WorldWideScience

Sample records for choice models

  1. Mode choice model parameters estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Strnad, Irena

    2010-01-01

    The present work focuses on parameter estimation of two mode choice models: multinomial logit and EVA 2 model, where four different modes and five different trip purposes are taken into account. Mode choice model discusses the behavioral aspect of mode choice making and enables its application to a traffic model. Mode choice model includes mode choice affecting trip factors by using each mode and their relative importance to choice made. When trip factor values are known, it...

  2. Social Networks and Choice Set Formation in Discrete Choice Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Wichmann

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The discrete choice literature has evolved from the analysis of a choice of a single item from a fixed choice set to the incorporation of a vast array of more complex representations of preferences and choice set formation processes into choice models. Modern discrete choice models include rich specifications of heterogeneity, multi-stage processing for choice set determination, dynamics, and other elements. However, discrete choice models still largely represent socially isolated choice processes —individuals are not affected by the preferences of choices of other individuals. There is a developing literature on the impact of social networks on preferences or the utility function in a random utility model but little examination of such processes for choice set formation. There is also emerging evidence in the marketplace of the influence of friends on choice sets and choices. In this paper we develop discrete choice models that incorporate formal social network structures into the choice set formation process in a two-stage random utility framework. We assess models where peers may affect not only the alternatives that individuals consider or include in their choice sets, but also consumption choices. We explore the properties of our models and evaluate the extent of “errors” in assessment of preferences, economic welfare measures and market shares if network effects are present, but are not accounted for in the econometric model. Our results shed light on the importance of the evaluation of peer or network effects on inclusion/exclusion of alternatives in a random utility choice framework.

  3. New Route Choice Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Otto Anker

    Artiklen præsenterer og diskuterer forskellige rutevalgsmodeller. Konklusionen er, at der for bytrafik altid bør benyttes modeller, der både er stokastiske og trafikafhængige. Af trafikafhængige modeller er det hidtil kun vist, at Successive Gennemsnits Metode (MSA) er konvergent. Stochastic User...

  4. Choice-Based Conjoint Analysis: Classification vs. Discrete Choice Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giesen, Joachim; Mueller, Klaus; Taneva, Bilyana; Zolliker, Peter

    Conjoint analysis is a family of techniques that originated in psychology and later became popular in market research. The main objective of conjoint analysis is to measure an individual's or a population's preferences on a class of options that can be described by parameters and their levels. We consider preference data obtained in choice-based conjoint analysis studies, where one observes test persons' choices on small subsets of the options. There are many ways to analyze choice-based conjoint analysis data. Here we discuss the intuition behind a classification based approach, and compare this approach to one based on statistical assumptions (discrete choice models) and to a regression approach. Our comparison on real and synthetic data indicates that the classification approach outperforms the discrete choice models.

  5. Model choice in nonnested families

    CERN Document Server

    Pereira, Basilio de Bragança

    2016-01-01

    This book discusses the problem of model choice when the statistical models are separate, also called nonnested. Chapter 1 provides an introduction, motivating examples and a general overview of the problem. Chapter 2 presents the classical or frequentist approach to the problem as well as several alternative procedures and their properties. Chapter 3 explores the Bayesian approach, the limitations of the classical Bayes factors and the proposed alternative Bayes factors to overcome these limitations. It also discusses a significance Bayesian procedure. Lastly, Chapter 4 examines the pure likelihood approach. Various real-data examples and computer simulations are provided throughout the text.

  6. Discrete Choice Models - Estimation of Passenger Traffic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Majken Vildrik

    2003-01-01

    for data, a literature review follows. Models applied for estimation of discrete choice models are described by properties and limitations, and relations between these are established. Model types are grouped into three classes, Hybrid choice models, Tree models and Latent class models. Relations between......This thesis gives an overview of what has been done in the research area of passenger transport modelling, with a focus on the model type in the core of a model complex. After a formulation of the choice problem (choice probability, the set alternatives), a method for estimation and requirements...... model, data and estimation are described, with a focus of possibilities/limitations of different techniques. Two special issues of modelling are addressed in further detail, namely data segmentation and estimation of Mixed Logit models. Both issues are concerned with whether individuals can be assumed...

  7. MULTINOMINAL LOGIT MODEL OF BICYCLIST ROUTE CHOICE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Chernyshova

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the multinominal logit discrete choice model that allows determining parameters coefficients of the cyclists’ route. The basic model includes six parameters, however, only a number of signalized intersections, speed of motorized traffic and total physical work required from cyclist prove to be significant factors. The model provides a better understanding about cyclist traffic assignment.

  8. Developing a Model of Occupational Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egner, Joan Roos

    1974-01-01

    Rational and non-rational decision-making models of occupational choice are described. The Blau model provides an alternative to these. This model contains an occupational set of factors and a set related to the individual. Research supporting its conceptual utility and activities illustrating its pragmatic utility are discussed. (EAK)

  9. Consumer Vehicle Choice Model Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Changzheng [ORNL; Greene, David L [ORNL

    2012-08-01

    In response to the Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions standards, automobile manufacturers will need to adopt new technologies to improve the fuel economy of their vehicles and to reduce the overall GHG emissions of their fleets. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed the Optimization Model for reducing GHGs from Automobiles (OMEGA) to estimate the costs and benefits of meeting GHG emission standards through different technology packages. However, the model does not simulate the impact that increased technology costs will have on vehicle sales or on consumer surplus. As the model documentation states, “While OMEGA incorporates functions which generally minimize the cost of meeting a specified carbon dioxide (CO2) target, it is not an economic simulation model which adjusts vehicle sales in response to the cost of the technology added to each vehicle.” Changes in the mix of vehicles sold, caused by the costs and benefits of added fuel economy technologies, could make it easier or more difficult for manufacturers to meet fuel economy and emissions standards, and impacts on consumer surplus could raise the costs or augment the benefits of the standards. Because the OMEGA model does not presently estimate such impacts, the EPA is investigating the feasibility of developing an adjunct to the OMEGA model to make such estimates. This project is an effort to develop and test a candidate model. The project statement of work spells out the key functional requirements for the new model.

  10. A link based network route choice model with unrestricted choice set

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Frejinger, Emma; Karlstrom, Anders

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers the path choice problem, formulating and discussing an econometric random utility model for the choice of path in a network with no restriction on the choice set. Starting from a dynamic specification of link choices we show that it is equivalent to a static model...... additive. The model is applied to data recording path choices in a network with more than 3000 nodes and 7000 links....

  11. Parental role models, gender and educational choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dryler, H

    1998-09-01

    Parental role models are often put forward as an explanation for the choice of gender-atypical educational routes. This paper aims to test such explanations by examining the impact of family background variables like parental education and occupation, on choice of educational programme at upper secondary school. Using a sample of around 73,000 Swedish teenagers born between 1972 and 1976, girls' and boys' gender-atypical as well as gender-typical educational choices are analysed by means of logistic regression. Parents working or educated within a specific field increase the probability that a child will make a similar choice of educational programme at upper secondary school. This same-sector effect appeared to be somewhat stronger for fathers and sons, while no such same-sex influence was confirmed for girls. No evidence was found that, in addition to a same-sector effect, it matters whether parents' occupations represent gender-traditional or non-traditional models. Parents of the service classes or highly educated parents--expected to be the most gender egalitarian in attitudes and behaviours--have a positive influence upon children's choice of gender-atypical education.

  12. Process and Context in Choice Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben-Akiva, Moshe; Palma, André de; McFadden, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    We develop a general framework that extends choice models by including an explicit representation of the process and context of decision making. Process refers to the steps involved in decision making. Context refers to factors affecting the process, focusing in this paper on social networks. The...

  13. Model for understanding consumer textural food choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeltema, Melissa; Beckley, Jacqueline; Vahalik, Jennifer

    2015-05-01

    The current paradigm for developing products that will match the marketing messaging is flawed because the drivers of product choice and satisfaction based on texture are misunderstood. Qualitative research across 10 years has led to the thesis explored in this research that individuals have a preferred way to manipulate food in their mouths (i.e., mouth behavior) and that this behavior is a major driver of food choice, satisfaction, and the desire to repurchase. Texture, which is currently thought to be a major driver of product choice, is a secondary factor, and is important only in that it supports the primary driver-mouth behavior. A model for mouth behavior is proposed and the qualitative research supporting the identification of different mouth behaviors is presented. The development of a trademarked typing tool for characterizing mouth behavior is described along with quantitative substantiation of the tool's ability to group individuals by mouth behavior. The use of these four groups to understand textural preferences and the implications for a variety of areas including product design and weight management are explored.

  14. The Stay/Switch Model of Concurrent Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonall, James S.

    2009-01-01

    This experiment compared descriptions of concurrent choice by the stay/switch model, which says choice is a function of the reinforcers obtained for staying at and for switching from each alternative, and the generalized matching law, which says choice is a function of the total reinforcers obtained at each alternative. For the stay/switch model…

  15. Estimating hybrid choice models with the new version of Biogeme

    OpenAIRE

    Bierlaire, Michel

    2010-01-01

    Hybrid choice models integrate many types of discrete choice modeling methods, including latent classes and latent variables, in order to capture concepts such as perceptions, attitudes, preferences, and motivatio (Ben-Akiva et al., 2002). Although they provide an excellent framework to capture complex behavior patterns, their use in applications remains rare in the literature due to the difficulty of estimating the models. In this talk, we provide a short introduction to hybrid choice model...

  16. Rationality in a general model of choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Somdeb Lahiri

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we consider choice correspondences which may be empty-valued. We study conditions under which such choice correspondences are rational, transitively rational, partially rational, partially almost transitive rational, partially almost quasi-transitive rational. This provides fresh impetus and understanding of multi-criteria decision making.

  17. A nested recursive logit model for route choice analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mai, Tien; Frejinger, Emma; Fosgerau, Mogens

    2015-01-01

    We propose a route choice model that relaxes the independence from irrelevant alternatives property of the logit model by allowing scale parameters to be link specific. Similar to the recursive logit (RL) model proposed by Fosgerau et al. (2013), the choice of path is modeled as a sequence of link...

  18. A practical test for the choice of mixing distribution in discrete choice models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Bierlaire, Michel

    2007-01-01

    The choice of a specific distribution for random parameters of discrete choice models is a critical issue in transportation analysis. Indeed, various pieces of research have demonstrated that an inappropriate choice of the distribution may lead to serious bias in model forecast and in the estimated...... means of random parameters. In this paper, we propose a practical test, based on seminonparametric techniques. The test is analyzed both on synthetic and real data, and is shown to be simple and powerful. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  19. A Neurocomputational Model of Altruistic Choice and Its Implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutcherson, Cendri A; Bushong, Benjamin; Rangel, Antonio

    2015-07-15

    We propose a neurocomputational model of altruistic choice and test it using behavioral and fMRI data from a task in which subjects make choices between real monetary prizes for themselves and another. We show that a multi-attribute drift-diffusion model, in which choice results from accumulation of a relative value signal that linearly weights payoffs for self and other, captures key patterns of choice, reaction time, and neural response in ventral striatum, temporoparietal junction, and ventromedial prefrontal cortex. The model generates several novel insights into the nature of altruism. It explains when and why generous choices are slower or faster than selfish choices, and why they produce greater response in TPJ and vmPFC, without invoking competition between automatic and deliberative processes or reward value for generosity. It also predicts that when one's own payoffs are valued more than others', some generous acts may reflect mistakes rather than genuinely pro-social preferences.

  20. Hybrid Compensatory-Noncompensatory Choice Sets in Semicompensatory Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Bekhor, Shlomo; Shiftan, Yoram

    2013-01-01

    by a mathematical model that combines multinomial-response and ordered-response thresholds with a utility-based choice. The proposed model is applied to a stated preference experiment of off-campus rental apartment choices by students. Results demonstrate the applicability and feasibility of incorporating...

  1. Hyperbolic value addition and general models of animal choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazur, J E

    2001-01-01

    Three mathematical models of choice--the contextual-choice model (R. Grace, 1994), delay-reduction theory (N. Squires & E. Fantino, 1971), and a new model called the hyperbolic value-added model--were compared in their ability to predict the results from a wide variety of experiments with animal subjects. When supplied with 2 or 3 free parameters, all 3 models made fairly accurate predictions for a large set of experiments that used concurrent-chain procedures. One advantage of the hyperbolic value-added model is that it is derived from a simpler model that makes accurate predictions for many experiments using discrete-trial adjusting-delay procedures. Some results favor the hyperbolic value-added model and delay-reduction theory over the contextual-choice model, but more data are needed from choice situations for which the models make distinctly different predictions.

  2. Incorporating Context Effects into a Choice Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rooderkerk, Robert P.; Van Heerde, Harald J.; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.

    2011-01-01

    The behavioral literature provides ample evidence that consumer preferences are partly driven by the context provided by the set of alternatives. Three important context effects are the compromise, attraction, and similarity effects. Because these context effects affect choices in a systematic and p

  3. Comparative study on mode split discrete choice models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xianlong Chen; Xiaoqian Liu; Fazhi Li

    2013-01-01

    Discrete choice model acts as one of the most important tools for studies involving mode split in the context of transport demand forecast. As different types of discrete choice models display their merits and restrictions diversely, how to properly select the specific type among discrete choice models for realistic application still remains to be a tough problem. In this article, five typical discrete choice models for transport mode split are, respectively, discussed, which includes multinomial logit model, nested logit model (NL), heteroscedastic extreme value model, multinominal probit model and mixed multinomial logit model (MMNL). The theoretical basis and application attributes of these five models are especially analysed with great attention, and they are also applied to a realistic intercity case of mode split forecast, which results indi-cating that NL model does well in accommodating simi-larity and heterogeneity across alternatives, while MMNL model serves as the most effective method for mode choice prediction since it shows the highest reliability with the least significant prediction errors and even outperforms the other four models in solving the heterogeneity and similarity problems. This study indicates that conclusions derived from a single discrete choice model are not reli-able, and it is better to choose the proper model based on its characteristics.

  4. Meta-analysis of choice set generation effects on route choice model estimates and predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    are applied for model estimation and results are compared to the ‘true model estimates’. Last, predictions from the simulation of models estimated with objective choice sets are compared to the ‘postulated predicted routes’. A meta-analytical approach allows synthesizing the effect of judgments...... for the implementation of path generation techniques, since a large number of models generate a large amount of results that are otherwise difficult to summarize and to process. Meta-analysis estimates suggest that transport modelers should implement stochastic path generation techniques with average variance of its......Large scale applications of behaviorally realistic transport models pose several challenges to transport modelers on both the demand and the supply sides. On the supply side, path-based solutions to the user assignment equilibrium problem help modelers in enhancing the route choice behavior...

  5. Modeling Consideration Sets and Brand Choice Using Artificial Neural Networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.L.K. Vroomen (Björn); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); J.E.M. van Nierop

    2001-01-01

    textabstractThe concept of consideration sets makes brand choice a two-step process. House-holds first construct a consideration set which not necessarily includes all available brands and conditional on this set they make a final choice. In this paper we put forward a parametric econometric model f

  6. A Simplified Model of Choice Behavior under Uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Lin, Ching-Hung; Lin, Yu-Kai; Song, Tzu-Jiun; Huang, Jong-Tsun; Chiu, Yao-Chu

    2016-01-01

    The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) has been standardized as a clinical assessment tool (Bechara, 2007). Nonetheless, numerous research groups have attempted to modify IGT models to optimize parameters for predicting the choice behavior of normal controls and patients. A decade ago, most researchers considered the expected utility (EU) model (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002) to be the optimal model for predicting choice behavior under uncertainty. However, in recent years, studies have demonstrated that m...

  7. A simplified model of choice behavior under uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Ching-Hung Lin; Yu-Kai Lin; Tzu-Jiun Song; Jong-Tsun Huang; Yao-Chu Chiu

    2016-01-01

    The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) has been standardized as a clinical assessment tool (Bechara, 2007). Nonetheless, numerous research groups have attempted to modify IGT models to optimize parameters for predicting the choice behavior of normal controls and patients. A decade ago, most researchers considered the expected utility (EU) model (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002) to be the optimal model for predicting choice behavior under uncertainty. However, in recent years, studies have demonstrated the pr...

  8. Sexual selection under parental choice: a revision to the model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apostolou, Menelaos

    2014-06-01

    Across human cultures, parents exercise considerable influence over their children's mate choices. The model of parental choice provides a good account of these patterns, but its prediction that male parents exercise more control than female ones is not well founded in evolutionary theory. To address this shortcoming, the present article proposes a revision to the model. In particular, parental uncertainty, residual reproductive value, reproductive variance, asymmetry in the control of resources, physical strength, and access to weaponry make control over mating more profitable for male parents than female ones; in turn, this produces an asymmetrical incentive for controlling mate choice. Several implications of this formulation are also explored.

  9. Model Adequacy Checks for Discrete Choice Dynamic Models

    CERN Document Server

    Kheifets, Igor

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes new parametric model adequacy tests for possibly nonlinear and nonstationary time series models with noncontinuous data distribution, which is often the case in applied work. In particular, we consider the correct specification of parametric conditional distributions in dynamic discrete choice models, not only of some particular conditional characteristics such as moments or symmetry. Knowing the true distribution is important in many circumstances, in particular to apply efficient maximum likelihood methods, obtain consistent estimates of partial effects and appropriate predictions of the probability of future events. We propose a transformation of data which under the true conditional distribution leads to continuous uniform iid series. The uniformity and serial independence of the new series is then examined simultaneously. The transformation can be considered as an extension of the integral transform tool for noncontinuous data. We derive asymptotic properties of such tests taking into...

  10. Combinatorial Model Involving Stochastic Choices of Destination, Mode and Route

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Traffic assignment models are one of the basic tools for the analysis and design of transportation systems. However, the existing models have some defects. Considering the characteristics of Chinese urban mixed traffic and the randomness of transportation information, the author develops a combinatorial model involving stochastic choices of destination, mode and route. Its uniqueness and equivalance are also proved by the optimization theory.

  11. A discussion of mode choice models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Otto Anker

    Artiklen diskuterer matematiske modeller for transportmiddelvalg med særlig fokus på modeller, der bygger på nyttefunktioner. I kapitel 3 refereres til et begrænset eksperiment, der viste at den sædvanlige lineære nyttefunktion ikke er tilstrækkelig til at beskrive selv en meget simpel...... rent fysiologiske be-tragtninger. Artiklen rummer en række anbefalinger vedr. den deterministiske del af nyttefunktionen. Kapitel 5 diskuterer fordelingen af den stokastiske del, og anbefaler brug af probit-modeller for valgsituatio-ner med flere alternativer, der er mere eller mindre indbyrdes...

  12. Structural Equation Modeling of Travel Choice Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Golob, Thomas F.

    1988-01-01

    This research has two objectives. The first objective is to explore the use of the modeling tool called "latent structural equations" (structural equations with latent variables) in the general field of travel behavior analysis and the more specific field of dynamic analysis of travel behavior. The second objective is to apply a latent structural equation model in order to determine the causal relationships between income, car ownership, and mobility. Many transportation researchers ...

  13. Street Choice Logit Model for Visitors in Shopping Districts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ko Kawada

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we propose two models for predicting people’s activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation. The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that “have more shops, and are wider and lower”. In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive and CARS (negative. Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive.

  14. Discrete choice models with multiplicative error terms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Bierlaire, Michel

    2009-01-01

    differences. We develop some properties of this type of model and show that in several cases the change from an additive to a multiplicative formulation, maintaining a specification of V, may lead to a large improvement in fit, sometimes larger than that gained from introducing random coefficients in V....

  15. Epistemic Games in Integration: Modeling Resource Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Katrina E.; Wittmann, Michael C.

    2007-11-01

    As part of an ongoing project to understand how mathematics is used in advanced physics to guide one's conceptual understanding of physics, we focus on students' interpretation and use of boundary and initial conditions when solving integrals. We discuss an interaction between two students working on a group quiz problem. After describing the interaction, we briefly discuss the procedural resources that we use to model the students' solutions. We then use the procedural resources introduced earlier to draw resources graphs describing the two epistemic game facets used by the students in our transcript.

  16. Modeling Stochastic Route Choice Behaviors with Equivalent Impedance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A Logit-based route choice model is proposed to address the overlapping and scaling problems in the traditional multinomial Logit model. The nonoverlapping links are defined as a subnetwork, and its equivalent impedance is explicitly calculated in order to simply network analyzing. The overlapping links are repeatedly merged into subnetworks with Logit-based equivalent travel costs. The choice set at each intersection comprises only the virtual equivalent route without overlapping. In order to capture heterogeneity in perception errors of different sizes of networks, different scale parameters are assigned to subnetworks and they are linked to the topological relationships to avoid estimation burden. The proposed model provides an alternative method to model the stochastic route choice behaviors without the overlapping and scaling problems, and it still maintains the simple and closed-form expression from the MNL model. A link-based loading algorithm based on Dial’s algorithm is proposed to obviate route enumeration and it is suitable to be applied on large-scale networks. Finally a comparison between the proposed model and other route choice models is given by numerical examples.

  17. A Conditioned Model for Choice of Mode Under Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agha Faisal Habib Pathan

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the influence of time and cost information obtained from different sources on choice of mode of Leeds' long distance travellers. The choice of mode was investigated through modal attributes provided by at least two different information sources which might provide contrary or corroborating information rather than on actual attributes. The experiment included telephone administered questionnaire including RP (Revealed Preference questions and an SP (Stated Preference exercise dealing with the choice of modes conditioned by the information received from various sources. Information on travel time and cost was provided from two different information sources for each mode to facilitate the conditioning of mode choice on corroborating/contradictory information. The research employs a wide range of modelling methodologies and examines a range of traditional and newly developed calibration and estimation procedures including Mixed Logit models with individual specific parameters and the newly developed RRM (Random Regret Minimisation framework. The study confirms that the market share of the modes increases when information sources show decreased travel time and cost values and shows that the maximum shares are achieved when different information sources give the same information to the travellers. The study found that pre-trip time information has more influence on mode choice when derived from websites than when derived from other sources. Pre-trip information on costs was, however, less influential when derived from websites than when derived from other sources.

  18. Differential Role Models and the College Woman's Choice of Major.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getz, Suzanne Kasper

    A two-part study investigated female college students' preferences for stereotyped or nonstereotyped role models and the relationship of such preferences to the choice of traditional versus nontraditional careers. A total of 211 women students from a mid-Atlantic state university (all the enrolled women) as well as a stratified-by-college…

  19. Day-to-day route choice modeling incorporating inertial behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Essen, van M.A.; Rakha, H.; Vreeswijk, J.D.; Wismans, L.J.J.; Berkum, van E.C.

    2015-01-01

    Accurate route choice modeling is one of the most important aspects when predicting the effects of transport policy and dynamic traffic management. Moreover, the effectiveness of intervention measures to a large extent depends on travelers’ response to the changes these measures cause. As a compleme

  20. Medicare Care Choices Model Enables Concurrent Palliative and Curative Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    On July 20, 2015, the federal Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) announced hospices that have been selected to participate in the Medicare Care Choices Model. Fewer than half of the Medicare beneficiaries use hospice care for which they are eligible. Current Medicare regulations preclude concurrent palliative and curative care. Under the Medicare Choices Model, dually eligible Medicare beneficiaries may elect to receive supportive care services typically provided by hospice while continuing to receive curative services. This report describes how CMS has expanded the model from an originally anticipated 30 Medicare-certified hospices to over 140 Medicare-certified hospices and extended the duration of the model from 3 to 5 years. Medicare-certified hospice programs that will participate in the model are listed.

  1. A simplified model of choice behavior under uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Hung Lin

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT has been standardized as a clinical assessment tool (Bechara, 2007. Nonetheless, numerous research groups have attempted to modify IGT models to optimize parameters for predicting the choice behavior of normal controls and patients. A decade ago, most researchers considered the expected utility (EU model (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002 to be the optimal model for predicting choice behavior under uncertainty. However, in recent years, studies have demonstrated the prospect utility (PU models (Ahn et al., 2008 to be more effective than the EU models in the IGT. Nevertheless, after some preliminary tests, we propose that Ahn et al. (2008 PU model is not optimal due to some incompatible results between our behavioral and modeling data. This study aims to modify Ahn et al. (2008 PU model to a simplified model and collected 145 subjects’ IGT performance as the benchmark data for comparison. In our simplified PU model, the best goodness-of-fit was found mostly while α approaching zero. More specifically, we retested the key parameters α, λ , and A in the PU model. Notably, the power of influence of the parameters α, λ, and A has a hierarchical order in terms of manipulating the goodness-of-fit in the PU model. Additionally, we found that the parameters λ and A may be ineffective when the parameter α is close to zero in the PU model. The present simplified model demonstrated that decision makers mostly adopted the strategy of gain-stay-loss-shift rather than foreseeing the long-term outcome. However, there still have other behavioral variables that are not well revealed under these dynamic uncertainty situations. Therefore, the optimal behavioral models may not have been found. In short, the best model for predicting choice behavior under dynamic-uncertainty situations should be further evaluated.

  2. Binary choices in small and large groups: A unified model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bischi, Gian-Italo; Merlone, Ugo

    2010-02-01

    Two different ways to model the diffusion of alternative choices within a population of individuals in the presence of social externalities are known in the literature. While Galam’s model of rumors spreading considers a majority rule for interactions in several groups, Schelling considers individuals interacting in one large group, with payoff functions that describe how collective choices influence individual preferences. We incorporate these two approaches into a unified general discrete-time dynamic model for studying individual interactions in variously sized groups. We first illustrate how the two original models can be obtained as particular cases of the more general model we propose, then we show how several other situations can be analyzed. The model we propose goes beyond a theoretical exercise as it allows modeling situations which are relevant in economic and social systems. We consider also other aspects such as the propensity to switch choices and the behavioral momentum, and show how they may affect the dynamics of the whole population.

  3. Consumer Choice Prediction: Artificial Neural Networks versus Logistic Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Gan

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Conventional econometric models, such as discriminant analysis and logistic regression have been used to predict consumer choice. However, in recent years, there has been a growing interest in applying artificial neural networks (ANN to analyse consumer behaviour and to model the consumer decision-making process. The purpose of this paper is to empirically compare the predictive power of the probability neural network (PNN, a special class of neural networks and a MLFN with a logistic model on consumers’ choices between electronic banking and non-electronic banking. Data for this analysis was obtained through a mail survey sent to 1,960 New Zealand households. The questionnaire gathered information on the factors consumers’ use to decide between electronic banking versus non-electronic banking. The factors include service quality dimensions, perceived risk factors, user input factors, price factors, service product characteristics and individual factors. In addition, demographic variables including age, gender, marital status, ethnic background, educational qualification, employment, income and area of residence are considered in the analysis. Empirical results showed that both ANN models (MLFN and PNN exhibit a higher overall percentage correct on consumer choice predictions than the logistic model. Furthermore, the PNN demonstrates to be the best predictive model since it has the highest overall percentage correct and a very low percentage error on both Type I and Type II errors.

  4. Understanding Predisposition in College Choice: Toward an Integrated Model of College Choice and Theory of Reasoned Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitre, Paul E.; Johnson, Todd E.; Pitre, Charisse Cowan

    2006-01-01

    This article seeks to improve traditional models of college choice that draw from recruitment and enrollment management paradigms. In adopting a consumer approach to college choice, this article seeks to build upon consumer-related research, which centers on behavior and reasoning. More specifically, this article seeks to move inquiry beyond the…

  5. Sample selection and taste correlation in discrete choice transport modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

    2008-01-01

    the question for a broader class of models. It is shown that the original result may be somewhat generalised. Another question investigated is whether mode choice operates as a self-selection mechanism in the estimation of the value of travel time. The results show that self-selection can at least partly...... explain counterintuitive results in value of travel time estimation. However, the results also point at the difficulty of finding suitable instruments for the selection mechanism. Taste heterogeneity is another important aspect of discrete choice modelling. Mixed logit models are designed to capture...... of taste correlation in willingness-to-pay estimation are presented. The first contribution addresses how to incorporate taste correlation in the estimation of the value of travel time for public transport. Given a limited dataset the approach taken is to use theory on the value of travel time as guidance...

  6. Closing the gap between behavior and models in route choice: The role of spatiotemporal constraints and latent traits in choice set formation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    A considerable gap exists between the behavioral paradigm of choice set formation in route choice and its representation in route choice modeling. While travelers form their viable choice set by retaining routes that satisfy spatiotemporal constraints, existing route generation techniques do...... constraint-based choice set formation followed by compensatory choice. The model is applied to data focusing on habitual commuting route choice behavior in morning peak hours. Results show (i) the possibility of inferring spatiotemporal constraints from considered routes, (ii) the importance of incorporating...... spatiotemporal constraints and latent traits in route choice models, and (iii) the linkage between spatiotemporal constraints and time saving, spatial and mnemonic abilities....

  7. Representing hybrid compensatory non-compensatory choice set formation in semi-compensatory models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Bekhor, Shlomo; Shigtan, Yoram

    2012-01-01

    Semi-compensatory models represent a choice process consisting of an elimination-based choice set formation upon satisfying criteria thresholds and a utility-based choice. Current semi-compensatory models assume a purely non-compensatory choice set formation and hence do not support multinomial c...

  8. Robustness of public choice models of voting behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihai UNGUREANU

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Modern economics modeling practice involves highly unrealistic assumptions. Since testing such models is not always an easy enterprise, researchers face the problem of determining whether a result is dependent (or not on the unrealistic details of the model. A solution for this problem is conducting robustness analysis. In its classical form, robustness analysis is a non-empirical method of confirmation – it raises our trust in a given result by implying it with from several different models. In this paper I argue that robustness analysis could be thought as a method of post-empirical failure. This form of robustness analysis involves assigning guilt for the empirical failure to a certain part of the model. Starting from this notion of robustness, I analyze a case of empirical failure from public choice theory or the economic approach of politics. Using the fundamental methodological principles of neoclassical economics, the first model of voting behavior implied that almost no one would vote. This was clearly an empirical failure. Public choice scholars faced the problem of either restraining the domain of their discipline or giving up to some of their neoclassical methodological features. The second solution was chosen and several different models of voting behavior were built. I will treat these models as a case for performing robustness analysis and I will determine which assumption from the original model is guilty for the empirical failure.

  9. Modal choice model for fare-free transit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, A.; Goss, W.P.

    1977-03-01

    Using travel data collected at the University of Massachusetts during a research and demonstration project sponsored by the Urban Mass Transportation Administration, a disaggregate behavioral-mode choice model has been developed for predicting ridership on fare-free transit systems. The calibrated model suggests that access time to the fare-free transit stop, annual automobile parking fee, auto mode bias constant reflecting the comfort and convenience associated with auto travel, and number of autos available for commuting are the most significant attributes in explaining the mode choice between auto and fare-free transit. For this specific demonstration project, some level-of-service variables, such as the difference between in-vehicle travel time using auto and fare-free transit, auto operating cost, wait time at the fare-free transit stop, and some of the socio-economic attributes of the commuter, such as sex and status, were not found to be as important in affecting the mode choice. 14 references.

  10. Simple model for multiple-choice collective decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ching Hua; Lucas, Andrew

    2014-11-01

    We describe a simple model of heterogeneous, interacting agents making decisions between n≥2 discrete choices. For a special class of interactions, our model is the mean field description of random field Potts-like models and is effectively solved by finding the extrema of the average energy E per agent. In these cases, by studying the propagation of decision changes via avalanches, we argue that macroscopic dynamics is well captured by a gradient flow along E. We focus on the permutation symmetric case, where all n choices are (on average) the same, and spontaneous symmetry breaking (SSB) arises purely from cooperative social interactions. As examples, we show that bimodal heterogeneity naturally provides a mechanism for the spontaneous formation of hierarchies between decisions and that SSB is a preferred instability to discontinuous phase transitions between two symmetric points. Beyond the mean field limit, exponentially many stable equilibria emerge when we place this model on a graph of finite mean degree. We conclude with speculation on decision making with persistent collective oscillations. Throughout the paper, we emphasize analogies between methods of solution to our model and common intuition from diverse areas of physics, including statistical physics and electromagnetism.

  11. Guidance on the Choice of Threshold for Binary Forecast Modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    This paper proposes useful guidance on the choice of threshold for binary forecasts. In weather forecast systems, the probabilistic forecast cannot be used directly when estimated too smoothly. In this case, the binary forecast, whether a meteorological event will occur or not, is preferable to the probabilistic forecast.A threshold is needed to generate a binary forecast, and the guidance in this paper encompasses the use of skill scores for the choice of threshold according to the forecast pattern. The forecast pattern consists of distribution modes of estimated probabilities, occurrence rates of observations, and variation modes.This study is performed via Monte-Carlo simulation, with 48 forecast patterns considered. Estimated probabilities are generated by random variate sampling from five distributions separately. Varying the threshold from 0 to 1, binary forecasts are generated by threshold. For the assessment of binary forecast models, a 2×2 contingency table is used and four skill scores (Heidke skill score, hit rate, true skill statistic,and threat score) are compared for each forecast pattern. As a result, guidance on the choice of skill score to find the optimal threshold is proposed.

  12. Advanced Nuclear Fuel Cycle Transitions: Optimization, Modeling Choices, and Disruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlsen, Robert W.

    Many nuclear fuel cycle simulators have evolved over time to help understan the nuclear industry/ecosystem at a macroscopic level. Cyclus is one of th first fuel cycle simulators to accommodate larger-scale analysis with it liberal open-source licensing and first-class Linux support. Cyclus also ha features that uniquely enable investigating the effects of modeling choices o fuel cycle simulators and scenarios. This work is divided into thre experiments focusing on optimization, effects of modeling choices, and fue cycle uncertainty. Effective optimization techniques are developed for automatically determinin desirable facility deployment schedules with Cyclus. A novel method fo mapping optimization variables to deployment schedules is developed. Thi allows relationships between reactor types and scenario constraints to b represented implicitly in the variable definitions enabling the usage o optimizers lacking constraint support. It also prevents wasting computationa resources evaluating infeasible deployment schedules. Deployed power capacit over time and deployment of non-reactor facilities are also included a optimization variables There are many fuel cycle simulators built with different combinations o modeling choices. Comparing results between them is often difficult. Cyclus flexibility allows comparing effects of many such modeling choices. Reacto refueling cycle synchronization and inter-facility competition among othe effects are compared in four cases each using combinations of fleet of individually modeled reactors with 1-month or 3-month time steps. There are noticeable differences in results for the different cases. The larges differences occur during periods of constrained reactor fuel availability This and similar work can help improve the quality of fuel cycle analysi generally There is significant uncertainty associated deploying new nuclear technologie such as time-frames for technology availability and the cost of buildin advanced reactors

  13. Towards Analytical Modeling for Persuasive Design Choices in Mobile Apps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Mukhtar

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Persuasive technology has emerged as a new field of research in the past decade with its applications in various domains including web-designing, human-computer interaction, healthcare systems, and social networks. Although persuasive technology has its roots in psychology and cognitive sciences, researchers from the computing disciplines are also increasingly interested in it. Unfortunately, the existing theories, models, and frameworks for persuasive system design fall short due to absence of systematic design processes mostly used in the computing domains as well as lack of support for appropriate post-analysis. This work provides some insight into such limitations and identifies the importance of analytical modeling for persuasion in mobile applications design. The authors illustrate, using a case study, that appropriate mathematical models can be applied together with user modeling to develop a persuasive system that will allow the designer to consider several design choices simultaneously.

  14. A family of models for Schelling binary choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavalli, Fausto; Naimzada, Ahmad; Pireddu, Marina

    2016-02-01

    We introduce and study a family of discrete-time dynamical systems to model binary choices based on the framework proposed by Schelling in 1973. The model we propose uses a gradient-like adjustment mechanism by means of a family of smooth maps and allows understanding and analytically studying the phenomena qualitatively described by Schelling. In particular, we investigate existence of steady states and their relation to the equilibria of the static model studied by Schelling, and we analyze local stability, linking several examples and considerations provided by Schelling with bifurcation theory. We provide examples to confirm the theoretical results and to numerically investigate the possible destabilizations, as well as the emergence of coexisting attractors. We show the existence of chaos for a particular example.

  15. Performance and Prediction: Bayesian Modelling of Fallible Choice in Chess

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haworth, Guy; Regan, Ken; di Fatta, Giuseppe

    Evaluating agents in decision-making applications requires assessing their skill and predicting their behaviour. Both are well developed in Poker-like situations, but less so in more complex game and model domains. This paper addresses both tasks by using Bayesian inference in a benchmark space of reference agents. The concepts are explained and demonstrated using the game of chess but the model applies generically to any domain with quantifiable options and fallible choice. Demonstration applications address questions frequently asked by the chess community regarding the stability of the rating scale, the comparison of players of different eras and/or leagues, and controversial incidents possibly involving fraud. The last include alleged under-performance, fabrication of tournament results, and clandestine use of computer advice during competition. Beyond the model world of games, the aim is to improve fallible human performance in complex, high-value tasks.

  16. A model of interacting multiple choices of continuous opinions

    CERN Document Server

    Chou, C -I

    2016-01-01

    We present a model of interacting multiple choices of opinions. At each step of the process, a listener is persuaded by his/her neighbour, the lobbyist, to modify his/her opinion on two different choices of event. Whether or not the listener will be convinced by the lobbyist depends on the difference between his/her opinion with that of the lobbyist, and with that of the revealed social opinion (the social pressure). If the listener is convinced, he/she will modify his/her opinion and update his/her revealed preference, and proceed to persuade his/her next neighbour. If the listener is not convinced by the lobbyist, he/she will retain his/her revealed preference, and try to persuade the lobbyist to change his/her opinion. In this case, the direction of opinion propagation is reversed. A consensus is reached when all the revealed preference is the same. Our numerical results show that consensus can always be attained in this model. However, the time needed to achieve consensus, or the so-called convergence tim...

  17. The probit choice model under sequential search with an application to online retailing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bronnenberg, Bart; Kim, Jun B.; Albuquerque, P.

    2016-01-01

    We develop a probit choice model under optimal sequential search and apply it to the study of aggregate demand of consumer durable goods. In our joint model of search and choice, we derive a semi-closed form expression for the probability of choice that obeys the full set of restrictions imposed by

  18. Human Nonindependent Mate Choice: Is Model Female Attractiveness Everything?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonios Vakirtzis

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Following two decades of research on non-human animals, there has recently been increased interest in human nonindependent mate choice, namely the ways in which choosing women incorporate information about a man's past or present romantic partners (‘model females’ into their own assessment of the male. Experimental studies using static facial images have generally found that men receive higher desirability ratings from female raters when presented with attractive (compared to unattractive model females. This phenomenon has a straightforward evolutionary explanation: the fact that female mate value is more dependent on physical attractiveness compared to male mate value. Furthermore, due to assortative mating for attractiveness, men who are paired with attractive women are more likely to be of high mate value themselves. Here, we also examine the possible relevance of model female cues other than attractiveness (personality and behavioral traits by presenting video recordings of model females to a set of female raters. The results confirm that the model female's attractiveness is the primary cue. Contrary to some earlier findings in the human and nonhuman literature, we found no evidence that female raters prefer partners of slightly older model females. We conclude by suggesting some promising variations on the present experimental design.

  19. Human nonindependent mate choice: is model female attractiveness everything?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vakirtzis, Antonios; Roberts, S Craig

    2012-05-06

    Following two decades of research on non-human animals, there has recently been increased interest in human nonindependent mate choice, namely the ways in which choosing women incorporate information about a man's past or present romantic partners ('model females') into their own assessment of the male. Experimental studies using static facial images have generally found that men receive higher desirability ratings from female raters when presented with attractive (compared to unattractive) model females. This phenomenon has a straightforward evolutionary explanation: the fact that female mate value is more dependent on physical attractiveness compared to male mate value. Furthermore, due to assortative mating for attractiveness, men who are paired with attractive women are more likely to be of high mate value themselves. Here, we also examine the possible relevance of model female cues other than attractiveness (personality and behavioral traits) by presenting video recordings of model females to a set of female raters. The results confirm that the model female's attractiveness is the primary cue. Contrary to some earlier findings in the human and nonhuman literature, we found no evidence that female raters prefer partners of slightly older model females. We conclude by suggesting some promising variations on the present experimental design.

  20. Alterations in choice behavior by manipulations of world model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, C. S.; Benson, C.; Kersten, D.; Schrater, P.

    2010-01-01

    How to compute initially unknown reward values makes up one of the key problems in reinforcement learning theory, with two basic approaches being used. Model-free algorithms rely on the accumulation of substantial amounts of experience to compute the value of actions, whereas in model-based learning, the agent seeks to learn the generative process for outcomes from which the value of actions can be predicted. Here we show that (i) “probability matching”—a consistent example of suboptimal choice behavior seen in humans—occurs in an optimal Bayesian model-based learner using a max decision rule that is initialized with ecologically plausible, but incorrect beliefs about the generative process for outcomes and (ii) human behavior can be strongly and predictably altered by the presence of cues suggestive of various generative processes, despite statistically identical outcome generation. These results suggest human decision making is rational and model based and not consistent with model-free learning. PMID:20805507

  1. ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brooker, A.; Gonder, J.; Lopp, S.; Ward, J.

    2015-05-04

    The Automotive Deployment Option Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a light-duty vehicle consumer choice and stock model supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. It estimates technology improvement impacts on U.S. light-duty vehicles sales, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas emissions. ADOPT uses techniques from the multinomial logit method and the mixed logit method estimate sales. Specifically, it estimates sales based on the weighted value of key attributes including vehicle price, fuel cost, acceleration, range and usable volume. The average importance of several attributes changes nonlinearly across its range and changes with income. For several attributes, a distribution of importance around the average value is used to represent consumer heterogeneity. The majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims are included to fully represent the market. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations are enforced. The sales feed into the ADOPT stock model. It captures key aspects for summing petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions This includes capturing the change in vehicle miles traveled by vehicle age, the creation of new model options based on the success of existing vehicles, new vehicle option introduction rate limits, and survival rates by vehicle age. ADOPT has been extensively validated with historical sales data. It matches in key dimensions including sales by fuel economy, acceleration, price, vehicle size class, and powertrain across multiple years. A graphical user interface provides easy and efficient use. It manages the inputs, simulation, and results.

  2. Joint Residence-Workplace Location Choice Model Based on Household Decision Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengpeng Jiao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Residence location and workplace are the two most important urban land-use types, and there exist strong interdependences between them. Existing researches often assume that one choice dimension is correlated to the other. Using the mixed logit framework, three groups of choice models are developed to illustrate such choice dependencies. First, for all households, this paper presents a basic methodology of the residence location and workplace choice without decision sequence based on the assumption that the two choice behaviors are independent of each other. Second, the paper clusters all households into two groups, choosing residence or workplace first, and formulates the residence location and workplace choice models under the constraint of decision sequence. Third, this paper combines the residence location and workplace together as the choice alternative and puts forward the joint choice model. A questionnaire survey is implemented in Beijing city to collect the data of 1994 households. Estimation results indicate that the joint choice model fits the data significantly better, and the elasticity effects analyses show that the joint choice model reflects the influences of relevant factors to the choice probability well and leads to the job-housing balance.

  3. Bayesian methods for model choice and propagation of model uncertainty in groundwater transport modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendes, B. S.; Draper, D.

    2008-12-01

    The issue of model uncertainty and model choice is central in any groundwater modeling effort [Neuman and Wierenga, 2003]; among the several approaches to the problem we favour using Bayesian statistics because it is a method that integrates in a natural way uncertainties (arising from any source) and experimental data. In this work, we experiment with several Bayesian approaches to model choice, focusing primarily on demonstrating the usefulness of the Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) simulation method [Green, 1995]; this is an extension of the now- common MCMC methods. Standard MCMC techniques approximate posterior distributions for quantities of interest, often by creating a random walk in parameter space; RJMCMC allows the random walk to take place between parameter spaces with different dimensionalities. This fact allows us to explore state spaces that are associated with different deterministic models for experimental data. Our work is exploratory in nature; we restrict our study to comparing two simple transport models applied to a data set gathered to estimate the breakthrough curve for a tracer compound in groundwater. One model has a mean surface based on a simple advection dispersion differential equation; the second model's mean surface is also governed by a differential equation but in two dimensions. We focus on artificial data sets (in which truth is known) to see if model identification is done correctly, but we also address the issues of over and under-paramerization, and we compare RJMCMC's performance with other traditional methods for model selection and propagation of model uncertainty, including Bayesian model averaging, BIC and DIC.References Neuman and Wierenga (2003). A Comprehensive Strategy of Hydrogeologic Modeling and Uncertainty Analysis for Nuclear Facilities and Sites. NUREG/CR-6805, Division of Systems Analysis and Regulatory Effectiveness Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

  4. Agent-based modelling of consumer energy choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, Varun; Henry, Adam Douglas

    2016-06-01

    Strategies to mitigate global climate change should be grounded in a rigorous understanding of energy systems, particularly the factors that drive energy demand. Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a powerful tool for representing the complexities of energy demand, such as social interactions and spatial constraints. Unlike other approaches for modelling energy demand, ABM is not limited to studying perfectly rational agents or to abstracting micro details into system-level equations. Instead, ABM provides the ability to represent behaviours of energy consumers -- such as individual households -- using a range of theories, and to examine how the interaction of heterogeneous agents at the micro-level produces macro outcomes of importance to the global climate, such as the adoption of low-carbon behaviours and technologies over space and time. We provide an overview of ABM work in the area of consumer energy choices, with a focus on identifying specific ways in which ABM can improve understanding of both fundamental scientific and applied aspects of the demand side of energy to aid the design of better policies and programmes. Future research needs for improving the practice of ABM to better understand energy demand are also discussed.

  5. The Effects of Land Use Patterns on Tour Type Choice. The Application of a Hybrid Choice Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Abreu e Silva, João; Sottile, Eleonora; Cherchi, Elisabetta

    2014-01-01

    to travel. Workers who reside in more central, mixed and traditional urban spaces tend to have a higher propensity to travel. Workers who live in more diverse areas have a higher probability of engaging in more complex work related tours. Working in more suburban areas reduces the probability of engaging......The relations between travel behavior and land use patterns have been the object of intensive research in the last two decades. Due to their immediate policy implications, mode choice and vehicle miles of travel (VMT) have been the main focus of attention. Other relevant dimensions, like trip...... of the latent propensity to travel in the discrete choice among types of tours. This model is applied to a travel diary of workers collected in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area in 2009. Different model specifications were built, testing the inclusion of purportedly built land use factors, which have the advantage...

  6. Estimating Route Choice Models from Stochastically Generated Choice Sets on Large-Scale Networks Correcting for Unequal Sampling Probability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vacca, Alessandro; Prato, Carlo Giacomo; Meloni, Italo

    2015-01-01

    is the dependency of the parameter estimates from the choice set generation technique. Bias introduced in model estimation has been corrected only for the random walk algorithm, which has problematic applicability to large-scale networks. This study proposes a correction term for the sampling probability of routes...... extracted with stochastic route generation. The term is easily applicable to large-scale networks and various environments, given its dependence only on a random number generator and the Dijkstra shortest path algorithm. The implementation for revealed preferences data, which consist of actual route choices...... collected in Cagliari, Italy, shows the feasibility of generating routes stochastically in a high-resolution network and calculating the correction factor. The model estimation with and without correction illustrates how the correction not only improves the goodness of fit but also turns illogical signs...

  7. MODELLING CONSUMER CHOICE IN THE MARKET SWITCHBOARD EQUIPMENT USING IBM SPSS STATISTICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey V. Mkhitaryan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Modelling consumer choice in the marketswitch equipment will allow manufacturing enterprises to improve the efficiencyof design and marketing activities byreducing the financial and human losses associated with pre-treatment orders. Todevelop a model of consumer choice canbe used logistic regression.

  8. Departure time choice: Modelling individual preferences, intention and constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorhauge, Mikkel

    whether they are constrained. The thesis also provides empirical evidences of the policy implication of not accounting for other activities and their constraints. Thirdly, the thesis shows that the departure time choice can be partly explained by psychological factors, which have previously been neglected...... to change their departure time rather than changing their transport mode to avoid congestion (Hendrickson and Planke, 1984; SACTRA, 1994; Kroes et al., 1996; Hess et al., 2007a). Hence, understanding the departure time choice from an individual perspective is important to develop policies aimed to address...... (Ajzen, 1991), in which Intention act as a mediator between the underlying latent factors (attitude, norms, and perception). It was found that the psychological factors not only influenced the choice but also individual preferences....

  9. Multimodal route choice models of public transport passengers in the Greater Copenhagen Area

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anderson, Marie Karen; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2014-01-01

    ,641 public transport users in the Greater Copenhagen Area.A two-stage approach consisting of choice set generation and route choice model estimation allowed uncovering the preferences of the users of this multimodal large-scale public transport network. The results illustrate the rates of substitution...... of their inherent complexity and challenges. In particular, choice set generation and modeling route choice behavior while accounting for similarity across alternatives and heterogeneity across travelers are non-trivial challenges. This paper tackles these challenges by focusing on the revealed preferences of 5...

  10. Consumer choice models on the effect of promotions in retailing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guyt, Jonne

    2015-01-01

    This doctoral thesis contains three empirical essays regarding the effect of promotions on consumer choices in a retailing context. The first essay studies the scheduling of featured price cuts for national brands, across retail chains. It shows that coordinating promotions across chains influences

  11. Fund choice behavior and estimation of switching models: an experiment*

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anufriev, M.; Bao, T.; Tuinstra, J.

    2013-01-01

    We run a laboratory experiment that contributes to the finance literature on "return chasing behavior" studying how investors switch between mutual funds driven by past performance of the funds. The subjects in this experiment make discrete choices between several (2, 3 or 4) experimental funds in m

  12. Modeling brand choice using boosted and stacked neural networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Potharst (Rob); M. van Rijthoven; M.C. van Wezel (Michiel)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThe brand choice problem in marketing has recently been addressed with methods from computational intelligence such as neural networks. Another class of methods from computational intelligence, the so-called ensemble methods such as boosting and stacking have never been applied to the

  13. Accounting for choice of measurement scale in extreme value modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Wadsworth, J. L.; Tawn, J. A.; Jonathan, P.

    2010-01-01

    We investigate the effect that the choice of measurement scale has upon inference and extrapolation in extreme value analysis. Separate analyses of variables from a single process on scales which are linked by a nonlinear transformation may lead to discrepant conclusions concerning the tail behavior of the process. We propose the use of a Box--Cox power transformation incorporated as part of the inference procedure to account parametrically for the uncertainty surrounding the scale of extrapo...

  14. Fuzzy social choice models explaining the government formation process

    CERN Document Server

    C Casey, Peter; A Goodman, Carly; Pook, Kelly Nelson; N Mordeson, John; J Wierman, Mark; D Clark, Terry

    2014-01-01

    This book explores the extent to which fuzzy set logic can overcome some of the shortcomings of public choice theory, particularly its inability to provide adequate predictive power in empirical studies. Especially in the case of social preferences, public choice theory has failed to produce the set of alternatives from which collective choices are made.  The book presents empirical findings achieved by the authors in their efforts to predict the outcome of government formation processes in European parliamentary and semi-presidential systems.  Using data from the Comparative Manifesto Project (CMP), the authors propose a new approach that reinterprets error in the coding of CMP data as ambiguity in the actual political positions of parties on the policy dimensions being coded. The range of this error establishes parties’ fuzzy preferences. The set of possible outcomes in the process of government formation is then calculated on the basis of both the fuzzy Pareto set and the fuzzy maximal set, and the pre...

