Comparison of Vehicle Choice Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stephens, Thomas S. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Levinson, Rebecca S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooker, Aaron [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Liu, Changzheng [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Lin, Zhenhong [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Birky, Alicia [Energetics Incorporated, Columbia, MD (United States); Kontou, Eleftheria [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-10-01

Five consumer vehicle choice models that give projections of future sales shares of light-duty vehicles were compared by running each model using the same inputs, where possible, for two scenarios. The five models compared — LVCFlex, MA3T, LAVE-Trans, ParaChoice, and ADOPT — have been used in support of the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Vehicle Technologies Office in analyses of future light-duty vehicle markets under different assumptions about future vehicle technologies and market conditions. The models give projections of sales shares by powertrain technology. Projections made using common, but not identical, inputs showed qualitative agreement, with the exception of ADOPT. ADOPT estimated somewhat lower advanced vehicle shares, mostly composed of hybrid electric vehicles. Other models projected large shares of multiple advanced vehicle powertrains. Projections of models differed in significant ways, including how different technologies penetrated cars and light trucks. Since the models are constructed differently and take different inputs, not all inputs were identical, but were the same or very similar where possible.

Modelling Choice of Information Sources

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Agha Faisal Habib Pathan

2013-04-01

Full Text Available This paper addresses the significance of traveller information sources including mono-modal and multimodal websites for travel decisions. The research follows a decision paradigm developed earlier, involving an information acquisition process for travel choices, and identifies the abstract characteristics of new information sources that deserve further investigation (e.g. by incorporating these in models and studying their significance in model estimation. A Stated Preference experiment is developed and the utility functions are formulated by expanding the travellers' choice set to include different combinations of sources of information. In order to study the underlying choice mechanisms, the resulting variables are examined in models based on different behavioural strategies, including utility maximisation and minimising the regret associated with the foregone alternatives. This research confirmed that RRM (Random Regret Minimisation Theory can fruitfully be used and can provide important insights for behavioural studies. The study also analyses the properties of travel planning websites and establishes a link between travel choices and the content, provenance, design, presence of advertisements, and presentation of information. The results indicate that travellers give particular credence to governmentowned sources and put more importance on their own previous experiences than on any other single source of information. Information from multimodal websites is more influential than that on train-only websites. This in turn is more influential than information from friends, while information from coachonly websites is the least influential. A website with less search time, specific information on users' own criteria, and real time information is regarded as most attractive

Modeling Stochastic Route Choice Behaviors with Equivalent Impedance

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Jun Li

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A Logit-based route choice model is proposed to address the overlapping and scaling problems in the traditional multinomial Logit model. The nonoverlapping links are defined as a subnetwork, and its equivalent impedance is explicitly calculated in order to simply network analyzing. The overlapping links are repeatedly merged into subnetworks with Logit-based equivalent travel costs. The choice set at each intersection comprises only the virtual equivalent route without overlapping. In order to capture heterogeneity in perception errors of different sizes of networks, different scale parameters are assigned to subnetworks and they are linked to the topological relationships to avoid estimation burden. The proposed model provides an alternative method to model the stochastic route choice behaviors without the overlapping and scaling problems, and it still maintains the simple and closed-form expression from the MNL model. A link-based loading algorithm based on Dial’s algorithm is proposed to obviate route enumeration and it is suitable to be applied on large-scale networks. Finally a comparison between the proposed model and other route choice models is given by numerical examples.

A random regret minimization model of travel choice

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chorus, C.G.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2008-01-01

Abstract This paper presents an alternative to Random Utility-Maximization models of travel choice. Our Random Regret-Minimization model is rooted in Regret Theory and provides several useful features for travel demand analysis. Firstly, it allows for the possibility that choices between travel

Comparison of Vehicle Choice Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stephens, Thomas S. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Levinson, Rebecca S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooker, Aaron [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Liu, Changzheng [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Lin, Zhenhong [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Birky, Alicia [Energetics Incorporated, Columbia, MD (United States); Kontou, Eleftheria [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-10-31

Five consumer vehicle choice models that give projections of future sales shares of light-duty vehicles were compared by running each model using the same inputs, where possible, for two scenarios. The five models compared — LVCFlex, MA3T, LAVE-Trans, ParaChoice, and ADOPT — have been used in support of the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Vehicle Technologies Office in analyses of future light-duty vehicle markets under different assumptions about future vehicle technologies and market conditions. The models give projections of sales shares by powertrain technology. Projections made using common, but not identical, inputs showed qualitative agreement, with the exception of ADOPT. ADOPT estimated somewhat lower advanced vehicle shares, mostly composed of hybrid electric vehicles. Other models projected large shares of multiple advanced vehicle powertrains. Projections of models differed in significant ways, including how different technologies penetrated cars and light trucks. Since the models are constructed differently and take different inputs, not all inputs were identical, but were the same or very similar where possible. Projections by all models were in close agreement only in the first few years. Although the projections from LVCFlex, MA3T, LAVE-Trans, and ParaChoice were in qualitative agreement, there were significant differences in sales shares given by the different models for individual powertrain types, particularly in later years (2030 and later). For example, projected sales shares of conventional spark-ignition vehicles in 2030 for a given scenario ranged from 35% to 74%. Reasons for such differences are discussed, recognizing that these models were not developed to give quantitatively accurate predictions of future sales shares, but to represent vehicles markets realistically and capture the connections between sales and important influences. Model features were also compared at a high level, and suggestions for further comparison

ParaChoice Model.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heimer, Brandon Walter [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Levinson, Rebecca Sobel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); West, Todd H. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)

2017-12-01

Analysis with the ParaChoice model addresses three barriers from the VTO Multi-Year Program Plan: availability of alternative fuels and electric charging station infrastructure, availability of AFVs and electric drive vehicles, and consumer reluctance to purchase new technologies. In this fiscal year, we first examined the relationship between the availability of alternative fuels and station infrastructure. Specifically, we studied how electric vehicle charging infrastructure affects the ability of EVs to compete with vehicles that rely on mature, conventional petroleum-based fuels. Second, we studied how the availability of less costly AFVs promotes their representation in the LDV fleet. Third, we used ParaChoice trade space analyses to help inform which consumers are reluctant to purchase new technologies. Last, we began analysis of impacts of alternative energy technologies on Class 8 trucks to isolate those that may most efficaciously advance HDV efficiency and petroleum use reduction goals.

Complexity effects in choice experiments-based models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dellaert, B.G.C.; Donkers, B.; van Soest, A.H.O.

2012-01-01

Many firms rely on choice experiment–based models to evaluate future marketing actions under various market conditions. This research investigates choice complexity (i.e., number of alternatives, number of attributes, and utility similarity between the most attractive alternatives) and individual

Route Choice Model Based on Game Theory for Commuters

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Licai Yang

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The traffic behaviours of commuters may cause traffic congestion during peak hours. Advanced Traffic Information System can provide dynamic information to travellers. Due to the lack of timeliness and comprehensiveness, the provided information cannot satisfy the travellers’ needs. Since the assumptions of traditional route choice model based on Expected Utility Theory conflict with the actual situation, a route choice model based on Game Theory is proposed to provide reliable route choice to commuters in actual situation in this paper. The proposed model treats the alternative routes as game players and utilizes the precision of predicted information and familiarity of traffic condition to build a game. The optimal route can be generated considering Nash Equilibrium by solving the route choice game. Simulations and experimental analysis show that the proposed model can describe the commuters’ routine route choice decisionexactly and the provided route is reliable.

A nested recursive logit model for route choice analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mai, Tien; Frejinger, Emma; Fosgerau, Mogens

2015-01-01

choices and the model does not require any sampling of choice sets. Furthermore, the model can be consistently estimated and efficiently used for prediction.A key challenge lies in the computation of the value functions, i.e. the expected maximum utility from any position in the network to a destination....... The value functions are the solution to a system of non-linear equations. We propose an iterative method with dynamic accuracy that allows to efficiently solve these systems.We report estimation results and a cross-validation study for a real network. The results show that the NRL model yields sensible......We propose a route choice model that relaxes the independence from irrelevant alternatives property of the logit model by allowing scale parameters to be link specific. Similar to the recursive logit (RL) model proposed by Fosgerau et al. (2013), the choice of path is modeled as a sequence of link...

Joint Residence-Workplace Location Choice Model Based on Household Decision Behavior

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Pengpeng Jiao

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Residence location and workplace are the two most important urban land-use types, and there exist strong interdependences between them. Existing researches often assume that one choice dimension is correlated to the other. Using the mixed logit framework, three groups of choice models are developed to illustrate such choice dependencies. First, for all households, this paper presents a basic methodology of the residence location and workplace choice without decision sequence based on the assumption that the two choice behaviors are independent of each other. Second, the paper clusters all households into two groups, choosing residence or workplace first, and formulates the residence location and workplace choice models under the constraint of decision sequence. Third, this paper combines the residence location and workplace together as the choice alternative and puts forward the joint choice model. A questionnaire survey is implemented in Beijing city to collect the data of 1994 households. Estimation results indicate that the joint choice model fits the data significantly better, and the elasticity effects analyses show that the joint choice model reflects the influences of relevant factors to the choice probability well and leads to the job-housing balance.

Consumer choice of theme parks : a conjoint choice model of seasonality effects and variety seeking behavior

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Borgers, A.W.J.; Oppewal, H.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2000-01-01

Most existing mathematical models of tourist choice behavior assume that individuals' preferences for choice alternatives remain invariant over time. Although the assumption of invariant preference functions may be reasonable in some choice contexts, this study examines the hypothesis that

Modelling life trajectories and mode choice using Bayesian belief networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verhoeven, M.

2010-01-01

Traditionally, transport mode choice was primarily examined as a stand alone problem. Given a purpose and destination, the choice of transport mode was modelled as a function of the various attributes of the transport mode alternatives. Later, transport mode choice decisions were modelled as part of

Exploring the Influence of Attitudes to Walking and Cycling on Commute Mode Choice Using a Hybrid Choice Model

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Chuan Ding

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Transport-related problems, such as automobile dependence, traffic congestion, and greenhouse emissions, lead to a great burden on the environment. In developing countries like China, in order to improve the air quality, promoting sustainable travel modes to reduce the automobile usage is gradually recognized as an emerging national concern. Though there are many studies related to the physically active modes (e.g., walking and cycling, the research on the influence of attitudes to active modes on travel behavior is limited, especially in China. To fill up this gap, this paper focuses on examining the impact of attitudes to walking and cycling on commute mode choice. Using the survey data collected in China cities, an integrated discrete choice model and the structural equation model are proposed. By applying the hybrid choice model, not only the role of the latent attitude played in travel mode choice, but also the indirect effects of social factors on travel mode choice are obtained. The comparison indicates that the hybrid choice model outperforms the traditional model. This study is expected to provide a better understanding for urban planners on the influential factors of green travel modes.

Generalized outcome-based strategy classification: comparing deterministic and probabilistic choice models.

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Hilbig, Benjamin E; Moshagen, Morten

2014-12-01

Model comparisons are a vital tool for disentangling which of several strategies a decision maker may have used--that is, which cognitive processes may have governed observable choice behavior. However, previous methodological approaches have been limited to models (i.e., decision strategies) with deterministic choice rules. As such, psychologically plausible choice models--such as evidence-accumulation and connectionist models--that entail probabilistic choice predictions could not be considered appropriately. To overcome this limitation, we propose a generalization of Bröder and Schiffer's (Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 19, 361-380, 2003) choice-based classification method, relying on (1) parametric order constraints in the multinomial processing tree framework to implement probabilistic models and (2) minimum description length for model comparison. The advantages of the generalized approach are demonstrated through recovery simulations and an experiment. In explaining previous methods and our generalization, we maintain a nontechnical focus--so as to provide a practical guide for comparing both deterministic and probabilistic choice models.

Think twice before you book? Modelling the choice of public vs private dentist in a choice experiment.

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Kiiskinen, Urpo; Suominen-Taipale, Anna Liisa; Cairns, John

2010-06-01

This study concerns the choice of primary dental service provider by consumers. If the health service delivery system allows individuals to choose between public-care providers or if complementary private services are available, it is typically assumed that utilisation is a three-stage decision process. The patient first makes a decision to seek care, and then chooses the service provider. The final stage, involving decisions over the amount and form of treatment, is not considered here. The paper reports a discrete choice experiment (DCE) designed to evaluate attributes affecting individuals' choice of dental-care provider. The feasibility of the DCE approach in modelling consumers' choice in the context of non-acute need for dental care is assessed. The aim is to test whether a separate two-stage logit, a multinomial logit, or a nested logit best fits the choice process of consumers. A nested logit model of indirect utility functions is estimated and inclusive value (IV) constraints are tested for modelling implications. The results show that non-trading behaviour has an impact on the choice of appropriate modelling technique, but is to some extent dependent on the choice of scenarios offered. It is concluded that for traders multinomial logit is appropriate, whereas for non-traders and on average the nested logit is the method supported by the analyses. The consistent finding in all subgroup analyses is that the traditional two-stage decision process is found to be implausible in the context of consumer's choice of dental-care provider.

Misclassification in binary choice models

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Meyer, B. D.; Mittag, Nikolas

2017-01-01

Roč. 200, č. 2 (2017), s. 295-311 ISSN 0304-4076 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : measurement error * binary choice models * program take-up Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Economic Theory Impact factor: 1.633, year: 2016

Street Choice Logit Model for Visitors in Shopping Districts

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Kawada, Ko; Yamada, Takashi; Kishimoto, Tatsuya

2014-01-01

In this study, we propose two models for predicting people’s activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction) model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation). The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that “have more shops, and are wider and lower”. In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive) and CARS (negative). Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive). PMID:25379274

Street Choice Logit Model for Visitors in Shopping Districts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ko Kawada

2014-07-01

Full Text Available In this study, we propose two models for predicting people’s activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation. The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that “have more shops, and are wider and lower”. In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive and CARS (negative. Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive.

Harvest choice and timber supply models for forest forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Maksym Polyakov; David N Wear

2010-01-01

Timber supply has traditionally been modeled using aggregate data, whereas individual harvest choices have been shown to be sensitive to the vintage and condition of forest capital stocks. In this article, we build aggregate supply models for four roundwood products in a seven-state region of the US South directly from stand-level harvest choice models applied to...

Exclusive queueing model including the choice of service windows

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Tanaka, Masahiro; Yanagisawa, Daichi; Nishinari, Katsuhiro

2018-01-01

In a queueing system involving multiple service windows, choice behavior is a significant concern. This paper incorporates the choice of service windows into a queueing model with a floor represented by discrete cells. We contrived a logit-based choice algorithm for agents considering the numbers of agents and the distances to all service windows. Simulations were conducted with various parameters of agent choice preference for these two elements and for different floor configurations, including the floor length and the number of service windows. We investigated the model from the viewpoint of transit times and entrance block rates. The influences of the parameters on these factors were surveyed in detail and we determined that there are optimum floor lengths that minimize the transit times. In addition, we observed that the transit times were determined almost entirely by the entrance block rates. The results of the presented model are relevant to understanding queueing systems including the choice of service windows and can be employed to optimize facility design and floor management.

Discrete choice modeling of season choice for Minnesota turkey hunters

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Schroeder, Susan A.; Fulton, David C.; Cornicelli, Louis; Merchant, Steven S.

2018-01-01

Recreational turkey hunting exemplifies the interdisciplinary nature of modern wildlife management. Turkey populations in Minnesota have reached social or biological carrying capacities in many areas, and changes to turkey hunting regulations have been proposed by stakeholders and wildlife managers. This study employed discrete stated choice modeling to enhance understanding of turkey hunter preferences about regulatory alternatives. We distributed mail surveys to 2,500 resident turkey hunters. Results suggest that, compared to season structure and lotteries, additional permits and level of potential interference from other hunters most influenced hunter preferences for regulatory alternatives. Low hunter interference was preferred to moderate or high interference. A second permit issued only to unsuccessful hunters was preferred to no second permit or permits for all hunters. Results suggest that utility is not strictly defined by harvest or an individual's material gain but can involve preference for other outcomes that on the surface do not materially benefit an individual. Discrete stated choice modeling offers wildlife managers an effective way to assess constituent preferences related to new regulations before implementing them. 

Discrete Choice Experiments: A Guide to Model Specification, Estimation and Software.

Science.gov (United States)

Lancsar, Emily; Fiebig, Denzil G; Hole, Arne Risa

2017-07-01

We provide a user guide on the analysis of data (including best-worst and best-best data) generated from discrete-choice experiments (DCEs), comprising a theoretical review of the main choice models followed by practical advice on estimation and post-estimation. We also provide a review of standard software. In providing this guide, we endeavour to not only provide guidance on choice modelling but to do so in a way that provides a 'way in' for researchers to the practicalities of data analysis. We argue that choice of modelling approach depends on the research questions, study design and constraints in terms of quality/quantity of data and that decisions made in relation to analysis of choice data are often interdependent rather than sequential. Given the core theory and estimation of choice models is common across settings, we expect the theoretical and practical content of this paper to be useful to researchers not only within but also beyond health economics.

Closing the gap between behavior and models in route choice: The role of spatiotemporal constraints and latent traits in choice set formation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

2012-01-01

not account for individual-related spatiotemporal constraints. This paper reduces the gap by proposing a route choice model incorporating spatiotemporal constraints and latent traits. The proposed approach combines stochastic route generation with a latent variable semi-compensatory model representing......A considerable gap exists between the behavioral paradigm of choice set formation in route choice and its representation in route choice modeling. While travelers form their viable choice set by retaining routes that satisfy spatiotemporal constraints, existing route generation techniques do...

Misclassification in binary choice models

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Meyer, B. D.; Mittag, Nikolas

2017-01-01

Roč. 200, č. 2 (2017), s. 295-311 ISSN 0304-4076 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GJ16-07603Y Institutional support: Progres-Q24 Keywords : measurement error * binary choice models * program take-up Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Economic Theory Impact factor: 1.633, year: 2016

Modeling Dynamic Food Choice Processes to Understand Dietary Intervention Effects.

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Marcum, Christopher Steven; Goldring, Megan R; McBride, Colleen M; Persky, Susan

2018-02-17

Meal construction is largely governed by nonconscious and habit-based processes that can be represented as a collection of in dividual, micro-level food choices that eventually give rise to a final plate. Despite this, dietary behavior intervention research rarely captures these micro-level food choice processes, instead measuring outcomes at aggregated levels. This is due in part to a dearth of analytic techniques to model these dynamic time-series events. The current article addresses this limitation by applying a generalization of the relational event framework to model micro-level food choice behavior following an educational intervention. Relational event modeling was used to model the food choices that 221 mothers made for their child following receipt of an information-based intervention. Participants were randomized to receive either (a) control information; (b) childhood obesity risk information; (c) childhood obesity risk information plus a personalized family history-based risk estimate for their child. Participants then made food choices for their child in a virtual reality-based food buffet simulation. Micro-level aspects of the built environment, such as the ordering of each food in the buffet, were influential. Other dynamic processes such as choice inertia also influenced food selection. Among participants receiving the strongest intervention condition, choice inertia decreased and the overall rate of food selection increased. Modeling food selection processes can elucidate the points at which interventions exert their influence. Researchers can leverage these findings to gain insight into nonconscious and uncontrollable aspects of food selection that influence dietary outcomes, which can ultimately improve the design of dietary interventions.

Choices and changes: Eccles' Expectancy-Value model and upper-secondary school students' longitudinal reflections about their choice of a STEM education

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Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

2016-03-01

During the past 30 years, Eccles' comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students in their last year in upper-secondary school concerning their choice of tertiary education were examined using quantitative EV-MBC surveys and repeated qualitative interviews. This article presents the analyses of three cases in detail. The analytical focus was whether the factors indicated in the EV-MBC model could be used to detect significant changes in the students' educational choice processes. An important finding was that the quantitative EV-MBC surveys and the qualitative interviews gave quite different results concerning the students' considerations about the choice of tertiary education, and that significant changes in the students' reflections were not captured by the factors of the EV-MBC model. This questions the validity of the EV-MBC surveys. Moreover, the quantitative factors from the EV-MBC model did not sufficiently explain students' dynamical educational choice processes where students in parallel considered several different potential educational trajectories. We therefore call for further studies of the EV-MBC model's use in describing longitudinal choice processes and especially in investigating significant changes.

Development of discrete choice model considering internal reference points and their effects in travel mode choice context

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Sarif; Kurauchi, Shinya; Yoshii, Toshio

2017-06-01

In the conventional travel behavior models such as logit and probit, decision makers are assumed to conduct the absolute evaluations on the attributes of the choice alternatives. On the other hand, many researchers in cognitive psychology and marketing science have been suggesting that the perceptions of attributes are characterized by the benchmark called “reference points” and the relative evaluations based on them are often employed in various choice situations. Therefore, this study developed a travel behavior model based on the mental accounting theory in which the internal reference points are explicitly considered. A questionnaire survey about the shopping trip to the CBD in Matsuyama city was conducted, and then the roles of reference points in travel mode choice contexts were investigated. The result showed that the goodness-of-fit of the developed model was higher than that of the conventional model, indicating that the internal reference points might play the major roles in the choice of travel mode. Also shown was that the respondents seem to utilize various reference points: some tend to adopt the lowest fuel price they have experienced, others employ fare price they feel in perceptions of the travel cost.

A Simulation-Based Dynamic Stochastic Route Choice Model for Evacuation

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Xing Zhao

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper establishes a dynamic stochastic route choice model for evacuation to simulate the propagation process of traffic flow and estimate the stochastic route choice under evacuation situations. The model contains a lane-group-based cell transmission model (CTM which sets different traffic capacities for links with different turning movements to flow out in an evacuation situation, an actual impedance model which is to obtain the impedance of each route in time units at each time interval and a stochastic route choice model according to the probit-based stochastic user equilibrium. In this model, vehicles loading at each origin at each time interval are assumed to choose an evacuation route under determinate road network, signal design, and OD demand. As a case study, the proposed model is validated on the network nearby Nanjing Olympic Center after the opening ceremony of the 10th National Games of the People's Republic of China. The traffic volumes and clearing time at five exit points of the evacuation zone are calculated by the model to compare with survey data. The results show that this model can appropriately simulate the dynamic route choice and evolution process of the traffic flow on the network in an evacuation situation.

Airport choice model in multiple airport regions

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Claudia Muñoz

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Purpose: This study aims to analyze travel choices made by air transportation users in multi airport regions because it is a crucial component when planning passenger redistribution policies. The purpose of this study is to find a utility function which makes it possible to know the variables that influence users’ choice of the airports on routes to the main cities in the Colombian territory. Design/methodology/approach: This research generates a Multinomial Logit Model (MNL, which is based on the theory of maximizing utility, and it is based on the data obtained on revealed and stated preference surveys applied to users who reside in the metropolitan area of Aburrá Valley (Colombia. This zone is the only one in the Colombian territory which has two neighboring airports for domestic flights. The airports included in the modeling process were Enrique Olaya Herrera (EOH Airport and José María Córdova (JMC Airport. Several structure models were tested, and the MNL proved to be the most significant revealing the common variables that affect passenger airport choice include the airfare, the price to travel the airport, and the time to get to the airport. Findings and Originality/value: The airport choice model which was calibrated corresponds to a valid powerful tool used to calculate the probability of each analyzed airport of being chosen for domestic flights in the Colombian territory. This is done bearing in mind specific characteristic of each of the attributes contained in the utility function. In addition, these probabilities will be used to calculate future market shares of the two airports considered in this study, and this will be done generating a support tool for airport and airline marketing policies.

Value-based choice: An integrative, neuroscience-informed model of health goals.

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Berkman, Elliot T

2018-01-01

Traditional models of health behaviour focus on the roles of cognitive, personality and social-cognitive constructs (e.g. executive function, grit, self-efficacy), and give less attention to the process by which these constructs interact in the moment that a health-relevant choice is made. Health psychology needs a process-focused account of how various factors are integrated to produce the decisions that determine health behaviour. I present an integrative value-based choice model of health behaviour, which characterises the mechanism by which a variety of factors come together to determine behaviour. This model imports knowledge from research on behavioural economics and neuroscience about how choices are made to the study of health behaviour, and uses that knowledge to generate novel predictions about how to change health behaviour. I describe anomalies in value-based choice that can be exploited for health promotion, and review neuroimaging evidence about the involvement of midline dopamine structures in tracking and integrating value-related information during choice. I highlight how this knowledge can bring insights to health psychology using illustrative case of healthy eating. Value-based choice is a viable model for health behaviour and opens new avenues for mechanism-focused intervention.

Behavioural Models for Route Choice of Passengers in Multimodal Public Transport Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Anderson, Marie Karen

in the estimation of route choice models of public transport users based upon observed choices. Public transport route choice models have not benefitted from the same technological enhancements as car models because of the necessity (i) to collect additional information concerning lines and transfers, and (ii...... modes, public transport modes, lines, transfers, egress modes) is large. This thesis proposes a doubly stochastic approach for generating alternative routes that are relevant to travellers, since the method allows accounting for both perceived costs of the network elements and heterogeneity......The subject of this thesis is behavioural models for route choice of passengers in multimodal public transport networks. While research in sustainable transport has dedicated much attention toward the determinants of choice between car and sustainable travel options, it has devoted less attention...

Discrete choice models with multiplicative error terms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosgerau, Mogens; Bierlaire, Michel

2009-01-01

The conditional indirect utility of many random utility maximization (RUM) discrete choice models is specified as a sum of an index V depending on observables and an independent random term ε. In general, the universe of RUM consistent models is much larger, even fixing some specification of V due...

Nonparametric Identification and Estimation of Finite Mixture Models of Dynamic Discrete Choices

OpenAIRE

Hiroyuki Kasahara; Katsumi Shimotsu

2006-01-01

In dynamic discrete choice analysis, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity is an important issue, and finite mixture models provide flexible ways to account for unobserved heterogeneity. This paper studies nonparametric identifiability of type probabilities and type-specific component distributions in finite mixture models of dynamic discrete choices. We derive sufficient conditions for nonparametric identification for various finite mixture models of dynamic discrete choices used in appli...

Utility-free heuristic models of two-option choice can mimic predictions of utility-stage models under many conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steven T Piantadosi

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Economists often model choices as if decision-makers assign each option a scalar value variable, known as utility, and then select the option with the highest utility. It remains unclear whether as-if utility models describe real mental and neural steps in choice. Although choices alone cannot prove the existence of a utility stage in choice, utility transformations are often taken to provide the most parsimonious or psychologically plausible explanation for choice data. Here, we show that it is possible to mathematically transform a large set of common utility-stage two-option choice models (specifically ones in which dimensions are linearly separable into a psychologically plausible heuristic model (specifically, a dimensional prioritization heuristic that has no utility computation stage. We then show that under a range of plausible assumptions, both classes of model predict similar neural responses. These results highlight the difficulties in using neuroeconomic data to infer the existence of a value stage in choice.

A simplified model of choice behavior under uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ching-Hung Lin

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT has been standardized as a clinical assessment tool (Bechara, 2007. Nonetheless, numerous research groups have attempted to modify IGT models to optimize parameters for predicting the choice behavior of normal controls and patients. A decade ago, most researchers considered the expected utility (EU model (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002 to be the optimal model for predicting choice behavior under uncertainty. However, in recent years, studies have demonstrated the prospect utility (PU models (Ahn et al., 2008 to be more effective than the EU models in the IGT. Nevertheless, after some preliminary tests, we propose that Ahn et al. (2008 PU model is not optimal due to some incompatible results between our behavioral and modeling data. This study aims to modify Ahn et al. (2008 PU model to a simplified model and collected 145 subjects’ IGT performance as the benchmark data for comparison. In our simplified PU model, the best goodness-of-fit was found mostly while α approaching zero. More specifically, we retested the key parameters α, λ , and A in the PU model. Notably, the power of influence of the parameters α, λ, and A has a hierarchical order in terms of manipulating the goodness-of-fit in the PU model. Additionally, we found that the parameters λ and A may be ineffective when the parameter α is close to zero in the PU model. The present simplified model demonstrated that decision makers mostly adopted the strategy of gain-stay-loss-shift rather than foreseeing the long-term outcome. However, there still have other behavioral variables that are not well revealed under these dynamic uncertainty situations. Therefore, the optimal behavioral models may not have been found. In short, the best model for predicting choice behavior under dynamic-uncertainty situations should be further evaluated.

Models of Affective Decision Making: How Do Feelings Predict Choice?

Science.gov (United States)

Charpentier, Caroline J; De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel; Li, Xinyi; Roiser, Jonathan P; Sharot, Tali

2016-06-01

Intuitively, how you feel about potential outcomes will determine your decisions. Indeed, an implicit assumption in one of the most influential theories in psychology, prospect theory, is that feelings govern choice. Surprisingly, however, very little is known about the rules by which feelings are transformed into decisions. Here, we specified a computational model that used feelings to predict choices. We found that this model predicted choice better than existing value-based models, showing a unique contribution of feelings to decisions, over and above value. Similar to the value function in prospect theory, our feeling function showed diminished sensitivity to outcomes as value increased. However, loss aversion in choice was explained by an asymmetry in how feelings about losses and gains were weighted when making a decision, not by an asymmetry in the feelings themselves. The results provide new insights into how feelings are utilized to reach a decision. © The Author(s) 2016.

Choices and Changes: Eccles’ Expectancy-Value Model and Upper-Secondary School Students’ Longitudinal Reflections about their Choice of a STEM Education

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

2016-01-01

During the past 30 years, Eccles’ comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students...... in their last year in upper-secondary school concerning their choice of tertiary education were examined using quantitative EV-MBC surveys and repeated qualitative interviews. This article presents the analyses of three cases in detail. The analytical focus was whether the factors indicated in the EV-MBC model......, and that significant changes in the students’ reflections were not captured by the factors of the EV-MBC model. This questions the validity of the EVMBC surveys. Moreover, the quantitative factors from the EV-MBC model did not sufficiently explain students’ dynamical educational choice processes where students...

Empirical analyses of a choice model that captures ordering among attribute values

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

2017-01-01

an alternative additionally because it has the highest price. In this paper, we specify a discrete choice model that takes into account the ordering of attribute values across alternatives. This model is used to investigate the effect of attribute value ordering in three case studies related to alternative-fuel...... vehicles, mode choice, and route choice. In our application to choices among alternative-fuel vehicles, we see that especially the price coefficient is sensitive to changes in ordering. The ordering effect is also found in the applications to mode and route choice data where both travel time and cost...

The drift diffusion model as the choice rule in reinforcement learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Pedersen, Mads Lund; Frank, Michael J; Biele, Guido

2017-08-01

Current reinforcement-learning models often assume simplified decision processes that do not fully reflect the dynamic complexities of choice processes. Conversely, sequential-sampling models of decision making account for both choice accuracy and response time, but assume that decisions are based on static decision values. To combine these two computational models of decision making and learning, we implemented reinforcement-learning models in which the drift diffusion model describes the choice process, thereby capturing both within- and across-trial dynamics. To exemplify the utility of this approach, we quantitatively fit data from a common reinforcement-learning paradigm using hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation, and compared model variants to determine whether they could capture the effects of stimulant medication in adult patients with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The model with the best relative fit provided a good description of the learning process, choices, and response times. A parameter recovery experiment showed that the hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach enabled accurate estimation of the model parameters. The model approach described here, using simultaneous estimation of reinforcement-learning and drift diffusion model parameters, shows promise for revealing new insights into the cognitive and neural mechanisms of learning and decision making, as well as the alteration of such processes in clinical groups.

Patient choice modelling: how do patients choose their hospitals?

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Honora; Currie, Christine; Chaiwuttisak, Pornpimol; Kyprianou, Andreas

2018-06-01

As an aid to predicting future hospital admissions, we compare use of the Multinomial Logit and the Utility Maximising Nested Logit models to describe how patients choose their hospitals. The models are fitted to real data from Derbyshire, United Kingdom, which lists the postcodes of more than 200,000 admissions to six different local hospitals. Both elective and emergency admissions are analysed for this mixed urban/rural area. For characteristics that may affect a patient's choice of hospital, we consider the distance of the patient from the hospital, the number of beds at the hospital and the number of car parking spaces available at the hospital, as well as several statistics publicly available on National Health Service (NHS) websites: an average waiting time, the patient survey score for ward cleanliness, the patient safety score and the inpatient survey score for overall care. The Multinomial Logit model is successfully fitted to the data. Results obtained with the Utility Maximising Nested Logit model show that nesting according to city or town may be invalid for these data; in other words, the choice of hospital does not appear to be preceded by choice of city. In all of the analysis carried out, distance appears to be one of the main influences on a patient's choice of hospital rather than statistics available on the Internet.

Incorporating Latent Variables into Discrete Choice Models - A Simultaneous Estimation Approach Using SEM Software

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Dirk Temme

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV models represent a promising new class of models which merge classic choice models with the structural equation approach (SEM for latent variables. Despite their conceptual appeal, applications of ICLV models in marketing remain rare. We extend previous ICLV applications by first estimating a multinomial choice model and, second, by estimating hierarchical relations between latent variables. An empirical study on travel mode choice clearly demonstrates the value of ICLV models to enhance the understanding of choice processes. In addition to the usually studied directly observable variables such as travel time, we show how abstract motivations such as power and hedonism as well as attitudes such as a desire for flexibility impact on travel mode choice. Furthermore, we show that it is possible to estimate such a complex ICLV model with the widely available structural equation modeling package Mplus. This finding is likely to encourage more widespread application of this appealing model class in the marketing field.

Random regret-based discrete-choice modelling: an application to healthcare.

Science.gov (United States)

de Bekker-Grob, Esther W; Chorus, Caspar G

2013-07-01

A new modelling approach for analysing data from discrete-choice experiments (DCEs) has been recently developed in transport economics based on the notion of regret minimization-driven choice behaviour. This so-called Random Regret Minimization (RRM) approach forms an alternative to the dominant Random Utility Maximization (RUM) approach. The RRM approach is able to model semi-compensatory choice behaviour and compromise effects, while being as parsimonious and formally tractable as the RUM approach. Our objectives were to introduce the RRM modelling approach to healthcare-related decisions, and to investigate its usefulness in this domain. Using data from DCEs aimed at determining valuations of attributes of osteoporosis drug treatments and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccinations, we empirically compared RRM models, RUM models and Hybrid RUM-RRM models in terms of goodness of fit, parameter ratios and predicted choice probabilities. In terms of model fit, the RRM model did not outperform the RUM model significantly in the case of the osteoporosis DCE data (p = 0.21), whereas in the case of the HPV DCE data, the Hybrid RUM-RRM model outperformed the RUM model (p implied by the two models can vary substantially. Differences in model fit between RUM, RRM and Hybrid RUM-RRM were found to be small. Although our study did not show significant differences in parameter ratios, the RRM and Hybrid RUM-RRM models did feature considerable differences in terms of the trade-offs implied by these ratios. In combination, our results suggest that RRM and Hybrid RUM-RRM modelling approach hold the potential of offering new and policy-relevant insights for health researchers and policy makers.

Modeling route choice criteria from home to major streets: A discrete choice approach

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Jose Osiris Vidana-Bencomo

2018-03-01

Full Text Available A discrete choice model that consists of three sub-models was developed to investigates the route choice criteria of drivers who travel from their homes in the morning to the access point along the major streets that bound the Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs. The first sub-model is a Nested Logit Model (NLM that estimates the probability of a driver has or has no multiple routes, and if the driver has multiple routes, the route selection criteria are based on the access point’s intersection control type or other factors. The second sub-model is a Mixed Logit (MXL model. It estimates the probabilities of the type of intersection control preferred by a driver. The third sub-model is a NLM that estimates the probabilities of a driver selecting his/her route for its shortest travel time or to avoid pedestrian, and if the aim is to take the fastest route, the decision criteria is based on the shortest distance or minimum stops and turns. Data gathered in a questionnaire survey were used to estimate the sub-models. The attributes of the utility functions of the sub-models are the driver’s demographic and trip characteristics. The model provides a means for transportation planners to distribute the total number of home-based trips generated within a TAZ to the access points along the major streets that bound the TAZ.

Understanding Predisposition in College Choice: Toward an Integrated Model of College Choice and Theory of Reasoned Action

Science.gov (United States)

Pitre, Paul E.; Johnson, Todd E.; Pitre, Charisse Cowan

2006-01-01

This article seeks to improve traditional models of college choice that draw from recruitment and enrollment management paradigms. In adopting a consumer approach to college choice, this article seeks to build upon consumer-related research, which centers on behavior and reasoning. More specifically, this article seeks to move inquiry beyond the…

Utility-free heuristic models of two-option choice can mimic predictions of utility-stage models under many conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Piantadosi, Steven T.; Hayden, Benjamin Y.

2015-01-01

Economists often model choices as if decision-makers assign each option a scalar value variable, known as utility, and then select the option with the highest utility. It remains unclear whether as-if utility models describe real mental and neural steps in choice. Although choices alone cannot prove the existence of a utility stage, utility transformations are often taken to provide the most parsimonious or psychologically plausible explanation for choice data. Here, we show that it is possible to mathematically transform a large set of common utility-stage two-option choice models (specifically ones in which dimensions are can be decomposed into additive functions) into a heuristic model (specifically, a dimensional prioritization heuristic) that has no utility computation stage. We then show that under a range of plausible assumptions, both classes of model predict similar neural responses. These results highlight the difficulties in using neuroeconomic data to infer the existence of a value stage in choice. PMID:25914613

Testing process predictions of models of risky choice: a quantitative model comparison approach

Science.gov (United States)

Pachur, Thorsten; Hertwig, Ralph; Gigerenzer, Gerd; Brandstätter, Eduard

2013-01-01

This article presents a quantitative model comparison contrasting the process predictions of two prominent views on risky choice. One view assumes a trade-off between probabilities and outcomes (or non-linear functions thereof) and the separate evaluation of risky options (expectation models). Another view assumes that risky choice is based on comparative evaluation, limited search, aspiration levels, and the forgoing of trade-offs (heuristic models). We derived quantitative process predictions for a generic expectation model and for a specific heuristic model, namely the priority heuristic (Brandstätter et al., 2006), and tested them in two experiments. The focus was on two key features of the cognitive process: acquisition frequencies (i.e., how frequently individual reasons are looked up) and direction of search (i.e., gamble-wise vs. reason-wise). In Experiment 1, the priority heuristic predicted direction of search better than the expectation model (although neither model predicted the acquisition process perfectly); acquisition frequencies, however, were inconsistent with both models. Additional analyses revealed that these frequencies were primarily a function of what Rubinstein (1988) called “similarity.” In Experiment 2, the quantitative model comparison approach showed that people seemed to rely more on the priority heuristic in difficult problems, but to make more trade-offs in easy problems. This finding suggests that risky choice may be based on a mental toolbox of strategies. PMID:24151472

Testing Process Predictions of Models of Risky Choice: A Quantitative Model Comparison Approach

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Thorsten ePachur

2013-09-01

Full Text Available This article presents a quantitative model comparison contrasting the process predictions of two prominent views on risky choice. One view assumes a trade-off between probabilities and outcomes (or nonlinear functions thereof and the separate evaluation of risky options (expectation models. Another view assumes that risky choice is based on comparative evaluation, limited search, aspiration levels, and the forgoing of trade-offs (heuristic models. We derived quantitative process predictions for a generic expectation model and for a specific heuristic model, namely the priority heuristic (Brandstätter, Gigerenzer, & Hertwig, 2006, and tested them in two experiments. The focus was on two key features of the cognitive process: acquisition frequencies (i.e., how frequently individual reasons are looked up and direction of search (i.e., gamble-wise vs. reason-wise. In Experiment 1, the priority heuristic predicted direction of search better than the expectation model (although neither model predicted the acquisition process perfectly; acquisition frequencies, however, were inconsistent with both models. Additional analyses revealed that these frequencies were primarily a function of what Rubinstein (1988 called similarity. In Experiment 2, the quantitative model comparison approach showed that people seemed to rely more on the priority heuristic in difficult problems, but to make more trade-offs in easy problems. This finding suggests that risky choice may be based on a mental toolbox of strategies.

