WorldWideScience

Sample records for choice models

  1. Model choice versus model criticism

    OpenAIRE

    Robert, Christian P.; Mengersen, Kerrie; Chen, Carla

    2009-01-01

    The new perspectives on ABC and Bayesian model criticisms presented in Ratmann et al.(2009) are challenging standard approaches to Bayesian model choice. We discuss here some issues arising from the authors' approach, including prior influence, model assessment and criticism, and the meaning of error in ABC.

  2. Choice of pesticide fate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The choice of a pesticide fate model at field scale is linked to the available input data. The article describes the available pesticide fate models at a field scale and the guidelines for the choice of the suitable model as function of the data input requested

  3. Modelling Choice of Information Sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agha Faisal Habib Pathan

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the significance of traveller information sources including mono-modal and multimodal websites for travel decisions. The research follows a decision paradigm developed earlier, involving an information acquisition process for travel choices, and identifies the abstract characteristics of new information sources that deserve further investigation (e.g. by incorporating these in models and studying their significance in model estimation. A Stated Preference experiment is developed and the utility functions are formulated by expanding the travellers' choice set to include different combinations of sources of information. In order to study the underlying choice mechanisms, the resulting variables are examined in models based on different behavioural strategies, including utility maximisation and minimising the regret associated with the foregone alternatives. This research confirmed that RRM (Random Regret Minimisation Theory can fruitfully be used and can provide important insights for behavioural studies. The study also analyses the properties of travel planning websites and establishes a link between travel choices and the content, provenance, design, presence of advertisements, and presentation of information. The results indicate that travellers give particular credence to governmentowned sources and put more importance on their own previous experiences than on any other single source of information. Information from multimodal websites is more influential than that on train-only websites. This in turn is more influential than information from friends, while information from coachonly websites is the least influential. A website with less search time, specific information on users' own criteria, and real time information is regarded as most attractive

  4. A Probit Model of Choice Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Purushottam Papatla; Lakshman Krishnamurthi

    1992-01-01

    There are many products which are repeatedly purchased by consumers. In such cases it is likely that choice history, that is the sequence of choices made in the past, as well as marketing variables affect subsequent choice decisions. Attempts to model the effects of choice history have been generally based on the inclusion of variables that represent brand loyalty and/or variety seeking behavior. In this paper we present a model of dynamic choice behavior which is more general and incorporate...

  5. Process and Context in Choice Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben-Akiva, Moshe; Palma, André de; McFadden, Daniel;

    2012-01-01

    . The extended choice framework includes more behavioral richness through the explicit representation of the planning process preceding an action and its dynamics and the effects of context (family, friends, and market) on the process leading to a choice, as well as the inclusion of new types of subjective data...... in choice models. We discuss the key issues involved in applying the extended framework, focusing on richer data requirements, theories, and models, and present three partial demonstrations of the proposed framework. Future research challenges include the development of more comprehensive empirical tests...

  6. Consumer Vehicle Choice Model Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Changzheng [ORNL; Greene, David L [ORNL

    2012-08-01

    In response to the Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions standards, automobile manufacturers will need to adopt new technologies to improve the fuel economy of their vehicles and to reduce the overall GHG emissions of their fleets. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed the Optimization Model for reducing GHGs from Automobiles (OMEGA) to estimate the costs and benefits of meeting GHG emission standards through different technology packages. However, the model does not simulate the impact that increased technology costs will have on vehicle sales or on consumer surplus. As the model documentation states, “While OMEGA incorporates functions which generally minimize the cost of meeting a specified carbon dioxide (CO2) target, it is not an economic simulation model which adjusts vehicle sales in response to the cost of the technology added to each vehicle.” Changes in the mix of vehicles sold, caused by the costs and benefits of added fuel economy technologies, could make it easier or more difficult for manufacturers to meet fuel economy and emissions standards, and impacts on consumer surplus could raise the costs or augment the benefits of the standards. Because the OMEGA model does not presently estimate such impacts, the EPA is investigating the feasibility of developing an adjunct to the OMEGA model to make such estimates. This project is an effort to develop and test a candidate model. The project statement of work spells out the key functional requirements for the new model.

  7. A stated choice model of sequential mode and destination choice behaviour for shopping trips

    OpenAIRE

    Timmermans, HJP Harry

    1996-01-01

    Stated preference and choice models currently used in urban planning are focused on predicting single choices. In this paper the intention is to extend these modelling approaches to the case of sequential choice behaviour. Design strategies and model specifications that allow one to predict sequential choice are discussed. The approach is illustrated in a study of sequential mode and destination choice behaviour for shopping trips. The research findings suggest that the proposed approach may ...

  8. Essays on Discrete Choice Models

    OpenAIRE

    Kang, Joonmo

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation consists of three essays divided into chapters. In chapter 1, I analyze the identification of a simultaneous binary response model without nonadditive unobservable random terms, and suggest an estimation method. In particular, the derivatives of structural equations are identified and estimated. The identification relies on a special regressor, which enters the underlying structural equation linearly. All other exogenous variables held constant, variation on this special reg...

  9. Discrete Choice Models - Estimation of Passenger Traffic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Majken Vildrik

    2003-01-01

    This thesis gives an overview of what has been done in the research area of passenger transport modelling, with a focus on the model type in the core of a model complex. After a formulation of the choice problem (choice probability, the set alternatives), a method for estimation and requirements...... between model, data and estimation are described, with a focus of possibilities/limitations of different techniques. Two special issues of modelling are addressed in further detail, namely data segmentation and estimation of Mixed Logit models. Both issues are concerned with whether individuals can be...... assumed ’homogeneous’, that is, can be described by the same model (fixed coefficients). First, a new method for data segmentation is proposed, which segments data by individual preferences. Segmentation by individual preferences will diminish the severeness of the assumed homogeneity of individuals...

  10. Modeling Choice and Valuation in Decision Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loomes, Graham

    2010-01-01

    This article develops a parsimonious descriptive model of individual choice and valuation in the kinds of experiments that constitute a substantial part of the literature relating to decision making under risk and uncertainty. It suggests that many of the best known "regularities" observed in those experiments may arise from a tendency for…

  11. Computational methods for Bayesian model choice

    OpenAIRE

    Robert, Christian P.; Wraith, Darren

    2009-01-01

    In this note, we shortly survey some recent approaches on the approximation of the Bayes factor used in Bayesian hypothesis testing and in Bayesian model choice. In particular, we reassess importance sampling, harmonic mean sampling, and nested sampling from a unified perspective.

  12. ROUTE CHOICE MODELLING FOR BICYCLE TRIPS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ehsan Beheshtitabar

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper intends to find out which parameters have the highest influence on bicyclists’ route-choice-behaviour and how they contribute. There are many attributes considered throughout different studies that are favoured by cyclists. The attributes are the basis for generating a function which predicts the route choice of cyclists. The paper aims at making a comparison between distance-based routes and attribute-based routes. The model for creating the bicycle route choice program is based on the network model of Norrköping, Sweden. The preferred attributes of the model each assign a weight in the cost function of the model for each link of the urban network. The algorithm of the lowest cost function route searches the shortest path in terms of assigned link costs over the whole network. For comparing the results of the cost function and the shortest route (between an origin-destination, the model has a shortest path finding algorithm between different Origin and Destination pairs implemented. It has been viewed that around 25% of all cumulative routes do not show any distance differences between the shortest path distance and attributes based solution. With the used weights of the Standard scenario, it can be seen that the trade-off between shortest distance and safety respectively comfort can be optimized, fulfilling both criteria (distance and safety/comfort.

  13. Modeling Health Insurance Choice Using the Heterogeneous Logit Model

    OpenAIRE

    Keane, Michael

    2004-01-01

    Recent advances in "simulation based inference" have made it feasible to estimate discrete choice models with several alternatives and rich patterns of consumer taste heterogeneity. These new methods have important potential application in health economics. One important application is the analysis of consumer choice behavior in insurance markets characterized by competition among several alternative insurance plans. Analysis of consumer choice behavior in insurance markets is of great intere...

  14. Meta-analysis of choice set generation effects on route choice model estimates and predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    modeling, but require them to generate choice sets by selecting a path generation technique and its parameters according to personal judgments. This paper proposes a methodology and an experimental setting to provide general indications about objective judgments for an effective route choice set generation....... Initially, path generation techniques are implemented within a synthetic network to generate possible subjective choice sets considered by travelers. Next, ‘true model estimates’ and ‘postulated predicted routes’ are assumed from the simulation of a route choice model. Then, objective choice sets are...... applied for model estimation and results are compared to the ‘true model estimates’. Last, predictions from the simulation of models estimated with objective choice sets are compared to the ‘postulated predicted routes’. A meta-analytical approach allows synthesizing the effect of judgments for the...

  15. Model for understanding consumer textural food choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeltema, Melissa; Beckley, Jacqueline; Vahalik, Jennifer

    2015-05-01

    The current paradigm for developing products that will match the marketing messaging is flawed because the drivers of product choice and satisfaction based on texture are misunderstood. Qualitative research across 10 years has led to the thesis explored in this research that individuals have a preferred way to manipulate food in their mouths (i.e., mouth behavior) and that this behavior is a major driver of food choice, satisfaction, and the desire to repurchase. Texture, which is currently thought to be a major driver of product choice, is a secondary factor, and is important only in that it supports the primary driver-mouth behavior. A model for mouth behavior is proposed and the qualitative research supporting the identification of different mouth behaviors is presented. The development of a trademarked typing tool for characterizing mouth behavior is described along with quantitative substantiation of the tool's ability to group individuals by mouth behavior. The use of these four groups to understand textural preferences and the implications for a variety of areas including product design and weight management are explored. PMID:25987995

  16. Estimating Random Regret Minimization models in the route choice context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    -based stochastic user equilibrium. However, in the same context the RRM literature has not confronted three major challenges: (i) accounting for similarity across alternative routes, (ii) analyzing choice set composition effects on choice probabilities, and (iii) comparing the RRM model with advanced RUM...... counterparts. This paper looks into RRM-based route choice models from these three perspectives by (i) proposing utility-based and regret-based correction terms to account for similarity across alternatives, (ii) analyzing the variation of choice set probabilities with the choice set composition, and (iii......) comparing RRM-based route choice models with C-Logit, Path Size Logit and Paired Combinatorial Logit. Results illustrate the definition of RRM-based route choice models with correction terms within the regret function, show their lack of robustness with respect to the choice set composition, and present...

  17. The 2N-ary choice tree model for N-alternative preferential choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LenaMariaWollschläger

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The 2N-ary choice tree model accounts for response times and choice probabilities in multi-alternative preferential choice. It implements pairwise comparison of alternatives on weighted attributes into an information sampling process which, in turn, results in a preference process. The model provides expected choice probabilities and response time distributions in closed form for optional and fixed stopping times. The theoretical background of the 2N-ary choice tree model is explained in detail with focus on the transition probabilities that take into account constituents of human preferences such as expectations, emotions or socially influenced attention. Then it is shown how the model accounts for several context-effects observed in human preferential choice like similarity, attraction and compromise effects and how long it takes, on average, for the decision. The model is extended to deal with more than three choice alternatives. A short discussion on how the $2N$-ary choice tree model differs from the Multi-alternative Decision Field Theory and the Leaky Competing Accumulator model is provided.

  18. A variety seeking model of spatial choice-behaviour

    OpenAIRE

    Borgers, A.W.J.; Heijden, R.E.C.M. van der; H J P Timmermans

    1989-01-01

    Conventional choice-models are based on the assumption of a stable utility function. Previous studies have indicated that this assumption may be less valid for certain types of choice-behaviour. In this paper the idea of variety seeking is put forward as a possible explanation for varied choice-behaviour. A model is developed and tested in the context of recreational choice-behaviour.

  19. Hybrid Compensatory-Noncompensatory Choice Sets in Semicompensatory Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Bekhor, Shlomo; Shiftan, Yoram

    2013-01-01

    multinomial criteria that involve trade-offs between attributes at the choice set formation stage. This study proposes a novel behavioral paradigm consisting of a hybrid compensatory-noncompensatory choice set formation process, followed by compensatory choice. The behavioral paradigm is represented by a...... mathematical model that combines multinomial-response and ordered-response thresholds with a utility-based choice. The proposed model is applied to a stated preference experiment of off-campus rental apartment choices by students. Results demonstrate the applicability and feasibility of incorporating...... multinomial-response thresholds into semicompensatory models....

  20. Testing the Double Jeopardy Loyalty Effect Using Discrete Choice Models

    OpenAIRE

    José M. Labeaga; Mercedes Martos-Partal; Nora Lado

    2007-01-01

    This paper attempts to validate the double jeopardy loyalty effect in a utility framework using a discrete choice approach instead of the Dirichlet model. We specify brand choice and allow for differences in brand loyalty measures across brands in two different product categories. The discrete choice model formulations include a multinomial and a latent class multinomial logit model. Using ACNielsen household scanner panel data to estimate the models, we find that market share leaders enjoy h...

  1. A nested recursive logit model for route choice analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mai, Tien; Frejinger, Emma; Fosgerau, Mogens

    2015-01-01

    We propose a route choice model that relaxes the independence from irrelevant alternatives property of the logit model by allowing scale parameters to be link specific. Similar to the recursive logit (RL) model proposed by Fosgerau et al. (2013), the choice of path is modeled as a sequence of lin...

  2. Choice of a model for Z Andromedae

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The analysis of the observations of the symbiotic star Z And has shown that at present there is no choice for its model. If the hot component is an accreting while dwarf with the hydrogen-burning shell source, then the gas envelope must have Tsub(e) approximately 2.6x104 K. If the hot component is a main-sequence star with the accretion disk around it then it is classified as a red dwarf. The electron tempearature of the gas envelope must be equal to 1.5x104 K. The luminosity of the hot component at the minimum of its visual brightness is only a few times smaller than its Eddington limit. Therefore, with rising accretion rate, the initial increase of its brightness (ΔU < or approximately 1sup(m).5), not accompanied by considerable changes of the spectrum of Z And, will be followed by a destruction of the regular disk and by a flare of the star in the visual range. In the same model, partial eclipses of the hot shource must occur. They are probably observed on the star light curve in the U band. The replacement in the double system ''red dwarf+red giant'' of the former component by a solar-type star will lead to a significant decrease of excitation of the combination spectrum

  3. Models of Affective Decision Making: How Do Feelings Predict Choice?

    OpenAIRE

    Charpentier, C. J.; De Neve, J. E.; Li, X; Roiser, J. P.; Sharot, T.

    2016-01-01

    Intuitively, how you feel about potential outcomes will determine your decisions. Indeed, an implicit assumption in one of the most influential theories in psychology, prospect theory, is that feelings govern choice. Surprisingly, however, very little is known about the rules by which feelings are transformed into decisions. Here, we specified a computational model that used feelings to predict choices. We found that this model predicted choice better than existing value-based models, showing...

  4. A practical test for the choice of mixing distribution in discrete choice models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Bierlaire, Michel

    2007-01-01

    The choice of a specific distribution for random parameters of discrete choice models is a critical issue in transportation analysis. Indeed, various pieces of research have demonstrated that an inappropriate choice of the distribution may lead to serious bias in model forecast and in the estimat...... means of random parameters. In this paper, we propose a practical test, based on seminonparametric techniques. The test is analyzed both on synthetic and real data, and is shown to be simple and powerful. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  5. Hierarchical Diffusion Models for Two-Choice Response Times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandekerckhove, Joachim; Tuerlinckx, Francis; Lee, Michael D.

    2011-01-01

    Two-choice response times are a common type of data, and much research has been devoted to the development of process models for such data. However, the practical application of these models is notoriously complicated, and flexible methods are largely nonexistent. We combine a popular model for choice response times--the Wiener diffusion…

  6. Children's Conceptions of Career Choice and Attainment: Model Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Kimberly A. S.; Walsh, Mary E.

    2011-01-01

    This article describes a model of children's conceptions of two key career development processes: career choice and career attainment. The model of children's understanding of career choice and attainment was constructed with developmental research and theory into children's understanding of allied phenomena such as their understanding of illness,…

  7. Hybrid discrete choice models: Gained insights versus increasing effort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariel, Petr; Meyerhoff, Jürgen

    2016-10-15

    Hybrid choice models expand the standard models in discrete choice modelling by incorporating psychological factors as latent variables. They could therefore provide further insights into choice processes and underlying taste heterogeneity but the costs of estimating these models often significantly increase. This paper aims at comparing the results from a hybrid choice model and a classical random parameter logit. Point of departure for this analysis is whether researchers and practitioners should add hybrid choice models to their suite of models routinely estimated. Our comparison reveals, in line with the few prior studies, that hybrid models gain in efficiency by the inclusion of additional information. The use of one of the two proposed approaches, however, depends on the objective of the analysis. If disentangling preference heterogeneity is most important, hybrid model seems to be preferable. If the focus is on predictive power, a standard random parameter logit model might be the better choice. Finally, we give recommendations for an adequate use of hybrid choice models based on known principles of elementary scientific inference. PMID:27310534

  8. Modeling adoption of innovations in agriculture using discrete choice models

    OpenAIRE

    Shefer, Daniel; Cohen, Mordechai; Bekhor, Shlomo

    2004-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the development of varieties and fertilization techniques of greenhouse tomatoes, and their spatial diffusion in the northwestern region of the Negev in Israel. The main objective of the paper is to identify the factors affecting the farmers’ decision to adopt innovations and the factors inducing the process of knowledge-diffusion in the rural region. The approach adopted is the use of discrete choice models based on random utility theory. Results of the empirical...

  9. The predictive accuracy of intertemporal-choice models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arfer, Kodi B; Luhmann, Christian C

    2015-05-01

    How do people choose between a smaller reward available sooner and a larger reward available later? Past research has evaluated models of intertemporal choice by measuring goodness of fit or identifying which decision-making anomalies they can accommodate. An alternative criterion for model quality, which is partly antithetical to these standard criteria, is predictive accuracy. We used cross-validation to examine how well 10 models of intertemporal choice could predict behaviour in a 100-trial binary-decision task. Many models achieved the apparent ceiling of 85% accuracy, even with smaller training sets. When noise was added to the training set, however, a simple logistic-regression model we call the difference model performed particularly well. In many situations, between-model differences in predictive accuracy may be small, contrary to long-standing controversy over the modelling question in research on intertemporal choice, but the simplicity and robustness of the difference model recommend it to future use. PMID:25773127

  10. A supremum-type RESET test for binary choice models

    OpenAIRE

    Esmeralda Ramalho; Joaquim Ramalho; Jose M.R. Murteira

    2012-01-01

    This note introduces a supremum-type RESET statistic for testing the specification of binary choice regression models. A Monte Carlo simulation study reveals very promising results for the proposed statistic.

  11. Psychophysics of time perception and intertemporal choice models

    OpenAIRE

    Takahashi, Taiki; Oono, Hidemi; Radford, Mark H.B.

    2008-01-01

    Intertemporal choice and psychophysics of time perception have been attracting attention in econophysics and neuroeconomics. Several models have been proposed for intertemporal choice: exponential discounting, general hyperbolic discounting (exponential discounting with logarithmic time perception of the Weber–Fechner law, a q-exponential discount model based on Tsallis’s statistics), simple hyperbolic discounting, and Stevens’ power law–exponential discounting (exponential discounting with S...

  12. Profile construction in experimental choice designs for mixed logit models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sandor, Z; Wedel, M

    2002-01-01

    A computationally attractive model for the analysis of conjoint choice experiments is the mixed multinomial logit model, a multinomial logit model in which it is assumed that the coefficients follow a (normal) distribution across subjects. This model offers the advantage over the standard multinomia

  13. Models of Affective Decision Making: How Do Feelings Predict Choice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charpentier, Caroline J; De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel; Li, Xinyi; Roiser, Jonathan P; Sharot, Tali

    2016-06-01

    Intuitively, how you feel about potential outcomes will determine your decisions. Indeed, an implicit assumption in one of the most influential theories in psychology, prospect theory, is that feelings govern choice. Surprisingly, however, very little is known about the rules by which feelings are transformed into decisions. Here, we specified a computational model that used feelings to predict choices. We found that this model predicted choice better than existing value-based models, showing a unique contribution of feelings to decisions, over and above value. Similar to the value function in prospect theory, our feeling function showed diminished sensitivity to outcomes as value increased. However, loss aversion in choice was explained by an asymmetry in how feelings about losses and gains were weighted when making a decision, not by an asymmetry in the feelings themselves. The results provide new insights into how feelings are utilized to reach a decision. PMID:27071751

  14. Lack of Confidence in Approximate Bayesian Computation Model Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Robert, Christian P.; Cornuet, Jean-Marie; Marin, Jean-Michel; Pillai, Natesh S.

    2011-01-01

    Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) have become an essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models. Grelaud et al. [(2009) Bayesian Anal 3:427–442] advocated the use of ABC for model choice in the specific case of Gibbs random fields, relying on an intermodel sufficiency property to show that the approximation was legitimate. We implemented ABC model choice in a wide range of phylogenetic models in the Do It Yourself-ABC (DIY-ABC) software [Cornuet et al. (2008) Bioinformatics...

  15. The Dependent Poisson Race Model and Modeling Dependence in Conjoint Choice Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Shiling; MacEachern, Steven N.; Otter, Thomas; Dean, Angela M.

    2008-01-01

    Conjoint choice experiments are used widely in marketing to study consumer preferences amongst alternative products. We develop a class of choice models, belonging to the class of Poisson race models, that describe a "random utility" which lends itself to a process-based description of choice. The models incorporate a dependence structure which…

  16. Street choice logit model for visitors in shopping districts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawada, Ko; Yamada, Takashi; Kishimoto, Tatsuya

    2014-09-01

    In this study, we propose two models for predicting people's activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction) model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation). The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that "have more shops, and are wider and lower". In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive) and CARS (negative). Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive). PMID:25379274

  17. Street Choice Logit Model for Visitors in Shopping Districts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ko Kawada

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we propose two models for predicting people’s activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation. The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that “have more shops, and are wider and lower”. In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive and CARS (negative. Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive.

  18. Discrete choice models with multiplicative error terms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Bierlaire, Michel

    2009-01-01

    absolute differences. We develop some properties of this type of model and show that in several cases the change from an additive to a multiplicative formulation, maintaining a specification of V, may lead to a large improvement in fit, sometimes larger than that gained from introducing random coefficients...

  19. Incentive theory: II. Models for choice

    OpenAIRE

    Killeen, Peter R.

    1982-01-01

    Incentive theory is extended to account for concurrent chained schedules of reinforcement. The basic model consists of additive contributions from the primary and secondary effects of reinforcers, which serve to direct the behavior activated by reinforcement. The activation is proportional to the rate of reinforcement and interacts multiplicatively with the directive effects. The two free parameters are q, the slope of the delay of reinforcement gradient, whose value is constant across many e...

  20. Politics, Organizations, and Choice: Applications of an Equilibrium Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roos, Leslie L., Jr.

    1972-01-01

    An economic model of consumer choice is used to link the separate theories that have dealt with comparative politics, job satisfaction, and organizational mobility. The model is used to structure data taken from studies of Turkish and French elites on environmental change, organizational mobility, and satisfaction. (Author/DN)

  1. The Effects of Land Use Patterns on Tour Type Choice. The Application of a Hybrid Choice Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Abreu e Silva, João; Sottile, Eleonora; Cherchi, Elisabetta

    2014-01-01

    The relations between travel behavior and land use patterns have been the object of intensive research in the last two decades. Due to their immediate policy implications, mode choice and vehicle miles of travel (VMT) have been the main focus of attention. Other relevant dimensions, like trip...... chaining, tour type choice, and number of tours have received less attention. This work aims to contribute to the research dealing with the role of land use patterns on tour type choice. To pursue this objective, a tour type choice is modeled using a hybrid choice model that allows simulating the effect of...... the latent propensity to travel in the discrete choice among types of tours. This model is applied to a travel diary of workers collected in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area in 2009. Different model specifications were built, testing the inclusion of purportedly built land use factors, which have the...

  2. Lack of confidence in approximate Bayesian computation model choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert, Christian P; Cornuet, Jean-Marie; Marin, Jean-Michel; Pillai, Natesh S

    2011-09-13

    Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) have become an essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models. Grelaud et al. [(2009) Bayesian Anal 3:427-442] advocated the use of ABC for model choice in the specific case of Gibbs random fields, relying on an intermodel sufficiency property to show that the approximation was legitimate. We implemented ABC model choice in a wide range of phylogenetic models in the Do It Yourself-ABC (DIY-ABC) software [Cornuet et al. (2008) Bioinformatics 24:2713-2719]. We now present arguments as to why the theoretical arguments for ABC model choice are missing, because the algorithm involves an unknown loss of information induced by the use of insufficient summary statistics. The approximation error of the posterior probabilities of the models under comparison may thus be unrelated with the computational effort spent in running an ABC algorithm. We then conclude that additional empirical verifications of the performances of the ABC procedure as those available in DIY-ABC are necessary to conduct model choice. PMID:21876135

  3. TAFV Alternative Fuels and Vehicles Choice Model Documentation; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A model for predicting choice of alternative fuel and among alternative vehicle technologies for light-duty motor vehicles is derived. The nested multinomial logit (NML) mathematical framework is used. Calibration of the model is based on information in the existing literature and deduction based on assuming a small number of key parameters, such as the value of time and discount rates. A spreadsheet model has been developed for calibration and preliminary testing of the model

  4. TAFV Alternative Fuels and Vehicles Choice Model Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, D.L.

    2001-07-27

    A model for predicting choice of alternative fuel and among alternative vehicle technologies for light-duty motor vehicles is derived. The nested multinomial logit (NML) mathematical framework is used. Calibration of the model is based on information in the existing literature and deduction based on assuming a small number of key parameters, such as the value of time and discount rates. A spreadsheet model has been developed for calibration and preliminary testing of the model.

  5. The Choice of Financing: a Theoretical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cláudio R. Lucinda

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to understand under which circumstances the employment of the services of a financial intermediary is preferred to the decentralized capital market, as well as to provide some reasons why these types of financing coexist. In order to do that, it will be developed a model in which the free-rider effects lead to profit opportunities for an intermediary when asymmetric information between lenders and borrowers is present. The analysis is extended to a multi-period setting, where the focus is ascertain if, under repeated interaction between the agents, the availability of information on payment history of a borrower alters the previous results. (Full article in Portuguese only

  6. Choices, choices, choices ...

    OpenAIRE

    Duca, Edward

    2013-01-01

    Taking the right decision can be a very challenging and daunting process. Designing a mobile phone, a make up case or even a pipe needs engineering teams to continuously make important choices frequently. http://www.um.edu.mt/think/choices-choices-choices/

  7. Choice as a Global Language in Local Practice: A Mixed Model of School Choice in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Chin-Ju

    2015-01-01

    This paper uses school choice policy as an example to demonstrate how local actors adopt, mediate, translate, and reformulate "choice" as neo-liberal rhetoric informing education reform. Complex processes exist between global policy about school choice and the local practice of school choice. Based on the theoretical sensibility of…

  8. Consumer choice in competitive location models: Formulations and heuristics

    OpenAIRE

    Serra, Daniel (informaticien); Colom??, Rosa

    1998-01-01

    A new direction of research in Competitive Location theory incorporates theories of Consumer Choice Behavior in its models. Following this direction, this paper studies the importance of consumer behavior with respect to distance or transportation costs in the optimality of locations obtained by traditional Competitive Location models. To do this, it considers different ways of defining a key parameter in the basic Maximum Capture model (MAXCAP). This parameter will reflect ...

  9. Building aggregate timber supply models from individual harvest choice

    OpenAIRE

    Polyakov, Maksym; Wear, David N.; Huggett, Robert

    2009-01-01

    Timber supply has traditionally been modelled using aggregate data. In this paper, we build aggregate supply models for four roundwood products for the US state of North Carolina from a stand-level harvest choice model applied to detailed forest inventory. The simulated elasticities of pulpwood supply are much lower than reported by previous studies. Cross price elasticities indicate a dominant influence of sawtimber markets on pulpwood supply. This approach allows predicting the supply conse...

  10. Modeling Multiple Response Processes in Judgment and Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bockenholt, Ulf

    2012-01-01

    In this article, I show how item response models can be used to capture multiple response processes in psychological applications. Intuitive and analytical responses, agree-disagree answers, response refusals, socially desirable responding, differential item functioning, and choices among multiple options are considered. In each of these cases, I…

  11. Self-Control and General Models of Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarick, Douglas J.; Fantino, Edmund

    1976-01-01

    Given an opportunity to choose between an immediate, small reward and a delayed, large reward, pigeons may commit themselves to the large reward, but if the choice is encountered they will almost always select the immediate, small reward. This study tested a model, developed by H. Rachlin and his co-workers, concerning some general theories of…

  12. Modeling Inertia and Variety Seeking Tendencies in Brand Choice Behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Kapil Bawa

    1990-01-01

    Theories of exploratory behavior suggest that inertia and variety-seeking tendencies may coexist within the individual, implying that the same individual may exhibit inertia and variety-seeking at different times depending on his/her choice history. Past research has not allowed for such -consumer variability in these tendencies. The purpose of this study is to present a choice model that allows us to identify such “hybrid” behavior (i.e., a mixture of inertia and variety-seeking), and to dis...

  13. A discrete choice model for labor supply and child care

    OpenAIRE

    Kornstad, Tom; Thoresen, Thor Olav

    2002-01-01

    Abstract: A discrete choice model for labor supply and child care for mothers of preschoolers is presented. The mothers are assumed to make choices from a finite set of job possibilities and from a finite set of child care options. The options in the markets for child care are characterized by opening hours, fees and a number of quality attributes, such as mode of care. Similarly, jobs are characterized by a (fixed) wage rate, working hours and a number of variables related to job satisfac...

  14. Incorporating Mental Representations in Discrete Choice Models of Travel Behaviour : Modelling Approach and Empirical Application

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T.A. Arentze (Theo); B.G.C. Dellaert (Benedict); C.G. Chorus (Casper)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractWe introduce an extension of the discrete choice model to take into account individuals’ mental representation of a choice problem. We argue that, especially in daily activity and travel choices, the activated needs of an individual have an influence on the benefits he or she pursues in

  15. A Simplified Model of Choice Behavior under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Ching-Hung; Lin, Yu-Kai; Song, Tzu-Jiun; Huang, Jong-Tsun; Chiu, Yao-Chu

    2016-01-01

    The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) has been standardized as a clinical assessment tool (Bechara, 2007). Nonetheless, numerous research groups have attempted to modify IGT models to optimize parameters for predicting the choice behavior of normal controls and patients. A decade ago, most researchers considered the expected utility (EU) model (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002) to be the optimal model for predicting choice behavior under uncertainty. However, in recent years, studies have demonstrated that models with the prospect utility (PU) function are more effective than the EU models in the IGT (Ahn et al., 2008). Nevertheless, after some preliminary tests based on our behavioral dataset and modeling, it was determined that the Ahn et al. (2008) PU model is not optimal due to some incompatible results. This study aims to modify the Ahn et al. (2008) PU model to a simplified model and used the IGT performance of 145 subjects as the benchmark data for comparison. In our simplified PU model, the best goodness-of-fit was found mostly as the value of α approached zero. More specifically, we retested the key parameters α, λ, and A in the PU model. Notably, the influence of the parameters α, λ, and A has a hierarchical power structure in terms of manipulating the goodness-of-fit in the PU model. Additionally, we found that the parameters λ and A may be ineffective when the parameter α is close to zero in the PU model. The present simplified model demonstrated that decision makers mostly adopted the strategy of gain-stay loss-shift rather than foreseeing the long-term outcome. However, there are other behavioral variables that are not well revealed under these dynamic-uncertainty situations. Therefore, the optimal behavioral models may not have been found yet. In short, the best model for predicting choice behavior under dynamic-uncertainty situations should be further evaluated. PMID:27582715

  16. Performance and prediction: Bayesian modelling of fallible choice in chess

    OpenAIRE

    Haworth, Guy McCrossan; Regan, Ken; Di Fatta, Giuseppe

    2010-01-01

    Evaluating agents in decision-making applications requires assessing their skill and predicting their behaviour. Both are well developed in Poker-like situations, but less so in more complex game and model domains. This paper addresses both tasks by using Bayesian inference in a benchmark space of reference agents. The concepts are explained and demonstrated using the game of chess but the model applies generically to any domain with quantifiable options and fallible choice. Demonstration ...

  17. A Multiplicative Fixed-Effects Model of Consumer Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Purushottam Papatla

    1996-01-01

    The issue of consumer heterogeneity in discrete choice analysis has been attracting much attention recently. Research has suggested that heterogeneity can result in biased parameter estimates which, in turn, can lead to incorrect conclusions. Among the many methods proposed in the literature to handle heterogeneity, models seem to be the most attractive from a substantive point of view. However, in order to provide consistent estimates, these models typically require long purchase histories. ...

  18. On the Recoverability of Choice Behaviors with Random Coefficients Choice Models in the Context of Limited Data and Unobserved Effects

    OpenAIRE

    Rick L. Andrews; Andrew Ainslie; Imran S. Currim

    2008-01-01

    Random coefficients choice models are seeing widespread adoption in marketing research, partly because of their ability to generate household-level parameter estimates with limited data. However, the power of such models may tempt researchers to trust that they continue to produce reasonable estimates, when in fact either model misspecification or insufficient data limits the models' ability to recover household-level parameters successfully. If household-level choice behaviors are not recove...

  19. Consumer Choice Prediction: Artificial Neural Networks versus Logistic Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Gan

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Conventional econometric models, such as discriminant analysis and logistic regression have been used to predict consumer choice. However, in recent years, there has been a growing interest in applying artificial neural networks (ANN to analyse consumer behaviour and to model the consumer decision-making process. The purpose of this paper is to empirically compare the predictive power of the probability neural network (PNN, a special class of neural networks and a MLFN with a logistic model on consumers’ choices between electronic banking and non-electronic banking. Data for this analysis was obtained through a mail survey sent to 1,960 New Zealand households. The questionnaire gathered information on the factors consumers’ use to decide between electronic banking versus non-electronic banking. The factors include service quality dimensions, perceived risk factors, user input factors, price factors, service product characteristics and individual factors. In addition, demographic variables including age, gender, marital status, ethnic background, educational qualification, employment, income and area of residence are considered in the analysis. Empirical results showed that both ANN models (MLFN and PNN exhibit a higher overall percentage correct on consumer choice predictions than the logistic model. Furthermore, the PNN demonstrates to be the best predictive model since it has the highest overall percentage correct and a very low percentage error on both Type I and Type II errors.

  20. Understanding Predisposition in College Choice: Toward an Integrated Model of College Choice and Theory of Reasoned Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitre, Paul E.; Johnson, Todd E.; Pitre, Charisse Cowan

    2006-01-01

    This article seeks to improve traditional models of college choice that draw from recruitment and enrollment management paradigms. In adopting a consumer approach to college choice, this article seeks to build upon consumer-related research, which centers on behavior and reasoning. More specifically, this article seeks to move inquiry beyond the…

  1. Revenue management under general discrete choice model of consumer behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Talluri, Kalyan; van Ryzin, Garrett

    2000-01-01

    Customer choice behavior, such as 'buy-up' and 'buy-down', is an important phe-nomenon in a wide range of industries. Yet there are few models or methodologies available to exploit this phenomenon within yield management systems. We make some progress on filling this void. Specifically, we develop a model of yield management in which the buyers' behavior is modeled explicitly using a multi-nomial logit model of demand. The control problem is to decide which subset of fare cl...

  2. Research and Simulation on Drivers Route Choice Behavior Cognition Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Na Lin

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper studied the behavior-cognitive model of drivers during their travel based on the current research on driver behavior. Firstly, a route choice behavior-cognitive model was proposed for describing the decision-making mechanism of drivers during his travel; then, simulation experiments were carried out on the co-simulation VBc-vissim platform. From the experimental results, dynamic behavior features of drivers during their travel can be properly explained by the behavior-cognitive model, thus optimal path can be obtained from this model.

  3. Robustness of public choice models of voting behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihai UNGUREANU

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Modern economics modeling practice involves highly unrealistic assumptions. Since testing such models is not always an easy enterprise, researchers face the problem of determining whether a result is dependent (or not on the unrealistic details of the model. A solution for this problem is conducting robustness analysis. In its classical form, robustness analysis is a non-empirical method of confirmation – it raises our trust in a given result by implying it with from several different models. In this paper I argue that robustness analysis could be thought as a method of post-empirical failure. This form of robustness analysis involves assigning guilt for the empirical failure to a certain part of the model. Starting from this notion of robustness, I analyze a case of empirical failure from public choice theory or the economic approach of politics. Using the fundamental methodological principles of neoclassical economics, the first model of voting behavior implied that almost no one would vote. This was clearly an empirical failure. Public choice scholars faced the problem of either restraining the domain of their discipline or giving up to some of their neoclassical methodological features. The second solution was chosen and several different models of voting behavior were built. I will treat these models as a case for performing robustness analysis and I will determine which assumption from the original model is guilty for the empirical failure.

  4. Incorporating Responsiveness to Marketing Efforts When Modeling Brand Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Fok, Dennis; Franses, Philip Hans; Paap, Richard

    2001-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we put forward a brand choice model which incorporates responsiveness to marketing efforts as a form of structural heterogeneity. We introduce two latent segments of households. The households in the first segment are assumed to respond to marketing efforts while households in the second segment do not do so. Whether a specific household is a member of the first or the second segment at a specific purchase occasion is described by household-specific characteristics a...

  5. Unification of models for choice between delayed reinforcers.

    OpenAIRE

    Killeen, P R; Fantino, E

    1990-01-01

    Two models for choice between delayed reinforcers, Fantino's delay-reduction theory and Killeen's incentive theory, are reviewed. Incentive theory is amended to incorporate the effects of arousal on alternate types of behavior that might block the reinforcement of the target behavior. This amended version is shown to differ from the delay-reduction theory in a term that is an exponential in incentive theory and a difference in delay-reduction theory. A power series approximation to the expone...

  6. Financial Choice in a Non-Ricardian Model of Trade

    OpenAIRE

    Russ, Katheryn; Valderrama, Diego

    2010-01-01

    We join the new trade theory with a model of choice between bank and bond financing to show the differential effects of financial policy on the distribution of firm size, welfare, aggregate output, gains from trade, and the real exchange rate in a small open economy. Increasing bank efficiency and reducing bond transaction costs both increase welfare but have opposite effects on the extensive margin of trade, aggregate exports, and the real exchange rate. Increasing the degree of trade openne...

  7. Modeling Preference and Structural Heterogeneity in Consumer Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Kamakura, Wagner A.; Byung-Do Kim; Jonathan Lee

    1996-01-01

    Consumer heterogeneity is fundamental to the marketing concept, providing the basis for market segmentation, targeting and positioning, as well as micro-marketing. Substantial effort has already been devoted to incorporate heterogeneity in brand choice models. However, most of the research in this area has focused on differences in preferences or tastes across consumers. In contrast, limited attention has been given to the possibility that consumers might also differ in the process they follo...

  8. Advanced Nuclear Fuel Cycle Transitions: Optimization, Modeling Choices, and Disruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlsen, Robert W.

    Many nuclear fuel cycle simulators have evolved over time to help understan the nuclear industry/ecosystem at a macroscopic level. Cyclus is one of th first fuel cycle simulators to accommodate larger-scale analysis with it liberal open-source licensing and first-class Linux support. Cyclus also ha features that uniquely enable investigating the effects of modeling choices o fuel cycle simulators and scenarios. This work is divided into thre experiments focusing on optimization, effects of modeling choices, and fue cycle uncertainty. Effective optimization techniques are developed for automatically determinin desirable facility deployment schedules with Cyclus. A novel method fo mapping optimization variables to deployment schedules is developed. Thi allows relationships between reactor types and scenario constraints to b represented implicitly in the variable definitions enabling the usage o optimizers lacking constraint support. It also prevents wasting computationa resources evaluating infeasible deployment schedules. Deployed power capacit over time and deployment of non-reactor facilities are also included a optimization variables There are many fuel cycle simulators built with different combinations o modeling choices. Comparing results between them is often difficult. Cyclus flexibility allows comparing effects of many such modeling choices. Reacto refueling cycle synchronization and inter-facility competition among othe effects are compared in four cases each using combinations of fleet of individually modeled reactors with 1-month or 3-month time steps. There are noticeable differences in results for the different cases. The larges differences occur during periods of constrained reactor fuel availability This and similar work can help improve the quality of fuel cycle analysi generally There is significant uncertainty associated deploying new nuclear technologie such as time-frames for technology availability and the cost of buildin advanced reactors

  9. Representing hybrid compensatory non-compensatory choice set formation in semi-compensatory models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Bekhor, Shlomo; Shigtan, Yoram

    2012-01-01

    Semi-compensatory models represent a choice process consisting of an elimination-based choice set formation upon satisfying criteria thresholds and a utility-based choice. Current semi-compensatory models assume a purely non-compensatory choice set formation and hence do not support multinomial...... model that combines multinomial-response and ordered-response thresholds with a utility-based choice. The proposed model is applied to a stated preference experiment of off-campus rental apartment choices by students. Results demonstrate the applicability and feasibility of incorporating multinomial...

  10. [Ventilators for anesthesia. Models available in France. Criteria for choice].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otteni, J C; Ancellin, J; Cazalaà, J B; Clergue, F; Feiss, P; Fougère, S; Nivoche, Y; Safran, D

    1995-01-01

    This update article discusses the criteria for the choice of an anaesthetic machine and provides a short analysis of the main components of the models commercialized in France in 1994. The following items are considered: the design of the machine, the fresh gas delivery system, the anaesthesia breathing system(s), the ventilator and the waste gas scavenging system, the monitors associated with the machine and other criteria such as facility of learning to run the machine and of its daily use, ease of "in-house" maintenance and quality of after-sales service, cost of the machine and of its use (driving gas, disposable equipment). PMID:7677278

  11. A Duopoly Model of Corporate Social Responsibility and Location Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Balboni, Alberto; Balboni, Fabio

    2008-01-01

    We adopt a framework of vertical differentiation (i.e. differentiation by quality) to study the issue of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). We develop a model of duopoly in a two‐country setting, in which firms choose the country of location, the level of CSR and finally compete in the market à la Bertrand. We show that: i) at equilibrium the two firms choose different levels of CSR, i.e. an "ethical" and a "neutral" firm coexist in the market; ii) regardless of its location choice, the “...

  12. A Discrete Choice Model for Web Site Work Results

    OpenAIRE

    Pavlyuk, Dmitry

    2008-01-01

    Currently a corporate web site is not considered as a necessary business attribute, but as a marketing tool which should yield results. In this study we consider a web site as an instrument for attraction of new partners (customers, suppliers). Web site outputs are a number of visitors interested in contact information (reached the contact info page) and a number of visitors who sent a request via a special form on the web site. We build a sequential discrete choice model for web site out...

