and compare it with recent empirical results from a Web-based music market experiment. The model predicts a phase transition between a weak imitation phase and a strong imitation, `fashion' phase, where choices are driven by peer pressure and the ranking of individual preferences is strongly distorted at the aggregate level. The model can be calibrated to reproduce the main experimental results of Salganik et al. (Science, 311, pp. 854-856 (2006)); we show in particular that the value of the social influence parameter can be estimated from the data. In one of the experimental situation, this value is found to be close to the critical value of the model.

  11. The relation of secondary student's career choice readiness to a six-phase model of career decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Hirschi, Andreas; Läge, Damian

    2007-01-01

    Based on common aspects of recent models of career decision-making (CDM) a sixphase model of CDM for secondary students is presented and empirically evaluated. The study tested the hypothesis that students who are in later phases possess more career choice readiness and consider different numbers of career alternatives. 266 Swiss secondary students completed measures tapping phase of CDM, career choice readiness, and number of considered career options. Career choice readiness showed an incre...

  12. A Two-State Model of Purchase Incidence and Brand Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Randolph E. Bucklin; James M. Lattin

    1991-01-01

    The authors develop and test a probabilistic model of purchase incidence and brand choice for frequently purchased consumer products. The model incorporates two ways of shopping in a category. Shoppers who have planned their purchasing (made a decision before entering the store) do not process in-store information and show no response to point-of-purchase promotions. Consumers who have not planned their purchasing in a category (deciding at the point of purchase) may process in-store informat...

  13. Modelling Reference-Dependent and Labelling Effects in Consumers’ Functional Food Choices

    OpenAIRE

    Zou, Ning Ning (Helen); Hobbs, Jill E.

    2008-01-01

    This paper examines the reference-dependent and labelling effects when consumers make choices about functional foods, and explores how changes in reference points could alter individuals’ preferences. Functional food (probiotic yogurt) and regular food (regular yogurt) are used as examples to explore the potential reference-dependent effects and labelling effects. A consumer utility model with reference point effects is developed. The paper also explores how to model the effects of different ...

  14. Modelling Reference-Dependent and Labelling Effects in Consumers’ Functional Food Choices

    OpenAIRE

    Zou, Ning Ning (Helen)

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines the reference-dependent and labelling effects when consumers make choices about functional foods, and explores how changes in reference points could alter individuals’ preferences. Functional food (Omega 3 milk) and regular food (regular milk) are used as examples to explore the potential reference-dependent effects and labelling effects. A consumer utility model with reference point effects is developed. The paper also explores how to model the effects of different labell...

  15. Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models in Continuous Time with an Application to Retail Competition

    OpenAIRE

    Peter Arcidiacono; Patrick Bayer; Jason R. Blevins; Paul B. Ellickson

    2012-01-01

    This paper develops a dynamic model of retail competition and uses it to study the impact of the expansion of a new national competitor on the structure of urban markets. In order to accommodate substantial heterogeneity (both observed and unobserved) across agents and markets, the paper first develops a general framework for estimating and solving dynamic discrete choice models in continuous time that is computationally light and readily applicable to dynamic games. In the proposed framework...

  16. A discrete choice model with social interactions; with an application to high school teen behavior.

    OpenAIRE

    Adriaan R. Soetevent; Kooreman, Peter

    2007-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete choice interaction model with a finite number of agents. We characterize its equilibrium properties - in particular the correspondence between the interaction strength, the number of agents, and the set of equilibria - and propose to estimate the model by means of simulation methods. In an empirical application, we analyze the individual behavior of some 8000 high school teenagers from almost 500 different school classes. We find endogenous social interaction ...

  17. Choices and Changes: Eccles’ Expectancy-Value Model and Upper-Secondary School Students’ Longitudinal Reflections about their Choice of a STEM Education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-01-01

    in their last year in upper-secondary school concerning their choice of tertiary education were examined using quantitative EV-MBC surveys and repeated qualitative interviews. This article presents the analyses of three cases in detail. The analytical focus was whether the factors indicated in the EV-MBC model...

  18. Reprint of "Acquisition of choice in concurrent chains: Assessing the cumulative decision model".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, Randolph C

    2016-06-01

    Concurrent chains is widely used to study pigeons' choice between terminal links that can vary in delay, magnitude, or probability of reinforcement. We review research on the acquisition of choice in this procedure. Acquisition has been studied with a variety of research designs, and some studies have incorporated no-food trials to allow for timing and choice to be observed concurrently. Results show that: Choice can be acquired rapidly within sessions when terminal links change unpredictably; under steady-state conditions, acquisition depends on both initial- and terminal-link schedules; and initial-link responding is mediated by learning about the terminal-link stimulus-reinforcer relations. The cumulative decision model (CDM) proposed by Christensen and Grace (2010) and Grace and McLean (2006, 2015) provides a good description of within-session acquisition, and correctly predicts the effects of initial and terminal-link schedules in steady-state designs (Grace, 2002a). Questions for future research include how abrupt shifts in preference within individual sessions and temporal control of terminal-link responding can be modeled. PMID:27150444

  19. Modeling of Intercity Travel Mode Choice Behavior for Non-Business Trips within Libya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manssour A. Abdulsalam Bin Miskeen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study is pioneer in investigating mode-choice behavior of inter-city traveler for non-business trips in Libya, for this we have successfully developed and validated disaggregate behavioral inter-city non-business travel mode choice model, based on a binary logit structure. Four major inter-city corridors in Libya were the source of the data required for the development of the model. Data was collected based on interviews with 576 respondents. Majority of these data (nearly two-thirds were used for calibrating the model, whereas, the remaining data were used for validating the model. This study, which is the first of its kind in Libya, investigates the intercity traveler’s mode-choice behavior for non-business trips. The proposed model elucidates car/air transport users’ behavior and investigates their responses to the scenario of enhancing intercity transport. We have also investigated the prospect of car drivers shifting to air transport, based on a case of a diminution in airplane out-of-vehicle travel time (access time to airport, waiting time at airport and egress time from airport. We deem that the findings of this study will facilitate all the levels of decision-makers to sensibly allocate resources for the enhancement of air transportation

  20. Variation in LCA results for disposable polystyrene beverage cups due to multiple data sets and modelling choices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harst, van der E.J.M.; Potting, J.

    2014-01-01

    Life Cycle Assessments (LCAs) of the same products often result in different, sometimes even contradictory outcomes. Reasons for these differences include using different data sets and deviating modelling choices. This paper purposely used different data sets and modelling choices to identify how th

  1. Sensorimotor learning biases choice behavior: a learning neural field model for decision making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Klaes

    Full Text Available According to a prominent view of sensorimotor processing in primates, selection and specification of possible actions are not sequential operations. Rather, a decision for an action emerges from competition between different movement plans, which are specified and selected in parallel. For action choices which are based on ambiguous sensory input, the frontoparietal sensorimotor areas are considered part of the common underlying neural substrate for selection and specification of action. These areas have been shown capable of encoding alternative spatial motor goals in parallel during movement planning, and show signatures of competitive value-based selection among these goals. Since the same network is also involved in learning sensorimotor associations, competitive action selection (decision making should not only be driven by the sensory evidence and expected reward in favor of either action, but also by the subject's learning history of different sensorimotor associations. Previous computational models of competitive neural decision making used predefined associations between sensory input and corresponding motor output. Such hard-wiring does not allow modeling of how decisions are influenced by sensorimotor learning or by changing reward contingencies. We present a dynamic neural field model which learns arbitrary sensorimotor associations with a reward-driven Hebbian learning algorithm. We show that the model accurately simulates the dynamics of action selection with different reward contingencies, as observed in monkey cortical recordings, and that it correctly predicted the pattern of choice errors in a control experiment. With our adaptive model we demonstrate how network plasticity, which is required for association learning and adaptation to new reward contingencies, can influence choice behavior. The field model provides an integrated and dynamic account for the operations of sensorimotor integration, working memory and action

  2. A Joint Specification Test for Response Probabilities in Unordered Multinomial Choice Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masamune Iwasawa

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Estimation results obtained by parametric models may be seriously misleading when the model is misspecified or poorly approximates the true model. This study proposes a test that jointly tests the specifications of multiple response probabilities in unordered multinomial choice models. The test statistic is asymptotically chi-square distributed, consistent against a fixed alternative and able to detect a local alternative approaching to the null at a rate slower than the parametric rate. We show that rejection regions can be calculated by a simple parametric bootstrap procedure, when the sample size is small. The size and power of the tests are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments.

  3. Modelling the Choices of Romanian Consumers in the Context of the Current Economic Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madalina Balau

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Consumption is a key factor of the nowadays post-industrial society, while it is a real engine ofproduction, diversity of offer and demand, and motive for innovation. On the other side, consumption can beharmful to the same society and to environment if it develops in an un-sustainable way. That is why,understanding the consumer behaviour is of great importance not only to satisfy his or her needs but also tofind appropriate means to educate people and issue policies that can lead to sustainable consumption anddevelopment. The paper presents some models and theories regarding the consumer behaviour and proposesmeans to influence consumption characteristics and habits of people. The modelling approach isdeterministic, using Expectancy-Value theory, taking into account not only explicit (rational choices but alsohabits or incentives (non-rational choices, in a weighted quantitative model. The novelty of the approachconsists in the way non-rational choices are taken into consideration for the existing model, and on how it isused in determining directions for sustainable consumption. The study is developed on public data regardingconsumers of general goods in Romania.

  4. The role of model female quality in the mate choice copying behaviour of sailfin mollies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Sarah E; Ryan, Michael J

    2006-06-22

    Female mate choice copying is a socially mediated mate choice behaviour, in which a male's attractiveness to females increases if he was previously chosen by another female as a mate. Although copying has been demonstrated in numerous species, little is known about the specific benefits it confers to copying females. Here we demonstrate that the mate choice behaviour of female sailfin mollies (Poecilia latipinna) is influenced by the phenotypic quality of model females with whom males are observed consorting. Test females choosing between two males of similar body length were found to significantly increase time spent with previously non-preferred males after having observed them with a relatively high-quality female. Conversely, females were found to significantly decrease time spent with previously preferred males after having observed them with a relatively low-quality female. Female mate choice copying might be maintained by selection based on the heuristic value it provides females choosing between males whose quality differences are not easily distinguishable.

  5. DYNAMIC MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF URBAN SPATIAL PATTERN (RESIDENTIAL CHOICE OF LOCATION: MOBILITY VS EXTERNALITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahma Fitriani

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Household’s residential choice of location determines urban spatial pattern (e.g sprawl. The static model which assumes that the choice has been affected by distance to the CBD and location specific externality, fails to capture the evoution of the pattern over time. Therefore this study proposes a dynamic version of the model. It analyses the effects of externalities on the optimal solution of development decision as function of time. It also derives the effect of mobility and externality on the rate of change of development pattern through time. When the increasing rate of utility is not as significant as the increasing rate of income, the externalities will delay the change of urban spatial pattern over time. If the mobility costs increase by large amount relative to the increase of income and inflation rate, then the mobility effect dominates the effects of externalities in delaying the urban expansion.

  6. Interactive Web service choice-making based on extended QoS model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Quality of Service (QoS) is a key factor in Web service advertising, choosing and runtime monitoring. Web service QoS is multi-faceted, fuzzy and dynamic. Current researches focus on implementation level performance assurance, ignoring domain specific or application level metrics which are also very important to service users. Industry Web service standards lack QoS expression. The support for QoS based service choice-making is very limited. We proposed an extended Web service QoS model based on configurable fuzzy synthetic evaluation system. Web service QoS is evaluated dynamically according to the service context. A QoS requirement description model is also given for service QoS requirement definition. An interactive Web service choice-making process is described, which takes QoS as a key factor when choosing from functionally equivalent services.

  7. Modeling the choice of working when the set of job opportunities is latent

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Yun

    2000-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the decision of "working" versus "not working" within a discrete choice framework, where number of available jobs is confined and related to individual characteristics. In this way the market constraint from the demand side is taken into account. We also accommodate the notion of job specific non-pecuniary attributes in the specification of preferences. We apply panel data to estimate the model. To this end a particular estimation method is developed that accounts for...

  8. Identifying Business Models for Photovoltaic Systems with Storage in the Italian Market: A Discrete Choice Experiment

    OpenAIRE

    Galassi, Veronica; Madlener, Reinhard

    2014-01-01

    The future diffusion of photovoltaic systems relies heavily on the ability of utilities and policy-makers to properly valorize such volatile renewable energy-sources technologies. We conduct a discrete choice experiment to investigate which types of business models for photovoltaic systems could bring the highest utility to the Italian households. Our focus is not just on the costs and benefits of a photovoltaic system, but also on features like system control and maintenance, the duration of...

  9. Incorporating Demographic Variables in Brand Choice Models: An Indivisible Alternatives Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Kirthi Kalyanam; Putler, Daniel S.

    1997-01-01

    Incorporating demographic variables in brand choice models is conceptually appealing and has numerous managerial benefits. Retailers and brand managers can assess geodemographic variations in demand and marketing mix response in order to implement micromarketing strategies. For example, a retailer planning to locate a new outlet can get some sense of the differences in demand patterns and price and promotion sensitivities in the new trading area in order to make initial stocking, inventory, p...

  10. articles: Amenities and urban residential structure: An amenity-embedded model of residential choice

    OpenAIRE

    Cheol-Joo Cho

    2001-01-01

    The basic model of residential choice, which has been established by generalizing Von Thünen's concept to an urban context, states that the equilibrium structure of residential land use is determined by the trade-off between accessibility and space. The willingness to sacrifice space for accessibility differs between households and depends on household income. The equilibrium land use is the outcome of the interplay between the income elasticity of space consumption and the income elasticity ...

  11. Effect of model choice and sample size on statistical tolerance limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Statistical tolerance limits are estimates of large (or small) quantiles of a distribution, quantities which are very sensitive to the shape of the tail of the distribution. The exact nature of this tail behavior cannot be ascertained brom small samples, so statistical tolerance limits are frequently computed using a statistical model chosen on the basis of theoretical considerations or prior experience with similar populations. This report illustrates the effects of such choices on the computations

  12. Modeling Mental Health Information Preferences During the Early Adult Years: A Discrete Choice Conjoint Experiment

    OpenAIRE

    Charles E. Cunningham; Walker, John R; Eastwood, John D.; Westra, Henny; Rimas, Heather; Chen, Yvonne; Marcus, Madalyn; Swinson, Richard P.; Bracken, Keyna; ,

    2013-01-01

    Although most young adults with mood and anxiety disorders do not seek treatment, those who are better informed about mental health problems are more likely to use services. The authors used conjoint analysis to model strategies for providing information about anxiety and depression to young adults. Participants (N = 1,035) completed 17 choice tasks presenting combinations of 15 four-level attributes of a mental health information strategy. Latent class analysis yielded 3 segments. The virtua...

  13. Route Choice Model Considering Generalized Travel Cost Based on Game Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Feng Yu-qin; Leng Jun-qiang; Xie Zhong-Yu; Zhang Gui-e; He Yi

    2013-01-01

    This paper aims at testing the influence of emission factors on travelers’ behavior of route choice. The generalized travel cost is defined as the linear weighted sum of emission factors, travel time, and travel time reliability. The relational model of exhaust volume and traffic volume is established using the BPR (Bureau of Public Road) function to calculate the cost of travel regarding emission. The BPR function is used to measure the road segment travel time, while the reliability is used...

  14. Momentous Choices: Testing nonstandard decision models in health and housing markets

    OpenAIRE

    Filko, Martin

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ During more than half a century, several strands of research contributed to the development of decision theory. The standard normative model for choice under uncertainty – expected utility – was given a foundation by von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944) and Savage (1954). It advised – and expected – reasonable actors to evaluate the consequences of their actions by the weighted sum of their utility, using probabilities of these consequences as weights. Utilities wer...

  15. Disaggregating consumer demands for organic and genetically modified foods using the Choice Modelling technique

    OpenAIRE

    Donaghy, Peter; Rolfe, John; Bennett, Jeffrey W.

    2002-01-01

    Issues concerning consumer demands for genetically modified and organic food remain highly topical in Australia. It is unclear how consumers perceive issues associated with food production such as food safety, environmental impacts or animal welfare. It is also unclear how consumers might value potential changes in those issues. This paper reports on research using the choice modelling technique to estimate and compare consumer demand for genetically modified and organic foods. The case study...

  16. Disaggregating consumer demands for organic and genetically modified foods using the Choice Modelling technique.

    OpenAIRE

    Donaghy, Peter; Rolfe, John; Bennett, Jeffrey W.

    2002-01-01

    Issues concerning consumer demands for genetically modified and organic food remain highly topical in Australia. It is unclear how consumers perceive issues associated with food production such as food safety, environmental impacts or animal welfare. It is also unclear how consumers might value potential changes in those issues. This paper reports on research using the choice modelling technique to estimate and compare consumer demand for genetically modified and organic foods. The case study...

  17. A Plug-in Hybrid Consumer Choice Model with Detailed Market Segmentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Zhenhong [ORNL; Greene, David L [ORNL

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes a consumer choice model for projecting U.S. demand for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) in competition among 13 light-duty vehicle technologies over the period 2005-2050. New car buyers are disaggregated by region, residential area, attitude toward technology risk, vehicle usage intensity, home parking and work recharging. The nested multinomial logit (NMNL) model of vehicle choice incorporates daily vehicle usage distributions, refueling and recharging availability, technology learning by doing, and diversity of choice among makes and models. Illustrative results are presented for a Base Case, calibrated to the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2009 Reference Updated Case, and an optimistic technology scenario reflecting achievement of U.S. Department of Energy s (DOE s) FreedomCAR goals. PHEV market success is highly dependent on the degree of technological progress assumed. PHEV sales reach one million in 2037 in the Base Case but in 2020 in the FreedomCARGoals Case. In the FreedomCARGoals Case, PHEV cumulative sales reach 1.5 million by 2015. Together with efficiency improvements in other technologies, petroleum use in 2050 is reduced by about 45% from the 2005 level. After technological progress, PHEV s market success appears to be most sensitive to recharging availability, consumers attitudes toward novel echnologies, and vehicle usage intensity. Successful market penetration of PHEVs helps bring down battery costs for electric vehicles (EVs), resulting in a significant EV market share after 2040.

  18. Constraining snow model choices in a transitional snow environment with intensive observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wayand, N. E.; Massmann, A.; Clark, M. P.; Lundquist, J. D.

    2014-12-01

    The performance of existing energy balance snow models exhibits a large spread in the simulated snow water equivalent, snow depth, albedo, and surface temperature. Indentifying poor model representations of physical processes within intercomparison studies is difficult due to multiple differences between models as well as non-orthogonal metrics used. Efforts to overcome these obstacles for model development have focused on a modeling framework that allows multiple representations of each physical process within one structure. However, there still exists a need for snow study sites within complex terrain that observe enough model states and fluxes to constrain model choices. In this study we focus on an intensive snow observational site located in the maritime-transitional snow climate of Snoqualmie Pass WA (Figure 1). The transitional zone has been previously identified as a difficult climate to simulate snow processes; therefore, it represents an ideal model-vetting site. From two water years of intensive observational data, we have learned that a more honest comparison with observations requires that the modeled states or fluxes be as similar to the spatial and temporal domain of the instrument, even if it means changing the model to match what is being observed. For example, 24-hour snow board observations do not capture compaction of the underlying snow; therefore, a modeled "snow board" was created that only includes new snow accumulation and new snow compaction. We extend this method of selective model validation to all available Snoqualmie observations to constrain model choices within the Structure for Understanding Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) framework. Our end goal is to provide a more rigorous and systematic method for diagnosing problems within snow models at a site given numerous snow observations.

  19. Analyzing Multiple-Choice Questions by Model Analysis and Item Response Curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wattanakasiwich, P.; Ananta, S.

    2010-07-01

    In physics education research, the main goal is to improve physics teaching so that most students understand physics conceptually and be able to apply concepts in solving problems. Therefore many multiple-choice instruments were developed to probe students' conceptual understanding in various topics. Two techniques including model analysis and item response curves were used to analyze students' responses from Force and Motion Conceptual Evaluation (FMCE). For this study FMCE data from more than 1000 students at Chiang Mai University were collected over the past three years. With model analysis, we can obtain students' alternative knowledge and the probabilities for students to use such knowledge in a range of equivalent contexts. The model analysis consists of two algorithms—concentration factor and model estimation. This paper only presents results from using the model estimation algorithm to obtain a model plot. The plot helps to identify a class model state whether it is in the misconception region or not. Item response curve (IRC) derived from item response theory is a plot between percentages of students selecting a particular choice versus their total score. Pros and cons of both techniques are compared and discussed.

  20. Coupled Ising models and interdependent discrete choices under social influence in homogeneous populations

    CERN Document Server

    del Río, Ana Fernández

    2011-01-01

    The use of statistical physics to study problems of social sciences is motivated and its current state of the art briefly reviewed, in particular for the case of discrete choice making. The coupling of two binary choices is studied in some detail, using an Ising model for each of the decision variables (the opinion or choice moments or spins, socioeconomic equivalents to the magnetic moments or spins). Toy models for two different types of coupling are studied analytically and numerically in the mean field (infinite range) approximation. This is equivalent to considering a social influence effect proportional to the fraction of adopters or average magnetisation. In the nonlocal case, the two spin variables are coupled through a Weiss mean field type term. In a socioeconomic context, this can be useful when studying individuals of two different groups, making the same decision under social influence of their own group, when their outcome is affected by the fraction of adopters of the other group. In the local ...

  1. A Personal Value-Based Model of College Students' Aptitudes and Expected Choice Behavior Regarding Retailing Careers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shim, Soyeon; Warrington, Patti; Goldsberry, Ellen

    1999-01-01

    A study of 754 retail management students developed a value-based model of career attitude and expected choice behavior. Findings indicate that personal values had an influence on all aspects of retail career attitudes, which then had a direct effect on expected choice behavior. (Contains 55 references.) (Author/JOW)

  2. PRO-ECOLOGICAL ACTIONS AND CONSUMER CHOICES IN THE MODEL OF RESPONSIBLE BUSINESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarzyna Olejniczak

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The current farming conditions cause that recent social and environmental aspects of management play an important role for the functioning of modern enterprises. This results from the fact that on the one hand the activities of modern enterprises are determined by the surroundings’ increasing complexity, on the other hand the growing demands of various groups of stakeholders build company’s success based not only on a quest to maximize their profi t, but primarily on taking the responsibility for the consequences of their actions. Additionally, the growing awareness of consumers makes more and more enterprises implement the concept of corporate social responsibility (CSR in their actions. For this reason, it is important to discuss about the actions and choices of consumers in the model of CSR. The aim of this article is to present the results of the research on customers‘s environmentally conscious activities and choices.

  3. Applied welfare economics with discrete choice models: implications of theory for empirical specification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Batley, Richard; Ibáñez Rivas, Juan Nicolás

    2013-01-01

    The apparatus of the Random Utility Model (RUM) first emerged in the early 1960s, with Marschak (1960) and Block and Marschak (1960) translating models originally developed for discriminant analysis in psychophysics (Thurstone, 1927) to the alternative domain of discrete choice analysis...... in economics. Whilst some researchers were quick to see its practical potential (e.g. McFadden, 1968, 1975), it was not until the late 1970s and early 1980s that RUM was equipped with a reasonably comprehensive theoretical rationale in terms of the economics of consumption. An important tenet of this rationale...

  4. A Day-to-Day Route Choice Model Based on Reinforcement Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fangfang Wei

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Day-to-day traffic dynamics are generated by individual traveler’s route choice and route adjustment behaviors, which are appropriate to be researched by using agent-based model and learning theory. In this paper, we propose a day-to-day route choice model based on reinforcement learning and multiagent simulation. Travelers’ memory, learning rate, and experience cognition are taken into account. Then the model is verified and analyzed. Results show that the network flow can converge to user equilibrium (UE if travelers can remember all the travel time they have experienced, but which is not necessarily the case under limited memory; learning rate can strengthen the flow fluctuation, but memory leads to the contrary side; moreover, high learning rate results in the cyclical oscillation during the process of flow evolution. Finally, both the scenarios of link capacity degradation and random link capacity are used to illustrate the model’s applications. Analyses and applications of our model demonstrate the model is reasonable and useful for studying the day-to-day traffic dynamics.

  5. 'No-choice' options within a nested logit model: one model is insufficient

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blaeij, de A.T.; Nunes, P.A.L.D.; Bergh, van den J.C.J.M.

    2007-01-01

    We examine the impact of providing a 'no-choice' option in attribute-based valuation experiments. The aim of the experiment was to assess monetary values of cockle fishery management practices in the Dutch Wadden Sea for different stakeholder groups, namely Dutch citizens, local residents and touris

  6. Socio-demographic characteristics affecting sport tourism choices: A structural model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataša Slak Valek

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Effective tourism management in the field of sports tourism requires an understanding of differences in socioeconomic characteristics both within and between different market segments. Objective: In the broad tourism market demographic characteristics have been extensively analyzed for differences in destination choices, however little is known about demographic factors affecting sport tourists' decisions. Methods: A sample of Slovenian sports tourists was analyzed using data from a comprehensive survey of local and outbound tourist activity conducted by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia in 2008. After data weighting the information for 353,783 sports related trips were available for analysis. The research model adopted suggests that four socio-demographic characteristics (gender, age, level of education and income significantly affect a tourist's choice of sports related travel either locally within Slovenia or to a foreign country. Furthermore the destination (local or foreign has an influence on the choice of the type of accommodation selected and the tourist's total expenditure for the trip. For testing the first part of our model (the socio-demographic characteristics effects a linear regression was used, and for the final part of the model (the selection of accommodation type and travel expenditure t-test were applied. Results: The result shows the standardized β regression coefficients are all statistically significant at the .001 level for the tested socio-demographic characteristics and also the overall regression model was statistically significant at .001 level. Conclusions: With these results the study confirmed that all the selected socio-demographic characteristics have a significant influence on the sport-active tourist when choosing between a domestic and foreign tourism destination which in turn affect the type of accommodation chosen and the level of expenditure while travelling.

  7. A comparison of methods for representing random taste heterogeneity in discrete choice models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Hess, Stephane

    2009-01-01

    This paper reports the findings of a systematic study using Monte Carlo experiments and a real dataset aimed at comparing the performance of various ways of specifying random taste heterogeneity in a discrete choice model. Specifically, the analysis compares the performance of two recent advanced...... distributions. Both approaches allow the researcher to increase the number of parameters as desired. The paper provides a range of evidence on the ability of the various approaches to recover various distributions from data. The two advanced approaches are comparable in terms of the likelihoods achieved...

  8. A hybrid mode choice model to account for the dynamic effect of inertia over time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cherchi, Elisabetta; Börjesson, Maria; Bierlaire, Michel

    gathered over a continuous period of time, six weeks, to study both inertia and the influence of habits. Tendency to stick with the same alternative is measured through lagged variables that link the current choice with the previous trip made with the same purpose, mode and time of day. However, the lagged...... effect of the previous trips is not constant but it depends on the individual propensity to undertake habitual trips which is captured by the individual specific latent variable. And the frequency of the trips in the previous week is used as an indicator of the habitual behavior. The model estimation...

  9. Fertility behavior and labor force participation: a model of lexicographic choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encarnacion, J J

    1982-01-01

    Evidence exists that a smaller family size is usually associated with female employment and that fertility rises with family income and the wife's education at relatively low levels of income and education. Only at higher levels is there the generally expected relationship that fertility declines with more education or income. Due to the fact that a woman's labor force participation and her fertility are aspects of behavior of the same person (or couple), they should be explained by a model of choice. Such a model is presented, and empirical evidence is cited. In particular, the model allows for a fertility decline even before a decline in mortality during the demographic transition. The model of choice involves threshold values of education and income, such that the marginal effects of these variables on fertility and labor supply are qualitatively different below and above the threshold. The model is in conformity with cross-section regressions using Philippine data and appears to explain why various studies give positive, zero, or negative regression coefficients relating fertility to education and income when standard linear regression specifications are used. Such results would depend on the proportions of families falling below and above the thresholds in the sample of observations. The model also implies that the fertility effects of a child mortality decline on those proportions, meaning that one could have lower mortality without affecting fertility levels. From a policy perspective, the broad implications of the model are distrubing. Development that raises very low income and education levels would increase fertility and so would a more egalitarian distribution of the same low aggregate income. It is necessary to shift the underlying functions so that the thresholds become as low as possible, but general economic development may be too slow for this purpose.

  10. Relevance Of Utility Maximization In Student University Choice – A Consumption-Based Model For Higher Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric S. SCHWARTZ

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper applies a model of utility-maximization to better understand the university choice process. Student decision-making for university choice is conceptualized as a purchase decision process through which students weigh the costs of colleges or universities they choose against their perceived benefits of attending these institutions. The key issues are the impact of consumer’s preferences, income, tuition, and costs in college decision-making. From this perspective, the paper describes the relationship between utility maximization and educational demand, effects of tuition increases, tuition discounting, and financial aid subsidies on university choice. A decision-making scheme for educational consumption is used in order to identify the stages of the university choice process and to predict the behavior of consumers in the higher education marketplace. The analysis points to the need to better inform students about the cost of postsecondary education which is a highly relevant aspect in the university choice process.

  11. Women's career choices in chemistry: Motivations, perceptions, and a conceptual model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grunert, Megan L.

    Statistics showing the under-representation of women at all levels within the physical sciences abound, particularly at the graduate and faculty levels. Women chemists choosing an academic career tend to select teaching institutions over research institutions. This study examined women at the graduate and faculty levels through interviews and the construction of participant narratives to better understand why many women opt out of a career in academic research. Specific attention was paid to women's decision-making processes and what motivates women to choose careers, the rewards and challenges associated with different careers, and the perception of different careers contribute to their decisions. The participant narratives were analyzed on a cross-case basis and constructivist grounded theory was used to develop a model about women's decision-making regarding their careers. Additionally, preliminary work has suggested that graduate students have inaccurate perceptions of careers in academia. Interviews with faculty at teaching and research institutions provided a clearer picture of what each type of career entails. Career-choice motivators, rewards, and challenges were identified for each of the faculty groups. It was found that graduate student women have inaccurate perceptions of academic research careers, which affects how they make career decisions. A model of career choice shows interactions between motivation and perception that guide the career decision-making process. By better understanding these women and their motivations, changes can be made to foster inclusion and accommodation for women and other underrepresented groups in academic chemistry.

  12. Determinants of modelling choices for 1-D free-surface flow and erosion issues in hydrology: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheviron, B.; Moussa, R.

    2015-09-01

    This review paper investigates the determinants of modelling choices, for numerous applications of 1-D free-surface flow and erosion equations, across multiple spatiotemporal scales. We aim to characterize each case study by its signature composed of model refinement (Navier-Stokes: NS, Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes: RANS, Saint-Venant: SV or Approximations of Saint-Venant: ASV), spatiotemporal scales (domain length: L from 1 cm to 1000 km; temporal scale: T from 1 second to 1 year; flow depth: H from 1 mm to 10 m), flow typology (Overland: O, High gradient: Hg, Bedforms: B, Fluvial: F) and dimensionless numbers (Dimensionless time period T*, Reynolds number Re, Froude number Fr, Slope S, Inundation ratio Λz, Shields number θ). The determinants of modelling choices are therefore sought in the interplay between flow characteristics, cross-scale and scale-independent views. The influence of spatiotemporal scales on modelling choices is first quantified through the expected correlation between increasing scales and decreasing model refinements, identifying then flow typology a secondary but mattering determinant in the choice of model refinement. This finding is confirmed by the discriminating values of several dimensionless numbers, that prove preferential associations between model refinements and flow typologies. This review is intended to help each modeller positioning his (her) choices with respect to the most frequent practices, within a generic, normative procedure possibly enriched by the community for a larger, comprehensive and updated image of modelling strategies.

  13. Density-dependence across dispersal stages in a hermaphrodite land snail: insights from discrete choice models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahirel, Maxime; Vardakis, Michalis; Ansart, Armelle; Madec, Luc

    2016-08-01

    Dispersal movements, i.e. movements leading to gene flow, are key behaviours with important, but only partially understood, consequences for the dynamics and evolution of populations. In particular, density-dependent dispersal has been widely described, yet how it is determined by the interaction with individual traits, and whether density effects differ between the three steps of dispersal (departure, transience, and settlement), remains largely unknown. Using a semi-natural landscape, we studied dispersal choices of Cornu aspersum land snails, a species in which negative effects of crowding are well documented, and analysed them using dispersal discrete choice models, a new method allowing the analysis of dispersal decisions by explicitly considering the characteristics of all available alternatives and their interaction with individual traits. Subadults were more dispersive than adults, confirming existing results. In addition, departure and settlement were both density dependent: snails avoided crowded patches at both ends of the dispersal process, and subadults were more reluctant to settle into crowded patches than adults. Moreover, we found support for carry-over effects of release density on subsequent settlement decisions: snails from crowded contexts were more sensitive to density in their subsequent immigration choices. The fact that settlement decisions were informed indicates that costs of prospecting are not as important as previously thought in snails, and/or that snails use alternative ways to collect information, such as indirect social information (e.g. trail following). The observed density-dependent dispersal dynamics may play an important role in the ability of C. aspersum to successfully colonise frequently human-disturbed habitats around the world. PMID:27139427

  14. Research on group expandable optimization decision-ms,king model for construction programme choice

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yan Hongyan

    2012-01-01

    Aiming at the decision-making problem of construction programme choice, this paper advanced a new group expandable optimization decision-making model. Various factors were comprehensively considered, and the new multi- attribute evaluation index system was established. Based on the assumption that decision-makers were rational, this pa- per formed a group of rational preferences through extracting the personal preferences pertinently, so the decision-makers position matrix was determined. The decision-makers position matrix integrated values given by group decision-makers to construction programme comprised a matrix, of which the entropy theory for data mining was adopted in this paper to determine the attribute weights. A decision was made by using the extension decision method. Eventually, the feasibility and practicability of the model were verified by the example.

  15. On the choice of statistical models for estimating occurrence and extinction from animal surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorazio, Robert M

    2007-11-01

    In surveys of natural animal populations the number of animals that are present and available to be detected at a sample location is often low, resulting in few or no detections. Low detection frequencies are especially common in surveys of imperiled species; however, the choice of sampling method and protocol also may influence the size of the population that is vulnerable to detection. In these circumstances, probabilities of animal occurrence and extinction will generally be estimated more accurately if the models used in data analysis account for differences in abundance among sample locations and for the dependence between site-specific abundance and detection. Simulation experiments are used to illustrate conditions wherein these types of models can be expected to outperform alternative estimators of population site occupancy and extinction. PMID:18051646

  16. Making Energy-Efficiency and Productivity Investments in Commercial Buildings: Choice of Investment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, D.W.

    2002-05-16

    This study examines the decision to invest in buildings and the types of investment decision rules that may be employed to inform the ''go--no go'' decision. There is a range of decision making tools available to help in investment choices, which range from simple rules of thumb such as payback periods, to life-cycle analysis, to decision theoretic approaches. Payback period analysis tends to point toward lower first costs, whereas life-cycle analysis tends to minimize uncertainties over future events that can affect profitability. We conclude that investment models that integrate uncertainty offer better explanations for the behavior that is observed, i.e., people tend to delay investments in technologies that life-cycle analysis finds cost-effective, and these models also lead to an alternative set of policies targeted at reducing of managing uncertainty.