  15. Joint modeling of constrained path enumeration and path choice behavior: a semi-compensatory approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2010-01-01

    A behavioural and a modelling framework are proposed for representing route choice from a path set that satisfies travellers’ spatiotemporal constraints. Within the proposed framework, travellers’ master sets are constructed by path generation, consideration sets are delimited according to spatio...... constraints are related to travellers’ socio-economic characteristics and that path choice is related to minimizing time and avoiding congestion....

  16. Modeling the Bullying Prevention Program Preferences of Educators: A Discrete Choice Conjoint Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Charles E.; Vaillancourt, Tracy; Rimas, Heather; Deal, Ken; Cunningham, Lesley; Short, Kathy; Chen, Yvonne

    2009-01-01

    We used discrete choice conjoint analysis to model the bullying prevention program preferences of educators. Using themes from computerized decision support lab focus groups (n = 45 educators), we composed 20 three-level bullying prevention program design attributes. Each of 1,176 educators completed 25 choice tasks presenting experimentally…

  17. Do Methodological Choices in Environmental Modeling Bias Rebound Effects? : A Case Study on Electric Cars

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Font Vivanco, D.; Tukker, A.; Kemp, R.

    2016-01-01

    Improvements in resource efficiency often underperform because of rebound effects. Calculations of the size of rebound effects are subject to various types of bias, among which methodological choices have received particular attention. Modellers have primarily focused on choices related to changes i

  18. How the twain can meet: Prospect theory and models of heuristics in risky choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pachur, Thorsten; Suter, Renata S; Hertwig, Ralph

    2017-03-01

    Two influential approaches to modeling choice between risky options are algebraic models (which focus on predicting the overt decisions) and models of heuristics (which are also concerned with capturing the underlying cognitive process). Because they rest on fundamentally different assumptions and algorithms, the two approaches are usually treated as antithetical, or even incommensurable. Drawing on cumulative prospect theory (CPT; Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) as the currently most influential instance of a descriptive algebraic model, we demonstrate how the two modeling traditions can be linked. CPT's algebraic functions characterize choices in terms of psychophysical (diminishing sensitivity to probabilities and outcomes) as well as psychological (risk aversion and loss aversion) constructs. Models of heuristics characterize choices as rooted in simple information-processing principles such as lexicographic and limited search. In computer simulations, we estimated CPT's parameters for choices produced by various heuristics. The resulting CPT parameter profiles portray each of the choice-generating heuristics in psychologically meaningful ways-capturing, for instance, differences in how the heuristics process probability information. Furthermore, CPT parameters can reflect a key property of many heuristics, lexicographic search, and track the environment-dependent behavior of heuristics. Finally, we show, both in an empirical and a model recovery study, how CPT parameter profiles can be used to detect the operation of heuristics. We also address the limits of CPT's ability to capture choices produced by heuristics. Our results highlight an untapped potential of CPT as a measurement tool to characterize the information processing underlying risky choice.

  19. Choices and Changes: Eccles’ Expectancy-Value Model and Upper-Secondary School Students’ Longitudinal Reflections about their Choice of a STEM Education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-01-01

    During the past 30 years, Eccles’ comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students...... could be used to detect significant changes in the students’ educational choice processes. An important finding was that the quantitative EV-MBC surveys and the qualitative interviews gave quite different results concerning the students’ considerations about the choice of tertiary education......, and that significant changes in the students’ reflections were not captured by the factors of the EV-MBC model. This questions the validity of the EVMBC surveys. Moreover, the quantitative factors from the EV-MBC model did not sufficiently explain students’ dynamical educational choice processes where students...

  20. Understanding the formation and influence of attitudes in patients' treatment choices for lower back pain: Testing the benefits of a hybrid choice model approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kløjgaard, Mirja Elisabeth; Hess, S.

    2014-01-01

    A growing number of studies across different fields are making use of a new class of choice models, labelled variably as hybrid model structures or integrated choice and latent variable models, and incorporating the role of attitudes in decision making. To date, this technique has not been used...... in health economics. The present paper looks at the formation of such attitudes and their role in patients treatment choices in the context of low back pain. We use stated choice data collected from a sample of 561 patients with 348 respondents referred to a regional spine centre in Middelfart, Denmark...... in spring/summer 2012. We show how the hybrid model structure is able to make a link between attitudinal questions and treatment choices, and also explains variation of these attitudes across key socio-demographic groups. However, we also show how, in this case, only a small share of the overall...

  1. Incorporating Latent Variables into Discrete Choice Models - A Simultaneous Estimation Approach Using SEM Software

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Temme

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV models represent a promising new class of models which merge classic choice models with the structural equation approach (SEM for latent variables. Despite their conceptual appeal, applications of ICLV models in marketing remain rare. We extend previous ICLV applications by first estimating a multinomial choice model and, second, by estimating hierarchical relations between latent variables. An empirical study on travel mode choice clearly demonstrates the value of ICLV models to enhance the understanding of choice processes. In addition to the usually studied directly observable variables such as travel time, we show how abstract motivations such as power and hedonism as well as attitudes such as a desire for flexibility impact on travel mode choice. Furthermore, we show that it is possible to estimate such a complex ICLV model with the widely available structural equation modeling package Mplus. This finding is likely to encourage more widespread application of this appealing model class in the marketing field.

  2. Choices and Changes: Eccles’ Expectancy-Value Model and Upper-Secondary School Students’ Longitudinal Reflections about their Choice of a STEM Education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-01-01

    in their last year in upper-secondary school concerning their choice of tertiary education were examined using quantitative EV-MBC surveys and repeated qualitative interviews. This article presents the analyses of three cases in detail. The analytical focus was whether the factors indicated in the EV-MBC model......During the past 30 years, Eccles’ comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students...... could be used to detect significant changes in the students’ educational choice processes. An important finding was that the quantitative EV-MBC surveys and the qualitative interviews gave quite different results concerning the students’ considerations about the choice of tertiary education...

  3. Choices and changes: Eccles' Expectancy-Value model and upper-secondary school students' longitudinal reflections about their choice of a STEM education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-03-01

    During the past 30 years, Eccles' comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students in their last year in upper-secondary school concerning their choice of tertiary education were examined using quantitative EV-MBC surveys and repeated qualitative interviews. This article presents the analyses of three cases in detail. The analytical focus was whether the factors indicated in the EV-MBC model could be used to detect significant changes in the students' educational choice processes. An important finding was that the quantitative EV-MBC surveys and the qualitative interviews gave quite different results concerning the students' considerations about the choice of tertiary education, and that significant changes in the students' reflections were not captured by the factors of the EV-MBC model. This questions the validity of the EV-MBC surveys. Moreover, the quantitative factors from the EV-MBC model did not sufficiently explain students' dynamical educational choice processes where students in parallel considered several different potential educational trajectories. We therefore call for further studies of the EV-MBC model's use in describing longitudinal choice processes and especially in investigating significant changes.

  4. A conceptual model for determining career choice of CHROME alumna based on farmer's conceptual models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Lisa Simmons

    This qualitative program evaluation examines the career decision-making processes and career choices of nine, African American women who participated in the Cooperating Hampton Roads Organization for Minorities in Engineering (CHROME) and who graduated from urban, rural or suburban high schools in the year 2000. The CHROME program is a nonprofit, pre-college intervention program that encourages underrepresented minority and female students to enter science, technically related, engineering, and math (STEM) career fields. The study describes career choices and decisions made by each participant over a five-year period since high school graduation. Data was collected through an Annual Report, Post High School Questionnaires, Environmental Support Questionnaires, Career Choice Questionnaires, Senior Reports, and standardized open-ended interviews. Data was analyzed using a model based on Helen C. Farmer's Conceptual Models, John Ogbu's Caste Theory and Feminist Theory. The CHROME program, based on its stated goals and tenets, was also analyzed against study findings. Findings indicated that participants received very low levels of support from counselors and teachers to pursue STEM careers and high levels of support from parents and family, the CHROME program and financial backing. Findings of this study also indicated that the majority of CHROME alumna persisted in STEM careers. The most successful participants, in terms of undergraduate degree completion and occupational prestige, were the African American women who remained single, experienced no critical incidents, came from a middle class to upper middle class socioeconomic background, and did not have children.

  5. Partner choice promotes cooperation: the two faces of testing with agent-based models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campennì, Marco; Schino, Gabriele

    2014-03-07

    Reciprocity is one of the most debated among the mechanisms that have been proposed to explain the evolution of cooperation. While a distinction can be made between two general processes that can underlie reciprocation (within-pair temporal relations between cooperative events, and partner choice based on benefits received), theoretical modelling has concentrated on the former, while the latter has been often neglected. We developed a set of agent-based models in which agents adopted a strategy of obligate cooperation and partner choice based on benefits received. Our models tested the ability of partner choice both to reproduce significant emergent features of cooperation in group living animals and to promote the evolution of cooperation. Populations formed by agents adopting a strategy of obligate cooperation and partner choice based on benefits received showed differentiated "social relationships" and a positive correlation between cooperation given and received, two common phenomena in animal cooperation. When selection across multiple generations was added to the model, agents adopting a strategy of partner choice based on benefits received outperformed selfish agents that did not cooperate. Our results suggest partner choice is a significant aspect of cooperation and provides a possible mechanism for its evolution.

  6. Biostereometric Data Processing In ERGODATA: Choice Of Human Body Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pineau, J. C.; Mollard, R.; Sauvignon, M.; Amphoux, M.

    1983-07-01

    The definition of human body models was elaborated with anthropometric data from ERGODATA. The first model reduces the human body into a series of points and lines. The second model is well adapted to represent volumes of each segmentary element. The third is an original model built from the conventional anatomical points. Each segment is defined in space by a tri-angular plane located with its 3-D coordinates. This new model can answer all the processing possibilities in the field of computer-aided design (C.A.D.) in ergonomy but also biomechanics and orthopaedics.

  7. How urban environment affects travel behavior? Integrated Choice and Latent Variable Model for Travel Schedules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    La Paix, Lissy; Bierlaire, Michel; Cherchi, Elisabetta

    2013-01-01

    The relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour is not a new problem. Neighbourhood characteristics may affect mobility of dwellers in different ways, such as frequency of trips, mode used, structure of the tours, and so on. At the same time, qualitative issues related...... to the individual attitude towards specific behaviour have recently become important in transport modelling contributing to a better understanding of travel demand. Following this research line, in this paper we study the effect of neighbourhood characteristics in the choice of the type of tours performed, but we...... assume that neighbourhood characteristics can also affect the individual propensity to travel and hence the choice of the tours throughout the propensity to travel. Since the propensity to travel is not observed, we employ hybrid choice models to estimate jointly the discrete choice of tours...

  8. Airport Choice in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: An Application of the Conditional Logit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, Marcelo Baena; Muller, Carlos

    2003-01-01

    Using the conditional LOGIT model, this paper addresses the airport choice in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area. In this region, Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) and Congonhas Airport (CGH) compete for passengers flying to several domestic destinations. The airport choice is believed to be a result of the tradeoff passengers perform considering airport access characteristics, airline level of service characteristics and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. It was found that access time to the airports better explain the airport choice than access distance, whereas direct flight frequencies gives better explanation to the airport choice than the indirect (connections and stops) and total (direct plus indirect) flight frequencies. Out of 15 tested variables, passenger experience with the analyzed airports was the variable that best explained the airport choice in the region. Model specifications considering 1, 2 or 3 variables were tested. The model specification most adjusted to the observed data considered access time, direct flight frequencies in the travel period (morning or afternoon peak) and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. The influence of these variables was therefore analyzed across market segments according to departure airport and flight duration criteria. The choice of GRU (located neighboring Sao Paulo city) is not well explained by the rationality of access time economy and the increase of the supply of direct flight frequencies, while the choice of CGH (located inside Sao Paulo city) is. Access time was found to be more important to passengers flying shorter distances while direct flight frequencies in the travel period were more significant to those flying longer distances. Keywords: Airport choice, Multiple airport region, Conditional LOGIT model, Access time, Flight frequencies, Passenger experience with the analyzed airports, Transportation planning

  9. Memory-Based Simple Heuristics as Attribute Substitution: Competitive Tests of Binary Choice Inference Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honda, Hidehito; Matsuka, Toshihiko; Ueda, Kazuhiro

    2016-07-20

    Some researchers on binary choice inference have argued that people make inferences based on simple heuristics, such as recognition, fluency, or familiarity. Others have argued that people make inferences based on available knowledge. To examine the boundary between heuristic and knowledge usage, we examine binary choice inference processes in terms of attribute substitution in heuristic use (Kahneman & Frederick, 2005). In this framework, it is predicted that people will rely on heuristic or knowledge-based inference depending on the subjective difficulty of the inference task. We conducted competitive tests of binary choice inference models representing simple heuristics (fluency and familiarity heuristics) and knowledge-based inference models. We found that a simple heuristic model (especially a familiarity heuristic model) explained inference patterns for subjectively difficult inference tasks, and that a knowledge-based inference model explained subjectively easy inference tasks. These results were consistent with the predictions of the attribute substitution framework. Issues on usage of simple heuristics and psychological processes are discussed.

  10. Do Methodological Choices in Environmental Modeling Bias Rebound Effects? A Case Study on Electric Cars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Font Vivanco, David; Tukker, Arnold; Kemp, René

    2016-10-18

    Improvements in resource efficiency often underperform because of rebound effects. Calculations of the size of rebound effects are subject to various types of bias, among which methodological choices have received particular attention. Modellers have primarily focused on choices related to changes in demand, however, choices related to modeling the environmental burdens from such changes have received less attention. In this study, we analyze choices in the environmental assessment methods (life cycle assessment (LCA) and hybrid LCA) and environmental input-output databases (E3IOT, Exiobase and WIOD) used as a source of bias. The analysis is done for a case study on battery electric and hydrogen cars in Europe. The results describe moderate rebound effects for both technologies in the short term. Additionally, long-run scenarios are calculated by simulating the total cost of ownership, which describe notable rebound effect sizes-from 26 to 59% and from 18 to 28%, respectively, depending on the methodological choices-with favorable economic conditions. Relevant sources of bias are found to be related to incomplete background systems, technology assumptions and sectorial aggregation. These findings highlight the importance of the method setup and of sensitivity analyses of choices related to environmental modeling in rebound effect assessments.

  11. MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF PREFERED SOLUTIONS CHOICE FUNCTION FOR TUBULAR GAS HEATERS BY EXPERIMENTAL INFORMATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BARSUK R. V.

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Annotation. Problems formulation. The article deals with choice functions building of preferred solutions by experimental information for tubular gas heater working on fuel granules - pellets.Further choice functions using for making technical solutions by tubular gas heaters construction and designing. Recently research analysis. There are works about choice functions construction by separate presents are examined. But full chose functions building by separate presents are not examined. Aims and tasks. There are setting aim to develop full choice functions mathematical model on separate presents by authors. The expert are connect to primary experimental data’s evaluation that estimates separate results by output functions (criteria. Its evaluations issue in experimental points paired comparison’s table form. Thus, there are necessary construct binary choice relations presents on experimental “points” set by expert that then using for full choice function’s constructing. Conclusions. There are choice function’s construction’s sequence are sets. There are posed point comparison results that characterized tubular gas heater’s condition with expert’s evaluation using. Also posed output functions comparisons by which can be characterized improving tubular gas heater’s performance or vice versa.

  12. Evaluating choices in multi-process landscape evolution models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Temme, A.J.A.M.; Claessens, L.; Veldkamp, A.; Schoorl, J.M.

    2011-01-01

    The interest in landscape evolution models (LEMs) that simulate multiple landscape processes is growing. However, modelling multiple processes constitutes a new starting point for which some aspects of the set up of LEMs must be re-evaluated. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the practic

  13. Modelling travel time perception in transport mode choices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Varotto, S.F.; Glerum, A.; Stathopoulos, A.; Bierlaire, M.; Longo, G.

    2015-01-01

    Travel behaviour models typically rely on data afflicted by errors, in perception (e.g., over/under-estimation by traveller) and measurement (e.g., software or researcher imputation error). Such errors are shown to have a relevant impact on model outputs. So far a comprehensive framework to deal wit

  14. A LATENT TRAIT MODEL FOR DICHOTOMOUS CHOICE DATA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    HOIJTINK, H

    1990-01-01

    The PARELLA model is a probabilistic parallelogram model that can be used for the measurement of latent attitudes or latent preferences. The data analyzed are the dichotomous responses of persons to stimuli, with a one (zero) indicating agreement (disagreement) with the content of the stimulus. The

  15. Models of Teaching: Indicators Influencing Teachers' Perception of Pedagogical Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordyke, Alison Michelle

    2011-01-01

    The models of teaching are systematic tools that allow teachers to vary their classroom pedagogical practices to meet the needs of all learners in their classroom. This study was designed to determine key factors that influence teachers' decisions when determining a model of teaching for classroom instruction and to identify how teacher training…

  16. The drift diffusion model as the choice rule in reinforcement learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Mads Lund; Frank, Michael J; Biele, Guido

    2016-12-13

    Current reinforcement-learning models often assume simplified decision processes that do not fully reflect the dynamic complexities of choice processes. Conversely, sequential-sampling models of decision making account for both choice accuracy and response time, but assume that decisions are based on static decision values. To combine these two computational models of decision making and learning, we implemented reinforcement-learning models in which the drift diffusion model describes the choice process, thereby capturing both within- and across-trial dynamics. To exemplify the utility of this approach, we quantitatively fit data from a common reinforcement-learning paradigm using hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation, and compared model variants to determine whether they could capture the effects of stimulant medication in adult patients with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The model with the best relative fit provided a good description of the learning process, choices, and response times. A parameter recovery experiment showed that the hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach enabled accurate estimation of the model parameters. The model approach described here, using simultaneous estimation of reinforcement-learning and drift diffusion model parameters, shows promise for revealing new insights into the cognitive and neural mechanisms of learning and decision making, as well as the alteration of such processes in clinical groups.

  17. Model choice considerations and information integration using analytical hierarchy process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Langenbrunner, James R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Booker, Jane M [BOOKER SCIENTIFIC; Ross, Timothy J. [UNM

    2010-10-15

    Using the theory of information-gap for decision-making under severe uncertainty, it has been shown that model output compared to experimental data contains irrevocable trade-offs between fidelity-to-data, robustness-to-uncertainty and confidence-in-prediction. We illustrate a strategy for information integration by gathering and aggregating all available data, knowledge, theory, experience, similar applications. Such integration of information becomes important when the physics is difficult to model, when observational data are sparse or difficult to measure, or both. To aggregate the available information, we take an inference perspective. Models are not rejected, nor wasted, but can be integrated into a final result. We show an example of information integration using Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), integrating theory, simulation output and experimental data. We used expert elicitation to determine weights for two models and two experimental data sets, by forming pair-wise comparisons between model output and experimental data. In this way we transform epistemic and/or statistical strength from one field of study into another branch of physical application. The price to pay for utilizing all available knowledge is that inferences drawn for the integrated information must be accounted for and the costs can be considerable. Focusing on inferences and inference uncertainty (IU) is one way to understand complex information.

  18. Integrating economic and psychological insights in binary choice models with social interactions

    CERN Document Server

    Ostasiewicz, K; Magnuszewski, P; Radosz, A; Sendzimir, J; Tyc, M H; Goliczewski, Piotr; Magnuszewski, Piotr; Ostasiewicz, Katarzyna; Radosz, Andrzej; Sendzimir, Jan; Tyc, Michal H.

    2006-01-01

    We investigate a class of binary choice models with social interactions. We propose a unifying perspective that integrates economic models using a utility function and psychological models using an impact function. A general approach for analyzing the equilibrium structure of these models within mean-field approximation is developed. It is shown that within a mean-field approach both the utility function and the impact function models are equivalent to threshold models. The interplay between heterogeneity and randomness in model formulation is discussed. A general framework is applied in a number of examples leading to some well-known models but also showing the possibility of more complex dynamics related to multiple equilibria. Our synthesis can provide a basis for many practical applications extending the scope of binary choice models.

  19. Decision-Tree Models of Categorization Response Times, Choice Proportions, and Typicality Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…

  20. Perceived and Implicit Ranking of Academic Journals: An Optimization Choice Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Frank Tian; Cai, Jane Z.; Pan, Yue

    2012-01-01

    A new system of ranking academic journals is proposed in this study and optimization choice model used to analyze data collected from 346 faculty members in a business discipline. The ranking model uses the aggregation of perceived, implicit sequencing of academic journals by academicians, therefore eliminating several key shortcomings of previous…

  1. A discrete choice model with social interactions : an analysis of high school teen behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooreman, Peter; Soetevent, Adriaan

    2002-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete choice model that explicitly allows for endogenous social interactions. We analyze the issues of multiple equilibria, statistical coherency, and estimation of the model by means of simulation methods. In an empirical application, we analyze a data set containing info

  2. Discrete choice modeling for the quantification of health states: the case of the EQ-5D.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stolk, E.A.; Oppe, M.; Scalone, L.; Krabbe, P.F.M.

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Probabilistic models have been developed to establish the relative merit of subjective phenomena by means of specific judgmental tasks involving discrete choices (DCs). The attractiveness of these DC models is that they are embedded in a strong theoretical measurement framework and are b

  3. Discrete choice modeling for the quantification of health states : The case of the EQ-5D

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stolk, Elly A; Oppe, Mark; Scalone, Luciana; Krabbe, Paul F M

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Probabilistic models have been developed to establish the relative merit of subjective phenomena by means of specific judgmental tasks involving discrete choices (DCs). The attractiveness of these DC models is that they are embedded in a strong theoretical measurement framework and are b

  4. A Stochastic Route Choice Model for Car Travellers in the Copenhagen Region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Otto Anker; Frederiksen, Rasmus Dyhr; Daly, A.

    2002-01-01

    The paper presents a large-scale stochastic road traffic assignment model for the Copenhagen Region. The model considers several classes of passenger cars (different trip purposes), vans and trucks, each with its own utility function on which route choices are based. The utility functions include...

  5. The effects of Georgia's Choice curricular reform model on third grade science scores on the Georgia Criterion Referenced Competency Test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phemister, Art W.

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the Georgia's Choice reading curriculum on third grade science scores on the Georgia Criterion Referenced Competency Test from 2002 to 2008. In assessing the effectiveness of the Georgia's Choice curriculum model this causal comparative study examined the 105 elementary schools that implemented Georgia's Choice and 105 randomly selected elementary schools that did not elect to use Georgia's Choice. The Georgia's Choice reading program used intensified instruction in an effort to increase reading levels for all students. The study used a non-equivalent control group with a pretest and posttest design to determine the effectiveness of the Georgia's Choice curriculum model. Findings indicated that third grade students in Non-Georgia's Choice schools outscored third grade students in Georgia's Choice schools across the span of the study.

  6. A Maximum Entropy Fixed-Point Route Choice Model for Route Correlation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louis de Grange

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present a stochastic route choice model for transit networks that explicitly addresses route correlation due to overlapping alternatives. The model is based on a multi-objective mathematical programming problem, the optimality conditions of which generate an extension to the Multinomial Logit models. The proposed model considers a fixed point problem for treating correlations between routes, which can be solved iteratively. We estimated the new model on the Santiago (Chile Metro network and compared the results with other route choice models that can be found in the literature. The new model has better explanatory and predictive power that many other alternative models, correctly capturing the correlation factor. Our methodology can be extended to private transport networks.

  7. Modeling anger and aggressive driving behavior in a dynamic choice-latent variable model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danaf, Mazen; Abou-Zeid, Maya; Kaysi, Isam

    2015-02-01

    This paper develops a hybrid choice-latent variable model combined with a Hidden Markov model in order to analyze the causes of aggressive driving and forecast its manifestations accordingly. The model is grounded in the state-trait anger theory; it treats trait driving anger as a latent variable that is expressed as a function of individual characteristics, or as an agent effect, and state anger as a dynamic latent variable that evolves over time and affects driving behavior, and that is expressed as a function of trait anger, frustrating events, and contextual variables (e.g., geometric roadway features, flow conditions, etc.). This model may be used in order to test measures aimed at reducing aggressive driving behavior and improving road safety, and can be incorporated into micro-simulation packages to represent aggressive driving. The paper also presents an application of this model to data obtained from a driving simulator experiment performed at the American University of Beirut. The results derived from this application indicate that state anger at a specific time period is significantly affected by the occurrence of frustrating events, trait anger, and the anger experienced at the previous time period. The proposed model exhibited a better goodness of fit compared to a similar simple joint model where driving behavior and decisions are expressed as a function of the experienced events explicitly and not the dynamic latent variable.

  8. Removing Specification Errors from the Usual Formulation of Binary Choice Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.A.V.B. Swamy

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available We develop a procedure for removing four major specification errors from the usual formulation of binary choice models. The model that results from this procedure is different from the conventional probit and logit models. This difference arises as a direct consequence of our relaxation of the usual assumption that omitted regressors constituting the error term of a latent linear regression model do not introduce omitted regressor biases into the coefficients of the included regressors.

  9. Fitting a Thurstonian IRT model to forced-choice data using Mplus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Anna; Maydeu-Olivares, Alberto

    2012-12-01

    To counter response distortions associated with the use of rating scales (a.k.a. Likert scales), items can be presented in a comparative fashion, so that respondents are asked to rank the items within blocks (forced-choice format). However, classical scoring procedures for these forced-choice designs lead to ipsative data, which presents psychometric challenges that are well described in the literature. Recently, Brown and Maydeu-Olivares (Educational and Psychological Measurement 71: 460-502, 2011a) introduced a model based on Thurstone's law of comparative judgment, which overcomes the problems of ipsative data. Here, we provide a step-by-step tutorial for coding forced-choice responses, specifying a Thurstonian item response theory model that is appropriate for the design used, assessing the model's fit, and scoring individuals on psychological attributes. Estimation and scoring is performed using Mplus, and a very straightforward Excel macro is provided that writes full Mplus input files for any forced-choice design. Armed with these tools, using a forced-choice design is now as easy as using ratings.

  10. Approximate group context tree: applications to dynamic programming and dynamic choice models

    CERN Document Server

    Belloni, Alexandre

    2011-01-01

    The paper considers a variable length Markov chain model associated with a group of stationary processes that share the same context tree but potentially different conditional probabilities. We propose a new model selection and estimation method, develop oracle inequalities and model selection properties for the estimator. These results also provide conditions under which the use of the group structure can lead to improvements in the overall estimation. Our work is also motivated by two methodological applications: discrete stochastic dynamic programming and dynamic discrete choice models. We analyze the uniform estimation of the value function for dynamic programming and the uniform estimation of average dynamic marginal effects for dynamic discrete choice models accounting for possible imperfect model selection. We also derive the typical behavior of our estimator when applied to polynomially $\\beta$-mixing stochastic processes. For parametric models, we derive uniform rate of convergence for the estimation...

  11. An integrated model of choices and response times in absolute identification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Scott D; Marley, A A J; Donkin, Christopher; Heathcote, Andrew

    2008-04-01

    Recent theoretical developments in the field of absolute identification have stressed differences between relative and absolute processes, that is, whether stimulus magnitudes are judged relative to a shorter term context provided by recently presented stimuli or a longer term context provided by the entire set of stimuli. The authors developed a model (SAMBA: selective attention, mapping, and ballistic accumulation) that integrates shorter and longer term memory processes and accounts for both the choices made and the associated response time distributions, including sequential effects in each. The model's predictions arise as a consequence of its architecture and require estimation of only a few parameters with values that are consistent across numerous data sets. The authors show that SAMBA provides a quantitative account of benchmark choice phenomena in classical absolute identification experiments and in contemporary data involving both choice and response time.

  12. An alternative approach for choice models in transportation: Use of possibility theory for comparison of utilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dell’orco Mauro

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Modeling of human choice mechanism has been a topic of intense discussion in the transportation community for many years. The framework of modeling has been rooted in probability theory in which the analyst’s uncertainty about the integrity of the model is expressed in probability. In most choice situations, the decision-maker (traveler also experiences uncertainty because of the lack of complete information on the choices. In the traditional modeling framework, the uncertainty of the analyst and that of the decision-maker are both embedded in the same random term and not clearly separated. While the analyst's uncertainty may be represented by probability due to the statistical nature of events, that of the decision maker, however, is not always subjected to randomness; rather, it is the perceptive uncertainty. This paper proposes a modeling framework that attempts to account for the decision maker’s uncertainty by possibility theory and then the analyst's uncertainty by probability theory. The possibility to probability transformation is performed using the principle of uncertainty invariance. The proposed approach accounts for the quality of information on the changes in choice probability. The paper discusses the thought process, mathematics of possibility theory and probability transformation, and examples.

  13. Nonlinear Calibration Model Choice between the Four and Five Parameter Logistic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cumberland, William N.; Fong, Youyi; Yu, Xuesong; Defawe, Olivier; Frahm, Nicole; De Rosa, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    Both the four-parameter logistic (4PL) and the five-parameter logistic (5PL) models are widely used in nonlinear calibration. In this paper, we study the choice between 5PL and 4PL both by the accuracy and precision of the estimated concentrations and by the power to detect an association between a binary disease outcome and the estimated concentrations. Our results show that when the true curve is symmetric around its inflection point, the efficiency loss from using 5PL is negligible under the prevalent experimental design. When the true curve is asymmetric, 4PL may sometimes offer better performance due to bias-variance trade-off. We provide a practical guideline for choosing between 5PL and 4PL and illustrate its application with a real dataset from the HIV Vaccine Trials Network laboratory. PMID:24918306

  14. Using Bayesian hierarchical parameter estimation to assess the generalizability of cognitive models of choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Pachur, Thorsten

    2015-04-01

    To be useful, cognitive models with fitted parameters should show generalizability across time and allow accurate predictions of future observations. It has been proposed that hierarchical procedures yield better estimates of model parameters than do nonhierarchical, independent approaches, because the formers' estimates for individuals within a group can mutually inform each other. Here, we examine Bayesian hierarchical approaches to evaluating model generalizability in the context of two prominent models of risky choice-cumulative prospect theory (Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) and the transfer-of-attention-exchange model (Birnbaum & Chavez, 1997). Using empirical data of risky choices collected for each individual at two time points, we compared the use of hierarchical versus independent, nonhierarchical Bayesian estimation techniques to assess two aspects of model generalizability: parameter stability (across time) and predictive accuracy. The relative performance of hierarchical versus independent estimation varied across the different measures of generalizability. The hierarchical approach improved parameter stability (in terms of a lower absolute discrepancy of parameter values across time) and predictive accuracy (in terms of deviance; i.e., likelihood). With respect to test-retest correlations and posterior predictive accuracy, however, the hierarchical approach did not outperform the independent approach. Further analyses suggested that this was due to strong correlations between some parameters within both models. Such intercorrelations make it difficult to identify and interpret single parameters and can induce high degrees of shrinkage in hierarchical models. Similar findings may also occur in the context of other cognitive models of choice.

  15. A Research Brief: A Novel Characteristic of Role Model Choice by Black Male College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, B. J.; Davis, R.; Harris, A.; Brown, K.; Wood, P.; Jones, D. R.; Spencer, S.; Nelson, L.; Brown, J.; Waddell, T.; Jones, C. B.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of the present research brief is to report a novel characteristic of role model choice that may be unreported in the literature for black males and to assess this finding in relation to perceived attractiveness of self and a member of the opposite sex. The study found that the proportion of males choosing themselves as their own role…

  16. The Forced Choice Dilemma: A Model Incorporating Idiocentric/Allocentric Cultural Orientation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Jae Yup; McCormick, John; Gross, Miraca U. M.

    2012-01-01

    This study developed and tested a new model of the forced choice dilemma (i.e., the belief held by some intellectually gifted students that they must choose between academic achievement and peer acceptance) that incorporates individual-level cultural orientation variables (i.e., vertical allocentrism and vertical idiocentrism). A survey that had…

  17. Stochastic user equilibrium with equilibrated choice sets: Part I - Model formulations under alternative distributions and restrictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Watling, David Paul; Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    the advantages of the two principles, namely the definition of unused routes in DUE and of mis-perception in SUE, such that the resulting choice sets of used routes are equilibrated. Two model families are formulated to address this issue: the first is a general version of SUE permitting bounded and discrete...

  18. Generalized behavioral framework for choice models of social influence: Behavioral and data concerns in travel behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maness, M.; Cirillo, C.; Dugundji, E.R.

    2015-01-01

    Over the past two decades, transportation has begun a shift from an individual focus to a social focus. Accordingly, discrete choice models have begun to integrate social context into its framework. Social influence, the process of having one’s behavior be affected by others, has been one approach t

  19. Probabilistic choice models in health-state valuation research : background, theories, assumptions and applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arons, Alexander M M; Krabbe, Paul F M

    2013-01-01

    Interest is rising in measuring subjective health outcomes, such as treatment outcomes that are not directly quantifiable (functional disability, symptoms, complaints, side effects and health-related quality of life). Health economists in particular have applied probabilistic choice models in the ar

  20. Probabilistic choice models in health-state valuation research: background, theories, assumptions and applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arons, A.M.M.; Krabbe, P.F.M.

    2013-01-01

    Interest is rising in measuring subjective health outcomes, such as treatment outcomes that are not directly quantifiable (functional disability, symptoms, complaints, side effects and health-related quality of life). Health economists in particular have applied probabilistic choice models in the ar

  1. A comparison of methods for representing random taste heterogeneity in discrete choice models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Hess, Stephane

    2009-01-01

    This paper reports the findings of a systematic study using Monte Carlo experiments and a real dataset aimed at comparing the performance of various ways of specifying random taste heterogeneity in a discrete choice model. Specifically, the analysis compares the performance of two recent advanced...

  2. Multiple data sets and modelling choices in a comparative LCA of disposable beverage cups

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harst, van der E.J.M.; Potting, J.; Kroeze, C.

    2014-01-01

    This study used multiple data sets and modelling choices in an environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare typical disposable beverage cups made from polystyrene (PS), polylactic acid (PLA; bioplastic) and paper lined with bioplastic (biopaper). Incineration and recycling were considered as

  3. Cognitive Diagnostic Models for Tests with Multiple-Choice and Constructed-Response Items

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Bor-Chen; Chen, Chun-Hua; Yang, Chih-Wei; Mok, Magdalena Mo Ching

    2016-01-01

    Traditionally, teachers evaluate students' abilities via their total test scores. Recently, cognitive diagnostic models (CDMs) have begun to provide information about the presence or absence of students' skills or misconceptions. Nevertheless, CDMs are typically applied to tests with multiple-choice (MC) items, which provide less diagnostic…

  4. On competition in a Stackelberg location-design model with deterministic supplier choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hendrix, E.M.T.

    2016-01-01

    We study a market situation where two firms maximize market capture by deciding on the location in the plane and investing in a competing quality against investment cost. Clients choose one of the suppliers; i.e. deterministic supplier choice. To study this situation, a game theoretic model is formu

  5. Quantum Cournot equilibrium for the Hotelling-Smithies model of product choice

    CERN Document Server

    Rahaman, Ramij; Basu, B

    2012-01-01

    This paper demonstrates the quantization of a spatial Cournot duopoly model with product choice, a two stage game focusing on non-cooperation in locations and quantities. With quantization, the players can access a continuous set of strategies, using continuous variable quantum mechanical approach. The presence of quantum entanglement in the initial state identifies a quantity equilibrium for every location pair choice with any transport cost. Also higher profit is obtained by the firms at Nash equilibrium. Adoption of quantum strategies rewards us by the existence of a larger quantum strategic space at equilibrium.

  6. Behavioural Models for Route Choice of Passengers in Multimodal Public Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anderson, Marie Karen

    The subject of this thesis is behavioural models for route choice of passengers in multimodal public transport networks. While research in sustainable transport has dedicated much attention toward the determinants of choice between car and sustainable travel options, it has devoted less attention......) to overcome technical limitations related to GPS signals not always being retrievable in tunnels that are used by metro and urban rail systems. In this PhD project, a questionnaire to collect details about the actual route choice behaviour in public transport networks was developed and tested in a full scale...... test. Afterwards the questions were added to the Danish Travel Behaviour Survey that collects daily travel diaries with a questionnaire covering activities and travel of a representative sample of the population. When the travel is by public transport modes, an additional section of the survey...

  7. Belief in the "free choice" model of homosexuality: a correlate of homophobia in registered nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackwell, Christopher W

    2007-01-01

    A great amount of social science research has supported the positive correlation between heterosexuals' belief in the free choice model of homosexuality and homophobia. Heterosexuals who believe gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender (GLBT) persons consciously choose their sexual orientation and practice a lifestyle conducive to that choice are much more likely to possess discriminatory, homophobic, homonegative, and heterosexist beliefs. In addition, these individuals are less likely to support gay rights initiatives such as nondiscrimination policies or same-sex partner benefits in the workplace or hate crime enhancement legislation inclusive of GLBT persons. Although researchers have demonstrated this phenomenon in the general population, none have specifically assessed it in the nursing workforce. The purpose of this study was to examine registered nurses' overall levels of homophobia and attitudes toward a workplace policy protective of gays and lesbians. These variables were then correlated with belief in the free choice model of homosexuality. Results indicated that belief in the free choice model of homosexuality was the strongest predictor of homophobia in nurses. Implications for nursing leadership and management, nursing education, and future research are discussed.

  8. DERIVED DEMAND ELASTICITIES: MARKETING MARGIN METHODS VERSUS AN INVERSE DEMAND MODEL FOR CHOICE BEEF

    OpenAIRE

    Marsh, John M.

    1991-01-01

    Three methods of calculating the derived elasticity of demand for Choice slaughter beef are used: (a) a traditional marketing margin approach, (b) a modified marketing margin approach, and (c) an econometric, inverse demand model approach. The first method is more restrictive than the second but both tend to overestimate beef price flexibility and revenue changes. The econometric model, though an incomplete demand system, yields demand elasticities that are more consistent with marketing flex...

  9. Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models in Continuous Time with an Application to Retail Competition

    OpenAIRE

    Peter Arcidiacono; Patrick Bayer; Jason R. Blevins; Paul B. Ellickson

    2012-01-01

    This paper develops a dynamic model of retail competition and uses it to study the impact of the expansion of a new national competitor on the structure of urban markets. In order to accommodate substantial heterogeneity (both observed and unobserved) across agents and markets, the paper first develops a general framework for estimating and solving dynamic discrete choice models in continuous time that is computationally light and readily applicable to dynamic games. In the proposed framework...

  10. The effects of nutrition labeling on consumer food choice: a psychological experiment and computational model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helfer, Peter; Shultz, Thomas R

    2014-12-01

    The widespread availability of calorie-dense food is believed to be a contributing cause of an epidemic of obesity and associated diseases throughout the world. One possible countermeasure is to empower consumers to make healthier food choices with useful nutrition labeling. An important part of this endeavor is to determine the usability of existing and proposed labeling schemes. Here, we report an experiment on how four different labeling schemes affect the speed and nutritional value of food choices. We then apply decision field theory, a leading computational model of human decision making, to simulate the experimental results. The psychology experiment shows that quantitative, single-attribute labeling schemes have greater usability than multiattribute and binary ones, and that they remain effective under moderate time pressure. The computational model simulates these psychological results and provides explanatory insights into them. This work shows how experimental psychology and computational modeling can contribute to the evaluation and improvement of nutrition-labeling schemes.

  11. Variation in LCA results for disposable polystyrene beverage cups due to multiple data sets and modelling choices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harst, van der E.J.M.; Potting, J.

    2014-01-01

    Life Cycle Assessments (LCAs) of the same products often result in different, sometimes even contradictory outcomes. Reasons for these differences include using different data sets and deviating modelling choices. This paper purposely used different data sets and modelling choices to identify how th

  12. Modeling mode choice behavior incorporating household and individual sociodemographics and travel attributes based on rough sets theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Long; Chen, Xuewu; Wei, Ming; Wu, Jingxian; Hou, Xianyao

    2014-01-01

    Most traditional mode choice models are based on the principle of random utility maximization derived from econometric theory. Alternatively, mode choice modeling can be regarded as a pattern recognition problem reflected from the explanatory variables of determining the choices between alternatives. The paper applies the knowledge discovery technique of rough sets theory to model travel mode choices incorporating household and individual sociodemographics and travel information, and to identify the significance of each attribute. The study uses the detailed travel diary survey data of Changxing county which contains information on both household and individual travel behaviors for model estimation and evaluation. The knowledge is presented in the form of easily understood IF-THEN statements or rules which reveal how each attribute influences mode choice behavior. These rules are then used to predict travel mode choices from information held about previously unseen individuals and the classification performance is assessed. The rough sets model shows high robustness and good predictive ability. The most significant condition attributes identified to determine travel mode choices are gender, distance, household annual income, and occupation. Comparative evaluation with the MNL model also proves that the rough sets model gives superior prediction accuracy and coverage on travel mode choice modeling.

  13. Sensorimotor learning biases choice behavior: a learning neural field model for decision making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Klaes

    Full Text Available According to a prominent view of sensorimotor processing in primates, selection and specification of possible actions are not sequential operations. Rather, a decision for an action emerges from competition between different movement plans, which are specified and selected in parallel. For action choices which are based on ambiguous sensory input, the frontoparietal sensorimotor areas are considered part of the common underlying neural substrate for selection and specification of action. These areas have been shown capable of encoding alternative spatial motor goals in parallel during movement planning, and show signatures of competitive value-based selection among these goals. Since the same network is also involved in learning sensorimotor associations, competitive action selection (decision making should not only be driven by the sensory evidence and expected reward in favor of either action, but also by the subject's learning history of different sensorimotor associations. Previous computational models of competitive neural decision making used predefined associations between sensory input and corresponding motor output. Such hard-wiring does not allow modeling of how decisions are influenced by sensorimotor learning or by changing reward contingencies. We present a dynamic neural field model which learns arbitrary sensorimotor associations with a reward-driven Hebbian learning algorithm. We show that the model accurately simulates the dynamics of action selection with different reward contingencies, as observed in monkey cortical recordings, and that it correctly predicted the pattern of choice errors in a control experiment. With our adaptive model we demonstrate how network plasticity, which is required for association learning and adaptation to new reward contingencies, can influence choice behavior. The field model provides an integrated and dynamic account for the operations of sensorimotor integration, working memory and action

  14. The Lognormal Race: A Cognitive-Process Model of Choice and Latency with Desirable Psychometric Properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouder, Jeffrey N; Province, Jordan M; Morey, Richard D; Gomez, Pablo; Heathcote, Andrew

    2015-06-01

    We present a cognitive process model of response choice and response time performance data that has excellent psychometric properties and may be used in a wide variety of contexts. In the model there is an accumulator associated with each response option. These accumulators have bounds, and the first accumulator to reach its bound determines the response time and response choice. The times at which accumulator reaches its bound is assumed to be lognormally distributed, hence the model is race or minima process among lognormal variables. A key property of the model is that it is relatively straightforward to place a wide variety of models on the logarithm of these finishing times including linear models, structural equation models, autoregressive models, growth-curve models, etc. Consequently, the model has excellent statistical and psychometric properties and can be used in a wide range of contexts, from laboratory experiments to high-stakes testing, to assess performance. We provide a Bayesian hierarchical analysis of the model, and illustrate its flexibility with an application in testing and one in lexical decision making, a reading skill.

  15. A Joint Specification Test for Response Probabilities in Unordered Multinomial Choice Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masamune Iwasawa

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Estimation results obtained by parametric models may be seriously misleading when the model is misspecified or poorly approximates the true model. This study proposes a test that jointly tests the specifications of multiple response probabilities in unordered multinomial choice models. The test statistic is asymptotically chi-square distributed, consistent against a fixed alternative and able to detect a local alternative approaching to the null at a rate slower than the parametric rate. We show that rejection regions can be calculated by a simple parametric bootstrap procedure, when the sample size is small. The size and power of the tests are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments.

  16. The application of the random regret minimization model to drivers’ choice of crash avoidance maneuvers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    This study explores the plausibility of regret minimization as behavioral paradigm underlying the choice of crash avoidance maneuvers. Alternatively to previous studies that considered utility maximization, this study applies the random regret minimization (RRM) model while assuming that drivers...... seek to minimize their anticipated regret from their corrective actions. The model accounts for driver attributes and behavior, critical events that made the crash imminent, vehicle and road characteristics, and environmental conditions. Analyzed data are retrieved from the General Estimates System......-based model, suggesting that both models should serve as a basis for evaluating crash scenarios and driver warning systems....

  17. The application of the random regret minimization model to drivers’ choice of crash avoidance maneuvers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    This study explores the plausibility of regret minimization as behavioral paradigm underlying the choice of crash avoidance maneuvers. Alternatively to previous studies that considered utility maximization, this study applies the random regret minimization (RRM) model while assuming that drivers...... seek to minimize their anticipated regret from their corrective actions. The model accounts for driver attributes and behavior, critical events that made the crash imminent, vehicle and road characteristics, and environmental conditions. Analyzed data are retrieved from the General Estimates System......-based model, suggesting that both models should serve as a basis for evaluating crash scenarios and driver warning systems....

  18. Modelling the Choices of Romanian Consumers in the Context of the Current Economic Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madalina Balau

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Consumption is a key factor of the nowadays post-industrial society, while it is a real engine ofproduction, diversity of offer and demand, and motive for innovation. On the other side, consumption can beharmful to the same society and to environment if it develops in an un-sustainable way. That is why,understanding the consumer behaviour is of great importance not only to satisfy his or her needs but also tofind appropriate means to educate people and issue policies that can lead to sustainable consumption anddevelopment. The paper presents some models and theories regarding the consumer behaviour and proposesmeans to influence consumption characteristics and habits of people. The modelling approach isdeterministic, using Expectancy-Value theory, taking into account not only explicit (rational choices but alsohabits or incentives (non-rational choices, in a weighted quantitative model. The novelty of the approachconsists in the way non-rational choices are taken into consideration for the existing model, and on how it isused in determining directions for sustainable consumption. The study is developed on public data regardingconsumers of general goods in Romania.

  19. The role of model female quality in the mate choice copying behaviour of sailfin mollies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Sarah E; Ryan, Michael J

    2006-06-22

    Female mate choice copying is a socially mediated mate choice behaviour, in which a male's attractiveness to females increases if he was previously chosen by another female as a mate. Although copying has been demonstrated in numerous species, little is known about the specific benefits it confers to copying females. Here we demonstrate that the mate choice behaviour of female sailfin mollies (Poecilia latipinna) is influenced by the phenotypic quality of model females with whom males are observed consorting. Test females choosing between two males of similar body length were found to significantly increase time spent with previously non-preferred males after having observed them with a relatively high-quality female. Conversely, females were found to significantly decrease time spent with previously preferred males after having observed them with a relatively low-quality female. Female mate choice copying might be maintained by selection based on the heuristic value it provides females choosing between males whose quality differences are not easily distinguishable.

  20. DYNAMIC MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF URBAN SPATIAL PATTERN (RESIDENTIAL CHOICE OF LOCATION: MOBILITY VS EXTERNALITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahma Fitriani

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Household’s residential choice of location determines urban spatial pattern (e.g sprawl. The static model which assumes that the choice has been affected by distance to the CBD and location specific externality, fails to capture the evoution of the pattern over time. Therefore this study proposes a dynamic version of the model. It analyses the effects of externalities on the optimal solution of development decision as function of time. It also derives the effect of mobility and externality on the rate of change of development pattern through time. When the increasing rate of utility is not as significant as the increasing rate of income, the externalities will delay the change of urban spatial pattern over time. If the mobility costs increase by large amount relative to the increase of income and inflation rate, then the mobility effect dominates the effects of externalities in delaying the urban expansion.

  1. Endogenous Reactivity in a Dynamic Model of Consumer’s Choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad K. Naimzada

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We move from a boundedly rational consumer model (Naimzada and Tramontana, 2008, 2010 characterized by a gradient-like decisional process in which, under particular parameters conditions, the asymptotical convergence to the optimal choice does not happen but it does under a least squared learning mechanism. In the present paper, we prove that even a less sophisticated learning mechanism leads to convergence to the rational choice and also prove that convergence is ensured when both learning mechanisms are available. The stability results that we obtain give more strength to the rational behavior assumption of the original model; in fact, the less demanding is the learning mechanism ensuring convergence to the rational behavior, the higher is the probability that even quite naive consumers will learn the composition of their optimum consumption bundles.

  2. Interactive Web service choice-making based on extended QoS model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Quality of Service (QoS) is a key factor in Web service advertising, choosing and runtime monitoring. Web service QoS is multi-faceted, fuzzy and dynamic. Current researches focus on implementation level performance assurance, ignoring domain specific or application level metrics which are also very important to service users. Industry Web service standards lack QoS expression. The support for QoS based service choice-making is very limited. We proposed an extended Web service QoS model based on configurable fuzzy synthetic evaluation system. Web service QoS is evaluated dynamically according to the service context. A QoS requirement description model is also given for service QoS requirement definition. An interactive Web service choice-making process is described, which takes QoS as a key factor when choosing from functionally equivalent services.

  3. Multiple data sets and modelling choices in a comparative LCA of disposable beverage cups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Harst, Eugenie; Potting, José; Kroeze, Carolien

    2014-10-01

    This study used multiple data sets and modelling choices in an environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare typical disposable beverage cups made from polystyrene (PS), polylactic acid (PLA; bioplastic) and paper lined with bioplastic (biopaper). Incineration and recycling were considered as waste processing options, and for the PLA and biopaper cup also composting and anaerobic digestion. Multiple data sets and modelling choices were systematically used to calculate average results and the spread in results for each disposable cup in eleven impact categories. The LCA results of all combinations of data sets and modelling choices consistently identify three processes that dominate the environmental impact: (1) production of the cup's basic material (PS, PLA, biopaper), (2) cup manufacturing, and (3) waste processing. The large spread in results for impact categories strongly overlaps among the cups, however, and therefore does not allow a preference for one type of cup material. Comparison of the individual waste treatment options suggests some cautious preferences. The average waste treatment results indicate that recycling is the preferred option for PLA cups, followed by anaerobic digestion and incineration. Recycling is slightly preferred over incineration for the biopaper cups. There is no preferred waste treatment option for the PS cups. Taking into account the spread in waste treatment results for all cups, however, none of these preferences for waste processing options can be justified. The only exception is composting, which is least preferred for both PLA and biopaper cups. Our study illustrates that using multiple data sets and modelling choices can lead to considerable spread in LCA results. This makes comparing products more complex, but the outcomes more robust.

  4. The potential of electromobility in Austria: An analysis based on hybrid choice models

    OpenAIRE

    Francisco J. Bahamonde-Birke; Hanappi, Tibor

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyses the impact of the introduction of electromobility in Austria, focusing specifically on the potential demand for electric vehicles in the automotive market. We estimate discrete choice behavioral mixture models considering latent variables; these allows us to deal with this potential demand as well as to analyze the effect of different attributes of the alternatives over the potential market penetration. We find out that some usual assumptions regarding electromobilityalso ...