  13. Choice Modeling for Usage Context-Based Design

    OpenAIRE

    He, Lin; Chen, Wei; Hoyle, Christopher; Yannou, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    International audience Usage Context-Based Design (UCBD) is an area of growing interest within the design community. Usage context is the set of scenarios in which a product (or service) is to be used, including the environments in which the product is used, the types of tasks the product performs, and the conditions under which the product is purchased and operates. It is proposed in this work that in choice modeling for usage context-based design, usage context should be a part of the pr...

  14. A discrete choice model approximation to the consumer's choice among television displays

    OpenAIRE

    Carlos Giovanni González Espitia; Natalia Serna Borrero

    2013-01-01

    The consumer’s choice over a bundle of products depends on the observable and unobservable characteristics of the product and the consumer. The choice is made over the basis of maximizing utility subject to their income restrictions and, at the same time, firms make product differentiation decisions over the basis of maximizing profit. Quality is one way to differentiate products. An example of this type of differentiation happens in the TV market where several displays are developed. Our obj...

  15. A family of models for Schelling binary choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavalli, Fausto; Naimzada, Ahmad; Pireddu, Marina

    2016-02-01

    We introduce and study a family of discrete-time dynamical systems to model binary choices based on the framework proposed by Schelling in 1973. The model we propose uses a gradient-like adjustment mechanism by means of a family of smooth maps and allows understanding and analytically studying the phenomena qualitatively described by Schelling. In particular, we investigate existence of steady states and their relation to the equilibria of the static model studied by Schelling, and we analyze local stability, linking several examples and considerations provided by Schelling with bifurcation theory. We provide examples to confirm the theoretical results and to numerically investigate the possible destabilizations, as well as the emergence of coexisting attractors. We show the existence of chaos for a particular example.

  16. A model of interacting multiple choices of continuous opinions

    CERN Document Server

    Chou, C -I

    2016-01-01

    We present a model of interacting multiple choices of opinions. At each step of the process, a listener is persuaded by his/her neighbour, the lobbyist, to modify his/her opinion on two different choices of event. Whether or not the listener will be convinced by the lobbyist depends on the difference between his/her opinion with that of the lobbyist, and with that of the revealed social opinion (the social pressure). If the listener is convinced, he/she will modify his/her opinion and update his/her revealed preference, and proceed to persuade his/her next neighbour. If the listener is not convinced by the lobbyist, he/she will retain his/her revealed preference, and try to persuade the lobbyist to change his/her opinion. In this case, the direction of opinion propagation is reversed. A consensus is reached when all the revealed preference is the same. Our numerical results show that consensus can always be attained in this model. However, the time needed to achieve consensus, or the so-called convergence tim...

  17. ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brooker, A.; Gonder, J.; Lopp, S.; Ward, J.

    2015-05-04

    The Automotive Deployment Option Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a light-duty vehicle consumer choice and stock model supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. It estimates technology improvement impacts on U.S. light-duty vehicles sales, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas emissions. ADOPT uses techniques from the multinomial logit method and the mixed logit method estimate sales. Specifically, it estimates sales based on the weighted value of key attributes including vehicle price, fuel cost, acceleration, range and usable volume. The average importance of several attributes changes nonlinearly across its range and changes with income. For several attributes, a distribution of importance around the average value is used to represent consumer heterogeneity. The majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims are included to fully represent the market. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations are enforced. The sales feed into the ADOPT stock model. It captures key aspects for summing petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions This includes capturing the change in vehicle miles traveled by vehicle age, the creation of new model options based on the success of existing vehicles, new vehicle option introduction rate limits, and survival rates by vehicle age. ADOPT has been extensively validated with historical sales data. It matches in key dimensions including sales by fuel economy, acceleration, price, vehicle size class, and powertrain across multiple years. A graphical user interface provides easy and efficient use. It manages the inputs, simulation, and results.

  18. Estimating Route Choice Models from Stochastically Generated Choice Sets on Large-Scale Networks Correcting for Unequal Sampling Probability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vacca, Alessandro; Prato, Carlo Giacomo; Meloni, Italo

    2015-01-01

    extracted with stochastic route generation. The term is easily applicable to large-scale networks and various environments, given its dependence only on a random number generator and the Dijkstra shortest path algorithm. The implementation for revealed preferences data, which consist of actual route choices...... is the dependency of the parameter estimates from the choice set generation technique. Bias introduced in model estimation has been corrected only for the random walk algorithm, which has problematic applicability to large-scale networks. This study proposes a correction term for the sampling probability of routes...

  19. Using cognitive models to develop quality multiple-choice questions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pugh, Debra; De Champlain, Andre; Gierl, Mark; Lai, Hollis; Touchie, Claire

    2016-08-01

    With the recent interest in competency-based education, educators are being challenged to develop more assessment opportunities. As such, there is increased demand for exam content development, which can be a very labor-intense process. An innovative solution to this challenge has been the use of automatic item generation (AIG) to develop multiple-choice questions (MCQs). In AIG, computer technology is used to generate test items from cognitive models (i.e. representations of the knowledge and skills that are required to solve a problem). The main advantage yielded by AIG is the efficiency in generating items. Although technology for AIG relies on a linear programming approach, the same principles can also be used to improve traditional committee-based processes used in the development of MCQs. Using this approach, content experts deconstruct their clinical reasoning process to develop a cognitive model which, in turn, is used to create MCQs. This approach is appealing because it: (1) is efficient; (2) has been shown to produce items with psychometric properties comparable to those generated using a traditional approach; and (3) can be used to assess higher order skills (i.e. application of knowledge). The purpose of this article is to provide a novel framework for the development of high-quality MCQs using cognitive models. PMID:26998566

  20. Random Regret Minimization: Exploration of a New Choice Model for Environmental and Resource Economics

    OpenAIRE

    Thiene, Mara; Boeri, Marco; Chorus, Caspar G.

    2012-01-01

    This paper introduces the discrete choice model-paradigm of Random Regret Minimization (RRM) to the field of environmental and resource economics. The RRM-approach has been very recently developed in the context of travel demand modelling and presents a tractable, regret-based alternative to the dominant choice-modelling paradigm based on Random Utility Maximization-theory (RUM-theory). We highlight how RRM-based models provide closed form, logit-type formulations for choice probabilities tha...

  1. Variety Seeking, Purchase Timing, and the "Lightning Bolt" Brand Choice Model

    OpenAIRE

    Pradeep K. Chintagunta

    1999-01-01

    The "Lightning Bolt" (LB) model provides a comprehensive framework for accommodating the effects of habit persistence, unobserved heterogeneity, and state dependence on household brand choice behavior. This paper presents a discrete, dynamic brand-choice model that belongs to the LB class of models. We propose a method for incorporating the effects of variety seeking into the LB model formulation. The proposed formulation explicitly links brand choice and purchase timing behavior via the effe...

  2. Dopamine enhances model-based over model-free choice behavior.

    OpenAIRE

    Wunderlich, K; Smittenaar, P.; Dolan, R J

    2012-01-01

    Summary Decision making is often considered to arise out of contributions from a model-free habitual system and a model-based goal-directed system. Here, we investigated the effect of a dopamine manipulation on the degree to which either system contributes to instrumental behavior in a two-stage Markov decision task, which has been shown to discriminate model-free from model-based control. We found increased dopamine levels promote model-based over model-free choice.

  3. The Answering Process for Multiple-Choice Questions in Collaborative Learning: A Mathematical Learning Model Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Nishi, Shinnosuke; Muramatsu, Yuta; Yasutake, Koichi; Yamakawa, Osamu; Tagawa, Takahiro

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce a mathematical model for collaborative learning and the answering process for multiple-choice questions. The collaborative learning model is inspired by the Ising spin model and the model for answering multiple-choice questions is based on their difficulty level. An intensive simulation study predicts the possibility of…

  4. Joint Residence-Workplace Location Choice Model Based on Household Decision Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengpeng Jiao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Residence location and workplace are the two most important urban land-use types, and there exist strong interdependences between them. Existing researches often assume that one choice dimension is correlated to the other. Using the mixed logit framework, three groups of choice models are developed to illustrate such choice dependencies. First, for all households, this paper presents a basic methodology of the residence location and workplace choice without decision sequence based on the assumption that the two choice behaviors are independent of each other. Second, the paper clusters all households into two groups, choosing residence or workplace first, and formulates the residence location and workplace choice models under the constraint of decision sequence. Third, this paper combines the residence location and workplace together as the choice alternative and puts forward the joint choice model. A questionnaire survey is implemented in Beijing city to collect the data of 1994 households. Estimation results indicate that the joint choice model fits the data significantly better, and the elasticity effects analyses show that the joint choice model reflects the influences of relevant factors to the choice probability well and leads to the job-housing balance.

  5. Agent-based modelling of consumer energy choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, Varun; Henry, Adam Douglas

    2016-06-01

    Strategies to mitigate global climate change should be grounded in a rigorous understanding of energy systems, particularly the factors that drive energy demand. Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a powerful tool for representing the complexities of energy demand, such as social interactions and spatial constraints. Unlike other approaches for modelling energy demand, ABM is not limited to studying perfectly rational agents or to abstracting micro details into system-level equations. Instead, ABM provides the ability to represent behaviours of energy consumers -- such as individual households -- using a range of theories, and to examine how the interaction of heterogeneous agents at the micro-level produces macro outcomes of importance to the global climate, such as the adoption of low-carbon behaviours and technologies over space and time. We provide an overview of ABM work in the area of consumer energy choices, with a focus on identifying specific ways in which ABM can improve understanding of both fundamental scientific and applied aspects of the demand side of energy to aid the design of better policies and programmes. Future research needs for improving the practice of ABM to better understand energy demand are also discussed.

  6. Models of Stochastic Choice and Decision Theories: Why Both are Important for Analyzing Decisions

    OpenAIRE

    2007-01-01

    Economic research offers two traditional ways of analyzing decision making under risk. One option is to compare the goodness of fit of different decision theories using the same model of stochastic choice. An alternative way is to vary models of stochastic choice combining them with only one or two decision theories. This paper proposes to look at the bigger picture by comparing different combinations of decision theories and models of stochastic choice. We select a menu of seven popular deci...

  7. Models of affective decision-making: how do feelings predict choice?

    OpenAIRE

    Charpentier, Caroline J.; De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel; Roiser, Jonathan P.; Sharot, Tali

    2016-01-01

    Intuitively, how we feel about potential outcomes will determine our decisions. Indeed, one of the most influential theories in psychology, Prospect Theory, implicitly assumes that feelings govern choice. Surprisingly, however, we know very little about the rules by which feelings are transformed into decisions. Here, we characterize a computational model that uses feelings to predict choice. We reveal that this model predicts choice better than existing value-based models, showin...

  8. About One Model Strategic Game of Collective Choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guram N. Beltadze

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available A model of dyadic non-cooperative game Γ(H is discussed in the paper for the set of one and the same players’ strategies. The players make their choice sitting round the table and have the opportunity to coordinate only the meanings of utilities in every situation. Therefore the players’ payoffs are given by 2×2 matrixes. A notion “the equalized situation” in mixed strategies which is at the same time the equilibrium is introduced. The theorem has been proved, which establishes the conditions of existance of an equalized situation in the given game. In the case of the existence algorithm is constructed. If equalized situation doesn’t exist in the game, then there exists the equilibrium situation in the pure strategies and it is possible to find it by analysis of situations. Γ(H game’s with bimatrix Γ game in case of two players is given. The players’ conditions of optimal mixed strategies existence in Γ game is written. Relevant examples are solved and Γ(H game’s application for finite amount of players’ is discussed.

  9. Estimation of Discrete Choice Models with Many Alternatives Using Random Subsets of the Full Choice Set: With an Application to Demand for Frozen Pizza

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Keane; Nada Wasi

    2012-01-01

    A common problem in estimation of discrete choice models is that the complete choice set is very large. A good example is supermarket consumer goods, like breakfast cereal, where there are often a hundred or more varieties (SKUs or UPCs) to choose from. In that case, estimation of complex discrete choice models where choice probabilities have no closed form can be very computationally burdensome. We show how use of random subsets of the full choice set can be a useful device to reduce computa...

  10. Assisted Reproductive Technologies (ART) in a model of fertility choice

    OpenAIRE

    Rainer, Helmut; Selvaretnam, Geethanjali; Ulph, David

    2008-01-01

    This paper provides a simple theoretical framework to discuss the relationship between assisted reproductive technologies and the microeconomics of fertility choice. Individuals make choices of education and work along with decisions about whether and when to have children. Decisions regarding fertility are influenced by policy and labor market factors that affect the earnings opportunities of mothers and the costs of raising children. We show how observed differences in these economic factor...

  11. A link based network route choice model with unrestricted choice set

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Frejinger, Emma; Karlstrom, Anders

    2013-01-01

    multinomial logit form but with infinitely many alternatives. The model can be consistently estimated and used for prediction in a computationally efficient way. Similarly to the path size logit model, we propose an attribute called link size that corrects utilities of overlapping paths but that is link...

  12. The Use of Predictive Models in Forecasting Student Choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuckman, Howard P.

    This paper uses ordinary least squares regression to obtain probabilities for the post-graduation choices of high school seniors, and it presents an illustration of the use of these probabilities in calculating future income. Problems raised by the use of the least squares regression are discussed. The benefits of higher education and ways in…

  13. Effects of chronic administration of drugs of abuse on impulsive choice (delay discounting) in animal models

    OpenAIRE

    Setlow, Barry; Mendez, Ian A.; Mitchell, Marci R; Simon, Nicholas W.

    2009-01-01

    Drug addicted individuals demonstrate high levels of impulsive choice, characterized by preference for small immediate over larger but delayed rewards. Although the causal relationship between chronic drug use and elevated impulsive choice in humans has been unclear, a small but growing body of literature over the past decade has shown that chronic drug administration in animal models can cause increases in impulsive choice, suggesting that a similar causal relationship may exist in human dru...

  14. Discrete choice models as a tool for transit service quality evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Laura Eboli; Gabriella Mazzulla

    2011-01-01

    In this paper discrete choice Logit models for measuring transit service quality are proposed. Multinomial and Mixed Logit models are used as a tool for evaluating the importance of the different transit service aspects on the overall service quality. Particularly, Mixed Logit models are proposed in order to take into account the heterogeneity of perceptions across individuals. The models were calibrated on the basis of Stated Preferences choice experiments, in which decision makers...

  15. Multinomial logit model of choices of Internet modes in Iraq

    OpenAIRE

    Heshmati, Almas; Firas H. Al-Hammadany

    2014-01-01

    Iraq is a country that has the potential to explode onto the Internet market due to the fact that much of Iraq is still largely without access to the Internet. Iraq’s market has much room for corporate and individual investments in Internet technology, mainly, Internet access. However, this requires a deep understanding of the user with regards to the Internet and the market characteristics involved. This study is concerned with the users’ choice of Internet mode connections in Iraq. There ar...

  16. Consumer choice models on the effect of promotions in retailing

    OpenAIRE

    Guyt, Jonne

    2015-01-01

    This doctoral thesis contains three empirical essays regarding the effect of promotions on consumer choices in a retailing context. The first essay studies the scheduling of featured price cuts for national brands, across retail chains. It shows that coordinating promotions across chains influences the performance outcomes for both manufacturers and retailers in several consumer packaged goods (CPG) categories. The second essay investigates the impact of consumers’ decision making processes o...

  17. Fuzzy social choice models explaining the government formation process

    CERN Document Server

    C Casey, Peter; A Goodman, Carly; Pook, Kelly Nelson; N Mordeson, John; J Wierman, Mark; D Clark, Terry

    2014-01-01

    This book explores the extent to which fuzzy set logic can overcome some of the shortcomings of public choice theory, particularly its inability to provide adequate predictive power in empirical studies. Especially in the case of social preferences, public choice theory has failed to produce the set of alternatives from which collective choices are made.  The book presents empirical findings achieved by the authors in their efforts to predict the outcome of government formation processes in European parliamentary and semi-presidential systems.  Using data from the Comparative Manifesto Project (CMP), the authors propose a new approach that reinterprets error in the coding of CMP data as ambiguity in the actual political positions of parties on the policy dimensions being coded. The range of this error establishes parties’ fuzzy preferences. The set of possible outcomes in the process of government formation is then calculated on the basis of both the fuzzy Pareto set and the fuzzy maximal set, and the pre...

  18. Modeling the Bullying Prevention Program Preferences of Educators: A Discrete Choice Conjoint Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Charles E.; Vaillancourt, Tracy; Rimas, Heather; Deal, Ken; Cunningham, Lesley; Short, Kathy; Chen, Yvonne

    2009-01-01

    We used discrete choice conjoint analysis to model the bullying prevention program preferences of educators. Using themes from computerized decision support lab focus groups (n = 45 educators), we composed 20 three-level bullying prevention program design attributes. Each of 1,176 educators completed 25 choice tasks presenting experimentally…

  19. A Statistical Model of the Grammatical Choices in Child Production of Dative Sentences

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Marneffe, Marie-Catherine; Grimm, Scott; Arnon, Inbal; Kirby, Susannah; Bresnan, Joan

    2012-01-01

    Focusing on children's production of the dative alternation in English, we examine whether children's choices are influenced by the same factors that influence adults' choices, and whether, like adults, they are sensitive to multiple factors simultaneously. We do so by using mixed-effect regression models to analyse child and child-directed…

  20. Bayesian nonparametric estimation and consistency of mixed multinomial logit choice models

    CERN Document Server

    De Blasi, Pierpaolo; Lau, John W; 10.3150/09-BEJ233

    2011-01-01

    This paper develops nonparametric estimation for discrete choice models based on the mixed multinomial logit (MMNL) model. It has been shown that MMNL models encompass all discrete choice models derived under the assumption of random utility maximization, subject to the identification of an unknown distribution $G$. Noting the mixture model description of the MMNL, we employ a Bayesian nonparametric approach, using nonparametric priors on the unknown mixing distribution $G$, to estimate choice probabilities. We provide an important theoretical support for the use of the proposed methodology by investigating consistency of the posterior distribution for a general nonparametric prior on the mixing distribution. Consistency is defined according to an $L_1$-type distance on the space of choice probabilities and is achieved by extending to a regression model framework a recent approach to strong consistency based on the summability of square roots of prior probabilities. Moving to estimation, slightly different te...

  1. Of Songs and Men: a Model for Multiple Choice with Herding

    OpenAIRE

    Christian Borghesi; Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

    2006-01-01

    We propose a generic model for multiple choice situations in the presence of herding and compare it with recent empirical results from a Web-based music market experiment. The model predicts a phase transition between a weak imitation phase and a strong imitation, `fashion' phase, where choices are driven by peer pressure and the ranking of individual preferences is strongly distorted at the aggregate level. The model can be calibrated to reproduce the main experimental results of Salganik et...

  2. Estimating a Multinomial Probit Model of Brand Choice Using the Method of Simulated Moments

    OpenAIRE

    Pradeep K. Chintagunta

    1992-01-01

    The multinomial probit model of brand choice is theoretically appealing for marketing applications as it is free from the “independence of irrelevant alternatives” property of the multinomial logit model. However, difficulties in estimation have restricted its widespread use in marketing. This paper presents an application of the method of simulated moments, a new methodology that enables easy estimation of probit models with a large number of alternatives in the choice set. We describe the t...

  3. A Transactions Choice Model for Forecasting Demand for Alternative-Fuel Vehicles

    OpenAIRE

    Brownstone, David; Bunch, David S.; Golob, Thomas F.; Ren, Weiping

    1996-01-01

    The vehicle choice model developed here is one component in a micro-simulation demand forecasting system being designed to produce annual forecasts of new and used vehicle demand by vehicle type and geographic area in California. The system will also forecast annual vehicle miles traveled for all vehicles and recharging demand by time of day for electric vehicles. The choice model specification differs from past studies by directly modeling vehicle transactions rather than vehicle holdings. T...

  4. Business model choices and dimensions of social capital, a path to attain organizational sustainability

    OpenAIRE

    Rodríguez Donaire, Silvia

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we study the link between business model set of choices and the way these choices and the resulting business model configuration influence its behaviour, including the consequences. In particular, we study social capital formation as a potential outcome of the business model configuration. Social capital is an important resource that might contribute to the firm sustainability. A conceptual framework is developed. In this preliminary study we have applied it to a real situati...

  5. Extensions and applications of the diffusion model for two-choice response times

    OpenAIRE

    Vandekerckhove, Joachim

    2009-01-01

    Joachim Vandekerckhove, Extensions and applications of the diffu sion model for two-choice response times. Dissertation submitted to obtain the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Psychology, April 2009. Promoter: Prof. Dr. F. Tuerlinckx. Two-choice response time data (2CRT) is one of the most common formats o f empirical data in experimental psychology. Unfortunately, such data do not adhere to the requirements of standard statistical models (such as the general linear model). The main goa...

  6. A discrete choice model with social interactions: an analysis of high school teen behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Kooreman, Peter; Soetevent, Adriaan

    2002-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete choice model that explicitly allows for endogenous social interactions. We analyze the issues of multiple equilibria, statistical coherency, and estimation of the model by means of simulation methods. In an empirical application, we analyze a data set containing information on the individual behavior of some 8000 high school teenagers from almost 500 different school classes. We estimate the model for five types of teen discrete choice behavior: smoking, truan...

  7. Multinomial logit model of choices of Internet modes in Iraq

    OpenAIRE

    Heshmati, Almas; Firas H. Al-Hammadany

    2014-01-01

    Iraq is a country that has the potential to explode onto the Internet market due to the fact that much of Iraq is still largely without access to the Internet. Iraq¡¯s market has much room for corporate and individual investments in Internet technology, mainly, Internet access. However, this requires a deep understanding of the user with regards to the Internet and the market characteristics involved. This study is concerned with the users¡¯ choice of Internet mode connections in Iraq. There ...

  8. Choice modeling of relook tasks for UAV search missions

    OpenAIRE

    Bertuccelli, Luca F.; Pellegrino, Nicholas A.; Cummings, M.L.

    2010-01-01

    This paper addresses human decision-making in supervisory control of a team of unmanned vehicles performing search missions. Previous work has proposed the use of a two-alternative choice framework, in which operators declare the presence or absence of a target in an image. It has been suggested that relooking at a target at some later time can help operators improve the accuracy of their decisions but it is not well understood how - or how well - operators handle this relook task with multip...

  9. Choices and Changes: Eccles’ Expectancy-Value Model and Upper-Secondary School Students’ Longitudinal Reflections about their Choice of a STEM Education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-01-01

    During the past 30 years, Eccles’ comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students...... in their last year in upper-secondary school concerning their choice of tertiary education were examined using quantitative EV-MBC surveys and repeated qualitative interviews. This article presents the analyses of three cases in detail. The analytical focus was whether the factors indicated in the EV......-MBC model could be used to detect significant changes in the students’ educational choice processes. An important finding was that the quantitative EV-MBC surveys and the qualitative interviews gave quite different results concerning the students’ considerations about the choice of tertiary education, and...

  10. Choices and changes: Eccles’ Expectancy-Value model and upper-secondary school students’ longitudinal reflections about their choice of a STEM education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-01-01

    During the past 30 years, Eccles? comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students...... in their last year in upper-secondary school concerning their choice of tertiary education were examined using quantitative EV-MBC surveys and repeated qualitative interviews. This article presents the analyses of three cases in detail. The analytical focus was whether the factors indicated in the EV......-MBC model could be used to detect significant changes in the students? educational choice processes. An important finding was that the quantitative EV-MBC surveys and the qualitative interviews gave quite different results concerning the students? considerations about the choice of tertiary education, and...

  11. Choices and changes: Eccles' Expectancy-Value model and upper-secondary school students' longitudinal reflections about their choice of a STEM education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-03-01

    During the past 30 years, Eccles' comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students in their last year in upper-secondary school concerning their choice of tertiary education were examined using quantitative EV-MBC surveys and repeated qualitative interviews. This article presents the analyses of three cases in detail. The analytical focus was whether the factors indicated in the EV-MBC model could be used to detect significant changes in the students' educational choice processes. An important finding was that the quantitative EV-MBC surveys and the qualitative interviews gave quite different results concerning the students' considerations about the choice of tertiary education, and that significant changes in the students' reflections were not captured by the factors of the EV-MBC model. This questions the validity of the EV-MBC surveys. Moreover, the quantitative factors from the EV-MBC model did not sufficiently explain students' dynamical educational choice processes where students in parallel considered several different potential educational trajectories. We therefore call for further studies of the EV-MBC model's use in describing longitudinal choice processes and especially in investigating significant changes.

  12. Departure time choice: Modelling individual preferences, intention and constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorhauge, Mikkel

    Copenhagen – like most other major cities – is facing problems with congestion, (especially) related to commuting in dense urban areas, in which the demand is condensed in peak-hours (Mahmassani, 2000; The Forum of Municipalities, 2008). A number of studies have shown that people are more likely ...... of Planned Behaviour (Ajzen, 1991), in which Intention act as a mediator between the underlying latent factors (attitude, norms, and perception). It was found that the psychological factors not only influenced the choice but also individual preferences....... previously been neglected by nearly all studies within departure time. More importantly it shows that the underlying psychological processes are more complex than simply accounting for attitudes and perceptions which are typically used in other areas. The work in this PhD thesis accounts for the full Theory...

  13. A Transaction Choice Model for Forecasting Demand for Alternative-Fuel Vehicles

    OpenAIRE

    Brownstone, David; Bunch, David S.; Golob, Thomas F.; Ren, Weiping

    1996-01-01

    The vehicle choice model developed here is one component in a mlcro-slmulatlon demand forecasting system being designed to produce annual forecasts of new and used vehicle demand by vehicle type and geographic area in Cahforma. The system will also forecast annual vehicle miles traveled for all vehicles and recharging demand by ume of day for electric vehicles. The choice model specification differs from past studies by directly modehng vehicle transactions rather than vehlcle holdings. The m...

  14. Modelling the effects of shopping centre size and store variety on consumer choice behaviour

    OpenAIRE

    Oppewal, H Harmen; Timmermans, HJP Harry; Louviere, JJ Jordan

    1997-01-01

    In this paper it is argued that models of consumer choice of shopping destination have included few attributes related to the selection of stores available in a shopping centre. The authors seek to develop and illustrate empirically a way to define the selection of stores in shopping centres, such that effects of various modifications to the available selection can be modelled by conjoint analysis (or stated preference of decompositional choice) methods. Profiles of hypothetical shopping cent...

  15. The selection of a mode of urban transportation: Integrating psychological variables to discrete choice models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A study using revealed preference surveys and psychological tests was conducted. Key psychological variables of behavior involved in the choice of transportation mode in a population sample of the Metropolitan Area of the Valle de Aburra were detected. The experiment used the random utility theory for discrete choice models and reasoned action in order to assess beliefs. This was used as a tool for analysis of the psychological variables using the sixteen personality factor questionnaire (16PF test). In addition to the revealed preference surveys, two other surveys were carried out: one with socio-economic characteristics and the other with latent indicators. This methodology allows for an integration of discrete choice models and latent variables. The integration makes the model operational and quantifies the unobservable psychological variables. The most relevant result obtained was that anxiety affects the choice of urban transportation mode and shows that physiological alterations, as well as problems in perception and beliefs, can affect the decision-making process.

  16. Institutional influences on business model choice by new ventures in the microgenerated energy industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Provance, Mike, E-mail: mprovanc@odu.edu [Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA 23529 (United States); Donnelly, Richard G.; Carayannis, Elias G. [George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052 (United States)

    2011-09-15

    Business model choice plays an important source of competitive advantage for new ventures in the microgeneration sector. Yet, existing literature focuses on strategic management of internal resources as the constraints in this choice process. In the energy sector, external factors may be at least as influential in shaping these business models. This paper examines the roles of politico-institutional and socio-institutional dynamics in the choice of business models for microgeneration ventures. Business models have traditionally been viewed as constructions of the internal values, strategies, and resources of organizations. But, this perspective overlooks the role that external forces have on these models, particularly in more highly institutionalized contexts like microgeneration. When these factors are introduced into the existing framework for business model choice, the business model based less on firm decision-making and more about variables that exist within national innovation systems and political structure, local socio-technological conditions, and cognitive abilities of the entrepreneur and corresponding stakeholders. - Highlights: > This work provides theoretical foundation for variation in microgeneration business models. > Explores institutional influences on strategic view of business model choice. > Compares the nature of microgeneration across geo-political contexts.

  17. Institutional influences on business model choice by new ventures in the microgenerated energy industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Business model choice plays an important source of competitive advantage for new ventures in the microgeneration sector. Yet, existing literature focuses on strategic management of internal resources as the constraints in this choice process. In the energy sector, external factors may be at least as influential in shaping these business models. This paper examines the roles of politico-institutional and socio-institutional dynamics in the choice of business models for microgeneration ventures. Business models have traditionally been viewed as constructions of the internal values, strategies, and resources of organizations. But, this perspective overlooks the role that external forces have on these models, particularly in more highly institutionalized contexts like microgeneration. When these factors are introduced into the existing framework for business model choice, the business model based less on firm decision-making and more about variables that exist within national innovation systems and political structure, local socio-technological conditions, and cognitive abilities of the entrepreneur and corresponding stakeholders. - Highlights: → This work provides theoretical foundation for variation in microgeneration business models. → Explores institutional influences on strategic view of business model choice. → Compares the nature of microgeneration across geo-political contexts.

  18. How urban environment affects travel behavior? Integrated Choice and Latent Variable Model for Travel Schedules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    La Paix, Lissy; Bierlaire, Michel; Cherchi, Elisabetta;

    2013-01-01

    The relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour is not a new problem. Neighbourhood characteristics may affect mobility of dwellers in different ways, such as frequency of trips, mode used, structure of the tours, and so on. At the same time, qualitative issues related to the...... individual attitude towards specific behaviour have recently become important in transport modelling contributing to a better understanding of travel demand. Following this research line, in this paper we study the effect of neighbourhood characteristics in the choice of the type of tours performed, but we...... assume that neighbourhood characteristics can also affect the individual propensity to travel and hence the choice of the tours throughout the propensity to travel. Since the propensity to travel is not observed, we employ hybrid choice models to estimate jointly the discrete choice of tours and the...

  19. The Choice of Modeling Firm Heterogeneity and Trade Restrictions

    OpenAIRE

    Matthew T. Cole

    2009-01-01

    There has been great focus in the recent trade theory literature on the introduction of firm heterogeneity into trade models. However, these models tend to rely heavily on symmetry assumptions and assume melting iceberg transport costs as the only form of trade restrictions. Moreover, a standard assumption is that firms differ across marginal cost, yet empirical evidence suggests this is not the only important source of heterogeneity. I provide a highly tractable model, in whic...

  20. A Cognitive Diagnosis Model for Cognitively Based Multiple-Choice Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Torre, Jimmy

    2009-01-01

    Cognitive or skills diagnosis models are discrete latent variable models developed specifically for the purpose of identifying the presence or absence of multiple fine-grained skills. However, applications of these models typically involve dichotomous or dichotomized data, including data from multiple-choice (MC) assessments that are scored as…

  1. The Simplest Complete Model of Choice Response Time: Linear Ballistic Accumulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Scott D.; Heathcote, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    We propose a linear ballistic accumulator (LBA) model of decision making and reaction time. The LBA is simpler than other models of choice response time, with independent accumulators that race towards a common response threshold. Activity in the accumulators increases in a linear and deterministic manner. The simplicity of the model allows…

  2. The Value of Wireless Internet Connection on Trains: Implications for Mode-Choice Models

    OpenAIRE

    Banerjee, Ipsita; Kanafani, Adib

    2008-01-01

    Deployment of advanced technologies has enabled wireless internet access for commuters on various transportation modes. Such networked environments have enabled riders to engage in productive activities in transit. The ability to perform activities while traveling, especially paid work, may significantly affect the value of travel time (VOTT), with potential impacts on mode choice and commute patterns. In this study, we develop a model of the VOTT grounded in utility theory and activity choic...

  3. Marketing Portfolio Choices by Independent Peach Growers: An Application of the Polychotomous Selection Model

    OpenAIRE

    Florkowski, Wojciech J.; Park, Timothy A.; BILGIC, Abdulbaki

    2003-01-01

    In selecting a marketing channel for fresh peach sales, Georgia commercial peach growers choose the channel after accounting for buyers' preferences for quality attributes. Using the polychotomous selection model and survey data we identified external and internal quality attributes as essential factors influencing the choice of a marketing channel and the share of the crop marketed. Other factors influencing the choice and the volume sold through each marketing channel included orchard chara...

  4. The timing of disability insurance application: a choice-based semiparametric hazard model

    OpenAIRE

    Richard V. Burkhauser; Butler, J. S.; Yang-Woo Kim

    1996-01-01

    We use a choice-based subsample of Social Security Disability Insurance applicants from the 1978 Social Security Survey of Disability and Work to test the importance of policy variables on the timing of application for disability insurance benefits following the onset of a work limiting health condition. We correct for choice-based sampling by extending the Manski-Lerman (1977) correction to the likelihood function of our continuous time hazard model defined with semiparametric unmeasured het...

  5. Structural Workshop Paper--Discrete-Choice Models of Consumer Demand in Marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Pradeep K. Chintagunta; Nair, Harikesh S.

    2011-01-01

    Marketing researchers have used models of consumer demand to forecast future sales, to describe and test theories of behavior, and to measure the response to marketing interventions. The basic framework typically starts from microfoundations of expected utility theory to obtain an econometric system that describes consumers' choices over available options, and to thus characterize product demand. The basic framework has been augmented significantly to account for quantity choices, to accommod...

  6. Issues in Urban Travel Demand Modelling : ICT Implications and Trip timing choice

    OpenAIRE

    Börjesson, Maria

    2006-01-01

    Travel demand forecasting is essential for many decisions, such as infrastructure investments and policy measures. Traditionally travel demand modelling has considered trip frequency, mode, destination and route choice. This thesis considers two other choice dimensions, hypothesised to have implications for travel demand forecasting. The first part investigates how the increased possibilities to overcome space that ICT (information and communication technology) provides, can be integrated in ...

  7. Cultural Heritage and the Location Choice of Dutch Households in a Residential Sorting Model

    OpenAIRE

    van Duijn, Mark; Rouwendal, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Local amenities are an important factor in the location choice of households. Heterogeneity in preferences of households tends to sort households over different locations which satisfy best their preferences given their constraints. In this paper, we analyze the effect of cultural heritage on the location choice of households using a residential sorting model. Cultural heritage is often a determining factor of the specific atmosphere of a location and is valued as such by its residents. Since...

  8. The Statistical Relationship between Bivariate and Multinomial Choice Models

    OpenAIRE

    Weeks, Melvyn; Orne, Chris

    1999-01-01

    The authors demonstrate the conditions under which the bivariate probit model can be considered a special case of the more general multinomial probit model. Since the attendant parameter restrictions produce a singular covariance matrix, the subsequent problems of testing on the boundary of the parameter space are circumvented by the construction of a score test.

  9. Modelling travel time perception in transport mode choices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Varotto, S.F.; Glerum, A.; Stathopoulos, A.; Bierlaire, M.; Longo, G.

    2015-01-01

    Travel behaviour models typically rely on data afflicted by errors, in perception (e.g., over/under-estimation by traveller) and measurement (e.g., software or researcher imputation error). Such errors are shown to have a relevant impact on model outputs. So far a comprehensive framework to deal wit

  10. Models of Teaching: Indicators Influencing Teachers' Perception of Pedagogical Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordyke, Alison Michelle

    2011-01-01

    The models of teaching are systematic tools that allow teachers to vary their classroom pedagogical practices to meet the needs of all learners in their classroom. This study was designed to determine key factors that influence teachers' decisions when determining a model of teaching for classroom instruction and to identify how teacher training…

  11. Four essays on modeling brand choice and brand loyalty

    OpenAIRE

    Silberhorn, Nadja

    2010-01-01

    Die vorliegende Arbeit besteht aus vier Aufsätzen, die sich mit der Modellierung von Markenwahlverhalten und Markentreue beschäftigen. Der erste Aufsatz gibt eine Einführung in das Nested Logit Modell und weist auf die Existenz von zwei unterschiedlichen Spezifikationen hin. Das utility maximization nested logit (UMNL) und das non-normalized nested logit (NNNL) Modell besitzen unterschiedliche Eigenschaften, die die Schätzergebnisse beeinflussen. Mit einer Simulationsstudie werden die Konsequ...

  12. Probabilistic models for qualitative choice behavior : an introduction

    OpenAIRE

    Dagsvik, John K.

    2000-01-01

    Preface: The econometric discipline has been criticized for being too similar to mathematical statistics and only to a limited degree linked to formalized theoretical models. This is particularly the case as regards formulation and specification of the stochastic elements in econometric models. Ragnar Frisch, who is known to be the originator of econometrics, expressed both in theory and practice an opposite ideal; namely econometrics as an almost symbiotic blend of statistical...

  13. Gaze data reveal distinct choice processes underlying model-based and model-free reinforcement learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konovalov, Arkady; Krajbich, Ian

    2016-01-01

    Organisms appear to learn and make decisions using different strategies known as model-free and model-based learning; the former is mere reinforcement of previously rewarded actions and the latter is a forward-looking strategy that involves evaluation of action-state transition probabilities. Prior work has used neural data to argue that both model-based and model-free learners implement a value comparison process at trial onset, but model-based learners assign more weight to forward-looking computations. Here using eye-tracking, we report evidence for a different interpretation of prior results: model-based subjects make their choices prior to trial onset. In contrast, model-free subjects tend to ignore model-based aspects of the task and instead seem to treat the decision problem as a simple comparison process between two differentially valued items, consistent with previous work on sequential-sampling models of decision making. These findings illustrate a problem with assuming that experimental subjects make their decisions at the same prescribed time. PMID:27511383

  14. Obligatory Effort [Hishtadlut] as an Explanatory Model: A Critique of Reproductive Choice and Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teman, Elly; Ivry, Tsipy; Goren, Heela

    2016-06-01

    Studies on reproductive technologies often examine women's reproductive lives in terms of choice and control. Drawing on 48 accounts of procreative experiences of religiously devout Jewish women in Israel and the US, we examine their attitudes, understandings and experiences of pregnancy, reproductive technologies and prenatal testing. We suggest that the concept of hishtadlut-"obligatory effort"-works as an explanatory model that organizes Haredi women's reproductive careers and their negotiations of reproductive technologies. As an elastic category with negotiable and dynamic boundaries, hishtadlut gives ultra-orthodox Jewish women room for effort without the assumption of control; it allows them to exercise discretion in relation to medical issues without framing their efforts in terms of individual choice. Haredi women hold themselves responsible for making their obligatory effort and not for pregnancy outcomes. We suggest that an alternative paradigm to autonomous choice and control emerges from cosmological orders where reproductive duties constitute "obligatory choices." PMID:26906343

  15. On Latent Change Model Choice in Longitudinal Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raykov, Tenko; Zajacova, Anna

    2012-01-01

    An interval estimation procedure for proportion of explained observed variance in latent curve analysis is discussed, which can be used as an aid in the process of choosing between linear and nonlinear models. The method allows obtaining confidence intervals for the R[squared] indexes associated with repeatedly followed measures in longitudinal…

  16. Integrating economic and psychological insights in binary choice models with social interactions

    CERN Document Server

    Ostasiewicz, K; Magnuszewski, P; Radosz, A; Sendzimir, J; Tyc, M H; Goliczewski, Piotr; Magnuszewski, Piotr; Ostasiewicz, Katarzyna; Radosz, Andrzej; Sendzimir, Jan; Tyc, Michal H.

    2006-01-01

    We investigate a class of binary choice models with social interactions. We propose a unifying perspective that integrates economic models using a utility function and psychological models using an impact function. A general approach for analyzing the equilibrium structure of these models within mean-field approximation is developed. It is shown that within a mean-field approach both the utility function and the impact function models are equivalent to threshold models. The interplay between heterogeneity and randomness in model formulation is discussed. A general framework is applied in a number of examples leading to some well-known models but also showing the possibility of more complex dynamics related to multiple equilibria. Our synthesis can provide a basis for many practical applications extending the scope of binary choice models.

  17. Operator Choice Modeling for Collaborative UAV Visual Search Tasks

    OpenAIRE

    Bertuccelli, Luca F.; Cummings, M.L.

    2011-01-01

    Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) provide unprecedented access to imagery of possible ground targets of interest in real time. The availability of this imagery is expected to increase with envisaged future missions of one operator controlling multiple UAVs. This research investigates decision models that can be used to develop assistive decision support for UAV operators involved in these complex search missions. Previous human-in-the-loop experiments have shown that operator detection probabil...

  18. Application of a Multidimensional Nested Logit Model to Multiple-Choice Test Items

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolt, Daniel M.; Wollack, James A.; Suh, Youngsuk

    2012-01-01

    Nested logit models have been presented as an alternative to multinomial logistic models for multiple-choice test items (Suh and Bolt in "Psychometrika" 75:454-473, 2010) and possess a mathematical structure that naturally lends itself to evaluating the incremental information provided by attending to distractor selection in scoring. One potential…

  19. Decision-Tree Models of Categorization Response Times, Choice Proportions, and Typicality Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…

  20. A Stochastic Route Choice Model for Car Travellers in the Copenhagen Region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Otto Anker; Frederiksen, Rasmus Dyhr; Daly, A.

    2002-01-01

    The paper presents a large-scale stochastic road traffic assignment model for the Copenhagen Region. The model considers several classes of passenger cars (different trip purposes), vans and trucks, each with its own utility function on which route choices are based. The utility functions include...

  1. A discrete choice model with social interactions; with an application to high school teen behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.R. Soetevent; P. Kooreman

    2007-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete-choice interaction model with a finite number of agents. We characterize its equilibrium properties - in particular the correspondence between interaction strength, number of agents, and the set of equilibria - and propose to estimate the model by means of simulation

  2. Feasibility/Desirability Games for Normal Form Games, Choice Models and Evolutionary Games

    OpenAIRE

    Lescanne, Pierre

    2009-01-01

    17 pages An abstraction of normal form games is proposed, called Feasibility/Desirability Games (or FD Games in short). FD Games can be seen from three points of view: as a new presentation of games in which Nash equilibria can be found, as choice models in microeconomics or as a model of evolution in games.