  17. On the choice of statistical models for estimating occurrence and extinction from animal surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorazio, R.M.

    2007-01-01

    In surveys of natural animal populations the number of animals that are present and available to be detected at a sample location is often low, resulting in few or no detections. Low detection frequencies are especially common in surveys of imperiled species; however, the choice of sampling method and protocol also may influence the size of the population that is vulnerable to detection. In these circumstances, probabilities of animal occurrence and extinction will generally be estimated more accurately if the models used in data analysis account for differences in abundance among sample locations and for the dependence between site-specific abundance and detection. Simulation experiments are used to illustrate conditions wherein these types of models can be expected to outperform alternative estimators of population site occupancy and extinction. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

  18. Does a peer model's task proficiency influence children's solution choice and innovation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Lara A; Kendal, Rachel L; Flynn, Emma G

    2015-11-01

    The current study investigated whether 4- to 6-year-old children's task solution choice was influenced by the past proficiency of familiar peer models and the children's personal prior task experience. Peer past proficiency was established through behavioral assessments of interactions with novel tasks alongside peer and teacher predictions of each child's proficiency. Based on these assessments, one peer model with high past proficiency and one age-, sex-, dominance-, and popularity-matched peer model with lower past proficiency were trained to remove a capsule using alternative solutions from a three-solution artificial fruit task. Video demonstrations of the models were shown to children after they had either a personal successful interaction or no interaction with the task. In general, there was not a strong bias toward the high past-proficiency model, perhaps due to a motivation to acquire multiple methods and the salience of other transmission biases. However, there was some evidence of a model-based past-proficiency bias; when the high past-proficiency peer matched the participants' original solution, there was increased use of that solution, whereas if the high past-proficiency peer demonstrated an alternative solution, there was increased use of the alternative social solution and novel solutions. Thus, model proficiency influenced innovation. PMID:26143092

  19. College Students' Choice Modeling of Taking On-Line International Business Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Robert S.

    2006-01-01

    To understand students' choice behavior of taking on-line international business courses, a survey study is conducted to collect information regarding students' actual choices of taking on-line courses and potential factors that may have impacts on students' choices of online learning. Potential factors such as enrollment status, demographic…

  20. Benefit Transfer from Multiple Contingent Experiments: A Flexible Two-Step Model Combining Individual Choice Data with Community Characteristics

    OpenAIRE

    Klaus Moeltner; Johnston, Robert J.; Rosenberger, Randall S.

    2009-01-01

    This study proposes a new approach to utilize information from existing choice experiments to predict policy outcomes for a transfer setting. Recognizing the difficulties from pooling raw data from experiments with different designs and sub-populations we first re-estimate all underlying Random Utility Models individually, and then combine them in a second stage process to form a weighted mixture density for the generation of policy-relevant welfare estimates. Using data from recent choice ex...

  1. Using stated preference discrete choice modelling to evaluate the introduction of varicella vaccination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Jane; Kenny, Patricia; King, Madeleine; Louviere, Jordan; Viney, Rosalie; Yeoh, Angela

    2002-07-01

    Applications of stated preference discrete choice modelling (SPDCM) in health economics have been used to estimate consumer willingness to pay and to broaden the range of consequences considered in economic evaluation. This paper demonstrates how SPDCM can be used to predict participation rates, using the case of varicella (chickenpox) vaccination. Varicella vaccination may be cost effective compared to other public health programs, but this conclusion is sensitive to the proportion of the target population immunised. A choice experiment was conducted on a sample of Australian parents to predict uptake across a range of hypothetical programs. Immunisation rates would be increased by providing immunisation at no cost, by requiring it for school entry, by increasing immunisation rates in the community and decreasing the incidence of mild and severe side effects. There were two significant interactions; price modified the effect of both support from authorities and severe side effects. Country of birth was the only significant demographic characteristic. Depending on aspects of the immunisation program, the immunisation rates of children with Australian-born parents varied from 9% to 99% while for the children with parents born outside Australia they varied from 40% to 99%. This demonstrates how SPDCM can be used to understand the levels of attributes that will induce a change in the decision to immunise, the modification of the effect of one attribute by another, and subgroups in the population. Such insights can contribute to the optimal design and targeting of health programs.

  2. Choice Overload, Satisficing Behavior, and Price Distribution in a Time Allocation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Álvarez

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent psychological research indicates that consumers that search exhaustively for the best option of a market product—known as maximizers—eventually feel worse than consumers who just look for something good enough—called satisficers. We formulate a time allocation model to explore the relationship between different distributions of prices of the product and the satisficing behavior and the related welfare of the consumer. We show numerically that, as the number of options becomes large, the maximizing behavior produces less and less welfare and eventually leads to choice paralysis—these are effects of choice overload—whereas satisficing conducts entail higher levels of satisfaction and do not end up in paralysis. For different price distributions, we provide consistent evidence that maximizers are better off for a low number of options, whereas satisficers are better off for a sufficiently large number of options. We also show how the optimal satisficing behavior is affected when the underlying price distribution varies. We provide evidence that the mean and the dispersion of a symmetric distribution of prices—but not the shape of the distribution—condition the satisficing behavior of consumers. We also show that this need not be the case for asymmetric distributions.

  3. Modeling the bullying prevention program preferences of educators: a discrete choice conjoint experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Charles E; Vaillancourt, Tracy; Rimas, Heather; Deal, Ken; Cunningham, Lesley; Short, Kathy; Chen, Yvonne

    2009-10-01

    We used discrete choice conjoint analysis to model the bullying prevention program preferences of educators. Using themes from computerized decision support lab focus groups (n = 45 educators), we composed 20 three-level bullying prevention program design attributes. Each of 1,176 educators completed 25 choice tasks presenting experimentally varied combinations of the study's attribute levels. Latent class analysis yielded three segments with different preferences. Decision Sensitive educators (31%) preferred that individual schools select bullying prevention programs. In contrast, Support Sensitive educators (51%) preferred that local school boards chose bullying prevention programs. This segment preferred more logistical and social support at every stage of the adoption, training, implementation, and long term maintenance processes. Cost Sensitive educators (16%) showed a stronger preference for programs minimizing costs, training, and implementation time demands. They felt prevention programs were less effective and that the time and space in the curriculum for bullying prevention was less adequate. They were less likely to believe that bullying prevention was their responsibility and more likely to agree that prevention was the responsibility of parents. All segments preferred programs supported by the anecdotal reports of colleagues from other schools rather than those based on scientific evidence. To ensure that the bullying prevention options available reflect the complex combination of attributes influencing real world adoption decisions, program developers need to accommodate the differing views of the Decision, Support, and Cost Sensitive segments while maximizing the support of parents and students. PMID:19455413

  4. Choice Model and Influencing Factor Analysis of Travel Mode for Migrant Workers: Case Study in Xi’an, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Chen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the basic theory and methods of disaggregate choice model, the influencing factors in travel mode choice for migrant workers are analyzed, according to 1366 data samples of Xi’an migrant workers. Walking, bus, subway, and taxi are taken as the alternative parts of travel modes for migrant workers, and a multinomial logit (MNL model of travel mode for migrant workers is set up. The validity of the model is verified by the hit rate, and the hit rates of four travel modes are all greater than 80%. Finally, the influence of different factors affecting the choice of travel mode is analyzed in detail, and the inelasticity of each factor is analyzed with the elasticity theory. Influencing factors such as age, education level, and monthly gross income have significant impact on travel choice mode for migrant workers. The elasticity values of education degree are greater than 1, indicating that it on the travel mode choice is of elasticity, while the elasticity values of gender, industry distribution, and travel purpose are less than 1, indicating that these factors on travel mode choice are of inelasticity.

  5. Amount of information needed for model choice in Approximate Bayesian Computation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stocks, Michael; Siol, Mathieu; Lascoux, Martin; De Mita, Stéphane

    2014-01-01

    Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) has become a popular technique in evolutionary genetics for elucidating population structure and history due to its flexibility. The statistical inference framework has benefited from significant progress in recent years. In population genetics, however, its outcome depends heavily on the amount of information in the dataset, whether that be the level of genetic variation or the number of samples and loci. Here we look at the power to reject a simple constant population size coalescent model in favor of a bottleneck model in datasets of varying quality. Not only is this power dependent on the number of samples and loci, but it also depends strongly on the level of nucleotide diversity in the observed dataset. Whilst overall model choice in an ABC setting is fairly powerful and quite conservative with regard to false positives, detecting weaker bottlenecks is problematic in smaller or less genetically diverse datasets and limits the inferences possible in non-model organism where the amount of information regarding the two models is often limited. Our results show it is important to consider these limitations when performing an ABC analysis and that studies should perform simulations based on the size and nature of the dataset in order to fully assess the power of the study.

  6. Valence-dependent influence of serotonin depletion on model-based choice strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worbe, Y; Palminteri, S; Savulich, G; Daw, N D; Fernandez-Egea, E; Robbins, T W; Voon, V

    2016-05-01

    Human decision-making arises from both reflective and reflexive mechanisms, which underpin goal-directed and habitual behavioural control. Computationally, these two systems of behavioural control have been described by different learning algorithms, model-based and model-free learning, respectively. Here, we investigated the effect of diminished serotonin (5-hydroxytryptamine) neurotransmission using dietary tryptophan depletion (TD) in healthy volunteers on the performance of a two-stage decision-making task, which allows discrimination between model-free and model-based behavioural strategies. A novel version of the task was used, which not only examined choice balance for monetary reward but also for punishment (monetary loss). TD impaired goal-directed (model-based) behaviour in the reward condition, but promoted it under punishment. This effect on appetitive and aversive goal-directed behaviour is likely mediated by alteration of the average reward representation produced by TD, which is consistent with previous studies. Overall, the major implication of this study is that serotonin differentially affects goal-directed learning as a function of affective valence. These findings are relevant for a further understanding of psychiatric disorders associated with breakdown of goal-directed behavioural control such as obsessive-compulsive disorders or addictions. PMID:25869808

  7. A Two-Dimensional CA Traffic Model with Dynamic Route Choices Between Residence and Workplace

    CERN Document Server

    Fang, Jun; Chen, Xi-Qun; Qin, Zheng

    2015-01-01

    The Biham, Middleton and Levine (BML) model is extended to describe dynamic route choices between the residence and workplace in cities. The traffic dynamic in the city with a single workplace is studied from the velocity diagram, arrival time probability distribution, destination arrival rate and convergence time. The city with double workplaces is also investigated to compared with a single workplace within the framework of four modes of urban growth. The transitional region is found in the velocity diagrams where the system undergoes a continuous transition from a moving phase to a completely jamming phase. We perform a finite-size scaling analysis of the critical density from a statistical point of view and the order parameter of this jamming transition is estimated. It is also found that statistical properties of urban traffic are greatly influenced by the urban area, workplace area and urban layout.

  8. Opponent actor learning (OpAL): modeling interactive effects of striatal dopamine on reinforcement learning and choice incentive.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Anne G E; Frank, Michael J

    2014-07-01

    The striatal dopaminergic system has been implicated in reinforcement learning (RL), motor performance, and incentive motivation. Various computational models have been proposed to account for each of these effects individually, but a formal analysis of their interactions is lacking. Here we present a novel algorithmic model expanding the classical actor-critic architecture to include fundamental interactive properties of neural circuit models, incorporating both incentive and learning effects into a single theoretical framework. The standard actor is replaced by a dual opponent actor system representing distinct striatal populations, which come to differentially specialize in discriminating positive and negative action values. Dopamine modulates the degree to which each actor component contributes to both learning and choice discriminations. In contrast to standard frameworks, this model simultaneously captures documented effects of dopamine on both learning and choice incentive-and their interactions-across a variety of studies, including probabilistic RL, effort-based choice, and motor skill learning. PMID:25090423

  9. Opponent actor learning (OpAL): modeling interactive effects of striatal dopamine on reinforcement learning and choice incentive.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Anne G E; Frank, Michael J

    2014-07-01

    The striatal dopaminergic system has been implicated in reinforcement learning (RL), motor performance, and incentive motivation. Various computational models have been proposed to account for each of these effects individually, but a formal analysis of their interactions is lacking. Here we present a novel algorithmic model expanding the classical actor-critic architecture to include fundamental interactive properties of neural circuit models, incorporating both incentive and learning effects into a single theoretical framework. The standard actor is replaced by a dual opponent actor system representing distinct striatal populations, which come to differentially specialize in discriminating positive and negative action values. Dopamine modulates the degree to which each actor component contributes to both learning and choice discriminations. In contrast to standard frameworks, this model simultaneously captures documented effects of dopamine on both learning and choice incentive-and their interactions-across a variety of studies, including probabilistic RL, effort-based choice, and motor skill learning.

  10. Modeling the hospital safety partnership preferences of patients and their families: a discrete choice conjoint experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cunningham CE

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Charles E Cunningham,1 Tracy Hutchings,2 Jennifer Henderson,2 Heather Rimas,1 Yvonne Chen1 1Department of Psychiatry and Behavioural Neurosciences, Faculty of Health Sciences, Michael G DeGroote School of Medicine, McMaster University, 2Department of Quality and Performance, Hamilton Health Sciences, Hamilton, ON, Canada Background: Patients and their families play an important role in efforts to improve health service safety. Objective: The objective of this study is to understand the safety partnership preferences of patients and their families. Method: We used a discrete choice conjoint experiment to model the safety partnership preferences of 1,084 patients or those such as parents acting on their behalf. Participants made choices between hypothetical safety partnerships composed by experimentally varying 15 four-level partnership design attributes. Results: Participants preferred an approach to safety based on partnerships between patients and staff rather than a model delegating responsibility for safety to hospital staff. They valued the opportunity to participate in point of service safety partnerships, such as identity and medication double checks, that might afford an immediate risk reduction. Latent class analysis yielded two segments. Actively engaged participants (73.3% comprised outpatients with higher education, who anticipated more benefits to safety partnerships, were more confident in their ability to contribute, and were more intent on participating. They were more likely to prefer a personal engagement strategy, valued scientific evidence, preferred a more active approach to safety education, and advocated disclosure of errors. The passively engaged segment (26.7% anticipated fewer benefits, were less confident in their ability to contribute, and were less intent on participating. They were more likely to prefer an engagement strategy based on signage. They preferred that staff explain why they thought patients should help

  11. A review of urban residential choice models using agent-based modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huang, Qingxu; Parker, Dawn C.; Filatova, Tatiana; Sun, Shipeng

    2014-01-01

    Urban land-use modeling methods have experienced substantial improvements in the last several decades. With the advancement of urban land-use change theories and modeling techniques, a considerable number of models have been developed. The relatively young approach, agent-based modeling, provides ur

  12. Computational models of the Posner simple and choice reaction time tasks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina eFeher Da Silva

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The landmark experiments by Posner in the late 1970s have shown thatreaction time (RT is faster when the stimulus appears in an expectedlocation, as indicated by a cue; since then, the so-called Posnertask has been considered a ``gold standard'' test of spatial attention.It is thus fundamental to understand the neural mechanisms involvedin performing it. To this end, we have developed a Bayesian detectionsystem and small integrate-and-fire neural networks, which modeledsensory and motor circuits respectively, and optimized them to perform thePosner task under different cue type proportions and noise levels.In doing so, main findings of experimental research on RT were replicated:the relative frequency effect, suboptimal RTs and significant errorrates due to noise and invalid cues, slower RT for choice RT tasksthan for simple RT tasks, fastest RTs for valid cues and slowest RTsfor invalid cues. Analysis of the optimized systems revealed thatthe employed mechanisms were consistent with related findings in neurophysiology.Our models predict that (1 the results of a Posner task may be affectedby the relative frequency of valid and neutral trials, (2 in simpleRT tasks, input from multiple locations are added together to composea stronger signal, and (3 the cue affects motor circuits more stronglyin choice RT tasks than in simple RT tasks. In discussing the computationaldemands of the Posner task, attention has often been described asa filter that protects the nervous system, whose capacity is limited,from information overload. Our models, however, reveal that the mainproblems that must be overcome to perform the Posner task effectivelyare distinguishing signal from external noise and selectingthe appropriate response in the presence of internal noise.

  13. Airline Choice for Domestic Flights in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: An Application of the Conditional Logit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, Marcelo Baena

    2006-01-01

    Using the conditional (multinomial) LOGIT model, this paper addresses airline choice in the S o Paulo Metropolitan Area. There are two airports in this region, where two, three or even four airlines compete for passengers flying to an array of domestic destinations. The airline choice is believed to be a result of the tradeoff passengers face among flight cost, flight frequency and airline performance. It was found that the lowest fare better explains airline choice than the highest fare, whereas direct flight frequencies give better explanation to airline choice than indirect (connections and stops) and total (direct plus indirect) ones. Out of 15 variables tested, the lowest fare was the variable that best explained airline choice. However, its signal was counterintuitive (positive) possibly because the cheapest airline was offering few flights, so passengers overwhelmingly failed to choose the cheapest airline. The model specification most adjusted to the data considered the lowest fare, direct flight frequency in the travel day and period (morning or afternoon peak) and airline age. Passengers departing from S o Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) airport make their airline choice in terms of cost whereas those from Sao Paulo-Congonhas Airport (CGH) airport do not. Finally, senior passengers place more importance on airline age than junior passengers.

  14. Patterns of Reinforcement and the Essential Value of Brands: II. Evaluation of a Model of Consumer Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Ji; Foxall, Gordon R.; Doyle, John R.

    2012-01-01

    We employ a behavioral-economic equation put forward by Hursh and Silberberg (2008) to explain human consumption behavior among substitutable food brands, applying a consumer-choice model--the behavioral perspective model (BPM; Foxall, 1990/2004, 2005). In this study, we apply the behavioral-economic equation to human economic consumption data. We…

  15. Axis of travel: Modeling non-work destination choice with GPS data

    OpenAIRE

    Arthur Huang; David Levinson

    2015-01-01

    Based on in-vehicle GPS travel data in the Minneapolis - St. Paul Metropolitan Area, this research investigates how land use, road network structure, and route fa- miliarity influence home-based single-destination choice. We propose a new choice set formation approach which combines survival analysis and random selection. Our empirical findings reveal that: (1) Walkable opportunities and diversity of services at the destination influence destination choice. (2) Route-specific network measures...

  16. Electronic communication and manager's media choice : a structural equation modelling from rational and social perspectives

    OpenAIRE

    Krabuanrat, T.

    2000-01-01

    This exploratory study examines the communication media choice of managers. Despite a substantial body of theories on media choice, inadequacies are apparent in the literature particularly in relation to modem communication technologies. A field study approach was adopted to explore some of these inadequacies and to study the media choice of subject from a manager background. Overall, within the limitations and confines of this exploratory study, this thesis has made the following contributio...

  17. Determinants of modelling choices for 1-D free-surface flow and morphodynamics in hydrology and hydraulics: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheviron, Bruno; Moussa, Roger

    2016-09-01

    This review paper investigates the determinants of modelling choices, for numerous applications of 1-D free-surface flow and morphodynamic equations in hydrology and hydraulics, across multiple spatiotemporal scales. We aim to characterize each case study by its signature composed of model refinement (Navier-Stokes: NS; Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes: RANS; Saint-Venant: SV; or approximations to Saint-Venant: ASV), spatiotemporal scales and subscales (domain length: L from 1 cm to 1000 km; temporal scale: T from 1 s to 1 year; flow depth: H from 1 mm to 10 m; spatial step for modelling: δL; temporal step: δT), flow typology (Overland: O; High gradient: Hg; Bedforms: B; Fluvial: F), and dimensionless numbers (dimensionless time period T*, Reynolds number Re, Froude number Fr, slope S, inundation ratio Λz, Shields number θ). The determinants of modelling choices are therefore sought in the interplay between flow characteristics and cross-scale and scale-independent views. The influence of spatiotemporal scales on modelling choices is first quantified through the expected correlation between increasing scales and decreasing model refinements (though modelling objectives also show through the chosen spatial and temporal subscales). Then flow typology appears a secondary but important determinant in the choice of model refinement. This finding is confirmed by the discriminating values of several dimensionless numbers, which prove preferential associations between model refinements and flow typologies. This review is intended to help modellers in positioning their choices with respect to the most frequent practices, within a generic, normative procedure possibly enriched by the community for a larger, comprehensive and updated image of modelling strategies.

  18. Combining spatial modeling and choice experiments for the optimal spatial allocation of wind turbines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Although wind power is currently the most efficient source of renewable energy, the installation of wind turbines (WT) in landscapes often leads to conflicts in the affected communities. We propose that such conflicts can be mitigated by a welfare-optimal spatial allocation of WT in the landscape so that a given energy target is reached at minimum social costs. The energy target is motivated by the fact that wind power production is associated with relatively low CO2 emissions. Social costs comprise energy production costs as well as external costs caused by harmful impacts on humans and biodiversity. We present a modeling approach that combines spatially explicit ecological-economic modeling and choice experiments to determine the welfare-optimal spatial allocation of WT in West Saxony, Germany. The welfare-optimal sites balance production and external costs. Results indicate that in the welfare-optimal allocation the external costs represent about 14% of the total costs (production costs plus external costs). Optimizing wind power production without consideration of the external costs would lead to a very different allocation of WT that would marginally reduce the production costs but strongly increase the external costs and thus lead to substantial welfare losses. - Highlights: → We combine modeling and economic valuation to optimally allocate wind turbines. → Welfare-optimal allocation balances energy production costs and external costs. → External costs (impacts on the environment) can be substantial. → Ignoring external costs leads to suboptimal allocations and welfare losses.

  19. Combining spatial modeling and choice experiments for the optimal spatial allocation of wind turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drechsler, Martin, E-mail: martin.drechsler@ufz.de [UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Department of Ecological Modelling, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig (Germany); Ohl, Cornelia [German Emissions Trading Authority, Bismarckplatz 1, 14193 Berlin (Germany); Meyerhoff, Juergen [Berlin Institute of Technology, Institute for Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning, Strasse des 17. Juni 145, 10623 Berlin (Germany); Eichhorn, Marcus [UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Department of Ecological Modelling, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig (Germany); Monsees, Jan [UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Department of Economics, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig (Germany)

    2011-06-15

    Although wind power is currently the most efficient source of renewable energy, the installation of wind turbines (WT) in landscapes often leads to conflicts in the affected communities. We propose that such conflicts can be mitigated by a welfare-optimal spatial allocation of WT in the landscape so that a given energy target is reached at minimum social costs. The energy target is motivated by the fact that wind power production is associated with relatively low CO{sub 2} emissions. Social costs comprise energy production costs as well as external costs caused by harmful impacts on humans and biodiversity. We present a modeling approach that combines spatially explicit ecological-economic modeling and choice experiments to determine the welfare-optimal spatial allocation of WT in West Saxony, Germany. The welfare-optimal sites balance production and external costs. Results indicate that in the welfare-optimal allocation the external costs represent about 14% of the total costs (production costs plus external costs). Optimizing wind power production without consideration of the external costs would lead to a very different allocation of WT that would marginally reduce the production costs but strongly increase the external costs and thus lead to substantial welfare losses. - Highlights: > We combine modeling and economic valuation to optimally allocate wind turbines. > Welfare-optimal allocation balances energy production costs and external costs. > External costs (impacts on the environment) can be substantial. > Ignoring external costs leads to suboptimal allocations and welfare losses.

  20. Diffusion model for one-choice reaction-time tasks and the cognitive effects of sleep deprivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratcliff, Roger; Van Dongen, Hans P A

    2011-07-01

    One-choice reaction-time (RT) tasks are used in many domains, including assessments of motor vehicle driving and assessments of the cognitive/behavioral consequences of sleep deprivation. In such tasks, subjects are asked to respond when they detect the onset of a stimulus; the dependent variable is RT. We present a cognitive model for one-choice RT tasks that uses a one-boundary diffusion process to represent the accumulation of stimulus information. When the accumulated evidence reaches a decision criterion, a response is initiated. This model is distinct in accounting for the RT distributions observed for one-choice RT tasks, which can have long tails that have not been accurately captured by earlier cognitive modeling approaches. We show that the model explains performance on a brightness-detection task (a "simple RT task") and on a psychomotor vigilance test. The latter is used extensively to examine the clinical and behavioral effects of sleep deprivation. For the brightness-detection task, the model explains the behavior of RT distributions as a function of brightness. For the psychomotor vigilance test, it accounts for lapses in performance under conditions of sleep deprivation and for changes in the shapes of RT distributions over the course of sleep deprivation. The model also successfully maps the rate of accumulation of stimulus information onto independently derived predictions of alertness. The model is a unified, mechanistic account of one-choice RT under conditions of sleep deprivation. PMID:21690336

  1. Opportunities for Young Children to Make Choices in a Model Interdisciplinary and Inclusive Preschool Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolivette, Kristine; McCormick, Katherine; McLaren, Elizabeth; Steed, Elizabeth A.

    2009-01-01

    The provision of choice making is frequently cited as an indicator of developmentally appropriate practice for young children with and without disabilities; however, there is little empirical evidence regarding the rate of delivery of choices within the preschool classroom. The delivery of intervention strategies by a classroom-based…

  2. A linear programming model of diet choice of free-living beavers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nolet, BA; VanderVeer, PJ; Evers, EGJ; Ottenheim, MM

    1995-01-01

    Linear programming has been remarkably successful in predicting the diet choice of generalist herbivores. We used this technique to test the diet choice of free-living beavers (Castor fiber) in the Biesbosch (The Netherlands) under different Foraging goals, i.e. maximization of intake of energy, nit

  3. Retail Location Choice with Complementary Goods: An Agent-Based Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Arthur; Levinson, David

    This paper models the emergence of retail clusters on a supply chain network comprised of suppliers, retailers, and consumers. Firstly, an agent-based model is proposed to investigate retail location distribution in a market of two complementary goods. The methodology controls for supplier locales and unit sales prices of retailers and suppliers, and a consumer’s willingness to patronize a retailer depends on the total travel distance of buying both goods. On a circle comprised of discrete locations, retailers play a non-cooperative game of location choice to maximize individual profits. Our findings suggest that the probability distribution of the number of clusters in equilibrium follows power law and that hierarchical distribution patterns are much more likely to occur than the spread-out ones. In addition, retailers of complementary goods tend to co-locate at supplier locales. Sensitivity tests on the number of retailers are also performed. Secondly, based on the County Business Patterns (CBP) data of Minneapolis-St. Paul from US Census 2000 database, we find that the number of clothing stores and the distribution of food stores at the zip code level follows power-law distribution.

  4. A multi-model multi-objective study to evaluate the role of metric choice on sensitivity assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haghnegahdar, Amin; Razavi, Saman; Wheater, Howard; Gupta, Hoshin

    2016-04-01

    Sensitivity analysis (SA) is an essential tool for providing insight into model behavior, calibration, and uncertainty assessment. It is often overlooked that the metric choice can significantly change the assessment of model sensitivity. In order to identify important hydrological processes across various case studies, we conducted a multi-model multi-criteria sensitivity analysis using a novel and efficient technique, Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces (VARS). The analysis was conducted using three physically-based hydrological models, applied at various scales ranging from small (hillslope) to large (watershed) scale. In each case, the sensitivity of simulated streamflow to model processes (represented through parameters) were measured using different metrics selected based on various hydrograph characteristics including high flows, low flows, and volume. It is demonstrated that metric choice has a significant influence on SA results and must be aligned with study objectives. Guidelines for identifying important model parameters from a multi-objective SA perspective is discussed as part of this study.

  5. A personal vehicle transactions choice model for use in forecasting demand for future alternative-fuel vehicles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ren, W.; Brownstone, D.; Bunch, D.S.; Golob, T.F.

    1994-12-31

    A discrete choice model has been developed in which the choice alternatives consist of vehicle transactions rather than portfolios of vehicle holdings. The model is based on responses to customized stated preference questions involving both hypothetical future vehicles and the household`s current vehicle holdings. The stated choices were collected from 4747 survey respondents located throughout most of the urbanized portions of California. Respondents were asked what their next vehicle transaction would most likely be (replace a current vehicle, add another vehicle, or dispose of a current vehicle), and respondents who wanted to replace or add vehicles were asked to indicate their most preferred vehicle from a set of six hypothetical vehicles. The hypothetical vehicles were described in terms of fourteen attributes, manipulated according to an experimental design. The transactions model is a multinomial logic model of the choice of the hypothetical vehicles and whether or not the hypothetical vehicle will be a replacement or addition to the household fleet. The model is conditioned on the household`s current vehicle stock, and the characteristics of the current vehicles are important explanators of the stated preference choices. In addition to the model estimates, forecasts are given for a base case scenario in 1998. The model is one component in a micro-simulation demand forecasting system being designed to produce annual forecasts of new and used vehicle demand by type of vehicle and geographic area. The system will also forecast annual vehicle miles traveled for all vehicles and recharging demand by time of day for electric vehicles. These results are potentially useful to utility companies in their demand-side management planning, to public agencies in their evaluation incentive schemes, and to manufacturers faced with designing and marketing alternative-fuel vehicles.

  6. Renewable energy systems the choice and modeling of 100% renewable solutions

    CERN Document Server

    Lund, Henrik

    2009-01-01

    How can society quickly convert to renewable energy? Can worldwide energy needs ever be met through 100% renewable sources? The answers to these questions rest largely on the perception of choice in the energy arena. It is of pivotal importance that engineers, researchers and policymakers understand what choices are available, and reasonable, when considering the design and deployment of new energy systems. The mission of this new book, written by one of the world's foremost experts in renewable power, is to arm these professionals with the tools and methodologies necessary to make smart choic

  7. The Fixed-Links Model in Combination with the Polynomial Function as a Tool for Investigating Choice Reaction Time Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweizer, Karl

    2006-01-01

    A model with fixed relations between manifest and latent variables is presented for investigating choice reaction time data. The numbers for fixation originate from the polynomial function. Two options are considered: the component-based (1 latent variable for each component of the polynomial function) and composite-based options (1 latent…

  8. Modeling individual and collective opinion in online social networks: drivers of choice behavior and effects of marketing interventions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koster, S.E.; Langley, D.J.

    2013-01-01

    We investigate factors influencing choice behavior in online social networks. We use twitter data from a Dutch television talent show. In study one, we implement a nested conditional logit model with latent classes. We find heterogeneous effects. For two latent classes, cognitive factors most strong

  9. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: does model choice affect survival estimates?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Troy W Grovenburg

    Full Text Available New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001-2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i

  10. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended...

  11. Modeling mental health information preferences during the early adult years: a discrete choice conjoint experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Charles E; Walker, John R; Eastwood, John D; Westra, Henny; Rimas, Heather; Chen, Yvonne; Marcus, Madalyn; Swinson, Richard P; Bracken, Keyna; The Mobilizing Minds Research Group

    2014-04-01

    Although most young adults with mood and anxiety disorders do not seek treatment, those who are better informed about mental health problems are more likely to use services. The authors used conjoint analysis to model strategies for providing information about anxiety and depression to young adults. Participants (N = 1,035) completed 17 choice tasks presenting combinations of 15 four-level attributes of a mental health information strategy. Latent class analysis yielded 3 segments. The virtual segment (28.7%) preferred working independently on the Internet to obtain information recommended by young adults who had experienced anxiety or depression. Self-assessment options and links to service providers were more important to this segment. Conventional participants (30.1%) preferred books or pamphlets recommended by a doctor, endorsed by mental health professionals, and used with a doctor's support. They would devote more time to information acquisition but were less likely to use Internet social networking options. Brief sources of information were more important to the low interest segment (41.2%). All segments preferred information about alternative ways to reduce anxiety or depression rather than psychological approaches or medication. Maximizing the use of information requires active and passive approaches delivered through old-media (e.g., books) and new-media (e.g., Internet) channels. PMID:24266450

  12. Preference pulses and the win-stay, fix-and-sample model of choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hachiga, Yosuke; Sakagami, Takayuki; Silberberg, Alan

    2015-11-01

    Two groups of six rats each were trained to respond to two levers for a food reinforcer. One group was trained on concurrent variable-ratio 20 extinction schedules of reinforcement. The second group was trained on a concurrent variable-interval 27-s extinction schedule. In both groups, lever-schedule assignments changed randomly following reinforcement; a light cued the lever providing the next reinforcer. In the next condition, the light cue was removed and reinforcer assignment strictly alternated between levers. The next two conditions redetermined, in order, the first two conditions. Preference pulses, defined as a tendency for relative response rate to decline to the just-reinforced alternative with time since reinforcement, only appeared during the extinction schedule. Although the pulse's functional form was well described by a reinforcer-induction equation, there was a large residual between actual data and a pulse-as-artifact simulation (McLean, Grace, Pitts, & Hughes, 2014) used to discern reinforcer-dependent contributions to pulsing. However, if that simulation was modified to include a win-stay tendency (a propensity to stay on the just-reinforced alternative), the residual was greatly reduced. Additional modifications of the parameter values of the pulse-as-artifact simulation enabled it to accommodate the present results as well as those it originally accommodated. In its revised form, this simulation was used to create a model that describes response runs to the preferred alternative as terminating probabilistically, and runs to the unpreferred alternative as punctate with occasional perseverative response runs. After reinforcement, choices are modeled as returning briefly to the lever location that had been just reinforced. This win-stay propensity is hypothesized as due to reinforcer induction.

  13. Incorporating environmental attitudes in discrete choice models: an exploration of the utility of the awareness of consequences scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoyos, David; Mariel, Petr; Hess, Stephane

    2015-02-01

    Environmental economists are increasingly interested in better understanding how people cognitively organise their beliefs and attitudes towards environmental change in order to identify key motives and barriers that stimulate or prevent action. In this paper, we explore the utility of a commonly used psychometric scale, the awareness of consequences (AC) scale, in order to better understand stated choices. The main contribution of the paper is that it provides a novel approach to incorporate attitudinal information into discrete choice models for environmental valuation: firstly, environmental attitudes are incorporated using a reinterpretation of the classical AC scale recently proposed by Ryan and Spash (2012); and, secondly, attitudinal data is incorporated as latent variables under a hybrid choice modelling framework. This novel approach is applied to data from a survey conducted in the Basque Country (Spain) in 2008 aimed at valuing land-use policies in a Natura 2000 Network site. The results are relevant to policy-making because choice models that are able to accommodate underlying environmental attitudes may help in designing more effective environmental policies. PMID:25461111

  14. Shannon's measure of information, path averages and the origins of random utility models in transport itinerary or mode choice analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Gaudry, Marc; Quinet, Emile

    2012-01-01

    We interpret the often mentioned difference between Logsum and average utility in terms of Shannon's (1948) information measure S, leading to a Path Aggregation THeorem (PATH). It states that, in transport networks where unique measures of the utility of multiple paths are required for demand model formulation purposes and the true path choice model is Multinomial Logit (MNL), constructs based on weighted averages of path characteristics derived from multipath assignments always underestimate...