  5. A Plug-in Hybrid Consumer Choice Model with Detailed Market Segmentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Zhenhong [ORNL; Greene, David L [ORNL

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes a consumer choice model for projecting U.S. demand for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) in competition among 13 light-duty vehicle technologies over the period 2005-2050. New car buyers are disaggregated by region, residential area, attitude toward technology risk, vehicle usage intensity, home parking and work recharging. The nested multinomial logit (NMNL) model of vehicle choice incorporates daily vehicle usage distributions, refueling and recharging availability, technology learning by doing, and diversity of choice among makes and models. Illustrative results are presented for a Base Case, calibrated to the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2009 Reference Updated Case, and an optimistic technology scenario reflecting achievement of U.S. Department of Energy s (DOE s) FreedomCAR goals. PHEV market success is highly dependent on the degree of technological progress assumed. PHEV sales reach one million in 2037 in the Base Case but in 2020 in the FreedomCARGoals Case. In the FreedomCARGoals Case, PHEV cumulative sales reach 1.5 million by 2015. Together with efficiency improvements in other technologies, petroleum use in 2050 is reduced by about 45% from the 2005 level. After technological progress, PHEV s market success appears to be most sensitive to recharging availability, consumers attitudes toward novel echnologies, and vehicle usage intensity. Successful market penetration of PHEVs helps bring down battery costs for electric vehicles (EVs), resulting in a significant EV market share after 2040.

  6. Constraining snow model choices in a transitional snow environment with intensive observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wayand, N. E.; Massmann, A.; Clark, M. P.; Lundquist, J. D.

    2014-12-01

    The performance of existing energy balance snow models exhibits a large spread in the simulated snow water equivalent, snow depth, albedo, and surface temperature. Indentifying poor model representations of physical processes within intercomparison studies is difficult due to multiple differences between models as well as non-orthogonal metrics used. Efforts to overcome these obstacles for model development have focused on a modeling framework that allows multiple representations of each physical process within one structure. However, there still exists a need for snow study sites within complex terrain that observe enough model states and fluxes to constrain model choices. In this study we focus on an intensive snow observational site located in the maritime-transitional snow climate of Snoqualmie Pass WA (Figure 1). The transitional zone has been previously identified as a difficult climate to simulate snow processes; therefore, it represents an ideal model-vetting site. From two water years of intensive observational data, we have learned that a more honest comparison with observations requires that the modeled states or fluxes be as similar to the spatial and temporal domain of the instrument, even if it means changing the model to match what is being observed. For example, 24-hour snow board observations do not capture compaction of the underlying snow; therefore, a modeled "snow board" was created that only includes new snow accumulation and new snow compaction. We extend this method of selective model validation to all available Snoqualmie observations to constrain model choices within the Structure for Understanding Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) framework. Our end goal is to provide a more rigorous and systematic method for diagnosing problems within snow models at a site given numerous snow observations.

  7. Analyzing Multiple-Choice Questions by Model Analysis and Item Response Curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wattanakasiwich, P.; Ananta, S.

    2010-07-01

    In physics education research, the main goal is to improve physics teaching so that most students understand physics conceptually and be able to apply concepts in solving problems. Therefore many multiple-choice instruments were developed to probe students' conceptual understanding in various topics. Two techniques including model analysis and item response curves were used to analyze students' responses from Force and Motion Conceptual Evaluation (FMCE). For this study FMCE data from more than 1000 students at Chiang Mai University were collected over the past three years. With model analysis, we can obtain students' alternative knowledge and the probabilities for students to use such knowledge in a range of equivalent contexts. The model analysis consists of two algorithms—concentration factor and model estimation. This paper only presents results from using the model estimation algorithm to obtain a model plot. The plot helps to identify a class model state whether it is in the misconception region or not. Item response curve (IRC) derived from item response theory is a plot between percentages of students selecting a particular choice versus their total score. Pros and cons of both techniques are compared and discussed.

  8. Coupled Ising models and interdependent discrete choices under social influence in homogeneous populations

    CERN Document Server

    del Río, Ana Fernández

    2011-01-01

    The use of statistical physics to study problems of social sciences is motivated and its current state of the art briefly reviewed, in particular for the case of discrete choice making. The coupling of two binary choices is studied in some detail, using an Ising model for each of the decision variables (the opinion or choice moments or spins, socioeconomic equivalents to the magnetic moments or spins). Toy models for two different types of coupling are studied analytically and numerically in the mean field (infinite range) approximation. This is equivalent to considering a social influence effect proportional to the fraction of adopters or average magnetisation. In the nonlocal case, the two spin variables are coupled through a Weiss mean field type term. In a socioeconomic context, this can be useful when studying individuals of two different groups, making the same decision under social influence of their own group, when their outcome is affected by the fraction of adopters of the other group. In the local ...

  9. PRO-ECOLOGICAL ACTIONS AND CONSUMER CHOICES IN THE MODEL OF RESPONSIBLE BUSINESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarzyna Olejniczak

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The current farming conditions cause that recent social and environmental aspects of management play an important role for the functioning of modern enterprises. This results from the fact that on the one hand the activities of modern enterprises are determined by the surroundings’ increasing complexity, on the other hand the growing demands of various groups of stakeholders build company’s success based not only on a quest to maximize their profi t, but primarily on taking the responsibility for the consequences of their actions. Additionally, the growing awareness of consumers makes more and more enterprises implement the concept of corporate social responsibility (CSR in their actions. For this reason, it is important to discuss about the actions and choices of consumers in the model of CSR. The aim of this article is to present the results of the research on customers‘s environmentally conscious activities and choices.

  10. Applied welfare economics with discrete choice models: implications of theory for empirical specification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Batley, Richard; Ibáñez Rivas, Juan Nicolás

    2013-01-01

    The apparatus of the Random Utility Model (RUM) first emerged in the early 1960s, with Marschak (1960) and Block and Marschak (1960) translating models originally developed for discriminant analysis in psychophysics (Thurstone, 1927) to the alternative domain of discrete choice analysis...... in economics. Whilst some researchers were quick to see its practical potential (e.g. McFadden, 1968, 1975), it was not until the late 1970s and early 1980s that RUM was equipped with a reasonably comprehensive theoretical rationale in terms of the economics of consumption. An important tenet of this rationale...

  11. [The model of the reward choice basing on the theory of reinforcement learning].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smirnitskaia, I A; Frolov, A A; Merzhanova, G Kh

    2007-01-01

    We developed the model of alimentary instrumental conditioned bar-pressing reflex for cats making a choice between either immediate small reinforcement ("impulsive behavior") or delayed more valuable reinforcement ("self-control behavior"). Our model is based on the reinforcement learning theory. We emulated dopamine contribution by discount coefficient of this theory (a subjective decrease in the value of a delayed reinforcement). The results of computer simulation showed that "cats" with large discount coefficient demonstrated "self-control behavior"; small discount coefficient was associated with "impulsive behavior". This data are in agreement with the experimental data indicating that the impulsive behavior is due to a decreased amount of dopamine in striatum.

  12. Fear of Floating and Pegging: A Simultaneous Choice Model of De Jure and De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes

    OpenAIRE

    von Hagen, Jürgen; Zhou, Jizhong

    2008-01-01

    We present an analysis of the determinants of de jure and de facto exchange rate regimes based on a panel probit model with simultaneous equations. The model is estimated using simulation-based maximum likelihood methods. The empirical results suggest a triangular structure of the model such that the choice of de facto regimes depends on the choice of de jure regimes but not vice versa. This gives rise to a novel interpretation of regime discrepancies.

  13. A Day-to-Day Route Choice Model Based on Reinforcement Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fangfang Wei

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Day-to-day traffic dynamics are generated by individual traveler’s route choice and route adjustment behaviors, which are appropriate to be researched by using agent-based model and learning theory. In this paper, we propose a day-to-day route choice model based on reinforcement learning and multiagent simulation. Travelers’ memory, learning rate, and experience cognition are taken into account. Then the model is verified and analyzed. Results show that the network flow can converge to user equilibrium (UE if travelers can remember all the travel time they have experienced, but which is not necessarily the case under limited memory; learning rate can strengthen the flow fluctuation, but memory leads to the contrary side; moreover, high learning rate results in the cyclical oscillation during the process of flow evolution. Finally, both the scenarios of link capacity degradation and random link capacity are used to illustrate the model’s applications. Analyses and applications of our model demonstrate the model is reasonable and useful for studying the day-to-day traffic dynamics.

  14. Sensitivity of simulated regional Arctic climate to the choice of coupled model domain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitry V. Sein

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The climate over the Arctic has undergone changes in recent decades. In order to evaluate the coupled response of the Arctic system to external and internal forcing, our study focuses on the estimation of regional climate variability and its dependence on large-scale atmospheric and regional ocean circulations. A global ocean–sea ice model with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model and global terrestrial hydrology model. This way of coupling divides the global ocean model setup into two different domains: one coupled, where the ocean and the atmosphere are interacting, and one uncoupled, where the ocean model is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing and runs in a so-called stand-alone mode. Therefore, selecting a specific area for the regional atmosphere implies that the ocean–atmosphere system can develop ‘freely’ in that area, whereas for the rest of the global ocean, the circulation is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing without any feedbacks. Five different coupled setups are chosen for ensemble simulations. The choice of the coupled domains was done to estimate the influences of the Subtropical Atlantic, Eurasian and North Pacific regions on northern North Atlantic and Arctic climate. Our simulations show that the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere model is sensitive to the choice of the modelled area. The different model configurations reproduce differently both the mean climate and its variability. Only two out of five model setups were able to reproduce the Arctic climate as observed under recent climate conditions (ERA-40 Reanalysis. Evidence is found that the main source of uncertainty for Arctic climate variability and its predictability is the North Pacific. The prescription of North Pacific conditions in the regional model leads to significant correlation with observations, even if the whole North Atlantic is within the coupled model domain. However, the inclusion of the

  15. Socio-demographic characteristics affecting sport tourism choices: A structural model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataša Slak Valek

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Effective tourism management in the field of sports tourism requires an understanding of differences in socioeconomic characteristics both within and between different market segments. Objective: In the broad tourism market demographic characteristics have been extensively analyzed for differences in destination choices, however little is known about demographic factors affecting sport tourists' decisions. Methods: A sample of Slovenian sports tourists was analyzed using data from a comprehensive survey of local and outbound tourist activity conducted by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia in 2008. After data weighting the information for 353,783 sports related trips were available for analysis. The research model adopted suggests that four socio-demographic characteristics (gender, age, level of education and income significantly affect a tourist's choice of sports related travel either locally within Slovenia or to a foreign country. Furthermore the destination (local or foreign has an influence on the choice of the type of accommodation selected and the tourist's total expenditure for the trip. For testing the first part of our model (the socio-demographic characteristics effects a linear regression was used, and for the final part of the model (the selection of accommodation type and travel expenditure t-test were applied. Results: The result shows the standardized β regression coefficients are all statistically significant at the .001 level for the tested socio-demographic characteristics and also the overall regression model was statistically significant at .001 level. Conclusions: With these results the study confirmed that all the selected socio-demographic characteristics have a significant influence on the sport-active tourist when choosing between a domestic and foreign tourism destination which in turn affect the type of accommodation chosen and the level of expenditure while travelling.

  16. Integrated Mode Choice, Small Aircraft Demand, and Airport Operations Model User's Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yackovetsky, Robert E. (Technical Monitor); Dollyhigh, Samuel M.

    2004-01-01

    A mode choice model that generates on-demand air travel forecasts at a set of GA airports based on changes in economic characteristics, vehicle performance characteristics such as speed and cost, and demographic trends has been integrated with a model to generate itinerate aircraft operations by airplane category at a set of 3227 airports. Numerous intermediate outputs can be generated, such as the number of additional trips diverted from automobiles and schedule air by the improved performance and cost of on-demand air vehicles. The total number of transported passenger miles that are diverted is also available. From these results the number of new aircraft to service the increased demand can be calculated. Output from the models discussed is in the format to generate the origin and destination traffic flow between the 3227 airports based on solutions to a gravity model.

  17. Distinguishing between population bottleneck and population subdivision by a Bayesian model choice procedure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter, Benjamin M; Wegmann, Daniel; Excoffier, Laurent

    2010-11-01

    Although most natural populations are genetically subdivided, they are often analysed as if they were panmictic units. In particular, signals of past demographic size changes are often inferred from genetic data by assuming that the analysed sample is drawn from a population without any internal subdivision. However, it has been shown that a bottleneck signal can result from the presence of some recent immigrants in a population. It thus appears important to contrast these two alternative scenarios in a model choice procedure to prevent wrong conclusions to be made. We use here an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) approach to infer whether observed patterns of genetic diversity in a given sample are more compatible with it being drawn from a panmictic population having gone through some size change, or from one or several demes belonging to a recent finite island model. Simulations show that we can correctly identify samples drawn from a subdivided population in up to 95% of the cases for a wide range of parameters. We apply our model choice procedure to the case of the chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes) and find conclusive evidence that Western and Eastern chimpanzee samples are drawn from a spatially subdivided population.

  18. Investigating attribute non-attendance and its consequences in choice experiments with latent class models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagarde, Mylene

    2013-05-01

    A growing literature, mainly from transport and environment economics, has started to explore whether respondents violate some of the axioms about individuals' preferences in Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) and use simple strategies to make their choices. One of these strategies, termed attribute non-attendance (ANA), consists in ignoring one or more attributes. Using data from a DCE administered to healthcare providers in Ghana to evaluate their potential resistance to changes in clinical guidelines, this study illustrates how latent class models can be used in a step-wise approach to account for all possible ANA strategies used by respondents and explore the consequences of such behaviours. Results show that less than 3% of respondents considered all attributes when choosing between the two hypothetical scenarios proposed, with a majority looking at only one or two attributes. Accounting for ANA strategies improved the goodness-of-fit of the model and affected the magnitude of some of the coefficient and willingness-to-pay estimates. However, there was no difference in the predicted probabilities of the model taking into account ANA and the standard approach. Although the latter result is reassuring about the ability of DCEs to produce unbiased policy guidance, it should be confirmed by other studies.

  19. Fertility behavior and labor force participation: a model of lexicographic choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encarnacion, J J

    1982-01-01

    Evidence exists that a smaller family size is usually associated with female employment and that fertility rises with family income and the wife's education at relatively low levels of income and education. Only at higher levels is there the generally expected relationship that fertility declines with more education or income. Due to the fact that a woman's labor force participation and her fertility are aspects of behavior of the same person (or couple), they should be explained by a model of choice. Such a model is presented, and empirical evidence is cited. In particular, the model allows for a fertility decline even before a decline in mortality during the demographic transition. The model of choice involves threshold values of education and income, such that the marginal effects of these variables on fertility and labor supply are qualitatively different below and above the threshold. The model is in conformity with cross-section regressions using Philippine data and appears to explain why various studies give positive, zero, or negative regression coefficients relating fertility to education and income when standard linear regression specifications are used. Such results would depend on the proportions of families falling below and above the thresholds in the sample of observations. The model also implies that the fertility effects of a child mortality decline on those proportions, meaning that one could have lower mortality without affecting fertility levels. From a policy perspective, the broad implications of the model are distrubing. Development that raises very low income and education levels would increase fertility and so would a more egalitarian distribution of the same low aggregate income. It is necessary to shift the underlying functions so that the thresholds become as low as possible, but general economic development may be too slow for this purpose.

  20. Relevance Of Utility Maximization In Student University Choice – A Consumption-Based Model For Higher Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric S. SCHWARTZ

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper applies a model of utility-maximization to better understand the university choice process. Student decision-making for university choice is conceptualized as a purchase decision process through which students weigh the costs of colleges or universities they choose against their perceived benefits of attending these institutions. The key issues are the impact of consumer’s preferences, income, tuition, and costs in college decision-making. From this perspective, the paper describes the relationship between utility maximization and educational demand, effects of tuition increases, tuition discounting, and financial aid subsidies on university choice. A decision-making scheme for educational consumption is used in order to identify the stages of the university choice process and to predict the behavior of consumers in the higher education marketplace. The analysis points to the need to better inform students about the cost of postsecondary education which is a highly relevant aspect in the university choice process.

  1. Using discrete choice modeling to evaluate the preferences and willingness to pay for leptospirosis vaccine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbiol, Joseph; Yabe, Mitsuyasu; Nomura, Hisako; Borja, Maridel; Gloriani, Nina; Yoshida, Shin-ichi

    2015-01-01

    Leptospirosis is highly endemic in the Philippines and a serious concern to public health. Local research on candidate vaccine is moving through the development pipeline. The availability of vaccines alone does not guarantee acceptance because individuals' vaccination choice decision is influenced by several factors. This study assessed how vaccine attributes and socio-demographic factors affect the acceptability of leptospirosis vaccine; and estimated individuals' willingness to pay for leptospirosis vaccine. A discrete choice experiment was conducted among leptospirosis and non-leptospirosis case respondents (n = 342) living in Metro Manila. Random Parameters Logit model was used to estimate the relative importance of vaccine attributes and socio-demographic variables on respondents' leptospirosis vaccination choice decision. The estimated model coefficients were used to derive implicit prices and willingness to pay for leptospirosis vaccine. Both case respondents preferred leptospirosis vaccine with 70-100% efficacy, mild to moderate risk of side-effects, given in a single shot, and at a lower price. Non-leptospirosis case respondents preferred a vaccine with 7 to 10 y of protection, while leptospirosis case respondents preferred a vaccine with 10 y protection. The probability of leptospirosis vaccination acceptance was affected by respondents' age, education, family size and income, proximity of home to rivers and sewers, and leptospirosis awareness level. Respondents' willingness to pay for leptospirosis vaccine (US$ 31.14-US$ 65.89) was higher than the Japanese retail price (US$ 21.60-US$ 24.00). Our findings indicated significant potential for introducing leptospirosis vaccine in the Philippine vaccine market. Delivery strategies to ensure equitable access to future leptospirosis vaccine are recommended.

  2. Choice certainty in Discrete Choice Experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Uggeldahl, Kennet; Jacobsen, Catrine; Lundhede, Thomas Hedemark;

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we conduct a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) using eye tracking technology to investigate if eye movements during the completion of choice sets reveal information about respondents’ choice certainty. We hypothesise that the number of times that respondents shift their visual...... attention between the alternatives in a choice set reflects their stated choice certainty. Based on one of the largest samples of eye tracking data in a DCE to date, we find evidence in favor of our hypothesis. We also link eye tracking observations to model-based choice certainty through parameterization...... of the scale function in a random parameters logit model. We find that choices characterized by more frequent gaze shifting do indeed exhibit a higher degree of error variance, however, this effects is insignificant once response time is controlled for. Overall, findings suggest that eye tracking can provide...

  3. Model of traffic access mode and railway station choice of suburban railway system in Slovenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregor RAK

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This article presents the establishment of a model of understanding the access mode and railway station choice of Slovenian passengers. Therefore, a model has been designed to predict the determination of existing decision making preferences of railway users about the access mode and railway station choice with a stated preference survey and face to face method. The target group in the survey were railway passengers in the suburban environment that use the rail for work and school purposes. The total number of respondents was 412. The survey showed that most passengers access the railway station with car (60,2%, by foot (26,2%, with public transport (bus – 8,3% and with bike (5,3%. Average distance to the station is 4,9 km, average time of access is 10,5 min. Upon exit most passengers walk to the final destination (84,5%, use the public transport (bus – 14,1%, car (1,2% or bike (0,2%. Average time from exit of the train to final destination is 13,1 min, average distance is 1,58 km.

  4. Women's career choices in chemistry: Motivations, perceptions, and a conceptual model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grunert, Megan L.

    Statistics showing the under-representation of women at all levels within the physical sciences abound, particularly at the graduate and faculty levels. Women chemists choosing an academic career tend to select teaching institutions over research institutions. This study examined women at the graduate and faculty levels through interviews and the construction of participant narratives to better understand why many women opt out of a career in academic research. Specific attention was paid to women's decision-making processes and what motivates women to choose careers, the rewards and challenges associated with different careers, and the perception of different careers contribute to their decisions. The participant narratives were analyzed on a cross-case basis and constructivist grounded theory was used to develop a model about women's decision-making regarding their careers. Additionally, preliminary work has suggested that graduate students have inaccurate perceptions of careers in academia. Interviews with faculty at teaching and research institutions provided a clearer picture of what each type of career entails. Career-choice motivators, rewards, and challenges were identified for each of the faculty groups. It was found that graduate student women have inaccurate perceptions of academic research careers, which affects how they make career decisions. A model of career choice shows interactions between motivation and perception that guide the career decision-making process. By better understanding these women and their motivations, changes can be made to foster inclusion and accommodation for women and other underrepresented groups in academic chemistry.

  5. The unified model of vegetarian identity: A conceptual framework for understanding plant-based food choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenfeld, Daniel L; Burrow, Anthony L

    2017-05-01

    By departing from social norms regarding food behaviors, vegetarians acquire membership in a distinct social group and can develop a salient vegetarian identity. However, vegetarian identities are diverse, multidimensional, and unique to each individual. Much research has identified fundamental psychological aspects of vegetarianism, and an identity framework that unifies these findings into common constructs and conceptually defines variables is needed. Integrating psychological theories of identity with research on food choices and vegetarianism, this paper proposes a conceptual model for studying vegetarianism: The Unified Model of Vegetarian Identity (UMVI). The UMVI encompasses ten dimensions-organized into three levels (contextual, internalized, and externalized)-that capture the role of vegetarianism in an individual's self-concept. Contextual dimensions situate vegetarianism within contexts; internalized dimensions outline self-evaluations; and externalized dimensions describe enactments of identity through behavior. Together, these dimensions form a coherent vegetarian identity, characterizing one's thoughts, feelings, and behaviors regarding being vegetarian. By unifying dimensions that capture psychological constructs universally, the UMVI can prevent discrepancies in operationalization, capture the inherent diversity of vegetarian identities, and enable future research to generate greater insight into how people understand themselves and their food choices.

  6. Determinants of modelling choices for 1-D free-surface flow and erosion issues in hydrology: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheviron, B.; Moussa, R.

    2015-09-01

    This review paper investigates the determinants of modelling choices, for numerous applications of 1-D free-surface flow and erosion equations, across multiple spatiotemporal scales. We aim to characterize each case study by its signature composed of model refinement (Navier-Stokes: NS, Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes: RANS, Saint-Venant: SV or Approximations of Saint-Venant: ASV), spatiotemporal scales (domain length: L from 1 cm to 1000 km; temporal scale: T from 1 second to 1 year; flow depth: H from 1 mm to 10 m), flow typology (Overland: O, High gradient: Hg, Bedforms: B, Fluvial: F) and dimensionless numbers (Dimensionless time period T*, Reynolds number Re, Froude number Fr, Slope S, Inundation ratio Λz, Shields number θ). The determinants of modelling choices are therefore sought in the interplay between flow characteristics, cross-scale and scale-independent views. The influence of spatiotemporal scales on modelling choices is first quantified through the expected correlation between increasing scales and decreasing model refinements, identifying then flow typology a secondary but mattering determinant in the choice of model refinement. This finding is confirmed by the discriminating values of several dimensionless numbers, that prove preferential associations between model refinements and flow typologies. This review is intended to help each modeller positioning his (her) choices with respect to the most frequent practices, within a generic, normative procedure possibly enriched by the community for a larger, comprehensive and updated image of modelling strategies.

  7. Modelling mode choice in short trips - shifting from car to bicycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halldórsdóttir, Katrín; Christensen, Linda; Jensen, Thomas Christian

    2011-01-01

    characteristics of the travellers, purpose of the trips and environmental conditions. Results suggest heterogeneity among cyclists in the sensitivity to travel time, temperature and hilliness. The cost parameter is not significant, probably because of difficulties in the calculation, but possibly because of lower...... available for each period of the day in which the trip was conducted. The present study estimates a mixed logit model able to capture taste variations and differentiates travel time parameters across modes. The mixed logit model allows investigating the effect of level of service variables, individual......This paper investigates the mode choice behaviour of Danish population from the Greater Copenhagen Area when travelling short trips. Data from the Danish National Transport Survey identify the travel behaviour of the Danish population through interviews collecting travel diaries and socio...

  8. Using Latent Mixed Markov Models for the choice of the best pharmacological treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reuter, Martin; Hennig, Juergen; Netter, Petra; Buehner, Markus; Hueppe, Michael

    2004-05-15

    The choice of the best pharmacological treatment for an individual patient is crucial to optimize convalescence. Due to their effects on pharmacokinetics variables like gender and age are important factors when the pharmacological regimen is planned. By means of an example from anaesthesiology the usefulness of Latent Mixed Markov Models for choosing the optimal anaesthetic considering patient characteristics is demonstrated. Latent Mixed Markov models allow to predict and compare the quality of recovery from anaesthesia for different patient groups (defined by age and gender and treated with different anaesthetic regimens) in a multivariate non-parametric approach. On the basis of observed symptoms immediately after surgery and a few days later the probabilities for the respective dynamic latent status (like health or illness) and the probabilities for transition from one status to another are estimated depending on latent class membership (patient group).

  9. Research on group expandable optimization decision-ms,king model for construction programme choice

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yan Hongyan

    2012-01-01

    Aiming at the decision-making problem of construction programme choice, this paper advanced a new group expandable optimization decision-making model. Various factors were comprehensively considered, and the new multi- attribute evaluation index system was established. Based on the assumption that decision-makers were rational, this pa- per formed a group of rational preferences through extracting the personal preferences pertinently, so the decision-makers position matrix was determined. The decision-makers position matrix integrated values given by group decision-makers to construction programme comprised a matrix, of which the entropy theory for data mining was adopted in this paper to determine the attribute weights. A decision was made by using the extension decision method. Eventually, the feasibility and practicability of the model were verified by the example.

  10. Making Energy-Efficiency and Productivity Investments in Commercial Buildings: Choice of Investment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, D.W.

    2002-05-16

    This study examines the decision to invest in buildings and the types of investment decision rules that may be employed to inform the ''go--no go'' decision. There is a range of decision making tools available to help in investment choices, which range from simple rules of thumb such as payback periods, to life-cycle analysis, to decision theoretic approaches. Payback period analysis tends to point toward lower first costs, whereas life-cycle analysis tends to minimize uncertainties over future events that can affect profitability. We conclude that investment models that integrate uncertainty offer better explanations for the behavior that is observed, i.e., people tend to delay investments in technologies that life-cycle analysis finds cost-effective, and these models also lead to an alternative set of policies targeted at reducing of managing uncertainty.

  11. On the choice of statistical models for estimating occurrence and extinction from animal surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorazio, R.M.

    2007-01-01

    In surveys of natural animal populations the number of animals that are present and available to be detected at a sample location is often low, resulting in few or no detections. Low detection frequencies are especially common in surveys of imperiled species; however, the choice of sampling method and protocol also may influence the size of the population that is vulnerable to detection. In these circumstances, probabilities of animal occurrence and extinction will generally be estimated more accurately if the models used in data analysis account for differences in abundance among sample locations and for the dependence between site-specific abundance and detection. Simulation experiments are used to illustrate conditions wherein these types of models can be expected to outperform alternative estimators of population site occupancy and extinction. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

  12. Choice Overload, Satisficing Behavior, and Price Distribution in a Time Allocation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Álvarez

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent psychological research indicates that consumers that search exhaustively for the best option of a market product—known as maximizers—eventually feel worse than consumers who just look for something good enough—called satisficers. We formulate a time allocation model to explore the relationship between different distributions of prices of the product and the satisficing behavior and the related welfare of the consumer. We show numerically that, as the number of options becomes large, the maximizing behavior produces less and less welfare and eventually leads to choice paralysis—these are effects of choice overload—whereas satisficing conducts entail higher levels of satisfaction and do not end up in paralysis. For different price distributions, we provide consistent evidence that maximizers are better off for a low number of options, whereas satisficers are better off for a sufficiently large number of options. We also show how the optimal satisficing behavior is affected when the underlying price distribution varies. We provide evidence that the mean and the dispersion of a symmetric distribution of prices—but not the shape of the distribution—condition the satisficing behavior of consumers. We also show that this need not be the case for asymmetric distributions.

  13. Using stated preference discrete choice modelling to evaluate the introduction of varicella vaccination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Jane; Kenny, Patricia; King, Madeleine; Louviere, Jordan; Viney, Rosalie; Yeoh, Angela

    2002-07-01

    Applications of stated preference discrete choice modelling (SPDCM) in health economics have been used to estimate consumer willingness to pay and to broaden the range of consequences considered in economic evaluation. This paper demonstrates how SPDCM can be used to predict participation rates, using the case of varicella (chickenpox) vaccination. Varicella vaccination may be cost effective compared to other public health programs, but this conclusion is sensitive to the proportion of the target population immunised. A choice experiment was conducted on a sample of Australian parents to predict uptake across a range of hypothetical programs. Immunisation rates would be increased by providing immunisation at no cost, by requiring it for school entry, by increasing immunisation rates in the community and decreasing the incidence of mild and severe side effects. There were two significant interactions; price modified the effect of both support from authorities and severe side effects. Country of birth was the only significant demographic characteristic. Depending on aspects of the immunisation program, the immunisation rates of children with Australian-born parents varied from 9% to 99% while for the children with parents born outside Australia they varied from 40% to 99%. This demonstrates how SPDCM can be used to understand the levels of attributes that will induce a change in the decision to immunise, the modification of the effect of one attribute by another, and subgroups in the population. Such insights can contribute to the optimal design and targeting of health programs.

  14. Choice Model and Influencing Factor Analysis of Travel Mode for Migrant Workers: Case Study in Xi’an, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Chen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the basic theory and methods of disaggregate choice model, the influencing factors in travel mode choice for migrant workers are analyzed, according to 1366 data samples of Xi’an migrant workers. Walking, bus, subway, and taxi are taken as the alternative parts of travel modes for migrant workers, and a multinomial logit (MNL model of travel mode for migrant workers is set up. The validity of the model is verified by the hit rate, and the hit rates of four travel modes are all greater than 80%. Finally, the influence of different factors affecting the choice of travel mode is analyzed in detail, and the inelasticity of each factor is analyzed with the elasticity theory. Influencing factors such as age, education level, and monthly gross income have significant impact on travel choice mode for migrant workers. The elasticity values of education degree are greater than 1, indicating that it on the travel mode choice is of elasticity, while the elasticity values of gender, industry distribution, and travel purpose are less than 1, indicating that these factors on travel mode choice are of inelasticity.

  15. Amount of information needed for model choice in Approximate Bayesian Computation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stocks, Michael; Siol, Mathieu; Lascoux, Martin; De Mita, Stéphane

    2014-01-01

    Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) has become a popular technique in evolutionary genetics for elucidating population structure and history due to its flexibility. The statistical inference framework has benefited from significant progress in recent years. In population genetics, however, its outcome depends heavily on the amount of information in the dataset, whether that be the level of genetic variation or the number of samples and loci. Here we look at the power to reject a simple constant population size coalescent model in favor of a bottleneck model in datasets of varying quality. Not only is this power dependent on the number of samples and loci, but it also depends strongly on the level of nucleotide diversity in the observed dataset. Whilst overall model choice in an ABC setting is fairly powerful and quite conservative with regard to false positives, detecting weaker bottlenecks is problematic in smaller or less genetically diverse datasets and limits the inferences possible in non-model organism where the amount of information regarding the two models is often limited. Our results show it is important to consider these limitations when performing an ABC analysis and that studies should perform simulations based on the size and nature of the dataset in order to fully assess the power of the study.

  16. Long bone defect models for tissue engineering applications: criteria for choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horner, Elizabeth A; Kirkham, Jennifer; Wood, David; Curran, Stephen; Smith, Mark; Thomson, Brian; Yang, Xuebin B

    2010-04-01

    The replacement and repair of bone lost due to trauma, cancer, or congenital defects is a major clinical challenge. Skeletal tissue engineering is a potentially powerful strategy in modern regenerative medicine, and research in this field has increased greatly in recent years. Tissue engineering strategies seek to translate research findings in the fields of materials science, stem cell biology, and biomineralization into clinical applications, demanding the use of appropriate in vivo models to investigate bone regeneration of the long bone. However, identification of the optimal in vivo segmental bone defect model from the literature is difficult due to the use of different animal species (large and small mammals), different bones (weight-bearing and nonweight bearing), and multiple protocols, including the use of various scaffolds, cells, and bioactives. The aim of this review is to summarize the available animal models for evaluating long bone regeneration in vivo. We highlight the differences not only in species and sites but also in defect size, means of defect creation, duration of study, and fixation method. A critical evaluation of the most clinically relevant models is addressed to guide the researcher in his/her choice of the most appropriate model to use in future hypothesis-driven investigations.

  17. A Two-Dimensional CA Traffic Model with Dynamic Route Choices Between Residence and Workplace

    CERN Document Server

    Fang, Jun; Chen, Xi-Qun; Qin, Zheng

    2015-01-01

    The Biham, Middleton and Levine (BML) model is extended to describe dynamic route choices between the residence and workplace in cities. The traffic dynamic in the city with a single workplace is studied from the velocity diagram, arrival time probability distribution, destination arrival rate and convergence time. The city with double workplaces is also investigated to compared with a single workplace within the framework of four modes of urban growth. The transitional region is found in the velocity diagrams where the system undergoes a continuous transition from a moving phase to a completely jamming phase. We perform a finite-size scaling analysis of the critical density from a statistical point of view and the order parameter of this jamming transition is estimated. It is also found that statistical properties of urban traffic are greatly influenced by the urban area, workplace area and urban layout.

  18. A model of adolescents' seeking of sexual content in their media choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleakley, Amy; Hennessy, Michael; Fishbein, Martin

    2011-07-01

    This article reports on the extent to which adolescents report actively seeking sexual content in media, identifies from which media they report seeking, estimates the association between seeking sexual information and romantic and sexual behavior, and shows that active seeking of sexual content in media sources is explained by an intention to seek such content using the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction, a reasoned action approach. The data are a national sample of 810 adolescents aged 13 to 18 years. Results show that 50% of adolescents reported actively seeking sexual content in their media choices, which included movies, television, music, Internet pornography sites, and magazines. Males sought sex content more than females, and gender differences were greatest for seeking from Internet pornography sites, movies, and television. Path analysis demonstrate that seeking sexual content is well-predicted by intentions to seek, and intentions are primarily driven by perceived normative pressure to seek sexual content.

  19. A hybrid mode choice model to account for the dynamic effect of inertia over time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cherchi, Elisabetta; Börjesson, Maria; Bierlaire, Michel

    gathered over a continuous period of time, six weeks, to study both inertia and the influence of habits. Tendency to stick with the same alternative is measured through lagged variables that link the current choice with the previous trip made with the same purpose, mode and time of day. However, the lagged...... effect of the previous trips is not constant but it depends on the individual propensity to undertake habitual trips which is captured by the individual specific latent variable. And the frequency of the trips in the previous week is used as an indicator of the habitual behavior. The model estimation...... confirms that the tendency to stick with the same alternative varies not only among modes but also across individuals as a function of the individual propensity to undertake habitual behavior....

  20. Interaction prediction between groundwater and quarry extension using discrete choice models and artificial neural networks

    CERN Document Server

    Barthélemy, Johan; Collier, Louise; Hallet, Vincent; Moriamé, Marie; Sartenaer, Annick

    2016-01-01

    Groundwater and rock are intensively exploited in the world. When a quarry is deepened the water table of the exploited geological formation might be reached. A dewatering system is therefore installed so that the quarry activities can continue, possibly impacting the nearby water catchments. In order to recommend an adequate feasibility study before deepening a quarry, we propose two interaction indices between extractive activity and groundwater resources based on hazard and vulnerability parameters used in the assessment of natural hazards. The levels of each index (low, medium, high, very high) correspond to the potential impact of the quarry on the regional hydrogeology. The first index is based on a discrete choice modelling methodology while the second is relying on an artificial neural network. It is shown that these two complementary approaches (the former being probabilistic while the latter fully deterministic) are able to predict accurately the level of interaction. Their use is finally illustrate...

  1. Opponent actor learning (OpAL): modeling interactive effects of striatal dopamine on reinforcement learning and choice incentive.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Anne G E; Frank, Michael J

    2014-07-01

    The striatal dopaminergic system has been implicated in reinforcement learning (RL), motor performance, and incentive motivation. Various computational models have been proposed to account for each of these effects individually, but a formal analysis of their interactions is lacking. Here we present a novel algorithmic model expanding the classical actor-critic architecture to include fundamental interactive properties of neural circuit models, incorporating both incentive and learning effects into a single theoretical framework. The standard actor is replaced by a dual opponent actor system representing distinct striatal populations, which come to differentially specialize in discriminating positive and negative action values. Dopamine modulates the degree to which each actor component contributes to both learning and choice discriminations. In contrast to standard frameworks, this model simultaneously captures documented effects of dopamine on both learning and choice incentive-and their interactions-across a variety of studies, including probabilistic RL, effort-based choice, and motor skill learning.

  2. Modeling the hospital safety partnership preferences of patients and their families: a discrete choice conjoint experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cunningham CE

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Charles E Cunningham,1 Tracy Hutchings,2 Jennifer Henderson,2 Heather Rimas,1 Yvonne Chen1 1Department of Psychiatry and Behavioural Neurosciences, Faculty of Health Sciences, Michael G DeGroote School of Medicine, McMaster University, 2Department of Quality and Performance, Hamilton Health Sciences, Hamilton, ON, Canada Background: Patients and their families play an important role in efforts to improve health service safety. Objective: The objective of this study is to understand the safety partnership preferences of patients and their families. Method: We used a discrete choice conjoint experiment to model the safety partnership preferences of 1,084 patients or those such as parents acting on their behalf. Participants made choices between hypothetical safety partnerships composed by experimentally varying 15 four-level partnership design attributes. Results: Participants preferred an approach to safety based on partnerships between patients and staff rather than a model delegating responsibility for safety to hospital staff. They valued the opportunity to participate in point of service safety partnerships, such as identity and medication double checks, that might afford an immediate risk reduction. Latent class analysis yielded two segments. Actively engaged participants (73.3% comprised outpatients with higher education, who anticipated more benefits to safety partnerships, were more confident in their ability to contribute, and were more intent on participating. They were more likely to prefer a personal engagement strategy, valued scientific evidence, preferred a more active approach to safety education, and advocated disclosure of errors. The passively engaged segment (26.7% anticipated fewer benefits, were less confident in their ability to contribute, and were less intent on participating. They were more likely to prefer an engagement strategy based on signage. They preferred that staff explain why they thought patients should help

  3. Computational models of the Posner simple and choice reaction time tasks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina eFeher Da Silva

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The landmark experiments by Posner in the late 1970s have shown thatreaction time (RT is faster when the stimulus appears in an expectedlocation, as indicated by a cue; since then, the so-called Posnertask has been considered a ``gold standard'' test of spatial attention.It is thus fundamental to understand the neural mechanisms involvedin performing it. To this end, we have developed a Bayesian detectionsystem and small integrate-and-fire neural networks, which modeledsensory and motor circuits respectively, and optimized them to perform thePosner task under different cue type proportions and noise levels.In doing so, main findings of experimental research on RT were replicated:the relative frequency effect, suboptimal RTs and significant errorrates due to noise and invalid cues, slower RT for choice RT tasksthan for simple RT tasks, fastest RTs for valid cues and slowest RTsfor invalid cues. Analysis of the optimized systems revealed thatthe employed mechanisms were consistent with related findings in neurophysiology.Our models predict that (1 the results of a Posner task may be affectedby the relative frequency of valid and neutral trials, (2 in simpleRT tasks, input from multiple locations are added together to composea stronger signal, and (3 the cue affects motor circuits more stronglyin choice RT tasks than in simple RT tasks. In discussing the computationaldemands of the Posner task, attention has often been described asa filter that protects the nervous system, whose capacity is limited,from information overload. Our models, however, reveal that the mainproblems that must be overcome to perform the Posner task effectivelyare distinguishing signal from external noise and selectingthe appropriate response in the presence of internal noise.

  4. Airline Choice for Domestic Flights in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: An Application of the Conditional Logit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, Marcelo Baena

    2006-01-01

    Using the conditional (multinomial) LOGIT model, this paper addresses airline choice in the S o Paulo Metropolitan Area. There are two airports in this region, where two, three or even four airlines compete for passengers flying to an array of domestic destinations. The airline choice is believed to be a result of the tradeoff passengers face among flight cost, flight frequency and airline performance. It was found that the lowest fare better explains airline choice than the highest fare, whereas direct flight frequencies give better explanation to airline choice than indirect (connections and stops) and total (direct plus indirect) ones. Out of 15 variables tested, the lowest fare was the variable that best explained airline choice. However, its signal was counterintuitive (positive) possibly because the cheapest airline was offering few flights, so passengers overwhelmingly failed to choose the cheapest airline. The model specification most adjusted to the data considered the lowest fare, direct flight frequency in the travel day and period (morning or afternoon peak) and airline age. Passengers departing from S o Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) airport make their airline choice in terms of cost whereas those from Sao Paulo-Congonhas Airport (CGH) airport do not. Finally, senior passengers place more importance on airline age than junior passengers.

  5. A review of urban residential choice models using agent-based modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huang, Qingxu; Parker, Dawn C.; Filatova, Tatiana; Sun, Shipeng

    2014-01-01

    Urban land-use modeling methods have experienced substantial improvements in the last several decades. With the advancement of urban land-use change theories and modeling techniques, a considerable number of models have been developed. The relatively young approach, agent-based modeling, provides ur

  6. A robotics-based approach to modeling of choice reaching experiments on visual attention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soeren eStrauss

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a robotics-based model for choice reaching experiments on visual attention. In these experiments participants were asked to make rapid reach movements towards a target in an odd-colour search task, i.e. reaching for a green square among red squares and vice versa (e.g. Song & Nakayama, 2008. Interestingly these studies found that in a high number of trials movements were initially directed towards a distractor and only later were adjusted towards the target. These curved trajectories occurred particularly frequently when the target in the directly preceding trial had a different colour (priming effect. Our model is embedded in a closed-loop control of a LEGO robot arm aiming to mimic these reach movements. The model is based on our earlier work which suggests that target selection in visual search is implemented through parallel interactions between competitive and cooperative processes in the brain (Heinke & Backhaus, 2011; Heinke & Humphreys, 2003. To link this model with the control of the robot arm we implemented a topological representation of movement parameters following the dynamic field theory (Erlhagen & Schoener, 2002. The robot arm is able to mimic the results of the odd-colour search task including the priming effect and also generates human-like trajectories with a bell-shaped velocity profile. Theoretical implications and predictions are discussed in the paper.

  7. Significance of hydrological model choice and land use changes when doing climate change impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjørnholt Karlsson, Ida; Obel Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Høgh Jensen, Karsten

    2014-05-01

    Uncertainty in impact studies arises both from Global Climate Models (GCM), emission projections, statistical downscaling, Regional Climate Models (RCM), hydrological models and calibration techniques (Refsgaard et al. 2013). Some of these uncertainties have been evaluated several times in the literature; however few studies have investigated the effect of hydrological model choice on the assessment results (Boorman & Sefton 1997; Jiang et al. 2007; Bastola et al. 2011). These studies have found that model choice results in large differences, up to 70%, in the predicted discharge changes depending on the climate input. The objective of the study is to investigate the impact of climate change on hydrology of the Odense catchment, Denmark both in response to (a) different climate projections (GCM-RCM combinations); (b) different hydrological models and (c) different land use scenarios. This includes: 1. Separation of the climate model signal; the hydrological model signal and the land use signal 2. How do the different hydrological components react under different climate and land use conditions for the different models 3. What land use scenario seems to provide the best adaptation for the challenges of the different future climate change scenarios from a hydrological perspective? Four climate models from the ENSEMBLES project (Hewitt & Griggs 2004): ECHAM5 - HIRHAM5, ECHAM5 - RCA3, ARPEGE - RM5.1 and HadCM3 - HadRM3 are used, assessing the climate change impact in three periods: 1991-2010 (present), 2041-2060 (near future) and 2081-2100 (far future). The four climate models are used in combination with three hydrological models with different conceptual layout: NAM, SWAT and MIKE SHE. Bastola, S., C. Murphy and J. Sweeney (2011). "The role of hydrological modelling uncertainties in climate change impact assessments of Irish river catchments." Advances in Water Resources 34: 562-576. Boorman, D. B. and C. E. M. Sefton (1997). "Recognising the uncertainty in the

  8. APPLICATION OF THE NUMERICAL MODELING METHODS TO THE TASK OF CHOICE OF THE CHILL ACCESSORY VENT HOLES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Chichko

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The new method of choice of vent holes on the basis of numerical modeling, differing from the known ones by accounting of dynamics of gas phase, determined by modeling of the chill filling with metal, what allows to minimize the formation of gas defects in casting, is offered.

  9. Patterns of Reinforcement and the Essential Value of Brands: II. Evaluation of a Model of Consumer Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Ji; Foxall, Gordon R.; Doyle, John R.

    2012-01-01

    We employ a behavioral-economic equation put forward by Hursh and Silberberg (2008) to explain human consumption behavior among substitutable food brands, applying a consumer-choice model--the behavioral perspective model (BPM; Foxall, 1990/2004, 2005). In this study, we apply the behavioral-economic equation to human economic consumption data. We…

  10. Determinants of modelling choices for 1-D free-surface flow and morphodynamics in hydrology and hydraulics: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheviron, Bruno; Moussa, Roger

    2016-09-01

    This review paper investigates the determinants of modelling choices, for numerous applications of 1-D free-surface flow and morphodynamic equations in hydrology and hydraulics, across multiple spatiotemporal scales. We aim to characterize each case study by its signature composed of model refinement (Navier-Stokes: NS; Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes: RANS; Saint-Venant: SV; or approximations to Saint-Venant: ASV), spatiotemporal scales and subscales (domain length: L from 1 cm to 1000 km; temporal scale: T from 1 s to 1 year; flow depth: H from 1 mm to 10 m; spatial step for modelling: δL; temporal step: δT), flow typology (Overland: O; High gradient: Hg; Bedforms: B; Fluvial: F), and dimensionless numbers (dimensionless time period T*, Reynolds number Re, Froude number Fr, slope S, inundation ratio Λz, Shields number θ). The determinants of modelling choices are therefore sought in the interplay between flow characteristics and cross-scale and scale-independent views. The influence of spatiotemporal scales on modelling choices is first quantified through the expected correlation between increasing scales and decreasing model refinements (though modelling objectives also show through the chosen spatial and temporal subscales). Then flow typology appears a secondary but important determinant in the choice of model refinement. This finding is confirmed by the discriminating values of several dimensionless numbers, which prove preferential associations between model refinements and flow typologies. This review is intended to help modellers in positioning their choices with respect to the most frequent practices, within a generic, normative procedure possibly enriched by the community for a larger, comprehensive and updated image of modelling strategies.

  11. Combining spatial modeling and choice experiments for the optimal spatial allocation of wind turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drechsler, Martin, E-mail: martin.drechsler@ufz.de [UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Department of Ecological Modelling, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig (Germany); Ohl, Cornelia [German Emissions Trading Authority, Bismarckplatz 1, 14193 Berlin (Germany); Meyerhoff, Juergen [Berlin Institute of Technology, Institute for Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning, Strasse des 17. Juni 145, 10623 Berlin (Germany); Eichhorn, Marcus [UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Department of Ecological Modelling, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig (Germany); Monsees, Jan [UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Department of Economics, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig (Germany)

    2011-06-15

    Although wind power is currently the most efficient source of renewable energy, the installation of wind turbines (WT) in landscapes often leads to conflicts in the affected communities. We propose that such conflicts can be mitigated by a welfare-optimal spatial allocation of WT in the landscape so that a given energy target is reached at minimum social costs. The energy target is motivated by the fact that wind power production is associated with relatively low CO{sub 2} emissions. Social costs comprise energy production costs as well as external costs caused by harmful impacts on humans and biodiversity. We present a modeling approach that combines spatially explicit ecological-economic modeling and choice experiments to determine the welfare-optimal spatial allocation of WT in West Saxony, Germany. The welfare-optimal sites balance production and external costs. Results indicate that in the welfare-optimal allocation the external costs represent about 14% of the total costs (production costs plus external costs). Optimizing wind power production without consideration of the external costs would lead to a very different allocation of WT that would marginally reduce the production costs but strongly increase the external costs and thus lead to substantial welfare losses. - Highlights: > We combine modeling and economic valuation to optimally allocate wind turbines. > Welfare-optimal allocation balances energy production costs and external costs. > External costs (impacts on the environment) can be substantial. > Ignoring external costs leads to suboptimal allocations and welfare losses.

  12. Impulsive choice behavior in four strains of rats: evaluation of possible models of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Ana; Kirkpatrick, Kimberly

    2013-02-01

    Several studies have examined impulsive choice behavior in spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHRs) as a possible pre-clinical model for Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). However, this strain was not specifically selected for the traits of ADHD and as a result their appropriateness as a model has been questioned. The present study investigated whether SHRs would exhibit impulsive behavior in comparison to their control strain, Wistar Kyoto (WKY) rats. In addition, we evaluated a strain that has previously shown high levels of impulsive choice, the Lewis (LEW) rats and compared them with their source strain, Wistar (WIS) rats. In the first phase, rats could choose between a smaller-sooner (SS) reward of 1 pellet after 10 s and a larger-later (LL) reward of 2 pellets after 30 s. Subsequently, the rats were exposed to increases in LL reward magnitude and SS delay. These manipulations were designed to assess sensitivity to magnitude and delay within the choice task to parse out possible differences in using the strains as models of specific deficits associated with ADHD. The SHR and WKY strains did not differ in their choice behavior under either delay or magnitude manipulations. In comparison to WIS, LEW showed deficits in choice behavior in the delay manipulation, and to a lesser extent in the magnitude manipulation. An examination of individual differences indicated that the SHR strain may not be sufficiently homogeneous in their impulsive choice behavior to be considered as a viable model for impulse control disorders such as ADHD. The LEW strain may be worthy of further consideration for their suitability as an animal model.

  13. The propensity and the postponement of firm relocations. Testing approaches for housing choice models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goetgeluk, R.W.; Louw, E.; Marien, A.A.A.

    2009-01-01

    Forecasting demand for industrial land and commercial property depends on a valid estimation how many firms move to various locations for various reasons. Estimations based on stated choices and revealed choices often differ in size and composition. Spatial and economic planning benefit if we reduce

  14. A linear programming model of diet choice of free-living beavers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nolet, BA; VanderVeer, PJ; Evers, EGJ; Ottenheim, MM

    1995-01-01

    Linear programming has been remarkably successful in predicting the diet choice of generalist herbivores. We used this technique to test the diet choice of free-living beavers (Castor fiber) in the Biesbosch (The Netherlands) under different Foraging goals, i.e. maximization of intake of energy, nit

  15. Retail Location Choice with Complementary Goods: An Agent-Based Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Arthur; Levinson, David

    This paper models the emergence of retail clusters on a supply chain network comprised of suppliers, retailers, and consumers. Firstly, an agent-based model is proposed to investigate retail location distribution in a market of two complementary goods. The methodology controls for supplier locales and unit sales prices of retailers and suppliers, and a consumer’s willingness to patronize a retailer depends on the total travel distance of buying both goods. On a circle comprised of discrete locations, retailers play a non-cooperative game of location choice to maximize individual profits. Our findings suggest that the probability distribution of the number of clusters in equilibrium follows power law and that hierarchical distribution patterns are much more likely to occur than the spread-out ones. In addition, retailers of complementary goods tend to co-locate at supplier locales. Sensitivity tests on the number of retailers are also performed. Secondly, based on the County Business Patterns (CBP) data of Minneapolis-St. Paul from US Census 2000 database, we find that the number of clothing stores and the distribution of food stores at the zip code level follows power-law distribution.