  3. Model Choice and Sample Size in Item Response Theory Analysis of Aphasia Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hula, William D.; Fergadiotis, Gerasimos; Martin, Nadine

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify the most appropriate item response theory (IRT) measurement model for aphasia tests requiring 2-choice responses and to determine whether small samples are adequate for estimating such models. Method: Pyramids and Palm Trees (Howard & Patterson, 1992) test data that had been collected from…

  4. A discrete choice model with social interactions : an analysis of high school teen behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooreman, Peter; Soetevent, Adriaan

    2002-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete choice model that explicitly allows for endogenous social interactions. We analyze the issues of multiple equilibria, statistical coherency, and estimation of the model by means of simulation methods. In an empirical application, we analyze a data set containing info

  5. Behavioural Models for Route Choice of Passengers in Multimodal Public Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anderson, Marie Karen

    /egress characteristics, waiting time, in-vehicle travel time, and transfer characteristics. Moreover, travellers’ characteristics and trip purposes enrich the model and provide insight into the preference structures of different travellers with different motivations for travelling, and finally the study indicates that......The subject of this thesis is behavioural models for route choice of passengers in multimodal public transport networks. While research in sustainable transport has dedicated much attention toward the determinants of choice between car and sustainable travel options, it has devoted less attention...... to increase their attractiveness with respect to the car. Accordingly, this PhD thesis faces the multi-faceted challenge of modelling route choices of travellers moving in a metropolitan multimodal network. The analysis focuses on revealed preferences data collected for the multimodal network of the...

  6. Modeling anger and aggressive driving behavior in a dynamic choice-latent variable model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danaf, Mazen; Abou-Zeid, Maya; Kaysi, Isam

    2015-02-01

    This paper develops a hybrid choice-latent variable model combined with a Hidden Markov model in order to analyze the causes of aggressive driving and forecast its manifestations accordingly. The model is grounded in the state-trait anger theory; it treats trait driving anger as a latent variable that is expressed as a function of individual characteristics, or as an agent effect, and state anger as a dynamic latent variable that evolves over time and affects driving behavior, and that is expressed as a function of trait anger, frustrating events, and contextual variables (e.g., geometric roadway features, flow conditions, etc.). This model may be used in order to test measures aimed at reducing aggressive driving behavior and improving road safety, and can be incorporated into micro-simulation packages to represent aggressive driving. The paper also presents an application of this model to data obtained from a driving simulator experiment performed at the American University of Beirut. The results derived from this application indicate that state anger at a specific time period is significantly affected by the occurrence of frustrating events, trait anger, and the anger experienced at the previous time period. The proposed model exhibited a better goodness of fit compared to a similar simple joint model where driving behavior and decisions are expressed as a function of the experienced events explicitly and not the dynamic latent variable. PMID:25460097

  7. Modeling energy technology choices. Which investment analysis tools are appropriate?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A variety of tools from modern investment theory appear to hold promise for unraveling observed energy technology investment behavior that often appears anomalous when analyzed using traditional investment analysis methods. This paper reviews the assumptions and important insights of the investment theories most commonly suggested as candidates for explaining the apparent ''energy technology investment paradox''. The applicability of each theory is considered in the light of important aspects of energy technology investment problems, such as sunk costs, uncertainty and imperfect information. The theories addressed include the capital asset pricing model, the arbitrage pricing theory, and the theory of irreversible investment. Enhanced net present value methods are also considered. (author)

  8. Improving behavioral realism in hybrid energy-economy models using discrete choice studies of personal transportation decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hybrid energy-economy models combine top-down and bottom-up approaches to explore behaviorally realistic responses to technology-focused policies. This research uses empirically derived discrete choice models to inform key behavioral parameters in CIMS, a hybrid model. The discrete choice models are estimated for vehicle and commuting decisions from a survey of 1150 Canadians. With the choice models integrated into CIMS, we simulate carbon taxes, gasoline vehicle disincentives, and single occupancy vehicle disincentives to show how different policy levers can motivate technological change. We also use the empirical basis for the choice models to portray uncertainty in technological change, costs, and emissions. (author)

  9. Removing Specification Errors from the Usual Formulation of Binary Choice Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.A.V.B. Swamy

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available We develop a procedure for removing four major specification errors from the usual formulation of binary choice models. The model that results from this procedure is different from the conventional probit and logit models. This difference arises as a direct consequence of our relaxation of the usual assumption that omitted regressors constituting the error term of a latent linear regression model do not introduce omitted regressor biases into the coefficients of the included regressors.

  10. A Structural Model with Discrete-Choice Variables for Predicting Enroute Behavior under ATIS

    OpenAIRE

    Adler, Jeffrey L.; Golob, Thomas F.; McNally, Michael G.

    1993-01-01

    Increasing efforts in Advanced Traveler Information Systems has emphasized the need to develop more robust models of enroute driver behavior. The complexity in modeling driver behavior stems from the need to capture the day-to-day dynamics of choice, model diversion and active information acquisition, and account for individual preferences and needs. Previous papers by the authors discussed a conflict arousal methodology for modeling driver behavior in the presence of real-time information. I...

  11. Immigrant Benefit Receipt: Sensitivity to the Choice of Survey years and Model Specification.

    OpenAIRE

    Crossley, T.F.; McDonald, J. T.; Worswick, C.

    1999-01-01

    Receipt of unemployment insurance by immigrant men and social assistance by immigrant families are analysed using thirteen surveys from Canada. Estimates from a cohort fixed effects model are found to be sensitive to the choice of survey years. This is due to the mis-specification of the fixed effects model which is rejected when tested against a model allowing for separate year-since-migration effects by arrival cohort. The estimates from the more general model provide little evidence of hig...

  12. Decisionmaking between multiattribute choice alternatives : a model of spatial shopping-behaviour using conjoint measurements

    OpenAIRE

    Timmermans, HJP Harry; Heijden, van der, C.A.M.; Westerveld, J Hans

    1984-01-01

    In this paper the authors are concerned with the application of conjoint measurement models to predict consumer choice of shopping centres. First, conjoint measurement models are discussed in the context of the development of spatial shopping-models. Next, the conceptual framework underlying the model and conjoint measurement are discussed. The second part of the paper describes an application of the methodology. Conjoint measurement is used to estimate consumer utility functions and a multiv...

  13. Measuring Willingness-To-Pay in Discrete Choice Models with Semi- Parametric Techniques

    OpenAIRE

    Garcia, Pablo M

    2005-01-01

    It is usual to estimate willingness-to-pay in discrete choice models through Logit models –or their expanded versions-. Nevertheless, these models have very restrictive distributional assumptions. This paper is intended to examine the above mentioned issue and to propose an alternative estimation using semi-parametric techniques (through Simple Index Models). Furthermore, this paper introduces an empirical application of willingness-to-pay for improved subway travel times in the City of Bueno...

  14. Modeling of Intercity Travel Mode Choice Behavior for Non-Business Trips within Libya

    OpenAIRE

    Manssour A. Abdulsalam Bin Miskeen; Ahmed Mohamed Alhodairi; Riza Atiq Abdullah Bin O.K. Rahmat

    2014-01-01

    This study is pioneer in investigating mode-choice behavior of inter-city traveler for non-business trips in Libya, for this we have successfully developed and validated disaggregate behavioral inter-city non-business travel mode choice model, based on a binary logit structure. Four major inter-city corridors in Libya were the source of the data required for the development of the model. Data was collected based on interviews with 576 respondents. Majority of these data (nearly two-thirds) we...

  15. Applied welfare economics with discrete choice models: implications of theory for empirical specification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Batley, Richard; Ibáñez Rivas, Juan Nicolás

    2013-01-01

    was the link between discrete choice and welfare, which established a basis for applying RUM to public policy analysis, and paved the way for the plethora of applications which have been witnessed over the last 30 years. It will be helpful to clarify precisely what we mean by ‘discrete choice’, since......The apparatus of the Random Utility Model (RUM) first emerged in the early 1960s, with Marschak (1960) and Block and Marschak (1960) translating models originally developed for discriminant analysis in psychophysics (Thurstone, 1927) to the alternative domain of discrete choice analysis in...

  16. Understanding the Effect of Baseline Modeling Implementation Choices on Analysis of Demand Response Performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    University of California, Berkeley; Addy, Nathan; Kiliccote, Sila; Mathieu, Johanna; Callaway, Duncan S.

    2012-06-13

    Accurate evaluation of the performance of buildings participating in Demand Response (DR) programs is critical to the adoption and improvement of these programs. Typically, we calculate load sheds during DR events by comparing observed electric demand against counterfactual predictions made using statistical baseline models. Many baseline models exist and these models can produce different shed calculations. Moreover, modelers implementing the same baseline model can make different modeling implementation choices, which may affect shed estimates. In this work, using real data, we analyze the effect of different modeling implementation choices on shed predictions. We focused on five issues: weather data source, resolution of data, methods for determining when buildings are occupied, methods for aligning building data with temperature data, and methods for power outage filtering. Results indicate sensitivity to the weather data source and data filtration methods as well as an immediate potential for automation of methods to choose building occupied modes.

  17. Approximate group context tree: applications to dynamic programming and dynamic choice models

    CERN Document Server

    Belloni, Alexandre

    2011-01-01

    The paper considers a variable length Markov chain model associated with a group of stationary processes that share the same context tree but potentially different conditional probabilities. We propose a new model selection and estimation method, develop oracle inequalities and model selection properties for the estimator. These results also provide conditions under which the use of the group structure can lead to improvements in the overall estimation. Our work is also motivated by two methodological applications: discrete stochastic dynamic programming and dynamic discrete choice models. We analyze the uniform estimation of the value function for dynamic programming and the uniform estimation of average dynamic marginal effects for dynamic discrete choice models accounting for possible imperfect model selection. We also derive the typical behavior of our estimator when applied to polynomially $\\beta$-mixing stochastic processes. For parametric models, we derive uniform rate of convergence for the estimation...

  18. Closing the gap between behavior and models in route choice: The role of spatiotemporal constraints and latent traits in choice set formation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    not account for individual-related spatiotemporal constraints. This paper reduces the gap by proposing a route choice model incorporating spatiotemporal constraints and latent traits. The proposed approach combines stochastic route generation with a latent variable semi-compensatory model representing...

  19. A discrete-continuous choice model of climate change impacts on energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper estimates a discrete-continuous fuel choice model in order to explore climate impacts on the energy sector. The model is estimated on a national data set of firms and households. The results reveal that actors switch from oil in cold climates to electricity and natural gas in warm climates and that fuel-specific expenditures follow a U-shaped relationship with respect to temperature. The model implies that warming will increase American energy expenditures, reflecting a sizable welfare damage

  20. A dynamic choice model of hybrid behavior in the attribute-space

    OpenAIRE

    Ladr??n de Guevara, Antonio

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents a dynamic choice model in the attribute space considering rational consumers that discount the future. In light of the evidence of several state-dependence patterns, the model is further extended by considering a utility function that allows for the different types of behavior described in the literature: pure inertia, pure variety seeking and hybrid. The model presents a stationary consumption pattern that can be inertial, where the consumer only buys ...

  1. Business Models and Market Entry Mode Choice of Small Software Firms

    OpenAIRE

    Ojala, Arto; Tyrväinen, Pasi

    2006-01-01

    So far the critical choice of the entry mode for a target country has been examined ignoring the special features of firms. Particularly, the impact of the wide variation of business models of software firms has been ignored. This multi-case study investigates the relation between the business model and the entry mode of eight software firms. The results imply that the product strategy and the service and implementation model of a software firm are closely connected to the entr...

  2. Rational inattention to discrete choices: a new foundation for the multinomial logit model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Matějka, Filip; McKay, A.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 105, č. 1 (2015), s. 272-298. ISSN 0002-8282 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : discrete choice behavior * rational inattention * multinomial logit model Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 3.673, year: 2014

  3. Rational inattention to discrete choices: a new foundation for the multinomial logit model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Matějka, Filip; McKay, A.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 105, č. 1 (2015), s. 272-298. ISSN 0002-8282 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GPP402/11/P236 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : discrete choice behavior * rational inattention * multinomial logit model Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 3.673, year: 2014

  4. Stochastic user equilibrium with equilibrated choice sets: Part I - Model formulations under alternative distributions and restrictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Watling, David Paul; Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær; Prato, Carlo Giacomo;

    2015-01-01

    advantages of the two principles, namely the definition of unused routes in DUE and of mis-perception in SUE, such that the resulting choice sets of used routes are equilibrated. Two model families are formulated to address this issue: the first is a general version of SUE permitting bounded and discrete...

  5. A Regime Switching Model of Schooling Choice as a Job Search Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Hyun Shin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a regime switching model of schooling choice as a job search process. We adopt a two-state Markov process and the derived coupled Bellman equations are solved by seeking the root of an auxiliary algebraic equation. Some numerical examples are also considered.

  6. A Research Brief: A Novel Characteristic of Role Model Choice by Black Male College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, B. J.; Davis, R.; Harris, A.; Brown, K.; Wood, P.; Jones, D. R.; Spencer, S.; Nelson, L.; Brown, J.; Waddell, T.; Jones, C. B.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of the present research brief is to report a novel characteristic of role model choice that may be unreported in the literature for black males and to assess this finding in relation to perceived attractiveness of self and a member of the opposite sex. The study found that the proportion of males choosing themselves as their own role…

  7. Momentous Choices: Testing nonstandard decision models in health and housing markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Filko (Martin)

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ During more than half a century, several strands of research contributed to the development of decision theory. The standard normative model for choice under uncertainty – expected utility – was given a foundation by von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944) and Savage (1954).

  8. Evaluation of Financial Liberalization : A General Equilibrium Model with Constrained Occupation Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Gine, Xavier; Townsend, Robert M.

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to assess both the aggregate growth effects and the distributional consequences of financial liberalization as observed in Thailand from 1976 to 1996. A general equilibrium occupational choice model with two sectors, one without intermediation, and the other with borrowing and lending, is taken to Thai data. Key parameters of the production technology and the...

  9. Probabilistic choice models in health-state valuation research: background, theories, assumptions and applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arons, A.M.M.; Krabbe, P.F.M.

    2013-01-01

    Interest is rising in measuring subjective health outcomes, such as treatment outcomes that are not directly quantifiable (functional disability, symptoms, complaints, side effects and health-related quality of life). Health economists in particular have applied probabilistic choice models in the ar

  10. Probabilistic choice models in health-state valuation research : background, theories, assumptions and applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arons, Alexander M M; Krabbe, Paul F M

    2013-01-01

    Interest is rising in measuring subjective health outcomes, such as treatment outcomes that are not directly quantifiable (functional disability, symptoms, complaints, side effects and health-related quality of life). Health economists in particular have applied probabilistic choice models in the ar

  11. Multi-choice multi-objective mathematical programming model for integrated production planning: a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biswal, M. P.; Acharya, S.

    2013-09-01

    This article develops a multi-choice multi-objective linear programming model in order to solve an integrated production planning problem of a steel plant. The aim of the integrated production planning problem is to integrate the planning sub-functions into a single planning operation. The sub-functions are formulated by considering the capacity of different units of the plant, cost of raw materials from various territories, demands of customers in different geographical locations, time constraint for delivery the products, production cost and production rate at different stages of production process. Departure cost is also considered in the formulation of mathematical programming model. Some of the parameters are decided from a set of possible choices, therefore such parameters are considered as multi-choice type. Multi-choice mathematical programming problem cannot be solved directly. Therefore an equivalent multi-objective mathematical programming model is established in order to find the optimal solution of the problem. Computation of the mathematical programming model is performed with the practical production data of a plant to study the methodology.

  12. Quantum Cournot equilibrium for the Hotelling-Smithies model of product choice

    CERN Document Server

    Rahaman, Ramij; Basu, B

    2012-01-01

    This paper demonstrates the quantization of a spatial Cournot duopoly model with product choice, a two stage game focusing on non-cooperation in locations and quantities. With quantization, the players can access a continuous set of strategies, using continuous variable quantum mechanical approach. The presence of quantum entanglement in the initial state identifies a quantity equilibrium for every location pair choice with any transport cost. Also higher profit is obtained by the firms at Nash equilibrium. Adoption of quantum strategies rewards us by the existence of a larger quantum strategic space at equilibrium.

  13. Choice between semi-parametric estimators of Markov and non-Markov multi-state models from coarsened observations : Choice between semi-parametric estimators of Markov and non-Markov multi-state models

    OpenAIRE

    Commenges, Daniel; Joly, Pierre; Gégout-Petit, Anne; Liquet, Benoit

    2007-01-01

    We consider models based on multivariate counting processes, including multi-state models. These models are specified semi-parametrically by a set of functions and real parameters. We consider inference for these models based on coarsened observations, focusing on families of smooth estimators such as produced by penalized likelihood. An important issue is the choice of model structure, for instance the choice between a Markov and some non-Markov models. We define in a general context the exp...

  14. Belief in the "free choice" model of homosexuality: a correlate of homophobia in registered nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackwell, Christopher W

    2007-01-01

    A great amount of social science research has supported the positive correlation between heterosexuals' belief in the free choice model of homosexuality and homophobia. Heterosexuals who believe gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender (GLBT) persons consciously choose their sexual orientation and practice a lifestyle conducive to that choice are much more likely to possess discriminatory, homophobic, homonegative, and heterosexist beliefs. In addition, these individuals are less likely to support gay rights initiatives such as nondiscrimination policies or same-sex partner benefits in the workplace or hate crime enhancement legislation inclusive of GLBT persons. Although researchers have demonstrated this phenomenon in the general population, none have specifically assessed it in the nursing workforce. The purpose of this study was to examine registered nurses' overall levels of homophobia and attitudes toward a workplace policy protective of gays and lesbians. These variables were then correlated with belief in the free choice model of homosexuality. Results indicated that belief in the free choice model of homosexuality was the strongest predictor of homophobia in nurses. Implications for nursing leadership and management, nursing education, and future research are discussed. PMID:19042903

  15. Complex systems model of dietary choice with implications for improving diets and promoting vegetarianism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, C V

    1999-09-01

    An important step toward improving nutrition and promoting vegetarianism in the general population is to understand how consumers make dietary choices. Researchers from many clinical and social sciences are interested in dietary choice but have not combined their research into a comprehensive model to explain consumer actions. No one model has offered a good explanation for the fact that, although many people successfully change their diet significantly (often toward health-improving, plant-based diets) and are happy with the change, the public and health professionals often perceive dietary change as being difficult and unlikely to succeed. I have termed these observations "the paradox of dietary change." The present computer model uses the emerging science of complex systems analysis, which offers an intuitive method for studying evidence about dietary choice from many fields, including public health, clinical science, economics, sociology, marketing, and genetics, and for combining individual choice with social interaction. The results suggest an explanation for the paradox and methods for helping society shift toward healthier and more plant-based diets. In particular, they suggest how and why major changes might be easier to make than incremental ones, and why this makes dietary change seem more difficult to consumers than it actually is. PMID:10479239

  16. Of Songs and Men: a Model for Multiple Choice with Herding

    CERN Document Server

    Borghesi, C; Borghesi, Christian; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

    2006-01-01

    We propose a generic model for multiple choice situations in the presence of herding and compare it with recent empirical results from a Web-based music market experiment. The model predicts a phase transition between a weak imitation phase and a strong imitation, `fashion' phase, where choices are driven by peer pressure and the ranking of individual preferences is strongly distorted at the aggregate level. The model can be calibrated to reproduce the main experimental results of Salganik et al. (Science, 311, pp. 854-856 (2006)); we show in particular that the value of the social influence parameter can be estimated from the data. In one of the experimental situation, this value is found to be close to the critical value of the model.

  17. The relation of secondary student's career choice readiness to a six-phase model of career decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Hirschi, Andreas; Läge, Damian

    2007-01-01

    Based on common aspects of recent models of career decision-making (CDM) a sixphase model of CDM for secondary students is presented and empirically evaluated. The study tested the hypothesis that students who are in later phases possess more career choice readiness and consider different numbers of career alternatives. 266 Swiss secondary students completed measures tapping phase of CDM, career choice readiness, and number of considered career options. Career choice readiness showed an incre...

  18. A Choice Modelling Survey of Community Attitudes to Improvements in Environmental Quality in NSW Catchments

    OpenAIRE

    Kasia Mazur; Jeff Bennett

    2009-01-01

    The survey was designed to estimate environmental values suitable for integration into MOSAIC, a bio-economic model for catchment and farm level planning. Local residents, as well as distant rural and distant urban communities, were surveyed in three NSW catchments (Lachlan, Namoi and Hawkesbury-Nepean) using choice modelling (CM). The survey aimed to find out respondents’ attitudes about, and preferences for, potential natural resource management (NRM) improvements. In total, 3,997 responses...

  19. Modelling Reference-Dependent and Labelling Effects in Consumers’ Functional Food Choices

    OpenAIRE

    Zou, Ning Ning (Helen); Hobbs, Jill E.

    2008-01-01

    This paper examines the reference-dependent and labelling effects when consumers make choices about functional foods, and explores how changes in reference points could alter individuals’ preferences. Functional food (probiotic yogurt) and regular food (regular yogurt) are used as examples to explore the potential reference-dependent effects and labelling effects. A consumer utility model with reference point effects is developed. The paper also explores how to model the effects of different ...

  20. Modelling Reference-Dependent and Labelling Effects in Consumers’ Functional Food Choices

    OpenAIRE

    Zou, Ning Ning (Helen)

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines the reference-dependent and labelling effects when consumers make choices about functional foods, and explores how changes in reference points could alter individuals’ preferences. Functional food (Omega 3 milk) and regular food (regular milk) are used as examples to explore the potential reference-dependent effects and labelling effects. A consumer utility model with reference point effects is developed. The paper also explores how to model the effects of different labell...

  1. A Two-State Model of Purchase Incidence and Brand Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Randolph E. Bucklin; James M. Lattin

    1991-01-01

    The authors develop and test a probabilistic model of purchase incidence and brand choice for frequently purchased consumer products. The model incorporates two ways of shopping in a category. Shoppers who have planned their purchasing (made a decision before entering the store) do not process in-store information and show no response to point-of-purchase promotions. Consumers who have not planned their purchasing in a category (deciding at the point of purchase) may process in-store informat...

  2. A discrete choice model with social interactions; with an application to high school teen behavior.

    OpenAIRE

    Adriaan R. Soetevent; Kooreman, Peter

    2007-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete choice interaction model with a finite number of agents. We characterize its equilibrium properties - in particular the correspondence between the interaction strength, the number of agents, and the set of equilibria - and propose to estimate the model by means of simulation methods. In an empirical application, we analyze the individual behavior of some 8000 high school teenagers from almost 500 different school classes. We find endogenous social interaction ...

  3. Efficient simulation of diffusion-based choice RT models on CPU and GPU.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdonck, Stijn; Meers, Kristof; Tuerlinckx, Francis

    2016-03-01

    In this paper, we present software for the efficient simulation of a broad class of linear and nonlinear diffusion models for choice RT, using either CPU or graphical processing unit (GPU) technology. The software is readily accessible from the popular scripting languages MATLAB and R (both 64-bit). The speed obtained on a single high-end GPU is comparable to that of a small CPU cluster, bringing standard statistical inference of complex diffusion models to the desktop platform. PMID:25761391

  4. Reprint of "Acquisition of choice in concurrent chains: Assessing the cumulative decision model".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, Randolph C

    2016-06-01

    Concurrent chains is widely used to study pigeons' choice between terminal links that can vary in delay, magnitude, or probability of reinforcement. We review research on the acquisition of choice in this procedure. Acquisition has been studied with a variety of research designs, and some studies have incorporated no-food trials to allow for timing and choice to be observed concurrently. Results show that: Choice can be acquired rapidly within sessions when terminal links change unpredictably; under steady-state conditions, acquisition depends on both initial- and terminal-link schedules; and initial-link responding is mediated by learning about the terminal-link stimulus-reinforcer relations. The cumulative decision model (CDM) proposed by Christensen and Grace (2010) and Grace and McLean (2006, 2015) provides a good description of within-session acquisition, and correctly predicts the effects of initial and terminal-link schedules in steady-state designs (Grace, 2002a). Questions for future research include how abrupt shifts in preference within individual sessions and temporal control of terminal-link responding can be modeled. PMID:27150444

  5. Acquisition of choice in concurrent chains: Assessing the cumulative decision model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, Randolph C

    2016-05-01

    Concurrent chains is widely used to study pigeons' choice between terminal links that can vary in delay, magnitude, or probability of reinforcement. We review research on the acquisition of choice in this procedure. Acquisition has been studied with a variety of research designs, and some studies have incorporated no-food trials to allow for timing and choice to be observed concurrently. Results show that: Choice can be acquired rapidly within sessions when terminal links change unpredictably; under steady-state conditions, acquisition depends on both initial- and terminal-link schedules; and initial-link responding is mediated by learning about the terminal-link stimulus-reinforcer relations. The cumulative decision model (CDM) proposed by Christensen and Grace (2010) and Grace and McLean (2006, 2015) provides a good description of within-session acquisition, and correctly predicts the effects of initial and terminal-link schedules in steady-state designs (Grace, 2002a). Questions for future research include how abrupt shifts in preference within individual sessions and temporal control of terminal-link responding can be modeled. PMID:27005579

  6. Modeling of Intercity Travel Mode Choice Behavior for Non-Business Trips within Libya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manssour A. Abdulsalam Bin Miskeen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study is pioneer in investigating mode-choice behavior of inter-city traveler for non-business trips in Libya, for this we have successfully developed and validated disaggregate behavioral inter-city non-business travel mode choice model, based on a binary logit structure. Four major inter-city corridors in Libya were the source of the data required for the development of the model. Data was collected based on interviews with 576 respondents. Majority of these data (nearly two-thirds were used for calibrating the model, whereas, the remaining data were used for validating the model. This study, which is the first of its kind in Libya, investigates the intercity traveler’s mode-choice behavior for non-business trips. The proposed model elucidates car/air transport users’ behavior and investigates their responses to the scenario of enhancing intercity transport. We have also investigated the prospect of car drivers shifting to air transport, based on a case of a diminution in airplane out-of-vehicle travel time (access time to airport, waiting time at airport and egress time from airport. We deem that the findings of this study will facilitate all the levels of decision-makers to sensibly allocate resources for the enhancement of air transportation

  7. Modelling the Choices of Romanian Consumers in the Context of the Current Economic Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madalina Balau

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Consumption is a key factor of the nowadays post-industrial society, while it is a real engine ofproduction, diversity of offer and demand, and motive for innovation. On the other side, consumption can beharmful to the same society and to environment if it develops in an un-sustainable way. That is why,understanding the consumer behaviour is of great importance not only to satisfy his or her needs but also tofind appropriate means to educate people and issue policies that can lead to sustainable consumption anddevelopment. The paper presents some models and theories regarding the consumer behaviour and proposesmeans to influence consumption characteristics and habits of people. The modelling approach isdeterministic, using Expectancy-Value theory, taking into account not only explicit (rational choices but alsohabits or incentives (non-rational choices, in a weighted quantitative model. The novelty of the approachconsists in the way non-rational choices are taken into consideration for the existing model, and on how it isused in determining directions for sustainable consumption. The study is developed on public data regardingconsumers of general goods in Romania.

  8. Interactive Web service choice-making based on extended QoS model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Quality of Service (QoS) is a key factor in Web service advertising, choosing and runtime monitoring. Web service QoS is multi-faceted, fuzzy and dynamic. Current researches focus on implementation level performance assurance, ignoring domain specific or application level metrics which are also very important to service users. Industry Web service standards lack QoS expression. The support for QoS based service choice-making is very limited. We proposed an extended Web service QoS model based on configurable fuzzy synthetic evaluation system. Web service QoS is evaluated dynamically according to the service context. A QoS requirement description model is also given for service QoS requirement definition. An interactive Web service choice-making process is described, which takes QoS as a key factor when choosing from functionally equivalent services.

  9. An Improved Approximate-Bayesian Model-choice Method for Estimating Shared Evolutionary History

    OpenAIRE

    Oaks, Jamie R.

    2014-01-01

    Background To understand biological diversification, it is important to account for large-scale processes that affect the evolutionary history of groups of co-distributed populations of organisms. Such events predict temporally clustered divergences times, a pattern that can be estimated using genetic data from co-distributed species. I introduce a new approximate-Bayesian method for comparative phylogeographical model-choice that estimates the temporal distribution of divergences across taxa...

  10. articles: Amenities and urban residential structure: An amenity-embedded model of residential choice

    OpenAIRE

    Cheol-Joo Cho

    2001-01-01

    The basic model of residential choice, which has been established by generalizing Von Thünen's concept to an urban context, states that the equilibrium structure of residential land use is determined by the trade-off between accessibility and space. The willingness to sacrifice space for accessibility differs between households and depends on household income. The equilibrium land use is the outcome of the interplay between the income elasticity of space consumption and the income elasticity ...

  11. Disaggregating consumer demands for organic and genetically modified foods using the Choice Modelling technique

    OpenAIRE

    Donaghy, Peter; Rolfe, John; Bennett, Jeffrey W.

    2002-01-01

    Issues concerning consumer demands for genetically modified and organic food remain highly topical in Australia. It is unclear how consumers perceive issues associated with food production such as food safety, environmental impacts or animal welfare. It is also unclear how consumers might value potential changes in those issues. This paper reports on research using the choice modelling technique to estimate and compare consumer demand for genetically modified and organic foods. The case study...

  12. Disaggregating consumer demands for organic and genetically modified foods using the Choice Modelling technique.

    OpenAIRE

    Donaghy, Peter; Rolfe, John; Bennett, Jeffrey W.

    2002-01-01

    Issues concerning consumer demands for genetically modified and organic food remain highly topical in Australia. It is unclear how consumers perceive issues associated with food production such as food safety, environmental impacts or animal welfare. It is also unclear how consumers might value potential changes in those issues. This paper reports on research using the choice modelling technique to estimate and compare consumer demand for genetically modified and organic foods. The case study...

  13. Momentous Choices: Testing nonstandard decision models in health and housing markets

    OpenAIRE

    Filko, Martin

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ During more than half a century, several strands of research contributed to the development of decision theory. The standard normative model for choice under uncertainty – expected utility – was given a foundation by von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944) and Savage (1954). It advised – and expected – reasonable actors to evaluate the consequences of their actions by the weighted sum of their utility, using probabilities of these consequences as weights. Utilities wer...

  14. Modeling the choice of working when the set of job opportunities is latent

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Yun

    2000-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the decision of "working" versus "not working" within a discrete choice framework, where number of available jobs is confined and related to individual characteristics. In this way the market constraint from the demand side is taken into account. We also accommodate the notion of job specific non-pecuniary attributes in the specification of preferences. We apply panel data to estimate the model. To this end a particular estimation method is developed that accounts for...

  15. Effect of model choice and sample size on statistical tolerance limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Statistical tolerance limits are estimates of large (or small) quantiles of a distribution, quantities which are very sensitive to the shape of the tail of the distribution. The exact nature of this tail behavior cannot be ascertained brom small samples, so statistical tolerance limits are frequently computed using a statistical model chosen on the basis of theoretical considerations or prior experience with similar populations. This report illustrates the effects of such choices on the computations

  16. Modeling Mental Health Information Preferences During the Early Adult Years: A Discrete Choice Conjoint Experiment

    OpenAIRE

    Charles E. Cunningham; Walker, John R; Eastwood, John D.; Westra, Henny; Rimas, Heather; Chen, Yvonne; Marcus, Madalyn; Swinson, Richard P.; Bracken, Keyna; ,

    2013-01-01

    Although most young adults with mood and anxiety disorders do not seek treatment, those who are better informed about mental health problems are more likely to use services. The authors used conjoint analysis to model strategies for providing information about anxiety and depression to young adults. Participants (N = 1,035) completed 17 choice tasks presenting combinations of 15 four-level attributes of a mental health information strategy. Latent class analysis yielded 3 segments. The virtua...

  17. Route Choice Model Considering Generalized Travel Cost Based on Game Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Feng Yu-qin; Leng Jun-qiang; Xie Zhong-Yu; Zhang Gui-e; He Yi

    2013-01-01

    This paper aims at testing the influence of emission factors on travelers’ behavior of route choice. The generalized travel cost is defined as the linear weighted sum of emission factors, travel time, and travel time reliability. The relational model of exhaust volume and traffic volume is established using the BPR (Bureau of Public Road) function to calculate the cost of travel regarding emission. The BPR function is used to measure the road segment travel time, while the reliability is used...

  18. Identifying Business Models for Photovoltaic Systems with Storage in the Italian Market: A Discrete Choice Experiment

    OpenAIRE

    Galassi, Veronica; Madlener, Reinhard

    2014-01-01

    The future diffusion of photovoltaic systems relies heavily on the ability of utilities and policy-makers to properly valorize such volatile renewable energy-sources technologies. We conduct a discrete choice experiment to investigate which types of business models for photovoltaic systems could bring the highest utility to the Italian households. Our focus is not just on the costs and benefits of a photovoltaic system, but also on features like system control and maintenance, the duration of...

  19. A model of car ownership and use incorporating quality choice and ownership of multiple cars

    OpenAIRE

    Rouwendal, Jan; Pommer, John

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we develop and estimate a discrete-continuous model for car ownership and use that incorporates quality choice and the decision to own multiple cars. The basic model, used for instance in De Jong (1991), treats all cars as being equal (no differences in quality) and only considers ownership of a single car. In order to introduce quality into the model we assume that the marginal utility of driving is increased by a latent variable (interpreted as quality) that is related to the ...

  20. A Plug-in Hybrid Consumer Choice Model with Detailed Market Segmentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Zhenhong [ORNL; Greene, David L [ORNL

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes a consumer choice model for projecting U.S. demand for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) in competition among 13 light-duty vehicle technologies over the period 2005-2050. New car buyers are disaggregated by region, residential area, attitude toward technology risk, vehicle usage intensity, home parking and work recharging. The nested multinomial logit (NMNL) model of vehicle choice incorporates daily vehicle usage distributions, refueling and recharging availability, technology learning by doing, and diversity of choice among makes and models. Illustrative results are presented for a Base Case, calibrated to the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2009 Reference Updated Case, and an optimistic technology scenario reflecting achievement of U.S. Department of Energy s (DOE s) FreedomCAR goals. PHEV market success is highly dependent on the degree of technological progress assumed. PHEV sales reach one million in 2037 in the Base Case but in 2020 in the FreedomCARGoals Case. In the FreedomCARGoals Case, PHEV cumulative sales reach 1.5 million by 2015. Together with efficiency improvements in other technologies, petroleum use in 2050 is reduced by about 45% from the 2005 level. After technological progress, PHEV s market success appears to be most sensitive to recharging availability, consumers attitudes toward novel echnologies, and vehicle usage intensity. Successful market penetration of PHEVs helps bring down battery costs for electric vehicles (EVs), resulting in a significant EV market share after 2040.

  1. Which Models Can We Trust to Evaluate Consumer Decision Making? Comment on “Choice Inconsistencies among the Elderly”

    OpenAIRE

    Jonathan D. Ketcham; Kuminoff, Nicolai V.; Powers, Christopher A.

    2015-01-01

    Neoclassical and psychological models of consumer behavior often make divergent predictions for the welfare effects of paternalistic policies, leaving wide scope for researchers’ choice of a model to influence their policy conclusions. We develop a framework to reduce this model uncertainty and apply it to administrative data on consumer decision making in Medicare Part D. Consumers’ choices for prescription drug insurance plans can be explained by Abaluck and Gruber’s (AER 2011) model of uti...

  2. Coupled Ising models and interdependent discrete choices under social influence in homogeneous populations

    CERN Document Server

    del Río, Ana Fernández

    2011-01-01

    The use of statistical physics to study problems of social sciences is motivated and its current state of the art briefly reviewed, in particular for the case of discrete choice making. The coupling of two binary choices is studied in some detail, using an Ising model for each of the decision variables (the opinion or choice moments or spins, socioeconomic equivalents to the magnetic moments or spins). Toy models for two different types of coupling are studied analytically and numerically in the mean field (infinite range) approximation. This is equivalent to considering a social influence effect proportional to the fraction of adopters or average magnetisation. In the nonlocal case, the two spin variables are coupled through a Weiss mean field type term. In a socioeconomic context, this can be useful when studying individuals of two different groups, making the same decision under social influence of their own group, when their outcome is affected by the fraction of adopters of the other group. In the local ...

  3. PRO-ECOLOGICAL ACTIONS AND CONSUMER CHOICES IN THE MODEL OF RESPONSIBLE BUSINESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarzyna Olejniczak

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The current farming conditions cause that recent social and environmental aspects of management play an important role for the functioning of modern enterprises. This results from the fact that on the one hand the activities of modern enterprises are determined by the surroundings’ increasing complexity, on the other hand the growing demands of various groups of stakeholders build company’s success based not only on a quest to maximize their profi t, but primarily on taking the responsibility for the consequences of their actions. Additionally, the growing awareness of consumers makes more and more enterprises implement the concept of corporate social responsibility (CSR in their actions. For this reason, it is important to discuss about the actions and choices of consumers in the model of CSR. The aim of this article is to present the results of the research on customers‘s environmentally conscious activities and choices.

  4. A Personal Value-Based Model of College Students' Aptitudes and Expected Choice Behavior Regarding Retailing Careers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shim, Soyeon; Warrington, Patti; Goldsberry, Ellen

    1999-01-01

    A study of 754 retail management students developed a value-based model of career attitude and expected choice behavior. Findings indicate that personal values had an influence on all aspects of retail career attitudes, which then had a direct effect on expected choice behavior. (Contains 55 references.) (Author/JOW)

  5. A Day-to-Day Route Choice Model Based on Reinforcement Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fangfang Wei

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Day-to-day traffic dynamics are generated by individual traveler’s route choice and route adjustment behaviors, which are appropriate to be researched by using agent-based model and learning theory. In this paper, we propose a day-to-day route choice model based on reinforcement learning and multiagent simulation. Travelers’ memory, learning rate, and experience cognition are taken into account. Then the model is verified and analyzed. Results show that the network flow can converge to user equilibrium (UE if travelers can remember all the travel time they have experienced, but which is not necessarily the case under limited memory; learning rate can strengthen the flow fluctuation, but memory leads to the contrary side; moreover, high learning rate results in the cyclical oscillation during the process of flow evolution. Finally, both the scenarios of link capacity degradation and random link capacity are used to illustrate the model’s applications. Analyses and applications of our model demonstrate the model is reasonable and useful for studying the day-to-day traffic dynamics.

  6. Sensitivity of simulated regional Arctic climate to the choice of coupled model domain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitry V. Sein

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The climate over the Arctic has undergone changes in recent decades. In order to evaluate the coupled response of the Arctic system to external and internal forcing, our study focuses on the estimation of regional climate variability and its dependence on large-scale atmospheric and regional ocean circulations. A global ocean–sea ice model with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model and global terrestrial hydrology model. This way of coupling divides the global ocean model setup into two different domains: one coupled, where the ocean and the atmosphere are interacting, and one uncoupled, where the ocean model is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing and runs in a so-called stand-alone mode. Therefore, selecting a specific area for the regional atmosphere implies that the ocean–atmosphere system can develop ‘freely’ in that area, whereas for the rest of the global ocean, the circulation is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing without any feedbacks. Five different coupled setups are chosen for ensemble simulations. The choice of the coupled domains was done to estimate the influences of the Subtropical Atlantic, Eurasian and North Pacific regions on northern North Atlantic and Arctic climate. Our simulations show that the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere model is sensitive to the choice of the modelled area. The different model configurations reproduce differently both the mean climate and its variability. Only two out of five model setups were able to reproduce the Arctic climate as observed under recent climate conditions (ERA-40 Reanalysis. Evidence is found that the main source of uncertainty for Arctic climate variability and its predictability is the North Pacific. The prescription of North Pacific conditions in the regional model leads to significant correlation with observations, even if the whole North Atlantic is within the coupled model domain. However, the inclusion of the

  7. Socio-demographic characteristics affecting sport tourism choices: A structural model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataša Slak Valek

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Effective tourism management in the field of sports tourism requires an understanding of differences in socioeconomic characteristics both within and between different market segments. Objective: In the broad tourism market demographic characteristics have been extensively analyzed for differences in destination choices, however little is known about demographic factors affecting sport tourists' decisions. Methods: A sample of Slovenian sports tourists was analyzed using data from a comprehensive survey of local and outbound tourist activity conducted by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia in 2008. After data weighting the information for 353,783 sports related trips were available for analysis. The research model adopted suggests that four socio-demographic characteristics (gender, age, level of education and income significantly affect a tourist's choice of sports related travel either locally within Slovenia or to a foreign country. Furthermore the destination (local or foreign has an influence on the choice of the type of accommodation selected and the tourist's total expenditure for the trip. For testing the first part of our model (the socio-demographic characteristics effects a linear regression was used, and for the final part of the model (the selection of accommodation type and travel expenditure t-test were applied. Results: The result shows the standardized β regression coefficients are all statistically significant at the .001 level for the tested socio-demographic characteristics and also the overall regression model was statistically significant at .001 level. Conclusions: With these results the study confirmed that all the selected socio-demographic characteristics have a significant influence on the sport-active tourist when choosing between a domestic and foreign tourism destination which in turn affect the type of accommodation chosen and the level of expenditure while travelling.

  8. Integrated Mode Choice, Small Aircraft Demand, and Airport Operations Model User's Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yackovetsky, Robert E. (Technical Monitor); Dollyhigh, Samuel M.

    2004-01-01

    A mode choice model that generates on-demand air travel forecasts at a set of GA airports based on changes in economic characteristics, vehicle performance characteristics such as speed and cost, and demographic trends has been integrated with a model to generate itinerate aircraft operations by airplane category at a set of 3227 airports. Numerous intermediate outputs can be generated, such as the number of additional trips diverted from automobiles and schedule air by the improved performance and cost of on-demand air vehicles. The total number of transported passenger miles that are diverted is also available. From these results the number of new aircraft to service the increased demand can be calculated. Output from the models discussed is in the format to generate the origin and destination traffic flow between the 3227 airports based on solutions to a gravity model.

  9. A Hierarchical Model for Studying Equity and Achievement in the Chilean School Choice System

    OpenAIRE

    Alejandra Mizala; Pilar Romaguera; Carolina Ostoic

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to analyze, using a hierarchical linear model, the degree to which a system of choice, as the one implemented in Chile since the beginning of the 80’s, can promote student achievement and equity in the social distribution of achievement. Using data from a standardized achievement test including 226,860 4tth degree students and 4,949 schools, we investigate the association between students’ socioeconomic status and achievement, within and between schools. We also inves...

  10. Industrial fuel choice analysis model. Volume II. Appendices to model documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-01-08

    Descriptions, documentation, and other information are included in these appendices dealing with industrial fuel choices: Energy Consumption Data Base; Major Fuel Burning Installation Survey; American Boiler Manufacturers Association Data File; Midrange Energy Forecasting System; Projection Method; Capacity Utilization Rates; Nonboiler Characteristics; Boiler Capital and O and M Cost Data; Nonboiler Capital and O and M Cost Data; Approach to Estimating Energy Impacts of the Coal Conversion Regulatory Program; Index or Acronyms.