Incorporating Responsiveness to Marketing Efforts in Brand Choice Modeling

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Dennis Fok

2014-02-01

Full Text Available We put forward a brand choice model with unobserved heterogeneity that concerns responsiveness to marketing efforts. We introduce two latent segments of households. The first segment is assumed to respond to marketing efforts, while households in the second segment do not do so. Whether a specific household is a member of the first or the second segment at a specific purchase occasion is described by household-specific characteristics and characteristics concerning buying behavior. Households may switch between the two responsiveness states over time. When comparing the performance of our model with alternative choice models that account for various forms of heterogeneity for three different datasets, we find better face validity for our parameters. Our model also forecasts better.

A Conditional Curie-Weiss Model for Stylized Multi-group Binary Choice with Social Interaction

Science.gov (United States)

Opoku, Alex Akwasi; Edusei, Kwame Owusu; Ansah, Richard Kwame

2018-04-01

This paper proposes a conditional Curie-Weiss model as a model for decision making in a stylized society made up of binary decision makers that face a particular dichotomous choice between two options. Following Brock and Durlauf (Discrete choice with social interaction I: theory, 1955), we set-up both socio-economic and statistical mechanical models for the choice problem. We point out when both the socio-economic and statistical mechanical models give rise to the same self-consistent equilibrium mean choice level(s). Phase diagram of the associated statistical mechanical model and its socio-economic implications are discussed.

Choices and Changes: Eccles' Expectancy-Value Model and Upper-Secondary School Students' Longitudinal Reflections about Their Choice of a STEM Education

Science.gov (United States)

Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

2016-01-01

During the past 30 years, Eccles' comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students in their last year in upper-secondary school…

MODELLING CONSUMER CHOICE IN THE MARKET SWITCHBOARD EQUIPMENT USING IBM SPSS STATISTICS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergey V. Mkhitaryan

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Modelling consumer choice in the marketswitch equipment will allow manufacturing enterprises to improve the efficiencyof design and marketing activities byreducing the financial and human losses associated with pre-treatment orders. Todevelop a model of consumer choice canbe used logistic regression.

A Conceptual Model of Leisure-Time Choice Behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Bergier, Michel J.

1981-01-01

Methods of studying the gap between predisposition and actual behavior of consumers of spectator sports is discussed. A model is drawn from the areas of behavioral sciences, consumer behavior, and leisure research. The model is constructed around the premise that choice is primarily a function of personal, product, and environmental factors. (JN)

Metro passengers’ route choice model and its application considering perceived transfer threshold

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Fanglei; Zhang, Yongsheng; Liu, Shasha

2017-01-01

With the rapid development of the Metro network in China, the greatly increased route alternatives make passengers’ route choice behavior and passenger flow assignment more complicated, which presents challenges to the operation management. In this paper, a path sized logit model is adopted to analyze passengers’ route choice preferences considering such parameters as in-vehicle time, number of transfers, and transfer time. Moreover, the “perceived transfer threshold” is defined and included in the utility function to reflect the penalty difference caused by transfer time on passengers’ perceived utility under various numbers of transfers. Next, based on the revealed preference data collected in the Guangzhou Metro, the proposed model is calibrated. The appropriate perceived transfer threshold value and the route choice preferences are analyzed. Finally, the model is applied to a personalized route planning case to demonstrate the engineering practicability of route choice behavior analysis. The results show that the introduction of the perceived transfer threshold is helpful to improve the model’s explanatory abilities. In addition, personalized route planning based on route choice preferences can meet passengers’ diversified travel demands. PMID:28957376

Model for understanding consumer textural food choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Jeltema, Melissa; Beckley, Jacqueline; Vahalik, Jennifer

2015-05-01

The current paradigm for developing products that will match the marketing messaging is flawed because the drivers of product choice and satisfaction based on texture are misunderstood. Qualitative research across 10 years has led to the thesis explored in this research that individuals have a preferred way to manipulate food in their mouths (i.e., mouth behavior) and that this behavior is a major driver of food choice, satisfaction, and the desire to repurchase. Texture, which is currently thought to be a major driver of product choice, is a secondary factor, and is important only in that it supports the primary driver-mouth behavior. A model for mouth behavior is proposed and the qualitative research supporting the identification of different mouth behaviors is presented. The development of a trademarked typing tool for characterizing mouth behavior is described along with quantitative substantiation of the tool's ability to group individuals by mouth behavior. The use of these four groups to understand textural preferences and the implications for a variety of areas including product design and weight management are explored.

Institutional influences on business model choice by new ventures in the microgenerated energy industry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Provance, Mike, E-mail: mprovanc@odu.edu [Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA 23529 (United States); Donnelly, Richard G.; Carayannis, Elias G. [George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052 (United States)

2011-09-15

Business model choice plays an important source of competitive advantage for new ventures in the microgeneration sector. Yet, existing literature focuses on strategic management of internal resources as the constraints in this choice process. In the energy sector, external factors may be at least as influential in shaping these business models. This paper examines the roles of politico-institutional and socio-institutional dynamics in the choice of business models for microgeneration ventures. Business models have traditionally been viewed as constructions of the internal values, strategies, and resources of organizations. But, this perspective overlooks the role that external forces have on these models, particularly in more highly institutionalized contexts like microgeneration. When these factors are introduced into the existing framework for business model choice, the business model based less on firm decision-making and more about variables that exist within national innovation systems and political structure, local socio-technological conditions, and cognitive abilities of the entrepreneur and corresponding stakeholders. - Highlights: > This work provides theoretical foundation for variation in microgeneration business models. > Explores institutional influences on strategic view of business model choice. > Compares the nature of microgeneration across geo-political contexts.

Institutional influences on business model choice by new ventures in the microgenerated energy industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Provance, Mike; Donnelly, Richard G.; Carayannis, Elias G.

2011-01-01

Business model choice plays an important source of competitive advantage for new ventures in the microgeneration sector. Yet, existing literature focuses on strategic management of internal resources as the constraints in this choice process. In the energy sector, external factors may be at least as influential in shaping these business models. This paper examines the roles of politico-institutional and socio-institutional dynamics in the choice of business models for microgeneration ventures. Business models have traditionally been viewed as constructions of the internal values, strategies, and resources of organizations. But, this perspective overlooks the role that external forces have on these models, particularly in more highly institutionalized contexts like microgeneration. When these factors are introduced into the existing framework for business model choice, the business model based less on firm decision-making and more about variables that exist within national innovation systems and political structure, local socio-technological conditions, and cognitive abilities of the entrepreneur and corresponding stakeholders. - Highlights: → This work provides theoretical foundation for variation in microgeneration business models. → Explores institutional influences on strategic view of business model choice. → Compares the nature of microgeneration across geo-political contexts.

Simple model for multiple-choice collective decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Ching Hua; Lucas, Andrew

2014-11-01

We describe a simple model of heterogeneous, interacting agents making decisions between n≥2 discrete choices. For a special class of interactions, our model is the mean field description of random field Potts-like models and is effectively solved by finding the extrema of the average energy E per agent. In these cases, by studying the propagation of decision changes via avalanches, we argue that macroscopic dynamics is well captured by a gradient flow along E. We focus on the permutation symmetric case, where all n choices are (on average) the same, and spontaneous symmetry breaking (SSB) arises purely from cooperative social interactions. As examples, we show that bimodal heterogeneity naturally provides a mechanism for the spontaneous formation of hierarchies between decisions and that SSB is a preferred instability to discontinuous phase transitions between two symmetric points. Beyond the mean field limit, exponentially many stable equilibria emerge when we place this model on a graph of finite mean degree. We conclude with speculation on decision making with persistent collective oscillations. Throughout the paper, we emphasize analogies between methods of solution to our model and common intuition from diverse areas of physics, including statistical physics and electromagnetism.

A discrete choice approach to define individual parking choice behaviour for the Parkagent model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Khaliq, A.; Van Der Waerden, P.J.H.J.; Janssens, D.

2017-01-01

PARKAGENT is an agent based model for simulating parking search in the city. In PARKAGENT, the agents choose a parking spot based on the expected number of free parking spaces, distance to destination and length of parking space. For a true representation of underlying parking choice behaviour of

Pairwise Choice Markov Chains

OpenAIRE

Ragain, Stephen; Ugander, Johan

2016-01-01

As datasets capturing human choices grow in richness and scale---particularly in online domains---there is an increasing need for choice models that escape traditional choice-theoretic axioms such as regularity, stochastic transitivity, and Luce's choice axiom. In this work we introduce the Pairwise Choice Markov Chain (PCMC) model of discrete choice, an inferentially tractable model that does not assume any of the above axioms while still satisfying the foundational axiom of uniform expansio...

Understanding the formation and influence of attitudes in patients' treatment choices for lower back pain: Testing the benefits of a hybrid choice model approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kløjgaard, Mirja Elisabeth; Hess, S.

2014-01-01

A growing number of studies across different fields are making use of a new class of choice models, labelled variably as hybrid model structures or integrated choice and latent variable models, and incorporating the role of attitudes in decision making. To date, this technique has not been used...... in spring/summer 2012. We show how the hybrid model structure is able to make a link between attitudinal questions and treatment choices, and also explains variation of these attitudes across key socio-demographic groups. However, we also show how, in this case, only a small share of the overall...

How the twain can meet: Prospect theory and models of heuristics in risky choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Pachur, Thorsten; Suter, Renata S; Hertwig, Ralph

2017-03-01

Two influential approaches to modeling choice between risky options are algebraic models (which focus on predicting the overt decisions) and models of heuristics (which are also concerned with capturing the underlying cognitive process). Because they rest on fundamentally different assumptions and algorithms, the two approaches are usually treated as antithetical, or even incommensurable. Drawing on cumulative prospect theory (CPT; Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) as the currently most influential instance of a descriptive algebraic model, we demonstrate how the two modeling traditions can be linked. CPT's algebraic functions characterize choices in terms of psychophysical (diminishing sensitivity to probabilities and outcomes) as well as psychological (risk aversion and loss aversion) constructs. Models of heuristics characterize choices as rooted in simple information-processing principles such as lexicographic and limited search. In computer simulations, we estimated CPT's parameters for choices produced by various heuristics. The resulting CPT parameter profiles portray each of the choice-generating heuristics in psychologically meaningful ways-capturing, for instance, differences in how the heuristics process probability information. Furthermore, CPT parameters can reflect a key property of many heuristics, lexicographic search, and track the environment-dependent behavior of heuristics. Finally, we show, both in an empirical and a model recovery study, how CPT parameter profiles can be used to detect the operation of heuristics. We also address the limits of CPT's ability to capture choices produced by heuristics. Our results highlight an untapped potential of CPT as a measurement tool to characterize the information processing underlying risky choice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A likelihood-based biostatistical model for analyzing consumer movement in simultaneous choice experiments.

Science.gov (United States)

Zeilinger, Adam R; Olson, Dawn M; Andow, David A

2014-08-01

Consumer feeding preference among resource choices has critical implications for basic ecological and evolutionary processes, and can be highly relevant to applied problems such as ecological risk assessment and invasion biology. Within consumer choice experiments, also known as feeding preference or cafeteria experiments, measures of relative consumption and measures of consumer movement can provide distinct and complementary insights into the strength, causes, and consequences of preference. Despite the distinct value of inferring preference from measures of consumer movement, rigorous and biologically relevant analytical methods are lacking. We describe a simple, likelihood-based, biostatistical model for analyzing the transient dynamics of consumer movement in a paired-choice experiment. With experimental data consisting of repeated discrete measures of consumer location, the model can be used to estimate constant consumer attraction and leaving rates for two food choices, and differences in choice-specific attraction and leaving rates can be tested using model selection. The model enables calculation of transient and equilibrial probabilities of consumer-resource association, which could be incorporated into larger scale movement models. We explore the effect of experimental design on parameter estimation through stochastic simulation and describe methods to check that data meet model assumptions. Using a dataset of modest sample size, we illustrate the use of the model to draw inferences on consumer preference as well as underlying behavioral mechanisms. Finally, we include a user's guide and computer code scripts in R to facilitate use of the model by other researchers.

Building aggregate timber supply models from individual harvest choice

Science.gov (United States)

Maksym Polyakov; David N. Wear; Robert Huggett

2009-01-01

Timber supply has traditionally been modelled using aggregate data. In this paper, we build aggregate supply models for four roundwood products for the US state of North Carolina from a stand-level harvest choice model applied to detailed forest inventory. The simulated elasticities of pulpwood supply are much lower than reported by previous studies. Cross price...

Robustness of public choice models of voting behavior

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mihai UNGUREANU

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Modern economics modeling practice involves highly unrealistic assumptions. Since testing such models is not always an easy enterprise, researchers face the problem of determining whether a result is dependent (or not on the unrealistic details of the model. A solution for this problem is conducting robustness analysis. In its classical form, robustness analysis is a non-empirical method of confirmation – it raises our trust in a given result by implying it with from several different models. In this paper I argue that robustness analysis could be thought as a method of post-empirical failure. This form of robustness analysis involves assigning guilt for the empirical failure to a certain part of the model. Starting from this notion of robustness, I analyze a case of empirical failure from public choice theory or the economic approach of politics. Using the fundamental methodological principles of neoclassical economics, the first model of voting behavior implied that almost no one would vote. This was clearly an empirical failure. Public choice scholars faced the problem of either restraining the domain of their discipline or giving up to some of their neoclassical methodological features. The second solution was chosen and several different models of voting behavior were built. I will treat these models as a case for performing robustness analysis and I will determine which assumption from the original model is guilty for the empirical failure.

Optimal Effort in Consumer Choice : Theory and Experimental Evidence for Binary Choice

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Conlon, B.J.; Dellaert, B.G.C.; van Soest, A.H.O.

2001-01-01

This paper develops a theoretical model of optimal effort in consumer choice.The model extends previous consumer choice models in that the consumer not only chooses a product, but also decides how much effort to apply to a given choice problem.The model yields a unique optimal level of effort, which

Choices Matter, but How Do We Model Them?

Science.gov (United States)

Brelsford, C.; Dumas, M.

2017-12-01

Quantifying interactions between social systems and the physical environment we live within has long been a major scientific challenge. Humans have had such a large influence on our environment that it is no longer reasonable to consider the behavior of an ecological or hydrological system from a purely `physical' perspective: imagining a system that excludes the influence of human choices and behavior. Understanding the role that human social choices play in the energy water nexus is crucial for developing accurate models in that space. The relatively new field of socio-hydrology is making progress towards understanding the role humans play in hydrological systems. While this fact is now widely recognized across the many academic fields that study water systems, we have yet to develop a coherent set of theories for how to model the behavior of these complex and highly interdependent socio-hydrological systems. How should we conceptualize hydrological systems as socio-ecological systems (i.e. system with variables, states, parameters, actors who can control certain variables and a sense of the desirability of states) within which the rigorous study of feedbacks becomes possible? This talk reviews the state of knowledge of how social decisions around water consumption, allocation, and transport influence and are influenced by the physical hydrology that water also moves within. We cover recent papers in socio-hydrology, engineering, water law, and institutional analysis. There have been several calls within socio-hydrology to model human social behavior endogenously along with the hydrology. These improvements are needed across a range of spatial and temporal scales. We suggest two potential strategies for coupled models that allow endogenous water consumption behavior: a social first model which looks for empirical relationships between water consumption and allocation choices and the hydrological state, and a hydrology first model in which we look for regularities

Interneuronal Mechanism for Tinbergen’s Hierarchical Model of Behavioral Choice

Science.gov (United States)

Pirger, Zsolt; Crossley, Michael; László, Zita; Naskar, Souvik; Kemenes, György; O’Shea, Michael; Benjamin, Paul R.; Kemenes, Ildikó

2014-01-01

Summary Recent studies of behavioral choice support the notion that the decision to carry out one behavior rather than another depends on the reconfiguration of shared interneuronal networks [1]. We investigated another decision-making strategy, derived from the classical ethological literature [2, 3], which proposes that behavioral choice depends on competition between autonomous networks. According to this model, behavioral choice depends on inhibitory interactions between incompatible hierarchically organized behaviors. We provide evidence for this by investigating the interneuronal mechanisms mediating behavioral choice between two autonomous circuits that underlie whole-body withdrawal [4, 5] and feeding [6] in the pond snail Lymnaea. Whole-body withdrawal is a defensive reflex that is initiated by tactile contact with predators. As predicted by the hierarchical model, tactile stimuli that evoke whole-body withdrawal responses also inhibit ongoing feeding in the presence of feeding stimuli. By recording neurons from the feeding and withdrawal networks, we found no direct synaptic connections between the interneuronal and motoneuronal elements that generate the two behaviors. Instead, we discovered that behavioral choice depends on the interaction between two unique types of interneurons with asymmetrical synaptic connectivity that allows withdrawal to override feeding. One type of interneuron, the Pleuro-Buccal (PlB), is an extrinsic modulatory neuron of the feeding network that completely inhibits feeding when excited by touch-induced monosynaptic input from the second type of interneuron, Pedal-Dorsal12 (PeD12). PeD12 plays a critical role in behavioral choice by providing a synaptic pathway joining the two behavioral networks that underlies the competitive dominance of whole-body withdrawal over feeding. PMID:25155505

Assessing the value of museums with a combined discrete choice/ count data model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rouwendal, J.; Boter, J.

2009-01-01

This article assesses the value of Dutch museums using information about destination choice as well as about the number of trips undertaken by an actor. Destination choice is analysed by means of a mixed logit model, and a count data model is used to explain trip generation. We use a

Improving behavioral realism in hybrid energy-economy models using discrete choice studies of personal transportation decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horne, M.; Jaccard, M.; Tiedemann, K.

2005-01-01

Hybrid energy-economy models combine top-down and bottom-up approaches to explore behaviorally realistic responses to technology-focused policies. This research uses empirically derived discrete choice models to inform key behavioral parameters in CIMS, a hybrid model. The discrete choice models are estimated for vehicle and commuting decisions from a survey of 1150 Canadians. With the choice models integrated into CIMS, we simulate carbon taxes, gasoline vehicle disincentives, and single occupancy vehicle disincentives to show how different policy levers can motivate technological change. We also use the empirical basis for the choice models to portray uncertainty in technological change, costs, and emissions. (author)

Acquisition of choice in concurrent chains: Assessing the cumulative decision model.

Science.gov (United States)

Grace, Randolph C

2016-05-01

Concurrent chains is widely used to study pigeons' choice between terminal links that can vary in delay, magnitude, or probability of reinforcement. We review research on the acquisition of choice in this procedure. Acquisition has been studied with a variety of research designs, and some studies have incorporated no-food trials to allow for timing and choice to be observed concurrently. Results show that: Choice can be acquired rapidly within sessions when terminal links change unpredictably; under steady-state conditions, acquisition depends on both initial- and terminal-link schedules; and initial-link responding is mediated by learning about the terminal-link stimulus-reinforcer relations. The cumulative decision model (CDM) proposed by Christensen and Grace (2010) and Grace and McLean (2006, 2015) provides a good description of within-session acquisition, and correctly predicts the effects of initial and terminal-link schedules in steady-state designs (Grace, 2002a). Questions for future research include how abrupt shifts in preference within individual sessions and temporal control of terminal-link responding can be modeled. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

TAFV Alternative Fuels and Vehicles Choice Model Documentation; TOPICAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greene, D.L.

2001-01-01

A model for predicting choice of alternative fuel and among alternative vehicle technologies for light-duty motor vehicles is derived. The nested multinomial logit (NML) mathematical framework is used. Calibration of the model is based on information in the existing literature and deduction based on assuming a small number of key parameters, such as the value of time and discount rates. A spreadsheet model has been developed for calibration and preliminary testing of the model

A comparative study of machine learning classifiers for modeling travel mode choice

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hagenauer, J; Helbich, M

2017-01-01

The analysis of travel mode choice is an important task in transportation planning and policy making in order to understand and predict travel demands. While advances in machine learning have led to numerous powerful classifiers, their usefulness for modeling travel mode choice remains largely

Nutrieconomic model can facilitate healthy and low-cost food choices.

Science.gov (United States)

Primavesi, Laura; Caccavelli, Giovanna; Ciliberto, Alessandra; Pauze, Emmanuel

2015-04-01

Promotion of healthy eating can no longer be postponed as a priority, given the alarming growth rate of chronic degenerative diseases in Western countries. We elaborated a nutrieconomic model to assess and identify the most nutritious and affordable food choices. Seventy-one food items representing the main food categories were included and their nationally representative prices monitored. Food composition was determined using CRA-NUT (Centro di Ricerca per gli Alimenti e la Nutrizione) and IEO (Istituto Europeo di Oncologia) databases. To define food nutritional quality, the mean adequacy ratio and mean excess ratio were combined. Both prices and nutritional quality were normalised for the edible food content and for the recommended serving sizes for the Italian adult population. Stores located in different provinces throughout Italy. Not applicable. Cereals and legumes presented very similar nutritional qualities and prices per serving. Seasonal fruits and vegetables presented differentiated nutritional qualities and almost equal prices. Products of animal origin showed similar nutritional qualities and varied prices: the best nutrieconomic choices were milk, oily fish and poultry for the dairy products, fish and meat groups, respectively. Analysing two balanced weekly menus, our nutrieconomic model was able to note a significant decrease in cost of approximately 30 % by varying animal-protein sources without affecting nutritional quality. Healthy eating does not necessarily imply spending large amounts of money but rather being able to make nutritionally optimal choices. The nutrieconomic model is an innovative and practical way to help consumers make correct food choices and nutritionists increase the compliance of their patients.

A novel concurrent pictorial choice model of mood-induced relapse in hazardous drinkers.

Science.gov (United States)

Hardy, Lorna; Hogarth, Lee

2017-12-01

This study tested whether a novel concurrent pictorial choice procedure, inspired by animal self-administration models, is sensitive to the motivational effect of negative mood induction on alcohol-seeking in hazardous drinkers. Forty-eight hazardous drinkers (scoring ≥7 on the Alcohol Use Disorders Inventory) recruited from the community completed measures of alcohol dependence, depression, and drinking coping motives. Baseline alcohol-seeking was measured by percent choice to enlarge alcohol- versus food-related thumbnail images in two alternative forced-choice trials. Negative and positive mood was then induced in succession by means of self-referential affective statements and music, and percent alcohol choice was measured after each induction in the same way as baseline. Baseline alcohol choice correlated with alcohol dependence severity, r = .42, p = .003, drinking coping motives (in two questionnaires, r = .33, p = .02 and r = .46, p = .001), and depression symptoms, r = .31, p = .03. Alcohol choice was increased by negative mood over baseline (p choice was not related to gender, alcohol dependence, drinking to cope, or depression symptoms (ps ≥ .37). The concurrent pictorial choice measure is a sensitive index of the relative value of alcohol, and provides an accessible experimental model to study negative mood-induced relapse mechanisms in hazardous drinkers. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

A framework for estimating health state utility values within a discrete choice experiment: modeling risky choices.

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Robinson, Angela; Spencer, Anne; Moffatt, Peter

2015-04-01

There has been recent interest in using the discrete choice experiment (DCE) method to derive health state utilities for use in quality-adjusted life year (QALY) calculations, but challenges remain. We set out to develop a risk-based DCE approach to derive utility values for health states that allowed 1) utility values to be anchored directly to normal health and death and 2) worse than dead health states to be assessed in the same manner as better than dead states. Furthermore, we set out to estimate alternative models of risky choice within a DCE model. A survey was designed that incorporated a risk-based DCE and a "modified" standard gamble (SG). Health state utility values were elicited for 3 EQ-5D health states assuming "standard" expected utility (EU) preferences. The DCE model was then generalized to allow for rank-dependent expected utility (RDU) preferences, thereby allowing for probability weighting. A convenience sample of 60 students was recruited and data collected in small groups. Under the assumption of "standard" EU preferences, the utility values derived within the DCE corresponded fairly closely to the mean results from the modified SG. Under the assumption of RDU preferences, the utility values estimated are somewhat lower than under the assumption of standard EU, suggesting that the latter may be biased upward. Applying the correct model of risky choice is important whether a modified SG or a risk-based DCE is deployed. It is, however, possible to estimate a probability weighting function within a DCE and estimate "unbiased" utility values directly, which is not possible within a modified SG. We conclude by setting out the relative strengths and weaknesses of the 2 approaches in this context. © The Author(s) 2014.

The Answering Process for Multiple-Choice Questions in Collaborative Learning: A Mathematical Learning Model Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Nishi, Shinnosuke; Muramatsu, Yuta; Yasutake, Koichi; Yamakawa, Osamu; Tagawa, Takahiro

2014-01-01

In this paper, we introduce a mathematical model for collaborative learning and the answering process for multiple-choice questions. The collaborative learning model is inspired by the Ising spin model and the model for answering multiple-choice questions is based on their difficulty level. An intensive simulation study predicts the possibility of…

Sample selection and taste correlation in discrete choice transport modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

2008-01-01

explain counterintuitive results in value of travel time estimation. However, the results also point at the difficulty of finding suitable instruments for the selection mechanism. Taste heterogeneity is another important aspect of discrete choice modelling. Mixed logit models are designed to capture...... the question for a broader class of models. It is shown that the original result may be somewhat generalised. Another question investigated is whether mode choice operates as a self-selection mechanism in the estimation of the value of travel time. The results show that self-selection can at least partly...... of taste correlation in willingness-to-pay estimation are presented. The first contribution addresses how to incorporate taste correlation in the estimation of the value of travel time for public transport. Given a limited dataset the approach taken is to use theory on the value of travel time as guidance...

Application of rrm as behavior mode choice on modelling transportation

Science.gov (United States)

Surbakti, M. S.; Sadullah, A. F.

2018-03-01

Transportation mode selection, the first step in transportation planning process, is probably one of the most important planning elements. The development of models that can explain the preference of passengers regarding their chosen mode of public transport option will contribute to the improvement and development of existing public transport. Logit models have been widely used to determine the mode choice models in which the alternative are different transport modes. Random Regret Minimization (RRM) theory is a theory developed from the behavior to choose (choice behavior) in a state of uncertainty. During its development, the theory was used in various disciplines, such as marketing, micro economy, psychology, management, and transportation. This article aims to show the use of RRM in various modes of selection, from the results of various studies that have been conducted both in north sumatera and western Java.

Airport Choice in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: An Application of the Conditional Logit Model

Science.gov (United States)

Moreno, Marcelo Baena; Muller, Carlos

2003-01-01

Using the conditional LOGIT model, this paper addresses the airport choice in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area. In this region, Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) and Congonhas Airport (CGH) compete for passengers flying to several domestic destinations. The airport choice is believed to be a result of the tradeoff passengers perform considering airport access characteristics, airline level of service characteristics and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. It was found that access time to the airports better explain the airport choice than access distance, whereas direct flight frequencies gives better explanation to the airport choice than the indirect (connections and stops) and total (direct plus indirect) flight frequencies. Out of 15 tested variables, passenger experience with the analyzed airports was the variable that best explained the airport choice in the region. Model specifications considering 1, 2 or 3 variables were tested. The model specification most adjusted to the observed data considered access time, direct flight frequencies in the travel period (morning or afternoon peak) and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. The influence of these variables was therefore analyzed across market segments according to departure airport and flight duration criteria. The choice of GRU (located neighboring Sao Paulo city) is not well explained by the rationality of access time economy and the increase of the supply of direct flight frequencies, while the choice of CGH (located inside Sao Paulo city) is. Access time was found to be more important to passengers flying shorter distances while direct flight frequencies in the travel period were more significant to those flying longer distances. Keywords: Airport choice, Multiple airport region, Conditional LOGIT model, Access time, Flight frequencies, Passenger experience with the analyzed airports, Transportation planning

Modelling Stochastic Route Choice Behaviours with a Closed-Form Mixed Logit Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xinjun Lai

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A closed-form mixed Logit approach is proposed to model the stochastic route choice behaviours. It combines both the advantages of Probit and Logit to provide a flexible form in alternatives correlation and a tractable form in expression; besides, the heterogeneity in alternative variance can also be addressed. Paths are compared by pairs where the superiority of the binary Probit can be fully used. The Probit-based aggregation is also used for a nested Logit structure. Case studies on both numerical and empirical examples demonstrate that the new method is valid and practical. This paper thus provides an operational solution to incorporate the normal distribution in route choice with an analytical expression.

Discrete Choice and Rational Inattention

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosgerau, Mogens; Melo, Emerson; de Palma, André

2017-01-01

This paper establishes a general equivalence between discrete choice and rational inattention models. Matejka and McKay (2015, AER) showed that when information costs are modelled using the Shannon entropy, the result- ing choice probabilities in the rational inattention model take the multinomial...... logit form. We show that when information costs are modelled using a class of generalized entropies, then the choice probabilities in any rational inattention model are observationally equivalent to some additive random utility discrete choice model and vice versa. This equivalence arises from convex...

The Effects of Land Use Patterns on Tour Type Choice. The Application of a Hybrid Choice Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

de Abreu e Silva, João; Sottile, Eleonora; Cherchi, Elisabetta

2014-01-01

to travel. Workers who reside in more central, mixed and traditional urban spaces tend to have a higher propensity to travel. Workers who live in more diverse areas have a higher probability of engaging in more complex work related tours. Working in more suburban areas reduces the probability of engaging......The relations between travel behavior and land use patterns have been the object of intensive research in the last two decades. Due to their immediate policy implications, mode choice and vehicle miles of travel (VMT) have been the main focus of attention. Other relevant dimensions, like trip...... of the latent propensity to travel in the discrete choice among types of tours. This model is applied to a travel diary of workers collected in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area in 2009. Different model specifications were built, testing the inclusion of purportedly built land use factors, which have the advantage...

Simultaneous modeling of visual saliency and value computation improves predictions of economic choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Towal, R Blythe; Mormann, Milica; Koch, Christof

2013-10-01

Many decisions we make require visually identifying and evaluating numerous alternatives quickly. These usually vary in reward, or value, and in low-level visual properties, such as saliency. Both saliency and value influence the final decision. In particular, saliency affects fixation locations and durations, which are predictive of choices. However, it is unknown how saliency propagates to the final decision. Moreover, the relative influence of saliency and value is unclear. Here we address these questions with an integrated model that combines a perceptual decision process about where and when to look with an economic decision process about what to choose. The perceptual decision process is modeled as a drift-diffusion model (DDM) process for each alternative. Using psychophysical data from a multiple-alternative, forced-choice task, in which subjects have to pick one food item from a crowded display via eye movements, we test four models where each DDM process is driven by (i) saliency or (ii) value alone or (iii) an additive or (iv) a multiplicative combination of both. We find that models including both saliency and value weighted in a one-third to two-thirds ratio (saliency-to-value) significantly outperform models based on either quantity alone. These eye fixation patterns modulate an economic decision process, also described as a DDM process driven by value. Our combined model quantitatively explains fixation patterns and choices with similar or better accuracy than previous models, suggesting that visual saliency has a smaller, but significant, influence than value and that saliency affects choices indirectly through perceptual decisions that modulate economic decisions.

Constructing food choice decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Sobal, Jeffery; Bisogni, Carole A

2009-12-01

Food choice decisions are frequent, multifaceted, situational, dynamic, and complex and lead to food behaviors where people acquire, prepare, serve, give away, store, eat, and clean up. Many disciplines and fields examine decision making. Several classes of theories are applicable to food decision making, including social behavior, social facts, and social definition perspectives. Each offers some insights but also makes limiting assumptions that prevent fully explaining food choice decisions. We used constructionist social definition perspectives to inductively develop a food choice process model that organizes a broad scope of factors and dynamics involved in food behaviors. This food choice process model includes (1) life course events and experiences that establish a food choice trajectory through transitions, turning points, timing, and contexts; (2) influences on food choices that include cultural ideals, personal factors, resources, social factors, and present contexts; and (3) a personal system that develops food choice values, negotiates and balances values, classifies foods and situations, and forms/revises food choice strategies, scripts, and routines. The parts of the model dynamically interact to make food choice decisions leading to food behaviors. No single theory can fully explain decision making in food behavior. Multiple perspectives are needed, including constructionist thinking.

A note on identification in discrete choice models with partial observability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosgerau, Mogens; Ranjan, Abhishek

2017-01-01

This note establishes a new identification result for additive random utility discrete choice models. A decision-maker associates a random utility Uj+ mj to each alternative in a finite set j∈ {1 , … , J} , where U= {U1, … , UJ} is unobserved by the researcher and random with an unknown joint dis...... for applications where choices are observed aggregated into groups while prices and attributes vary at the level of individual alternatives....

Endogenous Reactivity in a Dynamic Model of Consumer’s Choice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmad K. Naimzada

2012-01-01

Full Text Available We move from a boundedly rational consumer model (Naimzada and Tramontana, 2008, 2010 characterized by a gradient-like decisional process in which, under particular parameters conditions, the asymptotical convergence to the optimal choice does not happen but it does under a least squared learning mechanism. In the present paper, we prove that even a less sophisticated learning mechanism leads to convergence to the rational choice and also prove that convergence is ensured when both learning mechanisms are available. The stability results that we obtain give more strength to the rational behavior assumption of the original model; in fact, the less demanding is the learning mechanism ensuring convergence to the rational behavior, the higher is the probability that even quite naive consumers will learn the composition of their optimum consumption bundles.

Loss Aversion and Inhibition in Dynamical Models of Multialternative Choice

Science.gov (United States)

Usher, Marius; McClelland, James L.

2004-01-01

The roles of loss aversion and inhibition among alternatives are examined in models of the similarity, compromise, and attraction effects that arise in choices among 3 alternatives differing on 2 attributes. R. M. Roe, J. R. Busemeyer, and J. T. Townsend (2001) have proposed a linear model in which effects previously attributed to loss aversion…

Advanced Nuclear Fuel Cycle Transitions: Optimization, Modeling Choices, and Disruptions

Science.gov (United States)

Carlsen, Robert W.

Many nuclear fuel cycle simulators have evolved over time to help understan the nuclear industry/ecosystem at a macroscopic level. Cyclus is one of th first fuel cycle simulators to accommodate larger-scale analysis with it liberal open-source licensing and first-class Linux support. Cyclus also ha features that uniquely enable investigating the effects of modeling choices o fuel cycle simulators and scenarios. This work is divided into thre experiments focusing on optimization, effects of modeling choices, and fue cycle uncertainty. Effective optimization techniques are developed for automatically determinin desirable facility deployment schedules with Cyclus. A novel method fo mapping optimization variables to deployment schedules is developed. Thi allows relationships between reactor types and scenario constraints to b represented implicitly in the variable definitions enabling the usage o optimizers lacking constraint support. It also prevents wasting computationa resources evaluating infeasible deployment schedules. Deployed power capacit over time and deployment of non-reactor facilities are also included a optimization variables There are many fuel cycle simulators built with different combinations o modeling choices. Comparing results between them is often difficult. Cyclus flexibility allows comparing effects of many such modeling choices. Reacto refueling cycle synchronization and inter-facility competition among othe effects are compared in four cases each using combinations of fleet of individually modeled reactors with 1-month or 3-month time steps. There are noticeable differences in results for the different cases. The larges differences occur during periods of constrained reactor fuel availability This and similar work can help improve the quality of fuel cycle analysi generally There is significant uncertainty associated deploying new nuclear technologie such as time-frames for technology availability and the cost of buildin advanced reactors

A Model of Boundedly Rational Consumer Choice

OpenAIRE

Thomas Riechmann

2000-01-01

The paper presents an extended version of the standard textbook problem of consumer choice. As usual, agents have to decide about their desired quatities of various consumption goods, at the same time taking into account their limited budget. Prices for the goods are not fixed but arise from a Walrasian interaction of total demand and a stilized supply function for each of the goods. After showing that this type of model cannot be solved analytically, three different types of evolutionary alg...

Towards models of strategic spatial choice behaviour: theory and application issues

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Han, Q.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2005-01-01

Models of spatial choice behaviour have been around in urban planning for decades to assess the feasibility of planning actions or to predict external (competition) effects on existing destinations. The well known spatial interaction models of the 1970s have gradually been replaced by discrete

The role of intention as mediator between latent effects and behavior: application of a hybrid choice model to study departure time choices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorhauge, Mikkel; Cherchi, Elisabetta; Walker, Joan L.

2017-01-01

of them consider the effect of intention and its role as mediator between those psychological effects and the choice, as implied in the Theory of Planned Behavior. In this paper we contribute to the literature in this field by specifically studying the direct effect of the intention on the actual behavior......, while attitude, social norms, and perceived behavioral control affect the intention to behave in a given way. We apply a hybrid choice model to study the departure time choice. For this, we use data from Danish commuters in the morning rush hours in the Greater Copenhagen area. We find a significant...

How the health belief model helps the tobacco industry: individuals, choice, and "information".

Science.gov (United States)

Balbach, Edith D; Smith, Elizabeth A; Malone, Ruth E

2006-12-01

To analyse trial and deposition testimony of tobacco industry executives to determine how they use the concepts of "information" and "choice" and consider how these concepts are related to theoretical models of health behaviour change. We coded and analysed transcripts of trial and deposition testimony of 14 high-level executives representing six companies plus the Tobacco Institute. We conducted an interpretive analysis of industry executives' characterisation of the industry's role as information provider and the agency of tobacco consumers in making "choices". Tobacco industry executives deployed the concept of "information" as a mechanism that shifted to consumers full moral responsibility for the harms caused by tobacco products. The industry's role was characterised as that of impartial supplier of value-free "information", without regard to its quality, accuracy and truthfulness. Tobacco industry legal defences rely on assumptions congruent with and supported by individual rational choice theories, particularly those that emphasise individual, autonomous decision-makers. Tobacco control advocates and health educators must challenge the industry's preferred framing, pointing out that "information" is not value-free. Multi-level, multi-sectoral interventions are critical to tobacco use prevention. Over-reliance on individual and interpersonal rational choice models may have the effect of validating the industry's model of smoking and cessation behaviour, absolving it of responsibility and rendering invisible the "choices" the industry has made and continues to make in promoting the most deadly consumer product ever made.

A Joint Modeling Analysis of Passengers’ Intercity Travel Destination and Mode Choices in Yangtze River Delta Megaregion of China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanli Wang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Joint destination-mode travel choice models are developed for intercity long-distance travel among sixteen cities in Yangtze River Delta Megaregion of China. The model is developed for all the trips in the sample and also by two different trip purposes, work-related business and personal business trips, to accommodate different time values and attraction factors. A nested logit modeling framework is applied to model trip destination and mode choices in two different levels, where the lower level is a mode choice model and the upper level is a destination choice model. The utility values from various travel modes in the lower level are summarized into a composite utility, which is then specified into the destination choice model as an intercity impedance factor. The model is then applied to predict the change in passenger number from Shanghai to Yangzhou between scenarios with and without high-speed rail service to demonstrate the applicability. It is helpful for understanding and modeling megaregional travel destination and mode choice behaviors in the context of developing country.