  16. An agent-based simulation model of patient choice of health care providers in accountable care organizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alibrahim, Abdullah; Wu, Shinyi

    2016-10-04

    Accountable care organizations (ACO) in the United States show promise in controlling health care costs while preserving patients' choice of providers. Understanding the effects of patient choice is critical in novel payment and delivery models like ACO that depend on continuity of care and accountability. The financial, utilization, and behavioral implications associated with a patient's decision to forego local health care providers for more distant ones to access higher quality care remain unknown. To study this question, we used an agent-based simulation model of a health care market composed of providers able to form ACO serving patients and embedded it in a conditional logit decision model to examine patients capable of choosing their care providers. This simulation focuses on Medicare beneficiaries and their congestive heart failure (CHF) outcomes. We place the patient agents in an ACO delivery system model in which provider agents decide if they remain in an ACO and perform a quality improving CHF disease management intervention. Illustrative results show that allowing patients to choose their providers reduces the yearly payment per CHF patient by $320, reduces mortality rates by 0.12 percentage points and hospitalization rates by 0.44 percentage points, and marginally increases provider participation in ACO. This study demonstrates a model capable of quantifying the effects of patient choice in a theoretical ACO system and provides a potential tool for policymakers to understand implications of patient choice and assess potential policy controls.

  17. A multi-model multi-objective study to evaluate the role of metric choice on sensitivity assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haghnegahdar, Amin; Razavi, Saman; Wheater, Howard; Gupta, Hoshin

    2016-04-01

    Sensitivity analysis (SA) is an essential tool for providing insight into model behavior, calibration, and uncertainty assessment. It is often overlooked that the metric choice can significantly change the assessment of model sensitivity. In order to identify important hydrological processes across various case studies, we conducted a multi-model multi-criteria sensitivity analysis using a novel and efficient technique, Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces (VARS). The analysis was conducted using three physically-based hydrological models, applied at various scales ranging from small (hillslope) to large (watershed) scale. In each case, the sensitivity of simulated streamflow to model processes (represented through parameters) were measured using different metrics selected based on various hydrograph characteristics including high flows, low flows, and volume. It is demonstrated that metric choice has a significant influence on SA results and must be aligned with study objectives. Guidelines for identifying important model parameters from a multi-objective SA perspective is discussed as part of this study.

  18. Renewable energy systems the choice and modeling of 100% renewable solutions

    CERN Document Server

    Lund, Henrik

    2009-01-01

    How can society quickly convert to renewable energy? Can worldwide energy needs ever be met through 100% renewable sources? The answers to these questions rest largely on the perception of choice in the energy arena. It is of pivotal importance that engineers, researchers and policymakers understand what choices are available, and reasonable, when considering the design and deployment of new energy systems. The mission of this new book, written by one of the world's foremost experts in renewable power, is to arm these professionals with the tools and methodologies necessary to make smart choic

  19. Modeling individual and collective opinion in online social networks: drivers of choice behavior and effects of marketing interventions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koster, S.E.; Langley, D.J.

    2013-01-01

    We investigate factors influencing choice behavior in online social networks. We use twitter data from a Dutch television talent show. In study one, we implement a nested conditional logit model with latent classes. We find heterogeneous effects. For two latent classes, cognitive factors most strong

  20. The Fixed-Links Model in Combination with the Polynomial Function as a Tool for Investigating Choice Reaction Time Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweizer, Karl

    2006-01-01

    A model with fixed relations between manifest and latent variables is presented for investigating choice reaction time data. The numbers for fixation originate from the polynomial function. Two options are considered: the component-based (1 latent variable for each component of the polynomial function) and composite-based options (1 latent…

  1. Analyzing Factors Influencing Teaching as a Career Choice Using Structural Equation Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budhinath Padhy

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the study is to analyze factors influencing students’ perceptions of teaching as a career choice using structural equation modeling with the goal of shaping a teacher education recruitment program. In this study, 458 students from a Midwestern university in the United States responded to an online survey about career-related factors they value, their expectation that teaching would offer those factors, and any social-influence factors that might encourage them to choose a teaching career. The effect of 10 exogenous motivation variables (value-environment, value-intrinsic, value-extrinsic, value-altruistic, expectancy-environment, expectancy-intrinsic, expectancy-extrinsic, social-media-education, social-prior-experience, and social-suggestions on choosing a teaching career was examined. Results of our analysis showed that the factors related to expectancy-environment, expectancy-intrinsic, social-media-education, social-prior-experience, and social-suggestions were found to be significant, whereas value-related factors and expectancy-extrinsic factors were found to be insignificant.

  2. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: Does model choice affect survival estimates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  3. Model and Measurement Methodology for the Analysis of Consumer Choice of Food Products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Wierenga (Berend)

    1983-01-01

    textabstractThis paper considers the problem of a consumer purchasing a food product within a certain product class (e. g. meat, bread, vegetables, soft drinks, cheese) and making a choice from the different alternatives that are available.

  4. The Effect of Data Structure and Model Choices on MFA Results: A Comparison of Phosphorus Balances for Denmark and Austria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klinglmair, Manfred; Zoboli, Ottavia; Laner, David;

    2016-01-01

    to be disregarded. We identify and quantify the effects of choices made in system layout, data material and uncertainty assessment on the outcome of regional MFAs using two recent country-scale MFAs (of Denmark and Austria) of phosphorus as a case study. We highlight the differences in system boundaries......Material Flow Analysis (MFA) studies for a particular substance often exist for several different countries or regions, but share a similar goal and scope. In direct comparisons of such regional resource budgets, the importance of the choices made in establishing an MFA system tends...... and definition of flows and processes. We quantify types and choice of data sources; analyse the consistency of the data used by looking at the extent of data reconciliation, as a measure of model quality; quantify the effect of different approaches to uncertainty assessment; and show the influence...

  5. Preference pulses and the win-stay, fix-and-sample model of choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hachiga, Yosuke; Sakagami, Takayuki; Silberberg, Alan

    2015-11-01

    Two groups of six rats each were trained to respond to two levers for a food reinforcer. One group was trained on concurrent variable-ratio 20 extinction schedules of reinforcement. The second group was trained on a concurrent variable-interval 27-s extinction schedule. In both groups, lever-schedule assignments changed randomly following reinforcement; a light cued the lever providing the next reinforcer. In the next condition, the light cue was removed and reinforcer assignment strictly alternated between levers. The next two conditions redetermined, in order, the first two conditions. Preference pulses, defined as a tendency for relative response rate to decline to the just-reinforced alternative with time since reinforcement, only appeared during the extinction schedule. Although the pulse's functional form was well described by a reinforcer-induction equation, there was a large residual between actual data and a pulse-as-artifact simulation (McLean, Grace, Pitts, & Hughes, 2014) used to discern reinforcer-dependent contributions to pulsing. However, if that simulation was modified to include a win-stay tendency (a propensity to stay on the just-reinforced alternative), the residual was greatly reduced. Additional modifications of the parameter values of the pulse-as-artifact simulation enabled it to accommodate the present results as well as those it originally accommodated. In its revised form, this simulation was used to create a model that describes response runs to the preferred alternative as terminating probabilistically, and runs to the unpreferred alternative as punctate with occasional perseverative response runs. After reinforcement, choices are modeled as returning briefly to the lever location that had been just reinforced. This win-stay propensity is hypothesized as due to reinforcer induction.

  6. Incorporating environmental attitudes in discrete choice models: an exploration of the utility of the awareness of consequences scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoyos, David; Mariel, Petr; Hess, Stephane

    2015-02-01

    Environmental economists are increasingly interested in better understanding how people cognitively organise their beliefs and attitudes towards environmental change in order to identify key motives and barriers that stimulate or prevent action. In this paper, we explore the utility of a commonly used psychometric scale, the awareness of consequences (AC) scale, in order to better understand stated choices. The main contribution of the paper is that it provides a novel approach to incorporate attitudinal information into discrete choice models for environmental valuation: firstly, environmental attitudes are incorporated using a reinterpretation of the classical AC scale recently proposed by Ryan and Spash (2012); and, secondly, attitudinal data is incorporated as latent variables under a hybrid choice modelling framework. This novel approach is applied to data from a survey conducted in the Basque Country (Spain) in 2008 aimed at valuing land-use policies in a Natura 2000 Network site. The results are relevant to policy-making because choice models that are able to accommodate underlying environmental attitudes may help in designing more effective environmental policies.

  7. Anatomical features for an adequate choice of experimental animal model in biomedicine: II. Small laboratory rodents, rabbit, and pig.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lossi, Laura; D'Angelo, Livia; De Girolamo, Paolo; Merighi, Adalberto

    2016-03-01

    The anatomical features distinctive to each of the very large array of species used in today's biomedical research must be born in mind when considering the correct choice of animal model(s), particularly when translational research is concerned. In this paper we take into consideration and discuss the most important anatomical and histological features of the commonest species of laboratory rodents (rat, mouse, guinea pig, hamster, and gerbil), rabbit, and pig related to their importance for applied research.

  8. Railway and road discrete choice model for foreign trade freight between Antioquia and the Port of Cartagena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. D. Pineda-Jaramillo

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Most Colombian freight is transported on roads with barely acceptable conditions, and although there is a speculation about the need for a railway for freight transportation, there is not a study in Colombia showing the variables that influence the modal choice by the companies that generate freight transportation. This article presents the calculation of demand for a hypothetical railway through a discrete choice model. It begins with a qualitative research through focus group techniques to identify the variables that influence the choice of persons responsible for the transportation of large commercial companies in Antioquia (Colombia. The influential variables in the election were the cost and service frequency, and these variables were used to apply a Stated Preference (SP and Revealed Preference (RP survey, then to calibrate a Multinomial Logit Model (MNL, and to estimate the influence of each of them. We show that the probability of railway choice by the studied companies varies between 67% and 93%, depending on differences in these variables.

  9. Impact of modeling Choices on Inventory and In-Cask Criticality Calculations for Forsmark 3 BWR Spent Fuel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-Gonzalez, Jesus S. [Univ. Politecnica de Madrid (Spain); Ade, Brian J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Bowman, Stephen M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Gauld, Ian C. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Ilas, Germina [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Marshall, William BJ J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Simulation of boiling water reactor (BWR) fuel depletion poses a challenge for nuclide inventory validation and nuclear criticality safety analyses. This challenge is due to the complex operating conditions and assembly design heterogeneities that characterize these nuclear systems. Fuel depletion simulations and in-cask criticality calculations are affected by (1) completeness of design information, (2) variability of operating conditions needed for modeling purposes, and (3) possible modeling choices. These effects must be identified, quantified, and ranked according to their significance. This paper presents an investigation of BWR fuel depletion using a complete set of actual design specifications and detailed operational data available for five operating cycles of the Swedish BWR Forsmark 3 reactor. The data includes detailed axial profiles of power, burnup, and void fraction in a very fine temporal mesh for a GE14 (10×10) fuel assembly. The specifications of this case can be used to assess the impacts of different modeling choices on inventory prediction and in-cask criticality, specifically regarding the key parameters that drive inventory and reactivity throughout fuel burnup. This study focused on the effects of the fidelity with which power history and void fraction distributions are modeled. The corresponding sensitivity of the reactivity in storage configurations is assessed, and the impacts of modeling choices on decay heat and inventory are addressed.

  10. Testing a bioenergetics-based habitat choice model: bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus) responses to food availability and temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Using an automated shuttlebox system, we conducted patch choice experiments with 32, 8–12 g bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus) to test a behavioral energetics hypothesis of habitat choice. When patch temperature and food levels were held constant within patches but different between patches, we expected bluegill to choose patches that maximized growth based on the bioenergetic integration of food and temperature as predicted by a bioenergetics model. Alternative hypotheses were that bluegill may choose patches based only on food (optimal foraging) or temperature (behavioral thermoregulation). The behavioral energetics hypothesis was not a good predictor of short-term (from minutes to weeks) patch choice by bluegill; the behavioral thermoregulation hypothesis was the best predictor. In the short-term, food and temperature appeared to affect patch choice hierarchically; temperature was more important, although food can alter temperature preference during feeding periods. Over a 19-d experiment, mean temperatures occupied by fish offered low rations did decline as predicted by the behavioral energetics hypothesis, but the decline was less than 1.0 °C as opposed to a possible 5 °C decline. A short-term, bioenergetic response to food and temperature may be precluded by physiological costs of acclimation not considered explicitly in the behavioral energetics hypothesis.

  11. Modeling College Major Choices using Elicited Measures of Expectations and Counterfactuals. NBER Working Paper No. 15729

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arcidiacono, Peter; Hotz, V. Joseph; Kang, Songman

    2010-01-01

    The choice of a college major plays a critical role in determining the future earnings of college graduates. Students make their college major decisions in part due to the future earnings streams associated with the different majors. We survey students about what their expected earnings would be both in the major they have chosen and in…

  12. Dynamic Route Choice Modelling of the Effects of Travel Information using RP Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Moraes Ramos, G.

    2015-01-01

    Traffic congestion is experienced by a great number of travellers during peak hours and is directly influenced by travel-related decisions, such as route choice decisions. In order to minimize problems that arise from congestion, such as delays, uncertainty and environmental effects, there has been

  13. Single-parenthood by choice: Children’s socialization processes into a non-conventional family model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Poveda

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available In this article we present part of our findings from a research project focused on single-parent families by choice. The study collected data in three autonomous communities in Spain and includes interviews with mothers involved in single parent-projects (through adoption, foster parenting, assisted reproductive technologies or sexual fertilization through a known donor and their children about their family experiences, observations in different formative, associative and virtual spaces in which these families participate and a compilation of different documents on parenthood by choice. We focus on the way in which the children we have studied build their own non-conventional family model. We understand the construction of this model as a process of co-construction of the child's subjectivity in which mothers and other socializing agents play an active role.

  14. Model of Dynamic Pricing for Two Parallels Flights with Multiple Fare Classes Based on Passenger Choice Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Rusdiansyah

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Airline revenue management (ARM is one of emerging topics in transportation logistics areas. This paper discusses a problem in ARM which is dynamic pricing for two parallel flights owned by the same airline. We extended the existing model on Joint Pricing Model for Parallel Flights under passenger choice behavior in the literature. We generalized the model to consider multiple full-fare class instead of only single full-fare class. Consequently, we have to define the seat allocation for each fare class beforehand. We have combined the joint pricing model and the model of nested Expected Marginal Seat Revenue (EMSR model. To solve this hybrid model, we have developed a dynamic programming-based algorithm. We also have conducted numerical experiments to show the behavior of our model. Our experiment results have showed that the expected revenue of both flights significantly induced by the proportion of the time flexible passengers and the number of allocated seat in each full-fare class. As managerial insights, our model has proved that there is a closed relationship between demand management, which is represented by the price of each fare class, and total expected revenue considering the passenger choice behavior.

  15. Identification of smallholder farmers and pastoralists' preferences for sheep breeding traits: choice model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duguma, G; Mirkena, T; Haile, A; Okeyo, A M; Tibbo, M; Rischkowsky, B; Sölkner, J; Wurzinger, M

    2011-12-01

    Identification of breeding objective traits pertinent to specific production environments with the involvement of target beneficiaries is crucial to the success of a breed improvement program. A choice experiment was conducted in four locations representing different production systems and agro-ecologies that are habitat to four indigenous sheep breeds (Afar, Bonga, Horro and Menz) of Ethiopia with the objective of identifying farmers'/pastoralists' preferences for sheep breeding traits. Following a synthesis of secondary information and diagnostic surveys, two communities per location consisting of 60 households each having at least four breeding ewes were identified. Producers' priority attributes used in the choice sets were identified through in-depth production system studies conducted from December 2007 to March 2008. On the basis of prior information, four to seven attributes were used to design choice sets with different profiles in order to capture results that mimic real life of the different communities. The attributes and levels chosen for the sheep profile were as follows: body size (large/small), coat color (brown/white/black), tail type (good/bad) for both rams and ewes; horn (polled/horned) and libido (active/poor) for rams; and lambing interval (three lambings in 2 years/two lambings in 2 years time), mothering ability (good mother/bad mother), twinning rate (twin bearer/single bearer) and milk yield (two cups per milking/one cup per milking) for ewes. A fractional factorial design was implemented to construct the alternatives included in the choice sets. The design resulted in a randomized selection of 48 sheep profiles (24 sets) for both sexes, which were grouped into four blocks with six choice sets each. An individual respondent was presented with one of the four blocks to make his/her choices. Results indicate that producers' trait preferences were heterogeneous except for body size in rams and mothering ability in ewes where nearly

  16. On the Origin-Destination Demands Linear Programming Model for Network Revenue Management with Customer Choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Liu

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we research the problem of network revenue management with customer choice based on the Origin-Destination (O-D demands. By dividing customers into different segments according to O-D pairs, we consider a network capacity control problem where each customer chooses the open product within the segment he belongs to. Starting with a Markov Decision Process (MDP formulation, we approximate the value function with an affine function of the state vector. The affine function approximation results in a new Linear Program (LP which yields tighter bounds than the Choice-based Deterministic Linear Program (CDLP. We give a column generation procedure for solving the LP within a desired optimality tolerance and present numerical results which show the policy perform from our solution approach can outperform that from the CDLP.

  17. Mathematical models, rational choice, and the search for Cold War culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Paul

    2010-06-01

    A key feature of the social, behavioral, and biological sciences after World War II has been the widespread adoption of new mathematical techniques drawn from cybernetics, information theory, and theories of rational choice. Historians of science have typically sought to explain this adoption either by reference to military patronage, or to a characteristic Cold War culture or discursive framework strongly shaped by the concerns of national security. This essay explores several episodes in the history of game theory--a mathematical theory of rational choice--that demonstrate the limits of such explanations. Military funding was indeed critical to game theory's early development in the 1940s. However, the theory's subsequent spread across disciplines ranging from political science to evolutionary biology was the result of a diverse collection of debates about the nature of "rationality" and "choice" that marked the Cold War era. These debates are not easily reduced to the national security imperatives that have been the focus of much historiography to date.

  18. Using a topological model in psychology: Developing sense and choice categories

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mammen, Jens

    2016-01-01

    A duality of sense categories and choice categories is introduced to map two distinct but co-operating ways in which we as humans are relating actively to the world. We are sensing similarities and differences in our world of objects and persons, but we are also as bodies moving around in this wo......A duality of sense categories and choice categories is introduced to map two distinct but co-operating ways in which we as humans are relating actively to the world. We are sensing similarities and differences in our world of objects and persons, but we are also as bodies moving around...... in this world encountering, selecting, and attaching to objects beyond our sensory interactions and in this way also relating to the individual objects’ history. This duality is necessary if we shall understand man as relating to the historical depth of our natural and cultural world, and to understand our...... the gap between psychology as part of Naturwissenschaft and of Geisteswissenschaft, and at the same time establish a common frame for understanding cognition and affection, and our practical and cultural life (Mammen and Mironenko 2015). The duality of sense and choice categories can be described formally...

  19. Behavioral modeling of human choices reveals dissociable effects of physical effort and temporal delay on reward devaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein-Flügge, Miriam C; Kennerley, Steven W; Saraiva, Ana C; Penny, Will D; Bestmann, Sven

    2015-03-01

    There has been considerable interest from the fields of biology, economics, psychology, and ecology about how decision costs decrease the value of rewarding outcomes. For example, formal descriptions of how reward value changes with increasing temporal delays allow for quantifying individual decision preferences, as in animal species populating different habitats, or normal and clinical human populations. Strikingly, it remains largely unclear how humans evaluate rewards when these are tied to energetic costs, despite the surge of interest in the neural basis of effort-guided decision-making and the prevalence of disorders showing a diminished willingness to exert effort (e.g., depression). One common assumption is that effort discounts reward in a similar way to delay. Here we challenge this assumption by formally comparing competing hypotheses about effort and delay discounting. We used a design specifically optimized to compare discounting behavior for both effort and delay over a wide range of decision costs (Experiment 1). We then additionally characterized the profile of effort discounting free of model assumptions (Experiment 2). Contrary to previous reports, in both experiments effort costs devalued reward in a manner opposite to delay, with small devaluations for lower efforts, and progressively larger devaluations for higher effort-levels (concave shape). Bayesian model comparison confirmed that delay-choices were best predicted by a hyperbolic model, with the largest reward devaluations occurring at shorter delays. In contrast, an altogether different relationship was observed for effort-choices, which were best described by a model of inverse sigmoidal shape that is initially concave. Our results provide a novel characterization of human effort discounting behavior and its first dissociation from delay discounting. This enables accurate modelling of cost-benefit decisions, a prerequisite for the investigation of the neural underpinnings of effort

  20. What factor generates greater uncertainty in predicting carbon flux for North America: climate characterization or model choice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dungan, J.; Wang, W.; Micaelis, A.; Nemani, R.

    2008-12-01

    Numerous efforts have begun to characterize a variety of sources of uncertainty in carbon flux estimates from both forward-modeling and inverse modeling approaches. One source of uncertainty is structural, created by the variety of approaches taken to select and characterize the most important biogeochemical processes. To begin to explore this structural uncertainty, we have used an ensemble of well-known models including CASA (Potter et al. (1993), version 2003.04.29), LPJ (Sitch et al. (2003), version 3.1.1-0.9.02), and BGC (White et al. (2000), version 5.0) with a consistent set of inputs for the period 1982-2006 for North America. Initially, the ensemble was run using input climate data interpolated from maximum, minimum and dew-point temperatures, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, and incident daily solar radiation at stations from the National Climate Data Center's Global Summary of the Day, incorporating on average about 1900 stations. NCDC's Cooperative Summary of the Day data, available over the United States only, yielded a combined data set of approximately 9000 stations that was then used for the ensemble runs. The combined data set resulted in a significantly wetter surface than with the sparser set, resulting in noticeably larger gross primary production (GPP) estimates by models in the ensemble. Mexico and Canada remain significantly undersampled. Uncertainty due to the choice of a relatively sparse or dense station network was smaller than the structural uncertainty due to model choice.

  1. The axiom of choice

    CERN Document Server

    Jech, Thomas J

    2008-01-01

    Comprehensive in its selection of topics and results, this self-contained text examines the relative strengths and consequences of the axiom of choice. Each chapter contains several problems, graded according to difficulty, and concludes with some historical remarks.An introduction to the use of the axiom of choice is followed by explorations of consistency, permutation models, and independence. Subsequent chapters examine embedding theorems, models with finite supports, weaker versions of the axiom, and nontransferable statements. The final sections consider mathematics without choice, cardin

  2. Modelling discrete choice variables in assessment of teaching staff work satisfaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mieilă, Mihai; Popescu, Constanţa; Tudorache, Ana-Maria; Toplicianu, Valerică

    2015-01-01

    Levels of self-reported job satisfaction and motivation were measured by survey in a sample of 286 teachers. Using the discrete choice framework, the paper tries to assess the relevance of the considered indicators (demographic, social, motivational) in overall teaching work satisfaction. The findings provide evidence that job satisfaction is correlated significantly with level of university degree held by the teacher, type of secondary school where the teacher is enrolled, revenues, and salary-tasks adequacy. This is important for the Romanian economy, since the education system is expected to provide future human resources with enhanced skills and abilities.

  3. A simplified differential game model for the optimal choice of tax rate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Rong; TONG Yu-yuan; XU Jun-ying

    2004-01-01

    A classical problem on optimal choice of tax rate from the perspective of differential game approach is studied. Under some appropriate assumptions on the profit and utility functions, the open-loop Stackelberg equilibrium solution which is timedependent is obtained. Result shows that 1) the optimal strategies derived from differential game and traditional unilateral optimal control approaches are different; 2) both marginal profit rate and the market rate of interest have great effect on the equilibrium solution; and 3) the government should think about the firm's potential reaction when selecting tax rates and the timing of taxation.

  4. Portfolio choice problems an introductory survey of single and multiperiod models

    CERN Document Server

    Chapados, Nicolas

    2011-01-01

    This brief offers a broad, yet concise, coverage of portfolio choice, containing both application-oriented and academic results, along with abundant pointers to the literature for further study. It cuts through many strands of the subject, presenting not only the classical results from financial economics but also approaches originating from information theory, machine learning and operations research. This compact treatment of the topic will be valuable to students entering the field, as well as practitioners looking for a broad coverage of the topic.

  5. Reproductive fitness and dietary choice behavior of the genetic model organism Caenorhabditis elegans under semi-natural conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freyth, Katharina; Janowitz, Tim; Nunes, Frank; Voss, Melanie; Heinick, Alexander; Bertaux, Joanne; Scheu, Stefan; Paul, Rüdiger J

    2010-10-01

    Laboratory breeding conditions of the model organism C. elegans do not correspond with the conditions in its natural soil habitat. To assess the consequences of the differences in environmental conditions, the effects of air composition, medium and bacterial food on reproductive fitness and/or dietary-choice behavior of C. elegans were investigated. The reproductive fitness of C. elegans was maximal under oxygen deficiency and not influenced by a high fractional share of carbon dioxide. In media approximating natural soil structure, reproductive fitness was much lower than in standard laboratory media. In seminatural media, the reproductive fitness of C. elegans was low with the standard laboratory food bacterium E. coli (γ-Proteobacteria), but significantly higher with C. arvensicola (Bacteroidetes) and B. tropica (β-Proteobacteria) as food. Dietary-choice experiments in semi-natural media revealed a low preference of C. elegans for E. coli but significantly higher preferences for C. arvensicola and B. tropica (among other bacteria). Dietary-choice experiments under quasi-natural conditions, which were feasible by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) of bacteria, showed a high preference of C. elegans for Cytophaga-Flexibacter-Bacteroides, Firmicutes, and β-Proteobacteria, but a low preference for γ-Proteobacteria. The results show that data on C. elegans under standard laboratory conditions have to be carefully interpreted with respect to their biological significance.

  6. Processing of recognition information and additional cues: A model-based analysis of choice, confidence, and response time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Glockner

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Research on the processing of recognition information has focused on testing the recognition heuristic (RH. On the aggregate, the noncompensatory use of recognition information postulated by the RH was rejected in several studies, while RH could still account for a considerable proportion of choices. These results can be explained if either a a part of the subjects used RH or b nobody used it but its choice predictions were accidentally in line with predictions of the strategy used. In the current study, which exemplifies a new approach to model testing, we determined individuals' decision strategies based on a maximum-likelihood classification method, taking into account choices, response times and confidence ratings simultaneously. Unlike most previous studies of the RH, our study tested the RH under conditions in which we provided information about cue values of unrecognized objects (which we argue is fairly common and thus of some interest. For 77.5% of the subjects, overall behavior was best explained by a compensatory parallel constraint satisfaction (PCS strategy. The proportion of subjects using an enhanced RH heuristic (RHe was negligible (up to 7.5%; 15% of the subjects seemed to use a take the best strategy (TTB. A more-fine grained analysis of the supplemental behavioral parameters conditional on strategy use supports PCS but calls into question process assumptions for apparent users of RH, RHe, and TTB within our experimental context. Our results are consistent with previous literature highlighting the importance of individual strategy classification as compared to aggregated analyses.

  7. Tough and easy choices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Søren Bøye; Lundhede, Thomas; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

    2011-01-01

    Respondents in Stated Preference studies may be uncertain about their preferences for the good presented to them. Inspired by Wang (J Environ Econ Manag 32:219–232, 1997) we hypothesize that respondents’ stated certainty in choice increases with the utility difference between the alternative chosen...... and the best alternative to that. We test this hypothesis using data from two independent Choice Experiments both focusing on nature values. In modelling respondents’ self-reported certainty in choice, we find evidence that the stated level of certainty increases significantly as utility difference in choice...... sets increases. In addition, stated certainty increases with income. Furthermore, there is some evidence that male respondents are inherently more certain in their choices than females, and a learning effect may increase stated certainty. We find evidence of this in the first study where the good...

  8. A comparative study of drift diffusion and linear ballistic accumulator models in a reward maximization perceptual choice task

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie eGoldfarb

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available We present new findings that distinguish drift diffusion models (DDMsfrom the linear ballistic accumulator (LBA model as descriptions ofhuman behavior in a two-alternative forced-choice reward maximization(Rmax task. Previous comparisons have not considered Rmax tasks, anddifferences identified between the models' predictions have centeredon practice effects. Unlike the parameter-free optimal performancecurves of the pure DDM, the extended DDM and LBA predict families ofcurves depending on their additional parameters, and those of the LBAshow significant differences from the DDMs, especially for poorlydiscriminable stimuli that incur high error rates. Moreover, fits tobehavior reveal that the LBA and DDM provide different interpretationsof behavior as stimulus discriminability increases. Trends forthreshold setting (caution in the DDMs are consistent between fits,while in the corresponding LBA fits, thresholds interact withdistributions of starting points in a complex manner that depends uponparameter constraints. Our results suggest that reinterpretation ofLBA parameters may be necessary in modeling the Rmax paradigm.

  9. Validation of the IHE Cohort Model of Type 2 Diabetes and the impact of choice of macrovascular risk equations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Lundqvist

    Full Text Available Health-economic models of diabetes are complex since the disease is chronic, progressive and there are many diabetic complications. External validation of these models helps building trust and satisfies demands from decision makers. We evaluated the external validity of the IHE Cohort Model of Type 2 Diabetes; the impact of using alternative macrovascular risk equations; and compared the results to those from microsimulation models.The external validity of the model was analysed from 12 clinical trials and observational studies by comparing 167 predicted microvascular, macrovascular and mortality outcomes to the observed study outcomes. Concordance was examined using visual inspection of scatterplots and regression-based analysis, where an intercept of 0 and a slope of 1 indicate perfect concordance. Additional subgroup analyses were conducted on 'dependent' vs. 'independent' endpoints and microvascular vs. macrovascular vs. mortality endpoints.Visual inspection indicates that the model predicts outcomes well. The UKPDS-OM1 equations showed almost perfect concordance with observed values (slope 0.996, whereas Swedish NDR (0.952 and UKPDS-OM2 (0.899 had a slight tendency to underestimate. The R2 values were uniformly high (>0.96. There were no major differences between 'dependent' and 'independent' outcomes, nor for microvascular and mortality outcomes. Macrovascular outcomes tended to be underestimated, most so for UKPDS-OM2 and least so for NDR risk equations.External validation indicates that the IHE Cohort Model of Type 2 Diabetes has predictive accuracy in line with microsimulation models, indicating that the trade-off in accuracy using cohort simulation might not be that large. While the choice of risk equations was seen to matter, each were associated with generally reasonable results, indicating that the choice must reflect the specifics of the application. The largest variation was observed for macrovascular outcomes. There, NDR

  10. Development of the choices and acquisition of antibiotics model from a descriptive study of a lay Honduran population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crigger, Nancy J; Holcomb, Lygia; Grogan, Reina Lidylia; Vasquez, Myrna; Parchment, Chrystabel; Almendares, Juan; Lagos, Daniel

    2004-09-01

    Antibiotic resistance is a global public health problem that is accelerated by overuse and misuse of antibiotics. In today's world of increasing international travel and exchange of goods, the spread of antibiotic resistant organisms is a growing threat. Despite significant antibiotic use in developing nations, research to describe and curtail inappropriate use is limited. In this study, the investigators developed a model of antibiotic use, choices and acquisition of antibiotics model, from a study of a lay population in Honduras. A representative sample of 939 rural and urban Hondurans completed the Preguntas Para El Uso de Antibiotics questionnaire to determine how the participant made choices about antibiotic use. The study indicated that the rural participants used significantly fewer antibiotics than the urban participants and that the demographic indicators did not show a significant difference in antibiotic use in those of lower socioeconomic status. In addition, the participants reported that they seek out professional advice and care rather than self-prescribing. Implications for educational and empowerment programs based on the model are discussed.

  11. Modeling the anti-cyberbullying preferences of university students: Adaptive choice-based conjoint analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Charles E; Chen, Yvonne; Vaillancourt, Tracy; Rimas, Heather; Deal, Ken; Cunningham, Lesley J; Ratcliffe, Jenna

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive choice-based conjoint analysis was used to study the anti-cyberbullying program preferences of 1,004 university students. More than 60% reported involvement in cyberbullying as witnesses (45.7%), victims (5.7%), perpetrator-victims (4.9%), or perpetrators (4.5%). Men were more likely to report involvement as perpetrators and perpetrator-victims than were women. Students recommended advertisements featuring famous people who emphasized the impact of cyberbullying on victims. They preferred a comprehensive approach teaching skills to prevent cyberbullying, encouraging students to report incidents, enabling anonymous online reporting, and terminating the internet privileges of students involved as perpetrators. Those who cyberbully were least likely, and victims of cyberbullying were most likely, to support an approach combining prevention and consequences. Simulations introducing mandatory reporting, suspensions, or police charges predicted a substantial reduction in the support of uninvolved students, witnesses, victims, and perpetrators.

  12. Development of the Model of Decision Support for Alternative Choice in the Transportation Transit System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kabashkin Igor

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The decision support system is one of the instruments for choosing the most effective decision for cargo owner in constant fluctuated business environment. The objective of this Paper is to suggest the multiple-criteria approach for evaluation and choice the alternatives of cargo transportation in the large scale transportation transit system for the decision makers - cargo owners. The large scale transportation transit system is presented by directed finite graph. Each of 57 alternatives is represented by the set of key performance indicators Kvi and set of parameters Paj. There has been developed a two-level hierarchy system of criteria with ranging expert evaluations based on Analytic Hierarchy Process Method. The best alternatives were suggested according to this method.

  13. Using a Topological Model in Psychology: Developing Sense and Choice Categories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mammen, Jens

    2016-06-01

    A duality of sense categories and choice categories is introduced to map two distinct but co-operating ways in which we as humans are relating actively to the world. We are sensing similarities and differences in our world of objects and persons, but we are also as bodies moving around in this world encountering, selecting, and attaching to objects beyond our sensory interactions and in this way also relating to the individual objects' history. This duality is necessary if we shall understand man as relating to the historical depth of our natural and cultural world, and to understand our cognitions and affections. Our personal affections and attachments, as well as our shared cultural values are centered around objects and persons chosen as reference points and landmarks in our lives, uniting and separating, not to be understood only in terms of sensory selections. The ambition is to bridge the gap between psychology as part of Naturwissenschaft and of Geisteswissenschaft, and at the same time establish a common frame for understanding cognition and affection, and our practical and cultural life (Mammen and Mironenko 2015). The duality of sense and choice categories can be described formally using concepts from modern mathematics, primarily topology, surmounting the reductions rooted in the mechanistic concepts from Renaissance science and mathematics. The formal description is based on 11 short and simple axioms held in ordinary language and visualized with instructive figures. The axioms are bridging psychology and mathematics and not only enriching psychology but also opening for a new interpretation of parts of the foundation of mathematics and logic.

  14. Investigating the Effect of Damage Progression Model Choice on Prognostics Performance

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The success of model-based approaches to systems health management depends largely on the quality of the underly- ing models. In model-based prognostics, it is...

  15. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2010-01-01

    This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications...

  16. A copula-based closed-form binary logit choice model for accommodating spatial correlation across observational units

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhat, Chandra R.; Sener, Ipek N.

    2009-09-01

    This study focuses on accommodating spatial dependency in data indexed by geographic location. In particular, the emphasis is on accommodating spatial error correlation across observational units in binary discrete choice models. We propose a copula-based approach to spatial dependence modeling based on a spatial logit structure rather than a spatial probit structure. In this approach, the dependence between the logistic error terms of different observational units is directly accommodated using a multivariate logistic distribution based on the Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstein (FGM) copula. The approach represents a simple and powerful technique that results in a closed-form analytic expression for the joint probability of choice across observational units, and is straightforward to apply using a standard and direct maximum likelihood inference procedure. There is no simulation machinery involved, leading to substantial computation gains relative to current methods to address spatial correlation. The approach is applied to teenagers’ physical activity participation levels, a subject of considerable interest in the public health, transportation, sociology, and adolescence development fields. The results indicate that failing to accommodate heteroscedasticity and spatial correlation can lead to inconsistent and inefficient parameter estimates, as well as incorrect conclusions regarding the elasticity effects of exogenous variables.

  17. The episodic random utility model unifies time trade-off and discrete choice approaches in health state valuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig Benjamin M

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To present an episodic random utility model that unifies time trade-off and discrete choice approaches in health state valuation. Methods First, we introduce two alternative random utility models (RUMs for health preferences: the episodic RUM and the more common instant RUM. For the interpretation of time trade-off (TTO responses, we show that the episodic model implies a coefficient estimator, and the instant model implies a mean slope estimator. Secondly, we demonstrate these estimators and the differences between the estimates for 42 health states using TTO responses from the seminal Measurement and Valuation in Health (MVH study conducted in the United Kingdom. Mean slopes are estimates with and without Dolan's transformation of worse-than-death (WTD responses. Finally, we demonstrate an exploded probit estimator, an extension of the coefficient estimator for discrete choice data that accommodates both TTO and rank responses. Results By construction, mean slopes are less than or equal to coefficients, because slopes are fractions and, therefore, magnify downward errors in WTD responses. The Dolan transformation of WTD responses causes mean slopes to increase in similarity to coefficient estimates, yet they are not equivalent (i.e., absolute mean difference = 0.179. Unlike mean slopes, coefficient estimates demonstrate strong concordance with rank-based predictions (Lin's rho = 0.91. Combining TTO and rank responses under the exploded probit model improves the identification of health state values, decreasing the average width of confidence intervals from 0.057 to 0.041 compared to TTO only results. Conclusion The episodic RUM expands upon the theoretical framework underlying health state valuation and contributes to health econometrics by motivating the selection of coefficient and exploded probit estimators for the analysis of TTO and rank responses. In future MVH surveys, sample size requirements may be reduced through

  18. Food Choice Questionnaire (FCQ) revisited. Suggestions for the development of an enhanced general food motivation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fotopoulos, Christos; Krystallis, Athanasios; Vassallo, Marco; Pagiaslis, Anastasios

    2009-02-01

    Recognising the need for a more statistically robust instrument to investigate general food selection determinants, the research validates and confirms Food Choice Questionnaire (FCQ's) factorial design, develops ad hoc a more robust FCQ version and tests its ability to discriminate between consumer segments in terms of the importance they assign to the FCQ motivational factors. The original FCQ appears to represent a comprehensive and reliable research instrument. However, the empirical data do not support the robustness of its 9-factorial design. On the other hand, segmentation results at the subpopulation level based on the enhanced FCQ version bring about an optimistic message for the FCQ's ability to predict food selection behaviour. The paper concludes that some of the basic components of the original FCQ can be used as a basis for a new general food motivation typology. The development of such a new instrument, with fewer, of higher abstraction FCQ-based dimensions and fewer items per dimension, is a right step forward; yet such a step should be theory-driven, while a rigorous statistical testing across and within population would be necessary.

  19. Willingness to pay for ecosystem conservation in Alaska's Tongass National Forest: a choice modeling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evan E. Hjerpe

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Forest ecosystems contribute to human welfare in important ways, but because of the nonmarket nature of many of the goods and services produced, both markets and governments fail to optimize their production commensurate with their economic and ecological significance. Despite the recent proliferation of nonmarket environmental valuation in the literature, the incorporation of nonmarket values into public forest decision making has been limited by institutional and methodological barriers. To address this disconnect, we conducted a case study to quantify conservation values for the Tongass National Forest in a manner conducive for public forest planning. A choice experiment featuring proposed forest management alternatives with changes in critical attributes relative to their levels in the status quo was used to generate the requisite data. Econometric analysis suggests that Alaskans have strong preference for conservation management, including both preservation and ecological restoration, over status quo or exploitation management. However, there is significant heterogeneity among Alaskans in terms of bias toward the status quo depending on their socioeconomic characteristics, e.g., gender, age, place of residence, household income, whether or not they have dependent children. The findings of this study can be helpful to forest managers in the preparation of resource management plans consistent with maximization of total economic value of forest ecosystem services.

  20. Ill-founded models of consumer choice in communication about food biotechnology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scholderer, Joachim; Bredahl, Lone; Frewer, Lynn

    2000-01-01

    assumptions about attitude structure and change are identified through content analysis and interpreted in terms of established social psychological models. The majority of experts seem to assume a multiattribute utility model of attitude formation and a corresponding hierarchy-of-effects model of attitude...

  1. The role of convective model choice in calculating the climate impact of doubling CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindzen, R. S.; Hou, A. Y.; Farrell, B. F.

    1982-01-01

    The role of the parameterization of vertical convection in calculating the climate impact of doubling CO2 is assessed using both one-dimensional radiative-convective vertical models and in the latitude-dependent Hadley-baroclinic model of Lindzen and Farrell (1980). Both the conventional 6.5 K/km and the moist-adiabat adjustments are compared with a physically-based, cumulus-type parameterization. The model with parameterized cumulus convection has much less sensitivity than the 6.5 K/km adjustment model at low latitudes, a result that can be to some extent imitiated by the moist-adiabat adjustment model. However, when averaged over the globe, the use of the cumulus-type parameterization in a climate model reduces sensitivity only approximately 34% relative to models using 6.5 K/km convective adjustment. Interestingly, the use of the cumulus-type parameterization appears to eliminate the possibility of a runaway greenhouse.

  2. How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars. Part 1. Model structure, simulation of bounded rationality, and model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueller, Michel G.; Haan, Peter de [ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Natural and Social Science Interface, Universitaetstr. 22, CHN J 73.2, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland)

    2009-03-15

    This article presents an agent-based microsimulation capable of forecasting the effects of policy levers that influence individual choices of new passenger cars. The fundamental decision-making units are households distinguished by sociodemographic characteristics and car ownership. A two-stage model of individual decision processes is employed. In the first stage, individual choice sets are constructed using simple, non-compensatory rules that are based on previously owned cars. Second, decision makers evaluate alternatives in their individual choice set using a multi-attributive weighting rule. The attribute weights are based on a multinomial logit model for cross-country policy analysis in European countries. Additionally, prospect theory and the notion of mental accounting are used to model the perception of monetary values. The microsimulation forecasts actual market observations with high accuracy, both on the level of aggregate market characteristics as well as on a highly resolved level of distributions of market shares. The presented approach is useful for the assessment of policies that influence individual purchase decisions of new passenger cars; it allows accounting for a highly resolved car fleet and differentiated consumer segments. As a result, the complexity of incentive schemes can be represented and detailed structural changes can be investigated. (author)

  3. Modeling consumer choices of health plans: a comparison of two techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosko, M D; McKenna, W

    1983-01-01

    This paper has two objectives. First, we will describe how conjoint measurement, a multivariate marketing research technique, can be applied in health care marketing. Second, we will compare the validity of results from two conjoint measurement techniques--the full profile approach and the tradeoff approach. A convenience sample of 97 university students was used in the study. Fifty-two students supplied data by using the full profile approach. Each respondent provided a complete rank order of 26 profile cards which included the following ambulatory health service attributes: charge for routine visit, travel time, office hours, length of time needed to make an appointment, waiting time in physician's office, practice arrangement/freedom of physician choice, parking arrangements and type of hospital. A fractional factorial design was used to determine different attribute levels (e.g. charge for routine office visit could be set at $10, $20 or $30) for each card. Forty-five students performed ranking tasks for the trade-off approach to conjoint measurement. These respondents ranked 28 grids which represent all combinations of factors taken two at a time. From the data collected in the ranking tasks, utilities or part-worth values for each level of each attribute were estimated by using dummy variable regression. Relative importance of ambulatory service attributes was inferred from the range of utility values of the attributes. Three measures of validity were assessed--adherence of estimated utility scores to monotonic assumptions, plausability of importance rankings and comparative validity. The results from the full-profile approach satisfied all three criteria. In contrast, the tradeoff approach results satisfied the first two criteria, but its comparative validity was only marginal. Valid conjoint data can be used for: simulations of market responses to different health services configurations; market segmentation studies; and development of promotional efforts.

  4. Position in formal structure, personal characteristics and choices of advisors in a law firm : A logistic regression model for dyadic network data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lazega, E; vanDuijn, M

    1997-01-01

    This paper presents a statistical model for the analysis of binary sociometric choice data, the p(2) model, which provides a flexible way for using explanatory variables to model network structure. It is applied to examine the influence of the formal structure of an organization on interactions amon

  5. Modeling the bullying prevention program design recommendations of students from grades five to eight: a discrete choice conjoint experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Charles E; Vaillancourt, Tracy; Cunningham, Lesley J; Chen, Yvonne; Ratcliffe, Jenna

    2011-01-01

    We used a discrete choice conjoint experiment to model the bullying prevention recommendations of 845 students from grades 5 to 8 (aged 9-14). Students made choices between experimentally varied combinations of 14 four-level prevention program attributes. Latent class analysis yielded three segments. The high impact segment (27.1%) recommended uniforms, mandatory recess activities, four playground supervisors, surveillance cameras, and 4-day suspensions when students bully. The moderate impact segment (49.5%) recommended discretionary uniforms and recess activities, four playground supervisors, and 3-day suspensions. Involvement as a bully or bully-victim was associated with membership in a low impact segment (23.4%) that rejected uniforms and surveillance cameras. They recommended fewer anti-bullying activities, discretionary recess activities, fewer playground supervisors, and the 2-day suspensions. Simulations predicted most students would recommend a program maximizing student involvement combining prevention with moderate consequences. The simulated introduction of mandatory uniforms, surveillance cameras, and long suspensions reduced overall support for a comprehensive program, particularly among students involved as bullies or bully-victims.

  6. On the choice of calibration periods and objective functions: A practical guide to model parameter identification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanowicz, Renata; Osuch, Marzena; Grabowiecka, Magdalena

    2013-12-01

    Despite the development of new measuring techniques, monitoring systems and advances in computer technology, rainfall-flow modelling is still a challenge. The reasons are multiple and fairly well known. They include the distributed, heterogeneous nature of the environmental variables affecting flow from the catchment. These are precipitation, evapotranspiration and in some seasons and catchments in Poland, snow melt also. This paper presents a review of work done on the calibration and validation of rainfall-runoff modelling, with a focus on the conceptual HBV model. We give a synthesis of the problems and propose a practical guide to the calibration and validation of rainfall-runoff models.

  7. I'll Have What She's Having: The Impact of Model Characteristics on Children's Food Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frazier, Brandy N.; Gelman, Susan A.; Kaciroti, Niko; Russell, Joshua W.; Lumeng, Julie C.

    2012-01-01

    This research investigates children's use of social categories in their food selection. Across three studies, we presented preschoolers with sets of photographs that contrasted food-eating models with different characteristics, including model gender, race (Black, White), age (child or adult), and/or expression (acceptance or rejection of the…

  8. Impact of template choice on homology model efficiency in virtual screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rataj, Krzysztof; Witek, Jagna; Mordalski, Stefan; Kosciolek, Tomasz; Bojarski, Andrzej J

    2014-06-23

    Homology modeling is a reliable method of predicting the three-dimensional structures of proteins that lack NMR or X-ray crystallographic data. It employs the assumption that a structural resemblance exists between closely related proteins. Despite the availability of many crystal structures of possible templates, only the closest ones are chosen for homology modeling purposes. To validate the aforementioned approach, we performed homology modeling of four serotonin receptors (5-HT1AR, 5-HT2AR, 5-HT6R, 5-HT7R) for virtual screening purposes, using 10 available G-Protein Coupled Receptors (GPCR) templates with diverse evolutionary distances to the targets, with various approaches to alignment construction and model building. The resulting models were further validated in two steps by means of ligand docking and enrichment calculation, using Glide software. The final quality of the models was determined in virtual screening-like experiments by the AUROC score of the resulting ROC curves. The outcome of this research showed that no correlation between sequence identity and model quality was found, leading to the conclusion that the closest phylogenetic relative is not always the best template for homology modeling.

  9. A Behavioural Model of Traffic Congestion: Endogenizing Speed Choice, Traffic Safety and Time Losses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhoef, E.T.; Rouwendal, J.

    2004-01-01

    Conventional economic models of traffic congestion assume that the relation between traffic flow and speed is a technical one. This paper develops a behavioural model of traffic congestion, in which drivers optimize their speeds by trading off time costs, expected accident costs and fuel costs. Sinc

  10. Cognitive Models of Risky Choice: Parameter Stability and Predictive Accuracy of Prospect Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glockner, Andreas; Pachur, Thorsten

    2012-01-01

    In the behavioral sciences, a popular approach to describe and predict behavior is cognitive modeling with adjustable parameters (i.e., which can be fitted to data). Modeling with adjustable parameters allows, among other things, measuring differences between people. At the same time, parameter estimation also bears the risk of overfitting. Are…

  11. Presenting Thin Media Models Affects Women's Choice of Diet or Normal Snacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krahe, Barbara; Krause, Christina

    2010-01-01

    Our study explored the influence of thin- versus normal-size media models and of self-reported restrained eating behavior on women's observed snacking behavior. Fifty female undergraduates saw a set of advertisements for beauty products showing either thin or computer-altered normal-size female models, allegedly as part of a study on effective…

  12. A disaggregate freight transport model of transport chain and shipment size choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Windisch, E.; De Jong, G.C.; Van Nes, R.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.

    2010-01-01

    The field of freight transport modelling is relatively young compared to passenger transport modelling. However, some key issues in freight policy, like growing freight shares on the road, advanced logistics concepts or emerging strict freight transport regulations, have been creating increasing dem

  13. Disaggregate Traffic Mode Choice Model Based on Combination of Revealed and Stated Preference Data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIAO Pengpeng; LU Huapu; YANG Lang

    2006-01-01

    The conventional traffic demand forecasting methods based on revealed preference (RP) data are not able to predict the modal split. Passengers' stated intentions are indispensable for modal split forecasting and evaluation of new traffic modes. This paper analyzed the biases and errors included in stated preference data, put forward the new stochastic utility functions, and proposed an unbiased disaggregate model and its approximate model based on the combination of RP and stated preference (SP) data, with analysis of the parameter estimation algorithm. The model was also used to forecast rail transit passenger volumes to the Beijing Capital International Airport and the shift ratios from current traffic modes to rail transit. Experimental results show that the model can greatly increase forecasting accuracy of the modal split ratio of current traffic modes and can accurately forecast the shift ratios from current modes to the new mode.

  14. From Occasional Choices to Inevitable Musts: A Computational Model of Nicotine Addiction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selin Metin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Although, there are considerable works on the neural mechanisms of reward-based learning and decision making, and most of them mention that addiction can be explained by malfunctioning in these cognitive processes, there are very few computational models. This paper focuses on nicotine addiction, and a computational model for nicotine addiction is proposed based on the neurophysiological basis of addiction. The model compromises different levels ranging from molecular basis to systems level, and it demonstrates three different possible behavioral patterns which are addict, nonaddict, and indecisive. The dynamical behavior of the proposed model is investigated with tools used in analyzing nonlinear dynamical systems, and the relation between the behavioral patterns and the dynamics of the system is discussed.