  11. Relevance Of Utility Maximization In Student University Choice – A Consumption-Based Model For Higher Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric S. SCHWARTZ

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper applies a model of utility-maximization to better understand the university choice process. Student decision-making for university choice is conceptualized as a purchase decision process through which students weigh the costs of colleges or universities they choose against their perceived benefits of attending these institutions. The key issues are the impact of consumer’s preferences, income, tuition, and costs in college decision-making. From this perspective, the paper describes the relationship between utility maximization and educational demand, effects of tuition increases, tuition discounting, and financial aid subsidies on university choice. A decision-making scheme for educational consumption is used in order to identify the stages of the university choice process and to predict the behavior of consumers in the higher education marketplace. The analysis points to the need to better inform students about the cost of postsecondary education which is a highly relevant aspect in the university choice process.

  12. A new model of galaxy formation: How sensitive are predicted galaxy luminosities to the choice of SPS model?

    CERN Document Server

    V.,; Lacey, C G; Baugh, C M; Lagos, C D P; Helly, J; Campbell, D J R

    2013-01-01

    We present a new release of the GALFORM semi-analytical model of galaxy formation and evolution, which exploits a Millennium Simulation-class N-body run performed with the WMAP7 cosmology. We use this new model to study the impact of the choice of stellar population synthesis (SPS) model on the predicted evolution of the galaxy luminosity function. The semi-analytical model is run using seven different SPS models. In each case we obtain the rest-frame luminosity function in the far-ultra-violet, optical and near-infrared (NIR) wavelength ranges. We find that both the predicted rest-frame ultra-violet and optical luminosity function are insensitive to the choice of SPS model. However, we find that the predicted evolution of the rest-frame NIR luminosity function depends strongly on the treatment of the thermally pulsating asymptotic giant branch (TP-AGB) stellar phase in the SPS models, with differences larger than a factor of 2 for model galaxies brighter than K(AB)-5logh<-22 (about L* for 0 < z < 1....

  13. Density-dependence across dispersal stages in a hermaphrodite land snail: insights from discrete choice models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahirel, Maxime; Vardakis, Michalis; Ansart, Armelle; Madec, Luc

    2016-08-01

    Dispersal movements, i.e. movements leading to gene flow, are key behaviours with important, but only partially understood, consequences for the dynamics and evolution of populations. In particular, density-dependent dispersal has been widely described, yet how it is determined by the interaction with individual traits, and whether density effects differ between the three steps of dispersal (departure, transience, and settlement), remains largely unknown. Using a semi-natural landscape, we studied dispersal choices of Cornu aspersum land snails, a species in which negative effects of crowding are well documented, and analysed them using dispersal discrete choice models, a new method allowing the analysis of dispersal decisions by explicitly considering the characteristics of all available alternatives and their interaction with individual traits. Subadults were more dispersive than adults, confirming existing results. In addition, departure and settlement were both density dependent: snails avoided crowded patches at both ends of the dispersal process, and subadults were more reluctant to settle into crowded patches than adults. Moreover, we found support for carry-over effects of release density on subsequent settlement decisions: snails from crowded contexts were more sensitive to density in their subsequent immigration choices. The fact that settlement decisions were informed indicates that costs of prospecting are not as important as previously thought in snails, and/or that snails use alternative ways to collect information, such as indirect social information (e.g. trail following). The observed density-dependent dispersal dynamics may play an important role in the ability of C. aspersum to successfully colonise frequently human-disturbed habitats around the world. PMID:27139427

  14. Modeling the Mental Health Practice Change Preferences of Educators: A Discrete-Choice Conjoint Experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Charles E; Barwick, Melanie; Short, Kathy; Chen, Yvonne; Rimas, Heather; Ratcliffe, Jenna; Mielko, Stephanie

    2014-01-01

    Schools are sometimes slow to adopt evidence-based strategies for improving the mental health outcomes of students. This study used a discrete-choice conjoint experiment to model factors influencing the decision of educators to adopt strategies for improving children's mental health outcomes. A sample of 1,010 educators made choices between hypothetical mental health practice change strategies composed by systematically varying the four levels of 16 practice change attributes. Latent class analysis yielded two segments with different practice change preferences. Both segments preferred small-group workshops, conducted by engaging experts, teaching skills applicable to all students. Participants expressed little interest in Internet options. The support of colleagues, administrators, and unions exerted a strong influence on the practice change choices of both segments. The Change Ready segment, 77.1 % of the sample, was more intent on adopting new strategies to improve the mental health of students. They preferred that schools, rather than the provincial ministry of education, make practice change decisions, coaching was provided to all participants, and participants received post-training follow-up sessions. The Demand Sensitive segment (22.9 %) was less intent on practice change. They preferred that individual teachers make practice change decisions, recommended discretionary coaching, and chose no post-training follow-up support. This study emphasizes the complex social, organizational, and policy context within which educators make practice change decisions. Efforts to disseminate strategies to improve the mental health outcomes of students need to be informed by the preferences of segments of educators who are sensitive to different dimensions of the practice change process. In the absence of a broad consensus of educators, administrators, and unions, potentially successful practice changes are unlikely to be adopted. PMID:24563679

  15. On the choice of statistical models for estimating occurrence and extinction from animal surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorazio, Robert M

    2007-11-01

    In surveys of natural animal populations the number of animals that are present and available to be detected at a sample location is often low, resulting in few or no detections. Low detection frequencies are especially common in surveys of imperiled species; however, the choice of sampling method and protocol also may influence the size of the population that is vulnerable to detection. In these circumstances, probabilities of animal occurrence and extinction will generally be estimated more accurately if the models used in data analysis account for differences in abundance among sample locations and for the dependence between site-specific abundance and detection. Simulation experiments are used to illustrate conditions wherein these types of models can be expected to outperform alternative estimators of population site occupancy and extinction. PMID:18051646

  16. On the choice of statistical models for estimating occurrence and extinction from animal surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorazio, R.M.

    2007-01-01

    In surveys of natural animal populations the number of animals that are present and available to be detected at a sample location is often low, resulting in few or no detections. Low detection frequencies are especially common in surveys of imperiled species; however, the choice of sampling method and protocol also may influence the size of the population that is vulnerable to detection. In these circumstances, probabilities of animal occurrence and extinction will generally be estimated more accurately if the models used in data analysis account for differences in abundance among sample locations and for the dependence between site-specific abundance and detection. Simulation experiments are used to illustrate conditions wherein these types of models can be expected to outperform alternative estimators of population site occupancy and extinction. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

  17. Research on group expandable optimization decision-ms,king model for construction programme choice

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yan Hongyan

    2012-01-01

    Aiming at the decision-making problem of construction programme choice, this paper advanced a new group expandable optimization decision-making model. Various factors were comprehensively considered, and the new multi- attribute evaluation index system was established. Based on the assumption that decision-makers were rational, this pa- per formed a group of rational preferences through extracting the personal preferences pertinently, so the decision-makers position matrix was determined. The decision-makers position matrix integrated values given by group decision-makers to construction programme comprised a matrix, of which the entropy theory for data mining was adopted in this paper to determine the attribute weights. A decision was made by using the extension decision method. Eventually, the feasibility and practicability of the model were verified by the example.

  18. Making Energy-Efficiency and Productivity Investments in Commercial Buildings: Choice of Investment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, D.W.

    2002-05-16

    This study examines the decision to invest in buildings and the types of investment decision rules that may be employed to inform the ''go--no go'' decision. There is a range of decision making tools available to help in investment choices, which range from simple rules of thumb such as payback periods, to life-cycle analysis, to decision theoretic approaches. Payback period analysis tends to point toward lower first costs, whereas life-cycle analysis tends to minimize uncertainties over future events that can affect profitability. We conclude that investment models that integrate uncertainty offer better explanations for the behavior that is observed, i.e., people tend to delay investments in technologies that life-cycle analysis finds cost-effective, and these models also lead to an alternative set of policies targeted at reducing of managing uncertainty.

  19. Does a peer model's task proficiency influence children's solution choice and innovation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Lara A; Kendal, Rachel L; Flynn, Emma G

    2015-11-01

    The current study investigated whether 4- to 6-year-old children's task solution choice was influenced by the past proficiency of familiar peer models and the children's personal prior task experience. Peer past proficiency was established through behavioral assessments of interactions with novel tasks alongside peer and teacher predictions of each child's proficiency. Based on these assessments, one peer model with high past proficiency and one age-, sex-, dominance-, and popularity-matched peer model with lower past proficiency were trained to remove a capsule using alternative solutions from a three-solution artificial fruit task. Video demonstrations of the models were shown to children after they had either a personal successful interaction or no interaction with the task. In general, there was not a strong bias toward the high past-proficiency model, perhaps due to a motivation to acquire multiple methods and the salience of other transmission biases. However, there was some evidence of a model-based past-proficiency bias; when the high past-proficiency peer matched the participants' original solution, there was increased use of that solution, whereas if the high past-proficiency peer demonstrated an alternative solution, there was increased use of the alternative social solution and novel solutions. Thus, model proficiency influenced innovation. PMID:26143092

  20. College Students' Choice Modeling of Taking On-Line International Business Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Robert S.

    2006-01-01

    To understand students' choice behavior of taking on-line international business courses, a survey study is conducted to collect information regarding students' actual choices of taking on-line courses and potential factors that may have impacts on students' choices of online learning. Potential factors such as enrollment status, demographic…

  1. A REVIEW OF ASSUMPTIONS AND ANALYSIS IN EPRI EA-3409,"HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCE CHOICE: REVISION OF REEPS BEHAVIORAL MODELS"

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wood, D.J.; Ruderman, H.; McMahon, J. E.

    1989-05-01

    This paper revises and extends EPRI report EA-3409, ''Household Appliance Choice: Revision of REEPS Behavioral Models.'' That paper reported the results of an econometric study of major appliance choice in new residential construction. Errors appeared in two tables of that report. We offer revised versions of those tables, and a brief analysis of the consequences and significance of the errors. The present paper also proposes several possible extensions and re-specifications of the models examined by EPRI. Some of these are judged to be highly successful; they both satisfy economic intuition more completely than the original specification and produce a better quality fit to the dependent variable. We feel that inclusion of these modifications produces a more useful set of coefficients for economic modeling than the original specification. This paper focuses on EPRI's models of residential space heating technology choice. That choice was modeled as a nested logit structure, with consumers choosing whether to have central air conditioning or not, and, given that choice, what kind of space heating system to have. The model included five space heating alternatives with central cooling (gas, oil, and electric forced-air; heat pumps; and electric baseboard) and eight alternatives without it (gas, oil, and electric forced-air; gas and oil boilers and non-central systems; and electric baseboard heat). The structure of the nested logit model is shown in Figure 1.

  2. Modeling the bullying prevention program preferences of educators: a discrete choice conjoint experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Charles E; Vaillancourt, Tracy; Rimas, Heather; Deal, Ken; Cunningham, Lesley; Short, Kathy; Chen, Yvonne

    2009-10-01

    We used discrete choice conjoint analysis to model the bullying prevention program preferences of educators. Using themes from computerized decision support lab focus groups (n = 45 educators), we composed 20 three-level bullying prevention program design attributes. Each of 1,176 educators completed 25 choice tasks presenting experimentally varied combinations of the study's attribute levels. Latent class analysis yielded three segments with different preferences. Decision Sensitive educators (31%) preferred that individual schools select bullying prevention programs. In contrast, Support Sensitive educators (51%) preferred that local school boards chose bullying prevention programs. This segment preferred more logistical and social support at every stage of the adoption, training, implementation, and long term maintenance processes. Cost Sensitive educators (16%) showed a stronger preference for programs minimizing costs, training, and implementation time demands. They felt prevention programs were less effective and that the time and space in the curriculum for bullying prevention was less adequate. They were less likely to believe that bullying prevention was their responsibility and more likely to agree that prevention was the responsibility of parents. All segments preferred programs supported by the anecdotal reports of colleagues from other schools rather than those based on scientific evidence. To ensure that the bullying prevention options available reflect the complex combination of attributes influencing real world adoption decisions, program developers need to accommodate the differing views of the Decision, Support, and Cost Sensitive segments while maximizing the support of parents and students. PMID:19455413

  3. Choice Overload, Satisficing Behavior, and Price Distribution in a Time Allocation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Álvarez

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent psychological research indicates that consumers that search exhaustively for the best option of a market product—known as maximizers—eventually feel worse than consumers who just look for something good enough—called satisficers. We formulate a time allocation model to explore the relationship between different distributions of prices of the product and the satisficing behavior and the related welfare of the consumer. We show numerically that, as the number of options becomes large, the maximizing behavior produces less and less welfare and eventually leads to choice paralysis—these are effects of choice overload—whereas satisficing conducts entail higher levels of satisfaction and do not end up in paralysis. For different price distributions, we provide consistent evidence that maximizers are better off for a low number of options, whereas satisficers are better off for a sufficiently large number of options. We also show how the optimal satisficing behavior is affected when the underlying price distribution varies. We provide evidence that the mean and the dispersion of a symmetric distribution of prices—but not the shape of the distribution—condition the satisficing behavior of consumers. We also show that this need not be the case for asymmetric distributions.

  4. Product Attributes and Consumer Willingness to Pay for Environmental Management Systems in Agriculture: Using the Choice Modeling Technique

    OpenAIRE

    Straub, Matthew O.; Thomassin, Paul J.

    2006-01-01

    Consumer concerns in food purchasing contain a number of elements, including food safety, environment, animal welfare, and other social issues. The purpose of this study was to examine consumer perceptions of the potential benefits of products that are produced using an environmental management system (EMS) in agriculture, and to identify those factors that influence choice. The choice modeling technique uses consumer responses (preferences) to estimate Montrealers= willingness to pay (WTP) f...

  5. Benefit Transfer from Multiple Contingent Experiments: A Flexible Two-Step Model Combining Individual Choice Data with Community Characteristics

    OpenAIRE

    Klaus Moeltner; Johnston, Robert J.; Rosenberger, Randall S.

    2009-01-01

    This study proposes a new approach to utilize information from existing choice experiments to predict policy outcomes for a transfer setting. Recognizing the difficulties from pooling raw data from experiments with different designs and sub-populations we first re-estimate all underlying Random Utility Models individually, and then combine them in a second stage process to form a weighted mixture density for the generation of policy-relevant welfare estimates. Using data from recent choice ex...

  6. Choice Model and Influencing Factor Analysis of Travel Mode for Migrant Workers: Case Study in Xi’an, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Chen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the basic theory and methods of disaggregate choice model, the influencing factors in travel mode choice for migrant workers are analyzed, according to 1366 data samples of Xi’an migrant workers. Walking, bus, subway, and taxi are taken as the alternative parts of travel modes for migrant workers, and a multinomial logit (MNL model of travel mode for migrant workers is set up. The validity of the model is verified by the hit rate, and the hit rates of four travel modes are all greater than 80%. Finally, the influence of different factors affecting the choice of travel mode is analyzed in detail, and the inelasticity of each factor is analyzed with the elasticity theory. Influencing factors such as age, education level, and monthly gross income have significant impact on travel choice mode for migrant workers. The elasticity values of education degree are greater than 1, indicating that it on the travel mode choice is of elasticity, while the elasticity values of gender, industry distribution, and travel purpose are less than 1, indicating that these factors on travel mode choice are of inelasticity.

  7. Valence-dependent influence of serotonin depletion on model-based choice strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worbe, Y; Palminteri, S; Savulich, G; Daw, N D; Fernandez-Egea, E; Robbins, T W; Voon, V

    2016-05-01

    Human decision-making arises from both reflective and reflexive mechanisms, which underpin goal-directed and habitual behavioural control. Computationally, these two systems of behavioural control have been described by different learning algorithms, model-based and model-free learning, respectively. Here, we investigated the effect of diminished serotonin (5-hydroxytryptamine) neurotransmission using dietary tryptophan depletion (TD) in healthy volunteers on the performance of a two-stage decision-making task, which allows discrimination between model-free and model-based behavioural strategies. A novel version of the task was used, which not only examined choice balance for monetary reward but also for punishment (monetary loss). TD impaired goal-directed (model-based) behaviour in the reward condition, but promoted it under punishment. This effect on appetitive and aversive goal-directed behaviour is likely mediated by alteration of the average reward representation produced by TD, which is consistent with previous studies. Overall, the major implication of this study is that serotonin differentially affects goal-directed learning as a function of affective valence. These findings are relevant for a further understanding of psychiatric disorders associated with breakdown of goal-directed behavioural control such as obsessive-compulsive disorders or addictions. PMID:25869808

  8. A Two-Dimensional CA Traffic Model with Dynamic Route Choices Between Residence and Workplace

    CERN Document Server

    Fang, Jun; Chen, Xi-Qun; Qin, Zheng

    2015-01-01

    The Biham, Middleton and Levine (BML) model is extended to describe dynamic route choices between the residence and workplace in cities. The traffic dynamic in the city with a single workplace is studied from the velocity diagram, arrival time probability distribution, destination arrival rate and convergence time. The city with double workplaces is also investigated to compared with a single workplace within the framework of four modes of urban growth. The transitional region is found in the velocity diagrams where the system undergoes a continuous transition from a moving phase to a completely jamming phase. We perform a finite-size scaling analysis of the critical density from a statistical point of view and the order parameter of this jamming transition is estimated. It is also found that statistical properties of urban traffic are greatly influenced by the urban area, workplace area and urban layout.

  9. Modeling the choice to switch from fuelwood to electricity. Implications for giant panda habitat conservation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Despite its status as a nature reserve, Wolong Nature Reserve (China) has experienced continued loss of giant panda habitat due to human activities such as fuelwood collection. Electricity, though available throughout Wolong, has not replaced fuelwood as an energy source. We used stated preference data obtained from in-person interviews to estimate a random utility model of the choice of adopting electricity for cooking and heating. Willingness to switch to electricity was explained by demographic and electricity factors (price, voltage, and outage frequency). In addition to price, non-price factors such as voltage and outage frequency significantly affect the demand. Thus, lowering electricity prices and increasing electricity quality would encourage local residents to switch from fuelwood to electricity and should be considered in the mix of policies to promote conservation of panda habitat

  10. Opponent actor learning (OpAL): modeling interactive effects of striatal dopamine on reinforcement learning and choice incentive.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Anne G E; Frank, Michael J

    2014-07-01

    The striatal dopaminergic system has been implicated in reinforcement learning (RL), motor performance, and incentive motivation. Various computational models have been proposed to account for each of these effects individually, but a formal analysis of their interactions is lacking. Here we present a novel algorithmic model expanding the classical actor-critic architecture to include fundamental interactive properties of neural circuit models, incorporating both incentive and learning effects into a single theoretical framework. The standard actor is replaced by a dual opponent actor system representing distinct striatal populations, which come to differentially specialize in discriminating positive and negative action values. Dopamine modulates the degree to which each actor component contributes to both learning and choice discriminations. In contrast to standard frameworks, this model simultaneously captures documented effects of dopamine on both learning and choice incentive-and their interactions-across a variety of studies, including probabilistic RL, effort-based choice, and motor skill learning. PMID:25090423

  11. State dependent choice

    OpenAIRE

    Manzini, Paola; Mariotti, Marco

    2015-01-01

    We propose a theory of choices that are influenced by the psychological state of the agent. The central hypothesis is that the psychological state controls the urgency of the attributes sought by the decision maker in the available alternatives. While state dependent choice is less restricted than rational choice, our model does have empirical content, expressed by simple ‘revealed preference’ type of constraints on observable choice data. We demonstrate the applicability of simple versions o...

  12. Electronic communication and manager's media choice : a structural equation modelling from rational and social perspectives

    OpenAIRE

    Krabuanrat, T.

    2000-01-01

    This exploratory study examines the communication media choice of managers. Despite a substantial body of theories on media choice, inadequacies are apparent in the literature particularly in relation to modem communication technologies. A field study approach was adopted to explore some of these inadequacies and to study the media choice of subject from a manager background. Overall, within the limitations and confines of this exploratory study, this thesis has made the following contributio...

  13. Patterns of Reinforcement and the Essential Value of Brands: II. Evaluation of a Model of Consumer Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Ji; Foxall, Gordon R.; Doyle, John R.

    2012-01-01

    We employ a behavioral-economic equation put forward by Hursh and Silberberg (2008) to explain human consumption behavior among substitutable food brands, applying a consumer-choice model--the behavioral perspective model (BPM; Foxall, 1990/2004, 2005). In this study, we apply the behavioral-economic equation to human economic consumption data. We…

  14. The Relation of Secondary Students' Career-Choice Readiness to a Six-Phase Model of Career Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirschi, Andreas; Lage, Damian

    2007-01-01

    Based on common aspects of recent models of career decision making (CDM), a six-phase model of CDM for secondary students is presented and empirically evaluated. The study tests the hypothesis that students who are in later phases possess more career-choice readiness and consider different numbers of career alternatives. Two hundred sixty-six…

  15. Combining spatial modeling and choice experiments for the optimal spatial allocation of wind turbines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Although wind power is currently the most efficient source of renewable energy, the installation of wind turbines (WT) in landscapes often leads to conflicts in the affected communities. We propose that such conflicts can be mitigated by a welfare-optimal spatial allocation of WT in the landscape so that a given energy target is reached at minimum social costs. The energy target is motivated by the fact that wind power production is associated with relatively low CO2 emissions. Social costs comprise energy production costs as well as external costs caused by harmful impacts on humans and biodiversity. We present a modeling approach that combines spatially explicit ecological-economic modeling and choice experiments to determine the welfare-optimal spatial allocation of WT in West Saxony, Germany. The welfare-optimal sites balance production and external costs. Results indicate that in the welfare-optimal allocation the external costs represent about 14% of the total costs (production costs plus external costs). Optimizing wind power production without consideration of the external costs would lead to a very different allocation of WT that would marginally reduce the production costs but strongly increase the external costs and thus lead to substantial welfare losses. - Highlights: → We combine modeling and economic valuation to optimally allocate wind turbines. → Welfare-optimal allocation balances energy production costs and external costs. → External costs (impacts on the environment) can be substantial. → Ignoring external costs leads to suboptimal allocations and welfare losses.

  16. Diffusion model for one-choice reaction-time tasks and the cognitive effects of sleep deprivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratcliff, Roger; Van Dongen, Hans P A

    2011-07-01

    One-choice reaction-time (RT) tasks are used in many domains, including assessments of motor vehicle driving and assessments of the cognitive/behavioral consequences of sleep deprivation. In such tasks, subjects are asked to respond when they detect the onset of a stimulus; the dependent variable is RT. We present a cognitive model for one-choice RT tasks that uses a one-boundary diffusion process to represent the accumulation of stimulus information. When the accumulated evidence reaches a decision criterion, a response is initiated. This model is distinct in accounting for the RT distributions observed for one-choice RT tasks, which can have long tails that have not been accurately captured by earlier cognitive modeling approaches. We show that the model explains performance on a brightness-detection task (a "simple RT task") and on a psychomotor vigilance test. The latter is used extensively to examine the clinical and behavioral effects of sleep deprivation. For the brightness-detection task, the model explains the behavior of RT distributions as a function of brightness. For the psychomotor vigilance test, it accounts for lapses in performance under conditions of sleep deprivation and for changes in the shapes of RT distributions over the course of sleep deprivation. The model also successfully maps the rate of accumulation of stimulus information onto independently derived predictions of alertness. The model is a unified, mechanistic account of one-choice RT under conditions of sleep deprivation. PMID:21690336

  17. The effect of food related personality traits and lifestyle orientation on consumer’s behaviour related to extra virgin olive oil: estimation of an extended hybrid choice model.

    OpenAIRE

    Yangui, Ahmed1; Font, Montserrat Costa; Gil, José María

    2013-01-01

    Due to the increasing interest on understanding the formation of consumer’s food choice process, the hybrid choice model (HCM) has been developed. HCM represents a promising new class of models which merge classic choice models with structural equations models (SEM) for latent variables (LV). Regardless of their conceptual appeal, up to date the application of HCM in agro food marketing remains very scarce. The present work extends previous HCM applications by first estimating a random parame...

  18. Opportunities for Young Children to Make Choices in a Model Interdisciplinary and Inclusive Preschool Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolivette, Kristine; McCormick, Katherine; McLaren, Elizabeth; Steed, Elizabeth A.

    2009-01-01

    The provision of choice making is frequently cited as an indicator of developmentally appropriate practice for young children with and without disabilities; however, there is little empirical evidence regarding the rate of delivery of choices within the preschool classroom. The delivery of intervention strategies by a classroom-based…

  19. Semi-Automated Object-Based Classification of Coral Reef Habitat using Discrete Choice Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven Saul

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available As for terrestrial remote sensing, pixel-based classifiers have traditionally been used to map coral reef habitats. For pixel-based classifiers, habitat assignment is based on the spectral or textural properties of each individual pixel in the scene. More recently, however, object-based classifications, those based on information from a set of contiguous pixels with similar properties, have found favor with the reef mapping community and are starting to be extensively deployed. Object-based classifiers have an advantage over pixel-based in that they are less compromised by the inevitable inhomogeneity in per-pixel spectral response caused, primarily, by variations in water depth. One aspect of the object-based classification workflow is the assignment of each image object to a habitat class on the basis of its spectral, textural, or geometric properties. While a skilled image interpreter can achieve this task accurately through manual editing, full or partial automation is desirable for large-scale reef mapping projects of the magnitude which are useful for marine spatial planning. To this end, this paper trials the use of multinomial logistic discrete choice models to classify coral reef habitats identified through object-based segmentation of satellite imagery. Our results suggest that these models can attain assignment accuracies of about 85%, while also reducing the time needed to produce the map, as compared to manual methods. Limitations of this approach include misclassification of image objects at the interface between some habitat types due to the soft gradation in nature between habitats, the robustness of the segmentation algorithm used, and the selection of a strong training dataset. Finally, due to the probabilistic nature of multinomial logistic models, the analyst can estimate a map of uncertainty associated with the habitat classifications. Quantifying uncertainty is important to the end-user when developing marine spatial

  20. A personal vehicle transactions choice model for use in forecasting demand for future alternative-fuel vehicles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ren, W.; Brownstone, D.; Bunch, D.S.; Golob, T.F.

    1994-12-31

    A discrete choice model has been developed in which the choice alternatives consist of vehicle transactions rather than portfolios of vehicle holdings. The model is based on responses to customized stated preference questions involving both hypothetical future vehicles and the household`s current vehicle holdings. The stated choices were collected from 4747 survey respondents located throughout most of the urbanized portions of California. Respondents were asked what their next vehicle transaction would most likely be (replace a current vehicle, add another vehicle, or dispose of a current vehicle), and respondents who wanted to replace or add vehicles were asked to indicate their most preferred vehicle from a set of six hypothetical vehicles. The hypothetical vehicles were described in terms of fourteen attributes, manipulated according to an experimental design. The transactions model is a multinomial logic model of the choice of the hypothetical vehicles and whether or not the hypothetical vehicle will be a replacement or addition to the household fleet. The model is conditioned on the household`s current vehicle stock, and the characteristics of the current vehicles are important explanators of the stated preference choices. In addition to the model estimates, forecasts are given for a base case scenario in 1998. The model is one component in a micro-simulation demand forecasting system being designed to produce annual forecasts of new and used vehicle demand by type of vehicle and geographic area. The system will also forecast annual vehicle miles traveled for all vehicles and recharging demand by time of day for electric vehicles. These results are potentially useful to utility companies in their demand-side management planning, to public agencies in their evaluation incentive schemes, and to manufacturers faced with designing and marketing alternative-fuel vehicles.

  1. Catching the PHEVer: Simulating Electric Vehicle Diffusion with an Agent-Based Mixed Logit Model of Vehicle Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Maxwell Brown

    2013-01-01

    This research develops then merges two separate models to simulate electric vehicle diffusion through recreation of the Boston metropolitan statistical area vehicle market place. The first model is a mixed (random parameters) logistic regression applied to data from the US Department of Transportation's 2009 National Household Travel Survey. The second, agent-based model simulates social network interactions through which agents' vehicle choice sets are endogenously determined. Parameters fro...

  2. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended to...

  3. Renewable energy systems the choice and modeling of 100% renewable solutions

    CERN Document Server

    Lund, Henrik

    2009-01-01

    How can society quickly convert to renewable energy? Can worldwide energy needs ever be met through 100% renewable sources? The answers to these questions rest largely on the perception of choice in the energy arena. It is of pivotal importance that engineers, researchers and policymakers understand what choices are available, and reasonable, when considering the design and deployment of new energy systems. The mission of this new book, written by one of the world's foremost experts in renewable power, is to arm these professionals with the tools and methodologies necessary to make smart choic

  4. Model Fitting for Predicted Precipitation in Darwin: Some Issues with Model Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, Jim

    2010-01-01

    In Volume 23(2) of the "Australian Senior Mathematics Journal," Boncek and Harden present an exercise in fitting a Markov chain model to rainfall data for Darwin Airport (Boncek & Harden, 2009). Days are subdivided into those with precipitation and precipitation-free days. The author abbreviates these labels to wet days and dry days. It is…

  5. Relation of Contextual Supports and Barriers to Choice Behavior in Engineering Majors: Test of Alternative Social Cognitive Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lent, Robert W.; Brown, Steven D.; Schmidt, Janet; Brenner, Bradley; Lyons, Heather; Treistman, Dana

    2003-01-01

    Social cognitive career theory (SCCT; R. W. Lent, S. D. Brown, and G. Hackett, 1994) and general social cognitive theory (Bandura, 1999, 2000) posit somewhat different relations between contextual variables and choice actions. The authors tested the predictions of these 2 model variations. Participants (328 students in an introductory engineering…

  6. On the choice of GARCH parameters for efficient modelling of real stock price dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhilchuk, K. A.; Savel'ev, S. E.

    2016-04-01

    We propose two different methods for optimal choice of GARCH(1,1) parameters for the efficient modelling of stock prices by using a particular return series. Using (as an example) stock return data for Intel Corporation, we vary parameters to fit the average volatility as well as fourth (linked to kurtosis of data) and eighth statistical moments and observe pure convergence of our simulated eighth moment to the stock data. Results indicate that fitting higher-order moments of a return series might not be an optimal approach for choosing GARCH parameters. In contrast, the simulated exponent of the Fourier spectrum decay is much less noisy and can easily fit the corresponding decay of the empirical Fourier spectrum of the used return series of Intel stock, allowing us to efficiently define all GARCH parameters. We compare the estimates of GARCH parameters obtained by fitting price data Fourier spectra with the ones obtained from standard software packages and conclude that the obtained estimates here are deeper in the stability region of parameters. Thus, the proposed method of using Fourier spectra of stock data to estimate GARCH parameters results in a more robust and stable stochastic process but with a shorter characteristic autocovariance time.

  7. Modeling mental health information preferences during the early adult years: a discrete choice conjoint experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Charles E; Walker, John R; Eastwood, John D; Westra, Henny; Rimas, Heather; Chen, Yvonne; Marcus, Madalyn; Swinson, Richard P; Bracken, Keyna; The Mobilizing Minds Research Group

    2014-04-01

    Although most young adults with mood and anxiety disorders do not seek treatment, those who are better informed about mental health problems are more likely to use services. The authors used conjoint analysis to model strategies for providing information about anxiety and depression to young adults. Participants (N = 1,035) completed 17 choice tasks presenting combinations of 15 four-level attributes of a mental health information strategy. Latent class analysis yielded 3 segments. The virtual segment (28.7%) preferred working independently on the Internet to obtain information recommended by young adults who had experienced anxiety or depression. Self-assessment options and links to service providers were more important to this segment. Conventional participants (30.1%) preferred books or pamphlets recommended by a doctor, endorsed by mental health professionals, and used with a doctor's support. They would devote more time to information acquisition but were less likely to use Internet social networking options. Brief sources of information were more important to the low interest segment (41.2%). All segments preferred information about alternative ways to reduce anxiety or depression rather than psychological approaches or medication. Maximizing the use of information requires active and passive approaches delivered through old-media (e.g., books) and new-media (e.g., Internet) channels. PMID:24266450

  8. Understanding the formation and influence of attitudes in patients' treatment choices for lower back pain: Testing the benefits of a hybrid choice model approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kløjgaard, Mirja Elisabeth; Hess, S.

    2014-01-01

    health economics. The present paper looks at the formation of such attitudes and their role in patients treatment choices in the context of low back pain. We use stated choice data collected from a sample of 561 patients with 348 respondents referred to a regional spine centre in Middelfart, Denmark in...

  9. Passengers’ Airport Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Gelhausen, Marc Christopher

    2007-01-01

    Modelling airport choice of passengers has been a subject of interest for air transport scientists and airport managers already for a while. Wilken, Berster and Gelhausen have reported of a market segment specific model approach to airport choice in Germany in a paper entitled "Airport Choice in Germany - New Empirical Evidence of the German Air Traveller Survey 2003" presented at the Air Transport Research Society World Conference 2005 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In continuation of the analys...

  10. Multimodal route choice models of public transport passengers in the Greater Copenhagen Area

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anderson, Marie Karen; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2014-01-01

    Understanding route choice behavior is crucial to explain travelers’ preferences and to predict traffic flows under different scenarios. A growing body of literature has concentrated on public transport users without, however, concentrating on multimodal public transport networks because of their...

  11. Incorporating environmental attitudes in discrete choice models: an exploration of the utility of the awareness of consequences scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoyos, David; Mariel, Petr; Hess, Stephane

    2015-02-01

    Environmental economists are increasingly interested in better understanding how people cognitively organise their beliefs and attitudes towards environmental change in order to identify key motives and barriers that stimulate or prevent action. In this paper, we explore the utility of a commonly used psychometric scale, the awareness of consequences (AC) scale, in order to better understand stated choices. The main contribution of the paper is that it provides a novel approach to incorporate attitudinal information into discrete choice models for environmental valuation: firstly, environmental attitudes are incorporated using a reinterpretation of the classical AC scale recently proposed by Ryan and Spash (2012); and, secondly, attitudinal data is incorporated as latent variables under a hybrid choice modelling framework. This novel approach is applied to data from a survey conducted in the Basque Country (Spain) in 2008 aimed at valuing land-use policies in a Natura 2000 Network site. The results are relevant to policy-making because choice models that are able to accommodate underlying environmental attitudes may help in designing more effective environmental policies. PMID:25461111

  12. Building a bridge into the future: Dynamic connectionist modeling as an integrative tool for research on intertemporal choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MajaDshemuchadse

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Temporal discounting denotes the fact that individuals prefer smaller rewards delivered sooner over larger rewards delivered later, often to a higher extent than suggested by normative economical theories. In this article, we identify three lines of research studying this phenomenon which aim (i to describe temporal discounting mathematically, (ii to explain observed choice behavior psychologically, and (iii to predict the influence of specific factors on intertemporal decisions. We then opt for an approach integrating postulated mechanisms and empirical findings from these three lines of research. Our approach focuses on the dynamical properties of decision processes and is based on computational modeling. We present a dynamic connectionist model of intertemporal choice focusing on the role of self-control and time framing as two central factors determining choice behavior. Results of our simulations indicate that the two influences interact with each other, and we present experimental data supporting this prediction. We conclude that computational modeling of the decision process dynamics can advance the integration of different strands of research in intertemporal choice.

  13. STORE PATRONAGE: THE UTILITY OF A MULTI-METHOD, MULTI-NOMIAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL FOR PREDICTING STORE CHOICE

    OpenAIRE

    Moutinho, Luiz; Hutcheson, Graeme D.

    2006-01-01

    Factor, multinomial logistic regression and cluster analyses are used in combination to provide a predictive model of store patronage behaviour for consumers in Cardiff, Wales. A subset of variables and factors that are important for consumers when choosing a supermarket were used to provide a picture of each store’s clientele. Multinomial logistic regression allowed an overall model of supermarket choice to be developed and also enabled comparisons to be made of individual supermarkets withi...

  14. Variation in Estimated Ozone-Related Health Impacts of Climate Change due to Modeling Choices and Assumptions

    OpenAIRE

    Post, Ellen S.; Grambsch, Anne; Weaver, Chris; Morefield, Philip; Huang, Jin; Leung, Lai-Yung; Nolte, Christopher G.; Adams, Peter; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Zhu, Jin-Hong; Mahoney, Hardee

    2012-01-01

    Background: Future climate change may cause air quality degradation via climate-induced changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions into the air. Few studies have explicitly modeled the potential relationships between climate change, air quality, and human health, and fewer still have investigated the sensitivity of estimates to the underlying modeling choices. Objectives: Our goal was to assess the sensitivity of estimated ozone-related human health impacts of climate change...

  15. Shannon's measure of information, path averages and the origins of random utility models in transport itinerary or mode choice analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Gaudry, Marc; Quinet, Emile

    2012-01-01

    We interpret the often mentioned difference between Logsum and average utility in terms of Shannon's (1948) information measure S, leading to a Path Aggregation THeorem (PATH). It states that, in transport networks where unique measures of the utility of multiple paths are required for demand model formulation purposes and the true path choice model is Multinomial Logit (MNL), constructs based on weighted averages of path characteristics derived from multipath assignments always underestimate...

  16. Impact of modeling Choices on Inventory and In-Cask Criticality Calculations for Forsmark 3 BWR Spent Fuel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-Gonzalez, Jesus S. [Univ. Politecnica de Madrid (Spain); Ade, Brian J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Bowman, Stephen M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Gauld, Ian C. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Ilas, Germina [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Marshall, William BJ J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Simulation of boiling water reactor (BWR) fuel depletion poses a challenge for nuclide inventory validation and nuclear criticality safety analyses. This challenge is due to the complex operating conditions and assembly design heterogeneities that characterize these nuclear systems. Fuel depletion simulations and in-cask criticality calculations are affected by (1) completeness of design information, (2) variability of operating conditions needed for modeling purposes, and (3) possible modeling choices. These effects must be identified, quantified, and ranked according to their significance. This paper presents an investigation of BWR fuel depletion using a complete set of actual design specifications and detailed operational data available for five operating cycles of the Swedish BWR Forsmark 3 reactor. The data includes detailed axial profiles of power, burnup, and void fraction in a very fine temporal mesh for a GE14 (10×10) fuel assembly. The specifications of this case can be used to assess the impacts of different modeling choices on inventory prediction and in-cask criticality, specifically regarding the key parameters that drive inventory and reactivity throughout fuel burnup. This study focused on the effects of the fidelity with which power history and void fraction distributions are modeled. The corresponding sensitivity of the reactivity in storage configurations is assessed, and the impacts of modeling choices on decay heat and inventory are addressed.

  17. A hybrid mode choice model to account for the dynamic effect of inertia over time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cherchi, Elisabetta; Börjesson, Maria; Bierlaire, Michel

    a previous point in time. However, according to the psychological literature, inertia is the results of a habit, which is formed in a longer process where many past decisions (not only the immediately previous one) remain in the memory of the consumer and influence behavior. In this study we use......The influence of habits, giving rise to inertia effect, in the choice process has been intensely debated in the literature. Typically inertia is accounted for by letting the indirect utility functions of the alternatives of the choice situation at time t depend on the outcome of the choice made at....... However, the lagged effect of the previous trips is not constant but it depends on the individual propensity to undertake habitual trips which is captured by the individual specific latent variable. And the frequency of the trips in the previous week is used as an indicator of the habitual behavior. The...

  18. Consumer rationality in choice

    OpenAIRE

    Conlon, B.J.

    2001-01-01

    The dissertation concentrates on consumer choice and the ability of current modelling approaches to capture the underlying behaviour of the individual decision-makers. The standard assumption of a rational utility maximising individual and its implications for observed behaviour are examined and demonstrated empirically to be incompatible with actual consumer choices. In particular the complexity of the choice situation, and its various components, are found to be major determinants of the ch...

  19. , Testing a bioenergetics-based habitat choice model: bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus) responses to food availability and temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wildhaber, Mark L.; Crowder, Larry B.

    2011-01-01

    Using an automated shuttlebox system, we conducted patch choice experiments with 32, 8–12 g bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus) to test a behavioral energetics hypothesis of habitat choice. When patch temperature and food levels were held constant within patches but different between patches, we expected bluegill to choose patches that maximized growth based on the bioenergetic integration of food and temperature as predicted by a bioenergetics model. Alternative hypotheses were that bluegill may choose patches based only on food (optimal foraging) or temperature (behavioral thermoregulation). The behavioral energetics hypothesis was not a good predictor of short-term (from minutes to weeks) patch choice by bluegill; the behavioral thermoregulation hypothesis was the best predictor. In the short-term, food and temperature appeared to affect patch choice hierarchically; temperature was more important, although food can alter temperature preference during feeding periods. Over a 19-d experiment, mean temperatures occupied by fish offered low rations did decline as predicted by the behavioral energetics hypothesis, but the decline was less than 1.0 °C as opposed to a possible 5 °C decline. A short-term, bioenergetic response to food and temperature may be precluded by physiological costs of acclimation not considered explicitly in the behavioral energetics hypothesis.