  15. Factors Affecting the Choice of Software Life Cycle Models in the Software Industry-An Empirical Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vandana Bhattacherjee

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: The aim of this study was to present the results of the survey conducted with software professionals in a few Indian software companies. Approach: The study initially presents an overview of the common software life cycle models used in the software development. Results and Conclusion: The survey results revealed that the level of understanding of the user requirements is the most important fact in the choice of the life cycle model used in the software project. Project Complexity is the second most important factor. Man-machine Interaction is the least important factor in the choice of the life cycle model used in the software project. This study will be valuable for developers, analysts and project leaders in software organizations. This study was carried out with some boundaries like the number of companies, available resources, time constraints and so on.

  16. Impact of modeling Choices on Inventory and In-Cask Criticality Calculations for Forsmark 3 BWR Spent Fuel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-Gonzalez, Jesus S. [Univ. Politecnica de Madrid (Spain); Ade, Brian J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Bowman, Stephen M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Gauld, Ian C. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Ilas, Germina [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Marshall, William BJ J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Simulation of boiling water reactor (BWR) fuel depletion poses a challenge for nuclide inventory validation and nuclear criticality safety analyses. This challenge is due to the complex operating conditions and assembly design heterogeneities that characterize these nuclear systems. Fuel depletion simulations and in-cask criticality calculations are affected by (1) completeness of design information, (2) variability of operating conditions needed for modeling purposes, and (3) possible modeling choices. These effects must be identified, quantified, and ranked according to their significance. This paper presents an investigation of BWR fuel depletion using a complete set of actual design specifications and detailed operational data available for five operating cycles of the Swedish BWR Forsmark 3 reactor. The data includes detailed axial profiles of power, burnup, and void fraction in a very fine temporal mesh for a GE14 (10×10) fuel assembly. The specifications of this case can be used to assess the impacts of different modeling choices on inventory prediction and in-cask criticality, specifically regarding the key parameters that drive inventory and reactivity throughout fuel burnup. This study focused on the effects of the fidelity with which power history and void fraction distributions are modeled. The corresponding sensitivity of the reactivity in storage configurations is assessed, and the impacts of modeling choices on decay heat and inventory are addressed.

  17. , Testing a bioenergetics-based habitat choice model: bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus) responses to food availability and temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wildhaber, Mark L.; Crowder, Larry B.

    2011-01-01

    Using an automated shuttlebox system, we conducted patch choice experiments with 32, 8–12 g bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus) to test a behavioral energetics hypothesis of habitat choice. When patch temperature and food levels were held constant within patches but different between patches, we expected bluegill to choose patches that maximized growth based on the bioenergetic integration of food and temperature as predicted by a bioenergetics model. Alternative hypotheses were that bluegill may choose patches based only on food (optimal foraging) or temperature (behavioral thermoregulation). The behavioral energetics hypothesis was not a good predictor of short-term (from minutes to weeks) patch choice by bluegill; the behavioral thermoregulation hypothesis was the best predictor. In the short-term, food and temperature appeared to affect patch choice hierarchically; temperature was more important, although food can alter temperature preference during feeding periods. Over a 19-d experiment, mean temperatures occupied by fish offered low rations did decline as predicted by the behavioral energetics hypothesis, but the decline was less than 1.0 °C as opposed to a possible 5 °C decline. A short-term, bioenergetic response to food and temperature may be precluded by physiological costs of acclimation not considered explicitly in the behavioral energetics hypothesis.

  18. Ratings based versus choice-based latent class conjoint models - An empirical comparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vriens, M; Oppewal, H; Wedel, M

    1998-01-01

    Traditional ratings- or rankings-based conjoint analysis has been very popular in commercial practice. Recently, the choice-based conjoint approach has become an attractive alternative for measuring preference structures. However, little is known about the extent to which both approaches produce sim

  19. Dynamic Route Choice Modelling of the Effects of Travel Information using RP Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Moraes Ramos, G.

    2015-01-01

    Traffic congestion is experienced by a great number of travellers during peak hours and is directly influenced by travel-related decisions, such as route choice decisions. In order to minimize problems that arise from congestion, such as delays, uncertainty and environmental effects, there has been

  20. Single-parenthood by choice: Children’s socialization processes into a non-conventional family model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Poveda

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available In this article we present part of our findings from a research project focused on single-parent families by choice. The study collected data in three autonomous communities in Spain and includes interviews with mothers involved in single parent-projects (through adoption, foster parenting, assisted reproductive technologies or sexual fertilization through a known donor and their children about their family experiences, observations in different formative, associative and virtual spaces in which these families participate and a compilation of different documents on parenthood by choice. We focus on the way in which the children we have studied build their own non-conventional family model. We understand the construction of this model as a process of co-construction of the child's subjectivity in which mothers and other socializing agents play an active role.

  1. Modeling Gender-Based Differences in Mode Choice considering Time-Use Pattern: Analysis of Bicycle, Public Transit, and Car Use in Suzhou, China

    OpenAIRE

    Min Yang; Dan Li; Wei Wang; Jingyao Zhao; Xuewu Chen

    2013-01-01

    Activity-travel behavior differs between women and men. Previous researches dealing with gender differences mainly focus on travel in itself rather than the interaction between time-use pattern and travel mode choice. Based on the activity-travel survey data of Suzhou, China, multigroup structural equation modeling is adopted to explore the reason for gender-based differences in mode choice through comparing the interactions among sociodemographics, time-use pattern, and mode choice. The resu...

  2. A Pseudo-Sequential Choice Model for Valuing Multi-Attribute Environmental Policies or Programs in Contingent Valuation Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Volinskiy, Dmitriy; Bergstrom, John C.; Christopher M. Cornwell; Holmes, Thomas P.

    2010-01-01

    The assumption of independence of irrelevant alternatives in a sequential contingent valuation format should be questioned. Statistically, most valuation studies treat nonindependence as a consequence of unobserved individual effects. Another approach is to consider an inferential process in which any particular choice is part of a general choosing strategy of a survey respondent. A stochastic model is suggested, consistent with the reflexivity, transitivity, and continuity axioms of utility ...

  3. Educational decisions as rational choice? : an empirical test of the Erikson-Jonsson model for explaining educational attainment

    OpenAIRE

    Stocké, Volker

    2008-01-01

    This article tests the prediction from the Erikson-Jonsson (EJ) rational-choice model that altogether eight financial as well as non-financial dimensions of costs and returns of education, as well as the probability of being able to successfully realise educational credential simultaneously explain educational decisions. Among the included returns is a new measure for the families’ motive to avoid intergenerational status demotion. Furthermore, we test the pivotal assumption of instrumental r...

  4. U.S. Consumers' Willingness to Pay for Labeling Information on Genetically Modified Foods: An Application of Choice Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Onyango, Benjamin M.; Nayga, Rodolfo M.; Govindasamy, Ramu

    2005-01-01

    This study analyzes U.S. consumers' valuation of five types of genetically modified food labels on a cornflakes cereal product. Using a nationwide survey and choice-modeling framework, results indicate that consumers value the label "contains no genetically modified corn" the most with a mean willingness to pay of 20 more cents, followed by "USDA approved genetically modified corn" with a mean willingness to pay of 9 more cents, and "corn genetically modified to reduce pesticide residues in y...

  5. Identification of smallholder farmers and pastoralists' preferences for sheep breeding traits: choice model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duguma, G; Mirkena, T; Haile, A; Okeyo, A M; Tibbo, M; Rischkowsky, B; Sölkner, J; Wurzinger, M

    2011-12-01

    Identification of breeding objective traits pertinent to specific production environments with the involvement of target beneficiaries is crucial to the success of a breed improvement program. A choice experiment was conducted in four locations representing different production systems and agro-ecologies that are habitat to four indigenous sheep breeds (Afar, Bonga, Horro and Menz) of Ethiopia with the objective of identifying farmers'/pastoralists' preferences for sheep breeding traits. Following a synthesis of secondary information and diagnostic surveys, two communities per location consisting of 60 households each having at least four breeding ewes were identified. Producers' priority attributes used in the choice sets were identified through in-depth production system studies conducted from December 2007 to March 2008. On the basis of prior information, four to seven attributes were used to design choice sets with different profiles in order to capture results that mimic real life of the different communities. The attributes and levels chosen for the sheep profile were as follows: body size (large/small), coat color (brown/white/black), tail type (good/bad) for both rams and ewes; horn (polled/horned) and libido (active/poor) for rams; and lambing interval (three lambings in 2 years/two lambings in 2 years time), mothering ability (good mother/bad mother), twinning rate (twin bearer/single bearer) and milk yield (two cups per milking/one cup per milking) for ewes. A fractional factorial design was implemented to construct the alternatives included in the choice sets. The design resulted in a randomized selection of 48 sheep profiles (24 sets) for both sexes, which were grouped into four blocks with six choice sets each. An individual respondent was presented with one of the four blocks to make his/her choices. Results indicate that producers' trait preferences were heterogeneous except for body size in rams and mothering ability in ewes where nearly

  6. On the Origin-Destination Demands Linear Programming Model for Network Revenue Management with Customer Choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Liu

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we research the problem of network revenue management with customer choice based on the Origin-Destination (O-D demands. By dividing customers into different segments according to O-D pairs, we consider a network capacity control problem where each customer chooses the open product within the segment he belongs to. Starting with a Markov Decision Process (MDP formulation, we approximate the value function with an affine function of the state vector. The affine function approximation results in a new Linear Program (LP which yields tighter bounds than the Choice-based Deterministic Linear Program (CDLP. We give a column generation procedure for solving the LP within a desired optimality tolerance and present numerical results which show the policy perform from our solution approach can outperform that from the CDLP.

  7. Modelling international entry mode choice and speed: locational and cognitive insights in Pakistani small businesses

    OpenAIRE

    Majeed, Zahid

    2014-01-01

    This thesis intends to explore the process of foreign investment and entry mode choices of small firms from Pakistan. Pakistan being an epicure of global terrorism and ethnictension is an economy that is driven by small sector. The small sector is facing extreme difficulties to expand their international operations. This needs a comprehensive research to see beyond basic infrastructural impediments to small firms in Pakistan. What are the major behavioural and analytical impedimentsto their i...

  8. Using a topological model in psychology: Developing sense and choice categories

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mammen, Jens

    2016-01-01

    A duality of sense categories and choice categories is introduced to map two distinct but co-operating ways in which we as humans are relating actively to the world. We are sensing similarities and differences in our world of objects and persons, but we are also as bodies moving around in this wo......A duality of sense categories and choice categories is introduced to map two distinct but co-operating ways in which we as humans are relating actively to the world. We are sensing similarities and differences in our world of objects and persons, but we are also as bodies moving around...... in this world encountering, selecting, and attaching to objects beyond our sensory interactions and in this way also relating to the individual objects’ history. This duality is necessary if we shall understand man as relating to the historical depth of our natural and cultural world, and to understand our...... the gap between psychology as part of Naturwissenschaft and of Geisteswissenschaft, and at the same time establish a common frame for understanding cognition and affection, and our practical and cultural life (Mammen and Mironenko 2015). The duality of sense and choice categories can be described formally...

  9. Mathematical models, rational choice, and the search for Cold War culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Paul

    2010-06-01

    A key feature of the social, behavioral, and biological sciences after World War II has been the widespread adoption of new mathematical techniques drawn from cybernetics, information theory, and theories of rational choice. Historians of science have typically sought to explain this adoption either by reference to military patronage, or to a characteristic Cold War culture or discursive framework strongly shaped by the concerns of national security. This essay explores several episodes in the history of game theory--a mathematical theory of rational choice--that demonstrate the limits of such explanations. Military funding was indeed critical to game theory's early development in the 1940s. However, the theory's subsequent spread across disciplines ranging from political science to evolutionary biology was the result of a diverse collection of debates about the nature of "rationality" and "choice" that marked the Cold War era. These debates are not easily reduced to the national security imperatives that have been the focus of much historiography to date.

  10. Application of the Diffusion Model to Two-Choice Tasks for Adults 75−90 Years Old

    OpenAIRE

    Ratcliff, Roger; Thapar, Anjali; McKoon, Gail

    2007-01-01

    The effects of aging on simple 2-choice decision making was investigated with the diffusion model (R. Ratcliff, 1978). Data for 75- to 90-year-olds were collected and compared with previous data from 60-to 75-year-olds and college students for 5 tasks: a signal detection–like task, letter and brightness discrimination with masking, recognition memory, and lexical decision. The model fit the data well and therefore allows components of processing to be examined as a function of age. Compared w...

  11. Behavioral modeling of human choices reveals dissociable effects of physical effort and temporal delay on reward devaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein-Flügge, Miriam C; Kennerley, Steven W; Saraiva, Ana C; Penny, Will D; Bestmann, Sven

    2015-03-01

    There has been considerable interest from the fields of biology, economics, psychology, and ecology about how decision costs decrease the value of rewarding outcomes. For example, formal descriptions of how reward value changes with increasing temporal delays allow for quantifying individual decision preferences, as in animal species populating different habitats, or normal and clinical human populations. Strikingly, it remains largely unclear how humans evaluate rewards when these are tied to energetic costs, despite the surge of interest in the neural basis of effort-guided decision-making and the prevalence of disorders showing a diminished willingness to exert effort (e.g., depression). One common assumption is that effort discounts reward in a similar way to delay. Here we challenge this assumption by formally comparing competing hypotheses about effort and delay discounting. We used a design specifically optimized to compare discounting behavior for both effort and delay over a wide range of decision costs (Experiment 1). We then additionally characterized the profile of effort discounting free of model assumptions (Experiment 2). Contrary to previous reports, in both experiments effort costs devalued reward in a manner opposite to delay, with small devaluations for lower efforts, and progressively larger devaluations for higher effort-levels (concave shape). Bayesian model comparison confirmed that delay-choices were best predicted by a hyperbolic model, with the largest reward devaluations occurring at shorter delays. In contrast, an altogether different relationship was observed for effort-choices, which were best described by a model of inverse sigmoidal shape that is initially concave. Our results provide a novel characterization of human effort discounting behavior and its first dissociation from delay discounting. This enables accurate modelling of cost-benefit decisions, a prerequisite for the investigation of the neural underpinnings of effort

  12. Effect of the choice of stagnation density in data-fitted first- and second-order traffic models

    CERN Document Server

    Fan, Shimao

    2013-01-01

    For a class of data-fitted macroscopic traffic models, the influence of the choice of the stagnation density on the model accuracy is investigated. This work builds on an established framework of data-fitted first-order Lighthill-Whitham-Richards (LWR) models and their second-order Aw-Rascle-Zhang (ARZ) generalizations. These models are systematically fitted to historic fundamental diagram data, and then their predictive accuracy is quantified via a version of the three-detector problem test, considering vehicle trajectory data and single-loop sensor data. The key outcome of this study is that with commonly suggested stagnation densities of 120 vehicles/km/lane and above, information travels backwards too slowly. It is then demonstrated that the reduction of the stagnation density to 90-100 vehicles/km/lane addresses this problem and results in a significant improvement of the predictive accuracy of the considered models.

  13. Modelling discrete choice variables in assessment of teaching staff work satisfaction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihai Mieilă

    Full Text Available Levels of self-reported job satisfaction and motivation were measured by survey in a sample of 286 teachers. Using the discrete choice framework, the paper tries to assess the relevance of the considered indicators (demographic, social, motivational in overall teaching work satisfaction. The findings provide evidence that job satisfaction is correlated significantly with level of university degree held by the teacher, type of secondary school where the teacher is enrolled, revenues, and salary-tasks adequacy. This is important for the Romanian economy, since the education system is expected to provide future human resources with enhanced skills and abilities.

  14. How urban environment affects travel behavior? Integrated Choice and Latent Variable Model for Travel Schedules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    La Paix, Lissy; Bierlaire, Michel; Cherchi, Elisabetta;

    2013-01-01

    The relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour is not a new problem. Neighbourhood characteristics may affect mobility of dwellers in different ways, such as frequency of trips, mode used, structure of the tours, and so on. At the same time, qualitative issues related...... in Madrid. A total of 943 individuals were interviewed in three different neighbourhoods. The results show that neighbourhood attributes have indeed a significant impact on the choice of the type of tours either directly and through the propensity to travel. The propensity to travel has a different impact...

  15. Portfolio choice problems an introductory survey of single and multiperiod models

    CERN Document Server

    Chapados, Nicolas

    2011-01-01

    This brief offers a broad, yet concise, coverage of portfolio choice, containing both application-oriented and academic results, along with abundant pointers to the literature for further study. It cuts through many strands of the subject, presenting not only the classical results from financial economics but also approaches originating from information theory, machine learning and operations research. This compact treatment of the topic will be valuable to students entering the field, as well as practitioners looking for a broad coverage of the topic.

  16. A simplified differential game model for the optimal choice of tax rate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Rong; TONG Yu-yuan; XU Jun-ying

    2004-01-01

    A classical problem on optimal choice of tax rate from the perspective of differential game approach is studied. Under some appropriate assumptions on the profit and utility functions, the open-loop Stackelberg equilibrium solution which is timedependent is obtained. Result shows that 1) the optimal strategies derived from differential game and traditional unilateral optimal control approaches are different; 2) both marginal profit rate and the market rate of interest have great effect on the equilibrium solution; and 3) the government should think about the firm's potential reaction when selecting tax rates and the timing of taxation.

  17. Reproductive fitness and dietary choice behavior of the genetic model organism Caenorhabditis elegans under semi-natural conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freyth, Katharina; Janowitz, Tim; Nunes, Frank; Voss, Melanie; Heinick, Alexander; Bertaux, Joanne; Scheu, Stefan; Paul, Rüdiger J

    2010-10-01

    Laboratory breeding conditions of the model organism C. elegans do not correspond with the conditions in its natural soil habitat. To assess the consequences of the differences in environmental conditions, the effects of air composition, medium and bacterial food on reproductive fitness and/or dietary-choice behavior of C. elegans were investigated. The reproductive fitness of C. elegans was maximal under oxygen deficiency and not influenced by a high fractional share of carbon dioxide. In media approximating natural soil structure, reproductive fitness was much lower than in standard laboratory media. In seminatural media, the reproductive fitness of C. elegans was low with the standard laboratory food bacterium E. coli (γ-Proteobacteria), but significantly higher with C. arvensicola (Bacteroidetes) and B. tropica (β-Proteobacteria) as food. Dietary-choice experiments in semi-natural media revealed a low preference of C. elegans for E. coli but significantly higher preferences for C. arvensicola and B. tropica (among other bacteria). Dietary-choice experiments under quasi-natural conditions, which were feasible by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) of bacteria, showed a high preference of C. elegans for Cytophaga-Flexibacter-Bacteroides, Firmicutes, and β-Proteobacteria, but a low preference for γ-Proteobacteria. The results show that data on C. elegans under standard laboratory conditions have to be carefully interpreted with respect to their biological significance.

  18. Processing of recognition information and additional cues: A model-based analysis of choice, confidence, and response time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Glockner

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Research on the processing of recognition information has focused on testing the recognition heuristic (RH. On the aggregate, the noncompensatory use of recognition information postulated by the RH was rejected in several studies, while RH could still account for a considerable proportion of choices. These results can be explained if either a a part of the subjects used RH or b nobody used it but its choice predictions were accidentally in line with predictions of the strategy used. In the current study, which exemplifies a new approach to model testing, we determined individuals' decision strategies based on a maximum-likelihood classification method, taking into account choices, response times and confidence ratings simultaneously. Unlike most previous studies of the RH, our study tested the RH under conditions in which we provided information about cue values of unrecognized objects (which we argue is fairly common and thus of some interest. For 77.5% of the subjects, overall behavior was best explained by a compensatory parallel constraint satisfaction (PCS strategy. The proportion of subjects using an enhanced RH heuristic (RHe was negligible (up to 7.5%; 15% of the subjects seemed to use a take the best strategy (TTB. A more-fine grained analysis of the supplemental behavioral parameters conditional on strategy use supports PCS but calls into question process assumptions for apparent users of RH, RHe, and TTB within our experimental context. Our results are consistent with previous literature highlighting the importance of individual strategy classification as compared to aggregated analyses.

  19. A comparative study of drift diffusion and linear ballistic accumulator models in a reward maximization perceptual choice task

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie eGoldfarb

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available We present new findings that distinguish drift diffusion models (DDMsfrom the linear ballistic accumulator (LBA model as descriptions ofhuman behavior in a two-alternative forced-choice reward maximization(Rmax task. Previous comparisons have not considered Rmax tasks, anddifferences identified between the models' predictions have centeredon practice effects. Unlike the parameter-free optimal performancecurves of the pure DDM, the extended DDM and LBA predict families ofcurves depending on their additional parameters, and those of the LBAshow significant differences from the DDMs, especially for poorlydiscriminable stimuli that incur high error rates. Moreover, fits tobehavior reveal that the LBA and DDM provide different interpretationsof behavior as stimulus discriminability increases. Trends forthreshold setting (caution in the DDMs are consistent between fits,while in the corresponding LBA fits, thresholds interact withdistributions of starting points in a complex manner that depends uponparameter constraints. Our results suggest that reinterpretation ofLBA parameters may be necessary in modeling the Rmax paradigm.

  20. Food Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Ehlers Bloksted, Josephine; Knudsen, Anna Althea; Boie Hvid, Amanda; Bang Christensen, Andrea; Ali Ismail, Mohamed Ahmed

    2012-01-01

    This paper illustrates the connection found between food choices, and the influences from society and the digital Media, more specifically television commercials. We have covered different aspects of social and psychological theories, aiming to explain how the individual is affected by social factors. We have drawn conclusions on how the individual is inflicted by society when concerning choice making, as well as covering the psychological aspects that are relevant in connection to this. Last...

  1. An approach to the Choice of a Supply Management Model in Conglomerates Operating at the Markets of Machine-building industry

    OpenAIRE

    Antonov Gennady D.; Ivanova Olga P.

    2016-01-01

    Strategic and managerial analysis shows that currently many conglomerates including those in the machine-building industry do not have established approaches to formation of a purchasing management system for their primary activity; some problems of purchasing model choice methodology lack theoretical development. In the given work the authors specify the list, the characteristics and the combination of estimated macrofactors influencing the choice of the principal supply model for the purpos...

  2. Modeling the anti-cyberbullying preferences of university students: Adaptive choice-based conjoint analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Charles E; Chen, Yvonne; Vaillancourt, Tracy; Rimas, Heather; Deal, Ken; Cunningham, Lesley J; Ratcliffe, Jenna

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive choice-based conjoint analysis was used to study the anti-cyberbullying program preferences of 1,004 university students. More than 60% reported involvement in cyberbullying as witnesses (45.7%), victims (5.7%), perpetrator-victims (4.9%), or perpetrators (4.5%). Men were more likely to report involvement as perpetrators and perpetrator-victims than were women. Students recommended advertisements featuring famous people who emphasized the impact of cyberbullying on victims. They preferred a comprehensive approach teaching skills to prevent cyberbullying, encouraging students to report incidents, enabling anonymous online reporting, and terminating the internet privileges of students involved as perpetrators. Those who cyberbully were least likely, and victims of cyberbullying were most likely, to support an approach combining prevention and consequences. Simulations introducing mandatory reporting, suspensions, or police charges predicted a substantial reduction in the support of uninvolved students, witnesses, victims, and perpetrators.

  3. Development of the Model of Decision Support for Alternative Choice in the Transportation Transit System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kabashkin Igor

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The decision support system is one of the instruments for choosing the most effective decision for cargo owner in constant fluctuated business environment. The objective of this Paper is to suggest the multiple-criteria approach for evaluation and choice the alternatives of cargo transportation in the large scale transportation transit system for the decision makers - cargo owners. The large scale transportation transit system is presented by directed finite graph. Each of 57 alternatives is represented by the set of key performance indicators Kvi and set of parameters Paj. There has been developed a two-level hierarchy system of criteria with ranging expert evaluations based on Analytic Hierarchy Process Method. The best alternatives were suggested according to this method.

  4. Using a Topological Model in Psychology: Developing Sense and Choice Categories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mammen, Jens

    2016-06-01

    A duality of sense categories and choice categories is introduced to map two distinct but co-operating ways in which we as humans are relating actively to the world. We are sensing similarities and differences in our world of objects and persons, but we are also as bodies moving around in this world encountering, selecting, and attaching to objects beyond our sensory interactions and in this way also relating to the individual objects' history. This duality is necessary if we shall understand man as relating to the historical depth of our natural and cultural world, and to understand our cognitions and affections. Our personal affections and attachments, as well as our shared cultural values are centered around objects and persons chosen as reference points and landmarks in our lives, uniting and separating, not to be understood only in terms of sensory selections. The ambition is to bridge the gap between psychology as part of Naturwissenschaft and of Geisteswissenschaft, and at the same time establish a common frame for understanding cognition and affection, and our practical and cultural life (Mammen and Mironenko 2015). The duality of sense and choice categories can be described formally using concepts from modern mathematics, primarily topology, surmounting the reductions rooted in the mechanistic concepts from Renaissance science and mathematics. The formal description is based on 11 short and simple axioms held in ordinary language and visualized with instructive figures. The axioms are bridging psychology and mathematics and not only enriching psychology but also opening for a new interpretation of parts of the foundation of mathematics and logic. PMID:26927850

  5. The implications for the clinician of adopting a recovery model: the role of choice in assertive treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lunt, Alan

    2004-01-01

    Theory is something rarely referred to in psychiatric rehabilitation. But the following, though opinion at this point, is meant to be seen as part of a pursuit of theory in psychiatric rehabilitation and in social science. The ideas behind the writing here draw heavily from the work of Patricia Deegan, yet truly are as old as the Declaration of Independence. They are strongly tied to the values of freedom, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, as choice was expressed as a value in the Bill of Rights, and the Declaration of Independence. The social sciences and the physical sciences are seen as differing, in the same way as the social sciences at root draw from personal experiences while the physical sciences are more objectively determined. Thus, the author believes it not possible to put forward social theory without going beyond the purely objective, and including implicit, non-removable aspects of subjectivity. The author is herein proposing that the implications for the clinician of adopting a recovery model impact the issue of client choice. The Western tradition is now tied to the personal freedom of individual choice and opportunity. This paper explores the benefits of offering people with mental illnesses tangible choices in those areas of life, which impact upon the individual's consequences. The goal is to place the client in maximal control of his/her consequences, to the degree that the individual is capable of comprehending the nature of the choices involved; for the alternative of professionals choosing for their clients will inevitably result in learned helplessness. Although all of case management involves assertive treatment, this paper refers to cases in any modality of treatment in which professionals strongly advocate within the lives of and with the cooperation of clients, with special focus on the clients who encounter the greatest obstacles to successful treatment. The term "client" is employed here as the author is clearly referring to the

  6. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2010-01-01

    This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications....... The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended to competing risk survival models....

  7. Investigating the Effect of Damage Progression Model Choice on Prognostics Performance

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The success of model-based approaches to systems health management depends largely on the quality of the underly- ing models. In model-based prognostics, it is...

  8. Climate change and voltinism in Californian insect pest species: sensitivity to location, scenario and climate model choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziter, Carly; Robinson, Emily A; Newman, Jonathan A

    2012-09-01

    Experimental studies of the impact of climatic change are hampered by their inability to consider multiple climate change scenarios and indeed often consider no more than simple climate sensitivity such as a uniform increase in temperature. Modelling efforts offer the ability to consider a much wider range of realistic climate projections and are therefore useful, in particular, for estimating the sensitivity of impact predictions to differences in geographical location, and choice of climate change scenario and climate model projections. In this study, we used well-established degree-day models to predict the voltinism of 13 agronomically important pests in California, USA. We ran these models using the projections from three Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Global Circulation Models (AOCGCMs or GCMs), in conjunction with the SRES scenarios. We ran these for two locations representing northern and southern California. We did this for both the 2050s and 2090s. We used anova to partition the variation in the resulting voltinism among time period, climate change scenario, GCM and geographical location. For these 13 pest species, the choice of climate model explained an average of 42% of the total variation in voltinism, far more than did geographical location (33%), time period (17%) or scenario (1%). The remaining 7% of the variation was explained by various interactions, of which the location by GCM interaction was the strongest (5%). Regardless of these sources of uncertainty, a robust conclusion from our work is that all 13 pest species are likely to experience increases in the number of generations that they complete each year. Such increased voltinism is likely to have significant consequences for crop protection and production. PMID:24501055

  9. End use technology choice in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS): An analysis of the residential and commercial building sectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is arguably the most influential energy model in the United States. The U.S. Energy Information Administration uses NEMS to generate the federal government's annual long-term forecast of national energy consumption and to evaluate prospective federal energy policies. NEMS is considered such a standard tool that other models are calibrated to its forecasts, in both government and academic practice. As a result, NEMS has a significant influence over expert opinions of plausible energy futures. NEMS is a massively detailed model whose inner workings, despite its prominence, receive relatively scant critical attention. This paper analyzes how NEMS projects energy demand in the residential and commercial sectors. In particular, we focus on the role of consumers' preferences and financial constraints, investigating how consumers choose appliances and other end-use technologies. We identify conceptual issues in the approach the model takes to the same question across both sectors. Running the model with a range of consumer preferences, we estimate the extent to which this issue impacts projected consumption relative to the baseline model forecast for final energy demand in the year 2035. In the residential sector, the impact ranges from a decrease of 0.73 quads (− 6.0%) to an increase of 0.24 quads (+ 2.0%). In the commercial sector, the impact ranges from a decrease of 1.0 quads (− 9.0%) to an increase of 0.99 quads (+ 9.0%). - Highlights: • This paper examines the impact of consumer preferences on final energy in the Commercial and Residential sectors of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). • We describe the conceptual and empirical basis for modeling consumer technology choice in NEMS. • We offer a range of alternative parameters to show the energy demand sensitivity to technology choice. • We show there are significant potential savings available in both building sectors. • Because the model uses its own

  10. The consumer choice model: a humane reconstruction of the U.S. health care system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coulter, C H

    2000-01-01

    "Consumer choice," "defined contribution health programs," "voucher systems," and "health marts" are variations on a theme: employees buying their own health care. This new approach to health care purchasing, which is designed to minimize the role of employers, is being proposed by an array of economists and by both Republican and Democratic legislators as the best way to address the nation's health care ills. Although enabling national legislation is unlikely to pass soon, the debate will nevertheless change the face of health care in America. The prospect is reminiscent of the debate over "Clinton Care" in 1993--although legislation was never passed, managed care rapidly came to dominate the U.S. health care system. As this reform takes hold, beneficiaries will make their own health plan selections but will have more responsibility and may bear more cost. Providers will have to adapt to new, customer-driven requirements for performance, accountability, and communications but will also find opportunities in a marketplace that they will have a major role in shaping. Physicians, health plans, and insurers should understand how these proposals will transform their role in health care. PMID:10847942

  11. Willingness to pay for ecosystem conservation in Alaska's Tongass National Forest: a choice modeling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evan E. Hjerpe

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Forest ecosystems contribute to human welfare in important ways, but because of the nonmarket nature of many of the goods and services produced, both markets and governments fail to optimize their production commensurate with their economic and ecological significance. Despite the recent proliferation of nonmarket environmental valuation in the literature, the incorporation of nonmarket values into public forest decision making has been limited by institutional and methodological barriers. To address this disconnect, we conducted a case study to quantify conservation values for the Tongass National Forest in a manner conducive for public forest planning. A choice experiment featuring proposed forest management alternatives with changes in critical attributes relative to their levels in the status quo was used to generate the requisite data. Econometric analysis suggests that Alaskans have strong preference for conservation management, including both preservation and ecological restoration, over status quo or exploitation management. However, there is significant heterogeneity among Alaskans in terms of bias toward the status quo depending on their socioeconomic characteristics, e.g., gender, age, place of residence, household income, whether or not they have dependent children. The findings of this study can be helpful to forest managers in the preparation of resource management plans consistent with maximization of total economic value of forest ecosystem services.

  12. Food and energy choices for India: a programming model with partial endogenous energy requirements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parikh, K.S.; Srinivasan, T.N.

    1977-12-01

    Choices available to India over the next three decades in the energy and agricultural sectors are examined. India's energy consumption per capita is very low, being of the order of 700 kg of coal replacement while that of the USA is over 11,000 kg. The per capita consumption in Western Europe is in the range of 3000 to 6000 kg. Nearly 50 percent of the energy consumed in India is obtained from noncommercial sources such as firewood, agricultural wastes, and animal dung, whereas in high-income countries this proportion is negligible. The pattern of end use of energy in India is also quite different from that of advanced countries. Nearly 90 percent of the energy required for household cooking is supplied by noncommercial sources in India. Petroleum products account for a little over 70 percent of the energy needs of the transport sector, while in advanced countries this proportion exceeds 90 percent. Another feature of the Indian energy scene is the use in agriclture--mainly for irrigation and partly in terms of chemical fertilizers--of significant amounts of electricity and oil, amounting to nearly 10 percent of the total electricity use and 5 percent of oil. Altogether the transport, agriculture, and domestic sectors of the Indian economy account for more than 55 percent of commercial energy consumption and almost all of noncommercial energy consumption. In this paper, the alternatives available to these sectors only are explored.

  13. The choice between cooled tubular reactor models: analysis of the hot spot

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Westerink, E.J.; Koster, N.; Westerterp, K.R.

    1990-01-01

    The applicability of the one-dimensional pseudo-homogeneous model of the cooled tubular reactor is studied. Using the two-dimensional model as the more accurate one we compared both models by studying the influence of the design and operating variables on the conditions in the hot spot of the reacto

  14. On the choice of electromagnetic model for short high-intensity arcs, applied to welding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We have considered four different approaches for modelling the electromagnetic fields of high-intensity electric arcs: (i) three-dimensional, (ii) two-dimensional axi-symmetric, (iii) the electric potential formulation and (iv) the magnetic field formulation. The underlying assumptions and the differences between these models are described in detail. Models (i) to (iii) reduce to the same limit for an axi-symmetric configuration with negligible radial current density, contrary to model (iv). Models (i) to (iii) were retained and implemented in the open source CFD software OpenFOAM. The simulation results were first validated against the analytic solution of an infinite electric rod. Perfect agreement was obtained for all the models tested. The electromagnetic models (i) to (iii) were then coupled with thermal fluid mechanics, and applied to axi-symmetric gas tungsten arc welding test cases with short arc (2, 3 and 5 mm) and truncated conical electrode tip. Models (i) and (ii) lead to the same simulation results, but not model (iii). Model (iii) is suited in the specific limit of long axi-symmetric arc with negligible electrode tip effect, i.e. negligible radial current density. For short axi-symmetric arc with significant electrode tip effect, the more general axi-symmetric formulation of model (ii) should instead be used. (paper)

  15. The role of convective model choice in calculating the climate impact of doubling CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindzen, R. S.; Hou, A. Y.; Farrell, B. F.

    1982-01-01

    The role of the parameterization of vertical convection in calculating the climate impact of doubling CO2 is assessed using both one-dimensional radiative-convective vertical models and in the latitude-dependent Hadley-baroclinic model of Lindzen and Farrell (1980). Both the conventional 6.5 K/km and the moist-adiabat adjustments are compared with a physically-based, cumulus-type parameterization. The model with parameterized cumulus convection has much less sensitivity than the 6.5 K/km adjustment model at low latitudes, a result that can be to some extent imitiated by the moist-adiabat adjustment model. However, when averaged over the globe, the use of the cumulus-type parameterization in a climate model reduces sensitivity only approximately 34% relative to models using 6.5 K/km convective adjustment. Interestingly, the use of the cumulus-type parameterization appears to eliminate the possibility of a runaway greenhouse.