Do Methodological Choices in Environmental Modeling Bias Rebound Effects? A Case Study on Electric Cars.

Science.gov (United States)

Font Vivanco, David; Tukker, Arnold; Kemp, René

2016-10-18

Improvements in resource efficiency often underperform because of rebound effects. Calculations of the size of rebound effects are subject to various types of bias, among which methodological choices have received particular attention. Modellers have primarily focused on choices related to changes in demand, however, choices related to modeling the environmental burdens from such changes have received less attention. In this study, we analyze choices in the environmental assessment methods (life cycle assessment (LCA) and hybrid LCA) and environmental input-output databases (E3IOT, Exiobase and WIOD) used as a source of bias. The analysis is done for a case study on battery electric and hydrogen cars in Europe. The results describe moderate rebound effects for both technologies in the short term. Additionally, long-run scenarios are calculated by simulating the total cost of ownership, which describe notable rebound effect sizes-from 26 to 59% and from 18 to 28%, respectively, depending on the methodological choices-with favorable economic conditions. Relevant sources of bias are found to be related to incomplete background systems, technology assumptions and sectorial aggregation. These findings highlight the importance of the method setup and of sensitivity analyses of choices related to environmental modeling in rebound effect assessments.

Effect of social influence on consumer choice behavior using a sequential stated choice experiment: A study of city trip itinerary choice

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pan, X.; Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2018-01-01

This paper introduces a model that captures the effect of social influence on individual choice behavior. The suggested model shares with previous models the idea to add a term to the deterministic utility function of the choice alternative, chosen by a social network member, to measure an

The sensitivity of ecosystem service models to choices of input data and spatial resolution

Science.gov (United States)

Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Cohen, Erika; Ancona, Zachary H.; McNulty, Steven; Sun, Ge

2018-01-01

Although ecosystem service (ES) modeling has progressed rapidly in the last 10–15 years, comparative studies on data and model selection effects have become more common only recently. Such studies have drawn mixed conclusions about whether different data and model choices yield divergent results. In this study, we compared the results of different models to address these questions at national, provincial, and subwatershed scales in Rwanda. We compared results for carbon, water, and sediment as modeled using InVEST and WaSSI using (1) land cover data at 30 and 300 m resolution and (2) three different input land cover datasets. WaSSI and simpler InVEST models (carbon storage and annual water yield) were relatively insensitive to the choice of spatial resolution, but more complex InVEST models (seasonal water yield and sediment regulation) produced large differences when applied at differing resolution. Six out of nine ES metrics (InVEST annual and seasonal water yield and WaSSI) gave similar predictions for at least two different input land cover datasets. Despite differences in mean values when using different data sources and resolution, we found significant and highly correlated results when using Spearman's rank correlation, indicating consistent spatial patterns of high and low values. Our results confirm and extend conclusions of past studies, showing that in certain cases (e.g., simpler models and national-scale analyses), results can be robust to data and modeling choices. For more complex models, those with different output metrics, and subnational to site-based analyses in heterogeneous environments, data and model choices may strongly influence study findings.

Modeling hurricane evacuation traffic : testing the gravity and intervening opportunity models as models of destination choice in hurricane evacuation.

Science.gov (United States)

2006-09-01

The test was conducted by estimating the models on a portion of evacuation data from South Carolina following Hurricane Floyd, and then observing how well the models reproduced destination choice at the county level on the remaining data. The tests s...

Analyzing Multiple-Choice Questions by Model Analysis and Item Response Curves

Science.gov (United States)

Wattanakasiwich, P.; Ananta, S.

2010-07-01

In physics education research, the main goal is to improve physics teaching so that most students understand physics conceptually and be able to apply concepts in solving problems. Therefore many multiple-choice instruments were developed to probe students' conceptual understanding in various topics. Two techniques including model analysis and item response curves were used to analyze students' responses from Force and Motion Conceptual Evaluation (FMCE). For this study FMCE data from more than 1000 students at Chiang Mai University were collected over the past three years. With model analysis, we can obtain students' alternative knowledge and the probabilities for students to use such knowledge in a range of equivalent contexts. The model analysis consists of two algorithms—concentration factor and model estimation. This paper only presents results from using the model estimation algorithm to obtain a model plot. The plot helps to identify a class model state whether it is in the misconception region or not. Item response curve (IRC) derived from item response theory is a plot between percentages of students selecting a particular choice versus their total score. Pros and cons of both techniques are compared and discussed.

A Day-to-Day Route Choice Model Based on Reinforcement Learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fangfang Wei

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Day-to-day traffic dynamics are generated by individual traveler’s route choice and route adjustment behaviors, which are appropriate to be researched by using agent-based model and learning theory. In this paper, we propose a day-to-day route choice model based on reinforcement learning and multiagent simulation. Travelers’ memory, learning rate, and experience cognition are taken into account. Then the model is verified and analyzed. Results show that the network flow can converge to user equilibrium (UE if travelers can remember all the travel time they have experienced, but which is not necessarily the case under limited memory; learning rate can strengthen the flow fluctuation, but memory leads to the contrary side; moreover, high learning rate results in the cyclical oscillation during the process of flow evolution. Finally, both the scenarios of link capacity degradation and random link capacity are used to illustrate the model’s applications. Analyses and applications of our model demonstrate the model is reasonable and useful for studying the day-to-day traffic dynamics.

Choice probability generating functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

2010-01-01

This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications....... The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended to competing risk survival models....

Exploring alternatives to rational choice in models of Behaviour:An investigation using travel mode choice

OpenAIRE

Thomas, Gregory Owen

2014-01-01

The car is the most popular travel mode in the UK, but reliance on the car has numerous negative effects on health, the economy, and the environment. Encouraging sustainable travel mode choices (modal choice) can minimise these problems. To promote behaviour change, psychologists have an interest in understanding modal choice. Historically, modal choice has been understood as a reasoned and rational decision that requires a conscious assessment of thoughts and attitudes: but evidence suggests...

Perceived and Implicit Ranking of Academic Journals: An Optimization Choice Model

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Frank Tian; Cai, Jane Z.; Pan, Yue

2012-01-01

A new system of ranking academic journals is proposed in this study and optimization choice model used to analyze data collected from 346 faculty members in a business discipline. The ranking model uses the aggregation of perceived, implicit sequencing of academic journals by academicians, therefore eliminating several key shortcomings of previous…

The selection of a mode of urban transportation: Integrating psychological variables to discrete choice models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cordoba Maquilon, Jorge E; Gonzalez Calderon, Carlos A; Posada Henao, John J

2011-01-01

A study using revealed preference surveys and psychological tests was conducted. Key psychological variables of behavior involved in the choice of transportation mode in a population sample of the Metropolitan Area of the Valle de Aburra were detected. The experiment used the random utility theory for discrete choice models and reasoned action in order to assess beliefs. This was used as a tool for analysis of the psychological variables using the sixteen personality factor questionnaire (16PF test). In addition to the revealed preference surveys, two other surveys were carried out: one with socio-economic characteristics and the other with latent indicators. This methodology allows for an integration of discrete choice models and latent variables. The integration makes the model operational and quantifies the unobservable psychological variables. The most relevant result obtained was that anxiety affects the choice of urban transportation mode and shows that physiological alterations, as well as problems in perception and beliefs, can affect the decision-making process.

Importance of the habitat choice behavior assumed when modeling the effects of food and temperature on fish populations

Science.gov (United States)

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Lamberson, Peter J.

2004-01-01

Various mechanisms of habitat choice in fishes based on food and/or temperature have been proposed: optimal foraging for food alone; behavioral thermoregulation for temperature alone; and behavioral energetics and discounted matching for food and temperature combined. Along with development of habitat choice mechanisms, there has been a major push to develop and apply to fish populations individual-based models that incorporate various forms of these mechanisms. However, it is not known how the wide variation in observed and hypothesized mechanisms of fish habitat choice could alter fish population predictions (e.g. growth, size distributions, etc.). We used spatially explicit, individual-based modeling to compare predicted fish populations using different submodels of patch choice behavior under various food and temperature distributions. We compared predicted growth, temperature experience, food consumption, and final spatial distribution using the different models. Our results demonstrated that the habitat choice mechanism assumed in fish population modeling simulations was critical to predictions of fish distribution and growth rates. Hence, resource managers who use modeling results to predict fish population trends should be very aware of and understand the underlying patch choice mechanisms used in their models to assure that those mechanisms correctly represent the fish populations being modeled.

Quantum Cournot equilibrium for the Hotelling–Smithies model of product choice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rahaman, Ramij; Majumdar, Priyadarshi; Basu, B

2012-01-01

This paper demonstrates the quantization of a spatial Cournot duopoly model with product choice, a two stage game focusing on non-cooperation in locations and quantities. With quantization, the players can access a continuous set of strategies, using a continuous variable quantum mechanical approach. The presence of quantum entanglement in the initial state identifies a quantity equilibrium for each location pair choice with any transport cost. Also higher profit is obtained by the firms at Nash equilibrium. Adoption of quantum strategies rewards us by the existence of a larger quantum strategic space at equilibrium. (paper)

Socio-demographic characteristics affecting sport tourism choices: A structural model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nataša Slak Valek

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Background: Effective tourism management in the field of sports tourism requires an understanding of differences in socioeconomic characteristics both within and between different market segments. Objective: In the broad tourism market demographic characteristics have been extensively analyzed for differences in destination choices, however little is known about demographic factors affecting sport tourists' decisions. Methods: A sample of Slovenian sports tourists was analyzed using data from a comprehensive survey of local and outbound tourist activity conducted by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia in 2008. After data weighting the information for 353,783 sports related trips were available for analysis. The research model adopted suggests that four socio-demographic characteristics (gender, age, level of education and income significantly affect a tourist's choice of sports related travel either locally within Slovenia or to a foreign country. Furthermore the destination (local or foreign has an influence on the choice of the type of accommodation selected and the tourist's total expenditure for the trip. For testing the first part of our model (the socio-demographic characteristics effects a linear regression was used, and for the final part of the model (the selection of accommodation type and travel expenditure t-test were applied. Results: The result shows the standardized β regression coefficients are all statistically significant at the .001 level for the tested socio-demographic characteristics and also the overall regression model was statistically significant at .001 level. Conclusions: With these results the study confirmed that all the selected socio-demographic characteristics have a significant influence on the sport-active tourist when choosing between a domestic and foreign tourism destination which in turn affect the type of accommodation chosen and the level of expenditure while travelling.

The choice of a biological model in assessing internal dose equivalent

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parodo, A.; Erre, N.

1977-01-01

Many are the biological models related to kinetic behavior of radioactive materials within the organism, or in an organ. This is true particularly for the metabolic kinetics of bone-seekers radionuclides described differently by various authors: as a consequence, different forms of the retention function have been used in calculating internal dose equivalent. In our opinion, the retention functions expressed as linear combinations of exponential terms with negative exponents are preferable. In fact, they can be obtained by coherent compartmental analysis and allow a mathematical formalism fairly well definite and easily adaptable to computers. Moreover, it is possible to make use of graphs and monograms already published. The role of the biological model in internal dosimetry, referred to the reliability of the quantitative informations on the kinetic behavior of the radionuclides in the organism and, therefrom, to the accuracy of the doses calculated, is discussed. By comparing the results obtained with different biological models, one finds that the choice of a model is less important than the choice of the value of the appropriate parameters

A comprehensive dwelling unit choice model accommodating psychological constructs within a search strategy for consideration set formation.

Science.gov (United States)

2015-12-01

This study adopts a dwelling unit level of analysis and considers a probabilistic choice set generation approach for residential choice modeling. In doing so, we accommodate the fact that housing choices involve both characteristics of the dwelling u...

Sensorimotor learning biases choice behavior: a learning neural field model for decision making.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian Klaes

Full Text Available According to a prominent view of sensorimotor processing in primates, selection and specification of possible actions are not sequential operations. Rather, a decision for an action emerges from competition between different movement plans, which are specified and selected in parallel. For action choices which are based on ambiguous sensory input, the frontoparietal sensorimotor areas are considered part of the common underlying neural substrate for selection and specification of action. These areas have been shown capable of encoding alternative spatial motor goals in parallel during movement planning, and show signatures of competitive value-based selection among these goals. Since the same network is also involved in learning sensorimotor associations, competitive action selection (decision making should not only be driven by the sensory evidence and expected reward in favor of either action, but also by the subject's learning history of different sensorimotor associations. Previous computational models of competitive neural decision making used predefined associations between sensory input and corresponding motor output. Such hard-wiring does not allow modeling of how decisions are influenced by sensorimotor learning or by changing reward contingencies. We present a dynamic neural field model which learns arbitrary sensorimotor associations with a reward-driven Hebbian learning algorithm. We show that the model accurately simulates the dynamics of action selection with different reward contingencies, as observed in monkey cortical recordings, and that it correctly predicted the pattern of choice errors in a control experiment. With our adaptive model we demonstrate how network plasticity, which is required for association learning and adaptation to new reward contingencies, can influence choice behavior. The field model provides an integrated and dynamic account for the operations of sensorimotor integration, working memory and action

A constrained multinomial Probit route choice model in the metro network: Formulation, estimation and application

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yongsheng; Wei, Heng; Zheng, Kangning

2017-01-01

Considering that metro network expansion brings us with more alternative routes, it is attractive to integrate the impacts of routes set and the interdependency among alternative routes on route choice probability into route choice modeling. Therefore, the formulation, estimation and application of a constrained multinomial probit (CMNP) route choice model in the metro network are carried out in this paper. The utility function is formulated as three components: the compensatory component is a function of influencing factors; the non-compensatory component measures the impacts of routes set on utility; following a multivariate normal distribution, the covariance of error component is structured into three parts, representing the correlation among routes, the transfer variance of route, and the unobserved variance respectively. Considering multidimensional integrals of the multivariate normal probability density function, the CMNP model is rewritten as Hierarchical Bayes formula and M-H sampling algorithm based Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach is constructed to estimate all parameters. Based on Guangzhou Metro data, reliable estimation results are gained. Furthermore, the proposed CMNP model also shows a good forecasting performance for the route choice probabilities calculation and a good application performance for transfer flow volume prediction. PMID:28591188

Emerging Australian Education Markets: A Discrete Choice Model of Taiwanese and Indonesian Student Intended Study Destination.

Science.gov (United States)

Kemp, Steven; Madden, Gary; Simpson, Michael

1998-01-01

Isolates factors influencing choice of Australia as a preferred destination for international students in emerging regional markets. Uses data obtained from a survey of students in Indonesia and Taiwan to estimate a U.S./Australia and rest-of-world/Australia discrete destination-choice model. This model identifies key factors determining country…

A Stochastic Route Choice Model for Car Travellers in the Copenhagen Region

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Otto Anker; Frederiksen, Rasmus Dyhr; Daly, A.

2002-01-01

The paper presents a large-scale stochastic road traffic assignment model for the Copenhagen Region. The model considers several classes of passenger cars (different trip purposes), vans and trucks, each with its own utility function on which route choices are based. The utility functions include...

Model complexity and choice of model approaches for practical simulations of CO₂ injection, migration, leakage and long-term fate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Celia, Michael A. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)

2016-12-30

This report documents the accomplishments achieved during the project titled “Model complexity and choice of model approaches for practical simulations of CO₂ injection,migration, leakage and long-term fate” funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy. The objective of the project was to investigate modeling approaches of various levels of complexity relevant to geologic carbon storage (GCS) modeling with the goal to establish guidelines on choice of modeling approach.

How urban environment affects travel behavior? Integrated Choice and Latent Variable Model for Travel Schedules

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

La Paix, Lissy; Bierlaire, Michel; Cherchi, Elisabetta

2013-01-01

The relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour is not a new problem. Neighbourhood characteristics may affect mobility of dwellers in different ways, such as frequency of trips, mode used, structure of the tours, and so on. At the same time, qualitative issues related...... to the individual attitude towards specific behaviour have recently become important in transport modelling contributing to a better understanding of travel demand. Following this research line, in this paper we study the effect of neighbourhood characteristics in the choice of the type of tours performed, but we...... assume that neighbourhood characteristics can also affect the individual propensity to travel and hence the choice of the tours throughout the propensity to travel. Since the propensity to travel is not observed, we employ hybrid choice models to estimate jointly the discrete choice of tours...

Modelling the Choices of Romanian Consumers in the Context of the Current Economic Crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Madalina Balau

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Consumption is a key factor of the nowadays post-industrial society, while it is a real engine ofproduction, diversity of offer and demand, and motive for innovation. On the other side, consumption can beharmful to the same society and to environment if it develops in an un-sustainable way. That is why,understanding the consumer behaviour is of great importance not only to satisfy his or her needs but also tofind appropriate means to educate people and issue policies that can lead to sustainable consumption anddevelopment. The paper presents some models and theories regarding the consumer behaviour and proposesmeans to influence consumption characteristics and habits of people. The modelling approach isdeterministic, using Expectancy-Value theory, taking into account not only explicit (rational choices but alsohabits or incentives (non-rational choices, in a weighted quantitative model. The novelty of the approachconsists in the way non-rational choices are taken into consideration for the existing model, and on how it isused in determining directions for sustainable consumption. The study is developed on public data regardingconsumers of general goods in Romania.

Investigating Spatial Interdependence in E-Bike Choice Using Spatially Autoregressive Model

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Chengcheng Xu

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Increased attention has been given to promoting e-bike usage in recent years. However, the research gap still exists in understanding the effects of spatial interdependence on e-bike choice. This study investigated how spatial interdependence affected the e-bike choice. The Moran’s I statistic test showed that spatial interdependence exists in e-bike choice at aggregated level. Bayesian spatial autoregressive logistic analyses were then used to investigate the spatial interdependence at individual level. Separate models were developed for commuting and non-commuting trips. The factors affecting e-bike choice are different between commuting and non-commuting trips. Spatial interdependence exists at both origin and destination sides of commuting and non-commuting trips. Travellers are more likely to choose e-bikes if their neighbours at the trip origin and destination also travel by e-bikes. And the magnitude of this spatial interdependence is different across various traffic analysis zones. The results suggest that, without considering spatial interdependence, the traditional methods may have biased estimation results and make systematic forecasting errors.

Food and energy choices for India: a programming model with partial endogenous energy requirements.

Science.gov (United States)

Parikh, K S; Srinivasan, T N

1980-09-01

This paper presents a mathematical model for all matter-energy processing subsystems at the level of the society, specifically India. It explores India's choices in the food and energy sectors over the coming decades. Alternative land intensive, irrigation energy intensive, and fertilizer intensive techniques of food production are identified using a nonlinear programming model. The land saved is devoted to growing firewood. The optimum combination of railway (steam, diesel, and electric traction) and road (automobiles, diesel trucks, and diesel and gasoline buses) transport is determined. For the oil sector, two alternative sources of supply of crude oil and petroleum products are included, namely, domestic production and imports. The optimum choice is determined through a linear programming model. While the model is basically a static one, designed to determine the optimal choice for the target year of 2000-2001, certain intertemporal detail is incorporated for electricity generation. The model minimizes the costs of meeting the needs for food, transport in terms of passenger kilometers and goods per ton per kilometer, energy needs for domestic cooking and lighting, and the energy needs of the rest of the economy.

The axiom of choice

CERN Document Server

Jech, Thomas J

2008-01-01

Comprehensive in its selection of topics and results, this self-contained text examines the relative strengths and consequences of the axiom of choice. Each chapter contains several problems, graded according to difficulty, and concludes with some historical remarks.An introduction to the use of the axiom of choice is followed by explorations of consistency, permutation models, and independence. Subsequent chapters examine embedding theorems, models with finite supports, weaker versions of the axiom, and nontransferable statements. The final sections consider mathematics without choice, cardin

A Bayesian Network Model on the Public Bicycle Choice Behavior of Residents: A Case Study of Xi’an

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qiuping Wang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In order to study the main factors affecting the behaviors that city residents make regarding public bicycle choice and to further study the public bicycle user’s personal characteristics and travel characteristics, a travel mode choice model based on a Bayesian network was established. Taking residents of Xi’an as the research object, a K2 algorithm combined with mutual information and expert knowledge was proposed for Bayesian network structure learning. The Bayesian estimation method was used to estimate the parameters of the network, and a Bayesian network model was established to reflect the interactions among the public bicycle choice behaviors along with other major factors. The K-fold cross-validation method was used to validate the model performance, and the hit rate of each travel mode was more than 80%, indicating the precision of the proposed model. Experimental results also present the higher classification accuracy of the proposed model. Therefore, it may be concluded that the resident travel mode choice may be accurately predicted according to the Bayesian network model proposed in our study. Additionally, this model may be employed to analyze and discuss changes in the resident public bicycle choice and to note that they may possibly be influenced by different travelers’ characteristics and trip characteristics.

Risk Route Choice Analysis and the Equilibrium Model under Anticipated Regret Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

pengcheng yuan

2014-02-01

Full Text Available The assumption about travellers’ route choice behaviour has major influence on the traffic flow equilibrium analysis. Previous studies about the travellers’ route choice were mainly based on the expected utility maximization theory. However, with the gradually increasing knowledge about the uncertainty of the transportation system, the researchers have realized that there is much constraint in expected util­ity maximization theory, because expected utility maximiza­tion requires travellers to be ‘absolutely rational’; but in fact, travellers are not truly ‘absolutely rational’. The anticipated regret theory proposes an alternative framework to the tra­ditional risk-taking in route choice behaviour which might be more scientific and reasonable. We have applied the antici­pated regret theory to the analysis of the risk route choosing process, and constructed an anticipated regret utility func­tion. By a simple case which includes two parallel routes, the route choosing results influenced by the risk aversion degree, regret degree and the environment risk degree have been analyzed. Moreover, the user equilibrium model based on the anticipated regret theory has been established. The equivalence and the uniqueness of the model are proved; an efficacious algorithm is also proposed to solve the model. Both the model and the algorithm are demonstrated in a real network. By an experiment, the model results and the real data have been compared. It was found that the model re­sults can be similar to the real data if a proper regret degree parameter is selected. This illustrates that the model can better explain the risk route choosing behaviour. Moreover, it was also found that the traveller’ regret degree increases when the environment becomes more and more risky.

Decision-Tree Models of Categorization Response Times, Choice Proportions, and Typicality Judgments

Science.gov (United States)

Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.

2009-01-01

The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…

Momentous Choices: Testing nonstandard decision models in health and housing markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M. Filko (Martin)

2013-01-01

markdownabstract__Abstract__ During more than half a century, several strands of research contributed to the development of decision theory. The standard normative model for choice under uncertainty – expected utility – was given a foundation by von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944) and Savage

MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF PREFERED SOLUTIONS CHOICE FUNCTION FOR TUBULAR GAS HEATERS BY EXPERIMENTAL INFORMATIONS

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BARSUK R. V.

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Annotation. Problems formulation. The article deals with choice functions building of preferred solutions by experimental information for tubular gas heater working on fuel granules - pellets.Further choice functions using for making technical solutions by tubular gas heaters construction and designing. Recently research analysis. There are works about choice functions construction by separate presents are examined. But full chose functions building by separate presents are not examined. Aims and tasks. There are setting aim to develop full choice functions mathematical model on separate presents by authors. The expert are connect to primary experimental data’s evaluation that estimates separate results by output functions (criteria. Its evaluations issue in experimental points paired comparison’s table form. Thus, there are necessary construct binary choice relations presents on experimental “points” set by expert that then using for full choice function’s constructing. Conclusions. There are choice function’s construction’s sequence are sets. There are posed point comparison results that characterized tubular gas heater’s condition with expert’s evaluation using. Also posed output functions comparisons by which can be characterized improving tubular gas heater’s performance or vice versa.

Choice probability generating functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

2013-01-01

This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended...

The importance of regret minimization in the choice for renewable energy programmes: Evidence from a discrete choice experiment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boeri, Marco; Longo, Alberto

2017-01-01

This study provides a methodologically rigorous attempt to disentangle the impact of various factors – unobserved heterogeneity, information and environmental attitudes – on the inclination of individuals to exhibit either a utility maximization or a regret minimization behaviour in a discrete choice experiment for renewable energy programmes described by four attributes: greenhouse gas emissions, power outages, employment in the energy sector, and electricity bill. We explore the ability of different models – multinomial logit, random parameters logit, and hybrid latent class – and of different choice paradigms – utility maximization and regret minimization – in explaining people's choices for renewable energy programmes. The “pure” random regret random parameters logit model explains the choices of our respondents better than other models, indicating that regret is an important choice paradigm, and that choices for renewable energy programmes are mostly driven by regret, rather than by rejoice. In particular, we find that our respondents' choices are driven more by changes in greenhouse gas emissions than by reductions in power outages. Finally, we find that changing the level of information to one attribute has no effect on choices, and that being a member of an environmental organization makes a respondent more likely to be associated with the utility maximization choice framework. - Highlights: • The first paper to use the Random Regret Minimization choice paradigm in energy economics • With a hybrid latent class model, choices conform to either utility or pure random regret. • The pure random regret random parameters logit model outperforms other models. • Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is more important than reducing power outages.

Accounting for perception in random regret choice models: Weberian and generalized Weberian specifications

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jang, S.; Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2016-01-01

Recently, regret-based choice models have been introduced in the travel behavior research community as an alternative to expected/random utility models. The fundamental proposition underlying regret theory is that individuals minimize the amount of regret they (are expected to) experience when

A discrete-continuous choice model of climate change impacts on energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morrison, W.N.; Mendelsohn, R.

1998-01-01

This paper estimates a discrete-continuous fuel choice model in order to explore climate impacts on the energy sector. The model is estimated on a national data set of firms and households. The results reveal that actors switch from oil in cold climates to electricity and natural gas in warm climates and that fuel-specific expenditures follow a U-shaped relationship with respect to temperature. The model implies that warming will increase American energy expenditures, reflecting a sizable welfare damage

Modeling tourists joint choices of transportation and destination : towards an analytical tool to support the marketing of complex tourism services

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dellaert, B.G.C.; Borgers, A.W.J.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

1993-01-01

This paper introduces a model to describe tourists’ joint choices of transportation and destination. The proposed modeling approach is based on the principles and methodology of decompositional choice modeling. It represents an extension of the models that have traditionally been applied to single

Determinants of Awareness, Consideration, and Choice Set Size in University Choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Dawes, Philip L.; Brown, Jennifer

2002-01-01

Developed and tested a model of students' university "brand" choice using five individual-level variables (ethnic group, age, gender, number of parents going to university, and academic ability) and one situational variable (duration of search) to explain variation in the sizes of awareness, consideration, and choice decision sets. (EV)

A conceptual model for determining career choice of CHROME alumna based on farmer's conceptual models

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Lisa Simmons

This qualitative program evaluation examines the career decision-making processes and career choices of nine, African American women who participated in the Cooperating Hampton Roads Organization for Minorities in Engineering (CHROME) and who graduated from urban, rural or suburban high schools in the year 2000. The CHROME program is a nonprofit, pre-college intervention program that encourages underrepresented minority and female students to enter science, technically related, engineering, and math (STEM) career fields. The study describes career choices and decisions made by each participant over a five-year period since high school graduation. Data was collected through an Annual Report, Post High School Questionnaires, Environmental Support Questionnaires, Career Choice Questionnaires, Senior Reports, and standardized open-ended interviews. Data was analyzed using a model based on Helen C. Farmer's Conceptual Models, John Ogbu's Caste Theory and Feminist Theory. The CHROME program, based on its stated goals and tenets, was also analyzed against study findings. Findings indicated that participants received very low levels of support from counselors and teachers to pursue STEM careers and high levels of support from parents and family, the CHROME program and financial backing. Findings of this study also indicated that the majority of CHROME alumna persisted in STEM careers. The most successful participants, in terms of undergraduate degree completion and occupational prestige, were the African American women who remained single, experienced no critical incidents, came from a middle class to upper middle class socioeconomic background, and did not have children.

Determinants of choice of delivery place: Testing rational choice theory and habitus theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Broda, Anja; Krüger, Juliane; Schinke, Stephanie; Weber, Andreas

2018-05-07

The current study uses two antipodal social science theories, the rational choice theory and the habitus theory, and applies these to describe how women choose between intraclinical (i.e., hospital-run birth clinics) and extraclinical (i.e., midwife-led birth centres or home births) delivery places. Data were collected in a cross-sectional questionnaire-based survey among 189 women. A list of 22 determinants, conceptualized to capture the two theoretical concepts, were rated on a 7-point Likert scale with 1 = unimportant to 7 = very important. The analytic method was structural equation modelling. A model was built, in which the rational choice theory and the habitus theory as latent variables predicted the choice of delivery place. With regards to the choice of delivery place, 89.3% of the women wanted an intraclinical and 10.7% an extraclinical delivery place at the time of their last child's birth. Significant differences between women with a choice of an intraclinical or extraclinical delivery place were found for 14 of the 22 determinants. In the structural equation model, rational choice theory determinants predicted a choice of intraclinical delivery and habitus theory determinants predicted a choice of extraclinical delivery. The two theories had diametrically opposed effects on the choice of delivery place. Women are more likely to decide on intraclinical delivery when arguments such as high medical standards, positive evaluations, or good advanced information are rated important. In contrast, women are more likely to decide on extraclinical delivery when factors such as family atmosphere during birth, friendliness of health care professionals, or consideration of the woman's interests are deemed important. A practical implication of our study is that intraclinical deliveries may be promoted by providing comprehensive information, data and facts on various delivery-related issues, while extraclinical deliveries may be fostered by healthcare

Predictors of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics choice options: A meta-analytic path analysis of the social-cognitive choice model by gender and race/ethnicity.

Science.gov (United States)

Lent, Robert W; Sheu, Hung-Bin; Miller, Matthew J; Cusick, Megan E; Penn, Lee T; Truong, Nancy N

2018-01-01

We tested the interest and choice portion of social-cognitive career theory (SCCT; Lent, Brown, & Hackett, 1994) in the context of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) domains. Data from 143 studies (including 196 independent samples) conducted over a 30-year period (1983 through 2013) were subjected to meta-analytic path analyses. The interest/choice model was found to fit the data well over all samples as well as within samples composed primarily of women and men and racial/ethnic minority and majority persons. The model also accounted for large portions of the variance in interests and choice goals within each path analysis. Despite the general predictive utility of SCCT across gender and racial/ethnic groups, we did find that several parameter estimates differed by group. We present both the group similarities and differences and consider their implications for future research, intervention, and theory refinement. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Modeling duration choice in space–time multi-state supernetworks for individual activity-travel scheduling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Liao, F.

2016-01-01

Multi-state supernetworks have been advanced recently for modeling individual activity-travel scheduling decisions. The main advantage is that multi-dimensional choice facets are modeled simultaneously within an integral framework, supporting systematic assessments of a large spectrum of policies

Impact of the second semester University Modeling Instruction course on students’ representation choices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daryl McPadden

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Representation use is a critical skill for learning, problem solving, and communicating in science, especially in physics where multiple representations often scaffold the understanding of a phenomenon. University Modeling Instruction, which is an active-learning, research-based introductory physics curriculum centered on students’ use of scientific models, has made representation use a primary learning goal with explicit class time devoted to introducing and coordinating representations as part of the model building process. However, because of the semester break, the second semester course, Modeling Instruction-Electricity and Magnetism (MI-EM, contains a mixture of students who are returning from the Modeling Instruction-mechanics course (to whom we refer to as “returning students” and students who are new to Modeling Instruction with the MI-EM course (to whom we refer to as “new students”. In this study, we analyze the impact of MI-EM on students’ representation choices across the introductory physics content for these different groups of students by examining both what individual representations students choose and their average number of representations on a modified card-sort survey with a variety of mechanics and EM questions. Using Wilcoxon-signed-rank tests, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney tests, Cliff’s delta effect sizes, and box plots, we compare students’ representation choices from pre- to postsemester, from new and returning students, and from mechanics and EM content. We find that there is a significant difference between returning and new students’ representation choices, which serves as a baseline comparison between Modeling Instruction and traditional lecture-based physics classes. We also find that returning students maintain a high representation use across the MI-EM semester, while new students see significant growth in their representation use regardless of content.

Alterations in choice behavior by manipulations of world model.

Science.gov (United States)

Green, C S; Benson, C; Kersten, D; Schrater, P

2010-09-14

How to compute initially unknown reward values makes up one of the key problems in reinforcement learning theory, with two basic approaches being used. Model-free algorithms rely on the accumulation of substantial amounts of experience to compute the value of actions, whereas in model-based learning, the agent seeks to learn the generative process for outcomes from which the value of actions can be predicted. Here we show that (i) "probability matching"-a consistent example of suboptimal choice behavior seen in humans-occurs in an optimal Bayesian model-based learner using a max decision rule that is initialized with ecologically plausible, but incorrect beliefs about the generative process for outcomes and (ii) human behavior can be strongly and predictably altered by the presence of cues suggestive of various generative processes, despite statistically identical outcome generation. These results suggest human decision making is rational and model based and not consistent with model-free learning.

Modeling the Choice of Telecommuting Frequency in California: An Exploratory Analysis

OpenAIRE

Mannering, Jill S.; Mokhtarian, Patricia L.

1995-01-01

This study explores the individual's choice of telecommuting frequency as a function of demographic, travel, work and attitudinal factors. To do this, multinomial logit models are estimated using data collected in a recent survey of employees from three public agencies in California. Separate models are estimated, one for data collected from the Franchise Tax Board in Sacramento, one for data from the Public Utilities Commission in San Francisco, and one for data collected from employees of t...

Multimodal route choice models of public transport passengers in the Greater Copenhagen Area

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Anderson, Marie Karen; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

2014-01-01

Understanding route choice behavior is crucial to explain travelers’ preferences and to predict traffic flows under different scenarios. A growing body of literature has concentrated on public transport users without, however, concentrating on multimodal public transport networks because......,641 public transport users in the Greater Copenhagen Area.A two-stage approach consisting of choice set generation and route choice model estimation allowed uncovering the preferences of the users of this multimodal large-scale public transport network. The results illustrate the rates of substitution...... not only of the in-vehicle times for different public transport modes, but also of the other time components (e.g., access, walking, waiting, transfer) composing the door-to-door experience of using a multimodal public transport network, differentiating by trip length and purpose, and accounting...

Choice Rules and Accumulator Networks

Science.gov (United States)

2015-01-01

This article presents a preference accumulation model that can be used to implement a number of different multi-attribute heuristic choice rules, including the lexicographic rule, the majority of confirming dimensions (tallying) rule and the equal weights rule. The proposed model differs from existing accumulators in terms of attribute representation: Leakage and competition, typically applied only to preference accumulation, are also assumed to be involved in processing attribute values. This allows the model to perform a range of sophisticated attribute-wise comparisons, including comparisons that compute relative rank. The ability of a preference accumulation model composed of leaky competitive networks to mimic symbolic models of heuristic choice suggests that these 2 approaches are not incompatible, and that a unitary cognitive model of preferential choice, based on insights from both these approaches, may be feasible. PMID:28670592

The sensitivity of ecosystem service models to choices of input data and spatial resolution

Science.gov (United States)

Kenneth J. Bagstad; Erika Cohen; Zachary H. Ancona; Steven. G. McNulty; Ge   Sun

2018-01-01

Although ecosystem service (ES) modeling has progressed rapidly in the last 10–15 years, comparative studies on data and model selection effects have become more common only recently. Such studies have drawn mixed conclusions about whether different data and model choices yield divergent results. In this study, we compared the results of different models to address...

Obligatory Effort [Hishtadlut] as an Explanatory Model: A Critique of Reproductive Choice and Control.

Science.gov (United States)

Teman, Elly; Ivry, Tsipy; Goren, Heela

2016-06-01

Studies on reproductive technologies often examine women's reproductive lives in terms of choice and control. Drawing on 48 accounts of procreative experiences of religiously devout Jewish women in Israel and the US, we examine their attitudes, understandings and experiences of pregnancy, reproductive technologies and prenatal testing. We suggest that the concept of hishtadlut-"obligatory effort"-works as an explanatory model that organizes Haredi women's reproductive careers and their negotiations of reproductive technologies. As an elastic category with negotiable and dynamic boundaries, hishtadlut gives ultra-orthodox Jewish women room for effort without the assumption of control; it allows them to exercise discretion in relation to medical issues without framing their efforts in terms of individual choice. Haredi women hold themselves responsible for making their obligatory effort and not for pregnancy outcomes. We suggest that an alternative paradigm to autonomous choice and control emerges from cosmological orders where reproductive duties constitute "obligatory choices."

An agent-based simulation model of patient choice of health care providers in accountable care organizations.

Science.gov (United States)

Alibrahim, Abdullah; Wu, Shinyi

2018-03-01

Accountable care organizations (ACO) in the United States show promise in controlling health care costs while preserving patients' choice of providers. Understanding the effects of patient choice is critical in novel payment and delivery models like ACO that depend on continuity of care and accountability. The financial, utilization, and behavioral implications associated with a patient's decision to forego local health care providers for more distant ones to access higher quality care remain unknown. To study this question, we used an agent-based simulation model of a health care market composed of providers able to form ACO serving patients and embedded it in a conditional logit decision model to examine patients capable of choosing their care providers. This simulation focuses on Medicare beneficiaries and their congestive heart failure (CHF) outcomes. We place the patient agents in an ACO delivery system model in which provider agents decide if they remain in an ACO and perform a quality improving CHF disease management intervention. Illustrative results show that allowing patients to choose their providers reduces the yearly payment per CHF patient by $320, reduces mortality rates by 0.12 percentage points and hospitalization rates by 0.44 percentage points, and marginally increases provider participation in ACO. This study demonstrates a model capable of quantifying the effects of patient choice in a theoretical ACO system and provides a potential tool for policymakers to understand implications of patient choice and assess potential policy controls.

Value of time determination for the city of Alexandria based on a disaggregate binary mode choice model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mounir Mahmoud Moghazy Abdel-Aal

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In the travel demand modeling field, mode choice is the most important decision that affects the resulted road congestion. The behavioral nature of the disaggregate models and the associated advantages of such models over aggregate models have led to their extensive use. This paper proposes a framework to determine the value of time (VoT for the city of Alexandria through calibrating a disaggregate linear-in parameter utility-based binary logit mode choice model of the city. The mode attributes (travel time and travel cost along with traveler attributes (car ownership and income were selected as the utility attributes of the basic model formulation which included 5 models. Three additional alternative utility formulations based on the transformation of the mode attributes including relative travel cost (cost divided by income and log (travel time and the combination of the two transformations together were introduced. The parameter estimation procedure was based on the likelihood maximization technique and was performed in EXCEL. Out of 20 models estimated, only 2 models are considered successful in terms of the parameters estimates correct signs and the magnitude of their significance (t-statistics value. The determination of the VoT serves also in the model validation. The best two models estimated the value of time at LE 11.30/hr and LE 14.50/hr with a relative error of +3.7% and +33.0%, respectively, of the hourly salary of LE 10.9/hr. The proposed two models prove to be sensitive to trip time and income levels as factors affecting the choice mechanism. The sensitivity analysis was performed and proved the model with higher relative error is marginally more robust. Keywords: Transportation modeling, Binary mode choice, Parameter estimation, Value of time, Likelihood maximization, Sensitivity analysis

Random regret minimization : Exploration of a new choice model for environmental and resource economics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Thiene, M.; Boeri, M.; Chorus, C.G.