  20. Effects of various cannabinoid ligands on choice behaviour in a rat model of gambling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gueye, Aliou B; Trigo, Jose M; Vemuri, Kiran V; Makriyannis, Alexandros; Le Foll, Bernard

    2016-04-01

    It is estimated that 0.6-1% of the population in the USA and Canada fulfil the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 5th ed. (DSM-5) criteria for gambling disorders (GD). To date, there are no approved pharmacological treatments for GD. The rat gambling task (rGT) is a recently developed rodent analogue of the Iowa gambling task in which rats are trained to associate four response holes with different magnitudes and probabilities of food pellet rewards and punishing time-out periods. Similar to healthy human volunteers, most rats adopt the optimal strategies (optimal group). However, a subset of animals show preference for the disadvantageous options (suboptimal group), mimicking the choice pattern of patients with GD. Here, we explored for the first time the effects of various cannabinoid ligands (WIN 55,212-2, AM 4113, AM 630 and URB 597) on the rGT. Administration of the cannabinoid agonist CB1/CB2 WIN 55,212-2 improved choice strategy and increased choice latency in the suboptimal group, but only increased perseverative behaviour, when punished, in the optimal group. Blockade of CB1 or CB2 receptors or inhibition of fatty-acid amide hydrolase did not affect rGT performance. These results suggest that stimulation of cannabinoid receptors could affect gambling choice behaviours differentially in some subgroups of subjects. PMID:26905189

  1. Ratings based versus choice-based latent class conjoint models - An empirical comparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vriens, M; Oppewal, H; Wedel, M

    1998-01-01

    Traditional ratings- or rankings-based conjoint analysis has been very popular in commercial practice. Recently, the choice-based conjoint approach has become an attractive alternative for measuring preference structures. However, little is known about the extent to which both approaches produce sim

  2. Effects of various cannabinoid ligands on choice behaviour in a rat model of gambling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gueye, Aliou B.; Trigo, Jose M.; Vemuri, Kiran V.; Makriyannis, Alexandros

    2016-01-01

    It is estimated that 0.6–1% of the population in the USA and Canada fulfil the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 5th ed. (DSM-5) criteria for gambling disorders (GD). To date, there are no approved pharmacological treatments for GD. The rat gambling task (rGT) is a recently developed rodent analogue of the Iowa gambling task in which rats are trained to associate four response holes with different magnitudes and probabilities of food pellet rewards and punishing time-out periods. Similar to healthy human volunteers, most rats adopt the optimal strategies (optimal group). However, a subset of animals show preference for the disadvantageous options (suboptimal group), mimicking the choice pattern of patients with GD. Here, we explored for the first time the effects of various cannabinoid ligands (WIN 55,212-2, AM 4113, AM 630 and URB 597) on the rGT. Administration of the cannabinoid agonist CB1/CB2 WIN 55,212-2 improved choice strategy and increased choice latency in the suboptimal group, but only increased perseverative behaviour, when punished, in the optimal group. Blockade of CB1 or CB2 receptors or inhibition of fatty-acid amide hydrolase did not affect rGT performance. These results suggest that stimulation of cannabinoid receptors could affect gambling choice behaviours differentially in some subgroups of subjects. PMID:26905189

  3. Single-parenthood by choice: Children’s socialization processes into a non-conventional family model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Poveda

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available In this article we present part of our findings from a research project focused on single-parent families by choice. The study collected data in three autonomous communities in Spain and includes interviews with mothers involved in single parent-projects (through adoption, foster parenting, assisted reproductive technologies or sexual fertilization through a known donor and their children about their family experiences, observations in different formative, associative and virtual spaces in which these families participate and a compilation of different documents on parenthood by choice. We focus on the way in which the children we have studied build their own non-conventional family model. We understand the construction of this model as a process of co-construction of the child's subjectivity in which mothers and other socializing agents play an active role.

  4. Modeling Gender-Based Differences in Mode Choice considering Time-Use Pattern: Analysis of Bicycle, Public Transit, and Car Use in Suzhou, China

    OpenAIRE

    Min Yang; Dan Li; Wei Wang; Jingyao Zhao; Xuewu Chen

    2013-01-01

    Activity-travel behavior differs between women and men. Previous researches dealing with gender differences mainly focus on travel in itself rather than the interaction between time-use pattern and travel mode choice. Based on the activity-travel survey data of Suzhou, China, multigroup structural equation modeling is adopted to explore the reason for gender-based differences in mode choice through comparing the interactions among sociodemographics, time-use pattern, and mode choice. The resu...

  5. A Pseudo-Sequential Choice Model for Valuing Multi-Attribute Environmental Policies or Programs in Contingent Valuation Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Volinskiy, Dmitriy; Bergstrom, John C.; Christopher M. Cornwell; Holmes, Thomas P.

    2010-01-01

    The assumption of independence of irrelevant alternatives in a sequential contingent valuation format should be questioned. Statistically, most valuation studies treat nonindependence as a consequence of unobserved individual effects. Another approach is to consider an inferential process in which any particular choice is part of a general choosing strategy of a survey respondent. A stochastic model is suggested, consistent with the reflexivity, transitivity, and continuity axioms of utility ...

  6. Educational decisions as rational choice? : an empirical test of the Erikson-Jonsson model for explaining educational attainment

    OpenAIRE

    Stocké, Volker

    2008-01-01

    This article tests the prediction from the Erikson-Jonsson (EJ) rational-choice model that altogether eight financial as well as non-financial dimensions of costs and returns of education, as well as the probability of being able to successfully realise educational credential simultaneously explain educational decisions. Among the included returns is a new measure for the families’ motive to avoid intergenerational status demotion. Furthermore, we test the pivotal assumption of instrumental r...

  7. U.S. Consumers' Willingness to Pay for Labeling Information on Genetically Modified Foods: An Application of Choice Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Onyango, Benjamin M.; Nayga, Rodolfo M.; Govindasamy, Ramu

    2005-01-01

    This study analyzes U.S. consumers' valuation of five types of genetically modified food labels on a cornflakes cereal product. Using a nationwide survey and choice-modeling framework, results indicate that consumers value the label "contains no genetically modified corn" the most with a mean willingness to pay of 20 more cents, followed by "USDA approved genetically modified corn" with a mean willingness to pay of 9 more cents, and "corn genetically modified to reduce pesticide residues in y...

  8. Using focus groups to design a choice modelling questionnaire for estimating natural resource management benefits in NSW

    OpenAIRE

    Kasia Mazur; Jeff Bennett

    2008-01-01

    In this study, focus group discussions were used to design a choice modelling (CM) questionnaire to estimate community wide values for the environmental and social benefits provided by natural resource management changes in the Namoi, Lachlan and Hawkesbury-Nepean catchments. This report describes the logistics of the focus groups and outlines the main conclusions drawn from the discussions. The research team conducted eight focus groups in the main urban areas of the regions where the CM sur...

  9. Asymmetries in Ordered Strength of Preference Models: Implications of Focus Shift for Discrete-Choice Preference Estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Johnston, Robert J.; Stephen K. Swallow

    1999-01-01

    This paper explores potential focus shift asymmetries in an ordered strength of preference model applied to contingent choice data. A focus shift occurs when respondents weight factors differently when assessing preference for an "accepted" scenario than they do when assessing preference for a "rejected" scenario, and may imply that respondents do not refer to a single underlying preference function. Using data drawn from a survey which addressed preferences for watershed management, the mode...

  10. On the Origin-Destination Demands Linear Programming Model for Network Revenue Management with Customer Choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Liu

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we research the problem of network revenue management with customer choice based on the Origin-Destination (O-D demands. By dividing customers into different segments according to O-D pairs, we consider a network capacity control problem where each customer chooses the open product within the segment he belongs to. Starting with a Markov Decision Process (MDP formulation, we approximate the value function with an affine function of the state vector. The affine function approximation results in a new Linear Program (LP which yields tighter bounds than the Choice-based Deterministic Linear Program (CDLP. We give a column generation procedure for solving the LP within a desired optimality tolerance and present numerical results which show the policy perform from our solution approach can outperform that from the CDLP.

  11. A New Scoring Algorithm for Multiple-Choice Tests: Conditional Knowledge Model

    OpenAIRE

    Alex Strashny

    2002-01-01

    This paper uses basic rules of probability to develop a new scoring method. The method accounts for guessing, partial knowledge, and misinformation; it also differentiates between incorrect responses and omits. Aside from multiple-choice tests, the method can be used to score short-answer tests. Test scores and confidence intervals are found using simple formulas. Accounting for omits increases test score in almost all cases. Students who guess on questions that they should have omitted are a...

  12. Modelling international entry mode choice and speed: locational and cognitive insights in Pakistani small businesses

    OpenAIRE

    Majeed, Zahid

    2014-01-01

    This thesis intends to explore the process of foreign investment and entry mode choices of small firms from Pakistan. Pakistan being an epicure of global terrorism and ethnictension is an economy that is driven by small sector. The small sector is facing extreme difficulties to expand their international operations. This needs a comprehensive research to see beyond basic infrastructural impediments to small firms in Pakistan. What are the major behavioural and analytical impedimentsto their i...

  13. Using discrete choice modeling to evaluate the preferences and willingness to pay for leptospirosis vaccine

    OpenAIRE

    Arbiol, Joseph; Yabe, Mitsuyasu; Nomura, Hisako; Borja, Maridel; Gloriani, Nina; Yoshida, Shin-ichi

    2015-01-01

    Leptospirosis is highly endemic in the Philippines and a serious concern to public health. Local research on candidate vaccine is moving through the development pipeline. The availability of vaccines alone does not guarantee acceptance because individuals’ vaccination choice decision is influenced by several factors. This study assessed how vaccine attributes and socio-demographic factors affect the acceptability of leptospirosis vaccine; and estimated individuals’ willingness to pay for lept...

  14. Approximation algorithms for the Transportation Problem with Market Choice and related models

    OpenAIRE

    Aardal, Karen; Bodic, Pierre Le

    2014-01-01

    Given facilities with capacities and clients with penalties and demands, the transportation problem with market choice consists in finding the minimum-cost way to partition the clients into unserved clients, paying the penalties, and into served clients, paying the transportation cost to serve them. We give polynomial-time reductions from this problem and variants to the (un)capacitated facility location problem, directly yielding approximation algorithms, two with constant factors in the met...

  15. EU Consumers’ Perceptions of Fresh-cut Fruit and Vegetables Attributes: a Choice Experiment Model

    OpenAIRE

    Baselice, Antonio; Colantuoni, Francesca; Lass, Daniel A.; Nardone, Gianluca; Stasi, Antonio

    2014-01-01

    The fresh-cut sector is constantly evolving and innovating in order to enhance quality and safety of products, which attributes are generally valued by consumers. Quality and safety are multifaceted attributes because they arise from a wide set of methods/technologies, therefore the knowledge about consumers’ preferences for food technologies is still matter of debate. The present paper tests whether new fresh-cut fruit and vegetables (F&V) attributes influence consumers’ choices and preferen...

  16. Simultaneous modeling of visual saliency and value computation improves predictions of economic choice

    OpenAIRE

    Towal, R. Blythe; Mormann, Milica; Koch, Christof

    2013-01-01

    Many decisions we make require visually identifying and evaluating numerous alternatives quickly. These usually vary in reward, or value, and in low-level visual properties, such as saliency. Both saliency and value influence the final decision. In particular, saliency affects fixation locations and durations, which are predictive of choices. However, it is unknown how saliency propagates to the final decision. Moreover, the relative influence of saliency and value is unclear. Here we address...

  17. Social modeling of eating: a review of when and why social influence affects food intake and choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruwys, Tegan; Bevelander, Kirsten E; Hermans, Roel C J

    2015-03-01

    A major determinant of human eating behavior is social modeling, whereby people use others' eating as a guide for what and how much to eat. We review the experimental studies that have independently manipulated the eating behavior of a social referent (either through a live confederate or remotely) and measured either food choice or intake. Sixty-nine eligible experiments (with over 5800 participants) were identified that were published between 1974 and 2014. Speaking to the robustness of the modeling phenomenon, 64 of these studies have found a statistically significant modeling effect, despite substantial diversity in methodology, food type, social context and participant demographics. In reviewing the key findings from these studies, we conclude that there is limited evidence for a moderating effect of hunger, personality, age, weight or the presence of others (i.e., where the confederate is live vs. remote). There is inconclusive evidence for whether sex, attention, impulsivity and eating goals moderate modeling, and for whether modeling of food choice is as strong as modeling of food intake. Effects with substantial evidence were: modeling is increased when individuals desire to affiliate with the model, or perceive themselves to be similar to the model; modeling is attenuated (but still significant) for healthy-snack foods and meals such as breakfast and lunch, and modeling is at least partially mediated through behavioral mimicry, which occurs without conscious awareness. We discuss evidence suggesting that modeling is motivated by goals of both affiliation and uncertainty-reduction, and outline how these might be theoretically integrated. Finally, we argue for the importance of taking modeling beyond the laboratory and bringing it to bear on the important societal challenges of obesity and disordered eating. PMID:25174571

  18. Application of the Diffusion Model to Two-Choice Tasks for Adults 75−90 Years Old

    OpenAIRE

    Ratcliff, Roger; Thapar, Anjali; McKoon, Gail

    2007-01-01

    The effects of aging on simple 2-choice decision making was investigated with the diffusion model (R. Ratcliff, 1978). Data for 75- to 90-year-olds were collected and compared with previous data from 60-to 75-year-olds and college students for 5 tasks: a signal detection–like task, letter and brightness discrimination with masking, recognition memory, and lexical decision. The model fit the data well and therefore allows components of processing to be examined as a function of age. Compared w...

  19. A simplified differential game model for the optimal choice of tax rate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Rong; TONG Yu-yuan; XU Jun-ying

    2004-01-01

    A classical problem on optimal choice of tax rate from the perspective of differential game approach is studied. Under some appropriate assumptions on the profit and utility functions, the open-loop Stackelberg equilibrium solution which is timedependent is obtained. Result shows that 1) the optimal strategies derived from differential game and traditional unilateral optimal control approaches are different; 2) both marginal profit rate and the market rate of interest have great effect on the equilibrium solution; and 3) the government should think about the firm's potential reaction when selecting tax rates and the timing of taxation.

  20. Portfolio choice problems an introductory survey of single and multiperiod models

    CERN Document Server

    Chapados, Nicolas

    2011-01-01

    This brief offers a broad, yet concise, coverage of portfolio choice, containing both application-oriented and academic results, along with abundant pointers to the literature for further study. It cuts through many strands of the subject, presenting not only the classical results from financial economics but also approaches originating from information theory, machine learning and operations research. This compact treatment of the topic will be valuable to students entering the field, as well as practitioners looking for a broad coverage of the topic.

  1. Processing of recognition information and additional cues: A model-based analysis of choice, confidence, and response time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Glockner

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Research on the processing of recognition information has focused on testing the recognition heuristic (RH. On the aggregate, the noncompensatory use of recognition information postulated by the RH was rejected in several studies, while RH could still account for a considerable proportion of choices. These results can be explained if either a a part of the subjects used RH or b nobody used it but its choice predictions were accidentally in line with predictions of the strategy used. In the current study, which exemplifies a new approach to model testing, we determined individuals' decision strategies based on a maximum-likelihood classification method, taking into account choices, response times and confidence ratings simultaneously. Unlike most previous studies of the RH, our study tested the RH under conditions in which we provided information about cue values of unrecognized objects (which we argue is fairly common and thus of some interest. For 77.5% of the subjects, overall behavior was best explained by a compensatory parallel constraint satisfaction (PCS strategy. The proportion of subjects using an enhanced RH heuristic (RHe was negligible (up to 7.5%; 15% of the subjects seemed to use a take the best strategy (TTB. A more-fine grained analysis of the supplemental behavioral parameters conditional on strategy use supports PCS but calls into question process assumptions for apparent users of RH, RHe, and TTB within our experimental context. Our results are consistent with previous literature highlighting the importance of individual strategy classification as compared to aggregated analyses.

  2. Food Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Ehlers Bloksted, Josephine; Knudsen, Anna Althea; Boie Hvid, Amanda; Bang Christensen, Andrea; Ali Ismail, Mohamed Ahmed

    2012-01-01

    This paper illustrates the connection found between food choices, and the influences from society and the digital Media, more specifically television commercials. We have covered different aspects of social and psychological theories, aiming to explain how the individual is affected by social factors. We have drawn conclusions on how the individual is inflicted by society when concerning choice making, as well as covering the psychological aspects that are relevant in connection to this. Last...

  3. The Effect of Data Structure and Model Choices on MFA Results: A Comparison of Phosphorus Balances for Denmark and Austria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klinglmair, Manfred; Zoboli, Ottavia; Laner, David;

    2016-01-01

    Material Flow Analysis (MFA) studies for a particular substance often exist for several different countries or regions, but share a similar goal and scope. In direct comparisons of such regional resource budgets, the importance of the choices made in establishing an MFA system tends to be...... (9%) case. We suggest an iterative approach to uncertainty assessment. Likewise, we demonstrate the effect of the aggregation of flows on model uncertainty. These findings quantify and emphasise the importance of examining MFA studies’ metadata and suggest an approach to be followed when drawing on...

  4. Using a topological model in psychology: Developing sense and choice categories

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mammen, Jens

    2016-01-01

    the gap between psychology as part of Naturwissenschaft and of Geisteswissenschaft, and at the same time establish a common frame for understanding cognition and affection, and our practical and cultural life (Mammen and Mironenko 2015). The duality of sense and choice categories can be described...... formally using concepts from modern mathematics, primarily topology, surmounting the reductions rooted in the mechanistic concepts from Renaissance science and mathematics. The formal description is based on 11 short and simple axioms held in ordinary language and visualized with instructive figures. The...... axioms are bridging psychology and mathematics and not only enriching psychology but also opening for a new interpretation of parts of the foundation of mathematics and logic....

  5. Development of the Model of Decision Support for Alternative Choice in the Transportation Transit System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kabashkin Igor

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The decision support system is one of the instruments for choosing the most effective decision for cargo owner in constant fluctuated business environment. The objective of this Paper is to suggest the multiple-criteria approach for evaluation and choice the alternatives of cargo transportation in the large scale transportation transit system for the decision makers - cargo owners. The large scale transportation transit system is presented by directed finite graph. Each of 57 alternatives is represented by the set of key performance indicators Kvi and set of parameters Paj. There has been developed a two-level hierarchy system of criteria with ranging expert evaluations based on Analytic Hierarchy Process Method. The best alternatives were suggested according to this method.

  6. Residential preferences for stable electricity supply and a reduction in air pollution risk: A benefit transfer study using choice modeling in China

    OpenAIRE

    Ohdoko, Taro; Komatsu, Satoru; Kaneko, Shinji

    2012-01-01

    This paper uses choice modeling surveys from the Chinese cities of Jiujiang, Jiangxi Province, and Changsha, Hunan Province, to identify residential preferences for simultaneously increasing the stability of the electricity supply and decreasing the health risks from air pollution. Air pollution in China is mainly attributable to externalities associated with the electricity supply. We employ a contingent ranking approach as our choice modeling method and test for the transfer of benefits for...

  7. An approach to the Choice of a Supply Management Model in Conglomerates Operating at the Markets of Machine-building industry

    OpenAIRE

    Antonov Gennady D.; Ivanova Olga P.

    2016-01-01

    Strategic and managerial analysis shows that currently many conglomerates including those in the machine-building industry do not have established approaches to formation of a purchasing management system for their primary activity; some problems of purchasing model choice methodology lack theoretical development. In the given work the authors specify the list, the characteristics and the combination of estimated macrofactors influencing the choice of the principal supply model for the purpos...

  8. Using a Topological Model in Psychology: Developing Sense and Choice Categories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mammen, Jens

    2016-06-01

    A duality of sense categories and choice categories is introduced to map two distinct but co-operating ways in which we as humans are relating actively to the world. We are sensing similarities and differences in our world of objects and persons, but we are also as bodies moving around in this world encountering, selecting, and attaching to objects beyond our sensory interactions and in this way also relating to the individual objects' history. This duality is necessary if we shall understand man as relating to the historical depth of our natural and cultural world, and to understand our cognitions and affections. Our personal affections and attachments, as well as our shared cultural values are centered around objects and persons chosen as reference points and landmarks in our lives, uniting and separating, not to be understood only in terms of sensory selections. The ambition is to bridge the gap between psychology as part of Naturwissenschaft and of Geisteswissenschaft, and at the same time establish a common frame for understanding cognition and affection, and our practical and cultural life (Mammen and Mironenko 2015). The duality of sense and choice categories can be described formally using concepts from modern mathematics, primarily topology, surmounting the reductions rooted in the mechanistic concepts from Renaissance science and mathematics. The formal description is based on 11 short and simple axioms held in ordinary language and visualized with instructive figures. The axioms are bridging psychology and mathematics and not only enriching psychology but also opening for a new interpretation of parts of the foundation of mathematics and logic. PMID:26927850

  9. Investigating the Effect of Damage Progression Model Choice on Prognostics Performance

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The success of model-based approaches to systems health management depends largely on the quality of the underly- ing models. In model-based prognostics, it is...

  10. Climate change and voltinism in Californian insect pest species: sensitivity to location, scenario and climate model choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziter, Carly; Robinson, Emily A; Newman, Jonathan A

    2012-09-01

    Experimental studies of the impact of climatic change are hampered by their inability to consider multiple climate change scenarios and indeed often consider no more than simple climate sensitivity such as a uniform increase in temperature. Modelling efforts offer the ability to consider a much wider range of realistic climate projections and are therefore useful, in particular, for estimating the sensitivity of impact predictions to differences in geographical location, and choice of climate change scenario and climate model projections. In this study, we used well-established degree-day models to predict the voltinism of 13 agronomically important pests in California, USA. We ran these models using the projections from three Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Global Circulation Models (AOCGCMs or GCMs), in conjunction with the SRES scenarios. We ran these for two locations representing northern and southern California. We did this for both the 2050s and 2090s. We used anova to partition the variation in the resulting voltinism among time period, climate change scenario, GCM and geographical location. For these 13 pest species, the choice of climate model explained an average of 42% of the total variation in voltinism, far more than did geographical location (33%), time period (17%) or scenario (1%). The remaining 7% of the variation was explained by various interactions, of which the location by GCM interaction was the strongest (5%). Regardless of these sources of uncertainty, a robust conclusion from our work is that all 13 pest species are likely to experience increases in the number of generations that they complete each year. Such increased voltinism is likely to have significant consequences for crop protection and production. PMID:24501055

  11. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2010-01-01

    This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications...

  12. The application of the random regret minimization model to drivers’ choice of crash avoidance maneuvers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    (GES) crash database for the period between 2005 and 2009. The predictive ability of the RRM-based model is slightly superior to its RUM-based counterpart, namely the multinomial logit model (MNL) model. The marginal effects predicted by the RRM-based model are greater than those predicted by the RUM...

  13. The application of the random regret minimization model to drivers’ choice of crash avoidance maneuvers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    (GES) crash database for the period between 2005 and 2009. The predictive ability of the RRM-based model is slightly superior to its RUM-based counterpart, namely the multinomial logit model (MNL) model. The marginal effects predicted by the RRM-based model are greater than those predicted by the RUM...

  14. AN EVALUATION OF SELECTED DECISION MODELS: A CASE OF CROP CHOICE IN NORTHERN THAILAND

    OpenAIRE

    Vieth, Gary R.; Suppapanya, Pramote

    1996-01-01

    This research examines the predictability of a profit maximization model, an expected value-variance utility maximization (E-V) model, and two versions of the target-MOTAD model for modeling risky agricultural production decisions. Model solutions were translated into expected value and variance of farm income for analysis. Direct comparison and chi-square analysis of actual and predicted expected income distributions were used in the analyses. It was concluded that the utility maximization a...

  15. ADAPTATION OF THE MODEL OF BINARY DECISION MATRIX TO THE PROBLEM OF THE CHOICE THE TECHNOLOGY OF CULTIVATION CROPS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loyko V. I.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Grain is of strategic importance and is the basis for food security. The gross national product share of grain and its products is about 10-15%. It always stands out from other types of raw materials, as it is used to produce the most popular daily foods. According to the characteristics of management in agriculture, it should be emphasized that the absence of objective and timely information at all stages of production of the plant-breeding, and as a result, non-optimal choice of technology of cultivation of agricultural crops, might result in the fact that the cost of labor and material resources increases significantly, the company does not receive profits, and sometimes suffers losses. When selecting cultivation technology for agricultural crops, an agronomist has a database of more than a hundred times-personal of alternative technologies for each crop. It is up to the decision-maker (DMP to find specific criteria to select the most suitable (for the owners and the climatic zone technology of cultivating for the culture. These circumstances explain the relevance of in-depth research of economic and mathematical models and methods of analysis and evaluation of the economic efficiency of technologies of cultivation agricultural crops. The article deals with the process of adaptation and the possibility of using the model and the method of binary matrices to solve the problem of the choice for cropping technology

  16. End use technology choice in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS): An analysis of the residential and commercial building sectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is arguably the most influential energy model in the United States. The U.S. Energy Information Administration uses NEMS to generate the federal government's annual long-term forecast of national energy consumption and to evaluate prospective federal energy policies. NEMS is considered such a standard tool that other models are calibrated to its forecasts, in both government and academic practice. As a result, NEMS has a significant influence over expert opinions of plausible energy futures. NEMS is a massively detailed model whose inner workings, despite its prominence, receive relatively scant critical attention. This paper analyzes how NEMS projects energy demand in the residential and commercial sectors. In particular, we focus on the role of consumers' preferences and financial constraints, investigating how consumers choose appliances and other end-use technologies. We identify conceptual issues in the approach the model takes to the same question across both sectors. Running the model with a range of consumer preferences, we estimate the extent to which this issue impacts projected consumption relative to the baseline model forecast for final energy demand in the year 2035. In the residential sector, the impact ranges from a decrease of 0.73 quads (− 6.0%) to an increase of 0.24 quads (+ 2.0%). In the commercial sector, the impact ranges from a decrease of 1.0 quads (− 9.0%) to an increase of 0.99 quads (+ 9.0%). - Highlights: • This paper examines the impact of consumer preferences on final energy in the Commercial and Residential sectors of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). • We describe the conceptual and empirical basis for modeling consumer technology choice in NEMS. • We offer a range of alternative parameters to show the energy demand sensitivity to technology choice. • We show there are significant potential savings available in both building sectors. • Because the model uses its own

  17. The consumer choice model: a humane reconstruction of the U.S. health care system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coulter, C H

    2000-01-01

    "Consumer choice," "defined contribution health programs," "voucher systems," and "health marts" are variations on a theme: employees buying their own health care. This new approach to health care purchasing, which is designed to minimize the role of employers, is being proposed by an array of economists and by both Republican and Democratic legislators as the best way to address the nation's health care ills. Although enabling national legislation is unlikely to pass soon, the debate will nevertheless change the face of health care in America. The prospect is reminiscent of the debate over "Clinton Care" in 1993--although legislation was never passed, managed care rapidly came to dominate the U.S. health care system. As this reform takes hold, beneficiaries will make their own health plan selections but will have more responsibility and may bear more cost. Providers will have to adapt to new, customer-driven requirements for performance, accountability, and communications but will also find opportunities in a marketplace that they will have a major role in shaping. Physicians, health plans, and insurers should understand how these proposals will transform their role in health care. PMID:10847942

  18. Food and energy choices for India: a programming model with partial endogenous energy requirements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parikh, K.S.; Srinivasan, T.N.

    1977-12-01

    Choices available to India over the next three decades in the energy and agricultural sectors are examined. India's energy consumption per capita is very low, being of the order of 700 kg of coal replacement while that of the USA is over 11,000 kg. The per capita consumption in Western Europe is in the range of 3000 to 6000 kg. Nearly 50 percent of the energy consumed in India is obtained from noncommercial sources such as firewood, agricultural wastes, and animal dung, whereas in high-income countries this proportion is negligible. The pattern of end use of energy in India is also quite different from that of advanced countries. Nearly 90 percent of the energy required for household cooking is supplied by noncommercial sources in India. Petroleum products account for a little over 70 percent of the energy needs of the transport sector, while in advanced countries this proportion exceeds 90 percent. Another feature of the Indian energy scene is the use in agriclture--mainly for irrigation and partly in terms of chemical fertilizers--of significant amounts of electricity and oil, amounting to nearly 10 percent of the total electricity use and 5 percent of oil. Altogether the transport, agriculture, and domestic sectors of the Indian economy account for more than 55 percent of commercial energy consumption and almost all of noncommercial energy consumption. In this paper, the alternatives available to these sectors only are explored.

  19. The Malleability of Intertemporal Choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempert, Karolina M; Phelps, Elizabeth A

    2016-01-01

    Intertemporal choices are ubiquitous: people often have to choose between outcomes realized at different times. Although it is generally believed that people have stable tendencies toward being impulsive or patient, an emerging body of evidence indicates that intertemporal choice is malleable and can be profoundly influenced by context. How the choice is framed, or the state of the decision-maker at the time of choice, can induce a shift in preference. Framing effects are underpinned by allocation of attention to choice attributes, reference dependence, and time construal. Incidental affective states and prospection also influence intertemporal choice. We advocate that intertemporal choice models account for these context effects, and encourage the use of this knowledge to nudge people toward making more advantageous choices. PMID:26483153

  20. On the choice of electromagnetic model for short high-intensity arcs, applied to welding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We have considered four different approaches for modelling the electromagnetic fields of high-intensity electric arcs: (i) three-dimensional, (ii) two-dimensional axi-symmetric, (iii) the electric potential formulation and (iv) the magnetic field formulation. The underlying assumptions and the differences between these models are described in detail. Models (i) to (iii) reduce to the same limit for an axi-symmetric configuration with negligible radial current density, contrary to model (iv). Models (i) to (iii) were retained and implemented in the open source CFD software OpenFOAM. The simulation results were first validated against the analytic solution of an infinite electric rod. Perfect agreement was obtained for all the models tested. The electromagnetic models (i) to (iii) were then coupled with thermal fluid mechanics, and applied to axi-symmetric gas tungsten arc welding test cases with short arc (2, 3 and 5 mm) and truncated conical electrode tip. Models (i) and (ii) lead to the same simulation results, but not model (iii). Model (iii) is suited in the specific limit of long axi-symmetric arc with negligible electrode tip effect, i.e. negligible radial current density. For short axi-symmetric arc with significant electrode tip effect, the more general axi-symmetric formulation of model (ii) should instead be used. (paper)

  1. The significance of the choice of radiobiological (NTCP) models in treatment plan objective functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: A Clinician's discrimination between radiation therapy treatment plans is traditionally a subjective process, based on experience and existing protocols. A more objective and quantitative approach to distinguish between treatment plans is to use radiobiological or dosimetric objective functions, based on radiobiological or dosimetric models. The efficacy of models is not well understood, nor is the correlation of the rank of plans resulting from the use of models compared to the traditional subjective approach. One such radiobiological model is the Normal Tissue Complication Probability (NTCP). Dosimetric models or indicators are more accepted in clinical practice. In this study, three radiobiological models, Lyman NTCP, critical volume NTCP and relative seriality NTCP, and three dosimetric models, Mean Lung Dose (MLD) and the Lung volumes irradiated at lOGy (V|0) and 20Gy (V20), were used to rank a series of treatment plans using, harm to normal (Lung) tissue as the objective criterion. None of the models considered in this study showed consistent correlation with the Radiation Oncologists plan ranking. If radiobiological or dosimetric models are to be used in objective functions for lung treatments, based on this study it is recommended that the Lyman NTCP model be used because it will provide most consistency with traditional clinician ranking.

  2. How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars. Part 1. Model structure, simulation of bounded rationality, and model validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article presents an agent-based microsimulation capable of forecasting the effects of policy levers that influence individual choices of new passenger cars. The fundamental decision-making units are households distinguished by sociodemographic characteristics and car ownership. A two-stage model of individual decision processes is employed. In the first stage, individual choice sets are constructed using simple, non-compensatory rules that are based on previously owned cars. Second, decision makers evaluate alternatives in their individual choice set using a multi-attributive weighting rule. The attribute weights are based on a multinomial logit model for cross-country policy analysis in European countries. Additionally, prospect theory and the notion of mental accounting are used to model the perception of monetary values. The microsimulation forecasts actual market observations with high accuracy, both on the level of aggregate market characteristics as well as on a highly resolved level of distributions of market shares. The presented approach is useful for the assessment of policies that influence individual purchase decisions of new passenger cars; it allows accounting for a highly resolved car fleet and differentiated consumer segments. As a result, the complexity of incentive schemes can be represented and detailed structural changes can be investigated. (author)

  3. Education choices in Mexico: using a structural model and a randomized experiment to evaluate Progresa

    OpenAIRE

    Attanasio, O.P.; Meghir, C.; A. de Santiago

    2010-01-01

    This discussion paper was presented in the seminar "First Meeting of the Social Policy Monitoring Network: Conditional Cash-Transfer Programs". In this paper the authors use an economic model to analyze data from a major randomized social experiment, namely PROGRESA in Mexico, and to evaluate its impact on school participation. They show the usefulness of using experimental data to estimate a structural economic model as well as the importance of a structural model in interpreting experimenta...

  4. Carbon Dynamics and Land-use Choices: Building a Regional-scale Multidisciplinary Model

    OpenAIRE

    2003-01-01

    Policy enabling tropical forests to approach their potential contribution to global-climate-change mitigation requires forecasts of land use and carbon storage on a large scale over long periods. In this paper, we present an integrated modeling methodology that addresses these needs. We model the dynamics of the human land-use system and of C pools contained in each ecosystem, as well as their interactions. The model is national scale, and is currently applied in a preliminary way to Costa Ri...

  5. Modelling public transport route choice, with multiple access and egress modes

    OpenAIRE

    Brands, T.; De Romph, E.; Veitch, T; Cook, J

    2014-01-01

    Public transport (PT) is important, because the current traffic system faces well known problems like congestion, environmental impact and use of public space. To be able to assess the effects of policy measures properly, it is necessary to model the behavior of the (PT) traveler in a realistic way. An aspect that lacks realism in a lot of current models is the rigid separation between modes: within the model a traveler cannot choose to switch between modes, so multimodal trips that combine a...

  6. Predicting how People Play Games: a Simple Dynamic Model of Choice.

    OpenAIRE

    Sarin, R.; Vahid, F.

    1999-01-01

    We use the model developed in Sarin and Vahid (1999, GEB) to explain the experiments reported in Erev and Roth (1998, AER). The model supposes that players maximize subject to their "beliefs" which are non-probabilistic and scalar-valued. They are intended to describe the payoffs the players subjectively assess they will obtain from a strategy. In an earlier paper (Sarin and Vahid (1997) we showed that the model predicted behaviour in repeated coordination games remarkably well, and better th...

  7. A choice modelling analysis on the similarity between distribution utilities' and industrial customers' price and quality preferences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Swedish Electricity Act states that electricity distribution must comply with both price and quality requirements. In order to maintain efficient regulation it is necessary to firstly, define quality attributes and secondly, determine a customer's priorities concerning price and quality attributes. If distribution utilities gain an understanding of customer preferences and incentives for reporting them, the regulator can save a lot of time by surveying them rather than their customers. This study applies a choice modelling methodology where utilities and industrial customers are asked to evaluate the same twelve choice situations in which price and four specific quality attributes are varied. The preferences expressed by the utilities, and estimated by a random parameter logit, correspond quite well with the preferences expressed by the largest industrial customers. The preferences expressed by the utilities are reasonably homogenous in relation to forms of association (private limited, public and trading partnership). If the regulator acts according to the preferences expressed by the utilities, smaller industrial customers will have to pay for quality they have not asked for. (author)

  8. Cognitive Models of Risky Choice: Parameter Stability and Predictive Accuracy of Prospect Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glockner, Andreas; Pachur, Thorsten

    2012-01-01

    In the behavioral sciences, a popular approach to describe and predict behavior is cognitive modeling with adjustable parameters (i.e., which can be fitted to data). Modeling with adjustable parameters allows, among other things, measuring differences between people. At the same time, parameter estimation also bears the risk of overfitting. Are…

  9. Presenting Thin Media Models Affects Women's Choice of Diet or Normal Snacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krahe, Barbara; Krause, Christina

    2010-01-01

    Our study explored the influence of thin- versus normal-size media models and of self-reported restrained eating behavior on women's observed snacking behavior. Fifty female undergraduates saw a set of advertisements for beauty products showing either thin or computer-altered normal-size female models, allegedly as part of a study on effective…

  10. Hard Choice

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    The international community is still faced with the difficult choice of how to finally solve the North Korean nuclear crisis after the new UN resolution After intensive consultations, members of the UN Security Council finally worked out a multilateral response to North Korea's recent nuclear test with the adoption of Resolution 1718 on October 14. Despite the strict economic sanctions it imposes on North Korea under ChapterⅦof the Charter of the

  11. Effects of Peer Models' Food Choices and Eating Behaviors on Preschoolers' Food Preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birch, Leann Lipps

    1980-01-01

    The influence of peer models' food selections and eating behaviors on preschoolers' food preferences was investigated. Thirty-nine preschool children's preferences for vegetables were assessed. (Author/MP)

  12. A Dynamic Model of Brand Choice When Price and Advertising Signal Product Quality

    OpenAIRE

    Tülin Erdem; Keane, Michael P.; Baohong Sun

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a structural model of household behavior in an environment where there is uncertainty about brand attributes and both prices and advertising signal brand quality. Four quality signaling mechanisms are at work: (1) price signals quality, (2) advertising frequency signals quality, (3) advertising content provides direct (but noisy) information about quality, and (4) use experience provides direct (but noisy) information about quality. We estimate our proposed model usi...

  13. I'll Have What She's Having: The Impact of Model Characteristics on Children's Food Choices

    OpenAIRE

    Frazier, Brandy N.; Gelman, Susan A.; Kaciroti, Niko; Russell, Joshua W.; Lumeng, Julie C.

    2011-01-01

    The current research investigates children's use of social categories in their food selection. Across three studies, we presented preschoolers with sets of photographs that contrasted food-eating models with different characteristics, including model gender, race (Black, White), age (child or adult), and/or expression (acceptance or rejection of the food). Children were asked to pick between the photographs to choose which food they would like for snack. Results demonstrated that preschoolers...

  14. Capital Requirements, Risk Choice, and Liquidity Provision in a Business Cycle Model

    OpenAIRE

    Begenau, Juliane Maria

    2015-01-01

    This paper develops a quantitative dynamic general equilibrium model in which households' preferences for safe and liquid assets constitute a violation of Modigliani and Miller. I show that the scarcity of these coveted assets created by increased bank capital requirements can reduce overall bank funding costs and increase bank lending. I quantify this mechanism in a two-sector business cycle model featuring a banking sector that provides liquidity and has excessive risk-taking incentives. Un...

  15. Household choices of child labor and schooling: a simple model with application to Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Kruger, Diana I.; Soares, Rodrigo Reis; Berthelon, Matias E.

    2007-01-01

    This paper develops and estimates a simple structural model of household decisions regarding child labor and schooling. We argue that part of the conflicting results from the previous literature related to the effect of improvements in economic conditions on child labor derives from the different income and substitution effects implicit in different types of income variation. Our model leads to an empirical specification where income and substitution effects can be clearly identified. We appl...

  16. 考虑偏好差异与备选方案相关性的居民出行方式选择模型%Travel Mode Choice Model Accounting for Individual Preference Heterogeneity and Correlation among Choice Alternatives

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨励雅; 赵鹏军

    2012-01-01

    为克服传统logit模型的ⅡA缺陷,构建合适的居民出行方式选择模型.尝试结合广义极值模型与潜在类别模型,选取出行费用、出行时间、停车费用及等待时间等作为方式选择效用变量,选取个人收入、出行目的与出行距离作为类属函数变量,构建一种区分潜在类别的配对巢式logit模型,该模型能同时刻画备选方式之间的相关性以及出行者的偏好差异.利用2005年北京市第三次居民出行调查数据,对模型参数进行估计和检验.参数估计结果表明:1)相较于传统MNL模型与不区分潜在类别的配对巢式logit模型,区分潜在类别的配对巢式logit模型具有更优的统计学特征;2)对出行费用敏感的出行者比例大于对出行时间敏感的出行者比例,提供交通服务时,降低费用将比缩短时间更为有效.%The authors proposed a new travel mode choice model to overcome the limitation of traditional logit model. Combining generalized extreme value model and latent class model, the authors present a modeling methodology capable of accounting for individual preference heterogeneity and correlation across choice alternatives. Travel cost, travel time, parking fee, and waiting time are defined as utility variables for mode choice, while individual income, travel purpose, and travel distance are selected as variables of segment membership function. This model can depict the correlation among choice alternatives and individual preference heterogeneity simultaneously. Using Beijing traffic survey data of 2005, the model parameters are estimated. Estimation results show that the latent class paired nested logit model outperforms the traditional models. Most travelers are cost-sensitive to travel modes, and thus strategies that reduce the travel cost can be more effective than reducing the travel time.

  17. The horizon effect of stock return predictability and model uncertainty on portfolio choice: UK evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Li, GuangJie

    2009-01-01

    We study how stock return's predictability and model uncertainty affect a rational buy-and-hold investor.s decision to allocate her wealth for different lengths of investment horizons in the UK market. We consider the FTSE All-Share Index as the risky asset, and the UK Treasury bill as the risk free asset in forming the investor's portfolio. We identify the most powerful predictors of the stock return by accounting for model uncertainty. We find that though stock return predictability is weak...

  18. Optimal technology choice and investment timing: A stochastic model of industrial cogeneration vs. heat-only production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper we develop an economic model that explains the decision-making problem under uncertainty of an industrial firm that wants to invest in a process technology. More specifically, the decision is between making an irreversible investment in a combined heat-and-power production (cogeneration) system, or to invest in a conventional heat-only generation system (steam boiler) and to purchase all electricity from the grid. In our model we include the main economic and technical variables of the investment decision process. We also account for the risk and uncertainty inherent in volatile energy prices that can greatly affect the valuation of the investment project. The dynamic stochastic model presented allows us to simultaneously determine the optimal technology choice and investment timing. We apply the theoretical model and illustrate our main findings with a numerical example that is based on realistic cost values for industrial oil- or gas-fired cogeneration and heat-only generation in Switzerland. We also briefly discuss expected effects of a CO2 tax on the investment decision

  19. Choice of blood rheology model has minor impact on computational assessment of shear stress mediated vascular risk

    CERN Document Server

    Bernabeu, Miguel O; Groen, Derek; Carver, Hywel B; Hetherington, James; Krüger, Timm; Coveney, Peter V

    2012-01-01

    Perturbations to the homeostatic distribution of mechanical forces exerted by blood on the endothelial layer have been correlated with vascular pathologies including intracranial aneurysms and atherosclerosis. Recent computational work suggests that in order to correctly characterise such forces, the shear-thinning properties of blood must be taken into account. To the best of our knowledge, these findings have never been compared against experimentally observed pathological thresholds. In the current work, we apply the three-band diagram (TBD) analysis due to Gizzi et al. to assess the impact of the choice of blood rheology model on a computational model of the right middle cerebral artery. Our results show that the differences between the wall shear stress predicted by a Newtonian model and the well known Carreau-Yasuda generalized Newtonian model are only significant if the vascular pathology under study is associated with a pathological threshold in the range 0.94 Pa to 1.56 Pa, where the results of the T...

  20. MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF DECISIONMAKING SYSTEM INTEGRATION IN THE MULTIPLE CHOICE ALTERNATIVES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Halizev V. N.

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the models and the methods of the market of the proposed sub-systems and equipment, based on the analysis of the requirements for security to choose the best solution for the synthesis of the integrated security system

  1. AN APPLICATION OF CHOICE MODELING TO MEASURE U.S. CONSUMER PREFERENCES FOR GENETICALLY MODIFIED FOODS

    OpenAIRE

    Onyango, Benjamin M.; Govindasamy, Ramu; Nayga, Rodolfo M.

    2004-01-01

    Food biotechnology promises to deliver a wide range of enhanced consumer benefits. This study models consumer's willingness to trade-off the potential risks of GM foods with the possibility of extracting significant benefits. It estimates the marginal effects and relationships between product characteristics and consumer attributes on acceptance of GM foods.