  16. How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars. Part 1. Model structure, simulation of bounded rationality, and model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueller, Michel G.; Haan, Peter de [ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Natural and Social Science Interface, Universitaetstr. 22, CHN J 73.2, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland)

    2009-03-15

    This article presents an agent-based microsimulation capable of forecasting the effects of policy levers that influence individual choices of new passenger cars. The fundamental decision-making units are households distinguished by sociodemographic characteristics and car ownership. A two-stage model of individual decision processes is employed. In the first stage, individual choice sets are constructed using simple, non-compensatory rules that are based on previously owned cars. Second, decision makers evaluate alternatives in their individual choice set using a multi-attributive weighting rule. The attribute weights are based on a multinomial logit model for cross-country policy analysis in European countries. Additionally, prospect theory and the notion of mental accounting are used to model the perception of monetary values. The microsimulation forecasts actual market observations with high accuracy, both on the level of aggregate market characteristics as well as on a highly resolved level of distributions of market shares. The presented approach is useful for the assessment of policies that influence individual purchase decisions of new passenger cars; it allows accounting for a highly resolved car fleet and differentiated consumer segments. As a result, the complexity of incentive schemes can be represented and detailed structural changes can be investigated. (author)

  17. How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars. Part 1. Model structure, simulation of bounded rationality, and model validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article presents an agent-based microsimulation capable of forecasting the effects of policy levers that influence individual choices of new passenger cars. The fundamental decision-making units are households distinguished by sociodemographic characteristics and car ownership. A two-stage model of individual decision processes is employed. In the first stage, individual choice sets are constructed using simple, non-compensatory rules that are based on previously owned cars. Second, decision makers evaluate alternatives in their individual choice set using a multi-attributive weighting rule. The attribute weights are based on a multinomial logit model for cross-country policy analysis in European countries. Additionally, prospect theory and the notion of mental accounting are used to model the perception of monetary values. The microsimulation forecasts actual market observations with high accuracy, both on the level of aggregate market characteristics as well as on a highly resolved level of distributions of market shares. The presented approach is useful for the assessment of policies that influence individual purchase decisions of new passenger cars; it allows accounting for a highly resolved car fleet and differentiated consumer segments. As a result, the complexity of incentive schemes can be represented and detailed structural changes can be investigated. (author)

  18. The significance of the choice of radiobiological (NTCP) models in treatment plan objective functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: A Clinician's discrimination between radiation therapy treatment plans is traditionally a subjective process, based on experience and existing protocols. A more objective and quantitative approach to distinguish between treatment plans is to use radiobiological or dosimetric objective functions, based on radiobiological or dosimetric models. The efficacy of models is not well understood, nor is the correlation of the rank of plans resulting from the use of models compared to the traditional subjective approach. One such radiobiological model is the Normal Tissue Complication Probability (NTCP). Dosimetric models or indicators are more accepted in clinical practice. In this study, three radiobiological models, Lyman NTCP, critical volume NTCP and relative seriality NTCP, and three dosimetric models, Mean Lung Dose (MLD) and the Lung volumes irradiated at lOGy (V|0) and 20Gy (V20), were used to rank a series of treatment plans using, harm to normal (Lung) tissue as the objective criterion. None of the models considered in this study showed consistent correlation with the Radiation Oncologists plan ranking. If radiobiological or dosimetric models are to be used in objective functions for lung treatments, based on this study it is recommended that the Lyman NTCP model be used because it will provide most consistency with traditional clinician ranking.

  19. Position in formal structure, personal characteristics and choices of advisors in a law firm : A logistic regression model for dyadic network data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lazega, E; vanDuijn, M

    1997-01-01

    This paper presents a statistical model for the analysis of binary sociometric choice data, the p(2) model, which provides a flexible way for using explanatory variables to model network structure. It is applied to examine the influence of the formal structure of an organization on interactions amon

  20. Predicting how People Play Games: a Simple Dynamic Model of Choice.

    OpenAIRE

    Sarin, R.; Vahid, F.

    1999-01-01

    We use the model developed in Sarin and Vahid (1999, GEB) to explain the experiments reported in Erev and Roth (1998, AER). The model supposes that players maximize subject to their "beliefs" which are non-probabilistic and scalar-valued. They are intended to describe the payoffs the players subjectively assess they will obtain from a strategy. In an earlier paper (Sarin and Vahid (1997) we showed that the model predicted behaviour in repeated coordination games remarkably well, and better th...

  1. On the choice of calibration periods and objective functions: A practical guide to model parameter identification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanowicz, Renata; Osuch, Marzena; Grabowiecka, Magdalena

    2013-12-01

    Despite the development of new measuring techniques, monitoring systems and advances in computer technology, rainfall-flow modelling is still a challenge. The reasons are multiple and fairly well known. They include the distributed, heterogeneous nature of the environmental variables affecting flow from the catchment. These are precipitation, evapotranspiration and in some seasons and catchments in Poland, snow melt also. This paper presents a review of work done on the calibration and validation of rainfall-runoff modelling, with a focus on the conceptual HBV model. We give a synthesis of the problems and propose a practical guide to the calibration and validation of rainfall-runoff models.

  2. A Behavioural Model of Traffic Congestion: Endogenizing Speed Choice, Traffic Safety and Time Losses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhoef, E.T.; Rouwendal, J.

    2004-01-01

    Conventional economic models of traffic congestion assume that the relation between traffic flow and speed is a technical one. This paper develops a behavioural model of traffic congestion, in which drivers optimize their speeds by trading off time costs, expected accident costs and fuel costs. Sinc

  3. A disaggregate freight transport model of transport chain and shipment size choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Windisch, E.; De Jong, G.C.; Van Nes, R.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.

    2010-01-01

    The field of freight transport modelling is relatively young compared to passenger transport modelling. However, some key issues in freight policy, like growing freight shares on the road, advanced logistics concepts or emerging strict freight transport regulations, have been creating increasing dem

  4. Presenting Thin Media Models Affects Women's Choice of Diet or Normal Snacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krahe, Barbara; Krause, Christina

    2010-01-01

    Our study explored the influence of thin- versus normal-size media models and of self-reported restrained eating behavior on women's observed snacking behavior. Fifty female undergraduates saw a set of advertisements for beauty products showing either thin or computer-altered normal-size female models, allegedly as part of a study on effective…

  5. Impact of template choice on homology model efficiency in virtual screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rataj, Krzysztof; Witek, Jagna; Mordalski, Stefan; Kosciolek, Tomasz; Bojarski, Andrzej J

    2014-06-23

    Homology modeling is a reliable method of predicting the three-dimensional structures of proteins that lack NMR or X-ray crystallographic data. It employs the assumption that a structural resemblance exists between closely related proteins. Despite the availability of many crystal structures of possible templates, only the closest ones are chosen for homology modeling purposes. To validate the aforementioned approach, we performed homology modeling of four serotonin receptors (5-HT1AR, 5-HT2AR, 5-HT6R, 5-HT7R) for virtual screening purposes, using 10 available G-Protein Coupled Receptors (GPCR) templates with diverse evolutionary distances to the targets, with various approaches to alignment construction and model building. The resulting models were further validated in two steps by means of ligand docking and enrichment calculation, using Glide software. The final quality of the models was determined in virtual screening-like experiments by the AUROC score of the resulting ROC curves. The outcome of this research showed that no correlation between sequence identity and model quality was found, leading to the conclusion that the closest phylogenetic relative is not always the best template for homology modeling.

  6. Intertemporal choice in lemurs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Jeffrey R; Mühlhoff, Nelly

    2012-02-01

    Different species vary in their ability to wait for delayed rewards in intertemporal choice tasks. Models of rate maximization account for part of this variation, but other factors such as social structure and feeding ecology seem to underly some species differences. Though studies have evaluated intertemporal choice in several primate species, including Old World monkeys, New World monkeys, and apes, prosimians have not been tested. This study investigated intertemporal choices in three species of lemur (black-and-white ruffed lemurs, Varecia variegata, red ruffed lemurs, Varecia rubra, and black lemurs, Eulemur macaco) to assess how they compare to other primate species and whether their choices are consistent with rate maximization. We offered lemurs a choice between two food items available immediately and six food items available after a delay. We found that by adjusting the delay to the larger reward, the lemurs were indifferent between the two options at a mean delay of 17 s, ranging from 9 to 25 s. These data are comparable to data collected from common marmosets (Callithrix jacchus). The lemur data were not consistent with models of rate maximization. The addition of lemurs to the list of species tested in these tasks will help uncover the role of life history and socio-ecological factors influencing intertemporal choices. PMID:22024661

  7. I'll Have What She's Having: The Impact of Model Characteristics on Children's Food Choices

    OpenAIRE

    Frazier, Brandy N.; Gelman, Susan A.; Kaciroti, Niko; Russell, Joshua W.; Lumeng, Julie C.

    2011-01-01

    The current research investigates children's use of social categories in their food selection. Across three studies, we presented preschoolers with sets of photographs that contrasted food-eating models with different characteristics, including model gender, race (Black, White), age (child or adult), and/or expression (acceptance or rejection of the food). Children were asked to pick between the photographs to choose which food they would like for snack. Results demonstrated that preschoolers...

  8. Independence and interdependence in collective decision making: an agent-based model of nest-site choice by honeybee swarms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    List, Christian; Elsholtz, Christian; Seeley, Thomas D

    2009-03-27

    Condorcet's jury theorem shows that when the members of a group have noisy but independent information about what is best for the group as a whole, majority decisions tend to outperform dictatorial ones. When voting is supplemented by communication, however, the resulting interdependencies between decision makers can strengthen or undermine this effect: they can facilitate information pooling, but also amplify errors. We consider an intriguing non-human case of independent information pooling combined with communication: the case of nest-site choice by honeybee (Apis mellifera) swarms. It is empirically well documented that when there are different nest sites that vary in quality, the bees usually choose the best one. We develop a new agent-based model of the bees' decision process and show that its remarkable reliability stems from a particular interplay of independence and interdependence between the bees.

  9. The Mouse Solitary Odorant Receptor Gene Promoters as Models for the Study of Odorant Receptor Gene Choice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Degl'Innocenti

    Full Text Available In vertebrates, several anatomical regions located within the nasal cavity mediate olfaction. Among these, the main olfactory epithelium detects most conventional odorants. Olfactory sensory neurons, provided with cilia exposed to the air, detect volatile chemicals via an extremely large family of seven-transmembrane chemoreceptors named odorant receptors. Their genes are expressed in a monogenic and monoallelic fashion: a single allele of a single odorant receptor gene is transcribed in a given mature neuron, through a still uncharacterized molecular mechanism known as odorant receptor gene choice.Odorant receptor genes are typically arranged in genomic clusters, but a few are isolated (we call them solitary from the others within a region broader than 1 Mb upstream and downstream with respect to their transcript's coordinates. The study of clustered genes is problematic, because of redundancy and ambiguities in their regulatory elements: we propose to use the solitary genes as simplified models to understand odorant receptor gene choice.Here we define number and identity of the solitary genes in the mouse genome (C57BL/6J, and assess the conservation of the solitary status in some mammalian orthologs. Furthermore, we locate their putative promoters, predict their homeodomain binding sites (commonly present in the promoters of odorant receptor genes and compare candidate promoter sequences with those of wild-caught mice. We also provide expression data from histological sections.In the mouse genome there are eight intact solitary genes: Olfr19 (M12, Olfr49, Olfr266, Olfr267, Olfr370, Olfr371, Olfr466, Olfr1402; five are conserved as solitary in rat. These genes are all expressed in the main olfactory epithelium of three-day-old mice. The C57BL/6J candidate promoter of Olfr370 has considerably varied compared to its wild-type counterpart. Within the putative promoter for Olfr266 a homeodomain binding site is predicted. As a whole, our findings

  10. 考虑偏好差异与备选方案相关性的居民出行方式选择模型%Travel Mode Choice Model Accounting for Individual Preference Heterogeneity and Correlation among Choice Alternatives

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨励雅; 赵鹏军

    2012-01-01

    为克服传统logit模型的ⅡA缺陷,构建合适的居民出行方式选择模型.尝试结合广义极值模型与潜在类别模型,选取出行费用、出行时间、停车费用及等待时间等作为方式选择效用变量,选取个人收入、出行目的与出行距离作为类属函数变量,构建一种区分潜在类别的配对巢式logit模型,该模型能同时刻画备选方式之间的相关性以及出行者的偏好差异.利用2005年北京市第三次居民出行调查数据,对模型参数进行估计和检验.参数估计结果表明:1)相较于传统MNL模型与不区分潜在类别的配对巢式logit模型,区分潜在类别的配对巢式logit模型具有更优的统计学特征;2)对出行费用敏感的出行者比例大于对出行时间敏感的出行者比例,提供交通服务时,降低费用将比缩短时间更为有效.%The authors proposed a new travel mode choice model to overcome the limitation of traditional logit model. Combining generalized extreme value model and latent class model, the authors present a modeling methodology capable of accounting for individual preference heterogeneity and correlation across choice alternatives. Travel cost, travel time, parking fee, and waiting time are defined as utility variables for mode choice, while individual income, travel purpose, and travel distance are selected as variables of segment membership function. This model can depict the correlation among choice alternatives and individual preference heterogeneity simultaneously. Using Beijing traffic survey data of 2005, the model parameters are estimated. Estimation results show that the latent class paired nested logit model outperforms the traditional models. Most travelers are cost-sensitive to travel modes, and thus strategies that reduce the travel cost can be more effective than reducing the travel time.

  11. Hard Choice

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    The international community is still faced with the difficult choice of how to finally solve the North Korean nuclear crisis after the new UN resolution After intensive consultations, members of the UN Security Council finally worked out a multilateral response to North Korea's recent nuclear test with the adoption of Resolution 1718 on October 14. Despite the strict economic sanctions it imposes on North Korea under ChapterⅦof the Charter of the

  12. Choice & Consequence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Azam

    to support hypothesis generation, hypothesis testing, and decision making. In addition to sensors in buildings, infrastructure, or the environment, we also propose the instrumentation of user interfaces to help measure performance in decision making applications. We show the benefits of applying principles...... of data analysis and instructional interface design, to both simulation systems and decision support interfaces. We hope that projects such as these will help people to understand the link between their choices and the consequences of their decisions....

  13. Optimal technology choice and investment timing: A stochastic model of industrial cogeneration vs. heat-only production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper we develop an economic model that explains the decision-making problem under uncertainty of an industrial firm that wants to invest in a process technology. More specifically, the decision is between making an irreversible investment in a combined heat-and-power production (cogeneration) system, or to invest in a conventional heat-only generation system (steam boiler) and to purchase all electricity from the grid. In our model we include the main economic and technical variables of the investment decision process. We also account for the risk and uncertainty inherent in volatile energy prices that can greatly affect the valuation of the investment project. The dynamic stochastic model presented allows us to simultaneously determine the optimal technology choice and investment timing. We apply the theoretical model and illustrate our main findings with a numerical example that is based on realistic cost values for industrial oil- or gas-fired cogeneration and heat-only generation in Switzerland. We also briefly discuss expected effects of a CO2 tax on the investment decision

  14. Choice of blood rheology model has minor impact on computational assessment of shear stress mediated vascular risk

    CERN Document Server

    Bernabeu, Miguel O; Groen, Derek; Carver, Hywel B; Hetherington, James; Krüger, Timm; Coveney, Peter V

    2012-01-01

    Perturbations to the homeostatic distribution of mechanical forces exerted by blood on the endothelial layer have been correlated with vascular pathologies including intracranial aneurysms and atherosclerosis. Recent computational work suggests that in order to correctly characterise such forces, the shear-thinning properties of blood must be taken into account. To the best of our knowledge, these findings have never been compared against experimentally observed pathological thresholds. In the current work, we apply the three-band diagram (TBD) analysis due to Gizzi et al. to assess the impact of the choice of blood rheology model on a computational model of the right middle cerebral artery. Our results show that the differences between the wall shear stress predicted by a Newtonian model and the well known Carreau-Yasuda generalized Newtonian model are only significant if the vascular pathology under study is associated with a pathological threshold in the range 0.94 Pa to 1.56 Pa, where the results of the T...

  15. The Role of Preference Axioms and Respondent Behaviour in Statistical Models for Discrete Choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hougaard, Jens Leth; Tjur, Tue; Østerdal, Lars Peter

    , ordering effects, dominance, etc. Unfortunatelythere seems to be some confusion about what is actually being tested,and the link between the statistical tests performed and the relevantunderlying model of respondent behaviour has not been explored inthis literature. The present paper tries to clarify...

  16. The Irrational Nature of Choice: A New Model for Advising Undecided Students?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertram, Robert M.

    1996-01-01

    Examines the dynamics of student decision making in the era of information technology. Presents and challenges long-established paradigms associated with decision making. Examines the roles of individual and societal epistemologies, and suggests a new model with a less rational approach that recognizes varied viewpoints and helps students think…

  17. Modeling Choices in Nuclear Warfighting: Two Classroom Simulations on Escalation and Retaliation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schofield, Julian

    2013-01-01

    Two classroom simulations--"Superpower Confrontation" and "Multipolar Asian Simulation"--are used to teach and test various aspects of the Borden versus Brodie debate on the Schelling versus Lanchester approach to nuclear conflict modeling and resolution. The author applies a Schelling test to segregate high from low empathic students, and assigns…

  18. Reciprocal Markov Modeling of Feedback Mechanisms Between Emotion and Dietary Choice Using Experience-Sampling Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Ji; Pan, Junhao; Zhang, Qiang; Dubé, Laurette; Ip, Edward H

    2015-01-01

    With intensively collected longitudinal data, recent advances in the experience-sampling method (ESM) benefit social science empirical research, but also pose important methodological challenges. As traditional statistical models are not generally well equipped to analyze a system of variables that contain feedback loops, this paper proposes the utility of an extended hidden Markov model to model reciprocal the relationship between momentary emotion and eating behavior. This paper revisited an ESM data set (Lu, Huet, & Dube, 2011) that observed 160 participants' food consumption and momentary emotions 6 times per day in 10 days. Focusing on the analyses on feedback loop between mood and meal-healthiness decision, the proposed reciprocal Markov model (RMM) can accommodate both hidden ("general" emotional states: positive vs. negative state) and observed states (meal: healthier, same or less healthy than usual) without presuming independence between observations and smooth trajectories of mood or behavior changes. The results of RMM analyses illustrated the reciprocal chains of meal consumption and mood as well as the effect of contextual factors that moderate the interrelationship between eating and emotion. A simulation experiment that generated data consistent with the empirical study further demonstrated that the procedure is promising in terms of recovering the parameters.

  19. Model and measurement methodology for the analysis of consumer choice of foods products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Wierenga (Berend)

    1983-01-01

    textabstractThe consumer can be conceived as an imperfect problem solver. Consumer behavior with respect to food products is purposive, but the consumer is bounded by limitations of information, cognitive skills, memory and time. From this starting point, this paper develops a model of the process b

  20. Reciprocal Markov Modeling of Feedback Mechanisms Between Emotion and Dietary Choice Using Experience-Sampling Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Ji; Pan, Junhao; Zhang, Qiang; Dubé, Laurette; Ip, Edward H

    2015-01-01

    With intensively collected longitudinal data, recent advances in the experience-sampling method (ESM) benefit social science empirical research, but also pose important methodological challenges. As traditional statistical models are not generally well equipped to analyze a system of variables that contain feedback loops, this paper proposes the utility of an extended hidden Markov model to model reciprocal the relationship between momentary emotion and eating behavior. This paper revisited an ESM data set (Lu, Huet, & Dube, 2011) that observed 160 participants' food consumption and momentary emotions 6 times per day in 10 days. Focusing on the analyses on feedback loop between mood and meal-healthiness decision, the proposed reciprocal Markov model (RMM) can accommodate both hidden ("general" emotional states: positive vs. negative state) and observed states (meal: healthier, same or less healthy than usual) without presuming independence between observations and smooth trajectories of mood or behavior changes. The results of RMM analyses illustrated the reciprocal chains of meal consumption and mood as well as the effect of contextual factors that moderate the interrelationship between eating and emotion. A simulation experiment that generated data consistent with the empirical study further demonstrated that the procedure is promising in terms of recovering the parameters. PMID:26717120

  1. A conceptual model of channel choice : measuring online and offline shopping value perceptions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broekhuizen, Thijs L.J.; Jager, Wander

    2004-01-01

    This study tries to understand how consumers evaluate channels for their purchasing. Specifically, it develops a conceptual model that addresses consumer value perceptions of using the Internet versus the traditional (physical) channel. Previous research showed that perceptions of price, product qua

  2. Modelling Public Transport Route Choice, with Multiple Access and Egress Modes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brands, T.; De Romph, E.; Veitch, T.; Cook, J.

    2014-01-01

    Public transport (PT) is important, because the current traffic system faces well known problems like congestion, environmental impact and use of public space. To be able to assess the effects of policy measures properly, it is necessary to model the behavior of the (PT) traveler in a realistic way.

  3. Modelling public transport route choice, with multiple access and egress modes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brands, T.; Romph, de E.; Veitch, T.; Cook, J.

    2014-01-01

    Public transport (PT) is important, because the current traffic system faces well known problems like congestion, environmental impact and use of public space. To be able to assess the effects of policy measures properly, it is necessary to model the behavior of the (PT) traveler in a realistic way.

  4. Modelling mode choice in short trips - shifting from car to bicycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halldórsdóttir, Katrín; Christensen, Linda; Jensen, Thomas Christian;

    2011-01-01

    -economic variables of a representative sample of the population. The investigated sample includes 11,072 observations. The model considers five alternatives (i.e., car driver, car passenger, public transport, walk and obviously bike), for which level of service variables are calculated through assignment procedures...

  5. AN APPLICATION OF CHOICE MODELING TO MEASURE U.S. CONSUMER PREFERENCES FOR GENETICALLY MODIFIED FOODS

    OpenAIRE

    Onyango, Benjamin M.; Govindasamy, Ramu; Nayga, Rodolfo M.

    2004-01-01

    Food biotechnology promises to deliver a wide range of enhanced consumer benefits. This study models consumer's willingness to trade-off the potential risks of GM foods with the possibility of extracting significant benefits. It estimates the marginal effects and relationships between product characteristics and consumer attributes on acceptance of GM foods.

  6. MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF DECISIONMAKING SYSTEM INTEGRATION IN THE MULTIPLE CHOICE ALTERNATIVES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Halizev V. N.

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the models and the methods of the market of the proposed sub-systems and equipment, based on the analysis of the requirements for security to choose the best solution for the synthesis of the integrated security system

  7. Modeling choice and reaction time during arbitrary visuomotor learning through the coordination of adaptive working memory and reinforcement learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viejo, Guillaume; Khamassi, Mehdi; Brovelli, Andrea; Girard, Benoît

    2015-01-01

    Current learning theory provides a comprehensive description of how humans and other animals learn, and places behavioral flexibility and automaticity at heart of adaptive behaviors. However, the computations supporting the interactions between goal-directed and habitual decision-making systems are still poorly understood. Previous functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) results suggest that the brain hosts complementary computations that may differentially support goal-directed and habitual processes in the form of a dynamical interplay rather than a serial recruitment of strategies. To better elucidate the computations underlying flexible behavior, we develop a dual-system computational model that can predict both performance (i.e., participants' choices) and modulations in reaction times during learning of a stimulus-response association task. The habitual system is modeled with a simple Q-Learning algorithm (QL). For the goal-directed system, we propose a new Bayesian Working Memory (BWM) model that searches for information in the history of previous trials in order to minimize Shannon entropy. We propose a model for QL and BWM coordination such that the expensive memory manipulation is under control of, among others, the level of convergence of the habitual learning. We test the ability of QL or BWM alone to explain human behavior, and compare them with the performance of model combinations, to highlight the need for such combinations to explain behavior. Two of the tested combination models are derived from the literature, and the latter being our new proposal. In conclusion, all subjects were better explained by model combinations, and the majority of them are explained by our new coordination proposal. PMID:26379518

  8. Modeling the Joint Choice Decisions on Urban Shopping Destination and Travel-to-Shop Mode: A Comparative Study of Different Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuan Ding

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The joint choice of shopping destination and travel-to-shop mode in downtown area is described by making use of the cross-nested logit (CNL model structure that allows for potential interalternative correlation along the both choice dimensions. Meanwhile, the traditional multinomial logit (MNL model and nested logit (NL model are also formulated, respectively. This study uses the data collected in the downtown areas of Maryland-Washington, D.C. region, for shopping trips, considering household, individual, land use, and travel related characteristics. The results of the model reveal the significant influencing factors on joint choice travel behavior between shopping destination and travel mode. A comparison of the different models shows that the proposed CNL model structure offers significant improvements in capturing unobserved correlations between alternatives over MNL model and NL model. Moreover, a Monte Carlo simulation for a group of scenarios assuming that there is an increase in parking fees in downtown area is undertaken to examine the impact of a change in car travel cost on the joint choice of shopping destination and travel mode switching. The results are expected to give a better understanding on the shopping travel behavior.

  9. Interplay between Point-Group Symmetries and the Choice of the Bloch Basis in Multiband Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiang-Hua Wang

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the point-group symmetries of generic multiband tight-binding models with respect to the transformation properties of the effective interactions. While the vertex functions in the orbital language may transform non-trivially under point-group operations, their point-group behavior in the band language can be simplified by choosing a suitable Bloch basis. We first give two analytically accessible examples. Then, we show that, for a large class of models, a natural Bloch basis exists, in which the vertex functions in the band language transform trivially under all point-group operations. As a consequence, the point-group symmetries can be used to reduce the computational effort in perturbative many-particle approaches, such as the functional renormalization group.

  10. Encouraging Sustainable Transport Choices in American Households: Results from an Empirically Grounded Agent-Based Model

    OpenAIRE

    Davide Natalini; Giangiacomo Bravo

    2013-01-01

    The transport sector needs to go through an extended process of decarbonisation to counter the threat of climate change. Unfortunately, the International Energy Agency forecasts an enormous growth in the number of cars and greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Two issues can thus be identified: (1) the need for a new methodology that could evaluate the policy performances ex-ante and (2) the need for more effective policies. To help address these issues, we developed an Agent-Based Model called ...

  11. A conceptual model of channel choice: measuring online and offline shopping value perceptions

    OpenAIRE

    Broekhuizen, Thijs L.J.; Jager, Wander

    2004-01-01

    This study tries to understand how consumers evaluate channels for their purchasing. Specifically, it develops a conceptual model that addresses consumer value perceptions of using the Internet versus the traditional (physical) channel. Previous research showed that perceptions of price, product quality, service quality and risk strongly influence perceived value and purchase intentions in the offline and online channel. Perceptions of online and offline buyers can be analyzed to see how valu...

  12. A Model of Adolescents’ Seeking of Sexual Content in their Media Choices

    OpenAIRE

    Bleakley, Amy; Hennessy, Michael; Fishbein, Martin

    2011-01-01

    This paper reports on the extent to which adolescents report actively seeking sexual content in media, identifies from which media they report seeking, estimates the association between seeking sexual information and romantic and sexual behavior, and shows that active seeking of sexual content in media sources is explained by an intention to seek such content using the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction, a reasoned action approach. The data are a national sample of 810 adolescents age...

  13. The Drift Diffusion Model can account for the accuracy and reaction time of value-based choices under high and low time pressure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milica Milosavljevic

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available An important open problem is how values are compared to make simple choices. A natural hypothesis is that the brain carries out the computations associated with the value comparisons in a manner consistent with the Drift Diffusion Model (DDM, since this model has been able to account for a large amount of data in other domains. We investigated the ability of four different versions of the DDM to explain the data in a real binary food choice task under conditions of high and low time pressure. We found that a seven-parameter version of the DDM can account for the choice and reaction time data with high-accuracy, in both the high and low time pressure conditions. The changes associated with the introduction of time pressure could be traced to changes in two key model parameters: the barrier height and the noise in the slope of the drift process.

  14. Choosing a Virtual World Platform for Teaching: “VICERO” - A Scoring Model Aiding the Right Choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Erenli

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available When asking which Virtual World to use for educational purposes, people most often want to hear a one- sentence answer. Frequently the question leads to a discussion that can be compared to a debate about religion: you cannot be too sure which side you will choose but you are easily doomed from the beginning if you pick the wrong side (or in this case, platform. To help educators pick the right Virtual World platform we have developed a Scoring Model and Criteria Catalogue which support choosing the most suitable platform for teaching purposes. Educators can use the Scoring Model to rate the criteria based on their respective demand. The Scoring Model will then suggest a Virtual World platform from a “long list” and instruct the educator how to install/use/maintain the platform. Thus educators will not be left alone with their choice and will get a motivational hint where to start and where to seek support. The “long list” is monitored and updated regularly so that selections are always up-to-date.

  15. A Segment-Level Model of Category Volume and Brand Choice

    OpenAIRE

    William R Dillon; Sunil Gupta

    1996-01-01

    It is an everyday marketplace occurrence that brands lose and gain share. However, a brand's sales gain or loss can be attributable to very different factors, and thus understanding the sources of sales gain or loss would seem to be an important aspect of a brand manager's job. The primary purpose of this research is to develop a model that can answer the following questions: (i) What are the sources of gain or loss of a brand's sales due to category volume and brand switching? (ii) What cons...

  16. Modelling choice and reaction time during arbitrary visuomotor learning through the coordination of adaptive working memory andreinforcement learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume eViejo

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Current learning theory provides a comprehensive description of how we and other animalslearn, and places behavioral flexibility and automaticity at heart of adaptive behaviors. However, the computations supporting the interactions between goal-directed and habitual decision-making systems are still poorly understood. Previous functional magnetic resonance imaging(fMRI results suggest that the brain hosts complementary computations that may differentiallysupport goal-directed and habitual processes in the form of a dynamical interplay rather than aserial recruitment of strategies. To better elucidate the computations underlying flexible behavior, we develop a dual-system computational model which can predict both performance (i.e.,participants’ choices and modulations in reaction times during learning of a stimulus-response association task. The habitual system is modelled with a simple Q-learning algorithm (QL.For the goal-directed system, we propose a new Bayesian Working Memory (BWM modelwhich searches for information in the history of previous trials in order to minimize Shannonentropy. We propose a model for QL and BWM coordination such that the expensive memorymanipulation is under control of, among others, the level of convergence of the habitual learning.We test the ability of QL or BWM alone to explain human behavior, and compare them with theperformance of model combinations, to highlight the need for such combinations to explainbehavior. Two of the tested combination models are derived from the literature, the latter beingour new proposal. In conclusion, all subjects were better explained by model combinations, andthe majority of them by our new coordination proposal.

  17. Encouraging Sustainable Transport Choices in American Households: Results from an Empirically Grounded Agent-Based Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Davide Natalini

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The transport sector needs to go through an extended process of decarbonisation to counter the threat of climate change. Unfortunately, the International Energy Agency forecasts an enormous growth in the number of cars and greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Two issues can thus be identified: (1 the need for a new methodology that could evaluate the policy performances ex-ante and (2 the need for more effective policies. To help address these issues, we developed an Agent-Based Model called Mobility USA aimed at: (1 testing whether this could be an effective approach in analysing ex-ante policy implementation in the transport sector; and (2 evaluating the effects of alternative policy scenarios on commuting behaviours in the USA. Particularly, we tested the effects of two sets of policies, namely market-based and preference-change ones. The model results suggest that this type of agent-based approach will provide a useful tool for testing policy interventions and their effectiveness.

  18. Step out the Paradox of Livable City Studies:Conceptual Model and Path Choice

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Based on a comparative analysis on the concepts and standards of livable city in China and abroad,the paper creates a conceptual model and a fundamental formula for livable city development with economic development as the foundation,and the social and cultural conditions,the ecological status,and the city governance as three pillars,so as to provide a theoretical explanation for the two paradoxes of livable city.The paper suggests that China should choose Path C,which combines economic development with city livability.It also analyzes the development rules of livable city under Path C,and talks about the fundamental ideas of livable city construction under the current circumstances in China.In the end,the paper puts forward related planning strategies in terms of spatial structure,ecological environment,cultural construction,transportation system,and housing system,in order to establish a livable city development model that is suitable for China’s practical conditions.

  19. Human Aspects of Route Choice Behavior: Incorporating Perceptions, Learning Trends, Latent Classes, and Personality Traits in the Modeling of Driver Heterogeneity in Route Choice Behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Tawfik, Aly M.; Rakha, Hesham A.

    2012-01-01

    Driver heterogeneity in travel behavior has repeatedly been cited in the literature as a limitation that needs to be addressed. In this work, driver heterogeneity is addressed from four different perspectives. First, driver heterogeneity is addressed by models of driver perceptions of travel conditions: travel distance, time, and speed. Second, it is addressed from the perspective of driver learning trends and models of driver-types. Driver type is not commonly used in the vernacular of trans...

  20. Re-evaluation of an animal model for ADHD using a free-operant choice task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pardey, Margery C; Homewood, Judi; Taylor, Alan; Cornish, Jennifer L

    2009-01-30

    Previous research using free-operant procedures have reported that the Spontaneously Hypertensive Rat (SHR) is more impulsive and inattentive than the Wistar-Kyoto (WKY) rat. Recently these behavioural differences have been suggested to be a consequence of differences in the overall activity of these strains. This study compared SHRs to WKYs on locomotor activity and delay sensitivity using a delayed reinforcement (DR) and extinction (EXT) task. SHRs maintained higher locomotor activity than WKYs, however no significant group differences were found on the total lever presses in the DR or EXT tasks. During the DR task, SHRs shifted to selecting the immediate small reinforcer significantly faster than WKYs as the delay increased. WKYs predominantly selected the lever previously associated with the delayed large reinforcer throughout the EXT task, while the SHRs showed no such preference. The significant group differences found on lever selection during the DR and EXT tasks suggests that SHRs are more sensitive to delays, therefore providing further support for the face validity of the SHR as an animal model of ADHD. PMID:18835408

  1. The effect of material choice on biofilm formation in a model warm water distribution system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waines, Paul L; Moate, Roy; Moody, A John; Allen, Mike; Bradley, Graham

    2011-11-01

    Water distribution systems (WDS) are composed of a variety of materials and may harbour potential pathogens within surface-attached microbial biofilms. Biofilm formation on four plumbing materials, viz. copper, stainless steel 316 (SS316), ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) and cross-linked polyethylene (PEX), was investigated using scanning electron microscope (SEM)/confocal microscopy, ATP-/culture-based analysis, and molecular analysis. Material 'inserts' were incorporated into a mains water fed, model WDS. All materials supported biofilm growth to various degrees. After 84 days, copper and SS316 showed no significant overall differences in terms of the level of biofilm formation observed, whilst PEX supported a significantly higher level of biofilm. EPDM exhibited gross contamination by a complex, multispecies biofilm, at a level significantly higher than was observed on the other materials, regardless of the analytical method used. PCR-DGGE analysis showed clear differences in the composition of the biofilm community on all materials after 84 days. The primary conclusion of this study has been to identify EPDM as a potentially unsuitable material for use as a major component in WDS. PMID:22117115

  2. On the "Optimal" Choice of Trial Functions for Modelling Potential Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Volker

    2015-04-01

    There are many trial functions (e.g. on the sphere) available which can be used for the modelling of a potential field. Among them are orthogonal polynomials such as spherical harmonics and radial basis functions such as spline or wavelet basis functions. Their pros and cons have been widely discussed in the last decades. We present an algorithm, the Regularized Functional Matching Pursuit (RFMP), which is able to choose trial functions of different kinds in order to combine them to a stable approximation of a potential field. One main advantage of the RFMP is that the constructed approximation inherits the advantages of the different basis systems. By including spherical harmonics, coarse global structures can be represented in a sparse way. However, the additional use of spline basis functions allows a stable handling of scattered data grids. Furthermore, the inclusion of wavelets and scaling functions yields a multiscale analysis of the potential. In addition, ill-posed inverse problems (like a downward continuation or the inverse gravimetric problem) can be regularized with the algorithm. We show some numerical examples to demonstrate the possibilities which the RFMP provides.