2011-01-01

This paper introduces the discrete choice model-paradigm of Random Regret Minimization (RRM) to the field of environmental and resource economics. The RRM-approach has been very recently developed in the context of travel demand modelling and presents a tractable, regret-based alternative to the

The Diffusion Decision Model: Theory and Data for Two-Choice Decision Tasks

OpenAIRE

Ratcliff, Roger; McKoon, Gail

2008-01-01

The diffusion decision model allows detailed explanations of behavior in two-choice discrimination tasks. In this article, the model is reviewed to show how it translates behavioral data—accuracy, mean response times, and response time distributions—into components of cognitive processing. Three experiments are used to illustrate experimental manipulations of three components: stimulus difficulty affects the quality of information on which a decision is based; instructions emphasizing either ...

A joint model of mode and shipment size choice using the first generation of Commodity Flow Survey Public Use Microdata

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Monique Stinson

2017-12-01

Full Text Available A behavior-based supply chain and freight transportation model was developed and implemented for the Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG and Pima Association of Governments (PAG. This innovative, data-driven modeling system simulates commodity flows to, from and within Phoenix and Tucson Megaregion and is used for regional planning purposes. This paper details the logistics choice component of the system and describes the position and functioning of this component in the overall framework. The logistics choice model uses a nested logit formulation to evaluate mode choice and shipment size jointly. Modeling decisions related to integrating this component within the overall framework are discussed. This paper also describes practical insights gained from using the 2012 Commodity Flow Survey Public Use Microdata (released in 2015, which was the principal data source used to estimate the joint shipment size-mode choice nested logit model. Finally, the validation effort and related lessons learned are described.

On competition in a Stackelberg location-design model with deterministic supplier choice

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hendrix, E.M.T.

2016-01-01

We study a market situation where two firms maximize market capture by deciding on the location in the plane and investing in a competing quality against investment cost. Clients choose one of the suppliers; i.e. deterministic supplier choice. To study this situation, a game theoretic model is

Modeling the Joint Choice Decisions on Urban Shopping Destination and Travel-to-Shop Mode: A Comparative Study of Different Structures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chuan Ding

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The joint choice of shopping destination and travel-to-shop mode in downtown area is described by making use of the cross-nested logit (CNL model structure that allows for potential interalternative correlation along the both choice dimensions. Meanwhile, the traditional multinomial logit (MNL model and nested logit (NL model are also formulated, respectively. This study uses the data collected in the downtown areas of Maryland-Washington, D.C. region, for shopping trips, considering household, individual, land use, and travel related characteristics. The results of the model reveal the significant influencing factors on joint choice travel behavior between shopping destination and travel mode. A comparison of the different models shows that the proposed CNL model structure offers significant improvements in capturing unobserved correlations between alternatives over MNL model and NL model. Moreover, a Monte Carlo simulation for a group of scenarios assuming that there is an increase in parking fees in downtown area is undertaken to examine the impact of a change in car travel cost on the joint choice of shopping destination and travel mode switching. The results are expected to give a better understanding on the shopping travel behavior.

Transport Choice Modeling for the Evaluation of New Transport Policies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ander Pijoan

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Quantifying the impact of the application of sustainable transport policies is essential in order to mitigate effects of greenhouse gas emissions produced by the transport sector. One of the most common approaches used for this purpose is that of traffic modelling and simulation, which consists of emulating the operation of an entire road network. This article presents the results of fitting 8 well known data science methods for transport choice modelling, the area in which more research is needed. The models have been trained with information from Biscay province in Spain in order to match as many of its commuters as possible. Results show that the best models correctly forecast more than 51% of the trips recorded. Finally, the results have been validated with a second data set from the Silesian Voivodeship in Poland, showing that all models indeed maintain their forecasting ability.

An economic model of amniocentesis choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Fajnzylber, Eduardo; Hotz, V Joseph; Sanders, Seth G

2010-03-01

Medical practitioners typically utilize the following protocol when advising pregnant women about testing for the possibility of genetic disorders with their fetus: Pregnant women over the age of 35 should be tested for Down syndrome and other genetic disorders, while for younger women, such tests are discouraged (or not discussed) as the test can cause a pregnancy to miscarry. The logic appears compelling. The rate at which amniocentesis causes a pregnancy to miscarry is constant while the rate of genetic disorder rises substantially over a woman's reproductive years. Hence the potential benefit from testing - being able to terminate a fetus that is known to have a genetic disorder - rises with maternal age. This article argues that this logic is incomplete. While the benefits to testing do rise with age, the costs rise as well. Undergoing an amniocentesis always entails the risk of inducing a miscarriage of a healthy fetus. However, these costs are lower at early ages, because there is a higher probability of being able to replace a miscarried fetus with a healthy birth at a later age. We develop and calibrate a dynamic model of amniocentesis choice to explore this tradeoff. For parameters that characterize realistic age patterns of chromosomal abnormalities, fertility rates and miscarriages following amniocentesis, our model implies a falling, rather than rising, rate of amniocentesis as women approach menopause.

Stated Choice Experiments with Complex Ecosystem Changes: The Effect of Information Formats on Estimated Variances and Choice Parameters

OpenAIRE

Hoehn, John P.; Lupi, Frank; Kaplowitz, Michael D.

2010-01-01

Stated choice experiments about ecosystem changes involve complex information. This study examines whether the format in which ecosystem information is presented to respondents affects stated choice outcomes. Our analysis develops a utility-maximizing model to describe respondent behavior. The model shows how alternative questionnaire formats alter respondents’ use of filtering heuristics and result in differences in preference estimates. Empirical results from a large-scale stated choice e...

WHETHER OPEN INNOVATION IS A BETTER CHOICE AS A MODEL OF INNOVATION FOR ORGANIZATIONS?

OpenAIRE

KANBUR, AYSUN; A. H. MOHAMED, Ibrahim

2018-01-01

This studypresents a review of innovation models and by taking consideration andexamining these models it is aimed to understand whether the model based onopen innovation is a better choice among all the other models. Fororganizations, innovation models generally demonstrate how to work in aninnovative point of view. Companies of today’s business life are striving todevelop their capabilities and their activities to become innovative companies.Many of the organizations try to find the most su...

Building a bridge into the future: dynamic connectionist modeling as an integrative tool for research on intertemporal choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Scherbaum, Stefan; Dshemuchadse, Maja; Goschke, Thomas

2012-01-01

Temporal discounting denotes the fact that individuals prefer smaller rewards delivered sooner over larger rewards delivered later, often to a higher extent than suggested by normative economical theories. In this article, we identify three lines of research studying this phenomenon which aim (i) to describe temporal discounting mathematically, (ii) to explain observed choice behavior psychologically, and (iii) to predict the influence of specific factors on intertemporal decisions. We then opt for an approach integrating postulated mechanisms and empirical findings from these three lines of research. Our approach focuses on the dynamical properties of decision processes and is based on computational modeling. We present a dynamic connectionist model of intertemporal choice focusing on the role of self-control and time framing as two central factors determining choice behavior. Results of our simulations indicate that the two influences interact with each other, and we present experimental data supporting this prediction. We conclude that computational modeling of the decision process dynamics can advance the integration of different strands of research in intertemporal choice.

Building a bridge into the future: Dynamic connectionist modeling as an integrative tool for research on intertemporal choice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefan eScherbaum

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Temporal discounting denotes the fact that individuals prefer smaller rewards delivered sooner over larger rewards delivered later, often to a higher extent than suggested by normative economical theories. In this article, we identify three lines of research studying this phenomenon which aim (i to describe temporal discounting mathematically, (ii to explain observed choice behavior psychologically, and (iii to predict the influence of specific factors on intertemporal decisions. We then opt for an approach integrating postulated mechanisms and empirical findings from these three lines of research. Our approach focuses on the dynamical properties of decision processes and is based on computational modeling. We present a dynamic connectionist model of intertemporal choice focusing on the role of self-control and time framing as two central factors determining choice behavior. Results of our simulations indicate that the two influences interact with each other, and we present experimental data supporting this prediction. We conclude that computational modeling of the decision process dynamics can advance the integration of different strands of research in intertemporal choice.

An aggregate method to calibrate the reference point of cumulative prospect theory-based route choice model for urban transit network

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yufeng; Long, Man; Luo, Sida; Bao, Yu; Shen, Hanxia

2015-12-01

Transit route choice model is the key technology of public transit systems planning and management. Traditional route choice models are mostly based on expected utility theory which has an evident shortcoming that it cannot accurately portray travelers' subjective route choice behavior for their risk preferences are not taken into consideration. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT), a brand new theory, can be used to describe travelers' decision-making process under the condition of uncertainty of transit supply and risk preferences of multi-type travelers. The method to calibrate the reference point, a key parameter to CPT-based transit route choice model, determines the precision of the model to a great extent. In this paper, a new method is put forward to obtain the value of reference point which combines theoretical calculation and field investigation results. Comparing the proposed method with traditional method, it shows that the new method can promote the quality of CPT-based model by improving the accuracy in simulating travelers' route choice behaviors based on transit trip investigation from Nanjing City, China. The proposed method is of great significance to logical transit planning and management, and to some extent makes up the defect that obtaining the reference point is solely based on qualitative analysis.

Latent variables and route choice behavior

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Prato, Carlo Giacomo; Bekhor, Shlomo; Pronello, Cristina

2012-01-01

In the last decade, a broad array of disciplines has shown a general interest in enhancing discrete choice models by considering the incorporation of psychological factors affecting decision making. This paper provides insight into the comprehension of the determinants of route choice behavior...... and bound algorithm. A hybrid model consists of measurement equations, which relate latent variables to measurement indicators and utilities to choice indicators, and structural equations, which link travelers’ observable characteristics to latent variables and explanatory variables to utilities. Estimation...

Agent-based modelling of consumer energy choices

Science.gov (United States)

Rai, Varun; Henry, Adam Douglas

2016-06-01

Strategies to mitigate global climate change should be grounded in a rigorous understanding of energy systems, particularly the factors that drive energy demand. Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a powerful tool for representing the complexities of energy demand, such as social interactions and spatial constraints. Unlike other approaches for modelling energy demand, ABM is not limited to studying perfectly rational agents or to abstracting micro details into system-level equations. Instead, ABM provides the ability to represent behaviours of energy consumers -- such as individual households -- using a range of theories, and to examine how the interaction of heterogeneous agents at the micro-level produces macro outcomes of importance to the global climate, such as the adoption of low-carbon behaviours and technologies over space and time. We provide an overview of ABM work in the area of consumer energy choices, with a focus on identifying specific ways in which ABM can improve understanding of both fundamental scientific and applied aspects of the demand side of energy to aid the design of better policies and programmes. Future research needs for improving the practice of ABM to better understand energy demand are also discussed.

Tough and easy choices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, Søren Bøye; Lundhede, Thomas; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

2011-01-01

and the best alternative to that. We test this hypothesis using data from two independent Choice Experiments both focusing on nature values. In modelling respondents’ self-reported certainty in choice, we find evidence that the stated level of certainty increases significantly as utility difference in choice......Respondents in Stated Preference studies may be uncertain about their preferences for the good presented to them. Inspired by Wang (J Environ Econ Manag 32:219–232, 1997) we hypothesize that respondents’ stated certainty in choice increases with the utility difference between the alternative chosen...... sets increases. In addition, stated certainty increases with income. Furthermore, there is some evidence that male respondents are inherently more certain in their choices than females, and a learning effect may increase stated certainty. We find evidence of this in the first study where the good...

Choice Model and Influencing Factor Analysis of Travel Mode for Migrant Workers: Case Study in Xi’an, China

OpenAIRE

Hong Chen; Zuo-xian Gan; Yu-ting He

2015-01-01

Based on the basic theory and methods of disaggregate choice model, the influencing factors in travel mode choice for migrant workers are analyzed, according to 1366 data samples of Xi’an migrant workers. Walking, bus, subway, and taxi are taken as the alternative parts of travel modes for migrant workers, and a multinomial logit (MNL) model of travel mode for migrant workers is set up. The validity of the model is verified by the hit rate, and the hit rates of four travel modes are all great...

Strategy-proof social choice

OpenAIRE

Barberà, Salvador, 1946-

2010-01-01

This paper surveys the literature on strategy-proofness from a historical perspective. While I discuss the connections with other works on incentives in mechanism design, the main emphasis is on social choice models. This article has been prepared for the Handbook of Social Choice and Welfare, Volume 2, Edited by K. Arrow, A. Sen and K. Suzumura

A discrete-choice model with social interactions : With an application to high school teen behavior

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Soetevent, Adriaan R.; Kooreman, Peter

2007-01-01

We develop an empirical discrete-choice interaction model with a finite number of agents. We characterize its equilibrium properties-in particular the correspondence between interaction strength, number of agents, and the set of equilibria-and propose to estimate the model by means of simulation

A discrete choice model with social interactions; with an application to high school teen behavior

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Soetevent, Adriaan R.; Kooreman, Peter

2004-01-01

We develop an empirical discrete choice interaction model with a finite number of agents. We characterize its equilibrium properties - in particular the correspondence between the interaction strength, the number of agents, and the set of equilibria - and propose to estimate the model by means of

A discrete choice model with social interactions; with an application to high school teen behavior

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Soetevent, A.R.; Kooreman, P.

2007-01-01

We develop an empirical discrete-choice interaction model with a finite number of agents. We characterize its equilibrium properties - in particular the correspondence between interaction strength, number of agents, and the set of equilibria - and propose to estimate the model by means of simulation

Railway and road discrete choice model for foreign trade freight between Antioquia and the Port of Cartagena

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. D. Pineda-Jaramillo

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Most Colombian freight is transported on roads with barely acceptable conditions, and although there is a speculation about the need for a railway for freight transportation, there is not a study in Colombia showing the variables that influence the modal choice by the companies that generate freight transportation. This article presents the calculation of demand for a hypothetical railway through a discrete choice model. It begins with a qualitative research through focus group techniques to identify the variables that influence the choice of persons responsible for the transportation of large commercial companies in Antioquia (Colombia. The influential variables in the election were the cost and service frequency, and these variables were used to apply a Stated Preference (SP and Revealed Preference (RP survey, then to calibrate a Multinomial Logit Model (MNL, and to estimate the influence of each of them. We show that the probability of railway choice by the studied companies varies between 67% and 93%, depending on differences in these variables.

Honoring Choices Minnesota: preliminary data from a community-wide advance care planning model.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Kent S; Kottke, Thomas E; Schettle, Sue

2014-12-01

Advance care planning (ACP) increases the likelihood that individuals who are dying receive the care that they prefer. It also reduces depression and anxiety in family members and increases family satisfaction with the process of care. Honoring Choices Minnesota is an ACP program based on the Respecting Choices model of La Crosse, Wisconsin. The objective of this report is to describe the process, which began in 2008, of implementing Honoring Choices Minnesota in a large, diverse metropolitan area. All eight large healthcare systems in the metropolitan area agreed to participate in the project, and as of April 30, 2013, the proportion of hospitalized individuals 65 and older with advance care directives in the electronic medical record was 12.1% to 65.6%. The proportion of outpatients aged 65 and older was 11.6% to 31.7%. Organizations that had sponsored recruitment initiatives had the highest proportions of records containing healthcare directives. It was concluded that it is possible to reduce redundancy by recruiting all healthcare systems in a metropolitan area to endorse the same ACP model, although significantly increasing the proportion of individuals with a healthcare directive in their medical record requires a campaign with recruitment of organizations and individuals. © 2014 The Authors.The Journal of the American Geriatrics Society published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The American Geriatrics Society.

The influence of low-fare airlines on vacation choices of students : results of a stated portfolio choice experiment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grigolon, A.B.; Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2012-01-01

This paper reports the results of a portfolio model of vacation choices of students. The portfolio model concerns the combined choice of destination type, transport mode, duration, accommodation, and travel party for vacations. In addition to usual transport modes such as airline, train, bus and

Worldwide Diversity in Funded Pension Plans : Four Role Models on Choice and Participation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Garcia Huitron, Manuel; Ponds, Eduard

2015-01-01

This paper provides an in-depth comparison of funded pension savings plans around the world. The large variety in plan designs is a reflection of historical, cultural and institutional diversity. We postulate a new classification of four role models of funded pension plans, primarily based on choice

Specialty choice preference of medical students according to personality traits by Five-Factor Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwon, Oh Young; Park, So Youn

2016-03-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between personality traits, using the Five-Factor Model, and characteristics and motivational factors affecting specialty choice in Korean medical students. A questionnaire survey of Year 4 medical students (n=110) in July 2015 was administered. We evaluated the personality traits of Extraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, Neuroticism, and Openness by using the Korean version of Big Five Inventory. Questions about general characteristics, medical specialties most preferred as a career, motivational factors in determining specialty choice were included. Data between five personality traits and general characteristics and motivational factors affecting specialty choice were analyzed using Student t-test, Mann-Whitney test and analysis of variance. Of the 110 eligible medical students, 105 (95.4% response rate) completed the questionnaire. More Agreeableness students preferred clinical medicine to basic medicine (p=0.010) and more Openness students preferred medical departments to others (p=0.031). Personal interest was the significant motivational factors in more Openness students (p=0.003) and Conscientiousness students (p=0.003). Medical students with more Agreeableness were more likely to prefer clinical medicine and those with more Openness preferred medical departments. Personal interest was a significant influential factor determining specialty choice in more Openness and Conscientiousness students. These findings may be helpful to medical educators or career counselors in the specialty choice process.

Specialty choice preference of medical students according to personality traits by Five-Factor Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oh Young Kwon

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between personality traits, using the Five-Factor Model, and characteristics and motivational factors affecting specialty choice in Korean medical students. Methods: A questionnaire survey of Year 4 medical students (n=110 in July 2015 was administered. We evaluated the personality traits of Extraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, Neuroticism, and Openness by using the Korean version of Big Five Inventory. Questions about general characteristics, medical specialties most preferred as a career, motivational factors in determining specialty choice were included. Data between five personality traits and general characteristics and motivational factors affecting specialty choice were analyzed using Student t-test, Mann-Whitney test and analysis of variance. Results: Of the 110 eligible medical students, 105 (95.4% response rate completed the questionnaire. More Agreeableness students preferred clinical medicine to basic medicine (p=0.010 and more Openness students preferred medical departments to others (p=0.031. Personal interest was the significant motivational factors in more Openness students (p=0.003 and Conscientiousness students (p=0.003. Conclusion: Medical students with more Agreeableness were more likely to prefer clinical medicine and those with more Openness preferred medical departments. Personal interest was a significant influential factor determining specialty choice in more Openness and Conscientiousness students. These findings may be helpful to medical educators or career counselors in the specialty choice process.

Improving the representation of modal choice into bottom-up optimization energy system models - The MoCho-TIMES model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tattini, Jacopo; Ramea, Kalai; Gargiulo, Maurizio

2018-01-01

and mathematical expressions required to develop the approach. This study develops MoCho-TIMES in the standalone transportation sector of TIMES-DK, the integrated energy system model for Denmark. The model is tested for the Business as Usual scenario and for four alternative scenarios that imply diverse......This study presents MoCho-TIMES, an original methodology for incorporating modal choice into energy-economy-environment-engineering (E4) system models. MoCho-TIMES addresses the scarce ability of E4 models to realistically depict behaviour in transport and allows for modal shift towards transit...

Human Nonindependent Mate Choice: Is Model Female Attractiveness Everything?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonios Vakirtzis

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Following two decades of research on non-human animals, there has recently been increased interest in human nonindependent mate choice, namely the ways in which choosing women incorporate information about a man's past or present romantic partners (‘model females’ into their own assessment of the male. Experimental studies using static facial images have generally found that men receive higher desirability ratings from female raters when presented with attractive (compared to unattractive model females. This phenomenon has a straightforward evolutionary explanation: the fact that female mate value is more dependent on physical attractiveness compared to male mate value. Furthermore, due to assortative mating for attractiveness, men who are paired with attractive women are more likely to be of high mate value themselves. Here, we also examine the possible relevance of model female cues other than attractiveness (personality and behavioral traits by presenting video recordings of model females to a set of female raters. The results confirm that the model female's attractiveness is the primary cue. Contrary to some earlier findings in the human and nonhuman literature, we found no evidence that female raters prefer partners of slightly older model females. We conclude by suggesting some promising variations on the present experimental design.

Local structural properties and attribute characteristisc in 2-mode networks: p* models to map choices of theater events

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Agneessens, F.; Roose, H.

2008-01-01

Choices of plays made by theatergoers can be considered as a 2-mode or affiliation network. In this article we illustrate how p* models (an exponential family of distributions for random graphs) can be used to uncover patterns of choices. Based on audience research in three theater institutions in

Age-based differences in strategy use in choice tasks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Darrell A. Worthy

2012-01-01

Full Text Available We incorporated behavioral and computational modeling techniques to examine age-based differences in strategy use in two four-choice decision-making tasks. Healthy older (aged 60-82 years and younger adults (aged 18-23 years performed one of two decision-making tasks that differed in the degree to which rewards for each option depended on the choices made on previous trials. In the choice-independent task rewards for each choice were not affected by the sequence of previous choices that had been made. In contrast, in the choice-dependent task rewards for each option were based on how often each option had been chosen in the past. We compared the fits of a model that assumes the use of a win-stay-lose-shift (WSLS heuristic to make decisions, to the fits of a reinforcement-learning (RL model that compared expected reward values for each option to make decisions. Younger adults were best fit by the RL model, while older adults showed significantly more evidence of being best fit by the WSLS heuristic model. This led older adults to perform worse than younger adults in the choice-independent task, but better in the choice-dependent task. These results coincide with previous work in our labs that also found better performance for older adults in choice-dependent tasks (Worthy et al., 2011, and the present results suggest that qualitative age-based differences in the strategies used in choice tasks may underlie older adults’ advantage in choice-dependent tasks. We discuss possible factors behind these differences such as neurobiological changes associated with aging, and increased use of heuristics by older adults.

Optimization of a centrifugal compressor impeller using CFD: the choice of simulation model parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Neverov, V. V.; Kozhukhov, Y. V.; Yablokov, A. M.; Lebedev, A. A.

2017-08-01

Nowadays the optimization using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) plays an important role in the design process of turbomachines. However, for the successful and productive optimization it is necessary to define a simulation model correctly and rationally. The article deals with the choice of a grid and computational domain parameters for optimization of centrifugal compressor impellers using computational fluid dynamics. Searching and applying optimal parameters of the grid model, the computational domain and solver settings allows engineers to carry out a high-accuracy modelling and to use computational capability effectively. The presented research was conducted using Numeca Fine/Turbo package with Spalart-Allmaras and Shear Stress Transport turbulence models. Two radial impellers was investigated: the high-pressure at ψT=0.71 and the low-pressure at ψT=0.43. The following parameters of the computational model were considered: the location of inlet and outlet boundaries, type of mesh topology, size of mesh and mesh parameter y+. Results of the investigation demonstrate that the choice of optimal parameters leads to the significant reduction of the computational time. Optimal parameters in comparison with non-optimal but visually similar parameters can reduce the calculation time up to 4 times. Besides, it is established that some parameters have a major impact on the result of modelling.

Effect of model choice and sample size on statistical tolerance limits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duran, B.S.; Campbell, K.

1980-03-01

Statistical tolerance limits are estimates of large (or small) quantiles of a distribution, quantities which are very sensitive to the shape of the tail of the distribution. The exact nature of this tail behavior cannot be ascertained brom small samples, so statistical tolerance limits are frequently computed using a statistical model chosen on the basis of theoretical considerations or prior experience with similar populations. This report illustrates the effects of such choices on the computations

Momentous Choices: Testing nonstandard decision models in health and housing markets

OpenAIRE

Filko, Martin

2013-01-01

markdownabstract__Abstract__ During more than half a century, several strands of research contributed to the development of decision theory. The standard normative model for choice under uncertainty – expected utility – was given a foundation by von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944) and Savage (1954). It advised – and expected – reasonable actors to evaluate the consequences of their actions by the weighted sum of their utility, using probabilities of these consequences as weights. Utilities wer...

Health Care Facility Choice and User Fee Abolition: Regression Discontinuity in a Multinomial Choice Setting

OpenAIRE

Steven F. Koch; Jeffrey S. Racine

2013-01-01

We apply parametric and nonparametric regression discontinuity methodology within a multinomial choice setting to examine the impact of public health care user fee abolition on health facility choice using data from South Africa. The nonparametric model is found to outperform the parametric model both in- and out-of-sample, while also delivering more plausible estimates of the impact of user fee abolition (i.e. the 'treatment effect'). In the parametric framework, treatment effects were relat...

The choices, choosing model of quality of life: linkages to a science base.

Science.gov (United States)

Gurland, Barry J; Gurland, Roni V

2009-01-01

A previous paper began with a critical review of current models and measures of quality of life and then proposed criteria for judging the relative merits of alternative models: preference was given to finding a model with explicit mechanisms, linkages to a science base, a means of identifying deficits amenable to rational restorative interventions, and with embedded values of the whole person. A conjectured model, based on the processes of accessing choices and choosing among them, matched the proposed criteria. The choices and choosing (c-c) process is an evolved adaptive mechanism dedicated to the pursuit of quality of life, driven by specific biological and psychological systems, and influenced also by social and environmental forces. In this paper the c-c model is examined for its potential to strengthen the science base for the field of quality of life and thus to unify many approaches to concept and measurement. A third paper in this set will lay out a guide to applying the c-c model in evaluating impairments of quality of life and will tie this evaluation to corresponding interventions aimed at relieving restrictions or distortions of the c-c process; thus helping people to preserve and improve their quality of life. The fourth paper will demonstrate empirical analyses of the relationship between health imposed restrictions of options for living and conventional indicators of diminished quality of life. (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Joint modeling of constrained path enumeration and path choice behavior: a semi-compensatory approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

2010-01-01

A behavioural and a modelling framework are proposed for representing route choice from a path set that satisfies travellers’ spatiotemporal constraints. Within the proposed framework, travellers’ master sets are constructed by path generation, consideration sets are delimited according to spatio...

Meal patterns, satiety, and food choice in a rat model of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Huiyuan; Shin, Andrew C; Lenard, Natalie R; Townsend, R Leigh; Patterson, Laurel M; Sigalet, David L; Berthoud, Hans-Rudolf

2009-11-01

Gastric bypass surgery efficiently and lastingly reduces excess body weight and reverses type 2 diabetes in obese patients. Although increased energy expenditure may also play a role, decreased energy intake is thought to be the main reason for weight loss, but the mechanisms involved are poorly understood. Therefore, the aim of this study was to characterize the changes in ingestive behavior in a rat model of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery (RYGB). Obese (24% body fat compared with 18% in chow-fed controls), male Sprague-Dawley rats maintained for 15 wk before and 4 mo after RYGB or sham-surgery on a two-choice low-fat/high-fat diet, were subjected to a series of tests assessing energy intake, meal patterning, and food choice. Although sham-operated rats gained an additional 100 g body wt during the postoperative period, RYGB rats lost approximately 100 g. Intake of a nutritionally complete and palatable liquid diet (Ensure) was significantly reduced by approximately 50% during the first 2 wk after RYGB compared with sham surgery. Decreased intake was the result of greatly reduced meal size with only partial compensation by meal frequency, and a corresponding increase in the satiety ratio. Similar results were obtained with solid food (regular or high-fat chow) 6 wk after surgery. In 12- to 24-h two-choice liquid or solid diet paradigms with nutritionally complete low- and high-fat diets, RYGB rats preferred the low-fat choice (solid) or showed decreased acceptance for the high-fat choice (liquid), whereas sham-operated rats preferred the high-fat choices. A separate group of rats offered chow only before surgery completely avoided the solid high-fat diet in a choice paradigm. The results confirm anecdotal reports of "nibbling" behavior and fat avoidance in RYGB patients and provide a basis for more mechanistic studies in this rat model.

Effects of chronic administration of drugs of abuse on impulsive choice (delay discounting) in animal models.

Science.gov (United States)

Setlow, Barry; Mendez, Ian A; Mitchell, Marci R; Simon, Nicholas W

2009-09-01

Drug-addicted individuals show high levels of impulsive choice, characterized by preference for small immediate over larger but delayed rewards. Although the causal relationship between chronic drug use and elevated impulsive choice in humans has been unclear, a small but growing body of literature over the past decade has shown that chronic drug administration in animal models can cause increases in impulsive choice, suggesting that a similar causal relationship may exist in human drug users. This article reviews this literature, with a particular focus on the effects of chronic cocaine administration, which have been most thoroughly characterized. The potential mechanisms of these effects are described in terms of drug-induced neural alterations in ventral striatal and prefrontal cortical brain systems. Some implications of this research for pharmacological treatment of drug-induced increases in impulsive choice are discussed, along with suggestions for future research in this area.

Modeling Impulse and Non-Impulse Store Choice Processes in a Multi-Agent Simulation of Pedestrian Activity in Shopping Environments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dijkstra, J.; Timmermans, H.J.P.; Vries, de B.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2009-01-01

This chapter presents a multi-agent approach for modeling impulse and non-impulse store choice processes of pedestrian activity in shopping environments. The pedestrian simulation context will be discussed as well as the behavioral principles underlying the store choice processes. For these

Sensitivity of simulated regional Arctic climate to the choice of coupled model domain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dmitry V. Sein

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The climate over the Arctic has undergone changes in recent decades. In order to evaluate the coupled response of the Arctic system to external and internal forcing, our study focuses on the estimation of regional climate variability and its dependence on large-scale atmospheric and regional ocean circulations. A global ocean–sea ice model with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model and global terrestrial hydrology model. This way of coupling divides the global ocean model setup into two different domains: one coupled, where the ocean and the atmosphere are interacting, and one uncoupled, where the ocean model is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing and runs in a so-called stand-alone mode. Therefore, selecting a specific area for the regional atmosphere implies that the ocean–atmosphere system can develop ‘freely’ in that area, whereas for the rest of the global ocean, the circulation is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing without any feedbacks. Five different coupled setups are chosen for ensemble simulations. The choice of the coupled domains was done to estimate the influences of the Subtropical Atlantic, Eurasian and North Pacific regions on northern North Atlantic and Arctic climate. Our simulations show that the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere model is sensitive to the choice of the modelled area. The different model configurations reproduce differently both the mean climate and its variability. Only two out of five model setups were able to reproduce the Arctic climate as observed under recent climate conditions (ERA-40 Reanalysis. Evidence is found that the main source of uncertainty for Arctic climate variability and its predictability is the North Pacific. The prescription of North Pacific conditions in the regional model leads to significant correlation with observations, even if the whole North Atlantic is within the coupled model domain. However, the inclusion of the

Choice Shift in Opinion Network Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Gabbay, Michael

Choice shift is a phenomenon associated with small group dynamics whereby group discussion causes group members to shift their opinions in a more extreme direction so that the mean post-discussion opinion exceeds the mean pre-discussion opinion. Also known as group polarization, choice shift is a robust experimental phenomenon and has been well-studied within social psychology. In opinion network models, shifts toward extremism are typically produced by the presence of stubborn agents at the extremes of the opinion axis, whose opinions are much more resistant to change than moderate agents. However, we present a model in which choice shift can arise without the assumption of stubborn agents; the model evolves member opinions and uncertainties using coupled nonlinear differential equations. In addition, we briefly describe the results of a recent experiment conducted involving online group discussion concerning the outcome of National Football League games are described. The model predictions concerning the effects of network structure, disagreement level, and team choice (favorite or underdog) are in accord with the experimental results. This research was funded by the Office of Naval Research and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency.

Neural Activity Reveals Preferences Without Choices

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Alec; Bernheim, B. Douglas; Camerer, Colin

2014-01-01

We investigate the feasibility of inferring the choices people would make (if given the opportunity) based on their neural responses to the pertinent prospects when they are not engaged in actual decision making. The ability to make such inferences is of potential value when choice data are unavailable, or limited in ways that render standard methods of estimating choice mappings problematic. We formulate prediction models relating choices to “non-choice” neural responses and use them to predict out-of-sample choices for new items and for new groups of individuals. The predictions are sufficiently accurate to establish the feasibility of our approach. PMID:25729468

Forced-Choice Assessment of Work-Related Maladaptive Personality Traits: Preliminary Evidence From an Application of Thurstonian Item Response Modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Guenole, Nigel; Brown, Anna A; Cooper, Andrew J

2018-06-01

This article describes an investigation of whether Thurstonian item response modeling is a viable method for assessment of maladaptive traits. Forced-choice responses from 420 working adults to a broad-range personality inventory assessing six maladaptive traits were considered. The Thurstonian item response model's fit to the forced-choice data was adequate, while the fit of a counterpart item response model to responses to the same items but arranged in a single-stimulus design was poor. Monotrait heteromethod correlations indicated corresponding traits in the two formats overlapped substantially, although they did not measure equivalent constructs. A better goodness of fit and higher factor loadings for the Thurstonian item response model, coupled with a clearer conceptual alignment to the theoretical trait definitions, suggested that the single-stimulus item responses were influenced by biases that the independent clusters measurement model did not account for. Researchers may wish to consider forced-choice designs and appropriate item response modeling techniques such as Thurstonian item response modeling for personality questionnaire applications in industrial psychology, especially when assessing maladaptive traits. We recommend further investigation of this approach in actual selection situations and with different assessment instruments.

DYNAMIC MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF URBAN SPATIAL PATTERN (RESIDENTIAL CHOICE OF LOCATION: MOBILITY VS EXTERNALITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rahma Fitriani

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Household’s residential choice of location determines urban spatial pattern (e.g sprawl. The static model which assumes that the choice has been affected by distance to the CBD and location specific externality, fails to capture the evoution of the pattern over time. Therefore this study proposes a dynamic version of the model. It analyses the effects of externalities on the optimal solution of development decision as function of time. It also derives the effect of mobility and externality on the rate of change of development pattern through time. When the increasing rate of utility is not as significant as the increasing rate of income, the externalities will delay the change of urban spatial pattern over time. If the mobility costs increase by large amount relative to the increase of income and inflation rate, then the mobility effect dominates the effects of externalities in delaying the urban expansion.

Testing Ecological Theories of Offender Spatial Decision Making Using a Discrete Choice Model

Science.gov (United States)

Summers, Lucia

2015-01-01

Research demonstrates that crime is spatially concentrated. However, most research relies on information about where crimes occur, without reference to where offenders reside. This study examines how the characteristics of neighborhoods and their proximity to offender home locations affect offender spatial decision making. Using a discrete choice model and data for detected incidents of theft from vehicles (TFV), we test predictions from two theoretical perspectives—crime pattern and social disorganization theories. We demonstrate that offenders favor areas that are low in social cohesion and closer to their home, or other age-related activity nodes. For adult offenders, choices also appear to be influenced by how accessible a neighborhood is via the street network. The implications for criminological theory and crime prevention are discussed. PMID:25866412

Testing Ecological Theories of Offender Spatial Decision Making Using a Discrete Choice Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Shane D; Summers, Lucia

2015-04-01

Research demonstrates that crime is spatially concentrated. However, most research relies on information about where crimes occur, without reference to where offenders reside. This study examines how the characteristics of neighborhoods and their proximity to offender home locations affect offender spatial decision making. Using a discrete choice model and data for detected incidents of theft from vehicles (TFV) , we test predictions from two theoretical perspectives-crime pattern and social disorganization theories. We demonstrate that offenders favor areas that are low in social cohesion and closer to their home, or other age-related activity nodes. For adult offenders, choices also appear to be influenced by how accessible a neighborhood is via the street network. The implications for criminological theory and crime prevention are discussed.

College Students' Choice Modeling of Taking On-Line International Business Courses

Science.gov (United States)

Yeh, Robert S.

2006-01-01

To understand students' choice behavior of taking on-line international business courses, a survey study is conducted to collect information regarding students' actual choices of taking on-line courses and potential factors that may have impacts on students' choices of online learning. Potential factors such as enrollment status, demographic…

Evoked emotions predict food choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Dalenberg, Jelle R; Gutjar, Swetlana; Ter Horst, Gert J; de Graaf, Kees; Renken, Remco J; Jager, Gerry

2014-01-01

In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Therefore, the focus within recent studies shifted towards using emotion-profiling methods that successfully can discriminate between products that are equally liked. However, it is unclear how well scores from emotion-profiling methods predict actual food choice and/or consumption. To test this, we proposed to decompose emotion scores into valence and arousal scores using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and apply Multinomial Logit Models (MLM) to estimate food choice using liking, valence, and arousal as possible predictors. For this analysis, we used an existing data set comprised of liking and food-evoked emotions scores from 123 participants, who rated 7 unlabeled breakfast drinks. Liking scores were measured using a 100-mm visual analogue scale, while food-evoked emotions were measured using 2 existing emotion-profiling methods: a verbal and a non-verbal method (EsSense Profile and PrEmo, respectively). After 7 days, participants were asked to choose 1 breakfast drink from the experiment to consume during breakfast in a simulated restaurant environment. Cross validation showed that we were able to correctly predict individualized food choice (1 out of 7 products) for over 50% of the participants. This number increased to nearly 80% when looking at the top 2 candidates. Model comparisons showed that evoked emotions better predict food choice than perceived liking alone. However, the strongest predictive strength was achieved by the combination of evoked emotions and liking. Furthermore we showed that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores more accurately predict food choice than verbal food-evoked emotions scores.

Money Earlier or Later? Simple Heuristics Explain Intertemporal Choices Better than Delay Discounting1

Science.gov (United States)

Marzilli Ericson, Keith M.; White, John Myles; Laibson, David; Cohen, Jonathan D.

2015-01-01

Heuristic models have been proposed for many domains of choice. We compare heuristic models of intertemporal choice, which can account for many of the known intertemporal choice anomalies, to discounting models. We conduct an out-of-sample, cross-validated comparison of intertemporal choice models. Heuristic models outperform traditional utility discounting models, including models of exponential and hyperbolic discounting. The best performing models predict choices by using a weighted average of absolute differences and relative (percentage) differences of the attributes of the goods in a choice set. We conclude that heuristic models explain time-money tradeoff choices in experiments better than utility discounting models. PMID:25911124

The effects of nutrition labeling on consumer food choice: a psychological experiment and computational model.

Science.gov (United States)

Helfer, Peter; Shultz, Thomas R

2014-12-01

The widespread availability of calorie-dense food is believed to be a contributing cause of an epidemic of obesity and associated diseases throughout the world. One possible countermeasure is to empower consumers to make healthier food choices with useful nutrition labeling. An important part of this endeavor is to determine the usability of existing and proposed labeling schemes. Here, we report an experiment on how four different labeling schemes affect the speed and nutritional value of food choices. We then apply decision field theory, a leading computational model of human decision making, to simulate the experimental results. The psychology experiment shows that quantitative, single-attribute labeling schemes have greater usability than multiattribute and binary ones, and that they remain effective under moderate time pressure. The computational model simulates these psychological results and provides explanatory insights into them. This work shows how experimental psychology and computational modeling can contribute to the evaluation and improvement of nutrition-labeling schemes. © 2014 New York Academy of Sciences.