  2. The role of preference axioms and respondent behaviour in statistical models for discrete choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hougaard, Jens Leth; Tjur, Tue; Østerdal, Lars Peter

    2004-01-01

    , ordering effects, dominance, etc. Unfortunatelythere seems to be some confusion about what is actually being tested,and the link between the statistical tests performed and the relevantunderlying model of respondent behaviour has not been explored inthis literature. The present paper tries to clarify the...

  3. Model and measurement methodology for the analysis of consumer choice of foods products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Wierenga (Berend)

    1983-01-01

    textabstractThe consumer can be conceived as an imperfect problem solver. Consumer behavior with respect to food products is purposive, but the consumer is bounded by limitations of information, cognitive skills, memory and time. From this starting point, this paper develops a model of the process b

  4. Modelling Public Transport Route Choice, with Multiple Access and Egress Modes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brands, T.; De Romph, E.; Veitch, T.; Cook, J.

    2014-01-01

    Public transport (PT) is important, because the current traffic system faces well known problems like congestion, environmental impact and use of public space. To be able to assess the effects of policy measures properly, it is necessary to model the behavior of the (PT) traveler in a realistic way.

  5. Reciprocal Markov Modeling of Feedback Mechanisms Between Emotion and Dietary Choice Using Experience-Sampling Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Ji; Pan, Junhao; Zhang, Qiang; Dubé, Laurette; Ip, Edward H

    2015-01-01

    With intensively collected longitudinal data, recent advances in the experience-sampling method (ESM) benefit social science empirical research, but also pose important methodological challenges. As traditional statistical models are not generally well equipped to analyze a system of variables that contain feedback loops, this paper proposes the utility of an extended hidden Markov model to model reciprocal the relationship between momentary emotion and eating behavior. This paper revisited an ESM data set (Lu, Huet, & Dube, 2011) that observed 160 participants' food consumption and momentary emotions 6 times per day in 10 days. Focusing on the analyses on feedback loop between mood and meal-healthiness decision, the proposed reciprocal Markov model (RMM) can accommodate both hidden ("general" emotional states: positive vs. negative state) and observed states (meal: healthier, same or less healthy than usual) without presuming independence between observations and smooth trajectories of mood or behavior changes. The results of RMM analyses illustrated the reciprocal chains of meal consumption and mood as well as the effect of contextual factors that moderate the interrelationship between eating and emotion. A simulation experiment that generated data consistent with the empirical study further demonstrated that the procedure is promising in terms of recovering the parameters. PMID:26717120

  6. Modeling choice and reaction time during arbitrary visuomotor learning through the coordination of adaptive working memory and reinforcement learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viejo, Guillaume; Khamassi, Mehdi; Brovelli, Andrea; Girard, Benoît

    2015-01-01

    Current learning theory provides a comprehensive description of how humans and other animals learn, and places behavioral flexibility and automaticity at heart of adaptive behaviors. However, the computations supporting the interactions between goal-directed and habitual decision-making systems are still poorly understood. Previous functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) results suggest that the brain hosts complementary computations that may differentially support goal-directed and habitual processes in the form of a dynamical interplay rather than a serial recruitment of strategies. To better elucidate the computations underlying flexible behavior, we develop a dual-system computational model that can predict both performance (i.e., participants' choices) and modulations in reaction times during learning of a stimulus-response association task. The habitual system is modeled with a simple Q-Learning algorithm (QL). For the goal-directed system, we propose a new Bayesian Working Memory (BWM) model that searches for information in the history of previous trials in order to minimize Shannon entropy. We propose a model for QL and BWM coordination such that the expensive memory manipulation is under control of, among others, the level of convergence of the habitual learning. We test the ability of QL or BWM alone to explain human behavior, and compare them with the performance of model combinations, to highlight the need for such combinations to explain behavior. Two of the tested combination models are derived from the literature, and the latter being our new proposal. In conclusion, all subjects were better explained by model combinations, and the majority of them are explained by our new coordination proposal. PMID:26379518

  7. Interplay between Point-Group Symmetries and the Choice of the Bloch Basis in Multiband Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiang-Hua Wang

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the point-group symmetries of generic multiband tight-binding models with respect to the transformation properties of the effective interactions. While the vertex functions in the orbital language may transform non-trivially under point-group operations, their point-group behavior in the band language can be simplified by choosing a suitable Bloch basis. We first give two analytically accessible examples. Then, we show that, for a large class of models, a natural Bloch basis exists, in which the vertex functions in the band language transform trivially under all point-group operations. As a consequence, the point-group symmetries can be used to reduce the computational effort in perturbative many-particle approaches, such as the functional renormalization group.

  8. On the choice of appropriate development strategy: Insights from CGE modelling of the Mozambican economy

    OpenAIRE

    Tarp Jensen, Henning; Tarp, Finn

    2001-01-01

    This paper makes use of a 1997 computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyse three potential strategies that Mozambique can pursue unilaterally with a view to initiating a sustainable development process. They include (i) an agriculture-first strategy, (ii) an agricultural-development led industrialization (ADLI) strategy, and (iii) a primary-sector export-oriented strategy. The ADLI strategy dominates the other development strategies since important synergy effects in aggregate welfa...

  9. Sustainable Mobility: Using a Global Energy Model to Inform Vehicle Technology Choices in a Decarbonized Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Timothy Wallington; Margaret Whalen; Erica Klampfl; Maria Grahn

    2013-01-01

    The reduction of CO 2 emissions associated with vehicle use is an important element of a global transition to sustainable mobility and is a major long-term challenge for society. Vehicle and fuel technologies are part of a global energy system, and assessing the impact of the availability of clean energy technologies and advanced vehicle technologies on sustainable mobility is a complex task. The global energy transition (GET) model accounts for interactions between the different energy secto...

  10. Encouraging Sustainable Transport Choices in American Households: Results from an Empirically Grounded Agent-Based Model

    OpenAIRE

    Davide Natalini; Giangiacomo Bravo

    2013-01-01

    The transport sector needs to go through an extended process of decarbonisation to counter the threat of climate change. Unfortunately, the International Energy Agency forecasts an enormous growth in the number of cars and greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Two issues can thus be identified: (1) the need for a new methodology that could evaluate the policy performances ex-ante and (2) the need for more effective policies. To help address these issues, we developed an Agent-Based Model called ...

  11. Adolescent Food Choice: Developing and Evaluating a Model of Parental Influence

    OpenAIRE

    Daniloski, Kimberly M

    2011-01-01

    The following research integrated the Theory of Planned Behavior with variables from the consumer socialization and parenting literatures to explore parental impact on adolescent food decision-making. Three specific types of parenting practices (expectation, monitoring, and inducement/enforcement behaviors), parenting style, and family communication style were investigated. A multi-method approach was taken to develop and test the integrated model. Study 1 used interviews to identify food-rel...

  12. A conceptual model of channel choice: measuring online and offline shopping value perceptions

    OpenAIRE

    Broekhuizen, Thijs L.J.; Jager, Wander

    2004-01-01

    This study tries to understand how consumers evaluate channels for their purchasing. Specifically, it develops a conceptual model that addresses consumer value perceptions of using the Internet versus the traditional (physical) channel. Previous research showed that perceptions of price, product quality, service quality and risk strongly influence perceived value and purchase intentions in the offline and online channel. Perceptions of online and offline buyers can be analyzed to see how valu...

  13. Individual Choice in a residential building and heating model - An application case for Germany

    OpenAIRE

    Bauermann, Klaas; Weber, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    In Germany and other Central and Northern European countries, energy demand for space heating dominates the energy demand of households. In line with European and national energy efficiency and emission reduction objectives, policy makers have identified the residential building sector potentials for the achieving of reduction targets. This paper presents an extended logit model approach for the residential heating market with special regard to the development of the built environment and the...

  14. A Model of Adolescents’ Seeking of Sexual Content in their Media Choices

    OpenAIRE

    Bleakley, Amy; Hennessy, Michael; Fishbein, Martin

    2011-01-01

    This paper reports on the extent to which adolescents report actively seeking sexual content in media, identifies from which media they report seeking, estimates the association between seeking sexual information and romantic and sexual behavior, and shows that active seeking of sexual content in media sources is explained by an intention to seek such content using the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction, a reasoned action approach. The data are a national sample of 810 adolescents age...

  15. Study on a model of street vended food choices by Korean high school students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Kiwoong; Park, Sanghyun; Joo, Nami

    2011-10-01

    Street vended food (SVF) includes food and beverages prepared and sold outdoors or in public areas by street merchants for consumption on the scene or later without further preparation. Due to its low price and convenience, SVF has been popular in Korea for a long time, particularly with high school students. Beyond Korea, SVF is also popular in southeast Asia and southern Africa in the form of ready-to-eat food. This study on high school students, who are main consumers of SVF in Korea, focused on the factors that affect consumer loyalty. The study was performed by questionnaire and used AMOS software to develop a structural equation model. The results of verifying the model's fidelity were χ(2) = 685.989, df = 261, GFI = 0.851, AGFI = 0.814, NFI = 0.901, CFI = 0.907, RMR = 0.048, indicating a satisfying structural model. SVF quality and service, emotional response, and the physical environment had a statistically significant effect on consumer loyalty. In contrast, SVF sanitation had no statistically significant effect on consumer loyalty. Based on these results, the sanitary management of SVF needs to be addressed immediately combined with education for SVF providers to maintain a clean environment. PMID:22125687

  16. The Drift Diffusion Model can account for the accuracy and reaction time of value-based choices under high and low time pressure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milica Milosavljevic

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available An important open problem is how values are compared to make simple choices. A natural hypothesis is that the brain carries out the computations associated with the value comparisons in a manner consistent with the Drift Diffusion Model (DDM, since this model has been able to account for a large amount of data in other domains. We investigated the ability of four different versions of the DDM to explain the data in a real binary food choice task under conditions of high and low time pressure. We found that a seven-parameter version of the DDM can account for the choice and reaction time data with high-accuracy, in both the high and low time pressure conditions. The changes associated with the introduction of time pressure could be traced to changes in two key model parameters: the barrier height and the noise in the slope of the drift process.

  17. Choosing a Virtual World Platform for Teaching: “VICERO” - A Scoring Model Aiding the Right Choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Erenli

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available When asking which Virtual World to use for educational purposes, people most often want to hear a one- sentence answer. Frequently the question leads to a discussion that can be compared to a debate about religion: you cannot be too sure which side you will choose but you are easily doomed from the beginning if you pick the wrong side (or in this case, platform. To help educators pick the right Virtual World platform we have developed a Scoring Model and Criteria Catalogue which support choosing the most suitable platform for teaching purposes. Educators can use the Scoring Model to rate the criteria based on their respective demand. The Scoring Model will then suggest a Virtual World platform from a “long list” and instruct the educator how to install/use/maintain the platform. Thus educators will not be left alone with their choice and will get a motivational hint where to start and where to seek support. The “long list” is monitored and updated regularly so that selections are always up-to-date.

  18. A Segment-Level Model of Category Volume and Brand Choice

    OpenAIRE

    William R Dillon; Sunil Gupta

    1996-01-01

    It is an everyday marketplace occurrence that brands lose and gain share. However, a brand's sales gain or loss can be attributable to very different factors, and thus understanding the sources of sales gain or loss would seem to be an important aspect of a brand manager's job. The primary purpose of this research is to develop a model that can answer the following questions: (i) What are the sources of gain or loss of a brand's sales due to category volume and brand switching? (ii) What cons...

  19. Modelling choice and reaction time during arbitrary visuomotor learning through the coordination of adaptive working memory andreinforcement learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume eViejo

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Current learning theory provides a comprehensive description of how we and other animalslearn, and places behavioral flexibility and automaticity at heart of adaptive behaviors. However, the computations supporting the interactions between goal-directed and habitual decision-making systems are still poorly understood. Previous functional magnetic resonance imaging(fMRI results suggest that the brain hosts complementary computations that may differentiallysupport goal-directed and habitual processes in the form of a dynamical interplay rather than aserial recruitment of strategies. To better elucidate the computations underlying flexible behavior, we develop a dual-system computational model which can predict both performance (i.e.,participants’ choices and modulations in reaction times during learning of a stimulus-response association task. The habitual system is modelled with a simple Q-learning algorithm (QL.For the goal-directed system, we propose a new Bayesian Working Memory (BWM modelwhich searches for information in the history of previous trials in order to minimize Shannonentropy. We propose a model for QL and BWM coordination such that the expensive memorymanipulation is under control of, among others, the level of convergence of the habitual learning.We test the ability of QL or BWM alone to explain human behavior, and compare them with theperformance of model combinations, to highlight the need for such combinations to explainbehavior. Two of the tested combination models are derived from the literature, the latter beingour new proposal. In conclusion, all subjects were better explained by model combinations, andthe majority of them by our new coordination proposal.

  20. Human Aspects of Route Choice Behavior: Incorporating Perceptions, Learning Trends, Latent Classes, and Personality Traits in the Modeling of Driver Heterogeneity in Route Choice Behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Tawfik, Aly M.; Rakha, Hesham A.

    2012-01-01

    Driver heterogeneity in travel behavior has repeatedly been cited in the literature as a limitation that needs to be addressed. In this work, driver heterogeneity is addressed from four different perspectives. First, driver heterogeneity is addressed by models of driver perceptions of travel conditions: travel distance, time, and speed. Second, it is addressed from the perspective of driver learning trends and models of driver-types. Driver type is not commonly used in the vernacular of trans...

  1. Step out the Paradox of Livable City Studies:Conceptual Model and Path Choice

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Based on a comparative analysis on the concepts and standards of livable city in China and abroad,the paper creates a conceptual model and a fundamental formula for livable city development with economic development as the foundation,and the social and cultural conditions,the ecological status,and the city governance as three pillars,so as to provide a theoretical explanation for the two paradoxes of livable city.The paper suggests that China should choose Path C,which combines economic development with city livability.It also analyzes the development rules of livable city under Path C,and talks about the fundamental ideas of livable city construction under the current circumstances in China.In the end,the paper puts forward related planning strategies in terms of spatial structure,ecological environment,cultural construction,transportation system,and housing system,in order to establish a livable city development model that is suitable for China’s practical conditions.

  2. Encouraging Sustainable Transport Choices in American Households: Results from an Empirically Grounded Agent-Based Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Davide Natalini

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The transport sector needs to go through an extended process of decarbonisation to counter the threat of climate change. Unfortunately, the International Energy Agency forecasts an enormous growth in the number of cars and greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Two issues can thus be identified: (1 the need for a new methodology that could evaluate the policy performances ex-ante and (2 the need for more effective policies. To help address these issues, we developed an Agent-Based Model called Mobility USA aimed at: (1 testing whether this could be an effective approach in analysing ex-ante policy implementation in the transport sector; and (2 evaluating the effects of alternative policy scenarios on commuting behaviours in the USA. Particularly, we tested the effects of two sets of policies, namely market-based and preference-change ones. The model results suggest that this type of agent-based approach will provide a useful tool for testing policy interventions and their effectiveness.

  3. Linking electricity and water models to assess electricity choices at water-relevant scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hydrology/water management and electricity generation projections have been modeled separately, but there has been little effort in intentionally and explicitly linking the two sides of the water–energy nexus. This paper describes a platform for assessing power plant cooling water withdrawals and consumption under different electricity pathways at geographic and time scales appropriate for both electricity and hydrology/water management. This platform uses estimates of regional electricity generation by the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) as input to a hydrologic and water management model—the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system. In WEAP, this electricity use represents thermoelectric cooling water withdrawals and consumption within the broader, regional water resource context. Here we describe linking the electricity and water models, including translating electricity generation results from ReEDS-relevant geographies to the water-relevant geographies of WEAP. The result of this analysis is water use by the electric sector at the regional watershed level, which is used to examine the water resource implications of these electricity pathways. (letter)

  4. Hard choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furedi, A

    1999-01-01

    The cultural discourse that frames the abortion debate has changed and become more complex over the years. To date, concerns about the need to defend the choice have shifted to moral and ethical issues surrounding abortion. The right of women to abortion can be situated in the context of ethical principles, which are basic to what we hold valuable in the modern society. The ethical principle of "procreative autonomy", the right of humans to control their own role in procreation has an unusually significant place in modern political culture in which human dignity was an important feature. Central to human dignity was the principle that "people possess the moral right and responsibility to answer the basic questions about the value and meaning of their own lives." Another crucial issue is the need to defend the "bodily autonomy" of women. Forcing women to support the fetus against her will flies against such principles as the need for voluntary consent to medical treatment. These arguments do not suggest for a moral indifference towards abortion choices, but as Ronald Dworkin argues, "tolerance is a cost we must pay for our adventure in liberty." PMID:12178906

  5. Don't Work, Work at Home, or Commute? Discrete Choice Models of the Decision for San Francisco Bay Area Residents

    OpenAIRE

    Mokhtarian, Patricia L; Ory, David T

    2005-01-01

    Using socio-demographic, personality, and attitudinal data from 1,680 residents of the San Francisco Bay Area, we develop and estimate binary, multinomial, and nested logit models of the choice to work or not, whether or not to work at home, and whether to commute all of the time or some of the time (either by only working part time, or by working a compressed work week, or by telecommuting some of the time). To our knowledge, these are the first models of all these choices simultaneously. Th...

  6. Don’t Work, Work at Home, or Commute? Discrete Choice Models of the Decision for San Francisco Bay Area Residents

    OpenAIRE

    Ory, D T; Mokhtarian, Patricia L

    2005-01-01

    Using socio-demographic, personality, and attitudinal data from 1,680 residents of the San Francisco Bay Area, we develop and estimate binary, multinomial, and nested logit models of the choice to work or not, whether or not to work at home, and whether to commute all of the time or some of the time (either by only working part time, or by working a compressed work week, or by telecommuting some of the time). To our knowledge, these are the first models of all these choices simultaneously. Th...

  7. Modeling School Choice: A Comparison of Public, Private-Independent, Private-Religious and Home-Schooled Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belfield, Clive R.

    2004-01-01

    U.S. students now have four choices of schooling: public schooling, private-religious schooling, private-independent schooling, and home-schooling. Of these, home-schooling is the most novel: since legalization across the states in the last few decades, it has grown in importance and legitimacy as an alternative choice. Thus, it is now possible to…

  8. Testing the Choice Model of Social Cognitive Career Theory across Holland Themes: A Meta-Analytic Path Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheu, Hung-Bin; Lent, Robert W.; Brown, Steven D.; Miller, Matthew J.; Hennessy, Kelly D.; Duffy, Ryan D.

    2010-01-01

    Social cognitive career theory (SCCT; Lent, Brown, & Hackett, 1994) seeks to explain the factors that shape educational and vocational interests and choices. We used meta-analytic path analyses to synthesize data (from 1981 to 2008) relevant to SCCT's interest and choice hypotheses, organizing the literature according to Holland's (1997) broad…

  9. Re-evaluation of an animal model for ADHD using a free-operant choice task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pardey, Margery C; Homewood, Judi; Taylor, Alan; Cornish, Jennifer L

    2009-01-30

    Previous research using free-operant procedures have reported that the Spontaneously Hypertensive Rat (SHR) is more impulsive and inattentive than the Wistar-Kyoto (WKY) rat. Recently these behavioural differences have been suggested to be a consequence of differences in the overall activity of these strains. This study compared SHRs to WKYs on locomotor activity and delay sensitivity using a delayed reinforcement (DR) and extinction (EXT) task. SHRs maintained higher locomotor activity than WKYs, however no significant group differences were found on the total lever presses in the DR or EXT tasks. During the DR task, SHRs shifted to selecting the immediate small reinforcer significantly faster than WKYs as the delay increased. WKYs predominantly selected the lever previously associated with the delayed large reinforcer throughout the EXT task, while the SHRs showed no such preference. The significant group differences found on lever selection during the DR and EXT tasks suggests that SHRs are more sensitive to delays, therefore providing further support for the face validity of the SHR as an animal model of ADHD. PMID:18835408

  10. Policy Choice for Urban Low-carbon transportation in Beijing: Scenario Analysis Based on LEAP model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yu

    2016-04-01

    Beijing is a fast developing megacity with serious traffic problems, such as high energy consumption, high CO2 emission and traffic congestion. The coming 13th Five-Year Plan for Beijing economic and social development will focus on the low-carbon transportation policy to achieve the urban traffic sustainable development. In order to improve the feasibility of urban low-carbon transportation policies, this paper analyzes the future trends of CO2 emissions from transportation of Beijing. Firstly, five policies scenarios are developed according to the coming Beijing 13th Five-Year Plan, including the "Business As Usual (BAU)", the "Public Transportation Priority(PTP)", the "New Energy Vehicle(NEV)", the "Active Transportation(AT)", the "Private Car Regulation(PCR)" and the "Hybrid Policy(HP)". Then the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP model) framework is adopted to estimate CO2 emission under given policies scenarios up to year 2020 and analyze the implications. The results demonstrate that the low-carbon transportation policies can reduce CO2 emission effectively. Specifically, the "Hybrid Policy(HP)" has the best performance. In terms of single policy effect, the "Private Car Regulation(PCR)" comes first followed by the "Public Transportation Priority(PTP)".

  11. The effect of material choice on biofilm formation in a model warm water distribution system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waines, Paul L; Moate, Roy; Moody, A John; Allen, Mike; Bradley, Graham

    2011-11-01

    Water distribution systems (WDS) are composed of a variety of materials and may harbour potential pathogens within surface-attached microbial biofilms. Biofilm formation on four plumbing materials, viz. copper, stainless steel 316 (SS316), ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) and cross-linked polyethylene (PEX), was investigated using scanning electron microscope (SEM)/confocal microscopy, ATP-/culture-based analysis, and molecular analysis. Material 'inserts' were incorporated into a mains water fed, model WDS. All materials supported biofilm growth to various degrees. After 84 days, copper and SS316 showed no significant overall differences in terms of the level of biofilm formation observed, whilst PEX supported a significantly higher level of biofilm. EPDM exhibited gross contamination by a complex, multispecies biofilm, at a level significantly higher than was observed on the other materials, regardless of the analytical method used. PCR-DGGE analysis showed clear differences in the composition of the biofilm community on all materials after 84 days. The primary conclusion of this study has been to identify EPDM as a potentially unsuitable material for use as a major component in WDS. PMID:22117115

  12. Factors Determinants the Choice of Mobile Service Providers: Structural Equation Modeling Approach on Bangladeshi Consumers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahasanul Haque

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to find out what were the factors that may have played significant role to select the telecommunication service providers. In general this research has an intention to develop a research framework grounded on a strong theoretical and literature review background. The survey instruments employed on Bangladeshi consumers included demographic background, price, service quality, product quality and availability and promotional offers for consumer perception. Thus the structural equation modeling approach was necessary in order to examine the variables. The data analysis was conducted using SPSS and AMOS (Analysis of Moment Structure with the software package for windows. From the result it is revealed that paths are related to the casual processes significantly. Among all the significant variables, from our result, Price is the most important among our respondents followed by Service quality, product quality and promotion. Further research should be considered to gather more information regarding the service quality and customers’ satisfaction dimensions in context of the Bangladeshi mobile phone operators. It is hoped that the findings of this study may assist mobile phone industry in Bangladesh about their services and promotion of their services. However, the findings of this study may provide needed feedback and contribute to the improvement of players’ strategy and their marketing program

  13. On the "Optimal" Choice of Trial Functions for Modelling Potential Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Volker

    2015-04-01

    There are many trial functions (e.g. on the sphere) available which can be used for the modelling of a potential field. Among them are orthogonal polynomials such as spherical harmonics and radial basis functions such as spline or wavelet basis functions. Their pros and cons have been widely discussed in the last decades. We present an algorithm, the Regularized Functional Matching Pursuit (RFMP), which is able to choose trial functions of different kinds in order to combine them to a stable approximation of a potential field. One main advantage of the RFMP is that the constructed approximation inherits the advantages of the different basis systems. By including spherical harmonics, coarse global structures can be represented in a sparse way. However, the additional use of spline basis functions allows a stable handling of scattered data grids. Furthermore, the inclusion of wavelets and scaling functions yields a multiscale analysis of the potential. In addition, ill-posed inverse problems (like a downward continuation or the inverse gravimetric problem) can be regularized with the algorithm. We show some numerical examples to demonstrate the possibilities which the RFMP provides.

  14. Choice of mouse strain influences the outcome in a mouse model of chemical-induced asthma.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanessa De Vooght

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The development of occupational asthma is the result of interactions between environmental factors and individual susceptibility. We assessed how our model of chemical-induced asthma is influenced by using different mouse strains. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: On days 1 and 8, male mice of 7 different strains (BALB/c, BP/2, A/J, C57Bl/6, DBA/2, CBA and AKR were dermally treated with toluene-2,4-diisocyanate (TDI (0.3% or vehicle (acetone/olive oil, AOO, 2:3 on each ear (20 microl. On day 15, they received an oropharyngeal instillation of TDI (0.01% or AOO (1:4. Airway reactivity to methacholine, total and differential cell counts in bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL and total serum IgE and IgG(2a levels were measured. Lymphocyte subpopulations in auricular lymph nodes and in vitro release of cytokines by ConA stimulated lymphocytes were assessed. In TDI-sensitized and challenged mice, airway hyper-reactivity was only observed in BALB/c, BP/2, A/J and AKR mice; airway inflammation was most pronounced in BALB/c mice; numbers of T-helper (CD4(+, T-activated (CD4(+CD25(+, T-cytotoxic (CD8(+ and B- lymphocytes (CD19(+ were increased in the auricular lymph nodes of BALB/c, BP/2, A/J and CBA mice; elevated concentrations of IL-4, IL-10, IL-13 and IFN-gamma were detected in supernatant of lymphocytes from BALB/c, BP/2, A/J, C57Bl/6 and CBA mice cultured with concanavaline A, along with an increase in total serum IgE. CONCLUSION: The used mouse strain has considerable and variable impacts on different aspects of the asthma phenotype. The human phenotypical characteristics of chemically-induced occupational asthma were best reproduced in Th2-biased mice and in particular in BALB/c mice.

  15. Sensory axon guidance with semaphorin 6A and nerve growth factor in a biomimetic choice point model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The direct effect of guidance cues on developing and regenerating axons in vivo is not fully understood, as the process involves a multiplicity of attractive and repulsive signals, presented both as soluble and membrane-bound ligands. A better understanding of axon guidance is critical to functional recovery following injury to the nervous system through improved outgrowth and mapping of damaged nerves. Due to their implications as inhibitors to central nervous system regeneration, we investigated the repulsive properties of semaphorin 6A and ephrin-B3 on E15 rat dorsal root ganglion explants, as well as possible interactions with soluble gradients of chemoattractive nerve growth factor (NGF). We employed a 3D biomimetic in vitro choice point model, which enabled the simple and rapid preparation of patterned gel growth matrices with quantifiable presentation of guidance cues in a specifiable manner that resembles the in vivo presentation of soluble and/or immobilized ligands. Neurites demonstrated an inhibitory response to immobilized Sema6A by lumbosacral dorsal root ganglion explants, while no such repulsion was observed for immobilized ephrin-B3 by explants at any spinal level. Interestingly, Sema6A inhibition could be partially attenuated in a concentration-dependent manner through the simultaneous presentation of soluble NGF gradients. The in vitro model described herein represents a versatile and valuable investigative tool in the quest for understanding developmental processes and improving regeneration following nervous system injury. (paper)

  16. Effects of task complexity and time pressure on activity-travel choices: heteroscedastic logit model and activity-travel simulator experiment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, C.; Chorus, C.G.; Molin, E.J.E.; Van Wee, G.P.

    2015-01-01

    This paper derives, estimates and applies a discrete choice model of activity-travel behaviour that accommodates potential effects of task complexity and time pressure on decision-making. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that both factors (task complexity and time pressure) are j

  17. Understanding surgery choices for breast cancer: how might the Theory of Planned Behaviour and the Common Sense Model contribute to decision support interventions?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sivell, S.; Edwards, A.; Elwyn, G.; Manstead, A.S.

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To describe the evidence about factors influencing breast cancer patients' surgery choices and the implications for designing decision support in reference to an extended Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) and the Common Sense Model of Illness Representations (CSM). BACKGROUND: A wide rang

  18. Influence of a priori information and choice of activation detectors in integral experiments on the accuracy of neutron spectrum unfolding in fusion reactor blanket models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The document contains the following two papers translated from Russian: Choice of activation detectors for integral experiments in the fusion reactor blanket models; Influence of a priori information on the accuracy of ''thermonuclear'' neutron spectrum unfolding. A separate abstract was prepared for each of these papers. Refs, figs and tabs

  19. Cost-effective choices of marine fuels in a carbon-constrained world: results from a global energy model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taljegard, Maria; Brynolf, Selma; Grahn, Maria; Andersson, Karin; Johnson, Hannes

    2014-11-01

    The regionalized Global Energy Transition model has been modified to include a more detailed shipping sector in order to assess what marine fuels and propulsion technologies might be cost-effective by 2050 when achieving an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 400 or 500 ppm by the year 2100. The robustness of the results was examined in a Monte Carlo analysis, varying uncertain parameters and technology options, including the amount of primary energy resources, the availability of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, and costs of different technologies and fuels. The four main findings are (i) it is cost-effective to start the phase out of fuel oil from the shipping sector in the next decade; (ii) natural gas-based fuels (liquefied natural gas and methanol) are the most probable substitutes during the study period; (iii) availability of CCS, the CO2 target, the liquefied natural gas tank cost and potential oil resources affect marine fuel choices significantly; and (iv) biofuels rarely play a major role in the shipping sector, due to limited supply and competition for bioenergy from other energy sectors. PMID:25286282

  20. Airport terminal choice model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Helena Muñoz-Hoyos

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available La mayoría de los estudios del modo aéreo han tratado individua lmente los aspectos de tarifas, demoras y demás variables inher entes a este medio de transporte, así como la elección del modo aéreo f rente a otros modos, pero poco se ha hecho por modelar cómo un viajero elige un aeropuerto entre dos opciones disponibles en una gran ciudad. En la actualidad un pasajero que parte de la ciudad de Medellín - Colombia a algunos destinos nacionales, tiene la opción de v iajar por alguno de los dos aeropuertos, el José María Córdova (JMC o el Enriqu e Olaya Herrera (EOH; esta investigación presenta los resultad os de una encuesta de preferencias declaradas en un experimento de elecci ón discreta, y partiendo de esto se obtiene un modelo por desti no; para cada uno de estos se hallaron modelos logit multinomial y logit mixt o; en cada trayecto evaluado se eligió el logit multinomial com o el mejor.

  1. Choice & Consequence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Azam

    To move toward environmental sustainability, we propose that a computational approach may be needed due to the complexity of resource production and consumption. While digital sensors and predictive simulation has the potential to help us to minimize resource consumption, the indirect relation be...... principles of data analysis and instructional interface design, to both simulation systems and decision support interfaces. We hope that projects such as these will help people to understand the link between their choices and the consequences of their decisions....... between cause and effect in complex systems complicates decision making. To address this issue, we examine the central role that data-driven decision making could play in critical domains such as sustainability or medical treatment. We developed systems for exploratory data analysis and data visualization...... to support hypothesis generation, hypothesis testing, and decision making. In addition to sensors in buildings, infrastructure, or the environment, we also propose the instrumentation of user interfaces to help measure performance in decision making applications. We show the benefits of applying...

  2. Indulgence or Self-Control: A Dual Process Model of the Effect of Incidental Pride on Indulgent Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Keith Wilcox; Thomas Kramer; Sankar Sen

    2011-01-01

    This research examines the largely unexamined effect of incidental pride on consumer self-control. The results demonstrate that incidental pride influences long-term goal pursuit through dual processes that result in conflicting outcomes for consumer decisions: indulgent choices when promoting a sense of achievement and virtuous choices when promoting self-awareness. A series of four experiments in the money and health domains shows that the relative weight of each process at the time of a de...

  3. Processing of recognition information and additional cues: A model-based analysis of choice, confidence, and response time

    OpenAIRE

    Andreas Glockner; Arndt Broder

    2011-01-01

    Research on the processing of recognition information has focused on testing the recognition heuristic (RH). On the aggregate, the noncompensatory use of recognition information postulated by the RH was rejected in several studies, while RH could still account for a considerable proportion of choices. These results can be explained if either a) a part of the subjects used RH or b) nobody used it but its choice predictions were accidentally in line with predictions of the strategy used. In the...

  4. EFL students' English language knowledge, strategy use and multiple-choice reading test performance: a structural equation modeling approach

    OpenAIRE

    Hsu, Wei-Tsung

    2008-01-01

    In Taiwan, a reading comprehension component is included in the English test of the Senior High Academic Ability Examination (SHAAE) – a national examination which can be regarded as a university entrance examination for students in their final year of senior high. This reading subtest consists of a multiple-choice format. Studies on language assessment, L2 reading and L1-L2 reading have suggested that EFL students’ performance on multiple-choice reading comprehension tests is attributed to t...

  5. MEASURING U.S. CONSUMER PREFERENCES FOR GENETICALLY MODIFIED FOODS USING CHOICE MODELING EXPERIMENTS: THE ROLE OF PRICE, PRODUCT BENEFITS AND TECHNOLOGY

    OpenAIRE

    Onyango, Benjamin M.; Govindasamy, Ramu; Nayga, Rodolfo M.

    2004-01-01

    Food biotechnology promises to deliver a wide range of enhanced consumer benefits. This study models consumer's willingness to trade-off the potential risks of GM foods with the possibility of extracting significant benefits. The results of the choice modeling experiments reflect how different attributes of price, product benefits, and technology influence consumer demand for genetically modified food products. The results suggest that direct health, environmental, and production related bene...

  6. Towards HumanRobot Teams: Model-Based Analysis of Human Decision Making in Two-Alternative Choice Tasks With Social Feedback

    OpenAIRE

    Stewart, Andrew; Cao, Ming; Nedic, Andrea; Tomlin, Damon; Leonard, Naomi Ehrich

    2012-01-01

    With a principled methodology for systematic design of human–robot decision-making teams as a motivating goal, we seek an analytic, model-based description of the influence of team and network design parameters on decision-making performance. Given that there are few reliably predictive models of human decision making, we consider the relatively well-understood two-alternative choice tasks from cognitive psychology, where individuals make sequential decisions with limited information, and we ...

  7. Modeling school choice: A comparison of public, private-independent, private-religious and home-schooled students

    OpenAIRE

    Belfield, Clive R.

    2004-01-01

    U.S. students now have four choices of schooling: public schooling, private–religious schooling, private–independent schooling, and home-schooling. Of these, home-schooling is the most novel: since legalization across the states in the last few decades, it has grown in importance and legitimacy as an alternative choice. Thus, it is now possible to investigate the motivation for home-schooling, relative to the other schooling options. Here, we use two recent large-scale datasets to assess the ...

  8. Leisure and Travel Choice

    OpenAIRE

    María José Caride; Eduardo L. Giménez

    2003-01-01

    It is commonly recognized the relevance of transportation costs for studying recre- ational demand. However, these costs are related with travel and modal choice deci- sions. This paper o ers a theoretical explanation of the new generation of the demand for recreational goods at destiny after the introduction of a new transportation mode that is not the cheapest nor the fastest among the available modes. The main feature of the model deals with the transportation mode-dependent preferences. T...

  9. Model for managing water in oil refineries based in Strategic Choice Approach; Modelo para gerenciamento de aguas em refinarias de petroleo atraves do 'Strategic Choice Approach'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sobral, Marcos Felipe Falcao; Morais, Danielle Costa [Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE), Recife, PE (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    Like all natural resources, the water has more space on the staff of debates in the business because of the scenarios current and future trends that point to the high costs related to its capitation, use and disposal. As an essential input in various industrial activities, in special way in the process of refining oil, the correct management of water resources becomes a challenge ahead is to be observed in the actions of these strategic industries. So there is needs to structure the problem before solve it, considering the various uncertainties related to decision environmental, it is evident the need a method to assist policy makers in the generation of alternatives for water management in these enterprises. Thus, this work aims to propose a model for managing water in oil refineries, using the Strategic Choice Approach. (author)

  10. Choice and Procrastination.

    OpenAIRE

    Ted O'Donoghue and Matthew Rabin.

    2000-01-01

    JEL#: A12, B49, C70, D11, D60, D74, D91, E21 Keywords: choice, naivete, partial naivete, present-biased preferences, procrastination, self control, sophistication, time inconsistency Recent models of procrastination due to self-control problems assume that a procrastinator considers just one option and is unaware of her self-control problems. We develop a model where a person chooses from a menu of options and is partially aware of her self-control problems. This menu model replicates earlier...

  11. Choice Map: Inferring a Product-Market Map from Panel Data

    OpenAIRE

    Terry Elrod

    1988-01-01

    This paper describes Choice Map, a model that infers a product-market map from panel data. Choice Map is a stochastic brand choice model, a random utility quantal choice model, and a multidimensional scaling procedure. Choice Map combines the parsimony of stochastic choice models, the rationale of random utility models, and the ability of multidimensional scaling procedures to simultaneously infer both brand positions and consumer preferences from preference (choice) data. Choice Map assumes ...

  12. An Exploration of Enterprise Level Partnership and the Influences Informing Private Sector Organisations Choice of this Model in the Republic of Ireland

    OpenAIRE

    O'Leary, Kevin, (Thesis)

    2006-01-01

    The research follows the strategic choice of Partnership and seeks to gain an understanding of the processes and practices which define this concept and the political, economic and historical influences which have shaped it's evolution. The primary focus of this study is to explore the factors which have shaped the decision of private sector einployers to engage with or to reject Partnership as an appropriate model. The literature and the surveys consulted suggest that Partnership has not bec...

  13. A hybrid discrete choice model to assess the effect of awareness and attitude towards environmentally friendly travel modes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sottile, Eleonora; Meloni, Italo; Cherchi, Elisabetta

    2015-01-01

    The need to reduce private vehicle use has led to the development of soft measures aimed at re-educating car users through information processes that raise their awareness regarding the benefits of environmentally friendly modes, encouraging them to voluntarily change their mode choice behaviour...... sufficient to overcome the effect of cognitive dissonance, one of the main factors hindering change. In fact it is not unusual to find discrepancies between attitudes and behaviour in travel behaviour research. The objective of the present work is to understand the relationship between awareness, attitude...... and behaviour in the context of mode choice and to measure the effect of awareness after the implementation of a soft measure after controlling for individual environmental attitudes. Using a dataset gathered in two weeks, before and after individuals are informed of the benefits of using park and...

  14. Flower choice copying in bumblebees

    OpenAIRE

    Worden, Bradley D; Papaj, Daniel R

    2005-01-01

    We tested a hypothesis originating with Darwin that bees outside the nest exhibit social learning in flower choices. Naive bumblebees, Bombus impatiens, were allowed to observe trained bees or artificial bees forage from orange or green flowers. Subsequently, observers of bees on green flowers landed more often on green flowers than non-observing controls or observers of models on orange flowers. These results demonstrate that bumblebees can change flower choice by observations of non-nest ma...

  15. Social Defaults: Observed Choices Become Choice Defaults

    OpenAIRE

    Young Eun Huh; Joachim Vosgerau; Morewedge, Carey K.

    2014-01-01

    Defaults effects can be created by social contexts. The observed choices of others can become social defaults, increasing their choice share. Social default effects are a novel form of social influence not due to normative or informational influence: participants were more likely to mimic observed choices when choosing in private than in public (experiment 1) and when stakes were low rather than high (experiment 2). Like other default effects, social default effects were greater for uncertain...

  16. The radiological consequences of notional accidental releases of radioactivity from fast breeder reactors: sensitivity to the choice of atmospheric dispersion model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The radiological consequences of a wide range of notional accidental releases from a 1300 MW(e) LMFBR were assessed in a study published in 1977 (NRPB - R53). In that study representative values were in general adopted for each of the important parameters while recognising that in reality they could vary considerably. The present study is concerned with the sensitivity of the predicted consequences to the choice of atmospheric dispersion models. A comparison is made of the air concentrations predicted by a number of atmospheric models (which have found broad application) for releases of activity in selected meteorological conditions. The implications, in terms of the radiological consequences of particular releases, of differences in the air concentrations predicted by the respective models are assessed semi-quantitatively. In general the radiological consequences are shown to be relatively insensitive to the choice of atmospheric dispersion model. This is particularly so for the incidence of late biological effects; for early biological effects the sensitivity is more pronounced although of the models considered, that adopted in the initial study would yield results at the upper end of the predicted range. (author)

  17. The influence of country of origin on German consumer preferences for peaches: a latent class choice model

    OpenAIRE

    Cembalo, Luigi; Cicia, Gianni; Del Giudice, Teresa

    2009-01-01

    Germany is an important world level market for fresh fruit. Spain and Italy are the main suppliers of fresh fruit on the German market while the main imported products are apple, grapes, peaches and oranges. The aim of this paper is to assess the role country of origin plays in the preferences of German consumers for peaches. Since German legislation requires fresh fruit sold on the market to clearly display the product’s country of origin, German consumers usually make their choice with this...

  18. Privacy, Publicity, and Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Andrew F. Daughety; Jennifer F. Reinganum

    2008-01-01

    We develop and explore a new model of the economics of privacy. Previous work has focused on "privacy of type," wherein an agent privately knows an immutable characteristic. We consider "privacy of action," wherein privacy means that an agent's choice of action is unobservable to others. To show how a policy of privacy can be socially optimal, we assume that an agent derives utility from an action he takes, from the aggregate of all agents' actions, and from other agents' perceptions of the a...

  19. A benefit–risk assessment model for statins using multicriteria decision analysis based on a discrete choice experiment in Korean patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byun JH

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Ji-Hye Byun,1 Sun-Hong Kwon,1 Ji-Hye Ha,2 Eui-Kyung Lee1 1School of Pharmacy, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon-si, Gyeonggi-do, 2Ministry of Food and Drug Safety, Cheongju-si, Chungcheongbuk-do, South Korea Purpose: The benefit–risk balance for drugs can alter post approval owing to additional data on efficacy or adverse events. This study developed a quantitative benefit–risk assessment (BRA model for statins using multicriteria decision analysis with discrete choice experiments and compared a recent BRA with that at the time of approval. Patients and methods: Following a systematic review of the literature, the benefit criteria within the statin BRA model were defined as a reduction in the plasma low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level and a reduction in myocardial infarction incidence; the risk criteria were hepatotoxicity (Liv and fatal rhabdomyolysis (Rha. The scores for these criteria were estimated using mixed treatment comparison methods. Weighting was calculated from a discrete choice experiment involving 203 Korean patients. The scores and weights were integrated to produce an overall value representing the benefit–risk balance, and sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results: In this BRA model, low-density lipoprotein (relative importance [RI]: 37.50% was found to be a more important benefit criterion than myocardial infarction (RI: 35.43%, and Liv (RI: 16.28% was a more important risk criterion than Rha (RI: 10.79%. Patients preferred atorvastatin, and the preference ranking of cerivastatin and simvastatin was switched post approval because of the emergence of additional risk information related to cerivastatin. Conclusion: A quantitative statin BRA model confirmed that the preference ranking of statins changed post approval because of the identification of additional benefits or risks. Keywords: multicriteria decision analysis, statin, quantitative benefit–risk assessment, discrete choice experiment

  20. On the tradeoffs of programming language choice for numerical modelling in geoscience. A case study comparing modern Fortran, C++/Blitz++ and Python/NumPy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarecka, D.; Arabas, S.; Fijalkowski, M.; Gaynor, A.