  3. Policy Choice for Urban Low-carbon transportation in Beijing: Scenario Analysis Based on LEAP model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yu

    2016-04-01

    Beijing is a fast developing megacity with serious traffic problems, such as high energy consumption, high CO2 emission and traffic congestion. The coming 13th Five-Year Plan for Beijing economic and social development will focus on the low-carbon transportation policy to achieve the urban traffic sustainable development. In order to improve the feasibility of urban low-carbon transportation policies, this paper analyzes the future trends of CO2 emissions from transportation of Beijing. Firstly, five policies scenarios are developed according to the coming Beijing 13th Five-Year Plan, including the "Business As Usual (BAU)", the "Public Transportation Priority(PTP)", the "New Energy Vehicle(NEV)", the "Active Transportation(AT)", the "Private Car Regulation(PCR)" and the "Hybrid Policy(HP)". Then the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP model) framework is adopted to estimate CO2 emission under given policies scenarios up to year 2020 and analyze the implications. The results demonstrate that the low-carbon transportation policies can reduce CO2 emission effectively. Specifically, the "Hybrid Policy(HP)" has the best performance. In terms of single policy effect, the "Private Car Regulation(PCR)" comes first followed by the "Public Transportation Priority(PTP)".

  4. Sensory axon guidance with semaphorin 6A and nerve growth factor in a biomimetic choice point model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The direct effect of guidance cues on developing and regenerating axons in vivo is not fully understood, as the process involves a multiplicity of attractive and repulsive signals, presented both as soluble and membrane-bound ligands. A better understanding of axon guidance is critical to functional recovery following injury to the nervous system through improved outgrowth and mapping of damaged nerves. Due to their implications as inhibitors to central nervous system regeneration, we investigated the repulsive properties of semaphorin 6A and ephrin-B3 on E15 rat dorsal root ganglion explants, as well as possible interactions with soluble gradients of chemoattractive nerve growth factor (NGF). We employed a 3D biomimetic in vitro choice point model, which enabled the simple and rapid preparation of patterned gel growth matrices with quantifiable presentation of guidance cues in a specifiable manner that resembles the in vivo presentation of soluble and/or immobilized ligands. Neurites demonstrated an inhibitory response to immobilized Sema6A by lumbosacral dorsal root ganglion explants, while no such repulsion was observed for immobilized ephrin-B3 by explants at any spinal level. Interestingly, Sema6A inhibition could be partially attenuated in a concentration-dependent manner through the simultaneous presentation of soluble NGF gradients. The in vitro model described herein represents a versatile and valuable investigative tool in the quest for understanding developmental processes and improving regeneration following nervous system injury. (paper)

  5. Human papillomavirus vaccination: what is the best choice? A comparison of 16 strategies by means of a decisional model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasparini, R; Amicizia, D; Manfredi, P; Ansaldi, F; Lucioni, C; Gallelli, G; Panatto, D

    2009-06-01

    Some European countries decided to include human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines in national immunization schedules. In order to help decision makers choose the best vaccination policy for females, a decisional model has been developed. The study was performed from the National Health Service perspective. Several hypotheses of multi-cohort vaccination policies were compared. 'Potentially avoidable infections' were chosen as the outcome. The model envisioned a short-term scenario (2008-2011). The best policy was that of vaccinating 12-year-olds and, a year later, those aged 14-16 years; the most expensive strategy was that of vaccinating 12-year-old females and, after 1 year, vaccinating those aged 15, 18 and 25 years. The sensitivity analysis showed that coverage rate has a great effect on the cost of avoidable infections. The study offers stake-holders an important datum-point for the choice of the best HPV policy vaccination in the short term. Indeed, it could generate interesting savings for the National Health Service and a rapid HPV immunization of young girls.

  6. Choice of mouse strain influences the outcome in a mouse model of chemical-induced asthma.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanessa De Vooght

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The development of occupational asthma is the result of interactions between environmental factors and individual susceptibility. We assessed how our model of chemical-induced asthma is influenced by using different mouse strains. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: On days 1 and 8, male mice of 7 different strains (BALB/c, BP/2, A/J, C57Bl/6, DBA/2, CBA and AKR were dermally treated with toluene-2,4-diisocyanate (TDI (0.3% or vehicle (acetone/olive oil, AOO, 2:3 on each ear (20 microl. On day 15, they received an oropharyngeal instillation of TDI (0.01% or AOO (1:4. Airway reactivity to methacholine, total and differential cell counts in bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL and total serum IgE and IgG(2a levels were measured. Lymphocyte subpopulations in auricular lymph nodes and in vitro release of cytokines by ConA stimulated lymphocytes were assessed. In TDI-sensitized and challenged mice, airway hyper-reactivity was only observed in BALB/c, BP/2, A/J and AKR mice; airway inflammation was most pronounced in BALB/c mice; numbers of T-helper (CD4(+, T-activated (CD4(+CD25(+, T-cytotoxic (CD8(+ and B- lymphocytes (CD19(+ were increased in the auricular lymph nodes of BALB/c, BP/2, A/J and CBA mice; elevated concentrations of IL-4, IL-10, IL-13 and IFN-gamma were detected in supernatant of lymphocytes from BALB/c, BP/2, A/J, C57Bl/6 and CBA mice cultured with concanavaline A, along with an increase in total serum IgE. CONCLUSION: The used mouse strain has considerable and variable impacts on different aspects of the asthma phenotype. The human phenotypical characteristics of chemically-induced occupational asthma were best reproduced in Th2-biased mice and in particular in BALB/c mice.

  7. Choices and changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-01-01

    in their last year in upper-secondary school concerning their choice of tertiary education were examined using quantitative EV-MBC surveys and repeated qualitative interviews. This article presents the analyses of three cases in detail. The analytical focus was whether the factors indicated in the EV-MBC model...

  8. Effects of task complexity and time pressure on activity-travel choices: heteroscedastic logit model and activity-travel simulator experiment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, C.; Chorus, C.G.; Molin, E.J.E.; Van Wee, G.P.

    2015-01-01

    This paper derives, estimates and applies a discrete choice model of activity-travel behaviour that accommodates potential effects of task complexity and time pressure on decision-making. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that both factors (task complexity and time pressure) are j

  9. Understanding surgery choices for breast cancer: how might the Theory of Planned Behaviour and the Common Sense Model contribute to decision support interventions?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sivell, S.; Edwards, A.; Elwyn, G.; Manstead, A.S.

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To describe the evidence about factors influencing breast cancer patients' surgery choices and the implications for designing decision support in reference to an extended Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) and the Common Sense Model of Illness Representations (CSM). BACKGROUND: A wide rang

  10. EFL students' English language knowledge, strategy use and multiple-choice reading test performance: a structural equation modeling approach

    OpenAIRE

    Hsu, Wei-Tsung

    2008-01-01

    In Taiwan, a reading comprehension component is included in the English test of the Senior High Academic Ability Examination (SHAAE) – a national examination which can be regarded as a university entrance examination for students in their final year of senior high. This reading subtest consists of a multiple-choice format. Studies on language assessment, L2 reading and L1-L2 reading have suggested that EFL students’ performance on multiple-choice reading comprehension tests is attributed to t...

  11. MEASURING U.S. CONSUMER PREFERENCES FOR GENETICALLY MODIFIED FOODS USING CHOICE MODELING EXPERIMENTS: THE ROLE OF PRICE, PRODUCT BENEFITS AND TECHNOLOGY

    OpenAIRE

    Onyango, Benjamin M.; Govindasamy, Ramu; Nayga, Rodolfo M.

    2004-01-01

    Food biotechnology promises to deliver a wide range of enhanced consumer benefits. This study models consumer's willingness to trade-off the potential risks of GM foods with the possibility of extracting significant benefits. The results of the choice modeling experiments reflect how different attributes of price, product benefits, and technology influence consumer demand for genetically modified food products. The results suggest that direct health, environmental, and production related bene...

  12. Modeling school choice: A comparison of public, private-independent, private-religious and home-schooled students

    OpenAIRE

    Belfield, Clive R.

    2004-01-01

    U.S. students now have four choices of schooling: public schooling, private–religious schooling, private–independent schooling, and home-schooling. Of these, home-schooling is the most novel: since legalization across the states in the last few decades, it has grown in importance and legitimacy as an alternative choice. Thus, it is now possible to investigate the motivation for home-schooling, relative to the other schooling options. Here, we use two recent large-scale datasets to assess the ...

  13. A hybrid discrete choice model to assess the effect of awareness and attitude towards environmentally friendly travel modes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sottile, Eleonora; Meloni, Italo; Cherchi, Elisabetta

    2015-01-01

    The need to reduce private vehicle use has led to the development of soft measures aimed at re-educating car users through information processes that raise their awareness regarding the benefits of environmentally friendly modes, encouraging them to voluntarily change their mode choice behaviour...... and behaviour in the context of mode choice and to measure the effect of awareness after the implementation of a soft measure after controlling for individual environmental attitudes. Using a dataset gathered in two weeks, before and after individuals are informed of the benefits of using park and ride (P...

  14. Model for managing water in oil refineries based in Strategic Choice Approach; Modelo para gerenciamento de aguas em refinarias de petroleo atraves do 'Strategic Choice Approach'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sobral, Marcos Felipe Falcao; Morais, Danielle Costa [Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE), Recife, PE (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    Like all natural resources, the water has more space on the staff of debates in the business because of the scenarios current and future trends that point to the high costs related to its capitation, use and disposal. As an essential input in various industrial activities, in special way in the process of refining oil, the correct management of water resources becomes a challenge ahead is to be observed in the actions of these strategic industries. So there is needs to structure the problem before solve it, considering the various uncertainties related to decision environmental, it is evident the need a method to assist policy makers in the generation of alternatives for water management in these enterprises. Thus, this work aims to propose a model for managing water in oil refineries, using the Strategic Choice Approach. (author)

  15. Empirical study of travel mode forecasting improvement for the combined revealed preference/stated preference data–based discrete choice model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanfu Qiao

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The combined revealed preference/stated preference data–based discrete choice model has provided the actual choice-making restraints as well as reduced the prediction errors. But the random error variance of alternatives belonging to different data would impact its universality. In this article, we studied the traffic corridor between Chengdu and Longquan with the revealed preference/stated preference joint model, and the single stated preference data model separately predicted the choice probability of each mode. We found the revealed preference/stated preference joint model is universal only when there is a significant difference between the random error terms in different data. The single stated preference data would amplify the travelers’ preference and cause prediction error. We proposed a universal way that uses revealed preference data to modify the single stated preference data parameter estimation results to achieve the composite utility and reduce the prediction error. And the result suggests that prediction results are more reasonable based on the composite utility than the results based on the single stated preference data, especially forecasting the mode share of bus. The future metro line will be the main travel mode in this corridor, and 45% of passenger flow will transfer to the metro.

  16. Leisure and Travel Choice

    OpenAIRE

    María José Caride; Eduardo L. Giménez

    2003-01-01

    It is commonly recognized the relevance of transportation costs for studying recre- ational demand. However, these costs are related with travel and modal choice deci- sions. This paper o ers a theoretical explanation of the new generation of the demand for recreational goods at destiny after the introduction of a new transportation mode that is not the cheapest nor the fastest among the available modes. The main feature of the model deals with the transportation mode-dependent preferences. T...

  17. Choice and Procrastination.

    OpenAIRE

    Ted O'Donoghue and Matthew Rabin.

    2000-01-01

    JEL#: A12, B49, C70, D11, D60, D74, D91, E21 Keywords: choice, naivete, partial naivete, present-biased preferences, procrastination, self control, sophistication, time inconsistency Recent models of procrastination due to self-control problems assume that a procrastinator considers just one option and is unaware of her self-control problems. We develop a model where a person chooses from a menu of options and is partially aware of her self-control problems. This menu model replicates earlier...

  18. The Effect of Data Structure and Model Choices on MFA Results: A Comparison of Phosphorus Balances for Denmark and Austria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klinglmair, Manfred; Zoboli, Ottavia; Laner, David;

    2016-01-01

    to be disregarded. We identify and quantify the effects of choices made in system layout, data material and uncertainty assessment on the outcome of regional MFAs using two recent country-scale MFAs (of Denmark and Austria) of phosphorus as a case study. We highlight the differences in system boundaries...

  19. Mate choice turns cognitive.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, G F; Todd, P M

    1998-05-01

    Evolutionary psychology has revolutionized research on human mate choice and sexual attraction in recent years, combining a rigorous Darwinian framework based on sexual selection theory with a loosely cognitivist orientation to task analysis and mechanism modelling. This hard Darwinian, soft computational approach has been most successful at revealing the adaptive logic behind physical beauty, demonstrating that many sexual cues computed from face and body shape are not arbitrary, but function as reliable indicators of phenotypic and genetic quality. The same approach could be extended from physical to psychological cues if evolutionary psychology built stronger ties with personality psychology, psychometrics and behavioral genetics. A major challenge for mate choice research is to develop more explicit computational models at three levels, specifying: (1) the perceptual adaptations that register sexual cues given sensory input, (2) the judgment adaptations that integrate multiple cues into assessments of overall attractiveness, and (3) the search strategies that people follow in trying to form mutually attracted pairs. We describe both recent efforts and possible extensions in these directions. The resulting confluence between evolutionary principles, cognitive models and game-theoretic insights can put mate choice research at the vanguard of an emerging `evolutionary cognitive science' more concerned with domain-specific mental adaptations than with domain-general intelligence. PMID:21227154

  20. Choice Map: Inferring a Product-Market Map from Panel Data

    OpenAIRE

    Terry Elrod

    1988-01-01

    This paper describes Choice Map, a model that infers a product-market map from panel data. Choice Map is a stochastic brand choice model, a random utility quantal choice model, and a multidimensional scaling procedure. Choice Map combines the parsimony of stochastic choice models, the rationale of random utility models, and the ability of multidimensional scaling procedures to simultaneously infer both brand positions and consumer preferences from preference (choice) data. Choice Map assumes ...

  1. An Exploration of Enterprise Level Partnership and the Influences Informing Private Sector Organisations Choice of this Model in the Republic of Ireland

    OpenAIRE

    O'Leary, Kevin, (Thesis)

    2006-01-01

    The research follows the strategic choice of Partnership and seeks to gain an understanding of the processes and practices which define this concept and the political, economic and historical influences which have shaped it's evolution. The primary focus of this study is to explore the factors which have shaped the decision of private sector einployers to engage with or to reject Partnership as an appropriate model. The literature and the surveys consulted suggest that Partnership has not bec...

  2. Modelling farmers’ choice of adaptation strategies towards climatic and weather variability: Empirical evidence from Chikhwawa district, Southern Malawi

    OpenAIRE

    Phiri, Innocent Pangapanga

    2011-01-01

    This study analysed factors that influence household choice of adaptation strategies and examined the contribution of such strategies on crop production and household food security. The study collected data from 283 randomly selected households from 26 Villages of Chikhwawa district using a semi-structured questionnaire. Results show that irrigation farming, income-generating activities, crop diversification and shifting planting dates are some of the adaptation strategies in the study area. ...

  3. Mathematical learning instruction and teacher motivation factors affecting science technology engineering and math (STEM) major choices in 4-year colleges and universities: Multilevel structural equation modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ahlam

    2011-12-01

    Using the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002/06, this study examined the effects of the selected mathematical learning and teacher motivation factors on graduates' science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) related major choices in 4-year colleges and universities, as mediated by math performance and math self-efficacy. Using multilevel structural equation modeling, I analyzed: (1) the association between mathematical learning instruction factors (i.e., computer, individual, and lecture-based learning activities in mathematics) and students' STEM major choices in 4-year colleges and universities as mediated by math performance and math self-efficacy and (2) the association between school factor, teacher motivation and students' STEM major choices in 4-year colleges and universities via mediators of math performance and math self-efficacy. The results revealed that among the selected learning experience factors, computer-based learning activities in math classrooms yielded the most positive effects on math self-efficacy, which significantly predicted the increase in the proportion of students' STEM major choice as mediated by math self-efficacy. Further, when controlling for base-year math Item Response Theory (IRT) scores, a positive relationship between individual-based learning activities in math classrooms and the first follow-up math IRT scores emerged, which related to the high proportion of students' STEM major choices. The results also indicated that individual and lecture-based learning activities in math yielded positive effects on math self-efficacy, which related to STEM major choice. Concerning between-school levels, teacher motivation yielded positive effects on the first follow up math IRT score, when controlling for base year IRT score. The results from this study inform educators, parents, and policy makers on how mathematics instruction can improve student math performance and encourage more students to prepare for STEM careers. Students

  4. The radiological consequences of notional accidental releases of radioactivity from fast breeder reactors: sensitivity to the choice of atmospheric dispersion model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The radiological consequences of a wide range of notional accidental releases from a 1300 MW(e) LMFBR were assessed in a study published in 1977 (NRPB - R53). In that study representative values were in general adopted for each of the important parameters while recognising that in reality they could vary considerably. The present study is concerned with the sensitivity of the predicted consequences to the choice of atmospheric dispersion models. A comparison is made of the air concentrations predicted by a number of atmospheric models (which have found broad application) for releases of activity in selected meteorological conditions. The implications, in terms of the radiological consequences of particular releases, of differences in the air concentrations predicted by the respective models are assessed semi-quantitatively. In general the radiological consequences are shown to be relatively insensitive to the choice of atmospheric dispersion model. This is particularly so for the incidence of late biological effects; for early biological effects the sensitivity is more pronounced although of the models considered, that adopted in the initial study would yield results at the upper end of the predicted range. (author)

  5. Social Defaults: Observed Choices Become Choice Defaults

    OpenAIRE

    Young Eun Huh; Joachim Vosgerau; Morewedge, Carey K.

    2014-01-01

    Defaults effects can be created by social contexts. The observed choices of others can become social defaults, increasing their choice share. Social default effects are a novel form of social influence not due to normative or informational influence: participants were more likely to mimic observed choices when choosing in private than in public (experiment 1) and when stakes were low rather than high (experiment 2). Like other default effects, social default effects were greater for uncertain...

  6. The influence of country of origin on German consumer preferences for peaches: a latent class choice model

    OpenAIRE

    Cembalo, Luigi; Cicia, Gianni; Del Giudice, Teresa

    2009-01-01

    Germany is an important world level market for fresh fruit. Spain and Italy are the main suppliers of fresh fruit on the German market while the main imported products are apple, grapes, peaches and oranges. The aim of this paper is to assess the role country of origin plays in the preferences of German consumers for peaches. Since German legislation requires fresh fruit sold on the market to clearly display the product’s country of origin, German consumers usually make their choice with this...

  7. Rodent model choice has major impact on variability of standard preclinical readouts associated with diabetes and obesity research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Victoria Svop; Porsgaard, Trine; Lykkesfeldt, Jens;

    2016-01-01

    was to compare the phenotypic variation in commonly used experimental readouts within obesity and diabetes research, for four of the most frequently used mouse strains: inbred C57BL/6 and BALB/c and outbred NMRI and CD-1 mice. The variation for all readouts was examined by calculating the coefficient...... of variation (CV), i.e., the relative variation, including a 95% confidence interval for the CV. We observed that for the majority of the selected readouts, inbred and outbred mice showed comparable phenotypic variation. The observed variation appeared highly influenced by strain choice and type of readout...

  8. A benefit–risk assessment model for statins using multicriteria decision analysis based on a discrete choice experiment in Korean patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byun JH

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Ji-Hye Byun,1 Sun-Hong Kwon,1 Ji-Hye Ha,2 Eui-Kyung Lee1 1School of Pharmacy, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon-si, Gyeonggi-do, 2Ministry of Food and Drug Safety, Cheongju-si, Chungcheongbuk-do, South Korea Purpose: The benefit–risk balance for drugs can alter post approval owing to additional data on efficacy or adverse events. This study developed a quantitative benefit–risk assessment (BRA model for statins using multicriteria decision analysis with discrete choice experiments and compared a recent BRA with that at the time of approval. Patients and methods: Following a systematic review of the literature, the benefit criteria within the statin BRA model were defined as a reduction in the plasma low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level and a reduction in myocardial infarction incidence; the risk criteria were hepatotoxicity (Liv and fatal rhabdomyolysis (Rha. The scores for these criteria were estimated using mixed treatment comparison methods. Weighting was calculated from a discrete choice experiment involving 203 Korean patients. The scores and weights were integrated to produce an overall value representing the benefit–risk balance, and sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results: In this BRA model, low-density lipoprotein (relative importance [RI]: 37.50% was found to be a more important benefit criterion than myocardial infarction (RI: 35.43%, and Liv (RI: 16.28% was a more important risk criterion than Rha (RI: 10.79%. Patients preferred atorvastatin, and the preference ranking of cerivastatin and simvastatin was switched post approval because of the emergence of additional risk information related to cerivastatin. Conclusion: A quantitative statin BRA model confirmed that the preference ranking of statins changed post approval because of the identification of additional benefits or risks. Keywords: multicriteria decision analysis, statin, quantitative benefit–risk assessment, discrete choice experiment

  9. Modeling school choice: A comparison of public, private-independent, private-religious and home-schooled students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clive R. Belfield

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available U.S. students now have four choices of schooling: public schooling, private–religious schooling, private–independent schooling, and home-schooling. Of these, home-schooling is the most novel: since legalization across the states in the last few decades, it has grown in importance and legitimacy as an alternative choice. Thus, it is now possible to investigate the motivation for home-schooling, relative to the other schooling options. Here, we use two recent large-scale datasets to assess the school enrollment decision: the first is the National Household Expenditure Survey (1999, and the second is micro-data on SAT test-takers in 2001. We find that, generally, families with home-schoolers have similar characteristics to those with children at other types of school, but mother’s characteristics – specifically, her employment status – have a strong influence on the decision to home-school. Plausibly, religious belief has an important influence on the schooling decision, not only for Catholic students, but also those of other faiths.

  10. A benefit–risk assessment model for statins using multicriteria decision analysis based on a discrete choice experiment in Korean patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byun, Ji-Hye; Kwon, Sun-Hong; Ha, Ji-Hye; Lee, Eui-Kyung

    2016-01-01

    Purpose The benefit–risk balance for drugs can alter post approval owing to additional data on efficacy or adverse events. This study developed a quantitative benefit–risk assessment (BRA) model for statins using multicriteria decision analysis with discrete choice experiments and compared a recent BRA with that at the time of approval. Patients and methods Following a systematic review of the literature, the benefit criteria within the statin BRA model were defined as a reduction in the plasma low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level and a reduction in myocardial infarction incidence; the risk criteria were hepatotoxicity (Liv) and fatal rhabdomyolysis (Rha). The scores for these criteria were estimated using mixed treatment comparison methods. Weighting was calculated from a discrete choice experiment involving 203 Korean patients. The scores and weights were integrated to produce an overall value representing the benefit–risk balance, and sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results In this BRA model, low-density lipoprotein (relative importance [RI]: 37.50%) was found to be a more important benefit criterion than myocardial infarction (RI: 35.43%), and Liv (RI: 16.28%) was a more important risk criterion than Rha (RI: 10.79%). Patients preferred atorvastatin, and the preference ranking of cerivastatin and simvastatin was switched post approval because of the emergence of additional risk information related to cerivastatin. Conclusion A quantitative statin BRA model confirmed that the preference ranking of statins changed post approval because of the identification of additional benefits or risks. PMID:27358567

  11. Evoked emotions predict food choice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelle R Dalenberg

    Full Text Available In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Therefore, the focus within recent studies shifted towards using emotion-profiling methods that successfully can discriminate between products that are equally liked. However, it is unclear how well scores from emotion-profiling methods predict actual food choice and/or consumption. To test this, we proposed to decompose emotion scores into valence and arousal scores using Principal Component Analysis (PCA and apply Multinomial Logit Models (MLM to estimate food choice using liking, valence, and arousal as possible predictors. For this analysis, we used an existing data set comprised of liking and food-evoked emotions scores from 123 participants, who rated 7 unlabeled breakfast drinks. Liking scores were measured using a 100-mm visual analogue scale, while food-evoked emotions were measured using 2 existing emotion-profiling methods: a verbal and a non-verbal method (EsSense Profile and PrEmo, respectively. After 7 days, participants were asked to choose 1 breakfast drink from the experiment to consume during breakfast in a simulated restaurant environment. Cross validation showed that we were able to correctly predict individualized food choice (1 out of 7 products for over 50% of the participants. This number increased to nearly 80% when looking at the top 2 candidates. Model comparisons showed that evoked emotions better predict food choice than perceived liking alone. However, the strongest predictive strength was achieved by the combination of evoked emotions and liking. Furthermore we showed that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores more accurately predict food choice than verbal food-evoked emotions scores.

  12. Evoked emotions predict food choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalenberg, Jelle R; Gutjar, Swetlana; Ter Horst, Gert J; de Graaf, Kees; Renken, Remco J; Jager, Gerry

    2014-01-01

    In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Therefore, the focus within recent studies shifted towards using emotion-profiling methods that successfully can discriminate between products that are equally liked. However, it is unclear how well scores from emotion-profiling methods predict actual food choice and/or consumption. To test this, we proposed to decompose emotion scores into valence and arousal scores using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and apply Multinomial Logit Models (MLM) to estimate food choice using liking, valence, and arousal as possible predictors. For this analysis, we used an existing data set comprised of liking and food-evoked emotions scores from 123 participants, who rated 7 unlabeled breakfast drinks. Liking scores were measured using a 100-mm visual analogue scale, while food-evoked emotions were measured using 2 existing emotion-profiling methods: a verbal and a non-verbal method (EsSense Profile and PrEmo, respectively). After 7 days, participants were asked to choose 1 breakfast drink from the experiment to consume during breakfast in a simulated restaurant environment. Cross validation showed that we were able to correctly predict individualized food choice (1 out of 7 products) for over 50% of the participants. This number increased to nearly 80% when looking at the top 2 candidates. Model comparisons showed that evoked emotions better predict food choice than perceived liking alone. However, the strongest predictive strength was achieved by the combination of evoked emotions and liking. Furthermore we showed that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores more accurately predict food choice than verbal food-evoked emotions scores. PMID:25521352

  13. Neural Activity Reveals Preferences Without Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Alec; Bernheim, B. Douglas; Camerer, Colin

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the feasibility of inferring the choices people would make (if given the opportunity) based on their neural responses to the pertinent prospects when they are not engaged in actual decision making. The ability to make such inferences is of potential value when choice data are unavailable, or limited in ways that render standard methods of estimating choice mappings problematic. We formulate prediction models relating choices to “non-choice” neural responses and use them to predict out-of-sample choices for new items and for new groups of individuals. The predictions are sufficiently accurate to establish the feasibility of our approach. PMID:25729468

  14. Cost-effective fuel and technology choices in the transportation sector in a future carbon constrained world: Results from the Global Energy Transition (GET) model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grahn, Maria

    2009-06-15

    This thesis analyzes future fuel and technology choices focusing on transport in a carbon constrained world. The analysis tool used in all five appended papers is the cost-minimizing Global Energy Transition (GET) model. Paper I analyzes cost-effective fuel and technology choices for passenger vehicles under a variety of vehicle cost-assumptions and how these choices depend on technology paths in the electricity sector. We find that cost estimates as well as the availability of carbon capture and storage technology and concentrating solar power have a substantial impact, ranging from a dominance of hydrogen to a dominance of electricity. Paper II analyzes the cost-effectiveness of biofuels for transportation, assuming that industrialized regions start reducing their CO{sub 2} emissions some decades ahead of developing regions. We find that biofuels may play a more important role for transportation in industrialized regions if these regions assume their responsibilities and reduce emissions before developing regions start reducing theirs, compared to the case in which all countries take action under a global cap and trade emissions reduction regime. Paper III analyzes how policy instruments aimed at increasing the use of biofuels for transportation in industrialized regions affect CO{sub 2} emissions in industrialized and developing regions. We find that such policy instruments may lead to avoided emissions in industrialized regions, especially during the first 50 years, and in a few specific cases in the developing regions, too. However, in the majority of cases, such a biofuels policy leads to increased emissions in the developing regions, i.e., to 'carbon leakage'. Paper IV analyzes why two global energy systems models reach different results on the cost-effectiveness of biofuels, although the models have strong similarities. We find biomass most cost-effectively used for heat production at low CO{sub 2} taxes in both models. Biomass allocation at

  15. Dynamic Portfolio Choice with Frictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garleanu, Nicolae; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    2016-01-01

    We show how portfolio choice can be modeled in continuous time with transitory and persistent transaction costs, multiple assets, multiple signals predicting returns, and general signal dynamics. The objective function is derived from the limit of discrete-time models with endogenous transaction...

  16. Choice Probability Generating Functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications....

  17. Attention and choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Orquin, Jacob Lund; Mueller Loose, Simone

    2013-01-01

    This paper reviews studies on eye movements in decision making, and compares their observations to theoretical predictions concerning the role of attention in decision making. Four decision theories are examined: rational models, bounded rationality, evidence accumulation, and parallel constraint...... satisfaction models. Although most theories were confirmed with regard to certain predictions, none of the theories adequately accounted for the role of attention during decision making. Several observations emerged concerning the drivers and down-stream effects of attention on choice, suggesting...... that these assumptions are implausible, and that more accurate assumptions could have been made based on prior attention and eye movement research. Future decision making research would benefit from greater integration with attention research....

  18. Savage Misunderstandings about Choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gura, Mark

    1993-01-01

    Although Jonathan Kozol is well-informed about choice program imperfections, schools of choice are superior to traditional schools. In places like East Harlem, school choice is helping transform youngsters from captive, disenfranchised malcontents to true students involved in their education. The challenge is to make every district school worthy…

  19. Applying Health Locus of Control and Latent Class Modelling to food and physical activity choices affecting CVD risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grisolía, José M; Longo, Alberto; Hutchinson, George; Kee, Frank

    2015-05-01

    Health Locus of Control (HLC) classifies our beliefs about the connection between our actions and health outcomes (Skinner, 1996) into three categories: "internal control", corresponding to health being the result of an individual's effort and habits; "control by powerful others", whereby health depends on others, such as doctors; and "chance control", according to which health depends on fate and chance. Using Choice Experiments we investigate the relationship between HLC and willingness to change lifestyle, in terms of eating habits, physical activity and associated cardiovascular disease risk, in a 384 person sample representative of the 40-65 aged population of Northern Ireland administered between February and July 2011. Using latent class analysis we identify three discrete classes of people based on their HLC: the first class is sceptical about their capacity to control their health and certain unhealthy habits. Despite being unsatisfied with their situation, they are reluctant to accept behaviour changes. The second is a group of individuals unhappy with their current situation but willing to change through exercise and diet. Finally, a group of healthy optimists is identified, who are satisfied with their current situation but happy to take more physical activity and improve their diet. Our findings show that any policy designed to modify people's health related behaviour should consider the needs of this sceptical class which represents a considerable proportion of the population in the region. PMID:25779694

  20. Rodent model choice has major impact on variability of standard preclinical readouts associated with diabetes and obesity research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Victoria S; Porsgaard, Trine; Lykkesfeldt, Jens; Hvid, Henning

    2016-01-01

    Laboratory rodents are available as either genetically defined inbred strains or genetically undefined outbred stocks. As outbred rodents are generally thought to display a higher level of phenotypic variation compared to inbred strains, it has been argued that experimental studies should preferentially be performed by using inbred rodents. However, very few studies with adequate sample sizes have in fact compared phenotypic variation between inbred strains and outbred stocks of rodents and moreover, these studies have not reached consistent conclusions. The aim of the present study was to compare the phenotypic variation in commonly used experimental readouts within obesity and diabetes research, for four of the most frequently used mouse strains: inbred C57BL/6 and BALB/c and outbred NMRI and CD-1 mice. The variation for all readouts was examined by calculating the coefficient of variation (CV), i.e., the relative variation, including a 95% confidence interval for the CV. We observed that for the majority of the selected readouts, inbred and outbred mice showed comparable phenotypic variation. The observed variation appeared highly influenced by strain choice and type of readout, which suggests that these collectively would serve as more predictive of the phenotypic variation than the more general classification of mice as inbred or outbred based on genetic heterogeneity. PMID:27648148

  1. A comprehensive action determination model - Toward a broader understanding of ecological behaviour using the example of travel mode choice

    OpenAIRE

    Klöckner, Christian; Blöbaum, Anke

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines a first version of a Comprehensive Action Determination Model (CADM) of ecological behaviour that incorporates intentional, normative, situational, and habitual influences on environmentally friendly behaviour. The main assumptions of the theory of planned behaviour (TPB), the norm-activation model (NAM), the theoretical concept of habit and the ipsative theory of behaviour were integrated into a comprehensive model. The model was tested using a structural equation modelli...

  2. Budgeting Based on Results: A Return-on-Investment Model Contributes to More Effective Annual Spending Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Kelt L.

    2011-01-01

    One major problem in developing school district budgets immune to cuts is the model administrators traditionally use--an expenditure model. The simplicity of this model is seductive: What were the revenues and expenditures last year? What are the expected revenues and expenditures this year? A few adjustments here and there and one has a budget.…

  3. Choice of the Models for the Co-operative Innovation of Industries, Universities and Research Institutes by Game Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Yiyang Fan; Youhua Zhang

    2010-01-01

    This paper builds game model to analyze selection issues of IUR co-operation model through Nash bargaining theory. The result shows that, the stronger innovative capability, more economic benefits expected, less technical content of scientific research, companies more inclined to choose a higher degree of close model; otherwise, companies tend to choose more closely integrated degree lower mode.