A hybrid discrete choice model to assess the effect of awareness and attitude towards environmentally friendly travel modes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sottile, Eleonora; Meloni, Italo; Cherchi, Elisabetta

2015-01-01

The need to reduce private vehicle use has led to the development of soft measures aimed at re-educating car users through information processes that raise their awareness regarding the benefits of environmentally friendly modes, encouraging them to voluntarily change their mode choice behaviour......&R) instead of their car, we estimated a hybrid mode choice model....

Optimized bioregenerative space diet selection with crew choice

Science.gov (United States)

Vicens, Carrie; Wang, Carolyn; Olabi, Ammar; Jackson, Peter; Hunter, Jean

2003-01-01

Previous studies on optimization of crew diets have not accounted for choice. A diet selection model with crew choice was developed. Scenario analyses were conducted to assess the feasibility and cost of certain crew preferences, such as preferences for numerous-desserts, high-salt, and high-acceptability foods. For comparison purposes, a no-choice and a random-choice scenario were considered. The model was found to be feasible in terms of food variety and overall costs. The numerous-desserts, high-acceptability, and random-choice scenarios all resulted in feasible solutions costing between 13.2 and 17.3 kg ESM/person-day. Only the high-sodium scenario yielded an infeasible solution. This occurred when the foods highest in salt content were selected for the crew-choice portion of the diet. This infeasibility can be avoided by limiting the total sodium content in the crew-choice portion of the diet. Cost savings were found by reducing food variety in scenarios where the preference bias strongly affected nutritional content.

Impact of modeling Choices on Inventory and In-Cask Criticality Calculations for Forsmark 3 BWR Spent Fuel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinez-Gonzalez, Jesus S.; Ade, Brian J.; Bowman, Stephen M.; Gauld, Ian C.; Ilas, Germina; Marshall, William BJ J.

2015-01-01

Simulation of boiling water reactor (BWR) fuel depletion poses a challenge for nuclide inventory validation and nuclear criticality safety analyses. This challenge is due to the complex operating conditions and assembly design heterogeneities that characterize these nuclear systems. Fuel depletion simulations and in-cask criticality calculations are affected by (1) completeness of design information, (2) variability of operating conditions needed for modeling purposes, and (3) possible modeling choices. These effects must be identified, quantified, and ranked according to their significance. This paper presents an investigation of BWR fuel depletion using a complete set of actual design specifications and detailed operational data available for five operating cycles of the Swedish BWR Forsmark 3 reactor. The data includes detailed axial profiles of power, burnup, and void fraction in a very fine temporal mesh for a GE14 (10x10) fuel assembly. The specifications of this case can be used to assess the impacts of different modeling choices on inventory prediction and in-cask criticality, specifically regarding the key parameters that drive inventory and reactivity throughout fuel burnup. This study focused on the effects of the fidelity with which power history and void fraction distributions are modeled. The corresponding sensitivity of the reactivity in storage configurations is assessed, and the impacts of modeling choices on decay heat and inventory are addressed.

Location choice in the context of multi-day activity-travel patterns : model development and empirical results

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Arentze, T.A.; Ettema, D.F.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2013-01-01

Multi-day activity-based models of travel demand are receiving increasing interest recently as successors of existing single-day activity-based models. In this article, we argue that predicting activity location choice-sets can no longer be ignored when multi-day time frames are adopted in these

Electricity investments and nuclear development: investment choice modeling based on value creation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tehrani, B.S.; Bocquer, J.C.; Tomoda, T.

2014-01-01

While nuclear power may experience a technological breakthrough in Europe with Generation IV nuclear reactors within 2040, several events could question this possibility such as the Fukushima accident, the climate issues and the electricity market liberalization. This paper aims at analyzing investment choices in power generation capacities in the European scope, using simple DSM-inspired approaches. The power company and interacting stake holders in the investment choice process are considered as a complex system, and dependencies between investment drivers associated with each stake holder are studied. Focusing on the value for the power company, the compatibility of each power company with each of considered technologies is assessed through a Domain Mapping Matrix, including not only technical drivers, but also associated policy and market drivers. Technology preferences are modeled for main European companies in a set of scenarios, these preferences being then used to explore trends in generation mix. (authors)

PRO-ECOLOGICAL ACTIONS AND CONSUMER CHOICES IN THE MODEL OF RESPONSIBLE BUSINESS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katarzyna Olejniczak

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The current farming conditions cause that recent social and environmental aspects of management play an important role for the functioning of modern enterprises. This results from the fact that on the one hand the activities of modern enterprises are determined by the surroundings’ increasing complexity, on the other hand the growing demands of various groups of stakeholders build company’s success based not only on a quest to maximize their profi t, but primarily on taking the responsibility for the consequences of their actions. Additionally, the growing awareness of consumers makes more and more enterprises implement the concept of corporate social responsibility (CSR in their actions. For this reason, it is important to discuss about the actions and choices of consumers in the model of CSR. The aim of this article is to present the results of the research on customers‘s environmentally conscious activities and choices.

A Common Mechanism Underlying Food Choice and Social Decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Krajbich, Ian; Hare, Todd; Bartling, Björn; Morishima, Yosuke; Fehr, Ernst

2015-01-01

People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others’ benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making. PMID:26460812

A Common Mechanism Underlying Food Choice and Social Decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Krajbich, Ian; Hare, Todd; Bartling, Björn; Morishima, Yosuke; Fehr, Ernst

2015-10-01

People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others' benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making.

Modeling a Multinomial Logit Model of Intercity Travel Mode Choice Behavior for All Trips in Libya

OpenAIRE

Manssour A. Abdulsalam Bin Miskeen; Ahmed Mohamed Alhodairi; Riza Atiq Abdullah Bin O. K. Rahmat

2013-01-01

In the planning point of view, it is essential to have mode choice, due to the massive amount of incurred in transportation systems. The intercity travellers in Libya have distinct features, as against travellers from other countries, which includes cultural and socioeconomic factors. Consequently, the goal of this study is to recognize the behavior of intercity travel using disaggregate models, for projecting the demand of nation-level intercity travel in Libya. Multinom...

Occupational choice and values.

OpenAIRE

Kantas, A.

1985-01-01

It is suggested that psychological and sociological approaches to occupational choice can be linked together by employment of three concepts: work salience, values and motivation. Employing Vroom's (1964) cognitive model of motivation occupational choice was examined as a value attainment process. The subjects were 225 male pupils of two different school complexes in Athens, Greece. They were asked to respond to a work salience questionnaire and to rank order a set of ...

What counts as a choice? U.S. Americans are more likely than Indians to construe actions as choices.

Science.gov (United States)

Savani, Krishna; Markus, Hazel Rose; Naidu, N V R; Kumar, Satishchandra; Berlia, Neha

2010-03-01

People everywhere select among multiple alternatives, but are they always making choices? In five studies, we found that people in U.S. American contexts, where the disjoint model of agency is prevalent, are more likely than those in Indian contexts to construe their own and other individuals' behaviors as choices, to construe ongoing behaviors and behaviors recalled from memory as choices, to construe naturally occurring and experimentally controlled behaviors as choices, to construe mundane and important actions as choices, and to construe personal and interpersonal actions as choices. Indians showed a greater tendency to construe actions as choices when these actions involved responding to other people than when they did not. These findings show that whether people construe actions as choices is significantly shaped by sociocultural systems of meanings and practices. Together, they suggest that the positive consequences associated with maximizing the availability of personal choice may not be universal and instead may be limited to North American contexts.

Analyzing multiday route choice behavior of commuters using GPS data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenyun Tang

2016-02-01

Full Text Available In this study, accurate global position system and geographic information system data were employed to reveal multiday routes people used and to study multiday route choice behavior for the same origin–destination trips, from home to work. A new way of thinking about route choice modeling is provided in this study. Travelers are classified into three kinds based on the deviation between actual routes and the shortest travel time paths. Based on the classification, a two-stage route choice process is proposed, in which the first step is to classify the travelers and the second one is to model route choice behavior. After analyzing the characteristics of different types of travelers, an artificial neural network was adopted to classify travelers and model route choice behavior. An empirical study using global position systems data collected in Minneapolis–St Paul metropolitan area was carried out. It finds that most travelers follow the same route during commute trips on successive days. And different types of travelers have a significant difference in route choice property. The modeling results indicate that neural network framework can classify travelers and model route choice well.

A model of the impact of reimbursement schemes on health plan choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Keeler, E B; Carter, G; Newhouse, J P

1998-06-01

Flat capitation (uniform prospective payments) makes enrolling healthy enrollees profitable to health plans. Plans with relatively generous benefits may attract the sick and fail through a premium spiral. We simulate a model of idealized managed competition to explore the effect on market performance of alternatives to flat capitation such as severity-adjusted capitation and reduced supply-side cost-sharing. In our model flat capitation causes severe market problems. Severity adjustment and to a lesser extent reduced supply-side cost-sharing improve market performance, but outcomes are efficient only in cases in which people bear the marginal costs of their choices.

Bayesian Poisson hierarchical models for crash data analysis: Investigating the impact of model choice on site-specific predictions.

Science.gov (United States)

Khazraee, S Hadi; Johnson, Valen; Lord, Dominique

2018-08-01

The Poisson-gamma (PG) and Poisson-lognormal (PLN) regression models are among the most popular means for motor vehicle crash data analysis. Both models belong to the Poisson-hierarchical family of models. While numerous studies have compared the overall performance of alternative Bayesian Poisson-hierarchical models, little research has addressed the impact of model choice on the expected crash frequency prediction at individual sites. This paper sought to examine whether there are any trends among candidate models predictions e.g., that an alternative model's prediction for sites with certain conditions tends to be higher (or lower) than that from another model. In addition to the PG and PLN models, this research formulated a new member of the Poisson-hierarchical family of models: the Poisson-inverse gamma (PIGam). Three field datasets (from Texas, Michigan and Indiana) covering a wide range of over-dispersion characteristics were selected for analysis. This study demonstrated that the model choice can be critical when the calibrated models are used for prediction at new sites, especially when the data are highly over-dispersed. For all three datasets, the PIGam model would predict higher expected crash frequencies than would the PLN and PG models, in order, indicating a clear link between the models predictions and the shape of their mixing distributions (i.e., gamma, lognormal, and inverse gamma, respectively). The thicker tail of the PIGam and PLN models (in order) may provide an advantage when the data are highly over-dispersed. The analysis results also illustrated a major deficiency of the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) in comparing the goodness-of-fit of hierarchical models; models with drastically different set of coefficients (and thus predictions for new sites) may yield similar DIC values, because the DIC only accounts for the parameters in the lowest (observation) level of the hierarchy and ignores the higher levels (regression coefficients

Choice certainty in Discrete Choice Experiments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Uggeldahl, Kennet Christian; Jacobsen, Catrine; Lundhede, Thomas

2016-01-01

In this study, we conduct a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) using eye tracking technology to investigate if eye movements during the completion of choice sets reveal information about respondents’ choice certainty. We hypothesise that the number of times that respondents shift their visual...

Calibration of a joint time assignment and mode choice model system

OpenAIRE

Greeven, Paulina; Jara-Diaz, Sergio R.; Munizaga, Marcela A.; Axhausen, Kay W.

2005-01-01

In this paper we report the results of applying a new microeconomic framework to model time assignment to activities, goods consumption and mode choice jointly (Jara-Díaz and Guevara, 2003; Jara-Díaz and Guerra, 2003) that identifies the links between these decisions and permits the calculation of all the components of the subjective value of time defined in the literature: the value of time as a resource, value of assigning time to a specific activity and the value of saving time in a specif...

A Common Mechanism Underlying Food Choice and Social Decisions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ian Krajbich

2015-10-01

Full Text Available People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others' benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making.

Paradoxical choice in rats: Subjective valuation and mechanism of choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Ojeda, Andrés; Murphy, Robin A; Kacelnik, Alex

2018-07-01

Decision-makers benefit from information only when they can use it to guide behavior. However, recent experiments found that pigeons and starlings value information that they cannot use. Here we show that this paradox is also present in rats, and explore the underlying decision process. Subjects chose between two options that delivered food probabilistically after a fixed delay. In one option ("info"), outcomes (food/no-food) were signaled immediately after choice, whereas in the alternative ("non-info") the outcome was uncertain until the delay lapsed. Rats sacrificed up to 20% potential rewards by preferring the info option, but reversed preference when the cost was 60%. This reversal contrasts with the results found with pigeons and starlings and may reflect species' differences worth of further investigation. Results are consistent with predictions of the Sequential Choice Model (SCM), that proposes that choices are driven by the mechanisms that control action in sequential encounters. As expected from the SCM, latencies to respond in single-option trials predicted preferences in choice trials, and latencies in choice trials were the same or shorter than in single-option trials. We argue that the congruence of results in distant vertebrates probably reflects evolved adaptations to shared fundamental challenges in nature, and that the apparently paradoxical overvaluing of information is not sub-optimal as has been claimed, even though its functional significance is not yet understood. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The application of the random regret minimization model to drivers’ choice of crash avoidance maneuvers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

This study explores the plausibility of regret minimization as behavioral paradigm underlying the choice of crash avoidance maneuvers. Alternatively to previous studies that considered utility maximization, this study applies the random regret minimization (RRM) model while assuming that drivers ...

The application of the random regret minimization model to drivers’ choice of crash avoidance maneuvers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

2012-01-01

This study explores the plausibility of regret minimization as behavioral paradigm underlying the choice of crash avoidance maneuvers. Alternatively to previous studies that considered utility maximization, this study applies the random regret minimization (RRM) model while assuming that drivers ...

The Multiple-Choice Model: Some Solutions for Estimation of Parameters in the Presence of Omitted Responses

Science.gov (United States)

Abad, Francisco J.; Olea, Julio; Ponsoda, Vicente

2009-01-01

This article deals with some of the problems that have hindered the application of Samejima's and Thissen and Steinberg's multiple-choice models: (a) parameter estimation difficulties owing to the large number of parameters involved, (b) parameter identifiability problems in the Thissen and Steinberg model, and (c) their treatment of omitted…

Hybrid choice model to disentangle the effect of awareness from attitudes: Application test of soft measures in medium size city

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sottile, Eleonora; Meloni, Italo; Cherchi, Elisabetta

2017-01-01

The need to reduce private vehicle use has led to the development of soft measures aimed at re-educating car users through information processes that raise their awareness about the benefits of environmentally friendly modes, encouraging them to voluntarily change their travel choice behaviour......), carried out with the purpose of promoting the use of the light rail in Park and Ride mode. To account for all these effects in the choice between car and Park and Ride we estimate a Hybrid Choice Model where the discrete choice structure allows us to estimate the effect of awareness of environment...

WRF model sensitivity to choice of parameterization: a study of the `York Flood 1999'

Science.gov (United States)

Remesan, Renji; Bellerby, Tim; Holman, Ian; Frostick, Lynne

2015-10-01

Numerical weather modelling has gained considerable attention in the field of hydrology especially in un-gauged catchments and in conjunction with distributed models. As a consequence, the accuracy with which these models represent precipitation, sub-grid-scale processes and exceptional events has become of considerable concern to the hydrological community. This paper presents sensitivity analyses for the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model with respect to the choice of physical parameterization schemes (both cumulus parameterisation (CPSs) and microphysics parameterization schemes (MPSs)) used to represent the `1999 York Flood' event, which occurred over North Yorkshire, UK, 1st-14th March 1999. The study assessed four CPSs (Kain-Fritsch (KF2), Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ), Grell-Devenyi ensemble (GD) and the old Kain-Fritsch (KF1)) and four MPSs (Kessler, Lin et al., WRF single-moment 3-class (WSM3) and WRF single-moment 5-class (WSM5)] with respect to their influence on modelled rainfall. The study suggests that the BMJ scheme may be a better cumulus parameterization choice for the study region, giving a consistently better performance than other three CPSs, though there are suggestions of underestimation. The WSM3 was identified as the best MPSs and a combined WSM3/BMJ model setup produced realistic estimates of precipitation quantities for this exceptional flood event. This study analysed spatial variability in WRF performance through categorical indices, including POD, FBI, FAR and CSI during York Flood 1999 under various model settings. Moreover, the WRF model was good at predicting high-intensity rare events over the Yorkshire region, suggesting it has potential for operational use.

Predicting binary choices from probability phrase meanings.

Science.gov (United States)

Wallsten, Thomas S; Jang, Yoonhee

2008-08-01

The issues of how individuals decide which of two events is more likely and of how they understand probability phrases both involve judging relative likelihoods. In this study, we investigated whether derived scales representing probability phrase meanings could be used within a choice model to predict independently observed binary choices. If they can, this simultaneously provides support for our model and suggests that the phrase meanings are measured meaningfully. The model assumes that, when deciding which of two events is more likely, judges take a single sample from memory regarding each event and respond accordingly. The model predicts choice probabilities by using the scaled meanings of individually selected probability phrases as proxies for confidence distributions associated with sampling from memory. Predictions are sustained for 34 of 41 participants but, nevertheless, are biased slightly low. Sequential sampling models improve the fit. The results have both theoretical and applied implications.

Money earlier or later? Simple heuristics explain intertemporal choices better than delay discounting does.

Science.gov (United States)

Ericson, Keith M Marzilli; White, John Myles; Laibson, David; Cohen, Jonathan D

2015-06-01

Heuristic models have been proposed for many domains involving choice. We conducted an out-of-sample, cross-validated comparison of heuristic models of intertemporal choice (which can account for many of the known intertemporal choice anomalies) and discounting models. Heuristic models outperformed traditional utility-discounting models, including models of exponential and hyperbolic discounting. The best-performing models predicted choices by using a weighted average of absolute differences and relative percentage differences of the attributes of the goods in a choice set. We concluded that heuristic models explain time-money trade-off choices in experiments better than do utility-discounting models. © The Author(s) 2015.

Incorporating Context Effects into a Choice Model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rooderkerk, Robert P.; Van Heerde, Harald J.; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.

The behavioral literature provides ample evidence that consumer preferences are partly driven by the context provided by the set of alternatives. Three important context effects are the compromise, attraction, and similarity effects. Because these context effects affect choices in a systematic and

Incorporating context effects into a choice model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bijmolt, T.H.A.; van Heerde, H.J.; Rooderkerk, R.P.

2011-01-01

The behavioral literature provides ample evidence that consumer preferences are partly driven by the context provided by the set of alternatives. three important context effects are the compromise, attraction, and similarity effects. because these context effects affect choices in a systematic and

Women's career choices in chemistry: Motivations, perceptions, and a conceptual model

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Grunert, Megan L.

Statistics showing the under-representation of women at all levels within the physical sciences abound, particularly at the graduate and faculty levels. Women chemists choosing an academic career tend to select teaching institutions over research institutions. This study examined women at the graduate and faculty levels through interviews and the construction of participant narratives to better understand why many women opt out of a career in academic research. Specific attention was paid to women's decision-making processes and what motivates women to choose careers, the rewards and challenges associated with different careers, and the perception of different careers contribute to their decisions. The participant narratives were analyzed on a cross-case basis and constructivist grounded theory was used to develop a model about women's decision-making regarding their careers. Additionally, preliminary work has suggested that graduate students have inaccurate perceptions of careers in academia. Interviews with faculty at teaching and research institutions provided a clearer picture of what each type of career entails. Career-choice motivators, rewards, and challenges were identified for each of the faculty groups. It was found that graduate student women have inaccurate perceptions of academic research careers, which affects how they make career decisions. A model of career choice shows interactions between motivation and perception that guide the career decision-making process. By better understanding these women and their motivations, changes can be made to foster inclusion and accommodation for women and other underrepresented groups in academic chemistry.

Applied welfare economics with discrete choice models: implications of theory for empirical specification

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Batley, Richard; Ibáñez Rivas, Juan Nicolás

2013-01-01

in economics. Whilst some researchers were quick to see its practical potential (e.g. McFadden, 1968, 1975), it was not until the late 1970s and early 1980s that RUM was equipped with a reasonably comprehensive theoretical rationale in terms of the economics of consumption. An important tenet of this rationale......The apparatus of the Random Utility Model (RUM) first emerged in the early 1960s, with Marschak (1960) and Block and Marschak (1960) translating models originally developed for discriminant analysis in psychophysics (Thurstone, 1927) to the alternative domain of discrete choice analysis...

Doubting What to Eat: A Computational Model for Food Choice Using Different Valuing Perspectives

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Abro, Altaf H.; Treur, Jan; Hirose, Akira; Ozawa, Seiichi; Doya, Kenji; Lee, Minho; Liu, Derong

2016-01-01

In this paper a computational model for the decision making process of food choices is presented that takes into account a number of aspects on which a decision can be based, for example, a temptation triggered by the food itself, a desire for food triggered by being hungry, valuing by the expected

Discrete Choice Model of Food Store Trips Using National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS).

Science.gov (United States)

Hillier, Amy; Smith, Tony E; Whiteman, Eliza D; Chrisinger, Benjamin W

2017-09-27

Where households across income levels shop for food is of central concern within a growing body of research focused on where people live relative to where they shop, what they purchase and eat, and how those choices influence the risk of obesity and chronic disease. We analyzed data from the National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS) using a conditional logit model to determine where participants shop for food to be prepared and eaten at home and how individual and household characteristics of food shoppers interact with store characteristics and distance from home in determining store choice. Store size, whether or not it was a full-service supermarket, and the driving distance from home to the store constituted the three significant main effects on store choice. Overall, participants were more likely to choose larger stores, conventional supermarkets rather than super-centers and other types of stores, and stores closer to home. Interaction effects show that participants receiving Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) were even more likely to choose larger stores. Hispanic participants were more likely than non-Hispanics to choose full-service supermarkets while White participants were more likely to travel further than non-Whites. This study demonstrates the value of explicitly spatial discrete choice models and provides evidence of national trends consistent with previous smaller, local studies.

Discrete Choice Model of Food Store Trips Using National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amy Hillier

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Where households across income levels shop for food is of central concern within a growing body of research focused on where people live relative to where they shop, what they purchase and eat, and how those choices influence the risk of obesity and chronic disease. We analyzed data from the National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS using a conditional logit model to determine where participants shop for food to be prepared and eaten at home and how individual and household characteristics of food shoppers interact with store characteristics and distance from home in determining store choice. Store size, whether or not it was a full-service supermarket, and the driving distance from home to the store constituted the three significant main effects on store choice. Overall, participants were more likely to choose larger stores, conventional supermarkets rather than super-centers and other types of stores, and stores closer to home. Interaction effects show that participants receiving Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP were even more likely to choose larger stores. Hispanic participants were more likely than non-Hispanics to choose full-service supermarkets while White participants were more likely to travel further than non-Whites. This study demonstrates the value of explicitly spatial discrete choice models and provides evidence of national trends consistent with previous smaller, local studies.

A family of spatial interaction models incorporating information flows and choice set constraints applied to U.S. interstate labor flows.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, T R; Slater, P B

1981-01-01

"A new family of migration models belonging to the elimination by aspects family is examined, with the spatial interaction model shown to be a special case. The models have simple forms; they incorporate information flow processes and choice set constraints; they are free of problems raised by the Luce Choice Axiom; and are capable of generating intransitive flows. Preliminary calibrations using the Continuous Work History Sample [time] series data indicate that the model fits the migration data well, while providing estimates of interstate job message flows. The preliminary calculations also indicate that care is needed in assuming that destination [attraction] are independent of origins." excerpt

Integrated Mode Choice, Small Aircraft Demand, and Airport Operations Model User's Guide

Science.gov (United States)

Yackovetsky, Robert E. (Technical Monitor); Dollyhigh, Samuel M.

2004-01-01

A mode choice model that generates on-demand air travel forecasts at a set of GA airports based on changes in economic characteristics, vehicle performance characteristics such as speed and cost, and demographic trends has been integrated with a model to generate itinerate aircraft operations by airplane category at a set of 3227 airports. Numerous intermediate outputs can be generated, such as the number of additional trips diverted from automobiles and schedule air by the improved performance and cost of on-demand air vehicles. The total number of transported passenger miles that are diverted is also available. From these results the number of new aircraft to service the increased demand can be calculated. Output from the models discussed is in the format to generate the origin and destination traffic flow between the 3227 airports based on solutions to a gravity model.

The endogenous grid method for discrete-continuous dynamic choice models with (or without) taste shocks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iskhakov, Fedor; Jørgensen, Thomas H.; Rust, John

2017-01-01

We present a fast and accurate computational method for solving and estimating a class of dynamic programming models with discrete and continuous choice variables. The solution method we develop for structural estimation extends the endogenous grid-point method (EGM) to discrete-continuous (DC) p...

Data analysis and approximate models model choice, location-scale, analysis of variance, nonparametric regression and image analysis

CERN Document Server

Davies, Patrick Laurie

2014-01-01

Introduction IntroductionApproximate Models Notation Two Modes of Statistical AnalysisTowards One Mode of Analysis Approximation, Randomness, Chaos, Determinism ApproximationA Concept of Approximation Approximation Approximating a Data Set by a Model Approximation Regions Functionals and EquivarianceRegularization and Optimality Metrics and DiscrepanciesStrong and Weak Topologies On Being (almost) Honest Simulations and Tables Degree of Approximation and p-values ScalesStability of Analysis The Choice of En(α, P) Independence Procedures, Approximation and VaguenessDiscrete Models The Empirical Density Metrics and Discrepancies The Total Variation Metric The Kullback-Leibler and Chi-Squared Discrepancies The Po(λ) ModelThe b(k, p) and nb(k, p) Models The Flying Bomb Data The Student Study Times Data OutliersOutliers, Data Analysis and Models Breakdown Points and Equivariance Identifying Outliers and Breakdown Outliers in Multivariate Data Outliers in Linear Regression Outliers in Structured Data The Location...

Influence of convenience on healthy food choice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mueller Loose, Simone; Peschel, Anne; Grebitus, Carola

Although seafood is considered to be a healthy food choice, the recommended consumption level of two servings per week is still not reached in most countries. Previous research has identified potential barriers of seafood consumption, including purchase and consumption convenience, but it is still...... participated in an online choice experiment with visual product stimuli to simulate their choice of oysters in a retail store. Considering preference heterogeneity respondents’ choices were analyzed with a scale adjusted latent class model and six different consumer segments differing in their preferences were...

Fuzzy social choice models explaining the government formation process

CERN Document Server

C Casey, Peter; A Goodman, Carly; Pook, Kelly Nelson; N Mordeson, John; J Wierman, Mark; D Clark, Terry

2014-01-01

This book explores the extent to which fuzzy set logic can overcome some of the shortcomings of public choice theory, particularly its inability to provide adequate predictive power in empirical studies. Especially in the case of social preferences, public choice theory has failed to produce the set of alternatives from which collective choices are made.  The book presents empirical findings achieved by the authors in their efforts to predict the outcome of government formation processes in European parliamentary and semi-presidential systems.  Using data from the Comparative Manifesto Project (CMP), the authors propose a new approach that reinterprets error in the coding of CMP data as ambiguity in the actual political positions of parties on the policy dimensions being coded. The range of this error establishes parties’ fuzzy preferences. The set of possible outcomes in the process of government formation is then calculated on the basis of both the fuzzy Pareto set and the fuzzy maximal set, and the pre...

Using automatic item generation to create multiple-choice test items.

Science.gov (United States)

Gierl, Mark J; Lai, Hollis; Turner, Simon R

2012-08-01

Many tests of medical knowledge, from the undergraduate level to the level of certification and licensure, contain multiple-choice items. Although these are efficient in measuring examinees' knowledge and skills across diverse content areas, multiple-choice items are time-consuming and expensive to create. Changes in student assessment brought about by new forms of computer-based testing have created the demand for large numbers of multiple-choice items. Our current approaches to item development cannot meet this demand. We present a methodology for developing multiple-choice items based on automatic item generation (AIG) concepts and procedures. We describe a three-stage approach to AIG and we illustrate this approach by generating multiple-choice items for a medical licensure test in the content area of surgery. To generate multiple-choice items, our method requires a three-stage process. Firstly, a cognitive model is created by content specialists. Secondly, item models are developed using the content from the cognitive model. Thirdly, items are generated from the item models using computer software. Using this methodology, we generated 1248 multiple-choice items from one item model. Automatic item generation is a process that involves using models to generate items using computer technology. With our method, content specialists identify and structure the content for the test items, and computer technology systematically combines the content to generate new test items. By combining these outcomes, items can be generated automatically. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2012.

Valuation of risky and uncertain choices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tobler, P.N.; Weber, E.U.; Glimcher, P.W.; Fehr, E.

2013-01-01

In this chapter, we describe how risk and ambiguity impact the value of choice options, how this impact can be modelled formally and how it is implemented in the brain. In particular, we give an overview of two distinct ways of how risky choice options can be decomposed – either into outcomes and

Quantitative genetic models of sexual selection by male choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Nakahashi, Wataru

2008-09-01

There are many examples of male mate choice for female traits that tend to be associated with high fertility. I develop quantitative genetic models of a female trait and a male preference to show when such a male preference can evolve. I find that a disagreement between the fertility maximum and the viability maximum of the female trait is necessary for directional male preference (preference for extreme female trait values) to evolve. Moreover, when there is a shortage of available male partners or variance in male nongenetic quality, strong male preference can evolve. Furthermore, I also show that males evolve to exhibit a stronger preference for females that are more feminine (less resemblance to males) than the average female when there is a sexual dimorphism caused by fertility selection which acts only on females.

Age and choice in health insurance: evidence from a discrete choice experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Becker, Karolin; Zweifel, Peter

2008-01-01

experiment was developed using six attributes (deductibles, co-payment, access to alternative medicines, medication choice, access to innovation, and monthly premium) that are currently in debate within the context of Swiss health insurance. These attributes have been shown to be important in the choice of insurance contract. Using statistical design optimization procedures, the number of choice sets was reduced to 27 and randomly split into three groups. One choice was included twice to test for consistency. Two random effects probit models were developed: a simple model where marginal utilities and WTP values were not allowed to vary according to socioeconomic characteristics, and a more complex model where the values were permitted to depend on socioeconomic variables.A representative telephone survey of 1000 people aged >24 years living in the German- and French-speaking parts of Switzerland was conducted. Participants were asked to compare the status quo (i.e. their current insurance contract) with ten hypothetical alternatives. In addition, participants were asked questions concerning utilization of healthcare services; overall satisfaction with the healthcare system, insurer and insurance policy; and a general preference for new elements in the insurance package. Socioeconomic variables surveyed were age, sex, total household income, education (seven categories ranging from primary school to university degree), place of residence, occupation, and marital status. All chosen elements proved relevant for choice in the simple model. Accounting for socioeconomic characteristics in the comprehensive model reveals preference heterogeneity for contract attributes, but also for the propensity to consider deviating from the status quo and choosing an alternative health insurance contract. The findings suggest that while the elderly do exhibit a stronger status quo bias than younger age groups, they require less rather than more specific compensation for selected cutbacks

Using metro smart card data to model location choice of after-work activities : an application to Shanghai

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wang, Y.; Homem de Almeida Correia, G.; de Romph, E.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2017-01-01

A location choice model explains how travellers choose their trip destinations especially for those activities which are flexible in space and time. The model is usually estimated using travel survey data; however, little is known about how to use smart card data (SCD) for this purpose in a public

Using metro smart card data to model location choice of after-work activities: An application to Shanghai

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wang, Y.; Correia, G.H.D.A.; Romph, E. de; Timmermans, H.J.P.H.

2017-01-01

A location choice model explains how travellers choose their trip destinations especially for those activities which are flexible in space and time. The model is usually estimated using travel survey data; however, little is known about how to use smart card data (SCD) for this purpose in a public

Analysis of the Professional Choice Self-Efficacy Scale Using the Rasch-Andrich Rating Scale Model

Science.gov (United States)

Ambiel, Rodolfo A. M.; Noronha, Ana Paula Porto; de Francisco Carvalho, Lucas

2015-01-01

The aim of this research was to analyze the psychometrics properties of the professional choice self-efficacy scale (PCSES), using the Rasch-Andrich rating scale model. The PCSES assesses four factors: self-appraisal, gathering occupational information, practical professional information search and future planning. Participants were 883 Brazilian…

Investigating attribute non-attendance and its consequences in choice experiments with latent class models.

Science.gov (United States)

Lagarde, Mylene

2013-05-01

A growing literature, mainly from transport and environment economics, has started to explore whether respondents violate some of the axioms about individuals' preferences in Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) and use simple strategies to make their choices. One of these strategies, termed attribute non-attendance (ANA), consists in ignoring one or more attributes. Using data from a DCE administered to healthcare providers in Ghana to evaluate their potential resistance to changes in clinical guidelines, this study illustrates how latent class models can be used in a step-wise approach to account for all possible ANA strategies used by respondents and explore the consequences of such behaviours. Results show that less than 3% of respondents considered all attributes when choosing between the two hypothetical scenarios proposed, with a majority looking at only one or two attributes. Accounting for ANA strategies improved the goodness-of-fit of the model and affected the magnitude of some of the coefficient and willingness-to-pay estimates. However, there was no difference in the predicted probabilities of the model taking into account ANA and the standard approach. Although the latter result is reassuring about the ability of DCEs to produce unbiased policy guidance, it should be confirmed by other studies. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Essays on intertemporal consumption and portfolio choice

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Bilsen, Servaas

2015-01-01

This dissertation consists of two parts, preceded by an introductory chapter. Part I (Chapters 2, 3 and 4) considers optimal consumption and portfolio choice using preference models. Chapter 2 analyzes optimal consumption and portfolio choice under loss aversion and endogenous updating of the

The response dynamics of preferential choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Koop, Gregory J; Johnson, Joseph G

2013-12-01

The ubiquity of psychological process models requires an increased degree of sophistication in the methods and metrics that we use to evaluate them. We contribute to this venture by capitalizing on recent work in cognitive science analyzing response dynamics, which shows that the bearing information processing dynamics have on intended action is also revealed in the motor system. This decidedly "embodied" view suggests that researchers are missing out on potential dependent variables with which to evaluate their models-those associated with the motor response that produces a choice. The current work develops a method for collecting and analyzing such data in the domain of decision making. We first validate this method using widely normed stimuli from the International Affective Picture System (Experiment 1), and demonstrate that curvature in response trajectories provides a metric of the competition between choice options. We next extend the method to risky decision making (Experiment 2) and develop predictions for three popular classes of process model. The data provided by response dynamics demonstrate that choices contrary to the maxim of risk seeking in losses and risk aversion in gains may be the product of at least one "online" preference reversal, and can thus begin to discriminate amongst the candidate models. Finally, we incorporate attentional data collected via eye-tracking (Experiment 3) to develop a formal computational model of joint information sampling and preference accumulation. In sum, we validate response dynamics for use in preferential choice tasks and demonstrate the unique conclusions afforded by response dynamics over and above traditional methods. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Models of care choices in today's nursing workplace: where does team nursing sit?

Science.gov (United States)

Fairbrother, Greg; Chiarella, Mary; Braithwaite, Jeffrey

2015-11-01

This paper provides an overview of the developmental history of models of care (MOC) in nursing since Florence Nightingale introduced nurse training programs in a drive to make nursing a discipline-based career option. The four principal choices of models of nursing care delivery (primary nursing, individual patient allocation, team nursing and functional nursing) are outlined and discussed, and recent MOC literature reviewed. The paper suggests that, given the ways work is being rapidly reconfigured in healthcare services and the pressures on the nursing workforce projected into the future, team nursing seems to offer the best solutions.

Patterns of Reinforcement and the Essential Value of Brands: II. Evaluation of a Model of Consumer Choice

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Ji; Foxall, Gordon R.; Doyle, John R.

2012-01-01

We employ a behavioral-economic equation put forward by Hursh and Silberberg (2008) to explain human consumption behavior among substitutable food brands, applying a consumer-choice model--the behavioral perspective model (BPM; Foxall, 1990/2004, 2005). In this study, we apply the behavioral-economic equation to human economic consumption data. We…

Models in cooperative game theory crisp, fuzzy, and multi-choice games

CERN Document Server

Branzei, Rodica; Tijs, Stef

2005-01-01

This book investigates models in cooperative game theory in which the players have the possibility to cooperate partially. In a crisp game the agents are either fully involved or not involved at all in coperation with some other agents, while in a fuzzy game players are allowed to cooperate with infinite many different participation levels, varying from non-cooperation to full cooperation. A multi-choice game describes the intermediate case in which each player may have a fixed number of activity levels. Different set and one-point solution concepts for these games are presented. The propertie

Mate Choice Drives Evolutionary Stability in a Hybrid Complex.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miguel Morgado-Santos

Full Text Available Previous studies have shown that assortative mating acts as a driver of speciation by countering hybridization between two populations of the same species (pre-zygotic isolation or through mate choice among the hybrids (hybrid speciation. In both speciation types, assortative mating promotes speciation over a transient hybridization stage. We studied mate choice in a hybrid vertebrate complex, the allopolyploid fish Squalius alburnoides. This complex is composed by several genomotypes connected by an intricate reproductive dynamics. We developed a model that predicts the hybrid complex can persist when females exhibit particular mate choice patterns. Our model is able to reproduce the diversity of population dynamic outcomes found in nature, namely the dominance of the triploids and the dominance of the tetraploids, depending on female mate choice patterns and frequency of the parental species. Experimental mate choice trials showed that females exhibit the preferences predicted by the model. Thus, despite the known role of assortative mating in driving speciation, our findings suggest that certain mate choice patterns can instead hinder speciation and support the persistence of hybrids over time without speciation or extinction.

Renewable energy systems the choice and modeling of 100% renewable solutions

CERN Document Server

Lund, Henrik

2009-01-01

How can society quickly convert to renewable energy? Can worldwide energy needs ever be met through 100% renewable sources? The answers to these questions rest largely on the perception of choice in the energy arena. It is of pivotal importance that engineers, researchers and policymakers understand what choices are available, and reasonable, when considering the design and deployment of new energy systems. The mission of this new book, written by one of the world's foremost experts in renewable power, is to arm these professionals with the tools and methodologies necessary to make smart choic

Electricity contract choices of Finnish residential customers. A choice based conjoint analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rouvinen, S.; Matero, J. (Univ. of Eastern Finland, Joensuu (Finland), School of Forest Sciences), e-mail: seppo.rouvinen@uef.fi, e-mail: jukka.matero@uef.fi

2010-07-01

Our aim is to examine how different environmental attributes of electricity contracts affect the residential customer choices when heterogeneity in customer preferences and motivations is taken into account. The data was acquired by a mail questionnaire to random sample of Finnish people in October-November 2009 with a response rate of 38 %. In addition to conventional questions, like questions on socio-demographic and agreements of energy related statements, the discrete choice experiment (DCE) of electricity contracts was included. The choice sets in the DCE had three electricity contract alternatives with varying levels of predetermined attributes (including unit price, supplier type, frequency of power outages, energy source and CO{sub 2} emissions). In this paper, we present the findings of our DCE design. Modeling respondent choices resulted in implicit prices for various electricity contract attributes that provide guidance for green marketing strategies of electricity suppliers and energy related informational activities of public institutions. We conclude that currently the potential for increasing demand-based environmental competitiveness from the wood electricity differentiation remains limited as we did not find any significant market segment of residential customers with strong preferences for wood over other sources of electricity (including 'mixture'). (orig.)