  15. Independence and interdependence in collective decision making: an agent-based model of nest-site choice by honeybee swarms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    List, Christian; Elsholtz, Christian; Seeley, Thomas D

    2009-03-27

    Condorcet's jury theorem shows that when the members of a group have noisy but independent information about what is best for the group as a whole, majority decisions tend to outperform dictatorial ones. When voting is supplemented by communication, however, the resulting interdependencies between decision makers can strengthen or undermine this effect: they can facilitate information pooling, but also amplify errors. We consider an intriguing non-human case of independent information pooling combined with communication: the case of nest-site choice by honeybee (Apis mellifera) swarms. It is empirically well documented that when there are different nest sites that vary in quality, the bees usually choose the best one. We develop a new agent-based model of the bees' decision process and show that its remarkable reliability stems from a particular interplay of independence and interdependence between the bees.

  16. The Mouse Solitary Odorant Receptor Gene Promoters as Models for the Study of Odorant Receptor Gene Choice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Degl'Innocenti

    Full Text Available In vertebrates, several anatomical regions located within the nasal cavity mediate olfaction. Among these, the main olfactory epithelium detects most conventional odorants. Olfactory sensory neurons, provided with cilia exposed to the air, detect volatile chemicals via an extremely large family of seven-transmembrane chemoreceptors named odorant receptors. Their genes are expressed in a monogenic and monoallelic fashion: a single allele of a single odorant receptor gene is transcribed in a given mature neuron, through a still uncharacterized molecular mechanism known as odorant receptor gene choice.Odorant receptor genes are typically arranged in genomic clusters, but a few are isolated (we call them solitary from the others within a region broader than 1 Mb upstream and downstream with respect to their transcript's coordinates. The study of clustered genes is problematic, because of redundancy and ambiguities in their regulatory elements: we propose to use the solitary genes as simplified models to understand odorant receptor gene choice.Here we define number and identity of the solitary genes in the mouse genome (C57BL/6J, and assess the conservation of the solitary status in some mammalian orthologs. Furthermore, we locate their putative promoters, predict their homeodomain binding sites (commonly present in the promoters of odorant receptor genes and compare candidate promoter sequences with those of wild-caught mice. We also provide expression data from histological sections.In the mouse genome there are eight intact solitary genes: Olfr19 (M12, Olfr49, Olfr266, Olfr267, Olfr370, Olfr371, Olfr466, Olfr1402; five are conserved as solitary in rat. These genes are all expressed in the main olfactory epithelium of three-day-old mice. The C57BL/6J candidate promoter of Olfr370 has considerably varied compared to its wild-type counterpart. Within the putative promoter for Olfr266 a homeodomain binding site is predicted. As a whole, our findings

  17. 考虑偏好差异与备选方案相关性的居民出行方式选择模型%Travel Mode Choice Model Accounting for Individual Preference Heterogeneity and Correlation among Choice Alternatives

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨励雅; 赵鹏军

    2012-01-01

    为克服传统logit模型的ⅡA缺陷,构建合适的居民出行方式选择模型.尝试结合广义极值模型与潜在类别模型,选取出行费用、出行时间、停车费用及等待时间等作为方式选择效用变量,选取个人收入、出行目的与出行距离作为类属函数变量,构建一种区分潜在类别的配对巢式logit模型,该模型能同时刻画备选方式之间的相关性以及出行者的偏好差异.利用2005年北京市第三次居民出行调查数据,对模型参数进行估计和检验.参数估计结果表明:1)相较于传统MNL模型与不区分潜在类别的配对巢式logit模型,区分潜在类别的配对巢式logit模型具有更优的统计学特征;2)对出行费用敏感的出行者比例大于对出行时间敏感的出行者比例,提供交通服务时,降低费用将比缩短时间更为有效.%The authors proposed a new travel mode choice model to overcome the limitation of traditional logit model. Combining generalized extreme value model and latent class model, the authors present a modeling methodology capable of accounting for individual preference heterogeneity and correlation across choice alternatives. Travel cost, travel time, parking fee, and waiting time are defined as utility variables for mode choice, while individual income, travel purpose, and travel distance are selected as variables of segment membership function. This model can depict the correlation among choice alternatives and individual preference heterogeneity simultaneously. Using Beijing traffic survey data of 2005, the model parameters are estimated. Estimation results show that the latent class paired nested logit model outperforms the traditional models. Most travelers are cost-sensitive to travel modes, and thus strategies that reduce the travel cost can be more effective than reducing the travel time.

  18. Role of numerical scheme choice on the results of mathematical modeling of combustion and detonation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yakovenko, I. S.; Kiverin, A. D.; Pinevich, S. G.; Ivanov, M. F.

    2016-11-01

    The present study discusses capabilities of dissipation-free CABARET numerical method application to unsteady reactive gasdynamic flows modeling. In framework of present research the method was adopted for reactive flows governed by real gas equation of state and applied for several typical problems of unsteady gas dynamics and combustion modeling such as ignition and detonation initiation by localized energy sources. Solutions were thoroughly analyzed and compared with that derived by using of the modified Euler-Lagrange method of “coarse” particles. Obtained results allowed us to distinguish range of phenomena where artificial effects of numerical approach may counterfeit their physical nature and to develop guidelines for numerical approach selection appropriate for unsteady reactive gasdynamic flows numerical modeling.

  19. A model of reward choice based on the theory of reinforcement learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smirnitskaya, I A; Frolov, A A; Merzhanova, G Kh

    2008-03-01

    A model explaining behavioral "impulsivity" and "self-control" is proposed on the basis of the theory of reinforcement learning. The discount coefficient gamma, which in this theory accounts for the subjective reduction in the value of a delayed reinforcement, is identified with the overall level of dopaminergic neuron activity which, according to published data, also determines the behavioral variant. Computer modeling showed that high values of gamma are characteristic of predominantly "self-controlled" subjects, while smaller values of gamma are characteristic of "impulsive" subjects.

  20. Choice of blood rheology model has minor impact on computational assessment of shear stress mediated vascular risk

    CERN Document Server

    Bernabeu, Miguel O; Groen, Derek; Carver, Hywel B; Hetherington, James; Krüger, Timm; Coveney, Peter V

    2012-01-01

    Perturbations to the homeostatic distribution of mechanical forces exerted by blood on the endothelial layer have been correlated with vascular pathologies including intracranial aneurysms and atherosclerosis. Recent computational work suggests that in order to correctly characterise such forces, the shear-thinning properties of blood must be taken into account. To the best of our knowledge, these findings have never been compared against experimentally observed pathological thresholds. In the current work, we apply the three-band diagram (TBD) analysis due to Gizzi et al. to assess the impact of the choice of blood rheology model on a computational model of the right middle cerebral artery. Our results show that the differences between the wall shear stress predicted by a Newtonian model and the well known Carreau-Yasuda generalized Newtonian model are only significant if the vascular pathology under study is associated with a pathological threshold in the range 0.94 Pa to 1.56 Pa, where the results of the T...

  1. Optimal technology choice and investment timing: A stochastic model of industrial cogeneration vs. heat-only production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wickart, Marcel [Centre for Energy Policy and Economics (CEPE), Department of Management, Technology, and Economics, ETH Zurich, Zurichbergstrasse 18 (ZUE E), 8032 Zurich (Switzerland); Madlener, Reinhard [Centre for Energy Policy and Economics (CEPE), Department of Management, Technology, and Economics, ETH Zurich, Zurichbergstrasse 18 (ZUE E), 8032 Zurich (Switzerland) and DIW Berlin, Department of Information Society and Competition, Koenigin-Luise-Strasse 5, 14195 Berlin (Germany)]. E-mail: rmadlener@ethz.ch

    2007-07-15

    In this paper we develop an economic model that explains the decision-making problem under uncertainty of an industrial firm that wants to invest in a process technology. More specifically, the decision is between making an irreversible investment in a combined heat-and-power production (cogeneration) system, or to invest in a conventional heat-only generation system (steam boiler) and to purchase all electricity from the grid. In our model we include the main economic and technical variables of the investment decision process. We also account for the risk and uncertainty inherent in volatile energy prices that can greatly affect the valuation of the investment project. The dynamic stochastic model presented allows us to simultaneously determine the optimal technology choice and investment timing. We apply the theoretical model and illustrate our main findings with a numerical example that is based on realistic cost values for industrial oil- or gas-fired cogeneration and heat-only generation in Switzerland. We also briefly discuss expected effects of a CO{sub 2} tax on the investment decision.

  2. MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF DECISIONMAKING SYSTEM INTEGRATION IN THE MULTIPLE CHOICE ALTERNATIVES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Halizev V. N.

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the models and the methods of the market of the proposed sub-systems and equipment, based on the analysis of the requirements for security to choose the best solution for the synthesis of the integrated security system

  3. Modelling public transport route choice, with multiple access and egress modes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brands, T.; Romph, de E.; Veitch, T.; Cook, J.

    2014-01-01

    Public transport (PT) is important, because the current traffic system faces well known problems like congestion, environmental impact and use of public space. To be able to assess the effects of policy measures properly, it is necessary to model the behavior of the (PT) traveler in a realistic way.

  4. Model and measurement methodology for the analysis of consumer choice of foods products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Wierenga (Berend)

    1983-01-01

    textabstractThe consumer can be conceived as an imperfect problem solver. Consumer behavior with respect to food products is purposive, but the consumer is bounded by limitations of information, cognitive skills, memory and time. From this starting point, this paper develops a model of the process b

  5. The Role of Preference Axioms and Respondent Behaviour in Statistical Models for Discrete Choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hougaard, Jens Leth; Tjur, Tue; Østerdal, Lars Peter

    , ordering effects, dominance, etc. Unfortunatelythere seems to be some confusion about what is actually being tested,and the link between the statistical tests performed and the relevantunderlying model of respondent behaviour has not been explored inthis literature. The present paper tries to clarify...

  6. Modeling Choices in Nuclear Warfighting: Two Classroom Simulations on Escalation and Retaliation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schofield, Julian

    2013-01-01

    Two classroom simulations--"Superpower Confrontation" and "Multipolar Asian Simulation"--are used to teach and test various aspects of the Borden versus Brodie debate on the Schelling versus Lanchester approach to nuclear conflict modeling and resolution. The author applies a Schelling test to segregate high from low empathic students, and assigns…

  7. A conceptual model of channel choice : measuring online and offline shopping value perceptions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broekhuizen, Thijs L.J.; Jager, Wander

    2004-01-01

    This study tries to understand how consumers evaluate channels for their purchasing. Specifically, it develops a conceptual model that addresses consumer value perceptions of using the Internet versus the traditional (physical) channel. Previous research showed that perceptions of price, product qua

  8. Bayesian model choice and search strategies for mapping interacting quantitative trait Loci.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Nengjun; Xu, Shizhong; Allison, David B

    2003-01-01

    Most complex traits of animals, plants, and humans are influenced by multiple genetic and environmental factors. Interactions among multiple genes play fundamental roles in the genetic control and evolution of complex traits. Statistical modeling of interaction effects in quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis must accommodate a very large number of potential genetic effects, which presents a major challenge to determining the genetic model with respect to the number of QTL, their positions, and their genetic effects. In this study, we use the methodology of Bayesian model and variable selection to develop strategies for identifying multiple QTL with complex epistatic patterns in experimental designs with two segregating genotypes. Specifically, we develop a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to determine the number of QTL and to select main and epistatic effects. With the proposed method, we can jointly infer the genetic model of a complex trait and the associated genetic parameters, including the number, positions, and main and epistatic effects of the identified QTL. Our method can map a large number of QTL with any combination of main and epistatic effects. Utility and flexibility of the method are demonstrated using both simulated data and a real data set. Sensitivity of posterior inference to prior specifications of the number and genetic effects of QTL is investigated. PMID:14573494

  9. Reciprocal Markov Modeling of Feedback Mechanisms Between Emotion and Dietary Choice Using Experience-Sampling Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Ji; Pan, Junhao; Zhang, Qiang; Dubé, Laurette; Ip, Edward H

    2015-01-01

    With intensively collected longitudinal data, recent advances in the experience-sampling method (ESM) benefit social science empirical research, but also pose important methodological challenges. As traditional statistical models are not generally well equipped to analyze a system of variables that contain feedback loops, this paper proposes the utility of an extended hidden Markov model to model reciprocal the relationship between momentary emotion and eating behavior. This paper revisited an ESM data set (Lu, Huet, & Dube, 2011) that observed 160 participants' food consumption and momentary emotions 6 times per day in 10 days. Focusing on the analyses on feedback loop between mood and meal-healthiness decision, the proposed reciprocal Markov model (RMM) can accommodate both hidden ("general" emotional states: positive vs. negative state) and observed states (meal: healthier, same or less healthy than usual) without presuming independence between observations and smooth trajectories of mood or behavior changes. The results of RMM analyses illustrated the reciprocal chains of meal consumption and mood as well as the effect of contextual factors that moderate the interrelationship between eating and emotion. A simulation experiment that generated data consistent with the empirical study further demonstrated that the procedure is promising in terms of recovering the parameters.

  10. What, Where, and Which? A Nested Logit Model for Dutch Housing Choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blijie, B.; De Vries, J.J.

    2006-01-01

    In the Netherlands, changes on the housing market and overloading of the transport system require a policy that pays attention to both sides of the coin. To make projections of possible scenarios, under different policies, models are developed to study the transport system, the housing market and th

  11. Reciprocal Markov modeling of feedback mechanisms between emotion and dietary choice using experience sampling data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Ji; Pan, Junhao; Zhang, Qiang; Dubé, Laurette; Ip, Edward H.

    2015-01-01

    With intensively collected longitudinal data, recent advances in Experience Sampling Method (ESM) benefit social science empirical research, but also pose important methodological challenges. As traditional statistical models are not generally well-equipped to analyze a system of variables that contain feedback loops, this paper proposes the utility of an extended hidden Markov model to model reciprocal relationship between momentary emotion and eating behavior. This paper revisited an ESM data set (Lu, Huet & Dube, 2011) that observed 160 participants’ food consumption and momentary emotions six times per day in 10 days. Focusing on the analyses on feedback loop between mood and meal healthiness decision, the proposed Reciprocal Markov Model (RMM) can accommodate both hidden (“general” emotional states: positive vs. negative state) and observed states (meal: healthier, same or less healthy than usual) without presuming independence between observations and smooth trajectories of mood or behavior changes. The results of RMM analyses illustrated the reciprocal chains of meal consumption and mood as well as the effect of contextual factors that moderate the interrelationship between eating and emotion. A simulation experiment that generated data consistent to the empirical study further demonstrated that the procedure is promising in terms of recovering the parameters. PMID:26717120

  12. The Physics of Optimal Decision Making: A Formal Analysis of Models of Performance in Two-Alternative Forced-Choice Tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogacz, Rafal; Brown, Eric; Moehlis, Jeff; Holmes, Philip; Cohen, Jonathan D.

    2006-01-01

    In this article, the authors consider optimal decision making in two-alternative forced-choice (TAFC) tasks. They begin by analyzing 6 models of TAFC decision making and show that all but one can be reduced to the drift diffusion model, implementing the statistically optimal algorithm (most accurate for a given speed or fastest for a given…

  13. Modeling the Joint Choice Decisions on Urban Shopping Destination and Travel-to-Shop Mode: A Comparative Study of Different Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuan Ding

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The joint choice of shopping destination and travel-to-shop mode in downtown area is described by making use of the cross-nested logit (CNL model structure that allows for potential interalternative correlation along the both choice dimensions. Meanwhile, the traditional multinomial logit (MNL model and nested logit (NL model are also formulated, respectively. This study uses the data collected in the downtown areas of Maryland-Washington, D.C. region, for shopping trips, considering household, individual, land use, and travel related characteristics. The results of the model reveal the significant influencing factors on joint choice travel behavior between shopping destination and travel mode. A comparison of the different models shows that the proposed CNL model structure offers significant improvements in capturing unobserved correlations between alternatives over MNL model and NL model. Moreover, a Monte Carlo simulation for a group of scenarios assuming that there is an increase in parking fees in downtown area is undertaken to examine the impact of a change in car travel cost on the joint choice of shopping destination and travel mode switching. The results are expected to give a better understanding on the shopping travel behavior.

  14. Bargaining for the Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model

    OpenAIRE

    Klein, Martin

    1991-01-01

    This paper focuses on two questions. First, under what conditions would two countries agree to hold their bilateral cross exchange rate fixed? and second, what allocation of intervention duties would this require? Answers to these questions are sought by combining a standard macroeconomic model of an open economy with the solution concepts of fixed-threat bargaining games. It is shown that for reasonable parameter values the core of the bargaining game implied by this set-up is non-empty, so ...

  15. The Drift Diffusion Model can account for the accuracy and reaction time of value-based choices under high and low time pressure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milica Milosavljevic

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available An important open problem is how values are compared to make simple choices. A natural hypothesis is that the brain carries out the computations associated with the value comparisons in a manner consistent with the Drift Diffusion Model (DDM, since this model has been able to account for a large amount of data in other domains. We investigated the ability of four different versions of the DDM to explain the data in a real binary food choice task under conditions of high and low time pressure. We found that a seven-parameter version of the DDM can account for the choice and reaction time data with high-accuracy, in both the high and low time pressure conditions. The changes associated with the introduction of time pressure could be traced to changes in two key model parameters: the barrier height and the noise in the slope of the drift process.

  16. Choice & Consequence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Azam

    between cause and effect in complex systems complicates decision making. To address this issue, we examine the central role that data-driven decision making could play in critical domains such as sustainability or medical treatment. We developed systems for exploratory data analysis and data visualization...... of data analysis and instructional interface design, to both simulation systems and decision support interfaces. We hope that projects such as these will help people to understand the link between their choices and the consequences of their decisions....

  17. Choosing a Virtual World Platform for Teaching: “VICERO” - A Scoring Model Aiding the Right Choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Erenli

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available When asking which Virtual World to use for educational purposes, people most often want to hear a one- sentence answer. Frequently the question leads to a discussion that can be compared to a debate about religion: you cannot be too sure which side you will choose but you are easily doomed from the beginning if you pick the wrong side (or in this case, platform. To help educators pick the right Virtual World platform we have developed a Scoring Model and Criteria Catalogue which support choosing the most suitable platform for teaching purposes. Educators can use the Scoring Model to rate the criteria based on their respective demand. The Scoring Model will then suggest a Virtual World platform from a “long list” and instruct the educator how to install/use/maintain the platform. Thus educators will not be left alone with their choice and will get a motivational hint where to start and where to seek support. The “long list” is monitored and updated regularly so that selections are always up-to-date.

  18. Modelling choice and reaction time during arbitrary visuomotor learning through the coordination of adaptive working memory andreinforcement learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume eViejo

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Current learning theory provides a comprehensive description of how we and other animalslearn, and places behavioral flexibility and automaticity at heart of adaptive behaviors. However, the computations supporting the interactions between goal-directed and habitual decision-making systems are still poorly understood. Previous functional magnetic resonance imaging(fMRI results suggest that the brain hosts complementary computations that may differentiallysupport goal-directed and habitual processes in the form of a dynamical interplay rather than aserial recruitment of strategies. To better elucidate the computations underlying flexible behavior, we develop a dual-system computational model which can predict both performance (i.e.,participants’ choices and modulations in reaction times during learning of a stimulus-response association task. The habitual system is modelled with a simple Q-learning algorithm (QL.For the goal-directed system, we propose a new Bayesian Working Memory (BWM modelwhich searches for information in the history of previous trials in order to minimize Shannonentropy. We propose a model for QL and BWM coordination such that the expensive memorymanipulation is under control of, among others, the level of convergence of the habitual learning.We test the ability of QL or BWM alone to explain human behavior, and compare them with theperformance of model combinations, to highlight the need for such combinations to explainbehavior. Two of the tested combination models are derived from the literature, the latter beingour new proposal. In conclusion, all subjects were better explained by model combinations, andthe majority of them by our new coordination proposal.

  19. Musical Electroacupuncture May Be a Better Choice than Electroacupuncture in a Mouse Model of Alzheimer's Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Jing; Liu, Gang

    2016-01-01

    Objectives. To compare musical electroacupuncture and electroacupuncture in a mouse model of Alzheimer's disease. Methods. In this study, 7.5-month-old male senescence-accelerated mouse prone 8 (SAMP8) mice were used as an Alzheimer's disease animal model. In the normal control paradigm, 7.5-month-old male SAMR1 mice were used as the blank control group (N group). After 15 days of treatment, using Morris water maze test, micro-PET, and immunohistochemistry, the differences among the musical electroacupuncture (MEA), electroacupuncture (EA), Alzheimer's disease (AD), and normal (N) groups were assessed. Results. The Morris water maze test, micro-PET, and immunohistochemistry revealed that MEA and EA therapies could improve spatial learning and memory ability, glucose metabolism level in the brain, and Aβ amyloid content in the frontal lobe, compared with the AD group (P therapy performed better than EA treatment in decreasing amyloid-beta levels in the frontal lobe of mice with AD. Conclusion. MEA therapy may be superior to EA in treating Alzheimer's disease as demonstrated in SAMP8 mice. PMID:27974974

  20. Step out the Paradox of Livable City Studies:Conceptual Model and Path Choice

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Based on a comparative analysis on the concepts and standards of livable city in China and abroad,the paper creates a conceptual model and a fundamental formula for livable city development with economic development as the foundation,and the social and cultural conditions,the ecological status,and the city governance as three pillars,so as to provide a theoretical explanation for the two paradoxes of livable city.The paper suggests that China should choose Path C,which combines economic development with city livability.It also analyzes the development rules of livable city under Path C,and talks about the fundamental ideas of livable city construction under the current circumstances in China.In the end,the paper puts forward related planning strategies in terms of spatial structure,ecological environment,cultural construction,transportation system,and housing system,in order to establish a livable city development model that is suitable for China’s practical conditions.

  1. Gas chromatographic quantitative analysis of methanol in wine: operative conditions, optimization and calibration model choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caruso, Rosario; Gambino, Grazia Laura; Scordino, Monica; Sabatino, Leonardo; Traulo, Pasqualino; Gagliano, Giacomo

    2011-12-01

    The influence of the wine distillation process on methanol content has been determined by quantitative analysis using gas chromatographic flame ionization (GC-FID) detection. A comparative study between direct injection of diluted wine and injection of distilled wine was performed. The distillation process does not affect methanol quantification in wines in proportions higher than 10%. While quantification performed on distilled samples gives more reliable results, a screening method for wine injection after a 1:5 water dilution could be employed. The proposed technique was found to be a compromise between the time consuming distillation process and direct wine injection. In the studied calibration range, the stability of the volatile compounds in the reference solution is concentration-dependent. The stability is higher in the less concentrated reference solution. To shorten the operation time, a stronger temperature ramp and carrier flow rate was employed. With these conditions, helium consumption and column thermal stress were increased. However, detection limits, calibration limits, and analytical method performances are not affected substantially by changing from normal to forced GC conditions. Statistical data evaluation were made using both ordinary (OLS) and bivariate least squares (BLS) calibration models. Further confirmation was obtained that limit of detection (LOD) values, calculated according to the 3sigma approach, are lower than the respective Hubaux-Vos (H-V) calculation method. H-V LOD depends upon background noise, calibration parameters and the number of reference standard solutions employed in producing the calibration curve. These remarks are confirmed by both calibration models used.

  2. Encouraging Sustainable Transport Choices in American Households: Results from an Empirically Grounded Agent-Based Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Davide Natalini

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The transport sector needs to go through an extended process of decarbonisation to counter the threat of climate change. Unfortunately, the International Energy Agency forecasts an enormous growth in the number of cars and greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Two issues can thus be identified: (1 the need for a new methodology that could evaluate the policy performances ex-ante and (2 the need for more effective policies. To help address these issues, we developed an Agent-Based Model called Mobility USA aimed at: (1 testing whether this could be an effective approach in analysing ex-ante policy implementation in the transport sector; and (2 evaluating the effects of alternative policy scenarios on commuting behaviours in the USA. Particularly, we tested the effects of two sets of policies, namely market-based and preference-change ones. The model results suggest that this type of agent-based approach will provide a useful tool for testing policy interventions and their effectiveness.

  3. Habitat Choice and Speciation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sophie E. Webster

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The role of habitat choice in reproductive isolation and ecological speciation has often been overlooked, despite acknowledgement of its ability to facilitate local adaptation. It can form part of the speciation process through various evolutionary mechanisms, yet where habitat choice has been included in models of ecological speciation little thought has been given to these underlying mechanisms. Here, we propose and describe three independent criteria underlying ten different evolutionary scenarios in which habitat choice may promote or maintain local adaptation. The scenarios are the result of all possible combinations of the independent criteria, providing a conceptual framework in which to discuss examples which illustrate each scenario. These examples show that the different roles of habitat choice in ecological speciation have rarely been effectively distinguished. Making such distinctions is an important challenge for the future, allowing better experimental design, stronger inferences and more meaningful comparisons among systems. We show some of the practical difficulties involved by reviewing the current evidence for the role of habitat choice in local adaptation and reproductive isolation in the intertidal gastropod Littorina saxatilis, a model system for the study of ecological speciation, assessing whether any of the proposed scenarios can be reliably distinguished, given current research.

  4. Don’t Work, Work at Home, or Commute? Discrete Choice Models of the Decision for San Francisco Bay Area Residents

    OpenAIRE

    Ory, D T; Mokhtarian, Patricia L

    2005-01-01

    Using socio-demographic, personality, and attitudinal data from 1,680 residents of the San Francisco Bay Area, we develop and estimate binary, multinomial, and nested logit models of the choice to work or not, whether or not to work at home, and whether to commute all of the time or some of the time (either by only working part time, or by working a compressed work week, or by telecommuting some of the time). To our knowledge, these are the first models of all these choices simultaneously. Th...

  5. Five choice serial reaction time performance in the HdhQ92 mouse model of Huntington's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trueman, R C; Dunnett, S B; Jones, L; Brooks, S P

    2012-06-01

    Huntington's disease is an autosomal dominant genetic disorder, with motor, cognitive and psychiatric symptoms. To date there is no cure. In order to understand better this disease and to develop novel treatments, many genetically modified animal models of Huntington's disease have been created. However, to utilize these models fully, appropriate functional assays need to be developed for behavioural assessments of the mice. Various facets of attention have been reported to be affected in Huntington's disease patients, and the Hdh(Q92/Q92) mice have been shown to have deficits on operant tasks which have attentional components. In the present study, the Hdh(Q92/Q92) mouse model is assessed on a well established test of attentional function, the operant 5-choice serial reaction time task (5-CSRT), in which the mice must respond with a nose poke to light stimuli presented randomly across a 5 hole light array to receive a reward. In the present paper, the Hdh(Q92/Q92) mice exhibited deficits on the 5-CSRT when pseudorandomly presented with stimuli of different durations. However, alterations in the pacing of the task, therefore requiring an increase in sustained attention, did not affect the Hdh(Q92/Q92) mice more than their wildtype littermates. This study indicates that the Hdh(Q92/Q92) mice may have deficits in aspects of attentional function, in particular disruption in the ability to maintain attention in the visuospatial domain, suggesting that this knock-in mouse model of Huntington's disease may be a relevant model of the disease for the testing of novel therapeutic interventions.

  6. Policy Choice for Urban Low-carbon transportation in Beijing: Scenario Analysis Based on LEAP model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yu

    2016-04-01

    Beijing is a fast developing megacity with serious traffic problems, such as high energy consumption, high CO2 emission and traffic congestion. The coming 13th Five-Year Plan for Beijing economic and social development will focus on the low-carbon transportation policy to achieve the urban traffic sustainable development. In order to improve the feasibility of urban low-carbon transportation policies, this paper analyzes the future trends of CO2 emissions from transportation of Beijing. Firstly, five policies scenarios are developed according to the coming Beijing 13th Five-Year Plan, including the "Business As Usual (BAU)", the "Public Transportation Priority(PTP)", the "New Energy Vehicle(NEV)", the "Active Transportation(AT)", the "Private Car Regulation(PCR)" and the "Hybrid Policy(HP)". Then the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP model) framework is adopted to estimate CO2 emission under given policies scenarios up to year 2020 and analyze the implications. The results demonstrate that the low-carbon transportation policies can reduce CO2 emission effectively. Specifically, the "Hybrid Policy(HP)" has the best performance. In terms of single policy effect, the "Private Car Regulation(PCR)" comes first followed by the "Public Transportation Priority(PTP)".

  7. Factors Determinants the Choice of Mobile Service Providers: Structural Equation Modeling Approach on Bangladeshi Consumers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahasanul Haque

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to find out what were the factors that may have played significant role to select the telecommunication service providers. In general this research has an intention to develop a research framework grounded on a strong theoretical and literature review background. The survey instruments employed on Bangladeshi consumers included demographic background, price, service quality, product quality and availability and promotional offers for consumer perception. Thus the structural equation modeling approach was necessary in order to examine the variables. The data analysis was conducted using SPSS and AMOS (Analysis of Moment Structure with the software package for windows. From the result it is revealed that paths are related to the casual processes significantly. Among all the significant variables, from our result, Price is the most important among our respondents followed by Service quality, product quality and promotion. Further research should be considered to gather more information regarding the service quality and customers’ satisfaction dimensions in context of the Bangladeshi mobile phone operators. It is hoped that the findings of this study may assist mobile phone industry in Bangladesh about their services and promotion of their services. However, the findings of this study may provide needed feedback and contribute to the improvement of players’ strategy and their marketing program

  8. Do Financial Incentives Influence GPs' Decisions to Do After-hours Work? A Discrete Choice Labour Supply Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broadway, Barbara; Kalb, Guyonne; Li, Jinhu; Scott, Anthony

    2017-02-20

    This paper analyses doctors' supply of after-hours care (AHC), and how it is affected by personal and family circumstances as well as the earnings structure. We use detailed survey data from a large sample of Australian General Practitioners (GPs) to estimate a structural, discrete choice model of labour supply and AHC. This allows us to jointly model GPs' decisions on the number of daytime-weekday working hours and the probability of providing AHC. We simulate GPs' labour supply responses to an increase in hourly earnings, both in a daytime-weekday setting and for AHC. GPs increase their daytime-weekday working hours if their hourly earnings in this setting increase, but only to a very small extent. GPs are somewhat more likely to provide AHC if their hourly earnings in that setting increase, but again, the effect is very small and only evident in some subgroups. Moreover, higher earnings in weekday-daytime practice reduce the probability of providing AHC, particularly for men. Increasing GPs' earnings appears to be at best relatively ineffective in encouraging increased provision of AHC and may even prove harmful if incentives are not well targeted. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Human papillomavirus vaccination: what is the best choice? A comparison of 16 strategies by means of a decisional model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasparini, R; Amicizia, D; Manfredi, P; Ansaldi, F; Lucioni, C; Gallelli, G; Panatto, D

    2009-06-01

    Some European countries decided to include human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines in national immunization schedules. In order to help decision makers choose the best vaccination policy for females, a decisional model has been developed. The study was performed from the National Health Service perspective. Several hypotheses of multi-cohort vaccination policies were compared. 'Potentially avoidable infections' were chosen as the outcome. The model envisioned a short-term scenario (2008-2011). The best policy was that of vaccinating 12-year-olds and, a year later, those aged 14-16 years; the most expensive strategy was that of vaccinating 12-year-old females and, after 1 year, vaccinating those aged 15, 18 and 25 years. The sensitivity analysis showed that coverage rate has a great effect on the cost of avoidable infections. The study offers stake-holders an important datum-point for the choice of the best HPV policy vaccination in the short term. Indeed, it could generate interesting savings for the National Health Service and a rapid HPV immunization of young girls.

  10. Predicting and understanding Korean high school students' science-track choice: Testing the theory of reasoned action by structural equation modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myeong, Jeon-Ok; Crawley, Frank E.

    The theory of reasoned action (Ajzen & Fishbein, 1980; Fishbein & Ajzen, 1975) was used to predict and understand Korean high school students' track choice for college entrance. First-year high school students (N = 665) from four representative regions of Korea participated in the study. The survey instruments were questionnaires developed according to the guidelines of the TRA. The target behavior of interest in this study was Korean students' choice of the science track when they completed the track application forms during the first year of high school. Predictors included TRA model and external variables. Multiple regression and the structural equation modeling with LISREL (Jöreskog & Sörbom, 1986) were used to analyze the data. The TRA was found to be applicable for understanding and predicting track choice, with minor modifications. Subjective norm was found to exert a direct influence on personal beliefs and the target behavior.

  11. The Strategic Choice Model and Industrial Relations in Japan (Special Issue of the Faculty of Business Administration: In Commemoration of the Establishment of Graduate school of Business Administration)

    OpenAIRE

    関口, 倫紀

    2005-01-01

    The strategic choice model in industrial relations advanced by Kochan and his colleagues in 1980s has been the subject of considerable attention. In this paper, I apply this model to understand Japanese industrial relations. After introducing the basic framework of the strategic choice model, I illustrate the historical background of Japanese industrial relations and the transformation of corporate strategies, human resource practices and labor relations using the strategic choice framework. ...

  12. Vocational Choice: A Decision Making Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauermann, Henry

    2005-01-01

    We propose a model of vocational choice that can be used for analyzing and guiding the decision processes underlying career and job choices. Our model is based on research in behavioral decision making (BDM), in particular the choice goals framework developed by Bettman, Luce, and Payne (1998). The basic model involves two major processes. First,…

  13. Head-to-head comparison of health-state values derived by a probabilistic choice model and scores on a visual analogue scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krabbe, Paul F M; Stolk, Elly A; Devlin, Nancy J; Xie, Feng; Quik, Elise H; Pickard, A Simon

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Health states were quantified based on discrete choice (DC) modeling and visual analogue scale (VAS) values using the five-level version of the EQ-5D (EQ-5D-5L). The aim of this study was to determine the extent of the relationship between DC derived values (indirect method) and VAS valu

  14. Effects of task complexity and time pressure on activity-travel choices: heteroscedastic logit model and activity-travel simulator experiment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, C.; Chorus, C.G.; Molin, E.J.E.; Van Wee, G.P.

    2015-01-01

    This paper derives, estimates and applies a discrete choice model of activity-travel behaviour that accommodates potential effects of task complexity and time pressure on decision-making. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that both factors (task complexity and time pressure) are j

  15. Understanding surgery choices for breast cancer: how might the Theory of Planned Behaviour and the Common Sense Model contribute to decision support interventions?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sivell, S.; Edwards, A.; Elwyn, G.; Manstead, A.S.

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To describe the evidence about factors influencing breast cancer patients' surgery choices and the implications for designing decision support in reference to an extended Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) and the Common Sense Model of Illness Representations (CSM). BACKGROUND: A wide rang

  16. Using ordered attitudinal indicators in a latent variable choice model: a study of the impact of security on rail travel behaviour

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daly, A.; Hess, S.; Patruni, B.; Potoglou, D.; Rohr, C.

    2011-01-01

    There is growing interest in the use of models that recognise the role of individuals’ attitudes and perceptions in choice behaviour. Rather than relying on simple linear approaches or a potentially bias-inducing deterministic approach based on incorporating stated attitudinal indicators directly in

  17. Cost-effective choices of marine fuels in a carbon-constrained world: results from a global energy model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taljegard, Maria; Brynolf, Selma; Grahn, Maria; Andersson, Karin; Johnson, Hannes

    2014-11-04

    The regionalized Global Energy Transition model has been modified to include a more detailed shipping sector in order to assess what marine fuels and propulsion technologies might be cost-effective by 2050 when achieving an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 400 or 500 ppm by the year 2100. The robustness of the results was examined in a Monte Carlo analysis, varying uncertain parameters and technology options, including the amount of primary energy resources, the availability of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, and costs of different technologies and fuels. The four main findings are (i) it is cost-effective to start the phase out of fuel oil from the shipping sector in the next decade; (ii) natural gas-based fuels (liquefied natural gas and methanol) are the most probable substitutes during the study period; (iii) availability of CCS, the CO2 target, the liquefied natural gas tank cost and potential oil resources affect marine fuel choices significantly; and (iv) biofuels rarely play a major role in the shipping sector, due to limited supply and competition for bioenergy from other energy sectors.

  18. Airport terminal choice model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Helena Muñoz-Hoyos

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available La mayoría de los estudios del modo aéreo han tratado individua lmente los aspectos de tarifas, demoras y demás variables inher entes a este medio de transporte, así como la elección del modo aéreo f rente a otros modos, pero poco se ha hecho por modelar cómo un viajero elige un aeropuerto entre dos opciones disponibles en una gran ciudad. En la actualidad un pasajero que parte de la ciudad de Medellín - Colombia a algunos destinos nacionales, tiene la opción de v iajar por alguno de los dos aeropuertos, el José María Córdova (JMC o el Enriqu e Olaya Herrera (EOH; esta investigación presenta los resultad os de una encuesta de preferencias declaradas en un experimento de elecci ón discreta, y partiendo de esto se obtiene un modelo por desti no; para cada uno de estos se hallaron modelos logit multinomial y logit mixt o; en cada trayecto evaluado se eligió el logit multinomial com o el mejor.

  19. Testing an Integrated Model of Program Implementation: the Food, Health & Choices School-Based Childhood Obesity Prevention Intervention Process Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgermaster, Marissa; Gray, Heewon Lee; Tipton, Elizabeth; Contento, Isobel; Koch, Pamela

    2017-01-01

    Childhood obesity is a complex, worldwide problem. Significant resources are invested in its prevention, and high-quality evaluations of these efforts are important. Conducting trials in school settings is complicated, making process evaluations useful for explaining results. Intervention fidelity has been demonstrated to influence outcomes, but others have suggested that other aspects of implementation, including participant responsiveness, should be examined more systematically. During Food, Health & Choices (FHC), a school-based childhood obesity prevention trial designed to test a curriculum and wellness policy taught by trained FHC instructors to fifth grade students in 20 schools during 2012-2013, we assessed relationships among facilitator behaviors (i.e., fidelity and teacher interest); participant behaviors (i.e., student satisfaction and recall); and program outcomes (i.e., energy balance-related behaviors) using hierarchical linear models, controlling for student, class, and school characteristics. We found positive relationships between student satisfaction and recall and program outcomes, but not fidelity and program outcomes. We also found relationships between teacher interest and fidelity when teachers participated in implementation. Finally, we found a significant interaction between fidelity and satisfaction on behavioral outcomes. These findings suggest that individual students in the same class responded differently to the same intervention. They also suggest the importance of teacher buy-in for successful intervention implementation. Future studies should examine how facilitator and participant behaviors together are related to both outcomes and implementation. Assessing multiple aspects of implementation using models that account for contextual influences on behavioral outcomes is an important step forward for prevention intervention process evaluations.

  20. Design and validation of realistic breast models for use in multiple alternative forced choice virtual clinical trials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elangovan, Premkumar; Mackenzie, Alistair; Dance, David R.; Young, Kenneth C.; Cooke, Victoria; Wilkinson, Louise; Given-Wilson, Rosalind M.; Wallis, Matthew G.; Wells, Kevin

    2017-04-01

    A novel method has been developed for generating quasi-realistic voxel phantoms which simulate the compressed breast in mammography and digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT). The models are suitable for use in virtual clinical trials requiring realistic anatomy which use the multiple alternative forced choice (AFC) paradigm and patches from the complete breast image. The breast models are produced by extracting features of breast tissue components from DBT clinical images including skin, adipose and fibro-glandular tissue, blood vessels and Cooper’s ligaments. A range of different breast models can then be generated by combining these components. Visual realism was validated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) study of patches from simulated images calculated using the breast models and from real patient images. Quantitative analysis was undertaken using fractal dimension and power spectrum analysis. The average areas under the ROC curves for 2D and DBT images were 0.51  ±  0.06 and 0.54  ±  0.09 demonstrating that simulated and real images were statistically indistinguishable by expert breast readers (7 observers); errors represented as one standard error of the mean. The average fractal dimensions (2D, DBT) for real and simulated images were (2.72  ±  0.01, 2.75  ±  0.01) and (2.77  ±  0.03, 2.82  ±  0.04) respectively; errors represented as one standard error of the mean. Excellent agreement was found between power spectrum curves of real and simulated images, with average β values (2D, DBT) of (3.10  ±  0.17, 3.21  ±  0.11) and (3.01  ±  0.32, 3.19  ±  0.07) respectively; errors represented as one standard error of the mean. These results demonstrate that radiological images of these breast models realistically represent the complexity of real breast structures and can be used to simulate patches from mammograms and DBT images that are indistinguishable from

  1. Optimal Effort in Consumer Choice : Theory and Experimental Evidence for Binary Choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Conlon, B.J.; Dellaert, B.G.C.; van Soest, A.H.O.

    2001-01-01

    This paper develops a theoretical model of optimal effort in consumer choice.The model extends previous consumer choice models in that the consumer not only chooses a product, but also decides how much effort to apply to a given choice problem.The model yields a unique optimal level of effort, which

  2. Optimal effort in consumer choice : theory and experimental analysis for binary choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Conlon; B.G.C. Dellaert (Benedict); A.H.O. van Soest (Arthur)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractThis paper develops a theoretical model of optimal effort in consumer choice. The model extends previous consumer choice models in that the consumer not only chooses a product, but also decides how much effort to apply to a given choice problem. The model yields a unique optimal level of

  3. Examining Temporal Sample Scale and Model Choice with Spatial Capture-Recapture Models in the Common Leopard Panthera pardus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, Joshua F; Tempa, Tshering; Norbu, Nawang; Hebblewhite, Mark; Mills, L Scott; Wangchuk, Tshewang R; Lukacs, Paul

    2015-01-01

    Many large carnivores occupy a wide geographic distribution, and face threats from habitat loss and fragmentation, poaching, prey depletion, and human wildlife-conflicts. Conservation requires robust techniques for estimating population densities and trends, but the elusive nature and low densities of many large carnivores make them difficult to detect. Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models provide a means for handling imperfect detectability, while linking population estimates to individual movement patterns to provide more accurate estimates than standard approaches. Within this framework, we investigate the effect of different sample interval lengths on density estimates, using simulations and a common leopard (Panthera pardus) model system. We apply Bayesian SCR methods to 89 simulated datasets and camera-trapping data from 22 leopards captured 82 times during winter 2010-2011 in Royal Manas National Park, Bhutan. We show that sample interval length from daily, weekly, monthly or quarterly periods did not appreciably affect median abundance or density, but did influence precision. We observed the largest gains in precision when moving from quarterly to shorter intervals. We therefore recommend daily sampling intervals for monitoring rare or elusive species where practicable, but note that monthly or quarterly sample periods can have similar informative value. We further develop a novel application of Bayes factors to select models where multiple ecological factors are integrated into density estimation. Our simulations demonstrate that these methods can help identify the "true" explanatory mechanisms underlying the data. Using this method, we found strong evidence for sex-specific movement distributions in leopards, suggesting that sexual patterns of space-use influence density. This model estimated a density of 10.0 leopards/100 km2 (95% credibility interval: 6.25-15.93), comparable to contemporary estimates in Asia. These SCR methods provide a guide to

  4. Model for managing water in oil refineries based in Strategic Choice Approach; Modelo para gerenciamento de aguas em refinarias de petroleo atraves do 'Strategic Choice Approach'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sobral, Marcos Felipe Falcao; Morais, Danielle Costa [Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE), Recife, PE (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    Like all natural resources, the water has more space on the staff of debates in the business because of the scenarios current and future trends that point to the high costs related to its capitation, use and disposal. As an essential input in various industrial activities, in special way in the process of refining oil, the correct management of water resources becomes a challenge ahead is to be observed in the actions of these strategic industries. So there is needs to structure the problem before solve it, considering the various uncertainties related to decision environmental, it is evident the need a method to assist policy makers in the generation of alternatives for water management in these enterprises. Thus, this work aims to propose a model for managing water in oil refineries, using the Strategic Choice Approach. (author)

  5. Empirical study of travel mode forecasting improvement for the combined revealed preference/stated preference data–based discrete choice model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanfu Qiao

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The combined revealed preference/stated preference data–based discrete choice model has provided the actual choice-making restraints as well as reduced the prediction errors. But the random error variance of alternatives belonging to different data would impact its universality. In this article, we studied the traffic corridor between Chengdu and Longquan with the revealed preference/stated preference joint model, and the single stated preference data model separately predicted the choice probability of each mode. We found the revealed preference/stated preference joint model is universal only when there is a significant difference between the random error terms in different data. The single stated preference data would amplify the travelers’ preference and cause prediction error. We proposed a universal way that uses revealed preference data to modify the single stated preference data parameter estimation results to achieve the composite utility and reduce the prediction error. And the result suggests that prediction results are more reasonable based on the composite utility than the results based on the single stated preference data, especially forecasting the mode share of bus. The future metro line will be the main travel mode in this corridor, and 45% of passenger flow will transfer to the metro.

  6. A Two-Layered Diffusion Model Traces the Dynamics of Information Processing in the Valuation-and-Choice Circuit of Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pietro Piu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A circuit of evaluation and selection of the alternatives is considered a reliable model in neurobiology. The prominent contributions of the literature to this topic are reported. In this study, valuation and choice of a decisional process during Two-Alternative Forced-Choice (TAFC task are represented as a two-layered network of computational cells, where information accrual and processing progress in nonlinear diffusion dynamics. The evolution of the response-to-stimulus map is thus modeled by two linked diffusive modules (2LDM representing the neuronal populations involved in the valuation-and-decision circuit of decision making. Diffusion models are naturally appropriate for describing accumulation of evidence over the time. This allows the computation of the response times (RTs in valuation and choice, under the hypothesis of ex-Wald distribution. A nonlinear transfer function integrates the activities of the two layers. The input-output map based on the infomax principle makes the 2LDM consistent with the reinforcement learning approach. Results from simulated likelihood time series indicate that 2LDM may account for the activity-dependent modulatory component of effective connectivity between the neuronal populations. Rhythmic fluctuations of the estimate gain functions in the delta-beta bands also support the compatibility of 2LDM with the neurobiology of DM.

  7. 基于SEM的城市公交方式选择行为模型%Mode Choice Behavior Model of Urban Public Transport Based on SEM

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈坚; 杨亚璪; 李小兵; 穆礼彬

    2014-01-01

    To solve the existing mode choice behavior model of urban public transport considered only the observable variables, but do not relate to the unobserved latent variables which affect travel choices. And a structural equation model(SEM) of urban public transport mode choice behavior is built based on latent variables and observable variables. The quantitative relationship between various influencing factors and the effect to choice results are analyzed. With traveler personality traits, behavior characteristics of different groups are studied. Finally, the model is used in the Chengdu example analysis. It is pointed that the perceived value has a significant influence on choice results and can explain 62% of the travel behavioral intention. The service quality effect on perceived value is bigger than the price rationality. Choice behavior characteristics of different groups exist certain difference.%为解决现有居民公交方式选择行为模型中仅考虑可直接观测的显变量,尚未涉及对选择结果具有一定影响的不可直接观测的潜变量的问题,本文从潜变量与显变量角度,构建了公交方式选择行为结构方程模型。分析了各种影响因素之间的定量关系,以及对选择结果的影响作用大小,并依据出行者人格特质进行了分群行为特性研究。最后,将模型运用于成都公交出行实例分析中。结果表明:知觉价值对选择结果具有显著影响,可解释出行行为意向的62%信息,服务品质对知觉价值的影响高于票价合理性,且不同群体的选择行为特征存在一定差异。

  8. MODELING IN THE PROCESSES OF CHOICE OF THE COMPANY DELIVERING BOTTLED WATER BY THE CONSUMERS ON THE BACKGROUND OF REFLEXIVE MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Skitsko

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this work the problem of high quality drinking water provision is described and analyzed. It is shown that a person may obtain such water by various ways one of which is bottled water delivery by specialized companies. The existence of numerous players on drinking water market stipulates the occurrence of the number of problems – in particular, the choice of the delivering water company by the consumer and fight of such companies for the consumer. The work proposes to apply a reflexive approach in order to influence the choice of the consumer, which allows the company to make him take the "right" decision. For solving the problem the classical and fuzzy model of reflexive management are described.

  9. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice prob...

  10. Choice Probability Generating Functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...

  11. Mathematical learning instruction and teacher motivation factors affecting science technology engineering and math (STEM) major choices in 4-year colleges and universities: Multilevel structural equation modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ahlam

    2011-12-01

    Using the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002/06, this study examined the effects of the selected mathematical learning and teacher motivation factors on graduates' science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) related major choices in 4-year colleges and universities, as mediated by math performance and math self-efficacy. Using multilevel structural equation modeling, I analyzed: (1) the association between mathematical learning instruction factors (i.e., computer, individual, and lecture-based learning activities in mathematics) and students' STEM major choices in 4-year colleges and universities as mediated by math performance and math self-efficacy and (2) the association between school factor, teacher motivation and students' STEM major choices in 4-year colleges and universities via mediators of math performance and math self-efficacy. The results revealed that among the selected learning experience factors, computer-based learning activities in math classrooms yielded the most positive effects on math self-efficacy, which significantly predicted the increase in the proportion of students' STEM major choice as mediated by math self-efficacy. Further, when controlling for base-year math Item Response Theory (IRT) scores, a positive relationship between individual-based learning activities in math classrooms and the first follow-up math IRT scores emerged, which related to the high proportion of students' STEM major choices. The results also indicated that individual and lecture-based learning activities in math yielded positive effects on math self-efficacy, which related to STEM major choice. Concerning between-school levels, teacher motivation yielded positive effects on the first follow up math IRT score, when controlling for base year IRT score. The results from this study inform educators, parents, and policy makers on how mathematics instruction can improve student math performance and encourage more students to prepare for STEM careers. Students

  12. A benefit–risk assessment model for statins using multicriteria decision analysis based on a discrete choice experiment in Korean patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byun JH

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Ji-Hye Byun,1 Sun-Hong Kwon,1 Ji-Hye Ha,2 Eui-Kyung Lee1 1School of Pharmacy, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon-si, Gyeonggi-do, 2Ministry of Food and Drug Safety, Cheongju-si, Chungcheongbuk-do, South Korea Purpose: The benefit–risk balance for drugs can alter post approval owing to additional data on efficacy or adverse events. This study developed a quantitative benefit–risk assessment (BRA model for statins using multicriteria decision analysis with discrete choice experiments and compared a recent BRA with that at the time of approval. Patients and methods: Following a systematic review of the literature, the benefit criteria within the statin BRA model were defined as a reduction in the plasma low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level and a reduction in myocardial infarction incidence; the risk criteria were hepatotoxicity (Liv and fatal rhabdomyolysis (Rha. The scores for these criteria were estimated using mixed treatment comparison methods. Weighting was calculated from a discrete choice experiment involving 203 Korean patients. The scores and weights were integrated to produce an overall value representing the benefit–risk balance, and sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results: In this BRA model, low-density lipoprotein (relative importance [RI]: 37.50% was found to be a more important benefit criterion than myocardial infarction (RI: 35.43%, and Liv (RI: 16.28% was a more important risk criterion than Rha (RI: 10.79%. Patients preferred atorvastatin, and the preference ranking of cerivastatin and simvastatin was switched post approval because of the emergence of additional risk information related to cerivastatin. Conclusion: A quantitative statin BRA model confirmed that the preference ranking of statins changed post approval because of the identification of additional benefits or risks. Keywords: multicriteria decision analysis, statin, quantitative benefit–risk assessment, discrete choice experiment

  13. On the tradeoffs of programming language choice for numerical modelling in geoscience. A case study comparing modern Fortran, C++/Blitz++ and Python/NumPy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarecka, D.; Arabas, S.; Fijalkowski, M.; Gaynor, A.