  4. Analysis of the benefits of designing and implementing a virtual didactic model of multiple choice exam and problem-solving heuristic report, for first year engineering students

    CERN Document Server

    Bennun, Leonardo

    2015-01-01

    Improvements in performance and approval obtained by first year engineering students from University of Concepcion, Chile, were studied, once a virtual didactic model of multiple-choice exam, was implemented. This virtual learning resource was implemented in the Web ARCO platform and allows training, by facing test models comparable in both time and difficulty to those that they will have to solve during the course. It also provides a feedback mechanism for both: 1) The students, since they can verify the level of their knowledge. Once they have finished the simulations, they can access a complete problem-solving heuristic report of each problem; 2) The teachers, since they can obtain information about the habits of the students in their strategies of preparation; and they also can diagnose the weaknesses of the students prior to the exam. This study indicates how this kind of preparation generates substantial improvements on the approval rates by allowing the students: 1) A more structured and oriented syste...

  5. Pemodelan Share-Of-Choice Problem

    OpenAIRE

    Panjaitan, Dedy Juliandri

    2012-01-01

    Share-of-choice problem is to maximize the number of respondents to choose at least one product from a product line that has a high utility of each status-quo product. Model Share-of-choice with a budget price and aims to combine the price with budget constraints and minimum limits acceptable to the utility of each at- tribute selected by the share-of-choice problem. The proposed heuristics to solve models of share-of-choice problem with a budget price is a heuristic beam search.

  6. 基于前景理论的驾驶人停车选择模型%Parking choice model based on the prospect theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谢秉磊; 王志利; 赵泽斌

    2012-01-01

    考虑到期望效用理论的缺陷及驾驶人的有限理性,利用前景理论,建立了停车选择决策模型.通过对调查数据的回归分析,确定了停车影响因素的参照点,建立了价值函数及决策权重函数,得到了单因素的前景值.利用模糊偏好下多目标决策权重赋值方法,确定了影响因素的权重,从而建立了驾驶入的停车选择模型.%In terms of defects of expected utility theory and drivers' bounded rationality, prospect theory was used to establish a new parking choice model. Based on survey data, the reference points of factors to influence parking choice were estimated with regression analysis. The value function and weight functions of decision-making for single factor were established so that the prospect value of every factor could be acquired. The multi-objective decision-making under fuzzy preference weight assignment method was used to assign the weight of every factor to obtain the overall values of options.

  7. Modeling Commute Length Choice Decisions in Dual-income Households%双职工家庭通勤出行长度选择研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    鲜于建川; 隽志才

    2012-01-01

    以双职工家庭中夫妇俩通勤出行长度选择为研究对象,建立双变量有序Probit模型,分析了影响通勤出行长度选择的主要因素,揭示了夫妇俩通勤出行选择之间的相互影响模式.模型结果表明年龄、性别、家庭收入、居住环境等因素对双方通勤出行选择的影响方向相同,互补效应在双方的通勤出行长度选择中占主导地位.%Commuter behaviour analysis has gained a lot of attention in the fields of transportation and land-use modelling. Since commute length reflects the physical separation between work and home, individual's commuting pattern is expected to be adjusted in response to the changes in housing or residential locations. Motivated by the importance of commuter behaviour this study intended to investigate the choices of commute trips of spouses of dual-income households. A bivariate ordered-Probit model was developed with commute length of the spouses as endogenous variables to examine the interrelationships between commute decisions of spouses. The model results provide useful insights into the effects of individual/household sociodemographics, housing and location characteristics on commute length choice. It is shown that journeys to work of the two spouses in a dual-income household appear to be complements and not substitutes. Results from this research would help for making better policies to provide mobility options and job accessibility.

  8. 考虑燃油经济性的出行者路径选择模型%Model for route choice considering fuel economy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    冯雨芹; 冷军强; 张亚平; 孙庚; 冯艳红

    2012-01-01

    To study the impact of fuel economy on route choice, the function of generalized travel cost was defined as the weighted sum of fuel consumption, travel time, and travel time reliability. The road network units fuel con-sumption models based on traffic saturation were established to quantify the fuel consumption cost index. The bu-reau of Public Roads (BPR) function and delay model in Highway Capacity Manual 2000 (HCM2000) were re-spectively used to quantify the link travel time and intersection delay. The reliability was introduced to quantify the corresponding cost due to fluctuation of travel time and delay. Moreover, the stochastic user equilibrium assignment model was formulated on the assumption of minimization of generalized travel cost. A small test road network as a numerical case was designed to demonstrate the practicality of the proposed model. The results show that the traffic assignment model based on the generalized travel cost may well reflect the route choice activity considering fuel con-sumption. The weighted coefficients have a conspicuous impact on route choice. The route choice based on fuel e-conomy may decrease the road network fuel consumption by about 9%.%为研究燃油经济性对出行者路径选择的影响,将燃油消耗、行程时间及其可靠性的线性加权和定义为广义出行费用,以饱和度为参数建立了路网单元燃油消耗模型并量化燃油消耗出行费用.分别以BPR函数及HCM2000延误公式量化路段行程时间及交叉口延误,以二者可靠性量化行程时间及延误波动的相应费用建立了基于广义出行费用的随机用户平衡分配模型.通过在小型测试路网上进行计算分析表明:基于广义出行费用的交通分配模型能够较好地反映考虑燃油经济性的出行者路径选择行为;出行费用权系数对出行者路径选择行为影响显著,考虑燃油经济性的路径选择行为可有效减少路网燃油消耗,可达9%左右.

  9. Speakers' choice of frame in binary choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc van Buiten

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available A distinction is proposed between extit{recommending for} preferred choice options and extit{recommending against} non-preferred choice options. In binary choice, both recommendation modes are logically, though not psychologically, equivalent. We report empirical evidence showing that speakers recommending for preferred options predominantly select positive frames, which are less common when speakers recommend against non-preferred options. In addition, option attractiveness is shown to affect speakers' choice of frame, and adoption of recommendation mode. The results are interpreted in terms of three compatibility effects, (i extit{recommendation mode---valence framing compatibility}: speakers' preference for positive framing is enhanced under extit{recommending for} and diminished under extit{recommending against} instructions, (ii extit{option attractiveness---valence framing compatibility}: speakers' preference for positive framing is more pronounced for attractive than for unattractive options, and (iii extit{recommendation mode---option attractiveness compatibility}: speakers are more likely to adopt a extit{recommending for} approach for attractive than for unattractive binary choice pairs.

  10. The impact of perceptions in averting-decision models: An application of the special regressor method to drinking water choices

    OpenAIRE

    Bontemps, Christophe; Nauges, Céline

    2014-01-01

    Individuals are commonly surveyed about their perception or assessment of risk and these variables are often used to explain individuals’ actions to protect themselves against these risks. Perceptions appear as endogenous variables in traditional theoretical averting-decision models but, quite surprisingly, endogeneity of perceived risk is not always controlled for in empirical studies. In this article, we present different models that can be useful to the practitioner when estimating binary ...

  11. Practice Prize Paper --Applying a Dynamic Model of Consumer Choice to Guide Brand Development at Jetstar Airways

    OpenAIRE

    Peter J. Danaher; John H. Roberts; Ken Roberts; Alan Simpson

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes the use of a marketing science model by Jetstar, a subsidiary of Australia's leading airline, Qantas, to effectively and profitably compete in the low-cost carrier marketplace. We trace the evolution of the Jetstar strategy from a baseline calibration of its initial position, to its efforts to attain price competitiveness and service parity, followed by its highly focused, cost-effective service delivery strategy. We develop a hierarchical model with parameters estimated ...

  12. Incorporating Perceptions, Learning Trends, Latent Classes, and Personality Traits in the Modeling of Driver Heterogeneity in Route Choice Behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Tawfik, Aly M.

    2012-01-01

    Driver heterogeneity in travel behavior has repeatedly been cited in the literature as a limitation that needs to be addressed. In this work, driver heterogeneity is addressed from four different perspectives. First, driver heterogeneity is addressed by models of driver perceptions of travel conditions: travel distance, time, and speed. Second, it is addressed from the perspective of driver learning trends and models of driver-types. Driver type is not commonly used in the vernacular of trans...

  13. A discrete choice modeling framework for pedestrian walking behavior with application to human tracking in video sequences

    OpenAIRE

    Antonini, Gianluca

    2005-01-01

    Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) have triggered important research activities in the context of behavioral dynamics. Several new models and simulators for driving and travel behaviors, along with new integrated systems to manage various elements of ITS, have been proposed in the past decades. In this context, less attention has been given to pedestrian modeling and simulation. In 2001, the first international conference on Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics took place in Duisburg, Ger...

  14. Mate choice decisions by searchers

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Daniel D.WIEGMANN; Lisa M.ANGELONI; Steven M.SEUBERT; J.Gordon WADE

    2013-01-01

    For more than two decades rudimentary versions of thefixed sample and sequential search strategies have provided the primary theoretical foundation for the study of mate choice decisions by searchers.The theory that surrounds these models has expanded markedly over this time period.In this paper,we review and extend results derived from these models,with a focus on the empirical analysis of searcher behavior.The basic models are impractical for empirical purposes because they rely on the assumption that searchers-and,for applied purposes,researchers-assess prospective mates based on their quality,the fitness consequences of mate choice decisions.Here we expound versions of the models that are more empirically useful,reformulated to reflect decisions based on male phenotypic characters.For some organisms,it may be possible to use preference functions to derive predictions from the reformulated models and thereby avoid difficulties associated with the measurement of male quality per se.But predictions derived from the two models are difficult to differentiate empirically,regardless of how the models are formulated.Here we develop ideas that illustrate how this goal might be accomplished.In addition,we clarify how the variability of male quality should be evaluated and we extend what is known about how this variability influences searcher behavior under each model.More general difficulties associated with the empirical study of mate choice decisions by searchers are also discussed.

  15. Mate choice decisions by searchers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel D. WIEGMANN, Lisa M. ANGELONI, Steven M. SEUBERT, J. Gordon WADE

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available For more than two decades rudimentary versions of the fixed sample and sequential search strategies have provided the primary theoretical foundation for the study of mate choice decisions by searchers. The theory that surrounds these models has expanded markedly over this time period. In this paper, we review and extend results derived from these models, with a focus on the empirical analysis of searcher behavior. The basic models are impractical for empirical purposes because they rely on the assumption that searchers—and, for applied purposes, researchers—assess prospective mates based on their quality, the fitness consequences of mate choice decisions. Here we expound versions of the models that are more empirically useful, reformulated to reflect decisions based on male phenotypic characters. For some organisms, it may be possible to use preference functions to derive predictions from the reformulated models and thereby avoid difficulties associated with the measurement of male quality per se. But predictions derived from the two models are difficult to differentiate empirically, regardless of how the models are formulated. Here we develop ideas that illustrate how this goal might be accomplished. In addition, we clarify how the variability of male quality should be evaluated and we extend what is known about how this variability influences searcher behavior under each model. More general difficulties associated with the empirical study of mate choice decisions by searchers are also discussed [Current Zoology 59 (2: 184–199, 2013].

  16. How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars-Part I: Model structure, simulation of bounded rationality, and model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueller, Michel G. [ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Natural and Social Science Interface, Universitaetstr. 22, CHN J 73.2, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland); Haan, Peter de [ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Natural and Social Science Interface, Universitaetstr. 22, CHN J 73.2, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland)], E-mail: peter.dehaan@env.ethz.ch

    2009-03-15

    This article presents an agent-based microsimulation capable of forecasting the effects of policy levers that influence individual choices of new passenger cars. The fundamental decision-making units are households distinguished by sociodemographic characteristics and car ownership. A two-stage model of individual decision processes is employed. In the first stage, individual choice sets are constructed using simple, non-compensatory rules that are based on previously owned cars. Second, decision makers evaluate alternatives in their individual choice set using a multi-attributive weighting rule. The attribute weights are based on a multinomial logit model for cross-country policy analysis in European countries. Additionally, prospect theory and the notion of mental accounting are used to model the perception of monetary values. The microsimulation forecasts actual market observations with high accuracy, both on the level of aggregate market characteristics as well as on a highly resolved level of distributions of market shares. The presented approach is useful for the assessment of policies that influence individual purchase decisions of new passenger cars; it allows accounting for a highly resolved car fleet and differentiated consumer segments. As a result, the complexity of incentive schemes can be represented and detailed structural changes can be investigated.

  17. How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars-Part I: Model structure, simulation of bounded rationality, and model validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article presents an agent-based microsimulation capable of forecasting the effects of policy levers that influence individual choices of new passenger cars. The fundamental decision-making units are households distinguished by sociodemographic characteristics and car ownership. A two-stage model of individual decision processes is employed. In the first stage, individual choice sets are constructed using simple, non-compensatory rules that are based on previously owned cars. Second, decision makers evaluate alternatives in their individual choice set using a multi-attributive weighting rule. The attribute weights are based on a multinomial logit model for cross-country policy analysis in European countries. Additionally, prospect theory and the notion of mental accounting are used to model the perception of monetary values. The microsimulation forecasts actual market observations with high accuracy, both on the level of aggregate market characteristics as well as on a highly resolved level of distributions of market shares. The presented approach is useful for the assessment of policies that influence individual purchase decisions of new passenger cars; it allows accounting for a highly resolved car fleet and differentiated consumer segments. As a result, the complexity of incentive schemes can be represented and detailed structural changes can be investigated

  18. Reduced motivation in the BACHD rat model of Huntington disease is dependent on the choice of food deprivation strategy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Karl Håkan Jansson

    Full Text Available Huntington disease (HD is an inherited neurodegenerative disease characterized by motor, cognitive, psychiatric and metabolic symptoms. Animal models of HD show phenotypes that can be divided into similar categories, with the metabolic phenotype of certain models being characterized by obesity. Although interesting in terms of modeling metabolic symptoms of HD, the obesity phenotype can be problematic as it might confound the results of certain behavioral tests. This concerns the assessment of cognitive function in particular, as tests for such phenotypes are often based on food depriving the animals and having them perform tasks for food rewards. The BACHD rat is a recently established animal model of HD, and in order to ensure that behavioral characterization of these rats is done in a reliable way, a basic understanding of their physiology is needed. Here, we show that BACHD rats are obese and suffer from discrete developmental deficits. When assessing the motivation to lever push for a food reward, BACHD rats were found to be less motivated than wild type rats, although this phenotype was dependent on the food deprivation strategy. Specifically, the phenotype was present when rats of both genotypes were deprived to 85% of their respective free-feeding body weight, but not when deprivation levels were adjusted in order to match the rats' apparent hunger levels. The study emphasizes the importance of considering metabolic abnormalities as a confounding factor when performing behavioral characterization of HD animal models.

  19. Normal tissue complication probabilities: dependence on choice of biological model and dose-volume histogram reduction scheme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purpose: To evaluate the impact of dose-volume histogram (DVH) reduction schemes and models of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) on ranking of radiation treatment plans. Methods and Materials: Data for liver complications in humans and for spinal cord in rats were used to derive input parameters of four different NTCP models. DVH reduction was performed using two schemes: 'effective volume' and 'preferred Lyman'. DVHs for competing treatment plans were derived from a sample DVH by varying dose uniformity in a high dose region so that the obtained cumulative DVHs intersected. Treatment plans were ranked according to the calculated NTCP values. Results: Whenever the preferred Lyman scheme was used to reduce the DVH, competing plans were indistinguishable as long as the mean dose was constant. The effective volume DVH reduction scheme did allow us to distinguish between these competing treatment plans. However, plan ranking depended on the radiobiological model used and its input parameters. Conclusions: Dose escalation will be a significant part of radiation treatment planning using new technologies, such as 3-D conformal radiotherapy and tomotherapy. Such dose escalation will depend on how the dose distributions in organs at risk are interpreted in terms of expected complication probabilities. The present study indicates considerable variability in predicted NTCP values because of the methods used for DVH reduction and radiobiological models and their input parameters. Animal studies and collection of standardized clinical data are needed to ascertain the effects of non-uniform dose distributions and to test the validity of the models currently in use

  20. Informed food choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Coff, Christian Eyde

    2014-01-01

    Food production and consumption influence health, the environment, social structures, etc. For this reason consumers are increasingly interested in information about these effects. Disclosure of information about the consequences of food production and consumption is essential for the idea...... of informed food choice. An informed food choice is an enlightened food choice made by the individual based on the information made available. Food choices are made when shopping for food or when eating/drinking, and information is believed to give clarity to the options by increasing market transparency......, supporting rationality (the best choice), consumers’ self-governance (autonomy) and life coherence (integrity). On a practical level, informed food choice remains an ideal to strive for, as information on food often is inadequate....

  1. Informed Food Choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Coff, Christian

    2014-01-01

    Food production and consumption influence health, the environment, social structures, etc. For this reason consumers are increasingly interested in information about these effects. Disclosure of information about the consequences of food production and consumption is essential for the idea...... of informed food choice. An informed food choice is an enlightened food choice made by the individual based on the information made available. Food choices are made when shopping for food or when eating/drinking, and information is believed to give clarity to the options by increasing market transparency......, supporting rationality (the best choice), consumers’ self-governance (autonomy) and life coherence (integrity). On a practical level, informed food choice remains an ideal to strive for, as information on food often is inadequate....

  2. 条件固定效应回归的活动目的地选择模型——一个案例研究%A case study on destination choice with C-Logit model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高晶鑫; 隽志才; 吴文静; 董英荣

    2011-01-01

    This paper focus on the travel destination choice of urban residents. It illustrates the methods for how to predict the decision of travel destination choice, and establishes C-Logit model of destination choice. Under the help of the urban travel data from an urban traffic area in our country, it calibrates the model and designs simulation process of destination choice for the residents to explain the many factors which can affect the destination choice decision. The prediction results which have a higher prediction accuracy from the disaggregate level were analyzed. This paper provides a new method to simulate the travel destination choice of urban residents.%本文以城市居民出行目的地选择为研究对象,建立条件固定效应回归(C-Logit)目的地选择模型.结合我国某城市交通小区城市居民日出行数据对模型进行标定求解,并描述目的地选择预测流程,解释了影响居民出行目的地选择的诸多因素.对预测结果进行分析,得到较高的目的地选择预测精度,为从非集计层面研究城市居民出行目的地选择提供了新的思路.

  3. Kinky Choices, Dictators and Split Might : A Non-Cooperative Model for Household Consumption and Labor Supply

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boone, J.; van der Wiel, K.M.; Vermeulen, F.M.P.

    2009-01-01

    It is unlikely that husbands and wives always agree on exactly what public goods to buy. Nor do they necessarily agree on how many hours to work with obvious consequences for the household budget. We therefore model consumption and labor supply behavior of a couple in a non-cooperative setting by ad

  4. Kinky choices, dictators and split might : A non-cooperative model for household consumption and labor supply

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boone, J.; van der Wiel, K.; van Soest, A.H.O.; Vermeulen, F.M.P.

    2014-01-01

    We model consumption and labor supply behavior of a couple in a non-cooperative setting. Using minimal assumptions, we prove that demand for public goods is characterized by three regimes. It is either determined by the preferences of one of the partners only (Husband Dictatorship or Wife Dictatorsh

  5. "Good Enough" Psychiatric Residency Training in Borderline Personality Disorder: Challenges, Choice Points, and a Model Generalist Curriculum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unruh, Brandon T; Gunderson, John G

    2016-01-01

    While the public health burden posed by borderline personality disorder (BPD) rivals that associated with other major mental illnesses, the prevailing disposition of psychiatrists toward the disorder remains characterized by misinformation, stigma, aversive attitudes, and insufficient familiarity with effective generalist treatments that can be delivered in nonspecialized health care settings. Residency training programs are well positioned to better equip the next generation of psychiatrists to address these issues, but no consensus or guidelines currently exist for what and how residents should be taught about managing BPD. Instead, disproportionately limited curricular time, teaching of non-evidence-based approaches, and modeling of conceptually confused combinations of techniques drawn from specialty BPD treatments are offered. In this article, we (1) explain why training in a generalist model is sensible and why alternative approaches are not appropriate for residents, (2) propose a plan for giving residents adequate training via a generalist model, highlighting minimal didactic and clinical-training objectives (dubbed "core competencies" and "milestones") and a model curriculum developed at the Massachusetts General Hospital/McLean Hospital residency program, and (3) describe obstacles to implementation of effective generalist training posed by infrastructural, faculty-centered, and resident-centered variables. PMID:27603744

  6. Stages of Change or Changes of Stage? Predicting Transitions in Transtheoretical Model Stages in Relation to Healthy Food Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armitage, Christopher J.; Sheeran, Paschal; Conner, Mark; Arden, Madelynne A.

    2004-01-01

    Relatively little research has examined factors that account for transitions between transtheoretical model (TTM) stages of change. The present study (N=787) used sociodemographic, TTM, and theory of planned behavior (TPB) variables, as well as theory-driven interventions to predict changes in stage. Longitudinal analyses revealed that…

  7. The effect of unconditional cash transfers on adult labour supply: A unitary discrete choice model for the case of Ecuador

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mideros, A.; O'Donoghue, C.

    2014-01-01

    We examine the effect of unconditional cash transfers by a unitary discrete labour supply model. We argue that there is no negative income effect of social transfers in the case of poor adults because leisure could not be assumed to be a normal good under such conditions. Using data from the nationa

  8. Choice Neighborhood Grantees

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Housing and Urban Development — Choice Neighborhoods grants transform distressed neighborhoods, public and assisted projects into viable and sustainable mixed-income neighborhoods by linking...

  9. Fuel choices in urban Indian households

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farsi, Mehdi; Filippini, Massimo [Centre for Energy Policy and Economics, Department of Management, Technology and Economics, ETH Zurich, Switzerland and Department of Economics, University of Lugano, (Switzerland); Pachauri, Shonali [International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361, Laxenburg, (Austria)

    2007-12-15

    This paper applies an ordered discrete choice framework to model fuel choices and patterns of cooking fuel use in urban Indian households. The choices considered are for three main cooking fuels: firewood, kerosene, and LPG (liquid petroleum gas). The models, estimated using a large microeconomic dataset, show a reasonably good performance in the prediction of households' primary and secondary fuel choices. This suggests that ordered models can be used to analyze multiple fuel use patterns in the Indian context. The results show that lack of sufficient income is one of the main factors that retard households from using cleaner fuels, which usually also require the purchase of relatively expensive equipment. The results also indicate that households are sensitive to LPG prices. In addition to income and price, several socio-demographic factors such as education and sex of the head of the household are also found to be important in determining household fuel choice. (Author).

  10. Optimal Portfolio Choice with Wash Sale Constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Astrup Jensen, Bjarne; Marekwica, Marcel

    2011-01-01

    We analytically solve the portfolio choice problem in the presence of wash sale constraints in a two-period model with one risky asset. Our results show that wash sale constraints can heavily affect portfolio choice of investors with unrealized losses. The trading behavior of such investors...... to increasing the number of trading dates and introducing a second risky asset and a correlation structure....

  11. The Impact of Choice Expression Modalities on Choice Rationality and Choice Satisfaction: An Empirical Investigation.

    OpenAIRE

    Voß, Thorsten

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation comprises two empirical studies that investigate the impact of manual versus oral choice expression modalities on the objective rationality of choice (Study 1) and the impact of oral versus manual choice expression modalities on choice satisfaction (Study 2).

  12. Statistical strategies for constructing health risk models with multiple pollutants and their interactions: possible choices and comparisons

    OpenAIRE

    Sun, Zhichao; Tao, Yebin; Li, Shi; Ferguson, Kelly K; Meeker, John D.; Park, Sung Kyun; Batterman, Stuart A.; Mukherjee, Bhramar

    2013-01-01

    Background As public awareness of consequences of environmental exposures has grown, estimating the adverse health effects due to simultaneous exposure to multiple pollutants is an important topic to explore. The challenges of evaluating the health impacts of environmental factors in a multipollutant model include, but are not limited to: identification of the most critical components of the pollutant mixture, examination of potential interaction effects, and attribution of health effects to ...

  13. Approach Choice and Innovative Model Design of Grass-root Agricultural Technology Promotion under the View of New Countryside

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces the approach types of agricultural technology promotion we can choose in the process of new countryside construction, and there are mainly 6 types, namely government-domination-oriented approach, market-development-oriented approach, university (scientific research institution)-education-oriented approach, farmers’ participation-oriented approach, direct-training-oriented approach and individual-service-oriented approach, including 20 models. The problems existing in the grass-root agricultural technology promotion in the process of new village construction are analyzed as follows: the awareness of innovation is not strong; scientific research, education, and promotion are disjointed; the construction of specific work system lags behind; the structure of promotion team is irrational, and the quality of promotion personnel is yet to be promoted; the cultural quality of farmers is low, and the cooperative organizations are not sound; the working conditions are poor, and the basic security is inadequate; the investment channel is simple and the supply amount is badly short; the methods of agricultural technology promotion do not adapt to the requirements of new situation. According to the characteristics and internal requirements of grass-root agricultural technology promotion, we creatively design an overall working model, and put forward new measures from objective of grass-root agricultural technology promotion, service object, service content, organization work and scope, method, role of agricultural technology personnel and so on.

  14. Cultural evolution of a belief controlling human mate choice: dynamic modeling of the hinoeuma superstition in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Cinthia Marie; Iwasa, Yoh

    2012-09-21

    We develop a simple cultural dynamics model to dicuss the spread of the hinoeuma superstition in Japan. A large drop in the number of newborn babies observed in 1966 was attributed mainly to parents' avoiding having a child born in a hinoeuma year. Presumably, Japanese parents were afraid that a daughter born in 1966 (a hinoeuma year) might later have difficulty finding a mate. We construct mathematical models to examine whether the hinoeuma superstition would likely become extinct or be stably maintained in the population. We classify members of a population according to whether they believed the hinoeuma superstition (believer or nonbeliever), their gender (male or female), and their year of birth (born in a hinoeuma year or not). We compare several cases that differ according to (1) whether the belief in the superstition was transmitted to children by matrilineal, patrilineal, or Mendelian inheritance; (2) which parent controlled the timing of pregnancy and childbirth (maternal or paternal birth control); and (3) the probability of birth control failure. Our results show that the hinoeuma superstition is likely to spread if the mother has a strong influence on birth control and on the belief of their children. In contrast, if birth control is paternal and the belief is passed down from father to child, the hinoeuma superstition is likely to become extinct. In between these extremes, whether the superstition becomes extinct or fixed in the population depends on the initial frequency of believers in the population.

  15. Latinos and School Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gastic, Billie; Coronado, Diana Salas

    2011-01-01

    The authors describe how Latino students are underrepresented in public schools of choice. They provide evidence to refute the claim that Latino students who choose to leave assigned public schools enroll in religious schools instead. Charter schools stand out as the type of public schools of choice where Latino students are well represented.…

  16. Children's Choices for 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reading Teacher, 2008

    2008-01-01

    Each year 12,500 school children from different regions of the United States read and vote on the newly published children's and young adults' trade books that they like best. The Children's Choices for 2008 list is the 34th in a series that first appeared as "Classroom Choices" in the November 1975 issue of "The Reading Teacher" (RT), a…

  17. Children's Choices for 2002.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reading Teacher, 2002

    2002-01-01

    Presents annotations of children's choices of the top 100 children's and young adults' trade books for 2002. Lists books selected for the Children's Choice by reading levels: beginning readers; young readers; intermediate readers; and advanced readers. Provides tips and activities for parents, primary caregivers, and educators. (SG)

  18. Your Genes, Your Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Table of Contents Your Genes, Your Choices describes the Human Genome Project, the science behind it, and the ethical, legal, and social issues that are ... Nothing could be further from the truth. Your Genes, Your Choices points out how the progress of ...

  19. Crime Location Choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bernasco, Wim; Ruiter, Stijn

    2014-01-01

    Most behavior of interest to social scientists is choice behavior: actions people commit while they could also have done something else. In geographical and environmental criminology, a new framework has emerged for analyzing individual crime location choice. It is based on the principle of random u

  20. How does consumer knowledge affect environmentally sustainable choices?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peschel, Anne Odile; Grebitus, Carola; Steiner, Bodo;

    2016-01-01

    This paper examines consumers' knowledge and lifestyle profiles and preferences regarding two environmentally labeled food staples, potatoes and ground beef. Data from online choice experiments conducted in Canada and Germany are analyzed through latent class choice modeling to identify theinflue...

  1. 基于活动的旅游出行链选择行为研究%Activity-Based Model for Tourist's Trip-Chain Choice Behavior

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵昕; 关宏志

    2012-01-01

    Based on the survey of tourists in Beijing, the tourist trip chaining behaviors were analyzed by Multinomial Logit model. Tourists travel attributes and personal attributes were considered to have a significant effect on the trip chain, and the allocation of time is also taken into consideration. The result demonstrates that six variables, including age, occupation, travel time, local tourists or not, be familiar with attraction or not, allocation of time, have significant impact on trip chain choice. The results show that the proposed model is of high accuracy, which can provide a theoretical basis for prediction of tourist travel.%通过对在京旅游的游客进行调查,以游客的个人属性和出游属性作为影响因素,将游客对不同类型活动的时间分配作为前提,对游客的出行链选择行为建立了Multinoinial Logit模型.模型分析表明:年龄、职业、出游时间、是否本地游客、对景点是否熟悉以及游客对活动时间的分配等均对出行链选择有显著影响;模型具有较高的精度,为游客出行预测提供了理论依据.

  2. [Fertility behavior in Quebec, family allowances, and taxes: results and simulations with a discrete choice model for the years 1975-1987].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefebvre, P; Brouillette, L; Felteau, C

    1994-12-01

    "We suppose that women (couples), who are less than 40 years old, are faced with three types of sequential decisions: the fertility decision, the decision relative to the number of children to have and the decision concerning labour force participation.... We use a nested polychotomous discrete choice model to estimate the responsiveness of the behaviour of 'married' women in Quebec to variations in the expected flow of revenue resulting from changes in the parameters of the personal income tax and in the level of public monetary transfers conditional on the number of children. The model is estimated with micro-data from 9 repeated cross-sections for the years 1975 to 1987 with a full information maximum likelihood method.... This empirical setting is used to simulate the effects of changes made to the fiscal and transfer policies in favor of families with dependent children on fertility, [women's] labor force participation and the importance of spending costs for the two levels of government." (SUMMARY IN ENG) PMID:12291903

  3. Choice of model and uncertainties of the gamma-ray and neutron dosimetry in relation to the chromosome aberrations data in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rühm, W; Walsh, L; Chomentowski, M

    2003-07-01

    ) value of 15 at 1 Gy which is recommended here, would predict between 10% and 20% of the observed chromosome aberrations to be due to neutrons, at all doses. Because of the good agreement between DS86 predictions and the results of retrospective gamma and neutron dosimetry, the modifications applied here to DS86 doses are relatively small. Consequently, the choices of model and RBE values were found to be the major factors dominating the interpretation of the chromosome data for Hiroshima and Nagasaki, with the dose modifications resulting in a smaller influence. PMID:12844221

  4. Choices after Graduation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    正From the above table,we can see that the students of this university have three main choices after graduation.Of these choices,the students who have found a job only take up 50%.In contrast,students who pursue further study by taking the postgraduate entrance exam or going abroad have increased greatly than before, with the total percentage of 47%.Indeed,this phenomenon is also quite common in other universities. The following factors can account for the choices of graduates.Above all,with the enrollment extension of universities,college graduates are facing the severe em-

  5. Latent factors and route choice behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    A behaviourally realistic description of the route choice process should consider variables that are both observable, such as travel time and cost, and unobservable, such as attitudes, perceptions, spatial abilities and network knowledge. This manuscript focuses on automotive route choice behaviour...... and Link Nested Logit. Estimates were produced from model specifications that considered level-of-service, label and facility dummy variables. Moreover, a modelling framework was designed to represent drivers’ choices as affected by the latent constructs extracted with factor analysis. Previous experience...

  6. Veterans Choice Program

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — If you are already enrolled in VA health care, the Choice Program allows you to receive health care within your community. Using this program does NOT impact your...

  7. Consumer choice behaviour

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, Flemming; Percy, Larry; Hallum Hansen, Morten

    2004-01-01

    The paper is concerned with the measurement of emotions and the study of the role of emotions in consumer choice. Contemporary neurological findings suggest that emotions may play a role in its own right, quite different from the way in which they have been considered in traditional consumer choice behaviour theory. A large-scale study including 800 respondents, covering 64 brands, provide findings on emotional response tendencies for the brands, and relate these to involvement...

  8. Consumer choice behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Flemming; Percy, Larry; Hallum Hansen, Morten

    2004-01-01

    The paper is concerned with the measurement of emotions and the study of the role ofemotions in consumer choice. Contemporary neurological findings suggest that emotionsmay play a role in its own right, quite different from the way in which they have beenconsidered in traditional consumer choice...... behaviour theory. A large-scale study including800 respondents, covering 64 brands, provide findings on emotional response tendenciesfor the brands, and relate these to involvement, type of need gratification, purchasingbehaviour, etc....

  9. Prenatal screening, reproductive choice, and public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    One widely held view of prenatal screening (PNS) is that its foremost aim is, or should be, to enable reproductive choice; this is the Pure Choice view. The article critiques this position by comparing it with an alternative: Public Health Pluralism. It is argued that there are good reasons to prefer the latter, including the following. (1) Public Health Pluralism does not, as is often supposed, render PNS more vulnerable to eugenics-objections. (2) The Pure Choice view, if followed through to its logical conclusions, may have unpalatable implications, such as extending choice well beyond health screening. (3) Any sensible version of Public Health Pluralism will be capable of taking on board the moral seriousness of abortion and will advocate, where practicable, alternative means of reducing the prevalence of disease and disability. (4) Public Health Pluralism is at least as well-equipped as the Pure Choice model to deal with autonomy and consent issues. PMID:25521971

  10. Latent variables and route choice behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo; Bekhor, Shlomo; Pronello, Cristina

    2012-01-01

    by proposing and estimating a hybrid model that integrates latent variable and route choice models. Data contain information about latent variable indicators and chosen routes of travelers driving regularly from home to work in an urban network. Choice sets include alternative routes generated with a branch...... and bound algorithm. A hybrid model consists of measurement equations, which relate latent variables to measurement indicators and utilities to choice indicators, and structural equations, which link travelers’ observable characteristics to latent variables and explanatory variables to utilities. Estimation...... results illustrate that considering latent variables (i.e., memory, habit, familiarity, spatial ability, time saving skills) alongside traditional variables (e.g., travel time, distance, congestion level) enriches the comprehension of route choice behavior....