Computational mate choice: theory and empirical evidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Castellano, Sergio; Cadeddu, Giorgia; Cermelli, Paolo

2012-06-01

The present review is based on the thesis that mate choice results from information-processing mechanisms governed by computational rules and that, to understand how females choose their mates, we should identify which are the sources of information and how they are used to make decisions. We describe mate choice as a three-step computational process and for each step we present theories and review empirical evidence. The first step is a perceptual process. It describes the acquisition of evidence, that is, how females use multiple cues and signals to assign an attractiveness value to prospective mates (the preference function hypothesis). The second step is a decisional process. It describes the construction of the decision variable (DV), which integrates evidence (private information by direct assessment), priors (public information), and value (perceived utility) of prospective mates into a quantity that is used by a decision rule (DR) to produce a choice. We make the assumption that females are optimal Bayesian decision makers and we derive a formal model of DV that can explain the effects of preference functions, mate copying, social context, and females' state and condition on the patterns of mate choice. The third step of mating decision is a deliberative process that depends on the DRs. We identify two main categories of DRs (absolute and comparative rules), and review the normative models of mate sampling tactics associated to them. We highlight the limits of the normative approach and present a class of computational models (sequential-sampling models) that are based on the assumption that DVs accumulate noisy evidence over time until a decision threshold is reached. These models force us to rethink the dichotomy between comparative and absolute decision rules, between discrimination and recognition, and even between rational and irrational choice. Since they have a robust biological basis, we think they may represent a useful theoretical tool for

Consumers' food choice and quality perception

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brunsø, Karen; Fjord, Thomas Ahle; Grunert, Klaus G.

to which the topic has been researched at MAPP. As a general framework for analysing consumer quality perception and choice of food products, MAPP has developed the Total Food Quality Model, which will be used to structure this overview. We start by presenting the Total Food Quality Model and an overview......There is a long tradition of research into consumers' food choice and quality perception. In the last few years, however, these topics have received even more attention due to the intense debate about such issues as ethical considerations in relation to food production and quality, food scandals...... and the resulting food scares among consumers, genetic modification of foods, and animal welfare (or, rather, non-welfare), which has made questions regarding food quality and consumers' supposedly rational or irrational food choices even more urgent. Increased interest in health and quality stands in stark...

The impact of choice context on consumers' choice heuristics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mueller Loose, Simone; Scholderer, Joachim; Corsi, Armando M.

2012-01-01

Context effects in choice settings have received recent attention but little is known about the impact of context on choice consistency and the extent to which consumers apply choice heuristics. The sequence of alternatives in a choice set is examined here as one specific context effect. We compare...... how a change from a typical price order to a sensory order in wine menus affects consumer choice. We use pre-specified latent heuristic classes to analyse the existence of different choice processes, which begins to untangle the ‘black box’ of how consumers choose. Our findings indicate...... that in the absence of price order, consumers are less price-sensitive, pay more attention to visually salient cues, are less consistent in their choices and employ other simple choice heuristics more frequently than price. Implications for consumer research, marketing and consumer policy are discussed....

Dynamic Portfolio Choice with Frictions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Garleanu, Nicolae; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

2016-01-01

We show how portfolio choice can be modeled in continuous time with transitory and persistent transaction costs, multiple assets, multiple signals predicting returns, and general signal dynamics. The objective function is derived from the limit of discrete-time models with endogenous transaction...

Optimal Portfolio Choice with Wash Sale Constraints

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Astrup Jensen, Bjarne; Marekwica, Marcel

2011-01-01

We analytically solve the portfolio choice problem in the presence of wash sale constraints in a two-period model with one risky asset. Our results show that wash sale constraints can heavily affect portfolio choice of investors with unrealized losses. The trading behavior of such investors...

Neighborhood choices, neighborhood effects and housing vouchers

OpenAIRE

Davis, Morris A.; Gregory, Jesse; Hartley, Daniel A.; Tan, Kegon T. K.

2017-01-01

We study how households choose neighborhoods, how neighborhoods affect child ability, and how housing vouchers influence neighborhood choices and child outcomes. We use two new panel data sets with tract-level detail for Los Angeles county to estimate a dynamic model of optimal tract-level location choice for renting households and, separately, the impact of living in a given tract on child test scores (which we call "child ability" throughout). We simulate optimal location choices and change...

Empirical study of travel mode forecasting improvement for the combined revealed preference/stated preference data–based discrete choice model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanfu Qiao

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The combined revealed preference/stated preference data–based discrete choice model has provided the actual choice-making restraints as well as reduced the prediction errors. But the random error variance of alternatives belonging to different data would impact its universality. In this article, we studied the traffic corridor between Chengdu and Longquan with the revealed preference/stated preference joint model, and the single stated preference data model separately predicted the choice probability of each mode. We found the revealed preference/stated preference joint model is universal only when there is a significant difference between the random error terms in different data. The single stated preference data would amplify the travelers’ preference and cause prediction error. We proposed a universal way that uses revealed preference data to modify the single stated preference data parameter estimation results to achieve the composite utility and reduce the prediction error. And the result suggests that prediction results are more reasonable based on the composite utility than the results based on the single stated preference data, especially forecasting the mode share of bus. The future metro line will be the main travel mode in this corridor, and 45% of passenger flow will transfer to the metro.

Issues or Identity? Cognitive Foundations of Voter Choice

Science.gov (United States)

Jenke, Libby; Huettel, Scott A.

2016-01-01

Voter choice is one of the most important problems in political science. The most common models assume that voting is a rational choice based on policy positions (e.g., key issues) and non-policy information (e.g., social identity, personality). Though such models explain macroscopic features of elections, they also reveal important anomalies that have been resistant to explanation. We argue for a new approach that builds upon recent research in cognitive science and neuroscience; specifically, we contend that policy positions and social identities do not combine in merely an additive manner, but compete to determine voter preferences. This model not only explains several key anomalies in voter choice, but also suggests new directions for research in both political science and cognitive science. PMID:27769726

A linear programming model of diet choice of free-living beavers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nolet, BA; VanderVeer, PJ; Evers, EGJ; Ottenheim, MM

1995-01-01

Linear programming has been remarkably successful in predicting the diet choice of generalist herbivores. We used this technique to test the diet choice of free-living beavers (Castor fiber) in the Biesbosch (The Netherlands) under different Foraging goals, i.e. maximization of intake of energy,

Own-Choice Marriage and Fertility in Turkey.

Science.gov (United States)

Manglos-Weber, Nicolette D; Weinreb, Alexander A

2017-04-01

Goode's foundational work on the fertility transition identified own-choice marriage as a factor driving fertility decline, part of a widening repertoire of choice pertaining to marriage and childbearing. Yet research supporting this connection in today's transitional societies is scarce and somewhat contradictory, and it is unclear how other marital traditions, such as consanguineous marriage, shape this relationship. This study evaluates Goode's theorized connection using pooled Demographic and Health Survey data from Turkey, comparing children ever born, use of contraception, and parity progression across four types of marriage: own-choice and arranged marriage; and marriage to a cousin versus an unrelated spouse. Results are largely consistent with the idea that a move towards own-choice marriage reflects a widening repertoire of choice that also leads to fertility decline. However, they also show that hybrid models like own-choice marriage to a cousin tempers these effects.

Own-Choice Marriage and Fertility in Turkey

Science.gov (United States)

Weinreb, Alexander A.

2016-01-01

Goode’s foundational work on the fertility transition identified own-choice marriage as a factor driving fertility decline, part of a widening repertoire of choice pertaining to marriage and childbearing. Yet research supporting this connection in today’s transitional societies is scarce and somewhat contradictory, and it is unclear how other marital traditions, such as consanguineous marriage, shape this relationship. This study evaluates Goode’s theorized connection using pooled Demographic and Health Survey data from Turkey, comparing children ever born, use of contraception, and parity progression across four types of marriage: own-choice and arranged marriage; and marriage to a cousin versus an unrelated spouse. Results are largely consistent with the idea that a move towards own-choice marriage reflects a widening repertoire of choice that also leads to fertility decline. However, they also show that hybrid models like own-choice marriage to a cousin tempers these effects. PMID:28316343

Interdependent binary choices under social influence: Phase diagram for homogeneous unbiased populations

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández del Río, Ana; Korutcheva, Elka; de la Rubia, Javier

2012-07-01

Coupled Ising models are studied in a discrete choice theory framework, where they can be understood to represent interdependent choice making processes for homogeneous populations under social influence. Two different coupling schemes are considered. The nonlocal or group interdependence model is used to study two interrelated groups making the same binary choice. The local or individual interdependence model represents a single group where agents make two binary choices which depend on each other. For both models, phase diagrams, and their implications in socioeconomic contexts, are described and compared in the absence of private deterministic utilities (zero opinion fields).

Testing a bioenergetics-based habitat choice model: bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus) responses to food availability and temperature

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Using an automated shuttlebox system, we conducted patch choice experiments with 32, 8–12 g bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus) to test a behavioral energetics hypothesis of habitat choice. When patch temperature and food levels were held constant within patches but different between patches, we expected bluegill to choose patches that maximized growth based on the bioenergetic integration of food and temperature as predicted by a bioenergetics model. Alternative hypotheses were that bluegill may choose patches based only on food (optimal foraging) or temperature (behavioral thermoregulation). The behavioral energetics hypothesis was not a good predictor of short-term (from minutes to weeks) patch choice by bluegill; the behavioral thermoregulation hypothesis was the best predictor. In the short-term, food and temperature appeared to affect patch choice hierarchically; temperature was more important, although food can alter temperature preference during feeding periods. Over a 19-d experiment, mean temperatures occupied by fish offered low rations did decline as predicted by the behavioral energetics hypothesis, but the decline was less than 1.0 °C as opposed to a possible 5 °C decline. A short-term, bioenergetic response to food and temperature may be precluded by physiological costs of acclimation not considered explicitly in the behavioral energetics hypothesis.

The effects of activity-travel context and individual attitudes on car-sharing decisions under travel time uncertainty : a hybrid choice modeling approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kim, J.; Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2017-01-01

People's daily decision to use car-sharing rather than other transport modes for conducting a specific activity has been investigated recently in assessing the market potential of car-sharing systems. Most studies have estimated transport mode choice models with an extended choice set using

Modeling Fuel Choice among Households in Northern Cameroon

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jean Hugues Nlom

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The present study aims to explore economic and socio-demographic factors that influence a household’s probability to switch from firewood to cleaner fuels (kerosene and LPG in northern Cameroon. The paper employs an ordered probit model to construct cooking patterns and fuel choices. Three main cooking sources are considered: firewood, kerosene, and liquefied petroleum gas. Utilized data are derived from a national survey conducted in 2004 by the Cameroonian National Institute of Statistics. The study analyzes the data related to the Sudano-Sahelian agro-ecological zone, which is one of the most affected by land degradation and decertification. While results indicate that there is a potential for a transition from traditional to cleaner fuels in the studied region, this transition is still in its earlier stage. The research demonstrates that firewood and kerosene prices, age of household heads, educational level of household heads and willingness to have a gas cylinder, as well as type of dwelling have a statistically significant impact on fuel-switching decisions.

Search, Memory, and Choice Error: An Experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanjurjo, Adam

2015-01-01

Multiple attribute search is a central feature of economic life: we consider much more than price when purchasing a home, and more than wage when choosing a job. An experiment is conducted in order to explore the effects of cognitive limitations on choice in these rich settings, in accordance with the predictions of a new model of search memory load. In each task, subjects are made to search the same information in one of two orders, which differ in predicted memory load. Despite standard models of choice treating such variations in order of acquisition as irrelevant, lower predicted memory load search orders are found to lead to substantially fewer choice errors. An implication of the result for search behavior, more generally, is that in order to reduce memory load (thus choice error) a limited memory searcher ought to deviate from the search path of an unlimited memory searcher in predictable ways-a mechanism that can explain the systematic deviations from optimal sequential search that have recently been discovered in peoples' behavior. Further, as cognitive load is induced endogenously (within the task), and found to affect choice behavior, this result contributes to the cognitive load literature (in which load is induced exogenously), as well as the cognitive ability literature (in which cognitive ability is measured in a separate task). In addition, while the information overload literature has focused on the detrimental effects of the quantity of information on choice, this result suggests that, holding quantity constant, the order that information is observed in is an essential determinant of choice failure.

Search, Memory, and Choice Error: An Experiment.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adam Sanjurjo

Full Text Available Multiple attribute search is a central feature of economic life: we consider much more than price when purchasing a home, and more than wage when choosing a job. An experiment is conducted in order to explore the effects of cognitive limitations on choice in these rich settings, in accordance with the predictions of a new model of search memory load. In each task, subjects are made to search the same information in one of two orders, which differ in predicted memory load. Despite standard models of choice treating such variations in order of acquisition as irrelevant, lower predicted memory load search orders are found to lead to substantially fewer choice errors. An implication of the result for search behavior, more generally, is that in order to reduce memory load (thus choice error a limited memory searcher ought to deviate from the search path of an unlimited memory searcher in predictable ways-a mechanism that can explain the systematic deviations from optimal sequential search that have recently been discovered in peoples' behavior. Further, as cognitive load is induced endogenously (within the task, and found to affect choice behavior, this result contributes to the cognitive load literature (in which load is induced exogenously, as well as the cognitive ability literature (in which cognitive ability is measured in a separate task. In addition, while the information overload literature has focused on the detrimental effects of the quantity of information on choice, this result suggests that, holding quantity constant, the order that information is observed in is an essential determinant of choice failure.

Uncertainty in action-value estimation affects both action choice and learning rate of the choice behaviors of rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Funamizu, Akihiro; Ito, Makoto; Doya, Kenji; Kanzaki, Ryohei; Takahashi, Hirokazu

2012-04-01

The estimation of reward outcomes for action candidates is essential for decision making. In this study, we examined whether and how the uncertainty in reward outcome estimation affects the action choice and learning rate. We designed a choice task in which rats selected either the left-poking or right-poking hole and received a reward of a food pellet stochastically. The reward probabilities of the left and right holes were chosen from six settings (high, 100% vs. 66%; mid, 66% vs. 33%; low, 33% vs. 0% for the left vs. right holes, and the opposites) in every 20-549 trials. We used Bayesian Q-learning models to estimate the time course of the probability distribution of action values and tested if they better explain the behaviors of rats than standard Q-learning models that estimate only the mean of action values. Model comparison by cross-validation revealed that a Bayesian Q-learning model with an asymmetric update for reward and non-reward outcomes fit the choice time course of the rats best. In the action-choice equation of the Bayesian Q-learning model, the estimated coefficient for the variance of action value was positive, meaning that rats were uncertainty seeking. Further analysis of the Bayesian Q-learning model suggested that the uncertainty facilitated the effective learning rate. These results suggest that the rats consider uncertainty in action-value estimation and that they have an uncertainty-seeking action policy and uncertainty-dependent modulation of the effective learning rate. © 2012 The Authors. European Journal of Neuroscience © 2012 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Application of fuzzy logic to social choice theory

CERN Document Server

Mordeson, John N; Clark, Terry D

2015-01-01

Fuzzy social choice theory is useful for modeling the uncertainty and imprecision prevalent in social life yet it has been scarcely applied and studied in the social sciences. Filling this gap, Application of Fuzzy Logic to Social Choice Theory provides a comprehensive study of fuzzy social choice theory.The book explains the concept of a fuzzy maximal subset of a set of alternatives, fuzzy choice functions, the factorization of a fuzzy preference relation into the ""union"" (conorm) of a strict fuzzy relation and an indifference operator, fuzzy non-Arrowian results, fuzzy versions of Arrow's

Transitivity of an entangled choice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Makowski, Marcin; Piotrowski, Edward W

2011-01-01

We describe a quantum model of a simple choice game (constructed upon the entangled state of two qubits), which involves the fundamental problem of transitive-intransitive preferences. We compare attainability of optimal intransitive strategies in both classical and quantum models with the use of geometrical interpretation.

Model of traffic access mode and railway station choice of suburban railway system in Slovenia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gregor RAK

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This article presents the establishment of a model of understanding the access mode and railway station choice of Slovenian passengers. Therefore, a model has been designed to predict the determination of existing decision making preferences of railway users about the access mode and railway station choice with a stated preference survey and face to face method. The target group in the survey were railway passengers in the suburban environment that use the rail for work and school purposes. The total number of respondents was 412. The survey showed that most passengers access the railway station with car (60,2%, by foot (26,2%, with public transport (bus – 8,3% and with bike (5,3%. Average distance to the station is 4,9 km, average time of access is 10,5 min. Upon exit most passengers walk to the final destination (84,5%, use the public transport (bus – 14,1%, car (1,2% or bike (0,2%. Average time from exit of the train to final destination is 13,1 min, average distance is 1,58 km.

Flying personal planes: modeling the airport choices of general aviation pilots using stated preference methodology.

Science.gov (United States)

Camasso, M J; Jagannathan, R

2001-01-01

This study employed stated preference (SP) models to determine why general aviation pilots choose to base and operate their aircraft at some airports and not others. Thirteen decision variables identified in pilot focus groups and in the general aviation literature were incorporated into a series of hypothetical choice tasks or scenarios. The scenarios were offered within a fractional factorial design to establish orthogonality and to preclude dominance in any combination of variables. Data from 113 pilots were analyzed for individual differences across pilots using conditional logit regression with and without controls. The results demonstrate that some airport attributes (e.g., full-range hospitality services, paved parallel taxiway, and specific types of runway lighting and landing aids) increase pilot utility. Heavy airport congestion and airport landing fees, on the other hand, decrease pilot utility. The importance of SP methodology as a vehicle for modeling choice behavior and as an input into the planning and prioritization process is discussed. Actual or potential applications include the development of structured decision-making instruments in the behavioral sciences and in human service programs.

Issues or Identity? Cognitive Foundations of Voter Choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Jenke, Libby; Huettel, Scott A

2016-11-01

Voter choice is one of the most important problems in political science. The most common models assume that voting is a rational choice based on policy positions (e.g., key issues) and nonpolicy information (e.g., social identity, personality). Though such models explain macroscopic features of elections, they also reveal important anomalies that have been resistant to explanation. We argue for a new approach that builds upon recent research in cognitive science and neuroscience; specifically, we contend that policy positions and social identities do not combine in merely an additive manner, but compete to determine voter preferences. This model not only explains several key anomalies in voter choice, but also suggests new directions for research in both political science and cognitive science. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Existential autonomy: why patients should make their own choices.

Science.gov (United States)

Madder, H

1997-08-01

Savulescu has recently introduced the "rational non-interventional paternalist" model of the patient-doctor relationship. This paper addresses objections to such a model from the perspective of an anaesthetist. Patients need to make their own decisions if they are to be fully autonomous. Rational non-interventional paternalism undermines the importance of patient choice and so threatens autonomy. Doctors should provide an evaluative judgment of the best medical course of action, but ought to restrict themselves to helping patients to make their own choices rather than making such choices for them.

Choice and ego-depletion: the moderating role of autonomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Moller, Arlen C; Deci, Edward L; Ryan, Richard M

2006-08-01

The self-regulatory strength model maintains that all acts of self-regulation, self-control, and choice result in a state of fatigue called ego-depletion. Self-determination theory differentiates between autonomous regulation and controlled regulation. Because making decisions represents one instance of self-regulation, the authors also differentiate between autonomous choice and controlled choice. Three experiments support the hypothesis that whereas conditions representing controlled choice would be egodepleting, conditions that represented autonomous choice would not. In Experiment 3, the authors found significant mediation by perceived self-determination of the relation between the choice condition (autonomous vs. controlled) and ego-depletion as measured by performance.

Consumer rationality in choice

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Conlon, B.J.

2001-01-01

The dissertation concentrates on consumer choice and the ability of current modelling approaches to capture the underlying behaviour of the individual decision-makers. The standard assumption of a rational utility maximising individual and its implications for observed behaviour are examined and

Expanding the applicability of random regret minimization for route choice analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Prato, Carlo Giacomo

2014-01-01

The discrete choice paradigm of random regret minimization (RRM) has been recently proposed in several choice contexts. In the route choice context, the paradigm has been used to model the choice among three routes and to formulate regret-based stochastic user equilibrium. However, in the same co...

USING DECISION TREES FOR ESTIMATING MODE CHOICE OF TRIPS IN BUCA-IZMIR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. O. Oral

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Decision makers develop transportation plans and models for providing sustainable transport systems in urban areas. Mode Choice is one of the stages in transportation modelling. Data mining techniques can discover factors affecting the mode choice. These techniques can be applied with knowledge process approach. In this study a data mining process model is applied to determine the factors affecting the mode choice with decision trees techniques by considering individual trip behaviours from household survey data collected within Izmir Transportation Master Plan. From this perspective transport mode choice problem is solved on a case in district of Buca-Izmir, Turkey with CRISP-DM knowledge process model.

Using Decision Trees for Estimating Mode Choice of Trips in Buca-Izmir

Science.gov (United States)

Oral, L. O.; Tecim, V.

2013-05-01

Decision makers develop transportation plans and models for providing sustainable transport systems in urban areas. Mode Choice is one of the stages in transportation modelling. Data mining techniques can discover factors affecting the mode choice. These techniques can be applied with knowledge process approach. In this study a data mining process model is applied to determine the factors affecting the mode choice with decision trees techniques by considering individual trip behaviours from household survey data collected within Izmir Transportation Master Plan. From this perspective transport mode choice problem is solved on a case in district of Buca-Izmir, Turkey with CRISP-DM knowledge process model.

Speakers' choice of frame in binary choice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marc van Buiten

2009-02-01

Full Text Available A distinction is proposed between extit{recommending for} preferred choice options and extit{recommending against} non-preferred choice options. In binary choice, both recommendation modes are logically, though not psychologically, equivalent. We report empirical evidence showing that speakers recommending for preferred options predominantly select positive frames, which are less common when speakers recommend against non-preferred options. In addition, option attractiveness is shown to affect speakers' choice of frame, and adoption of recommendation mode. The results are interpreted in terms of three compatibility effects, (i extit{recommendation mode---valence framing compatibility}: speakers' preference for positive framing is enhanced under extit{recommending for} and diminished under extit{recommending against} instructions, (ii extit{option attractiveness---valence framing compatibility}: speakers' preference for positive framing is more pronounced for attractive than for unattractive options, and (iii extit{recommendation mode---option attractiveness compatibility}: speakers are more likely to adopt a extit{recommending for} approach for attractive than for unattractive binary choice pairs.

Choice and privatisation in Swedish primary care.

Science.gov (United States)

Anell, Anders

2011-10-01

In 2007, a new wave of local reforms involving choice for the population and privatisation of providers was initiated in Swedish primary care. Important objectives behind reforms were to strengthen the role of primary care and to improve performance in terms of access and responsiveness. The purpose of this article was to compare the characteristics of the new models and to discuss changes in financial incentives for providers and challenges regarding governance from the part of county councils. A majority of the models being introduced across the 21 county councils can best be described as innovative combinations between a comprehensive responsibility for providers and significant degrees of freedom regarding choice for the population. Key financial characteristics of fixed payment and comprehensive financial responsibility for providers may create financial incentives to under-provide care. Informed choices by the population, in combination with reasonably low barriers for providers to enter the primary care market, should theoretically counterbalance such incentives. To facilitate such competition is indeed a challenge, not only because of difficulties in implementing informed choices but also because the new models favour large and/or horizontally integrated providers. To prevent monopolistic behaviour, county councils may have to accept more competition as well as more governance over clinical practice than initially intended.

Store Format Choice in an Evolving Market . A TPB Approach

OpenAIRE

Singh, Kamaljit Anand; Sinha, Piyush Kumar

2008-01-01

The store choice has been studied extensively in the literature, but store format choice has had limited research attention. The store choice modeling has been primarily done in the random utility theory framework, which however is a neo-economics based view of choice decision that ignores the psychological and behavioral aspects of this planned behavior. The store format choice for bulk grocery purchase despite being a rational context has not been conceptualized in the most accepted constru...

Economic rationality and health and lifestyle choices for people with diabetes.

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, Rachel Mairi

2006-11-01

Economic rationality is traditionally represented by goal-oriented, maximising behaviour, or 'instrumental rationality'. Such a consequentialist, instrumental model of choice is often implicit in a biomedical approach to health promotion and education. The research reported here assesses the relevance of a broader conceptual framework of rationality, which includes 'procedural' and 'expressive' rationality as complements to an instrumental model of rationality, in a health context. Q methodology was used to derive 'factors' underlying health and lifestyle choices, based on a factor analysis of the results of a card sorting procedure undertaken by 27 adult respondents with type 2 diabetes in Newcastle upon Tyne, UK. These factors were then compared with the rationality framework and the appropriateness of an extended model of economic rationality as a means of better understanding health and lifestyle choices was assessed. Taking a wider rational choice perspective, choices which are rendered irrational within a narrow-biomedical or strictly instrumental model, can be understood in terms of a coherent rationale, grounded in the accounts of respondents. The implications of these findings are discussed in terms of rational choice theory and diabetes management and research.

Choice of electricity provider in California after deregulation

Science.gov (United States)

Keanini, Rasa Ilze

Surveys often ask consumers how much they are willing to pay for certain goods and services, without requiring the consumer to actually pay for the good or service. Such surveys, termed stated preference studies, find that consumers value renewable electricity. This result is in contrast to actual experiences in recently deregulated electricity markets in several states, including California. When given the opportunity to choose in California, only one to two percent of the population opted for renewable electricity products. This dissertation used data from residential customers who chose an alternative electricity product in California's deregulated electricity market to determine the value placed on the renewable attribute of electricity products. This dissertation begins by taking a historical look at the electricity market of the nation and specifically California. From 1998 through 2001, California's electricity market was deregulated to include retail competition. This dissertation used data from electric service providers to reveal the factors influencing residential customer's choice of electricity product. Discrete choice models were used to determine the factors influencing electricity product choice. The results indicated that both price and renewable content had an effect on choice of product. Additionally, a more complicated model jointly estimating the discrete choice of electricity product with the continuous choice of electricity consumption (kWh) was specified and estimated.

A Subjective Rational Choice

Science.gov (United States)

Vinogradov, G. P.

2017-01-01

The problem of constructing a choice model of an agent with endogenous purposes of evolution is under debate. It is demonstrated that its solution requires the development of well-known methods of decision-making while taking into account the relation of action mode motivation to an agent’s ambition to implement subjectively understood interests and the environment state. The latter is submitted for consideration as a purposeful state situation model that exists only in the mind of an agent. It is the situation that is a basis for getting an insight into the agent’s ideas on the possible selected action mode results. The agent’s ambition to build his confidence in the feasibility of the action mode and the possibility of achieving the desired state requires him to use the procedures of forming an idea model based on the measured values of environment state. This leads to the gaming approach for the choice problem and its solution can be obtained on a set of trade-off alternatives.

Tourist destination choice: A bibliometric study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claudio Sunao Saito

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This bibliometric study aims to understand the main subjects, approaches, and theoretical references related to travel destination choice. The Scopus database, statistical software, and citation analysis defined the relevance and prestige of the articles, authors, models, and theoretical foundations, based on the number of citations in later articles. The results demonstrate that there are a diversity of perspectives and approaches related to the topic and the articles can be grouped into studies related to decision models or destination choice, motivating factors for tourism, personal characteristics or factors, destination characteristics and attractiveness, scope of the intended trip (holiday, size, distance, duration of the trip, etc., travel experiences (humor, feelings during the trip, post-purchase evaluations, etc., influence of the destination’s image, and influence of information/communication on the travel destination choice. The results also indicate a difference regarding the origin of the articles (countries/institution, authors, and theoretical references used in research related to the topic.

How robotics programs influence young women's career choices : a grounded theory model

Science.gov (United States)

Craig, Cecilia Dosh-Bluhm

The fields of engineering, computer science, and physics have a paucity of women despite decades of intervention by universities and organizations. Women's graduation rates in these fields continue to stagnate, posing a critical problem for society. This qualitative grounded theory (GT) study sought to understand how robotics programs influenced young women's career decisions and the program's effect on engineering, physics, and computer science career interests. To test this, a study was mounted to explore how the FIRST (For Inspiration and Recognition of Science and Technology) Robotics Competition (FRC) program influenced young women's college major and career choices. Career theories suggested that experiential programs coupled with supportive relationships strongly influence career decisions, especially for science, technology, engineering, and mathematics careers. The study explored how and when young women made career decisions and how the experiential program and! its mentors and role models influenced career choice. Online focus groups and interviews (online and face-to-face) with 10 female FRC alumnae and GT processes (inductive analysis, open coding, categorizations using mind maps and content clouds) were used to generate a general systems theory style model of the career decision process for these young women. The study identified gender stereotypes and other career obstacles for women. The study's conclusions include recommendations to foster connections to real-world challenges, to develop training programs for mentors, and to nurture social cohesion, a mostly untapped area. Implementing these recommendations could help grow a critical mass of women in engineering, physics, and computer science careers, a social change worth pursuing.

Influencing Mechanism of Potential Factors on Passengers’ Long-Distance Travel Mode Choices Based on Structural Equation Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yun Wang

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Understanding the public transportation users’ preferences to long-distance travel modes would contribute to reasonable developing policies and resource allocation. This paper aims to explore the influencing mechanism of potential factors on the long-distance travel mode choice. A survey was conducted to collect the data. The analysis of variance (ANOVA approach was applied to analyze the correlation relationship between potential factors and travel mode choice behavior. The results showed that, except gender, service demand for safety and departure time, all of the other factors significantly influenced the travel mode choice behavior. Specifically, passengers with higher education level and income level were more likely to choose high-speed railway (HSR and plane; passengers caring about travel expense were more likely to choose ordinary train, whereas plane and HSR may be chosen more by passengers caring more about comfort, punctuality and efficiency; the more passengers were satisfied with travel modes’ service performance, the more they would be likely to choose them; the most competitive distance ranges for coach, ordinary train, HSR and plane were below 500 km, 500–1000 km, 500–1500 km and over 1500 km, respectively. Besides, the structural equation modeling (SEM technique was applied to investigate the influencing mechanism of factors on the long-distance travel mode choice. The results revealed that travel distance was the most significant variable directly influencing passengers’ mode choices, followed by the service demand, performance evaluation, and personal attributes. Furthermore, personal attributes were verified to have an indirect effect on travel mode choice behavior by significantly affecting the service demand and performance evaluation.

Partner choice creates fairness in humans.

Science.gov (United States)

Debove, Stéphane; André, Jean-Baptiste; Baumard, Nicolas

2015-06-07

Many studies demonstrate that partner choice has played an important role in the evolution of human cooperation, but little work has tested its impact on the evolution of human fairness. In experiments involving divisions of money, people become either over-generous or over-selfish when they are in competition to be chosen as cooperative partners. Hence, it is difficult to see how partner choice could result in the evolution of fair, equal divisions. Here, we show that this puzzle can be solved if we consider the outside options on which partner choice operates. We conduct a behavioural experiment, run agent-based simulations and analyse a game-theoretic model to understand how outside options affect partner choice and fairness. All support the conclusion that partner choice leads to fairness only when individuals have equal outside options. We discuss how this condition has been met in our evolutionary history, and the implications of these findings for our understanding of other aspects of fairness less specific than preferences for equal divisions of resources. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Food choices in Ethiopia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bekele, Alemayehu Dekeba; Beuving, Joost; Ruben, Ruerd

2016-01-01

This article reports results from a framed market experiment conducted to examine whether milk choices are responsive to changes in the nutritional characteristics of milk products. Using a random-effect Tobit model, we analyzed experimental data collected from 160 participants in urban Ethiopia.

Electoral system, pesonal votes, and party choice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thomsen, Søren Risbjerg

Using local elections in Denmark as an example this paper shows that individual party choice is influenced both by individual level, municipality level, and national level characteristics. Some hypotheses about the effects of the electoral system on personal votes derived from a theory by Carey...... & Shugart (1995) are first tested using a fixed-effects model. The effect of the personal reputation of the candidates, measured by personal votes, on party choice is then tested using a multilevel multinomial logit model suggested by Rabe-Hesketh and Skrondal (2008). The paper shows that both the electoral...

Endogenous vehicle-type choices in a monocentric city

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kim, Jinwon

2012-01-01

inconvenience in the choice of vehicle sizes, and the resulting commuting cost is a function of residential density. This vehicle-type choice problem is embedded in an otherwise standardmonocentric city model. A convenience-related advantage in less-dense areas makes our bid–rent curve flatter than...

The Drift Diffusion Model can account for the accuracy and reaction time of value-based choices under high and low time pressure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Milica Milosavljevic

2010-10-01

Full Text Available An important open problem is how values are compared to make simple choices. A natural hypothesis is that the brain carries out the computations associated with the value comparisons in a manner consistent with the Drift Diffusion Model (DDM, since this model has been able to account for a large amount of data in other domains. We investigated the ability of four different versions of the DDM to explain the data in a real binary food choice task under conditions of high and low time pressure. We found that a seven-parameter version of the DDM can account for the choice and reaction time data with high-accuracy, in both the high and low time pressure conditions. The changes associated with the introduction of time pressure could be traced to changes in two key model parameters: the barrier height and the noise in the slope of the drift process.

Choice Shifts in Groups: A Decision-Theoretic Basis

OpenAIRE

Kfir Eliaz; Debraj Ray; Ronny Razin

2006-01-01

The phenomenon of choice shifts in group decision-making has received attention in the social psychology literature. Faced with a risky group decision, individuals appear to support more extreme choices relative to those they would make on their own. This paper demonstrates that from a decision-theoretic perspective, choice shifts are intimately connected to failures of expected utility theory. In the model studied here, the Allais paradox is equivalent to a well-studied configuration of choi...

Constructing Quality Adjusted Price Indexes: a Comparison of Hedonic and Discrete Choice Models

OpenAIRE

N. Jonker

2001-01-01

The Boskin report (1996) concluded that the US consumer price index (CPI) overestimated the inflation by 1.1 percentage points. This was due to several measurement errors in the CPI. One of them is called quality change bias. In this paper two methods are compared which can be used to eliminate quality change bias, namely the hedonic method and a method based on the use of discrete choice models. The underlying micro-economic fundations of the two methods are compared as well as their empiric...

Does a peer model's task proficiency influence children's solution choice and innovation?

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Lara A; Kendal, Rachel L; Flynn, Emma G

2015-11-01

The current study investigated whether 4- to 6-year-old children's task solution choice was influenced by the past proficiency of familiar peer models and the children's personal prior task experience. Peer past proficiency was established through behavioral assessments of interactions with novel tasks alongside peer and teacher predictions of each child's proficiency. Based on these assessments, one peer model with high past proficiency and one age-, sex-, dominance-, and popularity-matched peer model with lower past proficiency were trained to remove a capsule using alternative solutions from a three-solution artificial fruit task. Video demonstrations of the models were shown to children after they had either a personal successful interaction or no interaction with the task. In general, there was not a strong bias toward the high past-proficiency model, perhaps due to a motivation to acquire multiple methods and the salience of other transmission biases. However, there was some evidence of a model-based past-proficiency bias; when the high past-proficiency peer matched the participants' original solution, there was increased use of that solution, whereas if the high past-proficiency peer demonstrated an alternative solution, there was increased use of the alternative social solution and novel solutions. Thus, model proficiency influenced innovation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting Occupational Role Choices after Involuntary Job Loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Kinicki, Angelo J.

1989-01-01

Analyzed longitudinal data from 126 employees 1 month prior to being permanently displaced. Behavioral choice model significantly predicted behavioral intention to look for job, effort in looking, and actual behavior/role choice 18 months later. Expectancy for obtaining job was inversely related with age, positively related with education,…

The unified model of vegetarian identity: A conceptual framework for understanding plant-based food choices.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenfeld, Daniel L; Burrow, Anthony L

2017-05-01

By departing from social norms regarding food behaviors, vegetarians acquire membership in a distinct social group and can develop a salient vegetarian identity. However, vegetarian identities are diverse, multidimensional, and unique to each individual. Much research has identified fundamental psychological aspects of vegetarianism, and an identity framework that unifies these findings into common constructs and conceptually defines variables is needed. Integrating psychological theories of identity with research on food choices and vegetarianism, this paper proposes a conceptual model for studying vegetarianism: The Unified Model of Vegetarian Identity (UMVI). The UMVI encompasses ten dimensions-organized into three levels (contextual, internalized, and externalized)-that capture the role of vegetarianism in an individual's self-concept. Contextual dimensions situate vegetarianism within contexts; internalized dimensions outline self-evaluations; and externalized dimensions describe enactments of identity through behavior. Together, these dimensions form a coherent vegetarian identity, characterizing one's thoughts, feelings, and behaviors regarding being vegetarian. By unifying dimensions that capture psychological constructs universally, the UMVI can prevent discrepancies in operationalization, capture the inherent diversity of vegetarian identities, and enable future research to generate greater insight into how people understand themselves and their food choices. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Contextual and social influences on valuation and choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Engelmann, Jan B; Hein, Grit

2013-01-01

To survive in our complex environment, we have to adapt to changing contexts. Prior research that investigated how contextual changes are processed in the human brain has demonstrated important modulatory influences on multiple cognitive processes underlying decision-making, including perceptual judgments, working memory, as well as cognitive and attentional control. However, in everyday life, the importance of context is even more obvious during economic and social interactions, which often have implicit rule sets that need to be recognized by a decision-maker. Here, we review recent evidence from an increasing number of studies in the fields of Neuroeconomics and Social Neuroscience that investigate the neurobiological basis of contextual effects on valuation and social choice. Contrary to the assumptions of rational choice theory, multiple contextual factors, such as the availability of alternative choice options, shifts in reference point, and social context, have been shown to modulate behavior, as well as signals in task-relevant neural networks. A consistent picture that emerges from neurobiological results is that valuation-related activity in striatum and ventromedial prefrontal cortex is highly context dependent during both social and nonsocial choice. Alternative approaches to model and explain choice behavior, such as comparison-based choice models, as well as implications for future research are discussed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Not all choices are created equal: Task-relevant choices enhance motor learning compared to task-irrelevant choices.

Science.gov (United States)

Carter, Michael J; Ste-Marie, Diane M

2017-12-01

Lewthwaite et al. (2015) reported that the learning benefits of exercising choice (i.e., their self-controlled condition) are not restricted to task-relevant features (e.g., feedback). They found that choosing one's golf ball color (Exp. 1) or choosing which of two tasks to perform at a later time plus which of two artworks to hang (Exp. 2) resulted in better retention than did being denied these same choices (i.e., yoked condition). The researchers concluded that the learning benefits derived from choice, whether irrelevant or relevant to the to-be-learned task, are predominantly motivational because choice is intrinsically rewarding and satisfies basic psychological needs. However, the absence of a group that made task-relevant choices and the lack of psychological measures significantly weakened their conclusions. Here, we investigated how task-relevant and task-irrelevant choices affect motor-skill learning. Participants practiced a spatiotemporal motor task in either a task-relevant group (choice over feedback schedule), a task-irrelevant group (choice over the color of an arm-wrap plus game selection), or a no-choice group. The results showed significantly greater learning in the task-relevant group than in both the task-irrelevant and no-choice groups, who did not differ significantly. Critically, these learning differences were not attributed to differences in perceptions of competence or autonomy, but instead to superior error-estimation abilities. These results challenge the perspective that motivational influences are the root cause of self-controlled learning advantages. Instead, the findings add to the growing evidence highlighting that the informational value gained from task-relevant choices makes a greater relative contribution to these advantages than motivational influences do.