    2012-04-01

    The language of choice for numerical modelling in geoscience has long been Fortran. A choice of a particular language and coding paradigm comes with different set of tradeoffs such as that between performance, ease of use (and ease of abuse), code clarity, maintainability and reusability, availability of open source compilers, debugging tools, adequate external libraries and parallelisation mechanisms. The availability of trained personnel and the scale and activeness of the developer community is of importance as well. We present a short comparison study aimed at identification and quantification of these tradeoffs for a particular example of an object oriented implementation of a parallel 2D-advection-equation solver in Python/NumPy, C++/Blitz++ and modern Fortran. The main angles of comparison will be complexity of implementation, performance of various compilers or interpreters and characterisation of the "added value" gained by a particular choice of the language. The choice of the numerical problem is dictated by the aim to make the comparison useful and meaningful to geoscientists. Python is chosen as a language that traditionally is associated with ease of use, elegant syntax but limited performance. C++ is chosen for its traditional association with high performance but even higher complexity and syntax obscurity. Fortran is included in the comparison for its widespread use in geoscience often attributed to its performance. We confront the validity of these traditional views. We point out how the usability of a particular language in geoscience depends on the characteristics of the language itself and the availability of pre-existing software libraries (e.g. NumPy, SciPy, PyNGL, PyNIO, MPI4Py for Python and Blitz++, Boost.Units, Boost.MPI for C++). Having in mind the limited complexity of the considered numerical problem, we present a tentative comparison of performance of the three implementations with different open source compilers including CPython and

  1. Modeling school choice: A comparison of public, private-independent, private-religious and home-schooled students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clive R. Belfield

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available U.S. students now have four choices of schooling: public schooling, private–religious schooling, private–independent schooling, and home-schooling. Of these, home-schooling is the most novel: since legalization across the states in the last few decades, it has grown in importance and legitimacy as an alternative choice. Thus, it is now possible to investigate the motivation for home-schooling, relative to the other schooling options. Here, we use two recent large-scale datasets to assess the school enrollment decision: the first is the National Household Expenditure Survey (1999, and the second is micro-data on SAT test-takers in 2001. We find that, generally, families with home-schoolers have similar characteristics to those with children at other types of school, but mother’s characteristics – specifically, her employment status – have a strong influence on the decision to home-school. Plausibly, religious belief has an important influence on the schooling decision, not only for Catholic students, but also those of other faiths.

  2. A benefit–risk assessment model for statins using multicriteria decision analysis based on a discrete choice experiment in Korean patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byun, Ji-Hye; Kwon, Sun-Hong; Ha, Ji-Hye; Lee, Eui-Kyung

    2016-01-01

    Purpose The benefit–risk balance for drugs can alter post approval owing to additional data on efficacy or adverse events. This study developed a quantitative benefit–risk assessment (BRA) model for statins using multicriteria decision analysis with discrete choice experiments and compared a recent BRA with that at the time of approval. Patients and methods Following a systematic review of the literature, the benefit criteria within the statin BRA model were defined as a reduction in the plasma low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level and a reduction in myocardial infarction incidence; the risk criteria were hepatotoxicity (Liv) and fatal rhabdomyolysis (Rha). The scores for these criteria were estimated using mixed treatment comparison methods. Weighting was calculated from a discrete choice experiment involving 203 Korean patients. The scores and weights were integrated to produce an overall value representing the benefit–risk balance, and sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results In this BRA model, low-density lipoprotein (relative importance [RI]: 37.50%) was found to be a more important benefit criterion than myocardial infarction (RI: 35.43%), and Liv (RI: 16.28%) was a more important risk criterion than Rha (RI: 10.79%). Patients preferred atorvastatin, and the preference ranking of cerivastatin and simvastatin was switched post approval because of the emergence of additional risk information related to cerivastatin. Conclusion A quantitative statin BRA model confirmed that the preference ranking of statins changed post approval because of the identification of additional benefits or risks. PMID:27358567

  3. Evoked emotions predict food choice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelle R Dalenberg

    Full Text Available In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Therefore, the focus within recent studies shifted towards using emotion-profiling methods that successfully can discriminate between products that are equally liked. However, it is unclear how well scores from emotion-profiling methods predict actual food choice and/or consumption. To test this, we proposed to decompose emotion scores into valence and arousal scores using Principal Component Analysis (PCA and apply Multinomial Logit Models (MLM to estimate food choice using liking, valence, and arousal as possible predictors. For this analysis, we used an existing data set comprised of liking and food-evoked emotions scores from 123 participants, who rated 7 unlabeled breakfast drinks. Liking scores were measured using a 100-mm visual analogue scale, while food-evoked emotions were measured using 2 existing emotion-profiling methods: a verbal and a non-verbal method (EsSense Profile and PrEmo, respectively. After 7 days, participants were asked to choose 1 breakfast drink from the experiment to consume during breakfast in a simulated restaurant environment. Cross validation showed that we were able to correctly predict individualized food choice (1 out of 7 products for over 50% of the participants. This number increased to nearly 80% when looking at the top 2 candidates. Model comparisons showed that evoked emotions better predict food choice than perceived liking alone. However, the strongest predictive strength was achieved by the combination of evoked emotions and liking. Furthermore we showed that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores more accurately predict food choice than verbal food-evoked emotions scores.

  4. Evoked emotions predict food choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalenberg, Jelle R; Gutjar, Swetlana; Ter Horst, Gert J; de Graaf, Kees; Renken, Remco J; Jager, Gerry

    2014-01-01

    In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Therefore, the focus within recent studies shifted towards using emotion-profiling methods that successfully can discriminate between products that are equally liked. However, it is unclear how well scores from emotion-profiling methods predict actual food choice and/or consumption. To test this, we proposed to decompose emotion scores into valence and arousal scores using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and apply Multinomial Logit Models (MLM) to estimate food choice using liking, valence, and arousal as possible predictors. For this analysis, we used an existing data set comprised of liking and food-evoked emotions scores from 123 participants, who rated 7 unlabeled breakfast drinks. Liking scores were measured using a 100-mm visual analogue scale, while food-evoked emotions were measured using 2 existing emotion-profiling methods: a verbal and a non-verbal method (EsSense Profile and PrEmo, respectively). After 7 days, participants were asked to choose 1 breakfast drink from the experiment to consume during breakfast in a simulated restaurant environment. Cross validation showed that we were able to correctly predict individualized food choice (1 out of 7 products) for over 50% of the participants. This number increased to nearly 80% when looking at the top 2 candidates. Model comparisons showed that evoked emotions better predict food choice than perceived liking alone. However, the strongest predictive strength was achieved by the combination of evoked emotions and liking. Furthermore we showed that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores more accurately predict food choice than verbal food-evoked emotions scores. PMID:25521352

  5. Neural Activity Reveals Preferences Without Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Alec; Bernheim, B. Douglas; Camerer, Colin

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the feasibility of inferring the choices people would make (if given the opportunity) based on their neural responses to the pertinent prospects when they are not engaged in actual decision making. The ability to make such inferences is of potential value when choice data are unavailable, or limited in ways that render standard methods of estimating choice mappings problematic. We formulate prediction models relating choices to “non-choice” neural responses and use them to predict out-of-sample choices for new items and for new groups of individuals. The predictions are sufficiently accurate to establish the feasibility of our approach. PMID:25729468

  6. Making Smart Food Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Go4Life Get Free Stuff Be a Partner Making Smart Food Choices Regular physical activity and a healthy ... through physical activity. Download the Tip Sheet Making Smart Food Choices (PDF, 488.99 KB) You Might ...

  7. Choice Probability Generating Functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications....

  8. Choice theories: What are they good for?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Eric J

    2013-01-01

    Simonson et al. present an ambitious sketch of an integrative theory of context. Provoked by this thoughtful proposal, I discuss what is the function of theories of choice in the coming decades. Traditionally, choice models and theory have attempted to predict choices as a function of the attributes of options. I argue that to be truly useful, they need to generate specific and quantitative predictions of the effect of the choice environment upon choice probability. To do this, we need to focus on rigorously modeling and measuring the underlying processes causing these effects, and use the Simonson et al. proposal to provide some examples. I also present some examples from research in decision-making and decision neuroscience, and argue that models that fail, and fail spectacularly are particularly useful. I close with a challenge: How would consumer researcher aid the design of real world choice environments such as the health exchanges under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act? PMID:23794793

  9. Savage Misunderstandings about Choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gura, Mark

    1993-01-01

    Although Jonathan Kozol is well-informed about choice program imperfections, schools of choice are superior to traditional schools. In places like East Harlem, school choice is helping transform youngsters from captive, disenfranchised malcontents to true students involved in their education. The challenge is to make every district school worthy…

  10. Applying Health Locus of Control and Latent Class Modelling to food and physical activity choices affecting CVD risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grisolía, José M; Longo, Alberto; Hutchinson, George; Kee, Frank

    2015-05-01

    Health Locus of Control (HLC) classifies our beliefs about the connection between our actions and health outcomes (Skinner, 1996) into three categories: "internal control", corresponding to health being the result of an individual's effort and habits; "control by powerful others", whereby health depends on others, such as doctors; and "chance control", according to which health depends on fate and chance. Using Choice Experiments we investigate the relationship between HLC and willingness to change lifestyle, in terms of eating habits, physical activity and associated cardiovascular disease risk, in a 384 person sample representative of the 40-65 aged population of Northern Ireland administered between February and July 2011. Using latent class analysis we identify three discrete classes of people based on their HLC: the first class is sceptical about their capacity to control their health and certain unhealthy habits. Despite being unsatisfied with their situation, they are reluctant to accept behaviour changes. The second is a group of individuals unhappy with their current situation but willing to change through exercise and diet. Finally, a group of healthy optimists is identified, who are satisfied with their current situation but happy to take more physical activity and improve their diet. Our findings show that any policy designed to modify people's health related behaviour should consider the needs of this sceptical class which represents a considerable proportion of the population in the region. PMID:25779694

  11. Revenue models in the context of online digital audio companies: Making an optimal choice between advertising and paid subscriptions

    OpenAIRE

    Sørensen, Jens

    2012-01-01

    Objectives of the Study This study sets out to examine the digital Internet audio market through eight case companies and their business models, and determine whether future entrants into the market should focus their monetization efforts on advertising-based models or subscription-based models. The main objective of the study is to provide an educated guess on which revenue models future entrants should emphasize based on the current situation in the market today. Academic backgroun...

  12. A comprehensive action determination model - Toward a broader understanding of ecological behaviour using the example of travel mode choice

    OpenAIRE

    Klöckner, Christian; Blöbaum, Anke

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines a first version of a Comprehensive Action Determination Model (CADM) of ecological behaviour that incorporates intentional, normative, situational, and habitual influences on environmentally friendly behaviour. The main assumptions of the theory of planned behaviour (TPB), the norm-activation model (NAM), the theoretical concept of habit and the ipsative theory of behaviour were integrated into a comprehensive model. The model was tested using a structural equation modelli...

  13. Choice of the Models for the Co-operative Innovation of Industries, Universities and Research Institutes by Game Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Yiyang Fan; Youhua Zhang

    2010-01-01

    This paper builds game model to analyze selection issues of IUR co-operation model through Nash bargaining theory. The result shows that, the stronger innovative capability, more economic benefits expected, less technical content of scientific research, companies more inclined to choose a higher degree of close model; otherwise, companies tend to choose more closely integrated degree lower mode.

  14. School Choice: The Struggle for the Soul of American Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cookson, Peter W., Jr.

    This discussion of school choice places the issue in its historical and contemporary contexts, describes the major choice plans through case studies, analyzes the outcomes of school choice, and examines the underlying assumptions of the market model of educational reform. School choice is one method by which public education can be reinvented, as…

  15. Transportation Mode Choice Analysis Based on Classification Methods

    OpenAIRE

    Zeņina, N; Borisovs, A

    2011-01-01

    Mode choice analysis has received the most attention among discrete choice problems in travel behavior literature. Most traditional mode choice models are based on the principle of random utility maximization derived from econometric theory. This paper investigates performance of mode choice analysis with classification methods - decision trees, discriminant analysis and multinomial logit. Experimental results have demonstrated satisfactory quality of classification.

  16. Pemodelan Share-Of-Choice Problem

    OpenAIRE

    Panjaitan, Dedy Juliandri

    2012-01-01

    Share-of-choice problem is to maximize the number of respondents to choose at least one product from a product line that has a high utility of each status-quo product. Model Share-of-choice with a budget price and aims to combine the price with budget constraints and minimum limits acceptable to the utility of each at- tribute selected by the share-of-choice problem. The proposed heuristics to solve models of share-of-choice problem with a budget price is a heuristic beam search.

  17. Analysis of the benefits of designing and implementing a virtual didactic model of multiple choice exam and problem-solving heuristic report, for first year engineering students

    CERN Document Server

    Bennun, Leonardo

    2015-01-01

    Improvements in performance and approval obtained by first year engineering students from University of Concepcion, Chile, were studied, once a virtual didactic model of multiple-choice exam, was implemented. This virtual learning resource was implemented in the Web ARCO platform and allows training, by facing test models comparable in both time and difficulty to those that they will have to solve during the course. It also provides a feedback mechanism for both: 1) The students, since they can verify the level of their knowledge. Once they have finished the simulations, they can access a complete problem-solving heuristic report of each problem; 2) The teachers, since they can obtain information about the habits of the students in their strategies of preparation; and they also can diagnose the weaknesses of the students prior to the exam. This study indicates how this kind of preparation generates substantial improvements on the approval rates by allowing the students: 1) A more structured and oriented syste...

  18. Dynamic Portfolio Choice with Frictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garleanu, Nicolae; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    2016-01-01

    We show how portfolio choice can be modeled in continuous time with transitory and persistent transaction costs, multiple assets, multiple signals predicting returns, and general signal dynamics. The objective function is derived from the limit of discrete-time models with endogenous transaction ......' inventory dynamics. Finally, we provide equilibrium implications and illustrate the model's broader applicability to micro- and macro-economics, monetary policy, and political economy....

  19. Reduced Motivation in the BACHD Rat Model of Huntington Disease Is Dependent on the Choice of Food Deprivation Strategy

    OpenAIRE

    Jansson, Erik Karl Håkan; Clemens, Laura Emily; Riess, Olaf; Nguyen, Huu Phuc

    2014-01-01

    Huntington disease (HD) is an inherited neurodegenerative disease characterized by motor, cognitive, psychiatric and metabolic symptoms. Animal models of HD show phenotypes that can be divided into similar categories, with the metabolic phenotype of certain models being characterized by obesity. Although interesting in terms of modeling metabolic symptoms of HD, the obesity phenotype can be problematic as it might confound the results of certain behavioral tests. This concerns the assessment ...

  20. 基于前景理论的驾驶人停车选择模型%Parking choice model based on the prospect theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谢秉磊; 王志利; 赵泽斌

    2012-01-01

    考虑到期望效用理论的缺陷及驾驶人的有限理性,利用前景理论,建立了停车选择决策模型.通过对调查数据的回归分析,确定了停车影响因素的参照点,建立了价值函数及决策权重函数,得到了单因素的前景值.利用模糊偏好下多目标决策权重赋值方法,确定了影响因素的权重,从而建立了驾驶入的停车选择模型.%In terms of defects of expected utility theory and drivers' bounded rationality, prospect theory was used to establish a new parking choice model. Based on survey data, the reference points of factors to influence parking choice were estimated with regression analysis. The value function and weight functions of decision-making for single factor were established so that the prospect value of every factor could be acquired. The multi-objective decision-making under fuzzy preference weight assignment method was used to assign the weight of every factor to obtain the overall values of options.

  1. Manipulating a stated choice experiment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Borjesson, Maria

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers the design of a stated choice experiment intended to measure the marginal rate of substitution (MRS) between cost and an attribute such as time using a conventional logit model. Focusing the experimental design on some target MRS will bias estimates towards that value. The pa...

  2. Oligopolistic Competition with Choice-Overloaded Consumers

    OpenAIRE

    Gerasimou, Georgios; Papi, Mauro

    2015-01-01

    A large body of experimental work has suggested the existence of a "choice overload" effect in consumer decision making: Faced with large menus of choice options, decision makers often defer or avoid choice. A suggested reason for the occurrence of this effect is that the agents attempt to avoid the cognitive effort that is associated with choosing from larger menus. Building on this explanation, we propose and analyse a model of duopolistic competition where firms compete in menu design in t...

  3. Speakers' choice of frame in binary choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc van Buiten

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available A distinction is proposed between extit{recommending for} preferred choice options and extit{recommending against} non-preferred choice options. In binary choice, both recommendation modes are logically, though not psychologically, equivalent. We report empirical evidence showing that speakers recommending for preferred options predominantly select positive frames, which are less common when speakers recommend against non-preferred options. In addition, option attractiveness is shown to affect speakers' choice of frame, and adoption of recommendation mode. The results are interpreted in terms of three compatibility effects, (i extit{recommendation mode---valence framing compatibility}: speakers' preference for positive framing is enhanced under extit{recommending for} and diminished under extit{recommending against} instructions, (ii extit{option attractiveness---valence framing compatibility}: speakers' preference for positive framing is more pronounced for attractive than for unattractive options, and (iii extit{recommendation mode---option attractiveness compatibility}: speakers are more likely to adopt a extit{recommending for} approach for attractive than for unattractive binary choice pairs.

  4. Modeling Commute Length Choice Decisions in Dual-income Households%双职工家庭通勤出行长度选择研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    鲜于建川; 隽志才

    2012-01-01

    以双职工家庭中夫妇俩通勤出行长度选择为研究对象,建立双变量有序Probit模型,分析了影响通勤出行长度选择的主要因素,揭示了夫妇俩通勤出行选择之间的相互影响模式.模型结果表明年龄、性别、家庭收入、居住环境等因素对双方通勤出行选择的影响方向相同,互补效应在双方的通勤出行长度选择中占主导地位.%Commuter behaviour analysis has gained a lot of attention in the fields of transportation and land-use modelling. Since commute length reflects the physical separation between work and home, individual's commuting pattern is expected to be adjusted in response to the changes in housing or residential locations. Motivated by the importance of commuter behaviour this study intended to investigate the choices of commute trips of spouses of dual-income households. A bivariate ordered-Probit model was developed with commute length of the spouses as endogenous variables to examine the interrelationships between commute decisions of spouses. The model results provide useful insights into the effects of individual/household sociodemographics, housing and location characteristics on commute length choice. It is shown that journeys to work of the two spouses in a dual-income household appear to be complements and not substitutes. Results from this research would help for making better policies to provide mobility options and job accessibility.

  5. Addiction: Choice or compulsion?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EdmundHenden

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Normative thinking about addiction has traditionally been divided between, on the one hand, a medical model which sees addiction as a disease characterized by compulsive and relapsing drug use over which the addict has little or no control and, on the other, a moral model which sees addiction as a choice characterized by voluntary behaviour under the control of the addict. Proponents of the former appeal to evidence showing that regular consumption of drugs causes persistent changes in the brain structures and functions known to be involved in the motivation of behavior. On this evidence, it is often concluded that becoming addicted involves a transition from voluntary, chosen drug use to non-voluntary compulsive drug use. Against this view, proponents of the moral model provide ample evidence that addictive drug use involves voluntary chosen behaviour. In this article we argue that although they are right about something, both views are mistaken. We present a third model that neither rules out the view of addictive drug use as compulsive, nor that it involves voluntary chosen behavior.

  6. Does health affect portfolio choice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, David A; Smith, Paul A

    2010-12-01

    A number of recent studies find that poor health is empirically associated with a safer portfolio allocation. It is difficult to say, however, whether this relationship is truly causal. Both health status and portfolio choice are influenced by unobserved characteristics such as risk attitudes, impatience, information, and motivation, and these unobserved factors, if not adequately controlled for, can induce significant bias in the estimates of asset demand equations. Using the 1992-2006 waves of the Health and Retirement Study, we investigate how much of the connection between health and portfolio choice is causal and how much is due to the effects of unobserved heterogeneity. Accounting for unobserved heterogeneity with fixed effects and correlated random effects models, we find that health does not appear to significantly affect portfolio choice among single households. For married households, we find a small effect (about 2-3 percentage points) from being in the lowest of five self-reported health categories. PMID:19937612

  7. The impact of perceptions in averting-decision models: An application of the special regressor method to drinking water choices

    OpenAIRE

    Bontemps, Christophe; Nauges, Céline

    2014-01-01

    Individuals are commonly surveyed about their perception or assessment of risk and these variables are often used to explain individuals’ actions to protect themselves against these risks. Perceptions appear as endogenous variables in traditional theoretical averting-decision models but, quite surprisingly, endogeneity of perceived risk is not always controlled for in empirical studies. In this article, we present different models that can be useful to the practitioner when estimating binary ...

  8. Practice Prize Paper --Applying a Dynamic Model of Consumer Choice to Guide Brand Development at Jetstar Airways

    OpenAIRE

    Peter J. Danaher; John H. Roberts; Ken Roberts; Alan Simpson

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes the use of a marketing science model by Jetstar, a subsidiary of Australia's leading airline, Qantas, to effectively and profitably compete in the low-cost carrier marketplace. We trace the evolution of the Jetstar strategy from a baseline calibration of its initial position, to its efforts to attain price competitiveness and service parity, followed by its highly focused, cost-effective service delivery strategy. We develop a hierarchical model with parameters estimated ...

  9. Incorporating Perceptions, Learning Trends, Latent Classes, and Personality Traits in the Modeling of Driver Heterogeneity in Route Choice Behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Tawfik, Aly M.

    2012-01-01

    Driver heterogeneity in travel behavior has repeatedly been cited in the literature as a limitation that needs to be addressed. In this work, driver heterogeneity is addressed from four different perspectives. First, driver heterogeneity is addressed by models of driver perceptions of travel conditions: travel distance, time, and speed. Second, it is addressed from the perspective of driver learning trends and models of driver-types. Driver type is not commonly used in the vernacular of trans...

  10. A discrete choice modeling framework for pedestrian walking behavior with application to human tracking in video sequences

    OpenAIRE

    Antonini, Gianluca

    2005-01-01

    Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) have triggered important research activities in the context of behavioral dynamics. Several new models and simulators for driving and travel behaviors, along with new integrated systems to manage various elements of ITS, have been proposed in the past decades. In this context, less attention has been given to pedestrian modeling and simulation. In 2001, the first international conference on Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics took place in Duisburg, Ger...

  11. Computational Social Choice (Tutorial)

    OpenAIRE

    Brandt, Felix

    2015-01-01

    Over the past few years there has been a lively exchange of ideas between computer science, in particular theoretical computer science and artificial intelligence, on the one hand and economics, in particular game theory and social choice, on the other. This exchange goes in both directions and has produced active research areas such as algorithmic game theory and computational social choice. Social choice theory concerns the formal analysis and design of methods for aggregating po...

  12. Essays on occupational choice

    OpenAIRE

    Schlenker, Eva Gabriele

    2013-01-01

    Occupational choices have far-reaching consequences for young adults. Occupations do not only influence career opportunities and earnings. They also have an impact on status and reputation in society. The importance of occupational choice is reinforced because occupational choice is hardly reversible and, therefore, creates path dependencies in one's life. This issue is especially crucial if job mobility is low, as it is the case in Germany. Changes in occupations are less common in Germany i...

  13. Choice Neighborhood Grantees

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Housing and Urban Development — Choice Neighborhoods grants transform distressed neighborhoods, public and assisted projects into viable and sustainable mixed-income neighborhoods by linking...

  14. Reduced motivation in the BACHD rat model of Huntington disease is dependent on the choice of food deprivation strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jansson, Erik Karl Håkan; Clemens, Laura Emily; Riess, Olaf; Nguyen, Huu Phuc

    2014-01-01

    Huntington disease (HD) is an inherited neurodegenerative disease characterized by motor, cognitive, psychiatric and metabolic symptoms. Animal models of HD show phenotypes that can be divided into similar categories, with the metabolic phenotype of certain models being characterized by obesity. Although interesting in terms of modeling metabolic symptoms of HD, the obesity phenotype can be problematic as it might confound the results of certain behavioral tests. This concerns the assessment of cognitive function in particular, as tests for such phenotypes are often based on food depriving the animals and having them perform tasks for food rewards. The BACHD rat is a recently established animal model of HD, and in order to ensure that behavioral characterization of these rats is done in a reliable way, a basic understanding of their physiology is needed. Here, we show that BACHD rats are obese and suffer from discrete developmental deficits. When assessing the motivation to lever push for a food reward, BACHD rats were found to be less motivated than wild type rats, although this phenotype was dependent on the food deprivation strategy. Specifically, the phenotype was present when rats of both genotypes were deprived to 85% of their respective free-feeding body weight, but not when deprivation levels were adjusted in order to match the rats' apparent hunger levels. The study emphasizes the importance of considering metabolic abnormalities as a confounding factor when performing behavioral characterization of HD animal models. PMID:25144554

  15. Normal tissue complication probabilities: dependence on choice of biological model and dose-volume histogram reduction scheme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purpose: To evaluate the impact of dose-volume histogram (DVH) reduction schemes and models of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) on ranking of radiation treatment plans. Methods and Materials: Data for liver complications in humans and for spinal cord in rats were used to derive input parameters of four different NTCP models. DVH reduction was performed using two schemes: 'effective volume' and 'preferred Lyman'. DVHs for competing treatment plans were derived from a sample DVH by varying dose uniformity in a high dose region so that the obtained cumulative DVHs intersected. Treatment plans were ranked according to the calculated NTCP values. Results: Whenever the preferred Lyman scheme was used to reduce the DVH, competing plans were indistinguishable as long as the mean dose was constant. The effective volume DVH reduction scheme did allow us to distinguish between these competing treatment plans. However, plan ranking depended on the radiobiological model used and its input parameters. Conclusions: Dose escalation will be a significant part of radiation treatment planning using new technologies, such as 3-D conformal radiotherapy and tomotherapy. Such dose escalation will depend on how the dose distributions in organs at risk are interpreted in terms of expected complication probabilities. The present study indicates considerable variability in predicted NTCP values because of the methods used for DVH reduction and radiobiological models and their input parameters. Animal studies and collection of standardized clinical data are needed to ascertain the effects of non-uniform dose distributions and to test the validity of the models currently in use

  16. How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars-Part I: Model structure, simulation of bounded rationality, and model validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article presents an agent-based microsimulation capable of forecasting the effects of policy levers that influence individual choices of new passenger cars. The fundamental decision-making units are households distinguished by sociodemographic characteristics and car ownership. A two-stage model of individual decision processes is employed. In the first stage, individual choice sets are constructed using simple, non-compensatory rules that are based on previously owned cars. Second, decision makers evaluate alternatives in their individual choice set using a multi-attributive weighting rule. The attribute weights are based on a multinomial logit model for cross-country policy analysis in European countries. Additionally, prospect theory and the notion of mental accounting are used to model the perception of monetary values. The microsimulation forecasts actual market observations with high accuracy, both on the level of aggregate market characteristics as well as on a highly resolved level of distributions of market shares. The presented approach is useful for the assessment of policies that influence individual purchase decisions of new passenger cars; it allows accounting for a highly resolved car fleet and differentiated consumer segments. As a result, the complexity of incentive schemes can be represented and detailed structural changes can be investigated

  17. 条件固定效应回归的活动目的地选择模型——一个案例研究%A case study on destination choice with C-Logit model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高晶鑫; 隽志才; 吴文静; 董英荣

    2011-01-01

    This paper focus on the travel destination choice of urban residents. It illustrates the methods for how to predict the decision of travel destination choice, and establishes C-Logit model of destination choice. Under the help of the urban travel data from an urban traffic area in our country, it calibrates the model and designs simulation process of destination choice for the residents to explain the many factors which can affect the destination choice decision. The prediction results which have a higher prediction accuracy from the disaggregate level were analyzed. This paper provides a new method to simulate the travel destination choice of urban residents.%本文以城市居民出行目的地选择为研究对象,建立条件固定效应回归(C-Logit)目的地选择模型.结合我国某城市交通小区城市居民日出行数据对模型进行标定求解,并描述目的地选择预测流程,解释了影响居民出行目的地选择的诸多因素.对预测结果进行分析,得到较高的目的地选择预测精度,为从非集计层面研究城市居民出行目的地选择提供了新的思路.

  18. Latent variables and route choice behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo; Bekhor, Shlomo; Pronello, Cristina

    2012-01-01

    In the last decade, a broad array of disciplines has shown a general interest in enhancing discrete choice models by considering the incorporation of psychological factors affecting decision making. This paper provides insight into the comprehension of the determinants of route choice behavior by...... proposing and estimating a hybrid model that integrates latent variable and route choice models. Data contain information about latent variable indicators and chosen routes of travelers driving regularly from home to work in an urban network. Choice sets include alternative routes generated with a branch....... Estimation results illustrate that considering latent variables (i.e., memory, habit, familiarity, spatial ability, time saving skills) alongside traditional variables (e.g., travel time, distance, congestion level) enriches the comprehension of route choice behavior....

  19. The Impact of Choice Expression Modalities on Choice Rationality and Choice Satisfaction: An Empirical Investigation.

    OpenAIRE

    Voß, Thorsten

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation comprises two empirical studies that investigate the impact of manual versus oral choice expression modalities on the objective rationality of choice (Study 1) and the impact of oral versus manual choice expression modalities on choice satisfaction (Study 2).

  20. The effect of unconditional cash transfers on adult labour supply: A unitary discrete choice model for the case of Ecuador

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mideros, A.; O'Donoghue, C.

    2014-01-01

    We examine the effect of unconditional cash transfers by a unitary discrete labour supply model. We argue that there is no negative income effect of social transfers in the case of poor adults because leisure could not be assumed to be a normal good under such conditions. Using data from the nationa

  1. Stages of Change or Changes of Stage? Predicting Transitions in Transtheoretical Model Stages in Relation to Healthy Food Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armitage, Christopher J.; Sheeran, Paschal; Conner, Mark; Arden, Madelynne A.

    2004-01-01

    Relatively little research has examined factors that account for transitions between transtheoretical model (TTM) stages of change. The present study (N=787) used sociodemographic, TTM, and theory of planned behavior (TPB) variables, as well as theory-driven interventions to predict changes in stage. Longitudinal analyses revealed that…

  2. Testing a Social Cognitive Model of Career Choice Development within the Context of a Minority Teacher Recruitment Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaffner, Monika; Jepsen, David A.

    This study tested various aspects of the social cognitive career theory (SCCT) suggested by Lent, et al. (1994), addressing whether these constructs could be modeled using data from adolescents participating in a minority teacher recruitment program for urban and rural at-risk minority students. The study hypothesized that self-efficacy and…

  3. "Good Enough" Psychiatric Residency Training in Borderline Personality Disorder: Challenges, Choice Points, and a Model Generalist Curriculum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unruh, Brandon T; Gunderson, John G

    2016-01-01

    While the public health burden posed by borderline personality disorder (BPD) rivals that associated with other major mental illnesses, the prevailing disposition of psychiatrists toward the disorder remains characterized by misinformation, stigma, aversive attitudes, and insufficient familiarity with effective generalist treatments that can be delivered in nonspecialized health care settings. Residency training programs are well positioned to better equip the next generation of psychiatrists to address these issues, but no consensus or guidelines currently exist for what and how residents should be taught about managing BPD. Instead, disproportionately limited curricular time, teaching of non-evidence-based approaches, and modeling of conceptually confused combinations of techniques drawn from specialty BPD treatments are offered. In this article, we (1) explain why training in a generalist model is sensible and why alternative approaches are not appropriate for residents, (2) propose a plan for giving residents adequate training via a generalist model, highlighting minimal didactic and clinical-training objectives (dubbed "core competencies" and "milestones") and a model curriculum developed at the Massachusetts General Hospital/McLean Hospital residency program, and (3) describe obstacles to implementation of effective generalist training posed by infrastructural, faculty-centered, and resident-centered variables. PMID:27603744

  4. Optimal Portfolio Choice with Wash Sale Constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Astrup Jensen, Bjarne; Marekwica, Marcel

    2011-01-01

    We analytically solve the portfolio choice problem in the presence of wash sale constraints in a two-period model with one risky asset. Our results show that wash sale constraints can heavily affect portfolio choice of investors with unrealized losses. The trading behavior of such investors is to a...

  5. Statistical strategies for constructing health risk models with multiple pollutants and their interactions: possible choices and comparisons

    OpenAIRE

    Sun, Zhichao; Tao, Yebin; Li, Shi; Ferguson, Kelly K; Meeker, John D.; Park, Sung Kyun; Batterman, Stuart A.; Mukherjee, Bhramar

    2013-01-01

    Background As public awareness of consequences of environmental exposures has grown, estimating the adverse health effects due to simultaneous exposure to multiple pollutants is an important topic to explore. The challenges of evaluating the health impacts of environmental factors in a multipollutant model include, but are not limited to: identification of the most critical components of the pollutant mixture, examination of potential interaction effects, and attribution of health effects to ...

  6. Decision support for choice optimal power generation projects: Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on the electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In 2002, China began to inspire restructuring of the electric power sector to improve its performance. Especially, with the rapid increase of electricity demand in China, there is a need for non-utility generation investment that cannot be met by government finance alone. However, a first prerequisite is that regulators and decision-makers (DMs) should carefully consider how to balance the need to attract private investment against the policy objectives of minimizing monopoly power and fostering competitive markets. So in the interim term of electricity market, a decentralized decision-making process should eventually replace the centralized generation capacity expansion planning. In this paper, firstly, on the basis of the current situation, a model for evaluating generation projects by comprehensive utilization of fuzzy appraisal and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is developed. Secondly, a case study of generation project evaluation in China is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the model in selecting optimal generation projects and attracting private investors. In the case study, with considerations of attracting adequate private investment and promoting energy conservation in China, five most promising policy instruments selected as evaluation factors include project duration, project costs, predicted on-grid price level, environmental protection, enterprise credit grading and performance. Finally, a comprehensive framework that enables the DM to have better concentration and to make more sound decisions by combining the model proposed with modern computer science is designed

  7. The Choice Controversy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cookson, Peter W., Jr., Ed.

    Issues in school choice--constitutionality, feasibility, equity, and educational productivity--are examined in this book. The controversy requires an ongoing analysis of the origins of the school-choice movement, the kinds of plans proposed and implemented, their educational and social consequences, and the philosophical assumptions underlying the…

  8. Latinos and School Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gastic, Billie; Coronado, Diana Salas

    2011-01-01

    The authors describe how Latino students are underrepresented in public schools of choice. They provide evidence to refute the claim that Latino students who choose to leave assigned public schools enroll in religious schools instead. Charter schools stand out as the type of public schools of choice where Latino students are well represented.…

  9. Career Choice Conflict.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behymer, Jo; Cockriel, Irvin W.

    1988-01-01

    The study attempted to determine the effect of availability of scholarships and loans on the career choice of high school juniors and seniors. A survey of 911 college-bound students revealed that 89 percent considered availability of scholarships important to career choice, and 84 percent considered loan availability important. (CH)

  10. Children's Choices for 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reading Teacher, 2008

    2008-01-01

    Each year 12,500 school children from different regions of the United States read and vote on the newly published children's and young adults' trade books that they like best. The Children's Choices for 2008 list is the 34th in a series that first appeared as "Classroom Choices" in the November 1975 issue of "The Reading Teacher" (RT), a…

  11. Children's Choices for 2002.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reading Teacher, 2002

    2002-01-01

    Presents annotations of children's choices of the top 100 children's and young adults' trade books for 2002. Lists books selected for the Children's Choice by reading levels: beginning readers; young readers; intermediate readers; and advanced readers. Provides tips and activities for parents, primary caregivers, and educators. (SG)

  12. Your Genes, Your Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Table of Contents Your Genes, Your Choices describes the Human Genome Project, the science behind it, and the ethical, legal, and social issues that are ... Nothing could be further from the truth. Your Genes, Your Choices points out how the progress of ...

  13. A note on the choice and the estimation of Kriging models for the analysis of deterministic computer experiments

    OpenAIRE

    Ginsbourger, David; Dupuy, Delphine; BADEA Anca; Carraro, Laurent; Roustant, Olivier

    2008-01-01

    Our goal in the present work is to give an insight on some important questions to be asked when choosing a Kriging model for the analysis of numerical experiments. We are especially concerned about the cases where the size of the design of experiments is small relatively to the algebraic dimension of the inputs. We first fix the notations and recall some basic properties of Kriging. Then we expose two experimental studies on subjects that are often skipped in the field of computer simulation ...

  14. Social Networks and the Choices People Make

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Jeremy

    2014-01-01

    Social marketing is becoming increasingly important in contemporary business. Central to social marketing is quantifying how consumers choose between alternatives and how they influence each other. This work considers a new but simple multinomial choice model for multiple agents connected in a recommendation network based on the explicit modeling of choice adoption behavior. Efficiently computable closed-form solutions, absent from analyses of threshold/cascade models, are obtained together w...

  15. Approach Choice and Innovative Model Design of Grass-root Agricultural Technology Promotion under the View of New Countryside

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces the approach types of agricultural technology promotion we can choose in the process of new countryside construction, and there are mainly 6 types, namely government-domination-oriented approach, market-development-oriented approach, university (scientific research institution)-education-oriented approach, farmers’ participation-oriented approach, direct-training-oriented approach and individual-service-oriented approach, including 20 models. The problems existing in the grass-root agricultural technology promotion in the process of new village construction are analyzed as follows: the awareness of innovation is not strong; scientific research, education, and promotion are disjointed; the construction of specific work system lags behind; the structure of promotion team is irrational, and the quality of promotion personnel is yet to be promoted; the cultural quality of farmers is low, and the cooperative organizations are not sound; the working conditions are poor, and the basic security is inadequate; the investment channel is simple and the supply amount is badly short; the methods of agricultural technology promotion do not adapt to the requirements of new situation. According to the characteristics and internal requirements of grass-root agricultural technology promotion, we creatively design an overall working model, and put forward new measures from objective of grass-root agricultural technology promotion, service object, service content, organization work and scope, method, role of agricultural technology personnel and so on.

  16. Choices after Graduation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    正From the above table,we can see that the students of this university have three main choices after graduation.Of these choices,the students who have found a job only take up 50%.In contrast,students who pursue further study by taking the postgraduate entrance exam or going abroad have increased greatly than before, with the total percentage of 47%.Indeed,this phenomenon is also quite common in other universities. The following factors can account for the choices of graduates.Above all,with the enrollment extension of universities,college graduates are facing the severe em-

  17. Choice of model and uncertainties of the gamma-ray and neutron dosimetry in relation to the chromosome aberrations data in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rühm, W; Walsh, L; Chomentowski, M

    2003-07-01

    ) value of 15 at 1 Gy which is recommended here, would predict between 10% and 20% of the observed chromosome aberrations to be due to neutrons, at all doses. Because of the good agreement between DS86 predictions and the results of retrospective gamma and neutron dosimetry, the modifications applied here to DS86 doses are relatively small. Consequently, the choices of model and RBE values were found to be the major factors dominating the interpretation of the chromosome data for Hiroshima and Nagasaki, with the dose modifications resulting in a smaller influence. PMID:12844221

  18. Veterans Choice Program

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — If you are already enrolled in VA health care, the Choice Program allows you to receive health care within your community. Using this program does NOT impact your...

  19. Informed food choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Coff, Christian Eyde

    2014-01-01

    Food production and consumption influence health, the environment, social structures, etc. For this reason consumers are increasingly interested in information about these effects. Disclosure of information about the consequences of food production and consumption is essential for the idea of inf......, supporting rationality (the best choice), consumers’ self-governance (autonomy) and life coherence (integrity). On a practical level, informed food choice remains an ideal to strive for, as information on food often is inadequate....

  20. Consumer choice behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Flemming; Percy, Larry; Hallum Hansen, Morten

    2004-01-01

    The paper is concerned with the measurement of emotions and the study of the role ofemotions in consumer choice. Contemporary neurological findings suggest that emotionsmay play a role in its own right, quite different from the way in which they have beenconsidered in traditional consumer choice ...... behaviour theory. A large-scale study including800 respondents, covering 64 brands, provide findings on emotional response tendenciesfor the brands, and relate these to involvement, type of need gratification, purchasingbehaviour, etc....

  1. Consumer choice behaviour

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, Flemming; Percy, Larry; Hallum Hansen, Morten

    2004-01-01

    The paper is concerned with the measurement of emotions and the study of the role of emotions in consumer choice. Contemporary neurological findings suggest that emotions may play a role in its own right, quite different from the way in which they have been considered in traditional consumer choice behaviour theory. A large-scale study including 800 respondents, covering 64 brands, provide findings on emotional response tendencies for the brands, and relate these to involvement...

  2. Diversification Preferences in the Theory of Choice

    OpenAIRE

    De Giorgi, Enrico G.; Mahmoud, Ola

    2015-01-01

    Diversification represents the idea of choosing variety over uniformity. Within the theory of choice, desirability of diversification is axiomatized as preference for a convex combination of choices that are equivalently ranked. This corresponds to the notion of risk aversion when one assumes the von-Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility model, but the equivalence fails to hold in other models. This paper reviews axiomatizations of the concept of diversification and their relationship to the r...

  3. Confidence in value-based choice

    OpenAIRE

    De Martino, Benedetto; Stephen M. Fleming; Garrett, Neil; Dolan, Raymond

    2013-01-01

    Decisions are never perfect, with confidence in one's choices fluctuating over time. How subjective confidence and valuation of choice options interact at the level of brain and behavior is unknown. Using a dynamic model of the decision process, we show that confidence reflects the evolution of a decision variable over time, explaining the observed relation between confidence, value, accuracy and reaction time. As predicted by our dynamic model, we show that a functional magnetic resonance im...