  11. 跨期选择单维占优模型的过程检验%A process test of priority models of intertemporal choice

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    江程铭; 刘洪志; 蔡晓红; 李纾

    2016-01-01

    Intertemporal choice is vital to human survival and development, hence the interest of scientists today in analyzing how it is made. Mainstream theories hold that a discounting process serves as basis for making choices, but other theories forego this process. For example, priority models, such as the tradeoff model and equate-to-differentiate theory, show that individuals tend to compare the difference between dimensions of delay and outcome before deciding in a single dimension when selecting between a smaller, sooner outcome (SS) and a larger, later outcome (LL). To tackle this question and improve our knowledge of the mechanisms underlying human decision making, concrete evidence based on psychological process is required. In the current study, we tested priority models by using a process-oriented method. A total of 822 college students participated in the study; 238 participated in Experiment 1A, 194 in Experiment 1B, 97 in Experiment 1C, and 293 in Experiment 2. In Experiment 1A, we manipulated the differences of two alternatives (i.e., SS and LL) in terms of monetary outcome (in Problem 1) and delay (in Problem 2). We then asked participants to indicate their preference between SS and LL and to compare the difference on the delay dimension with that on the outcome dimension (we called this process “difference- comparing process”). The aim of Experiment 1A was to examine whether one’s preference was mediated by the difference-comparing process. For Experiment 1B, we altered the procedure used in Experiment 1A (i.e., participants were first asked to conduct the difference-comparing process then indicate their preference) because we wanted to ensure that the difference-comparing process is the online process of selecting rather than the artifact of the experimental procedure. In Experiment 1C, we asked participants to indicate their preference and conduct the difference-comparing process at separate occasions. The aim of Experiment 1C was to address the

  12. Fitting observed and theoretical choices - women's choices about prenatal diagnosis of Down syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seror, Valerie

    2008-05-01

    Choices regarding prenatal diagnosis of Down syndrome - the most frequent chromosomal defect - are particularly relevant to decision analysis, since women's decisions are based on the assessment of their risk of carrying a child with Down syndrome, and involve tradeoffs (giving birth to an affected child vs procedure-related miscarriage). The aim of this study, based on face-to-face interviews with 78 women aged 25-35 with prior experience of pregnancy, was to compare the women' expressed choices towards prenatal diagnosis with those derived from theoretical models of choice (expected utility theory, rank-dependent theory, and cumulative prospect theory). The main finding obtained in this study was that the cumulative prospect model fitted the observed choices best: both subjective transformation of probabilities and loss aversion, which are basic features of the cumulative prospect model, have to be taken into account to make the observed choices consistent with the theoretical ones. PMID:17806133

  13. Choice of initial therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Battegay

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Current international and national treatment guidelines such as EACS, BHIVA, DHHS or IAS update regularly recommendations on the choice of initial combination antiretroviral treatment (cART regimens. Preferred cART regimens include a backbone with two nucleoside (nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors combined either with one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor or one ritonavir boosted protease inhibitor or more recently one integrase inhibitor. Response rates according to viral load measurements increased in recent years, in particular due to better tolerability. The choice of initial therapy is flexible and influenced by several factors such as height of viral load, genotypic resistance testing, CD4 cell count, co-morbidities, interactions, potential adverse events, (potential for pregnancy, convenience, adherence, costs as well as physician's and patient's preferences. Diverse highly potent initial cART regimens exist. Following the many possibilities, the choice of a regimen is based on a mixture of evidence-informed data and individualized concepts, some of the latter only partly supported by strong evidence. For example, different perceptions and personal experiences exist about boosted protease inhibitors compared to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors or integrase inhibitors and vice versa which may influence the initial choice. This lecture will discuss choices of initial cART in view of international guidelines and the evidence for individualization of initial HIV therapy.

  14. Choosing health, constrained choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chee Khoon Chan

    2009-12-01

    In parallel with the neo-liberal retrenchment of the welfarist state, an increasing emphasis on the responsibility of individuals in managing their own affairs and their well-being has been evident. In the health arena for instance, this was a major theme permeating the UK government's White Paper Choosing Health: Making Healthy Choices Easier (2004), which appealed to an ethos of autonomy and self-actualization through activity and consumption which merited esteem. As a counterpoint to this growing trend of informed responsibilization, constrained choices (constrained agency) provides a useful framework for a judicious balance and sense of proportion between an individual behavioural focus and a focus on societal, systemic, and structural determinants of health and well-being. Constrained choices is also a conceptual bridge between responsibilization and population health which could be further developed within an integrative biosocial perspective one might refer to as the social ecology of health and disease.

  15. Measuring improved patient choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes-Rovner, M; Rovner, D R

    2000-08-01

    Patient decision support (PDS) tools or decision aids have been developed as adjuncts to the clinical encounter. Their aim is to support evidence-based patient choice. Clinical trials of PDS tools have used an array of outcome measures to determine efficacy, including knowledge, satisfaction, health status and consistency between patient choice and values. This paper proposes that the correlation between 'subjective expected utility' (SEU) and decision may be the best primary endpoint for trials. SEU is a measure usually used in behavioural decision theory. The paper first describes how decision support tools may use decision analysis to structure the presentation of evidence and guide patient decision-making. Uses of expected utility (EU) are suggested for evaluating PDS tools when improving population health status is the objective. SEU is the theoretically better measure when internal consistency of patient choices is the objective. PMID:11083037

  16. Complex Strategic Choices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leleur, Steen

    . Complex Strategic Choices provides clear principles and methods which can guide and support strategic decision making to face the many current challenges. By considering ways in which planning practices can be renewed and exploring the possibilities for acquiring awareness and tools to add value...... and students in the field of planning and decision analysis as well as practitioners dealing with strategic analysis and decision making. More broadly, Complex Strategic Choices acts as guide for professionals and students involved in complex planning tasks across several fields such as business...... to strategic decision making, Complex Strategic Choices presents a methodology which is further illustrated by a number of case studies and example applications. Dr. Techn. Steen Leleur has adapted previously established research based on feedback and input from various conferences, journals and students...

  17. Electoral system, pesonal votes, and party choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Søren Risbjerg

    Using local elections in Denmark as an example this paper shows that individual party choice is influenced both by individual level, municipality level, and national level characteristics. Some hypotheses about the effects of the electoral system on personal votes derived from a theory by Carey...... & Shugart (1995) are first tested using a fixed-effects model. The effect of the personal reputation of the candidates, measured by personal votes, on party choice is then tested using a multilevel multinomial logit model suggested by Rabe-Hesketh and Skrondal (2008). The paper shows that both the electoral...... system and the personal reputation of local candidates have theoretically expected effects on party choice at local elections in Denmark. The methodology can be used for cross-national studies of multilevel effects on multi-party choice....

  18. 基于Agent的居民就医选择建模与仿真%Agent-based Modeling and Simulation Research into Residents Healthcare Choice

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    程贲; 李兴兵; 鲁延京; 谭跃进

    2009-01-01

    基于Agent建模仿真是医疗服务领域中问题研究和政策分析的一种新方法.在分析目前医疗领域中居民就医选择现状的基础上,基于Agent的建模方法,对医疗系统中的主要对象--医院、社区医疗服务机构、居民的行为进行了建模,开发了基于Anylogic的居民就医选择的仿真原型,研究了居民的就医选择问题,分析扩大不同医疗机构的费用差距及增加区域内社区医疗服务机构数量两项政策对居民就医选择的影响.实验结果说明通过调节医院与社区诊所的医疗服务的价格比,能够影响居民就医选择,但增加医院的医疗服务的价格会造成部分低收入居民无法就医;区域内社区诊所与医院的比例在2~4倍时,对降低居民无法就医的比例是有效的.%Agent-based modeling and simulation is a new methodology in the field of healthcare service research and relevant policy analysis. Applying agent-based modeling and simulation methodology, we research the problem of residents' healthcare selection and construct health service models for hospitals, residents and communities. Applying the simulation tool -AnyLogic, we analyze the effects of two policies on residents' health care choice, which involve enlarging the price gap of different healthcare institutions and increasing the number of healthcare service agencies in communities within a region. The experiment result illustrates that changing the cost ratio of hospital and community service has a significant impact on residents' selection decision, while the rising of the price of healthcare service makes residents with low income unable to afford the expense of healthcare service, and that the proper ratio of the number of community health service agencies to that of hospitals within a certain region is 2 to 4.

  19. Salience and Consumer Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Bordalo, Pedro; Gennaioli, Nicola; Shleifer, Andrei

    2012-01-01

    We present a theory of context-dependent choice in which a consumer's attention is drawn to salient attributes of goods, such as quality or price. An attribute is salient for a good when it stands out among the good's characteristics, in the precise sense of being furthest away in that good from its average level in the choice set (or more generally, an evoked set). A local thinker chooses among goods by attaching disproportionately high weights to their salient attributes. When goods are cha...

  20. A quantum delayed choice experiment

    CERN Document Server

    Peruzzo, Alberto; Brunner, Nicolas; Popescu, Sandu; O'Brien, Jeremy L

    2012-01-01

    Quantum systems exhibit particle-like or wave-like behaviour depending on the experimental apparatus they are confronted by. This wave-particle duality is at the heart of quantum mechanics, and is fully captured in Wheeler's famous delayed choice gedanken experiment. In this variant of the double slit experiment, the observer chooses to test either the particle or wave nature of a photon after it has passed through the slits. Here we report on a quantum delayed choice experiment, based on a quantum controlled beam-splitter, in which both particle and wave behaviours can be investigated simultaneously. The genuinely quantum nature of the photon's behaviour is tested via a Bell inequality, which here replaces the delayed choice of the observer. We observe strong Bell inequality violations, thus showing that no model in which the photon knows in advance what type of experiment it will be confronted by, hence behaving either as a particle or as wave, can account for the experimental data.

  1. The National Interest, Westminster, and Public Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Johnson, R.W.M.

    1994-01-01

    There has been increasing scrutiny of government policy decisions and advice in recent years. The supremacy of the national interest has been questioned and self interest theories explored. Administrative systems have been reformed, and the role of the Westminster model of government decision-making endlessly reviewed. Increased interest by economists in the policy process has created a new subject area in economics, namely, public choice theory. It places greater emphasis on individual choic...

  2. Transition choice probabilities and welfare in ARUM's

    OpenAIRE

    de Palma, André; Kilani, Karim

    2009-01-01

    We study the descriptive and the normative consequences of price and/or other attributes changes in additive random utility models. We first derive expressions for the transition choice probabilities associated to these changes. A closed-form formula is obtained for the logit. We then use these expressions to compute the cumulative distribution functions of the compensating variation conditional on ex-ante and/or ex-post choices. The unconditional distribution is also provided. The conditiona...

  3. 基于结构方程模型的通勤交通方式选择%Commute Traffic Mode Choice Based on Structural Equation Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    严海; 王熙蕊; 梁文博; 孔令鹏

    2015-01-01

    基于以往出行方式选择的相关研究中,大部分是基于个体属性对于方式选择的影响,而针对各类出行者特性与出行方式特征的关联性分析较少的情况,以拥有小汽车的中长距离通勤者为研究对象,提取相关的个体属性参数和交通方式特性参数构建结构方程模型,分析其个体属性与公交和小汽车出行特征之间的相互影响,从而探索各因素之间的关系以及对公交出行意愿的影响方向与程度。研究结果表明:个体的经济水平会对方式选择产生根本性的影响,更短的停车后步行时间、低廉的停车费用或充足的停车设施泊位供给会鼓励出行者选择自驾出行,而减少公交等车换乘时间,提高公交运行时速则会增强公交的吸引力,这对于城市中心区制定引导居民公交出行对策有一定借鉴意义。%Previous traffic mode researches are mainly based on the influences of individual characteristics to the traffic mode choice, and researches on the correlation analysis of different kinds of individual specialties and different traffic mode features are very limited. Taking the medium and long distance commuters as subjects, a structural equation model was built in this paper by extracting selective parameters of individual specialty and traffic mode features. Meanwhile, interactions between the individual specialties and the traffic mode features of public transportation or self-driving were analyzed, and then the direction and degree of all effective factors and the public transportation willingness were captured. Results show that individual economic level has essential effect on the traffic mode choice. Less walking time after parking, lower parking fee and abundant parking spaces encourage people to commute by car. However, the public transportation attraction increases by reducing the waiting and transfer time, and improving the running speed. This paper has

  4. Mate-choice copying as Bayesian decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uehara, Takashi; Yokomizo, Hiroyuki; Iwasa, Yo

    2005-03-01

    Mate-choice copying by females has been reported in fishes (e.g., guppies) and lekking birds. Presumably, females assess males' quality using both information from direct observation of males and information acquired by observing other females' choices. Here, we study mathematically the conditions under which mate-choice copying is advantageous on the basis of Bayesian decision theory. A female may observe the mate choice of another female, called the model female, who has performed an optimal choice based on her own judgment. The conditions required for the focal female to choose the same mate as that chosen by the model female should depend on the male's appearance to her, the reliability of her own judgment of male quality, and the reliability of the model females. When three or more females are involved, the optimal mate choice critically depends on whether multiple model females make decisions independently or they themselves copy the choices of others. If two equally reliable females choose different males, the choice of the second female, made knowing the choice of the first, should have a stronger effect on the choice of the third (focal) female. This "last-choice precedence" should be tested experimentally.

  5. Angelina′s choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nishu Singh Goel

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This is an opinion piece on how a celebrity′s personal choice to undergo prophylactic mastectomy on discovery of an aberrant gene, when publicly promoted, carries in itself the power to influence and impact healthcare trends and decisions. When celebrities advocate causes that are universally and uniformly acceptable and indisputable as the best in the realm of healthcare and cure (e.g. no smoking, it creates well-being and awareness in society at large. But those which are personal choices made out of a repertoire of other available and effective options may, because of celebrity preference, don the mantle of a norm. They thus run the danger of being blindly replicated by others without proper awareness and knowledge of the true potential of disease, risk factors, and other existing remedial or risk-reducing measures. Society should thus be encouraged to question, debate, and understand the validity, authenticity, and reason of the choices, especially those with a medical basis. This tempering of information with intelligence and rationale and making informed choices based on facts will serve humanity as a whole.

  6. Children's Choice for 2001.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reading Teacher, 2001

    2001-01-01

    Presents a 25-item annotated bibliography for beginning readers, 30 items for young readers, 19 items for intermediate readers, and 24 items for advanced readers--all selected by children. Gives tips for parents, primary caregivers, and educators. Describes the Children's Choice project and book selection. (SG)

  7. Children's Choices for 2003.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reading Teacher, 2003

    2003-01-01

    Presents 103 titles for the 2003 Children's Choice grouped by reading levels: beginning, young, intermediate, and advanced readers. Provides the title, author, illustrator, publisher, ISBN, and price for each title as well as a brief annotation prepared by a review team. (SG)

  8. Single-basined choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bossert, W.; Peters, H.J.M.

    2013-01-01

    Single-basined preferences generalize single-dipped preferences by allowing for multiple worst elements. These preferences have played an important role in areas such as voting, strategy-proofness and matching problems. We examine the notion of single-basinedness in a choice-theoretic setting. In co

  9. Tough and easy choices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Søren Bøye; Lundhede, Thomas; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl;

    2011-01-01

    sets increases. In addition, stated certainty increases with income. Furthermore, there is some evidence that male respondents are inherently more certain in their choices than females, and a learning effect may increase stated certainty. We find evidence of this in the first study where the good...

  10. The Choice for Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Scott

    2006-01-01

    We are building conventional library space without making the paradigm shift our digital environment requires. The chief obstacles to change lie in our conception of readers as information consumers, in our allegiance to library operations as the drivers of library design, and in the choice made between foundational and non-foundational views of…

  11. Comparison and Analysis of Route Choice Models under Uncertain Road Network Condition%不确定路网条件下出行路径选择模型对比分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王燕; 张丽

    2011-01-01

    对出行路径选择模型作了简要解析,进而分别基于"期望效用理论"和"前景理论",建立不确定路网条件下的出行者出行路径选择模型,并结合实际算例及实证调查,对基于两种理论模型得出的结果做出对比分析,结果表明"前景理论"的研究思路更适合描述风险状况以及不确定条件下的个人出行决策行为.%With the national transportation scholars' further researches on the travel route choice, theoretical models are developed based on expected utility theory and prospect theory respectively.In the paper, the authors firstly give a brief analysis about the route choice models, and then establish the travel route choice models under uncertainty based on the expected utility theory and prospect theory respectively.With practical examples and empirical investigation, comparative analysis about the results based on the two theoretical models is conducted.And the shortcomings of the former are pointed out.The result obtained show that the latter one, the search idea of prospect theory is more appropriate to describing the personal travel decision behavior under the risk situation and uncertainty.

  12. Determining the Effects of Pre-College STEM Contexts on STEM Major Choices in 4-Year Postsecondary Institutions Using Multilevel Structural Equation Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ahlam

    2013-01-01

    Many STEM studies have focused on traditional learning contexts, such as math- and science-related learning factors, as pre-college learning predictors for STEM major choices in colleges. Few studies have considered a progressive learning activity embedded within STEM contexts. This study chose computer-based learning activities in K-12 math…

  13. Dynamic Choice Behavior in a Natural Experiment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten;

    the income that they bring to the game show. Allowing for this integration of income and game show prizes leads to choice behavior consistent with constant relative risk aversion. Third, we examine th e effects of allowing contestants to make choices characterized by non-standard decision models. We find...... linked to current choices. We have four major findings. First, we show that popular utility functions that assume constant relative or absolute risk aversion and expected utility theory defined over the prizes cannot characterize these choices, which exhibit increasing relative risk aversion over prizes...... ranging from a penny to nearly half a million U.S. dollars. Second, the argument of the utility function under expected utility theory reflects the integration of game show prizes with regular income. These decision makers do not segregate the income from the lotteries they face on the game show from...

  14. Combining and Comparing Consumers' Stated Preference Ratings and Choice Responses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Conlon, B.J.; Dellaert, B.G.C.; van Soest, A.H.O.

    2000-01-01

    In this study we develop and test an econometric model for combining choice and preference ratings data collected from the same set of individuals.Choice data are modeled using a multinomial logit framework, while preference data are modeled using an ordered response equation.Individual heterogeneit

  15. SU-D-9A-02: Relative Effects of Threshold Choice and Spatial Resolution Modeling On SUV and Volume Quantification in F18-FDG PET Imaging of Anal Cancer Patients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, F [Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Shandong Cancer Hospital and Insititute, Jinan, Shandong (China); Bowsher, J; Palta, M; Czito, B; Willett, C; Yin, F [Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States)

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: PET imaging with F18-FDG is utilized for treatment planning, treatment assessment, and prognosis. A region of interest (ROI) encompassing the tumor may be determined on the PET image, often by a threshold T on the PET standard uptake values (SUVs). Several studies have shown prognostic value for relevant ROI properties including maximum SUV value (SUVmax), metabolic tumor volume (MTV), and total glycolytic activity (TGA). The choice of threshold T may affect mean SUV value (SUVmean), MTV, and TGA. Recently spatial resolution modeling (SRM) has been introduced on many PET systems. SRM may also affect these ROI properties. The purpose of this work is to investigate the relative influence of SRM and threshold choice T on SUVmean, MTV, TGA, and SUVmax. Methods: For 9 anal cancer patients, 18F-FDG PET scans were performed prior to treatment. PET images were reconstructed by 2 iterations of Ordered Subsets Expectation Maximization (OSEM), with and without SRM. ROI contours were generated by 5 different SUV threshold values T: 2.5, 3.0, 30%, 40%, and 50% of SUVmax. Paired-samples t tests were used to compare SUVmean, MTV, and TGA (a) for SRM on versus off and (b) between each pair of threshold values T. SUVmax was also compared for SRM on versus off. Results: For almost all (57/60) comparisons of 2 different threshold values, SUVmean, MTV, and TGA showed statistically significant variation. For comparison of SRM on versus off, there were no statistically significant changes in SUVmax and TGA, but there were statistically significant changes in MTV for T=2.5 and T=3.0 and in SUVmean for all T. Conclusion: The near-universal statistical significance of threshold choice T suggests that, regarding harmonization across sites, threshold choice may be a greater concern than choice of SRM. However, broader study is warranted, e.g. other iterations of OSEM should be considered.

  16. Empirical social choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kurrild-Klitgaard, Peter

    2014-01-01

    The year 2012 was the 30th anniversary of William H. Riker’s modern classic Liberalism against populism (1982) and is marked by the present special issue. In this introduction, we seek to identify some core elements and evaluate the current status of the Rikerian research program and its empirical...... applications. Special attention is given to three phenomena and their possible empirical manifestations: The instability of social choice in the form of (1) the possibility of majority cycles, (2) the non-robustness of social choices given alternative voting methods, and (3) the possibility of various forms...... of manipulation of the decisions (heresthetics). These topics are then connected to the contributions to the current special issue....

  17. Fuzzy social choice theory

    CERN Document Server

    B Gibilisco, Michael; E Albert, Karen; N Mordeson, John; J Wierman, Mark; D Clark, Terry

    2014-01-01

    This book offers a comprehensive analysis of the social choice literature and shows, by applying fuzzy sets, how the use of fuzzy preferences, rather than that of strict ones, may affect the social choice theorems. To do this, the book explores the presupposition of rationality within the fuzzy framework and shows that the two conditions for rationality, completeness and transitivity, do exist with fuzzy preferences. Specifically, this book examines: the conditions under which a maximal set exists; the Arrow’s theorem;  the Gibbard-Satterthwaite theorem; and the median voter theorem.  After showing that a non-empty maximal set does exists for fuzzy preference relations, this book goes on to demonstrating the existence of a fuzzy aggregation rule satisfying all five Arrowian conditions, including non-dictatorship. While the Gibbard-Satterthwaite theorem only considers individual fuzzy preferences, this work shows that both individuals and groups can choose alternatives to various degrees, resulting in a so...

  18. Complex Strategic Choices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leleur, Steen

    . Complex Strategic Choices provides clear principles and methods which can guide and support strategic decision making to face the many current challenges. By considering ways in which planning practices can be renewed and exploring the possibilities for acquiring awareness and tools to add value...... resulting in new material stemming from and focusing on practical application of a systemic approach. The outcome is a coherent and flexible approach named systemic planning. The inclusion of both the theoretical and practical aspects of systemic planning makes this book a key resource for researchers...... and students in the field of planning and decision analysis as well as practitioners dealing with strategic analysis and decision making. More broadly, Complex Strategic Choices acts as guide for professionals and students involved in complex planning tasks across several fields such as business...

  19. The acetylcholinesterase inhibitor rivastigmine does not alter total choices for methamphetamine, but may reduce positive subjective effects, in a laboratory model of intravenous self-administration in human volunteers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De La Garza, R; Mahoney, J J; Culbertson, C; Shoptaw, S; Newton, T F

    2008-04-01

    A human laboratory model of intravenous methamphetamine self-administration may facilitate study of putative treatments for methamphetamine addiction. We conducted a double-blind, placebo-controlled, between groups investigation of the acetylcholinesterase (AChE) inhibitor rivastigmine in non-treatment-seeking volunteers who met criteria for methamphetamine abuse or dependence. Safety and subjective effects data derived from days 1-10 of this protocol are described in a separate publication. In this report, we describe self-administration outcomes in participants randomized to treatment with rivastigmine (0 mg, N=7; 1.5 mg, N=6; 3 mg, N=9); data that were collected on days 11-15 of the inpatient protocol. On day 11, participants sampled two infusions of methamphetamine (0 and 30 mg, i.v.). On days 12-15, participants made ten choices each day to receive an infusion of either methamphetamine (3 mg, IV) or saline or a monetary alternative ($0.05-$16). The study design allowed for evaluation of differences in behavior on days in which infusions were performed by the physician (experimenter-administered) versus by the participant using a PCA pump (self-administered), and when monetary alternatives were presented in either ascending or descending sequence. The data show that rivastigmine (1.5 and 3 mg), as compared to placebo, did not significantly alter total choices for methamphetamine (p=0.150). Importantly, the number of infusion choices was greater when methamphetamine was available then when saline was available (pmoney choices was greater when saline was available then when methamphetamine was available (pmoney was available in an ascending versus descending sequence (p=0.49). The participants' years of methamphetamine use, recent use of methamphetamine (in the past 30 days), or baseline craving (indexed here as "Desire") on the day of the self-administration task were not predictive of number of choices for methamphetamine. In a subset of participants (N=8) for

  20. The impact of choice context on consumers' choice heuristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mueller Loose, Simone; Scholderer, Joachim; Corsi, Armando M.;

    2012-01-01

    Context effects in choice settings have received recent attention but little is known about the impact of context on choice consistency and the extent to which consumers apply choice heuristics. The sequence of alternatives in a choice set is examined here as one specific context effect. We compa...... how a change from a typical price order to a sensory order in wine menus affects consumer choice. We use pre-specified latent heuristic classes to analyse the existence of different choice processes, which begins to untangle the ‘black box’ of how consumers choose. Our findings indicate...... that in the absence of price order, consumers are less price-sensitive, pay more attention to visually salient cues, are less consistent in their choices and employ other simple choice heuristics more frequently than price. Implications for consumer research, marketing and consumer policy are discussed....

  1. Mate choice on leks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balmford, A

    1991-03-01

    In lek-breeding animals, males defend tiny territories clustered into arenas, where females come to mate. Typically, most lek males secure relatively few copulations while a small number are highly successful. Recent studies suggest that the skewed distribution of matings seen at leks may be the result of females using a variety of criteria to select particular mating partners. Nevertheless, the possible benefits to females of mate choice at leks, where males offer neither resources nor paternal care, remain obscure.

  2. Experimentation and Job Choice

    OpenAIRE

    2012-01-01

    In this article, we examine optimal job choices when jobs differ in the rate at which they reveal information about workers' skills. We then analyze how the optimal level of experimentation changes over a worker's career and characterize job transitions and wage growth over the life cycle. Using the Dictionary of Occupational Titles merged with the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, we then construct an index of how much information different occupations reveal about workers' skills ...

  3. Topological social choice

    CERN Document Server

    1997-01-01

    The origins of this volume can be traced back to a conference on "Ethics, Economic and Business" organized by Columbia Busi­ ness School in March of 1993, and held in the splendid facilities of Columbia's Casa Italiana. Preliminary versions of several of the papers were presented at that meeting. In July 1994 the Fields Institute of Mathematical Sciences sponsored a workshop on "Geometry, Topology and Markets": additional papers and more refined versions of the original papers were presented there. They were published in their present versions in Social Choice and Wel­ fare, volume 14, number 2, 1997. The common aim of these workshops and this volume is to crystallize research in an area which has emerged rapidly in the last fifteen years, the area of topological approaches to social choice and the theory of games. The area is attracting increasing interest from social choice theorists, game theorists, mathematical econ­ omists and mathematicians, yet there is no authoritative collection of papers in the a...

  4. The choice that disappeared

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjerris, Mickey; Saxe, Henrik

    2013-01-01

    This article criticise the notion that ethical consumerism can solve the ethical issues related to sustainability and food production through an analysis of the complexity of the concept of sustainability as related to food choices. The current trend of leaving the political discussion and regula......This article criticise the notion that ethical consumerism can solve the ethical issues related to sustainability and food production through an analysis of the complexity of the concept of sustainability as related to food choices. The current trend of leaving the political discussion...... and regulation of the food area to the political consumer is shown to be problematic as shopping for sustainability might be much harder than initially believed due to the conflicting considerations entailed in the concept. Thus political consumerism may give way to fatalism as the complexity of choices become...... apparent and acts of citizenship increasingly are reduced to ethical consumerism supposed to be performed while shopping. The suggested solution is to let food policies be decided to a much higher degree through the political process engaging humans as citizens rather than consumers in the process....

  5. Social determinants of food choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, R

    1999-11-01

    Food choice is influenced by a large number of factors, including social and cultural factors. One method for trying to understand the impact of these factors is through the study of attitudes. Research is described which utilizes social psychological attitude models of attitude-behaviour relationships, in particular the Theory of Planned Behaviour. This approach has shown good prediction of behaviour, but there are a number of possible extensions to this basic model which might improve its utility. One such extension is the inclusion of measures of moral concern, which have been found to be important both for the choice of genetically-modified foods and also for foods to be eaten by others. It has been found to be difficult to effect dietary change, and there are a number of insights from social psychology which might address this difficulty. One is the phenomenon of optimistic bias, where individuals believe themselves to be at less risk from various hazards than the average person. This effect has been demonstrated for nutritional risks, and this might lead individuals to take less note of health education messages. Another concern is that individuals do not always have clear-cut attitudes, but rather can be ambivalent about food and about healthy eating. It is important, therefore, to have measures for this ambivalence, and an understanding of how it might impact on behaviour.

  6. Social determinants of food choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, R

    1999-11-01

    Food choice is influenced by a large number of factors, including social and cultural factors. One method for trying to understand the impact of these factors is through the study of attitudes. Research is described which utilizes social psychological attitude models of attitude-behaviour relationships, in particular the Theory of Planned Behaviour. This approach has shown good prediction of behaviour, but there are a number of possible extensions to this basic model which might improve its utility. One such extension is the inclusion of measures of moral concern, which have been found to be important both for the choice of genetically-modified foods and also for foods to be eaten by others. It has been found to be difficult to effect dietary change, and there are a number of insights from social psychology which might address this difficulty. One is the phenomenon of optimistic bias, where individuals believe themselves to be at less risk from various hazards than the average person. This effect has been demonstrated for nutritional risks, and this might lead individuals to take less note of health education messages. Another concern is that individuals do not always have clear-cut attitudes, but rather can be ambivalent about food and about healthy eating. It is important, therefore, to have measures for this ambivalence, and an understanding of how it might impact on behaviour. PMID:10817147

  7. Model izbora motocikla za potrebe saobraćajne podrške vojske / Model of motorcycle choice for traffic support needs in the military of Serbia and Montenegro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Predrag Stamenković

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Motocikli koji se koriste u jedinicama za regulisanje i kontrolu saobraćaja u Vojsci treba da imaju takve tehničko-eksploatacione karakteristike koje će u toku eksploatacionog perioda u potpunosti zadovoljiti stroge zahteve regulisanja i kontrole vojnog putnog saobraćaja i poboljšati kvalitet saobraćajne podrške u suvremenim borbenim dejstvima. Pri optimalnom izboru motocikla važno je razmatrati karakteristike motocikla i zahteve koje treba da ispuni. U radu je prikazan model izbora motocikala primenom metode višekriterijumskog rangiranja Promethee. / Motorcycles used in traffic direct and control units in the Military of Serbia and Montenegro should have such technical and operational characteristics that -will completely meet strict demands for directing and controlling military traffic and that -will improve the quality of traffic support in modern combat conditions. It is important to discuss characteristics of a motorcycle and demands it has to meet -when choosing "optimal" motorcycle model. This paper shows model of motorcycle choice using Promethee method of multiple ranging criteria.

  8. Occupational Choice and Student Values

    Science.gov (United States)

    McSweeney, R. V.

    1973-01-01

    Article attempts to set out a way of measuring determination, the element capable of making students' occupational choice' a reality not just an ideal, by exploration of the part played by the value system in relation to occupational choice. (Author)

  9. Channel Choice: A Literature Review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard Madsen, Christian; Kræmmergaard, Pernille

    2015-01-01

    The channel choice branch of e-government studies citizens’ and businesses’ choice of channels for interacting with government, and how government organizations can integrate channels and migrate users towards the most cost-efficient channels. In spite of the valuable contributions offered no sys...... no systematic overview exist of channel choice. We present a literature review of channel choice studies in government to citizen context identifying authors, countries, methods, concepts, units of analysis, and theories, and offer suggestionsfor future studies....

  10. Research on Online Shopping Choice Behavior Based on Nested Logit Model%基于巢式Logit模型的网上购物选择行为研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蔡敏; 商滔

    2015-01-01

    基于Gumbel分布和多项Logit模型,提出建立顾客网上购物选择行为的巢式Logit模型,在SERVQUAL五维量表的基础上,设计了影响顾客购物选择行为的18个相关因素,同时将顾客购买行为分成共性部分和差异部分,采用极大似然法求解模型参数. 相比传统模型而言,巢式Logit模型具有更好的解释能力和稳定性,通过实例分析演示了模型的应用方法,为网上店铺优化服务质量提供了具体参考.%The nested Logit model of online shopping choice behavior is proposed based on Gumbel distribution and multinomial Logit model,and 18 related factors which affect customer's choice behavior are designed on the basis of five dimensional SERVQUAL scale.The shopping behavior is divided into common part and different part,maximum likelihood is used to solve the model parameters.Comparing to the traditional model,nested Logit model has better explanatory power and stability,through case study,the application of this model is demonstrated,which provide specific reference to optimize the quality of service for online stores.

  11. Efficiency of Choice Set Generation Methods for Bicycle Routes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halldórsdóttir, Katrín; Rieser-Schüssler, Nadine; W. Axhausen, Kay;

    With a growing interest in sustainable transport systems, the interest has increased on encouraging more cycling. To encourage cycling, it is important to identify which network attributes influence cyclists route choice and evaluate the trade-offs among these attributes. To analyse travel...... behaviour, observed choices and alternatives composing the choice set of each cyclist are necessary. However, generating the alternative choice sets can prove challenging. This paper analyses the efficiency of various choice set generation methods for bicycle routes in order to contribute to our...... that might produce inconsistent estimates. There have been some studies on bicycle route choice set generation reported in the literature, whereof few studies focussed on route choice models for bicyclist estimated from GPS observations. Menghini et al. [3] successfully applied a Breadth First Search on Link...

  12. Computational mate choice: theory and empirical evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellano, Sergio; Cadeddu, Giorgia; Cermelli, Paolo

    2012-06-01

    The present review is based on the thesis that mate choice results from information-processing mechanisms governed by computational rules and that, to understand how females choose their mates, we should identify which are the sources of information and how they are used to make decisions. We describe mate choice as a three-step computational process and for each step we present theories and review empirical evidence. The first step is a perceptual process. It describes the acquisition of evidence, that is, how females use multiple cues and signals to assign an attractiveness value to prospective mates (the preference function hypothesis). The second step is a decisional process. It describes the construction of the decision variable (DV), which integrates evidence (private information by direct assessment), priors (public information), and value (perceived utility) of prospective mates into a quantity that is used by a decision rule (DR) to produce a choice. We make the assumption that females are optimal Bayesian decision makers and we derive a formal model of DV that can explain the effects of preference functions, mate copying, social context, and females' state and condition on the patterns of mate choice. The third step of mating decision is a deliberative process that depends on the DRs. We identify two main categories of DRs (absolute and comparative rules), and review the normative models of mate sampling tactics associated to them. We highlight the limits of the normative approach and present a class of computational models (sequential-sampling models) that are based on the assumption that DVs accumulate noisy evidence over time until a decision threshold is reached. These models force us to rethink the dichotomy between comparative and absolute decision rules, between discrimination and recognition, and even between rational and irrational choice. Since they have a robust biological basis, we think they may represent a useful theoretical tool for

  13. Computational mate choice: theory and empirical evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellano, Sergio; Cadeddu, Giorgia; Cermelli, Paolo

    2012-06-01

    The present review is based on the thesis that mate choice results from information-processing mechanisms governed by computational rules and that, to understand how females choose their mates, we should identify which are the sources of information and how they are used to make decisions. We describe mate choice as a three-step computational process and for each step we present theories and review empirical evidence. The first step is a perceptual process. It describes the acquisition of evidence, that is, how females use multiple cues and signals to assign an attractiveness value to prospective mates (the preference function hypothesis). The second step is a decisional process. It describes the construction of the decision variable (DV), which integrates evidence (private information by direct assessment), priors (public information), and value (perceived utility) of prospective mates into a quantity that is used by a decision rule (DR) to produce a choice. We make the assumption that females are optimal Bayesian decision makers and we derive a formal model of DV that can explain the effects of preference functions, mate copying, social context, and females' state and condition on the patterns of mate choice. The third step of mating decision is a deliberative process that depends on the DRs. We identify two main categories of DRs (absolute and comparative rules), and review the normative models of mate sampling tactics associated to them. We highlight the limits of the normative approach and present a class of computational models (sequential-sampling models) that are based on the assumption that DVs accumulate noisy evidence over time until a decision threshold is reached. These models force us to rethink the dichotomy between comparative and absolute decision rules, between discrimination and recognition, and even between rational and irrational choice. Since they have a robust biological basis, we think they may represent a useful theoretical tool for

  14. Evoked Emotions Predict Food Choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dalenberg, J.R.; Gutjar, S.; Horst, ter G.J.; Graaf, de C.; Renken, R.; Jager, G.