Shared decision making, paternalism and patient choice.

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Sandman, Lars; Munthe, Christian

2010-03-01

In patient centred care, shared decision making is a central feature and widely referred to as a norm for patient centred medical consultation. However, it is far from clear how to distinguish SDM from standard models and ideals for medical decision making, such as paternalism and patient choice, and e.g., whether paternalism and patient choice can involve a greater degree of the sort of sharing involved in SDM and still retain their essential features. In the article, different versions of SDM are explored, versions compatible with paternalism and patient choice as well as versions that go beyond these traditional decision making models. Whenever SDM is discussed or introduced it is of importance to be clear over which of these different versions are being pursued, since they connect to basic values and ideals of health care in different ways. It is further argued that we have reason to pursue versions of SDM involving, what is called, a high level dynamics in medical decision-making. This leaves four alternative models to choose between depending on how we balance between the values of patient best interest, patient autonomy, and an effective decision in terms of patient compliance or adherence: Shared Rational Deliberative Patient Choice, Shared Rational Deliberative Paternalism, Shared Rational Deliberative Joint Decision, and Professionally Driven Best Interest Compromise. In relation to these models it is argued that we ideally should use the Shared Rational Deliberative Joint Decision model. However, when the patient and professional fail to reach consensus we will have reason to pursue the Professionally Driven Best Interest Compromise model since this will best harmonise between the different values at stake: patient best interest, patient autonomy, patient adherence and a continued care relationship.

Commitment-based action: Rational choice theory and contrapreferential choice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radovanović Bojana

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper focuses on Sen’s concept of contrapreferential choice. Sen has developed this concept in order to overcome weaknesses of the rational choice theory. According to rational choice theory a decision-maker can be always seen as someone who maximises utility, and each choice he makes as the one that brings to him the highest level of personal wellbeing. Sen argues that in some situations we chose alternatives that bring us lower level of wellbeing than we could achieve if we had chosen some other alternative available to us. This happens when we base our decisions on moral principles, when we act out of duty. Sen calls such action a commitment-based action. When we act out of commitment we actually neglect our preferences and thus we make a contrapreferential choice, as Sen argues. This paper shows that, contrary to Sen, a commitment-based action can be explained within the framework of rational choice theory. However, when each choice we make can be explained within the framework of rational choice theory, when in everything we do maximisation principle can be loaded, then the variety of our motives and traits is lost, and the explanatory power of the rational choice theory is questionable. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 47009: Evropske integracije i društveno-ekonomske promene privrede Srbije na putu ka EU i br. 179015: Izazovi i perspektive strukturnih promena u Srbiji: Strateški pravci ekonomskog razvoja i usklađivanje sa zahtevima EU

ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brooker, A.; Gonder, J.; Lopp, S.; Ward, J.

2015-05-04

The Automotive Deployment Option Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a light-duty vehicle consumer choice and stock model supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. It estimates technology improvement impacts on U.S. light-duty vehicles sales, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas emissions. ADOPT uses techniques from the multinomial logit method and the mixed logit method estimate sales. Specifically, it estimates sales based on the weighted value of key attributes including vehicle price, fuel cost, acceleration, range and usable volume. The average importance of several attributes changes nonlinearly across its range and changes with income. For several attributes, a distribution of importance around the average value is used to represent consumer heterogeneity. The majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims are included to fully represent the market. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations are enforced. The sales feed into the ADOPT stock model. It captures key aspects for summing petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions This includes capturing the change in vehicle miles traveled by vehicle age, the creation of new model options based on the success of existing vehicles, new vehicle option introduction rate limits, and survival rates by vehicle age. ADOPT has been extensively validated with historical sales data. It matches in key dimensions including sales by fuel economy, acceleration, price, vehicle size class, and powertrain across multiple years. A graphical user interface provides easy and efficient use. It manages the inputs, simulation, and results.

Who is Afraid of School Choice?

OpenAIRE

Andrea Diem; Stefan C. Wolter

2011-01-01

This study uses survey data to investigate attitudes among Swiss voters to different models offering more freedom of choice in the educational system. The findings indicate clear opposition to the use of taxpayer money to fund private schools, while free choice between public schools seems to appeal to a majority. The analyses show that the approval-opposition heterogeneity is mainly based on an explicable, rational calculation of personal utility. Approval rates are much higher among groups ...

Choice Overload, Satisficing Behavior, and Price Distribution in a Time Allocation Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francisco Álvarez

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Recent psychological research indicates that consumers that search exhaustively for the best option of a market product—known as maximizers—eventually feel worse than consumers who just look for something good enough—called satisficers. We formulate a time allocation model to explore the relationship between different distributions of prices of the product and the satisficing behavior and the related welfare of the consumer. We show numerically that, as the number of options becomes large, the maximizing behavior produces less and less welfare and eventually leads to choice paralysis—these are effects of choice overload—whereas satisficing conducts entail higher levels of satisfaction and do not end up in paralysis. For different price distributions, we provide consistent evidence that maximizers are better off for a low number of options, whereas satisficers are better off for a sufficiently large number of options. We also show how the optimal satisficing behavior is affected when the underlying price distribution varies. We provide evidence that the mean and the dispersion of a symmetric distribution of prices—but not the shape of the distribution—condition the satisficing behavior of consumers. We also show that this need not be the case for asymmetric distributions.

Impact of implementation choices on quantitative predictions of cell-based computational models

Science.gov (United States)

Kursawe, Jochen; Baker, Ruth E.; Fletcher, Alexander G.

2017-09-01

'Cell-based' models provide a powerful computational tool for studying the mechanisms underlying the growth and dynamics of biological tissues in health and disease. An increasing amount of quantitative data with cellular resolution has paved the way for the quantitative parameterisation and validation of such models. However, the numerical implementation of cell-based models remains challenging, and little work has been done to understand to what extent implementation choices may influence model predictions. Here, we consider the numerical implementation of a popular class of cell-based models called vertex models, which are often used to study epithelial tissues. In two-dimensional vertex models, a tissue is approximated as a tessellation of polygons and the vertices of these polygons move due to mechanical forces originating from the cells. Such models have been used extensively to study the mechanical regulation of tissue topology in the literature. Here, we analyse how the model predictions may be affected by numerical parameters, such as the size of the time step, and non-physical model parameters, such as length thresholds for cell rearrangement. We find that vertex positions and summary statistics are sensitive to several of these implementation parameters. For example, the predicted tissue size decreases with decreasing cell cycle durations, and cell rearrangement may be suppressed by large time steps. These findings are counter-intuitive and illustrate that model predictions need to be thoroughly analysed and implementation details carefully considered when applying cell-based computational models in a quantitative setting.

Factors modulating social influence on spatial choice in rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Bisbing, Teagan A; Saxon, Marie; Sayde, Justin M; Brown, Michael F

2015-07-01

Three experiments examined the conditions under which the spatial choices of rats searching for food are influenced by the choices made by other rats. Model rats learned a consistent set of baited locations in a 5 × 5 matrix of locations, some of which contained food. In Experiment 1, subject rats could determine the baited locations after choosing 1 location because all of the baited locations were on the same side of the matrix during each trial (the baited side varied over trials). Under these conditions, the social cues provided by the model rats had little or no effect on the choices made by the subject rats. The lack of social influence on choices occurred despite a simultaneous social influence on rats' location in the testing arena (Experiment 2). When the outcome of the subject rats' own choices provided no information about the positions of other baited locations, on the other hand, social cues strongly controlled spatial choices (Experiment 3). These results indicate that social information about the location of food influences spatial choices only when those cues provide valid information that is not redundant with the information provided by other cues. This suggests that social information is learned about, processed, and controls behavior via the same mechanisms as other kinds of stimuli. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Context-dependent preferences in starlings: linking ecology, foraging and choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Vasconcelos, Marco; Monteiro, Tiago; Kacelnik, Alex

2013-01-01

Foraging animals typically encounter opportunities that they either pursue or skip, but occasionally meet several alternatives simultaneously. Behavioural ecologists predict preferences using absolute properties of each option, while decision theorists focus on relative evaluations at the time of choice. We use European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) to integrate ecological reasoning with decision models, linking and testing hypotheses for value acquisition and choice mechanism. We hypothesise that options' values depend jointly on absolute attributes, learning context, and subject's state. In simultaneous choices, preference could result either from comparing subjective values using deliberation time, or from processing each alternative independently, without relative comparisons. The combination of the value acquisition hypothesis and independent processing at choice time has been called the Sequential Choice Model. We test this model with options equated in absolute properties to exclude the possibility of preference being built at the time of choice. Starlings learned to obtain food by responding to four stimuli in two contexts. In context [AB], they encountered options A5 or B10 in random alternation; in context [CD], they met C10 or D20. Delay to food is denoted, in seconds, by the suffixes. Observed latency to respond (Li) to each option alone (our measure of value) ranked thus: LA≈LCchoice tests to predict sign and strength of preference in pairings. Starlings preferred A5 over C10 and C10 over B10. There was no detectable evaluation time, and preference magnitude was predictable from latency differentials. This implies that value reflects learning rather than choice context, that preferences are not constructed by relative judgements at the time of choice, and that mechanisms adapted for sequential decisions are effective to predict choice behaviour.

A comparison of methods for representing random taste heterogeneity in discrete choice models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosgerau, Mogens; Hess, Stephane

2009-01-01

This paper reports the findings of a systematic study using Monte Carlo experiments and a real dataset aimed at comparing the performance of various ways of specifying random taste heterogeneity in a discrete choice model. Specifically, the analysis compares the performance of two recent advanced...... distributions. Both approaches allow the researcher to increase the number of parameters as desired. The paper provides a range of evidence on the ability of the various approaches to recover various distributions from data. The two advanced approaches are comparable in terms of the likelihoods achieved...

Modeling bistable cell-fate choices in the Drosophila eye: qualitative and quantitative perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Graham, Thomas G. W.; Tabei, S. M. Ali; Dinner, Aaron R.; Rebay, Ilaria

2010-01-01

A major goal of developmental biology is to understand the molecular mechanisms whereby genetic signaling networks establish and maintain distinct cell types within multicellular organisms. Here, we review cell-fate decisions in the developing eye of Drosophila melanogaster and the experimental results that have revealed the topology of the underlying signaling circuitries. We then propose that switch-like network motifs based on positive feedback play a central role in cell-fate choice, and discuss how mathematical modeling can be used to understand and predict the bistable or multistable behavior of such networks. PMID:20570936

Dynamic Choice Behavior in a Natural Experiment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Steffen; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten

evidence of some probability weighting, but no loss aversion. We also find evidence that contestants make decisions as if using more than one latent criteria, mixing traditional utility evaluations, probability weighting, and aspiration levels. Fourth, we design and implement laboratory experiments...... linked to current choices. We have four major findings. First, we show that popular utility functions that assume constant relative or absolute risk aversion and expected utility theory defined over the prizes cannot characterize these choices, which exhibit increasing relative risk aversion over prizes...... the income that they bring to the game show. Allowing for this integration of income and game show prizes leads to choice behavior consistent with constant relative risk aversion. Third, we examine th e effects of allowing contestants to make choices characterized by non-standard decision models. We find...

The Effects of the Previous Outcome on Probabilistic Choice in Rats

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, Andrew T.; Kirkpatrick, Kimberly

2014-01-01

This study examined the effects of previous outcomes on subsequent choices in a probabilistic-choice task. Twenty-four rats were trained to choose between a certain outcome (1 or 3 pellets) versus an uncertain outcome (3 or 9 pellets), delivered with a probability of .1, .33, .67, and .9 in different phases. Uncertain outcome choices increased with the probability of uncertain food. Additionally, uncertain choices increased with the probability of uncertain food following both certain-choice outcomes and unrewarded uncertain choices. However, following uncertain-choice food outcomes, there was a tendency to choose the uncertain outcome in all cases, indicating that the rats continued to “gamble” after successful uncertain choices, regardless of the overall probability or magnitude of food. A subsequent manipulation, in which the probability of uncertain food varied within each session as a function of the previous uncertain outcome, examined how the previous outcome and probability of uncertain food affected choice in a dynamic environment. Uncertain-choice behavior increased with the probability of uncertain food. The rats exhibited increased sensitivity to probability changes and a greater degree of win–stay/lose–shift behavior than in the static phase. Simulations of two sequential choice models were performed to explore the possible mechanisms of reward value computations. The simulation results supported an exponentially decaying value function that updated as a function of trial (rather than time). These results emphasize the importance of analyzing global and local factors in choice behavior and suggest avenues for the future development of sequential-choice models. PMID:23205915

College-"Conocimiento": Toward an Interdisciplinary College Choice Framework for Latinx Students

Science.gov (United States)

Acevedo-Gil, Nancy

2017-01-01

This paper builds upon Perna's college choice model by integrating Anzaldúa's theory of "conocimiento" to propose an interdisciplinary college choice framework for Latinx students. Using previous literature, this paper proposes college-"conocimiento" as a framework that contextualizes Latinx student college choices within the…

A new model to understand the career choice and practice location decisions of medical graduates.

Science.gov (United States)

Stagg, P; Greenhill, J; Worley, P S

2009-01-01

places is influencing both urban- and rural-origin graduates to practise in urban locations. Further analysis of graduates' career pathway choices (rural or urban) and geographic background (rural or urban) was conducted. This resulted in the development of a new model, 'The Four Qs Model'. This model consists of four quadrants derived from the variables career pathway choice (rural or urban) and geographic background (rural or urban). Clustering of consistent demographic and qualitative trends unique to each quadrant was demonstrated. The distinctive clustering that emerged from the data resulted in the quadrants being renamed 'The True Believers', 'The Convertibles' 'The Frustrated' and 'The Metro Docs'. The PRCC is influencing graduates to choose a rural career path. The PRCC program affirms the career preferences of rural origin students while graduates with little rural exposure prior to the PRCC report being positively influenced to pursue a rural career path. The Four Qs Model is a useful model in that it demonstrates consistent themes in the characteristics of PRCC graduates and assists understanding of why they choose a rural medical career. This could be relevant to the selection of medical students into rural medical education programs and in the construction of rural curricula. The model also offers a useful framework for further research in this field.

The Neural Basis of Risky Choice with Affective Outcomes

Science.gov (United States)

Suter, Renata S.; Pachur, Thorsten; Hertwig, Ralph; Endestad, Tor; Biele, Guido

2015-01-01

Both normative and many descriptive theories of decision making under risk are based on the notion that outcomes are weighted by their probability, with subsequent maximization of the (subjective) expected outcome. Numerous investigations from psychology, economics, and neuroscience have produced evidence consistent with this notion. However, this research has typically investigated choices involving relatively affect-poor, monetary outcomes. We compared choice in relatively affect-poor, monetary lottery problems with choice in relatively affect-rich medical decision problems. Computational modeling of behavioral data and model-based neuroimaging analyses provide converging evidence for substantial differences in the respective decision mechanisms. Relative to affect-poor choices, affect-rich choices yielded a more strongly curved probability weighting function of cumulative prospect theory, thus signaling that the psychological impact of probabilities is strongly diminished for affect-rich outcomes. Examining task-dependent brain activation, we identified a region-by-condition interaction indicating qualitative differences of activation between affect-rich and affect-poor choices. Moreover, brain activation in regions that were more active during affect-poor choices (e.g., the supramarginal gyrus) correlated with individual trial-by-trial decision weights, indicating that these regions reflect processing of probabilities. Formal reverse inference Neurosynth meta-analyses suggested that whereas affect-poor choices seem to be based on brain mechanisms for calculative processes, affect-rich choices are driven by the representation of outcomes’ emotional value and autobiographical memories associated with them. These results provide evidence that the traditional notion of expectation maximization may not apply in the context of outcomes laden with affective responses, and that understanding the brain mechanisms of decision making requires the domain of the decision

The neural basis of risky choice with affective outcomes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Renata S Suter

Full Text Available Both normative and many descriptive theories of decision making under risk are based on the notion that outcomes are weighted by their probability, with subsequent maximization of the (subjective expected outcome. Numerous investigations from psychology, economics, and neuroscience have produced evidence consistent with this notion. However, this research has typically investigated choices involving relatively affect-poor, monetary outcomes. We compared choice in relatively affect-poor, monetary lottery problems with choice in relatively affect-rich medical decision problems. Computational modeling of behavioral data and model-based neuroimaging analyses provide converging evidence for substantial differences in the respective decision mechanisms. Relative to affect-poor choices, affect-rich choices yielded a more strongly curved probability weighting function of cumulative prospect theory, thus signaling that the psychological impact of probabilities is strongly diminished for affect-rich outcomes. Examining task-dependent brain activation, we identified a region-by-condition interaction indicating qualitative differences of activation between affect-rich and affect-poor choices. Moreover, brain activation in regions that were more active during affect-poor choices (e.g., the supramarginal gyrus correlated with individual trial-by-trial decision weights, indicating that these regions reflect processing of probabilities. Formal reverse inference Neurosynth meta-analyses suggested that whereas affect-poor choices seem to be based on brain mechanisms for calculative processes, affect-rich choices are driven by the representation of outcomes' emotional value and autobiographical memories associated with them. These results provide evidence that the traditional notion of expectation maximization may not apply in the context of outcomes laden with affective responses, and that understanding the brain mechanisms of decision making requires the domain

The neural basis of risky choice with affective outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Suter, Renata S; Pachur, Thorsten; Hertwig, Ralph; Endestad, Tor; Biele, Guido

2015-01-01

Both normative and many descriptive theories of decision making under risk are based on the notion that outcomes are weighted by their probability, with subsequent maximization of the (subjective) expected outcome. Numerous investigations from psychology, economics, and neuroscience have produced evidence consistent with this notion. However, this research has typically investigated choices involving relatively affect-poor, monetary outcomes. We compared choice in relatively affect-poor, monetary lottery problems with choice in relatively affect-rich medical decision problems. Computational modeling of behavioral data and model-based neuroimaging analyses provide converging evidence for substantial differences in the respective decision mechanisms. Relative to affect-poor choices, affect-rich choices yielded a more strongly curved probability weighting function of cumulative prospect theory, thus signaling that the psychological impact of probabilities is strongly diminished for affect-rich outcomes. Examining task-dependent brain activation, we identified a region-by-condition interaction indicating qualitative differences of activation between affect-rich and affect-poor choices. Moreover, brain activation in regions that were more active during affect-poor choices (e.g., the supramarginal gyrus) correlated with individual trial-by-trial decision weights, indicating that these regions reflect processing of probabilities. Formal reverse inference Neurosynth meta-analyses suggested that whereas affect-poor choices seem to be based on brain mechanisms for calculative processes, affect-rich choices are driven by the representation of outcomes' emotional value and autobiographical memories associated with them. These results provide evidence that the traditional notion of expectation maximization may not apply in the context of outcomes laden with affective responses, and that understanding the brain mechanisms of decision making requires the domain of the decision to

SEXUAL SELECTION. Irrationality in mate choice revealed by túngara frogs.

Science.gov (United States)

Lea, Amanda M; Ryan, Michael J

2015-08-28

Mate choice models derive from traditional microeconomic decision theory and assume that individuals maximize their Darwinian fitness by making economically rational decisions. Rational choices exhibit regularity, whereby the relative strength of preferences between options remains stable when additional options are presented. We tested female frogs with three simulated males who differed in relative call attractiveness and call rate. In binary choice tests, females' preferences favored stimulus caller B over caller A; however, with the addition of an inferior "decoy" C, females reversed their preferences and chose A over B. These results show that the relative valuation of mates is not independent of inferior alternatives in the choice set and therefore cannot be explained with the rational choice models currently used in sexual selection theory. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Cultures of choice: towards a sociology of choice as a cultural phenomenon.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwarz, Ori

2017-09-07

The article explores different ways to conceptualize the relationship between choice and culture. These two notions are often constructed as opposites: while sociologies of modernization (such as Giddens') portray a shift from cultural traditions to culturally disembedded choice, dispositional sociologies (such as Bourdieu's) uncover cultural determination as the hidden truth behind apparent choice. However, choice may be real and cultural simultaneously. Culture moulds choice not only by inculcating dispositions or shaping repertoires of alternatives, but also by offering culturally specific choice practices, ways of choosing embedded in meaning, normativity, and materiality; and by shaping attributions of choice in everyday life. By bringing together insights from rival schools, I portray an outline for a comparative cultural sociology of choice, and demonstrate its purchase while discussing the digitalization of choice; and cultural logics that shape choice attribution in ways opposing neoliberal trends. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2017.

An Economic Analysis of Identity and Career Choice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Humlum, Maria Knoth; Kleinjans, Kristin J.; Nielsen, Helena Skyt

2007-01-01

Standard economic models which focus on pecuniary payoffs cannot explain why there are highly able individuals who choose careers with low pecuniary re- turns. Therefore, financial incentives are unlikely to be effective in influencing career choices of these individuals. Based on Akerlof...... and Kranton (2000), we con- sider a model of career choice and identity where individuals derive non-pecuniary identity payoffs. Using factor analysis on a range of attitude questions, we find two factors related to identity (career orientation and social orientation), which are important for educational...... choices. The implication is that policymakers and institutions of higher education need to focus on identity related issues rather than just improved financial incentives if they aim at attracting the high ability youth to occupations with excess demand for labor....

A two-layered diffusion model traces the dynamics of information processing in the valuation-and-choice circuit of decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Piu, Pietro; Fargnoli, Francesco; Innocenti, Alessandro; Rufa, Alessandra

2014-01-01

A circuit of evaluation and selection of the alternatives is considered a reliable model in neurobiology. The prominent contributions of the literature to this topic are reported. In this study, valuation and choice of a decisional process during Two-Alternative Forced-Choice (TAFC) task are represented as a two-layered network of computational cells, where information accrual and processing progress in nonlinear diffusion dynamics. The evolution of the response-to-stimulus map is thus modeled by two linked diffusive modules (2LDM) representing the neuronal populations involved in the valuation-and-decision circuit of decision making. Diffusion models are naturally appropriate for describing accumulation of evidence over the time. This allows the computation of the response times (RTs) in valuation and choice, under the hypothesis of ex-Wald distribution. A nonlinear transfer function integrates the activities of the two layers. The input-output map based on the infomax principle makes the 2LDM consistent with the reinforcement learning approach. Results from simulated likelihood time series indicate that 2LDM may account for the activity-dependent modulatory component of effective connectivity between the neuronal populations. Rhythmic fluctuations of the estimate gain functions in the delta-beta bands also support the compatibility of 2LDM with the neurobiology of DM.

Departure time choice: Modelling individual preferences, intention and constraints

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorhauge, Mikkel

by nearly all studies within departure time. More importantly it shows that the underlying psychological processes are more complex than simply accounting for attitudes and perceptions which are typically used in other areas. The work in this PhD thesis accounts for the full Theory of Planned Behaviour......, but can also be perceived by the individuals as barriers towards participating in activities. Perceived constraints affect the departure time choice through the individual intention of being on time. This PhD thesis also contributes to the departure time literature by discussing the problem of collecting...... whether they are constrained. The thesis also provides empirical evidences of the policy implication of not accounting for other activities and their constraints. Thirdly, the thesis shows that the departure time choice can be partly explained by psychological factors, which have previously been neglected...

How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars. Part 1. Model structure, simulation of bounded rationality, and model validation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mueller, Michel G.; Haan, Peter de [ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Natural and Social Science Interface, Universitaetstr. 22, CHN J 73.2, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland)

2009-03-15

This article presents an agent-based microsimulation capable of forecasting the effects of policy levers that influence individual choices of new passenger cars. The fundamental decision-making units are households distinguished by sociodemographic characteristics and car ownership. A two-stage model of individual decision processes is employed. In the first stage, individual choice sets are constructed using simple, non-compensatory rules that are based on previously owned cars. Second, decision makers evaluate alternatives in their individual choice set using a multi-attributive weighting rule. The attribute weights are based on a multinomial logit model for cross-country policy analysis in European countries. Additionally, prospect theory and the notion of mental accounting are used to model the perception of monetary values. The microsimulation forecasts actual market observations with high accuracy, both on the level of aggregate market characteristics as well as on a highly resolved level of distributions of market shares. The presented approach is useful for the assessment of policies that influence individual purchase decisions of new passenger cars; it allows accounting for a highly resolved car fleet and differentiated consumer segments. As a result, the complexity of incentive schemes can be represented and detailed structural changes can be investigated. (author)

How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars-Part I: Model structure, simulation of bounded rationality, and model validation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mueller, Michel G. [ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Natural and Social Science Interface, Universitaetstr. 22, CHN J 73.2, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland); Haan, Peter de [ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Natural and Social Science Interface, Universitaetstr. 22, CHN J 73.2, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland)], E-mail: peter.dehaan@env.ethz.ch

2009-03-15

This article presents an agent-based microsimulation capable of forecasting the effects of policy levers that influence individual choices of new passenger cars. The fundamental decision-making units are households distinguished by sociodemographic characteristics and car ownership. A two-stage model of individual decision processes is employed. In the first stage, individual choice sets are constructed using simple, non-compensatory rules that are based on previously owned cars. Second, decision makers evaluate alternatives in their individual choice set using a multi-attributive weighting rule. The attribute weights are based on a multinomial logit model for cross-country policy analysis in European countries. Additionally, prospect theory and the notion of mental accounting are used to model the perception of monetary values. The microsimulation forecasts actual market observations with high accuracy, both on the level of aggregate market characteristics as well as on a highly resolved level of distributions of market shares. The presented approach is useful for the assessment of policies that influence individual purchase decisions of new passenger cars; it allows accounting for a highly resolved car fleet and differentiated consumer segments. As a result, the complexity of incentive schemes can be represented and detailed structural changes can be investigated.

How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars-Part I: Model structure, simulation of bounded rationality, and model validation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller, Michel G.; Haan, Peter de

2009-01-01

This article presents an agent-based microsimulation capable of forecasting the effects of policy levers that influence individual choices of new passenger cars. The fundamental decision-making units are households distinguished by sociodemographic characteristics and car ownership. A two-stage model of individual decision processes is employed. In the first stage, individual choice sets are constructed using simple, non-compensatory rules that are based on previously owned cars. Second, decision makers evaluate alternatives in their individual choice set using a multi-attributive weighting rule. The attribute weights are based on a multinomial logit model for cross-country policy analysis in European countries. Additionally, prospect theory and the notion of mental accounting are used to model the perception of monetary values. The microsimulation forecasts actual market observations with high accuracy, both on the level of aggregate market characteristics as well as on a highly resolved level of distributions of market shares. The presented approach is useful for the assessment of policies that influence individual purchase decisions of new passenger cars; it allows accounting for a highly resolved car fleet and differentiated consumer segments. As a result, the complexity of incentive schemes can be represented and detailed structural changes can be investigated

Illustrative comparison of one utility's coal and nuclear choices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keeney, R.L.; Sicherman, A.

1983-01-01

The technology choices facing an individual utility are complex decision problems. The paper illustrates a method designed to assist an individual utility company in making the choices in a logically consisnt manner. The resulting evaluation model, based on the principles of decision analysis, explicitly addresses the complexity to provide a basis for decision making and support for defending the decision before reviewers. The model, which incorporates economic, environmental, social, safety, and regulatory effects, is demonstrated using a coal/nuclear choice which may be faced by Utah Power and Light Company in the near future. This analysis is meant to be illustrative; more effort would be needed to gather information to support a policy decision

Deduction of passengers' route choices from smart card data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Hurk, E.; Kroon, L.G.; Maroti, G.; Vervest, P.

2015-01-01

Deducing passengers' route choices from smart card data provides public transport operators the opportunity to evaluate and improve their passenger service. Particularly in the case of disruptions, when traditional route choice models may not be valid, this is an advantage. This paper proposes a

Action and valence modulate choice and choice-induced preference change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raphael Koster

Full Text Available Choices are not only communicated via explicit actions but also passively through inaction. In this study we investigated how active or passive choice impacts upon the choice process itself as well as a preference change induced by choice. Subjects were tasked to select a preference for unfamiliar photographs by action or inaction, before and after they gave valuation ratings for all photographs. We replicate a finding that valuation increases for chosen items and decreases for unchosen items compared to a control condition in which the choice was made post re-evaluation. Whether choice was expressed actively or passively affected the dynamics of revaluation differently for positive and negatively valenced items. Additionally, the choice itself was biased towards action such that subjects tended to choose a photograph obtained by action more often than a photographed obtained through inaction. These results highlight intrinsic biases consistent with a tight coupling of action and reward and add to an emerging understanding of how the mode of action itself, and not just an associated outcome, modulates the decision making process.

On synchronous parallel computations with independent probabilistic choice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reif, J.H.

1984-01-01

This paper introduces probabilistic choice to synchronous parallel machine models; in particular parallel RAMs. The power of probabilistic choice in parallel computations is illustrate by parallelizing some known probabilistic sequential algorithms. The authors characterize the computational complexity of time, space, and processor bounded probabilistic parallel RAMs in terms of the computational complexity of probabilistic sequential RAMs. They show that parallelism uniformly speeds up time bounded probabilistic sequential RAM computations by nearly a quadratic factor. They also show that probabilistic choice can be eliminated from parallel computations by introducing nonuniformity

Social modeling of eating: a review of when and why social influence affects food intake and choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Cruwys, Tegan; Bevelander, Kirsten E; Hermans, Roel C J

2015-03-01

A major determinant of human eating behavior is social modeling, whereby people use others' eating as a guide for what and how much to eat. We review the experimental studies that have independently manipulated the eating behavior of a social referent (either through a live confederate or remotely) and measured either food choice or intake. Sixty-nine eligible experiments (with over 5800 participants) were identified that were published between 1974 and 2014. Speaking to the robustness of the modeling phenomenon, 64 of these studies have found a statistically significant modeling effect, despite substantial diversity in methodology, food type, social context and participant demographics. In reviewing the key findings from these studies, we conclude that there is limited evidence for a moderating effect of hunger, personality, age, weight or the presence of others (i.e., where the confederate is live vs. remote). There is inconclusive evidence for whether sex, attention, impulsivity and eating goals moderate modeling, and for whether modeling of food choice is as strong as modeling of food intake. Effects with substantial evidence were: modeling is increased when individuals desire to affiliate with the model, or perceive themselves to be similar to the model; modeling is attenuated (but still significant) for healthy-snack foods and meals such as breakfast and lunch, and modeling is at least partially mediated through behavioral mimicry, which occurs without conscious awareness. We discuss evidence suggesting that modeling is motivated by goals of both affiliation and uncertainty-reduction, and outline how these might be theoretically integrated. Finally, we argue for the importance of taking modeling beyond the laboratory and bringing it to bear on the important societal challenges of obesity and disordered eating. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Suboptimal choice, reward-predictive signals, and temporal information.

Science.gov (United States)

Cunningham, Paul J; Shahan, Timothy A

2018-01-01

Suboptimal choice refers to preference for an alternative offering a low probability of food (suboptimal alternative) over an alternative offering a higher probability of food (optimal alternative). Numerous studies have found that stimuli signaling probabilistic food play a critical role in the development and maintenance of suboptimal choice. However, there is still much debate about how to characterize how these stimuli influence suboptimal choice. There is substantial evidence that the temporal information conveyed by a food-predictive signal governs its function as both a Pavlovian conditioned stimulus and as an instrumental conditioned reinforcer. Thus, we explore the possibility that food-predictive signals influence suboptimal choice via the temporal information they convey. Application of this temporal information-theoretic approach to suboptimal choice provides a formal, quantitative framework that describes how food-predictive signals influence suboptimal choice in a manner consistent with related phenomena in Pavlovian conditioning and conditioned reinforcement. Our reanalysis of previous data on suboptimal choice suggests that, generally speaking, preference in the suboptimal choice procedure tracks relative temporal information conveyed by food-predictive signals for the suboptimal and optimal alternatives. The model suggests that suboptimal choice develops when the food-predictive signal for the suboptimal alternative conveys more temporal information than that for the optimal alternative. Finally, incorporating a role for competition between temporal information provided by food-predictive signals and relative primary reinforcement rate provides a reasonable account of existing data on suboptimal choice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Modeling issues & choices in the data mining optimization ontology

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Keet, CM

2013-05-01

Full Text Available We describe the Data Mining Optimization Ontology (DMOP), which was developed to support informed decision-making at various choice points of the knowledge discovery (KD) process. It can be used as a reference by data miners, but its primary purpose...

How Domain-General and Domain-Specific Knowledge Interact to Produce Strategy Choices.

Science.gov (United States)

Siegler, Robert S.

1989-01-01

Reviews evidence that children use diverse cognitive strategies; discusses the adaptive value of using diverse strategies; describes models of strategy choice based on rational calculations; and presents an overview of the distributions of associations model of children's strategy choice. (RH)

Mathematical models, rational choice, and the search for Cold War culture.

Science.gov (United States)

Erickson, Paul

2010-06-01

A key feature of the social, behavioral, and biological sciences after World War II has been the widespread adoption of new mathematical techniques drawn from cybernetics, information theory, and theories of rational choice. Historians of science have typically sought to explain this adoption either by reference to military patronage, or to a characteristic Cold War culture or discursive framework strongly shaped by the concerns of national security. This essay explores several episodes in the history of game theory--a mathematical theory of rational choice--that demonstrate the limits of such explanations. Military funding was indeed critical to game theory's early development in the 1940s. However, the theory's subsequent spread across disciplines ranging from political science to evolutionary biology was the result of a diverse collection of debates about the nature of "rationality" and "choice" that marked the Cold War era. These debates are not easily reduced to the national security imperatives that have been the focus of much historiography to date.

Deduction of passengers' route choice from smart card data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van Der Hurk, Evelien; Kroon, Leo; Maroti, Gabor; Vervest, Peter

2013-01-01

Deducing passengers' route choice from smart card data provides public transport operators the opportunity to evaluate passenger service. Especially in case of disruptions when route choice models may not be valid this is an advantage. This paper proposes a method for deducing the chosen route of

Modeling individual and collective opinion in online social networks: drivers of choice behavior and effects of marketing interventions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koster, S.E.; Langley, D.J.

2013-01-01

We investigate factors influencing choice behavior in online social networks. We use twitter data from a Dutch television talent show. In study one, we implement a nested conditional logit model with latent classes. We find heterogeneous effects. For two latent classes, cognitive factors most

Mode choice endogeneity in value of travel time estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mabit, Stefan Lindhard; Fosgerau, Mogens

The current way to estimate value of travel time is to use a mode-specific sample and hence to estimate mode-specific value of travel times. This approach raises certain questions concerning how to generalise the values to a population. A problem would be if there is an uncontrolled sample...... selection mechanism. This is the case if there is correlation between mode choice and the value of travel time that is not controlled for by explanatory variables. What could confuse the estimated values is the difficulty to separate mode effects from user effect. An example would be the effect of income...... of travel time we use a stated choice dataset. These data include binary choice within mode for car and bus. The first approach is to use a probit model to model mode choice using instruments and then use this in the estimation of the value of travel time. The second approach is based on the use of a very...

Informed Food Choice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Coff, Christian

2014-01-01

of informed food choice. An informed food choice is an enlightened food choice made by the individual based on the information made available. Food choices are made when shopping for food or when eating/drinking, and information is believed to give clarity to the options by increasing market transparency......Food production and consumption influence health, the environment, social structures, etc. For this reason consumers are increasingly interested in information about these effects. Disclosure of information about the consequences of food production and consumption is essential for the idea......, supporting rationality (the best choice), consumers’ self-governance (autonomy) and life coherence (integrity). On a practical level, informed food choice remains an ideal to strive for, as information on food often is inadequate....

Does health affect portfolio choice?

Science.gov (United States)

Love, David A; Smith, Paul A

2010-12-01

A number of recent studies find that poor health is empirically associated with a safer portfolio allocation. It is difficult to say, however, whether this relationship is truly causal. Both health status and portfolio choice are influenced by unobserved characteristics such as risk attitudes, impatience, information, and motivation, and these unobserved factors, if not adequately controlled for, can induce significant bias in the estimates of asset demand equations. Using the 1992-2006 waves of the Health and Retirement Study, we investigate how much of the connection between health and portfolio choice is causal and how much is due to the effects of unobserved heterogeneity. Accounting for unobserved heterogeneity with fixed effects and correlated random effects models, we find that health does not appear to significantly affect portfolio choice among single households. For married households, we find a small effect (about 2-3 percentage points) from being in the lowest of five self-reported health categories. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A decision network account of reasoning about other people's choices

Science.gov (United States)

Jern, Alan; Kemp, Charles

2015-01-01

The ability to predict and reason about other people's choices is fundamental to social interaction. We propose that people reason about other people's choices using mental models that are similar to decision networks. Decision networks are extensions of Bayesian networks that incorporate the idea that choices are made in order to achieve goals. In our first experiment, we explore how people predict the choices of others. Our remaining three experiments explore how people infer the goals and knowledge of others by observing the choices that they make. We show that decision networks account for our data better than alternative computational accounts that do not incorporate the notion of goal-directed choice or that do not rely on probabilistic inference. PMID:26010559

Don’t Work, Work at Home, or Commute? Discrete Choice Models of the Decision for San Francisco Bay Area Residents

OpenAIRE

Ory, D T; Mokhtarian, Patricia L

2005-01-01

Using socio-demographic, personality, and attitudinal data from 1,680 residents of the San Francisco Bay Area, we develop and estimate binary, multinomial, and nested logit models of the choice to work or not, whether or not to work at home, and whether to commute all of the time or some of the time (either by only working part time, or by working a compressed work week, or by telecommuting some of the time). To our knowledge, these are the first models of all these choices simultaneously. Th...

The Role of Preference Axioms and Respondent Behaviour in Statistical Models for Discrete Choice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hougaard, Jens Leth; Tjur, Tue; Østerdal, Lars Peter

Discrete choice experiments are widely used in relation to healthcare. A stream of recent literature therefore aims at testing the validityof the underlying preference axioms of completeness and transitivity,and detecting other preference phenomena such as unstability, learn-ing/tiredness effects......, ordering effects, dominance, etc. Unfortunatelythere seems to be some confusion about what is actually being tested,and the link between the statistical tests performed and the relevantunderlying model of respondent behaviour has not been explored inthis literature. The present paper tries to clarify...

Do Choice Experiments Generate Reliable Willingness to Pay Estimates Theory and Experimental Evidence

Science.gov (United States)

2015-01-01

the sample if they regard the price vector as high relative to the utility of non-status quo choices. Thus, the mathematics of combinatorial choice...option with the same attributes appearing in a choice set at a higher price , or an option with the same price but worse attributes appearing in the...25 of subjects making binary choices between alternative snack foods is consistent with an optimizing model of choice with error. Such choice errors

Generation and quality assessment of route choice sets in public transport networks by means of RP data analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Marie Karen; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

2010-01-01

Literature in route choice modelling shows that a lot of attention has been devoted to route choices of car drivers, but much less attention has been dedicated to route choices of public transport users. As modelling route choice behaviour consists of generating relevant routes and estimating...... discrete choice models, this paper focuses on the issue of choice set generation in public transport networks. Specifically, this paper describes the generation of choice sets for users of the Greater Copenhagen public transport system by applying a doubly stochastic path generation algorithm...