    2012-04-01

    The language of choice for numerical modelling in geoscience has long been Fortran. A choice of a particular language and coding paradigm comes with different set of tradeoffs such as that between performance, ease of use (and ease of abuse), code clarity, maintainability and reusability, availability of open source compilers, debugging tools, adequate external libraries and parallelisation mechanisms. The availability of trained personnel and the scale and activeness of the developer community is of importance as well. We present a short comparison study aimed at identification and quantification of these tradeoffs for a particular example of an object oriented implementation of a parallel 2D-advection-equation solver in Python/NumPy, C++/Blitz++ and modern Fortran. The main angles of comparison will be complexity of implementation, performance of various compilers or interpreters and characterisation of the "added value" gained by a particular choice of the language. The choice of the numerical problem is dictated by the aim to make the comparison useful and meaningful to geoscientists. Python is chosen as a language that traditionally is associated with ease of use, elegant syntax but limited performance. C++ is chosen for its traditional association with high performance but even higher complexity and syntax obscurity. Fortran is included in the comparison for its widespread use in geoscience often attributed to its performance. We confront the validity of these traditional views. We point out how the usability of a particular language in geoscience depends on the characteristics of the language itself and the availability of pre-existing software libraries (e.g. NumPy, SciPy, PyNGL, PyNIO, MPI4Py for Python and Blitz++, Boost.Units, Boost.MPI for C++). Having in mind the limited complexity of the considered numerical problem, we present a tentative comparison of performance of the three implementations with different open source compilers including CPython and

  14. Modeling school choice: A comparison of public, private-independent, private-religious and home-schooled students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clive R. Belfield

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available U.S. students now have four choices of schooling: public schooling, private–religious schooling, private–independent schooling, and home-schooling. Of these, home-schooling is the most novel: since legalization across the states in the last few decades, it has grown in importance and legitimacy as an alternative choice. Thus, it is now possible to investigate the motivation for home-schooling, relative to the other schooling options. Here, we use two recent large-scale datasets to assess the school enrollment decision: the first is the National Household Expenditure Survey (1999, and the second is micro-data on SAT test-takers in 2001. We find that, generally, families with home-schoolers have similar characteristics to those with children at other types of school, but mother’s characteristics – specifically, her employment status – have a strong influence on the decision to home-school. Plausibly, religious belief has an important influence on the schooling decision, not only for Catholic students, but also those of other faiths.

  15. Evoked emotions predict food choice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelle R Dalenberg

    Full Text Available In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Therefore, the focus within recent studies shifted towards using emotion-profiling methods that successfully can discriminate between products that are equally liked. However, it is unclear how well scores from emotion-profiling methods predict actual food choice and/or consumption. To test this, we proposed to decompose emotion scores into valence and arousal scores using Principal Component Analysis (PCA and apply Multinomial Logit Models (MLM to estimate food choice using liking, valence, and arousal as possible predictors. For this analysis, we used an existing data set comprised of liking and food-evoked emotions scores from 123 participants, who rated 7 unlabeled breakfast drinks. Liking scores were measured using a 100-mm visual analogue scale, while food-evoked emotions were measured using 2 existing emotion-profiling methods: a verbal and a non-verbal method (EsSense Profile and PrEmo, respectively. After 7 days, participants were asked to choose 1 breakfast drink from the experiment to consume during breakfast in a simulated restaurant environment. Cross validation showed that we were able to correctly predict individualized food choice (1 out of 7 products for over 50% of the participants. This number increased to nearly 80% when looking at the top 2 candidates. Model comparisons showed that evoked emotions better predict food choice than perceived liking alone. However, the strongest predictive strength was achieved by the combination of evoked emotions and liking. Furthermore we showed that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores more accurately predict food choice than verbal food-evoked emotions scores.

  16. 离散选择模型在产品差别研究中的应用%The Application of Discrete Choice Model to the Analysis of Product Difference

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    袁诚

    2003-01-01

    The paper introduces to the application of three scatter choosing model to describe consumer's choice, thereby to conduct the demand analysis by using the consumers' materials and the cross section materials of market quotation.

  17. Impact of CO2-Induced Warming on Simulated Hurricane Intensity and Precipitation: Sensitivity to the Choice of Climate Model and Convective Parameterization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knutson, Thomas R.; Tuleya, Robert E.

    2004-09-01

    Previous studies have found that idealized hurricanes, simulated under warmer, high-CO2 conditions, are more intense and have higher precipitation rates than under present-day conditions. The present study explores the sensitivity of this result to the choice of climate model used to define the CO2-warmed environment and to the choice of convective parameterization used in the nested regional model that simulates the hurricanes. Approximately 1300 five-day idealized simulations are performed using a higher-resolution version of the GFDL hurricane prediction system (grid spacing as fine as 9 km, with 42 levels). All storms were embedded in a uniform 5 m s-1 easterly background flow. The large-scale thermodynamic boundary conditions for the experiments— atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles and SSTs—are derived from nine different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2+) climate models. The CO2-induced SST changes from the global climate models, based on 80-yr linear trends from +1% yr-1 CO2 increase experiments, range from about +0.8° to +2.4°C in the three tropical storm basins studied. Four different moist convection parameterizations are tested in the hurricane model, including the use of no convective parameterization in the highest resolution inner grid. Nearly all combinations of climate model boundary conditions and hurricane model convection schemes show a CO2-induced increase in both storm intensity and near-storm precipitation rates. The aggregate results, averaged across all experiments, indicate a 14% increase in central pressure fall, a 6% increase in maximum surface wind speed, and an 18% increase in average precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm center. The fractional change in precipitation is more sensitive to the choice of convective parameterization than is the fractional change of intensity. Current hurricane potential intensity theories, applied to the climate model environments, yield an average increase of intensity

  18. Dynamic Portfolio Choice with Frictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garleanu, Nicolae; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    2016-01-01

    We show how portfolio choice can be modeled in continuous time with transitory and persistent transaction costs, multiple assets, multiple signals predicting returns, and general signal dynamics. The objective function is derived from the limit of discrete-time models with endogenous transaction...

  19. A hybrid discrete choice model to assess the effect of awareness and attitude towards environmentally friendly travel modes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sottile, Eleonora; Meloni, Italo; Cherchi, Elisabetta

    2015-01-01

    (level-of-service characteristics being equal). It has been observed, though not scientifically demonstrated, that these measures can produce changes, being the result of mindful decisions. However, in some cases, as demonstrated by numerous environmental psychology studies such measures...... are not sufficient to overcome the effect of cognitive dissonance, one of the main factors hindering change. In fact it is not unusual to find discrepancies between attitudes and behaviour in travel behaviour research. The objective of the present work is to understand the relationship between awareness, attitude...... and behaviour in the context of mode choice and to measure the effect of awareness after the implementation of a soft measure after controlling for individual environmental attitudes. Using a dataset gathered in two weeks, before and after individuals are informed of the benefits of using park and ride (P...

  20. Cost-effective fuel and technology choices in the transportation sector in a future carbon constrained world: Results from the Global Energy Transition (GET) model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grahn, Maria

    2009-06-15

    This thesis analyzes future fuel and technology choices focusing on transport in a carbon constrained world. The analysis tool used in all five appended papers is the cost-minimizing Global Energy Transition (GET) model. Paper I analyzes cost-effective fuel and technology choices for passenger vehicles under a variety of vehicle cost-assumptions and how these choices depend on technology paths in the electricity sector. We find that cost estimates as well as the availability of carbon capture and storage technology and concentrating solar power have a substantial impact, ranging from a dominance of hydrogen to a dominance of electricity. Paper II analyzes the cost-effectiveness of biofuels for transportation, assuming that industrialized regions start reducing their CO{sub 2} emissions some decades ahead of developing regions. We find that biofuels may play a more important role for transportation in industrialized regions if these regions assume their responsibilities and reduce emissions before developing regions start reducing theirs, compared to the case in which all countries take action under a global cap and trade emissions reduction regime. Paper III analyzes how policy instruments aimed at increasing the use of biofuels for transportation in industrialized regions affect CO{sub 2} emissions in industrialized and developing regions. We find that such policy instruments may lead to avoided emissions in industrialized regions, especially during the first 50 years, and in a few specific cases in the developing regions, too. However, in the majority of cases, such a biofuels policy leads to increased emissions in the developing regions, i.e., to 'carbon leakage'. Paper IV analyzes why two global energy systems models reach different results on the cost-effectiveness of biofuels, although the models have strong similarities. We find biomass most cost-effectively used for heat production at low CO{sub 2} taxes in both models. Biomass allocation at

  1. Attention and choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Orquin, Jacob Lund; Mueller Loose, Simone

    2013-01-01

    This paper reviews studies on eye movements in decision making, and compares their observations to theoretical predictions concerning the role of attention in decision making. Four decision theories are examined: rational models, bounded rationality, evidence accumulation, and parallel constraint...... satisfaction models. Although most theories were confirmed with regard to certain predictions, none of the theories adequately accounted for the role of attention during decision making. Several observations emerged concerning the drivers and down-stream effects of attention on choice, suggesting...... that attention processes plays an active role in constructing decisions. So far, decision theories have largely ignored the constructive role of attention by assuming that it is entirely determined by heuristics, or that it consists of stochastic information sampling. The empirical observations reveal...

  2. Strategic Factors in the Choice of a Model of Public Relations. Case Study: Seventh-day Adventist Church World Headquarters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denton, Holly M.

    A study tested a model of organizational variables that earlier research had identified as important in influencing what model(s) of public relations an organization selects. Models of public relations (as outlined by J. Grunig and Hunt in 1984) are defined as either press agentry, public information, two-way asymmetrical, or two-way symmetrical.…

  3. 消费者两阶段选择行为模型研究%An overview of consumers' two-stage choice behavior model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵藜; 田澎; 李相勇

    2012-01-01

    This article surveys the research works on consumer two-stage choice behavior models. It introduces the theory, and discusses the main research contents as well as methods of these models in the context of brand marketing and revenue management. It also summarizes the main contributions and limitations of current researches. Finally it proposes some promising areas for future studies.%综述了消费者两阶段选择行为模型的相关文献,介绍了消费者两阶段选择的理论,探讨了在产品品牌营销与收益管理中消费者两阶段选择行为模型的主要研究内容与方法,总结了其学术贡献与局限,提出了未来研究方向.

  4. Analysis of the benefits of designing and implementing a virtual didactic model of multiple choice exam and problem-solving heuristic report, for first year engineering students

    CERN Document Server

    Bennun, Leonardo

    2015-01-01

    Improvements in performance and approval obtained by first year engineering students from University of Concepcion, Chile, were studied, once a virtual didactic model of multiple-choice exam, was implemented. This virtual learning resource was implemented in the Web ARCO platform and allows training, by facing test models comparable in both time and difficulty to those that they will have to solve during the course. It also provides a feedback mechanism for both: 1) The students, since they can verify the level of their knowledge. Once they have finished the simulations, they can access a complete problem-solving heuristic report of each problem; 2) The teachers, since they can obtain information about the habits of the students in their strategies of preparation; and they also can diagnose the weaknesses of the students prior to the exam. This study indicates how this kind of preparation generates substantial improvements on the approval rates by allowing the students: 1) A more structured and oriented syste...

  5. 基于前景理论的驾驶人停车选择模型%Parking choice model based on the prospect theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谢秉磊; 王志利; 赵泽斌

    2012-01-01

    考虑到期望效用理论的缺陷及驾驶人的有限理性,利用前景理论,建立了停车选择决策模型.通过对调查数据的回归分析,确定了停车影响因素的参照点,建立了价值函数及决策权重函数,得到了单因素的前景值.利用模糊偏好下多目标决策权重赋值方法,确定了影响因素的权重,从而建立了驾驶入的停车选择模型.%In terms of defects of expected utility theory and drivers' bounded rationality, prospect theory was used to establish a new parking choice model. Based on survey data, the reference points of factors to influence parking choice were estimated with regression analysis. The value function and weight functions of decision-making for single factor were established so that the prospect value of every factor could be acquired. The multi-objective decision-making under fuzzy preference weight assignment method was used to assign the weight of every factor to obtain the overall values of options.

  6. Latent variables and route choice behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo; Bekhor, Shlomo; Pronello, Cristina

    2012-01-01

    In the last decade, a broad array of disciplines has shown a general interest in enhancing discrete choice models by considering the incorporation of psychological factors affecting decision making. This paper provides insight into the comprehension of the determinants of route choice behavior by...... results illustrate that considering latent variables (i.e., memory, habit, familiarity, spatial ability, time saving skills) alongside traditional variables (e.g., travel time, distance, congestion level) enriches the comprehension of route choice behavior....

  7. Effects of Mode Shares on Mode Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Carlos Carrion; Nebiyou Tilahun; David Levinson

    2011-01-01

    This study considers the influence of the knowledge of existing mode shares on travelers mode choice. This contrasts with traditional mode choice models, where the main objective is to predict the overall mode shares as the aggregate of individual mode choices according to variables encompassing attributes of the modes, and characteristics of the travelers. In this study, a computer-administered adaptive stated preference survey is developed and applied to a sample of subjects selected from t...

  8. Manipulating a stated choice experiment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Borjesson, Maria

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers the design of a stated choice experiment intended to measure the marginal rate of substitution (MRS) between cost and an attribute such as time using a conventional logit model. Focusing the experimental design on some target MRS will bias estimates towards that value...

  9. Speakers' choice of frame in binary choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc van Buiten

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available A distinction is proposed between extit{recommending for} preferred choice options and extit{recommending against} non-preferred choice options. In binary choice, both recommendation modes are logically, though not psychologically, equivalent. We report empirical evidence showing that speakers recommending for preferred options predominantly select positive frames, which are less common when speakers recommend against non-preferred options. In addition, option attractiveness is shown to affect speakers' choice of frame, and adoption of recommendation mode. The results are interpreted in terms of three compatibility effects, (i extit{recommendation mode---valence framing compatibility}: speakers' preference for positive framing is enhanced under extit{recommending for} and diminished under extit{recommending against} instructions, (ii extit{option attractiveness---valence framing compatibility}: speakers' preference for positive framing is more pronounced for attractive than for unattractive options, and (iii extit{recommendation mode---option attractiveness compatibility}: speakers are more likely to adopt a extit{recommending for} approach for attractive than for unattractive binary choice pairs.

  10. Modeling Commute Length Choice Decisions in Dual-income Households%双职工家庭通勤出行长度选择研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    鲜于建川; 隽志才

    2012-01-01

    以双职工家庭中夫妇俩通勤出行长度选择为研究对象,建立双变量有序Probit模型,分析了影响通勤出行长度选择的主要因素,揭示了夫妇俩通勤出行选择之间的相互影响模式.模型结果表明年龄、性别、家庭收入、居住环境等因素对双方通勤出行选择的影响方向相同,互补效应在双方的通勤出行长度选择中占主导地位.%Commuter behaviour analysis has gained a lot of attention in the fields of transportation and land-use modelling. Since commute length reflects the physical separation between work and home, individual's commuting pattern is expected to be adjusted in response to the changes in housing or residential locations. Motivated by the importance of commuter behaviour this study intended to investigate the choices of commute trips of spouses of dual-income households. A bivariate ordered-Probit model was developed with commute length of the spouses as endogenous variables to examine the interrelationships between commute decisions of spouses. The model results provide useful insights into the effects of individual/household sociodemographics, housing and location characteristics on commute length choice. It is shown that journeys to work of the two spouses in a dual-income household appear to be complements and not substitutes. Results from this research would help for making better policies to provide mobility options and job accessibility.

  11. Mate choice decisions by searchers

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Daniel D.WIEGMANN; Lisa M.ANGELONI; Steven M.SEUBERT; J.Gordon WADE

    2013-01-01

    For more than two decades rudimentary versions of thefixed sample and sequential search strategies have provided the primary theoretical foundation for the study of mate choice decisions by searchers.The theory that surrounds these models has expanded markedly over this time period.In this paper,we review and extend results derived from these models,with a focus on the empirical analysis of searcher behavior.The basic models are impractical for empirical purposes because they rely on the assumption that searchers-and,for applied purposes,researchers-assess prospective mates based on their quality,the fitness consequences of mate choice decisions.Here we expound versions of the models that are more empirically useful,reformulated to reflect decisions based on male phenotypic characters.For some organisms,it may be possible to use preference functions to derive predictions from the reformulated models and thereby avoid difficulties associated with the measurement of male quality per se.But predictions derived from the two models are difficult to differentiate empirically,regardless of how the models are formulated.Here we develop ideas that illustrate how this goal might be accomplished.In addition,we clarify how the variability of male quality should be evaluated and we extend what is known about how this variability influences searcher behavior under each model.More general difficulties associated with the empirical study of mate choice decisions by searchers are also discussed.

  12. Mate choice decisions by searchers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel D. WIEGMANN, Lisa M. ANGELONI, Steven M. SEUBERT, J. Gordon WADE

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available For more than two decades rudimentary versions of the fixed sample and sequential search strategies have provided the primary theoretical foundation for the study of mate choice decisions by searchers. The theory that surrounds these models has expanded markedly over this time period. In this paper, we review and extend results derived from these models, with a focus on the empirical analysis of searcher behavior. The basic models are impractical for empirical purposes because they rely on the assumption that searchers—and, for applied purposes, researchers—assess prospective mates based on their quality, the fitness consequences of mate choice decisions. Here we expound versions of the models that are more empirically useful, reformulated to reflect decisions based on male phenotypic characters. For some organisms, it may be possible to use preference functions to derive predictions from the reformulated models and thereby avoid difficulties associated with the measurement of male quality per se. But predictions derived from the two models are difficult to differentiate empirically, regardless of how the models are formulated. Here we develop ideas that illustrate how this goal might be accomplished. In addition, we clarify how the variability of male quality should be evaluated and we extend what is known about how this variability influences searcher behavior under each model. More general difficulties associated with the empirical study of mate choice decisions by searchers are also discussed [Current Zoology 59 (2: 184–199, 2013].

  13. Addiction: Choice or compulsion?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmund eHenden

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Normative thinking about addiction has traditionally been divided between, on the one hand, a medical model which sees addiction as a disease characterized by compulsive and relapsing drug use over which the addict has little or no control and, on the other, a moral model which sees addiction as a choice characterized by voluntary behaviour under the control of the addict. Proponents of the former appeal to evidence showing that regular consumption of drugs causes persistent changes in the brain structures and functions known to be involved in the motivation of behavior. On this evidence, it is often concluded that becoming addicted involves a transition from voluntary, chosen drug use to non-voluntary compulsive drug use. Against this view, proponents of the moral model provide ample evidence that addictive drug use involves voluntary chosen behaviour. In this article we argue that although they are right about something, both views are mistaken. We present a third model that neither rules out the view of addictive drug use as compulsive, nor that it involves voluntary chosen behavior.

  14. Informed Food Choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Coff, Christian

    2014-01-01

    of informed food choice. An informed food choice is an enlightened food choice made by the individual based on the information made available. Food choices are made when shopping for food or when eating/drinking, and information is believed to give clarity to the options by increasing market transparency......, supporting rationality (the best choice), consumers’ self-governance (autonomy) and life coherence (integrity). On a practical level, informed food choice remains an ideal to strive for, as information on food often is inadequate.......Food production and consumption influence health, the environment, social structures, etc. For this reason consumers are increasingly interested in information about these effects. Disclosure of information about the consequences of food production and consumption is essential for the idea...

  15. Informed food choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Coff, Christian Eyde

    2014-01-01

    Food production and consumption influence health, the environment, social structures, etc. For this reason consumers are increasingly interested in information about these effects. Disclosure of information about the consequences of food production and consumption is essential for the idea...... of informed food choice. An informed food choice is an enlightened food choice made by the individual based on the information made available. Food choices are made when shopping for food or when eating/drinking, and information is believed to give clarity to the options by increasing market transparency......, supporting rationality (the best choice), consumers’ self-governance (autonomy) and life coherence (integrity). On a practical level, informed food choice remains an ideal to strive for, as information on food often is inadequate....

  16. Choice Neighborhood Grantees

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Housing and Urban Development — Choice Neighborhoods grants transform distressed neighborhoods, public and assisted projects into viable and sustainable mixed-income neighborhoods by linking...

  17. How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars-Part I: Model structure, simulation of bounded rationality, and model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueller, Michel G. [ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Natural and Social Science Interface, Universitaetstr. 22, CHN J 73.2, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland); Haan, Peter de [ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Natural and Social Science Interface, Universitaetstr. 22, CHN J 73.2, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland)], E-mail: peter.dehaan@env.ethz.ch

    2009-03-15

    This article presents an agent-based microsimulation capable of forecasting the effects of policy levers that influence individual choices of new passenger cars. The fundamental decision-making units are households distinguished by sociodemographic characteristics and car ownership. A two-stage model of individual decision processes is employed. In the first stage, individual choice sets are constructed using simple, non-compensatory rules that are based on previously owned cars. Second, decision makers evaluate alternatives in their individual choice set using a multi-attributive weighting rule. The attribute weights are based on a multinomial logit model for cross-country policy analysis in European countries. Additionally, prospect theory and the notion of mental accounting are used to model the perception of monetary values. The microsimulation forecasts actual market observations with high accuracy, both on the level of aggregate market characteristics as well as on a highly resolved level of distributions of market shares. The presented approach is useful for the assessment of policies that influence individual purchase decisions of new passenger cars; it allows accounting for a highly resolved car fleet and differentiated consumer segments. As a result, the complexity of incentive schemes can be represented and detailed structural changes can be investigated.

  18. Reduced motivation in the BACHD rat model of Huntington disease is dependent on the choice of food deprivation strategy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Karl Håkan Jansson

    Full Text Available Huntington disease (HD is an inherited neurodegenerative disease characterized by motor, cognitive, psychiatric and metabolic symptoms. Animal models of HD show phenotypes that can be divided into similar categories, with the metabolic phenotype of certain models being characterized by obesity. Although interesting in terms of modeling metabolic symptoms of HD, the obesity phenotype can be problematic as it might confound the results of certain behavioral tests. This concerns the assessment of cognitive function in particular, as tests for such phenotypes are often based on food depriving the animals and having them perform tasks for food rewards. The BACHD rat is a recently established animal model of HD, and in order to ensure that behavioral characterization of these rats is done in a reliable way, a basic understanding of their physiology is needed. Here, we show that BACHD rats are obese and suffer from discrete developmental deficits. When assessing the motivation to lever push for a food reward, BACHD rats were found to be less motivated than wild type rats, although this phenotype was dependent on the food deprivation strategy. Specifically, the phenotype was present when rats of both genotypes were deprived to 85% of their respective free-feeding body weight, but not when deprivation levels were adjusted in order to match the rats' apparent hunger levels. The study emphasizes the importance of considering metabolic abnormalities as a confounding factor when performing behavioral characterization of HD animal models.

  19. Sensitivity of secondary production and export flux to choice of trophic transfer formulation in marine ecosystem models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Thomas R.; Hessen, Dag O.; Mitra, Aditee; Mayor, Daniel J.; Yool, Andrew

    2013-09-01

    The performance of four contemporary formulations describing trophic transfer, which have strongly contrasting assumptions as regards the way that consumer growth is calculated as a function of food C:N ratio and in the fate of non-limiting substrates, was compared in two settings: a simple steady-state ecosystem model and a 3D biogeochemical general circulation model. Considerable variation was seen in predictions for primary production, transfer to higher trophic levels and export to the ocean interior. The physiological basis of the various assumptions underpinning the chosen formulations is open to question. Assumptions include Liebig-style limitation of growth, strict homeostasis in zooplankton biomass, and whether excess C and N are released by voiding in faecal pellets or via respiration/excretion post-absorption by the gut. Deciding upon the most appropriate means of formulating trophic transfer is not straightforward because, despite advances in ecological stoichiometry, the physiological mechanisms underlying these phenomena remain incompletely understood. Nevertheless, worrying inconsistencies are evident in the way in which fundamental transfer processes are justified and parameterised in the current generation of marine ecosystem models, manifested in the resulting simulations of ocean biogeochemistry. Our work highlights the need for modellers to revisit and appraise the equations and parameter values used to describe trophic transfer in marine ecosystem models.

  20. A singular choice for multiple choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frandsen, Gudmund Skovbjerg; Schwartzbach, Michael Ignatieff

    2006-01-01

    How should multiple choice tests be scored and graded, in particular when students are allowed to check several boxes to convey partial knowledge? Many strategies may seem reasonable, but we demonstrate that five self-evident axioms are sufficient to determine completely the correct strategy. We ...

  1. Optimal Portfolio Choice with Wash Sale Constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Astrup Jensen, Bjarne; Marekwica, Marcel

    2011-01-01

    We analytically solve the portfolio choice problem in the presence of wash sale constraints in a two-period model with one risky asset. Our results show that wash sale constraints can heavily affect portfolio choice of investors with unrealized losses. The trading behavior of such investors...

  2. Kinky Choices, Dictators and Split Might : A Non-Cooperative Model for Household Consumption and Labor Supply

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boone, J.; van der Wiel, K.M.; Vermeulen, F.M.P.

    2009-01-01

    It is unlikely that husbands and wives always agree on exactly what public goods to buy. Nor do they necessarily agree on how many hours to work with obvious consequences for the household budget. We therefore model consumption and labor supply behavior of a couple in a non-cooperative setting by ad

  3. Kinky choices, dictators and split might : A non-cooperative model for household consumption and labor supply

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boone, J.; van der Wiel, K.; van Soest, A.H.O.; Vermeulen, F.M.P.

    2014-01-01

    We model consumption and labor supply behavior of a couple in a non-cooperative setting. Using minimal assumptions, we prove that demand for public goods is characterized by three regimes. It is either determined by the preferences of one of the partners only (Husband Dictatorship or Wife Dictatorsh

  4. The effect of unconditional cash transfers on adult labour supply: A unitary discrete choice model for the case of Ecuador

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mideros, A.; O'Donoghue, C.

    2014-01-01

    We examine the effect of unconditional cash transfers by a unitary discrete labour supply model. We argue that there is no negative income effect of social transfers in the case of poor adults because leisure could not be assumed to be a normal good under such conditions. Using data from the nationa

  5. The Assessment of Partial Knowledge: The Use of the Credit Model in Scoring Multiple-Choice Items.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Richard M.

    One of the recurrent themes of the psychometric literature has been the idea that the incorrect responses a person makes to test items contain information that might be useful in determining the person's position on the variable the items are intended to define. The "Partial Credit" model, a member of the family of latent trait models…

  6. A structural econometric model of family valuation and choice of employer-sponsored health insurance in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanness, David J

    2003-09-01

    This paper estimates a fully structural unitary household model of employment and health insurance decisions for dual wage-earner families with children in the United States, using data from the 1987 National Medical Expenditure Survey. Families choose hours of work and the breakdown of compensation between cash wages and health insurance benefits for each wage earner in order to maximize expected utility under uncertain need for medical care. Heterogeneous demand for the employer-sponsored health insurance is thus generated directly from variations in health status and earning potential. The paper concludes by discussing the benefits of using structural models for simulating welfare effects of insurance reform relative to the costly assumptions that must be imposed for identification.

  7. Making Smart Food Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... turn JavaScript on. Feature: Healthy Aging Making Smart Food Choices Past Issues / Winter 2015 Table of Contents Everyday ... NIH www.nia.nih.gov/Go4Life Making Smart Food Choices To maintain a healthy weight, balance the calories ...

  8. Crime Location Choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bernasco, Wim; Ruiter, Stijn

    2014-01-01

    Most behavior of interest to social scientists is choice behavior: actions people commit while they could also have done something else. In geographical and environmental criminology, a new framework has emerged for analyzing individual crime location choice. It is based on the principle of random u

  9. Empirical social choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kurrild-Klitgaard, Peter

    2014-01-01

    applications. Special attention is given to three phenomena and their possible empirical manifestations: The instability of social choice in the form of (1) the possibility of majority cycles, (2) the non-robustness of social choices given alternative voting methods, and (3) the possibility of various forms...

  10. Translational Model-Based Strategy to Guide the Choice of Clinical Doses for Antibody-Drug Conjugates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouillon-Pichault, Marion; Brillac, Claire; Amara, Céline; Nicolazzi, Céline; Fagniez, Nathalie; Fau, Jean-Baptiste; Koiwai, Kimiko; Ziti-Ljajic, Samira; Veyrat-Follet, Christine

    2017-01-30

    This work proposes a model-based approach to help select the phase 1 dosing regimen for the antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) SAR408701 leveraging the available data for 2 other ADCs of the same construct: SAR3419 and SAR566658. First, monkey and human pharmacokinetic (PK) data of SAR566658 and SAR3419 were used to establish the appropriate allometric approach to be applied to SAR408701 monkey PK data. Second, a population pharmacokinetics-pharmacodynamics (PK-PD) model was developed to describe tumor volume evolution following SAR408701 injection in mice. Third, allometric approaches identified for SAR566658 and SAR3419 were applied to SAR408701 monkey PK data to predict the human PK profile. Both SAR566658 and SAR3419 human and monkey PK were best described by a 2-compartment linear model. The relative difference was less than 10% between predicted and observed clearance using allometric exponents of 0.75 and 1, respectively. Tumor volume evolution following SAR408701 injection was best described by a full Simeoni model with a plasma concentration threshold of 4.6 μg/mL for eradication in mice. Both allometric exponents were used to predict SAR408701 PK in human from PK in monkey and to identify the potential effective dosing regimens. This translational strategy may be a valuable tool to design future clinical studies for ADCs, to support selection of the most appropriate dosing regimen, and to estimate the minimal dose required to assure antitumor activity, according to the schedule used.

  11. Approach Choice and Innovative Model Design of Grass-root Agricultural Technology Promotion under the View of New Countryside

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces the approach types of agricultural technology promotion we can choose in the process of new countryside construction, and there are mainly 6 types, namely government-domination-oriented approach, market-development-oriented approach, university (scientific research institution)-education-oriented approach, farmers’ participation-oriented approach, direct-training-oriented approach and individual-service-oriented approach, including 20 models. The problems existing in the grass-root agricultural technology promotion in the process of new village construction are analyzed as follows: the awareness of innovation is not strong; scientific research, education, and promotion are disjointed; the construction of specific work system lags behind; the structure of promotion team is irrational, and the quality of promotion personnel is yet to be promoted; the cultural quality of farmers is low, and the cooperative organizations are not sound; the working conditions are poor, and the basic security is inadequate; the investment channel is simple and the supply amount is badly short; the methods of agricultural technology promotion do not adapt to the requirements of new situation. According to the characteristics and internal requirements of grass-root agricultural technology promotion, we creatively design an overall working model, and put forward new measures from objective of grass-root agricultural technology promotion, service object, service content, organization work and scope, method, role of agricultural technology personnel and so on.

  12. Cultural evolution of a belief controlling human mate choice: dynamic modeling of the hinoeuma superstition in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Cinthia Marie; Iwasa, Yoh

    2012-09-21

    We develop a simple cultural dynamics model to dicuss the spread of the hinoeuma superstition in Japan. A large drop in the number of newborn babies observed in 1966 was attributed mainly to parents' avoiding having a child born in a hinoeuma year. Presumably, Japanese parents were afraid that a daughter born in 1966 (a hinoeuma year) might later have difficulty finding a mate. We construct mathematical models to examine whether the hinoeuma superstition would likely become extinct or be stably maintained in the population. We classify members of a population according to whether they believed the hinoeuma superstition (believer or nonbeliever), their gender (male or female), and their year of birth (born in a hinoeuma year or not). We compare several cases that differ according to (1) whether the belief in the superstition was transmitted to children by matrilineal, patrilineal, or Mendelian inheritance; (2) which parent controlled the timing of pregnancy and childbirth (maternal or paternal birth control); and (3) the probability of birth control failure. Our results show that the hinoeuma superstition is likely to spread if the mother has a strong influence on birth control and on the belief of their children. In contrast, if birth control is paternal and the belief is passed down from father to child, the hinoeuma superstition is likely to become extinct. In between these extremes, whether the superstition becomes extinct or fixed in the population depends on the initial frequency of believers in the population.

  13. Indecisiveness, Undesirability and Overload Revealed Through Rational Choice Deferral

    OpenAIRE

    Gerasimou, Georgios

    2015-01-01

    Three reasons why decision makers may defer choice are *indecisiveness* between various feasible options, *unattractiveness* of these options, and *choice overload*. This paper provides a choice-theoretic explanation for each of these phenomena by means of three deferral-permitting models of decision making that are driven by preference incompleteness, undesirability and complexity constraints, respectively. These models feature *rational* choice deferral in the sense that whenever the indivi...

  14. Choices after Graduation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    正From the above table,we can see that the students of this university have three main choices after graduation.Of these choices,the students who have found a job only take up 50%.In contrast,students who pursue further study by taking the postgraduate entrance exam or going abroad have increased greatly than before, with the total percentage of 47%.Indeed,this phenomenon is also quite common in other universities. The following factors can account for the choices of graduates.Above all,with the enrollment extension of universities,college graduates are facing the severe em-

  15. [Fertility behavior in Quebec, family allowances, and taxes: results and simulations with a discrete choice model for the years 1975-1987].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefebvre, P; Brouillette, L; Felteau, C

    1994-12-01

    "We suppose that women (couples), who are less than 40 years old, are faced with three types of sequential decisions: the fertility decision, the decision relative to the number of children to have and the decision concerning labour force participation.... We use a nested polychotomous discrete choice model to estimate the responsiveness of the behaviour of 'married' women in Quebec to variations in the expected flow of revenue resulting from changes in the parameters of the personal income tax and in the level of public monetary transfers conditional on the number of children. The model is estimated with micro-data from 9 repeated cross-sections for the years 1975 to 1987 with a full information maximum likelihood method.... This empirical setting is used to simulate the effects of changes made to the fiscal and transfer policies in favor of families with dependent children on fertility, [women's] labor force participation and the importance of spending costs for the two levels of government." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

  16. On the impact of the choice of the evapotranspiration equation in a crop model : climate data error propagation and climate change impact projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramarohetra, J.; Sultan, B.

    2013-12-01

    As it enables the understanding and the quantification of the transfer of water in ecosystems and from ecosystems to the atmosphere, evapotranspiration is a key component to assess climate impact on hydrology and agriculture. In crop models, the estimation of the evapotranspiration rate requires first calculating potential or reference evapotranspiration from climate data. To compute reference evapotranspiration different formulas requiring more or less climate data are used. The choice of the formulation of this key process is very likely to have an impact on calculated crop yield. The FAO recommends using the Penman-Monteith (PM) equation if all the climate data required for this equation are available and using Hargreaves (H) equation when climate data, especially net radiation, are missing. The Priestley-Taylor equation is also widely used in crop models. Which of these equations is the most accurate when all the climate data required are available but contain errors ? Does the choice of the evapotranspiration equation have an impact on crop yield projection in a context of climate change ? Does the use of some equations induce more pessimistic crop yield projection ? We studied the impact of the reference evapotranspiration equations on simulated crop yield using climate data with errors. 4 equations (PM, H and 2 versions of the Priestley-Taylor equation - PT) were tested simulating pearl millet over 12 stations in Senegal. In this case, we found that the use of a PT equation may introduce a percent mean bias error of more than -35% on simulated crop yield while it is limited to 2% when using the H equation. The influence of the evapotranspiration equation on the quantification of climate change impact on crop yield is examined applying the AgMIP C3MP protocol over the 12 stations in Senegal then analyzing ISI-AgMIP GGCM Intercomparison fast-track project outputs over the world. Our preliminary results show that crop yields computed using a PT equation are

  17. Make Better Food Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    10 tips Nutrition Education Series make better food choices 10 tips for women’s health Fruits Grains Dairy Vegetables Protein Make yourself a priority and take time to care for yourself. ChooseMyPlate. gov ...

  18. Veterans Choice Program

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — If you are already enrolled in VA health care, the Choice Program allows you to receive health care within your community. Using this program does NOT impact your...

  19. Consumer choice behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Flemming; Percy, Larry; Hallum Hansen, Morten

    2004-01-01

    The paper is concerned with the measurement of emotions and the study of the role ofemotions in consumer choice. Contemporary neurological findings suggest that emotionsmay play a role in its own right, quite different from the way in which they have beenconsidered in traditional consumer choice...... behaviour theory. A large-scale study including800 respondents, covering 64 brands, provide findings on emotional response tendenciesfor the brands, and relate these to involvement, type of need gratification, purchasingbehaviour, etc....

  20. Resurgence as Choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahan, Timothy A; Craig, Andrew R

    2016-10-26

    Resurgence is typically defined as an increase in a previously extinguished target behavior when a more recently reinforced alternative behavior is later extinguished. Some treatments of the phenomenon have suggested that it might also extend to circumstances where either the historic or more recently reinforced behavior is reduced by other non-extinction related means (e.g., punishment, decreases in reinforcement rate, satiation, etc.). Here we present a theory of resurgence suggesting that the phenomenon results from the same basic processes governing choice. In its most general form, the theory suggests that resurgence results from changes in the allocation of target behavior driven by changes in the values of the target and alternative options across time. Specifically, resurgence occurs when there is an increase in the relative value of an historically effective target option as a result of a subsequent devaluation of a more recently effective alternative option. We develop a more specific quantitative model of how extinction of the target and alternative responses in a typical resurgence paradigm might produce such changes in relative value across time using a temporal weighting rule. The example model does a good job in accounting for the effects of reinforcement rate and related manipulations on resurgence in simple schedules where Behavioral Momentum Theory has failed. We also discuss how the general theory might be extended to other parameters of reinforcement (e.g., magnitude, quality), other means to suppress target or alternative behavior (e.g., satiation, punishment, differential reinforcement of other behavior), and other factors (e.g., non- contingent versus contingent alternative reinforcement, serial alternative reinforcement, and multiple schedules).

  1. Analyzing The Impacts of the Biogas-to-Electricity Purchase Incentives on Electric Vehicle Deployment with the MA3T Vehicle Choice Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Podkaminer, Kara [U.S. Department of Energy (DOE); Xie, Fei [ORNL; Lin, Zhenhong [ORNL

    2017-01-01

    This analysis represents the biogas-to-electricity pathway under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) as a point of purchase incentive and tests the impact of this incentive on EV deployment using a vehicle consumer choice model. The credit value generated under this policy was calculated in a number of scenarios based on electricity use of each power train choice on a yearly basis over the 15 year vehicle lifetime, accounting for the average electric vehicle miles travelled and vehicle efficiency, competition for biogas-derived electricity among electric vehicles (EVs), the RIN equivalence value and the time value of money. The credit value calculation in each of these scenarios is offered upfront as a point of purchase incentive for EVs using the Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies (MA3T) vehicle choice model, which tracks sales, fleet size and energy use over time. The majority of the scenarios use a proposed RIN equivalence value, which increases the credit value as a way to explore the analysis space. Additional model runs show the relative impact of the equivalence value on EV deployment. The MA3T model output shows that a consumer incentive accelerates the deployment of EVs for all scenarios relative to the baseline (no policy) case. In the scenario modeled to represent the current biogas-to-electricity generation capacity (15 TWh/year) with a 5.24kWh/RIN equivalence value, the policy leads to an additional 1.4 million plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and 3.5 million battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2025 beyond the no-policy case of 1.3 million PHEVs and 2.1 million BEVs when the full value of the credit is passed on to the consumer. In 2030, this increases to 2.4 million PHEVs and 7.3 million BEVs beyond the baseline. This larger impact on BEVs relative to PHEVs is due in part to the larger credit that BEVs receive in the model based on the greater percentage of electric vehicle miles traveled by BEVs relative to PHEVs. In this

  2. 跨期选择单维占优模型的过程检验%A process test of priority models of intertemporal choice

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    江程铭; 刘洪志; 蔡晓红; 李纾

    2016-01-01

    Intertemporal choice is vital to human survival and development, hence the interest of scientists today in analyzing how it is made. Mainstream theories hold that a discounting process serves as basis for making choices, but other theories forego this process. For example, priority models, such as the tradeoff model and equate-to-differentiate theory, show that individuals tend to compare the difference between dimensions of delay and outcome before deciding in a single dimension when selecting between a smaller, sooner outcome (SS) and a larger, later outcome (LL). To tackle this question and improve our knowledge of the mechanisms underlying human decision making, concrete evidence based on psychological process is required. In the current study, we tested priority models by using a process-oriented method. A total of 822 college students participated in the study; 238 participated in Experiment 1A, 194 in Experiment 1B, 97 in Experiment 1C, and 293 in Experiment 2. In Experiment 1A, we manipulated the differences of two alternatives (i.e., SS and LL) in terms of monetary outcome (in Problem 1) and delay (in Problem 2). We then asked participants to indicate their preference between SS and LL and to compare the difference on the delay dimension with that on the outcome dimension (we called this process “difference- comparing process”). The aim of Experiment 1A was to examine whether one’s preference was mediated by the difference-comparing process. For Experiment 1B, we altered the procedure used in Experiment 1A (i.e., participants were first asked to conduct the difference-comparing process then indicate their preference) because we wanted to ensure that the difference-comparing process is the online process of selecting rather than the artifact of the experimental procedure. In Experiment 1C, we asked participants to indicate their preference and conduct the difference-comparing process at separate occasions. The aim of Experiment 1C was to address the

  3. Study on Resource-based Enterprise Growth Model of Strategic Choice%资源型企业成长的战略选择模型研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李鹏; 郭晓川

    2011-01-01

    For the characteristics of resource-based enterprises,according to technology,resources,business units three dimensions,the establishment of a resource-based model of firm growth TRU and proposed resource-based enterprises in the knowledge economy's growth strategy under the logical choice,considering the technical state to,Resources,status and business status,in order to establish their own unique competitive strategy.Technological innovation capacity growth,driven by business organizations to strengthen the operational capacity of integration and resource management capabilities to determine the three dimensions of the basic resource-based enterprise growth direction,the three also constitute a model of its growth strategy,so as to promote resource-based Business under the new economic environment for sustainable growth.%针对资源型企业的特点,按照技术、资源、业务单位三个维度,建立了资源型企业成长的TRU模型,并提出资源型企业在知识经济环境下的成长战略选择逻辑,要综合考虑技术状态、资源状态和业务状态,从而建立起自己独特的竞争战略。技术创新推动下的技术能力增长、业务组织整合的业务能力加强和资源控制的能力三个维度决定了资源型企业成长的基本方向,三者也构成了其成长的战略模式,从而推动资源型企业新经济环境下的可持续成长。

  4. Pay attention to impulsivity: modelling low attentive and high impulsive subtypes of adult ADHD in the 5-choice continuous performance task (5C-CPT) in female rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomlinson, Anneka; Grayson, Ben; Marsh, Samuel; Harte, Michael K; Barnes, Samuel A; Marshall, Kay M; Neill, Joanna C

    2014-08-01

    Varying levels of attention and impulsivity deficits are core features of the three subtypes of adult attention deficit-hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). To date, little is known about the neurobiological correlates of these subtypes. Development of a translational animal model is essential to improve our understanding and improve therapeutic strategies. The 5-choice continuous performance task (5C-CPT) in rats can be used to examine different forms of attention and impulsivity. Adult rats were trained to pre-set 5C-CPT criterion and subsequently separated into subgroups according to baseline levels of sustained attention, vigilance, premature responding and response disinhibition in the 5C-CPT. The behavioural subgroups were selected to represent the different subtypes of adult ADHD. Consequently, effects of the clinically used pharmacotherapies (methylphenidate and atomoxetine) were assessed in the different subgroups. Four subgroups were identified: low-attentive (LA), high-attentive (HA), high-impulsive (HI) and low-impulsive (LI). Methylphenidate and atomoxetine produced differential effects in the subgroups. Methylphenidate increased sustained attention and vigilance in LA animals, and reduced premature responding in HI animals. Atomoxetine also improved sustained attention and vigilance in LA animals, and reduced response disinhibition and premature responding in HI animals. This is the first study using adult rats to demonstrate the translational value of the 5C-CPT to select subgroups of rats, which may be used to model the subtypes observed in adult ADHD. Our findings suggest that this as an important paradigm to increase our understanding of the neurobiological underpinnings of adult ADHD-subtypes and their response to pharmacotherapy.

  5. Choice of initial therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Battegay

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Current international and national treatment guidelines such as EACS, BHIVA, DHHS or IAS update regularly recommendations on the choice of initial combination antiretroviral treatment (cART regimens. Preferred cART regimens include a backbone with two nucleoside (nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors combined either with one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor or one ritonavir boosted protease inhibitor or more recently one integrase inhibitor. Response rates according to viral load measurements increased in recent years, in particular due to better tolerability. The choice of initial therapy is flexible and influenced by several factors such as height of viral load, genotypic resistance testing, CD4 cell count, co-morbidities, interactions, potential adverse events, (potential for pregnancy, convenience, adherence, costs as well as physician's and patient's preferences. Diverse highly potent initial cART regimens exist. Following the many possibilities, the choice of a regimen is based on a mixture of evidence-informed data and individualized concepts, some of the latter only partly supported by strong evidence. For example, different perceptions and personal experiences exist about boosted protease inhibitors compared to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors or integrase inhibitors and vice versa which may influence the initial choice. This lecture will discuss choices of initial cART in view of international guidelines and the evidence for individualization of initial HIV therapy.

  6. The impact of choice context on consumers' choice heuristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mueller Loose, Simone; Scholderer, Joachim; Corsi, Armando M.

    2012-01-01

    Context effects in choice settings have received recent attention but little is known about the impact of context on choice consistency and the extent to which consumers apply choice heuristics. The sequence of alternatives in a choice set is examined here as one specific context effect. We compa...

  7. Choosing health, constrained choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chee Khoon Chan

    2009-12-01

    In parallel with the neo-liberal retrenchment of the welfarist state, an increasing emphasis on the responsibility of individuals in managing their own affairs and their well-being has been evident. In the health arena for instance, this was a major theme permeating the UK government's White Paper Choosing Health: Making Healthy Choices Easier (2004), which appealed to an ethos of autonomy and self-actualization through activity and consumption which merited esteem. As a counterpoint to this growing trend of informed responsibilization, constrained choices (constrained agency) provides a useful framework for a judicious balance and sense of proportion between an individual behavioural focus and a focus on societal, systemic, and structural determinants of health and well-being. Constrained choices is also a conceptual bridge between responsibilization and population health which could be further developed within an integrative biosocial perspective one might refer to as the social ecology of health and disease.

  8. Exchange rate regime choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beker Emilija

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The choice of an adequate exchange rate regime proves to be a highly sensitive field within which the economic authorities present and confirm themselves. The advantages and disadvantages of fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes, which have been quite relativized from the conventional point of view, together with simultaneous, but not synchronized effects of structural and external factors, remain permanently questioned throughout a complex process of exchange rate regime decision making. The paper reflects the attempt of critical identification of the key exchange rate performances with emphasis on continuous non-uniformity and (uncertainty of shelf life of a relevant choice.

  9. A quantum delayed choice experiment

    CERN Document Server

    Peruzzo, Alberto; Brunner, Nicolas; Popescu, Sandu; O'Brien, Jeremy L

    2012-01-01

    Quantum systems exhibit particle-like or wave-like behaviour depending on the experimental apparatus they are confronted by. This wave-particle duality is at the heart of quantum mechanics, and is fully captured in Wheeler's famous delayed choice gedanken experiment. In this variant of the double slit experiment, the observer chooses to test either the particle or wave nature of a photon after it has passed through the slits. Here we report on a quantum delayed choice experiment, based on a quantum controlled beam-splitter, in which both particle and wave behaviours can be investigated simultaneously. The genuinely quantum nature of the photon's behaviour is tested via a Bell inequality, which here replaces the delayed choice of the observer. We observe strong Bell inequality violations, thus showing that no model in which the photon knows in advance what type of experiment it will be confronted by, hence behaving either as a particle or as wave, can account for the experimental data.

  10. A coordinate-invariant model for deforming geodetic networks: understanding rank deficiencies, non-estimability of parameters, and the effect of the choice of minimal constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatzinikos, Miltiadis; Dermanis, Athanasios

    2016-11-01

    By considering a deformable geodetic network, deforming in a linear-in-time mode, according to a coordinate-invariant model, it becomes possible to get an insight into the rank deficiency of the stacking procedure, which is the standard method for estimating initial station coordinates and constant velocities, from coordinate time series. Comparing any two out of the infinitely many least squares estimates of stacking unknowns (initial station coordinates, velocity components and transformation parameters for the reference system in each data epoch), it is proven that the two solutions differ only by a linear-in-time trend in the transformation parameters. These pass over to the initial coordinates (the constant term) and to the velocity estimates (the time coefficient part). While the difference in initial coordinates is equivalent to a change of the reference system at the initial epoch, the differences in velocity components do not comply with those predicted by the same change of reference system for all epochs. Consequently, the different velocity component estimates, obtained by introducing different sets of minimal constraints, correspond to physically different station velocities, which are therefore non-estimable quantities. The theoretical findings are numerically verified for a global, a regional and a local network, by obtaining solutions based on four different types of minimal constraints, three usual algebraic ones (inner or partial inner) and the lately introduced kinematic constraints. Finally, by resorting to the basic ideas of Felix Tisserand, it is explained why the station velocities are non-estimable quantities in a very natural way. The problem of the optimal choice of minimal constraints and, hence, of the corresponding spatio-temporal reference system is shortly discussed.

  11. The Application of Discrete Choice Model in Smart Community%离散选择模型在智慧社区中的应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    姚薇

    2016-01-01

    Along with the development of the information science foundation, the smart city has become a trend of exploration in China's cities. As an important part of the smart city, the exploration and construction of the smart community has become a kind of inevitable. The big data technologies play a role in promoting the develop of smart community, make intelligence and informatization of community management and service possible. In this paper, the application of discrete choice model technology in the community wisdom tourism package product is a case study, it describes the application of big data technology in the intelligence community, effectively proves the feasibility of the application of big data technology.%随着信息科学基础的大力发展,“智慧城市”已成为我国各个城市探索与发展的趋势,作为“智慧城市”重要内容的“智慧社区”探索与建设也成为一种必然。大数据挖掘技术为智慧社区的实现提供了关键性技术支撑,让社区管理与服务智能化、信息化成为了可能。本文通过离散选择模型技术在社区智慧旅游套餐产品的应用为案例,详细阐述了大数据技术在智慧社区中的实际应用,有效证实了大数据技术应用的可行性。

  12. A coordinate-invariant model for deforming geodetic networks: understanding rank deficiencies, non-estimability of parameters, and the effect of the choice of minimal constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatzinikos, Miltiadis; Dermanis, Athanasios

    2017-04-01

    By considering a deformable geodetic network, deforming in a linear-in-time mode, according to a coordinate-invariant model, it becomes possible to get an insight into the rank deficiency of the stacking procedure, which is the standard method for estimating initial station coordinates and constant velocities, from coordinate time series. Comparing any two out of the infinitely many least squares estimates of stacking unknowns (initial station coordinates, velocity components and transformation parameters for the reference system in each data epoch), it is proven that the two solutions differ only by a linear-in-time trend in the transformation parameters. These pass over to the initial coordinates (the constant term) and to the velocity estimates (the time coefficient part). While the difference in initial coordinates is equivalent to a change of the reference system at the initial epoch, the differences in velocity components do not comply with those predicted by the same change of reference system for all epochs. Consequently, the different velocity component estimates, obtained by introducing different sets of minimal constraints, correspond to physically different station velocities, which are therefore non-estimable quantities. The theoretical findings are numerically verified for a global, a regional and a local network, by obtaining solutions based on four different types of minimal constraints, three usual algebraic ones (inner or partial inner) and the lately introduced kinematic constraints. Finally, by resorting to the basic ideas of Felix Tisserand, it is explained why the station velocities are non-estimable quantities in a very natural way. The problem of the optimal choice of minimal constraints and, hence, of the corresponding spatio-temporal reference system is shortly discussed.