  4. Dynamics with choice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dynamics with choice is a generalization of discrete-time dynamics where instead of the same evolution operator at every time step there is a choice of operators to transform the current state of the system. Many real-life processes studied in chemical physics, engineering, biology and medicine, from autocatalytic reaction systems to switched systems to cellular biochemical processes to malaria transmission in urban environments, exhibit the properties described by dynamics with choice. We study the long-term behaviour in dynamics with choice. We prove very general results on the existence and properties of global compact attractors in dynamics with choice. In addition, we study the dynamics with restricted choice when the allowed sequences of operators correspond to subshifts of the full shift. One of the practical consequences of our results is that when the parameters of a discrete-time system are not known exactly and/or are subject to change due to internal instability or a strategy or Nature's intervention, the long-term behaviour of the system may not be correctly described by a system with 'averaged' values for the parameters. There may be a Gestalt effect

  5. Prenatal screening, reproductive choice, and public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    One widely held view of prenatal screening (PNS) is that its foremost aim is, or should be, to enable reproductive choice; this is the Pure Choice view. The article critiques this position by comparing it with an alternative: Public Health Pluralism. It is argued that there are good reasons to prefer the latter, including the following. (1) Public Health Pluralism does not, as is often supposed, render PNS more vulnerable to eugenics-objections. (2) The Pure Choice view, if followed through to its logical conclusions, may have unpalatable implications, such as extending choice well beyond health screening. (3) Any sensible version of Public Health Pluralism will be capable of taking on board the moral seriousness of abortion and will advocate, where practicable, alternative means of reducing the prevalence of disease and disability. (4) Public Health Pluralism is at least as well-equipped as the Pure Choice model to deal with autonomy and consent issues. PMID:25521971

  6. Efficiency of Choice Set Generation Methods for Bicycle Routes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halldórsdóttir, Katrín; Rieser-Schüssler, Nadine; W. Axhausen, Kay;

    behaviour, observed choices and alternatives composing the choice set of each cyclist are necessary. However, generating the alternative choice sets can prove challenging. This paper analyses the efficiency of various choice set generation methods for bicycle routes in order to contribute to our...... might produce inconsistent estimates. There have been some studies on bicycle route choice set generation reported in the literature, whereof few studies focussed on route choice models for bicyclist estimated from GPS observations. Menghini et al. [3] successfully applied a Breadth First Search on Link...

  7. Application of multi-criteria decision-making model for choice of the optimal solution for meeting heat demand in the centralized supply system in Belgrade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The expected growth of living standard, number of inhabitants and development of technology, industry and agriculture will cause a significant increase of energy consumption in cities. Three scenarios of energy sector development until 2030 and corresponding energy consumption for the city of Belgrade are analyzed in this paper. These scenarios consider different level of economic development, investments in energy sector, substitution of fossil fuels, introduction of renewable energy sources and implementation of energy efficiency measures. The proposed model for selection of optimal district heating system compares different options for fulfilling expected new heat demand through eight criteria for each scenario. Proposed options are combination of different energy sources and technologies for their use. The criteria weights are set according to Serbian economy and energy position. The criteria include financial aspects, environmental impact and availability of energy. Multi-criteria method ELECTRE (ELimination Et Choix Traduisant la REalite) is used as a tool for obtaining the optimal option. It is concluded that combination of CHP (combined heat and power) plant and centralized use of geothermal energy is optimal choice in the optimistic scenario. In the pessimistic and business as usual scenario the optimal option is combination of new gas boilers and centralized use of geothermal energy. - Highlights: • Three scenarios for meeting new heat demand are developed and assessed. • Constructing CHP (combined heat and power) is desirable in case of significant electricity price growth. • In all scenarios the chosen option includes using geothermal energy for heating

  8. Fitting observed and theoretical choices - women's choices about prenatal diagnosis of Down syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seror, Valerie

    2008-05-01

    Choices regarding prenatal diagnosis of Down syndrome - the most frequent chromosomal defect - are particularly relevant to decision analysis, since women's decisions are based on the assessment of their risk of carrying a child with Down syndrome, and involve tradeoffs (giving birth to an affected child vs procedure-related miscarriage). The aim of this study, based on face-to-face interviews with 78 women aged 25-35 with prior experience of pregnancy, was to compare the women' expressed choices towards prenatal diagnosis with those derived from theoretical models of choice (expected utility theory, rank-dependent theory, and cumulative prospect theory). The main finding obtained in this study was that the cumulative prospect model fitted the observed choices best: both subjective transformation of probabilities and loss aversion, which are basic features of the cumulative prospect model, have to be taken into account to make the observed choices consistent with the theoretical ones. PMID:17806133

  9. Performance of transgenic TgTau-P301L mice in a 5-choice serial reaction time task (5-CSRTT) as a model of Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bharmal, Aamena Valiji; Kent, Brianne A; Bussey, Timothy J; Saksida, Lisa M

    2015-09-01

    Alzheimer's disease is increasing to epidemic levels with an estimated 36 million people affected worldwide (Wimo 2010). The aetiology of the disease is not known, which is hindering the progression of the treatment. This study is a longitudinal investigation into the performance of TgTauP301L mice as an animal model of Alzheimer's disease on the computer automated touchscreen 5-choice serial reaction time task (5-CSRTT). TgTauP301L mice have a single tau mutation in the P301L gene and develop the tau pathology that represents the observed tauopathy in patients with Alzheimer's disease. The aim of the investigation is to observe if tau pathology in the TgTauP301L mice causes a cognitive impairment in attention and executive function and at what stage this can be identified by the 5-CSRTT task. This will establish if the animals can be used as a therapeutic model for pre-clinical drug trials and help to identify an early indicator and intervention point in patients with Alzheimer's disease. The animals have previously been studied at 5-months and no differences between performances of the TgTauP301L mice and wild type mice were found (unpublished data). This study measured the performance of the animals at 7-months which is when the tauopathy begins to develop in TgTauP301L mice (Murakami 2005). The results of this study showed that there was no deficit in the performance of the TgTauP301L compared to the wild type mice and there had been no change in the animals' performance compared to at 5-months. The animals will be retested at 12-months once the pathology has extensively spread to see if the tauopathy causes a deficit in performance. PMID:26540742

  10. Choice of initial therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Battegay

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Current international and national treatment guidelines such as EACS, BHIVA, DHHS or IAS update regularly recommendations on the choice of initial combination antiretroviral treatment (cART regimens. Preferred cART regimens include a backbone with two nucleoside (nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors combined either with one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor or one ritonavir boosted protease inhibitor or more recently one integrase inhibitor. Response rates according to viral load measurements increased in recent years, in particular due to better tolerability. The choice of initial therapy is flexible and influenced by several factors such as height of viral load, genotypic resistance testing, CD4 cell count, co-morbidities, interactions, potential adverse events, (potential for pregnancy, convenience, adherence, costs as well as physician's and patient's preferences. Diverse highly potent initial cART regimens exist. Following the many possibilities, the choice of a regimen is based on a mixture of evidence-informed data and individualized concepts, some of the latter only partly supported by strong evidence. For example, different perceptions and personal experiences exist about boosted protease inhibitors compared to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors or integrase inhibitors and vice versa which may influence the initial choice. This lecture will discuss choices of initial cART in view of international guidelines and the evidence for individualization of initial HIV therapy.

  11. Limitations of modern microeconomic theory of consumer choice: Sociological perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Radonjić Ognjen

    2008-01-01

    Neoclassical theory of consumer choice needs to be reformed. Assumption that consumer choice is not influenced by the choice of others is in collision with reality. New and better theory of consumer choice is unimaginable without incorporation of intersubjective factors into the model of derivation of individual and aggregate (market) demand functions. Goal of this study is to underline widely neglected sociological factors that have significant influence on motivation and behavior of consume...

  12. Measuring improved patient choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes-Rovner, M; Rovner, D R

    2000-08-01

    Patient decision support (PDS) tools or decision aids have been developed as adjuncts to the clinical encounter. Their aim is to support evidence-based patient choice. Clinical trials of PDS tools have used an array of outcome measures to determine efficacy, including knowledge, satisfaction, health status and consistency between patient choice and values. This paper proposes that the correlation between 'subjective expected utility' (SEU) and decision may be the best primary endpoint for trials. SEU is a measure usually used in behavioural decision theory. The paper first describes how decision support tools may use decision analysis to structure the presentation of evidence and guide patient decision-making. Uses of expected utility (EU) are suggested for evaluating PDS tools when improving population health status is the objective. SEU is the theoretically better measure when internal consistency of patient choices is the objective. PMID:11083037

  13. Electoral system, pesonal votes, and party choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Søren Risbjerg

    Using local elections in Denmark as an example this paper shows that individual party choice is influenced both by individual level, municipality level, and national level characteristics. Some hypotheses about the effects of the electoral system on personal votes derived from a theory by Carey...... & Shugart (1995) are first tested using a fixed-effects model. The effect of the personal reputation of the candidates, measured by personal votes, on party choice is then tested using a multilevel multinomial logit model suggested by Rabe-Hesketh and Skrondal (2008). The paper shows that both the electoral...... system and the personal reputation of local candidates have theoretically expected effects on party choice at local elections in Denmark. The methodology can be used for cross-national studies of multilevel effects on multi-party choice....

  14. Salience and Consumer Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Bordalo, Pedro; Gennaioli, Nicola; Shleifer, Andrei

    2012-01-01

    We present a theory of context-dependent choice in which a consumer's attention is drawn to salient attributes of goods, such as quality or price. An attribute is salient for a good when it stands out among the good's characteristics, in the precise sense of being furthest away in that good from its average level in the choice set (or more generally, an evoked set). A local thinker chooses among goods by attaching disproportionately high weights to their salient attributes. When goods are cha...

  15. Exchange rate regime choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beker Emilija

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The choice of an adequate exchange rate regime proves to be a highly sensitive field within which the economic authorities present and confirm themselves. The advantages and disadvantages of fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes, which have been quite relativized from the conventional point of view, together with simultaneous, but not synchronized effects of structural and external factors, remain permanently questioned throughout a complex process of exchange rate regime decision making. The paper reflects the attempt of critical identification of the key exchange rate performances with emphasis on continuous non-uniformity and (uncertainty of shelf life of a relevant choice.

  16. Empirical social choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kurrild-Klitgaard, Peter

    2014-01-01

    The year 2012 was the 30th anniversary of William H. Riker’s modern classic Liberalism against populism (1982) and is marked by the present special issue. In this introduction, we seek to identify some core elements and evaluate the current status of the Rikerian research program and its empirical...... applications. Special attention is given to three phenomena and their possible empirical manifestations: The instability of social choice in the form of (1) the possibility of majority cycles, (2) the non-robustness of social choices given alternative voting methods, and (3) the possibility of various forms of...

  17. A quantum delayed choice experiment

    CERN Document Server

    Peruzzo, Alberto; Brunner, Nicolas; Popescu, Sandu; O'Brien, Jeremy L

    2012-01-01

    Quantum systems exhibit particle-like or wave-like behaviour depending on the experimental apparatus they are confronted by. This wave-particle duality is at the heart of quantum mechanics, and is fully captured in Wheeler's famous delayed choice gedanken experiment. In this variant of the double slit experiment, the observer chooses to test either the particle or wave nature of a photon after it has passed through the slits. Here we report on a quantum delayed choice experiment, based on a quantum controlled beam-splitter, in which both particle and wave behaviours can be investigated simultaneously. The genuinely quantum nature of the photon's behaviour is tested via a Bell inequality, which here replaces the delayed choice of the observer. We observe strong Bell inequality violations, thus showing that no model in which the photon knows in advance what type of experiment it will be confronted by, hence behaving either as a particle or as wave, can account for the experimental data.

  18. Transition choice probabilities and welfare in ARUM's

    OpenAIRE

    de Palma, André; Kilani, Karim

    2009-01-01

    We study the descriptive and the normative consequences of price and/or other attributes changes in additive random utility models. We first derive expressions for the transition choice probabilities associated to these changes. A closed-form formula is obtained for the logit. We then use these expressions to compute the cumulative distribution functions of the compensating variation conditional on ex-ante and/or ex-post choices. The unconditional distribution is also provided. The conditiona...

  19. The National Interest, Westminster, and Public Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Johnson, R.W.M.

    1994-01-01

    There has been increasing scrutiny of government policy decisions and advice in recent years. The supremacy of the national interest has been questioned and self interest theories explored. Administrative systems have been reformed, and the role of the Westminster model of government decision-making endlessly reviewed. Increased interest by economists in the policy process has created a new subject area in economics, namely, public choice theory. It places greater emphasis on individual choic...

  20. Who is afraid of school choice?

    OpenAIRE

    Diem, Andrea; Wolter, Stefan C.

    2011-01-01

    This study uses survey data to investigate attitudes among Swiss voters to different models offering more freedom of choice in the educational system. The findings indicate clear opposition to the use of taxpayer money to fund private schools, while free choice between public schools seems to appeal to a majority. The analyses show that the approval-opposition heterogeneity is mainly based on an explicable, rational calculation of personal utility. Approval rates are much higher among groups ...

  1. Situated Support for Choice of Representations

    OpenAIRE

    Hakkarainen, S.; Kofod-Petersen, A.; Buil-Aranda, C.

    2005-01-01

    As more and more companies are augmenting their data to include semantics it is imperative that the choices made when choosing the modelling language are well founded in knowledge about the language and the domain in question. This work demonstrates how the Semiotic Quality Framework can facilitate the choice of the most suited language for a real world application. Computational and situated features are introduced as an extension to the framework.

  2. Identity and educational choice: a behavioral approach.

    OpenAIRE

    Ji, Yuemei

    2008-01-01

    It is puzzling that socioeconomic background greatly affects educational choice. Distinguished from the explanations based on expected utility theory, this paper attempts to explore the psychological mechanisms of generating educational identity1 and schooling choice. It offers a self-signaling model where (1) it incorporates self-esteem concerns into the agent’s payoff function, (2) the investment in schooling not only signals her cognitive ability but also brings the agent into cognitive di...

  3. 基于Agent的居民就医选择建模与仿真%Agent-based Modeling and Simulation Research into Residents Healthcare Choice

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    程贲; 李兴兵; 鲁延京; 谭跃进

    2009-01-01

    基于Agent建模仿真是医疗服务领域中问题研究和政策分析的一种新方法.在分析目前医疗领域中居民就医选择现状的基础上,基于Agent的建模方法,对医疗系统中的主要对象--医院、社区医疗服务机构、居民的行为进行了建模,开发了基于Anylogic的居民就医选择的仿真原型,研究了居民的就医选择问题,分析扩大不同医疗机构的费用差距及增加区域内社区医疗服务机构数量两项政策对居民就医选择的影响.实验结果说明通过调节医院与社区诊所的医疗服务的价格比,能够影响居民就医选择,但增加医院的医疗服务的价格会造成部分低收入居民无法就医;区域内社区诊所与医院的比例在2~4倍时,对降低居民无法就医的比例是有效的.%Agent-based modeling and simulation is a new methodology in the field of healthcare service research and relevant policy analysis. Applying agent-based modeling and simulation methodology, we research the problem of residents' healthcare selection and construct health service models for hospitals, residents and communities. Applying the simulation tool -AnyLogic, we analyze the effects of two policies on residents' health care choice, which involve enlarging the price gap of different healthcare institutions and increasing the number of healthcare service agencies in communities within a region. The experiment result illustrates that changing the cost ratio of hospital and community service has a significant impact on residents' selection decision, while the rising of the price of healthcare service makes residents with low income unable to afford the expense of healthcare service, and that the proper ratio of the number of community health service agencies to that of hospitals within a certain region is 2 to 4.

  4. Learning from School Choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Paul E., Ed.; Hassel, Bryan C., Ed.

    This volume contains revised versions of 16 essays presented at a conference, "Rethinking School Governance," hosted by Harvard's Program on Education Policy and Governance in June 1997. Part 1, "Introduction," contains two chapters: (1) "School Choice: A Report Card" (Paul E. Peterson); and (2) "The Case for Charter Schools" (Bryan C. Hassel).…

  5. Supporting Family Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Mary M.; Christensen, Kimberly A.; Umbarger, Gardner T.; Rade, Karin C.; Aldridge, Kathryn; Niemeyer, Judith A.

    2007-01-01

    Supporting family choice in the decision-making process is recommended practice in the field of early childhood and early childhood special education. These decisions may relate to the medical, educational, social, recreational, therapeutic/rehabilitative, and community aspects of the child's disability. Although this practice conveys the message…

  6. Angelina′s choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nishu Singh Goel

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This is an opinion piece on how a celebrity′s personal choice to undergo prophylactic mastectomy on discovery of an aberrant gene, when publicly promoted, carries in itself the power to influence and impact healthcare trends and decisions. When celebrities advocate causes that are universally and uniformly acceptable and indisputable as the best in the realm of healthcare and cure (e.g. no smoking, it creates well-being and awareness in society at large. But those which are personal choices made out of a repertoire of other available and effective options may, because of celebrity preference, don the mantle of a norm. They thus run the danger of being blindly replicated by others without proper awareness and knowledge of the true potential of disease, risk factors, and other existing remedial or risk-reducing measures. Society should thus be encouraged to question, debate, and understand the validity, authenticity, and reason of the choices, especially those with a medical basis. This tempering of information with intelligence and rationale and making informed choices based on facts will serve humanity as a whole.

  7. Children's Choice for 2001.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reading Teacher, 2001

    2001-01-01

    Presents a 25-item annotated bibliography for beginning readers, 30 items for young readers, 19 items for intermediate readers, and 24 items for advanced readers--all selected by children. Gives tips for parents, primary caregivers, and educators. Describes the Children's Choice project and book selection. (SG)

  8. Children's Choices for 2003.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reading Teacher, 2003

    2003-01-01

    Presents 103 titles for the 2003 Children's Choice grouped by reading levels: beginning, young, intermediate, and advanced readers. Provides the title, author, illustrator, publisher, ISBN, and price for each title as well as a brief annotation prepared by a review team. (SG)

  9. Machine Learning Biogeographic Processes from Biotic Patterns: A New Trait-Dependent Dispersal and Diversification Model with Model Choice By Simulation-Trained Discriminant Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukumaran, Jeet; Economo, Evan P; Lacey Knowles, L

    2016-05-01

    Current statistical biogeographical analysis methods are limited in the ways ecology can be related to the processes of diversification and geographical range evolution, requiring conflation of geography and ecology, and/or assuming ecologies that are uniform across all lineages and invariant in time. This precludes the possibility of studying a broad class of macroevolutionary biogeographical theories that relate geographical and species histories through lineage-specific ecological and evolutionary dynamics, such as taxon cycle theory. Here we present a new model that generates phylogenies under a complex of superpositioned geographical range evolution, trait evolution, and diversification processes that can communicate with each other. We present a likelihood-free method of inference under our model using discriminant analysis of principal components of summary statistics calculated on phylogenies, with the discriminant functions trained on data generated by simulations under our model. This approach of model selection by classification of empirical data with respect to data generated under training models is shown to be efficient, robust, and performs well over a broad range of parameter space defined by the relative rates of dispersal, trait evolution, and diversification processes. We apply our method to a case study of the taxon cycle, that is testing for habitat and trophic level constraints in the dispersal regimes of the Wallacean avifaunal radiation. PMID:26715585

  10. 基于结构方程模型的通勤交通方式选择%Commute Traffic Mode Choice Based on Structural Equation Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    严海; 王熙蕊; 梁文博; 孔令鹏

    2015-01-01

    基于以往出行方式选择的相关研究中,大部分是基于个体属性对于方式选择的影响,而针对各类出行者特性与出行方式特征的关联性分析较少的情况,以拥有小汽车的中长距离通勤者为研究对象,提取相关的个体属性参数和交通方式特性参数构建结构方程模型,分析其个体属性与公交和小汽车出行特征之间的相互影响,从而探索各因素之间的关系以及对公交出行意愿的影响方向与程度。研究结果表明:个体的经济水平会对方式选择产生根本性的影响,更短的停车后步行时间、低廉的停车费用或充足的停车设施泊位供给会鼓励出行者选择自驾出行,而减少公交等车换乘时间,提高公交运行时速则会增强公交的吸引力,这对于城市中心区制定引导居民公交出行对策有一定借鉴意义。%Previous traffic mode researches are mainly based on the influences of individual characteristics to the traffic mode choice, and researches on the correlation analysis of different kinds of individual specialties and different traffic mode features are very limited. Taking the medium and long distance commuters as subjects, a structural equation model was built in this paper by extracting selective parameters of individual specialty and traffic mode features. Meanwhile, interactions between the individual specialties and the traffic mode features of public transportation or self-driving were analyzed, and then the direction and degree of all effective factors and the public transportation willingness were captured. Results show that individual economic level has essential effect on the traffic mode choice. Less walking time after parking, lower parking fee and abundant parking spaces encourage people to commute by car. However, the public transportation attraction increases by reducing the waiting and transfer time, and improving the running speed. This paper has

  11. Understanding cognition, choice, and behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corcoran, K J

    1995-09-01

    Bandura (1995) suggests that a "crusade against the causal efficacy of human thought" exists. The present paper disputes that claim, suggesting that the quest which does exist involves an understanding of self-efficacy. Examined are Bandura's shifting definitions of self-efficacy, his misunderstandings of others' work, and implications of some of his attempts to defend the construct. In the remainder of the paper Rotter's Social Learning Theory is discussed as a model of human choice behavior which recognizes the contributions of both cognitive and behavioral traditions within psychology, and has proven to be of great heuristic value. PMID:8576399

  12. Propulsion System Choices and Their Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyner, Claude R., II; Levack, Daniel J. H.; Rhodes, Russell, E.; Robinson, John W.

    2010-01-01

    In defining a space vehicle architecture, the propulsion system and related subsystem choices will have a major influence on achieving the goals and objectives desired. There are many alternatives and the choices made must produce a system that meets the performance requirements, but at the same time also provide the greatest opportunity of reaching all of the required objectives. Recognizing the above, the SPST Functional Requirements subteam has drawn on the knowledge, expertise, and experience of its members, to develop insight that wiIJ effectively aid the architectural concept developer in making the appropriate choices consistent with the architecture goals. This data not only identifies many selected choices, but also, more importantly, presents the collective assessment of this subteam on the "pros" and the "cons" of these choices. The propulsion system choices with their pros and cons are presented in five major groups. A. System Integration Approach. Focused on the requirement for safety, reliability, dependability, maintainability, and low cost. B. Non-Chemical Propulsion. Focused on choice of propulsion type. C. Chemical Propulsion. Focused on propellant choice implications. D. Functional Integration. Focused on the degree of integration of the many propulsive and closely associated functions, and on the choice of the engine combustion power cycle. E. Thermal Management. Focused on propellant tank insulation and integration. Each of these groups is further broken down into subgroups, and at that level the consensus pros and cons are presented. The intended use of this paper is to provide a resource of focused material for architectural concept developers to use in designing new advanced systems including college design classes. It is also a possible source of input material for developing a model for designing and analyzing advanced concepts to help identify focused technology needs and their priorities.

  13. Comparison and Analysis of Route Choice Models under Uncertain Road Network Condition%不确定路网条件下出行路径选择模型对比分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王燕; 张丽

    2011-01-01

    对出行路径选择模型作了简要解析,进而分别基于"期望效用理论"和"前景理论",建立不确定路网条件下的出行者出行路径选择模型,并结合实际算例及实证调查,对基于两种理论模型得出的结果做出对比分析,结果表明"前景理论"的研究思路更适合描述风险状况以及不确定条件下的个人出行决策行为.%With the national transportation scholars' further researches on the travel route choice, theoretical models are developed based on expected utility theory and prospect theory respectively.In the paper, the authors firstly give a brief analysis about the route choice models, and then establish the travel route choice models under uncertainty based on the expected utility theory and prospect theory respectively.With practical examples and empirical investigation, comparative analysis about the results based on the two theoretical models is conducted.And the shortcomings of the former are pointed out.The result obtained show that the latter one, the search idea of prospect theory is more appropriate to describing the personal travel decision behavior under the risk situation and uncertainty.

  14. Evaluation Model for Applying an E-Learning System in a Course: An Analytic Hierarchy Process-Multi-Choice Goal Programming Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Teng-Chiao; Ho, Hui-Ping; Chang, Ching-Ter

    2014-01-01

    With the widespread use of the Internet, adopting e-learning systems in courses has gradually become more and more important in universities in Taiwan. However, because of limitations of teachers' time, selecting suitable online IT tools has become very important. This study proposes an analytic hierarchy process (AHP)-multi-choice goal…

  15. Determining the Effects of Pre-College STEM Contexts on STEM Major Choices in 4-Year Postsecondary Institutions Using Multilevel Structural Equation Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ahlam

    2013-01-01

    Many STEM studies have focused on traditional learning contexts, such as math- and science-related learning factors, as pre-college learning predictors for STEM major choices in colleges. Few studies have considered a progressive learning activity embedded within STEM contexts. This study chose computer-based learning activities in K-12 math…

  16. Pragmatic choice in conversation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, Raymond W; Van Orden, Guy

    2012-01-01

    How do people decide what to say in context? Many theories of pragmatics assume that people have specialized knowledge that drives them to utter certain words in different situations. But these theories are mostly unable to explain both the regularity and variability in people's speech behaviors. Our purpose in this article is to advance a view of pragmatics based on complexity theory, which specifically explains the pragmatic choices speakers make in conversations. The concept of self-organized criticality sheds light on how a history of utterances and subtle details of a situation surrounding a conversation may directly specify language behavior. Under this view, pragmatic choice in discourse does not reflect the output of any dedicated pragmatic module but arises from a complex coordination or coupling between speakers and their varying communicative tasks. PMID:22253174

  17. Complex Strategic Choices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leleur, Steen

    . Complex Strategic Choices provides clear principles and methods which can guide and support strategic decision making to face the many current challenges. By considering ways in which planning practices can be renewed and exploring the possibilities for acquiring awareness and tools to add value to...... resulting in new material stemming from and focusing on practical application of a systemic approach. The outcome is a coherent and flexible approach named systemic planning. The inclusion of both the theoretical and practical aspects of systemic planning makes this book a key resource for researchers and...... students in the field of planning and decision analysis as well as practitioners dealing with strategic analysis and decision making. More broadly, Complex Strategic Choices acts as guide for professionals and students involved in complex planning tasks across several fields such as business and...

  18. The choice that disappeared

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjerris, Mickey; Saxe, Henrik

    apparent and acts of citizenship increasingly are reduced to ethical consumerism supposed to be performed while shopping. The suggested solution is to let food policies be decided to a much higher degree through the political process engaging humans as citizens rather than consumers in the process.......This article criticise the notion that ethical consumerism can solve the ethical issues related to sustainability and food production through an analysis of the complexity of the concept of sustainability as related to food choices. The current trend of leaving the political discussion and...... regulation of the food area to the political consumer is shown to be problematic as shopping for sustainability might be much harder than initially believed due to the conflicting considerations entailed in the concept. Thus political consumerism may give way to fatalism as the complexity of choices become...

  19. Exchange Rate Regime Choice

    OpenAIRE

    2006-01-01

    The choice of an adequate exchange rate regime proves to be a highly sensitive field within which the economic authorities present and confirm themselves. The advantages and disadvantages of fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes, which have been quite relativized from the conventional point of view, together with simultaneous, but not synchronised effects of structural and external factors, remain permanently questioned throughout a complex process of exchange rate regime decision making. ...

  20. Experimentation and Job Choice

    OpenAIRE

    2012-01-01

    In this article, we examine optimal job choices when jobs differ in the rate at which they reveal information about workers' skills. We then analyze how the optimal level of experimentation changes over a worker's career and characterize job transitions and wage growth over the life cycle. Using the Dictionary of Occupational Titles merged with the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, we then construct an index of how much information different occupations reveal about workers' skills ...

  1. Advertising and Portfolio Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Cronqvist, Henrik

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the role that advertising plays in the mutual fund industry and whether advertising affects investors’ fund and portfolio choices. Content analysis shows that only a small fraction of fund advertising is directly informative about characteristics relevant for rational investors, such as fund fees. Higher quantities of advertising do not signal ex ante higher unobservable fund manager ability, because funds that advertise more are not associated with higher post-advertising...

  2. Choice under Partial Uncertainty.

    OpenAIRE

    Kelsey, David

    1993-01-01

    This paper analyzes problems of choice under uncertainty where a decisionmaker does not use subjective probabilities. The decisionmaker has a set of beliefs about which states are more likely than others, but his beliefs cannot be represented as subjective probabilities. Three main kinds of decision rules are possible in this framework. These are maximin-type, maximax-type, and choosing that action that gives the highest payoff in the state, which the decisionmaker believes to be most likely....

  3. Choice and conditioned reinforcement.

    OpenAIRE

    Fantino, E; Freed, D; Preston, R. A.; Williams, W A

    1991-01-01

    A potential weakness of one formulation of delay-reduction theory is its failure to include a term for rate of conditioned reinforcement, that is, the rate at which the terminal-link stimuli occur in concurrent-chains schedules. The present studies assessed whether or not rate of conditioned reinforcement has an independent effect upon choice. Pigeons responded on either modified concurrent-chains schedules or on comparable concurrent-tandem schedules. The initial link was shortened on only o...

  4. The impact of choice context on consumers' choice heuristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mueller Loose, Simone; Scholderer, Joachim; Corsi, Armando M.;

    2012-01-01

    Context effects in choice settings have received recent attention but little is known about the impact of context on choice consistency and the extent to which consumers apply choice heuristics. The sequence of alternatives in a choice set is examined here as one specific context effect. We compare...... how a change from a typical price order to a sensory order in wine menus affects consumer choice. We use pre-specified latent heuristic classes to analyse the existence of different choice processes, which begins to untangle the ‘black box’ of how consumers choose. Our findings indicate that in the...... absence of price order, consumers are less price-sensitive, pay more attention to visually salient cues, are less consistent in their choices and employ other simple choice heuristics more frequently than price. Implications for consumer research, marketing and consumer policy are discussed....

  5. Topological social choice

    CERN Document Server

    1997-01-01

    The origins of this volume can be traced back to a conference on "Ethics, Economic and Business" organized by Columbia Busi­ ness School in March of 1993, and held in the splendid facilities of Columbia's Casa Italiana. Preliminary versions of several of the papers were presented at that meeting. In July 1994 the Fields Institute of Mathematical Sciences sponsored a workshop on "Geometry, Topology and Markets": additional papers and more refined versions of the original papers were presented there. They were published in their present versions in Social Choice and Wel­ fare, volume 14, number 2, 1997. The common aim of these workshops and this volume is to crystallize research in an area which has emerged rapidly in the last fifteen years, the area of topological approaches to social choice and the theory of games. The area is attracting increasing interest from social choice theorists, game theorists, mathematical econ­ omists and mathematicians, yet there is no authoritative collection of papers in the a...

  6. Social determinants of food choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, R

    1999-11-01

    Food choice is influenced by a large number of factors, including social and cultural factors. One method for trying to understand the impact of these factors is through the study of attitudes. Research is described which utilizes social psychological attitude models of attitude-behaviour relationships, in particular the Theory of Planned Behaviour. This approach has shown good prediction of behaviour, but there are a number of possible extensions to this basic model which might improve its utility. One such extension is the inclusion of measures of moral concern, which have been found to be important both for the choice of genetically-modified foods and also for foods to be eaten by others. It has been found to be difficult to effect dietary change, and there are a number of insights from social psychology which might address this difficulty. One is the phenomenon of optimistic bias, where individuals believe themselves to be at less risk from various hazards than the average person. This effect has been demonstrated for nutritional risks, and this might lead individuals to take less note of health education messages. Another concern is that individuals do not always have clear-cut attitudes, but rather can be ambivalent about food and about healthy eating. It is important, therefore, to have measures for this ambivalence, and an understanding of how it might impact on behaviour. PMID:10817147

  7. SU-D-9A-02: Relative Effects of Threshold Choice and Spatial Resolution Modeling On SUV and Volume Quantification in F18-FDG PET Imaging of Anal Cancer Patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purpose: PET imaging with F18-FDG is utilized for treatment planning, treatment assessment, and prognosis. A region of interest (ROI) encompassing the tumor may be determined on the PET image, often by a threshold T on the PET standard uptake values (SUVs). Several studies have shown prognostic value for relevant ROI properties including maximum SUV value (SUVmax), metabolic tumor volume (MTV), and total glycolytic activity (TGA). The choice of threshold T may affect mean SUV value (SUVmean), MTV, and TGA. Recently spatial resolution modeling (SRM) has been introduced on many PET systems. SRM may also affect these ROI properties. The purpose of this work is to investigate the relative influence of SRM and threshold choice T on SUVmean, MTV, TGA, and SUVmax. Methods: For 9 anal cancer patients, 18F-FDG PET scans were performed prior to treatment. PET images were reconstructed by 2 iterations of Ordered Subsets Expectation Maximization (OSEM), with and without SRM. ROI contours were generated by 5 different SUV threshold values T: 2.5, 3.0, 30%, 40%, and 50% of SUVmax. Paired-samples t tests were used to compare SUVmean, MTV, and TGA (a) for SRM on versus off and (b) between each pair of threshold values T. SUVmax was also compared for SRM on versus off. Results: For almost all (57/60) comparisons of 2 different threshold values, SUVmean, MTV, and TGA showed statistically significant variation. For comparison of SRM on versus off, there were no statistically significant changes in SUVmax and TGA, but there were statistically significant changes in MTV for T=2.5 and T=3.0 and in SUVmean for all T. Conclusion: The near-universal statistical significance of threshold choice T suggests that, regarding harmonization across sites, threshold choice may be a greater concern than choice of SRM. However, broader study is warranted, e.g. other iterations of OSEM should be considered

  8. The acetylcholinesterase inhibitor rivastigmine does not alter total choices for methamphetamine, but may reduce positive subjective effects, in a laboratory model of intravenous self-administration in human volunteers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De La Garza, R; Mahoney, J J; Culbertson, C; Shoptaw, S; Newton, T F

    2008-04-01

    A human laboratory model of intravenous methamphetamine self-administration may facilitate study of putative treatments for methamphetamine addiction. We conducted a double-blind, placebo-controlled, between groups investigation of the acetylcholinesterase (AChE) inhibitor rivastigmine in non-treatment-seeking volunteers who met criteria for methamphetamine abuse or dependence. Safety and subjective effects data derived from days 1-10 of this protocol are described in a separate publication. In this report, we describe self-administration outcomes in participants randomized to treatment with rivastigmine (0 mg, N=7; 1.5 mg, N=6; 3 mg, N=9); data that were collected on days 11-15 of the inpatient protocol. On day 11, participants sampled two infusions of methamphetamine (0 and 30 mg, i.v.). On days 12-15, participants made ten choices each day to receive an infusion of either methamphetamine (3 mg, IV) or saline or a monetary alternative ($0.05-$16). The study design allowed for evaluation of differences in behavior on days in which infusions were performed by the physician (experimenter-administered) versus by the participant using a PCA pump (self-administered), and when monetary alternatives were presented in either ascending or descending sequence. The data show that rivastigmine (1.5 and 3 mg), as compared to placebo, did not significantly alter total choices for methamphetamine (p=0.150). Importantly, the number of infusion choices was greater when methamphetamine was available then when saline was available (pmoney choices was greater when saline was available then when methamphetamine was available (pmoney was available in an ascending versus descending sequence (p=0.49). The participants' years of methamphetamine use, recent use of methamphetamine (in the past 30 days), or baseline craving (indexed here as "Desire") on the day of the self-administration task were not predictive of number of choices for methamphetamine. In a subset of participants (N=8) for

  9. Can A Rational Choice Framework Make Sense of Anorexia Nervosa?

    OpenAIRE

    Goldfarb, Robert S.; Thomas C. Leonard; Sara Markowitz; Steven Suranovic

    2009-01-01

    Can a rational choice modeling framework help broaden our understanding of anorexia nervosa? This question is interesting because anorexia nervosa is a serious health concern, and because of the following issue: could a rational choice approach shed useful light on a condition which appears to involve "choosing" to be ill? We present a model of weight choice and dieting applicable to anorexia nervosa, and the sometimes-associated purging behavior. We also present empirical evidence about fact...

  10. Risk Modelling and Strategic Choices in an Uncertain Environment. Case of a Swiss Power Provider on the eve of Electricity Market Opening

    OpenAIRE

    Nguene Nguene, Gustave; Finger, Matthias

    2005-01-01

    With electricity market liberalisation, the task of decision makers is becoming more and more difficult. In this framework, strategic portfolio choice has become very complex, because of the growing number of uncertain parameters involved, such as energy market prices, water inflow, and demand. The lack of information and the absence of the decision maker’s perception are just some of the many elements that must be accounted for. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to propose a methodol...

  11. Using a computational model to quantify the potential impact of changing the placement of healthy beverages in stores as an intervention to “Nudge” adolescent behavior choice

    OpenAIRE

    Wong, Michelle S.; Nau, Claudia; Kharmats, Anna Yevgenyevna; Vedovato, Gabriela Milhassi; Cheskin, Lawrence J.; Gittelsohn, Joel; Lee, Bruce Y.

    2015-01-01

    Background Product placement influences consumer choices in retail stores. While sugar sweetened beverage (SSB) manufacturers expend considerable effort and resources to determine how product placement may increase SSB purchases, the information is proprietary and not available to the public health and research community. This study aims to quantify the effect of non-SSB product placement in corner stores on adolescent beverage purchasing behavior. Corner stores are small privately owned reta...

  12. Channel Choice: A Literature Review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard Madsen, Christian; Kræmmergaard, Pernille

    2015-01-01

    The channel choice branch of e-government studies citizens’ and businesses’ choice of channels for interacting with government, and how government organizations can integrate channels and migrate users towards the most cost-efficient channels. In spite of the valuable contributions offered no sys...... systematic overview exist of channel choice. We present a literature review of channel choice studies in government to citizen context identifying authors, countries, methods, concepts, units of analysis, and theories, and offer suggestionsfor future studies....

  13. Choice of Law: New Foundations

    OpenAIRE

    Guzman, Andrew

    2000-01-01

    This Article develops a new approach to choice of law. Founded on economic principles rather than the notions of sovereignty that are typically used by choice of law scholars, it seeks to build new foundations for choice of law scholarship. The analysis in the Article makes it possible to discuss alternative choice of law rules in terms of their impact on the well-being of individuals. In other words, it makes it possible to consider questions of efficie...

  14. Evoked Emotions Predict Food Choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dalenberg, Jelle R.; Gutjar, Swetlana; ter Horst, Gert J.; de Graaf, Kees; Renken, Remco J.; Jager, Gerry

    2014-01-01

    In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Th

  15. Model izbora motocikla za potrebe saobraćajne podrške vojske / Model of motorcycle choice for traffic support needs in the military of Serbia and Montenegro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Predrag Stamenković

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Motocikli koji se koriste u jedinicama za regulisanje i kontrolu saobraćaja u Vojsci treba da imaju takve tehničko-eksploatacione karakteristike koje će u toku eksploatacionog perioda u potpunosti zadovoljiti stroge zahteve regulisanja i kontrole vojnog putnog saobraćaja i poboljšati kvalitet saobraćajne podrške u suvremenim borbenim dejstvima. Pri optimalnom izboru motocikla važno je razmatrati karakteristike motocikla i zahteve koje treba da ispuni. U radu je prikazan model izbora motocikala primenom metode višekriterijumskog rangiranja Promethee. / Motorcycles used in traffic direct and control units in the Military of Serbia and Montenegro should have such technical and operational characteristics that -will completely meet strict demands for directing and controlling military traffic and that -will improve the quality of traffic support in modern combat conditions. It is important to discuss characteristics of a motorcycle and demands it has to meet -when choosing "optimal" motorcycle model. This paper shows model of motorcycle choice using Promethee method of multiple ranging criteria.

  16. Making Healthy Choices Easier

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Pelle Guldborg; Skov, Laurits Rohden; Skov, Katrine Lund

    2016-01-01

    . However, integration and testing of the nudge approach as part of more comprehensive public health strategies aimed at making healthy choices easier is being threatened by inadequate understandings of its scientific character, relationship with regulation and its ethical implications. This article reviews......In recent years the nudge approach to behavior change has emerged from the behavioral sciences to challenge the traditional use of regulation in public health strategies for dealing with modifiable individual level behaviors related to the rise of noncommunicable diseases and their treatment...

  17. Research on Online Shopping Choice Behavior Based on Nested Logit Model%基于巢式Logit模型的网上购物选择行为研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蔡敏; 商滔

    2015-01-01

    基于Gumbel分布和多项Logit模型,提出建立顾客网上购物选择行为的巢式Logit模型,在SERVQUAL五维量表的基础上,设计了影响顾客购物选择行为的18个相关因素,同时将顾客购买行为分成共性部分和差异部分,采用极大似然法求解模型参数. 相比传统模型而言,巢式Logit模型具有更好的解释能力和稳定性,通过实例分析演示了模型的应用方法,为网上店铺优化服务质量提供了具体参考.%The nested Logit model of online shopping choice behavior is proposed based on Gumbel distribution and multinomial Logit model,and 18 related factors which affect customer's choice behavior are designed on the basis of five dimensional SERVQUAL scale.The shopping behavior is divided into common part and different part,maximum likelihood is used to solve the model parameters.Comparing to the traditional model,nested Logit model has better explanatory power and stability,through case study,the application of this model is demonstrated,which provide specific reference to optimize the quality of service for online stores.

  18. Response latencies in the analysis of conjoint choice experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haaijer, R; Kamakura, W; Wedel, M

    2000-01-01

    Response latencies provide information about consumers' choice behavior in a conjoint choice experiment. The authors use filtered response latencies to scale the covariance matrix of a multinomial probit model and show that this leads to better model fit and holdout predictions, even if the response

  19. Time, Self & Intertemporal Choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CintiaRetz Lucci

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Neuroscientific studies of intertemporal choice (IC have focused mainly on the neural representation of self-control mechanisms and valuation. This reflects what has been considered as the core of the IC phenomenon. The claim of this paper is that deviations from exponential reward discounting as a function of time might be fully accounted for by the deviation of subjective time from calendar time. This claim is based on evidence that specificities of time perception can modulate discounting. Consequently, time perception is fundamental to IC and it is crucial to understand the mechanisms underlying time processing in different situations; to investigate when human time perception differs from time as represented by the calendar metric system; and to study how time perception predicts choices. This paper surveys the recent literature on time perception in order to discuss the measuring of IC through time-perception specificities. The notion of self is also discussed within this temporal perspective. If time perception modulates discounting, and time perception is related to self, the relationship between self and time perception becomes a new path to be explored in the IC studies.

  20. Limitations of modern microeconomic theory of consumer choice: Sociological perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radonjić Ognjen

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Neoclassical theory of consumer choice needs to be reformed. Assumption that consumer choice is not influenced by the choice of others is in collision with reality. New and better theory of consumer choice is unimaginable without incorporation of intersubjective factors into the model of derivation of individual and aggregate (market demand functions. Goal of this study is to underline widely neglected sociological factors that have significant influence on motivation and behavior of consumers. Inclusion of these factors into modern microeconomic theory is of essential importance if we are about to construct theoretical model aimed to describe reality in which we daily exist better than its predecessor did.