Grading School Choice: Evaluating School Choice Programs by the Friedman Gold Standard. School Choice Issues in Depth

Science.gov (United States)

Enlow, Robert C.

2008-01-01

In 2004, The Friedman Foundation for Educational Choice published a report titled "Grading Vouchers: Ranking America's School Choice Programs." Its purpose was to measure every existing school choice program against the gold standard set by Milton and Rose Friedman: that the most effective way to improve K-12 education and thus ensure a stable…

Latent factors and route choice behaviour

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Prato, Carlo Giacomo

. A reliable dataset was prepared through measures of internal consistency and sampling adequacy, and data were analyzed with a proper application of factor analysis to the route choice context. For the dataset obtained from the survey, six latent constructs affecting driver behaviour were extracted and scores...... on each factor for each survey participant were calculated. Path generation algorithms were examined with respect to observed behaviour, through a measure of reproduction with deterministic techniques of the routes indicated in the answers to the survey. Results presented evidence that the majority...... and Link Nested Logit. Estimates were produced from model specifications that considered level-of-service, label and facility dummy variables. Moreover, a modelling framework was designed to represent drivers’ choices as affected by the latent constructs extracted with factor analysis. Previous experience...

Food Choice Architecture: An Intervention in a Secondary School and its Impact on Students’ Plant-based Food Choices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hannah Ensaff

2015-06-01

Full Text Available With growing evidence for the positive health outcomes associated with a plant-based diet, the study’s purpose was to examine the potential of shifting adolescents’ food choices towards plant-based foods. Using a real world setting of a school canteen, a set of small changes to the choice architecture was designed and deployed in a secondary school in Yorkshire, England. Focussing on designated food items (whole fruit, fruit salad, vegetarian daily specials, and sandwiches containing salad the changes were implemented for six weeks. Data collected on students’ food choice (218,796 transactions enabled students’ (980 students selections to be examined. Students’ food choice was compared for three periods: baseline (29 weeks; intervention (six weeks; and post-intervention (three weeks. Selection of designated food items significantly increased during the intervention and post-intervention periods, compared to baseline (baseline, 1.4%; intervention 3.0%; post-intervention, 2.2% χ2(2 = 68.1, p < 0.001. Logistic regression modelling also revealed the independent effect of the intervention, with students 2.5 times as likely (p < 0.001 to select the designated food items during the intervention period, compared to baseline. The study’s results point to the influence of choice architecture within secondary school settings, and its potential role in improving adolescents’ daily food choices.

Explaining Choice and Share of Category Requirements of Biologic Meat

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P.C. Verhoef (Peter); K. Vlagsma-Brangule (Kristine)

2003-01-01

textabstractIn this paper we examine factors determining choice and consumption of biologic or organic meat. In our model explaining choice and share of category requirements, we consider economic/marketing variables (quality, price, and distribution), emotions (fear, empathy, andguilt), social

The dynamics of decision making in risky choice: An Eye-tracking Analysis

OpenAIRE

Susann eFiedler; Andreas eGlöckner

2012-01-01

In the last years, research on risky choice has moved beyond analyzing choices only. Models have been suggested that aim to describe the underlying cognitive processes and some studies have tested process predictions of these models. Prominent approaches are evidence accumulation models such as decision field theory (DFT), simple serial heuristic models such as the adaptive toolbox, and connectionist approaches such as the parallel constraint satisfaction (PCS) model. In two studies involving...

FUNGIBILITY AND CONSUMER CHOICE: EVIDENCE FROM COMMODITY PRICE SHOCKS*

OpenAIRE

Hastings, Justine S.; Shapiro, Jesse M.

2013-01-01

We formulate a test of the fungibility of money based on parallel shifts in the prices of different quality grades of a commodity. We embed the test in a discrete-choice model of product quality choice and estimate the model using panel microdata on gasoline purchases. We find that when gasoline prices rise, consumers substitute to lower octane gasoline, to an extent that cannot be explained by income effects. Across a wide range of specifications, we consistently reject the null hypothesis t...

Anxiety and Search during Food Choice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Torben; Uth Thomsen, Thyra; Mukherjee, Ashkesh

2011-01-01

this type of condensed information will in fact motivate extended information search. Originality/value – This paper contributes to research in marketing on food choice and consumption: a consumption area that is important but difficult to navigate due to an increasing complexity of nutritional information......Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the effect of anxiety on information search during food choice and to test a key moderator of the effect of anxiety on search, namely attitude towards nutritional claims. Design/methodology/approach – By means of qualitative study the paper investigates...... the notion that consumers experience anxiety about health outcomes during food choice. Further, by means of structural equation modelling based on two studies with representative samples of Danish consumers, the paper investigates the effects outlined above. Findings – The authors show that anxiety during...

Demand-driven care and hospital choice. Dutch health policy toward demand-driven care: results from a survey into hospital choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Lako, Christiaan J; Rosenau, Pauline

2009-03-01

In the Netherlands, current policy opinion emphasizes demand-driven health care. Central to this model is the view, advocated by some Dutch health policy makers, that patients should be encouraged to be aware of and make use of health quality and health outcomes information in making personal health care provider choices. The success of the new health care system in the Netherlands is premised on this being the case. After a literature review and description of the new Dutch health care system, the adequacy of this demand-driven health policy is tested. The data from a July 2005, self-administered questionnaire survey of 409 patients (response rate of 94%) as to how they choose a hospital are presented. Results indicate that most patients did not choose by actively employing available quality and outcome information. They were, rather, referred by their general practitioner. Hospital choice is highly related to the importance a patient attaches to his or her physician's opinion about a hospital. Some patients indicated that their hospital choice was affected by the reputation of the hospital, by the distance they lived from the hospital, etc. but physician's advice was, by far, the most important factor. Policy consequences are important; the assumptions underlying the demand-driven model of patient health provider choice are inadequate to explain the pattern of observed responses. An alternative, more adequate model is required, one that takes into account the patient's confidence in physician referral and advice.

Pairwise conjoint analysis of activity engagement choice

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wang, Donggen; Oppewal, H.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2000-01-01

Information overload is a well-known problem of conjoint choice models when respondents have to evaluate a large number of attributes and/or attribute levels. In this paper we develop an alternative conjoint modelling approach, called pairwise conjoint analysis. It differs from conventional conjoint

On the choice of schools located outside the walkable ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this study, we consider a school choice problem and formulate it into a mathematical model, allowing it to be simplified and solved. The results obtained are useful for the household in making an objective choice of school for the child to be enrolled among several secondary schools located outside his walkable ...

Educational Choice Regarding Technical Education: Research with Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Kacerauskas, Tomas; Šaparauskas, Jonas

2017-01-01

In first part, the models, theories, mechanisms and presumptions, as well as the ideas of educational choice discourse have been scrutinized. In the second part, the survey on educational choice at Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Lithuania has been presented. The methodology used in this research is a survey of respondents and survey…

Taking dietary habits into account: A computational method for modeling food choices that goes beyond price.

Science.gov (United States)

Beheshti, Rahmatollah; Jones-Smith, Jessica C; Igusa, Takeru

2017-01-01

Computational models have gained popularity as a predictive tool for assessing proposed policy changes affecting dietary choice. Specifically, they have been used for modeling dietary changes in response to economic interventions, such as price and income changes. Herein, we present a novel addition to this type of model by incorporating habitual behaviors that drive individuals to maintain or conform to prior eating patterns. We examine our method in a simulated case study of food choice behaviors of low-income adults in the US. We use data from several national datasets, including the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the USDA, to parameterize our model and develop predictive capabilities in 1) quantifying the influence of prior diet preferences when food budgets are increased and 2) simulating the income elasticities of demand for four food categories. Food budgets can increase because of greater affordability (due to food aid and other nutritional assistance programs), or because of higher income. Our model predictions indicate that low-income adults consume unhealthy diets when they have highly constrained budgets, but that even after budget constraints are relaxed, these unhealthy eating behaviors are maintained. Specifically, diets in this population, before and after changes in food budgets, are characterized by relatively low consumption of fruits and vegetables and high consumption of fat. The model results for income elasticities also show almost no change in consumption of fruit and fat in response to changes in income, which is in agreement with data from the World Bank's International Comparison Program (ICP). Hence, the proposed method can be used in assessing the influences of habitual dietary patterns on the effectiveness of food policies.

Taking dietary habits into account: A computational method for modeling food choices that goes beyond price.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rahmatollah Beheshti

Full Text Available Computational models have gained popularity as a predictive tool for assessing proposed policy changes affecting dietary choice. Specifically, they have been used for modeling dietary changes in response to economic interventions, such as price and income changes. Herein, we present a novel addition to this type of model by incorporating habitual behaviors that drive individuals to maintain or conform to prior eating patterns. We examine our method in a simulated case study of food choice behaviors of low-income adults in the US. We use data from several national datasets, including the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the USDA, to parameterize our model and develop predictive capabilities in 1 quantifying the influence of prior diet preferences when food budgets are increased and 2 simulating the income elasticities of demand for four food categories. Food budgets can increase because of greater affordability (due to food aid and other nutritional assistance programs, or because of higher income. Our model predictions indicate that low-income adults consume unhealthy diets when they have highly constrained budgets, but that even after budget constraints are relaxed, these unhealthy eating behaviors are maintained. Specifically, diets in this population, before and after changes in food budgets, are characterized by relatively low consumption of fruits and vegetables and high consumption of fat. The model results for income elasticities also show almost no change in consumption of fruit and fat in response to changes in income, which is in agreement with data from the World Bank's International Comparison Program (ICP. Hence, the proposed method can be used in assessing the influences of habitual dietary patterns on the effectiveness of food policies.

Expanding the Nudge : Designing Choice Contexts and Choice Contents

OpenAIRE

Grill, Kalle

2014-01-01

To nudge is to design choice contexts in order to improve choice outcomes. Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein emphatically endorse nudging but reject more restrictive means. In contrast, I argue that the behavioral psychology that motivates nudging also motivates what may be called jolting—i.e. the design of choice content. I defend nudging and jolting by distinguishing them from the sometimes oppressive means with which they can be im- plemented, by responding to some common arguments against ...

Reinforcement learning models of risky choice and the promotion of risk-taking by losses disguised as wins in rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, Andrew T; Kirkpatrick, Kimberly

2017-07-01

Risky decisions are inherently characterized by the potential to receive gains or incur losses, and these outcomes have distinct effects on subsequent decision-making. One important factor is that individuals engage in loss-chasing, in which the reception of a loss is followed by relatively increased risk-taking. Unfortunately, the mechanisms of loss-chasing are poorly understood, despite the potential importance for understanding pathological choice behavior. The goal of the present experiment was to illuminate the mechanisms governing individual differences in loss-chasing and risky-choice behaviors. Rats chose between a low-uncertainty outcome that always delivered a variable amount of reward and a high-uncertainty outcome that probabilistically delivered reward. Loss-processing and loss-chasing were assessed in the context of losses disguised as wins (LDWs), which are loss outcomes that are presented along with gain-related stimuli. LDWs have been suggested to interfere with adaptive decision-making in humans and thus potentially increase loss-making. Here, the rats presented with LDWs were riskier, in that they made more choices for the high-uncertainty outcome. A series of nonlinear models were fit to individual rats' data to elucidate the possible psychological mechanisms that best account for individual differences in high-uncertainty choices and loss-chasing behaviors. The models suggested that the rats presented with LDWs were more prone to showing a stay bias following high-uncertainty outcomes compared to rats not presented with LDWs. These results collectively suggest that LDWs acquire conditioned reinforcement properties that encourage continued risk-taking and increase loss-chasing following previous high-risk decisions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Mode choice models' ability to express intention to change travel behaviour considering non-compensatory rules and latent variables

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nobuhiro Sanko

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Disaggregate behaviour choice models have been improved in many aspects, but they are rarely evaluated from the viewpoint of their ability to express intention to change travel behaviour. This study compared various models, including objective and latent models and compensatory and non-compensatory decision-making models. Latent models contain latent factors calculated using the LISREL (linear structural relations model. Non-compensatory models are based on a lexicographic-semiorder heuristic. This paper proposes ‘probability increment’ and ‘joint probability increment’ as indicators for evaluating the ability of these models to express intention to change travel behaviour. The application to commuting travel data in the Chukyo metropolitan area in Japan showed that the appropriate non-compensatory and latent models outperform other models.

SPATIAL SEARCH IN COMMERCIAL FISHING: A DISCRETE CHOICE DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING APPROACH

OpenAIRE

Smith, Martin D.; Provencher, Bill

2003-01-01

We specify a discrete choice dynamic programming model of commercial fishing participation and location choices. This approach allows us to examine how fishermen collect information about resource abundance and whether their behavior is forward-looking.

Disability and multi-state labour force choices with state dependence

OpenAIRE

Oguzoglu, Umut

2010-01-01

I use a dynamic mixed multinomial logit model with unobserved heterogeneity to study the impact of work limiting disabilities on disaggregated labour choices. The first seven waves of the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey are used to investigate this relationship. Findings point out to strong state dependence in employment choices. Further, the impact of disability on employment outcomes is highly significant. Model simulations suggest that high cross and own state depe...

Child Care Choices, Food Choices, and Children’s Obesity Status

OpenAIRE

Mandal, Bidisha; Powell, Lisa M.

2013-01-01

We evaluate the effect of differences in child care and food environments on obesity among children in the age group of four to six years. To address non-random selection of children into different child care settings, we first predict market price of child care and market wages, and then examine how these affect choice of child care settings and the amount of time children spend in different settings. Using panel data models, we analyze the role of care settings on frequency of consumption o...

Multinational consistency of a discrete choice model in quantifying health states for the extended 5-level EQ-5D

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Krabbe, P.F.M.; Devlin, N.J.; Stolk, E.A.; Shah, K.K.; Oppe, M.; Van Hout, B.; Quik, E.H.; Pickard, A.S.; Xie, F.

2013-01-01

Objectives: To investigate the feasibility of choice experiments for EQ-5D-5L states using computer-based data collection, and to examine the consistency of the estimated parameters values derived after modeling the stated preference data across countries in a multinational study. Methods: Similar

Factors affecting food choices of older adults from high and low socioeconomic groups: a discrete choice experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Kamphuis, Carlijn B M; de Bekker-Grob, Esther W; van Lenthe, Frank J

2015-04-01

Healthiness, price, and convenience are typically indicated as important motives for food choices; however, it is largely unknown to what extent older adults from high and low socioeconomic groups differ in these underlying motives. A discrete choice experiment (DCE) is an innovative way to elicit implicit motives for food choices. The aim was to investigate differences in food motives between socioeconomic groups by means of a DCE. A DCE was carried out during a face-to-face interview among older adults as part of the Health and Living Conditions in Eindhoven and surrounding cities (GLOBE) cohort study, The Netherlands. Participants (n = 399; mean age: 63.3 y) were offered a series of choice sets about a usual dinner at home and were asked to choose in each choice set between 2 meals and an opt-out choice, with different combinations of attribute levels. We included 5 meal attributes (taste, healthiness, preparation time, travel time to shops, and price) and 3 or 4 levels for each attribute. Data were analyzed by multinomial logit models. Healthiness, taste, price, and travel time to the grocery store proved to significantly influence older adults' meal decisions; preparation time was not significant. Healthiness was the most important attribute for all of the participants. More highly educated participants rated a healthy and less expensive meal to be more important than did less educated participants. Those with a high income rated a meal that was healthy and very tasteful to be more important than did those with a lower income. Healthiness, taste, price, and travel time to grocery shops influenced older adults' meal decisions. Higher socioeconomic groups valued health more than did lower socioeconomic groups. DCEs represent a promising method to gain insight into the relative importance of motives for food choices. This trial was registered at www.isrctn.com as ISRCTN60293770. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

Ternary choices in repeated games and border collision bifurcations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dal Forno, Arianna; Gardini, Laura; Merlone, Ugo

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► We extend a model of binary choices with externalities to include more alternatives. ► Introducing one more option affects the complexity of the dynamics. ► We find bifurcation structures which where impossible to observe in binary choices. ► A ternary choice cannot simply be considered as a binary choice plus one. - Abstract: Several recent contributions formalize and analyze binary choices games with externalities as those described by Schelling. Nevertheless, in the real world choices are not always binary, and players have often to decide among more than two alternatives. These kinds of interactions are examined in game theory where, starting from the well known rock-paper-scissor game, several other kinds of strategic interactions involving more than two choices are examined. In this paper we investigate how the dynamics evolve introducing one more option in binary choice games with externalities. The dynamics we obtain are always in a stable regime, that is, the structurally stable dynamics are only attracting cycles, but of any possible positive integer as period. We show that, depending on the structure of the game, the dynamics can be quite different from those existing when considering binary choices. The bifurcation structure, due to border collisions, is explained, showing the existence of so-called big-bang bifurcation points.

Have Disability Transfers Caused the Decline in Older Male Labor Force Participation? A Work-Status Rational Choice Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Haveman, Robert H.; Wolfe, Barbara L.

This paper presents a decision-process model for explaining the growth in transfer recipiency (the receipt by working age people of disability income), the choice of work status, and the reduction in labor force participation of older workers. It is hypothesized that the attractiveness of disability income transfer options has led older male…

The Making of Informed Choice in Midwifery: A Feminist Experiment in Care.

Science.gov (United States)

MacDonald, Margaret E

2017-11-15

This paper is about the clinical principle of informed choice-the hallmark feature of the midwifery model of care in Ontario, Canada. Drawing on ethnographic history interviews with midwives, I trace the origins of the idea of informed choice to its roots in the social movement of midwifery in North America in the late 1960s and 1970s. At that time informed choice was not the distinctive feature of midwifery but was deeply embedded what I call midwifery's feminist experiment in care. But as midwifery in Ontario transitioned from a social movement to a full profession within the formal health care system, informed choice was strategically foregrounded in order to make the midwifery model of care legible and acceptable to a skeptical medical profession, conservative law makers, and a mainstream clientele. As mainstream biomedicine now takes up the rhetoric of patient empowerment and informed choice, this paper is at once a nuanced history of the making of the concept and also a critique of the ascendant 'regime of choice' in contemporary health care, inspired by the reflections of the midwives in my study for whom choice is impossible without care.

Research on Multi-leg Inventory Control Based on Passenger Choice

OpenAIRE

Fan, Wei; Su, Qiubo; Ip, Wai Hung

2014-01-01

To remedy the lack of mathematical programming and the Expected Marginal Seat Revenue (EMSR) model for multi-leg seat inventory control, this paper proposes a method based on passenger choice. Except for data about which seats passengers decide to opt for, there is no need to obtain distributions of passengers’ demands or other “a priori” information. The proposed method can discover the real factors that affect passengers’ choices, and then estimate the probabilities of seat choices and the ...

Social choice for one: On the rationality of intertemporal decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Paglieri, Fabio

2016-06-01

When faced with an intertemporal choice between a smaller short-term reward and a larger long-term prize, is opting for the latter always indicative of delay tolerance? And is delay tolerance always to be regarded as a manifestation of self-control, and thus as a rational solution to intertemporal dilemmas? I argue in favor of a negative answer to both questions, based on evidence collected in the delay discounting literature. This highlights the need for a nuanced understanding of rationality in intertemporal choice, to capture also situations in which waiting is not the optimal strategy. This paper suggests that such an understanding is fostered by adopting social choice theory as a promising framework to model intertemporal decision making. Some preliminary results of this approach are discussed, and its potential is compared with a much more studied formal model for intertemporal choice, i.e. game theory. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How stimuli presentation format affects visual attention and choice outcomes in choice experiments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Orquin, Jacob Lund; Mueller Loose, Simone

This study analyses visual attention and part-worth utilities in choice experiments across three different choice stimuli presentation formats. Visual attention and choice behaviour in discrete choice experiments are found to be strongly affected by stimuli presentation format. These results...

Improving navigability on the Kromme River Estuary: A choice ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2013-03-14

Mar 14, 2013 ... logit model, random parameters logit model. INTRODUCTION .... tives, is treated by the RUM as a stochastic, utility-maximising choice (Louviere et ..... comparable to the one estimated for a linear regression model. (the ones ...

The dynamics of decision making in risky choice: An Eye-tracking Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Susann eFiedler

2012-10-01

Full Text Available In the last years, research on risky choice has moved beyond analyzing choices only. Models have been suggested that aim to describe the underlying cognitive processes and some studies have tested process predictions of these models. Prominent approaches are evidence accumulation models such as Decision Field Theory (DFT, simple serial heuristic models such as the Adaptive Toolbox, and connectionist approaches such as the Parallel Constraint Satisfaction Model (PCS. In two studies involving measures of attention and pupil dilation, we investigate hypotheses derived from these models in choices between two gambles with two outcomes each. We show that attention to an outcome of a gamble increases with its probability and its value and that attention shifts towards the subsequently favored gamble after about two thirds of the decision process, indicating a gaze-cascade effect. Information search occurs mostly within gambles, and the direction of search does not change over the course of decision making. Pupil dilation, which reflects both cognitive effort and arousal, increases during the decision process and increases with mean Expected Value. Overall, the results support aspects of automatic integration models for risky choice such as DFT and PCS, but in their current specification none of them can account for the full pattern of results.

The dynamics of decision making in risky choice: an eye-tracking analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Fiedler, Susann; Glöckner, Andreas

2012-01-01

In the last years, research on risky choice has moved beyond analyzing choices only. Models have been suggested that aim to describe the underlying cognitive processes and some studies have tested process predictions of these models. Prominent approaches are evidence accumulation models such as decision field theory (DFT), simple serial heuristic models such as the adaptive toolbox, and connectionist approaches such as the parallel constraint satisfaction (PCS) model. In two studies involving measures of attention and pupil dilation, we investigate hypotheses derived from these models in choices between two gambles with two outcomes each. We show that attention to an outcome of a gamble increases with its probability and its value and that attention shifts toward the subsequently favored gamble after about two thirds of the decision process, indicating a gaze-cascade effect. Information search occurs mostly within-gambles, and the direction of search does not change over the course of decision making. Pupil dilation, which reflects both cognitive effort and arousal, increases during the decision process and increases with mean expected value. Overall, the results support aspects of automatic integration models for risky choice such as DFT and PCS, but in their current specification none of them can account for the full pattern of results.

On the choice of statistical models for estimating occurrence and extinction from animal surveys

Science.gov (United States)

Dorazio, R.M.

2007-01-01

In surveys of natural animal populations the number of animals that are present and available to be detected at a sample location is often low, resulting in few or no detections. Low detection frequencies are especially common in surveys of imperiled species; however, the choice of sampling method and protocol also may influence the size of the population that is vulnerable to detection. In these circumstances, probabilities of animal occurrence and extinction will generally be estimated more accurately if the models used in data analysis account for differences in abundance among sample locations and for the dependence between site-specific abundance and detection. Simulation experiments are used to illustrate conditions wherein these types of models can be expected to outperform alternative estimators of population site occupancy and extinction. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

FUNGIBILITY AND CONSUMER CHOICE: EVIDENCE FROM COMMODITY PRICE SHOCKS*

Science.gov (United States)

Hastings, Justine S.; Shapiro, Jesse M.

2015-01-01

We formulate a test of the fungibility of money based on parallel shifts in the prices of different quality grades of a commodity. We embed the test in a discrete-choice model of product quality choice and estimate the model using panel microdata on gasoline purchases. We find that when gasoline prices rise consumers substitute to lower octane gasoline, to an extent that cannot be explained by income effects. Across a wide range of specifications, we consistently reject the null hypothesis that households treat “gas money” as fungible with other income. We compare the empirical fit of three psychological models of decision-making. A simple model of category budgeting fits the data well, with models of loss aversion and salience both capturing important features of the time series. PMID:26937053

FUNGIBILITY AND CONSUMER CHOICE: EVIDENCE FROM COMMODITY PRICE SHOCKS.

Science.gov (United States)

Hastings, Justine S; Shapiro, Jesse M

2013-11-01

We formulate a test of the fungibility of money based on parallel shifts in the prices of different quality grades of a commodity. We embed the test in a discrete-choice model of product quality choice and estimate the model using panel microdata on gasoline purchases. We find that when gasoline prices rise consumers substitute to lower octane gasoline, to an extent that cannot be explained by income effects. Across a wide range of specifications, we consistently reject the null hypothesis that households treat "gas money" as fungible with other income. We compare the empirical fit of three psychological models of decision-making. A simple model of category budgeting fits the data well, with models of loss aversion and salience both capturing important features of the time series.

Specificity and flexibility of social influence on spatial choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Michael F; Saxon, Marie E; Heslin, Kelsey A

2018-03-21

Rats searched for food in a situation that allowed them to determine which locations contained food after searching a small number of them, but not which of the baited locations contained more-preferred food rather than a less-preferred food. During some experimental trials, the latter information was available from the choices of model rats making choices together with the subject rats, because some of the model rats tended to choose the locations baited with more-preferred food. On the surface, the results suggest that social influence specified the locations of more-preferred food to the subject rats. However, more detailed analysis and data from a second experiment indicate that the social influence can be explained by a general tendency to approach another rat making choices, acquired if rats are exposed to a contingency between social approach and increased foraging success.

A Feminist Critique of Rational-Choice Theories: Implications for Sociology.

Science.gov (United States)

England, Paula

1989-01-01

Provides a feminist critique of rational-choice theory and the interdisciplinary feminist theories of sociology. Applies the separative model of self to four assumptions of the neoclassical economics version of rational-choice theory. Uses research on marital power to illustrate how removing distorting assumptions can help illuminate sociological…

The construction of optimal stated choice experiments theory and methods

CERN Document Server

Street, Deborah J

2007-01-01

The most comprehensive and applied discussion of stated choice experiment constructions available The Construction of Optimal Stated Choice Experiments provides an accessible introduction to the construction methods needed to create the best possible designs for use in modeling decision-making. Many aspects of the design of a generic stated choice experiment are independent of its area of application, and until now there has been no single book describing these constructions. This book begins with a brief description of the various areas where stated choice experiments are applicable, including marketing and health economics, transportation, environmental resource economics, and public welfare analysis. The authors focus on recent research results on the construction of optimal and near-optimal choice experiments and conclude with guidelines and insight on how to properly implement these results. Features of the book include: Construction of generic stated choice experiments for the estimation of main effects...

On portfolio choice with savoring and disappointment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jouini, E.; Karehnke, P.; Napp, C.

We revisit the model proposed by Gollier and Muermann [Gollier C, Muermann A (2010) Optimal choice and beliefs with ex ante savoring and ex post disappointment. Management Sci. 56(8):1272–1284; hereafter, GM]. In the GM model, for a given lottery, agents form anticipated expected payoffs and the set

The role of respondents’ comfort for variance in stated choice surveys

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Emang, Diana; Lundhede, Thomas; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

2017-01-01

they complete surveys correlates with the error variance in stated choice models of their responses. Comfort-related variables are included in the scale functions of the scaled multinomial logit models. The hypothesis was that higher comfort reduces error variance in answers, as revealed by a higher scale...... parameter and vice versa. Information on, e.g., sleep and time since eating (higher comfort) correlated with scale heterogeneity, and produced lower error variance when controlled for in the model. That respondents’ comfort may influence choice behavior suggests that knowledge of the respondents’ activity......Preference elicitation among outdoor recreational users is subject to measurement errors that depend, in part, on survey planning. This study uses data from a choice experiment survey on recreational SCUBA diving to investigate whether self-reported information on respondents’ comfort when...

Measuring the loss of consumer choice in mandatory health programmes using discrete choice experiments.

Science.gov (United States)

Parkinson, Bonny; Goodall, Stephen; Norman, Richard

2013-04-01

Economic evaluation of mandatory health programmes generally do not consider the utility impact of a loss of consumer choice upon implementation, despite evidence suggesting that consumers do value having the ability to choose. The primary aim of this study was to explore whether the utility impact of a loss of consumer choice from implementing mandatory health programmes can be measured using discrete choice experiments (DCEs). Three case studies were used to test the methodology: fortification of bread-making flour with folate, mandatory influenza vaccination of children, and the banning of trans-fats. Attributes and levels were developed from a review of the literature. An orthogonal, fractional factorial design was used to select the profiles presented to respondents to allow estimation of main effects. Overall, each DCE consisted of 64 profiles which were allocated to four versions of 16 profiles. Each choice task compared two profiles, one being voluntary and the other being mandatory, plus a 'no policy' option, thus each respondent was presented with eight choice tasks. For each choice task, respondents were asked which health policy they most preferred and least preferred. Data was analysed using a mixed logit model with correlated coefficients (200 Halton draws). The compensating variation required for introducing a programme on a mandatory basis (versus achieving the same health impacts with a voluntary programme) that holds utility constant was estimated. Responses were provided by 535 participants (a response rate of 83 %). For the influenza vaccination and folate fortification programmes, the results suggested that some level of compensation may be required for introducing the programme on a mandatory basis. Introducing a mandatory influenza vaccination programme required the highest compensation (Australian dollars [A$] 112.75, 95 % CI -60.89 to 286.39) compared with folate fortification (A$18.05, 95 % CI -3.71 to 39.80). No compensation was

Recent evolution of italian households’ equity portfolio choices: an empirical investigation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Attilio Gardini

2013-05-01

Full Text Available We study Italian households’ portfolio choices, with a special focus on equity investments, by analysing jointly time series and cross-sectional portfolio data. We investigate the temporal evolution of the actual composition of Italian households’ investments in order to explain their portfolio choices and to detect possible determinants of the observed disequilibria phenomena. Moreover, we model the stock market participation choice by using probit regression techniques and we test for parameter stability over time. Instability of participation parameters and a peculiar evolution of Italian households’ portfolios pointed out by our concurrent analysis of cross-sectional and time series data seem to confirm the distance of Italian households’ financial decisions from the rational choice predicted by the Markowitz model. In particular, we find that the housing market bubbles interact strongly with the stock market and financial institutions seem to be unable to advise investors suggesting optimal portfolio choices. The deep reason behind these facts may be the bounded education of investors, in particular the low financial literacy of Italian households.

Rhetorical Design Studies: The Art of Making Design Choices Explicit

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Halstrøm, Per L.

2017-01-01

Design has the potential to affect the situations we are in, the choices we make and the beliefs we live by. Being such an affective field, one might expect that canonized design thinking models and methods would be much concerned with how designers can discover arguments for their design choices...

About the choice of Gibbs' potential for modelling of FCC ↔ HCP transformation in FeMnSi-based shape memory alloys

Science.gov (United States)

Evard, Margarita E.; Volkov, Aleksandr E.; Belyaev, Fedor S.; Ignatova, Anna D.

2018-05-01

The choice of Gibbs' potential for microstructural modeling of FCC ↔ HCP martensitic transformation in FeMn-based shape memory alloys is discussed. Threefold symmetry of the HCP phase is taken into account on specifying internal variables characterizing volume fractions of martensite variants. Constraints imposed on model constants by thermodynamic equilibrium conditions are formulated.

The choice of forest site for recreation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Agimass, Fitalew; Lundhede, Thomas; Panduro, Toke Emil

2018-01-01

logit as well as a random parameter logit model. The variables that are found to affect the choice of forest site to a visit for recreation include: forest area, tree species composition, forest density, availability of historical sites, terrain difference, state ownership, and distance. Regarding......In this paper, we investigate the factors that can influence the site choice of forest recreation. Relevant attributes are identified by using spatial data analysis from a questionnaire asking people to indicate their most recent forest visits by pinpointing on a map. The main objectives...

Is there a place for psychology in the framework of rational choice theory?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mladenović Ivan

2010-01-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to discuss psychological aspect of rational choice theory. The standard version of rational choice rests on a kind of psychology, since it operates with mental states. In standard davidsonian version it is claimed that we explain rational actions by stating proper desires and beliefs that caused the action. We will explore two challenges to the standard version that might be called cultural and naturalistic versions of rational choice. Satz and Ferejohn (1994 challenged standard version by stating that we can provide rational-choice explanations without relying too much on psychological assumptions. They argued in favor of moderate externalism, which should replace thin desire-belief model with thick structuralist conception. According to their model moderate externalism is compatible with realism about psychological states, while at the same time those states need not figure in the best rational choice explanations of actions. The focus of rational choice explanations therefore shifts to non-individual and non-psychological entities, such as firms in explaining economic behavior, parties in explaining functioning of democracy, etc. Although there is a place for psychological states within a moderate externalism, those states are not causally relevant. On Pettit’s account desires and beliefs figure in rational choice explanations merely as “standby causes”. They explain resilience of certain behavior, not its actual cause. Quite contrary to standard rational choice theory, the programming model (Pettit, 2002 defines the neurophysiological level as more basic in explaining behavior. This means that higher-level psychological states are causally relevant for certain behavior only if certain lower-level neurophysiological producer obtains. In this paper standard rational choice theory will be defended against culturalist and naturalist criticism.

Promoting educated consumer choices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Edinger, Wieke Willemijn Huizing

2016-01-01

Contemporary EU food information legislation combines and balances two main consumer interests, i.e., a consumer right to information and the freedom of choice, into one single protective standard: informed choice. Although the recent legislative measures quite openly establish a link between...... informed choice and the rather abstract societal norm of “what is good for the consumer,” this does not justify the conclusion that food information legislation has become overly meddlesome in relation to EU consumers and their choice of food. Rather, there has been a gradual maturing of the EU legislator......’s perception of its task from the mere provision of food information to ensuring educated consumer choices. This development is a logical and necessary consequence of the growing complexity of food choices....

Residential location choice of knowledge-workers in a "startup metropolis": the role of amenities, workplace and lifestyle

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frenkel, Amnon; Bendit, Edward; Kaplan, Sigal

2013-01-01

This study investigates the residential location choice of knowledge-workers at the intra-metropolitan level by applying discrete choice models. The models represent housing choices of 833 knowledge-workers in high-technology and financial services and analyze the relative importance of lifestyle...

Economic choices reveal probability distortion in macaque monkeys.

Science.gov (United States)

Stauffer, William R; Lak, Armin; Bossaerts, Peter; Schultz, Wolfram

2015-02-18

Economic choices are largely determined by two principal elements, reward value (utility) and probability. Although nonlinear utility functions have been acknowledged for centuries, nonlinear probability weighting (probability distortion) was only recently recognized as a ubiquitous aspect of real-world choice behavior. Even when outcome probabilities are known and acknowledged, human decision makers often overweight low probability outcomes and underweight high probability outcomes. Whereas recent studies measured utility functions and their corresponding neural correlates in monkeys, it is not known whether monkeys distort probability in a manner similar to humans. Therefore, we investigated economic choices in macaque monkeys for evidence of probability distortion. We trained two monkeys to predict reward from probabilistic gambles with constant outcome values (0.5 ml or nothing). The probability of winning was conveyed using explicit visual cues (sector stimuli). Choices between the gambles revealed that the monkeys used the explicit probability information to make meaningful decisions. Using these cues, we measured probability distortion from choices between the gambles and safe rewards. Parametric modeling of the choices revealed classic probability weighting functions with inverted-S shape. Therefore, the animals overweighted low probability rewards and underweighted high probability rewards. Empirical investigation of the behavior verified that the choices were best explained by a combination of nonlinear value and nonlinear probability distortion. Together, these results suggest that probability distortion may reflect evolutionarily preserved neuronal processing. Copyright © 2015 Stauffer et al.

Price vector effects in choice experiments: an empirical test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanley, Nick; Wright, Robert E.; Adamowicz, Wiktor

2005-01-01

This paper investigates whether the preference and willingness-to-pay estimates obtained from the choice experiment method of estimating non-market values are sensitive to the vector of prices used in the experimental design. We undertake this test in the context of water quality improvements under the European Union's new Water Framework Directive. Using a mixed logit model, which allows for differing scale between the two samples, we find no significant impact of changing the price vector on estimates of preferences or willingness-to-pay. (author) (Choice modelling; Non-market valuation; Design effects; Water Framework Directive)

Politicians' Motivation, Role of Elections, and Policy Choices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P.T. Wrasai (Phongthorn)

2005-01-01

textabstractWe develop a simple two period model to study the importance of motivational differences among politicians in describing the role of elections and explaining policy choices. In our model, politicians differ in their motives of running public office. Good politicians care about policies

Theory of choice in bandit, information sampling and foraging tasks.

Science.gov (United States)

Averbeck, Bruno B

2015-03-01

Decision making has been studied with a wide array of tasks. Here we examine the theoretical structure of bandit, information sampling and foraging tasks. These tasks move beyond tasks where the choice in the current trial does not affect future expected rewards. We have modeled these tasks using Markov decision processes (MDPs). MDPs provide a general framework for modeling tasks in which decisions affect the information on which future choices will be made. Under the assumption that agents are maximizing expected rewards, MDPs provide normative solutions. We find that all three classes of tasks pose choices among actions which trade-off immediate and future expected rewards. The tasks drive these trade-offs in unique ways, however. For bandit and information sampling tasks, increasing uncertainty or the time horizon shifts value to actions that pay-off in the future. Correspondingly, decreasing uncertainty increases the relative value of actions that pay-off immediately. For foraging tasks the time-horizon plays the dominant role, as choices do not affect future uncertainty in these tasks.

Fund choice behavior and estimation of switching models: an experiment*

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anufriev, M.; Bao, T.; Tuinstra, J.

2013-01-01

We run a laboratory experiment that contributes to the finance literature on "return chasing behavior" studying how investors switch between mutual funds driven by past performance of the funds. The subjects in this experiment make discrete choices between several (2, 3 or 4) experimental funds in

Attention and choice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Orquin, Jacob Lund; Mueller Loose, Simone

2013-01-01

satisfaction models. Although most theories were confirmed with regard to certain predictions, none of the theories adequately accounted for the role of attention during decision making. Several observations emerged concerning the drivers and down-stream effects of attention on choice, suggesting......This paper reviews studies on eye movements in decision making, and compares their observations to theoretical predictions concerning the role of attention in decision making. Four decision theories are examined: rational models, bounded rationality, evidence accumulation, and parallel constraint...... that attention processes plays an active role in constructing decisions. So far, decision theories have largely ignored the constructive role of attention by assuming that it is entirely determined by heuristics, or that it consists of stochastic information sampling. The empirical observations reveal...

Self-choice enhances value in reward-seeking in primates.

Science.gov (United States)

Setogawa, Tsuyoshi; Mizuhiki, Takashi; Matsumoto, Narihisa; Akizawa, Fumika; Shidara, Munetaka

2014-03-01

When an individual chooses one item from two or more alternatives, they compare the values of the expected outcomes. The outcome value can be determined by the associated reward amount, the probability of reward, and the workload required to earn the reward. Rational choice theory states that choices are made to maximize rewards over time, and that the same outcome values lead to an equal likelihood of choices. However, the theory does not distinguish between conditions with the same reward value, even when acquired under different circumstances, and does not always accurately describe real behavior. We have found that allowing a monkey to choose a reward schedule endows the schedule with extra value when compared to performance in an identical schedule that is chosen by another agent (a computer here). This behavior is not consistent with pure rational choice theory. Theoretical analysis using a modified temporal-difference learning model showed an enhanced schedule state value by self-choice. These results suggest that an increased reward value underlies the improved performances by self-choice during reward-seeking behavior. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd and the Japan Neuroscience Society. All rights reserved.

Memory-Based Simple Heuristics as Attribute Substitution: Competitive Tests of Binary Choice Inference Models