  13. 基于Agent的居民就医选择建模与仿真%Agent-based Modeling and Simulation Research into Residents Healthcare Choice

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    程贲; 李兴兵; 鲁延京; 谭跃进

    2009-01-01

    基于Agent建模仿真是医疗服务领域中问题研究和政策分析的一种新方法.在分析目前医疗领域中居民就医选择现状的基础上,基于Agent的建模方法,对医疗系统中的主要对象--医院、社区医疗服务机构、居民的行为进行了建模,开发了基于Anylogic的居民就医选择的仿真原型,研究了居民的就医选择问题,分析扩大不同医疗机构的费用差距及增加区域内社区医疗服务机构数量两项政策对居民就医选择的影响.实验结果说明通过调节医院与社区诊所的医疗服务的价格比,能够影响居民就医选择,但增加医院的医疗服务的价格会造成部分低收入居民无法就医;区域内社区诊所与医院的比例在2~4倍时,对降低居民无法就医的比例是有效的.%Agent-based modeling and simulation is a new methodology in the field of healthcare service research and relevant policy analysis. Applying agent-based modeling and simulation methodology, we research the problem of residents' healthcare selection and construct health service models for hospitals, residents and communities. Applying the simulation tool -AnyLogic, we analyze the effects of two policies on residents' health care choice, which involve enlarging the price gap of different healthcare institutions and increasing the number of healthcare service agencies in communities within a region. The experiment result illustrates that changing the cost ratio of hospital and community service has a significant impact on residents' selection decision, while the rising of the price of healthcare service makes residents with low income unable to afford the expense of healthcare service, and that the proper ratio of the number of community health service agencies to that of hospitals within a certain region is 2 to 4.

  14. The Choice for Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Scott

    2006-01-01

    We are building conventional library space without making the paradigm shift our digital environment requires. The chief obstacles to change lie in our conception of readers as information consumers, in our allegiance to library operations as the drivers of library design, and in the choice made between foundational and non-foundational views of…

  15. Deterministic Walks with Choice

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beeler, Katy E.; Berenhaut, Kenneth S.; Cooper, Joshua N.; Hunter, Meagan N.; Barr, Peter S.

    2014-01-10

    This paper studies deterministic movement over toroidal grids, integrating local information, bounded memory and choice at individual nodes. The research is motivated by recent work on deterministic random walks, and applications in multi-agent systems. Several results regarding passing tokens through toroidal grids are discussed, as well as some open questions.

  16. Single-basined choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bossert, W.; Peters, H.J.M.

    2013-01-01

    Single-basined preferences generalize single-dipped preferences by allowing for multiple worst elements. These preferences have played an important role in areas such as voting, strategy-proofness and matching problems. We examine the notion of single-basinedness in a choice-theoretic setting. In co

  17. Choices, Not Circumstances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Education Association, Washington, DC. Div. of Instruction and Professional Development.

    Following a brief account of the circumstances of migrant workers and the status of migrant education in the United States, this pamphlet describes how the National Education Association (NEA) has impacted and will continue to impact the process of providing educational choices for migrant students. The NEA has consistently testified before…

  18. Angelina′s choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nishu Singh Goel

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This is an opinion piece on how a celebrity′s personal choice to undergo prophylactic mastectomy on discovery of an aberrant gene, when publicly promoted, carries in itself the power to influence and impact healthcare trends and decisions. When celebrities advocate causes that are universally and uniformly acceptable and indisputable as the best in the realm of healthcare and cure (e.g. no smoking, it creates well-being and awareness in society at large. But those which are personal choices made out of a repertoire of other available and effective options may, because of celebrity preference, don the mantle of a norm. They thus run the danger of being blindly replicated by others without proper awareness and knowledge of the true potential of disease, risk factors, and other existing remedial or risk-reducing measures. Society should thus be encouraged to question, debate, and understand the validity, authenticity, and reason of the choices, especially those with a medical basis. This tempering of information with intelligence and rationale and making informed choices based on facts will serve humanity as a whole.

  19. Mate-choice copying as Bayesian decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uehara, Takashi; Yokomizo, Hiroyuki; Iwasa, Yo

    2005-03-01

    Mate-choice copying by females has been reported in fishes (e.g., guppies) and lekking birds. Presumably, females assess males' quality using both information from direct observation of males and information acquired by observing other females' choices. Here, we study mathematically the conditions under which mate-choice copying is advantageous on the basis of Bayesian decision theory. A female may observe the mate choice of another female, called the model female, who has performed an optimal choice based on her own judgment. The conditions required for the focal female to choose the same mate as that chosen by the model female should depend on the male's appearance to her, the reliability of her own judgment of male quality, and the reliability of the model females. When three or more females are involved, the optimal mate choice critically depends on whether multiple model females make decisions independently or they themselves copy the choices of others. If two equally reliable females choose different males, the choice of the second female, made knowing the choice of the first, should have a stronger effect on the choice of the third (focal) female. This "last-choice precedence" should be tested experimentally.

  20. 基于结构方程模型的通勤交通方式选择%Commute Traffic Mode Choice Based on Structural Equation Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    严海; 王熙蕊; 梁文博; 孔令鹏

    2015-01-01

    基于以往出行方式选择的相关研究中,大部分是基于个体属性对于方式选择的影响,而针对各类出行者特性与出行方式特征的关联性分析较少的情况,以拥有小汽车的中长距离通勤者为研究对象,提取相关的个体属性参数和交通方式特性参数构建结构方程模型,分析其个体属性与公交和小汽车出行特征之间的相互影响,从而探索各因素之间的关系以及对公交出行意愿的影响方向与程度。研究结果表明:个体的经济水平会对方式选择产生根本性的影响,更短的停车后步行时间、低廉的停车费用或充足的停车设施泊位供给会鼓励出行者选择自驾出行,而减少公交等车换乘时间,提高公交运行时速则会增强公交的吸引力,这对于城市中心区制定引导居民公交出行对策有一定借鉴意义。%Previous traffic mode researches are mainly based on the influences of individual characteristics to the traffic mode choice, and researches on the correlation analysis of different kinds of individual specialties and different traffic mode features are very limited. Taking the medium and long distance commuters as subjects, a structural equation model was built in this paper by extracting selective parameters of individual specialty and traffic mode features. Meanwhile, interactions between the individual specialties and the traffic mode features of public transportation or self-driving were analyzed, and then the direction and degree of all effective factors and the public transportation willingness were captured. Results show that individual economic level has essential effect on the traffic mode choice. Less walking time after parking, lower parking fee and abundant parking spaces encourage people to commute by car. However, the public transportation attraction increases by reducing the waiting and transfer time, and improving the running speed. This paper has

  1. Propulsion System Choices and Their Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyner, Claude R., II; Levack, Daniel J. H.; Rhodes, Russell, E.; Robinson, John W.

    2010-01-01

    In defining a space vehicle architecture, the propulsion system and related subsystem choices will have a major influence on achieving the goals and objectives desired. There are many alternatives and the choices made must produce a system that meets the performance requirements, but at the same time also provide the greatest opportunity of reaching all of the required objectives. Recognizing the above, the SPST Functional Requirements subteam has drawn on the knowledge, expertise, and experience of its members, to develop insight that wiIJ effectively aid the architectural concept developer in making the appropriate choices consistent with the architecture goals. This data not only identifies many selected choices, but also, more importantly, presents the collective assessment of this subteam on the "pros" and the "cons" of these choices. The propulsion system choices with their pros and cons are presented in five major groups. A. System Integration Approach. Focused on the requirement for safety, reliability, dependability, maintainability, and low cost. B. Non-Chemical Propulsion. Focused on choice of propulsion type. C. Chemical Propulsion. Focused on propellant choice implications. D. Functional Integration. Focused on the degree of integration of the many propulsive and closely associated functions, and on the choice of the engine combustion power cycle. E. Thermal Management. Focused on propellant tank insulation and integration. Each of these groups is further broken down into subgroups, and at that level the consensus pros and cons are presented. The intended use of this paper is to provide a resource of focused material for architectural concept developers to use in designing new advanced systems including college design classes. It is also a possible source of input material for developing a model for designing and analyzing advanced concepts to help identify focused technology needs and their priorities.

  2. Combining and Comparing Consumers' Stated Preference Ratings and Choice Responses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Conlon, B.J.; Dellaert, B.G.C.; van Soest, A.H.O.

    2000-01-01

    In this study we develop and test an econometric model for combining choice and preference ratings data collected from the same set of individuals.Choice data are modeled using a multinomial logit framework, while preference data are modeled using an ordered response equation.Individual heterogeneit

  3. A Modified General Location Model for Noncompliance with Missing Data: Revisiting the New York City School Choice Scholarship Program Using Principal Stratification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Hui; Barnard, John; Rubin, Donald B.

    2010-01-01

    Missing data, especially when coupled with noncompliance, are a challenge even in the setting of randomized experiments. Although some existing methods can address each complication, it can be difficult to handle both of them simultaneously. This is true in the example of the New York City School Choice Scholarship Program, where both the…

  4. Evaluation Model for Applying an E-Learning System in a Course: An Analytic Hierarchy Process-Multi-Choice Goal Programming Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Teng-Chiao; Ho, Hui-Ping; Chang, Ching-Ter

    2014-01-01

    With the widespread use of the Internet, adopting e-learning systems in courses has gradually become more and more important in universities in Taiwan. However, because of limitations of teachers' time, selecting suitable online IT tools has become very important. This study proposes an analytic hierarchy process (AHP)-multi-choice goal…

  5. Fuzzy social choice theory

    CERN Document Server

    B Gibilisco, Michael; E Albert, Karen; N Mordeson, John; J Wierman, Mark; D Clark, Terry

    2014-01-01

    This book offers a comprehensive analysis of the social choice literature and shows, by applying fuzzy sets, how the use of fuzzy preferences, rather than that of strict ones, may affect the social choice theorems. To do this, the book explores the presupposition of rationality within the fuzzy framework and shows that the two conditions for rationality, completeness and transitivity, do exist with fuzzy preferences. Specifically, this book examines: the conditions under which a maximal set exists; the Arrow’s theorem;  the Gibbard-Satterthwaite theorem; and the median voter theorem.  After showing that a non-empty maximal set does exists for fuzzy preference relations, this book goes on to demonstrating the existence of a fuzzy aggregation rule satisfying all five Arrowian conditions, including non-dictatorship. While the Gibbard-Satterthwaite theorem only considers individual fuzzy preferences, this work shows that both individuals and groups can choose alternatives to various degrees, resulting in a so...

  6. Complex Strategic Choices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leleur, Steen

    Effective decision making requires a clear methodology, particularly in a complex world of globalisation. Institutions and companies in all disciplines and sectors are faced with increasingly multi-faceted areas of uncertainty which cannot always be effectively handled by traditional strategies....... Complex Strategic Choices provides clear principles and methods which can guide and support strategic decision making to face the many current challenges. By considering ways in which planning practices can be renewed and exploring the possibilities for acquiring awareness and tools to add value...... to strategic decision making, Complex Strategic Choices presents a methodology which is further illustrated by a number of case studies and example applications. Dr. Techn. Steen Leleur has adapted previously established research based on feedback and input from various conferences, journals and students...

  7. How Happiness Affects Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Cassie Mogilner; Jennifer Aaker; Sepandar D. Kamvar

    2012-01-01

    Consumers want to be happy, and marketers are increasingly trying to appeal to consumers' pursuit of happiness. However, the results of six studies reveal that what happiness means varies, and consumers' choices reflect those differences. In some cases, happiness is defined as feeling excited, and in other cases, happiness is defined as feeling calm. The type of happiness pursued is determined by one's temporal focus, such that individuals tend to choose more exciting options when focused on ...

  8. Mate choice on leks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balmford, A

    1991-03-01

    In lek-breeding animals, males defend tiny territories clustered into arenas, where females come to mate. Typically, most lek males secure relatively few copulations while a small number are highly successful. Recent studies suggest that the skewed distribution of matings seen at leks may be the result of females using a variety of criteria to select particular mating partners. Nevertheless, the possible benefits to females of mate choice at leks, where males offer neither resources nor paternal care, remain obscure.

  9. Topological social choice

    CERN Document Server

    1997-01-01

    The origins of this volume can be traced back to a conference on "Ethics, Economic and Business" organized by Columbia Busi­ ness School in March of 1993, and held in the splendid facilities of Columbia's Casa Italiana. Preliminary versions of several of the papers were presented at that meeting. In July 1994 the Fields Institute of Mathematical Sciences sponsored a workshop on "Geometry, Topology and Markets": additional papers and more refined versions of the original papers were presented there. They were published in their present versions in Social Choice and Wel­ fare, volume 14, number 2, 1997. The common aim of these workshops and this volume is to crystallize research in an area which has emerged rapidly in the last fifteen years, the area of topological approaches to social choice and the theory of games. The area is attracting increasing interest from social choice theorists, game theorists, mathematical econ­ omists and mathematicians, yet there is no authoritative collection of papers in the a...

  10. The choice that disappeared

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjerris, Mickey; Saxe, Henrik

    2013-01-01

    This article criticise the notion that ethical consumerism can solve the ethical issues related to sustainability and food production through an analysis of the complexity of the concept of sustainability as related to food choices. The current trend of leaving the political discussion and regula......This article criticise the notion that ethical consumerism can solve the ethical issues related to sustainability and food production through an analysis of the complexity of the concept of sustainability as related to food choices. The current trend of leaving the political discussion...... and regulation of the food area to the political consumer is shown to be problematic as shopping for sustainability might be much harder than initially believed due to the conflicting considerations entailed in the concept. Thus political consumerism may give way to fatalism as the complexity of choices become...... apparent and acts of citizenship increasingly are reduced to ethical consumerism supposed to be performed while shopping. The suggested solution is to let food policies be decided to a much higher degree through the political process engaging humans as citizens rather than consumers in the process....

  11. Social determinants of food choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, R

    1999-11-01

    Food choice is influenced by a large number of factors, including social and cultural factors. One method for trying to understand the impact of these factors is through the study of attitudes. Research is described which utilizes social psychological attitude models of attitude-behaviour relationships, in particular the Theory of Planned Behaviour. This approach has shown good prediction of behaviour, but there are a number of possible extensions to this basic model which might improve its utility. One such extension is the inclusion of measures of moral concern, which have been found to be important both for the choice of genetically-modified foods and also for foods to be eaten by others. It has been found to be difficult to effect dietary change, and there are a number of insights from social psychology which might address this difficulty. One is the phenomenon of optimistic bias, where individuals believe themselves to be at less risk from various hazards than the average person. This effect has been demonstrated for nutritional risks, and this might lead individuals to take less note of health education messages. Another concern is that individuals do not always have clear-cut attitudes, but rather can be ambivalent about food and about healthy eating. It is important, therefore, to have measures for this ambivalence, and an understanding of how it might impact on behaviour.

  12. Occupational Choice and Student Values

    Science.gov (United States)

    McSweeney, R. V.

    1973-01-01

    Article attempts to set out a way of measuring determination, the element capable of making students' occupational choice' a reality not just an ideal, by exploration of the part played by the value system in relation to occupational choice. (Author)

  13. Channel Choice: A Literature Review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard Madsen, Christian; Kræmmergaard, Pernille

    2015-01-01

    The channel choice branch of e-government studies citizens’ and businesses’ choice of channels for interacting with government, and how government organizations can integrate channels and migrate users towards the most cost-efficient channels. In spite of the valuable contributions offered no sys...... no systematic overview exist of channel choice. We present a literature review of channel choice studies in government to citizen context identifying authors, countries, methods, concepts, units of analysis, and theories, and offer suggestionsfor future studies....

  14. Evoked Emotions Predict Food Choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dalenberg, J.R.; Gutjar, S.; Horst, ter G.J.; Graaf, de C.; Renken, R.; Jager, G.

    2014-01-01

    In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Th

  15. Computational mate choice: theory and empirical evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellano, Sergio; Cadeddu, Giorgia; Cermelli, Paolo

    2012-06-01

    The present review is based on the thesis that mate choice results from information-processing mechanisms governed by computational rules and that, to understand how females choose their mates, we should identify which are the sources of information and how they are used to make decisions. We describe mate choice as a three-step computational process and for each step we present theories and review empirical evidence. The first step is a perceptual process. It describes the acquisition of evidence, that is, how females use multiple cues and signals to assign an attractiveness value to prospective mates (the preference function hypothesis). The second step is a decisional process. It describes the construction of the decision variable (DV), which integrates evidence (private information by direct assessment), priors (public information), and value (perceived utility) of prospective mates into a quantity that is used by a decision rule (DR) to produce a choice. We make the assumption that females are optimal Bayesian decision makers and we derive a formal model of DV that can explain the effects of preference functions, mate copying, social context, and females' state and condition on the patterns of mate choice. The third step of mating decision is a deliberative process that depends on the DRs. We identify two main categories of DRs (absolute and comparative rules), and review the normative models of mate sampling tactics associated to them. We highlight the limits of the normative approach and present a class of computational models (sequential-sampling models) that are based on the assumption that DVs accumulate noisy evidence over time until a decision threshold is reached. These models force us to rethink the dichotomy between comparative and absolute decision rules, between discrimination and recognition, and even between rational and irrational choice. Since they have a robust biological basis, we think they may represent a useful theoretical tool for

  16. Model izbora motocikla za potrebe saobraćajne podrške vojske / Model of motorcycle choice for traffic support needs in the military of Serbia and Montenegro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Predrag Stamenković

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Motocikli koji se koriste u jedinicama za regulisanje i kontrolu saobraćaja u Vojsci treba da imaju takve tehničko-eksploatacione karakteristike koje će u toku eksploatacionog perioda u potpunosti zadovoljiti stroge zahteve regulisanja i kontrole vojnog putnog saobraćaja i poboljšati kvalitet saobraćajne podrške u suvremenim borbenim dejstvima. Pri optimalnom izboru motocikla važno je razmatrati karakteristike motocikla i zahteve koje treba da ispuni. U radu je prikazan model izbora motocikala primenom metode višekriterijumskog rangiranja Promethee. / Motorcycles used in traffic direct and control units in the Military of Serbia and Montenegro should have such technical and operational characteristics that -will completely meet strict demands for directing and controlling military traffic and that -will improve the quality of traffic support in modern combat conditions. It is important to discuss characteristics of a motorcycle and demands it has to meet -when choosing "optimal" motorcycle model. This paper shows model of motorcycle choice using Promethee method of multiple ranging criteria.

  17. Making Healthy Choices Easier

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Pelle Guldborg; Skov, Laurits Rohden; Skov, Katrine Lund

    2016-01-01

    this character and its ethical implication with a special emphasis on the compatibility of nudging with traditional regulation, special domains of experience, and the need for a more nuanced approach to the ethical debate. The aim is to advance readers understanding and give guidance to those who consider....... However, integration and testing of the nudge approach as part of more comprehensive public health strategies aimed at making healthy choices easier is being threatened by inadequate understandings of its scientific character, relationship with regulation and its ethical implications. This article reviews...

  18. Overconfidence and Career Choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulz, Jonathan F; Thöni, Christian

    2016-01-01

    People self-assess their relative ability when making career choices. Thus, confidence in their own abilities is likely an important factor for selection into various career paths. In a sample of 711 first-year students we examine whether there are systematic differences in confidence levels across fields of study. We find that our experimental confidence measures significantly vary between fields of study: While students in business related academic disciplines (Political Science, Law, Economics, and Business Administration) exhibit the highest confidence levels, students of Humanities range at the other end of the scale. This may have important implications for subsequent earnings and professions students select themselves in.

  19. Making Healthy Choices Easier

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guldborg Hansen, Pelle; Skov, Laurits Rohden; Lund Skov, Katrine

    2016-01-01

    . However, integration and testing of the nudge approach as part of more comprehensive public health strategies aimed at making healthy choices easier is being threatened by inadequate understandings of its scientific character, relationship with regulation and its ethical implications. This article reviews...... this character and its ethical implication with a special emphasis on the compatibility of nudging with traditional regulation, special domains of experience, and the need for a more nuanced approach to the ethical debate. The aim is to advance readers understanding and give guidance to those who consider...

  20. Research on Online Shopping Choice Behavior Based on Nested Logit Model%基于巢式Logit模型的网上购物选择行为研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蔡敏; 商滔

    2015-01-01

    基于Gumbel分布和多项Logit模型,提出建立顾客网上购物选择行为的巢式Logit模型,在SERVQUAL五维量表的基础上,设计了影响顾客购物选择行为的18个相关因素,同时将顾客购买行为分成共性部分和差异部分,采用极大似然法求解模型参数. 相比传统模型而言,巢式Logit模型具有更好的解释能力和稳定性,通过实例分析演示了模型的应用方法,为网上店铺优化服务质量提供了具体参考.%The nested Logit model of online shopping choice behavior is proposed based on Gumbel distribution and multinomial Logit model,and 18 related factors which affect customer's choice behavior are designed on the basis of five dimensional SERVQUAL scale.The shopping behavior is divided into common part and different part,maximum likelihood is used to solve the model parameters.Comparing to the traditional model,nested Logit model has better explanatory power and stability,through case study,the application of this model is demonstrated,which provide specific reference to optimize the quality of service for online stores.

  1. 基于浮动车数据的随机路径选择模型参数估计%Parameter Estimation of Stochastic Route Choice Model with Floating Car Data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李军; 赵长相; 唐晓宇; 谢良惠

    2014-01-01

    This study proposes an algorithm to estimate the parameter of Logit route choice model in urban road network with multinomial OD pairs utilizing taxi-floating car data. The relative route impedance is used and the Logit diversion parameter for whole network can be described by one unified dimensionless parameter. The discrete route choice probabilities are converted to continuous form with consideration of the weight of the numbers of trips, and a cumulative function relationship between route choice probability and relative impedance is re-derived from the original Logit route choice model. The least squares method is utilized to estimate of the unified parameter. The numerical example from taxi GPS data of Guangzhou shows that the goodness fit is excellent and the proposed algorithm is effective and convenient to model the route choice behavior with available and massive floating car data.%提出利用浮动车出行数据对城市路网多OD对logit随机路径选择模型参数估计方法。首先采用相对阻抗,实现logit模型参数无量纲化和单一化,将离散多项logit模型转化为相对阻抗的连续概率模型;然后对多OD对的浮动车数据进行分区和权重处理,计算得到概率分布;最后在推导连续型概率密度和累积概率函数基础上,利用最小二乘法进行参数估计。以广州市浮动车数据对方法进行验证,结果拟合优度高,所得参数可有效反映实际路径选择行为。方法简单实用,特别适用于利用海量浮动车数据进行路径选择行为分析。

  2. Model-based choice between different alternatives of solid waste management applied to the province of Trent; Applicazione di un modello decisionale per la gestione dei rifiuti solidi al caso del Trentino

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Canziani, R. [Milan Politecnico, Milan (Italy). Dipt. di Ingegneria Idraulica, Ambientale e del Rilevamento; Ragazzi, M. [Trent Univ., Trent (Italy). Dipt. di Ingegneria Civile e Ambientale; Tonolli, E.

    2000-06-01

    Model-based decision systems are useful tools that may help decision makers in defining the terms of any problem, identifying the objectives, suggesting and comparing different alternative solutions, and avoiding those which are ineffective and/or inefficient. A model for supporting decision in the choice of a municipal solid waste management scheme in the Province of Trent is presented here. The model is based on the so-called analytic hierarchy process (AHP), extensively used in life-cycle assessment procedures and is basically an application of multiple-criteria analysis. This method allows a comparison between different choices based on a priority scale defined by the decision maker and allows to identify which choice is more consistent with the original priority scale. Each choice is described by several environmental, economic and technical indicators. Different weights are given to each indicator, according to the application involved in the alternative (e.g.: a heavier weight will be given to groundwater pollution due to landfills than to incineration). At the end of the AHP, a weighted average will yield the final score associated to each choice. Indicators have been taken by literature and cover environmental issues (such as global warming potential, acidification potential, human toxicological classification for air and water), economic issues (such as unit disposal cost), energy-related issues (such as material recovery ratios, the period of time during which final disposal of residues is assured by landfills, without exporting waste outside the Province). In particular, two alternative choices have been compared. The first is the waste management provincial plan of Trent, in which landfills still play a major role. The second is more oriented towards energy-recovery incineration. The model considered all the indicators listed above simultaneously and the final result showed that the second choice gains a higher score, mainly because environmental and

  3. Machining strategy choice: performance VIEWER

    CERN Document Server

    Tapie, Laurent; Anselmetti, Bernard

    2009-01-01

    Nowadays high speed machining (HSM) machine tool combines productivity and part quality. So mould and die maker invested in HSM. Die and mould features are more and more complex shaped. Thus, it is difficult to choose the best machining strategy according to part shape. Geometrical analysis of machining features is not sufficient to make an optimal choice. Some research show that security, technical, functional and economical constrains must be taken into account to elaborate a machining strategy. During complex shape machining, production system limits induce feed rate decreases, thus loss of productivity, in some part areas. In this paper we propose to analyse these areas by estimating tool path quality. First we perform experiments on HSM machine tool to determine trajectory impact on machine tool behaviour. Then, we extract critical criteria and establish models of performance loss. Our work is focused on machine tool kinematical performance and numerical controller unit calculation capacity. We implement...

  4. The determinants of Dutch capital structure choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Linda H.; Jiang, George J.

    2001-01-01

    This paper uses the structural equation modeling (SEM) technique to empirically test the determinants of capital structure choice for Dutch firms. We include major factors identified by capital structure theories and construct proxies for these factors with consideration of specific institutional se

  5. Choice Shift in Opinion Network Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabbay, Michael

    Choice shift is a phenomenon associated with small group dynamics whereby group discussion causes group members to shift their opinions in a more extreme direction so that the mean post-discussion opinion exceeds the mean pre-discussion opinion. Also known as group polarization, choice shift is a robust experimental phenomenon and has been well-studied within social psychology. In opinion network models, shifts toward extremism are typically produced by the presence of stubborn agents at the extremes of the opinion axis, whose opinions are much more resistant to change than moderate agents. However, we present a model in which choice shift can arise without the assumption of stubborn agents; the model evolves member opinions and uncertainties using coupled nonlinear differential equations. In addition, we briefly describe the results of a recent experiment conducted involving online group discussion concerning the outcome of National Football League games are described. The model predictions concerning the effects of network structure, disagreement level, and team choice (favorite or underdog) are in accord with the experimental results. This research was funded by the Office of Naval Research and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency.

  6. Empirical Study and Modeling of Variable Message Signs on Route Choice Behavior%VMS对驾驶员路径选择影响的实证研究与建模

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王卫卫; 赵小梅; 李新刚; 谢东繁

    2013-01-01

    Variable message signs (VMS) frequently influence driver' s route choice behavior through providing instantaneous traffic information.It is one of the most important components of intelligent transportation system (ITS),and an efficient method to release traffic congestion.To quantitatively analyze the effects of VMS on drivers' route choice,this study makes the SP survey on drivers that have more than one year driving experience.Then,the data are analyzed by SPSS20.0,and the ordinal classification Logit models are used to reflect the route choice behavior.Finally,the conclusion is presented:route choice behavior according to VMS is highly related to driving style,travel time and accuracy of VMS.%可变信息板(VMS)通过发布实时的道路交通信息引导驾驶员的路径选择行为,是智能交通系统的重要组成部分之一,也是大城市缓解交通拥堵所采取的方法之一.为了定量分析VMS对驾驶员路径选择行为所产生的影响,本文采用SP调查法针对驾龄在1年以上的驾驶员进行问卷调查,使用SPSS20.0软件对调查数据进行分析,并在此基础上建立VMS诱导条件下驾驶员改变路径频率的有序多分类Logit模型,得出结论,驾驶员根据VMS所提供信息进行路径选择的主要影响因素为驾驶风格、出行时间、VMS可信度.

  7. Axiom of choice

    CERN Document Server

    Herrlich, Horst

    2006-01-01

    AC, the axiom of choice, because of its non-constructive character, is the most controversial mathematical axiom, shunned by some, used indiscriminately by others. This treatise shows paradigmatically that: Disasters happen without AC: Many fundamental mathematical results fail (being equivalent in ZF to AC or to some weak form of AC). Disasters happen with AC: Many undesirable mathematical monsters are being created (e.g., non measurable sets and undeterminate games). Some beautiful mathematical theorems hold only if AC is replaced by some alternative axiom, contradicting AC (e.g., by AD, the axiom of determinateness). Illuminating examples are drawn from diverse areas of mathematics, particularly from general topology, but also from algebra, order theory, elementary analysis, measure theory, game theory, and graph theory.

  8. Prediction of Citizens’ Decisions on Transport Mode Choice in Bandung City, Indonesia by Using General Linear Model Given existing Level of Pedestrian Friendly Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ariva Sugandi Permana

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available 800x600 Significant contribution of non-motorized transport to energy and environment has changed the view of people on walking or cycling as one of transport modes. While promoting mass rapid transport, modern cities tend to promote pedestrianization as well to encourage people to walk instead of relying on motorized transport. Creating pedestrian friendly environment in particular parts of the city, especially in CBD, is one such attempt. This study tries to investigate the correlation between perceptions of the citizens on pedestrian friendly environment (PFE and their decision on the choices of transport modes. The central business district of Bandung City in Indonesia was chosen as the study area. A questionnaire-based research was used to acquire data on citizens’ perception. Eight variables were employed to understand citizens’ perception on PFE. The result shows that PFE does influence citizens’ decision on their transport modes choice. Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4

  9. A Common Mechanism Underlying Food Choice and Social Decisions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian Krajbich

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others' benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making.

  10. A Common Mechanism Underlying Food Choice and Social Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krajbich, Ian; Hare, Todd; Bartling, Björn; Morishima, Yosuke; Fehr, Ernst

    2015-10-01

    People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others' benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making.

  11. Pairomics, the omics way to mate choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dani, Sergio Ulhoa; März, Winfried; Neves, Paulo Mauricio Serrano; Walter, Gerhard Franz

    2013-10-01

    The core aspects of the biology and evolution of sexual reproduction are reviewed with a focus on the diploid, sexually reproducing, outbreeding, polymorphic, unspecialized, altricial and cultural human species. Human mate choice and pair bonding are viewed as central to individuals' lives and to the evolution of the species, and genetic assistance in reproduction is viewed as a universal human right. Pairomics is defined as an emerging branch of the omics science devoted to the study of mate choice at the genomic level and its consequences for present and future generations. In pairomics, comprehensive genetic information of individual genomes is stored in a database. Computational tools are employed to analyze the mating schemes and rules that govern mating among the members of the database. Mating models and algorithms simulate the outcomes of mating any given genome with each of a number of genomes represented in the database. The analyses and simulations may help to understand mating schemes and their outcomes, and also contribute a new cue to the multicued schemes of mate choice. The scientific, medical, evolutionary, ethical, legal and social implications of pairomics are far reaching. The use of genetic information as a search tool in mate choice may influence our health, lifestyle, behavior and culture. As knowledge on genomics, population genetics and gene-environment interactions, as well as the size of genomic databases expand, so does the ability of pairomics to investigate and predict the consequences of mate choice for the present and future generations.

  12. Anxiety and Search during Food Choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Torben; Uth Thomsen, Thyra; Mukherjee, Ashkesh

    2011-01-01

    Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the effect of anxiety on information search during food choice and to test a key moderator of the effect of anxiety on search, namely attitude towards nutritional claims. Design/methodology/approach – By means of qualitative study the paper investigates...... the notion that consumers experience anxiety about health outcomes during food choice. Further, by means of structural equation modelling based on two studies with representative samples of Danish consumers, the paper investigates the effects outlined above. Findings – The authors show that anxiety during...... food choice increases information search in four product categories – ready dinner meals, salad dressing, biscuits, and cakes. Further, the results show that the positive effect of anxiety on information search is stronger when consumers have a less favourable attitude towards nutritional claims...

  13. Interpreters' notes. On the choice of language

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dam, Helle Vrønning

    2004-01-01

    , on the other. The aim of the study is to explore what governs conference interpreters' choice of language for their notes. The categories traditionally used to discuss, describe and explain this choice are those of 'source language' and 'target language', and these categories are therefore subject...... to particular scrutiny here. However, somewhat surprisingly, the results of the analyses indicate that the choice of language in note-taking is governed mainly by the status of the language in the interpreters' language combination, i.e. whether it is an A- or a B-language, and much less by its status...... in the interpreting task, i.e. whether it functions as the source or the target language. Drawing on the concept of processing capacity and the Effort Model of consecutive, a tentative explanation of these findings is suggested....

  14. Latent factors and route choice behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    . A reliable dataset was prepared through measures of internal consistency and sampling adequacy, and data were analyzed with a proper application of factor analysis to the route choice context. For the dataset obtained from the survey, six latent constructs affecting driver behaviour were extracted and scores...... by proposing a methodology for collecting and analyzing behavioural indicators and modelling route choices of individuals driving habitually from home to their workplace. A web-based survey was designed to collect attitudinal data and observed route choices among faculty and staff members of Turin Polytechnic...... on each factor for each survey participant were calculated. Path generation algorithms were examined with respect to observed behaviour, through a measure of reproduction with deterministic techniques of the routes indicated in the answers to the survey. Results presented evidence that the majority...

  15. Bounded rational choice behaviour: applications in transport

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Anders Fjendbo

    2016-01-01

    Even though the theory of rational behaviour has been challenged for almost 100 years, the dominant approach within the field of transport has been based upon the assumptions of neoclassical economics that we live in a world of rational decision makers who always have perfect knowledge and aim...... to maximise some subjective measure. Where other fields, for example within the social sciences and psychology, have made serious efforts to explore alternative models derived from principles of bounded rationality, this direction has begun to take speed within transport applications only recently. Bounded...... rational choice behaviour focuses on how the latter approach can be seriously taken into account within transport applications. As the editors discuss in the introduction, a true optimal choice can only be made if an individual has full and perfect information of all relevant attributes in his/her choice...

  16. Age-based differences in strategy use in choice tasks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darrell A. Worthy

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We incorporated behavioral and computational modeling techniques to examine age-based differences in strategy use in two four-choice decision-making tasks. Healthy older (aged 60-82 years and younger adults (aged 18-23 years performed one of two decision-making tasks that differed in the degree to which rewards for each option depended on the choices made on previous trials. In the choice-independent task rewards for each choice were not affected by the sequence of previous choices that had been made. In contrast, in the choice-dependent task rewards for each option were based on how often each option had been chosen in the past. We compared the fits of a model that assumes the use of a win-stay-lose-shift (WSLS heuristic to make decisions, to the fits of a reinforcement-learning (RL model that compared expected reward values for each option to make decisions. Younger adults were best fit by the RL model, while older adults showed significantly more evidence of being best fit by the WSLS heuristic model. This led older adults to perform worse than younger adults in the choice-independent task, but better in the choice-dependent task. These results coincide with previous work in our labs that also found better performance for older adults in choice-dependent tasks (Worthy et al., 2011, and the present results suggest that qualitative age-based differences in the strategies used in choice tasks may underlie older adults’ advantage in choice-dependent tasks. We discuss possible factors behind these differences such as neurobiological changes associated with aging, and increased use of heuristics by older adults.

  17. Choice and privatisation in Swedish primary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anell, Anders

    2011-10-01

    In 2007, a new wave of local reforms involving choice for the population and privatisation of providers was initiated in Swedish primary care. Important objectives behind reforms were to strengthen the role of primary care and to improve performance in terms of access and responsiveness. The purpose of this article was to compare the characteristics of the new models and to discuss changes in financial incentives for providers and challenges regarding governance from the part of county councils. A majority of the models being introduced across the 21 county councils can best be described as innovative combinations between a comprehensive responsibility for providers and significant degrees of freedom regarding choice for the population. Key financial characteristics of fixed payment and comprehensive financial responsibility for providers may create financial incentives to under-provide care. Informed choices by the population, in combination with reasonably low barriers for providers to enter the primary care market, should theoretically counterbalance such incentives. To facilitate such competition is indeed a challenge, not only because of difficulties in implementing informed choices but also because the new models favour large and/or horizontally integrated providers. To prevent monopolistic behaviour, county councils may have to accept more competition as well as more governance over clinical practice than initially intended.

  18. Design, Model-choice and Application of Water Pump House of Float Glass Production%浮法玻璃生产线水泵房的设计、选型与应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱云波

    2012-01-01

    论述了浮法玻璃生产线循环水系统在设计、设备选型及生产运行中常见的问题及解决办法,总结了生产实践中如何节约用水、降低成本、提高企业经济效益。%The common troubles and corresponding solutions in design , equipment model-choice and production running of circulating water system of float glass production were described. Some steps for water conservation ,cost-reduction and enhancement of economic returns were discussed.

  19. The evolution of mate choice and mating biases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kokko, Hanna; Brooks, Robert; Jennions, Michael D; Morley, Josephine

    2003-03-22

    We review the current status of three well-established models (direct benefits, indirect benefits and sensory drive) and one newcomer (antagonistic chase-away) of the evolution of mate choice and the biases that are expressed during choice. We highlight the differences and commonalities in the underlying genetics and evolutionary dynamics of these models. We then argue that progress in understanding the evolution of mate choice is currently hampered by spurious distinctions among models and a misguided tendency to test the processes underlying each model as mutually exclusive alternatives. Finally, we suggest potentially fruitful directions for future theoretical and empirical research.

  20. Connecting cognition and consumer choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartels, Daniel M; Johnson, Eric J

    2015-02-01

    We describe what can be gained from connecting cognition and consumer choice by discussing two contexts ripe for interaction between the two fields. The first-context effects on choice-has already been addressed by cognitive science yielding insights about cognitive process but there is promise for more interaction. The second is learning and representation in choice where relevant theories in cognitive science could be informed by consumer choice, and in return, could pose and answer new questions. We conclude by discussing how these two fields of research stand to benefit from more interaction, citing examples of how interfaces of cognitive science with other fields have been illuminating for theories of cognition.

  1. Career choices of lesbian women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehtonen, Jukka

    2008-01-01

    I focus on lesbian women's career choices and analyse how they explain their choices in relation to their sexuality. In addition to personal accounts and experiences, I use survey data that shows that several factors influence lesbian women's occupational circumstances. The Sexual Minority Survey included 726 respondents, of which 415 are women. The survey was conducted as part of the project Sexual and Gender Minorities at Work. Although many lesbian women claim that their sexuality did not influence their career choices, their career choice processes seem to be linked in many ways with sexuality, gender, and heteronormativity in society.

  2. Current issues in the analysis of consumer food choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunert, Klaus G.

    2001-01-01

    The Total Food Quality Model is used as a framework for highlighting a number of issues of current concern in understanding consumer food choice, and where promising avenues for research are seen. Consumer food choice is seen as a process where consumers form expectations about product quality...... before or during purchase, and then have a quality experience after the purchase. However, an increasing role of credence characteristics in food choice assigns communication a stronger role in understanding food choice, and consumer concern for food production technologies gives prior attitudes...

  3. The construction of optimal stated choice experiments theory and methods

    CERN Document Server

    Street, Deborah J

    2007-01-01

    The most comprehensive and applied discussion of stated choice experiment constructions available The Construction of Optimal Stated Choice Experiments provides an accessible introduction to the construction methods needed to create the best possible designs for use in modeling decision-making. Many aspects of the design of a generic stated choice experiment are independent of its area of application, and until now there has been no single book describing these constructions. This book begins with a brief description of the various areas where stated choice experiments are applicable, including marketing and health economics, transportation, environmental resource economics, and public welfare analysis. The authors focus on recent research results on the construction of optimal and near-optimal choice experiments and conclude with guidelines and insight on how to properly implement these results. Features of the book include: Construction of generic stated choice experiments for the estimation of main effects...

  4. 基于时间剩余的随机后悔最小化路径选择%Route Choice Behaviour Based on Time Surplus Random Regret-minimization Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李梦甜; 纪翔峰; 张健; 冉斌

    2014-01-01

    出行者路径选择行为的正确性直接影响到交通规划“四阶段”模型最后一步交通分配的可靠性,对交通规划领域具有重要意义。近年来,为了克服出行者路径选择主要理论(随机效用最大化模型)存在的问题,Chorus提出了随机后悔最小化模型。本文借用经济学领域中的无差异曲线概念,建立基于时间剩余的出行时间和出行费用双重约束下的随机后悔最小化模型,并对模型中存在的路径重叠和路径感知方差问题进行改进。最后运用示例性路网进行数值检验。结果显示,改进模型更加合理,具有更好的可靠性。%The last step of conventional four-stage transport planning model, traffic assignment, is mainly based on the results of modeling the route choice behaviour of travellers. In order to overcome the drawbacks for the majority of travel choice model, random utility-maximization model, Chorus presented an alternative named random regret-minimization model. This paper proposes a dual-constrained random regret model rooted in the economic theory of indifference curve. Considering the case of overlapping and route perception variance, an improved formulation is provided, and the proposed model is tested in sample networks. Numerical results demonstrate the validity of the formulations.

  5. Proving the Viability of a School Choice Voucher. Policy Brief

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haller, Scott

    2015-01-01

    A recent Pioneer Institute report written by Ken Ardon and Cara Stilling Candal, "Modeling Urban Scholarship Vouchers in Massachusetts," explores the viability of a school choice voucher program in the Commonwealth. Nationally, school choice has been shown to improve parent satisfaction and student achievement, reduce racial segregation,…

  6. Explaining Choice and Share of Category Requirements of Biologic Meat

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.C. Verhoef (Peter); K. Vlagsma-Brangule (Kristine)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we examine factors determining choice and consumption of biologic or organic meat. In our model explaining choice and share of category requirements, we consider economic/marketing variables (quality, price, and distribution), emotions (fear, empathy, andguilt), social norm

  7. Latent lifestyle and mode choice decisions when travelling short distances

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo; Halldórsdóttir, Katrín; Nielsen, Otto Anker

    2016-01-01

    of a representative sample of the Danish population in the Copenhagen Region were analysed, and more specifically a latent class choice model was estimated to uncover latent lifestyle groups and choice specific travel behaviour. Results show that four lifestyle groups are identified in the population: car oriented...

  8. A Judgement-Based Framework for Analysing Adult Job Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Athanasou, James A.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to introduce a judgement-based framework for adult job and career choices. This approach is set out as a perceptual-judgemental-reinforcement approach. Job choice is viewed as cognitive acquisition over time and is epitomised by a learning process. Seven testable assumptions are derived from the model. (Contains 1…

  9. College Major Choice: An Analysis of Person-Environment Fit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Stephen R.; Umbach, Paul D.

    2006-01-01

    Although recent research suggests that congruence between students and their academic environment is critical for successful student outcomes, little research has been done on student college major choice. Using Holland's theory of careers, we analyze college major choice using a multinomial logit model. We use the CIRP Freshman Survey and…

  10. The impact of approximations and arbitrary choices on geophysical images

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valentine, A.P.; Trampert, J.A.

    2016-01-01

    Whenever a geophysical image is to be constructed, a variety of choices must be made. Some, such as those governing data selection and processing, or model parametrization, are somewhat arbitrary: there may be little reason to prefer one choice over another. Others, such as defining the theoretical

  11. Deafness, culture, and choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, N

    2002-10-01

    The recent controversy surrounding the choice, by a deaf lesbian couple, to have children who were themselves deaf, has focused attention on the ethics of choosing (apparent) disabilities for children. Deaf activists argue that deafness is not a disability, but instead the constitutive condition of access to a rich culture. Being deaf carries disadvantages with it, but these are a product of discrimination, not of the condition itself. It is, however, implausible to think that all the disadvantages which stem from deafness are social in origin. Moreover, though it may be true that being deaf carries with it the important compensation of access to a rich culture, no physical condition is required for such access. Cultures are simply the kind of things to which we are born, and therefore to which the children of deaf parents, hearing or deaf, normally belong. Thus these parents are making a mistake in choosing deafness for their children. Given their own experience of isolation as children, however, it is a mistake which is understandable, and our reaction to them ought to be compassion, not condemnation.

  12. Probability and rational choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Botting

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper I will discuss the rationality of reasoning about the future. There are two things that we might like to know about the future: which hypotheses are true and what will happen next. To put it in philosophical language, I aim to show that there are methods by which inferring to a generalization (selecting a hypothesis and inferring to the next instance (singular predictive inference can be shown to be normative and the method itself shown to be rational, where this is due in part to being based on evidence (although not in the same way and in part on a prior rational choice. I will also argue that these two inferences have been confused, being distinct not only conceptually (as nobody disputes but also in their results (the value given to the probability of the hypothesis being not in general that given to the next instance and that methods that are adequate for one are not by themselves adequate for the other. A number of debates over method founder on this confusion and do not show what the debaters think they show.

  13. Does the number of choice sets matter? Results from a web survey applying a discrete choice experiment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bech, Mickael; Kjær, Trine; Lauridsen, Jørgen Trankjær

    2011-01-01

    Optimising the design of discrete choice experiments (DCE) involves maximising not only the statistical efficiency, but also how the nature and complexity of the experiment itself affects model parameters and variance. The present paper contributes by investigating the impact of the number of DCE...... in standard deviations for WTP estimates or goodness-of-fit statistics. Respondents exposed to 17 choice sets had somewhat higher response variance compared to those exposed to 5 choice sets, indicating that cognitive burden may increase with the number of choice sets beyond a certain threshold. Overall, our...

  14. Diabetes and diet: food choices.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Niewind, A.C.

    1989-01-01

    This thesis reports on the food choices of diabetic patients. Two studies were undertaken considering the barriers these patients experience with the diabetic diet. Furthermore, the changes in food choices during the first years after the diagnosis of insulin-dependent diabetes as well as patients,

  15. Perception bias in route choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vreeswijk, J.D.; Thomas, T.; Berkum, van E.C.; Arem, van B.

    2014-01-01

    Travel time is probably one of the most studied attributes in route choice. Recently, perception of travel time received more attention as several studies have shown its importance in explaining route choice behavior. In particular, travel time estimates by travelers appear to be biased against non-

  16. College Choice in the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Christine Joy

    2009-01-01

    This descriptive and correlational study examined the applicability of major U.S. college choice factors to Philippine high school seniors. A sample of 226 students from a private school in Manila completed the College Choice Survey for High School Seniors. Cronbach's alpha for the survey composite index was 0.933. The purposes of this…

  17. Educational Choice. A Background Paper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quality Education for Minorities Network, Washington, DC.

    This paper addresses school choice, one proposal to address parental involvement concerns, focusing on historical background, definitions, rationale for advocating choice, implementation strategies, and implications for minorities and low-income families. In the past, transfer payment programs such as tuition tax credits and vouchers were…

  18. School Choice in South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maile, Simeon

    2004-01-01

    In this article, the author investigates the basic elements of choice and markets theory. In recent years, children were moving from rural and township schools to suburban White schools. This trend emerged in the late 1980s and simmered after the demise of apartheid. At face value, school choice appears to be happening merely for the reason of…

  19. Optimal Portfolio Choice with Annuitization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koijen, R.S.J.; Nijman, T.E.; Werker, B.J.M.

    2006-01-01

    We study the optimal consumption and portfolio choice problem over an individual's life-cycle taking into account annuity risk at retirement. Optimally, the investor allocates wealth at retirement to nominal, inflation-linked, and variable annuities and conditions this choice on the state of the eco

  20. "If you have the flu symptoms, your asymptomatic spouse may better answer the willingness-to-pay question". Evidence from a double-bounded dichotomous choice model with heterogeneous anchoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarzinger, Michaël; Carrat, Fabrice; Luchini, Stéphane

    2009-07-01

    The small sample size of contingent valuation (CV) surveys conducted in patients may have limited the use of the single-bounded (SB) dichotomous choice format which is recommended in environmental economics. In this paper, we explore two ways to increase the statistical efficiency of the SB format: (1) by the inclusion of proxies in addition to patients; (2) by the addition of a follow-up dichotomous question, i.e. the double-bounded (DB) dichotomous choice format. We found that patients (n=223) and spouses (n=64) answering on behalf of the patient had on average a similar willingness-to-pay for earlier alleviation of flu symptoms. However, a patient was significantly more likely to anchor his/her answer on the first bid as compared to a spouse. Finally, our original DB model with shift effect and heterogeneous anchoring reconciled the discrepancies found in willingness-to-pay statistics between SB and DB models in keeping with increased statistical efficiency.

  1. Revenue Management Model for High-Speed Railway Based on Traveler Choice%基于旅客选择的高速铁路客运收益管理研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张力; 蓝伯雄

    2012-01-01

    本文旨在探讨收益管理在高速铁路客运中的应用,给出了存在多级票价时,考虑旅客选择行为的铁路客运收益管理模型,优化结果能够同时给出发车指令和座位出售限制.利用模拟数据对模型进行了数值试验,表明在不同路段长度下,考虑旅客选择行为的总收益较需求独立模型均有所提高,且随着票价等级增多而增长.%This paper deals with the application of revenue management to high-speed railway industry. We present a railway passenger revenue management model considering traveler choice behavior in case of multi-fare. The result gives the booking limits of each fare class and train scheduling as well. Numerical experiments on simulation data show that total revenue of the choice model is higher than those of independent demand, and surges with the increase of fare classes.

  2. Shared decision making, paternalism and patient choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandman, Lars; Munthe, Christian

    2010-03-01

    In patient centred care, shared decision making is a central feature and widely referred to as a norm for patient centred medical consultation. However, it is far from clear how to distinguish SDM from standard models and ideals for medical decision making, such as paternalism and patient choice, and e.g., whether paternalism and patient choice can involve a greater degree of the sort of sharing involved in SDM and still retain their essential features. In the article, different versions of SDM are explored, versions compatible with paternalism and patient choice as well as versions that go beyond these traditional decision making models. Whenever SDM is discussed or introduced it is of importance to be clear over which of these different versions are being pursued, since they connect to basic values and ideals of health care in different ways. It is further argued that we have reason to pursue versions of SDM involving, what is called, a high level dynamics in medical decision-making. This leaves four alternative models to choose between depending on how we balance between the values of patient best interest, patient autonomy, and an effective decision in terms of patient compliance or adherence: Shared Rational Deliberative Patient Choice, Shared Rational Deliberative Paternalism, Shared Rational Deliberative Joint Decision, and Professionally Driven Best Interest Compromise. In relation to these models it is argued that we ideally should use the Shared Rational Deliberative Joint Decision model. However, when the patient and professional fail to reach consensus we will have reason to pursue the Professionally Driven Best Interest Compromise model since this will best harmonise between the different values at stake: patient best interest, patient autonomy, patient adherence and a continued care relationship.