    2014-01-01

    In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Th

  15. Sequential rationalization of multivalued choice

    OpenAIRE

    García Sanz, María Dolores; Rodríguez Alcantud, José Carlos

    2015-01-01

    [EN]This paper contributes to the theory of rational choice under sequential criteria. Following the approach initiated by Manzini and Mariotti (2007) for single-valued choice functions, we characterize choice correspondences that are rational by two sequential criteria under a mild consistency axiom. Rationales ensuring the sequential rationalization are explicitly constructed and a uniquely determined, canonical solution is provided.

  16. Making Healthy Choices Easier

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guldborg Hansen, Pelle; Skov, Laurits Rohden; Lund Skov, Katrine

    2016-01-01

    . However, integration and testing of the nudge approach as part of more comprehensive public health strategies aimed at making healthy choices easier is being threatened by inadequate understandings of its scientific character, relationship with regulation and its ethical implications. This article reviews...... this character and its ethical implication with a special emphasis on the compatibility of nudging with traditional regulation, special domains of experience, and the need for a more nuanced approach to the ethical debate. The aim is to advance readers understanding and give guidance to those who consider...

  17. Overconfidence and Career Choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulz, Jonathan F; Thöni, Christian

    2016-01-01

    People self-assess their relative ability when making career choices. Thus, confidence in their own abilities is likely an important factor for selection into various career paths. In a sample of 711 first-year students we examine whether there are systematic differences in confidence levels across fields of study. We find that our experimental confidence measures significantly vary between fields of study: While students in business related academic disciplines (Political Science, Law, Economics, and Business Administration) exhibit the highest confidence levels, students of Humanities range at the other end of the scale. This may have important implications for subsequent earnings and professions students select themselves in.

  18. Making Healthy Choices Easier

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Pelle Guldborg; Skov, Laurits Rohden; Skov, Katrine Lund

    2016-01-01

    this character and its ethical implication with a special emphasis on the compatibility of nudging with traditional regulation, special domains of experience, and the need for a more nuanced approach to the ethical debate. The aim is to advance readers understanding and give guidance to those who consider....... However, integration and testing of the nudge approach as part of more comprehensive public health strategies aimed at making healthy choices easier is being threatened by inadequate understandings of its scientific character, relationship with regulation and its ethical implications. This article reviews...

  19. Response latencies in the analysis of conjoint choice experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haaijer, R; Kamakura, W; Wedel, M

    2000-01-01

    Response latencies provide information about consumers' choice behavior in a conjoint choice experiment. The authors use filtered response latencies to scale the covariance matrix of a multinomial probit model and show that this leads to better model fit and holdout predictions, even if the response

  20. Destination choice behavior modeling based on space-time prism method%基于时空棱柱方法的目的地选择行为建模

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴文静; 隽志才; 孙宝凤

    2012-01-01

    Based on the space-time prism method,the traveller activity space was limited in a definite space-time prism,the accessibility of activity zone in space was defined under time constraints according to the activity plan of the traveller.A 2-step modeling strategy was proposed for the destination choice behavior.An attracting ratio of the zone was introduced,and a destination choice behavior model with a non-liner utility function was built,and the quantification process,the parameter calibration and the result check of the zone attracting ratio were discussed.The results showed that the destination choice set can be defined by the time-space constraints of the travel in combination with the GPS technology.The non-linear utility function with the zone attracting ratio can predict the destination choice behavior more accurately.The conbination of the theory and the real behavior of the traveller provides a new idea for modeling of the destination choice behavior.%基于时空棱柱方法,将人的活动区域限制在一定的时空棱柱体内,根据出行者的活动计划,确定在一定时间限制下活动场所在空间上的可达性。提出了目的地选择行为分层的建模策略。引入小区吸引力因子,构建了非线性效用函数的目的地选择行为模型,探讨了小区吸引力因子的量化过程、参数标定及结果检验。结果表明:结合出行的时空约束和地理信息系统(Geographic information system,GIS)分析能够确定出行者的目的地选择集合。具有小区吸引力因子的非线性效用函数能够更准确地预测目的地选择行为。本文研究将出行理论与出行者的实际行为相结合,为目的地选择行为的建模提供了一种新思路。

  1. 基于浮动车数据的随机路径选择模型参数估计%Parameter Estimation of Stochastic Route Choice Model with Floating Car Data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李军; 赵长相; 唐晓宇; 谢良惠

    2014-01-01

    This study proposes an algorithm to estimate the parameter of Logit route choice model in urban road network with multinomial OD pairs utilizing taxi-floating car data. The relative route impedance is used and the Logit diversion parameter for whole network can be described by one unified dimensionless parameter. The discrete route choice probabilities are converted to continuous form with consideration of the weight of the numbers of trips, and a cumulative function relationship between route choice probability and relative impedance is re-derived from the original Logit route choice model. The least squares method is utilized to estimate of the unified parameter. The numerical example from taxi GPS data of Guangzhou shows that the goodness fit is excellent and the proposed algorithm is effective and convenient to model the route choice behavior with available and massive floating car data.%提出利用浮动车出行数据对城市路网多OD对logit随机路径选择模型参数估计方法。首先采用相对阻抗,实现logit模型参数无量纲化和单一化,将离散多项logit模型转化为相对阻抗的连续概率模型;然后对多OD对的浮动车数据进行分区和权重处理,计算得到概率分布;最后在推导连续型概率密度和累积概率函数基础上,利用最小二乘法进行参数估计。以广州市浮动车数据对方法进行验证,结果拟合优度高,所得参数可有效反映实际路径选择行为。方法简单实用,特别适用于利用海量浮动车数据进行路径选择行为分析。

  2. Time, Self & Intertemporal Choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cintia eRetz Lucci

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Neuroscientific studies of intertemporal choice (IC have focused mainly on the neural representation of self-control mechanisms and valuation. This reflects what has been considered as the core of the IC phenomenon. The claim of this paper is that deviations from exponential reward discounting as a function of time might be fully accounted for by the deviation of subjective time from calendar time. This claim is based on evidence that specificities of time perception can modulate discounting. Consequently, time perception is fundamental to IC and it is crucial to understand the mechanisms underlying time processing in different situations; to investigate when human time perception differs from time as represented by the calendar metric system; and to study how time perception predicts choices. This paper surveys the recent literature on time perception in order to discuss the measuring of IC through time-perception specificities. The notion of self is also discussed within this temporal perspective. If time perception modulates discounting, and time perception is related to self, the relationship between self and time perception becomes a new path to be explored in the IC studies.

  3. Current issues in the analysis of consumer food choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunert, Klaus G.

    2001-01-01

    The Total Food Quality Model is used as a framework for highlighting a number of issues of current concern in understanding consumer food choice, and where promising avenues for research are seen. Consumer food choice is seen as a process where consumers form expectations about product quality be...... a stronger role. In addition, everyday routines in information processing and decision-making may change under situations of crisis.......The Total Food Quality Model is used as a framework for highlighting a number of issues of current concern in understanding consumer food choice, and where promising avenues for research are seen. Consumer food choice is seen as a process where consumers form expectations about product quality...... before or during purchase, and then have a quality experience after the purchase. However, an increasing role of credence characteristics in food choice assigns communication a stronger role in understanding food choice, and consumer concern for food production technologies gives prior attitudes...

  4. Empirical Study and Modeling of Variable Message Signs on Route Choice Behavior%VMS对驾驶员路径选择影响的实证研究与建模

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王卫卫; 赵小梅; 李新刚; 谢东繁

    2013-01-01

    Variable message signs (VMS) frequently influence driver' s route choice behavior through providing instantaneous traffic information.It is one of the most important components of intelligent transportation system (ITS),and an efficient method to release traffic congestion.To quantitatively analyze the effects of VMS on drivers' route choice,this study makes the SP survey on drivers that have more than one year driving experience.Then,the data are analyzed by SPSS20.0,and the ordinal classification Logit models are used to reflect the route choice behavior.Finally,the conclusion is presented:route choice behavior according to VMS is highly related to driving style,travel time and accuracy of VMS.%可变信息板(VMS)通过发布实时的道路交通信息引导驾驶员的路径选择行为,是智能交通系统的重要组成部分之一,也是大城市缓解交通拥堵所采取的方法之一.为了定量分析VMS对驾驶员路径选择行为所产生的影响,本文采用SP调查法针对驾龄在1年以上的驾驶员进行问卷调查,使用SPSS20.0软件对调查数据进行分析,并在此基础上建立VMS诱导条件下驾驶员改变路径频率的有序多分类Logit模型,得出结论,驾驶员根据VMS所提供信息进行路径选择的主要影响因素为驾驶风格、出行时间、VMS可信度.

  5. Prediction of Citizens’ Decisions on Transport Mode Choice in Bandung City, Indonesia by Using General Linear Model Given existing Level of Pedestrian Friendly Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ariva Sugandi Permana

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available 800x600 Significant contribution of non-motorized transport to energy and environment has changed the view of people on walking or cycling as one of transport modes. While promoting mass rapid transport, modern cities tend to promote pedestrianization as well to encourage people to walk instead of relying on motorized transport. Creating pedestrian friendly environment in particular parts of the city, especially in CBD, is one such attempt. This study tries to investigate the correlation between perceptions of the citizens on pedestrian friendly environment (PFE and their decision on the choices of transport modes. The central business district of Bandung City in Indonesia was chosen as the study area. A questionnaire-based research was used to acquire data on citizens’ perception. Eight variables were employed to understand citizens’ perception on PFE. The result shows that PFE does influence citizens’ decision on their transport modes choice. Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4

  6. Analysis and Modeling of Park and Ride Choice Behavior in Commuting Travel%通勤出行中停车换乘选择行为分析与建模

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    云美萍; 刘贤玮; 陈震寰; 杨晓光

    2012-01-01

    针对通勤出行研究驾车者的停车换乘选择行为,选取上海市典型停车换乘站对驾车通勤者与公共交通通勤者进行了RP(revealed preference)调查与SP(stated preference)调查,基于调查数据分析了选择停车换乘与否的影响因素,并针对道路交通通畅、堵塞2种状态分别建立了是否停车换乘的二项Logit模型.模型结果显示低收入的年轻人更倾向于选择停车换乘;交通状态堵塞时是否有老人或小孩等家庭特征显著影响停车换乘选择行为;模型还揭示了通畅时通勤者更关注出行费用,而堵塞时通勤者更关注出行时耗和舒适性,并分析了时间和费用敏感度对停车换乘选择概率的影响及其差异.%This paper focuses on travelers' choice behavior of park and ride or driving alone in commuting trips. Revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) surveys of car drivers' and public passengers' mode choice behaviors are performed in typical park of ride (PR) transfer station in Shanghai. Based on survey data, influencing factors of PR choice are analyzed. Two individual binary logit models are established under smooth traffic state and congested state respectively on whether car drivers will park and transfer to metro. Model results show that young commuters with lower income are more likely to choose PR. Whether a household has elders or children influences PR choice significantly under congested traffic. The results also indicate that commuters put more attention on travel cost when traffic is fluent. However, they care more about time consumption and comfortableness when traffic is congested. Furthermore, the influence of time and cost sensitivity on PR choice behavior is presented.

  7. Classifying pedestrian shopping behaviour according to implied heuristic choice rules

    OpenAIRE

    Shigeyuki Kurose; Aloys W J Borgers; Timmermans, Harry J. P.

    2001-01-01

    Our aim in this paper is to build and test a model which classifies and identifies pedestrian shopping behaviour in a shopping centre by using temporal and spatial choice heuristics. In particular, the temporal local-distance-minimising, total-distance-minimising, and global-distance-minimising heuristic choice rules and spatial nearest-destination-oriented, farthest-destination-oriented, and intermediate-destination-oriented choice rules are combined to classify and identify the stop sequenc...

  8. Location choice with longitudinal WiFi data

    OpenAIRE

    Danalet, Antonin; Tinguely, Loïc; de Lapparent, Matthieu; Bierlaire, Michel

    2015-01-01

    While moving from diary survey to location-aware technologies, recent data collection techniques provide new insights about location choices. Only few dynamic models of location choice exist in the literature, and none of them to our knowledge correct for serial correlation. In this paper, we apply a method proposed by Wooldridge (2005) to deal with the initial values problem on the choice of catering locations on a campus using WiFi traces. Cross-validation, price elasticity and simulation o...

  9. Explaining Choice and Share of Category Requirements of Biologic Meat

    OpenAIRE

    Verhoef, Peter; Vlagsma-Brangule, Kristine

    2003-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we examine factors determining choice and consumption of biologic or organic meat. In our model explaining choice and share of category requirements, we consider economic/marketing variables (quality, price, and distribution), emotions (fear, empathy, andguilt), social norms, environmental variables (environmental concern, green behavior, and perceived consumer effectiveness) as main antecedents of the choice and share of categoryrequirements of bio-meat. We also con...

  10. Understanding Adolescent Contraceptive Choice: An Empirical Test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, Nancy E.; And Others

    Research using expectancy models has shown contraceptive choice among adults to be a rational process in that intentions and behaviors reflect an individual's beliefs, values, attitudes, and perceptions of social norms. This study examined whether such an approach could accurately represent adolescents' contraceptive decision-making. It used the…

  11. Educational "Choice" (Vouchers) and Social Mobility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manski, Charles F.

    1992-01-01

    Uses a model of student and school behavior to simulate effects of differing voucher amounts on students in different income categories, drawing on two major assumptions concerning service delivery and competition. Poor youngsters would not be better off under voucher system. Even under highly favorable conditions, a systemic choice system would…

  12. Biofuels: making tough choices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vermeulen, Sonja; Dufey, Annie; Vorley, Bill

    2008-02-15

    The jury is still out on biofuels. But one thing at least is certain: serious trade-offs are involved in the production and use of these biomass-derived alternatives to fossil fuels. This has not been lost on the European Union. The year kicked off with an announcement from the EU environment commissioner that it may be better for the EU to miss its target of reaching 10 per cent biofuel content in road fuels by 2020 than to compromise the environment and human wellbeing. The 'decision tree' outlined here can guide the interdependent processes of deliberation and analysis needed for making tough choices in national biofuels development.

  13. A Common Mechanism Underlying Food Choice and Social Decisions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian Krajbich

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others' benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making.

  14. Pairomics, the omics way to mate choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dani, Sergio Ulhoa; März, Winfried; Neves, Paulo Mauricio Serrano; Walter, Gerhard Franz

    2013-10-01

    The core aspects of the biology and evolution of sexual reproduction are reviewed with a focus on the diploid, sexually reproducing, outbreeding, polymorphic, unspecialized, altricial and cultural human species. Human mate choice and pair bonding are viewed as central to individuals' lives and to the evolution of the species, and genetic assistance in reproduction is viewed as a universal human right. Pairomics is defined as an emerging branch of the omics science devoted to the study of mate choice at the genomic level and its consequences for present and future generations. In pairomics, comprehensive genetic information of individual genomes is stored in a database. Computational tools are employed to analyze the mating schemes and rules that govern mating among the members of the database. Mating models and algorithms simulate the outcomes of mating any given genome with each of a number of genomes represented in the database. The analyses and simulations may help to understand mating schemes and their outcomes, and also contribute a new cue to the multicued schemes of mate choice. The scientific, medical, evolutionary, ethical, legal and social implications of pairomics are far reaching. The use of genetic information as a search tool in mate choice may influence our health, lifestyle, behavior and culture. As knowledge on genomics, population genetics and gene-environment interactions, as well as the size of genomic databases expand, so does the ability of pairomics to investigate and predict the consequences of mate choice for the present and future generations.

  15. Sequential sampling and paradoxes of risky choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatia, Sudeep

    2014-10-01

    The common-ratio, common-consequence, reflection, and event-splitting effects are some of the best-known findings in decision-making research. They represent robust violations of expected utility theory, and together form a benchmark against which descriptive theories of risky choice are tested. These effects are not currently predicted by sequential sampling models of risky choice, such as decision field theory (Busemeyer & Townsend 1993). This paper, however, shows that a minor extension to decision field theory, which allows for stochastic error in event sampling, can provide a parsimonious, cognitively plausible explanation for these effects. Moreover, these effects are guaranteed to emerge for a large range of parameter values, including best-fit parameters obtained from preexisting choice data. PMID:24898202

  16. Anxiety and Search during Food Choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Torben; Uth Thomsen, Thyra; Mukherjee, Ashkesh

    2011-01-01

    Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the effect of anxiety on information search during food choice and to test a key moderator of the effect of anxiety on search, namely attitude towards nutritional claims. Design/methodology/approach – By means of qualitative study the paper investigates...... the notion that consumers experience anxiety about health outcomes during food choice. Further, by means of structural equation modelling based on two studies with representative samples of Danish consumers, the paper investigates the effects outlined above. Findings – The authors show that anxiety during...... food choice increases information search in four product categories – ready dinner meals, salad dressing, biscuits, and cakes. Further, the results show that the positive effect of anxiety on information search is stronger when consumers have a less favourable attitude towards nutritional claims...

  17. Does the number of choice sets matter? Results from a web survey applying a discrete choice experiment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bech, Mickael; Kjær, Trine; Lauridsen, Jørgen Trankjær

    2011-01-01

    Optimising the design of discrete choice experiments (DCE) involves maximising not only the statistical efficiency, but also how the nature and complexity of the experiment itself affects model parameters and variance. The present paper contributes by investigating the impact of the number of DCE...... results suggest that respondents are capable of managing multiple choice sets – in this case 17 choice sets – without problems...

  18. 基于时间剩余的随机后悔最小化路径选择%Route Choice Behaviour Based on Time Surplus Random Regret-minimization Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李梦甜; 纪翔峰; 张健; 冉斌

    2014-01-01

    出行者路径选择行为的正确性直接影响到交通规划“四阶段”模型最后一步交通分配的可靠性,对交通规划领域具有重要意义。近年来,为了克服出行者路径选择主要理论(随机效用最大化模型)存在的问题,Chorus提出了随机后悔最小化模型。本文借用经济学领域中的无差异曲线概念,建立基于时间剩余的出行时间和出行费用双重约束下的随机后悔最小化模型,并对模型中存在的路径重叠和路径感知方差问题进行改进。最后运用示例性路网进行数值检验。结果显示,改进模型更加合理,具有更好的可靠性。%The last step of conventional four-stage transport planning model, traffic assignment, is mainly based on the results of modeling the route choice behaviour of travellers. In order to overcome the drawbacks for the majority of travel choice model, random utility-maximization model, Chorus presented an alternative named random regret-minimization model. This paper proposes a dual-constrained random regret model rooted in the economic theory of indifference curve. Considering the case of overlapping and route perception variance, an improved formulation is provided, and the proposed model is tested in sample networks. Numerical results demonstrate the validity of the formulations.

  19. Evoked Emotions Predict Food Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Dalenberg, Jelle R.; Swetlana Gutjar; ter Horst, Gert J.; Kees de Graaf; Renken, Remco J.; Gerry Jager

    2014-01-01

    In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Therefore, the focus within recent studies shifted towards using emotion-profiling methods that successfully can discriminate between products that are equally liked. However, it is unclear how well ...

  20. The construction of optimal stated choice experiments theory and methods

    CERN Document Server

    Street, Deborah J

    2007-01-01

    The most comprehensive and applied discussion of stated choice experiment constructions available The Construction of Optimal Stated Choice Experiments provides an accessible introduction to the construction methods needed to create the best possible designs for use in modeling decision-making. Many aspects of the design of a generic stated choice experiment are independent of its area of application, and until now there has been no single book describing these constructions. This book begins with a brief description of the various areas where stated choice experiments are applicable, including marketing and health economics, transportation, environmental resource economics, and public welfare analysis. The authors focus on recent research results on the construction of optimal and near-optimal choice experiments and conclude with guidelines and insight on how to properly implement these results. Features of the book include: Construction of generic stated choice experiments for the estimation of main effects...

  1. Consumer behaviour analysis and consumer brand choice.

    OpenAIRE

    Foxall, G.R.; Oliveira-Castro, J.M.; James, V.K.; Schrezenmaier, T.C.

    2007-01-01

    This is the SECOND of TWO linked articles on consumer behavioural analysis dealing with the Behavioural Perspective Model, which locates consumer behaviour at the intersection of the consumer’s learning history and the consumer situation. As an example of research inspired by the Model, this article presents investigations into consumers’ patterns of brand choice, showing how brand repertoires are formed and how brands are selected within those repertoires.

  2. Proving the Viability of a School Choice Voucher. Policy Brief

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haller, Scott

    2015-01-01

    A recent Pioneer Institute report written by Ken Ardon and Cara Stilling Candal, "Modeling Urban Scholarship Vouchers in Massachusetts," explores the viability of a school choice voucher program in the Commonwealth. Nationally, school choice has been shown to improve parent satisfaction and student achievement, reduce racial segregation,…

  3. Explaining Choice and Share of Category Requirements of Biologic Meat

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.C. Verhoef (Peter); K. Vlagsma-Brangule (Kristine)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we examine factors determining choice and consumption of biologic or organic meat. In our model explaining choice and share of category requirements, we consider economic/marketing variables (quality, price, and distribution), emotions (fear, empathy, andguilt), social norm

  4. Probability and rational choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Botting

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper I will discuss the rationality of reasoning about the future. There are two things that we might like to know about the future: which hypotheses are true and what will happen next. To put it in philosophical language, I aim to show that there are methods by which inferring to a generalization (selecting a hypothesis and inferring to the next instance (singular predictive inference can be shown to be normative and the method itself shown to be rational, where this is due in part to being based on evidence (although not in the same way and in part on a prior rational choice. I will also argue that these two inferences have been confused, being distinct not only conceptually (as nobody disputes but also in their results (the value given to the probability of the hypothesis being not in general that given to the next instance and that methods that are adequate for one are not by themselves adequate for the other. A number of debates over method founder on this confusion and do not show what the debaters think they show.

  5. Revenue Management Model for High-Speed Railway Based on Traveler Choice%基于旅客选择的高速铁路客运收益管理研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张力; 蓝伯雄

    2012-01-01

    本文旨在探讨收益管理在高速铁路客运中的应用,给出了存在多级票价时,考虑旅客选择行为的铁路客运收益管理模型,优化结果能够同时给出发车指令和座位出售限制.利用模拟数据对模型进行了数值试验,表明在不同路段长度下,考虑旅客选择行为的总收益较需求独立模型均有所提高,且随着票价等级增多而增长.%This paper deals with the application of revenue management to high-speed railway industry. We present a railway passenger revenue management model considering traveler choice behavior in case of multi-fare. The result gives the booking limits of each fare class and train scheduling as well. Numerical experiments on simulation data show that total revenue of the choice model is higher than those of independent demand, and surges with the increase of fare classes.

  6. "If you have the flu symptoms, your asymptomatic spouse may better answer the willingness-to-pay question". Evidence from a double-bounded dichotomous choice model with heterogeneous anchoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarzinger, Michaël; Carrat, Fabrice; Luchini, Stéphane

    2009-07-01

    The small sample size of contingent valuation (CV) surveys conducted in patients may have limited the use of the single-bounded (SB) dichotomous choice format which is recommended in environmental economics. In this paper, we explore two ways to increase the statistical efficiency of the SB format: (1) by the inclusion of proxies in addition to patients; (2) by the addition of a follow-up dichotomous question, i.e. the double-bounded (DB) dichotomous choice format. We found that patients (n=223) and spouses (n=64) answering on behalf of the patient had on average a similar willingness-to-pay for earlier alleviation of flu symptoms. However, a patient was significantly more likely to anchor his/her answer on the first bid as compared to a spouse. Finally, our original DB model with shift effect and heterogeneous anchoring reconciled the discrepancies found in willingness-to-pay statistics between SB and DB models in keeping with increased statistical efficiency. PMID:19362383

  7. Tri-level model of traffic mode choice in regional transportation corridors%区域运输通道交通方式选择3层模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘强; 陆化普; 王庆云

    2011-01-01

    为实现区域运输通道内交通方式的合理配置,建立基于用户最优的通道内交通方式选择3层Nested Logit模型.模型采用分层的建模思想,运用不确定规划理论和随机效用理论,从概率的角度研究了通道内交通方式的选择问题.以京沪通道客运方式选择为例,并以京沪磁浮客流预测调查数据为基础,同时辅以一定量的交通调查,进行数据校合和模型参数的标定,验证了模型的合理性.该模型可克服多项Logit模型的ⅡA缺陷,对解决区域通道内各种运输方式的结构配置问题具有较好的辅助决策支持.%A tri-level Nested Logit choice model was developed to optimize regional transportation corridors al-location.From the perspective of users and by applying hierarchical ideas,uncertain programming theory and random utility theory,the traffic mode choice in corridors was discussed.Taking Beijing-Shanghai transporta-tion corridor for instance,the model parameters were calibrated by using the Beijing-Shanghai maglev transit passenger forecast survey and other supplementary traffic survey data,and the rationality of the model was vali-dated.Results show that the model could overcome the defects of Multinomial Logit Model and be a promising approach to improve the structure configuration of transportation modes in regional transportation corridors.

  8. Optimal Portfolio Choice with Annuitization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koijen, R.S.J.; Nijman, T.E.; Werker, B.J.M.

    2006-01-01

    We study the optimal consumption and portfolio choice problem over an individual's life-cycle taking into account annuity risk at retirement. Optimally, the investor allocates wealth at retirement to nominal, inflation-linked, and variable annuities and conditions this choice on the state of the eco

  9. Perception bias in route choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vreeswijk, J.D.; Thomas, T.; Berkum, van E.C.; Arem, van B.

    2014-01-01

    Travel time is probably one of the most studied attributes in route choice. Recently, perception of travel time received more attention as several studies have shown its importance in explaining route choice behavior. In particular, travel time estimates by travelers appear to be biased against non-

  10. Diabetes and diet: food choices.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Niewind, A.C.

    1989-01-01

    This thesis reports on the food choices of diabetic patients. Two studies were undertaken considering the barriers these patients experience with the diabetic diet. Furthermore, the changes in food choices during the first years after the diagnosis of insulin-dependent diabetes as well as patients,

  11. College Choice in the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Christine Joy

    2009-01-01

    This descriptive and correlational study examined the applicability of major U.S. college choice factors to Philippine high school seniors. A sample of 226 students from a private school in Manila completed the College Choice Survey for High School Seniors. Cronbach's alpha for the survey composite index was 0.933. The purposes of this…

  12. Educational Choice. A Background Paper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quality Education for Minorities Network, Washington, DC.

    This paper addresses school choice, one proposal to address parental involvement concerns, focusing on historical background, definitions, rationale for advocating choice, implementation strategies, and implications for minorities and low-income families. In the past, transfer payment programs such as tuition tax credits and vouchers were…

  13. School Choice in South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maile, Simeon

    2004-01-01

    In this article, the author investigates the basic elements of choice and markets theory. In recent years, children were moving from rural and township schools to suburban White schools. This trend emerged in the late 1980s and simmered after the demise of apartheid. At face value, school choice appears to be happening merely for the reason of…

  14. Computer simulation of Wheeler's delayed-choice experiment with photons

    OpenAIRE

    Zhao, S; Yuan, S; De Raedt, H.; Michielsen, K.

    2008-01-01

    We present a computer simulation model of Wheeler's delayed-choice experiment that is a one-to-one copy of an experiment reported recently (Jacques V. et al., Science, 315 (2007) 966). The model is solely based on experimental facts, satisfies Einstein's criterion of local causality and does not rely on any concept of quantum theory. Nevertheless, the simulation model reproduces the averages as obtained from the quantum-theoretical description of Wheeler's delayed-choice experiment. Our resul...

  15. Performing a Choice-Narrative

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holmegaard, Henriette Tolstrup

    2015-01-01

    Students’ science choices have long attracted attention in both public and research. Recently there has been a call for qualitative studies to explore how choices create a sense of fit for individual students. Therefore, this paper aims to study how science students’ choices of higher education...... demonstrates how cultural discourses about how a proper choice is made set the scene for the students’ choices. The study raises some concerns for science education. Improving students’ interests in science alone might not lead to increased admission as several interests equally intervene. To attract more...... students to science, we must consider how to actively engage them in crafting their own education, as a way to support them in making personal sense....

  16. Shared decision making, paternalism and patient choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandman, Lars; Munthe, Christian

    2010-03-01

    In patient centred care, shared decision making is a central feature and widely referred to as a norm for patient centred medical consultation. However, it is far from clear how to distinguish SDM from standard models and ideals for medical decision making, such as paternalism and patient choice, and e.g., whether paternalism and patient choice can involve a greater degree of the sort of sharing involved in SDM and still retain their essential features. In the article, different versions of SDM are explored, versions compatible with paternalism and patient choice as well as versions that go beyond these traditional decision making models. Whenever SDM is discussed or introduced it is of importance to be clear over which of these different versions are being pursued, since they connect to basic values and ideals of health care in different ways. It is further argued that we have reason to pursue versions of SDM involving, what is called, a high level dynamics in medical decision-making. This leaves four alternative models to choose between depending on how we balance between the values of patient best interest, patient autonomy, and an effective decision in terms of patient compliance or adherence: Shared Rational Deliberative Patient Choice, Shared Rational Deliberative Paternalism, Shared Rational Deliberative Joint Decision, and Professionally Driven Best Interest Compromise. In relation to these models it is argued that we ideally should use the Shared Rational Deliberative Joint Decision model. However, when the patient and professional fail to reach consensus we will have reason to pursue the Professionally Driven Best Interest Compromise model since this will best harmonise between the different values at stake: patient best interest, patient autonomy, patient adherence and a continued care relationship.

  17. Stochastic Dynamic User Optimum Model with Departure Time Choice Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory%基于累积前景理论的出发时间选择SDUO模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张波; 隽志才; 林徐勋

    2013-01-01

    The existing dynamic traffic assignment models that deal with departure time choice generally construct utility or disutility functions based on the concepts of time-window and schedule delay. Travelers are assumed to be entirely rational and have full access to the information of dynamic traffic system. The reference points and the difference between arrival times within time-window are not considered in our assumption. There are often systematical deviations between traffic assignment results and real traffic (low. Traffic system is an uncertain dynamic system characterized as time-varying and stochastic. Constrained by the compound effect of imperfect traffic information, limited cognitive capability, value orientations and the degree of rationality, travelers are rarely able to perform their travel decisions with entire rationality. Researches of psychology and behavior science demonstrate that decisions under uncertainty appear to be bounded rational. As a descriptive theory, the Prospect Theory reveals psychological and behavioral mechanisms of people with bounded rationality, and demonstrates the patterns and human decision-making characteristics under risk. A few empirical studies experimenting on travelers have shown that travel behaviors under uncertainty, especially in the choices of departure time and route, and their attitude towards risk coincide with the main assumptions of Prospect Theory. Focused oncommuting trips during peak hours in the morning, this paper explores the usefulness of Prospect Theory in the dynamic traffic assignment. First, commuters are classified into early arrivals and late arrivals according to when they arrive at their workplace. The reference points for departure time and route choices are defined in a dynamic stochastic traffic network. The continuous functions of Prospect Theory for departure time and route choices in the condition of continuous traffic flow are constructed. A Stochastic Dynamic User Optimum (SDUO) model

  18. Commitment-based action: Rational choice theory and contrapreferential choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radovanović Bojana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on Sen’s concept of contrapreferential choice. Sen has developed this concept in order to overcome weaknesses of the rational choice theory. According to rational choice theory a decision-maker can be always seen as someone who maximises utility, and each choice he makes as the one that brings to him the highest level of personal wellbeing. Sen argues that in some situations we chose alternatives that bring us lower level of wellbeing than we could achieve if we had chosen some other alternative available to us. This happens when we base our decisions on moral principles, when we act out of duty. Sen calls such action a commitment-based action. When we act out of commitment we actually neglect our preferences and thus we make a contrapreferential choice, as Sen argues. This paper shows that, contrary to Sen, a commitment-based action can be explained within the framework of rational choice theory. However, when each choice we make can be explained within the framework of rational choice theory, when in everything we do maximisation principle can be loaded, then the variety of our motives and traits is lost, and the explanatory power of the rational choice theory is questionable. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 47009: Evropske integracije i društveno-ekonomske promene privrede Srbije na putu ka EU i br. 179015: Izazovi i perspektive strukturnih promena u Srbiji: Strateški pravci ekonomskog razvoja i usklađivanje sa zahtevima EU

  19. Ternary choices in repeated games and border collision bifurcations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► We extend a model of binary choices with externalities to include more alternatives. ► Introducing one more option affects the complexity of the dynamics. ► We find bifurcation structures which where impossible to observe in binary choices. ► A ternary choice cannot simply be considered as a binary choice plus one. - Abstract: Several recent contributions formalize and analyze binary choices games with externalities as those described by Schelling. Nevertheless, in the real world choices are not always binary, and players have often to decide among more than two alternatives. These kinds of interactions are examined in game theory where, starting from the well known rock-paper-scissor game, several other kinds of strategic interactions involving more than two choices are examined. In this paper we investigate how the dynamics evolve introducing one more option in binary choice games with externalities. The dynamics we obtain are always in a stable regime, that is, the structurally stable dynamics are only attracting cycles, but of any possible positive integer as period. We show that, depending on the structure of the game, the dynamics can be quite different from those existing when considering binary choices. The bifurcation structure, due to border collisions, is explained, showing the existence of so-called big-bang bifurcation points.

  20. Suboptimal Choice in Pigeons: Stimulus Value Predicts Choice over Frequencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Alexandria R.; Chow, Jonathan J.; Beckmann, Joshua S.; Zentall, Thomas R.

    2016-01-01

    Pigeons have shown suboptimal gambling-like behavior when preferring a stimulus that infrequently signals reliable reinforcement over alternatives that provide greater reinforcement overall. As a mechanism for this behavior, recent research proposed that the stimulus value of alternatives with more reliable signals for reinforcement will be preferred relatively independently of their frequencies. The present study tested this hypothesis using a simplified design of a Discriminative alternative that, 50% of the time, led to either a signal for 100% reinforcement or a blackout period indicative of 0% reinforcement against a Nondiscriminative alternative that always led to a signal that predicted 50% reinforcement. Pigeons showed a strong preference for the Discriminative alternative that remained despite reducing the frequency of the signal for reinforcement in subsequent phases to 25% and then 12.5%. In Experiment 2, using the original design of Experiment 1, the stimulus following choice of the Nondiscriminative alternative was increased to 75% and then to 100%. Results showed that preference for the Discriminative alternative decreased only when the signals for reinforcement for the two alternatives predicted the same probability of reinforcement. The ability of several models to predict this behavior are discussed, but the terminal link stimulus value offers the most parsimonious account of this suboptimal behavior. PMID:27441394