  3. Residential location choice of knowledge-workers: The role of amenities, workplace and lifestyle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frenkel, Amnon; Bendit, Edward; Kaplan, Sigal

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates the residential location choice of knowledge-workers at the intra-metropolitan level by applying discrete choice models. The models represent housing choices of 833 knowledge-workers in high-technology and financial services and analyze the relative importance of lifestyle...

  4. Stochastic Dynamic User Optimum Model with Departure Time Choice Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory%基于累积前景理论的出发时间选择SDUO模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张波; 隽志才; 林徐勋

    2013-01-01

    The existing dynamic traffic assignment models that deal with departure time choice generally construct utility or disutility functions based on the concepts of time-window and schedule delay. Travelers are assumed to be entirely rational and have full access to the information of dynamic traffic system. The reference points and the difference between arrival times within time-window are not considered in our assumption. There are often systematical deviations between traffic assignment results and real traffic (low. Traffic system is an uncertain dynamic system characterized as time-varying and stochastic. Constrained by the compound effect of imperfect traffic information, limited cognitive capability, value orientations and the degree of rationality, travelers are rarely able to perform their travel decisions with entire rationality. Researches of psychology and behavior science demonstrate that decisions under uncertainty appear to be bounded rational. As a descriptive theory, the Prospect Theory reveals psychological and behavioral mechanisms of people with bounded rationality, and demonstrates the patterns and human decision-making characteristics under risk. A few empirical studies experimenting on travelers have shown that travel behaviors under uncertainty, especially in the choices of departure time and route, and their attitude towards risk coincide with the main assumptions of Prospect Theory. Focused oncommuting trips during peak hours in the morning, this paper explores the usefulness of Prospect Theory in the dynamic traffic assignment. First, commuters are classified into early arrivals and late arrivals according to when they arrive at their workplace. The reference points for departure time and route choices are defined in a dynamic stochastic traffic network. The continuous functions of Prospect Theory for departure time and route choices in the condition of continuous traffic flow are constructed. A Stochastic Dynamic User Optimum (SDUO) model

  5. Addiction and choice: Theory and new data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gene M Heyman

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Addiction’s biological basis has been the focus of much research. The findings have persuaded experts and the public that drug use in addicts is compulsive. But the word compulsive identifies patterns of behavior. Thus, the question is not whether addiction has a biology, but whether it is sensible to say that addicts use drugs compulsively. Research shows most of those who meet the American Psychiatric Association’s criteria for addiction quit using illegal drugs by age thirty, that they usually quit without professional help, and that the correlates of quitting include legal concerns, economic pressures, and the desire for respect, particularly from family members. That is, the correlates of quitting are the correlates of choice. However, addiction is, by definition, a disorder, and thereby not beneficial in the long run. This is precisely the pattern of choices predicted by quantitative choice principles, such as the matching law, melioration, and hyperbolic discounting. Although the brain disease model of addiction is perceived by many as received knowledge it is not supported by research or logic. In contrast, well established, quantitative choice principles predict both the possibility and the details of addiction.

  6. 混合logit模型及其在合作医疗保险模式选择中的应用%Mixed logit model and its application in insurance choices of the new rural cooperative medical system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    贾伟娜; 王金金; 沈其君; 陈明; 张彦超; 朱胜军

    2011-01-01

    Objective To apply mixed logit model for analyzing the data of new rural cooperative medical with suitability and identify the factors affecting the residents' choices of insurance mode. Methods Hypothesis test of IIA was performed using the mogtest module of StatalO.O to test the eligibility of the condition. The mixed logit model was established to allow the parameters to vary in the population using SAS9.1 MDC module. Results The data in this study did not satisfy the HA assumption (P<0.01), so that the multinomial logit model was not applicable. The adjusted Estrella of the mixed logit model was 0.6658. Conclusion The mixed logit approach does not rely on the restrictive IIA assumption and allows for correlation patterns between choices and individual variation. This approach can help in the determination of the choices in new rural cooperative medical system.%目的 针对独立不相关(ILA)假设的限制,探讨混合logit模型在新型农村合作医疗中的适用性,并分析居民新型农村合作医疗保险模式选择的影响因素.方法 从选择项服从IIA假设人手,分析多项logit模型是否符合IIA假设条件.调用stata10.0软件的mlogtest模块进行IIA假设检验.再调用SAS9.1软件的MDC模块,建立了随机参数的混合logit模型.结果 在本次研究中,资料不能满足IIA假设(P<0.01),不能应用多项logit模型进行分析;建立的混合logit模型的调整Estrella值为0.6658.结论 混合logit方法完全摆脱了ILA假设的限制,允许选项之间存在相关性,同时可以体现不同居民保险模式选择的异质性,该方法在新型农村合作医疗中具有一定的适用性.

  7. Exploring expert opinion on the practicality and effectiveness of biosecurity measures on dairy farms in the United Kingdom using choice modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shortall, Orla; Green, Martin; Brennan, Marnie; Wapenaar, Wendela; Kaler, Jasmeet

    2017-03-01

    Biosecurity, defined as a series of measures aiming to stop disease-causing agents entering or leaving an area where farm animals are present, is very important for the continuing economic viability of the United Kingdom dairy sector, and for animal welfare. This study gathered expert opinion from farmers, veterinarians, consultants, academics, and government and industry representatives on the practicality and effectiveness of different biosecurity measures on dairy farms. The study used best-worst scaling, a technique that allows for greater discrimination between choices and avoids the variability in interpretation associated with other methods, such as Likert scales and ranking methods. Keeping a closed herd was rated as the most effective measure overall, and maintaining regular contact with the veterinarian was the most practical measure. Measures relating to knowledge, planning, and veterinary involvement; buying-in practices; and quarantine and treatment scored highly for effectiveness overall. Measures relating to visitors, equipment, pest control, and hygiene scored much lower for effectiveness. Overall, measures relating to direct animal-to-animal contact scored much higher for effectiveness than measures relating to indirect disease transmission. Some of the most effective measures were also rated as the least practical, such as keeping a closed herd and avoiding nose-to-nose contact between contiguous animals, suggesting that real barriers exist for farmers when implementing biosecurity measures on dairy farms. We observed heterogeneity in expert opinion on biosecurity measures; for example, veterinarians rated the effectiveness of consulting the veterinarian on biosecurity significantly more highly than dairy farmers, suggesting a greater need for veterinarians to promote their services on-farm. Still, both groups rated it as a practical measure, suggesting that the farmer-veterinarian relationship holds some advantages for the promotion of

  8. How does consumer knowledge affect environmentally sustainable choices?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peschel, Anne O.; Grebitus, Carola; Steiner, Bodo

    2016-01-01

    This paper examines consumers' knowledge and lifestyle profiles and preferences regarding two environmentally labeled food staples, potatoes and ground beef. Data from online choice experiments conducted in Canada and Germany are analyzed through latent class choice modeling to identify theinflue......This paper examines consumers' knowledge and lifestyle profiles and preferences regarding two environmentally labeled food staples, potatoes and ground beef. Data from online choice experiments conducted in Canada and Germany are analyzed through latent class choice modeling to identify...... theinfluence of consumer knowledge (subjective and objective knowledge as well as usage experience) on environmentally sustainable choices. We find that irrespective of product or country under investigation, high subjective and objective knowledge levels drive environmentally sustainable food choices....... Subjective knowledge was found to be more important in this context. Usage experience had relatively little impact on environmentally sustainable choices. Our results suggest that about 20% of consumers in both countries are ready to adopt footprint labels in their food choices. Another 10e20% could...

  9. City Women Confront New Choices

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1994-01-01

    THE Chinese economic reform has pushed society into a period of transformation. City women—especially career women—once again are confronted with new choices. Compared to Nora’s choice to leave or stay at home, as depicted in the Norwegian playwright Henrik Ibsen’s A Doll’s House, the Chinese career women’s choice is obviously more complicated. It involves social roles and the expectations society has about their gender. Several women doctoral students with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences recently talked about this issue.

  10. Rational choice in field archaelology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cătălin Pavel

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available In the present article I attempt to apply advances in the study of instrumental and epistemic rationality to field archaeology in order to gain insights into the ways archaeologists reason. The cognitive processes, particularly processes of decision making, that enable archaeologists to conduct the excavation in the trench have not been adequately studied so far. I take my cues from two different bodies of theory. I first inquire into the potential that rational choice theory (RCT may have in modeling archaeological behaviour, and I define subjective expected utility, which archaeologists attempt to maximize, in terms of knowledge acquisition and social gain. Following Elster’s criticism of RCT, I conclude that RCT’s standards for rational action do not correspond with those ostensibly used in field archaeology, but that instrumental rationality has a prominent role in the “archaeological experiment”. I further explore if models proposed as reaction to RCT may account for archaeological decision making. I focus on fast and frugal heuristics, and search for archaeological illustrations for some of the cognitive biases that are better documented in psychological literature. I document confirmation and congruence biases, the endowment effect, observer-expectancy bias, illusory correlation, clustering illusion, sunk cost bias, and anchoring, among others and I propose that some of these biases are used as cognitive tools by archaeologists at work and retain epistemic value. However, I find formal logic to be secondary in the development of archaeological reasoning, with default logic and defeasible logic being used instead. I emphasize scientific knowledge as an actively negotiated social product of human inquiry, and conclude that to describe rationality in field archaeology a bounded rationality model is the most promising avenue of investigation.

  11. A Study on the Tourist Destination Choice Model Constructed on the Base of Place Emotion%基于地方情感的旅游目的地选择模型建构研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    琼达; 赵宏杰

    2016-01-01

    Most of the researches about the construction of tourism destination model take the microeconomics, cognitive psychology and marketing as the fundamental theories, and rarely explore the tourists' decision-making behavior of tourism destination choice from the perspective of emotion connection between individual and place. This paper took tourist destination choice as the core concepts of research, combined with the concept of tourism destination image and place attachment about place emotion, put forward the path variables and logic framework of model construction according to the foundations theories and the results of research literature review. Finally, the purpose of this paper was to propose the tourist destination choice model constructed on the base of place emotion(The following was call“research model”) and it’s process steps. The major research conclusions showed that the process steps of research model were summarized as fllows: (1) the tourists perceive the attraction of tourist destination; (2) the tourists form the environment cognitive image for tourist destination; (3) the tourists form the sense of place for tourist destination and the tourism motivation to carry out tourism activities;(4) the tourists gather and integrate the information of tourist destination; (5) the tourists form the place familiarity and conative image for tourist destination;(6) the tourists form the place identity and visit behavior intention for tourist destination;(7) the tourists form or deepen the choice preference for tourist destination;(8) the tourists set up intention group for tourist destination and evaluation criteria of tourism destination choice;(9) the tourists evaluate the potential tourist destinations in the intention group; (10) potential tourist destinations are divided into three groups called yearning group, consideration group and ignore group by the tourists;(11) potential tourist destinations are once more divided into selection group and

  12. Strategy as Mutually Contingent Choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neil Martin

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Thomas Schelling’s The Strategy of Conflict carries significant behavioral implications which have been overlooked by economic readers. I argue that these implications are central to Schelling’s vision of game theory, that they fit well with recent advances in experimental psychology and behavioral economics, and provide a comprehensive framework that can inform research on strategy. In my view, Schelling develops a non-mathematical approach to strategy which anticipates on Gigerenzer and Selten’s “ecological rationality” program. This approach maps the processes involved in strategic reasoning and highlights their reliance on the particular information structure of interactive social environments. Building on this approach, I model strategy as a heuristic form of reasoning that governs the way in which individuals search for and provide cues in situations of mutually contingent choice. I conclude by examining how the reference to ecological rationality can help clarify Schelling’s contribution to game theory and outline potential avenues of research into strategic reasoning and interaction.

  13. Consumers' food choice and quality perception

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brunsø, Karen; Fjord, Thomas Ahle; Grunert, Klaus G.

    contrast to a perceived unwillingness to pay the higher prices this implies, and scepticism about industrial food production stands in contrast to busy lifestyles and a resulting demand for convenience. However, while the topics of food quality perception and choice have certainly become more complex...... of the research methods involved. We then describe the various elements of the model in more detail, based on four major quality dimensions - health, taste, process characteristics, convenience....

  14. Choice Task Complexity and Decision Strategy Selection

    OpenAIRE

    Swait, Joffre; Adamowicz, Wiktor L.

    1997-01-01

    The psychology, the marketing consumer behavior and, to a much smaller extent, the economics literature have long reported evidence that decision makers utilize different decision strategies depending upon many factors (person-specific, task-specific, etc.). Such observations have generally failed to affect the specification of choice models in commercial practice and academic research, both of which still tend to assume an utility maximizing, full information, indefatigable decision maker. T...

  15. A cognitive framework for mate choice and species recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phelps, Steven M; Rand, A Stanley; Ryan, Michael J

    2006-01-01

    Mating decisions contribute to both the fitness of individuals and the emergence of evolutionary diversity, yet little is known about their cognitive architecture. We propose a simple model that describes how preferences are translated into decisions and how seemingly disparate patterns of preference can emerge from a single perceptual process. The model proposes that females use error-prone estimates of attractiveness to select mates based on a simple decision rule: choose the most attractive available male that exceeds some minimal criterion. We test the model in the tungara frog, a well-characterized species with an apparent dissociation between mechanisms of mate choice and species recognition. As suggested by our model results, we find that a mate attraction feature alters assessments of species status. Next, we compare female preferences in one-choice and two-choice tests, contexts thought to emphasize species recognition and mate choice, respectively. To do so, we use the model to generate maximum-likelihood estimators of preference strengths from empirical data. We find that a single representation of preferences is sufficient to explain response probabilities in both contexts across a wide range of stimuli. In this species, mate choice and species recognition are accurately and simply summarized by our model. While the findings resolve long-standing anomalies, they also illustrate how models of choice can bridge theoretical and empirical treatments of animal decisions. The data demonstrate a remarkable congruity of perceptual processes across contexts, tasks, and taxa.

  16. 基于客户选择行为的网络零售配送时隙定价模型%The pricing model of time slot for internet retailing delivery based on customer choice behavior

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈淮莉; 卫亚运

    2014-01-01

    在B2C( Business to Customer)环境下,配送成本是薄利经营的网络零售商们最需要处理的关键问题。以保证网络零售商的收益,最大化利用各配送时隙的能力为目标,对B2 C环境下的在线订单配送时隙的定价进行了研究。根据客户具有在线时隙选择行为随机性的特点,引入效用函数建立基于Logit的选择概率公式。并且考虑各时隙选项的效用,剩余预订时间,以及剩余能力建立了时隙定价模型。最后通过算例验证了模型的有效性,并通过分析说明了定价对客户时隙选择行为的影响。%In B2C, a critical question that an online retailer who operates on very thin margins needs to address is the cost of home delivery. To ensure the benefits of online retailers and maximum utilization of each delivery time slot’s capacity, the pricing model of time slot for online order delivery in B2C was studied. According to the characteristics that customer online choice behavior was random, the utility function was introduced, and the choice formula based on Logit was presented. The pricing model was presented based on the utilities of time slots, booking horizon and availability of time slot. Finally, a set of examples were analyzed to verify the effectiveness of the model, and demonstrated the influence of pricing to the customer choice behavior.

  17. Delivering Subject Choice and Quality Assurance in Specialised Disciplines: The University of New England's Model of Subject Delivery at the University of Newcastle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunne, Kerry

    2008-01-01

    Using a new model of subject delivery, the University of New England (UNE--Armidale, Australia) offers specialist subjects at partner or host institutions. The model is a modified version of distance education. It is designed to meet the needs of on-campus students who wish to study a subject that their university is unable to offer as a full…

  18. The Non-universality of the Low-mass End of the IMF is Robust against the Choice of SSP Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spiniello, C.; Trager, S. C.; Koopmans, L. V. E.

    2015-01-01

    We perform a direct comparison of two state-of-the art single stellar population (SSP) models that have been used to demonstrate the non-universality of the low-mass end of the initial mass function (IMF) slope. The two public versions of the SSP models are restricted to either solar abundance patte

  19. Towards Human-Robot Teams : Model-Based Analysis of Human Decision Making in Two-Alternative Choice Tasks With Social Feedback

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stewart, Andrew; Cao, Ming; Nedic, Andrea; Tomlin, Damon; Leonard, Naomi Ehrich

    2012-01-01

    With a principled methodology for systematic design of human-robot decision-making teams as a motivating goal, we seek an analytic, model-based description of the influence of team and network design parameters on decision-making performance. Given that there are few reliably predictive models of hu

  20. Towards Human–Robot Teams : Model-Based Analysis of Human Decision Making in Two-Alternative Choice Tasks With Social Feedback

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stewart, Andrew; Cao, Ming; Nedic, Andrea; Tomlin, Damon; Ehrich Leonard, Naomi

    2012-01-01

    With a principled methodology for systematic design of human–robot decision-making teams as a motivating goal, we seek an analytic, model-based description of the influence of team and network design parameters on decision-making performance. Given that there are few reliably predictive models of hu

  1. How do stereotypes influence choice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaxel, Anne-Sophie

    2015-05-01

    In the study reported here, I tracked one process through which stereotypes affect choice. The Implicit Association Test (IAT) and a measurement of predecisional information distortion were used to assess the influence of the association between male gender and career on the evaluation of information related to the job performance of stereotypical targets (male) and nonstereotypical targets (female). When the IAT revealed a strong association between male gender and career and the installed leader in the choice process was a stereotypical target, decision makers supported the leader with more proleader distortion; when the IAT revealed a strong association between male gender and career and the installed leader in the choice process was a nonstereotypical target, decision makers supported the trailer with less antitrailer distortion. A stronger association between male gender and career therefore resulted in an upward shift of the evaluation related to the stereotypical target (both as a trailer and a leader), which subsequently biased choice.

  2. Diet Choices to Prevent Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Situations Pets and Animals myhealthfinder Food and Nutrition Healthy Food Choices Weight Loss and Diet Plans Nutrients and Nutritional Info Sugar and Sugar Substitutes Exercise and Fitness Exercise Basics Sports Safety Injury Rehabilitation Emotional Well- ...

  3. The Neuroscience of Consumer Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Ming; Yoon, Carolyn

    2015-01-01

    We review progress and challenges relating to scientific and applied goals of the nascent field of consumer neuroscience. Scientifically, substantial progress has been made in understanding the neurobiology of choice processes. Further advances, however, require researchers to begin clarifying the set of developmental and cognitive processes that shape and constrain choices. First, despite the centrality of preferences in theories of consumer choice, we still know little about where preferences come from and the underlying developmental processes. Second, the role of attention and memory processes in consumer choice remains poorly understood, despite importance ascribed to them in interpreting data from the field. The applied goal of consumer neuroscience concerns our ability to translate this understanding to augment prediction at the population level. Although the use of neuroscientific data for market-level predictions remains speculative, there is growing evidence of superiority in specific cases over existing market research techniques. PMID:26665152

  4. Modelling Water Level Influence on Habitat Choice and Food Availability for Zostera Feeding Brent Geese Branta bernicla in Non-Tidal Areas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, P.

    2000-01-01

    Brent geese Branta bernicla spring fattening around Agero, Denmark, alternate between feeding on saltmarshes and submerged Zostera beds in Limfjorden. It appeared from field observations that these alternations depended on the water level in Limfjorden. A model was developed to assess the impact ......). The models presented may be considered as tools in investigations of habitat use and carrying capacity of seagrass beds in non-tidal areas, where birds' access to feeding areas regularly may be hindered by high water levels....

  5. 我国西部欠发达地区金融体制改革的模式选择%The choice of financial reform model of underdeveloped areas in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李艳

    2014-01-01

    The financial system reform is an important part of economic reform. This paper analyzed the situations of financial system in China's less developed areas, and elaborated the model choice and driving points of financial system reform.%金融体制改革是经济体制改革的重要内容,本文在对我国西部欠发达地区金融体制运行现状进行分析的基础上,探讨了我国西部欠发达地区金融体制改革的模式选择及进一步推进金融体制改革的着力点。

  6. Choice of rainfall inputs for event-based rainfall-runoff modeling in a catchment with multiple rainfall stations using data-driven techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Tak Kwin; Talei, Amin; Alaghmand, Sina; Ooi, Melanie Po-Leen

    2017-02-01

    Input selection for data-driven rainfall-runoff models is an important task as these models find the relationship between rainfall and runoff by direct mapping of inputs to output. In this study, two different input selection methods were used: cross-correlation analysis (CCA), and a combination of mutual information and cross-correlation analyses (MICCA). Selected inputs were used to develop adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in Sungai Kayu Ara basin, Selangor, Malaysia. The study catchment has 10 rainfall stations and one discharge station located at the outlet of the catchment. A total of 24 rainfall-runoff events (10-min interval) from 1996 to 2004 were selected from which 18 events were used for training and the remaining 6 were reserved for validating (testing) the models. The results of ANFIS models then were compared against the ones obtained by conceptual model HEC-HMS. The CCA and MICCA methods selected the rainfall inputs only from 2 (stations 1 and 5) and 3 (stations 1, 3, and 5) rainfall stations, respectively. ANFIS model developed based on MICCA inputs (ANFIS-MICCA) performed slightly better than the one developed based on CCA inputs (ANFIS-CCA). ANFIS-CCA and ANFIS-MICCA were able to perform comparably to HEC-HMS model where rainfall data of all 10 stations had been used; however, in peak estimation, ANFIS-MICCA was the best model. The sensitivity analysis on HEC-HMS was conducted by recalibrating the model by using the same selected rainfall stations for ANFIS. It was concluded that HEC-HMS model performance deteriorates if the number of rainfall stations reduces. In general, ANFIS was found to be a reliable alternative for HEC-HMS in cases whereby not all rainfall stations are functioning. This study showed that the selected stations have received the highest total rain and rainfall intensity (stations 3 and 5). Moreover, the contributing rainfall stations selected by CCA and MICCA were found to be located near the outlet of

  7. Online Consumptions Prediction via Modeling User Behaviors and Choices%用户在线购买预测:一种基于用户操作序列和选择模型的方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    曾宪宇; 刘淇; 赵洪科; 徐童; 王怡君; 陈恩红

    2016-01-01

    电商网站的兴起与用户在线购物习惯的形成,带来了海量的在线消费行为数据。如何从这些行为数据(如点击数据)中建模用户对相似产品的比较和选择过程,进而准确预测用户的兴趣偏好和购买行为,对于提高产品的购买转化率具有重要意义。针对这一问题,提出了基于用户行为序列数据和选择模型的在线购买预测解决方案。具体而言,1)使用行为序列效用函数估计用户在购买周期(session)中的最佳替代商品,然后对购买商品和最佳替代商品建立基于潜在因子的选择模型(latent factor based choice model ,LF‐CM ),从而得到用户的购买偏好,实现对用户购买行为的预测。更进一步,为了充分地利用用户在每个购买周期的所有选择和比较信息,提高预测精度;2)提出了一种可以作用于购买周期内所有商品的排序学习模型(latent factor and sequence based choice model ,LFS‐CM ),它通过融合潜在因子和行为序列的效用函数,提高了购买预测的精度;3)使用大规模真实数据集在分布式环境下进行了实验,并与参照算法进行了对比,证实了所提出的2个方法在用户在线购买预测上的有效性。%The rise of electronic e‐commerce sites and the formation of the user’s online shopping habits ,have brought a huge amount of online consumer behavioral data .Mining users’ preferences from these behavioral logs (e .g .clicking data) and then predicting their final consumption choices are of great importance for improving the conversion rate of e‐commerce . Along this line , this paper proposes a way of combining users’ behavioral data and choice model to predict which item each user will finally consume . Specifically , we first estimate the optimum substitute in each consumption session by a utility function of users’ behavioral sequences ,and then we build a latent

  8. Internet Control or Internet Censorship? Comparing the Control Models of China, Singapore, and the United States to Guide Taiwan’s Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Jeffrey (Chien-Fei) Li

    2014-01-01

    Internet censorship refers to a government’s unjustified scrutiny and control of online speech or government-approved control measures. The danger of Internet censorship is its chilling effect and substantial harm on free speech, a cornerstone of democracy, in cyberspace. This article compares China’s blocking and filtering system, Singapore’s class license system, and the United States’ government-private partnership model and identifies the features of each model. This article also explore...

  9. [Strategic considerations on the design and choice of animal models for non-clinical investigations of cell-based medicinal products].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, Jörg; Schulz, Ronny M; Sanzenbacher, Ralf

    2015-11-01

    For the development of medicinal products animal models are still indispensable to demonstrate efficacy and safety prior to first use in humans. Advanced therapy medicinal products (ATMP), which include cell-based medicinal products (CBMP), differ in their pharmacology and toxicology compared to conventional pharmaceuticals, and thus, require an adapted regime for non-clinical development. Developers are, therefore, challenged to develop particular individual concepts and to reconcile these with regulatory agencies. Guidelines issued by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and other sources can provide direction.The published approaches for non-clinical testing of efficacy document that homologous animal models where the therapeutic effect is investigated in a disease-relevant animal model utilizing cells derived from the same species are commonly used. The challenge is that the selected model should reflect the human disease in all critical features and that the cells should be comparable to the investigated human medicinal product in terms of quality and biological activity. This is not achievable in all cases. In these cases, alternative methods may provide supplemental information. To demonstrate the scientific proof-of-concept (PoC), small animal models such as mice or rats are preferred. During the subsequent product development phase, large animal models (i.e. sheep, minipigs, dogs) must be considered, as they may better reflect the anatomical or physiological situation in humans. In addition to efficacy, those models may also be suitable to prove some safety aspects of ATMP (e.g. regarding dose finding, local tolerance, or undesired interactions and effects of the administered cells in the target tissue). In contrast, for evaluation of the two prominent endpoints for characterizing the safety of ATMP (i.e. biodistribution, tumorigenicity) heterologous small animal models, especially immunodeficient mouse strains

  10. Quantified Choice of Root-Mean-Square Errors of Approximation for Evaluation and Power Analysis of Small Differences between Structural Equation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Libo; Bentler, Peter M.

    2011-01-01

    MacCallum, Browne, and Cai (2006) proposed a new framework for evaluation and power analysis of small differences between nested structural equation models (SEMs). In their framework, the null and alternative hypotheses for testing a small difference in fit and its related power analyses were defined by some chosen root-mean-square error of…

  11. Using Heroes as Role Models in Values Education: A Comparison between Social Studies Textbooks and Prospective Teachers' Choice of Hero or Heroines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yazici, Sedat; Aslan, Mecnun

    2011-01-01

    This study explores the relationships between the frequency and identities of heroes as role models used in the social studies textbooks in teaching 20 core values and prospective teachers' preferences of heroes. The findings indicated that there are striking similarities and differences between these two variables. For gender variable, 97.4% of…

  12. Design Choices Underlying the Software as a Service (SaaS) Business Model from the User Perspective: Exploring the Fourth Wave of Outsourcing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joha, A.; Janssen, M.F.W.H.A.

    2012-01-01

    Software as a Service (SaaS) can be viewed as the fourth wave of outsourcing. SaaS is a relatively new type of service delivery model in which a service provider delivers its services over the web to many users on a pay per use or period basis. In the scarce literature available, the SaaS business m

  13. 二分选择模型在滨海旅游经济价值评价中的应用%The Application of Dichotomous Choice Model in Valuing Coastal Tourism Economic

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李作志; 王尔大; 苏敬勤

    2012-01-01

    本文以大连滨海旅游资源为例,采用二分选择模型条件评价法(CVM)评价海水和沙滩质量改善的经济价值,探索滨海旅游资源生态补偿的价值。研究发现采用Logit二分选择模型估算旅游者意愿支付(WTP)比采用Probit模型更适合滨海旅游资源经济价值评价;在计算WTP的均值解时,采用线性效用差函数更为简单实用。将该方法用于大连旅游景区海水和沙滩质量价值评价的研究,结果表明:采用Logit和Probit模型能够得到一致的WTP;文中采用单解释变量模型可以反应多个解释变量模型的计算结果;测算得到海水沙滩质量改善的非使用价值为215元/人,进而对旅游或环境资源的保护和可持续利用可以有更明确的定量认识。这种经济价值研究方法与过程对探索滨海旅游资源生态补偿的定性研究具有重要意义。%In this paper, we valued seawater and sand quality in Dalian beach area using the contingent valuation method (CVM) of dichotomous choice models, and explored the values of coastal tourism resources Eco-compensation. The researches indicate that it is more appropriate to use Logit dichotomous choice model for estimating tourists' willingness to pay (WTP) than using Probit model under discrete CVM. In calculating the mean value of WTP, it is more simplistic to apply a linear utility difference model. This model directly utilized to measure the economic value of Dalian coastal park seawater and sand quality. The results revealed that: (a) a consistent result was achieved in WTP measurement using both Logit and Probit dichotomous choice models; (b) using a single explanatory variable could generate the same results as using multiple explanatory variable model; (c) the estimated non-use value of the beach quality in Dalian coastal park is 215 RMB per person, and based on the result, sustainable protection and development of tourism or environmental

  14. Sex difference in choice of concealed or exposed refuge sites by preschool children viewing a model leopard in a playground simulation of antipredator behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard G. Coss

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The current study of preschool children characterizes a semi-natural extension of experimental questions on how human ancestors evaded predation when encountering dangerous felids. In a pretend game on a playground, we presented full-size leopard and deer models to children (N = 39 in a repeatedmeasures experimental design. Prior to viewing the model presented 15-m away, each child was instructed by the experimenter to go where she or he would feel safe. The rationale for this study was based on the anthropological construct of “sexual dinichism,” positing that, during the Pliocene, smaller-bodied hominin females engaged in more arboreal behavior than larger-bodied males. Consistent with this construct, our previous simulation research using images of an African rock outcrop showed that, after viewing a lion, girls preferred a tree as refuge rather than a crevice or large boulder whereas boys did not differentiate these refuge sites. In this follow-up study, we predicted that, after viewing the model leopard, the preschool girls would differ from the boys by not choosing enclosed refuge sites analogous to the crevice. Analyses of a contingency table for the leopard model supported this hypothesis by yielding a significant interaction of sex and refuge location (p = .031, d = .76, the source of which was a reliably larger percentage of girls not choosing concealed refuge (p = .005, d = 2.3. The interaction of sex and refuge location for the model deer was not significant (p > .5. Our findings suggest that, in contrast to the deer, the girls selected exposed playground refuge sites rather than concealing ones to maintain visual contact with the leopard as a contingency for future action

  15. A METHODOLOGY FOR THE CHOICE OF THE BEST FITTING CONTINUOUS-TIME STOCHASTIC MODELS OF CRUDE OIL PRICE: THE CASE OF RUSSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamidreza Mostafaei

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, it has been attempted to select the best continuous- time stochastic model, in order to describe and forecast the oil price of Russia, by information and statistics about oil price that has been available for oil price in the past. For this purpose, method of The Maximum Likelihood Estimation is implemented for estimation of the parameters of continuous-time stochastic processes. The result of unit root test with a structural break, reveals that time series of the crude oil price is a stationary series. The simulation of continuous-time stochastic processes and the mean square error between the simulated prices and the market ones shows that the Geometric Brownian Motion is the best model for the Russian crude oil price.

  16. Suboptimal choice behavior by pigeons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stagner, Jessica P; Zentall, Thomas R

    2010-06-01

    Contrary to the law of effect and optimal foraging theory, pigeons show suboptimal choice behavior by choosing an alternative that provides 20% reinforcement over another that provides 50% reinforcement. They choose the 20% reinforcement alternative--in which 20% of the time, that choice results in a stimulus that always predicts reinforcement, and 80% of the time, it results in another stimulus that predicts its absence--rather than the 50% reinforcement alternative, which results in one of two stimuli, each of which predicts reinforcement 50% of the time. This choice behavior may be related to suboptimal human monetary gambling behavior, because in both cases, the organism overemphasizes the infrequent occurrence of the winning event and underemphasizes the more frequent occurrence of the losing event.

  17. 基于代表性偏差的行为投资组合模型及实证%Optimal portfolio choice model and empirical analysis based on representation bias

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐绪松; 宋奇; 马莉莉

    2012-01-01

    代表性偏差这一心理特征分为横向代表性偏差和纵向代表性偏差,将其分别引入投资组合模型,研究了它们对投资者投资组合决策的影响.提出了代表性收益概念,从期望效用最大化的原则出发,把投资者的效用表示为期末收益和超额代表性收益的函数,建立了基于纵向代表性偏差的最优投资组合模型(横向类似),实证分析表明这一模型能够得到投资组合的有效前沿.%As a mental characteristic, vertical representation bias is introduced to portfolio choice model, to research its influence to investors' portfolio decision. This paper proposes Representation Return concept, and gives an investors' utility function of two variables -final return and Excess Representation Return, from the principle of expected utility maximization. Then establishes optimal portfolio model based on vertical representation bias, and give an empirical analysis showing that the model can obtain efficient frontier of investment portfolio.

  18. Analysis on Business Model choice and Emerging Capital Allocation f rom the Viewpoint of Enterprise Growth%商业模式选择与新兴资本配置研究--基于企业成长视角

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    许秀梅

    2015-01-01

    Under new economic environment ,technology ,information and knowledge replace traditional factors such as hu‐man ,property and material and become the fundamental driving force to enterprise growth .The business model is the bridge and tie to connect the emerging capital and enterprise grow th .According to different core strategy capital ,the busi‐ness model can be divided into three types such as technology dominance ,information dominance and know ledge domi‐nance .Based on different grow th stage of enterprise ,the paper analyzes business model choices and emerging capital allo‐cation problems .%在新经济环境下,技术、信息与知识已开始取代传统人、财、物要素,成为企业成长的根本动力。商业模式是连接新兴资本与企业成长的桥梁和纽带。按照所选择的核心战略资本,商业模式可分为技术主导、信息主导与知识主导3种类型。基于企业不同成长阶段,分析了商业模式选择与新兴资本的配置问题。

  19. Uso conjunto de dois modelos cognitivos para a compreensão do processo de escolha do consumidor Joint use of two cognitive models in order to understand consumer choice process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sérgio Carvalho Benício de Mello

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available O presente estudo tem por objetivo gerar um melhor entendimento do comportamento do consumidor, baseando-se em dois modelos cognitivos: risco percebido e conjunto de consideração. Neste sentido, teve foco no processo de avaliação e na escolha de alternativas dos consumidores, considerando diferentes percepções de risco em dois contextos de serviços. Uma amostra de 772 respondentes foi consultada através de um questionário estruturado. Os resultados indicam que a quantidade de marcas a serem consideradas como alternativa de consumo está associada apenas a algumas das dimensões do risco percebido. Também foram identificados quais atributos são considerados mais importantes na prestação dos serviços analisados e as estratégias redutoras de risco mais utilizadas pelos consumidores com diferentes níveis de percepção de risco. Conclusões e implicações gerenciais também são discutidas.This study aims to generate a better understanding about consumer behavior based on two cognitive models: risk perception and consideration set. In this sense, it has focus on consumer evaluation and choice processes, considering different risk perception levels in two service settings. A survey with a sample of 772 respondents was performed through a structured questionnaire. Results indicate that the number of brands considered for choice is associated with some risk perception dimensions. It was also identified which attributes are considered the most important in service delivery as well as the most used risk reducing strategies by consumers with varying patterns of risk perception. Conclusions and managerial implications are also discussed.

  20. A Multi-objective Programming Model of Route Choice of Emergency Vehicles before Travel%应急车辆出行前救援路径选择的多目标规划模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘杨; 云美萍; 彭国雄

    2009-01-01

    针对城市中应急车辆的救援路径优化问题,分析了基于交通信息中心的应急车辆最优路径的多目标属性,给出了随机网络中各属性的量化计算方法,以最小化出行时间,最大化行程时间可靠度为目标,考虑了通行可靠性、安全性、道路条件限制等因素,建立了应急车辆出行前最优路径选择的多目标规划模型.模型所求得的解是综合最优路径,反映了应急车辆路径选择的目标需求,克服了以往直接等同于图论中最短路径的缺陷,给出了算法,通过算例验证了模型的合理性和有效性.%To the route optimization of emergency vehicles in cities, a multi-objective programming model of optimal route choice with minimum travel time and maximum reliability was established. With consideration of the factors such as the capacity reliability, safety and road condition, the model displays the quantitative numeration of attributes in random network based on the analysis of the multi-objective attribute of the optimization of route choice problem of emergency vehicles in urban traffic information center.The model results in a comprehensive optimal route which can reflect the diversity feature of information demand for emergency vehicles. The disadvantage which the optimal path was always simplified to the shortest path problem was overcome.The solution algorithm was proposed. The rationality and validity of the model is demonstrated by one example.

  1. 企业商务代谢行为的时机选择模型%Modeling the Timing Choice of Firm's Business Metabolism

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    潘安成

    2012-01-01

    企业是一个多商务单元构成的动态系统,企业战略化行为依赖于其新旧商务代谢,并借此保持旺盛的生命力.企业商务代谢行为过程充满着诸多的不确定性,新商务引入行为和旧商务退出过程是相互依赖的,新商务进入时机影响着旧商务退出行为,同样,旧商务退出时机选择从新商务进入与运营绩效紧密相关.为此,运用实物期权方法,构建了企业新旧商务代谢的时机选择模型,选取影响企业转型的组织与环境等因素,提出了新旧商务代谢行为影响机制.%A firm is a dynamic system with multi-business-units, and its strategic behavior depends on the metaboly of its business models, as may sustain its vigorous vitality. During the trade-off of dynamic capabilities shifting from old business model to the new one, the entry of a new business must accompany with the exit of the old one, and there is a consistent relationship between the two. Thus it is critical for the metabolism of firm's business models to choose the entry timing of a new business and the exit timing of the existing one. This paper proposes that the strategic timing of the trade-offs is determined by such variables as organizational and environmental elements. Using real options approach, the strategic timing of the business metabolism is identified.

  2. Simulating future value in intertemporal choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solway, Alec; Lohrenz, Terry; Montague, P. Read

    2017-01-01

    The laboratory study of how humans and other animals trade-off value and time has a long and storied history, and is the subject of a vast literature. However, despite a long history of study, there is no agreed upon mechanistic explanation of how intertemporal choice preferences arise. Several theorists have recently proposed model-based reinforcement learning as a candidate framework. This framework describes a suite of algorithms by which a model of the environment, in the form of a state transition function and reward function, can be converted on-line into a decision. The state transition function allows the model-based system to make decisions based on projected future states, while the reward function assigns value to each state, together capturing the necessary components for successful intertemporal choice. Empirical work has also pointed to a possible relationship between increased prospection and reduced discounting. In the current paper, we look for direct evidence of a relationship between temporal discounting and model-based control in a large new data set (n = 168). However, testing the relationship under several different modeling formulations revealed no indication that the two quantities are related. PMID:28225034

  3. Social choice for one: On the rationality of intertemporal decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paglieri, Fabio

    2016-06-01

    When faced with an intertemporal choice between a smaller short-term reward and a larger long-term prize, is opting for the latter always indicative of delay tolerance? And is delay tolerance always to be regarded as a manifestation of self-control, and thus as a rational solution to intertemporal dilemmas? I argue in favor of a negative answer to both questions, based on evidence collected in the delay discounting literature. This highlights the need for a nuanced understanding of rationality in intertemporal choice, to capture also situations in which waiting is not the optimal strategy. This paper suggests that such an understanding is fostered by adopting social choice theory as a promising framework to model intertemporal decision making. Some preliminary results of this approach are discussed, and its potential is compared with a much more studied formal model for intertemporal choice, i.e. game theory.

  4. Making healthy choices easy choices: the role of empowerment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koelen, M.A.; Lindström, B.

    2005-01-01

    An important goal of health promotion is to make it easier for people to make healthy choices. However, this may be difficult if people do not feel control over their environment and their personal circumstances. An important concept in relation to this is empowerment. Health professionals are expec

  5. Choice probabilities and response times of binary preferential choices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joosen, Maarten Willem

    2001-01-01

    This PhD thesis investigates human choice behavior. We describe several experiments in which we offer the subject a referential stimulus and later two other stimuli that differ in several aspects from each other and the reference. The subject has to decide which of two alternatives resembles the ref

  6. Consumer Choice of Modularized Products : A Conjoint Choice Experiment Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dellaert, B.G.C.; Borgers, A.W.J.; Louviere, J.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    1998-01-01

    Recent increases in flexibility and automation in the production of goods and services allow a growing number of suppliers to offer their products in flexible sets of modules from which consumers can create their own individualized packages. This paper addresses the question how consumer choices of

  7. The Determinants of Food Choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leng, Gareth; Adan, Roger A. H.; Belot, Michele

    2016-01-01

    , we need to be able to make valid predictions about the consequences of proposed interventions, and for this, we need a better understanding of the determinants of food choice. These determinants include dietary components (e.g. highly palatable foods and alcohol), but also diverse cultural and social...... pressures, cognitive-affective factors (perceived stress, health attitude, anxiety and depression), and familial, genetic and epigenetic influences on personality characteristics. In addition, our choices are influenced by an array of physiological mechanisms, including signals to the brain from...

  8. Flooring choices for newborn ICUs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, R D

    2007-12-01

    Floors are a major element of newborn intensive care unit (NICU) construction. They provide visual cues, sound control, and with certain materials, some degree of physical comfort for workers. Flooring materials may entail a significant cost for installation and upkeep and can have substantial ecological impact, both in the choice of the flooring itself, as well as the substances used to clean it. In this article the important aspects to consider for each factor are explored and recommendations are offered for appropriate choices in various NICU areas.

  9. Arbitration between controlled and impulsive choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Economides, M; Guitart-Masip, M; Kurth-Nelson, Z; Dolan, R J

    2015-04-01

    The impulse to act for immediate reward often conflicts with more deliberate evaluations that support long-term benefit. The neural architecture that negotiates this conflict remains unclear. One account proposes a single neural circuit that evaluates both immediate and delayed outcomes, while another outlines separate impulsive and patient systems that compete for behavioral control. Here we designed a task in which a complex payout structure divorces the immediate value of acting from the overall long-term value, within the same outcome modality. Using model-based fMRI in humans, we demonstrate separate neural representations of immediate and long-term values, with the former tracked in the anterior caudate (AC) and the latter in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC). Crucially, when subjects' choices were compatible with long-run consequences, value signals in AC were down-weighted and those in vmPFC were enhanced, while the opposite occurred when choice was impulsive. Thus, our data implicate a trade-off in value representation between AC and vmPFC as underlying controlled versus impulsive choice.

  10. Deterministic or stochastic choices in retinal neuron specification

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Zhenqing; LI Xin; DESPLAN, CLAUDE

    2012-01-01

    There are two views on vertebrate retinogenesis: a deterministic model dependent on fixed lineages, and a stochastic model in which choices of division modes and cell fates cannot be predicted. In this issue of Neuron, He et al. (2012) address this question in zebra fish using live imaging and mathematical modeling.

  11. La nocturna study of educational choice in Colombia

    OpenAIRE

    Dueñas Herrera, Ximena

    2007-01-01

    This study uses data from Colombia’s 2003 Encuesta de Calidad de Vida to examine how well do electricity strata (proxy for socioeconomic status) explain the choice decision for type of institution and session attended. In the model of choice by type - private vs. public universities – I find that as the electricity strata increases, the marginal probability of enrolling in a public university decreases up to stratum five after which the decreasing trend reverts. In the case of session attenda...

  12. Distribution Channel Choices of Wineries in Emerging Cool Climate Regions

    OpenAIRE

    Sun, Lin; Gómez, Miguel I.; Chaddad, Fabio R.; Ross, R. Brent

    2014-01-01

    The number of wineries in nontraditional cool climate regions of the United States has increased dramatically in the last decade. We examine factors influencing distribution channel choices by these wineries, including winery characteristics, marketing strategies, and the extent of vertical and horizontal integration. Using a survey of winery operators in Michigan, Missouri, and New York, we developed fractional logit models to test hypotheses regarding their distribution channel choices. We ...

  13. The impact of mobile payment on payment choice

    OpenAIRE

    Trütsch, Tobias

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of mobile payment on the adoption and use of traditional payment instruments such as cash, checks, and credit, debit and prepaid cards at the point of sale (POS). Data are from a 2012 representative survey on consumer payment choice in the United States. Using discrete-choice random utility models to simulate consumer behavior, the estimation provides two major findings. First, mobile payment does not replace physical payment cards, but is likely to substitu...

  14. NASH EQUILIBRIA WITHOUT CONTINUITY OF THE CHOICE RULES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    José C.R.Alcantud

    2011-01-01

    The proposal in Alcantud and Alós-Ferrer[1],where players that express their tastes according to choice rules facing a competitive situation,is further exploited here.We prove that,under lack of continuity of the choice rules it is also possible to ensure the existence of equilibrium.We shall appeal to general situations that are fulfilled by well-established models,where players have non-transitive preferences of various types.

  15. 卫星城居民出行特征及出行方式选择模型研究%Residents′Travel Characteristics and Model of Travel Mode Choice for Satellite City

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谢秋婷; 温旭丽

    2015-01-01

    Study on residents′travel characteristics and travel mode choice behaviors is the basis and premise to solve traffic problems of satellite city. Taking Pukou district of Nanjing as an example, the res⁃idents′travel OD survey data was processed and excavated by Access. The residents′travel characteris⁃tics status was summarized from aspects of travel frequency, travel purpose, travel mode, travel time and its distribution. The major factors influencing the travel mode choice of satellite city residents were exca⁃vated and quantified. By data mining, the multinomial travel choice Logit model was established. It was fitted and calibrated through SPSS. Taking the public transport as an example, the major factors influenc⁃ing the choice of bus travel which were gender, age and whether having bus IC card were conducted. The fitting accuracy was tested using the calculation and predicted value. The result shows that the errors of predicted values are acceptable except for non-motorized vehicle.%卫星城居民出行特征及出行方式选择研究是解决卫星城交通问题的基础和前提。以南宁市浦口区为例,通过Access数据库对居民出行OD调查数据进行处理挖掘,从居民的出行频次、出行目的、出行方式、出行时耗及出行时间分布五方面对卫星城居民出行特征进行研究,总结出浦口区居民出行特征现状;挖掘并量化影响卫星城居民出行方式选择的关键因素,利用浦口区居民出行调查数据,构建居民出行方式选择多项Logit模型,通过SPSS软件进行模型拟合和标定。在模型拟合结果中,以公交车为例进行拟合结果分析,可得到影响选择公交出行的主要因素——性别、年龄以及有无公交IC卡,并通过计算以及模型预测值对模型拟合精度进行校验。结果显示,除非机动车预测效果较差以外,其余预测误差均在可接受范围内。

  16. Starting point anchoring effects in choice experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ladenburg, Jacob; Olsen, Søren Bøye

    of preferences in Choice Experiments resembles the Dichotomous Choice format, there is reason to suspect that Choice Experiments are equally vulnerable to anchoring bias. Employing different sets of price levels in a so-called Instruction Choice Set presented prior to the actual choice sets, the present study......Anchoring is acknowledged as a potential source of considerable bias in Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation studies. Recently, another stated preference method known as Choice Experiments has gained in popularity as well as the number of applied studies. However, as the elicitation...... finds that preferences elicited by Choice Experiments can be subject to starting point anchoring bias. Different price levels provoked significantly different distributions of choice in two otherwise identical choice set designs. On a more specific level, the results indicate that the anchoring...

  17. Starting point anchoring effects in choice experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ladenburg, Jacob; Olsen, Søren Bøye

    Anchoring is acknowledged as a potential source of considerable bias in Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation studies. Recently, another stated preference method known as Choice Experiments has gained in popularity as well as the number of applied studies. However, as the elicitation...... of preferences in Choice Experiments resembles the Dichotomous Choice format, there is reason to suspect that Choice Experiments are equally vulnerable to anchoring bias. Employing different sets of price levels in a so-called Instruction Choice Set presented prior to the actual choice sets, the present study...... finds that preferences elicited by Choice Experiments can be subject to starting point anchoring bias. Different price levels provoked significantly different distributions of choice in two otherwise identical choice set designs. On a more specific level, the results indicate that the anchoring...

  18. Mate Choice Drives Evolutionary Stability in a Hybrid Complex.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Morgado-Santos

    Full Text Available Previous studies have shown that assortative mating acts as a driver of speciation by countering hybridization between two populations of the same species (pre-zygotic isolation or through mate choice among the hybrids (hybrid speciation. In both speciation types, assortative mating promotes speciation over a transient hybridization stage. We studied mate choice in a hybrid vertebrate complex, the allopolyploid fish Squalius alburnoides. This complex is composed by several genomotypes connected by an intricate reproductive dynamics. We developed a model that predicts the hybrid complex can persist when females exhibit particular mate choice patterns. Our model is able to reproduce the diversity of population dynamic outcomes found in nature, namely the dominance of the triploids and the dominance of the tetraploids, depending on female mate choice patterns and frequency of the parental species. Experimental mate choice trials showed that females exhibit the preferences predicted by the model. Thus, despite the known role of assortative mating in driving speciation, our findings suggest that certain mate choice patterns can instead hinder speciation and support the persistence of hybrids over time without speciation or extinction.

  19. Mate Choice Drives Evolutionary Stability in a Hybrid Complex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgado-Santos, Miguel; Pereira, Henrique Miguel

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies have shown that assortative mating acts as a driver of speciation by countering hybridization between two populations of the same species (pre-zygotic isolation) or through mate choice among the hybrids (hybrid speciation). In both speciation types, assortative mating promotes speciation over a transient hybridization stage. We studied mate choice in a hybrid vertebrate complex, the allopolyploid fish Squalius alburnoides. This complex is composed by several genomotypes connected by an intricate reproductive dynamics. We developed a model that predicts the hybrid complex can persist when females exhibit particular mate choice patterns. Our model is able to reproduce the diversity of population dynamic outcomes found in nature, namely the dominance of the triploids and the dominance of the tetraploids, depending on female mate choice patterns and frequency of the parental species. Experimental mate choice trials showed that females exhibit the preferences predicted by the model. Thus, despite the known role of assortative mating in driving speciation, our findings suggest that certain mate choice patterns can instead hinder speciation and support the persistence of hybrids over time without speciation or extinction. PMID:26181664

  20. Home education: Constructions of choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth MORTON

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Families who choose to home educate generally do so due to dissatisfaction with schoolbased education. Common perceptions of home educators oscillate between images of the 'tree-hugging hippy' and the 'religious fanatic'. Whilst attempting to go beyond suchstereotypical dichotomies, this paper will examine three very different groupings of home educators and their varying constructions of childhood and the social world, demonstratingthe spectrum between home education as an expression of human rights and of fundamentalism. The first grouping construct home education as a 'natural' choice, often presented in political opposition to existing social structures. For the second grouping home education is predominantly a 'social' choice relating to the conscious transmission of various forms of capital. Finally there are 'last resort' home educators for whom home education is not perceived as a choice. Based on qualitative research, this paper will argue that, even where home education is constructed as natural, the social aspects and impacts of home education choices cannot be ignored.